Tracked - Selected object - Table options - About this table - Torino scale - Removed - Did you know
For the details summary for the objects, I've added a paragraph about tsunamis, based on Near and far-field hazards of asteroid impacts in oceans" March 2019 in Acta Astronautica. and for summary of relevant parts, More details about the splosh, and Asteroid Generated Tsunami: Summary of NASA/NOAA Workshop. The modeling is tricky with few complete examples worked out yet, this is just a rough idea. The links for the effects for the asteroid impacts take you to the Imperial College London / Purdue University Impact Effects calculator.
The section on global effects is based on an article by Michael Paine which is from 2004, but I can't find much more recent that gives a suitable summary.
The estimated time before the next impact of this size on average is based on (based on table 2.1, page 26, of the 2018 Report of the Near-Earth Object Science Defnition Team).
Tracked - Selected object - Table options - About this table - Torino scale - Removed - Did you know
Max number of objects to show:
(0 to show all)
Far future objects
Dates for harmless objects
Information for harmless objects (as links to click on)
Hide objects with first possible impact after
Hide objects smaller than
meters
NOTE: diameters shown in the sentry table are an estimate based on the average brightness when lit up by sunlight (albedo) of asteroids.
Palermo values (how it compares with the background rate)
Objects removed in each past year, and asteroids still in table for each future year
OK Cancel message before randomized warnings
Tracked - Selected object - Table options - About this table - Torino scale - Removed - Did you know
It is using the same data as the more geeky NASA Sentry table which this page accesses using their published Sentry API.
I just present it in a way that is more friendly for less geeky readers. For instance, instead of just giving a "0" for the Torino value, I say in words what it means, "No hazard" and added "- HARMLESS" just to help make it really clear and be easy to see on the page. For the ones with no Torino value, instead of leaving it blank I label them as FAR FUTURE. For the Palermo value I translate it into a number that shows how less likely it is than the background rate.
This is what the geeky Sentry table says if you know how to read it.
I do this to help the many not very techy people who find the official version scary because they read the sensationalist press stories about "NASA Asteroid warnings" and don't see anything to contradict them because it is just a mass of numbers for them.
I've also taken the opportunity to do a unified search for the Selected object that shows you whether an object is in the table, or removed, and if it is neither of those, provides a link you can use to look for its JPL Small-Body database page as well as the list of observations in the IAU Minor Planet center. That's to help for the fake asteroid warnings such as for instance the Daily Express warning that Vesta was "approaching Earth"! I've also added extra links e.g. to show the size of crater, fireball, air burst etc on Bing Maps via the Imperial College London / Purdue University interactive project.
Tracked - Selected object - Table options - About this table - Torino scale - Removed - Did you know
| No Hazard (White Zone) |
0 | The likelihood of a collision is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero. Also applies to small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere as well as infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage. |
| Normal (Green Zone) |
1 | A routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. |
| Meriting Attention by Astronomers (Yellow Zone) |
2 | A discovery, which may become routine with expanded searches, of an object making a somewhat close but not highly unusual pass near the Earth. While meriting attention by astronomers, there is no cause for public attention or public concern as an actual collision is very unlikely. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. |
| 3 | A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away. | |
| 4 | A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of regional devastation. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away. | |
| Threatening (Orange Zone) |
5 | A close encounter posing a serious, but still uncertain threat of regional devastation. Critical attention by astronomers is needed to determine conclusively whether or not a collision will occur. If the encounter is less than a decade away, governmental contingency planning may be warranted. |
| 6 | A close encounter by a large object posing a serious but still uncertain threat of a global catastrophe. Critical attention by astronomers is needed to determine conclusively whether or not a collision will occur. If the encounter is less than three decades away, governmental contingency planning may be warranted. | |
| 7 | A very close encounter by a large object, which if occurring this century, poses an unprecedented but still uncertain threat of a global catastrophe. For such a threat in this century, international contingency planning is warranted, especially to determine urgently and conclusively whether or not a collision will occur. | |
| Certain Collisions (Red Zone) |
8 | A collision is certain, capable of causing localized destruction for an impact over land or possibly a tsunami if close offshore. Such events occur on average between once per 50 years and once per several 1000 years. |
| 9 | A collision is certain, capable of causing unprecedented regional devastation for a land impact or the threat of a major tsunami for an ocean impact. Such events occur on average between once per 10,000 years and once per 100,000 years. | |
| 10 | A collision is certain, capable of causing global climatic catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilization as we know it, whether impacting land or ocean. Such events occur on average once per 100,000 years, or less often. |
For the CNEOS page about it, see:
For the philosophy behind the wording used here:
Tracked - Selected object - Table options - About this table - Torino scale - Removed - Did you knowMax to show: (0 to show all) - shows most recently removed first.
Tracked - Selected object - Table options - About this table - Torino scale - Removed - Did you know
If the Egyptians had build an asteroid detection telescope back at the time of the Great Pyramid of Giza, over 4,500 years ago - it would still be waiting for its first "city killer" asteroid.
Combines photo of Kheops-Pyramid with one of the two Keck ten meter telescopes Linked Hawaiian Telescopes Catch a Nova Surprise (I know the top of a pyramid in Egypt is hardly the best place for a telescope, this is just for visual effect to show the idea). They were only a few key insights away from the industrial revolution in some ways. It's a not impossible alternative history :).