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Robert Walker

No, it can’t, not in the near future. Halley's comet's orbital path doesn't even come close to Earth ever, or any of the other planets. It intersects the ecliptic close to Venus. The Oronids meteor shower consists of debris from its tail blowing away from the sun, which have got into independent orbits around the sun, not the comet itself.

Comet orbits are constantly changing as a result of the influence of the planets. Over millions of years then it is bound to either hit one of the planets, or to be deflected away the solar system, hit the sun or the Earth. That is unless it ends up in one of the few stable positions in our solar system, for instance the Jupiter Trojans.

Right now at least, there is no chance of it hitting any planet.

It’s hard to extrapolate millions of years into the future. We can predict the gravitational influences but comets produce unpredictable jets that change their orbit. Halley’s comet is also evaporating. There’s a summary here of latest views:

“Halley’s overall lifespan is difficult to predict, and opinions do vary. In 1989, Russian astronomers Boris Chirikov and Vitaly Vecheslavovperformed an analysis of 46 apparitions of Halley’s Comet taken from historical records and computer simulations. Their study showed that the comet’s dynamics were chaotic and unpredictable over long timescales, and indicated that its lifetime could be as long as 10 million years.

“In 2002, David C. Jewitt conducted a study that indicated that Halley will likely evaporate, or split in two, within the next few tens of thousands of years. Alternately, Jewitt predicted that it could survive long enough to be ejected from the Solar System entirely within a few hundred thousand years.

“Meanwhile, observations conducted by D.W. Hughes et al. suggests that Halley’s nucleus has been reduced in mass by 80–90% over the last 2000–3000 revolutions (i.e. 150,000 – 230,000 years). By their estimations, it would not be surprising at all if the comet evaporated entirely within the next 300 revolutions or so (approx. 25,000 years).”

What is Halley's Comet? - Universe Today

About the Author

Robert Walker

Robert Walker

Writer of articles on Mars and Space issues - Software Developer of Tune Smithy, Bounce Metronome etc.
Studied at Wolfson College, Oxford
Lives in Isle of Mull
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