Well the Kessler syndrome doesn't have to be a rapid process. It's not like in a movie, that one satellite disintegrates and in quick succession they are all gone. It just needs to have more of the tiny particles created than are destroyed in the atmosphere, by a few percent, and over decades it just builds up and up. The Kessler Syndrome Explained
So in that sense, it could have started already. And indeed, perhaps it has, in a very slow way. A study in 2005 came to the conclusion that even if we do nothing, the population of the 10 cm and larger objects will increase through collisions more rapidly than they are removed by the atmosphere Orbital Debris Radar Measurements
So - hitting a big satellite would just boost it forward to a later stage in the process. In that case the obvious target, apparently, is the Envisat satellite, at eight tonnes.
At eight tonnes is quite a major job to remove it.
It's also got an orbit high enough so it won't decay for 150 years, so a long term problem. So if it got broken up - it would become lots of smaller pieces of debris that would remain a problem for space travel for 150 years.
This and another satellite ESR1 are the two top priorities to remove from LEO. 'Urgent need' to remove space debris - BBC News
This shows how the numbers of objects in space is increasing:
To get to a situation where the amount of debris is decreasing rather than increasing, they've calculated we need to remove around 10 objects a year. With some objects higher priority to remove depending on their orbit. For details see the ESA page: Debris removal
I can't imagine that any nation would want to make things worse deliberately. It's not like it's a short term thing that could be worth doing for some short term aim.
It would make space travel harder for well over a century, or longer. Or lead to very expensive clean up operations in space.
The way things are going, we come to rely more and more on satellites, even countries that can't afford to launch spacecraft themeselves often piggyback on other launches, including cubesats etc. Any country and even private individuals e.g. taking part in kickstarters will be affected. It's hard to see anyone concluding that their country won't need access to LEO for the next 150 years.
Even the Chinese surely weren't deliberately attempting to trigger a Kessler syndrome when they hit a satellite deliberately and broke it into many pieces. They were testing the ability to disable one other satellite. 2007 Chinese anti-satellite missile test But in process of doing so broke it up into 150,000 small bits that endanger everyone including their own spacecraft and satellites, so it seems a rather short sighted approach - anyway they haven't repeated the test since then.
Of course, could be some crazed individuals who might want to do something like this - like for no good reason, nobody benefits from it - just take down the whole world with them. Luckily not yet anywhere near the level of technology where that would be possible at present or the reasonable near future. (Thanks Tim Cole for pointing this out in comment).
Lots of ideas for ways to get rid of it. Nets, lasers, solar sails, ...
Space Junk Clean Up: 7 Wild Ways to Destroy Orbital Debris
It certainly can be done and there are some people taking it seriously at least. It's more a matter of how much we spend on it. As it gets easier to launch things into space - we'll get more launches of course, but also, will get easier to remove them.
Also nowadays new spacecraft often are designed with the capability to de-orbit at the end of their life, or to move into "graveyard orbits" if launched to a place like GEO where you can't de-orbit easily. So that's also part of the solution.
So in that sense, it could have started already. And indeed, perhaps it has, in a very slow way. A study in 2005 came to the conclusion that even if we do nothing, the population of the 10 cm and larger objects will increase through collisions more rapidly than they are removed by the atmosphere Orbital Debris Radar Measurements
So - hitting a big satellite would just boost it forward to a later stage in the process. In that case the obvious target, apparently, is the Envisat satellite, at eight tonnes.
Envisat - Earth Online - ESA - largest civilian Earth observatory at 8 tonnes, now inactive, lost communications in 2012.
Is top priority for removal from LEO because it's at a height where orbital debris frequently passes close to it, and if it breaks up, the debris it causes would last for 150 years and likely to hit other satellites and break them up also so accelerating the Kessler syndrome (which some would say, has already started).
At eight tonnes is quite a major job to remove it.
It's also got an orbit high enough so it won't decay for 150 years, so a long term problem. So if it got broken up - it would become lots of smaller pieces of debris that would remain a problem for space travel for 150 years.
This and another satellite ESR1 are the two top priorities to remove from LEO. 'Urgent need' to remove space debris - BBC News
This shows how the numbers of objects in space is increasing:
Analysis and prediction
To get to a situation where the amount of debris is decreasing rather than increasing, they've calculated we need to remove around 10 objects a year. With some objects higher priority to remove depending on their orbit. For details see the ESA page: Debris removal
I can't imagine that any nation would want to make things worse deliberately. It's not like it's a short term thing that could be worth doing for some short term aim.
It would make space travel harder for well over a century, or longer. Or lead to very expensive clean up operations in space.
The way things are going, we come to rely more and more on satellites, even countries that can't afford to launch spacecraft themeselves often piggyback on other launches, including cubesats etc. Any country and even private individuals e.g. taking part in kickstarters will be affected. It's hard to see anyone concluding that their country won't need access to LEO for the next 150 years.
Even the Chinese surely weren't deliberately attempting to trigger a Kessler syndrome when they hit a satellite deliberately and broke it into many pieces. They were testing the ability to disable one other satellite. 2007 Chinese anti-satellite missile test But in process of doing so broke it up into 150,000 small bits that endanger everyone including their own spacecraft and satellites, so it seems a rather short sighted approach - anyway they haven't repeated the test since then.
Of course, could be some crazed individuals who might want to do something like this - like for no good reason, nobody benefits from it - just take down the whole world with them. Luckily not yet anywhere near the level of technology where that would be possible at present or the reasonable near future. (Thanks Tim Cole for pointing this out in comment).
Lots of ideas for ways to get rid of it. Nets, lasers, solar sails, ...
Space Junk Clean Up: 7 Wild Ways to Destroy Orbital Debris
It certainly can be done and there are some people taking it seriously at least. It's more a matter of how much we spend on it. As it gets easier to launch things into space - we'll get more launches of course, but also, will get easier to remove them.
Also nowadays new spacecraft often are designed with the capability to de-orbit at the end of their life, or to move into "graveyard orbits" if launched to a place like GEO where you can't de-orbit easily. So that's also part of the solution.
About the Author
Robert Walker
Writer of articles on Mars and Space issues - Software Developer of Tune Smithy, Bounce Metronome etc.Studied at Wolfson College, Oxford
Lives in Isle of Mull
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