Well, you asked me to answer, I think the answer is not at all in the near future. Not on the ground. But could have humans living in orbit around Mars controlling telerobotic avatars on the surface.
That could be rather cool. Because they would get to experience the surface of Mars far better via telerobotics than in a clumsy spacesuit. Safer also. In a shirt sleeves environment in orbit, not going to die if you stumble and tear your spacesuit, worst thing happens is that you robot on the surface gets damaged. And streaming video back to Earth of everything you see on the surface, and whatever you hear, and things you feel also, via haptic feedback.
This shows a likely orbit for an early expedition - it is a spectacular orbit for the crew also - a highly eccentric Molniya sun synchronous orbit, comes in close to the poles, nearest point is over opposite sides of Mars twice a day always on the sunny side
Here is what it's like:
That was speeded up a hundred times.
Here it is in real time during the fastest part of the orbit as they come close to Mars
- you'd have plenty of time to do serious science during close by telepresence. And even at the furthest point light delay is only 147 ms, so you could continue, e.g. to drive rovers on the surface in near real time, throughout the orbit.
I think would be a great orbit to live in, and might well help with some of the "homesickness" of missing Earth - Mars looks far more Earth like from orbit than it would from the surface. And exploring the surface again far more Earth like via telepresence.
Then they'd explore the surface with immersive VR technology like this, but higher resolution and with haptic feedback so you can feel what you are touching.
You can adjust the colours in the telepresence link so that the Martian skies are blue if you like - they often do with the pictures taken on Mars - because then it is easier for humans to discern colours.
And explore Mars with remote controlled rovers, vehicles and flying machines like this entomopter
Reason for doing this is
So - whatever you think about whether humans will or should eventually land on the surface of Mars, this is likely to be the first human experience of Mars from close up, I think.
I know that neither NASA, nor Mars One nor SpaceX are exploring ideas like this for human missions to Mars. But scientist have proposed them a fair number of times - the Russians, Lockheed Martin, Robert Zubrin as I said as a preliminary mission, and others.
And the thing is - as the time approaches when it is possible to land humans on Mars - I just don't see how any of the existing ideas could pass planetary protection. They say they will comply - but how can you protect Mars from contamination with Earth life if there are habitats for life on the surface (as many now think) and you have a significant risk of a hard landing involving a human occupied spaceship?
Well we will find out - as future unfolds, but I'd be astonished myself if they are able to get together a method of landing humans on the surface of Mars that doesn't have significant planetary protection issues.
While an orbital mission is one you can do with far less risk of contaminating Mars. So myself anyway, I'm reasonably confident that that will come first.
So - more exploration using rovers. Then maybe human flybys, then orbital missions to explore it in depth - making more and more use of telerobotics - and depending what we find on Mars, maybe not send anyone to the surface for a long time to come.
I can't see Elon Musk's proposed surface mission being approved by the international community by the 2020s.
BTW he first put forward a basic idea around 2001 and then he was hoping to land a demonstration greenhouse (no people) on Mars in 2004/5. I think that was before SpaceX (yes, that was in 2002) Elon Musk's Mission to Mars | WIRED . and Golden Oldie: Elon Musk from 10-24-01 replayed Tuesday, 10-28-14
But - anyway - it just shows that you can't say, as some do in internet discussions, that because he wants to do it, that it will of course happen.
So - probably wouldn't be too surprising if it got put back a few decades, or I think myself, turned into a telerobotic mission to orbit.
For the problems of introducing life to Mars with a surface mission, see Robert Walker's answer to Has NASA purposefully sent any life forms to other planets?
See also
Is it worth it to send humans to Mars to build a settlement? Is it practical and possible given the timeline and budget?
How difficult would it be to colonize mars? How soon could such an endeavor happen? Is there any utility in doing so?
Are there any plans for terraforming Mars in the foreseeable future?
What are the thoughts on the Mars One plan for settling humans on Mars?
What are some major ethical issues that are essential yet not actively discussed about with regards to sending astronauts on space exploration flights?
What would it be like to live on Mars?
That could be rather cool. Because they would get to experience the surface of Mars far better via telerobotics than in a clumsy spacesuit. Safer also. In a shirt sleeves environment in orbit, not going to die if you stumble and tear your spacesuit, worst thing happens is that you robot on the surface gets damaged. And streaming video back to Earth of everything you see on the surface, and whatever you hear, and things you feel also, via haptic feedback.
This shows a likely orbit for an early expedition - it is a spectacular orbit for the crew also - a highly eccentric Molniya sun synchronous orbit, comes in close to the poles, nearest point is over opposite sides of Mars twice a day always on the sunny side
Here is what it's like:
This is done in Orbiter, and shows the orbit - it has a futuristic spacecraft, but I hope to do it again in near future with a tethered assembly of e.g. Space-X Dragon + fuel tank spinning for Mars gravity - or some other similar arrangement.
It's a "Mars capture orbit" - so the delta v to get into it is actually less than you need to get to the Moon. They could have put something like the lunar module into this orbit - and returned to Earth - with a mission similar to the Apollo ones - that is - except of course the humans couldn't survive the six month journey there, with the Apollo technology.
That was speeded up a hundred times.
Here it is in real time during the fastest part of the orbit as they come close to Mars
- you'd have plenty of time to do serious science during close by telepresence. And even at the furthest point light delay is only 147 ms, so you could continue, e.g. to drive rovers on the surface in near real time, throughout the orbit.
I think would be a great orbit to live in, and might well help with some of the "homesickness" of missing Earth - Mars looks far more Earth like from orbit than it would from the surface. And exploring the surface again far more Earth like via telepresence.
Then they'd explore the surface with immersive VR technology like this, but higher resolution and with haptic feedback so you can feel what you are touching.
You can adjust the colours in the telepresence link so that the Martian skies are blue if you like - they often do with the pictures taken on Mars - because then it is easier for humans to discern colours.
And explore Mars with remote controlled rovers, vehicles and flying machines like this entomopter
Reason for doing this is
- First when exploring a planet, if the main thing you are interested in is the possible past and present biology - then it makes far more sense to explore it from orbit than on the surface.
That's the only way to be sure you don't introduce Earth life to the surface and confuse the searches.- Far safer, no need for the dangerous landing on the surface.
Humans with telepresence robots can explore dangerous and inaccessible parts of Mars which you could never send a human to, in an environment where a stumble that damages your spacesuit could be fatal - Many other advantages. But apart from anything else, is also far cheaper.
Even Robert Zubrin has envisioned a preliminary mission that uses telerobotics in his double athena program.
So - whatever you think about whether humans will or should eventually land on the surface of Mars, this is likely to be the first human experience of Mars from close up, I think.
I know that neither NASA, nor Mars One nor SpaceX are exploring ideas like this for human missions to Mars. But scientist have proposed them a fair number of times - the Russians, Lockheed Martin, Robert Zubrin as I said as a preliminary mission, and others.
And the thing is - as the time approaches when it is possible to land humans on Mars - I just don't see how any of the existing ideas could pass planetary protection. They say they will comply - but how can you protect Mars from contamination with Earth life if there are habitats for life on the surface (as many now think) and you have a significant risk of a hard landing involving a human occupied spaceship?
Well we will find out - as future unfolds, but I'd be astonished myself if they are able to get together a method of landing humans on the surface of Mars that doesn't have significant planetary protection issues.
While an orbital mission is one you can do with far less risk of contaminating Mars. So myself anyway, I'm reasonably confident that that will come first.
So - more exploration using rovers. Then maybe human flybys, then orbital missions to explore it in depth - making more and more use of telerobotics - and depending what we find on Mars, maybe not send anyone to the surface for a long time to come.
I can't see Elon Musk's proposed surface mission being approved by the international community by the 2020s.
BTW he first put forward a basic idea around 2001 and then he was hoping to land a demonstration greenhouse (no people) on Mars in 2004/5. I think that was before SpaceX (yes, that was in 2002) Elon Musk's Mission to Mars | WIRED . and Golden Oldie: Elon Musk from 10-24-01 replayed Tuesday, 10-28-14
But - anyway - it just shows that you can't say, as some do in internet discussions, that because he wants to do it, that it will of course happen.
So - probably wouldn't be too surprising if it got put back a few decades, or I think myself, turned into a telerobotic mission to orbit.
For the problems of introducing life to Mars with a surface mission, see Robert Walker's answer to Has NASA purposefully sent any life forms to other planets?
See also
Is it worth it to send humans to Mars to build a settlement? Is it practical and possible given the timeline and budget?
How difficult would it be to colonize mars? How soon could such an endeavor happen? Is there any utility in doing so?
Are there any plans for terraforming Mars in the foreseeable future?
What are the thoughts on the Mars One plan for settling humans on Mars?
What are some major ethical issues that are essential yet not actively discussed about with regards to sending astronauts on space exploration flights?
What would it be like to live on Mars?
About the Author
Robert Walker
Writer of articles on Mars and Space issues - Software Developer of Tune Smithy, Bounce Metronome etc.Studied at Wolfson College, Oxford
Lives in Isle of Mull
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