No, I wouldn’t take a seat if they paid me a billion dollars, not on that timetable.

As it happens I’m also a bit claustrophobic, on the other hand I did try the Apollo 11 simulation on the HT Vie and I didn’t feel claustrophobic as long as I had that tiny window with the vast view outside. So if it had windows, then I might be able to handle the claustrophobia. But probably wouldn’t pass the tests for claustrophobia where you have to sit locked up in a bag with no windows / light. I don’t know.

But that’s not the reason. I just don’t think it is safe - not in the very same year that they launch the first Dragon 2 unmanned, next mission is a Dragon 2 manned, then in the same year the Falcon Heavy first launch, then finally Falcon Heavy + Dragon 2 + life support not tested for more than a few hours probably in space.

And all that with a company that has had one of its rockets explode each year for the last two years and has had issues with quality control - though they say they have fixed those - is everything fixed? And with my rocket and spaceship made by people who often do 80 hour working weeks, and sometimes have done unsafe things like stand on parts they shouldn’t - and also they keep tweaking the design, like a software project.

I’d also be concerned about their practice of loading the fuel after the crew, necessary because of the design of the rocket. That’s never been done before on a crewed spacecraft, and their last rocket that did this blew up in the middle of the refueling sequence. Fixed that but again might there be another way it could happen which they haven’t spotted yet? You’d be sitting in the rocket waiting while they load the fuel knowing that if something went wrong the rocket could explode and (if everything went right) you’d be propelled away from it in their escape system hoping it works as expected.

And if something went wrong with the life support on the way to the Moon, say a gradual carbon dioxide build up, we’d all be dead by the end of the mission and nobody on Earth could do anything to help except give us advice. Again with their less than stellar record on quality control I’d wonder, how well checked is the life support system? It’s been tested on the ground and worked, and by then, tested in space on shorter missions, but - is it the same in space, and what about all the components, is every single one going to work flawlessly, what if some component not quite up to full spec has somehow got through their tests?

I’m not that much of a risk taker anyway. I’d never do base jumping. I think that nobody should fly into space if they aren’t at least willing to do base jumping (even if they don’t try it) - you need that kind of a temperament / cool head / acceptance of risk. So far though they have flown tourists to the ISS, you couldn’t really say that even the Soyuz TMA is safer than base jumping, except, that you only do it once normally while base jumping you’d do over and over.

I think I might just be able to fly on the Soyuz TMA. If I could manage the claustrophobia and if it only flew to the ISS. It would be a small risk but not a huge one as these things go for a once in a lifetime thing like that. It would be like doing base jumping just once as a one off thing in your entire life. If it was important enough for some reason, and I was really well prepared, perhaps I’d do it. But I might find the ISS claustrophobic and spend all my time in the Cupola :).

But not on a SpaceX rocket. No way. Not until it is far better tested than now.

BTW I’d have some similar issues with the SLS, especially if they do their first crewed mission around the Moon on the very first launch of the SLS. Even with the second. I’d not have the same concerns about e.g. part inspection / quality control. They wouldn’t be relying on clever uses of low cost components to replace the higher cost ones traditionally used, as SpaceX do. But big programs like that did lead to the Space Shuttle which crashed twice. So - how reliable would it be? Okay for test pilots who assess such risks and work with them all their life - and they won’t be sending commercial passengers on the SLS. I’m not saying they shouldn’t do it, but I wouldn’t fly on it even if you paid me a billion dollars again. Just not my kind of thing :). I wouldn’t fly on Apollo 11 either, assuming that I qualified as a test pilot etc which obviously someone like me wouldn’t. Only very few people have those kinds of capabilities / temperament.

But I wonder if the SpaceX passengers are cool headed risk takers who are okay with rather high levels of personal physical risk, like test pilots? Also there’s a meta thing there too. If they all die on the journey - probably everyone would criticize SpaceX for doing too much too soon. They are gambling a lot therefore on it succeeding - if nobody dies on that first mission they will get a lot of praise for it, and then fly again and again, but maybe quite soon they do get that accident with everyone dying and everyone turns against them and says “why didn’t you foresee that?” Even though Elon Musk has been quite upfront about it, that everyone could die. But it actually happening in reality is different from him saying it could happen. We are used to movies like Star Trek where time after time the heroes and heroines will be told they risk all dying, and then at the last second they find a way to survive. But real life isn’t like that.

So I wonder a bit how realistic the space enthusiasts are who are so keen on this sort of thing - have they really thought it through to that possible future as an actuality - where they all die as for the two Space Shuttle missions? It would be especially devastating if two of the crew are passengers who paid to fly to the Moon somehow. Ordinary folk who aren’t test pilots. When the Virgin Galactic test pilot died it was very sad. However it was easier to take somehow as that is someone who has decided as a job to do this very dangerous thing of test piloting spacecraft.

On the plus side the FAA will have to approve it which may help but then of course they also passed the Space Shuttle…

So no, not for me. See also my answer to Does SpaceX have the capability to send people around the moon?