Well, the Moon is stabilized through tidal effects with one face always turned towards the Earth. So it's not going to change its rotation rate unless it also changes the length of the lunar month.
As time goes on, the Moon gradually retreats from the Earth, at about the same rate that your finger nails grow - and the month gets slightly longer
Why the Moon is getting further away
So - if it makes any difference - it's to the length of the lunar month. And would be a complex calculation - involving things such as - effect of rockets landing on the Moon, transfer of mass from Earth to Moon etc. Actual transfer of material from one part of the Moon to another I wouldn't have thought would have made much difference.
Larger scale colonization methods such as impacting comets on the Moon - or mining the Moon for ice - obviously more effect also.
So anyway sorry I don't know where to begin to answer the question - but maybe this is useful for anyone else wanting to answer it.
Surely not a big effect anyway.
The lunar month is changing all the time, just slightly, so let's look at that:
The Earth and Moon system has a combined angular momentum depending on the masses of each and the distance between them.
The Moon' spin rate is coupled to the month. But Earth's spin rate is faster - our day is longer then the month. The tides raised by the Moon in the Earth's oceans and also land cause a dragging effect - that's because the tides are not exactly below the Moon but are carried slightly ahead of it by the Earth's rotation - so the Moon's gravity acting on the tides slows down the Earth's spin rate - and this also increases the length of the lunar month - and forces the Moon further and further away from the Earth.
To add some figures to this, then originally the Earth's "day" was just six hours long. The Moon orbited perhaps 25,000 kilometers from the Earth, giving it a "month" of about 15 hours.
As to what happens next - well for the next billion years or so then the month gets longer and day gets longer for a while longer as well.
But when the sun goes red giant, nobody knows for sure as no red giant has been observed during this critical phase when the sun blows off envelopes of gas.
Earth's Moon destined to disintegrate - Page on space.com
If the Earth Moon system orbits inside the outer shell of the red giant - then the Moon will spiral in quite rapidly on geological timescale - until eventually it hits the "Roche limit" and is so close to the Earth that it disintegrates, leaving Earth with a ring system like Saturn.
But that won't last long as the dust particles would soon get stripped by the solar wind.
If the sun blows off enough of its envelope of gas so that the Earth orbits outside its atmosphere, then tas time goes on - the lunar month continues to get longer, the Earth's day gets longer - and far enough in the future - if the Earth moon system survives after our sun goes red giant, then the day and month eventually become the same.
Then on longer timescales than that, the sun drags on the system and the lunar month starts getting shorter again, and Moon approaches closer to the Earth, and eventually, a very long way into the future, the Moon hits the Earth.
Earth will become synchronous with the Moon, day same length as its month, perhaps around 50 billion years from now, with a month of around 1000 hours, or 42 days, rough calculation.
However - not sure that is taking account of the way the Earth loses it's ocean a billion years or so from now - without its ocean - then the tidal effects still continue as we have Earth tides also in the crust - but it's a slower more subtle effect.
Anyway over a long enough time scale that would happen.
Then gradually through tidal effects of the Sun, the Earth Moon system loses angular momentum. Which - paradoxically perhaps - means that the Moon spirals inwards. Eventually a very long way into the future, the Moon gets close enough to be within the Roche limit, and turns into a ring system around the Earth, like Saturn.
You now have a rapidly spinning Earth - and on even longer timescales then the sun acts on this through tidal drag and slows it down again eventually leading to a tidally locked Earth always facing the sun. And the ring system eventually also evolves and dissipates as will happen with Saturn.
Fact or Fiction: The Days (and Nights) Are Getting Longer
Orbit of the Moon
Earth orbit calculator
Seems pretty unlikely we would do much to hasten this process significantly.
But on a micro scale we might do things that change the length of the lunar month just slightly - and so - over long time periods - change the position of the Moon by small amounts.
To make a difference to the lunar month - then we can either change the angular momentum of the whole system - or else - change distribution.
If we moved mass from the Moon to the Earth for instance - did space mining in a big way - there are ideas for instance to set up a continuous conveyer belt of material from the Moon to the Earth and back to the Moon again. The whole thing is fed by - basically - the angular momentum of the Earth Moon system - and it requires no fuel so long as you have something on the Earth continually digging up lunar material and putting it into the conveyer belt at that end.
It's not a physical conveyer belt - but rather - a couple of rotating momentum exchange tether systems, with the lunar one synchronous with the surface of the Moon each time the end closest to the Moon approaches its surface, see Momentum exchange tether.
This would conserve angular momentum - but some of the angular momentum could end up in low earth orbit so orbiting the Earth quickly. Or speed up the Earth's day.
Simply increasing or reducing the mass of the Moon wouldn't change its month directly as the orbital period of a planet or moon does not depend on its mass.
So - depends on the details of how the material is removed from the Moon. In the cislunar momentum exchange tether - then the material is just put into a receptacle - and doesn't need to be given any initial momentum away from the Moon - so it would have no effect on the length of the month. In other systems - material sent into space using linear accelerators at great speed - would be changing the lunar month depending on direction you fire the material - but only by tiny amounts.
Then - using rockets to land material on the Moon - that's sending materials away from the rockets with exhaust velocities - and this time, it can potentially change the overall angular momentum of the entire system - depending on what direction the rocket exhausts point during the maneuvers - and depending on whether the exhaust material remains in the Earth Moon system and eventually returns to the Earth - or escapes it altogether. If the rocket exhausts eventually hit the Earth or Moon - then it is just material transfer and angular momentum is conserved, but if they escape altogether it's an angular momentum change.
Similarly every time we launch an interplanetary spacecraft - this changes the overall angular momentum of the Earth Moon system - and presumably has some effect on the length of the month - or on the length of the Earth day - or both - depending how it is done. Most of them just change length of Earth day and would only make a difference to the Moon indirectly slightly changing tidal effects on the Moon very very long term - but if they involve lunar flybys could make a difference to the lunar month.
If we import materials from elsewhere in the solar system again that's a change in angular momentum.
If we impact comets and asteroids on the Moon - or use NEOs for space mining or to make space habitats in orbit around the Earth - that's going to be a change also, and surely a somewhat larger effect.
There are so many effects here - and I don't know how you can find out which is the most significant one. I expect most or maybe even all of these effects are so small you have no chance of predicting any difference in our observations of the Moon as a result and measuring them. But on the other had we do have very precise measurements of the Moon's orbit and orbital distance..
As for working them out theoretically, I think needs a detailed calculation of each one. Don't know if anyone has done the calculation.
As time goes on, the Moon gradually retreats from the Earth, at about the same rate that your finger nails grow - and the month gets slightly longer
Why the Moon is getting further away
So - if it makes any difference - it's to the length of the lunar month. And would be a complex calculation - involving things such as - effect of rockets landing on the Moon, transfer of mass from Earth to Moon etc. Actual transfer of material from one part of the Moon to another I wouldn't have thought would have made much difference.
Larger scale colonization methods such as impacting comets on the Moon - or mining the Moon for ice - obviously more effect also.
So anyway sorry I don't know where to begin to answer the question - but maybe this is useful for anyone else wanting to answer it.
Surely not a big effect anyway.
The lunar month is changing all the time, just slightly, so let's look at that:
HOW THE ANGULAR MOMENTUM WORKS
The Earth and Moon system has a combined angular momentum depending on the masses of each and the distance between them.
The Moon' spin rate is coupled to the month. But Earth's spin rate is faster - our day is longer then the month. The tides raised by the Moon in the Earth's oceans and also land cause a dragging effect - that's because the tides are not exactly below the Moon but are carried slightly ahead of it by the Earth's rotation - so the Moon's gravity acting on the tides slows down the Earth's spin rate - and this also increases the length of the lunar month - and forces the Moon further and further away from the Earth.
To add some figures to this, then originally the Earth's "day" was just six hours long. The Moon orbited perhaps 25,000 kilometers from the Earth, giving it a "month" of about 15 hours.
As to what happens next - well for the next billion years or so then the month gets longer and day gets longer for a while longer as well.
But when the sun goes red giant, nobody knows for sure as no red giant has been observed during this critical phase when the sun blows off envelopes of gas.
Earth's Moon destined to disintegrate - Page on space.com
IF THE EARTH ORBITS INSIDE THE EXTENDED ATMOSPHERE OF THE RED GIANT SUN
If the Earth Moon system orbits inside the outer shell of the red giant - then the Moon will spiral in quite rapidly on geological timescale - until eventually it hits the "Roche limit" and is so close to the Earth that it disintegrates, leaving Earth with a ring system like Saturn.
But that won't last long as the dust particles would soon get stripped by the solar wind.
IF THE EARTH ORBITS OUTSIDE THE EXTENDED ATMOSPHERE OF THE RED GIANT SUN
If the sun blows off enough of its envelope of gas so that the Earth orbits outside its atmosphere, then tas time goes on - the lunar month continues to get longer, the Earth's day gets longer - and far enough in the future - if the Earth moon system survives after our sun goes red giant, then the day and month eventually become the same.
Then on longer timescales than that, the sun drags on the system and the lunar month starts getting shorter again, and Moon approaches closer to the Earth, and eventually, a very long way into the future, the Moon hits the Earth.
Earth will become synchronous with the Moon, day same length as its month, perhaps around 50 billion years from now, with a month of around 1000 hours, or 42 days, rough calculation.
However - not sure that is taking account of the way the Earth loses it's ocean a billion years or so from now - without its ocean - then the tidal effects still continue as we have Earth tides also in the crust - but it's a slower more subtle effect.
Anyway over a long enough time scale that would happen.
Then gradually through tidal effects of the Sun, the Earth Moon system loses angular momentum. Which - paradoxically perhaps - means that the Moon spirals inwards. Eventually a very long way into the future, the Moon gets close enough to be within the Roche limit, and turns into a ring system around the Earth, like Saturn.
You now have a rapidly spinning Earth - and on even longer timescales then the sun acts on this through tidal drag and slows it down again eventually leading to a tidally locked Earth always facing the sun. And the ring system eventually also evolves and dissipates as will happen with Saturn.
Fact or Fiction: The Days (and Nights) Are Getting Longer
Orbit of the Moon
Earth orbit calculator
WHAT WOULD HAPPEN TO THE ANGULAR MOMENTUM FROM HUMAN ACTIVITIES
Seems pretty unlikely we would do much to hasten this process significantly.
But on a micro scale we might do things that change the length of the lunar month just slightly - and so - over long time periods - change the position of the Moon by small amounts.
To make a difference to the lunar month - then we can either change the angular momentum of the whole system - or else - change distribution.
If we moved mass from the Moon to the Earth for instance - did space mining in a big way - there are ideas for instance to set up a continuous conveyer belt of material from the Moon to the Earth and back to the Moon again. The whole thing is fed by - basically - the angular momentum of the Earth Moon system - and it requires no fuel so long as you have something on the Earth continually digging up lunar material and putting it into the conveyer belt at that end.
It's not a physical conveyer belt - but rather - a couple of rotating momentum exchange tether systems, with the lunar one synchronous with the surface of the Moon each time the end closest to the Moon approaches its surface, see Momentum exchange tether.
This would conserve angular momentum - but some of the angular momentum could end up in low earth orbit so orbiting the Earth quickly. Or speed up the Earth's day.
Simply increasing or reducing the mass of the Moon wouldn't change its month directly as the orbital period of a planet or moon does not depend on its mass.
So - depends on the details of how the material is removed from the Moon. In the cislunar momentum exchange tether - then the material is just put into a receptacle - and doesn't need to be given any initial momentum away from the Moon - so it would have no effect on the length of the month. In other systems - material sent into space using linear accelerators at great speed - would be changing the lunar month depending on direction you fire the material - but only by tiny amounts.
Then - using rockets to land material on the Moon - that's sending materials away from the rockets with exhaust velocities - and this time, it can potentially change the overall angular momentum of the entire system - depending on what direction the rocket exhausts point during the maneuvers - and depending on whether the exhaust material remains in the Earth Moon system and eventually returns to the Earth - or escapes it altogether. If the rocket exhausts eventually hit the Earth or Moon - then it is just material transfer and angular momentum is conserved, but if they escape altogether it's an angular momentum change.
Similarly every time we launch an interplanetary spacecraft - this changes the overall angular momentum of the Earth Moon system - and presumably has some effect on the length of the month - or on the length of the Earth day - or both - depending how it is done. Most of them just change length of Earth day and would only make a difference to the Moon indirectly slightly changing tidal effects on the Moon very very long term - but if they involve lunar flybys could make a difference to the lunar month.
If we import materials from elsewhere in the solar system again that's a change in angular momentum.
If we impact comets and asteroids on the Moon - or use NEOs for space mining or to make space habitats in orbit around the Earth - that's going to be a change also, and surely a somewhat larger effect.
There are so many effects here - and I don't know how you can find out which is the most significant one. I expect most or maybe even all of these effects are so small you have no chance of predicting any difference in our observations of the Moon as a result and measuring them. But on the other had we do have very precise measurements of the Moon's orbit and orbital distance..
As for working them out theoretically, I think needs a detailed calculation of each one. Don't know if anyone has done the calculation.
About the Author
Robert Walker
Writer of articles on Mars and Space issues - Software Developer of Tune Smithy, Bounce Metronome etc.Studied at Wolfson College, Oxford
Lives in Isle of Mull
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