Originally Answered: Is the Mars One project fake?
Same true of SpaceX actually. An enthusiast in space exploration who has a lot of money - but - though clever intelligent, basically is the same as you or me. Not a superman - though an astute businessman for sure.
So - they depend on their advisers. And if you pick your advisers you can find people who will support you on almost any idea.
With SpaceX - then at least they are actually building the rockets themselves. I don't think they will succeed myself because they pay too much attention to the lift mass and technological challenge and are ignoring human factors. And the technological challenges I think might well turn out to be far more than they expect also.
PLANETARY PROTECTION
Plus I don't think any of them can land on Mars and preserve planetary protection. Mars One think they can though. They say they discussed with the Planetary Protection office and that it seems there is no problem with their plans.
But if so - they haven't yet shared a detailed explanation of how they plan to land on Mars without introducing Earth life to it. Hard to judge their plans when they have not yet been made public, but is hard to see how they can do it. Still - that again I think is just optimism, not deception.
Even NASA talk about landing humans on Mars - though they also have not shared any detailed plans to explain how they can do it and preserve planetary protection. Especially in event of a hard landing on Mars by human occupied habitat.
So personally - Point Of View here - I expect both plans to morph into telerobotic missions to Mars orbit, if they continue.
That is, if it is true as it seems to be that a mission to the surface can't be made consistent with planetary protection. Either that or if that doesn't interest them - both may just be postponed until we know more about Mars.
I think they do believe that they can do it though. Either that or they might believe that we will move to the "next phase" of exploration - the idea that you have completed your biological exploration of Mars and that it no longer needs to be protected.
(How can you complete biological exploration when you haven't yet sent a rover to study the most likely habitats for life there?).
This is all hypothesis though - when none of the groups interested in sending humans to the Mars surface have yet shared any details about their plans to protect the planet from Earth life.
TECHNOLOGY
But SpaceX at least builds rockets - and whether they get to Mars, will at least develop interesting technology on the way there. They have already done so, apparently already have some design features of their rockets depending on ideas they think will be useful for Mars. For instance a vertical landing is far more useful for Mars than for Earth where parachutes work well enough.
With Mars One - they are just hugely optimistic about the technology.
They seem to think that if you have enough money, you can just pay other companies to do feasibility studies and design the separate components and fit them together - and make sure you have a bunch of good scientific advisers on your team - and somehow it will all work.
I feel neither, but especially Mars One, quite realize the level of innovation involved - surely at least as complex as designing the space shuttle from scratch, or completing the Apollo Mission after completion of Gemini.
But they don't see it that way - and I think that is also genuine, just don't think it is such a major challenge to complete.
FINANCING
Again - they have the idea that people world wide would pay to watch their mission as much as they pay to watch the Olympic games or to have the rights to broadcast the Olympic Games.
Mars One Business Model - Finance and Feasibility - Mars One
Show how the olympic games up to 2012 earned 8 billions.
I think they sincerely believe that, as far as I can tell. That by selling pay per view or rights to broadcast or both, they can fund the whole thing at a level of billions of dollars. And that the general public will be as interested in watching their candidates as they are in watching the Olympic Games.
And again - that a relatively low figure of $8 billions will be enough for their project - that's clearly assuming that it just works pretty much - that you build your habitats - send them to Mars - and they just work - with no previous tests in space (say on the Moon or somewhere easier).
Again - maybe a case that when you are very keen on an idea, that things that seem slender hopes to outsiders may well seem almost sure things to you.
Also is a general thing amongst space colonization enthusiasts - they often think that many people will join in their enthusiasm. I wouldn't be surprised if many space enthusiasts might think that the general public would be as interested in their ideas, if they ever came to fruition, as they are in the Olympic Games.
Perhaps momentarily they were - back in the 1960s with Apollo. Not everyone, but quite a few people might say that watching the Apollo 11 landing was as interesting as watching the Olympic Games -at least for a few minutes - not so many that would watch it all the way through, many hours long TV programs on Apollo, staying up late etc, as I did though :).
Perhaps also if we find something astonishing on Mars such as non Earth based life - they might get as excited as they are about other major discoveries. Would we ever get same enthusiasm and excitement for anything in space as Apollo though? And would it last more than a year if it did? I'm skeptical there myself. But many space enthusiasts would think this likely.
So that is likely to be genuine also.
When watching "Dragon's Den" here in the UK - often the entrepeneurs are convinced that they have come up with a big idea that will take on and people will pay millions for it. Some may be right. But seems a general trait of entrepeneurs to believe that. And after some previous successes, probably even more so.
MARS ONE IS COMING UP WITH INTERESTING IDEAS
And - a plus point, they are coming up with several interesting ideas. So if it fails, as I expect, still it will contribute to space exploration.
Especially -their idea of sending thin film photovoltaics to Mars makes a lot of sense. Whether they will even get as far as a first demo robotic lander I don't know. Not looking too good with the failure of their crowdfunder to reach its initial goal. But it's an innovative idea there - to focus on the amount of power you can generate per weight, instead of efficiency - and to spread out solar panels over a large area of Mars to power your spacecraft.
Maybe other landers on Mars can borrow that idea.
TALKS BY BAS LANSDORP - DECIDE FOR YOURSELF
(As you can probably tell I'm one of those who are highly skeptical of their chances, and their business model, so take my answer in that light. Hope it doesn't come over too negative - I find it hard to show much enthusiasm for their idea - though I wish them luck - so long as they can keep Mars protected from Earth life...).
He gave a couple of talks on the SpaceShow and I thought he came across as someone who genuinely believes what he is saying, for what it is worth.
Try listening to them and judge for yourself
Bas Lansdorp on the SpaceShow by Dr David Livingston
And they are undoubtedly putting a lot of time and thought into trying to make it succeed.
Personally, I don't see how it can possibly be a scam. I see it as a space enthusiast with a big idea, like Elon Musk, but without the technological business background he now has. And with the enthusiasm for his idea that any entrepeneur has.
And good business sense. But that doesn't make it a scam, just financially careful. Only doing things they can pay for at each stage.
About the Author
Robert Walker
Writer of articles on Mars and Space issues - Software Developer of Tune Smithy, Bounce Metronome etc.Studied at Wolfson College, Oxford
Lives in Isle of Mull
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