I think there is a more viable business model for a colony in orbit around Mars. Because there are assets there that are of value for Earth - the ice in Deimos for instance, useful for rocket fuel for LEO. It may seem a long way to export materials to Earth - but it's not for goods that you are in no hurry to send there, what matters is the delta v. And some of the water can be used for fuel for the journey to Earth.
Depends how much ice there is on Deimos. If there are many millions of millions of tons, can imagine this business lasting for centuries without making a dent on it.
If this was a valid business model, you could then use materials from Deimos to make your orbiting Stanford Torus type settlements, financed by this export to Earth.
They would be like mining communities that you get in remote places on the Earth where you do get towns, even cities that last as long as the commodity is of enough value to export. When it is no longer needed, then it becomes a derelict place where nobody wants to live, so if for instance it gets easy to export water from Earth to orbit, might happen quite quickly, your colony no longer has an income.
So it's not necessarily going to last long term. Depends. I think hard to see many things that you could guarantee to last as a long term space community as far away as Mars, including on the surface, simply because as soon as any economic need vanishes, then it is far easier to build your settlements on Earth, so people would come back to Earth where it is so much easier to live.
Closer to Earth - then you could get more permanent communities based e.g. about supplying energy to the Earth - but then- they might eventually get so automated no humans are really needed any more to run them except for occasional visits.
I think the Antarctic type settlements would come first, though, probably. Because there is ice at the lunar poles also, and safer and easier to get to that than to get to Mars orbit.
Again all this depending on what we discover about that ice, if it is there, how much it is, if it is of some other intrinsic value etc.
The research communities also - surely once started - would just go on and on. We don't show any signs of ending research into the Earth's geology. Scientists I can imagine having great interest in Mars geology - and biology also - into the foreseeable future. So long as we value scientific research - and if they are not too expensive, can imagine they would last.
And might get permanent residents there also, financed by the research funds.
As travel from Earth gets easier, and also safer, if you can get to Mars orbit in a few weeks or even days, and without a high risk of losing your life in the process, you might get tourists etc business there also.
It's very hard to see how humans on the surface could land there without introducing Earth microbes. Just a crash landing there is a major breach of planetary protection.
And if you talk about re-usable rockets shuttling back and forth, giant SpaceX type rockets landing on Mars and taking off again - how can they possibly be sterilized?
So a planet surface colonization would depend on discovering that there is no interesting life on Mars that needs to be protected, or that the surface is so hostile to life that no Earth life can survive there, etc. Or a decision made that we just won't bother to try to protect Mars life from Earth life. Also depends on a decision being made that it is okay to introduced advanced Earth life to the planet at an early stage - which may be incompatible with terraforming it, if that's the future aim.
But orbital colonies - they don't have such requirements, so long as you are careful. E.g. don't use aerobraking because of the risk of a crash landing on Mars surface.
Depends how much ice there is on Deimos. If there are many millions of millions of tons, can imagine this business lasting for centuries without making a dent on it.
If this was a valid business model, you could then use materials from Deimos to make your orbiting Stanford Torus type settlements, financed by this export to Earth.
They would be like mining communities that you get in remote places on the Earth where you do get towns, even cities that last as long as the commodity is of enough value to export. When it is no longer needed, then it becomes a derelict place where nobody wants to live, so if for instance it gets easy to export water from Earth to orbit, might happen quite quickly, your colony no longer has an income.
So it's not necessarily going to last long term. Depends. I think hard to see many things that you could guarantee to last as a long term space community as far away as Mars, including on the surface, simply because as soon as any economic need vanishes, then it is far easier to build your settlements on Earth, so people would come back to Earth where it is so much easier to live.
Closer to Earth - then you could get more permanent communities based e.g. about supplying energy to the Earth - but then- they might eventually get so automated no humans are really needed any more to run them except for occasional visits.
I think the Antarctic type settlements would come first, though, probably. Because there is ice at the lunar poles also, and safer and easier to get to that than to get to Mars orbit.
Again all this depending on what we discover about that ice, if it is there, how much it is, if it is of some other intrinsic value etc.
The research communities also - surely once started - would just go on and on. We don't show any signs of ending research into the Earth's geology. Scientists I can imagine having great interest in Mars geology - and biology also - into the foreseeable future. So long as we value scientific research - and if they are not too expensive, can imagine they would last.
And might get permanent residents there also, financed by the research funds.
As travel from Earth gets easier, and also safer, if you can get to Mars orbit in a few weeks or even days, and without a high risk of losing your life in the process, you might get tourists etc business there also.
It's very hard to see how humans on the surface could land there without introducing Earth microbes. Just a crash landing there is a major breach of planetary protection.
And if you talk about re-usable rockets shuttling back and forth, giant SpaceX type rockets landing on Mars and taking off again - how can they possibly be sterilized?
So a planet surface colonization would depend on discovering that there is no interesting life on Mars that needs to be protected, or that the surface is so hostile to life that no Earth life can survive there, etc. Or a decision made that we just won't bother to try to protect Mars life from Earth life. Also depends on a decision being made that it is okay to introduced advanced Earth life to the planet at an early stage - which may be incompatible with terraforming it, if that's the future aim.
But orbital colonies - they don't have such requirements, so long as you are careful. E.g. don't use aerobraking because of the risk of a crash landing on Mars surface.
About the Author
Robert Walker
Writer of articles on Mars and Space issues - Software Developer of Tune Smithy, Bounce Metronome etc.Studied at Wolfson College, Oxford
Lives in Isle of Mull
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