No,. Kim Stanley Robinson's Mars trilogy is way too optimistic there. The Mars Society, most optimistic about it, estimates 1,000 years and that is just partial terraforming, - to get to the point where you can grow trees and ordinary vegetation and humans can survive on the surface without spacesuits but still need oxygen breathers, a bit like aqualungs.
So - that's 1000 years of a stable technological civilization and mega technology devoted to the project, and still humans can only survive there with high technology.
Several more millennia, quite possibly tens of thousands of years to get an oxygen atmosphere.
Problem with the oxygen is that to create oxygen then photosythesis uses up a CO2 molecule and turns that into organics. To get an Earth atmosphere of oxygen on Mars by that process means several meters of organics over the surface. Which is obviously going to take a fair while.
So, is not enough to just look at how much oxygen is produced, but also how much is consumed, and what the net result is.
And then - it is not a permanent terraforming, because - if you can terraform so quickly - what is to stop it "unterraforming".
Some get the idea that it is almost automatic - add life and it will terraform itself.
However - Mars may well have life. Not trees and grass, but microbes, and may well have been like the early Earth to start with.
What we see now is the "default state" for Mars after some billions of years. And is not at all clear that any other stable "default state" can be achieved, especially a warmer one.
For that matter is a big problem, is there enough water. For instance, is enough ice at the poles for 12 meters of water over the surface. But in the equatorial regions, the surface is dry for kilometers of depth.
Melting that ice might be like pouring water into the Sahara desert and hoping to form a sea. Would do eventually but you would need a lot of water, is there enough on Mars?
Other problems, that Mars gets far less light than Earth. Take Earth out to the Mars orbit and its oceans will freeze over.
So you need giant mirrors or permanent greenhouse gases or most likely both.
It has no continental drift and no magnetic field - short term that doesn't make such a difference, but long term - that means it will not be able to return CO2 to the atmosphere - which is what takes Earth out of its snowball phase. But long term will gradually lose its atmosphere and return to its present state. And lose its water through dissociation of hydrogen and oxygen in the upper atmosphere.
And - all this assumes everything goes perfectly.
Remember, it took millions of years on the Earth, the whole thing is just theory, nobody has yet terraformed a planet.
For that matter, we can't yet create a completely closed ecosystem in a greenhouse! Biosphere II famously failed, mainly because of a problem with the concrete in the walls of the habitat.
If we are at the stage where attempts to create a closed system habitat on the Earth fail because of an oversight about concrete, despite massive scrutiny, I think we are a bit away from the point where we can start to terraform planets :).
There are many things that can go wrong.
See my Trouble With Terraforming Mars
Perhaps some day, but no way that it can happen in the near future in the same way as in the Mars trilogy, on current understanding.
Good for a story. But sci. fi. of course is not always predictive, even hard sci. fi.
Like for instance all the early Asimov stories projecting main frame computers into a future where the US has a giant sized computer covering square kilometers that does everything.
Or even earlier sci fi stories about astronauts flying spaceships faster than light and using slide rules for their navigation calculations.
It's fun reading, and does have some good hard science in it, but the time frame is between one and two orders of magnitude speeded up - for the sake of a good story I presume.
So - that's 1000 years of a stable technological civilization and mega technology devoted to the project, and still humans can only survive there with high technology.
OXYGEN - METERS OF ORGANICS NEEDED OVER ENTIRE SURFACE - NEEDS MIlLENNIA
Several more millennia, quite possibly tens of thousands of years to get an oxygen atmosphere.
Problem with the oxygen is that to create oxygen then photosythesis uses up a CO2 molecule and turns that into organics. To get an Earth atmosphere of oxygen on Mars by that process means several meters of organics over the surface. Which is obviously going to take a fair while.
So, is not enough to just look at how much oxygen is produced, but also how much is consumed, and what the net result is.
UNTERRAFORMING AND MARS NATURAL STATE
And then - it is not a permanent terraforming, because - if you can terraform so quickly - what is to stop it "unterraforming".
Some get the idea that it is almost automatic - add life and it will terraform itself.
However - Mars may well have life. Not trees and grass, but microbes, and may well have been like the early Earth to start with.
What we see now is the "default state" for Mars after some billions of years. And is not at all clear that any other stable "default state" can be achieved, especially a warmer one.
WATER - POURING IT INTO A DRY DESERT LANDSCAPE
For that matter is a big problem, is there enough water. For instance, is enough ice at the poles for 12 meters of water over the surface. But in the equatorial regions, the surface is dry for kilometers of depth.
Melting that ice might be like pouring water into the Sahara desert and hoping to form a sea. Would do eventually but you would need a lot of water, is there enough on Mars?
LIGHT - HALF THAT OF EARTH
Other problems, that Mars gets far less light than Earth. Take Earth out to the Mars orbit and its oceans will freeze over.
So you need giant mirrors or permanent greenhouse gases or most likely both.
CONTINENTAL DRIFT AND MAGNETIC FIELD
It has no continental drift and no magnetic field - short term that doesn't make such a difference, but long term - that means it will not be able to return CO2 to the atmosphere - which is what takes Earth out of its snowball phase. But long term will gradually lose its atmosphere and return to its present state. And lose its water through dissociation of hydrogen and oxygen in the upper atmosphere.
And - all this assumes everything goes perfectly.
MASSIVELY SPEEDED UP CONCEPT, TOOK MILLIONS OF YEARS ON EARTH
Remember, it took millions of years on the Earth, the whole thing is just theory, nobody has yet terraformed a planet.
WE CAN'T YET "TERRAFORM" A CLOSED SYSTEM GREENHOUSE ON EARTH
For that matter, we can't yet create a completely closed ecosystem in a greenhouse! Biosphere II famously failed, mainly because of a problem with the concrete in the walls of the habitat.
If we are at the stage where attempts to create a closed system habitat on the Earth fail because of an oversight about concrete, despite massive scrutiny, I think we are a bit away from the point where we can start to terraform planets :).
TROUBLE WITH TERRAFORMING MARS
There are many things that can go wrong.
See my Trouble With Terraforming Mars
ENTERTAINING STORY - BUT IT'S SCI FI
Perhaps some day, but no way that it can happen in the near future in the same way as in the Mars trilogy, on current understanding.
Good for a story. But sci. fi. of course is not always predictive, even hard sci. fi.
Like for instance all the early Asimov stories projecting main frame computers into a future where the US has a giant sized computer covering square kilometers that does everything.
Or even earlier sci fi stories about astronauts flying spaceships faster than light and using slide rules for their navigation calculations.
It's fun reading, and does have some good hard science in it, but the time frame is between one and two orders of magnitude speeded up - for the sake of a good story I presume.
About the Author
Robert Walker
Writer of articles on Mars and Space issues - Software Developer of Tune Smithy, Bounce Metronome etc.Studied at Wolfson College, Oxford
Lives in Isle of Mull
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