Hard to say. I'd love to see a telerobotic mission to Mars orbit by humans.
That's because it's so interesting to study for the origins of life and possibility of present day life.
In its first few hundred million years Mars had a sea and a thick atmosphere - similarly to Earth and Venus - originally even at temperatures well above 100 C like Earth - and rich in nitrates created in giant meteorite impacts - as it cooled down - for some time it was pretty good place for life to get started just like Early Earth. Indeed possibly before Earth - because it formed further out so probably cooled down sooner - and didn't have the impact of the Moon which made the whole surface of Earth molten and "reset" the geological record and may well have caused evolution to restart on Earth if it did start before then.
Then - if the life did evolve on Mars - and got as far as the stage where it is as robust as Earth microbes - able to form long lasting spores or dormant states - then is hard to see it then vanishing from Mars. So probably still there.
Especially also now it's possible that there are habitats for life on present day Mars (especially the warm seasonal flows - a rare phenomenon on a few patches of Mars of dark streaks that form on sun facing slopes above 0C - and not syncrhonized with storms or winds - but seasonal - all the hypotheses suggested for them so far involve liquid, probably very salty, water).
Don't know how much it would cost, might be this much - if you take account of needing to do lots of tests closer to Earth first - I don't think an Inspiration Mars type mission straight to Mars is safe myself, without Apollo 1 - 10 type tests closer to Earth first.
Whether it is worth it is another matter though. How do you value it?
I think if we find life on Mars and it is interestingly different from Earth life - that would be major motivation to study it close up. Especially if it is XNA based life or an early form of life that clearly dates from before the biochemical machinery of modern cells, or has interesting and novel biochemistry.
In that case I can imagine that we might well decide it is worth spending billions to study it close up. And returning samples to Earth is not the way to do it, not if you are talking about a few kg of samples. First - potential dangers of returning non Earth life to our planet - worst case XNA takes over from DNA - it needs careful study and know what the life is like before you do that. But also - life is not like geology. You can't see it from orbit - and a geological sample won't find it - need a life survey of Mars similar to our geological surveys so far before we know what is interesting there.
So that could be major motivation to send humans to Mars orbit. They would not land on the surface however, as that would contaminate the planet and destroy its value for life - the very reason they are there.
They would study it from orbit - much in the same way that gamers explore virtual worlds with the Virtuix Omni treadmill and the Occulus Rift 3D glasses. With haptic feedback also - so you can feel things too. It would be more like being there than if you were on the surface yourself as human eyes wouldn't see too well in the dim brownish red conditions of the surface of Mars and would be encumbered by spacesuits.
No point in gong there to escape disasters on Earth though. No imminent disasters even for millions of generations will make Earth as uninhabitable as Mars so if you want to restore civilization or terraform a planet after a disaster, Earth will always be your first choice not Mars.
And Earth is also the best place to survive all the foreseeable disasters - even giant impact - not likely to happen - expect of order of 100,000s of generations of humans on average between global disaster type impacts - and even then, some parts of Earth will have human survivors. In the very worst case of a global firestorm (and chances are we've evolved into a new species before that happens, given that it's most likely to be a few hundred thousand generations into the future) - at least some survive underground or in submarines, or at the poles etc - in a far better place to rebuild civilization on Earth than anyone in space.
But lots to find out from Mars, so a great place to go to explore.
Ten Reasons NOT To Live On Mars - Great Place To Explore
That's because it's so interesting to study for the origins of life and possibility of present day life.
In its first few hundred million years Mars had a sea and a thick atmosphere - similarly to Earth and Venus - originally even at temperatures well above 100 C like Earth - and rich in nitrates created in giant meteorite impacts - as it cooled down - for some time it was pretty good place for life to get started just like Early Earth. Indeed possibly before Earth - because it formed further out so probably cooled down sooner - and didn't have the impact of the Moon which made the whole surface of Earth molten and "reset" the geological record and may well have caused evolution to restart on Earth if it did start before then.
Then - if the life did evolve on Mars - and got as far as the stage where it is as robust as Earth microbes - able to form long lasting spores or dormant states - then is hard to see it then vanishing from Mars. So probably still there.
Especially also now it's possible that there are habitats for life on present day Mars (especially the warm seasonal flows - a rare phenomenon on a few patches of Mars of dark streaks that form on sun facing slopes above 0C - and not syncrhonized with storms or winds - but seasonal - all the hypotheses suggested for them so far involve liquid, probably very salty, water).
Don't know how much it would cost, might be this much - if you take account of needing to do lots of tests closer to Earth first - I don't think an Inspiration Mars type mission straight to Mars is safe myself, without Apollo 1 - 10 type tests closer to Earth first.
Whether it is worth it is another matter though. How do you value it?
I think if we find life on Mars and it is interestingly different from Earth life - that would be major motivation to study it close up. Especially if it is XNA based life or an early form of life that clearly dates from before the biochemical machinery of modern cells, or has interesting and novel biochemistry.
In that case I can imagine that we might well decide it is worth spending billions to study it close up. And returning samples to Earth is not the way to do it, not if you are talking about a few kg of samples. First - potential dangers of returning non Earth life to our planet - worst case XNA takes over from DNA - it needs careful study and know what the life is like before you do that. But also - life is not like geology. You can't see it from orbit - and a geological sample won't find it - need a life survey of Mars similar to our geological surveys so far before we know what is interesting there.
So that could be major motivation to send humans to Mars orbit. They would not land on the surface however, as that would contaminate the planet and destroy its value for life - the very reason they are there.
They would study it from orbit - much in the same way that gamers explore virtual worlds with the Virtuix Omni treadmill and the Occulus Rift 3D glasses. With haptic feedback also - so you can feel things too. It would be more like being there than if you were on the surface yourself as human eyes wouldn't see too well in the dim brownish red conditions of the surface of Mars and would be encumbered by spacesuits.
No point in gong there to escape disasters on Earth though. No imminent disasters even for millions of generations will make Earth as uninhabitable as Mars so if you want to restore civilization or terraform a planet after a disaster, Earth will always be your first choice not Mars.
And Earth is also the best place to survive all the foreseeable disasters - even giant impact - not likely to happen - expect of order of 100,000s of generations of humans on average between global disaster type impacts - and even then, some parts of Earth will have human survivors. In the very worst case of a global firestorm (and chances are we've evolved into a new species before that happens, given that it's most likely to be a few hundred thousand generations into the future) - at least some survive underground or in submarines, or at the poles etc - in a far better place to rebuild civilization on Earth than anyone in space.
But lots to find out from Mars, so a great place to go to explore.
Ten Reasons NOT To Live On Mars - Great Place To Explore
About the Author
Robert Walker
Writer of articles on Mars and Space issues - Software Developer of Tune Smithy, Bounce Metronome etc.Studied at Wolfson College, Oxford
Lives in Isle of Mull
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