No, no humans on board. It's pretty much the same rocket they hope to use to send humans to the ISS, but they are not ready for humans yet. As this launch shows.
Humans of course need a much better safety record than unmanned spaceflights. By way of example, risk of base jumping is about 1 in 500. We haven't yet had 500 successive space flights by any rocket with humans in it without casualties, even the Soyuz TMA hasn't achieved that.
I think it is possible that flying to the ISS in the Soyuz TMA may be nearly as safe as doing a base jump with a well qualified instructor - I'd hesitate to say it was safer though it does have many redundant layers of safety measures which surely helps.
The SpaceX may take some time to reach the same assurances as the Soyuz TMA. If you just rely on statistics, it would have to do many launches to establish that it is as safe as the Soyuz TMA, or as base jumping. I think they hope to show that their system is so reliable and carefully thought out that you can see it is safe without having to do numerous flights first. If so this may be a bit of a setback.
As for unmanned flights though, they have an excellent record so far. High level of reliability for unmanned flight, I think they've already established their capability for those with the record so far - but it's a question as to whether and how soon they can reach the reliability needed for humans.
At least, since it's the same rocket, they can build up experience with unmanned flights, so the more unmanned flights, the more experience they have with most of the systems that need to be reliable for human spaceflight. And they have many unmanned flights a year.
One thing I wonder. Would the crew have been able to eject if this happened during their launch? Anyone know?
Note David Güera has answered in comment:
Humans of course need a much better safety record than unmanned spaceflights. By way of example, risk of base jumping is about 1 in 500. We haven't yet had 500 successive space flights by any rocket with humans in it without casualties, even the Soyuz TMA hasn't achieved that.
I think it is possible that flying to the ISS in the Soyuz TMA may be nearly as safe as doing a base jump with a well qualified instructor - I'd hesitate to say it was safer though it does have many redundant layers of safety measures which surely helps.
The SpaceX may take some time to reach the same assurances as the Soyuz TMA. If you just rely on statistics, it would have to do many launches to establish that it is as safe as the Soyuz TMA, or as base jumping. I think they hope to show that their system is so reliable and carefully thought out that you can see it is safe without having to do numerous flights first. If so this may be a bit of a setback.
As for unmanned flights though, they have an excellent record so far. High level of reliability for unmanned flight, I think they've already established their capability for those with the record so far - but it's a question as to whether and how soon they can reach the reliability needed for humans.
At least, since it's the same rocket, they can build up experience with unmanned flights, so the more unmanned flights, the more experience they have with most of the systems that need to be reliable for human spaceflight. And they have many unmanned flights a year.
One thing I wonder. Would the crew have been able to eject if this happened during their launch? Anyone know?
Note David Güera has answered in comment:
"Gwynne Shotwell has stated in the NASA press conference regarding the incident that yes, the capsule would have ejected in an event like this and it would have been able to withstand much more, as the explosion has originated in the second stage of the rocket. The capsule is designed to carry astronauts (and cargo in the future) away safely from the rocket in case of explosion in the first stage."
About the Author
Robert Walker
Writer of articles on Mars and Space issues - Software Developer of Tune Smithy, Bounce Metronome etc.Studied at Wolfson College, Oxford
Lives in Isle of Mull
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