The plans are exciting if he can get them to work. SpaceX haven’t yet sent a human into space, not even a test pilot, so I think a bit of a reality check is in order here. They have had many unmanned flights using the same rocket they will use for humans, but that's not quite the same as actually sending a human into space.
They have also had two incidents with the Falcon nine, the second leading to it blowing up while refueling, stationary on the launch site, and before the test burn of the engine - such a rare form of accident it hasn't been seen for decades. Doug Messier has an interesting opinion piece here, questioning the wisdom of bringing Silicon Valley working practices of 60-80 hour weeks, multi-tasking, and frequent hardware and software upgrades to the rocket industry. See Are SpaceX’s 60 to 80 Hour Work Weeks Really Such a Good Idea?
There's no question, they have already achieved amazing things and have reached the reliability levels needed for unmanned launches. But are they ready for manned flights? This spaceship for a hundred people is a fair way down the road yet. And what happens if the rocket blows up on the launch pad? How do they ensure that those 100 people survive such an accident safely? I'm not saying they won't do it, not at all, just a reality check and a caution that it is early days yet.
If they do achieve this rocket, and do it safely, it will be a major accomplishment and milestone. I think they would need to do a fair number of long duration tests closer to Earth before it’s safe to go on an interplanetary mission.
Having 100 crew on one rocket does have a downside though, as it would be a major disaster and set back if it exploded with them all on board or there was a failed launch or some other set back of that sort. He says himself in his presentation that the first flights will be risky.
Assuming it all does work, then I have many issues with the idea of sending humans ot Mars so soon, and I don’t think we need to become interplanetary. If we spend decades on this effort to try to set up a human colony on Mars, we may destroy our chances of ground breaking scientific results, first of all. If one of these ships ,complete with its 100 residents, crashes on Mars then that surely is the end of all planetary protection of the planet.
Then to put so much effort into this, when we could instead be protecting Earth, finding asteroids and deflecting them, moving our industry off planet, solar power in space, who knows what else we could do with such a massive outlay of effort. Especially if they intend to terraform Mars - that’s a huge undertaking which I happen to think is well beyond our capabilities at present, and maybe never can be done, but we could spend a lot of time and resources attempting it, especially if he convinces governments to partner with him as is his aim.
However I think it could be of great value if it does work, and if developed in a step by step way. It could be useful for transporting materials and eventually people to and from the Moon. Like that, as a shuttle from Earth to Moon and back, refueled from Earth, passengers only go on board when ready to set off, it could be much safer perhaps. . It could support industry on the Moon, a major tourist trade there, who knows what. And the technology could be used for scientific missions throughout our solar system and also people.
See also my
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