This comes up over and over, different dates each time, nearly always just a few months into the future - see the Asteroid Scares topic where we've gathered them together.
I've also done a "generic" answer here on my science20 blog: Is It True That An Asteroid Will Strike Earth On [Insert Date Here]? - Truth Behind Asteroid Scare Stories
You can look it up here: Current Impact Risks.
If there is any known chance of an impact, it will be coloured orange or red.
So far this has never happened. They often go green briefly, when first discovered, because the orbit is not well understood. Once one of them went yellow for a short while. But none of them has ever reached orange so far.
So when you see a story like this - go there first. If you see an orange or red entry then the story may have some substance. Otherwise, it's just sensational exaggeration.
It may be an event of interest to astronomers. This one doesn't even appear in that table at all as far as I can see so it is probably just an example of a Near Earth asteroid that comes close to the Earth close enough for astronomers to get a good look at it. This happens often - there are many near Earth asteroids. There is only one known near Earth asteroid with a chance of impacting Earth in the next few centuries - it has a 1 in 20,000 chance of an impact over nine centuries from now (985 years from now). That's still quite a tiny probability, so as we learn more about its orbit, and as time goes on, as we find out what it does, probably we find it doesn't impact. If it does, well we have many centuries to prepare - plenty of time to divert it I would imagine most likely thing with such a long lead time.
see the Quora Asteroid Scares topic.
and my blog post: Is It True That An Asteroid Will Strike Earth On [Insert Date Here]? - Truth Behind Asteroid Scare Stories
I've also done a "generic" answer here on my science20 blog: Is It True That An Asteroid Will Strike Earth On [Insert Date Here]? - Truth Behind Asteroid Scare Stories
You can look it up here: Current Impact Risks.
If there is any known chance of an impact, it will be coloured orange or red.
So far this has never happened. They often go green briefly, when first discovered, because the orbit is not well understood. Once one of them went yellow for a short while. But none of them has ever reached orange so far.
So when you see a story like this - go there first. If you see an orange or red entry then the story may have some substance. Otherwise, it's just sensational exaggeration.
It may be an event of interest to astronomers. This one doesn't even appear in that table at all as far as I can see so it is probably just an example of a Near Earth asteroid that comes close to the Earth close enough for astronomers to get a good look at it. This happens often - there are many near Earth asteroids. There is only one known near Earth asteroid with a chance of impacting Earth in the next few centuries - it has a 1 in 20,000 chance of an impact over nine centuries from now (985 years from now). That's still quite a tiny probability, so as we learn more about its orbit, and as time goes on, as we find out what it does, probably we find it doesn't impact. If it does, well we have many centuries to prepare - plenty of time to divert it I would imagine most likely thing with such a long lead time.
see the Quora Asteroid Scares topic.
and my blog post: Is It True That An Asteroid Will Strike Earth On [Insert Date Here]? - Truth Behind Asteroid Scare Stories
About the Author
Robert Walker
Writer of articles on Mars and Space issues - Software Developer of Tune Smithy, Bounce Metronome etc.Studied at Wolfson College, Oxford
Lives in Isle of Mull
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