I can see Elon Musk's work as being of great value to get cargo into space as it is already. But I'm not so sure about humans, for either SpaceX or Virgin Galactica.
The thing is that it is just so expensive to send spacecraft to orbit. Even the venerable Soyuz has only had 125 flights. And has has two disasters, the Soyuz 1 and the The Soyuz 11.
If you include uncrewed missions, the system has had an impressive 987 flights All Time Space Launch Results
Unless they can bring the price to orbit right down, there is no way that their rockets can have anything like the level of testing an airplane has or a car. And - I think they are quite right to question whether a young company like SpaceX has the expertise and experience to be sure they don't make any mistakes at all, like the Space Shuttle errors .
A failure rate of 1 in 20 flights, for instance, or even 1 in 50, would be acceptable for cargo, but not at all for humans.
Ariane 5 for instance is considered a reasonably reliable rocket for launching satellites and spacecraft - it has had only two failures out of 77 launches. Ariane 5
But I think with those statistics, most people wouldn't want to fly on a rocket with a similar safety record. And if they did - then the first crash with humans on board would probably be a major setback.
In case of the space shuttle, the 25th and the 113rd flights crashed.
List of Space Shuttle missions
The Soyuz holds the record for the number of consecutive flights without loss of life, at 114 flights (compared with 88 for the space shuttle).
The Shuttle has a higher percentage of success at 2/135 instead of 2/125.
Still - would you fly in a plane which had had only 125 flights so far total, with two of them fatal? Though it's had many improvements and has many safety systems and uses robust systems, and I think most would say that the Soyuz is the safest way to get humans into space so far developed - still, I'm not sure that the "space tourists" maybe quite realize, it's not nearly as safe as an airplane, surely.
And Elon Musk's spaceship would have a long way to go before he can prove reliability at the level of the Soyuz. Short of some major innovation that can in some way totally prove reliability without extensive testing.
The passengers may sign disclaimers and so on. But the first Challenger type disaster I think would stop this in their tracks. Except for explorers who are willing to take extreme risks such as test pilots, and some astronauts.
I hope a way can be found around this, but am not optimistic myself that they will be able to get their rockets as safe as, say, the Soyuz TMA. Or, if they are able to achieve this - how can they prove that they are indeed as safe as this? Short of doing hundreds of test flights - which would give good evidence, but would be enormously expensive.
But wish them well in this. It would be quite a revolution if they did succeed.
The thing is that it is just so expensive to send spacecraft to orbit. Even the venerable Soyuz has only had 125 flights. And has has two disasters, the Soyuz 1 and the The Soyuz 11.
If you include uncrewed missions, the system has had an impressive 987 flights All Time Space Launch Results
Unless they can bring the price to orbit right down, there is no way that their rockets can have anything like the level of testing an airplane has or a car. And - I think they are quite right to question whether a young company like SpaceX has the expertise and experience to be sure they don't make any mistakes at all, like the Space Shuttle errors .
A failure rate of 1 in 20 flights, for instance, or even 1 in 50, would be acceptable for cargo, but not at all for humans.
Ariane 5 for instance is considered a reasonably reliable rocket for launching satellites and spacecraft - it has had only two failures out of 77 launches. Ariane 5
But I think with those statistics, most people wouldn't want to fly on a rocket with a similar safety record. And if they did - then the first crash with humans on board would probably be a major setback.
In case of the space shuttle, the 25th and the 113rd flights crashed.
List of Space Shuttle missions
The Soyuz holds the record for the number of consecutive flights without loss of life, at 114 flights (compared with 88 for the space shuttle).
The Shuttle has a higher percentage of success at 2/135 instead of 2/125.
Still - would you fly in a plane which had had only 125 flights so far total, with two of them fatal? Though it's had many improvements and has many safety systems and uses robust systems, and I think most would say that the Soyuz is the safest way to get humans into space so far developed - still, I'm not sure that the "space tourists" maybe quite realize, it's not nearly as safe as an airplane, surely.
And Elon Musk's spaceship would have a long way to go before he can prove reliability at the level of the Soyuz. Short of some major innovation that can in some way totally prove reliability without extensive testing.
The passengers may sign disclaimers and so on. But the first Challenger type disaster I think would stop this in their tracks. Except for explorers who are willing to take extreme risks such as test pilots, and some astronauts.
I hope a way can be found around this, but am not optimistic myself that they will be able to get their rockets as safe as, say, the Soyuz TMA. Or, if they are able to achieve this - how can they prove that they are indeed as safe as this? Short of doing hundreds of test flights - which would give good evidence, but would be enormously expensive.
But wish them well in this. It would be quite a revolution if they did succeed.
About the Author
Robert Walker
Writer of articles on Mars and Space issues - Software Developer of Tune Smithy, Bounce Metronome etc.Studied at Wolfson College, Oxford
Lives in Isle of Mull
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