No, not at all. It's like Antarctica. Many permanent bases there but no dispute over territory. That's because of the Antarctic Treaty. In case of the Moon we have the Outer Space Treaty. This is agreed on by nearly all nation states and all the space faring nation states.
It doesn't permit ownership of land in space. So all they own are their bases. And not likely that they will fight to gain ownership of each other's bases. For that matter the OST commits to peaceful exploration of space.
By a base here I'm imagining a small base of at most a few thousand people each, maybe tens of thousands if it gets really big.
If this changed to the point where you got paraterraforming - covering large areas of the Moon with greenhouses - then it might need a rethink of the legislation and might lead to a different political situation.
But personally I think that's not too likely, especially in the near future - because there are many places on the Earth that are far easier to colonize than the Moon or Mars or space colonies space, as I've said in some of my other answers.
So - I think just research stations studying the Moon, also with astronomers studying the sky from the far side of the Moon (no Earth shine and radio silent) - and tourist hotels, resorts, retirement homes if such is feasible on the Moon.
Possibly eventually mining centres also - but a lot of the machinery would be automated as humans don't function well in vacuum while machines do - and a human in a spacesuit is so vulnerable that just damaging the visor or air connections will kill you.
So if we do have a lot of space mining in the future, with the capabilities of present day technology, I expect to have much more by way of robots and telerobots than humans doing the actual mining. So again probably no reason to colonize as such.
Quite probably a colony of enthusiasts out to show that they can live on the Moon. But given that houses cost far more there than on the Earth - and everything is far harder to do - I'd expect if the only reason they are there is to colonize, then their children would want to emigrate to Earth. (This is assuming that it turns out that children can grow up on the Moon - or else that they use some such solution as spinning rooms or habitats or habitats on circular railroads on the Moon for artificial extra gravity).
To anyone born in Space, Earth which would seem like a paradise to them. It is so much easier as a place to live than the Moon or Mars, air to breath, can walk anywhere no spacesuit, no cosmic radiation shielding. And the green grass, trees, skies, oceans, sunshine in a blue sky, hard to beat that for a place to live.,
That is assuming they nave no sense of where they live as somewhere exotic or wonderful - as it is what they are used to all their lives. Also, the Moon would probably by then seems no more exotic to humans on Earth than say Antarctica either. It would no longer be a big deal to say you are an astronaut, or to say you have been on the Moon, would be a bit like saying you've been to Antarctica - or perhaps - Siberia or Canada once the population is higher on the Moon.
So personally I'd be surprised if we get mass migration and colonization of anywhere outside of the Earth in the near future. Though we may well get settlements of a few thousand, even a few tens of thousands of people or more, if there are reasons for them to be there.
It doesn't permit ownership of land in space. So all they own are their bases. And not likely that they will fight to gain ownership of each other's bases. For that matter the OST commits to peaceful exploration of space.
By a base here I'm imagining a small base of at most a few thousand people each, maybe tens of thousands if it gets really big.
If this changed to the point where you got paraterraforming - covering large areas of the Moon with greenhouses - then it might need a rethink of the legislation and might lead to a different political situation.
But personally I think that's not too likely, especially in the near future - because there are many places on the Earth that are far easier to colonize than the Moon or Mars or space colonies space, as I've said in some of my other answers.
So - I think just research stations studying the Moon, also with astronomers studying the sky from the far side of the Moon (no Earth shine and radio silent) - and tourist hotels, resorts, retirement homes if such is feasible on the Moon.
Possibly eventually mining centres also - but a lot of the machinery would be automated as humans don't function well in vacuum while machines do - and a human in a spacesuit is so vulnerable that just damaging the visor or air connections will kill you.
So if we do have a lot of space mining in the future, with the capabilities of present day technology, I expect to have much more by way of robots and telerobots than humans doing the actual mining. So again probably no reason to colonize as such.
Quite probably a colony of enthusiasts out to show that they can live on the Moon. But given that houses cost far more there than on the Earth - and everything is far harder to do - I'd expect if the only reason they are there is to colonize, then their children would want to emigrate to Earth. (This is assuming that it turns out that children can grow up on the Moon - or else that they use some such solution as spinning rooms or habitats or habitats on circular railroads on the Moon for artificial extra gravity).
To anyone born in Space, Earth which would seem like a paradise to them. It is so much easier as a place to live than the Moon or Mars, air to breath, can walk anywhere no spacesuit, no cosmic radiation shielding. And the green grass, trees, skies, oceans, sunshine in a blue sky, hard to beat that for a place to live.,
That is assuming they nave no sense of where they live as somewhere exotic or wonderful - as it is what they are used to all their lives. Also, the Moon would probably by then seems no more exotic to humans on Earth than say Antarctica either. It would no longer be a big deal to say you are an astronaut, or to say you have been on the Moon, would be a bit like saying you've been to Antarctica - or perhaps - Siberia or Canada once the population is higher on the Moon.
So personally I'd be surprised if we get mass migration and colonization of anywhere outside of the Earth in the near future. Though we may well get settlements of a few thousand, even a few tens of thousands of people or more, if there are reasons for them to be there.
About the Author
Robert Walker
Writer of articles on Mars and Space issues - Software Developer of Tune Smithy, Bounce Metronome etc.Studied at Wolfson College, Oxford
Lives in Isle of Mull
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