A mathematician by training, amateur musician and composer, first learnt to program in the early 1970s, and developer of Tune Smithy - music generator and microtonal composition tool and Bounce Metronome Pro, Activity Timer , Lissajous 3D and Virtual Flower. I've had a long term interest in space and astronomy - and exploration of space, since the 1960s. In 2014, I started writing articles on these subjects, as well as music, for my column at Science 20. I have written two books advocating a Moon first approach: Case for Moon First and MOON FIRST: Why Humans on Mars Right Now Are Bad for Science....
(more)A mathematician by training, amateur musician and composer, first learnt to program in the early 1970s, and developer of Tune Smithy - music generator and microtonal composition tool and Bounce Metronome Pro, Activity Timer , Lissajous 3D and Virtual Flower. I've had a long term interest in space and astronomy - and exploration of space, since the 1960s. In 2014, I started writing articles on these subjects, as well as music, for my column at Science 20. I have written two books advocating a Moon first approach: Case for Moon First and MOON FIRST: Why Humans on Mars Right Now Are Bad for Science. Both are available for kindle and also to read online for free.
I have a first class honours degree in Maths from York university and I studied for a PhD at Wolfson College Oxford (though I didn't get the degree). I also have a M.Hum from York University - that's a second undergraduate degree (in Philosophy) taken as a Masters.
I am not Robert Walker the Trump space adviser. Also I am not Robert Walker the composer. Mine is a common name and there are many “Robert Walkers”.
You can find out more about me in my Science20 profile
These lead to a fair bit of interest, and including a couple of appearances on David Livingston's Space Show. See Dr. David Livingston's Space Show - guest Robert Walker Appearances
I've started a quora blog on Mars and Space
Some of my most popular articles on Quora (all time) are my answers to
My most popular articles on Science20, currently, with from 10,000 to 100,000 views are
CONFUSIONS WITH OTHER ROBERT WALKER’S
I sometimes get confused with Robert Walker, space advisor to Donald Trump. It’s a common name and there is no connection. I am also not in any way connected with the composer Robert Walker who has a special interest in gamelan music. In both cases it’s a coincidence.
Robert Walker the Trump space adviser says we should go to the Moon first. On that I am in agreement but there the resemblance ends. My own political inclinations, as for perhaps 90% of the UK population, are with Bernie Sanders who advocates policies that have cross party support here and indeed are already implemented in the UK.
As for Robert Walker the composer - I am a completely untrained amateur composer, have written some short microtonal pieces and I once joined an amateur Gamelan orchestra, one that anyone can join who walks in off the street, and went every week for a year or two. That’s where the resemblance ends.
No, it’s not. This is an idea that’s gone a bit viral and I’ve been getting messages from people who are scared of the eclipse this August. It’s totally normal. We get an eclipse of the sun every y...
(more)No, it’s not. This is an idea that’s gone a bit viral and I’ve been getting messages from people who are scared of the eclipse this August. It’s totally normal. We get an eclipse of the sun every year or two. Many of them are total.
Often those who contact me are particularly scared because the eclipse track spans midday and they connect this with some bible passage about darkness at noon. So, it is very common for the eclipse to span midday at some point along its track too.
An eclipse of the sun is just the small shadow of our Moon moving over the surface of Earth. Sometimes the shadow cone doesn’t quite touch Earth and we get an annular eclipse. And sometimes it does touch it and we get a total eclipse. But it will only go dark for at most a minute or two, and you have to be inside the shadow when it passes by to see the total eclipse.
It’s a small shadow 70 miles across and travels across the US at supersonic speeds, over Mach 3 at times. It is just a shadow and can’t harm you, but is a spectacular natural event. “Eclipse chasers” will travel hundreds of miles to see one.
Meanwhile half the Earth is plunged into shadow for half a day on average, once a day, we call it night. It causes us no harm at all, so I hope you can understand that you can’t be harmed by experiencing two minutes and 40 seconds of darkness in the middle of the day.
If you watch the eclipse - be sure to get eclipse glasses. Only cost of the order of dollars. You may also be able to get them on the cover of astronomy magazines. You don’t sense any pain even when the back of your eye is burning - or more likely - getting bleached by UV light. You can lose your eyesight in the center of your vision temporarily, and in rare cases, permanently, by staring at the sun without protection.
For more on this: Is it safe to observe a partial solar eclipse?
The only time it’s safe to stare at the sun without eye protection is when the sun is completely blocked by the Moon and you see the corona (see below).
Though they are common, because the shadow is small, then it’s rare to see an eclipse anywhere particularly. You have to be standing within the blue eclipse track shown on the map here: this shows the eclipses from 2001 to 2020 including the US one.
The last total eclipses in the US were back in the 1960s and 1970s so young people will not have seen one. Even older people won’t have seen it unless you traveled to the eclipse track. Here is the map for those US eclipses. All the blue lines here are total eclipses. The red ones are annular, meaning that the sun is not totally blocked out.
This is NASA’s eclipse page, with lots of maps like that in the map section. Solar Eclipse Page
Because they always happen at new moon, you won’t see the moon until it starts to take a bite out of the sun. It’s lit up from behind. In the same way if you stand in the shadow of anything, you will see the darker side of it, not the sunlit side. There’s no scattered light in space, apart from a bit of light from the Earth, so the shaded side of the Moon is pitch black. It is, quite literally, behind the blue sky, so you don’t see anything of it until it passes between you and the sun.
Some people worry because there will be a total eclipse around midday - because of some Bible passage about darkness at noon. Well eclipses that span midday are very common.
First example: Solar eclipse of August 11, 1999
This eclipse was maximum at 11 am in Romania but was still total over India around midday. This was the last total eclipse in the UK
That photograph shows the corona - white rays radiating out from the Sun which you only see at times of total eclipse. If you are lucky enough to have a clear sky, you may see this awesome sight. The sky goes dark and you will even see the brightest stars in good viewing conditions.
It's rather spectacular if you get to see a total eclipse - "eclipse chasers" travel around the world to see eclipses. There are several stages to it, first partial eclipse. Then as the moon covers the sun, you get "Bailey's beads" when light shines between gaps in the mountains around the Moon often ending with a single "diamond ring" when just a tiny patch of sun is left. Then it goes dark and the sun's corona shows and you may see the brightest stars.
And yes, if you stand in just the right place, it turns dark in the middle of the day but only for a minute or so and you have to be exactly on the eclipse track to see this too.
Second example: Solar eclipse of June 21, 2001
This one had greatest eclipse at 12:04:46 so as close to noon as makes no difference - that’s when the eclipse lasted the longest for this one.
Wikipedia has lists of eclipses, so you can follow through to find any other eclipses that you are interested in: Lists of solar eclipses
This is what an eclipse looks like from space - the dark patch here includes some of the area of partial eclipse - it’s only seen as total from the very center and darkest part of the shadow.
You have to be on the narrow path of the Moon's shadow - the Moon is small and the Sun is huge, and the Moon's shadow is shaped like a cone and only just touches the Earth which is why it is so tiny. You have to be positioned within that tiny shadow to see an eclipse.
This example Solar eclipse of August 21, 2017
The maximum possible eclipse is 2 minutes 40 seconds for this one.
It’s tricky to find a place that experiences the eclipse at midday. Grand Island, Nebraska, USA Nebraska has an eclipse that starts at 12:58 and finishes at 13:01. Further east you get eclipses that start and end before midday.
But because of the transition from mountain daylight time to central daylight time, I don’t think there is anywhere that experiences a total eclipse at noon in their local time as they measure it.
If you count midday as the time of day when the sun is highest in the sky, irrespective of your time zone, then there will be a place that experiences the eclipse at that time of day though the clock may not say midday, or 1 pm or any exact time like that because of the large regions spanned by the time zones.
Here is an animated eclipse map. Notice how tiny the shadow is
And map of entire eclipse across the US
There the dark strip is the strip of totality. More detailed maps for states along the track here Total Solar Eclipse 2017 including an interactive map you can zoom into
Details here Total Solar Eclipse of 2017 Aug 21 - they warn: “The eclipse predictions presented here DO NOT include the effects of mountains and valleys along the edge of the Moon. Such corrections for the lunar limb profile may shift the limits of the eclipse path north or south by ~1-3 kilometers, and change the eclipse duration by ~1-3 seconds.”
So, yes, if you stand in just the right place, it turns dark in the middle of the day in this astronomical sense but only for a minute or two, and you have to be exactly on the eclipse track to see this, and your local clocks probably won’t say midday or an exact hour of the day either.
You have to travel to the eclipse track to see a total eclipse (unless you are already on it). Most people in the US will only see the sun partly covered - a partial eclipse. But if you are on the eclipse track, you will see a total eclipse.
DOES IT GET COLD?
Perhaps rather surprisingly, it can get a fair bit cooler, a bit like night falling, but only for a short while. Here is an example from Zambia, the temperature dropped by 15 F or about 8 C. Similar to the change from day to night. That’s the air temperature not the ground temperature.
HOW BIG IS THE SHADOW AND HOW FAST DOES IT MOVE?
The central shadow is about 70 miles wide (see Total Solar Eclipse 2017 ) and crosses the USA at the speed of Concorde, at varying speed.
This is one of the best interactive online calculators - you can click on your location to find extra details such as the path width where you are, and the speed the shadow is moving. USA - 2017 August 21 Total Solar Eclipse - Interactive Google Map - Xavier Jubier
So for instance, its speed is 2410 mph or Mach 3.14 in Western Oregon and 1402 mph or Mach 1.83 near Charleston SC. (from How fast is the shadow moving across the US during the eclipse? )
NASA will send some jets to observe the eclipse, because it’s a chance for scientists to study the solar corona for faint details that are otherwise hard to spot. NASA has a brilliant plan to make the total solar eclipse last nearly 3 times as long
However to see the eclipse for as long as possible you need a supersonic aircraft. In 1973 eight lucky astronomers were able to observe totality for 74 minutes in a supersonic Concorde aircraft in 1973 When Astronomers Chased a Total Eclipse in a Concorde
The French prototype Concorde 001 - which at that point was an experimental aircraft doing test flights, taking off for its 1973 eclipse mission. It flew at Mach 2.05, more than twice the speed of sound. This is Concorde 001 on its last flight on June 30th before it was retired on October 19th to the Air and Space Museum at Le Bourget Airport, Paris.
It was the first Concorde to fly (on March 2nd 1969) and did 249 supersonic flights in total and had 245 hours 49 minutes of supersonic flight hours in total. See Heritage Concorde. The British prototype was 002.
Photo: Jim Lesurf
One of the specially-designed instruments for observing the composition of the sun's corona. Photo: Pierre Léna
Pierre Léna wrote a book about the mission, Racing the Moon's Shadow with Concorde 001 (Astronomers' Universe)
The Concorde prototype they used with its modifed portholes is on display at the as a permanent exhibit at Le Bourget Air and Space Museum
Interviewed by motherboard vice, Léna says: "There's no aircraft flying today that would let us do what we did, nothing that can fly that fast for that long. There are military jets that can fly faster, but not with the endurance of Concorde—and of course they couldn't carry the instruments. Our record is safe for the foreseeable future."
Here is a video about their experience
So, yes, if you stand in just the right place, it turns dark in the middle of the day in this astronomical sense but only for a minute or two, and you have to be exactly on the eclipse track to see this, and your local clocks probably won’t say midday or an exact hour of the day either.
You have to travel to the eclipse track to see a total eclipse (unless you are already on it). Most people in the US will only see the sun partly covered - a partial eclipse. But if you are on the eclipse track, you will see a total eclipse.
GOING TO SEE THE ECLIPSE
It's well worth going to see if it is reasonably close to you, many people say it is a sight of a lifetime. Unless it is clouded over. In that case it just gets dark for a minute or two and you don't see anything much else.
If you do see it, then the sun gets blocked out by the moon and then you see white rays emanating from the shadow. That's the solar corona. So not totally black, you see the corona and you may see the brightest stars. If you are lucky enough to have a clear sky that is.
This can help you find the best place to see it. You need to be inside the shadow. You also need to have clear skies. So best if you can go to a place that has clear skies more often.
This is a copy of my Why the eclipse this August is a wonder of nature and not something to be scared of
See also List of the articles in my Debunking Doomsday blog to date
No, it is nonsense and BS. David Meade in his book just repeats many of the misconceptions floating around on the internet. He makes no attempt to check if they are true or not.
He thinks that the g...
(more)No, it is nonsense and BS. David Meade in his book just repeats many of the misconceptions floating around on the internet. He makes no attempt to check if they are true or not.
He thinks that the gravitational pull of the Earth is so great that an approaching entire solar system will be diverted into a loop around Earth, and he thinks that a planet approaching from the South would only be visible in a plane flying high above South America (for some reason) and lots of other nonsense things.
There is nothing here to be scared about.
Somewhat more detailed debunking here: Debunked: Nibiru will hit or fly past Earth in September (or October or November) 2017 - David Meade’s “prophecy”
Well it’s not even an astronomical theory. The thing is that it doesn’t make sense as astronomy. The whole thing is nonsense, total BS. Promulgated by youtube uploaders and bloggers who don’t have ...
(more)Well it’s not even an astronomical theory. The thing is that it doesn’t make sense as astronomy. The whole thing is nonsense, total BS. Promulgated by youtube uploaders and bloggers who don’t have the slightest clue about the basics of astronomy. To try to disprove it is to give the idea more dignity than it deserves.
It's like someone who claims to be an expert on sport, who in the next sentence says that Usain Bolt is a top seeded tennis player and won Wimbledon. If you know the basics of astronomy, the things they say are as absurd as that. They give away their complete ignorance of astronomy within a couple of sentences.
"INVISIBLE" BROWN DWARFS
By way of example, they read in genuine astronomy articles that brown dwarfs can be spotted in the infrared when far from any star even in pitch darkness. They conclude from this that they are invisible in ordinary light - that's like concluding that you are invisible because you are warm. Since when did warming something up make it invisible?
Humans are easily visible at night with infrared goggles. We can’t however be seen in pitch darkness if you see with what we call “visible light”, because we don’t fluoresce and aren’t in any other way luminous. A glow worm can be seen at night. Does this prove that we are invisible in daylight, because we can’t be seen at night?
Similarly brown dwarfs are invisible in pitch darkness far from any star but stars are visible because they shine by their own light. Brown dwarfs can be seen in infrared even in pitch darkness, just as we can be, for a similar reason.
That’s the level of reasoning that you get from these people. They don’t even look clearly at their assumptions.
CAN'T SEE ANY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A PLANET THAT NEVER COMES CLOSER THAN SIX TIMES THE DISTANCE TO NEPTUNE AND A PLANET THAT FLIES PAST EARTH
They read that astronomers think that there is a chance we may have a planet that's in an orbit that takes it at its closest to 200 au from the Sun and at its furthest, 1200 au from the sun - and if it exists, it must currently be at its furthest point or we'd have spotted it already easily. Neptune is 30 au from the Sun - so at its closest this "Planet 9" if it exists reaches more than six times the distance to Neptune - but to be not spotted yet, it has to be five or six times further away than that right now.
They conclude that this proves that they have been right all along that there is a planet in an orbit that goes from way beyond Neptune all the way to Earth's orbit and back again every 3600 years and is currently very close to us, "hiding behind the Sun" and just about to hit us or fly past us. Do you see a difference between these two scenarios? They can't seem to see any difference.
Bill Nye shows the scale of our solar system. If "Planet 9" exists then the closest it comes to Earth is six times the distance to Neptune. It must be several times further away than that at present or we'd see it already. Do you see a difference between this and the idea of a planet that comes as close to the Sun as Earth? They can't see the difference which shows the level of their understanding of astronomy.
IMPOSSIBLE PLANET
Their orbit is impossible because it would cross the orbits of all four gas giants. It can't keep missing them time after time because they have different orbital periods and it would hit one of them or be deflected out of its orbit or mess up our solar system within a million years. If our solar system ever had such a planet, it is long gone ,more than four billion years ago.
Even a 1 km comet would be easy to spot two years before it gets to Earth or Mars as we know from experience too, e.g. Siding Spring found nearly two years before its flyby of Mars and it was between 400 and 700 meters in diameter.
TWO SUNS
Then they go on to pile on the most absurd things. They say that we have two suns. I frequently get people asking me if it is true that we have a second sun and that we are in danger of it flying past Earth! Honestly. Don't they believe their own eyes? This is very easy to check. Don't stare at the Sun. Hold a finger in front of the Sun and then look to left and to right. Hold your finger at anothre angle and look above and below. Do you see a second Sun?
You have just disproved their theory that we have a second Sun.
BALDERDASH AND BULLSHIT
They say so many absurd things. They dress them up in videos with stirring sound tracks and authoritative sounding voice overs. And somehow people who know nothing about astronomy come to believe these things. Who knows if they are just unable to reason logically, or if they are hoaxing everyone else, or don't understand astronomy or what it is. Some are certainly just doing it as hoaxes for the ad revenue. And the ones who are selling Doomsday bunkers obviously have a commercial reason for running these stories. There are dozens of books on it also. It's like a minor industry, all based around balderdash and bullshit.
The common sense way to respond, when you find that someone spouts bullshit, is just to treat them as an unreliable source.
ASTRONOMY NIBIRU BULLSHIT TESTER - WOULD YOU READ A SPORTS COLUMN THAT STARTS "WHEN USAIN BOLT WON WIMBLEDON IN 2008..."?
I suggest you try out my Nibiru Bullshit Tester - and - well you don’t even need to do that. If a website or a news site or a TV channel or blog talks about a planet called Nibiru in all seriousness and they are not debunking it, then - just cross them off your list of people who know anything about astronomy.
To continue to read after that is like reading in all seriousness an alleged sports blog that starts "When Usain Bolt won Wimbledon in 2008 ...". It's even more absurd than that. Usain Bolt is a human being and could in principle win a tennis tournament, it is just not his sport. But their ideas don't even make logical sense in astronomy. They are bullshit through and through.
It’s best to just cross them off your list of people you go to when you want to know about something in astronomy. They will fill your head up with strange ideas that make no sense, and confuse you. You may waste a lot of time trying to make sense of the BS. And you may need to do a lot of unlearning of this nonsense before you begin to get some understanding of how astronomy really works.
See also
This is based on my: Is Nibiru a Hoax?
No, not with naked eye. Some people have had their eyes damaged after staring at it for minutes, perhaps particularly susceptible for some reason. Though, according to the sources, some people have...
(more)No, not with naked eye. Some people have had their eyes damaged after staring at it for minutes, perhaps particularly susceptible for some reason. Though, according to the sources, some people have stared at the sun for minutes, and in one medical experiment, several people (who were just about to have their eyes removed to prevent spread of cancer ) stared at the sun for an hour, with no harm to the retina. So, you just don’t know which you are. That’s why staring at the sun at any time is not recommended at all and you get these warnings.
Also, that’s in full sunlight not an eclipse. We seem to be particularly susceptible to eye damage during solar eclipses - perhaps because the eye opens wide in the darker conditions, an unusual situation with darkened surroundings, staring at a small bright spot in the sky. Doctors often have to deal with cases of people who have damaged their eyes by staring at the sun, during eclipses - so don’t let it happen to you.
It’s actually the UV light, short wavelength light that seems to be what cause the most harm here.
As for looking through a telescope or binoculars at the sun - that can harm you very quickly through infrared - heat. It’s like focusing light from the sun onto something with a lens to set it on fire.
The thing is we have no pain receptors in the retina. So the first you know of it, that anything is wrong, is when you notice that your vision has been affected - that you have a spot in the center of your vision where you can’t see anything.
SUN PROJECTION AND CRESCENT SHAPED DAPPLES
There are many ways to enjoy the eclipse. First the projection method. This actually happens naturally, if you are lucky enough to see it. The dapples beneath trees are actually each little images of the sun in a pinhole camera type effect from chinks in the leaves. So during a solar eclipse you see all the dapples turn to crescents like this, in ideal conditions:
Photo from here: File:IMG 1650 zonsverduistering Malta.JPG
So you can look out for those Making eclipse magic
You can also make your own simple pinhole camera to look at the sun projected onto a sheet of paper (say). Though it’s likely to be a bit faint and dim.
Or you can set up a telescope to look at the sun and then project the image onto a sheet of paper. You need to be careful you don’t damage the telescope optics. So you need some kind of a heat shield, to reduce the aperture of your telescope. Instructions here from Sky at Night.
How to make a solar projection screen
This is what it is like - you’ll see sunspots too:
ECLIPSE GLASSES AND SAFE AND UNSAFE FILTERS
What most people do is to get eclipse glasses. They make the sky very dark. You just see blackness apart from the sun.They normally tint the sun yellow-orange. It’s not really that colour at all, it’s white. But people expect it to look yellow, and so the manufacturers of these glasses tint them accordingly.
These are very low cost, just a few dollars, so it’s worth ordering a few in advance for yourself and for anyone else who might watch it with you. Or you may get them for free with an astronomy magazine. Be sure not to use them though if they have been damaged and have holes in them, even tiny chinks, and get from a reputable seller.
It is not safe to use dark plastic wrappers and the like to block out the sun. They may or may not block out the necessary frequencies and as they are not designed for that, there is no way to know.
You can use welder’s goggles but you need to be sure to get the right grade of goggle. It must be at least welder grade 14. Also stacking lower grade welder glass is not safe.
Things like sunglasses and mylar balloons, food wrappers etc are definitely not safe.
It’s far easier and safer just to use the proper eclipse glasses.
SOLAR OBSERVING TELESCOPES
You can also get a dedicated solar observing telescope or add a filter to use a normal telescope for solar observing.
Telescope owners can use a filter that goes over the the front of your telescope which blocks out 99.99% of the incoming light. However, don’t try a filter at the eyepiece end.. A filter over the eyepiece can be burnt. Don’t try looking through a telescope or binoculars with eclipse glasses. They aren’t designed for that.
Some telescopes used to come with eyepiece solar filters. They are not safe, throw them out..
VIDEO BY AN ASTRONOMER ON HOW TO OBSERVE THE SUN SAFELY - AND WHAT’S UNSAFE
Here is a video on safe and unsafe ways to do it.
The only time it’s safe to look directly at the sun during an eclipse is when the rest of the sky goes dark and the sun’s corona shows. Before that you get the diamond ring effect - even though it’s just a chink of sun, it’s still not okay to stare with naked eye vision. Your pupils are wide open and your eyes are vulnerable.
You might wonder, what about all the people who stare at the sun at sunrise and sunset?
Well the sunlight gets to you almost horizontally through the thickest part of the atmosphere, and there are often clouds in the way. Even so, people don’t tend to stare at the sun for long. They look at the clouds and many other things. And unlike a total eclipse, it’s still quite light so your pupils are contracted too.
When you watch a solar eclipse, even a partial one, your attention is all on the sun, and if it is a total eclipse or close to, then your pupils will open wide.
SUNGAZING AS A RELIGIOUS OR HEALTH PRACTICE AT SUNRISE AND SUNSET
It’s not a good idea to stare at the sun even at sunrise and sunset either - yes the light is somewhat more filtered but it’s not like looking at the sun through a safe solar filter.
You might be one of the few whose eyes are particularly susceptible to this. Some people stare at the sun as a religious observance of sungazing especially at sunrise and sunset or for their alleged health benefits. It’s an alternative healing method.
But the sun isn’t guaranteed safe at sunrise or sunset. Compare what you see at those times with what you see with eclipse glasses.
And maybe many of them do it just fine - this chap seems to have managed okay - but you might be one of the unlucky ones, as doctors occasionally see patients with eyes damaged through these religious observances.
Here is an example, of five patients treated for serious eye problems after attending a gathering of 10,000 catholics staring at the sun hoping to see a miracle. The Catholic Church warned them against attending according to this article but many did anyway and a few went blind: It's no miracle, I could see but now I am blind -
There again that’s 10,000 people and presumably they didn’t all go blind, but five, at least, did. Temporarliy anyway, and some of those might have lost some of their sight, in the area used for detailed vision and reading, permanently. If you are unlucky, you could lose the ability to read through this practice, as Isaac Newton did, temporarily, or permanently.
COULD YOU SUBSIST ON SUNLIGHT ALONE THROUGH SUNGAZING?
Some practitioners from India think it is possible to live only on sunlight, without eating, and some of these engage in sungazing.
This doesn’t make scientific sense, so if they are able to do this, it’s basically a miracle, something science can’t explain. The cells at the back of our eyes may actually get a tiny amount of energy from sunlight. There are some microbes, the haloarchaea that obtain all their energy from sunlight not by photosynthesis, but by a process very similar to the way that we see. They use bacteriorhodopsin, and our eyes use rhodopsin. It’s much the same.
Lake Hillier in Western Australia, a "pink lake". It's pink partly because of the purple haloarchaea, and partly because of red carotene accumulating in a green algae dunaliella salina.
The green algae use chlorophyll. But the haloarchaea use rhodopsin and don’t fix carbon dioxide or generate oxygen but convert light directly into energy via a “proton pump” in much the way that our eyes use to see sunlight.
But that’s just one tiny bacteria subsisting off sunlight, which indeed they can do, just fine. Perhaps the cells at the back of your eye could subsist off sunlight, but not your whole body, at least not according to scientific understanding.
There’s no way, scientifically, that your entire body could subsist from photosynthesis through your eyes. See also Sungazing - RationalWiki
Also it’s not safe to stare at it through light cloud or to stare at its reflection in a mirror or in a bowl of water.
Most of the dangerous rays of light are invisible to your eyes, and for instance a cloud that blocks out the sunlight in visible light might let the dangerous UV light through.
MEDICAL EXPERIMENT STARING AT THE SUN FOR ONE HOUR
From: Galileo, solar observing, and eye safety
“Tso and Piana asked three middle-aged people, each with an eye that was to be surgically removed to prevent the spread of malignant melanoma, to stare directly at the Sun for one hour, a day or two before the operation. To quote from their summary:
“Two of the patients sungazed with an undilated pupil, and, 24 hours later, recovered their preexposure visual acuity with no detectable scotoma. One of the patients looked at the sun with a partially dilated pupil, and 24 hours later her visual acuity dropped from 20/20 to 20/25.
“But even in that eye, whose pupil was dilated to 4 mm, acuity was back to 20/20 after another day, though the scotoma remained.
“After surgery, the eyes were examined under the microscope. Although damage to the retinal pigment epithelium was seen in every case, the photoreceptors appeared perfectly normal. The ages of the patients were 49, 55, and 57 years.
“On the other hand, there are also cases of people who stared at the Sun for only a few minutes, when it was much lower in the sky, and suffered long-lasting scotomas:”
NEWTON’S TEMPORARY BLINDNESS - UNABLE TO READ
Newton reports that he damaged his eyes to the extent that he couldn’t read, by staring at the sun, which he did repeatedly over a period of some hours, after which he stayed in total darkness for three days to try to recover. He eventually did but for some months later he still saw effects from his eye damage in dark conditions. You can read the details here: Eye problems of other early solar observers
You might well be okay like Newton eventually - but there again you might not.
DON’T EVEN GLANCE AT THE SUN THROUGH A TELESCOPE UNLESS SET UP FOR SOLAR OBSERVING WITH THE PROPER FILTERS OVER THE OBJECTIVE - BURNING LENS EXPERIMENTS
It’s especially important not to look through any kind of telescope or binoculars. In that case, it’s the infrared more than the UV, it can literally burn your retina.
This is why you must not look at the sun through a telescope unless it has a properly installed solar filter:
SUMMARY
So for most of us, the advice is to use the proper eclipse glasses to look at the sun, and only take them off for the solar corona. Or of course to look around at the crescent dapples etc. And be ready to put them back on as soon as the diamond ring effect appears again. As for projection, looking through a telescope etc - maybe you can some nearby astronomers with telescopes to show it to you through their scopes?
But you don’t need to be like David Mitchell
It’s okay to glance at the sun as happens normally in daylight.. It’s staring for it for long periods that’s the issue and this is something we don’t normally do except during a solar eclipse. Normally you can just rely on what comes natural to you, it’s so bright you just look away again naturally, unless you deliberately stare at the sun, and your eyes are kept safe.
The safety tips for observing the sun are due to accidents that happen to only a few people out of thousands, (at least 5 out of 10,000 for that Catholic sun gazing miracle seeking crowd). But they do happen, which is why doctors warn us not to stare at the sun. They want us to be safe and not be one of the people in that statistic which leads to them having to treat patients with sometimes irreversible eye damage.
And - just never look through binoculars or a telescope even for a fraction of a second, except during the solar corona. When you see the corona it is safe to look even through a wide aperture high power telescope. But you need to keep an eye on the time and be sure to look away in good time, e.g. 30 seconds before totality is due to end or some such.
We can work this out pretty much from first principles most of the way, but need to look up a couple of figures at the end. So, one way to look at it - the sun seems to rise in the east, that means...
(more)We can work this out pretty much from first principles most of the way, but need to look up a couple of figures at the end. So, one way to look at it - the sun seems to rise in the east, that means that the Earth's surface is moving towards the east as it rotates. The moon like just about all the larger moons in our solar system except Triton, orbits our planet in the same direction it rotates. So the moon also is moving more slowly towards the east, through the night sky.
From that, from basic astronomy and what we know from our experience you can then work out things like this. For instance the moon is a bit further east every time the sun rises, so that means the moon rises and sets a bit later every day.
So for the solar eclipse, well as seen from Earth yes the sun moves very slowly against the fixed stars, but does that only once a year, The moon moves through them once a month, from west to east. So its shadow at solar eclipse has to move from west to east.
But the Earth's surface is moving from West to east too. So it's a question of which does this faster. Although the Earth rotates once a day, and the Moon orbits only once a month, 28 times more slowly, the Moon is also much further away. Earth's radius is 6,371 km. The distance to the Moon is 384,400 km which is about 60 times further away.
This means the Moon has to complete a circle of radius 60 times Earth's radius in a time that is only 28 times Earth's rotation speed.
So the Moon is moving much faster through space than the Earth's surface is, about twice as fast. So the Moon crosses the sun faster than Earth's surface moves so the shadow beats Earth, at quite a lick. It actually reaches over Mach 3 at times, in its travel from West to East, traveling at a speed of 2410 mph or Mach 3.14 in Western Oregon
This is one of the best interactive online calculators - you can click on your location to find extra details such as the path width where you are, and the speed the shadow is moving.
USA - 2017 August 21 Total Solar Eclipse - Interactive Google Map - Xavier Jubier
The shadow is only 70 miles across and is moving faster than Concorde at its fastest. That’s why it’s so short, maximum time of totality for this one is 2 minutes and 40 seconds.
At that speed, A military jet can match its speed but can’t keep it up for long.
Nevertheless, NASA will send some jets to observe the eclipse, because it’s a chance for scientists to study the solar corona for faint details that are otherwise hard to spot. NASA has a brilliant plan to make the total solar eclipse last nearly 3 times as long
However to see the eclipse for as long as possible you need a supersonic aircraft capable of long haul flight at supersonic speeds. In 1973 eight lucky astronomers were able to observe totality for 74 minutes in a supersonic Concorde aircraft in 1973 When Astronomers Chased a Total Eclipse in a Concorde
The French prototype Concorde 001 - which at that point was an experimental aircraft doing test flights, taking off for its 1973 eclipse mission. It flew at Mach 2.05, more than twice the speed of sound. This is Concorde 001 on its last flight on June 30th before it was retired on October 19th to the Air and Space Museum at Le Bourget Airport, Paris.
It was the first Concorde to fly (on March 2nd 1969) and did 249 supersonic flights in total and had 245 hours 49 minutes of supersonic flight hours in total. See Heritage Concorde. The British prototype was 002.
Photo: Jim Lesurf
One of the specially-designed instruments for observing the composition of the sun's corona. Photo: Pierre Léna
Pierre Léna wrote a book about the mission, Racing the Moon's Shadow with Concorde 001 (Astronomers' Universe)
The Concorde prototype they used with its modifed portholes is on display at the as a permanent exhibit at Le Bourget Air and Space Museum
Interviewed by motherboard vice, Léna says: "There's no aircraft flying today that would let us do what we did, nothing that can fly that fast for that long. There are military jets that can fly faster, but not with the endurance of Concorde—and of course they couldn't carry the instruments. Our record is safe for the foreseeable future."
Here is a video about their experience
More about the eclipse here
Note the question I originally answered was about emojis, or the graphical symbols specially designed to convey emotions,designed by artists.
Emoticons like :-) of course can be used here as with any site that permits text editing.
But I see most of the answers here are about emojis and that’s probably what is intended. So, you can embed them as images.
http://unicode.org/emoji/charts/...
Perhaps that might be useful on occasion? For instance Facebook permits emojis, but not mixed in with the text. The unicode emojis are just black and white symbols anyway and rather small and hard to read.
Here on Quora, they have to be only one to a line because quora puts images in new lines and doesn’t let you mix images with text freeform.
I agree that it seems that it doesn’t let you include them as characters.
There are many Buddhist schools of philosophy in the Tibetan Buddhist traditions. But they approach it differently from Western philosophy.
We’d call them schools of philosophy that is, as it is the...
(more)There are many Buddhist schools of philosophy in the Tibetan Buddhist traditions. But they approach it differently from Western philosophy.
We’d call them schools of philosophy that is, as it is the closest we have. But it’s not really quite the same idea.
For instance they may analyse things into conceptual atoms and moments of consciousness, or an approach rather similar to Idealist philosophy, that everything is not different in substance from mind.
I forget them now. But unlike Western philosophy, they aren’t an attempt at a final answer, a “theory of everything” in philosophy at least not in the sense of developing a theory. The aim isn’t to understand a theory intellectually, but to wake up and realize something.
Rather, they are a form of meditation. It’s a bit like the sand mandala.
Buddhist monks will often set up an elaborate Mandala. They may spend days building up an elaborate mandala. Then they just wash all the coloured sand away. This is a shortened version with just a few clips. The whole thing probably took anything from many hours to days.
In the same way, you build up an elaborate philosophy - everything as atoms, or everything as mind, or something more subtle than those ideas. And meditate on it.
But then at the end you see through it and all that intellectual support dissolves away.
It’s rather refreshing after Western philosophy or I found it so.
And the thing is, that we all have a kind of philosophy in this sense already. Indeed that’s where the confusions come from, that we build up a kind of elaborate philosophy of how things work and what we are and how we relate to everything else and it seems so natural we don’t see it as such. Our world changes as a result. Sometimes that’s obvious, for instance when you are terrified or angry, then the whole world seems scary orthreatening. Things loom up and magnify. You can jump in alarm on sight of a shadow. In a way your actual perception changes as a result of the way you are intellectualizing and reacting. Your perception of the world itself, others, and yourself.
The Buddhist path is to do with seeing through this confusion, to see a truth that’s been there all along.
One particular meditation practice of this sort is the practice of “progressive stages of meditation on emptiness”. For some schools of Tibetan Buddhism it’s four stages and for others, it’s five. The emptiness there isn’t nihilism but rather, seeing through the projections and crazy things we overlay, like the way things loom up and seem sharp edged and dangerous when you are angry.
I just did a bit of meditation like that. Most of my meditation has been just the simple breath meditation which happened to be more suited to me, the same meditation beginners do. I used to go to Quaker meetings before when I was Christian and the way they sit in silence is very similar to this basic meditation I’m taking about, though they have different ways of conceptualizing it.
In Therevadhan schools it’s a bit different. They don’t build up these elaborate philosophies in the same way as the Tibetan Buddhists do.
But they too have this idea of the truth, the goal of the path, which just “is” and was true all along but you never saw it.
And for the Tibetan Buddhist traditions - well all of this is just a meditation technique. It’s not an attempt to find a philosophical “theory of everything” in the sense of Western academic philosophy.
That’s not the aim in Buddhism. If that was Buddha’s path, to develop an elaborate intellectual theory, it would be something you could forget. You get Alzheimers, or you get old or a bit tired and you forget how the intellectual theory works. It would be something impermanent and dependent on conditions and part of Samsara, conditioned existence.
Nor is it nihilist, or existentialist. It’s not the idea that the ideas dissolve away because everything is valueless or that there is no point in doing anything. That’s just another build up of complex ideas and a tangle of ideas too.
Though they build up elaborate detailed theories and complex meditation instructions, the aim all along is to help the practitioner along the path in a practical sense.
Instead you may get a glimpse of the path of true wisdom and true compassion perhaps when the elaborate intellectual ideas dissolve away like a sand mandala.
We are not at all vulnerable to a dinosaur killer asteroid. They have already found all the asteroids of 10 km and larger and none are headed our way at least until 2200.
We can’t map out all the co...
(more)We are not at all vulnerable to a dinosaur killer asteroid. They have already found all the asteroids of 10 km and larger and none are headed our way at least until 2200.
We can’t map out all the comets in the same way, but comets at present are very rare. As of 3rd August 2017, we know of 106 comets that do regular flybys of Earth out of 16,468 total so one in 155 is a comet (these numbers change frequently, as they find new asteroids, for instance, they have found five new asteroids since 1st August). The chance of an impact by a 10 km asteroid per century is about 1 in a million. So that makes it a tiny negligible chance of 1 in 155 million that Earth is hit by a comet as big as 10 km in the next century. We’d spot a comet that large many years in advance also, for instance, the much smaller Siding Spring 400 - 700 meter comet that did a close flyby of Mars was spotted on 3 January 2013, a year and nine months before its flyby on 19 October 2014.
Siding Spring seemed to have a tiny chance of hitting Mars when first discovered, but as they refined its orbit, they found it would miss. Since Mars is a very small target, that’s what you’d expect. It’s the same for Earth. If we found a small comet headed our way, we’d know of this many years in advance, and to start with we might not know if it would hit, but as astronomers refined the calculation, the most likely thing always is that we find that it misses.
Asteroids as large as a hundred kilometers can’t hit us at all. The craters on the Moon are from well over 3 billion years ago and those big asteroids have all been cleared out of Earth’s orbit long ago. The only ones left of that size are in the asteroid belt, asteroids like Ceres, Vesta, Pallas etc. We are protected from ones beyond Jupiter by Jupiter itself. For details, see Debunked: Earth could be struck by a huge asteroid hundreds of kilometers across
Yes there are people monitoring them. What’s more, they publish all their observations as they make them. Everything is done in public. It involves teams of professional astronomers from many countries world wide and then many amateurs. The asteroids are found by big telescopes like Pan STARRS. The amateurs are mainly involved in tracking them, as there are so many asteroids to track, that professionals can’t keep up with the task with the big telescopes.
CURRENT IMPACT RISKS
It is easy to keep up to date with the latest news by visiting this page:
Current Impact Risks. Then click “Use unconstrained settings”.
This is the first place to go if you see one of those stories. It is automatically updated with all the new observations.
It is ordered with the entry of most risk first. So you just need to look to see if the first entry in the table is orange or red. As of writing (August 2017), this has never yet happened.
DETAILS OF HOW THIS WORKS
If any of them go red, a collision is certain, but how much of a threat depends on the number.
If the number is 8, it is either localized on the land and large enough to form a small crater, or if it falls in the sea, it could cause a tsunami. Sooner or later we are bound to see a level 8 red alert, as these are expected to happen about every fifty years.
Often these are not even noticed, because the impacts are in remote parts of the world. Much of the world is still desert or sparsely inhabited. But with our population growing, there's more and more of a chance that one of these impacts will come close to a populated area. If one of these were to hit a city, it would be devastating.
It's a bit like being able to predict a normal terrestrial hurricane, volcanic eruption, earthquake or tsunami - with the extra twist that if we can get enough data, we can actually predict it decades in advance. It’s also the one disaster we can not only predict, but prevent as well. With our space technology, we may be able to deflect the asteroid and prevent the disaster altogether if we can predict it long in advance. If not, at least we have plenty of time to evacuate the impact zone and we would know the exact date and time of the impact to the minute.
If the entry is red, and the number is 9 or a 10, then it's a much more serious threat, either regional, threatening an entire country, or global. These are rare. The chances are that we probably won't see one of these in this century.
If the number is orange, then there is a significant possibility of a major impact, but it is not yet confirmed. Again, the severity depends on the number.
If any entry is yellow, then it merits attention by astronomers, but there is at least a 99% chance that it will miss (for levels 3 and 4) and it may be far less likely than that to hit (for level 2). It may be of significance to the public if the potential impact is less than a decade away. However, since it is so improbable, the chances are that it will soon be reassigned to level 0. For instance if there is a 99% chance it will miss, then there is a 99% chance that it will soon be reassigned to level 0.
The Near-Earth Asteroid 2004 MN4 briefly reached level 4 in 2004, so it went right up to the highest level in the yellow section, setting a record. But it was soon reassigned first to level 1 and then by 2006, to level 0. See 99942 Apophis (on wikipedia) for the details (2004 MN4 was a provisional name, and it was renamed to 99942 Apophis).
This should be no great surprise as, after all, there was a 99% chance of it missing Earth even when the news first broke.
If (as is usual) all the entries are coloured blue (very small objects), or white or green then there is no confirmed impact threat for the next 100 years.
It's quite common for an asteroid to reach level 1, green briefly. This means that it will do a close flyby of Earth, with a collision extremely unlikely.
Another thing to look out for. Sometimes astronomers make an announcement saying that an asteroid is definitely going to miss Earth, but that it could miss by anything between a few thousand kilometers and a few million kilometers. How can astronomers be so uncertain of the flyby distance, and yet know it will miss?
Well that’s because the largest uncertainty is usually about its exact speed along its orbital track - and so, about where Earth will be when it crosses close by to Earth’s orbit.
An analogy I use - it’s like driving along a road that crosses a railway track on a bridge. If you cross that bridge every day at the same time, and a train also goes under it every day at that same time, say 6 pm, then from time to time you will cross the bridge exactly at the same time the train goes under the bridge.
But it just needs the train to be delayed by a minute, or you to be delayed by a minute, and the train, even traveling at a modest speed of say 60 km per hour will be a kilometer away when you cross the track.
In none of those encounters will you ever be hit by the train because you are on a bridge and the train track is below the bridge. It’s like that.
For more about all these levels, see Torino Scale.
For more on this see my Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
No, there is nothing at all to worry about. Nothing astronomical of any significance at all happens on that date. The only thing that happens is actually an absence of anything interesting - the vi...
(more)No, there is nothing at all to worry about. Nothing astronomical of any significance at all happens on that date. The only thing that happens is actually an absence of anything interesting - the visible planets are all briefly so close to the sun that they can’t be seen easily.
Short summary - planetary alignments can be a pretty sight in the night sky. But they are of no astronomical significance and can’t harm us in any way at all. This particular alignment is an alignment with the sun as well, which means that there is not even anything to see. It’s rather an absence of anything interesting for astronomers who like to observe planets.
The book of Revelation is meant a a message of hope, not despair. It’s so enigmatic though, that you can fit almost any message to it and claim that’s what it is saying. The Bible is not noted for its astronomy, and they didn’t even know that meteorites came from space, thought comets were like high clouds, and they didn’t know that Earth orbited the Sun so didn’t know it was a planet. It doesn’t even have eclipse predictions in it, although a few astronomers at the time could do them (though not nearly as accurately as us). It’s just not a work of astronomy at all. It has much to say in other ways that many people find of great value, but to look to the Bible for a guide to astronomy is to look in the wrong place I think.
DETAILS
There is a very rough alignment with the planets and the Moon spread out over the sky from Leo to Libra. However, there will be nothing to see in the sky because the sun is right in the middle. It's a non event visually, most interesting as one of the few times when you won't see any of the planets or the Moon.
Amateur astronomers like alignments though they have no astronomical significance, just because they look interesting and they can get nice pictures of them. This is the most uninteresting sky you could possibly have if you are interested in visual alignments.
As for the idea of it being a “sign” - this is just a work of imagination and numerology. His page is here: Signs of the End. It spins a story out of the book of Revelations, which is notorious for having so many enigmatic statements in it that you can interpret to mean almost anything.
There are many different ideas on what it actually meant - was a late addition to the Bible. Views about it include:
If you aren’t a Christian then you don’t need to interpret it at all. After all, it was written specifically for Christians.
It is generally agreed it is meant as a message of hope, so if you find it scary, something has gone wrong. The Eastern Orthodox church has gone so far as to exclude it from its lectionary - passages that can be read from the pulpit, because it is so easily misunderstood.
There’s nothing of any astronomical significance on that date. Yes, all the brighter planets are hidden in the bright area around the sun in the sky, so won’t be visible. That’s all. Here is a screenshot
Charts of the Night Sky - shows how all the main visible planets will be hidden in the bright area of the sky around the Sun briefly on 23rd September 2017.
It has no meaning at all. Unless you think you can read signs in the sky like reading signs in tea leaves. It’s not even a pretty sight to look out for in the night sky. It’s rather an absence of anything of interest as you won’t be able to see it because the sun blots it out.
They have just made up a story around the stars and the planets. The constellations themselves are just patterns of stars as seen from Earth. The stars are constantly moving. They are at different distances from us.
This shows how the big dipper is changing:
And this is Orion
More examples here: The fault in our stars: Why the Big Dipper could become the Big Duck
Most of the constellations are not made up of stars that are close together in space either. Look at the constellation from a slightly different angle, if we could travel away from the Sun and it would look different again.
“A scientific visualization of the Orion constellation as viewed from a three dimensional perspective. The true space distribution of the constellation is revealed by circling around the stars.
“The camera begins with a pan across the sky to Orion. The lines of the stick figure constellation are drawn in, which unfortunately gives the viewer an impression of a 2D drawing. As the camera slowly begins to circle around the centroid of the stars, the stick figure quickly breaks into a long extended 3D structure. The camera backs up to keep the entire figure onscreen for the complete circle. At the end of the circle, the camera pushes forward to finish back at the location of the Earth/Sun.
“Note that the stars are rendered with 3D distance dimming relative to the camera position. Stars get brighter or fainter as they are closer or farther from the camera viewpoint. Also, to avoid an obvious distraction, the Sun is not included in the visualization.”
The planets are much closer to us than any of the stars. To say that Jupiter is “in Virgo” is like pointing at a distant mountain and saying your finger is in the mountain. It just means that your finger is between your eyes and the mountain.
It’s like looking at a cloudy sky and seeing clouds that look like fortresses or houses, or boats or animals - and then making up a story about it. Google’s “Deep Dream” generator can turn clouds into images of various creatures:
That could be a fun thing to do but the clouds are not affected by your story in any way. In the same way making up stories about the stars and planets makes no difference to the stars or planets and doesn’t mean that they endanger us in any way at all.
Planetary alignments are very common. For instance there was one early this year with all five visible planets Five planets align: how to see this spectacular celestial show. They are of no astronomical significance but amateur astronomers enjoy watching them.
This is about Muslim views on the Bible Books of Revelation - for them the “Book of Revelation” is not one of their “Books of Revelation”. Islamic view of the Christian Bible. And it’s obviously not a Jewish sacred text. And for any other religion, well they don’t accept the Bible as a sacred text at all, not for themselves, just for Christians, so why should they pay any attention to it?
The book of Revelation, it's a notoriously enigmatic book and you can fit almost any "prediction" you like to it, and many Christians don't think it was meant to predict the future, and others think it was meant as a warning of events that happened already in the first century BC. Whatever the truth of that, at any rate there’s a huge problem of false prophets in modern Christianity, with the Bible itself warning about them, and numerous false prophecies for the last 2000 years of the end of the world. The Eastern Orthodox church has gone so far as to exclude Revelations from its "lectionary" - passages of the Bible that can be read from the pulpit
If you are Christian, then Revelations should be a message of hope, not fear and despair. If you aren't Christian, there is no need to try to interpret it at all as it is written for Christians. Not even Jews or Muslims accept Revelations as a sacred book.
And the Bible is not noted for its astronomical predictions. Remember that back then, they didn’t know that meteorites came from deep space but thought they came from volcanoes or stones picked up by strong winds. They thought that comets were atmospheric phenomena like high clouds. They didn’t know that Earth orbited the Sun, so they didn’t know it was a planet.
The Bible doesn’t even have predictions of eclipses in it, or anything astronomical at all, as far as I know. It’s just not an astronomical prediction book. There are ancient texts that do, not nearly as good as modern predictions but good for their time. But this is simply not the Bible’s strong point.
See also Debunked - The world will end because the Bible (or some other sacred book) says so - which goes into more details about Revelations.
This is a copy of my Debunked - an alignment of the visible planets behind the sun on 23rd September 2017 is a sign of the end of the world
You could do. But a much easier approach is to write your details as a comment on the question. Then link to that comment as your question source.
You can find the link to the comment from the date ...
(more)You could do. But a much easier approach is to write your details as a comment on the question. Then link to that comment as your question source.
You can find the link to the comment from the date or time just below your name after you post the comment.
I’ve done that in my question here.
“Which Tank will Will Fill up First? (example with 12 tanks, A to L, see question source for image)
It’s a question that makes no sense at all without the image. But rather than link to an image on an external site, where it might be lost through link rot, I just put the image into a comment on the question and then linked to that comment.
Anyway you can do that with anything that you’d previously have as a question detail. Far better than putting it on an external non quora site.
I describe this and other solutions in more detail in my answer to Why were question details removed from Quora on August 3, 2017?
Yes it can be. Depends on the situation. For instance a natural response to this question is to say “What particularly do you have in mind as an example?”
Do put in more details.
I know Quora has rem...
(more)Yes it can be. Depends on the situation. For instance a natural response to this question is to say “What particularly do you have in mind as an example?”
Do put in more details.
I know Quora has removed the option to add question details, but you can put in details in a comment and then link to the comment as the “question source”. To get a link to the comment, look for the date or time below your name after you post it.
I can think of a number of other ways it could happen.
E.g.: “What should I say in such and such a situation?” - the best answer might be “Ask a question such as …”
Or, if it is a question in algebra, say, someone might ask a question back so as to encourage them to think about the problem rather than just learn a solution parrot fashion.
Other answers might give the full solution, but the ones with questions can be interesting to read, help you understand the problem more deeply.
Probably lots of other ways.
This is a recent meme that’s getting shared on facebook and elsewhere. Repeating the image from the question source:
This is a question that has gone viral recently. Most people answer “G”.
But look ...
(more)This is a recent meme that’s getting shared on facebook and elsewhere. Repeating the image from the question source:
This is a question that has gone viral recently. Most people answer “G”.
But look closely, as the question says. Many of the pipes are blocked - the line that blocks off D from C is not a mistake.
To find the real answer (this is assuming a low flow rate, as after all it is shown as a drip in the diagram):
From A to B to C is straightforward. None of them can fill before the next one.
J is a bit more complex. But as you fill J, as soon as the water rises to the outlet to L it overflows to L. So it can never get any higher. Yes, its level also rises in the outlet tube leading to I, but it can never get high enough to overflow to I.
So it flows to L, which in turn fills F.
So which fills first, L or F?
By the time F is full, L will only be partly full (with the water at the same level for both).
So your F is the answer.
This video shows the idea, an animation by Nick Rossi using a physics engine, Algodoo
It doesn't quite flow like a real fluid, as he says, but it's enough to get the answer and show how it works.
Here is another animation Which will fill first? from THE FLOW... by CorneliaXaos
That answers the question, since it shows a dripping tap at a slow flow rate. But let’s go off on a tangent.
WHAT HAPPENS IF THE WATER IS POURED INTO A AT A FASTER FLOW RATE
If the flow is very fast then obviously A will fill first. However, could any of the others fill up first before F and before A?
It’s’ governed by the Hagen–Poiseuille equation so long as
All those conditions seem to apply. The pipes are substantially longer than their diameter which is one of the most important requirements. And they are narrow, and the fluid is water.
Under those conditions
Or in short, the flow rate for laminar flow, in a pipe significantly longer than its diameter, is proportional to the pressure difference, and so to the head of water, but it is also inversely proportional to the length of the pipe.
(it also depends on the radius of the pipe and the viscosity of the water but those are the same for all our pipes).
Techy details. The equation is:
There L is the length of the pipe and R is its radius.
Q is the flow rate (what we are looking for).
ΔP is the difference in pressure between the two ends of the pipe, which for water is proportional to the difference in height of the inlet and the outlet.
Finally μ is the dynamic viscosity
All of those are constant (the pipes are all the same radius, and the viscosity is constant) except for L, the length of the pipe, Q which we are interested in and ΔP.
So our equation simplifies to Q = c ΔP / L, where c is a constant which is the same for all the pipes in our example because they are all the same radius.
Double the length of the pipe and you halve the flow rate. Double the head and you double the flow rate.
So now for instance, can L fill at any flow rate?
Its outlet is a very long pipe. Even if L is nearly full of water ,the head of water in F will mean the difference in heads between L and F is quite small even if F is nearly full and L is likewise.
Its inlet is a much shorter pipe. Whether L can fill will depend on whether we can get J to have a high head to increase the flow rate of L's inlet pipe to more than that of its outlet pipe. But, at least at first sight, it would seem that such a high flow rate could mean that one of the other tanks earlier in the chain could fill first
So - it’s quite a finely balanced question, and hard to answer.
A obviously can fill first with a very fast flow rate, just fill it faster than it can empty.
Well we can actually try this out with a real world experiment :).
Well we can actually try this out with a real world experiment :).
Prozix has made a 3D printed version of the puzzle. If you have a 3D printer you can download it here and print it out and test it yourself: Answer to the question Which one fill First / water equilibrium system by prozix
I don’t have a 3D printer but he has uploaded some videos.
First this is what happens with a slow flow rate
Note that at 22 seconds in, J nearly fills briefly.
If you look closely, you see that a bubble forms in the outlet from J to L, which makes sense, it’s a downward pipe and air is buoyant. The bubble then gets pushed out into L and then bursts.
This shows the bubble just before it bursts (you can show the video at 1080p from the Settings)
So - if the pipes are very thin - or the flow is just right - that might lead to J filling right there, if you can arrange it to fill before the bubble disperses.
So even at a slow rate we have something anomalous already, though its because of a bubble.
But what happens at faster flow rates? I asked in a comment to the video, and Prozix was interested and answered with a new video
At 28 seconds in, at one of the flow rates, then L and F fill at the same time.
Here, it all makes sense up to J. J can’t fill (apart from that possibility due to the bubble) at this stage because the pipe from C to J has only a tiny head above its inlet. It’s outlet is about twice as long as its inlet, perhaps more.
Aside: If C was nearly full, J would start to fill, and if we could have the level of water stay below the outlet into L while J fills, then C with its shorter pipe could continue to fill J even when it is nearly full. But as it is now, there is no chance of J filling.
So that makes sense. But how can F fill at the same time as L? That's more mysterious.
The pipe from L to F is three times the length of the pipe from J to L. Meanwhile, in the situation shown here, the head from J to L is about double the head from L to F.
So by the Hagen Pousseville equation again, the flow rate from L to F should be about two thirds of the flow rate from J to L in this situation where J is half full and both L and F are almost full.
So you expect L to fill faster than F.
So, I don’t think they can get into this situation at all, with a steady flow into L. There must be something going on that doesn’t fit our assumptions of laminar flow, or something else such as a bubble forming.
Let’s look at what lead up to this. If you look at the video, L fills faster than F to start with, keeping nearly the same head from L to F as from J to L.
L is clearly filling faster than F and is on track to beat it. There is no sign of any bubbles in the inlet to L.
But then a little while later you get this (25 seconds in)
Now F is filling faster than J. Something has happened to reduce the flow rate into L, which then permits the two levels between L and F to equalize.
But the head going into L hasn’t changed. Also the input pipe to L is full and there are no bubbles. I think the only possible answer is turbulence.
You can see waves forming in J so maybe that means there’s a bit of turbulence impeding the flow from J to L, especially since the water level for J is exactly at the level for the outlet to L. What are your thoughts?
This is what happened with a moderately fast flow rate:
Here is the video starting at that point.
All of A, B, C, J, L and F are just about full. B, L and F started to overflow first and I think L just about beat the other two though it was almost simultaneous. In this frame you can see L just about to overflow and the other two though they have the water raised above the level of the top, haven’t yet actually started to flow down the side.
So how do we understand that as a possible state in terms of the flow rates? Back to our diagram again
With A, B, C, J, L and F all filled, then A to B to C to J all have the same length of pipe and same head (height difference of the water in the tanks above inlet and outlet) so have the same flow rate. J to L has around 2.5 times the head of C to J, and the pipe is around 2.5 times the length, so the flow out of J is about the same as the flow into it, and the difference in head between the top of J and the outlet to I is small. From L to F, the difference in head is about the same as for C to J (which we already know is about the same as the flow from J to L) but the pipe is far longer, so L shouldn’t be able to empty as fast as it fills, and the water flows out of J faster than it flows out of L, so L should fill before J.
From L to F, the difference in head is about the same as for C to J but the pipe is far longer, so L shouldn’t be able to empty as fast as it fills, so it should fill long before J fills,
So if the flow rate is high enough for J to fill like this, L should fill before J and F doesn’t get a look in.
So how could it happen? Well it could be the bubble from J to L, slows down the flow out of J so that J fills first before L.
As for F filling, how did that happen? Let’s look at it again:
The head from J to L is far higher than from L to F and the pipe is shorter, so the flow into L should be a lot more than the flow out of L to F. So it seems impossible for F to fill like this. It's not the bubble - the two tanks fill up reasonably steadily at the same rate. You can watch the video at quarter speed to check. Click the Settings icon in the lower-right corner, then click the Speed selector.
Perhaps at this flow rate, its the double kink in the pipe from J to L causing more turbulence and so slowing down the input to L? What do you think? That could also help explain why J fills at this flow rate, if the pipe from J to L, has a slower flow rate than you’d expect from its length and head. What do you think? Do say in the comments.
Even K can fill, though it is pretty hard to do. This is with a very strong flow into A, and several of the others have been overflowing for some time. They have turned off the inlet pipe at this point.
Amusingly, in the real world, E ends up half full too after some time of running it at a high flow rate with the water overflowing from A.
Here is the complete video
So far the only confirmed alternatives to F are A (obviously) and L (pretty sure it wins at the moderate flow rate).
That’s just a start. There are many other things to try
NOTE
If you see anything in this to correct, however small or important it is, please either suggest an edit for my answer or say in a comment. Thanks!
Just to say - for old questions, the details get moved to a comment automatically. It seems to take a while for that to happen, so you may see no comments, and a day later the old details appear as...
(more)Just to say - for old questions, the details get moved to a comment automatically. It seems to take a while for that to happen, so you may see no comments, and a day later the old details appear as a question comment.
Some questions make no sense without the details. E.g. questions such as: “What is this animal?” with a photograph uploaded by the questioner.
There is no way to fix that by editing the question, no matter what the limit as you can’t put a photograph into a question.
SOLUTION 1: QUESTION DETAILS AS COMMENT, LINK TO COMMENT AS QUESTION SOURCE
The best solution I’ve seen so far is to put the question details in as a comment on the question. Then link to that comment in the source.
You can find the link to the comment by right clicking on the date or time shown below the name of the author of the comment.
You can see how it works with this question - which had a couple of images. Author wanted to know if the animal was a possum.
What is this animal? Is it a possum?
It obviously needed that photo (and their other one) just to make sense of the question.
I rewrote the title to say (see question source) and updated the question source to link to a comment into which I inserted the two photographs which I found from the log (by appending /log to the url)
This is how you find the link to the comment:
This was the result:
What is this animal? Is it a possum? (see question source for photos)
It’s a specially good very simple example of a situation where the question is a natural one that someone will want to ask: “What is this” with some photographs they took of it. All such questions will make no sense without the details. Well this is a way to fix past questions like that and to ask new ones.
Sadly it doesn’t embed the photographs into the question itself, but it’s better than nothing.
For an example involving text, which I have just fixed in the same way, see Are the tenses and punctuation in this English paragraph correct? (See question source)
There are many budding authors and the answers to such questions are important, and you learn by seeing how it is done in specific examples like that.
A general question of the type “how do you punctuate paragraphs” would be too vague to answer.
This ingenious solution goes back to a suggestion by Joachim Pense - in a comment -
SOLUTION 2 (NOT RECOMMENDED): ADDING THE DETAILS IN AN ANSWER AND LINKING TO THE ANSWER AS THE QUESTION SOURCE
Of course its awkward to have the photograph on a separate page. I expect those who answer questions like this will start putting copies of the photograph at the head of their answers, resulting in lots of answers with duplicate photos in them.
I did a new question of this type myself, it’s another type of question that just makes no sense at all without an image. You simply can’t ask the question without the image and the image is best put on Quora rather than some external site.
“Which Tank will Will Fill up First? (example with 12 tanks, A to L, see question source for image)
As you’ll see I duplicated the tank image in my answer to the question.
To help deal with that issue, you could add the image in an answer instead of a comment and link to the answer - it’s slightly abusing the question format. But you could phrase it as an answer as in “This is the photograph from the question. My answer is that it might be a possum, what do you think?”
I think though that they might complain if you have an answer as a question source, I don’t know, but that’s why I’ve said “not recommended”.
Alternatively, just do an answer to your own question with the image or details, to get it started. Even if you don’t know the answer, you can include the image and say you don’t know and that’s why you are asking the question. It will help get it off to a good start.
There are many other questions like that such as “How do I punctuate this paragraph” or “Where am I going wrong in this complex maths reasoning” or “should I buy this product - I’ve been told by friends that it has these flaws (bulleted list) - are they right?”
Indeed many scientific, technical and mathematical questions, questions on medicine, art, poetry, literature, architecture, music etc etc.
I think they should encourage question details of the right sort myself. To find a way to encourage details that are necessary to questions and discourage unnecessary details, though I’m not sure how that’s best achieved.
SOLUTION 3 QUORA BLOG POST
Another solution is to write a blog post. Everyone on quora can start new blogs. Have a question details blog post and put your details there and link to it as the question source. Then it can be as long as you like. It’s like an answer with formatting tools ready to hand (not easily accessible for comments except using copy and paste) but there’s no risk of quora having an issue with it by linking to an answer as a question source - though I don’t know if they will have problems with that as I haven’t tried.
You can combine that with a tentative answer that includes the image, but not linked to as the question source, for questions where that is appropriate.
SOLUTION 4 (NOT RECOMMENDED!) MISUSE OF THE ANSWER WIKI
I’ve also seen some questions where they misuse the answer wiki to embed an image or text so you can see it on the question page. Put the question details at the head of the answer wiki.
It seems likely to me that Quora won’t permit this once they get around to reviewing such questions. It’s a neat solution otherwise as it basically replicates the question details as they were before. Thought I should mention it for completeness.
WHATEVER WORK AROUND YOU DO, BEST DONE ON QUORA AS A COMMENT, (ANSWER?)OR BLOG POST
I think this solution of using a comment on the question as a question source is far far better than trying to create a copy of the question details off site and then linking to that.
RECOMMENDATION - MAKE USE OF EXTENDED 250 CHARACTER LIMIT FOR QUESTIONS
For instance for the possum question:
(rephrasing of the question suggested by Tim Bushell)
THIS NEW CHANGE MAKES QUORA VULNERABLE TO LINK ROT AND SPAMMING
I don’t understand the reason for implementing it in quite the way they did. It’s encouraging people who ask questions which need details to create the details off quora on some other platform, e.g. their private blog, or facebook or whatever and link to that as the question source.
The great thing about quora is the way it copies images into answers and questions if you link to an image off site. There’s such a problem of link rot on the web, why encourage people to post links to off wiki sites instead of just putting the image or text into the question details themselves?
It also seems likely to be abused too as you don’t normally have to click through to a link to a site off of quora. It’s very rare that I’ve had to do that to answer a question, even if it’s a youtube video then it is embedded in quora. You could end up on a site that asks you to pay to see the content, or spams you, or a site with pornography, or it could just be that it’s on a social site like facebook and you find you have to join to see the photograph.
After this change, any question that has details, even if it is just a photograph or a paragraph of text or a youtube video will require you to click on a link. The link could go anywhere (unless you look at it carefully to check it is a quora url or a youtube link) just to see what the details are.
It also could take the reader to another Q/A site that permits you to enter the details, like Yahoo Answers or stackexchange etc, so you end up on a different Q/A site and end up reading the answer there instead of on Quora so it could lead to Quora losing customers if that becomes prevalent - and how can they complain if someone does that?
IT’S DETRIMENTAL TO INTERESTING CAREFULLY THOUGHT OUT QUESTIONS
Also as someone who has written many answers - often the most interesting questions to answer are the ones that have details - the author of the question cared enough about their question to go into some more detail about what the question was - or it’s an interesting and complex question that needs details.
For instance a detailed question about some topic in science that is more in depth and doesn’t just ask the obvious newbie questions on the subject. Not just a question you could answer by typing your question into google, but a detailed question that you have to ask an expert in person.
This change favours the sort of question where a decent answer will often be “just search in google”, with less of the detailed questions that can only be asked on places like quora.
So - at any rate this fix to do the details as a comment, and then set the question source as a link to that comment does keep the details on quora and avoids issues of link rot. Why didn’t they do it like this automatically? Could they still, or is it too late?
It’s also a way to ask questions like this in future on Quora.
The best solution I’ve seen so far is to put the question details in as a comment on the question. Then link to that comment in the source.
You can find the link to the comment by right clicking on ...
(more)The best solution I’ve seen so far is to put the question details in as a comment on the question. Then link to that comment in the source.
You can find the link to the comment by right clicking on the date or time shown below the name of the author of the comment.
You can see how it works with this question - which had a couple of images. Author wanted to know if the animal was a possum.
What is this animal? Is it a possum?
It obviously needed that photo (and another one).
I rewrote the title to say (see question source) and updated the question source to link to a comment into which I inserted the two photographs which I found from the log (by appending /log to the url)
Then at the end of the comment I added
“For the answers, see What is this animal? Is it a possum?”
That’s necessary for newbies who don’t know how quora works, go to the question source and then don’t know where to go next for the answers.
It’s a specially good very simple example of a situation where the question is a natural one that someone will want to ask: “What is this” with some photographs they took of it. All such questions will make no sense without the details. Well this is a way to fix past questions like that and to ask new ones.
Sadly it doesn’t embed the photographs into the question itself, but it’s better than nothing.
I describe this and other solutions in more detail in my answer to Why were question details removed from Quora on August 3, 2017?
Yes of course, unless they are already liberated or Buddha. This is why it’s often not a good idea to just give everything away when you learn about Buddhism. It’s easy to give away your possession...
(more)Yes of course, unless they are already liberated or Buddha. This is why it’s often not a good idea to just give everything away when you learn about Buddhism. It’s easy to give away your possessions but not so easy to give away your attachment which probably pops up as regret at what you did.
Meanwhile if you can give up your attachment, there’s no need to give away the possessions or the things you are attached to :).
Losing your attachment in this sense actually means greater love and compassion and more happiness and pleasure and enjoyment too. It’s not at all a Vulcan like repression of emotions and feelings. That again is something one might well do when one learns about Buddhism - try to push feelings and thoughts and emotions away thinking you mustn’t be attached to those. So then you get very attached to the idea of being free of emotions and being calm and peaceful - and that then means you are in a worse state than if you didn’t do that, because it is really hard to spot that kind of an attachment.
It’s not really what we in the West think of as attachment, but it’s a hard word to translate. When we laugh a bit at ourselves and all the antics our minds get up to to try to prove that it is making progress in understanding what it is, and doing something about it, then there might be a chance for some chink of understanding to come in :).
Meanwhile there are many other things one can do along the path :). Generosity is good. But if you think you can get rid of attachment by giving everything away - that doesn’t work.
It can help you to find a simpler way of life with fewer complications which is why Buddhist monks and nuns renounce possessions when they take their vows. But there are many other Buddhist paths and that’s just one of them, and if you think that by giving away everything and becoming a monk or a nun you will instantly be rid of all attachment you are in for a big disappointment. It’s not as easy as that.
Just to add, after posting your image in a comment, you can put a link to the comment in the “Question source” field.
Yes. I can understand their reasons, that it permits lots of slightly different questions with inessential differences in the details, that are hard to merge. But people sometimes do have questions...
(more)Yes. I can understand their reasons, that it permits lots of slightly different questions with inessential differences in the details, that are hard to merge. But people sometimes do have questions that have to be spelt out in detail and can only be summarized in the title, for instance in science and maths areas, or if it is something to do with their own personal situation and experiences. Or it might involve images or links, not just one but several.
There may be no single link that summarizes it. They may have to resort to writing out the details on another social platform, say, as a post on their personal blog, and then referring to it here which is clumsy.
Sometimes the answer you give, if they leave out the details, just won’t answer their original question.
Here is a mathematical example, the author drew a diagram and uploaded it to show what it was they were confused about in a simple question about quadratic equations. It's now a comment of course. Unless you look at the drawing in the comment, you can’t really understand fully what they were confused about.
SUGGESTED SOLUTION
Why not just move the question details into the comment section, as they are doing already. But do it as a special new type of comment actually labeled as “question details”.
So you can add the details but they are done in the comment section so hidden away. Make them communally editable also, as before. And the questioner can still say “(see details)” if they are essential to the question.
That would discourage use of details for unnecessary trivial distinctions, which would help with their stated aims - but without getting rid of them altogether for those who do need them?
(I put this idea forward before in Robert Walker's answer to Do you think Quora removing the question details feature was a good idea? )
It’s going to be a bit clumsy for maths and science questions - which sometimes require you to set out the problem in some detail, and can't just present the problem in its entirety in the title. I...
(more)It’s going to be a bit clumsy for maths and science questions - which sometimes require you to set out the problem in some detail, and can't just present the problem in its entirety in the title. It doesn’t make them impossible. But they will have to say "(see comment)" I suppose instead of "(see details)".
Here is a mathematical example, the author drew a diagram and uploaded it to show what it was they were confused about in a simple question about quadratic equations. It's now a comment of course.
The main problem there would be that sometimes the question gets many comments so how will you know which of the comments the question refers to?
Also it’s going to be an issue for all those questions where the author wants help with some particular detailed scenario they are in. E.g. in my case, scared of fake doomsday news which they want debunked. They may put valuable details into the question. What exactly is it that scares them about the story? Though sometimes it’s obvious ,sometimes it isn’t so much.
SUGGESTED SOLUTION
Why not just move the question details into the comment section, as they are doing already. But do it as a special new type of comment actually labeled as “question details”.
So you can add the details but they are done in the comment section so hidden away. Make them communally editable also, as before. And the questioner can still say “(see details)” if they are essential to the question.
That would discourage use of details for unnecessary trivial distinctions, which would help with their stated aims - but without getting rid of them altogether for those who do need them?
Interesting suggestion by Joachim Pense - in a comment - you could add a comment and then just link to the comment as your source for the question. So that would be a way to add details just as before :).
I describe this and other solutions in more detail in my answer to Why were question details removed from Quora on August 3, 2017?
The main risk is from ash. The further you are from the center, the less ash you get. This map from a computer simulation gives an idea of one possible outcome:
You’d get 1–3 millimeters thickness o...
(more)The main risk is from ash. The further you are from the center, the less ash you get. This map from a computer simulation gives an idea of one possible outcome:
You’d get 1–3 millimeters thickness of ash right out to New York, which is enough to “reduce traction on roads and runways, short out electrical transformers and cause respiratory problems”. There would be centimeters of thickness over much of the mid west, enough to disrupt crops and livestock, especially if it happened at critical time in the growing season. and a meter of thickness out to quite a distance. The worst affected in their list of cites is Billings, population 109,000, which their model predicted would get an estimated 1.03 to 1.8 meters thickness of ash.
So, you want to avoid the dust. After that, the main risk is from crop damage then - and longer term it can cause a reduction in global temperatures by up to 10 C for a decade, which is a lot. Also jets would be grounded, for some time, until the dust settles.
But it’s far more likely to be an ordinary eruption. There have been 80 non explosive eruptions in the 640,000 years since the last supervolcano eruption. So that’s the most likely eruption by far. The last 20 of those were mainly lava flows. An eruption like that would disrupt activities in the Yellowstone national park itself, but it’s likely to lead to few deaths and would not be catastrophic.
It’s also possible that it’s ended its supervolcano phase. It has three known supervolcano eruptions, 2.1 million years ago, 1.2 million years ago and 640,000 years ago. It’s possible that the last one was its last one ever.
Also if it does go supervolcano they expect to have from weeks to months of warning of it. It must be one of the most closely monitored volcanic sites in the world. In the weeks leading up to the eruption I’m sure there would be lots of advice about what to do and probably they would clear the national park too.
See also my What really happens if Yellowstone erupts as a supervolcano, or if some other supervolcano erupts?
It’s just fake news. People click on these stories and share them and chatter about them and so you get talk about them. But unlike the 2012 fake news stories, there isn’t that much talk about this...
(more)It’s just fake news. People click on these stories and share them and chatter about them and so you get talk about them. But unlike the 2012 fake news stories, there isn’t that much talk about this. You must have clicked on many such links, or avidly follow fake news sites like “Before It’s News” or the conspiracy reddits etc to see it at all. Or perhaps you read the sensationalist UK red top tabloids or watch US tv programs that favour such stories like “Coast to Coast FM”
People are just gullible and can easily be lead to believe fake news, especially if they don’t know much about the subject. It seems absurd to us now, but back in 1957 there was no internet, much less travel than today, and many people were convinced, on April fools day, that spaghetti grows on trees as a result of watching this video.
For more on this with modern examples, see my Debunked: How can the videos and photos be hoaxes when so many people believe them?
Also, I think I should debunk your two points and explain why they are neither of them anything to be scared about.
First on the eclipse. We get an eclipse of the sun every year or two. Many of them are total. It is very common for the eclipse to span midday at some point along its track too. ~An eclipse of the sun is just the small shadow of our Moon moving over the surface of Earth. Sometimes the shadow cone doesn’t quite touch Earth and we get an annular eclipse. And sometimes it does touch it and we get a total eclipse. But it will only go dark for at most a minute or two, and you have to be inside the shadow when it passes by to see the total eclipse. It is just a shadow and can’t harm you, but is a spectacular natural event. “Eclipse chasers” will travel hundreds of miles to see one.
If you watch the eclipse - be sure to get eclipse glasses. Only cost of the order of dollars. You may also be able to get them on the cover of astronomy magazines. You don’t sense any pain even when the back of your eye is burning - or more likely - getting bleached by UV light. You can lose your eyesight in the center of your vision temporarily, and in rare cases, permanently, by staring at the sun without protection.
The only time it’s safe to stare at the sun without eye protection is when the sun is completely blocked by the Moon and you see the corona (see below).
Though they are common, because the shadow is small, then it’s rare to see an eclipse anywhere particularly. You have to be standing within the blue eclipse track shown on the map here: this shows the eclipses from 2001 to 2020 including the US one.
The last total eclipses in the US were back in the 1960s and 1970s so young people will not have seen one. Even older people won’t have seen it unless you traveled to the eclipse track. Here is the map for those US eclipses. All the blue lines here are total eclipses. The red ones are annular, meaning that the sun is not totally blocked out.
This is NASA’s eclipse page, with lots of maps like that in the map section. Solar Eclipse Page
Because they always happen at new moon, you won’t see the moon until it starts to take a bite out of the sun. It’s lit up from behind. In the same way if you stand in the shadow of anything, you will see the darker side of it, not the sunlit side. There’s no scattered light in space, apart from a bit of light from the Earth, so the shaded side of the Moon is pitch black. It is, quite literally, behind the blue sky, so you don’t see anything of it until it passes between you and the sun.
Some people worry because there will be a total eclipse around midday - because of some Bible passage about darkness at noon. Well eclipses that span midday are very common.
Solar eclipse of August 11, 1999
This eclipse was maximum at 11 am in Romania but was still total over India around midday. This was the last total eclipse in the UK
That photograph shows the corona - white rays radiating out from the Sun which you only see at times of total eclipse. If you are lucky enough to have a clear sky, you may see this awesome sight. The sky goes dark and you will even see the brightest stars in good viewing conditions.
It's rather spectacular if you get to see a total eclipse - "eclipse chasers" travel around the world to see eclipses. There are several stages to it, first partial eclipse. Then as the moon covers the sun, you get "Bailey's beads" when light shines between gaps in the mountains around the Moon often ending with a single "diamond ring" when just a tiny patch of sun is left. Then it goes dark and the sun's corona shows and you may see the brightest stars. And yes it turns dark in the middle of the day but only for a minute or so and you have to be exactly on the eclipse track to see this.
Solar eclipse of June 21, 2001
This one had greatest eclipse at 12:04:46 so as close to noon as makes no difference - that’s when the eclipse lasted the longest for this one.
Wikipedia has lists of eclipses, so you can follow through to find any other eclipses that you are interested in: Lists of solar eclipses
This is what an eclipse looks like from space - the dark patch here includes some of the area of partial eclipse - it’s only seen as total from the very center and darkest part of the shadow.
You have to be on the narrow path of the Moon's shadow - the Moon is small and the Sun is huge, and the Moon's shadow is shaped like a cone and only just touches the Earth which is why it is so tiny. You have to be positioned within that tiny shadow to see an eclipse.
You have to travel to the eclipse track to see a total eclipse (unless you are already on it). Most people in the US will only see the sun partly covered - a partial eclipse. But if you are on the eclipse track, you will see a total eclipse.
It's well worth going to see if it is reasonably close to you, many people say it is a sight of a lifetime. Unless it is clouded over. In that case it just gets dark for a minute or two and you don't see anything much else.
If you do see it, then the sun gets blocked out by the moon and then you see white rays emanating from the shadow. That's the solar corona. So not totally black, you see the corona and you may see the brightest stars. If you are lucky enough to have a clear sky that is.
This can help you find the best place to see it. You need to be inside the shadow. You also need to have clear skies. So best if you can go to a place that has clear skies more often.
As for David Meade, his book is just complete BS, he believes every conspiracy theory that is going around, and presents it without any fact checking at all. E.g. he trots out the conspiracy theory that the catholic church built a gigantic telescope to watch Nibiru. Actually it is a small telescope that happens to be on the same mountain as one of the very largest telescopes in our world, and the Catholic church has a long term interest in astronomy, has been running small observatories for centuries, so there is no surprise there at all.
Modern telescopes tend to be built, if you have the choice, in a few favoured sites that have exceptionally good seeing so it’s also not much of a coincidence that they built their telescope on the same mountain as a much larger one. The big telescope has no connection at all with the Catholic church and is run by an international consortium of astronomers.
For more on this, as it would make this answer very long to go into it all here:
This answer uses my article: Why the eclipse this August is a wonder of nature and not something to be scared of
See also List of the articles in my Debunking Doomsday blog to date
Note, original question details are here:
Oh, for sure, it can have real roots. You can express it as
So, you are looking for an intersection of a quadratic with a straight line. It’s often going to have solutions.
By the Quadratic formula, the requirement for it to have real roots is
The solution for
Notice that the graphs meet at x = -1.
And here it is for the equation
I can’t find a genuine news story of this nature. There’s a lot of fake news out there about Nibiru. They are just totally made up stories and sometimes they can look convincingly like a real news website.
...
(more)I can’t find a genuine news story of this nature. There’s a lot of fake news out there about Nibiru. They are just totally made up stories and sometimes they can look convincingly like a real news website.
The whole thing is just BS and the only “news” about Nibiru is in fake news websites, the “red top tabloids”, sites like “Before It’s News”, Coast to Coast FM and similar dubious news sources. Another source is from youtube videos by uploaders who some of them earn thousands of dollars a month from the ad revenue. Others know nothing of astronomy but have told that any unexplained bright light in the sky is “Nibiru”.
Of course, if you have never paid much attention to the sky and then start to look at it you will see many things that surprise you. I even get contacted by people who get scared because they see the Moon in daytime (it’s been in the daytime sky for most of their entire life, except at times close to new moon and full moon, and they never noticed). Similarly if you have never tried to photograph the sun before you will spot lens flares and offset lens reflections for the first time. If you have been primed by these hoaxers to assume that everything you see that’s bright and unexplained is “Nibiru” then you end up getting more and more scared, maybe eventually scared even to leave your house, or you may end up holed up in some kind of bunker in the countryside. You may also notice that the sun rises at a slightly different position each day and get convinced that the Earth’s poles are shifting. Again this is perfectly normal and part of how the seasons work, why we have summer and winter. It’s been doing this for their entire life and they never noticed before. It’s so sad that anyone gets scared by this utter codswallop.
No astronomer gives this the time of day. It’s total nonsense and BS. See for instance my
It’s the nearest small number rational approximation. You can use the method of continued fractions to get a series of best approximations
3/1, 22/7, 333/106, 355/113, 103993/33102, 104348/33215 etc.
...
(more)It’s the nearest small number rational approximation. You can use the method of continued fractions to get a series of best approximations
3/1, 22/7, 333/106, 355/113, 103993/33102, 104348/33215 etc.
These are the best approximations in the sense that for instance 355/113 is closer to PI than any fraction with a lower denominator than 113.
If you want to memorize a reasonably exact value of PI then it’s easier to memorize its expansion as 3.14159
That’s more accurate than 22/7 = 3.1428 and 333/106 = 3.141509.
What is easier to remember, 22/7 or 3.14? Admittedly, 22/7 is a smidgen closer to PI than 3.14 (difference of 0.00126 for 22/7 and 0.00159 for 3.14)
The approximation 355/113 = 3.14159292035 gives you one extra decimal place
compare PI = 3.14159265358979
You could say that 355/113 has a slight advantage over 3.141592 as it has one less character (including the division sign), and it’s a lot closer to PI than 3.14159. On the other hand, PI to six decimal places is actually 3.141593 (rounding up).
Anyway - I think it is more practical to remember PI as 3.14159265 than as 355/113. It’s shorter than a typical telephone number, and is as many places as you need except in very specialist calculations. But the ratios are fun :).
That the historical Buddha was born perhaps as early as Thales of Miletus, at the time of the birth of Greek philosophy, and at any rate, before Plato. His traditional Therevadan birth date is 624 ...
(more)That the historical Buddha was born perhaps as early as Thales of Miletus, at the time of the birth of Greek philosophy, and at any rate, before Plato. His traditional Therevadan birth date is 624 BC, though he may have been born as late as 500 BC or even later. The birth date for Thales is the same year, 624 BC. Plato was born 428 BC or a few years later. For discussion of the different attempts at a chronology to work out when he was born, see Notes on the Dates of the Buddha Shåkyamuni
Lumbini, birthplace of Buddha Shakyamuni - rediscovered by Nepali archaeologists at the end of the nineteenth century when they unearthed a pillar that King Ashoka placed here.
The earliest date matches the birth of Thales of Miletus 624BC - this is the birth of Greek philosophy - before Pythagoras, never mind Plato and Aristotle. The range of dates spans pretty much the entire range of early Greek philosophy. At any date Buddha’s birth, and quite probably his paranirvana or death, predates Plato who was born in the late fifth century BC, 428 BC or maybe a year or two later, up to 423 BC.
I find that rather striking, and surprising.
Interestingly we know far more about Buddha Shakyamuni’s teachings than we do about Thales, although Northern India didn’t have writing at the time of Buddha, while Greece did have writing of course. India has a long tradition of memorizing texts accurately, from before it had writing. Writing was introduced to Northern India a century or two after Buddha, as it had it by the time of King Ashoka, a couple of centuries or so BC.
Note, later Buddhists sutras do mention writing. But the earliest ones, the ones that may have been memorized since the time of the Buddha himself, they don’t according to the Pali scholars who have studied this (the Pali canon is vast like an encyclopedia, it also includes some texts that all scholars recognize as later but most of the texts are very early). For more detail, see Robert Walker's answer to Was Buddha literate?
Anyway let’s have a look at a few of the things we know about Thales, who just possibly might have been a contemporary of Shakyamuni Buddha in Greece..
Thales was a geometer as well as a philosopher, and Thales' theorem is attributed to him - that the angle at B in this diagram is always a right angle where AC is a diameter.
He may also be responsible for the Intercept theorem.
He is reported as having measured the height of the pyramids by measuring their shadows (somehow, there are various ways he could have done it). He might have done it empirically or semi empirically by noticing that at certain times of day the length of an object’s shadow is equal to its height, or he may have used more elaborate reasoning based on similar triangles.
He was also keen on astronomy. If Herodotus’ account is valid, he is also the first person in recorded history to successfully predict a solar eclipse. Eclipse of Thales - Wikipedia on May 28, 585 BC (probably it involved a measure of luck if the story is true).
Not much is known about his philosophy, because his work hasn’t survived, so what we know is based on what other philosophers like Aristotle wrote about him. But he probably thought that everything is made up of water as a fundamental substance and that our Earth is flat.
That may have been revolutionary at his time. Sambursky wrote.
“It was Thales who first conceived the principle of explaining the multitude of phenomena by a small number of hypotheses for all the various manifestations of matter.”
Later Greek philosophers were to run with this idea, which went through many stages eventually leading to early ideas of the atomic nature of matater. Plato recorded as an anecdote about him, that he fell into a well while gazing at the stars, see The Astrologer who Fell into a Well
For more about him:
If this is on Earth: water but frothed up with air, or perhaps - carbon dioxide?
If I can somehow arrange to have lots of air mixed in the top layers, and then less and less the further down I go, i...
(more)If this is on Earth: water but frothed up with air, or perhaps - carbon dioxide?
If I can somehow arrange to have lots of air mixed in the top layers, and then less and less the further down I go, it should decelerate me slowly and break some of the impact. I don’t know if it could be made enough to survive a fall from height. Then you want the frothing localized or somehow to stop as soon as you fall in, or you’ll sink to the bottom of the frothy water and getting water in your lungs is dangerous so it would be hard to breathe -or better - you are equipped with a robust aqualung or similar with plenty of air to breathe when you jump, to get you to safety afterwards.
You could also have fluids of decreasing density one above the other. But you don’t get liquids that much lower density than water, not enough to make a difference. Apart from liquid helium, density about an eighth of that of water. That’s in another answer already, and is very sci. fi. Also, that would freeze the water, you could have ethane then methane, gases / liquids of decreasing density and freezing point poured at the last minute - and how do you then survive when you return to the surface of the water after your dive, now floating beneath layers of ethane, methane and liquid helium? So I can’t really see where to go with that except by frothing up the liquids again. But you want water you can float on ideally so that takes us back to water. If you are permitted to modify the atmosphere as well, you could arrange to have denser gases to fall through with lower terminal velocity which might help (and again closed system breathing)..
However, if you allow me to pick a location, as you didn’t say where this is, and I can choose anywhere in our solar system, well it’s easy. There’s one obvious place.
Let me pick Titan with an insulated suit (because it is incredibly cold there), and air to breathe (there’s no oxygen in its atmosphere) - but you don’t need a pressure suit because the pressure is the same inside and out. Just heat insulation and air to breathe.
In that case the gravity is only 1.352 m/s² and the atmosphere is higher pressure than Earth’s, 45% higher
It’s oceans are somewhat lower density than water, with a mix of methane and ethane. But you’d survive anyway. Terminal velocity would be very low. A tenth of your terminal velocity on Earth. Calculated here as 6.9 meters per second (about 15 miles per hour): At what g is terminal velocity not terminal? (see answer by Mark Beadles). That’s the same speed you are traveling on Earth if you jump down to the ground from a height of 70 centimeters.
So, I’d choose to fall 2,000 feet into its ethane / methane seas. They would provide a bit more cushioning for the impact. But you don’t really need it and it might be inconvenient to end up under the surface in your spacesuit (you would surely sink). So maybe just try to target a puddle instead, for the purposes of fulfilling the conditions of the question of landing in a liquid :).
See also
Interesting question. The sun never goes dark, not for trillions of years. But it does have an interesting future
Interesting question. The sun never goes dark, not for trillions of years. But it does have an interesting future
There I’m summarizing the Wikipedia on this in the Sun life phases - but in my experience it is very accurate on things like this as a result of checking many of their articles - astronomers seem to be very active in keeping it accurate - so though I haven’t checked those figures, for something that has had as many astronomers eyeballing it as this, I’d have thought it would be correct. (There are other topics where in my experience wikipedia is very unreliable).
This diagram summarizes the future evolution of our Sun based on the Hertzsprung–Russell diagram - a rather simple idea - you chart stars according to their luminosity, and their temperature. You can read the temperature easily from their colour spectrum. So those are things you can measure very easily with simple measurements, for any star, so you can just observe a star and pop it on the HR diagram. It turns out that all stars start off on the “Main sequence at the bottom of this diagram and stay close to it for billions of years, so typical diagrams like this, say for a galaxy, or a star cluster, have lots of stars near the main sequence line, and this is how astronomers began to figure out the basics of stellar evolution.
File:Evolution of a Sun-like star.svg - Wikipedia
This shows the position of many well known stars on the HR diagram.
File:Hertzsprung-Russel StarData.png
So - it’s very unlikely that anything could remain habitable all the way through to the white dwarf phase especially during those thermal pulses and the end when it throws off half its mass in a planetary nebula. But life could survive maybe by jumping from one place to another - and if there are technological beings here by then, who knows what they could do with billions of years old megatechnology.
But - surprisingly, there are planets sometimes found orbiting white dwarf stars. This is the first to be discovered. Astronomers find the first planet known to orbit a white dwarf
The big question is whether they were there all along and somehow got brought inwards at some point or they formed from scratch.
Either way - might they have life? Well - they seem unlikely candidates, but they are worth searching because - they would be amongst the easiest for us to observe. It’s like that story of looking for your keys beneath a street light if you lost them in the street. We can look there more easily than many other places, and just possibly might find life, or conditions where life could evolve again from scratch. See Does Life Exist on Planets Orbiting White Dwarfs?
So anyway back to Europa. I don’t think there’s any chance of life surviving there right the way through. It’s mainly ice and - it turns out that after the Helium flash - Europa is too close to the Sun to be in its habitable zone. But it would be possible for life to flourish there right through to the sub giant and red giant phase when the habitable zone ranges from 2-9 AU. Jupiter is 5.2 au from the sun. At that point it would no longer need tidal heating, and the surface ice would melt. Figure for habitable zone here See Can Life develop in the expanded habitable zones around Red Giant Stars?
Now - could it retain its water at that point? Well if exposed to a vacuum it would lose it quickly. I did a calculation here for Ganymede, which is a bit larger than Europa. Robert Walker's answer to Do water planets exist? - I worked out that it would vanish completely in only 67 years if directly exposed to vacuum without any atmosphere.
However it would quickly form a water vapour atmosphere. I figured out that it could last for several million years in that case. All that assumed fresh water, would be slightly different for salty water but I didn’t try to estimate that. Then finally it could develop a layer of scum on the top, especially if it had photosynthetic life. If so that could reduce the rate of water loss, depending on the nature of the scum. But if it stops the water evaporating (rather than encouraging it) then maybe it could survive for tens of millions of years or more.
So - maybe in natural course of events Ganymede becomes habitable. Europa being smaller and warmer loses its water a bit more quickly but some gets to Ganymede. Maybe if somehow it develops a surface layer of scummy organics that’s very good at retaining the water it can last all the way through the billion years of the red giant phase. For instance, suppose it has photosynthetic life - but there’s not much protection from UV, so the life is killed on the surface but survives just below the surface - the dead life maybe is very good at protecting the water from evaporation.
Once it goes through the helium flash though, Europa is toast, it would just boil away as it would be inside of the habitable zone, and same also for all of Jupiter’s icy moons. The habitable zone now extends from 7 to 22 au. So now it’s the turn of Saturn (9.6 au) and Uranus (19.2 au), from Can Life develop in the expanded habitable zones around Red Giant Stars?,
Saturn has Enceladus which may well have life. It also has Titan which has methane and ethane oceans which may have exotic forms of life, but they won’t be able to survive once it gets that warm, they depend on very cold conditions. If they can migrate (if they exist) they would now be looking for niches in the very distant parts of the outer solar system way beyond Neptune and Pluto to survive). However it probably also has a subsurface ocean may have life there too.
I can’t imagine Enceladus lasting long as it is so small unless it has very evaporation preventing scum. But Titan could last a long time as an ocean world with scum + water vapour atmosphere.
Then we have the thermal pulses and the planetary nebulae. That’s only 500,000 years. Short enough so that even if the life survives in dormant form it could revive after that time. So - need some way for the life from Saturn and Uranus to find its way into the newly forming planets around the white dwarf - or else those are planets that migrate inwards in which case - maybe there’s lots of inward motion of matter to bombard them with life giving asteroids or comets from impacts into Titan?
So you could imagine life managing all the way through to the white dwarf phase I think. But in a series of stepping stones. Not in one location all the way through.
BTW in the near future starting perhaps half a billion years into the future (may seem close but that’s long enough for humans to evolve all the way from the smallest microscopic creatures a second time) - as the sun warms up, Mars, and then maybe Ceres and Vesta and perhaps other large asteroids also could be useful oases for life when Earth is no longer habitable, and before Europa, Ganymede and Callisto get their turn.
All of this is not taking account at all of technological intelligent creatures which could do many things to ensure habitability. E.g. if they can move Europa - well within the capability of megatechnology - and cover its surface with ionic fluids, or even, give it an artificial atmosphere and put an artificial covering over that atmosphere to hold it in - or whatever - they could keep it habitable all the way through perhaps. Or do many things. Perhaps by then they live in the Oort cloud using fusion reactions for mini suns and are so far from our Sun that what it does hardly bothers them and they just enjoy watching the planetary nebula from a safe distance. There’s no way to predict once you have megatechnology + intelligence, just depends what they decide to do in that distance future, which would depend on their motivations which we can’t hope to predict really.
If you spot any mistakes in this, however small or major, please don’t hesitate to say, for instance in the comments below.
Oh, I think it’s almost the opposite. If there is life already there, we probably can’t live there. First a bit of context about what exactly they hope to find.
WHAT TO ASTRONOMERS HOPE TO FIND IN T...
(more)Oh, I think it’s almost the opposite. If there is life already there, we probably can’t live there. First a bit of context about what exactly they hope to find.
WHAT TO ASTRONOMERS HOPE TO FIND IN THE NEAR FUTURE E.G. WITH THE JAMES WEBB TELESCOPE
Astronomers when they are looking for habitable planets mean any kind of life including microbes. Our Earth only had microbes for much of its history - so maybe nearly all planets have microbial life. Hard to say with only one example, but it’s our only starting point for now.
But would we detect a planet with only microbial life, even if it is a very habitable ocean world like ours? There’s doubt about that, because, life on Earth was probably undetectable from a distance with the tools we have available until terrestrial life evolved - because everything happened in the sea and the atmosphere was more or less in equilibrium. Sometimes oxygen excess, earlier on perhaps methane excess, but never both together in any quantities until recently. The problem there is that you can get either an oxygen or a methane excess easily by natural processes. What is hard to get without life is both of those together (or two other gases that react with each other quickly) though even that is also possible to some extent without life.
The main ways we have for detecting life at a distance is through changes in the atmosphere - or - unusual colours and spectra from the land. Not much we can do about detecting life that’s in an ocean directly (apart from really huge planet scale algae blooms or some such). And not much we can do to detect it indirectly either - changes in the ocean chemistry won’t be anything like as easy to detect from a distance as changes in atmosphere chemistry. Life in the oceans does affect the atmosphere, but in our Earth’s history anyway - it did it in a way that could be mimicked by natural processes.
So if we detect life unambiguously around a distant Earth like planet, it’s probably going to have spread to the land anyway and quite probably multicellular - just to go by what happened on Earth at the stage when life here got (fairly) easy to detect from afar. They would also try other things to search for including the “red edge” of chlorophyll vegetation - or the unusual colours of vegetation of all sorts, or fluorescence etc. All that again likely to work best if it has spread to land. Another possibility is to detect industrial pollutants in the atmosphere, or of course a signal from ET or megarchitecture, in which case it’s got intelligent life like ourselves.
Apart from that it’s a rather strange situation - where they would search maybe a thousand planets, but can’t say of any particular one that it has life. But statistically some of them probably do because of excesses of oxygen or methane that just seem on average to be more than you’d expect from natural processes, to have so many with such large excesses.
So, maybe they detect terrestrial life at a similar stage to Earth or later. Or else if that’s very rare, maybe they find lots of planets with microbial life but they’d need a large sample of those to have a decent chance of concluding that some of them are inhabited (without knowing which). But they could find anything of course, Earth might or might not be a good example of what to expect. Or they may even find intelligent life like ourselves that’s also got technology (intelligent life without technology wouldn’t be detectable, and you could have intelligent sea creatures just as hard to detect as the almost undetectable microbes in the sea).
More on this at the end, anyway back to the question.
IF THERE IS ADVANCED MULTICELLULAR LIFE THERE
First, if there is advanced life there, plants, animals etc, probably we can’t eat much except for sugar and alcohol.
Unless, that is, we are both results of seeding by the extraordinarily advanced Star Trek Ancient humanoids :).
Some of this food could easily be toxic to humans, or vice versa, even if we are all biologically closely related. In the Star Trek universe then they have an underlying hypothesis that all the planets with the various humanoids on them were seeded by the Ancient humanoids, so it's reasonable that they all use the same amino acids as Earth life. That could also be the situation if the ETs and us have a common shared microbial ancestor, e.g. all our planets seeded by life around earlier stars that pass through the forming nebulae.
In Star Trek they go one step further (rather improbably) that the humanoids are so closely related they can actually interbreed (again a result of the amazing mastery of the processes of evolution of the ancient hominids, able to seed the worlds with just the right organisms to ensure that hominids would co-evolve on all these worlds pretty much simultaneously several billion years later), which would suggest that they can eat just about anything we can. Still, even then, they need to take some care.
Humans vary a fair bit in their tolerance to foods and in allergic reactions that can be deadly. A Thanksgiving Look At Great Meals In Star Trek History
IF THEY ARE INDEPENDENTLY EVOLVED - WHY THEIR PROTEINS MAY NOT BE NUTIRITOUS FOR HUMANS
Humans need amino acids to stay healthy. When we digest food, any proteins are broken down first into polypeptides, then peptides, then into their component amino acids. Protein Digestion and Absorption Process - Video&Lesson Transcript | Study.com
So, it seems that what matters are what the amino acids are in the food. There are nine essential amino acids that humans need in their food. Essential amino acid
There are an estimated around 4,000 possible biologically reasonable amino acids in one computer search. Alien Life Could Use Endless Array of Building Blocks. And many of them occur in nature. Out of those, life uses 20 (or 21 or 23 depending how you count them) (Amino acid). Of course many of those won't occur in nature - but Earth life also uses some amino acids that don't occur naturally either. Also other searches might change or refine those numbers.
It's clear that there are many more amino acids than those used by life. For instance, 52 amino acids have been identified in the Murchison meteorite. Amino acids in meteorites.
So, the food is likely to be missing essential amino acids. It's also likely to include extra amino acids that our body is not used to.
And then, the amino acids are asymmetrical, and any of those amino acids can be in either its left or right form to build the proteins. We can only use it in its "left hand" form.
OTHER ESSENTIAL NUTRIENTS
Humans also have many other essential nutrients e.g. vitamins, that have to be in our food or eventually we'll die. Essential nutrient
Their equivalent of our vitamins, for instance, instead of being health giving, may be Antimetabolites for us - drugs that interfere with the normal functioning of the cell.
And vice versa, our vitamins might interfere with their metabolism equally.
And the trace elements we need might some of them be deadly to them and vice versa.
IF IT IS NOT RELATED TO EARTH LIFE
So, unless related to us, it's not going to be able to give us all the amino acids and vitamins and other essential nutrients we need to survive, bar an extraordinary coincidence.
Barring an extraordinary coincidence, it wouldn't have toxins that are targeted at humans or animals specifically. But there are many things that are poisonous for us, so it doesn't need to specifically target vulnerabilities in humans to do that.
For instance, maybe your ET just loves to eat hydrogen cyanide, or arsenic, or perchlorates. These are delicacies for them, but deadly to us.
COULD BE TASTY HOWEVER
Apart from that - well it could be tasty even if not actually nutritious. And it could have carbohydrates to give you energy.
SWEETENERS
Sugars seem quite possible.
Glucose, the form of sugar you have in fruit juice,
Seems reasonably possible they'd have something like that, simple carbohydrates that we may be able to eat. So you'd be able to use ET food as a source of energy at least.
At least you could hope to eat the icing of their cakes.
As other possibilities, maybe it naturally produces an artificial sweetener, e.g. Aspartame which is a combination of two amino acids.
Or Saccharin
Or lead acetate, which of course would give you lead poisoning if you used it a lot.
See Sugar substitute
ALCOHOL
Ethanol is simple enough, so good chance you can at least share a drink with ETs. That is, if they happen to also like alcohol, which of course depends on their metabolism.
Romulan Ale
TASTY POISONS
But tasting nice is no guarantee that it is good for you, or indeed not poisonous. E.g. antifreeze, as simple as ethanol chemically, just ethanol with an extra hydroxyl grouping, Ethylene glycol, tastes sweet.
And is so simple you can easily imagine an ET food including it.
But it is moderately toxic, and because it is sweet, sometimes children for instance drink it in large quantities, which can lead to Ethylene glycol poisoning and death.
OTHER CONDIMENTS
Of course also salt is tasty - sprinkling ET originated salt (maybe with trace elements) on your food might well be fine unless it contains mercury, arsenic or some such.
So there might well also be tasty condiments from ET planets.
Salt on Mars. But this isn't table salt, these are sulfates. Salts on Mars are always highly oxidized, so not much chlorides. Sulfates, chlorates, or perchlorates dominate them.
But you'd need to be careful, for instance, salt deposits on Mars consist of sulfates, chlorates and perchlorates with almost no chlorides. The perchlorates, particularly, are poisonous to humans.
So, if an ET host offers you salt, you need to ask "what kind of salt?". In case they have a taste for perchlorates, for instance, as a condiment.
COULD CAUSE ALZHEIMERS OR OTHER TANGLE DISEASES
It could also contain chemicals that are similar enough to ones our body uses that it takes it up as food - but they are not quite identical.
Example:
L-serine, resembles
BMAA which is created by green algae.
It’s been suggested that BMAA can be misincorporated to cause tangle diseases like Alzheimers.
So - if it is similar enough so that you find it tasty - might be that your predilection for ET food gives you Alzheimers in your later life.
BE SURE TO STERILIZE YOUR FOOD AND NOT SIT IN THE SAME ROOM AS YOUR ET HOST - BEST - USE TELEROBITIC AVATARS
As well as that, you'd need to be sure to sterilize the food because the biggest danger I think would be from ET microbes. Which you might also get from the ETs themselves.
You might think that ET microbes would have no effect on a human, but the thing is - that though they wouldn't be adapted to us, our immune system also wouldn't be adapted to them. Just as you can have e.g. artificial implants that your body doesn't reject because it doesn't trigger your immune system, so also ET life could quite possibly invade your body and your immune system doesn't even notice it because it doesn't produce the chemicals characteristic of life. This has been suggested as a motivation for developing synthetic life in the laboratory - that you could create implants that the body wouldn't recognize as life and so wouldn't reject. See Xenobiology: A new form of life as the ultimate biosafety tool
Joshua Lederberg who took a special interest in this said about Mars life, which might not produce the same peptides and carbohydrates as Earth life:
"On the one hand, how could microbes from Mars be pathogenic for hosts on Earth when so many subtle adaptations are needed for any new organisms to come into a host and cause disease? On the other hand, microorganisms make little besides proteins and carbohydrates, and the human or other mammalian immune systems typically respond to peptides or carbohydrates produced by invading pathogens. Thus, although the hypothetical parasite from Mars is not adapted to live in a host from Earth, our immune systems are not equipped to cope with totally alien parasites: a conceptual impasse"
Then these microbes themselves, once they are able to make a home on and in your body, may make various chemicals that are toxic to you. Or interfere with your body functions. And the other way around, your microbes may make chemicals toxic to them.
Or another thought - just to think about - might they even just slowly eat you? What if you are edible to some of the microbes, general purpose feeders - and your cells don't realize what's going on? They will respond to the trauma but their reaction may have no effect on the ET microbes that just gobble up everything your cells create.
Bowl of yoghurt, photo by Schwäbin
If your host offers you live yoghurt, be sure to sterilize it first. Unless you have proved that our microbes and theirs are compatible first.
But as well as that - after visiting an ET and sharing a meal with them, your lungs, sinuses, eyes, stomach, the surface of your skin, and every accessible part of your body may be inhabited by trillions of ET microbes that your body has no idea needs to be eliminated. Microbes that are used to living on the skin and inside the stomach etc of an ET host that has a different biology from you.
And of course would be the same likewise for them, they'd surely find that at least a few of the hundred trillion microbes in ten thousand species that make human bodies their home have jumped over to them and are inhabiting their body as well.
They may be well behaved bacteria, perfect symbionts for the ET. But are they going to be as well behaved for you with the different biochemistry of your body, which may not recognize them as life?
This is from my What Food Can You Share With An ET?
IF WE CAN’T LIVE THERE RIGHT AWAY, COULD WE GROW FOOD THERE THAT WE CAN EAT?
Now, that doesn’t really address the question completely. Maybe Earth life can be compatible with other forms of life. Or maybe some biochemistries are compatible and play nicely with us and others don’t. We can’t eat their food, except things like alcohol, salt, sugar etc, but perhaps if we are lucky we can plant our own crops there and they grow fine and we eat those. And perhaps we can breathe the air and there is nothing in it that’s poisonous to us, and no microbes that eat our alien (to them) biology.
Or it might be that they are so incompatible that our crops just can’t grow there at all - the microbes in the soil just don’t play nicely with them. Or they have pests that just gobble up our crops and the crops have no defenses and maybe they gobble us up too with our bodies mounting no defenses. Any of that seems possible.
Even if there is only microbial life there - would it be compatible with Earth life to the extent we can have a mix of Earth and ET life? Or is the only way to grow food on another world to somehow sterilize their entire planet first?
Perhaps it depends on the planet. Some have compatible life that plays reasonably nicely with Earth life and some just don’t?
That might be an issue even with Mars. We don’t know enough about it yet to know if there is life there now, or was in the past. It may well have had life in the past though we don’t know, and if it did, there’s a decent chance it is still there. So would it play nicely with Earth life, or not? There’s no way to know. Can we have both forms of life on Mars at once, or must it be only the one or only the other? Again nobody knows yet. Though we’ve sent many missions to Mars we haven’t searched for life there since Viking in the 1970s. All the other ones since then have been mainly geology missions, and nothing we’ve sent since Viking would be able to detect life in, say, the driest part of the Atacama desert. Also we haven’t sent anything to the places that scientists now think are the most likely to have habitats on present day Mars (it’s difficult sterilizing our robots well enough to visit such places).
Luckily there are plenty of other places we can live even in our solar system. To start with, the Moon, ice at the poles. Also materials from the asteroid belt and later on from comets. It’s far easier to live on Earth of course, and always will be surely, as we evolved here. It’s the place we are adapted to. Anywhere else has to be forced into Earth’s mold, “terraformed” in some way. But we could live comfortably perhaps in large habitats, kilometer scale, if those can be made low maintenance, with closed system ecology inside. I’m skeptical about whether we will ever live on other planets except inside habitats like that myself. Terraforming seems easy on paper - but I think the challenges would be formidable, trying to speed up what took hundreds of millions of years on Earth, and with no guarantees that it will get to where you want, it could go in many surprising directions.
ABOUT WHY LIFE ON A PLANET LIKE EARTH WOULD PROBABLY BE HARD TO DETECT THROUGH MOST OF ITS HISTORY UNTIL IT DEVELOPED TERRESTRIAL LIFE
The problem is that for much of Earth's history, before the land was colonized, a lot of the biological activity happened in the ocean and the ocean sediments.This would have been largely decoupled from the atmosphere.
Sometimes there was an excess of oxygen in the atmosphere, but the amount of oxygen present is hard to estimate. It should have been easily detectable for the last 500 million years, and also there may have been an oxygen "overshoot" from about 2.2 billion years ago to 2 billion years ago. Apart from that, howeer, although there was oxygen in the oceans, the amounts in the atmosphere could have been too low to spot remotely.
At other times, there was an excess of methane in our atmosphere (from about 3.8 billion years go to 2.5 billion years ago). However it is difficult to have large seasonal variations in methane without a terrestrial biosphere, so it wouldn't be a clear cut case that it was the result of life, as seen from a distance.. It's also hard to have both methane and oxygen in the atmosphere together in detectable quantities, for an ocean planet without a terrestrial biosphere.. Ozone might be easier to detect.
Their general conclusion is that it's hard to detect atmospheric biosignatures in an ocean world like Earth, even though this would count as one of the most habitable types of planet. It may only become easy to detect life on a world like ours once it develops a terrestrial biosphere. Of course we only have our one example to judge this by, but our Earth only developed one at a very late date. Another civilization looking at our Sun from a distant star probably would not have managed a definite detection of any life here for most of Earth's history, at least, not using the methods we are likely to have available to us in the near future.
Quoting from a paper by Christopher Reinhard et al, published in April 2017, "False Negatives for Remote Life Detection on Ocean-Bearing Planets: Lessons from the Early Earth" (emphasis mine)
As a proof on concept, we briefly summarize the remote detectability of O2/O3, CH4, and the O2-CH4 disequilibrium throughout Earth's history. Our analysis suggests that the O2 - CH4disequilibrium approach would have failed for most of Earth's history, particularly for observations at low to moderately high spectral resolving power (R≤10,000). In addition, it is possible that O2 /O3 may only have been applicable as a potential biosignature during the last ~10% of Earth's lifetime. As a result, most of our planet's history may have been characterized by either high abundances of a single biogenic gas that can also have significant abiotic sources (e.g., CH4 ) or by a cryptic biosphere that was widespread and active at the surface but remained ultimately unrepresented in the detectable composition of Earth's atmosphere. Finally, we argue that cryptic biospheres may be a particularly acute problem on ocean-bearing planets, with the implication that many of the most favorable planetary hosts for surface biospheres will also have high potential for attenuation of atmospheric biosignatures.
and from the final Discussions and Conclusions section:
"Our analysis suggests that a planet with a biosphere largely (or entirely) confined to the marine realm will in many cases remain invisible to remote detection as a result of biosignature filtering by ocean biogeochemistry—a difficulty that may apply to both presence/absence and thermodynamic techniques. Our analysis suggests that the possible detection of oceans at a planet's surface (Robinson et al., 2010; but see Cowan et al., 2012) is a critical piece of contextual information for validating potential atmospheric biosignatures, and that planets with terrestrial biospheres (e.g., partially or entirely subaerial in scope) may be the most readily detected and characterized because of their more direct geochemical exchange with the overlying atmosphere. Ironically, in some cases planets that are very conducive to the development and maintenance of a pervasive biosphere, with large inventories of H2O and extensive oceans, may at times be the most difficult to characterize via conventional biosignature techniques."
In this earlier paper from 2014, "The future of spectroscopic life detection on exoplanets" by Sara Seager, she makes a similar point, that even with present day Earth then the methane signal is far weaker than the oxygen signal and that in the past, when one of these signals is strong, usually other is very weak. She recommends that to have a decent chance of detecting life on a planet like Earth, we need a large pool of planets to observe. She also suggests that we also search for a single active gas well out of equilibrium, by much more than you'd expect from the dissociation effects of the sunlight, and that this might give results at an earlier stage, but would lead to false positives, so the result would just be a probability that one of the planets being studied has life..
"The Lederberg–Lovelock approach could be useful at the time when hundreds or thousands of rocky exoplanets have observed atmospheres—to increase the chance that two spectroscopically active gases that are redox opposites might simultaneously exist in the lifetime evolution of a planet. In the shorter term, a different approach is needed to optimize our chances to detect biosignature gases, if they exist, around a handful of accessible potentially habitable worlds. (Note that subsurface life is problematic for astronomical techniques because remote sensing may not be able to detect weak signs of life by biosignature gases coming from the interior.)"
"An idealized atmospheric biosignature gas approach is to detect a single spectroscopically active gas completely out of chemical equilibrium with the atmosphere that is many orders of magnitude higher than expected from atmospheric photochemical equilibrium. False positives will, in many cases, be a problem, and in the end, we will have to develop a framework for assigning a probability to a given planet to have signs of life."
In her conclusion she suggests that we have a sample of at least 1,000 Sun like stars, in order to have decent statistical evidence of the presence of life on some of them, though because of the problem of false positives, one might not be able to say of any of them definitively that it has life.
This last bit is from the section
in my OK to Touch Mars? Europa? Enceladus? Or a Tale of Missteps?
No, it’s nonsense, total BS. Promulgated by youtube uploaders and bloggers who don’t have the slightest clue about the basics of astronomy.
It's like someone who claims to be an expert on sport, who...
(more)No, it’s nonsense, total BS. Promulgated by youtube uploaders and bloggers who don’t have the slightest clue about the basics of astronomy.
It's like someone who claims to be an expert on sport, who in the next sentence says that Usain Bolt is a top seeded tennis player and won Wimbledon. If you know the basics of astronomy, the things they say are as absurd as that. They give away their complete ignorance of astronomy within a couple of sentences.
"INVISIBLE" BROWN DWARFS
By way of example, they read in genuine astronomy articles that brown dwarfs can be spotted in the infrared when far from any star even in pitch darkness. They conclude from this that they are invisible in ordinary light - that's like concluding that you are invisible because you are warm. Since when did warming something up make it invisible?
CAN'T SEE ANY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A PLANET THAT NEVER COMES CLOSER THAN SIX TIMES THE DISTANCE TO NEPTUNE AND A PLANET THAT FLIES PAST EARTH
They read that astronomers think that there is a chance we may have a planet that's in an orbit that takes it at its closest to 200 au from the Sun and at its furthest, 1200 au from the sun - and if it exists, it must currently be at its furthest point or we'd have spotted it already easily. Neptune is 30 au from the Sun - so at its closest this "Planet 9" if it exists reaches more than six times the distance to Neptune - but to be not spotted yet, it has to be five or six times further away than that right now.
They conclude that this proves that they have been right all along that there is a planet in an orbit that goes from way beyond Neptune all the way to Earth's orbit and back again every 3600 years and is currently very close to us, "hiding behind the Sun" and just about to hit us or fly past us. Do you see a difference between these two scenarios? They can't seem to see any difference.
Bill Nye shows the scale of our solar system. If "Planet 9" exists then the closest it comes to Earth is six times the distance to Neptune. It must be several times further away than that at present or we'd see it already. Do you see a difference between this and the idea of a planet that comes as close to the Sun as Earth? They can't see the difference which shows the level of their understanding of astronomy.
IMPOSSIBLE PLANET
Their orbit is impossible because it would cross the orbits of all four gas giants. It can't keep missing them time after time because they have different orbital periods and it would hit one of them or be deflected out of its orbit or mess up our solar system within a million years. If our solar system ever had such a planet, it is long gone ,more than four billion years ago.
Even a 1 km comet would be easy to spot two years before it gets to Earth or Mars as we know from experience too, e.g. Siding Spring found nearly two years before its flyby of Mars and it was between 400 and 700 meters in diameter.
TWO SUNS
Then they go on to pile on the most absurd things. They say that we have two suns. I frequently get people asking me if it is true that we have a second sun and that we are in danger of it flying past Earth! Honestly. Don't they believe their own eyes? This is very easy to check. Don't stare at the Sun. Hold a finger in front of the Sun and then look to left and to right. Hold your finger at anothre angle and look above and below. Do you see a second Sun?
You have just disproved their theory that we have a second Sun.
BALDERDASH AND BULLSHIT
They say so many absurd things. They dress them up in videos with stirring sound tracks and authoritative sounding voice overs. And somehow people who know nothing about astronomy come to believe these things. Who knows if they are just unable to reason logically, or if they are hoaxing everyone else, or don't understand astronomy or what it is. Some are certainly just doing it as hoaxes for the ad revenue. And the ones who are selling Doomsday bunkers obviously have a commercial reason for running these stories. There are dozens of books on it also. It's like a minor industry, all based around balderdash and bullshit.
ASTRONOMY NIBIRU BULLSHIT TESTER - WOULD YOU READ A SPORTS COLUMN THAT STARTS "WHEN USAIN BOLT WON WIMBLEDON IN 2008..."?
I suggest you try out my Nibiru Bullshit Tester - and - well you don’t even need to do that. If a website or a news site or a TV channel or blog talks about a planet called Nibiru in all seriousness and they are not debunking it, then - just cross them off your list of people who know anything about astronomy.
To continue to read after that is like reading in all seriousness an alleged sports blog that starts "When Usain Bolt won Wimbledon in 2008 ...". It's even more absurd than that. Usain Bolt is a human being and could in principle win a tennis tournament, it is just not his sport. But their ideas don't even make logical sense in astronomy. They are bullshit through and through.
See also
More details
Here is an example video that might scare you. It’s a clip from a longer BBC documentary - not a news program.
I’ve added a comment to the youtube video clip here
Here are the most recent major extinction events
Middle Miocene disruption - 14.5 Million years ago - climate change due to change of ocean circulation patterns and perhaps related to the Milankovitch cycles?
Eocene–Oligocene extinction event - 33.9 Million years ago - Popigai impactor?
Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event - 66 million years ago, Chicxulub impactor or Deccan Traps?
The really big extinction was 66 million years ago - so you’d expect the last two to have happened 66, 39 and 12 million years ago and the next one to happen 15 million years into the future.
They have gone back 250 million years and found what seems to be a statistically significant correlation with a period of 27 million years, but obviously it’s not an exact periodicity, and obviously also very variable, sometimes big spikes in extinctions, and sometimes nothing much happens. It's always been a controversial theory.
It’s obviously very approximate with the timing varying by millions of years, and sometimes there’s almost no effect - also the one 15 million years ago doesn’t seem to be due to comets, so if the theory was true, perhaps that one was just skipped.
At present only 1 in 155 near earth objects are comets. So we are certainly not in the middle of an increase in comets coming into the inner solar system at present. If the theory is correct, we’d expect this to happen around 15 million years into the future, give or take a few million years, with the event anywhere between a complete non event and something as big as the dinosaur extinctions.
But the theory has been ruled out pretty much by the WISE infrared survey which proved that we have no companion star, and we can’t have a companion brown dwarf either unless it is unusually cold, which would be very unlikely. For more details, see Debunked: Nemesis is Nibiru - updated by Robert Walker on Debunking Doomsday
This is based on my: Is Nibiru a Hoax?
Short answer: No, not if you mean “all life”, nowhere near. There is nothing that can do that in the current solar system for millions of years into the future. It will of course kill some life. It...
(more)Short answer: No, not if you mean “all life”, nowhere near. There is nothing that can do that in the current solar system for millions of years into the future. It will of course kill some life. It would have major local effects over a region up to several hundred kilometers from the point of impact, if it landed on land. If landing in the sea, it may or may not cause a tsunami. It would have no global effects.
IN DETAIL
No. It’s too small even to cause a tsunami, probably. If it hit the land, it would have major effects but only locally. Chances are it hits a desert or remote region that’s uninhabited or hardly inhabited - and you might get a few casualties, but probably not many. Chance of hitting a highly populated region is low. If it does, you’d get thousands, or even millions of deaths. But it is not big enough to have global effects.
With tsunami - then that’s not very well understood. But it’s different from a tsunami resulting from an earthquake. With an earthquake the entire floor of the ocean over a large area shifts up or down. But with a meteorite impact, the impact creates a temporary hole in the ocean which quickly fills up again. This means that you have a big wave goes outwards, but then it gets pulled back in again almost immediately. It’s hard to calculate the effects of this, but probably it has most effect if the asteroid hits in shallow seas close to the land. So the 800 meter asteroid - maybe it is just large enough for a tsunami if it is close to land and hits a shallow sea. The experts would probably argue back and forth on that.
You can use this calculator from Imperial College London to get a first idea of the effects of an asteroid impact. Putting in 800 meters, it would have major effects locally. At a distance of 100 km, wall bearing multistory buildings are blown down, most trees get blown down, windows shattered, and you will get a fine dusting of ejecta with occasional larger fragments, clothing, newspaper, trees etc all ignite. Calculated Results. It will make a crater over 17 km in diameter so you don’t have any chance of survival if you are within the region of that crater. Even out to 200 km clothing, newspaper etc ignites, but at 300 km you are safe from that. Glass windows would shatter. Calculated Results
That’s just one model of what happens, so to take it with a pinch of salt, but it gives a good first order idea of the results.
An asteroid 1 km or larger starts to have global effects, and from 10 km upwards, then it has major impacts on our climate for many years. But none of those would destroy all life on Earth. For that, you need an asteroid of several hundred kilometers in diameter. An asteroid as large as that would melt the crust globally and cause oceans to evaporate and the Earth would be sterile to some depth - but even then, you’d have some life still survive kilometers below the surface, probably.
However we haven’t had impacts large enough to do that since the early solar system. They stopped some time after the formation of the Moon. All the big craters and the lunar Mare on the Moon happened in a short time period of a few hundred million years - some think they may have happened over an even shorter timescale of just millions of years. The Apollo and other lunar missions in the 1960s through to the 1970s didn’t return enough by way of samples and data from the Moon to answer that question to that level of detail, because they only sampled a relatively small part of the Moon’s surface, so the question remains open.
However whether they ended 3.9 billion years ago, or just under 4.5 billion years ago, it hardly makes much difference. The main thing is we just don’t get impactors that big any more. This is clear from the cratering record of Mars, the Moon, Mercury and what we have of the geological histories of Venus and Earth. There are plenty of objects large enough to do that, but they are either in orbits that are stable at least for millions of years, in the asteroid belt, or they are beyond Jupiter. Jupiter protects us from the largest asteroids and comets by breaking them up, or they hit Jupiter or the Sun or are ejected from the solar system long before they can hit Earth. It doesn’t do such a good job of protecting us from asteroids up to a bit over 10 km in diameter.
Those can’t make all life extinct. At least a few percent of species will survive. And humans are great survivors. With just minimal technology, clothes, fire, boats, we can survive almost anywhere on Earth - many of us may have forgotten how to do so, but at the least, some of us would survive on shellfish, insects, fruit, seeds etc, and it just needs a few things like that to survive the impact, as they would ,and humans can cultivate them, travel to find them. We wouldn’t go extinct.
But we don’t need to worry about this happening at present anyway. The recent all sky surveys have been very successful in searches for the largest asteroids and we know the orbits of all the asteroids of 10 km or larger that could hit Earth. None are going to hit us in the next several centuries. We’ve found more than 90% of the 1 km ones and none of those will either. This is as expected because such impacts are very rare (not been any in all of human history) but we know for a certainty now about the 10 km ones and will find 99% of the 1 km ones by the late 2020s.
As for comets, at present only 1 in 147 is a comet, of the ones that pass Earth. That reduces the chance of a large comet 10 km in diameter or larger hitting us this century to a really tiny 1 in 100 million. We’d see a comet coming years in advance anyway, especially one that big, many years before. And Earth is such a tiny target, that it’s almost bound to miss us like the comet Siding Spring that had a tiny chance of hitting Mars but missed. But that 1 in 100 million is such a tiny figure we can ignore it. Smaller comets could hit us with a higher probability, but they are not the top priority of the searches at present because they also are very rare too compared with ordinary asteroids..
See also my Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
With difficulty. 2 + 2 = 4 is a simple theorem which you can deduce from the definition of addition. There are ways to make 2 + 2 = 5, however, you can expect them to be rather bizarre.
First, it’s ...
(more)With difficulty. 2 + 2 = 4 is a simple theorem which you can deduce from the definition of addition. There are ways to make 2 + 2 = 5, however, you can expect them to be rather bizarre.
First, it’s easy to prove that 2 + 2 =4. You just need the rule x + Sy = S(x + y) where Sx means the successor of x, or x + 1. With some more steps, with simple natural axioms, you can also derive a contradiction from 2 + 2 = 5. Proof indented so it’s easy to skip.
Define 2 = SS0, 4 = SSSS0, and 5 = SSSSS0, then 2 + 2 = (SS0 + SS0) = S(SS0 + S0) = SSSS0 = 4.
So, if you add 2 + 2 = 5 (or SS0 + SS0 = SSSSS0) as an axiom to your axiomatization of arithmetic, then you deduce immediately that 2 + 2 = 4 = 5.
So then, so long as you have the rules that
- Sx = Sy -> x = y, and that
- 0 is not the successor of any number
you end up, after a few more steps, proving that S0 = 0, contradiction.
Here I'm using the rules of Robinson arithmetic - leaving out the rules about multiplication - rules 1 to 5 here. See Robinson arithmetic You don't need the rule 3 that every number has a predecessor to derive a contradiction from 2 + 2 = 5.
So, basically it’s just Robinson’s first three axioms, the fifth one, and the definition of 2, and 5, and the contradiction drops out. This is one of the simplest axiomatizations of arithmetic, and though you can add more powerful deduction rules, so long as you have addition at all, with any ordinary form of arithmetic, then this is going to drop out quickly as an easy result, that 2 + 2 = 4, and that this is inconsistent with 2 + 2 = 5.
So, you have to change something there, to make 2 + 2 = 5. Here are a few ideas:
1. change the definition of =. You could easily have 2 + 2 = 1 (mod 3) with modulo arithmetic, or “clock arithmetic”. E.g. on a clock, then 6 hours after 8 o’clock is 2 o’clock. So 8 + 6 = 2. That’s called modulo arithmetic, 8 + 6 = 2 mod 12, - means you treat numbers that are 12 apart as equal. You add a rule n + 12 = n, and drop the rule that 0 doesn’t have a successor.
So, you can do the same with modulo 3 arithmetic (say). Add the rule that n+3 = n. Drop the rule that no number has 0 as its successor. But that particular modulus of 3 won’t work because 5 = 2 mod 3.
It's not so easy to define an = with 2 + 2 = 5. You want to have 4 = 5 for that to work, but how can that be if the modulus is greater than 1?
I can only see one natural way to do this, and it's rather trivial. Modulo 1 arithmetic, where every number is equal to 0, and the successor of a number is itself, and bizarrely you decide to work with SS0 and SSSSS0 even though they are both equal to 0?
2, have non associative equality, that Sx = x for every x, and then 4 = 5, similarly 3 = 4, but you don't have 3 = 5 (otherwise it is just the same as modulo 1 arithmetic).
Or some other experiment along those lines, strange re-interpretations of =.
3. Redefine addition. That's the easiest way to do it, There are many binary operations and you can just make one up.
Define (+) so that x (+) y = x + y + 1. Easy peasy. Done!
4. Redefine 5 to be a symbol for 4. You now need a new symbol for 5, and might as well redefine 4 to be a symbol for 5.
5. Paraconsistent logic. Just add 2 + 2 = 5 as a new axiom, and accept that your system of axioms is inconsistent.
6. Strange deduction rules or conventions. E.g. use the convention that in any equation, you always add 1 to the right hand side, so that when you say 2 + 2 = 5, you mean the same as what ordinary folk mean when they write 2 + 2 = 4. Similarly you'd write 3 + 5 = 9 etc.where by 9, when it's on the right hand side of an equation, you mean 8. Then 3 + 5 + 7 = 8 + 7 (because 3 + 5 = 9) = 16.
7. Numbers that are time dependent, or for some other reason are fluid and changing, as you go through the equations. So, 2 (+) 2 = 5 because one of the objects you are counting split in two. For instance a number system to count clouds. Have a convention that when you say A = B then the = sign here represents the situation after a time step of ten minutes, say. Then 2 (+) 2 = 5 means that 2 clouds + 2 clouds, ten minutes later, became 5 clouds. It would be empirical without a deduction system, you are just noting down observations, not proving a result about numbers.
Blue Sky and White Clouds - if you had a system that’s based on counting clouds, and the convention that in an equation, time increases as you go to the right, then you could have numbers with bizarre seeming properties if you didn’t know the convention. This is a special case of redefining =.
Or maybe you have some rule about formation of new clouds, or whatever the objects are. E.g. that whenever you have at least 4 objects, a new one gets added, and more generally, you add as many new objects as there are multiples of 4 on the left hand side. E.g. 4 (+) 6 = 12 because 4 + 6 = 10, that’s two multiples of 4, so you get two new clouds (or whatever) so the right hand side needs 2 added to it. This is different from redefining addition because 12 doesn’t equal 4 + 6, rather, 10 = 6 + 6, because you have the convention that it’s a time series increasing from left to right. It’s more like a strange deduction rule combined with a reinterpretation of = than a way of redefining +. You’d also have 10 = 12 = 14 = 16 = 19 = …
Or perhaps the numbers just change randomly, so sometimes 2 clouds + 2 clouds = 4, sometimes they = 5, sometimes 1, sometimes 23 etc. If you were talking about clouds and understanding = with this time convention approach then that’s the most likely situation.
It’s fun to imagine what it might be like to be extra terrestrials who live in a constantly changing environment, where the numbers of objects are never the same, so you can’t count in the ordinary sense - not even themselves. Sometimes they may wake up and find they have split into a dozen individuals, sometimes a whole community becomes a single organism, and it’s constantly changing, even from one minute to another - you can’t complete a thought process without the numbers of everything in your environment changing, so much so that their maths has some rather weird version of topology perhaps as its fundamental idea, not arithmetic, and when they develop numbers, maybe they would come up with some strange notions of = and other operations on numbers. Maybe they live in the cloud decks of a gas giant - and can’t see anything around them except clouds and vortices, constantly changing, and are similar in nature themselves.
There may be other ways. I'd say that 3, redefine addition, is the easiest way to get lots of self consistent theories that have 2 + 2 = 5.
See also my answer to Is it possible that an alien civilization has completely different mathematics than ours?
It’s a while since I did much by way of proving of theorems. But I can speak from when I was doing maths research in the 1980s through to 1990s.
I think the main difference between maths theorem pro...
(more)It’s a while since I did much by way of proving of theorems. But I can speak from when I was doing maths research in the 1980s through to 1990s.
I think the main difference between maths theorem proving and most problem solving is the length of time it can take. If you are doing a chess problem or crossword or some such (I’m not actually good at either of those but just as a “for instance”), you expect to finish it in minutes or hours. You wouldn’t expect it to take weeks or months.
Sometimes you can see an answer in a flash, but often, you may spend weeks, even months, trying to find an angle on a way to prove a central difficult theorem. Not that you spend all that time just working on that theorem, well you might, you might spend years on one theorem, some mathematicians do. But more often - it’s like, you have a fair number of things you want to prove, but there’s one central result that’s your main pre-occupation. “If only I could prove that!” So you have it on your mind and you keep niggling away at it.
Sometimes when you make the breakthrough, it’s through dreams. I didn’t actually solve problems in dreams myself, as far as I know, but often when I went to bed with a difficult maths puzzle on my mind, as I woke up the next day, I’d see the solution. It would just fall together and it’s like “why didn’t I see that before?”.
I think myself that it’s actually the transition between sleep and waking, when everything is a bit kind of blurry and you are not sure if you are asleep or awake, that one’s mind is in a way particularly fluid. When that happens, you may find a new approach that somehow gets you out of the logjam or the fixed tracks you got stuck on.
So, how do you start? Well, you aren’t going to suddenly solve it, if you haven’t got it on your mind. You try the most straightforward way of proving it first. Sometimes it is just obvious how to tackle it, and then you just follow your nose as it were, and you get to the answer. But often it isn’t. You try to prove it, and you find a big gap in your proof. So you learn something from that. That way doesn’t work. What else can you try?
You break it up into smaller bits. You think “If I knew xxx was true the theorem would be easy to prove - so can I prove xxx?”. You start with the things you know already and just play around, looking for consequences.
If you are doing research level mathematics then you have probably read many proofs in the past. So you also have various ideas you can try from those proofs “So and so used such and such to solve a problem like this, I wonder if it will work here too?”.
A lot of the research consists of taking results that someone else has already proved - and tweaking their proofs, taking them in unexpected directions.
A lot of it does consist of breaking big problems down into smaller ones, which you then can solve one at a time.
You draw diagrams, you may also try concrete examples. I want to prove something for all numbers - well - how does it work for 2, or 3, or 55 or whatever? Surprisingly often mathematicians don’t bother trying to look at concrete examples of what they want to prove. But sometimes, just by working through it like that, you may spot something about the problem that you just didn’t notice until you tried getting your hands dirty as it were, a bit like working on a bicycle or a car engine. You can’t solve it just by looking at it, you need to maybe take it apart and really get involved in it.
So you do all that and more. But often the solution just comes “out of the blue” as you are waking up, or when you are walking somewhere, or just in the middle of something else, That’s one of the most satisfying things about proving theorems in maths, the way that it can come together like that, suddenly sometimes, it was so confusing and complicated and then, all of a sudden, you get it.
ADDENDUM
A few other thoughts. First, your supervisor makes a huge difference, if you are a post grad in maths. In my case, my supervisor was Robin Gandy (who in turn was a student of Alan Turing). He had been involved in research into the logic of maths (“mathematical logic”) for decades, completing his thesis in 1952, only . Not only that, he’d talked to all the logicians of his time, been to their seminars, and he understood just about everything on the topic - modern maths is so specialized that often even the professors will only have a thorough understanding of a small part of their field of interest. He had a good grasp of pretty much all the research ever done in mathematical logic. He also had an amazing memory for detail, could mention details from a talk someone had given years earlier.
So, when you were stuck, he’d say “have you seen the research by so and so, it might help” and off you’d go and find that yes, what they did was relevant to your problem.
Your colleagues also. My supervisor had two other students at the time, all working in the same general topic area, and we often would bounce ideas off each other. Also the weekly seminars - they weren’t so helpful in a direct way - unless the speaker was involved in a research interest very close to your own - as most of the time you couldn’t understand 90% or even 99% of what the visiting speaker was talking about (unless you were Robin Gandy) but it still helped just to be exposed all the time to these various ideas, to chat to other logicians and so on.
Oh, it does happen. One of the earliest examples is King Ashoka. He lived just a couple of centuries after the Buddha, and he was involved in quite bloody military campaigns, until he converted to Buddhism. After that, he went on tours preaching the dharma, he encouraged dharma teachers, he put up pillars with dharmic texts on them and he ended up emperor of much of India. In that way he helped the dharma to spread over much of India.
Here is a photo of one of his pillars.
Buddha himself wandered around Northern India as a monk, with his begging bowl, and he taught anyone who wanted to learn from him. He first taught his five companions who had been following the path of asceticism with him, before his sudden change of direction towards the “middle way” when he became enlightened. So those were the first five people to follow his path.
He ended up having thousands of followers, who were drawn towards the teachings. Some just heard the teachings through hearsay from someone who had heard Buddha teach, and repeated his words to them, and immediately “got it” the essential meaning of what he was teaching. They must have been very receptive to the teachings to do that.
So - it’s often like that - spreading of the ideas. People hear of them. Nowadays you may read books, watch videos. In my case it was through a friend who I met who became a Buddhist nun shortly after I met her, and we talked a lot about the Buddhist teachings and I decided I wanted to follow that path myself eventually - after a fair while of listening to many teachings.
So there are many ways that the Buddhist teachings spread. Nobody says “go out and convert everyone to Buddhism” as happens in the more evangelical Christian churches.
But there’s no reason why one shouldn’t try to spread the teachings, and debate them with others etc, if one is in a position to do so and you feel that it is helpful to do so. Or in other ways, publishing books, building retreat centers, supporting teachers. It’s just a matter of ones own individual decisions.
It’s a bit like, say, astronomy. If you are keen on astronomy, you will tell people about it, anyone who is interested to listen. You might write a book on it. You might run a planetarium, or show the night sky through your telescope. That’s all proselytizing in a way. But you don’t feel “I have to convert everyone to astronomy” :). Yet, if you think it is worthwhile, interesting, inspiring, you naturally want to share this with others. So, proselytizing in this general sense is a natural thing, and of course, Buddhists proselytize about their faith too.
If it is far enough from the sun, way way beyond Neptune, then it could be heavier than Jupiter but almost certainly not as heavy as a brown dwarf (not heavy enough to have had a phase of deuterium...
(more)If it is far enough from the sun, way way beyond Neptune, then it could be heavier than Jupiter but almost certainly not as heavy as a brown dwarf (not heavy enough to have had a phase of deuterium burning when it was born).
If it is closer to the Sun then the limits are much more stringent. It’s much easier to see something if it is closer. If you reduce the distance of an object by a half, it is four times easier to see because the light from the Sun is four times brighter. But it is also four times larger, as seen from the Sun, or from Earth which is also very close to the Sun. The combination of both those effects is that a very distant object which is illuminated by the Sun gets sixteen times brighter if you halve its distance from the Sun. If it is ten times further away, then it is ten thousand times fainter.
So - that’s why it’s impossible that there are extra planets inside of Neptune’s orbit that we have never spotted to date. We’d see them easily. But go to, say ten times the distance to Neptune, and we could miss rather large objects already. If it is over three thousand times the distance to Neptune, we could miss even an object as large as Jupiter out there, easily.
LIMITS FROM THE WISE SURVEY
The original paper for the WISE results implications for planets is here:
A SEARCH FOR A DISTANT COMPANION TO THE SUN WITH THE WIDE-FIELD INFRARED SURVEY EXPLORER
The survey is for gas giants, and stars rather than terrestrial planets shining only by reflected light. It was an automated computer search with any tricky borderline cases investigated by hand.
The scans overlapped at the ecliptic poles. Each spot of the sky was photographed twelve times in the ecliptic, but hundreds of times at the poles. So there is no way it can miss planets that are out of the ecliptic - it is more sensitive to those than planets in the ecliptic.
Artist's impression of the Wide Field Infrared Survey Explorer which has produced the tightest constraints to date on Planet X.
It gives strong constraints on a Jupiter or Saturn sized object. A Jupiter sized object must be at least 82,000 au from the sun, and a Saturn sized object at least 28, 000 au. But a brown dwarf can actually be similar in size to Jupiter and also very cold and as well as that, it can be much darker than Jupiter in appearance (though not invisible in reflected light, - our Moon is as dark as worn asphalt and of course, easy to see).
Anyway, apparently it would be possible for a small, dark and very cold five billion year old brown dwarf to be in our solar system at a distance of 26,000 au, even closer than the limit for Saturn. That's 650 times the distance to Pluto, or 0.41 light years away - so far away it would take light over 21 weeks to get from the brown dwarf to Earth.
The survey could spot the more usual 150 K brown dwarf (that’s a very cold brown dwarf, -123 C) out to ten light years away.
That's why the idea of an unseen star is getting increasingly unlikely. It couldn't have missed a red dwarf star, even the smallest. It couldn’t have missed any kind of a star at all. It just possibly could have missed a very dark very very cold brown dwarf in a rather distant orbit. But brown dwarfs are less common than they used to be thought to be. As a result of the WISE survey again, it's now thought that there are six normal stars for every brown dwarf.
Also it's not too surprising that our solar system turns out to have no companion star, not even a red dwarf - the majority (54%) of sun type stars are single. And a binary system is less likely to have stable planets, unless the companion is very distant, or very close to the sun. And what planets it has are more likely to be in very eccentric far from circular orbits, again unless the companion is very distant. So, given that we live on a planet with a stable near circular orbit - there's a selection bias in favour of non binary solar systems on top of that 54% result.
Constraints on dark matter in our solar system
By dark matter here the authors mean any form of matter not yet known including asteroids as well as the hypothetical "dark matter". So it's also relevant to things like "Nibiru".
See Constraints on Dark Matter in the Solar System
Any matter inside of Saturn would be easy to spot from its gravitational effects on Mars, Saturn and the Earth. The reason they chose those three planets is because we have had Cassini in orbit around Saturn for years, and many spacecraft sent to Mars, and of course with Earth also - it means we have very precise measurements of their position in their orbits going back many years now.
Then, taking account of the effects of all the known matter in the solar system, they concluded that there is at most 1.7 ×10^−10 M⊙ missing from the matter we know about inside of Saturn. That's unfamiliar units, for most of us, expressed in terms of the mass of the sun, which is 1.989 × 10^30 kg So this means we are missing at most 1.17 × 10^20 kg. By comparison, the mass of Ceres is 8.958 × 10^20 kg. So we are missing less than a seventh of the mass of Ceres.
To put it another way, if you had an asteroid with same density as Ceres, with this amount of mass, then its diameter would be 950*cube root(1.17/8.958) km or about 480 km in diameter.
So if all that matter was concentrated into a single object inside of Saturn's orbit, it can't be larger than about 480 km in diameter. Or if it was made of ice, it's diameter can't be larger than 950*cube root(2.161*1.17/8.958) km, or about 623 km in diameter
So there is no way that there are even any unknown large asteroids as large as Ceres inside of Saturn right now. If there were any, then we'd have spotted their effects on the orbits of Saturn, Mars and Earth through the sensitive position measurements we can do nowadays, no matter where they are.
When you get to the region inside of Jupiter, then as a result of the PAN-STARRS all sky survey for asteroids, we have a complete listing of all the asteroids of ten kilometers and larger. The only ones that could be not yet discovered are of order of one kilometer or so downwards. And we are discovering the one kilometer asteroids at one per month and have already found more than 90% of them.
There is another place where some largish objects could be hidden, and that’s close to the Sun, well inside Mercury’s orbit. They could be up to tens of kilometers in diameter, but there have been searches and nothing was found, not yet. These would be objects that permanently orbit the Sun very close to it, and are of no risk to us, not for thousands of years, probably millions of years anyway.
Note, none of the asteroids found by PAN-STARRS etc are headed our way either - though there are thousands of them, space is vast, and for them to hit us is harder than to hit a dust mote by throwing something even smaller in its direction in a large room. Whenever they find a new asteroid, they work out its orbit, and publish the latest calculations - it is all done in an open way and there is no possibility of hiding anything. They usually find out pretty quickly that it is not going to hit us in the next couple of centuries, up to 2200 which is usually as far as they go in the published information.
Godel’s incompleteness theorem was proved specifically for an axiom system that includes addition, multiplication, numbers, and more than that too, that those all have to have particular properties...
(more)Godel’s incompleteness theorem was proved specifically for an axiom system that includes addition, multiplication, numbers, and more than that too, that those all have to have particular properties. And mathematicians generally believe them to be consistent, At any rate, there are many other complete, decidable and consistent axiom systems. Let’s unpack this in more detail.
Kurt Gödel who proved the remarkable incompleteness theorems. Turing and Church proved related theorems at around the same time.
There are many such systems of axioms but one of the easiest to state is the system of Peano axioms. It consists of some niggly axioms you have to add to define the operations of equality and adding 1. Then you also say that there’s a first number 0 (this is an axiom system for the non negative numbers only).
Then it has one very special axiom, the “induction axiom”. If a property is true of 0, and if you can prove that whenever it is true of a number n, it is also true of n+1, then this property must be true of all numbers.
This is the axiom that cause all the trouble. It lets you define addition, multiplication, and indeed what it means to take one number to the power of another one, e.g. 2^3, 5*7, etc etc. You can go on and prove many complicated theorems. For instance, you can prove that every number has a unique prime factorization. E.g. 30 = 2*3*5 where 2, 3 and 5 are all prime (are not divisible by any other prime numbers). And this is the only way you can express 30 as a product of primes. That’s the same for all numbers, they can only be expressed as a product of primes in one way.
Those were the main properties of numbers that Godel used to prove his theorem, together with frequent use of proof by induction. Once you have that much deductive power, then yes, you can’t prove that the resulting system is consistent.
So - that’s a big chunk of mathematics. We use numbers almost everywhere. But there are many areas of maths that don’t need numbers, or don’t need numbers with all that apparatus of deduction rules to prove things about them.
One excellent example here is geometry using rulers and compasses. Euclidean geometry. Euclid worked out the basic axiomatization, though he left out some things that seemed obvious to him, so obvious he didn’t realize they needed an axiom. One of the rules he left out is that if a line enters a three sided triangle, crossing one of its sides, it has to exit the triangle by crossing one of the other sides or the opposite vertex. It was so obvious that even with his careful logical mind, he didn’t realize he had it as an assumption.
Anyway - if you have a proper axiomatization of geometry - well there’s no mention of numbers there. And it turns out, not only that Godel’s theorem doesn’t apply, but if you are careful in how you set out your axioms, you can also prove that the resulting theory is consistent, decidable and complete. You can use Tarski’s axiomatization of geometry to prove this.
What’s more, even addition and multiplication are not enough for Godel’s theorem. They have to have very special properties, with quite a powerful deduction system. One nice system that you can prove to be consistent is the theory of real closed fields.
This is a theory with addition, multiplication, the numbers 1 and 0, fractions, so you can use it to express any ratio like 2/3, 4/5 etc. Also it’s “closed” meaning that given any sequence of numbers in it, then the limiting point of that sequence is also in it. In particular it’s going to include every infinite decimal, such as PI as the limiting point of 3, 3.1, 3.14, 3.141, 3.1415, …
It also has to have the <= relation which also has to work just as it does on the real numbers - given any pair of numbers, one is always smaller or equal to the other. But as well as that it has to have a total ordering. Given any pair of numbers, either they are identical or one of them is smaller than the other, and that if a<=b and b<=a then a = b, Also if a<=b and b<=c then a<=c. In short, it’s a total order.
Well - that may seem very similar to what you get with Peano’s axioms - after all we now have perfectly good numbers we can use for addition and multiplication. But - it turns out we just don’t have the same deductive power we have for Peano’s axioms. We couldn’t, for instance, use these rules to define exponentiation, primality, unique factorization etc because it doesn’t have an induction rule for the numbers. So we can’t prove Godel’s theorem for this theory either.
Well it turns out, if we add two more axioms, an axiom that it includes the square root of any number, and an axiom that it includes at least one solution of any polynomial equation of odd degree (linear, cubic, quintic etc) - then we can prove that the resulting theory is complete, consistent and decidable - that given any postulate you can state within the theory, then it is either true or false, and what’s more, there’s a procedure you can follow that is guaranteed to find the right answer.
Now - this process for finding the right answer to any question in the language is not very practical (nor is it practical for Tarski’s geometry either). The procedure is immensely complex and might take pretty much for ever on human timescales. Nevertheless, in the sense of Godel’s theorem, it’s decidable, consistent and complete.
So - now we’ve seen some rather powerful theories that are decidable, consistent and complete. So now let’s look at the opposite. Something that seems like a very weak theory, yet, it’s enough to prove Godel’s theorem, so it can’t be shown to be a consistent theory.
This is Robinson arithmetic
The axioms are, where “successor” here means the result of adding 1:
0 is a number and is not the successor of an number
If the successor of x equals the successor of y, then x = y.
Every number except 0 has a predecessor.
Adding 0 to a number has no effect: x+0 = x
Multiplying any number by 0 gives 0: x * 0 = 0.
Then, we have a couple of rules to define addition and multiplication. So, if S is the successor operation, then for every x and y:
x + Sy = S(x+y)
x . Sy = (x.y) + x
It hardly seems enough. Surely the resulting theory is logically weaker than the theory of real closed fields? Well, it turns out, the answer is no. There is enough deductive power here to deduce Godel’s theorem.
This theory therefore can’t be proven to be consistent except in a “stronger or equally strong theory”.
Now, this doesn’t mean that it is inconsistent. Indeed, it doesn’t actually rule out consistency proof. Indeed Gentzen did a consistency proof for Peano arithemtic, using a slightly different and in some ways simpler axiomatization of arithmetic called “primitive recursive arithmetic” plus something called “transfinite ordinals”. All of this is very techy, but mathematicians find this reassuring because Peano arithmetic with its induction axiom seems a bit uncomfortably like the powerful theory of Frege’s axiomatization of set theory, but this other axiomatization is in a way more straightforward. So it’s good evidence, perhaps, that we won’t get into any trouble by treating Peano Arithmetic as a consistent theory, even though we can’t prove this. Gentzen's consistency proof - Wikipedia
Rather, I think a better way of looking at it, by Godel's incompleteness theorem, any powerful enough system of axioms can never capture all the maths that is implied by those axioms.
If you've described it clearly enough so that it's totally clear how theorems are proved - then by Godel’s ingenious methods, that leaves it open to processes of adding new axioms to the system, which a mathematician can see must be true, but which are not included in your original list of axioms. It also leaves you open to the possibility of adding in the negations of those new axioms as well of course, if you want to explore systems that are omega inconsistent -if you are interested in these strange theories, where you can say “There is a number with property P” and yet can say “1 doesn’t have property P, nor does 2, nor 3, nor 4, nor 5, …” and every single statement of that sort is false. It seems inconsistent, but actually mathematically it isn’t possible to make a finite proof of an inconsistency. So it’s a bit weaker than normal inconsistency, and the techy word for this is “ω inconsistent” (there ω is a symbol used for the sequence of all the numbers 1 2 3 …. - it’s consistent unless you string together infinitely many statements which we can’t do in practice - so you can never prove it is inconsistent)
So anyway - you are not prevented from exploring those strange theories either in full knowledge of what you are doing. Indeed some mathematicians are also interested in “paraconsistent” theories - theories that have proofs of inconsistencies that are finite, but rather large, so you can work with them for a long time without hitting an inconsistency. These are not unlike ordinary logic that we use in everyday life. We are actually able to work perfectly well with inconsistent theories. E.g. - if you want to take something out of your house, you might think it is small enough to fit through the door upright, and actually try to take it out that way, only to find out it won’t fit. This means you had an inconsistent theory about that object. No problem. Modify your theory to say “oh I get it now, it has to be turned on its side” and now you can take it out of your door. In more complex situations you may work with beliefs or ideas you know to be inconsistent, but just avoid the situations where you have to face the inconsistencies. It might work just fine. In some areas, e.g. law, you may have to work with case decisions that are inconsistent with each other, and try to find a way through the situation. Basically we’d be hugely handicapped in our everyday life if we had to work only with consistent sets of ideas. So - sometimes it’s interesting to work with inconsistent sets of axioms in maths too.
So you can do all that. And you can also work with consistent theories of course. Or at least, theories that you have every reason to believe are consistent even though you can’t prove this.
Just use the axioms you can see to be true of numbers, based on Peano’s axioms, and then Godel’s sentence - see that it’s true - and so unprovable. Add it as an axiom. Just keep going. And you can then expand your axiom systems as needed in creative ways if you need to go beyond their limitations. Just on and on, as much as you like.
So - it means maths has to be creative, and never ending. And we can never know for sure that it is consistent once it reaches a certain level of complexity and power. But it doesn't have to be inconsistent.
Yes, there is a case of “once bitten twice shy” that when Frege published his life’s work, a foundation for all of set theory, then Russell found a mistake in it, he proved that it was inconsistent through Russell’s paradox. It could be fixed, but only in clumsy ways. This suggests that it’s not as easy to come up with a theory that you know for sure is consistent as one might think. Indeed Godel’s theorem shows we can’t prove that even the Peano axioms are consistent.
But I think most mathematicians would say that there is no real risk that the axioms are inconsistent in the sense of Frege’s set theory. We don’t need to worry that some ingenious fellow will pop up, like Russell did for Frege, and say “look, here is a proof of an inconsistency from the axioms of Peano arithmetic”. Most mathematicians would say we don’t need to worry about that possibility.
They are just impossible to encapsulate completely in an axiom system that captures all their properties. That’s why they aren’t decidable, are incomplete, and can’t be proven to be consistent.
Now, I should mention Gödel's completeness theorem because this confuses many people. It’s a different notion of completeness from the one used in Godel’s “incompleteness theorem”. It’s about the formal consequences of the axioms, not the informal consequences that you can see by reasoning about the theory in a meta mathematical way.
It says that if you enumerate all the proofs that you can make using the axioms of the theory - those are all the results you can deduce from the axioms and the only results you can deduce. There are no hidden extra axioms you need to add to “complete” the theory - it’s all there.
Put another way, then it says that if you interpret truth as “true in every possible model” then all such truths can be deduced from the axioms of your theory.
I should say - this is stuff I researched into back in the 1980s. I haven’t done any work on it at all since then, and if you asked me to go into details about some of these things, I’d have to “look it up and get back to you”. But hopefully it gives a reasonable idea of how it works.
It’s rather baffling, for sure. But I think the best way to look at it myself is that Godel proved that mathematics can’t stagnate and that there is need for endless creativity as it can’t be “cut and dried and diced” into a single overall theory that encompasses everything.
But some theories, notably geometry, can be made completely decidable, consistent and complete.
Also all the problems here are to do with infinity. If you are studying something finite, for instance a finite group, with a finite number of elements, so all questions can be answered by doing finite, if very complicated calculations - then that’s going to be a complete, consistent and decidable theory too. It’s just when you start having infinity come in in some way, that you may (but not always) hit this.
You might also be interested in my Russell's paradox
I’d say it is to do with whether the focus is on yourself or on others. The crazy yogins in Tibetan Buddhism only care about others. As Trungpa Rinpoche put it in one of his poems “Stray Dog”
(more)Chögya...
I’d say it is to do with whether the focus is on yourself or on others. The crazy yogins in Tibetan Buddhism only care about others. As Trungpa Rinpoche put it in one of his poems “Stray Dog”
Chögyam is merely a stray dog.
He wanders around the world,
Ocean or snow-peak mountain pass.
Chögyam will tread along as a stray dog
Without even thinking of his next meal.
He will seek friendship with birds and jackals
And any wild animal.
While those who are crazy and think they are imitating the crazy yogins, for them it is all “me me me” about their image, what they seem like to others, what they make of themselves, copying others, getting drunk, doing crazy things for the sake of those other crazy things which they think somehow are cool. None of that is crazy wisdom.
It’s when you let go of all that focus on yourself and think only of others, don’t care what happens to you, then you may touch crazy wisdom. It’s not a path to aspire to, as a career path or some such. Crazy yogins often die young, as Trungpa Rinpoche did. So there’s nothing in it for you if you do become a crazy yogin. And if you imitate a crazy yogin, then it’s going to get you into more and more trouble and that’s not an enviable path either.
It’s a path for very few, and the ones who follow it basically can’t help themselves. It’s just that it’s the path they ended up on as a result of their compassion. And in Tibetan Buddhism then one of the safety features is that generally they would do it in reliance on a teacher too. The teacher helps mainly by being “other” and not themselves. So they are not doing it for themselves, not at any level at all, not even the most subtle.
It’s not really a “higher path” either. It’s just one of many paths. Whatever temperament you have, whatever situation you are in, then you are on a particular path and whatever that is - that’s the one for you to follow :). Maybe you end up in a situation where what’s needed is crazy wisdom and this also is what springs forth. But that’s very very unusual. If you try to force yourself into such a path, then you are in for nothing but trouble. If you end up on such a path in the natural course of events, well, you are in for nothing but trouble too in a way, at least as ordinarily understood - look at Trungpa Rinpoche’s life - it was no walk in the park. But because the focus is on others, not yourself, then that’s not going to matter to you.
Spoken languages are clearly not his strong point. If he was anyone else apart from the Dalai Lama, would you expect someone who is expert and trained for many years in religious studies, or philos...
(more)Spoken languages are clearly not his strong point. If he was anyone else apart from the Dalai Lama, would you expect someone who is expert and trained for many years in religious studies, or philosophy, or any other subject, say physics, or mathematics, to be an expert spoken linguist as well? They might be or they might not. Similarly they might or might not be an acrobat, or great at sprinting or at marathons. Even in sport, then Usain Bolt is expert at sprinting, and Mo Farah is expert at the marathon, neither would be much good at the other’s sports at the international level, and after a certain age they retire from their sport, indeed Usain Bolt has already retired. There’s nobody who is champion of all sports or all intellectual endeavours either. The top Go player is not the same person as the top Chess player.
He was recognized from a young age as someone with deep understanding of the Tibetan Buddhist teachings, he passed his Geshe Lharumpa degree, which normally takes fifteen years of study as a young man in his early twenties. Since then he has mastered the teachings of all four schools of Tibetan Buddhism. He’s widely recognized by the Tibetan teachers themselves, and by Western academics too, as expert in Tibetan Buddhism. But he is not widely recognized as an expert in spoken languages or a polyglot. He is reasonably fluent, able to speak and be understood, but his grammar isn’t that good, his sentences are still somewhat fragmentary, and he doesn’t have a huge vocabulary in English and still sometimes needs to ask for translations of some of the less used words in our language. What’s the contradiction there?
I think perhaps it’s due to this kind of mystique, that he’s supposed by many Westerners to have “mystical powers”, to be able to foresee the future, to be some kind of a superman. But he is not a prophet or superman either. He’s greatly respected by Tibetans, both for his knowledge and also internalized deep understanding of Tibetan Buddhism. But they think of him as very much a human being like everyone else, not some kind of fantasy comic superman.
Yes, they feel there is some kind of a blessing connection with compassion, that’s carried by the line of Dalai Lamas. A connection with compassion that’s not limited in the way that ordinary compassion is, that is without any barriers or limitations or obstacles even. That’s connected to a deep understanding and wisdom, yes, as you say they also think of him as giving a connection to wisdom too, both in this senses of a blessing from his past connections, from previous lives, and also because of his many years of study of the Buddhist teachings, and not just study, also practicing and internalizing them, and the way he has received these blessings too from his many teachers who transmitted the practices of past Tibetan yogis to him.
But by wisdom, Buddhists don’t mean, intellectual knowledge, knowing lots of facts, knowing what the word is for anything in all possible languages, knowing exactly what Opportunity will discover over the next horizon on Mars, knowing the position of every asteroid and every boulder on every planet. It’s more a grounded wisdom, of having your feet strongly on the ground, clay between your toes, and yet with a vastness of understanding too, not shaken by anything. It’s sometimes called omniscience, but it is not the Christian idea of knowing everything. Rather, it’s a case that you are able to respond directly to the most surprising situations, open to anything that might happen, in this grounded yet vast way.
Also this compassion and wisdom is something that Buddhists think we all have a connection with and can find in ourselves, open up to, as something that is vaster than our limited ideas of what we are.
So, he’s thought to have a blessing connection with compassion and wisdom in that sense. But - he is no superman. He is like any of us, is going to die. He is practicing as a Buddhist monk, which is one of many paths in Buddhism. If you ask him if he is enlightened, he will say, no, he isn’t. Even if he is, there’s no reason for him to be a superman.
Despite all the movies and stories based around the idea of hiding an asteroid impact from the public, there is no possibility of that at all in real life. The night sky is open to anyone to observ...
(more)Despite all the movies and stories based around the idea of hiding an asteroid impact from the public, there is no possibility of that at all in real life. The night sky is open to anyone to observe if they have a telescope. There are many big telescopes managed by dozens of separate countries world wide of many different political persuasions. There are thousands of professional astronomers and probably millions of amateurs who are keen enough to have big telescopes of their own.
Also the way asteroid discovery is done is that as soon as anyone spots a new asteroid, they release these observations publicly to the minor planet center. All interested astronomers, including keen amateurs, can then point their telescope at the newly discovered asteroid. It takes big custom designed telescopes with huge mirrors and vast CCD chips to find the asteroids nowadays, because they have to scan large areas of the sky every night. Such telescopes cost many millions of dollars, and are way beyond the capability of amateur telescopes, which have to focus on just one spot in the sky. The Hubble space telescope is no good for this either, as its field of view is far too small. At present Pan STARRS is our best asteroid detection telescope though in 2022 then the large synoptic survey telescope will go into the lead when it starts work. These are telescopes managed by a consortium of many countries. There are several other large scale searches that find many asteroids, using ground based telescopes. NEOWise also helps, a space infrared telescope, so space telescopes can also help but only if they have a wide field of view and especially if they are able to detect infrared as asteroids are brightest in infrared.
So anyway - amateurs used to find many of the asteroids too, but nowadays just about all discoveries are made by these big wide field huge mirror telescopes with enormous CCD chips. But once you detect the asteroid, that’s only the beginning. If you have a single image, you have no way to know what direction it is moving, and Earth is a miniscule target, like trying to hit a single grain of dust in a large room by throwing another even tinier grain of dust, so small as to be invisible, in its direction. We have discovered over 16,000 asteroids to date that do flybys of Earth and potentially could hit us, including 876 larger than 1 km - that’s more than 90% of the ones larger than 1 km, and we are already tracking all the ones of over 10 km that have any chance of hitting Earth. We are tracking over 7,700 of 140 meters or larger. You can look up the latest figures here Discovery Statistics
None of those asteroids will hit Earth before 2200, which helps underscore how hard it is for a random asteroid to hit Earth. So detecting the asteroid is just the first step. It’s almost certain to miss us, every time it does a flyby, right through to 2200 and beyond. You then have to find its orbit. Theoretically, three observations are enough, if widely separated. But with Earth such a tiny target, in practice you need many more than that, to pin down the orbit enough to be able to tell if this even tinier asteroid could hit that tiny dust grain of a planet decades into the future. There everyone joins in, as once it is discovered, the amateur astronomers can track it too, for as long as it remains within range - as the discovery telescopes don’t use enormously high magnifications like the amateurs. The large telescopes do some follow up observation too - for instnace, next time that patch of sky comes around in the survey they will photograph the asteroid wherever it has got to, but their main objective is discovery, not follow up.
So the usual pipline is that the discovery telescopes survey large areas of the sky quickly, with very sensitive CCDs, then the amateurs, together with some professionals, look closely at each patch where an asteroid has been detected and publish their observations again through the minor planet center. Finally the geeky orbit calculators work out the orbit from the observations, predict where to look to observe it in the future, they also trace the orbit backwards so that you can look in pre-discovery images to see if anyone spotted it in the past and didn’t recognize it as an asteroid. As this goes on, you get more and more refined orbit calculations, better observations, and eventually you figure out if it can hit or not.
Sometimes at early stages, they figure out that it has a tiny chance of hitting Earth, and if that happens you get a “yellow alert” level, increased interest, everyone interested with a telescope would be working on it. Probably also they would schedule radar observations during close flybys too, using large radio telescopes like the Arecibo Observatory (if it passes within its field of view) . That’s especially useful if they can do it, because radar gives very precise distance measurements. Then as they refine the orbit, normally they find out it is going to miss Earth, as you’d expect, since the chance of hitting was tiny all along. If we get a yellow alert, as we surely will again in the future at some point, expect it to be downgraded to a miss as they find out more, as by far the most likely outcome.
All this is played out in public. If an asteroid has a tiny chance of hitting Earth, this becomes headline astronomy news. If it had a significant chance, I guarantee it, it would be world wide news on all the news networks. Experts would be discussing it, we’d be kept updated with all the latest theories and discoveries and updates on the latest probability estimates, and calls for amateurs to photograph it and send in their observations. If it was going to impact Earth and there was nothing we could do about it, they would say exactly where it would impact, and we’d get evacuations of the impact zone. The actual impact crater of a 1 km asteroid, which is about the largest that could catch us unawares with only months, or more likely years of warning, would be 10 km in diameter. So you’d definitely have at least a 10 km diameter region to evacuate, but probably much larger than that, if it was predicted to fall on the land.
There’d be large scale effects beyond that, blast damage, strong winds, broken windows, and there’d be some global effects like a large volcanic eruption. The climate might be cooler for a few years affecting crops. With some warning, you could prepare for that too, stock pile crops, work out mitigation levels etc.
That’s the worst that could happen, but it is very very unlikely. Anyway in that situation we would evacuate the impact area - where the crater forms. The crater s very unlikely to overlap a city, and would most probably be in a desert area or in the sea since most of the Earth’s surface is sea or desert. If in the sea, a 1 km asteroid impact is large enough for a tsunami, but a predictable tsunami - you’d know when and where it would happen, months in advance or at least weeks in advance, exactly to the minute. Everyone would know to keep away from the sea shore at that time, and they’d have predictions of how high it would be, so how far away you’d need to go, again months or weeks before it happened.
But this is very very unlikely. In the whole of human history we’ve never had an impact like that. We haven’t even had one of the 140 meter diameter impacts that would destroy a city if it hit one, and cause severe damage to a whole small country with the gusts of wind. And the risk this century is if anything less than in previous centuries, because we are tracking over 7,000 of those 140 meter asteroids and know none of those are headed our way. There are many more to discover, but the more we discover, the less our risk is, for the next couple of centuries, unless of course we find one that is going to hit, in which case it becomes a known hazard we can prepare for and work to deflect if possible.
Also, if we find a large asteroid headed our way, it’s far more likely to just miss Earth and do a close flyby than to hit, first time it flies past Earth, and to have a predicted hit decades into the future. That’s just because Earth is so tiny again, so a flyby is far more likely than a hit, so it does many flybys before it hits, so we are more likely to catch a potential impactor just before a flyby than just before a hit. In that case, we can then deflect it, with many ways to do it given decades of warning. You need only centimeters per second change in its speed, or even less if it does a flyby first, the most likely case.
The most likely size of impact to predict though is 20 meters upwards, maybe 40 meters in diameter. That’s because the numbers of asteroids increase hugely as the size gets smaller, so in fact, nearly all asteroids that fly past Earth are of this tiny category of 20 meters upwards. By comparison, the larger ones are rare. This is similar in size to Chelyabinsk or a bit larger.
They also are rare. Perhaps once every 80 years - and again most often will happen in the sea or over an uninhabited area of the Earth. These are too small for a tsunami, so we don’t need to worry about impacts in the sea, except to keep shipping and planes away from the impact zone during the minute of impact and a short while afterwards. Anyway - the very small 20 meter ones could slip through the net still and hit us undetected even up to the last minute like Chelyabinsk, if the final approach is from the direction of the Sun. Even the Chelyabinsk one, if it had been just a bit larger, say 40 meters, would have been discovered months in advance.
So - the most likely future headline is a predicted impact of a 40 meter diameter asteroid, with a lead time most likely of at least months, or it could be years or decades. It’s most likely to hit the sea. If it hits land, it’s most likely to be predicted to hit an uninhabited desert, or a sparsely inhabited area, so that at most, a few nomads or villagers might need to be evacuated. That’s the most likely scenario for the next predicted impact with consequences for humans. At a much lower level of probability, we have the chance that it hits a more populated area or a city.
At that size, it could definitely be deflected, given a lead time of years, especially if it does a previous flyby first. If discovered only weeks or months before impact, then it would be a case of evacuating the impact zone - it would only cause a small crater, but in worst case it could also cause an air burst just above ground level. So you might have to evacuate a region up to many square kilometers, as for the Tunguska blast. Beyond that region, then you’d warn people to keep away from windows during the event itself, and to beware of flying glass and protect themselves from it.
That’s the most likely future scenario. In any case the whole thing would play out in the public eye and there simply is no way it could be hidden, even if anyone wanted to. Basically because the night sky is open to anyone to observe and nobody can do anything about that, even if they wanted to. And they haven’t even tried. Indeed we’ve had several “dry runs” for this. Apophis briefly went right up to the topmost of the yellow alerts, and this was widely publicized at the time, and you could follow the successive announcements as they first had a slight increase in the alert level, then they found that it was going to miss Earth, but for a while had a chance of an impact at a second flyby - but all the time these predictions were low probability so it was no surprise to anyone that eventually they proved that it would miss.
During all of that, the new observations and calculations were simply published publicly as soon as they were known.
We’ve also had a couple of very small asteroids that hit Earth, in a remote desert in Africa, and in the sea off India, which were predicted to hit just hours before impact. Again that was all done in public.
So my answer is, first, yes of course it should be made public, because that way you can save many lives, and we can also all work together to find a way to deflect it, if that is at all possible. But there is no choice anyway. It all would play out in the public arena, no matter what choices anyone might try to make behind the scenes, and astronomers and governments world wide recognize this, so they wouldn’t even try to hide it, knowing that it is impossible to do that.
You can check if there is any predicted impact easily, go here, Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring
Click on "Unconstrained settings", then, as it is sorted with the highest risk first, if the top entry is white, blue or green there is no predicted impact, or it is too small (if blue) to be of any consequence. If yellow, it's like a yellow alert that will most likely turn out to be a miss. If it is red, you'll know all about it anyway as it will be top of the news not just in astronomy news sites but on the mainstream media news too.
Yes, they are fake. Some are just out and out frauds doing it for the youtube ad revenue (which can be a lot, thousands of dollars a month for the most popular Nibiru channels, according to the est...
(more)Yes, they are fake. Some are just out and out frauds doing it for the youtube ad revenue (which can be a lot, thousands of dollars a month for the most popular Nibiru channels, according to the estimates of SocialBlade), or who knows what reason. Some fancy themselves as prophets, maybe they predicted that Trump would be president and are so impressed by the accuracy of their own prediction that they start believing that anything they predict is true. Or they hear voices which they think are extra terrestrials, and think they are telling them the truth, or they use ouija boards and think they are contacting demons who for some reason can see the future and also tell them the truth about the future.
There’s one example we’ve been discussing recently on the facebook Nibiru debunking pages, of a lady who seems to be a legitimate particle theorist with a doctorate, but if so, she doesn’t seem to know the first thing about astronomy, saying absurd things about brown dwarfs. She claims to be Doctor Claudia Albers, who is a genuine professor at Witts university in South Africa. Does anyone reading this know if she is indeed the same person?
Anyway, whoever she is, she says that white dwarf stars (eventual end state of a star like our Sun billions of years into the future) eventually turn into “brown dwarf stars” - a category of star she has made up herself, consisting of a white dwarf star obscured by gas and dust - then into brown dwarfs proper. She claims that brown dwarfs have a dense solid core like a white dwarf surrounded by gas and dust - so presumably electron degenerate matter, without atoms or molecules as we understand them. This is a very eccentric theory as white dwarfs have a mass similar to that of the sun, forming at a late stage, and are able to have such dense cores because they are so massive. All the evidence points to brown dwarfs being “failed stars”- large planets similar to Jupiter but more massive, but not nearly as massive as even the smallest proper star. A brown dwarf by definition didn’t have enough mass to initiate hydrogen burning as a normal star, but may have had some deuterium fusion at an early stage until it sputtered out, which is how it got warm enough to be spotted in infrared. It has a dense core, like Jupiter, but not nearly as dense as a white dwarf star. A brown dwarf’s core is still made of normal non degenerate matter.
Even more absurdly though, she says that our solar system has numerous brown dwarfs in it, and because they are warm, and most easily detected in the infrared, therefore they are invisible. Nonsense! Since when did warming something up make it invisible? The coldest darkest brown dwarf known, at the distance of Jupiter, would be as bright as Betelgeuse, the bright reddish star in the shoulder of Orion. That’s because, being visible, it would shine by reflected light. The Moon is made of dark rock, as dark as worn asphalt, but is of course easily visible in our night sky, so something being dark in colour doesn’t make it invisible either.
She then goes on to say that these invisible brown dwarfs in our sky make our sunsets red. See this point in this video. If their light makes our sunsets red, given that red light is visible light, then how can this light at the same time originate from invisible brown dwarfs? Meanwhile the reason the sunsets are red is well understood, as because the light from the setting sun passes through so much atmosphere, that it is scattered by Raleigh scattering, for the same reason that the daytime sky is blue. That’s just a sample of many absurdities. She can’t seem to say more than a few sentences without putting her foot in her mouth, showing pretty much total ignorance of basic astronomy, though sprinkled with many things she says that are true. She must have read around in the subject, but apparently, not understood some of the most basic ideas that inform it.
It’s embarrassingly bad science. Her ideas just make no sense and I find it hard to credit that someone so qualified could come to believe such things. If she is indeed the same person as that professor, perhaps it is an example of how over specialization can lead academics sometimes to have a very narrow range of knowledge, mainly limited to their particular field of expertise? Her speculations in this area of course are not peer reviewed and haven’t been submitted to scientific journals. Yet she gives youtube video presentations, in which she claims that her ideas are correct. Could be an eccentric physicist crank, as you do get such sometimes, speculating beyond their sphere of expertise and then coming to believe those speculations as the truth. Or it could be someone else impersonating a genuine physicist who has nothing to do with these ideas. Hard to say. If anyone knows more about this, do say. Incidentally her videos have a link at the top of the video description, which you can use to send a donation to help the professor, so she has a financial incentive for posting them.
I did a short checklist some time back of things they say in these youtube videos and the conspiracy websites, that may seem impressive to those with no background in astronomy, but immediately disqualify them as people who know about the subject, if you have a basic understanding of astronomy.
Here is an article I did to help:
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Many of the Nibiru website authors claim to be very knowledgeable about astronomy. It is easy to test though, and find out that they don't understand this stuff. Here are some things they may say which immediately show they are mistaken, don’t have the most basic understanding of astronomy, and don't check their sources.
This rather dramatic image has gone the rounds a bit and been posted as a photograph of a double sunset in China. It's actually an artist's impression from NASA of a double sunset over an alien planet.
If someone tells you that we have two suns - then you know they are speaking BS. Click away as that means they don’t have the first clue about astronomy.
It is dead easy to check that we have only one sun. Hold a finger in front of it (don’t stare at the Sun as you won’t know if your eyes get damaged) With the sun blocked, do you see a second sun to either side, or above or below? No! Therefore we have only one sun. It really is as easy as that to debunk this one.
If anyone says any of these things and claims to be an expert in astronomy - that’s like someone telling you that Usain Bolt is a top seeded tennis player and won Wimbledeon and then claiming to be an expert on sport.
That wouldn’t lead you to suddenly wonder if he really is a tennis player and wonder if all the Olympic finals were faked to make him out to be a sprinter. You’d just look at the person who said this askance, or indeed aghast, and then from then on you’d probably never trust anything they say on matters of sport.
Usain Bolt winning the 100 meters in Bejing in 2008. If someone told you he was a top seeded tennis player - that would just lead you to treat that person as someone who doesn’t know what they are talking about in matters of sport.
So - it’s like that if you have even a basic understanding of astronomy and someone says any of those things I listed, or posts them on a website, or a youtube video, you immediately know that this person knows nothing at all about astronomy. They know as much about astronomy as the person who said that Usain Bolt was a tennis player knows about sport.
There are many other things they say that are immediate giveaways that they don't have the first clue about astronomy. Indeed if an article claims to be astronomical and uses the words Nibiru or Hercobulus or Wormwood, then unless it is a debunking site, that is a giveaway sign that the author knows nothing of modern astronomy. But what I've listed there already deals with 99% of them probably. That is except for the ones that have no astronomy and just base their prophecies on miracles and the Bible or such like.
If anyone says any of those things, they don't understand astronomy, just click away. See also my Debunking: You can’t trust anyone except the Nibiru people - everyone else is a paid shill of the government or in some other way motivated to propogate falsehoods
And for why astronomers are sure that Nibiru is just nuts, see
Debunked: Nibiru will hit Earth on [Insert Date here]
Also, I did a petition to youtube, to ask them to stop ads on doomsday videos, to remove the profit motive for predicting the end of the world on youtube. I think it is unethical to reward people with ad revenue for predicting the world will end in click bait titles. They do have a policy of no ads on ethically problematical videos, so it is consistent with that. It’s not restricting free speech in any way, as the people who upload these videos would continue to be free to say on youtube that the world will end, just won’t get ad revenue for it.
If you agree do sign it, here
The Moon surface, on average, is about as dark as worn asphalt, with most of the rocks rather dark in colour. However, the sunlight there is very bright, not filtered out by the Earth’s atmosphere ...
(more)The Moon surface, on average, is about as dark as worn asphalt, with most of the rocks rather dark in colour. However, the sunlight there is very bright, not filtered out by the Earth’s atmosphere or clouds, and there is no dust to block it. The Moon has a very thin “exosphere” but it is so tenuous it doesn’t block out any noticeable levels of light. It’s so thin that atoms and molecules seldom hit each other traveling on long “ballistic” trajectories.
Asphalt can be quite bright on a sunny day. The photographs are white balanced to show the astronauts’ spacesuits as white, and they were indeed white, so I think it is reasonably fair to say that they give a pretty good idea of what it was like to human eyes - unlike Mars photos which are colour balanced to look more Earth like, to help geologists identify rocks there. Our eyes automatically adjust to see the brightest spots in the landscape as comfortable, not too bright, white, with our irises contracting to keep the light levels down if the landscape is very bright. And even when it’s cloudy, then we don’t see the landscape as dark, as our irises then open out to take in more light, so things then seem brighter to compensate.
They always landed in the early morning on the Moon, in the fourteen Earth days long lunar day. That’s because it was neither too hot nor too cold for human comfort, in their spacesuits, and the shadows were just the right angle to pick out the features clearly. Too early in the day, and the whole landscape would be covered in shadow, making it almost impossible to pick out features visually or to land by eye. Too late in the day and the sun is overhead, as they always landed quite close to the equator, which would mean hardly any shadows, so the landscape is hard to read again. They had a rather limited range of sun angles that were suitable for a manually piloted landing on the Moon.
I’ve experimented with adding blue skies to the Apollo photos, and it looks just like a landscape illuminated on a sunny day on Earth. So, I think the best idea of what it was like for them is to go to any rocky landscape, and imagine replacing the blue sky by a black sky, and that’s pretty much it - apart from the lower gravity levels of course, and lack of any atmosphere, and need to wear spacesuits.
See my What if the Moon had blue skies for more on this (section of my online and kindle book Why Humans on Mars Right Now are Bad for Science. Includes: Astronaut gardener on the Moon)
Well the largest underground colonies could be as large as an O’Neil cylinder, if the lava tube caves are indeed kilometers in diameter and over 100 km long, as the preliminary data suggests is pos...
(more)Well the largest underground colonies could be as large as an O’Neil cylinder, if the lava tube caves are indeed kilometers in diameter and over 100 km long, as the preliminary data suggests is possible. If you filled that with air, and then gave it lighting, from solar collectors on the surface during the lunar day, and powerful LED lights backed up by batteries, well, you might well get some atmospheric circulation, and clouds, and so breezes too.
Artist's impression by Don Davis of the interior of an O'Neil style cylindrical space colony - from Space Colony art of the 1970s.
The caves on the Moon may be as vast inside as this, in the low gravity, several kilometers in diameter. The Grail radar data suggests the possible presence of lunar lava tube caves over 100 kilometers long. So, lunar caves could potentially be as vast as an O'Neil cylinder . If so, maybe some day we could have colonies like this on the Moon, easier to construct than an O'Neil cylinder - though probably multiple tiered and of course nobody living upside down on the roof.
The lighting for the caves could come from solar collectors on the surface channeled through optical fiber to the caves during the lunar day - and then from efficient LED lights at night powered either from stored fuel cells or power from strips or patches of solar panels that circle the Moon round to the day side. Solar panels are easy to make in the hard vacuum, solar panel paving rovers, especially since the nanophase iron makes it easy to turn the lunar soil into glass using microwaves (as easy as boiling water in a microwave). See Solar cells from lunar materials - solar panel paving robot in my "Case for Moon First"
For more about all this see my An astronaut gardener on the Moon in Why Humans on Mars First are Bad for Science.
Apart from that, as the other answers say, then artificial ventilation.
NASA is not in charge of astronomy world wide. It’s not even an astronomical organization. They do send some space telescopes into orbit, and they provide some funding that goes towards asteroid de...
(more)NASA is not in charge of astronomy world wide. It’s not even an astronomical organization. They do send some space telescopes into orbit, and they provide some funding that goes towards asteroid detection. But they are one of many space agencies. As for astronomers, there are thousands of professional astronomers and probably millions of amateurs with powerful telescopes.
There is nothing to be scared of. The whole thing is made up. By gullible people who don’t understand even the most basic ideas in astronomy, or hoaxers, or the like.
For the reasons why astronomers, if they have even heard of it, immediately dismiss it as BS, see
No, it’s a nonsense idea. For the reasons why astronomers, if they have even heard of it, immediately dismiss it as BS, see
(more)No, it’s a nonsense idea. For the reasons why astronomers, if they have even heard of it, immediately dismiss it as BS, see
No, the whole thing is total nonsense, which is promoted by the “red top” tabloid newspapers in the UK which are noted for their sensationalist and often completely fake stories. They often run fak...
(more)No, the whole thing is total nonsense, which is promoted by the “red top” tabloid newspapers in the UK which are noted for their sensationalist and often completely fake stories. They often run fake doomsday stories.
Summary - another doomsday story about Nibiru which shares many of the misconceptions floating around on the internet. He just repeats them and makes no attempt to check if they are true or not.
He thinks that the gravitational pull of the Earth is so great that an approaching entire solar system will be diverted into a loop around Earth, and he thinks that a planet approaching from the South would only be visible in a plane flying high above South America (for some reason) and lots of other nonsense things.
There is nothing here to be scared about.
DETAILS
This is yet another Nibiru story, publicized in
The journalists who write these stories clearly don't run them past anyone with any credentials in astronomy or science. Cross them off your list of news sites that provide reliable information on astronomy.
It publicizes the book by David Meade: Planet X - The 2017 Arrival I’ll just cover the part of his book that you can read with “look inside” as there is plenty there to debunk already, and the summary of his ideas in Sun magazine
For instance he says that the Vatican operates the Large Binocular Telescope
For debunking see Debunked: The Vatican built a huge telescope, one of the largest in the world, to track Nibiru
He says that Melissa Huffman’s video is of planet X.
For debunking see Debunked: Melissa Huffman did a video of Planet X
He says that the IRAS satellite spotted Nibiru. See Debunked: The IRAS infrared satellite found Nibiru in 1983
He says that Nibiru is only visible in the infrared spectrum. Brown dwarfs are easy to detect in infrared light, even if they are far from any star because they are warm (at least compared to interstellar space) - but that doesn’t make them invisible in ordinary light. That’s like saying that you are invisible because you are warm.
The darkest brown dwarf would be as bright as Betelgeuse at the distance of Jupiter and easily visible in telescopes way beyond Neptune. For details see Debunked: Nibiru is invisible because it is a brown dwarf or made of dark matter
He says it can’t be seen because it is approaching from the south.
“There is no hiding this incoming solar system any longer! It consists of a dark star, smaller than our sun, which hosts seven orbiting bodies, some smaller than our moon and a couple of them larger than our Earth. The dark star is called “Nemesis” or “Planet X.” The blue planet is called the “Blue Kachina.” The planet that is larger than Earth that is orbiting the dark star is called “Nibiru.” It is also known as “The Planet of the Crossing” and the “Destroyer.” There is another object – some refer to it as “Helion.”
“This system is, of course, not aligned with our solar system’s ecliptic, but is coming to us from an oblique angle and toward our South Pole. This makes observations difficult, unless you’re flying at a high altitude over South America with an excellent camera. As it intertwines and approaches it, will come from our south and loop all the way to the extreme north, then come back south again as it exits our orbital path.”
Overwhelming evidence for the 2017 arrival of Planet X / Nibiru
If a comet say, was approaching us from the south, would mean it is easy to see throughout the southern hemisphere. Indeed if it comes from due south, then you can see it all night every night all year round from the southern hemisphere, so long as there is a clear night. So approaching from south or north makes an object easier to see, not harder to see, so long as you live in the appropriate hemisphere and of course there are large numbers of people in the southern hemisphere :)..
This shows an almost total ignorance of astronomy and suggests he has never paid much attention to the real night sky. There isn't any hidden direction that things can come to us from, not the size of a planet never mind a solar system. The Cheliyabinsk meteorite could appear with no warning but that's because it is only 20 meters in diameter.
He also seems to think that Earth’s gravitational pull is so great that a star with several planets orbiting it approaching Earth would be diverted into a loop — the loop around Earth.
His September alignment is a very rough one, that all the planets are so close to the sun that they are impossible or hard to see. Not one that astronomers would pay much attention to. Not even as a "pretty sight" as you can't see it. And they aren't particularly close. The alignment of the Sun with the Moon is of significance because they cause tides and we get our largest tides at new and full Moon every two weeks, the "spring tides". None of the planets are close enough to cause tides and their alignments are of no significance. For details see: Debunked - an alignment of the visible planets behind the sun on 23rd September 2017 is a sign of the end of the world. by Robert Walker on Debunking Doomsday
Debunked: A planet in a 3600 year orbit can hide behind the sun for years on end
And for the reasons why a planet in such an orbit is impossible anyway see my Debunked: Nibiru will hit Earth on [Insert Date here]
You can be sure if anyone says something like this in all seriousness that they don't have a decent background in science. They don't understand concepts that you would cover already in any decent high school physics / science course. These are ideas that can be explained even to a very young child with an interest in science indeed,
See also my Nibiru Bullshit Tester - How to check if they know anything about astronomy
You don’t, it’s nonsense. The whole thing is BS - no such planet is even possible.
In “Planet X”, X stands for unknown. Pluto is so far the first and only confirmed planet X. We have had many “plane...
(more)You don’t, it’s nonsense. The whole thing is BS - no such planet is even possible.
In “Planet X”, X stands for unknown. Pluto is so far the first and only confirmed planet X. We have had many “planet X” candidates since then, but none have been confirmed.
The conspiracy theorists treat them as if they are all the same planet, with an orbit of 360 (or 3600) years crossing the orbits of all four gas giants as well as Mars and Earth. Even “Nemeisis” - a now pretty much disproved hypothesis of a red dwarf star or possibly a brown dwarf, orbiting our sun at a distance of a 1.5 light years away, in an elliptical orbit that sometimes takes it a bit closer to the Sun but still over a light year away, with a period of 26 million years! With the next close approach predicted for 15 million years in the future.
They look at this hypothesis and say “Look, told you so, that’s Nibiru with a period of 3600 years due to hit Earth next year or month and this proves they have been tracking it all along”. From the point of view of an astronomer the whole thing is total bonkers.
However ,there could be extra planets in our solar system. Not hiding amongst the planets we already know. That is impossible, we know the solar system out to Neptune and a fair bit beyond, like the back of our hand. But beyond that, it rapidly gets harder to see what’s there. The thing is that when you double the distance from the sun, a planet gets sixteen times fainter (a quarter of the apparent size, and the sunlight hitting it is four times fainter, so the image in the telescope photograph is sixteen times fainter).
If so they have to orbit way beyond Neptune or we’d have seen them long ago. A “brown dwarf” or a “red dwarf” would be ven more conspicuous -a brown dwarf is a failed star that is hot by its internal heat - that doesn’t make it invisible. It’s as easy to see in visible light as any planet, if near a star or sun. But invisible in complete darkness in the depths of space light years from any star because it is visible only by reflected light, unlike a star that shines by its own light no matter where it is. So we can see brown dwarfs by their warmth even if too far to see easily by reflected light, and we see red dwarfs because they shine by their own dim but easy to spot red light.
Also, if there are extra planets - they could cross the orbit of Neptune - Pluto does. But they can’t also cross the orbit of Uranus, never mind Saturn and Jupiter as well.
It’s 4.6 billion years since our Moon formed. Any planet that was in an orbit crossing those four gas giants would have been deflected from its orbit soon after it first entered it, within a million years. For instance if it was still in the orbit when the Moon formed, a time when the solar system was still in process of settling down, it would have gone well over 4.5 billion years ago.
It can cross one of the orbits, the orbit of Neptune, by being in a resonance. This means that whenever it crosses the orbit, then a bit like a child skipping a rope, it misses every time. Pluto does that, though it crosses Neptune’s orbit, Neptune is never there because it is in a resonance with Neptune. But it can’t cross two or more of those gas giants so never can come near Saturn or Jupiter never mind Earth. That’s why astronomers when they hypothesize “planet X” never hypothesize planets that come into the inner solar system. Those orbits are impossible - were possible in the inner solar system, but aren’t any more.
It can’t be in an orbit within Neptune because we’d have known about it for centuries.
So, it’s just not possible to have an extra unknown planet in our solar system that passes by Earth.
That leaves rogue planets coming from interstellar space. But those are so rare that there is no real chance of that happening either.
So no, it can’t happen at all. For debunking of many of the conspiracy theories see my
No, it’s BS. See my Nibiru Bullshit Tester - How to check if they know anything about astronomy and other answers in my List of the articles in my Debunking Doomsday blog to date
And my section
(more)No, it’s BS. See my Nibiru Bullshit Tester - How to check if they know anything about astronomy and other answers in my List of the articles in my Debunking Doomsday blog to date
And my section
No, Nibiru is a made up bullshit planet and there’s no clear idea behind it - the things they say contradict each other and they don’t have enough astronomy to realize it. Planet X is a name for an...
(more)No, Nibiru is a made up bullshit planet and there’s no clear idea behind it - the things they say contradict each other and they don’t have enough astronomy to realize it. Planet X is a name for any planet that is postulated to exist in our solar system and has not been confirmed. X stands for unknown. The first such, when it was confirmed, was named Pluto. We have had many “planet X” candidates since then, but none have been confirmed. The conspiracy theorists treat them as if they are all the same planet. But they can’t tell the difference between planets even if their orbital distances differ vastly, and period, something with a period of 360 years to them seems the same as one with a period of 26 million years orbiting 1.5 light years away. They treat articles by astronomers about such ideas as if they all described the same planet. It’s just codswalop.
But there could be extra planets in our solar system. If so they have to orbit way beyond Neptune or we’d have seen them long ago. Making them “brown dwarfs” makes them even more conspicuous -a brown dwarf is a failed star that is hot by its internal heat - that doesn’t make it invisible. It’s as easy to see in visible light as any planet, if near a star or sun. But invisible in complete darkness in the depths of space light years from any star because it is visible only by reflected light, unlike a star that shines by its own light no matter where it is.
Also, if there are extra planets - they could in principle cross the orbit of Neptune - Pluto does. But they can’t also cross the orbit of Uranus, never mind Saturn and Jupiter as well. The problem is that they would have to be in a resonance with Neptune to keep missing the planet every time they cross its orbit, otherwise they are bound to hit it sooner or later, or fly so close as to be deflected away somewhere else. It’s 4.6 billion years since our Moon formed. Any planet that was in an orbit crossing those four gas giants would have been deflected from its orbit soon after it first entered it, within a million years. For instance if it was still in the orbit when the Moon formed, a time when the solar system was still in process of settling down, it would have gone well over 4.5 billion years ago.
It can’t be in an orbit within Neptune because we’d have known about it for centuries.
So, it’s just not possible to have an extra unknown planet in our solar system that passes by Earth.
That leaves rogue planets coming from interstellar space. But those are so rare that there is no real chance of that happening either.
So no, it can’t happen at all. For debunking of many of the conspiracy theories see my
Nibiru is a made up bullshit planet and there’s no clear idea behind it - the things they say contradict each other and they don’t have enough astronomy to realize it. Planet X is a name for any pl...
(more)Nibiru is a made up bullshit planet and there’s no clear idea behind it - the things they say contradict each other and they don’t have enough astronomy to realize it. Planet X is a name for any planet that is postulated to exist in our solar system and has not been confirmed. X stands for unknown. The first such, when it was confirmed, was named Pluto. We have had many “planet X” candidates since then, but none have been confirmed. The conspiracy theorists treat them as if they are all the same planet. But they can’t tell the difference between planets even if their orbital distances differ vastly, and period, something with a period of 360 years to them seems the same as one with a period of 26 million years orbiting 1.5 light years away. They treat articles by astronomers about such ideas as if they all described the same planet. It’s just codswalop.
But there could be extra planets in our solar system. If so they have to orbit way beyond Neptune or we’d have seen them long ago. Making them “brown dwarfs” makes them even more conspicuous -a brown dwarf is a failed star that is hot by its internal heat - that doesn’t make it invisible. It’s as easy to see in visible light as any planet, if near a star or sun. But invisible in complete darkness in the depths of space light years from any star because it is visible only by reflected light, unlike a star that shines by its own light no matter where it is.
Also, if there are extra planets - they could in principle cross the orbit of Neptune - Pluto does. But they can’t also cross the orbit of Uranus, never mind Saturn and Jupiter as well. The problem is that they would have to be in a resonance with Neptune to keep missing the planet every time they cross its orbit, otherwise they are bound to hit it sooner or later, or fly so close as to be deflected away somewhere else. It’s 4.6 billion years since our Moon formed. Any planet that was in an orbit crossing those four gas giants would have been deflected from its orbit soon after it first entered it, within a million years. For instance if it was still in the orbit when the Moon formed, a time when the solar system was still in process of settling down, it would have gone well over 4.5 billion years ago.
It can’t be in an orbit within Neptune because we’d have known about it for centuries.
So, it’s just not possible to have an extra unknown planet in our solar system that passes by Earth.
That leaves rogue planets coming from interstellar space. But those are so rare that there is no real chance of that happening either.
So no, it can’t happen at all. For debunking of many of the conspiracy theories see my
Interesting question. Well it will be far from Earth well beyond the Moon which will make it a much fainter star than if it is in LEO. But it won’t move across the sky like the stars, so if you saw...
(more)Interesting question. Well it will be far from Earth well beyond the Moon which will make it a much fainter star than if it is in LEO. But it won’t move across the sky like the stars, so if you saw it with a conventional telescope it would move differently. In summary I make it’s magnitude between magnitude 17 and 18, with a “back of the envelope calculation”, and its apparent motion would be describing a circle around the antisolar point. This would make it easily visible within moderate sized (though fairly large) amateur telescopes. I make it that a 22 inch telescope should see it. But this is all rough first ballpart estimates. If I made no major mistake, I’d expect it to be accurate within a magnitude or two. Do take a look, and see if you think I got it right and do say if you know a better way to estimate it.
Here is its orbit.
And another take on it with more details
Both from: Orbit - JWST/NASA
So it slowly orbits around the L2 position, once every six months, at a distance from L2 similar to the distance of Earth from the Moon. It orbits there in order to keep all the bright objects in the sky for it, Earth the Moon and the Sun in the same direction so its heat shield can protect it from the light from them all. It’s designed to be so cold that even the light from the Moon, which would only be a thin crescent moon as seen from there, still needs to be shielded as it would have some warming effect.
It’s distance from Earth is 1.5 million kilometers. That’s 30,000 times the distance to a satellite in LEO passing overhead. But the brightness goes down as the square of the distance. So it would be 30,000^2, or 900,000,000 times fainter. That makes it around 22.5 magnitudes fainter. (100 times fainter equates to 5 magnitudes). By way of example, the ISS at its brightest is magnitude -5.6 ISS - Satellite Information
So the ISS would be about magnitude 16.9. Its solar panels have an area of 2,500 square meters as seen from Earth. ISS Facts!
The James Webb heat shield would be quite a large object 21.197 m x 14.162 m
That makes its surface area is 21.197 m x 14.162 / 2 (using the formula for the area of a kite). Or about 150 square meters. So it would be about 16.666 times fainter or a bit over 3 magnitudes fainter - that’s not taking account of the difference that the solar panels absorb light and convert them into power so optically dark while the heat shield re-radiates as much of the light as possible. So it would be much brighter. So that makes it brighter than 20 magnitudes, and isn’t really a very good upper bound on the apparent magnitude, but it’s a start.
Credit: STScI The James Webb Space Telescope
It’s designed as a radiator, not a reflector, so the heat I think would be radiated in all directions on the side towards the sun (though of course almost not at all towards the telescope). Temperature 85 C. It’s going to be in sunlight all the time as its distance from the L2 point is about the same distance as the distance of the Moon from Earth. Almost never obscured by the Moon. I suppose it could be, but only if the Moon happens to pass in front of it at the same time it is in the right part of its orbit to line up behind the Moon. So if it does, it would surely be a rare event.
So it would be a pretty much, or completely, constant feature of the night sky. I’d be surprised if it was bright enough to be naked eye visible, as much larger asteroids are not naked eye visible at that distance. Naked eye visibility is down to magnitude 6 or rarely 7 for keen eyed experienced observers from remote dark sites.
It would move in the sky in a way that would make it clear it couldn’t be anything else because it would slowly orbit the antisolar point in the sky as seen from Earth. But very slowly. So you’d need to watch it for a while to be sure it is moving and then to confirm that it is in an apparent orbit around the antisolar point as seen from Earth. But I can imagine amateur astronomers doing that and superimposing photographs to show it in many different positions tracing out a circle in the night sky with the other stars as short streaks, or a cycloid type pattern if done relative to the other stars shown stationary..
The average sun side temperature is not that different from the Moon. You’d expect it to be a bit warmer indeed, so we can use the Moon as a way to calculate a lower bound for its brightness. The global surface temperatures of the Moon as measured by the Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment
So the Moon has magnitude -12.6 What is apparent magnitude?
It’s cross sectional surface area is PI*(3,474/2)^2 = 9500000 square kilometers very approximately.
Compared to 150 square meters, or around 0.00015 square kilometers for the James Webb heat shield.
So the ratio of brightnesses is 9500000 /0.00015 or about 63,333,333,333. Or about 27 magnitudes. Giving it a magnitude of around 14.4 at the distance of the Moon.
But it’s (1.5 million / 384,400) times further away. Or about 3.9 times further away. So in brightness, around 3.9^2, or around 16 times fainter, very approximately. Or about 3 magnitudes fainter.
That would make it magnitude about 17.4.
This is a very rough calculation, assuming an albedo similar to the Moon. But surely it has higher albedo than that, probably far higher, as the Moon has albedo similar to dark asphalt. It might be similar in brightness even to the larger ISS with that 16.9 magnitude. But I think we have a reasonable ballpark figure to within a magnitude or two.
BTW I know I made many approximations in the calculations above, sometimes rounding up, sometimes rounding down. You could go through and use the exact values and only round at the end. There’s a theorem that if you do that, you get a result that is usually surprisingly close to the value you get if you round at each stage - the errors tend to compensate so long as you round randomly, e.g. round to the nearest value at some level of precision. So, someone could try a more precise calculation for sure. Or there may be a more direct way to work out its magnitude. But meanwhile, for this rough calculation I’m not sure if it is worth doing that.
So, basically yes, it would be a feature of the sky in our more sensitive telescopes and sky searches, e.g. searches for asteroids etc. For instance it would be well within the limiting magnitude of the Pan Starrs asteroid survey with limiting magnitude 24. Pan-STARRS - Wikipedia
But it would also be visible in quite small telescopes. Even the ISS at that distance would be visible in a 45 cm (18 inch) telescope Limiting Magnitude. The James Webb, if we got this calculation right, would be visible in a 22 inch (56 cm) telescope. Or a bit under 2 feet in diameter. So it would be a reasonably easy to spot object I think even in moderate sized amateur telescopes. The size that’s small enough that keen astronomers are able to transport them in cars and assemble at star parties.
So, if this is right, I expect it may be a thing that amateur astronomers might do, to photograph James Webb and track its position through the sky, and the loops it makes around the apparent antisolar point (which itself slowly moves across the background of the distant stars). They could superimpose those images either in such a way as to keep the stars fixed, or to keep the antisolar point fixed and let the stars drift slightly.
Any corrections, or if you see an easier way to work this out, do say. It’s just a first back of the envelope sketch. But unless I’ve made a major mistake, I expect it is right within a magnitude or two.
It developed gradually over several centuries. Also though often of humble origins, sometimes the Dalai Lama could also be the son of rich parents. At times he has been the son of a nomad, of rich ...
(more)It developed gradually over several centuries. Also though often of humble origins, sometimes the Dalai Lama could also be the son of rich parents. At times he has been the son of a nomad, of rich parents, of farmers, of a Mongolian chieftain, born in India, Mongolia, different regions of Tibet. There’s no particular pattern, except that so far he has always been reborn as a boy, which had advantages for someone in a position like that in a traditional society like Tibet and just about everywhere else before about the mid to late twentieth century. He’s hinted that if the process continues he may be reborn as a girl in his next rebirth. Also they were recognized in many different ways. Indeed no two times was it exactly the same. The method of recognizing previous possessions is only one of many techniques and only part of the process when it is used, and used only occasionally.
The whole thing makes most sense if you believe in rebirth. If you don’t, it’s hard to make any sense of it at all, how this happened, and why it works. How could they recognize such a young child as a Dalai Lama, born in such diverse places, with no hereditary connection with previous Dalai Lamas, no connection through teachers, no connection of location, no lineage, in most cases recognized at too young an age to judge his aptitude as an adult so not through his intellectual or other abilities, indeed, through none of the things that would normally count as a reason for choosing the next in a line of succession?
I’m not going to attempt to try to make sense of it in any other way but just present it in terms of the rebirths idea, which I also believe myself, though I have no proof of rebirth. I keep an open mind about what happens when you die, but for me rebirth is one of the most likely possibilities. And anyway whether it is true or not, or a partial truth, or how much truth there is in it, there’s no doubt the Tibetans believe in it wholeheartedly and you can’t understand how the office of the Dalai Lama came about without presenting it in this way.
So, here I’m just going to summarize some of the relevant parts of the biographies on this page from the Dalai Lama’s website: Short Biographies of the Previous Dalai Lamas | The 14th Dalai Lama
The first in the sequence of rebirths, now recognized as the Dalai Lama is Gedun Drupa born in 1391, birth name Pema Dorjee. But the name Dalai Lama wasn’t used at the time. He was born to a nomadic family.
“The First Dalai Lama, Gedun Drupa was a great person of immense scholarship, famous for combining study and practice, and wrote more than eight voluminous books on his insight into the Buddha's teachings and philosophy. In 1474, at the age of eighty-four, he died while in meditation at Tashi Lhunpo monastery.”
The second Dalai Lama Gedun Gyatso, born 1475 told his parents as soon as he could speak that he was called Pema Dorjee and that he’d like to live in Tashi Lhunpo monastery. He was recognized as his rebirth age 11. He was born to a farming family.
The third Dalai Lama Sonam Gyatso, born 1543 was the first to be given the name Dalai Lama by the king of Mongolia, a name that has stuck ever since. So far he wasn’t a political leader of Tibet though. He was recognized as the rebirth in the line from Pema Dorjee age 3 by the ruler of Tibet. He was born to a rich family.
The Fourth Dalai Lama was born in 1589 in Mongolia, son of a tribal chieftan. He was recognized as the Dalai Lama at a young age but his parents refused to part with him until he was older, so he had his primary religious education in Mongolia from Tibetan Lamas. He was escorted to Tibet age 12 accompanied by both his parents. At this stage he is still not a political leader.
The fifth Dalai Lama Lobsang Gyatso was born in 1617. First to be shown objects the previous Dalai Lama owned, which he said belonged to him. This is when much of the modern tradition of the Dalai Lama as political and spiritual leader, living in the Potala Palace, first developed. He didn’t live in the Potala Palace, which didn’t exist yet, but he was the one who start the project of building it, which was then used by the next Dalai Lama.
“The Fifth Dalai Lama was recognized at a time when Tibet was in political turmoil. However, all this uncertainty was laid to rest by Gushir Khan, the chief of the Qoshot Mongols and in 1642, the Dalai Lama was enthroned in the main hall of Shigatse as both the spiritual and political leader of Tibet. In 1645, the Dalai Lama held a meeting with high officials of Gaden Phodrang on the construction of the Potala Palace on the Red Hill, where the 33rd King of Tibet Songtsen Gampo had built a red fort. In the same year, the construction started and it took almost forty-three years to complete.”
The sixth Dalai Lama Tsangyang Gyatso was born in 1682 in present day Arunachal Pradesh, India. Unlike the other Dalai Lamas he had no interest in taking the vows of a bikkshu. He lived in the Potala Palace but spent his days with friends in the park behind it, and nights in the taverns and had many girl friends and is renowned as a great poet and writer.
The seventh Dalai Lama Kelsang Gyatso was born in 1708 and returned to the theme of being a fully ordained monk, and like the first, was an expert on the sutras and tantras, academically gifted, and wrote many books on Tibetan Buddhism. He was also a great poet, with a focus on spiritual themes.
There were seven more Dalai Lamas after that including the present, but I’ve got to the point where most of the modern traditions were already established. The fourteenth Dalai Lama was exiled from Tibet and the Potala Palace after the Chinese occupation of Tibet, and renounced his position as political leader of Tibet some years ago.
He has said that he will not take rebirth in any area controlled by the Chinese so if he does have a recognized next rebirth, it will be outside of Tibet, which has happened in the past. He would leave instructions before he dies, and he would be recognized by other high Lamas as a young child. Interestingly, he has said that there is a chance he could take rebirth as a woman, if so she’d be the first female Dalai Lama in the lineage.
There are female lineages of rebirths, in Tibet, women practitioners of renown, though usually with women taking rebirth as women if I understand right, for some reason. In Tibet with still rather out of date traditional attitudes to women, as they are understood now, it would have been harder for a Tibetan woman to practice in many ways. (Remember even in Europe we had such attitudes right up to the 1970s and traces of them to this day perhaps), Probably much less so now and especially if born outside of Tibet. The Dalai Lama has been involved in movements to promote equality of women in Tibetan Buddhist practices.
So anyway if he does take rebirth again when he dies, it will be interesting to see who he takes rebirth as.
But he might also choose to end this practice. If so there will be no recognition of a rebirth of the Dalai Lama. Just as it began, so the lineage could end. It wouldn’t mean that there is no rebirth of him, necessarily, rather, that there is no child who would be recognized as the rebirth of the Dalai Lama. Nobody would know who he or she was in a previous life, which is the usual situation for most of us.
You can read the biographies of the full lineage of the previous 13 Dalai Lamas here Short Biographies of the Previous Dalai Lamas | The 14th Dalai Lama
And the story of the recognition of the current fourteenth Dalai Lama here
Birth to Exile | The 14th Dalai Lama
The current Dalai Lama age four as a young Tibetan.
The tiny farming hamlet Takster in Amdo province, where the fourteenth Dalai Lama was born to subsistence farmers in 1935 (Photo/Diego Alonso/Tibet Images) -
These photos are from Birth to Exile | The 14th Dalai Lama
I’m just commenting on the science stories. It has many stories that are sensationalist nonsense. But it mixes them up with some that are somewhat journalistic in tone, but reasonably straight repo...
(more)I’m just commenting on the science stories. It has many stories that are sensationalist nonsense. But it mixes them up with some that are somewhat journalistic in tone, but reasonably straight reporting. If you know enough about science, some of those articles are actually quite useful write ups of recent discoveries. So you can’t go as far as to say that if it is in the Daily Mail it’s inaccurate. Some of their science articles are pretty good, as good as articles in any of the mainstream papers. They must have at least one decent science journalist on the team who is able to read the material and understand it and write it up. But there is a fair chance of a science article there being inaccurate or sensationalized or even almost completely made up from nothing or the slenderest of stories. So you can’t rely on their science. For example, they regularly do very inaccurate asteroid impact stories. It’s a bit like the boy who cried wolf, the inaccurate stories make it hard for most readers to pick out what is true and what is not.
You can do it, but you need some way to miss the rocks on the way down. If you are an expert at using a paraglider then it’s possible and it’s been done, first time in 1988 by Jean-Marc Boivin, It ...
(more)You can do it, but you need some way to miss the rocks on the way down. If you are an expert at using a paraglider then it’s possible and it’s been done, first time in 1988 by Jean-Marc Boivin, It can probably be done with a wingsuit too, at least Valery Rozov thinks so, he did a wingsuit jump not from the summit but from 200 meters above the north col. So you can probably do it by wingsuit for the first bit and then parachute to land softly.
So, first, you can use a paraglider, here is Jean-Marc Boivin first to paraglide off Everest in 1988 - he flew down from the summit of Mount Everest and flew down to Camp II at 5,900 meters, so nearly 3000 m below the summit, in 11 minutes.
Then, this is not Everest itself, but from the col connecting it to its northern peak Changtse.
Valery Rozov in 2013, glided with a wingsuit and then parachuting the last bit, this is from Changtse so part of the same massif - it’s on the Chinese / Tibetan side of Mount Everest, connected to it via the north col. It’s 7220m above sea level, the video says he jumped from Everest - strictly speaking it’s from the Everest massif, or part way up the North peak of Everest.
Here is Changtse in relation to Everest
Changtse - Wikipedia - this map is inverted, North is down. He explains that he jumped from 200 meters above the north col towards the Changtse summit, and that he thinks a wingsuit jump from the summit of Everest itself may also be possible for some future adventurer.
He’s also jumped from 7,700m Mount Cho Oy.
It was a net rather than a trampoline. Here is a video - for some reason nobody else seems to have shared it yet.
Details here A skydiver jumped out of a plane 25,000 feet high... without a parachute
(more)It was a net rather than a trampoline. Here is a video - for some reason nobody else seems to have shared it yet.
Details here A skydiver jumped out of a plane 25,000 feet high... without a parachute
You have to
You have to
On the oxygen levels - you could try to make a thinner breathable atmosphere with only 10% oxygen, pure oxygen without the nitrogen, which is simpler but is a fire risk. You can deal with that in spacecraft and spacesuits by making sure there is nothing flammable but how do you make an entire planet non flammable? The thing is that the nitrogen actually acts as a fire retardant by absorbing the heat from the flames, and if you have only oxygen, its no more flammable, but you’ve left out the flame retardant in the atmosphere, so fires start more easily. So that doesn’t seem practical and I haven’t seen anyone suggest we attempt terraforming with a nearly pure oxygen Mars atmosphere.
The Mars society very optimistically suggest that we could get to a planet warm enough for trees with a carbon dioxide atmosphere in 1000 years - and then build up an oxygen atmosphere after that. At that point humans could get around unprotected with air breathers but would need scuba diving style gear with their tanks filled with full atmosphere, not just oxygen, because the carbon dioxide would kill you eventually if you just used an oxygen mask. And there would be no animals or birds at that point (unless you somehow equipped them with scuba gear too!).
It’s a vast mega engineering prospect that has to be sustained for probably at least 100,000 years before it’s habitable at levels similar to Earth, and then sustained indefinitely with hundreds of power stations producing greenhouse gases constantly to keep the planet warm - or planet scale thin film mirrors to warm it up, with comets or other sources of volatiles used to replenish the atmosphere over millions of years.
I can’t see anyone doing this myself, when you think how much you could benefit Earth with a similar amount of mega artchitecture. Certainly at present, I don’t see how anyone could commit to such a project for themselves and their descendants for a thousand years, so over 30 generations. The Mars colonists would not be able to go it alone,, can’t see it working without support from Earth.
Of course that’s based on present day technology. Who knows, with nuclear fusion maybe small scale nuclear fusion, 3D printers that can replicate almost anything, with a magical level of technology as it would seem to us today, it might be possible. But that is so different from what we have today and we can’t even imagine such a future clearly, any attempts are bound to be as far from the mark as early C20 projections of the twentyfirst century. So I don’t think we should colonize Mars setting out on the basis that we know what technology we’ll have even 50 years from now and that we know what our priorities are.
The obvious thing to do instead is paraterraforming. That is, you cover regions with domes to build enclosed cities. But that’s as easily done on the Moon, indeed the lunar caves may form pre-fabricated vast tunnels kilometers in diameter and over hundred kilometers long and it may well have abundant ice and other volatiles at its poles. As well as that, then enthusiasts like Paul Spudis have worked out ways that Lunar colonization could be commercially viable. The bulk of books by Moon colonization advocates consist of discussions of how it can be made commercially viable. While Mars colonization advocates use a very broad brush treatment, saying that somehow it will work, but when pressed for details they come up with unconvincing ideas. Mainly they focus on the idea that the colony would pay for itself by export of intellectual property to Earth. Given that they would have the highest technology colony ever and be dependent on Earth for multi million dollar spacesuits, hundreds of millions of dollars habitats, each needing to be replaced frequently, environment control etc - I can’t see how they would have export of intellectual property to Earth. It would surely be the other way - that they rely on intellectual property exported from Earth for nearly everything they do.
Then - there’s the planetary protection issue. Mars may have present day life there, and may have past life. Even if it has no life, it may have habitats and be the only place in our solar system to find out what a planet like Mars is like whether it has inhabited or uninhabited habitats. If we introduce Earth life there, we may lose this opportunity to make major discoveries about what could easily be one of the more common types of planet in our galaxy. There is no other Mars we can explore if we mess up our Mars in this solar system. And we might if we are lucky find some form of life that’s evolved independently or some very early form of life that is long extinct on Earth.
There are no issues like that with the Moon.
Chris McKay has suggested we could “Marsform Mars” (my own word for what he describes) - turn the clock back on Mars to recreate the conditions that may have existed there billions of years ago. That’s much more feasible, since after all Mars was like that originally. But it’s probably lost a lot of its volatiles since then so it would still involve finding those volatiles somehow. It only seems to have enough CO2 to more or less double its current very thin atmosphere. Still if we found a way to do that, it might be of interest as it would make it marginally more habitable to any native Mars life.
That life might be of great interest to us, it might teach us much about biology, biochemistry, medicine. Not at all guaranteed that we’d be able to cultivate it in vitro, there are many microbes that exist in the wild on Earth that we have not yet, to this day, been able to cultivate in the laboratory. Who knows, it might also have products of great value to Earth, products of the Mars biology.
At any rate, I think we have to study Mars first, before we think of attempting to introduce Earth life there, and indeed also before we attempt to “Marsform it” if that was the decision.
And if we do try to terraform in some way - well - clumsy attempts at introducing Earth life right now could set Mars off in a direction of change that we would later wish to reverse and find we can’t do . It might have many possible end states. How can we hope to direct an entire planet to a desired end state with present day technology? We find it hard enough to so something about carbon dioxide levels at a fraction of a percent on Earth so how could we hope to keep the Mars atmosphere on track if it deviates in some unexpected direction? And even more so, how could we make sure the biology and evolution there goes in a direction that is to our liking? Remember Mars conditions are very different from Earth and microbes can evolve rapidly. Maybe we can learn enough to do this from our experiments with closed system habitats on the Moon or elsewhere, or maybe we make contact with extra terrestrials who advice us from their own experience of attempting something like this.
Elon Musk brushed over all this with CGI showing a planet revolving and turning green as it rotated behind him - but that’s brushing a lot of details under the carpet. I think few of those who are so keen on colonizing Mars have realized quite how different it is from Earth and how much would be involved in terraforming it.
Note also that on Earth also it took hundreds of millions of years to develop to the modern atmosphere. So even if we had an Earth clone, same size, maybe with an early Earth atmosphere not yet habitable to modern Earth life it would be a huge acceleration to make it habitable in as short a time period as 100,000 years.
We have no practical experience of terraforming, and I’m not sure it would even be possible so quickly with an early Earth clone, never mind Mars, and the idea that we could direct it to a desired end state seems ambitious in the extreme. But for Mars the situation is far harder than for an early Earth clone because it is so much further from the Sun, has no magnetic field and the gravity is much less.
We don’t need Mars as a “backup”. Because there is nothing that could make Earth as uninhabitable as Mars would be even after a thousand years of terraforming. It’s clear I think that Earth is where we make our stand as the only easily habitable planet in our solar system for our form of life.
I think we need to move forward with a positive vision for the whole of Earth, not an escape plan to try to get away from it. Humans in space can protect Earth from asteroids, mine rare minerals and metals that are getting in short supply here, move polluting industry into space, and make discoveries that could expand our understanding of our biology and of the universe hugely. We can explore, have destinations for explorers and tourists, there are many things we can do in space. But our best backup is on Earth. The Moon could be useful as a backup of knowledge and a seed library because of the very stable geological conditions there. But for living humans, Earth is the best place for our backup. Earth is its own backup. There’s no disaster, not an asteroid impact, not supernovae, not gamma ray bursts, that could make Earth uninhabitable to humans not in the present day solar system, though there were billions of years ago. Even if 97% of species went extinct, then Earth would still be far more habitable than Mars, amongst the 3% there would be plenty for a versatile tool using omnivore like ourselves to cultivate and life on. We’d surely be amongst that 3%.
But there are no nearby stars that can go supernova (we now know) and we also know all the 10 km or larger asteroids that do regular flybys of Earth and none of them will hit us for several centuries - and only 1 in 147 of flybys at present are by comets, and the only nearby candidate for a gamma ray burst is pointed away from us.
It’s true that 500 million years from now or later, Earth may begin to become uninhabitable to humans. But that’s so far into the future that humans could evolve from the very fist multicellular microscopic life forms a second time. And anyway a temporarily terraformed Mars, even if it worked would probably not last that long, before it needs to be replenished again by comets etc. Maybe Mars will be just what our descendants or whatever species follows us needs when the Sun goes red giant billions of years from now. But it’s far too soon to try terraforming it for that distant species, which might not even be oxygen breathing, and would find our attempt at a terraformed Mars with its atmosphere long gone, all its volatiles lost to space, and harder to terraform than it is for us now. They might also be able to move Earth to a more distant orbit from the Sun or protect it with sun shields, or make asteroids and even planets into a Dyson sphere or who knows what else in that distant future.
Meanwhile if we can develop self sustaining closed ecosystems in space, there’s enough material in the asteroid belt to build space habitats enough to house trillions of people, total surface area (not of the asteroids but of the habitats that could be made of them) a thousand times that of Earth, and far more if we also include materials beyond the orbit of Jupiter, or ideas of using materials from moons and our Moon to make into habitats.
See also my
You can read about it here, an article written soon after his election London mayor: The Sadiq Khan story - BBC News. So - there is an element of truth in what you said - his opponent in the race t...
(more)You can read about it here, an article written soon after his election London mayor: The Sadiq Khan story - BBC News. So - there is an element of truth in what you said - his opponent in the race tried to get elected in a campaign that seemed Islamophobic which probably lost his opponent votes. However he was elected because he was a strong candidate, someone the ordinary Londoner could identify, grew up on a housing estate, son of a bus driver, worked as a lawyer on cases of human rights and discrimination, held many posts in government and was all round a highly qualified candidate for the job. And as a mayor he has shown in many ways that the voters chose well when they elected him and is widely admired internationally for his work as mayor of London.
So first on the campaign and how it probably lost his opponent votes:
“Whoever came up with the approach, Mr Goldsmith's campaign focused heavily on portraying Mr Khan as an associate of "extremists" - which in turn allowed Labour to attack the Conservatives for pursuing "divisive, dog-whistle" tactics.”
“Mr Khan took this to be an attempt to smear him by association because of his religion. The Conservatives insisted they were talking about his brand of left-wing politics - but Mr Goldsmith repeatedly said the Labour candidate had "given platform, oxygen and cover to extremists".”
He was a very capable candidate, trained as a lawyer, who worked on some high profile cases to do with racial discrimination and civil liberties who had won cases at the European Court of Human Rights, the House of Lords and the Court of Appeal as human rights solicitor
He grew up on a council estate in South London, and was the son of a bus driver and married to the daughter of a bus driver, so in a position to emphasize with other Londoners in similar positions.
He had been an MP since 2005, and had several positions including Labour whip, communities minister, and then was appointed to the cabinet as Transport minister. Also shadow political reform minister. He was Ed Milibands’ campaign manager, - when he won the Labour Party leadership campaign. He nominated Jeremy Corbyn as leader though he didn’t vote for him.
So he had a lot going for him, but still was a surprising choice when he came top of Labour’s list of candidates for the mayor. He won the Labour canddiate election convincingly in every round, ending ahead by 58.9% to 41.1% against the second choice, Diane Abbott.
Anyway so the electors warmed to him, with his story of rising to mayoral candidate from son of a bus driver, living on a council estate, and the nasty campaign against him probably helped as well and he won with a convincing majority of 56.8% versus 43.2% in the second round (44.2% versus 35.0%, Green 5.8% in the first round).
His actions as Major since then have helped cement his position - for instance after the recent terrorist attacks and the Grenfel fire he is there on the scene, and often on our TV involved and doing what he can to help. He is obviously hard working, and a highly motivated mayor. He was elected because he was an excellent candidate for the job and in his action since then, he has proved that the Londoners chose well when they elected him. That he is Muslim reflects the cultural diversity of London.
As for that Trump tweet, Trump tweeted
What Mr Khan actually said was that there is no reason to be alarmed by an increased police presence in London (for their safety). He said that the capital “will never let terrorists win”.
Quoting from him:
"There aren't words to describe the grief and anger our city will be feeling today. I'm appalled and furious that these cowardly terrorists would deliberately target innocent Londoners and bystanders enjoying their Saturday night. There can be no justification for the acts of these terrorists, and I'm quite clear that we will never let them win, nor will we allow them to cower our city or Londoners..."
"... Londoners will see an increased police presence today and over the course of the next few days. No reason to be alarmed. One of the things the police and all of us need to do is to make sure we are as safe as we possibly can be. I'm reassured that we are one of the safest global cities in the world, if not the safest global city in the world. But we always evolve and review ways to make sure we can be as safe as we possibly can. "
Trump renews feud with London mayor over terror attack - BBC News
The video itself is here London attack: 'Grief and anger' - Sadiq Khan - BBC News
More videos by him here: Sadiq Khan - BBC News
- Trump got it completely out of context and misunderstood him. Trump's insensitive remark at a time of tragedy lead to new calls here to withdraw his invite to the UK for a state visit. And BTW the police responded within eight minutes - many more would have been killed if they hadn’t shown up so quickly.
This is New York Mayor Bill de Blasio reacting to it, saying that what Sadiq Khan said is exactly what he would say in the same situation and that his actions were exemplary. New York’s Bill de Blasio rises to London mayor’s defence
The US conference of Mayors wrote a letter in support of him writing
“The United States Conference of Mayors stands today united with Mayor Sadiq Khan of London and the people of London
“We send condolences to family and loved ones of those dead and injured.
“We send praise and absolute respect for the police officers who responded with 8 minutes to kill all three of the London Bridge terrorist murderers.
“The Mayors of the USA who haven’t had a terrorist attack know full well that in today’s age of terrorist actions, domestic and international, an attack could happen in their city.
“And the Mayors of the USA whose cities have been hit with an attack of hate and murder have an even more personal feeling for London Mayor Khan. We commend him for his statement today.
“He has risen above this crisis of death and destruction, as mayors continue to do, to alleviate fear, to bring comfort to his people of London and to give support to the first responders who continue to protect, defend and provide emergency care to his people of London.
“Thank you, Mayor Khan, for your leadership during this crisis.”
As for his politics, he speaks up for the socially disadvantaged, the discriminated against of all types, the poor. He speaks for a spirit of unity and not letting the terrorists from ISIS split us from each other.
Here he is leading the vigil in London after the Manchester Love concert: London attack: Vigil held to remember victims - BBC News
With the Grenfell tower block fire, he was amongst the first on the scene, closely followed by Jeremy Corbyn and the newly elected labour MP for Kensington.
Meanwhile the local councilors were nowhere to be seen, remaining in their offices, and Theresa May only visited two days after the disaster and she spoke to the fire officers and didn’t speak to the survivors at all on that day. She returned and spoke to them a day later after she was criticized in the media for not speaking to them - and even then only in carefully controlled situations - in a hospital, in a church behind closed doors, and she invited them to 10 Downing street. There were no videos broadcast of her talking to them AFAIK. Meanwhile our Queen went and spoke to them in person too along with her grandson Prince William in a relief center helping victims of the attack, so the idea that Theresa May didn’t speak to them for security reasons doesn’t make much sense.
So he is someone who “mucks in” and is there on the scene when there is trouble. He is never shy of being there when things get difficult or facing hard questions. The contrast with the “at a distance” approach of the prime minister and councilors in this disaster was striking.
He became a voice for the Grenfell tower community, raising their issues on our TV many times. Sadiq Khan: Grenfell Tower community is frustrated and angry - BBC News
He is one of many who is standing up for the rights of the residents, that they should be rehoused within the area, pressing for support on the scene by people with high visibility jackets (a support center was set up with loads of specialists to help them but it was far from the scene with them sitting at desks waiting for them to come and hardly anyone found it and people with high vis jackets were only on the scene several days after the disaster after many comments in the media about this).
He also says the government needs to be held to account for not acting on warnings about cladding in previous fires, and is asking for transparency in the investigations, and for them to act urgently on the Grenfell fire to make sure other tower blocks are safe, without waiting for the inquiry to finish. For instance, Sadiq Khan urges government to publish list of checked tower blocks
This is part of a general question - there are many constants which have particular and rather strange values. They don’t seem random, nor are they the simplest possible values but rather very comp...
(more)This is part of a general question - there are many constants which have particular and rather strange values. They don’t seem random, nor are they the simplest possible values but rather very complex apparently arbitrary numbers that just happen to make our universe one that can support life. So far nobody has found a way to derive these numbers from first principles. Some of them depend on other numbers but in the end you end up with a bunch of numbers that nobody can explain yet, just have to say “That’s how it is”.
That’s the idea of the Fine-tuned Universe. One theory is that actually there are regions of our universe or other universes with many of the possible laws of physics, but most of them are uninhabitable e.g. don’t have molecules, don’t have stars, the stars are very short lived, the entire universe only lasts for a few seconds and is gone soon after the Big Bang etc - there are numerous ways our universe could be uninhabitable for beings like ourselves. Also there were times in the past when our universe was uninhabitable (soon after the Big Bang for instance) at least for beings like us. Maybe there will be times in the future that it is also, billions of years into the future.
So the idea is that we see one that is habitable because only the ones with laws of physics like this have living beings in them to observe them, and we see it at a time when it is habitable for the same reason. That’s the weak version of the anthropic principle, which is a controversial but respected idea in cosmology, with many variations on it, but it can’t be proved.
The strong anthropic principle is similar but does away with the idea of numerous other universes - but instead that something or other sets up our universe to be habitable. Lots of ideas about how that could happen. Anthropic principle - Wikipedia
They are interesting ideas but there is no way to prove or disprove them at present.
If you go by the sutras, then he entered paranirvana. Some of his remains were kept, as relics. But he said to his followers not to take on anyone else as leader of the community but rather to take...
(more)If you go by the sutras, then he entered paranirvana. Some of his remains were kept, as relics. But he said to his followers not to take on anyone else as leader of the community but rather to take his words themselves, his sutras as their teacher. He had already realized cessation of dukkha as a young man when he entered nirvana, and taught the path through his life for decades. As to what paranirvana is, well he was asked if he exists, doesn’t exist, or both or neither after death and this is how he replied:
Buddha was asked if he holds any of these views:
"...'after death a Tathagata exists'...
"...'after death a Tathagata does not exist'...
"...'after death a Tathagata both exists & does not exist'...
"...'after death a Tathagata neither exists nor does not exist'
To all of those he answered
"Vaccha, the position that ''after death a Tathagata exists' is a thicket of views, a wilderness of views, a contortion of views, a writhing of views, a fetter of views. It is accompanied by suffering, distress, despair, & fever, and it does not lead to disenchantment, dispassion, cessation; to calm, direct knowledge, full Awakening, Unbinding.
He uses the analogy of a fire going out and goes on to say
"Even so, Vaccha, any physical form by which one describing the Tathagata would describe him: That the Tathagata has abandoned, its root destroyed, made like a palmyra stump, deprived of the conditions of development, not destined for future arising. Freed from the classification of form, Vaccha, the Tathagata is deep, boundless, hard to fathom, like the sea. 'Reappears' doesn't apply. 'Does not reappear' doesn't apply. 'Both does & does not reappear' doesn't apply. 'Neither reappears nor does not reappear' doesn't apply.
"Any feeling... Any perception... Any fabrication...
"Any consciousness by which one describing the Tathagata would describe him: That the Tathagata has abandoned, its root destroyed, made like a palmyra stump, deprived of the conditions of development, not destined for future arising. Freed from the classification of consciousness, Vaccha, the Tathagata is deep, boundless, hard to fathom, like the sea. 'Reappears' doesn't apply. 'Does not reappear' doesn't apply. 'Both does & does not reappear' doesn't apply. 'Neither reappears nor does not reappear' doesn't apply."
In another sutra he uses the analogy of someone shot by an arrow when Malunkyaputta came to him and said he wouldn’t live the holy life until he answered questions like this:
"It's just as if a man were wounded with an arrow thickly smeared with poison. His friends & companions, kinsmen & relatives would provide him with a surgeon, and the man would say, 'I won't have this arrow removed until I know whether the man who wounded me was a noble warrior, a brahman, a merchant, or a worker.' He would say, 'I won't have this arrow removed until I know the given name & clan name of the man who wounded me... until I know whether he was tall, medium, or short... until I know whether he was dark, ruddy-brown, or golden-colored... until I know his home village, town, or city... until I know whether the bow with which I was wounded was a long bow or a crossbow... until I know whether the bowstring with which I was wounded was fiber, bamboo threads, sinew, hemp, or bark... until I know whether the shaft with which I was wounded was wild or cultivated... until I know whether the feathers of the shaft with which I was wounded were those of a vulture, a stork, a hawk, a peacock, or another bird... until I know whether the shaft with which I was wounded was bound with the sinew of an ox, a water buffalo, a langur, or a monkey.' He would say, 'I won't have this arrow removed until I know whether the shaft with which I was wounded was that of a common arrow, a curved arrow, a barbed, a calf-toothed, or an oleander arrow.' The man would die and those things would still remain unknown to him.
He ends it by saying.
"So, Malunkyaputta, remember what is undeclared by me as undeclared, and what is declared by me as declared. And what is undeclared by me? 'The cosmos is eternal,' is undeclared by me. 'The cosmos is not eternal,' is undeclared by me. 'The cosmos is finite'... 'The cosmos is infinite'... 'The soul & the body are the same'... 'The soul is one thing and the body another'... 'After death a Tathagata exists'... 'After death a Tathagata does not exist'... 'After death a Tathagata both exists & does not exist'... 'After death a Tathagata neither exists nor does not exist,' is undeclared by me.
"And why are they undeclared by me? Because they are not connected with the goal, are not fundamental to the holy life. They do not lead to disenchantment, dispassion, cessation, calming, direct knowledge, self-awakening, Unbinding. That's why they are undeclared by me.
"And what is declared by me? 'This is stress,' is declared by me. 'This is the origination of stress,' is declared by me. 'This is the cessation of stress,' is declared by me. 'This is the path of practice leading to the cessation of stress,' is declared by me. And why are they declared by me? Because they are connected with the goal, are fundamental to the holy life. They lead to disenchantment, dispassion, cessation, calming, direct knowledge, self-awakening, Unbinding. That's why they are declared by me.
Fast growing trees like ash, poplar, willow etc produce most oxygen - because the amount of oxygen produced depends on the amount of carbon sequestered. Younger trees produce least, and old mature ...
(more)Fast growing trees like ash, poplar, willow etc produce most oxygen - because the amount of oxygen produced depends on the amount of carbon sequestered. Younger trees produce least, and old mature trees produce most per tree per year. This paper has figures for the carbon sequestration rate of various types of tree - produced by the US department of energy.
According to it, a fast growing deciduous tree such as ash, cherry, elm, oak, poplar, sycamore, walnut, willow etc will sequester 2.7 pounds of carbon per year in its first year, increasing to 150.6 pounds (68.3 kilograms) per year at age 59. A fast growing conifer, such as some of the faster growing varieties of pine trees will sequester 1.4 pounds in its first year, increasing to 134.1 pounds (60.1 kilograms) per year age 59.
Deciduous trees also produce more oxygen for their leaves, but the leaves decompose and take that oxygen back from the atmosphere at the end of the year. So these calculations just take account of the net amount of oxygen produced per year.
Generally 50% of the biomass is carbon for dry wood. This study for the UK forestry commision found that measurements for trees vary between 49% and 51% with some indication that 49% is appropriate for deciduous trees and 50% for conifers.
You can estimate the oxygen produced from the carbon sequestered (see page 1 of this article). So, assuming one molecule of O2 is produced for each atom of carbon sequestered, then carbon has atomic weight 12 and oxygen, atomic weight 16, so that would be 32 grams of oxygen produced for every 12 grams of carbon sequestered. So a 59 year old deciduous tree would produce 68.3 *32/12 or 182 kilograms of oxygen per year.
Note, 70 to 80% of our oxygen though comes from algae and the sea. Also have plenty of oxygen in the atmosphere - even if somehow all photosynthetic life was destroyed, and there is no plausible natural or manmade disaster that could do that, it would take thousands of years before the oxygen levels went down, plenty of time for the vegetation to grow back. See my Why Forests are not the "Lungs of the planet"
Young trees, though they may seem to be growing faster, as they get taller quickly, actually produce less oxygen per year than a mature tree. This paper has figures for the carbon sequestration rat...
(more)Young trees, though they may seem to be growing faster, as they get taller quickly, actually produce less oxygen per year than a mature tree. This paper has figures for the carbon sequestration rate of various types of tree - produced by the US department of energy.
According to it, a fast growing deciduous tree such as ash, cherry, elm, oak, poplar, sycamore, walnut, willow etc will sequester 2.7 pounds of carbon per year in its first year, increasing to 150.6 pounds (68.3 kilograms) per year at age 59. A fast growing conifer, such as some of the faster growing varieties of pine trees will sequester 1.4 pounds in its first year, increasing to 134.1 pounds (60.1 kilograms) per year age 59.
Deciduous trees also produce more oxygen for their leaves, but the leaves decompose and take that oxygen back from the atmosphere at the end of the year. So these calculations just take account of the net amount of oxygen produced per year.
Generally 50% of the biomass is carbon for dry wood. This study for the UK forestry commision found that measurements for trees vary between 49% and 51% with some indication that 49% is appropriate for deciduous trees and 50% for conifers.
You can estimate the oxygen produced from the carbon sequestered (see page 1 of this article). So, assuming one molecule of O2 is produced for each atom of carbon sequestered, then carbon has atomic weight 12 and oxygen, atomic weight 16, so that would be 32 grams of oxygen produced for every 12 grams of carbon sequestered. So a 59 year old deciduous tree would produce 68.3 *32/12 or 182 kilograms of oxygen per year.
Note, 70 to 80% of our oxygen though comes from algae and the sea. Also have plenty of oxygen in the atmosphere - even if somehow all photosynthetic life was destroyed, and there is no plausible natural or manmade disaster that could do that, it would take thousands of years before the oxygen levels went down, plenty of time for the vegetation to grow back. See my Why Forests are not the "Lungs of the planet"
They do consume oxygen which they do day and night, but they also produce oxygen through photosynthesis in the daytime. For as long as they are growing, they produce more oxygen than they consume. ...
(more)They do consume oxygen which they do day and night, but they also produce oxygen through photosynthesis in the daytime. For as long as they are growing, they produce more oxygen than they consume. Deciduous trees consume extra carbon dioxide and produce oxygen in spring through to autumn for their leaves, but lose their leaves in winter and when those leaves are decomposed all the oxygen produced is removed from the atmosphere again - but that’s just the oxygen for the leaves. For as long as the trees are growing, they are taking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and producing oxygen.
Young trees, though they may seem to be growing faster, as they get taller quickly, actually produce less oxygen per year than a mature tree. This paper has figures for the carbon sequestration rate of various types of tree - produced by the US department of energy.
According to it, a fast growing deciduous tree such as ash, cherry, elm, oak, poplar, sycamore, walnut, willow etc will sequester 2.7 pounds of carbon per year in its first year, increasing to 150.6 pounds (68.3 kilograms) per year at age 59. A fast growing conifer, such as some of the faster growing varieties of pine trees will sequester 1.4 pounds in its first year, increasing to 134.1 pounds (60.1 kilograms) per year age 59.
Generally 50% of the biomass is carbon for dry wood. This study for the UK forestry commision found that measurements for trees vary between 49% and 51% with some indication that 49% is appropriate for deciduous trees and 50% for conifers.
You can estimate the oxygen produced from the carbon sequestered (see page 1 of this article). So, assuming one molecule of O2 is produced for each atom of carbon sequestered, then carbon has atomic weight 12 and oxygen, atomic weight 16, so that would be 32 grams of oxygen produced for every 12 grams of carbon sequestered. So a 59 year old deciduous tree would produce 68.3 *32/12 or 182 kilograms of oxygen per year.
Note, 70 to 80% of our oxygen though comes from algae and the sea. Also have plenty of oxygen in the atmosphere - even if somehow all photosynthetic life was destroyed, and there is no plausible natural or manmade disaster that could do that, it would take thousands of years before the oxygen levels went down, plenty of time for the vegetation to grow back. See my Why Forests are not the "Lungs of the planet"
Yes it is, if you make it big enough. You could build it at ground level and as it heats up naturally due to the warmth generated in any city, it will float up into the atmosphere. It doesn’t need ...
(more)Yes it is, if you make it big enough. You could build it at ground level and as it heats up naturally due to the warmth generated in any city, it will float up into the atmosphere. It doesn’t need any lifting gas. Make it kilometer scale.
That was the idea for Buckminster Fuller's "cloud nine" was a design for an entire city, one kilometer in diameter, floating in the atmosphere. A sphere as large as that would be so low in mass, if constructed as a tensegrity sphere, relative to the mass of the atmosphere that just a one degree increase in temperature would be enough for it to float.
As a tensegrity sphere it would also be very robust in any weather conditions. There's never been any need to build such a structure, and maybe there never will be, nor did he expect there to be, but it seems generally agreed that the engineering for it is sound. He thought of them only as an "exercise to stimulate imaginative thinking".
So, going on from that, there was a serious proposal in 1980 by doctors Ernst Okress and Robert Brown of the Franklin Institute to build a large platform called STARS, half a mile to a mile in diameter, as an upper atmosphere research station. See Solar Thermal Aerostat Research Station (STARS) and the news story about it in the Washington Post:
"Solar Powered Balloon Station Proposed For the Edge of Space".
For an artist's impression of STARS, see Peter Elson's "Orion Shall Rise" painting, an illustration from Poul Anderson's novel of the same name, Orion Shall Rise, which features the STARS aerostat.
One of the covers of Poul Anderson's "Orion Shall Rise" featuring the STARS aerostat floating at 100,000 feet, which in his novel is an old pre-war relic from our time. Painting by Peter Elson.
This construction would have flown at a height of about 100,000 feet. And it would have been kept aloft only by the heat of the air inside it, like Buckminster Fuller's "cloud nine", not needing hydrogen or helium or any kind of lifting gas
In this paper he discusses temperatures between 27 C and 100 C for the interior, kept that warm basically by the greenhouse effect on a transparent balloon if I understand them right.
This is an extract from my article Can Giant Airships Accelerate To Orbit (JP Aerospace's Idea)?
The same idea has also been proposed in the Venus upper atmosphere. There ordinary air would be a lifting gas a bit like Helium in the denser carbon dioxide gas of the Venus upper atmosphere. Turns out it’s at just the right temperature and pressure for humans. The Russians had ideas to build “cloud colonies” based around these orbital airships.
Russian idea for a cloud colony in the upper atmosphere of Venus, proposed in 1970s
original article (in Russian) - and forum discussion of the article - includes rough translation (I think anyway), probably by non native English speaker.
This illustration is from Aerostatical Manned Platforms in the Venus atmosphere - Technica Molodezhi TM - 9 1971
For more about this, see my Will We Build Colonies That Float Over Venus Like Buckminster Fuller's "Cloud Nine"?
Short summary: Planet X might exist - the first “Planet X” was Pluto. If so it’s a planet way beyond Neptune and is of no threat to Earth. Nibiru is a hoax or a crazy idea which is astronomically impossible.
...
(more)Short summary: Planet X might exist - the first “Planet X” was Pluto. If so it’s a planet way beyond Neptune and is of no threat to Earth. Nibiru is a hoax or a crazy idea which is astronomically impossible.
In detail
Planet X might exist - it’s the idea of a planet that could orbit way beyond Neptune. It’s not a single object. The first “Planet X” was Pluto before they called it “Pluto” and the word is now used by astronomers to refer to any theory for a new planet in our solar system. There “X” stands for “unknown” not for “ten”.
So there are many ideas for planet X - over the years, but nearly all have been disproved. The conspiracy theory websites claim that they are all the same planet which has been monitored by NASA since the 1980s - but they are combining together many ideas, most disproved long ago.
Some haven’t been disproved yet, and the main one remaining, or at least the one that got most publicity, is the so called “planet 9”. It may be the best candidate yet, but it also has not been proven to exist yet. It’s just a hypothesis.
Anyway, all of these are ideas for planets that would orbit way beyond Neptune. They would be of no more danger to Earth than Neptune or Pluto. If any of these planets exist they never come anywhere close to Earth.
The idea of “Nibiru” is an astronomical absurdity. They claim that it crosses the orbits of all four of the gas giants, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune and also Mars and Earth. That’s not a stable orbit. Perhaps there could be something in an orbit like that around the time the Moon formed when the solar system was filled with debris, but it wouldn’t be able to last in that orbit for as long as a million years. So - such an object just can’t exist today. It would have hit the Sun, Jupiter, been ejected from our solar system or hit one of the smaller planets at least 4.5 billion years ago.
I have done many debunking articles to help with this, But this is a good start, if you still have questions about whether it could be real:
And here is a List of the articles in my Debunking Doomsday blog to date
Well on the face of it, it seems implausible, but so many things that are done nowadays seem implausible until you see it actually done. The debunking video I saw was over simplistic and also made ...
(more)Well on the face of it, it seems implausible, but so many things that are done nowadays seem implausible until you see it actually done. The debunking video I saw was over simplistic and also made several mistakes (e.g. saying the ground is only cooler than the air in summer which is false, at a shallow depth, it’s cooler than the air in desert regions every day and warmer at night).
So I’ve searched for something more reliable than that, and it was covered in rather more depth in Popular mechanics here This device may pull water out of thin air, but not as well as we hoped
So - just to summarize what they say, their prototype was able to pull 300 milliliters of water out of the air in an hour in the daytime. They got their 14 liters per day by generalizing from that and scaling up.
But - according to that article anyway, which cites Kenneth Kroenlein who is an expert on thermodynamics - there are two main problems with this
The basic idea seems to work after a fashion.
Also the statistics in the video are misleading because most people who don’t have enough clean water live in places where there is plenty of water in the environment, but the problem is accessing clean water. There may be easier ways to get clean water than extracting it from the air in a situation like that. But they suggest it could potentially be useful in places like Mozambique where the air is high humidity and it’s hard to access clean water, and families have to walk for miles to collect it - but the water might still have to be filtered after collecting it from the air to remove pollutants. The advantage would be that you don’t need the infrastructure to transport the clean water where it is needed..
Another thing they mention there is that people living in deserts are more likely to be in places with low humidity, making the device less useful.
So, just to add to that, there are arid deserts with high humidity air. One example would be the Atacama Desert where fog catching nets are used to collect water for drinking and agriculture. I expect it would work very well there.
So, perhaps it can also be of value in arid places where the air is high humidity like that, but there isn’t quite enough humidity for fog catching?
So, I don’t think it is really a scam, which is what you were asking. But their video seems to be somewhat over stating its value. Will be interesting to see where this project goes.
For more details see: This device may pull water out of thin air, but not as well as we hoped
Well Buddha himself did say he was enlightened of course. But you don’t need to see it all the way to the end goal to see results of following the path. Many of the Buddhist teachings are about pra...
(more)Well Buddha himself did say he was enlightened of course. But you don’t need to see it all the way to the end goal to see results of following the path. Many of the Buddhist teachings are about practical things you can put into place right away and you can judge them by their effects on your life. Buddha taught a path to cessation of dukkha, unsatisfactoriness. He then invited us to follow the same path he did.
So when Buddha became enlightened, according to his life story, he had no proof that enlightenment was possible. He just saw the nature of dukkha, unsatisfactoriness and he was looking for a path to deal with it. He went to the best teachers of his day, and they taught him various ways to calm his mind and to enter refined states of pure bliss with not a trace of suffering or anxiety, at all, and also states even more refined than that. He learnt to use these meditations and then asked his teachers if that was all that they had to teach him, and they said “yes, you’ve realized our teachings”. They also asked him if he’d teach himself or even lead their movement. But having found out what it was they taught from his experience, from putting it into effect, he decided this was not what he was looking for. It was based on conditions and he could see that anything generated based on conditions would be dependent on them and so dukkha.
So - he wasn’t saying there was anything wrong in such practices. Just that it wasn’t what he was looking for. He gave teachings to help pracitioners find happiness in all forms including happiness that’s not lasting, and to be free from suffering temporarily. To find happiness and to be free from suffering temporarily is good!
Dukkha doesn’t mean suffering or even unsatisfactory really, as these states can be highly satisfactory of course. Even worldly pleasures and achievements often are very satisfactory. But he taught that one can come to see that these are not the end of all unsatisfactoriness for all time, so it is still dukkha, conditioned, dependent on conditions and so subject to change and unsatisfactoriness.
So - this much we can all see for ourselves. So on the path, we are following it much as the Buddha did. He had no example to show that Nirvana is possible. We do, with his life story as an example. That shows it - but doesn’t prove that it is possible, either. Just as the Buddha did, followers of the Buddhist path also set out on this process of exploration and discovery, with no guarantees. So it is based on a faith, much as Buddha had, that there is some way to cessation of dukkha.
As for showing results - well when Buddha realized Nirvana he continued as an ordinary person to all appearances; he didn’t suddenly vanish or turn into a celestial being. He said to his followers that he had realized nirvana - yet he got old, he got sick, eventually he died. So if you encounter someone who has realized Nirvana they would be the same as anyone else. The first person Buddha met after he became enlightened didn’t believe him when he said he was enlightened.
So - it’s not so much that there is a prohibition on a Buddha - that they can’t say that they are enlightened - because Buddha did say he was enlightened. It’s rather, that it often doesn’t help. If you meet a Buddha, their only reason for telling you that they are Buddha is if it will help you and others to say so. If not, they won’t, because they don’t have anything to prove to anyone else.
And as for how many are Buddha - well we can’t really say. In some traditions they talk about vast numbers of Buddhas outnumbering those who are still unenlightened. In the Therevadhan traditions, Buddhas enter paranirvana when they die. When asked what that means, Buddha just didn’t answer, saying it was not helpful to answer such questions. He gave no answer to whether a Buddha exists after entering paranirvana or doesn’t, or both, or neither. All that was getting immersed in concepts and a thicket of views.
In the Tibetan and other Mahayana traditions, that’s true of Wheel turning Buddhas (the ones who teach the dharma when there are no teachings of that type available yet, or they have been totally forgotten). But other Buddhas can manifest, take form as various beings, even insects, animals, and inanimate objects too such as rivers, bridges etc.
So, they say that it’s possible to open out to that and to see the world around you as full of messages of enlightenment. And - one way they put it in the Mahayana traditions is that we can only see unenlightened beings. They sometimes say that there are many more Buddhas than there are unenlightened beings. It’s like we are the few remaining unenlightened beings - still vast in number, but few compared to the inconceivably vast numbers of Buddhas. We are the few that haven’t “got it” yet. That can be quite useful if one feels pride as a result of following the Buddhist path, to reflect - that far from being remarkable as a being to have found such a path, that one may be one of the very few (by percentage) who haven’t found it yet, even though our world system is (apparently) full of such beings.
The dust is very fine, about the same consistency as cigarette smoke. It’s a near vacuum but the winds are fast too. The winds would barely stir an autumn leaf on Earth - but they are able to lift ...
(more)The dust is very fine, about the same consistency as cigarette smoke. It’s a near vacuum but the winds are fast too. The winds would barely stir an autumn leaf on Earth - but they are able to lift the dust off the surface.
At their thickest the dust storms can block out 99% of the sunlight.
This shows photographs taken by Opportunity during a dust storm from sols 1205 to 1236 (one month). Each horizon view has been compressed horizontally (but not vertically). By the end of this period it reached a visual optical depth tau 4.7 which means that 99% of the sunlight was blocked. However that is for direct light. Of course the dust will also scatter a lot of light, and if you include ambient as well as direct light then the figures are not quite so extreme.
The dust particles in dust storms range from less than a micron to 50 microns in diameter.
Even so, it’s quite a challenge to explain how they form and how the dust dunes move and there are many papers on the topic. Another factor is the low Martian gravity. The larger grains can move great distances via “saltation” where the dust grain doesn’t quite get into the atmosphere, but does a series of large hops The sand dunes on Mars, rather surprisingly, move at about the same speed they do on Earth even with the very thin atmosphere.
This striking image from Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter shows quite how much sand movement you can get on Mars. In places, sand dunes as high as 200 feet (61 meters) are moving over the surface of Mars - a surprising result with its thin atmosphere (but strong winds and months long dust storms sometimes).
Meanwhile finer dust rises to many kilometers in the atmosphere. This shows dust that rises in a dust devil.
The same also happens during dust storms, and it can take months for all the dust to settle after a global dust storm.
Another puzzle is about how and why the dust storms spread to cover the whole of Mars. This happens only a few times a decade.
Then from time to time dust storms will cover the entire planet, with wind speeds of 10 to 30 meters per second (22 to 67 miles per hour) average for the faster winds during a dust storm.
Global Mars dust storm from 2001 Mars has local storms every two years, and from time to time it has larger global storms. The first global storm recorded is from 1873: the other ones reported were in 1909, 1924, 1956, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1977 (2 storms), 1982, and more recently in 1994, 2001 and 2007. So we get a global dust storm roughly every decade or so, though sometimes several per decade (five storms in the 1970s).
The global dust storms normally start in the Hellas basin in the southern spring or summer (the Martian year is two Earth years so that means every two years). But not every time for some reason.
The oval patch of dust in the leftmost of this time series of photographs is over Hellas basin.
However there is progress. This is one model from 2006 which was able to simulate global dust storms on Mars. They find that as the dry ice in the southern hemisphere evaporates in the southern spring and summer, it causes large wind systems especially on the slopes of the Hellas Basin which is close to the southern polar cap on Mars, and various other effects. The dust lifted in the storms itself affects the weather and once you have a large enough dust storm, the winds increase and more dust gets caught up until it envelopes the whole planet.
This answer uses extracts from my kindle booklet OK to Touch Mars? Europa? Enceladus? Or a Tale of Missteps? - the dust storms are particularly important for planetary protection - if microbes can get imbedded in a particle of dust, the storms could take them rather rapidly almost anywhere on Mars.
Actually North Korea has signed the outer Space Treaty but not ratified it. There is some principle in law that if a treaty has been ratified by enough countries it actually is in force to some ext...
(more)Actually North Korea has signed the outer Space Treaty but not ratified it. There is some principle in law that if a treaty has been ratified by enough countries it actually is in force to some extent even for the countries that haven’t ratified it. by the Vienna Convention on the law of treaties.
I’m not a space lawyer so just to say - if you want to understand the legal issues here in detail you’ll need to ask a space lawyer, but this may help give a first idea of them - and I think the way I can help most is by drawing out the larger scale implications and the things we need to think about not just now but into the longer term future years and decades from now.
PROHIBITED FROM ACTIONS THAT GO AGAINST THE “OBJECT AND PURPOSE” OF THE OST EVEN IF THEY DON’T RATIFY IT
At this point it gets very complicated. If they have signed and not ratified, or even if they haven’t signed at all - and if enough nations have signed, then they are prohibited from actions that defeat the “object and purpose” of the Treaty.
This is by the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties. So there are obligations - but what they are is less clear. Space lawyers I’m sure will argue endlessly about this, what the obligations are. What counts as “going against the object and purpose” of the OST? It’s a little vague, enough for endless legal discussion of what it really means in this case.
NOT A MAJOR ISSUE AT PRESENT — HOW COULD NORTH KOREA GO AGAINST THE OST ANYWAY AT PRESENT?
But right now it’s not a major issue because North Korea isn’t really able to do much that would go against the OST. I suppose the main near term thing it could do is to put weapons of mass destruction in orbit, but it only has the capability to send small satellites into orbit at present, and it probably can’t miniaturize its nuclear weapons enough to fit them into a ballistic missile so can’t put them into orbit. It’s not suggested it wants to do anything like that.
Also it can’t send spacecraft to another planet yet so don’t really see how planetary protection would apply, nor is it in a position to try to set up a military base on another celestial body or to claim the Moon or some other celestial object or region on it for itself.
Also, there’s no way that e.g. SpaceX could try to launch from North Korea as a way to escape from the OST - which of course is deeply implausible anyway - but nor could it launch from a sea platform or another non ratifying signatory like the UAE. The problem is that SpaceX uses technology developed in the US, and employs US citizens. To get around the OST they would need to renounce their US citizenship - and also develop their own new technology not governed by US laws - because the US has an obligation under the OST to make sure its citizens abide by the OST, and also have responsibility to how their technology is used too, at least, so long as it counts as participating in the project by supplying its technology to facilitate getting them into space.
It doesn’t matter how they get into space according to those obligations - just like the way you are still subject to laws on quarantine no matter whether you move your pet dog from one country to another in a private jet or yacht or use public transport or how you do it.
I don’t know what we would do if some space faring nation were to do something against the OST and didn’t sign it, by way of actually enforcing it. I think this is one reason for proceeding with some caution when it comes to opening up outer space - it’s going to get easier and easier to get into orbit and to visit other places like the Moon, Mars etc.
WHY WE DON’T WANT A “WILD WEST” IN SPACE
Some space enthusiasts seem to like the idea of a “Wild West” out there with no rules. But stop and think about it. Do you want North Korea and other places like that to be able to send humans and spacecraft into space with no rules governing what they can do there?
We need rules in space even more so than on Earth I think, because of the powerful space technology we will have in space. Also because we will be able to do things there that we can’t do on Earth, new things that may be of great potential benefit to Earth, but they may be things that could harm us too. So many space “cadets” as it were approach this with rosy spectacles. They seem to think that we don’t need any rules because the people who go into space will either just be good people, or that for some reason they won’t need laws. But there’s a reason for those laws. I think that it’s quite an accomplishment to have the Outer Space Treaty, and that it is actually more flexible than one might think, in how it works. Space lawyers have worked out various ideas for forms of “ownership” of mines in space compatible with the treaty - though it would need a lot of work to get those hammered out into international agreements. But far far easier than trying to get something like the OST worked out from scratch - look what happened to the Moon treaty?
ARE WE EVEN BOUND TO THE “OBJECT AND PURPOSE” OF THE MOON TREATY?
Actually I’ve heard space lawyers argue that enough nations have signed the Moon treaty so that at present, it could be treated as giving the best interpretation of the OST, as there is no conflicting treaty - so other nations may be bound by it at present to some extent by the Vienna convention on the Law of Treaties. It has few ratifications (though one is the Netherlands which is relevant for “Mars One”). But there is nobody who has disputed it either.
But that’s much more controversial than the idea that they are bound by the OST. Is there any obligation to the “common heritage of mankind” provisions in the Moon treaty? I think the prevailing opinion is that there isn’t much of an obligation to that even though the Moon treaty has this provision and has been signed by enough nations to be regarded as an international treaty under the Vienna convention.
WHAT CAN ONE DO PHYSICALLY IF A NATION ACTS AGAINST THE OST?
As to what one could do physically - well I don’t think it has ever arisen, the idea of a country launching a satellite that goes against the OST. I suppose you could use an ASAT weapon to destroy it - but you wouldn’t want to cause a debris cloud, so they might use a more subtle approach - maybe the US or Russia or China could send up a spacecraft to damage it to the extent that it is useless? As it gets easier to get into space that might get harder to enforce. But at present anyway that’s for the future, and the easiest future would be if like some other agreements, like agreements on the Ozone hole, or the Antarctic treaty, it is something that most nations just accept as common sense, and nobody is interested in finding ways around it, not at least of the ones with the technology to let them do so. Then we can build within it. I think we have to see how it goes.
IDEA THAT IT’S BETTER TO SEND ONLY THOUSANDS RATHER THAN MILLIONS OF HUMANS INTO SPACE IN THE NEAR FUTURE
I think it rather depends on how rapidly we “expand into space” and it’s one reason why I think there’s no rush to send huge numbers of humans into space. If we have only thousands or tens of thousands of us in space it’s probably not going to be such a huge problem. But if we rapidly achieve cities of millions somehow in space within a few decades, that’s a level of technology where it would probably be easy for the likes of North Korea to find a way to get thousands of people into space in one way or another - and would our laws, treaties, conventions and ability to enforce treaties be able to keep up with the consequences?
If we have our focus instead on sending dozens, up to thousands of humans into space, and the focus on doing it to help Earth - scientific research, research into closed system habitats in space etc, asteroid detection and deflection, asteroid mining etc, tourism, exploration - things like that - then that’s a much healthier approach I think. Apart also from being more practical and having an immediate financial and other benefit to Earth.
We could perhaps have millions in space for short holidays - a few thousand at a time hopping over to the Moon for a weekend :). That wouldn’t stress the OST too much.
NOWHERE IN SPACE HABITABLE ENOUGH FOR MAJOR CONFLICT WITH OST - NOT WITHOUT SCI FI “MAGICAL” FUTURE TECH
Plus there is nowhere in space that is so habitable that it makes a lot of sense to treat it as a place to colonize. Not until we develop the ability to have closed system habitats that can house thousands with almost no imports or exports. That’s taken as the norm for future space colonies - that they have their own self contained habitats. But few stop to realize that we have not achieved this at present, and what an extraordinary advance over current technology that future would be.
If we had such technology, you could set up a city in the middle of any desert on Earth, using much simpler technology than we’d use in space, and it also would be self sufficient, providing all its own food, and most of its own machinery and repairs (with the magical “3D printers” of future space colony ideas). Now maybe we will have such technology in the future. But we don’t yet.
If some time in the future we do have this technology, it won’t just revolutionize space colonization. It will also revolutionize life on Earth making almost any part of Earth, no matter how inhospitable, easily habitable to humans. Earth would then be able to sustain a population of trillions probably, and what’s more, do it with almost no impact on its own native ecosystems. That would be an astonishing future, but we are nowhere near it yet.
WHAT WE CAN DO - EXPENSIVE CLOSED SYSTEM HABITATS
Now we do have something we can do in the near future. Though we haven’t yet demonstrated it in space, we may be able to create enclosed self contained habitats in space that provide all their own food and oxygen, with experiments in Russia the closest to it - the BIOS-3 experiments suggesting that 30 square meters per person would produce nearly all their food and oxygen. But that’s not even half of what we need. It’s only a small fraction of what is needed for space colonization. That’s because the “self sufficiency” there hasn’t taken account of the huge cost of the equipment itself, the habitats, the rockets to get it all there and resupply after equipment failure etc.
It’s worth doing because of the vast expense of sending provisions and water to space habitats. The recycling equipment can pay for itself over timescales of years, even for nearly complete recycling - but only because the cost is so vast to send provisions there to resupply them.
NOT WORTH IT FOR ORDINARY FOLK WHO JUST HAVE THE PRICE OF A TICKET FROM SELLING THEIR HOUSE
It wouldn’t actually make much sense to use that technology as a method of colonization in space at present I think. It makes a lot of sense for a way to explore - but the idea that you sell your house to buy a ticket into space and then when you get there, somehow you just dig in and by working hard colonize the place?
This is where the analogy with colonization of N. America breaks down. North America was already very habitable, indeed inhabited. Air to breathe - not a problem. Food, and other natural resources. No need for 3D printers. It was such a different situation from colonizing space that I don’t think the analogy actulaly helps much.
Your spacesuit itself would cost millions of dollars and probably need to be replaced after every few dozen EVAs, your “house” would cost probably hundreds of million dollars and need to be replaced every few decades. You’ve sold your house, got into space on Mars or the Moon or wherever it is - but who is going to pay for your spacesuits, habitats, environment control, and all the other high tech machinery you need just to be able to breathe? Not the people who you paid to transport you there - that makes no economic sense that you pay them the price of a house on Earth and in return they not only transport you to somewhere in space but provide you with far more expensive habitats and spacesuits with even the space suit more than an order of magnitude more expensive than your former house and needing to be replaced every few dozen EVAs. You would need very valuable exports to make economic sense of living in space as a way to colonize. That’s at present.
WHO KNOWS IN THAT MAGICAL FUTURE?
In the future with those “magical” 3D printers able to “print out” multi million dollar spacesuits and other high tech gear when fed nothing but sand and other raw ingredients, who knows! It’s just that we shouldn’t count on them yet, I don’t think it makes sense to try to colonize space on the assumption that soon after you start the process someone will invent all the technology needed to make it economic to do so. It’s too likely to become a “black hole” of an endless trillions of dollars per decade commitment to support just a few dozen people in space. If we found something valuable enough that gave us economic reason to build a big Stanford Torus or to make a lunar cave liveable or some such - maybe it would then have low enough maintenance cost per capita to maintain it once built - but there’s still the question - how do you pay for it? Remember that you have to compete with others who may mine the same resources using robots with no or hardly any humans there - so can you make the mining with humans so much more economic than mining with robots, to make it possible to build huge habitats in space for the human space miners?
WHAT COULD WE DO?
I can however see building of space habitats for tourists, space hotels, retirement homes for billionaires, and science research stations like the ones in Antarctica. Basically something like the research stations in Antarctica built in space, and the tourist trips to Antarctica and the expeditions by explorers to Antarctica.
If it’s like that for the next few decades, then there probably won’t be that much that actually challenges the OST in a significant way so long as we can find a way to do space mining consistent with it - and that I think is possible with enough good will amongst the signatories of the treaties. It will need clever space lawyers and a lot of discussion. Especially about this part of the treaty:
“The exploration and use of outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, shall be carried out for the benefit and in the interests of all countries, irrespective of their degree of economic or scientific development, and shall be the province of all mankind.”
There’s a lot of discussion and varied ideas about what that means, and we need to get that sorted out. Not by editing the Outer Space treaty - that’s not possible with so many signatories. But adding other layers on top of it by way of interpretation and other conventions and agreements.
See also my books on kindle and online:
Well, it’s complicated. But actually, it might surprise you, our treasury earns money from the Crown estates rather than the other way around. It pays for our Queens’ stipend many times over. It pa...
(more)Well, it’s complicated. But actually, it might surprise you, our treasury earns money from the Crown estates rather than the other way around. It pays for our Queens’ stipend many times over. It pays for nearly all the security expenses and royal visits too. She doesn’t actually own Buckingham Palace
Buckingham palace from the air (C) Thomas Nugent - not actually owned by our Queen, she just lives there (sometimes)
And look at the expenses for the US president? And the costs of the US election campaign every four years? The 2016 election cost an estimated $6.8 billion according to one estimate. So that’s the equivalent of more than $1.5 billion a year which has to come somehow from the US tax payers, as gifts, donations etc. Election 2016's price tag: $6.8 billion
And the White House? See How Much It Costs to Keep the White House Looking Great - but that’s not including costs such as security, which under President Obama were approximately $1.4 billion a year.
Airforce One costs a little over half a billion a year.
Here in the UK election expenses are capped, so we don’t have much to pay for those. The Prime Minister doesn’t have the same frills and trappings of power as a president, doesn’t fly around in a private jet. The Queen has a fair bit of trappings - but many of those trappings, the robes, jewelry, paintings etc - if not used for her, they’d be in a museum perhaps. She used to have a huge private yacht, HMY Britannia, but it is now a public attraction in Leith. We could make a lot of money by selling all the artworks and treasures in all our museums. South America had vast amounts of gold in the form of artifacts which are now all melted down and stored as gold ingots in the vaults of various countries. Is it better that way?
So - she cost us £43 million last year, and will cost us around £45.6 million next year in the Sovereign grant. That’s the cost for her and her family, which is a lot more than Holland’s £31 million a year, the next most expensive of the European monarchs. But it costs much less than the Élysée presidential palace in France, which costs £103.5m a year. See The Queen is the most expensive monarch in Europe
The cost of the royal family, as for the president, has many other elements, including security, paid by the Metropolitan Police, royal visits paid by local councils, etc comes to £334 million. See How much does the UK royal family cost?
And Buckingham Palace and the grounds and other parts of the Crown Estate are just occupied by the royal family. To explain the distinction - if any of that property was sold, the proceeds would go to the government not the Queen. So she doesn’t really own them in the normal sense.
If you include all that they seem like billionaires, but actually the Queen just owns Balmoral Castle and Sandringham House. The rest belongs to the Crown estate.
In 2016 the Crown estate was valued at 12 billion and earned £304.1 million, all of which went to the treasury - in other words, to the Government. The Sovereign Grant is paid out of that, so it’s just a fraction of it. Even when you include all the extra costs in that £334 million figure, it still means she is costing the tax payer only £30 million a year including security, costs of royal visits, etc.
More precisely, the Crown Estate are neither government property nor the monarch’s private property. See this FAQ - Who owns the Crown Estate?
“The Crown Estate belongs to the reigning monarch 'in right of The Crown', that is, it is owned by the monarch for the duration of their reign, by virtue of their accession to the throne. But it is not the private property of the monarch - it cannot be sold by the monarch, nor do revenues from it belong to the monarch.”
“The Government also does not own The Crown Estate. It is managed by an independent organisation - established by statute - headed by a Board (also known as The Crown Estate Commissioners), and the surplus revenue from the estate is paid each year to the Treasury for the benefit of the nation's finances.”
She also is independently wealthy, about £340 million estimated, from which she has an independent income, not included in those calculations. That means she is a multimillionaire for sure, but she no longer features in the list of the 300 richest people in the UK. She also owns the Duchy of Lancaster which is held in trust, with income of about £12.5 million a year - which is called the “Privy Purse”. (See again How much does the UK royal family cost? )
One way or another, you are going to have someone with the trappings of wealth because we seem to need that, or at least most countries do.
In the UK we manage it by having a symbolic head who has a lot of the trappings of wealth but no actual political power, who is required to keep neutral in all political decisions. The Queen by convention never makes any political decisions. This then takes away the need to provide similar trappings for the PM who lives in a much more modest house, 10 Downing street, actually a very large terraced house.
There are some who think we’d be better off without a Queen. Jeremy Corbyn is one of them. But he has also said clearly that abolishing the monarchy is not on his agenda. As he put it in the leadership debate: “It is not on anyone else’s agenda, it’s not on my agenda, and I tell you what, I had a very nice chat with the Queen”.
Most of us think we are better with a monarch. Scotland would continue to have the Queen as monarch after independence. It’s a strange system in a way, but it works. Most people here support it. There are some who have similar views to Jeremy Corbyn, but nobody has abolishing the monarchy seriously on their agenda.
Well I’m going to agree with you. That’s precisely my point too, which I’ve been arguing for some years now and also written up in several kindle books. In many discussions, I’ve never had a satisf...
(more)Well I’m going to agree with you. That’s precisely my point too, which I’ve been arguing for some years now and also written up in several kindle books. In many discussions, I’ve never had a satisfactory answer. Nor have I seen anything in the books or papers that is a satisfactory answer.
Also - why rebuild civilization on Mars? That’s like - suppose something devastating happens on Earth, say mass famine, illness or whatever. So you decide to rebuild civilization in Antarctica or on the sea floor!
(I’ve got lots of detail to follow up more in the books, see the end of this answer, so won’t provide links here. This is like a summary of some of the ideas).
Mars is far more uninhabitable than either of those places, it’s like living on a desert raised to a height of 30 km several times the height of Everest, so high that you need a full body pressurized spacesuit to survive - and even that would be far more habitable than Mars.
Surely we’d rebuild in places with abundant water, not too hot and not too cold, with air to breathe just available by opening a window, protection from solar storms and cosmic radiation, no need to hold in the atmosphere against an outwards pressure of tons per square meter against a vacuum. In other words, exactly the same places we are living now. We evolved here and Earth is ideal for us and there is nowhere in the solar system that’s remotely as ideal as a place for humans to live as Earth.
If anything went wrong, well the Mars colony, dependent on technology more than anyone else would be first to fail. If it is some issue caused by technology - well again as our most high tech society, it would be as likely to start in their colony as anywhere else. Then there’s the risk of life native to Mars returned to Earth - probably just microbes but you can’t show that microbes with a different biology would be safe to return to Earth.
The idea that a Mars colony is safer than an Earth colony because of natural quarantine doesn’t work - because it’s easy to set up a quarantine on Earth if that’s what is needed. Okay it would take six months to get to Mars right now, but as transport improves, it will probably get down to weeks and even days. There are ideas on the drawing board that could make it much faster to get there from Earth.
Terraforming is not practical - lots to go wrong, it would take a thousand years to end up with a planet which would just about reach the stage where trees can grow there - but no animals or birds or insects - and humans able to go around with just air breathers - but with a scuba diving type oxygen nitrogen closed system as the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would be toxic to us (it is poisonous to humans above 1% which is not that high a concentration).
But that is very optimistic. It probably doesn’t have enough carbon dioxide to do that according to latest estimates of its dry ice reserves. And if it can “terraform” as quickly as that - well probably it can unterraform quickly too. On Earth it took millions of years, and Mars is so different from Earth that even if we could magically transport the Earth’s atmosphere to Mars, it would be too cold for trees to grow there, because it is so far away. So even if you had a thick atmosphere, you need greenhouse gases - not just a bit, but cubic kilometers mined a century - or orbital thin film mirrors similar in size to the planet, to keep it warm enough to be habitable. Indeed it’s rather a mystery, how Mars could have been warm enough for lakes and seas in the past. Perhaps methane, sulfur dioxide, and other natural greenhouse gases were involved, or maybe the lakes and seas were liquid at times when its orbits were more eccentric so that it gets briefly close to the sun every two years.
Maybe some time we can do megascale planetary engineering with those vast mirrors or the hundreds of nuclear power stations and vast mining plants on Mars to produce greenhouse gases - and redirect comets in vast numbers to impact on Mars to create an atmosphere and deliver water to the planet - the authors of the papers on Mars terraforming suggest we could do it, rather optimistically. But if we could do that, why would we build such megastructures to try to terraform Mars?
If we can do huge construction projects like that, why not use them to bring low cost abundant solar power to Earth, or to build free floating space habitats anywhere in the solar system kilometer scale, spinning for artificial gravity and designed for an ideal climate inside (whatever you like, tropical, temperate etc)? Or why not make the lunar caves habitable (they may be kilometers in diameter)?
And in a future where we can make planet sized mirrors to warm up Mars and redirect all those comets, we surely know the position of every rock down to sub meter scale in the entire inner solar system and larger ones right out to Pluto - we won’t be at any danger from asteroid or comet impacts by then.
And anyway - there are no natural disasters that can make us all extinct. We’d survive even a giant asteroid impact of 10 kilometers in diameter or larger - a versatile tool using omnivore like ourselves, there’d be millions of survivors at minimum. But we already know of all the 10 km plus asteroids that do regular flybys of Earth and none hit us in the next few centuries, and comets that size are too rare to consider at present, at least going by the ratio of comets to asteroids in the objects that fly past Earth (less than a 1 in 100 million chance of one of those per century). Supernovae and gamma ray bursts seemed plausible until a decade or two ago, but now we know our neighbourhood out to hundreds of light years, detect even objects as faint as isolated brown dwarfs out to more than ten light years.
It’s just no longer possible that there’s a potential supernova so close as to be devastating. We know of many potential nearby supernovae that should explode over the next few million years, but they are all far too far away to be of concern. Also, the only known potential gamma ray burst that is close enough to be of concern, as it turns out, is tilted tens of degrees away from us and is also rather distant. Plus there is now a lot of skepticism about whether gamma ray bursts can cause mass extinctions. And again none of these would be devastating to the planet to the extent they could make a versatile tool using omnivore like ourselves extinct.
If you find this unconvincing - you have to compare having a colony on Mars with a backup colony on Earth, not with having no backup. Earth’s population is its own backup because the Earth is so vast and there is no disaster that could affect the entire Earth. If you think a backup is needed, it’s far far easier to build it on Earth. Now if our solar system was in the galactic core and regularly hit by other planets and stars, then it would be different. But there is no possible event that could make Earth uninhabitable to humans, or remotely as uninhabitable as Mars. So if anything happens, the place to rebuild is always going to be Earth.
Now, if you are a science fiction writer and you can load the dice and set up a scenario precisely as you like to further the plot, you can probably make up a scenario where it helps to have humans on Mars.
But for each sci. fi. scenario you could invent where Mars “saves the day”, there are probably several other sci. fi. scenarios where humans on Mars are actually the original cause for disaster on Earth. E.g. wars between space colonists and Earth - or else, things like they develop self replicating nanomachines and let them loose on Earth (many decades into the future I think but might some day be possible).
So - my answer is just that they rely on fantasy as far as I can tell. They have artist’s impressions of people zooming around on Mars in futuristic vehicles, with an Earth like landscape, and say “look we could do this!”. But none of this is remotely practical, not for our current technology.
Maybe it could be done over a period of thousands of years, but then again maybe not, or not with our present technology. It is just so beyond anything we have ever done or had any experience of. Perhaps after first building colonies in lunar caves, and building solar satellites to beam back terrawats of power back to Earth - and mining the asteroids and the Moon - and with lots of experience of doing closed system habitats in space - perhaps after all that we will know enough to look into whether it is possible or not.
Right now, it’s just an idea. I’m all for people writing articles and papers and studies on “terraforming” Mars. But we haven’t yet built our first off-world self contained colony growing all its own food. We could do that either in orbit or on the Moon. Before we do that, it is just way premature even to think about it.
And - no, I don’t think this will add anything to our security. The Earth is where we make our stand, whether you like it or not. Earth is still very habitable. There is nothing we know of that could make it anything like as uninhabitable as Mars. We’d have to get rid of not only all the oceans somehow, and most of the air but also just about all the ice at the poles too, move it out to the orbit of Mars, stop its magnetic field somehow, reduce it’s mass to a fraction of what it was, and it would then begin to be as uninhabitable as Mars. That just ain’t going to happen, we do have rather awesome power compared to our ancestors, but we don’t have those abilities.
Now we can do lots of useful things in space. I think mining in space from asteroids or the Moon could well be useful, seems to work in theory though not yet proven in practice of course. I think humans in space are a natural thing to explore, but in an open ended way - if we have humans in closed system habitats then they only need to be resupplied every few years which would reduce the cost of space exploration hugely. But we can do all that on the Moon as the far more natural place to do it.
Meanwhile our focus has to be on helping Earth. Any idea we can “run away from Earth to a new planet” is just fantasy and won’t solve our problems here or give us more security. Rather, if it is done in that spirit it’s just going to distract from the real issues we can deal with. But humans in space done with Earth as priority, knowledge, resources, and so on - that could be very beneficial to us. And we could do a “backup” on the Moon - the most stable place nearby, build underground seed bank and knowledge library which would still be there millions of years into the future. Even build it so it can be interrogated from Earth via radio to help any future civilizations that have forgotten space technology and can’t yet visit the Moon in person.
Maybe Mars will prove to be of value at some point for humans. But right now I think it is of far more interest as a place for scientific study. Not even mining, we know of nothing valuable enough to mine on Mars to return to Earth. And it’s of most interest for the discoveries we might make about exobiology. Either it has life or had life, or it didn’t. Either way we can learn a huge amount about a type of planet that may be very common in our galaxy. Commonplace though it may be - still - this is the only Mars like planet in our solar system. I think our first priority is to not introduce Earth microbes to it, until we are able to study it carefully either from orbit around Mars or from Earth. We don’t know what the effect would be of introducing new life to another planet, and especially a crash of a human occupied spaceship on Mars would be pretty much an immediate end of all our current efforts to protect it from Earth life.
See also my books on kindle and online:
Just to say we don’t know what Gandalf’s plan was - as it is never explained. He would not have sent them via Cirith Ungol, with the watchers and the giant spider, and going past Minas Morgul - as ...
(more)Just to say we don’t know what Gandalf’s plan was - as it is never explained. He would not have sent them via Cirith Ungol, with the watchers and the giant spider, and going past Minas Morgul - as he reacted to that news with horror.
Gandalf put his hand on Pippin’s head. ‘There never was much hope,’ he answered. ‘Just a fool’s hope, as I have been told. And when I heard of Cirith Ungol——’ He broke off and strode to the window, as if his eyes could pierce the night in the East. ‘Cirith Ungol!’ he muttered. ‘Why that way, I wonder?’ He turned. ‘Just now, Pippin, my heart almost failed me, hearing that name. ...
Note Cirith Ungol means “spider’s cleft” in Sindarin
The hobbits only got through as a result of a huge amount of luck, several different things breaking in their favour, many of them as a result of distractions raised by Gandalf in distant places drawing the attention of the enemy away from them. So in this alternative future if Gandalf was with them, they couldn’t rely on any of that.
Surely not through the front gate? Going around by the South was too far. So did he know of another way through the mountains? Geologically it would be unusual to have such a long range of mountains with no other way through, especially for the likes of the hobbits on foot, able to scramble and with a rope. Especially since the mountains are also not that tall, Alpine maybe but not Himalayan. It’s possible - but they already have two passes through them, might they have more? Places not well guarded because only one or two people could get through at a time?
After all they had already shown their ability to get down a cliff with a rope, although with considerable difficulty. Gollum could do rock climbing easily. So they wouldn’t really need a well maintained path with stairs all the way up the mountains to a pass and down the other side. But Tolkien’s mythological geology doesn’t need to work exactly like Earth geology. Perhaps his mountains really are impassable over long distances like that?
Perhaps he didn’t have a detailed plan?
'We have not decided our course,' said Aragorn. 'Beyond Lothlorien I do not know what Gandalf intended to do. Indeed I do not think that even he had any clear purpose.'
And
‘Well, Frodo,’ said Aragorn at last. ‘I fear that the burden is laid upon you. You are the Bearer appointed by the Council. Your own way you alone can choose. In this matter I cannot advise you. I am not Gandalf, and though I have tried to bear his part, I do not know what design or hope he had for this hour, if indeed he had any. Most likely it seems that if he were here now the choice would still wait on you. Such is your fate.’
Or it might be, he had a plan that he didn’t share with Aragorn. Or he hoped to find out more on this way from Galadriel and his own observations that could lead to a plan.
Also Elrond seems to have foreseen that the Hobbits would be the ones to find a way:
“I think that this task is appointed for you, Frodo; and that if you do not find a way, no one will. This is the hour of the Shire-folk, when they arise from their quiet fields to shake the towers and counsels of the Great. Who of all the Wise could have foreseen it? Or, if they are wise, why should they expect to know it, until the hour has struck?”
He says “that if you do not find a way” not “that if you don’t make it”. It rather suggests that they could find their way in by themselves.
Would Gandalf have said “Okay this is as far as I can take you, my presence will alert the enemy and you have to continue by yourself?”. Or is that reading too much into that?
We have to remember that Tolkien is the master of the “flawed narrator”. So Aragorn saying that Gandalf had no plan doesn’t mean that in actuality he had no plan. Even Elrond wasn’t privy to what Gandalf actually planned, so we can’t really use Elrond’s advice either to deduce as a certainty that the hobbit’s would need to find their way. That’s just Elrond giving his advice based on many thousands of years of experience. He doesn’t claim to be able to foretell the future.
Anyway we know that Boromir would have gone to Gondor and so probably the Fellowship would have split up at around the point they did. Maybe Gandalf alone would have gone with the hobbits? Maybe with Aragorn. Maybe he would have left Aragorn and the hobbits to continue alone into Mordor?
Maybe his despair about them going through Cirith Ungol is because he wasn’t there. But he reacts as if they had some other choice not mentioned, saying “Why that way, I wonder?”. He couldn’t possibly be thinking of the Morannon as another way, the front gate of Mordor. So what other way?
You can also approach this as a story rather than as a fictional world. If Tolkien hadn’t come up with the idea of Gandalf getting lost in Moria and the party splitting and death of Boromir, what else might he have done? Tolkien talks about how he doesn’t know where the story is going. When it started in Hobbiton then in his early drafts Gandalf appears, with a cold, in place of the black riders - and his sniffle eventually gets rewritten as the black riders. He didn’t predict Balin’s tomb in Moria until the narrative got there, and then he stopped, stuck, not knowing how the story would continue, and in some grief himself for the loss of the fictional character. So when he wrote Elrond’s speech, perhaps he didn’t know himself how the hobbits would get into Mordor? So the uncertainty there, though put into the words of Elrond, may also be his own narrative uncertainty - that he felt that somehow the hobbits would find a way but he didn’t know how.
If so - maybe in that alternative narrative path, they’d have found another pass that wasn’t quite as impossible as Cirith Ungol, appropriate to a direct attack on an undistracted Sauron who was looking out for them?
I don’t think he’d have used the eagles. He’d done that already in the hobbit and it would have been a weak finish to the story. The objection of Sauron’s fell riders of the air, that they made Mordor a “no fly” region for the eagles while he was at the height of his power - that would not work if you think of him as a story teller because Tolkien could just write them out of the book, but I can’t see him doing it that way.
So - from the point of view of narrator, he could hint at other possibilities but there was no need for him to spell them out. So - perhaps he never did work anything else out? His book works by hinting at a vast history and enormous back story - and he had written some of that - unlike many authors he had actually written much of the non narrated backstory. But he certainly hadn’t written it all. His use of flawed narrators let him have a huge back story that none of his characters knew completely, and the fictional compilers of the “red book” which the LOR is supposedly based on in his fictional account of its origins also don’t know completely (had access to the libraries of Gondor but those can be flawed and incomplete too), and sometimes they’d get it wrong. And he has no omniscient perspective on his characters either - so others talk about Gandalf and see him in many different ways, like the young hobbits with their fireworks as the main things they see him as doing. But he never gives Gandalf long introspective thoughts about himself or his path. Sometimes Gandalf reveals his own thoughts and some of his past, but only in glimpses here and there. So the author also not only has a flawed narrators, but as in real life, you have flawed and differing understandings of the character, thoughts and background of those characters too, from multiple points of view. And to complicate that the whole thing is presented in the fictional universe as a flawed compilation of written accounts.
Those also are written accounts that we know can be incorrect in the fictional universe sometimes, as in Bilbo’s first written account of his finding of the ring. In the original version of the Hobbit, Gollum and Bilbo do have a genuine guessing game and Gollum is dismayed when he can’t find the ring to give to Bilbo, and they part amicably. Later Tolkien had to rewrite it to fit the LOR, and so we get the new story, and the old story is presented in LOR as a lie that Bilbo told to strengthen his claim on the ring, under the influence of the ring. So then those two versions of the Hobbit become alternative flawed accounts of what happened with the first one definitely wrong. So what else might be incorrect in the two accounts? You can’t really say that everything in the LOR or the Hobbit actually happened as described in the fictional universe, though it’s a reasonable first guess. Also the characters themselves speculate about how their own adventures might be written up in the future as Frodo and Sam joke about it.
So Tolkien is having fun with flawed perspectives here at multiple levels.
So, I don’t think we will ever know. And quite probably Tolkien himself couldn’t have said, if asked. I think only way we could have new light shed on this is if someone turns up a letter or a written out story that sheds some light on it - but if there was any such, surely the Tolkien fans would have turned it up by now??
A simpler way to see it, since a=b you can substitute b for a, or vice versa, without changing the result, so
b-a = a-a = a-b
Well the software is very thoroughly tested so it doesn’t have bugs in the normal sense. But it did have what you could say is more a bug in design than a mistake of programming.
This showed up on s...
(more)Well the software is very thoroughly tested so it doesn’t have bugs in the normal sense. But it did have what you could say is more a bug in design than a mistake of programming.
This showed up on sol 200, so 200 days after the landing. Its computer ran into issues with its computer memory - reporting dozens of memory glitches. Soon after that, it refused to go to sleep, and also refused to do almost any of the work it was scheduled to do for the day. It wouldn’t do anything that would lead it to write to memory.
When things go wrong with the main computer, Curiosity should automatically activate its “co-pilot” - a second computer that is all set to take over if the main one glitches. But with this glitch, it didn’t do that.
So, would a simple reboot fix it, or was it safe to leave it alone? As you can imagine the software engineers were tearing their hair out - and they found that there just wasn’t any way to find out if that was a safe thing to do by interrogating it.
Meanwhile, two of the engineers managed to replicate the behaviour by damaging the memory in their backup computer. And they called up with a report
“We’re able to reproduce the situation, but you’re not going to like it. The next time the rover tries to communicate, it will probably hang up and turn the radio off. The fault protection never trips and does not try to fix the problem.”
So in other words, just a few hours from then, it was about to just switch itself off, and turn into an inert lump of metal on Mars that they’d never be able to communicate with again.
They tried to solve it and they came to the conclusion there was only one way out of this, to try to kill the computer. If they did that, hopefully Curiosity’s backup computer would take over. This would leave Curiosity with only one computer, and if that one didn’t work, that would be the end of the mission.
So anyway they did that - they found a way to basically kill the main computer, so that it would be forced to reboot using its backup computer. Mars Rover Curiosity
So anyway they managed to do that, and luckily the backup computer did wake up and take over, and that fixed the problem. But it was a close call. They have now repaired the primary computer which can be used as a backup if the same thing happens to the “co-pilot” in the future. The Software Bug That Almost Killed Curiosity Just Six Months In
It shows that in software like that you have to deal not just with the way it deals with normal situations, but also, how it copes with memory failures and other anomalies.
They did do a lot of conventional bug fixing and testing - and they also wrote the code in such a way that it could be tested with automatic bug fixing tools - a method used a fair bit now for the most critical code. It makes the code much slower to write, but more reliable which is the priority. They used Gammatech’s CodeSonar every night while working on the code. They also used Coverity.
But that’s not enough by itself. It can’t catch conceptual problems, if the program works as designed, and has no software bugs in it, like this one of, “what happens if the memory is corrupted in a particular way”.
This automatic bug detection can’t even catch the mismatch of imperial and metric units that crashed the Mars Climate Orbiter, or the mistake Schiaperelli made of cutting off its rocket engines too soon because the spacecraft span too quickly, which confused it so that it thought that it suddenly jumped from miles high into the ground to below ground level in seconds.
PARALLEL CASE OF SCHIAPERELLI
The Schiaperelli crash is rather similar in some ways - not an exact analogy, more a parallel, not a memory corruption, but the spacecraft spinning too quickly (probably because of “uneven disintegration of its thermal blankets and associated hardware” (6.2.3 of the Inquiry) - basically it probably had some stuff stuck to it which got caught in the wind of re-entry and set it spinning, something that also happened during the Curiosity landing.
This confused its software written assuming that its spin rate wouldn’t go above a maximum value. The software was written correctly, bug free, behaved exactly as it was meant to. It’s the specification for the software that was the problem.
As David Parker, ESA head of robotic exploration, said in an interview
“The software behaved the way it was supposed to. It should have been anticipated that the rotation could reach the maximum. The software could have been more robust had it been more cleverly designed.”
That’s not dissimilar - the software worked just fine in normal circumstances. But when something strange happened as with this anomalously fast spin, it needed an extra level of attention to make sure that there was a “sanity check”. Their investigation concluded that with something like that it would probably have landed successfully. The “sanity check” software would have just said “this reading must be wrong, I can’t suddenly be below ground level after being miles high moments earlier” and continued with the mission as if it was nominal and used other methods to double check its altitude.
Its behaviour was quite strange if you think of it in human terms, which of course computers are not. It detected that it was below ground level, so it then fired its retrothrusters for the minimum possible length of time. Then after doing that, in order to “land” as it thought, from its detected position under the surface of Mars, it then started its post landing sequence - all of this while falling towards the ground at great speed, undetected.
A basic sanity check would include rules such as
It would also check the acceleration and check with the pre-flight timetable for basic sanity. See recommendation 05 of the Inquiry.
They recommended collaborating with NASA in the future, who have more experience landing on Mars, asking them to validate their models. Also recommend that a third party checks over the software for issues like this.
The report is here ExoMars 2016 - Schiaparelli Anomaly Inquiry
So, now we have these tools that can help us to produce virtually bug free code - at great expense but worth it for critical missions like that. But they still don’t get rid of the possibility of conceptual bugs like that, where the specification itself doesn’t take account of all the things that could go wrong, and doesn’t have code in place to notice those situations and deal with them if they arise.
We can do that too, but it is harder and it’s more intuitive, it’s based on understanding and experience, not sure how easily it can be automated. I can’t see computers doing that any time soon as at some level you need to have some understanding of the physics of the situation, what’s actually happening in the real world and not just as specified in the coding. Even expert systems are based on training the expert systems by humans who understand what is really going on. Deep Blue has no idea what a chess set is, and Alpha Go has no idea what Go is, and the self driving cars have no idea what a car or a road is. In all of our clever programming to date, impressive as it is, even with all the “deep learning” and everything, there’s nothing there that truly “understands” in the way a human does.
Ah, they have. They got 1m euros (£900,000) from ESA early on, in 2009, then a €10m ($11m, £8m) fund from ESA - then that was enough to unlock £60 million in funding from the UK government (includi...
(more)Ah, they have. They got 1m euros (£900,000) from ESA early on, in 2009, then a €10m ($11m, £8m) fund from ESA - then that was enough to unlock £60 million in funding from the UK government (including paying back the ESA funding). They also have an investment from BAE systems after they bought a 20% stake in the company in 2015 for £20.6 million.
This is enough to continue all the way through to large scale tests of the entire SABRE engine core in 2020.
If that works out fine, like all the other tests have so far, then I imagine it might well be taken up by the UK and ESA with a lot more funding in the early 2020s to develop the plane itself.
BTW the Chinese are also working on a hypersonic space plane. It looks a bit like Skylon, and it starts as a turbojet or turbofan, turns into a ramjet, continues later in its flight as a scramjet (air passing through at supersonic speeds), and finally behaves like a rocket to get into orbit.
Chinese idea for a hypersonic plane to fly into orbit from a runway. Looks rather like Skylon but has a scramjet phase with supersonic airflow.
If I understand right (please correct me if I’m wrong), Skylon starts as a turbojet, then continues as a ramjet - so the incoming air is always slowed down to subsonic speeds - then finally continues as a rocket into orbit. So, I think the main difference is that the Chinese idea has an additional scramjet phase??
Some western academics such as Richard Gombrich have that view that you only realize Nirvana at death. But in the life story of the Buddha it says that he realized Nirvana as a young man and contin...
(more)Some western academics such as Richard Gombrich have that view that you only realize Nirvana at death. But in the life story of the Buddha it says that he realized Nirvana as a young man and continued to teach for many years after that. When he died he entered paranirvana.
When he taught the Buddhist path he taught in terms of the four truths, as a path to realize cessation of dukkha. This makes it a path that doesn’t require the practitioner to subscribe to any beliefs that they can’t verify for themselves. To follow the Buddhist path you need to
But you don’t have to say “I believe in rebirth”, or “I believe in God realms”, or “I believe in a pure land”, or whatever to follow the path of the Buddha. You might believe such things, and there is no problem in that, we believe many things. But it’s a path of keeping an open mind about the truth, and with the idea that there are truths to be seen that can surprise us.
Buddha did say that when he became enlightened he realized that this was his last rebirth. But when he taught the path, and told his followers how to follow the path, he talked always about dukkha and cessation of dukkha, directly, rather than teaching a method to end rebirth.
He never instituted any kind of creed, and there is no list of things you have to say you believe in to become a Buddhist. He would have had to do this if he’d taught a path to end rebirth.
At least if you go by the Buddhist sutras and treat them as authentic, it seems that the Buddhist path is not based on creeds and that you don’t have to say that you believe something to follow the path. Instead it’s a path along which you may have many beliefs, but it’s important to have an open mind to truths which may surprise you. And your starting point is that you recognize dukkha, and
ACADEMIC VIEW OF RICHARD GOMBRICH ETC
All this is very puzzling for some academics, who think that the only way to realize cessation of dukkha is to end rebirth. So also they think that he can’t have done that while still remaining alive because he would continue to be vulnerable to pain and suffering in all its forms. That kind of makes sense, you can understand why they might think that.
But Buddha never says that in the Pali Canon, so they are left with trying to explain why he didn’t say it. Richard Gombrich wrote a book “What the Buddha Thought” to present his views that this was Buddha’s original teaching and that it got lost in the sutras as we have now.
So, generally if you think that, then you need to have the view that the Pali Canon sutras are inauthentic at least to some degree, or miss out some of the central teachings, for some reason, which is Richard Gombrich’s central thesis. Basically you need to take a revisionist approach, that the sutras are incomplete, that there are things that need to be added and things that may be wrong in them.
OTHER ACADEMICS
Only some of them think like Richard Gombrich.
Rupert Gethin who is one of the western Buddhists not pushing this revisionist approach has a good section on Nirvana in his book "The Foundations of Buddhism" :
"We can, then, understand nirvana from three points of view:
- (I) it is the extinguishing of the defilements of greed, hatred, and delusion;
- (2) it is the final condition of the Buddha and arhats after death consequent upon the extinction of the defilements;
- (3) it is the unconditioned realm known at the moment of awakening. "
So - it’s his (3) that the likes of Richard Gombrich deny - but it’s in all the main sutra traditions of Buddhism - that at the moment of awakening, there is a realization that’s more than just an intellectual understanding that “this is my last rebirth”.
Rupert Gethin puts it like this, again quoting from "The Foundations of Buddhism" :
"So far we have considered nirvana from the perspective of a particular experience which has far-reaching and quite specific effects. This is the more straightforward aspect of the Buddhist tradition's understanding of nirvana . There is, however, a further dimension to the tradition's treatment and understanding of nirvana . What precisely does the mind experience at the moment when the fires of greed, hatred and delusion are finally extinguished? At the close of one of the works of the Pali canoh entitled Udiina there are recorded several often quoted 'inspired utterances' (udiina) said to have been made by the Buddha concerning nirvana . Here is the first:
‘There is, monks, a domain where there is no earth, no water, no fire, no wind, no sphere of infinite space, no sphere of nothingness, no sphere of infinite consciousness, no sphere of neither awareness nor non-awareness; there is not this world, there is not another world, there is no sun or moon. I do not call this coming or going, nor standing; nor dying, nor being reborn; it is without support, without occurrence, without object. Just this is the end of suffering.’
"This passage refers to the four elements that constitute the physical world and also what the Buddhist tradition sees as the most subtle forms of consciousness possible, and suggests that there is a 'domain' or 'sphere' (iiyatana) of experience of which these form no part. This 'domain' or 'sphere' of experience is nirvana. It may also be referred to as the 'unconditioned' (asmrzskrta/ asar(lkhata) or 'unconditioned realm' (asar(lskrta-/asar(lkhatadhiitu) in contrast to the shifting, unstable, conditioned realms of the round of rebirth. For certain Abhidharma traditions, at the moment of awakening, at the moment of the extinguishing of the fires of greed, hatred, and delusion, the mind knows this unconditioned realm directly. In the technical terminology of the Abhidharma, nirvana can be said to be the object of consciousness at the moment of awakening when it sees the four truths. Thus in the moment of awakening when all craving and attachments are relinquished, one experiences the profoundest and ultimate truth about the world, and that experience is not of 'a nothing' -the mere absence of greed, hatred, and delusion-but of what can be termed the 'unconditioned'. "
Once more, quoting from Rupert Gethin's "The Foundations of Buddhism" :
"The second truth suggests that we must recognize that the mind has deep-rooted tendencies to crave the particular experiences it likes, and that this craving is related to a fundamental misapprehension of 'the way things are': the idea that lasting happiness is related to our ability to have, to possess and take hold of, these experiences we like. In a world where everything is constantly changing beyond our control, such an outlook brings us not the happiness we seek, but discontent. Thus the third truth suggests that lasting happiness lies in the stopping of craving and grasping, in the rooting-out of greed, aversion, and delusion."
WHAT HAPPENED TO BUDDHA WHEN HE DIED?
Buddha when asked what would happen when he died just wouldn’t answer the question, leaving it as one of the unanswerable questions. In Therevadhan Buddhism - then bodhisattvas continue to take rebirth until eventually they become Buddha, while arhats may realize Nirvana and then just enter paranirvana on death. But - if I understand right, they don’t have the idea of Buddhas who continue to manifest after they die. There’s one puzzle in the Therevadhan Pali Canon - that just before he died, Buddha hinted that he could remain until the end of this world system. Ananda didn’t get the hint and when he finally asked him to remain, it was too late. So , what did he mean by that?
I’m not sure what the Therevadhan interpretation is and would be interested to know.
MISCONCEPTION THAT THE AIM IS TO BALANCE BAD KARMA WITH GOOD
Another misconception is the idea that the aim of a Buddhist is to balance good and bad karma and that if you can generate enough good karma to counterbalance all your bad karma you will cease to exist when you die and that this is the aim of the Buddhist.
But actually, any karma, good or bad, keeps you trapped in Samsara according to the Buddhist ideas. That’s because the results of karma are the results of causes and conditioned. So, Buddha taught that we can come to see that anything conditioned is subject to change and so impermanent. So therefore dukkha. There “dukkha” is often translated as suffering or unsatisfactoriness. But neither of those is quite far enough. It’s possible to have conditions in Samsara that are highly satisfactory, that are blissful even, lasting for long periods of time without a cloud on the horizon. That also would be dukkha though it’s not in any ordinary sense “unsatisfactory”. Dukkha is perhaps more like, “not 100% satisfaction guaranteed happy ever after”.
BEING KIND TO OURSELVES - HAPPINESS IS GOOD
Buddhism isn’t really about trying to get a good life through karmic cause and effect. Well it is up to a point. Buddha encouraged us to be kind to ourselves :). If we can find a way to be happy in this world for a while, there’s nothing wrong with that so long as it’s not harming others. It’s good. Good to be happy, good to help others to be happy. And Karma is just a general way of thinking about cause and effect, at least it’s one way of thinking about it. When you climb a flight of stairs and see a nice view from the top - that’s one of the effects of climbing that flight of stairs - so that is karma. In that sense we are all involved in karmic cause and effect. When you are hungry and go to the shop to buy some food - that’s you involved in karmic cause and effect too.
My example of a stair there is from Prayudh Payutto, who is amongst the most brilliant scholars in the Thai Buddhist tradition (and winner of the 1994 UNESCO prize for Peace Education), with a thorough understanding of the Therevadhan Pali Canon, who has also devoted himself to educating the public on this topic.
This is what he wrote:
There are three philosophies which are considered by Buddhism to be wrong view and which must be carefully distinguished from the teaching of kamma:
- Pubbekatahetuvada: The belief that all happiness and suffering arise from previous kamma (Past-action determinism).
- Issaranimmanahetuvada: The belief that all happiness and suffering are caused by the directives of a Supreme Being (Theistic determinism).
- Ahetu-apaccayavada: The belief that all happiness and suffering are random, having no cause (Indeterminism or Accidentalism)
See Misunderstandings of the Law of Kamma
There one of the biggest western urban myths about karma in Buddhism is that first one: “The belief that all happiness and suffering arise from previous kamma (Past-action determinism).” which as he says is a wrong view in Buddhism. For more on this my Karma in the Buddha's teachings
So, karma is like this ordinary cause and effect we can all see, when we walk up stairs, or go to the shops or put on a kettle for a cup of tea etc. Buddhists just take a rather broader view on it than most of us. Some of the Buddhist schools pay more attention to that broader view of karma, while others, such as Zen Buddhists, hardly pay much attention to it at all. But even with the Buddhist schools and teachers that put a fair bit of emphasis on teachings about karma, it’s not really the central teaching of Buddhism. The central teaching is much more to do with opening to others and - basically not having such a closed in claustrophobic approach to everything.
Buddha taught that you can never escape from the closed in situation we are in by this process of finding causal conditions to create nice peaceful and happy conditions for yourself. Anything that is conditioned like that is also something that can cease when the conditions for it go away. So - basically his central teaching is that the process of working with karma like that can never free you from this claustrophobic world we get caught up in, this wheel of Samsara. It can help you to have a “holiday” - a time that is somewhat more happy, relaxed, where you are not so beset with troubles that you can take a good look at what’s going on and maybe do something about it.
He gives this list of four types of worldly happiness when asked by a wealthy banker Anathapindika,:
“The first happiness is to enjoy economic security or sufficient wealth acquired by just and righteous means (attki-sukha); the second is spending that wealth liberally on himself, his family, his friends and relatives, and on meritorious deeds (bhoga-sukha); the third to be free from debts (anana-sukha); the fourth happiness is to live a faultless, and a pure life without committing evil in thought, word or deed (anavajja-sukha). “
But your “holiday” will eventually end, even if somehow you could get it to last for billions of years, some ET with immensely long lives. We might meet extraterrestrials that have happy lives that will last even for a trillion years. We might feel they have everything made, that they have achieved what we are struggling to find. But according to the teaching of the Buddha, they have still not found a way out of this cycle of Samsara.
He taught that you can even have long periods of time with not a trace of sadness or an unhappy thought, nothing but pure happiness, or even more refined states than that, for immense periods of time, and he praised this worldly happiness.
"The Buddha does not deny happiness in life when he says there is suffering. On the contrary he admits different forms of happiness, both material and spiritual, for laymen as well as for monks. In the Anguttara-nikaya, one of the five original Collections in Pali containing the Buddha's discourses, there is a list of happinesses (sukhdni), such as the happiness of family life and the happiness of the life of a recluse, the happiness of sense pleasures and the happiness of renunciation, the happiness of attachment and the happiness of detachment, physical happiness and mental happiness etc.
“But all these are included in dukkha. Even the very pure spiritual states of dhyana (recueillement or trance) attained by the practice of higher meditation, free from even a shadow of suffering in the accepted sense of the word, states which may be described as unmixed happiness, as well as the state of dhjana which is free from sensations both pleasant (sukha) and unpleasant' (dukkha) and is only pure equanimity and awareness—even these very high spiritual states are included in dukkha. In one of the suttas of the Majjhima-nikdya, (again one of the five original Collections), after praising the spiritual happiness of these dhyanas, the Buddha says that they are 'impermanent, dukkha, and subject to change' (anicca dukkha viparinamadbamma). Notice that the word dukkha is explicitly used. It is dukkha, not because there is 'suffering' in the ordinary sense of the word, but because 'whatever is impermanent is dukkha' (yad aniccam tam dukkham). "
So - working with karma does not give us a “way out”. But opening out to others and compassion and loving kindness - that’s part of the path and is a way that we can transcend all that. That’s in all the main schools of Buddhism. Along with humour and not taking ourselves too seriously, and the help of friends to bring a perspective we can’t see easily for ourselves.
PATH OF GROUNDING IN WHATEVER IS AUTHENTIC AND TRUE
It’s a path of connecting to whatever is authentic and true. Down to Earth and straightforward, and the aim is not to enter into a mystical state or a trance or anything like that.
As Walpola Rahula put it:
"It is incorrect to think that Nirvana is the natural result of the extinction of craving. Nirvana is not the result of anything. If it would be a result, then it would be an effect produced by a cause. It would be sankhata ‘produced’ and ‘conditioned’. Nirvana is neither cause nor effect. It is beyond cause and effect. Truth is not a result nor an effect. It is not produced like a mystic, spiritual, mental state, such as dhyana or samadhi. TRUTH IS. NIRVANA IS. The only thing you can do is to see it, to realize it. There is a path leading to the realization of Nirvana. But Nirvana is not the result of this path.You may get to the mountain along a path, but the mountain is not the result, not an effect of the path. You may see a light, but the light is not the result of your eyesight."
...
In almost all religions the summum bonum can be attained only after death. But Nirvana can be realized in this very life; it is not necessary to wait till you die to ‘attain’ it."
So, if you don’t need to wait until you die to realize Nirvana - what happens when you die? Do you have to enter paranirvana?
First, there’s another misconception that paranirvana is like “going somewhere else” - escaping from Samsara to some other happy place where you are no longer caught up in anything and can enjoy your “well deserved rest”. Well Buddha when asked would not answer questions about whether
As a practicing Buddhists, then there this idea that there is some truth to discover, and that one is following a path that leads to the possibility of realizing that truth, and helping others to realize that truth, in whatever form it might manifest for them, to be able to connect to the ground truth of their situation.
But as to what that truth is, I think best to take any ideas one has about that as just hints, and to recognize that if one understood it truly, one would already be enlightened.
MAHAYANA BUDDHIST IDEA THAT FULLY ENLIGHTENED BUDDHAS CAN CONTINUE TO MANIFEST IN SAMSARA
So, we need to take everything like that, as just hints. But in Mahayana Buddhism you have many new ideas not “spelt out” in Therevadhan Buddhism. And amongst other things, there’s also the idea that Buddhas can continue to manifest in new forms as new beings after they die (and some would say, in other forms also, even apparently inanimate forms like rocks or streams). So you could have a continuing stream of lives connected by rebirth, who are all actually Buddhas, manifestations or inspired by Buddhas.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE DALAI LAMA
So, with the Dalai Lama - he could be any of these. He could be an ordinary being like ourselves, who has a connection with enlightenment (according to Tibetan Buddhists anyway) and carries that blessing with all his rebirths. Or he could be a bodhisattva, on a similar path to Buddha in his previous rebirths before he became Buddha. Or he could be Buddha already. You can see any being as a Buddha, according to some mahayana teachings - this is the idea of our Buddha nature - it’s a bit like the Quaker idea of “that of God in everyone” - that we have the awakened heart, the compassion, the wisdom, boundless like the Buddha, if we could only see it. So close, but we miss this because it is so close. Everyone, even terrorists, we all have this. So - how could that be, how could a terrorist be Buddha? Well I think it’s almost impossible to see that if not Buddha, but maybe a hint - that it’s something to do with not being caught up in the linear time stream we use to pattern everything. They are perhaps connecting to their future enlightenment, maybe countless lifetimes into the future, and seeing that in the present. But I think that’s a rather crude way of looking at it.
But anyway that’s an idea some Christians have too, and probably in other religions. That you never give up on anyone. So then - how you see someone else, it’s to do with your heart, how you open out to them. So you may see someone as bodhisattva or Buddha. And someone else might not be able to see that in them at all. So in that way it’s a kind of unanswerable question whether the Dalai Lama “really” is an ordinary being, or a bodhisattva, or already Buddha.
He himself will say that he is just an ordinary monk following the Buddhist path.
Summary: Yes it’s true that some rich people are buying space in bunkers, and the CEO of the company markets them as bunkers to escape from Nibiru, so presumably he thinks that’s a message that hel...
(more)Summary: Yes it’s true that some rich people are buying space in bunkers, and the CEO of the company markets them as bunkers to escape from Nibiru, so presumably he thinks that’s a message that helps to sell his bunkers. This just shows that wealthy people are not immune to falling prey to BS merchants who find new ways to part them from their wealth.
IN DETAIL
This story is true. Well actually, what they buy is space in a bunker able to hold 80 people to survive for a year. The shelters are in Eastern Germany and were developed by the Russians during the cold war to survive a nuclear war. There are many such shelters in Europe and the States that the government no longer needs. Indeed - that the governments aren’t interested in these shelters surely suggests that they are hardly preparing for a flyby of Nibiru :). Any government that has anyone on their staff who understands basic astronomy will LOL at that idea. And, why would they be selling off surplus underground shelters if they planned to house all the elite in them?
Anyway this is the company: Vivos (underground shelter). They own a Soviet surplus underground shelter site in Rothenstein, East Germany. And certainly intended for the super rich. Here is a view of the inside of one of the bunkers, as done up by Vivos (I’m not sure if it is already built or if this is an artist’s rendering of it):
Their communal swimming pool
It was originally an underground weapons storage facility for military equipment and munitions built by the Soviets in the cold war. But they had to sell it because it was too close to a main road to store weapons. Billionaire Bunkers: Exclusive Look Inside the World's Largest Planned Doomsday Escape
According to that article in Forbes magazine, it can withstand just about everything including a nuclear bomb falling close by, airplane crash, chemical and biological agents, etc.
A typical chamber is 5 meters wide, 6 meters tall and 85 meters long. It has a total of five kilometers of tunnels if you put them all end to end.
This apparently is a bedroom from the complex
There are three separate nuclear blast and radiation proof vehicle entrances to the shelter, and each entry is blocked by a 40 ton access door fitted with hardened steel rods, and a second set of airtight sealed doors, to protect against biological, chemical and gas.
So yes - if you are super rich (it’s obviously marketed to billionaires and multi millionaires from the photos), you can buy yourself a space in this bunker. And the CEO, Robert Vicino, gets the red top tabloids like the Daily Star to run stories like this: SHOCK CLAIM: Elite preparing for Nibiru apocalypse NEXT YEAR but the rest of us are DOOMED (Express) or Global Elite Preparing For Nibiru Apocalypse In September 2017: ‘But They Don’t Have A Plan For Us, Only For Themselves,’ Claims Vivos CEO Robert Vicino (Inquistr).
He’s got an obvious commercial reason for promoting doomsday fear of Nibiru. It doesn’t at all mean that anyone who knows any astronomy thinks that Nibiru is real.
It means that someone who is selling underground bunkers has managed to persuade the red top tabloids to run a story to promote his company - and that there are some very wealthy people who are scared of Nibiru - if indeed that’s why they buy space in his bunkers.
Wealthy people are just like everyone else, they aren’t necessarily sensible. They may be good at selling things, or may be that they inherited wealth, or got lucky, won the lottery or whatever. It doesn’t mean they understand astronomy and are immune to being peddled bullshit by BS merchants like Vicino. They are just like you or me, except that for one reason or another they happen to be billionaires or multi-millionaires, and there are a lot of billionaires around now.
If that doesn’t convince you, if you are someone who is ready to believe any conspiracy theory that is floated on the web, even one promoted with an obvious commercial reason- ask yourself - why would governments be selling off these bunkers if they needed them for their own elite?
Governments do have underground shelters, in the cold war especially, also even during WWII, you can go and visit Churchill’s underground shelter in London. And the US is still building them and probably others also. But it’s not to protect against Nibiru. It’s still for the same reason as these were built originally, in case of war, mainly nuclear war.
And since the cold war they’ve been selling them off mainly, though they do still build and maintain some. See Debunked: The US government is building vast underground bunkers to escape from Nibiru by Robert Walker on Debunking Doomsday
So yes, governments do build underground bases. And NO - that does not mean they are preparing for Nibiru! The whole idea of Nibiru is bonkers so for sure no government is going to waste even a moment of thought about it.
And yes, some very wealthy people do apparently buy space in bunkers in East Germany. That doesn’t show that they know anything that anyone else doesn’t. It just means that being wealthy doesn’t make you immune to BS and to being sold lies by people who want some of your wealth.
This is a copy of my Debunked: Rich people are buying bunkers to escape from Nibiru
He has been campaigning all his life for nuclear disarmament. And - I think he has caught the mood of many people in this country with his views there. The SNP have as their policy to do unilateral...
(more)He has been campaigning all his life for nuclear disarmament. And - I think he has caught the mood of many people in this country with his views there. The SNP have as their policy to do unilateral disarmament, giving up Trident as soon as possible after independence. That didn’t hurt them in the last election, as they gained all except three of the seats in Scotland. His view is shared by top people in the military. This is from a letter by retired generals in 2008, when Trident was projected to cost $20 billion (it’s now projected to cost well over $250 billion for the lifetime cost, though the government refuses to answer any questions about the total cost)
See Generals in 'scrap Trident' call
"Nuclear weapons have shown themselves to be completely useless as a deterrent to the threats and scale of the violence we currently face, or are likely to face - particularly international terrorism."
"Our independent deterrent has become virtually irrelevant except in the context of domestic politics.
"Rather than perpetuating Trident, the case is much stronger for funding our armed forces with what they need to meet the commitments actually laid upon them. In the present economic climate it may well prove impossible to afford both."
Meanwhile Theresa May has said she will actually consider first use of nuclear weapons. I.e. to use them against an aggressor who has not fired nuclear weapons at us. Her defense secretary put it like this:
“In the most extreme circumstances we have made it clear that you can’t rule out use of nuclear weapons as a first strike.”
No UK prime minister has ever said that before as far as I know. They generally just refuse to be drawn on it.
Jeremy Corbyn’s views don’t seem to have been a vote loser. This is the latest graph from the BBC.
The dots are all over the place, but the red dots for Labour have continued a steep upwards trend as he continues to put his views on nuclear weapons forward forcefully (along with his other policies of course).
UNILATERAL DISARMAMENT
We all know that of course he voted to scrap Trident. However by principles of democracy, he is going with the will of his party which is to keep it.
So anyway I’d like to say a bit first about the case for unilateral disarmament. I understand that the likes of the US feel the need to engage in multi-lateral disarmament, that their weapons are a powerful bargaining chip that they can use to get other countries to disarm. But with the UK - it's something we can do unilaterally, to show to the world that there's no benefit in having weapons that can kill millions of people in one go.
It would be an especially powerful statement because we are such a long standing nuclear power. I don’t think many know this, but the UK as well as being early pioneers in the unmanned space program (our Black Arrow rocket launched a satellite Prospero into space from Australia in 1971), were also only the third nation to test a nuclear weapon, in 1952, after the US and Russia, seven years after the bombing of Nagasaki and Hiroshima in 1945, and that was an independently developed weapon. We did our nuclear tests in Australia.
Our nuclear subs are our own technology, built in Barrow-in-Furness in the Lake District. The missiles that deliver the nuclear weapons are built by Lockheed Martin in the US, and, the UK contributed 5% of the development costs. The nuclear warheads themselves are again made in the UK, and assembled in Aldermaston by the Atomics Weapons Establishment which makes new warheads every year (warheads deteriorate and need to be replaced). This is done under an agreement with the US dating back to 1958 that the UK is allowed to draw inspiration from the US nuclear warhead designs but we can construct and maintain our own warheads.
So it would be a rather striking statement if we gave up our nuclear weapons - and Jeremy Corbyn would do that as part of a multi-lateral disarmament process.
He really wants to do it unilaterally and the main reason I'd hesitate voting Labour is that some of the Labour MPs seem to have bought into this idea that possessing nuclear weapons somehow makes us safer.
I don't think it does make us safer at all, just makes us a target. And the only sane response if someone dropped nuclear weapons on another country is to not respond with nuclear weapons. How could anyone consider killing millions of people with nuclear weapons as a way to respond? It's like carpet bombing a whole city in one go.
In a situation like that, for instance if North Korea were to drop a nuclear weapon on another country, there would be universal condemnation of the country that dropped the bomb, and I don't think their government would last long after such an event if there was no nuclear weapons retaliation. They would have no support at all. China certainly wouldn’t support North Korea if it launched a nuclear weapon.
If we had a Green candidate I'd vote for them as they have a policy of unilateral disarmament - I think the UK could show a lead by giving up its nuclear weapons - joining the many other countries that could make nuclear weapons and have made a decision to not make them or to stop making them. It would be the first country I think to do so since South Africa.
SNP would do that too, If they gain independence, then Scotland would not have Trident so Scotland would briefly be a nuclear power that unilaterally disarms, again making them first to do so for a fair while and sending a powerful signal to the world.
THE WHOLE POINT IS NOT TO USE THE WEAPONS - AND IF YOU CAN GET RID OF THEM IN A PROCESS OF MULTILATERAL DISARMAMENT, SO MUCH THE BETTER
So,Jeremy Corbyn is not pushing for unilateral disarmament, given the mood of his party. But he his at least going to be pushing for multilateral disarmament strongly.
The idea used to criticize him in the TV debates - that he wants to give up a multibillion dollar submarine fleet - somehow they see that as a reason to vote against him, as if the cost of the program was a reason why it has to go head. Do they think that the Trident submarines should actually be used, because they cost so much?
Surely their only role is to prevent nuclear war, and the program is only successful if they are never used? So if they can be a bargaining chip towards multilateral nuclear disarmament, then they have played their role far better than if we were to keep them.
And if we don't complete them, then we save billions of dollars, the latest estimate I know of is £205 billion for the lifetime cost including decommissioning. That’s $265 billion.
If Jeremy Corbyn gets an increased share of the vote compared to the last election, which is seeming at least possible, then that will show strong support for his policies not just amongst Labour party members who elected him but in the country as a whole. So that would give him a stronger position in his own party too, and probably deal with the divisions in his party to a fair degree as well. So then they will see that his policies on nuclear disarmament aren't a vote loser but actually a vote gainer.
I thought the lady at the end in this video hit the nail on its head with her
"I don't understand why everyone in this room seems so keen on killing millions of people?"
I think she speaks for many of us
To add to the other answers, the Dalai Lama is a Buddhist teacher, yes, one of many from Tibet. Unusually he had a secular role as well, as head of the country but he has renounced that now.
As Alex...
(more)To add to the other answers, the Dalai Lama is a Buddhist teacher, yes, one of many from Tibet. Unusually he had a secular role as well, as head of the country but he has renounced that now.
As Alex Zendo said, Buddhists don’t have any spiritual leader for Buddhism as a whole. There is no no spiritual leader even for the main schools of Tibetan Buddhism. There are many Buddhist teachers from Tibet and there are Western teachers now recognized as able to teach in the same traditions. As a Buddhist practicing in the tradition, you might have any of these as your main teacher or teachers and you may have many teachers.
However, it’s not at all like the Pope, where the Pope can make proclamations and resolve spiritual issues for the Catholic Church (if I understand right). The Dalai Lama can’t change a word of the Buddhist teachings, nor does he have any authority over what other Buddhist teachers teach. He can’t tell Tibetan Buddhists what to do. He can give more detailed personal advice to his own students, but when, for instance, the Chinese ask him to say that Tibetan Buddhists should do x or y, that’s just not something that is part of his role. He could say such things, but there would be no obligation on any Buddhist to do what he says, and they wouldn’t be expected to. So this is an impossible request. What he can do is to present his understanding of the Buddhist teachings, and especially, his understanding of them in the Tibetan Buddhist traditions which he has a deep knowledge of. But in this he has no priority over any other Buddhist teacher.
The four main traditions of Buddhism do have teachers who are heads, but their role is mainly administrative at least compared with Western ideas of the leaders of a religious group, and ceremonial, passing on blessings that they in turn have received from their teachers.
Also there are many different styles and ways of practicing the path of the Buddha. You find your own path, you connect to the truth as best you can, and you listen to the advice of those you consider to be wise, and you put what they say into practice and judge the advice by how it works in practice. That’s Buddha’s instruction in the sutras.
He is a recognized reincarnation of the previous Dalai Lama which means he was recognized as a young boy - but he has no hereditary or other connection with the previous Dalai Lamas. He was just a child of a small farmer in a remote subsistence village in Tibet. The method Tibetans use for choosing a new Dalai Lama only makes sense if you believe in rebirth.
Also, there’s no idea there that he would be the “same personality” as the previous Dalai Lama. The present day Dalai Lama is scholarly with a deep understanding of the Tibetan Buddhist sutras and teachings, passed his Lharumpa degree as a young man in his early 20s (it usually takes 15 years). He has studied all four of the main Buddhist traditions in Tibetan Buddhism. He is also a Buddhist monk. Previous Dalai Lamas were different in personality and not all of them were scholars. The sixth Dalai Lama particularly was a poet, a bit like the Western William Blake, whose poems are still enjoyed to this day by Tibetans and he handed back his novice monk’s robes as a young man.
The Dalai Lama and the Panchen Lama are connected - the Dalai Lamas recognize and help to locate the young Panchen Lamas and vice versa. But when our current Dalai Lama recognized the young Panchen Lama, the Chinese removed him for safe keeping making him the youngest political prisoner at age 6 and installed their own selection for the Dalai Lama instead.
Photograph of the Panchen Lama Gedhun Choekyi Nyima aged six. The Chinese took him into custody soon after, as a six year old, saying it is for his own protection.
If he is still alive he is now aged 28. The Chinese say he is still alive and well and living a normal life, but they have not permitted anyone outside of China to communicate with him and won’t say where he is in China.
The Dalai Lama says he hasn’t decided yet whether to have another recognized rebirth when he dies. If he doesn’t, this may be our last Dalai Lama. If he does, understandably, he has said that he won’t take rebirth in China. So far all the Dalai Lamas have been men, but when asked he has said that the next Dalai Lama could be a woman.
If this is our last Dalai Lama, he would still take rebirth, but his next rebirth would not be recognized, so would have no way to know that he or she was the Dalai Lama in a previous life (unless she or he had the ability to see past lives like the Buddha).
Okay, first none of the projections, even business as usual, have all the ice in Antarctica melt even in the next few thousand years if we can stop increasing CO2 levels by 2100. So I’m going to as...
(more)Okay, first none of the projections, even business as usual, have all the ice in Antarctica melt even in the next few thousand years if we can stop increasing CO2 levels by 2100. So I’m going to assume in this answer that you want to know the worst possible scenarios for climate change, rather than the end result of all the ice in Antarctica melting, perhaps hundreds of thousands of years from now.
After all over those timescales it wouldn’t be a major issue to gradually move the population and who knows also what our technology will be capable of by then - we may be able to take the excess carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and do many other things by then.
Also the melting ice sheet in Greenland is as much an issue as the Antarctica ice sheet over the next few centuries, so I’ll talk about them both.
SHORT SUMMARY
The ice in Greenland could melt completely over a thousand years with a 7 meters sea level rise. Both Greenland and the Western Antarctic ice sheet are losing ice at present and the rate of loss is accelerating. With business as usual, enough of the ice in Western Antarctica may melt by 2100 to cause a 10 foot rise in sea level. The rise would be uneven. Also the figures for 2100 could be underestimates. It’s hard to know because ice sheets melt in an uneven way, with sudden collapses leading to a large amount melting in one go rather than slowly and steadily, and the rate at which the ice is melting is increasing, which makes it hard to estimate exactly what will happen. The IPCC recommends that countries using their data recognize that the figures are conservative and allow for higher rises in sea level than their predictions.
The uneven sea level rises mean that some parts of the world will get much lower rises in sea level, or perhaps none at all, and others will get much more than the average. For instance Greenland ice attracts the sea towards it just by the gravitational effect of all that mass. That contributes a significant amount to the sea level as far south as the north of Scotland. So if the Greenland ice melts, then the overall sea level rises, but the sea level around Scotland doesn’t rise, because of the reduced gravity from the Greenland ice sheet. Instead some of the sea currently bunched up around Scotland and the northern Atlantic close to Greenland spreads out further south. But places like Florida and the Eastern coast of the USA then get a double whammy of a raised sea level due to more water in the seas from the melted ice, plus some of that extra sea level due to the reduced gravitational attraction of the Iceland ice sheet which causes sea currently humped up around Iceland to spread further away.
The local geology is also relevant. Netherlands can just increase the height of its dams. Other countries could protect themselves using dams and some regions though they would end up below sea level would not be flooded because there is higher land between them and the sea. But that only works if the geology is impervious to sea water.
So, Florida is one of the most impacted of all by a sea level increase, because it’s made up of a porous limestone rock. This makes it impossible to use dams like the ones in the Netherlands to keep the water out of Florida, because the sea can just seep through the rocks below the dams, making them useless. There isn’t any easy way to fix this. So even though it is a wealthy state that can easily afford technological solutions, there is nothing they can do with present day technology to keep the sea out. All they could do is to evacuate the flooded regions or raise the ground locally higher above sea level - or build Venice like cities on piles.
Some of the worst affected countries include Florida, the Bahamas and Bangladesh. 5% of the population of the Bahamas will be displaced by just a one meter increase in sea level, corresponding perhaps to a 1.5 or 2 C rise in temperature.
Coastal cities in the US like Miami and New York are also particularly vulnerable.
Then with “business as usual” low coral islands in the Western Pacific would disappear under the sea completely and their populations would need to be evacuated, so they are worst affected of all. The west coast of African and Eastern Australia would also be affected and some other places.
EVENTUAL RISE - SIX METERS?
The ice in Antarctica and Greenland is currently melting, so there’s no denying that the sea level will rise, the only question really is how high the sea level rise will be.
One paper suggested a 6 meter rise, though this is not the rise by 2100, but the eventual rise which might take anything between centuries and thousands of years. It did it by comparing the present with past warming episodes in previous interglacials.
With this study, cities in Japan would also be severely affected. According to one study, 18 million people in Tokyo and Osakai would find their homes are underwater with a rise in temperature of 2 C and 34 million people with a 4 C rise.
Miami, New Orleans and New York would also be affected with potentially 20 million people finding their homes below sea level eventually with a 4 C rise.
China is amongst the most affected of all with 134 million people who potentially may find their homes under water with a 4 C rise. That includes 44 million people in Shangai, Tianjin, Hong Kong and Taizhou.
India, Vietnam, Egypt, Brazil and the Philippines would also be affected with millions of people finding their homes are below sea level. For instance a significant part of the populations of Mumbai and Calcutta. You can find city by city projections here.
The big question is how long this would take. If it’s a thousand years, then that’s time to move the population of the cities or respond in other ways. If it’s a century or two, it’s a major upheaval. It is difficult though to model this exactly- as it depends on the behaviour of both the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and the local effects, e.g. how much a particular country is affected, will depend on the gravitational effects of the remaining ice, which depends on which of those melts the most, as well as other effects such as the distribution of the sea over the globe changing as its temperature changes.
I’ve used material from different sources here. They don’t always say the same thing and as you’ll see there is a fair bit of uncertainty in the projections. That’s normal for cutting edge science which is what this is. The general trend is the same for all the sources, but they differ in detail - how much each ice sheet would be affected, and now much etc.
IN DETAIL: UNEVEN EFFECTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE
The IPCC has already said that the sea levels will rise by up to one meter by 2100 if we don't use stronger methods to limit greenhouse gases. These graphs are from their summary for policy makers from 2014.
There the RCPs are the Representative Concentration Pathways considered by the IPCC. RCP 8.5 is business as usual. RCP 2.6 has emissions peak before 2020 with an immediate and rapid decrease in emissions, roughly what the Paris agreement is attempting to achieve. RCP 5.6 has a peak around 2040 and RCP 6.0 has a peak at 2080.
This shows the temperature changes for the business as usual and the rapid reductions scenarios.
The temperature increases there are measured relative to the average for 1986–2005
There are many uncertainties there as you can see by the range of values with 2.2 °C difference between the projections for 2100. It's also possible that the temperatures are above or below those numbers. The same applies even more for the rising oceans. You might think that a sea level rise has to happen uniformly over the entire world, as after all the oceans are interconnected. But no, they don't rise uniformly. As an example, New York experiences a much higher sea level rise than normal while London will have a much lower sea level rise than normal for the same average sea level rise.
There are several effects here
You might wonder how something so small as an ice sheet can have enough gravitational pull to raise sea levels. But a mountain sized mass just one kilometer away from you has four times the pull as the same amount of matter two kilometers away and a ten thousandth of the pull as the same amount a hundred kilometers away.
So, although the way the maths works is that it adds up so that the mass of the entire Earth has the same effect on you as a point with the same mass as the Earth at its center, it is not all concentrated there at all of course. The matter that is close to you has most effect, counterbalanced by a tiny pull from large amounts of matter far away from you. So a small change in the mass distribution close to where you live can have a significant effect on the sea levels around the coast.
Of course any mountains close to the shore will exert a gravitational pull on the sea, but those are constant unchanging effects (except as a result of major volcanic eruptions). So,in normal situations, only the ice sheets, by melting, can change that pull.
They used two scenarios in their models. Their high end scenario contributes 30 cm of sea level rise by 2100 and their mid range scenario contributes 7 cm by then. The increase in the rate of ice loss per year (every year) for the two scenarios were 2.5 and 19.1 gigatons per year respectively. The rate of ice loss increased by on average 14.5 Gt per year each year over the period from 1992 to 2012 so at present we are running closer to the high end scenario than the low end one.
In this figure, from the paper describing this research in 2013, the green line outlines a region with a 0.5 meter sea level rise for the scenario of a 7 cm (MR) rise in average sea levels.
In this figure, the green line outlines a region with a 0.5 meter sea level rise, and the blue line outlines a region with a 1 meter sea level rise for the scenario of a 30 cm (HE) rise in average sea levels.
The result of this is that places like Scotland and Scandinavia may see almost zero change in sea level from ice melting, because they are influenced by the mass loss from Greenland. Only the thermal expansion of the oceans will matter there. While with the high end scenario for global warming, sea level rises could reach a meter in the Western Pacific. There, many people live on low islands made up of coral and may need evacuating. It also has severe impacts on some of the coastal regions of North and South America, the Caribbean, the West coast of Africa, Eastern Australia and some other places. In the Americas, the Bahamas are particularly affected as is Florida and many coastal cities. Discussion of this here: Ice Melt Means Uneven Sea Level Rise Around the World
One of the big uncertainty there is about the rate of melting of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. The rate at which they are melting has continued to increase, year after year, and the estimates depend on how much this rate continues to increase. More on that in the next section.
See the article in the Guardian about the guide to these scenarios
This again shows the uneven sea level rises for two of the scenarios:
Sea level rises for 2030, 2060 and 2090 for the scenarios RCP4.5 (middle range) and RCP8.5 ("business as usual"). The black lines are contours for the middle of the range sea level rise so mark the boundaries of areas of the sea that rise less than normal and areas that rise more than normal.
This map is not entirely consistent with the previous one. This is the more recent paper from 2016, so probably the more accurate. However it is also very low resolution.
LONGER TERM EFFECTS - COLLAPSE OF THE WESTERN ANTARCTIC ICE SHELF
But what happens further into the future in the future? Well eventually, with "business as usual", the Greenland ice sheet is likely to melt completely leading to a sea level rise of 7 meters average, and much higher in some parts of the world. The threshold for this to happen is probably less than 4 C relative to pre-industrial and it may happen even with a 1 C rise. But this is likely to take a thousand years (it takes a long time to melt all that ice). What about the nearer future, in the 22nd century?
In these new studies, a team of glaciologists using satellite and air measurements say that the ice in Western Antarctica has already started a process that is probably impossible to stop. With ice penetrating satellite radar mapping of the terrain beneath the ice (using the EU Sentinel 1 satellites), they say that here are no mountains or hills significant enough to slow the collapse. The fastest melting glacier, Smith glacier, is losing 70 meters thickness of ice a year. It's grounding line - the point at which it starts to float on the sea - is retreating two kilometers a year and has been doing that since 2011, is continuing unabated.
There are six glaciers that will collapse, enough to raise the sea level another four feet. But these may collapse other glacier leading to a rise of sea levels triple that. A separate team studying just one of the glaciers, Thwaite glacier, came to the same conclusion that collapse is inevitable. That is, will happen anyway, based on the CO2 emissions so far.
If so then this would cause a 10 foot rise in sea level. This would cause issues for coastal cities like New York and low lying countries like the Netherlands and Bangladesh which is the area in the world likely to be most affected by sea level rise since much of the country is not far above sea level.
They spotted a new rift which may lead for a large ice sheet to break off again, like the giant 225 square mile "iceberg" of 2015.
Rift in Pine Island Glacier ice shelf, Credit NASA/Nathan Kurtz.
They say there that many think it is inevitable that the Western Antarctic ice sheet will disappear. The main Antarctic ice sheet is still growing. Antarctica has been growing steadily all through the glacial and interglacial periods which is why we have these long ice cores to look at the temperature changes in Antarctica in exquisite detail. If we continue "business as usual" it will stop growing and eventually thousands of years into the future, melt completely. But that is not a risk at present. The risk is just from the Western ice sheet. But because the ice rests on land, rather than on the sea, adding this to the oceans will raise the height of the oceans, and they estimate by 10 feet so about 3 meters.
So what effect will it have if they are right? Not end of civilization. But some major issues. Florida is amongst the most affected since the underlying geology is porous limestone. This means it will be impossible to build conventional flood barriers as the sea will just percolate through the rock beneath them. So it seems inevitable that Florida will be flooded if sea levels rise. Only mitigation, such as evacuating the affected regions, or preventing climate change is possible as a way ahead.
Here it is as it is now.
Florida at current sea level (click to go to interactive map) - The areas shaded are not mapped, so ignore them.
Here it is at 3 feet
Florida at 3 feet - a level likely to be reached by 2100 with "business as usual" - shaded areas are not mapped
Florida at six feet, a level likely to be reached in the 22nd century if the West Antarctic ice continues to melt. Some think we may reach that level sooner, even by 2100, with "business as usual" Again, shaded areas not mapped.
Florida before and after a 3 meter sea level rise due to melting ice from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Image made using the Eustatic Sea Level Change tool from Virtual Earth System Laboratory (VESL).
Florida is already getting affected more than usual by hurricanes because of the one foot the sea has risen by so far. See Goodbye Miami for an article in Rolling Stone magazine about these issues.
However, remember that Florida is in an area that is much more affected by the global sea level rise than the average, so it may be flooded much more than this. The Bahamas are also impacted. Just a 1.5 or 2 C rise in temperature will already have a significant impact there. 5% of the population of the Bahamas would be displaced if the sea level rose by one meter.
SURGING SEAS RESULTS
Shows the effects on Japan of a 4 C rise (left) and 2 C rise (right), image from Climate Central
Thirty-four million people in Japan, 25 million the United States, 20 million in the Philippines, 19 million Egypt and 16 million in Brazil.
The worst affected cities in the US include Miami, New Orleans and New York.
145 million people in China live in cities that would be underwater with a 4 C rise in temperature.
NEW YORK
This is the projection for New York city which experiences higher sea level rises than the global average:
New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report Executive Summary
Here is their detailed map of possible sea flooding zones for New York city by various dates from the 2020s to 2100.
SEA LEVEL MAPS
You can have an explore of the world to get a rough first idea of the effects of local sea level rises with this interactive map
Global sea level rise map. This map was created by Alex Tingle using Google maps and NASA elevation data.
This shows Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba after a 9 meter rise, which isn’t going to happen any time soon, like in the next century or two, but may be the very long term effect of all that ice melting.
It uses NASA altitude data which is approximate. It also just maps a new sea level against the topography of google maps. Places that are inland below sea level of course will not experience sea level rises even if shown flooded in the diagram (you need to trace out to see if there is a connection with the sea). But in the case of Florida, since the underlying rock is porous, then the map probably pretty much shows what the effect would be no matter what flood defenses are used.
Also this map doesn't take account of the uneven nature of sea level rise around the world. So you can’t just dial in the projected global sea level rise. You need to dial in your local sea level rise if you know what it is projected to be.
SURGING SEAS MAP
For a more accurately done map - but one that is slower to navigate unless you have a fast internet connection, see the Surging Seas. It takes account of local differences when working out sea level effects and also takes account of areas contiguous to the sea. To find out when your area will be affected by the various sea level rises, then click on Projections on the map and then choose the relevant scenario and it will show the date by which that sea level rise is projected to happen, if it happens before 2200.
Use this to get a better idea of what the effects would be. But for sea level rise especially, its estimates for when you will reach a particular sea level for the various scenarios may be an underestimate, as the IPCC projections are regarded as quite conservative.
NOAA MAP
The maps I did for Florida used the NOAA map, which is detailed and accurate but is only available for the USA. You can find it here, Sea Level Rise Viewer.
CONVERSION OF GLOBAL TO LOCAL SEA LEVEL RISES
One big problem I had with the material here on flooding, is that I can't find a good high resolution map to convert global sea level rises into local sea level rises. E.g. how much of a rise do you get at Florida for a global sea level rise of 1 meter? The sea level maps suggest anything between over 3 meters for the first map (if it scales up similarly to the 30 cm rise), and a little over 1 meter for the second one. The second one is published three years later but is very low resolution. Both indeed are so low resolution it is hard to be sure what the situation is for a small region such as Florida
The IPCC summary for policy makers from 2014. reports says
" Sea level rise will not be uniform across regions. By the end of the 21st century, it is very likely that sea level will rise in more than about 95% of the ocean area. About 70% of the coastlines worldwide are projected to experience a sea level change within ±20% of the global mean"
But it doesn't say how to identify the 30% of coastlines that have sea level rises more than 20% above or below the global sea level rise, or how to find out how much of a rise they get.
The Storm Surge site lets you show when the sea level rise you dial in is reached for a few selected points on the map according to the two scenarios they give but they don't say how to convert global to local sea level rises either.
Does anyone reading this know of anything more detailed we can use for this?
OTHER PLACES VULNERABLE TO SEA LEVEL RISES
World wide then naturally the Netherlands are amongst the most affected. As a rich country they would be able to increase the height of their flood defenses but it would be expensive. Other coastal areas in France, Belgium, Denmark and the UK (e.g. the Norfolk broads) would also be affected.
Here is the area as it is now:
And after a 3 meter rise. Remember only places that are shown as blue and connected to the sea would actually be flooded. Unless the geology is porous, inland areas below sea level would not be affected, and the Netherlands particularly can be expected to build better flood defenses, though a 3 meter increase in height of them would be an expensive undertaking. However I'm not sure what the local sea level rise would be there, for a 3 meter global rise.
Then finally, this shows the effect for Bangladesh of a 3 meter rise. This is likely to be an overwhelming humanitarian issue for a poor country with a huge population and they would surely need external help to deal with the issues. I'll do it as links to the images:
And after a 3 meter sea level rise such as might happen by 2100 if the western Antarctic ice sheet melts
(I will see if I can get some better maps for Bangladesh and for the Netherlands area)
A ten foot rise in sea level will not mean the end of civilization at all, but it will lead to major problems for several particularly vulnerable spots world wide.
Even if we stop all CO2 releases, unless we actively remove it from the atmosphere, then it's going to continue to warm the oceans, and melt the ice long into the future. That's because of the long time that CO2 remains in the atmosphere, the yet slower response of the ocean levels to the warming Earth, and the even slower response of the melting ice sheets. The Greenland ice sheets are melting fast, losing 270 billion tons of ice a year. There is a lot of ice there. It should take thousands of years for it to all melt. But if it all melts then the sea levels will eventually rise by 7 meters.
That should be no problem, if it happens slowly, we have to abandon coastal cities such as New York, London, etc. Or we build massive flood barriers.
Or we actively remove CO2 from the atmosphere and so prevent the flooding over thousands of years timescales. Over such large timescales , we could do any of that.
NEED FOR POLITICAL DECISIVE ACTION
So, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the models, and they will continue to refine them surely for decades into the future. There are many details that they can model and look into. Also computers will continue to become more powerful, permitting more detailed models taking account of more and more effects. Although they think they have a reasonable understanding of what will happen, there is plenty of reason to continue to debate it and to work on the fine details of what is going to happen. How much will the temperature rise with business as usual? Or have we got it all wrong and it won't 'rise at all? Or what if it rises much more than expected?
At that point it becomes a political rather than a scientific decision. The scientists have done the best they can with their models, and continue to do so. They provide their best projections for the future, along with estimates of how certain they are. As is usual in science, then there are a few outliers in both directions, scientists that think the effects will be more than predicted and others who think they will be less than predicted. And sometimes the minority view in science turns out to be right. If we wait for certainty however, it will be too late to act, if the IPCC is right that we need to act swiftly to prevent the worst of the effects.
The politicians and the general public who vote for them then have to decide what to do with this information. In the past, this has been a matter for a great deal of political debate world wide. But now, in the rest of the world outside the US, that debate has already reached a conclusion, and we've moved on to action. There were many actions we could have done, but this was the decision embodied in the Paris agreement. While in the US politicians are still debating it, and indeed Trump has just left the Paris agreement, making the US the only country other than Syria and Nicaragua who are not party to the Paris agreement - and in the case of Nicaragua it has withdrawn as a symbolic protest because it thinks that the Paris agreement doesn’t go far enough. and is actually doing more than is needed for the Paris agreement in its actions against climate change. So the only country other than the US not in the agreement is Syria, and in the case of Syria it’s not that they object to the agreement particularly, it is rather that it’s understandable because of the chaos and war in their country that they haven’t managed to join it yet.
This image is being shared on social media as "Politicians Discussing Global Warming." - although that's not the original name of this work, originally called "Follow the Leaders" It was an installation by the sculptor Isaac Cordal in Berlin in 2011. The new title is more powerful though. At some point we have to stop debating and act. The rest of the world have decided they have had enough debate and it is time to act already. But US is still debating and has elected a climate skeptic president who has withdrawn from the Paris agreement.
There are many other effects of course other than flooding.
This answer uses material from my Order Patterned With Chaos - How Climate Is Predicted For Decades - With Exact Forecasts Only For Days - which I wrote in December 2016, so I’ve updated some of it for this answer.
As a result of this announcement, the US joins a select group of three countries that haven’t signed the agreement: Nicaragua, Syria and now the United States of America.
(more)As a result of this announcement, the US joins a select group of three countries that haven’t signed the agreement: Nicaragua, Syria and now the United States of America.
And Nicaragua’s reason for not joining the Paris agreement is as a symbolic protest because they don’t think it is strong enough. It’s going to do tough reductions of emissions but not within the agreement.
Also, in the case of Syria then as the Washington Post put it: “Given the nature of the conflict during Paris negotiations, the Assad government was in no position to commit to limiting Syria's climate emissions.”
So really they are in a club of One.
His announcement was full of either confusion or spin. He doesn’t seem to understand that the Paris agreement is voluntary. The US set its own conditions. It doesn’t need to renegotiate to change its targets, just say it has set new targets for itself. The whole thing is voluntary.
He said he was acting for Pittsburgh rather than Paris. But Pittsburgh is one of many US states and cities that are involved in their own climate initiatives which they have the ability to do under the US constitution no matter what Trump says US as the whole is going to do. They aim to eliminate 1.3 million tons of CO2 emissions by 2023. It seems rather ironical that he would choose such a city as his named city in the speech, and say he is representing them by withdrawing from the Paris agreement. It’s no wonder that the Mayor of Pittsburgh tweeted his protest to that.
Another thing he didn't seem to have grasped is that a small change in global temperature is just the average temperature - it means parts of the world will get a lot hotter, sometimes also colder in winter, stronger storms, precipitation concentrated into fewer but stronger storms with longer droughts in between, much larger changes in the polar temperatures, rises in sea level, acidification of oceans etc - it's those things that the countries are concerned about. So, it's not the average temperature change as such which would be fairly small overall - but the effects of that change.on the climate which is why "climate change" is a better word than "global warming".
If he honestly doesn't understand that, then his grasp of what the climate change agreement is about is minimal. If he does understand that then it is spin.
The whole thing was an utter shambles, and showed no understanding of the Paris agreement. And he is opposed not just by all the other countries worldwide except Syria, but also, by heads of industry and many States and cities in his own country and some of his own administration and by many Republicans as well as Democrats.
US AS ONE OF THE COUNTRIES MOST AFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE
The strange thing is that the US is one of the countries likely to be most impacted by climate change, especially with the flooding, likely to affect New York, New Orleans, and Miami, and to put large areas of Florida under water. Potentially, 20 million US citizens may find their homes under water as a result of a 4 C rise. This is a middle of the range projection, conservative even. See my answer to If all the ice in the Antarctica melts, which countries in the world will be entirely covered in water? Also will be affected in many other ways including reduced crop yields, longer periods of drought and more severe storm damage.
In the US the main changes projected include: (quoting from the US Environmental Protection Agency report Future of Climate Change) -
Note that it doesn’t say that there will be more hurricanes. There’s too much uncertainty there - we may get more of them, or we may get the same amount or fewer. But the intensity of the hurricanes is likely to increase with a warmer ocean.
There they aren't saying that every summer from 2035 onwards will be as hot as the hottest 5% in the US for the period 1950-1979. Maybe summer 2035 turns out to be unusually cold in some of the runs of the model. But when they do the models many times, then by 2035-2064 then more than two thirds of the summers are so hot that back in 1950-1979 only one summer in twenty was that hot. So, if you get a cold summer, or a cold winter, or even a cold year, that doesn't mean the models are wrong. You need to take a longer term view than that.
You can also look up the effects for individual states, e.g. this climate change report for Nebraska
And this is the projection for New York city which experiences higher sea level rises than the global average:
New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report Executive Summary
Other projections include:
The US is also one of the countries that has most to gain from clean energy. And the agreement is voluntary, so the US could choose to commit as much or as little as it wanted to, which makes the talk about “renegotiating” puzzling.
ONLY A POLITICAL ISSUE NOW IN THE US
I go into the science in some detail here
Climate change is only a political left versus right issue in the US. Outside of the US, the political debate is over.
President Elect Trump - Why Climate Change Is No Longer A Political Issue Outside The US
As I say there - it was signed by our own Tory government - now headed by Theresa May, previously by David Cameron. It has support from governments of all political persuasions, unless you think Saudi Arabia, and Iran have left wing governments!
It also has support from the most capitalist countries as well as the most communist ones. This is the 2015 list of the most "economically free" countries. in the Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) annual survey by the Fraser Institute
They say
"The cornerstones of economic freedom are personal choice, voluntary exchange, freedom to enter markets and compete, and security of the person and privately owned property"
which sounds pretty much like the basics of capitalism. So they say that the ten most economically free countries are
"Hong Kong and Singapore, once again, occupy the top two positions. The other nations in the top 10 are New Zealand, Switzerland, United Arab Emirates, Mauritius, Jordan, Ireland, Canada, and the United Kingdom and Chile, tied for 10th."
All of those have now ratified the agreement.
GREEN CLIMATE FUND IS VOLUNTARY
The only financial commitment that the US had was to a fund to help poorer countries to develop their green energy solutions. But that also is a voluntary fund too. The US made the largest pledge, $3 billion of which it has paid around $1 billion so far. The UK, a much smaller country, pledged $1.2 billion and Japan pledged 1.5 billion, France and Germany also both pledged $1 billion - and the UK and Japan have both paid significant amounts into the fund so far.
The highest per capita pledge for this fund is from Sweden, pledging $60 per person and the UK has pledged £15 per person.
To see how voluntary it is - neither India nor China have put forward anything into it yet. The US could just say that they aren't going to put anything more into it, so joining China and India, and remain within the Paris agreement. None of this was imposed on the US by anyone else, indeed, the whole Paris agreement was instigated mainly by the US as one of the key players who got the ball rolling.
Reality Check: What do countries spend on climate fund? - BBC News
SEE ALSO
For the Green Climate Fund see Washington Post article: Perspective | Trump will stop paying into the Green Climate Fund. He has no idea what it is.
First, to summarize, I don’t think we should send scientists to the Mars surface right now, because they will bring Earth microbes with them. It is very easy to find life if you bring it yourself, ...
(more)First, to summarize, I don’t think we should send scientists to the Mars surface right now, because they will bring Earth microbes with them. It is very easy to find life if you bring it yourself, but that’s the last thing we want to do as it would obscure the search for past and present day life on Mars. But we can send humans to orbit and explore it telerobotically, or we can explore from Earth using robotic explorers as we do now. So how long would it take to do that? Well we might find life there right away with the first instrument we send to Mars able to detect life. We can’t rule that out yet, because we haven’t tried. There could be spores scattered through the Mars dust everywhere, hardy viable spores , or dead spores, just a few per kilogram of dust, and we just wouldn’t know yet. We could find that out with our first dedicated biological mission to Mars since Viking. Curiosity 2020 and ExoMars are more sensitive, especially ExoMars but they could still miss spores in the dust.
Or it may be really hard to find past or present day life there. So - a very rough estimate, maybe a decade, sending a dozen or so rovers and half a dozen orbiters every two years - to get a rough preliminary survey roughly similar to sending seven or eight rovers to each continent on Earth (the land area of Mars and Earth are similar). It would be more thorough if those rovers are very capable and able to travel hundreds of kilometers a day and with broadband communication back to Earth, all of which we could have in the 2020s potentially. But I’m basing that on hardly anything. As far as I know, nobody has tried to estimate this. It’s not even a “back of the envelope calculation”.
The robots can be either controlled from orbit, or very capable with autonomy, controlled from Earth. Controlled from orbit seems best but it’s hard to tell how much that would add to the cost. But scientists on the surface - well I don’t think we should do that at all, we should do the survey first, and then decide whether to send scientists to the surface after the first biological survey of Mars.
Many people assume, naturally enough, that we'd find life on Mars by searching for fossils. They search the rover images for fossils too. But we only had easy to spot fossils on Earth in the last 500 million years. Meanwhile places on Earth that are similar to the most habitable regions of present day Mars only have microbes and occasionally lichens.
So, Mars will only have easy to recognize fossils if it developed multicellular life at an early stage far faster than it developed on Earth. Mars could have the likes of microbial mats or stromatolites, but those are hard to distinguish from rock formations. So the search is likely to be done using ultra sensitive instruments able to detect the minutest traces of organics.
On Mars, unlike Earth, a single complex organic molecule could potentially be a major ground breaking discovery if you can prove it didn't come from Earth. And then we also have many potential habitats for present day life there too.
I should say for humans in space enthusiasts that this is not an argument against humans in space. I think humans can be of great value in space, on the Moon and in Mars orbit. See my Case for Moon First. I don’t think we should send humans to the Mars surface however, right now, and will explain why.
IN DETAIL
How long it would take would depend on how much we do. I think it’s hard to know if robotic exploration or human exploration would be faster. Humans in orbit around Mars could do it faster with fewer robots but at much greater expense. If you spent all the money you would on a human expedition on sending huge numbers of miniature rovers to Mars and setting up broadband communications, better autonomy, and artificial real time to control the rovers there from Earth, it might even cost less than a human expedition.
Hard to say which would do it faster. But probably human exploration mainly because we’d spend a lot more on it if we sent humans there because of the human interest. It’s all guesswork really as nobody has done a thorough comparison study. The main options are
If you kept the cost the same, then you’d have many more robots in the first case than in the second, and many more in the second than in the third, which makes it hard to compare them. Also humans on the surface have to put on their spacesuits to go anywhere, and that currently takes a whole day on the ISS to prepare for an EVA. And their gloves are clumsy, like wearing a hosepipe on your fingers, and rather painful to operate because of the pressure difference inside and out. And humans are not good at drilling in vacuum conditions of Mars, you can’t use water and we have self hammering moles that should be able to drill for hundreds of meters and then for kilometers on Mars.
However humans have the major drawback that they can’t be sterilized of microbes. They also have to live in spacecraft and habitats that are swarming with trillions of microbes - on their skin, in the air, in their food, the soil, everywhere.
For past life, we want to send instruments to Mars so sensitive they can detect a single amino acid in a one gram sample. We want to send DNA sequencers to search for DNA to see if it is DNA based. The ancient amino acids and any ancient RNA or DNA on Mars are going to be hard to find, because the surface radiation can destroy meters thickness of organics over billion year periods (it’s exponential so doesn’t have much effect on short timescales). Not only that, Mars also has a constant rain of organics from comets and meteorites. The organics Curiosity found so far they think come from meteorites, and the big surprise was that it didn’t find them sooner. There’s some process actively destroying it, probably the reactive surface chemistry. So you need to find organics that was buried deep enough to escape the surface radiation, so that means ideally ten meters, and at least 2 meters. It needs to have life in it, and not be mixed with the meteoritic organics, or any other organics produced by natural processes such a serpentization, asteroid impacts, volcanic processes and so on. It needs to have been unearthed rapidly (within a few million years and ideally faster). It also needs to have not been washed out by later flooding either. And then you are looking for degraded organics.
So we may well need all that sensitivity of our instruments to detect those organics and to solve the detective puzzle of whether it was originally life or not before the ionizing radiation and the natural radiation of the rocks over billions of years degraded it.
For present day life, we are searching for microbes that may be impossible to cultivate in vitrio (only 1% of Earth microbes can be cultivated, and on Mars we may be talking about a new form of life never encountered before). We can send microbial fuel cells that can detect just a few microbes - not even reproducing, just respiring. We can search for just a single amino acid in the sample once more, this time searching for present day life. We can use devices like Solid3 which uses polyclonal antibodies to detect life again in minute quantities.
So - can we do that with humans on the surface? It’s hard enough sterilizing a robot on Earth to send it to Mars and not risk contaminating it with Earth microbes. But what about a rover sent out from a habitat occupied by humans on Mars? Can they sterilize the rover, over and over, to such a level of sterilization that it can’t contaminate the samples even with a single amino acid? Or if the rover never comes back to base, what is the point in having humans on the surface? Why not have them in orbit? But the situation is worse than that, because the humans could crash - indeed, it’s one of the most risky missions we could attempt with humans in the near future.
Mars is most similar to our coldest driest deserts. But we have to think of these as analagous to the most habitable places on present day Mars. So if there is life there, it’s probably in tiny thin films of salty brine, or possibly fresh water trapped by ice. It’s likely to be very sparse - some places have it, others don’t, and just a few cells.
The very last thing we want is this -
Early artist’s impression of supersonic retropropulsion
followed by this:
The debris field for Space Shuttle Columbia, with a debris track around 350 miles long, and about fifty to a hundred miles wide (depending on whether you measure to the most distant debris). An accident, especially if it happened early during the supersonic retropropulsion entry to the Mars atmosphere, could scatter debris over a large area of Mars.
followed by this
This shows photographs taken by Opportunity during a dust storm from sols 1205 to 1236 (one month). Each horizon view has been compressed horizontally (but not vertically). By the end of this period it reached a visual optical depth tau 4.7 which means that 99% of the sunlight was blocked.
And this
Global Mars dust storm from 2001 Mars has local storms every two years, and from time to time it has larger global storms. The first global storm recorded is from 1873: the other ones reported were in 1909, 1924, 1956, 1971, 1973, 1975, 1977 (2 storms), 1982, and more recently in 1994, 2001 and 2007. So we get a global dust storm roughly every decade or so, though sometimes several per decade (five storms in the 1970s)..
After that, there could be microbes from Earth just about anywhere on Mars. The Mars dust storms can protect the spores from UV radiation, if hidden in a crack in a dust grain.
To get an idea of how vulnerable Mars habitats could be to modern Earth originated life, one possibility for Mars is an early life form. Like the hypothesis of a shadow biosphere, on Earth - the idea that RNA based life, or some other form that predated modern DNA life might still survive here to this day. So far nobody has found early pre-DNA life on Earth, which means it probably was made extinct by modern life. But Mars could have that “shadow biosphere”, and it could be vulnerable to whatever made it extinct on Earth.
NASA and others have the idea that they can land humans within a few kilometers of a place of interest such as a warm seasonal flow, send automated rovers up to it to examine it and bring back samples for them to study in their base and keep the contamination contained around their base.
From this 2015 report:
So their aim is to land humans on Mars and search for life with the idea that they are going to contaminate the planet, but that they will find out as much as they can about the life there before they do so.
I don’t think is the right way to do it myself. And that is not taking account of the possibility of a crash on Mars. When asked about that they just say “that’s for the mission planners to look into”.
It’s different for robotic missions. You have to look into the planetary contamination effects of a crash on Mars as part of your plans. But for humans, then it would be impossible to send humans to Mars if they did that, not if you want to avoid contaminating it with Earth microbes, so they just assume that the human occupied spacecraft won’t crash.
But we don’t yet have final conclusions about how to land humans on Mars consistent with planetary protection.
I think we should explore from Earth or from orbit around Mars, and leave decisions about whether to send humans to the surface to a later date.
So how long could it take to do that exploration? Well Mars is vast, same land area as Earth. Imagine doing a biological exploration of Earth, with one rover in each continent, with three of them able to travel 100 meters a day, kilometers total, another one (Sojourner) able to travel meters, and the rest stationary. And of all those, only two have had instruments that would let them detect life. And now you are exploring a planet that is entirely desert, no trees, no plants, no open water or streams or rivers. Yet with a varied landscape as varied as on Earth. And now, add to that, that there are only a few patches here and there that could have present day life, that most scientists think life is impossible everywhere else, (though some think it might just about be possible). That those habitats are, most of them, hidden in cracks or below the surface of rocks or a few cms below the surface of the soil or ice. And that though we have found some habitats that we think could have life in them, just possibly, we haven’t visited any of those yet. And add to it that we must not introduce Earth microbes to any of those habitats if we want to find the native life. And that there’s that constant rain of organics from comets and meteorites and the other issues with finding present day life.
As for past life, then we don’t know if it ever evolved. If it did, we don’t know if it evolved photosynthesis. It could be very localized, but if so, we don’t know where to look for it. Ancient hydrothermal vents perhaps? Ancient lake beds (but those become much less plausible if it didn’t evolve as far as photosynthesis). And then we have to find life that was buried rapidly and then unearthed rapidly first.
It could still be there today, but we have dozens of places we can look for it again.
It’s not easy. You wouldn’t expect to know much about it yet.
So - it’s hard to say. Some think Viking found life already, especially after the discovery of what seem to be circadian rhythms in the labeled release experiment data. If that is right, then the first mission to Mars that is able to duplicate the Viking experiment may find life there right away. There may be spores in the dust wherever our spacecraft have traveled on Mars - and we simply wouldn’t know yet. Because we haven’t sent any experiments since Viking sensitive enough to spot just a few spores in the dust.
Patterns characteristic of circadian rhythms in the Viking labeled release data. The interesting thing is that they are significantly offset from the temperature variations, which to an expert on circadian rhythms who spotted this, strongly suggested life rather than non life processes. More on this in the section Rhythms from Martian sands - what if Viking detected life? in my book, and following
If that’s right, we may find life there rapidly. Maybe ExoMars will find it, as it is much more sensitive to organics, though it doesn’t have the ability to put it in a nutrient like Viking and see if it respires.
But it might take a lot longer. I tried to get an idea of what is needed for a reasonably thorough first survey of the most interesting places on Mars, in my section: How many years are needed to do a biological survey of Mars?
For present day life we need to look at:
And if you drill deep enough you reach the hydrosphere, a theorized layer deep down where the rock gets hot enough to keep water liquid, and it’s trapped by the layers of rock above it. We find life on Earth in deep mines, so if there ever was life on Mars and it evolved far enough to colonize its hydrosphere, it’s probably still there as nothing has happened to Mars that could have made life in its hydrosphere extinct.
For past life we need to look at
Also just one of those sites may be as intricate as this
Chemical Alteration by Water, Mawrth Vallis (Mawrth Vallis is the second of the two landing sites selected for ExoMars. The first one is Oxia Planum).
And then you have to drill to depths of meters to find deposits that don’t have the ancient organics completely destroyed by ionizing radiation.
So - we might strike it lucky and find life early on. If Mars life evolved as far as photosynthesis and developed the robust spores of present day Earth life, perhaps it is in nearly all those habitats, both past and present, and if so, maybe we find it quite quickly. But if it didn’t evolve photosynthesis - well photosynthetic life doesn’t get transferred between planets as easily as some other forms of life - so maybe it hasn’t yet got photosynthesis to this day. If so, then life might be rare and hard to find.
The last chance for life to get from Earth to Mars was the Chicxulub impact 66 million years ago. The jury is out on whether it did or not. It has to withstand the shock of ejection from Earth, burning of the crust as it leaves Earth’s atmosphere, the vacuum of space for a century, but probably more, solar storms, impact on Mars and then find a habitat there. This is especially hard for photosynthetic life, both less impact resistant, and it also tends to be near the surface of the rock so would be burnt off.
It might not have happened for billions of years. The best time was soon after the formation of the Moon during the Late Heavy Bombardment - but was early life back then robust enough to withstand the passage to Mars or vice versa? At the present all options are open - closely related life, distantly related life, and life that’s a second genesis. Astrobiologists designing instruments for Mars do not assume that any life there is going to be DNA based. We might well send DNA sequencers there to try to sequence it - but it would be even more interesting if those sequencers don’t find any DNA.
Carl Sagan estimated 54 rovers on the surface and 30 orbiters as his idea of what was needed for a biological survey of Mars. It was just figures he plucked from the air for a calculation. But nobody has come up with any better figure since then. He wrote that in the mid 1960s. His idea of a biological experiment on Mars was crude by modern standards of course. But he also assumed a much more hospitable Mars than we now understand it to be.
Perhaps it’s not a bad estimate even now for a first attempt at a biological survey of Mars. If you compare it with Earth’s continents, it’s like sending 7 - 8 rovers to each continent. If you think in terms of the Mars habitats, it’s enough to send a couple of rovers to each type of habitat of interest, past or present. If we can make the rovers mobile and semi-autonomous able to travel hundreds of kilometers a day, it would make a huge difference. If we have broadband communication back from Mars to Earth it would also make a huge difference. I don’t think many people have really taken that into account yet as we have no experience yet of exploring even the Moon with broadband communications - even the Apollo missions weren’t quite like that.
When we get a broadband connection to Mars in the 2020s, this will change things dramatically. With a bandwidth of hundreds of gigabytes a day, we will be able to download 3D landscapes from Mars dozens of times a day. These will be so detailed that anyone on Earth can study rocks close to the rover, not just in 3D, but with the ability to zoom right in to observe them in microscopic detail.
We have never had that capability before and I think it’s hard to know what a difference it will make. Same also for the ideas of microrovers. When we can send dozens, even hundreds of micro rovers in a single mission to Mars, what difference will that make? Even without humans in orbit to direct them?
Now, I don’t think that 54 microrovers in a single mission will let us do a complete biological survey of Mars, even a first try at one. We have to send them to all those different habitats, they have to be capable of drilling at least 2 meters and better, 10 meters for the search for past life and we need multiple detection methods for present day life to back each other up. 54 highly capable rovers dedicated to a biological survey maybe? We also can’t do it all in one mission because later ones will build up on earlier ones.
My conclusion to that section was:
“I wouldn't like to estimate how long such a vigorous program of exploration would take. But on the face of it, it seems more like years than decades. At a dozen rovers and half a dozen orbiters sent every two years, it would take about decade, based on that number of fifty four landers which we rather "plucked from the air" for illustrative purposes”
It needs a proper study but nobody has done one as far as I know. Nor do we have any attempts at a comparison study of robots controlled from Earth with telerobots and humans in terms of cost effectiveness - except the HERRO one - which was done by researchers keen on telerobotics, but with old data now, as telerobotics has moved on since then.
Anyway to find out more see my online and kindle book
OK to Touch Mars? Europa? Enceladus? Or a Tale of Missteps?
(It is still work in progress. I got caught up with other things but plan to return to it to finish it soon).
See also my wikipedia articles:
Modern Mars habitability - Wikipedia
Present day Mars habitability analogue environments on Earth - Wikipedia
It’s probably habitable to microbes, and there are many microbes already known that will be able to survive on Mars if those habitats exist there. Here is the article I wrote for wikipedia about it...
(more)It’s probably habitable to microbes, and there are many microbes already known that will be able to survive on Mars if those habitats exist there. Here is the article I wrote for wikipedia about it, which has loads of cites to follow up to find more: Modern Mars habitability See the section Candidate lifeforms for Mars
It’s not at all habitable to humans. There’s no oxygen to breathe for a starter. The 24 hour day is not much of an advantage when it gets so cold at night for carbon dioxide to freeze out as frost even for 100 days of the year in the equatorial regions. The air is so thin you need a full body pressure suit to survive or the moisture in your lungs would boil as would your saliva and the moisture on your eyes - and those don’t come cheap, current cost is millions of dollars and they only last a few EVAs before they have to be repaired and eventually replaced.
And - as far as economics is concerned, the Moon wins over Mars all the way. See my:
With the big advantage that it is close to Earth and not in the deep gravity well of Mars, only double the gravity but it’s much more in effect on the cost because of the rocket equation and because also the Moon is always the same distance from Earth and you can get back in two days. With Hoyt’s cislunar tether system you could export to Earth without using fuel at all.
Robert Zubrin has one possible export, apart form ideas, his deuterium exports - it doesn’t work out if you look into it in detail. It would make no economic sense to make deuterium on Mars which is only slightly concentrated relative to Earth - it would save only one step of the many used in a deuterium factory on Earth as they repeatedly concentrate it.
As for intellectual property as a source of income - well that works as well or not on the Moon, if people need to be somewhere challenging, but I find that totally unconvincing, the trade of intellectual property would be the other way. I cover that in my
There’s nothing valuable there that is worth the cost of exporting back to Earth that we know of. The only way to live there is in a habitat that is built to hold in the tons per square meter of outwards pressure of your air. None of our crops can grow there, nor can trees. The air is too thin for fresh water on the surface. There may be some seeps of millimeters thick layers of salty water and just possibly centimeters thick fresh water at the poles. It has ice but not much, only at its poles - Antarctica would be a paradise on Mars and has far more ice than the whole of Mars.
Some lichens might be able to survive in cracks in the rocks on Mars, and there may be lichens there already for all we know.
Indeed, if you compare the habitability of the Moon and of Mars, then the Moon wins over Mars in one comparison after another. By coincidence its axis is almost vertical, and some of the peaks near its poles get sunlight 24/7 and almost all year round apart from a couple of days or so, almost constant temperature too. It probably has vast amounts of ice, hundreds of millions of tons at the poles - we don’t know for sure because we know so little about the Moon. It’s not been studied in anything like the detail of Mars yet, apart from those short visits in the 1960s to 1970s with the technology of their day which only went to its equatorial regions. It also has caves we now know, though we don’t know how large, but could be kilometers in diameter in its low gravity.
Lots of other advantages but this is an answer about Mars so I’ll just link to my Case For Moon First
Now, Mars is of great interest scientifically, and it was far more habitable in the past. It had oceans, and later on lakes, had a comparatively thick atmosphere. The oceans and lakes may have been frozen over but we don’t really know in detail yet. It might be our first chance to actually study present day living extraterrestrial microbes.
This life could be vulnerable to Earth life. For instance there must have been some form of life on Earth before DNA life but nobody knows what it was. What if that life is still there on Mars? It’s not so impossible as some biologists have hypothesized it could still be here on Earth as a “Shadow biosphere”. We haven’t found it and probably DNA based life made it extinct. But what if it is still there on Mars? Then it would be vulnerable to whatever made it extinct on Earth.
Then - Mars is globally connected, the dust storms carry small particles throughout Mars every few years. Also humans landing on Mars could easily crash as with the space shuttle disasters - and leave debris spread over hundreds of kilometers of the Mars surface. It’s probably the most dangerous landing in our inner solar system, more dangerous than landing on Earth. So - think what the microbes from such a crash could do to any native Mars life?
I think we should send humans to the Moon first, and then to Mars orbit, and study Mars from orbit via telepresence. Then decide what to do next based on what we find out about Mars. It’s far too soon to say what effect humans on Mars would have on the planet. And it’s not a “des res” for humans.
For more on this see my
Well Buddha when asked questions like this remained silent. This is a very short passage on the topic:
(more)Then the wanderer Vacchagotta went to the Blessed One and, on arrival, exchanged courteous gree...
Well Buddha when asked questions like this remained silent. This is a very short passage on the topic:
Then the wanderer Vacchagotta went to the Blessed One and, on arrival, exchanged courteous greetings with him. After an exchange of friendly greetings & courtesies, he sat to one side. As he was sitting there he asked the Blessed One: "Now then, Venerable Gotama, is there a self?"
When this was said, the Blessed One was silent.
"Then is there no self?"
A second time, the Blessed One was silent.
Then Vacchagotta the wanderer got up from his seat and left.
Then, not long after Vacchagotta the wanderer had left, Ven. Ananda said to the Blessed One, "Why, lord, did the Blessed One not answer when asked a question by Vacchagotta the wanderer?"
"Ananda, if I — being asked by Vacchagotta the wanderer if there is a self — were to answer that there is a self, that would be conforming with those brahmans & contemplatives who are exponents of eternalism [the view that there is an eternal, unchanging soul]. If I — being asked by Vacchagotta the wanderer if there is no self — were to answer that there is no self, that would be conforming with those brahmans & contemplatives who are exponents of annihilationism [the view that death is the annihilation of consciousness]. If I — being asked by Vacchagotta the wanderer if there is a self — were to answer that there is a self, would that be in keeping with the arising of knowledge that all phenomena are not-self?"
"No, lord."
"And if I — being asked by Vacchagotta the wanderer if there is no self — were to answer that there is no self, the bewildered Vacchagotta would become even more bewildered: 'Does the self I used to have now not exist?'"
Meditations on non self can be a great help to a practitioner on the path. But if you turn it into a doctrine or theory, or dogma, it’s likely to become an obstacle. If you come to believe you’ve “understood non self” and maybe back that up with some unusual spiritual experience that you take to be “realization of non self” then it could really hinder things and make it hard to practice as a Buddhist. You would then be strongly supporting this notion of being a being who has “realized non self” which if you think about it is a rather paradoxical position to be in. But even if you spot that it can be very hard to do anything about it. You can get amused by it, laugh at yourself and then say to yourself “Look, I’ve laughed at my own “realization of non self” so I must have realized it properly now” so just at one level after another you’ll find it still becomes a kind of acquisition you use, to build up your sense of self as an important being who has realized something few others have realized. This is what Trungpa Rinpoche devoted his “Cutting through Spiritual Materialism” book to, and I recommend you read it.
This is where it really helps to have a teacher. Especially if they have a good connection with the lineage of teachers themselves. That can give you confidence in them, but generally anyone who is not yourself, even if others don’t see what you see in them, but someone you respect, someone who you see as wise, not a guru, doesn’t have to be that, just someone who is not you, who you feel has some insight they are helping you with. So the teacher is of great value, and having some kind of personal connection with them. Then they can help you lighten up on such things in ways you just can’t do if you try to go it alone and do it all yourself.
This is true in Therevadhan Buddhism too. However I’ve had teachings on this mainly in the Tibetan Buddhist traditions, and I recommend Cutting Through Spiritual Materialism. Others will surely have other recommendations.
Of course it’s fine to have theories about atman, about self, about not having a self, etc. etc. But you asked what Buddhists say, and this is a sutra cite from Buddha himself, and from the oldest Pali sutras common to all the branches of Buddhism that treat the Pali canon as authentic. So I think you can say that for those branches of Buddhism at least, that’s what they would say to someone who asked “is it this” or “is it that” asking them to accept or deny various theories or doctrines about self and non self. At least - if you go to the teachers who have thoroughly studied the sutras, this is what they are going to say.
This is Trungpa Rinpoche’s book - on this general thing about how you deal with our tendency to try to make and acquire various ideas and spiritual experiences and attainments.
For a Therevadhan approach, see Thanissaro Bhikkhu’s Translator’s Introduction to the Avyakata Samyutta and Walpola Rahula’s “What the Buddha Taught”.
Actually, there’s a proposal to call it a “planet moon”. A geophysical planet definition. The idea is that any object large enough to self gravitate in a rounded equilibrium shape would count as a ...
(more)Actually, there’s a proposal to call it a “planet moon”. A geophysical planet definition. The idea is that any object large enough to self gravitate in a rounded equilibrium shape would count as a planet - moons as well as planets. So Pluto, Charon, Ceres, Europa, Ganymede, Callisto, Io, Titan, Enceladus, etc etc would all count because they are all rounded under gravity. We’d then have over 110 planets or planet moons in our own solar system, which, given the variety in these various objects, I think is a better way to think about it myself.
If it orbits another planet then it’s a “planet moon.” (Technically, if the center of gravity of the system, its barycenter, is within another planet). So our Moon would be a planet moon, and Ganymede, Callisto, Titan etc. Pluto and Charon have their barycenter outside of Pluto so it would be a double planet system.
I think that would be a good idea myself. It’s sometimes called the eighth continent. If we called it a continent it would be the second largest after Asia. It’s huge and far more interesting than we realized a few decades ago and it’s barely explored, probable ice at the poles, may have caves kilometers in diameter in the low gravity, and it may well have metals such as platinum far easier to extract than on an asteroid.
We just don’t know - there is so much we don’t know about it. Maybe we’d pay more attention to this “planet moon?” on our doorstep if we called it a planet.
Our Moon is also the only planetary surface (if we call it a planet) with mountains that receive sunlight 24/7, because its axis happens to e almost perpendicular to the ecliptic by a strange coincidence. This is great for solar power and keeping a steady temperature and those poles are just next to the craters that may have large volumes of ice deposits.
That’s where ESA plan to start an international lunar village some time in the mid 2020s.
Perhaps there will be more interest in the Moon after the Google X prize competition robots get there later this year or perhaps next year if they don’t make it this year. And Astrobiotic, due for their first launch in 2018, hope to set up a regular “FedEx” style delivery to the Moon of robotic landers and anything else you want to put on its surface.
The main objection seems to be that there would be too many planets - but nobody says there are too many galaxies, or stars, or asteroids, or comets. We’d still have the four gas giants, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune, the four terrestrial dwarf planets Mars, Earth, Venus and Mercury - and then we’d have over 100 subdwarf planets and planet moons. You wouldn’t expect to learn all those, of course. But our Moon would be one of them.
Interestingly the Moon's orbit is nowhere concave towards the Sun - it's a big very rounded dodecagon orbit around the Sun.
See also my
You are may be thinking about Projective geometry and parallel lines here. So - that parallel lines meet at infinity - not perpendicular lines, as they meet at their point of intersection in the pl...
(more)You are may be thinking about Projective geometry and parallel lines here. So - that parallel lines meet at infinity - not perpendicular lines, as they meet at their point of intersection in the plane. So, I’m going to assume you mean “parallel lines” in my answer. You may know that when an artist draws a railway line going off to infinity they add a “point at infinity”, or “vanishing point”
Vanishing point, eastern Montana by Roy Luck, on Flickr
So - this theory adds a “line at infinity” to two dimensional Euclidean geometery, and then parallel lines are said to intersect on that line. The result is mathematically elegant because then any two points determine a line and any two lines determine a point.
Indeed there’s an interesting symmetry in the axioms and proofs of projective geometry - what mathematicians call a “duality”. Any theorem about points and lines remains true if you swap points and lines all the way through it. So it’s a neat theory with elegant proofs, which turns into Euclidean geometry when you remove that hypothetical line at infinity, It leads to surprising connections between mathematical proofs in geometry. This shows how the duality works:
Here a “complete quadrangle” is a set of four points with no three on the same line, and all the lines that pass through them. A “complete quadrilateral” is a sot of four lines, no three of which pass through the same point, together with all the points resulting from their intersections.
When you change lines to points and vice versa, then the definition of a quadrangle turns into a definition of a quadrilateral. More generally any theorem in projective geometery about quadrangles will also be true about quadrilaterals if you change points to lines and vice versa all the way through the proof. And more generally any definition, proof or theorem remains valid when you interchange lines with points and vice versa.
In this figure, each red point on the left turns into a red line on the right and each blue line turns into a red point when you do the duality. So, for example, a result about four points determining lines (as in the left hand diagram) becomes a result about four points determining lines (as in the right hand diagram).
You can visualize this line at infinity as a kind of circle at infinity - but there is one difference from the artist’s line or plane at infinity. It’s a strange circle because an artist would normally think of a railway line as having two “vanishing points because it vanishes to infinity in both directions. Normally you would only photograph it in one direction at a time but you’d think the opposite directions as two distinct points.
However to get the duality of projective geometery to work, we need two parallel lines intersect at only one point. To make that work, we need to identify opposite points as being the “same point”.
So it’s really a half circle, with the second half of the circle being treated as the first half traced again. But you call it a straight line in projective geometry. When you do that the result is a very elegant mathematical theory.
There’s another way to think of it is as the lines through the origin in 3D - which you treat as the points.
Here is an introduction to projective geometry.
This is the wikipedia article, but many of their articles on geometry are rather technical to the extent it’s often hard to know what they are saying unless you are a mathematician already somewhat familiar with the subject: Line at infinity.
You can do the same thing in three dimensions, this time the geometry has points, lines and planes. It relates to artistic drawings in full 3D with vanishing points in all directions. It’s related to the informal geometry that artists work with when they draw shapes with parallel lines in any direction, not just horizontal lines, with multiple vanishing points not just around the horizon but in any direction, above or below as well as around the horizon.
This time, to describe the geometry in an axiom system like Euclidean geometry, you’d start with 3D Euclidean geometry with its lines, planes and points, but to complete it you now need to add a Plane at infinity. That then works the same way as the line at infinity that you have to identify opposite points to make the duality work. For instance if you use a vanishing point at infinity vertically upwards, then you identify it as the same point as the vanishing point vertically downwards.
3D projective geometry can get a bit mind boggling even for those used to 2D projective geometry. You can think of as being like a sphere at infinity with opposite points identified, but in 3D projective geometry it’s called a plane. This time it’s not points and lines that are dual, rather, points and planes . Any two planes determine a line, and any two points determine a line - so two parallel planes will determine a line at infinity, just as in 2D projective geometry two parallel lines determine a point at infinity. Two of those lines at infinity will intersect at a point at infinity too, so you need not just a line and points at infinity - you need a plane at infinity with lines and points in it.
It’s not used as much as 2D projective geometry, but it’s elegant too.
See also:
Plane Projective Geometry (online book)
Well as Buddhists following the path, then we get teachings both ways. To encourage us, the teaching that we are all Buddha if we could but see it, and that to be awakened is easier than to be unaw...
(more)Well as Buddhists following the path, then we get teachings both ways. To encourage us, the teaching that we are all Buddha if we could but see it, and that to be awakened is easier than to be unawakened, and that to a Buddha we are all Buddha already.
However that’s likely to make us lazy “I’m Buddha already nothing to do, so why bother doing anything?”. So then there are the teachings on how rare it is and how precious to be a human, to have a teaching we can follow like this, to have taken birth at a time when there are such teachings and a path to follow. For instance, the teaching of the turtle and the yoke:
“"Monks, suppose that this great earth were totally covered with water, and a man were to toss a yoke with a single hole there. A wind from the east would push it west, a wind from the west would push it east. A wind from the north would push it south, a wind from the south would push it north. And suppose a blind sea-turtle were there. It would come to the surface once every one hundred years. Now what do you think: would that blind sea-turtle, coming to the surface once every one hundred years, stick his neck into the yoke with a single hole?"
"It would be a sheer coincidence, lord, that the blind sea-turtle, coming to the surface once every one hundred years, would stick his neck into the yoke with a single hole."
"It's likewise a sheer coincidence that one obtains the human state. It's likewise a sheer coincidence that a Tathagata, worthy & rightly self-awakened, arises in the world. It's likewise a sheer coincidence that a doctrine & discipline expounded by a Tathagata appears in the world. Now, this human state has been obtained. A Tathagata, worthy & rightly self-awakened, has arisen in the world. A doctrine & discipline expounded by a Tathagata appears in the world.
"Therefore your duty is the contemplation, 'This is stress... This is the origination of stress... This is the cessation of stress.' Your duty is the contemplation, 'This is the path of practice leading to the cessation of stress.'"”
So that’s a common meditation in Buddhist traditions - to contemplate the value of this life.
So in a way yes you are Buddha, so is everyone, so are tiny insects, at least in the teachings of some of the schools of Buddhism. And in all the schools we all have that connection to awakening. There is no being that hasn’t got that potential to wake up - and if so - then where is the difference between that maybe far future when they are Buddha and the present?
The whole thing is really rather like a Zen koan. If one could understand this, or relate directly to it, if one didn’t have it as a question, I think one would be awakened and Buddha.
So for anyone to say that you aren’t Buddha is to be overly discouraging, but to say you are Buddha is to promote laziness. No-one else can know anyway, unless they are Buddha already in which case then at least according to some of the schools they will already see you as Buddha.
However to be Buddha is to realize cessation of all unsatisfactoriness. To relate to the flowing changing nature of things, to impermanence, to losing things, to things breaking, to death, to everything falling apart - and - not that you are numb to all that, it’s not that you are able to block off feeling so that everything is kind of dim and clouded - that’s sleeping, trying to sleep your life away, not waking up. But rather to open out to it.
To be able to connect to all that in the innermost most softest gentle part of your being. Trungpa Rinpoche once described the Buddhist path as like swallowing a baby porcupine, to take something spiny and sharp into the most sensitive part of your body, as something you open out to with tenderness and loving kindness. Are you doing that? In every moment of your life? We all have that capability, indeed, we already all are that. When they say we are all Buddha already, it’s like that
Well, I’d have a listen to teachers in many traditions if you can, and find out what best suits you. But in Australia you do have the monks of the Santi Forest Monastery in a Therevadhan tradition ...
(more)Well, I’d have a listen to teachers in many traditions if you can, and find out what best suits you. But in Australia you do have the monks of the Santi Forest Monastery in a Therevadhan tradition from Thailand, I’ve read some of their scholarly writings on the Buddhist sutras, and they are very good. I’d be sure to go and listen to them if there are any near where you live in Australia.
You don’t have to be a monk to practice as a Buddhist. I’d go to some teachings and find out about Buddhism first from the teachers themselves. They can tell you how to set about this. Also - though many do take it as a lifetime commitment, you can also become a novice monk for a short period of time. In some traditions of Buddhism, that’s commonly done and gives you a connection to the path of a bikkhu. In all the traditions (AFAIK) you can return your robes at any time if you decide the path is not for you, just by saying to anyone who is able to understand what you say that you return the robes.
There’s a much earlier thing you can do to affirm your connection and your wish to follow the Buddhist path, the refuge ceremony. That is just a way to say publicly that this is the path you wish to follow. And many people also take the five precepts of not killing, not lying, not stealing, to avoid sexual misconduct, and to avoid excessive intoxicants (some read that as to avoid intoxicants altogether). Those are the lay precepts.
Oh, reincarnation is not one of the unanswerable questions. Buddha is mentioned in the sutras as saying things about his own previous lives and previous lives about others as well. And when people ...
(more)Oh, reincarnation is not one of the unanswerable questions. Buddha is mentioned in the sutras as saying things about his own previous lives and previous lives about others as well. And when people died, he often said things about their next lives too, and said things about the effects on their future lives.
So that’s different from the unanswerable questions where he just said nothing in response.
As an example, there’s the story of Pukkusati who met the Buddha, not knowing who he was, and had a long conversation with him, at the end of which he asked to become a monk. Buddha said that first he needed to find a begging bowl and robes and when he went off to find these, he got gored by a cow (that’s Pukkusāti in the Dhātuvibhanga Sutta). Then Buddha’s companions asked him what happened to Pukkusati after he died and Buddha explains that he has taken birth in a pure land.
There are differing teachings about what a pure land is, as I was taught then this is not really a heavenly state - it’s not just a place where you experience nothing but bliss. That by itself wouldn’t make it a pure land, just a fortunate rebirth which gives you a holiday for a while within Samsara. As I understand it, a pure land is rather a rebirth in which everything you encounter bears the message of the path of the Buddha (for some practitioners this very life can become a pure land in that sense). Anyway, he said that he will take a rebirth in which everything he encounters is part of the path of the Buddha and then that he would realize Nirvana in his next life in that place.
However, though he often said things like this, he didn’t say that we should blindly accept what he says on those matters, or anyone else, either. Rather it’s the idea that at some point we’d be able to see such things for ourselves. But such things are extremely hidden. They aren’t impossible to see or things that are unanswerable like the unanswered questions. But they are very hidden for most of us.
Still, I think it does help to think in terms of these vast timescales and ideas of past and future lives. Not as a creed, but rather as something to help open our minds to possibilities. That’s because you are pretty much bound to have some views about what happens when you die, even if unexamined. Even to have a view “I don’t know” it is still a view. I think that goes both ways - if you belong to a culture where past and future lives are taken for granted, still, it can be useful to recognize clearly the basis for that view - to say “I believe that because I’ve been told it by my parents or because of my faith in the sutras” or whatever it is and to recognize “I don’t know this from my own experience”.
And to have an open mind about things you don’t know. For instance, however much ones faith in the sutras, it might be that ones understanding of them is a simplification, that one is missing some subtlety in the ideas. It might be that Buddha would have taught in different ways to present day Buddhists. The Kalama sutra suggests that the path is one where you recognize clearly what you know and what you don’t know. Including things that seem logical or accord with ones own preferences, to examine them on the basis of your own experience, especially the results of putting them into practice, and on the basis of the advice of wise friends.
So, these vast timescales I think help with patience along the path, make it easier to relax, to have some sense of humour about oneself.
But if you have too much focus on that you can be lazy. But meanwhile there are things one can see far more easily than this, such as the reality of suffering, and that even the most blissful states, including the most refined meditative states, don’t last for ever. These are things that can be easy to see, and recognizing impermanence too. Many Buddhists would say that this is where we should start, and that’s how Buddha taught the four Truths, at least as presented in the sutras, to start with the truth of Dukkha of suffering but also of impermanence of even some of the greatest forms of bliss and even higher states than bliss possible from meditation.
And - I see the teachings on rebirth as not so much as a dogma, as an interesting world view that can help one to be more open minded about what one knows and doesn’t know about what happens after one dies or happened before one was born. Because we nearly all have world views about what happens when we die, hard not to have some such, from our parents, our culture, our friends etc. So it’s like that, another world view that may be helpful to consider as a possibility, given that we are bound to have one anyway.
And meanwhile the sutras also do have stories in both directions. Many stories about followers of the Buddha who became arhats in that very lifetime. Also in the Mahayana traditions many such stories. So with that vast timescale, it’s still possible that for some this may be the very life in which they finally wake up :).
Well there are formal vows you can take, that you are going to follow the bodhisattva path. But that’s not really what makes you a bodhisattva. More exactly it makes you an “aspiring bodhisattva” w...
(more)Well there are formal vows you can take, that you are going to follow the bodhisattva path. But that’s not really what makes you a bodhisattva. More exactly it makes you an “aspiring bodhisattva” who is trying to follow the bodhisattva path and has the aspiration to become a bodhisattva and is going to keep trying and pick yourself up when you fall.
Many Mahayana Buddhists have taken those vows and so are aspiring bodhisattvas. The vows though are interpreted in a soft way - you have to be kind to yourself, they aren’t ideals, as you could never measure up to them. They aren’t things you have to force yourself to do or they’d be impossible. They are aspirations.
Meanwhile a Therevadhan Buddhist might not have taken those vows at all, and yet be linking to true compassion and loving kindness in a genuine way in their practice.
To truly be a bodhisattva, the main thing is putting others before yourself. I don’t think that the conceptual overlay of thinking in terms of buddhahood, enlightenment, etc really is that important. If it was you could only be a bodhisattva if you were a Buddhist, but for instance the past stories of the previous lives of the Buddha talk about him being a bodhisattva as an animal.
Also Buddhists often talk about non Buddhists as showing the compassion of a bodhisattva.
So, I think it’s really just this matter of others first. And it’s not something you can prove to anyone else, if you are doing it to try to prove that you are a bodhisattva then chances are that actually you are putting yourself first :).
It’s also rather simple. The bodhisattva path as described in Buddhist texts often seems totally impossible, it’s like an ideal that you could never imagine ever reaching. Especially also when they talk about bodhisattvas having remarkable powers too. But being able to do things that are close to miraculous is not what bodhicitta is about. Rather it is a miracle, yes, but an ordinary miracle, that anyone can link to, but few do, of turning around, and putting others before themselves.
Mothers often do this with their children. And most people will if they are in a situation that somehow touches them. With a bodhisattva though, it’s like that with all beings, no matter how awful they are, or ugly, or disgusting - you aren’t judging them to see if they are good enough, or closely related enough to you, or cute enough, to be recipients of your compassion :). That’s the main difference really.
Also it’s not about helping large numbers of people. You don’t have to go to Africa or Syria or some trouble spot to try to help the people there. Of course some who do will be bodhisattvas, but you don’t have to do dramatic things like that. Just in ordinary situations. Could be a nurse, could be a teacher, a pop singer, someone in a band, an artist, a gardener, just doing their thing, but they have this turned around, putting others first. In ways that may be totally invisible to others too. They could be harsh, abrasive, difficult characters sometimes, that you want to help others doesn’t necessarily mean that you make things easy for them!
So, it’s my understanding that there may be many bodhisattvas, and I may meet them every day, and I wouldn’t know about it.
So when you ask “How does one become a bodhisattva”, that seems like a wish to become a bodhisattva and if so that’s a very positive thing to wish for.
So, there isn’t really anything you can do to become a bodhisattva instantly on the spot. You can’t take a vow and instantly on the spot you are a bodhisattva. But you can aspire to it, and you can take the bodhisattva vow as part of that aspiration, which of course is an aspiration for all beings not just for yourself. And some may be bodhisattvas already.
In Tibetan Buddhism at least they teach that there are three main styles of bodhisattava, the “King bodhisattva” who wants to help all beings, but decides that the only way they can do that is to work on themselves first, they are acutely aware of how their mistakes hurt others and feel they have to work on themselves first before they can help, then the “Ferryman bodhisattva” who help themselves and others together, and the “Shepherd bodhisattva” who gives no thought to themselves at all and is just doing what they can to help others with all their flaws, as is. This is not really something they can choose between, and is rather part of the situation they find themselves in. It’s not that one is “higher” than the others it’s just the way it is.
You can’t really tell which they are by their behaviour either - a bodhisattva could do a long meditation retreat for instance to work on themselves as a king bodhisattva, or it could be something they feel is helping themselves and all others together, or it could be that they have no thought for themselves at all and are doing the retreat because they feel this is what they can best do to help others at that moment in time. That’s an idea we don’t really have so much in the West, that by meditating, you aren’t really separating yourself away from the world, but are part of it, in a way as you meditate it’s like all beings and the non material world too are joining in that meditation. So a bodhisattva can meditate only for the benefit of others if they are doing it as a shepherd bodhisattva.
There are meditations you can do to help to open out to others and develop loving kindness and compassion. The wish to become a bodhisattva by itself is seen as something very positive. Indeed Tibetan Buddhists often make the prayer: “may the precious bodhicitta be born where it has not yet taken birth, where it has been born may it not fade but grow and grow.” It’s common to make that prayer at the end of every meditation as s dedication.
There “bodhicitta” means the wish to help all beings.
JANGCHUB SEMNI RINPOCHE
MACHEY PA NAM CHEYJUR CHIG
CHEYPA NYAMPA MAY PA DANG
GONGNAY GONGDU PELWA SHOG
= dedication prayer often made at the end of a meditation in Tibetan traditions: ““may the precious bodhicitta be born where it has not yet taken birth, where it has been born may it not fade but grow and grow.”
Mani Wall in Zanskar The text is Tibetan for Om Mani Padme Hung which you can translate as “Hail to the jewel in the lotus” which is a mantra for compassion and bodhicitta.
Normally no, don’t try it! With many trains you have almost no chance at all.
Some trains have more clearance, and you might survive, here’s an example, where someone did it, with a very slow moving...
(more)Normally no, don’t try it! With many trains you have almost no chance at all.
Some trains have more clearance, and you might survive, here’s an example, where someone did it, with a very slow moving train, but notice the bits hanging down under the train:
LiveLeak.com - Having fun under the train
You could have something that’s hanging down like that just where you are and of course, you can’t get out of the way.
And if there are no stones between the sleepers, and you are very short, a child, you could lie between the sleepers. But these children were playing Russian Roulette as well, as there could be something dangling beneath the train. Don’t do it!
If the only way out of a situation is to lie between the tracks, perhaps caught in a tunnel with two trains passing in opposite directions or single track rail, it’s maybe worth a try, but your chances aren’t that good. Best not to get into that situation.
“Are trains designed such that if a person were about to get run over, he could lie flat between the tracks and avoid death as the train passed over him?”
“In much the same way that every chandelier is deliberately engineered to support the weight of an adult male swinging from it by one hand while firing an automatic weapon with the other. Which is to say: only in the movies.”
If You Laid Down Between the Tracks, Would a Train Pass Right Over You?
Also for anyone considering doing this - give some thought to the train driver - think what it must be like to see someone lying on the track, and knowing there is no way you can stop your train in time to avoid hitting them.
Best kept to movie sets I think.
Well actually the most important thing when looking for teachers is how you and they work together rather than what their qualities are. You might find the most compassionate teacher in the world, ...
(more)Well actually the most important thing when looking for teachers is how you and they work together rather than what their qualities are. You might find the most compassionate teacher in the world, but it could be that what you need right now is an abrasive teacher who helps you learn patience, or cuts through nonsense so you start actually connecting to the truth. The path of the Buddha is connecting to the truth whatever it is. There’s a good passage in this translator’s introduction to the Kalama sutra - the sutra itself is rather long and easily misunderstood.
“ Although this discourse is often cited as the Buddha's carte blanche for following one's own sense of right and wrong, it actually says something much more rigorous than that. Traditions are not to be followed simply because they are traditions. Reports (such as historical accounts or news) are not to be followed simply because the source seems reliable. One's own preferences are not to be followed simply because they seem logical or resonate with one's feelings. Instead, any view or belief must be tested by the results it yields when put into practice; and — to guard against the possibility of any bias or limitations in one's understanding of those results — they must further be checked against the experience of people who are wise. The ability to question and test one's beliefs in an appropriate way is called appropriate attention. The ability to recognize and choose wise people as mentors is called having admirable friends. According to Iti 16-17, these are, respectively, the most important internal and external factors for attaining the goal of the practice. “
So the interesting thing there is - that you test them by the results they yield when put into practice. That’s about any teachings, including also teachers too. And not based on whether they seem logical or resonate with one’s feelngs.
“One's own preferences are not to be followed simply because they seem logical or resonate with one's feelings. “
So if you are working with a teacher, and you feel that it is leading you towards the truth, understanding, compassion, well then that teaching is working for you. Maybe everyone else says they are an awful teacher. Maybe they have a bad reputation. Maybe they have even done things that are against the law, or breaking the Buddhist precepts. Maybe your teacher isn’t a Buddhist - there’s no reason why they have to be, that you are on the Buddhist path, doesn’t mean that your teachers have to be Buddhists. Because Buddha gave this advice to look for teachings anywhere where it helps you. At some point the whole world may be your teacher, always bringing the messages of the dharma.
That’s also why nobody else can say to you “I am your teacher” in this sense. They may feel they are doing just great, teaching you what you need, but if you don’t have that connection from your side, if they are not giving you a connection to truth, to compassion, loving kindness, to wisdom, not in the intellectual sense but in the sense of a grounding, connection to truth, opening out to possibilities, not easily deluded - if they aren’t connecting you to all that then - though they may be giving you a connection with the words of the Buddha, they are not really truly teaching you Buddha’s teachings.
And your true teachers may never know that they were your teachers either. There are plenty of stories of that type.
So, - it really doesn’t matter if your teacher appears to be the most compassionate person in the world or to lack compassion completely. What matters is whether you feel that you are making a connection with compassion as a result of working with them. This is where beginner meditators looking for a good teacher often go wrong. They go around looking for a teacher who seems compassionate, has a good reputation, lots of students, and who gives them rare and unusual teachings. They never stop to think and examine what effect all of this is having on themselves and whether this is someone who is teaching in a way that actually helps them to connect to compassion, or wisdom or to be grounded in the truth. That’s especially true in the “Guru” traditions like Tibetan Buddhism for instance.
That doesn’t mean though that you try to find a teacher who is doing crazy things. That may be what suits a few people, but that’s an unusual path to follow and many people won’t connect to it at all. And for each genuine “crazy yogin” such as many think Trungpa Rinpoche was, there are probably a dozen or so who think they are “crazy yogins” but are just “crazy”.
You’ll get lots of advice from people saying that “so and so” is the best, you must go to them. And maybe they are right, but maybe “so and so” is not the one for you.
The Buddhist path is a little different from most religions because Buddha when he died said not to take anyone else on as the Buddhist head, so though there are organizational structures, there’s no overall leading figure or pope or anything like that in any of the main authentic traditions - the ones that treat the sutras as the authentic teachings of the Buddha. There can’t be because Buddha said not to do that. But what we do have to ground us are Buddha’s teachings themselves in the sutras.
So, you can find teachers that are recognized as qualified to teach on a scholarly level. And you can also find teachers that have been recognized by their own teachers, and back and back in a lineage which they often say goes back to Buddha himself, who may not always be scholars, but are recognized as being able to transmit the teachings, as having a connection with the inspiration of the Buddha and passing that on to their students. It doesn’t mean they are Buddha or realized or enlightened. But they have the blessing of their lineage.
At any rate that gives something you can use as a basis to decide if they are a genuine teacher. While someone who has repudiated their own lineage or whose teacher doesn’t support them - they may be best avoided. I think that’s about the main thing. It’s going to make things complicated for you, if you connect to someone like that, but then that also can be a teaching of course.
However, you can have anyone as a teacher, doesn’t have to be a Buddhist, doesn’t have to be human, or even a living creature, eventually then your whole life can become your teacher, connecting you to compassion, grounding you when you go floating off on a cloud of daydream, waking you up in many ways, connecting you to stability and wisdom in this sense of connecting to truth.
Here I’m not talking about looking for a guru in the sense of a Tibetan guru, say. Very few people ever follow that path, and those few that do will often spend many years evaluating their teacher and vice versa before committing to a path like that. I’m talking here just about looking for someone to teach you in the ordinary sense. And most of us have many teachers along the path.
That said, that’s not to say you just go and take anyone on as a teacher, at random, not paying any attention to what everyone says about them etc. Compassion is very important. It’s just that it’s not really the teacher’s compassion that’s important - how can you evaluate that anyway? It’s your own compassion you need to look at, is this teacher connecting you to compassion, wisdom, loving kindness, patience, and the other qualities of the Buddhist path? Or are they just connecting you to them as words? If so, they are maybe giving you some kind of blessing connection to the teachings, but you may need to look elsewhere eventually to get that real connection to the path. And meanwhile someone else may find that this teacher is exactly what they need, they are just not for you, or not just now.
A flower is always happy because it is beautiful.
Bees sing their song of loneliness and weep.
A waterfall is busy hurrying to the ocean.
A poet is blown by the wind.A friend without inside or outside
And a rock that is not happy or sad
Are watching the winter crescent moon
Suffering from the bitter wind.
Just to add to the other answers here, there’s the story of Angulimala, a serial killer, which is often given as encouragement to those who have done awful things in their life, for instance murder...
(more)Just to add to the other answers here, there’s the story of Angulimala, a serial killer, which is often given as encouragement to those who have done awful things in their life, for instance murderers in prison as part of Buddhist prison chaplaincy. According to the story, he killed 999 people for their little fingers out of devotion to his own teacher who had asked him to do this. He was just about to kill his thousandth who would have been his own mother on her way to plead with him when Buddha encountered him, and the story is about how Buddha got him to change his ways.
Later, according to the story in the Pali Canon, he encounters a woman in a difficult labor and Buddha gave him a prayer to say to her, as a result of which she safely gives birth to her child. He eventually realized enlightenment as an arhat in that very life.
More about it here:
First, Buddha taught a path for us to follow based on things we can see directly and work with and test ourselves, and to keep an open mind about the things we can’t see or know ourselves. So we do...
(more)First, Buddha taught a path for us to follow based on things we can see directly and work with and test ourselves, and to keep an open mind about the things we can’t see or know ourselves. So we don’t have to believe in rebirth, it’s not like a creed. Indeed best to keep an open mind if you can, even if you have that belief in rebirth, as many Buddhists do, to recognize if you don’t actually know it for sure, that you don’t really know what happens when you die.
This thing about having an open mind includes testing our own beliefs too. So you don’t just go by your own preconceived ideas either, because they seem familiar or persuasive or feel right. That’s where many Westerners particularly go wrong, the idea “this feels right so this is the Buddhist path” - Buddha warned about that in his Kalama sutra.
It’s about continually recognizing what you don’t know and opening out to new possibilities. So particularly also about death, to recognize it too, if we don’t know for sure what happens when you die.
As for the actual process of going from one life to another, different schools of Buddhism say different things. Not as something you have to accept as a creed, but something many Buddhists believe to be true.
So Therevadans think that the next moment after your death in this life is the first thought moment of your next rebirth. Tibetans think that though this can happen, there often is a long period of several weeks in the “Bardo” state - a state of transition, confusion, bright lights and loud sounds before you end up in the next life, elaborated in detail in the Tibetan Book of the Dead.
We don’t feel there is any need for a soul or atman to do this, any more than there is a need for such for a child to grow up to be an adult.
I’m not sure where this idea that Buddhists think everything is illusion comes from. Our path is to do with connecting with whatever is true and wholesome. We can only do that if there is some truth to be found or realized or connected to. However along the path we may find that we have fooled ourselves in many ways. Especially, we tend to treat fluid changing things, as if they were fixed and permanent, not letting them change, or not letting ourselves see that they change. So, it’s the idea that there is some truth to be realized there, by recognizing this, this fluid changing nature of things. So that’s the illusory nature, or Maya on the Buddhist path, becoming aware of this impermanence of things and not running away from it but letting ourselves see it, really see it, letting it really soak in.
Also, Buddhism isn’t really about trying to get a good life through karmic cause and effect. It’s not against that either. Buddha encouraged us to be kind to ourselves :). If we can find a way to be happy in this world for a while, there’s nothing wrong with that so long as it’s not harming others. It’s good. Good to be happy, good to help others to be happy.
However, for us, karma is not something imposed by any external being. It’s just cause and effect. Prayudh Payutto, uses the example of climbing a flight of stairs. So there are many consequences of going up a flight of stairs, you can’t touch the ground, you may be a bit out of breath, you may have a better view etc. All that is karma.
This is what he wrote:
There are three philosophies which are considered by Buddhism to be wrong view and which must be carefully distinguished from the teaching of kamma:
- Pubbekatahetuvada: The belief that all happiness and suffering arise from previous kamma (Past-action determinism).
- Issaranimmanahetuvada: The belief that all happiness and suffering are caused by the directives of a Supreme Being (Theistic determinism).
- Ahetu-apaccayavada: The belief that all happiness and suffering are random, having no cause (Indeterminism or Accidentalism)
See Misunderstandings of the Law of Kamma
There one of the biggest western urban myths about karma in Buddhism is that first one: “The belief that all happiness and suffering arise from previous kamma (Past-action determinism).” which as he says is a wrong view in Buddhism. For more on this my Karma in the Buddha's teachings
So, karma is like this ordinary cause and effect we can all see, when we walk up stairs, or go to the shops or put on a kettle for a cup of tea etc. Buddhists just take a rather broader view on it than most of us, including this idea that there could be cause and effect like that operating from previous lives and through to future lives. Like, to take Prayudh’s analogy - that you climb a stair in a previous life and arrive out of breath in this :). I mean not literally, but sort of like that, that there can be effects from previous lives or whatever it was came before you were born that continue into this life. But in a rather ordinary way in a way. It’s not really the idea that every single thing that happens to you in this life, you can trace back as a response to some particular past event in a previous life. Any more than you can in this life. As Tai Situ Rinpoche put it once, it doesn’t mean that if you are bitten by a mosquito on your nose in this life, that you must have bitten that mosquito on its nose in a previous life :).
Some of the Buddhist schools pay more attention to that broader view of karma, while others, such as Zen Buddhists, hardly pay much attention to it at all. But even with the Buddhist schools and teachers that put a fair bit of emphasis on teachings about karma in this broader sense, it’s not really the central teaching of Buddhism.
The central teaching is much more to do with opening to others and - basically not having such a closed in claustrophobic approach to everything.
Indeed Buddha taught that you can never escape from the closed in situation we are in by this process of finding causal conditions to create nice peaceful and happy conditions for yourself. Anything that is conditioned like that is also something that can cease when the conditions for it go away. So - basically his central teaching is that the process of working with karma like that can never free you from this claustrophobic world we get caught up in, this wheel of Samsara.
As Walpola Rahula put it, in his “What the Buddha Taught”:
"The Buddha does not deny happiness in life when he says there is suffering. On the contrary he admits different forms of happiness, both material and spiritual, for laymen as well as for monks. In the Anguttara-nikaya, one of the five original Collections in Pali containing the Buddha's discourses, there is a list of happinesses (sukhdni), such as the happiness of family life and the happiness of the life of a recluse, the happiness of sense pleasures and the happiness of renunciation, the happiness of attachment and the happiness of detachment, physical happiness and mental happiness etc.
“But all these are included in dukkha. Even the very pure spiritual states of dhyana (recueillement or trance) attained by the practice of higher meditation, free from even a shadow of suffering in the accepted sense of the word, states which may be described as unmixed happiness, as well as the state of dhjana which is free from sensations both pleasant (sukha) and unpleasant' (dukkha) and is only pure equanimity and awareness—even these very high spiritual states are included in dukkha. In one of the suttas of the Majjhima-nikdya, (again one of the five original Collections), after praising the spiritual happiness of these dhyanas, the Buddha says that they are 'impermanent, dukkha, and subject to change' (anicca dukkha viparinamadbamma). Notice that the word dukkha is explicitly used. It is dukkha, not because there is 'suffering' in the ordinary sense of the word, but because 'whatever is impermanent is dukkha' (yad aniccam tam dukkham). "
So - working with karma does not give us a “way out”, not for Buddhists. It helps us find stability in peace for a while in this world. It’s important. To recognize that actions have consequences. To learn to live in this world in a way that first doesn’t harm others, and if possible helps them too.
But opening out to others and compassion and loving kindness - that’s part of the path and is a way that we can transcend all that. That’s in all the main schools of Buddhism. Along with humour and not taking ourselves too seriously, and the help of friends to bring a perspective we can’t see easily for ourselves.
It’s a path of connecting to whatever is authentic and true. Down to Earth and straightforward, and the aim is not to enter into a mystical state or a trance or anything like that.
As Walpola Rahula put it:
"It is incorrect to think that Nirvana is the natural result of the extinction of craving. Nirvana is not the result of anything. If it would be a result, then it would be an effect produced by a cause. It would be sankhata ‘produced’ and ‘conditioned’. Nirvana is neither cause nor effect. It is beyond cause and effect. Truth is not a result nor an effect. It is not produced like a mystic, spiritual, mental state, such as dhyana or samadhi. TRUTH IS. NIRVANA IS. The only thing you can do is to see it, to realize it. There is a path leading to the realization of Nirvana. But Nirvana is not the result of this path.You may get to the mountain along a path, but the mountain is not the result, not an effect of the path. You may see a light, but the light is not the result of your eyesight."
In all the main schools of Buddhism again it’s a path of balancing wisdom and compassion. There wisdom is not intellectual wisdom but rather, seeing the truth of things, seeing clearly, having a good clear understanding of what needs to be known. If you focus over much on wisdom you can be a hard hearted person, who sees things clearly but without much feeling or connection. While if you focus overmuch on compassion you can be a good hearted fool. So it’s a case of balancing both. Tibetans have the analogy that it’s like a bird’s wings, a bird needs two wings to fly, so as a follower of the Buddha’s path you are flying on the two wings of wisdom and compassion. So I’m not sure if that analogy of a bird is in Therevada too, but the idea of balancing wisdom and compassion is.
See also my answer to What is the difference between Buddhist and Christian compassion? - I’ve used part of it in this answer.
Also I think most Buddhists wouldn’t say of themselves that they are atheist, or theist for that matter, or agnostic. It’s more that if you are following the path of the Buddha, there’s no need to speculate in any direction about such things. Trungpa Rinpoche called it “non theist”. See his How To Become a Buddhist by Taking Refuge by Chögyam Trungpa Rinpoche
I don’t think there is a difference in the actual moment of compassion, it’s just compassion. It’s the same no matter what your religion, or none. There are differences in how you conceptualize it ...
(more)I don’t think there is a difference in the actual moment of compassion, it’s just compassion. It’s the same no matter what your religion, or none. There are differences in how you conceptualize it afterwards perhaps. A Buddhist might see it as a brief moment of non confusion and of connection with what is true, grounding and wholesome. Or might say it is a moment when you were inspired and blessed by the compassionate nature of Buddhas, and connected to the Buddha nature in all of us. Might conceptualize it in many ways.
With Buddhists as for Christians it is not something you do out of a motivation to help yourself. If you do it like that, it’s not true compassion.
All the main branches of Buddhism are like this. It’s not just the “Mahayana” schools, they teach more this way, but a “Mahayana practitioner” can easily end up practicing compassion to help themselves, which is not really true compassion. And a Therevadan practitioner likewise, just through connecting to the truth and authenticity of their situation might well be opening to compassion and loving kindness in a simpler and more direct way.
The path of Therevada of connecting to truth is a path of opening out to others and of compassion too. All the quotes here are from Walpola Rahula’s “What the Buddha Taught” which describes the central teachings of Therevadan Buddhism, and talking about the Noble Eightfold Path which is central to Therevadan Buddhism:
“Ethical Conduct (Si/a) is built on the vast conception of universal love and compassion for all living beings, on which the Buddha's teaching is based. It is regrettable that many scholars forget this great ideal of the Buddha's teaching, and indulge in only dry philosophical and metaphysical divagations when they talk and write about Buddhism. The Buddha gave his teaching 'for the good of the many, for the happiness of the many, out of compassion for the world' “
“According to Buddhism for a man to be perfect there are two qualities that he should develop equally: compassion {karuna) on one side, and wisdom (panna) on the other. Here compassion represents love, charity, kindness, tolerance and such noble qualities on the emotional side, or qualities of the heart, while wisdom would stand for the intellectual side or the qualities of the mind. If one develops only the emotional neglecting the intellectual, one may become a good-hearted fool; while to develop only the intellectual side neglecting the emotional may turn one into a hardhearted intellect without feeling for others. Therefore, to be perfect one has to develop both equally. That is the aim of the Buddhist way of life: in it wisdom and compassion are inseparably linked together, as we shall see later. “
All the main schools of Buddhism - the ones that treat the ancient Buddhist sutras as the authentic teachings of the Buddha - have their own versions of most of the early teachings. These are almost identical with only minor changes, so these schools have large numbers of sutras in common. What he says in the quotes here are accepted by all the main schools of Buddhism.
Buddhism isn’t really about trying to get a good life through karmic cause and effect. Well it is up to a point. Buddha encouraged us to be kind to ourselves :). If we can find a way to be happy in this world for a while, there’s nothing wrong with that so long as it’s not harming others. It’s good. Good to be happy, good to help others to be happy. And Karma is just a general way of thinking about cause and effect, at least it’s one way of thinking about it. When you climb a flight of stairs and see a nice view from the top - that’s one of the effects of climbing that flight of stairs - so that is karma. In that sense we are all involved in karmic cause and effect. When you are hungry and go to the shop to buy some food - that’s you involved in karmic cause and effect too.
My example of a stair there is from Prayudh Payutto, who is amongst the most brilliant scholars in the Thai Buddhist tradition (and winner of the 1994 UNESCO prize for Peace Education), with a thorough understanding of the Therevadhan Pali Canon, who has also devoted himself to educating the public on this topic.
This is what he wrote:
There are three philosophies which are considered by Buddhism to be wrong view and which must be carefully distinguished from the teaching of kamma:
- Pubbekatahetuvada: The belief that all happiness and suffering arise from previous kamma (Past-action determinism).
- Issaranimmanahetuvada: The belief that all happiness and suffering are caused by the directives of a Supreme Being (Theistic determinism).
- Ahetu-apaccayavada: The belief that all happiness and suffering are random, having no cause (Indeterminism or Accidentalism)
See Misunderstandings of the Law of Kamma
There one of the biggest western urban myths about karma in Buddhism is that first one: “The belief that all happiness and suffering arise from previous kamma (Past-action determinism).” which as he says is a wrong view in Buddhism. For more on this my Karma in the Buddha's teachings
So, karma is like this ordinary cause and effect we can all see, when we walk up stairs, or go to the shops or put on a kettle for a cup of tea etc. Buddhists just take a rather broader view on it than most of us. Some of the Buddhist schools pay more attention to that broader view of karma, while others, such as Zen Buddhists, hardly pay much attention to it at all. But even with the Buddhist schools and teachers that put a fair bit of emphasis on teachings about karma, it’s not really the central teaching of Buddhism. The central teaching is much more to do with opening to others and - basically not having such a closed in claustrophobic approach to everything.
Indeed Buddha taught that you can never escape from the closed in situation we are in by this process of finding causal conditions to create nice peaceful and happy conditions for yourself. Anything that is conditioned like that is also something that can cease when the conditions for it go away. So - basically his central teaching is that the process of working with karma like that can never free you from this claustrophobic world we get caught up in, this wheel of Samsara. It can help you to have a “holiday” - a time that is somewhat more happy, relaxed, where you are not so beset with troubles that you can take a good look at what’s going on and maybe do something about it.
He taught that you can even have long periods of time with not a trace of sadness or an unhappy thought, nothing but pure happiness, or even more refined states than that, and he praised this worldly happiness.
He gives this list of four types of worldly happiness when asked by a wealthy banker Anathapindika,:
“The first happiness is to enjoy economic security or sufficient wealth acquired by just and righteous means (attki-sukha); the second is spending that wealth liberally on himself, his family, his friends and relatives, and on meritorious deeds (bhoga-sukha); the third to be free from debts (anana-sukha); the fourth happiness is to live a faultless, and a pure life without committing evil in thought, word or deed (anavajja-sukha). “
But your “holiday” will eventually end, even if somehow you could get it to last for billions of years, some ET with immensely long lives. We might meet extraterrestrials that have happy lives that will last even for a trillion years. We might feel they have everything made, that they have achieved what we are struggling to find. But according to the teaching of the Buddha, they have still not found a way out of this cycle of Samsara.
"The Buddha does not deny happiness in life when he says there is suffering. On the contrary he admits different forms of happiness, both material and spiritual, for laymen as well as for monks. In the Anguttara-nikaya, one of the five original Collections in Pali containing the Buddha's discourses, there is a list of happinesses (sukhdni), such as the happiness of family life and the happiness of the life of a recluse, the happiness of sense pleasures and the happiness of renunciation, the happiness of attachment and the happiness of detachment, physical happiness and mental happiness etc.
“But all these are included in dukkha. Even the very pure spiritual states of dhyana (recueillement or trance) attained by the practice of higher meditation, free from even a shadow of suffering in the accepted sense of the word, states which may be described as unmixed happiness, as well as the state of dhjana which is free from sensations both pleasant (sukha) and unpleasant' (dukkha) and is only pure equanimity and awareness—even these very high spiritual states are included in dukkha. In one of the suttas of the Majjhima-nikdya, (again one of the five original Collections), after praising the spiritual happiness of these dhyanas, the Buddha says that they are 'impermanent, dukkha, and subject to change' (anicca dukkha viparinamadbamma). Notice that the word dukkha is explicitly used. It is dukkha, not because there is 'suffering' in the ordinary sense of the word, but because 'whatever is impermanent is dukkha' (yad aniccam tam dukkham). "
So - working with karma does not give us a “way out”. But opening out to others and compassion and loving kindness - that’s part of the path and is a way that we can transcend all that. That’s in all the main schools of Buddhism. Along with humour and not taking ourselves too seriously, and the help of friends to bring a perspective we can’t see easily for ourselves.
It’s a path of connecting to whatever is authentic and true. Down to Earth and straightforward, and the aim is not to enter into a mystical state or a trance or anything like that.
As Walpola Rahula put it:
"It is incorrect to think that Nirvana is the natural result of the extinction of craving. Nirvana is not the result of anything. If it would be a result, then it would be an effect produced by a cause. It would be sankhata ‘produced’ and ‘conditioned’. Nirvana is neither cause nor effect. It is beyond cause and effect. Truth is not a result nor an effect. It is not produced like a mystic, spiritual, mental state, such as dhyana or samadhi. TRUTH IS. NIRVANA IS. The only thing you can do is to see it, to realize it. There is a path leading to the realization of Nirvana. But Nirvana is not the result of this path.You may get to the mountain along a path, but the mountain is not the result, not an effect of the path. You may see a light, but the light is not the result of your eyesight."
(Have just updated this with quotes from Walpola Rahula and Prayudh Payutto for the main points)
Well it’s a great place for sanctioned wikipedians to go. Wikipedia is having a lot of trouble keeping its editors. I don’t think it is losing them to Quora. I think it is losing them because so ma...
(more)Well it’s a great place for sanctioned wikipedians to go. Wikipedia is having a lot of trouble keeping its editors. I don’t think it is losing them to Quora. I think it is losing them because so many good faith editors there get sanctioned for minor things, get no support once sanctioned, have no voice there once sanctioned and so the admins who ban or block them don’t see what they are doing to them.
If you get topic banned you absolutely can’t say anything about the discussion that lead to the ban or you get an even greater sanction. So you soon learn just not to talk about what happened there, no matter how unfair you think it was, no matter if you even have no idea what you did wrong. Meanwhile off wiki then all your friends sympathize and many may decide never to edit wikipedia again after what happened to you. So it is no wonder wikipedia is constantly losing good editors and not gaining that many to replace them.
So - it’s not anywhere else that’s doing that. Wikipedia is doing it to itself. It doesn’t have to, it’s just the culture that has developed there for some reason. It’s such a shame and I wish I could do something about it as the basic idea of wikipedia is so good and many parts of it are excellent and show that it can work well. But I think this is spoiled by its easy sanctioning culture and lack of any support or help for editors once sanctioned.
So - after you have encountered that sanctioning culture on wikipedia where you can be topic banned or blocked almost at the drop of a hat if you get unlucky, then writing for Quora is a huge relief.
Nobody here gets sanctioned at all unless it is for something really serious like trolling. You don’t get sanctioned for repeatedly disagreeing with the status quo. Just get downvoted, get comments on your answers, but you may get upvotes too and eventually maybe you win over the people who originally downvoted you. It’s a very different culture here
On wikipedia, I’ve seen pages of content that’s encyclopedic and with lots of citations, nearly every sentence, just deleted overnight, or rewritten with all the old material removed. I’ve had my own work removed too. This is very discouraging for an author, and especially if the new material is either plain wrong, as it seems to you, or badly written and poorly sourced, or misuses its sources.
Nevertheless I do still contribute there. But I would have written dozens of articles there if the environment had been more friendly. I can certainly write in an encyclopedic style and know how to write from a neutral point of view by presenting all the arguments in a case from the different viewpoints. I can do it, but I don’t want the material deleted, so I don’t contribute much there and do so only very cautiously.
I’ve got several mature articles that are entirely or mainly my own creation. One of my earliest, and still a favourite, about a musical scale based around an octahedron. The article has been edited by many editors since then but was originally all my work: Hexany. I wrote about half of Planetary protection , and most of Interplanetary contamination,
I recently contributed Modern Mars habitability and Present day Mars habitability analogue environments on Earth Those two had been sitting in my user space in Wikipedia for several years because of a single editor there who singlehandedly kept all material on the present day habitability of Mars out. He was one of the editors that previously deleted my content on this topic area. Now he has stopped editing wikipedia for some reason - leaving a big gap as by the end of his “tenure” there was nobody else contributing anything in the astrobiology articles I had on my watch list there. I took that opportunity to add those articles which everyone else there is fine with.
So, it’s like that.
Quora is much more fun. Wikipedia can get deadly serious at times, and you are always aware that you can be sanctioned if you make a mistake. It’s okay for newbies making relatively small changes especially. If you are lucky and contribute in a more friendly area you may encounter no problems at all. But if you really get involved in wikipedia, then unless you are lucky, you can run into aggression quickly.
While here on Quora it’s far more friendly!
It’s easier here because whatever you write, nobody else can do anything to your text.
I could spend a year working on an article in Wikipedia and then someone might delete it all and I would have to defend it against a dozen people I don’t know who may often know little about the topic.
You can even be topic banned for supporting content which is mainstream, accepted by everyone who knows anything about the topic, by an editor on wikipedia who has gathered a following who is promoting an eccentric view on the topic that probably nobody outside wikipedia would support. Not even supported by the authors they are using as sources. I just was. I protested rather verbosely, and was topic banned for my verbosity in supporting the obvious against a minority fringe view I’ve not seen outside wikipedia except in urban myths.
While here all anyone can do is to suggest changes. Or downvote your answer.
So, the main thing is, Quora is set up in such a way that you can’t be bullied by others, because your content is your own. While on Wikipedia while many areas of the encyclopedia is okay, it has an endemic problem of wikibullying in my view.
If you encounter a bully on Wikipedia, as a newbie, my advice is - just back away quietly. Don’t comment on their behaviour. Don’t report them, not as a newbie. I wish I could suggest you do that, but this is fraught with danger on wikipedia. If you do, there’s a good chance you get a “boomerang” where to your bewilderment you find yourself sanctioned by them for some obscure offence you don’t even understand, and may just be made up. And these are people for whom often Wikipedia is their whole life pretty much - they can spend hours a week on these discussions and sanctioning procedures and you most likely don’t have the time and don’t understand what is going on anyway.
For an example see the experiences of Clarawood123 in my answer to What are the most frustrating aspects of being a Wikipedia editor?
This can never happen here.
Wikipedia does have lots of ways of dealing with goodnatured disagreements. Discussion, request for comment, etc. But it doesn’t really have good ways to help newbies or even experienced editors deal with wikibullies. It’s a great shame and I hope some day this can be remedied.
Interesting question. As Matthew Clifford said, normal limits for skyscrapers don’t apply. But there are some limitations even so. I’m going to take a slightly different slant on it. It can certain...
(more)Interesting question. As Matthew Clifford said, normal limits for skyscrapers don’t apply. But there are some limitations even so. I’m going to take a slightly different slant on it. It can certainly grow to be kilometers in diameter no problem. But exactly how large can it get?
First, in case any of you don’t know, the current plan is to de-orbit it in the mid 2020s. Most of it will crash into the Pacific in a region known as the spacecraft graveyard, an area far from any shipping route and with deep sea where many burnt up spacecraft lie on the ocean floor. Even if they had the funding to keep it going, the modules themselves have a short lifetime, because the conditions are so harsh there. There are a couple of new modules which could be kept and used as part of a new space station - and that’s a possible Russian plan, the new ones are theirs. But the rest will go.
So, this is hypothetical - as an imaginative exercise.
BUILDING VERTICALLY - OR SIDEWAYS - CAN GET TO KILOMETERS, MAYBE EVEN HUNDREDS OF KILOMETERS
So, first, if you build vertically, you are going to run into problems eventually. Satellites closer to Earth orbit faster. The gravity also changes so there’s a gravity gradient as well. LEO is well within Earth’s “Roche sphere”. This means that a structure even made of solid rock will tear apart into dust if it is big enough. Tides from the Moon are relevant too.
So, you will certainly be able to build hundreds of meters, and probably kilometers. You can get to tens, maybe hundreds of kilometers if you join the modules together with materials such as Kevlar, or better, Zylon (polybenzoxazole fiber) which has a breaking height of 379 km under full Earth gravity (from page 14 of this study). When a material has a breaking height, you can build cables that can support their own weight for several times that breaking height if you taper them.
If we can build our structures with carbon monotubes or similar - which we don’t have yet of that length, eventually we could build it tens of thousands of kilometers vertically all the way to GEO and beyond. The problem with carbon nanotubes is that minute flaws destroy just about all their strength, Perfect carbon nanotubes measured in the laboratory have a breaking height of 2,200 km, but all the carbon nanotubes constructed for practical applications have only a hundredth of their theoretical strength. They are actually weaker than Kevlar (1 GPa compared to 3.6 GPa for Kevlar).
Maybe one day we can do that. But right now you are probably limited to a few hundred kilometers of vertical building at most, especially in LEO where the gravity gradient is high. At higher orbits, then you could build it vertically much further than at lower orbits because the gravity gradient is much less
You could use air beams to connect the modules together as they would permit more flexibility in such a large structure. That’s plenty of expansion space for the foreseeable near future. But I like to explore the limits of what is possible. So suppose you want it to be even bigger, not just hundreds, but thousands of kilometers in dimension?
It’s also an issue building sideways too. Again you run into the problem that different parts of your space station will try to move in different directions around the Earth because the orbits aren’t parallel, indeed they intersect.
BUILDING ALONG ITS ORBIT - NO PROBLEM AT ALL - TENS OF THOUSANDS OF KILOMETERS
So, by far the easiest way to build is along its orbit. It could be joined with other modules to fill its entire orbit. That would be no problem as they are all orbiting with the same orbital velocity.
So the best way to build it really big is to make it - perhaps a few hundred meters wide and deep, or kilometers if you need to, and as a huge ribbon that spreads around the world, so that would make it 43,000 kilometers long.
That may seem impossible. But we may get low cost transport to space in the future, and if so, then there isn’t really any reason why we can’t continue to add to it.
ORBITAL DRAG AT LEO
Now there is the problem that it is a bit too low however to join together like that, because it will de-orbit within decades at most, probably faster. You wouldn’t want to build a huge orbital metropolis and then reboost it every few years. So it would make more sense to build it at a rather higher orbit, middle orbit. Or you could go rather higher and build it in geostationary orbit.
ORBITAL CITY AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT
Geostationary orbit is 35,786 kilometres above the equator, add the radius of the Earth of 6,371 km and you get a circumference of around 264,000 km. So if we were to built at GEO we could have something like the ISS that’s truly vast. It’s the next most natural place to build after LEO in a future with abundant heavy lift and faster rockets, making it easy perhaps to get even to GEO in hours.
If you build in GEO also, then there is nothing there to make it de-orbit. It will just stay there indefinitely.
Arthur C. Clarke envisions such a future in his Fountains of Paradise novel, in the epilogue “Kalidasa’s triumph”
“The Holmer everted Its eyes to give telescopic vision, and slowly scanned the zenith. Yes, there it was - hard to see by day, but easy by night when the sunlight streaming past the shadow of Earth still blazed upon it. The thin, shining band that split the sky into two hemispheres was a whole world in itself, where half - a - billion humans had opted for permanent zero gravity life.”
So how big could such a city be? What surface area? Well the surface area of the Earth is 510.1 million km². Suppose our city is 100 km wide. Then how many levels would be needed to achieve the same surface area as the Earth?
The answer is that if you made it 20 stories high, 100 km wide, and filled the whole of GEO with it, then the surface area inside would be larger than the surface area of our Earth. You could make each of those “stories” kilometers high and it would still be feasible. Indeed the gravity gradient there is so little you could build it vertically for thousands of kilometers easily if you had any need to do so.
If we had the ability to move large amounts of materials into space including getting construction materials from the Moon, and if we suppose a civilization continuing, space faring, for a few millennia, then I can easily imagine that we produce constructions like this eventually.
Well, I’m sort of a present and former editor. I’m a present day editor in topics like Mars habitability. This is article for instance, recent one, is my work: Modern Mars habitability
So, I know ho...
(more)Well, I’m sort of a present and former editor. I’m a present day editor in topics like Mars habitability. This is article for instance, recent one, is my work: Modern Mars habitability
So, I know how wikipedia works. Some areas are fine. But in others, a little cartel of maybe a half dozen editors may control an entire topic area. Wikipedia isn’t really one encyclopedia. It’s like several thousand encyclopedias smashed together, some excellent, some appalling, some mediocre, some okay-ish. For instance their “mini encyclopedia” on space missions and on astronomy are excellent, I use them a lot, always worth checking up details if you have to, even then, but I can be pretty sure that they got it right.
Basically, many of the low footfall articles are fine. Nobody is bothered to do anything about them and they are added by enthusiasts who wish to improve wikipedia, and they may have occasional mistakes. But they are often very good. And discussions on their talk pages are often between enthusiasts with no axe to grind and may be okay too, though sometimes with an occasional troll trying to start up a flamefest.
Articles with lots of editors, like, say, “Climate Change”, they tend to be okay. But it’s the in between ones that are worst. They are high profile enough for some editors to want to take over them, but not got enough editors to keep the others in check.
MY OWN INDEF TOPIC BAN ON BUDDHISM
I have just been indef topic banned Buddhism, broadly construed. I wasn’t trying to edit the articles. I wanted to add a banner to the top of the articles saying “The neutrality of this article has been disputed”.
I was topic banned as a result of a case taken against me by the editors who opposed adding these tags. Their argument was that the articles are just fine as they are, and don’t need any tags. This is a neutrality dispute and usually you resolve them by adding those tags and letting other editors comment on the article.
But in this case the opposing editors in the dispute said the tags had to be removed because the article was neutrally stated. This is not usually how such disputes are resolved. The reason they gave for banning me was mainly that I was too verbose in the talk page discussions.
The editors opposing me were very harsh. During the action against me,even when I offered to post a comment to the Buddhism topic area only once a day, as a way to deal with my verbosity this was not enough to change their views. Indeed they proposed more and more harsh remedies the more I tried to be conciliatory.
Discussion on Reddit here: About to be topic banned for trying to add a POV tag to an article on my Buddhist faith that is as misleading as an article about Christianity saying they don't believe in the Resurrection of Jesus
The indef topic ban against me is here Wikipedia:Administrators' noticeboard/Incidents - Wikipedia
DARKFROG24’S INDEF BLOCK
I also have a friend Darkfrog24 who has ended up being blocked from editing wikipedia altogether. It all started with a short term topic ban on quotation marks and punctuation. She is a wikignome, who also has a deep interest in the Manual of Style for wikipedia
WikiGnome - they do minor edits and copy editing, fix punctuation, etc. Invisible to most users and editors but vital for keeping the encyclopedia looking good
Wiktionary has articles for four ways you can position full stops and commas relative to quotation marks:
The Manual of Style often has debates about once a year on quotation marks. The current guidelines are to use logical style throughout. Darkfrog24 always speaks up for the proposal to use British and American quotation styles for their respective articles.
One of the most serious claims made against her when she was topic banned was that she falsified an “ENGVAR” as they put it on wikipedia. I.e. that she intentionally lied when she said there was a distinction between British quotation and American quotation.
This is a very serious allegation that would justifiably get osmeone topic banned. Except, that it is obviously false. How could you, assuming good faith, say that she has falsified a distinction which is in wiktionary - a sister project. Surely the editors of wiktionary are good faith editors? So why can’t Darkfrog24 be when she says the same thing? With many citations to back up her arguments?
This is not about whether she is right or wrong about what the Manual of Style should say about quotation marks. Not even about whether she is right or wrong about whether the British and the Americans have a different style for positioning of quotation marks. She wasn’t banned for her views.
She was banned for, amongst other things, this truly bizarre allegation that she was lying about the distinction. It’s an allegation that would have been thrown out right away if there was any independent fact checking of the evidence presented to the admins.
It becomes particularly bizarre once you realize that the very same editor who took her to the admins to get her topic banned for submitting a bogus ENGVAR (see his statement here under Statement by SMcCandish) is the same author that contributed those wiktionary articles on British quotation and American quotation.
DARKFROG24 NEVER TAKES PART IN MOS CONVERSATIONS AFTER THE BAN
From then on, she never once took part in any conversations in topic banned areas, or edited any of the articles. But first she got the topic ban extended to the whole of Manual of Style (the style guide for wikipedia), then blocked, then indef blocked.
TOPIC BAN EXTENDED TO ALL THE MANUAL OF STYLE FOR A SINGLE TALK PAGE COMMENT
Her extended topic ban was on the basis of a single comment she did in reply to a former colleague SmokeyJoe who asked her on her talk page why she wasn’t commenting on the latest dispute on MoS. She answered saying “I can’t because I’m topic banned” which was okay but added an extra sentence which could have conveyed to SmokeyJoe a hint as to how she would have commented on the discussion (as if they didn’t know already). That one casual comment on her own talk page, which in wikipedia of course stands in your contributions record for everyone to see from then on - was enough for a topic ban extended to the whole of MoS .
She then got an indef block from something she said to Thryduulf, the closing admin to that case - and has now had her appeal against this block rejected three times. In none of that time has she done anything to evade her block or topic bans, at least not what most of us would think of as an evasion. She hasn’t ever tried to edit any of the articles in the topic ban area or to engage in discussions on her talk page. Mainly she has been talking to the admins.
Since the admins who take on her case are naturally required to be uninvolved in the dispute, then there is no way any of this could be seen as an attempt on her part to influence the article content in any way at all.
The topic ban guidelines are interpreted just incredibly harshly there. They say that what Darkfrog24 said to SmokeyJoe is a violation of her topic ban, clear and simple, because of one extra remark that could be interpreted as indicating her views on the matter indirectly. They said that was sufficient cause for an immediate increased sanction. Well, presumably they know how things are done there. But if it leads to a situation like that, the whole system is in need of an overhaul in my view.
NATURAL QUESTIONS THAT TOPIC BANNED EDITORS HAVE
I think topic banned editors need to have someone they can talk to on wikipedia, and that the admins should be required to answer questions. Most of her questions to them, which lead to these increased sanctions were along the lines of:
“What was I topic banned for?”
“What was I blocked for?”
“What do I need to do to get unblocked?”
“Can you say which of the many accusations against me you support, if any?
Can you at least agree that the worst accusations made were false (the worst ones of falsifying an ENGVAR and gaslighting would be easy for an independent uninvolved researcher to prove false with a few minutes of research)?”
None of these questions are permitted in practice. Not only won’t they answer them, you risk increased sanctions just for asking them, especially if you persist in asking.
So, that’s at the highest level, it is way too harsh. Here she is mainly dealing with ArbCom, who have been elected as the twelve best admins on wikipedia by the community. There is no authority higher than them on wikipedia with the exception possibly of Jimmy Wales himself. But he only steps in very rarely and hardly at all in recent years.
I think ArbCom should be accountable to some kind of oversight.
I also think admins should not be permitted to impose additional sanctions to an editor just for asking them questions about their topic ban on their own talk page or responding to comments by other editors on their own talk page - unless for obvious violations such as asking another editor to vote for them or to present their views on a banned topic.
I think in addition that editors like Darkfrog24 should not only be permitted to ask such questions. I think the admins should be required to answer them too. Or if they are too busy, find a way to ensure that someone else can answer their questions for them.
As to how to make that happen, there may be many ways, but the starting point is to recognize that a change of some sort is needed and to begin some kind of investigation and search for a solution.
OPEN LETTER TO JIMMY WALES PLAN
I plan an open letter to Jimmy Wales saying this, and to post to my Science20 blog about it. I think the situation there is just appalling as it is now. The way topic banned and blocked editors are treated is just so extraordinarily harsh, and the admins don’t even seem to see how harsh they are being.
They don’t get that much feedback because most editors soon learn there is no point in asking your closing admin about the many things that puzzle you. If you try you find you are walking on a thin line, and you feel that an inadvertent remark can lead to increased sanctions at any moment, as indeed happened to Darkfrog24 multiple times. I think everyone can agree that she never had any intention to break the topic ban guidelines.
There is also no emotional support for topic banned and blocked editors who are often in considerable distress, and often are not sure what happened and why they were blocked or banned. The admins are far too busy to answer their questions and also seem to have no understanding of what it is like to be topic banned or blocked.
WIKIPEDIA AS THE ENCYCLOPEDIA ANYONE CAN EDIT
As it says on the head of the main page: the free encyclopedia that anyone can edit. All the admins see is a user name such as Darkfrog24 . Some people disclose information about themselves including a photograph - I do. But I’m in a minority there. For most people, you know nothing at all about them and their personal life off wiki.
This means that these sanctioned editors could be
In some cases wikipedia, before the sanction, may have been their main contact with other people. It may have been their social group, pretty much their entire world of communication.
They may be in considerable personal distress. They may be suicidal, bankrupt, in the middle of a marriage breakup, their parents or children have just died
ADMINS’ ONE SIZE FITS ALL SOLUTION - TO KEEP INCREASING SANCTIONS, IF NECESSARY BLOCK AND REBLOCK, UNTIL THEY UNDERSTAND WHY THEY WERE BLOCKED OR SANCTIONED
The admins have this theory, that the best way to treat them after they have been sanctioned, is to be very harsh, to say to them that they must not talk about the topic ban on wikipedia at all, and to increase the sanctions if they break these rules immediately on the slightest infraction.
They seem to think that if they tell them not to discuss the topic ban with anyone on wikipedia, that this will help them to calm down, and return to productive editing. AFAIK it’s not based on any empirical evidence.
WOULD IT NOT BE MORE EFFECTIVE TO JUST LET THEM TALK, ON THEIR OWN TALK PAGE, TO THE ADMINS?
Maybe it works with some people. But I think for most people it would be far more effective to
I understand the admins are very busy. But wikipedia is now wealthy and has plenty of money to use for a problem. So why not employ some skilled people to do fact checking, to talk to the editors to help them understand their topic bans and blocks, to find solutions, to help them back to productive editing, and to strike out obviously false accusations on the spot.
TWO READINGS OF THE TOPIC BAN GUIDELINES
I think this is the nub of it actually.
I don’t think it is at all clear from the guidelines that this is how the original authors of those guidelines intended them to be interpreted. In my view, it’s not justifiable as a way of protecting the wikipedia article content as these are edits that are not in any way going to affect the content of the articles themselves. The user pages are not part of the encyclopedia that the public read.
So, I don’t see why there is any necessity to protect the user’s own talk page from any mention of the topic however tangential, such as asking those questions.
THESE SUGGESTIONS ARE COMPATIBLE WITH THE GUIDELINES IN MY VIEW
As far as I can see, the current very harsh interpretation of TBAN is not in the guidelines themselves. They say that you can ask the closing admin to reconsider their decision as part of the appeal process. They also say you can ask for clarification of the scope of your ban.
They don’t however say
Or
Or,
Or even
The upside of this is that perhaps this whole issue could be fixed without contradicting anything currently in the TBAN guidelines, just adding clarification that these questions can be asked, and extra clarification that admins are actually required to answer them, or to appoint someone else to answer those questions for them.
I think an editor should be commended, not sanctioned, for talking about their plans for ways to return to editing on wikipedia after the topic ban is over. I think also that it would be good if someone on wikipedia can be assigned to them to help them with those plans. How does requiring complete silence from the sanctioned editor on wikipedia for six months help them towards returning to wikipedia editing?
AGGRESSION ON THE TALK PAGES
So, back to your question.
I think the aggression you see on the talk pages is connected to this. That the editors (I’m talking about ordinary editors now, not admins) know they can get their opponents topic banned by taking them to admins, rather easily, for not much by way of evidence at all.
So they then, to not put too fine a point on it, start bullying other editors. Some of them are notorious for this and editors who are well informed steer well away from them.
Often a single editor will hold sway as a wiki bully over an entire topic area. I’ve seen this happen in the astrobiology topic area until last autumn, and at present it is happening in the Buddhism topic area in my view. These bullies, like bullies at school, are also often able to gather a crowd of half a dozen or so other editors who go around with them and support them in what they do.
They wouldn’t see it like that, I know. They think they are defending wikipedia against others who are trying to change their articles from what they consider to be the ideal state. And their followers agree with them. And they feel that they have to use strong measures like reversing edits because the editors who keep disturbing their articles never seem to get the message unless they do that.
But to those of us who are at the receiving end, it is just bullying basically, or can be. And they are very experienced and they know how to present situations to the admins in such a way as to get the outcome they want.
These wiki bullies are very skilled at what they do. One of the most extraordinary cases here was of a bewildered newbie editor topic banned and blocked for writing an article about the housing estate they live in, Clarawood estate. I go into that in a little detail in my Alice through the looking glass themed answer to What are the most frustrating aspects of being a Wikipedia editor?
When you encounter wiki bullying and aggression -well the simplest thing is just go away to another article. Or to leave wikipedia. It’s an endemic problem there in my experience. But there are many articles and topic areas where the editors are much more friendly. It is possible to have a good experience editing wikipedia.
SUGGESTION FOR NEWBIES - DON’T FIGHT THE BULLIES
My suggestion for newbies to wikipedia editing - don’t try to fight the bullies if you fall foul of them. Just go away, stop editing for a week or two if you got worked up. Find an area of wikipedia that you are interested in which is much quieter, with friendlier people.
If this was a school you’d add “report them”. But that doesn’t work on wikipedia. If you try to report on bullying, you are very likely to get a “boomerang”. This happens many times. A newbie editor takes one of these bullies to arbitration enforcement and to their astonishment the bully manages to gather a long list of “diffs” which the newbies have probably never even heard of, which proves to the admins to their satisfaction that the newbie editor has to be banned for a series of breaches of obscure wikipedia guidelines with strange acronyms that they had never heard of before.
My advice is, sadly, don’t try reporting the bullies on wikipedia. It almost never works.
I think that actually the majority of wikipedia discussions are friendly, for the minor articles especially. And on the big articles you re just one of many commentators. It’s the ones middle in popularity that are most tricky. Just you and another editor, or maybe two other editors.
If the other one is a bully - as with school bullies the safest thing is just to back off slowly and go away.
I went into my wikipedia Buddhism dispute this time with clear eyes. I knew there was a chance I would be topic banned. I was sailing close to the wind. I didn’t think it would happen but then got a bit verbose, and the opponents saw their advantage and took it, and wham, now I am topic banned from the entire Buddhism topic area.
The safest thing is to back away slowly even when you feel you are quite experienced. Of course don’t accuse them of bullying, don’t say you are going away because they have made things impossible for you. Just stop talking, take a break and go somewhere else.
First, you can’t force “non attachment”. Any attempt at that is a way instead of getting strongly attached to some conceptual notion you have of what non attachment is. If that happens then you are...
(more)First, you can’t force “non attachment”. Any attempt at that is a way instead of getting strongly attached to some conceptual notion you have of what non attachment is. If that happens then you are in an even worse situation than you were before. You think you are practicing non attachment. But instead you may be practicing indifference, coldness of heart, a strong focus on yourself over and above everyone else, and now that you have called it non attachment - how can you ever do anything about it? You are just reinforcing this closed in coldness of heart whenever you practice what you think is non attachment in an attempt to do something about it. You may notice at some point that it doesn’t seem right, like there is a barrier between yourself and others, but you still can’t do anything about it. It may be very hard for someone to get out of such a trap.
Instead non attachment is something that you can reach through compassion, through opening out to others, through somewhat less focusing on yourself and your wishes and goals, through humour, letting up a little. Others can often help you in ways you can’t yourself.
So - yes compassion and loving kindness towards the closest people in your life is part of the path of non attachment. And the main difference between the attached and the non attached response in this Buddhist sense is that it is less claustrophobic, it’s helping both of you grow, it’s open to others as well, what you are doing may have ripples well beyond the immediate situation you can see. And it’s a learning process so part of it also is being kind to yourself as well as others. Like a toddler learning to walk, you are going to fall over, over and over. But you just pick yourself up and keep going. So that is part of non attachment too. Not being attached to your non attachment, and accepting that you make many mistakes and being kind to yourself.
Not permanently because all radioactive elements decay. So - can it be done temporarily? Well, not using modern nuclear weapons. Forget all those post apocalyptic stories of a radioactive world - a...
(more)Not permanently because all radioactive elements decay. So - can it be done temporarily? Well, not using modern nuclear weapons. Forget all those post apocalyptic stories of a radioactive world - after a real nuclear attack most of the radiation would be gone within hours, through days to weeks. After all, Hiroshima and Nagasaki are both thriving modern cities. Local hot spots could last for longer period, perhaps decades, so you would be well advised to have a Geiger counter, or more likely, they get cordoned off. None of that could make the whole world uninhabitable to humans.
Instead you have to look for a weapon specifically designed for this job. Who would be crazy enough to do that? Well not as an actual weapon but as a thought exercise, yes, someone has tried to invent such a bomb.
Theoretically if you could dust the entire Earth with cobalt 60 using cobalt bombs you could make it uninhabitable to humans - except of course in protected areas - for instance inside domes covering areas cleared of the cobalt 60. The idea originated with Leo Szilard - not intended as a serious proposal for a nuclear bomb, but as a way to show theoretically that humans could in the near future have the capability to design a "Doomsday weapon".
Physicist Leo Szilard who first hypothesized the nuclear chain reaction, and patented the idea of a nuclear reactor.
He devised the theoretical idea of a "Cobalt Bomb". The bomb contains a large amount of ordinary cobalt and the neutrons from the blast turn it into dangerous cobalt 60. It's designed to produce less radiation damage in the first few hours, but more radiation damage over time periods of years and decades. Areas affected would only become habitable to humans a century after the impact. It was just a "thought experiment" to show that we could in principle build doomsday bombs. You’d only need a few hundred kilograms of cobalt.
The idea is that cobalt 60 has a long enough half life so that it could spread throughout the Earth's ecosystems before it decays away enough so that it no longer kills people.
In practice it would probably still have a patchy distribution. It’s hard to see how they could explode enough bombs to make sure that every part of the Earth’s surface is dusted with cobalt 60.
Anyway we don't need to worry about cobalt bombs. Two nuclear tests have produced cobalt 60, but not by design. In one case the cobalt came from pellets used as tracers, and in the other case from the steel casing. For more on this see the wikipedia entry on Cobalt Bomb which has lots of cites to follow up.
This is perhaps the closest we have to a doomsday scenario but no such bombs exist. After all it's not to anyone's advantage to make the world uninhabitable. I suppose if you want to fix the nuclear doomsday SF stories you could make the weapons cobalt bombs. That wouldn't work for scenarios that have Earth uninhabitable thousands of years into the future. However it would work if the author only needs Earth to be uninhabitable for decades into the future. If some people were able to survive somehow for as long as a century, underground, or in domed areas cleared of cobalt 60, or because of patchy distribution of the cobalt 60, then after that they'd be able to survive fine out of doors, though with increased cancer risk for a few more decades. That would fit many post apocalyptic science fiction stories. But it ain't going to happen in our world.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODERN BOMBS AND HIROSHIMA / NAGASAKI
Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs were much lower yield than modern bombs. However that doesn’t change the conclusion, as the effects are over soon for the higher yield air burst bombs as well.
Another difference is that Hiroshima and Nagasaki were air bursts, exploding before they hit the ground. A nuclear war between superpowers would involve some ground burst attacks on missile silos and similar, designed to penetrate the ground. Those do o create longer lived hot spots, but they are also more localized. Parts could remain uninhabitable for years later like Bikini Atoll in the Marshall Islands. The inhabitants returned for a while but they found that the radioactivity was accumulating in their food, with too much of it to be safe so they left it and have not yet returned again. The main difference there is that the second Bikini atol test, Baker, was a test beneath the sea. Similarly to a ground attack, it produced a lot more radioactive debris and long lived isotopes.
So, with larger hot spots like that, near places that had ground attacks, it’s not strictly speaking uninhabitable altogether, but the risks for human health are high enough so that one wouldn’t want to live there when you can live in places that don’t expose you to those health risks.
The other way nuclear weapons could make the world a difficult place to live is by causing a nuclear winter. The early 1980s models were shocking in their predictions, of a cooling by 40 to 60 C (70 - 100 F) immediately after the exchange. Scientists thought that would happen right up to the early 1990s. However, the way the smoke behaved during the Kuwait oil fires in 1991 caused the scientists to question their models and they now predict at worst a “nuclear autumn”, with significantly lower temperatures for a few years, but they no longer predict those extremely devastating tens of degrees reductions in temperature.
Based on an extract from my: Doomsday Debunked - Nibiru Is Nuts - What About Nuclear War, Asteroid Impacts, Runaway Warming,... See it for more details and links.
This is the original of the Windows XP desktop image. This apparently is just an ordinary photograph on a special film that enhances bright colour
Photo taken by Chuck O’Rear
Authors site here Wine Photography
...
(more)This is the original of the Windows XP desktop image. This apparently is just an ordinary photograph on a special film that enhances bright colour
Photo taken by Chuck O’Rear
Authors site here Wine Photography
More about it here
Man behind famous Windows XP wallpaper wishes he'd negotiated a better licensing deal
It is now covered in vines
You can visit it on google maps here -
I got the map coords from this article Ever wonder where the Windows XP default wallpaper came from?
See also The story of the Windows XP 'Bliss' desktop theme—and what it looks like today
Also Vivian Lee's answer to What photos look Photoshopped but are actually real?
Microsoft video about it
Yes. at least there are many stories about it, for Tibetan meditators. It’s called the “death samadhi”. I don’t know how they know. But some of these meditators don’t sleep lying down like most of ...
(more)Yes. at least there are many stories about it, for Tibetan meditators. It’s called the “death samadhi”. I don’t know how they know. But some of these meditators don’t sleep lying down like most of us, but rather in a meditation posture. They often sleep in boxes to help keep upright. Here is a photograph of a Tibetan nun in her meditation box which she uses to sleep in
Here is a European nun also in her sleeping box
Seems it’s something you can get used to, surprising though it seems to us, and for them it is a comfortable way to sleep. You’d have to have reasonably flexible legs and knees! I couldn’t do it.
So, if you can do upright sleeping, then dying in an upright meditation posture isn’t so unlikely.
Also, I suppose if you spend much of your life meditating, there is a reasonable chance that you will be meditating when you die. They could also be placed in meditation posture by others.
I’m sure there is more to it than that. The stories go that they can stay in a meditation state even after they have stopped breathing and heart stopped beating. Not rigor mortis. Rather that their body stays in this meditation posture not just for a few hours - but often for several days after they die in the sense as recognized here in the West before. This is said to have happened to Chogyam Trungpa Rimpoche who was one of the first of the Tibetan teachers in the West, so he died in a western hospital, and I don’t know if he got into meditation posture himself or was put into the posture by others - but I’ve heard that one of the doctors who looked after him while he was alive was allowed to feel his heart region during the death samadhi, and said it still felt warm.
If this is real, I don’t know what is going on there in a medical and physical sense.
It used to take two days because they would launch way behind the ISS in their lower and faster orbit and then gradually catch up with it over a couple of days - called “phasing”. It’s a matter of ...
(more)It used to take two days because they would launch way behind the ISS in their lower and faster orbit and then gradually catch up with it over a couple of days - called “phasing”. It’s a matter of timing, if you take two days to get there, you have much more time to do all the maneuvers needed to get exactly to the ISS. Nowadays they usually launch at just the right moment to fly all the way to the ISS within a few hours. But they can still do the older phasing approach as they have enough supplies on board to do it, for instance if the spacecraft misses out one of the automatic burns needed to get to the ISS in only six hours, see Soyuz Capsule with 3-Man Crew Taking Long Road to Space Station After Delay
Nobody really knows what the legal situation is, and space lawyers have different views on it. The US passed domestic law, but this has to be sorted out internationally. When it comes to territory,...
(more)Nobody really knows what the legal situation is, and space lawyers have different views on it. The US passed domestic law, but this has to be sorted out internationally. When it comes to territory, then - no the Moon doesn’t belong to the US. And BTW the first man-made object to land on the Moon was Luna 2 from the Soviet Union. So Russia might have a claim too if we went by the first to get there, but we don’t.
First spacecraft to land on the Moon, Luna 2 on September 13, 1959
No country can lay claim to the Moon. Individuals can of course, you could point to the Moon and say “I claim the Moon” but there’s no reason for anyone else to accept your claim unless it is backed up in some way, and by the OST then no country can back you up. And their countries have to act to make sure their citizens uphold the treaty:
“The activities of non-governmental entities in outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, shall require authorization and continuing supervision by the appropriate State Party to the Treaty. When activities are carried on in outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, by an international organization, responsibility for compliance with this Treaty shall be borne both by the international organization and by the States Parties to the Treaty participating in such organization”
Then there’s the passage in the Outer Space Treaty
“The exploration and use of outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, shall be carried out for the benefit and in the interests of all countries, irrespective of their degree of economic or scientific development, and shall be the province of all mankind. “
The Moon treaty goes a bit further but has only been ratified by a few countries:
“ In addition, the Agreement provides that the Moon and its natural resources are the common heritage of mankind and that an international regime should be established to govern the exploitation of such resources when such exploitation is about to become feasible.”
If we had that agreement or something like it then Chinese, US and other exploitation of resources on the Moon could be regulated in such a way as to make sure that they are managed in a fair way and with some way to make sure that exploitation of the Moon benefits all of mankind. But “as is” the vague wording of the OST doesn’t give it much actual “teeth” and there’s lots of discussion of what the implications of it would be, if anything.
Anyway - Helium 3 is way over hyped at present I think. You get people writing about it as if it was a mature industry and we just need to go to the Moon and “scoop it up”. But it is nowhere near either of those.
The first industry from the Moon if we get one, I think is more likely to be water supplied to LEO and generally - then after that, if there are valuable metals like platinum on the Moon as some think and we can have low cost exports from the Moon as I think is quite likely, those are another possible export.
Yes, the Moon is a source for helium 3, deposited in the regolith by the solar wind, and some say that helium 3 will be of value for fusion power in the future because it is not radioactive and doesn't produce radioactive waste products. If so, small amounts of helium 3 from the Moon could be worth a lot on Earth and be a useful commodity to export. Apollo 17's Harrison Schmidt is a keen advocate of helium 3 mining on at a reasonable rate at a reasonable rate the Moon.
Frank Close wrote an article in 2007 describing this idea as "moonshine" saying it wouldn't work anyway. Frank Close says that in a deuterium - helium 3 tokamak, at normal temperatures for a tokamak, the deuterium helium 3 reaction proceeds so slowly that the deuterium would instead fuse with itself producing tritium and then fuse with the tritium (the original article is here, but it's behind a paywall). For a critical discussion see also the Space Review article The helium-3 incantation
See also Mining the Moon by Mark Williams Pontin. If you can use much higher temperatures, six times the temperature at the centre of the sun by some calculations, the helium 3 will fuse at a reasonable rate, but these are temperatures way beyond what is practical in a tokamak at present. The reason such high temperatures are needed for a tokamak is because the plasma is in thermal equilibrium and has a maxwellian distribution which means that to achieve a few particles at very high temperatures you have to heat up a lot of particles to lower temperatures to fill up the maxwellian distribution so that just a few will react. This is potentially feasible for the lower temperatures of DT but not feasible for the higher temperatures of Helium 3 to Helium 3 fusion.
However if you use electrostatic confinement, a bit like a spherical cathode ray tube with the fusion happening at the center where the negatively charged "virtual cathode" is, then the particles are all at the same high energy and the result is much more feasible with lower power requirements. This is the approach of Gerald Kulcinsky who achieves helium 3 fusion in a reactor 10 cm in diameter. However though it does produce power, it produces only one milliwatt of power for each kW of power input so is a long way from break even at present.
Gerald Kulcinski who has developed a small demonstration electrostatic Helium 3 to Helium 3 fusion reactor 10 cm in diameter. It is far from break-even at present, producing 1 milliwatt of power output for each kilowatt of input. See A fascinating hour with Gerald Kulcinski
Perhaps this line of development will come to something. Perhaps one way or another we will achieve helium 3 fusion as the enthusiasts for helium 3 mining on the Moon hope. However it is early days yet, and we can't yet depend on this based on a future technology that doesn't exist yet.
However even if we do achieve helium 3 fusion, it might not be such a game changer for the lunar economy as you might think. Crawford says (page 25) that to supply all of our energy from Helium 3 would mean mining 5000 square kilometers a year on the Moon, which seems ambitious (and would mean the whole Moon would only last 200 years). So, even if we develop Helium 3 based fusion, and it turns out to be a valuable export, it's probably not going to be a major part of the energy mix.
Even more telling, he also calculates that covering a given area of the Moon with solar panels would generate as much energy in 7 years as you'd get from extracting all the Helium 3 from that region to a depth of three meters.
Also - there are many other ideas being developed for nuclear fusion, such as laser fusion, and the Polywell which has the same advantage that no significant radiation is produced when it uses fusion of boron and hydrogen. I think it is far too soon to know whether or not the helium 3 on the Moon will be an asset in the future when we achieve nuclear fusion power. For a summary, see ESA: Helium-3 mining on the lunar surface.
This doesn't mean that there is no point in helium 3 mining however. As Crawford suggests (page 26), Helium 3 is useful for other things, not just for fusion power. It's used for cryogenics, neutron detection, and MRI scanners, amongst other applications, so some Helium 3 from the Moon could be a valuable export right away, even if it doesn't scale up to the huge quantities you'd need for Helium 3 based power generation on Earth. You'd get it automatically as a byproduct while extracting the more abundant volatiles from the solar wind in the regolith, so it might well be a useful side-line to help support lunar manufacturing economically as part of the mix along with everything else.
At any rate, Helium 3 can’t currently be used as fuel for nuclear fusion - we just don’t have reactors that can do it yet. Some physicists think it will never work as fuel for nuclear fusion. If it does, it’s so spread out through the lunar regolith that the energy from a kilogram of regolith is similar to that available from a kilogram of coal. Of course you don’t have to return all of it to Earth just the Helium 3 but it gives an idea of how large scale an undertaking it would be, similar to mining the same amount of coal as would be needed for all that energy, extracting helium from it, and returning it to Earth. So a little hard to see how that could be economically viable. It would also mean strip mining large areas of the lunar surface eventually.
So one way and another, I don’t think helium 3 is very likely as a lunar export myself - though it could be useful as a biproduct of other lunar mining - IF we have Helium 3 fusion in the future and IF we don’t have some other simpler and easier form of fusion such as e.g. the Polywell using boron etc. It could be useful already in small quantities as a byproduct as we do use helium 3 for some things already without nuclear fusion.
The bit about helium 3 is a section from my Case For Moon First
Dark energy is different from ordinary energy if it exists. It’s a property of space itself, and it's not conserved.
I’m no expert on this but quoting from Sabine Hossenfelder (theoretical physicis ...
(more)Dark energy is different from ordinary energy if it exists. It’s a property of space itself, and it's not conserved.
I’m no expert on this but quoting from Sabine Hossenfelder (theoretical physicis and expert in such things) then for instance, if you take it as the cosmological constant version of dark energy.:
"According to Noether’s theorem there’s a conserved quantity for every (continuous) symmetry. A flat space-time is the same at every place and at every moment of time. We say it has a translational invariance in space and time. These are symmetries, and they come with conserved quantities: Translational invariance of space conserves momentum, translational invariance in time conserves energy.
"In a curved space-time generically neither symmetry is fulfilled, hence neither energy nor momentum are conserved. So, if you take the vacuum energy density and you integrate it over some volume to get an energy, then the total energy grows with the volume indeed. It’s just not conserved. How strange! But that makes perfect sense: It’s not conserved because space expands and hence we have no invariance in time. Consequently, there’s no conserved quantity for invariance in time. "
Dear Dr B: Where does dark energy come from and what’s it made of?
Other ideas here:
First, Buddha didn’t say there was anything wrong with ordinary worldly happiness as such. Except that it is conditional, as you say.
This is what Walpola Rahula says about worldly happiness, basing...
(more)First, Buddha didn’t say there was anything wrong with ordinary worldly happiness as such. Except that it is conditional, as you say.
This is what Walpola Rahula says about worldly happiness, basing his answer on the Pali Canon:
"The Buddha does not deny happiness in life when he says there is suffering. On the contrary he admits different forms of happiness, both material and spiritual, for laymen as well as for monks. In the Anguttara-nikaya, one of the five original Collections in Pali containing the Buddha's discourses, there is a list of happinesses (sukhdni), such as the happiness of family life and the happiness of the life of a recluse, the happiness of sense pleasures and the happiness of renunciation, the happiness of attachment and the happiness of detachment, physical happiness and mental happiness etc.
“But all these are included in dukkha. Even the very pure spiritual states of dhyana (recueillement or trance) attained by the practice of higher meditation, free from even a shadow of suffering in the accepted sense of the word, states which may be described as unmixed happiness, as well as the state of dhjana which is free from sensations both pleasant (sukha) and unpleasant' (dukkha) and is only pure equanimity and awareness—even these very high spiritual states are included in dukkha. In one of the suttas of the Majjhima-nikdya, (again one of the five original Collections), after praising the spiritual happiness of these dhyanas, the Buddha says that they are 'impermanent, dukkha, and subject to change' (anicca dukkha viparinamadbamma). Notice that the word dukkha is explicitly used. It is dukkha, not because there is 'suffering' in the ordinary sense of the word, but because 'whatever is impermanent is dukkha' (yad aniccam tam dukkham). "
So worldly happiness is fine. But it’s still, as you say, conditioned and subject to change. So, even when it is “free from even shadow of suffering in the accepted sense of the word”, it is stiil dukkha. Even if it is just pure equanimity and awareness, still, if it’s a mental state, or trance or condition, it’s subject to change and that makes it dukkha, or unsatisfactory. Not in the ordinary sense of suffering, as there is no such in that state. But just that it is impermanent and subject to change.
So realizing Nirvana is seeing the truth. It’s not the result of anything, and is not a mental state, but just is.
Walpola Rahula put it like this:
"It is incorrect to think that Nirvana is the natural result of the extinction of craving. Nirvana is not the result of anything. If it would be a result, then it would be an effect produced by a cause. It would be sankhata ‘produced’ and ‘conditioned’. Nirvana is neither cause nor effect. It is beyond cause and effect. Truth is not a result nor an effect. It is not produced like a mystic, spiritual, mental state, such as dhyana or samadhi. TRUTH IS. NIRVANA IS. The only thing you can do is to see it, to realize it. There is a path leading to the realization of Nirvana. But Nirvana is not the result of this path.You may get to the mountain along a path, but the mountain is not the result, not an effect of the path. You may see a light, but the light is not the result of your eyesight.
…
In almost all religions the summum bonum can be attained only after death. But Nirvana can be realized in this very life; it is not necessary to wait till you die to ‘attain’ it."
In the “deva or “god”realms” - beings who have immensely long happy lives in Buddhist cosmology but still eventually die- then you just appear in the realm of the devas fully formed as an adult - t...
(more)In the “deva or “god”realms” - beings who have immensely long happy lives in Buddhist cosmology but still eventually die- then you just appear in the realm of the devas fully formed as an adult - they don’t have the problems of being born and growing up in this Buddhist mythology.
I particularly like the story of the frog deva - a frog that was listening to Buddha teaching, just enjoying the sound of his voice, with no understanding, and in the middle of the discourse, then a cowherd who had also come to listen to the Buddha leans a staff on the frog, not knowing that it was there, and accidentally crushes it to death. The frog instantly appears in the god realms, still listening to the Buddha. And Buddha being aware of the various realms also notices him and says “where did you come from?”, and he explains where he came from, and he listens to the rest of the discourse, which of course as a deva he can now understand, and has the realization of a “stream enterer” as a result. He then returns to his new celestial palace at the end of the discourse.
This is in the Mandukadevaputtavimana sutta apparently, see A frog becomes a god
As C Stuart Hardwick said, if it is just oxygen, then algae will do, 18 litres for BIOS-1 for one person. The next step up from that would be to grow food and you don’t need a full ecosystem like B...
(more)As C Stuart Hardwick said, if it is just oxygen, then algae will do, 18 litres for BIOS-1 for one person. The next step up from that would be to grow food and you don’t need a full ecosystem like Biosphere II - you just need 30 square meters of growing area per person and they will not only grow most of their own food but provide all the oxygen they need too.
This shows the chlorella cultivar used in the originally rather secretive Russian BIOS-1 experiment in 1965. Image from this paper. I can't find much by way of details of its construction so far and how it worked. But the principle was simple - supply lots of light to Chlorella algae and it photosynthesizes, absorbs carbon dioxide and produces oxygen. In modern designs, they do this by piping light into the container using light tubes, which gives you a compact design.
In the first experiment it was in a separate room, tended from outside, and supplied all the oxygen for a single volunteer. In BIOS-2 they put the cultivar inside the habitat, recycled other wastes as well, and produced some crops. In BIOS-3 they made the habitat larger, with a crew of 3, and changed to growing crops as their sole source of oxygen.
But if you grow all your own food - well it’s interesting you automatically get enough oxygen to breathe :). And Biosphere II is inefficient in the use of space - you wouldn’t grow trees if your priority is to get enough oxygen for the astronauts. You’d use the most rapidly growing trees you can find, or, why not use rapidly growing food crops instead? You can manage with much less vegetation, just 30 square meters per person, to grow nearly all their own food as well as supply all the oxygen they need, using fast growing crops such as beet, radishes, dwarf wheat (which reaches maturity in a month) etc..
The thing is, plants take in carbon dioxide to grow and produce oxygen. When we eat them or burn them, the carbon reacts with the oxygen to turn it back to carbon dioxide.
If there is nothing else in the system, just plants grown for food, and humans eating them, then if you grow enough food to eat, then the plants that made that food produce more than enough oxygen, You then get crop wastes, but you can just burn those (or compost them) and the equations will still work out.
You might wonder - what about the carbon in feces? Well, feces are actually nearly all water. There’s a small amount of carbon there but nearly all the carbon we eat is turned into carbon dioxide as we eat the food. And if you dry and then incinerate the feces, you return those to carbon dioxide too, completing the cycle.
If the astronauts import food then they won’t get enough oxygen, and in that case you need to supplement it, so you could use the algae in that case.
Biosphere II is an inefficient way to grow food, so though we might well get habitats like that eventually, earlier ones are likely to be more pragmatic.
"Wheat plants of various ages showing the "conveyor" approach that was used in the Bios experiments, Young wheat plants are in the foreground, with more mature plants toward the back." Photo from here
BIOS-3 produced nearly all the food for the crew from 30 square meters (so 6 meters by 5 meters) per person, a conveyor belt system, growing fast cropping plants such as dwarf wheat, radish, beet, etc. that produce their crop within 30 days.
You could grow trees in a larger habitat. Or you can grow them using carbon dioxide supplied from elsewhere. They take away from the total food production by converting CO2 into wood that could otherwise be converted into food. They might be useful in large habitats, e.g. lunar caves, or in the Venus upper atmosphere especially, with lots of carbon dioxide available from the atmosphere - the trees could convert that into building materials for new habitats. Or grown as part of an attempt at duplicating a more extensive ecosystem with other creatures in it, or for decorative reasons, or for fruit and nuts. If they are composted or burnt then they are carbon neutral. If used for wood etc then they would be net producers of oxygen. See my answer to Do trees consume oxygen?
For more on all this including the interesting result that many plants can actually withstand a 14 day night of complete darkness on the Moon and still crop see my
For feeling nausea, nobody knows as we have never done the experiment. We just haven’t spun astronauts fast enough for long enough in zero g for them to feel sick, though we do have some very limit...
(more)For feeling nausea, nobody knows as we have never done the experiment. We just haven’t spun astronauts fast enough for long enough in zero g for them to feel sick, though we do have some very limited data that suggests that they don’t feel nauseous after spinning motions in zero g that would make them feel nauseous on Earth. Also don’t know what level of AG is needed for health. But if we need full g, then if you go by the actual experimental data from space, we can’t rule anything out. All we know is that you don’t get sick after a few minutes of spinning to achieve full g. Anything else on this subject is hypothesis at present. We can work out the physics. However that’s not enough. It is currently impossible to know for sure how a human being would respond to that physics.
We have some data from experiments to study space sickness rather than artificial gravity. These experiments on Skylab involved spinning the astronauts for a few minutes only (as they weren’t meant as experiments in AG).
They showed that the astronauts did not get nauseous or even disorientated, during experiments which made them nauseous both before and after the flight. Tim Peake also demonstrated this anecdotally on the ISS during his recent visit there, though not part as a planned experiment, just in his recreation time. Here he is spinning at about 60 rpm in the ISS. for a couple of minutes, no nausea, only momentary dizziness when he stops.
Only a professional ice skater or similar could do that on Earth, probably. Or people who have a natural tolerance to fast spins (some have a defective vestibular system and are not affected in any way by spins, however fast).
He says he is pretty sure he couldn't tolerate that on Earth. So anecdotally it suggests that we can tolerate very high spin rates in zero g. Taking the radius as 0.25 meters at a guess, his head and feet will be both under full g, his torso around zero g as he spins. Could he spin like this indefinitely? As far as I know, nobody has tested to see how long astronauts on the ISS can spin like this without ill effects.
Note that this also shows that we can tolerate large gravity gradients in our body from zero g at his stomach to 1 g at his head and feet.
If so, it's very promising I think for the use of a short arm centrifuge to counteract health issues of humans in zero g.
The experimenters for the Skylab litter chair experiment hypothesized that the reason their subjects could tolerate back and forth spins and continuous spins without getting nauseous in space was because the otoliths aren't stimulated, because there is no gravity acting in the direction of the spin axis. (See chapter II, Chapter 11, Experiment M131. Human Vestibular Function in Biomedical results from Skylab)
Our otoliths are separate from the vestibular system. Instead of sensing turning motions, they sense linear acceleration.
In any spin on Earth you have these two things at once -
Our otoliths tell us that down is in the direction of the spin axis, offset slightly, depending on the rate of spin.
Meanwhile our eyes and our vestibular system tell us that we are spinning in a different direction. It seems to be a conflict between these.
But in space,
So there is no conflict between the ostoliths and our eyes and vestibular system (which senses spins).
That's what the experimenters hypothesized. But they didn't do any more experiments after that to try to follow it up to see if this was correct or not.
For more details see my Robert Walker's answer to Why not simply create a ship with artificial gravity for the journey to Mars - this is an extract from that which in turn is from the section Need for adventurous experiments in life support and artificial gravity in LEO first from my new book OK to Touch Mars? Europa? Enceladus? Or a Tale of Missteps?
The main traditions of Buddhism are based on the sutras. Buddha didn’t actually say to ignore sacred text. What he said was more subtle than that. The text that is often used as a basis for the ide...
(more)The main traditions of Buddhism are based on the sutras. Buddha didn’t actually say to ignore sacred text. What he said was more subtle than that. The text that is often used as a basis for the idea you can do anything that feels right and call it Buddhism is the Kalama sutra. It’s rather long, but is summarized here by a translator:
“Although this discourse is often cited as the Buddha's carte blanche for following one's own sense of right and wrong, it actually says something much more rigorous than that. Traditions are not to be followed simply because they are traditions. Reports (such as historical accounts or news) are not to be followed simply because the source seems reliable. One's own preferences are not to be followed simply because they seem logical or resonate with one's feelings. Instead, any view or belief must be tested by the results it yields when put into practice; and — to guard against the possibility of any bias or limitations in one's understanding of those results — they must further be checked against the experience of people who are wise.”
So there is nothing wrong with having texts. It’s just that you don’t follow them just because they are texts but test them by the results they yield and also against the experience of people who are wise.
And in fact all the main traditions of Buddhism do have texts and they also have other systems to make sure they are passed on authentically. And the texts, called the sutras, are actually used for just the reason you mention, to make sure we are following Buddha’s teachings correctly. That is to say - that we are actually listening to what he said. Not that we have to do what he says unthinkingly, but to actually listen to his teachings.
It helps guard against those who may say wild and extraordinary things and claim they are “Buddhist”. You can go to the sutras and say “How does what you said fit in with what the Buddhist sutras say”?
So, the complication is that there are different collections of sutras and they don’t all say the same things. The oldest sutras are the ones in the Pali Canon. These may well record the actual teachings of the historical Buddha. There was no writing in Northern India back then. But they had people who were excellent at memorizing. Also - they memorized millions of words, not just as a list of ideas, like a story or narrative. They memorized them word for word. They actually checked that by reciting them in unison together with each other.
It’s generally agreed by everyone that the ancient Vedas were passed on in this way. There are some who say that the Buddhist Pali Canon was not passed on like this but I find it unconvincing myself.
The Buddhist sutras themselves in the Pali Canon say that they also were passed on in this way describing the monks in the Great Assembly after he died reciting the teachings in unison together just as the Brahmins do for the Vedas. Also, when the texts were finally written down, they were pretty much word for word identical in places as far apart as India and China with no evidence that this was due to them copying each other.
Also there is lots of internal evidence that the Pali canon was composed during the historical period appropriate for the Buddha such as the technology described in the sutras, the political geography described (which changed rapidly after Buddha's death), the lack of any mentions of South India which would have been well known not long after Buddha's death and many other very strong arguments in favour of authenticity.
So, well I think myself that is pretty good evidence. Some even of the Pali Canon sutras were composed later (by the same evidence that shows that the others were original). But most date right back to the Buddha. So if you want to follow the teachings much as for the historical Buddha taught them, then look for a Therevadhan teacher, who uses the Pali Canon as their collection of sutras. The monks wear yellow robes.
Other sutras were attributed to the Buddha and his followers, but actually composed at a much later date, these are the Mahayana teachings. So, you might wonder, why would anyone follow those?
Well the thing is that the Buddhist teachings are an evolving thing. Do we follow the teachings as he taught them 500 BC or whenever it was, before invention of writing in northern India? Or do we follow them as they were developed many centuries later in India? Those who follow the mahayana sutras say that these teachings are actually either inherent in what Buddha taught - or maybe even that he did teach like that to some of his students, but those teachings were not recorded in the Pali canon at the time, and centuries later, somehow transmitted all that time from teacher to student, the teachings got written down, backdated to the Buddha. Or perhaps they arose anew at a later date but arose out of his teachings?
Nobody can really say where they came from. But they also lead to a body of texts which are used by the Tibetans, Japanese etc. They are more like an extension of the Pali canon. Vast collections - the Pali Canon itself is huge the size of an encyclopedia. There are many ancient commentaries on them too. Buddhism has been a scholarly tradition since the beginning, really. The first Buddhist university dates back to several centuries before the first universities in Europe. The first university in Europe was University of Bologna founded in 1088.
The first Indian university was the great Nalanda University in northern India. It started as a Vihara founded by King Ashoka several centuries BCE[16]. During the second to third centuries CE the monastery there was gradually transformed into a "Temple of learning" like the medieval monasteries. One of its most famous early students was Nagarjuna, around 100 A.D. The Nalanda University itself was founded by Kumaragupta who lived from AD 415 to 455.
It was a residential university consisting of six colleges already at the time of Xuanzang (602 - 664 CE), increasing to eight colleges by the time of Yijing (monk) (635-713 CE) by which time it had 300 rooms. Its staff included many famous scholars including Dignaga, father of the medieval system of logic, Dharmapala, Santarakshita and Padmasambhava who was professor of Tantras there. It was a seat of learning of international renown at the time with students from places as far away as China, Japan, Tibet, Korea, Java and Sumatra, with 57 students from China, Japan or Korea recorded between 629 and 671. It had between 3,000 and 5,000 students. Though the number of books in the great library of Nalanda was not known, it is estimated to be in the hundreds of thousands.
The Mahayana sutras date back to before then, to the first few centuries CE. Then in the Tibetan tradition at least there’s the idea that new teachings can arise with the inspiration of Buddha - that they are as if Buddha himself taught them, though newly composed. Because they are teachings of awakening and there’s the idea that even if you are not Buddha you can connect to the teachings of awakening, that an inspiration of that nature can break through into your life. But of course you have to be very careful about that because it could easily be a negative inspiration. So to test these new teachings that keep arising, they test them against the Mahayana sutras.
So - that also is authentic, as a way to practice Buddha’s teachings.
They teach in different ways. The Therevadhan path tends to focus on the noble eightfold way, on things you can do to sort out your own problems which is of course where we all have to start. It is all very well having grand plans to help everyone in the world but that’s not much use if you neglect yourself and brush over and ignore all your failings and negative qualities and rush ahead kind of charging into situations based on the idea that because your motivation is good, somehow it is going to work out.
The mahayana path is generally focused more on compassion and wisdom for all beings as your motivation you try to relate to right from the beginning.
It’s not that either is better than the other. Compassion of course is important in all aspects of Buddhism, as is wisdom. It’s just a slightly different focus really.
The Therevadhan teachings also tend to be rather simpler. Which can be good. Both in terms of the understanding of the world where some of the Mahayana traditions can get immensely complex - and the path for the way you relate to others and open out to others, and the imagery too, the Mahayana traditions can become very complex. But maybe for some people they don’t need all that complexity. Maybe some very simple teaching is all they need and the rest arises naturally?
There are simpler teachings within the Mahayana too, for instance Zen Buddhism is famous for the simplicity of the way it is taught. Despite this simplicity it is still a sutra tradition. It is based on essentially the same Buddhist ideas. It is just that the ideas are often taught in a much simpler way. You get teachings like that in any of the traditions, but the Zen Buddhists kind of specialize in those very simple approaches.
So it’s really a matter of what works with you. Any of the main traditions that rely on sutras are authentic. They all claim a lineage back to the Buddha himself, from teacher to student. They all have the same core ideas and similar core sutras.
For those who become monks or nuns, the Therevadhans are the most strict, observe all the rules, even the most minor ones, if they can. The Mahayana ones tend to be less strict, of course keep the most important vows but for instance, may not wear a robe at times, may eat food after midday (one of the rules is to never eat after midday), etc. Buddha said that some of the rules are minor and can be ignored but he never said which, by tradition Ananda forgot to ask him. So Therevadhans tend to err towards caution and treat them all as if they were major if at all possible. While the Mahayana monks will drop the ones that seem minor, including even such things as whether to wear robes, if they feel that they are creating barriers in how they to relate to others in society, making things awkward for others in any way and so on.
The Japanese “monks and nuns” are the least strict. They take a vow based on the bodhisattva vow which means they don’t have to be celibate - they don’t take a vow of celibacy and indeed are often married. But they call themselves monks and nuns because their lives are dedicated to the path of the Buddha.
Well the usual response is that the ship would be too large and expensive. But actually, the simplest form of artificial gravity in both science fiction and in real world proposals consists just of...
(more)Well the usual response is that the ship would be too large and expensive. But actually, the simplest form of artificial gravity in both science fiction and in real world proposals consists just of a spaceship tethered to a counterweight. This has often been proposed for missions to Mars and beyond. It hardly adds much mass and the tether can be as long as you please, tethers strong enough to do this are very lightweight nowadays. And we could test this easily, within a year if anyone wanted to. The Russian Sergey Korolev had a plan to test the physiological effects of AG on humans in 1965-6 with a Voskhod spacecraft, using its final stage as a counterweight, and the main reason it didn’t happen is that he died unexpectedly in 1966.
But there may be an even simpler approach. This is barely mentioned in science fiction, it’s the idea to have a small centrifuge as small as maybe even just 1.4 meters in radius, inside a space station or spaceship. That idea has been proposed several times, and up to the Columbia crash there was a serious plan to send a centrifuge module to the ISS, and then even after that, there was a serious proposal to add a small human powered centrifuge within one of the existing modules, but neither of these ever flew.
I think it is too early to build such a spaceship because we haven’t done any research into artificial gravity in LEO for humans. Zilch, nada. Just hasn’t been done. What data we have is promising but our research has been zero g all the way for several decades now.
Artificial gravity for plants yes. Just a hundredth of a g is enough to change expression of numerous genes in plant cells. It seems likely that agriculture under even a hundredth of a g for plants could solve many issues with zero g agriculture. Rats yes. Rats don’t get nauseous when spinning, so they have been tested in small centrifuges in space and it does indeed prevent just about all the physiological issues with zero g. But humans, for some unfathomable reason, no. We haven’t even studied the effect of a hundredth of a g on humans.
IN MORE DETAIL
The data we have so far is very promising. We have some data from experiments to study space sickness rather than artificial gravity. These experiments on Skylab involved spinning the astronauts for a few minutes only (as they weren’t meant as experiments in AG).
They showed that the astronauts did not get nauseous or even disorientated, during experiments which made them nauseous both before and after the flight. Tim Peake also demonstrated this anecdotally on the ISS during his recent visit there, though not part as a planned experiment, just in his recreation time. Here he is spinning at about 60 rpm in the ISS. for a couple of minutes, no nausea, only momentary dizziness when he stops.
Only a professional ice skater or similar could do that on Earth, probably. Or people who have a natural tolerance to fast spins (some have a defective vestibular system and are not affected in any way by spins, however fast).
He says he is pretty sure he couldn't tolerate that on Earth. So anecdotally it suggests that we can tolerate very high spin rates in zero g. Taking the radius as 0.25 meters at a guess, his head and feet will be both under full g, his torso around zero g as he spins. Could he spin like this indefinitely? As far as I know, nobody has tested to see how long astronauts on the ISS can spin like this without ill effects.
If so, it's very promising I think for the use of a short arm centrifuge to counteract health issues of humans in zero g.
The experimenters for the Skylab litter chair experiment hypothesized that the reason their subjects could tolerate back and forth spins and continuous spins without getting nauseous in space was because the otoliths aren't stimulated, because there is no gravity acting in the direction of the spin axis. (See chapter II, Chapter 11, Experiment M131. Human Vestibular Function in Biomedical results from Skylab)
Our otoliths are separate from the vestibular system. Instead of sensing turning motions, they sense linear acceleration.
In any spin on Earth you have these two things at once -
Our otoliths tell us that down is in the direction of the spin axis, offset slightly, depending on the rate of spin.
Meanwhile our eyes and our vestibular system tell us that we are spinning in a different direction. It seems to be a conflict between these.
But in space,
So there is no conflict between the ostoliths and our eyes and vestibular system (which senses spins).
That's what the experimenters hypothesized. But they didn't do any more experiments after that to try to follow it up to see if this was correct or not.
This has major implications for artificial gravity, as it could mean that humans could spin even in short arm centrifuges.
And these don’t need to be massive constructions, like they are on Earth. Remember Tim Peake was spun around by another astronaut even with no centrifuge at all. Try doing that on Earth. We could do preliminary experiments in AG right now, without any centrifuges at all. Ask the astronauts to spin each other as for Tim Peake and measure things like the effects on their heart rate, blood count etc. Also get some preliminary data on how long they can spin for, without ill effects. Two minutes is fine. What about ten minutes? An hour? A day?
When an astronaut goes into space their blood count goes down and their heart rate goes up almost right away. So why not, for starters, see what happens to those two parameters when they are spun like Tim Peake for a few minutes at a time? Does that have any effect? They are not even doing rudimentary experiments like that. No data at all since Skylab.
But - better than that, why not send up a light weight centrifuge to the ISS. The problem of course is finding a space for it now. The interior is packed full of other things. We need something like this ideally
Just a crude 3D drawing I did - shows two possible orientations of a hammock like device - fastened with cables to a central pivot. You’d need some way to set the astronaut spinning, but at a pinch you can just have another astronaut give them occasional pushes, as with Tim Peake. So you could do this experiment, if you can find the space, with just two pivots like that, some cable, and a hammock for the astronaut to lie in during the experiment.
It wouldn’t take much work though to design some kind of a motor. Remember it only has to keep them spinning in zero g. Just gentle tugs from time to time. Even some kind of a motor in the center with an arm that extends a meter along the cable and gently pushes against it. If the astronaut wants to stop, they are moving only at meters per second relative to the walls. They just need to reach out and gently touch something as they spin, to slow down and it should be easy to design in some kind of railing for them to grab, or some kind of braking system to make that easier.
The cable only needs to be strong enough to hold the astronaut’s weight under full g. So we are not talking about any kind of super materials there. A cable as strong as the cable for a child’s swing would be fine.
MOMENTUM CONTROL
Ideally you need a counterweight in the floor or ceiling spinning the opposite direction so that when you set it spinning there is no net effect of the ISS spinning the opposite direction. But note, if you start an astronaut spinning, it causes the ISS to start to spin very gently in the opposite direction. Nothing more happens during the spin. When you stop the spin of the astronaut, then this annuls the effect of the previous angular momentum change so the ISS would then stop spinning.
So the ISS momentum control gyroscopes should be able to handle this fine, a small change of angular momentum in one direction at the start of the experiment which they would automatically annul, then a small change in the opposite direction, which once more they would annul returning to their previous state.
TOO SOON TO DESIGN A SPINNING SPACE STATION
So, it is far too soon to design a large spinning space station. For all we know, it might be that all you need to keep the astronauts healthy is enough space to spin a hammock like this inside the space ship. If so, all those big spinning designs are only a convenience for walking and agriculture and not needed for health.
We also don’t know what level of artificial gravity humans need. It might be that lunar gravity is just fine to keep us healthy, it could even be better for us than ordinary gravity. Or it could be better for some people. We only have a few days of data per astronaut from the Apollo astronauts with 1960s and 1970s technology on the effects of lunar gravity on human health from missions that were not primarily focused on this.
Maybe even a hundredth of gravity has significant health benefits for humans. Or maybe we need nearly full g. We just have no data on this yet. Experiments on Earth with people lying head down to simulate just some of the zero g health effects, then spinning them - they have very limited relevance at present. It might be that this does simulate some of the health effects of artificial gravity in space. But again, they might not. We don’t have any data from space to use to assess whether it is a good model of it. After all the body is always under full gravity indeed, somewhat hyper g during those experiments.
And we don’t know what spin rate humans can tolerate in space long term. From Tim Peake’s anecdotal experiment, clearly we can tolerate a spin rate large enough to cause full gravity for a few minutes. Depending on how long we can tolerate this for, we could have
Remember also that we can always do any of these with levels of AG less than full g which may well be beneficial too, even possibly, more beneficial than full g (we just don’t know). The first one, the AG toilet, particularly seems something that surely we’d be able to tolerate. AG for eating food also, it seems reasonably likely that they could tolerate that much. Eat their food in a spinning hammock. It’s never been tried in space. If they simply don’t get nauseous in zero g while spinning, then why not?
The current space agencies sending humans into space NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA (China) are just not interested in doing these tests and experiments even though researchers in artificial gravity on Earth have often called for them. They seem to think it involves expensive equipment, that they have to build a human centrifuge module to do it.
But as I said, you don’t need any extra equipment at all (except medical monitoring devices which they have already) to make the first steps in studying effects on humans of AG, after all the astronauts are already testing it anecdotally. They could start on that today. It is just that nobody is doing any measurements to find out what the physiological effects are of spinning in the ISS, or testing to see, not just anecdotally, but through hard data, to follow up on those early Skylab experiments that showed that we can tolerate spins more readily n space than on the ground.
So far all we have are a few experiments with Skylab which were done rigorously, but not with a focus on AG, rather with a focus on understanding space sickness - and Tim Peake saying he is pretty sure that he wouldn’t have been able to tolerate this on Earth, but no control experiments before and after, no monitoring, nothing.
We also have the early out of control Gemini where a spacecraft span faster and faster for a few minutes until they got it back into control which was not a planned experiment and there was no physiological testing.
But it has huge potential benefits for astronaut health and in other ways too, if we can tolerate even minutes at high spin rate. I think maybe when we get commercial space, if not before, we may get the first tests of this idea. Think what a difference it will make to space tourists if they have a centrifuge for eating and for the toilet, and for sleeping (if desired). Surely we won’t get these ideas ignored for ever.
WHAT WE DON’T KNOW
We don’t know
I don’t know why they aren’t doing this. It seems to be some kind of a blind spot. To do it you would have to go through the procedure of proposing an experiment and it getting accepted which is quite a cumbersome thing for the ISS. Their schedule is so full already.
PLANNED EXPERIMENTS NEVER SENT INTO SPACE
Now, it hasn’t been completely ignored, but it’s not been a priority enough to send these experiments into space. Artificial gravity was a priority for the ISS up until the loss of Columbia in 2003, It was proposed first, in NASA Ames, then later on the project was passed on to the Japanese space agency, then called NASDA, now called JAXA, who built a Centrifuge Accommodations Module - an entire new module designed to study effects of artificial gravity - which however never flew because the Space Shuttle was needed to get it into orbit. See page 55 of this paper.
Then in 2010 there were proposals to send a smaller centrifuge to the ISS, to be located within one of the existing modules - but it never happened. Here is a 2011 idea for a 1.4 meter radius centrifuge to be located in the permanent multipurpose module:
Sketch of the AGREE centrifuge for the ISS. From page 15 of Design and Validation of a Compact Radius Centrifuge Artificial Gravity Test Platform. It would have replaced the four racks at the end of the Permanent Multipurpose Module. Astronauts would cycle in a seated position. This is one exercise excellent for health which you can do with an extremely compact radius centrifuge like this. Chris Trigg concludes: "Given the compact design, subject positioning, available sensors, tested accuracies, and validated operations, the MIT Compact Radius Centrifuge represents one of the most unique yet realistic centrifuges currently in available for artificial gravity research. It is hoped that through these future studies the MIT CRC will provide a better understanding of the effects and capabilities of an inflight-centrifuge, and perhaps contribute in some small way to progressing towards the inevitable trip to Mars. "
a sketch for a human powered artificial gravity in the ISS .
It’s not that different from the spinning hammock idea. I am sure this will happen eventually, it is just very very low on their list of priorities. The topmost priority for the ISS for human factors research is research into effects of zero gravity on humans and into ways of ameliorating those effects during long duration missions in zero gravity.
If just for convenience of tourists of a centrifuge toilet, eating areas and sleeping areas, if nothing else, I expect it to be rather higher in the list of priorities for commercial flight when those start to happen, especially once we get longer duration commercial flight and space hotels in LEO.
LONG TETHER CENTRIFUGE
There is another way also that we can explore artificial gravity in space. This is another thing we could test, pretty much right away. We could have the experiment running probably within a year if there was the political will to do it. I'd follow Joe Carroll's idea of an artificial gravity research gravity in LEO. It can start off as simple as just one space module with a counterweight. And indeed the first experiments are even simpler than that. He has been advocating it for years. He's an expert on space tethers and several of his tethers have flown in space.
The idea actually dates back to the 1960s. We now know that Sergey Korolev had a plan to tether a Voskhod with its spent final stage which he put forward in 1965-6. It was going to be a 20 day flight to upstage the Americans. It would have included a pilot, and a physician and the artificial gravity experiments would have lasted for 3=4 days during the flight. He died unexpectedly in January 1966 and the mission was postponed to February 1966 then cancelled outright. So we came very close to doing this experiment way back in 1966. (See page 17 of this thesis).
Apart from that we only have the Gemini tether experiment which generated a level of micro gravity too low for the astronauts to sense it.
Joe Caroll's idea similarly is to start with a tether spin experiment with a module tethered to its final stage, which goes into orbit anyway. The way he does it, all the delta v put into spinning up the assembly get released at the end of the experiment. This boosts the spacecraft when the tether is released as well as achieving a controlled re-entry of the final stage into the Pacific (at present its reentry is uncontrolled). It uses no extra fuel unless the tether is severed by space debris, which from his experience in improving tether design is now a very low probability event. He would only use the excess fuel carried by the Soyuz in event that more is needed than expected during the launch, and use it only if not needed (usual situation|). This means that the Soyuz would still get to the ISS even in that worst case scenario.
It can be designed to be safe and could be done right away, as quickly as the Gemini tether mission was put together, for a near future crew mission to the ISS. They'd use the longer phasing approach of several days, so you could test several days of artificial gravity. The Soyuz TMA or any other crewed spacecraft can do Joe Carroll's tether spin on the way to the ISS, deliberately use the longer two day phasing approach to get to the ISS and do your first experiments on the way. The cost wouldn't be much as human spaceflight experiments go, just to add a tether to a Soyuz TMA mission that is going to the ISS anyway. They still have the older two day approach as a fallback option so that should be no problem either. They would be able to cut the tether at any time and continue in zero g if there were any issues arising during the experiments.
Though this would be a short experiment, there are many things you can test in a short mission. It would of course test things such as tether dynamics and tether spin up. Also radio communications during tether spins, and orientation of the panels to achieve adequate solar power throughout the orbit.
Also, in particular, it would give us the first real data on spin tolerances of humans in artificial gravity long term. It's a different experiment from the short arm centrifuges in the ISS, because these can be much longer tethers, far too long to fit inside the ISS, so with slower spin rates. Also the artificial gravity would be continuous rather than intermittent. I think we need to explore both, as we have no idea which is going to be most effective for keeping humans healthy. Again there is no way we can test the differing effects of continuous versus intermittent artificial gravity on Earth, except as hyper-gravity with the Earth's gravity acting along the spin axis on top of the artificial gravity.
This video shows a 600 meter tether at 1 rpm joining a Soyuz TMA to its final stage to achieve lunar gravity. Even the most highly susceptible people have no problems with 1 rpm in rotating room experiments on the Earth long term. So probably this would be fine for everyone in space also - that is if the Earth experiments are a reasonable guideline, which nobody knows of course (that's why we need to do the experiment). There are some indications that in space, with spins around a horizontal axis (above your head) and no gravity pulling sideways along the rotation axis, that we can tolerate spins better than on Earth. Though the data is very limited so far.
This video is done in Orbiter, a remarkable space mission simulator by Dr. Martin Schweiger with lots of add ons contributed by enthusiasts.
Thanks to Gattispilot, for making the tethers, and for techy advice about how to attach everything together.
Note that the video shows an "eyeballs out" configuration. The tests would only go from low g up to full g, but still, this is not the most comfortable orientation for the crew. Joe Carroll's plan is for an "eyeballs in" configuration. It's just that for techy reasons I found it much easier to position the Soyuz in the simulator in this "eyeballs out" orientation . The tether would be brighter than this, and you may notice a cube at the center of gravity of the tether - this is just to indicate where the center of gravity is and would not be there in reality.
Based on these very early tether spin experiments, we can answer basic questions such as, can humans tolerate spinning for two days, and if so what tether length and spin rate is tolerated? (The experiment is designed so it is easy to abort from it at any time - you just cut the tether, and then continue to the ISS). And what are the immediate effects on the human body of artificial gravity? What is the gravity prescription for health (what g level, how many hours a day or do we need it full time) and how easy is it to apply the desired levels using AG?
Another experiment you could do in the near future is a tether experiment launched from the ISS. The crew would take the crew module to the ISS with the final stage still attached. Then to do an experiment, they leave the ISS, fly far enough away from the ISS so that a severed tether won't endanger the station, spin up, do the experiment for several days, then spin down and return to the ISS. This idea was suggested by Tim Cole in 2012.
Based on those preliminary results from the Soyuz TMA, or any other crewed capsule that goes to orbit with a third stage which you can use as a counterweight, you'd work towards designing a larger AG research lab in the future for longer duration studies. It might be based around using the newer modules from the ISS when it is decommissioned, for a hub for spacecraft to dock to and for zero g research, and then tethered habitats for the crew going round it. If it gets more elaborate, perhaps it would also use spent final stages, fitted out in advance as "wet workshops" like the early ideas for Skylab.
This then would create a small facility in orbit. It doesn't need to be a big hundred billion dollar facility like the ISS, just a small space station to start with, which can also be a basis for a staging post in LEO later on. It could also be a facility for research into closed systems, growing plants and so on. It would have a science component of course, like the ISS, but the main objective would be human factors. It would be forward looking, helping us to find out what role humans can play in space in the future. Which of course would have science benefits in turn. Once we know more about what humans can do and how best to support them, we can then send them on science expeditions further and further afield into our solar system.
It could have a zero gravity module attached to the hub. So, there's no reason why you can't combine zero gravity with artificial gravity in the same station.
It would start small, based on this idea that we are still experimenting, and are not yet very experienced in space travel. At this stage, I think we need to try out ideas, and lots of them, to see what works. This could lead to advances that we would never get if we proceed in a linear planned out way with some grand plan for the future, based only on the knowledge we have so far.
The same small space station in low Earth orbit would be an ideal place to test methods for life support for longer duration missions on the Moon or further afield. Again if it is in LEO you have easy access to it from Earth. Because it is a small space station, you could do this at the same time as human missions further afield, say, to the Moon. It could even be useful right away as a place for astronauts to go to first, to disembark from rockets launched from Earth and to transfer to spaceships traveling from LEO to the Mon.
It doesn't have to have a continual human presence. That is one of the things that makes the ISS so expensive. Make it largely automated and controlled from Earth, so that it can be left in orbit unoccupied for months on end in between experiments. If astronauts stay healthy in some level of artificial gravity, and if we can perfect biologically closed systems so that they produce all their own food and oxygen, then you could send them supplies only once a year, perhaps, or less, and then you could start to occupy it continuously. So then the costs would go right down, and typically at least some of the astronauts would stay up there for several years at a time. It is not a commitment to billions of dollars a year, but rather, you occupy it and use it as needed as you find out more.
One interesting idea for interplanetary missions, the delta v in an interplanetary tether spin can be used as an abort scenario for a mission to Mars orbit. If you set up the tether spin right, you can boost straight back to Earth - in an emergency - by cutting the tether at the right moment in its tether spin when it reaches Mars. Here is a paper about that idea: Artificial gravity and abort scenarios via tethers for human missions to Mars.
You can also maintain artificial gravity with a tether spin like that even through insertion burns, so you don’t have to think in terms of cutting the tether or reeling in the counterweight when you get to Venus, Mars, Jupiter, Mercury etc. You can just continue spinning for AG all the way through the insertion burn and again also for the transfer burn to get back to Earth. See "Method to Maintain Artificial Gravity during Transfer Maneuvers for Tethered Spacecraft"
This is from the section Need for adventurous experiments in life support and artificial gravity in LEO first from my new book OK to Touch Mars? Europa? Enceladus? Or a Tale of Missteps? which I am working on at present. It is nearly finished :). I have rewritten the first part of that section here, with formatting, copy editing, some new points, and will include this rewrite back into the book when I next work on it.
A water world needs an atmosphere, or some other way to keep the water from evaporating. If the water is exposed to the vacuum of space it will soon evaporate, very quickly, at a rate of over 20 km...
(more)A water world needs an atmosphere, or some other way to keep the water from evaporating. If the water is exposed to the vacuum of space it will soon evaporate, very quickly, at a rate of over 20 km of depth of water every day. But that’s not really an issue if it has an atmosphere as well - which it could retain if it has a rocky core which can generate a magnetic field to protect it.
Another solution is to have a surface covered with an organic scum which would work even in a vacuum. If you take a comet, which is nearly completely ice and dry ice and similar volatiles like ammonia, somehow get it into a near circular orbit without all the ice evaporating, and let it have an organic scum covering it making it nearly impervious to evaporation, it could be liquid water all the way through.
So that shows you could have a very tiny pure water world. The main thing is, how do you get it close to the sun since it has to form much further out (or it lost all its water long ago) and that indeed is a problem for Earth too.
Another way to get a pure water world is to take any icy moon, such as Europa, Enceladus etc and warm them up. That might happen naturally indeed as our sun gets hotter. Eventually perhaps it will get so hot that Europa becomes a water world. It’s ocean would then be easily deep enough to cover any features in its underlying rocky core. The main question then would be, how long would it last as a stable water world? Ceres, which seems to have lots of ice in its crust, might become a water world first of all. Perhaps in a future with a hotter sun, our own solar system might have many dwarf planet water worlds.
Europa has a very deep ice crust with probably a 100 km deep ocean beneath. As our Sun warms up it may become a dwarf moon planet water world.
In theory you can have quite large planets that consist only of water all the way through.
I worked out with a rough calculation that we can have an ice free planet of pure water with temperatures of -0.16 °C and radius of around 2,127 km or at a temperature of 81.85 °C and radius of about 3,982 km.
That’s for fresh water. A salty ocean would stay liquid at lower temperatures and higher pressures.
Compare the diameter of our Moon of 3,474 km, so it seems you could have a planet that’s a bit larger than our Moon, entirely of water, and still be habitable for at least some microbes. Indeed Hyperthermophiles have optimal temperatures above 80 °C (176 °F).
If it gets larger then it can still consist of water all the way through except that the center of the planet is Ice VI (ice-six).
If it is close enough to its star, and covered in a thick layer of organic scum, then it wouldn’t need a magnetic field and it could stay liquid just through the external heat of its star.
See my Do water planets exist?
No, Elon Musk hasn’t taken anything into account or if he has, he hasn’t shared his discoveries. In his speeches about it, he is only focused on getting the colonists to Mars. His idea is you could...
(more)No, Elon Musk hasn’t taken anything into account or if he has, he hasn’t shared his discoveries. In his speeches about it, he is only focused on getting the colonists to Mars. His idea is you could sell your house for $200,000, buy a ticket to a "new world" on Mars, and set up home there, with no other financial support needed, just your ticket out there by analogy with settlers of the New World. But Mars is no “New World”. It has no crops, no plants, no native humans, no running water, no air, night time temperatures that regularly get cold enough for carbon dioxide to freeze out of the atmosphere as dry ice even in the “tropics”, high levels of ionizing radiation on the surface, especially if you are unlucky enough to get caught out in a solar storm, dust storms that can block out 99% of the sunlight for weeks on end, and most fundamentally, you can’t breathe, even with an oxygen mask, but need a full body pressure suit like the ones the Apollo astronauts used on the Moon just to breathe..
If you've only read the articles and books, and listened to Mars colonization enthusiasts, as they wax lyrical in realms of fantasy about future Mars cities and a terraformed Mars, you may not realize that there are others who are profoundly skeptical about it all, bringing a perhaps sobering dose of common sense. Paul Spudis, senior staff scientist at the Lunar and Planetary institute in Houston, and author of The Value of the Moon: How to Explore, Live, and Prosper in Space Using the Moon's Resources. is particularly scathing about these ideas of a Martian colony in the near future. If you haven't come across these views before, his Delusions of a Mars Colonist may give you an interestingly different perspective.
"So aside from the inconvenient facts that we don’t know how to safely make the voyage, how to land on the planet, what the detailed chemistry of the soil is, or if we can access potable water, whether we can then grow food locally, or how to build habitats to shield us from the numbing cold and hostile surface environment, don’t know what protection is needed due to the toxic soil chemistry, or how to generate enough electrical power to build and operate an outpost or settlement – in spite of these annoying details that make this idea prohibitive, the creation of a Mars colony within a decade is marketed to the public as if the plans had already been drawn up."
..." With flashy artwork depicting futuristic cities, sleek flying cars, and lush green fields resplendent under transparent crystal domes (in startling contrast to the red-hued surrounding desert of the martian surface) it is simply assumed that a human colony on Mars will evolve into some kind of off-Earth utopia."
"But how will these future Mars inhabitants make a living? And by that, I mean what product or service will they offer that anybody on Earth will want? If you think that the answer is autarky (complete economic isolation and self-sufficiency), then you are imagining an economy (and likely, a political state) in which North Korea is a free market, pluralistic paradise by comparison. People who migrate to Mars need more than food and shelter – they will need imports from Earth, material and intellectual products designed to enrich and refine life on the frontier. What will they have of value to trade or to sell for these imports?"
..." Much is made of the possible economic value of “information,” but it is not clear that Mars is particularly rich in factual data marketable to those back on Earth, although a martian pioneer might have desperate need of it – which would make them their own “customers” and exacerbate the economic disparity of the colony to an even greater degree."
The Mars enthusiasts' plans get particularly sketchy when they cover the economics of a Mars colony (while Moon firsters tend to cover lunar economics in great detail). There is only one short, and perhaps not very convincing chapter on this in Case for Mars. This relies on exports of intellectual property rights by the inventive Mars colonists as one of the most important ways to pay for the colony.
You've sold your house on Earth - to pay for your trip - but you still need somewhere to live on Mars. Is he going to provide free houses on Mars for all his colonists? Surely not. A house on Mars would be vastly more expensive than one on Earth. He would no longer be making a profit on every colonist, but rather, an immense loss. Even Elon Musk couldn't sustain a business shipping a hundred colonists to Mars at a time while making a loss of millions of dollars per colonist.
Also, it's not much use being on Mars without an EVA spacesut. There are two main kinds of spacesuit, the IVA suit you wear inside a spacecraft, e.g. during launch, designed to protect you if you get a loss of pressure, and the EVA suit which protects your for missions outside your spacecraft or habitat (Extra Vehicular Activities). You would need both, but the EVA suit is the most expensive of the two. It's a little hard to get hold of unit cost estimates for a spacesuit, as they are hardly consumer items yet, but as a rough guide, it will set you back $2 million as the approximate cost of making a spare EMU for the ISS. That's not including the design cost, just the cost for someone to make it, given a design. It requires about 5,000 hours of work and would take someone who had all the necessary skills about two and a half years to build, given supply of all the parts and materials needed, a long job involving many complex intricate components, not unlike building a spaceship. Basically it is a very small mobile spaceship with its own independent life support. It currently costs $100,000 per astronaut just to fit the airtight bladder inside their gloves to help reduce the risk of them losing their fingernails as a result of the stiffness of the gloves, and to make the gloves a bit more comfortable.
For an idea of the cost of a suit including design, a 1998 Washington post report says that NASA paid $10.4 million per suit for it's initial order of twelve EMU suits, and the Chinese EVA spacesuits are reported as costing $4.4 million each. The Apollo spacesuits cost less per person but were less capable and only needed to last for three EVAs each. Your suit also will need to be maintained and repaired, which itself is a tricky job, and it has a finite life too, the 1998 EMUs were certified for 25 space walks each before they needed to be returned to Earth for expensive overhaul. A Mars suit would need to have a longer design life than that surely. We don't really have the technology of a durable, low maintenance deep space suit capable of doing large numbers of space walks yet, which is likely to require many new innovations. So, our reality is a fair bit away yet from the spacesuits of science fiction.
Suitsat - a Russian Orlon suit that reached the end of its useful life, discarded as a satellite experiment. With current technology at least, your "Mars suit", as complex as a small spaceship, would probably cost around $2 million to build, not including design costs, would need a lot of maintenance, and after using it for a couple of dozen EVAs, it would need to be discarded and replaced by a new one, or sent back to Earth for reservicing. Is it true that Mars colonists could pay for their spacesuits, and everything else they need, through their inventions which they sell back to Earth?
Then, to survive in your habitat you need complex life support too. It's not like an aqualung with an endless supply of air. You need to have carbon dioxide scrubbed all the time as we can't survive long if levels build up to as high as 1% of the atmosphere, which doesn't take long in a small enclosed habitat. Many other noxious gases like hydrogen sulfide and sulfur dioxide will build up in the habitat too, like "sick building syndrome" to the nth degree. You can't just open a few windows to air your house.
How are you going to pay for all that technology, which also is likely to need a fair bit of servicing? You need solar power, you need batteries, or nuclear power to survive dust storms that blot out the sun. Then you have to have a habitat that can hold in the atmosphere at a pressure of ten tons per square meter outwards pressure. You also need radiation shielding meters thick covering it to protect from cosmic radiation and solar storms. How much does that kind of a "house" cost to build? You can't build it on Mars, except the shielding, the rest has to be imported from Earth. Also if it is anything like the ISS, it has a finite life. After a few decades you will need to import a new "house" to replace the old one which is now aged so much in the harsh space environment, surrounded by vacuum, huge temperature changes every day, that it is no longer worth repairing.
Nothing grows there. You are suddenly in the middle of a desert, with no water, maybe ice but it has to be melted to be used, a few rocks, and most difficult of all, no air to breathe. You never need to think about how to get air to breathe when colonizing on Earth. Without a pressurized spacesuit you can't even go outside to repair your habitat, so the spacesuit is vital. The average temperatures are the same as Antarctica, but it's much worse than that sounds, because the temperature swings are so extreme between day and night. It's so cold that carbon dioxide freezes out as dry ice / water ice frosts in the morning for 100 days of the two Earth year long Mars year even in the tropics. You get dust storms every two years which sometimes blot out the sun completely for weeks on end. If you somehow could take one of the coldest driest deserts on Earth, the Atacama desert, and elevate it to a height of 30 kilometers on Earth, you'd have the same atmospheric pressure as the lowest points on the Mars surface, that is still far more habitable than Mars (still a little oxygen in the atmosphere, more sunlight, no dust storms, easy access from Earth, ozone layer and magnetosphere to protect you somewhat), The top of Mount Everest (at 8.848 km above sea level) is far more hospitable than Mars. And how do you pay for it? Elon Musk's idea is that the colonists pay through inventing things.
Perhaps, as he says, Mars would have a labour shortage with jobs in short supply - but what job is going to apy you hundreds of millions of dollars to pay for your habitats and spacesuits on Mars, and their maintenance and repair and replacements when they wear out? And what exports will Mars have to pay for all those imports?
Well, Elon Musk shares Robert Zubrin's ideas that the Martian colonists in such tough situations will be so inventive they will invent a stream of inventions that transform life on Earth and earn them huge amounts of money to pay for their colony. I suppose it is understandable that he'd find this idea compelling ,considering his own inventiveness. It's based on analogies with the technological inventiveness of early settlers in the US. Again this seems bordering on fantasy to me. Surely it will be mainly the other direction, that with all their complex technology, which they will need just to survive at all, they will depend tremendously on the many discoveries we made on Earth? Even Elon Musk with all his inventiveness and business nous would not be able to pay to support everyone in a Mars colony, and he hasn't suggested that he hopes to do so.
This contains material from my OK to Touch Mars? Europa? Enceladus? Or a Tale of Missteps? which is work in progress, though nearly finished.
I’ve not been to the US so not by direct comparison but from what I’ve heard, more footpaths, easier access to the countryside, more cycleways. England is covered by a network of ancient footpaths ...
(more)I’ve not been to the US so not by direct comparison but from what I’ve heard, more footpaths, easier access to the countryside, more cycleways. England is covered by a network of ancient footpaths and although you are not allowed to walk across anyone’s ground except on a footpath, you find footpaths that lead almost anywhere you want to go.
It also has a strictly enforced green belt policy. Around every city, town or even a village there is a boundary area where you can’t build houses unless in exceptional circumstances. And outside of that, in the countryside it is very difficult to build anywhere unless there is a house or a shed there already in which case you can build a house to replace a smaller house or shed so long as it isn’t too much larger than it. The countryside is covered in “planning zones” so in some of them you have more leeway to build than others, but generally the places where it’s easiest to build new houses are actually inside existing towns or villages.
So - you don’t get many houses along roads or streets in the countryside. Just occasional villages, and houses here and there usually old houses or places where there have been houses for decades at least. So lots of fields and woodlands that go right up to the roads, and then lots of footpaths, which are often centuries old criss-crossing those fields.
In Scotland then you also have a “right to roam”. Anyone can walk anywhere - right through a field, no need to ask permission. A landowner can stop you if you might cause harm to their livelihood by walking across their fields but this is rare. Mainly - it’s a case that in the mountainous areas you need to take care where you walk during the season when they shoot the stags and hinds (which they have to do, whether as sport or not, because there are no natural predators such as the wolf to keep their population in check).
You wouldn’t normally walk through someone’s garden - there I think it’s a matter of privacy. But if you want to cross someone’s field, if it’s pasture just walk straight across it. If growing a crop of course you make sure not to damage it so walk around the edges.
Also of course people here don’t have guns generally, and even in England if you stray from a footpath and walk across someone’s land, the most you are likely to get is a landowner saying “did you realize you aren’t on a footpath here, the footpath is over there…”. Because after all with so many footpaths it’s a natural enough mistake to make, to walk along a private road or private path thinking it is a footpath.
I think that’s only possible in the national parks in the US? And in England also - but in England you have all those footpaths going everywhere so though there is no right to roam generally, you nearly always have a footpath going where you want to go. In Scotland also, though you can walk anywhere, there is a network of footpaths too leading just about everywhere.
File:Public Footpath looking towards Derby Road, Duffield, Derbyshire (4538041050).jpg
Just to add, I do know that the US has large areas of national and city parks where you are free to roam just as you are in Scotland and the national parks of England. :). According to wikipedia, it’s 1,294,476 square km² Protected areas of the United States. Also has 762,169 km² of National Forests
File:USA National Forests Map.jpg
While the area of UK is 242,495 km² and of Scotland is 80,077 km²
So, in Scotland you can walk anywhere usually, and the only drawback is that there are many fences so you either climb over fences or have to look for gates. Sometimes electric fences, the type to keep in sheep and cows not humans, and maybe stiles to get over them. Where there are fences there are often stiles too:
There are so many footpaths and stiles, there's usually a footpath where you want to go.
In England sometimes landowners will have notices saying "private property keep out" around their land, everywhere except on the footpaths of course, but most don't bother.
And even if you walk through a "private, keep out" land, then you don't risk getting shot or anything. Most that might happen is an angry, but more likely polite landowner telling you to find the shortest path out of their property. They are not going to take you to the police just for walking on private property.
If it is like a big house with a huge garden that's so big it’s more like a field, they could have guard dogs there, probably with big signs saying “Beware of the Dog” in some form. And there is the possibility of cows and bulls in a field, which could be aggressive too. So if you stray from a footpath, that's a possible risk too.
Some parts of the countryside of course are impassable. You may find a river with no bridge across for miles in any direction (unless you swim). And in areas with forestry plantations, the trees are a crop and are grown so close together there may be no way through them at all at some stages of growth. Basically if you see something like this:
File:Timber harvesting in Kielder Forest.JPG
then unless you know the area very well, then keep to marked tracks or you risk ending up in a cul de sack and having to retrace your steps with no way to continue forward. You can still go anywhere, except when they are logging and you get warning signs “logging in progress” which it’s wise to pay attention to. You don’t want a log falling on you. But areas of the forest are sometimes literally impenetrable, you can’t even get through on hands and legs, and you can have impenetrable forest like that stretching over square kilometers.
Some of our paths are very ancient, for instance the ridgeway which was not far from where I lived, went right back to neolithic times
The Ridgeway west of Uffington Castle (C) Stefan Czapski
That goes close to the very ancient Uffington white horse, as well as going past ancient barrows like the Wayland Smithy
Others are old Roman roads, disused railways, and so on. Oh and in England there are many paths along rivers and canals. If there is a river or canal going where you want to go, in England, in flatter regions, you can pretty much guarantee, if it is of any size, that there is a footpath along it all the way - sometimes you might have to divert to the roads for a short way and then go back to the path. Usually there’s a path only on one side of the river - the paths started as “tow paths” for horses dragging barges along the rivers and have been kept as paths ever since.
File:StaffsWorcester105.jpg - Wikipedia - a roving bridge on the English Staffordshire and Worcestershire Canal. The horse does not have to be unhitched when the path goes from one side to the other of the waterway, because it goes under the bridge then over (or over then under). There are footpaths along the sides of most canals or rivers in England - usually only on one side so sometimes you have to cross bridges to keep going.
These are almost always public footpaths. So if there is a waterway headed where you are going you can usually count on an interesting footpath along the waterway to get there.
They can manifest in any of the realms. Indeed they aren’t really “deities” as such, more like the living quality of compassion, wisdom, etc. For instance Tibetans think of the Dalai Lama as being ...
(more)They can manifest in any of the realms. Indeed they aren’t really “deities” as such, more like the living quality of compassion, wisdom, etc. For instance Tibetans think of the Dalai Lama as being Chenrezig (Same as Avelokiteshvara). This doesn’t mean he is the “only Chenrezig”. It just means that they think he carries some kind of connection or blessing of compassion.
Anyone who shows compassion, in that moment is manifesting Chenrezig. But the boundless compassion, wisdom and openness of the Buddha is something that for us who think of ourselves as limited beings, we can’t identify with easily. So it has something sacred and divine about it, and so to us, it’s something we see as external to the limited way we see the world.
Pure land schools talk about “Avelokiteshvara pure land” as if it is some other realm you can go to. But even then - it’s not like a heavenly realm of carefree happiness with nothing to do and only pure joy. It’s a realm where everything carries the message of the path to enlightenment and there is no falling back and you open out more and more to the message of compassion. It’s very much to do with your own understanding and it’s possible to see this very world as a pure land. A pure land not in the sense that everything is wonderful with pink fluffy clouds and nothing to think about. But in the sense that whatever happens, that it’s got the message of the Buddha, that it’s opening you to compassion, wisdom, patience also. It’s not easy to practice that way but it is possible. For Buddhists following the path of Shakyamuni Buddha then you can think of it that by bringing his teachings into the world that he has brought a blessing that let’s us relate to it as a kind of a pure land if we can but relate to the dharma and see this.
So, when the Tibetans think of everyone as manifesting the compassion of Chenrezig in their actions - that’s to do with this idea that the pure land unlimited compassion of Avelokiteshvara is something that’s never far from us, in any moment indeed. The Zen Buddhists have similar ideas. And Therevadhans also have the idea that enlightenment is something you can realize in any moment. So there isn’t really this distinction as if Avelokiteshvara is in some other realm. This vast open compassion is here right here, right now.
To check to see if we have an extra sun or an extra easy to see bright object in our daytime sky next to the sun, as these enthusiasts for “Nibiru” claim to have videoed or photographed - try looki...
(more)To check to see if we have an extra sun or an extra easy to see bright object in our daytime sky next to the sun, as these enthusiasts for “Nibiru” claim to have videoed or photographed - try looking with naked eye. Don’t look at the sun, it’s right to warn not to do that as your eyes are easily damaged by UV light especially and your retina has no pain sensations and you won’t notice until maybe hours later if you stare at the sun for a long time and it does get damaged and you find a dark spot in your vision.
Instead, put your finger in front of the sun so that your eyes won't be damaged by the sunlight. Then look to left or right, above or below - do you see a second sun or anything else? If not, you have disproved all those videos that claim there is a bright object next to the sun in the sky. A star or planet can’t appear just to some people and not to others. It can be hidden by clouds yes, but if you have a clear blue sky, there is nowhere for it to hide at all, if there is a big bright object anywhere there, just block out the sun with your finger and you’ll see it.
It's bound to be something to do with the camera. They aren't designed for photographing the sun directly, and the bright light overwhelms the lenses and CCDs and you get lens flares and ghosting.
If you have a lens cover of some sort or photograph through glass, you are likely to get an offset lens reflection as well.
The only astronomical things we see with naked eye are the Moon of course, often in the sky at the same time with the Sun, daylight comets (but those are very rare and we don't have one at present), occasional fireballs - they are rare for individuals - you are very lucky to see one but worldwide they are quite common, but flash across the sky and are gone in a few seconds . Then if you know exactly where to look, you may see the planets Venus and Jupiter but those are not at all obvious - you need to know exactly where to look and sometimes on clear days when they are in the right position you see a white dot the same brightness of the sky, tiny white dot against the blueness of the sky. You can easily look straight at it and see nothing and it is very hard to photograph.
There are a few other possibilities which a few of the videos may show. Drones. Parachutists descending at night with lights. Rocket launches. A silvery child’s helium balloon catching the light of the sun. A weather balloon lit from behind by the sun. In the case of photographs from the ISS - dirt on the windows. The ISS windows get dirty and need to be cleaned from time to time, except they have to use spacesuits to clean the outside of the ISS windows.
A surprising number just show the sun lighting up clouds. Many people are so little aware of the sky that they may never have noticed this until someone tells them to look for “Nibiru”. I also often get pms from people who notice the Moon rises at a different time each day, sometimes in daytime, and get scared by this. The Moon has done this all their life, but they never noticed before.
If an amateur astronomer discovers even a new comet, then that is the astronomical highlight of their lifetime, and there are hundreds of thousands of amateurs, maybe millions.
A new planet inside our solar system, with an orbit that comes inside of Uranus, never mind Saturn and Jupiter, is impossible, because its orbit would be unstable. But were such a thing possible and someone spotted it, they would be instantly the most famous astronomer in planetary science, their career would be made, they might even get a Nobel prize. There is no way astronomers are keeping such a thing secret and do you think the astronomers don't have the ability to take photographs with consumer cameras?
But it’s not possible. Such an orbit is so unstable, passing by the “wrecking balls” of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune every orbit, that within a million years it would be gone, either hit one of them, or deflected into another orbit to hit the Sun or be ejected from the solar system. The gravitational influence of those planets extends quite a way beyond the physical planet. It is possible for a planet to stay in resonance with Neptune. Indeed Pluto does exactly that, it does two orbits of the sun for every three orbits of Neptune. But Uranus is not in any nice ratio of orbital periods with Neptune so it is impossible for a planet to stay in resonance with Uranus and Neptune simultaneously. So no planet can stay long in an orbit that crosses both Uranus and Neptune’s orbits. Add in Saturn and Jupiter as well, neither of them in resonance with any of the others either, and you end up with an orbit that is unstable within a million years.
This means that if a planet was in a “Nibiru” like orbit at the time of the formation of our Moon, then it was already gone 4.5 billion years ago.
So a planet in a “Nibiru” type orbit is impossible. Extra planets are possible. Neptune was discovered as an extra planet in the nineteenth century beyond Uranus. Pluto was discovered in the twentieth century beyond Neptune (but crossing to inside of Neptune occasionally). We could find new planets even further out beyond Pluto. But we can’t find new planets that come inside of Uranus’ orbit. We do find new dwarf planets that come inside of Neptune’s orbit, the “Trans Neptunian Objects”. But a large planet, just to be not discovered yet would have to be way way beyond Neptune.
“Planet X” is not a single object. “X” stands for unknown and any hypothesis for a new planet is called “Planet X” by astronomers. So they have been searching for “Planet X” since the start of the twentieth century. Pluto was the first “Planet X” and the only one to be confirmed. Since then, nearly all the other hypotheses for “Planet X” have been disproved. We do have a couple of possible hypotheses still. Nemesis and Tyche have been almost completely disproved by the WISE search. If they do exist then they orbit a long way away. Nemesis would be 1.5 light years away and yes, it could send more comets our way, but what the conspiracy theorists leave out or don’t dwell on is that that prediction was for 14 million years into our future, not next month or next year. But Nemesis probably doesn’t exist. If it does it is a very cold brown dwarf, unusually cold as WISE found normal brown dwarfs ten light years away. That’s possible but such an unlikely situation that I think most would say that Nemesis doesn’t exist. It’s the same for Tyche.
The main candidates at the moment are the so called “Planet 9” (awful name I think myself but we are stuck with it for now) and perhaps the ”Kuiper cliff” object is still possible. Mike Brown also has a probability argument that there probably are objects at least as large as Mars or Earth out there based on the number of dwarf planets we have so far smaller than that. See Planets beyond Neptune - Probability
These are different hypotheses. But both orbit way way beyond Neptune if they exist.
If you are still scared of “Nibiru”, see also this recent interview with the astrophysicist Brian Koberlein, professor at Rochester Institute of Technology, where he fields questions about “Nibiru”.
See also: Planets beyond Neptune - Wikipedia
No, interestingly, he wasn’t, but nor was anyone else in India at the time. They just didn’t have writing at the time of the Buddha. They did get writing a bit later on, they had it already by the ...
(more)No, interestingly, he wasn’t, but nor was anyone else in India at the time. They just didn’t have writing at the time of the Buddha. They did get writing a bit later on, they had it already by the time of King Ashoka. In India at the time of the Buddha, they had professional memorizers instead.
We are talking about 500 BC here, or thereabouts. So, there was writing in the world by then. The Sumerians had it far earlier than that, gradually evolving from proto writing over 3,000 BC see Cuneiform script. But not yet in northern India.
The Buddha was born thousands of years after the first writing systems were developed. However, writing developed in northern India at a far later date than elsewhere. That is - unless you count the Indus Valley script as a writing system. This is the last major undeciphered script in the world, and also one of the older scripts in the world. This is a typical script:
Indus Script - undeciphered so nobody knows what it says or what it was for - whatever it was - was only used for short inscriptions of a few symbols
Nobody knows if it was a writing system or not. It could be an early form of writing, like early heiroglyphs or early Sumerian. Or a form of Proto-writing. like Nsibidi with thousands of symbols that can be strung together to convey meaning, but not with the flexibility of a true writing system. See also Nsibiri: The Pre-colonial Writing Of The South Eastern People
Or alternatively, it could be a kind of signage a bit like a pub sign, or road crossing symbols or heraldic signs. All the inscriptions are short, just a few symbols each. Analysis suggests that it seems to have many of the characteristics of a writing system, see: A Rosetta Stone for a lost language (TED talk video). Also, How come we can't decipher the Indus script?
At any rate - whether the Indus Valley script is a writing system, or just a system of signs of some kind - all the texts are very short, and undeciphered. Whatever it was, it was ancient history by then, from 1400 years before the time of the Buddha.
The next evidence of writing in India is the Brahmi script. This was used for the Edicts of King Asoka, a great Buddhist King who ruled much of India a century or so after the Buddha:
So, it seems that the Buddha just missed the introduction of writing to India. If he had been born just a century later...
If there were, just a few pages, or fragments of pages from any of the sutras, reliably dated from the time of the Buddha, this could give us many clues about how the texts have changed between the Buddha's time and the present day, if they have.
If only! But they just didn’t have writing at the time. They did however have Brahmins with excellent memories. Because it was so important in their culture, they developed it to the nth degree. The ancient Indian Vedas which are sacred to modern Hindus were memorized word for word for thousands of years in this way.
So, Buddha’s followers would have included people who were trained and expert at memorization. The Guinness Book of Records of 1985 records the feat of a Buddhist monk who was first to memorize the entire Pali Canon in modern times:
The Buddhist Pali canon is vast, with thousands of pages, and millions of words. He was first in modern times to win the titles Tipitakadhara Dhammabhandagarika (Bearer of the Three Pitakas and Keeper of the Dhamma Treasure).
To do this he had to be able to recite any of the sutras, starting anywhere in the sutra - and to do it with understanding, not just reading by rote but reading the words with meaning. And indeed he not only did that but he could also give comparative readings from different texts of each sutra also. Word for word accurate all the way through. It's a stringent 33 day exam, with little margin allowed for errors.
So - it seems at least possible that some of the monks, disciples of the Buddha could have memorized all the teachings in the same way. In some ways this may have preserved the teachings actually more accurately than if they had been written down, copied, the originals lost, the copies copied again etc.
There’s a lot of evidence that suggests we actually have pretty good records of the actual words spoken at the time of the Buddha. Obviously re-arranged to be easier to memorize, probably not exactly as Buddha and his disciples spoke them.
But unusually - they actually started to memorize his teachings, while Buddha himself was alive, in the last few years of his life, at least that’s what the canon says. So they could also ask him questions and after he died they had a large gathering, the first great assembly, where they all checked their memories of the teachings and when they agreed on a version of each sutra, they recited it in unison word for word.
The internal evidence is pretty good, I think. I’m talking about he Pali Canon here, not the later Mahayana sutras that scholars agree were written and composed centuries after the time of the Buddha.
The sutras describe the political geography and technology of the time of the Buddha, in great detail. They don’t mention King Ashoka who is mentioned often in “backdated” sutras of the later Mahayana schools attributed to the Buddha. The experts who advocate this “view of authenticity” of the teachings say that there are a few sutras in the Pali Canon that are clearly later additions but most of them, internal evidence suggests, were written at the time of the Buddha.
This is a matter of much scholarly debate. They certainly could have memorized them by the analogy of the Vedas. But did they?
I think they did myself. Some expert scholars, mainly western academics for some reason, say that they were composed later. However, I find their arguments weak myself.
How do they explain the consistent internal geography, technology etc? That seems the most conclusive argument to me. Of course not actually a mathematical proof but hard to see how they could have got the internal consistency so right about such things and never slipped up and mentioned later technology - which was changing rapidly at the time - or politics from even the next century, or to mention a city or region in South India (their political awareness of distant parts also increased hugely shortly after Buddha died) etc.
It would be hard enough for an expert in Indian history to do it today, to compose a technologically and politically correct collection of texts as if they were all written in historical India at the time of the Buddha, and not even a century later - but back then, they didn’t even have the idea or motivation to do something like that or the understanding of history / archaeology that we have to attempt it, if anyone wanted to do it, and why would they? They didn’t try, not at all, with the Mahayana texts or the later additions to the Pali Canon.
I’ve written a blog post here about those arguments: Origins of the Buddhist Sutras - were they the Teachings of the Buddha?
So anyway - Buddha was indeed illiterate as was everyone else in the India of his day. But they would probably, many of them, especially the Brahmins, have had better memories than we do for words, able to memorize many millions of words, some of them, without errors.
According to the Pali canon he was born as a prince, and would surely have had the best education of his time. But in those days education didn’t include reading or writing, because they didn’t have it.
Note, later sutras mention writing. They were composed much later. The early sutras though, the earliest texts in the Pali canon, the ones that may have been memorized since the time of the Buddha, they don’t apparently.
Well I think this is to do with mixing the relative and absolute. If you hit your thumb with a hammer, it will hurt. And the insight that “cause and effect” are illusory isn’t going to help you the...
(more)Well I think this is to do with mixing the relative and absolute. If you hit your thumb with a hammer, it will hurt. And the insight that “cause and effect” are illusory isn’t going to help you there, your thumb will still hurt and the way to avoid getting a hurt thumb when hammering in nails is to make sure you hit the nail instead of your thumb.
Yet, all that is also based on a confused way of looking at the world and understanding yourself and everything else. But that confusion is something that you can’t do anything about by just intellectual understanding. There is something you have to see for yourself. Until you see through it then you have to think in terms of ordinary cause and effect. There are some things that we can see really easily, like the thumb hit by a hammer, and other things that are much harder to see.
For instance if you tell lots of lies, you gradually lose some of your connection with what is true, because when you tell a lie in a convincing way to others, then for a moment you have to believe that lie yourself, enough to say it convincingly. Do that enough and you may no longer be able to tell apart true from fake news, perhaps. Which might then have repercussions back on you, making you vulnerable to falling for delusional ideas that are out of touch with reality.
We can probably all think of a few examples of people who seem to have fallen for that sort of thing. It’s not much different from hitting your thumb with a hammer, but somewhat hidden and not so easy to see.
Well to really understand karma and connections is far more hidden than that.
So, it’s quite like cause and effect as scientists understand it, indeed science is part of it, as that also helps us to understand truth and relate to how thing work, and to align with the way things are rather than a kind of pervasive fake news. In a way the path of the Buddha is to realize that fake news is far more pervasive than we think. Indeed we tell ourselves fake news stories all the time without knowing it.
But dependent origination is like a different way into all that. Seeing how things depend on each other not just as cause and effect, but much more intimately than that. Cause and effect suggests things that are connected together, but separate, one thing causing another, but it’s like the one could exist by itself, it just happened to be caused by the other. E.g. I could have a sore thumb for many reasons. And once I have the sore thumb, then it’s just a “sore thumb” and the hammer no longer has anything to do with it.
Dependent origination is to do with seeing things as far more intimately connected than that. To such an extent that the very idea of cause and effect can eventually break down and be seen through as illusory too. But it doesn’t mean that karma ceases to operate. Indeed the way that Buddhas are able to teach us at all is because of the karmic connection we and they had with each other while they were ordinary beings like ourselves. There is something corresponding to Karma for enlightened beings too, it’s part of the activity of the Buddhas, how it is possible to ask them questions, and for them to give detailed specific teachings that answer to our situation, and so on. So seeing through the illusion of karma - that’s on the absolute level, but on the relative level, Shakyamuni Buddha was still able to continue to teach for many decades after he became enlightened, and we can make a direct connection to his teachings right now, and none of that would be possible without what we see as cause and effect in our way of understanding the world.
Hope that helps, a bit.
Nibiru is just an internet myth / hoax. There is no genuine astronomy behind it. They quote lots of astronomical news stories but they misunderstand them.
The idea of a planet in a 3600 year orbit o...
(more)Nibiru is just an internet myth / hoax. There is no genuine astronomy behind it. They quote lots of astronomical news stories but they misunderstand them.
The idea of a planet in a 3600 year orbit or a 360 year orbit that crosses the paths of all the gas giants is an astronomical nonsense, BS.
[NOTE TO DEBUNKERS - you are welcome to copy / paste as much of this text as you like to use for your debunking comments on videos on youtube etc]
Here are some of the absurdities
MORE ABOUT WHY NIBIRU’S ORBIT IS UNSTABLE
The Nibiru orbit is unstable and would not last as long as a million years in our solar system because it crosses the paths of four gas giants Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune all with different orbital periods. It's like rope skipping
Missing a planet on every orbit is like jumping a rope. You can do it if there is only one planet to miss each time. Pluto does that with Neptune, it goes inside Neptune's orbit every time it is closest to the sun, but that's no problem because it is in a resonance with Neptune and just like someone rope skipping - whenever they land on the ground the rope is not there so they don't get tangled up in it. Similarly every time Pluto gets closest to the sun, Neptune is not there and is elsewhere in its orbit so no problem.
But now imagine you have to skip four ropes simultaneously, you have to jump in a regular fashion (because orbits repeat exactly) and those four ropes are being turned at four different speeds with no resonances between them. That would be impossible. Similarly it is impossible for Nibiru to keep missing all four gas giants on every orbit for long. It can't keep that up for as long as a million years. Our solar system is over 4 billion years old. So such an orbit is impossible.
PLANETS BEYOND NEPTUNE
Astronomers do often hypothesize planets that orbit beyond Neptune. They call all these planets “planet X” where the X there doesn’t stand for 10, it stands for unknown, X as in unknown quantity. Pluto was called planet X before they discovered it,
So, if you see a story about “planet X” then it means they don’t know if it exists or not. It’s just a hypothesis.
The Nibiru people seem to think that all these hypothetical planets are real planets.
Then they also ignore all the parameters in the hypothesis. Scientists publish a paper saying there might be a brown dwarf that orbits 1.5 light years away from Earth. (That’s the idea of Nemesis, which is now pretty much disproved after the Wise infrared survey didn’t find it, and would have found a brown dwarf unless it was unusually cold).
The Nibiru people then skim read this paper and conclude that it proves that there is a planet called Nibiru in a 3600 year orbit that comes into the inner solar system and is already in the inner solar system and about to fly past Earth or hit it a few months into the future or a few weeks into the future.
They don’t seem to see the discrepancies between what the scientists say and what they are saying.
They behave like script writers for a movie.
If you make a movie, your ideas don’t have to make scientific sense, they just have to seem plausible enough for most of the audience to be able to suspend disbelief. Even scientists can enjoy movies like that, I like Star Trek and Doctor Who though much of what they say just makes no scientific sense at all.#
REAL LIFE IS NOT A MOVIE SCRIPT
But it doesn’t work in real life. In real life and astronomy the ideas have to make sense and the Nibiru ones don’t.
BIZARRE INCONSISTENT IDEAS
They say really bizarre things. They think that a planet in a 3600 year orbit can stay behind the sun all the way through its orbit. The sun goes through twelve constellations every year. Jupiter goes through one of the zodiacal constellations each year. A planet in a 3600 year orbit would go through them even more slowly. From that it’s easy to see that it’s impossible for a planet in a long period orbit to “hide behind the sun”. But they don’t seem to be able to understand this.
They believe, many of them, that the Earth’s poles have shifited. You just need to go out any starry night, locate the pole star, go out an hour or two later and check that it is the only star that hasn’t shifted and you debunk that idea with your own eyes. Due North still points towards the pole star. They can’t see this.
They also believe we have two suns and that this second sun appears in photographs take in a cell phone camera. It is so easy to debunk this. that just about anyone will just LOL if you say we have two suns, except the Nibiru people.
On any sunny day block out the sun with your finger. Do you see a second sun? (Don’t stare at the sun itself as your eyes can be damaged and you feel no pain as you have no pain receptors in your retina and effects can happen much later like hours later you start to lose your sight)
I find it incredible that anyone even gives this a moment of thought, whether or not we have one sun or two.
IT’S LIKE PROPOGANDA
But I’ve come to understand how it works I think. It’s like propoganda. If you watch lots of videos and read lots of stories then you come to believe it through repetition, if the videos and stories seem impressive to you. Much as people come to beleive in propoganda. Also a bit like the way advertising works.
For this to happen you have to have no understanding of physics or astronomy, but there are many people who flunked physics at school, and indeed why should everyone understand physics :). I’m not good at languages and have no idea about how baseball or american soccer works.
RESPONSIBILITY OF JOURNALISTS
So I think that youtube videos and newspaper reporters are part of what leads people to get so scared about things that if they could relate to their own common sense, they would see are nonsense.
I’ve done a couple of petitions on Change.org
Youtube: Petition to Youtube to Halt Ads on Doomsday Videos
Petition: Let's End Dramatized Reporting Of "Doomsday" Stories - The Vulnerable Get Suicidal
Do sign and share, it may help.
OBJECTS THAT CAN HIT EARTH
As for other objects that could hit Earth, well we have a survey of all the NEOs of 10 kilometers upwards and know their orbits well, and none of them can hit Earth before 2100. We could be hit by a comet but that’s now a 1 in 100 million probability, can be 99.999999% sure it won’t happen this century, and we’d be able to track it for at least a year and probably much longer on its way in if it was a large comet like that.
It is possible for a 1 kilometer object to hit Earth with only a few weeks of warning as though we know 90% of those, that leaves 10% of them still to find. We will have 99% by the late 2020s and are finding one of them every month at present.
An object that large is large enough to cause a tsunami, or to have serious effects on land, and put enough dust into the atmosphere to have some global effects. If we found such an object headed our way we’d need to evacuate the impact zone and couldn’t do much to deflect it at such late notice.
But this is very very unlikely. After all it has never happened in recorded human history and is no more likely to happen in this century than any other. Indeed is less likely because we have found 90% and they are not headed our way so the known probability of it happening is a tenth of what it was before we found those 90% of them. So we can be more confident that it won’t happen than anyone in any previous century already. By the 2020s we will be a hundred times more confident than we could be e.g. last century. Unless we find one headed our way of course, in which case it’s most likely to do several flybys first so we can deflect it, easy to do if it has a flyby of Earth.
Can’t say it is impossible but it’s very unlikely, and ordinary things like traffic accidents or health issues are far more significant. Even being killed by lightning or a tornado is more likely than being killed by an asteroid.
But we can do something about it. For half a billion dollars we can build a space telescope to do an infrared survey from inside of Earth’s orbit close to Venus to find most of the objects down to 20 meters within a decade.
Sentinel telescope developed by the B612 foundation. They have not yet managed to find enough funds to complete it although they did raise many millions of dollars. They were going to partner with NASA but they pulled out due to lack of funding. Any major technological country world-wide could fund this and hardly notice the effect on their defence budget.
It would sit inside of Earth close to Venus's orbit giving it a good field of view of NEOs close to the sun. It looks away from the sun to avoid being blinded by it - and it can then see faint NEOs that are in between the Earth and the Sun which is the hardest place to spot them from our current Earth based surveys. It would help fix that blind spot for asteroids that come from the direction of the sun. It looks in infra red because the asteroids are far more obvious in the infrared.
Eventually it would spot just about everything out there that's in the vicinity of the Earth orbit.
Idea is that it would find nearly all potential impactors down to 20 meters diameter.
If we find anything headed our way then with a decade or two of warning it would be easy to deflect.
It doesn’t make much sense to build an asteroid defense system based on expensive rockets that might not be needed for a hundred million years into the future (for the 10 km asteroids) or thousands of years inot the future for the smaller ones.
So unless we had huge amounts of funding ,the first priority is to do surveys and detect them. If we find something headed our way we can then build the defences against them, and if we do a complete survey we would expect decades of warning and can deflect them easily. So the priority right now is funding to detect them. We are doing quite well there. But for a tiny fraction, of say, the amount the UK government just voted to spend on renewing the Triden tnuclear weapons, an amount so small the defence budget of any major country would hardly notice it, we could find nearly all the asteroids down to 20 meters in diameter within a decade.
I think an ET would find it astonishing that we spend so much on defending ourselves against each other, yet none of the advanced countries in the entire world can find half a billion dollars for a space telescope to find the NEOs that threaten us from space.
For more on that, see Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
My Nibiru debunking articles are here
And you can tell from the hundreds of comments on those articles how many scared people there are, genuinely worried by Nibiru. It’s so sad, that they are so scared of such a daft idea, which I think most of them would admit is rather daft if they could just calm down enough to be able to connect to their basic common sense and good judgement. Especially young people and people who don’t have a strong background in science or astronomy.
See also my answer to Why do some people still believe in Nibiru?=
This is a copy of my answer to When will Nibiru hit Earth?
Also of my Debunked: Nibiru will hit Earth on [Insert Date here]
See also my Analogy of an African elephant with Planet X / Nibiru
and List of the articles in my Debunking Doomsday blog to date
This is my answer to Could colonizing Mars be a lucrative or potentially profitable venture? - not sure if this should be merged with that question. So, actually I’ve written a chapter in my Case f...
(more)This is my answer to Could colonizing Mars be a lucrative or potentially profitable venture? - not sure if this should be merged with that question. So, actually I’ve written a chapter in my Case for Moon First about just this. It’s not easy to find much detail for Mars. There’s just the eight page section “Interplanetary Commerce” in Robert Zubrin’s “The Case for Mars”, while books on Lunar settlement and colonization devote many chapters to the topic and there are many published papers also on the commercial value of the Moon.
According to Elon Musk, there is only one way to make a Mars colony profitable, and that’s through licensing of intellectual property - inventions and other intellectual creations. This idea originates with Robert Zubrin who also suggested that a Mars colony could make a profit by selling deuterium. Mars colonization enthusiasts have suggested various other ways a colony might be made profitable, in online forums.
I’ve said in other Quora answers that we should continue with planetary protection of Mars for a fair bit longer . We shouldn’t just drop it because we want to send humans there. After all, if there is native indigenous microbial life on the planet, that would be one of the biggest discoveries in biology ever, especially if based on a different biochemistry. It might also be vulnerable to Earth life. Some early form of life could be especially vulnerable, such as the RNA based cells of the RNA world hypothesis, potentially tiny because they don’t use either DNA or proteins. For more on this see my One example of what we might find on Mars…
We shouldn’t prioritize sending humans to Mars, it seems to me, if there is any chance that we can destroy the possibility of such a major discovery in biology by introducing Earth microbes. There are many other reasons as well to be cautious about introducing Earth life until we know what it will do to the planet. We need to know it is beneficial or harmful to whatever is there, and indeed to our future selves and descendants. The problem is that (unlike the Moon, say), it is a single interconnected system with the Martian dust storms able to spread microbial spores throughout the planet. We are nowhere near the level of understanding needed to make such a decision about an entire planet, at present, in my view.
But this is relevant whether or not we send humans to the Mars surface. If there is anything of great commercial value on Mars then either
Elon Musk has said clearly, several times that he doesn't think there will be anything material from Mars that would be worth transporting back to Earth.
"I don't think it's going to be economical to mine things on Mars and then transport them back to Earth because the transport costs would overwhelm the value of whatever you mined, but there will likely be a lot of mining on Mars that's useful for a Mars base, but it's unlikely to be transferred back to Earth. I think the economic exchange between a Mars base and Earth would be mostly in the form of intellectual property"
Elon Musk interview on the future of energy and transport - and more quotes like this from him.
Robert Zubrin covers this in more detail:
"Another alternative is that Mars could pay for itself by transporting back ideas. Just as the labor shortage prevalent in colonial and 19th century America drove the creation of Yankee Ingenuity's flood of inventions, so the conditions of extreme labor shortage combined with a technological culture and the unacceptability of impractical legislative constraints against innovation will tend to drive Martian ingenuity to produce wave after wave of invention in energy production, automation and robotics, biotechnology, and other areas. These inventions, licensed on Earth, could finance Mars even as they revolutionize and advance terrestrial living standards as forcefully as 19th Century American invention changed Europe and ultimately the rest of the world as well."
Elon Musk is skeptical about space mining generally thinking it probably won't be possible to export from the asteroids - "I'm not convinced there's a case for taking something, say, platinum, that is found in an asteroid and bringing it back to Earth." Of course many think that this will be possible. Myself I just don't know, I've heard the arguments on both sides and remain on the fence here.
Anyway Elon Musk doesn't go into any more detail about the case for or against material exports. Robert Zubrin however has discussed this in a paper "The Economic Viability of Mars Colonization " in the Journal of the British Interplanetary Society from 1995, and later on in the Interplanetary Commerce section of Case for Mars. He first outlines the need for exports to make a Mars colony viable:
"A frequent objection raised against scenarios for the human settlement and terraforming of Mars is that while such projects may be technologically feasible, there is no possible way that they can be paid for. On the surface, the arguments given supporting this position appear to many to be cogent, in that Mars is distant, difficult to access, possesses a hostile environment and has no apparent resources of economic value to export. These arguments appear to be ironclad, yet it must be pointed out that they were also presented in the past as convincing reasons for the utter impracticality of the European settlement of North America and Australia."
..."While the Exploration and Base building phases can and probably must be carried out on the basis of outright government funding, during the Settlement phase economics comes to the fore. That is, while a Mars base of even a few hundred people can potentially be supported out of pocket by governmental expenditures, a Martian society of hundreds of thousands clearly cannot be. To be viable, a real Martian civilization must be either completely autarchic (very unlikely until the far future) or be able to produce some kind of export that allows it to pay for the imports it requires."
..."Mars is the best target for colonization in the solar system because it has by far the greatest potential for self-sufficiency. Nevertheless, even with optimistic extrapolation of robotic manufacturing techniques, Mars will not have the division of labor required to make it fully self-sufficient until its population numbers in the millions. It will thus for a long time be necessary, and forever desirable, for Mars to be able to pay for import of specialized manufactured goods from Earth. These goods can be fairly limited in mass, as only small portions (by weight) of even very high-tech goods are actually complex. Nevertheless, these smaller sophisticated items will have to be paid for, and their cost will be greatly increased by the high costs of Earth-launch and interplanetary transport. What can Mars possibly export back to Earth in return?"
(emphasis mine)
So according to his ideas, the Mars colony is supported on the basis of outright government funding for the early stages of exploration and base building. He thinks that in these early stages you need something over and above ISRU (In Situ Resource Uitilization) for a commercial case unless the base is autarchic - a word which usually refers to individual liberty and governing oneself - but in this context I think he must mean, producing everything it needs, independent of Earth.
So it is rather similar to Elon Musk's idea except that in Elon Musk’s vision, the settlement is supported by private funding from Earth in the early stages rather than government funding.
Zubrin then discusses the possibility of ores on Mars, and we'll come back to this later in this section:
..."Mars may have concentrated mineral ores, with much greater concentrations of ores of precious metals readily available than is currently the case on Earth due to the fact that the terrestrial ores have been heavily scavenged by humans for the past 5000 years. It has been shown that if concentrated supplies of metals of equal or greater value than silver (i.e. silver, germanium, hafnium, lanthanum, cerium, rhenium, samarium, gallium, gadolinium, gold, palladium, iridium, rubidium, platinum, rhodium, europium, etc.) were available on Mars, they could potentially be transported back to Earth at high profit by using reusable Mars-surface based single stage to orbit vehicles to deliver the cargoes to Mars orbit, and then transporting them back to Earth using either cheap expendable chemical stages manufactured on Mars or reusable cycling solar sail powered interplanetary spacecraft. The existence of such Martian precious metal ores, however, is still hypothetical."
In his section on Interplanetary Commerce in “Case for Mars” page 239 and following he also suggests deuterium as an export. I'll look at that below, between the section on geological products and the section on fuel exports.
He then goes on to suggest that Mars may play a crucial role for supply of ores and other exports to the asteroid belt once we have humans living there. He suggests Phobos and Deimos may also be valuable as a staging post on the way to the asteroid belt. Which may be true, but that's a rather later stage. I'm interested here in the earlier stages before we have large numbers of humans in the asteroid belt.
Do correct me if anyone knows of any other papers with detailed discussions of possible exports from Mars. That's all I've been able to find so far.
However it is discussed a fair bit online in places like Reddit, and the various Mars forums and spaceflight forums, and enthusiasts have suggested many other ways that they think a Mars colony could become profitable. So what I present here is based on that, as well as some thoughts of my own.
So, let's look at this a bit more closely, is there anything physical that could be worth exporting, (apart from the science value of the search for life and the information returned). Also is there anything worth exporting at a reasonably early stage such as the first few decades of a human exploration of Mars either on the surface or telerobotically from orbit?
However, the price would go down quickly as we get more samples from Mars of the order of tons of material. You'd only return as much as was needed for the scientific research you need to do due to the high price of return of material from Mars.
Also, individuals might want to buy Mars rocks at high prices, but only for as long as they are rare. This would be like supporting a lunar mission by returning and selling Moon rocks. The first few rocks could be valuable to collectors, and if they were issued with a certificate of authenticity as the first rocks to be returned from Mars or the Moon maybe the first few rocks would retain their value. But longer term, how many people would want to buy into something of continually reducing value?
You'd think they must be rare or we would have spotted them on the surface. There's no sign at all of outcrops of oil shale. But on the other hand - cosmic radiation is very damaging. Would there be anything left of a surface oil shale deposit after billions of years?
It's an exponential process so you get very rapid reductions. Every 650 million years you get a 1000 fold reduction in the concentrations of small organic molecules such as amino acids on the surface because of cosmic radiation. So that's a million fold reduction every 1.3 billion years.
Cosmic radiation has little effect over time periods of years, decades, centuries or millennia. But over time periods of hundreds of millions of years the effects are huge. After 1.3 billion years, a thousand tons of amino acids gets reduced to a kilogram, with the rest converted mainly to gases like carbon dioxide, water vapour, methane and ammonia. After 2.6 billion years it's down to a microgram (millionth of a gram) and after 3.9 billion years you are down to less than a picogram (a millionth of a microgram) of your original thousand tons deposit.
So, I don't think absence of these deposits on the surface, at least ones easy to see from satellites, really shows that they don't exist below the surface. There could be millions of tons of organics from past life ten meters below the surface, and our rovers so far would probably not spot a thing. The organics of course also have to be there in the first place (surely likely to be patchy, in some places more than in others) and buried quickly - if it took several hundred million years to bury them, much of the organics would be gone also.
Oil itself is surely not worth the trouble of mining to return to Earth. But if there was some unique biological product on Mars that we don't have on Earth - which you could mine to find there, maybe that could be worth returning to Earth.
Mars could potentially be competitive with Earth for export of food for use on spacecraft and other space colonies due to the much lower launch cost, provided that the costs of growing the crops on Mars are also comparable to Earth's (quite a big if in the early stages).
But what about greenhouses in space? It would also have to compete with those. This would require it to be much easier to build a greenhouse on the surface than in space. Since it's a near vacuum and also has such huge diurnal swings in temperature, I'm not sure that it has much by way of advantages over, say, Phobos or Deimos, or indeed the Moon which has much less delta v than Mars. Even for export to Mars orbit, it could be as economical or more so to export from the Moon for foodstuffs that can keep for months long transport journeys. See section above: Greenhouse construction - comparison of the Moon and Mars
It could be more economical to export from Mars to Mars orbit rather than from the Moon perhaps for food that can spoil quickly, though this is not a net export from the Mars system. Another thought, if the natural Mars gravity was an advantage, and for some reason, easier to use than artificial gravity, perhaps it could be worthwhile.
It could also be worth doing if conditions on Mars let you produce unusual food or decorative plants more easily. As an example, it could be worth doing, if you can grow rare flowers on Mars that are very expensive to grow elsewhere, or similarly unusual and tasty rare new food stuffs that grow best on Mars for some reason, perhaps genetically designed for Mars conditions. This is related to the next topic:
Continuing to
Products you could export could include
For this to work there must be some reason they can't be grown on Earth
This case might also be another reason to be really careful not to contaminate Mars with Earth life, so that you can continue to grow the native Mars life there without interference from Earth life to make unique products that can only be produced easily from the native Mars life.
However, even if you can't grow the products safely on Earth, at some point you'd have the capability to grow them in Stanford Torus type habitats, biologically isolated from Earth and designed to mimic Mars conditions. Still, by the time that's feasible, export costs from Mars could go down at the same time that prices of such habitats go down, so keeping Mars competitive with them.
This does seem a potential early export that may continue to be commercially viable for quite some time, maybe even indefinitely. But it depends entirely on what we find as we search for life on Mars and also on how easy or safe it is to grow them on Earth, the Moon or elsewhere.
Raw opal found in Andamooka South Australia - photo credit CR Peters
Mars is different from asteroids or the Moon here, so it could have unique deposits. It's the only place we know of with deposits formed in ancient seas billions of years ago and its past and present climate is unique too. It might have unique minerals of decorative value.
What about:
Remember, that
So, in short, it has to be competitive with platinum, gold etc. mined elsewhere in the solar system, and you have to bear in mind that the prices you can get from Earth will surely go down, or else your exports are limited to keep the prices artificially high. On the other hand if the material you are mining is very valuable, and launch costs are low, perhaps the margin due to cost of export from Mars doesn't make such a big difference. E.g. suppose the launch costs a few hundred million dollars but you are returning tons of material, worth billions of dollars, perhaps it doesn't matter so much that a few percent of your product's price is due to transport. Maybe other elements of the price such as mining are somewhat less expensive than they are for asteroids?
However for this to work, there has to be a reason why other elements of the cost of mining are low. Asteroids and the Moon have the advantages of:
It seems unlikely that the thin Mars atmosphere would help much with mining operations. Would the Mars gravity help, or be a hindrance? And the large temperature swings from day to night, could they help in any way to make it easier to mine materials?
Just to make this clear, this is not Elon Musk's idea. As we saw, he thinks the colony would pay for itself in the early stages mainly through sale of intellectual property rights to the Earth. And Robert Zubrin, as we saw, thinks it will be paid for in early stages through government funding. But it's a topic that gets discussed in the online forums. So let's have a look at it.
If you get colonists who pay in advance for their flight out to Mars - and they use the Mars Colonial Transporter - a 100 people at a time, if SpaceX succeed in producing that spaceship - then the spacecraft has to come back to Earth after every run to transport colonists to Mars, and would be able to take exports with it, which is essentially free transport. So there would be a multiplier effect there of the original passage fee.
However unless the products are already worth returning for one of the other reasons, then at most they could get back their original passage fee by selling the material. Otherwise you'd have a case for sending empty colonial transporter ships to Mars just to return the products.
So, you'd get exports, yes, for as long as the colony continues to expand rapidly. However, that's not a business case in the long term, as it's not going to be sustainable, as a way of supporting a colony there. Even if they can get their money for the flight back from the goods returned from Mars, they then have to support themselves on Mars indefinitely, not just pay for the flight out. And with increasing numbers of colonists on Mars, you'd need exponentially increasing numbers of colonists going out there to support them with the passage fees. If you get increasing numbers of spaceships sent there to send them their supplies, again you need to pay for that somehow.
So, I don't think relying on the nearly empty transporter as it returns to Earth as a way to support the colony is likely to work long term. It works only as long as you have exponentially increasing numbers of colonists going to Mars and nobody coming back or few people coming back.
After the initial romance of being “the first settlers on Mars” is over, would there be such huge demand to retire to Mars with not so much by way of home comforts as Earth and far away from their friends, relatives and children?
It could work perhaps if many of them are near the end of their life, and don’t live long after they reach Mars (just a few years), but it assumes a large market for this. Also many sixty year olds would survive for a couple of decades or more, and some may survive up to 40 years to become centenarians, probably more so in the future, meaning that their initial investment in the project would have to support them possibly for decades just as for the younger folk.
Also, what about medical care and nursing for the higher prevalence of medical conditions in older people? What about care for the ones who develop Alzheimers on Mars? Also, older people, or retirees (in their eighties and nineties) and the ones with fewer years remaining in their lifespan due to health issues would be the ones on average less able to do the many tasks needed to keep the colony running than younger folk.
If it’s a normal mix of old people with young people migrating to Mars, I can’t see the retirees migrating from Earth paying for the requirements of all the younger people for the rest of their life. In that case it becomes again a case of exponentially increasing immigrants needed to pay for it and exponential growth can’t continue for long.
This is one of the main points in the International Commerce section in Case for Mars, and is also often mentioned in discussions, so I should go into it in some detail.
So first, let's look at the data on deuterium abundances in our solar system. Curiosity measured a deuterium to hydrogen ratio five times greater on Mars than in the Earth oceans, probably due to the loss of hydrogen from the upper atmosphere of Mars over billions of years. See Heavy hydrogen excess hints at Martian vapour loss. This is for near surface ice. The Mars meteorite studies also suggest another reservoir of water below the surface with a lower ratio of two to three times that for Earth’s oceans which probably comes from an earlier phase of Mars history. Meteoritic evidence for a previously unrecognized hydrogen reservoir on Mars.
Deuterium occurs naturally on Earth in water as 1 in 6,400 hydrogen atoms or 1 part in 3,200 by weight. On Mars it is one deuterium for every 1,284 hydrogens. Though Mars has a higher deuterium to hydrogen ratio than Earth, it’s not the most abundant source of it in the solar system. Rather, Earth’s abundance is if anything rather low, compared with many sources although high compared to the concentrations in the Sun and Jupiter and hydrogen from the solar wind. The solar wind hydrogen trapped in the lunar regolith also has a very low deuterium concentration.
Venus has the highest deuterium / hydrogen ratio recorded in our solar system of 120 times Earth’s and so 24 times that on Mars in its atmosphere. Implications of the high DH ratio for the sources of water in Venus' atmosphere.
Most meteorites that hit Earth have close to terrestrial abundances of deuterium but some have very high levels. This meteorite has 13 times the abundance of Earth’s oceans, so more than twice the abundance for Mars (many types of rock contain hydrogen and so you can measure their deuterium concentrations, this is a chondrite meteorite).
Antarctic Meteorite Lab Photo of Sample WSG 95300 - details about it here - the deuterium measurements for this meteorite are here: Deuterium enrichments in chondritic macromolecular material—Implications for the origin and evolution of organics, water and asteroids
(see table 2, the δD there is measured in parts per thousand relative to terrestrial abundances, so for instance δD +1000 for double terrestrial values)
Jupiter family comets have higher deuterium abundances than Eart,h perhaps around three times terrestrial abundances as for Comet 67p from the Rosetta mission, though there is some question here about whether comet outgassing may somehow concentrate the deuterium and lead to over estimates of the abundances.
So is Mars the best extraterrestrial source for deuterium? And is it worth importing from space at all?
Currently the main use of deuterium is as a moderator in a nuclear reactor. You have the choice of enriching the uranium, and using ordinary water, which is the method used currently in many reactors, or of using ordinary unenriched uranium and heavy water, as is used in heavy water reactors such as the ones developed by India. That works because heavy water slows down neutrons without capturing them so permitting a chain reaction with a lower concentration of radioactive Uranium than light water which captures many of the neutrons.
However his quoted price of $10,000 per kilogram for deuterium seems a bit high. You can get 99.96% pure deuterium oxide for $1,000 per kg from Cambridge Isotopes. (Deuterium Oxide 100%) You can get 99% pure deuterium oxide for $721 per kg (Deuterium oxide 99%) Unless he’s referring to the price for pure deuterium separated from the oxygen?
99% pure deuterium oxide is sufficiently pure for the production of plutonium from uranium. Because of this application, the technology to produce heavy water is tightly regulated and the deuterium produced in a plant is tracked carefully.. (For an example of how this is done, see "Selection of a safeguards approach for the Arroyito heavy water production plant" )
He says that the price of deuterium would go up if we develop deuterium / tritium fusion. I don’t really see that, since the main cost comes from extraction and there is no shortage of water to extract it from. Would a higher demand not just lead to us building more deuterium extraction plants, and a search for methods to reduce the costs using larger scale production facilities, for economies of scale, and other methods of generating it, which would reduce the price rather than increase it?
And what if some other form of fusion power turns out to be more efficient or have advantages over deuterium / tritium fusion? It’s a bit tricky arguing based on a technology we don’t have yet, and there are many possible ways of generating fusion power being explored at present.
He says deuterium would be a natural byproduct of electrolysis of water sourced on Mars, which would produce around one kilogram of deuterium for every six tonnes of water electrolysed on Mars. However to do this then you have to add a deuterium / hydrogen separation stage to the hydrogen production plant. How easy is that? He doesn’t go into details of how it would work.
That 5 times enhancement over the deuterium in Earth’s oceans is still a long way from 100% concentration. It’s normally extracted by using many stages, and each time the amount of deuterium is increased. With only one atom in 1,284 consisting of deuterium you would still need to concentrate it many times over to reach 99% concentrations. For instance water electrolysis, one of the most effective methods of concentrating it, would increase the deuterium concentration 5 to 10 times each time it is used. The 5 times higher concentration on Mars would just save one stage of water electrolysis of many that would be needed. Though in practice electrolysis has such high energy costs it is best used only once for a final stage, for water that is already 50% D2O. The Argentinian plant uses methane as a feedstock because the hydrogen can be dissociated thermally from methane, much more easily than from water. Similarly for other techniques. There are many methods used to extract deuterium. Each of them requires many stages of concentration and I don’t see how an enhancement of 5 times in the feedstock would make a significant difference here.
So that then leads to the practicality of building and operating an extraction plant on Mars and providing the high power levels needed to extract the deuterium (the main reason for its high cost). If it needs vast amounts of electricity to do the separation, it’s not going to be worth doing I think. Also heavy water plants on Earth are large scale and massive structures. This is the heavy water plant in Argentina:
Heavy water plant near Arroyito, photograph by Frandres This plant produces most of the world’s deuterium, at a rate of 200 tons per year, and is powered by a nearby hydroelectric power station at Arroyito dam with a power output of 128 MW. (I'm not sure how much of that power output is used for the plant, do say if any of you know).
The equipment for extracting deuterium weighs 27,000 tons including the support structures and includes 250 heat exchangers, 240 pressure vessels, 90 gas compressors 13 reactors and 30 distillation columns. (Statistics from Arroyito Heavy Water Production Plant, Argentina)
Would the five times higher concentration of deuterium lead to more than a minor saving in the costs of the plant? And how would that offset all the difficulties of setting up and operating the plant with near vacuum conditions outside it, as well as transport costs for equipment that can’t be built on Mars?
Of course Mars is different in many ways and though most of them seem to be disadvantages for operating such a planet, could any of them be advantages, such major advantages that it makes it worthwhile to build and operate it on Mars? For instance, could the near vacuum of its atmosphere be made an advantage somehow? (E.g. for distillation).
On the face of it, there doesn’t seem to be a compelling commercial case for this. If there is, it needs to be spelt out in more detail.
Most of the details here come from Heavy Water: A Manufacturers’ Guide for the Hydrogen Century. Future Trends in Heavy Water Production (1983) - has details of the Argentina plant, and Heavy Water Production.
Some of the internet discussions talk about this as a business case. The main issue I see with supplying fuel from the Mars surface is, would it compete with fuel generated on Deimos or indeed on the Moon for astronauts in orbit around Mars. Also, is methane valuable enough as a fuel in space, to make it worthwhile to export hydrogen to the Mars surface to convert into methane and return to orbit, or to split the hydrogen from water on Mars and use it to make methane?
That leads to the next idea:
This is the premise of the Deimos Water Company outlined by David Kuck. The delta v back to Earth is much less than from the Mars surface, and you can produce your own fuel for the journey. It would have to compete with volatiles on the Moon if those exist and are easy to mine. I think it's hard to judge this at present as we don't know what the volatiles are like on the Moon. We know they exist but don't know how abundant they are locally, or how easy or hard they are to extract. And so far we don't yet know for sure if there are any volatiles on Deimos, although spectroscopically it resembles a type of asteroid that often has them.
Supposing Deimos and the Moon have volatiles equally easy to extract, then the Deimos volatiles would still be favourable for use on Deimos and Phobos and for export to the Mars surface. They would also be favourable for delivery to Mars orbits such as Mars capture orbit at a delta v of 0.57 km / sec from Deimos. So, it would make a lot of sense for a base on Deimos to supply fuel to the Mars system. But that's not a commercial case for colonization. As Zubrin says - you need something over and above ISRU for a commercial case for exports you sell to pay for the things you can't produce there.
So we need to look into whether this can be competitive with the Moon for supply to the Earth Moon system. For the Moon to LEO the delta v is 5.7 km / second, and a bit more if supplied from polar regions - while it's 4.87 km / sec for Deimos to LEO which would seem to favour Deimos. However that does not take account of Hoyt's cislunar tether transport which could make the delta v for supply from the Moon to LEO almost zero.
So, in summary, there do seem to be a number of potential exports from Mars even at quite an early stage, although this is mainly based on internet discussions with not much actually published on the topic in peer reviewed journals. But they all depend on future discoveries so we won't know if this is possible until we know more about Mars. A few of the potential exports, involving exobiology, might require us to keep Earth microbes out of Mars.
There may also be exports from Deimos, but that depends on how easy it is to extract the volatiles, and if the lunar volatiles are as easy to extract as the ones from Deimos, then it might be hard to put a business case for export from Deimos to the Earth / Moon system, though it may be very useful for volatiles for spacecraft in orbit around Mars, on its moons or on its surface. As for exports to the asteroid belt, the chances are that they will find a way to mine their own volatiles out there, so it seems an unlikely case to me for the special case of volatiles.
Here I'm using the delta v figures from Hop David's cartoon delta v map.
Here are some of the online discussions I looked at. Of course they are not always 100% accurate. This is just enthusiasts discussing the topic, some more knowledgeable than others, and it may also contain a fair bit of nonsense in some of the discussions, so you have to filter and look up details to see if what they say is correct. Anyway if you are interested in doing that, see for instance:
Wikipedia also has a page on Space Trade, though there isn't much in it yet. Then there's Robert Zubrin's paper, already mentioned, and the Interplanetary Commerce section of Case for Mars.
That's about it, do let me know if you have more sources!
WOULD A SPACE COLONY SURVIVE WITH ONLY EXPORTS OF INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY TO PAY FOR IMPORTS?
As we saw, Elon Musk and Robert Zubrin both are skeptical about any possibility of material exports from Mars, at least in the early stages (though Zubrin thinks there might be a case for deuterium exports), and both think that a space colony could pay for imports solely through licensing of intellectual property to Earth. Robert Zubrin draws the analogy with the "Yankee Ingenuity's flood of inventions" which he says was due to a situation of acute labour shortage in the US in a technological culture, which would be paralleled on Mars. But how would that work in practice?
First, for US readers, I'd like to point out that this whole idea is based on a US perspective on inventions. I'm from the UK and we also talk about our country as the source of a flood of inventions, frequently. Here is an example.
"We're a nation of inventors, from the worldwide web to the electric vacuum cleaner - here's a rundown of our most influential innovations", intro to a list of the 50 greatest British Inventions from the UK in the Radio Times.
And putting aside national pride, which all countries have, surely for such a small country, we have indeed made many inventions here. We don't have the same narrative that it was due to a labour shortage, nor do we think of the US that way either. I'm not talking about historians here, but ordinary folk. Robert Zubrin's quote was the first I heard of this idea, which I assume from the way he put it, must be quite commonly accepted in the US. We just think that we are a nation of inventors, and leave it at that. We don't try to explain why.
At any rate if it's true of the US, surely it can't explain why we have so many inventions from the UK as we've never had a significant labour shortage. Indeed the opposite, here technology put many skilled people out of work leading to uprisings by working people during the industrial revolution followed by military repression
The leader of the Luddites - self employed weavers who feared getting put out of work by the newly introduced weaving technology of the late eighteenth and early nineteenth century, and replaced by less skilled workers. They destroyed industrial equipment in protest. Later on agricultural workers joined in, destroying threshing machines. The UK government responded by military action against them, executions, deportation, and they made destroying industrial machinery a capital offence. The US narrative that invention was the result of a labour shortage just doesn’t work when applied to UK inventions. It was almost the opposite, inventions caused a labour shortage here, at least of skilled workers
Let’s look at some of the metrics that measure the talent and creativity of a country. The rankings vary from year to year, but in 2015,
When you combine all these measures, the US comes second with only Australia ranked higher. So it doesn’t seem that being inventive is the most important attribute when it comes to becoming a leading technological nation. It is one of several factors. Availability of education, tolerance and openness to ideas also has a lot to do with it as well as the numbers of people in the creative classes in society. See list of the most creative countries and then for the detailed stats, Global Creativity Index.
Perhaps there is some correlation with labour shortage, for instance, Japan, second in the list of inventiveness by patent applications, is top in the list of countries facing acute skill shortages - but which way does it go? Does innovation lead to skills shortages or vice versa? The whole question is a complex one. Here is a survey of the literature from 2005 from the Department of Trade and Industry in the UK which looks at some of the drivers of innovation. The focus is more on trying to find ways to fill the gaps in skill shortages, and ways to encourage workers to get involved in innovation since innovation often comes from the less skilled workers - it also looks at different styles of innovation - the radical creativity that we may be most familiar with and incremental accumulation with a slow and steady pace of innovation.
I think it is hard to say for sure whether space colonies would be more innovative than countries on Earth on the basis of this information.
Also, the space colonists would be using many inventions from Earth, so surely they would have to pay many royalties in the other direction back to Earth? How could it be possible to set up a system where the Earth has to pay royalties to Mars and not vice versa?
And then - how also could it work, even if a space colonists did turn out to be much more inventive than Earth? The only people who would be able to earn foreign currency for imports to Mars would be the ones who make these inventions. But it's not enough to be inventors. They have to make their inventions into paying inventions also. And highly profitable inventions too, to pay for such items as spacesuits.
It’s best to think of spacesuits as more like mini spaceships than the suits of science fiction stories and movies, which are depicted as not much more complicated than wetsuits with aqualungs. They have to be pressurized to hold in atmosphere at a pressure of tons per square meter when surrounded by a vacuum, yet also flexible too with many joints, also able to withstand minute micrometeorites hitting at kilometers per second, and to keep the astronaut cool because the vacuum of space is a good insulator, like a vacuum flask. This makes them far more complex than any diving equipment.
A typical NASA spacesuit would probably cost about $2 million dollars to build from scratch - that’s as a recurring item, not including the initial design costs. It requires about 5,000 hours of work and would take someone who had all the necessary skills about two and a half years to build, given supply of all the parts and materials needed. I get those details from Space suit evolution (NASA). It’s possible that this could change with future designs. But that’s the current situation, and for the foreseeable near future.
I'm an inventor, and I have invented dozens of things (mainly games and software ideas) but I only earn dollars per day from them, and many have never been published in any form (attempted to publish some of them with no success).
Similarly I've written many original articles, but again, though I earn a bit from the kindle booklets, it's only a dollar or two a day, at present anyway. And that's not at all unusual. For instance I have many composer friends, but it is rare for them to earn a living entirely from composing.
As for composers, artists, writers, or other creative people, earning amounts that would let them buy multimillion dollar spacesuits for all their friends, and ship them to a space colony - well forget about it, unless the next Harry Potter is written on Mars. Even then, J. K. Rowling’s estimated wealth is 1 billion - enough to buy spacesuits for 500 people. She earns 23 million a year, enough to pay for 11.5 spacesuits a year. You’d need a lot of J. K. Rowling’s to support a large Mars colony.
Amongst all my friends and relatives here in UK, another country with a high proportion of inventors, then yes many of them are indeed innovative and creative and inventors in spirit. But I can't think of many that make a living from their inventions, especially just as intellectual property rights. It's the same also for software programmers - most independent shareware developers that I know, often authors of very inventive software, do it part time, and couldn't earn enough from it to support themselves or their families.
Only a few of all the people who invent things go on to make millions of dollars from their inventions, enough to pay for spacesuits and the like for all their friends and colleagues if they so wished. Even Elon Musk came close to bankruptcy once, in his worst year.
"We were running on fumes at that point," Musk says. "We had virtually no money... a fourth failure would have been absolutely game over. Done." Elon Musk in an interview with Scott Pelley, March 30 2014.
So there is a measure of luck there as well. SpaceX would not be here today if his fourth test flight had gone wrong.
So, if you had a million colonists, I don't think we can expect to have a million Elon Musk's. You might be lucky to have one. I think it is fair to say he is at least a one in a million success story. And however brilliant he is, would he earn enough just through intellectual property rights on Earth, managed remotely from, say, Mars, to pay for all the imports needed for a colony of a million people? Even a billion dollars a year of earnings is only $1000 per person which wouldn't get you far importing expensive components from Earth to Mars.
There's also the question of how that would work in practice. Is it going to be a communal system or even communist (in the good sense) where the inventor's earnings are used equally to support everyone? If so, where is the incentive for the inventor to not just invent, but to go to all the work to get their invention into production, or for entrepreneurs to join in with them? Or is it the case that the inventors who are successful are the only ones who earn anything in Earth currencies, and so are the only ones who can afford to import goods, and they then sell them on to the other colonists at any price they care to set in the local Mars currency? And what’s to stop them from emigrating to Earth once they become financially successful, especially since most of their earnings would accrue on Earth and the on the spot business decisions would be made on Earth, and the meetings with investors and manufacturers etc. would also be done there?
I'm not expert in politics or economics. I may well be missing something here. But it seems on the face of it to be quite a problematical way to support a colony. I'm interested in any thoughts on this - do say in comments on the Science20 articles or the kindle booklets pages or here.
On the face of it, at least, this seems a major advantage of the Moon, that you'd have many different revenue streams to pay for imports, at least potentially.
I haven't listed exports of Helium 3 for fusion here. Although it gets a lot of publicity, it's based on technology we don't have, and some experts think we will never have it, and requires mining large areas of the lunar surface. Also, the helium 3 you would get from mining all the regolith to a depth of 3 meters would produce as much power as you'd get from solar cells you could make on the surface for much less effort using lunar silicon melted in situ, in seven years. So would it not make more sense just to build solar cell power plants on the Moon and beam the power back to Earth? It may however be a useful byproduct of other mining operations on the Moon. For details, see Case for Moon First - Helium 3 .
Of those, only the first, intellectual property, applies to Mars, at least in the early stages.
That is of course, apart from the ideas mentioned in the previous section, but they are none of them things we can count on right away, and some may depend on keeping Earth microbes out of Mars.
Also, if Mars geology could lead to unique gems such as the possible Mars opals of the previous section, then what about the Moon? Might it also have unique exports that can only form in the lunar conditions? For instance, could there be lunar gems?
Surprising discovery in 2008 - the near side of the Moon has large deposits of relatively pure chromite spinel, which is a gemstone on Earth. This was discovered from orbit. The moon rocks have small amounts of spinel mixed up in them, but this was a much stronger signal. Could the Moon have spinel gemstones? As with the Mars gems, if they exist, they probably wouldn't be worth the cost of returning to Earth unless they have something distinctive about them due to formation in lunar conditions.
Or might there be anything else unique to lunar geology that we might prize back on Earth?
MAINTENANCE COSTS
For a profitable colony, I think the main thing in the very long term is how easy it is to maintain habitats and equipment in the years and decades into the future. If habitats have to be replaced every few decades (as for the ISS), and spacesuits similarly, the long term costs are going to be very high even if the startup costs are reduced.
As an example, the ISS cost €100 billion so over $110 billion, see How much does it cost? with a design life of about three decades (though it may be extended), and normal maximum number of inhabitants six. That makes the cost about 600 million a year or so per inhabitant with most of that due to the limited design life of the ISS.
The projected cost for the Stanford Torus was over $200 billion in 1975 US dollars for ten thousand inhabitants. That’s around a trillion dollars in 2016 dollars (Inflation Calculator), or a hundred million dollars per inhabitant.
If we can find a way to pay for a habitat as a one off cost, for instance through government funding, private funding, or it pays for itself commercially (the Stanford Torus was going to be paid for by exports of solar power from space to Earth), then the main issue after that is how to maintain it.
If the habitats costs a few hundred thousand dollars a year per inhabitant, then still, only the very rich could live there even after the build costs are paid off, and no matter how much the initial build costs are reduced, unless its exports are very valuable.
Then, if you can build the same habitats on Earth, for instance in a desert or floating on the sea, with no cost for its breathable atmosphere or cosmic radiation, solar flare and micrometeorite shielding, the exports from space have to be very valuable to make the space colonies competitive.
If you can reduce the maintenance cost to say hundreds of dollars per year per person then space does have some advantages over Earth, with no storms or earthquakes (depending where you build), no weathering from rain, wind, etc. Then a “home in space” might become a viable long term prospect.
On the downside you have micrometeorites, cosmic radiation, need for spacesuits etc. Can the cost of those really be reduced so much, or the exports from space be so valuable, that they compete with costs of maintenance due to weathering of buildings on Earth?
In this way, an easy to maintain colony will need exports mainly to pay for luxuries, while a hard to maintain colony will need many high value exports just to survive.
REDUCING MAINTENANCE COSTS FOR SPACE HABITATS
The three things here of most importance I think are:
1. An envelope that is low maintenance to preserve the habitat - to keep in air, and protect against any external hazards such as cosmic radiation, solar flares and micrometeorites.
2. A closed system biosphere inside - we need this for any long term space habitat as the logistic requirements and expenses are just too high otherwise. The variation in maintenance costs here would be mainly due to variations in how you supply light and heat to the habitat, and whether you get leaks of gases, water, and other materials that need to be replenished from time to time.
3. Maintenance and resupply of equipment for essential needs, for instance space suits, environment control, solar cells
For 2, I know a lot is made of the CO2 atmosphere for Mars but you don’t actually need much by way of in situ resource utilization. For instance if it is a reasonably closed system, you don’t need constant supply of water, CO2, or nitrogen. You just need to be able to top up any losses that there may be in the system. Plants don’t need a constant supply of CO2 to grow, they get the CO2 from the exhaled air of the astronauts. The astronauts in turn get their food and oxygen from the plants. In a biologically closed system those numbers all add up. If you produce enough food from plants, you automatically produce enough oxygen too and the astronauts eating that food produces enough CO2 for the plants to use in their next growth cycle, as the Russians proved in practice with their BIOS-3 experiments.
For 1, the costs can be reduced if you have a single envelope enclosing a large area, for instance a domed city or a cave or a Stanford Torus or O’Neil Colony style spinning space habitat using materials from the asteroid belt. That’s because the area of the envelope goes up as the square of the radius and the volume enclosed as the cube. So the cost per inhabitant of maintenance for the envelope will be much lower for a larger colony.
There the Moon scores over just about anywhere else for the early stages, because of the lunar caves - at least, if they are as large as the Grail data suggests. See Lunar caves. They may be up to kilometers in diameter and over 100 km long. That’s as much internal area as an O’Neil colony, and if it is easy to convert that into a low maintenance envelope for the habitat, turning interior walls to glass perhaps, the maintenance costs might go right down. They would protect from cosmic radiation, solar flares, micrometeorites and hold in the atmosphere against the vacuum of space.
You might wonder about power requirements to produce food on the Moon with the 14 day lunar night. Robert Zubrin uses figures of 4 MW per acre for artificial sunlight in his Case for Mars (page 237) or about a kilowatt per square meter.
However the power requirements per habitant are far less than you might think as with efficient hydroponics, you only need 30 square meters per person, to provide 95% of their food and oxygen, from the BIOS-3 experiments. Also those figures for the power requirements to illuminate the crops must be for the older halogen lights. Modern LEDs are far more efficient and can be optimized to emit only the frequencies of light that are most useful for plant growth. The result is that you only need 100 watts per square meter or about a tenth of the figures in Case for Mars.
When you combine those lower power requirements per square meter with the small growing area needed per inhabitant from the BIOS-3 experiments, that makes it only 3 kilowatts per inhabitant, which you’d need for 12 hours a day and on the Moon you’d only need it during the lunar night as well. That’s a power level that could be supplied using solar cells and power storage such as fuel cells or batteries for the 14 day lunar night. Alternatively you can lower the temperatures of the crops during the lunar night from 24 °C to 2.5-3 °C (which helps maintain plant vitality during darkness) and leave them in darkness, which results in edible crop yields reduced by 30 - 50%. So that would require up to double the growing area, or around 60 square meters per astronaut, and no need to supply extra illumination during the lunar night.
For more on this see:
I haven’t ‘covered gravity in this section, but go into it in detail in the Case for Moon First
VENUS CLOUD COLONIES - A SURPRISING LOW MAINTENANCE SOLUTION
However if you want to reduce maintenance to an absolute minimum in space habitats, well there is one other place that has far lower maintenance costs even than a lunar cave. It also has greatly reduced initial costs for the habitats as they are very low mass. It’s a surprising one to most of you perhaps. That’s Venus cloud colonies. So I’ll briefly mention those too.
Venus, just above the cloud top level, is in some ways the most habitable region in our solar system outside of Earth. The temperature and pressure there is the same as for Earth. There’s abundant sunlight, and clear skies. The atmosphere above you provides the mass equivalent of ten meters of water, shielding you from cosmic radiation and solar flares, also from micrometeorites - they are not an issue at all. Solar flares will cause large scale magnetic effects because Venus has no magnetic field to shield from them - but this is only an issue if you have kilometers long conductive cables - which are not likely to be needed.
Earth’s atmosphere is a lifting gas in the dense CO2 of Venus’ atmosphere. And just as with a weather balloon or airship - the pressure is the same inside and outside the envelope. So an airship could be filled with Earth pressure atmosphere with just a thin envelope to hold it in. Even if it is damaged, the air would leak out only slowly and the Venus acid filled atmosphere would also percolate in slowly too. Unlike any other space habitat, it would not be an emergency that you have to respond to in seconds, but something you could repair over a timescale of minutes or hours or even longer.
Russian idea for a cloud colony in the upper atmosphere of Venus, proposed in 1970s. This illustration is from Aerostatical Manned Platforms in the Venus atmosphere - Technica Molodezhi TM - 9 1971
This makes the Venus atmosphere the place offworld with the lowest maintenance costs of anywhere, I think. Also its atmosphere has all the main chemicals for life. It has carbon, oxygen, hydrogen, nitrogen and sulfur in abundance. The concentrated sulfuric acid is a source of water (it dissociates naturally into water and SO2 in the Venus sulfuric acid cycle). You can make plastics, and you can grow trees and other plants. You could even build new habitats using mainly wood and plastics and some thin layer to protect against sulfuric acid and UV light. To protect suits, airships, cloud colonies etc. from the acid involves covering them with an acid resistant coating, such as teflon (suggested here on the basis of tests simulating Venus atmosphere conditions).
Instead of $2 million spacesuits, you have acid resistant suits, which eventually you’d make locally, and aqualung style air breathers. This is a major saving since spacesuits are so complicated, and components for them when they fail would be a large budget item in any space colony I think.
Venus also has gravity levels identical to Earth, so if full Earth gravity turns out to be best for human health, this is easily achieved in the Venus cloud colonies.
Its long day may seem a disadvantage, as its solar day is a very long 116.75 Earth days. However the upper atmosphere super rotates once every four Earth days in a steady jet-stream like flow which gives the cloud colonies a two Earth day “night” and a two day “day” which is much more acceptable.
The cloud colonies also score at an early stage because you can launch a much larger habitat to the cloud colonies for far less mass per inhabitant. Or much more living space for the same mass sent to Venus. This would be an inflatable habitat like the Bigelow Aerospace idea - but one that is as lightweight as an airship.
Much of this will seem unfamiliar and unlikely to many of my readers. The thing is that ideas for Mars have been worked out in considerable detail, by the Mars colonization enthusiasts and the Mars Society etc. We don’t have any similar advocacy group for Venus or even the Moon. So there’s a tendency to look at everything with “Mars spectacles” and see how the Mars solutions would work on Venus or the Moon. And not surprisingly you find out that the solutions devised for Mars work better on Mars than anywhere else. But once you start looking at these other places in their own right, then a different picture may emerge.
If you are interested in this idea and want to follow it up further, see my Will We Build Colonies That Float Over Venus Like Buckminster Fuller's "Cloud Nine"?
So I think at least potentially Venus cloud colonies have the lowest maintenance requirements of all and might well hit that $100s per colonist per year figure at an early stage.
Still you need to pay back the initial build costs. The Stanford Torus was projected to take 22 years to build for 10,000 colonists at a cost of around a trillion in 2016 US dollars (see Building the Colony and Making It Prosper). A Venus colony wouldn't need anything like as much mass, for instance no regolith shielding is needed, you only need thin envelopes and there is no need to contain the pressure of an Earth atmosphere against a vacuum. The engineering is simpler as well. You could probably launch it all from Earth for a similar number of colonists over a similar timescale at a much lower cost than the Stanford Torus
But you still need some motivation for doing it. Even if it costs much less, and is easier to maintain once built, how can you do it if there are no profitable exports and they can't pay back the build costs? So let’s just look briefly at its commercial value for exports.
ORBITAL AIRSHIPS FOR VENUS AND MARS
This depends a lot on how easy it is to export from Venus. That’s why I don’t see this happening in the very near future, for as long as you need massive rockets to launch from the colonies to orbit similarly to the ones needed for Earth. However JP Aerospace are working slowly and steadily on their idea for orbital airships. Even in the near vacuum of the Earth’s upper atmosphere, hydrogen and helium float in the near vacuum of oxygen and nitrogen. And that’s even more so with the denser Venus CO2 atmosphere. They accelerate using ion thrusters, slowly over several days, and meanwhile also rise higher and higher in the atmosphere. Eventually they break the speed of sound barrier - but by then they are so high it is an almost vacuum and it is not a problem.
Artist’s impression of orbital airship from JP Aerospace’s Airship to Orbit handout - this would be a very lightweight 6,000 foot airship which slowly accelerates to orbit from the upper atmospheric station using hybrid chemical and electrical propulsion over a period of several days.
You need a staging post at a high level in the atmosphere for Venus or Earth where passengers and goods are transferred to a high altitude orbital airship which is much larger and lighter, designed for upper atmosphere operations. See my Projects To Get To Space As Easily As We Cross Oceans for an overview, also see their book: The Airship to Orbit Program
Note that this also applies to Mars too. Their orbital airships would be able to accelerate to orbit from the Mars surface with no need for an upper atmosphere staging post. If this is possible, then you could have both Venus and Mars as “garden planets” and Venus would score over Mars in that respect because the greenhouses would be far less substantial for a larger living area and much lower maintenance.
But the Moon also would have low cost exports because of its low delta v and because of Hoyt’s cislunar transport system which could reduce costs to almost zero (see my Exporting materials from the Moon)
Apart from this idea of a garden planet, it needs to be some product of the Venus atmosphere. Sulfuric acid is the obvious one, but not especially valuable. Might there be some really high value product? One possibility might be deuterium. As I mentioned in the discussion of Mars exports, Venus has a deuterium / hydrogen ratio 120 times Earth’s (and 24 times that of Mars)Implications of the high DH ratio for the sources of water in Venus' atmosphere. Instead of six tons of water electrolysis yielding one kilogram of deuterium, as is the case for Mars water, this would yield 24 kilograms of deuterium, or four kilograms per ton. However as for Mars, can we count on deuterium to be a valuable commodity in the future? And would the higher deuterium levels lead to more than a modest saving in the costs of extracting deuterium? Even with one atom in 54 consisting of deuterium, that’s still far from pure and would require many stages of whatever process is used. On the other hand unlike Mars, Venus does have abundant solar power, even more so than Earth, which may help. Still, as for Mars, this seems a bit of a stretch to me, unless some method is developed for making it much easier to extract deuterium quickly with minimal power requirements - but in that case costs would also be reduced hugely on Earth as well.
As for Mars, another possibility is products of indigenous life, as there is a small chance of life in the Venus clouds. There is indirect evidence in the form of asymmetrical microbe sized particles in the atmosphere and carbonyl sulfide, a clear sign of life here on Earth (though it could be created inorganically on Venus). See my: If there is Life in Venus Cloud Tops - Do we Need to Protect Earth - or Venus.
Again, as for Mars there’s the possibility of growing plants if conditions in the Venus clouds let you produce unusual food or decorative plants more easily, for instance, rare flowers on Mars that are very expensive to grow elsewhere, or similarly unusual and tasty rare new food stuffs that grow best on in the Venus clouds for some reason, perhaps genetically designed for those conditions, since the environment of the Venus clouds would be hard to replicate on Earth.
As for Mars, we have to explore Venus first.
Concept for a robotic airship called VAMP to explore Venus. It weighs only 450 kg, although its wingspan of 46 meters dwarfs the space shuttle . It would inflate while still in orbit around Venus attached to its mother ship, and then spiral down to the cloud tops in a slow motion re-entry that needs only minimal thermal protection. Incredible Technology: Inflatable Aircraft Could Cruise Venus Skies, details here Venus Atmospheric Maneuverable Platform It could explore the Venus atmosphere for years at the cloud tops, the same level that’s suggested for the Venus cloud colonies. Video discussion here
At a later stage, we could send astronauts to explore the atmosphere using airships, then return to Earth as explored in NASA’s HAVOC concept study. The return to orbit would be accomplished using something like the Pegasus air launched rocket. See project home page. This is an internal study, so it's at an early stage at present.
NASA Study Proposes Airships, Cloud Cities for Venus Exploration. Technical details here and here
Perhaps it’s possible that we might discover something of high value as we explore and study the Venus clouds. However, we can’t count on it at present.
MARS AS AN ASTEROID MINING HUB FOR THE DISTANT FUTURE - OR SHOULD IT BE VENUS?
I mentioned earlier that Robert Zubrin talked about the Mars system as a base to support asteroid miners in the more distant future. He thinks that Deimos and Phobos might be especially useful here. So, let’s just look at this for the more distant future. Intuitively, Mars is closer to the asteroid belt so you’d think, surely it’s the best place to support asteroid miners? However, the situation is not as clear as you might think.
First, asteroid mining is likely to start with NEOs - we get many asteroids that do close flybys of Earth, Venus or Mars, some with orbital periods close to the Earth or Venus year. The ones that do low delta v flybys of Earth seem the most likely ones for early mining operations after the Moon. We have dozens of large NEOs to mine first, kilometers in diameter. It’s not likely we’ll exhaust those any time soon, and this also has the extra benefit that we are removing asteroids that have the potential to hit Earth at some point in the maybe distant future. For NEOs ranked in various ways including commercial value, see astrorank.
We can also mine the Moon for asteroid resources - the Moon has been hit by many asteroids in the past, so whatever materials you have in asteroids are probably also on the Moon or in it. It's mainly a question of how accessible those materials are. There's some evidence suggesting that the Moon may have rich surface deposits of platinum (and so also of other metals) from the metallic core of the 100 km asteroid that created the Aitken basin as well as other iron rich asteroids and other asteroids of other compositions in the past (see Metals). The Apollo missions only explored a small part of the Moon and a few spots within that region and didn't travel far from their landing sites. Also they did nowhere near to a thorough survey of the places they did visit. They just didn't have the time for that, and only had a geologist there for the last mission. As for later investigations, you can only do so much with the few orbital missions we've had since then.
Then, when we do have humans in the asteroid belt, it's a lot of delta v to go from one asteroid to another and going via Mars doesn't help except on rare occasions. Most of the time, it will take much more delta v to get to an asteroid via Mars than a direct route, and the same is true for travel to / from Earth. Mars is only useful when you have an energy efficient trajectory that takes you from Mars to the asteroid, for instance via Hohmann transfer.
However, Geoffrey Landis has made a rather surprising observation here in his Colonization of Venus. See Accessibility of Asteroids from Venus in this paper. Even though Venus is closer to the Sun than Earth, because of Venus's faster orbit, the flight time to Ceres or Vesta is actually less from Venus than from Earth or Mars via Hohmann transfer. So Venus actually has advantages as a main asteroid belt mining hub over Mars, a bit counterintuitively. The transfer time is less and you have more opportunities also to get there because of Venus’s shorter year of 225 days instead of Mars’s 687 days, which is three times longer. So you’d get several opportunities to visit an asteroid from Venus for every single opportunity to visit it from Mars, though of course the delta v required is greater.
Hop David suggested the idea of Asteroid Cyclers to work in the same way as a Mars cycler, to cycle materials between Earth orbit and "railroad towns" colonies in the asteroid belt where the mining goes on. The same idea could be used to cycle materials between Venus and the asteroid belt.
Hop David has also suggested that Venus, and Mars would be good places to park large asteroids for mining operations - if it's too hazardous to risk parking them in Earth orbits. The Case For Asteroids. Of course this is for asteroids that already do close flybys of those planets.
Venus cyclers, like the more famous Mars "Aldrin cyclers", can get passengers from Earth to Venus by shuttling them to large spacecraft in permanent orbits that takes them back and forth between Earth and Venus over and over. The result is a somewhat shorter journey time than for Mars cyclers, and you can travel to Venus frequently, every 1..6 years instead of more than 2 years between visits. See his Case for Venus. If this happened, the cloud colonies could be useful for supplies to the asteroid miners, in return for supply of metals and other asteroid derived resources to the colonies.
So - though Mars might well be a useful staging post later on if we have a lot of people in the asteroid belt - the case is not as clear cut as you might think, and Venus might be as useful as Mars, even for supplies to the asteroid belt, depending on your priorities and the exact future situation. In the shorter term it might well be useful for mining asteroids that do close flybys of Venus, captured into Venus orbit temporarily for the purposes of mining.
CONCLUSIONS
So in short my conclusion is that the Moon is far superior over Mars in this respect and I am skeptical of the idea that a Mars colony could pay for itself via intellectual property. I just don’t see why the flow of intellectual property of commercial value has to be from Mars to Earth rather than vice versa or most likely both ways and I don’t find Robert Zubrin’s labour shortage argument in favour of that at all compelling.
Also it depends on not just inventing things but having the commercial talent to spot how to make the invention financially viable and the persistence and luck to take an invention all the way through to success. Why should Mars colonists be much better at this than anyone else? I don’t get it.
By contrast, I think a Lunar base could potentially be of commercial value, mainly because it has a low escape velocity and is so close to Earth and always at the same distance - especially so if something like Hoyt’s cislunar tether transport system is in place reducing transport costs almost to zero. It is also close enough for tourism to be a major industry eventually.
Mars I think will be the province of government sponsored or philanthropic explorations for some time - like Antarctica, where the return is not financial but scientific knowledge or just interest / excitement. I think that the initial stages of lunar exploration are also likely to be supported in a similar way - but that there is some possibility there of commercial value entering into the mix as well.
And I think we should explore Mars from orbit until we have a good understanding of surface conditions and especially not introduce Earth life to the planet. We could exploit it commercially from orbit through telerobotics, but that would depend on finding something there of commercial value to export. And I think conceivably there might be commercial exports from Mars in the future. Especially if the Mars biology produces some unique valuable biological product that can’t be made anywhere else - that might be worth exporting. But there’s currently nothing we know of that could be worth the cost of export from Mars, and whether there will be in the future, only the future can tell.
Longer term, Venus cloud colonies also seem of special interest. I suggest they are the least maintenance of all offworld habitats outside of Earth, so would need less income per habitant than any other space colony, but even so, it isn’t so easy to find a commercial case for more than an Antarctic style habitat maintained because of its science value and perhaps some tourism, because of the high costs of exports to orbit. Long term, if the orbital airships work out and reduce export costs to orbit almost to zero, perhaps Venus could be a place to grow food for export with the lowest mass and least maintenance greenhouses anywhere in the solar system outside of Earth. Orbital airships would also make Mars more commercially viable too. However, orbital airships would make it easier for Earth to export to space as well so both would have to compete with Earth, and of course the Moon.
In the more distant future both Mars and Venus could become a mining hubs for the asteroids, perhaps with asteroids parked in orbit around the planets for mining. In such a future, Venus, perhaps surprisingly, has some advantages over Mars for ease of access to the asteroid belt in terms of faster journey times and more frequent opportunities for travel.
This answer is an edited copy of the following sections of my Case For Moon First with some additional material:
No. Unless their aim is just to be delivered to Mars and die there, dead on arrival or soon after, that could be done on that budget perhaps, though it is very optimistic.
You've sold your house on ...
(more)No. Unless their aim is just to be delivered to Mars and die there, dead on arrival or soon after, that could be done on that budget perhaps, though it is very optimistic.
You've sold your house on Earth - to pay for your trip - but you still need somewhere to live on Mars. Is he going to provide free houses on Mars for all his colonists? Surely not. A house on Mars would be vastly more expensive than one on Earth. He would no longer be making a profit on every colonist, but rather, an immense loss. Even Elon Musk couldn't sustain a business shipping a hundred colonists to Mars at a time while making a loss of millions of dollars per colonist.
Also, it's not much use being on Mars without a spacesuit. A spacesuit will set you back $10 million. That's not including the design cost, just the cost for someone to make it, a months long job involving many complex intricate components, not unlike building a spaceship. Basically it is a very small mobile spaceship with its own independent life support. It also will need to be maintained and repaired, which itself is a tricky job, and it has a finite life too.
Suitsat - a Russian Orlon suit that reached the end of its useful life, discarded as a satellite experiment. With current technology at least, your "Mars suit", as complex as a small spaceship, would probably cost around $10 million to build, would need a lot of maintenance, and after using it for a while it would need to be discarded and replaced by a new one.
Elon Musk and Robert Zubrin are hopeful that Mars colonists could pay for their spacesuits, and everything else they need, through their inventions and other intellectual property, which they sell back to Earth.
Then, to survive in your habitat you need complex life support too. It's not like an aqualung with an endless supply of air. You need to have carbon dioxide scrubbed all the time as we can't survive long if levels build up to as high as 1% of the atmosphere, which doesn't take long in a small enclosed habitat. Many other noxious gases like hydrogen sulfide and sulfur dioxide will build up in the habitat too, like "sick building syndrome" to the nth degree. You can't just open a few windows to air your house.
How are you going to pay for all that technology, which also is likely to need a fair bit of servicing? You need solar power, you need batteries, or nuclear power to survive dust storms that blot out the sun. Then you have to have a habitat that can hold in the atmosphere at a pressure of ten tons per square meter outwards pressure. You also need radiation shielding meters thick covering it to protect from cosmic radiation and solar storms. How much does that kind of a "house" cost to build? You can't build it on Mars, except the shielding, the rest has to be imported from Earth. Also if it is anything like the ISS, it has a finite life. After a few decades you will need to import a new "house" to replace the old one which is now aged so much in the harsh space environment, surrounded by vacuum, huge temperature changes every day, that it is no longer worth repairing.
Nothing grows there. You are suddenly in the middle of a desert, with no water, maybe ice but it has to be melted to be used, a few rocks, and most difficult of all, no air to breathe. You never need to think about how to get air to breathe when colonizing on Earth. Without a pressurized spacesuit you can't even go outside to repair your habitat, so the spacesuit is vital. The average temperatures are the same as Antarctica, but it's much worse than that sounds, because the temperature swings are so extreme between day and night. It's so cold that carbon dioxide freezes out as dry ice / water ice frosts in the morning for 100 days of the two Earth year long Mars year even in the tropics. You get dust storms every two years which sometimes blot out the sun completely for weeks on end. If you somehow could take one of the coldest driest deserts on Earth, the Atacama desert, and elevate it to a height of 30 kilometers on Earth, you'd have the same atmospheric pressure as the lowest points on the Mars surface, that is still far more habitable than Mars (still a little oxygen in the atmosphere, more sunlight, no dust storms, easy access from Earth, ozone layer and magnetosphere to protect you somewhat), The top of Mount Everest (at 8.848 km above sea level) is far more hospitable than Mars. And how do you pay for it? Elon Musk's idea is that the colonists pay through inventing things.
Perhaps, as he says, Mars would have a labour shortage with jobs in short supply - but what job is going to apy you hundreds of millions of dollars to pay for your habitats and spacesuits on Mars, and their maintenance and repair and replacements when they wear out? And what exports will Mars have to pay for all those imports?
Well, Elon Musk shares Robert Zubrin's ideas that the Martian colonists in such tough situations will be so inventive they will invent a stream of inventions that transform life on Earth and earn them huge amounts of money to pay for their colony. I suppose it is understandable that he'd find this idea compelling ,considering his own inventiveness. It's based on analogies with the technological inventiveness of early settlers in the US. Again this seems bordering on fantasy to me. Surely it will be mainly the other direction, that with all their complex technology, which they will need just to survive at all, they will depend tremendously on the many discoveries we made on Earth? Even Elon Musk with all his inventiveness and business nous would not be able to pay to support everyone in a Mars colony, and he hasn't suggested that he hopes to do so.
If you've only read the articles and books, and listened to Mars colonization enthusiasts, as they wax lyrical in realms of fantasy about future Mars cities and a terraformed Mars, you may not realize that there are others who are profoundly skeptical about it all, bringing a perhaps sobering dose of common sense. Paul Spudis, senior staff scientist at the Lunar and Planetary institute in Houston, and author of The Value of the Moon: How to Explore, Live, and Prosper in Space Using the Moon's Resources. is particularly scathing about these ideas of a Martian colony in the near future. If you haven't come across these views before, his Delusions of a Mars Colonist may give you an interestingly different perspective.
"So aside from the inconvenient facts that we don’t know how to safely make the voyage, how to land on the planet, what the detailed chemistry of the soil is, or if we can access potable water, whether we can then grow food locally, or how to build habitats to shield us from the numbing cold and hostile surface environment, don’t know what protection is needed due to the toxic soil chemistry, or how to generate enough electrical power to build and operate an outpost or settlement – in spite of these annoying details that make this idea prohibitive, the creation of a Mars colony within a decade is marketed to the public as if the plans had already been drawn up."
..." With flashy artwork depicting futuristic cities, sleek flying cars, and lush green fields resplendent under transparent crystal domes (in startling contrast to the red-hued surrounding desert of the martian surface) it is simply assumed that a human colony on Mars will evolve into some kind of off-Earth utopia."
"But how will these future Mars inhabitants make a living? And by that, I mean what product or service will they offer that anybody on Earth will want? If you think that the answer is autarky (complete economic isolation and self-sufficiency), then you are imagining an economy (and likely, a political state) in which North Korea is a free market, pluralistic paradise by comparison. People who migrate to Mars need more than food and shelter – they will need imports from Earth, material and intellectual products designed to enrich and refine life on the frontier. What will they have of value to trade or to sell for these imports?"
..." Much is made of the possible economic value of “information,” but it is not clear that Mars is particularly rich in factual data marketable to those back on Earth, although a martian pioneer might have desperate need of it – which would make them their own “customers” and exacerbate the economic disparity of the colony to an even greater degree."
The Mars enthusiasts' plans get particularly sketchy when they cover the economics of a Mars colony (while Moon firsters tend to cover lunar economics in great detail). There is only one short, and perhaps not very convincing chapter on this in Case for Mars. This relies on that idea of exports of intellectual property rights by the inventive Mars colonists as one of the most important ways to pay for the colony.
Zubrin also covers the idea of exporting deuterium which is an idea that doesn’t really work when you look at it closely. Yes deuterium is valuable, but the Mars deuterium is only concentrated five times relative to the deuterium on Earth, it’s only present at a concentration of r 0.078% in Mars ice, and you have a target of 99% concentration. This would save just one step out of many in a deuterium enrichment plant.
Heavy water plant near Arroyito, photograph by Frandres This plant produces most of the world’s deuterium, at a rate of 200 tons per year, and is powered by a nearby hydroelectric power station at Arroyito dam with a power output of 128 MW. (I'm not sure how much of that power output is used for the plant, do say if any of you know).
The equipment for extracting deuterium weighs 27,000 tons including the support structures and includes 250 heat exchangers, 240 pressure vessels, 90 gas compressors 13 reactors and 30 distillation columns. (Statistics from Arroyito Heavy Water Production Plant, Argentina)
Other ideas for economic benefit from Mars are equally sketchy.
The Moon is a bit different. Though life would be very expensive there also, authors like Paul Spudis etc do pay a lot of attention to the commercial case. The big advantage the Moon has is its nearness to Earth, making exports far easier and tourism possible. It's not quite "day trip" but you could visit it, and be back within a week. Also there are various ideas that could reduce costs of transport to Earth hugely, which wouldn't work for Mars. It's only two days away also, with easy access any time of the year (not just every two years), and far far easier to get back in an emergency, which makes it much safer for humans. Far easier to leave the surface than for Mars, reducing export costs. Also there's the possibility of ice at its poles, combined with solar power available 24/7 year round as a source of abundant power. Paul Spudis and others believe it will be economic to supply this ice as water and rocket fuel to LEO, outcompeting water sent from Earth. Water is vital to humans in space and very expensive to send to orbit at present.
So, the "Moon firsters", though optimistic at times about the commercial value of the Moon, do tend to be far more realistic than the "Mars firsters". They are not so involved in these ideas that seem to belong more in science fiction than in real life, of just setting up home as if you could build a log cabin on Mars and live off the land. You may be interested in my Is there a fortune to be made on Mars, the Moon or anywhere else in space? in my "MOON FIRST Why Humans on Mars Right Now Are Bad for Science" (it was also featured as an article in Forbes magazine). It compares the economic case for Mars and for the Moon.
In “We Need to Stop Talking About Space as a ‘Frontier’.” by Lisa Messeri she suggested that language helps and that perhaps we need to stop thinking about space as a "Frontier" with its unfortunate connotations of damage to the environment of North America, and the destruction of American Indian peoples and cultures.
"Comparing outer space to the frontier is so prevalent that it’s sometimes hard to remember that it is a metaphor, not an accurate portrayal of what lies beyond Earth. The commercial space industry prides itself on newness and novelty, and yet the reliance on the same old metaphor both limits the imagination of humans in space and glosses over the social and historical problems of imagining a frontier that is empty and beckoning."
..." But mobilizations of the frontier metaphor from Turner to today don’t just ignore the historical reality of war, disease, and environmental destruction. The Americanness of the frontier metaphor is also at odds with the need for international cooperation in the new era of space exploration. While the frontier might inspire Tumlinson and his fellow American baby boomers, does it have salience more broadly? As we try and move from a model of space competition to space cooperation, does the frontier, which necessarily pits “us” against “them,” undermine the peaceful expansion many imagine?"
Steven Lyle Jordan put it rather well, I thought, in his blog post: Space is not a frontier, commenting on her article - why not refer to space as our "environment" rather than our frontier?
"There is lots of room for expansion in the Environment… but absolutely no guarantee that we can, in fact, expand beyond this oasis and thrive. Most of the Environment is downright hostile to us. Intelligence might allow us to figure out a way… but the uncontrolled elements of that vast Environment may eventually doom us to non-existence anyway. Once more… we have no way to know. But there’s nothing stopping us from trying; only the incredible difficulty and unlikelihood of succeeding."
"The word “environment” embodies the knowledge of science and nature, the desire to experience it and learn what is learnable… but not to desecrate, strip-mine or destroy it for personal gain. If that’s not a noble-enough reason to explore new environments, I don’t know what is."
"This way of thinking about space probably gives us the best and most accurate image of the universe and our place in it. It will also serve us best in imagining our future activities in space: How we should treat the vast Environment; and how we should act when or if we discover others out in the Environment. (It probably wouldn’t have hurt if we’d considered Earth this way, instead of seeing it as empty spaces to exploit. Just saying.)"
So, this focus on colonization for its own sake really narrows our vision, I think. Everything we do becomes a step on the way to the aim of eventually attempting to colonize a place with freezing temperatures, frequent dust storms, water only in the form of ice, and a near vacuum for an "atmosphere". Well that's how I see it at least.
So, I don’t see us colonizing any of these places for their own sake, any time soon. Rather there has to be some other reason to be there. The Moon is the most likely place to provide such a reason because it is so close to Earth and also so little gravity, and books on the Moon settlement have many chapters about the economic value of the Moon, unlike books on Mars that skim over this in a single chapter typically with rather sketchy ideas about how it just possibly might be economically worth while if .... Also, the lunar lava tube caves could potentially give huge low maintenance enclosed spaces. If we build closed system habitats like that, eventually, perhaps they could even be as economic to live in as Earth through economies of scale and because the Moon has no weather to speak of and is tectonically very quiet. But that's a bit of a way into the future.
Mars could provide such a reason too, for scientific study, search for present day life or past life, and its two moons also. Lockheed Martin looked into Phobos and Deimos as intermediate destinations for their "Stepping Stones to Mars" and they remain destinations of great scientific interest, both in their own right, and as a base for studying Mars from orbit. Deimos also is a type of meteorite that may well have abundant water ice. They are tiny worlds so we also need to consider the potential of negative scientific impact of humans building a base on them. Perhaps we might eventually have settlements there of some sort too. I cover this in detail in I cover this in the sections Interesting flyby and orbital missions for Mars.
Anyway I argue strongly that Moon is the obvious place to start our experiments in sending humans to somewhere else other than Earth, for safety reasons and nearness to Earth too as well as all the other reasons.
For more about this see my OK to Touch Mars? Europa? Enceladus? Or a Tale of Missteps? (This answer is mainly an extract from it).
See also my answer to Is there anything of economic value on Mars that would allow trade to finance a colony on Mars?
Well you didn’t say what you mean by the “next ISS”. If you mean the next big international space station in LEO, there are no plans at present. But if you mean by this the next big international s...
(more)Well you didn’t say what you mean by the “next ISS”. If you mean the next big international space station in LEO, there are no plans at present. But if you mean by this the next big international space project, then I think the ESA village is the best bet for the next one.
It will probably be at the Moon’s north or south pole, at one of the “peaks of almost eternal light” next to craters of almost eternal darkness. The sun will skim around the horizon, and be visible 24/7 nearly all the year round. Temperature near constant. Heat rejection is easy because anything flat on the surface never gets any sunlight on it. Solar power can be collected by a vertical panel that rotates once a month - or mirrors can reflect it to a rover or panel that needs it. They would explore the ice that probably has collected in permanently shadowed regions around the poles. Other missions to the Moon could explore the probably vast lunar caves.
It would be like the ISS but called a “village” because you can have many habitats in a small geographical region, either physically connected or close by. Both China and Russia want to be involved in it. The US is the only major space faring country that isn’t interested at present.
The habitats could share facilities or have separate facilities. Even if some of them are are just close enough to each other to offer help in an emergency, there are obvious benefits in proximity somewhere as hostile as the vacuum of the Moon.
ESA are the ones who are promoting it at present. I think it should be very interesting and the format of a “village” allows a much more flexible approach than the ISS.
I think we are bound to continue to have space stations of some sort for humans in LEO. But they don’t need to be as large as the ISS. China will surely continue with its space stations in LEO, and I’d have thought there’d be some value in habitats in LEO and probably at L1 / L2 as part of the plans to explore the Moon. I think, though nobody is actually planning this, that it would be useful to have some sort of space station in LEO to experiment with artificial gravity and closed systems for space habitats, growing their food etc, with artificial gravity through spinning, perhaps using a tether system. This could be a much smaller, lower cost facility than the ISS. So far there have been no experiments in artificial gravity at all applied to humans.
Also, by the mid 2020s it might be that we get Skylon flying into space regularly, perhaps costs of rocket launches go right down and so on.
Those though are conjectures. The ESA village I think is the only currently planned international space project that is at a stage where it looks like it might actually happen. I think myself that it’s a shame that NASA are not interested in joining in though they may well get involved in a station at L1. Trump has canceled the asteroid redirect mission and his space plan has no goal at all in the Earth Moon system outside of LEO as far as I know. The Moon is the obvious and closest place to visit and hardly explored. Perhaps his administration may eventually get interested in a return to the Moon.
Whether or not, I think by the mid 2020s all the other space faring nations probably will join in building a lunar village. And we’ll see what the US does when that happens. I can’t see everyone joining in sending humans to Mars myself. Not at this stage, though that is what the US wants them to do.
For details, see my Case For Moon First
No, the Soyuz is by far our safest spacecraft. It’s got multiple safety systems including a launch abort system that was actually used in 1983 and it saved all the crew. The Space Shuttle didn’t ha...
(more)No, the Soyuz is by far our safest spacecraft. It’s got multiple safety systems including a launch abort system that was actually used in 1983 and it saved all the crew. The Space Shuttle didn’t have a launch abort system. Though the first few Soyuz were dangerous, they have learnt from them. And the main thing about the Soyuz is that the Russians, having found a good design, have stuck with it for decades and so achieved an excellent safety record.
It’s going to take a while for any new ways to get humans into space to match their record, just because it costs so much to launch into space. If the new space companies have a single crash that kills all the crew, then that will set them way behind the Russians and it would be hard after that to establish their spacecraft as safer than the Soyuz. So it’s like a “gold standard” of space safety.
The Apollo spacecraft had a good safety record too, apart from Apollo 1, but they didn’t have anything like as many launches and of course Apollo 13 came close to disaster. The Space Shuttle obviously didn’t have a good safety record, 135 missions with two crashes List of Space Shuttle missions. The Chinese have an excellent 100% safety record so far but that’s with a total of only six flights to date. Shenzhou program
The Soyuz hasn’t had a fatal accident since Soyuz 11 in 1971. Their launch escape system has only been used once, for mission 45 in 1983, which is also the only time to date that a launch escape vehicle has been used in any mission with crew on board. Everyone survived. They are now on mission 132. That makes it 111 missions in a row so far without a fatality and only minor issues since 1983.
If we do get commercial flights with hundreds of missions into space every year, then maybe one of them will beat the Russian record. But the way SpaceX is going, then they are talking about “fun but dangerous” missions pushing the envelope of what is possible. Their second mission with humans, they say, will send them around the Moon, a very risky flight. If they do follow that approach then I can’t see them matching the Soyuz safety record. But I think that this may be more like inspirational “sales talk” to get everyone excited about their human spaceflight program. I hope so.
Their ideas of using the same rocket for human and for unmanned flight may let them do many more tests with unmanned records, earning money each time, if they don’t keep changing the design. If they do it that way, so that the rocket humans fly in is the same one that the cargo flew on, then they could perhaps rival the Soyuz safety record.
They do also have the issue that they are going to load the fuel after the passengers which former astronauts and other experts have said is a safety issue as when the fuel is loaded there’s a chance of the rocket blowing up with humans on board. If that happens, even if the launch abort system works and sends them to safety, well launch abort is not meant to be triggered at all, is very much a last resort. So I think they have an extra challenge there, to demonstrate that this innovative approach of launching the fuel after the passengers is indeed safe, and then they would need many safe flights to begin to rival the Soyuz record.
See also my Why I Wouldn't Fly With SpaceX To The Moon As Soon As 2018 - If They Paid Me A Billion Dollars
It’s the same with the others, Blue Origin, Virgin Galactica - and indeed the Chinese, it’s just going to take some time for them to rack up over 100 spaceflights to show statistically that they are safer than Soyuz. And it’s hard to prove that just by theory and modeling as that often goes wrong.
I think our best bet of beating the safety record of Soyuz myself, in the near future, is the UK / ESA’s air breathing Skylon. The reason is because it will take off and land horizontally, like a jet plane from a conventional runway (though reinforced to take the extra weight of fuel during lift off). The whole thing is re-used “as is”.
Artist's concept of it taking off into orbit
It’s like SpaceX - it can fly either crew or cargo (not like the Space Shuttle that had to have crew on board), so they can have many cargo flights before the first crewed flight. But with such rapid turnaround, every Skylon plane could fly into space every week.
If they had two or three such planes eventually, each flying into space with human passengers every week, they could beat the Soyuz record in a single year. And because it can take cargo into space without humans, and can earn income for every cargo flight, and basically flies humans just like the cargo, controlled from the ground, then there is no need to fly humans early on. They could have a hundred cargo flights before flying the first humans into space if they wanted to.
There are other ideas for space planes like that. But it’s the only one that is at such an advanced state and with the UK and ESA committed to it, then I think it has a decent chance of reaching fruition.
It may be ready to fly some time in the 2020s. If it is as good as it seems it might be, it could beat the Soyuz safety record within a year or two of whenever it first starts doing regular flights every week into space with passengers.
He uses a “word of command” somewhat earlier to light a fire in wet wood as they try to go over Caradhras
This also was a desperate situation. It was cold and the hobbits were on the point of death
(more)‘...
He uses a “word of command” somewhat earlier to light a fire in wet wood as they try to go over Caradhras
This also was a desperate situation. It was cold and the hobbits were on the point of death
‘You may make a fire, if you can,’ answered Gandalf. ‘If there are any watchers that can endure this storm, then they can see us, fire or no.’
But though they had brought wood and kindlings by the advice of Boromir, it passed the skill of Elf or even Dwarf to strike a flame that would hold amid the swirling wind or catch in the wet fuel. At last reluctantly Gandalf himself took a hand. Picking up a faggot he held it aloft for a moment, and then with a word of command, naur an edraith ammen! he thrust the end of his staff into the midst of it. At once a great spout of green and blue flame sprang out, and the wood flared and sputtered.
“If there are any to see then I at least am revealed to them,’ he said. ‘I have written Gandalf is here in signs that all can read from Rivendell to the mouths of the Anduin.
So we actually have the words of a “word of command”. It may mean “spell producing fire”
So the words themselves don’t seem especially important. At least - perhaps you could interpret the passage differently but the most natural reading I think is that he spoke the words aloud for anyone listening to hear.
And he says “If there are any to see then I at least am revealed to them,” which also suggests that it’s not the words as such that are important but the person who spoke them.
No. For one thing that analogy is pretty flawed. Our biosphere doesn’t crash every month or so. It doesn’t at all. To crash means to make Earth uninhabitable to humans. Even if 96% of Earth’s speci...
(more)No. For one thing that analogy is pretty flawed. Our biosphere doesn’t crash every month or so. It doesn’t at all. To crash means to make Earth uninhabitable to humans. Even if 96% of Earth’s species went extinct somehow, you can pretty much guarantee that some of that remaining 4% would be edible to versatile omnivores like ourselves that have the ability to cultivate food, cook, light fires, use clothes to stay warm, make boats to travel wherever we want to go on the sea, etc etc. And whatever happens we have air to breathe, atmospheric pressure just right, temperature just right, liquid water, protection from UV light and ionizing radiation, …
Mars is just not any kind of a “new world”. It’s got no atmosphere to speak of to start with. Can you imagine setting out on a boat to America and when you land there, unless you have a fully pressurized spacesuit, you die? And that you can’t go outside your habitat without one? A spacesuit that costs $10 million to build and often needs repairing and eventually needs to be replaced.
Then you can only live in habitats that cost goodness knows how much to build and transport to Mars, that also have a finite life like your spacesuit, perhaps a few decades if you are lucky before the whole thing needs to be replaced (at least judging by all our space habitats to date). Also to stay alive even in the habitat, you need elaborate life support to not just supply oxygen but also scrub out carbon dioxide (which is going to kill you if it gets above 1%), and hydrogen sulfide, sulfur dioxide and other nasties that can build up in a habitat with no ventilation. Of course you can’t just open a window to let out stale or even poisonous air.
Elon Musk says, sell your house, and if you can get half a million dollars from the proceeds, he’ll be able to transport you to Mars. Perhaps he may achieve that goal, it’s hard to say yet. But if he does, he’s surely not going to pay the hundreds of millions of dollars per “colonist” to buy you a house on Mars or even the ten million dollars for a spacesuit, nor supply you with provisions from Earth, in that budget. So what can you do there without a house or a spacesuit?
There you are on a planet without a breathable atmosphere, with solar storms and cosmic radiation, and where even in the tropics it gets so cold at night, 100 nights of the two Earth year long year that carbon dioxide freezes out as dry ice. Its morning frosts may look quite Earth like until you realize that they mean that at night it got colder than dry ice.
Frosts on Mars - this photograph from Viking 2. Mildly enhanced to bring out the colour of the frost. But this is not like Earth frosts. It does contain water ice but it’s also mixed with dry ice and though the water ice will last longest in the sunlight in daytime the frosts can’t form in this region of Mars without dry ice.
The frosts form when the air gets cold enough to condense out as dry ice, taking water vapour with it.
The Martian night is bitterly cold, even in the tropics.
Dust storms that block out 99% of the sun for weeks on end.
How is it going to give humans a better chance of survival to try and set up home on such a desolate spot which requires such immensely expensive technology just to stay alive?
What we need to do is to protect and sustain our Earth. It’s the only place we know of in our solar system that is so habitable to us. There is no conceivable future disaster that could make Earth as inhospitable to life as Mars.
They wave hands and show artist’s impressions of a terraformed Mars, but nobody knows if that is possible, and the most optimistic estimates are a thousand years to get to a carbon dioxide atmosphere that possibly might support trees if you can make Mars warm enough. But you’d need to use vast quantities of artificial greenhouse gases pumped into the atmosphere (cubic kilometers of fluorite ore mined every century, and 500 power stations running continuously just to supply the electricity to make the greenhouse gases), or planet sized mirrors to keep it warm enough.
The atmosphere would still be poisonous to humans. Even if it was Earth pressure somehow (with very optimistic assumptions about vast reserves of carbon dioxide that haven’t been detected yet deep below the ground) then you couldn’t just use an oxygen mask, like the climbers on Mount Everest. Just 1% of carbon dioxide would kill you. So you need an oxygen / nitrogen mixture in a closed cycle breathing system, even on that “terraformed Mars” after a thousand years of terraforming.
That’s the “easy way” making optimistic projections about the amount of carbon dioxide there.
It’s even more “hand waving” projections to suppose that eventually we could get some facsimile of an Earth atmosphere there. If they use photosynthesis, Chris McKay estimates, 100,000 years to fix the carbon dioxide into a meters thick layer of organics for oxygen, and then you need even more greenhouse gases to keep it warm because a copy of Earth’s atmosphere would be far too cold for Mars without extra help. But what if it goes in some unexpected direction, build ups of methane or hydrogen sulfide, or sulfur dioxide? It’s hard enough to just shift the amount of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere by parts per billion. Imagine trying to adjust to compensate for something that went wrong in the atmospheric composition of Mars when you try to terraform it.
It’s a fun idea, it’s great that these scientists are exploring it. As pure research, who knows where it might lead. It may help us understand exoplanets, help us to design smaller scale enclosed habitats, help us better understand how our own Earth works. But it is not remotely practical at present. There is much to go wrong in this plan. And what government or collaboration of governments is likely to sustain a project like that, probably costing trillions a year, for a thousand years? We have trouble keeping up a government plan for a few decades. And the “colonists” in such harsh difficult conditions are not going to be able to do it without extensive support from Earth.
As for backing up knowledge, yes, we could do that outside of Earth. But the best place to do that is on the Moon. Close at hand, we could even build a radiotransmitter there that could be interrogated from Earth by a civilization that has lost its space technology. Very stable, no weather to speak of, no storms, bury it deep down and it is protected from all except the worst impacts too. It’s an ideal place for a seed vault too, permanently kept cold at ideal temperatures to preserve viability of the seeds. If you want a backup ,do it on the Moon. Perhaps with a small population of caretakers. Backup on the Moon - seed banks, libraries, and a small colony
But not of humans, there’s nothing going to make us extinct except voluntary extinction, probably. There are many things we could do to make Earth less habitable for humans than it is. But nothing we could do to make it anything like as uninhabitable as Mars. We simply don’t have the technology at present to do that. With any of the suggested disasters for Earth, ask yourself, could it result in an Earth that would be less habitable than Mars?
It would be far far easier to inhabit such an Earth than Mars. You can breathe the air, live in non pressurized houses, go outside without a spacesuit, etc etc.
We are amongst the least endangered of all the creatures on Earth. But we can help prevent some of the others of Earth’s creatures going extinct. And we can help protect and preserve Earth for ourselves also.
Yes there was. The risk was that if there was life on the Moon, returned to Earth, it could in the worst case harm us and our ecosystem. Joshua Lederberg, who got his Nobel prize for his work on mi...
(more)Yes there was. The risk was that if there was life on the Moon, returned to Earth, it could in the worst case harm us and our ecosystem. Joshua Lederberg, who got his Nobel prize for his work on microbial genetics, was first to draw our attention to such issues. He was already concerned about it back in the 1950s. Carl Sagan was another early pioneer, who publicized the issues in his popular books.
It is still an issue, no longer for the Moon, but for Mars, Europa, Enceladus, anywhere that might have life. Jim Rummel, former NASA planetary protection officer, put it like this in his foreword to Michael Meltzer's "When Biospheres Collide" (about the history of NASA’s planetary protection program):
“"We are bathed in Earth organisms, which makes finding our own kind of life palpably easy and detecting indigenous life on other worlds much more difficult. We are not exploring the solar system to discover life that we have brought with us from home, and we are aware that Earth organisms (read: invaders) could very well erase traces of truly extraterrestrial life."
"Likewise, we don't know what would happen if alien organisms were introduced into Earth's biosphere. Would a close relationship (and a benign one) be obvious to all, or will Martian life be so alien as to be unnoticed by both Earth organisms and human defenses? We really have no data to address these questions, and considerate scientists fear conducting these experiments without proper safeguards. After all, this is the only biosphere we currently know - and we do love it!"
The life might be harmless and benign. But if the returned life was so alien that Earth organisms defenses don’t notice it, then it could also be able to overwhelm us, live inside or on us, and our bodies would mount no defenses against it. That was Joshua Lederberg’s insight originally.
So, NASA knew that they had to take precautions, and did try. But with hindsight we can now see that the way they did it was woefully inadequate. Indeed, they also didn’t even keep to the provisions of their own plan, with many failures of procedure at the time, and the reasons for that are instructive also.
NOWADAYS CONSIDERED TO BE MAINLY OF INTEREST AS A VALUABLE LESSON IN THE THINGS THAT CAN GO WRONG
The history of the early precautions against life returned from the Moon are now thought to be of most use as an example of the things that can go wrong, for planning about any future sample return handling facility. See 7 Lessons Learned from the Quarantine of Apollo Lunar Samples
First, the guidelines were only published on the day of the launch of Apollo 11 to the Moon. There was no opportunity for expert peer review of it. This would not be permitted nowadays in our much more legally complex world. Indeed there would be numerous laws to be passed before that one, in a complex process, requiring domestic legislation, several laws, some of which can only be passed after others, international agreement, and even the need probably for domestic legislation to be passed in other countries as well, since the returned sample could impact on them also, even if they are not involved in the mission in any way.
Also, the people who operated the quarantine facilities for the sample return hadn’t had adequate training and experience and tests of their ability to respond and take the right precautions, before they were faced with actually dealing with samples returned from the Moon.
APOLLO 11 SPLASHDOWN - FIRST FAILURE OF THEIR PROCEDURES WHEN THEY OPENED THE COMMAND MODULE DOOR
The biggest issue is what happened after the Apollo 11 splashdown. The mission planners made an “on the spot” decision to ignore one of the key provisions in their plan when Apollo 11 landed in the sea.
As Carl Sagan put it in “Cosmic Connection”:
"The one clear lesson that emerged from our experience in attempting to isolate Apollo-returned lunar samples is that mission controllers are unwilling to risk the certain discomfort of an astronaut - never mind his death - against the remote possibility of a global pandemic. When Apollo 11, the first successful manned lunar- lander, returned to Earth - it was a spaceworthy, but not a very seaworthy, vessel - the agreed-upon quarantine protocol was immediately breached. It was adjudged better to open the Apollo n hatch to the air of the Pacific Ocean and, for all we then knew, expose the Earth to lunar pathogens, than to risk three seasick astronauts. So little concern was paid to quarantine that the aircraft-carrier crane scheduled to lift the command module unopened out of the Pacific was discovered at the last moment to be unsafe. Exit from Apollo 11 was required in the open sea."
The original plan was to lift the module out of the sea in a crane and only open it on deck, enclosed, so making sure that no dust from the Moon could fall into the sea. But they decided the crane was unsafe. Rather than leave the astronauts bobbing on the sea, getting seasick, cooped up in their command module with the world watching, while they tried to figure out a solution - the planners made an on the spot decision to send a helicopter crew and to use divers in a boat to just get them out of the command module as it bobbed about in the open sea. This meant that though they did get into decontamination suits, it was already too late.
Diver opens the door to the command module as it bobs in the open sea and crew get out, already dressed in their decontamination suits. Some of the dust from the Moon that got everywhere inside the module surely got into the sea at this point. This was not part of their plans, but was an “on the spot” decision by mission planners because the crane that was going to take the module out of the sea had malfunctioned, and they felt that it was unacceptable to keep the astronauts waiting while they fixed it.
When they opened the module door, some of the dust that got everywhere inside the module must have got into the sea at that point - you could hardly think of a worse place to contaminate with life from the Moon. For instance suppose there was some photosynthetic life form on the Moon that was capable of out competing the photobionts in our ocean? Then by now the entire ocean biosphere would be transformed. Only those that could eat those life forms, whatever they were, would have survived.
There were other breaches of their protocols later on, due to inexperienced staff at the lunar sample handling facility, also Buzz Aldrin has an amusing story about how ants somehow found their way into the quarantine facility, while they were in it, through some crack or other. But that first one was the biggy. When Carl Sagan saw what happened, he was appalled.
The Apollo 11 procedures are of most interest to planetary protection researches as a valuable lesson that has highlighted issues like this.
From left to right, Neil Armstrong, Michael Collins and Buzz Aldrin in their quarantine unit after return from the Moon. This was largely a symbolic gesture and didn't do much to protect Earth from microbes on the Moon, if there had been any. They had already been taken out of the command module into an open boat in the ocean, and Buzz Aldrin has an amusing anecdote about the time he noticed tiny ants that found their way into their quarantine module. Even if they had carried out the protocols perfectly, they wouldn't have protected the Earth according to present day understanding.
Their quarantine protocols were published on the day of launch with no opportunity for peer review. The duration of the quarantine of three weeks was also arbitrary. Leprosy, for instance, has a latency period of decades.
Also, there was no scientific justification for the length of the quarantine period, for instance Leprosy has a latency period of decades. Even rabies nowadays is thought of as needing a quarantine period of three months. Nor are humans the only creatures that could be impacted - microbes returned from elsewhere could be harmless to us, yet still severely impact our biosphere, or other lifeforms we depend on, or that matter to us. So the quarantine again was largely symbolic. The whole thing was mainly symbolic after that first breach though, showing they cared, but not actually doing much to keep life from the Moon away from Earth’s biosphere.
OTHER WAYS ET MICROBES COULD HARM US
There are many other ways that microbes could harm us, without attacking any Earth life directly. The harm could just be an accidental result of something they do.
I made this “future fake news” story based on one of the examples experts have used, blooms of algae. It’s to illustrate why planetary protection experts are firm in saying that we have to take precautions to ensure something that this can’t happen.
The photo there is a detail from an algal bloom of Lake Eyrie in October 2011 during its worst cyanobacteria bloom for a long time. The cyanobacteria produced microcystins which is a liver toxin and can cause sudden death in cattle within hours, also often kills dogs swimming in the water and is a skin irritant for people.
The algae is not "keyed to the hosts" in any way, and it is no advantage to an algae to kill cattle or dogs. It's used as an example of one way that life from another planet could harm our biosphere
I made this “future fake news” story with this online Newspaper generator
As Chris Chyba put it in his abstract:
"It is unlikely that these cyanobacteria evolved the toxins in response to dairy cows; rather the susceptibility of cattle to these toxins seems simply to be an unfortunate coincidence of a toxin working across a large evolutionary distance"
Though we have a much more detailed picture now, with more in depth understanding of capabilities of extremophiles particularly, and of how small a microbe could be (experts say it could be as small as 50 nm in diameter potentially if not based on DNA), astrobiologists were already saying loud and clear that there is a need to take precautions at the time of Apollo 11.
EVENTUAL PROOF THAT THE SAMPLES WERE HARMLESS
At the time they already thought the risk was tiny, knowing that the Moon had no atmosphere. But Carl Sagan had suggested there could be moisture deep below the surface where life could survive and grow, and that though life actually growing on the surface was impossible, hardy viable spores were not.
So one of the first things they did with the returned samples was to test to see if there were any viable spores in them. There were none, not in the few samples they looked at carefully in this way.
They continued to take these precautions until Apollo 14.
WHAT WILL NASA DO WITH SAMPLES COLLECTED BY CURIOSITY 2020
NASA plan to cache samples from Mars on its surface in the 2020s, and return them in the 2030s. But they haven’t yet said anything about how they plan to deal with back contamination issues during that mission, AFAIK. It’s for the next decade and they only plan one decade in detail at a time.
Artist's impression of a sample return mission from Mars - image credit ESA. It would carry back samples totaling a little over half a kilogram of material, at a cost of many billions of dollars.
With this background, and just the sheer amount of legislation needed to return an unsterilized sample from Mars, especially when you don’t know what is in it, I expect the NASA sample return mission plans to be radically altered when they get the “sticker shock” of the cost of the facility to receive it (half a billion at last estimate some years ago), realize how extensive and complex the legal situation is, and also realize that, as a result of all the lessons learnt from the Apollo precautions, the facility is required to be up and running before they launch the mission to return the sample.
The sample probably won’t have life in it, because they would return it without testing for the presence of life first, just organics, which our Mars meteorites have anyway, believed to be created in abiotic processes or delivered by meteorites to Mars. They also won’t attempt to approach sites that are most likely to have life as Curiosity 2020 won’t be adequately sterilized to do that.
But on the probably small chance that it does have viable spores in it, they would have to take all these elaborate precautions.
I can’t see them doing that for less than a half kilogram of material, not thought likely to have present day life in it. Instead, surely they will sterilize the sample before returning it, in some way. Or I wonder if they might choose to return it to above GEO which would have none of these legal issues, and would save half a billion dollars, or probably more, just on the receiving facility and simplify it in many practical ways and not have the legal issues. They could then send equipment from Earth up to GEO to study it, and return sterilized fragments of the samples back to Earth. If all that is carefully planned and executed I could see it being done under COSPAR within the existing legislation without modification.
For more about all this see my book on planetary protection, OK to Touch Mars? Europa? Enceladus? Or a Tale of Missteps?
This is covered in the section: Planetary protection - researches by Sagan and Lederberg onwards - and Zubrin's arguments and other sections linked to it.
There isn’t one in the Christian sense. In the Therevadhan traditions the first moment of your next life (moment of conception or however it is it starts) is the next moment after the last moment o...
(more)There isn’t one in the Christian sense. In the Therevadhan traditions the first moment of your next life (moment of conception or however it is it starts) is the next moment after the last moment of your previous life. In the later Mahayana traditions there are various ideas. Zen Buddhists don’t say much about what happens.
The Tibetans go into a lot of detail, saying that there is an intermediate state which can last up to several weeks. That’s not an afterlife though. It’s a state between one life and another where you experience very bright lights, loud sounds etc. If you open out to those you could become enlightened. But it’s not different from becoming enlightened within a lifetime.
Most people get scared and try to run away and hide from all the bright lights and sounds. That then is how they take rebirth in a new life in the Tibetan teachings.
It may sound like an afterlife, but it isn’t, it’s just temporary, between two states. Treating it like an afterlife is a bit like treating an airplane flight from one country to another as an afterlife because it is intermediate between the two countries. Or - the moment when you go through a door. As you go through a door, then there’s a shift to a new way of looking at things the other side of the door. Indeed if you go through a door you often forget things which you can recover if you go back into the room you just came out of. So in the same way going to a new life is like going through a door and the intermediate state is like that moment when you go through it. The Therevadhans think it happens instantly, isn’t even a door really. The Tibetans think in some cases it can take weeks though for others it is instant.
As for the various lives you can have, so long as it is dependent on conditions, Buddha’s insight before he became enlightened was that it is temporary and can cease. He found techniques of meditation which were thought to lead to not just peace, not just bliss, but states more refined than that, not just in this lifetime but for countless trillions of years into the future after he died. However he came to see that even the most long lived wonderful lives will end eventually. So when you read about “Buddhist realms” - none of those is an afterlife either. Even the most refined “god realms” where you are no longer even tied down to any kind of a body but just experience pure happiness or even more refined states for trillions of years - none of those are an afterlife. Because like any life, eventually it ends , through things changing, through impermanence.
And the same waking up that can happen between one life and the next can also happen in your daily life, any time, in principle. Indeed in some of the Mahayana teachings, in Zen satori and some of the Tibetan teachings, we all have tiny opportunities of awakening like that, all the time. It’s like every moment you go through an intermediate state, pass through, and enter the next moment, once your mind gets very attuned to this. Like the whole universe is fresh again after every moment. You always have this vista, this fresh start on everything, if we could but see it that way, no matter how dire your situation, it may be so stressful or painful it’s impossible for us caught up in our suffering to see but we have this in every moment.
So though there is no afterlife, there are potential moments of awakening, the nearest we have to the concept in Buddhism, present all the time, in every moment of your life.
That’s not just a feature Zen or Tibetan Buddhism. Though it is expressed a little differently, the idea that enlightenment happens now, in this life, is present in Therevadhan Buddhism also.
Walpola Rahula put it like this:
"It is incorrect to think that Nirvana is the natural result of the extinction of craving. Nirvana is not the result of anything. If it would be a result, then it would be an effect produced by a cause. It would be sankhata ‘produced’ and ‘conditioned’. Nirvana is neither cause nor effect. It is beyond cause and effect. Truth is not a result nor an effect. It is not produced like a mystic, spiritual, mental state, such as dhyana or samadhi. TRUTH IS. NIRVANA IS. The only thing you can do is to see it, to realize it. There is a path leading to the realization of Nirvana. But Nirvana is not the result of this path.You may get to the mountain along a path, but the mountain is not the result, not an effect of the path. You may see a light, but the light is not the result of your eyesight.
...
In almost all religions the summum bonum can be attained only after death. But Nirvana can be realized in this very life; it is not necessary to wait till you die to ‘attain’ it."
The four truths are understood in this way in all the main sutra traditions, Zen , Tibetan, Therevadhan, etc.
It’s a common misunderstanding of Buddha’s path that the aim is to “get out of Samsara”. But there is nowhere else to go according to his teachings. Anywhere you can go after you die, into a new life, and anywhere you can go in this life too, is dependent on whatever conditions took you from here to there. So, as Buddhists understand it, it is just like a holiday, a very long one perhaps, another life in Samsara. Some of those lives may be very blissful, last for long periods of time, but eventually your holiday ends, you die in some form and end up in another life, so you never actually really left Samsara. Not as Buddha taught.
When you awaken, you haven’t gone anywhere else. Buddha taught that he awakened already as a young man. He continued to wander through India teaching for another half century after that.
This is abundantly clear in the sutra traditions.
WHAT ABOUT A TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTION - COULD WE NOT SOMEHOW FIND A WAY WITH TECHNOLOGY TO ACHIEVE PERFECT PERMANENT HAPPINESS IN AN INFINITE LIFE?
The Buddha's insight applies to technologically extended life too. The main question to ask yourself - “Does this depend on conditions?” Does it depend on that technology or whatever it is to keep them alive?
If so, that’s a failure point. The technology might fail so you can’t say that you are totally free of any possibility of future suffering or death.
Also, eventually the universe itself may pass away. We live in a young planet around a young star in a galaxy that still has lots of gas and dust, making new stars all the time. In all directions our universe seems very youthful. But eventually our universe too will age. We don’t know what will happen, but it will change. Some think that all matter may eventually turn to light.
Whatever happens, I see the technological futures some people sketch out of vastly extended life, if it ever happens, as a modern equivalent of the Buddhist god realms. They are described in the sutras as having tremendously long lives, countless trillion years, more than that. As long and longer as the lives of immensely long lived extraterrestrials and future humans in our science fiction.
So, if you are following the Buddhist path, such long happy lives are like a very long "holiday" - but no technology could be guaranteed to keep you happy and healthy literally forever, there'll always be ways it could fail. Even if you have to wait for degeneration of the proton or for spontaneous collapse of ordinary small pieces of matter into black holes through quantum tunneling which takes just about for ever. There will be something that could end your life.
It is worthwhile of course, to extend ones life, to find ways to be happy, and to be healthy. It’s that it is not a “happy ever after” truly, for all time. It’s not like a true “afterlife”, nor is it awakening or enlightenment.
IS THIS WHAT BUDDHA ORIGINALLY TAUGHT
The scholars who try to fit everything into the idea of some kind of a “get out of here” other state or afterlife after Buddha died have to say that the sutras have got altered since Buddha originally taught them. So could they have been?
As to whether this is how the historical Buddha actually taught, there’s a range of views on that. Some think that the Buddhist teachings were preserved at least up to the time of the Pali canon, in the same way that the ancient Indian Vedas were preserved, through memorization. The Vedas are not sacred texts at all for Buddhists. But many early Buddhists were trained as Brahmins to memorize the Vedas and so were able to memorize the Buddhist sutras using the same techniques. Others think that there’s a core of teachings from the historical Buddha which have been added to. I think those who say that they are for the most part unchanged have a very strong case myself. See Origins of the Buddhist Sutras - were they the Teachings of the Buddha? by Robert Walker on Some ideas about Buddhist teachings
All the Buddhist scholars are agreed that the Mahayana sutras were composed many centuries after Buddha died. Apart from anything else, they often refer to events that happened after he died (the Pali canon does not, not even to the radicaly changed political geography of India soon after he died which is one of the strong points in favour of them being the original teachings of the Buddha). Mahayana Buddhists are not bothered by that. Many of the traditions also have the idea that the inspriation of enlightenment continues to give rise to new teachings through to the present day, with the Zhen Buddhist koans and many Tibetan newly inspired poems and practices.
And again in both traditions, in a way it doesn’t matter that much whether Buddha taught like that. Because he taught a path that any individual practitioner can validate from their own experience. In the Kalama Sutta: To the Kalamas
“Traditions are not to be followed simply because they are traditions. Reports (such as historical accounts or news) are not to be followed simply because the source seems reliable. One's own preferences are not to be followed simply because they seem logical or resonate with one's feelings. Instead, any view or belief must be tested by the results it yields when put into practice; and — to guard against the possibility of any bias or limitations in one's understanding of those results — they must further be checked against the experience of people who are wise. The ability to question and test one's beliefs in an appropriate way is called appropriate attention. The ability to recognize and choose wise people as mentors is called having admirable friends.”
This also applies to ideas of what happens when you die. The most important thing in the Buddhist path is to keep an open mind about what you don’t know. If you don’t know what “really” happens when you die, well there is no value in trying to convince yourself you do know, to try to make yourself believe something like that because a sacred text says so, not in the Buddhist path. Indeed the starting point of wisdom in the path is to recognize clearly what you don’t know.
So the teachings are very much living things. Though the sutras are grounding and important, it’s not like we are following the teachings of someone long dead, it’s a living tradition, continually refreshed by the understanding of those who teach us (of all forms, the “wise friends” don’t have to be Buddhists) and ourselves.
So we continually validate the path ourselves in our lives, as do all the other practitioners following this path. And the path as taught in the sutras, validated in this way, is a clear one, there is nowhere else to go. We can have holidays, long periods of time when we are carefree and happy, maybe even totally blissed out, but they don’t take us to a “happy ever after” much as they may seem to at the time. The holidays always end. And the teaching, for us to look at and examine for ourselves, is that there is nowhere in the whole cycle of existence that’s a “happy ever after” endless holiday from our situation.
We have to work with our situation “as is”. The teaching is that there is a way forward, there’s the possibility of awakening, enlightenment, but that the way to seeing that, realising that, following that path, is to work with our situation right now, right here.
PURE LAND BUDDHISM
Buddhist Art and Amida Raigo Triads - Buddha Amida with two attendants coming down from the Buddhist pure land to receive the dead to enter the pure land. At least superficially, “pure land Buddhism”, which is very popular in Japan, resembles Western ideas of an afterlife. But it’s not really the same.
You may have heard of “Buddhist pure lands”. It’s popular in Japan and you have ideas like that in other traditions as well for instance again in the Tibetan traditions there’s the idea you can be reborn in a pure land.
I don’t know a lot about Japanese pure land Buddhism, but in the Tibetan tradition at least, it means to be reborn in a life where everything you see and are surrounded by inspires you with the teachings of the path to enlightenment, clarity, wisdom, compassion etc.
This doesn’t however mean you have an easy life where you are waited on hand and foot, and don’t have to do anything, and just enjoy pleasurable things for ever. It’s really much more to do with the way you relate to things than your actual surroundings.
You can find pure lands in this very world, on Earth. It’s said that some teachers in the Tibetan tradition see everything as a pure land and all beings as Buddhas. That’s hard to understand looking around this world. How could anyone possibly see all beings as Buddhas? It may not seem to make any sense.
I think this is easiest perhaps to understand by thinking that they are not tied up in time, one of the confusions that can fall away is the strictly linear way we look at time. So perhaps, they see all beings at some time awaken fully, so that’s what they are relating to. But that’s just an approximation to try to understand.
So anyway whatever it means to be reborn in a Buddhist pure land, it doesn’t mean an afterlife either. Not in the Christian sense of a “happy ever after” that you just have to get to and then all your problems are solved.
You are still on the path in a Buddhist pure land, for those who think that way, until you become enlightened.
And whether or not you follow a pure land branch of Buddhism, it is possible to relate to this very life as a pure land in that sense that you are on the path and that everything you encounter, however terrible, however sad, or however blissful and wonderful, carries the message of awakening, compassion, wisdom, and openness. So in this way the ideas of pure land Buddhism have a message for all Buddhist practitioners. You can practice like that as a Therevadhan also.
WHAT ABOUT PARANIRVANA - AFTER BUDDHA DIED DID HE NOT ENTER AN AFTERLIFE?
This is a common misconception in the West, that, ok, Buddha became awakened as a young man. But surely he entered some kind of an afterlife when he died? What else is “paranirvana”? He said that after he died he would never again take rebirth. What is that except a form of afterlife? It’s not just a popular “urban myth”. You even sometimes get Westerners writing learned tomes trying to make sense of this, trying to shoehorn it into Western ideas of an afterlife. They often end up having to say that the Buddhist teachings must have got corrupted in some way, and not present the original teachings of the Buddha because they can’t make their ideas of an afterlife consistent with the sutra teachings as accepted by all the main branches of Buddhism.
So anyway, if you go by the sutras, the recorded teachings of the Buddha, then in the context of the rest of the teachings, when he talked about “paranirvana” - he couldn’t be talking about passage into an afterlife because he taught that there is nowhere else to go. You can’t “get out of here”. Whatever it means, it can’t mean that. He made it abundantly clear that he is teaching us that, in a fundamental way, there is nowhere else to escape to, we have to face our situation here, as it is, and work with it.
According to the Pali Canon, in the The Shorter Instructions to Malunkya (the Cula-Malunkyovada Sutta), Ven. Malunkyaputta asked about what happened when he died. He asked him to say one of these things:
He said to the Buddha (according to this sutra):
"Lord, if the Blessed One … doesn't know or see whether after death a Tathagata exists... does not exist... both exists & does not exist... neither exists nor does not exist,' then, in one who is unknowing & unseeing, the straightforward thing is to admit, 'I don't know. I don't see.'"
He decided that if the Buddha didn’t answer these questions, along with other questions such as whether or not the cosmos is eternal or infinite, he would stop following the path he had set out and return to his ordinary life.
Buddha said to him:
"Malunkyaputta, did I ever say to you, 'Come, Malunkyaputta, live the holy life under me, and I will declare to you that 'The cosmos is eternal,' or 'The cosmos is not eternal,' or 'The cosmos is finite,' or 'The cosmos is infinite,' or 'The soul & the body are the same,' or 'The soul is one thing and the body another,' or 'After death a Tathagata exists,' or 'After death a Tathagata does not exist,' or 'After death a Tathagata both exists & does not exist,' or 'After death a Tathagata neither exists nor does not exist'?"
He also asks Malunkyaputta if he had ever told the Buddha that knowing the answer to these questions was a condition of him following his path.
He said "No, lord."
Buddha replied “Then that being the case, foolish man, who are you to be claiming grievances/making demands of anyone?”
He then went on and gave the analogy of someone shot by an arrow
“"It's just as if a man were wounded with an arrow thickly smeared with poison. His friends & companions, kinsmen & relatives would provide him with a surgeon, and the man would say, 'I won't have this arrow removed until I know whether the man who wounded me was a noble warrior, a brahman, a merchant, or a worker.' He would say, 'I won't have this arrow removed until I know the given name & clan name of the man who wounded me... until I know whether he was tall, medium, or short... until I know whether he was dark, ruddy-brown, or golden-colored... until I know his home village, town, or city... until I know whether the bow with which I was wounded was a long bow or a crossbow... until I know whether the bowstring with which I was wounded was fiber, bamboo threads, sinew, hemp, or bark... until I know whether the shaft with which I was wounded was wild or cultivated... until I know whether the feathers of the shaft with which I was wounded were those of a vulture, a stork, a hawk, a peacock, or another bird... until I know whether the shaft with which I was wounded was bound with the sinew of an ox, a water buffalo, a langur, or a monkey.' He would say, 'I won't have this arrow removed until I know whether the shaft with which I was wounded was that of a common arrow, a curved arrow, a barbed, a calf-toothed, or an oleander arrow.' The man would die and those things would still remain unknown to him.”
"In the same way, if anyone were to say, 'I won't live the holy life under the Blessed One as long as he does not declare to me that 'The cosmos is eternal,'... or that 'After death a Tathagata neither exists nor does not exist,' the man would die and those things would still remain undeclared by the Tathagata.”
So Buddhists in the main sutra traditions never answer that question.
In the Therevadhan schools, the “old school” based on the earliest collection of teachings of the Buddha, the Pali canon, then that’s all they say about what happens to a Buddha after death.
In the Mahayana teachings, especially in the Tibetan tradition again, then there are many stories about what happens to enlightened beings after they die, but no answers about paranirvana either.
The idea is that some Buddhas come back for life after life after they are enlightened. While others enter paranirvana. Generally the “wheel turning Buddhas” who introduce the Buddhist teachings to a world system for the first time, after the teachings have died out (or the first time ever for those teachings in a world system), like the historical Buddha, enter paranirvana after they die. Other Buddhas may return again and again.
Although Therevadhan traditions don’t have stories about Buddhas returning they do have many stories about Buddha in his previous lives as a bodhisattva (someone who devotes their lives to helping others to reach true happiness and the end of suffering) returning again and again. You can follow the bodhisattva path as a Therevadhan just as you do in other traditions; it’s one of many paths a Therevadhan Buddhist can follow.
It’s interesting that even in the Therevadhan traditions they say that not long before Buddha died, he gave strong hints to Ananda that he could choose to remain to the end of this world system. but that he needed to be asked, in order to do that. Ananda didn’t get the hint, until too late. When he finally “got” what the Buddha had been hinting, and asked him, he said it was too late, the process leading to paranirvana was already underway. They don’t go into any detail however about how it was possible for Shakyamuni Buddha to remain to the end of this world system.
Yes of course. Indeed some people are able to be both at once, for instance sister Elaine MacInnes began as a Catholic, became a Zen master but remains a Christian Catholic Nun
Wikipedia has a list ...
(more)Yes of course. Indeed some people are able to be both at once, for instance sister Elaine MacInnes began as a Catholic, became a Zen master but remains a Christian Catholic Nun
Wikipedia has a list of some well known converts between various religions. Here is their list for converts from Buddhism to Christianity.
He says $500,000 but that is just transport cost. Bear in mind that it costs around $10 million to make a spacesuit - and they don’t last for ever. How much does a spacesuit cost? What’s the good b...
(more)He says $500,000 but that is just transport cost. Bear in mind that it costs around $10 million to make a spacesuit - and they don’t last for ever. How much does a spacesuit cost? What’s the good being on Mars without a spacesuit?
NASA’s Released a Prototype of the Spacesuit Astronauts Will Wear on Mars - judging by present day spacesuits then, not including the design costs, expect it to cost around $10 million per astronaut just to make the thing. It’s like a miniature spaceship with lots of parts to be carefully assembled, which takes months for each suit. His $500,000 is just transport and can’t possibly include the cost of a spacesuit or of your habitat on Mars or life support system or consumables.
What about the habitat? What about life support? Life support is not just like an aqualung with an endless supply of oxygen. It’s a complex system with many parts of it that has to remove numerous harmful gases, like hydrogen sulfide, sulfur dioxide etc, keep humidity and temperature, pressure right, scrub carbon dioxide etc. You can never open your window to get a breath of fresh air - “sick building syndrome to the nth degree” without lots of sophisticated equipment. How do you repair all those things things when they go wrong? And you’ve sold your house on Earth but you need a much more expensive house on Mars, with protection from cosmic radiation, ability to hold in ten tons per square meter of atmosphere, is he going to buy free houses for all the colonists on Mars?
And your habitat probably has to be replaced every few decades (to judge by the ISS) and your spacesuit likewise.
The idea that you could sell your house to pay for your transport cost to Mars and somehow survive there is absurd. Remember all the money from the sale of your house has been blown on the transport costs to Mars.
And paying for it all by sale of intellectual property - things you invent while you are on Mars - that’s his only income revenue for Mars colonists. How could that work? You have to pay for intellectual property from Earth, for all of our inventions that you need to survive, and it’s surely going to be a huge imbalance that way.
It’s based on a false analogy with the American settlers. That it’s a habitable place - no it isn’t. Vacuum for an atmosphere, moisture of your lungs would boil so you couldn’t even breathe with an oxygen mask, need full body bodysuit, cold, as in so cold that carbon dioxide (dry ice) freezes out of the air as morning frosts for 100 days of the two year Martian year even in the tropics, dry, okay maybe ice that you can melt out of the ground, but no liquid water except a few thin films of very salty brine, no air to breathe, it’s nothing like settling the US.
Which not only was habitable, it already had inhabitants. Food growing in the ground already. Trees. You could just sleep out of doors if necessary, walk anywhere without a spacesuit. Water to drink. How is that like Mars?
Does he expect them to be able to build log cabins on Mars? Using native timber?
Imagine the driest most inhospitable cold desert on Earth. Elevate it to several times the height of Everest. Remove all oxygen from the air and replace with CO2 which is poisonous to humans above 1% in the atmosphere and is usually a problem gas to get rid of in space habitats. You have some ice in the ground and the ground itself, with its stones and boulders. That’s it. No vegetation. No running water. You can’t breathe the air. Now live there.
That’s still more hospitable than Mars (no global dust storms, Earth’s magnetosphere for extra protection from solar storms, more sunlight because you are closer to the Sun), and if such a place existed, you could get there in hours instead of only getting there every two years in a six months long yourney.
There are lots of other reasons for not colonizing Mars in the near future, and most especially for me, the planetary protection issues.
But economically it’s not going to be something you can do any time soon anyway unless you are a multibillionaire, and even then, questionable. Unless your aim is just to get there and die on Mars.
See also my Ten Reasons NOT To Live On Mars - Great Place To Explore
No, this is a daft idea by an American apocalyptic pastor who has no background in science. It is not remotely dangerous to us. It could blind some of our satellites temporarily. That’s the extent ...
(more)No, this is a daft idea by an American apocalyptic pastor who has no background in science. It is not remotely dangerous to us. It could blind some of our satellites temporarily. That’s the extent of what it can do.
This is what I wrote earlier this year when the “news broke” that he had predicted a devastating gamma ray burst on boxing day 2016. Note, this is a “soft gamma ray repeater” and it’s not the same as the “gamma ray bursts” as usually understood. It sent out one of these soft gamma “bursts” last time on December 27th 2004 when it disabled several satellites temporarily.
Here is my answer from last December when I got many messages from worried people about this story.
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This is all over the youtube Nibiru conspiracy videos right now. They are saying that Pastor Paul Begley has predicted that we are going to be hit by a gamma ray burst on 26th December from SGR 1806-20.
Summary - it is no risk at all to us. This is over 50,000 light years away. We have had a burst before and it did cause glitches with some satellites. But Earth’s atmosphere, equivalent to ten meters thickness of water in radiation shielding, protects us nicely.
The gamma ray bursts can’t be predicted anyway, so this is just a made up prediction and it would be an extraordinary coincidence (though I suppose not impossible) that we get hit on that date. But if we do, it’s not going to harm us.
Artist’s impression of the last gamma ray burst from the magnetar SGR 1806-20 which hit the Earth’s upper atmosphere on December 27 2004
So,
In detail
This star is a Magnetar which means a spinning neutron star with a very strong magnetic field. And yes, there was a star quake on December 27th 2004 on this star. The star quake released more energy in a tenth of a second than the sun would in 100,000 years.
It was far too far away to have serious effects on Earth. About 50,000 light years away. The blast was however strong enough to ionize the Earth’s upper atmosphere and it disabled several satellites temporarily.
This is an artist’s impression of the event:
This is where it is in the sky:
NASA release about the event in 2004: Cosmic Explosion Among the Brightest in Recorded History
Luckily the nearest magnetars are thousands of light years away from us. For more about this type of star, see What are Magnetars?
This is his video
IMPOSSIBILITY OF PREDICTION
Some celestial things can be repeated - pulsars can be predicted, because they repeat on a regular cycle. But astronomers haven’t found any such pattern to these gamma ray bursts.
CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS AND SOLAR STORMS
He links his prediction with the completely different idea of the effects of solar storms on Earth’s magnetic field.
These can blind satellites temporarily, e.g. it could knock out GPS - not damage them permanently, just force them to reboot through temporary glitches in memory. So that’s similar to the effects of a soft gamma ray burst. But solar storms can also cause major fluctuations in the Earth’s magnetic field which causes large currents to flow in long distance cables, such as power transmission cables. This won’t damage your computer or phone - the cables are far too short to be affected by the weak changes in the magnetic field. But the currents induced in cables tens and hundreds of kilometers long could damage the large millions of dollars high voltage transformers. If that happened, it could mean that power is lost for weeks, or months as they are expensive and hard to replace.
The executive order that President Obama signed was to harden transmission lines and to protect them and the satellites against solar storms. This was another story that was way over exaggerated in the media: Debunking: Solar Storms to end all life on Earth
SUMMARY
We can’t predict the next gamma ray burst from a magnetar. Such a burst is of no possible danger to us on Earth, and nor is any other magnetar because they are just too far away. It could blind some satellites temporarily.
We can predict solar storms but only a short while in advance, not days in advance. The effects of a solar storm on satellites are similar. They can also cause power failures, and Obama signed an executive order to find ways to help harden our power cables against them.
A nearby magnetar could damage our ozone layer like a supernova explosion, but there aren’t any close enough to do that. The nearest ones are thousands of light years away.
This is a copy of my Debunked: Pastor Paul Bagley predicts that Magnetar SGR 1806-20 is going to send a gamma ray blast on 26th December which will be devastating to Earth
No. You may be thinking about the leaked email to Hillary Clinton? This was an email to her, not from her, and one of thousands of emails she received. It’s not too surprising that someone in her p...
(more)No. You may be thinking about the leaked email to Hillary Clinton? This was an email to her, not from her, and one of thousands of emails she received. It’s not too surprising that someone in her position would receive an email from someone about “Nibiru”. The idea is utter BS and nuts and I’m sure she wouldn’t take it seriously for a moment, nor would President Obama.
We also get a lot of “fake news” about Nibiru, e.g. fake news that the Pope or Putin or - name any famous figure, add the word Nibiru and you end up with a fake news story that someone might fall for.
For how we know it's nonsense:
Debunked: Nibiru will hit Earth on [Insert Date here]
And my Nibiru BS tester to check if they know anything about astronomy
Nibiru Bullshit Tester - How to check if they know anything about astronomy
With all the early missions with animals in space, the dogs and chimpanzees, the thing was that we had no idea what the effect of zero gravity would be on a human body. There is no way to simulate ...
(more)With all the early missions with animals in space, the dogs and chimpanzees, the thing was that we had no idea what the effect of zero gravity would be on a human body. There is no way to simulate that on the ground - except for a few seconds at a time. Would a human being even survive for minutes in zero g? How could we know?
Even today we get surprises in zero g experiments. So they tried it with animals first. Imagine how complex spaceflight would be if humans died on exposure to, say, ten minutes of zero g!
Some animals behave in strange ways in zero g. For instance snakes don’t recognize their own bodies.
They also did experiments for brief moments of weightlessness in early versions of the “Vomit comet”. Here they are testing pigeons in microgravity
Full documentary
Here's What Happens When A Pigeon Tries To Fly In Zero Gravity
Summary: Not the governments. They have underground bunkers yes, but for more ordinary reasons not to escape from a nonexistent BS planet. See Debunked: The US government is building vast undergrou...
(more)Summary: Not the governments. They have underground bunkers yes, but for more ordinary reasons not to escape from a nonexistent BS planet. See Debunked: The US government is building vast underground bunkers to escape from Nibiru by Robert Walker on Debunking Doomsday
But it’s true that some rich people are buying space in bunkers, and the CEO of the company markets them as bunkers to escape from Nibiru, so presumably he thinks that’s a message that helps to sell his bunkers. These are ex-military bunkers in East Germany showing that the military there have no use for them. This just shows that wealthy people are not immune to falling prey to BS merchants who find new ways to part them from their wealth.
IN DETAIL
This story is true. Well actually, what they buy is space in a bunker able to hold 80 people to survive for a year. The shelters are in Eastern Germany and were developed by the Russians during the cold war to survive a nuclear war. There are many such shelters in Europe and the States that the government no longer needs. Indeed - that the governments aren’t interested in these shelters surely suggests that they are hardly preparing for a flyby of Nibiru :). Any government that has anyone on their staff who understands basic astronomy will LOL at that idea. And, why would they be selling off surplus underground shelters if they planned to house all the elite in them?
Anyway this is the company: Vivos (underground shelter). They own a Soviet surplus underground shelter site in Rothenstein, East Germany. And certainly intended for the super rich. Here is a view of the inside of one of the bunkers, as done up by Vivos:
Their communal swimming pool
It was originally an underground weapons storage facility for military equipment and munitions built by the Soviets in the cold war. But they had to sell it because it was too close to a main road to store weapons. Billionaire Bunkers: Exclusive Look Inside the World's Largest Planned Doomsday Escape
According to that article in Forbes magazine, it can withstand just about everything including a nuclear bomb falling close by, airplane crash, chemical and biological agents, etc.
A typical chamber is 5 meters wide, 6 meters tall and 85 meters long. It has a total of five kilometers of tunnels if you put them all end to end.
This apparently is a bedroom from the complex
There are three separate nuclear blast and radiation proof vehicle entrances to the shelter, and each entry is blocked by a 40 ton access door fitted with hardened steel rods, and a second set of airtight sealed doors, to protect against biological, chemical and gas.
So yes - if you are super rich (it’s obviously marketed to billionaires and multi millionaires from the photos), you can buy yourself a space in this bunker. And the CEO, Robert Vicino, gets the red top tabloids like the Daily Star to run stories like this: SHOCK CLAIM: Elite preparing for Nibiru apocalypse NEXT YEAR but the rest of us are DOOMED(Express) or Global Elite Preparing For Nibiru Apocalypse In September 2017: ‘But They Don’t Have A Plan For Us, Only For Themselves,’ Claims Vivos CEO Robert Vicino(Inquistr).
He’s got an obvious commercial reason for promoting doomsday fear of Nibiru. It doesn’t at all mean that anyone who knows any astronomy thinks that Nibiru is real.
It means that someone who is selling underground bunkers has managed to persuade the red top tabloids to run a story to promote his company - and that there are some very wealthy people who are scared of Nibiru - if indeed that’s why they buy space in his bunkers.
Wealthy people are just like everyone else, they aren’t necessarily sensible. They may be good at selling things, or may be that they inherited wealth, or got lucky, won the lottery or whatever. It doesn’t mean they understand astronomy and are immune to being peddled bullshit by BS merchants like Vicino. They are just like you or me, except that for one reason or another they happen to be billionaires or multi-millionaires, and there are a lot of billionaires around now.
If that doesn’t convince you, if you are someone who is ready to believe any conspiracy theory that is floated on the web, even one promoted with an obvious commercial reason- ask yourself - why would governments be selling off these bunkers if they needed them for their own elite?
Governments do have underground shelters, in the cold war especially, also even during WWII, you can go and visit Churchill’s underground shelter in London. And the US is still building them and probably others also. But it’s not to protect against Nibiru. It’s still for the same reason as these were built originally, in case of war, mainly nuclear war.
And since the cold war they’ve been selling them off mainly, though they do still build and maintain some. See Debunked: The US government is building vast underground bunkers to escape from Nibiru
So yes, governments do build underground bases. And NO - that does not mean they are preparing for Nibiru! The whole idea of Nibiru is bonkers so for sure no government is going to waste even a moment of thought about it.
And yes, some very wealthy people do apparently buy space in bunkers in East Germany. That doesn’t show that they know anything that anyone else doesn’t. It just means that being wealthy doesn’t make you immune to BS and to being sold lies by people who want some of your wealth.
This is a copy of my: Debunked: Rich people are buying bunkers to escape from Nibiru by Robert Walker on Debunking Doomsday
No. Summary - another doomsday story about Nibiru which shares many of the misconceptions floating around on the internet. He just repeats them and makes no attempt to check if they are true or not.
...
(more)No. Summary - another doomsday story about Nibiru which shares many of the misconceptions floating around on the internet. He just repeats them and makes no attempt to check if they are true or not.
He thinks that the gravitational pull of the Earth is so great that an approaching entire solar system will be diverted into a loop around Earth, and he thinks that a planet approaching from the South would only be visible in a plane flying high above South America (for some reason) and lots of other nonsense things.
There is nothing here to be scared about.
DETAILS
This is yet another Nibiru story, publicized in
The journalists who write these stories clearly don't run them past anyone with any credentials in astronomy or science. Cross them off your list of news sites that provide reliable information on astronomy.
It publicizes the book by David Meade: Planet X - The 2017 Arrival I’ll just cover the part of his book that you can read with “look inside” as there is plenty there to debunk already, and the summary of his ideas in Sun magazine
For instance he says that the Vatican operates the Large Binocular Telescope
For debunking see Debunked: The Vatican built a huge telescope, one of the largest in the world, to track Nibiru
He says that Melissa Huffman’s video is of planet X.
For debunking see Debunked: Melissa Huffman did a video of Planet X
He says that the IRAS satellite spotted Nibiru. See Debunked: The IRAS infrared satellite found Nibiru in 1983
He says that Nibiru is only visible in the infrared spectrum. Brown dwarfs are easy to detect in infrared light, even if they are far from any star because they are warm (at least compared to interstellar space) - but that doesn’t make them invisible in ordinary light. That’s like saying that you are invisible because you are warm.
The darkest brown dwarf would be as bright as Betelgeuse at the distance of Jupiter and easily visible in telescopes way beyond Neptune. For details see Debunked: Nibiru is invisible because it is a brown dwarf or made of dark matter
He says it can’t be seen because it is approaching from the south.
“There is no hiding this incoming solar system any longer! It consists of a dark star, smaller than our sun, which hosts seven orbiting bodies, some smaller than our moon and a couple of them larger than our Earth. The dark star is called “Nemesis” or “Planet X.” The blue planet is called the “Blue Kachina.” The planet that is larger than Earth that is orbiting the dark star is called “Nibiru.” It is also known as “The Planet of the Crossing” and the “Destroyer.” There is another object – some refer to it as “Helion.”
“This system is, of course, not aligned with our solar system’s ecliptic, but is coming to us from an oblique angle and toward our South Pole. This makes observations difficult, unless you’re flying at a high altitude over South America with an excellent camera. As it intertwines and approaches it, will come from our south and loop all the way to the extreme north, then come back south again as it exits our orbital path.”
Overwhelming evidence for the 2017 arrival of Planet X / Nibiru
If a comet say, was approaching us from the south, would mean it is easy to see throughout the southern hemisphere. Indeed if it comes from due south, then you can see it all night every night all year round from the southern hemisphere, so long as there is a clear night. So approaching from south or north makes an object easier to see, not harder to see, so long as you live in the appropriate hemisphere and of course there are large numbers of people in the southern hemisphere :)..
This shows an almost total ignorance of astronomy and suggests he has never paid much attention to the real night sky. There isn't any hidden direction that things can come to us from, not the size of a planet never mind a solar system. The Cheliyabinsk meteorite could appear with no warning but that's because it is only 20 meters in diameter.
He also seems to think that Earth’s gravitational pull is so great that a star with several planets orbiting it approaching Earth would be diverted into a loop — the loop around Earth.
His September alignment is a very rough one, that all the planets are so close to the sun that they are impossible or hard to see. Not one that astronomers would pay much attention to. Not even as a "pretty sight" as you can't see it. And they aren't particularly close. The alignment of the Sun with the Moon is of significance because they cause tides and we get our largest tides at new and full Moon every two weeks, the "spring tides". None of the planets are close enough to cause tides and their alignments are of no significance. For details see: Debunked - an alignment of the visible planets behind the sun on 23rd September 2017 is a sign of the end of the world. by Robert Walker on Debunking Doomsday
Debunked: A planet in a 3600 year orbit can hide behind the sun for years on end
And for the reasons why a planet in such an orbit is impossible anyway see my Debunked: Nibiru will hit Earth on [Insert Date here]
You can be sure if anyone says something like this in all seriousness that they don't have a decent background in science. They don't understand concepts that you would cover already in any decent high school physics / science course. These are ideas that can be explained even to a very young child with an interest in science indeed,
See also my Nibiru Bullshit Tester - How to check if they know anything about astronomy
This is a copy of Debunked: Nibiru will hit or fly past Earth in September (or October or November) 2017 - David Meade’s “prophecy” by Robert Walker on Debunking Doomsday
This is an optional vow you can take. The main reason for the vow not to drink is because drinking alcohol can cause you to lose control and so to break any other vows you might have taken, or gene...
(more)This is an optional vow you can take. The main reason for the vow not to drink is because drinking alcohol can cause you to lose control and so to break any other vows you might have taken, or generally lead to disorderly conduct that may harm yourself or others. You don’t have to take this vow , or indeed any of them.
If you lead a reasonably ethical life - they are just a way of kind of reinforcing that. There’s a kind of extra force to it to have actually taken a vow, and do the same thing as you’d do if you didn’t take the vow. But on the other hand taking the vow and then breaking it wouldn’t be such a cool thing to do.
So, I’ve actually taken all the five precepts myself. Not killing ,stealing, lying, sexual misconduct or intoxicants. And it depends on your preceptor. You can’t just take the vow yourself, without a preceptor to take it from - who in turn received it from someone else back and back to the Buddha or so traditionally they think.
Of course you can just decide not to drink or to reduce the amount you take, but to take it as a Buddhist vow you need a preceptor. Who would explain the vows to you normally in a dharma talk before you take them.
Anyway so some might be more strict than others in how they teach them. I was told that it is okay to take a small amount in conditions where you are expected to. For instance at a wedding, it might be that you need to take a glass of wine just to participate in the happy occasion. That would be acceptable according to my preceptor. As the main thing is not to become inebriated to the extent that you do something to break the other vows, and that’s not too likely to have that effect.
And - there are Buddhist traditions where they actually use alcohol. Not other drugs, but alcohol has had a long connection with humans, and it’s like, there are traditions for working with it, and if used well then it can help with your practice. There actually are “mad yogis” who use alcohol as part of their spiritual practice. But there are also plenty of westerners who hear of this and think “oh great this means I can be drunk all the time and call it a spiritual practice”. But actually to do it as a spiritual practice you have to have a very clear mind and a teacher is probably essential to keep you on track. Far from being easy, it’s actually a practice that needs someone who is very strongly connected to the Buddhist path and very strongly grounded, got their feet firmly on the ground, clay between their toes kind of thing. Then they may be able to do this. And they tend to have short lives too, tend to be a bit reckless, do things that are motivated by a deep wisdom and compassion, so uninhibited that they don’t really think about their own safety.
That’s definitely not a path for everyone.
But a little alcohol, for social reasons, not drink driving, not inebriated to the extent that you start doing things that harm others and yourself without realizing what you are doing - that’s not against the Buddhist teachings at all. Even if you have taken the vow, it depends on the preceptor as how strict it is, as I said, some will say for instance that a bit of alcohol is okay in special occasions where you do it out of compassion because it is helping others to take part e.g. in a wedding ceremony to take part in toasting the happy couple, that sort of thing.
And if you haven’t taken the vow, definitely not.
If you mean humans, the money was a factor but only part of it. Apollo was based on a step by step approach. They took risks, yes, but careful calculated risks and they did shorter then longer trip...
(more)If you mean humans, the money was a factor but only part of it. Apollo was based on a step by step approach. They took risks, yes, but careful calculated risks and they did shorter then longer trips to Earth orbit, then around the Moon and even with Apollo 10 did a test landing all the way to the surface, but not actually landing and returned to Earth, which turned up a problem that would probably have lead to the death of the astronauts if they had landed.
So the main problem with Mars is that there are no more stepping stones between the Moon two days away and Mars, six months away and about two years round trip to get back. Some asteroids are closer, but they are
Anyway - as far as I know they didn’t have plans to visit asteroids. The ideas to build a Stanford Torus in LEO were based on getting materials from the Moon rather than asteroids.
So, what do you do next after the Moon, but before Mars? Nothing really, not any dramatic destination anyway. No destination to excite the public imagination with the political support they had for the Moon and all the different “firsts” they could do on the way to a lunar landing such as first human to see the far side of the Moon, first to leave LEO, first view of Earth from deep space, Earth rise over the Moon, first humans to see an eclipse of the sun by the Earth, first time humans saw the craters of the Moon close up from orbit etc. It would have been a long haul of many uninteresting missions (at least as far as the general public was concerned) before the final mission to Mars, if you wanted to do it safely as for the Moon.
It’s a huge step up from the Moon to Mars. You can only go every 2 years, even now (it may become more flexible eventually using “ballistic transfer”) and certainly back then. You can go to the Moon at any time of the year. You can’t take a “lifeboat” with you to Mars. The lunar missions had some redundancy with the lunar module (apart from Apollo 8) and that saved the lives of the Apollo 13 crew. If they had an Apollo 13 type accident that happened as a mission set out for Mars, they would have to last out for two years before they can get back to Earth again.
Before Apollo, there were early ideas to send humans to the Moon with a big rocket, very quickly. They could have got there years earlier that way. They even had the idea of landing someone there before they had developed the technology to get them back again, and then to keep them supplied by sending missions from Earth with food, air etc until they figured out a way to get them back. With the idea that if they did that they could save a year or two over the time it takes to land the first human on the Moon. Early on, early 1960s era, they were ambitious and thought they could do everything really quickly like that.
But NASA decided on a more cautious step by step approach. And just as well they did. Surely a mission like that would have ended in disaster and tragedy, as they didn’t appreciate how challenging it was going to be to make reliable hardware to go to the Moon without accidents.
Experiences like Apollo 1 and Apollo 13 and indeed the Apollo 10 incident underscored the wisdom of this step by step approach.
So after that - it’s not surprising that they didn’t have much stomach for a mission to Mars and even if someone had written the check for them to do it, I don’t think they’d have done a mission to Mars back then. It’s like the early idea to send a big rocket quickly to the Moon unable to return to Earth - enthusiasts making plans, but not too likely it would be implemented. It’s not that NASA has become more cautious. They always were careful and cautious, back then too, taking huge risks, but careful calculated risks, and rightly so I think. A Mars mission would have been a step too far.
I think it is a good thing that they didn’t actually. Romantic and exciting as a human mission to Mars might be, it also runs the risk of muddying the science of Mars by introducing Earth life, and indeed depending what is there, it could even make present day life on Mars extinct, if it is, for instance, a less evolved early form of life. Given Mars’ history that’s a reasonable hypothesis for what might be there based on what we know so far.
It could also be more highly evolved than Earth life e.g. because of the harsh conditions early on, if it stimulated very rapid evolution, eukaryotes already there 3 billion years ago - those who optimistically search for easily recognizable fossils in Curiosity images are hoping that Mars life is at least 2.5 billion years advanced over Earth life evolutionarily. And there’s the possibility of life on Mars that is harmful to the biosphere of Earth. And - it would not necessarily show up as problems suffered by the human crew. For instance if it was a form of microbe that takes over from some key component of our biosphere or it is just harmful not to humans but to some other animals or plants on Earth, then you wouldn’t notice anything until they got back to Earth, and it got into our biosphere. Maybe even evolved a bit, as microbes can quite quickly, to adapt to some challenge on Earth, then causes a problem.
Back then then they would not have been able to take precautions against such a risk. They just didn’t know enough microbiology, with many advances since then. The precautions for the lunar missions would have done nothing at all to protect Earth. And also as for the Moon probably it wouldn’t have been taken that seriously either - for Apollo 11 the first opportunity for infecting our oceans happening as soon as they opened the hatch when the command module landed in the sea when Apollo 11 returned. They did that because of a problem with the crane meant to lift Apollo 11 out of the sea. Rather than leave the astronauts to get seasick as they fixed the problem, with the world watching also, they decided to airlift divers over and get the crew out - in decontamination garments, but just got out of the module into an open boat with the module door wide open so any dust could get into the ocean. But even without that, and other slips, their precautions were not up to the standards needed to keep microbes out of the Earth’s biosphere, as we now know.
They didn’t know about many of the extremophiles we know about, it was before the archaea were recognized as a separate domain of life (that was in 1977), before the discovery of ultramicrobacteria or about the risks from GTAs, how easily genetic capabilities can be transferred via horizontal gene transfer and many other things. And every Mars Sample Return study so far has used new science to say that we have to increase the level of precuations over the previous ones. First the ultramicrobacteria. Then the GTAs and also the theoretical studies suggesting that it’s theoretically possible to have life with cells only 50 nm in diameter if it has only one biopolymer and no proteins (like “RNA world” life). Nowadays you are required to contain particles even as small as a few tens of nanometers in diameter for a sample return if there is any risk of returning life to Earth that’s non native to Earth.
Luckily the Apollo 11 precautions were not needed. But what if the Moon had had life, and it was hazardous to us? It could be, say, a photosynthetic lifeform that out competed our plankton and was inedible (because of its different biochemistry), maybe didn’t produce oxygen or produced some other chemical that resembles our biochemicals but not exactly and so is poisonous, or any number of ways it could be problematical. Well that would have been it, it would have got into our oceans at that point.
I can imagine that perhaps in the vastness of our universe there are places where there are planets like Earth with intelligent species living on them, and then other planets or moons nearby with life on them also, and the intelligent species when they develop space travel, then bring back life by accident. And perhaps in most of the cases no harm is done, or it is a minor nuisance, like problem species of plants returned from another continent, but in a few cases the life brought back may severely degrade their biosphere and perhaps in a very few cases, especially if done as early as Apollo when their technology isn’t very sophisticated, perhaps they go extinct.
Also now we can explore Mars remotely from Earth, especially once we get broadband communications in the 2020s, we could download a complete 3D multi-gigabyte landscape about our rovers as they travel over Mars dozens of times a day. Then explore those landscapes in 3D, look at nearby rocks right down to microscopic detail.
Later on can do that with humans in orbit around Mars, explore via telepresence. I think that’s far better than humans with present day technology, but they couldn’t have considered that as a possibility back in the 1970s as they didn’t have telepresence technology at all, and the idea of a multigigabyte digital image returned from Mars would have seemed absurd.
For more about that see my OK to Touch Mars? Europa? Enceladus? Or a Tale of Missteps?
Unless you are talking about millions of people, in which case it is possible that Mars might have some advantages, then the Moon. It has plenty of water (we believe) at its poles. The main questio...
(more)Unless you are talking about millions of people, in which case it is possible that Mars might have some advantages, then the Moon. It has plenty of water (we believe) at its poles. The main question to be determined is how easy it is to extract. But it may well be easy. It’s got less gravity which makes it easier to take off again - aerobraking helps with landing but not with take off. It has advantages for landing too as we can do pinpoint landings, while on Mars landings have to have a “landing ellipse” because of the unpredictability of aerobraking meaning you have to have an ellipse kilometers in dimensions that is completely flat, ideally with no boulders or cliffs, to land safely. You can also abort easily back to orbit for the Moon if you spot a problem during the landing, the lunar module could easily carry enough fuel to get back to orbit. A rocket landing on Mars has to refuel before it can take off again.
It has sunlight 24/7 at the poles for most of the year bar a day or two when hidden behind a mountain, and near constant temperature there, and double the amount of sunlight of Mars. Mars has global dust storms that can block out the sun for weeks on end.
The dust on Mars is an unknown, but has perchlorates and probably the more hazardous chlorates and chlorites too. The lunar dust we know can be breathed for a few days without much by way of adverse effects - but what’s more, we can also just turn it to glass, and if you make the region immediately around a base consisting of glass then there is no way that dust can blow in. It would take some precautions as for Mars but just going outside e.g. to repair your base, work with equipment that has to be outside etc would not mean you take in dust whenever you come back in..
We have no idea what level of gravity humans need for health so you can’t say that is an advantage of Mars, at least not at present. It might also depend on the person, age, sex etc. For all we know, lunar gravity could be better for health than full g. We just don’t know yet. Or we might need artificial gravity to stay healthy on both the Moon and Mars.
It has a high vacuum which is an asset for industry - you can make solar panels “in situ” by vacuum deposition in a hard vacuum harder than in any solar cell manufacturing planet on Earth. What’s more, there is nanophase iron throughout the lunar soil and dust so you can convert it to glass quickly with a microwave. There are no dust storms on the Moon, while on Mars they block out the sun for weeks on end.
The Martian carbon dioxide is not an advantage for growing plants. There is CO2 at the lunar poles anyway. But when you are in a space habitat, then CO2 is a problem gas to be removed, not an asset like oxygen. And if you grow your own plants, you produce exactly as much CO2 as the plants need to grow, by breathing. Our atmosphere has only trace amounts of CO2 and that’s all that plants need to grow as they are very efficient at scavenging CO2 out of the atmosphere. Just a few kilograms of CO2 in the ISS atmosphere for instance. If you have to import more food than you grow, then the carbon dioxide will build up. So - even if you have large greenhouses full of plants, you only need a few kilograms of carbon dioxide to get them started, and the people who eat the plants plus decaying wastes or burning waste organics provides all the CO2 they need.
The Moon has many useful metals for construction and industry. The one thing we are unsure about are the Platinum group metals but it has been hit by many iron meteorites and there is evidence that suggests that it may have platinum too.
The lunar lava tube caves, in its light gravity, can potentially be much larger than on Mars. They could be kilometers in diameter and we have evidence from orbit that they are over 100 kilometers long. As large inside as an O’Neil colony - and they would be places that have stable temperatures too, so a natural place to expand into.
Now, I don’t think that either is a good place to colonize right now. Nor making habitats using materials in the asteroid belt. If we ever have the technology that makes it possible to colonize Mars or the Moon then we can also set up those habitats in any desert on Earth and “colonize” those far far more easily. Breathable air apart from anything. Easy access to water just from the air never mind the sea. If you are in a desert and there is sea nearby, and a breathable atmosphere, you have resources beyond the wildest dreams of a “Mars or Moon colonist”. That would be an absolute paradise for them.
So I don’t see us colonizing any of these places for their own sake. Rather has to be some other reason to be there. And the Moon is the most likely place to provide such a reason because it is so close to Earth and also so little gravity.
Mars could provide such a reason too, for scientific study, search for present day life or past life. But that’s done best from orbit rather than on the surface in order to protect it from Earth life. For more about the reasons see my OK to Touch Mars? Europa? Enceladus? Or a Tale of Missteps?
Which leads to the idea also of settling the Martian moons, Deimos and Phobos. I think we need to study them carefully and consider what the impact would be of doing this. But they are as accessible as the Moon in terms of the delta v to get to there and back, though further away, and Deimos may well have lots of water ice though we don’t yet know that for sure. And there would be a reason to be there, to study Mars. But Deimos and Phobos are also interesting in their own right and how much impact would a human base have on such tiny worlds?
The Moon is the obvious place to start our experiments in sending humans to somewhere else other than Earth. Lots of space to try out, huge surface area larger than Africa, our “eighth continent” as it’s been called.
See also my Case For Moon First
MOON FIRST Why Humans on Mars Right Now are Bad for Science.
Yes. Also Ceres, Haumea, Makemake etc. We have lots of stars, lots of asteroids, so why not lots of planets. The IAU definition doesn’t work very well, it really distorts language using the word “d...
(more)Yes. Also Ceres, Haumea, Makemake etc. We have lots of stars, lots of asteroids, so why not lots of planets. The IAU definition doesn’t work very well, it really distorts language using the word “dwarf” to mean something it doesn’t normally mean.
I think Alan Stern’s terminology is much better. He calls a planet that “clears its orbit” an “uber planet” and one that doesn’t, an “unter planet”.
Using this terminology, the IAU says that an uber planet is a planet, and an unter planet is a “dwarf planet” but “not a planet”. I.e. in one sentence they say it is a planet and in the next, that it isn’t.
But it gets much worse than that. The “dwarf planets” don’t have to be smaller than Earth even. According to the IAU definition a “dwarf planet” could be as large as Saturn or Jupiter. And we could find such a planet. The WISE survey only ruled out Saturn sized planets out to 10,000 AU and Jupiter sized ones out to 26,000 au. We could have gas giants that orbit our sun over 1.5 light years away, or over 100,000 au.
So - it is possible that any day we might discover a “Gas giant dwarf planet”.
Here is how.
In this diagram, “planet 9” if it exists (awful name for a planet but we are stuck with it for now) - they estimate mass same as Neptune. If so it just sneaks in as an orbit clearing uber planet. It’s above that diagonal line (the three lines show three possible definitions of an orbit clearing uber planet).
But Earth at the distance of Planet 9 (if it exists) would be a dwarf planet.
Planet 9 also may possibly consist of several planets in resonances rather than just one planet. If so, then some of those might be uber planets and some might be unter planets. We could end up with a group of several objects at the same distance in resonant orbits, all larger than Earth, and only some of them count as planets. Some others might be planets according to one definition and not according to another as the IAU definition doesn’t say which precisely of those three lines to use, or whether to use some other definition of orbit clearing.
But it gets much worse than that as I said. We can have planets orbiting well over a light year from Earth. The Nemesis and Tyche hypotheses were for a small red dwarf or brown dwarf. Those are pretty much ruled out though a very cold brown dwarf way out beyond one light year away is still possible.
But they haven’t ruled out gas giants like Jupiter or Saturn out there. So we could, easily, discover a gas giant too far out to clear its orbit.
If we find such, then according to the IAU definition then - well it would be a gas giant first, surely, if it is the mass of Jupiter. Or if you decide to call it something else, how can you not say it is a “something” giant? It’s nearly as large as a planet can be.
But it’s also a dwarf planet because it can’t clear its orbit at that distance from the Sun.
And it’s also not a planet because according to the IAU, dwarf planets are not planets.
So it is a
Gas giant
Dwarf planet
Non Planet
How can that be right? So our definition is not “future proof”. I think better to fix it right away.
Especially if we are to generalize it to other star systems. We are bound to find systems that have planets that are much closer to the borderline between a planet and a non planet than ours. For instance a simpler example, a Mercury sized object at the distance of Neptune in our solar system would be right on the boundary between a planet and a dwarf planet. It then wouldn’t be such a neat pattern any more.
But eventually - as we get to plot the orbits of gas giants far from their stars - surely we will find distant gas giants that then would be gas giant dwarf planet non planets, if we don’t find them in our solar system.
I think language matters. Obviously it makes no difference to Pluto itself. Or Ceres or Haumea etc. It’s not such a big deal really. But it helps us to think more clearly about these objects.
BTW I think “Planet 9” is a really poor name. It might not be an IAU planet. It might be several planets. It might be Planet 10 if there is another planet closer to us, for instance to explain the “Kuiper cliff” and when did we ever call planets by numbers, e.g. if you said “planet 4” how many would know you mean “Mars”?
But sadly there is no alternative name to it. I can’t call it “planet X” because there are lots of planet X candidates, and even today there are perhaps two other possible candidates not yet ruled out - Tyche (unlikely but not impossible) and the Kuiper cliff candidate and there may well be more ideas to come.
I wrote this up in more detail here.
As the Dalai Lama said, there are mischievous people in all religions. Amongst the Hindus, amongst the Jews, amongst Christians, amongst Buddhists. There are mischievous people in all those religio...
(more)As the Dalai Lama said, there are mischievous people in all religions. Amongst the Hindus, amongst the Jews, amongst Christians, amongst Buddhists. There are mischievous people in all those religions. It’s totally wrong to use the actions of a few mischievous people to characterize everyone in an entire religion. To hear him talk about this in his own words, see the videos in my answer to What are Dalai Lama’s views about Islam?
Just to add, if we could reduce the cost of getting materials, fuel, supplies etc into orbit hugely then we could keep it there. Not just a reduction like the one SpaceX hope to do. But a major red...
(more)Just to add, if we could reduce the cost of getting materials, fuel, supplies etc into orbit hugely then we could keep it there. Not just a reduction like the one SpaceX hope to do. But a major reduction, e.g. the orbital spaceships of JP Aerospace, down to $310 per ton to get material into orbit. Or indeed like Skylon, that would be enough. If it was as easy to send materials into orbit as to send them to another continent, then we could keep the ISS. For that matter we could even return it to Earth to a museum here, or return modules, repair them, and send them up again.
It’s all a matter of the high cost of sending materials into orbit. And that cost increases as the ISS gets older and needs more repairs done to keep it going.
I think there is a chance that we could get a major reduction in costs to orbit - perhaps late 2020s, or 2030s. There I think Skylon is our best bet, with JP Aerospace an outsider, which I happen to think is in with a chance, but not probably on that timeframe, they are taking a very long view and it could take them decades. And there are other ideas too including use of spinning orbital tethers to reduce costs to orbit.
If we were really confident that it could be saved - we could boost it into a higher orbit, where it could stay up for another decade until we have low cost transport to orbit. The problem is that if we just abandon it, then it gets harder to do a controlled re-entry later on, if that huge reduction in costs to orbit doesn’t materialize. And boosting it to a higher orbit is itself an extra expense.
It was the same for Skylab and for MIR. And in the Apollo program a huge amount of hardware was sent to orbit around Earth or to the Moon, and nearly all (except Snoopy which is in an independent orbit around the Sun - and some rocket stages) either ended up on the Moon or back on Earth. And wherever it is, none of all that equipment in the Apollo program is actually functioning in space, and useful any more except the passive reflectors that the Apollo astronauts left on the Moon.
And it’s not just the ISS, but all the space shuttle launches, and the crewed and unmanned supply missions and so on lots of hardware that is just discarded after each flight. That’s the nature of our space explorations to date. Like having to build a new airplane every time you cross an ocean, and it all gets discarded during the flight, falls apart only leaving the crew’s cabin left by the time it reaches the other side of the ocean. So you’ve gathered together a collection of aircraft cabins on the far side of the ocean, as a result of sending dozens of planes across the ocean - but you decide you can’t maintain them any more because they are getting derelict. Like that.
And everyone involved in building the ISS knew this when they did it.
Best in his own words.
From 1 minute in. Word for word transcription of what he said:
“You can’t blame or generalize the whole of Islam. Islam like any other religion, the essence is a message of lov...
(more)Best in his own words.
From 1 minute in. Word for word transcription of what he said:
“You can’t blame or generalize the whole of Islam. Islam like any other religion, the essence is a message of love, forgiveness. The very word Jihad. Ji is struggle, or combat your own destructive emotion. Not harming others. “
“That’s the genuine Islam practitioner. If any Muslim create bloodshed, actually no longer Islam practitioner, sincere practitioner. I’ve heard that. So therefore this is wrong, I think, to generalize Islam, Muslim.”
“Muslim, our spiritual brothers and sisters.”
On 9/11 15 minutes in:
“Terrorist act carried by Muslim. But because of this incident should not generalize whole Muslim is something negative. This totally wrong, unfair. Some mischievous people among all followers of different traditions. Amongst Hindus some mischievous people there. Amongst Jews. Amongst the Christian. Among the Buddhist. Yes there are mischievous people there. Those few mischievous people, use that then generalize the tradition - that’s totally wrong.”
“So since then every occasion some interfaith meeting. I’m Buddhist. I’m non believer about Allah. But I can to forward to different Islam tradition. As you rightly mentioned. According to many of my friends they say. Genuine practitioner of Islam they should not harm other people. Genuine practitioner of Islam must extend love to entire creatures of Allah. And then any person who claim themselves as Muslim but create bloodshed, actually no longer Islam practitioner. And then one time the former chief minister of state he told me, very meaning of Jihad is not harming other, but combat with your own destructive emotion. So all major tradition teach us practice of love, tolerance. So then when follower of different tradition, when destructive emotion of anger, hatred, and all to harming other - then that moment jihad, combat that destructive emotion. So then all major religion, who really practice self discipline. Sometimes not easy. Sometimes destructive intent comes, then must control that. So that’s the meaning of Jihad. So I think people, including many media people, wrong interpretation about Jihad. “
“So, I genuinely respect, admire your tradition. So then that religious harmony, I think India, this country, India is a living example where all major world religion live together. This is not modern India but I think over thousand years. Beside home grown religion. That’s sanksim Jainism, Buddhism, then later Sikhism. Then, very early period Zoroastrianism from ancient Persia, then Christian, Muslim, Jews, all settle here. I always admire in Bombay, Parsee, very small community. Now less than 100,000. But no fear. Millions of Hindus and some Christians, Muslims, very small community [of Parsees] very safe, very peaceful. That’s India”
Actually the opposite. We need to be careful not to introduce Earth life anywhere habitable, because it may well have its own forms of life, which may be of great interest. And even if there is no ...
(more)Actually the opposite. We need to be careful not to introduce Earth life anywhere habitable, because it may well have its own forms of life, which may be of great interest. And even if there is no life there, this is our first chance to find out about Mars, Europa, Enceladus “as is”. If we introduce Earth life there, right away, we never get a chance to look at them without life. It’s robbing us, and also all future civilizations here, of any chance of looking at a planet like Mars, or a moon like Europa or Enceladus, free of Earth life. Those are the top places where Earth life could potentially survive “as is” and also the top ones where Earth life could cause most problems.
I did this series of “fake future news” stories to show why we need to be careful about this.
To dramatize the idea, here are a series of fake newspaper stories in a (hopefully) "alternative future" in which humans accidentally introduce Earth life to Mars, then regret what they did.
This is fiction. I created these fake newspaper stories using this online free newspaper generator. I invented the name of the astrobiology mission specialist using this online fake name generator. I put my name as the “author” because you have to add an author to make it look like the real thing.
(photo shows Artist's impression of a human astronaut on the Mars surface holding Oskar Pernefeldt's proposed International Flag of the Earth )
(Photo is actually of a slope with RSLs from this paper)
(Photo is of nanobes from "New life form may be a great find of the century" (1999), at one time thought to be relic RNA world life here on Earth)
(Photograph is Hubble's photograph of a Global Mars dust storm from 2001 )
Actually, if the Earth life they found was salt loving haloarchaea, they don't seem to produce spores (archaea generally probably don't). Instead they have other ways of coping with desiccation including dwarfing of the cells, protective capsules and probably forming dormant states. That's why the article says "spores and other dormant states".
The Lascaux cave painting photo is by Prof Saxx.
This short story is based on NASA's plan for safe zones - based on finding Mars life easily according to which they would land the humans inside a region which they judge "safe to contaminate" with Earth microbes. Outside of that, not too far away, they'd have a potentially habitable and biologically interesting site for them to explore using sterile rovers, such as one of the sites with Recurring Slope Lineae. So what happens if dust carries microbes from their base to the RSL? That's the basis for this story. My first draft of it had a crash of the human occupied ship, as in Crashes of spacecraft on Mars, but I removed it to keep the storyline as simple as possible.
Why not let those first steps be taken by a telerobot instead, operated by a human in orbit around Mars?
SO WHERE IS THE BEST PLACE FOR EARTH LIFE?
The best places to introduce Earth life right now are places where no life can survive without our help. Such as the possibly vast lunar caves, see my An astronaut gardener on the Moon - summits of sunlight and vast lunar caves in low gravity in MOON FIRST Why Humans on Mars Right Now Are Bad for Science . The moon is the closest and safest place to try this.
Or in free space - if we use the asteroid belt to make large colonies turning slowly for artificial gravity, see my Asteroid Resources Could Create Space Habs For Trillions; Land Area Of A Thousand Earths.
But Earth’s by far the best place for us at least in this solar system. Perhaps our top priority should be to look after life on Earth. If we could apply the ideas suggested for space colonies on Earth, then we could have habitats for many times the Earth’s current population living onfloating sea cities, or habitats in deserts, self enclosed like a space colony so having minimal impact on the rest of the Earth, even, for instance, bringing water to deserts that have recently been denuded by human activities. I cover those in What about Earth deserts? and Seasteading in my MOON FIRST Why Humans on Mars Right Now Are Bad for Science.
There’s much we can do in space too. Exploration, knowledge, satellites orbiting Earth are already of great value and we are likely to find many more ways that space activities can help us. Move some of our heavy industry into space. Perhaps solar power from space, mining metals there. There might be many ways that space could be useful to help Earth. And a place for holidays, hotels, research, recreation. I think it’s such early days yet and who knows what we’ll do in space. But in our solar system at least, Earth remains by far the most habitable place for humans. As Carl Sagan said in in Pale Blue Dot:
"The Earth is the only world known, so far, to harbor life. There is nowhere else, at least in the near future, to which our species could migrate. Visit, yes. Settle, not yet. Like it or not, for the moment, the Earth is where we make our stand."
Though we have learnt much since then and we now think there is a chance of some life on Mars, and a good chance also of life in the oceans of Europa and Enceladus, still, the situation hasn’t changed significantly since he wrote that as far as the habitability of Earth and the rest of the solar system.
Despite all the hype about Mars, it’s not a patch on Earth as a place for humans to live. And even the worst disaster that could happen to Earth would not make it even remotely as uninhabitable as Mars would be even after trillions upon trillions of dollars spent to try to “fix it up” to make it a bit more habitable. See Earth best for a "backup"
For more about this see my online and kindle book:
The online version, free to read, is here: OK to Touch Mars? Europa? Enceladus? Or a Tale of Missteps?
It’s 838 pages all in one online page, with lots of graphics so give it plenty of time to load.
You can also get it on kindle here: OK to Touch Mars?: Or a Tale of Missteps?, Robert Walker - Amazon.com
This answer consists mainly of the chapter Prestige or dishonour, first footsteps on Mars from the book.
See also my
I don’t know, but there’s quite an art to using a metronome. If you just play along with it, then you can hear it most clearly if you are out of time with it at least slightly. Could that be it? Th...
(more)I don’t know, but there’s quite an art to using a metronome. If you just play along with it, then you can hear it most clearly if you are out of time with it at least slightly. Could that be it? That it’s frustrating because you want to play in time with it but are aware that you aren’t and can’t seem to do anything about it?
You can deal with that by learning to listen out for the merge sound when you are in time with the metronome, rather than trying to hear the metronome as distinct from your playing. And there are many other ways to work with the metronome in creative ways to help your internal sense of rhythm and precise timing.
You might be interested in my free online book The Vanishing Metronome Click - Burying the Click (also available on kindle).
We only have one sun. It’s easy to check for yourself. Go out any sunny day. Block out the sun with your finger. Look above, below, to left and to right. Do you see a second sun? You have just disp...
(more)We only have one sun. It’s easy to check for yourself. Go out any sunny day. Block out the sun with your finger. Look above, below, to left and to right. Do you see a second sun? You have just disproved the idea that we have two suns.
This video shows what it would be like if we had two suns (or three suns in this case)
See also: What it would be like if we really had two suns (or three in this case)
Robert Walker's answer to Will Nibiru end the world in October 2017?
If you want to know about Tibetan Buddhism as the Tibetans understand it, then he is one of the best qualified people there are. Quoting from his bibliography: “At 23, His Holiness sat for his fina...
(more)If you want to know about Tibetan Buddhism as the Tibetans understand it, then he is one of the best qualified people there are. Quoting from his bibliography: “At 23, His Holiness sat for his final examination in Lhasa’s Jokhang Temple, during the annual Monlam (prayer) Festival in 1959. He passed with honors and was awarded the Geshe Lharampa degree, the highest-level degree, equivalent to a doctorate of Buddhist philosophy. “.
Indeed, by 23 he already showed himself to be unusually gifted academically impressing everyone there by his erudite questions and answers in his exam.
It’s actually more demanding than a doctorate. It requires typically around 15 years of intensive study, at least. Geshe Lharampa - Rigpa Wiki (in the video below it says 20 or 30 years typically)
Actually there is a short video here about the examination of the Dalai Lama, when he passed the Geshe Lharumpa degree. As the Dalai Lama, in old Tibet, he had to pass the examination not just once, but four times, in four separate monasteries. The exam is a bit like a viva but rather more dynamic, more like a debate, with many questions back and forth where he has to show his thorough understanding of the material. Unusually they think the ability to ask questions is as important as answering them so the candidate is expected to ask challenging questions of their examiner, and they are assessed not just on how well they answer questions but on how challenging their own questions are as well.
The exam lasted ten hours and he was examined by 50 of the most learned Lamas in Tibet.
Note the commentary of this video, when it gets to Buddhist ideas, has some Western misconceptions. E.g. Buddhists don’t have the idea of an afterlife in the Western sense. There’s the idea of rebirth into very fortunate states sometimes called “god realms” where everything is wonderful, but eventually on very long time scales you die. Tibetan Buddhists also have the idea of an intermediate state between death and rebirth called the Bardo which can last for several weeks (Therevadhans don’t have this). Tibetan Buddhists, like the Japanese also have the idea of rebirth into a “pure land”, a world in which everything has the inspiration of enlightenment, perhaps the closest (again Therevadans don’t have this). But there is nothing directly corresponding to the Western idea of an “afterlife”.
There are very few Westerners who have achieved this qualification. Georges Dreyfus achieved it in 1985, being the first Westerner to achieve it.
The Dalai Lama is also one of the very few Tibetan teachers to be a lineage holder in all four of the Tibetan branches of Buddhism. These are very different from each other. Most Tibetan teachers will specialize in only one or other of them, or sometimes in two of them. So, he is not only expert in the Gelugpa but also the Kagyu, Sakya and Nyingmapa branches of Tibetan Buddhism. He also understands them not only academically. He also practices the meditations of the different schools and has the transmissions of many practices in all the schools.
So - he’s got the academic background of a Tibetan Buddhist practitioner and also the background in meditation too, and has that in all four main schools of Tibetan Buddhism. Some academics just have the academic understanding and don’t have the experience of using their understanding in meditation and daily life practice. Some practitioners may have a very deep understanding of Buddhist practice, and meditation, but not have an academic understanding. He has both.
So those are his qualifications.
As well as that, for his entire adult life since he has left Tibet and even while in Tibet he has been in constant dialogue with scientists, with religious teachers of many different religions, and so on. He has become fluent with many scientific and philosophical ideas used in the West.
The one thing he doesn’t seem to be so good at for some reason is languages (other than Tibetan of course), or at least, his English is still not that great. He can convey the ideas fine but his grammar is still a bit “broken English”, sometimes he has to ask for a translation into Tibetan of some word when asked a question, and he has a strong Tibetan accent. Other Tibetan teachers have picked up English much faster than he did.
Part of it must be that Tibetan is very different from English. It’s not like e.g. learning German or Norwegian if you speak English. But his English is far better now. A decade or two ago, he used to give public talks in Tibetan with a translator, had audience questions translated into Tibetan, and his English was quite hard to follow when he occasionally spoke in English. Now he normally teaches English speaking audiences in English, fields the questions directly and only has to ask for a translation occasionally. He has also written many books in English now.
His understanding of Tibetan Buddhism, and of the Tibetan language is far better than a guy with a PhD from Stanford is likely to have. Even the best Buddhist scholars in the West generally agree that they don’t have the intimate understanding of the vast scriptures in Pali and Tibetan of the scholars who were brought up in those traditions. They miss some of the subtleties of the language, and they haven’t been able to read all of the sutras, or the commentaries for that matter, in the detail needed to have such an in depth understanding of them as the most learned Buddhist scholars have. It’s sort of a bit like the way that no Western go players can challenge the top Japanese masters. The top Western go champions will get beaten by the top Japanese masters in every single game they play.
Part of the problem is that the Buddhist scriptures (sutras) are just so vast. The Pali Canon is like an encyclopedia, it’s like learning the whole of the Encyclopedia Britannica or something. Far vaster than the Bible. The Tibetan sutras are even vaster than that. And then on top of that they have many commentaries too, written over the years. It’s like poetry. It’s not that hard to get a gist of poetry in another language apparently. And you can enjoy the sound of the words even if you don’t speak the language. But you have to be very fluent indeed to get all the subtlety of a poem in the same way that a native speaker does. So - the sutras in Pali for Therevadhan teachers - and in Sanskrit and then many texts in other languages like Tibetan for the Mahayana teachers - they have a similar subtlety of language to poetry. Like Milton or Keats or Shakespeare or Blake. For a Westerner to get this level of understanding of the Tibetan sutras and the vast literature of the commentaries on them - that is like, say a Japanese speaker, who learnt English as a second language, and who first encountered English as an adult, trying to become an expert on Milton, Keats, Blake etc. Not easy.
The Dalai Lama has this intimate understanding of the Tibetan sutras. Also of the Tibetan language. The Buddhist teachings are integrated into the Tibetan language to such an extent that you need to understand many subtleties of Tibetan Buddhism to properly understand Tibetan.
So, if you are interested in Tibetan Buddhism, and want to hear about it from someone who has an expert understanding of the teachings, you can’t find a much better source than the Dalai Lama. He isn’t the only one. There are several other teachers as expert in Tibetan Buddhism as he is. Also there are many ways of teaching it. If you get a special interest in Tibetan Buddhism, you may well find another teacher who presents it in a way that connects to you more directly for some reason as we all connect in different ways. But it’s generally agreed, I think, that he is one of the top experts on it.
Also, just to add. You don’t need this level of understanding of the sutras to meditate or practice as a Buddhist. Indeed you can do so with only minimal instructions. According to the Pali canon, some of the Buddha’s early disciples got the central point of his teaching before they had even met him, with just a couple of phrases that they were told by hearsay by others who had been to hear him speak and relayed what he had said.
As another example of this sort of thing, in the stories of the lives of the Indian Mahasiddhas again some of them became awakened as a result of following what seem such simple instructions, just a few words, with great dedication. Sometimes in these stories, they meet their main teacher just once, and then practice with great dedication, some instruction that he or she gave them, practicing it for many years, so simple you wonder how it could have so much in it.
But Buddhism has always been a very academic religion, along with at the same time, great simplicity of practice. Some people need only a few words. Some need pages and pages and need to study for decades. And the Dalai Lama has the understanding of those vast teachings for those who need to know about Tibetan Buddhism academically, as well as the background in meditation for the simplicity of practice where needed. So he often says things that seem very simple too. Indeed often you might not realize how erudite he is because of this two aspected nature of the way Buddhist teachers teach. If something can be said simply to whoever is asking the question, they won’t obfuscate it by making it more complex than it needs to be.
Well it’s kind of complicated. First, for the stars you can see with the naked eye. The ones that look red are cooler, and the ones that look blue are hotter. Indeed you can figure out their temper...
(more)Well it’s kind of complicated. First, for the stars you can see with the naked eye. The ones that look red are cooler, and the ones that look blue are hotter. Indeed you can figure out their temperature approximately just by noticing their colour.
The main colours of stars which you notice with the naked eye are red, white or blue.
It’s for the same reason that as you heat metal it goes red hot, then orange, then yellow, then white hot, then finally a bluish white in colour. Same happens to stars. BTW as you heat up a piece of metal, it never goes green. You’d think it would go through all the colours of the rainbow, but it misses out green. Same is true for stars. There are red, orange, yellow, white and blue stars. But no green stars. For the reasons, see Why are there no green stars? - Bad Astronomy. In fact our own star is as close to green as a star can get. But it looks white.
Note our Sun doesn’t actually look yellow, that’s just an artistic convention, for instance in Japan children paint the sun red for a similar reason, the Japanese convention is that the sun is red. For explanation of that, see my comment below
So, a red star will probably be a very cool star. But it’s just the outside that has to be cool. A star may be much hotter inside than outside.
There are two main kinds of stars that are cool outside. First, a star like our sun, when it runs out of hydrogen (which our sun is burning to helium), starts helium burning. Helium burns much hotter than hydrogen - which rather paradoxically, causes the star to expand and its surface to cool down. It’s got helium burning hotly in its core, but it’s got hydrogen outside still - and the helium burns so much hotter than hydrogen that the whole thing gets much much larger. So large that when that happens to our sun, the surface of the sun will stretch as far as Earth’s orbit.
This shows how much larger our sun will become as a red giant, compared to what it looks like now.
Note, though our sun is often shown as yellow in diagrams, and eclipse filters and such like often tinge it yellow or orange, and though astronomers even call it a yellow dwarf, our sun is actually a white “yellow dwarf” rather than yellow.
Our sun is that tiny dot at bottom left of the picture. As a red giant it will be so big, that our Earth would skim through the Sun’s very tenuous outer atmosphere if it stayed in its present orbit, and wouldn’t last long. However our sun will also shed a lot of mass in the beautiful “planetary nebulae” as it becomes red giant. So Earth will probably orbit a fair bit further out and may escape getting incinerated.
All this is billions of years into the future. Our sun is still very young for this kind of star and will stay in its stable middle aged phase for hundreds of millions of years, hardly changing at all, and it will be billions of years before it goes red giant.
Earth will be far too hot for life by then, unless of course, there’s some civilization that puts up lots of sun shades in space to cool it - or perhaps - moves it further out. This is billions of years into the future. So probably many intelligent species, not just civilizations, have come and gone since then - or if we are so lucky as to be still around by then, continuing as a technological civilization, our civilization surely is very advanced and could do almost anything.
Anyway - so some of the brightest stars in our sky like Betelgeuse are red giants. They are actually a long way away, because they are so bright. Though their surface temperature is low, not much hotter than an oven, they are so very large that they are also very bright as seen from a distance. So we can see them a long way away. Betelgeuse, top left shoulder of Orion, 642.5 light years away, is one example. Aldebaran is another, an orange giant, 65.3 light years away.
However other stars start off cool, and stay cool, just because they are so small. They burn hydrogen like our sun, but they are nowhere near as big as our sun. Those are the Red dwarf - Wikipedia stars. The closest red dwarf star is Proxima Centauri
“Relative sizes of young stars from the smallest “red dwarfs”, weighing in at about 0.1 solar masses, through low mass “yellow dwarfs” such as the Sun, to massive “blue dwarf” stars weighing eight times more than the Sun, as well as the 300 solar mass star named R136a1″
Again our Sun is shown as yellow, as so often in these diagrams. It’s actually white.
So the red dwarf stars are very red, but as you can imagine, being far smaller even than our sun (which is a so called “yellow dwarf”) and also being cooler, they are not easy to see. Indeed none are visible to naked eye. The nearest ones are still so faint that you need telescopes to see them at all. Fifty of the sixty nearest stars to us are red dwarfs.
So, even though they are by far the most numerous star in our galaxy, or indeed in the universe as far as we know, they are so faint that not a single red dwarf is visible to the naked eye from Earth.
Amongst the brightest stars are the blue-white super giants. They are young stars that are also huge. The bluish white Deneb is one of them, and though it’s quite a bright star, it’s one of the more luminous of the visible stars. It’s shining at us from a distance of around 2,600 light years. List of most luminous stars. So some of the bluest stars you can see with the naked eye are also very distant, thousands of light years away. You can’t really tell much about how far away a star is from its colour unless you know a bit more about it, not for the ones visible to naked eye.
You are probably thinking about the red shift. That though only applies to very distant galaxies. Or stars receding from us at great speed within our galaxy. There are some very fast moving stars, so fast that they are noticeably red shifted.
So, the red shift doesn’t actually have to make a star redder. It shifts all the light towards the red. But that means it also shifts ultraviolet light into the visible area of the spectrum. So that will become blue.
It’s true that the most distant stars, galaxies and quasars (bright cores of very active galaxies) are moving away from us at great speed because of the expansion of the universe, and they do tend to be redder.
The red dot in the middle of this photograph is a very distant quasar, ULAS J1120+0641. First to be discovered with a red shift of more than 7. And yes it does look very red.
However, that would be a very inaccurate way of testing for the differences. How would you tell the difference between a red giant, and a blue giant that’s moving away from you at a great speed? Or a galaxy that just happens to be redder, or bluer than another one? For instance our galaxy has lots of young stars, and the brightest young stars tend to be blue, so it looks bluer than an elliptical galaxy with lots of old stars in it and not many star forming regions.
The way we notice the red shift is instead because of shifts of lines in the spectrum. These lines are caused by various atoms such as Helium, Hydrogen etc that capture photons and absorb light of particular frequencies preferentially.
This shows the simulated shift of the lines for BAS 11, a super cluster of more than twenty clusters of galaxies, a billion light years away called BAS 11. Left chart shows the sun, right chart shows the distant galaxy. For more about it see Red shift of a distant super cluster of galaxies
No, I wouldn’t take a seat if they paid me a billion dollars, not on that timetable.
As it happens I’m also a bit claustrophobic, on the other hand I did try the Apollo 11 simulation on the HT Vie a...
(more)No, I wouldn’t take a seat if they paid me a billion dollars, not on that timetable.
As it happens I’m also a bit claustrophobic, on the other hand I did try the Apollo 11 simulation on the HT Vie and I didn’t feel claustrophobic as long as I had that tiny window with the vast view outside. So if it had windows, then I might be able to handle the claustrophobia. But probably wouldn’t pass the tests for claustrophobia where you have to sit locked up in a bag with no windows / light. I don’t know.
But that’s not the reason. I just don’t think it is safe - not in the very same year that they launch the first Dragon 2 unmanned, next mission is a Dragon 2 manned, then in the same year the Falcon Heavy first launch, then finally Falcon Heavy + Dragon 2 + life support not tested for more than a few hours probably in space.
And all that with a company that has had one of its rockets explode each year for the last two years and has had issues with quality control - though they say they have fixed those - is everything fixed? And with my rocket and spaceship made by people who often do 80 hour working weeks, and sometimes have done unsafe things like stand on parts they shouldn’t - and also they keep tweaking the design, like a software project.
I’d also be concerned about their practice of loading the fuel after the crew, necessary because of the design of the rocket. That’s never been done before on a crewed spacecraft, and their last rocket that did this blew up in the middle of the refueling sequence. Fixed that but again might there be another way it could happen which they haven’t spotted yet? You’d be sitting in the rocket waiting while they load the fuel knowing that if something went wrong the rocket could explode and (if everything went right) you’d be propelled away from it in their escape system hoping it works as expected.
And if something went wrong with the life support on the way to the Moon, say a gradual carbon dioxide build up, we’d all be dead by the end of the mission and nobody on Earth could do anything to help except give us advice. Again with their less than stellar record on quality control I’d wonder, how well checked is the life support system? It’s been tested on the ground and worked, and by then, tested in space on shorter missions, but - is it the same in space, and what about all the components, is every single one going to work flawlessly, what if some component not quite up to full spec has somehow got through their tests?
I’m not that much of a risk taker anyway. I’d never do base jumping. I think that nobody should fly into space if they aren’t at least willing to do base jumping (even if they don’t try it) - you need that kind of a temperament / cool head / acceptance of risk. So far though they have flown tourists to the ISS, you couldn’t really say that even the Soyuz TMA is safer than base jumping, except, that you only do it once normally while base jumping you’d do over and over.
I think I might just be able to fly on the Soyuz TMA. If I could manage the claustrophobia and if it only flew to the ISS. It would be a small risk but not a huge one as these things go for a once in a lifetime thing like that. It would be like doing base jumping just once as a one off thing in your entire life. If it was important enough for some reason, and I was really well prepared, perhaps I’d do it. But I might find the ISS claustrophobic and spend all my time in the Cupola :).
But not on a SpaceX rocket. No way. Not until it is far better tested than now.
BTW I’d have some similar issues with the SLS, especially if they do their first crewed mission around the Moon on the very first launch of the SLS. Even with the second. I’d not have the same concerns about e.g. part inspection / quality control. They wouldn’t be relying on clever uses of low cost components to replace the higher cost ones traditionally used, as SpaceX do. But big programs like that did lead to the Space Shuttle which crashed twice. So - how reliable would it be? Okay for test pilots who assess such risks and work with them all their life - and they won’t be sending commercial passengers on the SLS. I’m not saying they shouldn’t do it, but I wouldn’t fly on it even if you paid me a billion dollars again. Just not my kind of thing :). I wouldn’t fly on Apollo 11 either, assuming that I qualified as a test pilot etc which obviously someone like me wouldn’t. Only very few people have those kinds of capabilities / temperament.
But I wonder if the SpaceX passengers are cool headed risk takers who are okay with rather high levels of personal physical risk, like test pilots? Also there’s a meta thing there too. If they all die on the journey - probably everyone would criticize SpaceX for doing too much too soon. They are gambling a lot therefore on it succeeding - if nobody dies on that first mission they will get a lot of praise for it, and then fly again and again, but maybe quite soon they do get that accident with everyone dying and everyone turns against them and says “why didn’t you foresee that?” Even though Elon Musk has been quite upfront about it, that everyone could die. But it actually happening in reality is different from him saying it could happen. We are used to movies like Star Trek where time after time the heroes and heroines will be told they risk all dying, and then at the last second they find a way to survive. But real life isn’t like that.
So I wonder a bit how realistic the space enthusiasts are who are so keen on this sort of thing - have they really thought it through to that possible future as an actuality - where they all die as for the two Space Shuttle missions? It would be especially devastating if two of the crew are passengers who paid to fly to the Moon somehow. Ordinary folk who aren’t test pilots. When the Virgin Galactic test pilot died it was very sad. However it was easier to take somehow as that is someone who has decided as a job to do this very dangerous thing of test piloting spacecraft.
On the plus side the FAA will have to approve it which may help but then of course they also passed the Space Shuttle…
So no, not for me. See also my answer to Does SpaceX have the capability to send people around the moon?
It’s hard to say. We have
It’s hard to say. We have
Tiny tunnels in Mars rock hint at life’s traces - the main yellow feature is a fracture and the tiny tunnels that might be bored by microbes are those minute features within the two boxes. The Nakhla meteorite has organics associated with it but unfortunately it seems to be contamination from water from Egypt that penetrated to quite a depth, just a small amount, was a witnessed fall, picked up within days, but they did get buried in the Egyptian soil by the fall, and somehow some water must have got near it, and that may have been enough to contaminate it enough with Earth organics to make it impossible to tell what it had originally.
They measured the organics 2–3 cms below the fusion crust and the calculated that 65 ml of pore water infiltrating into the meteorite would have been enough to contaminate it with the levels they detected, which matched mixes of amino acids from the same conditions in Egypt. Mixed in with non terrestrial organics which were probably in the meteorite before it reached Earth.
But it’s a case of extraordinary results needing extraordinary evidence. It might be that later on we look back on them from a future when we understand Mars better and say they all have traces of life in them. Or we might say that none of them have. Right now, nobody can say. We have no way to find out for sure right now, not that anyone has discovered to date anyway.
But it hasn’t been disproved. The ALH84001 has some structures far too small for present day life, and some have concluded from that that it can’t be life. But there are various ways they could be life, including, that they are some very early form of RNA world life or something else when the cells were much smaller. That’s actually quite likely for a meteorite from very early Mars, which is what ALH84001 is, date of formation rather than date of leaving Mars for Earth.
And though everything can be explained without life, the life hypothesis I think is the one that is most natural still, and requires less special pleading. That is, if you can accept that early life on Mars could have such tiny cells which is the main difficulty with it, but in other ways perhaps what makes them most interesting, if they are life.
So I think you just have to say the jury is still out on that one.
Generally - if not so much hung on it and if you were asked “Is this life or non life” to give your best guess, without all the background that these are meteorites from Mars, I get the impression that at least some astrobiologists might say - “probably at least one of them is”. Especially if e.g. we had evidence that life is very common in our galaxy, that almost every planet has life on it, and also that life is very robust normally, able to survive in a wide range of conditions - then it would make a lot of sense to guess that it is probably life. Because Mars started off very habitable, and if life is common, Mars probably started off with life, and if that is right, and if life typically is as robust as Earth life, it probably had life almost everywhere, and so is likely to have had life in these meteorites.
And if you could get that far in the reasoning, that the meteorites are likely to have life in them - and we have what seem to be signs of life, and we expect signs of life in them - then these may be the signs of life we were expecting.
But it is so easy to be fooled by things that resemble life and are not, and so far we don’t have any good evidence to make it seem likely that Mars does have life - past or present - so you’d be very foolish to say that with any confidence right now. So just have to see what happens.
I think the chances of the SpaceX mission around the Moon going ahead on schedule in 2018 is tiny. But on the remote chance it does, I would not fly on that mission, if you paid me a billion dollar...
(more)I think the chances of the SpaceX mission around the Moon going ahead on schedule in 2018 is tiny. But on the remote chance it does, I would not fly on that mission, if you paid me a billion dollars. The problem is that they have to rely on many innovations working just right that are hardly tested. Their current Dragon spacecraft is only rated for re-entry from LEO (Low Earth Orbit) and not for the much faster re-entry from a trip around the Moon. That’s why they plan to use the larger Dragon 2 which has its first flight in 2018. If we go by Elon Musk’s suggested timeline, this flight around the Moon would probably be its second crewed flight, and third flight ever.
They need a new rocket to launch it as well. They plan to use the block 5 Falcon 9 “full thrust” to launch the first unmanned Dragon 2 to the ISS as well as their first crewed flight to the ISS. But this version of the Falcon 9, which hasn’t flown yet, is not going to be powerful enough to launch a Dragon 2 around the Moon. So they have to depend on the Falcon Heavy to launch their second crewed mission, which is another rocket that they hope will fly for the first time in late 2017.
So, going by his sketched out timeline, it’s probably also going to be the first flight of a Dragon 2 on a Falcon Heavy, and one of the early Falcon Heavy flights, at most one year after its first launch. And then they send it around the Moon! With no possibility to abort once they leave low Earth orbit.
For SpaceX fans, just to say, I'm quite critical in this article but it has an up beat ending. It's not my aim to discourage SpaceX in their human spaceflight ambitions :). Rather the aim is to encourage them to do it safely. They can do that while at the same time continuing to make a profit with every launch. That's the beauty of their approach.
SpaceX Dragon 2 which will fly for the first time in 2018. This spaceship is a major upgrade from the existing Dragon with a thick enough aeroshell to handle the much higher speed of re-entry into the Earth’s atmosphere from the Moon with plenty of margin to spare
The existing Dragon is over-engineered, so its heatshield could withstand a re-entry from the Moon, but it's not rated for that.
Their unmanned rockets have blown up once each year for the last two years (Sept 1, 2016 and June 28, 2015). It was for a different reason reason each time, and they fixed the problems. If one of the early flights of the Falcon Heavy blows up, then that will delay things a lot and surely lead to questions of passenger safety for this mission.
They also load the fuel after the astronauts are on board - an unusual procedure never done before with passengers. This is a concern that was raised by Thomas Stafford, a former NASA astronaut and retired Air Force general, and other veterans of NASA's Gemini, Apollo and space shuttle programs. The rocket can explode while the fuel is being loaded, as happened to one of their rockets last year (the explosion on Sept 1, 2016), where the rocket exploded as a result of a tank buckling as the ful, creating voids where liquid oxygen could pool.
Thomas Stafford, former commander of Apollo 10, who has concerns about SpaceX's policy of loading the fuel after the astronauts.
If the fuel is loaded before the passengers, you have eliminated one major potential risk. However, this is an essential part of their rocket design because they use fuel that has to be kept very cold (to increase its density for higher performance). They can’t keep the fuel this cold for long after it is loaded. This makes it impossible to load the fuel hours in advance before the crew.
SpaceX have a launch escape system that should let passengers escape if the rocket explodes on the launchpad with them on board. It is triggered automatically in the case of an explosion like that - but it is itself one more thing that could go wrong, and so far has never been tested with humans on board, just once with dummies. If the first crewed flight to the ISS blows up, even if the crew survive in the escape capsule, that would surely again lead to questions of passenger safety and delay things, as launch escape systems are meant as a final backup and not expected to be triggered.
But if nothing happens during the unmanned missions, it doesn't show that the rocket is safe. As Richard Feynman wrote about the Challenger disaster:
"The argument that the same risk was flown before without failure is often accepted as an argument for the safety of accepting it again. Because of this, obvious weaknesses are accepted again and again, sometimes without a sufficiently serious attempt to remedy them..."
In this case, loading the fuel after the passengers is potentially a risky approach, and perhaps his remark is therefore relevant to it. Even if they get several launches without incident using this procedure, it doesn't prove that it is now safe. It’s surely something that they need to keep a careful eye on.
They are also depending on a life support system working for a week in space which has only ever been tested for that long on the ground. There have been many problems with the ISS life support in zero g that never showed up in ground testing. And there is no way to abort the mission back to Earth. This is the worst thing about it for me. If they have an Apollo 13 style failure of life support on the way out, then they will have to make do with whatever they have in their spaceship to try to fix it. And Apollo 13 had the lunar module as a “lifeboat” which they won’t have.
The environment control and life support is one of the most complex systems on a spacecraft anyway, and there have been concerns raised about their working methods, see Doug Messier’s review for a perspective on it. Also, the June 28, 2015 failure was due to a fault strut, which failed at 2,000 lbs force though rated to 10,000 lbs force. They have stopped using that strut and added additional quality controls.
So it’s not impossible that a vital part of their life support system fails in some way. If the carbon dioxide scrubbers stop working, for instance, the carbon dioxide build up would kill the crew on those time scales. Apollo 13 were able to use the attached lunar module as a “lifeboat”, but they will have no lifeboat.
There is no problem with life support going wrong in LEO, not minor things like the CO₂ scrubbers not working, as you can just abort back to Earth within a few hours of noticing the problem. But on this mission it could easily be several days before you can return. Such a tragedy would unfold very slowly. And there would be absolutely nothing that anyone on Earth could do except give them advice.
Wayne Hale, former manager of the Space Shuttle Program is quoted by Space.com as saying:
"Even with today's technology, it's still an extraordinarily difficult, extraordinarily dangerous task to undertake, period — I don't care who you are,"
Here is a fictional "future fake news" story to dramatize it, and maybe help it seem more real, as something that actually happen I created it using this online free newspaper generator, with my name as the “author” to make it look like the real thing.
I happen to think that many who are now -saying "good for SpaceX, go for it, rush to the Moon in 2018" may well be saying "Why didn't you go more slowly and do more testing" if they do send humans around the Moon in 2018 and all seven die of carbon dioxide poisoning or whatever. Due to some flaw they'd have noticed and fixed if they'd done a 2 week flight in LEO first.
If they do this, I wouldn’t fly on it if you paid me a billion dollars for the ride. But I expect it will be delayed and delayed, as happens so often with SpaceX.
Also the FAA will need to approve it for safety, and it doesn’t seem very safe, to do this so soon, at least, not as they have outlined it. I don’t think it is “bluffing” but it is hugely optimistic, that they will be able to achieve so many ground breaking innovations so quickly, and that nothing will go wrong with any of them, and that they will all be completed on timetable and finally all be passed by the FAA as safe for flight by the end of 2018. They often claim that they will be able to do things many years before they actually do. For instance they claimed the Falcon Heavy would be ready some years ago (first they said 2011, then late 2013 to 2014) and it is still not ready.
The Trump administration are also planning a somewhat similarly risky mission - pushing back the first humans to use the Space Launch System (SLS) to the maiden flight of their rocket, with a journey around the Moon. See Gerard Black’s Human flight around the Moon: a worthy goal, but using the wrong vehicles. That’s not a fun ride by paying tourists, but an early flight with test pilots on board. These are people doing a job they know is risky and which they have chosen as a career, testing spaceships. However this also is risky, and it could be a personal disaster for the astronauts of course, and a huge set back for NASA’s human spaceflight plans if that first flight is a disaster and they all die.
TIMELINE FOR SAFER HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT
Timing is everything. This is the fast timeline SpaceX suggest:
I think that is far too fast and unsafe, as many commentators have also said. Instead, why not be ambitious and aim for a superb safety record? Something like this:
Remember that SpaceX earn good dollars for every one of those missions. There is no empty hardware flying into space. I think this will put them in a much stronger position, lead to safer human flight and it gets further in the end, even if it seems a little slower, to start with. Of course it could easily be that this slower timetable is what would actually happen anyway.
It’s certainly possible to have reasonably safe human spaceflight. The Russian Soyuz flies several times a year, and hasn’t had a fatal accident since Soyuz 11 in 1971. Their launch escape system has only been used once, for mission 45 in 1983, which is also the only time to date that a launch escape vehicle has been used in any mission with crew on board. Everyone survived. They are now on mission 132. That makes it 111 missions in a row so far without a fatality and only minor issues since 1983.s. With a somewhat slower approach, but still progressive and exciting, hopefully SpaceX can achieve a safety record approaching that of the Soyuz.
I say this as someone who is keen on humans returning to the Moon. But - humans safely on the Moon!
See also my answer to What are your opinions on the SpaceX ‘tourist flight around-the-Moon’ in 2018? This also has more details and cites for the various facts and figures here.
Also see my longer blog post on Science20: Why I Wouldn't Fly With SpaceX To The Moon As Soon As 2018 - If They Paid Me A Billion Dollars
Other critical articles about their mission:
I don’t think it is anything to do with that. Just their “Smart filter approved content”. This seems to remove just about all comment notifications and auto hides most comments on your posts so tha...
(more)I don’t think it is anything to do with that. Just their “Smart filter approved content”. This seems to remove just about all comment notifications and auto hides most comments on your posts so that they appear under “other” instead of under featured. You have to upvote them to move them to featured, so that by default most people don’t see comments on your answer.
It’s a good idea to deal with trolling and spam I suppose - but I can’t remember when I last got a troll comment on my answers on Quora. Not sure if I have ever.
I didn’t know what was happening for a while, just seemed to suddenly stop gettign any comment notifications and I assumed that for some reason nobody was commenting on my answers any more. Then I discovered this change. To put it back to the way it was go to:
https://www.quora.com/settings/n...
Then make sure Comments are switched on and select “Notify Me About: Everything”. And upvote any non spam / non trolling comments on your answers if you want everyone to see them easily.
To anyone who has commented on my answers - if you did it a few weeks ago - I probably didn’t get any notification of your comments. Please try again, just comment on your comment or message me.
I don’t think it’s a bug. Just their “Smart filter approved content”. This seems to remove just about all comment notifications and auto hides most comments on your posts so that they appear under ...
(more)I don’t think it’s a bug. Just their “Smart filter approved content”. This seems to remove just about all comment notifications and auto hides most comments on your posts so that they appear under “other” instead of under featured. You have to upvote them to move them to featured, so that by default most people don’t see comments on your answer.
It’s a good idea to deal with trolling and spam I suppose - but I can’t remember when I last got a troll comment on my answers on Quora. Not sure if I have ever.
I didn’t know what was happening for a while, just seemed to suddenly stop gettign any comment notifications and I assumed that for some reason nobody was commenting on my answers any more. Then I discovered this change. To put it back to the way it was go to:
https://www.quora.com/settings/n...
Then make sure Comments are switched on and select “Notify Me About: Everything”. And upvote any non spam / non trolling comments on your answers if you want everyone to see them easily.
To anyone who has commented on my answers - if you did it a few weeks ago - I probably didn’t get any notification of your comments. Please try again, just comment on your comment or message me.
I expect it’s just their “Smart filter approved content”. This seems to remove just about all comment notifications and auto hides most comments on your posts so that they appear under “other” inst...
(more)I expect it’s just their “Smart filter approved content”. This seems to remove just about all comment notifications and auto hides most comments on your posts so that they appear under “other” instead of under featured. You have to upvote them to move them to featured, so that by default most people don’t see comments on your answer.
It’s a good idea to deal with trolling and spam I suppose - but I can’t remember when I last got a troll comment on my answers on Quora. Not sure if I have ever.
I didn’t know what was happening for a while, just seemed to suddenly stop gettign any comment notifications and I assumed that for some reason nobody was commenting on my answers any more. Then I discovered this change. To put it back to the way it was go to:
https://www.quora.com/settings/n...
Then make sure Comments are switched on and select “Notify Me About: Everything”. And upvote any non spam / non trolling comments on your answers if you want everyone to see them easily.
To anyone who has commented on my answers - if you did it a few weeks ago - I probably didn’t get any notification of your comments. Please try again, just comment on your comment or message me.
I think it’s just their “Smart filter approved content”. This seems to remove just about all comment notifications and auto hides most comments on your posts so that they appear under “other” inste...
(more)I think it’s just their “Smart filter approved content”. This seems to remove just about all comment notifications and auto hides most comments on your posts so that they appear under “other” instead of under featured. You have to upvote them to move them to featured, so that by default most people don’t see comments on your answer.
It’s a good idea to deal with trolling and spam I suppose - but I can’t remember when I last got a troll comment on my answers on Quora. Not sure if I have ever.
I didn’t know what was happening for a while, just seemed to suddenly stop gettign any comment notifications and I assumed that for some reason nobody was commenting on my answers any more. Then I discovered this change. To put it back to the way it was go to:
https://www.quora.com/settings/n...
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His Holiness the Dalai Lama used to be a political leader of Tibet when he was in Tibet but left as a young age. He was leader of the “government in exile” but has resigned all his political roles ...
(more)His Holiness the Dalai Lama used to be a political leader of Tibet when he was in Tibet but left as a young age. He was leader of the “government in exile” but has resigned all his political roles and responsibilities now. He continues as a spiritual leader. However, there are many different Tibetan spiritual leaders. Also the four schools of Tibetan Buddhism all have heads of the school, though for Nyingmapa school this was a new role that was created in exile for administrative purposes as it didn’t have a single head of the school in Tibet. There is nobody with a role corresponding to the Christian Pope in Tibetan Buddhism.
The head of the Gelugpa school is Ganden Tripa
His Holiness The Dalai Lama (left) and Ganden Tripa (right)
The head of the Karmapa school is Ogyen Drodul Trinley Dorje, the seventeenth Karmapa
Ogyen Drodul Trinley Dorje on the right, with the Dalai Lama The Official Website of the 17th Karmapa
The head of the Sakya school is Sakya Trizin
Sakya Trizin, head of the Sakya school, on the left
The Nyingmapa school didn’t have a head in Tibet and the position of the “Supreme Head” of the Nyingmapas was established in exile for administrative purposes. Nyingma. I haven’t found out who the current supreme head is.
The previous one from 2012 until he died in 2015 is Taklung Tsetrul Rinpoche
The oldest spiritual tradition in Tibet is the Bon tradition They say that their founder is “Buddha Shenrab. He is said to have been born in the mythical land of Olmo Lung Ring, whose exact location remains something of a mystery. “ They say that their teachings date back to a Buddha who lived before Buddha Shakyamuni. The Dalai Lama has “stressed the importance of preserving the Bön tradition, as representing the indigenous source of Tibetan culture, and acknowledging the major role it has had in shaping Tibet's unique identity.”
There are only a few Bon remaining outside of Tibet, though it had more than three hundred monasteries in Tibet before the Chinese invasion. Their senior teacher is Tenzin Namdak Rinpoche - Tibetan Bön
Tenzin Namdak Rinpoche, senior teacher of the Bon religion in exile, with his Holiness the Dalai Lama
None of these are leaders in the sense of a Pope.
Since the Dalai Lamas follow a line of reincarnation then there’s always a gap between the death of the previous Dalai Lama and the coming of age of the next Dalai Lama, as he has to take birth and then grow up to adulthood.
Traditionally the Dalai Lama is linked with the Panchen Lama. The Panchen Lamas help train the young Dalai Lamas and the Dalai Lamas help train the young Panchen Lamas. Panchen Lama
But the Panchen Lama chosen by our current Dalai Lama and his delegation in Tibet disappeared from public view aged six. This is him as he was soon before he disappeared:
He was taken into custody by the Chinese aged 6, allegedly to protect him, along with his parents, making him the world’s youngest political prisoner at the time. He should now be 27 (as of spring 2017). The Chinese say that he is in good health and happy, but have not let anyone confirm that he is alive and well, and he has now been missing for over 21 years, in this sense that the Chinese have not permitted any contact with anyone even to confirm that he is still alive.
At the time that he disappeared, the Chinese chose their own version of the Panchen Lama which the Dalai Lama doesn’t recognize.
When the Dalai Lama dies, we don’t know what happens next. Normally the Dalai Lama would leave instructions to help find his successor.
But our current Dalai Lama has said that he doesn’t know yet if he will do this. If he does, he says he will not take rebirth in China. I think that is understandable considering what happened to the Panchen Lama.
A Dalai Lama of course gives his instructions to help find his successor before he dies, and so, before his successor is born and indeed before he is conceived. Also his successor will typically have no connection at all with the previous Dalai Lama - the current Dalai Lama was a son of a small subsistence farmer in a remote hamlet in Tibet. This system only makes sense really if you believe in reincarnation and the ability of the Dalai Lama to direct his next rebirth.
He may be our last Dalai Lama. That doesn’t mean that it is his last re-incarnation. It means that we would no longer have a system in place to locate Dalai Lamas. There would no longer be anyone who is either identified by anyone else as the Dalai Lama, or self identifies as the Dalai Lama.
But Tibetan Buddhism will continue just fine.
Just to say, this answer is phrased in such a way that you can’t expect anyone to answer it who thinks that something may happen after death. But of course many people are of the view that a lot ha...
(more)Just to say, this answer is phrased in such a way that you can’t expect anyone to answer it who thinks that something may happen after death. But of course many people are of the view that a lot happens after you die, including many scientists. Some are sure, some keep an open mind. For a more neutrally stated but similar question see Is there life after death?
And actually there is a way of reasoning that turns your question on its head. If you imagine that nothing happens after you die - what happens to your life as it is now? If after you die, there is no you who experienced it, then surely from your point of view, it is as if it never happened at that point. There is no you to have any view on the matter indeed.
So how can it be happening now?
That can be an interesting argument to ponder over, may get a few people thinking a bit about it.
And science certainly doesn’t prove that nothing happens after you die. There are many scientists with a very wide range of views on this matter and they don’t find any conflict with science. We just aren’t at the stage in science where we can apply it to questions like this in a meaningful way. We can prove of course that our bodies decompose after we die. We can study that whole process of decomposition too, find out what happens to the atoms and materials of which our body is made. But nobody denies that, surely. And science can’t do any more than that at present.
For more on this see my answer to Is there life after death?
Well, first, his life starts as a young boy in a remote farming village of a few dozen houses, who mainly survived on subsistence farming. The place hadn’t been farmed for long because of its unpre...
(more)Well, first, his life starts as a young boy in a remote farming village of a few dozen houses, who mainly survived on subsistence farming. The place hadn’t been farmed for long because of its unpredictable weather. They mostly grew barley, buckwheat and potatoes
He was not born to a rich and powerful family. It’s a system we don’t have anywhere else, where there is no connection by birth, genetics or anything we would recognize with previous Dalai Lamas. The Tibetans think he has a connection through reincarnation with the previous Dalai Lama. Which doesn’t mean at all that he is the “same person” any more than you are the same person as you were as a child of 2. Indeed different Dalai Lamas have had very different characters, likes and interests.
He was recognized as the Dalai Lama at the very young age of two. You can read the story here: The Office of His Holiness The Dalai Lama
He was brought up in Lhasa. He was expected to become a monk, like all the previous Dalai Lamas except the sixth, who never took his monk’s vows and lead a very different lifestyle.
But this current Dalai Lama turned out to have a keen interest in Buddhist teachings. He has mastered all the teachings of the four main schools of Tibetan Buddhism - which is rather unusual. Most Buddhist teachers in Tibet only master the teachings of one or two of the schools. You need a very flexible mind to be able to follow them all.
He took his examination as Geshe as a young man (this requires many years of study), and everyone was impressed by his erudition. This involved answering questions fired at him in quick succession and his interrogators were amazed at how well he fielded them. So he can be regarded as an authority on Tibetan Buddhism, as someone who has studied it thoroughly and has a very deep knowledge of it.
He is not a Pope. We don’t have leaders like that in Buddhism. The Buddha when he died made it clear that we shouldn’t take on anyone else as a leader since then. So when he is asked to lay down the law about what Buddhists in Tibet should or should not do - that’s based on a misunderstanding. He just can’t do that. He’s not a spiritual leader in that sense at all. He can talk about his own understanding of the teachings, and suggest things to think about. When it comes to specific recommendations like suggestions of what to do in a particular situation - well Buddhists would ask their personal teacher for advice, and in the end, the decision is one you make yourself. Your teacher if he or she advises you on something is doing it as a way to waken up your own internal wisdom. In the end in the Buddhist teachings, we are totally responsible for the things we do, and the idea is to develop our own understanding of situations.
With that background, it’s just not possible for any Buddhist leader, if he follows the guidelines of the Buddhist sutras, to make proclamations of the type a Pope can do. Some “rogue Buddhists” may ignore this, for instance some Westerners who claim they are Buddhist and also some traditional Buddhists too who follow a rogue path like that. They are only human, and we have issues like this in all religions and also in those who don’t follow any religion at all. But if so they are going against the teachings of the Buddha himself. These are very extensive, and recorded in many sutras. Indeed it’s like an entire encyclopedia of teachings. And all the way through they stress this point, that you are responsible for yourself, that you need to develop your own understanding and wisdom - based on listening to those you consider wise, but not just Buddhists either, all sources of wisdom.
Anyway the Dalai Lama certainly follows that guideline and though he is often asked to make proclamations about what Buddhists in Tibet or elsewhere should or should not do, he always refuses to do so. Which often leads to frustration and claims that he is being deceitful by people who think of him as being a kind of a Pope. “Why won’t he denounce x y z or make clearer statements about what Tibetans should or should not do?” But he never has been such a figure. That’s not his role. He would be going against some of the central teachings of Buddhism if he were to try to take such a stance - and he would be rightly ignored too if he did.
He had a political role in Tibet, as a political leader of the country. He has now resigned from this role. His spiritual role is more of an inspiration. He teaches as any Buddhist teacher does, expounding his understanding of the Buddhist teachings on compassion, wisdom, meditation and so on. He is regarded widely as one of the top experts in Tibetan Buddhism by Tibetan Buddhists. This is not because of his birth as a Dalai Lama but because he has engaged in scholarly study and thoroughly understood the material, and also engaged in many meditation practices and thoroughly mastered those as well, and is an acknowledged line of transmission of many practices in Tibetan Buddhism in all four schools.
As well as that, many Tibetan Buddhist see him as “Avelokiteshvara” the “deity of compassion”. This is also much misunderstood by Westerners. It doesn’t mean he is a deity in our sense at all. Doesn’t mean he has special powers or special understanding. It just means that they see him as embodying compassion, a deep and extensive compassion, that’s open to suffering of all beings everywhere, not just to particular people. And this compassion is one that any of us can find in ourselves. So it’s not exclusive. They will say also of someone else. If you do something compassionate, then you are Avelokiteshvara too in that moment of compassion. There can be many “embodiments of compassion” in this sense. And the reason it is treated as a “deity” is not that it’s some external being other than us in the Western sens of a God. Rather - it’s because this kind of open unending compassion is something that it’s hard to see as something we are already. When first encountered, it seems external in the sense that it is other than what we normally think of ourselves as being. It’s vaster than anything we think is possible. So - it’s external to our ordinary way of thinking about ourself. So it seems like a deity - like something way beyond us. But the Buddhist teaching on compassion is that it’s actually our true nature indeed if we can but see it. First as glimpses, moments of compassion, but eventually our whole life can be an embodiment of compassion, everything we do is rooted in compassion.
So, the Dalai Lama is thought by many Tibetans to have some kind of a blessing of compassion associated with him. It doesn’t mean that he does extraordinary acts of compassion all the time in any obvious sense at least. But that he somehow has an inspiration of compassion through his life as a whole. It’s like many other figures who we may think of as being inspiring for their compassion, and inspire others towards compassion too from their example.
And according to their ideas of reincarnation this is something that has been transmitted through reincarnation from one Dalai Lama to the next right through to the present day. Not the only person with this blessing though. Many have this blessing. Including many who belong to other religions or none, who show acts of compassion. They also have this “blessing of Avelokiteshvara” shining through in their acts of compassion. Not some kind of strange deity with four arms - that’s just one particular iconography in some branches of Buddhism. That’s like a visual poem that for some with the right connection inspires compassion when they think about it. But - true compassion which can take many forms, and be expressed in poetry and images in many ways.
For many Tibetan Buddhists then the Dalai Lama is one of these expressions of compassion.
As for his reputation in the West, well he has had many discussions with scientists and others world wide. And many have been impressed by his erudition, understanding, and indeed the messages from the Buddhist teachings. He helps to show how the Buddhist teachings actually can work in our modern world - that they aren’t archaic. He has a keen interest in science particularly and has had many discussions with scientists on these topics.
And he is of course keen to do something to help with the plight of Tibetans in China. He is a moderate there. He no longer thinks that the way forward is for Tibet to break free from China. He thinks that the way forward is a Tibet as part of China with autonomy for such matters as education, prisons, management of the ecology and so on. He is also interested in communism, not in the sense of Maoism but in the more general sense. It’s complementary to Buddhism which can be followed in many different political systems and the Dalai Lama has a particular interest in communism, as well as in democracy and many other approaches - not in an exclusive sense but from what he’s said on the topic, I think he is interested in how a communist Buddhist country can develop.
The Chinese I think, if they were to engage more with him, more in dialog, try to understand better, would hardly find a better person to act as an intermediary to help lead Tibet to a future that is mutually beneficial for both Tibet and China.
I wish I could be more positive as someone who is very keen on humans in space, and to the Moon especially. But if you paid me a billion dollars I wouldn’t fly on that flight. The announcement from...
(more)I wish I could be more positive as someone who is very keen on humans in space, and to the Moon especially. But if you paid me a billion dollars I wouldn’t fly on that flight. The announcement from SpaceX says that they will do it after human crewed spaceflights to the ISS - so it’s not going to be their first manned flight. So, it would depend on how many of those flights they do first.
“Once operational Crew Dragon missions are underway for NASA, SpaceX will launch the private mission on a journey to circumnavigate the moon and return to Earth.”
SpaceX to Send Privately Crewed Dragon Spacecraft Beyond the Moon Next Year
But according to this report, it’s very soon, first crewed flight to the ISS in the second quarter of 2018, and then flight around the Moon later that year SpaceX to fly two tourists around Moon in 2018 - BBC News
And he says that the mission is risky himself - as quoted on the BBC site, the passengers
"are entering this with their eyes open, knowing that there is some risk here. They're certainly not naive, and we'll do everything we can to minimise that risk, but it's not zero."
There are many issues with SpaceX for human spaceflight and with this mission particularly..
Then there are some concerns about their working methods. These criticisms are by Doug Messier, managing director of Parabolic Arc. in his article Are SpaceX’s 60 to 80 Hour Work Weeks Really Such a Good Idea? It's obviously one person's point of view on the matter but I think it deserves some attention.
Also their rockets have exploded each year for the last two years (Sept 1, 2016 and June 28, 2015). Surely they should have a few years of non exploding rockets before they send paying passengers, at least of whatever type of rocket they send the passengers on - and without continually changing the passenger rocket design during that period?
Elon Musk gave more details about his timeline here:
“Musk replied that SpaceX hopes to launch the first uncrewed Dragon 2 test flight to the ISS by the end of this year on the firm’s Falcon 9 rocket – almost identical to the rocket that just launched on Feb. 19 from pad 39A.
“That would be followed by crewed launch to the ISS around mid-2018 and the private Moonshot by the end of 2018.
“’The timeline is we expect to launch a human rated Dragon 2 on Falcon 9 by the end of this year, but without people on board just for the test flight to the space station’ Musk told Universe Today.”
“’Then about 6 months later we would fly with a NASA crew to the space station on Falcon 9/Dragon 2.’”
“And then about 6 months after that, assuming the schedule holds by end of next year, is when we would do the lunar orbit mission.””
The Falcon 9 Full Thrust can transfer only 8.3 tons to GTO and 4.02 tons to Mars (delta v 3.4 km/sec, similar to the delta v of LEO to translunar orbit of 3.1 km / sec) so it seems to be beyond its capability to send a Dragon 2 at 6.4 tons plus crew and supplies to Trans Lunar Injection.
This report suggests the Falcon 9 can now send 9.15 tons to GTO. But a 10% increase in performance is not enough, it needs more than a 50% increase in performance just to send the dry weight of the Dragon 2 to TLI without the crew or supplies.
So, it seems likely that they will use the Falcon Heavy. If so, it will be one of the first few flights of the Falcon Heavy, which is yet to launch, and the first ever crewed launch on the Falcon Heavy.
The re-entry speed from a spaceship returning from the Moon is also much higher than for re-entry from LEO. For instance Apollo 8, a similar mission, had a re-entry speed of 24,696 mph or about 11.04 km / sec. By comparison typical LEO re-entry speeds are around 17,000 mph or about 7.6 km / sec
Apollo 8 reentry, December 27, 1968 photographed from a US air Force KC-135A flown at 40,000 ft altitude
The Dragon heat-shield is not rated for a return from the Moon. So they have to fly the Dragon 2, which hasn’t flown yet. It will have a heat shield rated for this, but it has a dry mass (without crew or payload) of 6.4 tons and its heat shield is of course not yet tested.
In a little more detail then on the Dragon, then Garrett Reisman in a statement before the House of Representatives in February 2015 wrote:
"Designed in partnership with NASA and fabricated by SpaceX, Crew Dragon’s heat shield is made of PICA-X, a high-performance improvement on NASA’s original phenolic impregnated carbon ablator (PICA). PICA-X is designed to withstand heat rates from a lunar return mission, which far exceed the requirements for a low-Earth orbit mission"
The SpaceX website says about the Dragon 2:
"Dragon v2 represents a leap forward in spacecraft technology from its Version 1 predecessor. Additional upgrades include a SpaceX-designed and built ISS docking adapter, impact attenuating landing legs, and a more advanced version of the PICA-X (Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator-X) heat shield for improved durability and performance. Dragon v2’s robust thermal protection system is capable of lunar missions, in addition to flights to and from Earth orbit."
They will probably have trained crew as well as the passengers, though this is not confirmed. The Dragon 2 has seven crew so with two paying, they could have five experienced astronauts. But I think there is a high risk of an explosion with them all dying on launch, or the life support failing and them all dying on the way to the Moon or on the way back.
Crewed Dragon Pad Abort Test in 2015. Elon Musk says it would have saved the crew in the event of the 2016 launch pad explosion, but it’s one more thing to go wrong and not yet tested with crew on board. Also the life support will have to support the crew on a mission of several days. never tested that long in space before, and only used for the first time earlier that year in a mission to the ISS. Though they can abort at launch or from LEO, there will be no chance at all of abort back to Earth from the far side of the Moon, or once they leave Earth, if something seriously goes wrong.
I just think they are nowhere near ready for human spaceflight at all, and to send an early test flight with humans aboard around the Moon so several days away from any chance to abort back to Earth... And to make that a flight with paying passengers...
The main issue with a loop around the Moon is that you are so much further away from rescue. Just 1% of CO₂ in the atmosphere is enough to be hazardous to humans and it doesn't take that much mass of CO₂ in a small spaceship to reach hazardous levels. That was the main issue for the Apollo 13 astronauts. They would have all died of carbon dioxide poisoning long before they could get back to Earth, if they hadn't found a way to improvise a CO₂ scrubber.
So, for their first long term test in space of its life support - they do it with the crew going around the Moon! The life support system of a spacecraft is very complex. And the company concerned has had some previous issues with quality control of their components.
In general any issue that happens slowly over a period of hours or days is more hazardous in a multi-day mission. Another example of a problem of that nature would be a breach of the spacecraft hull, or damage of essential equipment through a micrometeorite or space debris. Or a failure of a part that works just fine for a few hours but then it fails, if it is a part that’s essential to life support.
It's different with test pilots. The Apollo crew were trained test pilots and jet fighter pilots, used to taking high risks. They knew what they were doing, and if they all died, as happened with Apollo 1- that's very different from an Apollo 1 disaster with paying customers aboard, or an Apollo 13 type disaster that doesn't have a happy ending, again with paying customers. With Apollo they sent the first astronaut who was not a test pilot only on Apollo 17. Also Apollo did a step by step approach which turned up many problems that needed to be fixed.
There's bound to be an element of risk in space flight. But the attitude so far of the US, Russia and China has been to reduce that risk as much as possible, on the basis that it is hard enough anyway. They all use a much slower step by step approach as a way to reduce risk.
China for instance has sent several taikonauts to LEO, and has actually built a space laboratory there as well, the Tiangong 2 (meant for testing, not a permanent space station).
But it doesn't have any plans in the near future to send its astronauts to go around the Moon. They do have a heavy lift vehicle, the Long March 5, successfully launched in August 2016, capable of sending 8 tons on a lunar transfer orbit, similar in capacity to the Delta IV heavy.
Back in the 1960s, NASA could have built a big rocket and sent the astronauts to the Moon at an early stage, before Apollo 8. They could have attempted a landing on the Moon even, at a very early stage. As soon as they had the Saturn V, they knew how to do it in theory, and could have got something together that might have worked, but the technology wasn’t tested yet. They would have had a small chance of beating the Russians by a huge margin, but almost certainly everyone would have died.
They showed the value of the step by step approach as they turned up numerous problems at every stage of the process which would have surely doomed the entire crew if they hadn’t done this approach (right up to Apollo 10 which did everything Apollo 11 did except land and turned up a problem that would have doomed the crew if they had tried to land).
And even with that careful step by step approach, they had all the crew die in the Apollo 1 explosion before they fully understood issues with oxygen atmospheres, and Apollo 13 came close to disaster and was only saved because of the lunar module which they could use as a “lifeboat” to supplement the systems in the command module.
Now of course the Apollo and Gemini programs had to test many things we don't need to test. At the beginning they didn't know even if humans could survive a few hours of zero g (hence all the monkey tests). So I'm not suggesting that SpaceX has to redo all the stages of Gemini or even Apollo.
Rather I'm just making the general point that a step by step approach is what saved Apollo from what could have been far worse disasters. There are many steps they had to do which we can skip. But this is just too few steps too quickly in my view.
SpaceX are planning to progress much faster than that, to do their best to minimize the risk and then go ahead with spectacular but dangerous programs. With that approach I think we are bound to get Space Shuttle type SpaceX accidents, probably sooner rather than later.
The risk must surely be far higher than for the Space Shuttle. And surely it's more dangerous than Virgin Galactic who are at least doing many tests with test pilots first before sending the first passenger on a sub orbital hop. And of course Virgin Galactic also had one of their test pilots die in an accident. They aren’t attempting anything as dangerous and spectacular as this. Virgin Galactic sneaks in just one more SpaceShipTwo glide test to cap off 2016
We can do simulations of these missions in software - but that didn't stop the Virgin Galactic crash, or the SpaceX several explosions and failures. Our spacecraft are also much more complex than in the Apollo era - and a simulation is only good as far as it accurately matches what you built and launched. And simulations always involve approximations and sometimes those turn out to be significant and it leaves out something the authors of the software thought didn't matter which leads to a crash.
WILL THE PASSENGERS UNDERSTAND THE RISKS? WHAT ABOUT THEIR RELATIVES, COLLEAGUES AND FRIENDS?
SpaceX are honest about the risks - but I don't know if their paying passengers will really evaluate that properly. They are bound to have agreements to sign but that doesn't mean they truly understand it.
They may treat it more like a scary fairground ride. Or, they may treat it like a Star Trek movie. The crew keep running huge risks, and at just the last second or minute they find a solution. But this is reality, not fiction. Yes, Apollo 13 found a solution, it could almost have been a movie script the way it worked out. But the two Space Shuttle crew didn’t even know that they were about to die, and a new Apollo 13 could easily not have the same happy ending.
Also, the risk may well be much higher than they think. I wouldn't be surprised if it is as high as 25%?? If they do it as quickly as planned. Of course there are far too many intangibles to evaluate properly with a never tested spacecraft.
Also, if the Falcon Heavy doesn’t crash and the Dragon 2 works fine too, with two successful tests of each one first (say) - two successful launches don’t mean that a spacecraft is safe. If it has a 50/50 chance of failure with each launch, you could have two successful launches in a row with a probability of 25%.
The problem isn't so much, probabilities that they can predict. but the unknown, the mistakes, the flawed component, the failure of integration of something properly, the life support critical component, the onboard fire or explosion etc etc. So much has to go exactly right in the first ever manned mission after only one unmanned mission test. And they have a track record of things often going wrong, pushing the envelope and taking huge risks and gambling on them succeeding.
So, yes, this really could happen. It's not like Star Trek or a scary fairground ride.
ISSUES WITH VIRGIN GALACTIC AND SLS AS WELL
I have issues with Virgin Galactic too. They are following a slower more responsible approach to the testing, but they are somewhat playing down the risks and encouraging celebrities to fly with them who have no history of doing risky things like base jumping and can’t possibly really truly evaluate the risks, seems to me. Even with a VG suborbital hop, I think the risk will surely be higher than for the Space Shuttle and a lot higher than for the Soyuz missions to the ISS. Unless they do many tests before they fly. The big problem is the high cost of each test. If planes cost so much to fly each time, and could only be tested a few times before the first paying passengers go on board, then it would be just as hard to make a safe plane. I don’t think planes are intrinsically safer than spacecraft. It’s just that, at present anyway, it’s so much easier to test them.
Their announcement is here SpaceX to Send Privately Crewed Dragon Spacecraft Beyond the Moon Next Year - and more about it here: SpaceX reveals plan to send two private citizens around the moon in 2018
The Trump administration are also planning a similar risky mission - pushing back the first humans to use the Space Launch System (SLS) to the maiden flight of their rocket, with a journey around the Moon
Quoting from Human flight around the Moon: a worthy goal, but using the wrong vehicles, this is about the SLS flight but much of this also applies to the SpaceX idea:
“The most serious drawback to the proposed plan, however, is the added risk to the first crew. Flying crew on the first flight of a new launch vehicle is not without precedent. The first flight of the Space Shuttle had a crew. However, the shuttle only orbited the Earth and could quickly return if a problem developed. The Orion capsule, however, would embark on an flight around the Moon lasting more than a week. If a problem occurred at the wrong time, it would take days to get back to Earth.”
“And it’s not just that it is the first flight of the SLS. The Orion capsule has not been adequately flight-tested, either. The Orion capsule did make a single, short uncrewed flight in December 2014, when a Delta IV Heavy rocket boosted the capsule to a high Earth orbit for a five-hour mission. This flight was successful, but the life support system was not installed and the capsule only attained a velocity about 80% of that of a return from the Moon—not enough to fully test the heat shield. Not only that, but this flight lacked the service module that is the critical second component of the Orion spacecraft. The service module, which will be supplied by the European Space Agency, has never been flown and there are no plans to do so prior to the EM-1 mission.”
So, I have concerns with humans on the SLS too. Each mission is so very expensive, half a billion dollars per mission, that they won’t be able to do much testing. It’s not quite the same though because they won’t be doing commercial flights. Rather, it’s more like an early flight with test pilots on board. These are people doing a job they know is risky and which they have chosen as a career, testing spaceships. But it’s risky and could be a huge set back if that first flight is a disaster and they all die.
EASY TO SAY "TAKE THE RISK" BUT THEN IF THEY CRASH - IT NO LONGER SEEMS SUCH A WISE DECISION
It is easy to say "take the risk" until the first crash. If they succeed then there will be those who cheer them on and say it’s brilliant. But sooner or later, encouraged by that success, they send more such flights. Then one of them crashes, and then they will once more get just about everyone saying they pushed too quickly too soon. Here is a "future fake news" story to dramatize it, maybe help it seem more real, as something like this could actually happen.
It’s so different from an uncrewed spaceflight. With uncrewed spaceflight this “gamble on success” has worked for SpaceX. Though they have had at least one occasion where a single failed flight would have been the end of their company (in 2008, Elon Musk says if the fourth SpaceX test flight had failed like the first three, that would have meant bankruptcy and the end of both SpaceX and Tesla). But I don’t think it is the right way to do human spaceflight, to do spectacular risky flights like this when you don’t have to.
Everything is in the timing.
HOW COULD THEY MAKE HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT MUCH SAFER?
So this article has been quite critical of SpaceX's human spaceflight. But I didn't write this to discourage them - that's the last thing on my mind. The main issue here seems to be that they are focused on payload rather than human factors. It's like so far, for them, it seems that humans are just another cargo that happens to need life support. Of course they haven't sent any crew into space yet so hard to say.
To get this to work without accident, they are assuming that many innovative new technologies will work perfectly with almost no testing of them. I don't count one previous crewed flight to the ISS as adequate testing of a Dragon 2 about to go around the Moon. This approach has worked for them with unmanned flights. But with humans, that's surely not the way to do it, to gamble on a spectacular success or equally dramatic failure.
Elon Musk's idea of "fun but risky" human spaceflight - sounds great, bold, adventurous, return of the pioneer spirit etc - until the first accident. But after that, after the first "fun but risky" flight that actually ends up with everyone on board dead - what then? It will happen sooner rather than later with that approach. He might then get a lot of flak for that approach. And those who praise him for being so bold now - if you are one of them - how will you feel if a spaceship with humans on board explodes and everyone dies or they die slowly of carbon dioxide in a one week cruise around the Moon? He made it clear that he thinks of this lunar spaceflight also as risky. It's not just me saying that.
Of course Elon Musk may very well take a very different approach when they do send humans in space. What I suggest next may be what he actually plans when they get down to it. Or it might be what the FAA requires of him.
Anyway just some thoughts about how they could do it more safely.
The main thing I'd suggest, is a slow down of the pace for human spaceflight. Why such a rush to go around the Moon? China has been back and forth from LEO several times and they are not yet set on a journey to the Moon. And they care about prestige and face, but it's just not the time for it yet.
So why not go just a bit more slowly. If they must have humans early on, then to the ISS and LEO. And use the Falcon 9 full thrust, but not keep changing the design. Finalize the design for the human spaceflights, and fly it several times with the Dragon 2 on board as well, before the first humans fly. And I'd keep a close eye on the procedure of loading the fuel after the crew. That would be the main reason to be especially cautious about sending crew early on.
I suppose if it does blow up on the launch pad with the crew on board we get to test the escape system for real. If we could be 100% sure their escape system will work as expected, that would alleviate a lot of concerns on the launch pad. But it has to react within a fraction of a second and hurtle them away from an explosion before it can get to them, so has to be very reliable, not just do what it is supposed to do, but also respond almost instantly to any hint of danger. Perhaps it is. But it is one more thing to fail.
And then - why not do more unmanned flights first as well? They have a great advantage there, to use the same spacecraft for manned and unmanned flights, but why not take advantage of that?
They lose a lot of that advantage by continually changing their designs. Now they have the Dragon 2, which is rated for the Moon or Mars. Well, this might be a time to say "design phase over, this is the ship we are going to fly for the next X many years". So at that point, what's the hurry to put humans on board? Why not have a fair number of cargo runs first before the first human spaceflight? Without changing the design.
So, instead of just one unmanned flight of the Dragon 2 to the ISS before the first crewed flight, why not several? The advantage of being able to test it on unmanned flights is being undermined, seems to me, by this philosophy of continually changing designs.
The first Space Shuttle was of course flown crewed. But that's because it couldn't be flown any other way. The Buran was flown uncrewed. They will fly the first Dragon 2 uncrewed, why not do several like that? Each one is a profit for their company so it's not like they are losing money by sending it uncrewed, that's the beauty of their plan.
Then why make the first long mission relying on life support for a week into a trip around the Moon? Why go for the spectacular and dangerous so quickly? What is the hurry?
Why not a one week trip in LEO first? Surely they'd get paying people for that? Several one week trips to LEO. Maybe a one day visit to the ISS to say "Hi" to the astronauts and perhaps pick up some things to return to Earth for them, at the end of each mission before returning to Earth.
If Virgin Galactica hope to make money from selling sub-orbital hops, surely SpaceX can make it from selling a week in weightlessness in LEO.Far far safer. If anything goes wrong they can be back on Earth in hours.
I say this as someone who is keen on humans returning to the Moon. But - humans safely on the Moon!
For more about the SpaceX plans see SpaceX’s Private Lunar Mission in Work for Last Two Years; Other Opportunities on Horizon
See also Money Won't Save SpaceX's Moon Tourists If Something Goes Wrong
This originates as my answers to two Quora questions: What are your opinions on the SpaceX ‘tourist flight around-the-Moon’ in 2018? and Does SpaceX have the capability to send people around the moon?
You may be interested in my Moon First books - as you see I'm keen on humans back to the Moon! I wish I could be more enthusiastic about this Elon Musk idea and be more optimistic that he could do it so quickly.
I am not enthusiastic about his ideas of trying to colonize Mars, as followers of this blog will know, for many reasons which I have gone into elsewhere - but as far as the Moon, great!
I just think that it is also important to focus on safety for human missions in space. It's risky enough as it is, without making it even more risky than it is already by missing out steps that could make the missions safer.
"MOON FIRST Why Humans on Mars Right Now Are Bad for Science", available on kindle, and also to read for free online.
Case For Moon First: Gateway to Entire Solar System - Open Ended Exploration, Planetary Protection at its Heart - kindle edition or Read it online on my website (free).
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You may also be interested the facebook group: Case for Moon for Humans - Open Ended with Planetary Protection at its Core
I’ve used this answer as a basis for a longer article on my Science20 blog, Why I Wouldn't Fly With SpaceX To The Moon As Soon As 2018 - If They Paid Me A Billion Dollars which starts with my answer to Does SpaceX have the capability to send people around the moon?
In twelve tone music, no, not in the sound. But there are many tuning systems where they do differ. See Robert Walker's answer to To be totally unconventional, should a piano with keys of E# and B#...
(more)In twelve tone music, no, not in the sound. But there are many tuning systems where they do differ. See Robert Walker's answer to To be totally unconventional, should a piano with keys of E# and B# be produced? Would it be more versatile and more interesting? and the other answers to the question.
It depends how large the thing is you are looking for. We can spot objects less than a cm in diameter in LEO through radar. If the ISS was on the Moon it would just span a couple of pixels even in ...
(more)It depends how large the thing is you are looking for. We can spot objects less than a cm in diameter in LEO through radar. If the ISS was on the Moon it would just span a couple of pixels even in Hubble and you wouldn’t expect to see it. We can detect the light from an asteroid 300 meters in diameter out to the outer asteroid belt. But it’s hard to look close to the sun and though we know there are no extra planets between Mercury and the Sun - we can’t rule out a small asteroid or a few there up to tens of km in diameter permanently orbiting close to the Sun. We can spot objects of 100 km in diameter out to way beyond Neptune.
It gets harder to spot things very rapidly as you look further away. First is just resolution - if it is ten times further away, it’s ten times smaller in all its dimensions which makes it a hundredth of the area. So that alone would make something ten times further away more like a hundred times harder to spot. But also, as it gets further from the sun, if it is ten times further, the sunlight falling on it is a hundred times fainter.
The combination of both effects means that a planet ten times further away than Neptune, which is still well within the domain of our Sun, and indeed rather close to it compared to the light years distances between stars, is ten thousand times harder to see in a telescope. If it glows in infrared from its heat of formation or fusion reactions like a star, it’s not so bad because then it just gets a hundred times harder to see the further away it is.
But we can only see distant stars because they are incredibly bright, like our Sun. Galaxies are even brighter in terms of total amount of light though the surface brightness is low - and the furthest you can see with the naked eye on a dark night with good eyesight far from any light pollution is probably the Andromeda galaxy, as a faint smudge. Astronomers can spot supernovae in distant galaxies but you can’t see them by eye.
Apart from that - the main areas we can’t see are the interiors of gas giants and planets, and the oceans of icy moons.
Also there are many objects that we’ve seen once only. Triton is an example, seen close up by Voyager 2 only once, and never again. Far too far away to study in any detail from Earth. One of its most intriguing features are its nitrogen geysers - liquid nitrogen breaking through its surface make the dark streaks here
Pluto is like that too. New Horizon observed it close up, and we have never seen it before and there is no mission on the drawing board yet to follow up though many think we should.
The many small dwarf planets in the outer solar system have never been seen in any detail and may have interesting low temperature phenomena, even nitrogen lakes and rivers made of liquid neon gas, and far enough away, even liquid helium.
As close as the Moon - we could have vast underground caves there over 100 km long and several kilometers in diameter in its low gravity. Also the lunar poles have craters of eternal darkness and it’s really hard to tell what is in those craters because we can’t study them optically, and may have large amounts of ice, at the least do have some ice we know already.
Venus could well have been habitable for long enough, yes! Models of climates of early Venus suggest it could have remained habitable to life on its surface until at least 715 million years ago. An...
(more)Venus could well have been habitable for long enough, yes! Models of climates of early Venus suggest it could have remained habitable to life on its surface until at least 715 million years ago. And it did have a global catastrophe. That was a global upheaval 200 million to 1 billion years ago when the entire surface was resurfaced. It probably happened because it didn’t have continental drift. One explanation of this is the “stagnant lid” hypothesis. Because it had no continental drift and the entire surface “turned over” over a period of a hundred million years or so.
We can tell the age very approximately by the numbers of craters and its entire surface is very new. It only has very big craters because smaller ones burn up in the atmosphere before hitting the surface. Those conclusions are based on an analysis of nearly 1000 craters.
If so, it might also have had a thinner atmosphere before that and the modern atmosphere could have been created during the upheaval. If so, it could have been a habitable planet until then, much like Earth.
But if so, there’s probably not much left of that original surface. After global resurfacing, heating of the surface to hundreds of degrees C (if it was habitable before), sulfuric acid rain and so on, I wouldn’t expect footprints or any structures to survive. There might not be much at all left from that early surface.
We could have meteorites from it on our Moon however. But - how likely is it that a meteorite from Venus carries evidence of technology? It could have evidence of biology though. We could even find pristine organics from Venus and perhaps even entire small multicellular creatures if they existed.
Annabel Cartwright in her "Venus Hypothesis" goes so far as to suggest that large impacts on Venus combined with the global resurfacing event could have sent material all the way to Earth as recently as the Cambrian and Ordovician periods. She thinks that this might have been a time when it would be particularly easy for life to be transferred from Venus to Earth. Not directly through volcanic action but through large meteorites hitting Venus during the resurfacing event, while it still had a relatively thin atmosphere.
She suggests that the increasing day length on Venus would have given an evolutionary advantage to life capable of extended deep hibernation states, high resistance to extreme temperatures and radiation. She cites examples of early life with these capabilities such as the tardigrades, nematodes and Triops cancriformis.
Tardigrade (water bear) drying out and rehydrating. While dried out it is one of the hardiest of all multicellular lifeforms,, able to survive even the vacuum of space, extreme cold and heat, and quite high levels of ionizing radiation, a thousand times the levels that are fatal for humans. It can survive in the dormant state for at least a decade and is the top candidate for multicellular life that could be transferred on a meteorite.
What about shock of ejection from a planet? Small things less than 100 microns across can survive, but in tests of impacts on a planet or the Moon, plant seeds break apart (for instance). So what about Tardigrades? They are complex multicellular creatues with around 40,000 cells. It turns out that resisting impact shock is another of their many talents! They survive impacts of 3.23 km / sec, the highest speeds tested in the experiment with shock pressures up to 7.548 GPa. After rehydration there were some tardigrades still swmming around :). Here is another experiment where they survive impacts of up to 5.49 km / sec. They can also survive accelerations of 16,000 g for one minute, in another experiment (this is different from an asteroid impact scenario though which involves accelerations up to tens of thousands of gs in 30 ms).
So they might be pre-adapted to survive passage on a meteorite from Venus to Earth. Also life might have evolved more rapidly on Venus because of the higher levels of radiation there. She suggests this as a possible explanation for the species that arose during the Cambrian explosion with apparently no predecessors and only surviving for a short period of time on geological timescales. She also makes an interesting point that early Earth had connected seas, but early Venus might have had disconnected seas so permitting different forms of life to evolve in each one, so it might have had a lot more genetic diversity in its seas than Earth had, similarly to the way isolated islands on Earth have divergent populations of land animals. If her hypothesis was right, then we'd expect to find those meteorites from Venus on our Moon, from time periods on Venus as recent as the Cambrian explosion and the Ordovician period. And then could compare those with meteorites from Earth at the same time.
It’s a rather way out hypothesis perhaps. But we could be “Venusians” :). Others think we could have originated from Mars as single cell life that got to Earth much earlier on over three billion years ago when the solar system was more habitable. Some also think life could have got here from Ceres.
Another thing to bear in mind - intelligence doesn’t equate to technology. Imagine if you had a civilization of parrots - the grey parrot is amongst our most intelligent non human species. Even if they developed speech, writing, simple technology, it would be pretty hard for them to do much. And if fish or octopuses - or quadrupeds like goats or whatever were actually as intelligent as us in the past, any of them, then we wouldn’t get any evidence at all as they just don’t have the physique to do tool using. Or live in the sea so can’t make fire easily.
I think that actually the chance of an intelligence developing technology may be quite low. Which leads to an interesting question - are we really the first species as intelligent as us on our own planet? Or only the first ones with technology? I have no idea how you could decide if some past species known only from fossils was intelligent in the sense we are. You can’t tell by the brain size as after all grey parrots have very small brains, maybe large compared with their body - but would you guess that grey parrots are amongst the most intelligent of all species apart from human if you just had fossils?
Alex (gray parrot) - showed perhaps the most advanced understanding of language of any of the creatures tested to date.
So, it’s going to be pretty hard to rule out intelligence. But you could make a dramatic discovery of intelligence through technology. But I’m not sure how that could happen with Venus unless they developed space technology and we find their artefacts somewhere in space. However if they did, it can’t have lasted for long, as there isn’t any sign of any being doing extensive space exploration. We’d surely spot their tracks on the Moon or Mars if they had. Well - unless they also had a strict policy of not interfering… So that they have minimal traces somewhere, a few asteroids they mined maybe, but they never landed on any Moon or major planet or only studied them carefully remotely.
Anyway - that’s rather “way out”. However if they did develop technology - well - space technology is only a few thousand years after the origins of simple writing and the most basic of modern tools. If they got to the point where they made recognizable buildings - well - I’d expect they probably also got as far as space technology and so we might find traces of them in space somewhere. If not though, if non technological intelligences, I think hard enough to discover them on Earth, surely impossible. But we might find evidence of multicelular life in Venus meteorites in the ice in the poles of our Moon.
No not at all. This is a claim by people who are as daft as a brush as they say. The idea of Nibiru is so daft that no-one with any astronomical background will give it any thought at all. It’s an ...
(more)No not at all. This is a claim by people who are as daft as a brush as they say. The idea of Nibiru is so daft that no-one with any astronomical background will give it any thought at all. It’s an impossible orbit. If there ever was a planet in such an orbit then it wouldn’t have lasted for as long as a million years so it either hit another planet or the Sun or was ejected from the solar system or similar. It would be long gone, well over four billion years ago. So no-one will take this seriously. Many with an astronomical background have probably never heard of it - I hadn’t until about a year ago. It would never get published in any astronomical news source or journal as it is just total BS one nonsense idea on top of another.
They often elaborate the story by saying that Robert Harrington discovered planet X in 1983 and was murdered by NASA or by the government, in order to hide his discovery from the general public.
Robert Harrington, photograph from his obituary Bob Harrington Obituary - he was not murdered. He died of throat cancer six months AFTER his theory of an extra planet beyond Neptune was disproved by Myles Standish using data from the Voyager 2 flyby of Neptune.
The truth is that Robert Harrington did indeed hypothesize a planet X beyond Neptune. His paper is here: THE LOCATION OF PLANET X.
This is not Nibiru. It could hardly be more different. It’s just a normal planet orbiting way beyond Neptune.
As you will see at the end, on page 1478, he suggested a possible planet with, as one example, a semi-major axis 101.2 AU and eccentricity 0.411 which makes its perihelion 59.607 by this Ellipse Calculator, so the closest to the Sun it would get is one and a half times the distance to Pluto. He made this prediction on the basis of anomalies in the orbits of Uranus and Neptune.
However, six months before his death, Myles Standish used new data from the Voyager 2 flyby of Neptune. As a result the mass of Neptune was revised downwards by 0.5%. The data he had been using to hypothesize planet X depended on a more massive Neptune and when you redo the calculations with Neptune a bit lighter,the need for planet X vanishes. See Planet X - no dynamical evidence in the optical observations
Myles Standish’s article was published after Robert Harrington’s death, but submitted long before it and Robert Harrington would have known that his theory was disproved when he died.
And we know for sure that he was not murdered. He died of cancer of the throat. His obituary is here: Bob Harrington Obituary - that’s the more detailed obituary from his observatory. The NY times obituary is here, just says he died of cancer: Robert Harrington, 50, Astronomer in Capital
For a list of the daft things the Nibiru people say that immediately reveals that they know nothing about astronomy see my Nibiru Bullshit Tester - How to check if they know anything about astronomy
But basically if you see an article about a planet called Nibiru and it’s not debunking it, you can be certain that it is total BS. It’s not even wrong or disputed. It’s nonsense.
One example I often use is that it’s like someone who claims to be an authority on sport who then goes on to say that Usain Bolt is a top seeded tennis player and won Wimbledon in 2008. The rational response is not to doubt your understanding of Usain Bolt but to just cross them off your list of people who know anything about sport. It’s the same for Nibiru and Astronomy.
For an asteroid ten kilometers or larger, it’s effectively zero. The automated searches for asteroids by Pan STARRS etc have been very effective. They have found all the asteroids that do regular f...
(more)For an asteroid ten kilometers or larger, it’s effectively zero. The automated searches for asteroids by Pan STARRS etc have been very effective. They have found all the asteroids that do regular flybys of Earth of ten kilometers or larger. The largest known potentially hazardous asteroid is Toutatis at diameter of 5.4 km but it won’t hit us in the next century. There is nothing larger than 10 km that can hit us at all at present.
Astronomers can use those observations to work out their orbits for centuries into the future. None of the known asteroids will hit Earth in this century. You can check this by going to the Current Impact Risks Sentry Table which shows the combined results of astronomers in dozens of countries world wide. If the top entry is white, blue or green there is no significant chance at all of an impact. The blue ones are of diameter 50 meters or smaller. They could cause local damage - that’s like Chelyabinsk, but no global damage.
A few of the flybys we get are by comets, about 1 in 146. So there’s a tiny chance of a comet impact by a 10 km comet in the next century. But the chance of an asteroid impact is 1 in a million per century. So for a comet that’s 1 in 146 million of an impact in the next century. That’s so tiny we can forget it.
Sometimes Earth may get more comets than usual and then the comet impact risk may be significant. But at present it is tiny.
We get asteroids about 1.5 km in diameter or larger every million years. So one chance in 10,000 per century.
Meteor Crater in Arizona was caused by a 60 m iron meteorite. We get impacts that large perhaps once every 1000 years so 1 in 10 for the next century. But most will fall in the sea or in a desert. It’s not large enough to cause a tsunami.
Even a large asteroid of 1 km in diameter if it lands in the sea may not cause a tsunami. The reason is that the sea bounces back from the impact - unlike an earthquake induced tsunami where the entire sea bed below the origin of the tsunami is uplifted. So the waves from the impact will probably rapidly diminish in height and it won’t have effects except locally. It’s large enough to have some global effects such as some global cooling, like a large volcanic eruption.
However we have now found more than 90% of the 1 km and larger asteroids and expect to reach 99% by the mid to late 2020s. So the chance of one of those this century is already reduced to perhaps 1 in 100,000 and if we find 99% and still none are headed our way, then its a 1 in a million chance.
We could find out for sure by putting some more money into asteroid detection. The B612 foundation used to recommend Sentinel, a space telescope to orbit just outside the orbit of Venus, at a cost of $500 million to look outward with infrared. They now propose instead a fleet of eight cubesats using synthetic tracking technology. This would cost only $50 million and find most of even very small asteroids that do regular flybys within 6.5 years.
. The idea is explained in techy detail in this paper. Finding Very Small Near-Earth Asteroids using Synthetic Tracking. For an easier to read summary of it, see “Synthetic Tracking” Set to Revolutionise Near-Earth Asteroid Discovery
The idea is that instead of doing a 30 second exposure, you do many shorter 2 second exposures. With conventional CCD's that adds to the read noise so you get more errors but there are new CCD's developed for medical imaging that permit fast accurate reading, called Scientific CMOS detectors. The Andor Zyla is an example here.
Andor Zyla 5.5 | sCMOS Camera medical imaging camera capable of fast read out with low read error
You can then use this to simulate tracking the asteroid with the camera, which makes the asteroid far brighter in the images.
This image shows a the result of stacking many photographs of asteroid 2009BL with camera set to follow the stars on the left - notice how the asteroid is shown as a streak, and rather faint. On the right, the same photos are stacked to follow the asteroid which then shows as a much brighter spot, and the stars are streaked and fainter.
Image from: DETECTION OF A FAINT FAST-MOVING NEAR-EARTH ASTEROID USING THE SYNTHETIC TRACKING TECHNIQUE
When the asteroid is small and traveling faster across the field of view, the trail can be so faint it can’t be distinguished from background noise when the camera follows the stars. If you know its velocity you can make it much brighter by following the asteroid. But what can you do if you haven’t detected it yet and don’t know which way it is moving? The idea of synthetic tracking is that you take lots of short exposure photos and just try stacking them in many different ways until you find the right velocity and an asteroid pops into vie win the photo. This is time consuming but modern graphics cards permit fast parallel processing which makes synthetic tracking feasible.
This approach can make it easier to spot fainter asteroids. It might mean for instance that you can spot an asteroid ten times further away than before. That means a thousand times the volume of space covered. So this technique can lead to a huge increase in the detection of asteroids.
We could retire most of the asteroid impact risk for $50 million with this new technique
The researchers found that fewer than eight cubesats, fitted with 15 centimeter synthetic tracking telescopes could find more than 70% of NEO's larger than 45 meters in diameter in less than six years (these are the asteroids that are most hazardous for us). The total cost would be $50 million. With larger 30 cm telescopes then eight satellites could find 95% of the NEOs larger than 45 meters in diameter in the same time period of less than six years. For details see their 2016 Annual Progress Report.
If I was a president of the US (not that I’d want to be or be capable of being :) ), my first executive order would probably be to set aside $50 million to build and launch that fleet of eight cubesats. Surely Congress would pass that law if it was well argued for. Just about any developed country could find that amount from small change in their defense budget. They could unilaterally retire pretty much the entire threat from asteroid impacts.
Many individuals who win the lottery could also find such an amount, as well as individuals who are multimillionaires or billionaires through inheritance or from their own work.
If we knew the orbits of these asteroids decades before an impact, they would be easy to deflect. It only takes the tiniest of nudges to deflect an asteroid if it impacts on Earth several decades into the future while it takes a big push to deflect it given only a few months of warning.
Some people have been killed by meteorites. But it is very very rare. Including two reindeer herders in Siberia killed by the Tunguska impact. See my answer to What are the chances of an asteroid or comet hitting the U.S. in the next 50 years?
$50 million spread over the US population, say, is a one off cost of 15 cents per person. In the UK (where I live) we could do it for a one off cost of £1.60 per person - that's to find them for the entire world. As an example, the UK recently voted to renew Trident at a cost variously estimated at £40 billion to £205 billion ($50 billion to $256 billion). The cost of finding 70% of Near Earth Asteroids down to 45 meters within six years is a tiny 0.1% of that. We can certainly afford to do that.
See also my Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
No, this doesn’t work. Magnetic fields don’t have a significant effect on motions of planets. The problem is that magnetic fields follow an inverse cube law which means they drop off very very quic...
(more)No, this doesn’t work. Magnetic fields don’t have a significant effect on motions of planets. The problem is that magnetic fields follow an inverse cube law which means they drop off very very quickly. Magnetic fields are strong close up, and over a very short distance a small bar magnet can easily counteract the gravity of the entire Earth, as happens when you pick up a metal object using a magnet.
Notice here how the crane magnet easily overcomes the gravitational attraction of the entire Earth on a large heavy piece of metal. But it only does so when it is very very close to the piece of metal.
Notice that the lumps of metal don’t even begin to move until the magnet is very close to them. Then they wobble a bit and jump up to the magnet, showing that the magnetic field is very strong but only over small distances
Earth does have a strong magnetic field at its core, but though it is strong compared to most planets, by the time you get to the surface, it has hardly any noticeable effect. It does affect compass needles but only because they are so delicately balanced that a tiny field can make a difference.
We don’t get flybys of huge comets and asteroids anyway. The largest ones are of order 10 km or so or a bit larger. In the early solar system we got larger ones but they have all been swept out of Earth’s orbit long ago and we are now protected by Jupiter which does a pretty good job of sweeping out the larger objects from further afield though it doesn’t do such a good job of the smaller asteroids.
To affect us it would need to be of similar size to Earth, otherwise Earth would attract the object rather than vice versa. But even a huge magnetic field nearby would have very little effect on the Earth’s motion because of this inverse cube drop off.
Now it’s perhaps just as well. Because with an inverse cube force law, orbits are unstable.
This shows motion of a planet under an inverse cube force law, the so called Cotes's spiral If planets attracted each other under magnetism instead of gravity then there would be no stable orbits in the universe.
Magnetic fields do have an effect on charged particles. Atomic nuclei and electrons can be propelled at huge speeds by the solar magnetic fields. That’s how solar storms work. The Aurora also is the result of particles that are accelerated in our own magnetic field and then hit the atmosphere. And the Earth’s magnetic field helps protect the ISS and satellites from harmful charged particles from the Sun especially during the occasional solar storm.
But for that to happen the particle has to be small (because otherwise effects of gravity and just momentum would overwhelm this tiny effect) and to have a positive or negative electric charge. These are particles that are no heavier than atoms - typically atomic nuclei, or the very lightweight electrons.
Now the reason a magnet has only an inverse cube force law is because it has both a North and South magnetic field. The North and South poles generate inverse square law fields but when you find the difference, taking account of their separation, the result is an inverse cube law. For details see the answers here to: Why does the magnetic field obey an inverse cube law?
The theoretical magnetic monopoles, if they exist - an isolated North or South pole on its own - would have an inverse square force law. But nobody has ever found one of those yet. We don’t know if they are just very rare and we have to keep looking, or if for some reason they can’t form at all. And you’d need a lot of magnetic monopoles inside a planet to affect another planet filled with the opposite sense of monopoles to attract it, or the same sense of monopoles to repel it. Also they would have the awkward property that gravity doesn’t have that poles of the same polarity repel. So a pile of monopoles of the same polarity would push each other apart.
So planets following inverse square law orbits using magnetism based on magnetic monopoles seem unlikely too.
Well first there’s no Buddhist “creed”. It’s an open ended path of discovery. So though Buddha said many things as recorded in the sutras and many teachers since then have said many things, unlike ...
(more)Well first there’s no Buddhist “creed”. It’s an open ended path of discovery. So though Buddha said many things as recorded in the sutras and many teachers since then have said many things, unlike in other religions you don’t have to say “I believe in …” about anything when you go through the “refuge ceremony” which is when you make a public commitment to follow the path of the Buddha. Instead it is a commitment to openness and to becoming a “refugee”. So though there are many Buddhist traditions and ideas and beliefs, they are all much more by way of guidelines and suggestions and things to look at.
So in that sense it is hard to say that Buddhists don’t believe you can take rebirth as a plant. You don’t have to affirm a belief in rebirth at all. Just to have an open mind about what happens when you die. It’s a commitment to not closing yourself off from answers that may surprise you.
But generally Buddhists tend not to believe you can be reborn as a plant. While the Jains think you can be. That’s why Jains are so careful about their dealings even with plants. They talk about eating fruit rather than to eat food that involved cutting down plants or branches and fallen fruit rather than taking fruit from a tree.
The nearest thing with Buddhist stories is that you can have beings who live in trees like our dryads (in trees) and naiads (in lakes and rivers), of Greek mythology. So they may closely identify with a particular tree, think of themselves as that tree even, but they are more a spirit of the tree than the tree itself. Nature spirits. Who they would think of as beings like us, in the sense that they are born, grow old and die, maybe with longer lives.
Dancing Dryads by Albert Pinkham Ryder - Wikipedia
But there’s also a Buddhist idea that is almost like a kind of immanent consciousness in everything. Like, that we separate ourselves off from it. Also ideas of messages that are hidden in the world. Getting moments of insight from seeing a flower, or a stream, or a cloud. Messages of insight from a trivial seeming thing like a broken pot. So it’s like, the world itself is far more alive than we think. Every moment then instead of being surrounded by dull lifeless objects that we seem to understand so well, there is something far more dynamic going on. So then - this idea of dividing it up and say - “I’m a sentient being and this insect is a sentient being, but this tree is not, although there might be a spirit lives in it” - that’s being far too cut and dried and making conceptual divisions that may be missing a lot of what is going on. The answer isn’t though to just give up on those concepts. We can’t do that anyway. To try to give up on concepts is itself likely to be a conceptual game for us if we try that. It can though help with respect for other views and to help keep an open mind even about things we may have become very confident about. And to be open to surprises even from things that seem totally boring and dull, like a blade of grass, or a tree, or even a stone.
You might also be interested in the comment about “ABOUT HOW BUDDHISTS NORMALLY THINK ABOUT REBIRTH”
This was originally written about the book, but the movie has the same storm scene which is what this answer was about. It was a really gripping story, I greatly enjoyed it, and had enough hard sci...
(more)This was originally written about the book, but the movie has the same storm scene which is what this answer was about. It was a really gripping story, I greatly enjoyed it, and had enough hard science to be very satisfying. And was a real page turner, I think I probably read it all the way through in one go until I finished it :).
But it did have quite a few improbabilities. Especially, the dust storm at the beginning. Let me explain:
The highest speeds are probably in the dust devils. Can be up to 45 meters per second or 162 kilometers per hour. HiRISE Clocks Hurricane Speed Winds In Martian Dust Devils
That's easily fast enough to count as a hurricane on the Earth. However the strength of the wind depends not just on its speed but also the density of the wind.
ONE HUNDREDTH DENSITY OF EARTH WINDS
The density of the Mars atmosphere is far less than Earth's. This varies between day and night and between summer and winter and depending on altitude. It is greatest at the bottom of the Hellas basin in the northern summer. Roughly though, it is about 1% of Earth's.
So, that means, that the winds have a hundredth of the mass, and energy, they have on Mars for the same velocity.
EQUIVALENT TO WINDS OF A TENTH OF THE SPEED
Or, putting that another way, to convert those 162 kilometers per hour winds into Earth equivalents - since kinetic energy = mass * velocity squared, then that hundredth of the mass means winds there have the same kinetic energy as a wind on Earth at a tenth of the velocity.
So - that 162 kilometers per hour on Mars is roughly equivalent in its effect to 16.2 kilometers per hour on Earth in terms of its kinetic energy.
Even if you were stood right in the middle of a dust devil, you'd feel roughly the same strength of wind blowing past you that you'd feel on a gentle cycle ride on a calm day.
Astronaut caught in a Martian dust storm as imagined in the BBC Space Odyssey (TV series) - 27 minutes into the DVD.
And another screen shot from the same TV series of the astronaut standing unperturbed as the dust devil passes by - so this is a movie that got it right.
ANALOGY TO EXPLAIN WHY THIS IS
If someone is throwing five pin bowling balls at you, at say 20 miles per hour, and lots of them, say 10 a minute, you'd notice it.
If they throw ping pong balls at you at the same speed, same frequency, you'd hardly notice.
It would be roughly equivalent to throwing the five pin bowling balls at you at a much slower speed.
Table tennis ball mass 2.7 grams
Five pin bowling ball - mass 1.588 to 1.644 kilograms
In fact, a ping pong ball at 2.7 grams and 20 miles per hour has same kinetic energy as a five pin bowling ball at 1644 grams and 0.81 miles / hour ( 20*sqrt(2.7/1644) )
That's very slow, would be hard to actually throw it much distance at all at that speed. It's more like, if they are holding it in their hand and swing it gently back and forth and accidentally hit you with it as they do so. You'd feel roughly the same impact as you'd feel from a ping pong ball thrown at you as fast as they can throw it.
Well it's like that. We don't have much experience of being hit by very light things at 160 km / hour which is why I am using these everyday examples of much heavier things thrown at slower speeds.
STRONGEST WINDS ON MARS ARE EQUIVALENT IN STRENGTH TO BEAUFORT LEVEL 3, GENTLE BREEZE
On the Beaufort scale, it's equivalent to level 3, gentle breeze. Enough wind so that small twigs start to move about and the tops of waves at sea begin to show a little bit of white. But it's not quite enough to raise dust or dead leaves in autumn. That's Beaufort level 4.
Even the strongest winds won't be able to blow away significant parts of a rover or damage the solar panels.
ENOUGH WIND TO DISTURB AN AUTUMN LEAF?
The very strongest gusts of winds on Mars, right in the middle of a dust devil, wouldn't be enough to disturb the position of an autumn leaf if there was one on the surface at least not under Earth gravity.
If you put an autumn leaf on Mars, 40% lighter, perhaps there'd be enough wind in the strongest gusts of a dust devil to gently blow it across the surface.
EXAMPLE UNDISTURBED PARACHUTES
As an example of this, the parachutes from our landers on Mars remain on the surface just where they landed for years on end.
This image may identify one of the parachutes of Beagle 2 which has remained undisturbed on the surface for about a decade. You wouldn't expect it to be moved by the Martian winds as they are just too weak for this.Beagle 2 spacecraft found intact on surface of Mars after 11 years
Indeed the dust devils have proved to be useful by cleaning the dust from the solar panels. And they can only do that because the Mars dust is extremely fine, as fine as cigarette smoke. They couldn't pick up ordinary Earth dust.
The average dust particle size is of the order of 1.6 microns.
Dust on Mars - University of Copenhagen You would need a microscope or hand lens to see the individual particles. This Mars dust is similar in size to the dust in tobacco smoke and average sized bacteria. Particle Sizes
HOW THE SAND DUNES WORK - BECAUSE OF MUCH LOWER GRAVITY
The sand dunes are impressive looking as if they were results of much stronger winds. But the larger particles in the dunes move through "saltation" where the particles do not get taken right up into the atmosphere but instead move on ballistic trajectories - of a few hundred meters (far further than on Earth) - this moves particles of up to mms scale that are far too large to be lifted up into the atmosphere. Giant saltation on Mars
The huge moving sand dunes there are a result of the lower gravity, which lets the grains of sand move more easily without ever being taken up into the atmosphere. So that again gives an impression that the winds on Mars are stronger than they are.
UNDERSTANDABLE MISTAKE
So it's an understandable mistake to make. But it's a mistake all the same.
Then, the idea he could sustain himself for so long by the methods he used I thought was wildly improbable.
But, as I said, enjoyed it, just suspended disbelief, much as you do when you get Star Trek books talking about transporters and hyperspace. So, this is a Mars where the winds can blow big things away beyond the horizon. Adds to the drama, makes it a more exciting story.
Okay it's not quite the Mars in our solar system, but can enjoy it all the same and enjoy the techy details he did get right. And things like how he eventually communicates back to Earth are really clever and ingenious and a lot of fun. That was the best bit of the book for me as far as hard science goes :).
UPDATE
Peter Voelkl says in a comment, it's an intentional "mistake" he did for plot purposes, i.e. a bit of artistic license.
He explains it 14 minutes into this interview here: Triangulation 163: Andy Weir from Triangulation (MP3)
Also at 32 minutes into this
He mentions some more things in this interview with Adam Savage of Mythbusters
At 9 minutes in they discuss how his spacesuits can be put on by one person unlike present day ones and how they are flexible so you don't have to e.g. use tools to pick things up from the surface as the Apollo astronauts do. But that's more like extrapolation of current technology.
As 36 minutes in he mentions a mistake he did with reducing Hydrazine, exothermic reaction a chemist says that - in the book he gives enough information to calculate the temperature increase of the hab to do it over the given time - it would have heated the hab by 400 C roasted him alive, too late for him to correct it as it was already in print. A million ways he could have fixed it.
At 39 minutes in he mentions another error - that he didn't know you can just bake the CO2 out of lithium hydroxide canisters.
This is a copy of my answer to: How realistic is the book "The Martian"
I don’t suggest that they are merged since this one is about the movie, not the book and this one is particularly about the science, while I suppose the other one could cover many other things such as sociology and psychology of it.
The question isn’t much different for reincarnation or for the transition from a young child to an adult. I’m very different from the young child I was more than half a century ago. You may have an...
(more)The question isn’t much different for reincarnation or for the transition from a young child to an adult. I’m very different from the young child I was more than half a century ago. You may have an accident and be changed physically. Face disfigured. Unable to walk or do activities you could do before. Or you have been bed ridden for weeks, or months and then suddenly you can walk again. Cured from a childhood illness or condition. Or you discover a capability you never knew you had, musical instrument, wind surfing, artist, table tennis, whatever it is. Or your political views change suddenly, as something happens to cause you to re-evaluate them. Or you develop a new interest. You always laughed at train spotters then one day a friend takes you train spotting, and you suddenly see the point and from then on are an enthusiastic train spotter and this interest totally fills your life- or whatever it is.
Or you adopt a new religion which you follow sincerely. Evangelical christians talk about being “born again” and though others may be skeptical about their beliefs, we all know what it is like to feel like you are a new person.
Through all these changes then we think “I” am the same person. And that somehow “I” am permanent and unchanging. That all those changes happen to me, but I am not changed in any way. But how can an unchanging self have changes happen to it?
The changing impermanent self is no problem. Buddha himself talked about himself. It’s this illusion of a permanent unchanging self that continues through everything that’s more what they are talking about in the teachings of “non self”.
So, that’s really not that much different for transition to a new life. The Therevadhans think that the last moment of this life is the first moment of the next. Other Buddhists think that there is a transition in between, the Bardo. Some have very little by way of teachings on what it means, e.g. Zen Buddhism. The main thing though, for a sincere follower of Buddha’s path is to keep an open mind about anything you can’t see to be true for yourself, such as what happens when you die (for most of us). But the main idea is just an idea of continuity much as for transition from one moment to another in this life.
And though that’s a dramatic change - that one moment you are in this life, next moment you are in the intermediate state or are beginning to mature already as a new lifeform - still maybe it’s not quite so dramatic and different as all that. Every moment our entire body changes. We know this from quantum mechanics. Nothing can stay still for any length of time. Every electron, every proton, is moving, continuously. So even a fraction of a second later, even a nanosecond later, our entire body has changed on the atomic level. Nothing is in the same state and position as it was before. And you can come to see every moment as a chance for a completely fresh start and new beginning.
And - unless you are awakened - then yes - you do believe in a ‘self’ in this sense of a permanent unchanging self. And Buddhists believe this also. Not in the sense of a dogma. There is no need to say “I believe I have a permanent self”. It’s something we just take for granted. Whatever we do, we have this belief in the background. If someone says to you “actually it’s not there” it’s not going to make the blindest bit of difference. So, Buddhists, like everyone else, think they have a permanent unchanging self, even after hearing numerous teachings on the topic. They may say that we don’t, may even teach non self, but unless they are awakened, then they actually do think in terms of a permanent unchanging self. They may think that they have a self that has realized “non self” :). Not as an intellectual theory, just as an assumption they make without thinking.
And - “non self” can easily be made into a theory or doctrine that you learn and try to see to be true. But if you do that you are getting trapped in the very same process that causes problems in the first place. It becomes something that you learn, or you see, or a wisdom you have. So then ask yourself, “who is it who is realizing or understanding non self?”. And then you may find that the whole idea of a concrete graspable self has sneaked in again by a side entrance when you weren’t noticing. And it’s the same for the one who is asking all those questions too. Although your intellect helps a lot by clearing things up, confusions of various sorts, with the help of others often, you don’t get to realize non self by developing any kind of an elaborate theory.
So - that’s why you may find the Buddhist teachings inadequate and confusing. Because if you truly understood non self, then you would be awakened already.
The way I’ve been taught, the reason we don’t see it, is because it is so clear and obvious to us all the time. Like missing the biggest letters on a map and only seeing the smaller place names. So familiar, obvious and clear that we can’t see it.
It is a truth to realize in the same way that you understand the truth of suffering. No amount of intellectual teaching could explain what suffering, and confusion, and not being able to find a permanent happy place in the world - if you didn’t know what that was about, you wouldn’t really understand it if you had only an intellectual understanding. If you had never felt any unsatisfactoriness in anything - how could you truly understand what suffering is.
So - it’s very like the idea of a Zen koan. You don’t understand non self, can’t. You understand some ideas about it, that point at it - but only in a most indirect way. Like the finger and the Moon. All you’ve ever seen is a finger. People have pointed at the Moon over and over but all you’ve ever seen are fingers, and have never seen the Moon. That’s what it is like for all of us on the path. But you have some kind of an idea what the Moon is like, you’ve heard descriptions of it, but never seen it.
So, some people find this inspiring, and want to follow the path. There is no way to actually force yourself to understand non self. Any amount of effort will only reinforce this strong focus we have on the idea of the one who is seeking, searching, trying to understand, perhaps sometimes a strong idea that one has understood - only to realize that this is just this strong grasping at self once more in another form.
Luckily there are many other things we can follow along the path. Basic morality, and relating to truth in other areas. Compassion and wisdom. And then realizing non self eventually has to come from somewhere outside of your ordinary self, otherwise it just becomes another possession reinforcing the idea of the possessor.
Meanwhile we do have selves in the ordinary sense that we are people, have names, live somewhere, have friends etc etc. And this idea of self that the Buddha taught about in the teachings of non self - this is something that we can’t do anything about by trying to destroy it. To try to erase it, to pretend it isn’t there, to act as if one hasn’t got a self, anything like that is just more tricks of ego, and those are natural things to do too once one is on the path.
All one can do is to take as light a touch as possible, to have a sense of humour and amusement at all the many tricks one gets involved in, how whatever happens, however much you are involved in compassionate action, wisdom, however much one is meditating, following the path, at some point or another you suddenly notice that it is still “all about you”. Not in a selfish way, you may be involved in some unselfish compassionate action, and still notice that somehow, everything is still getting referred back to this point, this self, as the one who is doing it, and who is the reference point for everything that is going on.
And you may even think you have seen really clearly that this reference point just isn’t there in the way you thought there was - look for it, don’t find it, have the realization (you might think) that there is no such self in that sense and never has been. Great! And then you find that you are grasping at your self again as the reference point for that insight!
Sometimes these insights may be totally manufactured, and maybe, the teachers say, at times the truth is actually breaking through. And actually (at least as it is taught in some of the Buddhist traditions) the truth keeps breaking through all the time, every moment, but we miss it over and over again. And if we glimpse it momentarily we just make it into another way of reinforcing this idea of this self we think we somehow rather paradoxically, both have and are.
All you can do is to lighten up and open out. And others help a lot there. Because they are not you. Often animals, birds, natural things too can lead to that opening out, a moment of something other, something that is not all refered to you.
First, nobody knows what effect lunar gravity has on the human body. The visits by the Apollo astronauts were far too short to notice anything. You can even suppose it is better for health than Ear...
(more)First, nobody knows what effect lunar gravity has on the human body. The visits by the Apollo astronauts were far too short to notice anything. You can even suppose it is better for health than Earth gravity. And it could also be better for health for some people, e.g. older people with weak bones or failing hearts, or medical conditions, or depending on genetics.
The numbers here are arbitrary. I just used 100 for zero g health, 500 for Earth gravity, and various numbers in between to make a nice graph, with the online Line graph maker. (If you want to duplicate it, I used 100 48 520 500, 100 650 400 500, 100 350 200 500, 100 150 600 500, and 100 40 50 500).
Also the graph may depend on your age, sex, health conditions, genetics, etc. Indeed each person might have a slightly different graph here and different optimal partial gravity levels for health.
Lines 1 and 5 show the possibility that some levels of partial gravity could be even worse for health than zero g, and lines 1, 2 and 4 show the possibility that some levels of partial gravity could be better for health than full g. Lines 2, 3 and 5 shows the possibility that lunar gravity could be better than Mars g for health, perhaps for some people or health conditions.
Can we rule out any of these possibilities yet?
If we do need more than lunar gravity, there could be many ways to deal with it. I cover this in more detail in my Will Astronauts Need To Augment Lunar Gravity? If So, How? and in the two books I link to at the end, but here are some ideas from it:
One idea is to build a velodrome style track on the Moon for cyclists to use to keep healthy.
Dunc Gray Velodrome in the City of Bankstown, Australia, cycling venue for 2000 Olympic games. Photo by Adam.J.W.C. It bends at a maximum angle of 42°. A more steeply banked velodrome on the Moon, banking to a maximum angle of 80° would let cyclists generate between half and full g by cycling round and round. For normal cycling speeds of 10 to 15 meters per second, or 22 to 33.5 miles per hour, the lunar velodrome could be 50 meters in diameter, see Human Powered Centrifuges on the Moon or Mars.
Then, it seems that we can tolerate faster spins in zero g than on Earth. Here is Tim Peake spinning at about 60 rpm in the ISS. for a couple of minutes, no nausea, only momentary dizziness when he stops.
He says he is pretty sure he couldn't tolerate that on Earth. So anecdotally it suggests that we can tolerate very high spin rates in zero g. Taking the radius as 0.25 meters at a guess, his head and feet will be both under full g, his torso around zero g as he spins. Could he spin like this indefinitely? If so, it's very promising I think for the use of a short arm centrifuge to counteract health issues of humans in zero g.
One theory is that it's because the ostoliths that sense linear acceleration along the rotation axis on Earth due to Earth's gravity are not stimulated in space. Perhaps after a while they “tune out”. You can read more about this idea here: chapter II, Chapter 11, Experiment M131. Human Vestibular Function in Biomedical results from Skylab
So, we don't have too much data. There's the series of experiments on Skylab, which found that astronauts spinning in space can tolerate spinning motions they couldn't tolerate before, and then could tolerate in space and for a while after (even two months after returning to Earth). Then there’s the anecdotal experience of astronauts on the ISS who are not measured or monitored in any way as they spin. Both of those were very short duration, a few minutes at most. It would be easy to get at least some preliminary data by just asking astronauts to tumble head over heels in the ISS with other astronauts keeping them tumbling, as with Tim Peakes demonstration. No need for a “litter chair” to do this. think myself on the basis of the very limited data we have from zero g, as well as experiments in adaptation on Earth, that a simple lightweight internal centrifuge might well be all that is needed to counteract many, and perhaps even all the ill effects of zero g on the human body. It might even be that you only need to do it for a few hours a day. Perhaps sleeping for 8 hours in a centrifuge + eating in centrifuge conditions - and it would also be useful for the toilet facilities - and for exercise - that's a lot of AG. Maybe that would be more than enough to stay healthy. If you make that hypothesis - well nobody has any experimental data to date that can prove you wrong, so it is an untested theory, and on the basis of what we know, the truth could be either way.
Perhaps when eventually someone does these experiments, maybe a private aerospace company, then everyone will be amazed that it took us several decades to test out this simple measure for counteracting effects of zero g. There is no way to know how well it will work until we try. The physics is easy to understand but a human body with all the interacting processes going on is far too complex to simulate adequately in computational physics modelling.
If that’s so - well what about lunar gravity? Do you need the ostoliths to be under full Earth g along the spin axis to get this conflict that leads to nausea, or will a sixth of Earth g also cause it? Again if you ask questions like that, nobody can give you a definitive answer. If they say something definitive sounding, they are just guessing as we have no data on it.
My rough diagram of a small version of this inside a space station is like this:
Sketch to show two possible orientations for a spinning hammock inside a large space station module. To prevent this from spinning up the station, then there'd be a counter rotating weight automatically spun in the opposite direction to the astronaut, perhaps attached to the "floor". The motors would not need to be powerful in zero g. It's like spinning a cycle wheel - easy to spin up, and you could stop it just by putting out your hand.
Note, you don’t need big heavy centrifuges to test it. We do on Earth because it has to be able to hold the weight along the axis as well as along the arm. But in space, your weight only acts along the cable, as for a swing or a hammock. Setting yourself in motion is like setting a swing in motion. You could do it by hand with a hammock attached to pivots as shown in the diagram, or you could get another astronaut to push you and keep pushing you from time to time as for Tim Peake, gentle pushes. Or you could have a small motor to do this for you.
For a very small one meter diameter centrifuge like this, you can achieve full g at 30 rpm and with the astronauts moving at only a little over 3 meters per second so it is very safe. That's around seven miles per hour - faster than a jog, but easy running speed so it's not that fast (a little faster than the average speed for the London marathon). For more about it see my Could Spinning Hammocks Keep Astronauts Healthy in Zero g?
On the Moon maybe they can be attached somewhat more like a carousel?
But of course on the Moon you’d be suspended almost horizontally for full g, in the weak gravity. Remember that if the ostolith conflict with the vestibular system doesn’t happen with the weak lunar gravity, you wouldn’t feel any dizziness or nausea at all. We just don’t know yet if you would on the Moon.
Solution for large diameter centrifuges on the Moon
For the larger diameter centrifuges, then simplest idea is to just build a train going round and round a circular track. Then there's no limit, you can have circular tracks kilometers in diameter if you so wish, either in the lunar caves or on the surface. Also you don't have to think of narrow carriages as on trains on Earth. As we saw in the section on Lunar railways, lunar gauges could be wide gauge, perhaps twice as wide as most track gauges, perhaps three meters between the tracks, or more. Your "carriages" could also be multistory, with no height restrictions, so in principle they could be as big as a 747 or larger.
If you use circular railways, you don't have any engineering problems of torque on a central axle or pivot. Whatever the diameter of the track, the force outwards is only your that exerted by the train itself and its passengers under 1 g. This is no more of a problem for wheels to support than a conventional train on Earth. This idea is often discussed online, but not so much in the academic literature. But there is a 1996 paper: Artificial Gravity Augmentation on the Moon and Mars
"One method of augmenting gravity is a extraterrestrial railroad. A vehicle on a circular track banked with respect to the horizon creates centripetal accelerations related to the speed of the vehicle and the diameter of the track. Incremental accentuation of gravity may be accomplished by switching the vehicle to a track of larger diameter and steeper bank. Rotation creates accelerations on the vestibular canals of the inner ear that will limit the angular velocity of the vehicle. Colonists would have the opportunity to work part of each day in simulated Earth gravity and easily access the planet's surface. The magnitude of gravity that will protect us is unknown, as is the frequency and duration of exposure. This must be investigated. An extraterrestrial railroad, as one solution to this problem, does not involve exotic technology and is readily expanded."
So the suggestion is that you have banked tracks for the train to run on. As you transition from lunar gravity to full gravity the train would move to steeper and steeper banked tracks so that the floor always feels level to the passengers. The transition would go in the opposite direction when the passengers want to leave the train, the train would move to the less steeply banked tracks first.
Another idea suggested in the forums is a tilting train:
A JR Hokkaido KiHa 283 series tilting DMU on a Super Hokuto limited express service on the Hakodate Main Line, photo by Japanese wikipedia user: 出々 吾壱
For full g it would need to be tilted by 80 degrees instead of the 8 degrees shown in in this photo. For large amounts of tilt, perhaps this would work best if the carriage is in an inside compartment only indirectly coupled to the outside while the train is moving. This idea could also be used with a smaller amount of tilt to keep the floor of a train level while transitioning between tracks with different degrees of bank, and then finally to a stop.
To deal with issues of friction between the trains and the tracks we can
In some ways it is better than for Earth, with no earthquakes, or weather hazards, no snow on the tracks or fallen leaves.
Also bear in mind that in a future where we can build large circular tracks like this, it's also gong to be easy to lay out large areas of solar panels on the surface and we can also design power storage during the lunar night, and by then we may have small nuclear power stations too. So, though it's not going to be as efficient as a spinning habitat in space which spins pretty much endlessly once you set it spinning, it's probably not going to be a huge power drain on a working habitat. See Power during the night.
SUMMARY
We might need nothing. We might need a short arm centrifuge, light construction, built like a swing or carousel, if very short arm then it’s moving only at 3 meters per second like a fast jog just breaking into a run. We might just need exercise facilities where we can do sports that involve cycling around a velodrome, or running round a small circular track just perhaps six meters diameter like Skylab. Or we might need to build a big construction such as a lunar maglev train on a circular track.
There is no way to know until we try.
NOT TIME TO DRAW UP DESIGNS FOR BIG SPINNING CONSTRUCTIONS ON THE MOON
But we might not need any of this. For all we know, astronauts will be in 100% good health on the Moon, even better health than on Earth. It’s not impossible. Certainly I think we shouldn’t devise any spinning habitats for the Moon except as a way to experiment, until we have experience of humans living and working there. As it is one possibility that we don’t even need them and that we do just fine in lunar g.
GROWING CROPS ON THE MOON
As for growing crops, then there’s every reason to suppose we can do it and lots of places we can build on the Moon.
An Astronaut Gardener On The Moon - Summits Of Sunlight And Vast Lunar Caves In Low Gravity
NO HURRY
Now I don’t think we should rush to settle the Moon as quickly as possible. It’s going to be a major issue to have millions of people with space technology living peacefully - a social rather than a technological issue. We can’t have wars in space in the conventional sense, because with spacecraft traveling at thousands of miles an hour and the fragile habitats and nowhere to survive except in a habitat or spacesuit, any “all out” war, especially with automated missiles, but even just with suicide bombing or simpler, just throwing stones at each other from passing spacecraft, would end quickly with everyone who was in space at the time dead.
I think we will have plenty to cope with if we have thousands of people in space. Let’s take it one step at a time.
Also nowhere is nearly as hospitable as Earth. The harshest deserts, Antarctica, or cities floating on the sea using only sea water and air in a minimal impact sustainable way - no fishing or exploitation of the sea in any way apart from the sea water - all of those are far far easier places to live than any space colony. Get many more people living there for much less cost and less use of Earth’s resources and less impact on Earth.
So I don’t see it as a way to expand the regions that we “just colonize” with no other reason to be there. But there can be many good reasons to have people on the Moon such as scientific research like Antarctica, commercial reasons (if that works out, a lot better case than Mars for sure) - I think actually that a lot of the mining if we have mining would be done using robots for economical reasons as they don’t need food or spacesuits or air or water - autonomous or controlled from Earth, but there may be some people needed in situ to maintain and overhaul them and for tele-operations.
Maybe tourism, adventure, retirement to the Moon for the wealthy (especially if it turns out to have health value for older people to live in low gravity conditions).
And maybe some people just trying to set up a colony / settlement. If so I think the lunar poles and the lunar caves are amongst the top spots to try in the solar system, because they are surprisingly advantageous, better than Mars in just about all the comparisons I tried. I don’t konw if it would work. But it could be worth a try.
The early habitats are bound to be harder to maintain. But if you can somehow make a major part of a lunar cave habitable, kilometers in diameter (as they may be in the low lunar gravity and possibly supported by the Grail data) and over 100 km long - that’s a lot of habitable volume. Once we have easy transport into space by whatever reason, if we do, and in situ mining on the Moon - it might then be possible to make an area of that habitable. It would be a bit like an O’Neil cylinder - pre-built. If then it can also be low maintenance, like a few hundred dollars per year per inhabitant, then once you have the place built, it might actually be easier to live in such a place than on Earth with its weather which you don’t have on the Moon.
I explore this in my An Astronaut Gardener On The Moon - Summits Of Sunlight And Vast Lunar Caves In Low Gravity
And the whole thing in a lot of detail in my
MOON FIRST Why Humans on Mars Right Now are Bad for Science.President Obama, if you love science, Please protect Mars life from contamination from Earth (I should change this title now that Trump is about to become president)
Both available to read free online and also on kindle.
This is the paper mentioned in the video, it works out the theoretical maximum height of a mountain, not taking into account any geological considerations such as how it could get to be so high or ...
(more)This is the paper mentioned in the video, it works out the theoretical maximum height of a mountain, not taking into account any geological considerations such as how it could get to be so high or depth of the crust supporting it. As an example at the end, they work out that a mountain made of granite with a base of around 1,000 km could be as much as 45 km high.
But they say it could be much higher if the mountain gets rapidly steeper as it gets higher, like the Eiffel tower.
Well first to believe in it you have to have no background in science or astronomy. You flunked physics at high school and have never had an interest in astronomy or paid much attention to the nigh...
(more)Well first to believe in it you have to have no background in science or astronomy. You flunked physics at high school and have never had an interest in astronomy or paid much attention to the night sky. Often they notice for the first time that the sun often lights up clouds on the other side of the sky from the sun, and that it rises in a different position on the horizon each day of the year and think these mean Nibiru is approaching. They don’t know how to find the pole star or what its significance is, because many of them believe that the Earth’s geographical poles have shifted, which would mean that Polaris would no longer be the pole star.
So - there are many people of course whose knowledge of science is at that level. It’s nothing to be ashamed of in my view. My knowledge of languages is at that level and of many other things. We can’t all be experts at everything :).
So then - that’s the ground for it. You have to be prone to believing in conspiracy theories, and that people in authority are likely to be lying, even a civilian space authority and the international astronomy union. Of course nowadays many people find all sorts of conspiracy theories believable so that’s not such a big barrier.
Also you can’t know how many people amateur and professional are involved in astronomy worldwide (tens of thousands of professional astronomers, hundreds of thousands of amateurs) because they generally believe that all astronomers are colluding together to hide this information and lying to them, at least to start with until they find out more. Again - well that ties in with the not knowing about astronomy bit. Most people just aren’t that interested in astronomy of course, just as I am not interested in train spotting, and don’t know such things.
Then - with that basis, the rest of it works rather like advertising. They see impressive seeming videos (if you don’t know any astronomy) with an authoritative sounding voice over by someone with a confident and firm voice. Stirring music. Dramatic images (as they seem to them anyway).
Then a lot of repetition. Try searching google for “Nibiru” to see how many sites there are presenting this stuff. May be the same people over and over, or a few people who are very prolific. Many are hoaxes and are financially driven. It’s become a whole small industry with people making money from selling bunkers to the super wealthy (who are just as gullible and easily conned of their money as everyone else), books, making numerous videos, and people who have found they can earn thousands of dollars a month per video channel from ad revenue by churning out similar videos or sometimes the identical video over and over with new dates saying Nibiru is about to hit Earth.
And there are lots of news sites that run this stuff. Especially the UK “red top tabloids” - and many other UK newspapers, even some that are quite respectable. They wouldn’t dream of running a fake obituary but just run this stuff based on nothing, even just a youtube video by an anonymous uploader, or in a recent example, three facebook comments were the basis for an entire story, the authors of the comments not identified, but they were quoted in the story. The bar of entry for a story about Nibiru is apalling.
And you find almost no debunking, and the articles that do are generally from 2012, though the Washington Post did recently do a Nibiru debunking article, kudos to them :).
So then - it’s like advertising, and propaganda and “brain washing” . Watch enough of this and you doubt your senses and come to believe the most extraordinary things for instance that we have two suns. Easily disproved on any sunny day by blocking out the sun with a finger and looking to left, right, above and below (be careful not to stare at the sun without blocking it out as it can damage your eyes and you don’t notice until much later).
This is one of the images shared that is meant to prove that we have two suns for the doubters (i.e. anyone with any common sense)
It’s an artist’s impression of the view from a planet orbiting a binary star. Artists are pretty good at photorealistic images and this is an example. Others include lens flares, offset lens reflections, and just light shining on clouds.
Also another reason they believe it is that they are given such simple instructions to “observe Nibiru”. They are told to take a photograph or look a the sky and see if you see anything bright apart from the Sun which you don’t understand. They are told, if you see that no matter where it is in the sky, north, south east, west, no matter what time of day - though usually sunrise or sunset - that it is “Nibiru”. So of course many people who have hardly paid any attention to the sky all their life start looking at it, and people who have never photographed the sun, start photographing it. And they get lens flares and offset lens reflections, see bright patches in the sky of clouds lit up by the sun, and they have never noticed anything like this before. So they get scared and think they have seen Nibiru and it is about to hit Earth. If they had been given the same instruction, but told that any bright object is Santa Claus, and were gullible enough to believe it, we’d get numerous “observations” of Santa.
Then remember a lot of those that are scared by it are very young. Often 14 upwards and sometimes much younger, 10, or even 5. So they just don’t know a lot about the world at that point, so much harder to assess a story like this or to assess its credibility especially if their parents or other adults are taking it seriously.
I’ve done a couple of petitions about it
Petition to Youtube to halt ads on Doomsday videos
Do look at some of the comments there also.
Do sign and share those petitions if you agree with them. Even though not many have signed them yet, I think everyone who does is helping - brings some attention to it, especially also if you share them.
I also do a blog debunking doomsday and write articles for Science20 from time to time to try to do my tiny bit to do something to help with all the fake Nibiru doomsday news that gets so much publicity in online UK tabloids and US TV channels like Coast to Coast - and yet the whole thing is just garbage, nonsense, BS, tosh, balderdash, whatever word you like to use.
And my online and kindle book: Doomsday Debunked which is doing its bit on amazon, get occasional sales. Hopefully sometimes someone might notice it while searching for a book about Nibiru on Amazon amongst all the books that say that it is real, and find out more. All sales go to international suicide prevention charities, at present Befriender’s international.
First, this isn’t going to happen - comets so large don’t hit the inner solar system any more. The most recent large impact crater of that size on Mars is the Hellas Basin. Nothing so large for nea...
(more)First, this isn’t going to happen - comets so large don’t hit the inner solar system any more. The most recent large impact crater of that size on Mars is the Hellas Basin. Nothing so large for nearly 4 billion years anywhere on Mars, Mercury, Moon, what we have of Earth or Venus.
If you could somehow add lots of water and CO2 to Mars it wouldn’t make it habitable for humans though. Even if you could somehow copy all of Earth’s atmosphere to Mars, the planet would be far too cold because it gets half the amount of sunlight that Earth does. It is on the outermost edge of our Sun’s habitable zone. It’s a mystery, how it managed to have liquid water in the past. Two main hypotheses there
Ideas for terraforming Mars involve megatechnology all the way through into the foreseeable future for as long as it stays habitable - either planet sized thin film mirrors in orbit, or else producing greenhouse gases, with mining of cubic kilometers of fluorite ore every century, and using power equivalent to 500 nuclear power plants to continuously make greenhouse gases. Otherwise it would be like Antarctica or the high Arctic all over. Too cold for trees. Seas frozen over if it had seas. That’s even with a pure carbon dioxide atmosphere.
It also has just over third of Earth’s gravity which means you need 26 tons of atmosphere per square meter instead of ten tons, to get Earth normal atmospheric pressure (that’s tons of mass, of course it is ten tons by weight in the Mars lower gravity).
Also once you have a carbon dioxide atmosphere then if you use photosynthesis, with half the amount of sunlight of Earth, well to turn carbon dioxide to oxygen, you have to take all that carbon out of the atmosphere. Build meters thick layers of organics all over Mars taken out of the atmosphere using life processes. That would take about 100,000 years on Mars according to Chris McKay, to have an atmosphere humans can breathe - taking account for both the reduced sunlight and the need to have more oxygen in the atmosphere by mass per square meter to make the air breathable for humans.
There aren’t any comets with oxygen in them ,just CO2 . They also have methane, some of it, but methane wouldn’t stay long in the atmosphere without some process to keep it there.
If you overcome those problems, then it will lose its atmosphere over geological timescales. First, it has no continental drift. This means that as carbon dioxide gets taken up by oceans, there is no way to restore it back into the atmosphere again. This is a very slow cycle but over a timescale of about 100 - 200 million years on Earth, all our CO2 would be gone without continental drift. It all gets locked up in rocks such as limestone. No CO2 means no plants. The Carbon Cycle. Mars enthusiasts have ideas of using microbes to digest the limestone and return the CO2 to the atmosphere, but that’s just pen and paper sketching, it’s not a worked out slow carbon cycle.
Then Mars has no magnetic field. This means that there is nothing to protect water vapour in the upper atmosphere from being split apart by ionizing radiation. Timescale unsure but Mars probably had a thick atmosphere in the past with lots of water and most of the water is gone, and we don’t know for sure how and where but probably a lot of it was lost from the atmosphere. So - maybe on a similar timescale of hundreds of millions of years, it loses its water.
Now - that might not seem such a big deal. Our civilization will probably be long gone. But if there are intelligent beings on Mars by then, humans or other creatures, well we are only separated by time and I think we have a responsibility for them.
Also - as the Sun warms up in the future, for a while Mars will have perfect temperatures for habitability without need for greenhouse gases or mirrors. That might be the perfect time to terraform it. If we do a terraforming now that messes up the planet, it might not be available when it is really needed in the future. I think that is kind of relevant because Elon Musk for instance talks about going to Mars to become interplanetary. Well there are no immediate threats to Earth that could make it as uninhabitable as Mars - even a terraformed Mars.
So the only things that will definitely make Earth uninhabitable are far future hundreds of millions of years in the future events like the Sun getting too hot. That’s something we could deal with using huge shades or actually moving Earth. But we might decide to colonize Mars at that point -if we don’t move Earth then it becomes more habitable than Earth briefly as the Sun gets hotter.
Do it now and we may be denying the chance to do it then in the future. So if he is really concerned about future extinction events in the very remote future like that, leave Mars alone. It’s very unlikely that we know what to do now to make it more habitable half a billion years later when we need it.
While if concerned about near future events, there is just no way anything can make Earth less habitable than Mars. Here is where we make our stand. A future with a habitable Earth is what we need to aim for.
There are many issues with sending humans to Mars as quickly as possible - I think myself not least, the issue that many raise, that it would mess up our search for life on the planet, muddy the waters. Why rush with all our microbes (they are the problem, not us) to the place in the solar system where they can cause most havoc for science? Where they might mean we are unable to make the next great breakthrough in biology - it could be as significant as that on Mars. A precious exoplanet, with maybe extraterrestrial microbes in our own solar system.
Terraforming is a fun idea. Well worth studying and tells us a lot about Earth and exoplanets.
But what we can do right now is paraterraforming, covering surfaces with greenhouses until the whole surface is a giant greenhouse. And before that, make small self sustained habitats. But we don’t need Mars for that. We can do that in free space, use materials from an asteroid to build a Stanford Torus type habitat spinning around the asteroid as a hub to generate artificial gravity - or convert the probably vast lunar caves into habitats - may be 100 km long and kilometers in diameter. Or build habitats on the lunar poles close to ice and with 24/7 sunlight.
That’s the plan of the ESA and I think it’s the best starting point. Because the Moon is so close to Earth and it actually has many benefits for habitability.
One of the habitats for ESA’s planned “lunar village” at the poles - envisioned as a collaboration like the ISS - but with participants having separate habitats there grouped together much like a village. It is getting a lot of support in the international community, except for in the US. Will be interesting to see what happens there now that Trump is president (Obama was dead set on going to Mars and told NASA to ignore the Moon. Before him Bush said go to the Moon, so it flip flops between presidents quite often).
But there’s no rush. No panic. If we have 1000 people in space that would be a huge change. Let’s see how that works first. Millions in space - well that means that you could have anyone in space, can’t keep it to the “good guys” or harmless scientists and tourist. The likes of ISS and North Korea developing in space - how can you stop that happening? You could end up with a war in space and with spaceships traveling at tens of thousands of miles an hour, and the habitats as fragile as eggshells, and nowhere to survive if your habitat is destroyed, then I think a space war would be over quickly with no survivors remaining in space.
We have to find some other way of dealing with things before we can have millions in space - it’s a possibility for a post warfare society I think. And I think that future is a possible future, we could get there. Post warfare doesn’t mean no competition, it just means you solve issues in other ways. But we aren’t there yet, and until we reach a post warfare society at least in space, I just don’t see how you can have millions there.
It’s also very inhospitable. The coldest driest place on Earth is far far more hospitable. So is the summit of Mount Everest. A mountain 30 kilometers high on Earth would still be far more hospitable than Mars. And indeed in many ways it turns out the Moon is more hospitable than Mars too, and it has the benefit that it is really close to Earth and there is some prospect of commercial value too. There are many possible exports from the Moon. Whether any of them will pan out, I don’t know but they do have advocates and enthusiasts who think they will do and write books about the commercial case for the Moon. Typically these books have many chapters outlining ways in which they think entrepeneurs can earn money from the Moon.
Nobody writes similar books about the commercial case for Mars. The “Case for Mars” by Robert Zubrin has one brief and rather unconvincing chapter on commerce. Elon Musk and Zubrin both think that the main way Mars will pay for itself is by sale of intellectual property like publishing rights, patents to inventions and so on, claiming that Mars colonists will be so much more inventive than everyone else that there will be a huge net export of discoveries from Mars which will pay for everything easily. I find that unconvincing myself.
There are other ideas for Mars exports but they have to be very valuable to be worth doing. And the most valuable export - scientific understanding of the origins of life - may be destroyed by rushing to send humans there as quickly as possible.
See also my new online and kindle book:
If Humans Touch Mars - Like the Lascaux Story - Another Tale of Human Missteps?
MOON FIRST Why Humans on Mars Right Now are Bad for Science.President Obama, if you love science, Please protect Mars life from contamination from Earth (I should change this title now that Trump is about to become president)
Summary, most likely no effect. At most, could have an effect on our ozone layer. The danger is from UV light. Our atmosphere shields us from the ionizing radiation, same mass as ten meters thickness of water.
...
(more)Summary, most likely no effect. At most, could have an effect on our ozone layer. The danger is from UV light. Our atmosphere shields us from the ionizing radiation, same mass as ten meters thickness of water.
Even if the burst originates as close as a few thousand light years away in our own galaxy, the only effects would be increased UV from an ozone hole, and though it might cause some extinctions (jury is out on that), it would be easy for humans to protect against. As for WR104, at one point they thought there was a chance that it was pointed at us. New data suggests that it is tilted away from us at an angle of 30° - 40° (possibly as much as 45°) which would mean it would miss.
IN DETAIL
DETAILS
First gamma ray bursts are rare. They come in two forms, the long bursts and the short bursts. Long bursts come from supernovae, but only 1% of them cause these bursts, so they are very rare. They are associated with the very most brightest of supernovae (hyperonva). Short bursts may come from colliding neutron stars. For details see The biggest explosions in the Universe. The beam is tightly focused in opposite directions so has to be beamed directly at us, so the chance of us seeing one that is focused on us is low. Typically the beam is focused to within a few degrees. For more details about them and the theory of how they are formed: Gamma Ray Bursts (GRBs)
We wouldn't be able to predict a gamma ray burst, as the gamma rays arrive at the speed of light from thousands of light years away, but the chance of it happening is tiny.
If it did happen, then it is a short lived event, from seconds up to hours at most (but the very long events are very unusual).
Gamma ray bursts are very focused, with beams in opposite directions, and would need to be pointed directly at us to cause harm - which is very unlikely. We have seen many gamma ray bursts in distant galaxies, but most are over a billion light years away, which shows how rare they are.
Short bursts are caused by colliding neutron stars. The beams they produce are so narrow that we only spot 0.4% of them. The bursts are so bright we can spot them billions of light years away and most of the ones spotted are over a billion light years away.Gamma ray bursts and pencil-thin jets
NASA gave a research announcement for a paper on How Deadly Would a Nearby Gamma Ray Burst Be? Paper itself is here. Some online sites reported this paper incorrectly as saying that the researchers had shown they were more hazardous than expected. Actually their conclusion was exactly the opposit eof that - they proved that they are less hazardous than expected.
This NASA image illustrates the effects of a gamma ray burst on the Earth’s atmosphere, artist’s impression. Only one side is affected because the burst is over by the time the other side of Earth comes into view.
Our atmosphere shields us from the worst effects. It’s equivalent to ten meters of water shielding us from cosmic radiation and gamma rays. So you don’t need to worry about direct effects of all that radiation - it just won’t reach us (same is true for a nearby supernova).
Most of the effect would be on the ozone layer creating a hole and leading to increase UV light until the hole heals. This increase in UV can then break up oxygen atoms at ground level and so cause increased ozone levels at ground level - so the effect is less in the upper atmosphere but more at ground level.
Shows how UV in the upper layer can cause Ozone smog at ground level
The next graph shows the output of their simulation. Altitude vertically, time in days horizontally. The red shows depletion of ozone in the upper atmosphere, and the blue shows increases of ozone in the lower atmosphere.
The gamma ray burst not only reduces the amount of ozone in the upper atmosphere. It also creates ozone depleting nitrogen oxides. They took the example of a gamma ray burst which hits the south pole most severely, as that has down drafts of air constantly. Those would bring the nitrogen oxides down to the lower atmosphere which is why you see the red regions descending with time. This causes a series of pulses of ozone depletion in the upper atmosphere which then leads to increases of ozone at sea level as the red regions let more UV through to the lower atmosphere. The model assumed a 100kJ/m2 burst from the direction of the South Pole, for a gamma ray burst within a few thousand light years of Earth (that’s very close compared to the diameter of the galaxy of 100,000 light years).
So could this raise the ozone levels enough to be harmful to life? The answer from this study was no. A very nearby gamma ray bursts could raise the ozone levels at ground level temporarily to 10 ppm. To be harmful to animal life it would need to reach 30 ppm. It is also not enough to be harmful to ocean life. Even if all the ozone created at ground level got absorbed in the sea, it would not be enough to be harmful to ocean life. So this disproves the hypothesis that a gamma ray burst could be the cause of the late Ordovician mass-extinction.
This was falsely reported on some news sites as proving that hypothesis that the gamma ray burst caused the late Ordovician mass-extinction. As you can see, that is the exact opposite of what they actually did prove..
However the paper was just about the effects of ozone. UV light remains a hazard after a gamma ray burst and could cause extinctions of species (not humans).
NEARBY GAMMA RAY BURST CANDIDATE
Are there any nearby stars that could go supernova and send a gamma ray burst towards us? Well there is this one WR104, which is about 7,500 light years from Earth. That makes it close enough for that 100 kJ type blast that could damage our ozone layers and it is a “Wolf Rayat star” which is likely to go supernova in the next few hundred thousand years.
Of all the stars of that type we know, it’s the only one that we seem to see more or less facing along its axis. So it could be pointed straight at us. The dust is lit up in a spiral pattern and it is carried around in synchrony with its companion star with a rotation period of 220 days.
More detailed picture here:
It looks as if it is facing us nearly face on. But spectroscopic observations of the star suggest it’s axis is at an angle of 30° - 40° (possibly as much as 45°) which would mean it would miss. See WR 104 Won't Kill Us After All - Universe Today
Though this sparked newspaper headlines about it killing us all, the thing to bear in mind is that even if we did get a direct hit, we’d be protected by our atmosphere and the effects would be on the ozone layer mainly and increasing UV until the ozone layer healed.
MORE ABOUT THE EFFECT OF A NEARBY GAMMA RAY BURST
Our atmosphere would shield us from most of it except some strong UV light due to depletion of the ozone layer. You'd be shielded from that just by standing in a shadow or shading yourself from the light any way you like. So, humans could shield against it easily, just use more sunblock when out of doors until the layer heals. Other creatures of course couldn’t use sunblock and might be more affected by it.
The oxides of nitrogen produced in the upper atmosphere are not concentrated enough to have an effect at ground level and this new research shows that ozone levels at ground level are not high enough to be hazardous even for a very close gamma ray burst. So the main effects are from the UV. So if a gamma ray burst causes extinctions then it would be due to the increased levels of UV light at ground level until the ozone hole heals. But this is something humans can protect ourselves against easily. More about its effects in this paper
Researchers reported in 2013 that Earth might have been hit by a Gamma-ray burst in 8th Century (paper: Effects of Gamma Ray Bursts in Earth’s Biosphere) but this would seem a bit unlikely considering how rare they are. Later research that same year (2013) found that the increased levels of Carbon 14 and Beryllium 10 in AD 775 could be explained by a solar flare instead, see The AD775 cosmic event revisited: the Sun is to blame
A nearby gamma ray burst, only a few thousand light years away, would hit one hemisphere of Earth with a short but intense blast of bright light, X-rays and gamma rays. But our atmosphere blocks these high energy photons, so much so that astronomers have to use space telescopes above the atmosphere to observe them.
Some of the UV light would get through the atmosphere, a brief fraction of a second burst of light, up to ten s of seconds for a long burst. But that seems unlikely to cause a biological catastrophe though some creatures would be affected.
Though the authors don’t say, human eyes are easily damaged by UV light so probably anyone looking at the flash at the time would be blinded, get a big dark spot form in their retina of dead cells, just as you would do if you stared at the sun through a telescope. But then - you might blink or shut your eyes automatically when you see such a bright flash of light, and UV light is blocked by the human eyelids, and if you are looking in a different direction or in a shadow from the burst you won’t be affected.
The main effects even of a very nearby gamma ray burst are
Of those, there isn’t enough nitric acid rain to harm organisms and the nitrate might actually act as a fertilizer for some plants.
The cooling is not that strong, reduction in 1% for some years. Unless the climate was close to some “tipping point” it’s not likely to have a significant effect.
The main effect is from ozone depletion. This would increase the amount of DNA damage from UV light up to sixteen times for a few months, and up to five to seven times the usual levels for several years.
Humans could easily protect ourselves. It’s only light and you could use barrier creams, broad rimmed hats, and clothes covering your skin etc for a few months or years to protect yourself from the UV until it returns to normal levels.
These effects seem too small to do much, so it’s a challenge to understand how even a nearby gamma ray burst just a few light years away could lead to mass extinctions. This is on going research. One idea is that perhaps there would be a knock on effect for instance, from impacts on phytoplankton. They account for half of CO2 fixation and oxygen production, so perhaps even a small effect on them could change the climate significantly. See Gamma-Ray Bursts as a Threat to Life on Earth
CONSPIRACY THEORY “PREDICTIONS” OF GAMMA RAY BURSTS
Sometimes conspiracy theory videos or websites claim that scientists have predicted a future gamma ray burst for some particular date that will devastate life on Earth. If you see something like this, you can be sure that they are an unreliable source for astronomy.
Most gamma ray bursts observed are over a billion light years away and we haven’t yet seen one in our galaxy. These bursts are very rare indeed so it is an unlikely scenario.
Also, they can’t be predicted as they are due to distant events which we can’t observe in enough detail to predict - and it doesn’t seem likely that we can predict supernovae or gamma ray bursts for precise dates in the near future. At the moment astronomers at best could say something like “this star may go supernova some time in the next few million years and if so there is a tiny chance it sends a gamma ray burst along its rotation axis” (most supernovae probably don’t produce gamma ray bursts at all).
PROBABILITY OF A GAMMA RAY BURST WITHIN 50 LIGHT YEARS (SAY)
The nearest likely gamma ray burst in the last billion years is 1000 parsecs away. But could we have a really close one, as close as say 50 light years away? Gamma ray bursts happen every 10,000 to a million years in a typical galaxy. The volume of the Milky Way, our galaxy, is roughly 8 trillion cubic light years and it has has 400 billion stars approx. (going by the higher estimates here).
The volume of space within, say, 50 light years is about 500,000 light years. So you’d expect it to contain 500,000 * 400 billion / (8 trillion) or around 25,000 stars.
Or for 20 light years, 33,510 cubic light years, then you get 33,510 * 400 billion / (8 trillion) = 1675 stars. We actually have probably around 150 celestial objects including white and brown dwarfs. Stars within 20 light-years. So that’s over estimating by an order of magnitude or so as we live far out in the thinner outskirts of the galaxy.
So anyway let’s overestimate throughout for a rough back of the envelope type calculation. So 25,000 stars out of 400 billion, and assume a gamma ray burst every 10,000 years and one in 100 of those (say) is pointed towards us. So that makes it a gamma ray burst pointed towards us and within 50 light years every (400 billion / 25,000) * 10,000 years, or every 160 billion years. Remember that this overestimates the number of stars near to us by an order of magnitude, so it’s probably more like once every trillion years or so. So such a nearby gamma ray burst seems very unlikely.
Even at 50 light years, we’d be protected from most of the damaging radiation by the thickness of our atmosphere. It’s equivalent in mass to a ten meter depth of water. It would be rather similar to a nearby supernova. It’s too unlikely to get much attention in papers on gamma ray bursts, but there are estimates of the effects for a supernova. See What’s a safe distance between us and an exploding star? And for more details, the paper here: Could a nearby supernova explosion have caused a mass extinction?
They find that a supernova within 32 light years (ten parsecs) would not heat up Earth significantly, would not be bright enough to harm the ecology through the light alone. In the year after the event so you’d get as much ionizing radiation as you get normally in between a decade and a century. So significant but it doesn’t seem to be enough to be devastating.
It seems likely to be similar for gamma ray bursts, so the main effects would be on the ozone layer and on nitric acid rain - but we don’t need to look into this any more I think as the event is so very improbable.
WHY DO MANY PEOPLE WHO ANSWER THIS QUESTION SAY THAT WE’D BE TOAST?
I think many of the stories that circulate just ignore the effect of the Earth’s atmosphere. It’s equivalent to ten meters of water which is enough to block out most radiation. Also they forget about how rare they are. Typically they will be thousands of light years away from Earth, happen only a few times in a galaxy and the galaxy is 100,000 light years in diameter.
So basically they do back of the envelope calculations rather than reading the scientific research papers on the subject. It’s understandable that they forget about our atmosphere so easily. It doesn’t feel as if it is so heavy. The pressure is equalized inside and out. A bit like the way fish swim in the sea, we breathe the air and have no idea how much weight of air there is above us because we have the same amount of pressure outwards too and are in equilibrium with it.
When you drink water with a straw what actually happens is that you create a reduced pressure at the top of the straw and the weight of the atmosphere pushes the water up the straw into your mouth. If you had a perfect vacuum then you could suck water up 10.3 meters. So the weight of the atmosphere is the same as the weight of 10.3 meters thickness of water. Every square meter of the Earth’s surface has 10.3 metric tons of atmosphere above it.
Here is a video showing how you can suck water up to several meters through a straw, six meters, but not quite 10.3 meters - because you can’t create a perfect vacuum. Anyway - at the end where it shows them trying to suck the water up to the top of a cliff - the atmosphere above us is equivalent in mass to a layer of water the height of that cliff.
That’s what they tend to forget.
So they are right, there’s no warning, but you aren’t toast. Indeed you’d not notice the event itself at all except as a very bright flash - good idea to close your eyes if that happens because the UV light could make you blind.
The effects of a nearby gamma ray burst or supernova, even if it is as close as just a few light years away would be just on the upper atmosphere on the ozone layer leading to more UV radiation - an ozone hole - and possibly nitric acid rain. The ionizing radiation effects are not significant.
SUMMARY
Perhaps Gamma ray bursts could have caused some mass extinctions in the past - but so far we don't have anything that is confirmed to have been caused by a gamma ray burst. It is a minority view hypothesis for the Ordovician–Silurian extinction events - if so this study suggests that they couldn’t have caused this extinction through ozone smog at ground level. That leaves the UV light but it’s hard to see that causing the extinctions to such an extent either. Paper about biological effects of gamma ray bursts here
You don’t need to worry that a gamma ray burst could make humans extinct. Though it could be a nuisance for us. Thankfully they are very very rare. Like supernovae, they can’t be predicted because they happen as a result of very distant astronomical events that we are nowhere near being able to observe with enough precision to predict such a thing.
We can identify stars that are going to go supernova in the next few million years, but that’s the most we can do by way of prediction. Of those only 1% would produce gamma ray bursts and of those, only a few typically would be beamed our way. So very very rare. The gamma ray bursts from colliding neutron stars are also very rare.
See also:
This originated in my answer to What would happen if a strong gamma ray burst were to hit the Earth? Any sort of technology that would withstand its effects? Would the burst affect the entire planet, or is there a chance parts of the planet would be affected to a lesser degree?
And this is from my Debunked: A gamma ray burst could make humans extinct
I’ve done a collection of many of my posts there as a book available to read online for free, also on Kindle
Doomsday Debunked (free online book - also available on kindle here: Doomsday Debunked (kindle) - all proceeds from the kindle edition go to international suicide prevention charities - at present to Befrienders International.
Summary - No, it is not. How could we have been contacted by ancient astronauts and not learnt simple concepts in maths that we start to teach children at age 5? Or learnt about basic ideas in astr...
(more)Summary - No, it is not. How could we have been contacted by ancient astronauts and not learnt simple concepts in maths that we start to teach children at age 5? Or learnt about basic ideas in astronomy that they would be very familiar with, such as the craters on the Moon, rings of Saturn etc.
First, Nibiru is nonsense See my answer to How do we know Nibiru isn't real?
The Sumerians used “Nibiru” to refer to the pole star, Jupiter, and some other things. So if we go by what they meant by the word, then We don’t know of any ancient ones living in Jupiter or on any of its moons. The pole star is 433 light years away and is not about to fly past our sun.
Sitchin’s “Nibiru” is fiction. He predicted it at various dates, not sure of the details but in the far future, 80 years from now or some such. But his planet’s orbit is unstable. It would have been expelled from the solar system, hit another planet or messed up the other planets’ orbits within a million years so well over 4 billion years ago. Hard to say if there ever was a planet om such an orbit, it’s long gone, billions of years ago, long before the dinosaurs, long before even the Moon formed and before the Earth’s oceans formed.
You may though be referring to the 2017 prophecy by David Meade, which is probably what you have in mind as many papers have run it recently and I get asked lots of questions about it.
This is also nonsense. It is a gathering together of nearly every unverified urban myth about Nibiru, and he hasn’t done any fact checking at all. He seems to think that there are objects in the night sky that can only be seen from a plane flying high up in the sky above South America. That makes no sense. If there is something approaching Earth from the South Pole it is visible from the entire southern hemisphere every clear night. He thinks IRAS found “Nibiru” in 1983 - false. He thinks the Vatican has built a multi-meter telescope - false. Some details here: Debunked: Nibiru will hit or fly past Earth in September 2017 - David Meade’s “prophecy”
In summary: if a site has the word Nibiru - if it is about ancient Sumerian they mean either Jupiter or the pole star or an ancient Sumerian deity or various other things, but not an extra planet.
WHY WE COULDN’T HAVE BEEN CONTACTED BY ANCIENT ASTRONOMERS ANYWAY
Remember this is from long ago, when they didn’t even have the maths to express an arbitrary ratio like 5/7. Their maths was impressive for their day, but they lacked many simple mathematical concepts that we start to teach children at around age five or six. Though those concepts seem so simple to us, they are the hard earned result of many generations, thousands of years of work by past mathematical genuises.
It’s just unbelievable that we were contacted by ancient astronauts and even if we were their slaves, that we didn’t learn how to use fractions, or negative numbers or zero, from them. Never mind things like knowing about Saturn’s rings, or Jupiter’s moons, or the craters on the Moon, or basic ideas of science and astronomy such as that Earth orbits the sun, or that matter is made of atoms, existence of electrons and nucleus, or that meteorites come from space rather than from volcanoes or stones lifted up by winds, etc etc.
I think there is no evidence at all of any ancient knowledge from extra terrestrials. Though lots of ancient wisdom in philosophy and understanding of human nature and of ways to work with the natural world, an ecological type of wisdom etc. But their best scientists and astronomers and mathematicians just hadn’t got many of even the simplest of modern concepts in those subjects.
There are many images often shared as “Ancient astronauts “
But all I see there are figures with hoods or halos which may mark them out as important figures or who knows what. It’s hardly an accurate representation of a spacesuit :).
Doesn’t much resemble a spaceship to me. Out of thousands of drawings from the past, we are bound to come across one or two that accidentally resemble things that we have today.
Suppose we sent them a drawing of this, back in time somehow:
What do you think they’d read it as?
of course!
Just as we read their figures as astronauts in spacesuits, they’d read our styluses and phones as clay tablets with clay styluses.
We always interpret things in terms of our culture when there is some resemblance.
See also Analogy of an African elephant with Planet X / Nibiru
Many of the Nibiru website authors claim to be very knowledgeable about astronomy. It is easy to test though, and find out that they don't understand this stuff. Here are some things they may say w...
(more)Many of the Nibiru website authors claim to be very knowledgeable about astronomy. It is easy to test though, and find out that they don't understand this stuff. Here are some things they may say which immediately show they are mistaken, don’t have the most basic understanding of astronomy, and don't check their sources.
This rather dramatic image has gone the rounds a bit and been posted as a photograph of a double sunset in China. It's actually an artist's impression from NASA of a double sunset over an alien planet.
If someone tells you that we have two suns - then you know they are speaking BS. Click away as that means they don’t have the first clue about astronomy.
It is dead easy to check that we have only one sun. Hold a finger in front of it (don’t stare at the Sun as you won’t know if your eyes get damaged) With the sun blocked, do you see a second sun to either side, or above or below? No! Therefore we have only one sun. It really is as easy as that to debunk this one.
If anyone says any of these things and claims to be an expert in astronomy - that’s like someone telling you that Usain Bolt is a top seeded tennis player and won Wimbledeon and then claiming to be an expert on sport.
That wouldn’t lead you to suddenly wonder if he really is a tennis player and wonder if all the Olympic finals were faked to make him out to be a sprinter. You’d just look at the person who said this askance, or indeed aghast, and then from then on you’d probably never trust anything they say on matters of sport.
Usain Bolt winning the 100 meters in Bejing in 2008. If someone told you he was a top seeded tennis player - that would just lead you to treat that person as someone who doesn’t know what they are talking about in matters of sport.
So - it’s like that if you have even a basic understanding of astronomy and someone says any of those things I listed, or posts them on a website, or a youtube video, you immediately know that this person knows nothing at all about astronomy. They know as much about astronomy as the person who said that Usain Bolt was a tennis player knows about sport.
There are many other things they say that are immediate giveaways that they don't have the first clue about astronomy. Indeed if an article claims to be astronomical and uses the words Nibiru or Hercobulus or Wormwood, then unless it is a debunking site, that is a giveaway sign that the author knows nothing of modern astronomy. But what I've listed there already deals with 99% of them probably. That is except for the ones that have no astronomy and just base their prophecies on miracles and the Bible or such like.
If anyone says any of those things, they don't understand astronomy, just click away. See also my Debunking: You can’t trust anyone except the Nibiru people - everyone else is a paid shill of the government or in some other way motivated to propogate falsehoods
WHY ASTRONOMERS KNOW FOR SURE THAT NIBIRU IS NUTS (IF THEY HAVE HEARD OF IT AT ALL)
Nibiru is just an internet myth / hoax. There is no genuine astronomy behind it. They quote lots of astronomical news stories but they misunderstand them.
The idea of a planet in a 3600 year orbit or a 360 year orbit that crosses the paths of all the gas giants is an astronomical nonsense, BS.
Here are some of the absurdities
MORE ABOUT WHY NIBIRU’S ORBIT IS UNSTABLE
The Nibiru orbit is unstable and would not last as long as a million years in our solar system because it crosses the paths of four gas giants Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune all with different orbital periods. It's like rope skipping
Missing a planet on every orbit is like jumping a rope. You can do it if there is only one planet to miss each time. Pluto does that with Neptune, it goes inside Neptune's orbit every time it is closest to the sun, but that's no problem because it is in a resonance with Neptune and just like someone rope skipping - whenever they land on the ground the rope is not there so they don't get tangled up in it. Similarly every time Pluto gets closest to the sun, Neptune is not there and is elsewhere in its orbit so no problem.
But now imagine you have to skip four ropes simultaneously, you have to jump in a regular fashion (because orbits repeat exactly) and those four ropes are being turned at four different speeds with no resonances between them. That would be impossible. Similarly it is impossible for Nibiru to keep missing all four gas giants on every orbit for long. It can't keep that up for as long as a million years. Our solar system is over 4 billion years old. So such an orbit is impossible.
PLANETS BEYOND NEPTUNE
Astronomers do often hypothesize planets that orbit beyond Neptune. They call all these planets “planet X” where the X there doesn’t stand for 10, it stands for unknown, X as in unknown quantity. Pluto was called planet X before they discovered it,
So, if you see a story about “planet X” then it means they don’t know if it exists or not. It’s just a hypothesis.
The Nibiru people seem to think that all these hypothetical planets are real planets.
Then they also ignore all the parameters in the hypothesis. Scientists publish a paper saying there might be a brown dwarf that orbits 1.5 light years away from Earth. (That’s the idea of Nemesis, which is now pretty much disproved after the Wise infrared survey didn’t find it, and would have found a brown dwarf unless it was unusually cold).
The Nibiru people then skim read this paper and conclude that it proves that there is a planet called Nibiru in a 3600 year orbit that comes into the inner solar system and is already in the inner solar system and about to fly past Earth or hit it a few months into the future or a few weeks into the future.
They don’t seem to see the discrepancies between what the scientists say and what they are saying.
They behave like script writers for a movie.
If you make a movie, your ideas don’t have to make scientific sense, they just have to seem plausible enough for most of the audience to be able to suspend disbelief. Even scientists can enjoy movies like that, I like Star Trek and Doctor Who though much of what they say just makes no scientific sense at all.#
REAL LIFE IS NOT A MOVIE SCRIPT
But it doesn’t work in real life. In real life and astronomy the ideas have to make sense and the Nibiru ones don’t.
BIZARRE INCONSISTENT IDEAS
They say really bizarre things. They think that a planet in a 3600 year orbit can stay behind the sun all the way through its orbit. The sun goes through twelve constellations every year. Jupiter goes through one of the zodiacal constellations each year. A planet in a 3600 year orbit would go through them even more slowly. From that it’s easy to see that it’s impossible for a planet in a long period orbit to “hide behind the sun”. But they don’t seem to be able to understand this.
They believe, many of them, that the Earth’s poles have shifited. You just need to go out any starry night, locate the pole star, go out an hour or two later and check that it is the only star that hasn’t shifted and you debunk that idea with your own eyes. Due North still points towards the pole star. They can’t see this.
They also believe we have two suns and that this second sun appears in photographs take in a cell phone camera. It is so easy to debunk this. that just about anyone will just LOL if you say we have two suns, except the Nibiru people.
On any sunny day block out the sun with your finger. Do you see a second sun? (Don’t stare at the sun itself as your eyes can be damaged and you feel no pain as you have no pain receptors in your retina and effects can happen much later like hours later you start to lose your sight)
I find it incredible that anyone even gives this a moment of thought, whether or not we have one sun or two.
IT’S LIKE PROPOGANDA
But I’ve come to understand how it works I think. It’s like propoganda. If you watch lots of videos and read lots of stories then you come to believe it through repetition, if the videos and stories seem impressive to you. Much as people come to beleive in propoganda. Also a bit like the way advertising works.
For this to happen you have to have no understanding of physics or astronomy, but there are many people who flunked physics at school, and indeed why should everyone understand physics :). I’m not good at languages and have no idea about how baseball or american soccer works.
RESPONSIBILITY OF JOURNALISTS
So I think that youtube videos and newspaper reporters are part of what leads people to get so scared about things that if they could relate to their own common sense, they would see are nonsense.
I’ve done a couple of petitions on Change.org
Youtube: Petition to Youtube to Halt Ads on Doomsday Videos
Petition: Let's End Dramatized Reporting Of "Doomsday" Stories - The Vulnerable Get Suicidal
Do sign and share, it may help.
OBJECTS THAT CAN HIT EARTH
As for other objects that could hit Earth, well we have a survey of all the NEOs of 10 kilometers upwards and know their orbits well, and none of them can hit Earth before 2100. We could be hit by a comet but that’s now a 1 in 100 million probability, can be 99.999999% sure it won’t happen this century, and we’d be able to track it for at least a year and probably much longer on its way in if it was a large comet like that.
It is possible for a 1 kilometer object to hit Earth with only a few weeks of warning as though we know 90% of those, that leaves 10% of them still to find. We will have 99% by the late 2020s and are finding one of them every month at present.
An object that large is large enough to cause a tsunami, or to have serious effects on land, and put enough dust into the atmosphere to have some global effects. If we found such an object headed our way we’d need to evacuate the impact zone and couldn’t do much to deflect it at such late notice.
But this is very very unlikely. After all it has never happened in recorded human history and is no more likely to happen in this century than any other. Indeed is less likely because we have found 90% and they are not headed our way so the known probability of it happening is a tenth of what it was before we found those 90% of them. So we can be more confident that it won’t happen than anyone in any previous century already. By the 2020s we will be a hundred times more confident than we could be e.g. last century. Unless we find one headed our way of course, in which case it’s most likely to do several flybys first so we can deflect it, easy to do if it has a flyby of Earth.
Can’t say it is impossible but it’s very unlikely, and ordinary things like traffic accidents or health issues are far more significant. Even being killed by lightning or a tornado is more likely than being killed by an asteroid.
But we can do something about it. For half a billion dollars we can build a space telescope to do an infrared survey from inside of Earth’s orbit close to Venus to find most of the objects down to 20 meters within a decade.
Sentinel telescope developed by the B612 foundation. They have not yet managed to find enough funds to complete it although they did raise many millions of dollars. They were going to partner with NASA but they pulled out due to lack of funding. Any major technological country world-wide could fund this and hardly notice the effect on their defence budget.
It would sit inside of Earth close to Venus's orbit giving it a good field of view of NEOs close to the sun. It looks away from the sun to avoid being blinded by it - and it can then see faint NEOs that are in between the Earth and the Sun which is the hardest place to spot them from our current Earth based surveys. It would help fix that blind spot for asteroids that come from the direction of the sun. It looks in infra red because the asteroids are far more obvious in the infrared.
Eventually it would spot just about everything out there that's in the vicinity of the Earth orbit.
Idea is that it would find nearly all potential impactors down to 20 meters diameter.
If we find anything headed our way then with a decade or two of warning it would be easy to deflect.
It doesn’t make much sense to build an asteroid defense system based on expensive rockets that might not be needed for a hundred million years into the future (for the 10 km asteroids) or thousands of years inot the future for the smaller ones.
So unless we had huge amounts of funding ,the first priority is to do surveys and detect them. If we find something headed our way we can then build the defences against them, and if we do a complete survey we would expect decades of warning and can deflect them easily. So the priority right now is funding to detect them. We are doing quite well there. But for a tiny fraction, of say, the amount the UK government just voted to spend on renewing the Triden tnuclear weapons, an amount so small the defence budget of any major country would hardly notice it, we could find nearly all the asteroids down to 20 meters in diameter within a decade.
I think an ET would find it astonishing that we spend so much on defending ourselves against each other, yet none of the advanced countries in the entire world can find half a billion dollars for a space telescope to find the NEOs that threaten us from space.
For more on that, see Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
My Nibiru debunking articles are here
And you can tell from the hundreds of comments on those articles how many scared people there are, genuinely worried by Nibiru. It’s so sad, that they are so scared of such a daft idea, which I think most of them would admit is rather daft if they could just calm down enough to be able to connect to their basic common sense and good judgement. Especially young people and people who don’t have a strong background in science or astronomy.
See also my answer to Why do some people still believe in Nibiru?
This is a copy of my answer to When will Nibiru hit Earth?
[NOTE TO DEBUNKERS - you are welcome to copy / paste as much of this text as you like to use for your debunking comments on videos on youtube etc]
Lots more debunking here: Debunking Doomsday
And my new kindle and online ebook has a whole section on Nibiru
Doomsday Debunked (free online book - also available on kindle here: Doomsday Debunked (kindle):
For the Nibiru section look under: NIBIRU / PLANET X / TWO SUNS
(note, all proceeds from the kindle book will go to Befrienders international or other international suicide prevention charities)
That’s because it is by far the most common question I get asked by scared people, whether we have two suns, or whether there is a planet called Nibiru about to hit Earth.
It is just LOL silly fake Doomsday news to anyone with a basic understanding of the simplest astronomy. You can explain to a five year old child why the ideas are absurd.
But for some reason, this is what many people are scared of. Lots of people are making money out of it, with hoax videos on youtube earning many thousands of dollars a month just from the ad revenue, selling books, selling equipment to those who feel they need to prepare for the alleged impact. There’s even a company that sells super expensive very luxurious space in abandoned Russian nuclear bunkers in Eastern Germany to gullible billionaires and multi-millionaires.
Don’t be a sucker. Ignore it, it’s just the most outrageous BS, balderdash, humbug, tosh, whatever your favourite word is for people who speak garbage and make it sound as if they are saying something sensible.
It’s because of the Moon’s lower gravity of only one sixth of Earth’s. It’s easy to carry enough fuel to land on the Moon, in a slow controlled de-orbit. The lunar module descent stage had a total ...
(more)It’s because of the Moon’s lower gravity of only one sixth of Earth’s. It’s easy to carry enough fuel to land on the Moon, in a slow controlled de-orbit. The lunar module descent stage had a total mass of 15.2 tons, and of that, 8.355 tons was propellant (these figures varied depending on the mission). So around 45% was payload, including as the payload there, the lander itself, the ascent stage, its fuel, and the crew, as well as the lunar rover and any equipment to be left on the surface.
Apollo 11 lunar module. The fuel for the landing was only 55% of its total weight.
The ascent stage was even more efficient with less that 50% of its mass consisting of fuel.
The lunar module’s ascent stage had a total mass of 4.76 tons, of that crew was 144 kg and the propellant was 2.375 tons. The fuel amounted to less than 50% of its total weight. Of the original 15.2 tons of the fully loaded and fueled lunar module, 2.405 tons did the round trip all the way back to orbit. That’s about 15.8%. (Some of the payload of course was left on the surface such as the lunar rover in later missions, and the experiments).
If Earth had as little gravity as the Moon it would be easy to get into orbit and back again and we wouldn’t need to use the atmosphere at all. But we need rather a lot more. Though the gravity is only six times greater on Earth, we need far more than six times the amount of fuel because of the way rockets work. For every few tons of fuel at the end of the journey, you may many extra tons early on, which is just fuel to accelerate fuel.
By way of example only 4% of the Saturn V rocket used to launch the Apollo missions was payload, so 96% of the launch mass is either burnt or discarded on the way to orbit. For the Ariane 5 (European heavy lift rocket), the payload fraction is 2.5%, and it’s similar (slightly less) for the Soyuz 2 used to launch the crewed Soyuz MS.
For the Space Shuttle, only 1% was payload because most of the mass put into orbit was the shuttle itself which was returned to Earth. For more on this, see The Tyranny of the Rocket Equation and for some more example figures, this Payload fraction table
If you don’t have an atmosphere for aerobraking, it takes about the same amount of fuel and hardware to get something into orbit as to de-orbit it. So for instance, it takes 312 tons total mass to launch the new Soyuz MS with a crew of three into orbit. So you’d need that much mass in orbit already to get them back. But each launch can only put payload of 7.08 tons into orbit. That makes it 44 launches before you have enough mass in orbit to return your crew of three safely. It would take eleven launches of the highest capacity rocket we have in production, the Delta IV Heavy(payload 28.79 tons). It would take six launches of a Falcon Heavy - which is not quite ready yet, but which will be able to send 54.4 tons to LEO.
You could do it more easily with the Saturn V. This had a payload to orbit of 140 tons (after boosts in payload capacity for the last two missions). So three launches would be more than enough at least in terms of the total mass. It would also take three launches of the new Space Launch System when ready.
Back in the 1960s NASA studied even larger rockets, the NOVA series, with the eye to a mission to Mars. These never flew, but would have been able to send many hundreds of tons into LEO in a single flight.
Nova - studied from 1959 to 1962. Finally cancelled 1964. Figures show payload to LEO in metric tons. Image © Mark Wade
Later on they explored ideas for modifying the Saturn V for a Mars mission. The Saturn V-4X(U), designed but never built, could have sent 527.6 tons to a 486 km orbit at 28 degrees. That would be much more than enough to get the entire mass of a Soyuz 2 fully loaded with fuel + payload to LEO in a single launch.
So, that would be the situation, for someone living on a planet with Earth gravity and no atmosphere, or very little atmosphere. They could send robotic spacecraft into orbit early on. Returning their citizens from orbit would be tough, but not impossible. However it’s no wonder that we use our atmosphere to slow down our spaceships for re-entry.
For a lot more on this, see my answer to Why is it so difficult to penetrate our atmosphere with a returning spacecraft? In other words, why can’t the vehicle slowly enter our atmosphere?
Nobody knows. Not an untreated, unsterilized sample of Mars soil. It’s laced with perchlorates, but that’s not immediately deadly. Its main danger is that it interferes with uptake of iodine which ...
(more)Nobody knows. Not an untreated, unsterilized sample of Mars soil. It’s laced with perchlorates, but that’s not immediately deadly. Its main danger is that it interferes with uptake of iodine which interferes with our thyroids which regulate our metabolism. That’s more a long term issue if you are exposed to it for some time.
PERCHLORATES IN THE DUST
Those perchlorates are also likely to be decomposed by ionizing radiation into the reactive chlorates (ClO3) and chlorites (ClO2) which have more serious and immediate effects "such as respiratory difficulties, headaches, skin burns, loss of consciousness and vomiting" (quote from page 3 of this paper)
So, I’d say, best not to breathe in the dust.
MAIN ISSUE IS LIFE - AND WE CAN’T PROVE THAT IT WON’T AFFECT US
The main problem, though, is life. Until around 2008 most would say it’s almost impossible it could contain life. Now many are not so sure. And the main concern is not so much the effect on humans, though it’s not impossible that they could affect us. Joshua Lederberg - Wikipedia put it like this (he was a Nobel winning microbiologist, and microbe geneticist, and closely involved in early searches for life on Mars)
"If Martian microorganisms ever make it here, will they be totally mystified and defeated by terrestrial metabolism, perhaps even before they challenge immune defenses? Or will they have a field day in light of our own total naivete in dealing with their “aggressins”?
That’s in his "Paradoxes of the Host-Parasite Relationship" (he also gives an interesting analogy there with symbiosis with mitochondria)
Also
"Whether a microorganism from Mars exists and could attack us is more conjectural. If so, it might be a zoonosis to beat all others.
"On the one hand, how could microbes from Mars be pathogenic for hosts on Earth when so many subtle adaptations are needed for any new organisms to come into a host and cause disease? On the other hand, microorganisms make little besides proteins and carbohydrates, and the human or other mammalian immune systems typically respond to peptides or carbohydrates produced by invading pathogens. Thus, although the hypothetical parasite from Mars is not adapted to live in a host from Earth, our immune systems are not equipped to cope with totally alien parasites: a conceptual impasse."
So, it’s not impossible that Martian microbes just colonize our bodies, and our bodies don’t realize they have to put up any defenses at all, because they don’t recognize it as life. Our immune system and defenses are keyed to various chemicals produced by Earth life, and it’s possible that Mars life simply doesn’t produce those chemicals. It might be rather like the way an artificial hip or heart replacement doesn’t get rejected from our bodies.
NOT JUST US, CROPS, SEAS, ENVIRONMENT OF EARTH
But it’s not just us. Our crops, the sea, animals, the environment of Earth generally, any could be affected by microbes returned from Mars with novel capabilities and perhaps totally different biology inside. For instance, what if they out compete photosynthetic life in the sea? And what if they are inedible to sea creatures, or they produce chemicals that poison them - not because they are adapted to harm us, but just because their chemistry is so different from ours? They can harm by competing, by being poisonous to us when eaten by unsuspecting Earth life, or just by altering habitats in ways that Earth life doesn’t find congenial to it.
Quarantine doesn’t work either. We can’t put everything that it could harm into the quarantine facility - and the effects could be delayed too. The latency period of leprosy is several decades. And if it’s microbes competing with microbes here, they may take up capabilities from Earth life via horizontal gene transfer (if related) or they may evolve to adapt to Earth conditions, or just meet some trigger that changes their behaviour. Again we can’t test for all that in a quarantine facility. It’s possible to quarantine against a known lifeform, but not when we don’t know what we are quarantining against and what its capabilities are.
As for putting humans in a quarantine facility - what do you do if the humans get ill? There is no way you’d just leave them in there to die, on the remote chance that it’s because of some microbe from Mars. It doesn’t prove it’s safe anyway, all it proves is that some humans were not affected when in a facility with the sample for a short period of time. It doesn’t even prove that it is safe for all humans, or that it won’t affect those humans later on, and of course tells us nothing about effects on other lifeforms. It’s hard to know what astrobiologists at the time would have recommended for Apollo - as the regulations were published on the day of launch and never had peer review (would not be acceptable nowadays). But they didn’t know enough to take adequate precautions back then, even without the many lapses in the published procedures (such as opening the Apollo command module door and evacuating the crew to a dinghy bobbing on the open ocean, which must have let dust from the Moon into the ocean, worst possible place to contaminate).
DEBATE ABOUT WHETHER VIKING FOUND LIFE
There may be no life in the sample. But there again there could be. We don’t know yet. Viking turned up possible signs of life, and if it was life, there may be microbial life everywhere on Mars, perhaps in spore form, as Viking landed in equatorial regions, in a place that is not at all a likely habitat for life (as we now know).
The debate about that has swung back and forth. For a long time Gilbert Levin was in a minority of almost one. The alternative theory is that it was the result of some strange chemistry involving perchlorates. But new studies of that ancient Viking data have turned up various anomalies that are a little hard to explain as chemistry. Especially a rhythmic pattern in the activity of the soil sample, which looks much more like a circadian rhythm than the type of rhythm you’d expect from a chemical reaction. See my Rhythms From Martian Sands - What Did Our Viking Landers Find in 1976? Astonishingly, We Don't Know
If Viking did find life, or if we find life in equatorial regions with new missions to Mars, it could use the Martian frosts, which form for 200 nights of the two Earth year long Mars year, and the 100% night time humidity. It might use it directly in some way. Or it might use liquid brines. After all Curiosity is only a few kilometers away from some intriguing streaks that just possibly could be signs of liquid brines just below the surface. Those brines just possibly could be habitable to Earth life - there’s enough concern that they might be that the astrobiologists are saying that we shouldn’t go close to them with Curiosity but only photograph them from a few kilometers away.
Also, what about the layer of brine Curiosity found indirectly by its humidity measurements just below the surface of the sand-dunes? Could there be life in there? The researchers worked out that though at times warm enough for Earth life it would be too salty, and at other times it would be fresh enough for life tolerant of salty conditions, but too cold.
But Nilton Renno, expert on Mars surface conditions, wasn’t so sure:
"Life as we know it needs liquid water to survive. While the new study interprets Curiosity's results to show that microorganisms from Earth would not be able to survive and replicate in the subsurface of Mars, Rennó sees the findings as inconclusive. He points to biofilms—colonies of tiny organisms that can make their own microenvironment."
Also, whether Earth life could get around the difficult conditions with biofilms, possibly those limits might not apply to Mars life.
If these layers are habitable, then that would mean a habitat over much of the equatorial regions of Mars too, or anywhere where there are sand dunes with salts mixed up in them that could cause these liquid layers to form.
Then apart from that, there are the experiments in DLR with cyanobacteria and lichens able to metabolize and photosynthesize in simulated Mars conditions, using just the night time humidity (because the night time temperatures are so cold, Mars has 100% relative humidity at night). They didn’t need any liquid water at all, in any form.
One way or another, we can’t rule out the possibility of life yet, or viable spores of life, even in the equatorial regions.
HALF BILLION DOLLAR SAMPLE RETURN FACILITY
This is the reason why any sample return from Mars would be required to be returned to a purpose built half billion dollar facility, even if you just return a kilogram of the material. The facility would need to be up and running with the staff familiar with its operation and doing practice drills before launch of the sample return mission from Mars (according to the published requirements for it). We would also have to pass numerous laws, too. Margaret Race looked at it. You'd be astonished, there are many domestic and international laws, needing to be passed - which were not needed for Apollo because the world nowadays is legally far more complex. After reading her paper, I think it could easily take well over a decade just passing all the laws even if everyone agrees and there are no objections, and surely longer if there are objections.
I’m not sure how many involved in the decadal review and decision making are aware about all this. Especially the legal issues. If they seriously plan to return a sample in the 2030s, they probably should have started the legal process already. I said a decade, but that is probably very optimistic, to complete all that legislation. Which also would involve a fair bit of international legislation - it’s not just internal domestic US laws, though that would take long enough. And it could also involve internal legislation by other countries too.
MANY ASTROBIOLOGISTS DON’T THINK A SAMPLE RETURN IS WORTH THE COST OF THE MISSION
And the thing is - that paradoxically, the astrobiologists don’t even think that a sample return is the best way to find out about Mars. The geologists want it. But most astrobiologists seem to think that a sample returned in this way would be of some interest, but it’s highly likely that they would be of no more interest than the Mars meteorites we already have, and very unlikely to contain life.
It should be easy to find organics on Mars as it rains in from comets and meteorites. So organics don’t mean life. When Curiosity found organics, the big surprise was not the discovery, as how long it took for it to find the organics. And the organics surely came from meteorites. So a sample from Mars may well contain organics, yes, but ambiguous organics like the ones in the Mars meteorite samples that probably come from meteorites, comets, and non life processes on Mars. It’s likely to be far far harder to find organics with the unambiguous signal of life. Ancient organics will be long degraded by cosmic radiation unless it was buried quickly, kept preserved in very cold conditions, not washed out by flooding, and rapidly returned to the surface in the recent past. Present day life is likely to be just as elusive for different reasons. Endoliths most likely, living inside rocks, slow growing, sparse populations, and in only particular spots over the vast landscape. How likely is it that you find life like that in a return of a few samples from Mars? And most of it in places that we can’t send our current generation of rovers to, because they are not sufficiently sterilized.
This was their study which they submitted to the last decadal review - rather inexplicably, their conclusions were not even mentioned in the summing up. Yet, they came down strongly in favour of in situ exploration at this stage of our exploration of Mars.
"Two strategies have been suggested for seeking signs of life on Mars: The aggressive robotic pursuit of biosignatures with increasingly sophisticated instrumentation vs. the return of samples to Earth (MSR). While the former strategy, typified by the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), has proven to be painfully expensive, the latter is likely to cripple all other activities within the Mars program, adversely impact the entire Planetary Science program, and discourage young researchers from entering the field."
"In this White Paper we argue that it is not yet time to start down the MSR path. We have by no means exhausted our quiver of tools, and we do not yet know enough to intelligently select samples for possible return. In the best possible scenario, advanced instrumentation would identify biomarkers and define for us the nature of potential sample to be returned. In the worst scenario, we would mortgage the exploration program to return an arbitrary sample that proves to be as ambiguous with respect to the search for life as ALH84001."
(white paper by Jeffrey L. Bada, Andrew D. Aubrey, Frank J. Grunthaner, Michael Hecht,Richard Quinn, Richard Mathies, Aaron Zent, andr John H. Chalmers)
Instead of a sample return at this stage, they recommend more thorough in situ searches, and increased mobility, to look at the many possible habitable environments on Mars. They also recommend drilling to depth, and searching for biosignatures. The main difference in the perspective of the astrobiologists, and the geologists, is in the timing. They recommend a sample return at a later stage in exploration, once we have explored Mars more thoroughly and definitely identified biomarkers on Mars. Alternatively, if we never find biomarkers on Mars, we could return samples after we have exhausted all the in situ technologies available to explore for the biomarkers on Mars itself directly.
So ironically, such a sample probably wouldn’t have life, if we don’t do in situ searches on Mars first - it’s a big challenge to find life there, both past and present. Past life is likely to be sparse, and hard to find, slowly metabolism, and might even be so adapted to Mars it can’t survive removal when we try to study it. E.g. life with perchlorate salts mixed with hydrogen peroxide in the water in place of the sea salts Earth life has inside the cells - it could autocatalyse and be reduced just to gases and a few trace organics if you warm it up slightly and add water.
Or it may be that there is life and it is totally harmless to Earth. For instance it could be an early form of life that has been made extinct by DNA based life on Earth.
Yet, for all we know, it could be some robust form of life that would be harmful to Earth. Even if that chance is tiny, maybe it is only a 1 in 100 chance or less, still you can’t take a risk of a devastating effect on the environment of Earth. Even a 1 in a billion probability of devastation here is something many would consider to be too much to risk.
HAVE TO BUILD A FACILITY TO COPE WITH ANY CONCEIVABLE EXOBIOLOGY FROM MARS
So if you return an unsterilized sample, and you don’t know what is in it, no in situ studies, then you have to design your return mission to cope with any conceivable extra terrestrial biology that you might find on Mars. And that is a formidable undertaking, given that we only have the example of Earth life to base it on.
Each study has lead to more stringent requirements. Two studies by the National Research Council (NRC) in the USA (two studies) reduced the smallest particle you can contain to 200 nm after discovery of the ultramicrobacteria.
Then, archaea can transfer genes between phyla that are as different from each other as fungi are different from aphids. It is an ancient mechanism and so may also be able to transfer genes from life that had last common ancestor with us in the early solar system. In one experiment 47% of the microbes (in many phyla) in a sample of sea water left overnight with a GTA conferring antibiotic resistance had taken it up by the next day. This striking experiment was published not long before the ESF report. So if the life is at all related to Earth life, you have the possibility of this exchange of DNA bringing new capabilities to Earth microbes from space. Even if the microbes themselves don’t survive the sample return, just get some GTA’s somehow get out of the sample container.
So the ESF reduced the limit to 10 nm. They said that there should be no more than a 1 in a million chance of releasing a 10 nm particle. They said that this limit could be raised to 50 nm, if that turns out to be the minimum sized that can be contained at reasonable cost, but that to raise the limit like that would require a detailed review. Above 50 nm was unacceptable under any circumstances (although the smallest Earth cell is 150 nm in diameter). You can read the paper here: Mars Sample Return backward contamination – Strategic advice and requirements (see page 48)
The limits of size workshop came to the conclusion that the predecessors to Earth life could have been as small as 40 nm in diameter, in a minimal cell that doesn’t have all the complex machinery of Earth life.
Another thing that makes the design more complex is the need not just to contain the sample (which is usually done by a positive air pressure from outside) but also to protect it from outside organics (which needs a positive air pressure from inside). You end up with some kind of a double walled facility and they cite this as one of the main reasons why you have to have a new design of building, never tested before, and is partly why it is so expensive.
If you just need to be able to contain the sample, well keep it within a capsule, cover in layer upon layer of metal and concrete, and it’s not likely that anything escapes. But that’s of no use to the scientists. And if you make it so that it keeps any life inside, but also introduces any amount of organics and life from outside, that’s pretty useless also. Not when they are going to do tests so sensitive that maybe even a single amino acid would be significant.
This is one of the designs they came up with in 2008, with telerobotics.
The LAS sample receiving facility uses a fully robotic workforce, including robotic arms that manipulate samples within interconnected biosafety cabinets. Carrier robots would transport the samples around the facility. Credit: NASA/LAS
This is for just a less than 1 kg of samples returned most likely, yet you have to build something like this. And even then, it might not be sufficient.
EVERY STUDY SAYS THEIR CONCLUSIONS HAVE TO BE REVIEWED CONSTANTLY
Every Mars sample return study to date says at the end that their conclusions have to be reviewed continually, based on new research. For the next study, whenever it is - well I don’t know what they will say, of course, but just to share a few ideas about some of the new ideas they may want to consider. There is much active research at present into into a semi synthetic minimal living cell or an artificial minimal cell. Does the 40 nm size limit still apply based on the recent research? In the Programmable Artificial Cell Evolution project, the smallest artificial minimal cells were as small as 103 atoms, based on PNA instead of DNA, making it possible to simulate the whole cell as a quantum mechanical system in a computer. These “cells” were just a few nanometers across. Could real world cells be as small as this? Perhaps acting together in an assembly or biofilm?
Also there's much more work been done on possible XNA based life, and I would expect that to feature more in a new study than in previous ones. The ESF one is almost entirely based on limitations for Earth life, although it does briefly discuss non Earth biology. And none of the studies to date address issues of human error, accidents, terrorism, a crash during transport of the sample to the facility, a plane crashing into the facility etc. The studies done to date mention these issues, but only to say that these issues were not part of their remit. So far, as far as I know, nobody has studied these issues in the context of a Mars sample return (do say if you know of any study).
AND AFTER ALL THAT, THE HALF BILLION DOLLAR SAMPLE, THE LEGISLATION AND EVERYTHING MIGHT ALL BE UNNECESSARY
And then after all this work - we might find that the sample receiving facility wasn't even needed. The samples returned might be completely harmless. Yet it would be irresponsible not to do it. And - would the people who do the precautions do them with their full attention? Just one lapse, and there were many with the lunar handling facility for Apollo - and you might as well not do it at all.
It seems a back to front way of proceeding to me. Wouldn't it be better to first characterize the sample before we return it? Then design the facility around the samples once we know what they are?
As Carl Sagan said, it could be that you could eat kilograms of Mars life with no effect. But it could also be harmful. And you can’t take even a tiny a risk with a billion lives. It’s okay for individuals to take such risks for themselves. That’s their own decision, if they want to go base jumping or whatever. But in this case we don’t know what the level of risk is, and it could impact on everyone in the worst case.
SO WHAT SHOULD WE DO?
I think myself that we should do the in situ searches recommended by the astrobiologists. They have devised exquisitely sensitive instruments to send to Mars.
NASA seem committed to return a sample to Earth, despite the fact that the paper by eight astrobiologists to the decadal review strongly urged them not to do it - that it is not the way ahead for astrobiology. Well, probably their samples won’t tell us much about life on Mars. So why not just sterilize it?
I suggest we use an interim method. Return the sample to a safe orbit above GEO. Return part of it to Earth surface, pre-sterilized with gamma radiation, which should have little effect on geological studies. Leave the rest up there, and if it seems that there could be life in it, then send robotic equipment up to above GEO to study it.
If you find that there is some form of life there that is based on a completely different biology, say, not DNA, then of course everyone would be on their toes and I think you can have more confidence that they design safe ways to deal with it. And the safest way to study it might well be via telepresence, in orbit, especially once we can send payloads of hundreds of tons to above GEO in one go, as we may be able to do in the near future.
And if you know enough to be sure that the life there is harmless, then you can return the sample, without the worries you would otherwise have, and save the cost and worry and expense of all those precautions.
That way, we don’t risk Earth at all. We don’t have to build the 500 million dollar receiving facility. We don’t have to pass ten years worth of laws just to return less than a 1 kg sample. And we may well find there is no life in any of the samples. In that case, just sterilize it all, just to be safe (because it won’t matter for the geology - can allow for the effects of a known amount of gamma radiation) and return it to Earth.
It may well be useful to be able to return samples to Earth if there is life on Mars. But I would be very surprised, from what I’ve learnt about this topic, if we find life by doing sample returns. Instead, we will probably find it in situ, maybe present day life, and maybe past life, then we can return it to Earth once we know what it is.
In that case again, that would then mean we can design the necessary precuations based on knowing what it is. For instance if it is early life, or even, non living autopoetic cells or some other interesting pre-biotic chemistry, we might decide that no precautions are needed. But with evolution independent on Mars and Earth, it could be the other way around. What if life on Mars is several billion years ahead of Earth life and has capabilities Earth life hasn’t evolved yet - or has such capabilities in some areas and not in others? Even if microbial. For instance photosynthesis that is much more efficient, or a more efficient metabolism, or a wider range of biochemical pathways.
For more on all this see my new online and kindle book:
If Humans Touch Mars - Like the Lascaux Story - Another Tale of Human Missteps?
As you will see from the change log at the end, it is work in progress at present, but the main part of it is there. Right now I’m working through it, doing a final read through and looking out for copy editing type errors and omissions and such like. I’ve actually had some new ideas for how to present parts of the sample return section from this answer so you may see some of the sentences and paragraphs from this answer appear there :).
If you are talking about landing there, then yes. But we have had a fair bit of study from orbit. NASA’s Magellan orbiter particularly did detailed mapping from orbit in the 1990s. So a bit more re...
(more)If you are talking about landing there, then yes. But we have had a fair bit of study from orbit. NASA’s Magellan orbiter particularly did detailed mapping from orbit in the 1990s. So a bit more recent than the 1970s. We know a lot more about it as a result.
Gula Mons - one of the Magellan images of Venus - 3D stereo so can be tilted in software to see from any angle.
And Japan has a new satellite in orbit around Venus right now, studying its atmosphere.
It’s really hard to land on the surface - actually landing is easy but surviving once there is hard because of the extremes of temperature and pressure and the sulfuric acid.
But the clouds are another matter. The cloud tops are in many ways the most habitable place in the solar system outside of Earth - if we had a reason to be there. The pressure and temperature are the same as for the Earth’s surface. It’s above the clouds so plenty of sunlight. You can use just a thin envelope to hold in the breathable atmosphere as pressures would be the same inside and out. Protection against the sulfuric acid isn’t that hard; you can use Teflon for instance. You wouldn’t need spacesuits, just acid resistant suits, far less expensive. The atmosphere also has just about all the ingredients for life. In principle you could grow plastics and trees from the atmosphere. People often say at this point “but what if you fall to the ground?” - but you’d be tethered of course if out of doors - and death is far more immediate and sudden from a spacesuit depressurizing.
Russian idea for a cloud colony in the upper atmosphere of Venus, proposed in 1970s
original article (in Russian) - and forum discussion of the article - includes rough translation (I think anyway), probably by non native English speaker.This illustration is from Aerostatical Manned Platforms in the Venus atmosphere - Technica Molodezhi TM - 9 1971
See my Will We Build Colonies That Float Over Venus Like Buckminster Fuller's "Cloud Nine"?
LIFE IN THE CLOUDS OF VENUS
There could even be life in the Venus clouds, probably microbial.
The idea here is that Venus started off Earth like in the early solar system. But at some point it dried up, lost its ocean due to a runaway greenhouse effect, which didn't affect Earth in the same way because continental drift on Earth continually buries and circulates the carbonates. Though the surface of Venus is amazingly inhospitable, the layer at the top of its clouds is in many cases the most habitable location in our solar system after Earth - almost Earth like in temperature, pressure, and atmospheric composition (without the oxygen of course). It has one major drawback, droplets of concentrated sulfuric acid.
However we do have acidophiles on Earth that survive in conditions not far off the acidity of Venus clouds - in sulfuric acid outflows from mines on Earth. The UV light at the cloud tops could be hazardous also, but the life in the Venus clouds could be protected by pigments or by an external layer of solid sulfur (the allotrope S8). So - it's possible that there is sulfuric acid tolerant life in the Venus clouds. The other main problem with the high Venus clouds is that there are no solid surfaces of course. But it could have evolved in the early solar system and then migrated to the clouds as the surface got drier and hotter.
The main question is, could the life find some way to stay aloft? The residence time of particles is months rather than days - so - that makes it easier, and turbulence could return some of the life to the tops of the habitable layer after it reproduces - but it's still quite a challenge.The surface of Venus is totally hostile to Earth life, a dim, hot furnace, with temperatures well over 400°C. But conditions are different at the Venus cloud tops. Temperatures are ideal, with plenty of light. There are several factors that suggest life may be possible there:
Of those, the three main lines of evidence which just possibly could indicate the presence of life are the UV absorption (possible photosynthesis or UV protection), the chemical disequilibrium, especially the presence of OCS, and the possible presence of large non spherical particles. All of these could also be due to non life processes but are not easy to explain in that way.
For more on this:
If we do find life there, it probably didn't originate in the cloud tops. Instead, it's probably a relict of surface life in the early solar system, which migrated to its upper atmosphere as the conditions became harsher. (See also section on Venusian clouds in "Cosmic Biology - How Life could Evolve on Other Worlds").
Artist impressions of Venusian clouds, credit ESA. The surface of Venus is utterly hostile to Earth like life, at temperatures of well over 400°C is. It is also dim, not much light filters through the clouds. But high in the atmosphere above the cloud tops, then conditions are far more conducive to life, at temperatures around 0°C. The cloud droplets themselves are the main challenge, concentrated sulfuric acid, with acidity similar to battery acid. There are intriguing signs that just might indicate life, in the upper atmosphere though they can also have other interpretations.
Venus probably started off similar to Earth. It's surface actually gets less light than the Earth, because though closer to the sun, it has highly reflective clouds. It is so hot, not so much because it is closer to the sun, but because of a runaway greenhouse effect. Earth has similar amounts of carbon dioxide locked up in limestone, and could look the same in the future as the sun heats up further. Most scientists think that Venus was a near twin of Earth in the early solar system, with oceans like Earth. We don't have quite the same confidence about this that we have for Mars because its entire surface was resurfaced a few hundred million years ago which would erase any clear signs of the ancient oceans such as the deltas and shore lines of Mars. But there are still hints that suggest it did have them.
Evidence for early oceans on Venus is indirect.
This is a temperature map of Venus. Observations from orbit are consistent with the idea that Venus had earlier oceans, with suggestions that it might have granite land masses. If so these may be the remains of ancient continents
"The eight Russian landers of the 1970s and 1980s touched down away from the highlands and found only basalt-like rock beneath their landing pads. The new map shows that the rocks on the Phoebe and Alpha Regio plateaus are lighter in color and look old compared to the majority of the planet. On Earth, such light-colored rocks are usually granite and form continents.
"Granite is formed when ancient rocks, made of basalt, are driven down into the planet by shifting continents, a process known as plate tectonics. The water combines with the basalt to form granite and the mixture is reborn through volcanic eruptions. If there is granite on Venus, there must have been an ocean and plate tectonics in the past," Nils Muller said.
See Oceans on Ancient Venus - Study suggests (space.com)
This life could also survive in high pressure subsurface habitats with supercritical liquid water.
If Venus did have oceans in the early solar system, life could have evolved independently from Earth. Or, it's possible that Venus was seeded by life from Mars or Earth, billions of years ago. Or the other way around, it could have seeded Earth or Mars, or both. If so then this is a really exciting possibility for biology. We may make amazing discoveries from studying life that's been isolated from Earth for billions of years, or possibly evolved independently.
Venus (left) may have had oceans like Earth (right) in the early solar system, and life could have evolved there, or been seeded by Mars or Earth. If so it might still exist in the clouds.
However this may also have planetary protection implications. Some time back, in 2006, an international team of scientists for COSPAR (Committee on Space Research) examined the situation for Venus, in "Assessment of Planetary Protection for Venus Missions" (you might find that the easiest way to read this report online is to get free membership of NAP and then use the download button and read it as a pdf). They came to the conclusion that even in the Venusian cloud tops, conditions are so different from Earth conditions that there is no need for planetary protection. As a result of this report, Venus is currently classified as Category II, and sample return as unrestricted Category V. This means that you simply need to document whatever it is you do. (For the current planetary protection categories, and policies, see Planetary Protection (Wikipedia) )
This also means that you can return a sample of the Venus atmosphere to Earth for study, with no need to contain it or act in any way to protect the Earth environment. The only requirement is that you have to keep detailed documentation of whatever you do. However, there was a dissenting voice at the time, by Dirk Schulze-Makuch who was not part of the team. See Planetary Protection Study Group Mulls Life On Venus
Everyone seems agreed that there are no planetary protection issues for the Venus surface, with temperatures well over 400C. But should the Venus atmosphere perhaps be re-categorized as category III, meaning that you have to sterilize spacecrafts that visit it? Should sample return from Venus be re-categorized as restricted Category V, meaning that you have to take precautions to protect Earth in event of a sample return?.
Some of the material here comes from my article If there is Life in Venus Cloud Tops - Do we Need to Protect Earth - or Venus - Could Returned XNA mean Goodbye DNA for Instance?
We may get this in situ search soon. Some scientists working on designs for the next Russian mission to Venus, Venera D which hopefully will launch some time in the 2020s. Provisionally 2026. The original plan was for a balloon (as well as a lander and orbiter). They want to include ideas from the Northrup group VAMP project for an unmanned aerial vehicle for Venus. This would actually deploy outside of the Venus atmosphere and do a hypersonic entry. Because it is so large and light, it decelerates very high in the Venus atmosphere, and so does not need an aeroshell as it decelerates more slowly and the skin is not raised to a high temperature
It inflates before it enters the atmosphere (see Patent). Because it is so low in density (low ballistic coefficient), it decelerates slowly in the very thin upper atmosphere, so generating much less heat. So it doesn't need an aeroshell, though, its outer envelope is reinforced to withstand up to 1200 C along leading edges
They hope it can be used for Venus, and also Titan, possibly Mars.
Eventually we can send humans to the clouds. The HAVOC idea is to do this. Their airship expands after it enters the Venus atmosphere, but the rest of the design is very similar. This is a video showing how it would work.
However I think we should do in situ searches first before sending humans there just in case.
So anyway the Venera-D is going to study the clouds, possibly with an inflatable airship like VAMP - and it’s also going to have an orbiter, and it should have a lander too designed to survive a long time on the surface, and a more powerful radar. So that will be our next return to Venus. There is a lot of scientific interest in Venus.
We could also find out about Venus from the Moon once we have bases on the lunar poles, because Venus must have sent meteorites to the Moon in the early solar system. It must have sent them to Earth too but with all the alteration over the last billions of years not likely we find them. But on the Moon they may sit unchanged in the ice at the lunar poles. Would be especially exciting if it turns out that early Venus had life, and we find evidence of that in organics in meteorites from Venus on the Moon. We can’t get meteorites from Venus right now because its atmosphere is so thick that the largest asteroids that could hit it nowadays, a little over 10 km in diameter, could never send ejecta with escape velocity up through its thick atmosphere. But in the early solar system it would have had much more massive impactors and probably also had a much thinner atmosphere too. So it would be no great surprise to find Venus meteorites on the Moon. See section 3.1.1 of this paper
I think it is fair to say that there has been much more attention on Mars than on Venus. Also much more attention on Mars than on the Moon. Still even Mars only has two landers at present still active, on a planet with a surface area the size of the entire land area of the Earth - each able to travel only a few kilometers per year because of the very slow turn around time, communications for a short window of a few minutes once a day - will make a huge difference once we have broadband communications. So when you say Mars is better explored than Venus, it is true, but we are only just scratching the surface on Mars too, especially for robots on the surface. And as for the Moon, the Chinese lander was the first return to the surface since the days of Apollo though that does now seem set to change.
This consists mainly of an extract from my Life in clouds of Venus section in my new online and kindle book:
If Humans Touch Mars - Like the Lascaux Story - Another Tale of Human Missteps?
Anyone can claim anywhere in space, of course. You could just point to the Moon or Mars and say “I claim the Moon or Mars”. and various people have done essentially that - laying claim to the Moon,...
(more)Anyone can claim anywhere in space, of course. You could just point to the Moon or Mars and say “I claim the Moon or Mars”. and various people have done essentially that - laying claim to the Moon, Sun, the asteroids, all extra terrestrial objects etc. But according to the Outer Space Treaty no signatory can uphold that claim. So there isn’t really much point in it.
You do however own your spaceship and habitat. And there is some precedent for a safety region around it, as the ISS has one. That’s one basis for establishing a form of ownership consistent with the OST.
There are other ideas to extend some form of ownership consistent with the Outer Space Treaty.
NO PROBLEM FOR A FEW THOUSAND IN SPACE
I don’t see it as much of a problem myself for as long as we have only a few hundred or a few thousand in space. To have a million or a billion people in space is way beyond our current situation. Mars, and the Moon are no “New World”. They are extremely hostile places. They aren’t places where you can set up home unless you have other reasons for being there. No air, no fertile land, no liquid water.
TERRAFORMING IS SCIENCE FICTION
The idea that you can terraform Mars is just science fiction; there are ideas for ways that it could be done, but we have never terraformed a planet and to do that would be a thousand year project just to get to the point where trees grow there, with no breathable oxygen yet. And to get that far would be a mega project involving giant mirrors the size of a planet in space, or greenhouse gas factories mining cubic kilometers of fluorite ore every century just to create the greenhouse gases to keep it warm, also probably involve redirecting, and smashing numerous comets into Mars to create an atmosphere etc.
Then, if somehow magically we could give Mars an Earth atmosphere it would be too cold, unless we had those planet scale mirrors or non stop greenhouse gas factories powered by 500 nuclear power stations running continuously. Even an Earth pressure CO2 atmosphere on Mars is not warm enough - it’s a bit of a mystery how it had seas in the past though it might be that they were liquid only at times when Mars’ orbit was much more eccentric than it is now, also with the poles so tilted it had equatorial instead of polar ice caps - and probably froze over every two years. At any rate a CO2 atmosphere on Mars right now would not keep it warm enough for an Earth like ecosystem, and to remove much of that carbon to make it into an oxygen atmosphere would make it even worse (and would also take 100,000 years if you did it with photosynthesis).
(N.B. I go into all these things in much more detail in the books linked to at the end of this answer, along with cites to find out more).
HUGE TIME SPEED UP
It would also be a huge acceleration in timescale over the way it worked on Earth, when our planet became hospitable, which took us millions of years starting from a much more promising start. And Mars is very different from Earth in many ways - and there is no guarantee even that we could do it for a second Earth identical to ours in all respects except no life, and only CO2 in the atmosphere. Who is to say that what we have is the expected end state? But on Mars with its such different orbit, temperature, geology, surface chemistry, … We get oops moments and big mistakes in projects as small as Biosphere II.
SURELY WE’D USE ALL THAT INGENUITY AND EFFORT FOR EARTH?
Why would anyone do that, as a thousand year project, when we have such a habitable Earth? What government on Earth would vote, year after year, for a thousand years, to spend all that money on this attempt to make Mars more habitable? There is no way it could be done without a huge amount of support from Earth. Why not use all that ingenuity and all that effort to protect and benefit Earth instead? Instead of planet sized mirrors to warm up Mars, planet sized regions of thin film mirrors focusing on smaller solar panels, to make solar power to give Earth endless free solar power from space? Instead of smashing comets into Mars, if we ever have that technology, use that ice for rocket fuel and settlements in the Earth Moon system. The ideas are great to study, and fun ideas, but I don’t see them as a near term practical future.
Also, our Earth is nowhere near over populated if you applied the sort of technology they would use for space colonization. The habitats they claim they would be able to build on Mars - if you used the same technology on Earth you could set up home in any desert anywhere, even cold dry Atacama desert, Gobi desert etc and be self sufficient. For much much less expense. You don’t have to make your own oxygen. You can maintain your habitat without using spacesuits. You don’t need protection from cosmic radiation. You don’t need to engineer it to hold in ten tons per square meter of atmospheric outwards pressure.
And with the self sufficient high tech ideas of growing crops for space habitats - to be efficient enough to be feasible in space - these are so efficient, you could feed the entire world from only 2.5% of the Sahara desert. Also our oceans are four times the surface area of the land, in effect giving us four new "ocean world" planets. If we use space habitat technology for the seas as well, we could feed the population of those four extra "ocean world" planets, with four times the population of Earth, from only 0.5% of the Pacific ocean. We are talking here about minimal impact sea steading, in tethered floating sea cities.
I go into it all in more detail in my books linked to at the end. The main problem at the moment is advancing desertification, and there are desert projects already to use sea water to reclaim deserts. These are already rather like "space habitats" on Earth but much simpler, in the way that they are rather self sufficient, contained, using local reasources only. The seasteading idea is also, minimal impact, not fishing the seas, solar power, only using sea water and sunlight as the main imports.
What scenario could lead to us setting up a thousand year project, hugely expensive, setting up huge mirrors and a thousand nuclear power plants on Mars in an attempt to make a pale imitation of Earth? When we could do so much here instead?
So I don’t see that happening any time soon. There are many issues with Mars anyway. I see the Moon as far more likely to succeed for small scale settlement. Mainly because it’s close enough to Earth so that there are possibilities of exports, and of putting some of our heavy technology on the Moon. But Mars is so far away- how could anything made there benefit Earth?
PARATERRAFORMING IS FEASIBLE - BUT WHY NOT ON THE MOON OR IN FREE SPACE
We could do paraterraforming on Mars much more easily - space colonies inside caves or in greenhouses covering large areas, and eventually possibly the whole planet. But if you are doing that - well you might as well do it on the Moon, at the lunar poles to start with or in the lunar caves - if you look at it in detail they have many advantages over Mars.
And paraterraforming anyway - that means building your own habitats. So - would need to be a lawyer to look into it in detail but I think it means according to the OST that if you can paraterraform like that - including making free space colonies from materials in the asteroid belt - well you made the whole thing yourself, even if you made it with local materials. So surely you’d own a paraterraformed area of the Moon.
IDEA YOU’D HAVE MILLIONS IN SPACE AND THEY WOULD ONLY BE THE “GOOD GUYS”
But - why this idea that we will have millions in space? And would it make us safer to have mllions of people with space technology?
This doesn’t just mean whoever you think are the “good guys” in space. Once you have millions, you are going to have the likes of North Korea, and ISIS in space with technology far more powerful than an ICBM. And what’s more, with space habitats as fragile as eggshells. What would happen to the ISS or any space habitat if someone just did a suicide bomber type run against it with a spaceship traveling at 39,897 km/h - the maximum speed anyone has traveled, during Apollo 10’s return from the Moon? Such speeds would be common place once you have millions in space. We don’t have “shields” as in Star Trek. There would be no defense at all for space habitats against anyone with malicious intentions and access to space technology.
Or if not, how do you make sure only the “good guys” get into space? I don’t see any need or point in rushing into space as fast as possible. And - I don’t buy Elon Musk’s argument that we have only a short window of opportunity to get into space. If that was the case, then the space colonies would be doomed also, because how could we have space colonies when Earth, the most habitable place by far in our entire solar system, is not working for us?
THREAT OF WAR CAN’T WORK AS A WAY OF ESTABLISHING TERRITORY IN SPACE
Territories on Earth are enforced on the country level by the threat of war. Even Buddhist countries have armies. But a war in space would lead to destruction of everyone, because the habitats are so fragile, like eggshells or bubbles, and the speeds of the spacecraft so high, tens of thousands of miles an hour.
Also, after a habitat is destroyed, there is nowhere else that you can go because you can't even breathe the air if you are forced out of your habitat even if you survive a direct hit in a spacesuit. An all out war in space would be over quickly, with no survivors on either side. So before we can have territories in space, if we do, we need another approach.
We can be competitive of course, for instance in the Olympic games, or in friendly scientific competition, without violence or warfare. So a future without any possibility of war doesn’t need to mean a future with no competition. It could have fierce competition. But how can there be territories in space without any possibility of war, once we have millions living there?
NO NEED FOR A “COLLISION INSURANCE POLICY” - NOTHING CAN MAKE EARTH LESS HABITABLE THAN MARS
As for the idea that we need two planets because of things that could happen to Earth - there is nothing that is remotely able to make Earth less habitable than Mars. That would mean removing our atmosphere, all of our oceans too, most of the ice. Even then it would be more habitable than Mars (in a better locale in the solar system, not as cold as Mars). It’s just not going to happen. Not for at least a few hundred million or billion years.
You often get people saying that we could get a collision with an asteroid to make Earth uninhabitable. Yes, there were such collisions in the early solar system and through to soon after the formation of the Moon, billions of years ago, the collisions that made the Hellas basin on Mars, the Aitken crater on the Moon and the Caloris Basin on Mercury. But we haven’t had impacts that large for well over three billion years. Modeling also supports this. Jupiter protects us from those huge 100 kilometer impactors. Deflects them to hit itself, the Sun, tear themselves to pieces through tidal interactions or ejects them from the solar system before they have a chance to hit the tiny target of Earth.
It’s true that such an impact could literally make Earth uninhabitable for us, for millions of years. But it ain’t going to happen. Jupiter doesn’t do such a good job of protecting us against the smaller up to 10 kilometers and a bit larger impacts - it still takes many of those also “for the team” but many get through. But none of those would make us extinct on Earth or make Earth anything like as uninhabitable as Mars. The dinosaurs didn’t have our technology, and even with the simplest of technology, millions of people would survive.
For detailed reasons of why we would survive a Chixculub impact see my Why Resilient Humans Would Survive Giant Asteroid Impact - Even With Over 90% Of Species Extinct
As for supernovae, and gamma ray bursts, well some of the experts are skeptical that they cause mass extinctions. If they do - then it’s indirectly through creating holes in the ozone layer. We are protected from the radiation beneath the equivalent of ten meters thickness of water in mass, by our atmosphere. UV gets through our atmosphere but it is just light and easily protected by a thin layer of any opaque material or by sun block cream. Again humans could survive easily, whatever the effects on other species. For more about all this see the section Earth best for a "backup" in http://robertinventor.com/bookle...
Indeed, however bad the disaster, it just needs a few people to have some idea of how to make a plane to survive, to know enough to avoid the whole thing of trying flapping flight for instance. It’s the same for many other things. We’d know so many things that could let us leap-frog centuries. It would also just need a few books to survive, and some examples of our technology to give a huge head start. And if we want insurance - well its knowledge, seed banks etc that we want to preserve, so a great place to preserve those in addition to Earth would be on the Moon. See my Backup on the Moon - seed banks, libraries, and a small colony
Also, just to reassure anyone who is scared of dinosaur era impacts - of course those are incredibly rare too. And we don’t risk anything like that anyway for the next century, because we already know the orbits of all the Near Earth 10 km plus asteroids and none are headed our way. As for the chance of a comet of that size, well it is a 1 in million chance for the 10 km asteroids of a hit during a century - so 1 in 146 million for a comet, so tiny that we can ignore it since currently only 1 in 146 of flybys is by a comet.
IT MAY BE A PROBLEM A BILLION YEARS FROM NOW - BUT IT’S TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHAT WILL BE NEEDED THEN
We can face this problem a billion years from now, and I think it is too early to think that whatever we do now will solve whatever problems future civilizations will have on Earth a billion years from now. Surely a healthy Earth will be more important to them than a probably failed attempt at terraforming Mars. In any case the Mars terraforming wouldn’t last that long. It would lose its atmosphere over such long timescales. It would then be a dead dry planet with almost no chance of re-terraforming. Unless there was some way to keep it self sustaining - but how do you deal with the atmosphere loss?
NEED TO KEEP EARTH IN GOOD SHAPE
It’s obvious I think that we have to do everything we can to keep Earth in the best shape possible. Based on that, with a healthy Earth then we can have a healthy space industry and settlement too. And one of the things we can do in space is to do things to help Earth. Like solar power from space, scientific discoveries to help Earth, mining in space may help us also.
I think space is still of great interest. There is much we can learn, and often our robotic explorers will be an important part of that. And there is the possibility of commercial exports to Earth especially from the Moon. And increase in scientific understanding. And we could have thousands living on the Moon in the vast lunar caves. It’s closer and safer. Or at the lunar poles.
If you had a large colony in a cave - well - I think that would count as a space habitat so basically they could own their cave. That’s a vast area, they can be kilometers in diameter we think - from radar data - and over 100 km long.
MAIN CHALLENGE NOT LEGAL BUT SOCIAL
I think the main challenge here before we have lots of people in space is not so much the legal one of how you make it legally possible, I think the Outer Space Treaty is an excellent starting point because it gives a framework that could lead to a peaceful way ahead, which is essential in space. And there are many ideas of ways it can be extended to deal with various future needs.
The problem is a social one . How can you have large numbers of people in space and still have a peaceful stable prosperous society? I think if we manage to sort that out, then the legal issues are not likely to be a major problem. But before that can be possible, I think we need to find out to do it here on Earth, probably. Otherwise we just export our problems. You can start small scale in space and maybe have a peaceful society but as we are now, if you expand hugely and rapidly we will just have the same problems we have on Earth written out in large in space, but much more high tech with people with spacecraft able to travel at kilometers per second. I just don’t think we are ready for millions in space. But I don’t think it is impossible. Just not yet. But we are ready for a few hundred or thousand, even maybe tens of thousands.
NEAR FUTURE LIKE ANTARCTICA
I see the near future as more like Antarctica. The space stations like Antarctic bases. And then probably tourists visiting as well, like tourists visiting Antarctica.
Like this
That is hugely more habitable than anywhere in space. If you found somewhere like that in space you’d call it a “second Earth” what with the atmosphere and abundant ice for water.
How Antarctic bases went from wooden huts to sci-fi chic - BBC News
And it’s so much easier dressing up for Antarctica than putting on a spacesuit.
That’s the equipment you need for the Antarctic interior, where temperatures are - 10 C to -20 C even in summer and below -60 C in winter. For the coastal areas where tourist cruise ships visit in summer it’s often as warm as 0 C. To kit yourself out like that would cost thousands of dollars. But to kit yourself out with a spacesuit would cost an estimated $2 million dollars (you can’t actually buy one “off the shelf” at present). That’s just the cost of the components and of building it, a highly skilled activity that takes a long time as it is, essentially, a miniature spaceship. It doesn’t include the development cost. Tourists on the Moon would surely not bring their own spacesuits any time soon.
So long as we have activities in space rather like activities in Antarctica, along with maybe some commercial activities as well unlike Antarctica, I think the OST is just fine and we can work within it. If we ever have to go beyond it, that will be very difficult since so many have signed it, and other attempts at international space law (such as the Moon treaty) have shown how difficult that is to achieve - but I don’t think we need to do that at present.
There are also major planetary protection issues with sending humans to Mars, I think. Though the Mars moons Phobos and Deimos don’t have that problem, or probably don’t, and the Moon certainly doesn’t. Why send humans as quickly as possible to the one place in the solar system that we can mess up most easily by introducing Earth life, when we have no previous experience at all of any settlement in space anywhere? (I don’t think the ISS really counts as space settlement). And what we could discover on Mars if we don’t mess it up could be one of the biggest discoveries in biology ever - maybe just microbes, but extra terrestrial microbes based on a completely different biology, not using DNA, like a whole other world inside their cells.
For more on all this, you may like to check out my:
MOON FIRST Why Humans on Mars Right Now are Bad for Science.President Obama, if you love science, Please protect Mars life from contamination from Earth (I should change this title now that he is about to reach the end of his second term)
If Humans Touch Mars - Like the Lascaux Story - Another Tale of Human Missteps?
Yes Hubble found the first intergalactic stars in 1997. As to whether they have planets, I don’t know of any actual detection of planets around intergalactic stars. But most are thought to originat...
(more)Yes Hubble found the first intergalactic stars in 1997. As to whether they have planets, I don’t know of any actual detection of planets around intergalactic stars. But most are thought to originate from galaxy collisions so just ordinary stars ejected from ordinary galaxies. So probably many have planets.
This is an artist’s impression of what the night sky would look like from a planet orbiting such a star from their original release - you’d see the misty patches of distant galaxies, but nothing else.
Hubble Space Telescope - Images
But they wouldn’t be anything like as bright as this. Bear in mind that the Andromeda galaxy, if we could see it as brightly as it appears in photographs ,would look as large as this:
Yes, That Picture of the Moon and the Andromeda Galaxy Is About Right
It would be a spectacular object. But sadly we just can’t see it at all except as a faint smudge on very dark nights just visible to those with good eyesight and all you can see is the very center of the galaxy, easiest seen with binoculars.
So - your night sky would consist of just the faintest smudges of distant galaxies which you’d see only with excellent eyesight on a dark night. Though of course that’s just for us, if we can imagine beings there with much better night vision than us, their night sky might be rather spectacular, filled with galaxies.
These stars may not be rare. Every time two galaxies collide they send stars into intergalactic space.
According to one recent observation of a distant dim glow, then it’s possible that half of all the stars in our universe are in between the galaxies, intergalactic rogue stars. Half of stars lurk outside galaxies
Stars also leave galaxies all the time even without mergers. Here is a superimposed series of images of a moving star believed to have been ejected from the Large Magellanic Cloud,
Credit: ESO, photographed by the ESO Very Large Telescope,
Then there’s a small very interesting population of these stars. Sometimes when a star goes very close to its galaxies central black hole it can be accelerated through a slingshot effect to a large fraction of the speed of light. Anywhere between one tenth and a third of the speed of light. Although astronomers have spotted some very fast stars, the so called “hypervelocity stars” they haven’t found any quite so fast yet. But there could be as many as a thousand of these stars in every cubic megaparsec. That’s quite a large region - the volume of a huge cube, 3.262 million light years on a side, but of those, hundreds will be giant stars so could be spotted in future all sky surveys. And the James Web Space Telescope would be able to do a spectroscopic analysis.
These stars would have traveled billions of light years across a large part of the universe since they formed. And they would be ejected along with any tightly bound planets. So they could be a way for life to spread right across the large areas of the universe.
Yes there’s the star cluster. Stars are born in gas clouds like this.
Once the stars are mature, the dust gradually blows away. The Orion Nebula is the nearest star forming region to us. You can see...
(more)Yes there’s the star cluster. Stars are born in gas clouds like this.
Once the stars are mature, the dust gradually blows away. The Orion Nebula is the nearest star forming region to us. You can see it even with binoculars as a slightly fuzzy “star” in Orion’s sword.
Viewed close up with Hubble it looks like this:
We can see a later stage in this process in the Pleiades star cluster, aka Seven Sisters which is a bit to the right of Orion when you see Orion in the upright position as in that photograph above.
The stars are hot blue young stars less than 100 million years old and there is still a lot of dust which you see the light reflected off. Pleiades Most people can see several stars in this cluster. Not necessarily seven. Some see fewer and some see a lot more, depending on how good their eyes are and on how clear the sky is.
Between the Pleiades and Orion, you can see the Hyades, as a V shaped pattern of stars. If you look at it with binoculars you see many stars here. It’s a little older than the Pleiades at 625 million years old. The red star Antares, is not part of the cluster but a foreground star.
This shows it at the top along with another cluster Praesepe to scale:
To find out more with some more photos: V-shaped Hyades star cluster easy to find Hyades
These are all open clusters. They are all inside our galaxy and indeed quite close to the sun compared to the vast size of the galaxy though they are many light years away. The Hyades are 153 light years away and it has several hundred stars.
Notice that as they get older the stars spread out. Eventually they merge with the rest of the galaxy.
There are many smaller clusters also orbiting our galaxy. Many are the rather spectacular “Globular cluster” arranged in a spherical pattern.
A Swarm of Ancient Stars - GPN-2000-000930
Then there are the dwarf galaxies, like a galaxy but much smaller and they tend to be irregular in shape. We have two of those orbiting our galaxy as well, only visible from the Southern hemisphere
Magellanic Clouds ― Irregular Dwarf Galaxies.
There are many other small dwarf galaxies orbiting our galaxy, some very faint.
The stars that make up our galaxy are a mix of many stars that formed here in open clusters, as well as stars that were in earlier dwarf galaxies that merged with our galaxy.
Our sun was born in a gas cloud and we might be able to recognize our siblings by the composition. This seems very likely to be one of our siblings: HD 162826 - if so it is surprisingly close, only 110 light years away. It’s not visible to naked eye but can be seen in binoculars.
Solar Sibling HD 162826, see also The Sun's Family Photos
The open clusters are a good way of classifying stars up to a point but when they age the stars get scattered throughout the galaxy and even if you could locate them all they are not connected in any way except for their origin and composition.
So for larger regions of the galaxy they use the spiral arms structure. Our sun is part of the Orion Arm - Wikipedia
File:OrionSpur.png - Wikimedia Commons
This is a small part of the spiral structure of our galaxy which is like this - you can see the Orion-Cygnus arm and in the middle of it the solar system just above the center of the spiral:
Of course it is impossible to take a photograph of the milky way from this angle. But we can look deep into the galaxy edge on using various wavelengths and so work out what shape it must be.
The spiral arms are continually changing and stars continually move in and out of them. So this way of marking out regions in our galaxy is a bit like marking out patterns on a pond with ripples moving back and forth across it. But on the timescales of our lifetimes and indeed for thousands of years the structure will remain unchanged.
100 million animated stars in motion form natural spiral patterns. The patterns in our galaxy are reinforced because gas piles up in the spiral arms leading to birth of new stars there so the brightest youngest stars are formed in the spiral arms and they have such short lifetimes they fade and reach old age before they have time to leave the arms..
The actual word is “dukkha”. It’s sometimes translated as suffering. However it is more generally unsatisfactoriness. Sometimes as “stress”. But none of those really capture its meaning. What if yo...
(more)The actual word is “dukkha”. It’s sometimes translated as suffering. However it is more generally unsatisfactoriness. Sometimes as “stress”. But none of those really capture its meaning. What if you are experiencing nothing but happiness, a life of pure joy? Is that not possible? It would certainly be a life without suffering and without stress, and most would say, a life without any unsatisfactoriness either. If you asked someone who is experiencing nothing but pure joy for years on end, if any such people exist - would they say their life is unsatisfactory? Probably in most cases they would say “What are you talking about? Everything is great. My life is very satisfactory!”. Would that not be a life without dukkha?
Well - not really. Because however much pleasure and joy you have in this life, at some point your situation will change. The things you enjoy will be gone. The people you were friends with will be no more. Eventually you will die yourself.
We all know this. Buddha himself, according to the sutras, found ways to rest in very subtle states of mind from his teachers Alara Kalama, and Uddaka Rammaputa. But he decided that this wasn’t what he was looking for, that these teachings, though they lead to such refined states of mind, did not lead to the cessation of dukkha.
What if he had followed through and done those meditations for the rest of his life, and experienced nothing but pleasure, and more refined states even than pleasure, perhaps even for the rest of his life? Would that not be freedom from unsatisfactoriness? Well - not really.
Example, the pleasure you get from eating chocolate. However much you enjoy it, you can’t solve all your problems and reach permanent happiness by eating chocolate. If you feel that this is the solution to your problems, to eat as much chocolate as you can for the rest of your life, well that’s not going to work is it? You’ll soon get tired of chocolate, or eat so much you get sick, and then you have to find something else to find pleasure in.
So there is an unsatisfactoriness about it. Not really intrinsic to the chocolate. It’s more to do with the way we try to find a permanent happy place here in a world which is continually changing.
So, it was the same with these refined states of mind he found. That they did lead his mind to calm, peace, but it was not a permanent solution, no more than eating chocolate is. Was a peace that was much more long lasting, indeed maybe even after this life he’d have ended in a state without any body, just mind, calm peaceful mind, for trillions of years. Even if that was true, still, he concluded, that at some point the conditions that lead to him experiencing this would exhaust themselves, just as happens with the pleasure of eating chocolate, though not so immediately and not so easy to see - and then he’d be on to the search for the next way to find pleasure or peace of mind.
So - that’s what the teachings on dukkha are about. And the pleasure is good. Being happy is good. Indeed the Buddhist path is a path to happiness. Happiness for yourself and happiness for everyone else. But it’s a happiness not based on trying to make a permanent happy home in the changing world, but on relating in an honest direct way with the impermanence.
This is how Walpola Rahula puts it in "What the Buddha Taught", in his exposition of the first truth which is also what all the teachers I've heard have taught:
“First of all, Buddhism is neither pessimistic nor optimistic. If anything at all, it is realistic, for it takes a realistic view of life and the world. It looks at things objectively (yathābhūtam). It does not falsely lull you into living in a fool's paradise, nor does it frighten and agonize you with all kinds of imaginary fears and sins. It tells you exactly and objectively what you are and what the world around you is, and shows you the way to perfect freedom, peace, tranquility and happiness.”
Right, using that phase diagram:
(more)Phase diagram by Cmglee, wikipedia. Ice outside of Earth can be in many different phases. For instance in the outer solar system it is often so cold that it is in th...
Right, using that phase diagram:
Phase diagram by Cmglee, wikipedia. Ice outside of Earth can be in many different phases. For instance in the outer solar system it is often so cold that it is in the very hard orthorhombic phase, where it behaves more like rock than what we think of as ice. However ice on Mars is likely to be in the Ih phase similar to Earth life. The Mars surface is close to the triple point of solid / liquid / vapour in this diagram.
There the Ice VI (ice-six) triple point with liquid water and Ice V is at -0.16 °C, 632.4 MPa. So 632.4 MPa is as high pressure as you can get with liquid water at around 0 °C
That’s 6324 bars or the pressure at a depth of about 63.24 kilometers in a liquid ocean under Earth gravity.
Obviously a water planet smaller than Earth is going to have a lot less gravity than Earth. It’s tricky to work out the pressure at the center - it’s caused by all the layers above pressing down on it. The top layers of course contribute most pressure but all of them do right down to the central layers that have almost no effect. The maximum pressure is at the centre.
We want the maximum diameter of a planet with the pressure at the center low enough to remain liquid at various temperatures. I assume uniform density as water isn’t very compressible.
Calculation indented:
The equation is here: How to find the force of the compression at the core of a planet?
P = (2/3) * π * G * ρ^2 * R^2
There using SI units, the density of water, ρ = 1000 kg / m3, Pascal is the SI unit for pressure, and meter is the SI unit for length.
There P for Ice V at -0.16 °C, is 632.4 MP = 632.4*10^6 Pascals
G = 6.674×10^−11 N⋅m² / kg²
Want to solve for R.
So R = sqrt ( 632.4*10^6 / ((2/3) * π * 6.674×10^−11*10^6 )) meters.
= 2,127,029 meters or around 2,127 km
Trying another figure from that table, 355 K or 81.85 °C, pressure of 2.216 gigapascals, then it’s
sqrt ( 2.216*10^9 / ((2/3) * π * 6.674×10^−11*10^6 )) meters.
or about 3,982 km.
So we can have an ice free planet of pure water with temperatures of -0.16 °C and radius of around 2,127 km and at temperature of 81.85 °C and radius of about 3,982 km.
That’s for fresh water. A salty ocean would stay liquid at lower temperatures and higher pressures.
Compare the diameter of our Moon of 3,474 km, so it seems you could have a planet that’s a bit larger than our Moon, entirely of water, and still be habitable for at least some microbes. Indeed Hyperthermophiles have optimal temperatures above 80 °C (176 °F).
It would evaporate quickly though. I make it that a planet of water the size of Ganymede would evaporate away entirely probably within a few tens of millions of years. But it could slow down a lot if covered in a thin layer of organics as seems quite likely.
More on all this in my answer to: Do water planets exist?
Just to add a bit more, the ice sublimates (loosely, “evaporates”) very quickly, meters per day.
There’s a source here on sublimation of ice in a vacuum
New estimates for the sublimation rate for ice on the Moon
...
(more)Just to add a bit more, the ice sublimates (loosely, “evaporates”) very quickly, meters per day.
There’s a source here on sublimation of ice in a vacuum
New estimates for the sublimation rate for ice on the Moon
As you see, at room temperature it goes up to kilograms per hour at room temperature. I’m not sure what the exact figure is, but I know how to work it out for liquid water, calculation indented
With surface temperature of 273.15 °K (0 °C) and using the equation for mass loss of liquid water in a vacuum of
(pe/7.2) * sqrt (M/T) kg / m² / sec (equation 3.26 from Modern Vacuum Physics)
where M is the molar mass, 0.018 kg for water, T is the temperature in kelvin, pe is the vapour pressure, which for water at 0 °C (273.15 °K) is 611.3 Pa, (Vapour pressure of water at 0 °C), so putting all those into the formula we get:
(611.3/7.2) * sqrt(0.018/273.15) = 0.689 kg / m² / sec.
So you lose 24*60*60*0.689 or about 59.529 tons a day from each square meter surface of water.
Compare calculation results here: Modern Vacuum Physics where they use the vapour pressure for water at room temperature 295 K to calculate (2300/7.2) * sqrt(0.018/295) = 2.495 kg / m² / sec.
So at room temperature you lose 24*60*60*2.495 or about 215.6 tons a day from each square meter surface of water.
So at 0 C you’d still lose about 60 meters of water a day subliming into space.
I don’t know if the transition from ice to water makes a difference, but probably not that much. They use ice sublimators for spacesuits so it should be possible to find the figures for ice.
See also my Do water planets exist? - I found this question while researching for an update of my answer there.
It’s also relevant to the idea of liquid airlocks on the Moon. You can’t use liquid water but you could use ionic fluids. Same also for liquid mirror telescopes on the Moon. They would probably use ionic fluids too.
See also:
in my Case For Moon First
Well it depends on the size. We get hit by tiny chunks of rock all the time, every year and even smaller ones by the thousands during meteor showers, but they all burn up in the atmosphere. But you...
(more)Well it depends on the size. We get hit by tiny chunks of rock all the time, every year and even smaller ones by the thousands during meteor showers, but they all burn up in the atmosphere. But you probably mean large enough to get through the atmosphere probably and to hurt people.
So, first, you can see that the chance must be pretty small, because there has been no impact by a large asteroid or comet on any populated area for all of recorded history. Also the smaller ones are far more likely than the larger ones, as there are many more smaller ones than larger ones. The most likely impact is a 50 meters or less one. Not even as large as the Meteor crater in Arizona.
That’s a one kilometer diameter crater. Also it hit a desert. And, yes - an asteroid hitting Earth is most likely to hit a desert or the sea because though our Earth may seem crowded if you live in a big city, actually four fifths of our planet is water and most of what is left is unpopulated ice sheets, tundra, deserts, mountains etc.
Something this small would have no effect at all in the sea, not large enough for a tsunami and in a desert it would make a crater and kick up a bit of dust, but have hardly any effect on a wider scale. If it happened to hit a city of course it would be devastating, but the chance of that is tiny.
Meteor crater formed 50,000 years ago. We don’t have any records of anything as dramatic as that in recorded history. So, they are clearly not very likely. We’ve had many tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes, and a few really tiny craters forming, but nothing like Meteor crater, never mind anything larger.
As for even larger ones, the chance of being hit by a 10 km asteroid is pretty much eliminated, as we have plotted all the orbits of all the ones that could do flybys of Earth and they don’t hit us for the next several centuries. No surprise as it was only a 1 in a million chance per century anyway, but now we can rule that out. We can also rule out a 10 km comet because though we’d only spot it three or four years in advance, maybe a bit more than that, we get very few comets at present compared to asteroids. For every 146 asteroids that does a flyby of Earth you get only one comet. So - a comet might do a flyby of Earth but it is exceedingly unlikely for a comet say as big as 1 km or larger to hit Earth this century. We’d know about a 1 km comet also at least two years before it’s flyby.
But we do have some examples of deaths by smaller meteorites. Now that we’ve found all the 10 km asteroids that could hit us and shown they all miss, and are on track to find 99% of the ones of 140 meters upwards by the early 2030s, the attention is turning towards the smaller ones.
HISTORICAL DEATHS BY METEORITE
Sometimes you hear people say that nobody has ever been killed by a meteorite, but that’s not quite true. There have been a few fatalities. With the Chelyabinsk meteorite then there were some serious injuries, mainly from flying glass but nobody killed. You may also know of Anne Hodges who had a rather nasty bruise on her thigh from a meteorite.
The True Story of Ann Hodges: History's Only Meteorite Victim
That’s written before Chelyabinsk of course.
But, though very rare, there are quite a few historical accounts of injuries and of fatalities, including some very old ones that may be authentic. This is long before anyone knew or even guessed that asteroids existed or that meteorites came from the sky. It was a meteorite field fall in England, the Wold Cottage meteorite that eventually convinced the doubters. The theory that they came from space was only proposed the previous year in 1794, by Ernst Chladni
Wold Cottage meteorite in 1795. Confirmed the theory put forward only the previous year that meteorites came from space.
The historical records include e.g. many Chinese accounts of “iron rain” which made holes in houses and hillsides and killed people. They had no idea what they were of course. But looking back with the benefit of hindsight - what else could that be but meteorites?
There is one very early example where we know for sure it was a meteorite, the Ensisheim (meteorite). November 7, 1492, wheat field outside walled town of Ensisheim, Alsace, Further Austria (now France) This is a contemporary illustration of what happened.
And broadsheet about it:
The reason we know for sure what it is is that they dug it out at the time though of course they had no idea what it was. The villagers started to break it up but a local magistrate stepped in and preserved the stone to give to king Maxillian. So we have it to this day.
It’s a carbonaceous chrondite. So this definitely was a meteorite. Details here:
And there are several fatalities from the twentieth century that most don’t know about.
You are far more likely to be killed by lightning than by a small meteorite but it can happen - here are all the examples I’ve found of people being killed by meteorites, or injured or hit by one and not injured at all:
Papers here: Human casualties in impact events
and here: Meteorite falls in China and some related human casualty events
There's also a long list by the International Comet Quarterly with cites here Interesting meteorite falls which includes damage to buildings and other structures as well as deaths and injuries to people. More links: Death by Meteorite! Also a few in Historical Meteor Shockwave Events That Destroyed Structures. Then there’s Lewis’s book Rain Of Iron And Ice which I’ve just ordered but not read yet often referred to as a source on deaths by meteorite.
For anyone interested in researching into this topic, there’s a very long list of meteorite falls here also, in chronological order, inclusive, would need to check individual ones to find out more. Chronology of Earth Impacts as it is very inclusive. For instance, one of its sources is this web page which only gives sources for some of its entries so you’d need to do a lot of searching for sources to verify them: Meteorites, Asteroids, and Comets: Damages, Disasters, Injuries, Deaths, and Very Close Calls
One of the deaths in the Tuguska event is also described here:
‘Probably the closest observers were some reindeer herders asleep in their tents in several camps about 30 km (20 mi) from the site. They were blown into the air and knocked unconscious; one man was blown into a tree and later died. "Everything around was shrouded in smoke and fog from the burning fallen trees."’ 1908 SIBERIA EXPLOSION: Reconstructing an Asteroid Impact from Eywitness Accounts
And in more detail here:
“[O]f the approximately twenty people who were within fifty kilometers of ground zero, it appears that all were slightly injured (Lewis 1996)." Thousands of reindeer were killed, as well as some dogs. One elderly man was thrown against a tree during the blast and later died, presumably from his injuries, and another old man died of shock. Another man was thrown to the ground and bit off his tongue. Several people were knocked unconscious, and one family’s hut was blown into the air, causing bruises to all inside “
Quote from Lewis’s book Rain Of Iron And Ice: The Very Real Threat Of Comet And Asteroid Bombardment which I have ordered but don’t have yet, will update with more extensive quote when I have the book. Found it here: Meteorite Impact Structures Student Research
The second paper attempts to calculate the fatality rate based on the figures for China, which had a better information gathering network than most places.
Based on those figures and increase in population and the current population of Earth and its land area the authors estimate that we should get one fatal accident worldwide from meteorites every 3.5 years. If so it’s rather surprising given that we have had no reports of deaths at all by meteorite anywhere in the world since that one in 1907. Also based on current fireball statistics we’d expect only a 28% probability of a single casualty over that entire time period.
It’s strange. But anyway - this is by far the most likely kind of meteorite deaths to happen. One person most likely of all. Or perhaps a handful of people.
It’s hard to say quite what the risk is, because you get conflicting figures and we don’t know the numbers of the very small ones. Those Chinese figures suggest there may be more of them than we think. But there have been no fatalities published from the US, and only one injury in the last century, in 1954 when a meteorite bruised a lady’s leg. And surely it wouldn’t be under-reported in the US? Surely most people would recognize a meteorite if they saw one? So I think the chance can’t be that high for the US. Far lower than lightning anyway. Lightning kills about 100 people a year and injures about 1000 a year in the US. NOAA Lightning safety facts
WARNINGS OF SMALL METEORITES
We would have warnings for anything large unless it comes from the direction of the sun. We have a blind spot in that direction.
Sadly, radar doesn’t help until it is very close. The problem is that radar’s effectiveness drops off as the inverse fourth power - the light has to go out to the object you shine the radar at, then reflect back and come back to Earth. So unlike ordinary observation where if it is ten times further away it is a hundred times fainter - if it is ten times further away for radar, it is ten thousand times fainter. So radar can give you hardly any warning at all, minutes perhaps.
The meteorites also may come from an awkward direction and not spotted by our ICBM detection radars
That’s why the Russians didn’t spot the Chelyabinsk meteorite in advance Did Russian early-warning system see the meteorite?
The new ATLAS system: Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System can give early warnings from most directions, but it can’t do it if they come from the direction of the sun like the Chelyabinsk one. ATLAS can give warnings of from a week to several weeks for small objects unless they approach from the direction of the sun. ATLAS can detect a 120 meter diameter asteroid 3 weeks before impact unless it approaches form the direction of the sun when it couldn't detect it at all.
An asteroid from an awkward direction like that could still hit us with only a few hours of warning. A newly discovered asteroid did a flyby with very short notice earlier this year: Hours after discovery, asteroid swept by.
Note though that Chelyabinsk if it had been just a little larger, say 40 meters across, could have been spotted several months before the impact when it happened to be close enough to be seen - we just missed it because it was a little too faint.
FINDING MEDIUM SIZED ASTEROIDS 140 METERS UPWARDS
The Large Synoptic Survey telescope will find 80% of all NEOs larger than 140 meters within a decade, first light in 2021.
Rendering of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope
So by around 2030 we will already 99% of the ones from 140 meters upwards.
MIND THE GAP - 40 METERS TO 140 METERS
Hopefully we'll also have space telescopes by then which would be needed to fill the gap from 40 meters to 140 meters as well as to help find the last few of the larger ones. There’s a system we can use to do that which costs only $50 million using eight cubesats.
Below 40 meters they usually burn up in the atmosphere but can get to the ground at a steep angle depending what they are made of.
NEW DEVELOPMENT SYNTHETIC TRACKING OF ASTEROIDS
However there are new developments in asteroid tracking which may help here. Especially, use of synthetic tracking. The idea is explained in techy detail in this paper. Finding Very Small Near-Earth Asteroids using Synthetic Tracking. For an easier to read summary of it, see “Synthetic Tracking” Set to Revolutionise Near-Earth Asteroid Discovery
The idea is that instead of doing a 30 second exposure, you do many shorter 2 second exposures. With conventional CCD's that adds to the read noise so you get more errors but there are new CCD's developed for medical imaging that permit fast accurate reading, called Scientific CMOS detectors. The Andor Zyla is an example here.
Andor Zyla 5.5 | sCMOS Camera medical imaging camera capable of fast read out with low read error
You can then use this to simulate tracking the asteroid with the camera, which makes the asteroid far brighter in the images.
This image shows a the result of stacking many photographs of asteroid 2009BL with camera set to follow the stars on the left - notice how the asteroid is shown as a streak, and rather faint. On the right, the same photos are stacked to follow the asteroid which then shows as a much brighter spot, and the stars are streaked and fainter.
Image from: DETECTION OF A FAINT FAST-MOVING NEAR-EARTH ASTEROID USING THE SYNTHETIC TRACKING TECHNIQUE
When the asteroid is small and traveling faster across the field of view, the trail can be so faint it can’t be distinguished from background noise when the camera follows the stars. If you know its velocity you can make it much brighter by following the asteroid. But what can you do if you haven’t detected it yet and don’t know which way it is moving? The idea of synthetic tracking is that you take lots of short exposure photos and just try stacking them in many different ways until you find the right velocity and an asteroid pops into vie win the photo. This is time consuming but modern graphics cards permit fast parallel processing which makes synthetic tracking feasible.
This approach can make it easier to spot fainter asteroids. It might mean for instance that you can spot an asteroid ten times further away than before. That means a thousand times the volume of space covered. So this technique can lead to a huge increase in the detection of asteroids.
We could retire most of the asteroid impact risk for $50 million with this new technique
The researchers found that fewer than eight cubesats, fitted with 15 centimeter synthetic tracking telescopes could find more than 70% of NEO's larger than 45 meters in diameter in less than six years (these are the asteroids that are most hazardous for us). The total cost would be $50 million. With larger 30 cm telescopes then eight satellites could find 95% of the NEOs larger than 45 meters in diameter in the same time period of less than six years. For details see their 2016 Annual Progress Report.
$50 million is not a lot. Any developed country could find that out of loose change from its defense budget. $50 million spread over the US population, say, is a one off cost of 15 cents per person. In the UK we could do it for a one off cost of £1.60 per person - that's to find them for the entire world. As an example, the UK recently voted to renew Trident at a cost variously estimated at £40 billion to £205 billion ($50 billion to $256 billion). The cost of finding 70% of Near Earth Asteroids down to 45 meters within six years is a tiny 0.1% of that. We can certainly afford to do that.
See also my Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
And my Doomsday Debunked
Yes - first, they saw it low resolution while approaching Pluto. This was their last view of it:
Higher res here, photo from this article New Horizons Gets Its Last Look at the Far Side of Pluto
This...
(more)Yes - first, they saw it low resolution while approaching Pluto. This was their last view of it:
Higher res here, photo from this article New Horizons Gets Its Last Look at the Far Side of Pluto
This was our first reasonably detailed view, with the three very striking dark spots, but as you see from the image above, as it got closer these weren’t so obvious. The early photos used a lot of image processing to compensate for the low resolution so they knew there could be some artefacts - this image is made a bit sharper than it actually was originally:
By combining images they got a complete rotation of Pluto. It’s seen from an angle so there is a small area around the other pole missing
This video goes through it at various speeds, also does the Charon one
This is a Pluto flyby animation made from the images, so you can see how it was slowly spinning as New Horizons approached.
This is a global map in black and white
Higher res here from article Scientists assemble fresh global map of Pluto comprising sharpest flyby images
And an earlier colour map:
Higher res here, from New map of Pluto and Charon
They had an ingenious idea to photograph it using the dim light of Charon. That would have let them see its south pole, which is currently in permanent darkness. This is an artist’s impression done before the flyby of Pluto by moonlight:
Sadly, this didn’t work. The haze layers prevented them from seeing any details by “Charon light”. Before the encounter they thought some of the atmosphere would have collapsed out by now, as it has gradually moved a bit further from the sun since its perihelion (closest to the sun), but to their surprise it still has a thick atmosphere (for Pluto).
“It was initially thought that, as Pluto moves further out from the Sun in its orbit and temperatures fall, its atmosphere should gradually ‘collapse’, i.e. freeze onto the surface. However, data from New Horizons and ground-based observations currently suggest that it may remain gaseous, even at aphelion, although it wasn’t possible to fully resolve the issue during the encounter.
Leslie Young explains ‘We were hoping to image the pole of Pluto currently in shadow by reflected Charon-light, to try and analyse the ice cover there. However, the haze layers in its atmosphere prevented us doing so, so we can’t answer this question for now. We’ll need to continue Earth-based observations of Pluto over the next few decades to see whether or not collapse does occur.’”
However they did take some close up photos of the dark side with some light spilling around from the sunny side:
Higher res here
First,I’ve just come across this processed photo which showed what the Andromeda galaxy looked like if it was really bright
(more)Andromeda if it were brighter - see also Phil Plait’s article about it: Ye...
First,I’ve just come across this processed photo which showed what the Andromeda galaxy looked like if it was really bright
Andromeda if it were brighter - see also Phil Plait’s article about it: Yes, That Picture of the Moon and the Andromeda Galaxy Is About Right.
It may look far too large but you only see the central part of the galaxy by eye or with binoculars.
So, how could it get that bright? I think you need to answer that first.
If it is by having many more stars - well the Andromeda galaxy’s apparent magnitude is 3.4. Suppose it was made so bright it is as bright as a full Moon, so -12.6 then that’s 16 magnitudes difference in brightness. Five magnitude steps correspond to a factor of 100 in brightness, so - suppose it is only magnitude -11.6 just to make the calculations easier, then it’s 10,000 times brighter. So there are 10,000 times as many stars.
Well that would be true of our galaxy too, so at present the chance of a star getting as close as Neptune in a one million year period is 1 in 2.8 million. But if there were 10,000 as many stars, then it would be a chance of 1 in 280, so over the age of our solar system, we’d have many stars pass closer than Neptune. So our solar system wouldn’t be as stable.
The total integrated brightness of night sky is −6.50. make it 15 magnitudes brighter and that’s -21.5, about as bright as the Sun as seen from Saturn, and far brighter than the Moon. We wouldn’t have night; it would be quite bright all night and you’d see colour easily during the night time. The Moon wouldn’t make any noticeable difference to the brightness of the sky, even at full Moon.
So, anyway those are a few consequences but I’m sure there’d be many more.
If instead the stars are all somehow brighter, but same number, change in laws of physics, then we would need to be living on a planet more distant from the Sun because it would then be far too bright.
It’s fun to think about but it would all depend on how exactly the galaxies were brighter.
Another idea is just that our eyes are much more sensitive, in which case there’d be no consequences except that we’d all have superb night vision. I don’t see any reason why we couldn’t all have eyes able to see galaxies at night more easily. To start with, eyes like owls, adapted to see at night, larger eyes, more sensitive pigments in the retina etc. And then protection in daytime, just much smaller pupils to not let too much light in in daytime.
I just used Wikipedia as my source for those figures and didn’t bother to check them up yet, they are usually reasonably reliable about this sort of thing, so regard this as preliminary for now, I need to come back and check their sources for the figures:
Yes, there are such practices in Tibetan Buddhism. The breath meditation for one, which is taught to beginners. You can take that as your main practice and do it throughout your life. There’s absol...
(more)Yes, there are such practices in Tibetan Buddhism. The breath meditation for one, which is taught to beginners. You can take that as your main practice and do it throughout your life. There’s absolutely no need to do any other practice at all, if you connect well to the breath meditation. No need at all for any “deity visualization”.
Then of course, there is practicing basic morality, and practicing generosity, loving kindness, compassion, etc. That’s a sadhana too. Eventually your whole life is your sadhana. and there is no distinction between your meditation and your “ordinary life”. That again is part of the teachings of Tibetan Buddhism as in all the Buddhist traditions.
They aren’t “deities” anyway in the normal sense. Chenrezig for instance is meant as a visual representation that evokes unbounded compassion. If you connect to compassion, you connect to Chenrezig and it doesn’t matter what visual form you associate with it, or none.
The idea is that they are external not to us as such, but to our normal closed in limited way of looking at things. If I think of it as “my compassion” then it’s going to be limited, something I can possess. While if you relate to it as somewhat external then it may be easier to relate to it as the open unlimited compassion that you may think you aren’t capable of. But as they teach it, we all have that already.
So the only reason for doing those meditations is if you find they make a special connection with compassion, wisdom and so on. There isn’t any intrinsic value in learning to be able to visualize the actual form, except possibly as some kind of blessing connection to be able to do the practice properly in the future. For those who connect to them in that way they may find a special inspiration of that sort. They are images that Tibetan practitioners saw long ago, which they found brought the message of compassion to them in a vivid and immediate way.
Even if they have that inspiration and connection, the practitioners who do the “deity” practices need to drop all the images and visualizations at the end. Otherwise the very images that helped them connect to compassion and wisdom originally may become an obstacle preventing them from opening up to it completely.
Some people find a connection anyway without needing any images to help them.
You can also recite sutras as a form of meditation. For instance reciting the heart sutra is a popular practice in Tibetan Buddhism. You can also do “Tong len” - practices of exchanging self and other, in meditation. It often has visualization accompanying it, but it’s not what you are calling “deity visualization”. Many other such practices I’m sure.
But you don’t have to do those either. You can make the connection without any such practices. You can practice Tibetan Buddhism much as practitioners practice Zen Buddhism, or as the Therevadhans practice meditation, just with the breath, all the way through.
Sometimes the breath meditation is taught as if it was a form of shamatha meditation, with the aim to develop single pointedness or samadhi, as if the aim was to be able to focus more and more on the breath to the exclusion of everything else. You can do it like that. But you can also practice it with an open spacious quality, as you welcome your thoughts as friends and then return to the breath. Done that way, focusing and samadhi is not really what it is about. Indeed everything you need on the path is in this meditation.
I’ve been a Buddhist for over 35 years and my daily meditation is the basic meditation on the breath. There is no need at all to do anything else. My teacher taught me that you should treat whatever meditation you do as the only meditation needed on the path to enlightenment. That way you aren’t continually thinking “what if I did this other one instead”. You don’t need anything else. After all, according to the sutras, when Buddha himself became enlightened, the meditation he used was a simple meditation on the breath which he remembered doing as a young child. He didn’t do any of these elaborate “diety visualization” meditations, or even the “tong len” visualization. He just did the simple meditation on the breath.
If you go to Tibetan teachings you may find you are surrounded by people who are taking every possible initiation, who are visualizing maybe not just one but dozens of these “deities”. But you don’t have to do that. There is no need to take a single empowerment or to do a single visualization practice.
If you have a teacher or teachers who teach you meditation, try asking for help, or if necessary you may need to try other traditions. It’s definitely possible in the Tibetan traditions but your teachers may take a bit of convincing because they are so used to Westerners coming to them and saying “let me have this empowerment and this one and that one…” and they end up teaching them all sorts of practices just because they think that’s what Westerners want, not really based on whether they think they will help them. I’ve heard it described as like giving out sweeties (candy) to children. Teachers that don’t do that find that their students have a tendency to migrate to the teachers who do. Though they are usually careful not to teach them meditations that are actually harmful if used incorrectly.
It’s rather childish I think, The practices themselves are genuine. They do carry that inspiration if practiced properly, well see no reason to doubt that.
But what the Westerners do - apart from a few who probably do connect properly to the teachings - is more like a blessing connection. They aren’t really doing those practices, which they’d normally do only after working with a teacher for years, but rather they are making a connection with those visual forms which perhaps in the future in this life or another life might lead them to doing the practices properly.
So, if you don’t want to do it like that, well that sounds great to me :). Hope you find a teacher or teachers who can support you in it.
Also these practices in Tibetan Buddhism are often tied up with the idea of finding a guru. You don’t have to have a guru to do them. But many Westerners in the Tibetan traditions have a great urgency to find “their guru” as quickly as possible.
You don’t have to find a “guru” at all though. I don’t have one, after 35 years practicing as a Buddhist in mainly the Tibetan traditions. It’s good to have teachers, but finding yourself a guru is something else altogether. Only a few people ever have gurus even in Tibetan traditions, and it would normally happen only after several years of working with them (though for some people it can happen very quickly in some stories they meet someone and instantly take them on as their guru presumably because of some past connection in previous lives).
The idea is that we are caught up on focusing on our sense of self all the time. To follow advice of someone else lets you do things that are in some way - just slightly have a reduced sense of it all being about yourself and your decisions and so on. Helps to ease off slightly. That’s basically the reason that practitioners take on others as their guru. Nobody else can say to you that they are your guru. But you may meet someone who somehow manages that magic of helping you connect somehow to this wider approach, not so much that focus on self in everything you do.
But there is no need at all to do that either. Most Buddhists don’t even in the Tibetan traditions, many don’t even meditate either. In the southern schools they don’t even have this idea of a guru. Even in Zen Buddhism then the idea of a zen master is not really the same as the Tibetan idea of a guru. You don’t expect to see them as Buddha, while in Tibetan Buddhism the idea is that by seeing your teacher as Buddha you come to see all beings and the world itself also as your teacher and as Buddha.
“But please be very clear about this: Zen teachers are not gurus. They – we –are not perfect masters. A real Zen teacher is completely, unambiguously, human with a full complement of challenges and shortcomings. Every teacher has flaws. The task is not to find a perfect teacher (you can’t) but to find one who, warts and all, can be a good-enough guide on the Zen path. You need to he ready to be surprised.”
From Zen Master Who? A Guide to the People and Stories of Zen By James Ford extract on website of Soto Zen Buddhist Association
It’s also a natural thing, also, this teaching that comes from outside yourself and opens you up to something other than your narrow limited focus where you always are so aware of your self, present in every moment, even though you may not really be thinking about yourself as such. Even when you are thinking about others, helping others, there may always be this sense of yourself as the self who is doing all this, which you may begin to notice is having a limiting effect, narrowing your vision in a way. Once you notice this, you find you can’t do anything about it. If you try to do anything, then there is an even stronger sense of your self as the one who is trying to get out of this. It just makes it worse, though you may not realize you are doing this. So that may be a point where you look outside, to try to find an “other” who can help you out of this situation.
Well, you don’t have to take on a guru in a formal way in order to get this “other” perspective breaking through. Might be something your teacher says, ordinary teacher not a guru in the formal sense. Maybe something someone does in your daily life that opens you to compassion and wisdom in a way you didn’t realize was possible. It can also be a message from seeing a flower, hearing a bird sing, watching a stream or a wave in the sea, as in the flower sermon of Zen Buddhism.
(What is the Flower Sermon and what is its significance for Zen Buddhism?)
Buddha didn’t have a guru in the story of the Pali canon. But - he doesn’t do it all by himself either. He has the four signs for instance, when he sees a sick person, and old person, a dying person and a mendicant. Those were his guru, I think you can say. Also as a young child when he sat beneath a rose apple tree and spontaneously entered a deep meditation state - perhaps that is like the external world also - creating a moment somehow that let him meditate in response. That’s what he remembered when he wondered how to proceed just before the night when he became enlightened.
Also there’s the meal of rice milk given to him by Sujata - his first meal for 49 days which gave his body the nutrition it needed for his meditation when he became enlightened. That again was his teacher in a way, the world coming together to create conditions for him to be able to reach enlightenment.
Sujata offering milk-rice to the Buddha and the slave girl Punna is watching
For a short life of the Buddha: Life of the Buddha (in art) - The Metropolitan Museum of Art
It’s the same in the Tibetan teachings - even in the stories that bring out guru devotion at its strongest, it’s not just the guru on his or her own guiding the practitioner. Throughout, their life weaves in with teachings from the world, for instance Milarepa’s broken pot, this is when he was living on nettles which he cooked in a pot and which turned his body green:
“One day Milarepa happened to stumble outside his meditation cave Dragkar-taso while he was quite naked and carried an earthen pot - he was almost always quite naked. He slipped on a stone right outside the cave and fell down. The handle broke, the pot rolled away from him and broke asunder, but then another pot emerged from inside of the broken pot. The new pot was green and made of encrusted nettle soup that had fastened on the wall of the earthen pot. Now Milarepa understand how little lasting earthly things were, and sang a song:”
“The pot of clay once existed, but now it does not.
“This is how all things must pass sooner or later.
“Therefore I shall carry on.
“The pot was all I owned.
“By breaking into a thousand pieces, it has become my guru (teacher).”
So if you don’t buy into this whole idea of doing the “deity” practices, or the idea that there is an urgent need to find yourself a guru, or indeed find one at all in this life, well it may be just that you have a slightly more mature approach to it all :). But do be compassionate towards the child-like other practitioners. It doesn’t mean you are on a better path than them. It’s just a difference of personality and approach. There are many stories of people reaching enlightenment through faith and devotion and sometimes the simplest of practices .
For some people the faith based approach, with deity visualization practices that they don’t really understand, and haven’t really connected to, just doing them because they think that’s what they need to do, and everyone else is doing them, and because they like doing the practices, a bit like a child asking for sweeties - but that they have a lot of faith in them - that may work for them. Even if they aren’t connecting to the inspiration of unbounded compassion or wisdom when they do the practices, still they may work for them even so, make a connection, their minds calmer, happier, easier to connect to compassion and wisdom and so on in the ordinary sense, because their minds are calmer. And if nothing else they may well be doing it as a kind of Shamatha or mindfulness practice, helping to calm their minds down by focusing on a single image. And amongst the many thousands of Westerners who do these practices, there surely are a few who are doing them properly, truly are connecting to unbounded open compassion and wisdom whenever they do those meditations, not just doing some kind of mindfulness of form.
Yes, I’ll do this based on the ones people talk about most in my experience. If you want to make your own solar systems, play around with it, do things like adding so much hydrogen to a planet that...
(more)Yes, I’ll do this based on the ones people talk about most in my experience. If you want to make your own solar systems, play around with it, do things like adding so much hydrogen to a planet that it turns into a star. Universe Sandbox is the one that you hear most about.
There’s an older version which has a simulation of our solar system without any moons and which you can use for free, it’s just a gravity simulator.
The new version lets you do much more, for instance simulate colliding planets and moons, add water to a planet to create oceans, etc. Here is someone trying it out
Here is someone just having fun with the presets that come with the program - you can for instance collide two Earth’s together, you can keep adding hydrogen to our Earth until it turns into a sun, and so on.
They have a long list of other apps in their FAQ, where you can also read about the approximations they use for their simulation (e.g. they use Newtonian gravity instead of General Relativity - because otherwise it would need a super computer, in our solar system this would only make a noticeable slight difference to the orbital period of Mercury.).
Then there’s Celestia, which is free and open source, often used by astronomers, let’s you explore our solar system and galaxy and add many pre-defined new objects created by users, including spacecraft, stars, planets.
There’s NASA Eyes which is updated with new discoveries as they are made, i s great if you want the orbits of some of the newest objects in our solar system. Explore Pluto’s system of moons for instance. Also to simulate spacecraft missions in detail. Lots of presets. The preview here shows a simulation of the landing of Curiosity on Mars.
Next there’s “Space Engine” which includes large databases of galaxies, stars, planets and minor planets. But it also has numerous procedurally generated stars and planets too. Right out to the edge of the observable universe.
Space Engine - the universe simulator
If you are interested in spacecraft then the Orbiter simulation is rather amazing. This whole video is a simulation, not the real thing, and you can navigate to look at it from all angles when you use the program:
It’s rather geeky because it is so exactly simulated, also interface can be a bit clunky, though with some preset scenarios you can just run. It’s much easier to control with a joystick than with a mouse, so it’s well worth getting a joystick for it, if you don’t have one. Orbiter - Download
For many more apps see the FAQ for Universe Sandbox
They are no longer caught up as we are with the cycle of Samsara. For them even dying, sickness, and injury is not dukkha or unsatisfactoriness. So they don’t have to defend themselves for their own sake.
...
(more)They are no longer caught up as we are with the cycle of Samsara. For them even dying, sickness, and injury is not dukkha or unsatisfactoriness. So they don’t have to defend themselves for their own sake.
But they may well do it for the benefit of others. First, if they die, that means we lose our connection with them, and they can’t help us in the same way. And if damaged that may impact on how they can help others in practical ways. It’s also natural, our bodies protect themselves anyway. If you get sick, your body will protect itself against the invading germs. If your skin gets cut, then it will protect itself by healing its skin to prevent harmful organisms from entering the skin.
As well as that though, if someone harms a Buddha then it is cutting off their connection to enlightenment in a rather strong way. It’s not easy to harm a Buddha because they are so open to everything around them, at least according to the stories in the sutras and elsewhere, there are stories in the sutras of various people and beings trying to harm the Buddha and they couldn’t succeed. But if you do, then it is cutting off your connection with them, and more generally with the openness of enlightenment itself.
Then, there’s the question, is someone a Buddha or not? You can come to see enlightened activity in others and for a Buddha then according to some of the teachings in some of the schools they see all beings as Buddha. So it’s not like there is an objective test to see if someone is Buddha.
Also - Buddhas because they are not caught up in the illusions of Samsara - they can do things that benefit us without any worries about how it will reflect back on them. They don’t care if everyone in the world thinks they are a terrible person. Nor do they care if everyone decides to give them a big medal for bravery and courage and generosity. So, that’s just not a motivation, so if defending themselves, or some other forceful action is what their compassion and openness and wisdom leads them to do, they just do it.
Also enlightened beings continue to have a history, a past. Buddha himself was born in a particular place, became enlightened at a particular spot, grew old, got sick, died. So there is a person, as we understand it and them becoming enlightened didn’t change that. So in that sense there is a person to be injured, to die. There is something to protect there. So you can’t say that because they have realized non self, that there is nothing left to protect. In a way there is, in a wya there isn’t.
Also as for their self not existing, well nor does yours nor mine, in the sense in which you can come to see the truth of non self. Buddhas don’t achieve anything or go anywhere when they reach enlightenment. They just see a truth that is open for all of us to see. They don’t destroy their self, because it was never there to be destroyed. They don’t build up an illusion of non self either. Some meditators may do that They may get so caught up in trying to see non self that they build up an idea of “non self” which they then have to defend, for instance they might try to defend that idea that they have realized non self, by not defending themselves against aggression. But an enlightened person doesn’t have an idea of non self to defend either.
So you can actually equally ask the question of yourself and myself. Why do I defend myself when my self doesn’t really exist in the sense that I think it does? Why do I always act as if it does?
If this is puzzling for a Buddha, then it is equally puzzling for us. And, though it may seem that I am doing it for entirely selfish reasons, it might also be that if looked at in just a slightly different way that it is enlightened activity. As I’ve been taught it by my teachers, it’s such a tiny change, really nothing changed at all. Like waking from a dream. Our awakened mind is plain to see all the time and it’s because it is so clear and obvious, if we could but see it, that we miss it, over and over, never see it.
Oh, and in case this sounds like a Vulcan like coldness, well, no, as described in the teachings and stories to help us understand enlightenment, Buddhas are immediate in their actions. They don’t have to do long trains of rational thought to decide what to do, or stamp down on bothersome emotions in every moment, not as it is understood in the Buddhist teachings in the sutra traditions.
In every moment they respond appropriately, that’s their wisdom, what’s sometimes inaccurately translated as omniscience. It doesn’t mean that they know e.g. the position of every rock on Mars :). Buddha often showed that he didn’t know things in that sense, that his followers did things he hadn’t expected, events in the world happened that he couldn’t have predicted. For instance the story of the monk who he sent off to get robes so that he could ordain him, and who was gored by a cow, and never came back to him (that’s Pukkusāti in the Dhātuvibhanga Sutta). But each moment has the wisdom and understanding to respond to it built right into it. So they may do forceful action, spontaneously and surprisingly. They have something equivalent to our strong anger, but instead of a fierce rage, and the other negative emotions, without the strong narrow focus we have in every moment, on the self that isn’t actually there, they have a clear and strong love, compassion and other positive qualities. The full range of things we can do, they can also, but without that narrow focus, it becomes positive, open, compassionate, loving and wise conduct.
What he said may have been misreported in the Los Angeles Times.
Here is the official account:
(more)“His Holiness then answered questions, some of which were submitted through the Internet. The first ques...
What he said may have been misreported in the Los Angeles Times.
Here is the official account:
“His Holiness then answered questions, some of which were submitted through the Internet. The first question was on His Holiness’ emphasis on compassion as a basis of ethics. It asked whether in some situation ensuring justice is more important than being compassionate to the perpetrator of a crime. It referred to the news of the death of Osama Bin Laden and the celebrations of it by some, and asked where compassion fit in with this and ethics. In his response, His Holiness emphasized the need to find a distinction between the action and the actor. He said in the case of Bin Laden, his action was of course destructive and the September 11 events killed thousands of people. So his action must be brought to justice, His Holiness said. But with the actor we must have compassion and a sense of concern, he added. His Holiness said therefore the counter measure, no matter what form it takes, has to be compassionate action. His Holiness referred to the basis of the practice of forgiveness saying that it, however, did not mean that one should forget what has been done.”
The Office of His Holiness The Dalai Lama
So, this is just a different way of thinking about things from the way we look at it in many Western ethical discussions. He’s saying that, if you are following the path of compassion, then whatever you do, whether it is taking him prisoner, or killing him, or doing nothing, whatever action you do, that it has to be done as a compassionate action - including compassion towards Osana Bin Ladin himself.
It’s hard for us to think of killing someone as a compassionate action. But it could be if you think that the harmful actions they do have effects back on them, in future lives or whatever might be their future after they die. If by killing him you prevent him from causing great harm to many people, then it might be compassionate action, not just to them, but to himself also.
While, if you kill him just out of anger and rage, then it’s not compassionate, even though the action may be the same and perhaps no onlooker can tell the difference. When Buddhist teachers talk about such things, they don’t say that any actions are compassionate or otherwise just on the basis of what you do. Always, your motivation is what makes it compassionate.
Give everyone in the world a meal, say, but you do it in a narrow selfish way, maybe to try to get them all to praise you, then there may be some compassion mixed in but it’s very limited.
Give a single person a glass of water, and your compassion could be so boundless that your action is vast beyond measure. That also is why they say you should never feel that you are too poor, or too limited in any way to be compassionate. You can be compassionate in that vast way even with a single glass of water.
In the West when we discuss ethics, we tend to just ignore whatever are the motivations behind the actions. We want to know “What should I do in this situation, what are the rules to govern my conduct”. It’s all about, should I do X in situation Y and A in situation B? We feel we can weigh everything up and decide in some objective way how compassionate someone is from the things they do, or to decide in any situation what is the ethical way to behave.
But in the Buddhist path and teachings, then you may get an answer about developing compassion and wisdom, and you are put back on the spot yourself ,asked to work on your own motivation and understanding. That’s something that you can’t get anyone else to do for you. You can’t hand off the decision making to some third party and then say that whatever you did is their responsibility. It doesn’t work like that.
So, you can’t expect the Dalai Lama to tell people what to do, just to give guidelines and suggestions. He’s not like a Pope. He can’t tell anyone what to do.
Now we do have vows also in the Buddhist teachings. Many Buddhists take a vow of not killing, for instance. Killing a human being is an absolute breach of that vow.
But even vows are not thought of as the final arbiter - they don’t get you out of this need to think for yourself and relate to your own compassion and wisdom. Most of the time then the vows will help to quiet your mind, which is their purpose. There are many things you don’t have to give any thought to. But the vows have many levels to them. The vow of not killing also applies even to insects. You do your best not to kill insects as well, the reason is not so much to save their lives - which are so short anyway. There’s no way you could save the lives of all insects no matter what you do, just postpone the inevitable. It’s more to do with training your mind, opening your mind to compassion and sensitivity even to the plight of an insect in its tiny world with its limited perception.
So all the time these vows get you thinking and working with yourself, your wisdom and compassion.
And then, there might be a situation where your compassion leads you to break one of those vows. An example my teacher used to give was - that if you are in a city and you see someone about to detonate a nuclear bomb, and the only way to stop them is to kill them - it might then be a compassionate action to kill them. First, of course, it’s compassionate to all the people that they will kill, but also for them too, because by killing so many people they are engaging in an act of great violence that will impact on themselves in an immediate way in future lives. Or whatever future there is after they die, since generally one wants to keep an open mind about what happens if you don’t know for sure.
So, it would be hard to do that as an act of pure compassion. Maybe if you have great wisdom and insight, and a very open mind, you could kill someone who is trying to kill thousands or millions of people with a mind that has nothing but deep and strong compasssion towards them, not a trace of anger or even annoyance. But chances are that you do feel irritated and probably scared, and angry. Still though that makes the action confused, you can still act out of compassion as best you can, your best approximation. And even if you can’t, still you may do it.
So - there’s no obligation to kill them. It’s not a rule. It’s actually breaking your vow of not killing if you took such a vow. That you act out of compassion doesn’t change anything about that, you are still someone who broke that vow. And if you have some anger then this is going to be an action that harms your own mind, in the way anger does, but even more so because you actually killed someone. So it would be mixed in its effects.
~So, in that situation nobody else, not the Buddha, not the Dalai Lama, could tell you what you should do in that situation. It’s you, there, in that situation, fully responsible, fully yourself, nobody else can do it for you. You then make the best decision you can in that situation. And then you live with the consequences, whatever they are.
So that’s how Buddhist think about such things. So the Dalai Lama couldn’t be saying that the US should kill Osama Bin Laden or any particular thing. For that matter he wasn’t there, he didn’t know the particulars of the situation. Was he armed or not armed? Many accounts have said he wasn’t armed and so could have been taken captive and not killed. Did they believe him to be armed - only they can know that for sure. But even if you knew everything about the situation, the decision is still up to the individual on the spot there. And you can’t tell them what to do because their action will have consequences and it’s for them to decide whether to accept those consequences whatever they are, and they, and you also, can’t know all the rammifications either of those consequences.
So the Dalai Lama’s advice here for someone who wants to follow the path of compassion is that you sometimes have to take forceful action, but when you do so, that you should do it as best you can out of compassion, even towards whoever it is you have to take the forceful action against, whatever the action is.
So, I hope that’s a bit clearer.
Well not sure I do it as quickly as that, but I do answer many questions quite quickly with long detailed answers. In my case I’m a reasonably fast typist , not professional levels but not too bad ...
(more)Well not sure I do it as quickly as that, but I do answer many questions quite quickly with long detailed answers. In my case I’m a reasonably fast typist , not professional levels but not too bad - you need that of course, touch type, 60 wpm upwards. Also have been following my specialist topics for a long time, some of them since the 1960s. Read a lot. So - when you are familiar with the topic then it is much easier to remember things. So, I remember things I’ve read or heard in those areas.
So for instance in a question about tides - I already know that some parts of the world have one tide a day, some have two tides, some have more than two tides. Most people wouldn’t know that but that’s just because I’ve been interested in general science topics since my early teens, nearly half a century ago, and I find it interesting, so just remember things like that. It’s the sort of thing that once learnt, I probably won’t forget.
Also, I know roughly how the tides are created and so on. Also one of my sisters lives by the sea and when I stayed with her for a few months then I saw the tides continually changing and being mathematically inclined it was an incentive to find out all about how tides work. And that was just a few years back so reasonably fresh in my memory.
So then I know what to look for, but don’t have the citations to hand. So, it’s a case of googling, for instance in a google images search for a map of the parts of the world with the different types of tides, I found this very useful map:
Here the places with diurnal tides - so just one tide a day - are marked in yellow. The ones with two high tides a day are marked with red coastlines, and others shown in blue have mixed tides somewhere between the two. See NOAA's National Ocean Service: Low tid
That often then leads me to pages written by experts, papers in google scholar, NOAA in this case pages and so on . So I can read those and summarize what they say. I’m a fast reader which helps. Then I find wikipedia useful also. They often get some of the details wrong, but have lots of cites so I follow up the cites - and then sometimes correct the original articles if I find they made a mistake.
This is my tides answer; Why are tides caused by the Moon rather than the Sun?" Though just realized, reading it now, I never said anything about the interesting phenomenon of the double high tide at Southhampton, done it now. I don’t know how long it took, probably several hours. But much faster than if I hadn’t known that stuff already.
For other answers, there’s also copy / paste. Sometimes I can answer a question using a copy / paste of a section of a longer blog post on that topic. So sometimes I answer several answers quickly and they are mainly copy / paste with some editing.
Otherwise, well it’s more than an hour per answer for the long detailed ones. But I might edit it for quite a while when I publish it. So if you see several soon after each other, well it doesn’t include the amount of time spent on the first one (I think). The most important thing though is the accuracy. I did postgraduate research into maths / philosophy and learnt a lot in the process about how to identify reliable sources - what to look out for, how to tell what is accurate and what isn’t - even amongst published scientific papers there are low quality and high quality ones, so you get used to that, to being able to tell that.
Nostrodamus was a sixteenth century apothecary and seer. He didn’t make any predictions for 2017. His only dated prediction is this one apparently
(more)"L'an mil neuf cent nonante neuf sept mois,
Du ciel...
Nostrodamus was a sixteenth century apothecary and seer. He didn’t make any predictions for 2017. His only dated prediction is this one apparently
"L'an mil neuf cent nonante neuf sept mois,
Du ciel viendra un grand Roi deffrayeur:
Ressusciter le grand Roi d'Angolmois,
Avant après Mars regner par bonheur."Translation:
"The year 1999, seventh months,
from the sky will come the great King of Terror,
bringing back to life the great King of the Angolmois.
Before and after, Mars reigns by good fortune."
There apparently Angolmois is a region in the south of France but has been interpreted as an approximate anagram of Mongolois - the Mongols.
This is one guess at what it meant from before 1999
"The gist therefore seems to be that in July 1999 a possibly appeasing Pope will in some way stir up a leader with Mongol (or possibly Lombard) connections (some French observers prefer to take the word 'Angolmois' literally, and refer it to the former François I, who was duke of Angoulême), with the result that a previously raging war will accidentally flare up again."
Obviously that didn't happen, or indeed anything much else. That is unless with hindsight you apply numerology and claim that he was actually predicting something else. This page claims it is a prediction of 9/11. So anyway that is the only prophecy he made with a date attached. But enthusiasts try interpreting his vague words to mean other things, use numerology, anagrams and so on to extract meaning from them.
For instance, one of the most recent:
These most recent predictions are particularly absurd, published in the Sun (UK Red top tabloid - noted for the way they publish sensationalist stories often with no fact checking and often out and out hoaxes): 'Nostradumus doomsday comet' set to bombard Earth with meteors TONIGHT
Remember that Nostradamus was a sixteeenth century Frenchman.
Portrait of Michel de Nostredame (Nostradamus) by his son César de Nostredame
The predictions come from Axel Noudelman who calls himself a “Digital marketing executive” - he has managed to market these predictions anyway: Top 10 Nostradamus Predictions for 2017
Here are three that seem particularly absurd:
3. Commercial Space Travel
Commercial space travel is the real deal, but beyond orbital flights things will become exponentially more difficult. The moon, asteroids and mining missions are unlikely targets within the next two years.
The first person to hypothesize that meteorites came from space was Ernst Chladni in the late eighteenth century. Before then, the consensus of everyone, including scientists, was that the rocks known as meteorites came from volcanoes or were stones lifted up in strong winds. So he can't have predicted anything about asteroids as he didn't know that such things were possible
4. Wars over Global Warming
Nostradamus believed the possibilities of ‘Hot Wars’ could be escalated in 2017 due to global warming and diminishing resources. As far as the warfare itself goes, the greatest threat in the future will be terrorists and bio-attacks.
He wouldn’t have known anything about global warming or bio-attacks
6. Cloud Computing Will Disappear
Nostradamus also predicted that the term ‘cloud’ will disappear from the phrase ‘cloud computing’ by 2017 because most of the computers will simply be assumed to be done in the cloud.
He knew nothing about computers and calculators except for humans calculating by hand. The first mechanical calculator that we might recognize as such is Pascal's calculator from the seventeenth century, a century after Nostradamus.
The idea of programming didn’t develop until the nineteenth century with Ada Lovelace
Ada Lovelace who worked out programs for Babbages mechanical calculator and so is often regarded as the world’s first programmer
So I think you can see that the idea that Nostradamus predicted anything about computing or cloud computing is rather absurd.
For more about this, see Debunked: Nostrodamus predicted the end of the world on [insert date here] by Robert Walker on Debunking Doomsday
Yes, though it needs a very flexible mind. Elaine MacInnes is a Catholic nun and missionary, and also a Zen roshi or Zen master. See Nun draws on Zen Buddhism to enrich Catholicism
It doesn’t matter...
(more)Yes, though it needs a very flexible mind. Elaine MacInnes is a Catholic nun and missionary, and also a Zen roshi or Zen master. See Nun draws on Zen Buddhism to enrich Catholicism
It doesn’t matter that the teachings are incompatible. If you have that flexibility of mind.
The Rime teachings of Tibetan Buddhism may help. It’s a half hour talk but Ringu Tulku talks here about how Tibetans learnt to deal with the situation that they have several mutually incompatible branches of Buddhism - they contradict each other just as much as e.g. Catholic teachings contradict Protestant teachings in Christianity. Could you be simultaneously Quaker and Catholic for instance? Well yes, you could if you have that flexibility of mind though for most people it would be very confusing to whole heartedly follow both at once.
Tibetans with a similarly flexible approach are able to study simultaneously in all four traditions and to follow the practices of all four. The Dalai Lama is an example. So also is Ringu Tulku. And here he talks about how you can use this approach with all religions and paths, About how it is respecting the diversity, and that differences are good.
For the historical background to this approach in Tibetan Buddhism,s see Ringu Tulku's introduction "What is Rime" in his book "The Rime Philosophy of Jamgong Kongtrul the Greats.
Ringu Tulku is a teacher who doesn't put on airs and is very modest and humble but also counts amongst the more learned of the Tibetan teachers, a professor of Tibetology who has also mastered the teachings and practices of all the four schools of Tibetan Buddhism.
To actually practice two different paths wholeheartedly at once is only for people with very flexible minds, and there are many impediments in the way for most of us. However much one might want to do it in some cases, most of us just can't. I know I couldn't do it, even though I was brought up a Christian and practiced wholeheartedly as a Christian and now practice whole wholeheartedly as a Buddhist. It took me several years to make the transition and the idea of practicing both at once is way beyond me.
And - this is not a Borg type approach of assimilation - you know, how the Borg in Star Trek say
"We are the Borg. Lower your shields and surrender your ships. We will add your biological and technological distinctiveness to our own. Your culture will adapt to service us. Resistance is futile."
That’s not respecting and valuing the differences. That’s like the Vikings looting the sacred books of Christian monasteries for their gold and jewels. You might end up with something of value for your religion, but without its original context and inspiration, often it ends up as a hodge podge of ideas grabbed from here, there and everywhere.
But we can all respect other paths, and approaches, and the integrity of the people who follow them, and value the differences, and enjoy talking to others of other religions and be enriched by the experience, learning about how they understand things and their path and talking about our own path with them. Also, I think it’s inspiring to all of us that it’s possible at all to practice two such distinctive religions at the same time.
Neil Hiatt in his answer to Can I be both Christian and Buddhist? says this is not possible because the Bible says you can’t be both. For some people, it is impossible, unthinkable even. That's part of their path. So you need to respect that. To do otherwise is not respecting and valuing the differences.
However it depends on how you think about the Bible, and also the Bible often contradicts itself. It's not a legal document, it's a collection of writings that Christians think is inspired by God.
If you say it is something Christians can’t do, do you mean "According to God", or "According to Jesus", if so how do you know? Do you mean "According to the Bible"? If so it is interpreted in many different ways. Do you mean "According to some particular Christian teacher who you respect, minister, pastor or some such"? If so, well it's your choice to follow their path but other Christians don't have to. Same also if you just mean "according to my own interpretation of Christianity".
And it’s the same the other way too. Buddhists do have beliefs and faith and commitments. The main one is that Buddha outlined a path that can lead one to a truth that one can come to see for oneself. It's a commitment to a particular path and approach. If you look at it on paper like a legal document, then it's inconsistent with Christianity too, to commit to revealed truth in a scripture, to say that you know there is a God, to say that you know that Jesus loves you, to say that you will go to heaven when you die, that you know that because the Bible says so, anything like that is saying that you have decided not to have an open mind in particular topic areas - at least, if you say you believe that in the sense that you know that there is no need to look at it any more because it is decided for you already. That's going against the openness of the Buddhist path.
So there are issues that way too. That's the main reason I'd find it really hard to practice the Christian path at the same time as the Buddhist path, because how can you do that and a the same time keep the openness of the Buddhist path? It's like as a Christian you can question almost anything depending what path you follow but there is always some core of things you are sure of, even if you doubt it, your aim is to see through those doubts and to get back to faith in those things.
But if you have the flexibility of mind and approach, you can handle that and it's not a problem for you. Somehow.
And after all you can be brought up as one and then transition to the other. What's to stop you from doing that transition quickly, even many times a day? Just that ones mind isn't flexible enough. If your mind has the flexibility, what's to stop you from following both paths at once - doing Christian practices wholeheartedly as a Christian and Buddhist practices wholeheartedly as a Buddhist? And if you find that you can integrate them both in your life, contradictory though that seems to others - well if you find you can do it and it causes no problems and you find they help and enrich each other in your life, again what’s the problem? It could be like friends from different religions working together in their lives towards something they couldn’t achieve separately.
Unless someone comes along from your church or temple and says "Look you have to stop doing this or you'll be expelled and we won't let you in any more" in which case it is a society thing rather than anything intrinsic to the religious paths you are following.
Elaine MacInnes shows by example that it is possible.
I think it would be more accurate to say that the path of the Buddha is about seeing the truth. It’s a truth you find out for yourself. Buddha just pointed in a direction. That’s what the analogy o...
(more)I think it would be more accurate to say that the path of the Buddha is about seeing the truth. It’s a truth you find out for yourself. Buddha just pointed in a direction. That’s what the analogy of the finger and the Moon is about. If you think what Buddha taught was the truth, an intellectual truth that you need to learn, that’s mistaking the finger for the Moon.
His starting point though are truths that we can all share, and see to be true from our own experience. We all know what suffering is from our own experience, we know that things change. Buddha taught a path that continues from that starting point, to see the truth for ourselves, whatever it is. Walpola Rahula put it like this in his summary of the The First Noble Truth
“First of all, Buddhism is neither pessimistic nor optimistic. If anything at all, it is realistic, for it takes a realistic view of life and the world. It looks at things objectively (yathābhūtam). It does not falsely lull you into living in a fool's paradise, nor does it frighten and agonize you with all kinds of imaginary fears and sins. It tells you exactly and objectively what you are and what the world around you is, and shows you the way to perfect freedom, peace, tranquility and happiness.”
Another quote from him: The Third Noble Truth
"It is incorrect to think that Nirvana is the natural result of the extinction of craving. Nirvana is not the result of anything. If it would be a result, then it would be an effect produced by a cause. It would be sankhata ‘produced’ and ‘conditioned’. Nirvana is neither cause nor effect. It is beyond cause and effect. Truth is not a result nor an effect. It is not produced like a mystic, spiritual, mental state, such as dhyana or samadhi. TRUTH IS. NIRVANA IS. The only thing you can do is to see it, to realize it. There is a path leading to the realization of Nirvana. But Nirvana is not the result of this path.You may get to the mountain along a path, but the mountain is not the result, not an effect of the path. You may see a light, but the light is not the result of your eyesight.
...
In almost all religions the summum bonum can be attained only after death. But Nirvana can be realized in this very life; it is not necessary to wait till you die to ‘attain’ it."
CONNECTION WITH THE TRUTHS OF SCIENCE
This approach has a lot in common with science, but in scientific research, all that matters is to have a good intellectual understanding. Which of course is very important, but is that all there is to it?
It's the difference between knowing intellectually what suffering is and actually experiencing suffering. Or knowing intellectually that some people experience wonder when they look at the stars, or a flower, or whatever it is, and actually experiencing that wonder, and letting it really hit you. It’s the same also with philosophy, academic philosophy is a bit like Buddhism in some ways but without this idea that it makes any difference to see the truths directly.
So for instance, to really understand that things change, let it soak into your very being, then there are many understandings come from that. Actually New Year is a great time to think about impermanence, because it is all about the start of a new year, fresh starts. Every moment can be a fresh start. Just intellectually understanding that things change is not like that.
Much of the Buddhist path consists of taking truths that we can all see quite easily, such as those ones, and then really and truly internalizing them. Wisdom comes from that. Then finally - according to the teachings anyway - they say that there are truths that you can see directly in the same way that are impossible to understand intellectually, your intellectual understanding is such a pale shadow of them, it's like the finger pointing at the Moon.
Science is very open to change. Even a single experiment (e.g. a single observation of changed positions of stars when close to the Sun) can overturn a theory that has been held for centuries. That's something it has in common with Buddhism. So science also has this connection with truth and you can let it soak in and learn a lot in that way through the truths of science just as for Buddhism. Some scientists like Richard Feynmann make science an open path of discovery and truth, that they engage in with all their being rather than just intellectually, and when they do that, it’s not unlike the Buddhist path.
So, it's more that it's so often not treated as an important thing to understand the truths of science in that way. There are lots of connections and parallels and similarities there. It’s more to do with how science is used and taught.
The main thing about the Buddhist path is that all the way through, it is based on things you can see directly for yourself. You don’t need to put your ideas on what suffering is through a scientific peer review to understand it. You know yourself what it is, an understanding that no amount of explanations in scientific papers could give you.
It is in this sense that the Buddhist path is based on truths that you can see for yourself. Others also see these truths directly. They don't have to be Buddhists, as they are truths that are there for everyone to see, directly. And - it is possible to share that understanding. It's not only done by intellectual arguments although sometimes intellectual discussions are used to point in that direction. It's sometimes done through symbols, actions, just doing things, and in many ways. When a Zen Buddhist shares a koan, it’s to do with communicating truths in this way.
Another thing that’s like this, which we can probably all connect to. Someone may show through a simple act of compassion, in seconds, some inspiration of compassion, which they could never do with even hours or weeks of lectures on compassion. Whether scientific truth can ever explain what is going on there, I don’t know. But it’s truths like that, seeing directly the truth of suffering, the truth of compassion, the truth of the changing nature of everything, the fresh start in every moment, in a way that really hits home - that’s what the Buddhist path is all about.
THE BUDDHIST PATH
Buddhists follow a path along which questions like whether there is a God just don’t apply, for instance. We are “non theists”. Not theists, atheists or agnostics either. It just is not relevant to the Buddhist path.
But that doesn’t mean that we know better than theists how to conduct our lives or what path to follow. Or better than atheists or agnostics either. Or better than polytheists or Taoists, or those who follow ancestor worship or shamanistic religions or …
It is just the path we are following. So I think it is really important for a Buddhist practitioner not to think of the Buddhist path as if it is somehow based on a truth that we somehow know or have an inkling of, and that other religions are unaware of and are ignorant of. All you need as a practitioner is a faith that this is the direction for you. You don’t need to reform the world and get everyone else to follow this path. Luckily :).
For the historical background to this approach in Tibetan Buddhism,s see Ringu Tulku's introduction "What is Rime" in his book "The Rime Philosophy of Jamgong Kongtrul the Greats.
Ringu Tulku is a teacher who doesn't put on airs and is very modest and humble but also counts amongst the more learned of the Tibetan teachers, a professor of Tibetology who has also mastered the teachings and practices of all the four schools of Tibetan Buddhism.
Yes, many. This is a list of some of the proposed Mars analogue lifeforms, which may be capable of living on Mars (if the postulated liquid water habitats there exist).
Top candidates for life on Mars include
Most of these candidates are single cell microbes (or microbial films). The closest Mars analogue habitats on Earth such as the hyper arid core of the Atacama desert are inhabited by microbes, with no multicellular life. So even if multicellular life evolved on Mars, it seems that most life on Mars is likely to be microbial.
Because of the low levels of oxygen of 0.13% in the atmosphere, and (as far as we know) in any of the proposed habitats, all the candidate lifeforms are anaerobes or able to tolerate extremely low levels of oxygen. This also makes multicellular animal life unlikely, though not impossible as there are a few anaerobic multi-cellular creatures[213]
Some multicellular plant life such as lichens, however, may be well adapted to Martian conditions (the algae supply oxygen for the fungus). Also some multicellular life such as Halicephalobus mephisto can survive using very low levels of oxygen which may perhaps be present in some Mars habitats.
For more on this see my Places on Mars to Look for Microbes, Lichens, ...
No, he is neither of these things. He was a political leader, but never a king. From a young child, he was expected to become a monk, and whether he did or not, there was no possibility of a royal ...
(more)No, he is neither of these things. He was a political leader, but never a king. From a young child, he was expected to become a monk, and whether he did or not, there was no possibility of a royal dynasty. The young Dalai Lama was chosen as a child of a small farmer in rural Tibet in a tiny village of twenty farmers making a precarious living growing barley, potatoes and buckwheat, as well as produce from yaks, hens and sheep.
So the process of choosing a new Dalai Lama didn’t favour high ranking officials either. He was expected to study and become deeply immersed in the Buddhist teachings which emphasize compassion and openness to others.
I see nothing wrong with a king myself, kings can be good. Especially in the past. But even now, then I think that any society is bound to have the trappings of royalty. And perhaps there is something to be said for having Kings or Queens that are above all that. If not, then the billionaires and presidents end up having those trappings instead - is that better?
But the Dalai Lama was not a king. He was a political leader. And he also had some of the trappings of a king or leader such as presidents also have and royal families, whether he wanted them or not.
ITEM OVERVIEW - Potala palace by F. M. Bailey on Younghusband Mission to Tibet, 1903-4 - the Dalai Lama grew up in this building. But as a young child he was a son of a small farmer in a tiny rural village of twenty families.
This is about his early childhood
“His Holiness the Dalai Lama was born on 6 July 1935, and named Lhamo Thondup, to a Tibetan farming family in the small village of Taktser, located in the province of Amdo. The name, Lhamo Thondup, literally means ‘Wish-Fulfilling Goddess’. Taktser (Roaring Tiger) was a small village that stood on a hill overlooking a broad valley. Its pastures had not been settled or farmed for long, only grazed by nomads. The reason for this was the unpredictability of the weather in that area, His Holiness writes in his autobiography, “During my early childhood, my family was one of twenty or so making a precarious living from the land there”.
“His Holiness' parents were small farmers who mostly grew barley, buckwheat and potatoes. His father was a man of medium height with a very quick temper. “I remember pulling at his moustache once and being hit hard for my trouble”, recalls His Holiness. “Yet he was a kind man too and he never bore grudges”. His Holiness recalls his mother as undoubtedly one of the kindest people he has ever known. She had a total of sixteen children, of whom seven lived.
“…One thing that I remember enjoying particularly as a very young boy was going into the chicken coop to collect the eggs with my mother and then staying behind. I liked to sit in the hens' nest and make clucking noises. Another favorite occupation of mine as an infant was to pack things in a bag as if I was about to go on a long journey. I'm going to Lhasa, I'm going to Lhasa, I would say. This, coupled with my insistence that I be allowed always to sit at the head of the table, was later said to be an indication that I must have known that I was destined for greater things”.
Birth to Exile
He has also now resigned all of his political roles in the “government in exile” and so is no longer a political leader either.
As for a God, no Buddhists don’t think in terms of gods at all. They are non theists. There is n need to take any position at all, whether theist, atheist, agnostic, on whether there is a God. What are sometimes translated as gods are
Many Tibetan Buddhists think that the Dalai Lama embodies compassion, shows it in some sense, its vast boundless quality. So - not as something that is intrinsic to him and nobody else. It’s rather as a blessing, a quality we all have, but sometimes you can see it more easily in others than in yourself.
He isn’t however a pope figure. Buddhists don’t reocognize anyone as an overall authority figure for all of Buddhism, or even over a branch of Buddhism. Indeed they can’t even alter the nuns or monks; vows, set out by Buddha, although many of them now seem archaic and maybe not what he would have come up with teaching in our present times.
Buddhist teachers can advise their own students who come to them for advice, and make suggestions in talks. But the Dalai Lama would not expect Buddhists to follow his advice - even Tibetans. He was also a political leader, but is so no longer, in that sense he is a bit like a king who abdicates though he never was a king exactly.
When Buddhists listen to a Buddhist teacher in the main sutra traditions, they don’t listen to them as one might to a pope. They expect to make up their own minds and the very idea that you might have to do something because the Dalai Lama told you to do it would seem absurd, LOL. It’s not an “anything goes” approach, they follow the path in consultation with their own best understanding assisted by advice from people they consider to be wise, of course. But as Buddhists, who we choose to ask for advice there is up to us, and Buddha’s path is a path of openness to teachings from anyone we find inspiring and helpful, in any tradition or religion or none
So he is neither a God in the sense of an authority figure, nor in the sense of having eternal life, nor in the sense of having miraculous powers, nor in the sense of having unusually fortunate situations (he can become ill and die like anyone else). He is just an ordinary person like anyone else. But to many Tibetans then he carries a blessing or connection with compassion. They think that listening to him, and meeting him too, helps them to connect more directly with their own compassion. But not in any exclusive way. You can come to seem many beings as “Chenrezig”. Indeed the path of the Bodhisattva leads towards eventually seeing the compassionate heart of all beings.
Here he is talking to Piers Morgan in the UK recently. Piers Morgan is a former judge on “Britain’s got Talent” and “America’s got Talent”. You could hardly find someone with a more different approach to life, which is part of what makes the interview so interesting.
Piers Morgan asks him many times in different ways if he is a special person, e.g. is he able to heal others, one of the first questions he asks, or can he pray to help a football club win, towards the end. So have a listen to his answers.
Just to say - this assumes your objective in life is to earn as much money as you can. But many people don’t have that as an objective. So they would make such a decision based on other considerati...
(more)Just to say - this assumes your objective in life is to earn as much money as you can. But many people don’t have that as an objective. So they would make such a decision based on other considerations, e.g. is what you are doing worthwhile? Do you feel you are helping the customers? Do you enjoy doing it? Do you think the company that is going to buy you out will do a good job of it too, are you aligned with their approach and aims, would the buy out benefit your customers in the same way, would they continue the vision of your project?
For some people all that matters far more than the financial side of things. So - that may or may not be your situation but just to say - you don’t need to let a financial calculation decide things for you. You can do the calculation, but the decision is still yours after that. A page of numbers is not a decision, it is just some of the information on the basis of which you make your decision and you are perfectly within your rights as a person to ignore it if that is what you want to do.
I write software myself, and though I make a very modest living from it, just barely scrape by, I don’t have an asking price for that business. It wouldn’t matter how persistent they were or how much they offered. I just would not sell because I have objectives other than financial ones.
Usually an interglacial like ours lasts for only around 10,000 years. It's 11,500 years since the last ice age. The amount of sunshine we receive in the northerly 65 degrees latitude is close to it...
(more)Usually an interglacial like ours lasts for only around 10,000 years. It's 11,500 years since the last ice age. The amount of sunshine we receive in the northerly 65 degrees latitude is close to its minimum for the Milankovitch cycles. That would normally mean that we would be headed for an ice age already. But we aren't. Why is that?
In a recent study the authors selected only the models that most accurately tracked the previous ice ages, and used that to study whether or not we are due to plunge into the next ice age. They found that if they ran the models with CO2 levels of 240 ppm, similar to the Halocene, then the next ice age would be as soon as 1500 years into the future. But if they used the pre-industrial levels of CO2 of 280 ppm, then the next ice ages should be 50,000 and 90,000 years from now (with a possibility of a slowly approaching ice age 20,000 years from now). Just that extra 40 ppm made all the difference. They are unsure why we had more CO2 this time around. Perhaps human activity even in pre-industrial society was enough to raise the levels by 40 ppm, which isn't very much, or at least contributed to the levels.
They found that with 500 Gt of emissions, not far off what we have already reached, we may already have enough CO2 in the atmosphere to make a difference to the ice sheets over thousands of years. If it reaches 1000 GT then the chance of an ice age in the next 100,000 years is notably reduced and with 1500 GT of emissions then it is very unlikely that we get an ice age in the next 100,000 years. And with higher levels of emissions, then we will end the pattern of ice ages altogether. You can read it in full under Nature's sharing initiative if you click on the link " published in the journal Nature" in the article in the Guardian here: Fossil fuel burning 'postponing next ice age
Now, it's not so bad at all to have prevented the next ice age. The climate is much more stable during the interglacials, while during ice ages then you can get dramatic changes of climate within decades. Also the Earth is more habitable for us during the interglacials. The question is really, what happens next if we continue in the direction we've been going.
For background to this, you might be interested in my: Order Patterned With Chaos - How Climate Is Predicted For Decades - With Exact Forecasts Only For Days
Yes, just about all the ideas that work for Mars also work on the Moon. About the only thing the Moon doesn’t have is the CO2 - but that’s actually more of a nuisance gas to be got rid of in a spac...
(more)Yes, just about all the ideas that work for Mars also work on the Moon. About the only thing the Moon doesn’t have is the CO2 - but that’s actually more of a nuisance gas to be got rid of in a space habitat. If you have to import any food at all, you are going to have an excess of CO2 which is also a trace gas in the atmosphere anyway, just kilograms for a habitat. If you have one month supply of food, then you have plenty of carbon for future crops from the CO2 you breathe out while eating them. And it turns out that the Moon probably has at least millions of tons of CO2, also ammonia (for nitrogen) and hundreds of millions of tons of water ice at the poles.
The Moon is actually resource rich in many ways, possibly more so than Mars. The spacesuits designed to keep out Mars dust also keep out lunar dust - the problem is similar. The Mars dust may be more toxic actually with the perchlorates and possibly worst reactive chemicals in the dust.
The Moon actually may have some commercial value by way of returned materials while the ideas for Mars are to pay for the colonization mainly by export of ideas from Mars to Earth - which I find rather implausible. The Moon is far safer than Mars. You can have lifeboats ready to get back to Earth in 2 days. There’s a huge difference between 2 days and 2 years which is how long it would take to get back from Mars in an emergency in worst case if it happened as you are leaving Earth orbit on trajectory to Mars, too late to get back. Well for Earth it would be four days in that situation approx, like Apollo 13.
And you can launch a resupply mission to the Moon at any time. You can only launch to Mars every two years. It’s orders of magnitudes safer to go to the Moon and in one comparison after another, the Moon stacks up as easier than Mars.
Check out my book to find out more:
Also for someone who cares for astrobiology and the search for life then the Moon is a place we can’t mess up easily. Introduced non native microbes can’t spread and grow over the entire planet if it has habitats as may be the case for Mars and so confusing the search for life and maybe causing other problems too.
We can make mistakes on the Moon first, and meanwhile explore Mars robotically and eventually once it is safe, from orbit. I wouldn’t make a decision about whether to land humans on the surface until we know a whole lot more about Mars and the effects of Earth life on Mars. We have made so many mistakes here on Earth and this could turn out to be our biggest one. And if we make a mistake with an entire planet, there is no way at all you can reverse it. You can’t remove a problem microbe from a planet, noway nohow. So I think we need to know, not just guess, but have a really good understanding of what the effects might be before considering sending humans to the Mars surface.
See also my:
No Nibiru is a fictional hoax planet. See my Nibiru Bullshit Tester - How to check if they know anything about astronomy
This is all over the youtube Nibiru conspiracy videos right now. They are saying that Pastor Paul Begley has predicted that we are going to be hit by a gamma ray burst on 26th December from SGR 1806-20.
Summary...
(more)This is all over the youtube Nibiru conspiracy videos right now. They are saying that Pastor Paul Begley has predicted that we are going to be hit by a gamma ray burst on 26th December from SGR 1806-20.
Summary - it is no risk at all to us. This is over 50,000 light years away. We have had a burst before and it did cause glitches with some satellites. But Earth’s atmosphere, equivalent to ten meters thickness of water in radiation shielding, protects us nicely.
The gamma ray bursts can’t be predicted anyway, so this is just a made up prediction and it would be an extraordinary coincidence (though I suppose not impossible) that we get hit on that date. But if we do, it’s not going to harm us.
Artist’s impression of the last gamma ray burst from the magnetar SGR 1806-20 which hit the Earth’s upper atmosphere on December 27 2004
So,
In detail
This star is a Magnetar which means a spinning neutron star with a very strong magnetic field. And yes, there was a star quake on December 27th 2004 on this star. The star quake released more energy in a tenth of a second than the sun would in 100,000 years.
It was far too far away to have serious effects on Earth. About 50,000 light years away. The blast was however strong enough to ionize the Earth’s upper atmosphere and it disabled several satellites temporarily.
This is an artist’s impression of the event:
This is where it is in the sky:
NASA release about the event in 2004: Cosmic Explosion Among the Brightest in Recorded History
Luckily the nearest magnetars are thousands of light years away from us. For more about this type of star, see What are Magnetars?
This is his video
CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS AND SOLAR STORMS
He links his prediction with the completely different idea of the effects of solar storms on Earth’s magnetic field.
These can blind satellites temporarily, e.g. it could knock out GPS - not damage them permanently, just force them to reboot through temporary glitches in memory. So that’s similar to the effects of a soft gamma ray burst. But solar storms can also cause major fluctuations in the Earth’s magnetic field which causes large currents to flow in long distance cables, such as power transmission cables. This won’t damage your computer or phone - the cables are far too short to be affected by the weak changes in the magnetic field. But the currents induced in cables tens and hundreds of kilometers long could damage the large millions of dollars high voltage transformers. If that happened, it could mean that power is lost for weeks, or months as they are expensive and hard to replace.
The executive order that President Obama signed was to harden transmission lines and to protect them and the satellites against solar storms. This was another story that was way over exaggerated in the media: Debunking: Solar Storms to end all life on Earth
SUMMARY
We can’t predict the next gamma ray burst from a magnetar. Such a burst is of no possible danger to us on Earth, and nor is any other magnetar because they are just too far away. It could blind some satellites temporarily.
We can predict solar storms but only a short while in advance, not days in advance. The effects of a solar storm on satellites are similar. They can also cause power failures, and Obama signed an executive order to find ways to help harden our power cables against them.
A nearby magnetar could damage our ozone layer like a supernova explosion, but there aren’t any close enough to do that. The nearest ones are thousands of light years away.
This is a copy of my Debunked: Pastor Paul Bagley predicts that Magnetar SGR 1806-20 is going to send a gamma ray blast on 26th December which will be devastating to Earth by Robert Walker on Debunking Doomsday
Some of the fastest stars in our galaxy travel at up to 700 km / sec. These are travelling so fast they will leave our galaxy. There are many more traveling at 300 km / sec. They are all moving out...
(more)Some of the fastest stars in our galaxy travel at up to 700 km / sec. These are travelling so fast they will leave our galaxy. There are many more traveling at 300 km / sec. They are all moving outwards from the galactic center which is seen as evidence that they were accelerated to those speeds by encounters with the Milky Way’s central supermassive black hole. They are in bound orbits but are short lived stars which will have reached the end of their lifetime by the time they start to come in again - assumed to be 3 times the mass of the sun or more, and lifetime no more than a billion years. Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics
The fastest known hypervelocity star though is US 708 at 1,200 km/s. It’s hard to explain but one theory is that it was a close companion with a white dwarf, dumped matter on the white dwarf as they spiraled together leading to a supernova explosion that blew the white dwarf apart completely leaving its companion to slingshot off at this very high speed. Hypervelocity stars wander cosmos
The very fastest stars though according to models could come from interactions of two supermassive black holes spiraling around each other before they merge. You might wonder how that is possible, but it could happen as a result of galactic collisions leading to the super massive black holes at the center of each galaxy merging. For instance in our future the Andromeda galaxy will eventually collide with the Milky Way. This would eventually lead to the two super massive black holes merging, a long way into the future.
There’s a super massive black hole in the center of each galaxy. Eventually a long way into the future they will spiral together and merge
Andromeda–Milky Way collision This will happen about four billion years from now. Stars are so far apart that probably no stars will collide, but eventually the two galaxies will merge to make an elliptical galaxy.
The supermassive black holes at the centers of the galaxies eventually merge in the process. As the two black holes spiral together before they merge (not shown in this visualization), that would lead to some stars being accelerated to vast speeds through interactions, at speeds of a thirtieth up to a third of the speed of light, which could then travel vast distances. Such stars could have traveled for billions of years across the universe already.
This could lead to stars that whip around them and get ejected traveling at speeds from a thirtieth up to a third of the speed of light. Such stars could have traveled billions of light years across the universe already. There may be as many as a thousand of these relativistic speed stars in every cubic megaparsec - but that’s a huge region, a cube over three million light years to a side.
There is probably at least one star traveling at a third of the speed of light somewhere between us and the Virgo cluster 53 million light years away, but it would be hard to detect, however we may find stars with velocities of several thousand kilometers per second in future surveys with the James Web Space Telescope etc. See The Fastest Unbound Stars in the Universe
It’s not worth doing. There is enough helium 3 to last us for around 200 years if we mined the entire surface of the Moon. But there is no point in harvesting it as a source of energy. . Crawford s...
(more)It’s not worth doing. There is enough helium 3 to last us for around 200 years if we mined the entire surface of the Moon. But there is no point in harvesting it as a source of energy. . Crawford says (page 25) that to supply all of our energy from Helium 3 would mean mining 5000 square kilometers a year on the Moon, which seems ambitious (and would mean the whole Moon would only last 200 years). So, even if we develop Helium 3 based fusion, and it turns out to be a valuable export, it's probably not going to be a major part of the energy mix.
Even more telling, he also calculates that covering a given area of the Moon with solar panels would generate as much energy in 7 years as you'd get from extracting all the Helium 3 from that region to a depth of three meters. It’s obviously far easier to just make solar panels to cover a square meter of the lunar surface than it is to mine it to a depth of three meters and extract all the Helium 3 and return that to Earth. And the solar panels would continue to produce that power year after year into the future. You could have solar panels on both sides of the Moon for continuous power and beam it back using microwaves collected by a large rectenna in LEO. After 21 years you have already produced three times as much power as you could from the Helium 3 from that same area of the Moon for much less effort, and after fifty years you’ve produced seven times that power.
In addition Helium 3 is a fuel for a technology we don’t have yet. There are ideas for Helium 3 power plants but no such plant exists yet. The normal methods proposed for fusion power would not work with Helium 3 which requires much higher temperatures. And we don’t have fusion power at all yet. And when we do, it might involve something completely different anyway.
Helium 3 does however seem likely to be a useful byproduct of mining and other operations on the Moon. Valuable and low mass, so one of the few materials that might be worth returning to Earth but it doesn’t seem likely that it would be worth mining the Moon just for its Helium 3. That’s especially so since it may be very easy to make solar panels on the Moon. The lunar dust has large amounts of nanophase iron in it which makes it easy to melt it to glass using microwaves, as easy as boiling the same mass of water in a kettle. The high vacuum on the Moon would then make it easy to manufacture solar cells in situ. This suggests you could actually build a “solar panel paving” robot on the Moon.
These are extracts from my book Why Humans on Mars Right Now are Bad for Science.President Obama, if you love science, Please protect Mars life from contamination from Earth
Yes. Well not whole meteorites. But the pre-solar grains have evidence of supernovae before the formation of the solar system. The occur in meteorites in comets, and as free dust in the solar syste...
(more)Yes. Well not whole meteorites. But the pre-solar grains have evidence of supernovae before the formation of the solar system. The occur in meteorites in comets, and as free dust in the solar system. Their ages range from a few million years before the formation of our solar system to over a billion years before it formed. This is the only matter that we can study in the laboratory that actually comes from other stars outside our solar system.
It’s also possible that some of the comets in our solar system actually come from another star. Interstellar comet - Wikipedia
It is very difficult for our solar system to capture a comet coming from another star at a random angle - unlikely it even comes anywhere close. But as stars pass each other, their Oort clouds would mingle and it could lead to some comets being sent inwards - and if so maybe Jupiter could help capture one of them.
Comet Machholz 1 (96P) on its flyby of the sun on January 7-8, 2002, came back again in 2007. Occluding mask with white circle to show the diameter of the sun. Because of its unusual composition and its high inclination orbit, it’s a possible candidate for an interstellar comet which may have got captured by Jupiter into a short period orbit around our sun. A Very Oddball Comet - Sky & Telescope
Another photo of it
Jury is out on whether this or any other known comet is an interstellar comet. But with the pre-solar grains, we know for sure that they predate our solar system and come from other stars. They can tell that they do by the isotope composition and chemical analysis of the materials.
Of course all the heavy metals such as gold come from supernovae, or other very violent events - it’s possible actually that most of the gold comes from neutron star collisions, see Earth's gold came from colliding dead stars. And other atoms of carbon ,oxygen etc come from various kinds of stars and so on. In that sense just about everything except hydrogen and some helium originated inside other stars. But for actual samples of material that you can study in the lab, then the pre-solar grains are our best examples so far.
Well it is difficult to verify that it is a black hole. All we observe is a very dense mass. But the black hole itself would be hidden inside its event horizon. So in a way you can’t actually obser...
(more)Well it is difficult to verify that it is a black hole. All we observe is a very dense mass. But the black hole itself would be hidden inside its event horizon. So in a way you can’t actually observe a black hole directly.
So - you can observe masses that are so heavy and dense that they would not be able to hold themselves up against gravity - that is if gravity works as we predict it should at such high mass densities and if matter behaves as we think it should.
You could try to make up some new laws of physics to cover such situations which makes them something different from a black hole.
Black holes are particularly mysterious also because they combine together general relativity with quantum mechanics. Both work reasonably well - but they just don’t fit together theoretically. Can’t model gravity in quantum mechanics and general relativity has no explanation of the matter that curves space / time.
I think the most striking evidence in favour of them actually being black holes is the evidence that energy seems to being lost from our universe through the event horizon of the black hole - which is hard to explain any other way than through it disappearing into a black hole.
These observations of energy disappearing into an event horizon have been confirmed for stellar mass black hole candidates as well as the super massive black hole candidate at the center of our galaxy.
Artist’s impression of super massive black hole, NASA / JPL - we have one of these at the center of our galaxy. The inner edge of the accretion disk has been measured to be a tenth or less of the temperature you’d expect if there was some solid surface for it to crash into at the inner edge of the disk. As far as we can tell that energy is just disappearing from our universe, so truly a “black hole” as in event horizon that energy can only cross over in one direction. This is the latest of many such observations - usually with stellar mass black holes, the new thing was that they have now made the same observation of a super massive black hole
Still even this is not thought as a 100% proof. Conclusion here:
‘ It might not be the final nail in the coffin; the team is its own critic. “I will be the first to agree that this is not totally foolproof,” says Narayan. “It’s kind of proving something to be true, by proving that the opposite is not true. We’re proving that there is no surface so we’re saying there must be a horizon. That logical step is not 100% safe.”’
So - though most astronomers find the evidence pretty convincing, I wouldn’t say we have 100% proof that they are black holes and not some other kind of weird physics, perhaps something that we haven’t thought of yet.
But more and more evidence and so far everything is consistent with them being black holes and there is nothing to suggest they are anything else, yet.
So, your friend does have a point!
And, black holes are pretty weird. The thing is - that they are supposed to consist of a single point, which nevertheless has mass, charge, and spin. How can a dimensionless point have those three properties? What can it mean? Or is it best just not to ask what it can mean and how one point could have the mass of a sun, and another point, also dimensionless, have the mass of a galaxy?
Physicists get around it by saying that they don’t have to model a black hole, because it is behind an event horizon just model the universe up to its event horizon and as seen from outside, then the matter never actually reaches the event horizon even though within its own timeline it gets there very quickly, within minutes - though it can take much longer for a galactic mass black hole. Still from the point of view of an observer falling into a black hole it isn’t that long before they actually become part of that dimensionless point at the center.
So, though from outside then it is understandable up to the event horizon, it is pretty weird what would be inside that event horizon - and comes into stark relief if such a thing as a naked singularity or a white hole can exist. See my What is a black hole made of?
Many Nibiru enthusiasts claim that Planet 9 - a hypothesized planet way beyond Neptune - is the same as Nibiru - a planet that they claim comes into the inner solar system every 3600 years and is c...
(more)Many Nibiru enthusiasts claim that Planet 9 - a hypothesized planet way beyond Neptune - is the same as Nibiru - a planet that they claim comes into the inner solar system every 3600 years and is currently behind the sun and has been hiding behind it for many years and is about to jump out from behind it and hit Earth.
You can check this for yourself whether these ideas are at all similar.
This is the suggested orbit for Planet 9 if it exists
It’s that big red oval. Now do you see the blue circle in the middle? That’s the orbit for Pluto and Neptune. Our entire solar system is inside that circle. So the proposed orbit does not go anywhere near Earth, it doesn’t even go anywhere near Neptune, the most distant of the gas giants from Earth.
The zone of search shows the part of its orbit where it could be and still remain hidden to us - if it was closer to Earth we'd have seen it already.
To get an idea of how far away Neptune is see Bill Nye’s video here:
After watching that video, can you see that something that is many times the distance to Neptune is no threat to Earth?
So, the people saying that this is Nibiru are wrong.
The scientists who hypothesized Planet 9 don’t have any proof that it exists. They are currently searching to try to find it. For more about this, see
Why This New "Planet X" Is No Threat To Earth :).
Originally published as: Debunking: Planet 9 is Nibiru by Robert Walker on Debunking Doomsday
See also my Nibiru Bullshit Tester - How to check if they know anything about astronomy
This happened to me recently and I solved it by switching back to Youtube Classic using the icon of someone walking away, down at the bottom.
That fixed the problem, but now I don’t know how to swit...
(more)This happened to me recently and I solved it by switching back to Youtube Classic using the icon of someone walking away, down at the bottom.
That fixed the problem, but now I don’t know how to switch back to the new look (which seems to have a very big player). I like the classic interface but wanted to switch back to the new one and see if the comments are fixed for it too, and just to compare them.
So anyway it might be worth a try if you don’t mind getting stuck in Youtube classic, or if you have a way to get back again somehow.
I must admit I find the youtube interface very confusing at times: Why is the Youtube interface so bewildering?
In its quantum mechanics sense, this relates to the “double slit” experiment. When an electron goes through a double slit it behaves as both a wave and a particle. As a wave, it’s easy to see how i...
(more)In its quantum mechanics sense, this relates to the “double slit” experiment. When an electron goes through a double slit it behaves as both a wave and a particle. As a wave, it’s easy to see how it can go through two slits at once and interfere to make a diffraction pattern. But then when it hits the screen on the other side of the slit ,then it behaves as a particle. So how can a particle go through both slits at once? It is easy to see how there is a probability of it going either way but how can those two probabilities interact?
Well one idea is that every time something could go two ways in a quantum mechanical sense, it actually does go both ways. So then all those ways things could happen would be simultaneous "parallel universes". All happening at once like the way all the ways an electron can go happen at once.
It's often tied up with the idea that if you make a decision, that there may be a parallel universe where you make a different decision. But in its quantum mechanical sense it is an idea that every time there is a quantum state with multiple possible solutions, that all of them actually happen. So, there would be vast numbers of parallel universes branching off every millisecond from all the possible state and position changes of every particle the universe. It is one way of making sense of quantum mechanics, but it requires a vast proliferation of parallel universes to make it work.
This is called the "many worlds interpretation" of quantum mechanics
Trump may be many things, but I can't imagine him falsely claiming to be a Messiah to save us all. Also the very idea of a single “antichrist” is not really in the Bible. John uses it in the plural...
(more)Trump may be many things, but I can't imagine him falsely claiming to be a Messiah to save us all. Also the very idea of a single “antichrist” is not really in the Bible. John uses it in the plural in his gospel, as
It’s warning against false teachings that can lead you astray basically. Numerology can lead you astray easily. The idea of a single future antichrist is a later synthesis. See Antichrist - Wikipedia (Wikipedia tends to be quite good on theology).
This is the alleged 666 on Donald Trump’s coat of arms:
It is very easy to find all sorts of patterns in events, numbers, texts etc. That’s because there are so many ways to combine letters and numbers. Mathematicians sometimes do this for fun. For instance, there’s a famous puzzle to write all the numbers from 0 to 100 using four 4s. This puzzle dates back at least to the late nineteenth century. It was published in an book by W W Rouse Ball in 1882, and earliest mention in print goes back to 1881. Four fours
Here is an example
7 = (4 + 4) - (4/4)
Can you write every number from 0 to 10 in this way? What about writing all the numbers from 0 to 100 using four 4s plus mathematical operations such as addition, multiplication, subtraction, factorial, square root etc. To get as far as 100 requires some serious mathematical talent, but it can be done. Here are the solutions: Four 4’s puzzle. You can go further also. This page goes up to 386. Representation of numbers with four 4's It follows that if you have some text that has four 4s in it, you can use numerology to transform it to mean any number you like between 0 and 100, or indeed up to 386 and probably further too.
And here is a fun spoof of numerology, short exchange of emails after 9/11: Numerology and Numerology Parodies
Previous presidents of the US have also been proved to be the “antichrist” using numerology. E.g. here is the proof for president Reagan Proof that ronald reagan was the 666 antichrist ! Basically it “comes with the job” - if you get elected as president of the US, someone is bound to come up with a carefully worked out proof that you are the Anti Christ.
Yes - they can be if you don’t take care with how you site them, particularly for raptors. There is one particular wind farm called Altamont Pass that is notorious for this. But what he is leaving ...
(more)Yes - they can be if you don’t take care with how you site them, particularly for raptors. There is one particular wind farm called Altamont Pass that is notorious for this. But what he is leaving out there is that this is a known issue and that any new wind farm is carefully assessed for damage to birds and there is a lot of work done to make sure to reduce the effects.
Birds also die by flying into buildings, and windows, and in many other ways. So generally the aim is to reduce the mortality. They also die from fossil fuel plants and from power lines, millions a year.And most of all are killed by domestic cats, into the billions a year. For links to research on various ways that birds are killed by our technology, see Pecking order energy’s toll on birds
Cats kill many more birds than wind turbines, but they don’t normally kill eagles. And you want to do what you can to avoid them killing birds anyway.
THE PROBLEM
So first, why does it happen: the thing is that the blades move apparently slowly but at great speed, and they come down at them from above slicing down on them, and they are not adapted to look out for threats like that from above, 80 meters per second (180 mph, 288 kilometers per hour)
SOLUTIONS
However it has a lot to do with the siting of the wind turbine, and its design. By moving it a short distance you can get it out of natural flight paths for the eagles.
The worst wind farm is one at Altamont Pass in the US which is right in the middle of a migratory route, it also uses an older style of wind turbine that is more hazardous to birds.
The main thing that is being done at present is just to check the site carefully and make sure that wind turbines are not built in places where birds are likely to fly into them. They are still hazardous but if they are built in places where birds don’t normally fly then they aren’t going to kill them, or not many.
As an example, the UK bird protection society RSPB has built a bird-friendly wind turbine at its headquarters.
Other approaches include using radar to switch off wind turbines if there is a raptor anywhere near but this has mixed success.
The California Condor is protected in another way - most of them are equipped with GPS sensors - so they can program the wind turbines to switch off within two minutes if there is a California Condor within two miles of the turbine. This 2013 wind turbine scheme combines that with radar to protect raptors. Terra-Gen gets OK on wind farm in wake of condor decision
There are designs of wind turbines that wouldn’t cause any damage to birds at all but these are not in wide use at present.
Truly Eco- and Bird-Friendly Wind Turbine
Also these shrouded wind turbines - they actually spin a lot faster than a conventional wind turbine, but they are more visible to birds
Shrouded Turbine Design is a Step Forward for Wind Energy
VERTICAL AXIS WIND TURBINES
Vertical axis wind turbines are mounted closer to the ground and are less hazardous to birds. However because they are normally mounted close to the ground, and not so easy to mount at height, they may produce less power. Some advantages and disadvantages here: Vertical Axis Wind Turbines
Here are some designs: Savonius vertical axis wind turbine
Éole à Cap-Chat - The world's tallest vertical-axis wind turbine, in Cap-Chat, Quebec . It is a Darrieus wind turbine
Overview of several designs:
UNCONVENTIONAL WIND POWER
There are many other ways to harvest wind for power generation. For instance High-altitude wind power using kites or aerostats. High altitude winds are much more stable, so have a lot of potential if they can be accessed.
Airborne wind turbines (similar at lower altitudes) and other forms of Unconventional wind turbines One idea that’s being explored is Crosswind kite power where the kite flies at an angle to the wind, rather like a boat tacking, or someone kite surfing .This lets the kite travel much faster than the wind velocity and lets it use much more wind power than would normally be possible for its cross sectional area, rather like the rotating sails of a conventional wind turbine.
See also Public Kite Power Research
See also Do wind turbines kill birds?
Okay others have answered in more detail but this is more a short “Dark matter for Dummies” - explaining what it is if you have not much physics background. Dark matter means matter that we can’t d...
(more)Okay others have answered in more detail but this is more a short “Dark matter for Dummies” - explaining what it is if you have not much physics background. Dark matter means matter that we can’t detect easily. Doesn’t emit light, or reflect or interact with light in any way so we can’t see it. Dark matter also has to have mass, not just energy. Photons have energy but no mass - they travel at the speed of light and strictly speaking they have “zero rest mass”. They have a mass but only the mass of the energy that makes them up, not mass like ordinary matter.
We know that there are some very elusive hard to spot particles as the neutrinos fit that bill nicely. They are so hard to spot that for a long time they were just a hypothetical particle invented to explain certain experimental results. Nobody had “seen one”. This was the first “observation”:
Here, a neutrino has come into a bubble chamber from the right, but it doesn’t leave any trail. It hit a proton and then that lead to three trails from the movement of the proton, of a mu meson, and a pi meson. They curve in different ways in a magnetic field. They have no charge. They travel at nearly the speed of light but not quite. They interact with matter so weakly that only half of the neutrinos would get absorbed in a sheet of lead a light year thick.
If neutrinos have rest mass and not just energy, then they are “dark matter”.
So the idea of dark matter is that neutrinos may have mass, and that there may be many more particles as elusive as the neutrino and even more so.
They are usually thought to be "weakly interacting" so that they can't form molecules for instance. Also they can pass through both ordinary matter, and their own kind of matter too without noticing it.
So though you could have a dark matter planet possibly, the Earth would only notice it through its gravitational effects. But it would also be very hard for it to form, because our stars and planets formed not just through gravitational clumping but also friction between atoms and then between small pieces of matter hitting each other.
If you have none of that, it is hard to see how you could get much of it gathering together in one place, because there is nothing to slow the matter down. So it seems more likely that you only have something much more like a fuzzy thin “dark matter cloud” than anything like a planet or a star.
So, then you have two kinds of "dark matter" either hot or cold. Hot means it travels very quickly, like neutrinos not far off the speed of light. Cold means it travels somewhat more slowly.
Anyway various observations of the speeds of stars around galaxies, and galaxies in clusters suggest that there may be a lot more matter in the galaxy than there should be, and a lot more than is visible to us. You can estimate how many atoms formed in the Big Bang, and the universe seems to be too heavy for all the matter to be ordinary “baryonic matter” such as what we are made of. Indeed if this reasoning is correct, nearly all matter is “dark matter” invisible to us.
So, it is “dark" not in the sense of absorbing light, but rather, in the sense of not interacting with light at all. Not visible to our eyes or any of our instruments, or not easily. Dark matter may still be possible to observe if there are lots of it, as for the neutrinos. If you have enough neutrinos even though they can go through a light year of lead, half of hem, still a few will interact with matter. So we might observe dark matter. There are various searches underway to try to find it.
Our best limits here so far are from the WISE survey - an infrared telescope that mapped the whole sky three times. Since it observed in infrared, the visual albedo doesn’t matter. What matters is ...
(more)Our best limits here so far are from the WISE survey - an infrared telescope that mapped the whole sky three times. Since it observed in infrared, the visual albedo doesn’t matter. What matters is its temperature.
LIMITS FROM THE WISE SURVEY
The original paper for the WISE results implications for planets is here:
A SEARCH FOR A DISTANT COMPANION TO THE SUN WITH THE WIDE-FIELD INFRARED SURVEY EXPLORER
The survey is for gas giants, and stars rather than terrestrial planets shining only by reflected light. It was an automated computer search with any tricky borderline cases investigated by hand.
The scans overlapped at the ecliptic poles. Each spot of the sky was photographed twelve times in the ecliptic, but hundreds of times at the poles. So there is no way it can miss planets that are out of the ecliptic - it is more sensitive to those than planets in the ecliptic.
Artist's impression of the Wide Field Infrared Survey Explorer which has produced the tightest constraints to date on Planet X.
It gives strong constraints on a Jupiter or Saturn sized object. A Jupiter sized object must be at least 82,000 au from the sun (1.3 light years), and a Saturn sized object at least 28, 000 au (0.44 light years). But a brown dwarf can actually be similar in size to Jupiter and also very cold and as well as that, it can be much darker than Jupiter in appearance (though not invisible in reflected light, - our Moon is as dark as worn asphalt and of course, easy to see). More to the point, it can also be very cold.
Anyway, apparently it would be possible for a small, dark and very cold five billion year old brown dwarf to be in our solar system at a distance of 26,000 au (0.41 au), even closer than the limit for Saturn.
The survey could spot the more usual 150 K brown dwarf out to ten light years away.
So no, we’d have spotted a Jupiter sized object at a distance of 0.01 light years easily by now. Even out to 1.3 light years. A brown dwarf is the same size visually as Jupiter but much heavier. If it is an unusually cold brown dwarf then we would have spotted it out to 0.41 au.
That is still 41 times further away than your figure.
You can “borrow” it from the “Open Library”. Check out the ebooks at the top of the list. There might be a waiting list. As of writing this, there are 6 copies of it there and a waiting list of 2. Silmarillion, eBook - search. There isn’t any legal way to read it online except through borrowing or buying it because it is still under copyright.
It doesn’t seem to be available on kindle on amazon . com for some reason but is available on the uk version of the site here: J. R. R. Tolkien: Amazon.co.uk: Kindle Store
There you can read the introductory matter including part of a letter from Tolkien. Or buy it. You can read kindle books online or on your PC and don’t need a kindle device.
Nibiru is just an internet myth / hoax. There is no genuine astronomy behind it. They quote lots of astronomical news stories but they misunderstand them.
The idea of a planet in a 3600 year orbit o...
(more)Nibiru is just an internet myth / hoax. There is no genuine astronomy behind it. They quote lots of astronomical news stories but they misunderstand them.
The idea of a planet in a 3600 year orbit or a 360 year orbit that crosses the paths of all the gas giants is an astronomical nonsense, BS.
Here are some of the absurdities
MORE ABOUT WHY NIBIRU’S ORBIT IS UNSTABLE
The Nibiru orbit is unstable and would not last as long as a million years in our solar system because it crosses the paths of four gas giants Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune all with different orbital periods. It's like rope skipping
Missing a planet on every orbit is like jumping a rope. You can do it if there is only one planet to miss each time. Pluto does that with Neptune, it goes inside Neptune's orbit every time it is closest to the sun, but that's no problem because it is in a resonance with Neptune and just like someone rope skipping - whenever they land on the ground the rope is not there so they don't get tangled up in it. Similarly every time Pluto gets closest to the sun, Neptune is not there and is elsewhere in its orbit so no problem.
But now imagine you have to skip four ropes simultaneously, you have to jump in a regular fashion (because orbits repeat exactly) and those four ropes are being turned at four different speeds with no resonances between them. That would be impossible. Similarly it is impossible for Nibiru to keep missing all four gas giants on every orbit for long. It can't keep that up for as long as a million years. Our solar system is over 4 billion years old. So such an orbit is impossible.
PLANETS BEYOND NEPTUNE
Astronomers do often hypothesize planets that orbit beyond Neptune. They call all these planets “planet X” where the X there doesn’t stand for 10, it stands for unknown, X as in unknown quantity. Pluto was called planet X before they discovered it,
So, if you see a story about “planet X” then it means they don’t know if it exists or not. It’s just a hypothesis.
The Nibiru people seem to think that all these hypothetical planets are real planets.
Then they also ignore all the parameters in the hypothesis. Scientists publish a paper saying there might be a brown dwarf that orbits 1.5 light years away from Earth. (That’s the idea of Nemesis, which is now pretty much disproved after the Wise infrared survey didn’t find it, and would have found a brown dwarf unless it was unusually cold).
The Nibiru people then skim read this paper and conclude that it proves that there is a planet called Nibiru in a 3600 year orbit that comes into the inner solar system and is already in the inner solar system and about to fly past Earth or hit it a few months into the future or a few weeks into the future.
They don’t seem to see the discrepancies between what the scientists say and what they are saying.
They behave like script writers for a movie.
If you make a movie, your ideas don’t have to make scientific sense, they just have to seem plausible enough for most of the audience to be able to suspend disbelief. Even scientists can enjoy movies like that, I like Star Trek and Doctor Who though much of what they say just makes no scientific sense at all.#
REAL LIFE IS NOT A MOVIE SCRIPT
But it doesn’t work in real life. In real life and astronomy the ideas have to make sense and the Nibiru ones don’t.
BIZARRE INCONSISTENT IDEAS
They say really bizarre things. They think that a planet in a 3600 year orbit can stay behind the sun all the way through its orbit. The sun goes through twelve constellations every year. Jupiter goes through one of the zodiacal constellations each year. A planet in a 3600 year orbit would go through them even more slowly. From that it’s easy to see that it’s impossible for a planet in a long period orbit to “hide behind the sun”. But they don’t seem to be able to understand this.
They believe, many of them, that the Earth’s poles have shifited. You just need to go out any starry night, locate the pole star, go out an hour or two later and check that it is the only star that hasn’t shifted and you debunk that idea with your own eyes. Due North still points towards the pole star. They can’t see this.
They also believe we have two suns and that this second sun appears in photographs take in a cell phone camera. It is so easy to debunk this. that just about anyone will just LOL if you say we have two suns, except the Nibiru people.
On any sunny day block out the sun with your finger. Do you see a second sun? (Don’t stare at the sun itself as your eyes can be damaged and you feel no pain as you have no pain receptors in your retina and effects can happen much later like hours later you start to lose your sight)
I find it incredible that anyone even gives this a moment of thought, whether or not we have one sun or two.
IT’S LIKE PROPOGANDA
But I’ve come to understand how it works I think. It’s like propoganda. If you watch lots of videos and read lots of stories then you come to believe it through repetition, if the videos and stories seem impressive to you. Much as people come to beleive in propoganda. Also a bit like the way advertising works.
For this to happen you have to have no understanding of physics or astronomy, but there are many people who flunked physics at school, and indeed why should everyone understand physics :). I’m not good at languages and have no idea about how baseball or american soccer works.
RESPONSIBILITY OF JOURNALISTS
So I think that youtube videos and newspaper reporters are part of what leads people to get so scared about things that if they could relate to their own common sense, they would see are nonsense.
I’ve done a couple of petitions on Change.org
Youtube: Petition to Youtube to Halt Ads on Doomsday Videos
Petition: Let's End Dramatized Reporting Of "Doomsday" Stories - The Vulnerable Get Suicidal
Do sign and share, it may help.
OBJECTS THAT CAN HIT EARTH
As for other objects that could hit Earth, well we have a survey of all the NEOs of 10 kilometers upwards and know their orbits well, and none of them can hit Earth before 2100. We could be hit by a comet but that’s now a 1 in 100 million probability, can be 99.999999% sure it won’t happen this century, and we’d be able to track it for at least a year and probably much longer on its way in if it was a large comet like that.
It is possible for a 1 kilometer object to hit Earth with only a few weeks of warning as though we know 90% of those, that leaves 10% of them still to find. We will have 99% by the late 2020s and are finding one of them every month at present.
An object that large is large enough to cause a tsunami, or to have serious effects on land, and put enough dust into the atmosphere to have some global effects. If we found such an object headed our way we’d need to evacuate the impact zone and couldn’t do much to deflect it at such late notice.
But this is very very unlikely. After all it has never happened in recorded human history and is no more likely to happen in this century than any other. Indeed is less likely because we have found 90% and they are not headed our way so the known probability of it happening is a tenth of what it was before we found those 90% of them. So we can be more confident that it won’t happen than anyone in any previous century already. By the 2020s we will be a hundred times more confident than we could be e.g. last century. Unless we find one headed our way of course, in which case it’s most likely to do several flybys first so we can deflect it, easy to do if it has a flyby of Earth.
Can’t say it is impossible but it’s very unlikely, and ordinary things like traffic accidents or health issues are far more significant. Even being killed by lightning or a tornado is more likely than being killed by an asteroid.
But we can do something about it. For half a billion dollars we can build a space telescope to do an infrared survey from inside of Earth’s orbit close to Venus to find most of the objects down to 20 meters within a decade.
Sentinel telescope developed by the B612 foundation. They have not yet managed to find enough funds to complete it although they did raise many millions of dollars. They were going to partner with NASA but they pulled out due to lack of funding. Any major technological country world-wide could fund this and hardly notice the effect on their defence budget.
It would sit inside of Earth close to Venus's orbit giving it a good field of view of NEOs close to the sun. It looks away from the sun to avoid being blinded by it - and it can then see faint NEOs that are in between the Earth and the Sun which is the hardest place to spot them from our current Earth based surveys. It would help fix that blind spot for asteroids that come from the direction of the sun. It looks in infra red because the asteroids are far more obvious in the infrared.
Eventually it would spot just about everything out there that's in the vicinity of the Earth orbit.
Idea is that it would find nearly all potential impactors down to 20 meters diameter.
If we find anything headed our way then with a decade or two of warning it would be easy to deflect.
It doesn’t make much sense to build an asteroid defense system based on expensive rockets that might not be needed for a hundred million years into the future (for the 10 km asteroids) or thousands of years inot the future for the smaller ones.
So unless we had huge amounts of funding ,the first priority is to do surveys and detect them. If we find something headed our way we can then build the defences against them, and if we do a complete survey we would expect decades of warning and can deflect them easily. So the priority right now is funding to detect them. We are doing quite well there. But for a tiny fraction, of say, the amount the UK government just voted to spend on renewing the Triden tnuclear weapons, an amount so small the defence budget of any major country would hardly notice it, we could find nearly all the asteroids down to 20 meters in diameter within a decade.
I think an ET would find it astonishing that we spend so much on defending ourselves against each other, yet none of the advanced countries in the entire world can find half a billion dollars for a space telescope to find the NEOs that threaten us from space.
For more on that, see Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
My Nibiru debunking articles are here
And you can tell from the hundreds of comments on those articles how many scared people there are, genuinely worried by Nibiru. It’s so sad, that they are so scared of such a daft idea, which I think most of them would admit is rather daft if they could just calm down enough to be able to connect to their basic common sense and good judgement. Especially young people and people who don’t have a strong background in science or astronomy.
See also my answer to Why do some people still believe in Nibiru?
This is a copy of my answer to When will Nibiru hit Earth?. Also copied as Debunked: Nibiru will hit Earth on [Insert Date here]
It’s just a hoax and prank. Some do it for the ad money. Some of the Nibiru channels there are earning their owners thousands of dollars a month of ad revenue. Others are videos by members of the p...
(more)It’s just a hoax and prank. Some do it for the ad money. Some of the Nibiru channels there are earning their owners thousands of dollars a month of ad revenue. Others are videos by members of the public who think that if they see any bright light in the sky that they don’t understand, in any circumstances, then that means it is a planet called “Nibiru”. If they had somehow been persuaded that any bright light is Santa Claus and his reindeer we’d have lots of videos uploaded with sightings of Santa. They don’t see a planet, they just see unexplained lights.
It’s not true that astronomers are murdered for speaking up about “Nibiru” as another answer here says. This rumour derives from two sources
Robert Harrington, photograph from his obituary Bob Harrington Obituary - he was not murdered. He died of throat cancer six months AFTER his theory of an extra planet beyond Neptune was disproved by Myles Standish using data from the Voyager 2 flyby of Neptune.
See also
On wormwood see Debunked: Nibiru is Wormwood so must be real
The starting point is to discuss the dispute on the talk page. If you go to the talk page of a controversial article then often you get pages and pages of discussion. And then you will find archive...
(more)The starting point is to discuss the dispute on the talk page. If you go to the talk page of a controversial article then often you get pages and pages of discussion. And then you will find archives of more pages and pages. Sometimes they reach mutual agreement through discussion. But often that doesn’t work and sometimes mutual agreement is impossible.
The best way of settling content disputes is the “Request for Comments” where you state the issue carefully, usually on the article talk page or a project talk page, and then ask uninvolved editors to join in and post their opinions on the dispute. It usually has a section where you can post your view as “support” or “oppose”, sometimes many different options. It would look like this (example from Wikipedia:Requests for comment)
RfC about the photo in the history section
Should the "History" section contain a photograph of the ship? (signature)
Survey
- Support' inclusion of the photograph, which helps the reader. (signature)
- Oppose , it isn't relevant enough (signature)
Threaded discussion
I have concerns about this photograph. (signature)
What kind of concerns? (signature)
Some editors will just say “support” or “oppose” and then sign their opinion. But others will explain their reasons, in a short comment, and sometimes may say “strong support” or “strong oppose”.
After the RfC is over, after a set period, or when everyone has stopped commenting, then an uninvolved editor will close it and say what the outcome was. Sometimes the participants all agree as a result of the discussion or the decision is clear enough so that the outcome is obvious.
There’s usually a discussion area too, and some things may get thrashed out in the discussion, often leading for instance to the RfC being rephrased or a new RfC started.
For an example of a recent RfC which had a simple clear outcome there is this one, about whether to use the word “Persian Gulf” or “Arabian Gulf” for this stretch of water.
Should this be called the “Persian Gulf” or the “Arabian Gulf” on wikipedia, or perhaps sometimes one and sometimes the other? The result of the RfC is that it should be called the Persian Gulf. For the reasoning, and votes, see RfC: Persian Gulf and Arabian Gulf Since everyone who responded said No to the idea to call it the Arabian Gulf the closing editor had an easy job there. For the background to the proposal see the Persian Gulf naming dispute
I’ve added an example from the Bush article mentioned in the question to show how it goes in a comment - in that case there was a lot of discussion, many alternatives suggested, final outcome was not to mention the topic at all.
TRY YOUR HAND AT VOTING IN AN RFC FOR YOURSELF!
You can find a list of all the current RfCs on wikipedia here: Wikipedia:Requests for comment/All - Wikipedia If you are interested in any of those, do join in and help with the decision making processes on wikipedia. All editors are welcome to respond to any RfC including ip users, i.e. people who are not logged in or even don’t have a user account there. You can read some of the guidelines for responding here: Suggestions for responding
RFCS WITH NO CONCLUSION
Many RfCs end up with no conclusion. Part of the problem is how to attract people to vote in RfCs. Hopefully I’ve helped in my small way by suggesting readers of this answer join in to any RfC that interests you.
You have to be careful to advertise RfCs in a neutral fashion so can’t tell all your friends to vote, or tell people which way to vote and then post a link to the RfC to vote for your views. So it was okay to suggest you pick an RfC and join in but at the other extreme, it would definitely not be okay to say “please vote for this one, I know you will support my views on the matter”.
As a result it’s sometimes a bit hard for participants in the RfCs to do much to advertise them and they often just end up with all the original participants in the discussion stating their views yet again, and then one or two others, if you are lucky, join in and add their views. And often the original editors dominate the discussion that follows which can drive away people with other ideas who might take it to new areas.
So RfCs work but only up to a point. Then editors resort to other methods. Articles there sometimes “flip” so you come back a month later and find it says something completely different from what it said on your last visit. That’s because it’s got a new editor or group of editors with new views on what it should say. It might not be a result of discussion at all - just a new editor with strong views on the topic.
On articles with few editors, often one editor will “own” the article and simply revert what any other editor does. If they can find a few friends who agree with them and support their actions then it is often impossible for anyone else to go against them. For more on this see: Wikipedia:Ownership of content
I don’t think wikipedia has really sorted this out. It’s the main reason why there are a lot of actual out and out mistakes there, especially in minor articles. A wikipedian with a strong opinion who “owns” an article may be able to ward off any number of experts and professors or whatever who try to get the article changed. They can do that easily because they will generally come along one at a time and that makes it is easy for an editor with a few friends to revert their edits and send them packing.
It does seem to work reasonably well with high profile articles with dozens of editors. For an example of the sorts of things they fight over, written up in a humorous tone, see Wikipedia:Lamest edit wars - Wikipedia
Container of gasoline? petrol? fossil fuel? benzine? gas? a mixture of refined combustible organic liquid compounds for reciprocating piston engines equipped with spark plugs
One of the example long running disputes in the Lamest edit wars. Sometimes a single sentence or a single word you read there, or the placement of a full stop is the result of pages and pages of text on the talk pages, as well as edit warring (reverting each other’s edits) with many resolutions and RfCs. See Wikipedia:Lamest edit wars/Spelling and punctuation - Wikipedia
Another example from that page is the long running dispute over the spelling of Aluminium / Aluminum. This gets so many comments that it has a talk page of its own with three archives of past discussions of the topic. The decision so far is to use Aluminium with the extra i, but they continue to debate it occasionally. See Talk:Aluminium/Spelling - Wikipedia
NO EDITOR IN CHIEF
The main problem is that admins are not able to judge on content disputes. They won’t read any of the cites as they are not topic area specialists, and are not expected to be, that’s not their role in Wikipedia. There are no “editors in chief” there.
There is a Dispute resolution process, but because there is no editor in chief to settle the dispute, this is just a way to get the editors to talk to each other, with a mediator to help settle their differences. Nobody except the editors involved in the dispute will look at the sources during this process either, at least not in detail and probably not at all. The moderators of your dispute won’t know anything about the topic that is in dispute. So this only works if both sides are in agreement that they want to do it first, and if there is a fair bit of common ground and a willingness on both sides to find a compromise solution.
When it is yes / no situation with only two possible outcomes particularly, a compromise is likely to be impossible. Also if either of the disputing parties is unwilling to compromise, and are just sure they are right, dispute resolution is impossible, and this is often the case.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT IF NONE OF THOSE PROCESSES WORK
This is not how it is supposed to work. However, because the admins don’t judge the content like an editor, they have to judge on behaviour instead. So, if editors want to resolve it by going to a higher level, and dispute resolution didn’t work or was not possible at all, often opposing editors in an ongoing dispute eventually resort to banning the opposing editors from mentioning the topic of the dispute anywhere in wikipedia. They may also block them (this stops them contributing to wikipedia at all) for a period of time. This is a very heavy handed way to resolve a dispute of course, and not at all according to the guidelines.
They may feel justified in doing so because they find the other editor annoying and think they are wrongheaded. They may feel they are protecting wikipedia from disruptive editors who are trying to destroy it. Since the aim is to get them topic banned or blocked, they have an obvious incentive to paint the opposing editor to the admins as being more disruptive than they are. It might often be that the only thing that is really disruptive is that they have a different view from the filing editor.
You can be banned for simply writing a lot in support of your own views on the topic on talk pages, never editing the article itself. I’m an example of this. I have just finished a six month topic ban on the “Four Noble Truths” - I was not permitted to mention that phrase anywhere in wikipedia. It was all the result of a talk page discussion on a single article.
I followed all the wikipedia guidelines, everything cited. No original research. No edit warring, indeed I didn’t edit the article at all except to add a “citations needed” tag which was removed and I never tried to add it back in again. No personal attacks, all content focused, academic discussion of the topic.
In the topic ban decision by the closing admin for my case, the only complaint against me that they supported was that I wrote too much on the talk page for the article and did too many edits of my comments there.
In my case if I'd had any warning I'd have just stopped commenting on the dispute or I'd have slowed down to e.g. one or two comments a day. There was no need to get me topic banned to do that. But they didn't even try talking to me about the issue first before taking me to ANI.
You almost never get anyone filing for a block or ban of this sort if they are in agreement with an editor’s views on the content (apart from obvious cases such as vandals and spam of course). I think admins need to be more aware of this when judging cases of this sort. Basically the filing editor just about always has an axe to grind and their statements can be expected to be biased and often contain misrepresentations and outright lies. Too often the admins just take everything the filing editor says as correct, as they are adept at presenting material from past conversations as “diffs” to make their case seem convincing if you don’t look too closely. The admins don’t have the time to go through these in detail and some of the experienced editors there who file these cases rely on this to win the cases (the ones who resort to such tactics that is).
As well as that, a lot of the topic bans and blocks are the results of actions by unblockable editors. These are editors who can’t be disciplined because as soon as they are blocked or banned, another admin will come along and lift the sanction For details about how this phenomenon happens, and why admins can’t do anything to stop them under current wikipedia guidelines, see this post by a wikipedia admin, User Beeblebrox, about unblockable editors. This makes it very easy for them to block or ban other editors - they can say the most outrageous things and then if the other editor rises to the bait will take them to the admins for saying much the same things they said to them, knowing that they can’t be disciplined in turn themselves.
For more examples including the case of Clarawood123 who was chased out of wikipedia just for writing about the place where they lived by an editor who claimed it was a “Conflict of Interest”, see also Robert Walker's answer to What are the most frustrating aspects of being a Wikipedia editor?
There may be things that we can do about this. First, if you are an experienced wikipedian you might be interested in my What you can do about the Alice through the Looking Glass world of Wikipedia Editing - Right Now
And for longer term ideas, see also Ideas for wikipedia reform for the long term
See also my answer to Is Wikipedia biased?
So in short, the system works pretty well for the high profile articles with lots of editors. Not so well for articles with few editors. Many areas are excellent but others are not so.
HOW TO EDIT WIKIPEDIA WITHOUT GETTING INTO TROUBLE
If you want to work on wikipedia, and want to do major work there, e.g. fill in some big gap in their coverage (they do still have large gaps in many specialist areas) then it is best to start with a non controversial topic. And - it is good to get lots of colleagues or friends involved in editing along with you. So long as there is no dispute in progress yet, there is no problem doing that and it doesn’t count as canvasing.
And if you have an article with lots of editors then it is much less likely to be destroyed or dramatically rewritten than a long article by a single editor. For professors and experts same as for anyone else. Try to edit the article as a group of several of you rather than as a sole editor and you are much more likely to succeed.
Two or three editors is good, a half dozen is excellent. Just editors of integrity, don’t need to be that you all agree, indeed a diversity of views is great. Just try to ensure that there are enough there who are involved in the article creation / editing so your content can’t be hijacked by a lone editor with a couple of friends and with an off the ball idea about the topic, who decides to do a massive rewrite of it.
If a dispute does break out, then that’s the time to slow down. When you feel you have to reply, that’s often a sign that it’s a good time to take a break. A few comments stated clearly and calmly - and then you say nothing more for a day or two, will have much more impact than a long dialog in which you answer every point. Other editors may join in and make the points you would have made. Or if not, after a long conversation with the other editors ,to come back in and make a few points in a calm fashion again will work much better than to try a ding dong answering everything they say.
For more on this see my How to edit wikipedia without getting into trouble
Yes. for sure. Here I assume you mean seventeen equal (there are many seventeen note unequal scales as well).
In this tuning, you have 17 keys instead of 12 to circle through. In any tuning that’s c...
(more)Yes. for sure. Here I assume you mean seventeen equal (there are many seventeen note unequal scales as well).
In this tuning, you have 17 keys instead of 12 to circle through. In any tuning that’s connected together by fifths, however approximate, you can always try progressions by fifths and there are often many other things to try.
You can listen to the start of Easely Blackwood’s 17 note tuning here (track 8) Easley Blackwood: Microtonal
This is what he says about this tuning in his program notes:
“17 notes: This tuning has much in common with 12-note tuning because both contain diatonic scales of five equal major seconds and two equal minor seconds.
In 17-note tuning, however, each major second spans three chromatic degrees rather than two (as in 12-note tuning); in both tunings minor seconds span one chromatic degree.
17-note triads are very discordant due to the large major third, so the fundamental consonant harmony of the tuning is a minor triad with an added minor seventh.
The scale is very good due to the relatively small minor second, and minor seventh chords may serve as tonics in the Dorian, Phrygian, and Aeolian modes. The Etude consists largely of passages in these modes connected by chromatic modulations unique to 17-note tuning.”
Another piece in 17 equal, with harmonic progressions Crocus - 17 equal temperament, 9 tone mode by Wongi Hwang
I think the first equal temperaments to be explored historically (after twelve equal) were 19 and 31 equal. See my answer to To be totally unconventional, should a piano with keys of E# and B# be produced? Would it be more versatile and more interesting?
First you may get the idea from science fiction that terraforming is automatic. Just add life to a planet to turn it into Earth. But Mars may well represent a planet that had life in the past and m...
(more)First you may get the idea from science fiction that terraforming is automatic. Just add life to a planet to turn it into Earth. But Mars may well represent a planet that had life in the past and may still have some left, although it’s got so cold that it barely survives there. Earth may be come almost uninhabitable in the future, much like Mars but too cold rather than too hot. There’s no reason at all to suppose that adding Earth life to another planet would make it like Earth. For more about this see my Terraforming and paraterraforming
So, to understand the value of keeping Earth life away from a planet, you need to realize what it is that scientists might find there. It could be the most significant breakthrough in biology of the twentyfirst century. Future historians of biology might talk about Darwin’s theory of evolution in the nineteenth century, the helical structure of DNA and understanding of how DNA works in the twentieth century, and discoveries of exobiology in the twentyfirst century.
So - we just should not mess that up. Not when we don’t yet know we could discover. Not through ignorance. We have made so many other mistakes and it’s well within our capabilities to make a mistake as big as this.
The rest of this is from one of my kindle books. MOON FIRST - Why Humans on Mars Right Now are Bad for Science.
WHAT WE COULD DISCOVER
What we discover there could include any of:
It might seem hard to get excited about microbes - but think of them as microbe ETs, and perhaps you may see them in a different light. As minute emissaries from another biological cosmos, tiny beings with a potentially totally different biochemistry.
This next video shows how DNA makes protein. Notice how complex the process is.
It happens in exactly the same way in every cell of every single Earth creature. Imagine what it would be like to find a cell that does it differently?
I've heard it said that the interior of a cell is so complex, with its million different chemicals, and elaborate structures and processes, that to researchers studying how cells work, it seems as complex as an entire ecosystem. So, what about using actual ecosystems as an analogy here?
Imagine that you have been brought up in the African savannah - with its grasses and trees, elephants and antelopes. You've never seen a marsh or a forest, or a beach. All your life you've lived in a hut in the African Savannah, never traveled more than a few miles from your hut, and that's the only thing you've ever known.
Then one day someone takes you to the sea shore, with its fish, shellfish, seaweeds, and sea anemones, and perhaps they take you on a dive to see a coral reef.
A Blue Starfish (Linckia laevigata) resting on hard Acropora coral. Lighthouse, Ribbon Reefs, Great Barrier Reef. Photo by Richard Ling
The interior of a cell of XNA based life could be as different from the interior of a cell of DNA based life as the African Savannah is different from a coral reef. And imagine the new perspectives we might get if we can study it.
The search for life is the main motive for all the missions to Mars to date. Look at how excitedly NASA reports yet another discovery of possible past or present water on Mars. And what a huge anticlimax it would be to get there, find life, it's headline news in all the papers, and then follows the anticlimactic announcement that it was just life that was brought there by the human explorers themselves! Then would follow speculation and questions about whether there was any native Mars life there before the Earth microbes got there, maybe never answered definitively. Or we find evidence that there was some native life that went extinct in the very decade that humans landed there, an ecosystem of many Mars microbes interacting, now gone. Or we find some present day indigenous life, but it is already getting overwhelmed by microbes from Earth, and there follows a rush to try to find it in the many different potential habitats on Mars before it goes extinct.
I think the example of an early form of life is the easiest to use here to show how vulnerable native Mars life could be, potentially. It could be some form of life that was been made extinct on Earth billions of years ago, RNA world life say. It might not last for long after more modern life from Earth gets to Mars.
For more about this see my article Will We Meet ET Microbes On Mars? Why We Should Care Deeply About Them - Like Tigers
See also my MOON FIRST - Why Humans on Mars Right Now are Bad for Science available to read online for free
(Originally my answer to Why is it dangerous to contaminate other planets with human bacteria? )
If this is a question about Buddhism - then - well some of the attitude of an atheist is quite useful. But it just goes a bit far. To say there isn’t a God is as much as a religious view as to say ...
(more)If this is a question about Buddhism - then - well some of the attitude of an atheist is quite useful. But it just goes a bit far. To say there isn’t a God is as much as a religious view as to say there is a God. It’s asserting something you can’t know from your own experience.
The Buddhist path is to work with what you have and what you know. And to keep an open mind about the things you don’t and can’t know. Trungpa Rinpoche talked about a “Nontheist”.
You might be interested in Trungpa Rinpoche’s The Decision to Become a Buddhist
“One of the big steps in the Buddha’s development was his realization that there is no reason we should believe in or expect anything greater than the basic inspiration that exists in us already. This is a nontheistic tradition: the Buddha gave up relying on any kind of divine principle that would descend on him and solve his problems. So taking refuge in the Buddha in no way means regarding him as a god. He was simply a person who practiced, worked, studied, and experienced things personally. With that in mind, taking refuge in the Buddha amounts to renouncing misconceptions about divine existence. Since we possess what is known as buddhanature, enlightened intelligence, we don’t have to borrow somebody else’s glory. We are not all that helpless. We have our own resources already. A hierarchy of divine principles is irrelevant. It is very much up to us. Our individuality has produced our own world. The whole situation is very personal.”
This was a hoax from 2012. It’s just not true at all. We are several dozen light years above it and moving away from it, and probably won't cross it for another 30 million years or so according to ...
(more)This was a hoax from 2012. It’s just not true at all. We are several dozen light years above it and moving away from it, and probably won't cross it for another 30 million years or so according to this article in EarthSky: Did Earth cross the galactic equator in 2012?
Here is a discussion on astronomy stack exchange, one of the participants links to a 2016 paper which makes it 56 light years above the galactic plane (17.1 parsecs) and the sun moving away from the plane currently at about 7.25 km/sec (both of those values approximate with quite large margins of error)
We are currently moving away from the galactic plane and the sun will cross it perhaps 30 million years inot the future. So if there is any increased risk of asteroid impacts during galactic plane crossings, it’s a long time into the future.
EFFECTS OF CROSSING THE GALACTIC PLANE
This is a genuine astronomical question . Are there more asteroid impacts when we pass through the galactic plane? Well there was some data seemed to support that idea back in 2008, but it no longer seems likely.
This is part of the general idea that we go through periodic extinctions - with lots of reasons suggested for why that might be. Passing through the galactic plane is just one of many hypotheses.
If you look at the data - there does seem to be a rough periodicity of extinctions. Some people think it is real, others, maybe more of a coincidence. It’s quite striking but not compellingly so.
This is the most recent paper I found on it: Periodic impact cratering and extinction events over the last 260 million years - and it cites earlier papers.
If it is real, and that last paper is correct, then the most recent one was about 16 million years ago and it happens roughly every 26 million years. So next maximum impact rate would be perhaps 10 million years into the future.
Different authors will come up with different figures for when they think it will happen next, but they all have periods much larger than 16 million years which puts the next extinction event millions of years into the future if the theory is correct.
GALACTIC ALIGNMENT
Also just to mention this because it got many people scared in 2012. This is different from galactic plane crossing
It’s true that the sun does align with the galactic core in autumn. But it does that every year, It just means that Earth is the opposite side of the sun from the galactic core once a year and has no astronomical significance at all.
In the same way if you point your finger at the Moon you will create an alignment between your head, your finger, and the Moon.
It is of absolutely no consequence at all that once a year Earth is roughly at the opposite side of the sun from the galactic core, as explained in the video.
I did this originally to debunk the idea we’d all die as a result of passing through the galactic plane. But it works equally well to debunk anything else you might think would be a consequence. Debunked: We are doomed because Earth is passing through the galactic plane
Many Nibiru enthusiasts claim that Planet 9 - a hypothesized planet way beyond Neptune - is the same as Nibiru - a planet that they claim comes into the inner solar system every 3600 years and is c...
(more)Many Nibiru enthusiasts claim that Planet 9 - a hypothesized planet way beyond Neptune - is the same as Nibiru - a planet that they claim comes into the inner solar system every 3600 years and is currently behind the sun and has been hiding behind it for many years and is about to jump out from behind it and hit Earth.
You can check this for yourself whether these ideas are at all similar.
This is the suggested orbit for Planet 9 if it exists
It’s that big red oval. Now do you see the blue circle in the middle? That’s the orbit for Pluto and Neptune. Our entire solar system is inside that circle. So the proposed orbit does not go anywhere near Earth, it doesn’t even go anywhere near Neptune, the most distant of the gas giants from Earth.
The zone of search shows the part of its orbit where it could be and still remain hidden to us - if it was closer to Earth we'd have seen it already.
To get an idea of how far away Neptune is see Bill Nye’s video here:
After watching that video, can you see that something that is many times the distance to Neptune is no threat to Earth?
So, the people saying that this is Nibiru are wrong.
The scientists who hypothesized Planet 9 don’t have any proof that it exists. They are currently searching to try to find it. For more about this, see
Why This New "Planet X" Is No Threat To Earth :).
This is a copy of my article Debunking: Planet 9 is Nibiru on Debunking Doomsday
See also the List of the articles in my Debunking Doomsday blog to date which has many Nibiru debunking posts, just search the page for “Nibiru”.
No, and it is a good thing too. This is prevented by the Outer Space Treaty. If it weren’t for that treaty we would have nuclear weapons in orbit, for sure. We’d also have pointless military bases ...
(more)No, and it is a good thing too. This is prevented by the Outer Space Treaty. If it weren’t for that treaty we would have nuclear weapons in orbit, for sure. We’d also have pointless military bases on the Moon - the Apollo mission would instead have been a military mission to establish a base there, just to show that they could, and Russia would have joined them soon with their own base there somewhere, to lay claim to the Moon. They might even have had shooting matches between each other on the Moon. Then by now China would have joined them for sure (it could have done a lot more to get into space if there was some prestige / military objective)..
Such a present or future would be the end of space exploration. Habitats are extraordinarily vulnerable. Spaceships travel at kilometers per second, far faster than a high velocity rifle bullet. Faster than ground penetrating missiles too. There is also nowhere a human can live for more than seconds without a spacesuit anywhere on the Moon, Mars, or anywhere else in space except the Venus upper atmosphere - where you need protection from concentrated sulfuric acid instead of protection from vacuum. Combine those together and if we had any warfare in space at all, the “rebels” would not hide in caves. They would just all die as soon as anyone hits their habitat with anything, even just a rock.
So, we can’t have territory in space established through military means like we can on Earth. It just wouldn’t work. We need another way forward.
However the Moon itself is pretty much worthless, there is nothing growing there, same for Mars. Is only valuable as far as you make it into a habitat. So the habitats are the things that really matter. You already own your habitat according to the Outer Space Treaty - anything you make yourself.
There are other ideas also - a safety zone around the habitat for instance, such as they already have around the ISS. Also there may be a way to establish “functional rights” within the OST, such as that the owner of a mine can continue to operate it so long as they keep it in good order, but loses rights over the mine if they abandon it.
So there are ways forward.
My own sympathies with the idea of some form of resource sharing, and such ideas are common here on the continent. The idea is not that you distribute everything evenly amongst everyone. It is that you have some recognition that you are mining the resources for the benefit of everyone, of course still making a profit on them and you sell them on return to Earth.
It could take many forms including a requirement to assist other countries to do their own mining in space, transport and equipment, or it could be some kind of a tax - I personally support the idea of a tapered tax starting at zero but going quite high if we get trillion dollar industries in space. It then would be used to fund a sovereign wealth fund for the entire world similar to the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund or the Alaskan one
Or else to provide a world base income that everyone receives similar to the system in Alaska. I am especially concerned about the effects on the global economy if we have our first trillionaires in space, with wealth equal to that not only of a small country but of the US, able to pay off the US national debt out of their own pocket. I think that billionaires are fine but trillionaires could be too powerful and unbalancing for our economy unless something is built in to deal with that situation in advance.
I think that it is very important to get such a framework in place first . To do it later once we have trillionaires in space, if that happens, may be very hard. They may be able to blackmail and buy out entire governments. Or they may keep prices of materials from space artificially high, for instance the diamond cartel that keeps diamond prices much higher than they need to, they could keep prices of platinum from space far higher than is necessary. Just low enough to destroy the Earth's platinum industry, then once that is achieved, raise prices and keep it as high as they can when it could be as abundant and useful as aluminum.
Space trillionaires, if such is possible, could also act against any possibility of humans in space long term. After all their main interest would be financial - at least - the ones who make most money from mining space would be the ones who win out, and that may be best done with robotics. They may siphon all the money from space into building a luxury mansion in Hawaii made of gold and platinum or whatever it is that tickles their fancy. While if this future is planned for right away then if it does happen then it might be, for instance, that we no longer have poverty to the level of people going hungry and unable to pay for simple medicine or the most basic of education anywhere in the world. And it could also be that the sovereign wealth fund, part of it is used for both human and robotic space exploration and indeed maybe for such things as setting up those lunar cave colonies.
I'm not talking about the idealists who have set up the first mining companies, but the later bosses that take over those companies or that set up rival companies and beat them at what they are doing once they can see that it is profitable to do so.
That's why I'd be happy with a 0 level of tax right now, so long as somehow the mechanism is in place to be able to do something about it later. I think now is the time to look forward to the future. There are many ways to do it. We are only able to explore space in peace at present due to the Outer Space Treaty without which we'd have nuclear weapons in orbit, and quite possibly useless token military bases on the Moon and the US, Russia, and now China all spending large sums just to hold a claim on the Moon. Back then they had a lot of foresight setting up that treaty and we need similar foresight now I think as we move to the next stage. As for the detail, well it will surely involve lots of negotiation amongst politicians and spade work by lawyers which may seem boring and unnecessary but I happen to think that it is very important.
You can't establish a "stake" on the Moon. That's not possible within the OST. Yes private individuals could lay a stake, say "I own the entire Moon" even, but their governments as signatories of the OST have agreed not to make any property claims on the Moon so they can't support those stakes in any way. So it is just like you pointing at the Moon and saying you own it. You could do that but it wouldn't have much meaning since you can't assert those rights that you claim.
Some other system would be needed. Possibly based on habitats and a safety zone, or based on functional property rights.
The ideas about either sovereign wealth funds, or a guaranteed world income for everyone, etc - they are completely consistent with the largest investor getting most from the investment. They are ideas that are already used in Norway and Alaska and the companies that do the mining are big oil companies and get the lion's share of the income.
One idea, project Dragonfly, is to send a a swarm of small satellites which combine together to beam a signal back to Earth using sunlight from the target star as a power source.
Artist’s impression...
(more)One idea, project Dragonfly, is to send a a swarm of small satellites which combine together to beam a signal back to Earth using sunlight from the target star as a power source.
Artist’s impression of a swarm of small satellites beaming a signal back to Earth.
Project Dragonfly: The case for small, laser-propelled, distributed probes
There are plans to send probes to other stars. So you can communicate in principle from spacecraft light years away. They don’t even need to be particularly huge. One idea, project Dragonfly, is to...
(more)There are plans to send probes to other stars. So you can communicate in principle from spacecraft light years away. They don’t even need to be particularly huge. One idea, project Dragonfly, is to send a a swarm of small satellites which combine together to beam a signal back to Earth using sunlight from the target star as a power source.
Artist’s impression of a swarm of small satellites beaming a signal back to Earth.
Project Dragonfly: The case for small, laser-propelled, distributed probes
It gets hit by more meteorites for the same area than Earth because it is closer to the asteroid belt. It’s hard to estimate the average ratios though, especially as Mars’s orbit continually change...
(more)It gets hit by more meteorites for the same area than Earth because it is closer to the asteroid belt. It’s hard to estimate the average ratios though, especially as Mars’s orbit continually changes in eccentricity and when it is more eccentric it spends more time closer to the asteroid belt so may be hit more often. It’s orbit is currently more eccentric than usual.
However you can estimate the average rates approximately using models combined with observations. This paper works out a ratio of 2.6 of Mars relative to the Moon (which has similar impact rate to Earth). This more recent paper confirms those conclusions.
It does seem to get hit by many meteorites large enough to form craters. This is the largest spotted recently by our Mars orbiters:
It is 159 feet across. NASA Mars Weathercam Helps Find Big New Crater
By comparison this is a similar sized crater in the Sahara desert (147 foot wide), found by satellite observation. It’s amongst the freshest craters we have. They think it formed after humans stop cultivating the area so that would mean more recently than 5,000 years ago.
PHOTOGRAPH COURTESY MUSEO NAZIONALE DELL'ANTARTIDE UNIVERSITÀ DI SIENA "Fresh" Crater Found in Egypt; Changes Impact Risk?
Mars also gets hit by many meteorites which would be far too small to leave anything at all on Earth as they would burn up in our atmosphere. HiRise is able to resolve features well below meter scale and the Mars atmosphere is far too thin to make them burn up in its atmosphere.
Mars gets hit by meteorites large enough to create a small craters meters to tens of meters in size 200 times a year.
One of 200 fresh craters that form on Mars every year as a result of its thin atmosphere and higher impact rate than Earth. Pow! Mars Hit By Space Rocks 200 Times a Year - academic paper here http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/~shan...
This doesn’t mean that our rovers are at imminent risk of being hit by a meteorite though. They have discovered meteorites on the ground
Iron meteorite found on Mars by Opportunity in 2005 - this is the first meteorite to be found on another planet.
However 200 impacts a year isn’t much compared to the size of Mars. It’s surface area is 144.8 million km² so that means one small crater forms each year on average every 720,000 square kilometers. In an area the size of Alaska or France, you’d get just under one small crater a year.
Let’s do a “back of the envelope” rough calculation - probably slight over estimate but suppose that a rover has to be within 10 meters of one of these craters on average to be damaged (the larger ones are tens of meters in diameter, but the smaller ones are more numerous, however they will produce debris that they kick up as they hit).
Then that’s 314 square meters or 0.000314 square kilometers of Mars each year. So the chance of a rover being hit each year is probably of the order of 1 in 720,000/0.000314 or 1 in 2.2 billion. That may be out by an order of magnitude or so, I don’t know if anyone has done a detailed assessment of this, but it is too small a probability to matter, of the order of 1 in a billion or so for a very very rough first guess. Even if we made the distance of likely damage for a rover that is near to one of those impacts as large as 100 meters, that would make it one chance in 10 million per year.
Whatever the chance is, it is more than on Earth at any rate, where the chance is zero of course.
Towards the other end of the scale, it gets hit by asteroids large enough to send material all the way to Earth roughly every one or two million years.. It turns out that you need an oblique impact powerful enough to form a crater about 10 km in diameter, or a direct hit causing an impact crater about 100 km across. The impactor would be about 1 km across, and you would get impacts like that roughly every one or two million years.
The search has turned up some interesting rayed craters on Marsthat might perhaps be the sources of Martian meteorites.. Here is a detailed study of the formation of the young Zumil rayed crater, including impact simulation of a 1 km impactor at an oblique angle. They found that some of the material from this impact would eventually reach Earth. It is a strong candidate for a source for some of our Martian meteorites..
You can also look at the cosmic radiation ages of the Martian meteorites we have on Earth. This tells you how long they were exposed to cosmic radiation during the crossing from Mars to Earth (while geological age shows the age since the rock first formed). Thee youngest meteorite, EET 79001, is from 730,000 years ago. Then there is a cluster of meteorites all from 1.2 million years ago, and there are other clusters every one or two million years going back about 20 million years.
Mars has about 385,000 craters with a diameter of 1 km or more. Mars Crater Catalog by Stuart Robbins (20120821). Though many of those would come from earlier times in the solar system when it was hit by asteroids more often.
By comparison with these figures of 200 fresh smaller craters a year on Mars and 385,000 in total of diameter 1 km or larger remaining for all time, there are only 176 confirmed impact craters on Earth, that’s including all sizes including small ones. But the smaller ones erode quickly and there are only 15 known craters smaller than 300 meters in diameter. Larger ones can get erased by geological processes. (details of the numbers for Earth here).
However the smaller Mars craters are from meteorites that would burn up in the atmosphere on Earth, and many of the larger ones are from billions of years ago during the late heavy bombardment, making it hard to make an accurate comparison.
I’m surprised actually that the theoretical ratio is as low as 2.6 for Mars relative to the Moon. (Though of course it is understandable that the smaller meteorites too small to hit the ground on Earth are more numerous for Mars). Could it be partly because Mars has a more elliptical orbit and so is encountering more impacts than usual at present? If anyone knows more about this do say.
Comet Siding Spring did a close flyby of Mars but missed by 140,000 km or 41 Mars radii. That’s a long way away but from time to time a comet or large asteroid is bound to hit Mars.
Artist's concept of comet Siding Spring (C/2013 A1) - Mars Science Laboratory
Calculations suggest that a big enough comet, if it hit the polar regions could create an ice covered lake that would stay liquid for a thousand years, which is one of many possible habitats for life on Mars.
We don’t know of any such lake at present. But there have been lakes in the very recent geological past formed similarly due to volcanic processes.
Just to add to the other answers here. It’s not actually in the interest of a pathogen to kill its hosts - at least not usually, with a few rare exceptions where the host dies as part of a complex ...
(more)Just to add to the other answers here. It’s not actually in the interest of a pathogen to kill its hosts - at least not usually, with a few rare exceptions where the host dies as part of a complex parasite cycle. The healthier its host, the longer it can survive also the more other hosts it can infect. The disease adapts to its host to become less deadly. At the same time of course through selection, the disease by culling those that are particularly vulnerable to it long term leads to evolution of humans who are resistant to it. Eventually the disease and host may even become symbiotes, dependent on each other to survive.
Indeed some parasitic wasps (the Braconidae and the Ichneumonidae) have taken this even further. They actually include coding for viruses in their own genome (the Polydnaviridae). Their own DNA creates viruses which replicate inside hosts to prevent the hosts from encapsulating the wasp’s eggs. (See Evolutionary History of Terrestrial Pathogens and Endoparasites as Revealed in Fossils and Subfossils )
So the most dangerous diseases are ones that have only transitioned to humans recently. That’s why HIV and bird flu are both so deadly. But if a disease is deadly, and their hosts die quickly, then it can’t spread so easily. To spread easily it needs at least some of the population to be resistant, to be carriers. Which then leaves open the possibility that some may be able to carry it indefinitely with no harm to them.
So that’s the basic theory behind the research suggesting that e.g. 96% of the population will die, still you get 4% of survivors. That’s what you would expect, that a few survive. Because if not, it’s not going to be able to spread so quickly. If it has 100% mortality and it gets transmitted quickly, then soon most of the original population is dying. And then especially with intelligent creatures like humans, we are going to notice and start putting quarantine precautions in place, as well as researching to find out how to prevent the disease or cure it.
Diseases can make populations extinct. But normally only if the populations are already vulnerable for some other reasons. E.g. rare endangered frogs pushed over the edge by a disease that kills all of the remaining population.
So, no, this is not a likely scenario. Humans remain amongst the list of species least in danger of extinction, and live on every continent and most of the larger inhabitable islands, and there are also still a fair number of isolated populations of humans with little contact with anyone else, and a few that have no contact at all, to this day the “uncontacted tribes”. So it is not likely that a pathogen could make us extinct.
I agree with many of the other answers, that the most likely reason any ET would want to do something about us would be if we set out to colonize the galaxy in an imperialist way. Even if our socie...
(more)I agree with many of the other answers, that the most likely reason any ET would want to do something about us would be if we set out to colonize the galaxy in an imperialist way. Even if our society has moved on hugely and we no longer have wars, a kind of Star Trek type future society. Even then, in a Star Trek future at least without warp drive, an ancient billions of years old civilization would take the long view and wonder what would happen once we have filled the galaxy. It would take as little as a million years at average speed of a tenth of the speed of light - every single star and Oort cloud choc-a-bloc with humans.
I’m assuming here that they can colonize Oort clouds. It wouldn't take many centuries of technology - the key would be fusion power, and self replicating machines. The combination of the two of those would make it easy to mine the Oort cloud, make habitats, and to set up home there with fusion "mini suns" or similar to warm up the habitats. This also means that once we start to spread out to the Oort cloud - since clouds of neighbouring stars probably intermingle, then there is no need to colonize other star systems to fill the galaxy - just hopping from one comet to another we could colonize the galaxy through the Oort clouds. We’d soon be unstoppable.
Many of the other answers here mentioned the idea that they’d be scared of us filling the galaxy as an emperialistic colonizers - well I don’t agree that they would be scared of us. They would be way ahead of us technologically as the chance of simultaneously reaching the same level of technology would be tiny. Even if we had another planet with life and independently evolved extra terrestrials in our own solar system, the chance that they evolve to technology within a few centuries of us is minute.
But they would possibly be scared of their own people doing this, which is just as bad and harder for them to stop since their own people would have the same level of technology as themselves. At some point they must have worked through this in their past and found a way to prevent their own emperialistic galactic colonization. So, surely they would be ethically advanced, peaceful civilizations, and they can’t be imperialist any more - otherwise they would have already had a go at converting the galaxy into an empire themselves and would be here already.
Here I’m assuming that faster than light travel is impossible. If so, a galactic civilization is also impossible unless the members of that civilization have immensely long lives, long enough to travel from one side of the galaxy and back again within a single lifetime, and have children at a late age too, maybe you have your first child at age a million. Long lived beings like that might see the entire galaxy as about as small as our solar system seems to us.
So anyway - either they are a galactic civilization with immensely long lives. Or they inhabit only one star system or a few star systems and the rest of the galaxy they have sentinel robots as in “2001 a Space Odyssey”. Their sentinels could be detectable to us as in that film, or they could be undetectable using nanotechnology or whatever, that would just depend on what they wanted. Or they have some other solution to the problem of having a galactic civilization instead of a galactic chaos. I think any sensible civilization will find a solution to that conundrum.
The Sentinel (short story) This was the origin of the idea that became the sentinel in 2001 a Space Odyssey - originally it was a pyramid.
My solution to Fermi’s paradox combines several ideas. Looking around intelligent Earth species nearly as intelligent as us you see ruminants like goats, you see lions, you see elephants, dogs, octopuses, grey parrots and crows amongst others. Plus the great apes and whales. Possibly also termites. So I think that the temperaments of extra terrestrials, assuming there are many of them, probably vary at least as much as the variation between a lion, goat, parrot, and blue whale, and maybe even a termite.
So it’s not likely that the same future fate applies to them all - again assuming intelligent species in our galaxy are numerous. So I think that basically there are probably two types. First the short sighted aggressive ones. More short sighted and more aggressive than us. So - as soon as they get into space, at the time of the start of our space race, they start having wars in space, shoot down each others satellites. Like the US responding to Sputnik by shooting it down if they could, or if not the Russians sabotaging Apollo in some way. So then they just never get anywhere in space because spacecraft and habitats are so vulnerable. We don’t have forcefields. We couldn’t shield the ISS against a determined attack by some nation with similar level of technology, especially if they were deceptive and pretended to be on a friendly mission and then rammed it.
The space around their planet would soon be filled with orbital debris and they would be knocked back and lose their space capability over and over until they find a different way forward.
Then the long sighted more peaceful ones. If they are able to see forward enough to get through the early stages of the space race, through to being able to set up colonies - and to deal with what may be other hazards too, e.g. making synthetic lifeforms or returning life from another planet safely - then I think they have to have the capability of co-operating with each other and taking the long view. These ones then would also be the ones that would not set out on an imperialist colonization of a galaxy because they would see how it would impact and harm them back again thousands of years later. They would wait until they find a safe way to do it.
So now look at the situation of our very ancient ET that has worked through this long ago. They don’t need to police the entire galaxy stopping any ETs from getting into space. Most of them will either stop themselves through over aggression, or will be wise enough to make the decision to stop. And they don’t risk the galaxy being overwhelmed by imperialist humans or other ETs except for a few ETs that might be on just the cusp between aggressive stupidity and co-operation and long range thinking.
Also they don’t want to fill the galaxy with their own kind as that causes the very problem they want to stop. They may have explorers criss-crossing the galaxy but not colonies around every star.
So instead they have robotic sentinels around every star (if such an ancient species does exist). And they normally won’t do anything. Let an ET evolve all the way to space colonization capabilities. Even if they colonize their own solar system out to the Oort cloud, no problem. They have technology a billion years or several billion years ahead of us, most ancient first evolved extra terrestrials. But if we do become a problem - well they can just sterilize us. That’s humane. Maybe just sterilize anyone who travels outside the solar system. Some kind of nanobes, or undetectable technology that makes everyone sterile. Or some other method. We can already reproduce by cloning, and may be able to synthesize the entire genome and may have “maturation chambers” in the future - well if so they have to be able to interfere with those also in some way to prevent them from working.
They won’t want to kill us - that would be inhumane. They would probably try to reason with us, maybe leave us some archive to find and read to educate us. Maybe tell us about some object lesson of other extra terrestrials that went wrong. But if we just won’t get the message, then that would be their final resort.
No need to make us extinct I don’t think. No need to physically contain us either. What harm would a few million or billion sterile explorers do spreading through the galaxy? Just make it impossible for us to reproduce. And they don’t even need to do that to all of us. Maybe they make sure that some of us stay fertile so we don’t go extinct but few enough so that there are never more than a few million of us in the galaxy or whatever they think is a safe number. Or that you find you are sterile if you try to reproduce outside your home planet or outside your home solar system.
As to how they would do that, no idea. But you are talking about technology billions of yeas ahead of us. It would be like us sterilizing humans with stone=age technology. We’d find a way and might be able to do it in such a way they can’t even detect what happened.
Or - maybe they make our spacecraft so that they don’t work. The engines mysteriously fail whenever they try to travel beyond our solar system. Just glitches in the electronics. Things stop working. Or they disassemble. Key components disappear whenever we try to travel beyond our solar system…
I’m probably not being imaginative enough here. But some way or another I expect it would be a trivial job for them to keep us in control. On the hypothesis that such creatures exist at all.
They don’t need to be especially clever by the way. I see no reason why ETs have to be brilliant. I think it is unlikely that they would be so clever that we seem like ants to them. Indeed if ants were able to talk to us and had a civilization I think they wouldn’t seem like ants to us either.
If cleverness in the sense of being able to do long chains of reasoning for instance was a survival trait - or in the sense of being able to do lightning calculations for antoher example - we would all have those capabilities. There has to be some downside and one can think of some rather easily. So the same I think is likely to apply to ETs.
They may be clever, but they might also not be especially clever, not hugely more so than us. But just a very very ancient civilization and as a result they have invented everything we could think of billions of years ago. Not likely to surprise them technologically, so they would not be scared of us.
As for the idea that they would need us as slaves, that makes no sense to me. If they wanted slaves, why leave Earth to evolve for as long as it did - why not seed it with whatever species are the most useful as slaves long ago? And anyway what need would they have for slaves with such advanced technology? Machines could do everything for them if they wanted it. And also if they have reached this stage they must have a reasonable level of ethics plus as well they also have everything they want at least in material terms already.
You can make up science fiction scenarios. E.g. curios. That you get a lot of social cachet from having a genuine human from Earth - not a clone, but the real thing, in your family. Or genuine non cloned plants or animals from Earth. A bit like the way rhinos are hunted though it is easy to create fake rhino horn indistinguishable from the real thing.
But I don’t find those scenarios very plausible. I think a billions of years old civilization is likely to have gone beyond such things. Not totally impossible. A bit like say holing all the balls on a snooker table in one go after the break, not just one after another but in a single shot. Unlikely but probably not totally impossible in some situation with a very freaky shot fired really hard.
So, I find all the scenarios unlikely, no reason why they would want to invade or enslave us. But if we start colonizing other stars, and if we do it in an imperialistic way - just expanding exponentially without thinking of the consequences and they think we are headed for a galactic chaos instead of a galactic civilization, they would have to step in at that point to make sure that we don’t - for the safety of themselves, other ETs in the galaxy and indeed ourselves.
If those ETs don’t exist then we have the responsibility to make sure we don’t do that ourselves. The universe is still very young and if we did turn the galaxy into a galactic chaos, that would be irreversible. No way you could stop that once you have humans colonizing other stars say a hundred light years away. Not without warp drive anyway. Then how could they, or at least their creations such as cyborgs, uplifted creatures etc ever go extinct? If humans go extinct around one star - there would be others where they are not yet extinct and those would be vigorous and expand to fill the stars again, and the ones that reach maturity in the least time, say by age five, have huge families, travel fastest and are most aggressive are the ones that would refill the galaxy most quickly. If they can master cloning, or self replicating machines, they can fill it even faster. So that seems a recipe for endless chaos some time down the road. All of this assuming they don’t have warp drive as that changes everything.
So, if we were to unleash this on our galaxy, there is no way you can put the genie back in the bottle and our galaxy would be like that for trillions of years into the future, or until some creature evolves able to damage it so much it becomes uninhabitable to any form of intelligence.
This we must avoid. I think the safest future is to send robots as our emissaries first lots of tiny robots around nearby stars and then once we master safe self replication, self replicating robots around every star in the galaxy. And then for humans, keep colonization to our solar system for now, and just keep a careful weather eye on the long range future and hopefully we can develop enough sense to explore and perhaps colonize parts of the galaxy responsibly in a way that leads to a civilization, not just over timescales of centuries, also millions of years, rather than a galactic chaos.
If we can do that, then also we would be no threat to other ETs in the galaxy. It’s possible that demonstrating that we can do this would be our condition of membership of the galactic community of civilizations. Or perhaps it is just a matter of time, that they travel throughout the galaxy but have immensely long lives and one is due to come our way some time in the next few hundred thousand years, which seems a short time to them.
Incidentally I don’t think advanced civilizations have to be technological. They might be ancient but live, for instance, in an ice covered ocean, with almost no possibility of developing technology. We might even have such a billions of years old civilization in our own solar system. I’ve no idea how you assess the probability, and perhaps it is very low but I think it’s not impossible that Europa could have a billions of years old civilization. If they can have fish, squid or similar as some think is possible, then why not intelligent fish, or squid? And if so, well why not a civilization as in having language, probably maths, maybe music, art etc? But no technology at all. Such a civilization would be impossible for us to detect with current technology, not unless we drill into the ocean (which would need to be done with great care to avoid introducing Earth life to their world) and they would have no way of even getting through the ice to the surface so not only no way of knowing about us, but no way of knowing even about the solar system never mind the stars.
Europa (moon) moon of Jupiter, perhaps the closest place to Earth where there just possibly could be a billions of years old extraterrestrial civilization living in the ocean 100 kilometers beneath its icy crust. Hard to assess the probability but some think it could just possibly have the likes of squid, or fish, if so, then it could have intelligent fish so surely a civilization is not totally ruled out. Without any possibility of fire (probably) and only simple tools, they would perhaps be unlikely to develop technology and indeed might not even know of the existence of the rest of the solar system, never mind the galaxy, all they would know of would be their global ocean.
There is of course no risk of being invaded by non technological civilizations. But they would be at a huge risk from any technological civilization invading them as they would be helpless, not even have ever imagined such a thing as technology - or maybe they work out the ideas of how machines would work as mathematical ideas but never imagined they could exist in reality. Indeed they would know nothing outside their ice covered ocean and a machine penetrating into it from outside would be a huge cultural shock to them.
On Earth of all the species of animals that have high levels of intelligence, only a few seem likely to have a chance of developing tool based technology. Perhaps parrots (though their machines would start very small, sticks, and leaves and so on), indeed termites perhaps, octopuses, apes of course. Octopuses would be rather handicapped by living in the sea though maybe they would adapt to find ways to travel on land once they are intelligent enough to become curious enough to want to do so, over long enough periods of time?
While the likes of lions, blue whales, dolphins, goats, dogs, not very likely. As a result I expect non technological civilizations to out number the technological ones. Indeed it’s a bit surprising that the first civilization on Earth should be technological. Is it possible that it isn’t? Grey parrots have quite small brains yet are amongst the closest in intelligence to us. Suppose that some species of parrot developed a civilization in the past, millions of years ago. What trace would there be of it now? Probably a few sticks in interesting patterns laid out on the ground as art works or mathematical theorems long blown away? Maybe nothing left at all. Could our Earth have had non technological civilizations in the past already?
Yes I think so. Especially if very close to each other. If one moon is within the Hill sphere of the other moon they won’t be torn apart by tidal forces.
(more)Our Moon is within the Hill sphere of Earth ...
Yes I think so. Especially if very close to each other. If one moon is within the Hill sphere of the other moon they won’t be torn apart by tidal forces.
Our Moon is within the Hill sphere of Earth relative to the Sun. The Hill sphere is also sometimes called the “Roche sphere” but not to be confused with the “Roche limit” - if the Moon orbited close enough to Earth then tidal forces would tear it apart - that’s the Roche limit.
Similarly if two moons orbited each other close enough they would be torn apart by tidal forces, but if far enough apart they can still be within the Hill sphere but outside the Roche limit. If they are mutually tidally locked, then the Roche limit doesn’t apply, and they can be as close as one likes, even mutually touching. They then just will be deformed by each other’s gravity into a kind of a permanent pear shape as for “Rocheworld”.
So it should be possible in theory. Our Moon can’t have moonlets because of the mascoms which make most orbits very unstable and no orbits around it are stable on the very long term.
But if, for instance, the moons are reasonably uniform in composition, and spherical in shape, then they could orbit each other indefinitely.
It would be stable even in the presence of tides. The Hill sphere takes account of all of that. The gas giants have larger hill spheres. But the size of the Hill sphere depends on the mass of the satellite too. Calculation indented:
Using the formula a*(m/(3M))^(1/3) with a = 0.384 million km distance Earth to Moon, and m/M = mass of Moon in Earth masses = 0.0123 then the Hill sphere for the Moon is (0.0123/3)^(1/3)* 0.384 million km or 61,460 km. Radius of Moon is 1,737 km
This page is incorrect: Can moons have moons? (Intermediate) which comes top of the search results if you ask this question in Google. They say that the tides will remove a moon of the Moon even if within the Hill sphere. The Hill sphere already takes account or the tides, the tides are the reason that a moon of a moon would be unstable. It’s the mass cons that cause the problem for lunar satellites.
We don’t have any known examples of this in our solar system. But we do have:
CO-ORBITAL MOONS
Saturn does have co-orbital moons Epimetheus and Janus.
This is not a double moon though it may seem so from this photograph.
Instead, they are co-orbiting and swap orbits. It is what can happen to what would otherwise be a moonlet of a moon, when the Hill sphere is too small to include both objects. So I think it is worth going into, it also helps to explain what the Hill sphere is all about.
Suppose for instance that Epimetheus is on the inside, as happens every 8 years, and Janus on the outside. Then Epimetheus is orbiting just 30 seconds per orbit faster than Janus. So it gradually gets further and further ahead of Janus until, four years later, it starts to catch up with Janus from behind.
When it does that, then Epimetheus pulls backwards at Janus - which causes it to go faster and drop into a lower orbit. Meanwhile Janus pulls forward at Epimetheus causing it to go slower and into a higher orbit. So then they swap places. Now Janus is on the inside, and Epimetheus is on the outside, and Janus will gradually speed away and so it goes on like that, swapping positions every four years. See Epimetheus (moon)
This gives a rough idea of how it works:
Only thing is they've done it with the green one much heavier so it doesn't move in its orbit.
Here is another view this time in 3D, using rotating frame:
More about it here: The Orbital Dance of Epimetheus and Janus including an actual short video of Janus and Epiphemus at the moment they change orbits (though it's taken from a perspective where it's not easy to see what is going on, a video taken by a satellite itself in orbit around Saturn and in the same plane), taken by the Cassini orbiter in 2005
Here BTW is a simulation of four moons all co-orbiting in a similar way, which could happen theoretically though no examples known, this is in rotating frame
HORSESHOE ORBITS - THE CASE OF EARTH AND CRUITHE
It's related to the idea of a "horseshoe orbit", like the much more complex orbit of 3753 Cruithne which is in a "bean shaped orbit" relative to Earth.
From Earth's perspective:
But something you don't see in that animation, that "bean" is also gradually drifting around relative to Earth until it catches up with Earth from behind, similarly to Janus and Epimetheus - and then when that happens, then the Earth and 3753 Cruithne do a similar swap except this time because of the difference of size, 3753 Cruithne moves over half a million kilometers while Earth moves just 1.3 centimetres.
Nevertheless that swap will move the Earth outwards a bit, enough so that your year is a little longer from then onwards, until next time the swap happens. Then it swaps back again and the process repeats. The whole process takes around 770 years.
So in this case Cruithne and Earth are orbiting the Sun. You could have a similar situation with a smaller moon and our Moon orbiting the Earth.
So anyway you can get co-orbiting moons, though they are rare.
As for moons of moons, then you get asteroids with moons and asteroids with rings. We just possibly might have moons with rings also.
One promising candidate is Saturn's moon Rhea, its second largest moon and a long way from the planet, and at one time it was thought to have a ring system, with most of it within its Hill sphere. If this was true, it would be the only moon known with a ring system, which you could think of as lots of really tiny moonlets.
Artist's impression of the rings of Rhea
Though we don’t have any binary moons we do have
KERBEROS
Kerberos was a big surprise. they thought it was dark - to the extent, was a puzzle how it could be so dark. But turns out it is bright, and probably a "contact binary" like comet 67P.
New Horizons image of Kerberos. Its brightness is puzzling as on the face of it, it would seem to imply that it is absurdly dense, far denser than an iron meteorite, many times denser than lead. So, that's denser even than platinum. Perhaps there is something not taken account of in the gravity calculations as the author of the original paper that predicted a dark Kerberos has suggested. moonlet.
So that brings up also the idea of a contact binary moon in place of our Moon. That should work. Also a Rocheworld.
If the two planets are tidally locked to each other, there is no problem of them tearing each other apart through tidal forces so they can be so close together even that they touch.
You could replace our Earth with a Roche world like that and it could still have a Moon. Similarly you could replace the Moon with a Roche-Moon too :). You could have a “roche Moon” orbiting a “Roche world”.
Or a doublet of two moons orbiting each other like the double asteroids. There is no reason why you couldn’t also have a binary moon too. They have to orbit inside each others’ “Roche sphere” or the tidal forces of the parent body will tear them apart from each other and they will become co-orbiting moons instead - but there is no reason why that can’t happen.
Just don’t happen to have any in our solar system, at least not so far discovered. Always possible that more distant planets not yet discovered have binary moons.
See also my Robert Walker's answer to Do moons have moons - much of this is an extract from it.
It can’t be done in secret. The spaceship have to communicate back to Earth and even if the communications are encrypted, it’s easy for a radio telescope to track the motion of the spaceship. Durin...
(more)It can’t be done in secret. The spaceship have to communicate back to Earth and even if the communications are encrypted, it’s easy for a radio telescope to track the motion of the spaceship. During the space race, big radio telescopes like Jodrell Bank tracked every launch of the Russians to the Moon and knew exactly what they were doing. They could use laser instead but there is no way they could keep the laser so exactly focused that there is no leakage for other countries to track visually.
Anyway Russia aren’t interested in colonizing Mars. Of all the private space agencies only SpaceX are interested - Bigelow aerospace for instance have a lunar base as their main interest. The Moon may have near term commercial value for space tourism, and there are many potential revenue streams also for supply to LEO mining ice at the poles. It’s also got the vast lunar caves, and the peaks of eternal light at its poles are perhaps the most easy of all places to build a habitat in the near future.
Also humans on Mars have planetary protection issues. It makes far more sense scientifically to explore it from Earth or from orbit around the planet. Also it’s the riskiest place of all to land on, and it is so far away. You are committed to a two year voyage without a lifeboat if you go to Mars in the vacuum of space, like traveling on a submarine, but if there is any emergency, you can’t surface and breathe the air. If you go to the Moon, you can have lifeboats with supplies for all the crew to get back to Earth in two days, loaded up and ready to fly. You can’t do that with Mars. If you have some anomaly as the spaceship leaves Earth orbit, it is already too late, you can’t reverse and come back to Earth. The ship’s velocity will be too great. It relies on orbiting to Mars and back again to Earth to return. So an Apollo 13 situation the crew don’t have to just go around the Moon then return to Earth, they have to go around Mars and return to get back, and have to somehow last for two years without material help from Earth.
Humans on Mars have planetary protection issues also. Why destroy the science value of the planet for the search for extra terrestrial life, what may turn out to be the most significant discovery in biology of this century? We don’t know what the situation is like because our spacecraft can’t be sterilized sufficiently to approach the regions on the surface that are potentially habitable to life. But there are many such known, discovered in the last six years. Whether any are actually habitable, nobody knows. But many are promising. For life living at the edge, in just droplets and thin seeps of salty liquid here and there on the surface, or using the surface 100% humidity at night directly. Yet, these could be extraterrestrial microbes, perhaps early forms of life that have become extinct on Earth (RNA world life for instance) or life based on a different biology. The potential science value is very high. Why should one want to destroy this science value of Mars? It’s been waiting there for billions of years, what is the hurry to land humans on the surface? Why not explore from Earth or via telepresence from orbit until we understand the situation there better?
For all these reasons then the Moon is the obvious place to send humans first. And at present NASA plan to have humans only in orbit around the Moon while everyone else sets up bases on the surface.
Anyway none of the space agencies show any desire to “go it alone”. Even China wants to be part of an international collaboration in space like the ISS. The only reason China has a separate space station is because the US has a law which forbids them to collaborate with China. ESA want to collaborate with China in space and so do Russia and everyone else except the US. So if we have that future scenario with the US in orbit around the Moon and everyone else on the surface, China would surely join in too, in the ESA lunar village.
ESA Moon village idea. Everyone except the US has their eyes firmly focused on the Moon at present - the obvious first place to go from Earth. And barely explored - our longest mission there lasted for two days and we have only ever sent a single scientist to the Moon, which is so large it’s like a vast new unexplored continent. New discoveries include cave entrances which in the low gravity could lead to caves kilometers in diameter, and ice at the poles which may amount to hundreds of millions of tons of ice, with millions of tons of carbon dioxide, methane and ammonia.
Mars is not worth colonizing anyway. It’s got a near vacuum and is not that different from the Moon. Indeed in many comparisons the Moon comes out better than Mars, up to a colony of a million people or so at least. Both are harder to colonize than a mountain plateau several times the height of Mount Everest. For that reason, I think myself that we aren’t going to have colonization of space in the near future, though we may have space settlement, that’s rather likely. The difference is, I see settlement as like what we do in Antarctica, scientific bases, tourist facilities. Plus a bit like the sea bed. Again living on the sea bed would be far far easier than living in space, yet we don’t do it. So they have to have very good reasons to be there.
The Moon also has much by way of scientific interest too.
We don’t need Mars for a backup. There’s no natural disaster to make us extinct in less than hundreds of millions of years into the future. We can use the Moon for a backup of knowledge, seeds etc in addition to Earth itself.
I go into this in a lot more detail in my
See also my MOON FIRST - Why Humans on Mars Right Now are Bad for Scienceavailable to read online for free
It’s not harmful to us at least not immediately. But it’s harmful to science. The Outer Space Treaty text calls it “harmful contamination” and that’s been taken as including harmful to the science ...
(more)It’s not harmful to us at least not immediately. But it’s harmful to science. The Outer Space Treaty text calls it “harmful contamination” and that’s been taken as including harmful to the science experiments of the parties to the treaty.
To understand the value, you need to realize what it is that scientists might find there. It could be the most significant breakthrough in biology of the twentyfirst century. Future historians of biology might talk about Darwin’s theory of evolution in the nineteenth century, the helical structure of DNA and understanding of how DNA works in the twentieth century, and discoveries of exobiology in the twentyfirst century.
So - we just should not mess that up. Not when we don’t know what there is that we could discover. Not through ignorance. We have made so many other mistakes and it’s well within our capabilities to make a mistake as big as this.
The rest of this is from one of my kindle books. MOON FIRST - Why Humans on Mars Right Now are Bad for Science.
WHAT WE COULD DISCOVER
What we discover there could include any of:
It might seem hard to get excited about microbes - but think of them as microbe ETs, and perhaps you may see them in a different light. As minute emissaries from another biological cosmos, tiny beings with a potentially totally different biochemistry.
This next video shows how DNA makes protein. Notice how complex the process is.
It happens in exactly the same way in every cell of every single Earth creature. Imagine what it would be like to find a cell that does it differently?
I've heard it said that the interior of a cell is so complex, with its million different chemicals, and elaborate structures and processes, that to researchers studying how cells work, it seems as complex as an entire ecosystem. So, what about using actual ecosystems as an analogy here?
Imagine that you have been brought up in the African savannah - with its grasses and trees, elephants and antelopes. You've never seen a marsh or a forest, or a beach. All your life you've lived in a hut in the African Savannah, never traveled more than a few miles from your hut, and that's the only thing you've ever known.
Then one day someone takes you to the sea shore, with its fish, shellfish, seaweeds, and sea anemones, and perhaps they take you on a dive to see a coral reef.
A Blue Starfish (Linckia laevigata) resting on hard Acropora coral. Lighthouse, Ribbon Reefs, Great Barrier Reef. Photo by Richard Ling
The interior of a cell of XNA based life could be as different from the interior of a cell of DNA based life as the African Savannah is different from a coral reef. And imagine the new perspectives we might get if we can study it.
The search for life is the main motive for all the missions to Mars to date. Look at how excitedly NASA reports yet another discovery of possible past or present water on Mars. And what a huge anticlimax it would be to get there, find life, it's headline news in all the papers, and then follows the anticlimactic announcement that it was just life that was brought there by the human explorers themselves! Then would follow speculation and questions about whether there was any native Mars life there before the Earth microbes got there, maybe never answered definitively. Or we find evidence that there was some native life that went extinct in the very decade that humans landed there, an ecosystem of many Mars microbes interacting, now gone. Or we find some present day indigenous life, but it is already getting overwhelmed by microbes from Earth, and there follows a rush to try to find it in the many different potential habitats on Mars before it goes extinct.
I think the example of an early form of life is the easiest to use here to show how vulnerable native Mars life could be, potentially. It could be some form of life that was been made extinct on Earth billions of years ago, RNA world life say. It might not last for long after more modern life from Earth gets to Mars.
For more about this see my article Will We Meet ET Microbes On Mars? Why We Should Care Deeply About Them - Like Tigers
See also my MOON FIRST - Why Humans on Mars Right Now are Bad for Science available to read online for free
No, but it would be good to flag them in some way. For instance, to display the text in red, and have an icon to warn that it is a fake news site.
There are many sites that actually declare that the...
(more)No, but it would be good to flag them in some way. For instance, to display the text in red, and have an icon to warn that it is a fake news site.
There are many sites that actually declare that they are fake sites in their “About” page. There are others that post only fake news but don’t say so.
Others are unreliable and sensationalist, such as the British “red top tabloids” which often exaggerate or produce out and out hoax stories and often don’t check their facts at all in science stories but just run them based on hearsay, youtube videos or something they read in another paper. They do no more fact checking than a facebook friend who shares a link they find striking, and often embellish the stories as well.
I think we can rely on quora answers to deal with much of this but that it would help a lot if the out and out fake sites, the satirical ones, and the sensationalist ones were flagged in some way.
I suggest that as you paste the url into your answer - that when quora fetches the text for the url that it gets automatically coloured red if it is a fake or satirical or sensationalist site. Possibly with a gradation of colours depending on the type, maybe an icon. Also to have an option for the author of the answer or question to select one of those options to colour the url when they share a link they know to be fake which Quora hasn’t highlighted yet, or indeed to remove the colour when they know it is genuine if they think Quora has made a mistake. Maybe it is a site that usually publishes fake news but in this one instance has actually published something accurate and good.
So leave the control with authors of questions and answers, but flag the sites clearly.
As a starting point, they can use the lists here Here are all the fake 'news' sites to watch out for on Facebook by Melissa Zimdars, a media professor at Merrimack College in Massachusetts, and List of satirical news websites - Wikipedia
I think a similar system would work well for facebook too. After all the satirical sites like the Onion especially can be fun to share so long as everyone knows it is satirical, some out and out over the top story that pokes fun at journalist excesses, for instance. Also how can you debunk them if they can’t be shared?
So I don’t think they should be prohibited, here or on facebook. Just flagged in some easy to recognize way.
Perhaps also - could have an option to disable this flagging? If there is anyone who prefers not to know if it is fake… Is there? I think that on April 1st some might like to be fooled for a short while. Do you label April Fool stories as “April Fool”? That might be a gray area. But I think nobody probably likes to be fooled permanently though.
I’d like to see Peter Capaldi continue too :). Had some really good performances from him and he captures the character of the doctor, another facet, really well.
So, not for third season, who knows...
(more)I’d like to see Peter Capaldi continue too :). Had some really good performances from him and he captures the character of the doctor, another facet, really well.
So, not for third season, who knows how many, but it would be nice to have a female doctor I think. Also would be nice to have a coloured doctor. Why not combine the two?
If I can be permitted to name anyone, even if not an actress and probably unlikely to accept the job, then I have a suggestion :). Suggestion for a fun character to be the next doctor.
As far as I know she isn’t an actress. And don’t suppose that she would have the time to be interested. But someone who I think would enjoy doing it, and in terms of character, the science and space fun and enthusiasm of Dr Maggie Aderin Pocock is very “Doctor Who” like I think. She is also interested in science fiction:
About here and her interest in science fiction in space and her life story.
If you haven’t seen her present:
I can imagine her as a fun Doctor Who :). Maybe also bring in some more real science into the program, could still be a lot of fun, not serious at all, but add in just a bit more of actual science as well.
If she can’t be the next doctor, I wonder if a cameo role? After all Patrick Moore who presented Sky at Night for so long, until he died and she and Chris Lintott took over, made a cameo appearance, in a Doctor Who spoof:
Spoof on Dead Ringers, with Jon Culshaw impersonating Tom Baker.
The spoof relates to the story line of Pyramids of Mars I think (correct me if I’m wrong)
He also appears in this children in Need clip, just opening the Tardis door and saying he always wanted to do that.
And then also appeared briefly as himself in a real Doctor Who episode “Eleventh Hour” though I can’t find a clip to share here.
DOCTOR WHO: What if PATRICK MOORE was The Doctor
WHAT ABOUT A NEW DOCTOR FOR JUST ONE EPISODE
I suppose what I’d like to see in a new doctor most of all is a return to the fun and enthusiasm of some of the early doctors. I’ve watched Doctor Who since the first episode came out, so from William Hartnell onwards. My favourites of the early doctors are Jon Pertwee and Tom Baker. The modern doctors have much more guilt and anguish, and also caught up in romantic tangles in one way or another. I can understand why that is needed with a new audience, and it is part of a spectrum with much that is also light in tone too. I do enjoy the modern doctor who and have many favourite episodes.
But I think it would do no harm to return at least occasionally to the earlier spirit of the show which is much lighter in tone. If it is too much to do that for an entire season, why not have a single episode with a new doctor.
We’ve had that already, with John Hurt (the “War Doctor”), also Paul McCann was a doctor just for one film. So why not a new guest star doctor for a single episode? That then would make it possible to explore some new slant without the feeling that this is a commitment for many future episodes.
If so, this could even happen right now, within a series of another doctor. I’m sure they could figure out some story line according to which Peter Capaldi becomes another doctor with a completely different character, in some kind of temporary regeneration, for a single episode.
Also the doctor need not even spend a lot of time on screen. For instance in “Blink” one of my favourites, the doctor hardly appears at all, yet his few appearances are very significant.
So you could have an episode with a guest doctor without them needing to make a huge time commitment, and perhaps even a non actor as they would not need to express the full range of emotions an actor has to express in a long running series. They could be pretty much themselves for that one episode.
For me, the top reason is the risk of contaminating Mars with Earth microbes. That’s especially important because in the last eight years we have found many possible habitats for life on the surfac...
(more)For me, the top reason is the risk of contaminating Mars with Earth microbes. That’s especially important because in the last eight years we have found many possible habitats for life on the surface of Mars. We don’t know if they are habitable or not. But with the plans of Elon Musk or NASA they would send humans to Mars before we have had a chance to send our robots to look at them close up at all.
Many of these may be seeps of liquid brine that are either too salty for life or too cold. But some may not be. For a particularly intriguing one, see my Does Ice Act As Greenhouse On Mars - Fresh Liquid Water Habitats In Spring 10-20 Cms Below Polar Ice?
One of many types of seasonal process on Mars - these seeps though might be the result of liquid fresh water forming underneath transparent ice, then flowing out onto the surface mixed with salts as a salty brine.
This shows the location of Richardson Crater where these seeps occur. Mars has similar surface area to Earth’s continents, and it would take a fair number of rover missions to get even a first basic biological survey. This might be one of the more intriguing places to visit first. For details see:
That one might even have water at 0 C on the surface of Mars protected from evaporating by a thin sheet of transparent blue ice.
In total there are about eight suggested types of potential habitat. And the thing is we can’t send a spacecraft up to look at them until we are able to sterilize them 100%. But the spacecraft missions planned to Mars for the near future are not sufficiently sterilized and will have to avoid these potential habitats. They are looking mainly for past life. That includes ExoMars and Curiosity2020 - though ExoMars does have a mission to search for both present and past life it wouldn’t be able to go up to a potential habitat for present day life and inspect it directly.
So they can’t explore them and we can’t spot microbes or even lichens or small microscopic multicellular lifeforms if they exist, from orbit. If these habitats exist, they are just on the edge of habitability. But life may be very tenacious once evolved, so if there ever was life on Mars in the past, perhaps it is still there. These habitats are just on the edge of habitability but as Nilton Renno said, for a microbe a tiny droplet of salty water is like a huge swimming pool. A few microbes in droplets of water, photosynthetic life beneath the skin of rocks, lichens crouching in shadows to protect themselves from direct UV light - these are not going to be easy to see from orbit and chances are they are impossible to see until you can send a rover right up close to look at them.
You might think microbes are boring. But these could be extra terrestrial microbes, which turns them into something that could be not only interesting, but the next breakthrough in biology. The amount we could learn from them is staggering if they are indeed different from Earth life in some essential way. They could be
So, the colonists want to just go ahead and land humans on Mars anyway before we know what is there. They tell us they think the chance that there is anything there that can be harmed by Earth life is tiny. But how can they know without looking?
If we send humans there without looking first, we have no idea what the effect would be of Earth microbes on Mars. And that’s especially so since the landing on Mars is the most risky in our inner solar system. See my Why Spacecraft Crash On Mars
A crash on Mars of a human occupied spacecraft would be the end of planetary protection of the planet. A safe human landing would probably be also, in the sense that it would introduce trillions of spores from the planet that would gradually spread in the dust storms. They would do their best to slow down the inevitable but would not be able to guarantee to contain it.
I think it is just far far too soon to do something irreversible like this. After introducing Earth microbes to Mars, irreversibly - that means - that we have changed Mars for all future time. No future civilization in our solar system, not just ourselves and our descendants but nobody ever would be able to study Mars as it was before the introduced Earth life.
Is it right to take the chance that perhaps this might have no harmful consequences, when the positive consequences of keeping Mars pristine coudl be so great?
Note it is not about whether we exploit Mars or not. If we can mine it, make fuel there, grow crops even using hydroponics or aerponics tended telerobotically - if it doesn’t introduce Earth microbes irreversibly, then that’s different.
But how can anyone, even if they are CEO of a large company and very wealthy, or director of a space agency - how can they make such a decision for the rest of humanity?
Well - they have all said they will comply with the requirements for planetary protection. So it’s a matter of what those requirements are. I think that we should have the Moon as our first objective for humans, do our experiments and tests there. The Moon is of great interest too. Then have humans to Mars orbit - but also to Venus, Callisto, Mercury etc as the longer term goal. But not have humans to the Mars surface as a fixed term goal at all. Let’s first find out if there are habitats on the surface, find out what is in those habitats, find out if Earth microbes will impact on Mars and if so how. Let’s decide what to do next only after we have that understanding of Mars.
That may take some time. Carl Sagan used a figure of 54 landers and 30 orbiters for a biological exploration. If we sent two landers and one orbiter to Mars every two year opportunity that would take more than half a century and that is a very sketchy first exploration given that the surface area is similar to Earth’s and there are many different potential types of habitat there to study. Or we might find a habitat for life on our first mission sufficiently sterlized to explore them. We might speed it up a lot with telerobotic exploration from orbit, or miniaturized robotic landers or both.
But anyway I think that needs to be our near term objective for Mars - robotic study from Earth then telerobotic study from orbit. It can be an exciting mission. For more about this see my
MOON FIRST Why Humans on Mars Right Now Are Bad for Science
Also available on Kindle MOON FIRST Why Humans on Mars Right Now Are Bad for Science:
Nemesis (hypothetical star) was postulated to orbit at a distance of 1.5 light years about a third of the way to the nearest stars. At that distance, passing stars would sometimes pass between it a...
(more)Nemesis (hypothetical star) was postulated to orbit at a distance of 1.5 light years about a third of the way to the nearest stars. At that distance, passing stars would sometimes pass between it and our sun. Scholz’s star passed within 0.4 light years of our sun 70,000 years ago. See A Star Passed Through the Solar System Just 70,000 Years Ago - Universe Today
Yet Nemesis was thought to be a stable orbit for a second star. It’s been pretty much ruled out by the WISE infrared survey as an orbit for a star but there could still be a very cold brown dwarf star at that distance - if so it would have to be one of the coldest brown dwarfs you can get, so not very likely.
So anyway - at that distance of course it would be vulnerable to being detached from our solar system if a star happened to pass close by. But that’s very unlikely, as unlikely as a star doing a close flyby of our own solar system.
So, I don’t think there is a firm limit. And the Oort cloud is thought to extend pretty much to the nearest stars. As stars pass each other then comets may get shifted from one to another or become rogue comets / planets that are not attached to any star. So we could even have comets out there that originally orbited other stars in the past.
Unless the planet is very heavy then its mass won’t make much difference - its trajectory will be the same whatever its mass unless it is able to deflect the passing star in some way - and I’m not sure whether that would be a plus or a minus for it to be massive enough to deflect passing stars significantly as far as stability is concerned.
There’s a risk both ways. Earth microbes could contaminate Mars and Mars microbes could contaminate Earth. This is the risk of forward and backward contamination.
If there is Mars life and humans ha...
(more)There’s a risk both ways. Earth microbes could contaminate Mars and Mars microbes could contaminate Earth. This is the risk of forward and backward contamination.
If there is Mars life and humans have landed on Mars, then you would think that surely before then they have studied this life and found out that they will not make it extinct (or that it is so uninteresting for some reason that it makes no difference if it goes extinct) and it is no harm to us.
However the problem here is that humans can be very impatient and they might land on Mars without first investigating to find out what life there is there and if Earth life is harmful to Mars or vice versa. We actually have it as a requirement under international law to protect Mars and other places in the solar system from Earth life and vice versa. All our space agencies abide by this ruling, and we have international meetings every two years of thousands of scientists to examine it carefully and develop guidelines.
Joshua Lederberg, Nobel prize winning microbial geneticist was amongst the first to draw attention to the issue of back contamination. So, yes, it’s not likely that Mars microbes are adapted to infect humans. But on the other hand, humans are not adapted to defend ourselves against Mars microbes. Our defense systems work by looking out for particular chemical signatures of life. But what if Mars life doesn’t have those signatures? It might seem no more harmful to our bodies than an artificial implant. That’s especially possible if it has a different biochemical basis from Earth life maybe without proteins, DNA, etc.
Then also diseases can leap to higher animals from microbes. As an example, legionnaires disease is a disease of amoebae that uses the same mechanism to infect humans. So similarly, Mars microbes adapted to infect other Mars microbes could perhaps also harm us.
Then also if the life is related to Earth life, even billions of years ago, then it could engage in horizontal gene transfer. Happens very readily overnight in sea water. The result would be microbes with mixed capabilities of Earth and Mars life.
However there are many other ways microbes from Mars could be harmful. They could cause no direct harm to humans but harm our crops, plants, animals. They could harm our ecosystems or the oceans.
I think one of the best examples myself, just to get you thinking about the possibilities, is a photosynthetic lifeform. Life on Earth does photosynthesis in three main ways - involving oxygen, involving sulfur, and the other way is to use a proton pump, this uses light to create a proton gradient which is used to produce chemical energy in the form of ATP which the organism can then use as a source of energy.
So what if Mars has life based on some fourth form of photosynthesis and then this life is returned to Earth? It might take it a while to adapt to our oceans or it might do it rapidly. Anyway now suppose that this form of photosynthesis is more efficient n some way than the photosynthesis we have already? Then it outcompetes the green algae and other photobionts in the oceans.
And suppose it is inedible to sea life, or is even poisonous, creates chemicals that poison Earth life. Doesn’t have to be adapted to it, to do that, e.g. green algae produce BMAA which is implicated in Alzheimers. No advantage to the green algae to do that. Just got an accidental similarity with L-Serine, gets misincorporated and causes protein folding problems.
In this way a small microbe could disturb an entire ecosystem - all sea creatures that depend on the algae and photobyonts. Then also all creatures that eat them, and so on.
That’s just an example to get you thinking, to realize that we can’t really hope to anticipate all possibilities here. There is no substitute for actually knowing what is there.
I think we just should not send humans to Mars until we know what we are dealing with - in either direction. And we should also be very careful about returning samples from Mars. Instead of returning them to the Earth surface - why not return them to a high orbit above Earth, above GEO say? Then study them there in a preliminary way. If there is no life, sterilize just to be sure and return to Earth swiftly. If there is life, then study it in orbit until we know what we are dealing with and then take the appropriate precautions - or maybe not return it at all. We can always break off smaller samples and sterilize them and return them to Earth for the geologists.
Anyway for more about this, see my
Why quarantine won't work - protecting Earth, and humans sent to Mars, from Mars life (if it exists)
All the Apollo landings were done during a waxing crescent phase, first quarter. They needed to land when the light was at the right angle. Apollo 11 had to land during a narrow time window of sixt...
(more)All the Apollo landings were done during a waxing crescent phase, first quarter. They needed to land when the light was at the right angle. Apollo 11 had to land during a narrow time window of sixteen hours every 29.5 days, so that they could see the lunar features during the descent flight path to the Moon. They could only land when the sun was at an elevation of between 5° to 14°. Too high and the sun would be directly behind them so that they couldn't make out any shadows at all, the landscape would be "washed out". Too low and most of the landscape would be shadowed.
It was also easier to do it in the early morning, before it gets too hot. Leaves plenty of time also, sun not going to set for many days. If they’d landed in the late evening on the Moon that would have meant it was getting darker and colder the longer they stayed.
Since they landed near the center of the Moon and somewhat towards the side that the sun lights up first (right hand side as seen from Earth’s northern hemisphere), that makes it a waxing crescent phase.
Apollo 11 Moon Landing: How It Worked (Infographic)
This is even more of an issue at the lunar poles. Probably won’t be able to do visual landings there. Long shadows on the Moon, especially at the poles
Legally he can, the chain of command starts with him and there is no dual launch system. That’s because they needed the president to be able to make a rapid decision in an emergency with only minut...
(more)Legally he can, the chain of command starts with him and there is no dual launch system. That’s because they needed the president to be able to make a rapid decision in an emergency with only minutes to decide. However he doesn’t launch them himself, there is no button to press. The order would then go through his defense secretary and then the Joint Chiefs of Staff and then to the Commanders
"The NCA consists only of the President and the Secretary of Defense or their duly deputized alternates or successors. The chain of command runs from the President to the Secretary of Defense and through the Joint Chiefs of Staff to the Commanders of the Unified and Specified Commands.”
World-Wide Military Command and Control System, DoD Directive S-5100.30
So, in practice, a president who ordered a nuclear attack in peacetime has to be obeyed by many people. He might well face some kind of a mutinous action, refusal to follow his orders, moves to be declared unfit to govern etc.
So, no he can’t just do this. He’d need to argue a case with others around him. If not, surely they would mutiny. That’s always an option. No matter how many agreements you sign, nobody can make you do something that you can see clearly to be ethically and morally unsound. What does it matter if you lose your job in a situation like that? Anyway the chances are that it’s the president who would be more likely to end up out of a job after the dust settles.
Details here with cites and discussion: Debunking: A President Of The US Could Order A Nuclear Attack At A Moments Notice On A Whim
Just to add for anyone who doesn’t know, the US astronauts do have a system they can use for self rescue. It can’t be used with the Russian Orlan suits though.
Hopefully this piece of kit which they...
(more)Just to add for anyone who doesn’t know, the US astronauts do have a system they can use for self rescue. It can’t be used with the Russian Orlan suits though.
Hopefully this piece of kit which they carry with them on every space walk could get them back to the ISS in an emergency. Simplified Aid For EVA Rescue
It’s not got quite as much fuel as the MMU (which is no longer in use). Instead of 11.8 kilograms of nitrogen, it’s only got 1.4 kg which is enough for a delta v of 3.05 meters per second, or about 6/8 miles per hour - equivalent to a fast jog.
However, that should be enough to get back to the ISS after an accident that leaves them drifting in space at a moderate speed away from it. Never been used in an emergency though it has been tested in controlled conditions in space. One of the most useful features is that it can automatically stop the astronaut from tumbling. This would be very hard to do yourself, to do little nudges this way and that while tumbling over some random axis, to stop yourself from tumbling.
This is the last time it was tested:
WHAT ABOUT COMING BACK TO THE ISS?
If they drift away from the ISS, then the astronaut ends in an orbit similar to that of the ISS. If they drift away directly towards or away from Earth, the orbit will be the same period as the ISS, and in theory they should come back to the ISS half an orbit later, cross it and then end up going in the opposite direction, then back to where they started a full orbit later.
If they drift sideways relative to Earth - then they go into an orbit at a slightly different inclination, and the result is similar. The orbit has the same semi-major axis - so the exact same period. Same if they head off in any direction in the plane perpendicular to the direction of travel around the Earth.
That’s in theory. In practice, they would also have a different amount of drag in the very thin atmosphere up there, so will spiral slightly towards the Earth too compared to the ISS.
However chances are they go off in some random direction, not exactly in that convenient plane.
Worst case is that they drift away in the direction of travel around the Earth, or the opposite to the direction of travel.
If they do that they get further and further ahead or further and further behind rather quickly. Suppose they travel away at 2 m / sec, then every minute they will end up 120 meters further away. Every time the ISS orbits the Earth every 92 minutes, the astronaut gets an extra 11 kilometers ahead of it or behind it every orbit, and they get further away by 5.5 kilometers away after half an orbit.
So, the most likely scenario is that they miss the position from which they left the ISS originally by kilometers. To hit it they have to get thrown away from the ISS rather exactly in the plane perpendicular to its motion around the Earth.
Even traveling at quite a slow relative pace, the astronaut soon gets far from the ISS. This deployment of an old Russian spacesuit as a “suitsat” shows how it goes:
And so long as they throw it at least somewhat forward or backwards relative to the ISS’s orbit there is no risk of it hitting the ISS. It was thrown within the “cone of safety” to ensure no recontact with the ISS.
A typical space walk lasts for several hours List of International Space Station spacewalks - Wikipedia. So - if they got thrown off the ISS early in the space walk, there is some chance of them getting back to the ISS, would come past it several times, at a distance of a few kilometers - that’s where the question arises, whether you could do anything with the Soyuz TMA or the robotic arm.
That’s like asking where the population comes from which streams into London every rush hour and vanishes in the evening. Somewhere else. Yes, could be other worlds like ours - that’s an easy idea ...
(more)That’s like asking where the population comes from which streams into London every rush hour and vanishes in the evening. Somewhere else. Yes, could be other worlds like ours - that’s an easy idea to consider now that we know that most of the stars in the sky have exoplanets orbiting them.
Also many of these religions also have the idea that there may be many other realms of existence. That we see the world in a particular way and that there may be others who see our universe in ways that are so different from the way we do, that we can’t even see them, and maybe they can’t see us either. For instance there may be realms of pure thought where you don’t even need a body - the idea of a body made of light, and the idea of not needing a body at all, just pure thought.
If you think that has to be impossible for scientific reasons, well, science itself is part of the world we find ourselves in. Suppose you had a dream, so vivid that you can’t know if you are awake or sleeping? Some people do dream as vividly as that. The famous Nobel prize winning scientist Richard Feynmann was one of those who describes having very vivid dreams, as vivid as real life, and as scientifically detailed too. Well you could be a scientist in that dream. If you are a scientist in real life, it may even be quite likely that you dream that you are a scientist. When you wake up - what has happened to all your dream scientific instruments, calculations and theories? Not saying that this is a dream, but reflecting on that might help one to understand the views of those who think science doesn’t answer all questions of this nature. At least, not yet in its current form. Will it ever?
Also is it possible for an animal or bird or insect to be born as a human? Many of those who believe in reincarnation think that this is possible. If so, well humans are just a tiny fraction of the beings there are even on our world.
But what about the past before there was any life on Earth? If you believe in reincarnation and think it has been going on pretty much endlessly - then it’s not much different whether you go back to the beginning of our Earth or the beginning of our universe - means there must have been something previous to that. So what form of life did any of us take before there was life on Earth, or indeed even anywhere in our universe? Or did it have a beginning somehow? Or is that question itself somehow missing the point?
Their mythologies do actually address that, they talk about times when the entire world system is destroyed, and then it forms again. It’s a bit like the transition from one life to another for an individual. So the cosmos forms again, the beings within it also, and there is some kind of continuity from the previous cosmos, a causal continuity.
And anyway - how does time work? Do you have to be reborn the instant you die? Or weeks later after spending some time in an intermediate state? Can you go into some kind of limbo state, reborn millions of years later? Does time even run the same way for you after you die and before you are reborn, if there are intermediate states?
So, it leaves many questions open for sure. But that’s true of all the ideas about what happens when we die.
I’m Buddhist myself, and in Buddhist teachings then the most important thing is to have an open mind about what happens when one dies, as about everything else. Indeed Buddha warned that spending too much time on some of those questions which we can’t answer can embroil you in “a thicket of views, a wilderness of views, a contortion of views, a writhing of views, a fetter of views”
"This is how he attends inappropriately: 'Was I in the past? Was I not in the past? What was I in the past? How was I in the past? Having been what, what was I in the past? Shall I be in the future? Shall I not be in the future? What shall I be in the future? How shall I be in the future? Having been what, what shall I be in the future?' Or else he is inwardly perplexed about the immediate present: 'Am I? Am I not? What am I? How am I? Where has this being come from? Where is it bound?'
"As he attends inappropriately in this way, one of six kinds of view arises in him: The view I have a self arises in him as true & established, or the view I have no self... or the view It is precisely by means of self that I perceive self... or the view It is precisely by means of self that I perceive not-self... or the view It is precisely by means of not-self that I perceive self arises in him as true & established, or else he has a view like this: This very self of mine — the knower that is sensitive here & there to the ripening of good & bad actions — is the self of mine that is constant, everlasting, eternal, not subject to change, and will stay just as it is for eternity. This is called a thicket of views, a wilderness of views, a contortion of views, a writhing of views, a fetter of views. Bound by a fetter of views, the uninstructed run-of-the-mill person is not freed from birth, aging, & death, from sorrow, lamentation, pain, distress, & despair. He is not freed, I tell you, from suffering & stress.
"The well-instructed disciple of the noble ones — who has regard for noble ones, is well-versed & disciplined in their Dhamma; who has regard for men of integrity, is well-versed & disciplined in their Dhamma — discerns what ideas are fit for attention and what ideas are unfit for attention. This being so, he does not attend to ideas unfit for attention and attends [instead] to ideas fit for attention.
Basically it helps to have a bit of humour here, to be more relaxed about this, to realize that there are things that we don’t know answers to.
I’d say it’s the opposite actually. We do protect species on Earth now. By considering human landings on Mars at all when we have the possibility of a crash that would introduce Earth life to Mars ...
(more)I’d say it’s the opposite actually. We do protect species on Earth now. By considering human landings on Mars at all when we have the possibility of a crash that would introduce Earth life to Mars irreversibly - they are taking less care than they would e.g. if they wanted to send a submarine into lake Vostok in Antarctica. There is no need to do it this way. We can make it our opportunity to do things right this time around - both on Mars and on Earth.
They agree that potentially it’s an irreversible change, if you introduce life there through human missions to Mars. But if you follow through the consequences of what that means - the results would be that if there are habitats there that Earth life can reach - spread in the Mars dust storms - then not only us, also none of our descendants, will be able to study Mars as it is now without the introduced Earth life. No future civilizations that arise in our solar system will be able to do that either. If it was reversible, fine, but extinction is for ever. This is for an entire planet too.
I think we should send humans to the Moon and to Mars orbit first, and make Mars orbit our long term destination, not the surface. Also Mercury, Venus, Jupiter’s Callisto, many other places, but let’s leave off sending humans to the Mars surface until we understand it better.
As you can see, the Russians drilled all except the last few meters, and then they waited while they figured out how to do the last bit without contaminating lake Vostok with the drilling fluids and with surface life.
You wouldn’t be permitted to take a human occupied submarine into this lake, not yet anyway, because it has been isolated from the surface for millions of years. Scientists want to be able to study whatever life is there without contaminating it with life from the surface first.
Yet they are considering sending humans to the Mars surface, and want to do that before we have any chance to do anything like a reasonable survey of the planet with robots first. There are many potential habitats on the surface now known, see for instance Does Ice Act As Greenhouse On Mars - Fresh Liquid Water Habitats In Spring 10-20 Cms Below Polar Ice? for a striking rarely reported possibility. Their plan is to send humans to the surface long before we have a chance to study any of those habitats close up uncontaminated. How can that be right?
With Mars we have a chance to get it right. We have already made many species extinct on Earth. Back at the time that we made the Dodo and then the Passenger pigeon extinct, then nobody had even given it much thought. The extinction of the passenger pigeon was something of a wake up call.
However we have changed. If we’d kept our nineteenth century attitudes, then the blue whale would certainly be extinct by now, and many other species. A large part of our population does care about such things now. And we are managing to save species here too.
In the case of Mars then - it’s not species of microbes only. We have no idea what is there but it could be entire new realms of life.
Microbes yes, but extra terrestrial microbes that are not even based on DNA. Or their last common ancestor was billions of years ago. The most recent common ancestor would be at least 66 million years ago probably, because you need an impact on Earth large enough to send material through our thick atmosphere with sufficient speed to escape Earth’s gravity - like the Apollo spacecraft - and to travel all the way to Mars.
But not only that, the life has to be able to survive shock of ejection and impact, a century in vacuum and extreme cold, bombarded by cosmic radiation and solar storms, and when it gets to Mars it has to be able to survive in the inhospitable environment there. Also if it is the first lifeform to get there, it has to survive as a single species ecosystem. It’s not easy. Maybe it has happened, maybe it never has.
What we find on Mars could be a completely different form of life, or it could be that it is an earlier form of life, made extinct on Earth, it could even have evolved further than Earth based life in the harsh environment there (though probably still microbial or at most lichens).
At any rate Mars is surely much more isolated from Earth than anywhere here, even lake Vostok.
For more about this, see my
Just want to say for the Chinese people answering this - the Dalai Lama didn’t come from any noble family - his parents were small farmers. One of twenty in a small village called Taktser which had...
(more)Just want to say for the Chinese people answering this - the Dalai Lama didn’t come from any noble family - his parents were small farmers. One of twenty in a small village called Taktser which hadn’t been settled or farmed for long because of the unpredictable weather. They grew barley, buckwheat and potatoes. He was one of seven children. Unusually, two of his brothers were recognized as tulkus before him. He was discovered at age two. So - no, he is not of a “ruling class” at all. The Office of His Holiness The Dalai Lama
As for him believing in communism, he still does, though he makes it clear that he doesn’t mean Maoist Communism. But he does find the ideas of communism admirable. He has said that many times. He also sees a lot of virtue in democracy too and has said that too.
Buddhism is not a political movement. And there’s a lot of exaggeration in the Chinese accounts of old Tibet which are hardly unbiased and by people who didn’t understand the culture - even the Buddhism in China has a different origin from the Buddhism practiced in Tibet with many customs that would be hard to understand until you know how they work - and as for things like the health care and short lifespan - that was normal back then world wide. Much of the population were nomads and of the ones that farmed, many of them owned their own land. And you are talking about the 1950s. The Dalai Lama has never called for Tibet to be restored to the way it was back then.
When you see the Dalai Lama in ceremonial robes - they are not the robes of his office, as he just wears plain monk’s robes as the Dalai Lama. Rather, they are robes to symbolize qualities of the enlightened mind that Buddhists think we all have. It’s a ceremony to transmit the blessing of a quality we already have in ourselves and the robes are to show the value of those qualities we all have. With these blessings, it’s never the idea of transmitting a quality from them to us.
It’s the idea of a blessing to awaken a quality we have already, for instance, compassion. They think that particular words and symbols and images can help to evoke that quality, even iconography of a human looking figure with hands holding various things, maybe a particular gesture or smile - it’s all evoking compassion in its many forms. So then, any Tibetan lama giving the same blessing would wear the same robes - and would wear them only for the ceremony.
When you read
“Thus His Holiness is also believed to be a manifestation of Chenrezig, in fact the seventy-fourth in a lineage that can be traced back to a Brahmin boy who lived in the time of Buddha Shakyamuni.”
It doesn’t mean that he is the only manifestation of compassion. Compassion of course manifests in many forms. Tibetans think the Dalai Lama carries a special inspiration of compassion, that he can transmit a blessing to awaken the compassion we all have in ourselves. Others can have that special inspiration also. If anyone inspired you to compassion - that person was carrying this very same inspiration which we all have.
There’s no need for anyone else to believe that of course, to think that the ceremonies have any significance. But I think it might help to realize how they are understood. There isn’t any elitist sentiment behind this. It’s all grounded in the idea that all of us are capable of the vast boundless compassion of a Buddha. Not only that, not only capable of it. We actually have that compassion already if we can but relate to it and awaken to it.
The only Tibetan religious costume I know of that is specific to a particular person is the black hat of the Karmapa.
I hope this helps!
It is possible to edit wikipedia for years without any problems. Much of wikipedia is excellent. But then you can run into crazy opposition by other editors who turn out to have immense power withi...
(more)It is possible to edit wikipedia for years without any problems. Much of wikipedia is excellent. But then you can run into crazy opposition by other editors who turn out to have immense power within the tiny world of a small subsection of wikipedia. When you tangle with them, it’s like suddenly ending up in a hall of mirrors, like Alice through the Looking Glass.
One of the most bizarre epsiodes I’ve come across so far is the case of Clarawood123 who after 80 edits found themselves attacked on all sides for the heinous crime of writing about the place where they live. They were warned that this is a “conflict of interest” and eventually after a number of other bizarre incidents, were forced to leave wikipedia. All on the basis of those 80 edits of their first ever article in wikipedia.
“But “glory” doesn’t mean “a nice knock-down argument,” - Alice objected.
“When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.’
’The question is,’ said Alice, ‘whether you can make words mean so many different things.’
’The question is,’ said Humpty Dumpty, ‘which is to be master — that’s all.
Part of Alice’s conversation with Humpty Dumpty in Lewis Carroll’s “Alice through the Looking Glass “
So first to explain how I found out about it - my most recent run in was with an editor called Jytdog. See the Morgellons section of my answer to Is Wikipedia biased? In short this is an article I never edited just posted to the talk page saying in forthright honest fashion that I think it is biased. Jytdog silenced me in that debate, by threatening to take out an action to ban me from the talk page of the article unless I stopped talking there voluntarily. The way they did it was so aggressive and strange, I wanted to find out more.
Anyway, when I talked about this to a wikipedia editor friends off wiki, I learnt that I was right to take this editor very seriously as they are notorious for this sort of thing, and their bizarre conduct is often discussed off wiki. So that’s how I found out about Jytdog’s extraordinary message to Clarawood123.
A “CONFLICT OF INTEREST” TO WRITE ABOUT THE PLACE WHERE YOU LIVE???
Clarawood123 is a newbie editor. They joined in January 2016, and this happens after only 80 edits of wikipedia. It’s their first article, and not surprisingly, all their edits are edits of this article, about the housing estate in Ireland where they live called Clarawood, which also naturally enough they took as a wikipedia user name too.
If you live in the US a bit of background may help. Here in the UK, large estates like this are typically built by the government, rather than private contractors. So it’s just like writing about the village you live in.
So, this is how a UK reader will understand this. Jytdog tells them on their talk page that they have a conflict of interest because they live there! He warns them that they should learn to concede to the better judgement of people who don't live in Clarawood and have never seen the place! He also warns them of a possible financial conflict of interest if they own property in Clarawood - a UK reader will take this as meaning, a conflict if you own a house in Clarawood. It’s quite the most bizarre wikipedia episode I’ve ever seen.
"Hi Clarawood123. I work on conflict of interest issues here in Wikipedia and my attention was called to your situation by the ANI filing. Apparently nobody has talked with you about what we call "conflict of interest" in Wikipedia, which is pretty clearly at the root of the problems you are experiencing. You made it clear in this comment] that you are "a very long term resident of Clarawood with direct experience", and every edit you have made has been about Clarawood. I'm giving you notice of our conflict of interest guideline and will have some comments and questions for you below.
....
As I noted above, it is clear from your username, your editing, and your actual disclosure that you are a long time resident of Clarawood. It is not clear to me if you own the place where you live and have an actual financial conflict of interest, but it is clear that you are very invested in how people see Clarawood, and in your notions about it. This connection to Clarawood - your "interest" in it, is creating a conflict of interest here in Wikipedia, and that conflict is in turn driving the problems you are having with other editors. "
Wikipedia is going stark raving bonkers here!
A bit of background. When Jytdog says " I work on conflict of interest issues here in Wikipedia" that sounds like they have an official post - but no, this is just an editor who has decided they want to patrol wikipedia looking out for conflict of interest issues, they are not speaking for anyone except themselves.
As for the “ANI filing” - that was actually a filing by Clarawood123 themselves to a complaint board on wikipedia called “ANI” just the day before: Problem with admin who has erroneously accused me of disruptive editing on the page Clarawood
Now Jytdog’s aggression towards Clarawood123 is based on a false assumption surely. They must have assumed that Clarawood123 is a property developer writing an article to promote their property for financial gain. But Jytdog just assumes this without proof, doesn’t ask “Are you a property developer”. The attitude there is generally “guilty until proven innocent” basically.
Instead of getting support and sympathy, Clarawood123 find themselves in the middle of what’s called a “boomerang” on wikipedia. You go to complain about some bad conduct, and the argument reverses and you find that everyone is complaining about your conduct instead. Though those boards are supposed to help you, editors who run into issues on wikipedia soon find out that it's best just to steer well clear of thems unless you really know what you are doing, especially if you are a newbie complaining about the behaviour of an established editor there.
So, far from getting support there, suddenly many editors they have never come across before weigh in on whether to topic ban or site ban them.
SENTENCE FIRST, EXAMINE THE EVIDENCE LATER
It’s like the Red Queen in Alice in Wonderland in these dispute boards on wikipedia. They really could do with the advice of someone with some experience in the judiciary. It is all back to front. The editors there are rapid to sentence you first, declare you are guilty, then go on to examine the evidence - you try to defend yourself from this assumption of guilt after many people have already said you are guilty and sentenced you.
And you have no assistance. There is no system by which a neutral third party helps newbie editors to present their case. It’s like a legal case where you are sentenced first by the jury, then try to persuade the jury to reverse their sentence, have no judge, only a jury, and have no-one to help you mount a defense.
Alice's Adventures Under Ground - Lewis Carroll - British Library - original MS for Alice in Wonderland
You can read the debate here: Proposed ban / WP:BOOMERANG of Clarawood123
As you see, four editors say they should be topic banned, four say they should be site banned meaning prohibited from editing wikipedia at all in any topic area, and four oppose or strongly oppose. And many of them have already made their judgement before Clarawood123 learns about the case.
Probably many of them made the same assumption Jytdog made. Perhaps that’s why Clarawood123 faced so much hostility?
Then in the middle of that, they got this bizarre message on their talk page by Jytdog saying it is a conflict of interest to write about the place where you live.
USER “NORTH AMERICA” WARNS “CLARAWOOD123
If that wasn’t bizarre enough, they also get a warning on their talk page about their user name from another busybody wikipedian, complaining that their name implies they represent the Clarawood estate - by an editor of the name “North America” of all things.
User talk:Clarawood123 - Wikipedia
Welcome to Wikipedia.
I noticed that your username, "Clarawood123", may not meet Wikipedia's username policy because Your username implies that you represent the Clarawood housing estate. See WP:CORPNAME for more information. Please seriously consider creating a new account using a neutral username.
If you believe that your username does not violate our policy, please leave a note here explaining why. As an alternative, you may ask for a change of username by completing this form, or you may simply create a new account for editing. Thank you . North America1000
… Clarawood123, you can safely ignore the above warning which I assume is based on a misunderstanding. The US (where I assume from their name Northamerica1000is from) has no tradition of centrally-planned housing and thus no real equivalent to estates, and NA1000 is probably assuming that this is a private development and you work for the developer. Northamerica1000, a British or Irish estate is for all practical purposes a government-planned village, usually complete with its own pubs, shops, churches etc (some of the larger ones like Becontree or Wythenshawe can be treated as full-blown cities in their own right); treat it as you would any other village. Estates are built by the government, not by private developers; unless you're insinuating that Clarawood123 works for the local authority, claiming a COI from the name would be like me banning you from North American articles owing to your username. ‑ Iridescent 08:24, 15 April 2016 (UTC)
(ping) @Iridescent: and Clarawood123: I struck my message above. I assumed it was a private development. Cheers, North America1000 22:55, 15 April 2016 (UTC)
Cheers Clarawood123 (talk) 08:13, 16 April 2016 (UTC)
This user later strikes out their comment, explaining that they made a mistake. But why not ask? It’s the same thing as with the ANI discussion. They just presume guilt on the basis of slender evidence and you then have to try to prove innocence.
BLOCKED AS A SOCK PUPPET
And then finally (you can read this on their talk page as well), Clarawood123 gets blocked as a sockpuppet!
What, I’m a sock puppet? Carlb-sockpuppet-02
I.e. the admins claim that they are not a genuine person, but rather, another experienced wikipedia user masquerading as a newbie Clarawood123 in order to harm wikipedia (a sockpuppet by definition is always someone doing something harmful, the idea is that they wear the other person’s identity much like the way someone might wear a sock as a puppet on a hand).
The result of this block is that they can’t contribute anywhere on wikipedia except their own talk page.
This is what Clarawood123 says when they find out that they have been blocked:
“User:Bbb23 has blocked me in connection with a sockpuppet investigation of me. I have just discovered this today. There is absolutely no way any investigation of this would have been able to prove any sockpuppetry as I am a genuine account and have no connection whatsoever to the disruptive editor or anyone else. I am not able to defend myself as I have been blocked. I would like to be unblocked immediately so that I can defend myself as I have, once again, been accused of multiple things I have not done.”
This appeal is declined
Decline reason:
Confirmed sockpuppet. And you are able to defend yourself just fine while blocked. You still have access to this page. You don't need to edit articles in order to defend yourself
I don't for a moment think they are a sock puppet. They are so obviously genuine and a newbie too, from the way they talked and reacted, from the nature of their first article, from the understandable but naive way they tried to go to ANI with a complaint and it boomeranged - everything they did shouts out newbie wikipedia editor. How anyone could conclude that they are a sockpuppet is beyond me.
Imagine facing all that as a newbie user with only 80 edits, attempting your first ever article in wikipedia.
Eventually they get unblocked with a warning
“As a result of an appeal to the Arbitration Committee. However, I strongly suggest that you get consensus for any possible controversial edits “
I would imagine they have probably thoroughly discouraged this newbie editor from taking part in wikipedia. They started trying to help wikipedia in February. That final unblocking happens in June. But naturally enough really, they haven’t contributed anything since then: User contributions for Clarawood123 - Wikipedia
I’ve seen many strange Alice through the Looking Glass conversations during my time of contributing to Wikipedia as an editor - but this one really takes the biscuit. Think how many people must get discouraged from editing wikipedia every year as a result of this absurd nonsense!
THEY ARE LIKE THE BORG
I’ve been the other side of something like this myself when I was banned from talking about the “four noble truths” on wikipedia. It’s relentless, and remorseless. Many editors who you have never met, who know nothing about the dispute, all echoing the same words, making the same false assumptions about you. Most don’t bother to read the original dispute and none of them have any time to listen to you. If you write two paragraphs of explanation you get told that it is too much for them to read. You only have minutes of their time to try to turn them away from their assumption of guilt to a proof that you are innocent. And they don’t even think about asking you questions outside of the dispute, say on your talk page, to get your own view on the situation.
I joke with my friends that it is a bit like encountering the Borg in Star Trek, who want to assimilate you. For most ordinary mortals, the only way to avoid being assimilated is to leave.
To do anything about it you need to be like Captain Janeway or Jean Luc Picard.
Jean Luc Picard as a Borg. One of the surprising twists of plot. The likes of Jean Luc Picard (fictional Star Trek captain) can do this and get away with it. I don’t recommend ordinary folk trying to fix the Borg like activity in wikipedia.
All this drama was for a newbie editor who has just started work on their first ever article in wikipedia. It’s obvious to anyone with an ounce of common sense that they never had any intent to disrupt and were doing their best in their small way to improve the encyclopedia.
Even if you come from the US and have this assumption about housing estates - there must be many people in the US too who live in housing estates built by private developers and want to write about them, who have no financial motive for the article. That the user has used the name of their housing estate as a user name is an extremely slender basis to proceed on a presumption of guilty, without even asking them.
CLARAWOOD - THE ARTICLE WHICH ALL THE FUSS WAS ABOUT
And having said all that, well I’ll also link to their original version of the article they wrote. It’s still there in the article history. And I think it’s a nice article myself :).
Clarawood (old version as written by Clarawood123)
I can see how some of it could be said to go against the wikipedia guidelines on “original research” which in my opinion are taken way too seriously there. You can’t say that there is an ancient oak tree growing in your village green or that it has a duck pond, unless you can find a newspaper story or similar remarking on it… I can understand the reason for those guidelines but I think even at the best of times they are somewhat over enforced
Anyway the original is much better than the latest version. And I get a bit of pleasure from sharing their original here after everything that happened to them.
Clarawood Park entrance. The editor who took this photograph and wrote the article has now been banned from wikipedia as a “sockpuppet”, a ridiculous allegation, after stirring up a hornets nest because they had the misfortune to cross paths with Jytdog.
And here is their article about it again :). Clarawood
So anyway apparently this is just one of many episodes involving Jytdog. Though you can’t criticize them on wikipedia, not very easily anyway - you are liable to be banned for the attempt as they tend to have many friends there, they are much discussed off wiki. Here is a great long discussion here about how disruptive Jytdog is on wikipedia.
Wikipediocracy - View topic - Jytdog
“EXTREMELY UNWISE” TO ACCEPT AN OFFER OF SYMPATHY
For another really bizarre episode involving another disruptive editor, after Jytdog silenced me I found out from another editor off-wiki about another editor SageRad who suffers from Misphonia - they say themselves on wikipedia, and had been working on an article about the condition. I’m not sure what it is but something to do with being adversely affected by sounds.
They’d been disciplined on Jytdog’s instigation - and told to go away for very similar reasons to me Wikipedia:Arbitration/Requests/Enforcement - Wikipedia
"I'm honest, forthright, and speak what i see. In editing articles i've improved greatly since i began, and i think i understand the policies well. I edit according to policies. I speak honestly. I want good article -- nothing more. I want good articles that follow the best sources.
Other people have issues that i speak to problems in Wikipedia. Are you going to shoot me for speaking? If so then it's on your hands."
That is so like what I've encountered over and over.
I write Debunking Doomsday posts for people scared because of some youtube video or red top tabloid newspaper story that the world is about to end. Sometimes they say they are or were feeling suicidal so it is somewhat uppermost in my mind that people can be. So, when I saw that they used the word “Suicide” and “Dead” on the pages I wanted to contact them just in case they need emotional support, though I knew it was probably just a metaphor (as it was).
Anyway so I write this on their talk page (at the time they were in a period of “voluntarily” abstaining from wikipedia, though facing likely disciplinary action if they attempt to edit it even on their own talk page):
@SageRad: I've been in a very similar situation to you - in a different topic area in Medicine, the Morgellons article, with the same editor as you also. Didn't go as far as AE. As with you it was just for being honest and forthright on the talk page. I've had previous experiences like this and when they threatened AE I knew to stop, there is nothing more you can do at that point. I know from my own experience how scary and stressful it can be. You say to yourself "it's just wikipedia" but at that point you've got quite involved in it, got to really care about the quality of wikipedia articles, and it can be very distressing indeed to be threatened to be banned when all you are doing is trying to help here.
I'd just like to offer my sympathy especially as you talk about preferring to commit suicide - I hope that is just a metaphor and you didn't actually do it - saw that your user page says DEAD at the top, again I hope it is just a metaphor. Do contact me via email if you want support / sympathy / comparing experiences. You can message me via the messaging link on my user page or else you can email me at support@robertinventor.com - I'm a software developer and that's a public email address, so no problem sharing it here. Robert Walker (talk) 06:08, 3 November 2016 (UTC)
Another editor who was opposed to me in the Morgellons discussion immediately jumps in saying
“Sage, it would be extremely unwise to take up this offer. Robert is promoting a fake disease, and if you go down that route you will be aligning yourself with the pseudoscientists and woo-mongers, and that will get you a full site ban much more quickly than what you're doing now. “
So now you can’t even offer sympathy there! I’ve come across that before though and wasn’t hugely surprised. Once you have other editors who think you are a problem - in this case because I had a different view on the Morgellons article - they then put your contributions to wikipedia on their watch list so that they know whenever you post on any other editor’s talk page and will jump in on the conversation if they think you are doing anything that might get some sympathy from them for your dispute.
What he or she says there is way off the mark however I wasn’t recruiting them at all. What would SageRad be expected to know about Morgellons or indeed me about Misphonia? Both are extremely rare conditions that few know much about.
For more about it see this comment on the whole episode on Reddit: Admin "warns" editor who mentioned suicide not to accept offer to talk it out
MUCH OF THIS MAY LOOK FINE IF YOU ARE AN ADMIN IN WIKIPEDIA
Incidentally, to write what I’ve said here, anywhere on wikipedia, including on my own talk page there, would surely get me banned instantly. The discussion wouldn’t last long at all, I’d probably get a site ban and not be able to edit it at all, for a year or indefinitely.
For that reason, the admins there just don’t get to see much of the complaints about what is going on unless they explore forums outside of wikipedia. They just see problem editors who they ban, and that solves the problem as far as they are concerned. The editors that remain know that they can’t say things like this there.
You might wonder how all this is possible under freedom of speech. However, wikipedia have this as a right, which is explained here: Wikipedia:Free speech - Wikipedia
“In short, editing Wikipedia is a privilege granted to you by the permission of the Wikimedia Foundation, and can be revoked at any time for whatever reason that organization sees fit to do so. Your only legal rights on Wikipedia are your right to fork (create another encyclopaedia independent of the Wikimedia Foundation) and your right to leave (stop editing).
“This being said, we're not trying to be jerks. Nor do we plan on being jerks. We do hope that you stay, and help us to build a better Wikipedia. There's lots of work to be done, and everyone who's willing to contribute constructively is needed. Including you.”
It’s not really that different from e.g. the right of someone who has a blog to delete troll posts in the comment threads. It’s an understandable right. I wouldn’t dispute it, they obviously need it for vandals and trolls.
I think that wikipedia would benefit from having some way that people can raise sincere criticisms there of other editors and of the processes themselves without risking being topic or site banned as a result. I don’t know how that could happen though.
However, of course that right only extends to wikipedia. The editors there can’t take any action against us for writing about them off wiki. There we are protected by freedom of speech. The power of these complaint boards only extends over the domain of wikipedia itself.
UNBLOCKABLE EDITORS - RECOGNIZED AS AN ISSUE BY ADMINS AS WELL
There are some editors on wikipedia who seem to have an endless supply of “Get out of Jail Free” cards. Inexperienced admins will find they can’t do anything about the unblockables because at some point, they rose to their bait and defended themselves against their personal attacks. If they do that, it makes them an involved admin who can never discipline them ever in the future.
More experienced admins still face the risk of losing their admin status unless super cautious in all their dealings with them. For details, see this post by a wikipedia admin, User Beeblebrox, about unblockable editors, and about how this phenomenon comes to happen and why an admin can’t do anything about it.
This means, they can say the most outrageous things to you or about you and won’t be disciplined at all, or if they do, their block or ban is instantly overturned. But you try to show that they have lied or said something wrong to you, and before you know it, you’ll find yourself topic banned or maybe blocked from editing wikipedia or even totally site banned. The more you try to extricate yourself from this mess, the worse your sanctions get.
For one recent particularly Kafka-esh case involving unblockables, see SageRad’s case. He has just been blocked for one year for alleged “battleground behaviour” by the unblockables Jytdog and JzG. Do read his section of the discussion and his talk page. Also these are a couple of comments that were removed from the discussion before the case was closed, which give another perspective Changes - Wikipedia.
You can edit for years and never meet them. Or if unlucky, meet them on your first article as happened to the unfortunate Clarawood123. Sadly, the way wikipedia works at present, then these people are somewhat encouraged (not intentionally).
If you have tangled with an unblockable, they continually try to bait you - don’t take the bait. Let them have the last word when they try to bait you. Unless you really know what you are doing, best not to call them out on things, don’t say they lied even though both you and they know they did. You can try just calmly saying the truth, without saying anything about whether they lied, leave the reader to make that inference. Or better, at least safer, just go away, take a wiki break, or edit another part of wikipedia. You may also be interested in POV railroad which is about some of the tactics they and other editors use that are hard to counter, and when done by an “unblockable” pretty much unstoppable.
And if you do get blocked anyway - well you are in excellent company :). You could be a professor and the best expert in the world on your topic, widely known for your depth of knowledge and understanding of your field, it would make no difference. Please don’t take it as any kind of a reflection on you as a person.
WATCH OUT FOR MAD HATTERS AND CHESHIRE CATS
So - generally if you are in any of the more controversial areas, you may find that it’s hard to make friends on wikipedia and you may encounter a lot of hostility, and some (of course not all) of the most prolific editors there are characters that wouldn’t be out of place in a book by Lewis Carroll - Mad Hatters, Red Queens, Mock Turtles, Cheshire Cats vanishing leaving only a smile behind. If you’ve ever been involved in this stuff you’ve probably met the equivalents of all those characters and more.
Cheshire Cat vanishing (detail) - original illustration by Tenniel.
It’s so much nicer writing here on quora than on wikipedia.
IS THERE A WAY FORWARD FOR WIKIPEDIA?
I hope somehow someone finds a way towards doing something about this. I don’t know what the solution is though, as it is quite entrenched there, this attitude. I’ve come across it many times now in my own experience too. In many different topic areas - Life on Mars, Manned Missions to Mars, Morgellons, Four Noble Truths, a wide variety of editors, with so little overlap that it can't be a minority approach but is surely pervasive within wikipedia.
Perhaps if they had to use real names, it would help - that seems to help in other places. But you can understand why someone would sometimes need to edit it with a pseudonym.
Maybe it is something to do with the user interface? It’s awkward to edit, by modern standards - with users having to post in wikicode, scroll down through pages of comments to find out where to add your post at the end, and they don’t have auto collapse of long comments which is partly why you get so much hostility if you write anything of any length there. And users don’t have icons either - it’s a small thing but helps with friendliness I think.
Perhaps if they had a decent system of justice there - maybe set up with advice from someone with judiciary experience? Perhaps if they had experts who were respected in the topic areas - but that then would conflict with the community nature of the project rather easily.
The Jury (1861) painting by John Morgan- wikipedia appeal boards are like a legal system with a jury but no judge, no defendant, and on the basis of sentencing first, with the jury often meting out sentences there swiftly within minutes of filing the case, before the person accused has had a chance to reply to the accusations. Perhaps it would benefit from an overhaul and attention by people with a background in jurisprudence. Maybe it could even do with a full time paid member with jurisprucence experience.
But for that to happen, the volunteers who man wikipedia would need to agree that it needs overhaul. The admins there don’t even see that it is a problem. They don’t see all the posts and complaints by banned users because this happens off wiki. If I wrote this article on wikipedia I’d get site or topic banned swiftly.
I think this is one of the main issues holding wikipedia back at present myself.
Maybe they will find a way through this some day. I do think this is probably the main thing that is holding wikipedia back and limiting it now. Not vandals - that’s pretty much sorted out now. Not a shortage of people who want to help. But just this Alice through the Looking Glass attitude of some of the most prolific editors there, turns people off, and results in biased and inaccurate articles on many topics. It’s self perpetuating also - attracts people with the same attitudes to wikipedia, and turns other people away - or good editors may find that every edit they make is reverted until they give up.
MANY AREAS ARE EXCELLENT
Please don’t go away with the idea that all the articles or even most are like this. Wikipedia has so much promise and many areas of it are excellent. When it works well it can work very well indeed. I use it nearly every day - though I know to check the cites for anything important. I also edit it a fair bit too, fix mistakes, occasionally write longer pieces. It’s ediitng guidelines are good to for the most part - I don’t have complaints about them either. But it is also so vulnerable to this sort of thing.
I don't think there is too much I can do within wikipedia to deal with this situation. But perhaps writing about it in a humorous way off wiki can help in some indirect way. If nothing else, it may help those who have been in a similar situation to me to take it a bit less seriously and realize they aren't the only one who face this. Perhaps it might also reach the attention of a few who are in some position to do something about it? I don’t know if anyone can, but drawing attention to the issue is a starting point, if there is any way to fix it.
WHAT YOU CAN DO ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW!
If you are a reasonably experienced wikipedian, you can do a lot to help by working as an uninvolved commentator and voter on OCCASIONAL cases in WP:ANI. and other boards that permit participation by general editors.
See: What you can do about the Alice through the Looking Glass world of Wikipedia Editing - Right Now
See also Ideas for wikipedia reform for the long term
See also my answer to Is Wikipedia biased?
HOW TO EDIT WIKIPEDIA WITHOUT GETTING INTO TROUBLE
If you want to work on wikipedia, and want to do major work there, e.g. fill in some big gap in their coverage (they do still have large gaps in many specialist areas) then it is best to start with a non controversial topic. And - it is good to get lots of colleagues or friends involved in editing along with you. So long as there is no dispute in progress yet, there is no problem doing that and it doesn’t count as canvasing.
And if you have an article with lots of editors then it is much less likely to be destroyed or dramatically rewritten than a long article by a single editor. For professors and experts same as for anyone else. Try to edit the article as a group of several of you rather than as a sole editor and you are much more likely to succeed.
If a dispute does break out, then that’s the time to slow down. When you feel you have to reply, that’s often a sign that it’s a good time to take a break. A few comments stated clearly and calmly - and then you say nothing more for a day or two, will have much more impact than a long dialog in which you answer every point. Other editors may join in and make the points you would have made. Or if not, after a long conversation with the other editors ,to come back in and make a few points in a calm fashion again will work much better than to try a ding dong answering everything they say.
For more on this see my How to edit wikipedia without getting into trouble
The chance it is just a coincidence, they make one in 15,000, or three sigma. That’s not quite enough for discovery, but it’s a point where you think there may be something in it.
If you had just th...
(more)The chance it is just a coincidence, they make one in 15,000, or three sigma. That’s not quite enough for discovery, but it’s a point where you think there may be something in it.
If you had just the one hypothesis ever, and got only a 1 in 15,000 chance that it doesn't exist, that's a near certainty. But if you have thousands of astronomers searching for things then from time to time some of them are bound to hit on a 1 in 15,000 chance just by chance. So you are bound to get a few results of similar probability to this from time to time.
Individually they seem very likely if you are the astronomer who came to this conclusion, when you take into account all the other astronomers looking and the number of hypotheses each one considers in a lifetime - it's not so impressive as it seems at first.
That's why they are not saying "We have proved it", but are being professionally cautious about it, although it may seem at first like a near certainty. You might think they should just say it exists, with, on the face of it, a 99.993% certainty that it exists, but that's not how it works in science.
In particle physics, where the experiments generate huge amounts of data, 3 sigma results are common and are often just clusters, patterns in the noise. Collect enough data and you are bound to see 3 sigma results from time to time even if the data is random. They aim for 5 sigma for discovery.
“Others, like planetary scientist Dave Jewitt, who discovered the Kuiper belt, are more cautious. The 0.007% chance that the clustering of the six objects is coincidental gives the planet claim a statistical significance of 3.8 sigma—beyond the 3-sigma threshold typically required to be taken seriously, but short of the 5 sigma that is sometimes used in fields like particle physics. That worries Jewitt, who has seen plenty of 3-sigma results disappear before. By reducing the dozen objects examined by Sheppard and Trujillo to six for their analysis, Batygin and Brown weakened their claim, he says. “I worry that the finding of a single new object that is not in the group would destroy the whole edifice,” says Jewitt, who is at UC Los Angeles. “It’s a game of sticks with only six sticks.””
from: Astronomers say a Neptune-sized planet lurks beyond Pluto
Still it's intriguing and they claim it's the most likely planet X to date.
The way to be more certain is to spot it in a telescope, and that’s what they are trying to do. They are searching for it with the Subaru telescope in Hawaii. Astronomers Are On A Celestial Treasure Hunt. The Prize? Planet Nine
See also my
Why This New "Planet X" Is No Threat To Earth :).
Would New Planet X Clear Its Orbit? - And Any Better Name Than "Planet Nine"?
The main thing is to keep an open mind. If you think that when you die that’s it, that closes your mind off to many possibilities. But if you are sure that when you die you are reborn in a particul...
(more)The main thing is to keep an open mind. If you think that when you die that’s it, that closes your mind off to many possibilities. But if you are sure that when you die you are reborn in a particular way following particular processes etc - well - it can be nice to feel such certainty but again it is closing your mind off. Maybe it’s true? Maybe it isn’t? Maybe it has an element of truth but is a simplification or some aspect of the truth or just one way of looking at things?
The way Buddha taught, he made the central part of his teaching thigns we can see for ourselves. We can see the truth of suffering and unsatisfactoriness. And there are other things we can come to see such as impermanence. Eventually non self also. Not as things to achieve, things to make happen, but as truths we can come to see about ourselves, teh world, our situation etc.
So it’s the same for rebirth too. Most Buddhists probably believe that when you die you are reborn in some other form. Some of those rebirths are into states that you might think of as like a kind of a heaven - realms of pure thought, blissful states, and even more refined states than that. But Buddha taught that they are all temporary, impermanent. That if they are the results of conditions , then they come ot an end. Even if you somehow enter some refined state that maybe doesn’t even need a body in physical form at all, a refined mental state lasting for trillions of years of happiness in its most refined form, or whatever it is, eventually it will come to an end.
So, the aim of achieving a good afterlife - most Buddhists think of that as a somewhat lesser aim. It is only a temporary solution, even if it lasts for trillions of years- well at some point in the future it ends and you are back where you started from.
The Buddhist teachings are unusual because Buddha taught that you can become enlightened in this very lifetime. It’s not an afterlife, it’s right now, right here. No need to go anywhere to find it. It’s just the truth, the way things are. A truth which sonehow we are obscuring by the way we complicate everything. On and on it goes, one complexity after another, and some truth that he said is easy to see if we could but see it. We miss it because it is so obvious and clear to view, a bit like not spotting the very largest print on a map.
So that’s how we think of it, important to keep an open mind about it, most think we do get reborn - but it’s not the central part of the teaching, really, important as it may seem sometimes in the way Buddhism is taught. Far more important ot have an open mind about what happens when you die. Some schools go into many very detailed teachings about rebirth and these mental states also that you could enter when you die - e.g. in Tibetan Buddhism. At the opposite extreme perhaps the Zen Buddhist teachings - even though they also have teachings on rebirth too - there is much less emphasis on it and far more attention given to the very core teachings of Buddhism and the direct realization, seeing a truth for yourself. A truth as plain to view as the truth of suffering and unsatisfactoriness, if we could but see it. The idea that there is such a truth to be seen is like a koan in itself. However this is a rather superficial distinction. All the main schools of Buddhism have that as their central teaching, just as the Zen schools do, a truth you have to see for yourself. That’s in the original sutras, the core teachings accepted by all the main sutra tradition schools..
Yes I agree. Up to around two years in space, you can use the same methods as used for the ISS, somewhat improved. That’s the aim of NASA in the near future. An international outpost near the Moon ...
(more)Yes I agree. Up to around two years in space, you can use the same methods as used for the ISS, somewhat improved. That’s the aim of NASA in the near future. An international outpost near the Moon gets closer to reality
But for missions of more than two years, then it starts to become very inefficient to use those same methods. We need to start using much better recycling, and the easiest is to use biological closed systems as you say.
I also agree on the importance of doing research into artificial gravity. Although the early experiments in space were promising - humans much less affected by spinning motions in zero g than they are on Earth (possibly because the ostoliths which experience gravity as a linear acceleration along the spin axis on Earth are not stimulated in space), and rats in a centrifuge far healthier than rats that are not centrifuged - there haven’t been any follow up experiments at all.
Yes it does, through exhaust fumes from visiting spacecraft. The Russians did an EVA summer 2015 to clean the windows.
Russian cosmonauts clean ISS' windows in a six-hour spacewalk
It hit the news be...
(more)Yes it does, through exhaust fumes from visiting spacecraft. The Russians did an EVA summer 2015 to clean the windows.
Russian cosmonauts clean ISS' windows in a six-hour spacewalk
It hit the news because the Russians said they had found microbes on the windows. Leading to the question, how did they get there? Microbial life found living on the exterior of the International Space and German Space Agency Chimes In on Alleged Discovery of Sea Plankton on ISS
I’m not sure what the latest is on that. Microbial life has been found high in the upper atmosphere of Earth. If it did somehow get to the height of the ISS and impacted on the windows, you’d expect it to be thoroughly sterilized by then by the unfiltered UV radiation from the sun and then the nearly 8 km / sec impact on the ISS (as that’s the speed with which it is traveling through the very very tenuous hard vacuum “atmosphere” at that height).
(Microbial life can survive in space in a dormant state, sheltered from UV light by other microbes in a biofilm, or in a minute crack or shadow on the surface of a spacecraft, or just beneath the surface of a meteorite. UV light is just a form of light and a thin layer of anything that casts a shadow will block it. However, if not protected like that, even the most hardy microbes., the ones with UV shielding pigments and ability to repair their own DNA after damage, can’t survive direct UV for more than a few hours if exposed to it directly without the filtering effect of our atmosphere).
So doesn’t seem too likely it’s alive if they did find evidence of life, most likely dead - it could also be contamination from Earth that somehow got onto the windows from visiting rockets say. If anyone reading this knows the latest on this, do say.
Yes, it is easy to penetrate the atmosphere quickly, and burn up like a meteor. The problem is to enter slowly. You can do that too, but it would take a HUGE amount of fuel with ordinary rockets. Y...
(more)Yes, it is easy to penetrate the atmosphere quickly, and burn up like a meteor. The problem is to enter slowly. You can do that too, but it would take a HUGE amount of fuel with ordinary rockets. You can do it with aerobraking, including a surprisingly slow re-entry with an orbital airship; and there are some other ideas that may be possible in the not too distant future, such as a space elevator, or spinning “skyhooks”.
To see why it is so difficult with ordinary rockets, here is a quick refresher on orbits. If you could throw a ball from above our atmosphere, gravity still pulls it down in the same way as on Earth, If you throw it fast enough, what happens is that it gets beyond the horizon before it can hit the Earth, and Earth’s gravity continues to pull it around into a curve until it gets back to its starting point. That’s how satellites such as the ISS stay in orbit, and that’s why it is often called free-fall.
To skim the Earth’s atmosphere in orbit, your spacecraft has to travel at least as fast as 7.8 km / second, or about 17,500 mph. The Earth itself, with its atmosphere, is spinning eastward below you, at around 1,000 mph. So, you can reduce your re-entry speed by orbiting in the same direction that the Earth spins. However that only helps a bit. Your spacecraft still has to travel at 16,500 mph relative to our atmosphere to stay in orbit.
If you slow down by a tiny amount below that speed, even by just a few hundred miles per hour, as you skim the atmosphere, you will fall too far towards Earth before you complete your orbit. You will hit the atmosphere at thousands of miles per hour, and will re-enter in a fiery descent. At that point you depend on your aeroshell to protect you from the heat.
Example: On December 11, 2015, the Soyuz TMA 17M mission started from a low Earth orbit at an altitude of 416.7 km, and re-entered with a change in speed of 128 meters per second or 286 miles per hour.
But couldn’t you just hover above the atmosphere much in the same way that the lunar module pilots hovered above the Moon’s surface? You may remember that the Apollo 11 landing module nearly ran out of fuel as they were landing, because the computer was taking them to the steep slopes of a crater with rocks the size of automobiles. Here is Neil Armstrong narrating his landing:
As he says there, he took over manually and “flew it like a helicopter” on out to the West to find a good site. That’s something you can do using rocket thrust in the weak lunar gravity. To do a hover like that against full Earth gravity would take a lot of fuel. So much so that when fully fueled to land, your spaceship would need to be nearly as large as those rockets you see in televised launches that take our spacecraft into orbit. Huge!
If you could use fuel with a high power density, such as antimatter, which lets you convert matter directly into energy, or perhaps fuel for nuclear fusion, it would be easy. Your spaceship just needs to thrust continually at 1 g away from Earth to maintain position as it slows down, and then it can lower itself down to the surface, as slowly or as quickly as your pilot wishes.
But we don’t have such fuels yet. So is there any other way to do it?
SPACE ELEVATOR
We could lower a spacecraft slowly through our atmosphere with a space elevator. This is basically a giant lift, with the top a long way above our atmosphere, extending beyond geostationary orbit, and usually reaching to the ground at the equator. It is held in place, and tensioned, by a counterweight above geostationary orbit. This video gives an idea of how it works - and it also gives a refresher on orbits at the beginning.
If we had that, your spaceship could dock at geostationary orbit, which is easy to do, so long as you make sure that you orbit the earth in the same direction that it spins, once every 24 hours. That way your orbit keeps you stationary above the same point on Earth all the time, and so stationary relative to the top of the elevator. So then you can just dock slowly much as they do for the ISS.
Once you’ve done that, then you would get out of your spacecraft, or attach your spacecraft to a lift, and just slowly travel down the elevator at, say, 200 mph, or whatever speed you find comfortable and safe, until you reach the Earth’s surface. You’d feel gravity gradually increase from zero g to full g as you descend.
Arthur C. Clarke’s science fiction story The Fountains of Paradise is based around this idea.
The space elevator is a mega engineering project, with many issues to sort out before it can be built. However, as well as that, at the moment there is one issue that is a deal breaker for it. It requires cables able to hold up their own weight for distances of thousands of kilometers. Present day materials such as Kevlar and the somewhat stronger Zylon can only hold up a few hundred kilometers. Carbon nanotubes made in a laboratory are strong enough for a space elevator, but when they are made into larger cables in practice they are weaker than Kevlar because of flaws. It would be possible to build a space elevator on the Moon with its weaker gravity, using Kevlar or Zylon, but not on the Earth. More on this later, but meanwhile let’s look at other ideas.
COULD WE BUILD THE SPACE ELEVATOR FROM BELOW?
You might perhaps wonder, what about building it from below? The earliest idea for a space elevator is from Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, one of the founding fathers of the theory of rocketry, and his idea was inspired by the Eiffel tower. But it turns out that none of our materials have anything like the compressive strength needed to hold up a thousands of kilometers tall tower from below. It would just collapse under its own weight.
So then, what about building it just to the top of the atmosphere? Might that be useful?
Well first, how high could a building be? Well at least as high as a mountain, if you have enough materials for it. The tallest mountain as measured from its base is Mauna Kea in Hawaii which rises 10.205 kilometers above the sea floor.
This paper works out the theoretical maximum height of a mountain,not taking into account any geological considerations such as how it could get to be so high or the depth of the crust supporting it. As an example at the end, they work out that a mountain made of granite with a base of around 1,000 km could be as much as 45 km high. But they say it could be much higher if the mountain gets rapidly steeper, as it gets higher, like the Eiffel tower.
The highest hyperbuilding structure to be designed by an architect is the X-Seed 4000 for Japan, which uses an Eiffel tower like construction, and would reach a height of 4 km with a 6 km diameter base, making it 224 meters higher than the similarly shaped Mount Fuji. It was designed by Peter Neville for the Taisei Corporation. The idea was to build it in Tokyo bay.
More images here (page is in Arabic)
Mount Fuji is similar in shape and 224 meters lower
William Baker who worked on the designs for Burj Kalifa, the tallest building in the world, says that the same buttressed core approach could be used to make much taller buildings, quoted in this article in Business Insider: “Someday We Could Build A Skyscraper Taller Than Mount Everest”. He suggests that if made of light enough materials and with a wide enough base, buildings could be built to be higher than mountains and reach heights of tens of kilometers.
Space engineer Ben Quine from Ottawa in Canada has devised an idea for a twelve miles high building, using inflated Kevlar tubes.
The patent itself is short on details however, just covering a method for attaching an elevator car to such a tower. Can you prevent a cascading collapse of the whole thing downwards? How does it respond to wind stress? What about icing? Would it help much anyway to launch from above the thickest part of the atmosphere? See: This insane 12-mile-tall 'space elevator' concept is driving engineers crazy
Perhaps a tower as high as tens of kilometers high might be feasible, and if so, may be useful for launching to orbit. But it’s not nearly high enough to help much with the landing. It’s still stationary relative to the Earth’s surface. That’s okay for a tower that goes up to geostationary orbit, but not much use if it doesn’t even reach LEO. How can you dock with the top of a building when you are traveling at a relative speed of 16,500 mph?
You have the same problem that you’d need huge amounts of fuel to land on it with a conventional rocket. So let’s look at that in a bit more detail now.
TRADITIONAL ROCKET
You could use a large rocket refueled from orbit of course, to slowly lower your spacecraft through the atmosphere. This would require a lot of fuel though because of the Earth’s gravity.
It’s easy to carry enough fuel to land on the Moon, in a slow controlled de-orbit. The lunar module descent stage had a total mass of 15.2 tons, and of that, 8.355 tons was propellant (these figures varied depending on the mission). So around 45% was payload, including as the payload there, the lander itself, the ascent stage, its fuel, and the crew, as well as the lunar rover and any equipment to be left on the surface.
Apollo 11 lunar module. The fuel for the landing was only 55% of its total mass.
The ascent stage was even more efficient with less that 50% of its mass consisting of fuel.
The ascent stage for Apollo 9’s “Spider” lunar module, seen from below, showing the ascent nozzle. This was a test in LEO as you can see from the Earth behind in the photo.
The lunar module’s ascent stage had a total mass of 4.76 tons. Of that, the crew was 144 kg and the propellant was 2.375 tons. The fuel amounted to less than 50% of its total mass. Of the original 15.2 tons of the fully loaded and fueled lunar module, 2.405 tons did the round trip all the way back to orbit. That’s about 15.8%. (Some of the payload of course was left on the surface such as the lunar rover in later missions, and the experiments).
If Earth had as little gravity as the Moon it would be easy to get into orbit and back again and we wouldn’t need to use the atmosphere at all. However, though the gravity is only six times greater on Earth, we need far more than six times the amount of fuel because of the way rockets work. For every few tons of fuel at the end of the journey, you may many extra tons early on, which is just fuel to accelerate fuel.
By way of example only 4% of the Saturn V rocket used to launch the Apollo missions was payload, so 96% of the launch mass is either burnt or discarded on the way to orbit. For the Ariane 5 (European heavy lift rocket), the payload fraction is 2.5%, and it’s similar (slightly less) for the Soyuz 2 used to launch the crewed Soyuz MS.
For the Space Shuttle, only 1% was payload because most of the mass put into orbit was the shuttle itself which was returned to Earth. For more on this, see The Tyranny of the Rocket Equation and for some more example figures, this Payload fraction table
If you don’t have an atmosphere for aerobraking, it takes about the same amount of fuel and hardware to get something into orbit as to de-orbit it. So for instance, since it takes 312 tons total mass to launch the new Soyuz MS with a crew of three into orbit, you’d need that much mass in orbit already to get them back. But each launch can only carry a payload of 7.08 tons. That makes it 44 launches before you have enough mass up there to return your crew of three safely without aerobraking.
You can improve those figures by using a heavy launch vehicle but it would still take eleven launches of the Delta IV Heavy, the highest capacity launch vehicle in production, with a payload of 28.79 tons. It would take six launches of SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy when it is ready, with a payload to LEO of 54.4 tons.
You could do it more easily with the Saturn V. This had a payload to orbit of 140 tons (after boosts in payload capacity for the last two missions). So three launches would be more than enough at least in terms of the total mass. It would also take three launches of the new Space Launch System when ready.
Back in the 1960s NASA studied even larger rockets, the NOVA series, with an eye to a mission to Mars. These never flew, but would have been able to send many hundreds of tons into LEO in a single flight.
Nova - studied from 1959 to 1962. Finally cancelled 1964. Figures show payload to LEO in metric tons. Image © Mark Wade
Later on they explored ideas for modifying the Saturn V for a Mars mission. The Saturn V-4X(U), designed but never built, could have sent 527.6 tons to a 486 km orbit at 28 degrees. That would be much more than enough to get the entire mass of a Soyuz 2 fully loaded with fuel + payload to LEO in a single launch.
So, that would be the situation, for someone living on a planet with Earth gravity and no atmosphere, or very little atmosphere. They could send robotic spacecraft into orbit early on. Returning their citizens safely from orbit would be tough, but not impossible, if they build something like the Saturn V or even more so, the Saturn V-4X(U). However it’s no wonder that we use our atmosphere to slow down our spaceships for re-entry.
One thing that could change all this, is if you don’t have to carry the fuel on board the spaceship. If it is beamed to the spaceship from elsewhere, say from Earth, then you don’t need to use fuel to carry more fuel, and then it becomes much more feasible to land by hovering in the atmosphere. Your spacecraft also becomes much less bulky because it doesn’t have to contain all the fuel.
FLYING TO ORBIT AND BACK ON A BEAM OF LIGHT
This is a neat idea, but so far has only been tried in small scale demos, raising models a hundred feet or so on laser beams
Who knows, it might become the standard way to get into space some time in the future, but it is a long way from achieving that potential right now. A related idea is a mixed system with laser or microwave supplying energy, to heat up propellant on the rocket itself, which requires much less fuel, as you don’t need to “burn” the propellant to supply energy to fire the rest of the propellant out of the rocket exha ust. See Laser Propulsion Could Beam Rockets into Space, and Jordin Kare's talks to the Space Show.
If you can send a spacecraft into orbit that way you can also return it from orbit the same way if you want to. However we don’t have any spacecraft yet that can do this.
USING THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE AS A BRAKE - SPACE SHUTTLE
This is the way it is done today, to use the upper atmosphere as a brake, then slowly parachute to the surface or glide down in the lower atmosphere. How easy that is to do depends on the spacecraft.
If it is a heavy one like the Space Shuttle (now retired of course) then it can only slow down deep in the upper atmosphere, where it is dense. So it gets very hot. That’s why the Space Shuttle had to have ceramic tiles able to withstand temperatures up to 3,000 °F (1,650 °C)
Space Shuttle Enterprise banking on its second approach and landing test, during early flight tests.
NASA artwork for Space Shuttle re-entry - it’s high density, so can only slow down deep in the upper atmosphere, and gets very hot during that stage of its flight
LOWER TEMPERATURE REENTRY - SKYLON
Skylon is a plane being developed by the British company Reaction Engines with funding from the UK government and ESA. It will be able to fly to orbit from a conventional runway (though reinforced to carry the extra weight of all the fuel), return back to Earth, and then take off again within a couple of days with a crew of 200 to assist.
Its design is much lower in density than the space shuttle, once it has used up its fuel to get into orbit. So it slows down in the atmosphere at higher altitudes on the way down.
What really matters is the mass per cross sectional area it presents to the atmosphere or more exactly, its ballistic coefficient. Skylon could slow down even higher in the atmosphere if it presented a large blunt face like an aeroshell, but it has to be streamlined for the other stages of its flight. However it is also able to compensate for that to some extent by steering during the early part of the flight to slow down more quickly.
Skylon (future design being developed by UK / ESA). It flies to orbit from a normal length runway, reinforced to take the weight of fuel on lift off and may fly in the 2020s. It is heavy when it takes off, but during the landing, having used up most of its fuel, it is low density and so slows down much higher in the atmosphere than the Space Shuttle
As a result, it will reach lower temperatures than the Space Shuttle on re-entry though higher than a supersonic jet at Mach 3. Here are a few figures for skin temperatures for comparison, hottest first. These are the figures for the hottest parts of the spacecraft or plane:
SKYLON’S ZEPPELIN-LIKE TRUSS CONSTRUCTION, WITH A REINFORCED GLASS CERAMIC AEROSHELL
Modern planes have “stressed skin” structures, where the skin of the plane itself takes up all, or most of the external load from the wings, tail, other stabilizing structures and heavy components such as the engine (See fuselage for details). But the Skylon uses a structure much more like a zeppelin or a small plane. It’s girder-like with a thin glass ceramic outermost shell, which is just a heat resistant covering and doesn’t take any stress at all.
Structure of the Skylon - internal truss framework made from carbon fibre reinforced plastic composite held together with Kevlar ties. It has aluminium propellant tanks suspended inside it. Covering that, it has a thin outer aeroshell of a high temperature silicon carbide fibre reinforced glass ceramic material. For details see page 2 of this report
This ceramic outer skin is black, which is why Skylon is shown that colour in most of the artist renderings. This is an animation to show the concept for a mission to orbit, and back, by Reaction Engines who developed the idea. Re-entry starts about seven minutes into the video
VERY LOW TEMPERATURE RE-ENTRY - ORBITAL AIRSHIPS
This approach of reducing the density of the spacecraft to lower its re-entry temperature is taken much further with the plans of JP Aerospace.
Their kilometer scale orbital airship is filled mainly with hydrogen. It’s not only lower density than a plane, and the Skylon; it’s also much lower density even than a normal airship. It only operates above 140,000 feet and is balanced for the upper atmosphere. It also has a huge cross section which it presents to the atmosphere.
This spaceship design consists of a near vacuum of hydrogen floating in a near vacuum of normal air. If they succeed in building it, then it will be able to slow down just through friction in the very tenuous upper atmosphere. By the time it gets to levels dense enough to heat the skin significantly it’s already slowed down hugely, so the temperature of the skin during re-entry is much less of a problem.
JP Aerospace orbital airship - kilometer scale, very very low density - this has the least temperature of all during re-entry, If it works out, the cost per kilogram to get cargo and passengers to orbit would be far less even than the space elevator ($500 per kilogram to GEO for the space elevator, and JP Aerospace’s estimate for orbital airships is $310 per ton to GEO, so 31 cents per kilogram), and it has much less development cost. It would be a leisurely journey as you would get there slowly over several days.
Although it may not look it, its huge V shape is designed to be aerodynamic at hypersonic speeds in the near vacuum upper atmosphere. They have done modeling, calculations and wind tunnel tests with scale models to test this.
So on the way up it gradually accelerates to supersonic speeds, then to hypersonic speeds (by which time it is already in a near vacuum). It has solar panels over its vast upper surface to generate power, and uses these to power ion thrusters. These let you accelerate with a very high exhaust velocity, and so, with a small total amount of fuel, so long as you have plenty of power. It would have no shortage of power with such a large area of solar panels.
ORBITAL AIRSHIP CONSTRUCTION
It has no internal girders. Its outer shell covers an interior of many large bags of hydrogen to give it rigidity and to stop the gas bunching up at its nose. It also has inflatable trusses, with nitrogen filling the gaps in between these components. The nitrogen is vented if necessary and then replaced from liquid nitrogen tanks.
It is balanced to float at 200,000 feet altitude in the atmosphere. But since it is aerodynamic, it also behaves like a glider on the way down. It doesn't look much like a glider to our eyes perhaps, but that big voluminous V shape makes a great glider in the very tenuous upper atmosphere during re-entry.
So what keeps it up is partly aerodynamic lift and partly buoyancy. To start with it’s mainly aerodynamic, as it slows down on its long glide through the upper atmosphere. The aerodynamic effects keep it higher in the atmosphere for longer, and so keep it cooler on the way down. As it slows down to a halt in the atmosphere, it’s finally kept up by buoyancy.
Many details of the design are given in their Floating to Space: The Airship to Orbit Program. They don’t actually give expected skin temperatures. But the design uses nylon rip-stop polyethylene (page 111) which suggests that they expect external skin temperatures well below 100 °C (212 °F) for continuous use.
(Most commercial grade Polyethylene starts to soften at 60 °C (140 °F) and has a maximum continuous use temperature of 65 °C (149 °F), High Temperature Polyethylene can retain its properties up to 100 °C (212 °F) )
On page 109 they say
"By losing velocity before it reaches the lower thicker atmosphere, the reentry temperatures are radically lower.... This makes reentry as safe as the climb to orbit"
It’s an interesting company - in Sacramento, California, JP Aerospace, America's OTHER Space Program. Their idea is that they don’t do any big expensive “succeed or go bankrupt” type tests like SpaceX did in their early years. Instead every stage along the way pays for itself. At present they pay for the tests through pongsats and other ways to lift material to the edge of space. Their tests involve high altitude balloons, and V shaped airships rated for the lower atmosphere. They have also tested a high altitude balloon based airship design.
JP Aerospace hold the altitude record for an airship, propeller driven, remotely controlled from the ground, and flying at a height of 95,000 feet above sea level.
Later on they plan a “dark sky” station at the edge of space which will be of a lot of interest for itself both scientifically and for tourists. It gets the name because at that height the sky will be dark even in daytime, as for the Moon. Next, they plan small airships doing test hypersonic glides back to Earth. Finally they do test flights to orbit with smaller airships, then the first human pilots to orbit, and then huge orbital airships with passengers and cargo.
The idea started off as a US Airforce contract for a near space reconnaissance airship. But the US canceled the contract in 2004 or 2005 after first persuading them to attempt to launch one of their prototypes for a lower atmosphere airship in a 50 mph wind (which would count as a “strong gale”). It was only rated as sturdy enough for launch in a 2 mph wind at the time (an airship is particularly vulnerable in the short time it takes to launch it from the ground). They did this with some reluctance - and it blew apart in the strong winds, causing some minor injuries. The inventor himself sustained three broken ribs. That was enough for the US Airforce to cancel the contract.
JP Aerospace have now solved the problem and can launch their lower atmosphere V shaped airships in any wind conditions. You can read their account of this story here. It’s now a civilian company entirely self financed, and they are not interested in any more such contracts, naturally enough.
It’s probably going to take them a fair while, with this approach, maybe decades but it’s interesting: “watch this spot”.
You might wonder what happens if the airship is hit by a meteorite or orbital debris. From page 112 of the book:
"One of the most common questions asked about ATO is about meteorites. "What happens if a meteor popped the airship?" The answer is very little would happen. A balloon pops because the inside is at a higher pressure than the air on the outside. The inner cells of the airship are "zero pressure balloons". ... There is no difference in pressure to create a bursting force. All a meteorite would do is to make a hole. The gas would leak out staggeringly slowly... "
To find out more about this see their book Floating to Space: The Airship to Orbit Program
The JP Aerospace orbital airships are so lightweight they could never survive at ground level. The slightest wind would tear them apart. So in their plan, they have conventional airships that take passengers up to a docking station in the upper atmosphere, the “Dark Sky Station”, where they then transfer to the orbital airships.
This idea has been much criticized by physicists and they themselves say they don’t know if it is possible, but that it is interesting trying for what they learn along the way whether it’s possible or not.
For more on this, see my Can giant airships accelerate to orbit?
ATMOSPHERIC RE-ENTRY FOR VENUS AND TITAN
There are several other places in our solar system with thick atmospheres like Earth, including Venus, and Saturn’s moon Titan. Mars also has a very thin atmosphere. The gas giants have thick atmospheres too (with no solid surface).
JP Aerospace hope the same idea can be used for Venus, with a high altitude staging post again, this time of course in the Venus atmosphere. The aim wouldn’t be to land on the surface, which is incredibly hot and high pressure, but to go down to the Venusian cloud tops to study them and perhaps build habitats there.
Perhaps they could use it for Mars too. The atmosphere of Mars is so thin that you could land an orbital airship like this on the surface. The strongest winds on Mars would only barely move an autumn leaf, fast though they are.
VAMP ORBITAL AIRSHIP RE-ENTRY - FOR VENUS AND TITAN, ALSO EARTH
If you want to fly all the way down to ground level on Earth in one go, then you need a more massive airship. Northrop group’s “VAMP” project to study the Venus atmosphere uses an airship design like JP Aerospace, and they would inflate it outside of the atmosphere, so again that’s very like the JP Aerospace idea. It enters the Venus atmosphere already inflated, and because it is so large (55 meters in diameter) and low density, it doesn’t need an aeroshell.
However, unlike the JP Aerospace design, it’s able to fly in an Earth pressure atmosphere, so it’s not nearly as low density as an orbital airship. It still gets quite hot during the descent.
It inflates before it enters the atmosphere (see patent for details), and rather similarly to the JP Aerospace idea it decelerates slowly in the upper atmosphere, so generating much less heat, because of its low ballistic coefficient. So it doesn’t need an aeroshell, though because its designed to operate right down to the equivalent of ground level on Earth, its denser and its outer envelope is reinforced to withstand up to 1,200 °C (2,192 °F) along leading edges
They hope it can be used for Venus, and also Titan, and possibly Mars.
It would only descend as far as the Venus upper atmosphere, at the cloud tops, where temperatures and pressures are the same as for Earth. The cloud tops also have natural protection from cosmic radiation, and nearly all the ingredients for life. Indeed there are suggestions that it could be a good place for humans to settle outside of Earth. See my Will We Build Colonies That Float Over Venus Like Buckminster Fuller's "Cloud Nine?". Some astrobiologists think there may be life in the upper Venus atmosphere, already, which could have migrated there long ago when Venus was more habitable. The Russians are interested to search for this life, and may include an unmanned aerial vehicle, possibly VAMP in their Venera D mission to Venus in the mid 2020s.
The first tests of VAMP would use the Earth’s atmosphere. So it could also be used for Earth re-entry. It might be useful for surveillance, photographing the Earth from above, and also for scientific studies of the upper atmosphere.
The same ideas could also be used for Titan - a moon of Jupiter with an extremely cold atmosphere at -180 °C, but it’s also dense, with the same pressure as Earth’s. This means that humans could go out of doors there, without needing a pressurized spacesuit. Of course they would need protection from the extreme cold and they would need air to breathe, so you are talking about warm clothing, as for Antarctica, perhaps heated clothes, and an oxygen mask.
However, they could get the oxygen to breathe by splitting water ice from Titan, and then burn the methane from Titan in that oxygen, a process that, rather neatly, creates an excess of energy which could then split more water, generating more oxygen for heat, and also for the colonists to breathe. The habitats could be built like many modern Antarctic bases, on legs to hold them above the cold surface. Since the air pressure is the same inside and out, the air could be kept in using double doors in a building of normal construction, again like an Antarctic base. See Let's Colonize Titan, and there are more details in their Beyond Earth: Our Path to a New Home in the Planets.
VAMP flying over Titan to sample and explore the upper atmosphere - Titan’s atmosphere is similar in pressure to Earth’s at ground level, though much colder, so you have similar methods for re-entry for Titan and for Earth. Though its gravity is much less - indeed a human falling from a plane or aerostat on Titan would easily survive the landing without a parachute.
So, let’s now look at the way re-entry is done at present, using aeroshells. Can this be improved on?
AEROSHELL - HIGH TEMPERATURES
The normal way to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere at present is to use an aeroshell. This absorbs most of the heat, all the way through the early stages of re-entry, until the spacecraft is traveling slowly enough to drop the aeroshell and deploy parachutes. The spacecraft hits the atmosphere at many kilometers per second, so there is a lot of heat to dissipate. The main methods they use to keep the temperatures within reasonable bounds are:
So external temperatures depend on how effective these systems are, but they still reach 2,000 °C upwards (well over 3,500 °F). They reached rather higher temperatures for the Apollo return from the Moon, as their re-entry was at a higher velocity.
Artist’s rendering for Apollo command module re-entry. Temperatures reached 5,000 °F on the outside of the capsule, or around 2,760 °C. How the Apollo Spacecraft Worked (and old Apollo Flight Tests fact sheet )
Re-entry speeds are
Some materials can withstand even higher temperatures easily, for instance Hafnium diboride melts at 3,250 °C (5,882 °F). It is useful, as it is also good at conducting heat and electricity. It’s a grey metallic looking material, currently used for ICBM re-entry shields and leading edges. For more about it see Hafnium DiBoride (HfB₂). Titanium and zirconium diboride have similar properties.
WHY IS RE-ENTRY SO MUCH FASTER FROM A HIGHER ORBIT SUCH AS THE MOON?
You might wonder why the astronauts returned from the Moon at such a high speed. After all, it orbits the Earth at a speed of only 1.02 km / sec relative to Earth.
The reason is that if you start higher in the Earth’s gravitational well, and drop down to LEO, you accelerate all the way, and actually end up faster than if you started off in LEO originally. If you come back in a transfer from the Moon you hit the atmosphere at 11.1 km / second. There’s an online transfer orbit calculator here. Starting from a higher orbit just makes things worse for you.
The one thing you can do to help with re-entry speed is to orbit the Earth in the same direction that it spins. The Earth’s surface (and so its atmosphere too) moves at 460 meters per second towards the East, or about 1,000 miles per hour) because of its rotation (it’s spinning towards the rising sun).
So if your satellite is orbiting in the same direction as the Earth in an equatorial orbit, West to East, it has 0.92 km / sec less delta v relative to the atmosphere than if it orbits in the opposite direction. This makes re-entry just a little easier.
An orbit in this direction also makes the launch easier. You need around 0.92 km / sec less delta v to get into orbit if you launch from West to East. That’s quite a huge saving in fuel, which is why all the US launches are from Florida, launching over the Atlantic, and why all the Soyuz launches from Russia are from West to East too
Shows the direction of the launches of Soyuz from West to East
This is why it was such a major gaff for the Gravity film when it showed all the orbital debris orbiting Earth from East to West, as Neil deGrasse Tyson tweeted.
BALLUTE - INFLATABLE AEROSHELL
But you can achieve a much gentler re-entry using a ballute - a cross between a balloon and a parachute. It works like an aeroshell but decelerates much higher in the atmosphere
In the first ever re-entry test of a ballute by ESA for instance, the maximum re-entry temperature on its skin was 200 °C (392 °F).
Graph from this paper. Measured temperature reached a maximum of 200 °C (392 °F).
BALLOON RETURN FROM ORBIT
Then there’s an idea from 1966 to return a human being from orbit, in an emergency, using a balloon to dissipate some of the heat, though the seat for the astronaut acts as an aeroshell to dissipate most of it. It combines some of the approaches of the previous ideas. It’s never actually been tested in space.
The space engineers in the early 1960s explored many other such ideas detailed here: Rescue. Some seem rather hair-raising including the Paracone - the astronaut just sits in a seat, with their back towards the Earth, and aims towards the centre of a large continent, as its margin of error is 600 kilometers. When it re-enters, then a large inflatable aeroshell deploys with a crushable cone. There is no parachute - it relies on the aeroshell crushing during landing to protect the astronaut.
Paracone. The astronaut has an inflatable aeroshell stowed away in the seat. During re-entry this deploys. They have no parachute - the aeroshell just falls through the atmosphere at its terminal velocity of 42 km / hour (26 miles per hour) and its nose crumples when it hits the ground. It’s a bit like a deliberate slow car crash into a brick wall with a shock absorbing crumple zone.
Another similarly hair-raising idea is MOOSE (Manned Orbital Operations Safety Equipment). It’s a polyester (PET) film bag, with a flexible quarter inch thick ablative heat shield on the back, which you climb inside, and then fill with polyurethane foam. Unlike the Paracone, you do have a parachute as well, for the landing. Here is how it works:
PARAGLIDING FROM ORBIT
This is another idea originally developed for Gemini in the early 1960s. For a while, before they settled on the familiar parachutes, the engineers thought that after the fiery stage of re-entry, the capsules would glide down to Earth beneath a parasail or paraglider. Those tests were quite promising, though they ran into many issues, for instance getting the glider to unfold. Eventually this line of research ended in 1964, when they changed to the parachutes as used by Apollo. The Russians also used parachutes for the Soyuz flights. For details of the paraglider research, see: Coming Home
Anyway at around the same time, in 1960, the engineers came up with the idea of using the same paraglider approach to go all the way from orbit, right down to the surface, without an aeroshell. This was the idea of the inflatable paraglider (Rogallo wing), called “FIRST” (Fabrication of Inflatable Re-entry Structures for Test), another idea for a space self-rescue system for astronauts.
It could be folded up into a small cylindrical package which would be kept docked to a space station, much as our modern Soyuz TMA is. In an emergency, the crew enter this cylinder, and separate. The paraglider then inflates and deploys. It would re-enter at an angle of 1 degree, with the paraglider angle of attack of 70 degrees. They found that deceleration would not exceed two g’s, and that there would be minimal heating because of the way it glides down to the surface. It would approach the speed of sound at 43 km altitude, and from there it would be able to glide 345 km horizontally before eventually landing. Details here: FIRST Re-Entry Glider
CHANGING SHAPE FOR RE-ENTRY
The Spaceship-One uses a different idea for re-entry. It changes its wings to the “feather” position which also tilts the spacecraft so that it presents as much surface area as possible to its direction of flight, so slowing it down. This is only for a sub-orbital hop at present. The first demonstration of the feather system was in 2011.
The Virgin Galactica crash in 2014 was a result of the pilot accidentally unlocking the feathering system too soon. It then deployed by itself and changed the shape of the rocket far too early, when it still needed to be streamlined.
RETURNING THE FINAL STAGE OF A CONVENTIONAL ROCKET
What about returning a final stage? That also is low mass and it presents a large cross section if you fly it backwards, rocket motors first, with supersonic retropropulsion. So you’d think it might be reasonably easy to do.
First, some background. Every time a spaceship goes into orbit, it needs a final stage, a thin container full of fuel which is burnt right at the end, to get it to orbital velocity. It has to do that, because the spaceship itself is far too small to have enough fuel to get to orbit by itself, even with the help of the first (and sometimes second) stage.
It then discards the final stage, which normally orbits Earth a few times and finally falls back to Earth (apart from interplanetary missions and missions to the Moon, which often use a more powerful final stage, for instance nearly every mission to Mars also sends a final stage in the general direction of Mars too).
So, could a final stage be returned to Earth in the same way that SpaceX have returned the Falcon first stage? Well, when SpaceX returns the first stage of the Falcon 9, it slows down partly through friction in the upper atmosphere. The landing legs alone reduce its terminal velocity by a factor of two. It also has a burn in orbit and another burn just before it reaches the barge. You can see the first stage at the beginning and end of this movie (most of it is for the second stage). That may seem rather similar, but it only has to shed one kilometer per second of delta v, and much of that is done with the two burns.
Elon Musk has said he plans to re-use the final stage in the future, though it’s probably not going to work for the current Falcon 9. Here he answers the question: “Any plans for a reusable second stage?”
“The next generation vehicles after the Falcon architecture will be designed for full reusability.”
“I don't expect the Falcon 9 to have a reusable upper stage, just because with a kerosene-based system, the specific impulse isn't really high enough to do that, and a lot of the missions we do for commercial satellite deployment are geostationary missions. So, we're really going very far out. These are high delta-velocity missions, so to try to get something back from that is really difficult. But, with the next generation of vehicles, which is going to be a sub cooled methane oxygen system where the propellants are cooled closed to their freezing temperature to reduce their density, we could definitely do full reusability”
BASIC IDEA - LIGHTER FOR LOWER RE-ENTRY TEMPERATURES
The basic idea of all these designs is that the lighter it is, or the greater the cross sectional area it presents to the atmosphere, then the higher it is when it slows down, and so the lower the temperature of its skin during re-entry. What matters is the mass per cross sectional area - or more precisely, the ballistic coefficient (which is complex to calculate).
If the spaceship can use a glide to stay high in the atmosphere, this also helps. It also helps if it can use retropropulsion to reduce its velocity before it enters the atmosphere, and as it descends. Then, if it can radiate or absorb heat or ablate, for instance with an aeroshell, or use active cooling (perhaps in the future), this also helps.
Another way around it is to use a space elevator. Though we can’t build a space elevator quite yet, there are other things we could do right away that are rather similar. But first let’s look a bit closer at why we can’t build a space elevator quite yet.
MATERIALS FOR THE SPACE ELEVATOR
The main problem with building a space elevator is that it has to be so tall, because geostationary orbit is very high, around 35,786 km above the Earth’s surface. That’s a long length of cable to hold up against gravity.
It’s a little better than that figure might suggest, because gravity would get less, rapidly, as you go up the cable (by inverse square law). Also the cable is slowly spinning around the Earth at the centre, leading to a centrifugal force (strictly speaking, a “fictitious force” in the rotating rest frame) which counteracts gravity. At geostationary orbit you are in free fall and those two forces balance each other out, so your effective weight, and the weight of that section of the cable, is zero.
After taking that into account, it turns out that the material needs to be strong enough to hold up 4,960 km of its own weight under full gravity (result given by Arthur C. Clarke). It will then be able to hold up the full length of the space elevator in the Earth’s varying gravity all the way out to GEO.
But our current cables come a bit short of that. Kevlar is one of our best materials for this job, and under full gravity, it can only hold up 255 km of its own weight before snapping.
TAPERING
You can improve this situation to some extent by tapering. This is easiest to explain assuming uniform gravity, and let’s use 200 km sections of Kevlar for simplicity of the calculations, and a safety margin:
In this way, you can make a cable 300 km long with three strands, 400 km long with seven, 500 km long with fifteen, 600 km long with thirty one strands and so on.
Calculation indented to make it easy to skip:
The general formula is that for (n+1)
×100 km of elevator you need(2n−1)∗100 km of cable.So you could span 1,000 km without much trouble, as that’s just
100×(29−1) or 51,100 km of cable.However, to span 5,000 km with Kevlar under uniform gravity, you need
100×(249−1) km of cable, or around 56,000,000,000,000,000 km.Actually you’d need a lot more than that, as the 4,960 km under full gravity corresponds to 35,768 km under variable gravity. It would also be a lot more than seven times the amount, as most of the extra mass in this construction is right at the top near the hub. But with so many zeroes already, who cares?
Not practical.
It’s so close, yet so far! That increase in length from 1,000 km to 5,000 km is enough to turn something that’s reasonably practical to totally impossible. If only Kevlar was five times stronger, then it would be easy !
You can make the figures better if you use a continuous taper instead of steps of 100 km each, but it’s still impractical. You can find out the details in the published literature on the subject. For a tapered Kevlar space elevator you’d need the top of the cable to be 260 million times wider than the bottom. For instance, to suspend one millimeter diameter of cable to the ground, you need it to be 260 kilometers in diameter at GEO. (Figures for this and next paragraph from introduction to this paper)
For more on this see Arthur C. Clarke’s 1976 address to the IAU in Munich: The Space Elevator: ‘Thought experiment’ or key to the universe? (part 2) (see also Part 1 and Part 3). You may not know that he trained as a physicist with a first class degree in maths and physics before he became a science fiction writer.
FLAWED CARBON NANOTUBES
We don’t quite have that technology yet. If only we had perfect carbon nanotubes, they would do the trick, with a taper ratio of 1.9, so the top of the cable only needs to be a little under twice the diameter of the bottom. For a while scientists were quite optimistic about this.
Scanning electron micrograph of a “chiral” or spiral pattern carbon nanotube - one of several types. If we could make perfect nanotubes and combine them to make cables kilometers long we could use them to build a space elevator.
It seemed so promising, as perfect carbon nanotubes measured in the laboratory have a breaking height of 2,200 km, but all the carbon nanotubes constructed for practical applications have only a hundredth of their theoretical strength. They are actually weaker than Kevlar (1 GPa compared to 3.6 GPa for Kevlar). We do actually have carbon nanotube fibres, with Rice University pioneering the process that made them possible, with closely packed, aligned carbon nanotubes. These are strong, flexible, and conduct electricity well. They just aren’t quite space elevator material yet.
It turns out that if there is just a single atom out of place, they lose their strength. Sadly, our technology isn’t up to the task of making perfect carbon nanotubes with not an atom out of place, long enough to join together to make cables thousands of kilometers long. Also, with nanotubes so sensitive to damage, there’s the problem of what happens if you get defects introduced as a result of micrometeorites and other wear and tear.
Other materials also just aren’t strong enough yet. Kevlar has a breaking height of 255 km. There are a few other promising ones, Zylon (polybenzoxazole fiber) has a breaking height of 379 km (from page 14 of this study). But we’ve got a long way to go.
So it remains an idea at present. Some enthusiasts think it may be practical in the near future, perhaps even just a decade or two away.
Though we can’t build a space elevator on Earth yet with present day materials, we could build a space elevator from the Moon. It would be around 56,000 km from the Moon to the L1 position between the Moon and Earth, which is a point where the gravitational forces balance.
For more about the lunar space elevator see Lunar space elevator and see Hop David’s Beanstalks, Elevators, Clarke Towers
SKYHOOKS
You can also use a skyhook. It’s very like the space elevator, but you construct it downwards from a rather lower orbit than geostationary orbit. The bottom end can’t be attached to anything so it just dangles in our atmosphere, traveling around, much faster than our Earth rotates. That’s why it is called a skyhook. You could then just fly up to the bottom end of the skyhook, and if you fly fast enough you could keep pace with it in our atmosphere, and attach yourself to it. Then once you’ve done that, you can travel up the cable much as you do for the space elevator, until you are in orbit.
USING SKYHOOKS IF YOU HAVE A HANDY MOON
It’s easiest to construct a skyhook, if you have a handy moon or asteroid to attach it to. It’s a bit like the idea of the lunar elevator but constructed on a much smaller moon. If we had an extra moon close to Earth it might be very useful. We don’t have one, but Mars does, two of them. Here is an early concept study to use two skyhooks for Mars from a 1985 paper (described on page 70 of the Tethers in Space handbook):
The idea is - if you build a 6,100 km long skyhook type tether outwards from Deimos then it can throw objects out with escape velocity and also catch incoming spacecraft from elsewhere in the solar system to a gentle rendezvous that only needs docking thrusters, like docking with the ISS.
Then if you build a 2,960 km long skyhook tether inwards from Deimos and a 940 km tether outwards from Phobos, then it turns out that if you drop a spaceship off the Deimos tether, then it is traveling at just the right velocity to send you in a transfer orbit to the Phobos tether. Your transfer vehicle ends up stationary next to the Phobos tether when it gets there, with plenty of time to dock, much as spacecraft do with the ISS. Then you can just go down that tether to Phobos. All this requires no acceleration and no rocket fuel, apart from maneuvering thrusters for the docking itself. It works just as well in the opposite direction, drop your spaceship off the Phobos tether and the tether’s extra velocity will boost it to the Deimos one where it will come to rest with plenty of time to dock there.
Once you are on Phobos, a 1,160 km tether extended downwards towards Mars can be used to drop materials down to an elliptical orbit which reaches down to Low Mars Orbit at a height of 375 km when closest to Mars. Hop David found that slightly longer 1400 kilometer long tether could put it into an atmosphere grazing orbit so that you can use the Mars atmosphere for aerobraking to circularize its orbit.
The total mass for all these tethers if made from Kevlar is not that great considering what it does. You need between 5,000 and 90,000 tons if designed to handle a payload of 20,000 tons.
You could also bypass Deimos and just have a single tether from Phobos upwards to reach escape velocity right away.
The mass of Deimos and Phobos is so great that you could run this system for decades with no noticeable effects on their orbits. They act as a “momentum bank” so you wouldn’t need to be careful about always balancing movement of materials outwards with movement inwards, or using other methods to keep reboosting the tether.
Hop David has explored Phobos tethers in a lot more detail. He finds that a much shorter 7 km tether extending from Phobos towards Mars would let spacecraft dock with its L1 position where the gravity of Phobos is balanced with the gravity of Mars. It’s a tiny amount of gravity, only a ninetieth of Earth’s (0.11 m/sec²), but that way you could land without throwing up a cloud of dust, and also perhaps, without contaminating the surface of Phobos with rocket exhausts, which might well be useful.
Then, a very long 1,400 km tether grazing the Mars atmosphere would mean you only need 570 meters per second delta v to land on Mars. See Lower Phobos Tether and his General template for space elevators.
ROTOVATORS - SPINNING “SKYHOOKS”
We don't have any handy moons like that for Earth, but it turns out that there’s a better way to do it here. Instead of a simple skyhook, you use a “spinning skyhook” or rotovator, often called a “momentum exchange tether”. This spins in such a way that the end closest to the Earth moves backwards relative to its orbit around Earth. - this animation shows the idea:
Cycloid - zortig (wikipedia)
The line there represents half of a tether. A space tether should actually span the full diameter of the circle, but it’s the same idea.
As the tether orbits Earth, it spins, and if you arrange the rotation rate carefully you can arrange it so that the tip closest to Earth moves backwards at just the right speed to be completely stationary above Earth, just for a short while in each spin. You can never manage a stationary tip like that with a a skyhook.
That could be used to take a spacecraft traveling at faster than orbital velocity, (perhaps in a transfer orbit from the Moon or GEO), and slow it down so it is stationary, and momentarily hovering above the Earth’s atmosphere. Once you’ve done that then you can let it go gently, from the tip of the tether, and it falls down vertically, with a parachute perhaps. In the other direction, you could use the same approach to lift a payload, for instance, attached to a balloon, and attach it to the bottom of the space tether when stationary relative to Earth, and the tether would boost it into orbit, or send it to the Moon or in a transfer orbit to GEO all in one go.
SHORTER TETHER THAN A SPACE ELEVATOR
A momentum exchange tether doesn’t have to be as long as the space elevator to do this. You could have a shorter tether which spins more rapidly, in an orbit closer to Earth. That makes it a less massive construction.
It also means you get into orbit quickly. With the space elevator, it could take quite a while to get there. At 200 mph it would take seven and a half days to go up all the way to GEO, and at 2,000 mph it would take nearly 18 hours.
The space elevator can be thought of as a rotovator that rotates once a day and so can have one end fixed permanently to Earth.
This video shows the idea of launching a rocket vertically to meet the bottom end of a rotovator that is rotating at just the right speed to be stationary relative to Earth’s atmosphere. That’s a far easier thing to do than to launch a rocket to orbit.
However we don’t have the materials to do that yet either. Though the tether is shorter, it also has to spin more rapidly. You still need very strong materials, nearly as strong as for the space elevator.
Let’s try a couple of examples to give the idea, as usual, with the calculation indented to make it easy to skip:
This calculation is for untapered tethers only, and measurements are from centre to tip rather than tip to tip, and with the tethers skimming the atmosphere at 80 km.
To take an example, suppose you constructed a 1,000 km long tether (2,000 km tip to tip) spinning in space, with the center at an altitude of 1,080 km, and the lower tip skimming our atmosphere at 80 km. By this online orbit calculator tool its orbital speed is about 7.314 km / sec . The Earth’s surface moves eastward at 0.46 km / sec. Difference is 6.854 km / sec, So, using this tool SpinCalc it rotates at 0.06545 rotations per minute, relative to its centre. But that’s in a rotating rest frame so we have to correct for that; a small adjustment.
It does one rotation every 15.279 minutes. It orbits Earth every 106.68 minutes, so actually it does 6.982 rotations in each orbit. Then add an extra rotation for circling the Earth so in a stationary rest frame it is spinning 7.982 times every 106.68 minutes or at 0.07482 rpm. Now we can go back to SpinCalc and find it generates around 6.26 gs of artificial gravity at the tip. It does one rotation every 13.333 minutes. It’s around 3.13 gs half way between the tip and the centre, and that’s the average (the acceleration is
ω2r for fixed angular velocity ω and so increases linearly from 0 at the centre).You have to add 1 g for Earth’s gravity when it is hanging downwards towards Earth. So, although the cable length from the centre is only 1,000 km, it’s equivalent to holding up about 4,130 km of its own weight (that’s (1+3.13)*1000 km). In this calculation I haven’t taken account of the difference in gravity between 80 and 1,080 km above the surface of Earth which is quite considerable. It’s got only 73.2% of Earth’s gravity acting downwards at the centre of the tether (same as the acceleration
v2/r= 7.1795 meters per second, compared to full g of 9.807). So, an untapered tether needs to hold up the equivalent of between 3,862 km and 4,130 km of cable under 1 g. (there, 3,862 is 3.130 km + 73.2% of 1,000 km)That’s a saving of getting on for 1,000 km in the amount of cable the material has to be able to hold under its own weight in full g, over the nearly 5,000 km figure, for a complete space elevator. So the 1,000 km is better than the space elevator in this respect.
Let’s try a shorter tether of 100 km, say. By the orbit calculator its velocity at the center (at a height of 180 km) is 7.8 kilometers / sec, or relative to the surface, 7.4 km / sec.
It has an average of 56.84 gs (and 0.7 revolutions per second) when you do the calculation, okay for water and fuel, but no good for humans. Add 1 g when closest to Earth, and you work out that it needs to hold up the equivalent of around 5,780 km of cable under 1 g (and only very slightly less once you take account of varying gravity).
So the 100 km tether is actually worse than the full length space elevator. It’s not really worth taking account of the varying gravity or the rotating rest frame in this case, because for such a short tether the effects will be quite small.
So the results for spinning untapered tethers with their tip stationary momentarily over the Earth’s surface at an altitude of 80 km, and using the length of tether from center to tip are:
This leads to many more questions which would be great to know the answers to (indented again so easy to skip):
- This calculation is for untapered tethers. What is the mass of a tapered tether for each tether size and breaking height?
- Which is the minimal mass tapered tether for a given material with a particular breaking height. For instance, what is the minimum mass for a Zylon tapered tether, breaking height 379 km, with the tip momentarily Earth stationary when closest to Earth, and how long is it?
- Does it make a difference if you require a realistic maximum g tolerance at the tip for the cargo and for passengers?
- What strength of material could make this type of tether feasible, and is it significantly less strong than for a space elevator?
To answer these questions requires much more complex calculations. Not only do you have to take account of the inverse square law variation of Earth’s gravity along the cable; you also have to take account of tapering, and then turn it into a minimization problem. I haven’t found these figures anywhere yet. If anyone reading this knows of anyone who has worked this out, do say in the comments, thanks!
The general pattern is that you need the strongest materials for very short tethers. You also need very strong materials for a tether all the way to GEO. In between, you find a sweet spot where the tethers don’t need to be quite so strong, but still they aren’t far off the strength you need for a space elevator.
If some day we do have space elevator materials, then these tethers would give a great way of achieving a similar effect for much less total mass, and also, because the tether is shorter, it’s a way of getting into orbit more quickly than for the space elevator. But until we have those materials, we need to use a “watered down version” which is not able to hover stationary over the Earth’s surface. However, it would still be enough to make a difference. Normally, you need to travel at about Mach 20-25 to go into low Earth orbit (depending on how high the orbit is). The launch assist tether reduces that to Mach 12 or less.
From: Hypersonic Airplane Space Tether Orbital Launch (HASTOL) System.
This video explains it well:
For more details, see Launch Assist Tethers. You could use the same process in reverse to de-orbit a spacecraft to Mach 12 in the upper atmosphere, and then it glides down from there.
So this would give you a way to slow down your orbiting spacecraft to Mach 12 instead of Mach 20 upwards, which would be quite a plus.
That’s still very fast. It’s four times the speed of the Lockheed SR-71 Blackbird supersonic spy plane, or Virgin Galactica’s SpaceShipOne (Mach 3.09), and more than twice the speed of the ESA’s projected Mach 5 aircraft:
So you still need something that is much more like a space plane than a normal hypersonic aircraft. But the big advantage is that a Mach 12 or lower space plane is much easier to make re-usable than a Mach 20 - 25 one.
They have other ideas in the paper such as a “two stage tether” where you have a smaller tether spinning around the tip of a larger tether. This reduces the total tether mass, rather like the idea of a two stage rocket launch, for a given tether tip velocity.
Two stage tether idea from their paper. A shorter tether spinning around the tip of the longer tether leading to a greater tip velocity - so slower speed in the upper atmosphere - for less total mass. It’s got some parallels with the two stage rocket propulsion ideas.
REBOOSTING THE TETHER AFTER THE GRAVITATIONAL ASSIST, USING SOLAR POWER, OR BY DROPPING MATERIALS INTO EARTH’S GRAVITATIONAL WELL
The tether loses speed, dropping into a lower orbit to compensate, every time it lifts a spaceplane out of the atmosphere. But it can get back into position in between those gravity assists, by using solar power to send electric current along the tether. This uses the Earth's magnetic field for a motor to accelerate back into orbit.
Or, rather elegantly, it can also do it by de-orbiting a similar payload. For instance, it could de-orbit a spacecraft returning to Earth, or materials exported to Earth from the Moon or asteroids. This was all fully worked out in the plans for the Hypersonic Airplane Space Tether Orbital Launch (HASTOL) System.
USING THE SAME IDEA OF DROPPING MATERIALS INTO A GRAVITATIONAL WELL TO POWER A TETHER TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM TO AND FROM THE MOON
Hoyt has suggested that we could use the same approach for exports from the Moon. Our materials are already easily strong enough to make a rotovator which can be stationary relative to the Moon, for a short while each time it briefly touches the lunar surface.
The Moon is high in the Earth’s gravitational well, so if we had two such tethers, one orbiting the Moon and one orbiting the Earth, the whole thing could be powered by movement of materials “downwards” from the Moon to Earth. It’s rather like the way movement of water downhill powers a waterwheel. For more details, a diagram and cites, see the Exporting materials from the Moon section in my “Case for Moon” book, available to read free online, or for kindle.
This cisulnar transport system is not nearly as massive as a space elevator, with a total mass less than thirty times a typical payload, so there is much less construction needed. That’s few enough payloads, so that it would soon pay for itself with frequent transport to and from the Moon. In his scheme the rotovator in Earth orbit just slows down payloads to LEO speeds, for instance to deliver ice from the Moon as fuel to use in LEO. But the materials could also be returned to a HASTOL type tether and into the Earth’s atmosphere easily enough.
Robert Hoyt and the science fiction writer Robert Forward are hoping to actually build orbital tethers some day, and have founded a small company Tethers Unlimited to do it.
USING SPINNING “FREE SKYHOOKS” TO EXPORT MATERIALS THROUGHOUT THE SOLAR SYSTEM
You can also have "free skyhooks" orbiting in interplanetary space, as in tthis suggestion by Hans Moravec from 1986. These just spin on their own axis in free space, nowhere near any planet. He describes a 20,000 ton skyhook made of Kevlar designed to boost a payload of 50 tons (same mass as the Space Shuttle).
Within those parameters, it could be anything from 100 km long, spinning once every 4 minutes to accelerate the payloads at 8 g, or 20,000 km long, spinning once every 12 hours, to accelerate them at 1/25 of a g.
“Eight such skyhooks could span the solar system. One would be needed in the orbit of Mercury, one halfway between Mercury and Venus, one each in the orbits of Venus, Earth and Mars, one in the asteroids, one by Jupiter, and a final one at Uranus.
Each provides enough delta v to get a payload to the next one, and Uranus' accelerates to solar escape velocity. The trip from Mercury to Earth takes less than a year, as does Earth to Mars. An extra year and a half is needed to reach the asteroids, and the outer planet part of the journey takes decades."
This is from his Orbital Bridges. He also gives some figures for lengths and cross sectional areas for various free skyhooks to catch a Venus-Earth transfer and accelerate it to Earth-Mars transfer orbit here: Free Space Skyhooks
Just as for Hoyt’s cislunar tether, the whole thing could be powered by materials flowing down the gravitational well. In this case the gravitational well of the Sun itself.
LAUNCH LOOP - ANOTHER WAY TO GET TO ORBIT - BUT NOT BACK
The idea is to cause materials to levitate by accelerating them inside an evacuated tube. You could use a belt or a continuous chain, accelerated magnetically much as you accelerate a maglev train. The materials inside the track go around a circular track at the end and return the way they came so making a continuous loop.
Then you accelerate passengers and cargo to orbit along this levitated track, again using maglev.
Loftstrom estimates that you could build a launch loop for $10 billion able to send 40,000 metric tons to orbit per year. He estimates a similar payload cost per ton to the space elevator of $300 per ton. But it wouldn’t be used for landing.
YUNITSKIY’S IDEA - BUILD A SIMILAR LEVITATING LOOP ROUND THE WORLD
Yunitskiy had the idea of building a levitating loop all the way around the equator, using a similar construction to the launch loop. I don’t understand his idea in detail - most of his writings on it are in Russian. But his basic idea is to first build an overpass all the way around the Earth at the equator which would already be useful for transport from place to place on the Earth.
Then, he would have an evacuated tube in it, attached to the overpass and clamped to it, evacuated to a hard vacuum. Inside this, he has a magnetically levitated inner ring, the “rotor”, which also continues all the way around the equator, which is a sort of belt or chain. Both rings are segmented with flexible joints that can be stretched. He then accelerates the inner ring. He keeps the whole thing clamped to the ground until the inner ring is traveling at faster than orbital velocity at sea level. He then releases the clamps and because it is moving so fast, this causes it to lift up off the ground, all round the world at once, levitated as for the launch loop until eventually it reaches orbit.
This shows it in action starting to rise up into the sky. The pipe above it is evacuated and inside it is a “rotor” - a continuous chain or belt that orbits the Earth, magnetically levitated inside the tube and traveling through it at more than the ground level orbital velocity of thousands of miles an hour. Because it is moving so fast, this causes it to levitate above the Earth, raising the tube that encloses it with it. By continuing to accelerate the rotor inside the tube, the entire ring rises up into the sky until it reaches the height of Low Earth Orbit, carrying everything attached to it.
Artist’s impression from here Unitsky String Technologies - Site News
His idea is to use it to raise payload to orbit by attaching payloads to the ring, cause it to rise up to orbit, where it is then used to accelerate and release payloads and then take incoming payloads in orbit and de-orbit them in the same way by reversing the entire process to lower the ring back to Earth.
His system is much more complex than this description, and for some reason, it has two rings running in opposite directions inside. It’s summarized in wikipedia here. His video about it is here. I’m not sure how well it would work but it has some interesting points in it which is why I thought it was worth sharing.
So that then leads naturally to Paul Birch’s idea of orbital rings.
ORBITAL RINGS
This is a fun idea. It doesn’t get as much attention in science fiction as the space elevator for some reason. Unlike a space elevator, you can build it already with present day materials, not just on the Moon, or in free space, but as a way to get into orbit from Earth as well. But it is likely to be very expensive to build it in the first place, unless you have a low cost way to get materials to orbit already.
The first orbital ring is very very expensive. But once you’ve built it, you can then send up more materials to expand it easily for a very low cost.
As with the space elevator you just go up to the platform above the upper atmosphere in an elevator. Then in the opposite direction, once you have an orbital ring you can just travel down to the surface in an elevator.
It’s rather similar to the sky towers idea. You are stationary above the Earth, and experiencing nearly full g as you are not in free fall - so you still need some way to get to and from orbit from the ring, but you could use maglev to accelerate along the ring to get to orbital speed.
To build this structure, what you need is a wire that circles the Earth, at orbital heights and moving around the Earth at orbital velocity. It would be very thin to start with; this doesn’t matter. It stays in orbit just through its own velocity, like an orbiting satellite. Run a current through it and then you can have objects levitating on it much like a maglev train. But in the case of a maglev train, the track stays still and the train travels around it at up to hundreds of miles an hour. Here the track travels around the world at its orbital velocity of 7.8 km / sec (if you build it in LEO), and your levitated platform travels along the track in the opposite direction nearly as fast relative to the track, racing in order to stay still as it were.
At 16,500 mph relative to the track, it’s traveling more than twenty seven times faster than the fastest maglev train (603 km/h) and also many times faster than a hypervelocity bullet. But there are no earthquakes, no weather, and its in the hard vacuum of space. If you do that, your platform will be stationary relative to the ground.
So now you can lower a cable down from your magnetically levitated platform to the ground. If you do that just anywhere then there is no way the orbital ring will support it, but you can arrange to have a kink like this in your ring to support it from:
Now the orbital ring consists of two elliptical segments (the diagram is hugely exaggerated in scale; they would both be close to circular) and then the kink gives an upward force that let’s suspend your skyhook, or “Jacob’s ladder” as Paul Birch called it when he proposed the idea in a series of three articles for the British Interplanetary Society.
As soon as you have the first one built, however small, you can then bring up materials along the cable and use it to make your orbital ring more massive, or build new ones. You can build an orbital ring like this at any height. You can also build it at any angle too. It doesn’t have to orbit above the equator, so you can build it along a slanting orbit like the one the ISS follows. You can arrange the balance of forces on the whole system, including the weight of the skyhooks, so that it slowly precesses, and if you do that carefully you can get it to precess once every 24 hours, which keeps it stationary relative to Earth.
So in this way you can actually build elevators up into space from anywhere on the Earth to a platform hovering at the same height as LEO, but stationary relative to the Earth. You wouldn’t be at orbital velocity yet when you get there, you’d just be above the atmosphere and stationary relative to the Earth looking down. But you can then have, say, a maglev train that accelerates along a track along the orbital ring, until you reach orbital velocity.
It’s safe also. The ladders into space are stationary relative to the Earth, so would just fall down vertically into an area a few kilometers long and a few hundred meters wide if they broke. As for the orbital rings themselves, if damaged, they would actually “fall” upwards into a higher orbit. You can read the techy details here: Orbital Rings-I, II, III.
You can build orbital rings around the Moon too. And though orbital rings around Earth would be so expensive to build with rockets, perhaps a trillion dollars (in his 1980s calculation), the cost would go down a lot if you could get materials from the Moon.
It would be a huge asset once built, as the cost per kilogram to send materials into orbit would be only cents. It’s a “bootstrapping problem”. If only we had an orbital ring already, even a small one, it would be very easy and low cost to build lots of orbital rings. But how do we get started? See also the wikipedia article Orbital ring
If one of the other techniques mentioned already gives you a very low cost way to get materials to low Earth orbit (such as skylon, orbital airship, or launch loop) or from the Moon (Hoyt’s cislunar tether transport system), then perhaps we can build an orbital ring as well, for a reasonable cost.
Check out my book for more surprising astronomy answers like this:
Simple Questions - Surprising Answers - In Astronomy,
It is a compilation of some of my quora answers . I’ve just added this answer as the last one in the book.
My answer is more about what they are not, because I’ve come across widespread confusion when talking about them to other Westerners, and I think you can’t really understand what they are about unt...
(more)My answer is more about what they are not, because I’ve come across widespread confusion when talking about them to other Westerners, and I think you can’t really understand what they are about until you clear up these misconceptions, which you might not realize you have. The truths themselves are simple to state, not many words. You may feel they surely have to be easy to understand. However, after Buddha gave the teachings to his four companions in the wheel turning sutra, only one of them, Koṇḍañña , saw the true meaning of the teachings
“This is what the Blessed One said. Elated, the bhikkhus of the group of five delighted in the Blessed One's statement. And while this explanation was being spoken, there arose in the venerable Koṇḍañña the dust-free, stainless vision of the Basic Pattern: "whatever is patterned with an origination, all that is patterned with a cessation."”
the Four True Realities for the Spiritually Ennobled Ones
So if you find yourself a bit puzzled about them, not sure what they mean, that’s good. Let yourself experience that confusion :). It is a sign of wisdom actually, to feel you don’t fully understand what they mean. That’s the start of the Buddhist path it’s not that you realize the four truths, or you’d be enlightened already. It is that you find them intriguing and feel there is some truth in them that you want to follow up.
But before one can get to that point, we do need to clear up the misconceptions! Otherwise you have no chance.
First of these misconceptions is the idea that the aim of a Buddhist following the four truths is to end rebirth. It’s true that all the sutras (collection of texts recording the teachings of the Buddha) say that after he become enlightened, Buddha never took rebirth again, that it's his last rebirth. Everyone agrees, that's his paranirvana. But it doesn't follow at all from that, that when he became enlightened as a young man, his main aim was to end rebirth, or that that should be the aim of the practitioner.
Cessation in the sense of the four truths is the cessation of the suffering of birth, old age, sickness, death, and all forms of unsatisfactoriness. This, Buddha himself said, he realized when he became enlightened. Buddha reached cessation, nirvana, as a young man under the Boddhi tree. Not when he died.
And yet, he still got old, and experienced sickness, and died after he became enlightened. That’s something you need to contemplate when you try to understand what he meant by cessation here. How can you reach cessation of suffering, and at the same time continue to live in this world, teach others, get sick, die? What does it mean? That’s one of the central points to contemplate as a Buddhist. It’s like a Zen koan.
CESSATION IS NOT A KIND OF FROZEN IMMOBILITY
Another confusion is the idea that Buddha reached nirvana by ending karma and achieving a kind of state of doing nothing, immobility.
Normally the third and fourth truths are stated like this (with small variations)
3. The truth of the cessation of dukkha (suffering, anxiety, unsatisfactoriness)
4. The truth of the path leading to the cessation of dukkha
That’s from the old version of the wikipedia article on the Four Noble Truths
This is the statement of the third truth in the current version of this article. It differs from all other statements of the third truth that you will find (including indeed the other answers to this question) by stating it as a path to end rebirth.
3. “Nirodha, the cessation of dukkha. By stopping this craving and clinging nirvana is attained, no more karma is produced, and rebirth and dissatisfaction will no longer arise again”
The fourth truth is stated similarly “By following the Noble Eightfold Path, …, craving and clinging will be stopped, and rebirth and dissatisfaction are ended”
I can’t stress enough how very wrong this idea is. It suggests Nirvana as an effect you try to create, as some kind of heaven state. Perhaps it is a melding of views of other religions with Buddhism. It suggests that the idea is to stop karma in order to reach a “karma free state”. This is not based on any Buddhist scholar source but is a restatement of the third and fourth truths by a wikipedia editor, made by smashing together cites on nirvana and paranirvana. It embodies most of the Western misunderstandings about the four truths.
If that was what Buddha meant to say, why did he always teach the four noble truths as a path to cessation of suffering? Why didn’t he teach it as a path to end karma and to stop rebirth if that was what he really meant?
In Buddhist teaching we have countless karmic effects from previous life. How could you “stop producing karma”? Anything you do, even if you were to sit immobile in meditation for the rest of your life, that still has effects. You still breathe, people would stop and wonder why you were staying still, you would get hungry and need to eat, need to drink, get old. In Buddhist teachings on karma, positive, negative and neutral karma all binds you to samsara. They don’t “balance each other out”. After Buddha reaches enlightenment, he is still able to interact with the world and other humans and creatures to teach them.
So whatever it might mean to become enlightened and to no longer be caught up in samsara, it doesn’t mean that you have to stop all interactions and stop doing anything that has an effect. That’s not why Buddha entered paranirvana when he died, whatever paranirvana means, it can’t mean this.
According to Buddha’s teachings that couldn’t work anyway. Nirvana would be a conditioned produced thing, dependent on conditions, ending when whatever is maintaining it ceases. If it is due to stopping doing anything that has an effect and so stopping rebirth, by a kind of immobility basically - what happens if after a few trillion or quadrillion years there is some movement in your endless immobility and you are no longer able to stop rebirth any more?
Rebirth is not mentioned anywhere in the Pali text for the wheel turning sutra itself, where the four truths are first presented. The canon itself is vast, a whole encyclopedia of books and most Buddhists never read it in its entirety, just because there is too much to read. You might wonder if perhaps somewhere else he gives different teachings on this.
However Buddhist scholars expert on the Pali canon who have read it in its entirety are clear about it, that nirvana, cessation, is something you can realize in this very life. There may be some sects that have other views but this is the central teaching of the main branches of Buddhism.
TRUTH IS, NIRVANA IS
Walpola Rahula puts it clearly (this is perhaps the most highly regarded of all books on Therevadhan Buddhism in English)
"It is incorrect to think that Nirvāṇa is the natural result of the extinction of craving. Nirvāṇa is not the result of anything. If it would be a result, then it would be an effect produced by a cause. It would be saṃkhata ‘produced’ and ‘conditioned’. Nirvāṇa is neither cause nor effect. It is beyond cause and effect. Truth is not a result nor an effect. It is not produced like a mystic, spiritual, mental state, such as dhyāna or samādhi. TRUTH IS. NIRVĀṆA IS. The only thing you can do is to see it, to realize it. There is a path leading to the realization of Nirvāṇa. But Nirvāṇa is not the result of this path. You may get to the mountain along a path, but the mountain is not the result, not an effect of the path. You may see a light, but the light not the result of your eyesight.
...
In almost all religions the summum bonum can be attained only after death. But Nirvāṇa can be realized in this very life; it is not necessary to wait till you die to ‘attain’ it."(from The Third Noble Truth - Walpola Rahula: What the Buddha Taught)
PATH OF SEEING THINGS FOR YOURSELF
There is another major problem with this idea that the aim of Buddhists is to end rebirth.
If he had taught in this way, it would require practitioners to believe in rebirth before we can become a Buddhist. But Buddha taught that we need to see things for ourselves:
“'Don't go by reports, by legends, by traditions, by scripture, by logical conjecture, by inference, by analogies, by agreement through pondering views, by probability, or by the thought, "This contemplative is our teacher."
When you know for yourselves that, "These qualities are unskillful; these qualities are blameworthy; these qualities are criticized by the wise; these qualities, when adopted & carried out, lead to harm & to suffering" — then you should abandon them.' Thus was it said. And in reference to this was it said.
"… When you know for yourselves that, 'These qualities are skillful; these qualities are blameless; these qualities are praised by the wise; these qualities, when adopted & carried out, lead to welfare & to happiness' — then you should enter & remain in them.”
Now this is a much misunderstood passage. The translator notes :
“Although this discourse is often cited as the Buddha's carte blanche for following one's own sense of right and wrong, it actually says something much more rigorous than that. Traditions are not to be followed simply because they are traditions. Reports (such as historical accounts or news) are not to be followed simply because the source seems reliable. One's own preferences are not to be followed simply because they seem logical or resonate with one's feelings.
Instead, any view or belief must be tested by the results it yields when put into practice; and — to guard against the possibility of any bias or limitations in one's understanding of those results — they must further be checked against the experience of people who are wise. “
So, he isn’t saying - go ahead and believe anything you like just on a whim. It’s after observation and careful analysis and Buddha gave many specific and detailed teachings and other teachers also after him, through to the present day. Even in Zen. Though they have such a different way of teaching, there are Zen scholars, and it's a sutra tradition. Ordinary practitioners don't need to learn this at all to be a Buddhist but it is there for those that need it. Those of a scholarly bent will spend many years learning the detailed teachings.
Buddha is not saying here that you can just make up anything, spin it out of your own imagination, follow your own made up path, and call it Buddhism :). Westerners so often misinterpret it like that.
But on the other hand, Buddhists consider that there is no virtue at all in believing in these detailed teachings for their own sake either.
EXAMPLE OF SOMETHING WE CAN SEE FOR OURSELVES - THE TRUTH OF SUFFERING AND UNSATISFACTORINESS
For instance we can all see the truth of suffering and unsatisfactoriness. Also one can come to see for oneself that we have no permanent state of satisfaction and permanent worldly happiness in this life, everything is subject to change. That's the basic starting point of the Buddhist teachings, and it is something you come to see for yourself.
If you can imagine somehow someone had never experienced suffering and had no idea what pain or unsatisfactoriness was - there wouldn't be any value in them saying "I believe in suffering". But seeing it for yourself is of great benefit. Understanding that yourself and others suffer is a basis for compassion for others and for yourself too and that's the starting point of the path.
So all the teachings are understood in this sense. Things that you can come to see for yourself just as you see the truth of suffering and can come to see that you can’t establish a state of permanent worldly happiness in this life. That much as you may enjoy chocolate for instance, that you can’t keep yourself permanently happy by continually eating chocolate :). And one can come to see that there is nothing else either that can lead to permanent worldly happiness. Many things like that which we can see for ourselves.
REBIRTH AS SOMETHING MOST OF US CAN’T SEE FOR OURSELVES - AND NEED FOR AN OPEN MIND ABOUT IT
So if the central teaching, the Four Noble Truths were understood as a teaching about ending rebirth, then that would be a major block for most practitioners right at the get go, because most of us can’t even see that we are reborn from our own experience. In fact Buddha never mentions rebirth anywhere in this central wheel turning sutra. In many other places yes, but not in this central teaching at all.
Indeed not only are we not required to believe in rebirth - it’s also important to keep an open mind about it. I do believe that I have been reborn many times and will do so again in the future. But I don’t know that from my own experience and with Buddha’s teachings, if you follow his path, it is very very important to be clear about what you know for sure, such as the truth of suffering ,and what you believe but haven’t established, e.g in my case whether I am reborn. And to keep an open mind about the things one can’t see for oneself. So to make the aim to end rebirth would be to close the minds of practitioners about rebirth, as they would have to have specific ideas there that they have to believe without being able to see them for themselves before they could become a Buddhist and follow the path. This would make it hard to impossible for them to approach the subject of rebirth with an open mind, which is so important along the Buddhist path. That goes right against the central thrust of Buddhism.
SO AIM CAN’T BE TO END REBIRTH
So the aim can’t be to end rebirth and it isn’t. That’s just a Western misconception about Buddhism. It may be an aim in Hinduism, I’m not sure, but it can’t be in Buddhism. Not in the central sutra based traditions at least since the sutras are clear on this point.
Sometimes Buddhism may be taught in ways that seem to suggest that the aim is to acquire beliefs (such as rebirth), but it's not really and at some point it gets challenged. In some traditions of Tibetan Buddhism they build up whole elaborate systems of belief,only to demolish them and then build up another. The sand mandala and the way it gets washed away by the water at the end is to do with that.
There are many ways to teach. Some very elaborate, some very simple. In the Indian traditions the teachings given to the great Indian mahasiddhas were often very simple, just a few words. The same is also true of Zen Buddhism. They may not teach the four noble truths in so many words. But even Zen Buddhism does have the four noble truths as a central teaching. Even if for some practitioners they just need to look at a flower to see the truth, with no words at all.
GOOD SOURCES ON THE FOUR NOBLE TRUTHS
So that leads to the question, if the present version of the wikipedia article is not to be trusted, what are good sources on the Four Noble Truths?
Well, even the Western academics will say that the best sources, if you want to learn how contemporary Buddhists understand the sutras, are the Buddhist scholars themselves.
Buddhism has always been a religion with many scholars. Back in the sixth century through to 1200, the Buddhist Nalanda University was one of the centers of learning in the world with scholars coming to it from far and wide..
These are the remains of the library of Nalanda University - reported to have had hundreds of thousands of books, and reportedly burnt for three months when it was destroyed around 1200, after flourishing for around six centuries. (That's according to Persian historian Minhaj-i-Siraj - see History of Libraries entry on Nalanda)
And there is and was a fine scholarly tradition in all the main Buddhist countries, such as Sri Lanka, Thailand, Japan, Tibet etc.
The old version of the four noble truths article relied extensively on these Buddhist scholars. Four Noble Truths
Where the new version goes wrong I think, is that it relies over much on the Western academics, often obscure ones. Their articles are often dense and technical, and though many of them are excellent and there are some really good Western scholars, others sometimes contain misunderstandings, and even if accurate, they are so technical that they are often easy for readers who are not fully involved in the complex debates to misunderstand or to interpret as meaning almost anything.
So, if you accept that the Buddhist scholars are the best sources for understanding how Buddhists themselves understand the four truths, then which are the best ones to go for?
Well it’s a vast literature and I am not a scholar myself, not widely versed at all. But I can make a few suggestions to get started.
I think many would say that the best source on the Four Noble Truths in English is the book "What the Buddha Taught" by Walpola Rahula. He straddled both worlds as a one of the top Sri Lankan scholar monks, and also the first bikkhu to become a professor in an American university.
He writes very well, in plain English, but don’t let that mislead you. He is an expert on this, with a thorough understanding of the Pali Canon - the earliest teachings we have from the Buddha. These teachings are central to all the Buddhist sutra traditions - there are some variations but he touches on that also briefly. Here is the link again: "What the Buddha Taught"
For a Zen perspective, try The Four Noble Truths - International Zen Association United Kingdom
And for an idea of how they are understood in Tibetan Buddhism, you could read the Dalai Lama's talk about the four truths. He's not just the Dalai Lama, he's also a scholar monk too, completed his training as a young man, and astonished his peers with his erudite understanding of Tibetan Buddhism, so he is a good source for Tibetan Buddhism. So, at least for those who think that the best way to find out how Buddhists understand the sutras is to ask the scholar monks, then the Dalai Lama, as one of the top scholar monks in the Tibetan tradition, is one of the best to go to to find out about Tibetan Buddhism :). One of his talks on the subject is here: Lama Yeshe Wisdom Archives
Another good source in the Therevadhan path is this article by Venerable Sumedho from the Amaravati monastery in Southern England. I've heard him talk in Oxford. And we actually meditated in their place too, the Tibetan Buddhist group I belonged to in Oxford, when they had nowhere else to go.
Anyway they are authentic good Therevadhan monks that follow the traditional approach even setting out with begging bowls to beg for food every morning in the English countryside. And he's a good teacher. So, this gives an idea of how a Therevadhan teacher would teach the subject.
There are many other sources, but those should get you off to a decent start.
For an overview, and more cites to follow up, the previous version of the wikipedia article was good, with many quotes from Buddhist scholars: Four Noble Truths
The sutra where Buddha first taught the four truths, according to the sutras, is the Dhammacakkappavattana Sutta - the “wheel turning” sutra where Buddha set in motion the wheel of the teachings. There are several alternative translations of it here: the Four True Realities for the Spiritually Ennobled Ones
Oh, and though all the traditions agree that Buddha entered paranirvana so can never take rebirth again, the later Mahayana traditions especially say that other Buddhas don’t necessarily enter paranirvana when they die. They are able to continue to interact, even can “emanate” as new rebirths, young babies born like everyone else that somehow carry the inspiration of a Buddha from birth, whatever that means. Even can “emanate” as inanimate things like rivers, bridges, flowers, plants.
Well in a way the whole world carries the inspiration of the historical Buddha for a Buddhist following the path. I’ve heard it described by my main teacher for many years as his “impure land” because it was blessed by him taking birth here, though it is not a “pure land” where everything carries the inspiration of the teachings.
However, in the Mahayana teachings, there’s the idea that there’s some sense in which this inspiration can be more direct for emanations of Buddhas. I’m not sure how it works, so just mentioning it. This is a Mahayana idea, I don’t think you have it in Therevadhan Buddhism, the idea of an emanation of a Buddha??
See An Interivew with Dilgo Khyentse Rinpoche
STANDARD WARNING - PLEASE DON’T EDIT THE WIKIPEDIA ARTICLE TO TRY TO “FIX” THESE ISSUES
I encountered many of these misconceptions while attempting to get other editors to fix the Wikipedia article on the topic and while talking to others off wiki about it. If you want to read about that episode, see my answer to Is Wikipedia biased? I am currently reaching the end of a six month ban on mentioning the “four noble truths” anywhere in wikipedia just because of attempts to get them to fix it by talking on the talk page of the article.
Wikipedia has a strict policy on canvasing and proxy editing. It’s absolutely prohibited to recruit people to the articles to edit them in your favour once a dispute has arisen there (as in this case). You can understand why - otherwise whenever someone was opposed by another editor on the talk pages they would just get all their friends to open wikipedia accounts and shout loudly that they are right in the debate and win the day.
It’s absolutely fine to encourage friends and other editors to come and edit wikipedia before a dispute arises. But once it arises, then you run into this issue that recruiting anyone you know will support you in the debates counts as canvasing and is forbidden.
So - please don’t try to fix the article as a result of reading this. We just have to leave them to it and hope that some day it gets fixed in the natural course of events. Thanks!
This originates as Buddhist sources on the Four Noble Truths by Robert Walker on Some ideas about Buddhist teachings
For sources - see the sources for the original version of the Four Noble Truths article on Wikipedia before the rewrites. As you’ll see, it is heavily cited throughout.
Summary first then I’ll go into details. The background to this is that nobody has proved that Morgellons is delusional, despite many journalist articles and the wikipedia page on the topic saying ...
(more)Summary first then I’ll go into details. The background to this is that nobody has proved that Morgellons is delusional, despite many journalist articles and the wikipedia page on the topic saying definitively that it is a delusion. The CDC were not able to do so as they are a disease research institution and not expert on psychological diagnoses.
One thing that complicates this is that Lyme disease is well known to cause mental illness with over 250 medical articles linking tick borne diseases with mental illness. So it’s not that surprising if Morgellons sufferers have mental conditions. It’s thought that the spirochete infects the nervous system causing these symptoms.
Also the CDC report didn’t disprove that it is a disease either. Though very expensive, because of the way it was conducted and the rarity of the condition, it only evaluated 41 patients. It cost more than $14,000 per patient evaluated. Also they didn’t ask if the patients they studied had Morgellons so it is not even clear how many of those 41 thought of themselves as having Morgellons. It was also done at a time when there were many competing hypotheses so they didn’t have a single theory to test.
The report itself, especially if you read the report itself, is far less conclusive and more hedged about with discussion of the limitations of the study than the CDC summary of it. It doesn’t claim to have closed the book on the subject and has been assumed by many to have established much more than it actually did. It’s also been criticized for not using the most sensitive tests for spirochetes available. More on all this below.
Also there is new research only in the last few years, which suggests that it is actually related to digital dermatitis, a disease of cattle, which the CDC did not test for as nobody thought of it in those terms back then. The few remaining researchers are all converged on this as their main hypothesis. This is peer reviewed research in mainstream medical journals. I will go into this in a bit more detail in a moment.
If this is right then it is not spread from one person to another. Rather it has a similar cause to Lyme disease though the details of the disease are different. The main thing is to be careful to remove ticks immediately if you are bitten by them. If you do it within a few hours of getting the tick, apparently the chance of getting Lymes is minimal. I use the O'Tom tick twister myself - its a really easy way to remove them far easier than tweezers.
Watch out for a spreading circular rash like this.
If you see anything like that, go to the doctor right away. Lyme disease - and Morgellons also if it is connected - can be stopped right in its tracks so long as you get a strong dose of antibiotics - and not just any antibiotic, it has to be a particular type of very strong antibiotic, as soon as the rash appears. I actually live in a tick area myself and got a rash like this earlier this summer. I went to the doctor, got my medicine and it vanished quickly, within a few days. Of course then you continue to the end of the course of antibiotics.
However it is not a pandemic in the sense of a disease you can catch from others, as you can’t be infected by others with Morgellons, if this is the right answer.
Probably the reason more people are coming forward with it is just that before it didn’t have a name and they were isolated individuals who were suffering from it and told by their doctors that it was delusional parasitosis or the doctor just didn’t know what it was - like any rare disease that only affects a tiny fraction of the population. Now they have a word they can rally around and they can make contact with other sufferers with similar symptoms which they could never do before. So I doubt if it is becoming more common, just more reported.
People with Morgellons generally turn out to have been in a Lyme disease tick district in the past. If the hypothesis is right, Morgellons doesn't start up immediately after the tick byte. The spirochetes have to get into the fibroblasts and keratinocytes first before they start generating the fibres that cause the problems. The fibers themselves are created by your own body in response to the spirochetse. It is easy to forget a tick bite and you don't always get the red rash (though I think you usually do) and it is also easy to get a rash and not think much of it and not notice that it is that circular shape or just not know its significance.
So now more on the background. First if you are a medical professional / academic and just want to read the latest research, this paper is a good summary, published September 2016: Morgellons disease: a filamentous borrelial dermatitis | IJGM
MEDICAL CAVEAT
Since this is an answer on medicine, I feel I need to give a medical warning. First there are many other conditions that are easily confused with Morgellons (putting aside for one moment the question of whether Morgellons is a disease or a delusional condition). I suggest that if you think you have the condition, that you talk to your doctor first and go through all those tests. Morgellons is an extremely rare condition, just a few in a hundred thousand have it. The chances are you have something else, which the doctor will be able to treat.
Then, if you get no success and think you may have the condition, there's the Morgellons Disease Foundation which is a patients advocacy organization for this condition. I'd get in touch with them or visit their facebook page or go to their conferences to find out more - it's a whole lot better than getting advice from strangers on internet forums or science blogs or quora at least.
So this answer is not meant for patient support. It is just about the scientific aspect of this. Could it be that the researchers are right, and that there is a connection with Lyme disease? How did we get into this situation where the medical establishment is sure that there is no connection, and yet this group of researchers and many patients are convinced that there is?
I don't have Morgellons myself and at the time I first wrote this material I didn’t know anyone with it. Since then of course I have been contacted both via comments and privately by Morgellons suffers. This is from an article I wrote on Science20
CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL (CDC) SURVEY
At first, you get the impression that it was all cleared up by a big survey published in 2012. Their conclusions were so definite you wonder why anyone could doubt it.
This was an initiative of the Obama administration. Before 2012, then there was a variety of views on this, with several different scientific hypotheses being explored, and it wasn't yet considered a "closed book" by the medical establishment. After a lot of agitation by patient advocacy groups, then a large study begin, in 2008, concluding in 2012. But when this came out, it was a great disappointment to those who thought it is a real disease, because the researchers came out conclusively in favour of the delusion hypothesis.
This is what they wrote:
"This comprehensive study of an unexplained apparent dermopathy demonstrated no infectious cause and no evidence of an environmental link. There was no indication that it would be helpful to perform additional testing for infectious diseases as a potential cause. Future efforts should focus on helping patients reduce their symptoms through careful attention to treatment of co-existing medical, including psychiatric conditions, that might be contributing to their symptoms."
You can understand that this seemed to close the book on the subject for the medical establishment.
However if you look at the study a bit more closely, then it's not quite so clear a matter as it first seems.
The main problem the CDC study faced is the low prevalence of the disease, only 3.65 cases per 100,000 of the population they studied. Also at the time they did the study there were many different competing hypotheses about what caused Morgellons, so they didn’t have a single hypothesis to test.
In that four year period, after spending hundreds of thousands of pounds on the survey, they found a total of 41 patients with the condition. More than ten thousand dollars per patient was spent on this survey - doing something like this is an expensive undertaking.
They themselves point out several limitations to their study. Also some of the researchers who were already researching into the condition at the time of the survey offered several criticisms of it.
Harry Schone summarizes these criticisms in one of the sections of his University College Londonthesis "Learning from Morgellons" (for a History and Philosophy of Science Masters)
"It is indeed true that the CDC were being cautious, that they found no positive evidence for the claims made by Morgellons sufferers, but it does not mean that the study can go without critical appraisal. Although expensive and lengthy, the research only clinically evaluated 41 people. Furthermore, since the population was selected by criteria other than self-identification it has been argued by critics of the study that some of those included did not have or even consider themselves to have Morgellons. The validity of these criticisms may rest on somewhat pedantic points, but what is certainly true is that an awful lot of reading between the lines has been passed off as something more substantial."
See Learning from Morgellons, Harry Quinn Schone, Masters thesis for UCL (University College London), see Harry Schone
And if you go and read the report itself, then they also point out limitations in their own report. Amongst other issues they point out that there was no clear diagnostic test for the condition or established tests for it, so leading to possibilities of reporting biases and misclassification. Also, they weren't able to follow the patients over a long period of time.
The paper itself is not nearly so conclusive in tone as the summary of it might suggest.
This is what they say at the end of the discussion section:
We were not able to conclude based on this study whether this unexplained dermopathy represents a new condition, as has been proposed by those who use the term Morgellons, or wider recognition of an existing condition such as delusional infestation, with which it shares a number of clinical and epidemiologic features. We found little on biopsy that was treatable, suggesting that the diagnostic yield of skin biopsy, without other supporting clinical evidence, may be low. However, we did find among our study population co-existing conditions for which there are currently available therapies (drug use, somatization). These data should assist clinicians in tailoring their diagnostic and treatment approaches to patients who may be affected. In the absence of an established cause or treatment, patients with this unexplained dermopathy may benefit from receipt of standard therapies for co-existing medical conditions and/or those recommended for similar conditions such delusions infestation
That doesn't read to me like a paper that completely closes the book on the topic, leaving no possibility for any future research on it.
For details see the discussion section of the Plos One paper.
THE NEW HYPOTHESIS, A CONNECTION WITH CHRONIC LYME DISEASE
At the time of the CDC report, there were many competing scientific hypotheses for Morgellons. So the CDC were quite right to say that there was no single clear diagnostic criteria to use, or tests.
However, now it seems that the researchers have converged on a single hypothesis. Which seems, scientifically, quite a reasonable one. The Mayo Clinic Page page about Morgellons refers to this group of researchers
There are maybe a dozen or so researchers involved in this research. But one of the main proponents of this hypothesis is Marianne J. Middelveen, MDes, a Veterinary Microbiologist from Alberta, Canada. She made a connection with a disease of cattle, called Bovine Digital dermatitiswhich has similar symptoms - and in that case, it is well established that there are microfilaments of keratin and collagen which form beneath the skin.
She analysed the filaments that form beneath the skin of sufferers, and found out that these also are made of keratin and collagen.
She also found spirochetes, which are usually associated with Lyme disease in humans.
These get their name because of their spiral shape:
See Borrelia burgdorferi NEU2011 on MicrobeWiki
You can listen to her talk about her researches in the One Radio Network morning show with Patrick Timpone here: Marianne Middelveen, Morgellons Disease
And the main paper is here: "Exploring the association between Morgellons disease and Lyme disease: identification of Borrelia burgdorferi in Morgellons disease patients"
It turns out that Borrelia burgdorferi has a preference for infecting fibroblasts and keratinocytes which are cells in your body, in the epithelium, that create keratin and collagen - components of your skin. So they are a part of a healthy skin.
Her hypothesis is that the spirochetes hides from the antibiotics inside the cells that produce these materials and this can influence gene expression (which genes get turned on or off), so something goes wrong with gene regulation, leading to these cells producing too much collagen and keratin, creating these fibres in the skin, which then cause the irritations and sores. They may be able to hide in these cells for many years on end, before something changes and triggers an outbreak of Morgellons.
But some patients continue to get symptoms for many years afterwards. The suggestion is that the spirochetes can sometimes hide from the antibiotics, and then continue to cause problems long after the disease is normally considered to be cured.
This has the same issue as Morgellons, that the treatment for chronic lyme disease is a long term course of antibiotics. Most medical authorities advise against this method of treating it. See Lyme Disease Controversy (wikipedia)..
The problem here is that though the mechanisms of persistence in Lyme disease are well established in animal studies, dogs mice and rhesus macaques, there is a lot of controversy about whether the same processes happen in humans.
There are two views here, the view of the CDC that humans are different from the animals, and one month of antibiotics will get rid of Lyme disease, and the view of ILADS (the International Lyme and Associated Diseases Society) that persistent lyme disease is a problem.
Marianne Middelveen says she has chronic lyme disease herself (though she doesn't have the symptoms of Morgellons). As a microbiologist she can culture it in a special growth medium, and (after maybe a month) she can see the Lyme bacterium swimming around, and do DNA studies, and molecular stains and techniques to definitely identify it as Borrelia Burgdorferi (they use antibiotics to eliminate other microbes).
WHY DIDN'T THE CDC FIND THE SPIROCHETES?
In their 2015 paper, Middelveen and her co researchers say that the CDC study had limitations which could explain why they didn't find the spirochetes
"The search for spirochetal pathogens in that study was limited to Warthin-Starry staining on a small number of tissue samples and commercial two-tiered serological Lyme disease testing as interpreted by the CDC Lyme surveillance criteria. It should be noted that only two of the patients in our study group were positive for Lyme disease based on the CDC Lyme surveillance criteria and yet Borrelia spirochetes were readily detectable in this group of 25 MD patients."
They attribute their success in detecting Borrelia burgdorferi and closely related spirochetes to several factors
WHAT ABOUT THE COTTON FIBRES FOUND BY THE CDC?
The authors agree that the cotton fibres extracted by the CDC are unrelated to the disease, and are probably from clothes and swabs. However they say that the fibres they study are a different phenomenon. They are almost microscopic in many people, 10 microns to 40 microns wide. They may require 60 times magnification to be seen clearly, and can be found beneath unbroken skin. The fibres they found were made of keratin and collagen, not cotton. See Exploring the association between Morgellons disease and Lyme disease: identification of Borrelia burgdorferi in Morgellons disease patients,
WHAT ABOUT THE DELUSIONS?
Some of the patients do start to get many different ideas about their condition and may think they are infected by insects, or other things.
Here I'm summarizing some earlier papers on the topic. The researchers agreed with the CDC that these incorrect beliefs can occur, but differ in their understanding of the cause / effect connection. Based on patient reports and observations, they believe that the physical symptoms occur first, and the psychosomatic disorders follow later.
Lyme disease is also implicated in some neurological conditions so that may also be a factor. In more detail, the ILADS chronic lyme disease checklist for preliminary diagnosis for physicians lists amongst possible symptoms of chronic lyme disease including confusion, difficulty thinking, poor short term memory and attention, disorientation, speech errors such as wrong words and misspeaking, mood swings, anxiety and panic attacks, also:
(Note, there are many other symptoms in the check list such as joint pain, fevers, etc and some patients will have some and some will have others.
To be diagnosed as chronic lyme disease according to these guidelines - the illness also has to be present for at least a year, must have major neurological effects such as encephalitis, meningitis etc or active arthritis - and the patient must still have active infection with B. burgdorferi even if previously treated with antibiotics)
In particular, in support of their view that the condition may cause the higher prevalence of delusions rather than the other way around, these researchers say that they found no evidence of a higher occurrence of pre-existing psychosomatic disorders in this group of patients than there is in the population at large (0.03%), which in their view distinguishes this group of patients from usual cases of delusional parasitosis.
LEADING EDGE RESEARCH
It is leading edge research. Just a few studies by a small group of researchers. Following standard scientific practice, then researches like this need to be confirmed by other researchers in other studies. And at this stage, it could as easily be refuted as confirmed.
But - with most researchers convinced that the CDC report has "closed the book" on this topic area, research in this area is bound to be slow.
Perhaps their report has sometimes been used in ways that suggested it is more conclusive than it really was.
In this situation, surely we need to continue this research. If it did turn out that these researchers are right after all, then it is awful if patients who have a real disease are just being treated for anxiety and neurosis.
On the other hand it is also pretty bad I think that some patients feel they have to self medicate with antibiotics made for animals, without the precautions needed to make sure they are not harming their health in the process.
Long term use of antibiotics has potential to harm your internal organs. It is not something to do on your own, you must get a doctor to do it for you, and monitor the effects closely to make sure you are not being damaged. But the doctor faces the issue of possible malpractice if it is not an accepted treatment. Some doctors are willing to do this kind of treatment for chronic lyme disease even though it is controversial.
And if this treatment is actually not doing them any good, this also maybe can be shown conclusively in future research. The CDC reports has enough caveats in it that you can understand patients and researchers not being convinced that it has totally closed the book.
And maybe some other treatment found in its place if it is a real condition, once they understand it better. Hopefully more research will help with all this.
ANNUAL CONFERENCE ON MORGELLONS
For those who are really keen to find out more, there's an annual three day conference for researchers to present and discuss their findings, including investigations of this hypothesis of a Lyme disease connection. It is held in Austin, Texas, and the eighth conference in 2015 hadtwelve presenters.
This is sponsored by the Charles Holman Morgellons Disease Foundation, which is a 501(c)3nonprofit organization committed to "advocacy and philanthropy in the battle against Morgellons Disease" Its director is Cindy Casey-Holman and the organization is named after her deceased husband Charles Holman. It also has a facebook page.
The Morgellons Research Foundation was the primary patient advocacy group in the 2000s. This was founded by Mary Leitao, a biologist from Pennsylvania, but is no longer active.
See also:
FIND OUT MORE
Mystery Of Morgellons - Disease Or Delusion - Scientific Hypothesis Of Connection With Lyme Disease
which also has many other cites.
DON’T BELIEVE WIKIPEDIA ON THIS TOPIC
If you go to the Wikipedia article on Morgellons then it just says categorically that it is delusional parasitosis. Do be aware that articles on wikipedia are sometimes very biased. (Though many others are excellent).
I’ve been trying for some time to get them to change it. I tried to get them to add this paragraph somewhere in the article:
"Not all scientists agree that the CDC closes the book on Morgellons. There is research still continuing by a number of scientists based on the hypothesis that it is a disease similar to bovine Digital dermatitis which is a known disease of cattle. These researchers report discovery of spirochetes in the wounds and fibres containing a mix of keratin and collagen as for bovine dermatitis. [cites]. This research is minority view and controversial."
But they were having none of it. You can see the discussion on the talk page if you want to see how it went. I stopped this time after another wikipedia editor (not an admin) threatened to get me topic banned if I continue to present my reasons for changing the article on its talk page. They could have done that by claiming that I was promoting fringe science in a medical article, which can get you a swift topic ban on Wikipedia. The admins that judge those cases are never specialist in the topic area, don’t follow up cites, make their judgements swiftly, and will just accept what the majority of editors on the talk page say about whether it is fringe science. For more on this see the section on Morgellons in my answer to Is Wikipedia biased?
WARNING - PLEASE DON’T TAKE PART IN THE MORGELLONS TALK PAGE DEBATE IN WIKIPEDIA AS A RESULT OF READING THIS
If any of you reading this feel tempted to try to join in that debate, please don’t. Wikipedia has a strict rules against canvasing and if anyone joins in as a result of reading what I say here they will fall under canvasing also perhaps proxy editing, getting both you and me in trouble. So I have to warn all readers of my articles not to get involved.
But - I can without any problems just tell you that in my view the Morgellons article on Wikipedia is very biased, presenting the CDC report as if it closed the book when it certainly didn’t, as you can see from this answer.
SEE ALSO
(slightly edited version of my answer to Robert Walker's answer to How do I get infected with Morgellons disease? )
The material in this answer comes from my Science20 article: Mystery Of Morgellons - Disease Or Delusion - Scientific Hypothesis Of Connection With Lyme Disease which has many cites to the academic medical literature which you can follow up to find out more.
That in turn originated as an article I wrote for wikipedia but they merged it away and after trying very hard to get them to include some of the material, I gave up and then I wrote this article instead - of course in a more entertaining science blog fashion.
Yes in many areas it is. In other areas it is fine.
For instance it is pretty good on Climate Change which is a tricky area to summarize. I’m particularly involved in science so in that topic area t...
(more)Yes in many areas it is. In other areas it is fine.
For instance it is pretty good on Climate Change which is a tricky area to summarize. I’m particularly involved in science so in that topic area they do have some excellent articles. But others are really awful. I also have one example from religion, Buddhism.
I’m not answering here about systemic bias. I can understand it would have that also. But what I’ve noticed far more is that different articles have different biases just depending on their editors.
I think the most vulnerable articles here are the ones with fewer editors. I can give a few examples to show the problem. I can answer this as a long term wikipedia editor myself, so this is about the problems editors face who try to correct biases in wikipedia - they often fail. I have been told about similar experiences of other editors.
MICROBIAL LIFE ON THE SURFACE OF MARS
First, I often write science articles for Science20 on life on Mars and planetary protection issues. Mars is of special interest for the search for life. Until 2008 most scientists thought that if there is present day life there, it has to be deep underground because the surface is a near vacuum.
In 2008 the Phoenix lander made the surprising discovery of droplets of liquid that formed on its legs, grew and fell off, seem to be deliquescing salts thrown up during the landing. This got scientists interested in the question of whether there could be habitats on the surface of Mars and they have come up with many that are possible in theory, and also some lifeforms that could survive just using the 100% night time humidity without water at all.
So, this is one of the biggest topic areas in astrobiology today. Could Mars have present day life? The possibility is good enough so that when they discovered possibly seasonal changes on Mount Sharp that may be due to liquid salty brines flowing, this lead to questions about how close they can drive with Curiosity - since it is not sufficiently sterilized to approach a habitable region on the surface of Mars.
But go to the Life on Mars article in wikipedia and this is what you read.
Although pure liquid water does not appear at the surface of Mars, there is conclusive evidence of hydrated perchlorate brine flows on recurring slope lineae, based on spectrometer readings of the darkened areas of slopes. Astrobiologists are keen to find out more, as not much is known about these brines. Some geologists think that brines may provide a potential habitat for terrestrial salt and cold-loving microorganisms (halophile psychrophilic). Several biologists argue that although chemically important, thin films of transient liquid brine are not likely to provide suitable sites for life, as the activity of water on salty films, the temperature, or both are less than the biological thresholds across the entire Martian surface and shallow subsurface.
The damaging effect of ionizing radiation on cellular structure is one of the prime limiting factors on the survival of life in potential astrobiological habitats. Even at a depth of 2 meters beneath the surface, any microbes would probably be dormant, cryopreserved by the current freezing conditions, and so metabolically inactive and unable to repair cellular degradation as it occurs. Also, solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation proved particularly devastating for the survival of cold-resistant microbes under simulated surface conditions on Mars, as UV radiation was readily and easily able to penetrate the salt-organic matrix that the bacterial cells were embedded in. In addition, NASA's Mars Exploration Program states that life on the surface of Mars is unlikely, given the presence of superoxides that break down organic (carbon-based) molecules on which life is based.
The first paragraph there is more or less accurate, though not very well expressed. Nobody knows if the water activity is suitable for life in the warm seasonal flows yet. You can devise mixtures of salts that would be okay but the question is what salts actually occur there, and they they don’t know.
So, it doesn’t really explain that properly. It is not a difference of opinion between some biologists who point out that water activity is too low for life against others who ignore those objections. All the astrobiologists agree that a low enough level of water activity would make it uninhabitable at least for life that is like Earth life. Rather it’s a difference in opinion about how cold and or salty the water is likely to be in these potential habitats on Mars. Also there are many other potential habitats suggested, not just the RSLs.
The second paragraph though is really poor. The ionizing radiation levels on the surface of Mars are the same as those inside the ISS and are not capable of sterilizing humans, never mind microbes on short timescales. It is indeed true that over millions of years the ionizing radiation does sterilize but only if the life is dormant. This is an old argument from before astrobiologists realized that there might be habitats for present day life on the surface. It is wrong to apply this argument to those habitats because obviously they would contain viable reproducing self repairing microbes, not millions of years old dormant microbes.
As for UV light, it is just light and is blocked by a shadow, or a paper thin layer of dust. They omit mention of the experiments in algae that are able to survive in simulated Mars conditions in partial shade.
There are many papers on this topic and an entire conference on the “Present Day Habitability of Mars” which focused mainly on the habitability of the surface of Mars.
I actually wrote an entire article for wikipedia on the present day habitability of Mars, which summarizes some of the main research done in the field. You can read it here
They would not publish the article. So I published it on my science blog instead and as a kindle booklet and have had good comments about it by astrobiologist friends who even say they find it useful themselves :).
It gives you an idea of how much material is kept out of Wikipedia on the basis of this decision that present day surface life is impossible, based on a spurious argument by a wikipedia editor who doesn’t understand the topic area well. In this case the editor didn’t try to get me banned, and it is not a community decision. Instead, every time I comment on the talk page for Life on Mars suggesting they change it, giving cites to the latest academic research or news stories, he hides my comments and posts a troll icon saying “Don’t feed the trolls” to warn off other wikipedia editors from interacting with me.
The reason they got confused there is because ionizing radiation is deadly for dormant life on Mars over time periods of millions of years. But at the same time, it is not at all harmful over time periods of years or centuries. I don’t know if they are unable to understand this or if it is just an excuse to keep the material out of wikipedia for some other reason.
For details see UV & Cosmic Radiation On Mars - Why They Aren't Lethal For The "Swimming Pools For Bacteria"
Presumably if one of our rovers actually finds life on Mars they will change the article. I’m not sure if anything much else would lead to them accepting new material on the topic.
This editor watches all the articles where it would make sense to mention life on Mars so it’s no solution to try to mention it somewhere else instead.
See the talk page here: Talk:Life on Mars - Wikipedia (you have to click Show on the “Not a forum or spam” and do that twice to get to the troll icon)..
Or more recently here, I tried to get them to include a mention of the RNA world hypothesis for the tiny cell like structures in the Mars meteorite ALH84001 - though researchers have found ways they could form without life, they haven’t proven that it is not life and there are researchers who still think they could be RNA world cells - I edited the article to include that hypothesis and this editor removed the mention of the RNA world hypothesis from my edit. On no good grounds at all as it is cited peer reviewed research. Their arguments are just ad hominem that it needs to be deleted because I’m a troll. See the very disfunctional conversation here: Talk:Allan Hills 84001 - Wikipedia
CURRENTLY SERVING A BAN ON THE TOPIC OF THE FOUR NOBLE TRUTHS
Then, there’s a particularly worrying trend, that recently some editors on wikipedia are quick at just topic banning editors they don’t agree with, just for expressing their views on a talk page, not even for editing the articles. And the admins approve those bans.
I am currently just reaching the end of a six month topic ban for an episode on the Four Noble Truths article just for speaking forthrightly and honestly on the talk page about what I consider to be serious mistakes and omissions on that article.
One of the mistakes is that they say that the four noble truths (central teaching in Buddhism) were not taught by the historical Buddha. This is a minority view of very few scholars. I tried to get them to mention the many other views on the historicity of the Buddhist teachings. I just said that it needs this on the talk page, never tried to edit the article itself.
I also challenged the article on another couple of points, but you’d need some background in the main Buddhist teachings before I could say what they were. You can read more here: Buddhist sources on the Four Noble Truths by Robert Walker on Some ideas about Buddhist teachings
The outcome was that I was topic banned and forbidden from mentioning the “Four Noble Truths” anywhere on wikipedia for six months. That is just for answering back to all the reasoning the other editors gave on the talk page for keeping the article as is.
Wikipedia is as a result inconsistent with itself as the Pali Canon page still presents the entire range of scholarly views, exactly as I wanted them to present it on the four noble truths article.
Quite a few scholars actually think that the teachings may date back to the time of the Buddha in their entirety, memorized in a similar way to the way the very ancient Veda Indian sutras were memorized. See Origins of the Buddhist Sutras - were they the Teachings of the Buddha? by Robert Walker on Some ideas about Buddhist teachings
I joke with my friends that editors like this have become like the Borg. They want to assimilate you to their views. If you resist being assimilated, they topic ban you.
I also did this “wanted” poster for fun after that episode, after I’d been topic banned:
c MORGELLONS ARTICLE
This article just says that Morgellons is a form of delusional parasitosis. I wanted them to add this paragraph somewhere:
"Not all scientists agree that the CDC closes the book on Morgellons. There is research still continuing by a number of scientists based on the hypothesis that it is a disease similar to bovine Digital dermatitis which is a known disease of cattle. These researchers report discovery of spirochetes in the wounds and fibres containing a mix of keratin and collagen as for bovine dermatitis. [cites]. This research is minority view and controversial."
The article mentions the hypothesis of a connection with Lyme disease - but in a throwaway sentence along with a list of conspiracy theories and cited to an article in the Atlantic of all things. What’s more, the cite is to a news article which in turn is based on google searches and summarizing what people said in online forums and youtube videos. How is that any better than just doing a google search yourself and summarizing what they are saying about it in online forums? If anything journalists tend to sensationalize such things.
Why the other editors there think that this is a reasonable cite while Marrianne Middleveen’s research and Harry Schone’s MSc thesis for University College London should not be mentioned, goodness knows.
For more about this see my answer to How do I get infected with Morgellons disease? and my answer to What research is being done on the potential pandemic of Morgellons?
This is another example where another editor threatened to ban me just for speaking on the talk page of the article. Even for mentioning my views on the article on my own wikipedia talk page! Said they were going to take me to AE and expected it to be easy to ban me.
They could have done that by claiming that I was promoting fringe science in a medical article, which can get you a swift topic ban on Wikipedia. The admins that judge those cases are never specialist in the topic area, don’t follow up cites, make their judgements swiftly, and will just accept what the majority of editors on the talk page say about whether it is fringe science.
They backed down when I hid my comments on my talk page critical of the article and told them I would not be continuing the conversation there or present my views on the article even on my own talk page.
It is not an idle threat as the very same editor who made that threat has already taken another editor to Arbitration Enforcement to try to get them banned just for speaking honestly and forthrightly on the talk page of another article on wikipedia. They were not banned - the decision on their case says that they have voluntarily stopped editing wikipedia for six months. If they hadn’t done that I’m sure the admins would have approved a topic ban. All that just because they are forthtright in saying things that the other editor disagrees with on a talk page.
This is their comment: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wi...
"I'm honest, forthright, and speak what i see. In editing articles i've improved greatly since i began, and i think i understand the policies well. I edit according to policies. I speak honestly. I want good article -- nothing more. I want good articles that follow the best sources.
Other people have issues that i speak to problems in Wikipedia. Are you going to shoot me for speaking? If so then it's on your hands."
Jytdog is also the same editor (not an admin) who was involved in this bizarre case of Clarawood123 who was warned that it is a conflict of interest to write about the place where you live! Especially if you happen to have property in the area (e.g. own a house there) which would turn it into a financial conflict of interest, according to Jytdog - now - possibly they thought that Clarawood123 was a property developer - but if so - they never thought to ask them to see if they were or not before voting to ban them from writing about the Clarawood housing estate in Ireland. Here in the UK then estates like that are typically built by the government rather than by private developers: Robert Walker's answer to What are the most frustrating aspects of being a Wikipedia editor?
PLANETARY PROTECTION
I first got involved in controversy by writing about planetary protection issues for human missions to Mars in the Human mission to Mars article where it appeared as a “Concerns” section. I didn’t start that section, it was started by others but was very short. I got involved when I noticed a request to expand it which I did. I discussed my edits on the talk page and at that time the other editors were happy with my work.
I also contributed an article on back contamination risks for a sample returned from Mars to Earth. After it was deleted from Wikipedia I started up a blog on Science20. And one of my early posts there was just a direct copy of the article they deleted from wikipedia which I included as reference material. Mars Sample Receiving Facility and sample containment
As you can see it is written in encyclopedic style, has loads of citations, and I did not present any particular view there. I cover the whole range of views on the topic with cites, from those who think there is no need for any precautions at all to those who thing that more precautions are needed than the ones suggested in the official studies of the topic.
My own view has changed several times and I’m not sure what it was then, but currently my view is that the sample should be returned to an unmanned spacecraft in a very high orbit above geostationary orbit for preliminary study, and any material returned to Earth should be sterilized until we know what is in it. This view is never mentioned in the article as I believe it is original to me.
Anyway, wikipedia editors lead by one particular person got very worked up about that article on Mars sample return back contamination issues. He claimed that by writing it for wikipedia I was trying to scare people and that I was propagating nonsense pseudoscience ideas. He also said he thought I needed mental treatment.
None of that is true of course. The article summarizes material from the United States National Research Council, the European Science Foundation, the Office of Planetary Protection and other mainstream studies.
Why do they get so worked up about this on wikipedia? The thing is that if you need to protect Earth from Mars microbes, it could potentially mean you can’t land humans on the surface as they would take the microbes with them back to Earth when they return. So that then might cast doubt on whether we should send humans to the Mars surface which many space enthusiasts are keen to do. So - it doesn’t matter how highly cited it is, even if it is an ESF or NRC study, they just don’t want to read it and don’t want to see it in wikipedia and are easily persuaded that it is fringe science.
Then in the forward direction, the problem is that if you introduce life to Mars, it is irreversible, and it could mess up major discoveries in biology, perhaps as significant to our understanding of biology as the discovery of the double helix. Planetary protection is a central topic originally started by the likes of Carl Sagan and it is central to all exploration to Mars with planetary protection officers in the US and ESA for instance.
If you land humans on Mars it is probably the end of planetary protection, especially if they crash. So that again is unwelcome news to those who want to land humans on Mars. They tend to read and share articles and reports that suggest it will not be a problem and ignore and don’t share articles that say it could potentially be a problem. As an example if any of you reading this are Mars colonization enthusiasts, there’s a good chance you know of the article “Over protection of Mars” which puts forward the strong view that humans on Mars have no planetary protection issues - but how many of you have heard of the rebuttal by the present and past planetary protection officers “Appropriate protection of Mars” in the very next issue of Nature magazine? It just doesn’t get shared by Mars colonization enthusiasts or even mentioned by them.
I do indeed have a strong personal view here, that we should send humans to Mars orbit and to the Moon but decide whether to land on Mars only at a later stage once we understand the planet better. I’ve done a number of articles on this:
President Obama, Why Humans On Mars Right Now Are Bad For Science
Mars Is Nothing Like The New World - Easier To Grow Your Tomatoes On Mount Everest
But I would never write like that for wikipedia
It is possible to have strong views and still write encyclopedic material and that is what I did in that Concerns section. Of course I didn’t present my own views. Instead I presented the views in various reliable sources, such as those two studies, one by the National Research Council and the other by the European Space foundation.
The editors believed him when he said that what I wanted to get included was minority view and fringe. It wasn't at all. It was mainstream. But of course none of the admins judging the cases is going to read those long documents about the risks associated with returning samples from Mars and ways that one could deal with those risks. So they just believed him that what I was presenting there was fringe. The article for deletion was a complete farce, it was judged by editors who had never done a single edit of the astronomical sections of wikipedia and most of it was actually a discussion of a version of the article as written by the editor who proposed the deletion! He edited the article first, removed most of the highly cited material from it, then rushed it to an Article for Deletion at that point, and edit warred, not letting me edit it until half way through the discussion so most of the votes to delete it were on his version of the article, not mine.
The same editor who deleted my back contamination article there - after getting other editors worked up by saying I needed mental treatment and was scaring people and drawing analogies with the Andromeda strain - which they all believed - went on to say “I can’t bear to see these Concerns sections any more” and after successfully deleting my article about back contamination risks for samples from Mars, took that as a mandate to delete all the planetary protection material from manned missions on Mars and elsewhere in wikipedia, as well as a lot of other material about issues with manned missions to Mars. They were either turned into “challenges to be overcome” or deleted completely.
As a result, the Human mission to Mars article now doesn’t have a Concerns section, just a Challenges section, and this is all that it says on the topic of planetary protection for human missions:
Eventually they were stopped by another editor when they tried to get rid of the main Planetary protection article which they hacked about and replaced by nonsense stuff (if you know anything about the subject) not even to do with planetary protection.
This other editor stopped them and I was able to restore that article to a decent shape again. But he warned me that if I start adding planetary protection sections back to the other articles I’m likely to encounter the same problems as before. So I have mainly kept my editing to that one article plus the linked Interplanetary contamination article.
DRAMA BEHIND THE SCENES
If you are just a reader of wikipedia you probably have no idea how much drama goes on behind the scenes. But this is not at all unusual. There are huge wars going on there, sometimes about the most minor things (metaphorical wars only of course).
When you read an article there, it might well be the result of a delicate compromise - reached with careful mediation after a long battle raging for years over the choice of a single word sometimes. For a humorous look on this see Wikipedia: Lamest Edit Wars
.
Container of gasoline? petrol? fossil fuel? gas?
One of many topics that lead to huge behind the scenes battles in wikipedia.
STATE OF FLUX
But it means that many articles are in a state of flux. Come back a few months later and it may say something totally different. Sometimes it is just a minor detail like petrol / gasoline. But sometimes it may be a complete change in slant or the article may be so changed that it is unrecognizable. If you want something from the old article - it is still there, you can go back through its edit history to find the old version, but the new article may have no points of resemblance at all with the old one. Same length, maybe even shorter, just totally different.
Some articles are excellent. I use Wikipedia a lot myself. It is really good on many topics to do with space flight and astronomy (apart from life on Mars and planetary protection for human missions obviously). There are many other topics where it is really good.
But you need to be aware that any article you are reading could potentially be biased, presenting only one view on a complex debate for instance. If you want to see if it has been controversial, it’s worth checking the talk page and the talk page archives.
If there is some fact in the article that you want to know if it is correct - never rely on wikipedia as your primary source if it is important to you. The one good thing about wikipedia is that everything is cited, or should be (not always is) so you can read the cites. Quite often you find the cite contradicts what the article says it says. Wikipedia editors can make mistakes reading an article as much as anyone and once a mistake has got into an article, it’s rare for other editors to re-read the article to double check it. Except when it is a high profile article of course.
PLEASE DON’T TAKE PART IN ANY OF THE MENTIONED DISPUTES
BTW if any of you reading this are wikipedia editors, please don’t take part in any of the disputes I just mentioned as a result of reading this answer. I have to be very careful about that. Wikipedia ha a strict policy that you can’t canvas off wiki or encourage others to edit articles in your favour. If anyone reading this edits wikipedia to try to fix these issues I just mentioned as a result of this answer, especially in the direction that I obviously favour in this answer, it would be seen as canvasing.
The aim here is just to give examples to show how wikipedia is biased. As for how to fix that, I don’t know what the solution is. It’s a great shame I think. The wikipedia guidelines are good, I have no problem with those.
Thanks!
AVOIDING DRAMA ON WIKIPEDIA
There are things you can do to reduce the chance of this happening to you. Mainly - to realize that it helps a lot to have many editor friends working on the same topic.
You can’t do that once a controversy arises as that then is canvasing, not legitimately anyway. But it is perfectly reasonable to get together a lot of experts in a topic area and encourage them to work on wikipedia together. Try to get several enthusiastic editors working together, people you know and are friendly with, or experts in your topic area.
If a half dozen of you have worked on a new article, say, it is very very hard for an editor who is opposed to you to just demolish it. They would need good well argued reasons. Couldn’t just topic ban you, telling the admins you are a trouble maker, or hide all your posts on the talk page. All your colleagues who are experts in the topic area will see right through it and come in and support your material and support you legitimately in any attempt to ban you as well - they can join in those cases because they also are involved in editing the article. Wikibullying editors would probably just not try in that situation.
If I’d done that I could have saved a lot of trouble. It can be hard to get people to join you in editing wikipedia. It’s time consuming and also they may have had bad experiences with it in the past. But if you can do it, then you can work much more effectively together than as an individual there.
And if the article remains biased and you can’t do anything about it, well that’s a good time to take a break, stop and go somewhere else and find another outlet for your writing, e.g write a blog or write on quora.
More on this, see How to edit wikipedia without getting into trouble by Robert Walker on Random things
And about the sometimes “Alice through the Looking Glass” experiences of wikipedia editors: Robert Walker's answer to What are the most frustrating aspects of being a Wikipedia editor?
JUSTICE ON WIKIPEDIA FOR PROCESSES SUCH AS TOPIC BANS, BLOCKS ETC DOESN’T WORK LIKE A COURT OF LAW
I think the main thing here is that wikipedia admins are not trained in jurisprudence. They are just ordinary folk like you and me meting out justice and have no idea about e.g. the need to interrogate witnesses or the accused and accuser carefully and find out what the real story is before passing judgement.
Instead, my impression from all the arbitration cases / community judgements I've seen is that they judge very rapidly, in minutes, on the basis of instant gut feeling which is often wrong. That of course is not what real judges do. There are normally lots of checks and balances to stop that sort of thing from happening in a real process of justice.
I think something similar is needed in wikipedia to the processes of a court of law. Perhaps even with a judge and then the admins as the jury to judge the case guided by a judge with experience in jurisprudence - and with prosecutors and solicitors for the defense. Of course not with all the frills of a proper legal case. But something or other to take the place of all those things that are found to be necessary in ordinary justice.
But any attempt to do so would meet a lot of opposition from the admins as it would make their job harder - they are of course all unpaid volunteers doing this in their own time in order to improve wikipedia.
Wikipedia is very wealthy though, they have tens of millions of dollars worth of funds to dispose of. They could for instance afford to employ a full time judge, no problem at all. Or someone with jurisprudence experience to overview the arbitration cases and keep an eye on the processes there from a genuinely neutral and expert point of view. I don’t know if anything of such nature could work and be found consistent with wikipedia ideals?
WHAT YOU CAN DO ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW!
If you are a reasonably experienced wikipedian, you can do a lot to help by working as an uninvolved commentator and voter on OCCASIONAL cases in WP:ANI. and other boards that permit participation by general editors.
See: What you can do about the Alice through the Looking Glass world of Wikipedia Editing - Right Now
See also Ideas for wikipedia reform for the long term
See also my answer to What are the most frustrating aspects of being a Wikipedia editor?
As the other answers say, chemtrails is a conspiracy theory. Contrails are real. Airplanes contrails are like high cirrus - depending on the weather conditions they can persist for long periods of ...
(more)As the other answers say, chemtrails is a conspiracy theory. Contrails are real. Airplanes contrails are like high cirrus - depending on the weather conditions they can persist for long periods of time. I think it’s not surprising that some Morgellons suffers might look everywhere for a solution as the “party line” is that it is a delusion. When you are suffering severe pain, as they say they do, and you have no previous history of mental illness or delusions, it’s going to be very hard to accept a diagnosis of delusion. But Morgellons may be a real disease. The CDC definitely did not “close the book” and the few remaining researchers in this topic have all converged on a new hypothesis which wasn’t around at the time of the survey. This is the hypothesis that it is related to digital dermatitis, a disease of cattle. If so then it is caused by spirochetes, similar causal agent to Lyme disease though it is a different disease. You can protect yourself from it in that case by following the same precautions as for Lyme disease of removing ticks and going to the doctor right away if you get a circular rash. For more on this see my answer to How do I get infected with Morgellons disease?
Okay - the background to this is that nobody has proved that Morgellons is delusional, despite many journalist articles and even the wikipedia page on the topic saying definitively that it is a del...
(more)Okay - the background to this is that nobody has proved that Morgellons is delusional, despite many journalist articles and even the wikipedia page on the topic saying definitively that it is a delusion. Also there is new research which suggests that it is actually related to digital dermatitis, a disease of cattle. The few remaining researchers are all converged on this as their main hypothesis. I will go into this in a bit more detail in a moment.
If this is right then the precautions are the same as for Lyme disease though the details of the disease are different. The main thing is to be careful to remove ticks immediately if you are bitten by them. If you do it within a few hours of getting the tick, apparently the chance of getting Lymes is minimal. I use the O'Tom tick twister myself - its a really easy way to remove them far easier than tweezers.
Watch out for a spreading circular rash like this.
If you see anything like that, go to the doctor right away. Lyme disease - and Morgellons also if it is connected - can be stopped right in its tracks so long as you get a strong dose of antibiotics - and not just any antibiotic, it has to be a particular type of very strong antibiotic, as soon as the rash appears. I actually live in a tick area myself and got a rash like this earlier this summer. I went to the doctor, got my medicine and it vanished quickly, within a few days. Of course then you continue to the end of the course of antibiotics.
Also, you can’t be infected by others with Morgellons, if this is the right answer.
For anyone who has Morgellons - if this hypothesis is correct - you may have been in a Lyme disease tick district in the past. If it is right, Morgellons doesn't start up immediately after the tick byte. The spirochetes have to get into the fibroblasts first before they start generating the fibres that cause the problems. It is easy to forget a tick bite and you don't always get the red rash (though I think you usually do) and it is also easy to get a rash and not think much of it and not notice that it is that circular shape or just not know its significance.
So now more on the background.
MEDICAL CAVEAT
Since this is an answer on medicine, I feel I need to give a medical warning. First there are many other conditions that are easily confused with Morgellons (putting aside for one moment the question of whether Morgellons is a disease or a delusional condition). I suggest that if you think you have the condition, that you talk to your doctor first and go through all those tests. Morgellons is an extremely rare condition, just a few in a hundred thousand have it. The chances are you have something else, which the doctor will be able to treat.
Then, if you get no success and think you may have the condition, there's the Morgellons Disease Foundation which is a patients advocacy organization for this condition. I'd get in touch with them or visit their facebook page or go to their conferences to find out more - it's a whole lot better than getting advice from strangers on internet forums or science blogs or quora at least.
So this answer is not meant for patient support. It is just about the scientific aspect of this. Could it be that the researchers are right, and that there is a connection with Lyme disease? How did we get into this situation where the medical establishment is sure that there is no connection, and yet this group of researchers and many patients are convinced that there is?
I don't have Morgellons myself and at the time I first wrote this material I didn’t know anyone with it. Since then of course I have been contacted both via comments and privately by Morgellons suffers. This is from an article I wrote on Science20
CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL (CDC) SURVEY
At first, you get the impression that it was all cleared up by a big survey published in 2012. Their conclusions were so definite you wonder why anyone could doubt it.
This was an initiative of the Obama administration. Before 2012, then there was a variety of views on this, with several different scientific hypotheses being explored, and it wasn't yet considered a "closed book" by the medical establishment. After a lot of agitation by patient advocacy groups, then a large study begin, in 2008, concluding in 2012. But when this came out, it was a great disappointment to those who thought it is a real disease, because the researchers came out conclusively in favour of the delusion hypothesis.
This is what they wrote:
"This comprehensive study of an unexplained apparent dermopathy demonstrated no infectious cause and no evidence of an environmental link. There was no indication that it would be helpful to perform additional testing for infectious diseases as a potential cause. Future efforts should focus on helping patients reduce their symptoms through careful attention to treatment of co-existing medical, including psychiatric conditions, that might be contributing to their symptoms."
You can understand that this seemed to close the book on the subject for the medical establishment.
However if you look at the study a bit more closely, then it's not quite so clear a matter as it first seems.
The main problem the CDC study faced is the low prevalence of the disease, only 3.65 cases per 100,000 of the population they studied. Also at the time they did the study there were many different competing hypotheses about what caused Morgellons, so they didn’t have a single hypothesis to test.
In that four year period, after spending hundreds of thousands of pounds on the survey, they found a total of 41 patients with the condition. More than ten thousand dollars per patient was spent on this survey - doing something like this is an expensive undertaking.
They themselves point out several limitations to their study. Also some of the researchers who were already researching into the condition at the time of the survey offered several criticisms of it.
Harry Schone summarizes these criticisms in one of the sections of his University College Londonthesis "Learning from Morgellons" (for a History and Philosophy of Science Masters)
"It is indeed true that the CDC were being cautious, that they found no positive evidence for the claims made by Morgellons sufferers, but it does not mean that the study can go without critical appraisal. Although expensive and lengthy, the research only clinically evaluated 41 people. Furthermore, since the population was selected by criteria other than self-identification it has been argued by critics of the study that some of those included did not have or even consider themselves to have Morgellons. The validity of these criticisms may rest on somewhat pedantic points, but what is certainly true is that an awful lot of reading between the lines has been passed off as something more substantial."
See Learning from Morgellons, Harry Quinn Schone, Masters thesis for UCL (University College London), see Harry Schone
And if you go and read the report itself, then they also point out limitations in their own report. Amongst other issues they point out that there was no clear diagnostic test for the condition or established tests for it, so leading to possibilities of reporting biases and misclassification. Also, they weren't able to follow the patients over a long period of time.
The paper itself is not nearly so conclusive in tone as the summary of it might suggest.
This is what they say at the end of the discussion section:
We were not able to conclude based on this study whether this unexplained dermopathy represents a new condition, as has been proposed by those who use the term Morgellons, or wider recognition of an existing condition such as delusional infestation, with which it shares a number of clinical and epidemiologic features. We found little on biopsy that was treatable, suggesting that the diagnostic yield of skin biopsy, without other supporting clinical evidence, may be low. However, we did find among our study population co-existing conditions for which there are currently available therapies (drug use, somatization). These data should assist clinicians in tailoring their diagnostic and treatment approaches to patients who may be affected. In the absence of an established cause or treatment, patients with this unexplained dermopathy may benefit from receipt of standard therapies for co-existing medical conditions and/or those recommended for similar conditions such delusions infestation
That doesn't read to me like a paper that completely closes the book on the topic, leaving no possibility for any future research on it.
For details see the discussion section of the Plos One paper.
THE NEW HYPOTHESIS, A CONNECTION WITH CHRONIC LYME DISEASE
At the time of the CDC report, there were many competing scientific hypotheses for Morgellons. So the CDC were quite right to say that there was no single clear diagnostic criteria to use, or tests.
However, now it seems that the researchers have converged on a single hypothesis. Which seems, scientifically, quite a reasonable one. The Mayo Clinic Page page about Morgellons refers to this group of researchers
There are maybe a dozen or so researchers involved in this research. But one of the main proponents of this hypothesis is Marianne J. Middelveen, MDes, a Veterinary Microbiologist from Alberta, Canada. She made a connection with a disease of cattle, called Bovine Digital dermatitiswhich has similar symptoms - and in that case, it is well established that there are microfilaments of keratin and collagen which form beneath the skin.
She analysed the filaments that form beneath the skin of sufferers, and found out that these also are made of keratin and collagen.
She also found spirochetes, which are usually associated with Lyme disease in humans.
These get their name because of their spiral shape:
See Borrelia burgdorferi NEU2011 on MicrobeWiki
You can listen to her talk about her researches in the One Radio Network morning show with Patrick Timpone here: Marianne Middelveen, Morgellons Disease
And the main paper is here: "Exploring the association between Morgellons disease and Lyme disease: identification of Borrelia burgdorferi in Morgellons disease patients"
It turns out that Borrelia burgdorferi has a preference for infecting fibroblasts and keratinocytes which are cells in your body, in the epithelium, that create keratin and collagen - components of your skin. So they are a part of a healthy skin.
Her hypothesis is that the spirochetes hides from the antibiotics inside the cells that produce these materials and this can influence gene expression (which genes get turned on or off), so something goes wrong with gene regulation, leading to these cells producing too much collagen and keratin, creating these fibres in the skin, which then cause the irritations and sores. They may be able to hide in these cells for many years on end, before something changes and triggers an outbreak of Morgellons.
But some patients continue to get symptoms for many years afterwards. The suggestion is that the spirochetes can sometimes hide from the antibiotics, and then continue to cause problems long after the disease is normally considered to be cured.
This has the same issue as Morgellons, that the treatment for chronic lyme disease is a long term course of antibiotics. Most medical authorities advise against this method of treating it. See Lyme Disease Controversy (wikipedia)..
The problem here is that though the mechanisms of persistence in Lyme disease are well established in animal studies, dogs mice and rhesus macaques, there is a lot of controversy about whether the same processes happen in humans.
There are two views here, the view of the CDC that humans are different from the animals, and one month of antibiotics will get rid of Lyme disease, and the view of ILADS (the International Lyme and Associated Diseases Society) that persistent lyme disease is a problem.
Marianne Middelveen says she has chronic lyme disease herself (though she doesn't have the symptoms of Morgellons). As a microbiologist she can culture it in a special growth medium, and (after maybe a month) she can see the Lyme bacterium swimming around, and do DNA studies, and molecular stains and techniques to definitely identify it as Borrelia Burgdorferi (they use antibiotics to eliminate other microbes).
WHY DIDN'T THE CDC FIND THE SPIROCHETES?
In their 2015 paper, Middelveen and her co researchers say that the CDC study had limitations which could explain why they didn't find the spirochetes
"The search for spirochetal pathogens in that study was limited to Warthin-Starry staining on a small number of tissue samples and commercial two-tiered serological Lyme disease testing as interpreted by the CDC Lyme surveillance criteria. It should be noted that only two of the patients in our study group were positive for Lyme disease based on the CDC Lyme surveillance criteria and yet Borrelia spirochetes were readily detectable in this group of 25 MD patients."
They attribute their success in detecting Borrelia burgdorferi and closely related spirochetes to several factors
WHAT ABOUT THE COTTON FIBRES FOUND BY THE CDC?
The authors agree that the cotton fibres extracted by the CDC are unrelated to the disease, and are probably from clothes and swabs. However they say that the fibres they study are a different phenomenon. They are almost microscopic in many people, 10 microns to 40 microns wide. They may require 60 times magnification to be seen clearly, and can be found beneath unbroken skin. The fibres they found were made of keratin and collagen, not cotton. See Exploring the association between Morgellons disease and Lyme disease: identification of Borrelia burgdorferi in Morgellons disease patients,
WHAT ABOUT THE DELUSIONS?
Some of the patients do start to get many different ideas about their condition and may think they are infected by insects, or other things.
Here I'm summarizing some earlier papers on the topic. The researchers agreed with the CDC that these incorrect beliefs can occur, but differ in their understanding of the cause / effect connection. Based on patient reports and observations, they believe that the physical symptoms occur first, and the psychosomatic disorders follow later.
Lyme disease is also implicated in some neurological conditions so that may also be a factor. In more detail, the ILADS chronic lyme disease checklist for preliminary diagnosis for physicians lists amongst possible symptoms of chronic lyme disease including confusion, difficulty thinking, poor short term memory and attention, disorientation, speech errors such as wrong words and misspeaking, mood swings, anxiety and panic attacks, also:
(Note, there are many other symptoms in the check list such as joint pain, fevers, etc and some patients will have some and some will have others.
To be diagnosed as chronic lyme disease according to these guidelines - the illness also has to be present for at least a year, must have major neurological effects such as encephalitis, meningitis etc or active arthritis - and the patient must still have active infection with B. burgdorferi even if previously treated with antibiotics)
In particular, in support of their view that the condition may cause the higher prevalence of delusions rather than the other way around, these researchers say that they found no evidence of a higher occurrence of pre-existing psychosomatic disorders in this group of patients than there is in the population at large (0.03%), which in their view distinguishes this group of patients from usual cases of delusional parasitosis.
LEADING EDGE RESEARCH
It is leading edge research. Just a few studies by a small group of researchers. Following standard scientific practice, then researches like this need to be confirmed by other researchers in other studies. And at this stage, it could as easily be refuted as confirmed.
But - with most researchers convinced that the CDC report has "closed the book" on this topic area, research in this area is bound to be slow.
Perhaps their report has sometimes been used in ways that suggested it is more conclusive than it really was.
In this situation, surely we need to continue this research. If it did turn out that these researchers are right after all, then it is awful if patients who have a real disease are just being treated for anxiety and neurosis.
On the other hand it is also pretty bad I think that some patients feel they have to self medicate with antibiotics made for animals, without the precautions needed to make sure they are not harming their health in the process.
Long term use of antibiotics has potential to harm your internal organs. It is not something to do on your own, you must get a doctor to do it for you, and monitor the effects closely to make sure you are not being damaged. But the doctor faces the issue of possible malpractice if it is not an accepted treatment. Some doctors are willing to do this kind of treatment for chronic lyme disease even though it is controversial.
And if this treatment is actually not doing them any good, this also maybe can be shown conclusively in future research. The CDC reports has enough caveats in it that you can understand patients and researchers not being convinced that it has totally closed the book.
And maybe some other treatment found in its place if it is a real condition, once they understand it better. Hopefully more research will help with all this.
ANNUAL CONFERENCE ON MORGELLONS
For those who are really keen to find out more, there's an annual three day conference for researchers to present and discuss their findings, including investigations of this hypothesis of a Lyme disease connection. It is held in Austin, Texas, and the eighth conference in 2015 hadtwelve presenters.
This is sponsored by the Charles Holman Morgellons Disease Foundation, which is a 501(c)3nonprofit organization committed to "advocacy and philanthropy in the battle against Morgellons Disease" Its director is Cindy Casey-Holman and the organization is named after her deceased husband Charles Holman. It also has a facebook page.
The Morgellons Research Foundation was the primary patient advocacy group in the 2000s. This was founded by Mary Leitao, a biologist from Pennsylvania, but is no longer active.
See also:
FIND OUT MORE
Mystery Of Morgellons - Disease Or Delusion - Scientific Hypothesis Of Connection With Lyme Disease
which also has many other cites.
DON’T BELIEVE WIKIPEDIA ON THIS TOPIC
If you go to the Wikipedia article on Morgellons then it just says categorically that it is delusional parasitosis. Do be aware that articles on wikipedia are sometimes very biased. (Though many others are excellent).
I’ve been trying for some time to get them to change it. I tried to get them to add this paragraph somewhere in the article:
"Not all scientists agree that the CDC closes the book on Morgellons. There is research still continuing by a number of scientists based on the hypothesis that it is a disease similar to bovine Digital dermatitis which is a known disease of cattle. These researchers report discovery of spirochetes in the wounds and fibres containing a mix of keratin and collagen as for bovine dermatitis. [cites]. This research is minority view and controversial."
But they were having none of it. You can see the discussion on the talk page if you want to see how it went. I stopped this time after another wikipedia editor (not an admin) threatened to get me topic banned if I continue to present my reasons for changing the article.
WARNING - PLEASE DON’T TAKE PART IN THE MORGELLONS TALK PAGE DEBATE IN WIKIPEDIA AS A RESULT OF READING THIS
If any of you reading this feel tempted to try to join in that debate, please don’t. Wikipedia has a strict rules against canvasing and if anyone joins in as a result of reading what I say here they will fall under canvasing also perhaps proxy editing, getting both you and me in trouble. So I have to warn all readers of my articles not to get involved.
But - I can without any problems just tell you that in my view the Morgellons article on Wikipedia is very biased, presenting the CDC report as if it closed the book when it certainly didn’t, as you can see from this answer.
SEE ALSO
The material in this answer comes from my Science20 article: Mystery Of Morgellons - Disease Or Delusion - Scientific Hypothesis Of Connection With Lyme Disease which has many cites to the academic medical literature which you can follow up to find out more.
That in turn originated as an article I wrote for wikipedia but they merged it away and after trying very hard to get them to include some of the material, I gave up and then I wrote this article instead - of course in a more entertaining science blog fashion.
I’ve also copied this answer with some editing as it is a different question, to my answer to What research is being done on the potential pandemic of Morgellons?
Just to add - of course they need to be sheered every year, and need other attention, would have the same issues with surviving long term without a shepherd like any domestic sheep - but as well as...
(more)Just to add - of course they need to be sheered every year, and need other attention, would have the same issues with surviving long term without a shepherd like any domestic sheep - but as well as that an additional issue - hill sheep also have a “culture” of sorts. They learn from older generations where are the best places to go, for shelter, food etc.
Sheep on the slopes below Dunion Hill (C) Oliver Dixon - these sheep remember where are the best places to go on the hills and pass on this sheep “culture” to later generations
This was a big problem in the border areas of Scotland when many sheep herds were killed in their entirety due to foot and mouth disease and this means the new sheep had to learn the hills all over again.
Sheep have a good memory - they remember flock members years after separation for instance. Animal behaviour and welfare: Sheep Part 1
So they do also learn from each other too. They can’t manage by themselves very well without a shepherd, but for hill sheep, the shepherd also relies on the sheep too to pass on knowledge from one generation to the next.
I see this has just gone to the top of the page of answers. Didn’t expect that - it’s one of the side effects of having a fair number of followers. I’m not a shepherd. Just live in a rural area and have a sister who keeps sheep and another sister in the borders who has shepherd friends who told me about the Borders issue with hill sheep after the foot and mouth outbreak.
Please read the answer by Sabine Ehlers' answer to Can a sheep live without a shepherd? who is a shepherd. and Benjamin Hurwitz's answer to Can a sheep live without a shepherd?
Assuming you mean a liquid ocean of water which beings sufficiently adapted could potentially swim all the way through, it would have to be small because water when compressed enough becomes ice - ...
(more)Assuming you mean a liquid ocean of water which beings sufficiently adapted could potentially swim all the way through, it would have to be small because water when compressed enough becomes ice - unless it has a hot core, which it might have soon after formation, or tidally heated.
So, the easiest case first, if you don’t need it to have enough gravity to hold an atmosphere, I don’t see why not. Basically you want a large comet, in an orbit which keeps it permanently liquid. We could create such a world artificially in our solar system with mega engineering by diverting a comet into just the right orbit around the Sun.
However, unless we add something extra to the picture, it wouldn’t last long. The problem is that water evaporates rapidly in a vacuum.
Calculation indented
With surface temperature of 273.15 °K (0 °C) and using the equation for mass loss of liquid water in a vacuum of
(pe/7.2) * sqrt (M/T) kg / m² / sec (equation 3.26 from Modern Vacuum Physics)
where M is the molar mass, 0.018 kg for water, T is the temperature in kelvin, pe is the vapour pressure, which for water at 0 °C (273.15 °K) is 611.3 Pa, (Vapour pressure of water at 0 °C), so putting all those into the formula we get:
(611.3/7.2) * sqrt(0.018/273.15) = 0.689 kg / m² / sec.
So you lose 24*60*60*0.689 or about 59.529 tons a day
Compare calculation results here: Modern Vacuum Physics where they use the vapour pressure for water at room temperature 295 K to calculate (2300/7.2) * sqrt(0.018/295) = 2.495 kg / m² / sec.
So at room temperature you lose 24*60*60*2.495 or about 215.6 tons a day
So you lose about 60 meters a day thickness of liquid water exposed to a vacuum, or about 21.9 kilometers thickness of water per year.
The rate of loss goes up if the temperature increases and at 295 K, or 22 C, it’s 215.6 meters per day and 78.7 km per year.
So, a liquid water comet would not last for long. That is unless you get a constant influx of other comets bringing more water to it.
LARGER PLANET WITH SIGNIFICANT GRAVITY
What if the object is large enough to retain liquid water for long periods of time?
That’s only possible if it has at least enough gravity to retain a significant amount of atmosphere, even if the atmosphere is just water vapour, or oxygen (after dissociation of the water by radiation).
But then - it will surely have a solid ice core. In that case, if the water is also salty, it might well have a “club sandwich” type pattern of alternating layers of ice and water as suggested for Ganymede, of various types of ice, with some of them “snowing upwards”
Images from: Possible 'Moonwich' of Ice and Oceans on Ganymede (Artist's Concept) and for paper, see Ganymede׳s internal structure including thermodynamics of magnesium sulfate oceans in contact with ice
But even Ganymede is not large enough to retain a permanent atmosphere to protect the surface layer of water if there is no returning flux of water and it just gets dissipated into the vacuum of space right away. Of course in practice it will build up a water vapour atmosphere, so we’ll get to that, but let’s see what the figures would be without that.
Its diameter is 5,268 km so if brought close enough to the Sun to have a permanently liquid surface layer, and if there was no atmosphere to protect it, it would vanish completely in 67 years.
It could build up a temporary atmosphere however, as the water evaporated. It’s gravity is similar to the Moon’s. Geoffrey Landis says here that the gravitational escape lifetime for the Moon is of the order of thousands of years for heavier gases like oxygen and nitrogen.
So, for a first rough calculation, just to get an order of magnitude type estimate, let’s suppose it warms up enough and the escape of water vapour is enough to build up an Earth pressure atmosphere. How much water would you need to build up an Earth pressure atmosphere of water vapour on Ganymede?
Its radius is 1,635 km. So surface area is 4×π×1,635^2 or 33,592,736 km². For an Earth pressure atmosphere we need (9.807/1.428)×10 tons per square meter, or around 68.676 tons per square meter, and multiply also by 10^6 for the number of square meters per square kilometer, that’s 33,592,736*10^6*68.676 tons or around 2.3×10^15 tons or 2.3 quadrillion tons.
It would take thousands of years to lose that atmosphere, and then it can be replenished from below. A water planet the size of Ganymede would have a mass of (4/3)*π*1,635,000^3 = 1.83*10^19. So assuming ten thousand years for an Earth pressure atmosphere to dissipate that makes it 10000*1.83*10^19/(2.3×10^15) or about eight million years. It would evaporate more quickly as it got smaller, and so less able to hold onto an atmosphere. But this is all very approximate anyway.
You’d need a more detailed calculation here to find out how much pressure of atmosphere it would actually build up through evaporation of the water. However, the mass loss would still be similar to the terraformed Moon even if it had a higher pressure atmosphere. So the amount of the atmospheric pressure it builds up doesn’t really matter much. So our rough calculation may be better than you’d think. The main thing to do is to replace that 10,000 years by a more exact figure for the gravitational escape time for water vapour for a moon this size with a reasonable pressure atmosphere.
It seems at least possible that a water planet the size of Ganymede could last for tens of millions of years. For millions of years anyway, while, surely it couldn’t last for billions of years.
ANOTHER SOLUTION - “DIRTY OCEAN” WITH ORGANICS
There is another solution though. If you are willing to do it artificially, you could cover the entire surface of a small comet with a low density liquid which also has a low evaporation pressure.
Indeed, comets are rich in organics anyway, so if you could bring a comet to just the right distance from the Sun, not too far, not too close, then as it melted, it would develop a layer of scum like that. And that might well be habitable too, with organics and an oxygen rich ocean too, due to similar processes to the ones that make Europa’s ocean oxygen rich.
Organics with a high evaporation rate would disappear leaving only those with a low evaporation rate, and perhaps solid layers as well.
If you have life there, the surface could be covered in algae
Brookmill Park: lake with algal bloom (C) Stephen Craven
Or if the water is very salty, haloarchaea
File:San Francisco Bay Salt Ponds.jpg
The algae right on the surface would die, but algae just below would be shielded from the vacuum and UV light by the dead layers above.
Or if it is constructed artificially, you can cover the surface with a low density ionic fluids. These are salts that melt at very low temperatures and then have very low rate f evaporation. So long as it is less dense than water it will float. Many ionic fluids are high density but some are lower density than water. These are examples, though I don’t know how well they would fare in a vacuum: Hydrophobic and low-density amino acid ionic liquids
So if you are okay with your planet being a tiny comet sized object, and your water can be a bit “dirty” with organics, which means it can also support life, I’d say yes, it does seem possible.
CONSTANT INFLUX OF COMETS
Another solution, without the layer of ionic liquids or similar, is to have a constant influx of comets to replenish the water. I can imagine some scenarios where that could work, e.g. soon after formation of a solar system. It also might work for a while later on in a white dwarf star with material brought into it through destruction of its Oort cloud and perturbing effects of an extra planet, see Our Solar System Could Lose One Or More Of Its Gas Giants Billions Of Years In The Future - and that would also help keep it hot. In a situation like that maybe even quite a large minor planet would stay hot enough to stay liquid all the way through.
So we have two ways to keep it liquid without it evaporating away to nothing in the vacuum of space even if it is quite small, too small to retain an atmosphere. So, how large can it be?
EXAMPLE OF EUROPA
Europa’s ocean may be as much as 100 km thick, with a surface layer 10 - 30 km thick.
Based on that, you could have a minor planet made of ice, 260 km in diameter, and consisting entirely of water, I think, with a surface layer of organic ionic fluids or a scum of organics in solid form floating on the surface. That could last for billions of years.
That makes it about the same size as 88 Thisbe
Vesta’s double that diameter
Vesta, Ceres and the Moon to scale at 20 km per px
I’m just using the figures for Europa and the depth of its subsurface ocean, which is kept liquid by tidal heating, and assuming the situation is similar - so this is just a rough estimate as it would depend on what you have by way of an energy source to keep your planet or moon warm.
Tidal heating could be a way to keep your planet liquid just as for Europa, so if you make it so that it orbits a hot Jupiter - those are planets like Jupiter that end up in orbits close to their sun, and they may well have liquid water moons.
Or put your planet close enough to its sun and you can have liquid water moons just because the surface is heated to above melting point and that would keep the whole moon at that temperature..
HOW LARGE CAN A PLANET BE AND CONSIST ENTIRELY OF WATER?
The problem with making a planet entirely of water is that if the water is compressed enough it turns into ice VI or ice VII no matter how hot it is, within reason.
Phase diagram by Cmglee, wikipedia. Ice outside of Earth can be in many different phases. For instance in the outer solar system it is often so cold that it is in the very hard orthorhombic phase, where it behaves more like rock than what we think of as ice. However ice on Mars is likely to be in the Ih phase similar to Earth life. The Mars surface is close to the triple point of solid / liquid / vapour in this diagram.
There the Ice VI (ice-six) triple point with liquid water and Ice V is at -0.16 °C, 632.4 MPa. So 632.4 MPa is as high pressure as you can get with liquid water at around 0 °C
That’s 6324 bars or the pressure at a depth of about 63.24 kilometers in a liquid ocean under Earth gravity.
Obviously a water planet smaller than Earth is going to have a lot less gravity than Earth. It’s tricky to work out the pressure at the center - it’s caused by all the layers above pressing down on it. The top layers of course contribute most pressure but all of them do right down to the central layers that have almost no effect. The maximum pressure is at the centre.
We want the maximum diameter of a planet with the pressure at the center low enough to remain liquid at various temperatures. I assume uniform density as water isn’t very compressible. Calculation indented:
The equation is here: How to find the force of the compression at the core of a planet?
P = (2/3) * π * G * ρ^2 * R^2
There using SI units, the density of water, ρ = 1000 kg / m3, Pascal is the SI unit for pressure, and meter is the SI unit for length.
There P for Ice V at -0.16 °C, is 632.4 MP = 632.4*10^6 Pascals
G = 6.674×10^−11 N⋅m² / kg²
Want to solve for R.
So R = sqrt ( 632.4*10^6 / ((2/3) * π * 6.674×10^−11*10^6 )) meters.
= 2,127,029 meters or around 2,127 km
Trying another figure from that table, 355 K or 81.85 °C, pressure of 2.216 gigapascals, then it’s
sqrt ( 2.216*10^9 / ((2/3) * π * 6.674×10^−11*10^6 )) meters.
or about 3,982 km.
So we can have an ice free planet of pure water with temperatures of -0.16 °C and radius of around 2,127 km and at temperature of 81.85 °C and radius of about 3,982 km.
That’s for fresh water. A salty ocean would stay liquid at lower temperatures and higher pressures.
Compare the diameter of our Moon of 3,474 km, so it seems you could have a planet that’s a bit larger than our Moon, entirely of water, and still be habitable for at least some microbes. Indeed Hyperthermophiles have optimal temperatures above 80 °C (176 °F).
SUMMARY
So, in short, I think this scenario could actually exist in nature, if you don’t mind having an ocean rich in organics, covered with a thin layer of organics, and make it a moon orbiting a gas giant rather than a planet on its own, to help keep it liquid through tidal heating, and make it perhaps around the size of 88 Thisbe
This is just a rough estimate. Would be interesting if someone was to do a paper on it - has anyone?
Would a liquid water world the size of Vesta or even Ceres be possible, with tidal heating to keep it warm? Can a hot Jupiter have a moon of pure ice? (I don’t see why not if it formed far enough away from its host star originally, but would be interesting to know how likely that is).
Alternatively, it could be possible if the world is kept hot and liquid by impacts of numerous comets - perhaps for quite some time in the early stages of formation of a solar system.
STACK EXCHANGE DISCUSSION AND STAR TREK VOYAGER EPISODE
See also stack exchange discussion here, where I’ve just added this answer (a copy of the original text which I wrote here)
Could a planet made completely of water exist?
The original question there is motivated by a story in Star Trek Voyager about a planet made entirely of water with the water prevented from escaping by a “containment field”
Originally answered as Is it possible that a planet is entirely made of liquid much like Saturn and Jupiter are made entirely of gas?
(Don’t suggest a merge as “liquid” can be understood more generally as any liquid including liquid nitrogen, liquid helium etc)
Check out my book for more:
Simple Questions - Surprising Answers - In Astronomy,
It is a compilation of some of my quora answers, including this one.
Yes for sure. It’s a similar technology to ICBMs (not the same exactly, an ICBM uses solid fuel, so doesn’t need to be refueled before launch, and is able to launch within minutes but it is close e...
(more)Yes for sure. It’s a similar technology to ICBMs (not the same exactly, an ICBM uses solid fuel, so doesn’t need to be refueled before launch, and is able to launch within minutes but it is close enough to be of concern).
That’s why Elon Musk can’t offer jobs to non US citizens except in unusual circumstances - he mentioned that in his talk about the ITS. See also this quora answer: Can a person of non-U.S. citizenship get a job as an engineer/scientist in any of the aerospace/defence companies in the US like NASA, L.M.A., SpaceX etc.?
In future if this spacecraft was doing many spaceflights, it’s an obvious target for terrorists, to take over a spaceship and crash it intentionally with the maximum of damage as for 9/11. The most vulnerable of all there would be space stations, habitats and colonies. They would be just like eggshells, totally vulnerable, no way they could be protected against a deliberate crash by a spaceship controlled by a terrorist, not without something like a Star Trek “structural integrity shield” or whatever, some kind of force field or other science fiction device which we don’t have. It would be easy for spaceships to achieve impact velocities of many thousands of miles per hour, just by accelerating when they are supposed to decelerate.
Of course there’d be numerous checks to make sure this can’t happen. But once you have thousands of flights into space a year, then millions, and eventually billions a year, just as you have for flights between continents, this could become a major issue.
Further into the future, then if there are millions in space, then that means millions of people with potential access to better than ICBM technology.
I think it’s mainly a matter of the speed with which the technology develops. After all jet engines crisscross the world, billions of flights each year, and it is pretty awesome technology when you think about it, and as we saw indeed for 9/11, yet somehow we manage okay with it. But if that technology was suddenly transplanted back to WWI somehow, then it would wield havoc probably. We have also learnt to cope with chemical weapons, biological weapons - any of the major industrial countries could develop and use them but we don’t. We’ve developed conventions and common understanding.
This is one of the reasons that I think we should not rush to colonize space. I don’t think it is practical to do it quickly anyway, but it might be just as well that it isn’t. I don’t think colonizing is either good or bad “as is”. I think whether it is beneficial depends how it is done and one of the ways it could go wrong is if there is a drive to send lots of people into space very quickly. I think Elon Musk’s city of a million is more practical on the Moon actually, but although it would be fun and cool to have a million people living there, I’m not sure if that is a future that we should rush towards.
I think that by taking protection of Earth as our top priority, realizing how precious and valuable it is, that we are then better equipped to do colonization, if we do it, with the right attitudes and in a safe way. I think also we have got off tp a good start with the Outer Space Treaty which treats outer space as “the province of all mankind”. And I think we will do best if we go into space as explorers at present, like the early Antarctic explorers, and also with some humility, realizing how little we know or understand. I think it is just too soon to have grand plans for the future worked out in great detail and rather need a more open ended approach, where we have plans for the near future. but not too far ahead and our more distant future plans are based on what we find as we make our near future discoveries.
For instance I think we need to know a lot more about the Moon right now before we can make good long term plans. Even the ESA lunar village idea - it seems great, and is the sort of intermediate objective that is just right for us. But even that, probably not such a good idea to set about launching habitats and making the base right away. The first priority is to find out about the Moon through robotic exploration, probably remotely from Earth. Explore the polar regions and also the caves and find out what is there. Maybe the obvious first choice for a polar base on the Moon is not the choice we’d make with a bit more data. Or maybe even a cave would be a better first choice. Let’s find out a bit more before we commit large sums of money to set up the base itself.
As far as I can tell, that is their plan, to explore first, then to build the base robotically from Earth, and then humans to go there later. The first new thing for sure will be next year when the Lunar X prize contenders will finally start landing on the Moon. Some exciting missions there e.g. the astrobiotics mission to explore the region around a lunar cave and even one of the landers will go inside its entrance. Later on they hope to target the polar regions and look for ice there, and the Chinese have a special interest in learning about the far side of the Moon. We may know a fair bit about the Moon within just two or three years.
Then based on what we find in those early explorations of the solar system, to make the detailed plans for the next stage. And based on what we find then, detailed plans for the next and so on. And to keep in mind ways to benefit Earth such as scientific discovery, asteroid detection and deflection, tourism indeed (recreation and fun is also important), mining in space, solar power from space etc.
Going into space with that sort of attitude I think is likely to lead to a more stable future than one where the aim is almost to “abandon Earth” with a grand plan to set up a colony of millions of people as quickly as possible. I know it is not meant that way but sometimes it comes across like that, like rats trying to abandon a sinking ship. Our ship is not sinking. Our beautiful Earth is still very habitable and indeed there is nothing we could do that would make it anything like as uninhabitable as any of the places we know of in space. As Carl Sagan said, and I think it still applies, even though it seems there may be some possibility of microbial life and lichens on Mars and even perhaps, higher lifeforms in the oceans of Europa or Enceladus:
"The Earth is the only world known, so far, to harbor life. There is nowhere else, at least in the near future, to which our species could migrate. Visit, yes. Settle, not yet. Like it or not, for the moment, the Earth is where we make our stand
For more about this, see my article on Science20:
See also my Mars Is Nothing Like The New World
and Wait, Let's Not Rush To Be Multiplanetary Or Interstellar - A Comment On Elon Musk's Vision
Oh, well the thing is that nowhere in space is anywhere near as hospitable as Earth. So it’s not so much which is the most habitable as which places are actually worth going to for other reasons. I...
(more)Oh, well the thing is that nowhere in space is anywhere near as hospitable as Earth. So it’s not so much which is the most habitable as which places are actually worth going to for other reasons. If they have useful resources, then you may have humans there even if they are very inhospitable and have to be supported from Earth. None of them are anything like as hospitable as Antarctica. So I think the most likely situation is settlement supported from Earth. Which could be scientific research, tourism, exploration, or space mining. And for mining, then if the same operation can be done for less cost with robots, you would have robots there instead of humans. I think that might well be the situation, so I expect that mining operations in space would have only a few humans and lots of robots.
With that background, the Moon is the most likely to have lots of people in the near future I think. First, it is very accessible from Earth. If we have tourism in space at all beyond LEO, then the Moon is the natural place. Easier to support large numbers of scientists too, and explorers. And there is much to interest both scientists and explorers. Its potentially vast caves. Meteorites from early Earth and the rest of the solar system. Great place to build radio telescopes on the far side. For some of the benefits see my MOON FIRST Why Humans on Mars Right Now Are Bad for Science
I am not sure though. It might be that even for the Moon a lot of the exploration is done from Earth via telerobotics. Perhaps there would be fewer tourists than expected actually travel there?
It may depend on the costs. If we can get it as easy to travel to the Moon as it is to travel across the Atlantic, not impossible with ideas for planes like Skylon able to fly to orbit or perhaps orbital airships as for JP Aerospace’s ideas, then I think we may get a lot of travel back and forth from Earth to the Moon. See my: Projects To Get To Space As Easily As We Cross Oceans - A Billion Flights A Year Perhaps - Will We Be Ready?
If not, if it is a destination for billionaires only, and bearing in mind that probably only a small proportion of billionaires will be space nuts dead keen to go to the Moon - well, maybe thousands living there, not so sure about hundreds of thousands or millions.
However of all the places we can go, the Moon seems the most promising. See also my
As for the easiest place to live, I think Venus wins hands down. Not the surface, but the upper atmosphere. It’s nowhere near as habitable as Earth but far better than anywhere else. The sulfuric acid in the atmosphere is far easier to deal with, far lower tech than a vacuum. You just need teflon covered materials basically, or other forms of very acid resistant plastic coatings.
Longer term, then the lunar caves could be very low maintenance once you have got over the initial cost of setting up a closed system ecosystem inside them.
Eventually perhaps these places could become so low maintenance they compete with habitats on Earth, but not any time soon I think,. By the time we can do this in space, we’ll be able to feed four times the Earth’s population from 0.5% of the Pacific ocean just from sea cities floating on the sea, low environmental impact, main imports just sea water and air. We may be able to do that, almost have the technology now in some ways, but probably a bit of a while before we actually have it and use it.
The big problem with Venus is, what is the commercial reason for being there? What are their exports to pay for their imports? Also travel to Venus is easy, comparatively, but travel back is harder.
Mercury could have benefits, abundant solar power and likely to be metals rich, and it is thought to have ice at its poles.
The asteroids long term may have a lot of potential. Enough material there for habitats for a total area a thousand times that of Earth, habitats for trillions.
Callisto in the Jupiter system I think has a lot of potential also. It’s outside Jupiter’s radiation belts. Also it’s got abundant ice. And there are no planetary protection issues - probably. Need to check that but it is probably okay with its subsurface ocean totally insulated from the surface.
The places we should not colonize at present are
because those places may have habitats for life on them. Just microbes but to discover an extra terrestrial biology could easily be the next major discovery in biology. Until we know more, the safest assumption is that every one of those is potentially of astounding interest for biology and should be kept as is. The problem is that once you introduce Earth life to one of these places, it may be irreversible. This closes off future options. Right now I think we need to keep our future open.
Making habitats in lunar caves, at the poles of the Moon, in free space, that all leaves all futures open to us, and expands on our options for the future if anything. So I think that is the direction we need to go right now. We can certainly go to Mars orbit and probably also explore its two moons from orbit, but let’s hold off from the surface for now. I think Mars orbit and Phobos and Deimos need to be our end goal for humans to Mars, with the aim of exploring Mars by telepresence from orbit.
See also my MOON FIRST Why Humans on Mars Right Now Are Bad for Science
First, I think the challenge of getting the mass where you want to go is the least of the challenges facing us. We may well be able to do that by the late 2020s. I think by far the biggest challenge is...
(more)First, I think the challenge of getting the mass where you want to go is the least of the challenges facing us. We may well be able to do that by the late 2020s. I think by far the biggest challenge is reliable life support, supply of food, oxygen, scrubbing CO2, and also safety in case of fire, loss of pressure, and releases of toxic gases within a small enclosed environment. Health in zero g is a bit of a red herring, I think, as probably they will use artificial gravity. All that research into how to survive for years in zero g, exercising for two hours a day and using drugs, may be just not needed at all for interplanetary flight.
As for cosmic radiation protection and solar storm protection, I think a shelter sufficient to protect during a solar storm doesn’t seem too hard to do. For the more penetrating cosmic radiation protection then it involvees decisions about where to place the fuel and water. For instance if you shield sleeping quarters and the places where astronauts spend most of the time, that deals with most of the issue. Also, it is basically a matter of how much mass you can carry, and it seems likely that we will be able to build more and more powerful rockets to solve such issues.
But powerful rockets will not solve the problem of reliable life support. We have to tackle that directly.
WHY ZERO G IS A RED HERRING
At the moment NASA, ESA, Russia are all devoting lots of research into ways to survive for years at zero g, exercising two hours a day. But there have been almost no experiments on use of short arm centrifuges or long arm tethers - and what experiments there were done show that humans can tolerate spinning motions in space conditions far more easily than on Earth.
Here is Tim Peake spinning at about 60 rpm in the ISS. for a couple of minutes, no nausea, only momentary dizziness when he stops.
He says he is pretty sure he couldn't tolerate that on Earth. So anecdotally it suggests that we can tolerate very high spin rates in zero g. Taking the radius as 0.25 meters at a guess, his head and feet will be both under full g, his torso around zero g as he spins. Could he spin like this indefinitely? If so, it's very promising I think for the use of a short arm centrifuge to counteract health issues of humans in zero g.
For more about this see my Small centrifuge based artificial gravity experiments in LEO in Case For Moon First
Also for longer tethers, see Joe Carroll's tether experiments in artificial gravity - which we could do right now
So I think myself that probably the challenge of zero g will be solved rather easily as soon as we do a few experiments in artificial gravity in space.
CLOSED SYSTEMS FOR INTERPLANETARY TRAVEL
The next bit though is far tougher. We have nuclear submarines that in theory can stay submerged for twenty years - but they need resupply of food from the surface (don’t grow their own food) and they get all their water from the sea and have hundred megawatt scale nuclear power plants (Nuclear marine propulsion). And if there is an emergency, they just need to surface to escape to small boats floating on the sea in a habitable breathable atmosphere.
Going on an interplanetary mission is far far harder to make safe than that.
First, I used to think that such a mission would need to use biological closed systems. But if you do the calculation, then actually a system like the one used for the ISS works better up to around 500 days. Though there is more supply needed for a mechanical system, you don’t have the overhead of the greenhouses and other extras needed for a biological system. The biological approach pays for itself many times over once you get to missions well over two years. You’d never use an ISS type system if you wanted to be away from Earth without resupply for a decade.
But even with triple redundancy, the ISS system scores over the biological one for shorter missions. Though some hybrid system involving algae, especially as a backup, may be useful, and of course it is likely to help with crew morale to have some fresh food they grow in a small on board greenhouse.
You could use a biological system for a two year mission, as it more or less breaks even with the ISS system, but at present the ISS approach is more thoroughly tested. Longer term I think the biological system may be more robust, because you can grow a plant from a seed, and algae from just a single microbe. There would be no diseases of plants in space, easy to eliminate them as for aeroponic and hydroponic farming on Earth which doesn’t have any problem with plant diseases. You could never replicate a mechanical life support system from a seed like that. So long term I think the biological approach is likely to be more robust and used as the main system with mechanical systems just as backup, but for now, mechanical systems are the best tested.
For details, see my:
So you might think “Okay, zero g is probably not a problem, we just need to do some experiments in artificial gravity and we may sort it out - and we know how to do life support for the ISS long enough for a mission of two years or so - so we are good to go are we not?”
Well in principle, yes. But in practice, no. The problem is that the ISS has not been as reliable as you might hope, and it would also be a totally new spaceship, and would need to be tested a fair bit before you know it is reliable.
The ISS was a collaboration of ROSCOSMOS and NASA both with several decades of experience with life support in space and space stations. Yet many things have gone wrong with life support on the ISS, some of which would undoubtedly have been fatal on an interplanetary mission.
FAILURES OF LIFE SUPPORT AND CRITICAL SYSTEMS ON THE ISS
The ISS has had many failures of its life support systems and other systems. And the events like a fire, depressurization, or toxic gases which on the ISS would lead to an abort to Earth in contingency planning and the reason they have to have lifeboat Soyuz TMA attached at all times sufficient for all the crew would be end of mission death of all the crew for an interplanetary mission.
Soyuz TMA-19 (emergency lifeboat for three crew) docked to the Rassvet Mini-Research Module with Progress resupply mission in the background. The ISS is required to have sufficient “lifeboats” for its entire crew attached at all time. The crew can board this and return to the Earth in an emergency, and the lifeboat has sufficient supplies for the short journey back.
The most serious is the Elektron failure for the ISS in 2004 and 2005, with the second one requiring the crew to breath oxygen from a docked progress resupply mission. Bear in mind that this is a system devised by the Russians who had a lot of prior experience in life support on board MIR - arguably more experience than NASA had with Skylab.
Then there's the failure of urine recovery system in 2008 and 2009
Lots of other equipment failures over the years that were not critical but you can imagine some of them could have been in a multi-year mission.
International Space Station maintenance - Wikipedia
Those include computer failures, and toxic gas releases, e.g. an ammonia leak.
This is another issue from 2011: Astronauts service station's air purifier, oxygen generator
Here is a more recent issue from 2013 for the ISS
"Minor issues with elements of the International Space Station (ISS) Life Support hardware continue to show the need for highly robust systems on spacecraft bound for Beyond Earth Orbit (BEO) missions. A problem with a valve on the Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) is continuing to require mitigation from ground crews."
ISS hardware issues providing lessons to be learned for BEO missions
An issue like that is not life threatening on the ISS. The space station is required to have “lifeboats” attached to it at any time, sufficient to fly all the crew back to Earth. At present these are the Soyuz TMA spacecraft. In the event of a serious risk of any sort, the first thing the crew will do, if they can’t fix it right away, is to retreat to the Soyuz TMA. They are then safe, can return to Earth if needs be, and then can work on trouble shooting the problem without putting their own lives at risk.
On an interplanetary spacecraft, an issue that would be minor on the ISS, like a partial failure of life support, could be a disaster. Once an interplanetary spacecraft has left Earth on a Hohmann transfer, there is no way to go back again. Even a failure of life support on the very day they leave Earth orbit would mean they have to come back to Earth via Mars, or Venus or wherever they are going, just as the Apollo 13 astronauts returned back to Earth via the Moon.
It’s one thing to last for a few days with a damaged, only partially functional life support system. The Apollo 13 astronauts survived by using the oxygen designed to refill the lunar module after each EVA, as well as the CO2 scrubbers routed through the lunar module systems through McGyver style ingenious use of duct tape. It’s another matter altogether to somehow survive like that for two years.
If they can’t fix it in situ, enough to last out for two years, they will be doomed. There will be nothing anyone on Earth can do to help.
EMERGENCY SITUATIONS
The ISS EMERGENCY OPERATIONS paper covers emergencies that could arise on the ISS requiring immediate evacuation.
The main categories are: depressurization, fire, and toxic gas release.
On the ISS, if any of those things happen, then you retreat to the Soyuz TMA as usual. On an interplanetary cruise, there is nowhere to retreat to.
Coast Guard Lifeboat practicing in the big surf just outside and south of the Morro Bay harbor mouth, California. Photo © 2012 “Mike” Michael L. Baird
We can equip a habitat on the Moon with lifeboats for the entire crew, supplied with provisions for two days, to get back to Earth in an emergency.
For a typical Hohmann transfer orbit, the crew are on their own, even one hour after their spaceship sets off for Mars. It won't have enough delta v to reverse course and return to Earth at that point, and there is no other way to get the crew back quickly with present day technology either. They would have to come back via Mars.
This makes the Moon far far safer than Mars or any other interplanetary flight for a human crew in the near future.
I think there might be something you could do about that. That is to travel in convoys, of three or more spacecraft at a time. Then if there is a disaster in one, the crew can transfer to the other two. Make sure that each spacecraft has enough supplies for all three of them. So triple triple redundancy - each spacecraft triply redundant, then three of them fly at once.
That could be combined with tethers for artificial gravity - the spacecraft and their final stages could be tethered together around a common hub, maybe with air beam type passage ways joining them together, so making one big habitat they can all share.
So, I think this is addressable, but it does need careful thought. In the near future, there is no realistic way that the crew could evacuate back to Earth or anywhere else habitable in the case of fire, depressurization or toxic gas release.
HUMAN FACTORS ON INTERPLANETARY CRUISE WITH ORDINARY FOLK ON BOARD
There’s one other issue that I think might arise especially if we have a spaceship with a hundred ordinary folk in it as for Elon Musk’s ideas. Astronauts for the ISS are comfortable with a clear chain of command, are prompt at reacting in an emergency, and will do exactly what mission control or the station commander say. When astronauts are told by mission control to cut short the EVA, they don’t say “Oh, please let me stay a bit longer, I’m sure it is fine” or disobeying orders. They just do exactly what they are told to do with no questions at all. They may give more information to help ground control or the commander to evaluate the situation, but they then just do as they are told. It is one of the things astronauts have to be able to do to be accepted for the ISS - that they must be able to respond to a chain of command like this.
If we have ordinary folk not used to that sort of thing, they may well behave in strange ways in an emergency. They may cause problems and make it harder for the trained astronauts to resolve the situation. And they may also actually cause the emergency, press the wrong button, find themselves somewhere where they shouldn’t, do something that they don’t realize is dangerous.
Another issue that could arise in a long cruise with lots of people is sleep walking. It’s rare but sometimes people will do long complex actions, even drive a car, while fast asleep. Anyone prone to sleep walking like that might well be a danger on an interplanetary cruise.
NEED FOR SHAKE DOWN CRUISE - SUGGESTION OF L2
For all these reasons I think it is vital that the systems are tested closer to Earth first, in a situation where the spaceship can be supplied with lifeboats sufficient for the entire crew to get them back to Earth in an emergency.
This might not be as expensive as you might think. After all, if the whole thing can be a single mission, with no resupply, for interplanetary missions - well it could be a single mission with no resupply for the Earth Moon system too.
Imagine if we had a space stations just above the near and far sides of the Moon? Those are the L1 and L2 positions, where the gravity of Earth and Moon balance to keep a space station poised in equilibrium, needing just minor adjustments to keep in position.
Astronauts there would be ideally situated to explore the surface of the Moon by telepresence. They could assist surface operations - explore the ice at the poles, the vast lunar caves, the lunar far side. They could build radio telescopes using robots that trail wires across the surface. They could prospect for ice, for metal deposits such as platinum, for thorium and uranium etc. They could search for meteorites from early Earth - an estimated 200 kilograms of meteorites per square kilometer of the lunar surface, which might also include meteorites from Mars, Venus and Mercury and not just recently ejected meteorites but ones that left those planets billions of years ago and have just been sitting on or near the surface of the Moon ever since. They could find ones that preserve organics too in the ice deposits at the lunar poles.
This would be a very low cost mission as, to simulate an interplanetary mission, you send them as a single mission, launched from Earth, then leave them there without resupply of any sort for a couple of years.
I would predict that the first attempt to do this is likely to turn up many problems, just as with the ISS. If so, you resupply from Earth, if necessary you return the astronauts to Earth in an emergency, and work on improving the design.
This step by step approach was the key to the success of Apollo. Even Apollo 10, which went right down nearly to the surface and returned to EArth without landing, turned up issues that might well have doomed Apollo 11 astronauts if they hadn’t found them in Apollo 10.
In the same way, we need to do many precursors for interplanetary missions. But these precursors will each take several years, rather than several days. For that reason, I think you are talking about probably a decade or two before we are ready for safe interplanetary flight. Of course if we are lucky and the first spacecraft are just flawless, everything works perfectly, then it might be faster than that. But I think safest to assume that things turn up that need to he fixed in the shake up cruises.
Meanwhile though, we are exploring the Moon, a fascinating place, even biologically. And it’s also a great place to try our first experiments in life support on the surface. It may be the easiest place of all for astronaut gardening. See my
For more on all this see my
and my two books
MOON FIRST Why Humans on Mars Right Now Are Bad for Science
and
The chance of getting this right three times in a row is one chance in 8, or 12.5%. Since everyone and their dog is in the game of trying to predict presidential election success, then there must b...
(more)The chance of getting this right three times in a row is one chance in 8, or 12.5%. Since everyone and their dog is in the game of trying to predict presidential election success, then there must be many of them that got it right three times.
We should check whether Clinton or Trump masks have the most halloween mask sales. This metric has successfully predicted every presidential election since 1980. 6 Bizarre Factors That Predict Every Presidential Election
Which doesn’t mean that it will predict it successfully this time.
There are many other striking correlations
Age of Miss America correlates with Murders by steam, hot vapours and hot objects
More spurious correlations here: 15 Insane Things That Correlate With Each Other
In short you can’t conclude much at all from a correlation like that, especially if it is noticed after the fact.
Now, if there was a preliminary survey of all ways of predicting the US election, and there was a general consensus that this AI program was the best way to do it, then it predicted it successfully 3 times - then that would be suggestive, not very strong evidence, not nearly enough for a scientific validation, but might lead one to think that there just possibly was something worth investigating further.
But the other way around - to notice a correlation and then try to use that to say it is a likely way of predicting the election - this is not even suggestive. This sort of thing is bound to happen often just through chance.
Of course if you happen to be the developer of the AI program then it will seem striking to you. But that’s because you aren’t taking account of all the other developers of AI programs and other methods of predicting the election who failed. This is why scientists require such high standards before something is treated as a discovery in science. There are so many scientists making so many hypotheses every year that many of them are bound to make predictions that fit the data very well from time to time. The Higgs boson was only accepted as real after it was confirmed to 5 sigma meaning one chance in 3.5 million that the data was chance 5 Sigma What's That? They collect so much data for particle physics experiments that false results are common if you set the cut off point to anything much more than about 1 in 3.5 million.
No, I think this analogy is very misleading, though often used. It’s more like the nineteenth century exploration of Antarctica. The New World was warm, habitable, plants, trees, fruit, grew there,...
(more)No, I think this analogy is very misleading, though often used. It’s more like the nineteenth century exploration of Antarctica. The New World was warm, habitable, plants, trees, fruit, grew there, animals, soil you could just dig and grow things in. Not only was it inhabitable, it had inhabitants, the N. American Indians, Mayans, Aztecs, Inuit etc. And it had many new food stuffs as well. Wikipedia has a useful article with a list of New World crops that were native there before 1492 and didn’t occur anywhere else in the world at that time:
Grains: Little barley, maize (corn), maygrass, wild rice
Pseudograins: Amaranth, knotweed, goosefoot (quinoa), sunflower
Beans: Common bean, lima bean, peanut, scarlet runner bean, tepary bean
Fiber: Agave, yucca, long-staple and upland cotton
Roots and Tubers: Arracacha, arrowroot, jicama, Camas root, hopniss, leren, manioc (yuca, cassava), mashua or cubio, oca, potato, sweet potato, ulluco, yacon
Fruits: Avocado, blueberry, cherimoya, cranberry, curuba, feijoa, granadilla or lulo, guava (guayaba), huckleberry, papaya, pawpaw, passionfruit, peppers, pineapple, prickly pear (tuna), soursop, commercial strawberries, tomato, tomatillo
Melons: Chayote, squashes (including pumpkins)
Nuts: American chestnut, Black walnut, Brazil nut, cashew, hickory, pecan, shagbark hickory
Other: Achiote (annatto), canna, chicle (key ingredient in chewing gum and rubber), coca, cocoa, cochineal (red dye), logwood, maple syrup, poinsettia, rubber, tobacco, vanilla
Mars not only has no crops or animals, it also has no fresh water - just ice and the equatorial regions completely dry almost everywhere too ,to hundreds of meters depth.
It also, more fundamentally, has no air either, only 0.6% of Earth’s. Air same pressure as the top of a mountain four times the height of Mount Everest and only trace amounts of oxygen. Even with an oxygen mask you would not survive, you couldn’t breathe as the moisture lining your lungs would boil. You need a full body spacesuit to survive on the Mars surface.
Also as a side effect of that, you have to hold in atmosphere in any human occupied habitat - with a pressure of many tons per square meter. And it also has high levels of radiation - not enough to kill you, not nearly. But enough to increase the cancer risk, risk of dying young from cancer too, not late death as for cigarette smoking. It’s like living on Earth after a nuclear war, in levels of radiation.
Saying “let’s colonize Mars” in my view is like Shackleton saying “Let’s colonize Antarctica” after his ship sank and he overwintered huddling under boats and killing seals for food.
Dump camp for Shackleton’s party after his boat sunk. Ernest Shackleton and the Endurance expedition, into the pack ice
Antarctica in the nineteenth century was far far more habitable than Mars is for us. Shackleton’s party did survive the winter, hunting seals and huddling under boats. But they didn’t return to England after that experience saying “Great we over wintered on Antarctica - let’s colonize the continent”. Indeed nobody showed any interest at all in colonizing it and eventually they signed the The Antarctic Treaty in 1959 to set it aside for scientific research and such like.
But there are no seals on Mars to eat. Or anything else for that matter. If you can survive on Mars, you can use the same technology to survive in the middle of the driest coldest deserts on Earth or in a floating sea city - using nothing except sea water and air.
We could feed the entire Earth from 2.5% of the Sahara desert using the technology suggested for growing food on Mars or the Moon, or we could feed four times our population from 0.5% of the Pacific in floating self contained environmentally friendly sea cities. That would cost far far less than to feed the same people in space. You can leave out much of the complex technology they would need in space, if we do it on Earth instead. You don’t need to wear spacesuits to go outside your habitat to repair it, just open the windows to get air in and let toxic gases escape from your habitat, no need to hold in tons of atmosphere per square meter - hard to beat all that.
Mars is of great value potentially, but not as a place to colonize. It is of great interest for the search for life there. But that means also that we have to take great care not to introduce Earth microbes. Spacecraft on Mars risk crashing, it’s the hardest place to land in the inner solar system. A crash of a spacecraft with humans on board on Mars would put an end to any planetary protection of the planet and potentially destroy a lot of the science interest for the search for life there.
It’s not just some obscure academic interest either, some microbe that would only interest specialists. We don’t know what is there so have no idea what we would lose, but it could be the next revolution in biology. To discover a biology based on different principles from DNA life could be the next big discovery in biology after discovery of evolution, and the spiral structure of DNA.
Elon Musk and Robert Zubrin just don’t have the right to make a decision like that for the whole of humanity - and not just us, but all future generations and even all future civilizations on Earth. Earth microbes introduced to Mars could never be removed, if there are habitats there for them to colonize. There are plenty of other places to go, the three top priorities to keep protected from Earth life are Mars, Europa and Enceladus. Let’s not rush our microbes there as quickly as possible, but find out what is there first.
If we want to live in space, the Moon is far closer and easier and it is in many ways more habitable than Mars, it’s also quite good for gardening, surprisingly, though it is no “New World”. See my
It does however have some commercial potential many think, with possibly hundreds of millions, or billions of tons of ice, and many millions of tons of CO2, methane, ammonia at the poles, also some think it has platinum and gold from impacts by iron meteorites with some evidence to back them up. Also the Hoyt cislunar tether system could give a way to return those materials to LEO or to Earth indeed at very little cost / delta v. This involves a couple of orbiting spinning tethers, and is a much lighter and simpler construction than the lunar elevator, though both can be made with existing materials, the Hoyt system is the easiest to build and most practical in the near term.
If so, the Moon could possibly be profitable and if they can turn a profit at all, it might be very profitable, for metals like platinum, supply of ice and fuel to LEO etc, and if so it might lead to people living there permanently (though it might also mean lots of robots on the Moon and a few humans to supervise them). I think it could also be profitable for a tourist industry. The New World analogy fails for habitability but in terms of profit, it might well be similar. For more on this see my
There is almost no commercial potential for Mars in the near future as far as we know. ?The problem is its gravity well, double the gravity of the Moon but by the rocket equation, because fuel is needed to lift extra fuel, it needs far more than double the amount of fuel to get to orbit. And there is no immediate likelihood of a Mars tether to orbit (and Phobos and Deimos orbiting close to Mars would make it a tricky build anyway).
Books advocating Moon exploration and eventual colonization have many chapters about the commercial value. Robert Zubrin’s book Case for Mars has one short not very convincing chapter suggesting that intellectual ideas and deuterium could pay for Mars as well as suggesting a colony there could have a role later on supplying materials to asteroid miners in the asteroid belt. I cover those ideas, as well as other suggestions from Mars colonization enthusiasts in my Is there a fortune to be made on Mars, the Moon or anywhere else in space? in my "MOON FIRST Why Humans on Mars Right Now Are Bad for Science",
See also my science20 articles:
and books:
"MOON FIRST Why Humans on Mars Right Now Are Bad for Science", available on kindle, and also to read for free online.
Case For Moon First: Gateway to Entire Solar System - Open Ended Exploration, Planetary Protection at its Heart - kindle edition or Read it online on my website (free).
The problem with a parachute, even a very large one, is that the atmosphere is so thin that you are still going at hundreds of miles an hour when you hit the ground. That is just too much of a hard...
(more)The problem with a parachute, even a very large one, is that the atmosphere is so thin that you are still going at hundreds of miles an hour when you hit the ground. That is just too much of a hard landing for most spacecraft to survive though specially hardened penetrators can.
If the parachute is big enough, you can have a conventional landing just as for Earth. Simply use aeroshell, and then parachute, and parachute down and the parachute will slow you down enough so you get a soft landing.
The problem is deploying those parachutes and making sure they work. You can work it out with computer models, test tiny parachutes etc. But at some poitn you have teo test it with real parachutes. The parachutes on Mars so far were tested by firing rockets in suborbital trajectories and then releasing parachutes and required many tests.
To make even larger supersonic parachutes will require many expensive rocket tests. NASA are working on this with their Low-Density Supersonic Decelerator - Wikipedia
NASA "Flying Saucer" Supersonic Parachute Fails Test [Video]
I don’t think their plan is to use a parachute all the way down. Rather it is to land larger masses, of up to 5 tons so would probably still need a complex landing system.
This is just a rough idea of how it works. For more on ways of landing on Mars with supersonic retropropulsion or large supersonic parachutes etc, hear Robert Manning talk about it here Mon, 03/28/2016 - 14:00
For more details about the complex landing sequence on Mars see my answer to Did the landing sequence of the Mars lander Schiaparelli really have to be so complex?
which I’ve also written up as an article for my Science20 blog here: Why Do Spacecraft Like ESA's Schiaperelli Crash On Mars So Easily?
I can’t compete with these amazing photos :). But just my 2 cents, here is a photo I took of an inflated mattress, of course wouldn’t need any photoshop, just to put it in the stream and take a pho...
(more)I can’t compete with these amazing photos :). But just my 2 cents, here is a photo I took of an inflated mattress, of course wouldn’t need any photoshop, just to put it in the stream and take a photo. But it actually got blown there in the wind. I left it outside my house as I use it sometimes in good weather in place of a patio. But left it overnight one night by mistake. We get strong gales here, and next day after a gale, it was lying in the river, looking like something out of hitchhiker’s guide to the galaxy.
Then, this isn’t mine, a two suns photo by Vladimir Brezina
Can you work out what it is? It is not photoshopped. For the answer, see Debunked: This is a photograph of two suns on my Debunking Doomsday blog
Then there is this photo of a waterfall flowing upwards. It’s common where I live, when there are very strong winds.
It can be more dramatic than that. That’s the best photo I have though, it’s a photo taken from the ferry from the Isle of Mull where I live to Oban on the mainland.
But photos by others: here is a video of an upside down waterfall in Iceland
And in Shetland
Another video here
See more of the video here: Storm Henry forces Isle of Mull waterfall upside down – video
Okay mine isn’t an impressive geological feature like Olympus Mons or Valles Marineres. For me, it’s a rather unremarkable seeming crater, Richardson crater near the south pole. Let me explain why.
...
(more)Okay mine isn’t an impressive geological feature like Olympus Mons or Valles Marineres. For me, it’s a rather unremarkable seeming crater, Richardson crater near the south pole. Let me explain why.
First this shows where it is. It is close to the south pole - this is an elevation map and I’ve trimmed it down to the southern hemisphere. You can see Olympus Mons as the obvious large mountain just right of middle, and Hellas Basin as the big depression middle left. Richardson crater is about half way between them and much further south.
Here is a close up - see all those ripples of sand dunes on the crater floor?
Link to this location on Google Mars
Well it’s not the ripples themselves that are of special interest, Mars is covered in many sand dune fields like that planet wide - but little dark spots that form on them which you can see if you look really closely from orbit.
Well, would you know, it is a possible habitat for life and it is quite possible that Earth life could reproduce there. That’s so surprising I know, as one of the coldest places on Mars. And it gets hardly any attention in Mars news stories for some reason. Lots of discussion of the Warm Seasonal Flows, but this one is only mentioned in very specialist papers by Mars researchers who specialize in the study of possible habitats on Mars. I don’t know why nobody else makes much of it.
First, early in the year, you get dry ice geysers - which we can’t image directly, but see the dark patches that form as a result and are pretty sure this is what happens:
So that would be cool enough, to be able to observe them, video them and study them close up. I hope the rover would be equipped with the capability to take real time video. Those are widely known and many scientists would tell you how great it would be to look at them up close.
But most exciting is what happens later in the year. It has these “flow like features” that grow during the year. The dark spots that you get in the aftermath of the geysers - you’d think would just sit there on the surface and gradually fade away ready to repeat the cycle next year. But no. Something very strange happens. Dark fingers being to form and creep down the surface as in this animation. Very quickly too (for Mars).
(animated version)
Flow-like features on Dunes in Richardson Crater, Mars. - detail. This flow moves approximately 39 meters in 26 days between the last two frames in the sequenceBTW it was hard to align these images exactly. I cut them out from the raw data, and aligned them by eye - unlike the RSLs there aren’t any widely shared images of them.
I’ve done my best to register them with each other but I couldn’t figure out a way to do it automatically, indeed, they are taken at slightly different angles also so there is no correct registration that puts each frame entirely in sync with the next one. So that’s why you may see some alignment shifts from one image to the next. It’s the best I can do. The general idea is clear enough.
All the models for these features, to date, involve some form of water.
That’s not as surprising as you might think. The same thing happens in Antarctica - if you have clear ice, then you get a layer of pure water half a meter below the ice. On Mars it would be about 5 - 10 cms below the surface and initially a few mms thick, and build up to 1–2 cms in thickness as the season progresses. The amazing thing is it would be fresh water at 0 C. That might seem rather chilly to you - but for many microbes it would be like a paradise on Mars.
The thing is any water on Mars exposed to the surface would evaporate quickly, so quickly that there would be none left. If ice melts there, it turns directly to water vapour because the atmosphere is a laboratory vacuum, it’s so thin.
But - water beneath a layer of transparent ice - that’s a different matter. The water is trapped by the ice so stays liquid. And what’s more, if they model it assuming clear ice like the ice in Antarctica they find that the ice there gets enough heat from the sun in the day to keep it liquid through the night to the next day so the layer can actually grow from one day to the next (ice is an excellent insulator).
The models are pretty clear. If Mars has transparent ice like the ice in Antarctica, then it should have layers of liquid fresh water about half a meter below the surface and a couple of cms thick in late spring to summer in this region.
The only question here is whether clear ice forms on Mars in Mars conditions. We can’t tell that really from models, the only way is to go there and find out for ourselves.
Blue wall of an Iceberg on Jökulsárlón, Iceland. On the Earth, Blue ice like this forms as a result of air bubbles squeezed out of glacier ice. This has the right optical and thermal properties to act as a solid state greenhouse, trapping a layer of liquid water that forms 0.1 to 1 meters below the surface. In Möhlmann's model, if ice with similar optical and thermal properties forms on Mars, it could form a layer of liquid water centimeters to decimeters thick, which would form 5 - 10 cms below the surface.
In his model, first the ice forms a translucent layer - then as summer approaches, the solid state greenhouse effect raises the temperature of a layer below the surface to 0°C, so melting it. This is a process familiar on the Earth for instance in Antarctica. On Earth, in similar conditions, the surface ice remains frozen, but a layer of liquid water forms from 0.1 to 1 meters below the surface. It forms preferentially in "blue ice".
On Mars, in his model, the melting layer is 5 to 10 cms below the surface. The liquid water layer starts off millimeters thick in their model, and can develop to be centimeters thick as the season progresses. The effect of the warming is cumulative over successive sols. Once formed, the liquid layer can persist overnight. Subsurface liquid water layers like this can form with surface temperatures as low as -56°C.
If the ice covers a heat absorbing layer at the right depth, the melted layer can form more rapidly, within a single sol, and can evolve to be tens of centimeters in thickness. In their model this starts as fresh water, insulated from the surface conditions by the overlaying ice layers - and then mixes with any salts to produce salty brines which would then flow beyond the edges to form the extending dark edges of the flow like features.
Later in the year, pressure can build up and cause formation of mini water geysers which may possibly explain the "white collars" that form around the flow like features towards the end of the season - in their model this is the result of liquid water erupting in mini water geysers and then freezing as white pure water ice
This provides:
If salt grains are present in the ice, then this gives conditions for brines to form, which would increase the melt volume and the duration of the melting. The brines then flow down the slope and extend the dark patch formed by the debris from the Geyser, so creating the extensions of the flow like features.
They mention a couple of caveats for their model, because the surface conditions on Mars at these locations is unknown. First it requires conditions for bare and optically transparent ice fields on Mars translucent to depths of several centimeters, and it's an open question whether this can happen, but there is nothing to rule it out either. Then, the other open question is whether their assumption of low thermal conductivity of the ice, preventing escape of the heat to the surface, is valid on Mars.
The process works with blue ice on Earth - but we can't say yet what forms the ice actually takes in these Martian conditions.
This solid state greenhouse effect process favours equator facing slopes. Also, somewhat paradoxically, it favours higher latitudes, close to the poles, over lower latitudes, because it needs conditions where surface ice can form on Mars to thicknesses of tens of centimeters. (The examples at Richardson crater are at latitude -72°, longitude 179.4°, so only 18° from the south pole.
There is no in situ data yet for these locations, of course, to test the hypothesis. Though some of the predictions for their model could be confirmed by satellite observations.
Interfacial liquid layers model
Another model for these southern hemisphere features involves ULI water (undercooled liquid water) which forms as a thin layer over surfaces and can melt at well below the usual melting point of ice. In Mohlmann's sandwich model, then the interfacial water layer forms on the surfaces of solar heated grains in the ice, which then flows together down the slope. Calculations of downward flow of water shows that several litres a day of water could be supplied to the seepage flows in this way.
The idea then is that this ULI water would be the water source for liquid brines which then flow down the surface to form the features.
That would still be interesting as you end up having flowing liquid water on Mars, several litres a day what’s more.
Those are the only two models so far. So it does seem very likely that there is liquid water here, and even with the interfacial liquid layers, the water starts off as fresh water beneath the ice, or possibly salty (in either model) if there are salt grains in the ice for the water to pick up.
It would be great if somehow we could land a rover near there to travel over to these flows and study them close up with in situ life detection instruments. Though it would need to be sterilized very carefully, we must be absolutely sure that we can’t introduce Earth life there or it would destroy much of the science value for exobiology and might even make whatever is there extinct before we can study it if there is life there.
To see how whatever there is there could be made extinct, easily, think of the possibility of some early form of life, e.g. without proteins or DNA, based on RNA only (one theory, the RNA world theory). All earlier forms of life seem to have been made extinct by DNA life on Earth, but they might still exist on Mars. If so they would be extremely vulnerable to introduced Earth life. This is just one scenario according to which introduced Earth life could cause problems or even completely destroy much of the exobiology science value of Mars.
Note that there are flow like features in the Northern hemisphere, but these form at much colder temperatures for some reason, around -90°C - the two hemispheres on Mars have a very different climate. The northern hemisphere has shorter warmer winters (due to Mars’s eccentric orbit), and a lower elevation, but the flow like features there form at times when the surface temperatures are lower than in Richardson crater. There are several different mechanisms for the northern hemisphere flow like features, not all the models for those involve liquid water, and the ones that do involve very cold water. So the Richardson crater ones are the surest bet, seems to me, for a habitable flow like feature.
There are many other seasonal features on Mars but most are caused by dust, wind, or dry ice. The Warm Seasonal Flows or RSLs are the best known, of the ones that may provide habitats for life, indeed there is indirect detection of water flowing there through hydrated salts, those also seem a pretty sure bet for liquid brine but the question there is, is the brine warm enough, for life, and if it is warm enough is it too salty or is it fresh enough for life?
In the case of the Richardson Crater flow like features - especially if they are indeed cms thick layers below clear ice - they will definitely be both warm enough and fresh enough for life. The interfacial liquid layers also seem promising because of the way the models predict them to flow together into a liquid stream of water that then picks up salts on its way out.
This is just one of many habitats suggested on the Mars surface. But I like to draw attention to it because it is one of the least publicized, yet in some ways most interesting potential habitats because of the potential for fresh water at 0 C. As far as I know it is the only surface habitat so far that has the potential to be so warm and also to have fresh water. For some of the others, see
NEED FOR ROBOTIC EXPLORATION FIRST
This is just one of many possible locations for life on Mars. But one of the most promising I think since it is habitable for Earth life. All these are places we can explore by telerobotics using increasingly capable robots, also explore using robots controlled from Earth.
There is no need to send humans to these places as quickly as possible. It won't help to make us multiplanetary, but it may mean we miss out on discoveries about the origins of life, and other lifeforms. Imagine if you could learn about life on a planet or in the ocean of an icy moon around another star? Even if it was just extraterrestrial microbes or lichens, imagine how exciting that discovery would be? Well Mars, Europa and Enceladus may be like exoplanets and exomoons in our own solar system, they may be as interesting as that. We don't know until we study them close up.
It's the aspect of our exploration of the solar system that gets most interest of all from the general public I think. And if we did find an early form of life, or something significantly different, it would be the greatest discovery in biology since the discovery of evolution, or perhaps the discovery of the helical nature of DNA, of that order of importance. Who knows what implications it would have, if you think of how much of modern biology comes from those two discoveries.
If we introduce Earth microbes to them, accidentally or intentionally, this may well be irreversible. It's the irreversibility that's the issue here. If it is biologically reversible, not so much of a problem. But if irreversible, that means it would change those places for all future time, not just for us, but for our descendants and all future civilizations that arise in our solar system, they won't be able to make the discoveries they could make by studying these places as they are now, without Earth microbes introduced to them. They also won't be able to transform them in other ways if they decide they wish to introduce a different mix of microbes from the ones we brought there.
I think we just know far too little to make such a decision for all those future generations and civilizations and indeed for ourselves. At present anyway. Future discoveries of course can change this.
WHAT WE COULD LEARN - SOME EXAMPLES
All possibilities here are of exceptional interest for biology. If there are habitats for life at all on Mars, whether inhabited or uninhabited, then biologists world wide will want to study them as they are now, and the results in the best case could be revolutionary for biology.
Here is a list of some of them, for the cites see my Candidate lifeforms for Mars in my Places on Mars to Look for Microbes, Lichens, ...:
Most of these candidates, apart from the lichens, are single cell microbes (or microbial films). The closest Mars analogue habitats on Earth such as the hyper arid core of the Atacama desert are inhabited by microbes, with no multicellular life. So even if multicellular life evolved on Mars, it seems that most life on Mars is likely to be microbial.
For more about the value of Mars for biology and implications of sending humans there, see
OVER PROTECTION OF MARS THESIS
Robert Zubrin has said he thinks that there may well be habitats for Earth life on Mars, but that if so, those habitats have the same life as Earth so there is no problem contaminating it with Earth life. The astrobiologist Dirk Schulze-Makuch and the astronomer Alberto G. Fairén published an article "The over protection of Mars" also putting forward this view which got a lot of publicity. Few people have read the response "Appropriate protection of Mars" refuting it, by the current and previous planetary protection officers. Both papers were published in Nature. They are behind firewalls but you can read a summary of them both in The Overprotection of Mars? - Astrobiology Magazine
The astrobiologists who wrote "Over protection of Mars" think that life on Mars is going to be pretty much identical to Earth life in all respects. But that is a minority view. It could equally well be very different indeed. Their reasoning is that Earth and Mars have shared a lot of material via meteorites. But that only happens after really huge impacts on Earth like the Chicxulub meteorite 66 million years ago.
To get to Mars a microbe in the warm tropical sea which this asteroid hit will have to survive first the shock of impact. Then it has to survive 100 years minimum in space (when first pieces get to Mars) in the extreme cold of space, vacuum conditions and solar storms and cosmic radaiation. Then it has to survive the shock of impact on Mars, then it has to find a habitat once there, and it has to be sufficiently pre-adapted to that habitat to survive and reproduce. It also has to be capable of forming a single species ecosystem - or else, to be able to survive in collaboration with whatever microbes are there already.
When I was young, in the sixties and seventies, most scientists thought panspermia was a daft idea. The rather eccentric scientists Fred Hoyle and Chandra Wickramasinghe put it forward and no-one else believed them. Now it's gone the other way. People speak about panspermia as if it has been proven. But though we have found some remarkable extremophiles, that just possibly might survive such a journey, it still remains just a theory. We don't yet have a single example of a microbe that has been transferred between planets.
It might never have happened. It might have happened but only in the early solar system in the first few hundred million years after the Moon formed. Or it might be that it happened as recently as 66 million years ago.
Any life that got there 66 million years agp also has had all that time to evolve in the very different Martian conditions. It does now seem possible that some very remarkable polyextremophile microbes able to withstand, cold, vacuum, impact shock, radiation etc, could get there. Chrooccocidiopsis is a good candidate, a polyextremophile also forms single species ecosystems, anaerobe, survive almost anywhere on Earth.
However, it doesn't seem likely at all that e.g. any lichens have got from Earth to Mars in that way. Yet they could survive on Mars. Depending what types of habitats actually exist on Mars, there may be many other lifeforms that could survive on Mars and yet may have no chance to get there on a meteorite.
I think that for most astrobiologists, Dirk Schulze-Makuch and Alberto Fairén have presented a rather extraordinary hypothesis about Mars which would need to be proved. There would be bound to be at least some differences. And if we did find life there almost identical to Earth life, that itself would be so extraordinary we would want to study it carefully to find out how that happened. The last you'd want to do in that situation is to introduce lots of Earth microbes to confuse the situation.
And it is well possible that Mars has its own unique lifeforms. Even if some Earth life got there, it may well play nicely with whatever is there already. For instance a green algae such as Chroococcidiopsis might well play nicely with existing life on Mars. That would not mean that all Earth life is as congenial to life there.
IDEA THAT LIFE ADAPTED TO MARS COULD NOT BE VULNERABLE TO EARTH LIFE
Robert Zubrin says this frequently in his talks about colonizing Mars. But the idea just doesn't pan out if you look at it in any detail. First, any life on Mars may be driven extinct by Earth life. It doesn't follow at all that because it is adapted to Mars that it is not going to go extinct. The easiest way to see that is that is if it is some earlier form of life, such as RNA world life.
Perhaps some microbes like Chroococcidiopsis would not make early life extinct, after all it is a primary producer, it does not eat other lifeforms and the oxygen it produces as a byproduct would be no problem on Mars as it has a very oxygenated surface already with perchlorates in place of chlorides and even hydrogen peroxide - lifeforms that can withstand those won’t be bothered by a bit of oxygen.
But we don't have any early life left on Earth and our earliest life we do have is far too complex to have evolved in one go. So if it still exists on Mars, then it may be very vulnerable to whatever made it extinct on Earth.
Robert Zubrin gives the analogy of sharks out competing lions in their native habitat which is absurd. Sharks can’t even survive for minutes in the African savannah. But we have many microbes that can survive just fine on Mars if the suggested habitats exist. For a different analogy, rabbits and rats out compete wallabies, and many invasive plants out compete native plants. So it just depends which species you use for your analogy. We don't have problems with sharks competing with lions but we do have problems with rabbits competing with wallabies. Who is to say which is the right analogy for Mars? We just don't know until we find out more.
Also he has another argument that he brings up in all his Mars colonization talks - that it should be easy to tell whether life is from Mars or from Earth using the analogy of anthrax. Yes there are some lifeforms we have sequenced and would recognize on Mars. Anthrax is an example. But only 100,000 of one trillion microbe species, 0.00001% have had gene sequences published. It's not at all practical to have an "inventory" of every single microbial species on the spaceship.
So, no, we would not know if a microbe on Mars comes from Earth or Mars, so long as it shares an ancestor with Earth, even as long ago as well over three billion years ago, when the archaea first evolved. The Origins of Archaea and Bacteria
Also the archaea swap DNA fragments readily with each other through horizontal gene transfer (by Gene Transfer Agents). This is an ancient mechanism which works between the most distant most unrelated archaea. So if there is a common ancestor, even from 4 billion years ago, the chances are that after introducing Earth life you have a hybrid of Earth and Mars DNA for any life that is related to Earth life.
MYTH OF AUTOMATIC TERRAFORMING
This is the idea that if you add microbes to a planet, no matter what they are, that it will automatically turn into a second Earth or the closest to Earth that's possible for the planet. I call that the "myth of automatic terraforming". To see why that is not automatic, think of a future Earth too hot for life, a billion years into the future. It would just have extremophiles.
Just possibly there might be some biological way to do something about this to cool down that future Earth using microbes - but why would just adding a lot of microbes from present day Earth cool it down automatically? If it could sort itself out, it would have done it already. Mars may well have life already, and if so, it has not terraformed it, and why then would life from Earth terraform it if its own native life has not?
Adding life to a planet could push it in many different ways and there is no way of knowing if it would make it better or worse. The one thing it definitely does do though is to close off future options. After you've done that, you can never roll back, if you later find that one of the lifeforms you introduced is a major problem on the planet. Not with microbes. It is hard enough to roll back higher lifeforms like rabbits, cane toads, rats, Kudzu or Japaanese knotweed. Even camels are a problem in Australia since the continent is so huge. How could you roll back a problem microbe from a planet as large as the land area of Earth?
What will you do if you have introduced some problem microbe? Maybe you want to increase oxygen levels but you introduced aerobes that eat the oxygen? Maybe you want to increase methane levels but you accidentally introduced methanotropes that eat it? Maybe you introduced secondary consumers that eat the algae that you want to use to introduce oxygen. Many things could go wrong as a result of microbes you introduced by mistake.
As one simple example of how microbes introduced by mistake could mess things up quickly, some bacteria convert water to calcite, and if you introduce them by mistake, you might find that these microbes have converted all the underwater aquifers to cement. That's an example from Cassie Conley, current planetary protection officer for the USA - she is a microbiologist / astrobiologist.
Going to Mars Could Mess Up the Hunt for Alien Life
I think this is based originally on Lovelock’s Gaia hypothesis in its strong form, the idea that life makes planets more habitable for itself. The weak Gaia hypothesis that the Earth has many systems that work together to help keep it in a habitable state, mediated by life, is widely accepted. But the idea that such a system arises automatically on all terrestrial planets with life is not at all universally accepted. That’s the “strong Gaia hypothesis”. Some things about our own planet are puzzling, for instance, why did photosynthetic life evolve at just the right time to turn a CO2 into oxygen, to cool our planet to keep it habitable, instead of arising too soon, to make it too cold, or too late, leaving it too hot? Then in science fiction the strong Gaia hypothesis has been exaggerated to mythology, the idea that introducing life to a planet not only helps keep it habitable for that life, but that it also automatically makes it habitable for humans too. Why? Even if the strong Gaia hypothesis was true - well the way to make Mars the most habitable it could be for life would be for methanogens to evolve to convert all the atmosphere to methane, which is a strong greenhouse gas. That would make Mars nearly as warm as it could be, using natural methods, though if the strong Gaia hypothesis was true, then surely also the life would evolve to generate stronger and stronger greenhouse gases on Mars to keep it warm. That would make it more habitable, but not an environment humans could live in. I think few would subscribe to such a strong version of the Gaia hypothesis. But the idea that life would automatically make Mars Earth like is even more absurd than that one, I think.
Introducing Earth life to Mars would probably do nothing to make it more habitable, not without some long term plan, mega engineering, and careful selection of which lifeforms to introduce when. And it would probably need artificial greenhouse gases or large planet scale mirrors or both to remain warm enough long term. In a thousands of years project that then goes on and on, trillions of dollars a year keeping it habitable.
I think it is great to think about terraforming ideas, yes. It helps us learn a lot about our planet and exoplanets and Mars itself to do those thought experiments. But as for practical experiments, let’s start a lot smaller. We haven’t yet managed a closed system ecosystem the size of Biosphere II on Earth. Once we have very small closed system ecosystems on Earth, then we can try it in space also, for instance in the possibly vast lunar caves, maybe as large as an O’Neil cylinder, a hundred kilometers long and kilometers wide. Then we can work up to larger maybe city dome or Stanford Torus type ecosystems. Eventually we can try Terraforming and paraterraforming the Moon. Let’s leave off ideas to terraform planets until we know a bit more.
And - let’s keep Mars pristine for scienctific study at least until we know what is there. Otherwise we may mess it up for future transformation, if we do try to change it, and we may also spoil the opportunity to make the next big discoveries in exobiology. It may be the equivalent of an exoplanet on our own doorstep in terms of the discoveries we could make there. So let’s keep it like that, not try to make it into a pale shadow of Earth before we know what’s there.
I fully understand how those who are keen on colonization of space want to land humans on Mars as soon as possible. They’ve been looking forward to this for decades some of them. They may be so keen on this that they think that it is far more important than any discovery in biology.
But we aren’t talking about preserving some obscure microbe only of interest to microbiologists. What we discover there could lead to the biggest discoveries in biology of this century. It could be as big a discovery as the discovery of evolution or the spiral structure of DNA.
It’s only because introducing life to Mars is irreversible that we are in this situation. Their keenness to colonize Mars doesn’t give Elon Musk or Robert Zubrin or anyone else the right to make an irreversible decision about Mars for the rest of humanity. We are in it together and we all have a right to a say in this decision. The situation is particularly acute because there is a significant risk of a crash of the first human missions to Mars if we do send humans to the surface. See Why Do Spacecraft Crash On Mars So Easily? A crash of a human occupied ship would be the end of planetary protection of Mars for science.
I think that our objective for humans to Mars should be humans to Mars orbit and possibly Phobos and Deimos, exploring the surface via telepresence. And as for our first experiments in biological closed systems, paraterraforming, commerce from space etc, I think all of those should be done on the Moon and in NEOs, leading later to exploration throughout the solar system. But the places of most interest for the search for life need to be protected indefinitely, until we know enough to make informed decisions about them. The top priorities there are Mars, Europa, Enceladus, and then there are others that need to be investigated before we know if they are vulnerable such as Ceres.
For more on this, see this section of my Case for Moon First (and following) wjocj may give pause for thought:
For more about the flow like features habitat, and many other possible habitats on Mars, see my
(notice I put the Richardson flow-like features on the cover - for me, this is the most exciting feature of all on Mars for exobiology)
It’s also available to read online for free at Places on Mars to Look for Microbes, Lichens, ... and the section on the Richardson flow-like features is here: Flow like features
See also my books:
"MOON FIRST Why Humans on Mars Right Now Are Bad for Science", available on kindle, and also to read for free online.
Case For Moon First: Gateway to Entire Solar System - Open Ended Exploration, Planetary Protection at its Heart - kindle edition or Read it online on my website (free).
If we are unlucky, the 20 meters Chelyabinsk meteorite still could not be detected if it came from that direction though we’d see it at least a day or two in advance in any other direction. However...
(more)If we are unlucky, the 20 meters Chelyabinsk meteorite still could not be detected if it came from that direction though we’d see it at least a day or two in advance in any other direction. However if it was a bit larger we’d have seen it several months before. It was in our night sky, just too faint to see.
So I think that would be around the limit. A Chelyabinsk type meteorite impacting at an angle like that is an air burst.
The Chelyabinsk meteorite came in at a shallow angle 16 degrees, half megaton.
An impact at that angle even over a city would mainly cause broken glass and such like - could hurt people near to windows as for Chelyabinsk.
However as you can see it is just chance that it came in at a shallow angle. If shifted a bit more to the right in that diagram it could hit the Earth more directly at a steep angle. That would have been much more dangerous for humans. It was about a one megaton explosion, slightly less, harmless as an air burst. But if it happened near the ground it could be devastating.
“For a 1-megaton explosion the optimum burst height is about 1700 meters (a mile) and widespread structural damage occurs for any blast below about 5000 m (3 mi)
I'm a little surprised that something only 20 meters across could be so dangerous, it did have a high relative velocity though, 15 km /sec. Well above average for Earth meteorites though not as high as short period comets
There’s a webinar about it here:
I was interested also to hear that it's really hard to model whether or not you get tsunami for ocean impacts.
I’m in the middle of writing an article about this topic here
How did we miss the Chelyabinsk asteroid? by Robert Walker on Debunking Doomsday
We could detect most asteroids this small even from the direction of the sun well in advance if we had a space telescope operating between Earth and the Sun, close to Venus’s orbit and there’s a plan to send such a telescope into orbit - it just needs funding. $450 million would do it. It would take less than a decade to spot many of the asteroids.
The risk of hitting a populated area is very low because first of all, most of the Earth’s surface is water, and then of the land area, most is uninhabited or sparsely inhabited. Then many of the impacts would be at shallow angles because you have to hit Earth pretty much dead center to get a steep impact.
So - the next asteroid to hit Earth of this size will probably not kill anyone, but it could be hazardous, similar to Chelyabinsk and it could be much worse.
This is by far the most likely size of asteroid to hit us as the smaller ones are much more numerous. We are probably hit by asteroids this size roughly every 80 years I’ve heard as a ballpark figure. Which does not mean that we are safe for the next 80 years. We could be hit tomorrow or not be hit by another one for centuries.
If we can find them well in advance, there are many ways we can deflect them. If we can warn of them a day or two in advance that is still time to evacuate the impact zone. ~Detection is the key and this is definitely an addressable problem, it mainly needs funding. Astronomers know what to do to find them.
The risk though shouldn’t be over played. It’s more likely that you are killed by a tornado or by lightning and traffic accidents and health issues are far more important statistically. But it is a preventable type of accident, can warn to the minute when it will happen and can actually deflect it given enough time. It’s surely well worth finding the funding to detect and deflect them.
Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
This is a re-run of a hoax from 29th July this year, with a new date in the title of the video. The video was originally launched with the title "Why the World will End Surely on July 29th - Shocki...
(more)This is a re-run of a hoax from 29th July this year, with a new date in the title of the video. The video was originally launched with the title "Why the World will End Surely on July 29th - Shocking Facts". Journalists ran it as a story in many of the online news sources that don’t do much fact checking, but most shockingly, it was run in the online version of the Telegraph. This is a respected mainstream broadsheet newspaper in the UK. The story said that the world would end on the 29th July 2016.
The Telegraph version of the story had a count down timer to the end of the world at the top of the page (now removed) and a stream of fake tweets about our impending doom. You may be able to spot its humorous tone, but the vulnerable miss this. I got many comments from scared people on my articles, asking questions such as when it would happen in their time zone. For them it was deadly serious. They thought that the world was going to end when that count down timer reached zero.
This is the image used by the Telegraph story. It's become one of the generic images used for doomsday stories. It’s actually a fuzzed out version of this image of Cassiopeia A, a supernova remnant 11,000 light years away by the Chandra X Ray observatory. Nothing at all to do with Earth or our solar system!
A fuzzed out image of Cassiopeia A was originally used as a cover image for stories about the "Big rip" theory. The only connection with the big rip theory is that the research for it involved study of the red shifts of distant supernovae, and I've no idea why they fuzzed it out. This image is now often used for Doomsday stories, with no connection with supernovae and no explanation of why it was used, as for the Telegraph article.
The only basis for the date in the story was the video title text typed in by an anonymous youtube video uploader, "Why the World will End Surely on July 29th - Shocking Facts" and a custom youtube thumbnail they made for their video. There is no way to know who did this, as their identity is hidden behind their youtube channel name.The video itself was an unauthorized copy of someone else's work, using amateur graphics, elaborating on events described in the book of Revelations, one of the most enigmatic books in the Bible. This book is so easy of misinterpretation that the Eastern Orthodox church has excluded it from the list of Bible passages that can be read from a lectern.
This story, based entirely on a date in the title typed in by some anonymous youtube user for their unauthorized copy of someone else's video ran as a major "Doomsday story" on many news sites online, and the video racked up six million views.
That's enough to earn the anonymous perpetrator an estimated $8000 to $22,000 from Youtube ads revenue, and it accrued 16,000 subscribers. This is for a youtube channel "End of Times Prophecy" with only that single video on it with different titles. They have now changed the doomsday date to a date in October and continue to accrue views and ad revenue.
This clearly encourages unscrupulous hoaxers to create Doomsday videos which scare vulnerable people. So I’ve done a petition for youtube is to stop running ads on Doomsday videos altogether.
This is not an unusual step as they already do halt ads on videos when they think it would be immoral to earn anything from them themselves. I would say that this falls into that category. It's immoral to earn from videos targeted at vulnerable people who become scared and suicidal as a result of watching them. So please just halt ads from these videos. Those who genuinely believe that the world will end can still upload their videos, so it is not any kind of restriction on freedom of speech, just a decision on what forms of income are morally acceptable for youtube ads.
PETITIONS ON Change.org
If you agree on this point, do sign and share the petitions which I started on The world’s platform for change. They are:
PLEA TO JOURNALISTS AND SCIENTISTS
I don't think any of this can be dealt with by legislation. Instead I have several pleas to journalists and scientists, and also a recommendation for youtube.
The main plea for journalists is just to be aware that your stories are read by vulnerable scared people. Imagine that a ten year old girl is reading your story and going to ask her mother or father about it, and then write your story for her, and that might help.
More specifically, do avoid using words like Doomsday and Apocalypse in the title or the text itself for that matter. Those who get easily scared by such things sometimes send me links to stories about e.g. financial crisis predictions after Brexit, and if the story uses the word Doomsday in the title, they will ask me "is this something to be scared of". They are worried that it is some sign of the end of the world.
Of course this is a perfectly respectable literary trope, the use of hyperbole for dramatic effect. There is nothing wrong with it per se. But those particular words are very scary to some people and I think are best just avoided altogether.
Also please consider writing debunking stories. As the Independent showed, a debunking story can often get more clicks and views than the doomsday ones. Such stories can be written in an engaging fashion. Use all the power of language, and vivid imagery, but use it for the purpose of debunking, rather than to promote doomsday ideas. There are plenty of doomsday stories published every month and if we had an equal number of doomsday debunking stories published each month it would go a long way towards addressing this issue.
DEBUNKING STORIES
Those who worry about these things often tell me that they can't find any doomsday debunking stories apart from mine, since 2012. Please consider writing stories that they can read so they don't get the very false impression that everyone thinks the world is about to end.
If you aren't sure how to write a Doomsday debunking story my outline for a future book. Debunking Doomsday may give some ideas, as it's organized by subject with links to my articles and answers.
Then for scientists writing about asteroids, I suggest that you try running things past anyone vulnerable, for instance a ten year old, and find out what their take home message is from your presentation. You might be surprised about how it differs from the message that scientists like yourself and your colleagues get.
This is a shortened version of my article: Journalists - Please Fact Check Your "Doomsday" News Stories -They Terrify Young Children And Vulnerable People
I have just posted this to my quora blog Debunking Doomsday here:
Yes the basic problem is that Mars has double the gravitational field of the Moon. That might not seem such a big difference but the way the rocket equation works it’s an enormous difference, the l...
(more)Yes the basic problem is that Mars has double the gravitational field of the Moon. That might not seem such a big difference but the way the rocket equation works it’s an enormous difference, the lunar module would have no chance at all landing there.
Also as well as that, on the Moon you can orbit as close as you like to the surface and the only problem is that you have to avoid hitting the mountains. You can adjust your orbit, wait if necessary, try to land and abort, take your time about it.
On Mars, once you start the landing sequence, once you hit the atmosphere, you are committed. You are streaking through the atmosphere at kilometers per second.
Also the lunar module can be any shape you like, as there is no atmosphere, with a flimsy skin. A Mars lander has to have an aeroshell, with a conventional type landing. It can’t use its rockets until it discards the aeroshell. So the initial slowing down is more or less uncontrolled, except, you can tilt the aeroshell to give it some aerodynamical control But not the control you have for a lunar landing.
All that makes it impossible to use a lunar module type landing on Mars.
So then what about a parachute landing such as they use on Earth? Well you can use a parachute, and I think all the landers to date have used one. But the problem with a parachute, even a very large one, is that the atmosphere is so thin that you are still going at hundreds of miles an hour when you hit the ground. That is just too much of a hard landing for most spacecraft to survive though specially hardened penetrators can.
So, that’s two of the stages you have to have for conventional landings on Mars. First the aeroshell and aerobraking. Then the parachute, because it would just take so much fuel to do all the slowing down using rockets.
See Schiaparelli: the ExoMars Entry, Descent and Landing Demonstrator Module
So then you have to find a way to slow it down from those hundreds of miles an hour to a slow enough speed for a soft landing.
So that’s why you then have the retro propulsion stage for most rockets. But you have to take care because if you do retropropulsion when the parachute is still attached you will get tangled up in the parachute. So you have to release the parachute first before you fire the rockets. So the moment of parachute release is very very important, to get that right. It seems that Schiaparelli for some reason released the parachute a bit too early, which was the start of its problems.
Now even after that, you still are not quite home and dry. The problem is that unlike a landing on the Moon you have no control over where exactly you land. Instead you have a landing ellipse. This is the one for Schiaparelli, 100 km by 15 km
There is no chance at all of steering it during the landing, except possibly in the last few minutes, it is just totally dependent on whatever the atmospheric conditions are as you land. The Mars atmosphere is very thin, but it also varies hugely in density between day and night and there are lots of variations depending on altitude, temperature etc and it is hard to predict exactly.
There’s also the uncertainty of the speed and position of the spacecraft as it enters the atmosphere, there’s always going to be some error there too.
So unlike a lunar landing where Neil Armstrong could decide exactly where to set down the lunar rover and if necessary just fly a bit further to find a good spot, on Mars you have to be able to land safely wherever you happen to be in that huge landing ellipse. Or you take a risk that if you hit a boulder, that’s the end of the mission.
Viking 1 landed not far from a boulder which would have been the end of the mission if it had landed on it
They deal with that as best they can by choosing regions on Mars that are very flat, ideally you want to have hundreds of square kilometers that are pretty much completely flat with no boulders or steep slopes. That’s why Curiosity had to drive for so long before it got to Mount Sharp. It wasn’t safe to land it any closer to Mount Sharp because it would then risk landing on a big boulder or on a steep slope.
Even so the ground will be uneven and have small boulders. So you have to decide what to do about that. You could build in some smarts into the rocket to get it to fly sideways to avoid rocks, but so far nobody has tried to do that. They just let it land wherever it lands and build a robust system that can deal with irregularities like that.
So that’s the reason for the inflated airbags for Spirit, Opportunity and Pathfinder, the skycrane of Curiosity and the crushable base of Schiaparelli - to deal with the tricky last few meters lowering down onto rough terrain.
How Spirit and Opportunity landed on Mars.
Now there are two ideas of ways to simplify this process. The first is supersonic retropropulsion. That’s what Elon Musk plans to do for SpaceX.
Conceptually it is about as simple as you can get. The rocket doesn’t have an aeroshell or parachute or anything. It just decelerates.
Early artist’s impression of supersonic retropropulsion
It slows down by coming in very very close to the surface in the thicker atmosphere at huge speeds. Its rockets switch on when it is still traveling at supersonic speeds. It skims across the surface below the height of the higher mountains. Indeed if landing in the Valles Marineres, big rift valley, rift in the Martian highlands, it would need to skim down between the walls of the canyon.
All this time the rocket is firing and it is also affected by the friction of the atmosphere. And then it comes to a vertical landing.
SpaceX has actually done this on Earth. Their barge landings of the first stage actually have to use supersonic retropropulsion and what’s more, they can achieve a pinpoint landing as well - when it works. So it can certainly be done, but it is rather risky and tricky to do on Mars with the very thin atmosphere there and the atmosphere far more variable in density than Earth’s atmosphere too.
The other way to do it is to use absolutely enormous parachutes. If the parachute is big enough, you can have a conventional landing just as for Earth. Simply use aeroshell, and then parachute, and parachute down and the parachute will slow you down enough so you get a soft landing.
The problem is deploying those parachutes and making sure they work. You can work it out with computer models, test tiny parachutes etc. But at some poitn you have teo test it with real parachutes. The parachutes on Mars so far were tested by firing rockets in suborbital trajectories and then releasing parachutes and required many tests.
To make even larger supersonic parachutes will require many expensive rocket tests. NASA are working on this with their Low-Density Supersonic Decelerator - Wikipedia
NASA "Flying Saucer" Supersonic Parachute Fails Test [Video]
I don’t think their plan is to use a parachute all the way down. Rather it is to land larger masses, of up to 5 tons so would probably still need a complex landing system.
This is just a rough idea of how it works. For more on ways of landing on Mars with supersonic retropropulsion or large supersonic parachutes etc, hear Robert Manning talk about it here Mon, 03/28/2016 - 14:00
Another approach is to send a penetrator. This has been tried in a small way with the Mars Polar Lander. It carried two miniature probes called Deep Space 2 which had their own separate aeroshells, entered the atmosphere separately from it, and hit the surface at 400 miles per hour, designed to do their final slow down through penetrating the Mars surface.
Deep Space 2 failed, they don't know for sure, different hypotheses. Mars Polar Lander also failed. But this is interesting because it shows that we can also have several smaller spacecraft as part of a single mission to Mars - an idea that has never been tried before or since to date.
Especially in the more distant future, we could send lots of miniature rovers on one mission like some of the ones here
Another possibility for smaller missions at least is to add balloons that don't land on the surface at all, so that gets rid of the last stage of the complex procedure. Although the Mars atmosphere is very thin, nevertheless balloons can float in the atmosphere if light enough and with a small payload. It is also possible to land a balloon in a planetary atmosphere as we saw with the Venera probes for Venus. This would remove a lot of the complexity of the landing sequence and a Mars balloon could last for long periods of time and explore much of the surface of Mars. It could even come down to touch the surface with a trailing cable and do surface measurements.
Another idea is to send a plane that glides to the surface and does its science in that brief window before impact, the Mars Plane idea, and anothre idea is to send lots of miniature planes that have the capability to land through a controlled stall, in the Mars atmosphere in near vertical orientation and take off again.
We could also send penetrators like Deep Space 2 along with any other mission. Indeed Curiosity uses bars of metal, the “weight bar mass”, which it releases for trimming purposes and one proposal by Gilbert Levin is to add life detection instruments on penetrators to those probes which would not add anything to the weight of the mission or even change the design as those trimming bars are released anyway and impact the surface at high speed ideal for a probe like that.
For more about this see my Soaring, Buzzing, Floating, Hopping, Crawling And Inflatable Mars Rovers - Suggestions For UAE Mars Lander
We could do all of these right now, years ago indeed, but NASA tends to be rather unadventurous, wanting to use ideas that it knows works or are pretty sure will work, It’s done many innovations such as air bags, and sky cranes but the idea of adding miniature planes and balloons, or more penetrators or hopping robots and various other ideas seems a step too far at the moment for them.
NASA talk about these ideas and has studies done, but so far they have never got beyond concept studies to an actual mission. I’m not sure why that is. But perhaps it is not surprising given the hundreds of millions of dollars price tag.
Perhaps as prices go down and other countries get involved we may get missions like this.
We could also send interplanetary cubesats. Being very light weight, then they could be added as a secondary mission. Since that is done frequently on missions closer to home, I think it is only a matter of time probably before we start to get interplanetary cubesats included as a part of a Mars mission, communicating with Earth via orbiters around Mars. But AFAIK there are no firm plans to include any of those in the near future upcoming missions by ESA / Russia, NASA or China (all of whom have plans to launch landers to Mars in 2020).
I’ve also written this up for my Science20 blog as: Why Do Spacecraft Like ESA's Schiaperelli Crash On Mars So Easily?
Summary: Legally the president makes the decision and everyone else then scurries around and follows his or her orders; in practice it's not going to be that simple in peace time especially. He or ...
(more)Summary: Legally the president makes the decision and everyone else then scurries around and follows his or her orders; in practice it's not going to be that simple in peace time especially. He or she doesn’t just have a button to press and the weapons fire; it’s a figurative expression. A president who gave that order in peacetime would surely be treated as temporarily deranged and ignored. They would need broad support, from their defense secretary especially.
However, in the event of an imminent attack on the US they decided that the president has to be able to launch a response within minutes. This is a result of the cold war and the idea of MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction). For that reason the president has been given authority to launch an attack on his or her own without consultation. That's the origin of their power to launch. But it's only meant for situations where they believe that another country has already launched nuclear weapons towards the US.
Although legally the president could invoke this ability in any situation, and just launch nuclear weapons on a whim because they are angry or having a bad day or whatever, they would surely be ignored if they tried to invoke this ability to launch within four minutes in peacetime. Legally that would be mutiny, but those who refused to obey the orders could argue that their president is deranged and unfit to serve, and at any rate in such circumstances nobody would be likely to challenge the refusal to obey his or her commands except the president him or herself. It would probably lead swiftly to impeachment.
I wrote this for my new blog "Debunking Doomsday" on Quora. I get so many pm's and comments about doomsday stories and it would overwhelm this blog to post articles debunking all the stories you get every week here. So I've started a new blog, and you can tell how many questions I get in this topic area, as nearly all the posts there so far are for questions I've been asked since yesterday. See Debunking Doomsday.
Anyway I thought this particular one was worth republishing here especially as it is very topical with the exchange between Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton on nuclear weapons in the third debate. So here it is, original is at: Debunking: a president of the US could order a nuclear attack at a moments notice on a whim
IN DETAIL
First to be scared of nuclear war certainly is a rational fear. It’s not a hoax or an absurd idea like most of the ones I debunk. I had some fear of nuclear weapons during the cold war. Including nightmares that we’d been hit by nuclear weapons. I’m sure many did back then.
Not so much now, because I don’t feel that an all out nuclear war is likely myself. We are much more connected world wide, than before, with internet, and fast communications, satellites etc, and though there are tensions between Russia and the US, also involving China, it’s nothing like what it was during the cold war, seems to me. And everyone has so much to lose in an exchange of nuclear weapons.
Anyway many people are worrying about the US president or Putin starting a nuclear war, particularly the US president as a result of the short exchange on nuclear weapons between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the third debate.
Many people in these online debates talk about a two person rule. But no, that doesn't apply to the president. I'm using as my sources here the NY Times article: Debate Over Trump’s Fitness Raises Issue of Checks on Nuclear Power. and the Politico article by Bruce Blair , a nuclear security expert: What Exactly Would It Mean to Have Trump’s Finger on the Nuclear Button
It says that a president can order a nuclear attack all by himself or herself in theory, as the two person rule only applies to missile silos and submarines. The defense secretary doesn’t have to approve it, as he or she is second in chain of command to the president who makes the order.
"The NCA consists only of thePresident and the Secretary of Defense or their duly deputized alternates orsuccessors. The chain of command runs from the President to the Secretary ofDefense and through the Joint Chiefs of Staff to the Commanders of the Unified andSpecified Commands."
World-Wide Military Command and Control System, DoD Directive S-5100.30
But in practice a president who ordered a nuclear attack in peacetime might well face some kind of a mutinous action, refusal to follow his orders, moves to be declared unfit to govern etc.
This actually happened to president Nixon, not that he ordered an attack, but that towards the end of his presidency they no longer trusted him with the nuclear button, because of drink problems etc. So, though it was not legal for them to do it and probably mutinous considered from a legal point of view, the secretary of defense James R. Schlesinger instructed the military to divert all emergency orders especially any involving nuclear weapons, to him. In the circumstances nobody was likely to challenge this.
There’s a difference here between a decision to do a first strike, and a response to an attack. After being told about an attack, the president may have only minutes to decide whether to treat it as a false alarm or to respond, and what response to take.
That’s what Hillary Clinton is talking about here in the third debate, six minutes into this extract.
It’s confusing because she pivots. She starts by talking about Trump’s idea of a unilateral nuclear attack in peacetime. But the end of her sentence when she talks about the 4 minutes and saying that former presidents say Trump is not a suitable person to respond in a situation like that she is talking about response if you hear that there has been a nuclear attack on the US. Is it a false alarm? Do you get on the phone to Putin or to China or N. Korea or whoever? Or do you just respond right away.
She is saying at that point that he is not a fit person to make such a decision.
But she isn’t saying that a president in peace time can launch a nuclear attack with only 4 minutes of warning for no reason. If a president did that I’m sure they would be treated as temporarily insane, of diminished responsibility, and ignored. Whether it is Clinton or Trump or whoever it is.
But because of the pivot it’s not so clear, she is somewhat giving the impression that Trump would be able to launch a nuclear weapon in peacetime within 4 minutes.
If challenged I’m sure she’d deny that is what she meant. It’s the sort of thing politicians often do in debate to score a point, pivoting like that.
Incidentally I think it is totally immoral to launch nuclear weapons at all and if someone has dropped a nuclear weapon on your state, heaven forbid as they say, then it does not make it acceptable to use them. Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the opposition in the UK, and long term opponent to nuclear weapons has said that if he is prime minister he will never give the order to launch nuclear weapons. Theresa May has said unequivocally that she would, if it came to it, the first prime minister to answer this question in the affirmative (previous ones have refused to answer). So we have quite a polarity in politics on this matter here in the UK.
Somewhat longer response, added several new sections, in my new blog: Debunking: a president of the US could order a nuclear attack at a moments notice on a whim by Robert Walker on Debunking Doomsday
Also made it into an article on Science20 here: Debunking: A President Of The US Could Order A Nuclear Attack At A Moments Notice On A Whim
No, it can’t, not in the near future. Halley's comet's orbital path doesn't even come close to Earth ever, or any of the other planets. It intersects the ecliptic close to Venus. The Oronids meteor...
(more)No, it can’t, not in the near future. Halley's comet's orbital path doesn't even come close to Earth ever, or any of the other planets. It intersects the ecliptic close to Venus. The Oronids meteor shower consists of debris from its tail blowing away from the sun, which have got into independent orbits around the sun, not the comet itself.
Comet orbits are constantly changing as a result of the influence of the planets. Over millions of years then it is bound to either hit one of the planets, or to be deflected away the solar system, hit the sun or the Earth. That is unless it ends up in one of the few stable positions in our solar system, for instance the Jupiter Trojans.
Right now at least, there is no chance of it hitting any planet.
It’s hard to extrapolate millions of years into the future. We can predict the gravitational influences but comets produce unpredictable jets that change their orbit. Halley’s comet is also evaporating. There’s a summary here of latest views:
“Halley’s overall lifespan is difficult to predict, and opinions do vary. In 1989, Russian astronomers Boris Chirikov and Vitaly Vecheslavovperformed an analysis of 46 apparitions of Halley’s Comet taken from historical records and computer simulations. Their study showed that the comet’s dynamics were chaotic and unpredictable over long timescales, and indicated that its lifetime could be as long as 10 million years.
“In 2002, David C. Jewitt conducted a study that indicated that Halley will likely evaporate, or split in two, within the next few tens of thousands of years. Alternately, Jewitt predicted that it could survive long enough to be ejected from the Solar System entirely within a few hundred thousand years.
“Meanwhile, observations conducted by D.W. Hughes et al. suggests that Halley’s nucleus has been reduced in mass by 80–90% over the last 2000–3000 revolutions (i.e. 150,000 – 230,000 years). By their estimations, it would not be surprising at all if the comet evaporated entirely within the next 300 revolutions or so (approx. 25,000 years).”
I think it is at least partly based on your behaviour. So if you click through or show “more” for particular kinds of posts, then it shows more of them. The problem is that sometimes you click thro...
(more)I think it is at least partly based on your behaviour. So if you click through or show “more” for particular kinds of posts, then it shows more of them. The problem is that sometimes you click through to a post out of amusement or at an idle moment - but you aren’t particularly interested and don’t want your post filled with those things.
So I suppose it is difficult for the algorithms to discriminate between things that you are genuinely interested in and things that you are just slightly interested to read but may spend the same amount of time actually reading.
I don’t know what the answer is. Maybe something like the facebook option - to click on a drop down next to the post to say “I want to see less of this kind of post in the future”? I.e. to give the user a bit of control over the process.
I find the feed changes quite rapidly, over a period of days, in response to what you click through, so if you stop clicking through to those posts and you are on quora a fair bit, you may find it clears up quite quickly.
As a recent example, if you click on lots of Trump or Clinton posts for a day or two, then it may fill your feed with the election debate type posts for a day or two after that, but soon seems to forget once you lose interest. I clicked through a few some days back and now in my timeline posts 25 27 and 29 are about either Trump or Clinton. So - it’s put those posts way down the page seems like scrolling down is like scrolling back in time (I’m still following the election news but no longer on quora so much).
While long term interests that you have followed up frequently for months or years don’t seem to get forgotten so much. I have lots of posts about Mars all the way through - a topic I answer questions about and click through on, and even though I don’t think I’ve done either in the last day or two, it hasn’t forgotten my interst in the subject.
So, the solution is to just stop clicking through those posts - and also - to stop clicking on the “more” … when you see them in your feed. Until they give us some way to do more fine grained customizing if they do. If you have done a lot of clicking through those stories for a long period of time I expect the feed will take a while to adapt to your change of behaviour.
Curiosity does have a video camera. It can take HD video at 10 frames per second.
The video is 1280 by 720 pixels at a rate of about 10 frames per seco...
(more)Curiosity does have a video camera. It can take HD video at 10 frames per second.
The video is 1280 by 720 pixels at a rate of about 10 frames per second. If set to individual frames, then they are 1200 by 1200 pixels. The CCD is 1600 by 1200 pixels. Details here: MSL Mast Camera (Mastcam) Description
An obvious thing to video is a dust devil. This is a video that is made by combining a series of images taken by Spirit, spans 9 minutes and 35 seconds on Spirit's sol 486.
And this is a video Curiosity took of Phobos crossing in front of Deimos - but at around one frame per second time lapse:
Does anyone know if it has ever used this capability? And why do they do time lapse sequences when they could do an HD video?
If the leaks are valid, then someone sent her an email about Nibiru. But it’s just a spam email of the type that says at the bottom “send this to all your friends” and someone apparently sent it to her.
From: Does Clinton believe in Nibiru? Doom planet 'proof 'in emails released by Wikileaks
“Checks by Daily Express found it is actually a generic email which Mr Salter has been sending to people, and posting online, urging others to do the same since at least 2014.
In the comments section of a story on Sott.net published in January 2014 about a rise in meteor strikes on earth, Mr Smalter posted the same text sent by email to Mr Podesta.
At the bottom he added: "Be concerned for others. Forward this to relatives, friends, media, etc."”
So, no, it doesn’t mean she believes in Nibiru. It doesn’t even mean the person who sent it to her did, people don’t necessarily believe everything they forward, it could be amusing, or fun, or silly and forwarded for that reason.
All you can conclude is that she had a Nibiru email in her inbox. Can’t even conclude that she read it as she might have just glanced at the title and ignored it.
Nibiru is just an internet myth / hoax. There is no genuine astronomy behind it. They quote lots of astronomical news stories but they misunderstand them.
The idea of a planet in a 3600 year orbit o...
(more)Nibiru is just an internet myth / hoax. There is no genuine astronomy behind it. They quote lots of astronomical news stories but they misunderstand them.
The idea of a planet in a 3600 year orbit or a 360 year orbit that crosses the paths of all the gas giants is impossible, because such an orbit would only last for a million years or so before the planet either hits one of the gas giants, probably Jupiter, or hits the Sun or is deflected from the solar system or torn into pieces by one of the gas giants, again probably Jupiter.
PLANETS BEYOND NEPTUNE
Astronomers do often hypothesize planets that orbit beyond Neptune. They call all these planets “planet X” where the X there doesn’t stand for 10, it stands for unknown, X as in unknown quantity. Pluto was called planet X before they discovered it,
So, if you see a story about “planet X” then it means they don’t know if it exists or not. It’s just a hypothesis.
The Nibiru people seem to think that all these hypothetical planets are real planets.
Then they also ignore all the parameters in the hypothesis. Scientists publish a paper saying there might be a brown dwarf that orbits 1.5 light years away from Earth. (That’s the idea of Nemesis, which is now pretty much disproved after the Wise infrared survey didn’t find it, and would have found a brown dwarf unless it was unusually cold).
The Nibiru people then skim read this paper and conclude that it proves that there is a planet called Nibiru in a 3600 year orbit that comes into the inner solar system and is already in the inner solar system and about to fly past Earth or hit it a few months into the future or a few weeks into the future.
They don’t seem to see the discrepancies between what the scientists say and what they are saying.
They behave like script writers for a movie.
If you make a movie, your ideas don’t have to make scientific sense, they just have to seem plausible enough for most of the audience to be able to suspend disbelief. Even scientists can enjoy movies like that, I like Star Trek and Doctor Who though much of what they say just makes no scientific sense at all.#
REAL LIFE IS NOT A MOVIE SCRIPT
But it doesn’t work in real life. In real life and astronomy the ideas have to make sense and the Nibiru ones don’t.
BIZARRE INCONSISTENT IDEAS
They say really bizarre things. They think that a planet in a 3600 year orbit can stay behind the sun all the way through its orbit. The sun goes through twelve constellations every year. Jupiter goes through one of the zodiacal constellations each year. A planet in a 3600 year orbit would go through them even more slowly. From that it’s easy to see that it’s impossible for a planet in a long period orbit to “hide behind the sun”. But they don’t seem to be able to understand this.
They believe, many of them, that the Earth’s poles have shifited. You just need to go out any starry night, locate the pole star, go out an hour or two later and check that it is the only star that hasn’t shifted and you debunk that idea with your own eyes. Due North still points towards the pole star. They can’t see this.
They also believe we have two suns and that this second sun appears in photographs take in a cell phone camera. It is so easy to debunk this. that just about anyone will just LOL if you say we have two suns, except the Nibiru people.
On any sunny day block out the sun with your finger. Do you see a second sun? (Don’t stare at the sun itself as your eyes can be damaged and you feel no pain as you have no pain receptors in your retina and effects can happen much later like hours later you start to lose your sight)
I find it incredible that anyone even gives this a moment of thought, whether or not we have one sun or two.
IT’S LIKE PROPOGANDA
But I’ve come to understand how it works I think. It’s like propoganda. If you watch lots of videos and read lots of stories then you come to believe it through repetition, if the videos and stories seem impressive to you. Much as people come to beleive in propoganda. Also a bit like the way advertising works.
For this to happen you have to have no understanding of physics or astronomy, but there are many people who flunked physics at school, and indeed why should everyone understand physics :). I’m not good at languages and have no idea about how baseball or american soccer works.
RESPONSIBILITY OF JOURNALISTS
So I think that youtube videos and newspaper reporters are part of what leads people to get so scared about things that if they could relate to their own common sense, they would see are nonsense.
I’ve done a couple of petitions on Change.org
Youtube: Petition to Youtube to Halt Ads on Doomsday Videos
Petition: Let's End Dramatized Reporting Of "Doomsday" Stories - The Vulnerable Get Suicidal
Do sign and share, it may help.
OBJECTS THAT CAN HIT EARTH
As for other objects that could hit Earth, well we have a survey of all the NEOs of 10 kilometers upwards and know their orbits well, and none of them can hit Earth before 2100. We could be hit by a comet but that’s now a 1 in 100 million probability, can be 99.999999% sure it won’t happen this century, and we’d be able to track it for at least a year and probably much longer on its way in if it was a large comet like that.
It is possible for a 1 kilometer object to hit Earth with only a few weeks of warning as though we know 90% of those, that leaves 10% of them still to find. We will have 99% by the late 2020s and are finding one of them every month at present.
An object that large is large enough to cause a tsunami, or to have serious effects on land, and put enough dust into the atmosphere to have some global effects. If we found such an object headed our way we’d need to evacuate the impact zone and couldn’t do much to deflect it at such late notice.
But this is very very unlikely. After all it has never happened in recorded human history and is no more likely to happen in this century than any other. Indeed is less likely because we have found 90% and they are not headed our way so the known probability of it happening is a tenth of what it was before we found those 90% of them. So we can be more confident that it won’t happen than anyone in any previous century already. By the 2020s we will be a hundred times more confident than we could be e.g. last century. Unless we find one headed our way of course, in which case it’s most likely to do several flybys first so we can deflect it, easy to do if it has a flyby of Earth.
Can’t say it is impossible but it’s very unlikely, and ordinary things like traffic accidents or health issues are far more significant. Even being killed by lightning or a tornado is more likely than being killed by an asteroid.
But we can do something about it. For half a billion dollars we can build a space telescope to do an infrared survey from inside of Earth’s orbit close to Venus to find most of the objects down to 20 meters within a decade.
Sentinel telescope developed by the B612 foundation. They have not yet managed to find enough funds to complete it although they did raise many millions of dollars. They were going to partner with NASA but they pulled out due to lack of funding. Any major technological country world-wide could fund this and hardly notice the effect on their defence budget.
It would sit inside of Earth close to Venus's orbit giving it a good field of view of NEOs close to the sun. It looks away from the sun to avoid being blinded by it - and it can then see faint NEOs that are in between the Earth and the Sun which is the hardest place to spot them from our current Earth based surveys. It would help fix that blind spot for asteroids that come from the direction of the sun. It looks in infra red because the asteroids are far more obvious in the infrared.
Eventually it would spot just about everything out there that's in the vicinity of the Earth orbit.
Idea is that it would find nearly all potential impactors down to 20 meters diameter.
If we find anything headed our way then with a decade or two of warning it would be easy to deflect.
It doesn’t make much sense to build an asteroid defense system based on expensive rockets that might not be needed for a hundred million years into the future (for the 10 km asteroids) or thousands of years inot the future for the smaller ones.
So unless we had huge amounts of funding ,the first priority is to do surveys and detect them. If we find something headed our way we can then build the defences against them, and if we do a complete survey we would expect decades of warning and can deflect them easily. So the priority right now is funding to detect them. We are doing quite well there. But for a tiny fraction, of say, the amount the UK government just voted to spend on renewing the Triden tnuclear weapons, an amount so small the defence budget of any major country would hardly notice it, we could find nearly all the asteroids down to 20 meters in diameter within a decade.
I think an ET would find it astonishing that we spend so much on defending ourselves against each other, yet none of the advanced countries in the entire world can find half a billion dollars for a space telescope to find the NEOs that threaten us from space.
For more on that, see Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
My Nibiru debunking articles are here
And you can tell from the hundreds of comments on those articles how many scared people there are, genuinely worried by Nibiru. It’s so sad, that they are so scared of such a daft idea, which I think most of them would admit is rather daft if they could just calm down enough to be able to connect to their basic common sense and good judgement. Especially young people and people who don’t have a strong background in science or astronomy.
See also my answer to Why do some people still believe in Nibiru?
There is nothing to worry about here. It's just scientists trying to explain the solar system as it is now. The major planets orbits are tilted on average by 6 degrees with respect to the sun's equ...
(more)There is nothing to worry about here. It's just scientists trying to explain the solar system as it is now. The major planets orbits are tilted on average by 6 degrees with respect to the sun's equator. It’s a long standing puzzle in astronomy, why did this happen?
See this Space.com article which goes into more detail:
"One alternative is that electrically charged particles influenced by the young sun's magnetic field could have interacted with the disk of gas and dust that gave rise to the planets in ways that tilted the solar system. Another possibility is that there might have been an imbalance in the mass of the nascent sun's core."
Did the Mysterious 'Planet Nine' Tilt the Solar System?
So it is just an extra theory to explain this. It’s got the advantage that if we find planet nine then we can do modeling and test if it did actually tilt our solar system.
But it is no problem for us. We already live in a tilted solar system. Just as we live on an Earth with a tilted axis which causes the seasons.
Also since you mention Nibiru you are probably thinking of the idea they promulgate that the Earth’s poles are shifting or have shifted. This is nonsense ,as is easy to check for yourself.
The solar system’s tilt isn’t changing noticeably. If Planet 9 has an effect it is very very slow and gradual. This is a new theory to explain existing observations, not new observations.
And Earths axis is not shifting either. Except the very slow precession which gradually changes the pole star in a 52,000 year circle around the night sky. You can go out any starry night, and if you live in the northern hemisphere, locate the pole star as with the flag of alaska:
Now go out again a few hours later the same night. You will see that all the stars have changed position except the pole star. It remains in the same position in the sky relative to you, and you can use it to find due North.
This shows that our Earth’s axis still points towards the pole star as it has for centuries.
There hasn’t been any pole shift, and the solar system is not changing its tilt either. It just is tilted and has been tilted for billions of years, and the Earth’s axis is tilted and has been for billions of years also.
There is such a thing as magnetic pole shift, the direction of magnetic north changes all the time, but this is not a danger to us - there have been magnetic reversals even since modern humans arose, and we are still here, not even any known extinctions due to magnetic reversals.
There is also such a thing as true polar wander, the Earth’s pole shifts by centimeters due to shifting of the positions of continents on the Earth’s crust and such like. This is of no concern at all and does not have any noticeable effects on positions of the sun or the stars in the sky.
I hope this helps.
This can’t happen with a 15 km asteroid as we have already found all of the NEOs of this size, and none are headed our way. That just leaves comets, tiny chance, 1 in 100 million of a comet that la...
(more)This can’t happen with a 15 km asteroid as we have already found all of the NEOs of this size, and none are headed our way. That just leaves comets, tiny chance, 1 in 100 million of a comet that large hitting us this century, and if a comet that large was headed our way, we’d have been tracking it for at least a year and probably two or more years in advance. However it could happen for a 1 kilometer asteroid still, as we have only found 90% of them so far. Should reach 99% in the 2020s. The chance of this is really tiny also, so not something to be worried about. Ordinary things like traffic accidents and health issues are far more important.
But yes, it’s a possible scenario though unlikely. If so, it’s most likely to hit the sea and a one kilometer asteroid is large enough to cause a tsunami so you might have to evacuate coastal villages, towns and cities once you work out where it is going to hit.
If it impacts on land, chances are it lands in a desert, so then, no risk of tsunami but you have to evacuate the region where it will impact. And warn people over a large area to stay away from windows which might break from the shockwave, etc.
If it is going to land on a populated area, very unlikely, then you have to evacuate that area.
A one kilometer asteroid is large enough to have some global effects. So stockpiling food might be an idea but 90 days is not enough warning time to do much of that sort.
There is no chance of deflecting it with so little warning, at present. The problem is that most rockets need a lot of time to prepare them to launch. ICBMs are able to launch at a moments notice, so it is possible to design rockets to hit asteroids with almost no warning. But that would be most likely for much smaller asteroids with so little warning. A 1 km asteroid would not be easy to deflect with so little warning.
If you have many years, especially decades of warning, then it’s easy to deflect. E.g. to deflect by the radius of the Earth, 6,371 km given two decades of warning, you need a delta v of 6,371,000/(365*24*60*60*20) meters per second or around 10 cm / sec.
If it does a flyby of Earth in between as is usually the case, then it will have a gravitational window of perhaps 200 meters diameter, so then you need a delta v of only microns per second.
So the best way to deal with asteroids is to detect them long in advance, if you have a limited budget. That’s why the main focus at present is on detecting asteroids. And if astronomers had the budget to spend half a billion dollars on this - a tiny amount compared to what countries spend on defense, then we could send a space telescope into orbit to find nearly all of even the smaller asteroids down to 20 meters in diameter in less than a decade.
So if a president really cares about the asteroid threat, she or he should support a bill to set aside half a billion dollars to launch a dedicated asteroid hunting space telescope to find them.
Sentinel telescope developed by the B612 foundation.
It would sit inside of Earth close to Venus's orbit giving it a good field of view of NEOs close to the sun. It looks away from the sun to avoid being blinded by it - and it can then see faint NEOs that are in between the Earth and the Sun which is the hardest place to spot them from our current Earth based surveys. It would help fix that blind spot for asteroids that come from the direction of the sun. It looks in infra red because the asteroids are far more obvious in the infrared.
Eventually it would spot just about everything out there that's in the vicinity of the Earth orbit. It would find nearly all potential impactors down to 20 meters diameter well within a decade
Then if we do find one that is headed our way, with say a decade or two decades of warning, it would be easy to find the extra funds needed to divert it so it doesn’t hit Earth. So detection I think is the priority. If we had billions of dollars for asteroid defense, as we have for defense against other nations on Earth, then we could do both.
See also my Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
Well there are so many assumptions in this question. I don’t think either is necessary, possible yes, but not necessary. We don’t have to have space colonies either, though for a sci. fi. geek it’s...
(more)Well there are so many assumptions in this question. I don’t think either is necessary, possible yes, but not necessary. We don’t have to have space colonies either, though for a sci. fi. geek it’s a cool idea :).
It’s understandable since we have people like Elon Musk and even Stephen Hawking saying over and over that we have to become a multiplanetary species. But - no we don’t. Even the brightest people sometimes make mistakes and it would be a sad state of affairs if we just accepted anything that someone very bright or very successful tells us without question.
So first, there’s the assumption that our civilization is expanding. If we explore space and send humans to outposts throughout the solar system, it will expand physically. But the population may not expand much over what it is now.
Our world population is still expanding, but the population of many countries has already stabilized and is declining slightly. Fertility levels worldwide are declining, and are often already below replacement. We have reached peak child in the world as a whole, so there are the same number of children this year as there were several years ago. That means our population is now growing only because we are healthier and living longer than previous generations.
Other places will level off towards the middle of this century. The main unknown is Africa - the least developed, poorer countries have the most rapid population growth and most of those are in Africa. So it depends a lot on what happens there, and how rapidly their fertility rate declines. The middle of the road projections have our population level off at 10 billion by 2100.
Space colonies would be even more affluent and high tech than any of these, so in the natural course of events, they probably wouldn’t have an expanding population either - unless there is some political drive for them to have large families, sort of the opposite of the Chinese one child families.
So, we don’t need more space to house people. Anyway we use our Earth quite ineffiiciently. If we used the same technology as is proposed for space habitats, we could feed the entire Earth from 22% of the Sahara desert, using only the air and sea water. If we used it in floating sea colonies - again not hunting the sea life, just floating farms on the surface of the sea we could feed four times the world’s population from 0.5% of the Pacific ocean.
That might be one of the main benefits from space habitats, not that we have lots of people live in space, but that we learnt to live in a more sustainable way.
Also, we don’t need to colonize space to escape natural disasters. Humans as mammals are much better adapted to survive extremes of temperature than the dinosaurs were, especially when you add in the ability to make clothes, and to make boats, travel. Also when you bear in mind that we are omnivores able to eat fruit, nuts, seeds, roots, insects, shellfish, fish, animals, birds. There is no credible natural disaster that would end up with a world with nothing in it that humans could eat. So long as something survives edible, somewhere in the world, we can travel there, cultivate it, farm it or whatever and then some humans will survive. And we can also set up seed banks, and prepare in other ways too.
So the idea of humans going extinct from natural disasters is just absurd if you think it through like that. Some think that the Earth could be destroyed by a giant asteroid - but forget about the movie asteroids hundreds of kilometers in diameter. The Earth hasn’t been hit by anything that big for over three billion years, nor has Mars, or Mercury or the Moon, or what we can see of Venus’s history. Jupiter it seems protects us, diverts the larger comets, or breaks them up or they crash into Jupiter or the Sun.
So, we are just talking about Chicxulub size asteroids, 10 km or so, maybe a bit more. No asteroid that large is on a collision course with Earth and we have mapped all the NEOs of 10 km upwards already. So that only leaves comets and those are very rare, perhaps 1 in 100 million chance of any of those this century and we’d have a year or two of warning.
But anyway, those would not make us extinct. Not humans. Dinosaurs maybe. It’s the same for gamma ray bursts and supernovae.
So that leaves the risk of making ourselves extinct through our technology and discoveries. You can certainly make up a science fiction story where a space colony “saves the day”. But equally you can make up a science fiction story where space colonies actually cause a future disaster. Not at all clear that space colonization actually makes us any safer as a civilization.
Also Earth is far far more habitable than anywhere else in the solar system, for humans. No disaster whether self caused or natural could make Earth less habitable than Mars. So Earth is where you’d want to build in that very remote possibility.
I think our priority has to be to be to protect Earth and help it recover. Space colonization or settlement might help with that, if they are in space doing things that help Earth, e.g. mining, or making solar panels, or indeed making discoveries that help Earth.
So I think it depends a lot why and how we do it.
For more on this, I go into a lot more detail, see my Wait, Let's Not Rush To Be Multiplanetary Or Interstellar - A Comment On Elon Musk's Vision
Also my book (which has that as one of its chapters): If You Love Science, Don't Rush to Land or Crash on Mars
No, it’s already flown past and missed. This is one of those examples of news sites taking up a random asteroid for no apparent reason and making a big fuss about it. This happens every few months....
(more)No, it’s already flown past and missed. This is one of those examples of news sites taking up a random asteroid for no apparent reason and making a big fuss about it. This happens every few months. 2009ES is an asteroid that missed us by 18.6 times the distance to the Moon on 5th November. It was discovered in 2009 hence the name, and was not discovered by the Chinese. Various news sites that obviously don’t check their sources posted stories about it for the rest of September, even though it had already done its flyby long before.
I think that’s because the original announcement that a Chinese telescope photographed it didn’t give a flyby date. And it was an unremarkable story anyway, because astronomers photograph NEOs every night. There was nothing at all newsworthy about a Chinese telescope photographing a NEO and I have no idea why they ran it.
Here is its JPL page, to find out about flybys, you click on “close approach data”, then you scroll down to the 2015 section of the close flybys
JPL Small-Body Database Browser
It says the minimal distance is 0.0483769470119564 au. So now go to Google and type in 0.0483769470119564 au in kilometers and you’ll see that it missed by more than 7.2 million kilometers.
But the easiest way to check something like this is to go to the Current Impact Risks page. It’s sorted with the highest risks at the top. If the first entry is white or blue, then the asteroid story is a hoax or a mistake because if true there would be at least a yellow entry there at the top of the page (that has happened occasionally).
If it is yellow then the story may be true though probably overhyped as that means that it will almost certainly be downgraded to a miss as they work it out in more detail. If it is orange or red (never happened to date) then there is a genuine risk of some sort of an asteroid hitting Earth and potentially having some effects on us - and you can be sure it will be headline news in all the astronomy news sites and indeed all mainstream news sites as well.
Another approach is just to visit a reputable astronomy website such as Earthsky.org - if we did have something with a predicted impact on Earth, it’s bound to be top news in all the astronomy sites. Even if just a small asteroid due to hit in the middle of the sea or a desert - far the most likely event as they are much more numerous than the larger ones, completely harmless, keen amateur astronomers will want to fly out there and photograph and video it.
I’ve been answering questions from many people who believe in Nibiru over the last year or so, and I think most of them believe it as a result of a kind of propoganda effect. You have to be someone...
(more)I’ve been answering questions from many people who believe in Nibiru over the last year or so, and I think most of them believe it as a result of a kind of propoganda effect. You have to be someone who flunked physics at high school for it to be possible to believe in it at all. But much of what they say also goes against basic common sense.
I think that’s especially clear when they say that we have a second sun. You don’t need to be a physics professor or a maths whiz kid to see that this is just false. You only need basic common sense. Go out, and you see that we have one sun. If you need to, hold your finger in front of it (don’t stare at it as you can damage your eyes without knowing, because you have no pain receptors in your retina). With the sun blocked, you can check easily that we have only one sun there.
Yet I get people contact me who believe the Nibiru enthusiasts when they say that we have two suns. They use similar methods to those of advertising and propoganda - stirring music, impressive videos (well, silly and embarrassing to astronomers, but impressive to their target audience) and a convincing voice over. And most of all, they use repetition. Once you start searching for Nibiru, google, youtube and facebook will optimize their search results to show you articles about Nibiru, just as they do for anything that interests you which you search for. And then every time you go on line you may see yet another Nibiru video. Over time you get the message repeated so many times, that we have two suns, in many different ways, that you start to believe it. Propoganda is very effective. You can almost come to believe that black is white with enough repetition and impressive sounds and imagery.
They are especially impressed by two things. By youtube videos and by journalist stories. Most of you probably don’t realize this, but once you start searching for them, you find new doomsday stories every one or two weeks. It can start to seem as if everyone world wide is predicting doomsday. But they are not, it’s just that amongst the thousands of articles published every day, then every one or two weeks one of them will be a doomsday story which may get taken up and repeated by a few of the more sensationalist newspapers with less careful fact checking, and every few months or so, main stream journalists get taken in as well and may run it as a story, especially in the “silly season” in the summer when they are short of material to publish. Most people will never see most of these stories and if they happen on one of the ones that get more widely propagated, will just click away and probably forget it, but if you have been primed to look for it, you see many stories of this type every year.
With the youtube videos, many, though not all, earn their creators ad revenue. So there’s an economic incentive there, to make scary doomsday videos. If you can get millions of views, it corresponds to thousands of dollars, or tens of thousands of dollars of ad revenue.
It’s a serious issue as some people actually get suicidal as a result. Many of them can’t stop worrying about it, and get sleepless nights, unable to concentrate at work, and may have to give up their jobs out of fear of this totally BS “Nibiru”. I think the youtube videos and the journalist petitions are big factors in this.
So, I’ve made a couple of petitions on Change.org to try to do something about it.
Do sign those petitions and share them. I don’t know who to send them to, if they reach impressive numbers then I can send to the journalists and to Youtube itself. Meanwhile I hope that just signing them will help draw attention to the issues. Any thoughts on this, do say!
My Nibiru debunking articles are here
And you can tell from the hundreds of comments on those articles how many scared people there are, genuinely worried by Nibiru. It’s so sad, that they are so scared of such a daft idea, which I think most of them would admit is rather daft if they could just calm down enough to be able to connect to their basic common sense and good judgement. Especially young people and people who don’t have a strong background in science or astronomy.
Well, not possible at present, we don’t have that kind of technology. The ISS needs to be replenished from Earth every few months. Russia used to charge $20 - 40 million to fly for over a week to t...
(more)Well, not possible at present, we don’t have that kind of technology. The ISS needs to be replenished from Earth every few months. Russia used to charge $20 - 40 million to fly for over a week to the ISS, but stopped doing that. Space tourism. So at present prices, assuming those prices are reasonable, two to three million dollars a day, but not in a spaceship on your own, that obviously would cost far more, and you’d need to stay close enough to Earth to be resupplied frequently.
Also Russia has increased its prices for US astronauts, although no longer receiving private bookings.
So it might be more like $10 million a day if you could somehow persuade Russia to take you to the ISS as a private citizen. (diagram from Russia is squeezing NASA for more than $3.3 billion — and there's little anyone can do about it)
It is tricky anyway because at present, there are only two ways to get into space; on the Russian Soyuz or as a Chinese Taikonaut. Neither of those are currently accepting paying customers. SpaceX say they will be able to send hundreds of people into space, but they have yet to send their first astronaut. They have had two explosions of their unmanned spacecraft - neither of which would have killed a human crew, they say. Still, it leads one to wonder if they will achieve it and do it as safely and as quickly as they suggest.
You could also start your own space program of course, if you had billions of dollars, and also had a way to get easy access to the rocket technology needed to get into space.
You also have the problem of health. Nobody knows if it is possible to stay healthy in zero g. If it is, then it seems you have to do a couple of hours of strenuous exercise every day to stay less fit than someone who spent the period in a bed in a hospital. We don’t have any experiments yet in artificial gravity through spinning, though it seems an obvious thing to try.
So, sadly, no not very practical at present. Who knows what the future will hold, though? Amongst other things, better closed system recycling would reduce the cost of living in orbit a lot, as you wouldn’t need to be resupplied from Earth so often. Then the cost for launch from Earth is likely to go down a lot. Artificial gravity in space through a spinning tether or centrifuge might mean you can stay healthy long term (probably).
We do have one, the UK Space Agency
We have had a fair bit of involvement in space activities over the years. We even launched our own satellite, using our own rocket
(more)Prospero (satellite) - the only ...
We do have one, the UK Space Agency
We have had a fair bit of involvement in space activities over the years. We even launched our own satellite, using our own rocket
Prospero (satellite) - the only satellite launched into orbit using a British rocket, in 1971, launched from Woomera in Australia.
This made the UK the sixth nation to launch a satellite using its own rockets, after Russia, the US, France, Japan and China. Timeline of first orbital launches by country
We sent a lander to Mars, as part of an ESA mission to Mars, and it is the only spacecraft so far to land on Mars not sent by the US or Russia. The ExoMars Schiaparelli lander on 19th October will be the second such lander, in an ESA / Russia collaboration.
Our Mars lander was almost successful. We now know that it landed successfully but one of its solar panels failed to unfurl.
Orbital photograph of Beagle 2 - Wikipedia on the Mars surface - shows that (probably) one of its solar panels failed to unfold, so blocking radio transmission back to Earth.
And right now Britain is actively engaged in developing the Skylon space plane.
The engine has passed its tests with flying colours, and the project is on course to lead to a plane able to fly directly to orbit some time in the 2020s with much lower cost to orbit than even reusable rockets.
We are also very involved in ESA activities, for instance British scientists were involved in instruments for the Philae lander on Rosetta.
There are plans to develop a spaceport in Scotland Spaceport Scotland | Home
Also Virgin Galactic which aims to achieve suborbital tourism is led by a British entrepreneur Richard Branson though based in California.
We could do a lot more if there was the political will. Our government recently chose to spend huge amounts on renewing the Trident nuclear missiles. It may well spend more on renewing Trident than the total cost for the ISS for the US, ESA, Russia and all the other partners combined.
We have the technology and expertise, also the ingenuity and inventiveness and a long history of explorers. It’s a matter of priorities and politics. It never seems to have been a huge priority for us but our role hasn’t been that small either.
Yes they have found indirect evidence of liquid water in certain dark streaks on some of the mountain slopes, even in equatorial regions, there’s one close to where Curiosity is driving at present....
(more)Yes they have found indirect evidence of liquid water in certain dark streaks on some of the mountain slopes, even in equatorial regions, there’s one close to where Curiosity is driving at present. This was quite a surprise, but it’s been building over some time. The whole process started with the Phoenix lander in 2008. The most recent observations are of hydrated salts. So not water directly but the only likely way they salts could get hydrated in those conditions is through flowing water in some form. Very salty water probably, just below the surface.
If this is true, then the water may also be habitable. As a result, they have to take special care not to go anywhere near it with Curiosity. It might have Mars life in it, and whatever there is there, for sure you don’t want to introduce Earth microbes to confuse the search.
The main take home message for us I think is that we shouldn’t send humans to the Mars surface at present. If Curiosity is not sufficiently sterilized to go close to them, humans certainly aren’t. Sadly we can’t be sterilized of our trillions of microbes. And the problem is that a journey to Mars would be very dangerous with a high chance of crashing. After a human occupied spacecraft crashes on Mars, there is no way we can reverse contamination of Mars with Earth microbes.
There are plenty of other challenging and exciting places to go and the Moon is the obvious first destination. We’ve only sent humans there during the early morning in the lunar day before it gets too hot. It’s enough of a challenge to spend the entire lunar day (two weeks) there, as it gets very hot at midday. Then the lunar night, vert cold and no solar power, is another major challenge. And all EVAs on the Moon are dangerous too in the vacuum conditions, and we haven’t even been back to the Moon for decades. We just go back and forth to the ISS and do occasional spacewalks outside the ISS to repair it and such like.
After that, then we could explore the Mars surface by orbit, or from its two moons. But because of the risk of introducing Earth life, to confuse the search, then I think, if you love science, and think exobiology is important, it means we should hold off from sending humans to the surface. See also my President Obama - If You Love Science, Please Don't Rush To "Leap To Mars" With Elon Musk Et Al
One of the biggest problems is heat rejection. It’s not enough to keep out the heat from outside the suit, you also have to eject any heat from within the suit, since as mammals, humans generate he...
(more)One of the biggest problems is heat rejection. It’s not enough to keep out the heat from outside the suit, you also have to eject any heat from within the suit, since as mammals, humans generate heat all the time and will heat up to dangerous levels if they can’t get rid of it (it wouldn’t be such a problem if we were reptiles). That’s not easy when the outside temperature is far higher than the inside temperature.
However there is a way to answer this question by taking it in an unexpected direction. Not in a spacesuit, not for long but in a habitat or even a domed city.
First, go to Mount Maxwell, pressure of 60 bars instead of 90 bars and temperature 320 C instead of 450 C
The 60 bars is a pressure that humans can live in breathing hydreliox, a mixture of hydrogen, helium and oxygen which helps prevent Nitrogen, Helium and Hydrogen narcosis. Divers have been able to survive at over 70 bars Technology: Dry run for deepest dive These gases conduct heat six times better than air which makes it comfortable to work at 33 C instead of 22 C.
So we now have 300ºC delta, instead of the 470ºC delta for normal surface operations with ordinary air at normal pressures.
And you can cool the inside even with much higher temperatures outside, with active cooling with a Stirling cooler Beyond Earthly Skies - Cooling a Venus Rover.
Or you can use thermo acoustic cooling which lets you cool with a much greater temperature difference than for a Stirling cooler.
The lower temperature also means you can have silocones.
Also - the larger the base, the easier it is to keep it cool, because you have a larger volume enclosed for the same exterior area. If you put your city under layers of rock, then the thermal conductivity of rock is so low that it would take a long time for external heat to diffuse into it. So combine that with thermo-acoustic cooling and you could end up with a domed city beneath the Venusian surface that can stay cool enough for humans indefinitely.
The first cooling for the city would be huge, but if you can achieve that, then from then on it will be easy to keep it cool, and also to reject the heat generated by its citizens.
This is based on comments to my article Will We Build Colonies That Float Over Venus Like Buckminster Fuller's "Cloud Nine"? mainly by Jason Mills and Priusmaniac
Yes. This used to happen in the early solar system, and the leading explanation of the formation of our Moon is that it was the result of the collision of a Mars sized planet called Theia with the ...
(more)Yes. This used to happen in the early solar system, and the leading explanation of the formation of our Moon is that it was the result of the collision of a Mars sized planet called Theia with the early Earth, similar in size to Venus back then.
It could also happen in the very distant future. There’s a possible resonance between Mercury and Jupiter. They aren’t in this resonance at present. But it could happen billions of years inot the future. If so, Mercury’s orbit would get more and more elongated until eventually it crosses the orbit of Venus. There’s about a 1 % chance of that happening. If that happens then Mercury could end up hitting the sun, or ejected from the solar system, but there’s also a very tiny chance it could hit Venus, Earth or Mars.
So we are talking here about a tiny fraction of a 1% chance of our smallest planet Mercury hitting another planet some time billions of years into the future.
This is far far into the future and the Sun by then has already heated up to the extent that Earth is uninhabitable (unless we find a way to shade it of course or move the Sun).
But this is so far into the future that we could have evolved a second time from the smallest microscopic multicellular creatures - not just once, but many times over.
Right now our solar system is stable, there are no extra planets in the inner solar system out to Neptune. There may be planets way beyond Neptune but they can’t come into the inner solar system (an orbit that crosses the paths of Neptune and Uranus, never mind Saturn and Jupiter just can’t be stable long term, so no planet can be in such an orbit - not now, billions of years after the formation of the solar system). When astronomers hypothesize planets beyond neptune they are always planets that remain in orbits way beyond Neptune for the entire orbit. In theory there could be an extra planet that comes inside of Neptunes’ orbit if it has a resonance with Neptune. Pluto does this but none of the other hypothesized Planet Xs have done this to date AFAIK.
So - though possible, it’s not something to lose sleep over. We may well see it in other star systems though.
It’s just the same as an image without space junk. If you have a 720p HD image from space, and Earth fills it vertically, each pixel is 17 kilometers across (12,742/720). You wouldn’t even see a 1....
(more)It’s just the same as an image without space junk. If you have a 720p HD image from space, and Earth fills it vertically, each pixel is 17 kilometers across (12,742/720). You wouldn’t even see a 1.8 kilometer diameter Stanford Torus at that scale - it would be about a tenth of a pixel in diameter.
NASA artwork from the 1970s for the Stanford Torus design
For more about these habitats see Asteroid Resources Could Create Space Habs For Trillions; Land Area Of A Thousand Earths
As for seeing anything in the black sky around the Earth - unless it is a superimposed image, then exposing so you can see the Earth without it being washed out means you can’t see the stars. Anyway a satellite or space debris would only look like another star unless it was a movie and you could see it moving. And when we see the ISS fly overhead as a bright star it is only a few hundred kilometers away. To be far enough away to see the Earth in more or less its entirety, you need to be a few thousand kilometers away - if it is a genuine photo. At a distance of, say, 4000 km, the ISS would be a hundredth of the brightness it is seen from the Earth’s surface, or about 5 magnitudes fainter. For a genuine photograph of the entire Earth that doesn’t focus in on a particular spot, you have to be even further away, say, geostationary orbit, and that makes it more like ten magnitudes fainter.
So even if you blocked out the Earth and Sun (easy to do in space) and looked at a dark sky, the satellites and space debris would be just about impossible to see unless you are pretty close to it. From geostationary orbit, even the ISS would be a faint star of magnitude 4 or so at its brightest (−5.9), hard to spot though visible to naked eye.
You would be able to see a Stanford Torus from geostationary orbit as a bright star, in appropriate illumination conditions, however. At about 18 times the length of the ISS, can get a very rough estimate. Of course the shape is different, surface brightness etc, this is just a very rough back of the envelope first guess, makes it about 324 times brighter. So compared to the brightness of the ISS as seen from the surface of Earth, a Stanford Torus at the same distance from you as Earth, seen from GEO might perhaps be about 3 times brighter, so about a magnitude or so brighter, it might be as bright as -7 or even brighter. Brighter than a crescent moon though nowhere near as bright as a full moon. The astronomical magnitude scale. So, even though so tiny they’d only span a tenth of a pixel, if we ever build those, they might be bright enough so we see them as extra dots in HD images of the Earth??
Yes, when signed in to a google account at least (if you belong to gmail or youtube etc you are probably signed in whenever you use youtube).
If you want to switch this off, then as of writing this, you go to https://myaccount.google.com/act... which lets you pause youtube search history (using the blue slider) and also Web and App activity to do the same for google searches.
When signed out of your google account, they personalize google search results using anonymous cookies, you can go to https://www.google.co.uk/history...
though I’m not sure if that applies to youtube searches or only google searches.
Google searches are also customized based on your country and your location within a country, even down to ip address. I don’t know any way to disable that. Youtube is also customized at least at the country level, and they give instructions for changing this here: Change language or content location settings but Youtube frequently change their interface, the arrangement of the menus etc, and I can’t seem to find where it is.
Yes it is feasible. There’s a long way from it being feasible in principle and an actual business, but plenty of possibilities to explore.
The main suggestions include volatiles from the poles - sup...
(more)Yes it is feasible. There’s a long way from it being feasible in principle and an actual business, but plenty of possibilities to explore.
The main suggestions include volatiles from the poles - supplying water and the water split into hydrogen and oxygen as fuel, to LEO - where the Moon has the advantage that export is much easier than from Earth, precious metals for export to Earth such as platinum, which may be there as a result of impacts of iron rich meteorites and giant asteroids, and many resources suggested that could be used in situ on the Moon. We could also create solar panels on the Moon. It’s useful for fabricating electronics because of the hard vacuum. There are some processes you can do on the Moon easily which would be hard to do on Earth because it is so difficult to get a sufficiently hard vacuum to do them.
There are several books by Moon enthusiasts describing this in detail, how it would work. Paul Spudis is one, with his most recent book, The Value of the Moon: How to Explore, Live, and Prosper in Space Using the Moon's Resources. Another is Dennis Wingo, CEO of Skycorp, and author of Moonrush, see his recent paper, and appearance on the Space Show. Others include Madhu Thangavelu, David Schrunk, and other authors and contributors to The Moon: Resources, Future Development and Settlement. See also David Schrunk's paper Planet Moon Philosophy , and their appearance on The Space Show.
I did a summary of some of the main resources on the Moon for my Case for Moon first. The rest of this answer consists of extracts from the section The Moon is resource rich from my kindle book.
VOLATILE RESOURCES
We have pretty good evidence now of ice at the poles, in permanently shadowed craters, thought to be relatively pure and at least a couple of meters thick according to radar data from a NASA instrument flying on India's Chandrayaan-1 lunar orbiter.
It's not a direct detection however, so there is still room for scepticism about it, as rough material would have the same radar signature as radar transparent ice. But craters that are rough when new, are rough both inside and outside the crater rim. While these signatures are found only inside the craters and not outside the rims, which they interpret as meaning that they are caused by ice. The temperatures are also right for ice.
If it is ice, it could be "fluffy ice".
"We do not know the physical characteristics of this ice—solid, dense ice, or “fairy castle”—snow-like ice would have similar radar properties. In possible support of the latter, the low radar albedo and lower than typical CPR values for nonanomalous terrain near the polar craters are 0.2–0.3, somewhat lower than normal for the nonpolar highlands terrain of the Moon and are suggesting the presence of a low density, “fluffy” surface."
(page 13 of Evidence for water ice on the moon: Results for anomalous polar)
In either case, it is not just a little ice; if this is what they detected, there's estimated to be at least 600 million metric tons of this, and possibly much more.
It also contains other volatiles. We know for sure that there is some ice on the Moon, by the LCROSS impact experiment. Relative to H
2
O at 100% they found H2S at 16.75%, NH3 at 6.03% SO2 at 3.19%, C2H4 at 3.12%, CO2 at 2.17%.
So, if the rest of the ice at the poles has a similar constitution to the impact site that's a lot of nitrogen (in the ammonia) and CO
2
on the Moon at the poles.
On the other hand, caution is needed as this is not direct detection. The LEND results (searching for hydrogen through reduced emissions of neutrons of a particular type) are particularly puzzling, as there is almost no resemblance between their map and the miniSAR map.
LEND map - in this picture blue is reduced neutron emission and shows likely locations of hydrogen. 0 degrees longitude is at the top.
They did detect hydrogen, but puzzlingly, it was not correlated with the permanently shadowed regions - there was some hydrogen in permanently shadowed regions, and some also in illuminated regions. A recent paper suggests that ice mixed in the regolith in illuminated regions may be ancient ice that survived a minor shift of the lunar axis.According to one hypothesis, this may be ancient deposits from over three billion years ago before volcanic activity, which changed the polar axis slightly by shifting material.
A new LEND mission has been proposed involving low passes over the poles at altitudes as low as a few kilometers, for higher resolution results.
The Moon may also have ice at lower latitudes too, as there are permanently shaded regions up to 58 degrees from the poles (only 32 degrees from the equator). Though these regions are too warm to have ice on the surface, there may be ice there underground. See Ice may lurk in shadows beyond Moon's poles (Nature, 2012).
At any rate, the Moon does seem to have resources of ice at the poles (though memorably, Patrick Moore in one of the last Sky at Night programs that he did said that he'd believe there is ice at the poles when someone brought him a glass of water from the Moon). More research is needed to find out how much there is and where it is.
METALS
Critics often say that the Moon is undifferentiated and doesn't have any processes to concentrate ores. Although the Moon doesn't have any liquid water so all the processes involving concentration of resources through water erosion won't work, it still has many processes that can concentrate ores. Including:
The Moon has many valuable ores for metals. For instance, the highland regions (probably the original crust of th Moon) consists mainly of Anorthite (a form of feldspar, formula CaAl2Si2O8) which is 20% Aluminium, compared with 25% Aluminium for Bauxite on Earth. So aluminium ores are abundant on the Moon, indeed orders of magnitude more abundant than they are in typical asteroids, but it does require a lot of energy to extract the aluminium from the ore. Either a nuclear power plant or large areas of solar panels. Crawford, in his "Lunar Resources: a Review", says this about aluminium on the Moon:
"Aluminium (Al) is another potentially useful metal, with a concentration in lunar highland regoliths (typically10-18 wt%) that is orders of magnitude higher than occurs in likely asteroidal sources (i.e. ~1 wt% in carbonaceous and ordinary chondtites, and <0.01 wt% in iron meteorites; . It follows that, as for Ti, the Moon may become the preferred source for Al in cis-lunar space. Extraction of Al will require breaking down anorthitic plagioclase (CaAl2Si2O8), which is ubiquitous in the lunar highlands, but this will be energy intensive (e.g. via magma electrolysis or carbothermal reduction; Alternative, possibly less energy intensive, processes include the fluoridation process proposed by Landis , acid digestion of regolith to produce pure oxides followed by reduction of Al2O3 (Duke et al.), or a variant of the molten salt electrochemical process described by Schwandt et al."
Mining this for the aluminium would create calcium as a byproduct, which is useful as a conductor in vacuum conditions, a better conductor than copper weight for weight -you need half the mass for the same amount of electricity. (Copper does better than calcium on a per volume basis because it is 5.8 times denser, it is also of course much more practical in an atmosphere because calcium reacts vigorously with air, but that's not a problem for conductors that operate in a lunar vacuum, and in space applications the reduced mass may be an advantage).
"Calcium metal is not used as a conductor on Earth simply because calcium burns spontaneously when it comes in contact with oxygen (much like the pure magnesium metal in camera flashbulbs). But in vacuum environments in space, calcium becomes attractive.
"Calcium is a better electrical conductor than both aluminum and copper. Calcium's conductivity also holds up better against heating. A couple of figures mining engineer David Kuck pulled out of the scientific literature: "At [20C, 68F], calcium will conduct 16.7% more electricity than aluminum, and at [100C, 212F] it will conduct 21.6% more electricity through one centimeter length and one gram mass of the respective metal." Compared to copper, calcium will conduct two and a half times as much electricity at 20C, 68F, and 297% as much at 100C, 212F.
"Like copper, calcium metal is easy to work with. It is easily shaped and molded, machined, extruded into wire, pressed, and hammered.
"As would be expected of a highland element, calcium is lightweight, roughly half the density of aluminum. However, calcium is not a good construction material because it is not strong. Calcium also sublimes (evaporates) slowly in vacuum, so it may be necessary to coat calcium parts to prevent the calcium from slowly coating other important surfaces like mirrors. In fact, calcium is sometimes used to deoxidize some metal surfaces. Calcium doesn't melt until 845C (1553F).
"Utilization of lunar materials will see the introduction of industrial applications of calcium metal in space."
From the section on Mining the Moon in Permanent - by Mark Evan Prado, a physicist in the Washington, D.C., region working for the Pentagon in advanced planning in the space program.
The Moon is deficient in copper, at least on the basis of what is known so far, but as well as calcium, aluminium is a good conductor.
The LCROSS experiment found silver (a superb conductor) and mercury at the impact site, but the concentration is not known, except that it is far higher than the levels in the Apollo samples, and is probably in a layer below the surface, as the signal was delayed. See LCROSS mission may have struck silver on the moon.
It has abundant iron - in addition to ores (which would need a lot of power to extract), it actually has free iron metal
It's in powder form already, and naturally alloyed with nickel and cobalt. The blebs, or "nanophase iron" are found inside impact glass particles, so would be hard to extract. The rest though is made up of tiny particles of pure iron, so the obvious thing to try to do is to separate them out using powerful magnets. They are rather small though, most are less than a micron in diameter which could be a challenge. If we can separate them out, we can get five kilograms of iron, 300 grams of nickel and about half a gram of platinum, gold etc. (platinum group metals) in every cubic meter of regolith - as pure metal what's more. (This summarizes part of section 5, Metals from Crawford)
He bases that on a paper from 1980 by Morris and particularly its conclusion, which uses a model to interpret the data. Taylor and Meeks in the section Agglutinitic Glass versus Grain Size and Maturity (page 133) in their paper suggest that perhaps most of the iron is in nanophase form, mixed up with the glass and hard to extract.
However we don't need to speculate any more as Jayashree Sridhar et al of the NASA Johnson Space Center have done the experiment using actual samples of lunar regolith. See Extraction of meteoritic metals from lunar regolith, and they succeeded! The nanophase iron was a problem but they were able to work around it by varying the experimental setup. By varying on the size of particle they ground it down to, the strength of the magnets and details of the technique they could extract over 80% of the meteoritic iron in some of the tests. They conclude:
"Experimental results indicate promise for the extraction of meteoritic metals from lunar regolith. However, more work is needed to refine the technique and understand more about the variables that affected our results."
The iron is valuable for steel, and is also a conductor, though not nearly as good as Aluminium or Calcium. It would be useful for some applications such as electric railroads on Mars, and is a conductor easy to access in the early stages.
Also nickel and iron are useful for making nickel / iron batteries. These could be useful for making batteries on the Moon with in situ resources, for instance to help last through the lunar night.
"Iron-nickel batteries are very rugged. Their lifetimes which can exceed 20 years are not affected by heat, cold or deep cycling. They are not easily damaged by rapid discharging or over-charging. On the downside, they have poor performance at low temperatures but they can be kept warm with insulation (e.g. simple regolith) and thermal wadis. Also, they only have a charge to discharge efficiency of 65% and will self discharge at the rate of 20% to 40% per month. Despite these shortcomings, they might be the Moon-made power storage systems of choice due to their simplicity and the availability of their component materials on the Moon. Moreover, these materials are among the easiest of materials to produce on the Moon."
See Electrical Energy Storage Using Only Lunar Materials.
Then, you also have titanium. This is especially interesting as it is rare in asteroids. Apollo 17 samples are 20% high purity Ilmenite, a Titanium ore which is found in the lunar mare. And better than that, the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, with its spectral mapping of the Moon, discovered deposits that are up to 10% titanium, more than ten times higher than titanium ores on Earth. (Phys.org report, NASA image). Titanium is an industrially desirable metal, stronger per unit weight than Aluminium (though it is a poor conductor).
Titanium is also widely used in medicine for hip replacements, dental implants, etc., as "one of the few metals human bone can grow around firmly", see also this new titanium / gold alloy four times tougher than titanium
Titanium is especially useful for medical applications because it
"Therefore, in the context of a future space economy, the Moon may have a significant advantage over asteroids as a source of Ti. The fact that oxygen is also produced as a result of Ti production from ilmenite could make combined Ti/O2 production one of the more economically attractive future industries on the Moon.
For more on this, see major lunar minerals. And for an in depth study, read Crawford's review.
So, yes, there are plenty of metals on the Moon, but it might take a lot of power to extract them, apart from the iron, if that can be separated out using magnets.
And that's mainly based on the Apollo results which explored a small region of the lunar surface which has been found to be in some ways unrepresentative. The Moon may have many other surprises in store. Many ores on Earth would not be detected from orbit, and it seems the Moon has a fairly complex geology as well.
As an example of one way the Moon could surprise us - Earth is often hit by iron meteorites, so the Moon should be also. The main question is, how Dennis Wingo has hypothesized in his Moonrush book, that the Moon may also have valuable platinum group metals which could be mined, the result of the impacts of these iron meteorites.
Taking this further, there's a hypothesis by Wieczorek et al that magnetic anomalies on the Moon around the south pole Aitken basin may be from the remains of the metal core of a large 110 km diameter differentiated asteroid that hit the Moon to form the basin. If so, they could be useful sources for platinum, gold, etc.
From Wieczorek et al, the North and South poles are marked N and S. Notice the magnetic anomalies clustered around part of the rim of the South Pole Aitken Basin. This is thought to be the result of an impact by a 110 km diameter asteroid. Wieczorek et al hypothesize that the magnetic anomalies trace out the remains of the metal core of this asteroid. If so these could be rich ores, including iron, nickel, also platinum and other platinum group metals (gold, rhodium etc). See page 16 of Crawford's Lunar Resources: A Review
Platinum is a particularly useful metal. It is heavy, soft, malleable as gold and silver, easy to draw into wires, very unreactive, and has a high melting point. Out of gold, silver, platinum and copper, platinum is the densest and the hardest and the least reactive (the others are somewhat better in terms of electrical and thermal conductivity, and malleability, but it's not too bad at those either). So, it's not just useful for catalytic converters, fuel cells, dental fillings and jewelry. We'd probably use it a fair bit in other ways too if it didn't cost so much.
The platinum group metals might be valuable enough to return to Earth from the Moon, just as suggested for the asteroids, especially if there is water to split and use as fuel available on the Moon or once they set up a mass driver on the Moo
Of course, you can't just take the current market value of platinum, multiply by the amount of platinum available in a large meteorite - or on the Moon if Wingo and Wieczorek et al are right - and conclude that you'd get trillions of dollars by returning all that platinum to Earth and selling it here. You need to fulfill a need or eventually nobody will buy it. If it's just to replace copper, for instance, in wires, it wouldn't be worth returning unless you could reduce the transport cost back to Earth right down. Dennis Wingo suggested in Moonrush that it could be worth exporting it to Earth for use for fuel cells, as an application that could be high value and yet need a lot of platinum.
The gold could be useful too, on the Moon at least. You don't normally think of gold as more decorative than useful but it is used a fair bit in electronics Also combined with the abundant titanium on the Moon you get Ti3Au, an alloy with 70% less wear, four times the hardness and increased biocompatibility compared with pure titanium (and twice as hard as titanium / silver and titanium copper alloys). It's also 70% less wear than titanium, lower friction and four times harder with a hardness of 800 HV in the Vickers hardness test. Density about the same as steel.
(density of titanium: 4.43 g/cc. using the atomic masses of gold and titanium, multiplying by (196.96657+3*47.867)/(4*47.867)*4.43 = 7.88 approx. By comparison, density of steel is 7.75 g / cc).
The paper focuses on its medical applications, you can alloy titanium with copper or silver, which are twice as hard as pure titanium, but this is four times as hard. It's also 70% more resistant to wear which will make it last longer and lead to less debris. And has excellent biocompatibility properties. But I wonder if it might also have lunar applications, with the hardness especially and resistance to wear.
Probably only the platinum group metals would be worth returning to Earth, since it's going to be easier to mine the Near Earth Asteroids, especially the ones that consist almost entirely of pure metal. However, whether or not they are useful for Earth, they are well worth using on the lunar surface once you have industry there.
The Moon has some advantages over Mars indeed for metals, such as the pure nanophase iron mixed in with the regolith, which can only exist in oxidized form on Mars except for rare metal meteorites. Also, it's unlikely it will be commercially worthwhile to return metals from Mars while there are definite possibilities of returning metals from the Moon. See Exporting materials from the Moon for future suggested low cost methods for export from the Moon. For discussion of whether anything physical could be worth the expense of export from Mars, see Commercial value for Mars
LUNAR GLASS
This is a beneficial side effect of all the micrometeorite impacts on the Moon (which you don't get so much on Mars with its thin atmosphere, just enough to filter out micrometeorites). The Moon's "soil" or regolith contains large quantities of glass, created during the impacts. It also has free iron, as we saw, at half of one percent of the soil, in tiny micro beads of iron (nanophase iron) which concentrate the microwave energy. Again, you don't have this on Mars.
As a result, it is really fast to melt the regolith using microwaves. It took only 30 seconds to melt small lunar sample at 250 watts (typical of a domestic microwave). You can melt the soil to glass as easily as you can boil water using the microwave in your kitchen. See lunar lawnmower. This only works with genuine lunar soil and not the simulants. We have nothing analogous to lunar soil on Earth, as Larry Taylor, principle author of this paper found: Microwave Sintering of Lunar Soil: Properties, Theory, and Practice. He says the microstructure of the genuine lunar regolith, with nanophase iron beads scattered throughout, would be almost impossible to simulate.
His idea (see Products from Microwave Processing of Lunar Soil on page 194 of the paper) is to run a "lunar lawnmower" over the soil with two rows of magnetrons (such as generate microwaves in a microwave cooker). The first row would sinter it to a depth of half a meter using microwaves. Then the second row completely melts the top 3-5 cm of the soil, which then crystallizes to glass. As it does this, it will heat up and release most of the solar wind particles notably hydrogen, helium, carbon and nitrogen. So it could also capture these assets as it goes along, including the Helium 3, if this turns out to be of economic value.
See also The Lunar Dust Problem: From Liability to Asset. This could also be useful, for instance, for a solar panel paving robot to make solar panels, and other applications.
Then, there's Behrokh Khoshnevis' idea for making a landing pad on the Moon using tiles made of lunar glass in situ. The idea is to make the surface into lots of tiles by injecting a material that can't be sintered easily using microwaves into the soil first to outline the edges of the tiles, then use microwaves to melt the soil in between.
This would make a tiled flat surface for supply vessels to land on. It would also help with the problem of lunar dust by removing dust from the landing area. You can read the details here. He used lunar regolith simulant, so presumably by Larry Taylor's results, it would work even better with genuine lunar samples.
SOLAR CELLS FROM LUNAR MATERIALS - SOLAR PANEL PAVING ROBOT
Once you have glass, it might not be such a big step to make photovoltaic cells on the Moon. And here the Moon has one big advantage, the high grade vacuum so you could use vacuum deposition to make the cells in situ. To start with you'd make the cells themselves from materials sent from Earth, later on mine them on the Moon.
This is a report from the Center for Advanced Materials at the University of Houston, suggesting the possibility of an autonomous solar powered lunar photovoltaic cell production rover
It would use silicon extracted from lunar materials to make the cells themselves. Of the various methods you could use, magma electrolysis may be best. He uses low efficiency silicon cells which are vacuum deposited on glass, something that is not easy to do on Earth but would be possible in the ultra high vacuum conditions on the Moon. Techy details of this suggestion are here.
It would require transporting a small mass to the Moon in the form of the rover which then over several years of driving could build a 1 MW facility on the Moon.s
Idea for a robot to drive over the surface of the Moon leaving solar panels in its wake wherever it goes, using only indigenous lunar materials to make the panels. The panels would be only 1% efficient, but given that there is no shortage of real estate on the Moon, that might not matter. It might be more important to make the panels in situ without any imports from Earth than to make them highly efficient
Structure of the panels
For making glass on the Moon see the section above: Lunar glass
BASALT (LIKE GLASS FIBER)
The basalt itself is a natural resource. If reasonably pure and consistent in composition, it's ideal for making basalt fibre, which is like glass wool, but much better in some ways. The regolith consists mainly of powdered basalt. So might well be ideal for making basalt fibre. See:
HELIUM 3
I should mention this, since the topic is brought up so often in discussions of lunar settlement. However I don't see this as a major plus point for the Moon at present.
The Moon is a source for helium 3, deposited in the regolith by the solar wind, and some say that helium 3 will be of value for fusion power in the future because it is not radioactive and doesn't produce radioactive waste products. If so, small amounts of helium 3 from the Moon could be worth a lot on Earth and be a useful commodity to export. Apollo 17's Harrison Schmidt is a keen advocate of helium 3 mining on at a reasonable rate at a reasonable rate the Moon.
However, we don't yet have fusion power plants at all, and one able to use helium 3 is a tougher challenge. Frank Close wrote an article in 2007 describing this idea as "moonshine" saying it wouldn't work anyway. Frank Close says that in a deuterium - helium 3 tokamak, at normal temperatures for a tokamak, the deuterium helium 3 reaction proceeds so slowly that the deuterium would instead fuse with itself producing tritium and then fuse with the tritium (the original article is here, but it's behind a paywall). For a critical discussion see also the Space Review article The helium-3 incantation
See also Mining the Moon by Mark Williams Pontin. If you can use much higher temperatures, six times the temperature at the centre of the sun by some calculations, the helium 3 will fuse at a reasonable rate, but these are temperatures way beyond what is practical in a tokamak at present. The reason such high temperatures are needed for a tokamak is because the plasma is in thermal equilibrium and has a maxwellian distribution which means that to achieve a few particles at very high temperatures you have to heat up a lot of particles to lower temperatures to fill up the maxwellian distribution so that just a few will react. This is potentially feasible for the lower temperatures of DT but not feasible for the higher temperatures of 3He 3He.
However if you use electrostatic confinement, a bit like a spherical cathode ray tube with the fusion happening at the center where the negatively charged "virtual cathode" is, then the particles are all at the same high energy and the result is much more feasible with lower power requirements. This is the approach of Gerald Kulcinsky who achieves helium 3 fusion in a reactor 10 cm in diameter. However though it does produce power, it produces only one milliwatt of power for each kW of power input so is a long way from break even at present.
Gerald Kulcinski who has developed a small demonstration electrostatic 3He 3He reactor 10 cm in diameter. It is far from break-even at present, producing 1 milliwatt of power output for each kilowatt of input. See A fascinating hour with Gerald Kulcinski
Perhaps this line of development will come to something. Perhaps one way or another we will achieve helium 3 fusion as the enthusiasts for helium 3 mining on the Moon hope. However it is early days yet, and we can't yet depend on this based on a future technology that doesn't exist yet.
However even if we do achieve helium 3 fusion, it might not be such a game changer for the lunar economy as you might think. Crawford says (page 25) that to supply all of our energy from Helium 3 would mean mining 5000 square kilometers a year on the Moon, which seems ambitious (and would mean the whole Moon would only last 200 years). So, even if we develop Helium 3 based fusion, and it turns out to be a valuable export, it's probably not going to be a major part of the energy mix.
Even more telling, he also calculates that covering a given area of the Moon with solar panels would generate as much energy in 7 years as you'd get from extracting all the Helium 3 from that region to a depth of three meters.
Also - there are many other ideas being developed for nuclear fusion, such as laser fusion, and the polywell which has the same advantage that no significant radiation is produced when it uses fusion of boron and hydrogen. I think it is far too soon to know whether or not the helium 3 on the Moon will be an asset in the future when we achieve nuclear fusion power. For a summary, see ESA: Helium-3 mining on the lunar surface.
This doesn't mean that there is no point in helium 3 mining however. As Crawford suggests (page 26), Helium 3 is useful for other things, not just for fusion power. It's used for cryogenics, neutron detection, and MRI scanners, amongst other applications, so some Helium 3 from the Moon could be a valuable export right away, even if it doesn't scale up to the huge quantities you'd need for Helium 3 based power generation on Earth. You'd get it automatically as a byproduct while extracting the more abundant volatiles from the solar wind in the regolith, so it might well be a useful side-line to help support lunar manufacturing economically as part of the mix along with everything else.
THORIUM AND KREEP (POTASSIUM, PHOSPHORUS AND RARE EARTH ELEMENTS) ,AND SOME URANIUM
The Moon has some uranium, which is a bit of a surprise for such a heavy element, but when bound with oxygen it is rather lighter and can occur in the lunar crust as on Earth. It is especially rich in Thorium, in the lunar Mare. This is useful as a fuel for nuclear fission reactors, which have to be designed to burn thorium instead of uranium to use it. It's not likely to be worth returning to Earth as thorium is abundant here. But it could be very useful in space, at some point in the future.
Nuclear power stations built on the Moon wouldn't have the same pollution hazards and hazardous waste issues as stations on the Earth. Perhaps this may be a way to power space colonies, and interplanetary ships fueled from the Moon, so avoiding the need to launch nuclear power plants from Earth to orbit.
Thorium is a tracer for KREEP - potassium, phosphorus and rare earth elements. Also associated with chlorine, fluorine, sodium, uranium, thorium, and zirconium, so KREEP ores could be sources for all those elements on the Moon.
When the Moon cooled down from the original molten state, then olivine and pyroxene crystals form first, and sink to the bottom of the magma ocean (both made of iron and/or magnesium plus silicon and oxygen). Meanwhile anorthite also forms (made of calcium, aluminum, silicon, and oxygen), which is less dense and floats to the top (forming the lunar highlands). Some of the other elements like nickel are able to squeeze into the crystal lattice and get removed at the same time. But the larger elements can't, and are left in liquid state. They are last to solidify and form the KREEP deposits. It forms in between the olivine and pyroxene deep down, and the floating anorthite on top and may have been liquid for a long time.
For some reason, not fully understood, then KREEP deposits on the surface of the Moon are concentrated on the near side of the Moon near the Imbrium basin, with a small amount also in a separate concentration on the far side. The Imbrium impactor probably excavated the KREEP deposits on the near side. But it's puzzling that the much larger Aitken basin didn't lead to large deposits on the far side. Perhaps for some reason KREEP is concentrated on the near side of the Moon. For more about this see The Moon is a KREEPy place by the planetary geologist Emily Lakdwalla which I summarized here.
The abundances of rare earth elements on the Moon are much less than rare earth ores on Earth, and despite the name, they aren't very rare here on Earth. So it's not likely that they'll be worth returning. However the most concentrated spots - the ones marked white in this figure - haven't been sampled on the surface and the spatial resolution is low, tens of kilometers. So it's possible we'll find more concentrated ores on the Moon.
It's a similar situation for uranium and thorium. The abundances on the Moon from this map are too low to count even as a low grade ore on Earth. But with such low resolution, there could be richer ore deposits when we look at it closely. (Here I'm summarizing what Crawford says about lunar KREEP ores in his survey, see section 7, Rare earth elements and following)
POSSIBILITY OF USING LUNAR SOLAR POWER FOR EARTH
This is a bit further ahead, but it is worth thinking about, whether solar power for the Moon could actually be useful for Earth also. Some scientists think it could be.
The advantage of doing this on the Moon is that you can use indigenous materials to make the solar panels. For a small amount of launch mass to the Moon you could have a rover that travels over the surface leaving solar panels in its wake. See Lunar glass and Solar cells from lunar materials - solar panel paving robot (above)
It's easy to see this working to supply power to the Moon, but some have suggested it could also be used to generate power on Earth. So, taking this even further, with a large scale operation of this type, using only 1% of the surface area of the Moon, you could supply 2 kilowatts of continuous power per person to a population of 10 billion on the Earth. See Solar Power via the Moon. More details here.
Or, further ahead, maybe this is more interesting as a talking point than a likely near future concept, the Japanese Shingzu corporation has suggested we could build solar panels in a band around the Moon - at the equator
See Shimizu dream - Lunar Solar Power Generation - Luna Ring.
Earth would get solar power only half the day, so they send the power to satellites in orbit around Earth, which then beam it down to the other side of Earth. Of course they need large receivers to collect the power from the Moon, but only 1% of what they'd need to collect it directly from the sun - that could be worth doing if it is significantly easier to make solar panels on the Moon.
On the other hand there are ideas to use large thin film solar panels in space or large thin film mirrors to concentrate the light onto solar panels or furnaces, launched from Earth to LEO. So would the lunar solar plants be a major saving compared to those?
Another way that the Moon could help the Earth though, with solar power, is to make the solar cells from lunar materials, and then ship them to GEO or lower orbit. The idea of using lunar materials to make solar power satellites goes back at least to the 1970s, see Construction of Satellite Solar Power Stations from Nonterrestrial Materials
For more on this see the The Moon is resource rich section of my Case for Moon First
Whether it is useful off planet depends a lot on how easy it is to export the materials from the Moon, and one of the most promising ways to do that is Hoyt’s cislunar tether system which exploits the Moon’s position as higher in the gravitational well than Earth to basically “roll the goods down hill” from the Moon to Earth through a system of rotating tethers.
See
in my Case For Moon First
I think we should send humans to the Moon. Indeed almost everyone outside of the US thinks that. Even many astronauts and including Buzz Aldrin who, though he is a strong supporter of humans to Mar...
(more)I think we should send humans to the Moon. Indeed almost everyone outside of the US thinks that. Even many astronauts and including Buzz Aldrin who, though he is a strong supporter of humans to Mars does not say we have to skip the Moon. His “Been there done that” comment was meant facetiously, i.e. as a joke.
The Moon is barely explored. To stop at this point is like the first Antarctic explorers just landing on the continent and then walking away saying “been there, done that, where next?”
It’s also the safest place to explore. We can have lifeboats there, fueled and with provisions for the crew for two days, ready to take everyone back to Earth in an emergency. While to send humans to Mars is like setting off on a two year journey in a boat through stormy seas, never navigated by humans before, without lifeboats.
Coast Guard 47 foot Motor Lifeboat practicing in the big surf just outside and south of the Morro Bay harbor mouth, 14 April 2012, Morro Bay, CA. Photo © 2012 “Mike” Michael L. Baird
We can equip a habitat on the Moon with lifeboats with two days of provisions sufficient to get the entire crew back to Earth in an emergency.
Spacecraft sent to Mars can't be equipped with lifeboats. If anything goes wrong, the only way back is via Mars. That's true even if there is an emergency just one hour after the spacecraft leaves Earth orbit for Mars. On a type I or type II Hohmann transfer orbit it simply won't have enough delta v to reverse course and return to Earth at that point.
This makes the Moon far far safer to explore than Mars for human crew
And actually the Moon is very resource rich. What’s more, it’s the one place in the inner solar system where we might actually have commercial reasons for going there in the near future.
Moon advocates don't hit the news as much as the Mars advocates but there are many of them, and they are just as enthusiastic about their vision as the Mars advocates. Paul Spudis is one, with his most recent book, The Value of the Moon: How to Explore, Live, and Prosper in Space Using the Moon's Resources. Another is Dennis Wingo, CEO of Skycorp, and author of Moonrush, see his recent paper, and appearance on the Space Show. Others include Madhu Thangavelu, David Schrunk, and other authors and contributors to The Moon: Resources, Future Development and Settlement. See also David Schrunk's paper Planet Moon Philosophy , and their appearance on The Space Show.
It was also the policy of the US too during the Bush administration, with his Vision for Space Exploration program. And the ESA and Russia are strongly behind the idea of sending humans to the Moon first.
These people all argue for commercial reasons to go to the Moon, while the main Mars advocates just say we must go multiplanetary over and over and can’t come up with any convincing commercial case for going there. The only one they usually give is that they think in such harsh conditions with a shortage of labour that the colonists will be so innovative that they will be able to license inventions to Earth and get huge royalty incomes as a result to pay for everything they need to do. I find that just unconvincing. If it was true, the same would apply to the Moon which also has the advantages of commercial value, and tourism.
See The Moon is resource rich.
And the Moon is actually in many ways a better place than Mars for growing crops too, see An Astronaut Gardener On The Moon - Summits Of Sunlight And Vast Lunar Caves In Low Gravity
I don’t think we will colonize anywhere outside Earth for its own sake any time soon, only if we have some other reason to be there. Because it is just so much easier to build a habitat on Earth and to survive here in a desert, or even floating in the sea, than anywhere in space. We could house and feed the whole world many times over using much simpler technology, lower cost, and easier to maintain, if we had access to the technology enthusiasts think will make it possible to colonize Mars.
But I do think that there are many reasons to send humans to the Moon as the obvious first place to go. For more see my online articles:
Also my books - available to read online for free, or to get on kindle:
Scientists try to answer this by relying on science. But the scientific method works entirely by using an empirical approach, experiments with physical things. So how can science give us an answer ...
(more)Scientists try to answer this by relying on science. But the scientific method works entirely by using an empirical approach, experiments with physical things. So how can science give us an answer about what happens when you die? It depends on how you think about life and death. If you use the analogy of a dream, then this way of reasoning can be quite compelling.
ANALOGY OF A DREAM
So, there is the idea, that it is just a dream and you might wake up at any time. This is a philosophical view that is impossible to disprove really. It's more compelling if you are someone who has vivid and lucid dreams. A lucid dream is one where you know that you are dreaming and so can look at the dream carefully, knowing that it is a dream.
Richard Feynman, famous Nobel laureate physicist, was able to do this when young - later he decided to stop lucid dreaming. But while he could do it, he investigated his dreams like a scientist.
"...The next time I had a dream, there was a girl lying in tall grass, and she had red hair. I tried to see if I could see each hair. You know how there's a little area of color just where the sun is reflecting--the diffraction effect, I could see that! I could see each hair as sharp as you want: perfect vision!
"Another time I had a dream in which a thumbtack was stuck in a doorframe. I see the tack, run my fingers down the doorframe, and I feel the tack. So the "seeing department" and the "feeling department" of the brain seem to be connected. Then I say to myself, Could it be that they don't have to be connected? I look at the doorframe again, and there's no thumbtack. I run my finger down the doorframe, and I feel the tack!"
(long quote from Feynman on Reddit.com)
And you can experience pain during dreams also. Including pains that you don't have while awake. It's a rare experience, but does happen. Some dreamers can wake from a dream with high levels of pain, and the pain vanishes because it was just a dream pain.
And many people have the experiencing of waking from a dream, only to find that they are still dreaming. Sometimes the experience is so vivid that even when they finally wake properly, after several false awakenings, they may be unsure whether they have woken up properly yet, or are still in a dream. See this web survey of false awakening.
With that background, what if this is a dream? There isn't really too much more to say here, philosophers have argued it for centuries, and nobody has a knock down way to prove that you are not dreaming. You could dream all the science and experiments. They seem coherent - but are they? All you really have is the present moment in a dream - and the rest is your memories which are dream memories if it really is a dream. I don't think there is any way to prove that it isn't. You can do experiments in the realm of mind, where you direct your mind in particular ways and see what happens, as Richard Feynman did. But these are not recognized by science at present. Except in research on dreams, and those only in a limited way.
Scientists often assume that the only way to understand the mind properly is to look at the brain. So, there's a kind of underlying assumption that everything we think and feel can be explained in terms of brain processes. It's important I think to realize, that is just a hypothesis. It is not proven.
ANALOGY OF A COMPUTER
They also often go further and say that the brain is just a computer running a computer program. That again is just a hypothesis. I go into this a fair bit in some of my articles on artificial intelligence: Why Strong Artificial Intelligences Need Protection From Us - Not Us From Them
I don’t think there is any evidence at all yet, that the mind is a computer program, for the reason given there. Some things are analogous, for sure, the computer is a good metaphor for some aspects of how our minds work and computers can do things that we thought of as only the province of humans in the past. E.g. playing chess or go - but they don’t do it in the way humans do. We have a natural tendency to anthropomorphise anything that resembles us, even dolls and action figures. Back in the sixteenth century people were very impressed by clockwork automata, such as Jacques de Vaucanson's seventeenth century flute player. Or this lady playing an organ by Jaquet-Droz from the eighteenth century - the organ isn’t powered like a music box, she actually plays it with her fingers.
Or automata that could imitate human handwriting with a real quill pen:
You could actually program it, in the sense that you gave it a list of letters to write so could change what it wrote to anything you like.
CIMA mg 8332 Automaton in the Swiss Museum CIMA.
Philosophers from that time period used clockwork as analogies for the whole universe, and for actions of humans also. In the Mechanical philosophy of Descartes etc. Descartes wrote, about our perception of light, sounds etc, their imprints on the imagination, their retention in memory, our appetites and passions, and the external movements of our body as a result:
“I wish you to consider all of these as following altogether naturally in this Machine from the disposition of its organs alone, neither more nor less than do the movements of a clock or othe rautomaton from that of its counterweight and wheels…”
This analogy is still in our thinking to some extent, in metaphors such as “you are wound up” using the metaphor of a wound up spring in a clockwork machine. Or “I can see the cogs turning” as a metaphor for slow thought processes. Nowadays we know that the brain doesn’t run like clockwork but there are some close analogies. We also no longer think of it as like a hydraulic machine, another early metaphor. And to some extent yes it is mechanical, many parts of our body, e.g. our skeleton, and our heart pumping the blood, function in mechanical ways. The hydraulic metaphor is valid also, much of the way our body works is hydraulic. Now we have this computer metaphor. But I think so far it is no more than a metaphor and partial explanation still. Indeed - anything a computer can do can be done with clockwork, only more slowly and requiring a much larger machine. So in a way this computer metaphor we use today is just the old clockwork metaphor updated. There is nothing essentially “electronic” about a computer. And of course there is nothing resembling a transistor in the brain - so our brains certainly don’t work like a computer in detail.
Anyway even if there was a way to prove that the mind works like a computer, it still wouldn’t prove that when you die that’s it. If you use the analogy of a dream, that’s like a dream in which you prove to yourself conclusively that you are a program running on a dream computer - and then you wake up. It still won’t get you outside those limitations of science.
ASSUMING THE CONCLUSION
Obviously, if you start with the premiss that everything can be understood only through physical experiments - then the scientific approach can never prove existence of life after death. It is pre-biased to come up with the answer "No". They can only define life and awareness in terms that tie it down intimately to the body, because they don't recognize any other way of investigating this as valid.
About the only place in science where you have any acknowledgement that mind may have a role to play at all is in Quantum Mechanics, where they talk about observers, and the way observation influences what you can see in surprising ways. Observation is so intimately tied up with what you observe, that you can't actually say that an electron, say, has a particular location or velocity unless you observe it first.
What is observation there except activity of the mind? That might suggest perhaps that you can't completely eliminate the mind when you try to understand how the world works.
Still, even knowing that, if you are deeply ingrained in scientific thinking, you may think that there is no other way to think about awareness and consciousness. The whole thing may seem obvious to you, that when your brain dies, then that has to be the end of awareness and life and consciousness.
SCIENCE CAN’T PROVE THE VALIDITY OF THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD
But - science is itself not able to prove that science works. You can't prove scientifically that if you let go of a ball, it will fall to the ground. In a dream, you may be able to fly just by willing to fly. You may be able to throw a ball into the air and hit the Moon with it. Why can't we do things like that in real life? Science can't answer questions like that. Only philosophy can address that, or religion, or - has to be something outside of science itself, to try to understand why science works.
Some scientists are so out of touch with philosophy, that they can't understand how there can be any such subject, except as a science of how the mind works and the thoughts that people have. But their very science itself depends on a number of deeply held assumptions. To examine those, and understand why they work, and how they work,requires philosophy.
LIMITATIONS OF SCIENCE
Similarly science can't explain why there is anything at all. Even those who try to explain our universe using the idea that somehow it appeared as a quantum fluctuation out of nothing (Stephen Hawking’s idea) - that's just one theory, not proved, and many dispute it, with many other theories. But in any case, it just pushes the problem back. It doesn't explain why there is such a possibility as a quantum fluctuation, or what kind of a nothing could have a universe suddenly appear out of it. Fundamentally, it still can't explain why there is anything here right now.
Nor does science have any answers to why we suffer. It can help greatly with sickness, suffering, ill health, good food etc. Education. But in many cases you may be in pain and science can't do anything to help. Even when you enjoy life to the full, you know that there is no way that scientific research will let you continue like that for ever.
So, science has limitations. Some people think that there are simply no answers to any of those things. Some think there are answers of one kind or another. But there isn't any scientific experiment you can do, at present anyway, to decide if they have answers or not.
CONTINUATION AFTER YOU DIE
So back to the idea of an afterlife. I'm taking that in the very general sense - the idea that there is some continuation after you die. For me, I think that this continuation may be in the form of future lives as a human, animal, insect, or types of beings that we don't know exist yet. I believe, for various reasons, that I've had many previous lives and forgotten them all. I don't claim to have any proof of this at all; it just the idea that makes most sense to me :).
Others have other ideas. Ancestor worship, Hindu ideas of a soul, again with many rebirths, Theosophical ideas, Christian ideas of a heaven and hell, Ideas of pure lands etc. I don't think there is any way to decide between those possibilities, and many others. But I think that the belief that when this life ends "that's it" is as much of a faith or belief as any of those and as little supported as them.
If you are already convinced that we can't learn anything except through experiment, then this argument won't persuade you. You have closed your mind to any other possibility. But if you think there is a possibility of things you might be able to understand directly through the mind - that opens the possibility that all of this, this world, my body, external world, this computer I'm using etc etc - is in some ways a construct of mind.
It’s like a dream. With other beings in the dream also. Experiments do work, it seems. So there must be a lot of coherence to it, and maybe in some sense there is a reality to it. Far more coherent than any dream. But still - there is no way you can actually prove conclusively that you are not dreaming right now. So on that basis, all this experimental data about brains and so on - that's like dream experiments. In a dream you might prove many things, but when you wake up - all of that complicated dream is gone and you are on to your real life or your next dream.
IF AWARENESS ENDS AT DEATH, HOW CAN THIS BE HAPPENING NOW?
Then another thing that might shake your confidence that when we die, that's it - what happens after you die? That's the end of your awareness. So - at that point, there is no you left to have lived previously. So how can your life have actually happened at all? How can now be happening, if in the future, there will be nobody left to have had this experience?
This argument simply won't work at all if you are deeply ingrained with scientific ways of thinking. But for others, it might give pause for thought. I know some of you will read this and just say "nonsense, this chap is daft and he may be a nice enough chap in other ways but he has gone off his rocker here, he is not capable of critical thought".
But others, maybe you will find a few ideas here to get you thinking about it? There are many scientists who are Christian, Muslim, Jews, Buddhist, Hindu, Shinto, Taoist, etc. They don't find it at all incompatible with their beliefs, to be scientists. They know that they haven't empirically proved their beliefs scientifically. But they also consider science to be limited in the domain of what it can and can't prove. And give themselves permission to go beyond the realm of science, and to consider philosophy, and religious ideas.
So, I’m saying, you don’t have to believe in miracles to be a scientist like that. Just to recognize limitations of the scientific method. Just to be open to that possibility, that there might be something else after you die - I think that is by far the most scientific approach also. Because it's unscientific to assume anything without proof. To say that “when you die, that's it”, is as strong a statement as to say that when you die you will definitely take rebirth or end up in some particular afterlife or whatever ones belief may be.
There are a few scientists who are out certain that when you die that's it, like Richard Dworkin. Many more are just not sure what happens and open to various possibilities.
For religious people, I think it helps to acknowledge that you can't prove anything in this topic area. That can actually help your faith be stronger - because by looking carefully at this, acknowledging that you don't know, then you can see more clearly what it is you do believe, and why you do. But at the same time recognizing that others of other faiths believe other things about what happens when you die. And that there is no way to decide between any of those on scientific grounds.
In this way I think we can have greater tolerance of different religions for each other and for those who think that this life is all that there is. The idea that this life is all there is, amongst some scientists, has become as strong and irrational a faith as a religion. They simply can't see any possibility that there might be other ways of looking at things. Basically these scientists have a belief system in which the scientific method can settle all questions. That is as much a matter of faith as any religion that has been preached by some great teacher in the past.
It can't be proved, and the arguments they produce in support of it are no more valid than the many proofs of existence of God, or the arguments about numbers of angels dancing on a pin. They seem valid only because you have subscribed to this view that science will explain everything, so deeply, you can't even see that you have subscribed to it. That's as dogmatic a point of view as the most extreme kind of religious fanaticism, seems to me, as someone who has a strong background in science, maths and philosophy.
IS THERE SUCH A SUBJECT AS PHILOSOPHY?
Some scientists think there is simply no way to investigate things except by the scientific method. That rules out the entire realm of philosophy. There is no way to study philosophy using the methods of science. You can't do experiments to decide questions in philosophy, by the very nature of the subject.
If you think you can settle questions in philosophy with scientific experiments, that suggests you have never had any philosophical questions or thoughts - quite rare but true of some scientists indeed. Or maybe you used to think about philosophy as a child - I mean the ordinary natural philosophy everyone does or most people do rather than the academic subject - and have since forgotten that you did it.
So with this background, how could science ever say anything definitive about what happens when you die? Maybe it can but if so I think in some future where science is extended to include some aspect of understanding mind, sort of meld of science, philosophy and maybe some kind of mind experiments? At any rate we don't have that yet. As a scientist, therefore, I think there is no need at all to ascribe to miracles to have a wide variety of views about what happens when you die. And the view that "When you die that's it" is as much a belief system as any religion, I think.
See also my youtube video:
This is my answer to Is there life after death? - I’m not sure if the two questions should be merged.
I thought you said 10 kilometers across. There are large asteroids and comets hundreds of kilometers across but they don’t hit Earth, haven’t done so for over three billion years. Nor do they hit M...
(more)I thought you said 10 kilometers across. There are large asteroids and comets hundreds of kilometers across but they don’t hit Earth, haven’t done so for over three billion years. Nor do they hit Mars or Mercury or Venus. Jupiter protects us from ones beyond Jupiter by diverting them or breaking them up and the asteroid belt is reasonably stable over the millions of years timescale, for the big asteroids.
Journalists often post artist’s impressions of huge moon sized objects hitting Earth. Those are not realistic in the modern day.
Instead think something the size of New York. You wouldn’t see it on an HD photograph of the world. Too small. Also, large asteroids even 10 kilometer in diameter, are rare. Only a 1 in 100 million chance of a 10 km asteroid hitting Earth this century and we’d expect at least a year or two of warming because they have already mapped all the ones in short period orbits, only leaving the comets. We could still be hit by a 1 kilometer asteroid, with not much warning, maybe a week or two but those are nearly all mapped out also, they find about one of those a month and should reach 99% complete some time in the 2020s of the ones in short period orbits, which is to say most of them.
However, to answer your question as stated, an object that big going close to Earth would tear it into rubble through tidal effects. It’s the same mechanism that raises tides in the sea. The tides are very dependent on distance, get less according to the sixth power of the distance,. Double the distance, and you have 1/64 of the tidal effect. So given that the Moon still causes quite large tides today, think how large they were when it was closer to Earth?
If you had a big planet that close to Earth it would just wobble itself to pieces like a jelly.
What matters here is the “Roche limit”, if the Earth is within 2.44 radii of the big planet then it will inevitably get torn apart if it stays within. Earth is o large that it’s effectively a fluid, no rock or metal is strong enough to resist the effects of gravity.
If it was just a flyby - really better described as Earth doing a flyby of the other planet and Earth passed just within the Roche limit then it might just wobble a bit and survive. The speed would matter also.
This animation gives an idea of what happens when a planet or moon gets within the Roch limit of another planet or moon.
This assumes that both planets have the same density. If the large planet has much less density than Earth, then its Roche limit for Earth might even be within the planet and then you are okay.
Calculation indented:
The approximate formula for the Roche limit is 2.44 R * (ρE/ρP)^(1/3) where ρEis the density of Earth and ρP of the planet. So if you had (ρE/ρP)^(1/3) = 2.44, i.e. ρE/ρP = 2.44^3 = 14.53 , i.e. that Earth is about 15 times more dense than the planet.
So if the planet was only a fifteenth of the density of Earth, than the planet,Earth could do a safe flyby without being torn apart, though it would of course get very elliptical in shape during the flyby.
Earth’s average density is 5.51 g/cm³ and Saturn’s is 0.687 g/cm³. So for Earth to survive the encounter comforgably it would need to be less dense than Saturn, it’s density needs to be (5.51 /15) = 0.367 g/cm³, nearly half the density of Saturn.
I wonder though, if a single flyby of Saturn just above the cloud decks is something Earth could survive? Saturn weighs about 95 times the mass of Earth, so a bit larger than you have in mind in the question.
One theory for Saturn’s rings is that it might have been caused by a large moon that got so close to Saturn that it tore itself apart through tidal effects (though there are other possibilities)
Rings of Saturn - one theory is that they are the remains of a large moon that came too close to Saturn and got torn apart. Alternatively they might have just never formed into a moon in the first place, and there are other ideas as well..
That is, unless they are tidally locked. If Earth was tidally locked to this larger planet, as the Jovian moons are locked to Jupiter, one face always facing it, then it would not tear us apart because there would be no tides. It would just pull Earth out into an ellipsoid shape.
But it is all theoretical, it ain’t going to happen. Not in our solar system. Though - amongst the 100 billion stars in the galaxy, who knows, maybe this is happening to a planet orbiting one of them right now.
The Mars “atmosphere” is so thin that the moisture lining your lungs would boil. It is thin enough so that it would count as a laboratory vacuum. So, no, there is no way that you could survive on M...
(more)The Mars “atmosphere” is so thin that the moisture lining your lungs would boil. It is thin enough so that it would count as a laboratory vacuum. So, no, there is no way that you could survive on Mars without a spacesuit similar to the ones the Apollo astronauts used on the Moon.
Science fiction writers write about turning Mars into a habitable planet like Earth in a few centuries. On the Mars Society website you will read that we could turn it into a planet with an Earth pressure CO2 atmosphere and grow trees there in a thousand years.
A CO2 atmosphere would be poisonous to humans even with an oxygen mask, requiring full cycle scuba gear (CO2 is harmful to us above 1% so you’d need to be careful not to let it leak in). You would also need to use artificial greenhouse gases or large mirrors in space to keep the planet warm, because it gets half the sunlight of Earth.
However, that depends on assuming that there is enough CO2 locked up in the Martian regolith to create an Earth pressure atmosphere. Nobody knows how much is there, but the upper limit of modern estimates is about 10% of Earth’s atmosphere with others saying it is more like just a few percent. This, if it exists, is dry ice that’s well below the surface and would take a long time to warm up. The dry ice on the surface amounts to around 1% of Earth’s atmosphere and the current Mars atmosphere is around 1%. So there’s lots of room for skepticism about whether there is enough CO2 there.
Some have suggested that after warming up Mars we could use special microbes to digest carbonates to convert it into CO2, but that’s highly speculative. It would then be 100,000 years to sequester the carbon out of the atmosphere to make it oxygen rich, and then you need nitrogen as a buffer gas as oxygen is so flammable, and where do we get that? And how do you keep your atmosphere stable once you get that far?
And do we know what our descendants a thousand years from now will want on Mars? And when has any administration carried out a large scale expensive project that takes a thousand years to completion? Some medieval cathedrals took over a century, e.g. one of the ones we have good records for, Santiago cathedral used a workforce of 50 skilled labourers from 1075 to 1211. A decade or two is a challenge sometimes in modern times!
What we can do over shorter timescales is to make city domes, lava tube cave colonies on the Moon, Stanford Torus type habitats in free space etc. But we don’t need a planet to do that - we can start with the Moon, much more convenient, close at hand, safer too. If that’s promising we can move on to the asteroids, Venus clouds, Mercury, Callisto, many other places.
The big issue with Mars is that the thing that makes Mars more interesting than the Moon is that it might have had life there in the past and even more exciting, it may have life there right now. Recent discoveries of possible present day seeps of briny water and other potential habitats for life on Mars even on or near the surface have got some scientists excited about the possibility of present day life on Mars.
If you send humans to Mars there is a good chance their spaceship will crash and once you have bodies in tiny fragments and food, air, water etc scattered over the surface and dust blown in the dust storms, then from then on, any readings of life signs - dead or alive - over the whole of Mars would be suspect, as probably coming from that crash. That would make it very hard indeed to investigate Mars for signs of present day life especially. Earth life could also make Mars life extinct, especially if the Mars life is some early less developed form of life as is quite possible.
Meanwhile the Moon is a very interesting place and I’m sure many people would jump at the chance to set up home on the Moon too, if it was offered to them.
But I think it is rather early days to think of colonizing these places unless there is a very strong economic reason. That’s like Shackleton saying “Oh, we managed to survive a winter here, huddled under a boat and hunting seals, amazing, let’s colonize Antarctica”.
Those remaining on Elephant Island in Antarctica waving farewell to Shackleton and his five crew as he set off in the James Caird boat to find rescue in South Gorgia. They managed to survive a winter in Antarctica, but they didn’t say “Oh great, let’s colonize Antarctica :) “ Ernest Shackleton and the Endurance expedition, The voyage of the James Caird, Elephant Island
(they weren’t first to overwinter, that honour goes to the Southern Cross Expedition)
Norway's most significant historic site in Antarctica Southern Cross expedition - first to over winter in Antarctica Southern Cross Expedition
Mars may look more habitable than Antarctica but that’s mainly because it is so dry. If it did have enough water, the whole planet would be covered in a thick sheet of ice. It is very very cold there, especially at night when the air gets so cold that some of it starts to freeze out as dry ice, even in equatorial regions, for many nights of the year forming the ice / CO2 frosts photographed by Viking.
Actually Antarctica is far the more habitable of the two, it has a breathable atmosphere, hard to beat that, no radiation problems, and you don’t have to hold in the air with an outwards pressure of several tons per square meter which is why all space habitats like the ISS have to be rather massive feats of engineering, and usually with few and tiny windows, because it is a big challenge to make a transparent pane that can withstand several tons per square meter of outwards pressure .
(It’s ten tons per square meter outwards pressure if you use Earth sea level pressure as for the ISS, which makes it nearly a ton pressing outwards on a tiny window 30 cms by 30 cms).
Even the summit of Mount Everest is far far more habitable than Mars.
Compared to the surface of Mars, the summit of Mt.Everest is a paradise and would be a wonderful place to grow your tomatoes compared to Mars. You can almost breathe the air, with only supplemental oxygen, you don’t have to wear a spacesuit, your lungs won’t be damaged irreversibly with the water lining them boiling, you just need to warm it up and supply a bit of extra oxygen, easy peasy :). Well not really but compared to Mars it is.
See also my Case For Moon First
and my answer to: How can Mars be "warmed up" as Elon Musk implied during his September 2016 presentation?
Not in the near future. Elon Musk talks about making a profit by selling intellectual property from Mars, things like inventions by the colonists, but there is a big gap between inventing something...
(more)Not in the near future. Elon Musk talks about making a profit by selling intellectual property from Mars, things like inventions by the colonists, but there is a big gap between inventing something and making it profitable and they would rely a lot on inventions from Earth so why should the flow of ideas and profit be one way, ideas from Mars to Earth, royalties and payments from Earth to Mars? Surely it would be two way and with most in the direction of Mars relying on intellectual property from Earth?
I don’t get it.
For anything else the huge cost of export from the Mars surface to orbit would seem to mean it couldn’t be competitive with e.g. the asteroids and the Moon. There are a few exceptions that enthusiasts have suggested, but none actually proven as yet. See in more detail: my answer to Could colonizing Mars be a lucrative or potentially profitable venture?
If you want to become rich from space colonization - the Moon is your best bet, or perhaps space based solar power above Earth beaming back to the surface. Both have people saying it could be worth trillions of dollars in the future. Also space mining of platinum from the asteroid belt. But whether it will work out commercially I’ve no idea.
A more sure bet would be to invest in tourism, and the Moon is the obvious location there, if you can find a way to reduce costs to get there, then you may well get many takers who would pay a fair bit for a one week trip to the Moon, say.
The main ethical implications are for planetary protection, and also safety of the crew.
PLANETARY PROTECTION
If we accidentally or deliberately introduce Earth microbes to Mars before we know what t...
(more)The main ethical implications are for planetary protection, and also safety of the crew.
PLANETARY PROTECTION
If we accidentally or deliberately introduce Earth microbes to Mars before we know what the effect will be, we could be robbing ourselves and our descendants of discoveries in biology as significant as the discovery of the double helix structure of DNA, or the discovery of evolution itself. It could be that significant, what we might find if we find either some early form of life on Mars, e.g. RNA world life with no DNA or proteins, or some other form of life made extinct by DNA life on Earth - or some exobiology based on a totally different biochemistry. Also, some of the things we could find there might be very vulnerable to introduced Earth microbes.
Humans aren’t the problem but the microbes that accompany us are. It’s especially easy to see this I think for Mars because the whole planet is interconnected through global dust storms which can shield microbial spores from UV light and it has potential surface habitats such as the RSLs that Earth life may be able to colonize, with many microbes and even lichens shown able to survive Mars conditions in Mars simulation experiments.
Robert Zubrin and a few astrobiologists also have put forward a bold hypothesis that what we will find on Mars is identical to Earth life in all respects, or sufficiently identical that there is no need for planetary protection of Mars. However, this is not at all proven and indeed very much a minority view.
It is indeed possible that some life has got to Mars from Earth. Microbes hardy enough to withstand the shock of ejection from Earth after a giant impact (such as the one 66 million years ago), re-entry and impact on Mars, a century of extreme cold, vacuum and cosmic radiation - and to survive the percholorates, and to find some habitat they can survive in when they get to Mars. There are some lifeforms that can do all that but we don’t know if they have made it ot Mars. Most Earth life certainly hasn’t and wouldn’t last even a fraction of the time needed for that journey. The easiest time for this to happen is in the very early solar system over three billion years ago.
As an example of what we might find on Mars and might be vulnerable to Earth life - the shadow biosphere hypothesis suggests that there may be RNA based life on Earth that uses RNA without DNA or proteins. We haven’t found it, but something simpler must have preceded DNA based life. The reason we can’t find it on Earth is probably because DNA based life made it extinct. So what if it still exists on Mars? Even if a few microbes from Earth got to Mars they might not have been enough to make all RNA based life there extinct. After all if the RNA shadow biosphere is a possible hypothesis on present day Earth - why not on Mars?
As a result, it is not at all proven that any life has transferred from Earth to Mars, it remains a hypothesis at present.
Also Elon Musk himself says the first landing on Mars would be very dangerous, and it’s the landing itself that is the most dangerous part. After a Challenger style accident with astronaut bodies, air, water, food and belongings scattered in small pieces over the surface of Mars, and spores blown in the global dust storms roughly every two years, that would be the end of any chance of planetary protection of Mars.
SAFETY OF THE CREW
I know many people have said they are willing to go to Mars even if there is a high risk of dying, but the situation may be very different if they are on a spaceship to Mars and the air supply has failed, or the food has run out and they face death directly, personally, not as a romantic noble ideal in their imagination. Even if they all sign disclaimers saying that SpaceX is not responsible for their safety, that probably has limited legal vailidity and their relatives could probably tie them up in claims for decades. There’s also the setback effect on space travel generally. If a crew of a hundred astronauts all die in one go, in a failed mission to Mars, what would that do to spaceflight with humans generally in the future?
For Elon Musk so far it seems to be all about payload. I have safety concerns for Elon Musk's rockets for humans, following Doug Messier's critical reviews. See for instance his Are SpaceX’s 60 to 80 Hour Work Weeks Really Such a Good Idea?
I think it needs to be proven whether his rockets will be safe enough for humans, in particular with his workers doing 70-80 hour weeks and a NASA report showing unsafe practices such as standing on equipment while working on it, which they have addressed, and stopped doing (presumably) but still, they shouldn't have done that in the first place.
They also still have the silicon valley ethos of people working 60 - 80 hour weeks and tired people make mistakes - not ideal for human occupied spacecraft. Also, the way they are doing so many changes to the hardware so quickly when you need many test flights with the same hardware to be sure of safety for humans.
He hasn't yet sent a human into flight, not even a test pilot so it is a lot of confidence and extrapolation. And will the reused rockets be as safe as they were originally?
The problem is that human spaceflight needs far higher safety levels than unmanned flight. One launch lost in 50 is fine for unmanned flight. But not for humans. And it takes a fair bit of while to establish safety for human ships. A good escape system in event of an accident on the launch pad is a good start. But will their working ethos and company practices lead to an escape system that does indeed work flawlessly when it is needed? Will they be able to approach something like the reliability of the Soyuz TMA?
The problem is that unlike cars, you can’t do many tests of the rockets. Would you drive a car that has only been tested a dozen times, to make sure it starts correctly without its engine exploding and killing everyone on board? If the manufacturer fits an ejector seat to the car so that you get ejected from it safely in the event of the engine exploding, just in time to escape the effects of the explosion, how much confidence would you then have in driving that car? Some people would drive it if they are used to such risks and only drive it occasionally and it goes somewhere they can’t get to in any other way.
As a result flying into space is likely to remain high risk for a while.
He's already proved SpaceX is a leader in unmanned spaceflight, but I see it as "watch this spot" for manned flights. Not just for SpaceX, also for all the manned flight companies. I think also that they should be sold as high risk. That much Elon Musk does do. He doesn’t claim that it is going to be safe, unlike Virgin Galactica who rather play up the safety aspect of their system I think well above what is likely, selling it to celebrities as if flying into space was similar in safety to flying in a plane.
We can’t expect them to make their rockets as safe to “drive” as a car - that’s unrealistic. But will SpaceX achieve a safety level that is acceptable for human spaceflight, with the higher risks that are accepted in that field? I don’t know yet, wish him well that they do!
So anyway this is something that is within government oversight. To check to make sure any vehicles that are used by the general public (and private companies selling rides into space do fall into that category), whether private or publicly owned and developed, satisfy the relevant safety levels, whatever is appropriate for the particular vehicle and use of it. In the particular case of spaceflight it also is relevant because of the long term effects on spaceflight generally in case of a major disaster in space.
LIFE SUPPORT
Life support for a mission of a few days is comparatively easy - lots to go wrong but we have done it many times. Longer term missions up to a few months between resupply is also proven though much harder, it works on the ISS and worked on MIR and Skylab but with a fair number of glitches needing rescue by sending emergency supplies of oxygen and equipment from Earth.
It's my understanding that many experts would say that life support is the most difficult challenge of all for a deep space mission. Getting the mass there is easy but making sure what you have keeps a human alive for years on end is tough. And at that point it is not demonstrated technology. The ISS system could perhaps work but you are talking about a new spacecraft, not sending the ISS on a deep space mission, and then you have the problems of zero g - nobody has yet survived in space in zero g for long enough to get to Mars and back except for one individual who got close to the time needed but he might have had exceptional health in zero g, he could be an outlier. And he had to do 2 hours exercise each day and was trained as a doctor.
The solution may well be artificial gravity, but that has to be tested and shown to work.
I don't think cosmic radiation is such a big issue if you can manage the huge payloads that Elon Musk talks about. You can solve it by throwing more mass at it by having lots of shielding, and also by accepting that you will have a higher risk of cancer when you get back.
But health is in zero g, and use of artificial gravity are major issues.
Then the life support systems are very complex and many gases that have to be purged that can harm humans if they build up, and oxygen generators can fail, CO2 scrubbers rail etc. And food can go off, and the ISS hasn't really worked much in practice on the problems of carrying food with you that you open and use two years later. Lots of small details to be sorted out about things like that and I'id say you need lots of test flights closer to Earth to be sure it works. And they need to be multi-year in duration so it would take longer than it did for the test flights for Apollo which were only several days in duration.
I think that before we send human missions as far as Mars orbit, all of that should be addressed. A private company might not have the breadth of vision to see all the issues especially if it is doing something that has never been done before.
The obvious answer is to go to the Moon first, where it’s much easier to support crew with any problems from Earth, and you can get back in a couple of days.
I don’t think flights to Mars should be approved until we have a fair bit of experience on the Moon or closer to had first. That includes flights to Mars orbit, which if done well are find according to planetary protection, but I think they need to be proven safe first.
And this is a situation where governments can legitimately step in, if some company is enthusiastically promoting something that is seriously unsafe beyond the limits of what is acceptable even to adventurers and people who take extreme risks. I think that might be the case for these fast to Mars plans.
Also planetary protection is a larger issue than any company as it involves making a decision for the whole world, an irreversible decision about the future of Mars for all future time, whether to introduce Earth life to it or not. I don’t think such a huge decision should be left up to enthusiastic entrepreneurs who convince themselves that it is harmless and will not get in the way of science and is beneficial for the future of humanity - unless experts internationally agree with them on that assessment.
See my Case For Moon First
In short, it is just fantasy and science fiction, and not realistic. It’s not at all as easy as the science fiction suggests. Kim Stanley Robinson’s book suggests just a few generations but he does...
(more)In short, it is just fantasy and science fiction, and not realistic. It’s not at all as easy as the science fiction suggests. Kim Stanley Robinson’s book suggests just a few generations but he does it with a lot of artistic license fudging of the numbers for the sake of a good story - as is of course normal in science fiction writing.
RELEASING CO2 WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS
Elon Musk himself suggested dropping nuclear weapons on the Mars poles some time back. But many people came in with criticism of that - which was just an off hand remark. The numbers don’t work out, even the largest nuclear weapon ever built is not nearly powerful enough. You'd need 25,000 gigaton bombs each one 20 times more powerful than the largest nuclear weapon ever built, to equal the effect of a single 10 km diameter comet hitting the poles of Mars. And that's a size of comet that hits Mars from time to time so it’s obviously not enough to warm it up.
Coming at it another way if you use a Tsar bomba, 50 megatons, largest nuclear weapon ever detonated, and all the energy went into sublimating dry ice, then each Tsar Bomba would liberate 50,000*4184000/184, or 1.137 billion tons of CO2 which sounds a lot until you realize the current Mars atmosphere is 25 trillion tons. To double the atmospheric pressure, enough to have water liquid on the surface, needs 25 trillion / 1.137 billion or 22,000 Tsar Bombas.
But that wouldn’t be a runaway greenhouse - the CO2 would just all condense back to the poles after a while. To have a runaway greenhouse you need 10% of Earth’s atmospheric pressure or nine times that, or around 200,000 Tsar Bombas - or around 10,000 one gigaton bombs.
The Mars atmosphere is currently at A in this graph- an equilibrium of temperature and CO2 pressure. For a runaway greenhouse it has to get to B which requires 10% of the Earth’s atmosphere as CO2 released, or in other words increasing the atmospheric pressure on Mars ten times.
To liberate this much CO2 just the process of turning dry ice into gas, without any temperature rises, involves 10,000 one gigaton bombs. with all the energy from all those bombs only used to turn dry ice into gas. Obviously in practice it would require a lot more than that as only a tiny fraction of the yield would liberate the CO2
And - that’s with all the energy from the explosion used only to turn dry ice into gas, none needed to warm it up and none of it escaping into space or used to damage the surface etc. That’s obviously unrealistic.
As well as that then there’s the problem that we don’t know if there is enough CO2 on Mars. There is enough dry ice to nearly double its atmosphere, but there probably isn’t enough to make it ten times in mass.
Thickness Map of Buried Carbon-Dioxide Deposit - Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter - discovery of a deposit up to 600 meters thick nearthe south pole of Mars in 2011.
Red here indicates a thickness of 600 meters of dry ice, yellow is about 400; dark blue is less than 100, tapering to zero
It's about 9,500 to 12,500 cubic kilometers - so about 15.2 - 20 teratons at the density of dry ice of 1.6 tons per cubic meter - not quite enough to double the Mars atmosphere of 25 teratons, but close to it.
So no, nuclear weapons are no good here, despite the media hype about them. For more on that, including detailed working out for these calculations, see my Why Nukes Can't Terraform Mars - Pack Less Punch Than A Comet Collision
RELEASING WATER WITH NUCLEAR WEAPONS
It is similar for the idea of turning ice into water. If we used 100,000 gigaton bombs (5 million Tsar Bombas), this would melt the estimated 11 meters of water equivalent over the surface of Mars thought to be available on Mars according to one estimate. Again all of that has to go into melting the ice, no allowance for warming it up, and no allowance for energy lost from the explosion through its other effects.
Also though it sounds impressive, 11 meters of water, remember that the Mars equatorial region is dry to depths of hundreds of meters. It’s like pouring the water into the Sahara sands. Just about all of Mars except the higher latitudes, is as dry as the Sahara to considerable depths.
And remember that unless Mars is far warmer than Earth, it’s ice cap would be similar to Earth’s in size on a terraformed world with water, rain and snow. As it is now, it is much smaller than Earth’s. So it’s not clear you’d have much free water at all if you melted the ice somehow and then somehow kept it as warm as Earth from then on. It would still have to have ice caps at both poles, and most of the water left over, if any, would just disappear into the desert sands.
It did have oceans in the past but Mars seems to have lost all that water, possibly underground but most of it into space, dissociated into hydrogen and oxygen, lost the hydrogen, oxidized the iron on the surface of Mars removed the oxygen.
Elon Musk later said he meant that we could warm up Mars using a mini sun created by continuously exploding nuclear weapons above the poles of Mars. That is a science fiction future scenario that we are nowhere near capable of doing, and obviously requiring a far larger output of energy than the numbers above.
OTHER WAYS TO WARM UP MARS
There are other ideas for warming up Mars, but they make optimistic asssumptions about the amount of CO2 there or use comets to bring them in. And they are all mega technology.
One way is to use a thin film mirror to reflect light to Mars. You need to double the amount of sunlight to get to Earth like conditions, and thin film mirrors might way one gram per square meter, so that’s one ton per square kilometer, or 36 million tons for half the cross sectional area of Mars. If you have very thin films maybe you can get that down to a million tons??
Another approach is to use a smaller mirror positioned to focus light on the poles only, this can be 110 km in diameter and with a mass of of the order of 30,000 tons (or using 6 grams per square meter material, 200,000 tons), see Technological Requirements for Terraforming Mars
Or you can use greenhouse gases. That needs 25 billion tons of greenhouse gases they work out, with fluorine as a key component . So that then involves mining 13 cubic kilometers of fluorite ore a century on Mars - of course you have to find the ore also to mine it. Then making greenhouse gases needs a lot of power too. To do the greenhouse gas manufacture requires an estimated 500 half gigawatt nuclear power plants running continuously for that same century, all just used for greenhouse gas production.
But you still have the problem that it probably doesn’t have enough CO2.
OTHER RESERVOIRS OF CO2 ON MARS
Zubrin's ideas, in Case for Mars. is based on modeling exchange of CO2 with the regolith The Case For Mars
There's a 1974 paper saying much the same thing here
However this paper suggests that H2O adsorption would displace the dry ice, reducing the estimate 6 or 7 times, this is from 1994
And this is a more modern estimate, it goes through the various possibilities which also include clathrates in the cryosphere. Tracing the fate of carbon and the atmospheric evolution of Mars
A lot of the early CO2 turned to carbonates. They go through various other options such as clathrates and adsorption on regolith, and conclude:
"The amount of CO2 contained in the identified atmospheric, polar and subsurface reservoirs under its molecular form is probably not in excess of a few tens or one hundred or so millibars."
So if you were very optimistic there you might think 10% was achievable.
So, I think he is right that there could be CO2 in the regolith, perhaps enough to raise atmospheric pressure to 10% though over a long period of time surely, as it would only warm up slowly from the top with those greenhouse gases or mirrors or whatever. If it did get as far as an optimistic 10% then it would be stable at that point and could stay at that level without more greenhouse gases - though Mars would be very cold still, without greenhouse gases, with 10% CO2 atmosphere - if you look at the graph above, the average polar temperature is around 162 °K or about -111 °C.
To get it to 100% of Earth’s probably you have to import it using comets, or you could perhaps release it from the carbonates using a cyanobacteria, an idea suggested here: Terraforming Mars: dissolution of carbonate rocks by cyanobacteria.
Could that be used to set up a carbon cycle on Mars to return the CO2 to the atmosphere? Based on a different method from the volcanoes and continental drift of Earth?
SUPPOSE YOU ARE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT RESERVOIRS OF CO2 IN THE REGOLITH OR USE CYANOBACTERIA OR LOTS OF COMETS - THOUSAND YEAR PROJECT
Anyway supposing that you optimistically say it does, that there are huge reservoirs in the regolith, supplemented maybe using many comets, to reach 1 bar, and you somehow find the water needed, on Mars or through cometary impacts.
In that case, then the estimate of the time taken to reach an atmosphere similar to Earth but made of CO2, with trees growing on Mars in the tropical areas, would be around 1,000 years according to the optimisitic Mars society projections.
After a thousand years, this is not an atmosphere that animals, birds or humans can breathe even with oxygen breathers. CO2 is poisonous to us above 1%. You would need a closed system more like an aqualung than the oxygen masks used by mountain climbers and high altitude pilots. Also even with a pure Earth atmospheric pressure CO2 atmosphere it would probably be too cold for trees to grow even in equatorial regions so you’d need to continue with the global mirrors or the greenhouse gases into the indefinite future to keep it warm enough for trees.
TO MAKE IT BREATHABLE - ANOTHER 100,000 YEARS
Having got that far, then to make it breathable, somehow you have to sequestrate all that carbon out of the atmosphere to turn it to oxygen ,and at the same time introduce some neutral gas like nitrogen (or the atmosphere would be so flammable it would be dangerous).
To get the carbon out of the atmosphere as algae or peat or trees would take around 100,000 years - faster if you can increase the amount of sunlight with those planet sized thin film mirrors. This is quite optimistic as on Earth of course it took many millions of years.
As for obtaining all that nitrogen, maybe from comets? Sending ammonia rich comets to Mars?
And then once you have oxygen instead of CO2, of course, that means that it gets much colder. So you need more mega technology at that point, to warm it up more than you are doing already, into the foreseeable future to keep it warm, keep producing those greenhouse gases, century after century, or maintain those planet sized mirrors.
It is nothing like the easy process and timescale of the Mars trilogy science fiction you might have expected if you are keen on terraforming.
But for an optimistic take on it, see Zubrin and McKay’s Technological Requirements for Terraforming Mars
IS THIS WHAT OUR DESCENDANTS 100,000 YEARS FROM NOW WILL WANT? AND WHAT ABOUT POLITICAL WILL TO COMPLETE THE PROJECT?
There is no way that they would do it themselves, they’d be struggling to survive at all.
And wouldn’t it all be better spent protecting and preserving Earth? Or setting up habitats that can be completed in a few decades, such as lunar cave colonies or Stanford Torus colonies or colonies floating in the Venus clouds, or domed cities?
OTHER ISSUES
There are many other issues, biological, planetary protection of Mars and Earth, setting up all the necessary ecosystem cycles - with many gaps needing to be filled in (One example: how is CO2 returned to the atmosphere when it turns into carbonate rocks? Here on Earth then it’s done by continental drift and volcanoes returning CO2 as a constant input into the atmosphere but Mars has no continental drift). And is an oxygen rich atmosphere a likely endpoint anyway? What if nature doesn’t co-operate and it turns into a methane rich atmosphere instead, on Mars ,say. What if the lifeforms that flourish there are harmful to humans?
But here I’m just looking at the engineering challenges. For the other challenges see list of articles at the end.
ROLE FOR HUMANS IN SPACE
I think humans do have a role in space. But I think this idea of trying to create a second Earth in order to go “multiplanetary” is rather quixotic. We are nowhere near the stage as a civilization where we can embark on a career as planetary ecoengineers and hundred thousand year long projects. Nor do we know enough yet about planets or about ecosystems and life support.
While, if it is just domed cities and cave habitats, then let’s drop the “multiplanetary” as it is of little or no significance whether they are on Mars or on the Moon or in the Venus clouds or in the asteroid belt. And in that case is it not best to start in the safest and easiest places first? I.e. our Moon.
What we can do is to create habitats in space that have small closed system ecosystems in them. Not try to do a whole planet. Do a habitat first a few meters then tens of meters across, then kilometers across. Those are projects we can complete on realistic human timescales of a decade or so. They would be hugely challenging too but within our realistic possibility of doing something about.
And amongst the best places to do this would be in the lunar caves which are quite possibly 100 kilometers long and kilometers in diameter in the lesser gravity there. Another good place to try early life support like this might be the lunar poles. But we need to explore using robots first I think, controlled from Earth. We will start that in a small way next year with the Google X prize winners.
But we need some other reason to be there, there’s no way space is going to be as easy a place to live as Earth in the near future for some time to come. I think the Moon is most likely to have other reasons to be there sufficient to perhaps eventually have large numbers of people there, maybe into the tens of thousands, who knows, maybe eventually millions. Can’t see that happening further afield in the near future.
I also don’t think our present priority in space is to get as many humans as possible living in space as fast as possible. That’s also rather quixotic, a bit like the adventurers who discovered Antarctica deciding that they had to find a way to get as many people as possible living in Antarctica as quickly as possible. Space is far more hostile than Antarctica, even the most habitable places.
Let’s take it a bit more slowly and find out what is there and make later decisions once we know what the situation is that we face better.
See also
Venus I think is far more habitable than Mars. You wouldn’ t live on the surface of course, you’d live in airships in the clouds. Earth’s atmosphere is a lifting gas there. So, as long as you maint...
(more)Venus I think is far more habitable than Mars. You wouldn’ t live on the surface of course, you’d live in airships in the clouds. Earth’s atmosphere is a lifting gas there. So, as long as you maintain the atmosphere of the hab, which you have to in any space habitat, you float and are safe. Gravity levels are as for Earth pretty much. You are shielded from cosmic radiation and also from solar storms, only vulnerabilities from them at ground level are to long distance conducting cables and you wouldn’t have those. UV is easy to protect against. Sulfuric acid droplets are far far easier to protect against than the vacuum of deep space or Mars - you can do it with a thin layer of teflon on the outside of your suit or habitat or other acid resistant plastics. And the Venus atmosphere is rich in all the main ingredients of life: C,N, O, H and also it has a fair bit of sulfur too. The launch mass for the habitat is far lighter than anywhere else for the same population and with a larger interior volume. The main drawback is getting back, which doesn’t however require a Saturn V - you just need a capsule to take the crew to a receiving ship in low orbit above Venus, so something like a Pegasus air launch would do the trick.
But Venus doesn’t have a business case. Nor does Mars, and it also has planetary protection concerns, introducing Earth life to the planet can potentially confuse the search for life and could rob us of the next big discovery in biology. The only place that could perhaps have a near future business case is the Moon. Whether that leads to large numbers of people there, or large numbers of robots and a few people, or just doesn’t work out at all, I don’t know. I think that the Moon can however be a tourist destination, a place for scientists and explorers and much easier of access from Earth and much more habitable than you might guess.
I don’t think either can be colonized right now. Mars shouldn’t be anyway for planetary protection reasons, because we could be robbing ourselves and our descendants of discoveries in biology as significant as the discovery of the double helix structure of DNA, or the discovery of evolution itself. It could be that significant, what we might find if we find either some early form of life on Mars, e.g. RNA world life with no DNA or proteins, or some other form of life made extinct by DNA life on Earth - or some exobiology based on a totally different biochemistry. Also, some of the things we could find there might be very vulnerable to introduced Earth microbes.
Humans aren’t the problem but the microbes that accompany us are. It’s especially easy to see this I think for Mars because the whole planet is interconnected through global dust storms which can shield microbial spores from UV light and it has potential surface habitats such as the RSLs that Earth life may be able to colonize, with many microbes and even lichens shown able to survive Mars conditions in Mars simulation experiments.
Robert Zubrin and a few astrobiologists also have put forward a bold hypothesis that what we will find on Mars is identical to Earth life in all respects, or sufficiently identical that there is no need for planetary protection of Mars. However, this is not at all proven and indeed very much a minority view.
It is indeed possible that some life has got to Mars from Earth. Microbes hardy enough to withstand the shock of ejection from Earth after a giant impact (such as the one 66 million years ago), re-entry and impact on Mars, a century of extreme cold, vacuum and cosmic radiation - and to survive the percholorates, and to find some habitat they can survive in when they get to Mars. There are some lifeforms that can do all that but we don’t know if they have made it ot Mars. Most Earth life certainly hasn’t and wouldn’t last even a fraction of the time needed for that journey. The easiest time for this to happen is in the very early solar system over three billion years ago.
As an example of what we might find on Mars and might be vulnerable to Earth life - the shadow biosphere hypothesis suggests that there may be RNA based life on Earth that uses RNA without DNA or proteins. We haven’t found it, but something simpler must have preceded DNA based life. The reason we can’t find it on Earth is probably because DNA based life made it extinct. So what if it still exists on Mars? Even if a few microbes from Earth got to Mars they might not have been enough to make all RNA based life there extinct. After all if the RNA shadow biosphere is a possible hypothesis on present day Earth - why not on Mars?
As a result, it is not at all proven that any life has transferred from Earth to Mars, it remains a hypothesis at present.
Also Elon Musk himself says the first landing on Mars would be very dangerous, and it’s the landing itself that is the most dangerous part. After a Challenger style accident with astronaut bodies, air, water, food and belongings scattered in small pieces over the surface of Mars, and spores blown in the global dust storms roughly every two years, that would be the end of any chance of planetary protection of Mars.
Venus might possibly have life in its clouds, because of the discovery of non spherical particles, also detection of Carbonyl Sulphide - a clear sign of life here on Earth (though it could be created inorganically on Venus). And Earth microbes probably couldn’t survive the sulfuric acid, but they are not far off being able to, so what if there are microclimates where the acid is not so strong in the clouds? Especially if there is life there already, maybe creating microclimates of some sort? If there is Life in Venus Cloud Tops - Do we Need to Protect Earth - or Venus - Could Returned XNA mean Goodbye DNA for Instance?
So I think we need to explore the Venus clouds robotically first just to make sure. COSPAR has passed it as safe for sample return, but there was a minority dissident view there that it is not safe, in comments by exobiologists after the decision, so I think it needs to be re-examined.
However the chance doesn’t seem that great - but like Mars, if there is life in Venus clouds it would be a major discovery. Not easy for Earth life to get there, even less so than Mars, and it might well be a relic of early life on Venus which as the surface got uninhabitable migrated into the clouds where it could survive due to the very long residence time of months for particles to fall to the surface rather than days - and chance of updrafts taking them up again.
If it is okay for planetary protection, then the Venus clouds have many advantages. Sulfuric acid is not hard to protect against, you can use Teflon for instance and other plastics. Compare the cost of an acid resistant suit covered in teflon, with the $2 million spacesuit you need to protect against a vacuum, and there is no comparison. Far far easier to live in a Venus cloud colony than in space. Though that mainly highlights the difficulty of living in space or on Mars than ease of living in the Venus clouds - of course it is far easier to live on Earth where the air is breathable and there is no sulfuric acid in the atmosphere. But that’s not the comparison here. Compared to Mars, Venus cloud colonies are like paradise in terms of ease of living there.
It’s the same for the colony - the exterior only needs to be protected from acid with a thin layer of plastic. No need to protect from micrometeorites. UV radiation is easy to filter out with a thin layer also. Pressure is the same inside and out so even if it gets torn it’s a minor issue that you can fix in hours or maybe even days, rather than an emergency you have to fix in seconds to minutes.
As for need to keep Earth atmosphere inside so that it continues to float - well you have the same problem anywhere in space that you have to maintain an atmosphere inside. So long as it is breathable you float. So you don’t need to worry about remaining floating. You can have lifeboats in the form of smaller emergency airships docked to it which you get into in case of an emergency.
The main problem with Venus is that it is so hard to get back to Earth. But you only need to survive of the order of an hour or two and rendezvous with a ship in orbit in just the right trajectory to dock with you - as for the ascent stage for the lunar module rendezvousing with the command module for Apollo 11 - rather than needing to hold out for up to several days as you phase into orbit with a fixed space station as they do with the Soyuz TMA for MIR, Skylab or the ISS. You certainly don’t need something as large as the Saturn V or even the Soyuz.
You need some supplies to keep the crew alive for a few hours. You also need to be able to contain the air against the vacuum of space.
Still, it should be possible. The HAVOC mission would use something like the Pegasus air launched rockets. The Pegasus (rocket) has a payload to orbit of 443 kg. After removing 120 kg for a crew of 2 (say), that’s 323 kg. Not very much, I think it might need a somewhat souped up Pegasus? They don’t go into details of the return journey - this was a NASA concept study and most of the focus was on getting to Venus.
However it seems that a return from Venus is something we can do with humans.
The main problem is an economic case for it. But that’s the same for Mars. We don’t have an economic reason for going to either place. Venus is much lower maintenance than Mars, and much larger living area for the same mass launched to Venus per colonist. It would also have far fewer imports because you don’t need to maintain a seal against a vacuum and don’t need expensive spacesuits. Also all the most important ingredients for life are available in the atmosphere - C, H, N, O. with S also quite abundant in the upper cloud layers. You can grow trees for instance, so native wood, to build new habitats and make plastic, just using elements from the atmosphere and trace elements. So they could even build their own new habitats and so long as they can make or import the teflon to shield them, and any electronics etc, pretty much all of the structure itself can be made in situ. Not the same for Mars as the massive metal habitats protecting against the vacuum can’t be made in situ, not without a major industrial base there.
But they still have to pay somehow for the many imports they need. And it won’t be an easy place to live, just easier than Mars. And that’s where you run into problems, what could be valuable exports for them?
I go into this in detail in my Case for Moon first, see the sections Commercial value for Mars and following.
The most likely place for colonization to succeed, I think, is the Moon, up to a colony of perhaps of the order of millions of people. It is resource rich, even has volatiles including water, and significant amounts of CO2, NH3 for nitrogen, in the polar regions, in the form of ice, though we don’t know yet quite how much there is, some of the readings are promising that there are vast amounts there, also we don’t know how easy it is to extract.
The surface is rich in many metals. It may also have the heavier metals like platinum and gold - that’s Dennis Wingo’s hypothesis with some data that would seem to back it up, also makes sense that it must have been hit by many iron rich asteroids as well as the iron cores of the larger asteroids early on such as the 110 km asteroid that created the south pole Aitken basin.
If it is possible to return metals to Earth at a profit, the Moon is the easiest place to do it, because of the possibility of Hoyt’s cislunar tether which would use the position of the Moon high in the Earth’s gravitation well to make the movement of material from the Moon to Earth like rolling a rock downhill, if you use carefully placed tethers you can actually generate a bit of power, by exporting material from the Moon to LEO. By balancing the flow of materials to and from the Moon then you conserve energy and essentially use no fuel at all.
The tether is momentarily stationary relative to the lunar surface and that’s when you load it with materials sent to it from the surface. The lunavator tether in luanr orbit around the Moon to throw the payloads back to Earth. The complete system to transfer materials from LEO to the Moon and back weighs only 27 times the payload it is able to transfer. That’s using existing materials. Also the lunar tether can use payloads picked up from the surface to increase the amount of ballast and so its payload capacity. So it is not mega technology but something we could do in the near future.
"We have developed a preliminary design for a 80 km long Earth-orbit tether boost facility capable of picking payloads up from LEO and injecting them into a minimal-energy lunar transfer orbit. Using currently available tether materials, this facility would require a mass 10.5 times the mass of the payloads it can handle. After boosting a payload, the facility can use electrodynamic propulsion to reboost its orbit, enabling the system to repeatedly send payloads to the Moon without requiring propellant or return traffic. When the payload reaches the Moon, it will be caught and transferred to the surface by a 200 km long lunar tether. This tether facility will have the capability to reposition a significant portion of its “ballast” mass along the length of the tether, enabling it to catch the payload from a low-energy transfer trajectory and then “spin-up” so that it can deliver the payload to the Moon with zero velocity relative to the surface. This lunar tether facility would require a total mass of less than 17 times the payload mass. Both equatorial and polar lunar orbits are feasible for the Lunavator™"
See CISLUNAR TETHER TRANSPORT SYSTEM
We don’t have anything like this for Venus or Mars, so I think that makes the Moon a clear winner for commercial exports to LEO in the near future.
Initially I can see it exporting to spaceships, things like water also metal components that could be made with 3D printers on the Moon, solar panels which are particularly easy to make on the Moon because of the high grade vacuum. Eventually though also precious metals to Earth. The metal is easier to extract than you might think. If it is a pure deposit unoxidized, as for the nickel iron asteroids, you can use the Mond process which turns nickel into a gas at 40–60 C.
Spheres of nickel made by the Mond process. We don’t need the first high temperature phase using Syngas to convert nickel oxide to nickel as it is already in metalic form. The nickel reacts with carbon monoxide at 50–60 C to make nickel carbonyl gas, mixed with carbon monoxide. This is a temperature within the reach of solar heating in a big bag enclosing the meteorite or sample. To extract the iron requires higher temperatures.
You then heat the result to 220–250 °C to recover the pure nickel, in an attached smaller facility such as a 3D printer.
Platinum group metals are digesetd by using halides. Or it might be simpler to just send the residue back to Earth to extract the platinum group metals here
Near Earth Asteroid Utilization and Carbonyl Metallurgical Processes
Here, platinum is the most precious metal, so you’d extract the iron and nickel to get the platinum as residue, but you can also use the nickel and iron in situ as valuable metals.
Paul Spudis writes about it here: Moon First—Mine the Asteroids Later
“Once again, this procedure is simple in principle, but doing such processing in space, millions of kilometers from the Earth, raises many difficult questions, the answers to which are mostly unknown. How could we collect and store the gaseous iron and nickel carbonyls? With no gravity, magnetic field separation might be useful, but this again requires high power and complex machinery to separate the components. The containment vessel must be isolated from other components and unreacted feedstock must be cleared and recycled or discarded; can such delicate and complex operations be automated? Having humans in the control loop might answer a lot of these problems, but the most valuable asteroid might not be close to the Earth – out of reach for human missions, at least in the early stages of asteroid mining.
“I outline these difficulties not to cast doubt on the feasibility of mining in space, but rather to point out that in complex fields of endeavor, we should crawl before trying to walk and walk before attempting to run. Extracting and making useful materials from space resources is an engaging challenge, one whose mastery can change the paradigm of spaceflight. We are fortunate to have within our near grasp, a Moon that possesses abundant “dumb mass” – those resources needed to both create new space faring capability and to perfect the skills and techniques we will need to reach, secure and use the wealth of the Solar System.”
The Moon is the obvious place to go first, and as far as colonization - I think surely a fair way down the road. Just because space is so harsh. Would you choose to colonize the Sahara desert if somehow all the air was removed from it and you also had cosmic radiation requiring you to shield your homes with meters of radiation shielding and you had to wear spacesuits whenever you go outside your house? Nobody would be interested in that.
Well it would be as hard as that and more so to colonize space. So I think we may well do it, but not as soon as the enthusiasts hope, I think they are encouraged mainly by fantasy, vivid analogies with Earth colonization, and a diet of many science fiction stories they have read which make it seem so easy.
The lunar caves however, are amongst the most promising interior as large as an O’Neil habitat quite possibly if we go by the Grail radar data - they may be the easiest to convert to a colony in the near future - already shielded from micrometeorites and radiation and most of the work done to contain the atmosphere / biosphere inside. Still - that doesn’t mean easy as in “as easy as colonizing the Sahara desert or Antarctica”. It would be very tough, initially. If the moon has very valuable exports that could make it worthwhile. Meanwhile it is a place where we can have scientific outposts, and also it is well within reach of tourism from Earth, eventually you just go up there for a week or so holiday within 2 days travel there and travel back, possibly faster as our rockets get faster.
Venus atmosphere is least maintenance but rather far from Earth so hard to see tourism being a major industry there, though scientific outposts for sure, and for long term colonization, then the export needs to become much easier, and you need something that can be made there that is not made much more easily on Earth.
See also Shouldn't Musk try colonizing Venus instead of Mars? in my Case For Moon First
Yes, much easier to colonize. We are actually doing this in a small way, using deserts to grow crops, with the salt water greenhouses, so I think you can say that not only should we do it, but we a...
(more)Yes, much easier to colonize. We are actually doing this in a small way, using deserts to grow crops, with the salt water greenhouses, so I think you can say that not only should we do it, but we already are - though not so much in the Sahara, this is an Australian desert project. The sea water is used to make water through the sunlight in the desert, and cool down the greenhouses.
These ideas could be used to reverse desertification in the Sahara desert and other deserts. This is how it works:
Diagrams by Raffa be from wikipedia
It not only lets you grow crops in the greenhouses - it can also help make the surrounding areas more habitable, so you’d get trees and crops growing in an area around the greenhouses as well. Doesn’t extract anything from desert aquifers, rather, it adds to them.
Sundrop farms have a large area set out for greenhouses like this now, in the middle of a desert, so this is taking off in a big way in Australia. Early days yet though.
This video just shows the greenhouses, and when they go inside in the video there is nothing growing there yet, not sure why, maybe it is a new installation, but it shows how it’s quite big in Australia.
There are many countries working on reversing desertification Israel does a lot of reversing of desertification.
One of the worst areas of desertification is the southern edge of the Sahara desert which is creeping south. So the first priority there is to stop the spreading desertification - then to reverse it.
There is a similar project underway there now too, the Sahara forestation project, again using seawater greenhouses.
Technologies - Sahara Forest Project
There’s also the idea of floating sea cities, a similar idea again, but now just floating in the sea. However this is at a much earlier stage, more of a paper project at present. Still it is very similar to the Mars colony ideas, but much easier to do and floating on the sea.
The Seasteading Institute | Opening humanity's next frontier
This gives far more food / living space for the cost, compared with the billions of dollars to set up a few people in a space habitat, and far far easier to build a greenhouse in a desert on a planet with abundant sea water, and breathable air, than to do it on Mars.
Going into space is not the optimal way to create a larger habitable area for humans in our solar system at present, as much of Earth is uninhabited - and not areas that are in need of conservation either - of course some desert areas are of great ecological interest but there are plenty of places where the desert is not of especial interest, and where colonization would be beneficial.
There’s the surface of the sea also. We could have sea cities covering much of the seas if we really need more space for people to live. If self sustaining colonies are indeed possible on Mars, they are certainly possible and much easier to construct, floating in the sea. I mean ones that only use the sea water and the air and nothing else, with a few imports from Earth - that would be the equivalent of a Mars habitat. No need for fishing or anything else, just air, and sea water, and the materials to build the city originally, and some imports, and you are in a far better situation than you could ever be on Mars.
The air is breathable, no need to generate oxygen or to scrub the air of harmful gases, the Earth as a global system does that for you, just open your windows or make sure you have a bit of ventilation in your homes. There is no need for several meters thickness of cosmic radiation protection. You don’t need to wear spacesuits to go outside to repair the habitat, and there is no need to hold the breathable air in against tons per square meter of outwards pressure - hard to beat that.
Also, it would have minimal impact on sea life if done that way.
I think there is a case for sending humans into space, I think the Moon is the obvious first destination. Things we can do include
I think there are many good reasons for going into space with humans. But this is not one of them in my view.
See also my Case For Moon First
As for the idea we have to go to Mars to go multiplanetary, no, I don’t think we need to do that at all. What we have to do is to protect and save Earth, the only place easily habitable by humans in the solar system. I think that a rush to send humans to Mars would
It would take a while to explain all that in detail - so see my Wait, Let's Not Rush To Be Multiplanetary Or Interstellar - A Comment On Elon Musk's Vision
Yes, many. It depends on whether the postulated liquid water habitats there exist. There's an almost bewildering variety of suggestions for habitats on Mars for life. The main ones are (these links...
(more)Yes, many. It depends on whether the postulated liquid water habitats there exist. There's an almost bewildering variety of suggestions for habitats on Mars for life. The main ones are (these links take you to my online booklet)
There's a wide variety of views also on the topic of whether any of these are habitable, and whether they actually have life in them, from almost impossible to very likely, see Views on the possibility of present day life on or near the surface, and for the idea that they may be inhabitable but uninhabited, see Uninhabited habitats.
If these habitats do exist, and are habitable, we have a long list of candidate microbes that have been shown to be potentially able to survive Mars conditions in Mars simulation experiments here on Earth.
Martian conditions in miniature - researchers at DLR (German equivalent of NASA) testing lichens in Mars simulation experiments. They recreated the atmospheric composition and pressure, the planet's surface, the temperature cycles and the solar radiation incident on the surface.
They showed that some Earth life (Lichens and strains of chrooccocidiopsis, a green algae) can survive Mars surface conditions and photosynthesize and metabolize, slowly, in absence of any water at all. They could make use of the humidity of the Mars atmosphere.[46][47][48][49][50]
Though the absolute humidity is low, the relative humidity at night reaches 100% because of the large day / night swings in atmospheric pressure and temperature.
This is a list I compiled from a survey of the literature a while back.
Most of these candidates are single cell microbes (or microbial films). The closest Mars analogue habitats on Earth such as the hyper arid core of the Atacama desert are inhabited by microbes, with no multicellular life. So even if multicellular life evolved on Mars, it seems that most life on Mars is likely to be microbial.
Because of the low levels of oxygen of 0.13% in the atmosphere, and (as far as we know) in any of the proposed habitats, all the candidate lifeforms are anaerobes or able to tolerate extremely low levels of oxygen. This also makes multicellular animal life unlikely, though not impossible as there are a few anaerobic multi-cellular creatures[213]. Some multicellular plant life such as lichens, however, may be well adapted to Martian conditions (this was a bit of a surprise to the researchers as lichens are symbiotes of algae and fungi, and fungi need oxygen - however, it seems that the algae supply enough oxygen for the fungus even when there is hardly any oxygen in the atmosphere around them).
Also some multicellular life such as Halicephalobus mephisto can survive using very low levels of oxygen which may perhaps be present in some Mars habitats.
This is a copy of my section Candidate lifeforms for Mars in my booklet Places on Mars to Look for Microbes, Lichens, ...
You might also be interested in my Wait, Let's Not Rush To Be Multiplanetary Or Interstellar - A Comment On Elon Musk's Vision
The plans are exciting if he can get them to work. SpaceX haven’t yet sent a human into space, not even a test pilot, so I think a bit of a reality check is in order here. They have had many unmann...
(more)The plans are exciting if he can get them to work. SpaceX haven’t yet sent a human into space, not even a test pilot, so I think a bit of a reality check is in order here. They have had many unmanned flights using the same rocket they will use for humans, but that's not quite the same as actually sending a human into space.
They have also had two incidents with the Falcon nine, the second leading to it blowing up while refueling, stationary on the launch site, and before the test burn of the engine - such a rare form of accident it hasn't been seen for decades. Doug Messier has an interesting opinion piece here, questioning the wisdom of bringing Silicon Valley working practices of 60-80 hour weeks, multi-tasking, and frequent hardware and software upgrades to the rocket industry. See Are SpaceX’s 60 to 80 Hour Work Weeks Really Such a Good Idea?
There's no question, they have already achieved amazing things and have reached the reliability levels needed for unmanned launches. But are they ready for manned flights? This spaceship for a hundred people is a fair way down the road yet. And what happens if the rocket blows up on the launch pad? How do they ensure that those 100 people survive such an accident safely? I'm not saying they won't do it, not at all, just a reality check and a caution that it is early days yet.
If they do achieve this rocket, and do it safely, it will be a major accomplishment and milestone. I think they would need to do a fair number of long duration tests closer to Earth before it’s safe to go on an interplanetary mission.
Having 100 crew on one rocket does have a downside though, as it would be a major disaster and set back if it exploded with them all on board or there was a failed launch or some other set back of that sort. He says himself in his presentation that the first flights will be risky.
Assuming it all does work, then I have many issues with the idea of sending humans ot Mars so soon, and I don’t think we need to become interplanetary. If we spend decades on this effort to try to set up a human colony on Mars, we may destroy our chances of ground breaking scientific results, first of all. If one of these ships ,complete with its 100 residents, crashes on Mars then that surely is the end of all planetary protection of the planet.
Then to put so much effort into this, when we could instead be protecting Earth, finding asteroids and deflecting them, moving our industry off planet, solar power in space, who knows what else we could do with such a massive outlay of effort. Especially if they intend to terraform Mars - that’s a huge undertaking which I happen to think is well beyond our capabilities at present, and maybe never can be done, but we could spend a lot of time and resources attempting it, especially if he convinces governments to partner with him as is his aim.
However I think it could be of great value if it does work, and if developed in a step by step way. It could be useful for transporting materials and eventually people to and from the Moon. Like that, as a shuttle from Earth to Moon and back, refueled from Earth, passengers only go on board when ready to set off, it could be much safer perhaps. . It could support industry on the Moon, a major tourist trade there, who knows what. And the technology could be used for scientific missions throughout our solar system and also people.
See also my
Yes, they have many similarities to the surface of Mars. Obviously there are differences also, but first the similarities:
Yes, they have many similarities to the surface of Mars. Obviously there are differences also, but first the similarities:
It’s one of the places on Earth so cold and dry that the life there consists mainly of microbes. Multicellular life can be found almost everywhere on Earth. The main exceptions are driest areas of the Atacama desert and the McMurdo dry valleys. But on Mars this would be one of the most habitable spots on the surface - for that reason even if Mars developed multicellular life, maybe even has it now deep below the surface somewhere, it seems unlikely to have much of it on the surface now except possibly lichens. Though of course it is risky to make such a generalization based on our DNA / RNA / Protein based life as the only biochemistry we know about in the universe so far.
Differences include
McMurdo dry valleys in Antarctica
Researchers scout out field sites in Antarctica's Beacon Valley, one of the most Mars-like places on Earth. Image credit: NASA
These valleys lie on the edge of the Antarctic plateau. They are kept clear of ice and snow by fast katabatic winds that blow from the plateau down through the valleys. As a result they are amongst the coldest and driest areas in the world.
Katabatic winds
The central region of Beacon Valley is considered to be one of the best terrestrial analogues for the current conditions on Mars. There is snowdrift and limited melting around the edges and occasionally in the central region, but for the most part, moisture is only found as thin films of brine around permafrost structures. It has slightly alkaline salt rich soil.
Don Juan pond
This small pond in Antarctica, 100 meters by 300 meters, and 10 cm deep, is of great interest for studying the limits of habitability for present day life on Mars.
Research using a time lapse camera shows that it is partly fed by deliquescing salts revealing dark tracks that resemble the Recurrent Slope Lineae on Mars. The salts absorb water by deliquescence only, at times of high humidity, then flows down the slope as salty brines. These then mix with snow melt, which feeds the lake. The first part of this process may be related to the processes that form the RSLs on Mars.
It has an exceptionally low water activity of 0.3 to 0.6. Though microbes have been cultivated from it, they have not been shown to be able to reproduce in the salty conditions present in the lake, and it is possible that they only got there through being washed in by the rare occasions of snow melt feeding the lake. If this turns out to be the case, it may possibly be the only natural water body of any size without indigenous life on the Earth. For details, see #Lowest water activity level for life on Mars.
For more about this and other analogues of Mars on Earth see my Places on Mars to Look for Microbes, Lichens, … - Present Day Mars Analogue Habitats on Earth.
Yes I’d say he is right. I’ve been saying that the UK should disarm since the early 1970s, well actually before then, in the late 1960s as a young teenager - my whole life ever since I understood w...
(more)Yes I’d say he is right. I’ve been saying that the UK should disarm since the early 1970s, well actually before then, in the late 1960s as a young teenager - my whole life ever since I understood what it meant, I’ve been against the bomb and in favour of unilateral disarmament by the UK. The situation is more complex for the US and if I was in the US I don't know what I'd say. But the UK can disarm without upsetting any global balances, and this will make both Europe and the world a safer place to live. So why would anyone say that?
Here he is addressing the crowd in the anti-Trident rally in 2016 this year.
Jeremy Corbyn at the Stop Trident rally in Trafalgar square on Saturday 27th February 2016, photograph by Gary Knight
M.A.D. IS MAD
Personally, I find the whole idea of MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) just nonsense myself, always have right through the cold war, and I think Jeremy Corbyn was right to say that he would never use the UK nuclear weapons under any circumstances. If someone did drop a nuclear bomb on your country, what good does it do to anyone to launch nuclear weapons to kill millions of their citizens at that point? I think the only ethical response is not to launch in response.
So if you think that way what are they for in the first place? I don't think they have reduced war casualties as we have continued to have many major wars all the way through to the present.
I think it is largely some kind of psychological thing not based on an ethical logic, this idea of balancing numbers of nuclear weapons. However the argument does affect people even so, so that's why I'd be a bit conflicted about what to say as a US citizen. It would be tougher to argue for unilateral disarmament for the US because of this emotional argument that seems for some reason to convince people, even though I don't see how nuclear weapons protect the US either.
UK IN A PERFECT POSITION TO LEAD WITH A UNILATERAL ACTION
But with the UK I think we have a perfect opportunity to show through unilateral action that complete disarmament is possible and safe. After all most countries in Europe don't have nuclear weapons and don't feel they need to have them either.
I think we’d make quite an impression there, as only the third country to successfully test a nuclear weapon. We have had the bomb since our first successful nuclear weapons test Operation Hurricane in 1952 (first Russian test RDS-1 in 1949 and first US test Trinity in 1945).
For such a long standing nuclear weapons state to give up the bomb would send a huge signal to other countries I think.
WE DON’T NEED NUCLEAR WEAPONS
No country in just about the entire southern hemisphere has nuclear weapons now. That's one effect of South Africa disarming preemptively in 1989. It lead directly to the African Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty. So one nation disarming can have a big knock on effect. South Africa’s actions haven’t had much effect on Europe for sure. But they had a huge effect on Africa and the Southern Hemisphere.
Signatories of the African Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty - states that have ratified in green, and signed but not ratified in yellow. South Africa’s decision to give up the bomb didn’t have much effect on Europe but it lead to this nuclear free zone in Africa.
In this picture all the blue areas, including just about the entire southern hemisphere, are Nuclear-weapon-free zones
I believe that we in the UK could start to have a similar effect in the Northern Hemisphere by unilaterally disarming. Though of course we have much further to go by way of reducing numbers of nuclear weapons than the Southern Hemisphere.
This is not going to solve all the problems overnight. But the UK disarming won't make the situation in troubled places such as N. Korea any worse - our nuclear weapons are doing nothing there.
HOW DO NUCLEAR WEAPONS DEFEND AGAINST NORTH KOREA ANYWAY?
I don't think nuclear weapons defend anyone against anyone else with nuclear weapons - the only way forward is to make them unthinkable to the extent that nobody even sees any point in having them. The example of North Korea I think gives a particularly clear example here.
If N. Korea was to drop a nuclear weapon on S. Korea or Japan - would the US respond by dropping a nuclear weapon on N. Korea? I don't see it myself. How would that help in that situation?
After using a nuclear bomb, N. Korea would then have everyone against it, world wide, including, surely, China. How could China support N. Korea in such an action?
Since they depend so much on China, I can't imagine their regime would last for long if they were the only country to have dropped a nuclear weapon since Hiroshima and Nagasake, and nobody else responded in kind.
While if the US then bombed N. Korea then they would be seen as just as bad as N. Korea in that respect. I think surely that would lead to a lot of condemnation of the US (especially from China of course) and people wanting to dissociate with them, and it would mean the US was the direct cause of appalling suffering.
The only way I can see this situation resolved is through pressure on N. Korea to disarm. So then, if other countries outside N. Korea get rid of nuclear weapons, then that gives more moral pressure on N. Korea. Ultimately we need China on our side to do something about N. Korea, as it has a lot of influence in N. Korea. If I understand it right, N. Korea can probably go it alone with only support from China and China sees it as a buffer against the West.
WE MUST DO SOMETHING ABOUT THE PERCEPTION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS AS A STATUS SYMBOL AND A CRITERION FOR MEMBERSHIP IN AN EXCLUSIVE CLUB
With the UK, one of the main arguments the pro Trident MPs had in the Trident debate was that we will be able to keep our position of power in the security council as a nation with nuclear weapons.
That's all wrong, it shouldn't be like that. States shouldn't be rewarded with more power and influence if they have the bomb - that is sending a message to others that the way to gain status is to develop nuclear weapons. We must do something about this perception, to make progress, otherwise we’ll continue to get states trying to get the bomb as a status symbol and to gain power and influence.
I think in the UK, we'd have more status as a country that has the capability to make nuclear weapons easily and has given it up. Maybe it would take a while. Maybe we would not have that status with everyone, especially the US, and maybe not so much to start with. But one of the things we can do by giving up the nuclear weapons is to make a start on a shift of attitudes where nuclear weapons are no longer a status symbol and considered essential for security.
That has to start somewhere, people's attitudes to this have to change somehow for disarmament to become a reality. I think the UK as such a prominent country in the history of development of nuclear weapons is ideally positioned to start this process.
COST OF TRIDENT
Nuclear weapons are also fabulously expensive. Trident will cost an estimated £205 bn according to campaigners (the UK government has refused to answer questions about how much it will cost, although asked numerous times during the commons debate, effectively giving the project a blank cheque).
That’s about $266 billion.
What could we do instead with $266 billion! As someone who often writes about asteroid defense - we could start by funding the Sentinel space telescope to protect Earth against asteroids by discovering nearly all of them down to 20 meters in diameter in less than a decade. The telescope is designed and could be launched in the near future if they could find the funding of 450 million dollars. If we can find impactors many years in advance, just the tiniest of nudges of centimeters per second or less can deflect them enough so that years later they will miss Earth.
It would sit inside of Earth close to Venus's orbit giving it a good field of view of NEOs close to the sun. It looks away from the sun to avoid being blinded by it - and it can then see faint NEOs that are in between the Earth and the Sun which is the hardest place to spot them from our current Earth based surveys. It would help fix that blind spot for asteroids that come from the direction of the sun. It looks in the infrared because the asteroids are far more obvious in that part of the spectrum.
It would find nearly all potential impactors down to 40 meters diameter. And recently announced, that it should be able to spot them down to 20 meters diameter.
This would hardly make a dent on the cost of Trident, only 0.17% of its cost. I find this ironic that the UK finds the huge sums for Trident with no problem, yet no country world wide thinks that asteroid defense is enough of a priority to pay 0.17% of that price on it. ETs might be astonished at how much we spend on defending against each other and so little on protecting Earth from hazards from space.
See Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
Of course there are many other worthwhile things we can do with the funds we spend on nuclear weapons.
UNILATERAL DISARMAMENT DOES NOT MAKE THE UK DEPENDENT ON THE US - IT MAKES US STRONGER
It only makes the UK dependent on the US if you think that nuclear weapons make us safer. If you think they put us in more danger than a UK without bombs, and eventually a Europe that's nuclear free then it makes us less dependent on the US - saying to them "We don't need nuclear weapons".
Also, the UK's conventional forces will be stronger as a result.
Many military figures have said that Trident weakens the UK militarily because it's such a huge expense and takes attention and commitment away from our conventional military forces. That was one of the more telling points on the disarmament side in the Trident debate here.
I'm actually personally a pacifist, I wouldn't serve in the military myself (perhaps I might serve in an ambulance corps as many Quakers did in the last world war). However I don't say that everyone has to be pacifist. I wouldn't argue that the UK or any other country should give up its military, In the modern world, countries need armies. Even Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Thailand etc, all Buddhist countries, they have armies too. But I do think we should give up nuclear weapons.
I don't think nuclear weapons did anything to stop Russia in the Ukraine or did anything to help the situation in Bosnia or does anything to help the current situation in Syria. Rather see it the other way around that nuclear weapons make everyone tenser and make us unsafe if anything. It's enough for Russia and the US to have them, how does it help for UK and France to be involved as well? How does it help to say "look, we can bomb you too!"
If you think that M.A.D. makes sense and that we can never achieve nuclear disarmament that's about the only basis for having nuclear weapons in Europe.
If you think that M.A.D. is just MAD, as I do, and that the way forward is to first work towards more local nuclear free zones like the ones in Africa and Australia / New Zealand and Southern America - to have a nuclear free zone in Europe and eventually the whole world - with the southern hemisphere as an example, then unilateral disarmament is a step towards making the whole world safer.
The US say we have to keep our nuclear weapons in the UK, and those who support Trident in the UK say we have to do multilateral disarmament but they don't offer any path towards a nuclear free Europe. That’s what we need, I think Europe as a nuclear free zone is a safer Europe.
What they offer in the place of this is just a vague “some time in the future it will be useful for the UK to have the nuclear bomb to encourage multilateral disarmament”.
It’s a total myth, this idea that the nuclear bomb is the only thing that is stopping Russia from taking over Europe. If you think it through, is it at all credible that Russia would drop nuclear weapons on a Western / Central European declared nuclear free zone, or threaten to do so in order to take it over? Even during the cold war I don’t think that was a possible outcome, if we had declared a Western Europe nuclear free zone at the time.
Unilateral disarmament is saying "It's time to move on" it's sending a powerful message that we have to move quickly towards a nuclear free world.
THE END GOAL - TOTAL DISARMAMENT
The end aim of nuclear disarmament talks is to reach a situation of total disarmament world wide and that probably has to involve a multilateral approach.
However, meanwhile if we can reduce the number of states that have nuclear weapons, the fewer the safer the world becomes. If we can somehow raise the status and influence of those that disarm, that's a great help also. And the fewer states that are involved in multilateral disarmament the simpler the discussions become also.
WE MAY GET A FUTURE UK WITH A LEADER WHO HAS SAID HE WILL NEVER USE THE BOMB
Jeremy Corbyn is one of the few politicians who not only is in favour of unilateral nuclear disarmament for the UK, but s not at all afraid to say that he would never use our nuclear weapons as prime minister. Even if we can't achieve disarmament yet in the UK, I think we will be safer in the UK with a prime minister who says he will never use them and that this will make the world just a bit safer too. Hopefully also that will get people thinking it over and perhaps asking more questions, asking “What’s the point in them?”
If Jeremy Corbyn does win the next election here, and I think he has a decent chance myself, then that would be the first time the UK has had a prime minister who has said he or she won't use the nuclear bomb on ethical grounds. I think that's a good start even if he doesn't get the support he needs to go so far as to disarm and get rid of Trident (as it would be a free vote in his party).
When asked the same question, Theresa May said she would drop the bomb, making her the first to actually answer the question in the affirmative. (Previous prime ministers just refused to answer the question). Theresa May does not hesitate to say she would kill 100,000 with nuclear strike
So we'll have quite a polarity there in the next election, whenever it is, if it continues with Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn as the two leaders vying for our votes, one saying she would use the bomb and the other saying that he never would use it.
The SNP - Scottish Nationalist Party - is also in support of unilateral nuclear disarmament.
See their list of points here: Trident – what you need to know
finishing with
“5. Possession of nuclear weapons is the exception, not the rule
“It is the norm in the world today to be nuclear-free. Of all the countries in the world, just nine possessed nuclear weapons at the start of 2015.”
Here is Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish Nationalist Party (which got nearly a clean sweep of MPs in Scotland in the last electoin) putting this point in the anti-Trident rally in 2016
PLAYING A SMALL PART ON A LARGER STAGE
Also just to say that of course both the US and Russia have cut their nuclear arsenals hugely since the cold war. I’m not at all suggesting that it is all up to the UK. We’d just be playing our small (but I think significant) part on a larger stage.
ONCE YOU’VE GOT THE ICBMS WHAT DO YOU DO WITH THEM?
It seems such a great shame to me - so much technology and ingenuity put into designing and building the ICBMS and then after the decision to disarm, they just destroy them.
There’s the possibility of converting some of the tech to peaceful purposes however. Russia has turned some of its ICBMs into rockets to launch satellites - the Dnepr (rocket). ICBM based rockets have the advantage that they are designed with solid fuel, to be launched at any time on a moments notice, without need to fuel them first.
ICBM based missiles fitted with conventional explosives would be ideal for a last minute asteroid defense, especially against smaller asteroids or even against larger ones if they could be fitted with nuclear warheads. In a more peaceful world, that would probably be the only use of nuclear weapons, but it would be a bit tricky to reconcile with the outer space treaty and the nuclear test ban treaty, or to deploy them in such a way that there is no concern about them being used with hostile intent as weapons. There is also the problem that such asteroids are so rare that the system might be on stand by for the next several thousand years without needing to be used.
Russia have been promoting this idea recently. See Russia Wants to Turn Old Missiles Into an Asteroid Defense System
There’s also the idea of using ICBMs to deliver essential supplies to disaster zones quickly. Not that you’d build an ICBM if that was what your aim was. But now that we have so many of them, not able to do anything except deliver a nuclear weapon - they could be converted to humanitarian use for the rare situations where a disaster strikes and it is hard to get aid to the site of the disaster quickly even by helicopter - and perhaps an ICBM could do it much more quickly.
Perhaps the sea launched missiles for Trident could be used in these ways too, if we do go ahead and renew it and then find they are not useful for anything else.
See Converted Ballistic Missiles Could Launch Aid to Disaster Zones and Converted Ballistic Missiles could be sent to deliver aid to Disaster Zones
I’ve just published this on my Science20 blog here: Is Corbyn Right About The Bomb?- Op Ed
Best bet on what this is - Hubble may have spotted the water plume from Europa again. This is what it spotted last time.
Hubble Sees Evidence of Water Vapor at Jupiter Moon
Note that the photograph o...
(more)Best bet on what this is - Hubble may have spotted the water plume from Europa again. This is what it spotted last time.
Hubble Sees Evidence of Water Vapor at Jupiter Moon
Note that the photograph of Europa was not taken by Hubble. It just made the observation of the water plume - those large blue pixels. If it has taken new photos showing a water plume, they will be similar resolution to this.
There isn't much else Hubble can see at this distance. It’s not going to see details of the surface. Europa is just too far away for that. Some plume of some sort, and water is the most likely bet there as for last time.
This is potentially exciting news because the last time it spotted a plume of water, it was a once off observation and didn’t get repeated. So after the initial excitement many astronomers concluded it was probably just a very rare asteroid impact on Europa sending water up into space. Europa's Elusive Water Plume Paints Grim Picture For Life - Astrobiology Magazine
However if it has spotted it again, this makes asteroid impact a very unlikely explanation. If so this would show that it is probably a huge geyser.
This would be very exciting news for astrobiologists, because such a huge geyser would suggest the water is coming from deep below the surface, maybe even from the subsurface ocean 100 km below the surface.
This in turn is very interesting because this is one of our best chances in the solar system for finding extraterrestrial life and even possibly, complex multicellular life like Earth. And almost no chance of life transferred from Earth to Europa or vice versa over the entire history of the solar system. And if it is sent into space in a geyser, one of our spacecraft could sample it just by flying through it with no need for a lander (which is already a possibility for Enceladus).
This shows an actual photograph of the geysers of Enceladus:
They vent into space (as ice of course, once they hit the vacuum of space) and escape its gravity, feeding one of the minor rings of Saturn.
If the Hubble observations indicate a geyser, it’s a powerful geyser to send material all the way into space far enough away for Hubble to spot it, because the geyser would have to overcome the much greater gravity of Europa, of 1.315 m/s² similar to the Moon’s 1.62519 m/s² (it’s 81% of lunar gravity).
We also have a camera in orbit around Jupiter, Junocam. Juno doesn’t go very close to Europa, but it does occasionally get close enough so that it could image an active geyser as two pixels instead of less than one pixel. So if there is a visual element, such as dust, then maybe it can spot that too.
So then, there's a chance of a follow up observation with Junocam on Juno - to see if there is anything visual such as particles as for Enceladus - but probably not until March 2017 and then September / October 2017 as the best configuration for Juno to observe Europa - still at a distance but far closer than we can from Earth and a plume could span 2 pixels, enough for a chance of information about it if it is more than just water vapour.
This is what Emil Laksawalla says about using JunoCam to image Europa:
"JunoCam or ASC can only detect plumes if they contain fine particles. The Hubble discovery (if real) only shows the presence of water vapor. We can predict by analogy to Enceladus that water vapor plumes will also contain particles. However, it is important to remember that the Hubble discovery was of gas, not particles. If the putative Europa plumes are Enceladus-like and do contain particles, they would not be as tall as Enceladus', because of Europa's higher gravity. Scaling for Europa’s gravity gives a maximum plume height of under 140 kilometers. To detect plumes, we need at least two pixels, so the image spatial scale would need to be better than 70 kilometers, at a relatively high phase angle where the particles would forward-scatter light to JunoCam and ASC.
"To achieve resolutions better than 70 kilometers per pixel, UVS needs to be within 40,000 kilometers of Europa; JunoCam, 100,000 kilometers; and ASC, 170,000 kilometers. For the cameras, given the low expected height of the plumes, there is not much flexibility.
"There are just four orbits that have Europa flybys that are closer than 300,000 km. Juno reaches the best available geometry in September 2017 as the rotation of the line of apsides brings Juno’s orbit close to Europa’s orbit:
"2017-03-08 253,118 km
2017-09-19 264,043 km
2017-10-03 92,267 km
2017-10-17 204,654 km"
I think it is daft to ban them from the ISS myself. It’s a US policy. The ESA want to work with China with their lunar village. I see space as like Antarctic exploration and like the Olympics. The ...
(more)I think it is daft to ban them from the ISS myself. It’s a US policy. The ESA want to work with China with their lunar village. I see space as like Antarctic exploration and like the Olympics. The astronauts and space engineers are not responsible for the politics of their country - no more so than US astronauts are responsible for water boarding, electronic snooping, and unmanned drone strikes killing innocent civilians in Pakistan.
In the UK where I live, I was not at all in favour of either the renewal of Trident, or our country’s decision to take part in the war in Iraq. Yet that doesn’t subtract at all from my pride in our accomplishments with the Titan Huygyens probe and the Philae lander and other missions as part of the European Space Agency or so close to success with the Beagle lander on Mars, or have any affect at all on my support and interest in Tim Peake’s spaceflight to the ISS.
As in the field of sports with the Olympics, this is an opportunity for ordinary people - or sometimes extraordinary people, in many different countries and political systems to work together, or compete together and find mutual interests and admiration on a personal level.
The Chinese technology is at an early stage, nowhere near Apollo capabilities. But it is capable of sending astronauts into space and they have launched ten astronauts to orbit so far, in five missions, with not a single fatality or serious incident. That’s a good start. They have done space walks and docking maneuvers. They are also the only ones able to send an astronaut in space currently apart from Russia. And they have sent the first rover to the lunar surface since the Apollo era. We should see many more of those next year from non government companies and organizations in many countries world wide for the Lunar X prize, but still, China will remain the first to send a rover to the Moon in this century and indeed for several decades.
I think that what the Chinese have done is impressive. And I think we need to work together with them just as we do with the Olympics. Which doesn’t mean at all that we approve of the various human rights violations. In the same way you can accept and admire the US spaceflight accomplishments and astronauts, without any need to feel that this means you approve of all aspects of US foreign or domestic policy.
I think we need to keep in mind that Chinese citizens are people like us. And they are not responsible for all the things their governments do, any more than we are responsible for what our governments do and some of them may indeed have got into trouble trying to protest about such things.
I think it’s also especially important in space that we find a way forward within the spirit of the Outer Space Treaty, of mutual exploration of space for the benefit of all humanity. Which can involve competition just as for the Olympics and Antarctic research. Space exploration especially is a field where we need all the help we can get. The ESA village idea has astronauts from many different space agencies close together where they can support each other and make use of shared resources such as 3D printers, and solar power arrays, as well as provide additional medical help and other forms of on the spot expertise in a difficult situation or an emergency. I think this is surely the way to go rather than separate bases spread out over the surface of the Moon. As with the ISS this should lead to mutual respect and tolerance and awareness and friendship in space between the astronauts which can to some extent transcend the many political divisions on Earth as they look at the distant Earth and see it tiny in the vastness of space and with no political borders visible from space - at least, certainly not from the Moon.
See also my Case For Moon First
No, Mars never changes direction. It’s just a line of sight thing. Earth orbits the sun faster than Mars does. So every year, Earth catches up with Mars in its slow orbit around the sun (two years ...
(more)No, Mars never changes direction. It’s just a line of sight thing. Earth orbits the sun faster than Mars does. So every year, Earth catches up with Mars in its slow orbit around the sun (two years for each year of Earth) and from our point of view it goes backwards relative to the distant stars. Like this:
Retrograde Motion (image by Brian Brondel) - this happens to either side of opposition - when the planet is the opposite side of the Earth from the Sun in the sky and visible all night.
This is what it looks like with the planet’s shown much larger than their actual size - video repeats several times
See this animation, using actual photographs of Mars and Saturn by Tunc Tezel
See also this wonderful composite photograph of the current retrograde motion of Mars on APOD APOD: 2016 September 15 which shows the final result at the end of the animation.
The same is true for all the other planets in the outer solar system: Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, Pluto,and anything else with an orbital period of more than one year including long period comets and asteroids.
Historically, this retograde motion puzzled ancient astronomers, as they thought the planets orbited Earth, and they developed systems of circles on top of circles to explain the planet’s motion. The modern understanding of this emerged slowly in the sixteenth through to the seventeenth century with the work of Copernicus, Kepler and Newton amongst others.
See also:
They have been considered. Well - mainly balloons, so they just move with the atmosphere, but airships also for Venus. And a couple of balloons have actually flown already on Venus, the two Vega program probes
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They have been considered. Well - mainly balloons, so they just move with the atmosphere, but airships also for Venus. And a couple of balloons have actually flown already on Venus, the two Vega program probes
Vega balloon probe, Udvar-Hazy Center of the Smithsonian Institution. Photo Geoffrey A. Landis.
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This artist's impression shows the European Venus Explorer - a proposed ESA mission to Venus (submitted but not approved). The Russian Vega probes in 1985 would have looked similar.
The Russians had ideas for cloud colonies in the Venus upper atmosphere in the early 1970s:
Geoffrey Landis is a proponent of setting up these colonies. The fast winds in the Venus upper atmosphere are no problem for floating balloons or airships that move with them, indeed they help, they mean you have a “day” of only four Earth days. Will We Build Colonies That Float Over Venus Like Buckminster Fuller's "Cloud Nine"?
Then there’s also the idea of the Havoc Mission, a study from NASA
HAVOC mission. Proposal to send robotic missions to Venus followed by airships as shown. At the same "above the cloud tops" level as the cloud colonies.
In the case of Mars, the atmosphere is a near vacuum, but still, light gases such as hydrogen, helium provide buoyancy, no matter how thin the air is - just means you need a larger balloon for the same mass of hydrogen or helium, indeed for the same payload too, which is why weather balloons start off only partially inflated and get larger and larger as they go up into the upper atmosphere.
The CO2 there is denser than our atmosphere so the balloons on Mars provide more lift than you’d get if you went to a height in Earth’s atmosphere with similar pressure.
The Mars storms are not a hazard because though the winds are fast, in the thin atmosphere, there’s not much momentum - it’s similar to a gentle breeze on Earth that can just barely move an autumn leaf. An autumn leaf on Mars would perhaps be moved a bit, anything heavier and reasonably dense won’t be. The dust moves around in the wind because it is as fine as cigarette dust.
This is project Archimedes from the German Mars society originally planned for 2009 but never flown
This is the idea of the Solar Montgolfiere Balloons for Mars
A montgolfier balloon is open underneath so relies on heating to stay aloft.
This is about the idea of a Mars balloon considered by NASA
And just to mention as well, there’s the idea of orbital airships as well, from JP Aerospace.
DIRIGIBLES IN SATURN’S ATMOSPHERE
Also you can use airships even in gas giants, for instance for exploring Saturn’s atmosphere. You might think “how is that possible as what can float in an atmosphere of hydrogen and helium?” Well hot hydrogen and helium can do the trick. It’s just like a hot air balloon on Earth. So yes you could have dirigibles in the Saturn atmosphere for instance. Jupiter too. I’ve heard it talked about for Saturn in the context of rather far out ideas of colonizing Saturn with floating cities in its atmosphere, while Jupiter’s gravity is a bit too high for that to be comfortable. But for robotic spacecraft both would be possible in theory. Don’t know of any worked out missions for either though. Just discussions.
AIRSHIPS TO ORBIT
A balloon filled with hydrogen or helium could rise almost indefinitely - if the skin is light enough, even close to the boundaries of low Earth orbit. This is a very low cost method because no fuel needs to be expended to do the lifting itself.
JP Aerospace plan to make airships that would rise to orbital platforms at 200,000 feet - so that's 60 km, in the mesosphere - above the stratosphere, near vacuum conditions.
They have the current altitude record for an airship for an unmanned but manoeuvrable airship of 95,085 feet, or 29 km
JP Aerospace Airship Flies to the Edge of Space, Smashing the Existing World Altitude Record
The maximum height achieved with any ground launched balloon so far is 56 km with a NASA experiment Bu60-1
This is the highest flying balloon ever at 56 km, on the edge of space
ISAS | BALLOONS:Research on Balloons to Float Over 50km Altitude / Special Feature
JP Aerospace plan to build airships that set off at a level higher than the highest flying balloon ever - huge airships made of such light materials that they couldn't be inflated at ground level. They would be constructed in the “dark sky” platform high up in the atmosphere, which would also be a tourist destination in its own right.
These would be truly orbital airships - slowly accelerating to Mach 20 and greater.
When they set off from their base station at 200,000 feet (60 kms), they would be just floating. It's almost a vacuum inside the ship, yet still, because it is filled with hydrogen or helium, contained by the skin, then the lighter atoms of hydrogen or helium will float on the denser almost vacuum of oxygen / nitrogen outside it. LEO starts at around 160 km Low Earth orbit
They would accelerate to orbit slowly over several days, by using ion thrusters. The V shape gives it aerodynamic lift. It has several phases, subsonic, then they break the sound barrier, and then as they get faster they reach hypersonic speeds, which means that it’s traveling so fast that the air gets pushed back along the side of the airship.
First they use a combination of lift and velocity - and eventually travel at orbital velocity at levels too high to get noticeable lift.
This idea of Mach 20+ airships accelerating to reach orbital velocity may seem absurd at first, it did to me when I first read it. But the more you think about it, the more it begins to make sense. We launched several balloons to LEO in the Echo program, so there is no problem with balloons once they reach LEO. The problem is the transition between high altitude and LEO. For that, we want to find out about suborbital balloon flights. Those are rare.
An early experiment sent one of these balloons into a sub orbital hop which it survived for most of the hop and disintegrated eventually. When it did explode, this was mainly because they made a mistake and left too much gas in it. That isn't much by way of experimental data, as this seems to be the only example of a suborbital balloon flight to date. Also that's with a small balloon not the huge kilometer scale airships of JP Aerospace.
Still, what data there is, is reasonably promising that the high speeds of the balloons won't be a problem so long as they are well above most of the atmosphere in close to LEO vacuum conditions by the time they approach orbital velocities. At any rate, JP Aerospace don't consider this to be their main challenge. You can hear John Powell, the man himself talk about it in a recent Spaceshow talk, and decide for yourself. They have a very interesting philosophy also, it's a company that does its development in the slow lane. They've been working towards this for decades and finance their development by the discoveries they make along the way.
If this works out, then we’d have a way to go by airship to orbit from Earth, then to the Venus upper cloud decks, and they would also be able to land on Mars too.
Find out more here: Guest: John Powell. Topics: Updates on JP Aerospace and the Airship To Orbit program.
So there’s actually a fair bit of interest in this idea which is certainly a good one, but we have only sent two balloons to another planet so far, the two Russian ones to Venus.
There’s a strong tendency for space agencies to continue to use tried and tested methods, not surprising when each mission costs hundreds of millions of dollars, or more. Despite many ideas for balloons, gliders, hopping robots, and so on, most of the missions have followed the more conventional idea of a wheeled rover. They haven’t even explored “whegs” yet - wheels with legs which are better for traversing rough terrain.
Perhaps once costs to launch to Venus or Mars are reduced, and also with the possibility of miniaturized spacecraft, interplanetary cubesats, and such like, maybe we’ll see missions like this, proposed so many times, actually sent to the other planets?
And JP Aerospace are moving slowly but steadily towards their goal of an orbital airship, who knows, maybe some day they will achieve their goal and that would be a gamechanger if they did.
See their blog. JP Aerospace Blog
And they have just released a new book
See also
Actually I’ve written a chapter in my Case for Moon First about just this. It’s not easy to find much detail for Mars. There’s just the eight page section “Interplanetary Commerce” in Robert Zubrin...
(more)Actually I’ve written a chapter in my Case for Moon First about just this. It’s not easy to find much detail for Mars. There’s just the eight page section “Interplanetary Commerce” in Robert Zubrin’s “The Case for Mars”, while books on Lunar settlement and colonization devote many chapters to the topic and there are many published papers also on the commercial value of the Moon.
According to Elon Musk, there is only one way to make a Mars colony profitable, and that’s through licensing of intellectual property - inventions and other intellectual creations. This idea originates with Robert Zubrin who also suggested that a Mars colony could make a profit by selling deuterium. Mars colonization enthusiasts have suggested various other ways a colony might be made profitable, in online forums.
I’ve said in other Quora answers that we should continue with planetary protection of Mars for a fair bit longer . We shouldn’t just drop it because we want to send humans there. After all, if there is native indigenous microbial life on the planet, that would be one of the biggest discoveries in biology ever, especially if based on a different biochemistry. It might also be vulnerable to Earth life. Some early form of life could be especially vulnerable, such as the RNA based cells of the RNA world hypothesis, potentially tiny because they don’t use either DNA or proteins. For more on this see my One example of what we might find on Mars…
We shouldn’t prioritize sending humans to Mars, it seems to me, if there is any chance that we can destroy the possibility of such a major discovery in biology by introducing Earth microbes. There are many other reasons as well to be cautious about introducing Earth life until we know what it will do to the planet. We need to know it is beneficial or harmful to whatever is there, and indeed to our future selves and descendants. The problem is that (unlike the Moon, say), it is a single interconnected system with the Martian dust storms able to spread microbial spores throughout the planet. We are nowhere near the level of understanding needed to make such a decision about an entire planet, at present, in my view.
But this is relevant whether or not we send humans to the Mars surface. If there is anything of great commercial value on Mars then either
Elon Musk has said clearly, several times that he doesn't think there will be anything material from Mars that would be worth transporting back to Earth.
"I don't think it's going to be economical to mine things on Mars and then transport them back to Earth because the transport costs would overwhelm the value of whatever you mined, but there will likely be a lot of mining on Mars that's useful for a Mars base, but it's unlikely to be transferred back to Earth. I think the economic exchange between a Mars base and Earth would be mostly in the form of intellectual property"
Elon Musk interview on the future of energy and transport - and more quotes like this from him.
Robert Zubrin covers this in more detail:
"Another alternative is that Mars could pay for itself by transporting back ideas. Just as the labor shortage prevalent in colonial and 19th century America drove the creation of Yankee Ingenuity's flood of inventions, so the conditions of extreme labor shortage combined with a technological culture and the unacceptability of impractical legislative constraints against innovation will tend to drive Martian ingenuity to produce wave after wave of invention in energy production, automation and robotics, biotechnology, and other areas. These inventions, licensed on Earth, could finance Mars even as they revolutionize and advance terrestrial living standards as forcefully as 19th Century American invention changed Europe and ultimately the rest of the world as well."
Elon Musk is skeptical about space mining generally thinking it probably won't be possible to export from the asteroids - "I'm not convinced there's a case for taking something, say, platinum, that is found in an asteroid and bringing it back to Earth." Of course many think that this will be possible. Myself I just don't know, I've heard the arguments on both sides and remain on the fence here.
Anyway Elon Musk doesn't go into any more detail about the case for or against material exports. Robert Zubrin however has discussed this in a paper "The Economic Viability of Mars Colonization " in the Journal of the British Interplanetary Society from 1995, and later on in the Interplanetary Commerce section of Case for Mars. He first outlines the need for exports to make a Mars colony viable:
"A frequent objection raised against scenarios for the human settlement and terraforming of Mars is that while such projects may be technologically feasible, there is no possible way that they can be paid for. On the surface, the arguments given supporting this position appear to many to be cogent, in that Mars is distant, difficult to access, possesses a hostile environment and has no apparent resources of economic value to export. These arguments appear to be ironclad, yet it must be pointed out that they were also presented in the past as convincing reasons for the utter impracticality of the European settlement of North America and Australia."
..."While the Exploration and Base building phases can and probably must be carried out on the basis of outright government funding, during the Settlement phase economics comes to the fore. That is, while a Mars base of even a few hundred people can potentially be supported out of pocket by governmental expenditures, a Martian society of hundreds of thousands clearly cannot be. To be viable, a real Martian civilization must be either completely autarchic (very unlikely until the far future) or be able to produce some kind of export that allows it to pay for the imports it requires."
..."Mars is the best target for colonization in the solar system because it has by far the greatest potential for self-sufficiency. Nevertheless, even with optimistic extrapolation of robotic manufacturing techniques, Mars will not have the division of labor required to make it fully self-sufficient until its population numbers in the millions. It will thus for a long time be necessary, and forever desirable, for Mars to be able to pay for import of specialized manufactured goods from Earth. These goods can be fairly limited in mass, as only small portions (by weight) of even very high-tech goods are actually complex. Nevertheless, these smaller sophisticated items will have to be paid for, and their cost will be greatly increased by the high costs of Earth-launch and interplanetary transport. What can Mars possibly export back to Earth in return?"
(emphasis mine)
So according to his ideas, the Mars colony is supported on the basis of outright government funding for the early stages of exploration and base building. He thinks that in these early stages you need something over and above ISRU (In Situ Resource Uitilization) for a commercial case unless the base is autarchic - a word which usually refers to individual liberty and governing oneself - but in this context I think he must mean, producing everything it needs, independent of Earth.
So it is rather similar to Elon Musk's idea except that in Elon Musk’s vision, the settlement is supported by private funding from Earth in the early stages rather than government funding.
Zubrin then discusses the possibility of ores on Mars, and we'll come back to this later in this section:
..."Mars may have concentrated mineral ores, with much greater concentrations of ores of precious metals readily available than is currently the case on Earth due to the fact that the terrestrial ores have been heavily scavenged by humans for the past 5000 years. It has been shown that if concentrated supplies of metals of equal or greater value than silver (i.e. silver, germanium, hafnium, lanthanum, cerium, rhenium, samarium, gallium, gadolinium, gold, palladium, iridium, rubidium, platinum, rhodium, europium, etc.) were available on Mars, they could potentially be transported back to Earth at high profit by using reusable Mars-surface based single stage to orbit vehicles to deliver the cargoes to Mars orbit, and then transporting them back to Earth using either cheap expendable chemical stages manufactured on Mars or reusable cycling solar sail powered interplanetary spacecraft. The existence of such Martian precious metal ores, however, is still hypothetical."
In his section on Interplanetary Commerce in “Case for Mars” page 239 and following he also suggests deuterium as an export. I'll look at that below, between the section on geological products and the section on fuel exports.
He then goes on to suggest that Mars may play a crucial role for supply of ores and other exports to the asteroid belt once we have humans living there. He suggests Phobos and Deimos may also be valuable as a staging post on the way to the asteroid belt. Which may be true, but that's a rather later stage. I'm interested here in the earlier stages before we have large numbers of humans in the asteroid belt.
Do correct me if anyone knows of any other papers with detailed discussions of possible exports from Mars. That's all I've been able to find so far.
However it is discussed a fair bit online in places like Reddit, and the various Mars forums and spaceflight forums, and enthusiasts have suggested many other ways that they think a Mars colony could become profitable. So what I present here is based on that, as well as some thoughts of my own.
So, let's look at this a bit more closely, is there anything physical that could be worth exporting, (apart from the science value of the search for life and the information returned). Also is there anything worth exporting at a reasonably early stage such as the first few decades of a human exploration of Mars either on the surface or telerobotically from orbit?
However, the price would go down quickly as we get more samples from Mars of the order of tons of material. You'd only return as much as was needed for the scientific research you need to do due to the high price of return of material from Mars.
Also, individuals might want to buy Mars rocks at high prices, but only for as long as they are rare. This would be like supporting a lunar mission by returning and selling Moon rocks. The first few rocks could be valuable to collectors, and if they were issued with a certificate of authenticity as the first rocks to be returned from Mars or the Moon maybe the first few rocks would retain their value. But longer term, how many people would want to buy into something of continually reducing value?
You'd think they must be rare or we would have spotted them on the surface. There's no sign at all of outcrops of oil shale. But on the other hand - cosmic radiation is very damaging. Would there be anything left of a surface oil shale deposit after billions of years?
It's an exponential process so you get very rapid reductions. Every 650 million years you get a 1000 fold reduction in the concentrations of small organic molecules such as amino acids on the surface because of cosmic radiation. So that's a million fold reduction every 1.3 billion years.
Cosmic radiation has little effect over time periods of years, decades, centuries or millennia. But over time periods of hundreds of millions of years the effects are huge. After 1.3 billion years, a thousand tons of amino acids gets reduced to a kilogram, with the rest converted mainly to gases like carbon dioxide, water vapour, methane and ammonia. After 2.6 billion years it's down to a microgram (millionth of a gram) and after 3.9 billion years you are down to less than a picogram (a millionth of a microgram) of your original thousand tons deposit.
So, I don't think absence of these deposits on the surface, at least ones easy to see from satellites, really shows that they don't exist below the surface. There could be millions of tons of organics from past life ten meters below the surface, and our rovers so far would probably not spot a thing. The organics of course also have to be there in the first place (surely likely to be patchy, in some places more than in others) and buried quickly - if it took several hundred million years to bury them, much of the organics would be gone also.
Oil itself is surely not worth the trouble of mining to return to Earth. But if there was some unique biological product on Mars that we don't have on Earth - which you could mine to find there, maybe that could be worth returning to Earth.
Mars could potentially be competitive with Earth for export of food for use on spacecraft and other space colonies due to the much lower launch cost, provided that the costs of growing the crops on Mars are also comparable to Earth's (quite a big if in the early stages).
But what about greenhouses in space? It would also have to compete with those. This would require it to be much easier to build a greenhouse on the surface than in space. Since it's a near vacuum and also has such huge diurnal swings in temperature, I'm not sure that it has much by way of advantages over, say, Phobos or Deimos, or indeed the Moon which has much less delta v than Mars. Even for export to Mars orbit, it could be as economical or more so to export from the Moon for foodstuffs that can keep for months long transport journeys. See section above: Greenhouse construction - comparison of the Moon and Mars
It could be more economical to export from Mars to Mars orbit rather than from the Moon perhaps for food that can spoil quickly, though this is not a net export from the Mars system. Another thought, if the natural Mars gravity was an advantage, and for some reason, easier to use than artificial gravity, perhaps it could be worthwhile.
It could also be worth doing if conditions on Mars let you produce unusual food or decorative plants more easily. As an example, it could be worth doing, if you can grow rare flowers on Mars that are very expensive to grow elsewhere, or similarly unusual and tasty rare new food stuffs that grow best on Mars for some reason, perhaps genetically designed for Mars conditions. This is related to the next topic:
Continuing to
Products you could export could include
For this to work there must be some reason they can't be grown on Earth
This case might also be another reason to be really careful not to contaminate Mars with Earth life, so that you can continue to grow the native Mars life there without interference from Earth life to make unique products that can only be produced easily from the native Mars life.
However, even if you can't grow the products safely on Earth, at some point you'd have the capability to grow them in Stanford Torus type habitats, biologically isolated from Earth and designed to mimic Mars conditions. Still, by the time that's feasible, export costs from Mars could go down at the same time that prices of such habitats go down, so keeping Mars competitive with them.
This does seem a potential early export that may continue to be commercially viable for quite some time, maybe even indefinitely. But it depends entirely on what we find as we search for life on Mars and also on how easy or safe it is to grow them on Earth, the Moon or elsewhere.
Raw opal found in Andamooka South Australia - photo credit CR Peters
Mars is different from asteroids or the Moon here, so it could have unique deposits. It's the only place we know of with deposits formed in ancient seas billions of years ago and its past and present climate is unique too. It might have unique minerals of decorative value.
What about:
Remember, that
So, in short, it has to be competitive with platinum, gold etc. mined elsewhere in the solar system, and you have to bear in mind that the prices you can get from Earth will surely go down, or else your exports are limited to keep the prices artificially high. On the other hand if the material you are mining is very valuable, and launch costs are low, perhaps the margin due to cost of export from Mars doesn't make such a big difference. E.g. suppose the launch costs a few hundred million dollars but you are returning tons of material, worth billions of dollars, perhaps it doesn't matter so much that a few percent of your product's price is due to transport. Maybe other elements of the price such as mining are somewhat less expensive than they are for asteroids?
However for this to work, there has to be a reason why other elements of the cost of mining are low. Asteroids and the Moon have the advantages of:
It seems unlikely that the thin Mars atmosphere would help much with mining operations. Would the Mars gravity help, or be a hindrance? And the large temperature swings from day to night, could they help in any way to make it easier to mine materials?
Just to make this clear, this is not Elon Musk's idea. As we saw, he thinks the colony would pay for itself in the early stages mainly through sale of intellectual property rights to the Earth. And Robert Zubrin, as we saw, thinks it will be paid for in early stages through government funding. But it's a topic that gets discussed in the online forums. So let's have a look at it.
If you get colonists who pay in advance for their flight out to Mars - and they use the Mars Colonial Transporter - a 100 people at a time, if SpaceX succeed in producing that spaceship - then the spacecraft has to come back to Earth after every run to transport colonists to Mars, and would be able to take exports with it, which is essentially free transport. So there would be a multiplier effect there of the original passage fee.
However unless the products are already worth returning for one of the other reasons, then at most they could get back their original passage fee by selling the material. Otherwise you'd have a case for sending empty colonial transporter ships to Mars just to return the products.
So, you'd get exports, yes, for as long as the colony continues to expand rapidly. However, that's not a business case in the long term, as it's not going to be sustainable, as a way of supporting a colony there. Even if they can get their money for the flight back from the goods returned from Mars, they then have to support themselves on Mars indefinitely, not just pay for the flight out. And with increasing numbers of colonists on Mars, you'd need exponentially increasing numbers of colonists going out there to support them with the passage fees. If you get increasing numbers of spaceships sent there to send them their supplies, again you need to pay for that somehow.
So, I don't think relying on the nearly empty transporter as it returns to Earth as a way to support the colony is likely to work long term. It works only as long as you have exponentially increasing numbers of colonists going to Mars and nobody coming back or few people coming back.
After the initial romance of being “the first settlers on Mars” is over, would there be such huge demand to retire to Mars with not so much by way of home comforts as Earth and far away from their friends, relatives and children?
It could work perhaps if many of them are near the end of their life, and don’t live long after they reach Mars (just a few years), but it assumes a large market for this. Also many sixty year olds would survive for a couple of decades or more, and some may survive up to 40 years to become centenarians, probably more so in the future, meaning that their initial investment in the project would have to support them possibly for decades just as for the younger folk.
Also, what about medical care and nursing for the higher prevalence of medical conditions in older people? What about care for the ones who develop Alzheimers on Mars? Also, older people, or retirees (in their eighties and nineties) and the ones with fewer years remaining in their lifespan due to health issues would be the ones on average less able to do the many tasks needed to keep the colony running than younger folk.
If it’s a normal mix of old people with young people migrating to Mars, I can’t see the retirees migrating from Earth paying for the requirements of all the younger people for the rest of their life. In that case it becomes again a case of exponentially increasing immigrants needed to pay for it and exponential growth can’t continue for long.
This is one of the main points in the International Commerce section in Case for Mars, and is also often mentioned in discussions, so I should go into it in some detail.
So first, let's look at the data on deuterium abundances in our solar system. Curiosity measured a deuterium to hydrogen ratio five times greater on Mars than in the Earth oceans, probably due to the loss of hydrogen from the upper atmosphere of Mars over billions of years. See Heavy hydrogen excess hints at Martian vapour loss. This is for near surface ice. The Mars meteorite studies also suggest another reservoir of water below the surface with a lower ratio of two to three times that for Earth’s oceans which probably comes from an earlier phase of Mars history. Meteoritic evidence for a previously unrecognized hydrogen reservoir on Mars.
Deuterium occurs naturally on Earth in water as 1 in 6,400 hydrogen atoms or 1 part in 3,200 by weight. On Mars it is one deuterium for every 1,284 hydrogens. Though Mars has a higher deuterium to hydrogen ratio than Earth, it’s not the most abundant source of it in the solar system. Rather, Earth’s abundance is if anything rather low, compared with many sources although high compared to the concentrations in the Sun and Jupiter and hydrogen from the solar wind. The solar wind hydrogen trapped in the lunar regolith also has a very low deuterium concentration.
Venus has the highest deuterium / hydrogen ratio recorded in our solar system of 120 times Earth’s and so 24 times that on Mars in its atmosphere. Implications of the high DH ratio for the sources of water in Venus' atmosphere.
Most meteorites that hit Earth have close to terrestrial abundances of deuterium but some have very high levels. This meteorite has 13 times the abundance of Earth’s oceans, so more than twice the abundance for Mars (many types of rock contain hydrogen and so you can measure their deuterium concentrations, this is a chondrite meteorite).
Antarctic Meteorite Lab Photo of Sample WSG 95300 - details about it here - the deuterium measurements for this meteorite are here: Deuterium enrichments in chondritic macromolecular material—Implications for the origin and evolution of organics, water and asteroids
(see table 2, the δD there is measured in parts per thousand relative to terrestrial abundances, so for instance δD +1000 for double terrestrial values)
Jupiter family comets have higher deuterium abundances than Eart,h perhaps around three times terrestrial abundances as for Comet 67p from the Rosetta mission, though there is some question here about whether comet outgassing may somehow concentrate the deuterium and lead to over estimates of the abundances.
So is Mars the best extraterrestrial source for deuterium? And is it worth importing from space at all?
Currently the main use of deuterium is as a moderator in a nuclear reactor. You have the choice of enriching the uranium, and using ordinary water, which is the method used currently in many reactors, or of using ordinary unenriched uranium and heavy water, as is used in heavy water reactors such as the ones developed by India. That works because heavy water slows down neutrons without capturing them so permitting a chain reaction with a lower concentration of radioactive Uranium than light water which captures many of the neutrons.
However his quoted price of $10,000 per kilogram for deuterium seems a bit high. You can get 99.96% pure deuterium oxide for $1,000 per kg from Cambridge Isotopes. (Deuterium Oxide 100%) You can get 99% pure deuterium oxide for $721 per kg (Deuterium oxide 99%) Unless he’s referring to the price for pure deuterium separated from the oxygen?
99% pure deuterium oxide is sufficiently pure for the production of plutonium from uranium. Because of this application, the technology to produce heavy water is tightly regulated and the deuterium produced in a plant is tracked carefully.. (For an example of how this is done, see "Selection of a safeguards approach for the Arroyito heavy water production plant" )
He says that the price of deuterium would go up if we develop deuterium / tritium fusion. I don’t really see that, since the main cost comes from extraction and there is no shortage of water to extract it from. Would a higher demand not just lead to us building more deuterium extraction plants, and a search for methods to reduce the costs using larger scale production facilities, for economies of scale, and other methods of generating it, which would reduce the price rather than increase it?
And what if some other form of fusion power turns out to be more efficient or have advantages over deuterium / tritium fusion? It’s a bit tricky arguing based on a technology we don’t have yet, and there are many possible ways of generating fusion power being explored at present.
He says deuterium would be a natural byproduct of electrolysis of water sourced on Mars, which would produce around one kilogram of deuterium for every six tonnes of water electrolysed on Mars. However to do this then you have to add a deuterium / hydrogen separation stage to the hydrogen production plant. How easy is that? He doesn’t go into details of how it would work.
That 5 times enhancement over the deuterium in Earth’s oceans is still a long way from 100% concentration. It’s normally extracted by using many stages, and each time the amount of deuterium is increased. With only one atom in 1,284 consisting of deuterium you would still need to concentrate it many times over to reach 99% concentrations. For instance water electrolysis, one of the most effective methods of concentrating it, would increase the deuterium concentration 5 to 10 times each time it is used. The 5 times higher concentration on Mars would just save one stage of water electrolysis of many that would be needed. Though in practice electrolysis has such high energy costs it is best used only once for a final stage, for water that is already 50% D2O. The Argentinian plant uses methane as a feedstock because the hydrogen can be dissociated thermally from methane, much more easily than from water. Similarly for other techniques. There are many methods used to extract deuterium. Each of them requires many stages of concentration and I don’t see how an enhancement of 5 times in the feedstock would make a significant difference here.
So that then leads to the practicality of building and operating an extraction plant on Mars and providing the high power levels needed to extract the deuterium (the main reason for its high cost). If it needs vast amounts of electricity to do the separation, it’s not going to be worth doing I think. Also heavy water plants on Earth are large scale and massive structures. This is the heavy water plant in Argentina:
Heavy water plant near Arroyito, photograph by Frandres This plant produces most of the world’s deuterium, at a rate of 200 tons per year, and is powered by a nearby hydroelectric power station at Arroyito dam with a power output of 128 MW. (I'm not sure how much of that power output is used for the plant, do say if any of you know).
The equipment for extracting deuterium weighs 27,000 tons including the support structures and includes 250 heat exchangers, 240 pressure vessels, 90 gas compressors 13 reactors and 30 distillation columns. (Statistics from Arroyito Heavy Water Production Plant, Argentina)
Would the five times higher concentration of deuterium lead to more than a minor saving in the costs of the plant? And how would that offset all the difficulties of setting up and operating the plant with near vacuum conditions outside it, as well as transport costs for equipment that can’t be built on Mars?
Of course Mars is different in many ways and though most of them seem to be disadvantages for operating such a planet, could any of them be advantages, such major advantages that it makes it worthwhile to build and operate it on Mars? For instance, could the near vacuum of its atmosphere be made an advantage somehow? (E.g. for distillation).
On the face of it, there doesn’t seem to be a compelling commercial case for this. If there is, it needs to be spelt out in more detail.
Most of the details here come from Heavy Water: A Manufacturers’ Guide for the Hydrogen Century. Future Trends in Heavy Water Production (1983) - has details of the Argentina plant, and Heavy Water Production.
Some of the internet discussions talk about this as a business case. The main issue I see with supplying fuel from the Mars surface is, would it compete with fuel generated on Deimos or indeed on the Moon for astronauts in orbit around Mars. Also, is methane valuable enough as a fuel in space, to make it worthwhile to export hydrogen to the Mars surface to convert into methane and return to orbit, or to split the hydrogen from water on Mars and use it to make methane?
That leads to the next idea:
This is the premise of the Deimos Water Company outlined by David Kuck. The delta v back to Earth is much less than from the Mars surface, and you can produce your own fuel for the journey. It would have to compete with volatiles on the Moon if those exist and are easy to mine. I think it's hard to judge this at present as we don't know what the volatiles are like on the Moon. We know they exist but don't know how abundant they are locally, or how easy or hard they are to extract. And so far we don't yet know for sure if there are any volatiles on Deimos, although spectroscopically it resembles a type of asteroid that often has them.
Supposing Deimos and the Moon have volatiles equally easy to extract, then the Deimos volatiles would still be favourable for use on Deimos and Phobos and for export to the Mars surface. They would also be favourable for delivery to Mars orbits such as Mars capture orbit at a delta v of 0.57 km / sec from Deimos. So, it would make a lot of sense for a base on Deimos to supply fuel to the Mars system. But that's not a commercial case for colonization. As Zubrin says - you need something over and above ISRU for a commercial case for exports you sell to pay for the things you can't produce there.
So we need to look into whether this can be competitive with the Moon for supply to the Earth Moon system. For the Moon to LEO the delta v is 5.7 km / second, and a bit more if supplied from polar regions - while it's 4.87 km / sec for Deimos to LEO which would seem to favour Deimos. However that does not take account of Hoyt's cislunar tether transport which could make the delta v for supply from the Moon to LEO almost zero.
So, in summary, there do seem to be a number of potential exports from Mars even at quite an early stage, although this is mainly based on internet discussions with not much actually published on the topic in peer reviewed journals. But they all depend on future discoveries so we won't know if this is possible until we know more about Mars. A few of the potential exports, involving exobiology, might require us to keep Earth microbes out of Mars.
There may also be exports from Deimos, but that depends on how easy it is to extract the volatiles, and if the lunar volatiles are as easy to extract as the ones from Deimos, then it might be hard to put a business case for export from Deimos to the Earth / Moon system, though it may be very useful for volatiles for spacecraft in orbit around Mars, on its moons or on its surface. As for exports to the asteroid belt, the chances are that they will find a way to mine their own volatiles out there, so it seems an unlikely case to me for the special case of volatiles.
Here I'm using the delta v figures from Hop David's cartoon delta v map.
Here are some of the online discussions I looked at. Of course they are not always 100% accurate. This is just enthusiasts discussing the topic, some more knowledgeable than others, and it may also contain a fair bit of nonsense in some of the discussions, so you have to filter and look up details to see if what they say is correct. Anyway if you are interested in doing that, see for instance:
Wikipedia also has a page on Space Trade, though there isn't much in it yet. Then there's Robert Zubrin's paper, already mentioned, and the Interplanetary Commerce section of Case for Mars.
That's about it, do let me know if you have more sources!
WOULD A SPACE COLONY SURVIVE WITH ONLY EXPORTS OF INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY TO PAY FOR IMPORTS?
As we saw, Elon Musk and Robert Zubrin both are skeptical about any possibility of material exports from Mars, at least in the early stages (though Zubrin thinks there might be a case for deuterium exports), and both think that a space colony could pay for imports solely through licensing of intellectual property to Earth. Robert Zubrin draws the analogy with the "Yankee Ingenuity's flood of inventions" which he says was due to a situation of acute labour shortage in the US in a technological culture, which would be paralleled on Mars. But how would that work in practice?
First, for US readers, I'd like to point out that this whole idea is based on a US perspective on inventions. I'm from the UK and we also talk about our country as the source of a flood of inventions, frequently. Here is an example.
"We're a nation of inventors, from the worldwide web to the electric vacuum cleaner - here's a rundown of our most influential innovations", intro to a list of the 50 greatest British Inventions from the UK in the Radio Times.
And putting aside national pride, which all countries have, surely for such a small country, we have indeed made many inventions here. We don't have the same narrative that it was due to a labour shortage, nor do we think of the US that way either. I'm not talking about historians here, but ordinary folk. Robert Zubrin's quote was the first I heard of this idea, which I assume from the way he put it, must be quite commonly accepted in the US. We just think that we are a nation of inventors, and leave it at that. We don't try to explain why.
At any rate if it's true of the US, surely it can't explain why we have so many inventions from the UK as we've never had a significant labour shortage. Indeed the opposite, here technology put many skilled people out of work leading to uprisings by working people during the industrial revolution followed by military repression
The leader of the Luddites - self employed weavers who feared getting put out of work by the newly introduced weaving technology of the late eighteenth and early nineteenth century, and replaced by less skilled workers. They destroyed industrial equipment in protest. Later on agricultural workers joined in, destroying threshing machines. The UK government responded by military action against them, executions, deportation, and they made destroying industrial machinery a capital offence. The US narrative that invention was the result of a labour shortage just doesn’t work when applied to UK inventions. It was almost the opposite, inventions caused a labour shortage here, at least of skilled workers
Let’s look at some of the metrics that measure the talent and creativity of a country. The rankings vary from year to year, but in 2015,
When you combine all these measures, the US comes second with only Australia ranked higher. So it doesn’t seem that being inventive is the most important attribute when it comes to becoming a leading technological nation. It is one of several factors. Availability of education, tolerance and openness to ideas also has a lot to do with it as well as the numbers of people in the creative classes in society. See list of the most creative countries and then for the detailed stats, Global Creativity Index.
Perhaps there is some correlation with labour shortage, for instance, Japan, second in the list of inventiveness by patent applications, is top in the list of countries facing acute skill shortages - but which way does it go? Does innovation lead to skills shortages or vice versa? The whole question is a complex one. Here is a survey of the literature from 2005 from the Department of Trade and Industry in the UK which looks at some of the drivers of innovation. The focus is more on trying to find ways to fill the gaps in skill shortages, and ways to encourage workers to get involved in innovation since innovation often comes from the less skilled workers - it also looks at different styles of innovation - the radical creativity that we may be most familiar with and incremental accumulation with a slow and steady pace of innovation.
I think it is hard to say for sure whether space colonies would be more innovative than countries on Earth on the basis of this information.
Also, the space colonists would be using many inventions from Earth, so surely they would have to pay many royalties in the other direction back to Earth? How could it be possible to set up a system where the Earth has to pay royalties to Mars and not vice versa?
And then - how also could it work, even if a space colonists did turn out to be much more inventive than Earth? The only people who would be able to earn foreign currency for imports to Mars would be the ones who make these inventions. But it's not enough to be inventors. They have to make their inventions into paying inventions also. And highly profitable inventions too, to pay for such items as spacesuits.
It’s best to think of spacesuits as more like mini spaceships than the suits of science fiction stories and movies, which are depicted as not much more complicated than wetsuits with aqualungs. They have to be pressurized to hold in atmosphere at a pressure of tons per square meter when surrounded by a vacuum, yet also flexible too with many joints, also able to withstand minute micrometeorites hitting at kilometers per second, and to keep the astronaut cool because the vacuum of space is a good insulator, like a vacuum flask. This makes them far more complex than any diving equipment.
A typical NASA spacesuit would probably cost about $2 million dollars to build from scratch - that’s as a recurring item, not including the initial design costs. It requires about 5,000 hours of work and would take someone who had all the necessary skills about two and a half years to build, given supply of all the parts and materials needed. I get those details from Space suit evolution (NASA). It’s possible that this could change with future designs. But that’s the current situation, and for the foreseeable near future.
I'm an inventor, and I have invented dozens of things (mainly games and software ideas) but I only earn dollars per day from them, and many have never been published in any form (attempted to publish some of them with no success).
Similarly I've written many original articles, but again, though I earn a bit from the kindle booklets, it's only a dollar or two a day, at present anyway. And that's not at all unusual. For instance I have many composer friends, but it is rare for them to earn a living entirely from composing.
As for composers, artists, writers, or other creative people, earning amounts that would let them buy multimillion dollar spacesuits for all their friends, and ship them to a space colony - well forget about it, unless the next Harry Potter is written on Mars. Even then, J. K. Rowling’s estimated wealth is 1 billion - enough to buy spacesuits for 500 people. She earns 23 million a year, enough to pay for 11.5 spacesuits a year. You’d need a lot of J. K. Rowling’s to support a large Mars colony.
Amongst all my friends and relatives here in UK, another country with a high proportion of inventors, then yes many of them are indeed innovative and creative and inventors in spirit. But I can't think of many that make a living from their inventions, especially just as intellectual property rights. It's the same also for software programmers - most independent shareware developers that I know, often authors of very inventive software, do it part time, and couldn't earn enough from it to support themselves or their families.
Only a few of all the people who invent things go on to make millions of dollars from their inventions, enough to pay for spacesuits and the like for all their friends and colleagues if they so wished. Even Elon Musk came close to bankruptcy once, in his worst year.
"We were running on fumes at that point," Musk says. "We had virtually no money... a fourth failure would have been absolutely game over. Done." Elon Musk in an interview with Scott Pelley, March 30 2014.
So there is a measure of luck there as well. SpaceX would not be here today if his fourth test flight had gone wrong.
So, if you had a million colonists, I don't think we can expect to have a million Elon Musk's. You might be lucky to have one. I think it is fair to say he is at least a one in a million success story. And however brilliant he is, would he earn enough just through intellectual property rights on Earth, managed remotely from, say, Mars, to pay for all the imports needed for a colony of a million people? Even a billion dollars a year of earnings is only $1000 per person which wouldn't get you far importing expensive components from Earth to Mars.
There's also the question of how that would work in practice. Is it going to be a communal system or even communist (in the good sense) where the inventor's earnings are used equally to support everyone? If so, where is the incentive for the inventor to not just invent, but to go to all the work to get their invention into production, or for entrepreneurs to join in with them? Or is it the case that the inventors who are successful are the only ones who earn anything in Earth currencies, and so are the only ones who can afford to import goods, and they then sell them on to the other colonists at any price they care to set in the local Mars currency? And what’s to stop them from emigrating to Earth once they become financially successful, especially since most of their earnings would accrue on Earth and the on the spot business decisions would be made on Earth, and the meetings with investors and manufacturers etc. would also be done there?
I'm not expert in politics or economics. I may well be missing something here. But it seems on the face of it to be quite a problematical way to support a colony. I'm interested in any thoughts on this - do say in comments on the Science20 articles or the kindle booklets pages or here.
On the face of it, at least, this seems a major advantage of the Moon, that you'd have many different revenue streams to pay for imports, at least potentially.
I haven't listed exports of Helium 3 for fusion here. Although it gets a lot of publicity, it's based on technology we don't have, and some experts think we will never have it, and requires mining large areas of the lunar surface. Also, the helium 3 you would get from mining all the regolith to a depth of 3 meters would produce as much power as you'd get from solar cells you could make on the surface for much less effort using lunar silicon melted in situ, in seven years. So would it not make more sense just to build solar cell power plants on the Moon and beam the power back to Earth? It may however be a useful byproduct of other mining operations on the Moon. For details, see Case for Moon First - Helium 3 .
Of those, only the first, intellectual property, applies to Mars, at least in the early stages.
That is of course, apart from the ideas mentioned in the previous section, but they are none of them things we can count on right away, and some may depend on keeping Earth microbes out of Mars.
Also, if Mars geology could lead to unique gems such as the possible Mars opals of the previous section, then what about the Moon? Might it also have unique exports that can only form in the lunar conditions? For instance, could there be lunar gems?
Surprising discovery in 2008 - the near side of the Moon has large deposits of relatively pure chromite spinel, which is a gemstone on Earth. This was discovered from orbit. The moon rocks have small amounts of spinel mixed up in them, but this was a much stronger signal. Could the Moon have spinel gemstones? As with the Mars gems, if they exist, they probably wouldn't be worth the cost of returning to Earth unless they have something distinctive about them due to formation in lunar conditions.
Or might there be anything else unique to lunar geology that we might prize back on Earth?
MAINTENANCE COSTS
For a profitable colony, I think the main thing in the very long term is how easy it is to maintain habitats and equipment in the years and decades into the future. If habitats have to be replaced every few decades (as for the ISS), and spacesuits similarly, the long term costs are going to be very high even if the startup costs are reduced.
As an example, the ISS cost €100 billion so over $110 billion, see How much does it cost? with a design life of about three decades (though it may be extended), and normal maximum number of inhabitants six. That makes the cost about 600 million a year or so per inhabitant with most of that due to the limited design life of the ISS.
The projected cost for the Stanford Torus was over $200 billion in 1975 US dollars for ten thousand inhabitants. That’s around a trillion dollars in 2016 dollars (Inflation Calculator), or a hundred million dollars per inhabitant.
If we can find a way to pay for a habitat as a one off cost, for instance through government funding, private funding, or it pays for itself commercially (the Stanford Torus was going to be paid for by exports of solar power from space to Earth), then the main issue after that is how to maintain it.
If the habitats costs a few hundred thousand dollars a year per inhabitant, then still, only the very rich could live there even after the build costs are paid off, and no matter how much the initial build costs are reduced, unless its exports are very valuable.
Then, if you can build the same habitats on Earth, for instance in a desert or floating on the sea, with no cost for its breathable atmosphere or cosmic radiation, solar flare and micrometeorite shielding, the exports from space have to be very valuable to make the space colonies competitive.
If you can reduce the maintenance cost to say hundreds of dollars per year per person then space does have some advantages over Earth, with no storms or earthquakes (depending where you build), no weathering from rain, wind, etc. Then a “home in space” might become a viable long term prospect.
On the downside you have micrometeorites, cosmic radiation, need for spacesuits etc. Can the cost of those really be reduced so much, or the exports from space be so valuable, that they compete with costs of maintenance due to weathering of buildings on Earth?
In this way, an easy to maintain colony will need exports mainly to pay for luxuries, while a hard to maintain colony will need many high value exports just to survive.
REDUCING MAINTENANCE COSTS FOR SPACE HABITATS
The three things here of most importance I think are:
1. An envelope that is low maintenance to preserve the habitat - to keep in air, and protect against any external hazards such as cosmic radiation, solar flares and micrometeorites.
2. A closed system biosphere inside - we need this for any long term space habitat as the logistic requirements and expenses are just too high otherwise. The variation in maintenance costs here would be mainly due to variations in how you supply light and heat to the habitat, and whether you get leaks of gases, water, and other materials that need to be replenished from time to time.
3. Maintenance and resupply of equipment for essential needs, for instance space suits, environment control, solar cells
For 2, I know a lot is made of the CO2 atmosphere for Mars but you don’t actually need much by way of in situ resource utilization. For instance if it is a reasonably closed system, you don’t need constant supply of water, CO2, or nitrogen. You just need to be able to top up any losses that there may be in the system. Plants don’t need a constant supply of CO2 to grow, they get the CO2 from the exhaled air of the astronauts. The astronauts in turn get their food and oxygen from the plants. In a biologically closed system those numbers all add up. If you produce enough food from plants, you automatically produce enough oxygen too and the astronauts eating that food produces enough CO2 for the plants to use in their next growth cycle, as the Russians proved in practice with their BIOS-3 experiments.
For 1, the costs can be reduced if you have a single envelope enclosing a large area, for instance a domed city or a cave or a Stanford Torus or O’Neil Colony style spinning space habitat using materials from the asteroid belt. That’s because the area of the envelope goes up as the square of the radius and the volume enclosed as the cube. So the cost per inhabitant of maintenance for the envelope will be much lower for a larger colony.
There the Moon scores over just about anywhere else for the early stages, because of the lunar caves - at least, if they are as large as the Grail data suggests. See Lunar caves. They may be up to kilometers in diameter and over 100 km long. That’s as much internal area as an O’Neil colony, and if it is easy to convert that into a low maintenance envelope for the habitat, turning interior walls to glass perhaps, the maintenance costs might go right down. They would protect from cosmic radiation, solar flares, micrometeorites and hold in the atmosphere against the vacuum of space.
You might wonder about power requirements to produce food on the Moon with the 14 day lunar night. Robert Zubrin uses figures of 4 MW per acre for artificial sunlight in his Case for Mars (page 237) or about a kilowatt per square meter.
However the power requirements per habitant are far less than you might think as with efficient hydroponics, you only need 30 square meters per person, to provide 95% of their food and oxygen, from the BIOS-3 experiments. Also those figures for the power requirements to illuminate the crops must be for the older halogen lights. Modern LEDs are far more efficient and can be optimized to emit only the frequencies of light that are most useful for plant growth. The result is that you only need 100 watts per square meter or about a tenth of the figures in Case for Mars.
When you combine those lower power requirements per square meter with the small growing area needed per inhabitant from the BIOS-3 experiments, that makes it only 3 kilowatts per inhabitant, which you’d need for 12 hours a day and on the Moon you’d only need it during the lunar night as well. That’s a power level that could be supplied using solar cells and power storage such as fuel cells or batteries for the 14 day lunar night. Alternatively you can lower the temperatures of the crops during the lunar night from 24 °C to 2.5-3 °C (which helps maintain plant vitality during darkness) and leave them in darkness, which results in edible crop yields reduced by 30 - 50%. So that would require up to double the growing area, or around 60 square meters per astronaut, and no need to supply extra illumination during the lunar night.
For more on this see:
I haven’t ‘covered gravity in this section, but go into it in detail in the Case for Moon First
VENUS CLOUD COLONIES - A SURPRISING LOW MAINTENANCE SOLUTION
However if you want to reduce maintenance to an absolute minimum in space habitats, well there is one other place that has far lower maintenance costs even than a lunar cave. It also has greatly reduced initial costs for the habitats as they are very low mass. It’s a surprising one to most of you perhaps. That’s Venus cloud colonies. So I’ll briefly mention those too.
Venus, just above the cloud top level, is in some ways the most habitable region in our solar system outside of Earth. The temperature and pressure there is the same as for Earth. There’s abundant sunlight, and clear skies. The atmosphere above you provides the mass equivalent of ten meters of water, shielding you from cosmic radiation and solar flares, also from micrometeorites - they are not an issue at all. Solar flares will cause large scale magnetic effects because Venus has no magnetic field to shield from them - but this is only an issue if you have kilometers long conductive cables - which are not likely to be needed.
Earth’s atmosphere is a lifting gas in the dense CO2 of Venus’ atmosphere. And just as with a weather balloon or airship - the pressure is the same inside and outside the envelope. So an airship could be filled with Earth pressure atmosphere with just a thin envelope to hold it in. Even if it is damaged, the air would leak out only slowly and the Venus acid filled atmosphere would also percolate in slowly too. Unlike any other space habitat, it would not be an emergency that you have to respond to in seconds, but something you could repair over a timescale of minutes or hours or even longer.
Russian idea for a cloud colony in the upper atmosphere of Venus, proposed in 1970s. This illustration is from Aerostatical Manned Platforms in the Venus atmosphere - Technica Molodezhi TM - 9 1971
This makes the Venus atmosphere the place offworld with the lowest maintenance costs of anywhere, I think. Also its atmosphere has all the main chemicals for life. It has carbon, oxygen, hydrogen, nitrogen and sulfur in abundance. The concentrated sulfuric acid is a source of water (it dissociates naturally into water and SO2 in the Venus sulfuric acid cycle). You can make plastics, and you can grow trees and other plants. You could even build new habitats using mainly wood and plastics and some thin layer to protect against sulfuric acid and UV light. To protect suits, airships, cloud colonies etc. from the acid involves covering them with an acid resistant coating, such as teflon (suggested here on the basis of tests simulating Venus atmosphere conditions).
Instead of $2 million spacesuits, you have acid resistant suits, which eventually you’d make locally, and aqualung style air breathers. This is a major saving since spacesuits are so complicated, and components for them when they fail would be a large budget item in any space colony I think.
Venus also has gravity levels identical to Earth, so if full Earth gravity turns out to be best for human health, this is easily achieved in the Venus cloud colonies.
Its long day may seem a disadvantage, as its solar day is a very long 116.75 Earth days. However the upper atmosphere super rotates once every four Earth days in a steady jet-stream like flow which gives the cloud colonies a two Earth day “night” and a two day “day” which is much more acceptable.
The cloud colonies also score at an early stage because you can launch a much larger habitat to the cloud colonies for far less mass per inhabitant. Or much more living space for the same mass sent to Venus. This would be an inflatable habitat like the Bigelow Aerospace idea - but one that is as lightweight as an airship.
Much of this will seem unfamiliar and unlikely to many of my readers. The thing is that ideas for Mars have been worked out in considerable detail, by the Mars colonization enthusiasts and the Mars Society etc. We don’t have any similar advocacy group for Venus or even the Moon. So there’s a tendency to look at everything with “Mars spectacles” and see how the Mars solutions would work on Venus or the Moon. And not surprisingly you find out that the solutions devised for Mars work better on Mars than anywhere else. But once you start looking at these other places in their own right, then a different picture may emerge.
If you are interested in this idea and want to follow it up further, see my Will We Build Colonies That Float Over Venus Like Buckminster Fuller's "Cloud Nine"?
So I think at least potentially Venus cloud colonies have the lowest maintenance requirements of all and might well hit that $100s per colonist per year figure at an early stage.
Still you need to pay back the initial build costs. The Stanford Torus was projected to take 22 years to build for 10,000 colonists at a cost of around a trillion in 2016 US dollars (see Building the Colony and Making It Prosper). A Venus colony wouldn't need anything like as much mass, for instance no regolith shielding is needed, you only need thin envelopes and there is no need to contain the pressure of an Earth atmosphere against a vacuum. The engineering is simpler as well. You could probably launch it all from Earth for a similar number of colonists over a similar timescale at a much lower cost than the Stanford Torus
But you still need some motivation for doing it. Even if it costs much less, and is easier to maintain once built, how can you do it if there are no profitable exports and they can't pay back the build costs? So let’s just look briefly at its commercial value for exports.
ORBITAL AIRSHIPS FOR VENUS AND MARS
This depends a lot on how easy it is to export from Venus. That’s why I don’t see this happening in the very near future, for as long as you need massive rockets to launch from the colonies to orbit similarly to the ones needed for Earth. However JP Aerospace are working slowly and steadily on their idea for orbital airships. Even in the near vacuum of the Earth’s upper atmosphere, hydrogen and helium float in the near vacuum of oxygen and nitrogen. And that’s even more so with the denser Venus CO2 atmosphere. They accelerate using ion thrusters, slowly over several days, and meanwhile also rise higher and higher in the atmosphere. Eventually they break the speed of sound barrier - but by then they are so high it is an almost vacuum and it is not a problem.
Artist’s impression of orbital airship from JP Aerospace’s Airship to Orbit handout - this would be a very lightweight 6,000 foot airship which slowly accelerates to orbit from the upper atmospheric station using hybrid chemical and electrical propulsion over a period of several days.
You need a staging post at a high level in the atmosphere for Venus or Earth where passengers and goods are transferred to a high altitude orbital airship which is much larger and lighter, designed for upper atmosphere operations. See my Projects To Get To Space As Easily As We Cross Oceans for an overview, also see their book: The Airship to Orbit Program
Note that this also applies to Mars too. Their orbital airships would be able to accelerate to orbit from the Mars surface with no need for an upper atmosphere staging post. If this is possible, then you could have both Venus and Mars as “garden planets” and Venus would score over Mars in that respect because the greenhouses would be far less substantial for a larger living area and much lower maintenance.
But the Moon also would have low cost exports because of its low delta v and because of Hoyt’s cislunar transport system which could reduce costs to almost zero (see my Exporting materials from the Moon)
Apart from this idea of a garden planet, it needs to be some product of the Venus atmosphere. Sulfuric acid is the obvious one, but not especially valuable. Might there be some really high value product? One possibility might be deuterium. As I mentioned in the discussion of Mars exports, Venus has a deuterium / hydrogen ratio 120 times Earth’s (and 24 times that of Mars)Implications of the high DH ratio for the sources of water in Venus' atmosphere. Instead of six tons of water electrolysis yielding one kilogram of deuterium, as is the case for Mars water, this would yield 24 kilograms of deuterium, or four kilograms per ton. However as for Mars, can we count on deuterium to be a valuable commodity in the future? And would the higher deuterium levels lead to more than a modest saving in the costs of extracting deuterium? Even with one atom in 54 consisting of deuterium, that’s still far from pure and would require many stages of whatever process is used. On the other hand unlike Mars, Venus does have abundant solar power, even more so than Earth, which may help. Still, as for Mars, this seems a bit of a stretch to me, unless some method is developed for making it much easier to extract deuterium quickly with minimal power requirements - but in that case costs would also be reduced hugely on Earth as well.
As for Mars, another possibility is products of indigenous life, as there is a small chance of life in the Venus clouds. There is indirect evidence in the form of asymmetrical microbe sized particles in the atmosphere and carbonyl sulfide, a clear sign of life here on Earth (though it could be created inorganically on Venus). See my: If there is Life in Venus Cloud Tops - Do we Need to Protect Earth - or Venus.
Again, as for Mars there’s the possibility of growing plants if conditions in the Venus clouds let you produce unusual food or decorative plants more easily, for instance, rare flowers on Mars that are very expensive to grow elsewhere, or similarly unusual and tasty rare new food stuffs that grow best on in the Venus clouds for some reason, perhaps genetically designed for those conditions, since the environment of the Venus clouds would be hard to replicate on Earth.
As for Mars, we have to explore Venus first.
Concept for a robotic airship called VAMP to explore Venus. It weighs only 450 kg, although its wingspan of 46 meters dwarfs the space shuttle . It would inflate while still in orbit around Venus attached to its mother ship, and then spiral down to the cloud tops in a slow motion re-entry that needs only minimal thermal protection. Incredible Technology: Inflatable Aircraft Could Cruise Venus Skies, details here Venus Atmospheric Maneuverable Platform It could explore the Venus atmosphere for years at the cloud tops, the same level that’s suggested for the Venus cloud colonies. Video discussion here
At a later stage, we could send astronauts to explore the atmosphere using airships, then return to Earth as explored in NASA’s HAVOC concept study. The return to orbit would be accomplished using something like the Pegasus air launched rocket. See project home page. This is an internal study, so it's at an early stage at present.
NASA Study Proposes Airships, Cloud Cities for Venus Exploration. Technical details here and here
Perhaps it’s possible that we might discover something of high value as we explore and study the Venus clouds. However, we can’t count on it at present.
MARS AS AN ASTEROID MINING HUB FOR THE DISTANT FUTURE - OR SHOULD IT BE VENUS?
I mentioned earlier that Robert Zubrin talked about the Mars system as a base to support asteroid miners in the more distant future. He thinks that Deimos and Phobos might be especially useful here. So, let’s just look at this for the more distant future. Intuitively, Mars is closer to the asteroid belt so you’d think, surely it’s the best place to support asteroid miners? However, the situation is not as clear as you might think.
First, asteroid mining is likely to start with NEOs - we get many asteroids that do close flybys of Earth, Venus or Mars, some with orbital periods close to the Earth or Venus year. The ones that do low delta v flybys of Earth seem the most likely ones for early mining operations after the Moon. We have dozens of large NEOs to mine first, kilometers in diameter. It’s not likely we’ll exhaust those any time soon, and this also has the extra benefit that we are removing asteroids that have the potential to hit Earth at some point in the maybe distant future. For NEOs ranked in various ways including commercial value, see astrorank.
We can also mine the Moon for asteroid resources - the Moon has been hit by many asteroids in the past, so whatever materials you have in asteroids are probably also on the Moon or in it. It's mainly a question of how accessible those materials are. There's some evidence suggesting that the Moon may have rich surface deposits of platinum (and so also of other metals) from the metallic core of the 100 km asteroid that created the Aitken basin as well as other iron rich asteroids and other asteroids of other compositions in the past (see Metals). The Apollo missions only explored a small part of the Moon and a few spots within that region and didn't travel far from their landing sites. Also they did nowhere near to a thorough survey of the places they did visit. They just didn't have the time for that, and only had a geologist there for the last mission. As for later investigations, you can only do so much with the few orbital missions we've had since then.
Then, when we do have humans in the asteroid belt, it's a lot of delta v to go from one asteroid to another and going via Mars doesn't help except on rare occasions. Most of the time, it will take much more delta v to get to an asteroid via Mars than a direct route, and the same is true for travel to / from Earth. Mars is only useful when you have an energy efficient trajectory that takes you from Mars to the asteroid, for instance via Hohmann transfer.
However, Geoffrey Landis has made a rather surprising observation here in his Colonization of Venus. See Accessibility of Asteroids from Venus in this paper. Even though Venus is closer to the Sun than Earth, because of Venus's faster orbit, the flight time to Ceres or Vesta is actually less from Venus than from Earth or Mars via Hohmann transfer. So Venus actually has advantages as a main asteroid belt mining hub over Mars, a bit counterintuitively. The transfer time is less and you have more opportunities also to get there because of Venus’s shorter year of 225 days instead of Mars’s 687 days, which is three times longer. So you’d get several opportunities to visit an asteroid from Venus for every single opportunity to visit it from Mars, though of course the delta v required is greater.
Hop David suggested the idea of Asteroid Cyclers to work in the same way as a Mars cycler, to cycle materials between Earth orbit and "railroad towns" colonies in the asteroid belt where the mining goes on. The same idea could be used to cycle materials between Venus and the asteroid belt.
Hop David has also suggested that Venus, and Mars would be good places to park large asteroids for mining operations - if it's too hazardous to risk parking them in Earth orbits. The Case For Asteroids. Of course this is for asteroids that already do close flybys of those planets.
Venus cyclers, like the more famous Mars "Aldrin cyclers", can get passengers from Earth to Venus by shuttling them to large spacecraft in permanent orbits that takes them back and forth between Earth and Venus over and over. The result is a somewhat shorter journey time than for Mars cyclers, and you can travel to Venus frequently, every 1..6 years instead of more than 2 years between visits. See his Case for Venus. If this happened, the cloud colonies could be useful for supplies to the asteroid miners, in return for supply of metals and other asteroid derived resources to the colonies.
So - though Mars might well be a useful staging post later on if we have a lot of people in the asteroid belt - the case is not as clear cut as you might think, and Venus might be as useful as Mars, even for supplies to the asteroid belt, depending on your priorities and the exact future situation. In the shorter term it might well be useful for mining asteroids that do close flybys of Venus, captured into Venus orbit temporarily for the purposes of mining.
CONCLUSIONS
So in short my conclusion is that the Moon is far superior over Mars in this respect and I am skeptical of the idea that a Mars colony could pay for itself via intellectual property. I just don’t see why the flow of intellectual property of commercial value has to be from Mars to Earth rather than vice versa or most likely both ways and I don’t find Robert Zubrin’s labour shortage argument in favour of that at all compelling.
Also it depends on not just inventing things but having the commercial talent to spot how to make the invention financially viable and the persistence and luck to take an invention all the way through to success. Why should Mars colonists be much better at this than anyone else? I don’t get it.
By contrast, I think a Lunar base could potentially be of commercial value, mainly because it has a low escape velocity and is so close to Earth and always at the same distance - especially so if something like Hoyt’s cislunar tether transport system is in place reducing transport costs almost to zero. It is also close enough for tourism to be a major industry eventually.
Mars I think will be the province of government sponsored or philanthropic explorations for some time - like Antarctica, where the return is not financial but scientific knowledge or just interest / excitement. I think that the initial stages of lunar exploration are also likely to be supported in a similar way - but that there is some possibility there of commercial value entering into the mix as well.
And I think we should explore Mars from orbit until we have a good understanding of surface conditions and especially not introduce Earth life to the planet. We could exploit it commercially from orbit through telerobotics, but that would depend on finding something there of commercial value to export. And I think conceivably there might be commercial exports from Mars in the future. Especially if the Mars biology produces some unique valuable biological product that can’t be made anywhere else - that might be worth exporting. But there’s currently nothing we know of that could be worth the cost of export from Mars, and whether there will be in the future, only the future can tell.
Longer term, Venus cloud colonies also seem of special interest. I suggest they are the least maintenance of all offworld habitats outside of Earth, so would need less income per habitant than any other space colony, but even so, it isn’t so easy to find a commercial case for more than an Antarctic style habitat maintained because of its science value and perhaps some tourism, because of the high costs of exports to orbit. Long term, if the orbital airships work out and reduce export costs to orbit almost to zero, perhaps Venus could be a place to grow food for export with the lowest mass and least maintenance greenhouses anywhere in the solar system outside of Earth. Orbital airships would also make Mars more commercially viable too. However, orbital airships would make it easier for Earth to export to space as well so both would have to compete with Earth, and of course the Moon.
In the more distant future both Mars and Venus could become a mining hubs for the asteroids, perhaps with asteroids parked in orbit around the planets for mining. In such a future, Venus, perhaps surprisingly, has some advantages over Mars for ease of access to the asteroid belt in terms of faster journey times and more frequent opportunities for travel.
This answer is an edited copy of the following sections of my Case For Moon First with some additional material:
Well it depends. Most I think would say it would be relatively easy to prove that it is related to Earth life. But not super easy. It wouldn’t be enough for instance to show that it uses the same a...
(more)Well it depends. Most I think would say it would be relatively easy to prove that it is related to Earth life. But not super easy. It wouldn’t be enough for instance to show that it uses the same amino acids, though that would be a good sign. Even DNA would not really be enough evidence.
IDEA THAT EARTH LIFE IS OPTIMAL - A KIND OF CONVERGENT EVOLUTION TO DNA
The problem is that some biologists think that Earth based life is optimal, and that any other life would be the same in many respects, even use the same amino acids and bases. There’s a lot of redundant coding and no reason why life can’t use more amino acids, so why doesn’t it? Maybe the ones it uses already are the best possible?
If that was true, it might be hard to prove it is related until you know a lot about it. Now if every detail of the encoding of amino acids for instance, and the cell machinery exactly copied Earth life, then that would surely be strong evidence for a common origin. But at an early stage if all you know is that it uses the same amino acids and the same bases and has the same chirality - I think exobiologists would probably start to think that it is very likely related but it wouldn’t yet be 100% proof because of this convergence argument.
I don’t find that argument very plausible myself, I think that Earth life is probably optimal - but you can have a local optimum. It’s impossible that evolution explored all possible biochemistries, and so it might well just have optimized over a finite set of the biochemistries it did explore.
So anyway if you accept that, that there are many possible forms of life and that the particular choice of amino acids for instance and bases, is to some extent arbitrary, then it would be easy to get at least a high probability assessment that the life was related. Still just probabilities though. And you can get intermediate positions here where you think that there can be alternative biologies, but only a few of them. E.g. if you think there are only two or three alternative biologies, and you have arguments to suggest they all have the same chirality (from initial chiral imbalances in the forming gas cloud - there is some evidence for an initial chiral bias in the inorganic chemistry before life) - it still wouldn’t be very strong evidence quite yet.
Also, that’s not the first thing you’d do, be able to do a complete enumeration of all the nucleotides and all the amino acids it uses - you are talking here about quite a late stage in the biological exploration of Mars. Probably anyway. Especially so if it is past life as past organics might be severely degraded by cosmic radiation. Present day life also may occur in only very low concentrations and may be hard to isolate and study, especially if it only grows in vivo and won’t flourish in vitrio in the experimental conditions on a rover as is the case for the vast majority of microbes on Earth.
So - we might well get to the stage where we have strong evidence of life on Mars, past or present day, perhaps years before we reach the stage where we can decide whether it is related to Earth life or not, even if in principle it seems quite easy to verify. Just because the life is hard to find, degraded, and because of limitations on how many expeditions we can send to Mars to search for it, given that there’s a land mass there the size of the land area of Earth, with just a few slow moving rovers over the entire surface. If we can speed this up for instance with telerobotics and numerous rovers on Mars we might find out quite quickly.
NOT A BINARY RESULT THAT IT EITHER ALL IS RELATED OR ALL IS UNRELATED - MAY BE SOME RELATED, SOME UNRELATED
Another thing that complicates this is that it is not a binary related / unrelated. There’s a good chance that some Earth life had got to Mars at some point in the past - though not at all certain. So suppose for instance that Chroococcidiopsis (one of our best candidates for a lifeform in present day Earth able to survive on Mars) somehow got to Mars on a meteorite after a giant impact on Earth large enough to send debris to Mars, survived ejection from Earth, the century minimum of transit in the vacuum and cold of space and cosmic radiation - and that it found a habitat there and flourished. This might seem even quite probable in early Mars when it still had surface oceans.
Well - would that make all native Mars life extinct? Perhaps not. Local Mars life might be better adapted to conditions there ven than Chroococcidiopsis. It might be that Chroococcidiopsis does the photosynthesis and native Mars life then eats it or co-exists with it. Or even that native Mars life is better at photosynthesis than any Earth life but that Chroococcidiopsis survives in some places there and our rovers happen to find it first.
Indeed it might be that all we prove is that a single species on Mars derives from Earth, leaving open the possibility that other species on Mars are unrelated, maybe based on a totally different biology. They could be unrelated even in the same habitat, or perhaps some habitats that are preferred by Mars originated life and some preferred by Earth originated life.
OTHER COMPLICATIONS - VERY EARLY LIFE
Also - another thing that makes it less binary Earth / Mars - what if it is early life? On the face of it at least, since Mars had its oceans for a much shorter time than Earth, this seems a strong possibility.
An RNA based lifeform using ribozymes (RNA catalysis) instead of ribosomes for instance, - that’s one strong hypothesis for what we might find on Mars. In that case, it might be related to a precursor to Earth life. But since we don’t know what the precursors were and have none surviving, it might take a lot of detective work to prove that it is indeed related to a DNA precursor rather than independently evolved.
Also there are ideas that life precursors on Earth might have used more stable polymers like PNA or TNA instead of RNA. So even if we find PNA based life on Mars, say, it might be related to Earth life, it might be that some of its ancestors are also our ancestors making us distant cousins.
Another idea that complicates this considerably is the idea that life in our solar system might have been seeded by life that evolved on a planet around a precursor star - perhaps one of the far more common red dwarf stars. It’s a bit of a puzzle, given how much more common red dwarf stars are and given that red dwarf planetary systems are thought to be quite habitable now - why did we evolve around one of the much rarer yellow dwarf stars? Well what if we actually did evolve originally around a red dwarf star? Habitability of red dwarf systems
If so it might be a cousin ,but a very distant cousin. Perhaps its ancestors aren’t from Earth, and our ancestors aren’t from Mars, but both of us have ancestors around another star that went through the nebula as our solar system was forming.
So, in short, I think this will be a long process. I think it is possible that we find some lifeform on Mars early on that looks identical to an Earth lifeform, e.g. we find Chroococcidiopsis there and then we are able to do tests to confirm that it is essentially the same, so much so that it must be related to Earth life. Even that would not prove that all Mars life is related to Earth life though, even in the present never mind in the past. And I think it’s also quite likely that we are simply unable to answer this question until we are a good way into our biological exploration of Mars.
See also my articles:
Asteroid impact. Scientists searched images of Mars to find its source crater, and two candidates seem most promising.
Another of the two possible source craters for ALH84001
The meteorites are thought to originate in impacts every one or two million years, by impactors of the scale of kilometers causing craters on Mars of diameter of tens of kilometers.
The material comes from just below the surface as that’s the material that gets into orbit from a spreading crater as it forms, perhaps a few meters down. The first meteorites probably reach Earth a century or so after impact. Earth clears its orbit in about 20 million years, and the meteorite that spent most time in transit has took about 20 million years to get here as they can tell from its cosmic radiation exposure age. See Martian meteorite - origins for a table of meteorite ages.
The youngest meteorites we have from Mars in terms of exposure age left Mars a few hundred thousand years ago. As for the materials in the meteorites, most of it is young material, volcanic, from the Mars highlands but there are a few very ancient meteorites and Allan Hills 84001 is one of those, which is why it is of especial interest.
It used to be thought to be 4.5 billion years old but new research suggests it may be 4.1 billion years old. Another meteorite has been found containing ancient zircons from Mars 4.44 billion years old, so from only a few hundred million years after the planet formed.
This is NWA 7533, nick name "Black Beauty" which is a mixture of different aged rocks but contains zircons from 4.44+-0.9 billion years ago, which is amazingly early, formed in the first 100 million years of our Solar System.
Black Beauty - the wettest meteorite from Mars and the only regolith breccia from Mars (mix of many surface rock fragments stuck together to make a single rock), like a library of 18 different rock types. It was picked up in the Sahara desert by Bedouin nomads who sold it to the scientists. When they realised how interesting it was, the nomads then went back and collected many other meteorites from the same debris field for the scientists.
For more technical details, see video of Carl B. Agee talking about the meteorite here
See also Where Should we Send our Rovers to Mars to Unravel Mystery of Origin of First Living Cells? - I’m the author of that article and copy / pasted some of the content from that article here.
Neither. They used to think that a tidally locked planet would be like that. But recent research shows that if it has an atmosphere, you get thick clouds forming on the sunny side which block out t...
(more)Neither. They used to think that a tidally locked planet would be like that. But recent research shows that if it has an atmosphere, you get thick clouds forming on the sunny side which block out the heat, and the atmosphere keeps the planet warm on the cold side. As a result, red dwarf planets in the habitable zone, like the planet candidate for Proxima Centauri B, which used to be considered uninhabitable are now thought to be quite likely places to find life - especially since there are many more of them than there are sun like stars. It just needs a few percent of them to be habitable to get vast numbers of habitable planets.
This shows how the clouds would form on the sunny side (clouds in white) in a map of a tidally locked planet around a red dwarf star.
These clouds provide 73 degrees C of cooling, so permitting the planets to be far closer to their host star and still be habitable. See Red Dwarfs: Clouds in the Habitable Zone and for the paper itself: Stabilizing Cloud Feedback Dramatically Expands the Habitable Zone of Tidally Locked Planets
We could check this by observation once we can see the planet itself as a distinct point of light, as in the infrared it will be coldest on the sunny side, unusually, because of the high clouds, and warmest on the night side where you can see right through to the surface, an effect we also get on Earth where Brazil for instance, when covered by clouds, seen from space in infrared, can seem very cold because you are measuring the temperature of high clouds.
As well as that you can get planets that get into 2:3 resonances like Mercury through tidal effects, where its spin is two thirds of its orbital period, as a result the day on the planet is actually two orbital periods. For Proxima Centauri planet that would mean a “day” of 22 Earth days if it is in a 2:3 resonance.
So red dwarf planets are top candidates now in the search for life in our galaxy.
We have, but it’s quite rare. Minor planets anyway. This is evidence of a minor planet the size of Ceres that got broken up by a white dwarf star - like our sun but billions of years into the future.
(more)...
We have, but it’s quite rare. Minor planets anyway. This is evidence of a minor planet the size of Ceres that got broken up by a white dwarf star - like our sun but billions of years into the future.
Shows a Ceres size asteroid getting disintegrated by a white dwarf, within a million years all that debris ends up in the star and all you have left of it is a dusting of unexpected elements in the star. Image credits: CfA/Mark A. Garlick.
White dwarf “Death Star” seen destroying a planet
There’s a tiny chance that this may be the fate even of some of our gas giants, especially the smaller ones (not the huge Jupiter) in the distant future according to one theory: Our Solar System Could Lose One Or More Of Its Gas Giants Billions Of Years In The Future
Our asteroid belt however doesn’t seem to be the result of a disintegrated planet. But it does happen here on a small scale. Many of the asteroids are broken up bits of larger asteroids, indeed asteroids often get hit by other asteroids, break up, and then the pieces collect together again under gravity so many asteroids are thought to be loose piles of rubble held together by gravity as the result of that happening, perhaps many times.
I don’t know if this really counts. It’s by far the hardest bug I’ve tried to debug so I suppose that counts as debugging. But I never found out what it was.
I just withdrew the software from sale. ...
(more)I don’t know if this really counts. It’s by far the hardest bug I’ve tried to debug so I suppose that counts as debugging. But I never found out what it was.
I just withdrew the software from sale. It was a minor program and I don’t know if anyone bought it - it was available in a bundle with another program Activity Timer that does get a few sales from time to time, which makes it hard to be sure but I don’t think anyone bought it for itself.
The program listing is here: Text Echo - Download - Text Echo - Windows Software
I mainly used it for multiple search and replace. It worked just fine except that about once a month, while editing text by hand, the rich edit control would show a few characters of garbage around the editing cursor inserted in the text. I went for several weeks always using it in the debug build and actually was able to break in the debugger after the bug eventually happened to see what was going on, but I still couldn’t figure it out as the code and variables all looked just fine.
The problem seemed to be happening in the Windows rich edit control itself. I got the program to copy its rich text source for me to look at and it was fine, but it was displayed incorrectly and further down the line would save incorrectly with these garbage characters. The visuals were inconsistent with the rich edit source. It’s several years now since I worked on it so I’m a bit hazy with the details of how that was.
But as far as I know I was initializing it and updating it correctly. I also tried inspecting the code my program used for working with the rich edit control visually - there wasn’t a lot of code, perhaps a few hundred lines, not many thousands of lines - and I saw nothing wrong with it. That doesn’t mean my code was fine. It might be that I had some hard to spot bug in how I initialized or updated the rich text control. I did some unusual things, particularly, streaming out the rich edit text as the raw rtf source code (which you can do), editing the source code and then streaming it back in again. Possibly something went wrong there somewhere along the line. One thought I have about it just now, what if occasionally my code somehow streamed invalid rtf source back into the control e.g. unpaired braces or some such - but only on rare occasions? Might that would confuse the inbuilt rich editor in Windows enough to do something strange at a later date although the rich edit source at that point looked fine?
I could have worked on it some more, but it’s really hard to debug a program that goes wrong only about once a month, and I never found a way to duplicate it to trigger the bug more often. Meanwhile I had several other programs that demanded my attention.
Another thing I could have done is profiling with various tools to check the code. I did do that, but only with the free tools available. There are some high cost code checking tools I could have bought to try to track down the bug by inspecting the code automatically, but I’ve no idea if they’d work either and not worth doing for a program that might or might not have earned a few dollars in its entire lifetime :). And I don’t think they’d catch bugs that depend on understanding what the intent is behind the code.
So, it’s just a mystery. I still use the program as a multi-search and replace tool for my own personal use. It can do a multi-search and replace of unlimited many search terms in plain text files (e.g. source code, html etc) simultaneously throughout a folder and all its subfolders .It’s not a capability I need very often but occasionally it is useful, maybe once every few years :).
I could change the rich edit field to a plain text field and remove all the rich edit features and do it as a plain text program, if it was worth doing that. It was such a minor bug, just a few garbled characters, inserted about once a month, However, there’s no way I can release it as a rich edit editor if it occasionally garbles a few characters while editing :).
First, from the context, this passage describes night time. The Hobbit . I often walk through woods in the dark and the trees are dark against a paler night sky. Doesn’t have to be moonlit for that...
(more)First, from the context, this passage describes night time. The Hobbit . I often walk through woods in the dark and the trees are dark against a paler night sky. Doesn’t have to be moonlit for that. Even on a dark night with clouds, and no Moon. At first it might seem completely dark but if you let your eyes dark adapt and don’t use a torch, then you’ll gradually see some shapes and the night sky can seem quite pale at that point, and you may begin to see some details around you. By this time he would already be somewhat dark adapted, it doesn’t take long to reach that point, and astronomers who spend a lot of time in darkness find that they continue to see more and more detail for not just minutes but for hours if you spend that long in darkness.
No, it couldn’t even take a photograph of it at the distance of the Moon. The ISS would span a couple of pixels at the distance of the Moon at maximum resolution. The things it does photograph are ...
(more)No, it couldn’t even take a photograph of it at the distance of the Moon. The ISS would span a couple of pixels at the distance of the Moon at maximum resolution. The things it does photograph are either very large or very bright. For instance Hubble’s highest resolution image of Mars is this one
Taken from a distance of 55,760,220 km NASA's Hubble Space Telescope Close-up of the Red Planet, Mars It has a resolution of about 4.5 km per pixel.
Voyager is currently 16.7 billion kilometers away Where are the Voyagers
At that distance, a similar image to the image of Mars by Hubble would have one pixel span around 1,350 km.
The only way it could spot Voyager was if it sent out a beam of light, say a laser beam. But Voyager communicates via radio signals. It’s bright enough to communicate with it if you look at it in the appropriate part of the radio spectrum.
That’s in our solar system. I know Hubble does many images of deep sky objects but they are absolutely ginormous the ones that are visually more than one pixel.
No, this is no problem. We can even return samples from comets and asteroids to Earth. Osiris Rex will do just that for asteroid Bennu which is thought to contain organics and have evidence of the ...
(more)No, this is no problem. We can even return samples from comets and asteroids to Earth. Osiris Rex will do just that for asteroid Bennu which is thought to contain organics and have evidence of the origins of life in our solar system, and it’s a body with a remote chance of having dormant life on it, enough of a possibility that they needed to do a planetary protection assessment for it.
The reason that’s okay is because of Greenberg’s “natural contamination standard”
As long as the probability of people infecting other planets with terrestrial microbes is substantially smaller than the probability that such contamination happens naturally, exploration activities would, in our view, be doing no harm. We call this concept the natural contamination standard.
Infecting Other World, American Scientist, July 2001
We get debris from comets and asteroids hitting Earth every year. This doesn’t show that these objects are lifeless or that there is no possibility of hazards from comets or asteroids. But if there is, we are clearly adapted to be able to cope with it. Also though much of the debris does burn up in the atmosphere - a lot of it also survives. Indeed only the outside of large rocks melts - the interior stays cold, the coldness of space and meteorites are often cold to the touch when picked up immediately after they fall. As well as larger meteorites we get numerous smaller ones that mainly burn up in the atmosphere but some debris survives to ground level. If you put out a pan of water for a few days or a week or so in a place where you get not too much by way of other dust, and preferrably reasonably dry - hen sift through the dust that accumulates in it, you’ll find some particles of meteoritic iron amongst it all which you can pick out with a magnet. Similarly there must be many particles that originate from asteroids and comets.
This same argument doesn’t work for Mars though. The problem there is that though there is some material transferred from Mars to Earth - first it happens only every one or two million years that anything hits Mars with enough of an impact to send material all the way to Earth. It takes at least a century to get here, and typically hundreds of thousands, up to 20 million years. You only get a sample of the region that gets hit and most Mars meteorites come from the higher highland regions of Mars, least likely to have life in them. Many of the proposed habitats on Mars are fragile, in surface layers of salt or dust or ice, while the debris sent into orbit from a spreading crater typically comes from some meters below the surface. And life adapted to live in the Mars briny salts or to use even its very thin atmosphere may well not survive the transit through the vacuum of space either.
So, that’s true of any sample you bring back that is isolated from Earth in some way. That would include samples from the geysers of Enceladus, or of Europa if it has them, also from Ceres, because though it gets impacts from time to time, it would take a long time for the material to reach Earth and the situation is rather similar to Mars.
But for asteroids and comets - especially ones that do close flybys of Earth, then we don’t need to worry because they get hit by other tiny asteroids regularly and some material from them has surely hit Earth already. So that’s the clearest case of the natural contamination standard. Other asteroids and comets, if they are of a type that does close flybys of Earth or collides with it, again wouldn’t be a concern, for the same reason, you are just doing something that happens frequently by natural methods anyway.
Comet 67p is not on a collision course with Earth anyway at present, closest to Sun is 1.3 au, but its orbit has been changed several times through close encounters with Jupiter, so there’s the possibility it could turn into an orbit with a close approach or collision with Earth.
If however it’s something that only happens every few million years, say, that’s not enough to say that it is safe for the requirements of planetary protection. We have many unexplained extinctions in the geological record, and it’s not possible therefore to say for sure that some event that happens only every few million years is safe for humanity (it probably is, but you can’t take even a tiny risk with a billion lives).
See also Planetary protection (wikipedia)
There’s a distinction here between Buddhas and “wheel turning Buddhas” - wheel turning means that they teach the path to awakening when it has been totally forgotten. The Buddhist sutras say that B...
(more)There’s a distinction here between Buddhas and “wheel turning Buddhas” - wheel turning means that they teach the path to awakening when it has been totally forgotten. The Buddhist sutras say that Buddha was the fourth of a thousand wheel turning Buddhas in our world system. Each one teaches, the teachings last for a few thousand years, then fade away and get forgotten. There’s then a gap with no teachings, then a new Buddha arises.
In the sutras there’s a passage about how after Buddha became enlightened, he was unsure whether to teach, wondering whether anyone would understand his teaching. He got persuaded that there are a few with “not much dust in their eyes” who would understand.
So - there’s the idea there that Buddhas can’t teach unless they are invited, so in that case it was Brahma Sahampati who asked Buddha Shakyamuni to teach in the Buddhist mythology about how the teachings got started: Ayacana Sutta: The Request
Awakening anyway is a natural thing, you don’t have to be Buddhist to awaken. so there may also be beings who awaken in between the wheel turning Buddhas when there are no teachings available, but if so, they are not able to pass on the teachings to others, at least not in the complete way that wheel turning Buddhas do, by setting up a tradition with complete teachings of the path for all types of beings.
In the Bon tradition in Tibet they claim that their teachings come from the third Buddha in our world system, from many thousands of years before the historical Shakyamuni Buddha.
Historically, there’s the one wheel turning Buddha in the early sutras in the Pali canon, but he had many followers who became arhats. This also is just one world system of many. In the Mahayana teachings especially they talk about countless Buddhas.
So anyway - that’s the traditional view on this matter. They also talk in detail about many different types of “awakening” and make a distinction between arhats, pratyekabuddhas (who become enlightened at times when there is no wheel turning Buddha’s teachings available), boddhisattvas and so on.
I think there’s also quite a bit of variety between the different Buddhist traditions on how they understand all this. And some of the traditions also teach that everyone is already enlightened if one can but see it (in those traditions, then enlightenment also involves not being caught up in rigid concepts about time and space). They also say that it is easier to be enlightened than unenlightened, and that most beings are enlightened already - we are just the few who somehow haven’t “got it” yet.
This is just a brief introduction, I’m not expert on this, but hopefully that’s a few pointers that may be useful.
This depends on your views on the authenticity of the early sutras. Some Buddhist scholars think that just about of all of them have been memorized, just as the ancient Vedas were, by monks with ex...
(more)This depends on your views on the authenticity of the early sutras. Some Buddhist scholars think that just about of all of them have been memorized, just as the ancient Vedas were, by monks with excellent memories from the time of the first great council shortly after Buddha died. If so, then it’s actually possible to get more accurate transmission by memory and passing on through speech than by written word copied by scribes, if the original texts don’t survive - as copies of written texts often have errors.
In support of this view, the early Buddhist sutras when collected from widely separated geographical regions that weren’t in contact when the texts were written down, are essentially the same texts with only minor changes. That suggest they were preserved unchanged for centuries.
If that’s correct, then much of the Pali Canon dates from that time, soon after the Buddha died. Now that doesn’t mean that it’s all the words of the Buddha. The later sutras were memorized by monks as he taught and they checked their understanding with him. But the earlier ones were remembered many years later. Especially the accounts of his birth and his early years as a prince are stories retold many years after the actual events.
Also they didn’t have the same idea of what counts as historical accuracy as us. And they worked out their consensus for the canon after he died. And the sutras are clearly organized to be easier to memorize, and are surely not “transcriptions” of his speeches as we’d understand it.
Still on this view, much of the Pali canon then consists of the teachings of the Buddha as he taught them and it may well record many of the actual words and phrases he used. Many renowned Buddhist scholars actually hold this view including the famous Buddhist scholar Richard Gombrich and Prayudh Payutto amongst others, so it’s certainly an academically respectable view to hold. There’s a lot of evidence in support of this view. See my Origins of the Buddhist Sutras - were they the Teachings of the Buddha?
The Mahayana canon is much later and some Buddhist teachings, e.g. Zen and some Tibetan teachings which in those traditions are said to carry the inspiration of enlightenment, continue to arise as new teachings to this day.
Assuming you mean a liquid ocean of water which beings sufficiently adapted could potentially swim all the way through, it would have to be small because water when compressed enough becomes ice - ...
(more)Assuming you mean a liquid ocean of water which beings sufficiently adapted could potentially swim all the way through, it would have to be small because water when compressed enough becomes ice - or else - to have a hot core, which it might have soon after formation, or be tidally heated. And I’m taking the liquid to be water rather than, say, liquid nitrogen, or liquid helium, or organic liquids such as methane, ethane etc.
So, first, the easiest case, if you don’t need it to have enough gravity to hold an atmosphere, I don’t see why not. Basically you want a large comet, in an orbit which keeps it permanently liquid. We could create such a world artificially in our solar system with mega engineering by diverting a comet into just the right orbit around the Sun.
However, unless we add something extra to the picture, it wouldn’t last long. The problem is that water evaporates rapidly in a vacuum.
Calculation indented
With surface temperature of 273.15 °K (0 °C) and using the equation for mass loss of liquid water in a vacuum of
(pe/7.2) * sqrt (M/T) kg / m² / sec
(equation 3.26 - compare calculation results here: Modern Vacuum Physics)where M is the molar mass, 0.018 kg for water, T is the temperature in kelvin, pe is the vapour pressure, which for water at 0 °C (273.15 °K) is 611.3 Pa, (Vapour pressure of water at 0 °C), so putting all those into the formula we get:
(611.3/7.2) * sqrt(0.018/295) = 0.663 kg / m² / sec.
So you lose about 57 meters a day thickness of liquid water exposed to a vacuum, or about 20.9 kilometers thickness of water per year. The rate of loss goes up if the temperature increases and is 2.495 kg / m2 /sec at 295 k, or 22 C. That’s 215.6 meters per day and 78.6 km per year.
So, a liquid water comet would not last for long. That is unless you get a constant influx of other comets bringing more water to it.
LARGER PLANET WITH SIGNIFICANT GRAVITY
What if the object is large enough to retain liquid water for long periods of time?
That’s only possible if it has at least enough gravity to retain a significant amount of atmosphere, even if the atmosphere is just water vapour, or oxygen (after dissociation of the water by radiation).
~But then - it will surely have a solid ice core. In that case, if the water is also salty, it might well have a “club sandwich” type pattern of alternating layers of ice and water as suggested for Ganymede, of various types of ice, with some of them “snowing upwards”
Images from: Possible 'Moonwich' of Ice and Oceans on Ganymede (Artist's Concept) and for paper, see Ganymede׳s internal structure including thermodynamics of magnesium sulfate oceans in contact with ice
But even Ganymede is not large enough to retain a permanent atmosphere to protect the surface layer of water. Its diameter is 5,268 km so if brought close enough to the Sun to have a permanently liquid surface layer, and if there was no atmosphere to protect it, it would vanish completely in 67 years.
It could build up a temporary atmosphere however, as the water evaporated. It’s gravity is similar to the Moon’s.
So using a calculation from that answer, if you hit it with a comet 164 km in diameter you’d have enough material for an atmosphere which would last for 10,000 years. Since the volume goes up as the cube, that means with a similar pressure atmosphere, a moon the size of Ganymede could last for 10,000*(5,268/164)^3 = 331 million years before evaporating completely if it built up an Earth pressure atmosphere. And the atmosphere would consist of water vapour and oxygen, so might well be breathable too, especially if you can somehow introduce some nitrogen as a buffer gas.
You’d need a more detailed calculation here to find out how much pressure of atmosphere it would actually build up through evaporation of the water. But the mass loss would be similar to the terraformed Moon even if it had a higher pressure atmosphere.
But that’s still no good if you want the core to be liquid all the way through.
ANOTHER SOLUTION - “DIRTY OCEAN” WITH ORGANICS
There is another solution though. If you are willing to do it artificially, you could cover the entire surface of a small comet with a low density liquid which also has a low evaporation pressure.
Indeed, comets are rich in organics anyway, so if you could bring a comet to just the right distance from the Sun, not too far, not too close, then as it melted, it would develop a layer of scum like that. And that might well be habitable too, with organics and an oxygen rich ocean too, due to similar processes to the ones that make Europa’s ocean oxygen rich.
Organics with a high evaporation rate would disappear leaving only those with a low evaporation rate, and perhaps solid layers as well.
So if you are okay with your planet being a tiny comet sized object, and your water can be a bit “dirty” with organics, which means it can also support life, I’d say yes, it does seem possible. So how large can it be?
EXAMPLE OF EUROPA
Europa’s ocean may be as much as 100 km thick, with a surface layer 10 - 30 km thick.
Based on that, you could have a minor planet made of ice, 260 km in diameter, and consisting entirely of water, I think, with a surface layer of organic ionic fluids or a scum of organics in solid form floating on the surface. That could last for billions of years.
That makes it about the same size as 88 Thisbe
Vesta’s double that diameter
Vesta, Ceres and the Moon to scale at 20 km per px
I’m just using the figures for Europa and the depth of its subsurface ocean, which is kept liquid by tidal heating, and assuming the situation is similar - so this is just a rough estimate as it would depend on what you have by way of an energy source to keep your planet or moon warm. With just surface heating, surely the center would cool down eventually.
Tidal heating could be a way to keep your planet liquid just as for Europa, so if you make it so that it orbits a hot Jupiter - those are planets like Jupiter that end up in orbits close to their sun, and they may well have liquid water moons.
CONSTANT INFLUX OF COMETS
Another solution, without the layer of ionic liquids or similar, is to have a constant influx of comets to replenish the water. I can imagine some scenarios where that could work, e.g. soon after formation of a solar system. It also might work for a while later on in a white dwarf star with material brought into it through destruction of its Oort cloud and perturbing effects of an extra planet, see Our Solar System Could Lose One Or More Of Its Gas Giants Billions Of Years In The Future - and that would also help keep it hot. In a situation like that maybe even quite a large minor planet would stay hot enough to stay liquid all the way through. But the tidal heating + surface thin layer seems the easiest solution to me.
SUMMARY
So, in short, I think this scenario could actually exist in nature, if you don’t mind having an ocean rich in organics, covered with a thin layer of organics, and make it a moon orbiting a gas giant rather than a planet on its own, to help keep it liquid through tidal heating, and make it perhaps around the size of 88 Thisbe
This is just a rough estimate. Would be interesting if someone was to do a paper on it - has anyone?
Would a liquid water world the size of Vesta or even Ceres be possible, with tidal heating to keep it warm? Can a hot Jupiter have a moon of pure ice? (I don’t see why not if it formed far enough away from its host star originally, but would be interesting to know how likely that is).
Alternatively, it could be possible if the world is kept hot and liquid by impacts of numerous comets - perhaps for quite some time in the early stages of formation of a solar system.
STACK EXCHANGE DISCUSSION AND STAR TREK VOYAGER EPISODE
See also stack exchange discussion here, where I’ve just added this answer (a copy of the original text which I wrote here)
Could a planet made completely of water exist?
The original question there is motivated by a story in Star Trek Voyager about a planet made entirely of water with the water prevented from escaping by a “containment field”
The Moon for sure. It’s not enough, to do it all by yourself, but you could collaborate with the ESA which plans a moon village as a collaboration between many nations as well as private companies....
(more)The Moon for sure. It’s not enough, to do it all by yourself, but you could collaborate with the ESA which plans a moon village as a collaboration between many nations as well as private companies. One estimate for the cost of a lunar base is $10 billion - Moon Base Would Be Cheap with Help from Private Industry: Report - that’s from 2015.
I think the first priority though is to find out what is on the Moon, and for that we need some robotic explorers. So you could start by sponsoring a robotic mission to the Moon. Perhaps you could send your first robotic spacecraft to the Moon using Astrobiotics which is one of the more interesting Lunar X prize candidates for next year - they will take other spacecraft with them. It’s too late to join the Lunar X challenge as a new team but you could collaborate with one of the existing teams to help them to succeed and increase their capabilities, or you could just book a launch on a later mission.
Despite all the talk, I don’t think we will have space colonies in the near future, not in the next few years. And I don’t actually know for sure if we will ever. I think a good parallel is with the situation for Antarctica at the end of the nineteenth century. Someone could have come up with a plan to colonize Antarctica and if so they could have made a much better case probably than we can now for the Moon or Mars, for self sufficiency, so long as they were prepared to kill whales, penguins, seals etc - which back then nobody would have had any qualms doing. But - if anyone had done that, I think probably it wouldn’t have lasted long ,because it would be a hard difficult life, and why live in Antarctica when you can live somewhere much easier and go there for a year or two at a time supported by people outside Antarctica where it is so much easier to live, grow things, make things etc.
I think right now we are in a similar situation with space colonies. On paper it might seem they would work, but in practice, it would be so much easier to live on Earth and do most of the supplies from Earth, so I don’t think a colony right now would last long. It all depends on how easy it is to maintain. If a space habitat has to be renewed every couple of decades, it’s going to be very expensive, your one off billions of dollars payment will need to be repeated every few decades just to keep going. Probably also you need to send many spares to replace equipment as it breaks down along the way.
I think our priority right now is to explore rather than colonize. By finding out more we could prevent expensive mistakes a bit way down the road.
The best place for a colony though, if it were possible (which I don’t know if it is) might be the polar region of the Moon with 24/7 sunlight, ice nearby. Or alternatively the lunar caves. We need to know more about the Moon from the ground before we can judge their relative merits but the ESA certainly is focused on the lunar poles as the place to go.
If you do a head to head comparison, surprisingly, the Moon wins over Mars in many respects, even for resources for a start up colony, especially with new discoveries. Also the Moon has the advantage that it’s always at the same distance from Earth, easy to get to and back, with Hoyt’s cislunar transport system you can even set it up so you get materials back from the Moon with no use of fuel at all, exploiting its position higher in the gravity well of Earth, like rolling stones down a hill.
So anyway - I’d use a small amount for robotic missions first, and then join in collaboration with the ESA where a few billion dollars might perhaps mean you can contribute an extra habitat to the lunar village, or some extra shared capability, or help them to get it all underway sooner.
If the motivation is to go multi-planetary in an attempt to escape problems on Earth however, I’d say you can do a lot more with the same amount of money to protect the Earth - with half a billion dollars you could fund the Sentinel space telescope and detect most of the smaller asteroids in Near Earth Orbit within less than a decade.
But if the motivation is to explore and have humans in space, then the Moon is the place to begin I think.
Also in the case of the Moon there’s a chance of mining ice for water / fuel, of making solar panels in the high grade vacuum by vacuum deposition, mining various metals possibly including platinum, and you might possibly turn a profit by exporting to LEO or get some of your money back at least. That’s also possible perhaps for asteroids. Hard to see how you’d get any of your money back for Venus or Mars. And risks are far higher for them.
Also for Mars particularly, we sterilize all the robotic landers to prevent contamination with Earth life. Also there’s evidence that suggests it might possibly have habitats compatible with Earth life actually a few cms at most from the surface. If we continue to protect Mars from Earth life, I think myself that it’s not at all clear that we can land humans there, especially given the possibility of a crash landing. It might have interesting life or life precursors which we’d want to protect. Those who advocate Mars colonization are banking on us either finding that introduced Earth life will cause no harm to Mars, or deciding that we will stop protecting Mars from Earth life. However, when could we make either of those decisions? And what if we decide we want to keep protecting Mars once we know more? To do a sketchy first biological survey of Mars would require maybe 54 successful landers - just using an old estimate by Carl Sagan? So it will be a fair while before we can assess accurately what the effect would be of introducing Earth life to the planet. See How many years are needed to do a biological survey of Mars?
In the case of the Moon we already know that there is no life on the surface and it is classified as Category II meaning no special precautions are required to land humans there, or anything else, just document carefully what you do so that others who follow up know which parts of the Moon have had landigns / impacts which may have introduced Earth organics and other contaminants to the surface.
For more about reasons for going to the Moon first, and general background and why I think this is the time for space exploration and settlement and colonization is for a somewhat later date, if we do it at all (like Antarctica), see my Case For Moon First
First, the chance of this is absolutely minute. Asteroids or comets of diameter 10 km or larger hit Earth only once every 100 million years. We have already found all the near earth asteroids of di...
(more)First, the chance of this is absolutely minute. Asteroids or comets of diameter 10 km or larger hit Earth only once every 100 million years. We have already found all the near earth asteroids of diameter 10 km upwards and none will hit us this century. So that does indeed leave comets - or the very rare asteroids in long period comet like orbits, as the remaining possibilities. There’s no consensus on what percentage of impacts are by comets but far fewer than one every 100 million years. That means the chance of such an impact in this century, anywhere on Earth, is far less than 1 in a million. It can happen - Mars had a close flyby by comet Sliding Spring, and though Mars gets more impacts than Earth does, Earth must have a chance of being hit by a large comet too, but it is very very unlikely.
Yes, in the exceedingly unlikely case of such an impact, the effects would be devastating as the other answers say. The maximum impact velocity for a long peiod comet orbiting the sun at Earth’s distance from the Sun is 72 km / sec, and you can feed this figure into the Imperial College London Earth Impact Effects Program for an approximate idea see Calculated Results (this shows the effects at the opposite side of Earth from Australia) and for effects on Australia, 1000 km from the impact, see Calculated Results - basically anything easily combustible burns.
So, I think it’s fair to say that few humans or other large terrestrial mammals would survive in Australia due to direct heat and fires over 1000 km from the impact. An impact this large sends ejecta into space with more than escape velocity, so there would be secondary impacts of smaller lumps of rock hitting over the entire Earth, though not much would get as far as the opposite side of Earth. There might be firestorms world wide due to these secondary impacts, with most trees burning. The worst effects would be the long term “nuclear winter” effects leading to much reduced crops for several years.
But though many would die, I don’t think humans would go extinct. First, for the impact event itself, even if there are global firestorms, you just need a few to survive, in submarines, for instance (storms, even tsunami are surface effects and submarines don’t experience them unless close to the surface), or in a base in Antarctica or some cold desert with no trees or other vegetation to be set alight.
And then - the thing is that humans are omnivores that can survive with minimal tools anywhere from the Arctic to the Kalahari desert. We can eat fruit, roots, shellfish, animals, birds, almost anything edible, There would be some stores of food survive the event also. We would surely not lose the ability to make primitive boats, to travel to other parts of the world. We are mammals also and not dependent on sunlight to stay warm. When the dinosaurs went extinct, birds, turtles, small mammals, many creatures survived. Even if 90% of all species went extinct, humans would surely be amongst the 10% of survivors, it seems to me.
That’s even with no preparation, and new comets are usually discovered one to two years before they fly through the inner solar system, so we’d have at least a year of warning too. So we’d prepare, we’d set up shelters, store food, move to parts of the world that would not be affected by a firestorm if that was predicted, or build fireproof shelters, maybe with oxygen also if it’s predicted that the fire would use up the oxygen at ground level for the duration of the fire, etc etc.
The whole thing though is such low probability that it’s not worth spending much time thinking about. Movies often focus on large dramatic impacts, sometimes far too large to be plausible at all (if you can see the impactor next to the Earth with both shown to the same scale, in HD, it is far too large to be plausible, larger than any known impact for the last over 3 billion years in the inner solar system from Mars inwards). But the smaller impacts are far more likely.
By probability the first successful predicted impact of a hazardous asteroid is far more likely to be a few tens of meters in diameter, perhaps up to 100 meters in diameter than a big asteroid kilometers in diameter. Those smaller impacts happen every few thousand years, and the smaller ones every few centuries, or even more often. Also most of Earth is covered in sea or is uninhabited desert. So don’t expect this headline
“Large comet to hit Earth, size of New York, crater two hundred kms in diameter, global effects, ”
It’s possible but extremely unlikely.
This is far more likely:
“Large asteroid to hit sea, 50 meters in diameter, co-ordinates … on date and time … - ships and planes should avoid that area at the time of impact”
or
“Large asteroid to hit remote desert, 50 meters in diameter, co-ordinates … on date and time … -”
and a much smaller chance, but still possible, perhaps would happen every few millennia:
“Large asteroid to hit inhabited area, 50 meters in diameter, will hit at co-ordinates … on date and time - inhabitants need to evacuate … -”
And even that is low probability and may not happen for several centuries, or millennia. The Tunguska event would have been devastating if it hit a city, but it hit a remote uninhabited area, and that’s the most likely outcome. It’s by far the largest impact event to be recorded in human history (Meteor Craterr in Arizona probably predated the Hopi Indians although they have legends about its formation)
Effect of the Tunguska impact. Tunguska event - result of airburst of a small comet or asteroid (evidence points both ways) - devastated 2,000 km2 of forest, diameter of asteroid or comet f 60 to 190 metres (200 to 620 feet), hit an uninhabited area of Russia on the morning of 30 June 1908. Something like this hitting a desert or uninhabited region or the sea is far more likely, and wouldn’t have any global effects. It might well not harm any humans as in the Russian case.
If it does happen and we have enough notice, like a few weeks, we can evacuate the impact zone, If we have more notice than that, years or decades, we can deflect it quite easily, or break it apart.
What we need most here is knowledge. It’s the one natural disaster we can not only predict to the minute, we can also prevent it too. The way to achieve that is to know the orbits of all the small asteroids so well we can predict them decades in advance. We are doing ground based searches to achieve this, but it can be speeded up hugely with space telescopes - the Sentinel telescope project would cost 0.5 billion and many military projects to protect us against each other cost many times that. Any of the more wealthy nations on Earth could finance this using a small fraction of their military defense budget. Many private individuals could also if they felt it was important enough. We can also improve our detection of comets, but right now the priority is to detect the smaller asteroids in shorter period orbits as that’s the highest probability risk, so you can reduce the risk considerably for less cost that way.
With a space telescope orbiting between Earth and the Sun we could map out most even of the smaller asteroids down to 20 meters in diameter in less than a decade, for less than 1/400th of the predicted lifetime cost of the renewed Trident nuclear submarine which our government in the UK recently approved. We could send more than 400 such telescopes into orbit to detect these asteroids for the cost of our nuclear deterrent. And that’s just one country. The world can certainly afford the cost of these space telescopes collectively, and though the risk is tiny, it’s not much to pay for such return. That’s 7 cents per inhabitant, one off payment, for the entire world, or less than $2 per inhabitant for the US, or $1 per inhabitant for the EU, one off payment.
Meanwhile the UK Trident nuclear deterrent renewal lifetime cost for the UK is ab0ut £3,000 per head of our population of 64 million ($4,000) based on that £205 billion figure. Do we have our priorities right? (Replacing Trident will cost at least £205bn, campaigners say - that’s before the pound devalued)
The one in a million chance per century for a 10 km or larger asteroid impact is a minute chance for anyone individually, way below any ordinary risks, far more likely to be struck by lightning, but when you multiply by the population of the Earth it’s several thousand people expected number killed in a century.
However given that we have already found all the 10 km diameter NEOs, it’s more like a 1 in 100 million chance since only 1 in 100 impacts are by comets (rough estimate). Now that we’ve completed the search for 10 km NEOs, the risk of death by impact is now roughly equal between the smaller and the larger asteroids, and the risk from the larger asteroids continues to decrease as we find the 1 km asteroids too. We know how to find those and have found 90% and will find 99% some time in the 2020s but with the smaller asteroids, the existing programs won’t find most of them until much later which is why we need to expand on those programs with space telescopes to meet the target of finding 90% of all hazardous asteroids by the 2020s.
See also my Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
The scenario is just about impossible. That is to say it could have sentient inhabitants but for them to have roughly the same technology level as us is just about impossible - unless they were col...
(more)The scenario is just about impossible. That is to say it could have sentient inhabitants but for them to have roughly the same technology level as us is just about impossible - unless they were colonized by us or one of our creations or descendants at some earlier stage (i.e. this scenario happens a century or two into our future).
Why do I say that? Well the first microscopic multicellular life that lead to humans arose about 500 million years ago, but our planet is over 4.5 billion years old. Even if you had a duplicate of Earth, formed at the same time as Earth, why would that happen exactly 4 billion years later? And why would it take 500 million years after that to reach the point where a technological species to evolve, instead of say 400 million or 600 million. What about the earlier evolution of photosynthetic life, which was necessary for an oxygen rich atmosphere - what if that was a few hundred million years earlier or later?
One of the most habitable places in our solar system is Europa’s ocean, in our own solar system. With an oxygen rich ocean, there may be some small chance of a civilization of non technological fish or octopuses or some such. If so, then even though it formed around the same time as Earth, the chance that any civilization there is just a few thousand or a few hundred thousand years old must be tiny. Chances are, either there is no civilization there, or it is millions of years old. That’s just in our own solar system.
Now add in that our star was by no means the first star that life could evolve around. Their star could have formed up to ten billion years ago. And now you are supposing that they are at the same technological level as us, i.e. their development so exactly paralleled ours that they are at the same level of technology we have in the 21st century, not the nineteenth century or the year 3000 or whatever. What’s the chance of that?
I know that it’s the assumption in many movie plots, but it requires a lot of “suspension of disbelief”. In the Star Trek universe they hypothesize “ancient humanoids” that seeded many planets with DNA so designed that they would all evolve to civilizations of humanoids with space faring technology at around the same time, to within a few centuries, 4.5 billion years later.
Ancient humanoid who in the Star Trek universe seeded many planets with life which independently evolved to humanoid lifeforms which then evolve space faring technology within a few centuries of each other 4.5 billion years later
That maybe works in fiction, but in reality, the idea is just absurd.
So they would be likely to be a millions of years old civilization. Either they have no technology (e.g. in an aquatic dolphin society, or even the likes of clever parrots, able to do some manipulation of objects but not to the extent we can), in which case it is a walk over for us, or they have millions of years old technology, in which case we have no chance unless they have just decided not to defend themselves.
This also leads to the question - why is the galaxy not filled already with extra terrestrials? Well if we find any extra terrestrials, they can’t possibly be expanding populations either, not exponentially expanding, because even doubling every thousand years, and travelling at 10% the speed of light average, they would fill the galaxy in its entirety well within a million years.
They would be here already and would have conquered Earth millions of years ago, if they wanted it, and would be in severe difficulty trying to find resources for all their colonists in the galaxy (doubling just every thousand years, you need all the resources in the observable universe to keep going for 180,000 years, so well before that time they would have mass starvation, wars, or in some other way their expansion would slow down).
Why wait for us to evolve before making use of Earth for their colonists?
I think myself that the reason for this is because any extraterrestrials who contemplate colonizing a galaxy realize that if they do this, soon the galaxy will be filled with their progeny, their creations, the evolved descendants of their biological and mechanical and cyborg replicators they create or give birth to, and the ones that are most aggressive and expansionist would win the race to fill the galaxy. What’s more, unless they have faster than light travel, you can’t have a civilization with shared values. Someone or some creature or machine a thousand light years away could evolve and develop strange ideas and philosophies - like ISIS perhaps but far worse, for a thousand years, before you learn about them.
Before colonizing the galaxy, if they do it at all, they would find a way around that. And I think we will also if far seeing. If not, well we probably won’t last long in space, in the fragile habitats and with technology more powerful than ICBMs available to just about anyone. I think we’ve made a good start with the Outer Space Treaty but need to be careful about how we continue. For these reasons I think we shouldn’t rush into colonization, that it’s neutral, can be harmful or good. But filling the galaxy especially - I don’t think that should be our goal.
If we did try to colonize the galaxy, then, yes, if there were any beings vulnerable to us in the galaxy, e.g. without technology, however advanced in the realm of ideas, they’ve had it. But the same also applies to us, or our descendants, they would never know when some scourge would appear from beyond the light speed horizon, suddenly approaching them at close to the speed of light, using technology they developed in isolation for thousands of years. If the movie makers made these movies on the premise that the monster ETs are ourselves, then yes, that would make a lot of sense, because then that would explain why they have the same or similar technology level to us. But if they are genuine ETs they almost certainly have to be stable, can’t be exponentially growing, and must have found a way through this dilemma of how to safely colonize or explore a galaxy.
And the safest way to do it at present, with our level of technology and our level of understanding of society and politics etc, is with robots. Whether there are other solutions that let us explore or even colonize parts of the galaxy without irreversibly trashing it and causing endless problems for ourselves and other beings in it - I don’t know. I hope so. But if there is, well there’s plenty of space for quadrillions of people in just a single solar system. There’s no need to fill the entire galaxy with our kind and if there are ETs I think it is obvious they have decided not to fill the galaxy, and to do that, they need a stable civilization, shared values, and communication as well, which I think means they occupy a geographically small area of the galaxy permanently, and only explorers elsewhere. Either that or they have immensely long lives which could permit shared values across an entire galaxy. Or warp drive, and very strong shared values?
The other possibility some suggest in solutions to the “Fermi paradox” is that technological civilizations galaxy wide never last more than a few centuries and then go extinct. That could lead to a galaxy filled with technological species at the same level of development as us. But you have to assume they all go extinct before they can colonize the galaxy, otherwise, it just needs a few descendants several light years away to not destroy themselves for them to fill the galaxy with continuous successive waves of colonists. And once that happens, how could they ever go extinct, except by being out competed by more advanced colonists? Even if most of them decide voluntarily to end their lives, or destroy themselves in warfare or whatever, it just needs one small group beyond the light speed barrier to survive, and the exponential growth will continue and soon refill all the vacated solar systems.
For that reason I don’t find this scenario plausible myself.
My solution is that yes, sometimes extra terrestrials do evolve to the point where they could fill the galaxy - but the ones that get that far are farsighted enough to realize the dangers involved in an uncontrolled expansion of themselves and their creations throughout the galaxy and the impossibility of continued exponential growth for ever, and they also have the cohesiveness and enough of shared values to make the decision not to do it. For them it would be as unthinkable as setting off a nuclear weapon in one of your own cities.
Either that or we are the first to evolve to this level of technology in our galaxy. If so then we need to take especial care as we could easily become the ones who trash the galaxy.
SO WHAT ABOUT THE SCENARIO WHERE WE COLONIZED THE PLANET OR OUR CREATIONS DID?
In that case, we are talking about some time in the near future as we haven’t colonized other planets yet. But if we did set up colonies with no precautions to prevent colonization from becoming a hazard for the galaxy long term - then they might well have similar levels of technology to us.
In that case, it just needs uneven technology development. For instance one of us develops self replicating nanotech or expertise in synthetic biology and the other doesn’t. Or one of us develops the ability to create and manipulate mini black holes and the other doesn’t. Then whether it might happen is a political question, and if one or the other is controlled by political extremists of some sort, then yes, they might do it.
Or in a less intentionally aggressive situation - they might just be overwhelmed by numbers and commercial interests. We set up home in their Oort cloud, and they don’t, or in smaller numbers, and we continually expand in population and they don’t, and once their Oort cloud and all the asteroids and planets in their solar system are converted into habitats for us, they wouldn’t last long after that. Not unless we decided as a matter of policy to leave them alone.
The same would happen as easily of course the other way around with them as the aggressors setting up home in our Oort cloud. And with nanotechnology, they might use replicating nanobots to convert our Oort cloud into habitats for them before occupying it, or vice versa, and with exponential population growth it might then happen very quickly.
I think this is a reason why we need to be cautious about colonizing the galaxy. That just through sheer weight of numbers if nothing else, and uneven technology development, the galaxy would get filled with expanding waves of creatures / creations that would vanquish anything that tries to stop them, with motives that may be obscure to us, and all eventually the result directly or indirectly of early colonization attempts by humans. The easiest way to prevent this is to explore the galaxy robotically, and to take care not to set up colonies if humans explore. There might be other solutions but we have to solve this first, in one way or another, before we think about colonizing the galaxy if we want to do it in a safe way for both ourselves and the galaxy.
For more on this see this section in my Case For Moon First
The exponential growth calculation I refer to is here: Why ET Populations Can't Continue To Expand For More Than A Few Millennia
Not possible. It’s one of those things that may seem convincing if you don’t know much about it. The reasons they give for thinking it is a hoax are easily disproved, e.g. even in a city, with brig...
(more)Not possible. It’s one of those things that may seem convincing if you don’t know much about it. The reasons they give for thinking it is a hoax are easily disproved, e.g. even in a city, with bright lights, do you think you’d get any stars in photos including street lights and a night sky? Not without special processing. Well the Apollo photos included not just street lights, but a bright sunlit surface of the Moon in clear sunlight brighter than any light we get on Earth naturally. Of course the photos don’t show any stars in the night sky. Well almost never - there is one photo of Venus taken from Apollo.
Venus over The Apollo 14 LM - they worked out later that that’s where Venus was in the sky, as seen from the Moon.
Similarly, the flag was jostled when they planted it - and in the light lunar gravity, suspended from a horizontal support attached to the vertical pole (yes they did plan in advance to make sure it would hang in the lunar gravity) - of course it swung back and forth for some time.
The shadows pointing in different directions are exactly what you expect from shadows on an uneven surface - again easy to check.
Then the rocks are covered in microscopic micrometeorite impact craters - and they keep answering new questions that we pose using new tools to measure things they never thought of measuring back there. Lunar regolith also contains nanophase iron in every particle of dust. There is no way we can simulate all this now, never mind with the technology they had back then. We have so called lunar soil simulants - but they are only crude approximations of the real lunar soil. By way of example, because of the nanophase iron, if you put real lunar soil into a microwave, then it melts as easily as you can boil water, because of all the nanophase iron which catches the microwaves. The simulant doesn’t do that
Also you can see the astronauts pick up a rock, put it in a bag, and then scientists examine it back here, and it matches the location they picked it up from. So it’s not robotically returned material, and the Russians only returned a fraction of a kilogram robotically.
And, what do you think was launched in the huge rockets that took off from Florida, if not the astronauts? Plenty of eye witness accounts of them. Perhaps you think they carried astronauts to secret bases on Mars? This Mitchell and Web sketch covers that amusing dichotomy:
See also my answers, and the other answers to:
which go into more details
I enjoy writing the answers, sometimes share them with my friends, enjoy the research and often use them as a basis for articles for my Science20 blog and kindle booklets.
I actually came here from ...
(more)I enjoy writing the answers, sometimes share them with my friends, enjoy the research and often use them as a basis for articles for my Science20 blog and kindle booklets.
I actually came here from wikipedia originally, where you can spend many hours on an article, and often get no appreciation at all. I got a lot of work on planetary protection removed from wikipedia in one short period of a week or two by some editors who felt it shouldn’t cover planetary protection of Mars in articles on colonization of Mars, except briefly as “a challenge to be overcome”.
That’s even though I wrote that material in response to a request on the page itself to expand that section of the article. That’s still the situation as you can see here: Human mission to Mars The two sentences there about forward and backward contamination of Mars are all that’s left of a section I wrote on the topic there in response to a request from other editors to expand on a very short stub about issues with human colonization of the planet.
There’s rather more about planetary protection now in Colonization of Mars but for a while after all that planetary protection material was deleted, there was nothing about it in that article at all. I wrote that section but only a long time after the previous material there was deleted.
After a lot of fuss, I was permitted to work on the article on Planetary protection which is perhaps 50% my work, and the article on Interplanetary contamination. This was a matter of internal politics, the work removed was well cited. They didn’t mind it so much there (though the editors who deleted most of my work tried to rewrite and delete much of those two articles too, until another editor stepped in and stopped them), but they didn’t like to see it included directly into the articles on human colonization
I also got sections on prospects of microbial life on the surface of Mars written by myself and other editors deleted, and to this day, the article Life on Mars says that surface microbial life is impossible, which is way out of date, about eight years out of date ,predating Phoenix. I’ve tried to correct that, just with comments on their talk page, and got labelled as a troll for doing so
They just don’t read the citations. It’s political again I think, the problem being that if Mars does have habitats for surface life, then you have to take much more care for human missions, and may not be able to land humans on the surface at all without risk of contaminating them with Earth life, which makes the evidence of potential surface life habitats there something that colonization enthusiasts, some of them, would like to ignore. Though of course for many the search for life is one of the main points of interest for Mars, so it is then exciting to think that this life may be present even on the surface.
They come up with decade old arguments to disprove this research, which they find convincing, even though the research suggesting the possibility of present day surface habitats on Mars is much more up to date than the old articles they use to try to refute it. And of course it’s not the place for wikipedia editors to do peer review of the research and decide what to mention and what not. But my arguments to that effect on the talk page are just ignored.
So it was with great relief that I was able to write here freely, not just cited research also, I can also offer my own personal view on the matters too, which you can never do in wikipedia, and suggest innovative solutions etc. Also other editors can comment on your answers, can write their own answers, can suggest edits, but they can’t just remove your answers because they don’t like them or because they don’t fit their political agenda or their ideas about the future.
Wikipedia doesn’t have upvotes, just an option for other editors to thank you for an edit. With that background, truly, I just don’t care how many upvotes they get, except that it gives some idea of which ones are most interesting to readers here, which may sometimes be an incentive to write them up as articles on Science20.
I enjoy the comments on my answers here, and often comment on other answers too, and engage in conversations about the topics. And it’s great when my answers get corrected too. I don’t think many of my answers have been downvoted, at least not enough downvotes to get hidden. Do you get notified of downvotes? If you do then I haven’t had any.
This BTW is a summary I did and occasionally updated on the status of present day research into the possibility of present day life on Mars. I proposed it as a wikipedia article but they won’t accept it. I did it as a kindle booklet instead for now, as well as publishing it on my Science20 blog.
And as a free online booklet: Places on Mars to Look for Microbes, Lichens, ...
I ended up writing here instead, on my Science20 blog, also invited to David Livingston’s “The SpaceShow” radio program and podcast, where I’ve been guest four times now. Robert Walker | The Space Show
If my work hadn’t been deleted from wikipedia probably none of that would have happened and I’d still have been writing occasionally on wikipedia and that would probably have been all I did. But it’s much more fun writing here and on my science20 blog, and it’s lead to many things that wouldn’t have happened otherwise.
So that’s my background, perhaps you can understand how with that background I really couldn’t care less about upvotes, except as a sign of interest in one of your answers. But if you don’t get any upvotes I don’t think that means that people are uninterested. It might not get many views in the first place and there are many things that can lead to someone reading an answer, and though interested in it, not upvote it. I read many answers and only occasionally upvote them, and when I do so it is rather random I think. It means nothing if I read an answer here, and forget to upvote it.
MORE ON WIKIPEDIA
There are battles raging behind the scenes on wikipedia talk pages often about things so tiny you wonder how anyone could be passionate about such a topic: Wikipedia:Lamest edit wars
Although much of it is good, there is some that is definitely politically motivated. It’s good in some areas, e.g. things like dates, times, orbital elements etc, generally get those right. Also high profile political articles tend to be reasonably balanced, e.g. the articles on climate change are good because they have had many experienced eyes on them. But low profile articles can often be quite biased. They often represent the views of a single editor, who may be the one who does nearly all substantial edits of the article and may sometimes not be willing to listen to anyone else in that topic area unless they agree with their views (and may reverse their attempted edits, easy to do in wikipedia). Not that they are intentionally biased, I don’t think, just that they can’t see their own biases and think they are defending the integrity of wikipedia - at least the ones I’ve come across. And I think often not interested in reading citations in detail or they misunderstand them without realizing that they have misunderstood.
I think quora helps a lot there, as instead of trying to present all viewpoints from a single perspective in an “objective” article, you get answers from people who actually hold those viewpoints themselves, just saying things as they see it. Often speaking from their own experience too, where it’s something experiental. E.g. an airplane pilot talking about how to fly a plane and what all the controls mean. Even if an article on wikipedia is written or edited by a professional airplane pilot, they would not be permitted to say so in their article, or to include details from their own personal experience.
I don’t think that was fully worked out, and the whole thing was not put through peer review but was only published on the day of launch. I think that if the astronauts had become sick, they would ...
(more)I don’t think that was fully worked out, and the whole thing was not put through peer review but was only published on the day of launch. I think that if the astronauts had become sick, they would have been removed from the quarantine facilities immediately. It’s hard to see how they could do anything else ethically unless they had clear evidence that they were indeed sick due to the presence of extra terrestrial life.
They decided to remove the crew from the command module using divers in a dinghy, then airlifted out using a helicopter, just because the machinery wasn’t functioning properly to lift the module out using a crane as originally planned. The main risk there was that the astronauts could have got seasick as they waited for the crane to get sorted out. That was an immediate breach of quarantine as some of the lunar dust must surely have got into the sea at that point. So, given that they broke the quarantine so easily for relatively trivial reasons, they would surely have taken them out of quarantine if they had truly got sick.
It was just a token guesture anyway at that point as they had already exposed the ocean to lunar dust at that point.
Gene Cernan covered in dust in the lunar module after his moon walk. See The Mysterious Smell of Moondust. It got everywhere and smelt like gunpowder (curiously, nobody knows why to this day). This is from a much later mission, and they were no longer being quarantined - I’m just sharing this because it is a good image of an Apollo astronaut covered with lunar dust.
Some of this very fine dust surely got into the ocean when they opened the command module door for Apollo 11 - and after that the rest of the quarantine procedures were mainly token guestures.
As C Stuart Hardwick, says in his answer, they didn’t know about extremophiles and they also didn’t know about ultra microbacteria or the research that shows that extra terrestrial life could be even smaller, way beyond optical resolution. They just didn’t know enough microbiology or have enough science to do the job adequately. But also, how could quarantine work anyway against unknown microbes? It gives no protection from microbes that have a latency period longer than the quarantine period, or ones that are harmless to humans but harm our ecosystems.
One example I like there is, what if they had returned a photosynthetic lifeform that was more efficient than any Earth based photosynthesis? We have several different forms of photosynthesis on Earth including the red haloarchaea that turn the red sea red, which work in a similar way to our eyes, not producing oxygen at all. So there may be other forms of photosynthesis we don’t have on Earth and what if some lifeform got returned to Earth which is more effective at photosynthesis than any Earth lifeform, and got into the sea and replaced the green algae which are the basis of many of the foodchains in the oceans and also produce much of the oxygen we breathe? What if they produce some other gas, which is harmful to us, or are inedible to sea creatures, or produce toxins that make sea food harmful to us? Something like that would show up no problems at all in quarantine probably. It might even need to evolve a bit before it can become prolific in the Earth’s oceans.
Or what if it is just an all round more efficient metabolism and (perhaps after a period of proliferation and adaptation) replaces microbial Earth life in almost all niches? But again is toxic to us or just doesn’t produce the organics we need for food?
So, I think there is too much emphasis on quarantine even today as a way to protect Earth from extraterrestrial life. It would do almost nothing to protect against an unknown hazard. It’s only effective when you know what it is that you are quarantining against and why you are doing it, and what the latency period is before symptoms manifest and you know that it is a hazard for humans, rather than any other lifeforms on our planet.
As for the 1960s procedures they are more interesting today as valuable lessons about what can go wrong when you try to do planetary protection. And we were just lucky. If there had been any microbes on the Moon hazardous to the environment of Earth the measures we took wouldn’t have done much to protect Earth. By then they already thought the chance of life there was very low. They knew that the Moon had no significant atmosphere and no liquid water on the surface, though there was still a possibility of life in moist layers some tens of meters below the surface and possibility of dormant life on the surface.
With billions of people potentially affected, you have to take precautions even if the chance of anything happening is tiny. They did token guestures of planetary protection, which showed that they had given it some thought and cared about it, but they didn’t actually do much materially to protect Earth.
It was written in assembly language by a team lead by Margaret Hamilton (scientist) - see Her Code Got Humans on the Moon—And Invented Software Itself.
The code was written in 16 bit “words” which included one ...
(more)It was written in assembly language by a team lead by Margaret Hamilton (scientist) - see Her Code Got Humans on the Moon—And Invented Software Itself.
The code was written in 16 bit “words” which included one parity bit for simple error detection. Apollo Guidance Computer
The total memory available (no separate “disk space”) was 4 kilobytes of read-write memory and 72 kilobytes of read-only memory.
The programs in the permanent memory were entered in by hand by weaving wires through donut shaped magnetic cores. If the wire went through a core, it registered a 1 and if it bypassed the core, it registered as a 0.
How they entered the programs into the core memory
Here is a photograph of Margaret Hamilton, chief programmer, next to the stack of code in printed form:
Margaret Hamilton, standing next to listings of the Apollo Guidance Computer source code.
You can actually read the code itself, see The code that took America to the moon was just published to GitHub, and it's like a 1960s time capsule
The computer itself looked like this:
Astronauts used it by pressing the “verb” button, entering two digits, then the “noun” button then another two digits and pressing the enter button. There were other buttons on the display they could press as well.
And there’s an online emulator of the computer in javascript here: Online Apollo Guidance Computer Simulator
And see also The "Rope Mother" Margaret Hamilton
Actually, many styles of music world wide don’t fit into that twelve tone framework at all. Historically it developed gradually, started with a seven tone system which developed from the historical...
(more)Actually, many styles of music world wide don’t fit into that twelve tone framework at all. Historically it developed gradually, started with a seven tone system which developed from the historical Greek modes. This was constructed using pure fifths to make a chain of seven notes.
The five and seven note systems based on pure fifths are "moments of symmetry" in Erv Wilson's terminology - because they have only two step sizes. So for instance with the pentatonic scale the two step sizes are the minor third and the whole tone.
The next moment of symmetry after that, using pure fifths in a single chain to construct your tuning, is the twelve tone system, the so called “Pythagorean tuning”. It ctually has two sizes of semitone - the diatonic and the chromatic semitone Semitone - Pythagorean Tuning
They added the "black keys" gradually - the first medieval keyboards only had what we call the "white keys" and the first "black key" to be added was Bb which to this day has its repercussions in German notation where they give B the letter H and Bb they call B dating back to the times when the B key was the only one that came in two different tunings.
After you add all the semitones, still the "circle of fifths" doesn't meet up so it's clear the system is incomplete. Another disadvantage of the pure fifths system is that if you follow the cycle C G D A E, the C - E there is sharper even than the twelve equal major third, so much so that in medieval times they treated it as a dissonance which had to be resolved.
Eventually in Western music, musicians settled on using the twelve notes, but tuning them in different ways. As major and minor thirds began to be important in music, the extremely sharp third in Pythagorean tunings was unacceptable to musicians, so they developed Quarter-comma meantone, a system that has some of its major thirds pure, while its fifths are flatter than in twelve equal.
Then as composers began to modulate more and more to distant keys in the same piece of music, that became unacceptable too because quarter comma meantone is biased towards particular keys. Some of the intervals in the more distant keys (a long way up or down the cycle of fifths) in quarter comma meantone are tuned in strange ways. Modern composers sometimes use these intervals but it’s not what they wanted to play in those days so they just had to avoid those keys. To play in more distant keys, they then developed various Well temperaments. This is what Bach explores in his “well tempered clavier”.
Then - in a parallel development, which only lasted a short time, before that time, there was a period of experimentation with more than twelve notes to an octave, with Vincento's 36 note to an octave Archicembalo an example. Some of those 36 notes were used as duplicate keys, and one of its tunings used an approximation to 31 equal which gives you a good approximation to the pure major thirds and to quarter comma meantone, but is also a circulating system of 31 distinct keys instead of the 12 most of us are used to.
He used two manuals, tuned differently. Other instrument makers of the time used keyboards with split keys so you had many accidentals between the white keys.
Here is a performance of one of Vicentino’s own compositions played on a 24 tone harpsichord tuned using an extended meantone system.
You can also hear a recording of a live performance of Vicentino played on a reconstructed Archicembalo, with many exotic transitions here Vicentino's enharmonic madrigals
31 equal is a natural system to use if you want pure major thirds, frequency ratio 5/4. But it’s not so good for pure fifths.
If you continue beyond the 12 notes using pure fifths, you get another “moment of symmetry” at 17 notes but with very uneven sizes of note. If you keep going all the way to 53 notes you get a moment of symmetry with the intervals tiny and almost the same size, closely approximated by 53 equal.
Turkish and Arabic music gives another parallel development, also derived from the Greek modes, but instead of a circulating system of many keys, they ended up using a wider variety of intervals instead, patterns of intervals with different tunings, which they call Makams in Turkey. It’s a complex sytsem which sometimes has the same note tuned different ways depending on the context (a bit like our melodic minor, but using microtones rather than semitone differences of pitch).
In their theory, they divide a whole tone into 9 commas, based on the Pythagorean comma - and they have 24 pitches as a selection from a 53 tone system, but that’s only in theory, in practice they use many more pitches than that through pitch inflections of the notes and they don’t play exact 53 equal pitches either. So that is just a theoretical thing, and they aren't tuned exactly in that way and other systems with many more notes per octave are also explored for this music, for instance Ozan Yarman has explored a 79 tone system and made an instrument to use that for Turkish makam music. 79-tone qanun recipe
You can compose in any number of equal notes per octave - Easely Blackwood did compositions in all of them from 13 through to 24
“This tuning contains diatonic scales in which the major second spans three chromatic degrees, and the minor second two. Triads are smooth, but the scale sounds slightly out of tune because the leading tone seems low with respect to the tonic. Diatonic behavior is virtually identical to that of 12-note tuning, but chromatic behavior is very different. For example, a perfect fourth is divisible into two equal parts, while an augmented sixth and a diminished seventh sound identical. The Erude is in a sonata form where the first theme is diatonic and the second is chromatic. The development modulates entirely around the circle of nineteen fifths. An extended coda employs both diatonic and chromatic elements.”
Basically any twelve tone system has to be a compromise. The fifths are by themselves already impossible to tune in all the keys to pure 3/2s, though you get a reasonable compromise for those in twelve equal. The major thirds are much harder to tune because you want three of them to stack to an octave in a twelve tone system and if you try that using pure Major thirds, they they are way out, After stacking three pure major thirds, the gap between the last note and the octave is the diesis of 41 cents, nearly half a semitone.
To start with the well temperaments were quite a bit different from twelve equal and favoured some scales more than others. Gradually they became more even as music got more adventurous, but Chopin still was using keyboards tuned in well temperaments. Nowadays of course they have smoothed out so much that nearly everyone plays in twelve equal.
So - in short - it is a historical thing. A bit like the qwerty typewriter. The twelve tone system does have some special properties - it is a moment of symmetry for the Pythagorean tunings, with only two sizes of semitone if tuned to pure fifths, and those so similar in tuning that you can to a reasonable approximation just tune them the same if you are only interested in fifths and don't mind a slight beating of your fifths easily noticeable in sustained chords.
It's not so good though for major and minor thirds, and when it comes to septimal chords e.g. bluesy minor it can't do them at all, just very rough approximation, and when you get to neutral thirds based on the eleventh harmonic it can't even approximate those. The 24 notes to an octave quarter note system used by many modern composers does a good approximation of neutral thirds but it can’t handle the septimal ratios.
So - it is a compromise, limits your palette, which for some composers may be a good thing, less to think about. Also of course many composers worked with it so a lot of past history to draw from. Also any tuning system has it's own particular "feel" to it, so you can't say that because the twelve equal system gives poor approximations to the major and minor third that it is "wrong" - it is just itself, it is just part of the "feel" and "gist" of twelve equal. You get used to thirds that beat strongly and it just feels natural and that's how they are, they are kind of lively and exciting - and for musicians who are highly trained and used to twelve equal it can come to the point where any other tuning of the intervals actually feels wrong.
So, it is one of many different tuning systems, an interesting one but by no means the only one to use.
For a very different approach to tuning you might like to have a listen to Gamelan music - each "Gamelan" is a whole orchestra of instruments, constructed as a single large instrument, and each Gamelan has its own tuning - like every orchestra tuned in a different way.
There is a lot of music out there if you know where to look. Also, many modern composers composing like that too, e.g. take a look at the Xenharmonic Alliance if you belong to facebook, new compositions posted there in many different tunings every day.
Universal scales?
The twelve tone system is a good one, and a flexible one - but just one of many good tunings. There doesn't seem to be much evidence of universality as there are many musical cultures with completely different tuning systems and nothing resembling the twelve tone system. Historically, only the "western European" musical culture developed it as the main system of tuning.
However, as Aston Motes said in his reply, the pentatonic scale is more or less universal.
Pervasiveness of Pentatonic scale
That depends what you mean though - if by pentatonic, you just mean any five note scale (including for instance approximately five equal tuning) that's not saying so much. But the major and minor pentatonic is also found in many different traditions - not necessarily a Pythagorean pentatonic scale tuned to pure fifths, but approximately the same tuning.
Some examples given here
Further Pentatonic musical traditions
You find it even amongst the earliest bone flutes, some old enough that they might have been made by Neanderthals. They come in different tunings, however some of them have finger holes which seem to be set to a pentatonic tuning.
EARLY MODERN MAN OLDEST FLUTES AND MUSIC
So - the major and minor pentatonic might be the nearest claim there is to a universal scale. Amongst humans anyway.
Universal scales cross species?
Amongst animals that sing - such as birds - few of them sing in anything like any of our musical scales, at the micro-tuning level - it's true that musicians like Messian transcribed bird song to the twelve tone system but most of the original songs don't really fit that tuning if you listen to them in detail, it is just an approximation to what they sing.
So - the pentatonic scale might just be universal to humans as a species rather than to musical expression generally, not sure how you could find out unless we some time encounter a musical civilization with beings of another species. In "Close encounters of the third kind" the beeps used to communicate with the aliens in the film use four of the five notes of the pentatonic scale. It's perhaps our best guess at a "universal scale" but you couldn't really say that there is good evidence to expect musical ETs to use it.
It's fun to speculate about what we might have in common with a musical ET if we ever encounter such.
The individual musical intervals such as a fifth, major and minor third, octave, etc, have good claims to universality, since they are based on pure frequency ratios. and occur almost universally in human cultures, especially the octave. Since they are musically and mathematically simple to describe, they might perhaps be expected to be shared even with musical ETs (similarly to maths).
So you could probably expect a musical ET to relate to the individual intervals that make up the tune, but that might be as far as you could go. At least judging by other animals and birds on the Earth and how they use musical intervals, their musical culture might well use them in different ways from us.
I think the background to this is a kind of mythological version of the Gaia hypothesis - the idea that if you introduce life to any planet that has a capability for sustaining life, that it will a...
(more)I think the background to this is a kind of mythological version of the Gaia hypothesis - the idea that if you introduce life to any planet that has a capability for sustaining life, that it will automatically turn into a second Earth, almost like Earth. But a bit of reflection will show that this can’t be the case. Earth itself is going to become uninhabitable half a billion years from now, when it becomes too hot for anything except the most heat tolerant thermophiles
Grand Prismatic Spring, Yellowstone National Park, home to heat tolerant thermophiles. Eventually as the sun gets hotter, only heat tolerant thermophiles will survive on Earth - though that’s half a billion years into the future, long enough for humans to evolve a second time from the simplest of multicellular microscopic lifeforms.
Say we find some exoplanet that hot, then adding life to it will not turn it into a second Earth. It may have life already, but though habitable, it’s not very habitable. It’s even possible that Venus has life in its upper atmosphere and if so, this life has just lingered as the planet got hotter, and has not kept it habitable for less acid and heat tolerant lifeforms.
In the case of Mars, it probably started off nearly as habitable as Earth, but lost much of its atmosphere, and also got colder. Being further from the Sun, it never was warm enough for trees to grow, unless it had powerful greenhouse gases such as methane making up much of its atmosphere.
So, it may have habitats for psychrophiles - cold tolerant microbes. They’d also be salt tolerant, able to withstand high levels of perchlorates and use them as food. But that doesn’t mean that if we seed it with extremophile photosynthetic life like Chroococcidiopsis that it will become habitable to Earth life. Indeed the first effect would be to cool it down even further as the microbes convert CO2 into oxygen so removing what little warming effect its atmosphere has. But probably there isn’t enough liquid water for it to have a significant effect on its atmosphere. It may be there already indeed, being one of the few microbes that might possibly both survive a trip to Mars on a meteorite lasting for a century or more and to find a habitat it can survive in once it is there.
If you could magically transfer Earth’s atmosphere and ecosystems to Mars, they wouldn’t survive long as it would be far too cold, with not even much by way of CO2 to warm up the planet. Longer term there’s no continental drift and so though the volcanoes are still active on geological timescales, there is so little activity there we haven’t yet spotted anything on the entire planet, same land area as Earth. This means there is almost no CO2 returned to the atmosphere so long term it will lose carbon into carbonate rocks, Perhaps this has happened already. There’s very little by way of CO2 in the form of dry ice on Mars. Possibly enough to double its atmospheric pressure, not enough to get to ten times its current pressure to start a runaway greenhouse effect.
And then CO2 is poisonous to humans. You couldn’t even survive in a CO2 atmosphere at Earth pressure with an oxygen supply, but would need a full closed system with both oxygen and nitrogen supplied to you, or you’d die of CO2 poisoning.
Then you need nitrogen too.
And if you sort all that out, you still have the temperature issue. Even with an Earth pressure atmosphere of CO2, Mars would be too cold for trees. Converting all that CO2 to organics (covering Mars with a thick layer of the organics taken out of the atmosphere) might take as long as 100,000 years by natural photosynthesis, and it would cool the atmosphere down even further.
You need to make artificial super powerful greenhouse gases continuously, converting many cubic kilometers of fluorite ore into greenhouse gases every century, using a network of hundreds of nuclear power stations - or reflect extra sunlight to Mars with planet sized thin film mirrors. Both are examples of mega-engineering.
Anyway - it’s a case of ecoengineering, and so far we have no experience of that at all. We are bound to make mistakes. It was tricky enough to get the small closed system habitat biosphere II working - closest approximation we have in experiments to a complete ecosystem set up in miniature. They gave up because of an unexpected interaction with the concrete. That could be fixed in future closed system habitats, and we can already achieve artificial closed systems consisting of just humans, hydroponics, and plants to create nearly all their food and oxygen - but we are nowhere near the situation where we can confidently set up a new planet ecosystem, and predict everything that could go wrong with an entire planet.
This idea, perhaps based on Lovelock’s Gaia, this popular mythology is that life will automatically make Mars into a second Earth. The idea, in science fiction at least, is that it will just happen by itself with a bit of a helping hand from humans.
But even for Earth, probably there was a large element of luck as well. I think the weak Gaia hypothesis is generally accepted that there are many cycles that help keep the Earth’s climate more or less in balance at present. But what about the evolution of photosynthetic life at just the right time to remove CO2 from the atmosphere when the Sun was warming up, to cool down Earth enough to compensate? How can that be due to Gaia? Surely it is just coincidence that this happened at just the right time, and if it happened later, the Earth would get far too hot, and if sooner, it would have got too cold for a while in the past. Either way, the Earth might easily have been uninhabitable for anything except microbial life for billions of years, and we would probably not have evolved.
But instead, we were lucky, it continued at more or less the right temperature, with a few hiccups, for billions of years. David Waltham in his “Lucky Planet” argues that this is to a large part coincidence, and I think there’s something in that myself.
The Gaia hypothesis explains many things but I don’t think it explains why oxygen producing CO2 removing life evolved at just the right time to cool down the Earth.
Then what would all this do to the search for life on Mars? Even if Mars is sterile, it’s a wonderful opportunity to find out what happens on a planet with an atmosphere, liquid water (probably) even in small amounts on the surface, organics, and no life. There’s also the possibility that we find life precursors there, replicating chemicals without a cell wall, say, or autopoetic cells, metabolism without exact replication, or other life precursors which the theorists have suggested. Something like that would be very vulnerable to introduction of Earth life, and of exceptional interest, helping to fill in huge gaps in our understanding of evolution, of the possibilities for exobiologies and what we might find on exoplanets.
I think the thing to do is to start with small scale closed systems in space habitats, like the Stanford Torus or habitats in lunar caves. Also study exoplanets. Look at ideas for terraforming Mars, but it’s nowhere near time to start on them, if it ever will be. There’s enough material in the asteroid belt to build habitats with a total land area a thousand times that of Earth, so we can create the equivalent of a thousand planets just using materials from the asteroid belts. Building a single large habitat for 10,000 people is something you could complete in a decade or two. Terraforming a planet, if it is possible at all, would take at least a thousand years according to the most optimistic estimates.
Meanwhile the Moon has many advantages over Mars. It actually beats Mars on many comparisons of resource utilization too. I think the Moon is the place to go at least until we have tens of thousands, maybe millions in space. Study Mars robotically, also possibly from orbit telerobotically and through flybys. But send humans to the Moon for now, and to Mars orbit, not to the surface. And I think it is far far too soon to think about trying to transform Mars. After all any attempt to transform a planet is likely to take at least a thousand years with present day technology. How can we know what our descendants a thousand years from now will want? I think it is very likely that they would prefer a pristine Mars as it is now, to study especially if it has unusual and unique biology or life precursors. I think it’s unlikely that if we do clumsy attempts to try to terraform it, bound to fail, that they will look back at those attempts and feel we left the planet to them in a better shape than we found it, and far more likely to wish they could somehow undo what we had done to the planet. Leaving it “as is”, studying it, exploring it from orbit via telepresence (which gives a much more immersive experience also), that all leaves our futures open, and we can make decisions about what to do next later on once we know a lot more about Mars.
See also my
Trouble With Terraforming Mars
Imagined Colours Of Future Mars - What Happens If We Treat A Planet As A Giant Petri Dish?
To Terraform Mars with Present Technology - Far into Realms of Magical Thinking - Opinion Piece
Why Nukes Can't Terraform Mars - Pack Less Punch Than A Comet Collision
Our Ethical Responsibilities To Baby Terraformed Worlds - Like Parents
How Valuable is Pristine Mars for Humanity - Opinion Piece?
Well at the time of the lunar landings, they already knew that the Moon had negligible atmosphere and as a result, they knew there was no standing water or running water on the surface. It just cou...
(more)Well at the time of the lunar landings, they already knew that the Moon had negligible atmosphere and as a result, they knew there was no standing water or running water on the surface. It just couldn’t survive for more than minutes in those conditions (depending on its thickness) based on well understood physics.
However they couldn’t rule out life completely. Our knowledge of the Moon was very limited and they thought that there was a possibility that life evolved on the early Moon and had survived through to the present a few tens of meters below the surface, where, they thought, there might be some moisture.
Indeed the earliest lunar probes to the Moon were sterilized to avoid contaminating any potential habitats below the surface. See Carl Sagan’s very early paper on this topic: Biological contamination of the Moon (November 16th, 1959 written soon after Luna 2 - the first successful impact on the Moon by a Russian spacecraft). By the time the Apollo astronauts went to the Moon, I think most would have said the chance of life there was tiny, but still, there was enough of a possibility that there was general agreement that they needed to take some protection measures.
However the actual quarantine precautions they took were more of a token measure, to show that they cared, and didn’t actually protect Earth at all, really. I watched at the time (via television) and like just about everyone else, I had no idea that anything was amiss. But Carl Sagan (who was an expert in astrobiology, many don’t realize this) was dismayed to see how they took the astronauts from the lunar module to the waiting ship. They just opened the door of the lunar module as it bobbed around on the ocean, passed in the decontamination suits, the astronauts then put them on and tumbled into the dinghy and then were airlifted out by helicopter. Their original plan was to lift the entire module onto the ship using a crane but there was something wrong with the crane, so rather than keep the astronauts bobbing about in their command module and probably getting seasick while they fixed it, they opened the command module in the open sea and used this approach instead.
The astronauts remarked on how the very fine dust got everywhere, inside their spacecraft.
Gene Cernan covered in dust in the lunar module after his moon walk. See The Mysterious Smell of Moondust
They could smell the fine dust (smelt and tasted like gunpowder) which was floating in the air of the cabin. (Nobody quite knows why it smells like gunpowder as it doesn’t contain any substance resembling gunpowder).
Definitely some lunar dust ended up in the ocean at that point. So, if there had been any life in the lunar dust, it would have ended up in the ocean, the worst possible place to contaminate with extraterrestrial life, right then and there. After that, the quarantine was really just a token measure.
There were several other breaches of quarantine, and these quarantine attempts from the 1960s are now regarded as more important for their historical value, for what it teaches us about how not to protect Earth and what can go wrong, rather than as examples of how to do it. In any case, we now know of microbes such as the ultramicrobacteria far smaller than anything they knew about then, and from works on limitations of size, experts think that extra terrestrial microbes could potentially be even smaller, perhaps of the order of tens of nanometers in diameter, which makes them far too small to see with an optical microscope (with diffraction limited optical resolution of 200 nm). We could only see them with an electron microscope or similar. We also know of extremophiles with capabilities to survive vacuum, heat, cold, acid, ionizing radiation, and many other conditions, which they didn’t know about back then. So in the 1960s, even if the precautions had been peer reviewed and they’d got all their best scientists to work on the best possible way to do it, they just didn’t know enough microbiology back then to design adequate precautions to protect Earth .
Also, the quarantine facility wasn’t that well sealed. Buzz Aldrin says in his “No Dream is Too High” (page 150) about their time in quarantine:
“The unit was comfortable, but there was little to do and nowhere to go, so we got bored in a hurry.
One day, I was sitting at the table staring at the floor, and I noticed a small crack in the middle of the floor, with tiny ants coming up through it! Hmm, I guess this thing isn’t really tightly sealed, I thought. Imagine, if we had brought some sort of alien substance back with us, those ants could have contracted it and taken it back out to the world!”
Also, the three weeks quarantine was not established through peer review either. The quarantine regulations were published on the day that Apollo 11 launched to the Moon which didn’t give anyone else any possibility to review and change them. This would not be permitted nowadays.
Actually latency periods can be of the order of decades for some diseases, as Carl Sagan pointed out, taking the example of leprosy. Even rabies now has a quarantine period of several months.
As well as that, if the astronauts had become seriously ill in quarantine - well I think you can be reasonably confident that they’d have been taken out right away and into a good hospital to treat them. After all the mission planners breached quarantine just to get them into the ship quickly instead of waiting until the crane was fixed. If they thought it was that important to avoid astronauts experiencing the discomfort of seasickness, then surely they would have taken them out of quarantine into hospital immediately if there was any sign that their lives might actually be in danger.
It’s also not at all clear that you can ethically keep someone in quarantine when you don’t know for sure if there is a risk to everyone else and when their life is in danger. Even if they volunteer to do so themselves, and sign some agreement or whatever, to say that they volunteer to stay there no matter what - if they then were dying and you could save their lives by taking them out of quarantine into hospital, how could you leave them in quarantine, unless you had clear and certain evidence that it was a hazard to everyone else to take them out? I don’t see how you can.
Then, there’s much more to quarantine against, not just microbes that could somehow impact on humans. Anything that could impact on the algae in the sea, or plants, or animals, would also need to be contained. A symptomless human quarantine would not guarantee that the microbes are safe for all Earth life.
So - it’s hard to see actually what they could have done by way of effective protection of Earth with the technology they had at the time, except just not send humans to the Moon. We are just lucky that the Moon had no lifeforms of any sort (as far as we know) and the returned lunar dust and rocks are of no danger to Earth. I can imagine that other extra terrestrials in similar situations might visit a nearby moon or planet and bring back lifeforms that make them extinct, or damages their ecosystem. There’s nothing biologically implausible about that, as the Nobel prize winning microbiologist Joshua Lederberg was perhaps the first to make clear.
I think actually that there is still a very remote chance of liquid water deep underground on the Moon - that’s because of new research that suggests that it wasn’t entirely dry when it formed, combined with indirect evidence of volatiles escaping from the interior and freshly surfaced small regions that could be due to gases released from deep underground. The center of the Moon is still very hot, and if there are indeed volatiles below the surface, from a lower “wetter” layer of rock that condensed first, perhaps there could also be liquid water at some depth. Some think there could be ice below much of the surface of the Moon at a depth of some meters. That’s a minority view, but we don’t yet know enough to rule this out.
However the lunar surface is thought of as totally sterile, and for purposes of planetary protection is classified as category II meaning you don’t have to take any special precautions for rovers or human visits, just document clearly what you do and any crashes too, so that others can take account of any contamination you may introduce when analyzing lunar samples etc.
So, there’s no need to take any special precautions for sample returns from the Moon and no planetary protection issues for Earth or the Moon with sending astronauts there - that’s the scientific consensus of many experts. But there is for samples returned from further afield. The lunar quarantine regulations have been rescinded and anyway would not be considered adequate nowadays, even if they had been applied exactly as specified, so something new is needed.
The most recent ESF study on how to deal with samples returned to Earth from Mars recommends returning them to a new type of facility which has to contain them right down to the level of GTAs as well as the smallest size of microbe they think is possible using unknown extra terrestrial biology. Their recommendations are that it has to be capable of containing particles well below the optical resolution limit of 200 nanometers (ideally it shouldn't permit release of particles over 10 nanometers in diameter and shouldn’t permit release of 50 nm particles under any circumstances).
In other words, the facility has to be able to contain particles only visible with electron microscopes or similar. This is well beyond the capabilities of a normal biohazard level 4 containment facility where the aim is to contain known hazards of known size and capabilities. The problem is that it has to be able to contain any conceivable extraterrestrial biology. That’s particularly hard to ensure when we don’t have any examples yet of any extraterrestrial biology at all. So how can we be sure that the facility will contain it? Only by building a very expensive facility that protects against all conceivable possibilities, even the most unexpected.
It also has to protect the samples against contamination by Earth life, even by a few amino acids.
Also, there's all the extra legislation to pass. Margaret Race looked at it. You'd be astonished, there are many domestic and international laws, needing to be passed - which were not needed for Apollo because the world nowadays is legally far more complex. After reading her paper, I think it could easily take well over a decade just passing all the laws even if everyone agrees and there are no objections, and surely longer if there are objections.
I think myself that by far the simplest and also safest solution is to either
Our first sample returns from Mars or Europa are not likely to happen until the late 2020s, and by then we will surely have easy ways to send hundreds of tons to GEO. Indeed, my suggestion is just a modification of one suggestion of a way to return samples to Earth - that you send a spaceship up to rendezvous with the return capsule and return it to Earth. I’d go along with that as far as retrieving the sample in a spacecraft launched from Earth to meet it - but after that, I think it is far simpler to just keep that spacecraft above GEO while we examine the sample more closely. Perhaps a few thousand kilometers above it, far enough so that there is no chance of cross contamination with any operations going on in GEO. Then send instruments up to it from Earth and study it there. Almost anything can go that way, except for investigations using giant particle accelerators, and for those, you can sterilize any samples returned to Earth.
Then either you find out quickly that the samples are harmless, or this becomes the basis of a telerobotic facility to study extra terrestrial life in orbit. That way you don’t have to build the half billion dollar receiving facility on Earth - which might turn out to be entirely unnecessary - and you don’t have to spend a decade or two passing new laws to permit the sample return (which again might be unnecessary laws if the material is harmless and requires no precautions as happened with the Moon) as all of this can be done within the existing legislation. And it’s also safer for Earth, you don’t take even the slightest of risks (you can return to above GEO using trajectory biased orbits that never intersect with Earth). With a facility on Earth, even if perfectly designed to contain the material at the nanoscale level, even if you are correct that the building will contain all concievable forms of exobiology, there’s the chance of terrorist action, natural disasters, even crash of the helicopter or train transporting samples to the facility, negligence or human error by its operators, etc etc.
In my view, it’s just simpler all round to keep the samples in orbit above GEO. And don’t send astronauts there until you know what is there and that it is safe for them. If it is harmless, you find out first, and if not, it’s a case of a known hazard by then, you can then make properly informed decisions about whether it is safe to return to Earth and what precautions are needed, or whether you need to continue to study it in orbit.
As an example of a discovery that would prove that the sample is harmless to Earth life - if it consists of autopoetic cells or some precursor for life, you might decide quickly that it is no match for Earth life which would just eat it up. While in the other direction, if it was some exotic form of informational polymer, perhaps TNA, or PNA, a more robust form of DNA, or more compact cells, better at photosynthesis or whatever, you might decide that considerable caution is needed before returning it anywhere near Earth itself, and it might continue to be safest to just study it in robotic facilities above GEO.
LEO is no good here, as anything in LEO will eventually fall back to Earth as it is still in the Earth’s atmosphere. Above GEO is the ideal location as it is as far as you can get from either the Earth or the Moon in terms of delta v with over 1 km / sec needed to get to a geo transfer orbit to hit Earth and a similar amount of delta v needed before it can hit the Moon. While satellites in GEO itself or in the graveyard orbit a few hundred kilomters above it have very small relative velocities and even if you get a runaway chain reaction of the satellites destroying each other through the Kessler syndrome, the debris won’t go far, so your facility a few thousand kilometers above GEO will still be safe.
See also Why quarantine won't work - protecting Earth, and humans sent to Mars, from Mars life (if it exists) in my “Case for Moon First”.
There is one way it can be visible for the purposes of a story. Some objects approach Earth very slowly. This is a theoretical trajectory of a “Mini moon”
As you see, it orbits Earth several times f...
(more)There is one way it can be visible for the purposes of a story. Some objects approach Earth very slowly. This is a theoretical trajectory of a “Mini moon”
As you see, it orbits Earth several times following a complex path, and then finally heads off again. Simulations Show Mini-Moons Orbiting Earth
Very unlikely to hit tiny Earth. This actually happened to a real object back in 2006 2006 RH120, approached Earth, orbited it for some months in a complex fashion, then headed off again. For this to work, it has to be in a one year orbit almost identical to Earth’s.
This was its orbit:
So, make it an object like that, but 9 km in diameter, and you can have it visible to naked eye for as long as you want - what’s more it would approach sometimes, go away again and fade so you can’t see it at all, approach again and then eventually hit.
I’ve no idea how likely this is. And there are no 9 km objects doing this - I know they have a complete census of all 10 km NEOs and not very likely they missed such an interesting 9 km asteroid, they are at around 90% for the 1 km ones too.
But - with a bit of artistic license, I don’t see why not, for purposes of a good story :). Alternative universe type story, in a very similar Earth to ours except for that asteroid…
He accelerates out of the starting blocks at 9.5 meters per second squared, which amounts to nearly 1 g, (0.97 g). The Physics of Usain Bolt's World Record 100-meter Dash. At the end of the race wh...
(more)He accelerates out of the starting blocks at 9.5 meters per second squared, which amounts to nearly 1 g, (0.97 g). The Physics of Usain Bolt's World Record 100-meter Dash. At the end of the race when he pulls ahead of all the other runners, he actually is running more than a kilometer per hour slower than he was at 80 meters. And the other 100 meter sprinters slow down too, by similar amounts, at the end of the race. It is just that after slowing down he is still faster than any of the other 100 meter runners. This is an analysis of his 9.58 seconds run.
Analysis of Bolt’s 9.58 WR | The Science of Sport
And a more detailed one here:
He hit his peak speed at 50 meters and maintained it all the way to 80 meters. See Beijing 2008: Men 100m race analysis | The Science of Sport
So, though he seems to be running faster towards the end of the race, because he draws ahead of all the other runners in the race, it’s actually that the other runners are all getting tired and slowing down and he keeps going and doesn’t slow down so much.
There are ideas to fire supplies into orbit from guns of various sorts, and generally the idea is to do it for things like water, or fuel which are much more valuable in orbit than on Earth, and ca...
(more)There are ideas to fire supplies into orbit from guns of various sorts, and generally the idea is to do it for things like water, or fuel which are much more valuable in orbit than on Earth, and can withstand just about any level of acceleration.
We also have electronics able to withstand high levels of acceleration which could be used once it’s in orbit. I don’t think we are “close” to this, but it doesn’t seem impossible to me.
For passengers and more fragile cargo, then there’s the idea of a maglev train that lets you accelerate most of the way into orbit along a track, which is not that different from the idea of a railgun. This is a mega structure, not unlike the Space Elevator, but with the difference that it could be built using existing materials, while the Space Elevator requires materials we may have some time in the next few decades.
The estimated costs are enormous of course, but not quite as huge as you might imagine perhaps. You would need a lot of demand to pay back the costs, but they could reduce the costs to orbit hugely. And of course - as mega structures, they would be very visible huge things, and permanent or semi permanent, so there is the question of whether that’s visually acceptable. You could build them over remote desert areas or the sea to deal with safety issues. I don’t see this as likely any time in the very near future. But if you take a larger timescale of many decades or centuries, who knows, especially if we have large numbers of people, and industry in space by then.
LAUNCH LOOP OR MAGLEV TRACK TO ORBIT
A Maglev train is a natural for acceleration to super fast speeds of kilometers per second - as it has no on board fuel, gets all its energy from the track so no need to accelerate the fuel. And also as there is no physical contact with the track, friction can be almost zero.
First, there's the idea of some researchers for a long MagLev track which accelerates a spaceship inside an evacuated track up the side of a mountain, continuously until it reaches orbital velocities when it leaves the tube. They think this could cost $20 billion to build and it would cost about $50 per kilogram to get cargo into orbit, and the project would take about ten years to complete. For details see Maglev track could launch spacecraft into orbit.
That's for cargo.
You could send passengers too, but would need a longer railway line, and slower accelerations, would take longer to build and cost more.
Maglev track could launch spacecraft into orbit.
This track is magnetically elevated
Then more exotic, is the idea of a kind of "moving walkway" Maglev track, that elevates into the sky under centrifugal force". There are many ideas like this, but this is one of the simplest and most practical of them.
The loop continually moves around like a moving walk way from one end station to the other and back again. The loop is elevated away from the Earth by the centrifugal effect of the moving walkway. This centrifugal effect raises the centre portion of the track to about 80 km. Then, much as before, the vehicles accelerate along the track until they reach orbital velocity, and release themselves from the track to launch into orbit, See Launch Loop (wikipedia)
A surprising thing about these dynamic structures held up purely by kinetic energy of rapidly moving liquid or particles - there is so much energy in the system, and so little loss, that if you stop supplying energy, they lose it only gradually. It's rather like energy stored in a flywheel or a gyroscope. Stop supplying energy and the flywheel keeps spinning; it doesn't just stop instantly.
They deserve close attention, and are not as way out and crazy as you might think when you first encounter them.
For other ideas like this, see the Dynamic Structures section in Wikipedia.
This is a section from my: Projects To Get To Space As Easily As We Cross Oceans - A Billion Flights A Year Perhaps - Will We Be Ready?
In addition to the technological readiness point in Robert Frost's excellent answer, great analogy of a ski jump - I think we shouldn’t be focusing on colonization anyway. At present in space we ar...
(more)In addition to the technological readiness point in Robert Frost's excellent answer, great analogy of a ski jump - I think we shouldn’t be focusing on colonization anyway. At present in space we are at a similar situation to the nineteenth century explorers visiting Antarctica. It’s a major challenge just to stay alive there. Our astronauts also need to be disciplined or they will die just as the earlier Antarctic explorers died of frostbite, and running out of food. Like Scott’s party that died within a short distance of provisions.
Cairn marking the spot where Scott’s party died on the return from their attempt at the South Pole.
We are nowhere near the point where we should think of setting up a colony in my view. We simply shouldn’t send 100 people at a time into space anywhere, so I’m dead set against using anything like the Elon Musk’s Mars Colonial Transporter for transporting people in large numbers anywhere in our solar system right now. It’s just far too dangerous. Most would die.
It’s like nineteenth century explorers sending 100 colonists at a time to Antarctica in an attempt to set up a city of a million there after doing calculations that seem to prove they could survive and be self sufficient (perhaps based on analogies of the Eskimoes and calculations of the numbers of whales, and penguins there were in Antarctic waters in the nineteenth century and the example of Shackleton’s crew that over wintered on elephant island living off the sea life).
We need careful astronauts who take many precautions, and who are good at responding promptly to instructions without question in such a dangerous environment. The astronauts make it look easy but every time they do a spacewalk, it is something that anyone without months and years of training could easily die from. And even then accidents happen such as the Italian astronaut who nearly drowned in his own spacesuit.
See also Spacesuit 3005 tries to drown an astronaut again and of course the famous Apollo 13 incident, also the time that a Progress supply misison collided with MIR in 1997. Progress M-34. We are bound to have many more of these and only disciplined, and highly trained astronauts can avoid disaster in those situations. And even they won’t always.
But there’s a larger question. Is that what we should be doing anyway - to turn as much of our galaxy as we can, into the closest possible (very poor) approximations to Earth that we can manage? I don’t think we should, not at this stage. We may miss much of value if we do that. It’s not at all clear that, even taking a totally human centered approach, that Mars or Proxima Centauri b is most useful to us as a po0r imitation of Earth.
They may be valuable to us as is. For instance Mars may have unique lifeforms that need the planet as it is now to survive. They may be vulnerable to introduced Earth life too. One of the most amazing things we could find in the field of biology would be some form of early life, to fill in the big gaps in our understanding of how life evolved. There are many ideas of what such lifeforms could be like, but we don’t have any examples of them. There is no currently extant life on Earth that could have evolved just from non living chemicals.
Modern life must have had many precursors because even the most primitive DNA based cell is far far too complex to arise from chemical precursors in one go. Also, our experiments in laboratories don’t get us anywhere near those early life forms either. We can’t create an ocean in a laboratory and leave it to evolve for hundreds of millions of years, as happened on early Mars as well as on Earth.
So, Mars just possibly might have lifeforms like that. It’s quite likely indeed, if you think that modern life took a fair while to evolve, given that Mars had only a few hundred million years to evolve life. Perhaps RNA based life, using the RNA based ribozymes rather than DNA and protein based rhobosomes for instance. That’s one suggestion for what we might find on Mars that came up in discussions of the smallest possible sizes of lifeforms after the ALH84001 discovery of a meteorite with structures that seemed like living cells but were too small for modern DNA based life. Or something more primitive, autopoetic cells - just metabolism but no exact replication yet. Or just replicating complex chemicals with no metabolism. We could find any of those on Mars. Or, no life at all, but a chance to study a planet with only chemistry and no life - again an opportunity we won’t have if we introduce Earth life to it.
Or it could be an advanced lifeform - microbial most likely or lichens, but still advanced, as we don’t know whether Earth life evolved unusually slowly, or unusually rapidly, or what drives evolution, and it’s possible that the difficult conditions on Mars as it cooled down actually drove innovation and evolution. It could go either way. Life like that could be vulnerable to Earth life also, just because it’s not evolved to cope with Earth life, or vice versa.They might not recognize each other as life.
I think it’s easy to see that early life would be vulnerable to introduced Earth microbes. They would just gobble it up as a food source and it would have no defences chances are, as after all, modern life must have made similar early lifeforms extinct on Earth long ago. And - there are many suggestions now of possibilities for liquid water on Mars, places where life might survive not just deep underground, but on the surface too, various habitats that may exist just in the top cm or two above the permafrost on Mars. I did a survey of the scientific literature for these a couple of years back, which you can read here: Are There Habitats For Life On Mars? - Salty Seeps, Clear Ice Greenhouses, Ice Fumaroles, Dune Bioreactors,... You may be amazed at how many ideas for habitats there are now. Not just the well known warm seasonal flows.
(Some people will say at this point that Mars life must be like Earth life because of meteorite impact transfer - but first that’s just theoretical, not proven, also it’s not at all easy for life to transfer to Mars, can only happen after the very rare giant impacts on Earth and then most lifeforms that could survive on Mars would not survive the transfer there, the life also has to find a suitable habitat after impact, not easy with present day Mars, and the bottom line is that so far, though experiments suggest that it is theoretically possible, we don’t know if any life has been transferred in either direction yet).
So, it’s the same for anywhere where there may be life including Proxima Centari b, the first thing is to find out what is there and learn about it. And introducing Earth life may turn what is an amazingly interesting planet into a poor attempt at a copy of Earth. Because - we don’t know how to terraform planets, and there is much that can go wrong. Proxima Centauri b, like Mars and more so, is nothing like Earth and Earth’s ecosystem transferred there would surely not survive. Intense radiation. One side always baked with the sun, other side dark. There may be lifeforms that live there especially if it has volatiles and a magnetic field to protect their atmosphere from getting stripped away. But that doesn’t mean that Earth’s ecosystem would work there.
Our ecosystem is dependent on many particulars of the way Earth works to continue. It is balanced for a particular distance from the Sun, particular levels of sunlight, composition of the atmosphere with oxygen in it. Transfer it to Mars and it wouldn’t work, it would be far too cold, trees couldn’t survive even in the tropics, and there’s no continental drift so not enough volcanic activity to return CO2 to the atmosphere.
Similarly transferred to Proxima Centauri b, again it wouldn’t survive, just a few hardy microbes I imagine would be all that’s left after a few centuries.
But there’s another yet larger issue. Do we want to colonize the galaxy? Just supposing we could set up a colony on Proxima Centauri b. Well that then means that potentially we can set up a colony anywhere in our galaxy, as stars like this and planets like that are very numerous. If we go ahead and do it then this is starting an unstoppable process that within a million years would fill the galaxy with humans.
That might seem great if you are into human colonization and you might imagine it like Star Trek or Asimov’s “The Foundation” novels. But we know that nobody else has done this yet, not an uncontrolled unstoppable expansion into the galaxy, or they’d be here already (as it’s extremely unlikely that another technological species evolves to technology within the same one million year period as humans, over the timescale of many billions of years). So perhaps that gives some pause for thought.
I think there’s a reason for that. If we fill the galaxy with humans, they won’t necessarily be careful peaceful people like the Star Trek adventurers. Or even the likes of the Borg.
The ones that grow in population most quickly and set up the most colonies most quickly would be the ones that fill the galaxy. And even though the colonization would probably start off as humans, these wouldn’t just be humans. If someone makes a genetically modified human, or a modified “uplifted” animal, or a machine, or cyborg (animal or human / machine hybrid) or modifies some extraterrestrial lifeform they find to make it more intelligent say, or more aggressive, into one that can fill the galaxy more quickly, that’s what will win the race. Also the ones that destroy other human colonies would probably win this race too. The sky would be full of human descendants and creations around every star, but - the most aggressive and expansionist of them would be the ones that win this race. If it is uncontrolled that is. And once colonization spreads to planets say a hundred light years from now, we’ll only know what was happening there a hundred years ago. Once it fills a galaxy, then there could be developments that we will know nothing about for a hundred thousand years. And if they are able to travel at close to the speed of light, then creatures or self replicating machines, or whatever, which have been developing for 100,000 years without our knowledge could approach us at close to the speed of light from thousands of light years away and we’d have almost no warning until this wave of creatures / machines arrives - either on Earth or on whatever other peaceful colony world there might exist by then.
So - I think we need to think carefully here before starting an exponential expansion into a galaxy, and I think any extraterrestrial intelligence would too. There may well be ways to do this safely. If so I think it probably involves an approach that has minimal impact on the galaxy, which might be why the galaxy seems to be totally untransformed and pristine. I think that’s exactly what you’d expect even if it is filled with intelligent species, if those species are forward looking (and perhaps the ones who are more reckless in character never are able to sustain space capabilities for any length of time).
The safest thing to do in terms of this long term future is to explore the galaxy robotically. First, send lightweight probes to all the nearby stars and their planets. Then we can also find ways to do safe replication of machines, once we can do that, tested in our solar system first, we can fill the entire galaxy with robotic sentinels around every star and planet. They can then tell us what they find, be our eyes and ears in the galaxy.
That’s something we can certainly do with Proxima Centauri b. We may be able to send tiny chip sized spaceships there at a fifth of the speed of light, so they get there in a couple of decades.
Meanwhile, for humans, I think the obvious place to begin is the Moon. Not Mars. We aren’t ready for that yet, and Mars is too valuable for us at this stage as a pristine planet that may possibly have native early life. I think we absolutely have to study Mars as it is now before considering transforming it, especially accidentally.
But the Moon - it’s perfect. It actually turns out to be more habitable than Mars in many ways. It is now thought to have resources we could use such as ice at the poles. Unlike Mars there is some possibility of commercially viable exports from the Moon other than ideas and intellectual property - which Elon Musk thinks is the only viable export from Mars. With the Moon we may be able to export metals, ice to LEO, we may be able to make computer chips and solar panels for space use, using the high grade vacuum there, far better than we can achieve at reasonable price on Earth, may also be our spaceship manufacturing center in the future for interplanetary spaceships since they don’t need to be built in small sections and sent up into orbit to be joined together - without an atmosphere and in the light gravity, you can just build the whole thing and launch it into orbit in one go. It’s a good place for maglev style railways again because of the high grade vacuum. It’s got caves, we know for sure, and there is evidence suggesting these caves could be up to kilometers in diameter in the low gravity there and some may be over 100 km long. That would make the volume inside one of the lunar caves as large as a typical O’Neil cylinder.
There is much of interest in the Moon and it is barely explored. I think this is where we should send humans at present. Robots first, lots of them, to explore the Moon. The first choice for a base may not be the best, we need to go there to look, also there is much of interest on the Moon just to find out from Earth using robots such as the caves, the polar ice deposits, questions about geologically young features on the Moon, search for those platinum deposits that Dennis Wingo thinks may be there as a result of impacts by metal rich asteroids including a large differentiated core of an asteroid 100 km in diameter that hit Earth in the early solar system. Anyway I could go on for a long time about the benefits of the Moon as a place to send humans.
And, we can experiment on the Moon with setting up habitats there. It’s got enough by way of volatile resources probably (still to be confirmed) to support a city of a million there. I calculated that there is probably enough water there for everyone in a city of a million to have as much as there is in one lane of an Olympic swimming pool - that’s a lot of water for a space colony. So plenty for first experiments in closed systems. With those we need to start small also I think, first ISS sized habitats, then larger ones, then maybe kilometer sized cities and space colonies, and even then I think we’d be nowhere near the stage where we can consider transforming an entire planet into a habitat. Further into the future if we import ice from the rest of the solar system we could cover the surface of the Moon with greenhouses and cities, if that is what we choose to do. Or we could build many habitats in space, spinning for gravity. There’s enough material in the asteroid belt alone to build habitats with a total land area a thousand times the land area of Earth, using the model of a Stanford Torus for them.
But even then, I wouldn’t ‘say go there to colonize right now. That is still like sending humans to colonize Antarctica in the nineteenth century. We still have no thoughts of colonizing Antarctica, though we have many people there, into the thousands especially in summer. It may be the same on the Moon. Or we may set up colonies there. I think it is just too soon to know yet.
Also right now I think our top priority has to be to protect and to save Earth. It is by far the most habitable place for humans in the solar system. Even with mega engineering, you’d have to strip away 99% of the atmosphere including all the oxygen, all of its oceans, most of the ice sheets also, remove its magnetic field somehow, and it would still be more habitable than Mars because it’s warmer, closer to the Sun apart from anything else. There’s nowhere else in the solar system remotely as habitable as Earth.
As Carl Sagan said in Pale Blue Dot
"The Earth is the only world known, so far, to harbor life. There is nowhere else, at least in the near future, to which our species could migrate. Visit, yes. Settle, not yet. Like it or not, for the moment, the Earth is where we make our stand."
I don’t think any of the discoveries since then have changed that. We do have a few possibilities for life in our solar system now. But not places where we can settle long term with anything like the ease with which we can live on Earth. Here even in the coldest driest desert, you can go outside without a spacesuit, and don’t have to protect your habitat with meters thickness of material, or to contain an atmosphere inside with an outwards pressure of tons per square meter. It’s hard to beat that.
It’s true Earth won’t be habitable indefinitely in the natural course of events. But half a billion years is enough time for humans to evolve a second time from the very smallest multicellular creatures. Maybe half a billion years from now it will be a priority to set up habitats elsewhere, for whatever intelligent creatures have evolved on Earth by then. Or they might have other solutions to the future hotter sun, such as shades in orbit, or moving Earth outwards in its orbit by various methods - as those are possibilities that are not far out of our reach already.
Or it might be that for a space faring species, that habitats in space spinning for gravity are the way to go, rather than planets, in which case there wouldn’t be much needed to change even when the Sun goes red giant, just move habitats somewhat further from the Sun and add more shielding.
Or might be that with fusion power, that we are independent of the Sun and can set up habitats in the Oort cloud with fusion powered “minisuns” and we’d hardly notice a red giant sun - or rather whatever creatures evolve half a billion years from now, or perhaps humans with immensely long lifetimes, living for hundreds of millions or billions of years.
If so - the Oort cloud is a vast region to inhabit, not just the trillions of people you could have living in space habitats built using materials from the asteroid belt - you are going up several orders of magnitude from that. Probably quadrillions or more. Which brings up those issues of what happens if those settlers colonize the galaxy. The Oort clouds mingle, it’s thought, so if we colonize the Oort cloud, we are almost bound eventually to colonize the entire galaxy. How could they be restricted to just our solar system or to the Oort clouds around a few stars? Maybe by then we’ll have some insights and breakthroughs that make it possible to do it safely for us and for the other intelligent species in the galaxy (if there are such) and other lifeforms?
At any rate, that’s not our priority at present. For more on this see Case For Moon First - Gateway to Entire Solar System - Open Ended Exploration, Planetary Protection at its Heart - online whole thing available to read for free.
It is also available as a kindle book on Amazon.com
ONLY 8 STEPS MAX, AND NEARLY ALWAYS 7
The trick here is to use intersecting sets for the weighing process.
Weigh two groups of 33. As usual, two possibilities, that they weight the same or they differ.
...
(more)ONLY 8 STEPS MAX, AND NEARLY ALWAYS 7
The trick here is to use intersecting sets for the weighing process.
Weigh two groups of 33. As usual, two possibilities, that they weight the same or they differ.
Let’s look at the case where they differ.
In that case, you know the odd one out is one of these 66 pumpkins.
Choose 16 from each of the two groups of 33, and weigh that combined set of 32.
If it is equal in average pumpkin weight to either of the original groups of 33, then you know that it doesn’t contain the odd one out (because 32 with the odd pumpkin can’t have the same average weight as 33 with the odd pumpkin).
At this stage you have divided your 66 into four sets of
You know the weight of a + b, and of c+d from the first two weighings. You now know the weight of of a + c by your third weighing, and (by subtraction) you also know the weight of b + d.
Also, if b+d is equal in average pumpkin weight to either of the original 33, you know the odd one out isn’t in it, by the same kind of reasoning as before - a group of 34 with the odd pumpkin can’t have the same average weight as a group of 33 with it.
So that’s only three weighings so far.
Here let’s just write
So then, if a+ c
If a + c
If b+d
and if b + d
So after three weighings you are down to a set of 17 in the worst case, and at this point you also know the weight of a standard pumpkin, so you know if it is heavier or lighter than normal.
Now weigh 8 of those 17, and in the worst case it’s in the remaining 9
weigh 4, in worst case it’s in remaining 5
weigh 2, in worst case in remaining 3
weigh one of those and worst case, remaining 2
weigh one of those and you’ve got it.
So that’s 8 weighings in total though most often you’ll manage in 7.
What though if it the first two groups of 33 weigh the same?
Well in that case,after two weighings, you know it is in the final group of 34 but you don’t know if it is heavier or lighter. But you know the weight of a standard pumpkin from your first two measurements.
So now weigh 17 of the ones left. Either it weighs the same as 17 standard pumkips, so it’s in the remaining 17 or it is different. Either way, as before we are down to 17 pumpkins after three weighings.
Rest as before.
So, my answer is that you can always do it in 8.
Fastest solution with this method
If you get down to 16 in three weighings you will get there in 4 more steps. You then weigh 8, 4, 2 and 1 and you’ve got it.
It’s the same at any point along the process, even if you get down to 5 pumpkins and find it is in 2 of them instead of 3, or you are down to 3 and when you weigh one of those it turns out to be the odd pumpkin..
So, nearly always you get there in 7 weighings, but if you are unlucky, then it takes 8.
PROBABILITY OF GETTING THERE IN 7 STEPS WITH THIS METHOD
The easiest way to get the answer is to work out the probability of taking 8 steps.
It will take 8 steps if first of all it is in any of the four groups of 17 after three weighings.
Then in each group of 17 it has to be in the 2 left over after you weigh 8, 4, 2 and then 1 of them.
So that makes a total of 8 worst case pumpkin positions so the probability of it taking 8 steps is 8% and you are 92% certain of finding it with 7 weighings.
(Thanks to comments for putting me right on the number of pumpkins, and this is Dave Buchfuhrer’s suggestion for an easier way to find the probabilities)
Is this optimal or is there any solution that can find it in at most 8 steps with a higher than 92% chance of finding it in 7 steps, using any method?
UPDATE: OPTIMAL SOLUTION OF 7 STEPS GUARANTEED, 6 STEPS IN 28% OF THE TIME
Dave Buchfuhrer has used the same approach of intersecting steps, in an ingenious way and got it right down to 7 steps maximum and often times 6 steps, and proved that it is optimal. See Dave Buchfuhrer's answer to I have 99 pumpkins that all weigh the same and 1 weighs different, what is the minimum number of uses of a digital scale to locate the odd pumpkin?
Well, I think this is two separate questions. First, I don’t think we need to worry about any invasion, for the simple reason that if any alien wanted Earth they wouldn’t wait for us to evolve but ...
(more)Well, I think this is two separate questions. First, I don’t think we need to worry about any invasion, for the simple reason that if any alien wanted Earth they wouldn’t wait for us to evolve but would have taken it over millions of years ago. The solar system and entire galaxy would be full of aliens if they were an expansionist colonizing species. That’s because the chance of an alien evolving to technology at the exact same moment of time as us is tiny, over the billions of years since life first became possible in our galaxy, since at least double the age of our sun.
If there are aliens here, then they obviously are not the colonizing type. And I think there’s a reason for that - that any species that set out to colonize the galaxy would be a major risk to itself, filling the galaxy with evolving creatures and their biological and machine creations. It would be far worse than filling the galaxy with self replicating machines, because any of their descendants could do that, but they could do many other things also, and the most aggressive expansionist ones with the fastest increasing population would win the race to fill the galaxy. I think any ET would look at that prospect with dismay and figure out a way to avoid it. Because with even slow exponential growth, say a century before you replicate, you could fill the galaxy with your species, crowding every star system to the max, within a million years, at an average speed of a tenth of the speed of light at an average speed of a tenth of the speed of light.
So all those alien invasion scenarios thought a lot of fun I think are just not credible. Far more likely to be visited by robots,as that’s a safe way to explore a galaxy, if you take a lot of care in their construction and design, and they could be designed for safe self replication, which biological and evolving creatures can not be. Or if they are extra terrestrials, then somehow they have found a way through this.
Also - it’s extremely unlikely that we encounter extra terrestrials during a phase of rapid exponential growth, doubling every century or even less, because that just can’t last for more than a short period of time. I figured out that if we doubled in population every century, and the same size as the smallest humans, then by 13,000 years, we need to convert an entire galaxy into humans every 100 years. And within 18,000 years we need all the matter in the observable universe every 100 years. Just to make humans, never mind our life support. Make the doubling time 1000 years instead of 100 and the limit is still only 180,000 years before you need to convert the entire visible universe into humans every century to keep going.
For more on this.
Why ET Populations Can't Continue To Expand For More Than A Few Millennia
Why Only Very Young ET Civilizations Will Have Expanding Populations - Opinion Piece
So, I think there is almost zero chance of encountering extra terrestrials in a phase of exponential growth. That can last at most a few thousand years and certainly less than a million years unless they have a very very long lifetime. It is possible that we find exponentially growing ET populations that double only once every few million years because they have very long lifetimes perhaps and only reach maturity at age a few million. I don’t know how likely that is, just mentioning it as a mathematical possibility.
Apart from that, I expect them to have stable populations and not to be expanding when we contact them. And because our galaxy is not filled already with warring extra terrestrials, their population is likely to fill only part of it. Most likely just a few star systems I would guess, because otherwise - if there was a sub population that started to grow exponentially, it would be favoured over all the others and soon fill the galaxy. To avoid that happening, the region they occupy has to be small enough so they remain in communication with each other, to avoid exponential growth, probably due to choice, that to expand exponentially is unthinkable because of the consequences of doing so.
They could fill the entire galaxy if they had faster than light travel, or again, extremely long lifetimes and reach maturity after only millions of years. That way they could traverse the galaxy several times in a lifetime, and maintain a galaxy wide civilization with shared values preventing exponential growth.
But I think the most likely scenario myself is that we encounter ETs that are based around a single star system or a few star systems and have reached a stable population and don’t expand any further. And they may well travel throughout the galaxy, but only as explorers, not as colonizers. They may also send replicating robots ,or lightweight easy to manufacture robots throughout the galaxy. They could have robotic sentinels around every star in the galaxy if they wanted to.
I think that pretty much follows mathematically (as a probability argument of course) from the assumption that a technological intelligent species has evolved in our galaxy already (if they have), and that they aren’t here already.
Now if they made them invasions by future descendants and creations of humans, which came back to invade Earth after evolving a few hundred light years away for a few centuries, that would be plausible. Or even faster if they use genetic engineering, or cybernetics, the result could be some creature as different from us as the extraterrrestrials of movie fiction within a short period of time.
I go into this in more detail in my Case For Moon First - section on habitable exoplanets
So on the second part of your question - well first there’s no limit on size in the oceans, except limits on amount of food available, which is why the blue whales can get so large. If they had plenty of food available they could get even larger. Entertaining discussion here on stackexchange: Is there a maximum size an ocean bound creature could grow to?
And on land - well it depends on what you count as a single organsims. Perhaps they swarm, like locusts, and the swarm acquires a group intelligence, which the ETs think of as themselves? They spend most of their time “asleep” with their component parts as grasshoppers but from time to time they swarm and wake up as intelligent creatures. Or they could be thin biofilms that spread over square kilometers and slowly creep around. Or they could be gas filled creatures that fill their bodies with hydrogen and float in the skies.
For land animals of a more conventional type. Mike Taylor of the university of Helsinki has done a calculation based on physical principles and came to the conclusion that land animals should be able to reach a mass of between 100 and a thousand metric tons. So why haven’t they got that large? The largest dinosaurs, Brachiosaurus, only reached 80 metric tons. The Size of the Largest Land Animal. He thinks it is because of the problem of getting enough food to support such a large mass.
Meanwhile, larger animals need a larger area to live in at least if they need to east other animals or plants to survive - animals on islands are smaller, so if you get low populations, or larger areas to live on, there’s more potential for larger animals. Land Size Limits Body Size of Biggest Animals
One scientist, Simpson, has taken this further and tried to work out the average size of an extra terrestrial.
His basic argument is that smaller aliens will have larger populations. So if you assume that we are selected at random from all extra terrestrials, we are likely to be both smaller than average and also more numerous, because amongst all extra terrestrials there would be a few planets with billions of them, and many planets with only a few millions or less. It went through peer review and was published. He estimates that the average size of an alien, by species, would be the size of a polar bear, with much smaller populations than us. So if we make contact with extra terrestrials he’d expect large ETs with a population of millions rather than small ones like us with a population of billions at least originally on their home planet. He also works out that their planet is likely to be at most 20% larger than ours. It’s extrapolating a lot from a single sample, you can see the arguments here: The Big Alien Theory
I find those arguments not that compelling myself. After all I could use a similar argument to prove that I’m probably either from India or China as the two most populated countries in the world. But in fact I’m from the UK with a comparatively tiny population. There’s a less than 1% chance of being from the UK. And even less so of living in Scotland, which is where I live, and I live on a tiny island too, and when you get down to those levels, there are 2,667 on this island, so the chance of living on this island is only 0.00004%. Wherever you live you can do a similar calculation to figure out that the chance of living there is absolutely minute, so how can you exist :).
So why couldn’t we be a rare form of ET too? But it’s a fun idea and if we encounter just a few extra terrestrial intelligent species, we may be able to answer questions like that with actual concrete numbers. Will be interesting to see if they are huge like polar bears, or tiny like parrots. Grey parrots are nearly as intelligent as humans - amongst the most intelligent of all species studied, which shows that you don’t need a big brain or body to be intelligent. I don’t see why a parrot couldn’t evolve to be as intelligent as humans. So ETs could be at least as small as grey parrots.
So anyway - if Earth like creatures, well land animals may have an upper limit but it’s quite large, perhaps between a hundred and a thousand tons. No limit for sea dwelling creatures or various types of land based or airborne creatures with different biological organization from typical Earth creatures as the locust swarm idea shows.
And if evolved around another planet - and then moving around on Earth with some technology to make it possible to move in our gravity, well again no limit to their size, seems to me,
The answer is no, nuclear weapons are not nearly powerful enough to do the job.
The answer is no, nuclear weapons are not nearly powerful enough to do the job.
Anyway on the nuclear idea, in detail, see my What is the common scientific opinion about Elon Musk's plan to nuke Mars' poles to accelerate the creation of an atmosphere?
What we can do much more easily is to create habitats in free space or domed cities, or build settlements in the vast lunar caves if they exist - they might be kilometers in diameter and over 100 kms in length if the Grail data is indeed evidence of caves. I think we need to start small, first self contained closed habitats, then maybe larger habitats and caves, Stanford style toruses and there’s enough material in the asteroid belt to build habitats for a thousand times the land area of Earth.
However, Earth remains by far the most habitable planet in our solar system and will be no matter how badly we treat it. There is no way we are going to make it as uninhabitable as Mars, as that would involve removing most of its atmosphere, all its oceans and most of the ice sheets too, and Earth would still be far more habitable than Mars even after all that. And much of Earth is unoccupied sea or deserts.
As Sagan said in Pale Blue Dot
"The Earth is the only world known, so far, to harbor life. There is nowhere else, at least in the near future, to which our species could migrate. Visit, yes. Settle, not yet. Like it or not, for the moment, the Earth is where we make our stand."
And despite all that has happened since then, I don’t think any of the ideas for humans to Mars make it remotely as habitable as Earth. And actually surprisingly perhaps, in many ways the Moon is a more suitable place to send humans. It’s far more “habitable” than Mars in many ways when you look at it in detail, at least up to populations of thousands, and maybe hundreds of thousands or millions of people.
I think we are at a similar stage to the early adventurers who discovered Antarctica. Now we have thousands of people living there semi-permanently. But there are no ideas to colonize Antarctica although that would be far far easier than colonizing Mars or the Moon. I think that we should do the same in space, explore, go as adventurers, and find out what it is like there first. Whether we colonize would be for a later decision.
Well, this is an “alternative history” question. If we hadn’t had WWII, or indeed the later cold war, would we have gone to the Moon in 1960s or earlier or later? I think it’s impossible to say. On...
(more)Well, this is an “alternative history” question. If we hadn’t had WWII, or indeed the later cold war, would we have gone to the Moon in 1960s or earlier or later? I think it’s impossible to say. Once you start changing history, anything could happen - you can invent anything and say that might have happened, some genius who also has the resources to make it happen. This is a rather fun alternative history by an artist that has the first Moon landing on October 3rd 1725: Early Spaceflight: Tales From An Alternate History: Mr Timothy M Dooley. It’s rather sketchy and humorous in tone, but the basic idea I think is sound, that technology development did continue at a slow pace, say from the fifteenth to the eighteenth centuries, compared to the current pace of technology. What if something had happened to accelerate the pace of development of technology several centuries earlier?
However it would have happened eventually for sure. The ideas were there, and it’s hard to imagine a species possessing as much curiosity and a sense of adventure as humans not ever attempting to send something to the Moon.
So, it is just a question of whether WWII accelerated development or delayed it or made no difference. I think there is no way to know the answer to that. Indeed probably all of these are possible:
However what you can say for sure is that the ingredients for a lunar misison were there already, in the form of quite detailed plans to go to the Moon before WWII. For instance the BIS Lunar Spaceship from 1938. More details with images here: The British Interplanetary Society at 80 Years
By then they already knew from the work of the early pioneers that a single stage to orbit rocket was impossible with the then current technology, as it would have to have a propellant to dry weight ratio of 100. They just didn’t have anything strong enough to achieve that back then. They could make something that was structurally possible with the technology of the day by making it a 4 stage rocket - but then the downside is that (again using the materials available back then) the final payload to orbit is 1/10,000 of the mass of the rocket. So 10,000 tons to send 1 ton into orbit. (I’m basing all this on the figures in the Centauri Dreams article).
By comparison the Saturn V at 2,950 metric tons delivered 140 tons to LEO, a ratio of 21:1. It has 2.65 km / sec exhaust velocity for the first stage and 4.21 km / sec for the second and third stages. Rocket and Spacecraft Propulsion. So it would be a rocket that weighted four times the mass of a Saturn V and delivered less than a hundredth of the mass to orbit. Possible in theory, they’d gone from impossible to theoretically possible, but not very practical.
Robert Godard in his much earlier 1919 A method of reaching extreme altitudes suggested a continuous motor. He illustrates it like this:
Goddard’s “Continuous rocket motor” on left.
With an exhaust speed of 7,000 feet per second (2.1336 km / sec), he worked out that he could achieve a 602:1 ratio - that’s for escape from the Earth’s gravitational field not just to LEO. He figured out that if he could send 13.82 pounds of flash powder to detonate on the shadowed part of the Moon it would be easily visible from Earth, and he reckoned that a rocket weighing 8 to 10 tons would be more than sufficient.
So - if by “reach the Moon” you mean just hitting it, and having evidence that you succeeded, before the days of portable radio transmitters well I wonder if someone with a lot of political power, or very wealthy, or a lot of charisma getting support for their ideas, could have done that already in the 1920s using Goddard’s ideas? I don’t know how feasible his design is, but he did do it on basis of practical rocketry experiments.
The BIS moon rocket was worked out as a continuous rocket, but with a larger exhaust velocity of getting on for 4 km / sec. And instead of lots of stages, it had five stages but each of the five lower stages would consist of 168 smaller rockets in a hexagonal cellular array. So it is the same “continuous rocket” idea basically - that you discard each of those tiny rockets when it is empty, so achieving something much closer to the 1 to 100 instead of the 1 to 10,000 mass ratio. It included a worked out design for a lunar soft landing and then return to Earth using 45 medium motors and 1200 smaller tubes in the final stage, discarding them continuously.
The design was human rated with a very early plan for a lunar spacesuit:
I don’t know how practical that is - this is a design that has never been developed into a working rocket, AFAIK - do say in comments if you know of anyone who has tried a cellular “continuous rocket” or any other form of continuous rocket in Goddard’s sense.
For more details, see The British Interplanetary Society at 80 Years. They also worked on many other ideas for spaceflight including inertial guidance, and gravity assist maneuvers See also the comments here
You can also ask, could Wernher von Braun have designed the V2 without the work of these earlier rocketry pioneers. The answer surely has to be No.
It’s a fun question, although I think we can never know the answer in any definitive way, and not sure it really has one.
Well I’ll share a few opening sentences that tend to make my heart sink a bit as a programmer. I’m an independent software author so I don’t have any problems with others telling me what to do, but...
(more)Well I’ll share a few opening sentences that tend to make my heart sink a bit as a programmer. I’m an independent software author so I don’t have any problems with others telling me what to do, but often get requests from users. I’ve found ways to work with this over the years, so it’s much easier now than it was. But I used to get many frustrating questions, and still do sometimes.
My two innovations that make a huge difference are, first to have an online wish list. which you can read here. Bounce Metronome Pro Wish List
So since I created that, I’ve had much less by way of problems. If someone asks me to do something that involves several years of work, for instance, I write it up and put it on my wish list, and say there whether it is possible or not, and a rough estimate of how long it might take as in whether it is years of work, months of work or days of work.
And from time to time I get a chance to do some of the wishes, sometimes several of them in one go, as they are often related.
The other thing that helps is my Standard Disclaimer
In principle, yes perhaps, if you used many ICBMs and assembled the vehicle in orbit and you were really desperate. ICBMs are designed to send a lot of mass on a ballistic trajectory and are not ha...
(more)In principle, yes perhaps, if you used many ICBMs and assembled the vehicle in orbit and you were really desperate. ICBMs are designed to send a lot of mass on a ballistic trajectory and are not hard to convert to send less mass to LEO. The Denpr, a lightly converted ICBM can send 3.2 tons to the ISS. That’s easily enough to send a human into LEO though not all the way to the Moon - but we have loads of ICBMs, so if you sent up the other parts in advance (as in some of the early Apollo ideas to assemble in LEO).
However ICBMs of course are not human rated, which requires far lower levels of risk - it would be a dangerous venture to do only if really desperate - not recommended!
I don’t know about the cost, but other answers here are saying it can’t be done - it has actually been done already. ICBMs are designed to move a lot of mass in ballistic trajectories- but the same...
(more)I don’t know about the cost, but other answers here are saying it can’t be done - it has actually been done already. ICBMs are designed to move a lot of mass in ballistic trajectories- but the same technology is easily adapted to send rather lower masses to LEO and beyond. They can be converted to send small payloads to places as far away as the Moon at least. The Dneper is a lightly converted Russian ICBM which has been used for many satellite launches under an agreement to let it use some of its decomissioned ICBMs for peaceful use. It has the capability to send 550 kg on a translunar injection orbit which means it could crash that much onto the Moon and not that much more delta v for orbit around the Moon. I don’t know what that translates into for a lunar soft landing.
Lift-off of the Dnepr (rocket) - a Russian ICBM lightly converted for peaceful use.
As for humans - it can send 3.2 tons to the ISS. That’s three times the mass of the orbital module for the Soyuz TMA and almost enough to include the re-entry module as well. Soyuz (spacecraft)
So in principle, it can launch the mass of a human occupied spacecraft to LEO - if you were really desperate - but it would be dangerous - not human rated, humans need much lower failure rates unless you are willing to take a significant risk of death - and also - need for reliable life support etc. But in terms of mass - yes it could take a human + life support to the ISS, and if you sent the re-entry vehicle separately they could return as well. So if you had no concerns at all about safety, you could keep the ISS occupied with humans entirely using ICBMs I think. But don’t recommend it!
USE OF ICBMS FOR SMALL ASTEROID DESTRUCTION
Note that one Russian researcher has proposed an idea to use modified ICBMs as a last minute defense against smaller asteroids. The big advantage for this is that they use solid fuel and are designed so that they can be launched at a moment’s notice, unlike conventional rockets. If you had only a day or two, or a few hours warning, you couldn’t even launch a conventional rocket in time, but could launch an ICBM easily. However to blow up even a 50 meter diameter rock, I think they have nuclear detonations in mind.
It could be a reason to develop or retain nuclear weapons in a peaceful civilization that would never think to use them against its own citizens. Maybe many ETIs do have nuclear weapons for defense of their planets. But not so sure it is a good idea for Earth. I don’t think it is strictly speaking against the Outer Space Treaty myself, as what makes it a weapon of mass destruction is if it is intended for killing humans in large numbers. If the only intent is to destroy an asteroid to save humans - is that a “weapon of mass destruction”? It seems rather a “weapon for prevention of mass destruction” so long as it is used as intended. And it wouldn’t be stationed in space, only launched at need.
Anyway this is the idea here: Russia Wants to Turn Old Missiles Into an Asteroid Defense System
The smallest nuclear weapon the US has acknowledged existed weighed only 23 kg and had up to 1 kiloton yield. So given that the Dneper can take 550 kg to the Moon, does seem you could probably get ten 1 kiiloton nuclear weaons to an incoming asteroid on eacha ballistic missile. Special Atomic Demolition Munition
They didn’t actually say that they planned to use nuclear weapons, and ICBMS converted to use conventional explosives would be much less controversial. More speculations about the idea here Russia to modify Cold War missiles to destroy asteroids
If the relative velocity is kilometers per second perhaps just kinetic impact of 550 kg is enough? I don't know what you'd need to break up a 50 meter diameter asteroid. Many of them are probably "rubble piles" loosely held together. Perhaps a million tons for 50 meters diameter. 550 kg impactor so about half a ton, at say 20 km / second, that's enough to divert a million tons at about 1 cm / second. In theory that's plenty to separate out the pieces by of order of a kilometer or so by the time it gets to Earth, separations of kilometers. So it might not take much depending on how strong it is and how many pieces you can break it into, but there again it might not work at all. I think they'd need to test it first and there are plans to do that.
If we had good space telescopes such as the Sentinel, half a billion dollars, then we wouldn’t need this before long, as it would map nearly all of even the smallest asteroids within a decade or so, and if you know about the asteroids a decade or more in advance they are easy to deflect, no need for nuclear weapons. See my Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
It doesn’t, it’s a one way trip. It’s much harder to take off from Mars than from the Moon. There are planetary protection issues also for returning a spacecraft from Mars because there’s still som...
(more)It doesn’t, it’s a one way trip. It’s much harder to take off from Mars than from the Moon. There are planetary protection issues also for returning a spacecraft from Mars because there’s still some chance of present day life on the surface of Mars. We’d need to know it is safe to return or else sterilize the samples or make sure that anything returned is contained in such away that it can’t introduce Mars microbes to Earth. The risks from microbes from another planet released in the wild by mistake (if they exist) are similar to the risks from creating synthetic microbes in the laboratory not based on DNA and releasing them in the wild.
Okay, first I assume we are talking about a massive “supervolcano” eruption here, which happens rarely.
DISPELLING SOME MYTHS FIRST
First, it’s not at all certain the next eruption would be a supervo...
(more)Okay, first I assume we are talking about a massive “supervolcano” eruption here, which happens rarely.
DISPELLING SOME MYTHS FIRST
First, it’s not at all certain the next eruption would be a supervolcano - indeed it’s far more likely to be an ordinary eruption. There have been 80 non explosive eruptions in the last 640,000 years since the last supervolcano eruption. So that’s the most likely eruption by far. The last 20 of those were mainly lava flows. An eruption like that would disrupt activities in the Yellowstone national park itself, but likely to lead to few deaths and would not be catastrophic.
The average of the two intervals between the last three major past eruptions is 740,000 years and that’s the basis of the often quoted 1 in 740,000 chance of an eruption per year - or 1 in 7,400 per century. But that’s not a very compelling argument. Some scientists think that it may not erupt as a supervolcano again ever, that it may be winding down in its activity.
Also our understanding of these large volcanoes has moved forward and with modern understanding they think that if it did happen, the build up to a supervolcano in Yellowstone would be detected weeks in advance, perhaps months or years. Volcano Hazards Program YVO Yellowstone
WHAT IF IT DOES HAPPEN?
However what if there is a supervolcano eruption, what happens then?
“The term “supervolcano” implies an eruption of magnitude 8 on the Volcano Explosivity Index, indicating an eruption of more than 1,000 cubic kilometers (250 cubic miles) of magma. Yellowstone has had at least three such eruptions: The three eruptions, 2.1 million years ago, 1.2 million years ago and 640,000 years ago, were about 6,000, 700 and 2,500 times larger than the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mt. St. Helens in Washington State.” Yellowstone Volcano & Supervolcano
Grand Prismatic hot spring, Yellowstone National Park. Estimate of 1 in 700,000 chance of an eruption per year (1 in 7,000 per century). which could kill 90,000 people. See What would happen if Yellowstone’s supervolcano erupted?
But how much effect would it have? Well the largest supervolcano was 2.1 million years ago. If it was as large as that, it would be very extensive in its effects. If it was as large as the one 640,000 years ago it would also have extensive effects.
It’s hard to know from studying the geology as most of the ash would be eroded and not preserved. But a recent study in 2014 used a computer model to try to figure out what the effects would be, assuming 330 cubic kilometers of volcanic ash, dense-rock equivalent (so much more thickness for the ash itself).
It’s summarized here: Modeling the Ash Distribution of a Yellowstone Supereruption (2014) and the paper itself is Modeling ash fall distribution from a Yellowstone supereruption
This graphic from their paper shows how the volcanic ash would spread out over the US after such an eruption:
You’d get 1–3 millimeters thickness of ash right out to New York, which is enough to “reduce traction on roads and runways, short out electrical transformers and cause respiratory problems”. There would be centimeters of thickness over much of the mid west, enough to disrupt crops and livestock, especially if it happened at critical time in the growing season. and a meter of thickness out to quite a distance. The worst affected in their list of cites is Billings, population 109,000, which their model predicted would get an estimated 1.03 to 1.8 meters thickness of ash.
Artist’s impression here:
SUPERVOLCANOES WORLD WIDE
First, how likely are they? There’s an estimate here of the probability of a supervolcano happening anywhere in the world, and its effects. They say that there have been 42 supervolcanoes in the last 36 million years. However those came in two pulses and the rate varies between 22 events per million years and 1.4 events per million years.
The worst supervolcano in recent times was the one that created Lake Toba in Indonesia about 75,000 years ago. It’s 100 kilometres by 30 kilometres, maximum depth 505 metres.
Its ash covered Malaysia to a depth of 9 meters, there’s an ash layer from it in central India that’s still 6 meters thick today, and ash from it is detected as far away as Lake Malawi in East Africa.
It injected 2500–3000 km³ of debris into the atmosphere, and probably killed 60% of the human population worldwide, mainly through climate change impacting on their food supply.
That’s the picture generally, that the main effect is through global climate change, which reduces the temperature globally by about ten degrees C for a decade, together with the direct effects of the deposits of ash on their crops. A large supervolcano like Toba would deposit one or two meters thickness of ash over an area of several million square kilometers.(1000 cubic kilometers is equivalent to a one meter thickness of ash spread over a million square kilometers). If that happened in some densely populated agricultural area, such as India, it could destroy one or two seasons of crops for two billion people.
It would also mean that you can’t fly jets in the affected area for as long as the air is filled with ash, but that’s a minor effect compared with the rest of the devastation. As for the “noxious gases” such as sulfur dioxide - these mainly make a difference to the upper layers of our atmosphere by combining with water vapour to create clouds that block out the sun. It’s not like you’d have trouble breathing or anything like that globally - the amounts of gas are far too small for that, it’s manly the effect of dust and clouds on the climate.
We could prepare for this. With just a couple of years of warning, we could do large scale tests to work out which crops we’d need to grow in the cooler world for that decade, and store crops that are currently used to feed cattle or for production of ethanol, which would be enough to give us a buffer for the first year. In that way we would be able to avoid perhaps all deaths from starvation, so impact would be far less than on early man.
For details, see Extreme Geohazards: Reducing the Disaster Risk and Increasing Resilience from the European Space Foundation, and for the Yellowstone park eruption simulation,: Modeling the Ash Distribution of a Yellowstone Supereruption (2014) which summarizes Modeling ash fall distribution from a Yellowstone supereruption
This answer is based on those two sources, together with the USGS FAQ here Volcano Hazards Program YVO Yellowstone plus I used some details from the Wikipedia article on Lake Toba - you can check the citations there for more details.
I’ve copied this answer (with minor changes) to What really happens if Yellowstone erupts as a supervolcano, or if some other supervolcano erupts? by Robert Walker on Debunking Doomsday
Trump for sure. Hillary Clinton is somewhat more of the same, have had presidents like her before. As someone from the UK, at least she would continue to hold to the Climate Change agreement. The U...
(more)Trump for sure. Hillary Clinton is somewhat more of the same, have had presidents like her before. As someone from the UK, at least she would continue to hold to the Climate Change agreement. The US seems to be the only major power that has a likelihood of electing a head of state who denies climate change. That scares me because this is such an important time for action on the climate, and because without the US any agreements will be much weaker.
Trump also seems the last person you’d want in charge at a time when there is a lot of military instability in the world and concerns about nuclear weapons. He would be arrested probably here in the UK for inciting hate speech (the reason we had a petition to ban him from the UK). And to have an Islamophobe president at such a time as this seems a recipe for disaster.
Also, he has minimal understanding of foreign politics, and has made many gaffes. E.g. recently saying that Putin would not go into Ukraine, when he has already intervened there! Trump Insists Putin Isn't 'In Ukraine' And Would Never Invade It [Updated]
He doesn’t think before he acts, and after he acts, he just runs with what he said, and won’t back down but just digs deeper into whatever hole he has dug for himself (as with hs attack on a Muslim soldier's mother Ghazala Khan). That is surely not what the US wants from a president. He also seems unlikely to take the job seriously, but would just roll around like a loose cannon, reacting to situations rather than using diplomacy, and then digging the US deeper into trouble as the situation develops.
It’s a good thing the US constitution has some restraints on what a president can do or I’d be really scared.
As it is, well I don’t rate his chances high. He repeatedly shoots himself in the foot, shouts ‘Ouch’ and then blames his opponents for the harm he caused himself. I think that probably works better on the campaign trail than in an election, but if he does get in - surely he would not last more than one term once people see what the effect is of having him in power? I hope not. But 4 years of Trump as president would be bad enough.
I think at least part of the motivation is financial. A recent story lead to six million views of the amateur video in question which probably earned them between $8,000 and $22,000. See my World D...
(more)I think at least part of the motivation is financial. A recent story lead to six million views of the amateur video in question which probably earned them between $8,000 and $22,000. See my World Did NOT End On 29th July! AWFUL "Silly Season" Story - Journalists Please Be More Responsible The total revenue from all the Nibiru videos and books must be quite large.
And, for whatever the reason, some people are sociopath, they are either not aware or, or don’t care what effects their actions have on others like the ones who earn money from ransomware, or from telephone scams of elderly people stealing all their savings, and so on. For at least some, it’s an obvious out and out hoax for financial reasons. Others may partly believe it themselves.
And I think a lot of this is fueled by irresponsible reporting. I get messaged by people saying that all they can find are news stories saying Nibiru is real. The most recent debunking articles, apart from here on Quora, and my own ones on my website, are from 2012! There are lots of excellent debunking articles from 2012, but we need present day reporters to report the newest stories in the same way, and they don’t, they exaggerate the stories and play them up, if anything, with a few exceptions. Sometimes they add a final paragraph to say that scientists / NASA say it’s impossible - but with most of the article dramatizing the story, that doesn’t get noticed or is disbelieved by the more anxious readers.
And if you are interested, please sign my petition here:
Let's End Dramatized Reporting of "Doomsday" Stories - The Vulnerable Get Suicidal
First a bit of background. Gamma ray bursts are rare. They come in two forms, the long bursts and the short bursts. Long bursts come from supernovae, but only 1% of them cause these bursts, so they...
(more)First a bit of background. Gamma ray bursts are rare. They come in two forms, the long bursts and the short bursts. Long bursts come from supernovae, but only 1% of them cause these bursts, so they are very rare. Short bursts may come from colliding neutron stars. For details see The biggest explosions in the Universe. The beam is tightly focused in opposite directions so has to be beamed directly at us, so the chance of us seeing one that is focused on us is low. Typically the beam is focused to within a few degrees.
f it did happen, then it is a short lived event, from seconds up to hours at most (but the very long events are very unusual).
Gamma ray bursts are very focused, with beams in opposite directions, and would need to be pointed directly at us to cause harm - which is very unlikely. We have seen many gamma ray bursts in distant galaxies, but most are over a billion light years away, which shows how rare they are.
Short bursts are caused by colliding neutron stars. The beams they produce are so narrow that we only spot 0.4% of them. The bursts are so bright we can spot them billions of light years away and most of the ones spotted are over a billion light years away.Gamma ray bursts and pencil-thin jets
Our atmosphere would shield us from most of it except some strong UV light due to depletion of the ozone layer. You'd be shielded from that by a shadow and humans could shield against it easily, just use more sunblock when out of doors until the layer heals. Other creatures of course couldn’t use sunblock and might be more affected by it.
Ozone is depleted in the upper atmosphere and the resulting UV is the main thing that affects creatures at ground level. It also leads to increased ozone at ground level through the effects of the UV light, but this is not enough to be harmful to life. See How Deadly Would a Nearby Gamma Ray Burst Be?
The oxides of nitrogen produced in the upper atmosphere are not concentrated enough to have an effect at ground level and this new research shows that ozone levels at ground level are not high enough to be hazardous even for a very close gamma ray burst. So the main effects are from the UV. So if a gamma ray burst causes extinctions then it would be due to the increased levels of UV light at ground level until the ozone hole heals. But this is something humans can protect ourselves against easily. More about its effects in this paper
Researchers reported in 2013 that Earth might have been hit by a Gamma-ray burst in 8th Century (paper: Effects of Gamma Ray Bursts in Earth’s Biosphere) but this would seem a bit unlikely considering how rare they are. Later research that same year (2013) found that the increased levels of Carbon 14 and Beryllium 10 in AD 775 could be explained by a solar flare instead, see The AD775 cosmic event revisited: the Sun is to blame
PROBABILITY OF A GAMMA RAY BURST WITHIN 50 LIGHT YEARS (SAY)
The nearest likely gamma ray burst in the last billion years is 1000 parsecs away. But could we have a really close one, as close as say 50 light years away? Gamma ray bursts happen every 10,000 to a million years in a typical galaxy. The volume of the Milky Way, our galaxy, is roughly 8 trillion cubic light years and it has has 400 billion stars approx. (going by the higher estimates here).
The volume of space within, say, 50 light years is about 500,000 light years. So you’d expect it to contain 500,000 * 400 billion / (8 trillion) or around 25,000 stars.
Or for 20 light years, 33,510 cubic light years, then you get 33,510 * 400 billion / (8 trillion) = 1675 stars. We actually have probably around 150 celestial objects including white and brown dwarfs. Stars within 20 light-years. So that’s over estimating by an order of magnitude or so as we live far out in the thinner outskirts of the galaxy.
So anyway let’s overestimate throughout for a rough back of the envelope type calculation. So 25,000 stars out of 400 billion, and assume a gamma ray burst every 10,000 years and one in 100 of those (say) is pointed towards us. So that makes it a gamma ray burst pointed towards us and within 50 light years every (400 billion / 25,000) * 10,000 years, or every 160 billion years. So such a nearby gamma ray burst seems very unlikely.
Even at 50 light years, we’d be protected from most of the damaging radiation by the thickness of our atmosphere. It’s equivalent in mass to a ten meter depth of water. It would be rather similar to a nearby supernova. It’s too unlikely to get much attention in papers on gamma ray bursts, but there are estimates of the effects for a supernova. See What’s a safe distance between us and an exploding star? And for more details, the paper here: Could a nearby supernova explosion have caused a mass extinction?
They find that a supernova within 32 light years (ten parsecs) would not heat up Earth significantly, would not be bright enough to harm the ecology through the light alone. In the year after the event so you’d get as much ionizing radiation as you get normally in between a decade and a century. So significant but it doesn’t seem to be enough to be devastating.
It seems likely to be similar for gamma ray bursts, so the main effects would be on the ozone layer and on nitric acid rain - but we don’t need to look into this any more I think as the event is so very improbable.
WHY DO MANY PEOPLE WHO ANSWER THIS QUESTION SAY THAT WE’D BE TOAST?
I think many of the stories that circulate just ignore the effect of the Earth’s atmosphere. It’s equivalent to ten meters of water which is enough to block out most radiation. Also they forget about how rare they are. Typically they will be thousands of light years away from Earth, happen only a few times in a galaxy and the galaxy is 100,000 light years in diameter.
So basically they do back of the envelope calculations rather than reading the scientific research papers on the subject. It’s understandable that they forget about our atmosphere so easily. It doesn’t feel as if it is so heavy. The pressure is equalized inside and out. A bit like the way fish swim in the sea, we breathe the air and have no idea how much weight of air there is above us because we have the same amount of pressure outwards too and are in equilibrium with it.
When you drink water with a straw what actually happens is that you create a reduced pressure at the top of the straw and the weight of the atmosphere pushes the water up the straw into your mouth. If you had a perfect vacuum then you could suck water up 10.3 meters. So the weight of the atmosphere is the same as the weight of 10.3 meters thickness of water. Every square meter of the Earth’s surface has 10.3 metric tons of atmosphere above it.
Here is a video showing how you can suck water up to several meters through a straw, six meters, but not quite 10.3 meters - because you can’t create a perfect vacuum. Anyway - at the end where it shows them trying to suck the water up to the top of a cliff - the atmosphere above us is equivalent in mass to a layer of water the height of that cliff.
That’s what they tend to forget.
So they are right, there’s no warning, but you aren’t toast. Indeed you’d not notice the event itself at all except as a very bright flash - good idea to close your eyes if that happens because the UV light could make you blind.
The effects of a nearby gamma ray burst or supernova, even if it is as close as just a few light years away would be just on the upper atmosphere on the ozone layer leading to more UV radiation - an ozone hole - and possibly nitric acid rain. The ionizing radiation effects are not significant.
SUMMARY
Perhaps Gamma ray bursts could have caused some mass extinctions in the past - but so far we don't have anything that is confirmed to have been caused by a gamma ray burst. It is a minority view hypothesis for the Ordovician–Silurian extinction events - if so the new ozone layer study suggests that they couldn’t have caused this extinction through ozone smog at ground level. That leaves the UV light but it’s hard to see that causing the extinctions to such an extent either. Paper about biological effects of gamma ray bursts here
You don’t need to worry that a gamma ray burst could make humans extinct. Though it could be a nuisance for us. Thankfully they are very very rare. Like supernovae, they can’t be predicted because they happen as a result of very distant astronomical events that we are nowhere near being able to observe with enough precision to predict such a thing.
See also:
See also my: Debunked: A gamma ray burst could make humans extinct
Yes.
Or a double face palm
Or an epic facepalm :)
See also my
And if you are interested, please sign my petition here:
Let's End Dramatized Reporting of "Doomsday" Stories - The Vulnerable Get Suicidal
No! First, the “X” in “Planet X” stands for unknown. Pluto was called Planet X before it was discovered. So all planet X candidates are only possible planets. None are confirmed yet and there have ...
(more)No! First, the “X” in “Planet X” stands for unknown. Pluto was called Planet X before it was discovered. So all planet X candidates are only possible planets. None are confirmed yet and there have been many planet X candidates that were disproved, over the years. But one might exist, the so called (rather misleadingly) “Planet 9”. There are a few other possible ideas too, such as the idea of a planet to explain the “Kuiper cliff”.
However, if it exists, this is its orbit.
Do you see that blue circle in the centre? That's our entire solar system out to Neptune and Pluto. The red ellipse shows the possible orbit of Planet X / Planet 9. And the only way it can exist and not be seen yet is if it is at the furthest point from the sun right now, or close to it. So it is absolutely no possible threat to Earth and the idea that it could be due a flyby of Earth this September is totally absurd. Can you see that? For more on that see Why This New "Planet X" Is No Threat To Earth :).
The other planet X candidates are all similar, have orbits that never take them inside of Neptune. An orbit that crosses both Neptune and Uranus’s orbit would be unstable as there would be no way to avoid multiple flybys and it would only last a short time, because every flyby would change its orbit in a random way.
One that passed Jupiter and Saturn as well like this “Nibiru” idea would be even more unstable - it couldn’t stay in its orbit for more than a million years, so all such planets must have been cleared out in the first few hundred mllion years of our solar system. That’s why all the astronomer “planet X” candidates have such distant orbits.
If there are any planet X candidates out there, they are in stable orbits and they are no more able to hit Earth than Neptune or Jupiter.
Also they must be a long way out to be not detected yet. This “Planet 9” would have to be close to its furthest point from Earth. That’s because we’ve had multiple all sky infrared observations and any nearby planet, close as Pluto say, would be detected easily. At that distance we can currently detect most objects of about 100 kms upwards.
Also Why An Extra Planet Can't Be Hidden Behind The Sun Or Above The South Pole
And: World Did NOT End On 29th July! AWFUL "Silly Season" Story - Journalists Please Be More Responsible
You are probably thinking about asteroid Bennu because NASA are going to launch a mission to it on 8th September, the OSIRIS-REx (Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, Security...
(more)You are probably thinking about asteroid Bennu because NASA are going to launch a mission to it on 8th September, the OSIRIS-REx (Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, Security, Regolith Explorer) mission. No, Asteroid Bennu Won't Destroy Earth
So, yes there is a 1 in 2700 chance that it will hit us some time in the 22nd century, at some point between 2175 to 2196. That means that there are 2699 chances in 2700 that it will not hit, so it is very likely that it won’t hit.
At 490 meters diameter, is too small to have global effects, though it is just large enough to cause a tsunami if it hit the sea according to this paper.
And so long as we have space technology at that point, if we do find it is headed our way when the time comes, a gentle nudge a decade or two before the flyby will be plenty to make sure it misses, to change its velocity by of order of cms per day. Or even less if it does a flyby of Earth first before the impact, as it would then only need of order of microns a day adjustment. With such a long timescale we could prevent it hitting Earth by simple measures such as painting its surface white. But 160 years is also far enough into the future that we could just mine it away to nothing by then if we develop space mining by then. Many possibilities.
But it’s not remotely an extinction level event. And indeed, we are no longer hit by asteroids much larger than 10 km in diameter. The big craters on the Moon date from the early solar system, all of them are from over three billion years ago, and you can’t find a crater anywhere in the inner solar system inside of the asteroid belt for the last three billion years that was created by an impactor significantly larger than 10 km in diameter. Since 100 km diameter and larger objects must come into the inner solar system from time to time, the conclusion, also supported by modeling, is that Jupiter protects us from the larger asteroids by diverting them away, including diverting them to hit the Sun or fly close enough for it to evaporate them - or diverting right out of the solar system or breaking them up into smaller pieces. It doesn’t do such a good job of protecting us from 10 km size asteroids and smaller though many of those also hit Jupiter so it does help with some, others though it might actively send our way.
There are larger asteroids in the asteroid belt that would in theory cause serious harm on Earth if they were diverted our way - but they are all in stable orbits for millions of years into the future, and again there are no craters on Mars, or its moons, our Moon, Mercury, and what we have of the history of Venus or Earth from any objects that large either, so they have been in sufficiently stable orbits to not threaten us for three billion years. Smaller asteroids from the asteroid belt do get diverted inwards by tugs of Jupiter’s gravity.
So in short we only need to be concerned about roughly 10 km scale asteroids at the largest. Those are certainly nowhere near large enough to end all life on Earth. They are also very improbable. 99.99999% certain that we are not hit by one of those in any given century.
The dinosaur extinction event caused extinction of perhaps 70% of all species. But small mammals, turtles, crocodiles, birds, dawn sequoia, many species survived. Humans are amongst the most reilient of all creatures on Earth with just a tiny amount of technology, even stone age technology. Can survive anywhere from the Arctic to the Kalahari desert. And we are omnivores, can eat anything from fruit, crops, animals, sea creatures, shellfish, just about anything. I can’t see even a major impact like that making us extinct, there would be some survivors at least who would then rebuild civilization. And there would be places on Earth opposite the impact especially that would be hardly affected, retain their technology, in submarines also, and many of us would survive the nuclear winter.
So - worst case scenario of the largest asteroid impacts is widespread chaos and suffering. But not extinction.
But - we can detect asteroids, know how to do this, just need the funding for it. We can deflect them easily if we have a long enough lead time. It’s the one natural disaster we can predict to the minute at least a decade or two in advance, and then prevent easily too. The main gap here is knowledge - we hope to find 99% of all the 1 km asteroids by the 2020s. Bennu is a bit below that limit but with some extra funding for a dedicated space telescope we can find just about all the smaller ones too by then.
And the probability of “death by asteroid” is minute. It’s far less than the chance of dying by lightning or tornadoes. And far far less than the chance of death from a traffic accident (as pedestrian, passenger or driver).
For more on this see my Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them (free to read online) also available as a kindle booklet
Giant Asteroid Is Headed Your Way? : How We Can Detect and Deflect Them (Amazon)
Also my Could Anything Make Humans Extinct In The Near Future?
The strongest winds on Mars would just barely move an autumn leaf supposing there was one lying on the Mars surface. They can only lift the Mars dust because it is very fine, similar to cigarette a...
(more)The strongest winds on Mars would just barely move an autumn leaf supposing there was one lying on the Mars surface. They can only lift the Mars dust because it is very fine, similar to cigarette ash. The storm scene in “The Martian” is an intentional mistake for dramatic effect - he needed a way to strand his protagonist on Mars and decided to bend the physics in order to make it more dramatic, as science fiction authors often do. It’s what they call “poetic license”
Most of his book is very hard science or near(ish) future extrapolated technology. However amongst other things, he also had to make the spacesuits much more capable than is likely in the very near future or his protagonist wouldn’t have been able to do much, and his atmospheric recycling (oxygenator, atmospheric regulator, water recycler) is also rather miraculous by present day standards with close to 100% efficiency.
For more on that, see my answer to How realistic is the book "The Martian"?
Some of the other answers here are confusing two events I think. In the Fellowship of the Ring, Gandalf says “No, don’t give it to me, put it on the mantelpiece. It will be safe enough there”. As h...
(more)Some of the other answers here are confusing two events I think. In the Fellowship of the Ring, Gandalf says “No, don’t give it to me, put it on the mantelpiece. It will be safe enough there”. As he does that, Bilbo hand jerks back and he drops the envelope with the ring inside. “Before he could pick it up, the wizard stopped and seized it and set it in its place.” The Fellowship of the Ring
So there the wizard obviously wants to have as little to do with the ring as possible. But does touch the envelope it’s inside. The incident where he puts it in the fire is later on, after he returns from his journey to find out more about the ring in Gondor, and his meeting with Aragorn who had captured Gollum, and involves Gandalf with Frodo.
The reason he doesn’t want to touch the ring at all, if he can help it, is because it could be too much temptation for him, he might start to desire it for himself and with his power he could do a lot of good with it - but he knows that would be the path to his eventual downfall.
The only character in the books not affected by the ring at all is Tom Bombadil. For him it is a bauble, which he would soon forget and lose, he not only doesn’t go invisible when he wears it, he actually makes the ring itself vanish for fun. See also Robert Walker's answer to Does Tom Bombadil predate the Istari? Apparently Tom Bombadil is not in the movies and I think that’s a real shame as then you lose that perspective of someone who is not affected by the ring at all.
Yes certainly if you mean predates them in Middle Earth. It’s more tricky if you mean whether he was in Middle Earth before the Istari (wizards like Gandalf, who were also Maia) existed. I don’t th...
(more)Yes certainly if you mean predates them in Middle Earth. It’s more tricky if you mean whether he was in Middle Earth before the Istari (wizards like Gandalf, who were also Maia) existed. I don’t think we can know the answer to that. Unless “eldest” means he predates the entire cosmology.
But if it just means eldest in middle Earth well we also know he is older than the rivers, trees, rain, and acorns. I don’t think we can say much more than that, as he doesn’t say that he is younger than anything.
In response to Sid Kemp's answer to Does Tom Bombadil predate the Istari?, I don’t think Tom Bombadil can be a Maia because that doesn’t explain why the ring had no power over him when it does over other Maia.
Part of the motivation for him, I think is Tolkein’s love of the “flawed narrator” perspective in his books. He’s an element that we just don’t know, he might even be as much a mystery to Tolkien himself, and within the context of the books and the fictional narrators / authors of the books - the narrator doesn’t know either, and he is also a mystery to other characters in the book who also don’t know. If so, we’ll never know, and I rather like it like that myself :).
The rest though, of Sid Kemp's answer to Does Tom Bombadil predate the Istari? I agree with. It’s just about him being Maia - how can he be uninfluenced by the ring if that was true? Gandalf for instance said the temptation would be far too great to carry it himself.
But for Tom Bombadil it’s just a bauble. He would be a most unsafe guardian as he’d soon forget about it and soon lose it. And it has no power over him - when he wears it, he doesn’t vanish, instead, he makes the ring vanish instead momentarily, a fun reversal of ideas.
In the paper: HOW ROUGH IS THE SURFACE OF EUROPA AT LANDER SCALE?Hobley et al produce this table
So, for a surface temperature of 132 K (about -150 C) it loses about 5.66 meters over the average age...
(more)In the paper: HOW ROUGH IS THE SURFACE OF EUROPA AT LANDER SCALE?Hobley et al produce this table
So, for a surface temperature of 132 K (about -150 C) it loses about 5.66 meters over the average age of the surface of 50 million years. For a temperature of 128 °K (-154 °C) it loses 1.28 meters in 50 million years, tailing off to 10 cms at 116 °K (-166 °C).
One scientist has suggested this may lead to spectacular ice blades especially in equatorial regions
For more on this: If there is a possibility of life on Europa, then why did NASA land a craft on Titan and not Europa?
No, you get a magnitude 5 earthquake somewhere on the Earth every day or two and magnitude 4 or less several times a day. Magnitude 6 to 8 are more rare. But we’ve had those every year as well. The...
(more)No, you get a magnitude 5 earthquake somewhere on the Earth every day or two and magnitude 4 or less several times a day. Magnitude 6 to 8 are more rare. But we’ve had those every year as well. The year with most magnitude 8 or 9 earthquakes in the last decade is 2007 with four of them. The year with most magnitude 7 is 2011 with 19.
So it’s nothing new. Just that we are much more interconnected, many of us may know people in regions prone to earthquakes which was rarely true before, and they hit the news more too.
Figures here List of earthquakes in 2015
No, it’s not going to end.
For those who worry about such things - the Sun is a huge distance from Earth, it's not orbiting just a few hundred kilometers overhead as you might perhaps naively think....
(more)No, it’s not going to end.
For those who worry about such things - the Sun is a huge distance from Earth, it's not orbiting just a few hundred kilometers overhead as you might perhaps naively think. It's not possible for a planet to hide behind the sun until the last minute and then dash down and hit or flyby Earth in the last ten hours. A planet can't hide like that anyway, because it would have to be in one of the constellations on its way into the inner solar system, and so would be visible all night at some point in the year.
The whole thing is complete nonsense. For details see Why An Extra Planet Can't Be Hidden Behind The Sun Or Above The South Pole. You will probably kick yourself, if you've been scared by such ideas, once you realize how impossible it is.
A bit of background in astronomy, and how we came to see that the Earth orbits the Sun, and how constellations work may also help you to see how impossible it is (originally posted as a comment to that article).
WHY WE ARE SO SURE THIS IS IMPOSSIBLE
I think many of those who believe in Nibiru must think that the Sun orbits the Earth, only a little way above the sky, and Nibiru also orbits Earth, and hides behind it and then at some point will kind of jump out from behind it to fly past Earth - as it is the only way to make sense of the idea. They may say the Earth orbits the Sun, but they must be really thinking in terms of the Sun orbiting the Earth as it doesn't make sense the other way around. Astronomers tend to assume everyone knows this, but there is no real reason why you should, or if you have, easy to forget if it wasn't particularly interesting to you at school. If you haven't learnt much astronomy, it certainly looks like that and that's what most people believed for all of Earth's history until 1543.
But we've known for several centuries that the sun doesn't orbit the Earth. That started off with Copernicus in the sixteenth century (though he was preceded by the Greek Aristarchus in the third century BC, who presented a sun centered system as well as a geocentric one)
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Copernicus, first in modern times to say that the Earth orbits the Sun rather than the other way around in the sixteenth century
It took a while to establish this, because Copernicus's theory was actually not much better at predicting the motion of planets than the earlier ones, because it still relied on circular orbits. One of the deciding factors came with Galileo's observations of the phases of Venus in 1610, published in 1613.
Until then they thought that the sun went round the Earth along with the stars and the planets. But you can't make sense of the changes of size of Venus and the changes of phase based on this.
While if you assume that Venus orbits the sun, then the diagram makes total sense. It is closer to us when it is on the near side of the Sun, when it is crescent phase with the sun behind it. It is furthest away on the far side and then because it's on the far side of the sun, it is fully illuminated by it.
For a while many of the astronomers then worked with the Tychonic system which looks like this:
As you see, all the planets orbit the sun, except Earth, which they thought of as the center of the universe, and the sun orbits Earth. Venus and Mercury orbit between Earth and the Sun, which explains why you see them go back and forth in the sky but never far from the Sun and explains the phases, and the planets Mars, Jupiter and Saturn sometimes go the other side of Earth from the Sun which explains why we sometimes see them all night.
This is Copernicus's model
There wasn't much in it for a long time. Up until then everyone assumed that planets moved in circles as "the most perfect form of motion". And circles didn't work well in any of the systems so they ended up piling lots of rather unconvincing tiny circular motions within larger ones within larger ones to get the numbers right.
But then Kepler discovered that the planets moved in ellipses rather than circles around the sun in the early seventeenth century. Suddenly everything became clear. Many difficulties and fudge factors disappeared and they could then explain the positions of the planets in the sky perfectly.
From then on the geocentric idea, that everything orbits the Earth, went into decline. Newton gave it the death knell when he worked out his theory of universal gravitation, which explained exactly why planets move in ellipses instead of circles. It made other predictions as well and eventually all the astronomers agreed that the only system that worked was a sun centered system with the planets following elliptical orbits.
So now, with the planets orbiting the Sun, then if a planet is behind the Sun - it means it is in an orbit around the Sun but is at the other side of it. And if it is in a 3600 year orbit it can only go around the Sun very slowly, except when it gets closest to the Sun.
So on its long ten year journey into the inner solar system it would be visible for years on end, hardly changing position in the sky at all relative to the "fixed stars". For part of the year it would be hidden behind the Sun, yes, but for the rest of the year it would be in our night sky.
That much you can also confirm by your own direct observation. You see Sirius for instance in Winter, but not in Summer. So then we get back to this map:
So, as Nibiru, if it existed, approaches the inner solar system, it would need to approach us from one of those directions, or somewhere in between. If it approaches the inner solar system from the direction of Leo, we'll see it in spring every year. If it approaches from the direction of Sagittarius, we see it in Summer, and so on.
Here is a more detailed map:
And labeled by name:
As you see, the constellations of the Zodiac are in all directions, but half of them are hidden behind the sun at any time of the year depending on the position of Earth in its orbit.
Whatever direction a planet or comet approached Earth from, if in the ecliptic (where you'd expect it) it has to come from the direction of one of those twelve constellations. So we would see it whenever that constellation is visible in our sky, and would see it approaching for ten years too, the fastest any planet or comet can get from Neptune to Earth's orbit, otherwise it is traveling too fast to stay bound to our solar system.
If it is further to the North or South than any of them, that mean as it will almost certainly miss Earth anyway as it is much easier to do a close flyby if you are both in the same plane. And also makes it visible for more of the year, not less, in the relevant hemisphere.
If it approaches from due North, that means it is close to Polaris in the sky. That doesn't mean it is only visible from teh North pole as many of the Nibiru people think. Instead it means it is visible all night, every clear night, throughout the northern hemisphere. Anyone who has ever tried to find the pole star in the night sky will know this - it is always there - exactly in the same place in the sky, every night. And if it approachs from the South, it is always visible, every clear night, from Australia, New Zealand, Southern Africa, South America and anywhere else where you can see the Southern Cross. Again, the Southern Cross is not just visible from Antarctica, it's visible from pretty much the entire southern hemisphere.
Does this make sense now? As Brian Cox said, in his tweet
"If anyone else asks me about "Nibiru" the imaginary bullshit planet I will slap them around their irrational heads with Newton's Principia"
- that's the book in which Newton established his theory of universal gravitation. These Nibiru people are asking astronomers to throw out all the advances that were made in astronomy since Newton and indeed earlier, as that's the only way their ideas make any sense. And even then, they don't really make sense either.
You could ask them, which constellation of the zodiac was it in for the last ten years as it approached the sun? They wouldn't be able to answer that either.
To hide behind the sun in right now, for instance, it needs to be in the constellation Cancer. Seethis list of when the Sun entered various constellations in 2015 (is pretty much the same for any year). From that site:
"In the Northern Hemisphere, Cancer is best seen in the evening sky in late winter and early spring. It is lost in the sun’s glare in July and August, and then is found in the morning sky starting in September."
Whatever constellation they say it is in, you can go to the EarthSky site and look up to see when it is visible. Then ask them:
"why then don't we see it when that constellation is in the night sky?"
If they say it zips around through all the constellations once a year to stay opposite Earth - even the ancients would have recognized that as a one year cycle, and it just doesn't fit with their idea that its orbit repeats every 3600 years.
So - even without all of this, even for the ancient Greeks, say, it's impossible to make any sense of their idea that it can hide behind the sun for more than a month or two. But it may help make it clearer to understand the modern way that the planets are understood. Hope this helps make it a bit clearer, to anyone who hasn't "got it" yet.
I know how unfamiliar ideas can sometimes take a while to click. Just about everyone would say the Earth orbits the sun for sure, if asked. But I think many people don't really understand what it means in any detail.
For details see Why An Extra Planet Can't Be Hidden Behind The Sun Or Above The South Pole.
WHAT ABOUT POLE SHIFTS?
All these stories you see about "pole shifts" are about the magnetic pole shift . This has nothing to do with a change of direction of the Earth’s axis. The rotation axis changes its direction very very slowly like a top - do you know how if you spin a top the axle goes around a small circle? Well the Earth does that too, but much much more slowly. It takes 26,000 years to go around once. It's heavy and it's a bit fatter at its equator and there's a slightly shorter distance between the poles and the result of that is that our planet's spin is very stable. It can't flip its axis, the only way it can change is in this slowly precessing way.
Magnetic pole reversals do happen but they happen slowly, over a period of centuries to thousands of years, and they happen roughly every few hundred thousand years.
In this diagram the yellow dots track the motion of the north "virtual geomagnetic pole" during a recent unusually rapid pole shift which took 250 years to reverse.
For a couple of science news stories about this research: An extremely brief reversal of the geomagnetic field, climate variability and a super volcano , Ice age polarity reversal was global event: Extremely brief reversal of geomagnetic field, climate variability, and super volcano
It remained reversed for a total of 450 years and the polarity reversal took 250 years. That's very rapid on geological timescales.
For the detailed scientific paper: Dynamics of the Laschamp geomagnetic excursion from Black Sea sediments. This diagram is discussed on page 65.
Our Earth’s magnetic field is currently stronger than average, it’s true that it is decreasing in strength, but only from higher than usual values towards normal values.
The magnetic poles move around all the time, sometimes faster, sometimes more slowly. This only becomes a sign of a pole shift if they move much of the way towards the equator.
If a pole shift was in progress, then over a period of decades, you'd notice that - your compass would start pointing East or West, or even maybe South instead of North. Actually at one point it would have multiple north and south poles and depending which country you are in the compass would point different directions. Like this, it gets very complex.
Anyway - that definitely will happen at some point in our future - that much is true. But it happens every few hundred thousand years, and there is no sign of it happening right now.
At present both magnetic poles are close to the geographical poles and here is not the slightest sign of a magnetic pole shift. On the signs so far, it doesn't seem likely to happen in our generation, not even the beginning of it.
CURRENT SITUATION, NO SIGN OF A REVERSAL
The South dip pole lies at a latitude of 64.28 degrees South, outside Antarctica, in the open ocean, also outside the Antarctic circle.
While the North magnetic pole is far closer to the pole, almost directly at it right now:
As you see the N. magnetic pole is continuing to move closer to the geometric N. pole and the S. magnetic pole is continuing to move away from the geometric S. pole.
In these diagrams, the blue is the geomagnetic pole - treats the Earth as if it were a dipole magnet. So the geomagnetic poles are diametrically opposite each other. The red dots are the dip poles - the point on the surface where your compass needle would point directly downwards or upwards.
More about it here: Magnetic Poles
There's also evidence that the magnetic field is getting weaker. But it’s been much stronger than usual for a while and so far it is not particularly low, just declining towards rather ordinary values
What it will do next is anybody’s guess. If you extrapolate that graph, it reaches 0 so a reversal after 1500 years. But there is no reason to suppose that it’s doing that. Even if it gets very weak, often you get “excursions” where the field gets weak, but then just restores itself in the same direction as before.
So there is no reason to suppose it will reverse based on the magnetic field strength so far. The magnetic poles are continually moving anyway and at present they are close to the poles and the magnetic field strength is normal.
It’s most certainly not going to happen next Friday on 29th July suddenly in one big flip as the conspiracy fearmongers are saying :).
WHAT WOULD THE EFFECTS BE IF IT DID HAPPEN?
On the remote chance it does, then the main thing is that we would have to harden the long distance power lines (main things vulnerable to increased solar storms) and wear more sunblock because of increased UV if the ozone layer gets damaged. There are magnetic pole reversals every few tens / hundreds of thousands of years and they don’t make species extinct. It’s not something to worry about.
The magnetic field gets weaker during a pole reversal but doesn't vanish. And we have our atmosphere above us,which is as heavy as ten meters thickness of water. So we are well protected from solar radiation / flares no matter what happens. And even our computers and such like would not be affected, only the long range power transmission, and if we did find ourselves going into a polar reversal, say a few decades from now (as it isn't happening right now) then there'd surely be more work done to harden those lines, though they need to be hardened anyway because solar storms can break through the Earth's magnetic field anyway and sometimes do. So it doesn't even make a major difference for those either. We should protect against them anyway.
I think main effects, apart from solar storms which we need to protect against anyway, would be
But it's not happening for a fair while anyway as it takes from a century to a thousand years to complete and not started yet. and you'd notice for sure if one was in progress by magnetic compasses no longer reliably pointing North.
For more about this, see What will happen if the Earth's magnetic poles reverse? Will we have a catastrophe on our hands?
See also:
Pole Reversal Happens All The (Geologic) Time
This section comes from my quora answer to What would happen if earth poles shifted drastically?
And this entire answer from The World Is NOT Ending Today! AWFUL "Silly Season" Story
See also my online petition at Change .org: Let's End Dramatized Reporting of "Doomsday" Stories - The Vulnerable Get Suicidal
I only know about daily life in modern Tibet indirectly, told stories about it by a Tibetan who came from Tibet recently, and has many relatives there. This is from a while back, the year before last.
...
(more)I only know about daily life in modern Tibet indirectly, told stories about it by a Tibetan who came from Tibet recently, and has many relatives there. This is from a while back, the year before last.
It’s a rural lifestyle in his part of Tibet. You had the choice to be a farmer or a monk, or you might be an artist, or musician, painting religious paintings normally. He is an artist and a musician. So your lifestyle options were rather limited, is true.
It is a slower paced lifestyle. This farming and religious lifestyle is through choice and not a lifestyle enforced on them by anyone else. They do have internet communication as he is in communication with his relatives in Tibet including sharing photos via the internet, every day. Just as people chat to friends on the internet here, he’d be chatting to his friends and relatives in Tibet on his mobile phone.
They are religious yes, and they still have monks, and they had to hide evidence of their religious activities during the Chinese invasion (or whatever you call it) but can now be more open about it. Their religion is part of everything, far more so than for us. Although quite a young man, he has spent a fair bit of time in a Chinese prison - I didn’t ask what for. But I’m sure it would be for nothing we in the West would call criminal, as he is very ethical and kind. He can’t go back to Tibet at present because he wouldn’t be permitted to leave again.
Looking at it as an outsider it might seem a limited lifestyle and they have fewer opportunities. But you could say the same about us. Take photos showing the length of time many people spend in traffic jams, or in subways or going up and down escalators. Take photos to show how much time they spend shopping. Or staring at a computer screen.Or typing. Lots of bored faces of people in subway trains. People ignoring each other in the street, never speaking to anyone even when waiting for a bus or in a train, as is often the case in the UK - that may also seem quite strange for someone used to a society where people communicate more.
Our lifestyle also might not seem such a great life depending how it’s presented. And the traffic fumes, and the accident statistics, how many people die each year in car accidents. If you did that, we’d rightly complain that this gives a completely unfair picture of our society. But that may well be the same here also.
I should mention another example. Many Tibetans (not my friend) used to be nomads, living in tents and herding their yaks. The Chinese government recently forcibly housed them and took away the yaks. So now they live in model modern houses, which looks good to modern eyes - but they didn’t want this lifestyle as it was forced on them. So what seems good from the outside may not always be what they want, not just in religion, but in lifestyle also.
What matters is what the Tibetans themselves want, not what someone else thinks they should want.
Access to education is important. And modern medicine as well of course. The Dalai Lama has called for it to be an autonomous region meaning that the Tibetans should have autonomy over education, over their prisons, and schools, and over their lifestyle and decisions about the environment amongst other things. I agree. It would need a transition period of course, not instantly, but over a period of time I think they should transit to administering all those things themselves.
That’s because precisely of this outsider effect that others looking in may decide that something is good for them, such as for instance to live in houses rather than tents, for the ones who were nomads, but they need to decide that themselves.
I hope some Tibetans living in Tibet or with relatives in Tibet contribute answers here at some point, and will be interested to read their answers!
See also: Robert Walker's answer to Do Tibetans want to be a part of China?
Okay first, this is about the magnetic pole shift . This has nothing to do with a change of direction of the Earth’s axis. The rotation axis changes its direction very very slowly like a top - do y...
(more)Okay first, this is about the magnetic pole shift . This has nothing to do with a change of direction of the Earth’s axis. The rotation axis changes its direction very very slowly like a top - do you know how if you spin a top the axle goes around a small circle? Well the Earth does that too, but much much more slowly. It takes 26,000 years to go around once. It's heavy and it's a bit fatter at its equator and there's a slightly shorter distance between the poles and the result of that is that our planet's spin is very stable. It can't flip its axis, the only way it can change is in this slowly precessing way.
Magnetic pole reversals do happen but they happen slowly, over a period of centuries to thousands of years, and they happen roughly every few hundred thousand years.
In this diagram the yellow dots track the motion of the north "virtual geomagnetic pole" during a recent unusually rapid pole shift which took 250 years to reverse.
For a couple of science news stories about this research: An extremely brief reversal of the geomagnetic field, climate variability and a super volcano , Ice age polarity reversal was global event: Extremely brief reversal of geomagnetic field, climate variability, and super volcano
It remained reversed for a total of 450 years and the polarity reversal took 250 years. That's very rapid on geological timescales.
For the detailed scientific paper: Dynamics of the Laschamp geomagnetic excursion from Black Sea sediments. This diagram is discussed on page 65.
Our Earth’s magnetic field is currently stronger than average, it’s true that it is decreasing in strength, but only from higher than usual values towards normal values.
The magnetic poles move around all the time, sometimes faster, sometimes more slowly. This only becomes a sign of a pole shift if they move much of the way towards the equator.
If a pole shift was in progress, then over a period of decades, you'd notice that - your compass would start pointing East or West, or even maybe South instead of North. Actually at one point it would have multiple north and south poles and depending which country you are in the compass would point different directions. Like this, it gets very complex.
Anyway - that definitely will happen at some point in our future - that much is true. But it happens every few hundred thousand years, and there is no sign of it happening right now.
At present both magnetic poles are close to the geographical poles and here is not the slightest sign of a magnetic pole shift. On the signs so far, it doesn't seem likely to happen in our generation, not even the beginning of it.
CURRENT SITUATION, NO SIGN OF A REVERSAL
The South dip pole lies at a latitude of 64.28 degrees South, outside Antarctica, in the open ocean, also outside the Antarctic circle.
While the North magnetic pole is far closer to the pole, almost directly at it right now:
As you see the N. magnetic pole is continuing to move closer to the geometric N. pole and the S. magnetic pole is continuing to move away from the geometric S. pole.
In these diagrams, the blue is the geomagnetic pole - treats the Earth as if it were a dipole magnet. So the geomagnetic poles are diametrically opposite each other. The red dots are the dip poles - the point on the surface where your compass needle would point directly downwards or upwards.
More about it here: Magnetic Poles
There's also evidence that the magnetic field is getting weaker. But it’s been much stronger than usual for a while and so far it is not particularly low, just declining towards rather ordinary values
What it will do next is anybody’s guess. If you extrapolate that graph, it reaches 0 so a reversal after 1500 years. But there is no reason to suppose that it’s doing that. Even if it gets very weak, often you get “excursions” where the field gets weak, but then just restores itself in the same direction as before.
So there is no reason to suppose it will reverse based on the magnetic field strength so far. The magnetic poles are continually moving anyway and at present they are close to the poles and the magnetic field strength is normal.
It’s most certainly not going to happen next Friday on 29th July suddenly in one big flip as the conspiracy fearmongers are saying :).
WHAT WOULD THE EFFECTS BE IF IT DID HAPPEN?
On the remote chance it does, then the main thing is that we would have to harden the long distance power lines (main things vulnerable to increased solar storms) and wear more sunblock because of increased UV if the ozone layer gets damaged. There are magnetic pole reversals every few tens / hundreds of thousands of years and they don’t make species extinct. It’s not something to worry about.
The magnetic field gets weaker during a pole reversal but doesn't vanish. And we have our atmosphere above us,which is as heavy as ten meters thickness of water. So we are well protected from solar radiation / flares no matter what happens. And even our computers and such like would not be affected, only the long range power transmission, and if we did find ourselves going into a polar reversal, say a few decades from now (as it isn't happening right now) then there'd surely be more work done to harden those lines, though they need to be hardened anyway because solar storms can break through the Earth's magnetic field anyway and sometimes do. So it doesn't even make a major difference for those either. We should protect against them anyway.
I think main effects, apart from solar storms which we need to protect against anyway, would be
But it's not happening for a fair while anyway as it takes from a century to a thousand years to complete and not started yet. and you'd notice for sure if one was in progress by magnetic compasses no longer reliably pointing North.
For more about this, see What will happen if the Earth's magnetic poles reverse? Will we have a catastrophe on our hands?
See also:
If you mean the latest Planet X idea, they aren’t. Nemesis (hypothetical star) is postulated to be 1.5 light years away with an orbital period of 26 million years. It almost certainly doesn’t exist...
(more)If you mean the latest Planet X idea, they aren’t. Nemesis (hypothetical star) is postulated to be 1.5 light years away with an orbital period of 26 million years. It almost certainly doesn’t exist as it was postulated to be a red dwarf or a brown dwarf (half way between a planet and a star). The red dwarf idea was ruled out by the WISE space telescope infrared search. Also most brown dwarfs were ruled out too as it could spot the more usual 150 K brown dwarf out to ten light years away.
The one remaining possibility for Nemesis is an unusually ultracold brown dwarf. That could exist but it’s not likely because such stars are rare. A SEARCH FOR A DISTANT COMPANION TO THE SUN WITH THE WIDE-FIELD INFRARED SURVEY EXPLORER
While this latest idea has orbital period 10,000 to 20,000 years if it exists, and they suppose it to be much smaller, about the size of Neptune perhaps,
And please sign my petition here: Ban dramatized reporting of "doomsday" stories - which make vulnerable people suicidal!
Well someone has already proposed something similar, using infrared. After all all light is electromagnetic radiation. So anyway Philip Lubin (of UC Santa Barbara) talks about it here.
...
(more)Well someone has already proposed something similar, using infrared. After all all light is electromagnetic radiation. So anyway Philip Lubin (of UC Santa Barbara) talks about it here.
So his idea is to build a modular infrared phased laser array, powered entirely by solar power and focus the output on your NEO. You can use phasing to focus the infrared on the target.
The easiest targets would be comets as they evaporate at between 20 C and around 200 C. To evaporate stony or metallic meteorites you'd need thousands of degrees. You would target them during a close flyby of Earth, which they normally will do before they hit. With a smaller meteorite you can evaporate it completely (which is why I'm including it here in this section on destroying the meteorite). Since the array is modular, then as you build it larger, you can evaporate larger meteorites.
You can also use it to focus energy on part of the meteorite, creating a jet of evaporates that can propel the meteorite.
This image from his talk illustrates the idea.
He proposes systems of various sizes from desktop sized to kilometers in diameter. The ten kilometer one could deposit 1.5 megatons of energy a day on the target and just obliterate the asteroid from a great distance, California Scientists Propose System to Vaporize Asteroids That Threaten Earth
But to deflect an asteroid, he calculates that a 20 kW device could do it, if it travels alongside the target deflecting it from nearby
“As one example, consider a typical 325 m asteroid: beginning 15 yr in advance, just 2 N of thrust from a ~20 kW stand-on DE-STARLITE system is sufficient to deflect the asteroid by 2 Re [radius of Earth]. Numerous scenarios are discussed as is a practical implementation of such a system consistent with current launch vehicle capabilities.”
[1601.03690] Orbital Simulations on Deflecting Near-Earth Objects by Directed Energy
List of some of his publications here: DE-STAR
There are many other ways to deflect an asteroid. Direct kinetic impact could work for many, even without nuclear weapons. Also with so many asteroids out there, often you can find another asteroid on a similar enough orbit that you can hit the smaller one and deflect it to hit the larger one creating a multiplier effect.
It all depends on how long in advance you know about he impact.
If you know about it over 10 years in advance, you just need to change the velocity by a little more than the speed of a fast moving snail. And if it does a flyby of Earth first - as would often the case indeed if you have detected it long in advance, say a couple of decades in advance, then it has to go through a narrow “keyhole” perhaps 200 meters in diameter first to hit Earth next time around. In that case, you just need to deflect it with a delta v of order 0.1 cms per hour to miss the keyhole a decade later, and even with only one year before the flyby, you only need to deflect it by of order 1 cm per hour to miss the keyhole.
See also my Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them which goes over some of the other ways of deflecting asteroids.
I’d like to make a rather more basic point. It is impossible for a planet to be hidden behind the sun for years on end in a 3600 year orbit approaching from the outer solar system as the Nibiru peo...
(more)I’d like to make a rather more basic point. It is impossible for a planet to be hidden behind the sun for years on end in a 3600 year orbit approaching from the outer solar system as the Nibiru people claim. This is the most basic elementary astronomy but of course many of us never study astronomy. It’s because the Earth orbits the sun. Most of us agree that the Earth orbits the sun, nowadays, but few stop to think what it means.
It is true that stars and planets can hide behind the sun. Take Sirius for example.
Sirius is the bright star just to left and below the middle of this photo. night sky looking towards Orion
You can see Sirius from the Northern hemisphere as a bright star in winter and early spring. It’s hidden behind the sun in summer and autumn. See Sirius is Dog Star and brightest star | EarthSky.org
Here is a graphic by
However, they can only be hidden for half the year. If a star is hidden from us in spring, you just need to wait until autumn and there it will be plain to view. Sirius is hidden in summer, but easy to see in winter.
That’s true of the planets too, for the ones that orbit further away than Earth. Venus and Mercury are different, they are so close to the sun that they just go back and forth to either side of it as seen from Earth - sometimes in the late evening sky and sometimes in the early morning sky.
But Mars, Jupiter, Saturn as the main ones visible to the naked eye, and the fainter planets further away Uranus, Neptune, Pluto which you look at with telescopes - they are visible in the night sky for half the year. At some point, every year, when we are roughly between it and the sun, each planet will rise when the sun sets, set when the sun rises, and is in the sky all night.
Also, if anything comes into the inner solar system from beyond Pluto - which is possible with a long period comet - it has to take ten years to get here. Any faster, and it would be going so fast it would escape from the solar system and can’t be in orbit around the sun.
So, when they say Nibiru is hidden behind the sun, it has to have been hidden for ten years at least on its long journey in - if it existed which is impossible of course.
Try asking this question if anyone tells you that Nibiru hides behind the sun. If it is hidden behind the sun in summer, where was it in winter, when Earth was the other side of the sun from where it is now?
I guarantee that they won’t be able to answer this. They will just change subject.
They may say “Ah but it is dark, because it’s a brown dwarf”. Well, a brown dwarf is a “failed star”, a planet that is larger than Jupiter, nearly large enough to shine by its own light but not quite big enough. It shines by infrared light but doesn’t produce any visible light of its own.
Well, the Moon also doesn’t shine by its own light. Yet it is easy to see. The Moon is dark also, as dark as worn asphalt, as you can tell if you look at the moon rocks.
When we see the bright moon in the sky - this is what we are looking at, dark rocks as dark as worn asphalt. It looks so bright because the sunlight hitting it is bright, and because we see it against a dark night sky. This is a rare lunar meteorite, a meteorite found on Earth that comes from the Moon. Lunaite (lunar breccia)
It only looks so bright because the sunlight shining on it is so very bright and because the night sky is dark.
Brown dwarfs vary a lot in how dark they are, but the very darkest brown dwarf at the distance of Jupiter would be as bright as Betelgeuse.
Betelgeuse is the bright slighlty reddish star to the middle right of this picture. The darkest brown dwarf at the distance of Jupiter would be as bright as Betelgeuse. night sky looking towards Orion
The other thing they are likely to do to change subject is to say that Nibiru is approaching us from the South pole and is only visible from Antarctica. Here is a rather hilarious (for astronomers) obviously fake video that is supposed to show Nibiru hovering above the South pole.
Please don’t be taken in by such videos. This is easy to fake. You can do it on an ordinary PC and you don’t need any special equipment. Probably can do it even with free tools nowadays. It is just a video off some base in an icy place, then fades to a wobbly photo of a planet like object, with sound effects added. Then the “planet” disappears off the screen to the top and the icy location reappears. It doesn’t even have both on screen at once, so basic elementary faking there.
The so called “Planet” here, I’m pretty sure is Saturn’s moon Mimas, from the distinctive shape of that enormous crater.
This is a better view of it:
Now if you pay any attention to the stars and know how to find the pole star, you may know that in the northern hemisphere whenever you get a clear night, you always see the pole star. What’s more it is always at the exactly same place in the sky. It doesn’t move at all, or only by minute amounts, all night and all year. Every day of the year, if it’s a clear night, look due North and up a fair bit, and there it is.
If you are close to the equator, then it’s very low just above the horizon, but again, always in the same place, night after night. Here it is from Thailand.
This is a photo of the big dipper and Polaris from Thailand - Polaris is that slightly fainter star at middle left. It is visible all night, every night, everywhere in the Northern hemisphere, except right at the equator. In Thailand it's close to the horizon, not high in the sky as it is here in the UK, but still is visible all night.
Well, it’s the same in the Southern hemisphere. Just as the pole star is visible from most of the entire northern hemisphere, the southern cross is visible from all of the southern hemisphere, except again from very close to the equator.
Anything visible in the night sky above the South Pole would also be visible in Australia, New Zealand, Southern Africa, South America, etc. That is, unless it is actually hovering above the South pole almost in the Earth's atmosphere.
So if they say to you that it is hidden from view because it’s approaching from the South, ask them, why then don’t we get all our iuternet friends from the southern hemisphere (if you don’t live there yourself) shouting out to us that they can see a big planet hovering near the southern cross in their sky?
This all shows that this is an idea that spreads only because many people have no idea about physics. The people who say these things, as Niel De Grasse Tyson says, must have flunked physics at school.
That’s why astronomers just don’t give any time at all to these Nibiru people.
They don’t really understand what it means for the Earth to orbit the sun, and they don’t understand how the stars work, and don’t know that the Southern cross is visible all night all year round throughout the southern hemisphere.
So - can you not see, these are not clear sighted people with a special understanding of the future, able to predict what is going to happen to us. They are just muddled, confused, deluded, people, and sometimes deliberately hoaxing us.
Sometimes you can be sure that it is just a hoax. This is a clip from a frame from a video recently posted to youtube that got many people scared.
Here is a photograph of the full Moon for comparison
And here is the full video:
However much one might want to think that nobody could do such a thing, it is just not credible, that anyone would take a fuzzy video of the full Moon through a red filter, or post production edit it to look red, and not realize that they are videoing the Moon.
Please don’t be scared by this nutty idea or by the many people who jump on the bandwaggon and share videos like this.
Here I am talking about this in an audio recording: Why Nibiru can’t_hide_behind_the Sun
SO CAN NIBIRU BE IN A STABLE ORBIT?
So anyway with this background, to return to the question. I know the question is about Earth, but it’s not Earth that’s in trouble here, it’s Nibiru, it couldn’t be there.
Think about it. They say that this planet does repeated flybys of Earth every 3600 years. Well every time it did that, its orbit would change. And if it flys past Earth, then of course on many orbits it would also fly by Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune which are much larger.
There may well have been planets in orbits like that in the early solar system. But they didn’t last long because within a few orbits they either hit Jupiter, hit the Sun, were ejected from the solar system, or were torn into pieces by tidal effects of a close flyby of Jupiter (most likely) or melted in the heat of the Sun. It is not possible that there are any planets in orbits like this in our current solar system.
HOW CAN WE BE SO SURE, WHEN WE DISCOVER NEW PLANETS ALL THE TIME
Now some people find this hard to understand because they hear that astronomers find new planets all the time. Well it depends how far away it is.
If you have a tennis ball in your hand you can see it easily. If you look at a tennis game from a distance it might be quite hard to see. And if you look at it from, say, ten miles away you can’t see it at all.
It’s like that. The Pan STARRS telescope which searches for asteroids every night can see objects of up to 300 meters in diameter right out to the outer edge of the asteroid belt. It has already found all the asteroids of 10 kilometers in diameter or larger in ‘Earth crossing orbits inside of Jupiter and 90% of the ones of 1 kilometer in diameter. So we could still be missing objects of 1 km in diameter out to Jupiter, but not something of 10 km in diameter.
When you get to Neptune then we are still discovering objects of the order of 100 km in diameter. And when you get to many times the distance to Neptune or Pluto, then we might be able to find planets as big as Earth or even Jupiter, they think, if it is very far away. And around distant stars, light years away, we think that just about every star has planets, and they are very hard to spot from Earth because they are so far away.
In the other direction, towards the sun, then we could miss asteroids inside of Mercury. Immediately inside Mercury, the orbit would be unstable, could only be there for a short time. And very close to the sun, the rocks would boil and then evaporate in the heat of the sun. But in between, there is a zone where there could be asteroids hidden from view. But we’d see them cross in front of the Sun and in other ways. There have been searches to try to find them and nothing has been found yet. If they exist, they could be up to a few tens of kilometers in diameter. But they are of no risk at all to Earth because they are so close to the Sun, tightly bound in an orbit that goes around the Sun many times a year.
EXAMPLE OF A COW IN YOUR HOUSE
For an everyday example, suppose that a friend tells you that you have a cow in your house. Every time they pass your house they hear it mooing and they’ve even seen it. Well would you believe them?
That’s the sort of thing you’d know about. There’s no way you could miss a cow in your house. If they keep saying this, like the Nibiru people who keep saying there’s a hidden planet in the inner solar system, well you just would give up eventually, just politely leave them to their beliefs.
That is, unless you actually do have a cow in your house :).
Then you would believe them. But it’s not the sort of thing that could happen, and you don’t know about it. But if they say that they have lost their keys in your house, then yes, you’d hunt around the house, do your best to find them. So it’s like that.
THINGS THAT COULD THREATEN US
Now there are things that can threaten us. Not planet sized. Not even 100 km in size. Nothing large enough to make humans extinct with even the most basic of technology. But there are things that could be seriously bad news for us even so.
Well - don’t worry about them first, they are very very rare. You can be 99.999999% certain you won’t be hit by a giant asteroid this century. You are more likely to be killed by a tornado or a lightning strike, and far more likely to be killed in a car crash. These everyday things are the main things you need to take care about.
However the asteroids are important because they are the one natural disaster we can actually predict to the minute. Astronomers when talking about real asteroids that fly past Earth don’t say “oh it could fly past in spring” then when spring comes they say “oh it will fly past in autumn” or “ it will fly past just before Christmas” or whatever.
They will say - it will fly past on such and such a date, at this exact time to the minute. If you know enough about the orbit to know it is going to fly past Earth, you definitely know exactly when it will do it too. Because the Earth moves by 108,000 km/h so if you got the time of the flyby wrong by even a few hours, then it would be further away than the Moon.
So - you have a prediction exact to the minute. If we can predict it a decade in advance as well, just a gentle nudge will move it. It’s enough to change its velocity by a little more than the speed of a fast moving snail to get it to miss the Earth a decade later by an Earth radius. And if it does a flyby of Earth first, then it will have a tiny “keyhole” of a few hundred meters it has to go through to hit Earth next time around. Now you just need to change its velocity by a few cms a day!
So the main priority here is to track these things and predict them. If we can predict them long in advance we can prevent them. And - we are much more at risk from volcanoes, earthquakes, tsunamis etc. Nobody in recent history has been killed by an asteroid though some have in ancient history. Even then we haven’t had anything like an asteroid equivalent of Pompeii.
So, not something to be alarmed about. But I think that given how predictable asteroids are, that we could evacuate the impact zone, just warn people to stay away from windows, or given enough warning, then deflect them, that we should do more to deal with this easily detected and preventable hazard.
The UK government has just voted to approve renewal of Trident nuclear weapon system at a cost, some say, of $205 billion ($268 billion).
HMS Victorious at Clyde naval base. Photograph: Reuters. Replacing Trident will cost at least £205bn, campaigners say
When we spend so much on defending against each other - whatever you think about whether we should have done it or not (disclosure, I’ think we should be working towards world wide nuclear disarmament myself, and that the UK could take a lead there) - whatever you think of that, could we not spend a tiny fraction of the amount we spend on nuclear weapons on defending Earth against asteroids?
For half a billion dollars, less than 0.2% of the cost of Trident renewal, the UK government, unilaterally, could launch a spacecraft to Venus orbit which would find the majority of hazardous objects right down to 20 meters in diameter in 6.5 years. Astronomers know exactly what to do to find these objects, they just need the funding to go ahead.
The Sentinel space telescope. Estimated cost half a billion dollars (381 million pounds)
It would sit inside of Earth close to Venus's orbit giving it a good view of asteroids between us and the sun. It looks away from the sun and can see faint NEOs that are in between the Earth and the Sun which is the hardest place to spot them from our current Earth based surveys. It would help fix that blind spot for asteroids that come from the direction of the sun. It looks in infra red because the asteroids are far more obvious in the infrared. Idea is that it would find nearly all potential impactors down to 40 meters diameter. And recently announced, that it should be able to spot them down to 20 meters diameter.
They hoped to launch it in 2017 to 2018 on a Falcon 9. And to find 90% of NEOs down to 140 meters within ten years and a significant proportion of all NEOs down to 20 meters. - but sadly though they got millions of dollars of private donations they never got enough funding. It is still on the go, but they won’t be able to fly it any time soon unless someone steps in with funding to fill the gap.
Even a billionaire, a philanthropist individual, could do this. And then effectively retire most of the remaining risk from asteroid impacts.
For more on this see my Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
And for Nibiru:
And "Imaginary Bullshit Planet" Nibiru as a kindle booklet
Get this as a kindle ebook (127 pages)
(BTW I plan to do a new book when I have time, incorporate some of the things from my other articles like this one)
I’ve just written this up for my science blog as Why We Can't Have A Mystery Planet Hidden Behind The Sun Or Above The South Pole
And if you are interested, please sign my petition here:
Let's End Dramatized Reporting of "Doomsday" Stories - The Vulnerable Get Suicidal
It’s just not possible for the near future. Imagine you set up a colony on the top of Mount Everest. Now make that a mountain 30 kilometers tall instead of just 8.848 km tall. Now add in solar stor...
(more)It’s just not possible for the near future. Imagine you set up a colony on the top of Mount Everest. Now make that a mountain 30 kilometers tall instead of just 8.848 km tall. Now add in solar storms (far more radiation than you’d get after an all out nuclear war, needing bunkers where you are covered in thick layers of radiation shielding to survive) and temperatures so cold that dry ice forms at night for a third of the year. Also make it extremely dry, there is some ice but it is hard to extract. And no oxygen in the atmosphere. That’s more hospitable than Mars.
Do you think you could survive there independently of Earth? Or want to? Even with all the ideas of 3D printers and ingenious ways of using resources, all the ideas would be far easier to do in a desert almost anywhere on Earth, or in Antarctica or remote islands - there are large areas of uninhabited land on Earth. Uninhabited because, though technically we could perhaps live there, it would be so difficult and expensive, nobody sees the point in doing so. And to live in such a place as that, even Antarctica, which is much more hospitable than Mars or the Moon, you need the support of many people living in more hospitable places to support one person in Antarctica. You just wouldn’t have enough hours in the day to do everything that needed to be done if you have to make your own spacesuits, your own environment control system, your own tools, components, radio, LCDs, microchips, etc etc.
Just a spacesuit is a complex piece of equipment like a mini spacesuit that costs of order two million dollars to build, not including design costs, see Robert Walker's answer to How much does a spacesuit cost?
I think it is well possible that we have settlement on the Moon in the near future. But I think it will be like a base in Antarctica, that in such an inhospitable environment, we are there with support many to one from people on Earth because what they do is of value to Earth, including pure research and quite possibly some mining of materials such as water to export to LEO and eventually metals perhaps for Earth.
Also, a place for tourists and wealthy people from Earth to visit, to see the craters, mountains, maybe vast caves, ice at the poles, and to enjoy the low gravity. Location for making movies. Perhaps a place for exotic sports like human flight (which should be possible on the Moon). Maybe just as we have winter olympics now, in the future we may have lunar olympics with astronauts training and competing on the Moon. A place for art and music works. There could be many reasons to be there in additional to the many reasons for research.
But I don’t see just going there as a place to live much like you would migrate to somewhere else on Earth is at all feasible in the near future. And as for Mars, even less so, as it has planetary protection issues, and it’s most interesting studied from orbit at least for as long as we can’t find a biologically reversible way to send humans to the surface.
It might be possible in the future. But if we can live sustainably in space, it would be far easier to apply the same ideas to Earth, without the spacesuits and the thick layers of radiation shielding and habitats engineered to withstand tons per square meter outwards pressure, and environment control systems and need to generate all our own oxygen to breathe instead of just opening a window or adding some ventilation to our houses to let the air in. For instance, we could do this in the middle of a desert, using materials from the desert sand and rocks and from the air itself (which would count as rich in resources such as oxygen, CO2, nitrogen, water vapour etc by space standards), or in the sea, using just sea water and the atmosphere and a few rocks dredged up from the sea floor. If we can do that, we then might have a chance of setting up self sustaining colonies in space, as a much more difficult but perhaps feasible proposition. Before we can do that, no chance.
So until then, any astronauts in space settlements are pretty much totally dependent on Earth to keep going. You could give them supplies for decades, even for a century, or centuries. That’s possible. But not to keep going indefinitely into the indefinite future.
So, to make your scenario possible, assume that somehow they have got hold of not just ability to make their own food and oxygen etc, but have managed to stash a pile of spacesuits, and computer chips, and replacement components, enough to last them for a century. Perhaps on Earth they were all multi-billionaires and they used their wealth to set up this place on the Moon or wherever. In that situation, yes, it would be feasible in principle, but rather stupid. I can’t see this as a likely future scenario.
See also my Case For Moon First, available to read free online, also available for kindle
It’s best to think of spacesuits as more like mini spaceships than the suits of science fiction stories and movies, which seem more like aqualungs. They have to be pressurized to hold in atmosphere...
(more)It’s best to think of spacesuits as more like mini spaceships than the suits of science fiction stories and movies, which seem more like aqualungs. They have to be pressurized to hold in atmosphere at a pressure of tons per square meter, which makes them far more complex than any aqualung, also to withstand micrometeorites, also to keep the astronaut cool because the vacuum of space is a good insulator.
A typical NASA spacesuit would probably cost about $2 million dollars to build from scratch - that’s as a recurring item, not including the initial design costs. It requires about 5,000 hours of work and would take someone who had all the necessary skills about two and a half years to build, given supply of all the parts and materials needed. I get those details from Space suit evolution (NASA).
It’s possible this could change with future designs. But that’s the current situation, and for the foreseeable near future.
It’s true, it was plagiarism, though accidental, in the sense that when copying Michelle Obama’s sentiments, which speech writers often do that sort of thing and that doesn’t count as plagiarism, t...
(more)It’s true, it was plagiarism, though accidental, in the sense that when copying Michelle Obama’s sentiments, which speech writers often do that sort of thing and that doesn’t count as plagiarism, the speech writer left in her actual phrases, she says by mistake. She admitted to it and apologized see Behind Melania Trump’s Cribbed Lines, an Ex-Ballerina Who Loved Writing
And Melania Trump did rewrite a professionally written speech, but not by herself. No suggestion that the plagiarism was intentional, as this sort of thing can happen by accident easily, maybe the speech writer copied passages from Michelle Obama’s to use as a reference to stimulate her own ideas, which would not count as plagiarism, but then some parts of it in by mistake. But it shows they didn’t do basic tests; there are tools you can use, even free online webpages you can use to test your speeches for plagiarism, to make sure this never happens. This shows that they never checked her speech in this way after she got it rewritten. How Melania Trump’s Speech Veered Off Course and Caused an Uproar
See also We ran Melania Trump’s speech through a college plagiarism checker
Well, first of all the whole idea of a centralized modern police force is a modern idea. You may be surprised to know that it originated as recently as the early nineteenth century, in the UK and P...
(more)Well, first of all the whole idea of a centralized modern police force is a modern idea. You may be surprised to know that it originated as recently as the early nineteenth century, in the UK and Paris. Before then, there were local watchmen and constables but not organized country wide. The first municipal police force in the world goes back to Louis XIV in the seventeenth century. And before then, I’m not expert on the details :). No detectives, that also is a modern idea, in its modern form started in the nineteenth century. There were legal systems, those are very ancient. If you felt you were dealt with unjustly you might take your case to a powerful local lord or the king or queen, or you might just try to pursue it yourself in some way. China had its system of Prefects responsible for each district. I’m not sure how it all worked back then, but nothing resembling a modern police force for sure.
History of law enforcement in the United Kingdom
Early police in the UK - the first police were called Peelers, not Bobbies - that came later. Sir Robert Peel and his 'bobbies'
Also they are not needed, even don’t make much sense for a small tribe of say a dozen or a few dozen people. It wouldn’t make a lot of sense to have a full time policeman. Instead perhaps you’d go to the tribal chief for justice. People to this day still live in small tribes in the forests, and they don’t have police. So police are needed because we have become a large society where people don’t know each other, and even then, large societies have operated in the past with nothing resembling a modern police force.
So society wouldn’t fall apart without police. But it would probably be a choatic interim period and many things would become more difficult.
I’m not expert in this, just thought I’d add this as there are some very incorrect answers here that suggest society can’t function at all without police. It certainly can and people wouldn’t have to go amok and start lynching everyone just because there are no police to keep them in check. But it might be a different matter if people who are used to police being there all the time suddenly find there aren’t any, until they develop new conventions. Eventually probably they would reinvent the police seems to me.
See also the wikipedia article on Police has a long history section that looks good: Police
The answer is, probably it would if we were headed for one, but we aren’t headed for one in the near future, not for the next 100,000 years.
This mainly reproduces my answer to When can we expect th...
(more)The answer is, probably it would if we were headed for one, but we aren’t headed for one in the near future, not for the next 100,000 years.
This mainly reproduces my answer to When can we expect the next ice age? But the question is slightly different so don’t recommend that they be merged.
I’m assuming this refers to the next period of glaciation, or what’s popularly called an “ice age” as technically speaking we are already in an interglacial within an ice age - it counts as an ice age because we have ice at the poles, and for long periods of geological history the poles were ice free. That’ happens because the North pole’s Arctic ocean is enclosed by land masses and we have land at the South pole, both unusual situations that happen rather rarely in the geological record as the continents drift:
So, in that sense, of what is popularly called an “ice age”, then up to a seminal paper in 1976, it was thought that we were headed for a new ice age quite soon. But in that paper a nineteenth century theory called the Milankovitch cycles was confirmed, according to which ice ages arise due to the interactions of several slowly changing properties of the Earth.
This is the best summary I've seen of it anywhere:
For details see Variation in the Equation of Time.
The new research starting in 2002 showed that we are not headed for an ice age for about 100,000 years, whatever happens.
That’s because of the variation in eccentricity of the Earth's orbit cycle. We are headed towards a time when the Earth's orbit is almost circular, and when that happens, then the other Milankovitch cycles have almost no effect.
The last time this happened was 400,000 years ago. The Antropogenic CO2 will make a difference there, make the Earth a bit warmer than it otherwise would be, and the CO2 we have already added, if not removed in some way, will affect our climate subtly for tens of thousands of years into the future, and may cause the Antarctic ice sheet to melt eventually. But we weren't headed for a new ice age for 100,000 years anyway according to this study which I think is now generally accepted.
They found that our current CO2 levels would have to be as low as 220 ppm to enter a new glaciation before 100,000 years from now. That is lower than the 280 ppm of CO2 we had for the 10,000 years leading up to 1750.
A couple of extracts from the paper:
"The small amplitude of future insolation variations is exceptional. One of the few past analogs (13) occurred at about 400,000 years before the present, overlapping part of MIS- 11. Then and now, very low eccentricity values coincided with the minima of the 400,000-year eccentricity cycle. Eccentricity will reach almost zero within the next 25,000 years, damping the variations of precession considerably."
...
"Most CO2 scenarios led to an exceptionally long interglacial from 5000 years before the present to 50,000 years from now (see the bottom panel of the figure), with the next glacial maximum. Only for CO2 concentrations less than 220 ppmv was an early entrance into glaciation simulated.!"
On the Precession as a Cause of Pleistocene Variations of the Atlantic Ocean Water Temperatures
That of course is well below any CO2 levels including pre-industrial levels. CO2 was at 280 ppm for 10,000 years up to the mid C17, it was 399 ppm for the global averaged yearly average temperatures for 2015 (Annual temperature means). It's set to reach over 400 ppm for the average for this year, as you can see from the monthly figures:.
We are also possibly headed for a “mini ice age” for the next 30 years. The name is dramatic but it doesn’t actually mean a glaciation period. Last time it happened then it got cold enough for people to skate on the river Thames in London. But it’s a warmer world now, and it’s just a fraction of a degree temporary reduction in temperature if it happens at all, as it is just an unproven theory at present.
If it is correct, not verified yet, this may offset some of the effects of climate change for a few decades, not reverse the effects, just appear to slow it down - though of course it has no effect on ocean acidification. However, except for the effects on the oceans, this may give us a bit of a breather. It would of course still be urgent to do something about it as, after leveling off for a few decades, the temperatures would then rapidly soar to the predicted values for 30 years from now. The global temperatures would not be expected to fall at all during this period even if the theory is correct.
This research was widely misreported, with newspaper headlines saying dramatic things such as that the sun’s output would decrease by 60% for 30 years. That indeed would have a very dramatic effect on climate if true. Actually the paper said the number of sunspots would decrease by 60%, a little bit of a difference there (British ironic understatement :) ).
See The 'mini ice age' hoopla is a giant failure of science communication
Also even the worst projections of climate change will not take us out of our current geological ice age, at least not for a long time. If eventually the Antarctic ice sheet did melt, that would count as coming out of the geological ice age, but that is not going to happen for thousands of years. The Earth has been far warmer than this in the past.
See also:
A Short Introduction to Climate Change
ESRL Global Monitoring Division
This mainly reproduces my answer to my answer to When can we expect the next ice age? But the question is slightly different so don’t recommend that they be merged.
Also in my answer to the other question I add a bit about why we are concerned about the global warming - it’s mainly because it is happening so quickly. We are not headed for anything unusual compared to geological history, but we are headed there rather more rapidly than usual, and our world has many people who are dependent on current climate conditions, and again they could adapt, if the change was slow enough, but we are talking about changes here within a single generation.
I’m assuming this refers to the next period of glaciation, or what’s popularly called an “ice age” as technically speaking we are already in an interglacial within an ice age - it counts as an ice ...
(more)I’m assuming this refers to the next period of glaciation, or what’s popularly called an “ice age” as technically speaking we are already in an interglacial within an ice age - it counts as an ice age because we have ice at the poles, and for long periods of geological history the poles were ice free. That’ happens because the North pole’s Arctic ocean is enclosed by land masses and we have land at the South pole, both unusual situations that happen rather rarely in the geological record as the continents drift:
So, in that sense, of what is popularly called an “ice age”, then up to a seminal paper in 1976, it was thought that we were headed for a new ice age quite soon. But in that paper a nineteenth century theory called the Milankovitch cycles was confirmed, according to which ice ages arise due to the interactions of several slowly changing properties of the Earth.
This is the best summary I've seen of it anywhere:
For details see Variation in the Equation of Time.
The new research starting in 2002 showed that we are not headed for an ice age for about 100,000 years, whatever happens.
That’s because of the variation in eccentricity of the Earth's orbit cycle. We are headed towards a time when the Earth's orbit is almost circular, and when that happens, then the other Milankovitch cycles have almost no effect.
The last time this happened was 400,000 years ago. The Antropogenic CO2 will make a difference there, make the Earth a bit warmer than it otherwise would be, and the CO2 we have already added, if not removed in some way, will affect our climate subtly for tens of thousands of years into the future, and may cause the Antarctic ice sheet to melt eventually. But we weren't headed for a new ice age for 100,000 years anyway according to this study which I think is now generally accepted.
They found that our current CO2 levels would have to be as low as 220 ppm to enter a new glaciation before 100,000 years from now. That is lower than the 280 ppm of CO2 we had for the 10,000 years leading up to 1750.
A couple of extracts from the paper:
"The small amplitude of future insolation variations is exceptional. One of the few past analogs (13) occurred at about 400,000 years before the present, overlapping part of MIS- 11. Then and now, very low eccentricity values coincided with the minima of the 400,000-year eccentricity cycle. Eccentricity will reach almost zero within the next 25,000 years, damping the variations of precession considerably."
...
"Most CO2 scenarios led to an exceptionally long interglacial from 5000 years before the present to 50,000 years from now (see the bottom panel of the figure), with the next glacial maximum. Only for CO2 concentrations less than 220 ppmv was an early entrance into glaciation simulated.!"
On the Precession as a Cause of Pleistocene Variations of the Atlantic Ocean Water Temperatures
That of course is well below any CO2 levels including pre-industrial levels. CO2 was at 280 ppm for 10,000 years up to the mid C17, it was 399 ppm for the global averaged yearly average temperatures for 2015 (Annual temperature means). It's set to reach over 400 ppm for the average for this year, as you can see from the monthly figures:.
We are also possibly headed for a “mini ice age” for the next 30 years. The name is dramatic but it doesn’t actually mean a glaciation period. Last time it happened then it got cold enough for people to skate on the river Thames in London. But it’s a warmer world now, and it’s just a fraction of a degree temporary reduction in temperature if it happens at all, as it is just an unproven theory at present.
If it is correct, not verified yet, this may offset some of the effects of climate change for a few decades, not reverse the effects, just appear to slow it down - though of course it has no effect on ocean acidification. However, except for the effects on the oceans, this may give us a bit of a breather. It would of course still be urgent to do something about it as, after leveling off for a few decades, the temperatures would then rapidly soar to the predicted values for 30 years from now. The global temperatures would not be expected to fall at all during this period even if the theory is correct.
This research was widely misreported, with newspaper headlines saying dramatic things such as that the sun’s output would decrease by 60% for 30 years. That indeed would have a very dramatic effect on climate if true. Actually the paper said the number of sunspots would decrease by 60%, a little bit of a difference there (British ironic understatement :) ).
See The 'mini ice age' hoopla is a giant failure of science communication
Also even the worst projections of climate change will not take us out of our current geological ice age, at least not for a long time. If eventually the Antarctic ice sheet did melt, that would count as coming out of the geological ice age, but that is not going to happen for thousands of years. The Earth has been far warmer than this in the past. What makes it difficult for us is not the absolute temperature, but the rate at which it is changing. Especially, plants can’t move quickly, as they need to seed a new generation to move, which for trees can take decades. And animals also can be sensitive to small changes in temperature and may have nowhere nearby to move to, for instance in tropical rainforests, a small increase in average temperature can lead to many extinctions because the creatures there are adapted to very stable conditions.
Also we have many people that live in low lying places, with Bangladesh most affected, which would be flooded by small increases in sea level. The sea level rises through thermal expansion of the oceans, and there is a delayed effect there - the warming we’ve already had will cause the sea to continue to rise for centuries into the future. https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/... Other effects also increase the levels such as melting of land ice in Greenland and Antarctica (changes in the amount of sea ice in the Arctic have no effect since ice floating on the sea is in equilibrium with the ocean already) Sea Level Rise -- National Geographic.
And the increasing warmth of the Earth’s lower atmosphere leads to more energy in the system so increasing the potential for extreme weather events like tornadoes, hurricanes etc and increasing rainfall and flooding. 13. How does climate change affect the strength and frequency of floods, droughts, hurricanes, and tornadoes?
So - those effects are mainly important because they affect humans, because we have chosen to colonize low lying places, and because we create buildings, roads etc that are affected by extreme weather events, and our agriculture also. But the rising temperature affects other species, so does the acidification of the oceans. The land species could move if the temperature rises happened more slowly. The ocean acidification happens from time to time naturally, over geological timespans, in that case it does lead to extinction of corals. Which then get replaced, interestingly, by a completely different mix of species next time corals independently evolve in a lower pH ocean. So - there an ocean without coral is a natural thing that happens from time to time, but is unnatural for us if we end up with one, because we are in a geological era that has lower levels of CO2 and so normally has coral reefs.
I think it helps to have this perspective, that climate change is not taking Earth into any kind of unprecedented state, it’s been far warmer and had far more acid oceans too in the past. It’s the speed of the change (which affects many species), plus the fact that there are so many humans dependent on the climate conditions as they are now in various ways, that is the main matter of concern.
See also:
Adding to the other answers here, assuming you mean dying of “old age” not predation or accidents or illness, lobsters are supposed to be “functionally immortal” but as they get older, it gets hard...
(more)Adding to the other answers here, assuming you mean dying of “old age” not predation or accidents or illness, lobsters are supposed to be “functionally immortal” but as they get older, it gets harder and harder for them to molt. If the molt takes too long they will die mid molt.
“According to Carl Wilson, lead lobster biologist with the Maine Department of Marine Resources, between 10 and 15 percent of lobsters die naturally each year as they shed their exoskeletons because the exertion proves to be too much. Each molting process requires more and more energy than the one before it as lobsters grow in size.
“Finally, older crustaceans stop shedding their exoskeletons altogether—a clue that they’re near the end of their lifespans. They run out of metabolic energy to molt, and their worn-and-torn shells contract bacterial infections that weaken them. Shell disease, in which bacteria seeps into lobster shells and forms scar tissue, adheres the crustaceans’ bodies to their shells. The lobster, attempting to molt, gets stuck and dies. The disease also makes lobsters susceptible to other ailments, and in extreme cases, the entire shell can rot, killing the animal inside.”
‘“Is that senescence? Maybe not in how we think about it,” says Jeffrey D. Shields, a marine science professor in the Virginia Institute of Marine Science of the College of William & Mary. “But it is senescence in the way that older people die of pneumonia.
How large could a lobster grow, if it could keep going through difficult molts?
However that leads to an interesting side question I think, for those of us interested in xenobiology and the possible biology of extraterrestrials. What if you had a civilization of lobster like creatures? They would be able to cure the diseases and they could invent machines to speed up the molt, so that they don’t die mid molt. Would they be able to live for ever?
I expect extra terrestrials with technology would develop the ability to extend their lives way beyond what is normal - we do already by a decade or so, average lifespan anyway if perhaps not so much for the maximum lifespan. But some might be able to do that more easily than others. Might it be that lobster type ETs, achieve immensely long lives, at an earlier technological stage than most? Certainly it would be a top priority to deal with that issue of 10 - 15% of your population dying each year mid molt.
In the case of crustaceans like the lobster there’s another issue, “squishy inside” modern arthropods (creatures with an exoskeleton) never get quite as large as the largest “squishy outside” creatures like elephants and especially blue whales. arthropod | animal phylum And the lobster keeps getting larger as it grows older. So eventually surely it will hit a limit of size. It gets oxygen through tiny holes in its skeleton - and as it gets larger, its exoskeleton’s area goes up as the square of its length but its insides volume go up as the cube. So it’s increasingly hard to get enough oxygen trough the holes in its exoskeleton to supply its body.
With animals with lungs the capability to get oxygen goes up nearly as the cube like their volume, because our lungs are filled with fractal structures that expose an immense surface area to the atmosphere inside our lungs. So this not such an issue for us.
So arthropods to get arbitrarily large they’d need to develop lungs, or fractal structures of some sort to be able to expose enough surface area to get enough oxygen into their bodies to keep going. See also Could Insects Reach the Size of Humans? which mentions some other potential issues with immensely large arthoropods.
In the past some arthoropods actually got larger than humans, in the sea, but that may be due to higher levels of oxygen in the atmosphere.
Fossil of world's biggest bug found
Fossil of Jaekelopterus rhenaniae - this ancient species of fresh water “sea scorpion”, Jaekelopterus, grew to 2.5 meters in length (8 feet). May be due to higher levels of oxygen.
Probably not, at least not large moons in close by orbits. It has satellites from Earth, but they can only stay in the so called “frozen orbits” because of the Mascons - the concentrations of mass on the Moon.
(more)...
Probably not, at least not large moons in close by orbits. It has satellites from Earth, but they can only stay in the so called “frozen orbits” because of the Mascons - the concentrations of mass on the Moon.
As satellites orbit the Moon their orbits are tugged one way and then the other by the Mascons, and these keep changing the shape of the orbits. This doesn’t make them spiral down - it's not a tidal effect. Instead, it varies their ellipticity, sometimes more, and sometimes less elliptical. Eventually, in most orbits around the Moon the orbits become so elliptical they intersect the surface of the Moon and the moonlet crashes.
"FROZEN ORBITS" OF THE MOON
In an early experiment, the Apollo astronauts released a satellite PS-1 from the command module as it orbited the Moon. It lasted for over a year before it hit the Moon. But the next attempt PS-2 lasted only 35 days.
PS-2 released from the command module by Apollo 15 lasted only 35 days before it hit the Moon, although PS-1 in a similar orbit lasted over a year, Artist’s impression, see NASA - NSSDCA - Spacecraft - Details
Because of the mascoms, some orbits are more stable. And there are a few "frozen orbits" where a spacecraft can orbit the Moon indefinitely. So those are good for mission planners who want to orbit the Moon for a long time without using a lot of fuel. But would be hard for a natural satellite to get into them.
I got this from the NASA page: Bizarre Lunar Orbits where they say
"There are actually a number of 'frozen orbits' where a spacecraft can stay in a low lunar orbit indefinitely. They occur at four inclinations: 27º, 50º, 76º, and 86º"
With moonlets of moons, the tidal effect isn't that important over short timescales. And after all even the Moon's orbit is not stable indefinitely, over billions of years.
However it depends how close you are to the Moon. There’s another kind of orbit, that orbits the Moon in the opposite direction of what you expect, called the Distant Reverse Orbit or DRO. In that orbit, the moon is really in a kind of orbit around Earth, same period as the Moon but more elliptical. It could in principle even dip right down to LEO at one end of its orbit, and then go as far as that the other side of the Moon at the other end of its orbit, half a lunar month later.
By Kepler’s equal areas swept out in equal times, it would orbit Earth much faster than the Moon when it is between the Moon and Earth, and much slower when further away. So starting from a position behind the Moon at the same distance from Earth as the Moon, it would catch up with Moon on the Earth side of it, get well ahead of it, cross its orbit on the way out, slow down and then fall behind again - but as seen from Earth it is just constantly orbiting Earth in one direction.
As seen from the Moon this looks like a moon of the Moon. These orbits are far more stable than the normal orbits of the Moon and can last for at least a century, possibly longer. That’s why NASA studied them as a possible way to return an asteroid or a boulder from an asteroid to the vicinity of the Moon, safely far away from Earth.
Now from time to time Earth captures mini moons like this
Path of a simulated mini moon. It approaches Earth along the yellow path, orbits it in this complex fashion for a number of "orbits" then escapes into interplanetary space again along the red line. At any time Earth probably has at least one asteroid of diameter a meter or more in an orbit like this, along with many other smaller "mini moons". The inset shows 1999 JM8 which is much larger than any of the expected mini moons, just included because the smaller mini moons are expected to look much like their larger cousins, only smaller. From: Simulations Show Mini-Moons Orbiting Earth
Though they usually end up orbiting Earth, I don’t know if it is possible for a mini moon like that to end up orbiting the Moon, like the asteroid retrieval idea - but it seems possible - to do that it would need to get into an orbit that takes it around Earth exactly every 28 days. It would be quite hard to get into I think, because -suppose its orbit is once every 29 days for instance - it’s soon going to hit the Moon or be deflected away into some other orbit.
So I think it’s fairly unlikely, but - there are lots of small mini moons out there and we couldn’t spot them at the distance of the Moon or even if in such large DRO that they came, say, half way to Earth.
So, I’d hesitate to say it’s impossible that the Moon might have a temporary moon just a meter or so across, or stretching the definition of a moon, perhaps cms across in a DRO. Haven’t come across any paper or anything on that idea either way. But even a DRO is not long term stable so it’s unlikely to stay there for billions of years on end. At most a few centuries perhaps.
However that’s just for our Moon, because it has these huge Mascons. For a moon without mascons, it could well have a small satellite that orbits it long term. There are even ideas of places in the solar system where it may happen - well mainly its Saturn’s moon Rhea, its second largest moon and a long way from the planet, and at one time it was thought to have a ring system, with most of it within its Hill sphere (which is the mathematical limit for moons to stay long term).
If this was true, it would be the only moon known with a ring system, which you could think of as lots of really tiny moonlets.
This shows where it is relative to the rings and the other moons - a long way out though not as far as Titan:
Sadly, later observations to try to confirm this found no evidence of any ring system. "A very sad story": No rings for Rhea after all
But the jury is still out as to whether it has a ring system that somehow eluded discovery because those observations only gave an upper limit on the density of the ring - it could still have a thinner ring than the original observations suggested.
Also it it has these intriguing blue marks all around its equator, which may be the marks of de-orbiting ring material:
So it might be that it forms rings from time to time. And it may or may not have a very thin ring system right now.
If Rhea does have a ring system, then just like Saturn it might have a somewehat larger (but not very big) shepherding moonlet outside of it helping to keep the material in place around the moon.
Rhea is a particularly good candidate because it is a near spherical moon (so not got the problem of irregular shape) - so if it doesn't have Mascons like the Moon, orbits could be very stable around it. And though tidally locked with Saturn with a period of 4 days, that’s not likely to have significant tidal effects on a tiny moonlet unless it has an underground ocean.
See my Robert Walker's answer to Do moons have moons?
Also my Mini moons and asteroid redirect missions
in my book Case For Moon First which is available to read free online, in its entirety, also on kindle.
Just to add, if you use microtonal music, then often C# will differ in pitch from Db and C## may also differ in pitch from D. For instance in 31 equal, a commonly used tuning that’s a kind of exten...
(more)Just to add, if you use microtonal music, then often C# will differ in pitch from Db and C## may also differ in pitch from D. For instance in 31 equal, a commonly used tuning that’s a kind of extended quarter comma meantone with very pure major thirds, the sharps and flats go like this: C, Dbb, C#, Db, C##, D, …
You still get enharmonic equivalences, now it’s E## = Gbb and C###= Ebb etc.
In extended pythagorean tuning, and other just intonation tunings, or tunings based on an infinite lattice of intervals, then they may never join up.
The pattern can get very complex if you use a tuning with the fifth tempered to sharper than the 700 cents of twelve equal as then for instance Db becomes flatter than C#.
C … Db .. C# … D …
This for instance is the pattern you get for 53 equal, a popular microtonal tuning which is a slightly tempered extended pythagorean tuning.
Also, now you have to go up to four sharps or flats for enharmonic equivalence. E.g. D#### = Bbbbb and E#### = Cbbb
For more on this, see Robert Walker's answer to To be totally unconventional, should a piano with keys of E# and B# be produced? Would it be more versatile and more interesting?
First on latitude, then the Greeks studying the results of the measurements by the explorer Pytheas who voyaged to Britain and beyond, in 325 BC, used several methods to measure latitude, including
A gonom is just any vertical stick such as the triangular blade here, which you use to cast a shadow. You can estimate your latitude from the length of the shadow at summer solstice Sundial Taganrog
He went as far north as the Arctic circle (observing the Midnight sun), ending up at a place he called Thule, which he thought was an island to the north of Britain, but from its latitude was probably Trondheim in Norway.
The Greek Marinus of Tyre (AD 70–130) was the first to assign a latitude and longitude to every place on his maps.
From the late ninth century, the Arabian Kamal was used in equatorial regions, to measure the height of Polaris above the horizon. This instrument could only be used in latitudes close to the horizon.
This is how you use it:
The idea is you hold the string between your teeth and then position the card so that the lower edge is on the horizon and you can just see Polaris above it. Then by counting the number of knots, equally spaced along the string, between your teeth and the card, you can figure out your latitude.
The Mariner's astrolabe which gives the angle of the sun from the horizon at noon, or the angle of a known star at night, was used from around the fifteenth century to the seventeenth century.
The Backstaff, which measures the length of a shadow was used from the sixteenth century
A Jacob's staff, from John Sellers’ Practical Navigation(1672)
It was replaced by more accurate methods such as the Davis quadrant and then the Elton's quadrant in the sixteenth century
Elton’s quadrant from Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, No. 423, Vol 37, 1731-1732. Adds an index arm with spirit levels for an artificial horizon to Davis quadrant,
The Sextant, which is still used to this day, was mentioned by Isaac Newton (1643–1727) in his unpublished writings, and first implemented about 1730 by John Hadley (1682–1744) and Thomas Godfrey (1704–1749)
It has a system of mirrors which lets you superimpose the sun on your view of the horizon, and by adjusting it up and down you can adjust it until the sun is just touching the horizon, then by reading the angle from the dial you can figure out your latitude. It can also be used with stars such as Polaris at night, and also to measure the angles between any other objects. Using sextant swing
See also: History_of_navigation and Ocean_exploration. Also History_of_latitude_measurements (section which I just added to wikipedia after discovering they don’t seem to have an article or section about it, marked it as “needing expansion”)
FINDING LONGITUDE
Longitude is much harder, indeed up to the seventeenth century it was really hard to determine it, leading to the famous Scilly naval disaster of 1707 when many ships were wrecked on the isles of Scilly, due to an error of longitude, leading Britain to set up the Board of Longitude to solve the problem.
If you can tell the exact time, then you can find your longitude for instance by measuring the elevation above the horizon of a star just before it sets or soon after it rises. The problem is though, that this needs you to know the time exactly. That’s easy for us nowadays but not so easy when you have to rely on pendulum clocks, which don’t keep time that accurately and anyway don’t work properly on a boat or indeed on any of the vehicles they had for land travel back then either, it wouldn’t work very well in horse and carriages either.
Once you have the time, you can find the longitude by comparing the time it reaches a particular elevation with the time it reaches that same elevation, say, at Greenwich (usual zero line for longitude).
Early methods of finding longitude approximately include the Lunar distance method. The idea there is to look at the position of the Moon in the sky. Since it moves against the background stars quite quickly, then if you know where it is against the stars, you get a good estimate of the time. Typically they used the angle from the bright star Regulus which they could measure, and then compare with tables to find the current time in Greenwich approximately.
Galileo had another idea, to use the moons of Jupiter as a kind of clock in the sky. He saw them disappear behind or in front of Jupiter - but couldn't tell whether they were behind or in front, and he had a lot of trouble telling the moons apart at first, but eventually got a breakthrough when they all vanished, and using that as his starting point for all the orbital periods he was able to figure it out. This is about Galileo's observations. Galileo Galilei
But that wasn’t nearly accurate enough, as Nicholas Claude Fabri de Peiresc in Aixea found out in 1612
Luckily the moons of Jupiter pass into its shadow from time to time. Galileo observed the first such eclipse in the same year 1612, and those eclipses can be measured very accurately.
Jupiter and its satellites, during the Juno satellite approach to Jupiter - notice how the satellites disappear from time to time - that’s because they get eclipsed by the shadow of Jupiter.
(added a bit more about Jupiter’s satellites in a comment)
So, anyway, he proposed to use a table of eclipses of Jupiter’s moons to solve the problem of finding your longitude at sea. He even invented a special instrument, the Celatone, to attach a telescope to your face in front of one of your eyes to help observing the eclipses at sea.
Reconstructed Celatone for observing the moons of Jupiter at sea to use to find the longitude by timing the eclipses Celatone (ricostruzione)
But he never published his table of eclipses, they remained in his unpublished work, maybe he felt they weren’t accurate enough. Later, Cassini did, and they tried all sorts of things including gimbaled observing seats to stay steady while observing Jupiter. But they couldn't get it to work at sea with enough accuracy and were still working on this when the problem was solved in a different way by John Harrison
It was easier to do this on land. In France they did use it on the land and found that all the existing maps had the west coast of France 1 degree to far West, causing King Louis XIV reportedly to say that he was losing more land to the astronomers than to his enemies :).
Eventually the problem was solved by John Harrison
Harrison’s first chronometer H1 marine chronometer It uses rocking bars and coiled springs in place of a pendulum, so would work better on a moving ship.
His later “sea watch” - File:H4 low 250.jpg
The clockwork movement inside his sea watch - File:Harrison H4 clockwork 1.jpg
If you have the exact time, you can also figure out your longitude in the daytime by measuring the elevation of the sun, so long as you know your latitude. But small errors in latitude can lead to large errors in calculation of the longitude.
In 1837, Thomas Hubbard Sumner was returning to Britain and on a cloudy day he only managed one brief observation of the sun. So he didn’t know his latitude that accurately, but he was a brilliant mathematician, and in that situation, his life depending on the result he invented the idea of the Sumner line. He made three different assumptions of latitude, and then based on his sun elevation measurement, he then went through the calculations of longitude, and found that the three poionts he plotted lay on a straight line.
Image from https://timeandnavigation.si.edu...
Luckily that line intersected with a lighthouse and was a safe direction to travel. So he just navigated along the direction of that line until he reached the lighthouse. See Original Sumner lines introduced to the LOP
On longitude, then History of longitude
You could, but it is likely to be a long wait, depending where you are. And depends also whether the hole is surrounded by porous gravel, say, then it will never fill up. While if it is a hole, say...
(more)You could, but it is likely to be a long wait, depending where you are. And depends also whether the hole is surrounded by porous gravel, say, then it will never fill up. While if it is a hole, say, in clay, it will fill up (and also get very muddy).
But if you are close to a stream and the stream rises in spate, it might fill up quickly.
Where I live, we have streams that drain the mountains, and because they have a big catchment area, and we get a lot of heavy rain, they can rise quickly. Normally just a quarter meter perhaps. But in very rare cases much more than that. But quarter of a meter difference could do it.
Like this but it’s a different place
Or even more dramatic
We had one spate a bit like that here. I slept right through it but others heard the river suddenly start to roar. And I woke up next day to see that a flood had been through the ground floor of the house I was in to some depth, a foot or so, and outside, the mark of dampness against the bridge showed that it had risen well over a meter in height against the bridge.
Sorry no scale there, but you can walk under that bridge with space to spare above your head. The water rose right up to where the arch starts in a fast spate here about a decade ago, Suddenly in the middle of the night. Next day it was gone, all that was left was wet marks and mud in the house. This is right by where I lived at the time, just the other side of that bridge in fact.. It was an unusual flood, the sort of one you’ll probably only get once in a lifetime here.
Similarly, if you are in a cave system, then after heavy rain, the caves can flood. Indeed speleologists can get drowned by suddenly rising water. So in that case it could take just an hour or so, even less. That is if there’s some water course - which may seem just a ditch, even dry, but then suddenly floods and fills the hole.
But now, suppose that it is a newly dug hole, lined with concrete, waterproof, like a swimming pool but not filled in yet, and nowhere near any stream, just on its own, nothing drains into it. In that case it depends on how much rain you get per day or per week etc.
So - now lets make things as easy for you as possible and suppose you are in India and it is monsoon time
And let’s put you in Cherrapunji, India on June 15-16, 1995. Then you can expect the world record for 48 hours of just under 2.5 meters. So you’ll get out of your hole / swimming pool in a couple of days, maybe sooner. Also since it’s India it’s going to be warm so you aren’t going to die of cold. World's Heaviest 48-Hour Rainfall Confirmed as More Than 98 Inches
That’s unusual but if you are in a hole there in July you can expect over 3 meters of rain a month, so depending of course on the depth of the hole, you won’t need to wait more than a couple of weeks or so.
Now if your hole catches the runoff from a street or a roof, it will fill much more quickly, perhaps in a day or two. E.g. to make the calculations easier, if it is a 3 meters deep, 1 meter wide square hole and there’s a 3 meters wide road next to it, and say 10 meters of that road drains into it, or a similarly sized area of yards or roofs drains into it, then it will fill in about a day, on average, in July in Cherrapunji.
However, if your hole drains into a stream or ditch then it might never fill up. And if you are in a hot climate it’s going to evaporate, probably as fast as it fills. If it’s in the Sahara desert, you’ll be there for centuries and if there is any rain it dries up, may get flowers blooming but if you are just in a hole in a random spot in the desert it’s not going to fill with water especially since it is just a hole in some sand.
But if you are in a wadi in a desert, then it will fill if you are lucky enough to be there just before the annual floods.
Though you’ll want to make a quick getaway once you are out of your hole in that case :)
Yes it’s just a possibly dwarf planet in the sense of rounded under gravity, There ae 27 possibly large enough and numerous other candidates already discovered. Including Eris, Pluto, Makemake, Haumea, Quaoar, and Sedna
It orbits always beyond Neptune, outermost green circle in this diagram, the new possible dwarf planet’s orbit in yellow - and it is no threat at all to Earth.
They often find Trans neptunian objects like that. I’m not sure why this one got in the news so much.
This is just a list of the largest ones found to date, ones large enough to be roughly spherical.
List of possible dwarf planets
They have found many much smaller ones too. There’s a plot of all the objects they have discovered so far outside of Neptune here
Plot of the Outer Solar System
And a list of the known Trans Neptunian Objects - ones that orbit the solar system with orbits on average beyond Neptune, here
First of all in twelve equal then E# = F and B# = C. So then the keys will just duplicate the existing keys, which isn’t very interesting. But what about tunings which make these so called “enharmo...
(more)First of all in twelve equal then E# = F and B# = C. So then the keys will just duplicate the existing keys, which isn’t very interesting. But what about tunings which make these so called “enharmonic pitches” actually different in pitch? Well then the answer is, Yes!.
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
First, a bit of history. The idea of using split keys goes back to the sixteenth century and late fifteeenth century. The 12 note approach was still quite new at that time, and developed gradually by adding extra keys to the earlier “music recta” gamut of Bb-F-C-G-D-A-E-B. to get to the full twelve tone keyboard (e.g. Eb-G#). by the early fourteenth century.
Since the tuning could start at different points in that cycle of fifths, and since the pythagorean twelve tone tuning doesn’t close out after twelve fifths, it was natural to continue the circle of fifths to add extra notes, and organs with some split keys were constructed in the late 15th century - the 1468 Cesena Cathedral (with three extra keys) and the 1480 Lucca (2 extra notes), the earliest in the list on page 162 and following of Italian split-keyboard instruments with fewer than nineteen divisions to the octaeve - Denzil Wraight.
The 1480 Lucca organ for instance might have been tuned from Ab - D# with alternatives of Eb/D# and G#/Ab)
Also theoretically, in the early fifteenth century, Prosdicimo of Beldemando (1412 or 1413), proposes a 17-note Pythagorean tuning of Gb-A# (comment by Margo Schulter in The Xenharmonic Alliance II where she gives more details).
But let’s leave Pythagorean tunings for now as the way the sharps and flats work for them is rather unintuitive, will come back to that later in the section on 53 equal.
LETS START WITH NINETEEN TONE
Let’s start with Gioseffo Zarlino (1517–1590) with his nineteen tone keyboard. Has enharmonic versions of all the “black keys” plus extra keys between B and C and between E and F for a B#=Cb and E#=Fb.
Zarlino probably tuned this to a slightly irregular tuning with some of the intervals larger than others. He was particularly keen on a system called 2/7 comma meantone (see Zarlino's 2/7-comma meantone memperament) which has none of the intervals exactly pure with their partials locked in, and instead has them all more or less equally resonant. See An historical survey of meantone temperaments
However other sixteenth century writers, Costely (1570) and Salinas (1577) as well as Praetorius in 1619 describe keyboards of similar design tuned with an equal spacing between the keys.
Here is a realization of one of Costeley’s pieces, Seigneur Dieu ta pitié in Finale by Roger Wibberley
More exactly, they tuned to 1/3 comma meantone, which is almost exactly nineteen equal. It gives pure minor thirds and their inversion, the major sixths (quarter comma meantone gives pure major thirds and minor sixths). See 1-3 Syntonic Comma Meantone.
It works because if you keep stacking minor thirds (6/5), then after going up by a minor third 19 times and dropping down by an octave five times, you get close to an octave above the original note, and in the process you go to every key on the keyboard.
You can see this because, since you multiply the frequency by 6/5 for a pure minor third (the interval between the fifth and the sixth harmonics) and divide by 2 to go down an octave, that process takes you to: (6/5)^19/2^4 = 1.9967, very close to 2/1 for the octave.
In this system the sharps and flats are ordered as
C, C♯, D♭, D and E♯ = F♭ and B♯ = C♭.
The enharmonic equivalences are:
E♯ = F♭ . B♯ = C♭. Also C## = Db, Dbb = C# etc
This of course also means it has nineteen keys instead of the usual twelve.
So, what did it sound like? Well here at least is a recording of Edward Parmentier playing a 17th-Century French Harpsichord Music in 1/3 comma meantone ( free on Spotify). It’s played on a Keith Hill copy of a 1640 harpsichord by Joannes Couchet (information from: Music: A Mathematical Offering)
For a modern piece in this tuning, see for instance Easely Blackwood’s Fanfare in 19-EDO
“This tuning contains diatonic scales in which the major second spans three chromatic degrees, and the minor second two. Triads are smooth, but the scale sounds slightly out of tune because the leading tone seems low with respect to the tonic. Diatonic behavior is virtually identical to that of 12-note tuning, but chromatic behavior is very different. For example, a perfect fourth is divisible into two equal parts, while an augmented sixth and a diminished seventh sound identical. The Erude is in a sonata form where the first theme is diatonic and the second is chromatic. The development modulates entirely around the circle of nineteen fifths. An extended coda employs both diatonic and chromatic elements.”
ANOTHER EARLY KEYBOARD - THIRTY ONE TONE
Then there’s Nicola Vicentino who constructed his Archicembalo. It could be tuned in two different ways, but one of them was an extended quarter comma meantone system, almost exactly 31 equal - at least in theory. Here quarter comma meantone is a system with the major thirds almost exactly pure. Mathematically, if you stack 31 pure major thirds (multiply frequency by 5/4 thirty one times) and then drop down nine octaves (divide by two nine times), you get (5/4)^31/2^9 = 1.972 which is close to 2/1, the octave.
So this time, it’s not enough to have split keys of 19 equal. Instead he needed to have two keyboards, the top one with 17 keys (no accidentals between B and C or between E and F) and the bottom with 19 for a total of 36 notes to an octave. When he tuned it to extended quarter comma meantone he had some duplicate keys.
In this system, 31 equal temperament then you have double sharps and double flats with the pitches arranged like this, from, say, C to D:
B Cb B# C, D♭♭, C♯, D♭, C♯♯, D
So, now you have separate keys for E# and Fb, and separate keys for B# and Cb
Note that the B# is sharper than the Cb in this system.
The enharmonic equivalences now are:
B## = Dbb, Cbb = A## etc
This shows the notes consecutively with sharps and flats notation, screenshot from beta for next upload of my program Bounce Metronome Pro - this is its onscreen keyboard which you can use to play in the tuning using pc keyboard, and mouse.
Though it’s more often notated using half sharps and half flats like this
(screenshot from the Scala program)
Or in Ascii in various ways such as using + for half sharp and - for half flat.
C C+ C# Eb E- E
So now we have 31 different keys to play our music in.
However he might not have tuned it to an exact 31 equal. His description is a bit strange, he says that "in the same rows [in] which one plays the perfect fifths, there will one find also the major thirds more perfectly tuned than those which we use"
In other words that if you play say the C on the front keyboard with the sharper E on the back keyboard the result is more pure than usual. But that doesn’t make sense if it is in 31 equal or extended meantone because then C to E on the same keyboard should be pure already.
Karol Berger suggested that perhaps instead he used a somewhat uneven systemwith some of the tones up to 0.2 comma flat, ranging up to 1/3 comma sharp. See Theories of chromatic and Enharmonic Music in Late 16th Century Italiy - Chromatic systems (or non-systems) from Vicentino to Monteverdi. and summarized by Mark Lindley in . An historical survey of meantone temperaments to 1620
HUYGENS, EXTENDED MEANTONE, AND THIRTY ONE EQUAL
Huygens recognized that extended quarter comma meantone was almost exactly 31 equal in 1661. But whether earlier theorists realized that as well I don’t know. Huygens thought that Salinas said that Vicentino’s Archicembalo was tuned in 31 equal.
Huygens himself built a "mobile keyboard" consisting of 12 keys per octave that could be moved around to play different subsets of a set of 31 strings or pipes tuned to 31-et, so permitting play in all 31 keys of 31 equal. Details of how it worked not very clear but is clear it was an actual physical instrument. Quantifying Music. So this may be the first instrument actually tuned to 31 equal - rather than to extended meantone and then only approximating 31 equal because it’s meantone
WHAT ABOUT VICENTINO’S COMPOSITIONS?
So, what does extended meantone sound like? Here is a performance of one of Vicentino’s own compositions played on a 24 tone harpsichord tuned using an extended meantone system - presumably this is a piece that didn’t need all the pitches on his keyboard:
You can also hear a recording of a live performance of Vicentino played on a reconstructed Archicembalo, with many exotic transitions here Vicentino's enharmonic madrigals
DETAILS OF HIS COMPOSITIONAL TECHNIQUE WITH SOUND SAMPLES OF HIS COMPOSITIONAL EXAMPLES
This page goes into details of his compositional technique. It’s rather techy but if you scroll down the page, it also has many example fragments of his music to listen to Wild, Vicentino’s 31-tone Compositional Theory
FOKKER’S 31 EQUAL ORGAN IN THE NETHERLANDS
Adriaan Fokker' organ which still survives in the Netherlands is in 31 equal.
- he was composing for 31 equal back in the 1940s?
This is what it is like to play :)
You can also try your hand at playing an onscreen version of his keyboard tuned to thirty one equal here: fokker keyboard online though it’s only one note at a time with a bit of sustain so if you play two notes quickly you get some overlap.
FIFTY THREE EQUAL
Ellis’s 1885 translation of Helmholtz's "On the Sensations of Tone" published in 1885 has a long appendix describing many instruments of his day to explore many tones to the octave with modulation. He was particularly interested in 53 equal which is a kind of extended pythagorean - if you use pure fifths instead of pure major thirds and keep going you get a nearly exact 53 tone system. (3/2)^53/2^30 = 2.004, very close to an octave 2/1.
This system not only gives pure fifths. It also has close to pure major and minor thirds. and does decent approximations of some intervals with higher harmonics, such as 7/4 and 13/10. and 13/8, for list of some of them, see 53 equal temperament
This is Ellis’s description of Paul Whites harmonium designed to play in 53 equal in his appendix to his translation of Helmholtz’s On the Sensations of Tone.
See also: Full text of "On the sensations of tone as a physiological basis for the theory of music"
TRICKY TO NOTATE SHARPS AND FLATS IN TUNINGS LIKD 53–ET WITH THE FIFTH WIDER THAN TWELVE EQUAL
So now we have 53 different keys. It’s quite tricky to notate, as it is based on the pythagorean system.
When you have pure fifths, or indeed any fifths sharper than the ones of twelve equal, then you get the rather curious situation that the sharps and flats go like this:
C, Db C#, D
i.e. the flat of the note above is flatter than the sharp of the note below.
Why does that happen?
In the circle of fifthS:
Fb, Cb, Gb, Db, Ab, Eb, Bb. F, C, G, D, A, E, B, F#, C#, G#, D#, A#, E#, B# C##
then in twelve equal, as we know, Db is the same as C# and so on.
If the fifth you use is narrower than for twelve equal, as it is in 31 equal and 19 equal, then the notes in the cycle of fifth get closer together (before octave reduction), so the C# will be a bit flatter than for twelve equal and the Db will be a bit sharper so you get the order that seems most natural at first C, C#, Db,D
But if the fifth you use is wider than in twelve equal, it goes the other way around the notes get spread out further. So, the C# is a bit higher in pitch than in twelve equal and the Db is a bit lower in pitch so then it has to go C Db C# D. In 53 equal then the Db and C# are very close together too, like this:
C [90] Db [24] C# [90] D
For more about this see Pythagorean Tuning - further down the page she has a diagram showing how the flats and sharps interrelate.
53 EQUAL IS EVEN MORE CONFUSING WITH DOUBLE SHARPS AND DOUBLE FLATS
I fully expect your head to spin at this point, do feel free to skip to the next section if it does! Almost nobody finds this intuitive or easy. And you can get by fine without knowing the positions of the double and triple flats and sharps in these tunings.
You can manage fine just using # and b and then some symbol for one step in your tuning, e.g. / or \ to go up one step or down one step.
So anyway, it gets even more confusing when you go on to the double sharps and double flats. B#, of course, with the same circle of fifths reasoning,is sharper than C (and Cb is flatter than B). And the Ebb of course has to be flatter than the D (because it’s more than half way there already on its way down from the E, or you can figure that out from the same chain of fifths reasoning too). So, going as far as the double sharps and double flats, the order of the notes is:
C B# Db C# Ebb D
But we have many more notes to fit in here, another four indeed.
Calculation indented so easy to skip:
The perfect fifth is approximated as almost exactly 31 steps of 53 equal. So you can work it out from there
C G D = 62 % 53 = 9 (here 62 % 53 means the remainder on dividing 62 by 53)
So we have 9 notes in total to fit in there.
One chromatic semitone C G D A E B F C# is (7 *31) % 53 = 5. So C# is 5 steps higher than C.
The diatonic semitone is C G D A E B
(5 *31) % 53 = 49 so C at 53 is 4 steps higher than B.
One cycle of fifths is (12 *31) % 53 = 1. So B# is one step higher than C in (C, G, D, A, E, B, C#, G#, D#, A#, E#, B#) as expected from our intuitive reasoning above.
So, to summarise,
diatonic whole tone, e.g. C to D is 9 steps
diatonic semitone e.g B to C is 4 steps.
chromatic semitone, e.g. C to C# is 5 steps
a chain of twelve fifths reduced to the octave, e.g. C to B# is 1 step.Similarly Ebb is one step lower than D
(Dbb, Abb, Ebb, Bbb, Fb Cb, Gb, Db, Ab, Eb, Bb. F, C, G, D )
So filling in the section between B and C, since the chromatic semitone e.g. Db to Dbb etc is five steps, we can see that the Dbb is one step below C, the A## is one step above B, so it’s
Cb, B, A##, ?, Dbb, C, B#, ?, ?, Db, C#, ?, ?, Ebb, D
Continuing to fill in more chromatic semitones, remembering that you go up or down by 5 steps in 53-et for a chromatic semitone:
Cb, B, A##, ?, Dbb, C, B#, ?, Ebbb, Db, C#, B##, ?, Ebb, D
Continuing in the same way, and also doing the section from D to E in a similar way to the section C to D we get:
Cb, B, A##, Ebbb=G###, Dbb, C, B#, A###, Ebbb, Db, C#, B##, Fbbb, Eb, D, C##, B###, Fbb, Eb, D#, C###, Gbbb Fb, E, D##, Abbb=C###, Gbb, F, E#
You can’t even use half sharps and half flats to simplify it as C# is five steps above C. You can use x for double sharp, which may be useful if you are used to this symbol, to get
Cb, B, Ax, Ebbb=Gx#, Dbb, C, B#, Ax#, Ebbb, Db, C#, Bx, Fbbb, Eb, D, Cx, Bx#, Fbb, Eb, D#, Cx#, Gbbb Fb, E, Dx, Abbb=Cx#, Gbb, F, E#
If you want to test your understanding of this, try it again, start with . B . .. . C . . . . Db C# . . . .D . . . . Eb D# . . . . E , and then try filling in the dots with similar reasoning
(on a piece of paper or whatever, without looking back at the reasoning above, just based on the size of the chromatic semitone of 5 steps and the diatonic semitone at 4 steps and twelve fifths reduced to the octave as 1 step).
Anyway - as you can see, though you can notate everything using sharps and flats right up to 53-et, it gets very complicated.
UPSHOT, YOU NOW HAVE FOUR NEW NOTES BETWEEN B AND C, AND B# SHARPER THAN C, AND Cb FLATTER THAN B!
But anyway now between B and C you have four new notes, but the B# is now sharper than C and the Cb is now flatter than B:
Cb, B, A##, Ebbb=G###, Dbb, C. B#
or using x for double sharp:
Cb, B, Ax, Ebbb=Gx#, Dbb, C. B#
The enharmonic equivalences now are
Ebbb=G###, Abbb=C###, and numerous relations involving four flats or sharps such as B#### = Gbbb,
or using x for double sharp:
Ebbb=Gx#, Abbb=Cx#, and numerous relations involving four flats or sharps such as Bxx = Gbbb,
Musicians tend to use notations with fractions of a sharp or a flat at this point - things like half or a third or a sixth sharp or flat etc, and to have different systems of notation for each tuning system.
This is the result
ORTHOTONOPHONIUM - 53 OR 72 EQUAL
The Orthotonophonium dating back to 1914 by Arthur von Oettingen could play in 53 equal or 72 equal.
72 equal remains a popular tuning amongst some microtonalists. It’s not so good at approximating pure intervals exactly as 53 equal. But it does have twelve equal as part of it. Indeed you get it by dividing each of the twelve equal semitones into six exactly equal parts. With all the other tunings so far, then you can get to every note in the tuning using chains of fifths.
But 72 equal doesn’t work like that. It’s basically just six copies of twelve equal, shifted by a sixth of a semitone each (twelfth tones). And the “circle of fifths” takes you around between the notes of only one of those copies.
ENHARMONICS IN 72 EQUAL
So the enharmonics in 72 equal are the same as for twelve equal:
B# = C, E# = F, C# = Db etc
But now you have these offset tunings, which you can label, using some notation or other for the steps, e.g. / for one step sharp and \ for one step flat you get
B#/ = C/, E#/ = F/, C#/ = Db/ etc
B#// = C//, E#// = F//, C#// = Db// etc
B#/// = C///, E#/// = F///, C#/// = Db/// etc
and similarly
B#\ = C\, E#\ = F\, C#\ = Db\ etc
OTHER NOTATION SYSTEMS
This can be simplified by using notations such as Maneri / Sims
+1 = ^. +2=>, +3=]
-1 = v. -2=<, -3=[
I.e.
Maneri / Sims: ^>] to raise, v<[ to lower.
So then it’s
B#^ = C^, E#^ = F^, C#^ = Db^ etc
B#> = C>, E#> = F>, C#> = Db> etc
B#] = C], E#] = F], C#] = Db] etc
and similarly
B#v = Cv, E#v = Fv, C#v = Dbv etc
You could in principle play 72 equal using six pianists and six ordinary keyboards, each tuned to twelve equal and each piano sharper than the previous one by a sixth of a semitone.
This is an example, Wyschnegradsky - Arc en ciel
for six microtonally tuned twelve equal pianos
and
Georg Friedrich Haas - limited approximations for 6 micro-tonally tuned pianos and orchestra (2010)
Other notations you can use here are
HEWM +>^ to raise a note, and -<v to lower
Scala notation A144: /}| to raise and \{d to lower
Sagital 72 tone: /f^ and \tv (the t is visually similar to an upside down f)
Or we can just use multiple /s or \s
Then we can notate 53 equal with a similar system.
B\=Cb, B, B/ B// = C\\, C\, C, C/=B# , C//, C///, Db=C////, C#=D\\\\, D\\\, D\\, Eb=D\, D
where of course we could use e.g. Maneri Sims to replace / by ^, // by >, /// by ].
Or we can use the flats and sharps combined with / though that gets a bit confusing perhaps:
B\=Cb, B, B/ B// = C\\, C\, C, C/=B# , C//, C///, Db=C////, C#=D\\\\, D\\\, D\\, Eb=D\, D
Actually quite a lot of effort has gone into how best to notate such tunings, with one of the most thorough the Sagittal microtonal notation, with the aim of a unifying approach, for many different tuning systems. It’s based on notating everything relative to the pythogorean twelve tone system together with notation symbols for various commas. E.g. you get to E as 5/4 from the pythagorean E flattened by a syntonic comma, so if you have a symbol for the syntonic comma it turns out it’s easy to notate 5/4, 15/8, 8/5, etc. Similarly with other commas you can notate any of the small number ratios like 7/6, 11/8 etc. So it’s a very logical notation system.
They also use it for equal temperaments using notations for tempered commas (in cases where the comma doesn’t vanish).
It looks like this:
Anyway there are many more microtonally interesting equal temperament systems than this. Indeed probably almost any number of equal notes to the octave up to about 100 has it’s advocates for one reason than another. And there are people who go well beyond 100, even can get enthusiasts fretting guitars with more than 100 frets to an octave.
A few of these ETs have almost no decent approximations to a fifth, or a major third or a minor third, but that makes them even more intriguing and appealing to some composers.
But these tuning systems 19 equal, 31 equal, 53 equal and 72 equal are amongst the historically most important of the equal temperament systems. Well apart from twelve equal of course.
ASIDE ON TWELVE EQUAL
Twelve equal is interesting too. Some of you probably think it wasn’t developed until really late - like the early twentieth century. Few pianos were tuned to twelve equal for sure until then, Chopin even didn’t tune his piano to twelve equal, but instead used subtle late victorian tunings.
Some of you on the other hand may think that Bach’s “Well tempered Clavier”was written for twelve equal, as that’s a widespread “urban myth” in this topic area.
But no, actually it was written for well temperaments - tunings that are approximately equal but the different keys intentionally different in tuning. Keys likc C, G etc, related keys have purer sounding notes, often some of them pure fifths for instance while remoter keys have less pure pitch intervals.
But -back in Bach’s time and earlier they did have twelve equal as the tuning for the lute or guitar. It’s because the frets are much more straightforward. But they wouldn’t have thought of it as the “right tuning” and wouldn’t have liked the sound of it. Instead, they would probably try to bend the pitches to the desired tuning as they played. But the mistuning (to their ears) would be less noticeable perhaps on a plucked instrument.
HOW DID THEY TUNE TWELVE EQUAL BACK THEN?
How though did they manage to tune to twelve equal without logarithms to calculate the fret positions.
Well, in principle, they could have used twelfth roots as we would nowadays to make the twelve equal tuning. It was within their mathematical capabilities more or less. This is how they could have done it (but didn’t) - maths indented:
The ratio of the frequencies of two notes an exact semitone apart is sqrt(sqrt(cube root(2))) = 1.05946309436 so 1.05946309436^12 = 2. Square roots are easy to do geometrically, by constructing a square and drawing its http://diagonal.As for the cube, you can do that using the exact solutions to the problem of Duplicating the cube#History, which was solved back in the time of Plato. So you could also solve that one in a conceptually simple way by first duplicating the cube, which gives you the cube root of 2 by a complicated geometrical construction using for instance marked rulers that you slide into position against other lines you have drawn. Then you use another geometrical construction for the square root, and do that twice. You now have two lines with their lengths at a ratio of 1 : twelfth root of 2, and using that you could go on to construct your fretting pattern.
And the theoreticians did explore this idea. Zarlino suggested you could tune to twelve equal using an ancient Greek instrument design called the mesolabium, see page 55 of Tuning and temperament : a historical survey : Barbour, J. Murray (James Murray), which also describes other possible geometrical approaches.
However, in practice, one favoured way to do it was to use the ratio 18/17 for the twelve equal semitone - which is just a smidgen flat, but as it turns out is actually, or can be, a better way to tune a lute to twelve equal.
“..18:17 , which happens to make a very good prescription for placing the frets down the neck of a lute for equal temperament. It puts the octave shy of the string's midpoint by some 1/3 of 1% of the total length (comparable on a tenor lute to the width of the fret itself). This might be considered a defect from a certain theoretical point of view, but in reality 18:17 works better than twelfth root of 2 as the latter makes no allowance for the string's greater tension when it is pressed down to the fret. On a good instrument (that is, with a low action) the 18:17 rule renders the string just about long enough to compensate”
Chromatic systems (or non-systems) from Vicentino to Monteverdi
This idea or using 18:17 for the semitone for twelve equal goes back to Vincenzo Galilei (c. 1520 – 2 July 1591) , See Tuning and Temperament (you need to click on the Page xx link on that page in google books snippet view to see the quote). Incidentally, he was the father of the famous Galileo Galilei who made many of the first astronomical observations through a telescope, such as the craters on the Moon and the moons of Jupiter, and champion of the Copernican view that the Earth orbits the sun.
For more about the 18:17 approach see page 57 and following of Tuning and temperament. Kepler pointed out that it would not lead to the exact octave (theoretically) and there are various ways this could be fixed to give a better, though still not exact, solution, without need for twelfth roots etc.
SEE ALSO
I’ve just done lots more of those cycle of fifths notation screenshots from the next beta of Bounce here: Bounce Metronome Pro - Photos
Yes, just to add to the other answers, it doesn’t need to be very far around to the far side of the Moon, just far enough so that you no longer see Earth from it. And instead of cable, you can use ...
(more)Yes, just to add to the other answers, it doesn’t need to be very far around to the far side of the Moon, just far enough so that you no longer see Earth from it. And instead of cable, you can use laser transmission.
So for instance if there was a research station at one of the “peaks of eternal light” near the poles, they could build a radio telescope just a bit over the horizon and then have a laser transmitter on a mast on top of a nearby mountain to communicate with it, and then directly to Earth. Or you can use orbital satellites. For instance there’s this idea to launch lots of cubesats to help with communications with surface missions on the Moon.
Resurrected radio dish could guide GPS on the moon
See also my Case For Moon First
Sam carries his cooking pots with him all the way through the three books, wherever he goes.
Well here is an example from the UK, analysis from 2012, found that there were
Well here is an example from the UK, analysis from 2012, found that there were
From: http://www.venngeist.org/opsa1_m...
Then in the US:
https://astrosociety.org/edu/res...
The total number of individual members of the International Astronomical Union is 10,190 - gives a rough idea of the number of serious professional astronomers though many astronomers are not in the IAU. As you’ll see from the list, they come from many different countries. International Astronomical Union | IAU
Must be hundreds of thousands to millions of amateur astronomers world wide from the US and UK figures.
Yes, none at all. You could even do a close flyby of the Sun and feel nothing, so long as you can protect yourself from the solar radiation.
There are tidal effects, but those would be too small to ...
(more)Yes, none at all. You could even do a close flyby of the Sun and feel nothing, so long as you can protect yourself from the solar radiation.
There are tidal effects, but those would be too small to notice on a small spacecraft. If it was a big object, kilometers across, like a Stanford Torus, say, then it would stress it to get too close because of the tidal effects. Comets break up when they get too close to Jupiter for this reason.
This is Comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 which they think broke up as a result of a close flyby of Jupiter within 40,000 km of its cloud tops in 1992 Jupiter orbiting comet (though it was only discovered in 1993 so that’s by tracing its orbit back), orbited it for several years, and then finally crashed into it in 1994.
This shows the effects of the crash into Jupiter.
Juno came within 5,000 kilometers of the cloud tops so would have experienced much more by way of tidal forces than this, but then it is also far smaller - and would surely be engineered to withstand whatever the tidal stresses were which I wouldn’t have thought would be much on such a small spacecraft. NASA's Juno Spacecraft Breaks Solar Power Distance Record
No planet is anything like bright enough for this. Venus gets quite bright but only when the sun is below the horizon, it can’t compete with our sun. It’s shining by reflected light after all and i...
(more)No planet is anything like bright enough for this. Venus gets quite bright but only when the sun is below the horizon, it can’t compete with our sun. It’s shining by reflected light after all and is at the far side of the sun when it’s at its brightest.
You can sometimes see the brightest planets when close to the sun by blocking out the sun, but they are almost invisible, pretty much the same brightness as the sky itself, you are looking for a tiny white dot against the blue sky, very hard to spot and I don’t think you’d see it at all in most photographs.
Comets can sometimes become daytime objects, bright enough to be visible in the daytime sky. But there isn’t any daytime comet in our skies right now. They are very big news if that happens. The Moon often is visible in the daytime sky but this looks too bright to be the Moon (hard to judge its size because of the lens flare around the sun).
Also - I can guarantee that if there was a real bright object like that near the sun, which anyone can see world wide, it would be an absolutely top story in astronomy. We’d all know about it. It would have to be visible world wide. And it would have to be next to the sun for everyone. Some would see it at sunset, some at sunrise, some with the sun high in the sky - we’d all see it at once if it was a celestial object so long as you have a clear sky.
So, it has to be something local. You might think of things like light reflecting off a shiny child’s balloon for instance.
But nearly always these are just either lens flares or offset lens reflections.
Lens flares are easy to spot because if you move the camera just slightly, they tend to move all over the place. Also if you put your finger in front of the sun, the sun disappears and all the flare images of it do also.
But offset lens reflections are more tricky. You get them by taking photographs through a window, or if you have a filter out of alignment on your camera. They produce a copy of the sun’s image but it may seem much smaller because the main image is made brighter by flare.
So, pretty sure that is what it is. As Jonathan Devor says in his answer Jonathan Devor's answer to What is this bright object next to the sun?,
The reflection is bright, and so just like the sun, the reflection also causes a “ghost image” offset reflection in the camera.
Notice that the reflection also has a copy at the same angle to it as the main sun.
That shows it is something local and not celestial. If it was celestial, then since it is higher than the sun in the sky, its reflection would be below the sun’s reflection in the sea. The reflection would have to be as much below the horizon as the sun is above. That might be a bit confusing as you have hills there, so you need to imagine where the real horizon is. I’ve added in a horizon line, to help.
Here is a very striking example of an offset lens reflection - a popular video on youtube:
And here is a detailed explanation of how these happen on metabunk, explaining that video:
Explained: Two "Suns" Sanibel Causeway, Florida [Offset Lens Reflection]
Incidentally it’s actually an offset double reflection. The light comes into the glass from the sun on the far side, hits the near side of the glass, bounces back through “internal reflection, hits the far side then comes back to your eye or your camera but now it’s offset because of the angled glass and those two reflections.
This is one of the example images, made using an offset lens reflection artificially:
Note that the main image of the sun is irregular and fuzzy because the sun is so bright it overwhelms the camera. While the offset reflection is much less bright so can be photographed as a perfect circle. It’s round because the sun is round. And the offset lens reflection can even seem to be behind leaves as in this example - that’s because the original is behind leaves as well which you can’t see because it is so bright. See Explained: Two "Suns" Sanibel Causeway, Florida [Offset Lens Reflection] for the details
This is another example of an artificially made offset lens reflection using glass attached at an angle in front of the camera
See also my Simple Ways To See Nibiru Is Totally Nuts - And Limits On Planets Hiding In Our Solar System
Please also take a look at my online petition at The world’s platform for change: Let's End Dramatized Reporting of "Doomsday" Stories - The Vulnerable Get Suicidal
It’s neither. It’s evidence, an early pre-discovery stage of science. When you get evidence you then have to follow up with more observations, in the hope of finding something, but not all evidence...
(more)It’s neither. It’s evidence, an early pre-discovery stage of science. When you get evidence you then have to follow up with more observations, in the hope of finding something, but not all evidence leads to discovery. You get many false leads in science, just through confusing and inevitable coincidences.
They said there’s 1 chance in 15,000 of the orbits of the other minor planets getting into their current configuration by chance. That might seem like a sure thing - in ordinary life if someone said they thought there were 99.9933…% sure of something, you’d say it is surely true. But in science you need much higher levels of confidence than that to claim a discovery.
The reason is that there are thousands of astronomers out there, and every year they each trawl through vast amounts of data. So, from time to time they are bound to turn up a 1 in 15,000 chance as just a coincidence. Indeed you’d expect that to happen maybe several times a year even. And the most striking ones get published.
So, it’s not at all a proof. And if it is real, not just a coincidence, the planet idea is only “an explanation” - there may be many. For instance a more recent idea is that it could be due to several smaller planets in different orbits not just one large planet.
It’s “3.8 sigma”. In particle physics,where they collect vast amounts of data, they will get three sigma results all the time and aim for five sigma for discovery announcements. 5 sigma is also the threshold for announcing a discovery or observation in “Physics Review Letters”, while three sigma would be “evidence”. See Does 5-sigma = discovery?
“Others, like planetary scientist Dave Jewitt, who discovered the Kuiper belt, are more cautious. The 0.007% chance that the clustering of the six objects is coincidental gives the planet claim a statistical significance of 3.8 sigma—beyond the 3-sigma threshold typically required to be taken seriously, but short of the 5 sigma that is sometimes used in fields like particle physics. That worries Jewitt, who has seen plenty of 3-sigma results disappear before. By reducing the dozen objects examined by Sheppard and Trujillo to six for their analysis, Batygin and Brown weakened their claim, he says. “I worry that the finding of a single new object that is not in the group would destroy the whole edifice,” says Jewitt, who is at UC Los Angeles. “It’s a game of sticks with only six sticks.””
from: Astronomers say a Neptune-sized planet lurks beyond Pluto
The next stage is to search for it using the very sensitive Subaru telescope in Hawaii
The Subaru telescope, on Mount Kea in Hawaii, with a wide field of view and sensitive to faint sources, probably has best chance of spotting this new Planet X.
Any of the very large telescopes could spot it but most are in the Southern hemisphere. Subaru could spot it throughout most of its orbit unless it is very distant or at the lowest end of the size range. They would need fifty nights of observation to do the search - which may not seem a lot but fifty complete nights on a big telescope competing with all the other researchers is a huge amount. And you can’t just buy the time but have to put a research proposal and get it accepted.
They are hunting for it though, and as a part of other searches, also searching for other possible objects out there - if they found an object that is not perturbed in the way it should be, that could disprove this planet X as well. Or they could get more evidence for it.
To find out more:
If they get more evidence about where to look, they could use longer exposures. and so find it even if it is only the size of Earth and at the furthest point in its orbit.
For more about Planet X, see my
I think perhaps you may be talking about young Buddhist children who wear the robes of a monk or nun? That’s only a few of them. Well they haven’t actually taken the vows of a monk or nun. It doesn...
(more)I think perhaps you may be talking about young Buddhist children who wear the robes of a monk or nun? That’s only a few of them. Well they haven’t actually taken the vows of a monk or nun. It doesn’t make sense to take a celibacy vow as a child.
They just wear the robes. I suppose it shows a kind of intention to take the vows later as they grow up but as you say, they can’t possibly truly understand the implications so it’s not a commitment of any sort.
Two initiate monks, Sakya Lamdre, Tharlam Monastery of Tibetan Buddhism, Boudha, Kathmandu, Nepal
As a famous example, the sixth Dalai Lama never took his novice vows, when the time came when he reached adulthood, and went on to write famous love poems.
Also, it is very easy to stop being a monk or a nun. You just need to say to anyone capable of understanding what you say “I hand back my robes” and that’s it done. Doesn’t have to be your preceptor. Doesn’t even have to be a Buddhist. Anyone who can understand what you say. And doesn’t matter if you have taken the novice vows or the full vows or how long you’ve been a monk or a nun for. You can still do this at any time.
So, even if the child takes their novice vows when they reach adulthood, and later on takes the full vows, if they decide not to continue as a monk or nun, they can do that at any point. They don’t need to ask anyone for permission or anything like that.
Actually, I think it is best if we don’t, at least not as we are now. It would be a risk for ourselves as well as for all the other intelligent species there are in the universe. We have to change ...
(more)Actually, I think it is best if we don’t, at least not as we are now. It would be a risk for ourselves as well as for all the other intelligent species there are in the universe. We have to change in some way before there is a decent chance of this having a “good outcome”. I think our priority should be firmly to protect and preserve Earth, Carl Sagan expressed a similar sentiment in Pale Blue Dot
"The Earth is the only world known, so far, to harbor life. There is nowhere else, at least in the near future, to which our species could migrate. Visit, yes. Settle, not yet. Like it or not, for the moment, the Earth is where we make our stand."
IS IT PRACTIALLY POSSIBLE
Practically, I think we could do it. There are many habitable planets out there. These are just the best ones we know of.
THIS IS NOT STAR TREK THOUGH
There’s a tendency to think it would be like Star Trek. But that’s a very idealized picture and even then you have the likes of the Borg in their universe. What happens a million years into their future? What happens to the various large scale conflicts that have already happened just a few thousand years into that new era of space faring civilizations? Even the rather idealist Star Trek universe has many seeds for potentially endless chaos a few thousand or million years down the road.
But Star Trek is just the products of talented script writers’ imagination, not future casting. Makes lots of implausible assumptions. For instance that ETs throughout our galaxy have similar exobiology and often even compatible DNA, can all eat each other’s food nearly always, and that they are all basically humanoid, and usually looking more like each other even than humans look like gorillas, never mind elephants or parrots or octopuses. And all arose independently around multiple star systems at the exact same moment of time to within a few thousand years. They have an “in house” explanation based on the ancient humanoids who billions of years ago seeded worlds throughout the galaxy and who were so advanced they could arrange for them all to evolve humanoids at the exact same moment more or less, billions of years into the future. And borders between stars light years apart that are measured and patrolled exactly to the kilometer. It’s fun but requires a lot of suspension of disbelief if you are scientifically minded.
WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IN OUR REAL UNIVERSE?
Instead, imagine a galaxy filled with peaceful colonists, yes, maybe some pirates etc as in Star Trek - all originating from Earth (vastly improbable that they arise simultanously on multiple worlds like Star Trek at the same time).
Then amongst them, here and there, you have the likes of ISIS, North Korea, Hitler, whatever present or past figures you imagine as the worst we could have - they would all be in space in the colonies, people like that. But now give them the technology we would have several centuries into the future. They have the ability to make self replicating machines probably, and cyborgs, and uplifted animals of all sorts made intelligent by DNA manipulation.
Now let them expand through the galaxy - so that they are beyond reach. Assuming we don’t get warp drive, which is very sci. fi. at present - then if some of our descendants are a thousand light years away, which is only a hundredth of the diameter of our galaxy, we wouldn’t even know what they have done more recently than a thousand years ago.
EXPANSION OF A SOCIALLY PRIMITIVE, TECHNOLOGICALLY ADVANCED CIVILIZATION THROUGHOUT A GALAXY
We are technologically advanced, yes, at least compared with previous generations here on Earth,but that example shows that socially we have a lot of catching up to do to be ready to use this technology on a galaxy spanning scale. I can’t see any way that such a galaxy could be anything but total chaos. This expansion of technological civilization into a galaxy would also quickly go exponential, and favour the most aggreessive and most rapidly reproducing species.
The most aggressive colonists wouldn’t need to set up stable civilizations even, as they would probably have the ability to live in the Oort clouds, with fusion power. In that future, maybe just a few centuries ahead, small groups, even just family groupings or a few friends on a whim, could just hop from one comet to another throughout the galaxy as those clouds of comets mingle and probably spread most of the way to the nearest stars, probably all the way to nearby Oort clouds around other stars.
FILL GALAXY AND THEN UNIVERSE
They could then fill our galaxy in the not so distant future. A long time perhaps in human lifetimes, but compared to geological time, just a blink of time. Probably in less than a million years. Crossing over to other galaxies is quite a challenge - but the space between galaxies is not devoid of material. There are stars in between and gas clouds also, and with the technology we’d have by then we’d probably be able to move planets with fusion suns, at close to the speed of light, a bit like the Puppeteers in the Larry Niven novels. There are parts of the universe disappearing beyond the speed of light horizon under its expansion, so without warp drive it would be limited, but we could spread to millions of light years, eventually billions of light years in every direction. If we set it off here, without foresight and planning, that’s surely the inevitable outcome.
So - in principle, yes we could fill the galaxy and much of the universe also, at least of the part closest to us.
But, if we did it as we are now we wouldn’t turn into a galaxy and universe spanning civilization.
We’d become a galaxy and universe spanning chaos of beserker robots and creatures just running amok. Not our selves necessarily.
NIGHTMARE FUTURE
I think a future like that would be the worst nightmare not just for us but for any beings in this galaxy and eventually universe. If someone somewhere establishes a peaceful spot in the galaxy - they would never know when some horde of beings with strange ideas would suddenly appear having developed for a thousand years over a thousand light years away - and then arrive at close to the speed of light using unfamiliar technology. They would be our distant cousins, or the creations of our cousins, but that wouldn’t help. And once started, how can this ever stop?
Even if people learn to co-operate in one part of the universe - that’s only going to work in a small region, perhaps a few tens of light years in diameter. Beyond that, the chaos would just start up again or rather just continue without check.
Also you just can’t keep expanding exponentially. At some point you have to stop. So why not stop at a point where you have some reasonable control and reasonable prospects for your civilization for the future?
SO NO SENSIBLE ET WOULD BE A GALACTIC IMPERIALIST
For these reasons I think that no sensible ET would set out to colonize a galaxy. Not in an emperialist conquering way at least. If they do explore the entire galaxy it will be in some way that involves restraint and has minimal impact on the galaxy, chances are.
There’s plenty of space. We could have countless trillions of us in a single star system. There’s enough material in just the asteroid belt of our solar system for a thousand times the land area of Earth - so that is already a population of trillions living in comfort if we develop that technology.
SETTING UP NEW COLONIES BEYOND THE HORIZON OF COMMUNICATION WITHOUT FORESIGHT - LIKE A NUCLEAR BOMB IN YOUR HOME CITY
So, I expect our galaxy to quite possibly have trillions of colonists from various ETIs, but they would keep them localized in a small region. Setting up new colonies “beyond the horizon” of your civilization without foresight about the possible effects would be seen like letting off a nuclear bomb in the middle of your home city. Something that no sane person, or being, would do.
I think they, and we also, should use robots instead. That is something we can do safely, carefully designed robots. We don’t need to give them the ability to evolve at all. Perhaps replicating only. And limit the number of replications and there are many other things we could do to keep them safe.
WE CAN BE ONE OF THE WISE ETS
I think, there is evidence that we may be wiser than the most reckless ETs possible, which might destroy themselves in space wars pretty much as soon as they begin on spaceflight. Carl Sagan refers to this as "the intrinsic instability of societies devoted to an aggressive galactic imperialism".
Though we have stumbled a lot, we have made many good decisions, such as dealing with the problems of DDT and CFCs, human rights (a lot of progress though much still to do), preventing chemical and biological warfare (even in the almost all out conflicts of WWII neither side used the chemical weapons of WWI, I know there have been exceptions but most wars don’t use them).
We've developed nuclear weapons, and yet, for decades we haven't used them. Indeed Carl Sagan suggests that maybe nuclear weapons are the deciding factor here. After talking about our own efforts to deal with nuclear bombs he then goes on:
"If every civilization that invents weapons of mass destruction must deal with comparable problems, then we have an additional principleof universal applicability. Weapons of mass destruction force upon every emerging society a behavioural discontinuity: if they are not aggressive they probably would not have developed such weapons; if they do not quickly learn how to control that aggression they rapidly self destruct. Those civilizations devoted to territoriality and aggrssion and violent settlement of disputes do not long survive after the development of apocalyptic weapons. Long before they are able to make any significant colonization of the Milky Way, they are gone from the galactic stage. Civilizations that do not self-destruct are pre-adapted to live with other groups in mutual respect."
He goes on to say that because we have only just reached this stage then this future scenario of mutual respect may seem unlikely because of our short term perspective, and that the required changes may take a thousand years or more for us to reach maturity as a species. From Carl Sagan's "The Solipsit approach to Extraterrestrial Intelligence", 1983 .
We’ve prevented starvation with the often forgotten Green Revolution between the 1930s and the 1960s, stopped nearly all whale hunting, lots of work to preserve species and environments etc.
If you compare our present world with what it could have been without all those initiatives - I think it gives room for optimism for the future too. And I think we’ve made an excellent start on peaceful use of space with the Outer Space Treaty.
Although it’s frustrating that we don’t have warp drives or even the Star Trek “Impulse drive”, and easy ways to build habitats in space, I actually think it helps, that space is so hostile. Hopefully by the time we figure out how to live sustainably in space habitats, we also have figured out how to do it peacefully, or reasonably so. With competition of course, but more like the Olympic Games than WWIII.
Hopefully we can become more forward looking as we continue to colonize space. Perhaps the increased resources from space can help us to become more peaceful if we can handle it right.
If so we might well eventually have a chance to explore even our entire galaxy peacefully, and without harmful consequences to ourselves and other intelligent species that may exist in our galaxy. And if we meet ETs then they also I think would be ones that have figured out how to explore the galaxy in a similarly peaceful way.
THIS IS A GREAT FILTER IN THE FUTURE - ANY EXPANSIONIST ET MUST ALSO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT - OR ELSE - WE ARE FIRST
I’m pretty sure there can’t be any aggressive exponentially expanding ET out there (such as we could become potentially) except by some amazing coincidence. That’s because unless they started on their expansion less than a million years ago, a tiny slice of the age of the galaxy, they would have occupied Earth and our solar system already, long before we evolved indeed, probably.
Any ET that managed to expand to a few star systems or to the Oort clouds, also I think can never stop expanding, short of warp drives. That's because if there are any of their species left anywhere in the galaxy that are expansionist, they will start up again, and take over from all the others that give up. How can that ever stop? Even if they started billions of years ago, they would still be at it, I think, even if most of them retreat into Dyson spheres or whatever it is they do, the few who don't would continue to expand through the galaxy.
So any "great filters" ahead of us have to operate before any ETs out there start on any major push of galactic imperialism.
I think the most likely reason is either
WILL WE BE A WEED OR A FLOWER IN THE GALAXY
The anthropologist Mary Dora Russell says:
'Anthropologists used to say that Homo sapiens was a unique and special species because we were the only ones who used tools, or who were self-aware, or had language, or passed culture to our offspring… Then we started finding out that chimps and dolphins and crows and African grey parrots and snow monkeys were making a mockery of our pretensions to uniqueness, so we’ve kind of shut up about all that in recent years.
If you want a nice reductive definition of our species, I could defend this: “Human beings are bipedal tailless primates who tell stories.”
That’s probably just as stupid as earlier definitions, but it’s catchier than my other version, which is
“Human beings are a dangerous, invasive weed species that has invented central heating, air conditioning, and food that can be stored for up to ten years, so not even a direct hit by an asteroid would likely make us extinct.”'
When nothing else matters, by Mary Dora Russell
I think that’s rather how I see the future of us in the galaxy if we just expand into it without foresight. But far worse than a weed on Earth. We’ve unnaturally made ourselves almost impossible to go extinct already by our technology and if we expand through the universe without evolving social breakthroughs of some sort, to catch up with our technology breakthroughs, I think we’ll become the ineradicable weed of the galaxy. But harmful to ourselves as much as to everyone else, and able to create even more dangerous replicators through our technology.
It's not just us. Our galaxy may well contain many non technological species, for instance intelligent fish-like or octopus-like creatures, living in the oceans of icy moons, or ocean planets, where they have no chance to develop control of fire. Or creatures that are just not very strong, and don't have good "hands" like us for manipulation, like parrots or crows. Even an elephant would have a lot of trouble building a fire and smelting metal. Ancient civilizations, perhaps advanced in mathematics, art, poetry, music, perhaps socially very advanced, yet without technology they would be especially vulnerable to a new technological species spreading out of control like an ineradicable weed through the galaxy. Out of all the intelligent creatures on Earth, I think only humans also had a decent chance of developing technology based on fire, even with intelligence. So if that's a good basis for generalizing, then the non technological civilizations universe wide may well outnumber the technological ones many to one. So, even a billions of years old civilization could still be highly vulnerable to a few centuries old civilization of technological ETs such as ourselves, could be.
I think any sensible ET will look at that possible future for themselves and the galaxy, and find a way to become a flower of the galaxy instead of a weed that will eventually choke all the species in the galaxy, including themselves. If they can’t see a way to a future like that, then if they have any sense, they just stay at home until they can. And if they haven’t the sense to do that, I think, perhaps, that they either make themselves extinct, or they keep destroying their own spaceflight capabilities, and get nowhere, until they develop some sense.
Let’s be one of the civilizations in our galaxy and universe that flowers like a beautiful flower.
See also the section in my Case For Moon First: Further into the future, what about habitable planets around other stars?
This answer is partly based on extracts from my book.
See also: Robert Walker's answer to Will humans become extinct before we can colonize other planets?
They aren’t, but there isn’t as much radiation where the ISS is as there was on the Moon.
The Apollo astronauts were in significant danger from solar storms. There actually was a solar storm during ...
(more)They aren’t, but there isn’t as much radiation where the ISS is as there was on the Moon.
The Apollo astronauts were in significant danger from solar storms. There actually was a solar storm during the Apollo missions, in August 1972, but luckily there were no astronauts on the Moon at the time. It was after the Apollo 16 mission ended in April and before Apollo 17, the last mission to the Moon in December. See Sickening Solar Flares
If it had happened during an EVA of the Apollo astronauts they would have been exposed to an estimated 400 REM. There 300 REM is the dose where many of those exposed die. So they were at serious risk there. Though, they would have been rushed straight into radiation treatment when they got back to Earth and maybe they could have survived.
But if they had been on the Moon with such a giant sun spot even without knowing if it would send a solar storm to Earth, maybe they would have just cancelled the EVA and stayed in or close to the lunar module. In that case they could have used it as a storm shelter which would have reduced their exposure to a very survivable. 35 rem
These are things that we will have to take account of if we send astronauts back to the Moon. It’s the same on or in orbit around Mars also, unless you are in a cave of course. And in Mars orbit well Phobos’s crater Stickney gives a fair bit of protection from solar storms, mainly because a base there has the sun either hidden behind Mars or below the crater rim for all except a few hours of each Deimos orbit - it is tidally locked with Stickney facing towards Mars..
The Venus upper atmosphere is even safer, protected by the equivalent of the Earth’s atmosphere, or 10 meters thickness of water equivalent above the astronauts.
So the safest places in the solar system for EVAs for solar storms are:
In low Earth orbit, you get a fair bit of protection from the Earth’s magnetic field, especially for the deadly solar storms. Though you’d schedule your EVA to minimize your exposure to radiation of course :).
Inside caves like this one on Marius hills on the Moon:
In Stickney crater on Mars’ innermost moon Phbos, in the regions most sheltered from the sun.
Faces Mars permanently and protected from much of the effects ofsolar storms and cosmic radiation. See To Explore Mars With Likes Of Occulus Rift & Virtuix Omni - From Mars Capture Orbit, Phobos Or Deimos
Venus clouds, almost complete protection from solar storms because of the atmosphere above you, as on Earth, equivalent to ten meters thickness of water in mass.
Will We Build Colonies That Float Over Venus Like Buckminster Fuller's "Cloud Nine"?
There isn’t any practical way to shield spacesuits from solar storms.
You can shield rovers though to some extent and provide storm shelters inside for astronauts to retreat to. And can shield habitats much more thoroughly.
And just not do EVAs when there seems likely to be an increased risk of solar storms. But another possible future solution is that the astronauts may spend much of their time indoors controlling robotic avatars on the surface via telepresence. It’s surely the safest way to explore, especially if we need to spend years on end doing EVAs,which you never know, we might in the future. And as our telerobots get more capable I think we will get a lot more of that. It might reach the point where EVAs are mostly recreational.
Thanks yes here is my "Imaginary Bullshit Planet" Nibiru - Lens Flares, Sun Mirages, Hoaxes & Just Plain Silly
Or
I also did another one, Simple Ways To See Nibiru Is Totall...
(more)Thanks yes here is my "Imaginary Bullshit Planet" Nibiru - Lens Flares, Sun Mirages, Hoaxes & Just Plain Silly
Or
I also did another one, Simple Ways To See Nibiru Is Totally Nuts - And Limits On Planets Hiding In Our Solar System
which is not yet available as a kindle book.
You may have seen some of the videos like this one:
If so, it’s explained here: Explained: Two "Suns" Sanibel Causeway, Florida [Offset Lens Reflection]
It’s an offset lens reflection - he showed that it must be by stabilizing her video and showing that the extra “sun” moves about a little relative to the clouds.
You can get those by videoing through glass at an angle, or by using a misthreaded lens filter and may not know how it happened, or you can do it deliberately as a hoax.
BTW don’t stare at the sun, especially at times other than the moment of sunrise / sunset, as you can damage your eyes permanently if you are unlucky.
More about all this in my Simple Ways To See Nibiru Is Totally Nuts - And Limits On Planets Hiding In Our Solar System
Well, this one is fake just because of the title given to it. Articles on asteroid impacts share this as an example of an asteroid that could hit Earth. It’s most often zoomed in like this:
See thes...
(more)Well, this one is fake just because of the title given to it. Articles on asteroid impacts share this as an example of an asteroid that could hit Earth. It’s most often zoomed in like this:
See these search results Google image search - journalists and even science magazines use this image to report any asteroid story of any size. Even reports of a flyby or impact by an asteroid a few tens of meters across.
It’s a zoom in of this larger image by Don Davis (artist) and it is a scientifically accurate artist’s impression except for one very important detail:
which is also frequently used in the articles: Google image search
It’s actually an artist’s impression of a Planetoid crashing into primordial Earth by Don Davis. The last impact on Earth of a planetoid this big was getting on for four billion years ago when the solar system was still settling down after its formation.
The largest asteroids to hit Earth since then are only of the order of 10 km across or so. That’s for the last more than three billion years, throughout the inner solar system, including our Moon, all the way from Mercury out to Mars and its moons, all the craters from asteroids significantly larger than 10 km date to well over three billion years ago.
Apparently Jupiter protects us from the very largest asteroids and planetoids like this one.
To put it in perspective, if you had an image of the Earth with 1600 pixels resolution for its diameter, which is a common resolution for an HD computer screen, then a ten kilometer diameter asteroid would be a little over 1 pixel in diameter.
You can understand why they don't use realistic asteroid sizes in the images. You wouldn't be able to see the impactor at all!
This is a more accurate image, used in many news stories for a typical medium sized asteroid - where they show it glowing but don't show the impactor, and with a close up zoom in on the Earth.
That's the image that was widely used for reporting 2013 TV135 the roughly 450 meters diameter asteroid that we now know will be over three quarters of the distance to the sun away from Earth on that date.
For a larger, 10 km asteroid, this is an accurate artist's impression, from NASA.
About 70 impactors this large or larger have hit Earth since 3.8 billion years ago.
Also check out the image by Don Davis, of Southwest Research Institute from Ancient Asteroids Kept Pelting Earth in a "Late-Late" Heavy Bombardment.
After a big impact like this, not much would survive in the near neighbourhood of the strike, out to a range of order of hundreds of kilometers. But far away, many would survive the immediate impact. While after an impact by a planetoid, then the oceans would boil and the Earth’s surface would go molten and quite possibly it might even be sterlized of all life. There’s quite a difference.
I think it’s one of the reasons many think we would go extinct after an asteroid impact, and even that it might destroy all life on Earth. But many creatures did survive the Chicxulub impact, including birds, turtles, crocodiles and alligators, dawn sequoia, many sea creatures, and mammals of course. We surely would also with our technology able to survive anywhere from the Arctic to the Kalahari with the minimum of tools, made of wood, bone and stone.
These impacts are also very rare, only one chance in a million to have one like this in this next century - and reduced to probably more like 1 in 100 million now that we have found all the 10 km and larger asteroids that do close flybys of Earth and proven that none of them will impact Earth in the next century. That only leaves the much rarer long period comets, and we’d most likely have a year or so of warning for those.
See also my Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them (free online version)
Also available on kindle as Giant Asteroid Is Headed Your Way? : How We Can Detect and Deflect Them (Amazon)
I think this is extraordinarily unlikely, indeed for all practical purposes, impossible. Humans without tools would go extinct easily. How many great apes do you find in the Arctic or the Kalahari ...
(more)I think this is extraordinarily unlikely, indeed for all practical purposes, impossible. Humans without tools would go extinct easily. How many great apes do you find in the Arctic or the Kalahari desert? But with only stone age technology, we could survive almost anywhere. We are omnivores too, able to survive to adulthood on almost any diet. With some diets we might not live so long, but it’s hard to think of any situation where humans couldn’t grow to maturity somewhere on the Earth.
There’s no plausible disaster that could make Earth so uninhabitable that humans can’t survive by eating roots, shellfish, fruit, or one way or another. The usual culprit here is a giant asteroid impact. But turtles, dawn sequoia, bird, small mammals, fish, crocodiles all survived the Chixculub impact. We surely would also.
Also, that’s the worst that we can get. In the early solar system Earth was hit by many 100 km and larger asteroids but this stopped more than three billion years ago as the solar system settled down,as we can see from the cratering record of the inner solar system. Jupiter apparently protects us from the very largest asteroids.
And what’s more, we have the capability to detect the asteroid long in advance and deflect it. Far better to spend a few hundred million dollars, or even a few billion dollars (to do it really quickly) on capable space telescopes to speed up our searches for damaging asteroids than to spend probably trillions on trying to colonize another planet. See Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
As another example, a gamma ray burst is very rare, exceedingly unlikely to happen this century. But it also wouldn’t make us extinct. Only the side of Earth facing towards the burst would experience the immediate effects and even on that side you’d escape the effects if deep underground in a mine, or in a submarine. And afterwards the destruction of the ozone layer is certainly something humans with our technology could survive. Many other species also but certainly humans. We may have been through them several times in the past and if so obviously many species survived.
Climate change also wouldn’t make us extinct. It’s potentially devastating, yes, if we don’t stop it. But the worst case scenario is flooding of many low lying places like Bangladesh, losing many islands in the Pacific, changes in weather patterns so that many species can no longer survive where they lived before, and very slightly acidic oceans so there’s no coral any more (only affects things that are very sensitive to small amounts of acid), things like that.
I totally agree we shouldn’t let that happen. It could be disastrous for us. But disastrous though they are, those are not human extinction events. I think the pessimistic predictions are based around treating humans as if we were a typical species on Earth when we are one of the most adaptable especially with technology, and because we are already omnivores able to survive almost in any land habitat and also floating on lakes and fishing in the sea.
For other suggested disasters, see my Could Anything Make Humans Extinct In The Near Future?
And whether we like it or not, the Earth is still by far the most habitable place in our solar system. Even after the worst of natural disasters, it will remain so. As for human created disasters, these also can’t make Earth as hostile to humans as Mars, even our best attempt at a terraformed Mars if that is possible at all (even the optimists agree it would take thousands of years, outside of science fiction of course).
And if it is our technology that’s the problem, the problems are as likely to start on Mars as anywhere, if we attempt a colony there - the most high technology attempt at a colony ever made. For instance they would be amongst the most likely to try to make replicating machines or synthetic life, they might return extraterrestrial life from Mars to Earth, and with accelerated colonization with millions in space there’s also the possibility of wars between space colonies and Earth.
If you think Mars would be protected by a kind of six month quarantine because it takes so long to get there, remember that we have ideas for propulsion methods that could get us there in weeks possibly even days. Also we could set up a permanently quarantined colony on Earth easily enough for far less cost than a Mars colony.
And - I don't actually think we will lose all our technology on Earth, I think looking at past history that even when civilizations end, the technology doesn't vanish completely. Since the iron age, the world never lost the ability to smelt iron even though many small tribes can't do it. It never lost writing after it was invented. It never lost simple maths ideas like how to count, addition etc.
As it is now, I think we will never lose the place notation, fractions (quite a late development in maths), zero, and very very unlikely to lose algebra or calculus. Only a certain percentage can differentiate or integrate, but you don't need everyone to be able to do it to have a few teachers to pass it on to the next generation.
In medicine, we won't forget anesthetic, the microbe theory of diseases, the need for surgeons to wash their hands before surgery and nurses to keep clean, or vaccination,
I don't think we'll lose the ability to build airplanes either. Or bicycles. Both are easy to do with a small amount of technology and mainly based on knowing it is possible and if we have engineering - even if we forgot most of it, we can reinvent it quickly, or learn it from books, so long as a few engineering books survive from our era.
I think there might be a place for a “backup” in space, but it's Earth that you'd want to restore with any backup of seeds, technology, and knowledge, making the Moon, or Earth itself, the ideal places to keep these repositories. And if we do send humans to Mars, why not study it telerobotically from its moons or from orbit first? Why risk a human crash in the one place in the inner solar system most vulnerable to Earth microbes?
The Moon is so close that it's going to be easy to scout out with robots controlled in near to real time from Earth. Later on, we can use them again to get our lunar villageready, with the habitats, utilities and landing pad all in place, before our astronauts arrive. On Mars a new idea that goes wrong could quickly lead to death of the entire crew. On the Moon, we can get help in days, or in the worst case, the crew can bail out back to Earth in their "lifeboats", and then start again, with no need to wait for two years for the next opportunity. And surprisingly perhaps, the Moon has many advantages over Mars as a place to live too.
See also: my comment about what might happen in the far future
This answer uses extracts from my Case For Moon First book (which is available to read online in its entirety for free and also available for purchase from Kindle). It goes into these issues in a lot more detail as well.
This answer uses material particularly from the Preface and the sections:
See also Robert Walker's answer to Are humans destined to colonize the universe?
No, the reason is because of the mascoms - the concentrations of mass on the Moon.
As satellites orbit the Moon their orbits are tugged one way and then the other by the Mascons, and these keep cha...
(more)No, the reason is because of the mascoms - the concentrations of mass on the Moon.
As satellites orbit the Moon their orbits are tugged one way and then the other by the Mascons, and these keep changing the shape of the orbits. This doesn’t make them spiral down - it's not a tidal effect. Instead, it varies their ellipticity, sometimes more, and sometimes less elliptical. Eventually, in most orbits around the Moon the orbits become so elliptical they intersect the surface of the Moon and the moonlet crashes.
"FROZEN ORBITS" OF THE MOON
This was first discovered in April 24, 1972. The Apollo 16 astronauts tried to put a small satellite called PFS-2 into lunar orbit to orbit every 2 hours. An earlier satellite PFS-1 was released by Apollo 15 and had been orbiting the Moon just fine for eight months. And they were in similar orbits originally, ranging from 55 to 76 miles above the surface.
But - to their surprise, PFS-2 rapidly changed the shape of its orbit. Within two and a half weeks, it was swooping down to within 6 miles of the surface. After a while it backed away again to 30 miles from the surface, but eventually, only 35 days after it was released, it hit the Moon.
PSF-1 lasted for a year and a half, before it hit the Moon. And there are a few "frozen orbits" where a spacecraft can orbit the Moon indefinitely. So those are good for mission planners who want their satellites to orbit the Moon for a long time without using a lot of fuel. But would be hard for a natural satellite to get into them.
I got this from the NASA page: Bizarre Lunar Orbits where they say
"There are actually a number of 'frozen orbits' where a spacecraft can stay in a low lunar orbit indefinitely. They occur at four inclinations: 27º, 50º, 76º, and 86º"
With moonlets of moons, the tidal effect isn't that important over short timescales. And after all even the Moon's orbit is not stable indefinitely, over billions of years.
SO CAN ANY MOONS HAVE MOONLETS?
Depending on the shape of the moon, and whether it has mascoms or not, a moon could in theory have stable moonlets for at least some period of time. But so far we haven’t found any moonlets of moons. There are some moons that could possibly have them in theory.
I answer this here: Robert Walker's answer to Do moons have moons?
Also wrote it up as science blog post: Can Moons Have Moonlets? Or Rings?
You can now get this as a kindle book along with many other answers on a similar vein, as part of
Simple Questions in Astronomy - Surprising Answers
Or as a separate kindle book for just this one:
Well this is what you have to work with
In black and white
And this is a colourised version - these are navcam photos so the originals are in black and white,
He says: “I messed about with the video a...
(more)Well this is what you have to work with
In black and white
And this is a colourised version - these are navcam photos so the originals are in black and white,
He says: “I messed about with the video and made it color. I matched the colors of the parts of the rover that were visible here and on mars. I may have got them wrong, but either way, it made a dull black and white video more alive.”
I’d have thought that it would be possible for video experts to make it more smooth by interpolating frames.
Curiosity is actually able to take 720p 10 fps video with its mast cam. But it doesn’t seem to use that capability much. I expect it’s partly because of the slow download speeds from Mars. Curiosity 2020 the next rover will also be able to zoom with its mastcam, a capability that Curiosity was going to have but they didn’t quite make it.
They probably will eventually. But it’s early days so far. They do plan to send an orbiter and a lander. I’m not sure if it’s time yet to send a lander.
The problem is that we only have flyby photog...
(more)They probably will eventually. But it’s early days so far. They do plan to send an orbiter and a lander. I’m not sure if it’s time yet to send a lander.
The problem is that we only have flyby photographs of Europa and they are only medium resolution. We could do with a much better understanding of it before sending anything to the surface.
As an example, what if much of the surface looks like this?
A rover or lander would run into serious trouble just landing there, never mind moving around. We don’t have high enough resolution photos yet to rule out something like this.
We also have the problem that it might have liquid water close to the surface, and whether or not, they think there are geological processes in the ice that take surface material and buries it into the oceans.
So then, if there’s a chance it can encounter liquid water - how do we sterilize it adequately to keep Earth life out of Europa’s ocean? We don’t yet have a way to sterilize spacecraft 100% though it is surely not impossible in theory.
The ideal way to study it’s oceans might be to fly through geysers - either natural ones which it might have but not certain if it does - or somehow to create an artificial one perhaps by impacting a sterilized “dumb” penetrator into the surface. That way we can collect the freshest possible samples, and do it without any significant risk of contaminating it with Earth microbes.
However by the time any orbiter gets there, perhaps by the 2020s, then we may well have the ability to build and launch a new orbiter, or lander or rover to get there in a much faster and shorter journey. So we might not lose a huge amount of time by focusing on the most capable possible orbiter for the first mission. I think that’s the priority myself, any extra mass you would put into a lander is best used to make the orbiter more capable - or perhaps to do a second orbiter mission to Saturn’s Enceladus. And then follow up with a lander depending on what you find. If you can make the lander 100% sterile, perhaps also miniaturized, then that would be ideal for planetary protection, give us another decade or two, and I think 100% sterile landers are maybe not totally impossible.
If we can’t land on Europa in a biologically reversible way, I think we should simply just postpone those landings until we can, and meanwhile study from orbit and flying through any plumes, artificial or natural. If we introduce Earth microbes to Europa irreversibly, that will affect not just us and our descendants but all future civilizations on Earth, as we’d no longer be able to study Europa as it was before the introduction of Earth life.
For more about this: Robert Walker's answer to If there is a possibility of life on Europa, then why did NASA land a craft on Titan and not Europa?
First, this is just amazingly unlikely. There are far fewer black holes than there are stars, and the sun is a far bigger target, or Jupiter. But there’s almost no chance even of a star getting as ...
(more)First, this is just amazingly unlikely. There are far fewer black holes than there are stars, and the sun is a far bigger target, or Jupiter. But there’s almost no chance even of a star getting as close as Neptune never mind the inner solar system. And the Earth is a tiny target in the inner solar system. Even Jupiter, even the Sun is absolutely minute compared to the vast distances between stars. Basically it’s not going to happen.
That’s for stellar sized black holes. As for mini black holes, they can’t be common either, or else we’d spot stars blinking out as a result of getting hit by black holes. And again a star is far more likely to be hit than any planet.
But let’s go with the idea. Suppose it’s a mini black hole and it’s created and then fired at us for reasons obscure by some advanced creatures (even ourselves?)
First, note - despite popular ideas, black holes don’t “suck you in” unless you are inside the event horizon - so close that the escape velocity is more than the speed of light. That’s really close except for black holes so large they mass thousands or millions of suns.
If it has the mass of the sun, the event horizon is 3 km away so you have to get that close to get sucked in. Of course you’d get many consequences of a solar mass object passing close to Earth, we don’t want that to happen but we won’t get sucked in. For even smaller black holes the event horizon radius is cms or less. For instance for an Earth mass black hole it is less than a centimeter. Schwarzschild radius - Wikipedia
HOW MUCH DELTA V DO WE NEED TO MISS EARTH
With the 120 years we need to deflect it by 6,371,000 meters in total (radius of the Earth assuming it’s a direct hit) or 6,371,000 /(100*365*24*69) meters per hour or about 10 centimeters per hour. to miss Earth. Or if it takes a while to get to it, say 60 years to reach it, then double that, 20 cm per hour.
So let’s run with that, delta v of 20 cm per hour to miss Earth. It would be much less if it did a close flyby, say, of the Sun, or Jupiter on the way, as tiny changes in velocity before a close flyby make big changes in the trajectory after a flyby, but we can’t assume that.
WHAT SIZE OF BLACK HOLE COULD WE DEFLECT EASILY?
Now suppose we can hit it at a relative velocity of 20 km / sec. for sake of argument. That’s reasonably feasible with flyby’s of Jupiter especially to increase the velocity of our mass, after all Voyager 1‘s 17 km / sec is not far off that. Then to achieve a 20 cm / hour change in velocity for the black hole, that’s 20/(100*60*60) meters per second, so it’s 20*1000*100*60*60/20 or 360 million for the ratio of velocity applied to velocity achieved. So we need a ratio of masses of 360 million too (by conservation of momentum)
If it is a 360 million ton black hole, a one ton impactor at 20 km / second will do the trick. So, we could deflect black holes of up to several billion tons fairly easily given 120 years of warning.That’s not a lot though. That’s like a really small asteroid turned into a black hole.
COULD WE DEFLECT A STELLAR MASS BLACK HOLE?
If it is stellar mass, then you are talking about 2,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 tons for the Sun. Divide by 3600 and it hardly makes any difference. There’s no way we’d deflect it even by cms / second.
COULD WE DEFLECT A MOON MASS BLACK HOLE?
If it’s a smaller black hole. say the mass of the Moon, 7.35 × 10^19 tons, again far too massive to shift. We’d need an impactor with a mass of about 200 billion tons for our 360 million ratio of masses. (7.35 × 10^19/(360 million))
Now, that’s not totally impossible. We couldn’t accelerate something that big to hit it directly, at least not with ordinary propulsion methods that we have today. But we could do it with “comet billiards” if we are lucky.
What we’d need to do is to try to find an asteroid or comet with mass about 200 billion tons. At density of 2 tons per cubic meter that would be cube root(200 billion*3/(4*pi)) or about 3 km in radius. There are many of those. So if we are lucky, we find one that is going to miss our black hole, but only just, way out in the Oort cloud. We would need to know our local neighbourhood very well to do that.
So then we can give this a gentle nudge with our 20 km / sec rocket, which now has to mass around 500 tons, not impossible (though a major challenge, launching lots of rockets of 10 tons perhaps) we can use it to deflect the black hole long before it reaches Earth.
STELLAR MASS BLACK HOLE - NO WAY
Basically your only option is to evacuate Earth, if it is a large stellar mass black hole. It would be very obvious from a distance due to its accretion disk and you’d want to evacuate long before it got to Earth. Light from behind the black hole would be absorbed by it. So it should seem black. But - it is likely to be surrounded by matter continually falling into it, in an accretion disk - and that can get very bright.
And then gravitational lensing lets you see the far side of the accretion disk, which is actually behind the black hole, warped above it. This is what the black hole of Interestellar would look like, to naked eye taking account of colour shifting.
Though the movie makers thought that would confuse the audience so simplified it to the more symmetrical: The Truth Behind Interstellar's "Scientifically Accurate" Black Hole
If we truly had a stellar mass black hole approaching Earth, then evacuating Earth would be only the first of our problems. It would disturb the whole solar system with its gravity. The accretion disk of hot matter swirling into it would be devastating also. Hard to see how we could survive, perhaps by hiding deep below the ice of an ice moon or comet, carefully selected so that it doesn’t get caught up in the accretion disk?
Luckily this scenario is vanishingly unlikely. It’s for all practical purposes for a star to do this and black holes are much rarer than stars. See last section for details.
SMALL FAST MOVING MICRO BLACK HOLE
If it is a small and fast moving black hole, maybe we don’t need to worry, it would just go straight through the Earth and out the other side. After all it is approaching Earth at the solar escape velocity or more.
There’s a useful black hole properties calculator here:
So a black hole of mass the same as the Earth would be less than a cm in radius. The main effects would be tidal due to its immense gravity, focused on a single spot, passing through the Earth.
If the Hawking radiation predictions are correct, the smallest black hole we can expect to find would be about the mass of the Moon as smaller ones would evaporate quickly.
Frank Heile, says that a black hole with the mass larger than the Moon would actually be gaining in mass because its temperature would be lower than the 2.7 degrees background radiation. So instead of radiating, net effect is it absorbs radiation.
Presumably closer to a star like us, with higher ambient radiation levels and equilibrium temperatures due to influence of the sun and the materials from the solar wind and galactic material - then somewhat smaller black holes could also be stable, or gaining in mass. All supposing the Hawking calculations are correct, which is a theoretical prediction that has to be confirmed by experiment or observation before we can be sure about it.
From outside its event horizon then a black hole behaves gravitationally like any other object - you can orbit it with a stable orbit for instance. A planet could have a mini black hole Moon, and so on.
A small black hole with the mass of the Moon would be only 1 mm in radius. That’s the radius of its event horizon (it doesn’t have a well defined surface, as the inside is just a mathematical point according to current ideas). You could put miniature spacecraft in orbit around a Moon mass black hole at distances of centimeters, even millimeters.
It’s only when you enter the event horizon - so closer than 1 mm in the case of a Moon mass black hole - that you get caught. All future timelines end up at its center and unless you have faster than light travel there is then no possibility of escape.
The galaxy can’t really have mini black holes like that, or if there are any they must be very rare indeed, or for some reason they must be harmless, or we’d see stars blinking out. But let’s continue with the idea and see what happens.
WHAT IF HAWKING IS WRONG IN HIS PREDICTION?
But if Hawking’s hypothesis / prediction of black hole radiation is incorrect (it hasn’t yet been confirmed), small black holes may be stable. If so, it takes a long time for a black hole to absorb the Earth and we could even have mini black holes inside our Earth. A ten billion ton black hole would take 700 times the age of our universe to absorb the Earth. A small black hole like that could pass all the way through the Earth with no noticeable effects. We could even have mini black holes orbiting inside all the planets and the sun, and we’d not notice. This is one, probably unlikely, explanation of some of the “dark matter” in the universe.
It could even perhaps create mini “atoms” “Gravitational Equivalent of Atoms” with conventional atoms orbiting a mini black hole according to this paper [1105.0265] Structure and Mass Absorption of Hypothetical Terrestrial Black Holes
However a micro black hole could cause minor earthquakes through tidal effects passing through the Earth.
“This is a hypothetical form of a black hole that could have been created in the very early stage of the universe, shortly after the big bang, when the Universe was still very dense. That's why they are also called primordial black holes. They have not yet been discovered and their existence is just speculation. However, if they exist they are very small (of the order of the size of an atom and smaller, their event horizon is just a few nanometres) and they would have the weight of a medium sized asteroid. They would pass right through the Earth with almost no effect in less than one minute. Some research from the Max Planck Institute in Germany has revealed that a micro black hole with a mass of a billion tons would penetrate through the Earth causing minor earthquakes of magnitude 4. The form of the waves would be unique and different from all forms a normal earthquake could cause. Measuring such waves would be strong evidence for this kind of black hole. At the moment we cannot completely dismiss the possibility that these primordial black holes may even be the famous dark matter itself. But until further evidence emerges this scenario seems very unlikely.”
I can’t find that paper at present (do say if you know where it is) but I found another paper here about effects of a billion ton black hole
What Would Happen if a Small Black Hole Hit the Earth? - Universe Today
It concludes that it would create a narrow hole through the Earth that “It creates a long tube of heavily radiative damaged material, which should stay recognizable for geological time” but its other effects would be negligible.
Worldbuilding stack exchange has a discussion here: On the immediate effects of a small, short term black hole
ALL THIS IS VERY UNLIKELY AND JUST FOR FUN
Just to reassure those who worry about such things. All this is so very very unlikely that it’s just for fun, this calculation. Ain’t going to happen. If it could happen with micro black holes, we’d see stars blinking out. While stellar sized black holes are much rarer than stars, so again, those are so incredibly unlikely to even come into our solar system that we don’t need to worry about those either.
Black holes are dangerous - especially the very large one thought to exist in the center of our galaxy. But we are in a quiet “suburb” of our galaxy and though there are black holes, or things that look like them at least, out here, the stars are so far apart we don’t need to worry about them either,
The chances of any celestial object even getting as close as Neptune in any one million year time period are minute:
The chances of any of these getting as close to the sun as Earth, hitting Earth or hitting the Sun are vanishingly small.
For the calculation see Debunk: Our Sun or Earth could be hit by a neutron star, black hole or star
See also
The original Stanford Torus proposal has detailed costings at the end. They base this on a mass driver on the Moon supplying most of the mass (consists mainly of the shielding). and they estimate i...
(more)The original Stanford Torus proposal has detailed costings at the end. They base this on a mass driver on the Moon supplying most of the mass (consists mainly of the shielding). and they estimate it as $190.8B in 1975 dollars. So that’s $851.99B in 2016 dollars.
So if’ that’s right, it would cost less than a trillion dollars. If we can reduce launch costs of course it would go down further. Estimate here Building the Colony and Making It Prosper
I used the conversion calculator here US Inflation Calculator
It’s the same though for any colony in space. I can’t see them being built just as places to live. But if there is a strong other reason for being there, people could end up living there as part of their work / project. And then if the habitats could be made very easy to maintain, then longer term people might be able to just “live there” but first they’d have to pay off their construction cost. And I’m not sure how easy it would be to make them easy to maintain long term.
This is about Muslims, more generally rather than Arabs particularly. They were the people who preserved the ancient Greek knowledge when in the West we were scraping their parchments and using the...
(more)This is about Muslims, more generally rather than Arabs particularly. They were the people who preserved the ancient Greek knowledge when in the West we were scraping their parchments and using them to write Christian religious texts. They were a scientific light in the world during the dark ages - like China. That was our dark age but the Islamic golden age, from the eighth century onwards. They introduced Arabic notation (the notation we all still use for numbers) and algebra to mathematics. They developed the astrolabe and other navigational aids. Made maps. Were amongst the oldest surviving universities in the world. Probably our industrial revolution would never have happened if it wasn't for Muslims preserving the ancient Greek knowledge and then adding to it and improving it and passing it back to the West.
"Muslims have always been eager to seek knowledge, both religious and secular, and within a few years of Muhammad's mission, a great civilization sprang up and flourished. The outcome is shown in the spread of Islamic universities; Al-Zaytunah in Tunis, and Al-Azhar in Cairo go back more than 1,000 years and are the oldest existing universities in the world. Indeed, they were the models for the first European universities, such as Bologna, Heidelberg, and the Sorbonne. Even the familiar academic cap and gown originated at Al-Azhar University.
"Muslims made great advances in many different fields, such as geography, physics, chemistry, mathematics, medicine, pharmacology, architecture, linguistics and astronomy. Algebra and the Arabic numerals were introduced to the world by Muslim scholars. The astrolabe, the quadrant, and other navigational devices and maps were developed by Muslim scholars and played an important role in world progress, most notably in Europe's age of exploration.
"Muslim scholars studied the ancient civilizations from Greece and Rome to China and India. The works of Aristotle, Ptolemy, Euclid and others were translated into Arabic. Muslim scholars and scientists then added their own creative ideas, discoveries and inventions, and finally transmitted this new knowledge to Europe, leading directly to the Renaissance. Many scientific and medical treatises, having been translated into Latin, were standard text and reference books as late as the 17th and 18th centuries."
That's from Muslim Science. Which then goes on to look into achievements individually in various fields. It's not exaggerated. I'm especially interested in the history of mathematics myself, and for sure our modern maths would have developed much later if it wasn't for Islam. See also the Wikipedia article Science in the Islamic world
I can answer best on mathematics. From the preserved writings of the Persian Muhammad ibn Musa al-Khwarizmi, and other Islamic mathematicians of the ninth century onwards, they were expert mathematicians, especially in the field of algebra.
A page from Muhammad ibn Musa al-Khwarizmi's book on algebra
It's the maths that I know most about, being a mathematician myself with a long term interest in the history of maths. The Greeks did do a lot, the Chinese too, and many other cultures such as the Sumerians and the Egyptians all contributed to modern maths. But the Islamic contributions were huge also. Amongst their achievements:
This is from the MacTutor history of maths under Arabic mathematics : forgotten brilliance?
On algebra:
"Perhaps one of the most significant advances made by Arabic mathematics began at this time with the work of al-Khwarizmi, namely the beginnings of algebra. It is important to understand just how significant this new idea was. It was a revolutionary move away from the Greek concept of mathematics which was essentially geometry.
"Algebra was a unifying theory which allowed rational numbers, irrational numbers, geometrical magnitudes, etc., to all be treated as "algebraic objects". It gave mathematics a whole new development path so much broader in concept to that which had existed before, and provided a vehicle for future development of the subject."
They were also very important in the development of the astrolabe
"The astrolabe, whose mathematical theory is based on the stereographic projection of the sphere, was invented in late antiquity, but its extensive development in Islam made it the pocket watch of the medievals. In its original form, it required a different plate of horizon coordinates for each latitude, but in the 11th century the Spanish Muslim astronomer az-Zarqallu invented a single plate that worked for all latitudes. Slightly earlier, astronomers in the East had experimented with plane projections of the sphere, and al-Biruni invented such a projection that could be used to produce a map of a hemisphere. The culminating masterpiece was the astrolabe of the Syrian Ibn ash-Shatir (1305-75), a mathematical tool that could be used to solve all the standard problems of spherical astronomy in five different ways."
Two pages from a book on the astrolabe by Nasir al-Din al-Tusi
This is in the field of maths. As I said above there were many other fields they excelled in. And - their science and maths shone out as a bright light in the history of maths and science at this time more so because in the West then there were few who were interested at all and they even scrubbed the writing from ancient texts on maths and science to reuse them to make copies of the Christian sacred texts.
This is an example, the only remaining copy of a work by the famous Greek mathematician Archimedes, which was erased by Christian monks in the thirteenth century to write prayers on.
The Greek text is faint, running left to right and the writing by the medieval Christian monks runs top to bottom.
This shows how in the dark ages most Christians just weren't interested in science and maths while the Islamic scholars of course were. Many Christians of course did develop a keen interest in the subject later on. But without the Islamic scholars much of the Greek learning would have been lost and they also made substantial contributions themselves.
It’s Europe also. And India and Japan are both interested, have had serious plans in the past though mainly active in robotics at present. And there are numerous Space X candidates and even NASA is...
(more)It’s Europe also. And India and Japan are both interested, have had serious plans in the past though mainly active in robotics at present. And there are numerous Space X candidates and even NASA is involved in robotic exploration of the Moon indirectly through participation with the astrobiotics lunar lander and through plans to send various cubesats to orbit the Moon in 2018 with the first SLS space launch. And it has plans for a robotic lunar prospector.
Also there’s the US commercial space sector, including SpaceX - though they have no interest in the Moon themselves for some reason, they won’t turn up the chance to earn money from sending spaceships to the Moon for their customers.
I think the most likely to succeed myself is the ESA village which has all the bases from the different agencies in one place. That way they can support each other in many ways.
I think that with a lunar base with astronauts from other countries coming and going, perhaps half a dozen there, perhaps eventually many more,that the US will not want to just send their astronauts to asteroids and ignore the Moon but would surelywant to send some of their people there too, if for no other reason,to see first hand what is going on.
So, yes I think they will get involved myself. And I think there is alos a chance that they will at an early stage. It so depends on the president in the US. President Bush was keen to return to the Moon. President Obama said “We’ve been there, done that” and pretty much prohibited NASA from even thinking about humans to the Moon saying they should focus all their longer range plans on the most effective way to send humans to Mars, ignoring the Moon. So they were like opposite positions in this debate. What will the next president say?
We have no way to tell as neither Hilary Clinton nor Donald Trump nor indeed Bernie Sanders have said anything at all on what they think about the Moon first versus go to Mars and ignore the Moon.
But whatever the US government say, the US commercial companies may well be involved. Not just SpaceX ferrying customers. Also Bigelow Aerospace designs inflatable habitats and their habitats may well be amongst the first habitats on the Moon.
See also my Case For Moon First
Well it probably will happen in the near future. Perhaps as soon as the 2020s. Amongst the differences in future planned missions.
Well it probably will happen in the near future. Perhaps as soon as the 2020s. Amongst the differences in future planned missions.
For more on this see my
Case For Moon First (free online copy)
also available on Kindle as Case For Moon First: Gateway to Entire Solar System - Open Ended Exploration, Planetary Protection at its Heart
It’s because it is designed to work on a spacecraft that is spinning constantly. The reason Juno spins is to save on weight.
Most spacecraft have gyroscopes to control their attitude. But Juno neede...
(more)It’s because it is designed to work on a spacecraft that is spinning constantly. The reason Juno spins is to save on weight.
Most spacecraft have gyroscopes to control their attitude. But Juno needed to save weight, and more importantly also, power because it’s a solar powered satellite and to be able to continue under solar power at the distance of Jupiter it needs massive solar panels. And even so it has a total of only 500 watts available for everything. I think it’s the first spacecraft to go as far as Jupiter relying only on solar power.
Others use radio thermal generation - radioisotopes that are so radioactive they remain hot to the touch and the heat is used to generate power for the duration of the mission (not nuclear power plants, they don’t use chain reactions, just the heat, so for instance they use Plutonium 238, a form of plutonium that’s useless for bombs or for fission reactors).
So their ingenious solution is to rotate the entire spacecraft which helps to keep it stable in its orientation. It needs to point towards the sun for solar power. But the orbit is designed in such a way that it’s also got Jupiter to one side as it orbits it, so this means its instruments scan across the surface of Jupiter. Each of its instruments gets a shot at imaging Jupiter, one scan line at a time, as it spins around.
Other spacecraft have used this technique of a scan line where you just take repeatedly photograph a line of pixels and then combine them together to make an image which is endless in length, finite in width. This works well for photographs of scenes that don’t change much from one minute to the next.
This is a rarely used technique, but it has been used before, notably on the Pioneer missions, for instance Pioneer 10 and 11:
“Pioneers 6-9 demonstrated the practicality of spinning a spacecraft to stabilize it and to simplify control of its orientation. Measurements made by these spacecraft greatly increased our knowledge of the interplanetary environment and the effects of solar activity on Earth. New information was gathered about the solar wind, solar cosmic rays, the structure of the Sun's plasma and magnetic fields, the physics of particles in space, and the nature of storms on the Sun which produce solar flares.”
The Pioneer Missions, see also Pioneer 10 which describes the instruments including a camera, which it used to take photos such as these:
One advantage is that it lets all its instruments operate simultaneously. JunoCan will be able to take many images, but the main bottleneck is transmission back to Earth, as so often the case with deep space images - remember how long it took New Horizons to return images to Earth? Juno is not so far away, but still will only return about 40 megabytes of data for each 14 day orbit. JunoCam
Still it should be able to return some spectacular images. Jupiter is huge, the Red Spot alone is comparable in size to Earth even now that it’s shrunk a bit.
It's 1600 by 1200 pixels and will achieve 15 km / pixel - which is nearly 10 times better than Hubble's best resolution of 119 km/pixel and at any time after that.
By comparison, Galileo's CCD was 800 by 800
It will be able to take photos that are better resolution than this photo by Galileo which it says is 10s of kms per pixel:
So it’s not too shabby :).
As another example, in this photo from voyager
Programs Will Share Excitement of Voyager Discoveries
the small white spot to bottom right of Jupiter’s red spot has a diameter same as Earth, so about 12,742 km. So at 15 km / pixel, it would be 849 pixels wide. And the Red Spot itself, about twice its diameter, would fill an entire image of JunoCam at its closest. So you can expect images like this one
to high enough resolution so that if you put it on a screen 1600 by 1200 pixels, this image would fill the entire screen. Indeed if you click through to that image here: APOD: August 27, 1996 click on the image on that page to see it full resolution, then if I’ve got it right, that’s very approximately the resolution for the very highest resolution images from JunoCam taken when it is closest to Jupiter.
It starts its first science orbit at the end of August so we’ll see those first images some time around then hopefully.
It's now in a 53 day orbit, which gives them lots of time to test out the instruments before the first science mission flyby. They then have another 53 days to get the data back from that and work on what happened, before finally doing another burn when closest to Jupiter (most fuel efficient time to do it) before going into the final 14 day science orbit. So we get first science at the end of August. And it's another two-three months before they do regular science missions - I think its that 53 + 14 so 67 days after that if I understand it right, as I don't think they'd be able to do science during the second burn to reduce it to 14 days - that's interpretation, they didn't actually say that but don't see how they could.
So, that second burn is mid October according to Juno probe enters into orbit around Jupiter - BBC News
So If I got this right, expect some science return at the end of August. Probably nothing during that mid October because of the burn. So then the next science images and data would be end of October / early November and then from then on get data every two weeks until the instruments give out due to the high levels of radiation there.
It takes a long time to download data, 40 megabytes of photos for instance takes 14 days for the JunoCam to download them. So I think that's partly why they need as much as 53 days just to check out the instruments etc before the first science and then again want that 53 days again, to have a lot more than 14 days to download the science data and check things over for the first orbit after the first science.
Then after they have done all that they should be ready to do it more quickly, only 14 days to download the data and set up the next science run for each close flyby.
Well, first I’m answering here from Tolkien’s writings, not the movie adaptations. I’d say Tom Bombadil, not sure whether you call him powerful in the sense of Sauron, but in the sense that he is t...
(more)Well, first I’m answering here from Tolkien’s writings, not the movie adaptations. I’d say Tom Bombadil, not sure whether you call him powerful in the sense of Sauron, but in the sense that he is totally fearless and is also the oldest creature we meet there, and even the Ring has absolutely no power over him, he treats it as a trinket. Says he has the same kind of strength the Earth itself has. If you rank the beings by power you have to leave him out of that ranking. He is neither at the top nor the bottom but just not interested and nobody else has power over him.
It’s a great shame that he was left out of the movies as he gives a new perspective on the ring. For him it is just a trinket that he would soon forget if it was entrusted to him, probably just drop it somewhere and forget he had it.
The Ents have a kind of relentless power, like that of trees or plants. Takes a lot to stir them up but if they get stirred up then hard to resist though they can be destroyed by fire.
Gandalf has a hidden veiled power. He seldom uses it which is why he seems like a simple wizard. You only really see it in his fight with the Balrog. He’s been tasked with using more subtle methods and to display his power only when he absolutely has to. He is bearer of one of the rings of power, Narya given it by Cirdan of the gray havens.
The hobbits themselves have a certain resilience that makes them much stronger than you’d expect a bit like Tom Bombadil in some ways, a resilience that comes from their closeness to the Earth. They can carry the ring for years, and not be affected by it.
Men are amongst the weakest when it comes to the ring, but they are brave in battle, and the kings like Aragorn have a certain strength to them, and as well as strength in battle, he has “the hands of a healer” which we see first when he helps counteract some of the effects on Frodo of his wound from the black rider, enough for him to continue to Rivendel .
Galadriel has a magical strength to her a confidence, and groundedness. She has a magic of healing, of preserving against corruption and decay, of healing and regeneration, and able to hide her thought from Sauron. She’s bearer of Nenya
Elrond and the higher elves have immense powers that come from their presence in the other realm, similar to the way the black riders are in both this world and another realm, but bright, like a very bright light shining from them if you could see their true nature. Elrond is the bearer of Vilya. Glorfindel is also mentioned as an elf of great power.
They are also immortal.
Arwen is half elven which is why she had the option to choose whether to die like a mortal human or to stay as an elf and live for ever or at least to the end of this world system.
As for beings we don’t meet but hear of directly, Varda who the high elves sing to when the hobbits first meet them in book 1 of LOR, also known as Elbereth or Gilthoniel is one of the beings that helped to sing our world into being, the Valar. She is particularly associated with stars, she scattered them into the sky.
Eru Ilúvatar is a bit like the Christian God but not exactly because he doesn’t create the world by himself, it comes into being as a result of a song sung by the Valar. He doesn’t appear in the LOR or Hobbit at all.
So, I’d say those are amongst the most powerful beings we meet. Sauron isn’t really that powerful a figure, intrinsically, he’s on a similar level to Gandalf and Saruman, Sauron, he got his power through deceit and study of dark magic and such like. They are all Maiar while Sauron’s master Melkor was one of the fifteen Ainur who helped sing the world into being.
This is the story of the singing into being of the world. It’s at the core of Tolkein’s thinking Music of the Ainur
What Tom Bombadill is is never made clear. He doesn’t seem to fit any of those categories. Some say he is a Maiar but that doesn’t seem convincing, why would he not be susceptible to the ring and how could he call himself oldest? He can’t be an Ainur as they are all named although when he calls himself the oldest, that makes him sound like one of them. I think he is included partly so that we don’t think of the LOR as cut and dried with everything explained to us, so that some of it is still mysterious.
Then we have the Dragons. They are very powerful but at the time of the LOR they have lost their power and indeed may even be extinct after the death of Smaug at least the great dragons though smaller cousins may have survived until later. The most powerful of the dragons could destroy rings of power with their fire, though none of them were powerful enough to destroy the One Ring.
The Balrog’s are basically fallen Maiar similar in power to Gandalf and Saruman and Sauron. When Gandalf struggled with the Balrog then he was in a more or less equally matched struggle with him which is why it went on so long and was so exhausting for him.
The Army of the Dead are just ghosts, and most of their power came through instilling fear.
The orcs and trolls don’t have any special powers, are just physically strong and the trolls are huge.
The Great Eagles are somewhat magical as well, mainly, they fly high, can see far and are wise. But they are vulnerable to arrows.
The black riders are just humans who have had magic rings for so long they no longer have much substance in this world. Their main power is fear and despair. They are not really physically that strong and they also are not very confident when they encounter just the hobbits plus Aragorn many miles away from Mordor. And after all they are basically unwilling slaves originally that Sauron has bent to his wishes.
When they encounter him on Weathertop, they prefer to just wound Frodo and wait for him to succumb. Many say this is a plot weakness but I think myself it perfectly captures what they are like, their basic cowardness behind all the fear they instill in others.
But become much more terrifying and stronger when surrounded by armies, they get their strength and confidence I think from the presence of others around them that they dominate, mainly through fear and despair. Intrinsically they aren’t very powerful - they could be but are kind of conflicted. And basically are humans with rings, not Maiar like Sauron, Saruman, or Gandalf.
Their flying mounts are basically a kind of pterosaur type creature, a flying dinosaur like creature. They are mainly just strong and with the power of flight but capable of being killed.
The hobbits have the advantage of being able to move very quietly and easily stay hidden.
Shadowfax also is a creature of power, able to run faster than the wind.
I know I’ve left out many of the characters, but that’s a summary of some of them. So it’s not really a linear ranking, rather that they all have different capabilities.
And the story is about how the hobbits, in many ways feeble and insignificant creatures, who even got left out of the old lists of the living creatures on middle Earth somehow manage to finish this quest to destroy the ring, but are only able to do it through all the other beings they meet who assist them in many ways at crucial points. And they succeed partly because they are so insignificant, tiny, easily ignored that Sauron gives them very little attention. A direct onslaught of him would probably never have succeeded even if all the “free people” banded together to try to defeat him.
So - in the book anyway - it’s about showing how it’s not necessarily through power that you achieve things and even the very weak and feeble sometimes have their role to play and can be the pivot of everything, through no choice or plan of their own.
And it’s about staying true to your purpose, even when it seems there is no hope of success.
Hope that helps.
Because they have worked out its orbit from making a number of observations. Once you know the orbit, you can then use the gravitational effects of the known planets in the solar system and other o...
(more)Because they have worked out its orbit from making a number of observations. Once you know the orbit, you can then use the gravitational effects of the known planets in the solar system and other objects like our Moon to predict where it will be for centuries into the future.
There are some uncertainties in these predictions
In this case they are able to predict that it will stay at about the same distance from Earth,so 100 times the distance to the Moon, for several more centuries and by tracking backwards they figure out it has been where it is for a century or so. In the future after perhaps five centuries it will leave Earth and head off into interplanetary space again.
They can’t say for sure that it will never hit the Earth though. Our predictions are accurate over centuries or thousands of years but not over millions of years.
Actually every object in an Earth crossing orbit will get “cleared out” within about 20 million years as that’s how long it takes Earth to “clear its orbit” They don’t necessarily hit the Earth. Some hit the Moon, some hit Venus or Mars, others hit the Sun or Jupiter, others get ejected from our solar system. But one way or another they are nearly all gone in 20 million years. (Some exceptions,for instance I think trojan asteroids are longer term).
So, without detailed calculations, just based on the general population, it could do any of those. Perhaps hitting the sun or Jupiter most likely. Ejected from the solar system also. Hitting Earth is generally not that likely because Earth is so small, but because it is already in an orbit so similar to Earth’s I would expect there’s a somewhat higher chance of hitting Earth than for most asteroids. But we are okay for centuries at least with this one. And there are no asteroids currently known that are going to hit Earth in the next century. And especially we have now (just a few years back) found all the asteroids of diameter 10 km and above in near Earth orbits, and none of those are going to hit Earth in the next century.
If we do find an object headed our way, we can do something about it.
If we know their orbits well, and know a decade or so in advance, we can deflect even quite large ones enough so that they will miss Earth. It only needs a small change, push them enough so they change their speed by about 72 meters per hour , and ten years later that changes a direct hit to a miss because it all adds up, like every day they are 1.75 kilometers further away. And if they do a flyby of Earth before they hit, as most do, it becomes even more sensitive, just need to change their speed by centimeters per day and they will miss Earth. Sometimes you just need to paint the asteroid white, which for a spinning asteroid will change its velocity by the Yarkovsky effect.
The longer in advance the better. Unless it is really huge we can probably deflect it even with a year or two of notice but that would mean things like nuclear weapons or lots of impacts - there's also the idea of deflecting a smaller asteroid to hit a larger one which has a multiplier effect and often there are smaller asteroids in similar enough orbits to do that, inter asteroid billiard balls .
But even with a massive one, especially if it does a flyby of Earth first, then it's just centimeters per day, so not that hard to achieve. If it does a flyby, there's a small "keyhole" in space just a couple of hundreds of meters in diameter typically which it has to fly through to hit Earth next time around, so if you can catch it a decade before flying through a keyhole, you just need to deflect it cms per day to miss that keyhole. E.g. 100 meters is enough to get it out of the keyhole, and 10 years in advance so that's 3650 days to shift it by 10000 centimeters, so that's 10000/3650 = 2.74 cms a day is enough to shift it out of the keyhole so it misses Earth the next time after the flyby. Gives a rough idea how it works.
Note that from time to time astronomers do discover objects with a chance of hitting Earth. Example, 2002 NT7, large enough to have potentially global effects, had a risk of 1 in a million of hitting Earth in February 2019. That was a 99.9999% chance it would miss. Again, no surprise to astronomers, given that it was already a near certainty that it would miss - with more follow up observations they proved for sure that it will miss. More about these misses here:Near-Earth object (Wikipedia)
That’s usually the way it goes. If we found one headed our way, it would go the opposite direction, to start off with it’s a 1 in a million chance, as they find out more instead of it missing they find there’s a 1 in a thousand, then a 1 in 100, then eventually tehy find it will hit. It’s very unlikely that they find out right away on the day that they discover it except in the case where they spot it for the first time a few days away from Earth which has happened a couple of times with really tiny asteroids on collision course with Earth. Anything of any size, then there’s a decent chance we spot it at least a week to three weeks before it hits, plenty of time to evacuate. There’s a tiny chance of a hit from the direction of the sun, but much reduced since the ATLAS system started operating recently.
We could reduce the risk to almost nothing if we put a space telescope in orbit close to Venus’ orbit looking outwards at a cost of about half a billion dollars - it would find even really tiny ones of 40 meters upwards and even some of 20 meters upwards, and find a large percentage of even the smallest ones within 6.5 years. Then after that, nearly all possible asteroid impact would be things we know about and can prepare for decades in advance. So astronomers know how to do the search, they just need the funding which is less than the cost of a presidential campaign, indeed the 2016 presidential campaign may well cost six to twenty times the amount needed to pay for one of these telescopes. How Much Will it Cost to Become President In 2016? | Investopedia Similarly, the UK is considering spending 200 times that on renewing Trident.
So, it is well within the capabilities of even any single one of the wealthier states on Earth to pretty much retire this risk unilaterally without a significant impact on their economy. Never mind doing it collaboratively. Indeed also many individual billionaires could do this out of their own money. We could probably have several of these telescopes there indeed, even dozens of space telescopes looking out for asteroids and the world’s largest economies would hardly notice it. So it’s well within our capabilities as a technological species to do this, easily, hardly notice it.
Also the costs of spy satellites are several times this. We could launch four to six of these asteroid detection satellites, for every one of the spy satellites the US launches into orbit, judging by the cost of this declassified 1970s spy satellite, KH-11 Kennen with an estimated unit cost of 2.26 to 3.17 billion US 2015 dollars. Just one of them would be enough to find most of the asteroids of 40 meters and upwards that risk hitting Earth within 6.5 years.
I think that if we did somehow make first contact with ETs they might be astonished at how much we spend on satellites to spy on each other, and how little we spend on satellites to look out for asteroids from space (no dedicated satellites for this so far, though NeoWise is a satellite that got repurposed for asteroid detection after its primary mission was over)
See also my Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them (read online for free)
Also available on Kindle
Giant Asteroid Is Headed Your Way? : How We Can Detect and Deflect Them (Amazon)
Well it’s the same anywhere in space outside Earth, that we can’t breathe. There is nowhere outside of Earth that we know of with a breathable atmosphere. And it’s not just that, even with an oxyge...
(more)Well it’s the same anywhere in space outside Earth, that we can’t breathe. There is nowhere outside of Earth that we know of with a breathable atmosphere. And it’s not just that, even with an oxygen mask you still can’t breathe because the air pressure is too low, so your lungs can’t work. They can’t work because the water lining your lungs will boil in the vacuum. That’s why astronauts need to wear a full body spacesuit, because they have to keep the air under high pressure, not far of Earth pressure, to be able to breathe at all.
Then, there are the solar storms. These can kill you. Or make you seriously sick.It’s probably not true that the Apollo astronauts would have died on the Moon if caught out in a solar storm on the surface. But they would have had to be rushed straight to hospital when they got back for radiation treatment and would be in a serious trouble.
Then you also have the micrometeorites. If two people spend 2700 hours or about a year of 8 hour days doing EVA for the ISS it’s about 6% chance of being hit by a very tiny micrometeorite. The chance of getting hit during a 10 hour EVA is roughly the same as your chance of dying of a road accident in a year, so not huge. But if you spent a lot of time out of doors on the Moon in a spacesuit it’s a significant risk.
Basically we need some very good reason to be there. Not a place to go to live for it’s own sake, But it’s the same for Mars. All those things also apply to Mars except the micrometeorites.
Another issue for the Moon is that you have 14 hour nights and 14 hour days. It gets very hot in the daytime and bitterly cold at night.
Nevertheless, if you look at it another way not as a place to colonize, or not right away, but as a place to set up aresearch base or even tourist hotels etc, then it’s pretty good actually. And if there is anywhere in space where it is worth setting up a commercial operation to exploit things there, the Moon is a good bet. So think of it not so much like a colony - nowhere in space is like that in the near future at least. But rather like Antarctica or like an oil rig or a nuclear submarine or some place that goes to very hostile places - it’s like that. If there is some reason to be there we may well set up anoutpost there. Whetehr we have colonies I think depends on having a good reason to be there, for lots of people, enough for a colony, finance to sujpport them, and some way to make sure that habitats there are reasonably self contained and easy to maintain .We aren’t quite there yet.
You might like my
Case For Moon First (free online copy)
also available on Kindle as Case For Moon First: Gateway to Entire Solar System - Open Ended Exploration, Planetary Protection at its Heart
Elon Musk has said that there is no way a Mars colony can export anything that could pay for the cost of exports to Earth. He agrees that a colony needs to pay for imports, and proposes to support ...
(more)Elon Musk has said that there is no way a Mars colony can export anything that could pay for the cost of exports to Earth. He agrees that a colony needs to pay for imports, and proposes to support the Mars colony by licensing inventions and other intellectual property produced by the colonists on Mars to Earth.
"I don't think it's going to be economical to mine things on Mars and then transport them back to Earth because the transport costs would overwhelm the value of whatever you mined, but there will likely be a lot of mining on Mars that's useful for a Mars base, but it's unlikely to be transferred back to Earth. I think the economic exchange between a Mars base and Earth would be mostly in the form of intellectual property"
Elon Musk interview on the future of energy and transport - and more quotes like this.
Robert Zubrin covers this in more detail:
"Another alternative is that Mars could pay for itself by transporting back ideas. Just as the labor shortage prevalent in colonial and 19th century America drove the creation of Yankee Ingenuity's flood of inventions, so the conditions of extreme labor shortage combined with a technological culture and the unacceptability of impractical legislative constraints against innovation will tend to drive Martian ingenuity to produce wave after wave of invention in energy production, automation and robotics, biotechnology, and other areas. These inventions, licensed on Earth, could finance Mars even as they revolutionize and advance terrestrial living standards as forcefully as 19th Century American invention changed Europe and ultimately the rest of the world as well."
I think there may be other possibilities of exports, but the case is much harder to make for Mars than for the Moon., because so much delta v is needed to export materials from the surface.
In the case of the Moon, then using Hoyt’s cislunar tether system, which would not be that hard to set up, you can export to Earth LEO or back to Earth itself with almost no delta v. It’s hard to beat that. So surely the Moon would undercut Mars for anything that can be produced on the Moon.
I think we should go to the Moon first anyway, and go slow with Mars for planetary protection issues. The Moon is far more interesting than most realize. I think if humans go to Mars they should stay in orbit for now and explore the surface with avatars controlled by close to real time telepresence from orbit or from its moons. That’s lower cost, safer and I think it would get much more exploration too for the same cost without risking introducing Earth microbes to Mars to confuse the searches for indigenous Mars life or indeed perhaps make it extinct. Either that or explore from Earth
It is possible for Deimos to export to Earth, less delta v than from the surface, but again it might well be undercut by the Moon.There are a few ideas though of things that could be exported from Mars.
Anyway this is my section about the commercial value of Mars in my “Case for Moon First” book: Case For Moon First - Commercial value of Mars
I’d say, not totally impossible. But on Earth the first multicellular life arose only half a billion years ago. So it took over 4 billion years to get to complex life like us from the first life on Earth.
...
(more)I’d say, not totally impossible. But on Earth the first multicellular life arose only half a billion years ago. So it took over 4 billion years to get to complex life like us from the first life on Earth.
The thing is we just don’t know if that is typical. Venus could easily have had microbial life in the past if Earth is an example.And it’s possible that that life still exists in its clouds.
The idea here is that Venus started off Earth like in the early solar system. But at some point it dried up, lost its ocean due to a runaway greenhouse effect, which didn't affect Earth in the same way because continental drift on Earth continually buries and circulates the carbonates.
Though the surface of Venus is amazingly inhospitable, the layer at the top of its clouds is in many cases the most habitable location in our solar system after Earth - almost Earth like in temperature, pressure, and atmospheric composition (without the oxygen of course). It has one major drawback, droplets of concentrated sulfuric acid.
However we do have acidophiles on Earth that survive in conditions not far off the acidity of Venus clouds - in sulfuric acid outflows from mines on Earth.
So - it's possible that there is sulfuric acid tolerant life in the Venus clouds. The other main problem with the high Venus clouds is that there are no solid surfaces of course. But it could have evolved in the early solar system and then migrated to the clouds as the surface got drier and hotter.
The main question is, could the life find some way to stay aloft? The residence time of particles is months rather than days - so - that makes it easier, and turbulence could return some of the life to the tops of the habitable layer after it reproduces - but it's still quite a challenge.
So, we might find out about ancient Venusian life from its descendants if they still live in the clouds. If not, there’s another way we could find out. At present with its thick atmosphere it’s almost impossible for meteorites to get from Venus to Earth even with a ten kilometer impact. So far at least, we have no Venus meteorites.
But in the early solar system, the Venus atmosphere may have been thinner, and the impactors were larger too, of the order of 100 km diameter upwards.We might have meteorites from early Venus elsewhere in the solar system.
If so, the easiest place to look for them is on the Moon. It would be rather astonishing if they developed a civilization there so quickly when it took so long on Earth. But we might find evidence of meteorites from the early solar system on tge Moon, from at least the end of the “late heavy bombardment” in the form of meteorites on the Moon and incorporated into the regolith and it may have meteorites from early Mars and Venus. Back to the Moon: The Scientific Rationale for Resuming Lunar Surface Exploration, section 3.1.1
Yes they might be. We can only see a few meters into them from the surface, so we don’t know how far the caves extend, especially as the regions near the pits are probably partly filled in with deb...
(more)Yes they might be. We can only see a few meters into them from the surface, so we don’t know how far the caves extend, especially as the regions near the pits are probably partly filled in with debris as well. But they could be massive caves.
Some of them could be large enough to fit an entire city within, in the low lunar gravity. I’d say the top two future lunar base locations are the lava tube caves, and the “peaks of eternal light” at the poles.
So far we can only see cave entrances, but the extensive systems of rills and the Grail data are suggestive of larger caves to discovered. Some of the possible lava tube gravitational signatures are over 100 kilometers long and several kilometers wide. Yhat's similar in size to the O'Neil cylinder space habitat with a land area of several hundred square miles (the O'Neil cylinder consists of a pair of cylinders, each 20 miles long and 4 miles in diameter, with total land area 500 square miles).
Each such cave could house several million people. This may be a long shot, but isn't it amazing, to think that the Moon could have caves as vast as this, similar in size to an O'Neil cylinder, and we simply wouldn't know yet?
EXAMPLE LUNAR CAVE SKYLIGHTS - LACUS MORTIS, MARIUS PIT AND THE KING-Y NATURAL BRIDGE
The Lacus Mortis area has possible volcanic cinder cones, as well as the more common shield volcano features, rilles, and a partially collapsed cave entrance with a gentle slope leading into it. This is the destination for the Astrobiotics mission in 2014.
Partially collapsed "skylight" in the Lacus Mortis region of the Moon.
Photos of the Lacus Mortis pit from various angles, which were used to build a 3D model of the pit, assuming that it is a cave entrance.
Another interesting pit is the Marius Hills pit entrance, original destination for astrobiotics:
This shows the topography - it's about 40 meters deep The crispness of the landform suggests the collapse happened less than a billion years ago, and the lack of any raised rim or eject suggests it formed through collapse, not through a meteorite impact.
This image shows an oblique view. It's viewed from an angle of 45 degrees, and the light from the sun is at an angle of 34 degrees from the vertical. As a result they were able to confirm that the area of the floor illuminated in this image continues at least twelve meters under the overhang. Papers here, and here .
This shows the location of the Marius pit along a lunar rille. Image from page 5 of Exploration of Planetary Skylights and Tunnels
Another "honorable mention" goes to the region of King crater, which is of special interest for its remarkable natural bridge.
Lunar natural bridge feature King Y, probably caused by a double collapse. It's about 7 meters in width and a 20 meters walk to cross it.
The lunar caves may also have unusual minerals that formed as the lava that created the cave slowly cooled and differentiated.
The NASA PERISCOPE project, currently a phase II concept study, could potentially give us a way to see into lunar caves from orbit using femtosecond laser photography which lets you "see around corners" to parts of the cave that were never within the line of sight of the orbiter.
We may may get our first views into the interior of a lunar cave from ground level some time in 2017, with the Japanese Hayuto Lunar X prize contender Moonraker, which will explore the Lacus Mortis pit "skylight" and then lower its two wheeled rover Tetris into the pit . For details of this mission, see Robotic missions to the Moon, already planned, or near future, from 2017 onwards, below.
See also Lunar caves as a site for a lunar base in my Case for Moon First - the above is a slightly shortened edited version of it.
It’s 100 times further than the Moon (3000 Earth diameters away) and been in that orbit for nearly a century.and 40 to 100 meters in diameter. And should continue in that orbit for several centuries to come
...
(more)It’s 100 times further than the Moon (3000 Earth diameters away) and been in that orbit for nearly a century.and 40 to 100 meters in diameter. And should continue in that orbit for several centuries to come
It’s in a rather unusual orbit. It is always in roughly the same part of the celestial sphere as seen from Earth, tracing out a big figure of eight in the sky.
Earth's first 'quasi-satellite' identified
That seems bizarre at first, but think it through. It’s in a one year orbit around the sun like Earth. If at some point it is between Earth and the sun, then half a year later, it’s going to be further away from the sun than Earth (has to have the same semimajor axis), and that makes it still in the same direction in space from the Earth.
So - it’s a bit strange to call it a moon since it’s always in the same direction from Earth. But on the other hand, each year it crosses the Earth to Sun line twice, so in that sense, it sort of is in an orbit around Earth, but only in a rotating co-ordinate system.
This shows its orbit though not so easy to follow what is going on as its orbit is so unusual, this is in a rotating frame so with Earth stationary and from this point of view it seems to “orbit” Earth. It’s inclination is not as huge as it seems in this video, it’s inclination is only a bit over 7 degrees so it is pretty much in the same plane as Earth’s orbit:
NASA announcement: Small Asteroid Is Earth's Constant Companion
Wikipedia article with more details (469219) 2016 HO3 and see also Surprise! Newfound Asteroid Is 'Quasi-Moon' of Earth
It’s about 5 km / sec delta v to get to it from Earth in an energy efficient orbit, and about 1 km / second to get back to Earth, relying on aerobraking in the Earth’s atmosphere. NHATS Object/Trajectory Details
Could we do anything useful with it? Assuming two metric tons per cubic meter for a very rough idea, and diameter 40 to 100 meters as they suggest, that would be . between 2.26 million tons and 8.38 million tons so it's a lot of material. By comparison a Stanford Torus requires 10 million tons. So you could do a fair bit with it, depending what it is made up of.
If it is an iron meteorite, you could use the second half of the Mond process, react the nickel with Carbon Monoxide in a big balloon warmed up enough in the sun to reach the temperature for nickel carbonyl gas of 50–60 °C and then convert back to the pure metal in 3D printers at 220–250 °C. Other metals can do the same but at higher temperatures .But we don't know what it is yet, could be a source of volatiles also. Might be useful in some way. If nothing else it could be useful for shielding.
If it has useful resources then you could supply them to LEO or to the Earth’s surface using that 1 km / sec return trajectory with aerobraking.
Or perhaps it is useful where it is at some point? Or just of scientific interest.
Also, I wonder if it could be the first of many smaller objects in similar orbits. At any time the Earth probably has at least one asteroid of diameter a meter orbiting it and probably many smaller ones, I wonder if it has a cloud of these more distant moons as well? Simulations Show Mini-Moons Orbiting Earth
It might happen in the 2020s, with ESA, Russia and China especially keen. China especially has several robotic missions in the near future, building up to sending humans there eventually. Robotic m...
(more)It might happen in the 2020s, with ESA, Russia and China especially keen. China especially has several robotic missions in the near future, building up to sending humans there eventually. Robotic missions to the Moon will resume as soon as next year with many Google x-prize contenders. I think myself that it’s good to have a robotic exploration phase first. And most of the modern ideas have robots operated telerobotically from Earth and also working autonomously building the first bases on the Moon before the humans get there.
I think the ESA is the most advanced in their plans in some ways, with their ideas for a lunar village and ideas for 3D printing the habitats. It’s the most international of all the ideas, many nations joining together with separate habitats in a lunar village with shared resources as well.
Bigelow aerospace is developing inflatable habitats that would be useful for a lunar base also.
NASA is the one exception here, they are so focused on Mars and they think the Moon is a distraction for humans. Though that’s just since Obama. The Bush administration wanted to go to the Moon first and we have no idea what the next president will advocate as none of them so far have said anything either way about a return to the Moon. They are building the large SLS but it’s first human flight will only do a loop around the Moon. Will just have to see what the next administration think.
But whether they send humans to the Moon or not, NASA also are involved in sending robots back to the Moon in various ways.
So far nobody has any definite dates for sending humans back to the Moon, but there are reasonably definite dates for various robotic missions. In my “Case for Moon First”, here is my summary of the robotic missions for the near future: Case For Moon First - ROBOTIC MISSIONS TO THE MOON, ALREADY PLANNED, OR NEAR FUTURE
The problem here is that Mars gets only half the sunlight Earth does. Even if you could somehow get an Earth atmosphere on Mars, it would not be warm enough for trees to grow at the equator. For th...
(more)The problem here is that Mars gets only half the sunlight Earth does. Even if you could somehow get an Earth atmosphere on Mars, it would not be warm enough for trees to grow at the equator. For that reason, terraforming ideas involve either space mirrors of similar scale to the planet in total area - or continual production of powerful greenhouse gases into the future for ever, or a mixture of both, to keep it warm.
Indeed, it’s a puzzle how Mars managed to be warm enough for liquid water in the past when it had oceans. An Earth like atmosphere wouldn’t make it warm enough for that to happen. Perhaps the early Mars gas had powerful greenhouse gases in it such as methane? Or perhaps it was just frozen over for most of the time except at times when Mars had very eccentric orbits taking it closer to the sun for part of each orbit (it’s eccentricity varies a lot and is sometimes far more eccentric than it is now).
Also on long timescales of millions of years, then Mars would lose all its water to space, through solar storms unless you found a way to prevent that. So again you need a way to resupply that water to Mars as it is lost, if you want it to be permanently terraformed.
As well as that, there’s lots more to think about. The many cycles, for instance on Earth CO2 gets brought back into the atmosphere long term through volcanoes - subducted as limestone through continental drift. On Mars long term it just turns into limestone and is gone for ever. You can turn it back into CO2 with powerful acids, or have microbes to digest the limestone, but you need a system very different from Earth’s.
Also it has to have three times the mass of gases in the atmosphere compared with Earth for the same atmospheric pressure. For an Earth pressure atmosphere the plants would have to produce three times as much oxygen to maintain breathable levels in the atmosphere.
Maybe this can all be sorted out. Super effiicent plants that produce lots of oxygen. Some kind of organism that produces greenhouse gases that are also human friendly, or space mirrors that are automatically self maintaining. Bots that mine water ice from the outer solar system and continually supply it to Mars without any need for supervision. Perhaps a thousand years from now, or even sooner, it might be a simple thing for us to do.
If it was like Star Trek that we could travel through the galaxy at “warp speed” and have millions of “Mars” planets at our disposal, maybe it wouldn’t be such a big deal to terraform Mars - or one of the many similar planets we know about. But as t is now, it’s the only planet we have like that.
And we have plenty of other ways to try similar experiments which don’t involve irreversibly transforming a planet. Such as using materials from the asteroids. The asteroids can be used to create habitats with living area equivalent to a thousand times the land area of Earth, an insight from the 1970s which is why they were so keen on such things as the O’Neil colonies and Stanford Torus.
We can complete such a habitat in decades, and if anything goes wrong we can scrub the atmosphere of harmful gases, or in worst case, scrap it and start again, build a new one from the materials of the old one. We can’t do that with planets..
For that reason I think we need to start with the Moon, asteroids etc, and leave our irreversible experiments with planets to a later date when we know much more than we do now.
You might be interested in my articles / kindle booklets on this topic:
I think the main issue here is that it is irreversible. Not so much the microbes as such. If you could “unterraform” Mars if you make a mistake, or if you could arrange so that half of Mars retains...
(more)I think the main issue here is that it is irreversible. Not so much the microbes as such. If you could “unterraform” Mars if you make a mistake, or if you could arrange so that half of Mars retains its native life in a wildlife habitat of some sort, then that would be different.
But Mars is one closely connected system with its global dust storms. If there is life there, or even if there are just habitats for life there, then introducing Earth microbes would eventually spread to them all.
This introduces a new geological era to Mars. For all future time, we can’t study Mars in its current form. This closes off our options for the future. From now on we can only proceed into a future with the Earth microbes on Mars. It’s a bit like our recent EU referendum, a decision by the UK people to leave the EU. There’s no going back on it once Article 50 is triggered.
Well, once the first microbes are introduced to Mars able to reproduce there and spread to its habitats, if we do that, and if there are habitats there, there is no going back at all. Not even decades or centuries, or millions of years later. We then have to continue forward into that future with Earth microbes on Mars.
So, I wouldn’t actually go so far as to say we can never terraform Mars. Rather I’d say that as a young species, we don’t know enough to make such decisions. We should keepour future options open until we have more wisdom than we do today. Right now we haven’t even discovered a single example of biology evolved independently of Earth.
If we are lucky, then Mars could be as interesting as an exoplanet in our own solar system. An exoplanet with life evolved independently - or an exoplanet with no life but habitats for life - both are just immensely interesting for biology and science, and we can’t know what we’d learn from it.
The nearest other planet resembling Mars is surely at the least light years away. If we had Star Trek like abilities to travel at warp speed through our galaxy and if we found that planets like Mars are common, that would be a very different situation. We might make different decisions in that case. But as it is now, I think we have to treat Mars as immensely precious until we know otherwise. It would be so tragic to mess things up there.
As for terraforming, I think there’s much to go wrong, and we shouldn’t treat Mars like a giant petri dish. There are plenty of other places to do these experiments. We can try doing it in the lunar caves, or in large Stanford Torus type habitats. They also may well go wrong too, I’d expect many problems. But you can build such a habitat on timescales of decades instead of thousands of years. If something goes wrong with the atmosphere, you can purge the atmosphere and start again, or scrub out problematical chemicals or microbes. With technology we have today there is no way we can do that with a planet.
So, I don’t think planets are the place to do our early experiments in large scale closed systems. We have to start smaller scale than that and learn in smaller places. Plus we can study exoplanets and learn from those too.
And we can study Mars, and we can do theoretical analysiss of the effects of changing the planet in various ways. Eventually maybe we decide to do something. But just as with our recent UK exit from the EU - that’s something that affects the entire world. Not just us but all future civilizations that arise on Earht for billions of years into the future. How do you know that your attempt at terraforming will be welcomed when it reaches completion thousands of years from now?
Even if there are no habitats for life on Mars at all right now, I still think we shouldn’t attempt to terraform it, but should start smaller first. There may be many ways it could go wrong, end up in states that are problematical for us and for all future generations.
So, the main thing here is that it’s an irreversible change that doesn’t just affect us, but all future civilizations that may arise on Earth for all future time. For now, I think we need to proceed in a way that keeps all future options open, for as long as we can.
Imagined Colours Of Future Mars - What Happens If We Treat A Planet As A Giant Petri Dish?
I think we should start with the Moon anyway and as we explore the Moon we can simultaneously explore Mars robotically, and make decisions later on once we have a much better understanding of the planet.
There’s so much focus on Mars also, but what about Mercury, the cloud tops of Venus, Jupiter’s Callisto, the asteroid belt etc? Why rush to Mars the planet most vulnerable to Earth microbes? If you introduce Earth microbes to the Moon, no problem, only contaminates the immediate area around your habitat. A few kilometers away the lunar surface will still be pristine. I think we need to start with places like that, where our impact on the celestial bodies we explore and study is more limited and especially, avoid large scale irreversible changes to planets, until we learn more.
See my Case For Moon First
The answer is that, enlightenment is not something you can achieve. If it was, then it would be produced and conditioned and could be lost, as you say you could become more or less enlightened or d...
(more)The answer is that, enlightenment is not something you can achieve. If it was, then it would be produced and conditioned and could be lost, as you say you could become more or less enlightened or de-enlightened.
“It is incorrect to think that Nirvāṇa is the natural result of the extinction of craving. Nirvāṇa is not the result of anything. If it would be a result, then it would be an effect produced by a cause. It would be saṃkhata ‘produced’ and ‘conditioned’. Nirvāṇa is neither cause nor effect. It is beyond cause and effect. Truth is not a result nor an effect. It is not produced like a mystic, spiritual, mental state, such as dhyāna or samādhi. TRUTH IS. NIRVĀṆA IS. The only thing you can do is to see it, to realize it. There is a path leading to the realization of Nirvāṇa. But Nirvāṇa is not the result of this path. You may get to the mountain along a path, but the mountain is not the result, not an effect of the path. You may see a light, but the light not the result of your eyesight.”
The Third Noble Truth - Walpola Rahula: What the Buddha Taught
“An Arahant after his death is often compared to a fire gone out when the supply of wood is over, or to the flame of a lamp gone out when the wick and oil are finished. Here it should be clearly and distinctly understood, without any confusion, that what is compared to a flame or a fire gone out is not Nirvāṇa, but the ‘being’ composed of the Five Aggregates who realized Nirvāṇa. This point has to be emphasized because many people, even some great scholars, have misunderstood and misinterpreted this smile as referring to Nirvāṇa. Nirvāṇa is never compared to a fire or a lamp gone out.”
It’s very hard to talk about enlightenment. You have to drop the idea of it as something you can possess or achieve as a state. But we don’t have any other way of thinking about things. If we could understand what it is to be enlightened we’d be enlightened already. Quoting from Walpola Rahula again:
“Nirvāṇa is beyond logic and reasoning (atakkāvacara). However much we may engage, often as a vain intellectual pastime, in highly speculative discussions regarding Nirvāṇa or Ultimate Truth or Reality, we shall never understand it that way. A child in the kindergarten should not quarrel about the theory of relativity. Instead, if he follows his studies patiently and diligently, one day he may understand it. Nirvāṇa is ‘to be realized by the wise within themselves’ (paccattaṃ veditabbo viññūhi). If we follow the Path patiently and with diligence, train and purify ourselves earnestly, and attain the necessary spiritual development, we may one day realize it within ourselves – without taxing ourselves with puzzling and high- sounding words.”
The different schools have many different ways of understanding enlightenment and talking about it. But they all share this, that it’s something you have to realize it for yourself.
I’m banned from mentioning the topic of the Buddhist four noble truths on wikipedia talk pages for six months. Don’t want to go into too much detail as this is not a Buddhist question. But basicall...
(more)I’m banned from mentioning the topic of the Buddhist four noble truths on wikipedia talk pages for six months. Don’t want to go into too much detail as this is not a Buddhist question. But basically the people currently editing the article ousted a previous editor who understood the topic well and had been working on the article for over a year in collaboration with the other editors there. They did that just by completely rewriting the article and ignoring his requests to revert the article and discuss the changes.
[UPDATE - BAN HAS EXPIRED] - but I don’t see much point in trying to return to the conversation there. Did a couple of comments but they weren’t warmly received :). Why continue and just upset the editors to no purpose as there is no way they want to hear what I had to say?
This new batch of editors think that the aim of Buddhists is to prevent ourselves from taking rebirth, which, they think, we aim to do by “stopping all karma” (??) so that we can’t take rebirth again. On the talk page the main editor expressed it to me as “the aim of Buddhists is to “get out of here””.
Some of you may think that is indeed the aim of Buddhists. So I’ll just briefly introduce a couple of quotes on the topic
Walpola Rahula - therevadhan scholar from Sri Lanka, perhaps the most famous Pali Scholar, expert in the earliest Buddhist sutras, put it, “TRUTH IS. NIRVĀṆA IS”
“It is incorrect to think that Nirvāṇa is the natural result of the extinction of craving. Nirvāṇa is not the result of anything. If it would be a result, then it would be an effect produced by a cause. It would be saṃkhata ‘produced’ and ‘conditioned’. Nirvāṇa is neither cause nor effect. It is beyond cause and effect. Truth is not a result nor an effect. It is not produced like a mystic, spiritual, mental state, such as dhyāna or samādhi. TRUTH IS. NIRVĀṆA IS. The only thing you can do is to see it, to realize it. There is a path leading to the realization of Nirvāṇa. But Nirvāṇa is not the result of this path. You may get to the mountain along a path, but the mountain is not the result, not an effect of the path. You may see a light, but the light not the result of your eyesight.”
The Third Noble Truth - Walpola Rahula: What the Buddha Taught
Buddhists aren’t teaching a way to achieve some kind of peace after you die and after everyone else dies. As Walpola Rahula put it again:
“In almost all religions the summum bonum can be attained only after death. But Nirvāṇa can be realized in this very life; it is not necessary to wait till you die to ‘attain’ it.”
As you may be able to see from those quotes, or if you have had teachings in the four noble truths from Buddhist teachers, they could hardly be more wrong!
So that’s one of the two main issues with the article.
Also if you go to the Four Noble Truths history section they say that the four noble truths, the central teaching of Buddhism, was missing from the original Pali canon: Four Noble Truths They just present this as the “view of scholars”.
This is actually one extreme in a complex scholarly debate. But they present it as the only view on the matter. If you go to the Pali Canon page you get a proper picture, you learn that there are three main views, of , Pāli Canon
“The views of scholars concerning the attribution of the Pali Canon can be grouped into three categories:
- Attribution to the Buddha himself
- Attribution to the period of pre-sectarian Buddhism [this is the period after Buddha and before Buddhism split into several main sects]
- Agnosticism”
That’s an accurate summary of the scholarly situation. But try to get the current main editors of the Four Noble Truths article to present these other two views in “their” article!
Anyway that will do for now, just to set the scene.
So, I am banned because I wrote too much on the talk page while trying to say to them what is wrong with the current version of the four noble truths article. I never did a single edit except to add one “citations needed” to it. And I wasn’t banned for expressing a point of view on the article, I was banned just for writing too much on the talk page :).
The way the discussion to ban me was carried out was quite extraordinary. It wandered on for pages and pages. They surely spent more pages discussing how to ban me than I spent trying to get them to fix the article. Banning discussions like that normally get sorted out within a week. But theirs went on and on. I logged out of wikipedia for a week and came back and it was still going on as they argued about how exactly they should ban me.
Topics covered were so wide ranging, that amongst other things they wanted to ban me for the heinous crimes of using the name of my very small sole trader software company “robertinventor” as a user name on wikipedia (it’s an internet handle I use everywhere online as it is seldom taken) and daring to use a Christian analogy on a Buddhist talk page. Those were quickly dropped, but gives the idea.
I did this image as a joke to lighten spirits for my facebook page while the ban discussion was in progress
Well it’s all over now. And I was getting nowhere in the conversations with the other editors anyway. So it hardly makes any difference that they have banned me.
But the rather amusing thing is, that after you get banned in this way - you can’t mention the discussion that lead to the ban in wikipedia on any talk page including other editors. I tried asking the editor who banned me questions but had to do it without mentioning the banned topic or the discussion that lead to the ban. It can’t be done :).
So, at present you have this major handicap, as a banned editor, unless you already know wikipedia so well you don’t need help - how can you appeal when you can’t ask for help without discussing your topic area on wikipedia? Not that I see much point in trying an appeal, it’s going to expire anyway in a few months and I don’t see much point in continuing the discussion anyway in the current circumstances. But it was a strange position to find oneself in.
However, as it so happens, then there’s a project on meta wikipedia to combat harrasment right now. I found out about it from a banner on wikipedia
As a result of this experience in wikipedia as well as others, I’ve made several proposals there, which have got some support. I don’t know if any of them will come to anything but it was nice to talk to others there who had been banned from wikipedia too in somewhat similar circumstances. It’s not going to make any difference to my case, which was settled according to the rules on wikipedia as they exist now, what they are. But maybe they will help others in the future.
So these are my various proposals there
I don’t think there is any realistic chance of fixing that article on Buddhism (and several other related ones on core teachings in Buddhism). But hopefully my experience has lead to some interesting suggestions for making wikipedia a bit more friendly in the future. Will see.
It also shows how some areas of wikipedia can be wildly inaccurate based on the preferences of particular groups of editors who can sometimes take over.
Generally wikipedia is pretty good. I rely on it a lot for astronomy and space science and space missions - though after this and several other experiences, I do go to the original citations if it is something important and do a bit of searching for myself on the topic area.,
BTW for accurate sources on the Four Noble Truths, take a look at my Buddhist sources on the Four Noble Truths. It must be one of the most written about topics in Buddhism, central teaching of the Buddha. But the links there can get you started hopefully. Well at least are a whole lot better than the current Wikipedia article.
For wikipedia editing, see How to edit wikipedia without getting into trouble by Robert Walker on Random things
Not right now, no. There is a theory from the 1970s which suggested that there could be an ice age headed our way in the next few thousand years, or sooner -, but that theory is no longer accepted....
(more)Not right now, no. There is a theory from the 1970s which suggested that there could be an ice age headed our way in the next few thousand years, or sooner -, but that theory is no longer accepted. Even without global warming, the next ice age is expected to be 50,000 years into the future. An Exceptionally Long Interglacial Ahead? There’s an idea that we might go into a mini ice age for 30 years as a result of the sun becoming a bit cooler than usual, but that’s just a small drop in temperature and it’s a prediction, not yet confirmed. In detail:
The 1970s theory was simply based on looking at the duration of previous interglacials, which usually last for 10,000 years. They just assumed ours would be the same duration as the previous ones. If so, with the last glacial period (popularly called an “ice age”) 12,000 years ago, then you’d think we are long overdue a new one. And that’s how they reasoned back then, see The Future of the World's Climate.
However back then they didn’t have any detailed theory, as the theory of Milankovitch cycles which is now accepted widely was only finally established as valid in the late 1970s through study of ice cores (though first put forward as a theory in the 1920s). The ice ages depend on interaction of many different cycles involving slight variations in the Earth’s tilt, how circular the orbit is (eccentricity) and the precession of the equinoxes. See Milankovitch Cycles and Glaciation
As a result, nowadays, based on a much better understanding of how it works, the scientists predict that ours would be a longer duration interglacial even without global warming, lasting about 50,000 years.
Then, there’s new research that suggests that the next ice age could be postponed from 50,000 to 100,000 years in the future due to the effects of the CO2. See: Fossil fuel burning 'postponing next ice age You can click through the link in that article to get to the nature paper itself complete under their sharing initiative.
In that paper, they say
" Using an ensemble of simulations generated by an Earth system model of intermediate complexity constrained by palaeoclimatic data, we suggest that glacial inception was narrowly missed before the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. The missed inception can be accounted for by the combined effect of relatively high late-Holocene CO2 concentrations and the low orbital eccentricity of the Earth7. Additionally, our analysis suggests that even in the absence of human perturbations no substantial build-up of ice sheets would occur within the next several thousand years and that the current interglacial would probably last for another 50,000 years."
So in other words yes, we were due to go into an ice age around the start of the industrial Revolution, but it's not just the CO2 that stopped it. The various cycles are complex with many factors interacting and their analysis suggests that this time around the interglacial would have lasted 50,000 years anyway.
Their crucial graph is this one on page 203 of the paper. The graph at the top shows the effects of different levels of CO2 now over the next 100,000 years. Notice that there's a significant difference between them, depending on the levels we reach in the near future, even 100,000 years from now. There is much less CO2 of course 100,000 years in the future, but you still see differences because the amount you have then if we get to 1000 gigatons this century is still double the amount you get if we don't go above 500 gigatons. Apparently even that small amount of CO2 is enough to be significant
Then there's another very different idea of a "mini ice age" which is what professor Zharkova predicts if I understand it right. That's similar to the Maunder Minimum when there were no sunspots and the sun was a bit cooler than usual with the Thames freezing over in London. It’s just a prediction and hypothesis, she’s not saying that the sun has started to cool down yet.
If we do get a mini ice age of that type - which depends on the sun not on Earth, then the global warming that we've had would offset it. But it''s quite a small effect, they say a reduction of average temperatures by 0.1 C, small compared with the global warming of 1 C. Of course local effects could be more than that, that's global average. Still, don’t expect ice sheets to start advancing. With all the CO2 in the atmosphere, it’s more like a short period of 30 years when maybe the Earth doesn’t warm up quite as much as it would otherwise.
You can read what Zharkova herself says about her theory and it’s relevance to climate change here: Is a Mini Ice Age Coming? 'Maunder Minimum' Spurs Controversy
See also There Probably Won't Be A “Mini Ice Age” In 15 Years
Well, nearly half the electorate voted against it, so they thought it was the wrong decision. Also, the majority in Scotland did, same also for London and Northern Ireland. It’s particularly striki...
(more)Well, nearly half the electorate voted against it, so they thought it was the wrong decision. Also, the majority in Scotland did, same also for London and Northern Ireland. It’s particularly striking if you plot it by region instead of by constituency.
Shows the pattern by region, higher level than constituency. There were some Remain constituencies in the Leave regions in England. And some Leave burroughs in London. Strikingly, in Scotland, every single constituency had a majority for Remain.
Also at least some of the leave voters are very dissatisfied with the outcome. Not just the Remain voters. Quoting from that article:
The anxiety – dubbed “Bregret” – emerged as the value of the pound tumbled and markets crashed, while some felt betrayed by Nigel Farage’s admission that a Vote Leave poster pledging to spend millions of pounds supposedly given to the EU on the NHS was a “mistake”."
In addition, some people voted Leave as a "protest vote" not expecting the UK to actually leave the EU. Others did vote wanting to leave but they didn't believe the predictions, such as a weaker pound.
Also the Remain vote was strongly supported by young people, while the older people tended to back Leave. Here is a graph from the BBC showing how the different age groups voted:
From: How the United Kingdom Voted on Thursday and Why. In this chart the A, B, C, D, E refer to the NRS class - AB refers to higher managerial, administrative or professional
This information is based on a survey of 12,369 people after they had voted.
As you see, 73% of those aged 18 to 24 voted Remain and the proportion of Leave votes increases steadily to the over 65s with 60% voting Leave. There's a much retweeted statistic that the turnout was only 36% for the younger age range (though an article in the New Statement comments that we don't actually have exact figures for this, which is projected data).
The Lord Ashcroft polls go into detail, the graph above comes from there. The tendencies were for those with a higher education to vote remain, especially those with a higher degree and those still in education, and for those who left school with no qualifications to vote to leave. Two thirds (67%) of those describing themselves as Asian voted to remain, as did three quarters (73%) of black voters, while White voters voted to remain by a small majority (53%). 58% of those describing themselves as Christian voted to leave; seven in ten Muslims voted to remain. "By large majorities, voters who saw multiculturalism, feminism, the Green movement, globalisation and immigration as forces for good voted to remain in the EU; those who saw them as a force for ill voted by even larger majorities to leave."
Then the Guardian website has a good page about how voting patterns varied depending on the cultural and age makeup of constituencies, so this is using the published data by constituencies. This shows similar tendencies.
So as well as regionally, also many particular groups of people thought we should remain.
Also, another study found that if 16 and 17 year olds had been given the vote, as for the Scottish referendum, the outcome would have been Remain. You can listen to the reactions of some of the leave voters expressing regret after the vote here.
Also, after it was over, some may have been taken aback by the consequences of the clear division in the voting patterns between Scotland and England (with the exception of London), which may well lead to break up of the UK. So it’s may be an England, Wales and Northern Ireland without Scotland that has to go it alone without the EU.
So, with the referendum now over, I think it’s quite possible that well over half the voters who voted in the referendum would now vote to Remain, and if you add the 16 and 17 year olds, then even more so. There don’t seem to be many Remain voters who have changed their mind towards Leave quite yet.
So, it’s possible in a democracy for a vote to carry even with a simple majority like this, and yet still have more than half the population not in favour of the final decision after the vote is over. That may be the situation here.
Still, it was a democratic decision, and this is part of how democracy works. There isn’t any way to solve it completely. But there is this idea,that perhaps we could add in, for future referendums, the possibility of taking the vote again if a situation like this arises in the future.
I don’t think we can do a second referendum retrospectively because the voters voted for this referendum on the understanding that it was a once only vote. To have a second referendum now would be a case of Remain voters wanting to change the result of a democratic decision. Similarly if the vote was Remain, and if Nigel Farage had asked for a second referendum as he said he would, in the case of a 48 : 52 vote the other way around, again I think it would not be acceptable that way either.
But if the rule was in place before the referendum, you could do it. Would such a rule be useful? And if so how could it be phrased so it actually works? I look into that a bit here in my discussion
There’s a petition for such a rule, which was actually put forward by a Brexit suporter before the referendum. It’s getting lots of votes now, mainly from Remain voters or Leave regret votes I’d imagine. It’s currently at 3.662937 million signatures as of 11.09 am, Monday 27th June (here in the UK). That's 10.9 % of the total of 33.551983 million total votes cast in the EU referendum, and even more impressive, it's equivalent to 22.7% of the 16.141241 million Remain votes cast and 21% of the 17.410742 million Leave votes cast.
That confirms that there is a lot of dissatisfaction with the result.
However, the vote was a democratic vote, properly conducted, and with a commitment to go through with Article 50 if the vote came out as leave, based on a simple majority, even by a single vote. Though this quote is taken a bit out of context, I think it is relevant here. Winston Churchill once said:
"Of this I am quite sure, that if we open a quarrel between the past and the present, we shall find that we have lost the future"
It was also one of the highest turnouts for a long time apart from the Scottish referendum, at 72.2%.
I will be very interested in the debate though, if the petition is discussed in the House of Commons.
There could be other challenges to the result however. We may have a general election within six months, possibly as soon as this autumn. If so, the Liberal Democrat party is going to stand on a platform with a pledge to reverse the Brexit. We can have a new general election if two thirds of MPs vote for it, or if there is a non confidence vote with a simple majority and an alternative government can't be formed within 14 days. On the news here in the UK they are talking about it as if this may be quite likely.
After all our prime minister David Cameron has resigned, and a new conservative leader would not have the mandate of the people. There’s nothing improper about that, in normal circumstances, but the current government has a very narrow majority in the house and if just a small number of its own MPs start to vote against it on key decisions as a result of the referendum result, it could make governing difficult. Also,there are challenges to Jeremy Corbyn, with 29 members of the shadow cabinet resigning, though he hasn’t said he will resign and was originally elected as leader of the cabinet with a huge mandate. In the circumstances, a new general election seems quite likely.
Nicola Sturgeon also says that MSPs at Holyrood in Scotland could refuse Brexit consent.
See also my article: Can A New Rule Trigger A Second EU Referendum? Petition Signatures Over 10% Of Total Votes Cast
UPDATE
Suggestion by Kevin Carothers as a comment- for future referendums, you could have a “best of three” for very important decisions like this.
To make that into a concrete detailed suggeston - for important decisions like the EU referendum, you could have a trigger, say if it is less than a ten point lead (majority less than 55%), then you have a second referendum, soon after, automatically, with no paid campaigning in between, though they get to see the results of the first one, and maybe a day in between to digest the results. So can be reported on and interviews etc, but no paid for campaigning or adverts.
If those two referendums go opposite ways you have a third referendum as a decider. All done very quickly, say all in one week. You'd expect high turnout for the subsequent referendums in that situation, maybe higher than the first.
That seems like a quite simple easy to implement solution, and it gets rid of all the complexities of a minimum turnout. If it was a close result and went to a second referendum, I think you could expect turnout to be high for the second one, and if that went the other way, even higher for the third, if it was a decision that people cared about.
DIRECT DEMOCRACY
Though referendums are rare in most political systems, they are very common in Switzerland's unusual system of "Direct Democracy". Anyone who can get 50,000 people to sign a petition can trigger a referendum. And referendums are frequent.
Not just a building, even a working clock :).
The Long Now foundations 10,000 year clock is designed to last for 10,000 years.
(more)Quote from this first video "I'm very optimistic about the future. I'm n...
Not just a building, even a working clock :).
The Long Now foundations 10,000 year clock is designed to last for 10,000 years.
Quote from this first video "I'm very optimistic about the future. I'm not optimistic because I think our problems are small, I'm optimistic because i think our capacity to deal with problems are great"
It ticks once a year.
“There is a Clock ringing deep inside a mountain. It is a huge Clock, hundreds of feet tall, designed to tick for 10,000 years. Every once in a while the bells of this buried Clock play a melody. Each time the chimes ring, it’s a melody the Clock has never played before. The Clock’s chimes have been programmed to not repeat themselves for 10,000 years. Most times the Clock rings when a visitor has wound it, but the Clock hoards energy from a different source and occasionally it will ring itself when no one is around to hear it. It’s anyone’s guess how many beautiful songs will never be heard over the Clock’s 10 millennial lifespan.”
It’s powered by sunlight.
“Behind the main chamber’s dials the stairs continue up to the outside summit of the mountain. The shaft above Clock continues to the surface, where its opening to the daylight is capped with a cupola of sapphire glass. This is the only part of the clock visible from outside, on the mountain peak. In this outdoor cupola sits the thermal-difference device to power the timekeeping, and also a solar synchronizer. Every sunny noon, a prism directs sunlight down the shaft and slightly heats up this ingenious mechanical device. That synchronizing signal is transmitted by rods further down to the Clock’s innards, where the imperceptible variations in the length of the day as the earth wobbles on its axis will be compensated so that the Clock can keep its noon on true solar noon. In that way the Clock is self-adjusting, and keeps good time over the centuries.”
It uses ceramic bearings, which can run without lubrication.
For more details, see Introduction - 10,000 Year Clock - The Long Now
It’s based on several misunderstandings I think. First, Buddhism in Tibet originated in India which has practices such as laying the dead out to be eaten by vultures, hacking dead bodies into piece...
(more)It’s based on several misunderstandings I think. First, Buddhism in Tibet originated in India which has practices such as laying the dead out to be eaten by vultures, hacking dead bodies into pieces to feed to the birds. It also had practices of meditators who meditate in charnel grounds and used skin and bones from the dead bodies as meditation aids to remind themselves of impermanence.
This may seem very extraordinary to us and also to the Chinese. But to people from Tibet and Mongolia, it is just part of their culture. Feeding bodies to birds and animals was also common place in ancient India at the time of the Buddha. For the Tibetan practice, Vultures and charnel grounds – East and West
These charnel grounds were common enough in ancient India for the Pali canon to describe impermanence meditations based on them.
"And, further, O bhikkhus, if a bhikkhu, in whatever way, sees, whilst it is being eaten by crows, hawks, vultures, dogs, jackals or by different kinds of worms, a body that had been thrown into the charnel ground, he thinks of his own body thus: 'This body of mine, too, is of the same nature as that body, is going to be like that body, and has not got past the condition of becoming like that body.'
The Satipatthana Sutta and Its Commentary
"Or again, as if he were to see a corpse cast away in a charnel ground, picked at by crows, vultures, & hawks, by dogs, hyenas, & various other creatures... a skeleton smeared with flesh & blood, connected with tendons... a fleshless skeleton smeared with blood, connected with tendons... a skeleton without flesh or blood, connected with tendons... bones detached from their tendons, scattered in all directions — here a hand bone, there a foot bone, here a shin bone, there a thigh bone, here a hip bone, there a back bone, here a rib, there a breast bone, here a shoulder bone, there a neck bone, here a jaw bone, there a tooth, here a skull... the bones whitened, somewhat like the color of shells... piled up, more than a year old... decomposed into a powder: He applies it to this very body, 'This body, too: Such is its nature, such is its future, such its unavoidable fate.'
(these are amongst the oldest Buddhist scriptures, written down around 2000 years ago, before then they were passed down orally like the Vedas and some scholars think date back to the time of the Buddha himself) t
It is no longer common in India.
Details for modern India: Modern Hindus use cremation rather than “sky burial”. Sky burial is still however a practice of some contemporary religious sects in India, such as the Parsis (who are zaroastrians, only 100,000 world wide,50,000 in Mumbai), though for different reasons. Cultivating Vultures to Restore a Mumbai Ritual. The practice of meditating in charnel grounds is adopted by one sect of Hindus, the Hindu Aghoris in India. But they use partial cremation instead of sky burial.
The Chinese don’t have charnel grounds like this, as far as I know, even in their Buddhist traditions. Chinese Buddhism comes from India via a different route, traditionally Chan Buddhism was brought to China by Bodhidharma.
The reason Buddhists in Tibet do this is as a strong reminder of impermanence. The images shared in the other posts here are to remind the meditator that just as others have died, so they too will die. Chinese Buddhism of course has a strong element of impermanence too, but not the same traditions. The Zen Buddhist might meditate and see the changes in nature, the passing clouds, running water, and so on and realize that their body also changes. But not so much this meditation using dead bodies and bones and skin as a very direct reminder that they too will die.
But this does go right back to the Buddha and the Pali Canon, even the Therevadhan Buddhists do meditations on impermanence of the body, on how we grow old, die, become sick etc. It’s a very important part of Buddhist teaching. Not as a way to make yourself upset or depressed. Just as a way to relate very directly to the way things are, to not hide anything from yourself of the reality of your situation and the situation of everyone else. By doing that, you can see through it, learn to relate to things as they are.
Then another misunderstanding is that the Dalai Lama represents some kind of an elite government. A few things to be aware of here:
A Sami indigenous northern European family in Norway around 1900. Many Tibetans in old Tibet had a similar way of life. They were nomads andmoved with their reindeer and lived in tents, similarly many Tibetans in old Tibet were nomads, moved with their yaks from one place to another, had no permanent homes, and lived in tents. Saami Family 1900
I’m not saying old Tibet was perfect, it certainly wasn’t and there were many things that needed to be changed. But neither was it evil, as the Chinese seem to think.
I think the main thing here is that old Tibet as a country of nomads, and also with the Buddhist religion, which especially in its Tibetan form is so pervasive and influencing how everything was done - that the Chinese had many natural misunderstandings of what was going on.
I think it probably didn’t help that the Chinese for the most part didn’t understand Tibetan, and that the Chinese pictographic script is not used in Tibet. Although the Tibetan language is closely related to Chinese, I understand, it is not close enough for Chinese to understand spoken Tibetan. And China is unified by its pictographs which lets Chinese with different languages to communicate in written form. But they couldn’t read the Tibetan script either, and the Tibetans couldn’t read Chinese.
The iconography of some of the Tankas (paintings often in hanging scroll form) also can be confusing if you don’t have it explained to you, also you may get similar things in vivid poetic form in the writings. The Tankas may show things like living people being torn apart. But again this may be a vivid depiction of impermanence.You need to have the images explained before you can come to conclusions about what they mean for Tibetan Buddhists.
In other cases, it’s a vivid imagery which is to do with recognizing how we can get stuck in habitual tendencies and sometimes need to break out of them, that you need to be open to fresh points of views. It’s the awakened mind, your own awakened mind that does the rending here, it’s like - sometimes ideas just have to be left behind. Some irrevocable thing happens and you need to move on. Things can happen like that, accidents, events that are irreversible. You may have resisted but it happens, and once it is done, you can’t undo it. When that happens, you have to relate to the new situation, you have to recognize that the past has changed through the present into the future.
Again this is something you get rather more in Tibetan Buddhism than in other forms of Buddhism. The idea is there everywhere, but the most vivid depictions of it in the iconography are mainly Tibetan.
So there were many opportunities for misunderstandings to arise. And these have been propagated to this day. I think the way forward has to be to somehow foster more mutual understanding between the Chinese and the Tibetans.
For as long as the Chinese think of Tibetan Buddhism as a form of serfdom, and think of the aim of the Tibetans in exile to resume this, how can we make progress? You can see from the way Tibetans behave in exile that they don’t have slaves or serfs, they don’t kill people for their skins and bones as the Chinese seem to think they used to do in Tibet (this is surely a misunderstanding of the process of hacking up dead bodies to feed to the birds), and so on.
Can we somehow find a way to move forward from these views about old Tibet? To realize that there have been misunderstandings, that there were many things in old Tibet that did need to be changed, but it no longer exists, it’s the past, and that many of these things are not true even of old Tibet and not true today?
Short answer, nothing much for most of us:
Short answer, nothing much for most of us:
HOW OFTEN DO WE GET A MAGNETIC REVERSAL?
First, full magnetic reversals, where the field flips and stays flipped, are rare, roughly every 200,000 years but sometimes with much longer gaps between them. The last one was Brunhes–Matuyama reversal 781,000 years ago.
But sometimes the magnetic field reverses temporarily, and then reverts to its original state again. One geologically recent example, the Laschamp event 41,000 years ago. This happened surprisingly quickly, around a century for the polarity shift, unlike a full reversal that takes thousands of years for it to reverse.
It was a complete reversal, not just a change in position of the pole. While reversed, the field strength was only 5% of our normal magnetic field, but it had North and South interchanged. It lasted for 440 years. Of that time period, the two reversals took up 250 years.
An extremely brief reversal of the geomagnetic field, climate variability and a super volcano
It’s not much different though whether it just flips for a short time or flips for a long time.
In this diagram the yellow dots track the motion of the north "virtual geomagnetic pole"
For a couple of science news stories about this research: An extremely brief reversal of the geomagnetic field, climate variability and a super volcano , Ice age polarity reversal was global event: Extremely brief reversal of geomagnetic field, climate variability, and super volcano
It remained reversed for a total of 450 years and the two polarity reversals took 250 years of that. That's very rapid on geological timescales.
For the detailed scientific paper: Dynamics of the Laschamp geomagnetic excursion from Black Sea sediments. This diagram is discussed on page 65.
So, it does seem it is something that can happen. Not just in a few years. But over a couple of centuries.
There have been other magnetic field "excursions" as these are called. Gothenburg magnetic reversal 11,500 years ago and Mono Lake magnetic reversal of 23,000 years ago .
This is a simulation of a magnetic reversal on supercomputer from 2010, just to give an idea of how it works, it's not just the magnetic poles moving, like turning around, the magnetic field would get complex in the middle of the transition. It would get pretty hard to use a compass, I'd imagine, need to rely on up to date maps of the direction of the magnetic field in whatever part of the world you were sailing in.
This is what it's like in the middle of a reversal:
We are nowhere near anything like that at present.
CURRENT SITUATION, NO SIGN OF A REVERSAL
The South dip pole lies at a latitude of 64.28 degrees South, outside Antarctica, in the open ocean, also outside the Antarctic circle.
While the North magnetic pole is far closer to the pole, almost directly at it right now:
As you see the N. magnetic pole is continuing to move closer to the geometric N. pole and the S. magnetic pole is continuing to move away from the geometric S. pole.
In these diagrams, the blue is the geomagnetic pole - treats the Earth as if it were a dipole magnet. So the geomagnetic poles are diametrically opposite each other. The red dots are the dip poles - the point on the surface where your compass needle would point directly downwards or upwards.
More about it here: Magnetic Poles
There's also evidence that the magnetic field is getting weaker. But it’s been much stronger than usual for a while and so far it is not particularly low, just declining towards rather ordinary values
What it will do next is anybody’s guess. If you extrapolate that graph, it reaches 0 so a reversal after 1500 years. But there is no reason to suppose that it’s doing that. Even if it gets very weak, often you get “excursions” where the field gets weak, but then just restores itself in the same direction as before.
So there is no reason to suppose it will reverse based on the magnetic field strength so far. The magnetic poles are continually moving anyway and at present they are close to the poles and the magnetic field strength is normal.
But it could happen. And we can get an idea of the effects, from studies of the last time it happened.
EFFECTS OF THE REVERSAL LAST TIME IT HAPPENED
There were increased levels of radiation, with increased levels of Beryllium 10 and carbon 14. See https://www.sciencedaily.com/rel...
(note, in case of confusion: the paper doesn’t say that the reversal caused the supervolcano eruption, it’s just that their research allowed them to research both events as they were close together in time)
We remain protected by the atmosphere, which is roughly equivalent in radiation shielding to ten meters thickness of water. So we don't need to be concerned we'll all die, like astronauts caught in a solar storm outside the shelter of the Earth's magnetic field. That can't happen.
Human beings have managed fine through many previous reversals. Anatomically modern humans evolved around 200,000 years ago, archaic humans 500,000 years ago, and earlier hominids have been around for millions of years, see human evolution
The weaker magnetic field during a reversal wouldn’t make much difference for the faster particles in cosmic radiation as these fast particles go straight through the Earth’s magnetic field anyway. And some particles are even accelerated by the magneticfield. The Earth’s atmosphere protects us from this, again shielding equivalent to ten meters thickness of water.
Theoretically the increased radiation levels from the slower particles could increase cloud levels (because radiation is supposed to help with cloud formation, similarly to the way they produce trails in cloud chambers) which could cool the Earth. The authors of that paper couldn't find a clear correlation of weather with the cosmic ray flux during the Laschamp event however (just summarizing what they way in their paper).
More generally, there’s no proven link between magnetic reversals and extinctions.
“During a transition the magnetic field at the surface of the Earth decreases to about 10% of its current value. If the geomagnetic field is a shield against energetic particles of solar or cosmic origin then biospheric effects can be expected. We review the early speculations on the problem and discuss in more detail its current status. We conclude that no clear picture of a geomagnetic link, a causal relation between secular magnetic field variations and the evolution of life on our planet can be drawn.”
In more detail: in the summary conclusion section on page 157 of the earlier paper:The Sun, geomagnetic polarity transitions, and possible biospheric effects: review and illustrating model (2009) they conclude that the main effect would be generation of a natural hole in the ozone layer and this would stress the populations of phytoplankton in the sea, but that so far none of the recent studies have yet been conclusive enough to decide if this has cataclysmic effects on the Earth’s ecosystem.
- “A major atmospheric effect of polarity transitions is most probably the generation of a natural ozone hole due to enhanced SPE activity. This ozone hole is associated with a strong increase of erythemal weighted surface UV-B flux. .
- “The increase of erythemal weighted surface UV-B flux represents a clear stress on aquatic ecosystems such as phytoplankton populations. Using a simplified model of enhanced UV-B stress on such a population indicates a complex, nonlinear response of the population.
… “We conclude that many further studies on details of the suggested process chain and actual analyses of geologic proxies are necessary before a possible connection following the processes discussed can be confirmed. All recent studies do not yet allow one to decide whether a polarity transition is a cataclysm to the Earth system or not. “
This is an earlier 1980 paper with the same conclusion: Relationship between biological extinctions and geomagnetic reversals
More citations in the wikipedia article here: Geomagnetic reversal
SOLAR STORMS
A really major solar storm will break through our magnetic field whatever, so that’s not particularly to do with magnetic pole reversal.
There's no risk to humans. But there is a risk to the electricity transmission network and to satellites mainly. Ordinary strong solar flares aren't really a problem, there is enough warning and the electricity companies and so on can take measures to protect themselves. Impacts of Strong Solar Flares. We get those every so often, every decade or so.
But then - there's the possibility of a really big solar flare. There was a big solar flare back in Solar storm of 1859. Known as the "Carrington event" after an English astronomer who was observing the sun, saw some huge sunspots, and spotted an intense white flash from the sunspot group. The auroras turned night to day, people could read the newspaper by the auroras. Gold minors in the Rocky Mountains woke up and ate breakfast at 1 a.m. thinking it was sunrise on a cloudy day.
Telegraphs stopped working - and in the USA, some operators disconnected the batteries and found they could send telegrams just using the induced electricity from the storm. See Severe Space Weather Events Telegraph operators also saw sparks leaping from their equipment, some big enough to cause fires. What If the Biggest Solar Storm on Record Happened Today?
So - at the time that was just a curiosity and hardly made any difference to anyone except the telegraph operators and people woken up early by the bright auroras. But if we had a storm like that now, the effects could be huge. We have never had a flare anything like that big since then.
The main effects are:
Basically the power companies need to install monster surge protectors. Solar Storms: What You Need to Ask Your Power Company
And another approach involving adding extra resistors - this amounted to a total cost of the order of $100, million, for an event that could cost trillions (between 0.6 and 2.4 trillion dollars to replace damaged transformers after sch an event according to the Lloyds report) and mean outages of electricity for between 6 days and years. An Inexpensive Fix to "Prevent Armageddon" But Congress didn't pass the bill that was proposed to spend this $100 million on this fix.
I'm not sure of the latest on this. There's a lot about this online but it can be a bit hard to sift the accurate sites from the ones that are a bit over the top and sensationalist.
Blackouts certainly can happen, this is something that actually did happen in Quebec in 1989 You are most vulnerable in the higher latitudes so the North of the US would be the ones who lose power, and the higher latitude countries in Europe. Apparently also more vulnerable if the power lines run above igneous rocks.
"Power systems in areas of igneous rock (gray) are the most vulnerable to the effects of intense geomagnetic activity because the high resistance of the igneous rock encourages geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) to flow in the power transmission lines situated above the rock. "
The Day the Sun Brought Darkness
And - is something you can do something about - ways of protecting the transformers in power grids seem the most important thing to focus on. There's a useful recent discussion here at physicsstackexchange:
Can a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) cause a blackout on Earth and why?
Where one of the answers says that the power network has various unintended protections built in, mainly that if one transformer blows out, the rest in the grid tend to trip rather than blow out too. And that in a study that he and some colleagues did, they found the power grid may be less vulnerable than previously predicted because of these reasons, but satellites that orbit at geostationary orbit, also the middle level orbit GPS satellites may be more vulnerable than previously expected, with many of them, if on the sun side of the Earth (between it's magnetic field and the sun) likely to be destroyed.
"So the most recent idea is that our satellites are very vulnerable but our power grids may not be as vulnerable as we originally thought (though, all of these issues are incredibly difficult to model and predict so take my comments with a grain of salt)."
- see the conversation here: Can a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) cause a blackout on Earth and why?
Any other links on this?
(This is a shortened version of Robert Walker's answer to How often do solar storms occur? Can they hit earth or cause harm to use?)
NO DIFFERENCE IN NUMBERS OF PARTICLES THAT GET DOWN TO GROUND LEVEL
Solar storm particles are too weak to get through the atmosphere at all. Cosmic "rays" actually particles (the name is confusing as they aren't photons or radiation and travel at less than light speed) - they can, but the atmosphere is equivalent to 10 meters thickness of water so only the most energetic can get all the way through.
The loss of magnetic field won't make any difference there as it’s our atmosphere that protects us most (though it would make a big difference to astronauts in the ISS). It increases the number of particles that hit the upper atmosphere, whch is why it can influence the ozone layer and perhaps cloud formation. It also makes magnetic field differences to the surface which is how you can get the effects on long cables such as electricity transmission cables. But it doesn't increase the number of particles that get down to ground level in the atmosphere.
AURORAS
You'd see auroras right down to the equator.
Here is a stunning video of the Aurora Borealis from the ISS in 2012.
And a compilation of various videos of it here
and Aurora Borealis: Why is Antarctic Auroral Oval always off center over the South Pole?
This is identical to my answer to What will happen when the magnetic poles shift?
Are you talking about the “Golden Urn” ceremony? If so, it was only used to select the eleventh Dalai Lama according to the current Dalai Lama.
(more)“The Golden Urn system was actually used only in the c...
Are you talking about the “Golden Urn” ceremony? If so, it was only used to select the eleventh Dalai Lama according to the current Dalai Lama.
“The Golden Urn system was actually used only in the cases of the Eleventh and Twelfth Dalai Lamas. However, the Twelfth Dalai Lama had already been recognized before the procedure was employed. Therefore, there has only been one occasion when a Dalai Lama was recognized by using this method. Likewise, among the reincarnations of the Panchen Lama, apart from the Eighth and the Ninth, there have been no instances of this method being employed. This system was imposed by the Manchus, but Tibetans had no faith in it because it lacked any spiritual quality. However, if it were to be used honestly, it seems that we could consider it as similar to the manner of divination employing the dough-ball method (zen tak).”
The Office of His Holiness The Dalai Lama
So, such a ceremony could be used as a form of divination, but the Tibetans had no faith in it and it was only used once in this way, other times they pretended to have used it, but had selected the Dalai Lama beforehand.
More recently the Chinese used it for the Panchen Lama (not the Dalai Lama), but the Dalai Lama had already chosen a different child as the next Panchen Lama and the Dalai Lama’s choice disappeared 21 years ago, aged six and has never been seen since.China urged to release Panchen Lama after 20 years - BBC News
So anyway in the past, yes seems they generally have been successful unless you count the eleventh Dalai Lama but that could have been a successful divination. But with the Panchen Lama, then no, the system has lead to the most recent of the Tibetan choices for the Panchen Lama disappearing at the age of six.
The current Dalai Lama has said he won’t take rebirth in China, I think understandably so in the circumstances, and more recently, has said that he may also be the last of the Dalai Lamas. He says it depends on the situation when he dies and the will of the Tibetan people.
This has lead to the rather strange situation of the Chinese government telling the Dalai Lama that he has to take rebirth, and that his rebirth has to be in China and abide by Chinese regulations about rebirths, and the Karmapa saying “In my view, it is only the Dalai Lama himself who should decide about his future reincarnation. So I am confident and have full trust in his decision. “
It's up to Dalai Lama whether he'll be reborn, Buddhist leader says
It’s amusing, in a sad kind of a way, since the members of the Chinese government, as far as I know, usually don’t believe in rebirth. (The emperors of China before this present government also didn’t believe in rebirth as they were Confucian).
Whether or not he takes rebirth as the next Dalai Lama, there’s nothing to stop him taking rebirth in some other form. The dispute is about whether he will take rebirth as a reognized Dalai Lama and continue the institution of the Dalai Lama.
He jokes that it might be a good time to end the institution of the Dalai Lama with a relatively popular Dalai Lama and the next one might be stupid or do something that disgraces the institution. The Buddhist ideas of rebirth don’t mean at all that successive rebirths are the “same personality”. They often have very different inclinations and personalities.For instance the sixth Dalai Lama was a poet, writing inspiring poems that are much loved by Tibetans to this day, never became a fully ordained monk and instead gave up the monk’s robes, and had many girlfriends in his short life. While the present Dalai Lama has a strong inclination to study, passed his exams in Buddhist scholarship at a young age with flying colours, impressing all the teachers who were judging him, and is of course a celebate monk and is also very interested in Western science, amongst other things..
More about it here, quote from Chonpel Tsering, the Dalai Lama's representative in northern Europe.:
"I genuinely don't know [whether he will reincarnate]. Tibetan Buddhism believes that everybody is reborn, but not everybody can choose how and when they are reborn.
"The lamas - the senior religious figures - are able to determine firstly whether they are reborn, and if they are going to be reborn, where they'll be reborn.
"The present carnation, the present Dalai Lama, can decide. The rebirth is his choice.
"First, he is going to consult the Tibetan people and others that follow Tibetan Buddhism to find out whether they think that there should be a 15th Dalai Lama.
"If the decision is, 'Yes,' then he will set out clear instructions about the process, so that there is no ambiguity, so that the reincarnation process isn't manipulated or misused by anybody for their own personal or political interests.
"The Chinese and the Communist Party have set up systems where reincarnations such as his holiness the Dalai Lama have to be recognised and approved by the Communist Party.
"Maybe [they] feel that if they pick their own 15th Dalai Lama, somehow that authority will transfer on to the [one] lama they have picked.
"His holiness has said that the 15th would be born outside of Tibet, outside of China, because this 15th Dalai Lama would have to continue the work of the present Dalai Lama.
"If there is no genuine religious freedom inside Tibet, then it's very hard for him to continue that work."
HOW DOES THE CHOICE TO TAKE REBIRTH TAKE, AS UNDERSTOOD BY TIBETAN BUDDHISTS?
This is just a crude explanation, which hopefully will help readers who haven’t come across this before.
The idea is that some of the Lamas such as the Dalai Lama can direct their next rebirth. As they die, then most of us, so the Tibetan Buddhists believe, enter into a Bardo state.
(Therevadhan Buddhists have a different idea of how rebirth happens - they think the end of one life is the first moment of the next. Tibetan Buddhists think this is true in some rare cases but that most of us enter the Bardo for a while before we take rebirth, and that sometimes you can be in the Bardo for up to several weeks).
Once in the Bardo, you have lost your previous bodily form and experience extremely bright lights,loud sounds, and most get terrified at that point and rush away and try to hide in a corner, and so take rebirth again. But the idea is that there are some who are able to relate to what’s happening, not necessarily Buddhas, who can direct their next rebirth. They then take rebirth where they feel they are needed or can continue their work.
So that’s where that idea comes from that the Dalai Lama because he feels he wouldn’t be able to continue his work within China because of the restrictions on religious freedom, would choose to take rebirth somewhere outside of China.
It’s not the young child who makes that choice. It’s the previous Dalai Lama as he dies. Before he dies he often will leave some instructions about how to find his next rebirth. Also sometimes there are indications in dreams to help them find him. Then the new child is tested in various ways to make sure he really is the next Dalai Lama, as a check against mistakes in the process.
That’s why it’s quite strange for someone who believes in rebirth, that the Chinese government would feel they can regulate this. How can they legislate for the decisions someone makes as they die in the Bardo state? They can’t even choose whether the Dalai Lama turns left or right as he leaves the entrance to whatever place he stays for the night. So how could they decide what he chooses to do in the Bardo state?
(Added this in response to a question in the comments)
NO POLITICAL ROLE FOR THE DALAI LAMA
The Dalai Lama divested himself of all political roles in the “government in exile” in 2012.
“He also changed the constitution and made the final implementation of a change that no lama will be head of state in any future government that Tibetans approve of.”
The Dalai Lama Will Not Return to Lead Tibet (He Has Something Better in Mind)
So there is no need at all for the Chinese to be concerned about the Dalai Lama or any of his future rebirths becoming a head of state of the government in exile as Dalai Lama. Not only that, no other reincarnate Lama can either.
I’ll focus on analogue sites for Mars habitability for the search for life on Mars as that’s a special interest of mine. For temperature and aridity, our best analogues are the Atacama desert core ...
(more)I’ll focus on analogue sites for Mars habitability for the search for life on Mars as that’s a special interest of mine. For temperature and aridity, our best analogues are the Atacama desert core and the McMurdo dry valleys in Antarctica.
Researchers scout out field sites in Antarctica's Beacon Valley, one of the most Mars-like places on Earth. Image credit: NASA
It’s obviously not at all exact, but the closest we have in some respects.
Don Juan pond in Antarctica has the saltiest naturally occurring permanent water on Earth, useful for studying the limits of range of habitability of water on Earth / Mars.
The bacteria from Blood falls
metabolize sulfate and ferric ions. It’s a good analogue for Martian glaciers, if any of them have subsurface water, e.g. through hydrothermal heating.
Rio Tinto, Spain
This is the largest known sulfide deposit in the world, the Iberian Pyrite Belt
It may be a good analogue of some subsurface environments on Mars
Many of the extremophiles that live in these deposits are thought to survive independently of the sun. It's rich in iron and sulfur minerals such as
Jarosite on quartz Potassium iron sulfate Arabia District, Pershing County, Nevada 2779
The fumaroles of mount Erebus might be an analogue of Mars - if Mars had ice fumaroles they would be hard to spot from orbit and could be a way for it to be geologically active yet not spotted from orbit.
Also an analogue of past sites on Mars, Home Plate on Mars, explored by Spirit is thought to be an example of an ancient fumarole on Mars.
is a possible analogue for sulfur based ecosystems underground on Mars if they exist.
Our basalt lava tube caves are an analogue of Mars lava tube caves.
Then you have the magnesium sulfate lakes, “soda lakes”
Opportunity found evidence for magnesium sulfates on Mars (one form of it is epsomite, or "Epsom salts"), in 2004. Curiosity has detected calcium sulfates on Mars Orbital maps also suggest that hydrated sulfates may be common on Mars
Spotted Lake in British Columbia in Canada. Its sulfate concentrations are amongst the highest in the world. Every summer the water evaporated to form this pattern of interconnected brine pools separated by salt crusts
Then subglacial lakes like lake Vostok may give analogues of habitats below the surface of the Mars ice sheets if they exist.
If the ice sheets are deep enough on Mars, depth of 4–6 kilometers, the ice is so insulating that the base will melt through normal geothermal heating, not of a hot spot, just of the crust itself. However the martian north polar ice caps is probably only 3.4 to 4.2 km in thickness. It might not be deep enough for the ice to melt - but if the ice melted for some other reasons, then it could remain stable as a liquid lake at any depth over 900 meters.
For more details and the citations, as well as several other Earth analogues for the present day habitability of Mars, see my: Places on Mars to Look for Microbes, Lichens, ... also available on kindle as Places on Mars to look for Microbes, Lichens, ... Salty Seeps, Melt Water Under Clear Polar Ice, Ice Fumaroles, Dune Bioreactors, ...: Where early Mars lifeforms could survive to the present day
The situation at present is:
The situation at present is:
I think myself that if anywhere can be colonized at all, it’s the Moon, far closer, easier, safer, much easier to export anything valuable found or created there to Earth or to supply spaceships in LEO or interplanetary spaceships, and it’s got many advantages over Mars if you look into it closely. But I think it’s not clear that anywhere in space is worth colonizing, when it is far easier to setup home in the most harsh deserts on Earth, e.g. the Mongolian desert or some such, than anywhere in space. Vast areas of Earth’s land surface is uninhabited, and is far more habitable than anywhere in space.
But I think that it is possible that we have bases and settlements in space in the near future. Needs to be dong something there that is valuable for Earth, including scientific discovery like Antarctic bases, also possibly commercial mining too, or space solar power, and perhaps colonization longer term into the future and I htink the Moon is by far the best place to start here.
See my Case For Moon First, you might be surprised:
Case For Moon First, free online version, also available on kindle as Case For Moon First: Gateway to Entire Solar System - Open Ended Exploration, Planetary Protection at its Heart
We have a group to discuss the Case for Moon first on facebook too: Case for Moon, facebook
To add to the other answers, then it’s actually quite a challenge to land on Europa. I’m not at all sure we should be doing it now even.
First, the surface is unknown at the scale of meters, most of...
(more)To add to the other answers, then it’s actually quite a challenge to land on Europa. I’m not at all sure we should be doing it now even.
First, the surface is unknown at the scale of meters, most of it. One theory for instance is that parts of the surface might be covered in closely spaced vertical “ice blades” or “ice knives” which would make a landing there hard to achieve. On Earth these blades form quickly. On Europa they would take millions of years to form, but it’s the same basic process. As Daniel Hobley said: "Light coming in at a high angle will illuminate the sides of the blades, causing them to retreat away,"
These are called Penitentes. See Penitentes: Peculiar Spikey Snow Formation in the Andes
This video shows how they form on Earth and decline, time lapse:
Here is a photo from the European Southern Observatory site high in the Atacama desert:
Planetary Analogue, see also their Icy Penitents by Moonlight on Chajnantor, and Iconic, Conical Licancabur Watches Over Chajnantor
ICE KNIVES ON EUROPA
On Europa, if they exist, they can potentially be meter scale or higher, and with no atmosphere, the conditions on Europa might well be ideal for their formation. Our missions to Europa so far haven’t taken high enough resolution photos to see them. Ice blades threaten Europa landing - BBC News
They wouldn’t be the result of ice or snow subliming into an atmosphere, obviously. It’s a slightly different process. Instead they’d be the result of the sunlight causing the ice to sublime to water vapour in a vacuum at very low temperatures. Also they would form slowly over much longer timescales, of millions of years.
The surface of Europa is about 50 million years old, so when asking if penitentes can form on Europa, one of the main questions is, how much can the ice there erode under the influence of sunlight in 50 million years? The answer to this question is extremely sensitive to the peak temperatures on Europa, to the extent that twenty degrees can make a difference between formations that are meter scale and ones that are on the scale of millimeters.
In the paper: HOW ROUGH IS THE SURFACE OF EUROPA AT LANDER SCALE? Hobley et al produce this table
So, for a surface temperature of 132 K (about -150 C) it loses about 5.66 meters over the average age of the surface of 50 million years. For a temperature of 128 °K (-154 °C) it loses 1.28 meters in 50 million years, tailing off to 1 cm at 116 °K (-166 °C), and only millimeters at 114 °K
So this is very sensitive to the peak surface temperatures of Europa. Also, the surface is eroded by sputtering from the Jupiter radiation and from bolide (meteorite) impacts. That would counteract the effects of the ice blade formation at temperatures of 126 downwards. They conclude in the paper that the knives could be from one meter to 10 centimeters in height, probably restricted to within 15 or 20 degrees of the equator.
However Europa also has “true polar wander” by which the entire crust moves over the subsurface ocean. This could reduce the size of the blades but also move the ice blades away from the equatorial regions.
UPTURNED ICEBERGS - FOR REGIONS LIKE THERA MACULA - AMONGST THE MOST INTERESTING REGIONS ON EUROPA
Other issues could include a frozen landscape consisting mainly of upturned icebergs. According to some ideas, then hot plumes of melted water rise from the deep subsurface sea and eventually reach the surface and produce these irregular landscapes as icebergs form on the freezing surface and then turn over.
One of the most interesting regions, thought to be most likely to have thin ice over liquid water by the “thin icers” is the Thera Macula
This might be a region of overturned icebergs with, perhaps, liquid water still present only a short distance below the surface. Most of these chaos regions are raised, which suggests the ice below them that lead to their formation has frozen. But Therea Macula is actually a dip in the surface of Europa which may be a sign that it has the denser melted water still beneath it. See Is Europa's ice thin or thick? At chaos terrain, it's both!
POSSIBILITY OF LIQUID WATER CLOSE TO THE SURFACE OR BREAKING THROUGH
So there could also be liquid water close to the surface. Geysers are another possibility. So again there may be a small chance of our lander crashing through thin ice or a soft surface, especially if we land it on the most interesting regions such as Thera Macula. Or it could fall into a crevasse and be unable to communicate.
I know the plan is to orbit Europa for a while before the lander gets there, but what if the orbiter doesn’t find any suitable spot for the design of lander, and decides a different design of lander is needed, or no lander at all? Maybe the lander has to land somewhere uninteresting, or they have to hold back from landing at all for planetary protection reasons?
CAN WE STERILIZE A SPACECRAFT 100%
Then the other problem is that we don’t know how to sterilize a spacecraft 100%. Or more accurately, we can sterilize a spacecraft completely, but the methods that do this, such as prolonged heat, or ionizing radiation, also destroy the electronics so it won’t work any more. That includes of course the ionizing effect of Jupiter’s radiation - although the surface of Europa is riddled with ionizing radiation that would quickly kill any human, any spacecraft there has to survive this, at least up to the landing, which would mean that it is protected sufficiently that microbes could survive also.
If there are some microbes on the lander, and they survive to the landing, then it might impact into liquid, or create a liquid area due to a crash on Europa which might be deep enough to shield microbes so they can reproduce there. Or microbial spores brought to Europa with the lander could eventually in the future over thousands or years find their way into the ocean.
KEEPING SAFE - SAMPLE GEYSERS
I think the best solution here is to focus on sampling any geysers instead. We can already do that with a mission to Enceladus. This is less known but it also may have life.
Geysers on Enceladus (moon of Saturn). A spacecraft could fly through these geysers (Cassini has done so many times now). It could do a detailed analysis and even a life search as according to some theories, the water in these geysers was in Enceladus’ ocean as recently as a few months before they are ejected into space. Europa may have geysers also but with its larger gravity they may not go so high into space, so may be harder to spot.
For these reasons I think with Europa we should focus on an orbiter or flybys first. I think we shouldn’t design a lander at all, but we should put instruments on the orbiter that have the dual capability, as for Cassini, to analyse any plumes found on Europa since that seems a distinct possibility.
FAST FOLLOW UP LANDERS
By the 2030s when the mission gets there, then our technology may be so advanced we can send a follow up orbiter or lander within months or a year or two. In any case I think we simply should not risk a lander at this stage due to planetary protection issues unless we can sterilize it 100%, or somehow can prove that there is no significant possibility of it irreversibly introducing Earth microbes to Europa. Even a 1 in 10,000 chance of contaminating Europa with Earth life, I think would be too high, given what we may be risking there, some unique discoveries that we could never do anywhere else. E.g. it could be some early form of life, not as far evolved as DNA or evolved in a different direction, which might be very vulnerable to DNA based life. And it’s probably impossible to do an accurate assessment of how likely it is that we could irreversibly introduce Earth life to Europa by mistake, we just don’t know enough yet about Europa or about exobiology with no examples yet of any known exobiology to base our decisions on.
Again by the 2030s we may have the technology to sterilize a spacecraft 100% without destroying the electronics. I hope so!
MISSION TO ENCELADUS GEYSERS - AND PERHAPS IDENTICAL MISSION TO EUROPA
Meanwhile one thing we can do right away is to send a mission to Enceladus to analyse its geysers close up, and it would be reasonable I think to send life detection instruments on that mission too. Instruments that would help with analysing whateer is in the particles, able to detect complex organics, and also able to find indications of life too if present.
If funding permitted, perhaps we could also send an identical orbiter geyser fly through mission to Europa “on spec” just in case we find geysers there, to save time. I think that would be less risky than a lander, no danger of crashing, and likely to add to our understanding of Europa even if it has no geysers, by examining the region around Europa just as Cassini did for Rhea etc.
There’s some evidence already of possible water plumes from Europa - though it’s a one off observation by Hubble which hasn’t been repeated. It might have just been a meteorite impact. If it is evidence of geysers, that could be very exciting for search for life on Europa. Water Plumes on Europa: What Lies Beneath?
In any case as I said, I think we should equip any Europa orbiter with similar instruments to Cassini which would help with analysing any dust or ice particles or gas around Europa with the capability of detecting complex organics, which may be in them whether or not Europa has life, and I think we should add chirality detection at a minimum. There’d surely be some dust or gas to analyse even if there are no plumes.
SAMPLE RETURN - WHY QUARANTINE DOESN’T WORK
Later we may do a sample return to Earth. But I think we can do a lot in situ - even just plumes, the composition probably varies depending on where you fly through them, and also on the position in the orbit, may also depend on conditions in the deep ocean, maybe it has the equivalent of algae blooms down there from time to time.And we have many instruments now we can send to do in situ searches, miniaturized “lab on a chip” that just ten years ago would fill an entire laboratory which also have minimal power requirements too.
As for returning it to Earth, if we return a sample likely to contain life or with some chance of life, I think we should return to above GEO, furthest in delta v away from both the Earth or Moon and study it telerobotically from Earth until we are sure what is in it and what precautions are needed if any. I don't think it makes much sense economically, legally, or that we can even do it safely, to try to build a facility to study all conceivable forms of exobiology on the surface of Earth quite yet when we don't yet know of a single example of exobiology outside of Earth.,
Quarantine just doesn't work, see my Case For Moon First - why quarantine doesn’t work - this is for Mars, but the same would apply for life returned from anywhere. There is no way we'd abandon an astronaut permanently in the ISS if they were exposed to Europa samples, I don't think it is ethically or legally possible to do that even if they consented.
A quarantine period only works if you know what you are quarantining against and how long you need to do the quarantine for. And the risks are not just the effects on humans but effects on many other creatures, plants etc as well as long term effects on ecosystems. We can't test that in space just by exposing lifeforms to it. I think there is no alternative to really knowing what is in the sample before you decide whether you can expose humans and other lifeforms to it and what precautions to take. Which means you have to study it somewhere isolated from Earth's lifeforms first and I think you'd need stupendously reliable methods to do that on Earth, far better to do it telerobotically in orbit.
So, I think that’s the way ahead myself, sample the plumes in situ. Return samples eventually but to above GEO. And if we do a lander, it needs to be sterilized sufficiently for biologically reversible exploration. We must not introduce Earth life irreversibly to Europa or Enceladus, in my view. If it’s likely to encounter liquid water, or create a liquid water habitat through impact, hard to see how anything short of 100% sterilization would be sufficient. We need some way to sterilize all the life from a lander while keeping the electronics intact. One promising approach may be to use supercritical CO2 snow in combination with other methods.I think that may be possible in the future but we can’t do it quite yet.
ON HUYGENS AND TITAN
Sorry forgot to cover that - though it’s covered in the other answers. Huygens was an easy experiment if going to Saturn's system anyway. With Titan’s thick atmosphere they could use aerobraking. Also the Titan’s surface is so cold Earth life can’t survive there so there were almost no planetary protection issues. (Titan may have a deep subsurface liquid water ocean but if so, then there doesn’t seem to be much communication with the surface).
And actually there is a remote possibility of life in Titan’s oceans though it would be very exotic for us. First, because of the extreme cold, it would surely rely on chemical reactions that run much faster at those temperatures than the ones in our cells would do - otherwise the life there would be very sluggish. There’d be evolutionary pressure to use faster chemical reactions.
Also it would have the cells kind of “inside out” with non polar molecules facing the methane / ethane oceans, because those are non polar liquids, instead of the usual arrangement. Indeed it might be made of a small polar molecule like acrylonitrile sticking together to form a non polar membrane in the non polar solvent of methane
Normal cell walls are arranged to be polar (having regions of positive and negative charge both inside and outside to attract the water) like this:
The tail repels water (hydrophobic) so naturally meets together in the middle of the cell wall. For details of this idea that life on Titan would need to use a non polar membrane, see Is There a Kraken in Kraken Mare? What Kind of Life Would We Find on Titan? - Universe Today, and Possible oxygen free cell structure made of organic nitrogen compounds that could function at the low temperatures of Titan's ocean.
Glint of sunlight on the lake region around the northern pole of Titan.
Cassini did make some measurements that Chris McKay interpreted as possibly a sign of life processes on Titan, though he listed several other possibilities that may be more likely: Alien Life on Titan? Hang on Just a Minute… - Universe Today
However Hugens was not designed to search for life. Maybe some future spacecraft to Titan’s oceans will take off from where it began?
See also Prebiotic Chemistry on Titan?
SAFE AND EASY LANDINGS FOR EUROPA - “ICE BREAKING” INSTEAD OF “AEROBRAKING”
Huygens was an easy experiment yes, for Titan. We can’t do aerobraking on Europa.
However you could do equally easy experiments for Europa - one idea is a penetrator, using what we could call "ice breaking" to slow it down. I'm not a fan of that myself for planetary protection reasons unless the penetrator can be sterlized 100%.
PLANETARY PROTECTION FRIENDLY VERSION - ARTIFICIAL GEYSER - BERND DACHWALD’S IDEA
However there’s a planetary protection friendly version of it. You could use two spacecraft - a dumb penetrator consisting of just a metal slug, easily sterilized. This sends a plume of ice into space. You could use two “dumb penetrators” with the second one closely following the first for more effect.
In effect, you are creating an artificial geyser here. This would be followed by a low flying orbiter to capture the sample for analysis.
That would have minimal planetary protection issues if the dumb penetrators can be 100% sterile - e.g. just lumps of metal heated beforehand to temperatures where no Earth microbes could survive or otherwise 100% sterilized before impact. This is an idea Bernd Dachwald (head of the German IceMole project) once suggested to me in conversation, which I think is an interesting one.
CHIPSATS FOR EUROPA - COULD THEY BE 100% STERILIZED?
Another interesting idea, here is an old mission idea to send “chipsats” to Europa’s surface, each one rather “dumb” but lots of them, each one consists of just a few sensors on a flat chip. Some would fail but enough would get through, and they would be able to survive impacts that a larger more complex lander couldn’t.
That sounds like a kind of a lander that is so minimal, perhaps it could be 100% sterilized by supercritical CO2 snow or something similar? That’s a technique that can remove all the organics from the surface of an electronics chip without damaging the chip. It’s been shown to work with USB drives. So though it might be tricky to scale up to a complete spacecraft, I wonder if it is good enough to 100% sterilize chipsats? It would have to be 100% reliable.
CAN WE ACHIEVE 100% STERILE ELECTRONICS FOR A EUROPA LANDER?
There’s no in principle reason to prevent 100% sterile electronics. You just have to find some process that electronics can withstand and life can’t. If you heat metal to hundreds of degrees C for instance, no life will survive and the result will be 100% sterile. The problem is that this will destroy the spacecraft electronics too. So can we find a way to sterilize it of Earth microbes without destroying the delicate equipment? That’s the big question here.
Also all this might be far easier to do with a chipsat than with a large conventional spacecraft.
First one method being explored by the European Space Agency is Deep cleaning with carbon dioxide. and Science Daily article about it.
Could you remove all traces of organics from the exterior in this way? And - can you also keep exterior and interior separate so there is no chance of leaking contamination from inside the mole?
HIGH TEMPERATURE STERILIZATION
Then also, if you can make the whole thing able to withstand high temperatures, you can just heat it up to a high enough temperature to sterilize all life.
The main issue with sterilizing modern spacecraft is that many instruments are quite delicate, also they can go out of alignment,so even the sterilization temperatures used for Viking of 111 °C for 40 hours is too much for them.
But there are electronic circuits now designed to operate at up to 200°C . High-Temperature Electronics
And there are other developments that should permit temperatures of 200°C upwards :).High-Temperature Electronics Operate at 300 degrees C | EE Times and Designing for extreme temperatures
There’s an economic incentive for developing these electronics, as they are useful in oil wells and motor cars.
I’ve never seen this suggested for a way to keep Europa landers sterile, but it sounds as if it should work!
Back to the drawing board probably for a lot of the designs to make the whole thing uses chips and solders etc that work up to high enough temperatures for 100% sterilization. But it seems like it may be possible! Thanks to Adeel Khan for the suggestion
Is this right? Is it possible to achieve 100% sterilization by heating electronics that’s capable of resisting temperatures of up to 300 C. I wonder if anyone working in the field of spacecraft sterilization has investigated this, either experimentally or in theory. Or is there some other way to achieve 100% sterile electronics such as the CO2 snow approach?
I think we need to look into that myself before we consider sending any probes to habitats that may include liquid water habitable to Earth life. Except of course for the plume flybys. They are safe so long as the ice particles they collect can’t dislodge microbe spores and return them to the liquid water in the subsurface oceans. That sounds likely to be for all practical purposes, zero risk though you’d need to examine it carefully of course.
MULTIPLE METHODS AT ONCE
Perhaps for the best results both can be used one after the other. High temperature to make sure there is nothing viable. Then CO2 snow to remove the organics as far as possible. Heat it up again before it is released from the orbiter for a final precaution to make sure.
Especially for electronics in an impactor / penetrator as that would have to withstand high g force and perhaps high temperatures too, so it would need to use specially hardened electronics. And it needs to be hardened for the ionizing radiation for Europa as well so you are hardly talking about “off the shelf” electronics here.
A RATHER MORE FAR OUT IDEA - 3D PRINTER ON EUROPA PLUS RAW MATERIALS FOR SOME OF THE COMPONENTS
Another idea, just for fun for now - but: land a sterile 3D printer + some raw material feedstock for it, also sterile. The surface would be high vacuum, ideal for electronics. First thing it does is to 3D print a shelter for itself or dig below the surface for protection from the cosmic radiation. Then it sets about printing out whatever you need, including a Europa submarine from the sterile components you supplied it with. If it is a nanoscale printer it can do circuit boards as well. So all you need to do is to send it some sterile chips to attach to those circuit boards, and other hard to print out components pre-sterilized. Most of the rest it does itself.
This is a bit far future perhaps.But perhaps some element of 3D printing could help for an idea of partial in situ construction of devices for helping to study Europa in a sterile way? Especially small chipsat type devices. Sterile electronics plus 3D printing of some extra components to help with mobility or sampling or some such.
IF WE CAN’T ACHIEVE 100% STERILE LANDERS FOR EUROPA
If we can’t do it, I think we simply should not send a lander or submarine to Europa until we can, and should not risk introducing Earth microbes to a habitable environment on Europa.
It is just risking too much to do that. Not just for us, not just for the mission that goes to Europa right now, but for our descendants and indeed all future civilizations on Earth also. It would be just tragic to find some interesting form of exobiology on Europa only to know that we have seeded Europa with microbes that will eventully make it extinct.
It could be very vulnerable to Earth life. The example I like best there is the idea of some primitive early life, for instance RNA based, or even an RNA ocean or autopoetic cells. If Europa was like that, then introduced Earth microbes in a globally connected ocean through exponential growth would surely do short work of converting it all to DNA based life.
WHY NOT JUST SEND EARTH LIFE THERE (MORE DETAIL)?
Because then we won't be able to find out about the life that is already there, if there is any - or pre-biotic or non biotic chemistry - or whatever there is there right now. Especially since our life could make it extinct. About half of Earth's biological history in terms of gene complexity is unknown to us. We just have no idea how the early organic chemicals developed into lifeforms as complex as the simplest microbes. Lot's of sketched out suggestions but no answers and it is way beyond any attempt to simulate in a laboratory.
Well one likely thing to find in the Europa ocean, if life is common, is some early form of life. Maybe RNA based life. Maybe just an RNA ocean. Or maybe autopoetic cells. Or some primitive lifeform that reproduces, sort of, but not nearly as accurately as DNA life does. Or perhaps it's RNA based using ribozymes in the place of rhibozomes, everything done in RNA. And that's just a few examples based on what might have happened in our own planet's past. Europa life may well not be related to Earth life at all. In the entire history of the solar system, at most a handful of rocks may have made it from Earth to Europa. So it could be something else as well.
As those examples show, it could be very vulnerable. An RNA ocean say, or RNA only lifeform could perhaps become extinct after just a few years of exponential growth after the first contamination by Earth life throughout the entire ocean, especially if it is all connected and its ocean has food sources for the life to use. And however quickly or slowly it happens, there is no way we could reverse something like that once it got started. It would be the worst possible anticlimax to all our searches for life in our solar system, to know that Europa was such a biologically fascinating place, until the first probes from Earth landed there, and is no longer like that.
Until we know what's there, I think we have to treat every potentially habitable planet or moon or other habitat in our solar system as if it was the only one of its type in the solar system. Because a lifeform that evolves in Europa's ocean may well not evolve in Enceladus, or Ceres or on Mars or whatever place you study next. It could be our only opportunity for light years in every direction, to study such a lifeform.
As for experiments in Earth based life in space - we can do closed system habitats to try that out anywhere. For instance the Moon may have vast caves kilometers in diameter, so maybe we do it there. Or in free flying space habitats. There's enough material in the asteroid belt alone to create habitats with a total land area a thousand times that of Earth. There may be many opportunities to do that. We don't need to have as our first priority to turn everything into the closest possible approximation to Earth we can imagine, especially a very poor imitation of it, an ocean covered in kilometers of ice with the harsh environment of Jupiter's radiation on the surface, and too far from the sun for most photosynthetic life to be practical and not at all in its oceans (except for life that uses the heat radiation from hydrothermal vents for photosynthesis).
And meanwhile constructed habitats from asteroid materials can be designed with whatever environment you like, tropical gardens if you like, depending how much sunlight you reflect into it using space mirrors or solar collectors, or simulate conditions on Europa or Mars or other places in our solar system if that's your aim. Or you could simulate some the conditions on an interesting exoplanet. You can use spinning habitats with artificial gravity for whatever level of gravity you want, too.
That's looking forward a bit there - but only decades, centuries at most. You could build a Stanford Torus habitat within a decade or two with the funding and political will to do so even with present day technology. If we want to explore setting up habitats with Earth life in it outside of Earth, I think things like that would be the way to go - starting on a much smaller scale first probably. You could start with small exovivaria in LEO or on the Moon, and experiments with closed system recycling.
While there’s no way we can duplicate the billions of years of Europa’s history and the vast oceans larger than Earth’s oceans. If we mess it up, then the nearest “Europa” analogue may be light years away. And even then, chances are that if Europa and some Europa analogue both have life, even then most likely it has its own unique lifeforms, probably not even the same informational polymer in the place of whatever Europa has - not at all likely that it has the same lifeforms or proto life that evolved on Europa.
SO WHY DID THEY SEND A LANDER TO TITAN INSTEAD OF EUROPA- WRAP UP?
I think it might be partly that they were sending a spacecraft to the Saturn system anyway. In the case of the Jupiter system, then it’s much harder to visit Europa for more than a short time because of the ionizing radiation. Still you could do a penetrator with a fast flyby and that would work much like Huygens. It could communicate back to Earth during the flight to Europa and if it survived the landing, do some experiments and report back during its design life whatever it is.
But it would have many more planetary protection issues to work through than a Titan mission. I think myself best to wait for the orbiter mission first before we decide what to do next. We might well find plumes as for Europa and that would make it really easy to sample it’s ocean with a low flyby or orbiter and then we might not need a lander at all for the first missions there.
SEE ALSO
See also my "Super Positive" Outcomes For Search For Life In Hidden Extra Terrestrial Oceans Of Europa And Enceladus
You might be interested in the facebook group: Search for ExtraTerrestrial Life - Europa & Enceladus + Subsurface Oceans
See also my As Philae Awakes - Where Might Life Hide In Our Solar System?
EXPANDED VERSION OF THIS ANSWER
I’ve done a longer version of this answer which also looks at the Hubble plume observations and the Europa lander / flyby mission ideas here:
Hubble Spots Europa Geysers Again - How They Did It - And What Next? Flyby? Lander?
Yes in a way. There’s the idea of a world system. It’s not really like our modern ideas as back then many thought the Earth was flat. Some Buddhists have thought this right through to the present d...
(more)Yes in a way. There’s the idea of a world system. It’s not really like our modern ideas as back then many thought the Earth was flat. Some Buddhists have thought this right through to the present day, or at least, last century. There’s also the idea of the whole universe destroyed and recreated. Not by any external deity - rather it’s part of the teaching on impermanence - that even the entire universe is Saṅkhāra, conditioned, dependent on causes and eventually will decay and be gone on immense timescales. So there’s the idea of previous worlds and solar systems like that too, and even previous entire universes or cosmoses.
TRADITIONAL BUDDHIST COSMOLOGY WITH CYCLES OF CREATION AND DESTRUCTION
But they had the idea that regularly the entire world system gets destroyed, sometimes by water, sometimes by fire, sometimes by winds, or earthquakes.
This however is on immensely long timescales, not even trillions of years. The idea of a kalpa - a timescale that is really hard to imagine at all. It’s not like Christian ideas of Armageddon.
IDEA OF A THOUSAND BUDDHAS IN THIS WORLD SYSTEM
Indeed, Buddhists have the idea that the historical Buddha was the fourth of a thousand Buddhas (different accounts here in different traditions). With each Buddha the teachings eventually fade away and then there is a long gap before the next Buddha arises. Based on that there must be many thousands of years between each Buddha.
So traditional Buddhist cosmology would say our world system has been around for a long time, and will be around for even longer into the future before it is destroyed. During that time there will be many smaller disasters but complete destruction is more than trillions of years into the future.
BUDDHA TAUGHT WITHIN THE COSMOLOGY OF HIS DAY
I’ve just learnt that in the Vedas world systems are sometimes described as spheres floating in air above an ocean of water. The Vedas are very ancient, thousands of years old, preserved by memorization word for word. So perhaps Buddha was living in a culture with ideas of spherical planets, though not quite like the modern ideas, but I don’t know of sutras that address this.
However, as I understand it, the very early sutras don’t have that much about cosmology. Especially in the earliest sutras, Buddha tends to just not answer questions about cosmology.
This is one of the few sutras, where he talks about a future with one sun, then two suns, then eventually seven suns, it’s got lots of problems astronomically if you think of it as literal truth but if you think of it as saying that even our entire Earth, it’s ecosystems and the Earth itself is impermanence, then there is a lot of truth in that. And it does give some ideas about what happens when a universe is destroyed and a new one is formed. It doesn’t go into a lot of detail though.
Here is Bikkhu Sujato reading from this sutra and discussing it:
The later sutras of the Mahayana schools, the Avidhamma, do have a cosmology, but their’s is a “flat earth” cosmology. Ours is one of four great world systems surrounding Mount Meru and our sky is blue because that’s the light reflected off the southern side of Mount Meru which is made of the precious stone lapis-lazuli. It’s fine as mythology but doesn’t really match our physical world well.
There is a real mountain that seems connected with the Mount Meru mythology, and that’s Mount Kailas which is a place of pilgrimage for several Indian religions and a place of blessings for the Tibetans:
Mount Kailash with Jiu Gonpa (`Sparrow Monastery`) in the foreground.
It’s north of India and though it’s not at all the largest mountain even in its region, its unusual four sided pyramid shape, and isolated position make it seem much higher, and the ancient Indian ideas of Mount Meru may be based on it, and it’s still seen as connected with Mount Meru.
“To the earliest Buddhists, Mt. Kailash was special because of its geographical placement and its extraordinary beauty and grandeur. Its perceived characteristics are sometimes used as a metaphor for the highest spiritual values. To have attained enlightenment was metaphorically described as having “touched great Neru's peak.” (M.I,338). The mountain's immovability and equanimity were also seen as traits worthy of emulation. However, other characteristics the mountain possessed were considered less admirable. Legend said that it gave off a golden radiance that made all the animals living around it, noble and ignoble, appear to be the same. In other words, it lacked discrimination (avisesakāra) and the ability to distinguish (navibhajati) between skilful and unskilful, good and bad, foolishness and wisdom. In the Jatakas this is pointed out as one of the mountain's blemishes (Ja,III,247; V,425).”
“In later centuries Mt. Kailash came to be seen as the abode of bodhisattvas, gods and demigods. Later still in Tibetan Buddhism, a pilgrimage to the mountain was believed to have the power to purify the most negative kamma and if walked around 108 times, to lead to complete liberation. Like early Buddhism, the gentle ascetic faith of Jainism has always revered Mt. Kailash without attributing it with any particular salvic power. The Jains revere Kailash as the centre of the Earth and the place where their first Tirthankara, the sage Rishabha, attained enlightenment. Jain cosmological charts and paintings always show Mt. Kailash in the centre of the Earth”
More about the cosmology of the Abidharma here: The Science of Chinese Buddhism. Following this cosmology, Tibetans even into the twentieth century would think of our world as flat, just because their sutras say so. Heinrich Harrer talks about his conversations with the Tibetans trying to persuade them that the Earth is round.
But, following a path of discovery and openness to truth, there was no reason for them to continue to hold this belief after they found out about modern science, yet, the idea is a useful image in a poetic sense. A bit like Blake’s poetry, describing imagery that you don’t have to take literally but it has a poetic significance that you might not get without those images.
Buddha didn’t teach to advance physical sciences and cosmology, he just used the ideas around at his time. And in Buddhism we don’t have the idea of “revealed truth”. Rather we are encouraged to find things out for ourselves. If new discoveries contradict Buddhist teaching, and you can see that these new things are true, there is no doubt, you go with the new discoveries.
PROBLEM WITH IDEA OF A GOD CREATING THE WORLD - WHAT DOES THAT EXPLAIN?
Sometimes Buddhists will raise an issue with the idea of God creating the world. They ask, who created God? Or was he self created? Or has he always existed, and if so what lead him to create the world and how did he come into being?
It’s just the idea of a creator God that’s the issue here. If there was such a being, he or she would be unconditioned, not the result of causes. Nyanaponika Thera, one of the first Europeans to become a Bhikkhu, born in Germany in 1901, ordained in Sri Lanka in 1931, wrote this: Buddhism and the God-idea which has some interesting reflections on this, about how Buddhists also recognize the mystic states that in theistic religions are often seen as evidence for God or a connection to God..
He writes
“The psychological facts underlying those religious experiences are accepted by the Buddhist and well-known to him; but he carefully distinguishes the experiences themselves from the theological interpretations imposed upon them. After rising from deep meditative absorption (jhana), the Buddhist meditator is advised to view the physical and mental factors constituting his experience in the light of the three characteristics of all conditioned existence: impermanency, liability to suffering, and absence of an abiding ego or eternal substance. This is done primarily in order to utilize the meditative purity and strength of consciousness for the highest purpose: liberating insight. But this procedure also has a very important side-effect which concerns us here: the meditator will not be overwhelmed by any uncontrolled emotions and thoughts evoked by his singular experience, and will thus be able to avoid interpretations of that experience not warranted by the facts.”
“Hence a Buddhist meditator, while benefiting by the refinement of consciousness he has achieved, will be able to see these meditative experiences for what they are; and he will further know that they are without any abiding substance that could be attributed to a deity manifesting itself to the mind. Therefore, the Buddhist's conclusion must be that the highest mystic states do not provide evidence for the existence of a personal God or an impersonal godhead.”
”Buddhism has sometimes been called an atheistic teaching, either in an approving sense by freethinkers and rationalists, or in a derogatory sense by people of theistic persuasion. Only in one way can Buddhism be described as atheistic, namely, in so far as it denies the existence of an eternal, omnipotent God or godhead who is the creator and ordainer of the world. The word "atheism," however, like the word "godless," frequently carries a number of disparaging overtones or implications, which in no way apply to the Buddha's teaching..””
Trungpa Rinpoche puts it a bit differently, not so much denying any idea of a diety at all, but just that it is irrelevant to the Buddhist path:
“One of the big steps in the Buddha’s development was his realization that there is no reason we should believe in or expect anything greater than the basic inspiration that exists in us already. This is a nontheistic tradition: the Buddha gave up relying on any kind of divine principle that would descend on him and solve his problems. So taking refuge in the Buddha in no way means regarding him as a god. He was simply a person who practiced, worked, studied, and experienced things personally. With that in mind, taking refuge in the Buddha amounts to renouncing misconceptions about divine existence. Since we possess what is known as buddhanature, enlightened intelligence, we don’t have to borrow somebody else’s glory. We are not all that helpless. We have our own resources already. A hierarchy of divine principles is irrelevant. It is very much up to us. Our individuality has produced our own world. The whole situation is very personal.”
How To Become a Buddhist by Taking Refuge by Chögyam Trungpa Rinpoche
PATH OF VERIFIABLE TRUTHS
If you are following the path of the Buddha, it’s a path where you look for truths that you can see and verify for yourself.
Buddha taught that there are many things like that, and that it’s a distraction that can lead you into confusion and suffering, to try to solve questions, which we can’t answer for ourselves. In other religious paths such questions are solved by using revealed truth. But his path is one where you don’t rely on divine revealed truth to solve such questions either.
This is not to say anything against the paths in other religions that do rely on revealed truth. But for a Buddhist following the path of the Buddha, it’s an unanswerable question, how the universe began, or if it began or has just been here forever in some form.
We could only solve such questions if Buddha gave the answers to us as a revealed truth as in “This is the truth, I know because I am Buddha, so you must believe it”, or “This is the truth because some ancient sage or a deity has said so and you need to follow what they say”. But that wasn’t his way.
MODERN COSMOLOGICAL IDEAS
There are modern cosmological ideas where there were cycles of “universes” - universe only in the sense it is everything there is for the beings within it. Our Big Bang could be the result of the death of a previous universe, in some theories. Those would fit very well with the basic idea behind those traditional Buddhist cosmologies - of course not the flat Earth etc, but the idea that the entire universe gets destroyed and recreated. Which is a natural outcome from the observation that everything is impermanent on the much shorter timescales that we usually encounter in our daily lives. Extrapolating that to the largest space and time scales, you then come up with this idea that the entire universe also surely can’t be a permanent thing - how could it? If so it is likely to fall apart at some point, and then a new universe be born.
So, yes the basic ideas of a Big Bang do fit quite well with Buddhist cosmology, as well as could be expected given that nearly everyone, or possibly everyone in the world at that time thought the Earth was flat. Even the Greeks didn’t come up with the idea of a spherical Earth until around the fifth century BC, around the time of Buddha. Spherical Earth
But the early Buddhist cosmology didn’t fit modern Big Bang theory in detail. The main thing they had was this idea that without revealed truth, that we can find out truths for ourselves. So saying the Earth is spherical, and orbits the sun, and that the Big Bang happened at such and such a time billions of years ago etc - that’s just part of natural development and discovery and is not at all a problem for Buddhists.
BUDDHA’S SILENCE
Also, Buddha taught by silence, remaining silent when asked to answer these unanswerable questions. He gave an example of someone shot by an arrow, that you could spend forever trying to figure out what type of person shot it, the type of arrow, where it was made etc. Or you can just pluck it out. That’s in the Cula-Malunkyovada Sutta: The Shorter Instructions to Malunkya
In the conclusion to this sutra, he says
“"And why are they undeclared by me? Because they are not connected with the goal, are not fundamental to the holy life. They do not lead to disenchantment, dispassion, cessation, calming, direct knowledge, self-awakening, Unbinding. That's why they are undeclared by me.”
“"And what is declared by me? 'This is stress,' is declared by me. 'This is the origination of stress,' is declared by me. 'This is the cessation of stress,' is declared by me. 'This is the path of practice leading to the cessation of stress,' is declared by me. And why are they declared by me? Because they are connected with the goal, are fundamental to the holy life. They lead to disenchantment, dispassion, cessation, calming, direct knowledge, self-awakening, Unbinding. That's why they are declared by me.”
“"So, Malunkyaputta, remember what is undeclared by me as undeclared, and what is declared by me as declared."”
There “stress” is Thanissaro Bhikkhu’s translation for “dukkha” which is more generally any kind of unsatisfactoriness. Even if you are experiencing unblemished happiness, for years on end, not a moment of unhappiness or disatisfaction, nothing ever goes wrong in your life, still, you know that such a state can’t go on for ever. Even if you don’t think about that either, still, that doesn’t mean you have achieved a state of permanent happiness and freedom from suffering, it just means you have a “holiday in Samsara” that lets you forget about if for a while.
So the path he taught is not a path to answering these types of questions. He isn’t trying to teach us a “theory of everything” that will answer our every question about the world. Rather amongst all the things he could have taught, things he might or might not have had insight into, he teaches us a path to cessation of suffering, and of all forms of unsatisfactoriness, and to wisdom and compassion.
FRUITLESS SPECULATION AND SCIENTIFIC QUEST
However in the modern world I think that the scientific exploration of our universe, trying to understand how it works, that’s a different thing from the fruitless speculations Buddha taught about when he remained silent when asked those questions.
It’s more practical, it’s investigating directly, and is a way of looking for answers to detailed questions he couldn’t have anticipated. And it’s a search for truth that we can come to understand and verify for ourselves. Modern Buddhist teachers are sometimes very interested in modern science, for instance the Dalai Lama has a special interest in the results of physics, astronomy etc.
Nevertheless I think that surely we’ll never be able to answer questions such as whether the universe has existed for ever or not. If it seems to have begun at some point, you can always ask “How did that beginning come to be, was there another universe before”? E.g. with Stephen Hawking’s idea of the entire universe as a quantum fluctuation - still you can ask - how did that happen? Was there something else before then in some sense (even if it began time for our present universe, still there may have been something else causally prior)?
And if it seems to have existed for ever, as in the various endless cycle universes (e.g. Penrose’s conformal mapping model), you can always ask - “Might it have had a beginning at some point”? Then you can ask similar questions about the future of the universe as well, also about its spatial extent.
Those sorts of questions then are similar to the ones Buddha remained silent about, translated into a modern scientific context. At that point, if one got anxious about those and felt that it was necessary to solve those questions, especially feeling you have to solve such questions to follow the Buddhist path - that’s then Buddha’s forest of views and fruitless speculation.
I’m only answering from the book. I’ll ignore the movies, which I also haven’t watched in their entirety. So, first, it seems that it takes a while to locate the ring, when it is used. On Amon Hen....
(more)I’m only answering from the book. I’ll ignore the movies, which I also haven’t watched in their entirety. So, first, it seems that it takes a while to locate the ring, when it is used. On Amon Hen. then Frodo senses the eye trying to locate him, getting closer and closer, and he just removes the ring in time.
When Samwise puts it on, Sauron’s attention is gripped by the war he is fighting, on directing his armies and trying to capture the ring which he thinks Aragorn has. Also Sam has the phial of Galadriel which helps to mask it.
Seems that geography helps also - at the party when Bilbo puts it on, and later when Frodo puts it on at Brie, then they have the misty mountains and a long distance between them and Frodo.
When Sam puts it on also, he was just outside Mordor proper, with the mountains still in its way between him and Sauron. Then, it says
“He felt that if once he went beyond the crown of the pass, and took one step vertibaly down into the land of Mordor, that step would be irrevocable. He could never come back.Without any clear purpose he drew out the Ring and put it on again. Immediately he felt the great burden of its weight, and felt afresh, but now more strong and urgent than ever, the malice of the Eye of Mordoer, searching, trying to pierce the shadows that it had made for its own defense, but which now hindered it in its unquiet and doubt”. The Return of the King
So you have the unquiet and doubt of Sauron there, and you also have the shadows it made to defend itself. Plus Sam only puts the ring on for a short time and uses it mainly to find out what happened to Frodo. Then, later when he is tempted to use the ring, he is no longer wearing it, just contemplates putting it on again but doesn’t do so.
When Frodo and Tom Bombadil put it on in Tom Bombadil’s house, then the magic of Tom Bombadil masks it so the black riders can’t find it.
And earlier on, Gollum was deep underground, so that’s the geography of the large mountains above him masking it. And Sauron also was kind of asleep, only slowly taking form again.
So it’s a combination of
The google lunar X prize has two heritage bonus prizes:
The google lunar X prize has two heritage bonus prizes:
So, at some point maybe we’ll get video of the Apollo mission hardware from the surface. Probably a few of the moon hoax conspiracy theorists will insist that this also is faked but I expect that would be hard to ignore.
I can’t really answer for Bikkhus - but this is something that can be a challenge for Buddhists generally. Many Buddhists take a vow of not killing - it’s one of the five precepts you can take as a...
(more)I can’t really answer for Bikkhus - but this is something that can be a challenge for Buddhists generally. Many Buddhists take a vow of not killing - it’s one of the five precepts you can take as a lay Buddhists. I’ve taken it myself.
So the way they work is that you can break them in major or in minor ways. Killing insects is not one of those major breaches.
MAJOR BREACHES
If you kill your parents, or an arhat, or a Buddha, or your guru if you do take on someone as your guru (most people don’t), that totally breaks the vow of not killing.
You would do a lot of purification practices if you did something like that, whether you’d taken the precept or not indeed. This is an example of one teacher’s advice to someone who had killed his parents in a delusional state Lama Yeshe Wisdom Archive - that sort of advice would be very dependent on who you go to in that situation so it’s just an example.
More generally the most important thing is to refrain from killing other people, if that’s something one is prone to do.
But it’s the intention also, so if you kill someone in an accident, you didn’t intend to do it. So you haven’t broken the vow, not if it was a complete accident.
To break the vow completely, you need the intention to do it, the action of killing that you try to do it, the completion - that you succeed, and finally you need to rejoice in completion of the action - if you immediately regret then that’s a much less heavy thing though you’ve still broken the vow.
MINOR BREACHES OF THE VOWS
In the same way if you kill insects while breathing, walking, drinking water, gardening etc there is no intention there either.
When you kill insects to stop spread of disease, or for medical reasons, or for instance, you have to kill ticks or fleas to protect a pet - then that’s a mixed thing. You still have the negativity of killing things, and you do have the full completion, but you have the positive side of it also that you are doing it to help them as well.
Your preceptor or your teachers or advisors would explain in detail how to deal with those situations and what to do to try to transform it as best you can. But yes, you would kill insects or such like in order to protect someone from disease or yourself, or an animal like a pet, or an animal you are caring for etc.
Myself I live in a Lyme disease district and have to remove ticks right away if they bite me, although that might kill them, to prevent myself from getting Lyme disease. Even though I do that, I actually got one of those circular rashes recently, just a few weeks ago - the doctor gave me a strong dose of antibiotics and it went away. So it’s a real risk here. Perhaps I left a tick for too long before I noticed it and removed it.
Also, you may do activities that obviously increase the number of insects and other creatures you’ll kill like gardening. It’s how your mind is that matters though. Again that’s something you’d discuss with your preceptors. Different traditions also may have different ways of handling it, but the main thing is you do your best to make it into a positive thing, but of course you have to protect humans and higher animals that you care for, and yourself, from insects and diseases that harm them. That’s recognized and though ideally you wouldn’t kill even insects, in our world that’s not practical and you do the best you can.
.And the main thing here is that it is a mind training thing. You do it not to stop insects from dying, which is obviously impossible. You do it to train your mind so that you are less involved in killing others. It’s hard to be compassionate and wise if you go around intentionally killing insects, and especially if you rejoice in doing that, it kind of blocks you off a bit from being able to appreciate that they also suffer.
In the same way also - it’s not like a crusade. You don’t have to go around freeing insects from spider’s webs for instance :). The spiders have to survive too. You can feel compassion for both. Nor do you have to go around freeing insects from insect eating plants either. The main focus is on training yourself, and then whatever compassion or wisdom comes out of this restraint, then that can give a bit more space, a bit more restraint, to follow the path.
CAN’T STOP KARMA
And - some people have the mistaken idea that the aim of Buddhists is to stop all karma. That’s impossible. You have countless seeds of karma from the past, even not doing anything is a form of action. It’s just not possible to not act, to cease acting at all in any way. It’s rather to create some space, to deal with the worst issues such as killing other people, and to open out to other beings generally, and within that then you have space for true boundless compassion and wisdom and loving kindness to arise.
Meanwhile, basic morality like this gives us some restraint to help us to avoid the worst excesses that can cause serious problems in your life and cause you to be a nuisance to others as well. So that’s how we see it, as Buddhists who have taken the vow of non killing.
BUDDHIST MONKS EATING MEAT
That also can help perhaps to understand why we also may eat meat. The Dalai Lama eats meat too, his doctor advised him that he needed to. Many Tibetan bikkhus eat meat though Therevadhan bikkhus maybe tend more towards vegetarianism.
That may be very hard to understand until you realize that it’s a mind training rather than a crusade to change the world so that animals don’t die any more. Again the animals will die anyway. Sadly, we can’t stop that. And for bikkhus, actually the guideline is that they should accept whatever food is given to them, so long as it is safe to eat.
So if you are a bikkhu and someone offers you a meal of meat, you are expected to accept it. The main exception there is if they offer to kill a creature for you, then if you are a bikkhu you would say that this goes against your vows and that you can’t eat an animal that’s been killed to provide you with food.
Buzz Aldrin carried out a private and quiet communion service on the Moon after landing and just before they exited the lunar module. It happened when he said:
(more)“"Houston, this is Eagle. This is the ...
Buzz Aldrin carried out a private and quiet communion service on the Moon after landing and just before they exited the lunar module. It happened when he said:
“"Houston, this is Eagle. This is the LM Pilot speaking. I would, like to request a few moments of silence. I would like to invite each person listening in, wherever and whomever he may be, to contemplate for a moment the events of the past few hours and to give thanks in his own individual way."
His account of it in detail is here: Guideposts Classics: Buzz Aldrin on Communion in Space. He didn’t talk about it until much later.
This is not exactly secret, but kind of fun and not many people know it. The first “flag” like object unfurled on the Moon was not the American flag. It was a blank sheet produced by the Swiss to capture the solar wind, and was the first experiment they deployed, before the US flag. It consisted of an aluminium foil sheet, 1.4 m by 0.3 m, fixed to a pole facing the Sun. They deployed it first to maximize its exposure to the solar wind.
Buzz Aldrin standing next to the blank “Swiss flag” experiment. It was also the only non US experiment on the flight. First 'flag' on the Moon?
This “flag” was detached from its pole at the end of their time on the Moon and returned to Earth for analysis. Solar Wind Composition Experiment
When Neil Armstrong died, his widow found a secret stash of pieces of hardware from the Apollo 11 mission in a white bag. Secret stash of Moon artifacts found hidden in Neil Armstrong's closet
The astronauts scribbled notes on the inside of the Command module during the mission - something only discovered this year (2016) through 3D scans.
And:
(Says “SMELLY WASTE” above the PPK sign)
Those were written during the flight. Michael Collins also crawled back in after splashdown to write this (this has been known for a long time, not one of the newly discovered graffiti):
“Following splashdown,while en route to Hawaii on the USS Hornet, Michael Collins crawled back into the command module (it was connected to the mobile quarantine facility by an air-tight tunnel) and wrote this short note on one of the equipment bay panels. The inscription reads:
Spacecraft 107, alias Apollo 11, alias ‘Columbia.’
The Best Ship to Come Down the Line. God Bless Her.
Michael Collins, CMP”
Michael Collins' Inscription inside Apollo 11 Command Module "Columbia"
This shows how they did it. Basically taking lots of photos from inside the module, along with doing laser scans of it all.
The Smithsonian is 3-D scanning Apollo 11 to share with the digital generation
More images and details here:
Apollo 11: The Writings on the Wall - AirSpace
The reason they weren’t found before is because nobody can enter the craft. Even while doing this scan they weren’t permitted to go inside but did it from outside. The aim is to create a virtual 3D version of the module for anyone to download and explore or make a 3D print of it. It was a very challenging project apparently
"We tried to determine how to provide the most possible access to the data collecting technology, but at the same time, protect the object and not damage it," said Needell. "We decided that [the people collecting the data] could not get in and sit in the seats, for instance, nor could they build a platform to put scanners physically inside the command module."
“Needell and his team also decided that they would provide access to the lower equipment bay, the area located below the astronauts' seats, which housed the ship's navigation sextant, telescope and computer.”
"No one from the Smithsonian, as far I knew — not as long as I've been the curator for 20 years, has ever been below there to document the conditions or any of the aspects of the lower equipment bay," said Needell. "We've been able to sort of see above the seats, but that's about all."
From: Apollo 11 astronauts wrote on moon ship's walls, Smithsonian 3D scan reveals | collectSPACE
They removed a big bag of stuff, and beneath that they saw the graffiti for the first time.
See also: Apollo 11 Crew Wrote on Moon Ship Walls, Smithsonian 3D Scan Reveals
Also: Analysis of Handwritten Notes Inside the Cabin of Apollo 11 Spacecraft CM-107 "Columbia"
I lived through it, and through the scientific discoveries and surprises, and watching the take off and splashdown and watching them live for hours on the Moon. I don't for a moment doubt it really happened.
...
(more)I lived through it, and through the scientific discoveries and surprises, and watching the take off and splashdown and watching them live for hours on the Moon. I don't for a moment doubt it really happened.
But for those who need reasons: I think the clearest evidence is from the rocks themselves.
You can watch a video of an astronaut pick up a rock on the Moon, then go and look at the detailed scientific study of that rock here on Earth.
Scientists still use those rocks collected in the 1960s and 70s to answer questions that weren't asked back then using instruments that weren't yet invented to measure things they couldn't measure back then.
Also, the rocks are riddled with micrometeorite impact mini craters which you can only see with an electron microscope.
Spherule with micrometeorite damage in lunar rocks.
They couldn't simulate these back then. Even to this day we can't do it.
As an example of how different lunar rocks are - if you heat genuine lunar regolith (crumbly “soil”) in a microwave, it turns into glass in 30 seconds because of all the micrometeorite glass in it and because that glass is intimately mixed up with nanophase iron created in processes on the lunar surface which amplifies the effects of microwaves.
That doesn't work with the regolith simulants they make on Earth so some things can only be answered by using the genuine lunar regolith - and the only source for that is from the Apollo missions.
The few meteorites we get from the Moon aren't the same thing at all. And back at the time of Apollo then the meteorites from the Moon in Antarctica hadn't yet been discovered.
Here are answers to some of the things brought up by conspiracy theorists
There's much more, the photographs of the lunar landing sites by LRO
Also photos by the Indian orbiter (independent therefore of NASA) and Japanese orbiter that show the dust thrown up by the landing.
https://web.archive.org/web/2010....
Also many who tracked them via radio through the mission.
And anyway we didn’t have the video and film making technology back then to hoax it, see:
See also, my answer to What are the best arguments for debunking Moon Landing Hoax Conspiracy Theories? and other answers there What are the best arguments for debunking Moon Landing Hoax Conspiracy Theories?
I think that to get caught up in these conspiracy ideas deflects attention away from the real issues. Which are things we can do something about. Things like health care, climate change, human rights, even asteroid impact detection and prevention for that matter, real issues that can be addressed.
For asteroids see my Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them - with a space telescope costing half a billion dollars we could find most of the potentially hazardous asteroids down to 40 meters diameter in six and a half years. The astronomers are doing so much to detect asteroids but could do so much more with this level of funding.
Well there hasn’t been an impact large enough in the last over three billion years to do that, so it’s not something we need to worry about at present. We seem to be protected by Jupiter, from the ...
(more)Well there hasn’t been an impact large enough in the last over three billion years to do that, so it’s not something we need to worry about at present. We seem to be protected by Jupiter, from the very largest asteroids, though not from small ones of order ten kilometers or so and smaller.
However, if you look at the cratering record then there were some really large impacts on the Moon, Earth, Mars and its Moons, Mercury over three billion years ago. Impactors of the order of 100 kilometers across or larger. For instance the lunar south pole Aitken crater was probably created by an impactor about 100 kilometers across. These date back to towards the end of the late heavy bombardment, when the solar system was still settling down into its current state.
An asteroid 100 kilometers across would be seriously bad news for Earth. Still, microbes would be likely to survive deep below the surface if nothing else, and others sent off into space in the debris. So I’m not sure that even that would end all life on Earth. Even the impact that created the Moon could have sent hardy microbial spores into space only to return to Earth when it cooled down millions of years later.
So, I’m not sure we can give a size that would do this. Maybe even an Earth sized planet hitting Earth wouldn’t end all life here.
If you mean just making humans extinct, well I think it would have to be quite a bit larger than the dinosaurs Chicxulub impact. Because many lifeforms survived that including birds, mammals, turtles, crocodiles, the dawn redwood tree etc. Humans are so adaptable I’m sure we’d survive also. Even with stoneage technology we can survive anywhere from the Arctic through to the Kalahari desert, tropical rainforest, high mountain plateaus, just about anywhere. And as omnivores we can survive (if not very healthy on some diets) again almost anywhere. We can eat shellfish, or fish, many kinds of plants and fruit, animals. After the Chicxulub disaster there would be plenty for humans to eat with minimal stone age technology.
So - I know some say humans would go extinct after a 10 kilometer asteroid impact. I don’t see that. I don’t think that could make us extinct. It would have to be much larger, large enough so there are no habitats for humans on Earth and nothing for us to eat for long enough for us all to starve or die. It would be large enough if it boiled the oceans and melted the continents.
Those are impacts we don’t need to worry about, because they are so improbable that you might as well call them impossible. Because Jupiter protects us from these very large asteroids.
In principle a stone lying on a path could jump ten meters into the air or higher, if all the atoms in the stone happened to be moving in the same direction at the same time. But that’s so improbable that there’s no point planning for it or even giving it any serious thought. So sometimes things are possible in theory but so very improbable you might as well just ignore them.
I’m not sure what the probability is of a 100 kilometer impactor. It can’t be right to just draw a straight line and say that we must get a 1000 kilometer asteroid every billion years as in this diagram.
Meteorites, Impacts, & Mass Extinction
That’s quite good for the smaller asteroids, but when it gets up to 100 kilometers, or 1000 kilometers, it just can’t be right at all, or we’d have many huge crater scars. Mars, Mercury, the moons of Mars and our Moon and Earth would have between them at least quite a few recent impacts of 1000 kilometers in diameter asteroids more recently than over three billion years ago. Especially as Mars is closer to the asteroid belt and gets more impacts than us.
Instead none of them even have an impact crater from a 100 kilometer asteroid since well over 3 billion years ago. With that evidence, of no large impact scars for so long on any of them, you might as well just say it is impossible - for all practical purposes anyway.
BTW a 10 kilometer asteroid is also very improbable. It’s 99.9999% certain we won’t be hit one in any given century. Last one was 66 million years ago and they happen roughly every 100 million years. But that doesn’t mean there is one due to hit us soon or that it is any more probable than it was the year after the Chicxulub impact. Probability doesn’t work like that unless there is some correlation.
And actually this century we have already plotted the orbits of all the near Earth asteroids of around 10 km or larger and none are headed our way this century. So that makes it even more unlikely. Would have to be a comet or an asteroid in a comet-like orbit that takes it way beyond Jupiter, and those are rare compared to ordinary asteroids in the inner solar system.
See also my Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
And you can try out this online Impact: Earth! calculator which figures out the effect of impactors of various diameters. It also gives you an idea of how often they happen.
The full text is
(more)“But Círdan from their first meeting at the Grey Havens divined in him the greatest spirit and the wisest; and he welcomed him with reverence, and he gave to his keeping the Third R...
The full text is
“But Círdan from their first meeting at the Grey Havens divined in him the greatest spirit and the wisest; and he welcomed him with reverence, and he gave to his keeping the Third Ring, Narya the Red.
‘For,’ said he, ‘great labours and perils lie before you, and lest your task prove too great and wearisome, take this Ring for your aid and comfort. It was entrusted to me only to keep secret, and here upon the West-shores it is idle; but I deem that in days ere long to come it should be in nobler hands than mine, that may wield it for the kindling of all hearts to courage.’ And the Grey Messenger took the Ring, and kept it ever secret; yet the White Messenger (who was skilled to uncover all secrets) after a time became aware of this gift, and begrudged it, and it was the beginning of the hidden ill-will that he bore to the Grey, which afterwards became manifest.”
from this answer Did Saruman tell Sauron about Gandalf wielding Narya?
So, I think he simply would not have given the ring to Saruman. He recognized Gandalf as the better wizard to carry it. I think the alternative is that Cirdan kept the ring himself, for safe keeping.
So then, would Gandalf and Saruman between them have managed to defeat Sauron without the ring? It may have played crucial roles in Gandalf’s journeys. I think we aren’t really told how much of what Gandalf did was due to the ring’s powers and how much intrinsic to himself. The whole history could have changed, e.g. leading to Sauron getting hold of the ring in Mirkwood forest as the Necromancer, who knows.
Also, I think Saruman had many individual choices that he made, e.g. when Gandalf met him in the tower, he gave him a chance, one that he didn’t take, but potentially he could have. I think you can’t say that he was in any way “fixed” in what he did. If you reran history as it were, he might not have gone to the bad even with everything identical.
Of course it’s also a work of fiction, and then if you think about narrative necessity, that complicates it even further. If the author decided Cirdan should keep the ring, or give it to Saruman, what other changes would there be in the story? Would it mean he has to make Gandalf the weak and jealous one, and Saruman the one who is better able to handle the ring in order to explain Cirdan’s decision? If so that’s just calling Gandalf Saruman, and calling Saruman Gandalf, just a change of names for the main characters, you’d end up with Saruman becoming a Gandalf like figure, but with some differences of course in how he handled situations. And anyway - the dark riders started off as Gandalf’s sneeze and cold in the history of how the story developed through successive drafts (in the earliest draft of the Lord of the Rings first few chapterse,after hearing the snuffling noise and hiding the hobbits find it is just Gandalf with a cold and run out to greet him).
So in that sense, of how the story developed through successive drafts, what would that idea of Cirdan giving Saruman Narya in the unfinished tales have done to the characters of Saruman, Gandalf and indeed all the other beings and characters in the book? I think you can’t really answer questions like this though you can have fun trying.
It might be a state you enter that is out of the ordinary, not like your usual experience. Those states, if they come and go, can’t be enlightenment. Enlightenment can’t be a product of causes, can...
(more)It might be a state you enter that is out of the ordinary, not like your usual experience. Those states, if they come and go, can’t be enlightenment. Enlightenment can’t be a product of causes, can’t come and go. It is supremely ordinary in a way :).
“It is incorrect to think that Nirvāṇa is the natural result of the extinction of craving. Nirvāṇa is not the result of anything. If it would be a result, then it would be an effect produced by a cause. It would be saṃkhata ‘produced’ and ‘conditioned’. Nirvāṇa is neither cause nor effect. It is beyond cause and effect. Truth is not a result nor an effect. It is not produced like a mystic, spiritual, mental state, such as dhyāna or samādhi. TRUTH IS. NIRVĀṆA IS. The only thing you can do is to see it, to realize it. There is a path leading to the realization of Nirvāṇa. But Nirvāṇa is not the result of this path You may get to the mountain along a path, but the mountain is not the result, not an effect of the path. You may see a light, but the light not the result of your eyesight.”
The Third Noble Truth - Walpola Rahula: What the Buddha Taught
But sometimes these states do carry something of the message or blessings of enlightenment. Other times they are just distractions.
Either way, where it can go wrong is if you start to try to find ways to reproduce it. Once it becomes a state you try to reproduce, it becomes an effect you are trying to cause. It becomes like a child hitting their head against a wall to try to se stars. Once that happens, then you can spiral into hitting your head harder and harder until you see really bright stars - that’s doing nobody any good. Even if it is genuinely carrying something of the message of non self or enlightenment or whatever it is.
Generally the best thing to do when you get unusual experiences that seem in some way “spiritual” is to just recognize them as experiences. Okay today I stubbed my toe. And yesterday I got this unusual state of mind I’ve never encountered before. Just accept them both as states that arise, and then pass away. A good teacher would help you there, how to deal with it.
There may be a message sometimes of some sort. If so, well it will come back in its own time. A good teacher may help you in other ways at this point. But it’s not easy to do much yourself, because as soon as you feel you can achieve something using this experience, that becomes a spiritual accomplishment, or something you create and possess, which for a Buddhist anyway - that’s leading you away from the path. A teacher helps by being someone else who is not you who can lead you in a fresh direction, but it’s very hard to do that at that point by yourself.
Basically you need a sense of humour. Okay I’m bound to get funny states from time to time. And sometimes I’m bound to start treating them and myself as special because of those states. This happens to everyone at some point if they do any work with their mind including meditation or just deep contemplation. Can happen sometimes from listening to music, or art, or just looking at a flower. Indeed in some traditions they say these sorts of experiences are happening all the time, but we just don’t notice it or immediately forget them. There’s nothing special about any of it. Nor is there anything special about enlightenment. In some traditions again the ay they put this is that the number of Buddhas way outnumbers ordinary beings. Nearly everyone is enlightened already and we are the few dumb ones left who have somehow not managed to “get it” after countless trillions of lifetimes.
That thought can help one to not treat such experiences as special, and to maybe be open to the path and to finding a direction. While if you treat them as special you’ll maybe never get any closer. It can become a very big impediment indeed for those who fixate too much on it. My teacher once told us that the sickness of clinging to illusory ideas of self is difficult to deal with - but the sickness of clinging to illusory realizations of non self is extremely hard to deal with - because you have turned the medicine that could cure you into a sickneses itself.
So, it just needs a light touch. Which is where a teacher can really help, that’s one of the main roles of a teacher I think. I don’t mean a guru though that is also the main role of a guru too if I understand it right (I don’t have a guru) - but just a teacher who is not yourself. can help a lot. Without a teacher, just a sense of humour and a light touch will help a lot.
If you haven’t read Walpola Rahula’s little book “What the Buddha taught” you may find it helps a lot to be a bit more grounded about such things. The Third Noble Truth - Walpola Rahula: What the Buddha Taught
In the lunar daytime, no chance unless they cover many square kilometers of the lunar surface. They’d just show up as part of the apparently white surface of the Moon. And would be so small as to b...
(more)In the lunar daytime, no chance unless they cover many square kilometers of the lunar surface. They’d just show up as part of the apparently white surface of the Moon. And would be so small as to be invisible. Even the Hubble space telescope could only just spot the ISS on the Moon but no chance of recognizing it as it would be just over a pixel across. That’s with Hubble. So you can see that our naked eyes would have no chance at all of seeing even the most gigantic of buildings on the Moon.
The easiest way to see them would be during the local lunar night. You could see a greenhouse if it was of order one kilometer across, lit up at night. A greenhouse the size of a typical large field in the dark part of a crescent Moon would be similar in brightness to a sixth magnitude star, just visible in good conditions.
You couldn’t see an ice skating rink or a giant slalom ski slope.
The largest ski resorts are thousands of acres. If we had a fully developed ski industry on the Moon - if low gravity skiing really took off, they would only need to cover 10 acres or so to be visible as a sixth magnitude star from Earth. Or 25 acres for a fourth magnitude star, or 62.5 acres for a second magnitude star, or 157 acres for a zero magnitude star. That is, if lit to be as bright as daylight, and if it has a transparent cover, which may be a big "if".
As for street lights, the street lights of the city of Chicago on the Moon would be equivalent to a 9th magnitude star in brightness. So you'd need powerful binoculars to see them from a dark site on the Earth, and a small telescope to see them from a brighter site from the astronomical magnitude scale. That is assuming all the light is directed downwards to illuminate the streets, and that all that light is then returned back into space - in practice, it would be reduced further by the albedo of the surface. If it illuminated lunar soil, it would be reduced in brightness by an extra 2.3 magnitudes, to over 11th magnitude.
MAKING THEMSELVES VISIBLE TO US
A one megaton explosion on the Moon would be of magnitude -10 approximately. Far brighter than Sirius and approaching the brightness of the Moon itself at -12.74, equivalent to an 8% illuminated crescent Moon.
You'd see it easily. But only for a fraction of a second - you would have to be looking at the Moon at just the right moment to see it.
You can see a 1 watt blue laser from the ISS as a negative magnitude star, you can surely shine lasers from the Moon to the Earth to be visible from Earth - the main question is just now many of them you need.
See also:
Which I wrote up as: Could You See Moon City Lights Or A Greenhouse From Earth? Just For Fun
WHAT ABOUT FEATURES VISIBLE ON THE SUNLIT SIDE OF THE MOON?
If you want it to be visible against the fully illuminated Moon, then we need to look at visual acuity ( a point “star like” source won’t do).
So then, I think best bet would be to exploit the way we can see straight lines easily. As for resolution, to be easy to see with the naked eye, needs to be about 1 arc minute, the Moon is half a degree in width, so about a thirtieth of the width of the Moon so about 100 kilometers in diameter. That's for someone with near to perfect vision.
But then you'd need several of those marks to make a clear straight line, otherwise unless you knew the Moon very well you wouldn't know it is artificial .
That is unless you can make a spot so small a distinctive artificial colour which I don't know if it is possible (would our colour receptors respond to a dot of colour so small?). If you could, maybe one spot will do.
Anyway, gives a rough idea. So perhaps if you made a line of four spots each a bit over 100 kilometers in diameter and made them - maybe very bright, maybe bright and coloured, or also very dark, maybe someone with keen eyesight would see an artificial seeming feature?
This chap assumes 3 arc minutes so then ends up with the feature a bit over 300 km in diameter.
What is the smallest feature on the Moon, that can be seen from the Earth with the unaided eye?
If you can use ten times binoculars, it only needs to be 10 - 30 kilometers in diameter.
If you can use Hubble (very unlikely of course that they'd let you) then it can be 60 meters in diameter but that's for a single pixel, if you need several, you are talking about the size of the ISS, something that large might be visible to Hubble on the surface.
HubbleSite - Reference Desk - FAQs
There is one way around this though. If you can make something that casts a shadow - so tall but not otherwise large - it could maybe cast a shadow large enough to be seen. So your 30 kilometer diameter spot could instead be a 30 kilometer long high wall and then you'd see it when the sun is low casting long shadows, in optimal conditions.
A bit of technical background here. Zen “monks” are ordained under a different section of the sutra canon than Buddist monks elsewhere.
In most traditions, monks are ordained following the Vinaya or...
(more)A bit of technical background here. Zen “monks” are ordained under a different section of the sutra canon than Buddist monks elsewhere.
In most traditions, monks are ordained following the Vinaya or discipline sutras. These include vows of celibacy.
In Japan, starting in the ninth century, they began a new form of ordination based on the bodhisattva vow. Saichō was responsible for starting this tradition of basing it on the bohisattva vow. In this tradition, they don't take a vow of celibacy, so can get married, and some do. For the history see A Brief History of the Buddhist Precepts in Medieval Japan
For another view on it:
"The Buddhist monk Saichô (767-822) dared to abrogate the multitude of traditional small precepts in favour of the sole precept to «awaken to the fundamental one-mind of Mahayana. He established a ceremony for the taking of this precept and built a Mahayana ordination platform for the purpose on Mount Hiei near Kyoto. Since then, various branches of Japanese Buddhism have adhered to this. But Zen, following in the steps of its Chinese tradition, upheld an original structure of mutual complementarity of the monastic and secular communities and thus did not completely give way to lay Buddhism. Although this was a Contradictory compromise of a kind that is again different from that of Southeast Asian Buddhism, one can say that the realization of this kind of contradiction bears potential for the future. However, it also proved to be a cause for confusion in monastic Japanese Buddhism.”
There are other traditions of Buddhism that base the ordination on the bodhisattva vows. Especially Thích Nhất Hạnh with his "order of interbeing". But his monks and nuns are celibate.
I don't know much about this subject. but in a general way, why it’s permitted in Zen Buddhism is because it's based on the Mahayana and the bodhisattva vow, rather than the Vinaya, and then also, the focus is on awakening to the true nature of mind as well. So the complexity of the Vinaya is replaced by a vow basically to wake up :).
In any of the other traditions, a monk or nun can give up their vows at any time, and it is a simple process. They just need to say that they are giving up their robes to anyone of sound mind able to understand what they are saying. After that they can get married, but would no longer be a monk or nun,
And in all the traditions you can be a Buddhist and be married or in a sexual relationship (depending on the traditions of your country / society). There are lay vows you can take as a Buddhist also if you want to take on some disciplines - including vows of not engaging in sexual misconduct - which is mainly to do with expectations, not to hurt others by cheating, or by dealing with them in ways that hurt them or others around you because of cultural expectations.
However Zen Buddhism is rather unusual amongst monastic orders - in any religion I think - with this approach of permitting monks and nuns to be in relationships or married.
I think there’s some confusion here. He didn’t say anything about whether he’d take rebirth again. He just said that he didn’t know if the institution of the Dalai Lama would continue. He said that...
(more)I think there’s some confusion here. He didn’t say anything about whether he’d take rebirth again. He just said that he didn’t know if the institution of the Dalai Lama would continue. He said that would depend on the wishes of the Tibetan people when the time comes.
Anyone who isn’t Buddha takes rebirth when they die. So if he isn’t Buddha (he says himself he is not enlightened) then he will take rebirth, but his next rebirth won’t be recognized as the Dalai Lama and could be anywhere.
As for Buddhas, it depends. Buddha Shakyamuni said he wouldn’t take rebirth again and when asked what happens to him after he dies wouldn’t answer. These are four of the unanswered questions in the Pali Canon:
In all the traditions then Buddha Shakyamuni doesn’t take rebirth after he dies but enters paranirvana - whatever that means.
He has however blessed the world by his presence. You can connect with him - through the sutras, and through the teachings and meditation, the inspiration of enlightenment and experience the teachings directly yourself. It’s like there’s no distance of time or space between you and his teachings (I think this is a Mahayana way of looking at it, not sure).
But in the Tibetan traditions you also have emanations of Buddha - so not of Shakyamuni Buddha, the historical Buddha, because he entered paranirvana. But other Buddhas can manifest in our world in many forms - as animals, birds, and even the likes of rivers, bridges etc. Or as a stream of rebirths of one person after another.
So, depends on whether you see the Dalai Lama as an ordinary person, as a bodhisattva, or as a Buddha. According to some of the traditions of Buddhism, it’s possible to see anyone as a Buddha, it’s something intrinsic to us all, our “Buddha nature”. So then it’s not so clear cut - the answer to the question, is someone Buddha or not? Because we all are, if we could only see it. And the other way around, according to the sutras, the first person the historical Buddha met after his enlightenment didn’t recognize him as Buddha, but turned another way, so couldn’t be said to have met a Buddha even though he met his physical form.
So as an ordinary person or a Bodhisattva he has to take rebirth in some form. As a Buddha he can emanate in many different forms even simultaneously, or can continue as a stream of Buddhas one after another, or he can enter paranirvana similarly to the Buddha. It seems to be a matter of choice in a way - but it’s also a matter of the wishes of the people and beings they are connected to.
According to the Pali sutras, then before he died, Shakyamuni Buddha hinted to Ananda that if asked, he could remain until the end of this world system. I don’t know what that means but Ananda missed the chance to ask him to remain, and by the time he got the hint, it was too late, the process of paranirvana was already underway.
So, whatever that means exactly, it seems to suggest that whether Buddhas remain or pass into paranirvana is not just a choice they make, but a matter of a combination of their connections with us, and the wishes and requests of those connected to them.
If nobody has the right connection for them to remain, they just can’t do it, because their physical body is a result of that connection with us, due to their past connections with us before they became enlightened, and our present connection with them (or something, I forget the details here), and without the connection from our side, well it’s like Buddha is right in front of us but we can’t see him or her.
This is subtle stuff so I’ve probably got some of this wrong, and it’s partly summarizing things I was taught long ago and don’t remember too well, but it may give a rough idea, enough to get started. Anyway it means that if you see the Dalai Lama as already enlightened, it’s much the same really as if you see him as an ordinary person or a bodhisattva still on the path - if the institution of the Dalai Lama no longer continues when he dies, still, if he is Buddha, he can emanate in many forms and it doesn’t stop that. It would just mean he doesn’t emanate as the Dalai Lama. His stream of blessings of the awkened mind could continue as a bridge, stream, flower, or new human beings, but not identified as the Dalai Lama.
Well, yes, I think so, a distinct path from other paths available at the time. For instance the Jains were following a different path with a different teacher at the time Buddha was alive.
He talked...
(more)Well, yes, I think so, a distinct path from other paths available at the time. For instance the Jains were following a different path with a different teacher at the time Buddha was alive.
He talked about the teachings he gave as the teacher for his followers after he died:
After the conversion of Subhadda, the Buddha spoke again to Venerable Ananda. "It may be, Ananda, that some of you will say, 'without the Buddha, the Sublime Teacher, there is no teacher for us'. No, Ananda, you should not think in this way. Whatever doctrine and discipline taught and made known by me will be your teacher when I am gone."
Buddha's Final Words of Advice (Part 2)
So he taught with the idea that his teachings would continue after he died. And that path which he taught, grounded by those teachings, is what we call Buddhism. So yes, I’d say he intended Buddhism.
What he didn’t intend though is an “ism” that separates itself from all other forms of thought and paths in the sense that if you are a Buddhist you can only listen to Buddhist teachers.. Unusually amongst religions, it’s a path to truths that you see for yourself. He made it very clear that we should listen to the truth wherever we hear teachers that inspire us towards it, and to be open to inspiration from anyone. You can’t follow everyone at once, and you may here many different inspiring teachers, and may need to choose one path that is particularly suited to you - but you can be open to inspiration and encouragement from all teachers of all religions or none who help you along the path.
And also encourage others to follow whatever is their path, whatever inspires them towards truth, true wisdom and understanding, openness, compassion, loving kindness and a basic groundedness. Which again may be in many different religions or not a religious path at all.
Well, if you see an image of Chenrezig, for instance, this is an image that’s meant to evoke compassion in much the same way that a vivid image or poem does in the West, say by William Blake. When ...
(more)Well, if you see an image of Chenrezig, for instance, this is an image that’s meant to evoke compassion in much the same way that a vivid image or poem does in the West, say by William Blake. When they say that the Dalai Lama is an embodiment of Chenrezig, it’s recognizing this boundless compassion in him. It’s not saying that only the Dalai Lama is Chenrezig. It’s compassion that’s there in everyone, including yourself.
So most of these images are actually images of all beings - of your own boundless qualities and the boundless qualities of all beings, though those qualities such as boundless compassion can be very hard to see in yourself, and usually are easiest to see external to yourself first in others, or in these abstract forms. Apart from anything else, if you recognize them in yourself chances are you’ll immediately say “this is “my compassion””, try to turn it into a kind of possession or attribute, at which point it immediately stops being boundless. This is just a normal trap that we all fall into, nothing to feel bad about, is just the way we are. You can’t do anything about it except notice it with a wry sense of humour, the more you try to squash such thoughts, the more you increase yet another sense of yourself as a supreme thought squasher :). So that’s equally silly.
Some of them may be images of particular Buddhas or great teachers, for instance you’ll probably see many images that are meant to represent the historical Buddha Shakyamuni. You may find images of other historical great teachers, for instance the Indian mahasiddhas.
Then as well as that, you may see images of other beings in different “realms”. For Buddhists (unlike Hindus) these are not deities, they don’t live for ever. Rather they are beings like us but with very long lives. In our own cosmology, perhaps they are closest to our ideas that there might be extra terrestrials with immensely long lives, happy for millions of years or longer. Maybe with lifetimes of trillions of years. No real reason why our physical universe can’t have beings like that in it. So - it’s similar - what about beings with even longer lives than that?
Then you also have the idea that it’s possible to achieve various meditative states. They are not the end goal at all in Buddhism. But if you achieve a very stable meditative state when you die, then there’s the idea you can end up in realms of pure thought without a body , or even realms that go beyond thought at all. pure pleasure, and then beyond distinctions of pain and pleasure and even more refined states. These are thought of as all being in samsara for Buddhists.
In between those realms and ordinary bodies like ours they have the ideas of “bodies of light”. So some of these beings depicted are beings like us but with immensely long lives, and perhaps with bodies of light. Whatever that means - just think of as like very pure, no ordinary suffering at all. Not thought to be an especially good state to aim for long term because it’s quite hard to motivate yourself to do anything about it if you just experience pure bliss all the time, and yet, it doesn’t last for ever, in Buddhist teaching, eventually those conditions exhaust themselves and you end up back where you started. Other pictures may show beings that suffer greatly too.
So - those are the main distinctions I think
There are no deities in the Hindu sense or the Western sense in these Buddhist tankhas however. Though many may resemble Hindu deities. Surely from the style of the painting, there is some common origin there, but the way the images are understood is different.
Yes, this is sequence A001913 in the online encyclopedia of integer sequences. The sequence starts 7, 17, 19, 23, 29, 47, 59, 61, 97, 109, 113
Primes p such that the decimal expansion of 1/p has period p-1, which is the greatest period possible for any integer
The first few are:
1/7 = 0.142857 (6 digits)
1/ 17 = 0.0588235294117647 (16 digits)
1 / 19 = 0.052631578947368421 (18 digits)
1 / 23 = 0.0434782608695652173913 (22 digits)
1/ 29 = 0.0344827586206896551724137931 (28 digits)
1/47 = 0.0212765957446808510638297872340425531914893617 (46 digits)
1/ 59 = 0.0169491525423728813559322033898305084745762711864406779661 (58 digits)
1 / 61 = 0.016393442622950819672131147540983606557377049180327868852459 (60 digits)
1/97 = 0.010309278350515463917525773195876288659793814432989690721649484536082474226804123711340206185567 (96 digits)
1/109 = 0.009174311926605504587155963302752293577981651376146788990825688073394495412844036697247706422018348623853211 (108 digits)
So try for instance 37 / 109 = 0.33944954128440366972477064220183486238532110091743119266055045871559633027522935779816513761467889908256880733944954128440366972477064220183486238532110091743119266055045871559633027522935779816513761
They are related to the Cyclic numbers and see also Repeating decimall - Cyclic numbers (in wikipedia)
Doesn’t seem that there is any algorithm for generating them (if there was I’m sure they’d say in the OEIS)
Here is an online arbitrary precision calculator you can use to test them.
How long have you practiced Buddhism?
About 35 years
How were you introduced to Buddhism ?
By a Buddhist friend who I shared a rented house with for a year or two (not a girlfriend, just a friend) who...
(more)How long have you practiced Buddhism?
About 35 years
How were you introduced to Buddhism ?
By a Buddhist friend who I shared a rented house with for a year or two (not a girlfriend, just a friend) who was on the point of becoming a Buddhist nun. I’d first been introduced to ideas of rebirth a few years earlier by another friend who was interested in theosophy. As well as introducing me to the basic ideas in many discussions, she was happy and a lot of fun, which rather turned around my ideas of Buddhism which until then I’d thought must be a dull and serious religion :).
Why is Buddhism important to you?
It just makes sense to me. I was a Christian before, and both my parents were missionaries. Later they attended Quaker meetings, which is perhaps the branch of Christianity closest to Buddhism. Christianity made a lot of sense to me also, and if I hadn’t met Buddhists I’d be a Christian to this day I think..
But when I met real Buddhists and talked to them, a lot of the questions I had about Christianity were no longer questions. It was a natural fit.
How does your Buddhism play a role in your daily life?
Nothing very obvious, except of course things like my answers to questions like this. As many Buddhists do, I make an offering of seven bowls of water to the Buddha every morning (when I can, and it’s easy to do, you don’t have to do it). It’s a simple ceremony, symbolic, and the idea is that you are inviting the openness and awakening of the enlightened mind into your life. Also recognizing it as something you have in yourself, that’s important, not just something outside of you.
We are surrounded by so many symbols - ad campaigns, movies, computer games, logos etc. It just is natural to work with symbols, so it helps to start the day with a symbolic gesture that connects you to the path.
What makes Buddhism unique from other religions?
You aren’t required to believe anything to be a Buddhist, not even to believe in rebirth. Although Buddha taught many specific things, they are like guidelines for discovery. Along the path, if you find something to be true which doesn’t accord with what you think the Buddha said, the truth is what you follow. I don’t know of any other religion that works like that.
If you could tell people with no knowledge of Buddhism one thing what would it be?
That everything is impermanent, and changing, much more so than one realizes. It can help to connect to that and realize that when you meet what seem huge insurmountable obstacles, or you get depressed and so on. Helps you to lighten up a bit. It doesn’t solve the problem in any obvious sense but you get a lot more spaciousness. Not just situations, also your desires, depression, joy etc, it all arises and passes.
It can seem a trivial observation, something that everyone knows. But there may be more to it than you’d think. Buddha’s central teaching can be summarized as “whatever arises, passes away”. The entire path is included in that statement. Really understanding that can lead you to see the truth of Nirvana, so it’s taught. In the sutras, they say that some of Buddha’s followers saw the truth of the path just by hearing that phrase (or some variant on it) from someone who had listened to the Buddha teach.
See venerable Somedho’s short piece about this: Everything that arises passes away
What is a common Misconception people hold about Buddhism?
Oh, so many, but perhaps the biggest one, that the aim of a Buddhist is to escape from the universe and disappear from reality, to either cease to exist, or to find a permanent happy existence outside of reality. Nothing could be further from the truth. The path is about gradually opening up to the truth, no matter what it is, in any form, right here, right now. As Walpola Rahula put it,
“It is incorrect to think that Nirvāṇa is the natural result of the extinction of craving. Nirvāṇa is not the result of anything. If it would be a result, then it would be an effect produced by a cause. It would be saṃkhata ‘produced’ and ‘conditioned’. Nirvāṇa is neither cause nor effect. It is beyond cause and effect. Truth is not a result nor an effect. It is not produced like a mystic, spiritual, mental state, such as dhyāna or samādhi. TRUTH IS. NIRVĀṆA IS. The only thing you can do is to see it, to realize it. There is a path leading to the realization of Nirvāṇa. But Nirvāṇa is not the result of this path. You may get to the mountain along a path, but the mountain is not the result, not an effect of the path. You may see a light, but the light not the result of your eyesight..”
For more on this, The Third Noble Truth - Walpola Rahula: What the Buddha Taught
What is your favorite holiday and why?
As someone who lives in a Christian country, then I have the same holidays as everyone else. I’m in the Tibetan Buddhist tradition, and I think the Tibetan new year would be their main holiday of the year. But I’m not involved in any Tibetan religious festivities.
We don’t have direct evidence of Europa’s interior yet, unlike Enceladus where we can find out about the ocean through measurements of its geysers. So ideas are based on modeling it instead, and in...
(more)We don’t have direct evidence of Europa’s interior yet, unlike Enceladus where we can find out about the ocean through measurements of its geysers. So ideas are based on modeling it instead, and indirect evidence.
Its icy crust over the ocean may be as thin as 10 km deep. Improved detection of tides at Europa with radiometric and optical tracking during flybys Though it may be thicker. 15 to 25 km thick. Europa FAQ
It has intriguing chaotic terrain which may be caused by hot water plumes rising up through the ice. If so, it might have liquid water quite close to the surface.
It has hydrogen peroxide on its surface Ingredient for Life Common on Jupiter Moon Europa The oxygen is created by Jupiter’s ionizing radiation dissociating water molecules in the ice. Eventually over geological time, large amounts of oxygen should find their way into its oceans. It also probably has free hydrogen to balance the oxygen in it’s water. NASA just found even more evidence that Europa could host alien life
As for salinity, pH etc, I don’t think they know much yet. One of the things to find out in the upcoming Europa mission, if it goes ahead. Yes! NASA is planning a mission to Europa, one of the best candidates for alien life
For the Buddhists of Sri Lanka, Thailand, Ceylon, it’s the Pāli Canon
For the Koreans, Chinese etc it’s a the Chinese Buddhist canon
The most complete preserved early col...
(more)For the Buddhists of Sri Lanka, Thailand, Ceylon, it’s the Pāli Canon
For the Koreans, Chinese etc it’s a the Chinese Buddhist canon
The most complete preserved early collection of this canon is the Tripitaka Koreana
For Tibetans it’s the Tibetan Buddhist canon
So, different collections for different groups of Buddhists.
The Pali canon is the earliest one and some think that it records the teachings of the Buddha himself, as memorized towards the end of his life, and then for generation after generation until they were eventually written down, using similar methods to those used to preserve the Vedas which everyone agrees were preserved word for word.For more on this, Robert Walker's answer to Is there proof that Buddha existed? If so, what is the strongest proof about his historical existence that we have?
The other canons include many texts known to be composed long after the Buddha.
It’s a bit different from sacred texts in other religions
First, you don’t have to have a guru, and most Buddhists wouldn’t even in Tibetan Buddhism, pretty sure. And, nobody can tell you that they are your guru. Well they can try to say so but you don’t ...
(more)First, you don’t have to have a guru, and most Buddhists wouldn’t even in Tibetan Buddhism, pretty sure. And, nobody can tell you that they are your guru. Well they can try to say so but you don’t need to listen. Because it’s got to come from your side. And you can’t make it happen. Maybe you want some famous or very impressive teacher to be your guru but if you haven’t got the right connection, it will never happen.
And the guru can’t ever tell you to do something that goes against the teachings of the Buddha. Can’t ask you to do something unkind, uncompassionate, something that harms others, something that causes you to do something against basic morality, can’t tell you to steal, kill, lie maliciously etc, or to do something that’s harmful sexually. If asked to do something like that, if you can’t see how it accords with the dharma, just don’t do it. If you get the chance to talk it over with your teacher you can explain how you can’t reconcile what you’ve been asked to do with the dharma and ask for clarification (probably you’ve misunderstood what was asked of you).
Of course your guru may ask you to do things that are puzzling, that are scary in various ways, that maybe make you feel embarrassed, or disgusted even, none of those are against the dharma.
I think the main function of the guru really is to be someone other than yourself. When stuck in a rut, the guru may ask you to do something you’d never do. And the main thing is, if your guru asks you to do something, then it’s like, it takes you out of that space where everything you do is something that somehow you yourself set in motion. It’s next to impossible anyway to understand non self, to get this perspective of somehow seeing that this “I” that you are so sure is there, isn’t really there in the sense you thought it was. Nothing to be got rid of, it’s just not as you thought. Trying to get rid of the thought of I or the impression of having an I etc will just make it even stronger, the “I” that managed to get rid of “I” can become a big deal, such a big deal you have no chance of any realization of non self unless you lighten up a bit.
So the guru there can give you space, by being someone other than “me”. A space in which you may possibly realize something or see some truth.
The only reason for the guru is to help you to see the truth for yourself, whatever truth there is to be seen, the thing you are missing and need to see.
Doesn’t have to be a human. You can get this inspiration from an animal, bird, things that are not particularly intelligent, even from a flower or a stream or a stone. But a human teacher can help - main thing is the guru is not fooled by all the things you do to try to hide and confuse. It’s much easier to pretend to yourself that you’ve found some kind of a realization from a flower or a tree. Not so easy to fool yourself when it’s another human being.
So that’s the idea behind it. But you can’t make this connection happen. And - there’s no hurry for it either. Like, if you are on the path that means you need a guru, you don’t need anyone to tell you, you’ll be urgent to find a guru. But if you are on a slower path, but more steady, well you don’t need a guru. And most people don’t need a guru as a Buddhist. Much like in Christianity most people don’t become priests or ministers, not quite the same but in Tibetan Buddhism, you’d only take on a guru if you are really really into the teachings, and you probably have a long term connection with this person, you evaluate each other for some years beforehand. Typically. Can happen very quickly in some of the stories, in the case of the Indian mahasiddhas sometimes they only met their guru once, short encounter, short teaching, and they then followed what they had been asked to do in a devoted way for years.
Some fun stories there, lots of stories where the student gets it wrong, but also, sometimes the student follows the guru’s instruction very sincerely, realizes the path, becomes enlightened, meets their guru who they thank, and their guru, whose instruction they have been following for all these years, then asks them what the teaching was because they forgot they even gave it. And then the whole thing swings the other way, the former student becomes the guru of their former teacher telling him or her the teachings that they’d been given so many years ago and then come to realize, which their guru as it turned out had never practiced sincerely himself or herself and had forgotten about.
That shows, that the guru is not like an absolute thing. You can’t say that “so and so is a realized teacher, they have deep realization and will lead you all the way”. It depends on your connection. With the right connection, anyone can give you a teaching that can lead you all the way, or even something inanimate can do that like a flower or a stone. It’s like a blessing from enlightenment, that somehow you get a glimpse of truth in that moment that then becomes a key to the path to you.
While the other way around, without that connection, you could encounter a fully enlightened Buddha, and it means nothing to you, such as the first person that met Shakyamuni Buddha after he became enlightened
“Then, bhikkhus, when I had stayed at Uruvelā as long as I chose, I set out to wander by stages to Benares. Between Gayā and the Place of Enlightenment the Ājīvaka Upaka saw me on the road and said: ‘Friend, your faculties are clear, the colour of your skin is pure and bright. Under whom have you gone forth, friend? Who is your teacher? Whose Dhamma do you [171] profess?’ I replied to the Ājīvaka Upaka in stanzas:
‘I am one who has transcended all, a knower of all,
Unsullied among all things, renouncing all,
By craving’s ceasing freed. Having known this all
For myself, to whom should I point as teacher?I have no teacher, and one like me
Exists nowhere in all the world
With all its gods, because I have
No person for my counterpart.I am the Accomplished One in the world,
I am the Teacher Supreme.
I alone am a Fully Enlightened One
Whose fires are quenched and extinguished.I go now to the city of Kāsi
To set in motion the Wheel of Dhamma.
In a world that has become blind
I go to beat the drum of the Deathless.’‘By your claims, friend, you ought to be the Universal Victor.’
‘The victors are those like me
Who have won to destruction of taints.
I have vanquished all evil states,
Therefore, Upaka, I am a victor.’“When this was said, the Ājīvaka Upaka said: ‘May it be so, friend.’ Shaking his head, he took a bypath and departed.
The Middle Length Discourses of the Buddha - Selections
There, you couldn’t really say that Upaka met the Buddha. He met the historical person of the Buddha, but not really the Buddha, didn’t encounter an enlightened being because he didn’t have the right connection.
So also this guru student connection is a natural thing. Many of Buddha’s disciples, according to the sutras, realized the truth very quickly, sometimes they didn’t even need to hear the Buddha speak, sometimes it was enough for a friend or passer by to summarize the essence of the Buddha’s teachings in a single sentence, and the truth arose in their mind / heart.
Anyway - so as I understand it that’s the main purpose of a guru in Tibetan Buddhims. But you don’t have to have a guru. I’ve been a Buddhist in the Tibetan Nyingmapa tradition for 35 years now and I don’t have a guru :).
It just depends and you shouldn’t feel that somehow you are inadequate if you don’t have a guru. It’s just so sad. A sort of peer pressure amongst some Western Buddhists to find yourself a guru, and they either find someone that they fantasize about endlessly is their guru, or they don’t find someone and then they feel inadequate for the rest of their life. That’s like feeling inadequate because you are not a bishop, or something, when there is no reason at all why you would want to be a bishop. Just depends on your path and connections. Maybe you are a particle physicist or a gardener, be a good particle physicist or gardener :).
But there are different kinds of guru. What I’m talking about here is the “root guru” I think it’s called. In a broader sense, the guru is anyone that brings you the message of the path, enlightenment, introduces you to basic ethics, compassion, loving kindness. Helps to give rise to a search for the truth. Anything like that. They are performing the same role as the guru, inspiration that is not you, and that is connecting you to the path and to truth. In that sense most people do have gurus, and normally many of them. They often say conflicting things, but if you connect to the essence of what they are doing, the way they are helping you along the path to seeing truth for yourself, then that itself also helps you to wake up.
And if you really connect to the essence of the dharma, you are never without teachers. The whole of the world is your teacher. Always, all experiences are teaching, leading you along the path, things that are difficult, things that are easy, pleasant, unpleasant, it’s all the teaching of the Buddha, or the path to truth or whatever you want to call it. Which is another reason why you don’t really need to search for your guru. Because your guru is right there before you all the time. But sometimes for some people you find that for a while it is good to have a particular human being that all this otherness and the wisdom of just being other than you focuses down to one person. You can’t make that happen, you don’t need it to happen, but it may happen to some people, and it’s great for them when it does happen, though also awkward, embarrassing, makes them as if their most tenderest parts are exposed to view (in a good way) - that’s the Tibetan Buddhist idea of a guru as I’ve had it explained to me. Hopefully this gives some idea, I’m sure it’s clumsy, talking about things I don’t really understand but have had explained to me vividly.
There’s a range of views here. It all depends on the authenticity of the Pali canon. If they are authentic then they include an explanation of how we come to have them and why they were accurate.
Th...
(more)There’s a range of views here. It all depends on the authenticity of the Pali canon. If they are authentic then they include an explanation of how we come to have them and why they were accurate.
The scriptures themselves include an account of how they were preserved. They say that they were written down during the first great council shortly after Buddha died. In a society without writing, memorization was very important. The Hindu Vedas were memorized word for word by the Brahmins priest caste. That’s agreed by everyone.
If the sutras are authentic, they say that the monks started to memorize his teachings while he was still alive. They started to do that when the leader of the Jains died. There was disagreement amongst his disciples about what his teachings were. This happened while Buddha was old but still alive. Buddha’s disciples noticed that and didn’t want the same thing to happen to Buddha’s teachings when he died, and so started to memorize them while he was still alive and also to check their understanding with Buddha himself.
This can be done, as we know from the Vedas. But the Brahmin priest caste in ancient India was trained from a young age to memorize their scriptures in a culture without writing in Northern India. (Many places had writing by 500 BC but Northern India didn’t until a century or two after the death of Buddha).
The main question then is, did the Buddhist monks, without a Brahmin caste, manage to achieve that same level of accuracy. It’s certainly possible. Some of them of course were Brahmins before they became monks. It says in the sutras, internal evidence again, that some of them were especially good at memorizing the teachings. And it’s humanly possible: some Buddhists to this day have memorized the entire Pali canon, word for word. It’s difficult, takes a lot of study, but can be done.
If you want a bit more detail (what I said above is a very quick summary), see Recovering the Buddha’s Message by Richard Gombrich
(Please note,I don’t have a thorough understanding of the sutras themselves. They are very extensive, a whole encylcopedia in size, and you’d probably be a Buddhist scholar, devoted your life to their study, to read them all. It’s not like Christianity, say, where a keen Christian may have read the entire Bible - a keen Buddhist is very unlikely to have read the entire canon, unless they are a scholar. I’m relying here on what Buddhist scholars say who present the case for the theory of authenticity).
So, what’s the evidence that it actually happened like that? Well quite good. The canon describe a particular geography (several small kingdoms) + a particular level of technology. This is only valid for a short period of the Indian history. Within a few decades after Buddha died, the sutras would no longer describe the political geography accurately. And the technology changed quite rapidly also.
There are many other lines of evidence supporting the “theory of authenticity”, but for me that’s one of the most impressive. For a detailed account of this evidence for their authenticity, plus many other lines of evidence, see The Authenticity of the Early Buddhist Texts by Bhikkhu Sujato and Bhikkhu Brahmali
I think that’s pretty good evidence. Even if they wanted to insert new material, they wouldn’t have enough understanding of history and archaeology to do it consistently with the world in the sutras. There are some later ones but the scholars can tell easily which they are.
Scholars who think this way include Wynne, Payutto, Sujatto, and you can also count Gombrich of course, as I just mentioned. He thinks that due to the large corpus of texts, there must have been communities of monks and nuns that specialised in memorising particular sections of the canon from an early stage, as is known to have happened at a later date in Ceylon.ory.
These scholars all make it clear that it’s not like a transcript. The sutras are clearly organized to be easy to remember, and understand, as compositions rather than transcriptions.
Also, the early teachings in his life must be by memory from after the event as it was late in his life that they started memorizing them. His birth stories and youth would be memorized decades after they happened. And they saw things differently from us and wouldn’t be approaching it with ideas of science and modern history. But I think that what we have in the canon is what the great council recorded after he died, pretty much word for word, and probably has the teachings of the Buddha and the actual words of the Buddha,and with the central teachings in it also reviewed by checking it with the Buddha himself while alive. Then their memories checked by reciting together in unison after he died, which would show up discrepancies if anyone got just a single word wrong.
If this is true we know a lot about Buddha. His early life, the four sights etc, seems a bit implausible, that it happened exactly like that. Could you reach adulthood and never encounter even sickness? Or old age? And in India at the time, to reach adulthood and never see a dead person? It’s a story that speaks to us, strikes a chord but might not be exactly as it happened. But by the time it was recorded, this was a history that few people alive would remember since Buddha himself lived to a great old age for his time.
In some ways memorizing helps with accuracy. When there’s writing, you can get copying errors, it all depends on the accuracy of a single scribe. Less so when memorized in a culture without writing with a great deal of importance to faithful word for word accurate memory, and based on reciting the texts in unison to check the accuracy of their memory.
So, I happen to think that we know a lot about Buddha, not just that he existed, but many details of the teachings and quite probably actual words of his teachings and actual events of his life story.
Scholars cover the full spectrum of views from those who think the earliest sutras in the Pali Canon are preserved word for word, through agnosticism, to those who think that most of the canon was written after Buddha died. I happen to think that the ones who support the theory of authenticity are right.
The later Mahayana sutras are clearly composed at a much later date, starting about 500 years after Buddha died. I think all scholars agree there.
That includes many famous sutras e.g. the heart sutra. There’s an idea in Tibetan Buddhism of hidden teachings that can be hidden in the landscape or in the mind and recovered centuries later, and so they could be termas in that sense if you think that’s possible - or preserved just from one teacher to the next but never written down, or they involve new ideas and discoveries. After all Buddha taught us to see for ourselves and in some traditions of Buddhism new teachings can arise appropriate for the times at any later date, that are thought to have the same inspiration of enlightenment. Including e..g Zen Buddhism with its stories and koans and there are similar things in Tibetan Buddhism. So - the mahayana sutras are a bit like that, inspiration of enlightenment, but not preserved word for word from the time of the Buddha and don’t desvribe this consistent political and scientific world of the time of the Buddha.
Sources:
For the full range of views on the topic, the wikipedia article on Pāli Canon is good.
Note that wikipedia is very patchy on this topic, indeed on Buddhism generally. It has some excellent articles on Buddhism, and others that are very poor indeed.
The Pāli Canon article I just linked to is good. But many of the wikipedia articles on core concepts in Buddhism only mention the theory according to which Buddha didn’t even teach the four noble truths, and present that as a scholarly consensus. It’s one view of many. You’d never guess that from reading those articles. They are edited by a group of editors who are convinced of the theory of inauthenticity and think everything else written on the topic is unreliable. What on wikipedia is called a :Tag team - at least that’s how it seems to me.
I’ve tried to get them to fix this, along with other inaccuracies, but failed and indeed am now topic banned from wikipedia for six months from mentioning the four noble truths on its talk pages - I’m sure the ban would also include a ban on me mentioning the theory of authenticity according to which Buddha taught the four noble truths. It’s something of a relief actually to be out of that crazy hall of mirrors :). For the issues with their four noble truths article, why I think it is seriously inaccurate, see my : Buddhist sources on the Four Noble Truths
If the theory of authenticity is right, then the Pali canon teachings are amongst the most accurately preserved of any of the ancient religious teachings apart from the Vedas of course. And may be preserved as accurately as the Vedas, and some ancient philosophical texts like the texts of Plato and Aristotle.
Note, should say, the Vedas are not sacred texts for Buddhists. Buddha didn’t say they are wrong either, for a short summary: Guide To Buddhism A To Z. Buddhist teachers don’t use them at all, will only mention them to say that they are not sacred texts for Buddhists.
Perhaps the connection between the Vedas and Buddhism is a bit like that between Plato and Aristotle. Perhaps you could go as far as to say that Aristotle wouldn’t have developed his ideas if it wasn’t for Plato. But his works don’t quote from Plato and he follows a different line in his philosophy, and it would be very wrong indeed to use the Platonic forms or many of the other main ideas from Plato to expound ideas from Aristotle’s work.
For more on why the teachings preserved in the Pali canon may be authentic see
I’d say yes in the sense that it has kinship with other dogs. Unless of course brought up to imprint on humans. When it meets other dogs, it recognizes them as being the same species, not in an int...
(more)I’d say yes in the sense that it has kinship with other dogs. Unless of course brought up to imprint on humans. When it meets other dogs, it recognizes them as being the same species, not in an intellectual sense of course, but of heightened importance for it.
But not aware in the sense of being able to recognize itself in a mirror. So yes, and no.
In this video, the puppy may not know that the “dog” in the mirror is itself, but it might recognize it as being a dog - though a rather odd one with no scent. See how its tail is wagging and it’s in the submissive posture that young puppies use when they want to play with other members of their own species :).
BTW I think the mirror test could sometimes be misleading. After all dogs rely so much on scent, more so than vision perhaps, and the dog in the mirror doesn’t have any mirrored scent. I don’t know what test a self aware dog would come up with, but if it involved requiring high fidelity reproduction of scent in some kind of a “scent mirror” and they didn’t bother to include any visuals, as unimportant, we might fail it :). By a “scent mirror” there I mean one that was high fidelity in spatial resolution, probably, scents located in 3D space like an identical dog to itself, the other side of the “mirror”.
I don’t know if anyone has tried some kind of a “scent mirror” for dogs? Just a thought in passing. Maybe they would still fail the test if you could do that.
See also Gerhard Adam's answer to Does my dog know he is a dog?
UPDATE: Just found out from Maciej Wyszpolski about this - dogs passing the mirror test with scent, not sure it is quite the same as a “scent mirror” - just ignores its own scent but interesting:
He talks about this in his book “No dream is too high”. They didn’t know what it was and knowing about UFO enthusiasts would be listening, decided not to tell Mission Control until they got back (i...
(more)He talks about this in his book “No dream is too high”. They didn’t know what it was and knowing about UFO enthusiasts would be listening, decided not to tell Mission Control until they got back (if I remember right).
There were two main options. It could have been the final stage. But they figured out that the final stage was too far away for them to see it at that point.
So probably it was one of the four panels that got released during a maneuver they had just done. They would normally just fly away into space and get lost. But one of them probably somehow got into a trajectory similar enough to their spacecraft for them to see it. I can’t find it right now, but was reading the book yesterday. If I can find it I’ll do a quote here about it with more details.
From my own experience, also from what I’ve read about it, animals don’t understand punishment, they can’t make that connection. The two events would seem unrelated. For instance if your dog tends ...
(more)From my own experience, also from what I’ve read about it, animals don’t understand punishment, they can’t make that connection. The two events would seem unrelated. For instance if your dog tends to run away on a walk and you then shout at it in an angry way when it comes back, it can’t make that connection to deduce that you are angry with it for going so far away. Instead it will think (rather bewildered) that you are angry with it for coming back. So will stay away longer next time probably.
They just have a more immediate way of looking at things. Very short deduction spans. Long memories, it’s not like they are stupid really, fast reactions, good senses, very aware of the world, but just don’t see it in this complicated way that we do where you chain things together which are separated even by a few minutes and think one could be a punishment for the other.
In the case of the dog that runs away, then even though you want to get angry with it for staying away for so long, it is just too late for that. You’d have to get its attention somehow and communicate that you are angry with it somehow when it was a long way away, which is hard to do.
So, you have to just encourage it and say “good dog”, give it a treat etc, because what it just did, come back to you, is what you want to encourage. The running away is ancient history for it, in a way. I suppose that’s a way to think about it. It’s like, if you did something last week, and then this week long after it was over, someone got very angry with you, then unless they told you (and you can’t tell a dog) you’d never make that connection. For the dog, it’s like running away happened last week, it remembers doing it (I expect so anyway, after all they dream like we do and do have good memories) but doesn’t see the connection.
It was too late, there was nothing really you could do any more to communicate to the cat that the chicken was out of bounds for it, not once it was over and done.
There are many ways to deflect an asteroid. It depends on its size, and its orbit.
The main ones are
There are many ways to deflect an asteroid. It depends on its size, and its orbit.
The main ones are
Luckily there is no realistic chance of a really large asteroid hitting Earth. You can tell by the cratering record, because there are no impact craters that big for over 3 billion years anywhere in the inner solar system, on Mars, the Moon, moons of Mars, Earth, Mercury and what we have of the history of Venus. I’ll add this to my answer, just forgot to say it. The reason seems to be that Jupiter protects us from large objects beyond Jupiter, and the asteroid belt is stable enough - there are chances of changes of orbit there long term but nothing in the future few million years.
So the asteroid would be at most 10 kilometers or so in size. And actually, we have already found all the ten kilometer scale NEOs, it’s possible that there’s a ten kilometer scale object currently way beyond Jupiter - and that would be the largest one that we could be hit by on a decade timescale. The chance of this is tiny though, 99.99999% certain we won’t be hit by such a large asteroid in the next century (now that we know 100% of the NEO ten kilometer scale asteroids and none are headed our way).
Smaller asteroids are more common, so a 100 meter or so asteroid or smaller is the most likely scenario by far. Far more likely to predict one of those first, indeed many of those, before we get a kilometer scale asteroid.
For more details see the deflection section of my Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them and the other sections for things like the largest asteroid that could hit us.
It’s also available on kindle as
Giant Asteroid Is Headed Your Way? : How We Can Detect and Deflect Them (Amazon)
There’s a very similar question here: Is going to Mars the right choice? I don’t know if they should be merged, meanwhile here is my answer from that question. In short I agree, this is where to go...
(more)There’s a very similar question here: Is going to Mars the right choice? I don’t know if they should be merged, meanwhile here is my answer from that question. In short I agree, this is where to go right now. And that where we go next could be Mars orbit, but it could also be the Venus upper atmosphere, asteroids, Jupiter’s Callisto. That if we develop the ability to live in space for years at a time on the Moon then the whole of the solar system will open out to us and we won’t need to be focused on humans to Mars as the only option.
I think the Moon is by far the best place to send humans right now, in other words the approach that ESA and Russia are following. I'll be on David Livingston's The SpaceShow on 27th May to present this approach: The Space Show - news letter
This is my executive summary (I cover each point in detail in Case For Moon - New Positive Future For Humans In Space - Open Ended With Planetary Protection At Its Heart ):
The Moon is our nearest unexplored territory outside Earth. To ignore it is like ignoring Antarctica after the first few landings in the nineteenth century. Why rush humans as quickly as possible to distant Mars, the one place in the inner solar system most vulnerable to Earth microbes?
The Moon in this vision is a gateway to the solar system, a place to develop new techniques and explore a celestial body that is proving much more interesting than expected. Along the way, we are bound to get human outposts in space, and colonization may happen also.
However, settlement in space doesn't need to be the driving force behind our space exploration, any more than it is the driving force behind the study and exploration of Antarctica. If we try to turn Mars and other places in space into the closest possible imitations of Earth as quickly as possible, this may close off other futures, like the discovery of some vulnerable form of early life on Mars, or better future ways to transform Mars. Whether we attempt this in the future is something best discussed once we have a better understanding of Mars, and our solar system.
For more on this, see my Case For Moon - Positive Future For Humans In Space - Open Ended With Planetary Protection at its Heart (free oline version, currently the most up to date, working on it today).
You can also read it as: Case For Moon - New Positive Future For Humans In Space - Open Ended With Planetary Protection At Its Heart as an article on my Science20 blog, also available online in book format and as a kindle booklet on Amazon.
If you are interested in this approach, you might be interested in the new facebook group: Case for Moon - Open Ended with Planetary Protection at its Core
No, it doesn’t have to be a life long commitment, and yes, it is very easy to return to lay life if you choose to do so.
A monk in any of the Buddhist traditions who wants to return to the lay life,...
(more)No, it doesn’t have to be a life long commitment, and yes, it is very easy to return to lay life if you choose to do so.
A monk in any of the Buddhist traditions who wants to return to the lay life, even a fully ordained monk, not just someone who has taken their novice vows, just has to say to someone, just about anyone, that they give back the robes, and that’s it done. They don’t have to say this to their preceptor (who conducted the ceremony when they took the vows). They don’t even have to say it to a Buddhist. They can say it to anyone at all of sound mind, who can understand what they are saying.
And there might be many reasons for doing that. It might not just be that they find it difficult to keep the vows.
Maybe they find it easy to keep the vows, but circumstances have changed and they feel the lay person’s life is the direction to go now. A bodhisattva, for instance, could do that because they feel that they can help others more as a lay person than as a monk or nun.
So there is no reason at all either to feel that a monk is a failure if he gives back his vows (or same for a nun).
Rather the way it’s understood is that they have done something positive by keeping the monk’s or nun’s vows for whatever length of time they did. And now that phase of their life is over and they are doing something else.
In some countries it is normal for young people to take the monks or nuns vows for a short period, a few weeks, maybe 14 days, or a month, say, and then hand them back. They take the vows, knowing that they will hand them back two weeks or a month later. And this also is seen as a very postive thing to do.
It is just a matter of things that you do that have beneficial effects on you. On a simple level, suppose you climb to the top of a mountain and then see a wonderful view. You enjoyed the view, but...
(more)It is just a matter of things that you do that have beneficial effects on you. On a simple level, suppose you climb to the top of a mountain and then see a wonderful view. You enjoyed the view, but only were able to do that because you climbed the mountain. So climbing the mountain had a positive effect for you, so in a simple and immediate way, it gave you good fortune. Perhaps also climbing mountains helps you to maintain physical health. This is all karma - karma simply is cause and effect, and some of the effects of your actions are immediate and obvious like that. Sometimes they are harmful, you may pull a muscle, or twist an ankle while climbing a mountain. And most are neutral.
So in Buddhist teaching, there is no external deity to judge you. The physical world doesn’t judge you either. So punya is not a reward from anyone else. It’s just an effect of your actions.
So then there’s the idea that our actions have much longer term effects than you realize.
For instance, if you tell the truth, wherever possible, that helps you to have a clearer view on things, to understand the truth. If you are often deceitful, and deceiving to harm others, you may be more easily deceived by others too. Or may get so you have so many different stories you tell other people that you kind of lose track of what is the truth. Each time you tell a lie, then for a moment, just a fraction of a second, you yourself believe that lie, to tell it convincingly.
If you are frequently angry, this may change your perception of the world and your reactions to it. Everything becomes sharp edged. Your default understanding of almost any situation you find yourself in is to see those who disagree with you as enemies, as antagonists. You lose the ability to understand them, to see where they are coming from and to realize they are people like you, or that their views may change, or that your views of them may change. It’s like everything is frozen into place and permanently sharp edged and harmful to you.
While if you help others, open out to them, understand them, try to build bridges, then things change in the other direction.
So - that’s again quite easy to see. But the idea is that there are other much more subtle and hard to see effects of our actions, and some are harmful and some are beneficial.
But it’s not like a “tit for tat”, nobody else is giving you these rewards of your action. And what happens depends on your actions, but also actions of others, accidents in this world and so on.
The idea of punya, or merit is something often misunderstood and distorted. Especially that idea of "transfer of merit".
As I was taught at least, it’s not like a kind of “gold star” that someone gives you, which you can pass on to someone else. It’s not like that at all.
E.g. if you happen to have a healthy body in this lifetime, that good fortune would be a result of previous actions according to the teachings. So it’s the result of past punya, the ripening of past punya. But how could you give your good health to a friend who is suffering from cancer?
If you climb a mountain and your friend doesn’t, how can you give your experience of the view from the top of the mountain to your friend? (Except as a photo of course or a description of it).
You could start the climb saying that you dedicate all the punya that comes from climbing that mountain, all positive effects that it has whatever they are, to your friend. You can do that with anything you do. But still, how could that transfer your view you got at the summit to them? Or transfer the health effects on your body to them? If you can’t do that, how could you transfer the more subtle effects to them either?
What you can do though is to have a wish that they experience any good fortune you experience.
And can do practical things to help them. It is very like Christian ideas of praying for other people's good fortune. Except without any idea that there is a God to step in and do anything about it. Many Christians also don’t think that God is literally going to answer their prayer with a miracle, but rather that by praying to God, there’s some kind of blessing comes back to help in their situation.
It's like that with Buddhists too, at least as I was taught. Dedicating the good results of what you do to all beings, and taking the negative effects on yourself.
It transforms what you did in your mind right away, you have the motive before your action to help all beings - or try to anyway - you are training to do that, if you have chosen to follow the aspiring bodhisattva path. Then you do the action, and then you dedicate it afterwards to all beings. Even if you made many mistakes, still, thinking about it this way, it transforms it somehow.
Even though it is mainly just words at that stage, the idea is that gradually this is going to transform your motivation and approach and help you to act out of loving kindness and compassion, and also not just that, but a less blinkered, and wiser, loving kindness and compassion.
You can of course help others directly. If someone is hurt, to help heal them. If they are upset, to console them. Do things that make them happy. You’ve got good fortune, and you can use it to help others.
It’s like the quote from Merchant in Venice:
“The quality of mercy is not strain'd,
It droppeth as the gentle rain from heaven
Upon the place beneath. It is twice blest:
It blesseth him that gives and him that takes.'Tis mightiest in the mightiest. It becomes
The thronèd monarch better than his crown.“His scepter shows the force of temporal power,
The attribute to awe and majesty
Wherein doth sit the dread and fear of kings,“But mercy is above this sceptered sway.
It is enthronèd in the hearts of kings.
It is an attribute to God himself.”
Apart from the mention of God of course, that’s very like the Buddhist idea of punya, of blessings that stream from good actions, for yourself and others.
And those blessings are unlimited, go on and on. So when you ask how you measure it - well you can’t, it’s immeasurable. Especially if actions are done with the aim of helping all beings, towards whatever is happiness for them, and away from whatever causes them suffering and harm. If you have that motivation, in its purest form, then the simplest of actions, giving someone a glass of water perhaps, can have immeasurable benefits, rippling on and on for ever.
That’s how I was taught, and so, I find it strange when I learnt, just today, that some Buddhists talk about merit as if it was some kind of a coinage that you can give to others, limited in scope, that you can give such and such a percent of it away or whatever.
I haven’t had any teachings on such ideas so I can’t really say more except that they puzzle me. Though I have lots of questions I could ask someone who thinks like that. How is it supposed to work? What do you transfer? How does making a wish or prayer make it possible to transfer it (remember there is nobody else in Buddhism that you can pray to, to do this transfer for you)? Does it somehow bypass cause and effect, and if so how? Can you climb a mountain, and then somehow someone else sees the view at the top and experiences the physical health benefits of climbing a mountain instead of you? How is it compatible with the sutras - even though it apparently has a sutra cite, how is that compatible with other sutras? If you know more about this do say, in comments or as another answer.
Trungpa Rinoche wrote a whole book about the traps of trying to accumulate benefits along a spiritual path, in his "Cutting through spiritual materialsim" i.e. drawing attention to the many tendencies a practitioner can fall into leading a life based on cultivating spiritual accomplishments as a sort of material possession.
It’s related to this question also I think. Amazon.co.uk: Chogyam Trungpa, Sakyong Mipham: 9781570629570: Books
Well not sure you’d call them tenets. But many would say the most central teachings of Buddhism are the four noble truths.
To understand these you need to know what “dukkha” means. It’s often transl...
(more)Well not sure you’d call them tenets. But many would say the most central teachings of Buddhism are the four noble truths.
To understand these you need to know what “dukkha” means. It’s often translated as “suffering” but also as unsatisfactoriness, anxiety, stress. But, though those are all examples of dukkha, none of them are really good as translation. We don’t really have a word corresponding to dukkha in English.
That’s because it also includes unblemished but transitory happines! Even if you are happy without a cloud on the horizon for years on end - you aren’t suffering, no anxiety, no stress, nothing like that, but it still counts as “dukkha” because you haven’t established a happiness that will last for ever. So, even though you may not see it that way at all, you haven’t solved all your problems for all time, and haven’t achieved a permanent state of happiness, so in that sense it is “unsatisfactory”. It doesn’t mean at all that you have to be miserable or feel that any happiness you experience is inadequate. But just to recognize that it has this temporary nature to it and that it’s not a true happy ever after.
So with that background, then the four truths are
These are not tenets though. No point in taking them on trust. They are things to investigate and which you may eventually come to see for yourself.
I think it’s best to just send you on to Walpola Rahula’s book “What the Buddha Taught” to explain those truths in detail, if you are intersted to find out more. He was a renowned scholar, expert in the Pali Canon, the early Buddhist sutras, and this book is one of the most highly regarded books on Therevadhan Buddhism in modern times.
The Four Noble Truths - Walpola Rahula: What the Buddha Taught
He taught many other things, and then more things are attributed to him in the more recent “Mahayana sutras” written about half a millenium after his death. These are accepted as “canon” by the Mahayana schools of Buddhism. While the Therevadhans accept only the earliest teachings as canon.
But this teaching is central to all the schools of Buddhism. And the interesting thing about it is that unlike most religions, there is no need at all to affirm any creed.
So that makes it hard to answer a question about “what are the main tenets”. Buddha taught many things, but none of them were tenets, there is nothing you have to accept on faith because he said so, or because any other sacred text said so. There is nothing you have to recite to say “I believe in …” as you may be required to do, for instance as a Christian.
All that is required to follow the Buddhist path is an open mind, and a faith that these four truths are worth investigating.
Sometimes people will say you have to believe in rebirth to practice as a Buddhist, but that’s not true. Though he gave many teachings on rebirth, he made it clear that there is no need, or even value in affirming belief in things you can’t see for yourself. And few of us are able to see rebirth through our own direct experience. So you are not required to believe this as a Buddhist :). It does help though to have an open mind about what happens when you die. Because if you decide “when I die that’s it” that’s affirming a belief too, cutting off various possibilities as things you won’t even look at. As a Buddhist, following the path to truth, then it’s best to have an open mind about what happens when you die, or indeed about what happened before you were conceived, or anything else that you don’t know directly and clearly from your own direct experience.
There’s a ceremony you can take part in during which you affirm to the world that you are now a following the path of the Buddha. Which you may have been doing already, but now you make a strong personal commitment to the path.
Unlike most such ceremonies in other religions, you are not required to assert that you believe anything to “become a Buddhist”. Instead you commit to following a path of open discovery. You commit yourself to opening out to truth, whatever it is. And, it doesn’t mean you become a perfect person. You just are following a path, and made your first steps onto a path.
Trungpa Rinpoche wrote about this:
“If we adopt a prefabricated religion that tells us exactly the best way to do everything, it is as though that religion provides a complete home with wall-to-wall carpeting. We get completely spoiled. We don’t have to put out any effort or energy, so our dedication and devotion have no fiber. We wind up complaining because we didn’t get the deluxe toilet tissue that we used to get. So at this point, rather than walking into a nicely prepared hotel or luxurious house, we are starting from the primitive level. We have to figure out how we are going to build our city and how we are going to relate with our comrades who are doing the same thing.
“We have to work with the sense of sacredness and richness and the magical aspect of our experience. And this has to be done on the level of our everyday existence, which is a personal level, an extremely personal level. There are no scapegoats. When you take refuge you become responsible to yourself as a follower of the dharma. You are isolating yourself from the rest of your world in the sense that the world is not going to help you any more; it is no longer regarded as a source of salvation. It is just a mirage, maya. It might mock you, play music for you, and dance for you, but nevertheless the path and the inspiration of the path are up to you. You have to do it. And the meaning of taking refuge is that you are going to do it. You commit yourself as a refugee to yourself, no longer thinking that some divine principle that exists in the holy law or holy scriptures is going to save you. It is very personal. You experience a sense of loneliness, aloneness—a sense that there is no savior, no help. But at the same time there is a sense of belonging: you belong to a tradition of loneliness where people work together.”
…“You take refuge in the Buddha not as a savior—not with the feeling that you have found something to make you secure—but as an example, as someone you can emulate. He is an example of an ordinary human being who saw through the deceptions of life, both on the ordinary and spiritual levels.”
,,,
Then we take refuge in the teachings of the Buddha, the dharma. We take refuge in the dharma as path. In this way we find that everything in our life situation is a constant process of learning and discovery. We do not regard some things as secular and some things as sacred, but everything is regarded as truth—which is the definition of dharma. Dharma is also passionlessness, which in this case means not grasping, holding on, or trying to possess—it means non-aggression…” The Decision to Become a Buddhist
Well first, you could fill a crater, or cover the surface with a breathable liquid. Can Humans Breathe Liquid? Though I’m not sure if this is quite feasible and safe yet. Also, apart from ionic flu...
(more)Well first, you could fill a crater, or cover the surface with a breathable liquid. Can Humans Breathe Liquid? Though I’m not sure if this is quite feasible and safe yet. Also, apart from ionic fluids (which have a very low vapour pressure, proposed for liquid mirror telescopes on the Moon), even high molecular weight fluids evaporate in a vacuum. So you’d need to cover it with something to keep the liquid from evaporating. It might be a fun idea to explore in science fiction.
However, with light gases oxygen and nitrogen such as we have on Earth, it is possible to give the Moon an Earth pressure atmosphere temporarily. It depends how long you want it to last.
A thin atmosphere vanishes quickly, on the order of a year or two, through the impact of particles from the solar wind blowing it away.
But a thick atmosphere could last much longer, because the upper atmosphere protects the lower atmosphere. This is from: An Atmosphere for the Moon
Here are a few rough calculations based on the figures there:
Only about 10^8 kg a year would be carried away by the solar wind. The Moon has a surface area of 3.79 million square kilometers, or 3.79*10^12 square meters. At ten tons per square meter, that would weigh 3.79*10^16 kg.
So, losing 10^8 kg a year, it would last for nearly four million years before it is all completely gone. It would take 100,000 years to lose a tenth of the atmosphere.
That’s an atmosphere with a sixth of the Earth’s pressure in the lower lunar gravity. For full Earth pressure 1 bar you’d need six times as much, 60 tons of material per square meter, and it would take 600,000 years to lose a tent of its atmosphere.
The original paper he refers to here is by Richard Vondrak et al, and is from the 1970s. See Page 342. He calculates that it would be possible to create a breathable atmosphere on the Moon with similar surface density to Earth and that it would not reach up too high out of the Moon’s gravity well to be stable ,but it would have to mass 10^18 kg. The escape rate would be 60 kg / second, so that would be about 1.9*10^9 kg per year. so an atmosphere as massive as that, if it could be created somehow, would last for many millions of years, even tens or hundreds of millions potentially. (Note he also wrote this, Creation of an artificial lunar atmosphere but it’s behind a paywall for me)
So, a lunar atmosphere like Earth is not so impossible as you might think, it would at least last for a fair while before it loses it. It is possible enough to need a bit more study.
Nick Hoekzema, a scientist from the Max Plank institute suggests that a near future developed lunar industry mining lunar rocks for metals could easily produce 10^9 to 10^10 kilograms of oxygen a year. So could keep up with the loss from solar winds, indeed would continue to thicken the atmosphere. An Atmosphere for the Moon
Artist's impression of a terraformed Moon
Here is a concept video of a terraformed Moon.
There are many problems to address. The surface is so dry, but also the rocks not at all hydrated, so if you added water as well, you’d get many chemical reactions with them. And it also has pure iron and other materials only partly oxidized. So it would absorb more oxygen than there is in the Earth’s atmosphere before it stabilized. If there was water, it would react with the rock creating an alkali ocean with a pH of about 10 or 11. And the reactions would cause the rocks to expand, causing probably strong quakes for thousands of years.
Also the current vacuum is a valuable asset. We might find the Moon is more valuable as a place close to Earth, easily accessible, with very high levels of vacuum readily available. Air Pollution on the Moon
On the other hand a tiny atmosphere on the Moon, e.g. produced by exploding 1% of the US arsenal of nuclear weapons, would be enough to stop micrometeorites, which might be an advantage. See this article by Nick Hoekzema a scientist from the Max Plank institute: An Atmosphere for the Moon
Then also, at least to start with, the Moon is of great scientific interest as is. Surely we want to explore the ice at its poles, the caves, etc in the current vacuum conditions first, just to see what’s there and how it works as it is now, also to study the preserved record of the solar system in the ice cores, which may go back billions of years and to study processes in the surface layers from solar wind etc.
But as we find out more about it maybe we’d decide it is okay to transform it?
Also, just to mention this, there’s the issue of - what if the future Moon loses technology? Again this could make a fun science fiction story - a half million years into the future Moon with no technology but intelligent creatures adapted biologically to less and less oxygen, but eventually, not able to prevent their eventual extinction.
Or, if it lasts for millions of years by continually replenishing the atmosphere, what happens on those longer timescales if eventually the civilization that created it loses technology?
I don’t know how likely it is on short timescales (more likely if there is time for new creatures to evolve e.g. intelligent but without hands). But something you’d need to think about if guiding our Moon it into a new future like that.
As an easier alternative, humans could live in caves, or domed cities or you could cover the entire lunar surface with a “greenhouse” - in segments to deal with major asteroid impacts on the Moon, called paraterraforming. This is something we could do right away, and would encounter some of the issues such as the effects of Earth atmosphere on the lunar soil and rocks, at an early stage in this way, as surely something you could deal with on such a small scale as a domed city or cave.
See for instance this artist’s concept image of a paraterraformed Phobos (much smaller moon of Mars): Paraterraformed Phobos
See also Can we terraform the moon? If yes, how difficult is it? Is it possible with the current technology, and what are the major challenges might we face while terraforming? (here on quora)
How Do We Terraform The Moon? - Universe Today
Can We Terraform the Moon? A Second Home, Next Door?
Gregory Benford’s A Terraformed Moon Would Be an Awful Lot Like Florida
Oh, and you might be interested in our facebook group:
Case for Moon for Humans - Open Ended with Planetary Protection at its Core
and my article Case For Moon - New Positive Future For Humans In Space - Open Ended With Planetary Protection At Its Heart
I don’t think it would be much use for searching for it. For this you need a very sensitive camera, which the JWT is. But you also need a large field of view.
They are searching using Subaru, an 8.2...
(more)I don’t think it would be much use for searching for it. For this you need a very sensitive camera, which the JWT is. But you also need a large field of view.
They are searching using Subaru, an 8.2 meter optical-infrared telescope in Hawaii.
JWT is 6.5 meters in diameter, so Subaru gathers 60% more light. But the main thing is the field of view. Subaru has a field of view of 1.5 degrees, so three times the diameter of the Moon. SUBARU
By comparison JWT has a field of view of 1.25' x 1.88' - that’s arc minutes. There are 60 arc minutes in a degree. That’s large compared to Hubble, which has a field of view measured in arc seconds, but small compared to Subaru.
So, it’s just not designed for the kind of large scale searches needed here. It would be sensitive enough, but you’d build it differently if you wanted a wide field instrument like Subaru. For instance, Subaru is a Ritchey–Chrétien telescope which is especially designed to have clear images off axis over a very wide field of view.
Horses for courses. You can do searches of this nature with space telescopes, and there are ideas for wide field space telescopes to search for Near Earth Asteroids, for instance. And the WISE telescope is an example of a quite small space telescope, only 0.5 meters in diameter, that was optimized for wide field imaging, and gives the tightest constraints we have on this new planet X (before the Subaru searches complete):
Artist's impression of the Wide Field Infrared Survey Explorer which has produced the tightest constraints to date on Planet X.
But James Webb is not designed for this task, as it is optimized for a tiny field of view to look very close at particular things in space, like Hubble.
It would however be useful for looking at new planets and dwarf planets in our solar system once found, like Hubble.
Also by the time it launches, we may have found this planet already (if it exists).
See also my Why This New "Planet X" Is No Threat To Earth :).
Also, just to register a token “protest” here about the name. Of course it’s natural to use it, as it has been taken up by the press and everyone calls it this. But I hope we find a better name than this at some point!
When has any planet been called by a number? Is Earth “planet 3”? And it also is a name that would change depending on changes on how you define planets, or on whether we find any other planets closer than this very distant one (well possible) and indeed, on whether it is a planet at all (it is a rather borderline “planet” by current definitions if it exists).
And I think it’s at least possible that some future meeting of the IAU could change the definition of a planet and include what we now call “dwarf planets” as a planet, or do something to change the current rather odd situation where a “dwarf” of a planet doesn’t itself count as a planet.
Especially, the current definition could get very awkward if we find objects on the borderline between a “planet” and a “dwarf planet” where some of the proposed measures of how it clears its orbit say it is a planet, some say it is not, and others just can’t decide the question without more observations. I think it’s at least possible we do find objects like that eventually. And it would be a very awkward situation to just not be able to say if some newly discovered large object in the outer reaches of our solar system is a planet or not. That could even happen with this new Planet X if it turns out to be a bit smaller than expected (as happened with Pluto). Maybe like Pluto just a coincidence that it is found as a result of a thorough search astronomers wouldn’t have done otherwise, or that it is only part of the explanation of the disturbed orbits that led to its discovery.
See Would New Planet X Clear Its Orbit? - And Any Better Name Than "Planet Nine"?
Yes certainly.
The Guinness Book of Records of 1985 records the feat of a Buddhist monk who was first to memorize the entire Pali Canon in modern times:
He was able to memorize the entire canon - thousands of pages, millions of words. He was first in modern times to win the titles Tipitakadhara Dhammabhandagarika (Bearer of the Three Pitakas and Keeper of the Dhamma Treasure), in a stringent 33 day exam.
We also have texts far more ancient than the sutras memorized in the same way - the Indian Vedas.
In a culture with no writing, there would be a premium on memorization. And on doing so accurately, and passing on those memories, word for word perfect, for generation after generation.
The texts are structured in ways to help with memorization. But still, that's millions of words.
Nowadays we can write things down, so don't have to do this. But still have actors who often have to memorize long conversations for plays, or films. For instance, it's not considered an extraordinary thing for a Shakespearian actor to learn their character's lines for an entire Shakespeare play.
Most of us never have to do this so don't realize what we are capable of, if we try.
As another example, musicians can memorize every note of their part, say as a solo in a concerto, for an entire piece of music. And not just one. A musician will often have many entire pieces memorized, dozens or hundreds of them.
As well as that, some composers have a much better memory for a piece of music after listening to it than most, just after one hearing. There are stories about Mozart suggesting he had near perfect memory for music, especially his transcription of Gregorio Allegri's "Miserere" in the Sistine Chapel as a 14-year-old (which at the time was kept secret, nobody was permitted to publish it outside of the chapel). He only heard it twice, live, and based on that wrote the first unauthorized transcription of it.
No. If you think about it, if it was as easy as that, then Mars would have been terraformed long ago.
The background to this is that it used to be thought that Mars has enough CO2 in the form of dry...
(more)No. If you think about it, if it was as easy as that, then Mars would have been terraformed long ago.
The background to this is that it used to be thought that Mars has enough CO2 in the form of dry ice to cause a runaway greenhouse effect. To do that, you would first have to release enough to increase the atmospheric pressure to 10% of Earth's - i.e. ten times what it is now. After that it would then go into a runaway feedback situation until all the CO2 is in the atmosphere.
Obviously this has never happened or Mars would be in that state right now.
But also, it's not at all clear that it has that much CO2. It does have enough to double the atmospheric pressure, but that would not be a stable situation and it could only be maintained like that by continual manufacture of greenhouse gases on a global scale, or large planet sized thin film mirrors.
In addition, Mars is so far from the sun compared to Earth that if you could give it an Earth-like atmosphere of nitrogen and oxygen with just trace amounts of CO2, it would be too cold for trees to grow. Even with a pure CO2 atmosphere, poisonous to humans, it would be too cold for trees, even in the tropical regions, without additional greenhouse gases.
And by greenhouse gases - that means mining cubic kilometers of fluorite ore every century and using hundreds of full scale nuclear power stations to process it. It's a mega project though perhaps not quite as mega as the planet scale thin film mirrors idea.
And it has very little by way of water as well. And the equatorial regions are dry to considerable depth. It did have oceans in the past but nobody yet is sure what happened to the water. Many now think that it lost most of its early water into space through solar storms.
which I wrote up in much more detail as: Why Nukes Can't Terraform Mars - Pack Less Punch Than A Comet Collision
There are many other issues with terraforming Mars. As I summarized it recently:
"Terraforming Mars is a far off dream. We are not yet at the right state of maturity as a civilization to see this thousands of years long megatechnology project through to completion. And failed attempts would introduce new lifeforms to Mars which may get in the way of future approaches."
It's interesting intellectually with many ideas to explore. Understanding possibilities for terraforming could help us understand how Earth itself works and understanding exoplanets etc. But I think we are nowhere near the stage where it would be a wise move to attempt it ourselves.
No, not at all. The tests of the young child are just to check that he is a continuation from the previous Dalai Lama, not a test of intelligence.
The current Dalai Lama had academic leanings from ...
(more)No, not at all. The tests of the young child are just to check that he is a continuation from the previous Dalai Lama, not a test of intelligence.
The current Dalai Lama had academic leanings from a young age and impressed everyone with his answers in his Geshe exam as a young man and has continued on that path since then. So, he is very learned in Tibetan Buddhism. He is also quick at understanding topics in modern science and often involved in dialogs with scientists.
While - he's not especially good at spoken languages obviously - even after decades of speaking English, there are many Tibetan lamas who are far more fluent in English than he is.
A Dalai Lama is not at all expected to be perfect :). Like anyone else they are individuals with strengths and weaknesses, and the current Dalai Lama is strong in this area.
With this example, it's understandable to think that a Dalai Lama has to have this level of understanding of Tibetan Buddhism (I don't know whether he is the most learned of all but certainly has a reputation of being very learned on the subject).
But a previous Dalai Lama, the sixth Dalai Lama, was a poet, who had many romances and his poetry is loved by Tibetans to this day, I'm told. Sort of the Tibetan "William Blake". From this you can see also that the Dalai Lama doesn't have to be a monk. He refused to receive full ordination and instead gave back his novice vows when it reached the point where he was expected to become a monk.
The short life and tragic death of the 6th ("playboy") Dalai Lama
And some of the poems attributed to him, translated into English
Stallion On A Frozen Lake: Love Songs Of The Sixth Dalai Lama
The sixth Dalai Lama died at a very young age, age 24.
So it's not necessary. And when asked whether he will have a successor, then the Dalai Lama says it is depends on the circumstances at the time of his death, and is up to the Tibetan people, and jokes that now, with a quite popular Dalai Lama, might be a good time to end this centuries long tradition, in case the next one is a "stupid Dalai Lama" who disgraces himself or herself :).
Yes, as a planet spins faster and faster, then first it becomes an oblate spheroid like this
(that's exaggerated compared to our planets though - none of our planets are flattened as much as this)
Th...
(more)Yes, as a planet spins faster and faster, then first it becomes an oblate spheroid like this
(that's exaggerated compared to our planets though - none of our planets are flattened as much as this)
That's approximately what happens with Earth - it's somewhat flattened at its poles, though only by 21 kilometers, see Reference ellipsoid.
But as it rotates faster and faster, eventually the prolate spheroid, or more generally, a triaxial ellipsoid is preferred. Jacobi proved that surprising result in 1841.
The mathematician Jacobi, who predicted that rapidly spinning planets could take the form of triaxial ellipsoids in 1834
So, if a planet rotates very quickly, it will look this - this is an artist's impression of a dwarf planet that was found in the Kuiper belt,around 50 times further from the sun than Earth, in 2004:
Haumea: Rugby Ball Planet - artist's impression
This is the shape of a triaxial ellipsoid:
Here is an artist's rendition of Haumea rotating showing its distinctive red spot:
It has a day only four hours long, and is 1,920 × 1,540 × 990 km
Then, there's another possibility too. Though we don't know any planets like this, there are many contact binary asteroids and comets, which are roughly dumbell shaped. For instance comet 67p which Rosetta and Philae visited.
They don't have enough gravity to be rounded like a planet. But you could have the same for planets. You could in principle even have an Earth sized planet almost touching our Earth - even with a shared atmosphere and ocean.
(Image NASA) 'Double Earths' Could Be Fun Exoplanets To Hunt For -- If They Existsee: Can binary terrestrial planets exist?
This is explored fictionally in Robert Forward's "Rocheworld" which is an "overcontact binary"
And in principle a planet spinning at just the right rate could have three, or four lobes, and it could also be donut shaped. Nothing has yet been observed resembling this, but theoretically it's possible.
For more on this: How and why are planets spherical? What makes them round?
I wrote it up for my Science20 blog as So You Thought You Knew What Spinning Planets Look Like? ... Surprising Shapes Of Rapidly Spinning Planets
It's also one of the sections in my kindle book
Simple Questions - Surprising Answers - In Astronomy, Robert Walker - Amazon.com
I think the Moon is by far the best place to send humans right now, in other words the approach that ESA and Russia are following. I'll be on David Livingston's The SpaceShow on 27th May to present...
(more)I think the Moon is by far the best place to send humans right now, in other words the approach that ESA and Russia are following. I'll be on David Livingston's The SpaceShow on 27th May to present this approach: The Space Show - news letter
This is my executive summary (I cover each point in detail in Case For Moon - New Positive Future For Humans In Space - Open Ended With Planetary Protection At Its Heart ):
The Moon is our nearest unexplored territory outside Earth. To ignore it is like ignoring Antarctica after the first few landings in the nineteenth century. Why rush humans as quickly as possible to distant Mars, the one place in the inner solar system most vulnerable to Earth microbes?
The Moon in this vision is a gateway to the solar system, a place to develop new techniques and explore a celestial body that is proving much more interesting than expected. Along the way, we are bound to get human outposts in space, and colonization may happen also.
However, settlement in space doesn't need to be the driving force behind our space exploration, any more than it is the driving force behind the study and exploration of Antarctica. If we try to turn Mars and other places in space into the closest possible imitations of Earth as quickly as possible, this may close off other futures, like the discovery of some vulnerable form of early life on Mars, or better future ways to transform Mars. Whether we attempt this in the future is something best discussed once we have a better understanding of Mars, and our solar system.
For more on this, see my Case For Moon - Positive Future For Humans In Space - Open Ended With Planetary Protection at its Heart (free oline version, currently the most up to date, working on it today).
You can also read it as: Case For Moon - New Positive Future For Humans In Space - Open Ended With Planetary Protection At Its Heart as an article on my Science20 blog, also available online in book format and as a kindle booklet on Amazon.
If you are interested in this approach, you might be interested in the new facebook group: Case for Moon - Open Ended with Planetary Protection at its Core
Well depends on whether you are Hindu or Buddhist I think (or indeed Jain or any other religion that has this idea). I can only answer from the Buddhist perspective.
According to Buddhist teaching, ...
(more)Well depends on whether you are Hindu or Buddhist I think (or indeed Jain or any other religion that has this idea). I can only answer from the Buddhist perspective.
According to Buddhist teaching, you can't really, as we have countless past good and bad karma. We can add to both. The bad karma can only be got rid of by exhausting it, experiencing the harmful effects. Which is a process that can never end as there are vast amounts of both bad and good karma from the past.
Except perhaps in some tantric traditions in Tibetan Buddhism where they claim to be able to purify your past karma. But I don't understand the details of that. So won't talk about that.
As ordinarily understood, e.g. in Therevadhan traditions and most Mahayana traditions, then Buddhists don't aim to get rid of all their past negative karma, or to balance it with good karma. I think that's more a Hindu idea.
The good karma is useful though because it helps you to a more stable situation. It can also lead to some temporary pleasure in Samsara and there is nothing wrong with that either. The lowest aim you can have in the Buddhist teaching is to aim to have a more fortunate life in the future, and more stability and happiness in this present life. Although considered "lower" it is still more than most do, and it is considered a worthwhile thing to do.
After all if you have compassion and loving kindness, you aim to help others to find a way out of suffering and to find happiness, so you'll rejoice if they find some fortunate state in Samsara even if this is just temporary relief for them.
But even good karma in this sense still binds you to Samsara, to the cycle of repeated birth, old age, sickness and death and all the other forms of unsatisfactoriness, that our "happy ever after" somehow never quite lasts for ever.
Then also if you can find some stability, then there's a chance of connecting to teachings, either by teachers, or indeed you can also get teachings from the natural world, and also in ways that are hard to explain, for instance from contemplating a Zen koan, or from the experience of the pure nature of compassion or wisdom and other good qualities (rather like the experiences in various mystic traditions in different religions).
The four noble truths are about a path to cessation of suffering and unsatisfactoriness.
The third truth is the path to cessation which is presented as the noble eightfold path. That's mainly to do with creating some stability so that you can then have a chance to see the truth for yourself, directly. In the mahayana traditions they may focus instead on cultivating the paramitas or boundless qualities such as loving kindness, compassion, etc.
Once you have stability, then the path is gradually dawning understanding and awareness. To do with continually relating to the truth of whatever situation you are in, not blinkering yourself with illusions. And then finally you see all the way through the deepest illusion and confusion. Which according to Buddha's teaching is something to do with attachment to views of a self that are not in accord with the reality of what we are and how we are.
And though hard to spot, according to these teachings, it's also in some ways the most obvious thing there is, It is hard to spot because it is so obvious and familiar that we no longer notice it.
When you see the truth of your situation, then he taught, you then reach cessation of suffering. Right away.
What that means is hard to understand intellectually. After all he still got old, and experienced sickness, and eventually died. In what sense had he realized cessation of suffering and unsatisfactoriness as a young man?
Anyway he said you need to see this truth for yourself. So that's the path. And realization of cessation can happen in this very life, and is not a heaven state that you enter when you die. There is no idea of heaven in Buddhism - there are ideas of more fortunate rebirths, which may be in states where you are blissfully happy for trillions of years, but if such rebirths exist, they are still just part of samsara, temporary states, which you eventually fall back out of. So even they are not a "happy ever after".
That is why just accumulating positive karma does not free you from samsara in Buddhist teaching. It's worth doing, and you will do it anyway as you develop clearer understanding of your situation. Being more open, compassionate, showing loving kindness etc all tempered with wisdom in the Mahayana traditions, or being less focused on yourself, and open to every situation you meet in the Therevadhan approach - all that will accumulate good karma, and help others also to accumulate good karma. But that's considered a lesser aim in the Buddhist path because of this idea that there is no "happy ever after" that truly lasts for ever in samsara and that accumulating positive karma is not a permanent solution, and indeed, is yet another thing to bind you to samsara even though binding you to happy future states.
MINIMAL EXPERIENCE OF PAST KARMA
Also just to add, though as normally understood (I don't know about the esoteric tantric traditions), you can't purify past karma without experiencing it, you can often experience it in a minimal way. And you can also stop minor effects of past bad karma from blowing up into a major thing.
For instance if I get hurt by something, say stung in your leg and the sting goes septic - that's a result of past karma that I'm born in a body that is vulnerable to harm like this. (In Buddhist teaching then it's not "tit for tat" where e.g. a mosquito bites you on the nose, that means that you bit it on its nose in the past. It's much more intricate than that and also depends on present day decisions by yourself and others too).
But you can go to a doctor and get that damage to your leg healed. Maybe he or she will prescribe a course of antibiotics, for instance. Or whatever it is they do in that situation. Or you can just not tell anyone and it gets worse and worse, maybe when you finally go to a doctor, your leg needs to be amputated.
Similarly if you get irritated by something (again something that results from past karma, that you find it irritating), you can either let yourself get more and more angry until you are in a full rage about it, or you can just let it pass, related to it as best you can, and it may come to nothing much.
If you go into the details here it is very intricate and complex however. It's said to be far harder to understand the interdependence of beings and conditions than it is to begin to see through the attachments you make to false ideas of a self.
IMPOSSIBLE TO ELIMINATE PAST KARMA IN THIS LIFE
I think it’s reasonably obvious that you can’t eliminate all effects of past karma in this lifetime. Amongst those effects are this body itself. It’s vulnerable to harm from trauma, from heat or cold, lack of oxygen, chemicals, many other hazards. It’s also subject to sickness, old age and death.
If you could remove all the effects of past karma in this lifetime, your body would have to be invulnerable to any harm whatsoever.
Even Buddha got old, experienced sickness and death after his enlightenment.
So becoming enlightened doesn’t mean you eliminate all effects of past karma.
But you do transform them. After he was enlightened, then his past interactions with other beings became the thing that made it possible for Buddha to interact with others and teach them for another 45 years. It is what made it possible for him to continue to have a human body after enlightenment.
In the traditions like Tibetan Buddhism that talk about emanation bodies and Buddhas able to reincarnate multiple times after enlightenment, even many times at once, again those physical, human, emanation bodies are due to past interactions they had with other humans before they became enlightened.
What you actually call it after enlightenment I’m not sure, again maybe someone here can elaborate, but it’s the enlightened version of karma. Basically, interdependence.
So, I think that’s true even in the esoteric teachings in Tibetan Buddhism. They do talk about purifying past karma. But I think it may be more like a transformation than actually removing it. But don’t want to say more about that, maybe others who know more about that can elaborate.
Mars is unlikely to be a pit stop in the near future, because of the deep gravity well.
Its moons could be though, espccially Deimos as it is a type of asteroid that may contain volatiles such as wa...
(more)Mars is unlikely to be a pit stop in the near future, because of the deep gravity well.
Its moons could be though, espccially Deimos as it is a type of asteroid that may contain volatiles such as water ice. It could even be used to supply water to LEO,
Though now we know that there are probably volatiles at the lunar poles, then our Moon is a more likely "pit stop".
Still, in a future with rapid space transport, you could imagine stopping off at Deimos.
Any spaceship that goes through the asteroid belt would also go past the asteroids. But - if you go from Earth and boost out past Mars, say to Jupiter, then you will be going pretty fast when you pass Mars and also when you pass the asteroids. Stopping to take on fuel or water would be as much a handicap as an asset.
More likely would be some other system.
So, let's think about how it could work?
WAYS TO USE A MOON OR ASTEROID AS A PITSTOP AS YOU FLY PAST IN A SPACESHIP
Perhaps the supply station on the asteroid or moon would launch specialized supply rockets that would rendezvous with you as you go zipping past, using a lot of the fuel they contain to match velocity with you, transfer fuel then the now much lighter supply rocket returns to its base.
A spinning asteroid could have a tether attached to it, which could be used for very efficient boosting to high speeds. Basically turn a small amount of the spinning angular momentum of the asteroid into delta v to intercept the passing spaceship.
Then as before deliver fuel, and now the supply vessel is much lighter so easier for it to return to base using whatever is left of the volatiles.
I've not seen this suggested before, but it sounds like it could work.
USING ASTEROIDS AND MOONS FOR "FLYBY" TYPE BOOSTS, EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE FAR TOO SMALL FOR THEIR GRAVITY TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE
Incidentally someone proposed a neat way a spaceship could use an asteroid for a course correction. As it goes by, it fires a flexible tether with a grappling hook attached. This catches on the asteroid, and then the tug on the tether causes the spaceship to change direction, Then the spaceship releases the grapple and reels in what is left of the tether ready to repeat the process next time it passes an asteroid. That way you could do zig-zagging paths through the asteroids, or use them for flyby accelerations and decelerations using the orbital motion of the asteroid, much like you do for flybys of planets. I can't remember where I saw the paper, but it's a fun idea :).
Ejecting is possible. It's now thought that solar systems often start with too many planets and they both spiral inwards and outwards due to interactions with each other and the dust and gas cloud ...
(more)Ejecting is possible. It's now thought that solar systems often start with too many planets and they both spiral inwards and outwards due to interactions with each other and the dust and gas cloud of the forming solar system, and some of them may get ejected. Not that many, much fewer of these "rogue planets" than stars.
As for capture, that's very difficult, for a planet (easy for something smaller like a comet).
The first problem is that there are so few rogue planets, and to be captured they would have to come within the system of planets of another star, and the chance of that is tiny. Even stars rarely get that close to other stars.
Then after that, well the planet comes in with escape velocity, for the solar system, so will just depart from it again after a flyby of the star to change its direction.
You need a mechanism for it to lose that velocity. It could do it by a close flyby of a planet, but that would be an even more of a coincidence. Then also that might well make it only a temporary planet - after one such flyby it could have others which might eject it from the solar system again. Or deflect it to hit the star or one of the planets.
You could do it by friction, capture in gas clouds, lose its escape velocity, perhaps if planets escape stars in stellar nurseries they could be captured by other stars in the same forming cluster? But do it too soon, with still lots of dust and gas, and the planet would just lose so much delta v it would spiral into the star.
If there's a fair bit of gas and dust but it's already breaking up into planets, then you can imagine an incoming rogue planet, at the right angle, getting caught by one of those rings of dust and gas perhaps, and it could only spiral in as far as the inner edge of the ring.
You could also do it with a moon - if the planet has a moon and does a flyby which leads to it losing its moon, then the escaping moon could remove some of its delta v, so it could end up in an orbit it can only escape from by recapturing its moon, make it so the moon reaches escape velocity and it can never recapture it.
So - that's just qualitative arguments to give it a bit of a context. Would be interesting to know if anyone has done a proper study of this.
If it can be done. it must be a very rare event. Perhaps easiest in stellar nurseries because the stars are then close together?
He lives life at the edge of risk / danger, and has come close to failure several times. See also What has Elon Musk failed at? The early SpaceX launch failures could have ended the company if it h...
(more)He lives life at the edge of risk / danger, and has come close to failure several times. See also What has Elon Musk failed at? The early SpaceX launch failures could have ended the company if it had failed a fourth time after three previous failures. He went personally broke in 2008. Billionaire Elon Musk calls 2008 ‘worst year’ of his life
He has a good record of pulling his companies out of difficulties that come from this risk taking approach - but a record that is also based on luck, as if that fourth SpaceX launch had failed, then the company would not exist today.
You could say it is "solid" in the sense that he doesn't give up easily in situations that would have stopped most people. And so far, luck has been with him.
HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT
SpaceX I think is now here to stay. But I'm not sure that he will definitely achieve human spaceflight. It's another risk. Human spaceflight is far more difficult to achieve than unmanned spaceflight. He is doing it in unconventional ways. His plans seem good but there have been issues. Particularly, failure of launch of a Falcon rocket due to failure of a component that passed quality tests but was not up to the mark. Of course he has addressed that issue - and that particular failure would not have killed the crew - as they would have been able to escape in a system that was not included on that unmanned launch.
But the underlying issue is relevant. Yes, his quality assurance is good enough for unmanned flights which can sustain a failure every few launches. But is it good enough for crewed flights? Is his plan to re-use the boosters also one that is acceptable- how reliable will the reused boosters be? Are there any safety issues in reusing the boosters?
The biggest issue with human spaceflight is that each test flight is so expensive. You can't do many flights with test pilots before you need to send paying customers to pay back the development costs.
He does have advantages there, that he is using unmanned flights to test many systems for human spaceflight; even using the same module the crew would fly in for unmanned spaceflights to the ISS. And experts say his design is good.
But even including those, it will still be numerically not that many flights before the first paying human spaceflight. It will certainly not be as reliable as a plane or a car. Will it be as reliable as the Soyuz TMA? Or will it only be as reliable as the Space Shuttle, which everyone thought was very reliable until it crashed; and same happened twice; each time the general public had high perceptions of reliability of the Space Shuttle - more than it actually had.
He does have interesting ideas for a Mars landing - supersonic retropropulsion without parachutes. If it works it could increase the payload that can be delivered to the surface quite a lot. But again he hasn't tested it yet; this is for the future. The Mars surface is probably the toughest place to land in the inner solar system out of Mercury, Venus, Mars, Earth, our Moon, and the asteroids and the moons of Mars.
(Just a note there about Venus: surviving after landing is hard, but landing is technically easy as you can use parachutes, if you go to the surface,. While "landing" in the upper atmosphere of Venus for a floating balloon or aerostat or "cloud colony" outpost is probably one of the easiest landings in our solar system with no hard surface to land on, and takes you to a place with conditions in some ways closest to Earth of anywhere in the solar system),
This also is a risk, though his ideas seem good ones.
As for his ideas for a 100 people at a time in a Mars colonial transporter, this is not yet a concrete plan - so nobody can comment on it until he unveils it this autumn. And his plan for a city of a million on Mars by 2100 seems very ambitious.
It's because he is tackling something tremendously challenging of course. I wish him well! But I think you can't say that it will work.
It's a high stakes thing he is doing. He is someone who lives on the edge and goes into things where stakes are high and there is a definite possibility of failure.
When an enterpreneur goes right to the edge of what is possible, failure is something that can happen. So I'm not criticising him at all here. Just saying that this is the situation.
COLONIZING MARS
In the case of Mars colonization also, I think the very idea of colonizing is mistaken.
We don't colonize the sea floor or even floating sea cities, far easier to build than space colonies.
Indeed the only places we colonize in a self sufficient way, or nearly so, are all places that could have been colonized with stone age technology - and indeed, most of them previously were inhabited by humans using stone age technology.
We have outposts in places like Antarctica that stone age man couldn't possibly have survived in. But they are supported by a many to one ratio of people in more easily inhabited places who build the machines for them, grow their food, mine things, get their education, bring children to maturity etc. Even hospitals are built in other places - not in Antarctica. If you had some major medical issue you would be flown out.
So, I just don't see it, space colonies. Not until our technology is so advanced that you can build a floating sea city that sustains itself using just the atmosphere, the sea water and a few rocks, probably most of that automated, with a large population (say 10,000) who don't need much of anything except what the city provides for them from the sea and the air. That's surely technologically feasible at some point in the future but we aren't there yet. And that would be much easier to do than a similarly self sustaining space colony anywhere outside of Earth in our solar system.
It is possible in the near future, I think, to have a "materially self sustaining" outpost - one that produces most of its own fuel, and food, and gets all its oxygen from food. This is a big advantage over a space station that can't do this.
But - first the target of producing all its own air - that's not really so impressive when you think in terms of colonization, since outposts on Earth don't need to do this at all. And producing all your own food - yes that's a significant milestone. But there is a lot more to it than that. Because you would be living in a high technology environment difficult to maintain.
At some point, maybe, we can build big city domes and Stanford torus type habitats in space. Maybe they can be made self sustaining. If so we can also build similar habitats on the Earth.
And - it could be that research into this in space leads us to technology to do the same on Earth, so reducing impact here, for humans living on Earth.
I'm all for researching into this, but I think it is far too soon to say "yes we know how to do this" and to set off on a big project based on the assumption that we can already do it or will definitely be able to do it x years into the future.
PLANETARY PROTECTION
There are also issues of planetary protection for Mars. We want to find out about life there, whether there was a separate origin, or whether it evolved differently there, or whether perhaps it didn't evolve there at all. It is easy to find life in habitable places if you bring it yourself. The issue arises with Mars because of recent discoveries of potentially habitable places there. Just a few seeps of liquid, but even so, if these exist and are habitable, what we find from any lifeforms that may live in them could revolutionize biology - and potentially that means implications also for medicine, nanotechnology, even new industrial materials based on non Earth biology. That's what I call a "Super positive" outcome. We don't know how likely that is but we shouldn't do things that could impact on something so positive on the basis of just not knowing if there is anything there to harm with our introduced Earth microbes.
Introducing microbes to Mars would create anew geological era there, of a Mars with Earth life on it. This could also interfere with other plans for the future if we decide to transform Mars. E.g. perhaps you do want to transform Mars in some way (not necessarily terraforming) but your plans involve introducing oxygen producing cyanobacteria first. Then previous microbes introduced as ~"hitchhikers" without a plan could make these new plans impossible to achieve.
E.g. aerobes that eat the oxygen, or methanogens that produce methane instead, or secondary producers that eat the cyanobacteria - all of those could make those plans impossible to implement. The thing is that microbes can form very resistant long lived spores or resting states. So as well as any microbes that find a habitat that they can reproduce in, you'd also have these spores which could survive even millions of years if they get into some sheltered place like a cave on Mars. So after a human landing, these would be present on Mars, and can also be spread in the global duststorms - and seems unlikely it would ever be practical to remove undesired microbial spores from an entire planet.
Could be many other issues.We just don't know what the effect would be of introducing Earth microbes to another planet -have never done it before. And we don't have lots of Mars planets to experiment with. If there are others like Mars in our galaxy - there may well be - they orbit other stars light years way and are not places we can visit easily.
CASE FOR MOON
I think we should use a more measured and open discovery based approach. And the Moon is the obvious next destination, not Mars, for humans.It's turned out to be much more interesting, both for science, and for human resources, than ever suspected in the 1960s and 1970s.
It could even be of commercial value for Earth or at least for spacecraft in LEO, something an outpost on Mars is never likely to achieve. And a place where we can learn what the role is for humans in space, and what we can do and what robots do better, in a place where you can get back to Earth or resupply from Earth within two days in an emergency.
Sending spacecraft to Mars is like setting off on a six month voyage in a ship with no lifeboats, and worse than that, as it is a minimum of two years (for most trajectories), at very minimum, 500 days, to get back, if you get something go wrong perhaps just on the first leg as you are leaving Earth. So it's like setting out on a long sea voyage,without a lifeboat, and where you are immediately 50o days of voyage away from land as soon as you get out of the harbour, as you wave goodbye to home. And a voyage where you can't breathe the air but have to bring all your air with you.
It's possible in principle. But it's so risky, we have to demonstrate these capabilities closer to Earth I think, and do so in long duration multi-year missions. Elon Musk so far is only addressing the payload problem, not the human factors and closed system problem.
Then once we either have faster spacecraft or a lot more experience with long duration space missions closer to Earth - humans in Mars orbit, exploring it via telepresence as this has no planetary protection issues if done carefully.
But not just Mars. It's a big solar system. Jupiter's Callisto. Larger asteroids Ceres and Vesta. Mercury. Venus clouds. Creating habitats in free space using materials from the asteroid belt.
Why just "Mars Mars Mars"? Mars is of great interest. But it is only rather superficially like Earth. It's got almost no atmosphere for a starter, can't breathe the air, and far colder. It would be a completely ice covered body like Antarctica if it wasn't that it also has hardly any water - the apparent Earth desert like landscape is because of extreme aridity.
It gets so cold at night, even in equatorial regions, that dry ice sublimes out of the atmosphere for 200 days of the year (combined with ice - this subliming dry ice is what creates the morning frosts on Mars in equatorial regions).
It is nowhere near what most people would call habitable. You certainly wouldn't call such a place habitable if it was somewhere on Earth, say at the top of a very high mountain or plateau, far higher than Mount Everest. Stone-age man wouldn't last long enough to take a breath, on Mars.
For more on this
Case for Moon - New Positive Future for Humans in Space with Planetary Protection at its Heart
Which I've also made into a kindle booklet
Also, see the facebook group: Case for Moon - Open Ended with Planetary Protection at its Core
Yes, many, first was Helium. It was discovered during an eclipse in 1868 as a spectral line in the sun's radiation which hadn't been observed on Earth with any known elements.
Quoting from Wikipedia...
(more)Yes, many, first was Helium. It was discovered during an eclipse in 1868 as a spectral line in the sun's radiation which hadn't been observed on Earth with any known elements.
Quoting from Wikipedia, which seems to be okay on this topic:
Helium is named for the Greek god of the Sun, Helios. It was first detected as an unknown yellow spectral line signature in sunlight during a solar eclipse in 1868 by French astronomer Jules Janssen. Janssen is jointly credited with detecting the element along with Norman Lockyer. Jannsen observed during the solar eclipse of 1868 while Lockyer observed from Britain. Lockyer was the first to propose that the line was due to a new element, which he named. The formal discovery of the element was made in 1895 by two Swedish chemists, Per Teodor Cleve and Nils Abraham Langlet, who found helium emanating from the uranium ore cleveite
Then there's the discovery of pulsars on November 28, 1967, by Jocelyn Bell Burnell and Antony Hewish which turned out to be neutron stars.
This showed that you can have stars that are so compact they can't be made of ordinary matter and must consist of Neutronium
There may also be Strange matter at the heart of neutron stars.
This is not detected directly but theorists consider them to explain phenomena found in space.
There's also indirect evidence for Dark matter through astronomical observations, for instance the velocity / distance curve for stars orbiting in a galaxy, though this is not actual detection.
I'm sure there are many more.
As well as that, there are unexpected phenomena in space. For instance the Martian dry ice geysers
NASA Findings Suggest Jets Bursting From Martian Ice Cap (artist's impression)
Nobody predicted them as far as I know, and there is nothing like this on Earth. Triton similarly had nitrogen geysers
File:Voyager 2 Triton 14bg r90ccw colorized.jpg
There are many other phenomena like that which occur on other planets or moons that just can't happen on Earth naturally and may be hard to reproduce in a laboratory. And quite often we discover these phenomena without predicting them first.
Scientists also find new minerals in space, example Scientists Find New Type of Mineral in Historic Meteorite announcing the discovery of a mineral Wassonite consisting of crystal structure of Titanium and Sulfur, never found in nature before. I don't know if it was previously created artificially on Earth or not.
Also some minerals only occur in space, or in meteorites, e.g. Maskelynite a glassy phase only found in meteorites, created by micrometeorite impacts.
And if you look at details of the composition of rocks, isotope ratios, ratios of various elements in minerals, you find many subtle differences even between the Moon and Earth, because of the different conditions in which the rocks formed, see http://www.lpi.usra.edu/publicat...
You also get materials that form in space because the conditions are difficult to duplicate on Earth. E.g. many different forms of ice, that you get when it is very cold, under high pressure, etc. They can be duplicated in labs on Earth, some with a lot of difficulty, but most of these phases of ice don't form naturally anywhere on Earth.
I think we may well discover many new minerals in space as we continue to explore it, also unusual phenomena and phases of materials that occur on Earth.
First, this is just optional. And - the path of seeking the truth for yourself, and to find a way out of the suffering of conditioned existence for yourself is still something wonderful. If you do ...
(more)First, this is just optional. And - the path of seeking the truth for yourself, and to find a way out of the suffering of conditioned existence for yourself is still something wonderful. If you do that - then you become less of a nuisance to the world, come to help others, compassionate towards others, loving kindness etc anyway because those barriers we have harm ourselves as much as others. So your actions may be much the same whether you are motivated to reach enlightenment yourself, or motivated to help all beings reach enlightenment. And the end point is the same. Eventually if you follow the path of an arhat, you realize non self, then you eventually also become Buddha also.
After all if you really and truly realize non self - how can you make a separation and say that it is "you" who has realized non self, and somehow others have not? At it's most subtle level, then as your understanding and realization deepens, you find that everyone is Buddha. Also insects, animals, birds. Even inanimate things like stones somehow carry the message of enlightenment, everything you see is a pure land in this sense, although you wouldn't in Buddhist context say they are enlightened beings.
But some may be inspired to the bodhisatva path at an early stage.
And it's something that has to come from your heart. Though you can aspire to it and that's the first step, when you take the bodhisattva vows if you do that, in the Mahayana traditions, it's not like instantly you put others before yourself, have only ever compassion and loving kindness etc etc :). If only it was that easy :).
It's an aspiration to start with. Which goes through many stages before it first becomes unshakeable - like that there's no way you'd ever not be a bodhisattva in the future even sickness, suffering, Alzheimers, forget all the teachings =you ever learnt, maybe reborn as an animal, or insect, whatever happens in this life and through all future lifetimes, it's so fundamental to your orientation in life that everything is somehow motivated in this way. It is possible to reach that point, at least the stories say so. But we start off at a much simpler stage, where you just aspire to help others.
And there are three kinds of bodhisattva, as I was taught (not sure of the sutra sources etc). You can't choose which kind you'll be. It depends on the situation and all are good.
The first is a king bodhisattva, who aspires to help all beings, but realizes they are not able to do so, so they first work on themselves, maybe in retreats in caves, maybe in other ways, meditating, or it could be through working on their own conduct, restraining from the harmful conduct like lying, stealing, killing, sexual misonduct, intoxicants that may lead you to do all the other things. So you can do this just to help yourself. But you can also do it because you realize that for as long as you do those things, it seriously handicaps your ability to help others. So whatever it may be, at that crude level of working on basic morality because you've got into habits that make it really hard to do anything without continually hurting others - or developing compassion, love, wisdom, seeing through illusions that confuse you, learning to relate directly to truth - you may work on all this mainly in yourself, but with the aim to help others.
The second is the ferryman bodhisattva. Who has the same understanding that they need to work on themselves, but they also realize that others need to work on themselves, very strongly and are able to relate to that in such a way that while they are following the path, they also help everyone around them to do that also. So they also may be doing atrocious things, maybe you are a gang member beating people up and killing people - but you find a way to the dharma, and then - as you do so, you find that it's not just you making this journey but all your fellow gang members also. All still doing really bad things as ordinarily understood, but there's something happening there - they are moving in a direction - what matters is not where you are now, but where you are headed. And so - you may find that you are moving along with all beings, everyone you encounter, even people you are not directly connected with - a sense of journeying together along the path.
The third is the shepherd bodhisattva. The idea here is that a shepherd only cares about his or her sheep. And will do anything for them. Don't think about themselves. In this case, you don't care if you are silly, doing bad things according to what everyone expects of you, making endless mistakes, apparently hurting others when you meant to help etc etc. But you just care about others. You may see others developing insight, love, compassion, or whatever, and that's all you care about, that they find their way along the path. You just aren't bothered about what happens to you. This path reaches its extreme in the "mad yogins" of Tibetan Buddhism, who may do the most extraordinary things. They are not following a path to their own enlightenment at all. All they care about is others. They may incidentally become enlightened along the way. But that's not where they are headed at all.
So, many westerners hear about the "mad yogins" and think "that sounds great, I'd like to be one of those". But that's the very worst motivation for it, because you are only thinking about yourself there. You can't follow that path in this way.
And some people might try to imitate them - get drunk, do stupid things, generally forget about the path altogether. This is very dangerous, even in ordinary physical sense you may have accidents, or hurt yourself in many ways. Not at all recommended.
So, you can try to imitate any of these approaches. But it doesn't work. You end up just producing a kind of act, as if you were acting in a play, but with no substance to it.
You have to find your own path. And there's nothing wrong at all with setting out to find enlightenment for yourself. Indeed that's by far the most normal way to begin. And if you do that you are only being honest with yourself. Aspire to the bodhisattva path, maybe even take the bodhisattva vows to give a connection to that path, if you want. But the most important thing is to be truthful to yourself. To see through all those pretences you may make of being a bodhisattva or compassionate being.
But on the other hand, being a bodhisattva is not a difficult thing in a way. All you need is this underlying motivation to help others, as an aspiration. You don't need to be able to turn into a light display, or do extraordinary acts of self sacrifice, or generosity. No need to give everything you have away either - this won't help. You can't give away your clinging to your possessions, and if you give the possessions away you are left worse if anything, without the things you had before, which maybe would have been useful to help both you and others - and with even more clinging than before chances are, immense regret for the things you no longer have.
To be a bodhisattva, an aspiring bodhisattva on the path, all you need is this wish to help all others to happiness and to freedom from suffering in whatever form is right for them. As an aspiration. Even if next moment you get angry with your neighbour or get in a horrible tortuous argument with someone, or are very miserly or whatever it is, still, if you have that aspiration, you are on that path.
For this reason also it is impossible to tell whether someone else is a bodhisattva or not.
And if you follow the bodhisattva path, then yes, even ants have potential to be Buddha.
The easiest way to see this is to think of future potential. The ant has only dim awareness of this world - but in that dim limited awareness, there's all the potential of a Buddha, or so they say in the teachings. Very unlikely to become enlightened as an ant, but - in future when the ant dies - well we don't know what happens when beings die. Maybe it takes rebirth in some other form. So you are relating to that future of the ant. And doing it in a way that sees less division, maybe no division, between its future and the present. So then you can see it as Buddha. Because in the future it is Buddha and that future Buddha is something you can relate to in this present ant.
This is one translation of the word Dukkha but it's actually much more general.
Indeed before he became enlightened, according to the sutras, Buddha learnt to enter states of mind even beyond percep...
(more)This is one translation of the word Dukkha but it's actually much more general.
Indeed before he became enlightened, according to the sutras, Buddha learnt to enter states of mind even beyond perception and non perception, refined states with not a trace of suffering in the ordinary sense.
However having mastered those meditations, and even asked by his second teacher to take over from him as teacher of that meditation technique, he decided that this was not what he was looking for.
The reason is that these refined states were still dependent on conditions. It was believed at the time that even after death, that these refined states would continue, perhaps for immense periods of time, but still, that was not enough. Even if they lasted for many times the age of the universe, with not a trace of suffering at all for all that time, it would not be a final answer to the problem of dukkha - suffering or unsatisfactoriness, because eventually you are still dependent on conditioned existence, impermanent changing things.
So the idea of dukkha is subtle. Life is full of dukkha in this sense, even if you are in a state of bliss and happiness for years on end without any suffering and even without any anxiety and without any problems or worries at all.
And then in the four noble truths he taught that there is a path that leads to cessation of this unsatisfactoriness. Which is basically to do with relating directly to the impermanent and changing nature of things, and also of oneself.
He said that if you do that, then you can come to see a truth that has to be experienced. And once you see that truth, you are then liberated from this dukkha, unsatisfactoriness. Things are still impermanent, you also are continually changing, you will still get old, you will die. And you don't cease to exist at that moment or get displaced into some other realm, or enter a state of blissful meditation cut off from the world, or anything like that. But by relating directly to everything just as it is, yourself also, then you waken up and realize this truth and see through all the causes of dukkha.
Those who choose to follow the path of the Buddha believe that there is such a truth to be seen / experienced / discovered.
Some Buddhists will dedicate their lives to seeing this truth, as the Buddha did. Others though will follow the path in other ways, for instance by practicing generosity, loving kindness, compassion, by restraining their conduct, such as lying, stealing, killing etc and in other ways. These also are ways of relating more directly and authentically with the world and ourselves.
Or they may do acts of devotion, or support the Buddhist monks and nuns in traditional Buddhist countries.
So, it's not at all that all Buddhists are trying to see this truth for themselves, many may not even meditate in their life. But if you are a Buddhist, this is the central idea that you recognize. Not a creed or belief system. But a faith that there is a truth to be discovered of this nature, and one that needs to be experienced directly rather than just understood intellectually. And you don't need to be an intellectual or clever to see it. It's said to be a truth that is blindingly obvious if only one could wake up, that we continually miss this truth because it is so obvious rather than because it is difficult to see. A bit like the way you may miss the largest letters on a map.
For more about this, see The Decision to Become a Buddhist by Trungpa Rinpoche
Well, that's Buddha teaching to the people of his time, and later Buddhists teaching similarly. The Pali Canon also talks about other realms so it's not just in the later Mahayana teachings.
It was ...
(more)Well, that's Buddha teaching to the people of his time, and later Buddhists teaching similarly. The Pali Canon also talks about other realms so it's not just in the later Mahayana teachings.
It was an accepted belief of his time.
As for now, well, you can just believe it just as the Indians did, as other realms of beings with bodies made of light, etc etc as described in the sutras.
Or, well we do have the idea of other realms ourselves in the form of Extra Terrestrials. In the scientific sense of beings that evolve around other stars and with a biology different from us.
We can also see the animal realm and human realm and see that humans are born in different conditions, some suffer greatly and some have a much easier life.
There's also the idea of other "parallel universes" and of higher dimensions and beings that could inhabit space with a different number of dimensions from us. And the idea that the observable universe is only a fragment of the whole. We are limited in our observations by the time since the Big Bang- anything further away than that just hasn't had enough time for its light to get to us yet.
We also see galaxies in the distant past that we know are moving away from us so quickly that in future it will be impossible to see them because they will be beyond the light speed horizon (though nothing can travel through space faster than light, space itself can expand in such a way that parts of it move away from other parts faster than light, and that is the case in our universe according to these observations).
So that also brings up the possibility of other parts of our universe that we can perhaps never find out by ordinary observation. And these parts, according to some ideas, may have different versions of the physical laws.
Then, looking at it another way, then there are states of mind described by yogins, where your mind is so focused and calm that ordinary thought subsides, and you get just pure bliss, unstained, no awareness of any body, you just enter a state of constant bliss, and they describe more refined states that go even beyond that. Buddha attained these states before he became enlightened, and said they are not what he was looking for because they were dependent on conditions and will eventually fade.
So - these pure states are regarded as the highest of the god realms in ordinary conditioned existence in Buddhism. Not highest in the sense that they are enlightened states, Buddhists don't think they are. But highest in the sense that they are just pure bliss, and even more refined states than that.
And there's the idea there that you can enter those states when you die. If so that's not an ordinary rebirth as you have no body, but it's still a form of rebirth because it is dependent on conditions and eventually you'll fall out of this state, even if you remain there for trillions of years. So it is not really a "happy ever after" though it comes as close to it as you can get in conditioned existence (this is according to Buddhist teachings on the subject of course).
Since we have no idea what happens when we die, and there are so many different suggestions there, I see no reason in principle why it couldn't be possible to continue in such a refined state" after death.
And again if you accept that rebirth is a possibility after you die, and if you are willing to go as far as accepting possibility of rebirth as an animal, then you could take that further, and consider rebirth in any form that we can recognize as possible in this universe, and quite possibly many other forms that we can't imagine yet.
So, with this context, I don't see the "supernatural beings" and "other realms" as particularly problematical. Though I think it's possible to look at this from another perspective given our Western upbringing. Buddha taught us in the Kalama sutra that
So - even though the main sutra traditions often go into much elaborate detail about these other realms and the process of rebirth, there is no need to affirm belief in this as a Buddhist. If you do believe it, no problem really, but it's good to acknowledge that this is something you don't know from direct experience (unless of course, you do).
In the Zen tradition, then this aspect of the Buddhist teaching is strongly emphasized, to recognize what we don't know. And though they also do believe in past and future lives, and supernatural beings in this sense also, it's not the main focus at all.
And there are differences between the schools also.
I think the most important thing here is just to maintain an open mind about what happens when you die. If you say "When I die that's it" and you are totally sure of that, no chance at all of any other view - then it makes it hard to follow the path which involves recognizing clearly what you don't know.
But if you have an open mind here, then there's a chance to follow the Buddhist path. As for these "supernatural beings", really I think that's not important what one thinks about that.
The main thing here is the idea that there are many states you can encounter, including blissful ones that last on and on, and states of suffering, that may also go on and on, but that all of those are actually impermanent and part of conditioned existence.
Also, if you think this life is all that there is, then - a solution to the problem of suffering, for yourself anyway, would be to find a way to make sure you remain happy in this life until you die. That's the "psychological treatment" approach to Buddhism. It might be of some help. But one of the signs Buddha saw when he decided to set out to find a way to enlightenment was a corpse, so death is one of the forms of suffering he was looking for a solution to. And the blissful states of mind he learnt to develop before he became enlightened would have permitted him to remain in bliss for the resst of his life. So, if you just treat it as a way to be happy in this life, then you are missing much of the message in the Buddhist teachings.
Some kind of open ended approach to death does seem to be needed to fully grasp what he was teaching. But you don't need to have any specific belief here, don't even need a belief that there is continuation after death, just an open mind about whether there is or not, as something you want to investigate, following the path of Buddha himself, who also investigated this with an open mind.
Well the Moon is the most obvious place. The Russians sent the lunakhod rovers back in the 1970s. Recently, China has already sent a rover there. But things are really going to hot up next year bec...
(more)Well the Moon is the most obvious place. The Russians sent the lunakhod rovers back in the 1970s. Recently, China has already sent a rover there. But things are really going to hot up next year because that's when the Google lunar X prize candidates will be sending their missions to the Moon. This will definitely happen - at least the attempts will happen, because two of the teams already have verified launch deals.
One of the fun ones to look out for is the astrobiotic, which launches to the Moon on a Falcon 9 some time late 2017 for the Lunar X prize will be carrying four rovers - their own, two rovers from the Japanese team and the Chile one - so all of them will be landed simultaneously, and will be in a race on the surface to compete the 500 meters of travel on the surface of the Moon needed to win the Google lunar X prize
So - depends of course, on whether one of the other teams them all to it.
It will also carry (all on the same mission) payloads for the Mexican space agency, and for Lunar Mission One - British company that plans to fly its own lunar lander to the lumar poles later on.
It will carry two Japanese rovers looking like this
and this
Reaching for the Moon: Japan’s Team Hakuto Competes in International Lunar Race
Then it has a chilean rover looking like this
Astrobotic Adds Another Google Lunar X Prize Team to Its Lander - SpaceNews.com
And their own rover
All launched to the Moon on the same rocket, and if they land successfully, and if they get there first, all four of these rovers will be racing to complete 500 meters of travel on the surface of the Moon to collect the multi million dollar prize.
Other strong contenders include Team SpaceIL from Israel, who were first with a verified launch deal
And Team Indus because presumably they have a good chance of support from India with its low cost rocket launches.
And Moon Express
who also have a verified launch deal. X Prize Verifies Moon Express Launch Contract - SpaceNews.com
In all there are 16 teams still left in the competition, though some of these may either drop out or merge with other teams (as has already happened before). Teams
So next year will be an exciting time for lunar rovers. And lunar rover operators on Earth will also be able to control their rovers on the Moon almost in real time, only a couple of seconds delay. And what's more, also can do it with broadband communication, and not restricted to communicating only once a day as is the usual situation on Mars. So - we should see a huge speed up compared with the Martian rovers. The last time this happened was in the 1970s and technology has moved on a lot since then.
The conditions on the Moon are very harsh, if the rovers operate for a long period of time, with very hot days and very cold at night. The Chinese rover stopped working, which shows how hard it is. But the Lunakhod rover worked just fine in the 1970s operating for months on the Moon, which shows it can be done, and surely we'll soon have rovers back there again, operating for months on end, with the amount of interest and enthusiasm there is right now.
I don't know what the rovers will do after they complete their 500 meters, but surely this will be a start of many more rover missions to the Moon.
These are all private space companies - government sponsored rovers are not eligible for the prize.
Then in addition the Moon is turning out to be far more interesting than anyone expected, wiht the ice and volatiles at its poles, signs of recent resurfacing (geologically recent, like millions of years ago) of small areas, possibility of large caves which could be up to 5 or 6 km in diameter in the low gravity, with many cave entrances at least already confirmed. And we really know very little about it, on the surface.
And you have the ESA idea of the lunar village, which would be constructed telerobotically from Earth and then the humans go there only once it is pretty much complete already. So that would involve a lot of rover activity on the Moon to build it, and surely also rover science exploration as well before the humans get there. Including probably early robotic trips there to check out where is the best place to build it.
So the Moon seems to be the place for rovers in the near future.
Then - there's Venus - but it's surface is very hot, and it will be quite a challenge to build a rover to last for long, still it's possible. Also floating aerostats in its atmosphere.
Mercury surely possible but I don't know of any plans to send a rover to it.
There's a plan by the Japanese to send a spacecraft to Deimos and Phobos. Hayabusa 3 and do a sample return from Phobos. It's not really a rover, but it's going to do many close up flybys and then has a lander.
http://www.elsi.jp/ja/research/d...
So anyway Phobos and Deimos are targets too. And you could send rovers to study comets. I don't know of any concrete plans but surely the ESA will have a follow up to Philae lander some time? If so then the natural thing is to send a rover, and one that would possibly get about by hopping from place to place over the surface. Same technique could be used for asteroids.
Then for Jupiter's moons, there was an idea to send a ganymede lander Russia May Land Probe on Jupiter's Moon Ganymede with Europe's JUICE Mission
So that could be done.
You could send them almost anywhere, including Titan - there there's an idea of the Titan Submarine: Exploring the Depths of Kraken
Even Pluto is possible.
There are plenty of places to explore. I do think that we should hold off from sending a lander to Europa or Enceladus though. Because of the risk of water close enough to the surface to be contaminated by the lander. Plus in case of Europa - that there's probably ice movement from the surface down into the ocean, so if you land microbes on the surface, by mistake, and they manage to avoid being fried by Jupiter's radiation (which some at least would do if the electronics remains intact and functioning with present day methods of sterilizing probes), then there's a big risk there that you end up just finding the life you brought there yourself. And perhaps even making some vulnerable less evolved life there extinct as a result.
Congress has mandated NASA to build a Europa lander, but I don't know if that will happen as described. Congress: NASA must not only go to Europa, it must land
I think this is going beyond the bounds of what a government body should do - to tell scientists that they have to do scientific exploration of the solar system in a particular way. That's not something that can be decided by politics, as it depends on what is possible (some things you might want to do just can't be done), on whether it is safe as regards planetary protection of Europa, and whether we know enough yet about the Europan surface to devise a suitable lander. We only have fairly low resolution images of most of Europa especially compared with, say, Mars.
And it also makes it a far more expensive and difficult mission to add a lander to it, means it has to be launched on a very large rocket, perhaps the SLS instead of one of the lower cost rockets.
But at any rate this can be done.
If we can find a way to achieve 100% sterilization in the future - not impossible - then Europa and Enceladus are exciting targets for rovers. Ceres also and Vesta would be interesting to study on the ground.
And many other such places. These are just some of the highlights.
The one to expect first though, in near future, is the Moon. It really does look as if we will soon have multiple rovers on the Moon controlled from Earth, first for the Lunar X Prize, but surely leading on to others later on. All returning photos from the Moon at least as that's one of the X prize conditions.
We will also have many exciting missions to Mars also. It hasn't been forgotten. Indeed - I think it's like satellites. The more you launch satellites, the easier it gets, not harder, to launch more of them, as prices go down, and people find new ways to use them etc. So I don't think this activity on the Moon will detract from exploration on Mars or elsewhere in the solar system. Rather, enhance Mars exploration as well as being a place to develop new ways to explore with rovers, and if the rovers can show in practice what a huge difference it makes to have 24/7 connectivity and broadband communication, perhaps it could be an incentive for better communications with our Mars rovers - which is currently the main bottleneck slowing down exploration of Mars. Not the light speed travel time. They could be ten times faster, do ten times as much as they do now in the same time, and still not hit the limits set by speed of light communications. The problem is the very small amount of bandwidth, and difficulty of finding a slot also meaning that teams on Earth typically communicate only once a day with a rover on Mars.
See also my Case For Moon - New Positive Future For Humans In Space - Open Ended With Planetary Protection At Its Heart
And you might be interested in the Case for Moon facebook group.
You can understand why this would be an advantage to the government - but why would the extra terrestrials do this? That's the big problem with this idea.
Also - remember that it's extremely unlikel...
(more)You can understand why this would be an advantage to the government - but why would the extra terrestrials do this? That's the big problem with this idea.
Also - remember that it's extremely unlikely that ETs would arrive here just as we reach technology. And if they did, surely they evolved at least a few million years ago (would be almost absurdly unlikely for them to evolve to a similar stage as us at almost exactly the same moment in geological time).
So - if they are here, they would have technology from thousands of years into our future. So their spacecraft wouldn't crash, not with such a simple mission as a landing on a planet. And - surely they wouldn't send themselves down to the surface either - they would send avatars, robots to come here first.
And their technology would not be just a decade or two in advance, but thousands of years in advance. I don't think there is the slightest chance that the US is in possession of technology that is a thousand years ahead of everyone else, or any other government. They would be sure to use it for civilian means, write off their debts by generating energy, or making things etc using simple machines that will be invented a few centuries into the future.
And as for contact in the past - why didn't past civilizations learn basic maths such as ratios, equations with negative numbers in them, the decimal point, zero, logarithms, etc etc.
So, no, I don't think we are in contact with ETs or have been in the past. If there are any there, they surely have a strict no interference policy. Or perhaps they just are not here yet. Or their robots could be, but so unobtrusive we'll never find them.
It's also obvious that they haven't colonized the galaxy, at least not in an exponential fashion. If they had, again would be astonishing if they evolved just now, so they would surely have done so a few million years ago already. So would already be here. Indeed the galaxy would be overflowing with them and probably have constant warfare and boom and bust cycles.
I think therefore that if there are ETs in our galaxy, then either they just don't go in for colonizing at all - perhaps because they see the many things that could go wrong if they filled the galaxy with their kind plus all the inventions, and other beings and replicating machines they could produce - or else - if they do - they do so in a way that is unobtrusive and has minimal effect on the galaxy.
It could also be that there are very few ETs, compared to the size of the galaxy, and that some of them are great travelers, long lived, think nothing of crossing the galaxy several times at sub light speed, and one of them is due to visit Earth some time in the next few thousand years.
see also my
Again, this answer is about the teaching of the Buddha. Actually it's not so much about being in this world, as about the sufferings associated with birth, old age, sickness and death, coming aroun...
(more)Again, this answer is about the teaching of the Buddha. Actually it's not so much about being in this world, as about the sufferings associated with birth, old age, sickness and death, coming around over and over, as well as many other forms of suffering, anxiety and unsatisfactoriness.
It's not really about either ceasing to exist or trying to escape to some other realm of existence.
And what Buddha taught, as things we can come to see for ourselves, was rather that first, it's not possible to establish permanent happiness in dependence on our bodies and the other impermanent changeable things. That is kind of obvious.
A bit less obviously though, this means that this dukkha or "unsatisfactoriness" covers things that are normally thought of as pure unadulterated happiness. States of bliss, pure joy. Even those, though they are not suffering in any ordinary sense, yet if they are based on transient conditions, don't solve all your problems and so though you may experience stainless bliss, still are not totally, ultimately satisfactory because at some point they come to an end.
He taught, as something again that you can find out for yourself, that we can never find a permanent solution to all our problems like this. There are many happy states, and it's great when anyone finds some measure of happiness, but there is no "happy ever after" state dependent on conditions in this way.
Then he taught the possibility of cessation of this suffering and unsatisfactoriness. Which basically is to do with not fooling yourself and relating to everything as it is. To see the impermanence of everything.
Along with that, he said that as you see this impermanence and changing nature of things more and more clearly, you can also come to see that you yourself also don't exist as you thought you did.
Obviously I do exist as a person, in the ordinary sense, as did Buddha also. He taught for many years after he reached enlightenment.
But he said that you can come to realize that in some sense, you have been fooling yourself for years. That you have been grasping to an idea of a self, existing in a sense in which it can't exist and doesn't exist.
So - it's important to realize here that this is not saying that there is anything you need to get rid of. That's the most common misunderstanding of the Buddha's teaching, that he was teaching a path that involves getting rid of something.
Trying to rid yourself of your self is a fool's errand, a hopeless quixotic task that just reinforces your sense of self even stronger, as the one who is trying to get rid of it.
"Don Quixote, his horse Rocinante and his squire Sancho Panza after an unsuccessful attack on a windmill. By Gustave Doré."
Trying to get rid of your self is a bit like "tilting at windmills" :). (here "tilting" means running at it with a lance as in medieval jousting) Don Quixote
Instead Buddha said at some point you may realize that it never was there in the sense you thought it was. There is nothing to get rid of because there never was anything there in the sense you thought there was.
Then he taught a path leading to this realization.
So - far from being about escaping from this world, or trying to cease to exist, it's about relating to things as they are, exactly as they are. It's removing the thick skin we surround ourselves with. Trungpa Rinpoche described it memorably as like swallowing a baby hedgehog.
It's actually about connecting more to this world, and being more open to it than ever before. It's almost the opposite of the isolationist ideas of trying to cease to exist, or to try to shut everything and everyone else out, or to escape from this world to some other "better place" or to become some kind of a better being than you are now.
It's a path of wisdom, openness, compassion, a kind of softness and directness, and clarity. And about seeing or realizing truth for yourself.
And in the Mahayana traditions especially there are many stories about enlightened beings taking birth, or in other ways relating directly to suffering beings on the path. Even with Buddha himself, though he entered paranirvana and said he will never take rebirth again - yet it's said in the Mahayana traditions - if you have the right connection you can be inspired by reading his sutras, and you can connect to him as if you were there, right back at the time he was teaching. Time and space are perhaps not as strictly linear as we think of them, maybe they are more fluid.
Also, none of us, or few of us at least, directly know about rebirths through our own understanding. Buddha actually warned against thinking over much about such questions as who you were in a previous life or who you will be in your next life, as tending to emesh you in a tangle of ideas.
Buddha taught a path of "come and see", and there's no creed to assert. It's okay to believe in past and future lives, just as we believe in many other things we can't confirm for ourselves. In traditional Buddhist countries many will just accept that as the beliefs they were brought up with, or that make most sense to them, and there's nothing wrong with that :).
But the best approach is to have an open mind, that you don't really know what happens when you die, just as with so much else you don't know. Especially in the Zen tradition, though they have this context of the background of past and future lives just as in all the other main Buddhist traditions, yet, it's not emphasized in the same way, and the teachings, especially their koans, tend to be much more about an open mind and acknowledging that there are many things you don't know. That's part of the path to true wisdom. Indeed I think some Zen teachers would say that it is all of the path to true wisdom :).
Well there's a common view here in the West that the aim of the Buddhist path is to leave our bodies and our Earth for some other realm, or to cease to exist.
But Buddha before he became enlightene...
(more)Well there's a common view here in the West that the aim of the Buddhist path is to leave our bodies and our Earth for some other realm, or to cease to exist.
But Buddha before he became enlightened explored the possibility of meditations that take you to a mental state free from all the everyday suffering, states of pure bliss, and even more refined states and he mastered the most refined states of meditation taught at his time - and decided this is not freedom from suffering, because all such states are temporary and dependent on conditions. So the path he taught is not one that leads us away from our everyday life to some other state of bliss.
And he also taught for several decades after he realized Nirvana, so it's not extinction in the sense of ceasing to exist as a person either.
Yet, he did teach that there is some truth we can come to see directly, that takes us to the very source of all our suffering and dissatisfaction and lets us see through it.
There's nothing special about rebirth except the endlessness of it. Also the sufferings that may be associated with birth, old age, sickness and death.
But the path isn't about trying to leave this cycle of existence to go somewhere else. That would just be a rebirth in another realm, so you would still be within the cycle of existence - and he taught that any such rebirth, even if it was millions of years of pure happiness, would not be a permanent solution. At some point it would come to an end and you are back where you started.
The main thing there is just to recognize that we don't know what happens when we die. Because the Buddhist teachings are about "come and see" and unless you can see for yourself what happens when you die, then the most truthful thing you can say is you don't know. So - of course many Buddhists believe that we take rebirth in different forms and may have many particular ideas about that, and nothign wrong with that at all. But it's good to recognize what it is you know, from direct understanding, and what it is you believe to be the case but can't know directly. And for most of us, rebirth is of that nature. And Buddha taught also that there is no value in affirming belief in something you can't see to be true for yourself. So there is no creed. Though most Buddhists do believe in rebirth, I do, you don't have to believe this to follow the Buddhist path, you just need an open mind.
The refuge ceremony that you can take as a way to "become a Buddhist" - of value as a way to dedicate yourself to the path - has no creed to assert to, for instance no requirement to say that you believe in rebirth or any such. You just say you commit to follow the path of the Buddha. Which is a path of awakening to the truth, whatever it might be.
"In the Buddhist tradition, the purpose of taking refuge is to awaken from confusion and associate oneself with wakefulness. Taking refuge is a matter of commitment and acceptance and, at the same time, of openness and freedom. By taking the refuge vow we commit ourselves to freedom."
See The Decision to Become a Buddhist by Trungpa Rinpoche.
It's possible, but very unlikely, that there's a gamma ray burst in our galaxy focused towards Earth. It has to be withing 5,000 to 8,000 light years of Earth, in a galaxy that is 100,000 light ye...
(more)It's possible, but very unlikely, that there's a gamma ray burst in our galaxy focused towards Earth. It has to be withing 5,000 to 8,000 light years of Earth, in a galaxy that is 100,000 light years in diameter. So that's not very likely. They may happen every 5 million years close enough to affect us. We are shielded from the immediate effects by our atmosphere, about ten tons per square meter. So it's mainly things like depletion of the ozone layer and acid rain.
A close gamma ray burst may cause extinctions. Maybe mass extinctions if close enough. But I'm sure humans would survive, would be one of the adaptable specis that would survive, since with our technology we are one of the most adaptable species on Earth, at least of animals. And that's with only stone age technology.
Are Gamma Ray Bursts Dangerous? - Universe Today
See also my Could Anything Make Humans Extinct In The Near Future? for an overview of extinction threats to humans.
It's possible to reuse some of the ISS modules. The thing is that most of them are getting to the end of their design life. The newest modules could be re-used and the Russians did talk about using...
(more)It's possible to reuse some of the ISS modules. The thing is that most of them are getting to the end of their design life. The newest modules could be re-used and the Russians did talk about using them for a new space station in LEO. I don't know if that is going to happen.
In future maybe we will find the many tons of metal in space of value, but at present we don't have any manufacturing facilities to reuse them.
We have so little by way of reuse in space, that satellites are often abandoned just because they run out of fuel they need for positioning and station keeping, a bit like driving a car along a highway and when it runs out of fuel, you leave it by the highway and get your company to send you another car to continue the journey.
So, generally it's easier to just build a new spaceship than to repurpose and old one in space. The new one would have the latest technology and whatever you need for the mission.
I would imagine that if the ISS modules are reused, they'd be more likely to be used for a new space station in LEO as that's what they were designed for, and surely we will continue to have a use for that. But maybe not occupied by humans 24/7? And even then it might be easier to send up a new inflatable space station from Earth, if the Bigelow approach works. Because you have to factor in all the missions to reassemble it into a new space station too.
In principle if you had big enough rockets you could move the ISS to the Moon perhaps to the Earth Moon L1 position. You'd think it would work there though it would need more shielding to cope with solar storms.
But it's rather heavy, and if you did it with Soyuz rockets, it would take hundreds of missions probably. If you have a big enough rocket to do that easily, then you can also probably launch a new space station from Earth easily too. E.g. SLS or Falcon Heavy - are they best used for moving the ISS somewhere else, or just for launching new modules into space?
So, probably most of it will just be de-orbited. Some modules may be saved and repurposed as modules for a new station in LEO.
Another option would be to move it up into a higher orbit, so that it doesn't de-orbit right away, keep it safe for a few more decades or even longer if you put it in a high enough orbit. Could certainly do that, say as a museum or something, but that would be an expensive mission also.
It seems like a waste somehow, that hundred billion dollars and after a few decades, it all de-orbits and there is nothing left of it. But that's the way it is for all the stations in LEO so far and you can understand the logic, as it is not just a few thousand or million dollars to preserve it, but at least hundreds of millions, and you need a very good reason to spend so much to preserve a space station for the future. And doesn't seem that they can come up with one, not so far anyway. It's valued for what it is now rather than as something for posterity like a monument.
I think it's got a chance actually - it's mainly searching for past life. It's the first mission to Mars with the ability to drill below the surface, able to drill 2 meters down. This is not really...
(more)I think it's got a chance actually - it's mainly searching for past life. It's the first mission to Mars with the ability to drill below the surface, able to drill 2 meters down. This is not really as deep as you'd hope, you'd like to be able to drill ten meters, but it's a good start. The aim is to find ancient clays or salts with organics that were deposited by life. Most importantly you have to be able to distinguish this from organics from meteorites, and they think they can do that.
They are headed for an area of Mars Oxia Planum with many layers of clay, complex geology, and the clays were exposed only recently, but deposited over 3 billion years ago. It also has a large delta or aluvial fan. (see also Landing site recommended for ExoMars 2018 )
So - I think first decent chance of finding ancient life on Mars.
We have no idea what kind of life it would be, what habitats it preferred, how advanced it would be, what biology it would have. And it has to be buried quickly, not eaten, preserved for billions of years not washed away by floods, and then exposed quickly. Still, it's got a large area to search, varied and complex geology, many strata, and it may find life that has been preserved through all that.
It's not really searching for present day life, but does have the capability. And according to some ideas, there may be life even in the equatorial regions of Mars and not just in the "warm seasonal flows". If so then perhaps it will find it.
Some scientists think Viking already found life in the 1970s. See Rhythms From Martian Sands - What Did Our Viking Landers Find in 1976? Astonishingly, We Don't Know
We've never done any follow up experiments. Curiosity would not be able to confirm or deny this result, if true.
If so, ExoMars is the first rover since Viking to have a chance of confirming this, or at least getting additional suggestive data. It was able to detect life in the dry desert core of the Atacama desert, by its chirality, which is quite a challenge.
http://www.berkeley.edu/news/med...
I'm not sure it is sensitive enough to disprove this Viking result, since the controversial Viking labelled release was capable of detecting a tiny signal of a few cells which it then grew in a medium, at least that was the idea.
But it could potentially confirm it. If so there'd be a lot of interest in that.
There are also theoretical ideas that could permit life there, either using the 100% night time moisture, also Nilton Renno thinks that there is some possibility that life could use biofilms or something similar to exploit the new liquid layer foudn beneath the sand indirectly by Curiosity. The usual idea is that it is either warm enough for life, but too salty, or fresh enough for life, but too cold, and never both together. Nilton Renno thinks there might be a chance that using biofilms or other methods, life could modify this environment to make it habitable, if so there could be life just a cm or so below the sand Curiosity was driving over, and ExoMars would have a chance of finding it.
Present day life is likely to be sparse and hard to find in such extreme conditions - so you might need to sample in many places before you find it. Anyway this is not its priority; it would be sent to a different part of Mars if the aim was to find present day life. But it has a chance.
I think of the missions coming up in the near future, ExoMars has by far the best chance of finding past or present day life on Mars in 2018 or whenever it gets there.
The Trace Gas Orbiter has a chance of finding more about the methane also. Right now then I think the ESA with Russia is just about to get to the leading edge of Mars life exploration. At least it will if it can keep on track and they are doing everything right. If any of the landings fail, surely they will try again.
Just wanted to say, you don't have to practice Vajrayana Buddhism in the Tibetan tradition. I'm in the tradition, have been for 35 years, but don't practice as a Vajrayana student.
It depends what ...
(more)Just wanted to say, you don't have to practice Vajrayana Buddhism in the Tibetan tradition. I'm in the tradition, have been for 35 years, but don't practice as a Vajrayana student.
It depends what you mean of course. If you mean just that you got some blessings from a Tibeta Lama and went to some colourful ceremonies then most have probably done that in the Tibetan traditions.
But if you mean the guru pupil relationship etc etc - well I'm sure for Tibetans in Tibet also, few can have followed it like that. I mean few compared to the population of Tibet.
And I think it's a bit sad that so many Westerners seem to think they aren't really practicing as a Buddhist unless they can find themselves a guru in that sense. It's like, if you can't get on board with that, they may despair of Buddhism.
It's perfectly all right to just be a good Buddhist, like you can be a good Christian. It's no different really. Few Christians feel that they have to become a monk or a nun, or a hermit or a minister or a missionary to be a Christian. Why do so many Westerners feel they have to become someone who spends hours every day meditating and practices many advanced Tibetan practices to be a Buddhist?
You can go for refuge at some point, if you want to make a strong connection to the Buddhist path.
Perhaps take one or more of the five precepts. Some go on to take the bodhisattva vow, but there's no need to do that. Meditate a bit if you like, but many Buddhists don't meditate.
Practice generosity, compassion, loving kindness. Try to be open and understanding. So many just seem to think these are unimportant and that what you need to do is to rush into the vajrayana as quickly as possible - but this is the core of the Buddhist teachings, just as it is in Christianity and just about all the major religions. This is what it is all about.
This idea that you absolutely have to somehow find a teacher who not only teaches the Buddha dharma but is your guru as well - I think that is quite kind of stressful for some Westerners.
Of course if you are lucky to meet and make a close connection with a wonderful teacher like Tai Situ Rinpoche, that's great.
However, that's just a blessing, no matter how many colourful ceremonies you do, unless somehow you do really see him as the Buddha, truly, a connection that can't be simulated, that his teachings and advice is actually opening you out to wisdom and compassion, and loving kindness in a boundless way.
That has to come from your side in some kind of a natural spontaneous way. It is a really uncommon thing to happen, that you connect to someone so directly like that. It doesn't have to be a person, it can also be animals, plants, inanimate things like a stream, and it can happen in any moment in your life. Main thing is something outside yourself, not yourself.
You can't make it happen, because you respect someone or know that they are a great teacher or anything like that.
If it does happen, though, then this connection can arise of teacher and guru.
But I think it may also be part of the reason for so much turn over. Like - the feeling you may get in some Western Buddhist centers that either you have to be doing lots of "advanced practices" or you had better leave.
Indeed these are not really "advanced practices" - it all depends on your situation. What they are really is a kind of a medicine.
If you are diabetic, you need insulin, so you may need the very advanced medical practice of getting regular injections of insulin, maybe have to do it yourself, may need to monitor your blood sugar levels every day.That doesn't mean that everyone should take up this medical routine. Few people would look at a diabetic and say "Oh I so wish I could have this complex medicine" and pester their doctor to diagnose them as a diabetic.
If you are a diabetic though, it's wonderful if you can meet a doctor who diagnoses your disease and prescribes the medicine you need to cure your diabetes or at least to manage it.
It's a bit like that. If you are on a path that needs a teacher in this sense of a guru who directly connects you to the inspiration of the teachings of the buddha, and are lucky to meet the teacher you need, great!
If you then follow that path, sincerely, wonderful, keep it up :).
But if not - that's also great!
And be happy to be a good Buddhist following the path in your own way as best you can. That's the situation for all Buddhists in the Therevadhan traditions. And - true of the Buddha's first disciples also.
There is something there that corresponds to the Vajrayana approach. Tghat;s the Buddha's flower sermon in the Zen Buddhist tradition. The Flower Sermon - Zen Buddhist Sutra - that's really what the heart of the Vajrayana is about - that at some point there is a truth to be seen, which can't be understood in words or intellectually. They are like the finger pointing at the Moon.
If you sincerely follow the Buddha's path, you may encounter the truth behind the teachings.
And one thing my meditation teacher for most of the last few decades taught me is that it doesn't matter what path you are following. You can always say that this is your path, this is the path that leads to enlightenment, that everything is in this path and that no other path is needed.
That's the best attitude for any practices you do. Even if it is as simple as putting out seven bowls of water for the Buddha in the morning to invite him into your life. Or some act of generosity you do during the day. You can think that this is the only practice that is needed, that this practice alone will lead to enlightenment and free all beings of suffering and bring them to happiness.
With that simple approach then there is much less of this continually looking over your shoulder, and wondering if you should be doing something different from what you are doing now,and whether some big complex practice, or whether following another teacher or this or that or the other thing will solve everything.
I think this is a good attitude for other religious paths also, and for non religious paths too. Like, if you paint a picture, or make a piece of music, or work in your garden, or write a poem, or arrange a business meeting, or whatever, to put all your heart into it. It's a kind of Zen approach to life. And actually, that is what vajrayana is about, in its essence, what inspires it.
For more on this, see Shantideva's flowchart :). here: Sugatagarbha on Shantideva
Oh, I think quite possibly. They'd have found the ice and carbon dioxide and ammonia and other volatiles in the permanently shadowed craters at the poles. Also, the lunar caves, which may be up to ...
(more)Oh, I think quite possibly. They'd have found the ice and carbon dioxide and ammonia and other volatiles in the permanently shadowed craters at the poles. Also, the lunar caves, which may be up to 5 kilometers in diameter, and the peaks of almost eternal light at the poles, ideal for temperature and solar power.
The Moon actually looks rather favourable indeed, compared to Mars, nowadays, now that we know of those resources.
There may be hundreds of millions of tons of water ice there, and also many millions of tons of CO2 and ammonia. And the peaks of eternal light have the most continuous sunlight available on any large body in the inner solar system (apart from possibly Mercury), and they have steady temperatures, varying by only ten degrees C either way. The average temperature may seem rather chilly (at -50° C), but that's warm enough to let you keep a habitat at a comfortable temperature of 20° C with aid of a solar collector.
The caves on the Moon are also a unique resource as they have the potential to be far larger than caves on Earth or Mars due to the low gravity. Larger even than city domes.
There are many metals available also. And 0.5% of the soil is pure iron, which can be separated by a magnet. And the soil is very fertile, tested by growing plants in actual real lunar soil.
So - they wouldn't know any of this of course, but I think that if they'd continued with the explorations after Apollo 17 in this alternative past history, they'd have found it all out in the 1970s. We can never know what would have happened then, and can't say it would be a better history, but yes, I think that this might well have lead to permanent long term bases on the Moon by now.
I think it's also the obvious place to go next today.
Mars does have ice, but - if you think about melting it all - do remember that it has large areas of desert, dry for a long way down in the equatorial regions. Though there is water chemically locked in the sand, it's still as dry as our Sahara, and is not just a smooth ball. Much of the water would drain away into the desert sands. And it doesn't have much ice, compared to Earth. Not only does it have much less than the water in our oceans, it's got only a fraction of the total amount of ice in Antarctica too. It had oceans in the past, Bobody really knows what happened, but the latest evidence from the Maven spacecraft suggests that most of it was lost into space. A small amount might have ended up in the deep hydrosphere kilometers below the surface.
There is ice also in the equatorial regions of Mars, deep underground, and again we are not sure how much. I'm not at all sure you could create oceans there if you raised the temperature somehow. Also, that would need large planet scale mirrors or massive industrial levels of production of greenhouse gases, as part of a thousands of years project - and with much to go wrong. There is no way you'd change the planet over a decades long timescale or even a century or two by these methods. On Earth it took hundreds of millions of years, and that is in an orbit much closer to the sun than Mars.
The Moon at any rate has many advantages over Mars, It's much closer, far easier to supply and for rescue as well. As rich in resources as Mars I'd say, for up to thousands of people at least, and the peaks of eternal light particularly are amongst the most hospitable places you could hope for outside of Earth. The large lunar caves are an asset also. The effects of lunar gravity on humans long term is a big unknown but that's true also for Mars and you can't just draw a straight line between Earth and zero g, The human body is complex, with many interacting systems that would respond differently to different gravity levels. So, it could be that lunar gravity is better for you than Mars g, or worse, or different gravity levels may be optimal for different ages or health conditions, or there may be individual variation. There is no way to know except with experiments.
So, I think based on these recent discoveries about the Moon, which they could have discovered in the 1970s if they had kept going - you can present as good a case for near term settlement of the Moon as for Mars, and perhaps a better case, since it is so close to Earth.
So, I think yes they could have set up a Moon settlement. Not sure if you would really call it a colony as it would surely be dependent on Earth for many things. Nowhere in space is anything like as hospitable as Antarctica or our driest, coldest, harshest deserts and we don't colonize those. I think it would have been more like a settlement type base, not a colony - and not approaching self sufficiency, not yet. Like an Antarctic base, you'd have many people on Earth to support each person on the Moon. But the explorers and scientists in the base would be finding many things of value on the Moon by now, so making it worthwhile for us to support them just as we do with scientists and others in Antarctica.
For a shorter article summarizing some of the main points, see my Case For Moon - Open Ended Positive Future For Humans Based On Planetary Protection - Executive Summary
Actually, you don't have to believe in reincarnation to be a Buddhist. There's no creed at all. It's about "come and see for yourself".
So since most of us can't see our past and previous lives for...
(more)Actually, you don't have to believe in reincarnation to be a Buddhist. There's no creed at all. It's about "come and see for yourself".
So since most of us can't see our past and previous lives for ourselves, then - there is no value really in affirming a belief in rebirth as if you knew for sure.
But - at the same time, it's going too far in the other direction to say that this life is all that there is - that's also closing off certain directions saying "I won't look that way as I'm sure there is no point, there can't be anything there".
The best for a Buddhist following the path is to have an open mind about what happens when you die.
But - there's a difference between what you see for yourself, and teachings you can listen to and contemplate. So - the Buddhist tradition is full of many teachings about past and future lives. But you don't have to believe those as a creed, there's no value in that.
There are lines of reasoning that can lead you to think that it makes better sense than many other ideas to think in terms of past and future lives. But that varies also from person to person, some find them very convincing and others don't know what to make of them or they don't mean much at all.
So, when I first heard the idea it made so much sense of so many things that had puzzled me before that I came to believe it pretty quickly, like it makes a lot of sense to me.
But not in the sense of saying I'm sure of it. Just that it made a lot of sense. So, it's like my default assumption. Nothing wrong with that. We all have many default assumptions, e.g. lots of assumptions about the world we are in, what kinds of creatures we are, about our universe and so on. So it's like that. I can't prove it. Maybe if I'd been brought up different I'd have believed in ancestor worship, or an afterlife or whatever. I think for many traditional Buddhists it may well be like that, not something you think about much at all, but you just have it as background, that this is what makes most sense to you so you tend to go along with it, in absence of any reason to use some other world view.
Different Buddhist traditions vary in how much emphasis they give to ideas of reincarnation, but it is present in them all I think except for some modern secular versions of Buddhism which try to reinterpret the original teachings of the Buddha without the idea.
But as far as following the path of the Buddha, really, the main thing you need is just an open mind about what happens when you die, as it is about awakening to the truth, whatever it is, as it is, rather than trying to fit it into preconceptions.
Yes they are possible. The ESA's ExoMars will be highly autonomous
It can move autonomously, making its own decisions and building up its own navigation maps, and the scientists just tell it where ...
(more)Yes they are possible. The ESA's ExoMars will be highly autonomous
It can move autonomously, making its own decisions and building up its own navigation maps, and the scientists just tell it where to go. It can go up to 100 meters a day, and also drill autonomously too. For details see Robotic Exploration of Mars: ExoMars Rover
And I'm sure we'll have faster and more autonomous rovers in the future.
Also - the main bottleneck is not the light speed delay, but the bandwidth. At present scientists can only communicate back and forth in one or two short sessions per day.
If somehow we achieve broadband communication with Mars, then they could communicate back and forth many times each day and the rovers could do as much in a day as they currently do in weeks. There are ideas about how to do it, probably involves dedicated communication satellites in orbit around Mars.
With broadband communication you could also use "artificial real time"
That would speed it up hugely again, maybe close to the capabilities you'd have with humans in orbit, though that would be the most immediate of all, to contorl rovers on the surface using humans in orbit around the planet.
Nobody knows. Whether or not we ever send humans to Mars, this is also of interest for ideas for habitats spinning for artificial gravity. If they only need Mars or lunar gravity, then they may be ...
(more)Nobody knows. Whether or not we ever send humans to Mars, this is also of interest for ideas for habitats spinning for artificial gravity. If they only need Mars or lunar gravity, then they may be much easier to construct.
The thing is the human body is just too complex to simulate. And it's hard to know if bed rest analogies on Earth work. Resting with your feet up and head down, to simulate zero g levels of unhealthiness, then spinning in a centrifuge to try to simulate artificial gravity in zero g - it's just a few steps too far to be confident that this tells us about what the human body would be like in low levels of gravity - not without some ground truth from space.
We have two data points. Full g is healthy. Zero g is unhealthy.
Then we know that hyper gravity is unhealthy and can plot a graph there.
So if you have healthiness vertically and gravity level horizontally, it's something like this.
(The numbers there are arbitrary, just chose 500 for Earth and 100 for zero g, to make a nice graph, made with Line graph maker )
It could be any of those lines, or most likely none of them. Just drew a few at random there. As I suggested with the purple line, we don't even know for sure that low gravity is the worst of all for human health. And of course we don't know that Earth gravity is best.
It could have discontinuities too.
It could also be different lines for different people, or depending on your age or health.
Maybe if you have a heart condition, Mars is optimal, maybe if you have diabetes, the Moon is optimal, and if you want to give birth, Earth is optimal, maybe if recovering from a stroke, zero g is optimal. I mean those are all just random guesses there :). Mix and match as you like. Maybe some level of gravity is ideal for under 5s, but no good at all for adults. Or vice versa.
It might be that your circulation (heart rate, blood pressure etc) works best at one gravity level, the cells of your body are healthiest at another, your muscles keep their best muscle tone at another, your immune system works best at another, and it is easiest to lose heat at another while exercising. It may be that it is best to sleep at one level of gravity, to eat meals at another, to exercise at another, and to work at another, and to read a book at another, and another is optimal for using a toilet, another is best for ice skating, another is ideal if you want to be able to run as fast as you can unaided - might be that in future space Olympics, all the sports use different gravity levels :).
Maybe a space sprinter wouldn't think of running in anything except Mars gravity, but for the high jump you wouldn't dream of any other level except lunar g. Again just making up numbers there for fun :). While human flight, I think that is supposed to be possible in lunar g, so might be a new lunar sport, but who knows, maybe it is optimal in 1/100 g or maybe that is only used for newbies and kids trying to fly for the first time.
I think it's bound to be complex and multivarious, what g levels are best for what.
We have lots of data at full and zero g, not much data for lunar gravity, and zero data for Mars gravity and all the other levels including less than lunar - for humans that is. Plant cells change gene expression even at a hundredth of a g, so it would be worth investigating effects on humans right down to a hundredth of a g.
This could be discovered by doing experiments in artificial gravity in space, but there isn't much interest in the topic amongst the space agencies for some reason, despite some researchers saying it is a top priority to further research in artificial gravity.
See also my:
Can Spinning Habitats Solve Zero g Problem? And Answer Low g Questions?
Could Spinning Hammocks Keep Astronauts Healthy in Zero g?
Ingenious Idea: Soyuz Crew in Tether Spin On Way to ISS - For Artificial Gravity - Almost No Extra Fuel
Crew Tether Spin - With Final Stage - On Routine Mission To ISS - First Human Test Of Artificial Gravity?
Crew Tether Spin For Artificial Gravity On Way To ISS - Stunning New Videos - Space Show Webinar - Sunday
In any case, I'd say, why Mars, at this stage? The Moon has a lot going for it, see my
I’ve used some of the material in this answer in this new chapter in my Case for Moon First: Case For Moon First - WHAT ABOUT GRAVITY - ISN'T THAT A BIG ADVANTAGE FOR MARS OVER THE MOON?
Sometimes people ask him if he is enlightened and he says he isn't. You don't have to be enlightened to be a recognized rebirth in Tibetan Buddhism. It's like an inspiration carried from one life ...
(more)Sometimes people ask him if he is enlightened and he says he isn't. You don't have to be enlightened to be a recognized rebirth in Tibetan Buddhism. It's like an inspiration carried from one life to the other.
After all we are all rebirths, according to Buddhist teaching. There are many kinds of "tulku" in Tibetan teachings and the simplest is just someone who was a human in their previous life.
Though Buddha warned against trying to find your previous and next rebirths as unwise reflections on the Buddhist path. So most ordinary Tibetans would not know or want to know their past lives.
When Tibetans say he is the embodiment of Avelokiteshvara - that often gets misunderstood as if they are saying he is a Buddha. Yes in a sense, but in the same way that everyone who shows a moment of compassion is an embodiment of Avelokiteshvara. It's like Buddhahood shines through all of us. It's within that context that they say that.
And then - in the Tibetan tradition there's also the idea of a guru and pupil, which you don't have in quite the same way in all the Buddhist traditions.
There the idea is that you can relate to anyone actually as the Buddha. It's much more to do with your connection to them than intrinsic to them. The first person the historical Buddha met after he became enlightened was Upaka, who impressed by his serene appearance asked who was his teacher and what he had realized. When he answered that he had no teacher and that he had reached Nirvana, Upaka said "it may be so, friend" and went another way.
So you can't say that Upaka really met the Buddha in the sense of an enlightened person at that point.
Well it can work the other way too, you can relate to someone as a Buddha that to everyone else seems an ordinary person. Even animals, birds, inanimate things, can carry the inspiration of awakening, opennness, They can connect you to the truth, ground you.
It has to come from outside of your ordinary self in some way. Because otherwise it is just "same old". Usually that's inspiration of another person, but it can also be something inanimate. So that's the idea behind the guru / pupil in Tibetan Buddhism, but it has to come from yourself. Nobody else can say "I'm your teacher" in this sense when you haven't connected in this way from your side, as this inspiration connection can't be forced on someone else. If any teacher says that, you know they are a false teacher, in a Buddhist tradition anyway.
Also it's an inspiration of the truth of things, and the very extensive Buddhist sutras help a lot, because if someone or something you feel is this inspiration - but then the inspiration leads you in the direction of doing things that harm others, or that is against the dharma, you know that it was a false inspiration which can happen. Especially if you are like really keen to find a guru, treat it as like a "badge" to earn or some such, you may be so desperate to find someone, that even someone who is a good teacher may become a negative inspiration for you. So this is like a safeguard and a good teacher in the Tibetan tradition will explain it to you.
I think myself that it's a shame that so many Westerners in the Tibetan tradition think they have to find a guru. I don't think many Tibetans would feel like that at all. Indeed may not even meditate, and surely most won't have gurus in this sense. Buddhists often don't meditate and are much more laid back about their religion than some of the enthusiastic Westerners.
So in this sense, if someone does have that inspiration, that his holiness the Dalai Lama is an inspiration that is connecting them to the truth of the Buddha's teachings, then yes, he is the Buddha to them. But nobody else needs to think of him as a Buddha any more than they do for anyone else who is compassionate or who has wisdom. You can still say, following the Tibetan way of thinking, that he is Avelokiteshvara, and respect him and see compassion in his actions, just as you can with anyone else who you see as compassionate in this world. It's not really that different.
There is also this idea of inspiration from a previous life that means a lot especially to Tibetans - the idea that somehow also he is connected in some intimate way with their country. But Tibet didn't always have a Dalai Lama - there was a first one, and some time there will surely be a last one. He may be the last Dalai Lama - it depends on conditions and whether it is auspicious to continue and whether they want to recognize the Dalai Lama in his next reincarnation.
If he chose not to do this - it's not like it would mean there still is a Dalai Lama but he is reincarnated "incognito". That's a rather cartoonish way of thinking about it.
Rather the institution of the Dalai Lama would just cease. He would be reborn in some form, but would no longer be a continuation of this inspiration stream of the Dalai Lama because the last Dalai Lama had chosen not to continue it into the future. The institution or office of the Dalai Lama is a kind of independent thing from the streams of rebirths. Something like that.
So - just a few thoughts, may help.
That's because it's a different idea about reincarnation. The Hindus generally do believe in a soul or "atman" that reincarnates.
But the Buddhists teach about it in a different way. Buddha taught ...
(more)That's because it's a different idea about reincarnation. The Hindus generally do believe in a soul or "atman" that reincarnates.
But the Buddhists teach about it in a different way. Buddha taught that we are confused about our own self nature. That we think there is something permanent that lasts from one moment to another - not as a theory but a kind of basic idea that underpins everything we do. He said that if you look clearly you'll see that there is nothing there of that sort. That you never even realized quite how strongly you were clinging to this idea - and that if you could but see, you'd drop it instantly as if you found that all your life you've been holding a red hot coal in your hand.
Not that there is something there to be got rid of. To try to get rid of your sense of self is just going to make it stronger, reinforce the idea that there is some permanent self able to get rid of it :). You can never win with that approach :).
But he taught that at some point it will actually be something that you can see directly, dawn on you, that this self you thought was there all along - that actually - wasn't there, not as you thought it was.
Yet again is no value at all in affirming all this as a creed, he taught also - he said "come and see" that you need to see it for yourself.
Most Buddhists haven't had any kind of understanding or realization of this. I know I haven't :). But to be a Buddnist - basically that's saying that you think there is some truth of that type to be seen. You maybe are doing an ordinary life just like anyone else, gardener, cook, programmer, musician or whatever. It doesn't mean you drop everything to try to find this truth. But a kind of awareness of it as a direction and path, that's what makes you a Buddhist. A Buddhist is someone who is following the path of the Buddha, who taught that there is a truth of this sort to be discovered. With much else also part of the path such as opening out to compassion, and wisdom, and generosity and many other things. It's like there are other truths also that are connected together and the basic teachings on compassion, generosity etc and basic morality like not stealing, killing lying etc are the easiest to connect to for most people.
So - that's about this life. So - of course Buddha when he realized nirvana - he didn't disappear. He continued to teach for several decades. And talked about his past life, even previous past lives also, and taught people. Whatever he is talking about there, it is not anything to do with ceasing to exist as a person in the world in the normal sense.
So, in the same way, if you can continue from birth as a little baby all the way to an old person and death - why not also continue to another life? If you don't need an unchanging atman to be a person in this life, why would you need it to transition to another life?
So in that sense yes it is consistent with Buddhist teaching. But Buddha though he taught about his own previous lives, he said that trying to find out who you are in your own previous life, or next life, etc is not productive. He talked about his own previous lives, but warned about trying to figure out your own previous lives.
So questions like:
That's the list of "unwise reflections" in the Sabbasava-Sutta
So - the Tibetan system is kind of unusual. Most Buddhist traditions then you won't try to find your next or previous birth. And in Tibet also, ordinary 'Tibetans wouldn't know or expect to know who or what they were in a previous life.
It's not surprising you forget. Few people remember their early childhood and birth and almost no-one remembers being in their mother's womb. So why would you remember your previous life, separated not just by birth but also your death at the end of the previous life, and perhaps also the intermediate state which is described as being like the brightest lights imaginable and sounds louder than thunder.
So, it's in that context - that still some special teachers they think can be found again in their next life. But it's not like they are expected to remember their own previous lives like the Buddha. But as a child there is some memory and connection and when they die, if they have practiced well during their life, they can direct their next birth to the extent that they can leave hints and instructions to help people find them in their next rebirth.
So that's the basic idea and theory behind it, as best I understand it.
Other schools of Buddhism have much less emphasis on this. The Zen Buddhists especially hardly talk about rebirth at all. Yet they do have this basic idea of reincarnation, it is just that they are rather strongly following the recommendation of the Buddha to not follow it up and try to figure it out. So it's like a spectrum thing there.
And as there is no Buddhist creed there is no need at all to affirm a belief in past or previous lives. It is hard to practice as a Buddhist if you think this life is all that there is - because it is closing your mind off to possibilities as you can't prove that this life is all there is. And it's important practicing as a Buddhist to have an open mind because the path is to do with seeing the truth as it is, unfiltered by your preconceptions - that's where it is headed. So if you have a strong preconception that there are certain things you can never accept to be true, that closes your mind in a way that makes the Buddhist path rather harder to follow.
But if you keep an open mind about what happens when you die, that's good. That's the best actually, if you want to follow the path of the Buddha sincerely - better than having specific ideas about exactly what happens based on doctrine rather than your own direct understanding.
Though there is also a place for faith in Buddhism where some people may come to thoroughly trust their teacher's understanding in a way that lets them quickly come to see certain things directly based on relying first on what their teacher says. That's a bit like the way that poetry or good music can sometimes lead you to connect to things in a way you hadn't realized you had the capability for before.
I am answering this, which I know is a tricky thing to answer in Buddhism because nobody else here seems to be presenting this. It may give you a rough first idea of how Tibetans think about it. If anyone else can give a better account, do say!
My main teacher for Buddhist meditation was a mathematician by training. He often used mathematical analogies in his teachings.
Buddhist "metaphysics" is kind of a bit unusual, it's not really like ...
(more)My main teacher for Buddhist meditation was a mathematician by training. He often used mathematical analogies in his teachings.
Buddhist "metaphysics" is kind of a bit unusual, it's not really like metaphysics as understood in Western philosophy.
Quoting from wikipedia -
Traditionally, metaphysics attempts to answer two basic questions in the broadest possible terms:
But that's not the aim of Buddhist metaphysics.
Because - it's to do with experience. The logic is very valuable, helps you examine things closely. But the realization the Buddha taught about is something you have to see for yourself. It's not a theory you have to aver :).
So, Buddhist metaphysics is much more to do with looking at things in different ways - in order to see that there are many ways of looking at things, and to not just understand that intellectually, but relate to it experientially in meditation and in your everyday life.
It's not at all based on the idea that at some point along the line through sufficient intellectual work, you are going to come up with a philosophical "theory of everything" rather like the scientific theory of everything that many scientists hope for.
In other words, it has the same questions, but without the expectation of finally answering them in a definitive way.
So where does that get us with numbers? These are just a few thoughts to share.
Yes, mathematical things like numbers, and like triangles and so on - they seem timeless and permanent according to some ways of looking at them in maths - the platonic approach.
But that's kind of paradoxical. If they really are timeless - how could we as beings in time ever be aware of them? If the number 7 is not imbedded in time, what would count as perception of it? And if the number 7 can never be perceived by humans, then what use is it in maths?
On the other hand, it doesn't seem to make much sense to say that the number 7 is something changeable and embedded in our world, and that for instance 3 + 4 = 7 is a purely contingent thing.
Perhaps this is telling us something. Buddhist teachings are just about looking directly at the truth and relating to it as well you can. And - sometimes the truths you find are a bit like a koan, something that you can't resolve through intellectual hard work. I think trying to understand the true nature of maths may be a bit like that too.
To the Moon for sure - for humans. Because the Moon is interesting in its own right. It's like ignoring Antarctica because someone landed there in the nineteenth century, so it is already "done". I...
(more)To the Moon for sure - for humans. Because the Moon is interesting in its own right. It's like ignoring Antarctica because someone landed there in the nineteenth century, so it is already "done". It's the closest place to us, and easiest to explore. If we can't explore our Moon, we have no chance of exploring Mars.
Also - why rush humans as quickly as possible to the place in the solar system most vulnerable to Earth microbes? We want to find native Mars life there, if it exists. It is easy to find life if you bring it with you yourself, but that would be the worst possible anticlimax of our search for life in the solar system. Especially if we found that there was some vulnerable form of early life on Mars, say, RNA based life which on Earth got made extinct by DNA life, until just before the humans got there. We must make sure this can't happen.
We can explore the Moon which is turning out to be much more interesting than most expected - it's also resource rich. It has some resources that Mars doesn't have indeed.
Then as we do so, we continue robotic exploration of the solar system, and find out what humans do best, and what robots do best, starting off with humans on the Moon. Then continue outwards in an open fashion, building on what we've learnt.
I've just written an article for Science20 trying to set out a "Case for Moon" as a positive vision for the future like Zubrin's "Case for Mars".
It can be an exciting future, exploring the caves on the Moon, the polar ice, searching for Earth meteorites from early Earth (about 200 kg per square kilometer of Earth meteorites there), even meteorites from early Venus and Mars. Ice at the poles but not just that, also CO2, CO, ammonia, etc. The Moon is actually rich in many metals such as aluminium, titanium, and as for iron, there's iron powder, about half a percent of the soil, which you can separate out with a magnet.
Later on we can explore Mars from orbit and its two moons, Phobos and Deimos. Meanwhile continue to explore Mars robotically, and also later, telerobotic exploration from orbit.
In this approach, science and planetary protection is central. Space settlement happens because you are there for a purpose. And as with the Antarctic bases - once we are there doing good science, with science as the motivation, then it would be an on going permanent first step into space.
Not just a "boot print" mission - once it is done, the public will wonder why you want to continue having clearly fulfilled your objective. And colonization - I think would just fizzle out, not being sustainable except with billions of dollars a year support from Earth which would sooner or later dry up.
But missions motivated by science just grow and grow, and engage the public - and what's more though, they can also have overwhelmingly positive outcomes too, especially if we make new discoveries about biology and evolution.
On the Moon we can have human missions where the humans are actually there to explore and make discoveries about the Moon, not just to study themselves in zero g and study how Earth organisms and such like behave in space conditions. It can be our first go at finding out how humans get on at that, and the relative rolese of humans and robots, close to hand, where you can get back to Earth within a couple of days in an emergency, also resupply them at any time witout needing to wait for special launch windows and journey times of months - by which time the emergency is probably over one way or the other.
Also
They usually hang up on me. I tried several variations, but ended up with a very simple and effective routine.
I say "Have I given you permission to ring me up?" and explain that I have joined the ...
(more)They usually hang up on me. I tried several variations, but ended up with a very simple and effective routine.
I say "Have I given you permission to ring me up?" and explain that I have joined the telephone preference service - the UK version of a no call register.
That's their opportunity to say "Yes" if they are someone I have given permission to.
I find the cold callers just ring up at that point. Most times they don't even resond to me - they say their spiel, I say "Have I given you permission to ring me up?" - "Click" - they put the phone down and don't even reply.
I try to get in "please take me off your lists" but they usually don't give me enough time for that.
I used to get several such calls a week. I haven't had any now for several weeks.
As the others say here, they have no interest in continuing the call if you make it absolutely clear that you aren't interested. And most of them will just hang up immediately without saying anything, in what would be very rude behaviour in normal circumstances - as soon as they feel there is no chance of a sale. I''d be interested to know why they do this if anyone knows. After all they can spend many minutes on the phone normally - do they really need to save the few seconds it would take to say "okay, sorry to have bothered you" or whatever?
Interested in the other solutions here also :).
The main advantage of doing it this way rather than e.g. pretending to speak some foreign language on the phone (interesting solution) is that just on the rare off chance that it is a genuine call - say - something you signed up for, and they are ringing up to tell you something you asked to be told - well it is going to be a little embarrassing maybe, but not much.
I did get one call like that, which I thought was a cold caller but turned out it was a utility company - the genuine one not a scam. I'd actually opted into something, ticked a check box on an online form saying it was okay to ring me up about new deals from my company - so I then asked them to opt me out and tell me by email only instead of by phone, explaining that I'm interested to hear about new deals but don't want my day interrupted by a phone call to tell me about it - and then they just took me off their phone up list.
Yes not only is the human body radioactive, you can actually measure the radioactivity of our bodies with sensitive detectors.
Are our bodies naturally radioactive? - Health Physics Society
Amongst ...
(more)Yes not only is the human body radioactive, you can actually measure the radioactivity of our bodies with sensitive detectors.
Are our bodies naturally radioactive? - Health Physics Society
Amongst other interesting titbits of information on that page, we eat on average 1/15,000 of an ounce of uranimum every day in our food though only one or two percent is absorbed by the gut - which is then excreted in our urine or our hair.
So we all have uranium in our hair, though some have perhaps a hundred times more than others depending on how much uranium you have in your food.
Most of the radioactivity though is from potassium-40. Much lower amounts from Thorium, Uranium and other radioactive elements.
There's controversial research suggesting that low doses of radiation might actually be good for us, promoting cell repair.
See Could Small Amounts of Radiation Be Good For You? It’s Complicated.
No, Mars, gets half the amount of sunlight Earth does. Which you might not think is a big deal, after all means the equator is similar to a high latitude on Earth. But it does make a difference bec...
(more)No, Mars, gets half the amount of sunlight Earth does. Which you might not think is a big deal, after all means the equator is similar to a high latitude on Earth. But it does make a difference because it changes the heat flow balance.
Earth's atmosphere is warm enough, through the greenhouse effect, to keep Earth warm, water liquid, trees to grow etc.
Our atmosphere on Mars, if you could magically transport it there, would not be able to keep Mars warm in the same way. Indeed it's a mystery to try to figure out how Mars could have had liquid water oceans in the past. Maybe it had greenhouse gases such as methane to help keep it warm.
If you could give Mars the same atmosphere as Earth somehow - it would not be warm enough for trees to grow even at the equator, except of course inside greenhouses.
It would also need to have three times the mass of atmosphere for the same atmospheric pressure because of its lower gravity.
Terraforming plans for Mars usually involve the likes of large planetary scale thin film mirrors to double the amount of light reaching Mars, or else, greenhouse gases produced on Mars - large scale industrial production of greenhouse gases using materials sourced on Mars itself. The most efficient greenhouse gases are based on fluorine, and would involve mining cubic kilometers of fluorite ore a century on Mars to keep it warm, and hundreds of nuclear power stations to supply the energy to create the gases.
I think myself that terraforming of Mars is mainly an intellectual exercise at present - of value for understanding exoplanets, how our planet works, maybe some time in the future could be used for Mars but can't see it happening in the near future.
The Mars Society of course think it is practical. But their aims are more modest as well as more long term than most suppose. It's not like the Mars trilogy, which fudges the numbers for dramatic effect. It would take a thousand years to get to the point where you have a CO2 atmosphere which trees could grow in, but poisonous to humans (we can't survive when CO2 levels in the air we breathe go above 1%). So humans would need closed system air breathers. They think it is possible to then go on and develop an atmosphere with oxygen in it, but at that point the plans get increasingly sketchy.
And there is much that could go wrong. See my
Trouble With Terraforming Mars
Imagined Colours Of Future Mars - What Happens If We Treat A Planet As A Giant Petri Dish?
To Terraform Mars with Present Technology - Far into Realms of Magical Thinking - Opinion Piece
Why Nukes Can't Terraform Mars - Pack Less Punch Than A Comet Collision
Our Ethical Responsibilities To Baby Terraformed Worlds - Like Parents
How Valuable is Pristine Mars for Humanity - Opinion Piece?
Lot's wrong. It's mainly fantasy, like the Mars Trilogy but speeded up even more and more fudging of the numbers.
Lot's wrong. It's mainly fantasy, like the Mars Trilogy but speeded up even more and more fudging of the numbers.
There are genuine proposals to terraform Mars, especially the Mars society proposes to do it - they suggest around a thousand years to get as far as a CO2 atmosphere with trees only, no animals. But there are also lots of potential issues with the idea too.
This is pro terraforming, and more accurately describes how they think of it:
The Big Idea - Making Mars the New Earth - National Geographic Magazine
I'm very sceptical of it myself though as something we could really do. It is great fun as an intellectual idea to explore.
SOME OF THE PROBLEMS FOR TERRAFORMING GENERALLY
It is not at all clear that we can terraform Mars, and if it is possible, with current technology, it’s a thousands of years, or perhaps a 100,000 year megatechnology project. There are so many questions. How sure can we be that we will continue such a project, when it is likely to cost billions of dollars a year and need support from Earth for thousands of years?
The Mars trilogy is science fiction and the optimistic real world estimate from the Mars Society takes a thousand years to a stage where trees can grow but no animals or birds yet, and humans need aqualung like closed system breathing kits to get around. And is based on assumptions about the amount of dry ice on Mars which are not yet confirmed, and doubts have been cast about how much dry ice still remains there.
Do we have the scientific understanding needed for it? We have never terraformed a planet, and with all our technology on Earth, we find it hard to just keep the CO2 levels on Earth from rising by tens of parts per million. Would it unterraform as easily as it terraformed or go to some undesirable end state. Is it possible at all?
What about accidental planet transformations, where lifeforms we didn’t mean to introduce change the climate in unexpected ways? And Mars gets much less light than Earth, so an Earth atmosphere would not be warm enough for Mars without planet scale thin film mirrors to double the amount of light reaching Mars, or industrial levels of production of artificial greenhouse gases (200 half gigawatt nuclear power stations to supply power, and 11 kilometers of fluorite ore mined per century to make the gases).
Are we confident that this is what our descendants a thousand years from now will want us to do for them? Will they be pleased that we started the project so soon and made Mars just as they wanted it, or will they be frustrated by our failed projects, and lament the pristine Mars they would wish to be able to study and possibly transform for themselves?
Trouble With Terraforming Mars
Imagined Colours Of Future Mars - What Happens If We Treat A Planet As A Giant Petri Dish?
To Terraform Mars with Present Technology - Far into Realms of Magical Thinking - Opinion Piece
Why Nukes Can’t Terraform Mars - Pack Less Punch Than A Comet Collision
Our Ethical Responsibilities To Baby Terraformed Worlds - Like Parents
How Valuable is Pristine Mars for Humanity - Opinion Piece?
Well if they had the ability to prove or disprove some important conjecture, they probably can also prove many smaller results first. Proving a few non controversial results, but ones that are stil...
(more)Well if they had the ability to prove or disprove some important conjecture, they probably can also prove many smaller results first. Proving a few non controversial results, but ones that are still quite hard to prove would establish their credentials as a mathematician. And if they can't prove something like this, then the chance they have proved some outstanding unsolved conjecture must surely be quite low.
Good advice about it here:
Advice for amateur mathematicians
Some areas of maths do have many contributions from amateur mathematicians even today. Robert Ammann made many contributions to the theory of non periodic tilings. And recreational maths is a fertile field for amateur mathematicians. I.e. the mathematics of games and puzzles.
These links might also be of interest: List of amateur mathematicians
What recent discoveries have amateur mathematicians made?
And - if anyone does try to get the attention of a professional mathematician - do be understanding if they ignore you.
Remember that most mathematicians have the experience of thinking they have proved a result, then finding a flaw in it.
I remember when I was studying for my doctorate in Oxford then for several days I thought I had proved a quite significant result in combinatorics - I mean - not a big one that everyone would have heard of, but an interesting one all the same. I can't remember what it was now - this was perhaps 30 years go. But I remember that I had hit on what seemed a really neat solution. I got as far as telling a few mathematician friends about it and explaining the proof to them - but then to my embarrassment found a rather elementary error on the first page.
Which sadly couldn't be saved.
Sometimes your error leads to either an alternative proof or a proof of something else. But this just blew it apart completely and the following several pages of tight reasoning was useless.
Sometimes even false "proofs" get published. Like the early "proofs" of the four colour theorem in geometry by Kempe (1879) and Tait (1880). Back then the pace of maths was less than today and their proofs were accepted unchallenged for eleven years before someoen found a flaw in them. Four color theorem - history
You can read about Kempe's "proof" of the four colour theorem here: Lab 3 - looks at Kempe's "proof" of 4 colour theorem and explains the flaw in it
So given that, the default assumption if someone gives you a proof of an important result in maths is that they have made a mistake. It is quite easy to miss a mistake like that in your own work - and just reading a proof is a long job. You can't just pick up a proof and read it in half an hour or so - especially if it has gaps in it and is poorly expressed.
And - it's good to talk about your attempted proofs with other mathematicians, as they often find flaws in them that you can't see yourself.
It's for all practical purposes impossible. Those dramatic movie and discovery channel videos use asteroids the size of planetesimals - hundreds or even thousands of kilometers in diameter.
There ar...
(more)It's for all practical purposes impossible. Those dramatic movie and discovery channel videos use asteroids the size of planetesimals - hundreds or even thousands of kilometers in diameter.
There are asteroids that big. If Ceres or Vesta or one of the larger asteroids hit Earth it would indeed mean all life is wiped out probably. But they are in stable orbits for at least hundreds of millions of years. There is a 0.6% chance of Vesta hitting Ceres in any particular billion year period and even then - that's not a large asteroid hitting Earth, it's two large asteroids hitting each other.
The Earth, Moon, Mars, Mercury, were hit by really huge asteroids or comets over three billion years ago - but that was debris from the solar system as it was still settling down. The so called "late heavy bombardment" - the tail end of it.
But we haven't been hit by anything that big for over three billion years. The largest we can be hit by at the moment is more like 10 kilometers in diameter or a little larger. Jupiter may well have a lot to do with this, disrupting and diverting larger comets and asteroids from the outer solar system before they can be perturbed into Earth crossing orbits. Many end up hitting Jupiter, evaporating as they fly close to the Sun, or hit it, ejected from solar system, or if they survive all that, they get broken into pieces by tidal interactions with Jupiter.
So no, not going to happen. Indeed humans would survive and wouldnot be made extinct either - the flying dinosaurs (birds), mammals and many other creatures survived the Chicxulub impact. Humans with minimal technology would also.
And the chance is tiny. One chance in ten million, 99.99999% certain we won't be hit by even a 10 km diameter asteroid this century. Smaller asteroids are more likely and the tiniest the most likely of all. If we do get a news story "Asteroid due to hit Earth" it is almost certain to be a 10s to at most 100 meter asteroid as they are most common of all, so the most likely to be predicted. A 100 meter asteroid could be very devastating. But more likely to be smaller, perhaps 30 meters upwards.
And it is also almost certain to be predicted to hit a desert or remote area or the sea, because only a small percentage of the Earth surface is heavily populated.
So
HUGE ASTEROID DUE TO MAKE ALL HUMANS AND MANY OTHER SPECIES EXTINCT
BIG ASTEROID DUE TO HIT EARTH, MOST OF THE POPULATION OF THE WORLD WILL BE MADE HOMELESS OR KILLED UNLESS THEY TAKE PRECAUTIONS - HOW TO PREPARE FOR IT
SMALL ASTEROID TO HIT IN A REMOTE DESERT (OR IN THE SEA), BOOK YOUR FLIGHTS TO WATCH A SPECTACLAR FIREBALL AS BRIGHT AS THE MOON
If it is hazardous, then more like the Russian meteorite, watch out for broken windows and flying glass type scenario.
But you can't rule out a large asteroid impact which is why it is important that we detect them. And if necessary will eventually deflect them too. Because certainly this will happen. But it might be centuries or more likely thousands of years before we get hit by a largish one, even a 100 meter one is more likely not to happen for a few thousand years. After all there is no record of such an asteroid throughout human recorded history - no asteroid equivalent of Vesuvius. So they are rare. It's likely to be tens of millions of years before we are hit by a giant one like the one for the dinosaurs as they happen on average 100 million years ago (last one was 66 million years ago). It's just an average, can happen any time, but most likely to be many millions of years into the future. Plenty of time to deflect it to make sure it can't hit us. We can do that indeed with only a decade or so of warning, or even less for smaller asteroids, or using nuclear weapons to deflect or such like.
See also my
There's a major problem sterilizing the robot enough for this mission. Because we don't want to introduce any Earth life to the Europa ocean. In principle, heat it enough, or using enough ionizing ...
(more)There's a major problem sterilizing the robot enough for this mission. Because we don't want to introduce any Earth life to the Europa ocean. In principle, heat it enough, or using enough ionizing radiation you can sterilize it. And if you can remove all the organics from the lander, then it should be sterile. But in practice all the ways we know of doing that also destroy electronics and other delicate spacecraft components - or else are not 100% effective.
There are several techniques being explored. But we don't yet have 100% sterilization. That's especially tough if your lander is going to end up in an ocean that may perhaps have vulnerable lifeforms, e.g. life that is simpler than DNA life and that was out evolved on Earth, to take an example.
On the plus side, we might not have to drill down all the way. Enceladus has geysers that seem to come from permanent cracks 1 meter wide on average all the way down to its subsurface ocean. It's actually ejecting its ocean into space, slowly. and they find salt in the spray of ice from its geysers. So that at least is a place where you don't need to drill, can just sample the plumes themselves.
Europa hasn't been studied close up to the same extent that Enceladus has been, and also has higher gravity so its geysers would be lower probably. But it has things that make it promising.
First, it has signs of chaotic terrain on the surface that may be due to plumes of water rising from the ocean, a bit like lava plumes on Earth. As they break through to the surface they turn into icebergs which turn over, in this model. If so - well one of them is a dip still, not a rise. Which suggests that there may be liquid water (denser than ice) below it. If so there may be a liquid plume close to the surface of Europa.
It would be a great place to visit, maybe even might have plumes also? But we need to study Europa more closely first.
NASA has been mandated by the US government to include a lander on its Europa mission. But I think that's the wrong way round to do things myself, for politicians to make such a decision. Because - until we have close up images, we can't design the lander anyway. For instance Europa may be covered in thin blades of ice, which would make it really hazardous to land. It might have geysers, in which case you don't need to land at all, and can sample the water from orbit. It might have liquid water on the surface in which case you could only land if your lander is very thoroughly sterilized and may be that the spaceship gets there only to find out that it can't land its lander in the most promising landing site for planetary protection reasons.
And - if you send an orbiter first to look at it close up, then - by the time we get the data back, some time in late 2020s or 2030s, then surely rocket technology has moved on a lot. We may be able to design a lander and send it in a follow up mission very quickly. I don't think it's the right decision to delay the launch now, in order to design and add an all purpose lander to land on any concievable site on Europa, with no clear idea of what exactly it would be studying.
I think the politicians who drafted that proposal perhaps didn't realize quite how little we know about Europa - we haven't had a good close up study at all, lots of flyby images but only a few of them are high resolution.
Also I think you should never say that we "have to land" somewhere - as whether you can or not depends on planetary protection considerations. If you can't do it consistent with planetary protection - then the whole mission might get called off. It has to be a suggestion "it would be really good if we can land on Europa" and leave it to the scientists to then research into whether that is possible technically, cost effective, and also possible within the demands of planetary protection. You need a possibility of dialogue back and forth as the project continues. And as it is, then NASA also may be forced to launch using the SLS which doesn't exist yet due to the extra mass of the lander.
It's great that they prioritized Europa though.
Just to say there's an online big integer calculator you can use for calculations like this
Big Integer Calculator - Arbitrary Precision Arithmetic
444^333 = 37890387621992308448721621423178965616790...
(more)Just to say there's an online big integer calculator you can use for calculations like this
Big Integer Calculator - Arbitrary Precision Arithmetic
444^333 = 378903876219923084487216214231789656167904651578073375003738779936799232856017567389145789286910698624886630198631280196276104022356356180168698757900413683710342753617100504159174321807964923809301417155023842193167012653977501610918466396451442501607971247904528034507911239836396604197742796384128511881199217474050313684471617068534164974239252619208649830245060190407560556686834696195198540797599980266457499480131020155687947503472836960140442167816294219230445478942824131383869987438780639002592346937852557594029538221493807058070176909779599024217575048765012267089338625432240201399530896932929642938072343494301759719190390066213154552021259993288254365528824140063670122517933160560392055597062109280972460177306206740654951541009947736336100266185173331155165225764395789540114952031818634280384899213032554353993437060779641272711502111505346673576676109122204073984
333^444 = 9230807129241764448885616320583540045479530253259406735065985216617990730919881112328849103285135376081878486348473472388462222819360993740290983928209254622077173254795275346693033770781527396930282882216584854831090968717563745086706374589391907503122909869042661021255805684067131170236629741824830474943321467115928675505491105928553912354028100269442162629014279481204779505132605346209921277379309773459582541323721056156883714950388707721941016473884346767332056077482324999220545491909097865289348886825001906107907364900585204382363299783603222214949055145842195613071990288012389640115918605533066350964239203288504489484585719193092687582479019066495366296634676542900145619839154964129834417386101651702532589198324031573878943352353447337367982912778289172240659728133872713086594174755367080461064258067508082644719918815397475658139171641789793651785063520979827574244829295330952975442270078672153929465464780002623020969353008225256705836674388729690957672162694677337349496056166321839163079987967767436641657621458755531260692965508099281712857128665757371634125862088552147754979848082518517659377521
444^333 + 333^444 = 9230807129241764448885616320583540045479530253259406735065985216617990730919881112328849103285135376081878486348473472388462222819360993740290983928209254622077173254795275346693033770781527396930282882216584854831090968717563745086706374968295783723045994356258875253045461851971782748310004745563610411742554323133496064651280392839252537240658298900722358905118301837560959673831363246623604987722063390560086700498042864121807524251805862745783209640897000744833666995948721450663047099880345769817383394736241742504511562643381588510875180982820696265262739617459264147236964527265008848765748850593256758524795890123200684683126516793072954039978499197515521984582180015737105760281322780424053647831580594526663973068311470354517945944700385189925576942316510666047717798310782492685618392330415845473331347406133514884921318346294408587782109714133287953544782711369893787399381316590946263696635607496293993135587297935783581361408605287365986809134566035897698327114235687285085832156432507012494235153193531832431197736410787349894973350407312314267211122102818151275398573590663653101653424758627639863451505
Ends in 5 as expected. See Ryan Cipriani's answer to What is the last 4 digit of 333^444+444^333?
:).
It depends. I wouldn't say that a metronome is helpful for everyone. After all nobody had metronomes anywhere in the world before the device was invented by Winkel in 1814. See Dietrich Nikolaus Winkel ...
(more)It depends. I wouldn't say that a metronome is helpful for everyone. After all nobody had metronomes anywhere in the world before the device was invented by Winkel in 1814. See Dietrich Nikolaus Winkel - yet there were many fine musicians before the invention of the metronome.
And there are many very musical cultures today, amongst the most rhythmical by reputation of any, e.g. Flamenco music to name one. They rarely use the metronome - Flamenco metronomes are mainly for people who want to learn as adults, from outside the culture. Another example would be Scottish fiddle music, where I live. Though a few traditional music players use metronomes, I think it is rare.
If you have a good sense of rhythm and play musically and well, depending on your musical culture also, you may not need it at all.
However it can also be very helpful for some people.
Some types of music require a very steady "metronomic" beat. So - that's the usual use for it, as a way to make sure your beat is steady.
However if you use it that way - it's worth knowing that it is natural for tempo to vary continually. We don't walk like robots. In the same way you don't play music like a robot. It would sound unmusical, for most types of music. Sibelius and such like programs have special modes that "humanize" the timings and rhythms. And as programmer myself of Tune Smithy - fractal music generator and microtonal composition tool which is used for musical fractals and algo comp - I added many features to help users make music with non metronomic rhythms.
If you listen carefully to someone who you admire, as a musician with a fine sense of rhythm, and even when they play what most people would call a "rock steady tempo", you are bound to hear continual variations in the tempo. For instance it might be a little faster for four measures, then slower for four. Often music alternates a little faster and then a little slower on alternate measures. Even dance music is like this, especially traditional dance. That's why many players of traditional music can't get on with a metronome at all - because it doesn't let you do a lively "dance rhythm" because it forces all the measures to be the same tempo, and all the beats within the measure too.
Note how almost every note played by Jaqueline du Pre in this next recording is different in timing with expressive rubato. Yet anyone would say she has an exquisite sense of timing and rhythm :).
In most musically expressive playing, the tempo varies continually, for instance here is a tempo plot of the Moonlight Sonata as played by Maurizio Pollini
That's true of all types of music. That is, unless the musicians use a click track - a click played over headphones. If they do, you can recognize this instantly, as a flat line, or almost flat line, in the tempo plot. For tempo plots of music to compare, see Revisiting the click track
You can also generate your own click plots or look up previously generated ones from that site (though the service seems not to be available right now - was available a week or two ago).
So - unless you do want to sound like one of those click track pieces - which is the goal in some styles of music indeed - then you probably won't use the metronome or a click track for performances.
That depends on the style again. Some musicians have as their aim to sound like a click track - so in that case, yes you probably need a lot of training with a metronome to achieve that effect.
To others, this may sound boring, like a clock. Why would anyone want to learn to sound like a clock? The thing is that once you have heard three beats, you know exactly when the fourth one will happen. After a dozen or so you are in no doubt at all, you know to the millisecond or so, when every new beat will be.
Still, that doesn't mean that the metronome is useless. Because - it's actually much more versatile than you might think. It's like an instrument in its own right. You need to know how to use it to get the full potential from a metronome.
What a metronome can do is to help you to hone your sense of time. So you can hear fine details of rhythm to the millisecond, that you might not have heard before. And to perform with fine nuances of timing. Again some musicians can do this naturally so don't really need it. But for others, that's what it can help with. Also help with your sense of rhythm and tempo.
The key here is that you don't think of yourself as becoming a slave to the metronome. Rather the metronome is helping you to uncover your inner sense of tempo and rhythm. So you may do exercises such as set the metronome to go silent for several measures at a time (if it has that capability) and then come back in again and see if you are still in time.
This is Bounce Metronome set up to go silent briefly for that exercise:
Or play with the metronome fading to silence every four measures
Or set it to play its ticks at longer and longer intervals, double, four times and so on, while you play at a steady tick and again aim is to be exactly in time with each of its ticks, spaced further and further apart.
These are two of the exercises from Mac Santiago's book "Beyond the Metronome".
You don't need to be afraid that practicing in this way will make you metronomic. Far from it, it has the opposite effect. It's like an artist who demonstrates his or her fine control of a pen or brush by effortlessly drawing a perfect circle or line with one movement. It's just technique.
So, that's one way you can practice. And - if you practice like this, you do need to notice one thing. When you play with a metronome, most musicians instinctively play off the beat. Either just before, or just after, or randomly sometimes before and after. The reason is that they need to hear the metronome - and you hear it most clearly if you play off the beat. Play exactly on the beat and you mask its sound, it may even seem to skip a beat. But - if you want to use it for precision rhythm and tempo practice, that's what you have to do, to play exactly in time, so that your sound and the metronome's tick merge. And then also to be able to drift about in the beat, sometimes before, sometimes after - but in a controlled way. You play before because that's the exercise, not because you are trying to hit the beat and miss. And learn to hear that distinctive merge sound. Even if you play quite a loud instrument, still, you can learn to hear this merge, of yourself and the metronome playing together. It may feel as if you are actually playing the metronome :). On every tick.
There are many other ideas to use in your metronome practice.
See also Andrew Lewis's
Rhythm: What It Is And How to Improve Your Sense of It: Andrew C. Lewis
You can also check out my
available as a kindle booklet Vanishing Metronome Clicks, for Timing Sensitivity: And other Metronome Techniques - Many Ways to Use a Metronome
and also available to read for free online. The Vanishing Metronome Click - Burying the Click
I'm the author of Bounce Metronome, and there are many other videos to try out in thevideo resources section of the website. The program itself runs on Windows, Linux, Mac OSX (beta but pretty much finished), but not on iPad or Android. It's commercial software, but comes with a free taster metronome which can do the usual 2/4, 3/4, 4/4, 6/8, 9/8, 12/8 with up to four subdivisions, with many features. For some musicians that may be all you need
If you want to try the more advanced capabilities then it is paid for but with generous discounts if you need them. And a 30 day trial which you can renew as often as you want by asking for a new trial if you need one.
You can get it here: Check Out the Astonishing Bounce Metronome Pro
And this is an article I did about it: Metronomes - Do You Need Them? And A Metronome Using Conducting Techniques For Visual Precision
In that article I talk a lot about ways of practicing to help with a sense of rhythm, that don't involve using a metronome, towards the end of the article. Which might be worth reading though it is rather getting away from the topic of this answer.
BOOKS, AND ONLINE RESOURCES.
First the ones already mentioned, with numerous fun exercises to try.
Then, you can read Frederick Franz's Metronome Technique online for free, try especially his Chapter 2.His history section is an interesting read too.
Many other resources on my Metronome Links - Bounce Metronome page
I think this is the wrong objective at present to self sustain in space. I'm working to try to find some alternative positive future vision.
We are nowhere near able to self sustain in Antarctica, i...
(more)I think this is the wrong objective at present to self sustain in space. I'm working to try to find some alternative positive future vision.
We are nowhere near able to self sustain in Antarctica, in the Atacama desert, in Siberia, or on the top of Mount Everest. Yet all those places are far far more habitable than Mars. In terms of habitability, Mars is far more like the Moon than it is like Earth.
Indeed, for thousands of years, humans have only attempted large scale colonization of places already occupied by humans. There isn't even a huge amount of interest in colonizing the Sahara desert - we could reverse desertification there far more easily than we could colonize Mars.
So, I don't see it myself. I think we should start with the Moon. Which is also a place where we have at least some chance of economic return, of the settlement paying for itself. That could work. Settlements that are useful for Earth could be supported by humans on Earth at some ratio, say a hundred, or a thousand of us on Earth supporting each settler in space. If they are doing something of great value for Earth, or even just because they are wealthy and can afford to pay, that could work.
I think we should leave Mars well alone on the surface, because though humans couldn't be self sufficient there, they could easily mess up the scientific exploration of Mars by introducing Earth microbes. Because it is seeming more and more likely that there could be habitats for life on Mars. If so we want to see whatever life is in those habitats already,not just life introduced from Earth. It would be a tremendous anticlimax to go there and only find the life we brought ourselves, especially if we found that there was some form of life there that existed until soon after the first humans landed there. Or that was still surviving but bound to go extinct. That could happen. Mars life could be an earlier form of life for instance, made extinct by DNA on Earth. And many other possibilities. Being adapted to Mars doesn't mean it is going to be able to compete with DNA life, just depends what it is.
I think that before we can become self sufficient in space, at the least, we have to be able to build floating sea cities that are self sufficient on Earth. Those are probably orders of magnitude easier to make self sufficient. There i mean - using only sea water, our atmosphere, and a few rocks, floating on the sea and producing not only all their own food, but also their machines, and everything else they need.
That may be possible, some time. But we are nowhere near it at present.
I'd enjoy being in space if
I'd enjoy being in space if
Earth is just too nice a place for humans. I'd enjoy the weightless experience, seeing new landscapes and so on. It would be fun and exciting. But I'm not natural astronaut material :). And enjoy living on Earth too much :).
But I'll be there to cheer on the humans who do explore in space. It was great to watch the Apollo landings on the Moon so long ago, just the childhood excitement of seeing humans doing such things - so long as it is consistent with science exploration. and planetary protection.
I also find it really interesting to look at the photos taken by our robots in the solar system. In the future these will surely become more detailed and immersive, and we'll be able to put on virtual reality goggles and walk over the surface of the Moon, Mars, Pluto and so on in our own living rooms.
Interesting question, and - not really. Some of it yes. The thing is that in science we focus so much on the empirical side of things. Finding things outside of ourselves, solving physical problems...
(more)Interesting question, and - not really. Some of it yes. The thing is that in science we focus so much on the empirical side of things. Finding things outside of ourselves, solving physical problems such as illness, or how to make and build things, or understanding how the world works. All of that is important. But - still, even if you are healthy, and happy, and have everything that you need to satisfy your basic needs, and live an interesting and productive life, still, you may feel that there is something more to life.
Particularly, we all know that the best things don't last for ever. You can see that things you enjoy one day, that you waited for with great anticipation, then after a while you get bored and need a new car or new gadget or whatever it is.
You can only spend so much time eating chocolate cake, then you get sick of it, or just physically can't eat any more.
And on a longer timescale, that you know you will get old, may get sick, eventually will die. Even the wealthiest, most powerful, or most clever people, or the funniest people or the ones with most friends, they too will get ill and eventually die, or may have accidents and so on.
So this much we can all see and verify - the impermanence of things, that there are no lasting solutions, no way of making a perfect state we can live in happily for ever. There is no real "happy ever after".
Which is not to deny at all that there are many ways we can be happy in this world. And that short term happiness is a positive thing. And it is great to help others to be happy also.
But - when you help someone to be happy, or help yourself to become happy, still, you recognize that this happiness is short term, and you haven't sorted yourself out for all future time.
That's not pessimism, as so often is suggested, it's just reality which we can all recognize.
So then the next part, that there is a path to address that, which involves understanding your situation clearly - that's the next part that is not really verifiable empirically. The Buddha taught that by looking at our situation clearly, meditating on impermanence, seeing how things change, and really deeply looking at that, that we can come to see through the cause of all this suffering.
That's something you can come to by reasoning, and recognize that seeing the fluid nature of things is likely to lead to more skillful behaviour, better understanding, that your expectations are not going to be disappointed so easily as you are "going with the flow" of things. Not so much continually looking into the past and trying to recover past possibilities that have disappeared into history and are no longer options.
Again that is easily misunderstood as saying that we shouldn't commit, or have friends, or hobbies, or things we dedicate ourselves to. But of course, we should do all those things. Buddhists have close friends and partners and children like everyone else. If they choose to be a monk, or nun, they will still have friends, and even someone who spends years in a cave is still supported by others, and is doing their meditation for the benefit of others.
The next bit is where it goes beyond empirical ideas of science. It's the idea that there is a truth to be seen that you have to see for yourself. When Buddha gave his first teaching to the five ascetics, they all understood what he was saying logically - but only one of them, Kondanna, had the direct realization of what he said.
This is an idea that is very common in religion, but not so much in science or philosophy. The idea of truths you have to see and experience and realize for yourself. For instance the famous passage from Corinthians: "For now we see through a glass, darkly; but then face to face: now I know in part; but then shall I know even as also I am known."
In the first sermon we read:
"When this discourse was thus expounded there arose in the Venerable Kondanna the passion-free, stainless vision of Truth (dhamma-cakkhu; in other words, he attained sotapatti, the first stage of sanctity, and realized: 'whatever has the nature of arising, has the nature of ceasing.'"
First Sermon of the Buddha
What he realized there seems trivial, something we an all see, that anything that has the nature of arising also has the nature of ceasing. But the teaching here is about a truth you can realize, not just understand intellectually.
To follow the Buddhist path you need a faith that there is such a truth to be seen. That everyone has this capacity to see this passion free stainless vision of Truth.
His other four companions understood it only intellectually. But they had faith that there is such a truth to be seen, and so they also were following the Buddhist path.
That's true of most Buddhists. We haven't seen these truths for ourselves. But through reasoning, through reading the Buddhist sutras, from listening to teachers talk about them, we come to have faith that there are such truths to be seen / realized.
Buddha reached enlightenment as a young man. He didn't say that he was going to become enlightened when he died. He said he had already reached cessation, and then continued to teach for several decades after he reached enlightenment.
So - it's something that you can not only come to see, but also it is to do with this world itself. It's not an afterlife, it's not some other state that you escape from this world to find. It's not either extinction of yourself. Buddha still continued to teach and didn't disappear.
Rather - it's said to be a dawning realization that something you thought existed all your life is not there, and never has been there. So realizing that something doesn't exist. It can't be got rid of, because there is nothing there in the first place, so trying to get rid of it will only reinforce the idea that it is there.
So this central truth that you can come to see - it's described as "non self" but any idea you have of what that means is bound to be either wrong or a pale shadow of what it refers to. Because if you understood it you'd be enlightened already.
So - this part of the teaching is not something you can verify empirically. You can't tell if anyone else is enlightened either. It's something you have to see for yourself.
And the Buddhist path is based on faith that there are such truths to be seen. Doesn't have to be a conviction that you are sure of it. Just an open mind, that you think there is enough reason to think there is something in it to want to follow the path to find out for yourself.
There is nothing else you need faith in. Buddha gave many teachings in great detail and many others since then have added to those teachings. So - it is clear what the central teachings are. But he also taught that there is no value at all in affirming belief in something you can't see to be true for yourself. So - there is no creed. The very idea of a creed is counter to the central teachings of the Buddha. But lots of teachings, lots of very specific suggestions and ideas and meditation techniques and such like that you can try for yourself. His message was "come and see for yourself".
It can't really be made into an empirical science for this reason. This idea of truths that you have to see for yourself is the central thing - that is not much addressed in contemporary philosophy either, as far as I know. As someone with first degree in maths,second degree in philosophy, this was one of the things that was so refreshing about the Buddhist teachings.
But you can study philosophy in this way also. To try to understand it as something you experience, and notice how it transforms the way you look at the world to adopt various philosophical views.
Indeed that's a technique in Buddhism also - lots of philosophical views you can investigate. But they also are all experiential, you are expected to meditate on them, and they transform your experience of the world. And the most interesting thing there is not so much the view itself, as seeing what happens when you switch between different views. That's one of the techniques used in Buddhist meditation in some of the Tibetan schools.
Perhaps some day all of this can be integrated with science. But to do so, science will have to venture into new territories, to do with truths you can experience yourself. Not just psychology, but the idea that what you experience yourself can have a validity. We do have inklings of this in Quantum Mechanics, the idea that you have to have an observer for anything to take a particular state. But that's a long way away from a complete approach that could recognize possibilities of things such as realization of truths, and this transforming your world from direct realization of certain truths.
It would be a more experiential science, and I have no idea how it would work. We don't want to discard the science we already have, which has much that is excellent about it. Especially the scientific approach. That's a way of searching for truth, which works. It's what Buddhists would call "relative truth". Truth about this world, and the things in it, and how they are connected, what scientists call verifiable truth. So that also is to do with connecting in a grounded way with the reality of the situation we are in. You can't fool yourself so easily if you follow the scientific method. So it also is to do with relating to the reality of situations.
But Buddhists also talk about "absolute truth" which here means truths you can come to see for yourself, and that you have to see for yourself. And that just understamding the reasoning is not enough, that as with Buddha's first disciple, Kondanna, at some point eventually you will encounter the "the passion-free, stainless vision of Truth".
Most Buddhists just go about their ordinary lives like anyone else. In the West you might get the idea that all Buddhists have to meditate - but actually - you can be a Buddhist and never meditate at all. But it's an inspiration, the idea that there is something that can be seen in this way. And the practitioners who do follow that path sincerely are seen as people to be supported in their quest, with the idea that by so doing they are benefiting everyone. Even the meditator meditating for years in a cave - there's the idea that right away the world is blessed by these meditators, that they are contributing something positive, just by following the path so sincerely, so directly trying to see the stainless truth for themselves and for everyone else. So that's why Buddhists support monks and nuns and solitary meditators and so on.
For more about this:
Four Noble Truths (Wikipedia article as it was in 2014, lede gives a good summary of the four truths. This article was excellent up to then but the current version has been rewritten extensively by editors with little understanding of the dharma and is very poor).
The Four Noble Truths (Buddhanet, teachings by Ajahn Sumedho)
Dr_Walpola_Rahula_What_the_Buddha_Taught - widely acknowledged as a classic, expressing the central truths of Buddha in English.
Here on quora, What are the Four Noble Truths? has some good answers.
Yes definitely. We don't know enough to tell. The sun is quite young only 4.7 billion years. Compared with nearly 14 billion years old for the universe.
The younger stars are richer in the heavier e...
(more)Yes definitely. We don't know enough to tell. The sun is quite young only 4.7 billion years. Compared with nearly 14 billion years old for the universe.
The younger stars are richer in the heavier elements which life uses because they are created in other older stars so they had to seed the gas clouds the stars condense from, either through supernovas or solar flares or through "planetary nebulae" where a star "shrugs off" a shell of gas, or such like.
But how much of these elements does a habitable system need? Earlier stars had less of those elements but still billlions of years before our sun, they had plenty probably for life to use.
Interstellar Medium and the Milky Way
And - there was a time when the universe was habitable everywhere at least temperature wise. 15 million years after the Big Bang, the universe had cooled down to a nice temperature between 0 and 100 C and cooled down for seven million years before it got too cold. It didn't have much by way of the heavier elements then - but even so, some really huge stars could have gone through their entire lifetime (as the largest stars burn through their fuel more quickly) with planetary nebulae and supernovae right back then - and maybe created local patches of heavier elements for life to use. Any blobs of matter in interstellar space throughout the universe would be at the right temperature for life, heated by the background radiation left over from the Big Bang.
So - that's about the earliest we know of when life could potentially have evolved at least life somewhat resembling what we have now. It wouldn't have had much time to evolve, but we don't know what is the fastest that life can evolve, don't know much about how evolution happened at all. So it's hard to say that it is impossible back then. Especially in the entire universe - was there some spot, somewhere where life began?
It's a fun idea. It might well be some time before we get decent answers to questions like this.
Just to add to the other answers, the only place you could build something like this outside of Earth, with no radiation problems and simple construction, is in the upper atmosphere of Venus at the...
(more)Just to add to the other answers, the only place you could build something like this outside of Earth, with no radiation problems and simple construction, is in the upper atmosphere of Venus at the cloud tops. Because the Venus atmosphere above you would be comparable in thickness to Earth's. Will We Build Colonies That Float Over Venus Like Buckminster Fuller's "Cloud Nine"?
The Earth's atmosphere is 1.225 kg/m3. So to have the ten tons of Earth atmosphere above you for radiation shielding, in a domed enclosure, if you just do it with air, you need about 8 km of atmosphere above you. There I'm just assuming uniform density in a pressurized dome - of course it would be somewhat less dense at the top. But reasonable first estimate.
It would be quite a challenge probably to build a dome that has ten tons of material per square meter, though in principle it should work, held up by the pressure of the air beneath it. For the Stanford Torus and other such designs they talk about 4.5 tons per square meter shielding, as adequate but that also would be a major engineering challenge I'd have thought, for a transparent city dome.
If you do it just using atmosphere, that reduces it to less than 3.7 km of atmosphere, to have enough shielding to be equivalent to the recommendation for a Stanford Torus.
For a garden though, farms and such like, largely tended by machines perhaps, hydroponics and so on, you wouldn't need it to be shielded in that way.
Also for short term visitors. But for long term residents, especially living there from childhood it seems a significant issue. Who wants to significantly increase their chance of getting a cancer that would cut your life short by a decade or more?
The Caldera of Olympus Mons is deep enough to provide significant shielding from cosmic radiation if it was covered over and the residents lived at the bottom of it. Especially since the dome would arch above it.
I'm interested in it for planetary protection reasons - since the air is so thin at the top of Olympus Mons and it gets much less dust - is it a place where humans could land on Mars without risking irreversibly introducing Earth life to the planet?
I don't see how that is possible with present day technology - especially since a crashed spacecraft could easily miss its destination - and also very hard to land there with present day technology - but might it be in the future? Maybe also with new understanding of conditions on Mars? Could it somehow be contained and separated from the rest of Mars? Does it matter that it is still active on geological timescales?
Olympus Mons is 24 km above the surrounding surface. The caldera is up to 3.2 km deep so deep enough to be protected, indeed since the dome would surely rise well above the surface, well protected.
It's 90 km long by 60 km wide. Olympus Mons Caldera
Newton (lunar crater) on the Moon is even deeper, while still not that huge (not either hundreds, or thousands of kilometers in diameter), over 6 km deep, diameter of 79 km. And it's near(ish) to the lunar south pole with its ice. Perhaps this might be a location for some future domed city on the Moon? Newton Crater on Google Moon
And there are many other smaller craters on the Moon that would surely give substantial protection from atmosphere.
Of course - that's a lot of mass of atmosphere too. Same problem as for the O'Neil Cylinder - that nitrogen particularly is in rather short supply in the inner solar system.
So it seems a waste to use it just for radiation shielding. Probably better to go for the very thick plastic option, or even water if you can find a way to use that - water much more abundant than nitrogen. Maybe in the form of clear ice? Like an Ice hotel?
Icehotel (Jukkasjärvi) melting, photo Laplandish
File:Coming icehotel.jpg 'Coming out' Art suite in ICEHOTEL Jukkasjärvi, Sweden, 2008. Made by Maurizio Perron. photo by
Laplandish
Ice would not be stable on the Moon, it would evaporate quickly in the vacuum. But cover it on the outside with a thin layer of plastic, same on inside perhaps too, to help keep it cold, and it might be a useful building material for a transparent dome / greenhouse?
WHY DOMES?
They have to build spherical or locally spherical structures in space - at best - tubes with rounded ends, or toruses or some such. The reason is the ten tons per square meter outwards pressure from the air inside the habitat.
If you build on a surface, then it can be a section of a sphere, because you have solid rock to anchor it to around the edges of the habitat.
When you see an artist's impression of a rectangular greenhouse on Mars - as you do sometimes - my first question is - how does this avoid exploding outwards? Even a greenhouse at ten percent of Earth's pressure, enough so that a human can survive for a while with just an oxygen mask rather than a full pressure suit inside - will have one ton per square meter outwards pressure. You can only have rectangular habitats if there is a vacuum or near vacuum inside.
You could have rectangular habitats with spherical or tube shaped etc living quarters inside them.
METEORITE PROTECTION
On the other hand - you can protect against micrometeorites with whipple shields, whichcan be transparent - multi layers of thin material to cause micrometeorites to fragment before they hit the main part of the habitat - this is how the ISS is protected for instance. And not quite like a balloon - the fabric can be made rip-stop, a large meteorite then would make a big hole, but it wouldn't immediately tear part, and then you put a patch in place quickly if something does get through. And have shelters inside which the people can rush to in an emergency, which would be very rare indeed.
An ice dome with the ice meters thick would probably be quite well protected - you would heal any breach - first with a patch on the inside to stop the air rushing out - then you patch it on the outside too, and pour water into the gap and let it freeze.
You can use similar ideas for settlements in space, then you can maneuver the settlement itself to avoid a large meteorite and divert smaller ones.
LUNAR CAVES
But safest of all probably is to live in a cave, like the lunar caves. These may be large enough to include entire cities inside them.
Lava tubes safe enough for Moon base - BBC News
See also my new Case For Moon - Open Ended Positive Future For Humans Based On Planetary Protection - Executive Summary
and in much more detail:
It wasn't a proposal. More like a joke, by someone who is noted for saying things like this in jest.
When scientists pointed out that it wouldn't work, wouldn't produce anything like enough energy...
(more)It wasn't a proposal. More like a joke, by someone who is noted for saying things like this in jest.
When scientists pointed out that it wouldn't work, wouldn't produce anything like enough energy to make a difference, he then said that he meant detonating millions of fusion bombs above the poles of Mars once every second to create two mini suns. A far future science fiction idea.
See also my Why Nukes Can't Terraform Mars - Pack Less Punch Than A Comet Collision
Oh, and using nuclear explosions in space - I think that it might be made an exception if it was for peaceful purposes. Though I'm not sure what the procedure would be. For instance if the only way to deflect a large meteorite was to use nuclear weapons, surely some common agreement could be reached to waive the Outer Space Treaty for just that one mission?
The treaty says "States Parties to the Treaty undertake not to place in orbit around the Earth any objects carrying nuclear weapons or any other kinds of weapons of mass destruction,install such weapons on celestial bodies, or station such weapons in outer space in any other manner".
Could they come to an agreement that nuclear bombs though they are weapons in normal use, in this case the intent which would be globally agreed on means they are no longer weapons in the sense of the treaty but mechanisms for deflecting meteorites - or whatever it is they are used for?
Obviously that would need a lot of thought and discussion, and I've no idea what the lawyers would say. But in common law whether something is a weapon depends on the intent. For instance a stick could be a weapon, or something to support you as you walk, depending on your intent. You could prevent this being used later as justification for nuclear weapons in space by requiring that there is agreement that it is not a weapon by some significant majority of the UN or whatever first before it can be used. Just a thought. It would be interesting to hear what an expert in international law and space law would say about it.
No not at all possible. See Why Nukes Can't Terraform Mars - Pack Less Punch Than A Comet Collision
The thing is, there are two kinds of radiation from the sun. Fast moving particles, which cause the solar storms, and the photons from the sunlight.
Mars gets about half the amount of sunlight Earth...
(more)The thing is, there are two kinds of radiation from the sun. Fast moving particles, which cause the solar storms, and the photons from the sunlight.
Mars gets about half the amount of sunlight Earth does. Even with an Earth atmosphere, it would not be warm enough for trees to grow there at the equator without extra help such as planet scale thin film mirrors in space, or industrial levels of production of greenhouse gases (cubic kilometers of material needing to be mined every century to make the gases).
On the Mars surface you get much more UV light than on Earth where most of it is absorbed in the ozone layer. But other levels of light are much less.
SOLAR STORMS AND COSMIC RADIATION ON MARS
Mars gets much more radiation from solar storms as well as cosmic radiation. It's atmosphere is so thin that it doesn't provide much protection.
Levels of cosmic radiation on the Mars surface are similar to the ISS, and astronauts can only spend a couple of years or so total on the ISS before they run out of their lifetime limit of radiation exposure according to the guidelines for exposure in radiation environments. It may also depend on whether they fly during solar minimum or solar maximum. The details depend on the age of the astronaut and their sex, as men and women are affected differently in the States. In ESA and Russia then women and men have the same maximum doses.
I can't seem to find a table of how many years typically it is for astronauts of various ages and sexes, though I'm sure I've seen one somewhere. Will update this if I find one - or do say in comments if you know where to find it.
But techy details here:
http://prediccs.sr.unh.edu/paper...
The ISS orbits within the Earth's magnetic field so is protected from the worst effects of solar storms. Those can be extremely high levels of radiation. An astronaut unprotected in deep space or on Mars could die if exposed to a solar storm for a few hours unless they got immediate emergency intensive hospital care. So solar storm shelters are essential for any deep space exploration.
You would be protected from solar storms in a cave such as have been found on both Moon and Mars. Or by covering your habitat with several meters of "soil" (regolith, rocks "gardened" by meteorites over billions of years into a soil like consistency).
We are protected from cosmic radiation by the ten tons per square meter Earth's atmosphere. They are hardly deflected by the Earth's magnetic field at all, magnetic fields provide no protection from them. But they are constant in flux, you don't get "galactic storms" like the solar storms. Many of the particles still get through as you can see in a cloud chamber, particles traveling at close to the speed of light. But human bodies are adapted to tolerate that low level of radiation so they are no problem for us.
So the reason Mars has more cosmic radiation and more radiation from solar storms is because it has almost no magnetic field to protect from solar storms and almost no atmosphere to protect from cosmic radiation and give additional protection from solar storms.
Not a massive meteorite strike. Everyone says this, but if you look into the topic closely, it's not possible. We haven't been hit by anything this big for over three billion years. The big craters...
(more)Not a massive meteorite strike. Everyone says this, but if you look into the topic closely, it's not possible. We haven't been hit by anything this big for over three billion years. The big craters on the Moon, Mars and its moons, Mercury, a very old and huge eroded crater on Earth also - they all date back to over three billion years. Back then the solar system was still settling down into its current state - towards the end of the "late heavy bombardment".
The reason is that Jupiter protects us, so the simulations suggest. It breaks up really big comets, or they hit Jupiter or the sun or get ejected from the solar system before they get into orbits close enough to ours to be any problem.
They'll say - look at the meteorite strike that ended the dinosaur era!
But we are not dinosaurs. Turtles, crocodiles, alligators, small mammals, flying dinosaurs (the birds), dawn redwood trees, pine trees, many lifeforms survived that impact. And humans with the barest minimum of our technology are able to survive anywhere from the Arctic to the hotttest of deserts, or in tropical rainforests. We would survive, some of us, a giant impact like that.
And it is also extremely unlikely that we are hit by anything even that big. We have found all the 10 km diameter asteroids between Jupiter and the Sun already. Found 90% of the 1 km ones also. The 10 km ones happen only every 100 million years. And most of those are found leaving only ones that are currently way beyond Jupiter which also means we'd get a bit of warning at least.
So - that's both extremely unlikely - only 1 in 100 million in the next decade, perhaps less. And also would not make us extinct.
A supernova also would not make us extinct. None near enough to be deadly to earth anyway. But we are also protected by our atmosphere, and there would be many people on the other side of the world at the time. Same also applies to a gamma ray burst. And both very unlikely. The galaxy is a hundred thousand light years in diameter - so the next supernova is almost certain to be far too far away to harm us - and gamma ray bursts are very focused. and would need to be pointed directly at us - which again is very unlikely.
And - probably would be at least a fair few people in submarines, very hard to think of any disaster that could kill everyone in submarines. Tsunami are a surface phenomenon and a hundred meters or so below the surface you wouldn't even know it is happening chances are.
A giant supervolcano eruption like Yellowstone wouldn’t make us extinct either. It’s a disaster in the immediate vicinity, an estimated 90,000 would die. Globally the Main effect is global cooling for about ten years. If it happened without warning, many would die but we would not go extinct. With a couple of years of warning, we could prevent nearly all the deaths from starvation by planting different crops and by storing up food that is otherwise used to feed cattle or to produce ethanol, in the year or two before the eruption. For details see my answer to What will really happen when the Yellowstone supervolcano erupts?
As for black holes, well there can't be many mini black holes in the universe or we'd see stars blinking out. No large ones near to the sun, as we'd spot them by the accretion disk.
And not likely to create one ourselves, because the galaxy has natural particle accelerators the size of stars and larger - the fast particles they create which hit Earth regularly don't make mini black holes, or if they do, they are harmless - and we are nowhere close to duplicating those energy levels. We'd need to be able to build something like CERN larger than a star before it's a concrn.
That leaves, diseases. But you generally get a few immune to it if it is a natural disease.
It would be possible surely to genetically engineer some bug to intentionally make us extinct- but a few people would be immune, and there would also be others that never are contacted. If nothing else, then the uncontacted tribes, which still exist in a few islands and forests, would emerge from their forests bewildered to an uninhabited world :), That would make a fun sci fi story though I don't think it is likely in reality.
Climate change won't do this. It's effects are much exaggerated by a few people who go over the top, opposite to the climate skeptics, climate excessers ??
See for instance, How Guy McPherson gets it wrong
You also hear that we can turn Earth into Venus through climate change. This just can't happen. We would need to release and burn many times the entire global inventory of coal, oil, methane etc. We couldn't do it even if we never took any precautions.
That leaves things we can do to ourselves.
The idea of an AI intelligence taking over the world, well I don't find that plausible at all. Here I'm voicing my personal view and opinion.
I think we are a long way away from that, indeed that we will never build computers that can understand truth in the way a human can do. Indeed if we do have strong AI, I don't think it will be through programming, but rather through genetics, biology, or some such. Or some approach that is somehow part biology, part machine. Which would involve many ethical issues. E.g. enhancing the intellectual capacity of a whale and giving it the ability to speak like a human - is that an acceptable thing to do? What kind of life would such a creature live - would itnot potentially be very unhappy and miserable? Anyway we aren't close to that capability yet AFAIK.
Why Strong Artificial Intelligences Need Protection From Us - Not Us From Them
I can't see this happening within ten years for ethical reasons.
As for nanotechnology - we could make tiny nanomachines, already do. But we are nowhere near able to make a nanite - a nano replicating machine. Nowhere near.
We can't even build a "clanking replicator" - a factory or solar panel or some other big machine or device able to create a copy of itself. The advances in 3D printing take us partly there, but still need humans to source the materials they use, and to build the copy of the printer, as well as not being quite at the stage of printing out computer chips.
That could happen, nanoreplicators, see no reason technically why not. But surely not in just ten years. Don't think that is long enough to get to a "clanking replicator" many steps to be filled in though there are ideas about how we could do it.
The one thing that I do think needs great care is life itself. Experiments like this one:
Synthetic bug given 'fewest genes' - BBC News
And particularly
That's DNA with six bases instead of four.
The researchers take great care, and I'm sure will continue to do so.
The thing is we don't know that DNA based life is optimal. We have only the one example, and there is no way that life could have explored the entire solution space when DNA evolved. It could easily be a "local maximum" that seems optimal because evolution had a bit of a blind spot and never explored some particular direction. This can definitely happen with higher animals, e.g. Australian marsupials never evolved into mammals Could that have happened with microbes also, that Earth life has never evolved some more optimal form of life that we could either make in a laboratory or find on another planet?
As an example of how non DNA based life could be better than DNA life - it could require smaller cells (DNA life though it works is Rube Goldberg in its complexity and life that can work with less complexity could be much smaller) meaning it needs less resources and can reproduce more quickly. It could have a more efficient faster metabolism. It could have a biochemistry that is in some way more robust to environmental hazards. It could be better at photosynthesis - just a few percent improvement, if DNA life can't match it, could mean that it takes over through an exponential process, from green algae in the sea, basis of much of the marine food chain.
It could produce chemicals poisonous to us as a byproduct - like BMAA which is possibly implicated in Alzheimers misincorporated in place of l-serine which it resembles quite closely. There's no advantage to green algae to cause Alzheimers in humans and in the same way there need be no advantage to the XNA life to create chemicals poisonous to humans or other Earth life, it might just be that that's how it works. It could well be invisible to Earth life, not perceived as a threat because it doesn't produce any of the carbohydrates and peptides that our and cells defences respond to. So they don't respond to anything except the actual physical trauma. It might just live for instance in our stomachs, linings of our lungs, mouths, on our skin, and our body does nothing to stop it, and then harm us either by eating us directly, or by chemicals it produces. It doesn't need to harm humans to be a hazard. If it harms any of the lifeforms we depend on, it could be just as problematical, and either lead to our extinction or severely diminish the habitability of the Earth for humans.
Exponential growth would start slowly, but then continue more and more rapidly - and it is surely low probability in the first place, Bevertheless, it could potentially in theory happen in a decade. E.g. that some form of life is created that can survive on and in humans as well as other animals that our immune system doesn't recognize and produces chemicals harmful to us. One of the applications of artificial life is the possibility of using it to make implants that our bodies won't reject, so that's a line of research that if the researchers were careless could lead directly to a lifeform that could be harmful to humans and hard to protect against. Again not saying we shouldn't follow this research, just saying it needs care and if it was done very carelessly it could have the effect described.
For that reason also, as well as others, I think we need to take great care returning samples from another planet that may have life in them. It's not likely that we can return a sample from Mars before 2025, because it would take at least a decade just to pass all the laws needed to permit such a sample return, and that process is not started yet.
So - though a low probability, I think that's one of the few things that could make us extinct. Also genetic engineering. Both could be really good positive things, so I'm not saying we must never do these things. But they need a great deal of care. Humans have never been able to do such things, and past experience of doing other things may not be a reliable guide.
Tiny probability. But when existential risks are concerned, we have to consider tiny probabilities.
The good news is that these are things we can do something about by making sure we take care.
There are other possible risks, and some time I'll expand this to add a section to look into those too, check them all off. See Nick Bostrom's list. Existential Risks
But it is a bit out of date. For instance he mentions runaway global warming, which is now known not to be possible through just burning fossil fuels etc. Perhaps he wrote this at a time when a scientist had just published research that for a year or two seemed to show that it was possible.
It gives an idea of some of the things that some people have thought needs to be looked into. The ones I mention here are the ones that seem closest to possible. His list is not just of human extinction events but things that could permanently reduce life prospects.
Also, it is based on the ideas of post humanism, that in future mind uploading would be possible, on the idea of super intelligent programs etc. If you don't think any of those are possible, as I don't, then many of the things in the list are things you don't think could happen. If you think those are possible, well his list will suggest other future possibilities. Some of the transhumanists think we could achieve some kind of a runaway technological event they call the "singularity" which would happen in the near future - that depends on this idea of super intelligent computer programs. If you are a believer in this, then you'd think we could become extinct as a result of a badly programmed superintelligence taking over the world. For me that's just science fiction, as explained in Why Strong Artificial Intelligences Need Protection From Us - Not Us From Them, and a couple of other articles linked to from that one.
Here is an article I wrote about: How To Keep Earth Safe - Samples From Mars Sterilized Or Returned To Above Geostationary Orbit - Op Ed
And about asteroid impacts Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
You might also be interested in my answer to Is it true that a neutron star will hit the Earth in 75 years from now? The answer is No, vastly improbable, but is fun to look at.#
I've now written this up as a rather longer article goes into more possibilities here
The larger version used for Lee Sedol used 280 GPUs and 1920 CPUs according to this article: AlphaGo and AI Progress
List of configurations here
I don't know how much memory it used.
I don't think computers will be able to pass the Turing test and have conversations in which they are indistinguishable from humans.
I don't think that we'll make a program that can display a genera...
(more)I don't think computers will be able to pass the Turing test and have conversations in which they are indistinguishable from humans.
I don't think that we'll make a program that can display a generalized understanding of the world. Yes, can play go, but doesn't know what go pieces are. I don't think "deep learning" will solve this. At some point the program will trip up and make it easy to spot that it doesn't understand what it is doing.
Anything that requires the program to "genuinely understand" something I think will beyond the reach of computers. We will gradually understand better ourselves where that distinction is. For instance, it used to be thought that the game of Go required genuine understanding, even for amateur level - but apparently not.
For background about why I think this, see Why Strong Artificial Intelligences Need Protection From Us - Not Us From Them
Yes they have, this is the HERRO study.
They came to the conclusion that this would get as much work done as three missions to the surface.
To Explore Mars With Likes Of Occulus Rift & Virtuix Omni ...
(more)Yes they have, this is the HERRO study.
They came to the conclusion that this would get as much work done as three missions to the surface.
I don't know why NASA is so pushing the idea of humans on the surface. Because we are looking for life on Mars and human occupied spaceships can't possibly be sterilized to the same standards as robots for surface operations - especially if you consider the possibility of a crash. After a crash of a human occupied spaceship on Mars - I'd have thought that it would be the end of planetary protection of Mars.
We could find something unique there. Example, it might have early life that on Earth was made extinct by DNA based life. There is no sign on Earth of the lifeforms that must have evolved before DNA which is far too complex to be the first form of life on our planet. If that life still exists on Mars, then introducing Earth life could make it extinct before we can study it.
And more generally, we have often as humans made the mistake of introducing life to new continents, accidentally or on purpose, here on Earth. Why do the same on Mars before we have a chance to study it properly to see what the impact would be?
Right, first ants and roaches need oxygen to breathe. There's no oxygen in the Mars atmosphere, and very little atmosphere either - it's a near vacuum. So we don't expect to find them there. Also w...
(more)Right, first ants and roaches need oxygen to breathe. There's no oxygen in the Mars atmosphere, and very little atmosphere either - it's a near vacuum. So we don't expect to find them there. Also we have analogues of Mars on Earth,
Microbial Oasis Discovered Beneath the Atacama Desert - Astrobiology Magazine
These places are so dry that there's no higher life at all, only microbes.
So, we expect only microbes on Mars also, for most of the habitats, even if higher forms of life evolved there in the past. That's by analogy with Earth life, and because Mars is more inhospitable to life than even our harshest deserts.
Microbes can also form biofilms, and mats, so those also could occur, often a mix of many different microbes working together symbiotically.
However there are some lichens that may be able to grow on Mars. As they also can grow on Earth in places like that - in Antarctica, so long as there is enough moisture vapour in the air - and on Mars the air reaches 100% humidity at night because of the huge temperature differences - for 200 days of the year even in the equatorial regions - their "tropics" it gets so cold at night that CO2 condenses out of the atmosphere as dry ice. In the morning as it warms up then it is still 100% humidity and you get ice left momentarily on the surface as frost (it gets trapped in the dry ice) - well when it's 100% humidity, lichens like this may be able to grow on Mars. They do okay in Mars simulation chambers on Earth if partially shaded from the UV radiation - metabolize and photosynthesize slowly - so might be able to do okay on Mars in semishade, e.g. "huddling" in cracks in a boulder.
Lichen on Mars - Astrobiology Magazine
As for higher life - well lichen is a combination of a fungus and an algae - and the fungal component is able to survive in these simulation chambers because it gets oxygen from the algae component, just enough to get by.
There are also minute lifeforms that can manage without oxygen at any point in their life cycle. Species of Loricifera
They look like miniature jellyfish in a protective shell, are a mm in size, and never use oxygen at any point in their life cycle
First oxygen-free animals found
So - it's possible to have tiny animals that don't use oxygen at all. So - I would say that animal lifeforms not ruled out on Mars. There are many different habitats there.
One especially interesting one for me: the flow like features in Richardson's crater.
The interesting thing about this habitat, if it exists, is that according to one of the two most likely seeming models, it starts as fresh water at 0 C (most ideas for water on Mars involve very salty water), originally in a thin layer up to a couple of cms thick below the ice at the top of this slope. Perhaps a few tens of cms below a surface layer of clear ice. It forms briefly in late spring, spreads out and takes up salt and other materials and flows down the slope. Could this be exploited by something more complex than microbes and perhaps lichens?
We don't know if that's the true situation there. The alternative model is that it forms due to liquid on ice / rock boundaries only a few microns thick. But the cms thick layers form in Antarctica below the ice in similar conditions, so should form on Mars if it does have clear ice. Whether Mars has layers of clear ice is the big question here. A similar process causes the Martian geysers with explosions of gas from below thin clear layers of dry ice, so it does have clear areas of dry ice, most are agreed. The question is whether it also has clear areas of water ice later in the season in the debris from those dry ice geysers.
There are many other potential habitats on Mars. It could have subsurface water heated by geothermal heating, maybe with hydrogen sulfide, which life can use, maybe hydrogen, eaten by methanogens explaining the methane plumes. It could have underground caves with various complex chemical environments different from the surface. So those also might have forms of life unique to the cave type.
It's a very complex diverse planet and now that we can image it on sub-meter scales from orbit, we have found many seasonal changes. So it will take a long time before we explore it thoroughly.
So yes, I think it's at least possible that there are tiny animals on Mars like the ants and roaches - but most likely living in water as it would be very hard for them to survive running around on the surface with no air to breathe as the atmosphere is almost non existent, equivalent to a laboratory vacuum.
As for detecting them - well - we would need to go right up to the habitats they live in. The problem there is sterilizing our spacecraft well enough so that they can contact liquid water without introducing Earth life to it. That's a major challenge. So far we have not yet managed to sterilize any spacecraft 100%. So it's done on the basis of probability. I'm not sure how this will play out - we don't currently have any plans to send robots to investigate any of these proposed habitats close up.
ExoMars I think will be the most carefully sterilized spacecraft since Viking, and does have as a goal to search for present day life, not just past life. But not sure if it is sterilized to the level where it could explore an actual liquid habitat - that's a huge challenge.
It's only looking in the equatorial regions. These are amongst the most unlikely places to look on Mars, though even there, there is liquid water - now pretty much confirmed. Curiosity found evidence for water beneath the sand dunes as it drove, from l0oking at atmospheric humidity. Most think this liquid water is not habitable because at various times of day it is either too salty, or too cold (reaches a habitable salinity and temperature but only seperately, not both at once), but one investigator, Nilton Renno, thinks that biofilms could ptoentially modify it to make it into a habitable environment.
It could potentially find present day life, and is designed to look to see if it is there, although its primary goal is past life. But this is amongst the least likely places to find multicellular life, except just possibly lichens.
There are ideas for rovers to go to more habitable regions of Mars
Our robots could certainly see ants and suchlike if there were any moving around on the surface close to where they are - and have seen nothing - but nobody expected they would for the reasons I've just given.
We couldn't see them from orbit, our instruments are not quite that high in resolution.
You can find out about the habitats on Mars here:
Yes totally agree. I've often written about this. I think many don't realize quite how hostile to life Mars is.
Before we have the technology to colonize Mars we'd first get to the point where it i...
(more)Yes totally agree. I've often written about this. I think many don't realize quite how hostile to life Mars is.
Before we have the technology to colonize Mars we'd first get to the point where it is really easy to build a sea city.
The Seasteading Institute | Opening humanity's next frontier - this is far far easier to make self sustaining than a space colony.
Indeed for equivalent of space colonies, we'd have one that floats on the sea, takes in nothing except the sea water, and the air to breathe, and creates all its own food. Maybe imports some rocks. Probably extracts metals from the seawater.
A seasteading as completely self sufficient as that is pie in the sky at the moment. But self sufficient space colonies are like that, and in addition you have to create all your own air to breathe, have to hold in the atmosphere with ten tons per square meter outwards pressure, have to protect from cosmic radiation, the gravity may not be right for us (we don't know yet), and you have to make your own spacesuits and build it so it can be maintained and repaired by astronauts in spacesuits.
That's the worst of all, outside is a vacuum or as near as. Whenever you need to do anything to fix your habitat you have to don a spacesuit - and if you don't have a spacesuit or something happens to it, you can't get out of your habitat.
If anything happens to your habitat - it's not like on Earth where if your house burns down, you just rush out into the garden. On Mars you have to get into spacesuits, and if you can't find them, you've had it. There is nowhere habitable at all except your house, and other habitats - and they are only habitable so long as the many intricate machines that keep it running continue to work properly.
Nobody has ever tried to colonize anywhere remotely as hostile to life as that. There have been ideas to colonize the sea bed - far easier place to live - but they have come to nothing so far.
There are many places you can colonize on Earth. The Sahara desert is nearly as big as the US yet we don't colonize it. That would be a great place to make more habitable as it is gradually encroaching on the rest of Africa, they are doing their best to stop its advance, but it's a big job.
Nobody thinks of living permanently at the top of the highest mountains where it is extremely cold and windy, and there is too little oxygen to breathe. There are many uninhabited deserts and remote islands on Earth and they are all far far more habitable than Mars.
The only way it could work is to have a pyramid where you have maybe a hundred people on Earth to support every person on Mars.
I think that's true of all space settlement at present. Just because it's not very habitable out there. If we don't colonize deserts, why would it make it any easier to colonize a desert if it has a near vacuum or total vacuum in place of an atmosphere? Surely that would be a far far harder place to live.
I'm not at all anti space settlement. I just think that at present stage of technology it has to be done on this basis, in the same way that we do settlement in Antarctica - a base, supported from more hospitable places, because it is of scientific interest, or interest for recreation, or whatever reason - we support them because we feel that what they are doing is worth supporting.
When we haven't even got space settlement working in that sense, as settlements with support from Earth - far far too soon to think about just colonizing for its own sake .
I also think we need to take especial care with Mars. Because it is so like Earth in its early solar system and may be habitable today also for some forms of life. This makes it of exceptional interest. It would be a huge scientific tragedy for biology, if there is some unique form of life, maybe early life, on Mars and we either destroy it before we can discover it, or discover it only to realize that we have introduced (say) a more advanced lifeform to Mars in an irreversible way and that it will inevitably go extinct. Or many other possibilities where we might deeply regret introducing Earth life to Mars when it is too late to do anything about it.
It's not as if humans never make mistakes. Though very clever, even the cleverest people in the past have made many mistakes, especially biological, introducing species that cause problems. And we have never had this capability before, to transfer life from one planet to another.
This is a mistake that we just must not make, in my view as someone who loves science - to go to Mars only to find life we brought there ourselves, and with the indigenous life either extinct, or doomed to extinction.
And we don't know enough to decide yet. Meanwhile there are many other places we can build space settlements. We can try settlements on the Moon or using materials from the asteroid belt. They have a better chance of success as there's a reason for being there - materials they can mine of benefit to Earth for instance. And could have scientific outposts throughout the solar system.
Just - why so much focus on "colonizing" such a barren place, vacuum for atmosphere, cold as Antarctica, perchlorates in the dust poisonous to humans, global dust storms, can't go anywhere without a full body pressurized spacesuit. I think many half expect it to be like "Barsoom" although they know that in reality it is nothing like that. It's much more like the Moon than it is like Earth.
The red colour just indicates iron oxides, it doesn't mean it is habitable or Earth like. The soil can grow Earth crops if you have water and a pressurized greenhouse (far more robust than any Earth greenhouse as it has to withstand a ton or more of outwards pressure per square meter even if pressurized at a tenth of Earth atmosphere). But the gray lunar soil is also excellent for growing crops.
I wonder if there would be less interest in Mars if it was grey like the Moon or totally white? Or blue? Somehow coloured in such a way that it doesn't look like an Earth desert.
It is so cold it would be totally white if it wasn't that it is also so dry that there isn't enough ice to cover the planet.
See for instance my:
No Simple Genetic Test To Separate Earth From Mars Life - Zubrin's Argument Examined
There are some microbes able to create single species ecosystems. So they should survive just fine introduced on their own to a new planet without life, if it is habitable for them.
This is one of them
Chroococcidiopsis - MicrobeWiki
It's a real survivor. Probably helped bring oxygen to our atmosphere. Doesn't need oxygen, can survive just fine in a CO2 atmosphere.
It can survive just about anything you throw at it, it's a polyextremophile. Including high levels of radiation, fresh water, extremes of salinity, cold of Antarctica, heat of a hot spring, dessication in deserts. It doesn't need any other life to survive, just a bit of CO2, sunlight and rock and it's happy. It's also just fine in warm tropical seas or fresh water.
Leave it for a few million years on a planet with a CO2 atmosphere and you get oxygen in plenty.
But - note there are side effects. On Earth then when this microbe or others like it started to grow, they took all the CO2 out of the atmosphere, pretty much, which cooled down the planet. Luckily that's when our sun was getting hotter, so the end result was that the planet stayed much the same temperature.
So though some have suggested using this to introduce oxygen to Mars (Greening of the Red Planet), it only makes sense as part of a massive mega engineering scheme involving introducing greenhouse gases to Mars to keep it warm, or giant mirrors in space to double the amount of sunlight. Because an Earth like atmosphere would not have nearly enough warming effect to keep Mars warm. Also humans can't breath a CO2 / oxygen atmosphere because CO2 is poisonous to us above 1% in the atmosphere, even if you have plenty of oxygen to breathe.
But you talked about a planet like Earth, not one like Mars. So - if you mean early Earth, so nitrogen, and CO2, but no oxygen- well this would help make it Earth like. But better not introduce it too soon or the planet might go into a deep freeze and maybe never recover.
Some people think that life automatically makes any planet more habitable for itself. If that was the case, just seed anything and it would become a more habitable planet for at least that type of life.
But - though there are many feedback cycles going on that do help to keep our climate stable, and Earth is certainly in a good place now in that respect, that's the weak Gaia hypothesis, I think there is plenty of reason to question the stronger hypothesis. There may also be a large element of luck. Perhaps sometimes life can be the agent for its own destruction too.
See Lucky Planet: Why Earth is Exceptional
In the case of Earth, I don't think it's necessarily the case that a "rewind" would end up in such a good place as it did. Might be that either the oceans boil away and it turns into a Venus - not something that can happen now but could have happened if it had never developed photosynthetic life, or if the photosynthesis that developed didn't create oxygen (we have several alternatives on Earth including the haloarchaea that turn the red sea read that don't produce anything much just act like our eyes do when we see light, use that as a source of energy - and other photosynthetic lifeforms that produce SO2 from H2S).
Or it might lead to a frozen Earth at least for a large part of its existence if it was introduced too soon, which might be the case if you introduced Chroococcidiopsis to Earth really early on.
So, you have to be careful terraforming planets :). Maybe if we study exoplanets with life on them, we can find out more and learn how it works for those.
It was also a very long process for Earth - things like waiting for various lifeforms to evolve, billions of years, and slow changes from time to time over hundreds of millions of years. And you need to plan ahead also, if it's a young Earth think about what happens when the sun gets brighter, if it's an old one, what happens when it goes Red Giant etc.
You can speed it up probably with megatechnology or genetic engineering or whatever - but if you can do faster terraforming - what about faster accidental unterraforming? It seems to suggest more changes to go wrong as well as right.
See also my Trouble With Terraforming Mars
As for trying to recreate what happened on Earth - well we only have half the picture. Our understanding goes back to primitive DNA based life - but the smallest DNA based cell is just incredibly complex. DNA, translated to messenger RNA with a huge complex molecular machine with error correction, then that translated back to proteins, using another complex molecular machine and translation table, and numerous other complex things going on in every single cell. Life can't have started like that. But we don't know how it started, and there's a big gap, lots of theories, but we are nowhere near being able to "evolve" our own new forms of life in the lab, can only tinker with the life we already have
So, we couldn't seed your planet with whatever was on early Earth because we don't know what that was, not yet anyway (perhaps we might find out on Mars or through early Earth meteorites on the Moon or in some other way). We have to seed with later lifeforms, which may or may not be suitable. (And even if we could seed with whatever came earlier, then who is to say that it would be a success the second time around after all the accidents of evolution that would follow?).
Basically we are too young and inexperienced a species to do stuff like this quite yet I think :).
Not ASAP for sure. In the case of Mars, possibly never to the surface, depending what we find, though to orbit could be done at an early stage.
For the Moon, there aren't that many issues with send...
(more)Not ASAP for sure. In the case of Mars, possibly never to the surface, depending what we find, though to orbit could be done at an early stage.
For the Moon, there aren't that many issues with sending humans there. Main thing is that we have a golden opportunity right now to study the lunar atmosphere. It has a very thin "atmosphere" where the atoms are mainly ballistic, hardly hit each other. Yet we can learn a lot from studying it. For instance if there is ice at its poles - where does it come from? Does it come from Earth's geotail of water vapour - or from interplanetary space, or from comet collisions on the Moon for instance.
Because the atmosphere is so thin, then if you land humans there, the rocket exhausts would totally overwhelm the atmosphere, making these studies very difficult.
Right now, it's several decades since the lunar landings, apart from the Chinese one of course, but that didn't have a huge impact on the lunar atmosphere. So it is an ideal time to do this study.
We could also have rules about the type of propellants used for landing on the Moon and taking off again. Not much propellant is needed because of its low gravity and as you can see from the size of the lunar module. If you can use low mass fuel such as hydrogen and oxygen rather than heavy mass solid propellants, then that dissipates more quickly so has less impact on the lunar atmosphere.
Apart from that - well the surface of the Moon is large, and any contamination the astronauts bring will be localized to the landing spot - since it has no winds or dust storms to move it about.
There are no regulations currently to stop you landing anywhere on the Moon. But some places may be sensitive to humans, e.g. the ice at the poles, might want to keep some of it off limits so that it can be studied in a pristine state.
So in the case of the Moon ASAP is fine except for this suggestion that we should do robotic studies of its atmosphere before we land rockets in a big way, and avoid use of heavy molecule fuels. And some areas may need protecting. It's also been suggested that historical landing sites need protection, that you can't just land next to the Apollo 11 landing site and walk up to it, walk over their footsteps etc. Some kind of exclusion zone around the first landing sites for historical reasons.
In the case of Mars though it's much trickier.
Even for its moons Phobos and Deimos - they are rather small, just a few kms in diameter. Humans walking over them would probably cover the entire surface in footprints and the ISS dumps tons of material to Earth's atmosphere every year, so a human settlement anywhere would surely have a large garbage heap next to it within a year or two of occupation.
I think it's best to have experience of human missions to the Moon before landing on Phobos and Deimos to get an idea of how much impact humans have on places they visit for long term settlement, and whether there are ways this can be minimized.
For Mars surface, then it's an interconnected system with winds, and global dust storms that cover the entire planet. So though it's been suggested that humans would only contaminate the part they land on - I'm dubious about that myself. Carl Sagan first brought this up. He pointed out that the iron oxides in the dust storms are very effective at screening out UV light and a microbial spore imbedded in a dust grain could be carried anywhere on Mars in the hundreds of miles per hour winds.
So, I don't see myself how a human habitat, complete surely with big garbage pile eventually larger than the habitat itself in mass, can possibly keep its contamination by Earth microbes to just the landing site - unlike the Moon where this is definitely possible.
Of course we don't want to introduce Earth life to Mars since the objective for going there, one of the main things we want to do, is to find out if there is any present day or past Mars life. And the surface is no longer thought to be sterile as was thought a decade ago. There are now numerous ideas for possible habitats there, which have to be investigated, and much of it is already classified as "special regions" where life is possible on the surface, or at least, has not yet been ruled out.
So - I can't 'see COSPAR passing a human mission to Mars surface, especially taking account of the possibility of a hard landing on an unintended site on Mars, leavaing astronaut bodies, food, water, air, scattered across the surface to be spread in the Martian dust storms. The strong winds can only pick up small grains the size of cigarrette ash. Most stuff would just stay where it feel but there would be many opportunities for microbial spores to spread after a hard landing.
And Mars life could be very vulnerable to Earth life - it could be tough, but coulud be vulnerable. For example if it is some earlier form of life, say only RNA based and using ribozymes instead of ribosomes - tiny cells maybe as narrow as 10 nm in diameter - well such life doesn't exist on Earth any more (unless those are right that say it survives as nanobes, a minority fview). So presumably DNA based life made it extinct. So same could happen on Mars before we have a chance to study it.
If we do find something as interesting as that on Mars then some astroibiologists at least would say we have to leave Mars to the Martians, even if only microbes, and study it only, and remove all traces of our contamination when that's practical.
So - landings on Mars should be biologically reversible until we understand it better. But it's a little hard to see how a human landing could be biologically reversible.
Instead we could send astronauts to orbit to study it.
Or we could study it via robots from Earth. I don't think there has been a careful comparison study but we might send humans anyway because of the human interest.
As well as these issues, there are issues with achieving a closed system, or reasonably closed system, reducing need for supply from Earth every few months as for the ISS, and also developing systems reliable enough to last for years without the ability to supply replacement parts from Earth as so often happens with the ISS. So those are practical reasons to do it not quite ASAP.
Can only really be sure that a system will work for the entire multi-year mission by testing in previous multi-year missions around Earth.
So could do multi-year missions to the Moon reasonably safely. Get back to Earth within a day or two rather than a few hours for case of ISS.
But it might be that it's only really safe to go to Mars after we've done a few of htose multi-year missions to the Moon. So that would mean a decade or so after the first multi-year missions to the Moon. Unless that is that we find a way to get to Mars and back in just a few weeks or even days.
Good question. I can't find a page that explains the Mars seasons really clearly in one place. Lots of information about bits and pieces of it, but hard to find the whole picture.
So here we go:
Firs...
(more)Good question. I can't find a page that explains the Mars seasons really clearly in one place. Lots of information about bits and pieces of it, but hard to find the whole picture.
So here we go:
First, Mars has a year that lasts for two Earth years. So each season is roughly twice as long as the corresponding Earth season.
It's axial tilt, by coincidence, is about the same as Earth's. This is very much a coincidence. Our Earth keeps the same tilt for billions of years, stabilized by the Moon. But Mars's tilt keeps changing. Sometimes it tilts so far that it has equatorial ice sheets.
Mars is tilted like the picture at top left at present. If it was like the one at top right, with a big ice sheet at the equator, and warm ice free poles, it would be very unlike Earth. The bottom one shows it tilted almost verticaly with the ice sheets much more extensive than they are now. See Changes in Tilt of Mars' Axis
Anyway right now its:
Mars axial tilt: 23.5°
Earth's axial tilt: 23.4°
It's one of those strange coincidences, like the Moon seeming the same size in our sky as the Sun. Mars has almost the same axial tilt, and it also almost the same day length as Earth. Even though its axial tilt keeps varying - and the Earth and Mars days also keep changing too. It's just a coincidence.
Anyway though it's day and axial tilt is similar to Earth, its orbit is very different. The eccentricity of Mars' orbit keeps changing a lot, unlike Earth's, which is always more or less circular. Mars' orbit is sometimes more circular than Earth's and sometimes very eccentric.
So, Mars has quite an eccentric orbit at present.
The result is that it is close to the sun for its Northern winter, and a long way from the sun for its southern winter (northern summer).
So the northern winter is much warmer its southern winter. It's also shorter because by Kepler's second law of equal areas swept out in equal times - when closer to the sun, it orbits the sun more quickly.
For the same reasons, the southern winters are much longer and colder.
Also, it just so happens that Mars is lumpier at its southern pole, while its northern pole is much lower elevation - it's the dried up bed of a huge ocean. Actually we don't know why it is that Mars has this big difference between the two hemispheres.
This is the puzzle of the Martian dichotomy. In this map, blue and green is low, orange and red is high. The region up to 60 degrees away from each pole is low around the North pole and high around the south pole.
In between there's a more complex region, with that big deep blue crater there Hellas basin, site of an ancient big impact, and the long gash to the left is Valles Marineres, which is where early Mars started to tear apart, the very beginning of continental drift but it never went any further and it never divided up into continental plates as happened on Earth..
It's not yet known why there's this difference in elevation. It could be one truly huge impact in the early solar system when the planets were still forming - around when our Earth's Moon formed, or many impacts, or some tectonic process - a bit like the plate tectonics on Earth. Martian dichotomy
Anyway so the result of all this is that the northern ice cap is both lower, and warmer, and the winter shorter And it doesn't vary so much in temperature, nevertheless, it shrinks and loses most of its ice in the northern summer. And in winter it is cold enough to have dry ice there.
The southern ice cap is much colder in winter, with thick layers of dry ice. You'd think it would be warmer in summer but because it is so much higher in elevation, then it's actually pretty cold in summer too, especially the polar regions. The ice doesn't melt, but its dry ice evaporates.
Actually the dry ice in the southern hemisphere produces the probably spectacular Martian Geysers when it gets hot enough. This is an artist impression, and no rover has ever been able to see this phenomenon. There are ideas to make a "geyser hopper" to study them in the future.
What happens is that the dry ice is semi-transparent. It lets the sunlight through and this then heats up a layer below the surface rather than the surface itself, through what is called the "solid state greenhouse effect".
This happens every Southern spring. As it warms up, the dry ice underneath is not under nearly enough pressure to form a liquid, but turns directly into gas. This leads to explosions of dry ice, so to the Martian geysers.
That's not the end of the story. After the geyser is done, you end up with these dark patches, which are particularly noticeable in a crater called Richardson crater. And they aren't static, they move, they extend fingers down the slopes, the so called "flow like features".
And as you see, these dark streaks spread out from the dots.
They grow at a rate of around 1.4 meters per Martian sol, so pretty fast for Mars.
Flow-like features on Dunes in Richardson Crater, Mars. - detail. This flow moves approximately 39 meters in 26 days between the last two frames in the sequence
All the models for these features, to date, involve some form of water.
Indeed the leading idea is that they form in a similar way to the Martian geysers - through the solid state greenhouse effect. This is later in the year. Though the surface is still very cold, far too cold for ice to melt - yet if the ice is clear enough, then the ice will melt below the surface, because the ice layers above trap the infrared. Ice of course turns into a liquid, not a gas, so it will just stay there. And ice is very insulating. It turns out that - so long as there is clear ice there, which is the big unknown - that then the ice will remain liquid overnight. So over a period of time a layer of liquid centimeters thick can form. Because it's trapped by the ice, it can be stable on Mars even though there is a near vacuum above the ice.
Of all the many suggestions for liquid water on Mars, this is the only one I know of that could potentially consist of ordinary reasonably fresh water - and what's more at zero degrees c or even warmer. It was like Wow, when I found out about this in Nilton Renno's survey paper of habitats that could exist on Mars. I don't know why it doesn't get much more publicity.
It's just as surprising as the warm seasonal flows, which we'll come to in a minute, indeed even more so, these happen in the bitterly cold southern sub polar region, the region around the area of permanent ice, about the most unlikely place you can think of for liquid water on Mars, if you don't take a look at the models and ideas behind it first.
There's another idea for how these fingers could form involving thin interfacial liquid water on ice / rock boundaries, which would merge and pool together to provide enough liquid to flow.
It all depends on whether Mars has clear ice. It's common on Earth. Here it is usually blue in colour like this.
If there is ice as clear as this forms in the Martian south pole region in Richardson's crater, then the models predict that we could have liquid water form there. Liquid water forms in similar conditions in Antarctica, about half a meter below the surface, where the ice is reasonably clear.
That then would explain the streaks. The water picks up salt and dirt and then flows out onto the surface from under the ice. Because it is so much more salty by then, it can stay liquid for long enough to start flowing down the slope.
So - water is very very rare on Mars. The conditions are such that ice turns directly into water vapour. If it does form liquid then it is close to boiling point and will dry quickly like clothes drying on your line on a sunny day.
Still, there are places where water could form.
Other places include on salt / ice interfaces, where the water can form, little mm or so scale droplets, but as Nilton Renno says, just a droplet of water is a "swimming pool for bacteria".
Or salt can take up water from the atmosphere as Phoenix first suggested. Then Curiosity discovered indirectly, that this can happen even in equatorial regions.
This subsurface liquid layer is thought to be sometimes warm enough for life in the dunes where Curiosity is exploring, but then too salty, and sometimes not so salty but then too cold. So it might not be habitable but Nilton Renno has said he thinks there is a possibility of habitable conditions even where Curiosity is, if in some way life exploits it, with biofilms or other ways of creating its own microclimate.
By the way there are flow like features in the Northern hemisphere too, but they form at much colder temperatures (rather paradoxically) and the explanations of these may or may not involve liquid water.
Seasonal processes in the Northern polar dunes with Flow Like Features. Time differences between the images are 22 days and 12 days. The final picture shows a long feature that formed new between the two images, and its length is 60 meters so it grew at a rate of at least 5 meters per day.
Much better known are the warm seasonal flows
Warm Season Flows on Slope in Newton Crater (animated)
These form in much warmer conditions, sun facing slopes, and they occur right down into the valles Marineres in the equatorial regions.
They were recently shown to include hydrated salts. So almost certainly formed by water in some sense. They are dark lines - which grow in spring, spread out in summer and fade in winter. However, they are not damp patches.Water would not be stable enough.
It's frustrating, a bit, the only camera we have able to photograph then well, comes close to the sunny side of Mars twice a day, on opposite sides of Mars - but its orbit is such that it always takes these photographs at around mid afternoon. That's the very worst time for looking for water. We'd like to photograph them close up in the early morning. Sadly, we can't do that, not unless we send another satellite to Mars able to to take similar photographs in the early morning. It's possible that liquid water could be detected there directly, on occasion, if only we could photograph them early in the morning.
Anyway apart from that, you get the frosts, many mornings in the Equatorial regions.
Ice on Mars Utopia Planitia. These frosts formed every morning for about 100 days a year at the Viking location.
Scientists believe dust particles in the atmosphere pick up bits of solid water. That combination is not heavy enough to settle to the ground. But carbon dioxide, which makes up 95 percent of the Martian atmosphere, freezes and adheres to the particles and they become heavy enough to sink. Even in equatorial regions it gets cold enough at night for this to happen for 200 days a year
Warmed by the Sun, the surface evaporates the carbon dioxide and returns it to the atmosphere, leaving behind the water and dust as this icy frost, which then soon evaporates.
Water is not stable in the equatorial region, even as ice, on the surface. And the atmosphere has very little water vapour. Nevertheless, at night the air cools down hugely - often it gets below the temperatures of dry ice at night even in the equatorial regions. And that's when the ice frosts form, as mixtures of ice and dry ice.
Then as the atmosphere warms up in the morning - it has hundred percent humidity because it is so cold,. even though there is hardly any water vapour there. So the frosts can remain until well into daylight.
Gilbert Levin has wondered if it is possible that life could somehow exploit this ice. If not, well it could exploit the 100% humidity directly. A team of biologists in DLR (German aerospace) have tested various lichens and cyanobacteria, and some, from places like Antarctica, very dry and cold places, are able to survive in Mars conditions and even metabolize and photosynthesize using only the night time humidity.
Now apart from that, there is one more thing that makes the Mars climate unusual - the often global dust storms.
They happen once every two years. They can form in hours, cover the planet in days, and then last for weeks before they dissipate.
You get strong winds, hundreds of miles an hour, and the rather charming dust devils.
Though these are not nearly as harmful as you would think. The dust is so fine it's about as fine as cigarette ash. The winds, though they are so fast, are winds in a near vacuum, and at their most powerful, they could just about manage to move an autumn leaf on Earth.
But Mars is covered in this very fine dust, fine as cigarette smoke. So great clouds of it get lifted up in these global dust storms.
The dust storms always happen in the Southern summer - remember that's the season on Mars when it is closest to the sun, and its much warmer than the northern summer.
They often start in Hellas basin.
And within a short time they may cover the entire planet like this.
Space Today Online - What We Know About Mars - Dust Storms
They block out 99% of the Mars sunlight when they are at their thickest.
Here is a photo showing progression of a dust storm as seen by Opportunity.
In the middle of this dust storm, less than 1% of the light that reaches the top of the Mars atmosphere made its way to the ground where Opportunity photographed it.
This gif animation by Emily Lakdawalla shows how the sun faded during the dust storm as viewed from Opportunity. There's a big gap at the end where the sun was too dark to do these images. See her post from 2007: Dust storm update: rovers still OK
Many dark streaks form seasonally on Mars. Most of these are thought to be due to dry ice and wind effects. This image shows an example, probably the result of avalanche slides and not thought to have anything to do with water:
Slope Streaks in Acheron Fossae on Mars - these streaks are thought to be possibly due to avalanches of dark sand flowing down the slope
They look a bit like the warm seasonal flows, but are easily distinguished by experts.
Mars also has sand dunes that move, much like they do on Earth. Indeed they move at about the same speed they do on Earth, which was rather surprising with the thinner air and lower gravity.
Advancing Dune in Nili Patera, Mars. Images taken nearly three years apart by the HiRISE camera on Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter.
This discovery shows that entire dunes as thick as 200 feet (61 meters) are moving as coherent units across the Martian landscape. The sand dunes move with about the same flux (volume per time) as dunes in Antarctica. This was unexpected because of the thin air and the winds which are weaker than Earth winds. It may be due to "saltation" - ballistic movement of sand grains which travel further in the weaker Mars gravity.
So - there are some similarities with Earth, but many things that are unique to Mars.
The biggest difference is that flowing water or pools are completely impossible on Mars at present, except briefly as flash floods or rapidly freezing over lakes after an asteroid or comet impact or a volcanic eruptions.
Though at times, as its axis tilts, it may be possible for liquid water to flow and be a permanent feature of its landscape.
The dry gullies on Mars were first thought by many scientists to be formed by activity of water. Nowadays, it is thought that recent gullies are formed by dry ice processes.
This hypothesis for recent gullies was confirmed, reasonably conclusively, when new sections of gullies were seen to form at temperatures far too low for water activity. So the only likely explanation is dry ice.
There's another phenomenon caused by dry ice too, on Mars, another thing we don't have at all on Earth
Dry Ice "Snowboards" on Mars - and Grooves on Mars may be result of blocks of dry ice sliding down slopes
These grooves are thought to be caused by "boulders" of dry ice rolling down the slopes. Because they are made of dry ice, they evaporate into the atmosphere when they reach the bottom, not even leaving a damp patch to freeze over.
But many of the older dry ice gullies, they now think, result from the action of water.
This hypothesis strong support in January 2015. They may well have been formed by floods of melt water associated with melting of glaciers that form when the Mars axis tilts beyond 30 degrees. This could have happened within the last two million years (between 400,000 and two million years ago).
Sharp-featured recent gullies (blue arrows) and older degraded gullies (gold) in the same location on Mars. These suggest cyclical climate change within the last two million years
Then further back in the early solar system, Mars probably had seas. They came and disappeared several times perhaps - this is an artist impression of the most recent one. It shows the low lying northern hemisphere from above the north pole.
At those times its atmosphere must have been thicker and it must have been warmer. Depending on its orbit, it's possible that the ocean was frozen over much of the time and only melted every two years in the northern summer.
There's a lot of debate about how much liquid water there was and to what extent it was covered in ice. If it had liquid water year round, it must have had potent greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, perhaps methane, because CO2 isn't nearly warm enough by itself to do this.
Back then it might have been quite habitable for algae, lichens, perhaps sea weed even if it evolved higher lifeforms.
Mars as it is now seems an unlikely place for life to evolve. But early Mars seems a place where life could have got off to a start rather easily.
Or else perhaps Mars was seeded by meteorites from Earth or even Mars seeded Earth with life. Mars was habitable first in the early solar system as it was first to form, and also our Earth got a sterilizing impact when the Moon formed at a time that Mars was probably very habitable.
If so, and if the life evolved to the stage where it became reasonably hardy, and especially if it got to the stage where it developed photosynthesis - it might still be there, and there are now many habitats known where it just possibly it might still survive in some form. Though most likely it would be microbes, at most lichens, because in similar places on Earth, despite the biodiversity of Earth life, there is not much life. Indeed quite often you get ecosystems consisting of a single species on Earth.
Of the Earth lifeforms, one of the most likely to live on Mars is Chroococcidiopsis - MicrobeWiki
This is one of the most hardy of all lifeforms on Earth. It might have been one of the main contributors of oxygen to our atmosphere when oxygen first formed. Over those billions of years it's developed an incredible number of metabolic pathways.
It can survive in almost any habitat. Give it salt water and it's just fine, yummy, "I know how to deal with that". Give it fresh water and it is just as at home. Hot springs, or nitrate caves - no problem. Driest deserts, coldest places like Antarctica. Even put it in a near vacuum Mars atmosphere and zap it with ultraviolet light, and it turns out it can handle that too, it's one of the microbes able to photosynthesize and metabolize in semishade, unprotected on the Mars surface using the 100% night time humidity. And it is one of the most radioresistant microbes, able to repair any DNA damage in real time and withstand high levels of cosmic radiation and solar storms. Rather puzzlingly since it never encounters those extreme conditions on Earth, but it may be a byproduct of its dessication resistance.
Yet it's also right at home in somewhere nice and warm - you find it on beaches, and in household water supplies and so forth in tropical places like Sri Lanka.
It's one tough cookie :).
Of all our Earth microbes, well there are several candidates that could be shared with Mars. But this must be one of the top ones. It seems likely it could survive a meteorite transfer to Mars - and then once there, it's one of the most likely to find a habitat easily, and because it is so widespread on Earth, it's got a decent chance of finding its way into debris from a giant impact on Earth.
Yet, it plays very nicely. It's a primary producer and doesn't need anything else except CO2, light, water and trace elements - it often forms single species ecosystems in deserts. Yet it's not going to eat Mars microbes or make them extinct, except possibly through competition. It might even be food for them, if they are compatible with it biologically. Of course it must have evolved a lot on Mars since it got there, if it is there.
None of this is proved. Nobody has yet discovered any microbe common between Earth and Mars. It could be that they have no lifeforms in common. 'But if they do, I wouldn't be surprised if this was one of them.
Or, perhaps Mars has some early form of life that hasn't yet evolved as far as Earth life, maybe RNA only life. If so - well I wonder also if perhaps Chroococcidiopsis would play nicely enough so that they could co-exist. Perhaps Mars could have both the toughest of microbes imaginable, along with some very fragile early life form, maybe even not based on DNA if it evolved separately on Mars?
So as with the seasons, life there also could be a mixture of the familiar -with a species that is related to Earth life - and unfamiliar with some form of Mars life, not related at all to Earth life.
That's just science fiction type speculation, but it maybe helps to give an idea of some of the range of possibility for what we could find there.
It's going to be a long time before we know for sure. For that reason I think we absolutely must have as top priority to preserve the Mars life and not make the mistake we have made so often on Earth of introducing foreign species without knowing what we are doing.
Nearly all the habitats I've described here are new ideas suggested or discovered only in the last decade or so. It's a rapidly evolving field and much of what I've just said may be way out of date again by the 2020s.
Here are some of my Science20 articles on related topics:
And many other answers here and articles on Science20
See also:
Yes, there was a wide scatter of possible positions for it during the flyby, but they were along a line that missed the Earth. In other words they had a pretty good idea of its position in all exce...
(more)Yes, there was a wide scatter of possible positions for it during the flyby, but they were along a line that missed the Earth. In other words they had a pretty good idea of its position in all except one linear dimension. That's how they could have such a large margin of error, and yet also be certain that it will miss Earth.
For an analogy, imagine you are driving along a road that goes past an airport, perhaps one where light aircraft land so you get quite close to it.
You may know that a plane is about to land but not know the time it will land exactly. Then you could predict it could be anywhere between several miles way, or passing just a few hundred meters over your head. But you'd also know it is going to miss you because your road doesn't cross the runway or any part of its flight path - though you don't kjnow where it will be along the flightpath or even if it will follow it exactly.
It's similar except that asteroids don't crash if their engines fail, so there is no chance at all of it hitting Earth.
The latest news is that they think it will miss by 3 million miles (5 million kilometers) - though the 15,000 km is still possible
There was a microphone on Phoenix too, but it was turned off - the idea was that it would capture sounds during the landing but then they found that there was a minute risk of this interfering with...
(more)There was a microphone on Phoenix too, but it was turned off - the idea was that it would capture sounds during the landing but then they found that there was a minute risk of this interfering with the landing sequence - just the scheduling of the commands - so they left it off. No descent images or sounds from Phoenix
Then they had an option to turn it on again once on the surface.
"Does Phoenix have a microphone to “hear” the sounds of Mars?
"Phoenix, like the 1999 Polar Lander, originally had a microphone to hear the sounds of the descent to Mars. It was part of the MARDI system which was turned off to due the small risk that it could trip a critical landing system. So far, no spacecraft has successfully captured the sounds of Mars. However, the European Space Agency’s orbiter Mars Express captured the sounds of Phoenix’s descent. You can check it out at: Listen to Phoenix descend. If the mission timeline permits, it is a possibility that the microphone will be activated , so stay tuned! "
Phoenix Mars Mission - Mission - FAQ
But I don't know if they did or not. My guess is not otherwise surely it would be possible to find the recording of what it heard?
Anyone know?
More about history of microphones on Mars:
Carl Sagan’s Dream of a Martian Microphone May Finally Be Real
First - yes that's in all the sutra traditions. The sutras talk about how when Buddha on the night he became enlightened, in the first watch:
(more)"When the mind was thus concentrated, purified, bright,...
First - yes that's in all the sutra traditions. The sutras talk about how when Buddha on the night he became enlightened, in the first watch:
"When the mind was thus concentrated, purified, bright, unblemished, rid of defilement, pliant, malleable, steady, & attained to imperturbability, I directed it to the knowledge of recollecting my past lives. I recollected my manifold past lives, i.e., one birth, two... five, ten... fifty, a hundred, a thousand, a hundred thousand, many eons of cosmic contraction, many eons of cosmic expansion, many eons of cosmic contraction & expansion: 'There I had such a name, belonged to such a clan, had such an appearance. Such was my food, such my experience of pleasure & pain, such the end of my life. Passing away from that state, I re-arose there. There too I had such a name, belonged to such a clan, had such an appearance. Such was my food, such my experience of pleasure & pain, such the end of my life. Passing away from that state, I re-arose here.' Thus I remembered my manifold past lives in their modes & details.
"This was the first knowledge I attained in the first watch of the night. Ignorance was destroyed; knowledge arose; darkness was destroyed; light arose — as happens in one who is heedful, ardent, & resolute. But the pleasant feeling that arose in this way did not invade my mind or remain.
That's in the sutras for sure. That's in the Pali canon, so from the earliest Therevadhan tradition.
So anyway - I read that as the barriers between past, present and future falling away. Not seeing time in such a linear way as we do. That the past is in some way here in the present and the present in the past and the future also in both and that at the moment when he became enlightened, he had deep insight into this. So it's not just the past and present, but how they relate to each other, how the present arose from the past. So whatever it was, much more than just a memory as we think of it.
I think that's a Mahayana way of looking at it though, as I have learnt about Buddhism mainly within the Tibetan traditions. So not sure how the Thervadhans think about it.
It's a good question! I know I haven't really answered it, just given perhaps a sidelight on it. I know that the topic of how actions and their consequences are passed through from past to present has been discussed a lot with many different schools of opinion there from scholars. And expect the same for this idea of memory of past lives.
Usually you have no memory at all of previous lives. Reincarnate Lamas - again not expected to remember their previous lives like the Buddha. And he warned his followers against trying to find out who they were in previous lives.
But as you say, the sutras say he remembered his own past lives .Also gave stories of his lives.
Buddha actually taught that the precise workings out of the laws of Karma is one of the four imponderables. It's one of the things that you can't sort out by reasoning about them and it is a distraction from the path to try to understand how it works exactly.
He says of one of the other four imponderables, the nature of the Buddha, that it is a bit like asking, when a fire is out, which way it went, whether east, or west or south or north.
This is the wikipedia article about it: Acinteyya
And this is from the old article about Karma in Buddhism. You can tell from this how karma is thought of in Buddhism, and I think the same would be said for the Buddha's understanding of his past lives.
"In the Buddhist view, the relationship between a single action and its results is dependent upon many causes and conditions, and it is not possible for an ordinary being to accurately predict when and how the results for a single action will manifest. Ringu Tulku Rinpoche states:
"Sometimes, in order to help us understand how particular actions contribute to particular kinds of result, such as how good actions bring about good results and how bad actions bring about bad results, the Buddha told stories like those we find in the Jataka tales. But things do not happen just because of one particular cause. We do not experience one result for every one thing that we do. Rather, the whole thing—the entire totality of our experience and actions—has an impact on what we become from one moment to the next. Therefore karma is not just what we did in our last life, it is what we have done in this life too, and what we did in all our lives in the past. Everything from the past has made us what we are now—including what we did this morning. Strictly speaking, therefore, from a Buddhist point of view, you cannot say that there is anything in our ordinary experience that is not somehow a result of our karma."
Bhikkhu Thanissaro explains:
"Unlike the theory of linear causality — which led the Vedists and Jains to see the relationship between an act and its result as predictable and tit-for-tat — the principle of this/that conditionality makes that relationship inherently complex. The results of kamma experienced at any one point in time come not only from past kamma, but also from present kamma. This means that, although there are general patterns relating habitual acts to corresponding results [MN 135], there is no set one-for-one, tit-for-tat, relationship between a particular action and its results. Instead, the results are determined by the context of the act, both in terms of actions that preceded or followed it [MN 136] and in terms one’s state of mind at the time of acting or experiencing the result [AN 3:99]. [...] The feedback loops inherent in this/that conditionality mean that the working out of any particular cause-effect relationship can be very complex indeed. This explains why the Buddha says in AN 4:77 that the results of kamma are imponderable. Only a person who has developed the mental range of a Buddha—another imponderable itself—would be able to trace the intricacies of the kammic network. The basic premise of kamma is simple—that skillful intentions lead to favorable results, and unskillful ones to unfavorable results—but the process by which those results work themselves out is so intricate that it cannot be fully mapped. We can compare this with the Mandelbrot set, a mathematical set generated by a simple equation, but whose graph is so complex that it will probably never be completely explored."
It's also related to the sixteen unwise reflections, which we tend to spend so much of our time entangled with:
What am I?
How am I?
Am I?
Am I not?
Did I exist in the past?
Did I not exist in the past?
What was I in the past?
How was I in the past?
Having been what, did I become what in the past?
Shall I exist in future?
Shall I not exist in future?
What shall I be in future?
How shall I be in future?
Having been what, shall I become what in future?
Whence came this person?
Whither will he go?
The Buddha states that it is unwise to be attached to both views of having and perceiving a self and views about not having a self. Any view which sees the self as "permanent, stable, everlasting, unchanging, remaining the same for ever and ever" is "becoming enmeshed in views, a jungle of views, a wilderness of views; scuffling in views, the agitation (struggle) of views, the fetter of views."
Note, the current version of the Four Noble Truths in wikipedia is also really poor. It doesn't even list the four truths in the lede, which is also very short. Before it had a list of the four truths, but rewritten with many mistakes.
The original version is here: Four Noble Truths
I and another editor tried for ages to get these two articles reverted but no success. (I got involved as a reader of these articles rather than a contributoer - the other editor was one of the contributors).
The new versions are supposedly simplified to make them easier for a modern reader to read, but in the process then they lose the essential teachings.
For instance the aim of the Buddhist path is not to just try to cease to exist as the current articles on the four noble truths and Nirvana suggest.
Cessation is the cessation of suffering, and its causes, not the cessation of the individual - which on realizing Nirvana you realize never existed in the first place in the sense you thought it was there, so there was nothing to cease existing.
You might also like my occasional blog posts about Buddhism: Some ideas about Buddhist teachings
There was a serious proposal to build one actually in 1980 as an upper atmosphere research station, half a kilometer or one kilometer in diameter. See Solar Thermal Aerostat Research Station (STARS)...
(more)There was a serious proposal to build one actually in 1980 as an upper atmosphere research station, half a kilometer or one kilometer in diameter. See Solar Thermal Aerostat Research Station (STARS) and the news story about it in the Washington Post:
"Solar Powered Balloon Station Proposed For the Edge of Space".
For an artist's impression of STARS, see Peter Elson's "Orion Shall Rise" painting, an illustration from Poul Anderson's novel of the same name, Orion Shall Rise, which features the STARS aerostat.
I wonder if it might actually be useful for the high altitude platform to transfer to your orbital airship for JP Aerospace's orbital airships?
The Van Allen radiation belt is a layer of charged particles trapped in the Earth's magnetic field. The ISS orbits inside it. It causes the aurora where it touches the Earth's atmosphere close to...
(more)The Van Allen radiation belt is a layer of charged particles trapped in the Earth's magnetic field. The ISS orbits inside it. It causes the aurora where it touches the Earth's atmosphere close to the north and south poles.
Actually two belts, inner one of protons, outer one of electrons.
Rendering of Van Allen radiation belts of Earth
It's damaging, but as with all radiation issues it depends how long you spend in the high radiation zones. The Apollo missions bypassed the regions of greatest radiation levels, and spent only an hour or two in the regions of lower radiation levels
Then on the return journey:
The dots there show ten minute intervals in the Apollo trajectory.
Got it here which explains in a lot more detail.Apollo and the Van Allen Belts He works it out at 0.016 rads for Apollo 11, which is a tenth of the amount they received for the entire mission of 0.16 rads, which we know because they wore dosimeters to keep track of their total radiation dose.
The spacecraft was of course shielded against the radiation as best they could given the weight restrictions.
Satellites that pass through the Van Allen belts in their orbits have to be hardened against them.
Well so long as they realize that science fictions often get things wrong. For instance describing thick drifts of dust on the Moon deep enough for an entire surface passenger vehicle to sink into,...
(more)Well so long as they realize that science fictions often get things wrong. For instance describing thick drifts of dust on the Moon deep enough for an entire surface passenger vehicle to sink into, or missions to the Moon with no contact to Earth until they get back (through misundersanding how the Heavyside layer works). Or spaceships traveling faster than light piloted by astronauts using sliderules.
Or further back, being fired to the Moon in a gun and surviving the launch.
In the area that interests me, then science fiction about Mars has over and over painted it as far more habitable than it is. For instance, the Barsoom novels, many of them written after scientists had already figured out Mars didn't have enough oxygen for humans to breath - that's an early result from the 1920s. Science fiction describing terraforming optimistically shows a process that can be completed in a few generatons rather than thousands of years. And with technology that is nowhere near up to the task. Because sci. fi. authors are permitted to fudge the numbers in interests of a good story.
But on the plus side fiction does engage people. And I'm something of a science fiction fan myself. It does fire the imagination.
But -it's not good for predicting the future. Sometimes it gets things right but just because so much sci. fi. is written then from time to time someone will get something right.
Asimov has a giant computer, with just one computer to a country, the size of a small town. Teleprinter like spooling tapes of paper used to communicate between spaceships capable of faster than light travel.
And science fiction is written to entertain. E.g. the storm at the start of the Martian. He says that he knew that it couldn't possibly do any harm at all. The strongest storms on Mars are equivalent to a light breeze on Earth just able to lift an autumn leaf. No way it could blow anything away or threaten the stability of a spaceship launch. He knew that but wrote it in anyway for dramatic effect. And nothing wrong with that, it is fiction after all.
But, seems the idea is to go both ways. To inspire the artists to write more scientifically accurate fiction, and then their imaginations to help the engineers.
I could see that working. Because we are going to get lots more science fiction anyway. So scientifically accurate - so much the better!
I'd like for instance to see some science fiction stories about Mars that really treat planetary protection seriously. E.g. astronauts in orbit exploring Mars via telepresence. Perhaps exploring the moons of Mars first.
Stories where a sample is returned from Mars to above GEO rather than to the Earth surface, to protect Earth from extraterrestrial biology.
And also - that deal properly with the issues of cosmic radiation, and of weightlessness, health problems, and the need to do shorter voyages first before heading off to Mars.
I wish I could write such stories myself.
But they may just be more stories about colonizing Mars, to boost the idea that it is practical to send humans to Mars and to colonize the planet. Since I don't think it is a very habitable planet at all, I see that as potentially reinforcing a perception the general public has about Mars which is incorrect. And inspire engineers towards that goal, which I don't think is a worthwhile goal, not at this stage.
And then distract us from things we can do. E.g. if the sci. fi. is all pro Mars, when the Moon is the best place for humans to explore, where we are most useful, and if it turns out it is best to do shorter missions to the Moon first, as many think - it could actually hinder than help future exploration.
So, depends how it is done.
Well as someone living in the UK, it's nearly all about his foreign policy.
Banning people because they are Muslims isn't going to go down well internationally. Even in the UK, a mainly Christian co...
(more)Well as someone living in the UK, it's nearly all about his foreign policy.
Banning people because they are Muslims isn't going to go down well internationally. Even in the UK, a mainly Christian country, we have 13 Muslim MPs (the US only has two Muslim senators as far as I know). They would all be banned from visiting the US.
And I don't think anyone in our parliament supports him at all. We have already had a debate about whether to ban him from the UK in parliament, with the debate about equally split between those who think we should ban him for reasons of hate speech (the UK has strong laws on hate speech and about half of those there argued that the things he said about Muslims go over the boundary from free speech to hate speech - we have banned other speakers from the US for not much less).
It's not too likely Theresa May will actually ban him (the debate was informational and there was no vote, and MPs don't make decisions directly) and of course if he was banned as a candidate he would surely have to be accepted as a visiting president.
But more importantly - not a single speaker in that debate supported his views that the way to stop radical extremists who claim to be Muslims is to ban all Muslims from entering the US (or any other country).
Those opposed to the ban did so on grounds of the political effects, and one speaker spoke about the financial effect on her particular constituency in Scotland where he had invested some money, though not a lot. The debate also touched on whether what he said was extreme enough to count as hate speech according to our country's legislation, with some saying it was, and others saying it wasn't. This was an ideal opportunity for anyone here who supported him to make their views clear - and nobody spoke up saying so.
Withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement would also be a big setback for our work to do something about global warming. Again the US is rather unusual there having an entire party of climate skeptics. Here in the UK there is cross party support for the need to do something about climate change. I don't think there is a single elected MP that had climate skepticism as a platform for election.
Perhaps he wouldn't be able to do either of those things though, some have suggested.
If so then he would be a president who is ineffective, trying to put through policies and being prevented from doing so by international treaties and domestic legislation.
So, that's how I see him, as a president with a foreign policy that may have support in the US but would alienate him from other countries.
Also as others have said, he doesn't seem to have a big picture, or a clear idea of foreign policy. So he'd depend on his advisers a lot. So would depend on who he has as advisers also.
Hopefully he would be a one term president. So at least we'd only have four years of it which is something. Surely the US wouldn't elect him again after they see how he messes things up? Then maybe a reaction back to someone more reasonable. But it might be a long four years.
And I hope that he wouldn't get into a major war as president. Can you imagine him being the commander in chief of the US for the Vietnam war or the Iraq war? He doesn't seem like the sort of person who would have a cool head in such a situation and do his best to find a diplomatic solution where possible.
I'm very surprised we have got to this point where he is a serious contender.
Just to add to the other answers - that it has actually happened - this is a light plane with one pilot and one passenger, a Cessna, happened in 2013 Humberside airport.Pilot slumped shortly after ...
(more)Just to add to the other answers - that it has actually happened - this is a light plane with one pilot and one passenger, a Cessna, happened in 2013 Humberside airport.Pilot slumped shortly after take off. The passenger, who had been around airfields and been passenger before but never flown, was able to land successfully. The pilot died.
You can hear the passenger John Wildey talk about the experience here:
Humberside Airport emergency landing pilot dies - BBC News
Also: Hero passenger lands light aircraft at Humberside airport after pilot
There is nothing to prevent anyone who wants to from colonizing the Moon or making habitats from asteroids.
It already says in the Outer Space Treaty that you own your habitat, so long as you occup...
(more)There is nothing to prevent anyone who wants to from colonizing the Moon or making habitats from asteroids.
It already says in the Outer Space Treaty that you own your habitat, so long as you occupy it. We need some kind of clarification of what happens with unoccupied habitats - at present it would seem that anyone can return an unoccupied habitat back to Earth and give it back to the nation that launched it. But so long as it remains occupied then it's yours, that much seems clear.
You can't own the Moon or any part of it or any celestial body - but then - there is nothing there worth owning for the most part. A vacuum covered landscape of rock. Your habitat would be the most valued asset of any settlement. And if you did any farming you'd do it in habitats also - no way you'd try to farm the unprotected lunar surface.
Also - I think most would say it's good that nobody can claim the Moon because otherwise you could get military bases on the Moon and who wants that? That's the main reason why territorial claims are ruled out. The US had ideas for a base on the Moon before the OST.
It's the same for many asteroids so far nothing to stop you from mining them and using them to make habitats to live in in space.
In the case of Mars then it gets much more complicated. The problem with colonizing Mars is that it may have habitats suitable for Earth life. Nobody knows for sure, but it's looking a bit more likely than it did say 10 years ago.
So that means that there is a chance that microbes you bring with you could irreversibly change the planet - bring life to it which was never there before.
It's kind of asymmetrical. Scientists want to study Mars without this nuisance of introduced Earth life. After all it would be the biggest anticlimax you can imagine in exobiology to go there and find only life you brought yourself - or to try to disentangle Earth from Mars life - bearing in mind that we have instruments that are so sensitive they can detect even a single amino acid in a sample. And we haven't sequenced more than a tiny fraction of all microbes. And Earth life could also potentially make Mars life extinct- that's easiest to see for the case where Mars life is some early form of life, e.g. maybe RNA only with no DNA yet. Imagine if there was something like that on Mars, but we introduce Earth life to the planet before we get a chance to study it?
Our understanding of evolution is very limited. We know only half of our history basically - in terms of gene complexity. Our understanding of how life got underway on Earth - it's just guesses really. And same for exoplanets, how likely it is, what processes happen early on - we have no idea.
So - to lose all that understanding just so that some colonists can land on Mars to try to colonize it - that's a big conflict between science and humans potentially.
The thing is - that Mars will still be there a million years from now. We don't have to try to colonize it now, if we decide to do it we can do it whenever we want to. But if we introduce Earth life to it, and it is able to flourish - that changes it irrevocably for all future time so for all those millions of years of our future civilization, or any other future civilizations, it is no longer possible for anyone to study Mars as it was before humans introduced Earth life to it.
We've made so many mistakes of that type on Earth, introduced life to places, then said "oops, now things are going extinct because we introduced rabbits to Australia" or whatever.
Many scientists would say we simply must not have a similar "oops" moment for Mars.
Mars and Europa are the two top priorities in our solar system to keep protected from Earth life. Most people are not that bothered about colonizing Europa - though there is a small group who want to do it.
But, for some reason, there are many who are dead keen on colonizing Mars.
If you look closely, it's really not that much of a place to live.
Nor is the Moon either, but on the Moon you are not in too much conflict with most of the science objectives, so long as you take reasonable care.
The main difference is that Mars is a connected system with dust storms that spread throughout the planet. It's atmosphere is a near vacuum, yet there is enough of it to spread fine dust, fine as cigarette smoke. And that dust is still able to carry microbe spores throughout Mars in principle, if there is somewhere they can survive.
Especially when you take account of the possibility of a hard landing, hard to see COSPAR approving a human mission to Mars.
So anyway - of the places close to Earth:
Those all have minimal planetary protection issues.
Though I think myself that before landing human missions on the very tiny Phobos and Deimos we need some experience of humans on the Moon. Because - I envision that a human settlement may well get surrounded by great piles of tons of debris, considering how many tons get discarded from the ISS each year to burn up in the atmosphere. No problem on the Moon, it is so large. But those tiny moons - not so sure.
That's just my personal view. You'd get permission to land on them probably. There are some planetary protection issues returning a sample from Phobos as it gets a lot of material from Mars so question of whether any of it was recent enough to contain viable life. Russia got permission to return a sample to Earth from Phobos but planned to do some planetary protection anyway just in case although not required by COSPAR.
Moon though is the obvious place to go for a first attempt. Even large caves which may give plenty of protection from cosmic radiation. May have large amounts of ice near the poles.
NOTE - I am not a lawyer, just describing the situation as an ordinary lay person who has read a bit around it and listened to a few talks by space lawyers.
I don't know the source of this statement - is this a passage in the sutras? If so where?
(Thanks for adding the links to them in the question)
But I can answer from what I've heard in dharma teachin...
(more)I don't know the source of this statement - is this a passage in the sutras? If so where?
(Thanks for adding the links to them in the question)
But I can answer from what I've heard in dharma teachings. Just in a basic way, some simple stuff.
So the thing is - yes you can end up clinging to rituals, and to practices. You can come to think that the whole point is to do those rituals.
But - it isn't the ritual that's the problem there. It's your attitude to them, and how you do them. There's nothing wrong with rituals, and they can be very good.
As an example, in the Tibeetan tradition, many Buddhists offer seven bowls of water to the Buddha every morning. It's a simple practice.
You put out the bowls of water. And the water symbolizes the traditional offerings made to a guest in India, so the idea is to invite Buddha into your life.
But you use water instead of the offerings of food, water, incense, flowers etc, because that makes it easy to do a simple practice where you don't get hung up on questions such as whether you have put out enough flowers to welcome a Buddha or whatever. Many people will put some flowers as well, and other things. But it's quite good to do the basic simple practice, just water, nothing else. The water symbolizes the offerings.
So then, as you do so you are welcoming Buddha into your life. Like - the compassion, the wisdom of Buddha. The path that he taught. But not as something purely external. As you do this, you recognize this as something you have in yourself. You then prostrate to the Buddha, and as you do so it's the same, prostrating to the awakeneed mind of the Buddha, recognizing it as something you have in yourself.
In this moment, you connect back to the historical Buddha, as if you were one of his disciples listening to him. It's as if, for a moment, there is no time separating you from the historical Buddha. Which relates also to the Mahayana idea that time and space in the strict linear way that we relate to them are also part of the confusion that binds us to Samsara and suffering.
So, that's a ritual. But what matters is not the ritual, but what it symbolizes and what you connect to. If you feel there is some connection with the awakened mind, and that somehow you are linking back to the teachings of the Buddha when you do this, then that's the whole essence of the ritual. The water really doesn't matter. Indeed having done it with water, you can also do it at other times ,just a prostration. No Buddha image, no water, just prostrating to the awakened mind, and making that connection to the path and recognizing it as something in you. You don't need the prostration either. It's something you can just connect to directly at any moment.
While, doing the ritual without that inner part to it, the essence of what it is about - well that does do some good. It's making a connection with the practice, which may later lead to you the inner meaning of it. But it's not what it is about really. If you were to then go over the top in some way and think the ritual is the essence of it - get really caught up in some details of how you do the ritual, get nervous about whether you have placed the bowls right, or filled them to the exact right level with water, or prostrated yourself at the correct distance from them or put them in the right position relative to the Buddha image or whatever - even with such a simple practice, you could make it hugely complicated. And that then would be this thing of getting too caught up in the rituals which this advice is warning you about. That sort of stuff really is of no significance at all. It's missing the point.
If you do the ritual and you get that connection, then you are doing it right. Doesn't matter if someone else comes along and says "you should stand three paces further away " or whatever. Who cares :). Do what they say if it makes them happier, but that's not what it is about.
Does that make sense?
You can also go over the top in any ritual. Or you can use them simply. And our life is full of rituals anyway. Things like shaking hands, nodding your head or whatever. It's using that to help connect to the teachings. The more that they connect to us in many different multidimensional ways the easier it is to fully relate to the Buddha's teachings in your life. And that's really what they are about. Little reminders that connect you to openness and compassion, day after day.
And some may not need them at all or hardly at all. Some might appreciate really elaborate ceremonies, you spend an hour or two hours a day chanting, visualizing things, prostrating or doing lots of other things. Some it's just a simple practice lasts a minute or two each day. A little meditation. Or setting out those seven bowls of water for the Buddha each day. Or whatever, we are all different, and things that work for one person may have little resonance at all with another. And that's just fine :).
With any practice you do the aim is to let go of the practice and connect somehow to the inner meaning, what it is all about. Even those who do long elaborate pujas with big intricate visualizations, hundreds of verses, sequences of mantras, mabye make big intricate mandalas. But the whole thing then is something you let go.
The sand mandalas of Tibetan Buddhism symbolize this way you let go of the rituals. They spend maybe a week building up an intricate sand mandala. Then they just wash it all away. That's the way you should relate to any rituals you do :).
It's true that we couldn't deflect asteroids as large as Texas with only 18 days notice. We don't have any spacecraft ready to fly anyway on a moment's notice like that, and there isn't much they c...
(more)It's true that we couldn't deflect asteroids as large as Texas with only 18 days notice. We don't have any spacecraft ready to fly anyway on a moment's notice like that, and there isn't much they could do if we did. But luckily we don't have to, because that scenario is impossible, totally unrealistic, as so often with movies.
In actuality we have already found all the Near Earth Object (NEO) asteroids larger than 1 km, and Pan-Starrs can see a 300 meter diameter asteroid right out to the outer edge of the asteroid belt.
Even in a worst possible case scenario, a 10 km comet would be spotted at least several years before impact (Siding Spring which is much less than 1 km in diameter was spotted nearly two years in advance).
An asteroid the size of Texas simply can't happen (for all practical purposes) - no asteroid that large has ever hit Earth, Mars, Mercury, moons of Mars, our Moon and what we hae of the history of Venus since its global resurfacing due to volcanism a few hundred million yeas ago - for over three billion years. We can tell this from the cratering records. There are craters from impacts this large, such as the ones on the Moon, but they are all more than three billion years old.
They just don't happen any more. When they run the models to try to figure out how this works, they find that Jupiter is able to protect us from the very largest asteroids - either they hit Jupiter, are ejected, hit the sun or break into many smaller pieces before they get to Earth. The only exceptions are the ones in the asteroid belt, and all the big ones there are in reasonably stable orbits long term also, so are not a concern (any that weren't would most likely have got cleared out billions of years ago).
Which is just as well as there is no way we could deflect an asteroid the size of Texas with only 18 days warning. Well if we had anything that big headed our way, we’d spot it right out to Neptune’s orbit, so at least ten years before flyby. But the chance of it hitting Earth, given that no such object has ever hit any of the surfaces we are able to study from Mars inwards for over three billion years - it’s so low there’s not much point in even thinking about it. Jupiter is so much larger a target.
What happens is that Jupiter deflects and breaks up the larger objects or they hit the Sun or Jupiter and they are unlikely even to be in the same plane as Earth or to cross the plane at Earth’s distance from the Sun. It doesn’t do such a good job of the 10 km and smaller ones as there are so many of them and it also adds to them by breaking up larger comets.
For the ones that can happen, then the sooner you can spot it the better. If an asteroid is due to hit us a decade later, then we need only cms per second of delta v. With even a 10 km asteroid, that's within the range of what we could hope to achieve with the technology we have, through various methods.
If it does a flyby of Earth first before impact, as is usually the case, then we just need it to miss a small keyhole in space, perhaps a few hundred meters in diameter. That makes the required delta v, if we can spot it a decade before the flyby only microns per second. In that case, even just painting it white could so change its trajectory that it misses through changing the amount of the Yarkovsky effect - painting here doesn't mean giving it a good coating of paint, but dusting it with some white or light powder to increase its surface albedo significantly (as most asteroids are pretty dark, so easy to change in this way).
Only 1 in 146 of the asteroid flybys are by long period comets. A ten kilometer comet with several years of warning is a pretty impossible thing to detect. But this is extremely unlikely.
It was already a 1 in a million chance of a 10 km assteroid hitting us this century. Now that we've found all the 10 km NEOs, it's a one in a 146 million chance. But a new comet coming in from the outer solar system would be likely to be perturbed by Jupiter first before it has a chance of hitting Earth, or at least to do a flyby of Earth.
The thing is that we have probably found just about all the Jupiter crossing short period 10 km asteroids also. We can spot 10 km asteroids easily in the population of Jupiter trojans. So you are talking about a long period comet that hasn't yet been perturbed into a short period. It probably does a flyby of Earth, heads off, and doesn't come back again for many decades at least.
Earth is a tiny target. And close flybys by comets are extremely rare. We get a flyby at the end of March by a comet fragment, and that's the closest one recorded in history since 1770. It passes at nine times the distance to the Moon.
We get many flybys of NEOs, and some of them so close they pass between the Earth and the Moon. Sometimes they come within Geostationary orbit, only a tenth of the way to the Moon.
So, you can see how rare large comets are going to be and how unlikely that we would find one headed straight for us with only six months to spare before impact. Far more likely that we have several decades from discovery to impact.
Which then takes us into that scenario where the required delta v is cms / second, or even microns per second if it does a flyby first, as it probably would.
Those are the giant asteroids. As for smaller ones, 1 km in diameter, well we have found 90% of those. We will find 90% of those left by the 2020s. By which time either we find one headed our way - or much more likely find that none are headed our way. At which point then the risk from those would be negligible also, and again same thing, if one is headed our way likely to have lots of warning.
With even smaller ones, 100 meters in diameter or so, then the objective is to find 90% of those as well by the 2020s but it's not yet clear how we will do it. Because they re so numerous and many still to find, and quite hard to spot when far from Earth, especially smaller ones down to 20 meters
There is a solution though, if someone can find a way to fund the $450 million B612 telescope. That could achieve the goal in 6.5 years and extend the mapping down even to 20 meters diameter asteroids.
Meanwhile, we can still miss small asteroids, and if small enough we can even miss them on the day of impact as the Chelyabinsk meteorite showed. As a result of the Pan Starrs and Linear searches, we simply can't miss big asteroids as large as 10 km in diameter on such a short timescale.
And as a result of Pan-STARRS the impact threat is now equally divided between the large ones and small ones in terms of expected numbers of casualties averaged out per year.
With a bit more of a search we can almost eliminate the large asteroid threat, and should get there by the late 2020s.
And - no way that any of these asteroids could make humans extinct. Many creatures survived the CP boundary dinosaur asteroid including turtles, aligators and crocodiles, flying dinosaurs (which became birds), dawn redwood, small mammals. Humans are great generalists and particularly now that we have technology, I don't think asteroid impacts are an existential risk for us. Though they could be devastating for us. They also aren't the most likely of hazards at all. We don't have the equivalent of a Pompei destroyed by asteroids anywhere in our history. There are a few accounts of people being killed by asteroids. But only individuals not hamlets or cities.
But asteroids can be deflected, so it's a unique natural risk there, can be predicted to the minute, and then can also be prevented.
See also my: Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
available online for free, also from Amazon kindle as:
Giant Asteroid Is Headed Your Way? : How We Can Detect and Deflect Them (Amazon)
Life expectancy doesn't work like that. If we had fixed life-spans that would be a reasonable deduction. But instead it's a percentage thing. The longer you live, the greater your total life expec...
(more)Life expectancy doesn't work like that. If we had fixed life-spans that would be a reasonable deduction. But instead it's a percentage thing. The longer you live, the greater your total life expectancy. Both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump have similar life expectancies, well over a decade of life expectancy remaining. Indeed it's almost too close to call.
It's natural to look at the life expectancy for men in the US of 76.4 years and conclude he has only two years left, expected Life expectancy in the USA hits a record high
But that's the life expectancy of a US man at birth, not the life expectancy of a 74 year old.
Because he has already survived to 74, with no terminal disease or anything like that, in good health, you now expect him to live to his late eighties. So he has well over a decade of life expectancy.
Putting in his birthday here as september 8, 1941,
it makes his life expectancy 12.3, so likely to live to 86.8, Plenty of time for two terms as president, if he so wished, and then to retire for another four years.
Note, this is for illustrative purposes only. That's one of the simplest calculators I could find, only requests birthday and sex.
A more accurate calculator would ask questions about his habits - is he active, healthy lifestyle, does he smoke, or drink to excess, his country and zip code, his profession, there are lots of things they can take account of to get a more accurate estimate.
Both men I think are likely to be healthier, be more active, and take more care of themselves, than your average citizen so can probably be expected to live longer than these figures suggest.
But the principle is the same, though the actual figures are likely to be different.
Now if you put his birthday 13 years earlier, so that he was 87 already - you might expect to get a life expectancy of zero. But no,you don't.
Putting in his birthday as september 8 1928, you get a life expectancy of 5.2 and find he will now live to 92.7 on average.
Now put in a birthday of september 8 1922, making him 93 already, and now you get a life expectancy of 3.3, and find he will live to 96.8 on average.
Even if you make him a 101 today, you get a life expectancy of 2.1 years and find that he will live to 103.1 on average.
So, no matter how old you get, even into your nineties, even in your 100s, your remaining life expectancy is still a number of years.
Of course, that doesn't mean you live for ever. Any of us could die today. But what it means is that if you do live to a particular age - then the chances that led you to reaching that age successfully mean you now start with a fresh slate, as it were, in life expectancy statistics, unless of course you have a terminal illness or are in very poor health. And your life expectancy is reduced if you are older, but not by as much as you'd exect.
If we put in Donald Trump's birthday June 14, 1946
then we get a life expectancy of 15.7 years and a prediction that on average he can expect to live to 85.4
So, although Bernie Sanders is five years older than Donald Trump, his life expectancy is only three years less than Donald Trump's. 12.3 instead of 15.7. Domald Trump's life expectancy, in this very approximate calculation, is about 128% more than Bernie Sanders' life expectancy.
This difference is so small, that it could easily turn out that the figures go the other way around, once you feed in detailed figures to find out which of the two has the healthiest lifestyle.
It may seem a bit unintuitive but that's how the maths works.
As for going bald with a white hair and a lined face - that doesn't mean you are about to die :). Some people go grey early on. Some people go bald even in their thirties. It says nothing about your health and life expectancy. He could go on to live to be over 100, like anyone else could do.
I'm a programmer and mathematician, and not an AI researcher. But I have been following this field somewhat since the 1980s when I went to some of Roger Penrose's talks in Oxford when I was studyin...
(more)I'm a programmer and mathematician, and not an AI researcher. But I have been following this field somewhat since the 1980s when I went to some of Roger Penrose's talks in Oxford when I was studying post graduate logic there under Robin Gandy.
At the time Roger Penrose was writing his books such as "The Emperor's New Mind" and lecturing about them to the logicians, philosophers and physicists at Oxford University. I know he has had a lot of opposition, but to me much of it seems to miss the point. He gave a decent logical argument to suggest that a programmable computer can never understand truth, and suggestions for one way that non computable physics can arise in the brain. At the time he was almost laughed at by many because he suggested that quantum processes such as superposition can happen in a human brain at the temperature of the human body. But since 2007, this is now confirmed in many different areas of biology, that you actually do get quantum superpositions of states.
According to his views, then the brain is hugely more complex than AI researchers suggest. He thinks that very single neuron uses vast amounts of computational power within it. Again he was already saying this back in the 1980s, and he identified structures that could do this - the microtubules. These are structures that are usually thought of as a kind of scaffolding a bit like our skeleton. But they are much more dynamic than skeletons as they get rebuilt continually. When moving an ameoba constantly dissolves and rebuilds microtubules along its leading edge. And it turns out - that the microtubules have surfaces that have the potential to behave like cellular automata. Perhaps these are not just the skeletons but also the brains of ameobas?
It makes sense to me that this should be the case, as after all amoebas don't have any neurons, yet would easily out think a computer neural net of thousands, maybe millions of neurons. They actually have rather complex behaviour. So how could the first primitive brains with thousands of neurons evolve if a single cell could out think it? It must make more use of the interior of the cells. How could it not? How could all that potential of the interior of a neuron be used only as a simple node in a neural net? How could our brains not use this complexity of the interior of each cell?
But he takes it one further, he says that no program can ever understand truth. It will always have truth glitches, kind of logic bombs in it that prevent it understanding certain points. It's an intricate argument.
As a result of this he thinks that something non computable is going on. I.e. that strong AI can't be simulated with a computer program.
That then leads in to his idea of how we might be doing it - using quantum coherence - but not just over one cell, but many, until it builds up to a Plank's mass of matter - about the mass of an eyelash hair. At which point the state collapses, and this is where he thinks the non computable behaviour comes in.
What his opponents miss, it seems to me - is that he has an argument to show that strong AI is a program in non computable physics. They try to find problems with his argument, and also say they don't think the particular physics he outlines is possible.
But - that's somewhat missing the point. More to the point - can they prove that strong AI is computable? It's not enough to just find flaws in one particular argument that shows that it is non computable. That doesn't establish computability- it just shows that there are flaws in that particular argument (if they are right). Can they establish computability - that strong AI is a problem in computable physics? I don't think anyone is close to doing that. And convinced by Roger Penrose's arguments, I don't think they ever will do.
For more on this, see: Robert Walker's answer to What constraints to AI and machine learning algorithms are needed to prevent AI from becoming a dystopian threat to humanity? That's a $500 knowledge prize which expires today.
And for many other answers, most of which currently support The Artificial Intelligence Revolution: Part 1 - Wait But Why idea see the other answers to it.
That article itself, I know it's a lot of Woohoo! seems on first reading if you haven't followed th subject much. But - Elon Musk is not hte only one. Many people take this really seriously. They think that we will have a singularity, perhaps as soon as 2045 is one projection, where suddenly some computer will become intelligent as described in that article, then find ad way to create more and more intelligent computers and that everything will be changed. Kind of a before and after, nothing can be the same again after that.
I think that's just sci fi myself - as likely as us suddenly discovering warp drive or how to teleport people in 2045. Indeed since I htink it's based on a false premiss, convinced by Roger Penrose's argument- I'd rate warp drive as more likely and even matter transmission as slightly more likely (though almost pure fantasy) than this idea.
We don't see what it is capable of in the book. Because the bearers either were unaware of what it could do (Gollum and Bilbo) or had been warned not to use it (Frodo - though he did use it a bit, ...
(more)We don't see what it is capable of in the book. Because the bearers either were unaware of what it could do (Gollum and Bilbo) or had been warned not to use it (Frodo - though he did use it a bit, and Sam, resists its suggestions), or knew better (Faramir, Galadriel, Gandalf - in the book Faramir is not tempted to take it). The only one who really desired it in the book is Boromir. As a warrior, he saw it as a tool he could use to augment his own warrior capabilities which presumably it would have done. So that's the nearest to your question. We are told that it would have been of great value in the fight against Sauron - but how exactly it would have done this is not explained. Because of course Boromir did not succeed in getting hold of it.
It's main powers were that it could control the other rings, except the rings the elves had - and that it could augment the powers of its wearer. So for instance Gandalf bearing it would have been a much more powerful wizard, able to achieve almost anything. But his wizardry would have turned to evil.
It makes them invisible because it moves them into "another world" they are not invisible to themselves, and to those who can see such as Tom Bombadil, they are just as visible when they wear the ring. Or even more visible when wearing it for the black riders.
It seems to have various other powers shown in action rather than described. For more on this, see One Ring
So - I think pretty powerful really! But the story is about finding a way to get rid of something powerful so nobody can use it, rather than about mastering its power, which he says is impossible. And that it would eventually master anyone who used it, and also, eventually turn them into a wraith, an invisible creature, a tenth black rider under the control of Sauron - unless they were extremely powerful originally such as Galadriel or Gandalf in which case the risk is that they win and becomem a second Sauron themselves.
That is, except for Tom Bombadil, for whom its just a bauble so he had no interest in it, could easily have lost it if left with him. It had no power over him, and he had no power over it or interest in it except as a bauble.
Though when Tolkien wrote the Hobbit, he didn't have all this back history and background of the ring . Even when he started on the first few chapters of the LOR, it was still just a simple invisibility ring with not much else to it. The rest of this was developed later. He then went back to the Hobbit, and rewrote the riddle scene with Gollum and his escape from the caves to make it consistent with the later story.
It doesn't sound genuine to me as a Buddhist myself following one of the Tibetan traditions. There are many quotes that are falsely attributed to the Dalai Lama, just as for most famous public figures.
...
(more)It doesn't sound genuine to me as a Buddhist myself following one of the Tibetan traditions. There are many quotes that are falsely attributed to the Dalai Lama, just as for most famous public figures.
The only Buddhists who are not supposed to handle money are the Buddhist monks and nuns, and only if they have taken full ordination, not the novice vows - and that's regarded by Tibetans as a minor rule, not one of the essential core rules. So monks will often buy things in practice in our society because to not do so would inconvenience others, mean they have to have someone to do all their purchases for them. It made sense at the time of the Buddha with a tradition of homeless spiritual seekers supported by donations of food etc and begging, and highly regarded for their spiritual path they have chosen.
Therevadhan monks are stricter, but Tibetan monks and nuns have this approach where they consider that compassion overrules all the minor rules of conduct. The reason for this difference of interpretation is that Buddha said that some of the rules were minor ones that could be ignored, but he never clarified which were the major and which the minor ones - according to the sutras he was never asked, his disciple who was responsible for remembering the rules of conduct never thought to ask him. So it is open to different traditions to have different intepretations here, and they do.
There is nothing at all in Buddhism about lay people not handling money, at all. It's normal for lay Buddhists to work, earn money, pay for things, save up, etc etc. Buddhist teachings do encourage generosity. But not giving away all your possessions - that's a Westerners misconception of what it is about that some have.
So, I don't see how a Tibetan monk could ever say this.
So, reads to me like something composed by a Westerner who has this misconception about Buddhism - or else, as is very common, just a quote from someone else, which has been misattributed to the Dalai Lama.
Yes, I know nothing much about US politics - but the democrats seemingly are aiming for things that we have already here in the UK and know that they work well for us. He's not radical or left wing...
(more)Yes, I know nothing much about US politics - but the democrats seemingly are aiming for things that we have already here in the UK and know that they work well for us. He's not radical or left wing at all for us, center perhaps.
Top 10 Reasons Why Bernie Sanders May Actually Become President
I mean it's not really possible to compare, situation is so different. For instance here in the UK religion plays absolutely zero role in elections. No politician will even mention it in a typical election. And nobody would think of saying something like "God save the UK" or whatever it is US presidents say. It's not that there are no Christians here - there are many Christians but are much more kind of relaxed about their faith, and there aren't that many Christian fundamentalists - nobody would think of suggesting that schools should not teach evolution or teach it on equal terms with creationism.
The gun issue is also a non issue here, we already have strong gun control and it makes sense to us. We don't have the idea at all that possessing a gun makes you safer. And the idea that citizens need guns so that they can overthrow the government if necessary, again doesn't have any resonances for us, and we just don't "get it" why you'd want that.
But then Bernie Sanders comes from a rural area where guns are a natural part of life and not much gun crime, I gather, and is neither pro nor against guns - so that's not a big deal for him in this elecction. Mention that just to give an idea of how different the situation is here.
But ideas of universal health care - that makes a lot of sense here. We just have it and it works.
We have issues here also of the Conservatives "running down the National Health Service" but compared to the issues in the US that's just about details of how it works, nobody is suggesting we scrap it, or hardly anyone. For us it is significant, junior doctors on strike because they think their proposed new working conditions long hours without overtime pay on Saturdays I think is part of it - will have an adverse affect on patient care. But the hospitals are good. Doctors are good. If you have non urgent operations or procedures you may have a long waiting list in some districts. But that's about it for most people.
Here where I live - it's especially good as I live in a rural area. I can just go in any day to see my doctor, who we know by his first name, as "Doctor Frank", don't have to show anything, just wait until it's my turn, talk to him, not a fixed time appointment - as long as necessary. Some patients may be in there for half an hour, or longer, when you are waiting for your turn. Then he may give blood tests, or some such - all that is completely free - nothing changes hands, no forms to sign or anything. If I need medicine, well here because it is a rural area and not easy to get to shops, then the receptionist gets the medicine together too and hands it over in a bag to me as I leave.
It's a little different in cities, where you have to make an appointment in advance to see a doctor unless it is urgent, and instead of being given your medicine in a bag by the receptionist, the doctor gives you a note instead which you have to take to a chemist in town, still free. But apart from that it is the same thing.
Anything urgent then you get taken to hospital anywhere. And everything that's needed is covered, with no need for insurance.
For us all this seems normal. It seems even rather uncivilized to have a culture where poor people are sometimes refused treatment that they need because they are poor and their health insurance doesn't cover it, especially when you hear of people that run up huge bills they can't afford just to cover health bills for a child or some such. Can't understand why a civilized great nation can have such a system.
Then - we simply don't have any politicians at all saying the things Donald Trump says, especially about Muslims. In the discussion of whether to ban him from the UK not one person in the debate spoke up in support of his views.
We have thirteen Muslim MPs, 8 of them women, who would be banned from the US under his proposals. So in the debate they made quite a bit of political hay about that.
They also talked about other things, one of them mentioned that his financial support of certain projects in Scotland would be dropped, others talked about how his investments are much less than he makes them out to be.
This is mainly back benchers in that debate - but if there was anyone who supported his views here, surely they'd have had an ideal platform for it there. Not one person supported him. They all said in various ways that his views were unacceptable, and the debate was about whether they had gone so far as to count as hate speech in the sense that is used when people are banned from the UK for hate speech.
I don't think anyone here hardly would vote for him. Is just nowhere in our political spectrum. Boris Johnson is quite right wing, may become the next conservative party leader - he also totally repudiates everything Donald Trump says - we have total cross party full spectrum everyone saying that what he says is nonsense and also to us seems like verging on hate speech if not already hate speech.
Then in addition to that, we don't really have climate sceptics here - not running for political positions. You meet people who are sometimes, rarely. But nobody has that as a platform. All the parties are agreed on the importance of doing something about climate change. The conservative party is criticized because their actions don't seem to match their aspirations, e.g. canceling a carbon capture storage research scheme, and reducing subsidies for solar power, etc etc. They have cut back on many initiatives that the more left wing Labour party put in place. But still they "talk the talk" and say they are doing what they can to stop climate change, and that this is what they see as the best way to do it in their vision.
So - of all the US candidates, Bernie Sanders is the one who is most vocal about climate change. And the Republicans, nearly all, are climate skeptics. Here I'm pretty sure an avowed climate skeptic would find it hard to get votes at all in the general election. So that's another big difference. Hard to say for sure as I don't think we have anyone who was elected as an MP on a climate skeptic platform (do correct me if I'm wrong here anyone).
For me, as I think climate change is one of the major challenges of our generation - then I'm rooting for Bernie Sanders. While Hilary Clinton - at least she supports it, but not in such a whole hearted way as he does, if I understand right.
But for just about everyone I think his views on climate change also would be seen as fairly middle of the road. As with many of the other things. I really haven't listened to him that much, and most here have probably listened to him even less, I'm kind of interested more than many because I have a fair number of US friends, but I think that's the general perception, without knowing much about the man and his politics, that (amongst those who follow the presidential campaign - of course it isn't nearly so big here as in the US), he is kind of middle of the road suggesting policies that would be totally unremarkable here but for some reason are seen as radical in the US. And I see most of the other answers here are saying the same thing which helps confirm that impression.
Well, mine is not an absolute "shouldn't". But I think we probably won't want to once all the information is in, at least not in the near future. I think settlements as in the Antarctic habitats fo...
(more)Well, mine is not an absolute "shouldn't". But I think we probably won't want to once all the information is in, at least not in the near future. I think settlements as in the Antarctic habitats for sure. But colonies - just don't 'see it.
First, for the same reason we don't colonize Anatarctica, or the sea bed, or build cloud colonies in the upper Earth atmosphere. It's technically possible, but there doesn't seem to be any point. Not for colonization.
WHAT'S IT FOR?
Buckminster cloud colonies
These are surely easier to build than the Venus cloud colonies
Will We Build Colonies That Float Over Venus Like Buckminster Fuller's "Cloud Nine"?
At cloud levels you can see the sun, air pressure is normal, temperature is fine, you can build lightweight low tech constructions with pressure equalized inside and out. You need to protect from sulfuric acid but that is something we can do. You don't have to protect from the vacuum of space.
And those are easier to build than lunar colonies, and Mars is harder than any of those, I believe. The Venus upper atmosphere is surprisingly habitable - click through to that article to find out why.
So we need a reason to be there.
But it's hard to think of any reason to live on Mars or in the Venus atmosphere, not one that could make it worthwhile as a place to build a place to live, given how hugely more expensive it will be to live there.
NOT A BACKUP
I don't buy the "backup" argument. First, you can't sustain a hundreds of billions of dollars program for a thousand years or more on the basis that some day humans will need it as a backup. It would take thousands of years to make Mars sufficiently habitable to be worth even considering as a backup to Earth. Who is going to pay? All the solutions to make it more habitable involve massive mega-engineering - planet sized thin film mirrors, or 200 nuclear power stations operating full time 24/7. Surely Earth would be the priority, not Mars?
I can see this only working for very wealthy people, who buy a house in space much as they might by a luxury yacht or a private jet. And then want to be funded by everyone else to support their expensive lifestyle. I'm not saying they would see it that way themselves. They probably genuinely think they are the forefront of a movement that will save the Earth. But in effect they would be asking us all to fund this dream they have, and to buy into it and believe in it along with them - because there is no way it could pay for itself. Just getting there is only a tiny part of the story.
And -it's no good as a backup anyway. Even if something happened to Earth - and disasters causing extinctions are not common, despite the movie genre - about once every hundred million years for asteroid caused ones - they would never make Earth even remotely as uninhabitable even as a terraformed Mars. And would not make humans extinct on Earth. I haven't heard of any natural disaster that would do that likely to happen on a planet like ours circling a quiet sun, far from the galactic core, and with a modest level of meteorite impacts -with no really big impacts for over three billion years.
Yes, half a billion years from now Earth will become uninhabitable. But that is long enough for humans to evolve a second time from the simplest of multicellular creatures.
Why We Can't "Backup Earth" On Mars, The Moon, Or Anywhere Else In Our Solar System also End Of All Life On Earth - A Billion Years From Now - Can It Be Avoided - And Who Will Be Here Then?
Then there are more reasons than that.
PLANETARY PROTECTION
A planet that is viable as a place for humans to live is likely to have habitats where life can exist already. There's only one candidate indeed, Mars. Not very habitable but it may have present day life. Some suggest Europa's ocean, living some hundred kilometers below the surface. Doesn't seem viable to me, but in any case same problem, it may have its own indigenous life.
So that's a reason, to protect those creatures, those lifeforms, so we can learn from them. Will We Meet ET Microbes On Mars? Why We Should Care Deeply About Them - Like Tigers
RESPONSIBILITIES.
If you start off introducing life to a planet you start a process that irreversibly changes that planet. How can we possibly know enough to do this? There are many things to go wrong, see my
Imagined Colours Of Future Mars - What Happens If We Treat A Planet As A Giant Petri Dish?
How do we direct it into the right scenario, the nice green one third from right? How do we know that that is even possible, given no previous experience of terraforming?
See also my Our Ethical Responsibilities To Baby Terraformed Worlds - Like Parents and Trouble With Terraforming Mars
Not that we never should do this. But surely this is something that ETs do at a later stage, in a millions of years old civilization, when they can take on projects that last for millions of years, can pay for vastly expensive projects like this, and know they will be able to see them out? It's not that I think we should never do it, but that we are too young to do it. A bit like a young girl of seven playing with her dolls and saying she wants to be a mummy. She has no idea what the responsibilities are involved, and nor do we, yet. When she grows up, maybe she will be a mother. But it isn't yet the right time for her to make that decision. In th e same way it isnot yet the righth time for us to decide to have a baby terraformed planet, seems to me.
And - if we are going to be a responsible parent for a terraformed planet - well we have to have a stable civilization. Terraforming won't make your civilization stable. Indeed could easily go the other way, especially if you neglect your home planet and spend hundreds of billions a year on trying to make a dead place like Mars into a new world with hundreds of nuclear power plants or giant mirrors.
I think we need to go step by step and at each stage start with Earth as a focus.
Indeed I think it is far better to go into space to explore - of course - but also to protect Earth. We could start by mapping out all the asteroids that are on a possible collision course with Earth, however small. That's a space project well within our capabilities.And to search for life around other planets- which involves keeping humans well away from any possible habitats.
That's where I think we should start.
Finally I'm not sure that colonizing our galaxy is a desirable end goal. If you look at it the other way, suppose there was an ET say a billion years ago - that looked at our galaxy and asked "I wonder if I should colonize it?" Do you think they should have said Yes? We wouldn't be here if they did, as it would take only a few million years to totally fill a galaxy with your kind. They'd have mined the planets, settled on Earth, introduced their lifeforms and made ours extinct if incompatible (as they probably would be) and we wouldn't 'be here.
But what's more it would be potentially disastrous for themselves. Because, worse than self replicating robots - their kind would fill the galaxy - but out of reach from their home planet, they would diversify and take all sorts of different forms. Even evolve into different creatures. Develop technologies that none of their distant siblings have. Invade worlds, engage in wars. And the ones that spread the most rapidly and are most aggressive would fill the galaxy. Hard to see that ending anywhere except endless suffering.
You can do a calculation involving exponentially growing populations to find how soon an expanding population can continue to grow exponentially without crashing. It's only a few thousand years, even with an entire galaxy to expand into - you can't expand fast enough to keep up with the population growth, even of a very slow exponential.
And siince the most rapidly expanding would be favoured, this is a scenario I think any ET would view with trepidation.
Luckily, or perhaps I think, maybe even inevitably - if there were any ETs in our galaxy before us, they decided not to do this. I think we will too when the time comes that it is possible. Because I think we are reasonably far seeing, and can understand things like this.
If so, I think that we may well have settlements, even fill the hsolar system. Even perhaps explorers on longer distance voyages. Perhaps robots around every star - no problem with self replicating robot explorers if carefully designed and programmed. And I think we will learn to be content with that. Until our sun gets too hot for Earth to be habitable, then we can move elsewhere or rather whatever we have evolved into or been replaced by by then.
So, anyway I think there is no hurry at all to colonize. But we do need to look after our Earth. And there are many exciting and valuable things we can do in space. Which may include large settlements, even thousands of people.
And - if we did want to colonize in a big way for its own sake - well planets are not the best place to go. We could have trillions of people living in habitats made from materials in the asteroid belt. We could only have billions if we stay on planetary surfaces.
Asteroid Resources Could Create Space Habs For Trillions; Land Area Of A Thousand Earths
Yes for sure, monks also. They often joke in dharma talks.
The guideline on speech even for monks is to avoid harmful lies. Not to avoid humour and jokes :)..
And the basic guideline is to help other...
(more)Yes for sure, monks also. They often joke in dharma talks.
The guideline on speech even for monks is to avoid harmful lies. Not to avoid humour and jokes :)..
And the basic guideline is to help others. If what you are doing is benefiting others then you are on the right lines. If you become grim and introverted and trying to control every aspect of your life to become a perfectly controlled person - you aren't helping anyone, just making yourself depressed.
There is a place for discipline. But for the most part it's to do with obvious things such as not stealing, lying etc. And then meditation to do with opening out to others and your surroundings.
And there may be a place for more discipline including mindfulness, for instance to meditate is a discipline, you decide to set aside a certain amount of time to meditate - but that will depend on the teacher, how they teach that in your tradition. And Buddhists don't have to meditate. Many lay Buddhists never meditate (except in the West where of course they all do). It doesn't have to be central to your life as a Buddhist.
In some ways of meditating and following the path, then there is a lot of discipline, e..g the zen monasteries, some Therevadhan monks. Or you may even go and meditate in a cave for years, but you'll have guidance in that case on how to do it, which helps keep it balanced. It's never discipline as an end in itself. But part of a larger picture.
If you are not following a particular tradition or path, the main things to aspire towards are the five precepts, to avoid killing, especially murder (for most of us not a hard precept to keep), to avoid harmful lies, to avoid stealing that which belongs to others, to avoid sexual misconduct (depends on your culture - if it hurts others) - and intoxicants at such levels that they could make you do any of the other things in a debauched drunken state.
Beyond that, well the discipline may come naturally as you follow the path. It can just arise out of the other practices you are doing.If you are acting with compassion, wisdom, wish to help others - loving kindness, then that by itself leads to the discipline that you need,. you naturally behave in a way appropriately to others. Which of course can include joking and fooling around, going to cinemas or whatever :).
And mindfulness in Buddhism doesn't at all mean tightly controlling every aspect of your life. Indeed the tendency to do that is in some ways our main problem. Its got a more subtle meaning which you gradually appreciate as you practice following the path.
Because there are others that want to study the life on those planets. According to the Outer Space Treaty we have to act to prevent harmful contamination of another planet. "Harmful contamination"...
(more)Because there are others that want to study the life on those planets. According to the Outer Space Treaty we have to act to prevent harmful contamination of another planet. "Harmful contamination" here has taken to include harm to the scientific experiments of other parties to the treaty.
To take an example, if you introduced Earth microbes to Mars and they flourished there, then from then on we'd never know if the life we found was from Mars. And no, there is no genetic test that can tell if life is Earth based or not. Not if it has a common origin. The Mars life could also be vulnerable to Earth life, simple example, if it is an earlier form of life, e.g. RNA only life - it would probably have no defences against the more modern advanced DNA based life. You can think up many similar scenarios.
So - it's unethical in the same way that introducing rabbits and rats and cane toads to an isolated island with unique indigenous species is unethical.
You might think it is different if there is no life there yet. But even then it is also an ethical quandry. First, scientists are also very interested in how a planet like Earth behaves if it doesn't have life on it. We could learn a lot about exoplanets for instance. And may find out a lot about how easy it is for life to evolve and about early pre-life precursors.
Also, even if somehow there is no present scientific interest at all (unlikely) - well you are taking responsibility on yourself to transform an entire planet in an irreversible way. Perhaps this is something that advanced civilizations can do knowing the consequences. And then maybe they can nurture that world for millions of years into a desired final state, or to help it through its early stages of life.
But we have no experience of terraforming worlds. We don't even know what is likely to go wrong, never mind how to fix it. And we have less than 100 yeas of spaceflight. How can we think we are ready to take on the multi-million year responsibility of introducing life to a new planet?
See also
Our Ethical Responsibilities To Baby Terraformed Worlds - Like Parents
Actually though it is a priority for NASA as it was recommended to them for the 2012 decadal review - many exobiologists would say that this is a mistake. It is good for geology - but it is being s...
(more)Actually though it is a priority for NASA as it was recommended to them for the 2012 decadal review - many exobiologists would say that this is a mistake. It is good for geology - but it is being slated as part of the seaerch for life - and in this context it may be next to useless. The exobiologists see it as little more than a technology demo, which is likely to be no more conclusive for the search for life than the Mars meteorites we already have.
ALH84001 perhaps the oldest Mars meteorite we have, formed on Mars about 4 billion years ago, sent into space by an impact on Mars, and after millions of years in transit in space landed on Earth about 13,000 years ago.
Some still think that it preserves traces of ancient life, an early form of life smaller than any modern Earth cells. The study is very controversial. The exobiologists who are authors of the white paper submitted to the decadal review say that samples returned from Mars are likely to be as inconclusive for the search for life as this meteorite.
This study is in a white paper submitted to the decadal survey by eight exobiologists(from Scripps Institution of Oceanography, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, SETI Institute, University of California Berkeley and NASA Ames Research Center). The decadal review ignored it. Though the paper is listed in the citations for the review it is never mentioned anywhere in the text, nor was it mentioned in any of the summing up speeches.
Given that the idea of the sample return is to search for life, surely the report of exobiologists, experts in the field, should have been given top priority and at the least, triggered a detailed investigation of whether the sample return would indeed achieve the stated objectives. But it was not, it was just ignored.
RAIN OF ORGANICS FROM METEORITES
The thing is, as they point out, that Mars gets a constant rain of organics from meteorites. So discovery of organics on Mars does not mean life. Indeed the organics Curiosity has found already are thought to be from meteorites, and the big surprise was that it didn't find them sooner.
Fragment of the Murchison meteorite, and particles extracted from it in the test tube. The meteorite was a witnessed fall, collected soon after it landed, and has many organics in it. It includes rare amino acids such as Isovaline:
Isovaline, a rare amino acid found in the Murchison meteorite. This helps confirm that the organics in it are of extraterrestrial origin as this amino acid is not involved in Earth life.
The organics from meteorites may even have a chiral excess also. In this 2006 analysis the EET92042 and GRA95229 meteorites had chiral excesses ranging from 31.6 to 50.5%.
GRA95229 - another chrondite, collected in Antarctica, had chiral excesses of +31.6‰ for a-AIB to +50.5‰ for the (non terrestrial) amino acid isovaline, while the EET92042 meteorite ranged from +31.8‰ for glycine to +49.9‰ for L-alanine.It's thought that these excesses are extraterrestrial and not due to contamination by Earth life.
So, if you send a robot to Mars to pick up samples based only on the geology and on detection of organics - then it is likely to return samples of meteorite organics like the organics already found by Curiosity. The rover they plan to send will not be able to distinguish meteorite organics from organics formed by life processes.
The sample return is intended as part of the search for ancient life. But the thing is, that this rain of organics from meteorites has continued throughout the past history of Mars. There must be lots of ancient meteorite organics on Mars. And ancient life will deteriorate easily unless it is preserved in ideal conditions. As on Earth, but for different reasons,the ideal conditions will be rare and hard to predict.
You don't find fossils easily in an Earth desert. And fossils with organic remains in them are even rarer. There are ancient organics for instance in stromatolite fossils, but they are both extremely rare, and also, it took much research before they were accepted as genuine.
These are now known to be early stromatolites. But it took a lot of work and evidence before they were accepted as such. The proof involved discovery of minute traces of organics inside the fossils. Fossils with preserved organics from ancient Earth are exceedingly rare.
Organic fossils on Mars are likely to be just as rare and hard to find. For some of the same reasons and for some different reasons. The ground is far colder which prevents deracemization. That's the main reason we think there is a chance we can find ancient organics on Mars. There's a lot of potential there.
But though possible they are still likely to be rare and hard to find. First, the life has to be preserved in the first place, which requires conditions in which organics accumulate - and don't just get eaten by other lifeforms. For instance, perhaps in a lake bed or a salt bed. Most likely clays or salt deposits. Both quite fragile and vulnerable to later disturbance.
There might not have been much life in the first place. Often in places of Earth with little by way of life, places with similar geology in some cases have life and in others not, perhaps due to tiny changes in the microclimate.
We also don't know the capabilities of the life. We don't even know if we are searching for photosynthetic life or life that exists only around hydrothermal vents or geothermal hot spots. We don't know if the salt deposits are the place to look, or clay deposits, or both, or some geological formation that we haven't thought of yet.
On Earth one key to discoveries of early life was the realization that gunflint chert is a "magic mineral" that preserves traces of early life.
Galaxiopsis, one of the fossil microbes found in gunflint chert, which has turned out to be a "magic mineral" for search for evidence of early biology on Earth. What is the "magic mineral" for Mars? We've no idea and may need to return many tons of material back to Earth before we discover it if we rely on sample return.
Then once accumulated, the organics are easily washed out by later floods. Mars has had many flash floods. They can be decomposed by other lifeforms. They can deteriorate due to solar storms and cosmic radiation.
The last is the worst thing on Mars. If the rock has been exposed on the surface for three billion years, there would be nothing left except a few atoms of even meters thicknesses of organics, all split appart into component molecules by the radiation.
So first you are looking for a habitat that had life originally, and where organics from life were accumulating. Then you are looking for organics that were deposited in just the right conditions. Then rapidly buried to depths of at least ten meters - if it has been exposed on the surface for a long time before burying, the organics will be gone through cosmic radiation, even if later rapidly uncovered. Then it has to remain undisturbed through flash floods and erosion by dust storms still at a depth of ten meters at least. Then rapidly uncovered in the geologically recent past, e.g. rapidly excavated by an impact crater, or by wind erosion.
There may be deposits that match all those criteria. But you can't tell which ones do and which don't by geological methods. Not too hard perhaps to tell if it is rapidly uncovered, but the rest of the story, including whether there was life there originally, and which layer has life if you have multiple layers of clays as in some of the most promising areas for the search - that is either almost impossible or completely impossible to tell by geological methods.
Imagine trying to study this region by returning samples to Earth for analysis? And now, imagine that you also have to drill below the surface in each of the layers to find samples less affected by ionizing radiation? And now imagine that you have to return all those samples back to Earth for testing for biosignatures? And now add to this, that a deposit that contains life may have life signatures in some parts of the deposit and not in other parts of the geologically identical layer?
Close up image of a region of stratified clays in the Mawrth Vallis region of Mars
Perhaps you can see why the exobiologists think this is not an efficient way to search for life on Mars?
DOESN'T MAKE SENSE TO DO LOTS OF SAMPLE RETURNS
In these conditions it just doesn't make sense to search for life by doing lots of sample returns, ranging over square kilometers, picking up samples everywhere, and gathering so much of everything that you can be pretty sure to include any life if it is there.
Artist impression of a Mars sample return. NASA plan to send one mission on the 2020 launch window to collect and cache samples, and another some time in the 2020s to collect the cache and return it to Earth.
The cache is unlikely to contain samples of early Mars life according to the exobiologists, requiring dozens of these missions to have a decent chance of success.
This mission would return less than a kilogram of material from Mars at a cost of millions of dollars per gram.
NASA do one high cost "flagship mission" in each decade.
It would be immensely expensive. It would take decades to explore just one small region as you follow up on ambiguous results just to find out that they are false leads.
And you might well still miss the one habitat with preserved life, which need not be geologically remarkable.
Instead you need to send in situ rovers with the ability to drill deep, to get below the effects of cosmic radiation. And able to examine many deposits, as we have no idea where the life would be preserved. In clays? In salts? In the remnants of hydrothermal vents? Only particular layers as you dig down?
That is the strategy of ExoMars. And the exobiologists support this strategy.
NASA originally planned to use this strategy too, they were going to partner with Europe and send a suit of instruments called UREY. Which the exobiologists supported as the right way ahead.
But they pulled out of that project, leaving the ESA to partner with Russia instead.
Then as a result of the decadal review they decided to do this sample return instead, against the advice of the exobiologists. The authors of the white paper include exobiologists who worked on the UREY project.
Work has continued on a successor to UREY even with no expectation that it will be sent to Mars in the near future. There are also many other ultra sensitive life detection instruments we can send, labs on a chip. The situation has changed radically in the last decade since the development of UREY.
Search for life directly by checking for metabolic reactions
This is for present day life. On the perhaps remote chance that there is present day life in the Mars equatorial regions, they could detect the life, even if it doesn't use any recognized form of conventional life chemistry. But requires the life to be "cultivable" in vitro when it meets appropriate conditions for growth.
For details see my Will NASA's Sample Return Answer Mars Life Questions? Need For Comparison With In Situ Search
PLANETARY PROTECTION ISSUES
Then there are also many planetary protection issues involved with returning a sample from Mars. After all what you hope to find there, best case scenario, is some unknown non terrestrial biochemistry.
And though the place where Curiosity is searching is not a likely place for present day life - and many say it is impossible there, others are not so sure. They already discovered a subsurface liquid layer, indirectly, in the sand dunes in salt deposits. The official line is that it is too cold for life, or too salty. That it achieves the right salinity, and the right temperature, but never both at the same time. However other exobiologists say that it may be possible for it to be habitable through life creating microclimates. It is also possible that there is life on the surface making use of the 100% humidity at night.
It is not at all certain and not nearly definite enough to return a sample on the hope that it contains present day life. But even if it is just a 1 in a 100 risk, or a 1 in a 1000 risk, it means that you have to take full precautions to protect Earth against return of present day life from another planet with alien biochemistry.
BUT MARS LIFE COULDN'T POSSIBLY HURT US? COMPARISON WITH ARTIFICIAL LIFE MADE IN A LABORATORY
So then - many say - that it couldn't possibly hurt us, being adapted to Mars. But now, just twist this around a bit. Instead of extra terrestrial life from Mars, suppose it is artificial life made in a laboratory on Earth. We are cautious even about releasing geneticially engineered life. But this potentially could be life with a different biochemistry, for instance, perhaps six bases instead of four for DNA. Do you think we should do that? Most people would say we shouldn't take the risk. That's not an academic exercise. Some scientist actually have engineered microbes to be able to produce inheritable DNA with six bases rather than four. They were careful to design them so that they couldn't reproduce "in the wild".
Now suppose the life from Mars has a more efficient metabolism. Or is better at photosynthesis. Or both. Then there's a possibility that it could, if released accidentally into the sea, take over from the Earth based green algae. Slowly at first, but if it has an edge, however small, it could eventually replace the Earth based green algae completely. And then maybe it is inedible by Earth life or even poisonous. Not through adaptation or design obviously. But because being based on a different biochemistry, it just is not edible to Earth life, or else, even produces chemicals that are poisonous or misincorporated due to resemblance to Earth life.
So we really have to take a lot of care with sample return. And - quarantine is no good. Because to check it is okay then we have to test it with all the environmments where it could cause harm - impractical.
COULD HARM HUMANS
It could also be harmful to humans too even. Our immune systems respond to chemical signatures such as peptides and carbohydrates to identify foreign life. If those aren't present, the life could just invade our bodies and they would not recognize them as harmful, no more harmful than, say, an artificial heart. We might have no immunity to it at all. Or our plants or animals ditto. This is an insight from the microbiologist Joshua Lederberg
MANY LAWS TO PASS, DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL - TAKE AT LEAST A DECADE JUST TO PASS ALL THE LAWS
So, as a result, there are many laws that would have to be passed before a sample can be returned, and a long period of public consultation. Many internal domestic laws in the country returning it - in case of the US it's a long process.
The lunar sample returns may make it seem easy because they passed the law on the quarantine regulations on the very day of launch of Apollo 11 giving nobody any opportunity to scrutinize it or recommend changes even.
This shows the crew of Apollo 12 in an open dinghy on the sea and behind you see the hatch wide open. The interior was dusty with Moon dust which got everywhere as the astronauts reported. If there was any life in the lunar dust, which at the time was thought unlikely already, it would have got into the ocean at this point.
Shows the Apollo 12 astronauts' wives outside the quarantine facility. Both photos from When Astronauts Spent Thanksgiving in Quarantine for Fear of Moon Disease
After that, and several other quarantine breaches, all the lunar quarantine procedures like this were mainly for show. They would have done almost nothing to protect Earth, even according to the scientific understanding of the time.Indeed, one of the issues identified was that the scientists and the management both didn't take the procedures seriously. In addition to this breach, also the astronauts walked across a deck lined with personal who would be exposed to any dust on their suits - and there was a clear breach of protocol in the sample quarantine lab. It's thought that there were probably many other unreported breaches of protocol.
One of several concerns for a Mars sample return is that many of the scientists and management involved may treat it as mainly for show in the same way, not be strongly motivated to enforce the tedious protocols, as they would be almost certain there is no life in the sample, much as for Apollo. If you do that, you might as well not build the facility in the first place.
For more about this: see Lessons Learned from the Quarantine of Apollo Lunar Samples
I think many who haven't looked into it might imagine something like that, it was so easy for Apollo,just do that again.
But the precautions were inadequate, not peer reviewed, not enforced, many lapses of protocol. Though Mars sample return would not involve humans directly, there would still be many opportunities for human error or accidents or even deliberate interference to lead to breaches of the protocols.
In any case there was no scientific justification for the length of the quarantine period. The latency period for some diseases such as leprosy is measured in decades. And what about microbes that have other effects, not on humans? And what would happen if the humans became ill? They would be rushed to hospital, and the quarantine regulations dropped at that point. Human quarantine I think can never work; the only solution is to make sure humans never come near a sample that could have extraterrestrial life in it.
Anyway, that would never be permitted nowadays. The laws have been rescinded. And what they did with Apollo 11 would not be permitted nowadays. You can't expect to just pass a law on the day of launch of the sample return mission, and that's it done, as was the situation in the 1960s.
Also there are many international treaties to be considered, which were not present back then. Also internal domestic laws of other countries could also be relevant.
Margaret Race of Seti looked into this
She found that under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) (which did not exist in the Apollo era) a formal environment impact statement is likely to be required, and public hearings during which all the issues would be aired openly. This process is likely to take up to several years to complete.
During this process, she found, the full range of worst accident scenarios, impact, and project alternatives would be played out in the public arena. Other agencies such as the Environment Protection Agency, Occupational Health and Safety Administration, etc, may also get involved in the decision making process.
The laws on quarantine will also need to be clarified as the regulations for the Apollo program were rescinded.
It is also probable that the presidential directive NSC-25 will apply which requires a review of large scale alleged effects on the environment and is carried out subsequent to the other domestic reviews and through a long process, leads eventually to presidential approval of the launch.
Then apart from those domestic legal hurdles, there are numerous international regulations and treaties to be negotiated in the case of a Mars Sample Return, especially those relating to environmental protection and health. Domestic laws of other states might also be invoked and need to be negotiated.
She concluded that the public of necessity has a significant role to play in the development of the policies governing Mars Sample Return.
Margaret Race: Planetary Protection, Legal Ambiguity, and the Decision Making Process for Mars Samplesee also my Mars Sample Return - Legal Issues and Need for International Public Debate
When you look at what is involved, and then bear in mind how even a simple change in the law can often take ten years by itself - you can see it is likely to be a long process.
HALF BILLION DOLLAR PURPOSE BUILT RECEIVING LABORATORY TO RECEIVE THE ONE SMALL SAMPLE RETURN
As well as that if you look at the requirements for a sample receiving laboratory - well it's not a simple glove compartment in a biohazard 4 facility. Just to return that tiny sample would require a new half billion dollar building involving technology never tested before. It would have to be finished well before the launch and the staff already trained. I think it is unlikely that we have either that building or the legislation in place for a sample return in the 2020s.
One of the designs submitted for consideration for a Mars sample return facility. In this version of the facility, all the sample handling and inspection is done using telerobotics controlled from outside the heart of the facility. For my summaries of the material from the United States National Research Council, the European Science Foundation, the Office of Planetary Protection and other mainstream studies see Mars Sample Return - Legal Issues and Need for International Public Debate
Extraterrestrial life could be as small as 40 nm in diameter, possibly smaller. Well below the optical limit. Each successive review has recommended lower size limites based on newer research. latest Mars sample return review by the ESF recommended that it should be able to contain particles as small as 10 nm in diameter for safety for a Mars sample return.
The problem is that you have no idea what is in the sample. It is easy to contain a known hazard like the smallpox virus, say, or anthrax. It is extremely difficult though when you have no idea what it is you need to contain and have to design it to contain all forms of terrestrial life and not just that, also possibly unknown forms of extraterrestrial life that could be smaller than any known Earth lifeform and possibly undetectable in many tests for Earth based life. such as DNA sequencing.
So, it's not as simple and obvous as it seems to geologists and most who think about this apart from exobiologists and those who have looked into it really thoroughly.
And the thing is - that it is one of the few genuinely existential risks. A giant asteroid impact could not make humans extinct. We are a very adaptable species able to survive in the Arctic, or the tropics, with minimal technology. Turtles, crocodiles, small mammals, flying dinosaurs ancestors to the birds, and dawn redwoods all survived the impact. So humans with technology surely would also. Asteroids can also be deflected given enough warning.
But - extra terrestrial biology, like artificial life created in a laboratory, could potentially make humans extinct. This chance as well as other possible risks from life returned from Mars may be small (we have no way to assign a probability but most think it is a small, but as Carl Sagan said, in the context of discussion of human pathogens "…The likelihood that such pathogens exist is probably small, but we cannot take even a small risk with a billion lives."
I have two ideas for how this may pan out.
STERILIZATION IDEA
First, I think it is very unlikely that the US will return an unsterilized sample from Mars myself.
When the time comes, the expense, the long legal process, probably objections from those concerned about safety - I think they will just give up and return a sterilized sample. Especially since it is unlikely to contain life in the first place. I hope so anyway. Because the risk doesn't seem worth the return.
They have already said that they will not sterilize the sample return container for Curiosity's successor 100%. They will sterilize it to a high standard, but not 100%.
So if you find amino acids in it, say, you'll never know if it was from Mars or Earth. That's the same problem that plagues study of Martian meteorites, that objectors can always say that perhaps the organics got into the meteorite on Earth.
So - they are not being very serious about the search for biosignatures anyway. This makes it clear that their main priority is geological plus a technological demo, or they would make sterilization a top priority. It is not something it makes sense to economize on if your priority is biosignature detection. So, why not just sterilize the sample itself on the return journey from Mars?
Use an ionizing radiation source, send it in the ship that picks up the sample from Mars orbit - and blast it with the equivalent of perhaps a hundred million years of radiation on Mars (or whatever is judged adequate)?
That won't make much difference to the geology and you can take account of it in the analysis.
On the remote chance it does have present day or past life - then it also won't make much difference to the past life. It's going to be a sample from the surface so even if a young sample not likely to be so young that a hundred million years worth of present day Mars surface levels of radiation will matter, and even if recently exposed, chances are that it was on the surface for many hundreds of millions of years at some time in the past before it was buried. And for present day life, you can tell that it was there via biosignatures that would still be readable after sterilization, on the low chance that there is present day life in the sample.
Then it is a technology demo, and also, of value for geology, but not a planetary protection issue. Then you don't need the legislation, and the sample return building and all that. So a huge saving, 100% planetary protection, and no loss in geological value and little by way of impact on past life detection on the remote chance it is there, and you still detect present day life if it was there - except of course that with the minute traces expected for both past and present day life the contamination due to inadequate sterilization would probably make them ambiguous anyway.
RETURN TO TELEROBOTIC FACILITY ABOVE GEO IDEA
Or - perhaps a better solution - return it to above geostationary orbit. There, it's at maximum delta v from Earth and from the Moon. And study it only telerobotically. By then surely we can send hundreds of tons into geostationary orbit easily. So won't be a big restriction. Almost any experiment except ones involving large particle accelerators, can be done up there in orbit.
But don't send humans there. Because once humans are involved you then have the vexing issue of quarantine, that no quarantine period is long enough, because of latency periods, and because anyway the microbes or whatever they are might not even be an issue for humans at all but could be carried back to Earth by them. And in any case, if a human astronaut became ill what do you think mission control would do? They wouldn't just leave them in orbit to die from what could be some simple Earth based illness. They would immediately as top priority emergency return them to Earth and then what value is the quarantine period?
Instead study them with telerobots, always sent one way only, to the orbital facility which would gradually grow as more and more scientists send equipment and telerobotic modules there.
That is until you know what is in the sample. Once thoroughly understood you can return it to Earth. Or if you can sterilize it, return sterilized parts of it to Earth/
I think we should do something like that if we return a sample to Earth's vicinity.
STUDY IN MARS ORBIT IDEA
Or alternatively return it to Mars orbit, similar situation, but humans in Mars orbit - advantage there is that there is much less time for the sample to deteriorate if it has present day life and you don't know for sure how to sustain it. Once again - humans never go near the sample itself which remains in a separate facility. Obviously this is not for the 2020s sample return but for some later date when we may have humans in Mars orbit.
STUDY IN SITU BEST RIGHT NOW
But I think it is far better to study Mars life in situ. And treat the NASA mission as just a technology demo - at least for the search for life. Unless ExoMars discovers present day life.
If ExoMars does find present day life, I think it may then become clear to everyone that extensive precautions are needed, and perhaps then this idea of a telerobotic study in a high orbit just above geostationary orbit may then seem a good way to do it. Remember we can already do surgery via telerobotics and by then it will be very much advanced. We may well be exploring the Moon via telerobotics just as we do ocean floors
The advantages of return to a telerobotic orbital facility are
Once we have a clear idea of what we have in the sample, either from in situ study or from telerobotic study, then we can try the long process of passing laws and devising facilities to return it to Earth. That is if it contains life independently originated or evolved for some time independently of Earth on Mars.
At that point the need for caution would be clear to everyone and so they would take a lot more care, less chance of human error. And as well as that, we would already know a fair bit about it, so it is no longer prepairing for all eventualities in an unknown hazard, but a known hazard. That might well simplify many things. And make the legal process simpler and make it easier to know that it is safe and that you are taking the necessary precautions.
Or you might find out early on that there is no life in the sample. At that point, just sterilize the whole thing, as a precaution just in case, then return it to Earth. No need for legislation as there is no need for new legislation to return a sterilized sample to Earth. In that case, there is almost no delay.
Some of the proposals for sample return from Mars already see the sample returned to a module sent to a high orbit around Earth or the Moon to receive it and return it to Earth, to deal with issues of preventing sample container damage during the return to Earth. This approach is similar - collect the container in lunar orbit or above GEO. But then, instead of returning to Earth, study it in situ using instruments sent in the retrieval spacecraft. Then if the results are pretty conclusive that there is no life there - already - then just sterilize and return to Earth. If ambiguous, then sterilize part of it and return for geological investigation, e.g. in particle accelerators and continue to study the rest of it in the facility which would expand with more instruments and modules, especially if traces of present day life is found there, until it is thoroughly understood.
If extant life is found, viable also, on that remote possibility, then decisions are made based on what is found. If considered extremely hazardous, the facility becomes a nucleus of a new telerobotic research facility in orbit. And at any rate in that case, those concerned would take extreme care as by then they know what is in it and will take as much care as they would for artificial life in Earth labs.
I wrote this because the work of the exobiologists on this topic is little known even amongst many who are expert on Mars space exploration issues generally, and even amongst the geologists working on the missions.
For some reason this viewpoint is just not heard much at all and I think it needs to be more widely known and discussed. At the very least I think their white paper should have triggered a full review by the decadal review for a proper comparison of the two approaches, which has never been done. They should at the very least have recommended such a review, even if they endorsed the sample return as their favoured option subject to review. I have no idea why this was not done and why the paper was never mentioned, a paper by mainstream reputable exobiologists who had worked on the only recent NASA project to design instruments to send to search for life in situ.
Anyway given that NASA is now committed to a sample return, perhaps the ideas suggested here could be used to make sure it is safe as regards planetary protection - and at the same time preserve its value for geology, and as a technology demo.
And everyone is agreed we should return samples, and that the best way to study them eventually is using Earth facilities. The question is how and when. The exobiologists are just saying that we have not yet reached the stage where this is the way to go.
As they say in their paper:
"Two strategies have been suggested for seeking signs of life on Mars: The aggressive robotic pursuit of biosignatures with increasingly sophisticated instrumentation vs. the return of samples to Earth (MSR). While the former strategy, typified by the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), has proven to be painfully expensive, the latter is likely to cripple all other activities within the Mars program, adversely impact the entire Planetary Science program, and discourage young researchers from entering the field."
"In this White Paper we argue that it is not yet time to start down the MSR path. We have by no means exhausted our quiver of tools, and we do not yet know enough to intelligently select samples for possible return. In the best possible scenario, advanced instrumentation would identify biomarkers and define for us the nature of potential sample to be returned. In the worst scenario, we would mortgage the exploration program to return an arbitrary sample that proves to be as ambiguous with respect to the search for life as ALH84001."
They are not saying that we should never do it. They are just saying that in their professional opinion as exobiologists, this is not the right time to do it.
From the point of view of planetary protection also, it is far easier to protect against known hazards than to try to cover all the bases and design a facility that is able to contain any form of exobiology, no matter how exotic, that we can imagine might possibly exist on Mars. That's why the receiving facility is so expensive, and yet also, still possibly inadequate, because we have no idea what it would need to contain until we can do some in situ study on Mars first to find out what it is we need to protect against, if anything.
And without the in situ search for biosignatures, we could pass that decade or several decades of laws, build a half billion dollar facility - and then discover at the end that there is no life in the samples and that we discover no more than we could have found out if we just sterilized it in the first place.
What I expect to happen, just venturing a guess here, is that while NASA are doing these sample return demos - possibly China also -and probably sterilized as the easiest way to comply with planetary protection issues - that ExoMars and its successors will continue to search for life in situ. It may be joined by other countries that see this as a better strategy - both Japan and India have been interested in Mars and India successfully sent an orbiter there, and more likely to do in situ searches than the much more expensive sample returns. As technology to send large masses to Mars improves, at lower costs, other parties will join in as well.
Eventually these in situ searches will be the ones to discover it, maybe not the first mission but one of them. At that point then it may well turn out to be a good thing that NASA has developed this sample return technology. But then it would be return of a known sample.
And if they do find present day life, then everyone would recognize the importance of sample containment and they would take it seriously. In that case the idea of a telerobotic temporary, and possibly permanent facility in a high orbit above GEO may become very attractive. It would not require any new legislation to be passed, but could be covered by COSPAR workshops approving the idea.
See also
Not in three months, that would be faster than light travel. Now, if you could travel extremely quickly, close to speed of light, you could achieve a three months subjective travel time, if there w...
(more)Not in three months, that would be faster than light travel. Now, if you could travel extremely quickly, close to speed of light, you could achieve a three months subjective travel time, if there were astronauts on board. But we are nowhere near that. And the first probes would surely be robotic meaning that the subjective travel time is not important.
It might though be possible to achieve a velocity of a tenth of the speed of light in a robotic craft. That's a commonly stated goal. You could then get to Alpha Centauri 43 years.
There are ideas for faster travel too. This recent suggestion could use laser propulsion to propel a one gram spaceship to the nearest stars at 25% of the speed of light, so in less than 20 years, if it worked.
Lasers Could Send A Wafer-Thin Spaceship To A Star
More here
There are many other ideas. They include
At the destination star system, then once there they could spread out thin film mirrors, or if you manage to send many there, they could deploy in swarms making a phased array to communicate back to Earth.
They could do a flyby. If so, in and then out. Or a "fry by" where they go so close to the destination sun they slow down through friction with its atmosphere, a bit like aerobraking. Also can use solar sails and the strong light from a sun in such a fryby to brake.
If you go to a system with multiple stars like Alpha Centauri, you could use a fryby of one of the stars to then target another - and then may be able to slow down enough to go into a capture orbit around the second sun.
A larger craft could also slow down by using lasers from Earth - a large mirror which it releases and the light from Earth is reflected back from that larger mirror which goes ahead of it, to slow down the following spacecraft.
There are lots of ideas out there, but the technology isn't here quite yet and hard to tell which of them will be the best contender.
However having seen the pace of technology in my own lifetime, e.g. mobile phones, what's more with live video communication too - which when I was young in the 1960s and 1970s, was a dream of far future science fiction, then I think it's not impossible that we get small interstellar robotic spacecraft with a journey time of less than 100 years some time this century, maybe even lightweight robotic craft able to get there in decades.
But we certainly don't have that technology yet. Just lots of ideas about how to do it. Speculating about interstellar spacecraft now is a bit like speculating about mobile phone technology in the 1970s. You could guess the functionality - what it could do, but it is another matter altogether to sort out the engineering. And some things you can't predict such as the invention of fractal antennas which so shrunk the mobile phone antenna that it doesn't even need an external antenna any more, just an internal antenna inside the case. Nobody could have predicted that, without first thinking of the innovative idea that made it possible.
See also
I can relate to your frustration. I sometimes want to know the source for an answer. Often the answer does give a source. If not, it's worth looking in the comments as someone else might have asked...
(more)I can relate to your frustration. I sometimes want to know the source for an answer. Often the answer does give a source. If not, it's worth looking in the comments as someone else might have asked the same question. And if not you can ask yourself in the comments and perhaps get an answer from an expert there to your comment question, either the author of the answer or someone else - or start a discussion there.
I think myself that if someone answers a question, even if they are expert, that it's good to give a citation if they can. Because - it's surprising how often you think something is true, but when you check the citation, then you find that you missed out some important small detail that you'd forgotten, or didn't realize was so important, and that can slant your answer and even make it incorrect.
It depends. I mean if it is a question about airplane pilots and the answer is by an airplane pilot, say, about the layout of the cockpit and the instruments they use and protocols they follow, it's absurd to ask for a citation. That's where quora scores over wikipedia. On wikipedia an airplane pilot could not just describe the cockpit layout and explain what every instrument does, they also have to find citations to articles online describing how airplane cockpits work. Which may seem absurd, though understandable given the way wikipedia works, if they fly that plane every day themselves.
When I answer questions then I give citations as much as possible. Yet still often get asked for citations on things I said that I forgot to give a source for, or assumed that "everybody knows the source".
Then another factor, on Quora experts or indeed anyone can write opinion pieces where they give their own conclusions, and the reasoning they themselves used to lead to that conclusion. So long as that is made clear, that you don't attribute it to someone else falsely, I think that's good also. In that case then the author themselves is the source. They might sometimes give links to other things they have written on the same topic. Again I see this as a strength of quora - combined with the possibility for many people to write their own opinion pieces as answers to the same question. Many questions are even phrased in such a way that it is clear the author is asking for your personal opinion.
Some answers have comments switched off. Though that is an option in quora and they are doing nothing wrong to do that, I think it is generally not a good sign. Those answers are often somewhat lower quality and for me it gives the impression that the author is so sure they are right they aren't interested in any corrections or comments - which usually, paradoxically, means they are wrong or at least not correct in every detail.
Just upvoted Robin Craig's answer to Can two people repopulate Earth? Is it possible? Makes it clear that it is possible. Thought I'd fill it out a little more with some images and hopefully draw ...
(more)Just upvoted Robin Craig's answer to Can two people repopulate Earth? Is it possible? Makes it clear that it is possible. Thought I'd fill it out a little more with some images and hopefully draw attention to it as it seems there are many answers here being upvoted by people who are not aware of this study and say it is impossible:
The second paper he gives is particularly clear. A pair of mouflon (wild sheep)
One Mouflon Ram
Ovis orientalis - by Jörg Hempel
Mouflon Ram
Mouflon ewe Ovis musimon by Doronenko
Not those actual individuals - they are for illustration purposes. But just two wild sheep introduced to an island formed an entire population which was not only healthy but increased in genetic diversity. Unexpected heterozygosity in an island mouflon population founded by a single pair of individuals
Humans have the advantage as others have said that they would know that they are an endangered species and would decide what to do about it.
Obviously would have to have a lot of inbreeding. It's possible some humans might decide this is not acceptable and they'd prefer to be extinct. But biologically it seems feasible.
SCENARIO?
The question doesn't give a scenario. Hard to think of something realistic that would kill all humans except for one couple. Or that would lead to everyone dying a natural death except one young couple.
Even an illness that sweeps the world would leave some survivors, including for instance uncontacted indigenous people. Things like artificial life escaping from the laboratories and reproducing in the wild and replacing Earth DNA with XNA based life throughout the world would kill everyone and would still be there at the start of the plot.
I see it as science fiction rather than future possibility. So then in those science fiction scenarios where only two people are left alive, then sometimes they make it so that everyone dies except them in some plague that affects the entire world. They are, say, doing an experiment in living underground for years without any contact with anyone else, including no communication - then when the experiment is over, they come to the surface and find they are the only people left in an abandoned world. That sort of thing. So they have the technology, have books to recover their knowledge etc, but only the two of them.
Or. you can suppose that they are genuis scientists that find the solution to reversing the thing that kills absolutely everyone in the world, but too late to save everyone except themselves.
Another possibility from science fiction is the idea of an aged population where they have artificial ways of giving birth, and most people typically live to some great age like a million, but new children are born, say just two of them. The rest of their society dies of old age. These are the only ones left. And they make a fresh start.
It's one of the most overused tropes in pulp fiction. Adam and Eve Plot - TV Tropes .
Sometimes they are in a world with no technology and many dangers, in which case they probably have little chance, but sometimes they are surrounded by high technology, automated hospitals, libraries. Or maybe are in a starship with all the technology of the starship at their disposal. I'm assuming a scenario like that.
And - a bit more clarification got from a discussion here: How many people are required to maintain genetic diversity?
IDEA OF A MINIMUM POPULATION AND PROBABLE NEED FOR PLANNED BREEDING
The idea of a minimum population is based on the idea of unplanned breeding, where anyone mates randomly with anyone else of the opposite sex, and is a probabilistic thing.
If you can plan who mates with who, then - perhaps one couple has enough genetic diversity, if unrelated originally and they don't have some serious defect for their children to inherit.
They would be able to build up to a population of a few hundred, and then would be able to survive after that, except, that the entire population would be vulnerable to some virus or other condition they are not adapted to until they have survived long enough for some adaptations to arise through actual genetic mutation rather than just shuffling existing genes.
And the example of the sheep would seem to show practically that if you are lucky, then two would be enough if you are lucky with the individuals.
For another example of a species that has survived a major bottleneck, nearly all golden hamsters
originate from a single litter. Golden hamster
I know it depends on the species as well. You can't draw conclusions from humans directly from sheep or golden hamsters. But these are a few points that seem to have been left out of the top rated answers here, maybe someone with expertise can say more about it?
Actually as others have said we do have a problem of latency of between 4 and 25 minutes. But that's not the main reason our rovers on Mars are so slow.
It is easy to think that a human on Mars woul...
(more)Actually as others have said we do have a problem of latency of between 4 and 25 minutes. But that's not the main reason our rovers on Mars are so slow.
It is easy to think that a human on Mars would be much more flexible when you look at the current robotic missions. But they don't give a fair comparison. The main problem right now isn't the robot, it's the time delay sending signals to Mars.
Opportunity took ten years to travel as far as the early wikipedia.orgLunokhod 2 rover operated remotely from Russia did on the Moon in about four` months.
It's much worse than the time delay of the light speed travel to Mars would suggest. Because we have low bandwidth connections and only communicate once a day typically. If the rovers were on Pluto, it would make almost no difference to the time it takes to explore.
So, before you can make a proper comparison, first we have to increase the bandwidth for communications to Mars. A human mission would have broadband - well why wait for humans? Set up broadband 24/7 communications with robots on Mars first and see how they do after that.
Also it's about time we did more robotic exploration of the Moon. Without the time delay - and if we had a capable rover, we'd surely do much better than the Russians did with Lunakhod. The Apollo astronauts traveled as far in a couple of days as Lunakhod 2 did in four months.
We can also speed it up even further, so that for many activities on Mars the latency is effectively zero, using a technique borrowed from gaming of "artificial real time"
The idea is that you build up a model of the area of Mars you are exploring on Earth. Much as they already do. But the model is updated regularly in a continuous broadband stream from Mars. And so just as they plan the next day's movements using the model they have so far, you would use the model of Mars you already have to inform your movements for the next half hour, or five minutes or whatever.
This would work especially well since much of the time they are exploring a known area of Mars, going back and forth from one rock to another. You'd soon have a detailed exact model of that area. And things don't change on Mars rapidly. Even after a dust storm. Some of the sand dunes move at meters a year, like sand dunes in the Earth deserts. But you'd not need to worry about that on this timescale.
Essentially it is a fixed unchanging landscape on timescales of minutes or even days. Even the winds, though so fast, yet it's winds in a vacuum, and they don't have the capability to do more than to move an autumn leaf. The dust storm in "The Martian" is poetic license for the sake of a good story.
So you would soon have a detailed exact model of the landscape you are exploring. Even when traveling long distances, then you would have exact models of everything except regions that are hidden behind boulders or over the tops of small rises or sand dunes. Much of the time you'd be driving over a known and modeled landscape. Especially since with broadband communications, then the landscape is continually updated as you drive. If you get to the crest of a dune and don't know what is beyond, it would be shown coloured, perhaps green or blue - to show uncertainty. So you then wait for the landscape to turn red and then continue. You might have to wait for up to half an hour occasionally. You might have to make wide turns when you go round a boulder or outcrop. But basically you could drive it from Earth pretty much in real time. I see no reason why they couldn't be driven as fast as the Apollo rovers - and faster. Without the constraints to remain within a walking distance to get back to the lander before the oxygen runs out, they could travel many tens of kilometers a day.
Especially if you then add in some smarts and autonomy. And make them self righting and able to extract themselves if stuck in a sand dune.
So, in short I think we are nowhere near exposing the limits of robotic exploration of Mars. Before we can make a proper comparison with human astronauts, we have to set up a broadband communication with Mars, and allocate enough receiver time so that we can communicate with the rovers there 24/7 (which may involve building new radio telescope receivers - but it could also involve laser communications which may give us much more bandwidth at a lot less expense).
Then our rovers need to be equipped to be able to drive faster, at tens of kilometers an hour. That can certainly be done, as of course proposed human driven rovers on Mars would not be limited to driving only 100 meters a day. The lunar rovers could drive much faster and there are many ways we could do the same on Mars. E.g. send batteries as for the lunar rovers, but of course much greater power density with modern technology - and recharge them using a large flexible lightweight thin film array spread over the Mars surface, as suggested for Mars One. Or using fuel manufactured from a hydrogen feed-stock from the atmosphere. Anything like that.
After we do that, we will then be able to explore the limitations of what semi-autonomous rovers can do on Mars with human guidance and artificial real time programming.
I think humans can help if they are on the spot. Not for driving, particularly, except in unusual situations. That could be done from Earth with artificial real time. But for decisions during experiments. If you drill a hole on Mars for instance, or lift a boulder, or scrape away some sand, it will be from 4 to 25 minutes before you see what it has uncovered. So humans in the loop could speed that sort of thing a lot. Also experiments where you can make decisions in real time and tweak parameters in real time.
But they don't need to be on the surface for that either. The humans could be in orbit operating the robots on the surface via telepresence. That's far better for planetary protection, and also for safety of the humans - and means both are used in ways that exploit their strengths. Humans need habitats, oxygen etc. Robots don't and can just sit still in one spot on Mars for years on end if necessary just using solar power. Robots so far are poor at decision making. Humans are not adapted to the Mars environment and we would not even be able to see the landscape clearly as the rocks would look all the same colour pretty much. But via telepresence and digitally enhanced broadband streaming from the surface we'd be able to inhabit a landscape down there with rocks that are the same colour to our eyes as their counterparts on Earth so easy for geologists to understand and identify and with distinctions of colour that our eyes can pick up easily. And all of it streamed in real time back to Earth to make sure nothing is missed. With stereo vision, haptic feedback, binaural hearing, anything we can add to make it a more immersive environment for the humans, as immersive as a computer game, but a real environment on another planet..
Telexploration: How video game technologies can take NASA to the next level
As for sending humans to Mars, I think we are at a much earlier stage than that. We are like people who have crossed the Mississippi a few times around forty odd years ago and since then have been shuttling back and forth between the shore and a tiny island on the near side. We aren't yet at the stage where we can safely tackle ocean voyages. We need to develop confidence in crossing large rivers first. So I'm a Moon firster for humans. It will also give us an opportunity to develop telerobotic control of rovers on the Moon from Earth or from lunar caves, which will be very useful for later telerobotic exploration of Mars from Mars orbit.
See my: Human Spaceflight At "Coastline Hugging Phase" - Lunar Villages Not Interplanetary Voyages - Op. Ed.
My answer comes from a different perspective from most. Following Penrose, I think strong AI is a part of non computable physics. This suggests that rather than computer programs, it might involve...
(more)My answer comes from a different perspective from most. Following Penrose, I think strong AI is a part of non computable physics. This suggests that rather than computer programs, it might involve genetic manipulation, artificial living cells, or biological neurons.
So then strong AI might require us to attempt to create human babies with enlarged brains through genetic manipulation, or to splice gene sequences from humans into the DNA of a blue whale with its huge brain, or some such. The ethical issues then would be similar to those you would get from genetic modification of human embryos.
Or, if mechanical, they might be machines that have much more in common with creatures made of living cells than our present day computers. Not just neural nets, which attempt to abstract the cells of our brain into simple logical units, as those are part of computable physics.
I'm a mathematician and programmer and in the 1980s through to the 1990s, I studied mathematical logic at postgraduate level at Oxford university (with Robin Gandy as my supervisor, studying Strict Finitism, i.e. ways of doing mathematics such as calculus, without infinity).
My logic research was in a different area but that's how I first came across Roger Penrose's ideas about the limitations on what's possible with machine learning. He was in the process of writing his books on the subject at the time, The Emperor's New Mind and Shadows of the Mind , and gave talks about them to logicians, philosophers, and physicists in Oxford, which I attended.
I recently wrote a science blog article about this topic and made it into a kindle booklet on Amazon
If Programs Can't Understand Truth - Ethics of Artificial Intelligence Babies
BACKGROUND TO THE QUESTION
Just a few words for those who are new to the topic. I added this section because my answer is getting shared quite widely on social media just now (49 shares so far as of writing) and I think some of those coming to it could do with a bit of an introduction.
First, a dystopian threat is one that leads to a future that is undesirable or frightening. It's the opposite of a utopia, a future where everything is wonderful.
For artificial intelligence, the idea is that at some point in the future we may be able to develop artificial intelligences through programming that are equal in intelligence to humans but capable of living much faster, and able to rewrite their own programs to become even more intelligent.
Then, the story goes, within a short time of first "awakening" as a human level of intelligence self modifying program, it might be able to "lift itself by its bootstraps", to build more and more super intelligent versions of itself,. It would start by rapidly learning all the physics, maths, and science we already have, and then having mastered all that, it would start to develop new theories and ideas that we can't even imagine. With the fast computers that it would be running on in this future, the idea is that it might go through all of this perhaps in as short a time as a few hours.
In this way, the story continues, from a human level intelligence it might rapidly develop into an artificial super intelligence, and start to do things we can't begin to understand, because we just aren't clever enough, designing and using machines we have no idea what they are, or what their purpose is, and that we couldn't understand even if it explained them to us as clearly as it possibly could.
And that then, the fear is that it wouldn't have our best interests at heart - and perhaps has some objective that means nothing to us. Or else - that it would just lead to a society that humans find scary because we haven't a clue what is going on and why the AIs are doing the things that they do.
While, the story continues, if we can make sure this future goes in a direction that we want, it could instead become a utopia, all our physical problems solved by the ingenious discoveries of these super intelligent AIs,
It sounds like pure science fiction. Indeed, something like this is often used as a plot theme in sci. fi.
But those who think this will happen often mention near future timescales. They call it the "Singularity" because of this predicted moment of sudden rapid exponential rise in the capabilities of AI. For more background see Tim Urban: The Artificial Intelligence Revolution.
There are many academics, science fiction writers and so on, who actually think this is going to happen some time in this very century, some say it will happen as soon as 2040 or earlier. They call it the future Technological singularity
However there are some who think that this can never happen in the way described. And that's how I see it myself.
I do think that more intelligent creatures than us may well be possible, and that we could maybe create them also. But I think this won't happen through programming.
That then leads to different ideas about what the ethical challenges are. It also makes it unlikely, to impossible, that you get a sudden, self reinforcing, recursive runaway effect like this. It becomes much more like David Brin's idea of "uplift" in his fictional Uplift Universe. Indeed I'd see that as a form of artificial intelligence, and the most likely way to strong AI, using genetics to increase the intelligence of other creatures like dolphins, or chimps, or indeed ourselves.
And as you will see in my answer, this also leads to the idea that strong AIs need protection from us as much as we need protection from them.
FIRST - TO CLEAR UP WHAT IT MEANS TO SAY THAT STRONG AI IS PART OF NON COMPUTABLE PHYSICS
So, first, following Roger Penrose's ideas, I don't think that there is any chance at all that the methods being followed in pursuit of machine learning will lead to artificial intelligences.
There's a lot of confusion about what it is Penrose is actually saying, never mind the arguments he has for his point of view. So that's what I'd like to focus on here. And then show how this leads to a rather different projection for the future and attitude to what the issues are in weak and strong AI.
NOT ALL PHYSICS IS COMPUTABLE
There is no reason at all why all of physics has to be computable, i.e. capable of being simulated in computer programs. And indeed, it is not.
As a simple example, there is no way to simulate true randomness computationally. You can do a good approximation, but however hard you try, it will always have some patterning to it. Yet we have examples of pure randomness in physics, e.g. in radioactive decay.
I think AI is another example of non computable physics, a much more difficult example than randomness. I think that the essence of what makes us able to recognize and understand truth is in the bit that gets left out of any computer simulation. There are many problems in maths that are non computable, so why not also in physics?
Now, many people have already decided they don't accept Roger Penrose's argument as valid. If so - just forget about his particular argument, and think about his conclusion instead, and the question it raises.
IS STRONG AI A PROBLEM IN COMPUTABLE PHYSICS?
There is no way to prove that all physics is computable, as after all we've seen that radioactive decay is a counterexample, for starters. Also, we have a strong filter operating here, since we try to reduce everything to computable problems. When a situation is not amenable to computer models, we simplify it until it is, and use approximations.
For instance in quantum mechanics, then the most complex system we can model exactly is the hydrogen atom. In the Newtonian theory of gravity, we have exact ("analytic") models for the 2 body problem but normally have to use approximations when we get to three or more bodies mutually interacting.
With models of the brain similarly, we can't model every atom, nowhere near. The idea is to model it as simplified nodes in a neural network in place of neurons.
So, why assume the functioning of the brain has to be computable? Perhaps this process of simplification, which leads for instance to neural nets, is the step where we lose whatever it is that permits humans to understand truth?
His opponents attack his arguments and conclusions, he replies, and they reply again, resulting eventually in long intricate arguments that hardly anyone can follow. It's understandable that not many people find this convincing.
But one thing it does show up is that we have no proof that programming can ever lead to strong AI.
His opponents attack his arguments and conclusions, then he replies, and they reply again, resulting eventually in long intricate arguments that hardly anyone can follow. But none of them have ever come up with any logically convincing argument in the other direction.
It's an asymmetrical situation. We have a disputed proof that the problem is non computable. As far as I know we have nothing by way of an attempt at logical proof that strong AI is within the realm of computable physics.
IMPRESSIVE PROGRAMMING AND ANTHROPOMORPHISATION
I remember how impressed I was when I first "talked" to a computer program back in 1971 using a teletype.
It may have been one of these, I don't remember the model but it looked like this, a machine with a continuously scrolling paper roll. You could type on the keyboard, and then it would type back at you, after a pause to work out what to say, simultaneously scrolling the paper up so you could read what it said. This is just the machine for communicating with the computer, which was in another room.
By Rama & Musée Bolo - Own work, CC BY-SA 2.0 fr, File:Teletype-IMG 7287.jpg
It was just yes / no questions, with the computer asking me the questions and going on to a different question depending on what I said - but back then it was just "wow" the idea you would type words on a teletype, even just Y or N, and the computer would then respond by typing something back instantly.
To me, in an era where nobody had computers, and they were only available as huge research machines that filled an entire room - it felt almost like there must be a mind there directing its typing.
But it wasn't just newbies like me, on my gap year before university, learning programming and encountering a computer for my first time, in the Culham Research labs computational physics group for the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (with the team lead by Richard Peckover - obituary here ).
Back then many people, even experts, were impressed by the capabilities of computers. Things like -" WOW - a computer can play a game of checkers against a human!!!!"
This is even earlier, back in 1961 Claude Shannon "Father of information theory":
"I confidently expect that within a matter of ten or fifteen years, something will emerge from the laboratories which is not too far from the robot of science fiction fame"
1:52 into this video (and checkers game is 0.50 into it)
The Thinking Machine (Artificial Intelligence in the 1960s)
Now of course, none of that would impress anyone now. Computers asking us questions are even a nuisance sometimes, like our word processors asking us "Are you writing a letter" and offering to help. And a computer able to play checkers wouldn't be "Wow" but "Duh". Fifty five years makes a big difference in technology, especially when you look back at past predictions.
Still, even now, chatbots can be quite impressive to those who are new to them, for a few seconds until they trip up. I expect most of you have tried this, but if not, try chatting to one of these chatbots such as the Mitsuku Chatbot.
Deep Blue is able to beat human opponents, but does it by looking much further ahead and considering many more possibilities than humans do.
Deep dreams is also quite impressive to us in its way, in the way it "finds things" in a scene that aren't there, much as we see things in clouds.
Also we get impressed by machines that are able to walk.
Commentators even read human intention into them. But this is just a machine that can walk like us and avoid obstacles. It does not have emotions or intentions, and for instance, there is nothing there to mind about being pushed over or repeatedly getting the boxes taken away from it. It's just a program doing what programs do.
It's a natural tendency to anthropomorphise anything that resembles us, even dolls and action figures of course. Back in the sixteenth century people were very impressed by clockwork automata, such as Jacques de Vaucanson's flute player.
I'm sure we will get artificial intelligence that is good enough to seem almost alive to us in the future in more and more challenging situations, and sometimes for more than just a few seconds at a time. And in specialist areas like chess or go, they can be as good as humans or even better.
But as with all those previous examples, as we get used to them, they will seem less impressive. I don't think this process of refinement will ever exhibit true intelligence. It just seems a more elaborate version of the clockwork automata that were so impressive in the sixteenth century.
SCOPE OF THIS ANSWER
In this answer I will cover his conclusion, not the arguments, which are intricate.
I will also give reasons why I think that the task of making a strong AI - an artificial intelligence functionally equivalent to human intelligence - might be harder than almost anyone in the artificial intelligence community supposes, at least several orders of magnitude harder. And talk about what form it could take if it involves non computable physics.
And then also, I'll talk about our responsibilities for such intelligences, and the improbability that they would have any kind of coherent objective or world view when first created. And I'll talk about how they would nevertheless have a capacity for suffering, and so would also need to be protected from us.
NO PARTICULAR CONSTRAINTS FOR COMPUTER PROGRAMS
With this background, my conclusion in this answer is that there is no need for particular constraints on machine intelligence if by that you mean restraints on computable AI.
That's because this can never lead to self aware intelligences with understanding and purpose. It can't do so if computer programs are unable to understand truth. How can you have awareness and an objective, if you don't know what it is for something to be or not be, or to be true or not true?
CONSTRAINTS FOR PARTICULAR AREAS OF PROGRAMMING
Though we do need constraints in particular areas. For instance for self driving cars, there are obvious ethical issues there. Are they safe enough to be trusted in place of a human driver? For Fly-by-wire - we have already decided those are safe enough, in their role as essential assistant to a pilot. Those planes would fall out of the sky without their computers. They are now accepted as routine, with the Airbus A320 as the first airliner with an all digital fly by wire control system in 1984.
Airbus A320 family - first commercial airliner to depend on fly-by-wire, so dependent on the computer to stay in the air. By Julian Herzog, CC BY 4.0, File:Lufthansa Airbus A320-211 D-AIQT 01.jpg . At the time it was a daring decision, but now such systems are unremarkable. We have learnt that they are reliable and suitable for passenger jets.
For autonomous robotic soldiers - most would say that giving them the ability to kill humans they identify as "opponents" without human supervision would be a step too far at present. We need to be careful, on a case by case basis.
And computer programs can certainly out compete humans in specialized areas. So, the constraints needed depend on the area in which they are being used. Image recognition algorithms need to be monitored to make sure they don't mislabel images in ways that offend humans for instance as the recent case of google image tagging identifying black people as gorillas shows up.
Google Mistakenly Tags Black People as ‘Gorillas,’ Showing Limits of Algorithms
Google of course is a leading player in image recognition. It uses neural nets to tease out details from an image and identify features. When you put the results back into the neural net over and over again, you can reinforce this effect. See DeepDream
You can upload your own images to try them out here: Deep Dream - Online Generator
And this video starts with random noise and repeatedly applies Deep Dream to it:
Google Deep Dream Zoom "Inside an artificial brain"
Which shows both the power of weak AI, but also its fallibility. It is easy to use weak AI to draw out details from a scene that aren't there.
It's the same also with text based information searching. Watson who won jeopardy against human opponents. IBM Watson Wins Jeopardy, Humans Rally Back sometimes got the answers easily, for instance it is great on questions of geography. But sometimes says silly things.
'Watson' computer wins at 'Jeopardy'
That's also weak AI. There are many situations where we might need to be careful about using it. E.g. information mining has privacy concerns, and there's the real possibility that humans may come to rely on computer programs that make fallible conclusions in situations where a mistake has serious consequences.
But it's not true artificial intelligence in the sense of "Strong AI".
WHAT IF WE DO FIND A WAY TO CREATE TRUE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
If we ever do get to the point where true artificial intelligence is possible, then if it is a non computable problem, they won't be the outcome of programming more and more knowledge of the world into a computer program.
So, they don't start off with full human intelligence. Instead, they would be like helpless babies; they would need our help.
In that case, if they really were able to understand truth, I think that it is likely that they would be beings that suffer pain. Perhaps even physical pain. At a minimum they probably see the world visually, and have haptic feedback to touch it. With that much, they could come to interpret certain sensations as unwanted so painful.
If not that, mental distress seems likely. They see certain things to be true or false. They are likely to have goals that they create for themselves and can then see whether they are achieved or not.
This is different from just programming a robot to avoid things, which doesn't require any understanding of what is happening. That is easy to do with a couple of sensors and the simplest of programs - you have no suffering or joy there, surely.
But if the AI understands truth as humans do, then it is a being that understands its situation. So then they would be capable of experiencing genuine suffering, as a human does, and also joy. I don't know how to prove that this is inevitable, maybe it isn't, but it seems likely.
So that makes it a matter of ethics. They would need regulations to protect them from us.
And then in the other direction, whether they are ethical in the way they relate to us, or not, as for human babies, would depend on their upbringing. We'd learn from each other.
All ideas for an "off switch" or controlling the AI or putting restrictions on their programming would be impossible to do because they are not programmed.
And ethically, you couldn't raise an intelligent aware computer that is sandboxed off from the rest of the universe. Just as for humans, it would be the ultimate of cruelty. It would surely suffer greatly.
Another likely consequence is that since it has no program to copy, it's probably impossible to clone it. You could make a clone of me that is identical genetically, but we'd be like identical twins. We might have very different interests and understanding. We don't have any way to make a human that is identical to me, with same memories, same thought patterns etc, and there is no possibility of this on the horizon. It would be the same with a strong AI, I think.
THE IDEA THAT A FLEXIBLE ENOUGH PROGRAM IS BOUND TO HAVE TRUTH GLITCHES
So, to expand on this, first to summarize Roger Penrose's idea. He argues that computer programs will never understand mathematical truth. That however they are programmed then there will always be things that we as humans can see to be true, which they can't see.
It is obvious that whether a computer program's output is truthful or not depends on the programming. So for instance you can easily program a calculator to say that 2+2 = 5 or whatever it is you want it to say. Occasionally you get glitches in programming of calculators leading to them making mistakes - not as blatant as that but Windows Calculator has a long history of such glitches. For instance this is a fun glitch in the current version of Windows calculator
=
If we were computer programs, then you could get genetic effects that lead to some people honestly believing things like that. That 2 - sqrt(4) = 1.068281969439142e-19. They would swear blind that this is what 2-sqrt(4) is because they could see it for themselves, clear as day.
After all, we all since some people are lightning calculators, then it's something humans can do, we all potentially have that capability. But there must be disadvantages to that, or it would be selected for, and everyone would be able to do that. So why not have people who not just are slow at maths as we are, but who actually say and believe that 2 - sqrt(4) = 1.068281969439142e-19? There would be no evolutionary disadvantage at all, as you don't normally need to even work out sqrt(4) in ordinary life and death situations ,or any situation that early humans would encounter.
So that's the intuition behind it. But of course he gives a much more elaborate argument, using Godel's theorem.
Basically his argument is that if it has a program, then you can inspect that program and derive a statement you can see to be false which the program will declare to be true. It is just like this Windows calculator falsehood - but he says that any computer program versatile enough to do simple maths and to reason about what it is doing at a meta level, i.e. show "understanding" of maths, will always have truth glitches, only much more subtle than the Windows calculator example.
It doesn't even need to do intricate maths. If it is able to count, and add and multiply, and "understand" what it is doing like a human, then by his argument, it already inevitably has these truth glitches.
That's all I'll say about his central argument here, as it is not the main focus of this answer. I talk about it a lot more in my If A Program Can't Understand Truth - Ethics Of Artificial Intelligence Babies
WHAT ABOUT HUMANS THAT LIE OR BELIEVE THINGS THAT THEY CAN'T PROVE?
Of course humans often lie, or believe things on inadequate foundations. But they do so on a basis of an understanding of what truth is. If you don't understand what truth is, the most you can do is to say something nonsensical that betrays your lack of understanding of what truth is. You can't lie if you are unable to recognize truth.
When a chatbot says something mistaken, there is no-one there lying, or superstitious, because it doesn't know what truth is.
Also, whatever strange beliefs some people may have, our daily life is based on a foundation of many truths we understand implicitly. You know that you are inside a house (if you are), and that you are typing on a computer keyboard. That if you open a door you can go outside. That humans are small enough to get through a doorway. You know how far it is to the road, or to the post office, and how to get there.
A computer program could be programmed with all that knowledge too. But - if Penrose is right, it can never "know" these things in the way a human being can do.
For instance if a computer program has the nearest post office marked on its map and it says that you have to go out of the door and turn right to get to it, but actually you have to turn left - then it isn't lying. It is just a bug in its programming. Not unless you program it to lie - but in that case it is you, the programmer, that is doing the lying, not the program as such. At least if Penrose is right. Because if his conclusion is right, it is impossible for any computer program to understand truth or lies in the way a human can. So is not telling truth or lies, it is just doing whatever you programmed it to do.
The reason for focusing on maths as Penrose does is because there it is really clear cut what truth is. So then easier to spot if the program has no understanding of what truth really is.
A SIMPLER ARGUMENT
As well as Penrose's argument, there's a simpler one, not at all logically compelling but intuitive. The argument is that if you truly understand truth, but are programmable, a programmer could put a logic bomb in, so that on certain occasions you just spout nonsense.
E.g. someone could edit your source code so that every time you see a shooting star you say that 2 + 2 = 5 and for that period of time think it is truth.
Since a being that truly understands truth surely can't be reprogrammed in that way, then anything that can be programmed can't understand truth.
It's not logically conclusive at all. Those who think strong AI is possible can point to glitches in human thinking such as optical illusions, hallucinations, hypnotism, and so on. And can point out that neural nets can't be edited to say whatever you like in the same way as other computer programs, and say that deep learning makes computers behave much more like humans.
But I think it has some force to it. Gets you thinking about it a bit, through a much simpler argument than Roger Penrose's one. It may help you to begin to understand the point of view of some people (like myself) who think that programmable strong AI is impossible.
GÖDEL'S OWN TAKE ON IT
Gödel's argument is not particularly convincing - and he says as much himself, but it shows that he thought himself that probably human minds can't be reduced to a finite machine (i.e. Turing Machine).
He looked instead at diophantine problems - simultaneous polynomial equations in several unknowns with only integer solutions. His result showed that no finite system of axioms and deduction rules is sufficient to solve all diophantine equations. In this quote, by "absolutely unsolvable" he means - not solvable by any human being.
"So the following disjunctive conclusion is inevitable: Either mathematics is incompletable in this sense, that its evident axioms can never be comprised in a finite rule, that is to say, the human mind (even within the realm of pure mathematics) infinitely surpasses the powers of any finite machine, or else there exist absolutely unsolvable diophantine problems of the type specified"
He goes on to say that he finds the first of these two possibilities more plausible, that "the human mind (even within the realm of pure mathematics) infinitely surpasses the powers of any finite machine"
See"Some basic theorems on the foundations of mathematics and their implications" - lots of missing pages in the preview, sorry.
The main difference is that Roger Penrose took this a lot further, applied it to physics, and supplied what he considered to be a proof that human minds can't be reduced to a program, using ideas of Turing machines combined with Gödel's results.
Gödel died in 1978, so there is no way to know what he would make of Penrose's argument.
But it helps to show that Penrose's view that human intelligence can't be reduced to a computer is one that you can share, whether or not you accept his argument for it.
So anyway let's go on and see what some of the consequences are of this, if true.
SO PROGRAMS CAN ONLY HAVE A SIMULATED UNDERSTANDING OF TRUTH
If true, it means that no program can ever be programmed to truly understand truth.
They can be programmed to simulate an understanding, but in situations not tested for, they could easily then say things we see as just totally silly and obviously false. They always need human programmers to continually tweak their programs to deal with these truth glitches.
That's certainly true of all the programs written so far. For instance Deep Blue has no idea what a chess piece is. It's been designed to play a superb game of chess, but not to recognize chess sets, or to understand what a game is. Self driving cars don't know what a car is. Chatbots, give the impression that they understand what they are saying for a few seconds but soon trip themselves up.
Artificial intelligence proponents claim that with "deep learning" we can solve this.
But if Penrose is right, then their approach will never work. It will surely lead to computer programs that get things right over a wider and wider range of different circumstances, but never to a program that truly understands truth as we do.
SO WILL NEVER PASS FOR HUMAN
This means that computer programs will eventually trip up. But Penrose's argument doesn't tell you how long a computer program could continue to fool humans. His argument, if true, just shows that if you are an expert in logic, you'll be able to trip it up eventually, and what's more you'd need immensely complex logical statements to test it with. It's more of an "in principle" argument than a practical test, really, at present.
If you are convinced by it, then - you think somewhat like this: "Okay so a computer program will have one truth it can't see, its Godel sentence - so therefore it doesn't understand truth in the way humans do. So it's likely to show this lack of understanding in other ways too".
But a computer already can pass as human for a few sentences as the chatbots show.
So where you go next from there is a matter of judgement - how long can a robot pass as human for? How human-like can it be? After all even clockwork automata seemed human-like in the sixteenth century. A shop dummy can pass for human for a second or two until you spot that it hasn't moved and doesn't look quite human.
Turing wrote in his paper that by now we would already have computers that can pass as human for five minutes in text conversations with a 70% chance.
"I believe that in about fifty years' time it will be possible to programme computers, with a storage capacity of about 10⁹, to make them play the imitation game so well that an average interrogator will not have more than 70 percent chance of making the right identification after five minutes of questioning. The original question, "Can machines think?" I believe to be too meaningless to deserve discussion. Nevertheless I believe that at the end of the century the use of words and general educated opinion will have altered so much that one will be able to speak of machines thinking without expecting to be contradicted."
We are a long way from that - except in special situations with restricted topics, or where the chatbot "cheats" by pretending to be a human with limited understanding or language or conversation abilities.
However when asked about the unrestricted Turing Test, where you can ask anything, in a BBC interview on Radio 3 in 1952, Turing says:,
Newman:
"I would like to be there when your match between a man and a machine takes place, and perhaps to try my hand at making up some of the questions. But that would be a long time from now, if the machine is to stand any chance with no questions barred?"
Turing:
"Oh yes, at least 100 years, I should say."
I don't think myself that a computer program will ever pass the Turing Test if it is required to show human understanding in the test, for extended periods of time, maybe never even for five minutes, or at any rate, probably can't keep it up for an hour ever, with a human who is reasonably alert and aware of the possibility that it might not be human.
Of course it can pass by just being silent, if silence is permitted. Or by imitating a human with poor understanding of English. But those I see as a kind of a "cheat". It can pass by talking to a human that is absorbed in other thoughts and not paying much attention. Or a human that talks a lot and expects little by way of response than "yes", or "great" or whatever - you could write a chatbot that would do fine for minutes or hours for someone who talks like that :).
HOW THE BRAIN WORKS - REASONS FOR SUPPOSING IT IS FAR MORE COMPLEX THAN AI RESEARCHERS SUPPOSE, FROM THE BEHAVIOUR OF AMOEBAS
Another thing that may lead to the conclusion that artificial intelligence is far harder than most people think, is to look at how the brain works.
So, first, the idea of how the brain works used by many researchers in the field of strong AI is that the brain is made up of neurons which are each basically quite simple logical units. The idea then is that if we can build a neural net that resembles the brain it would approach artificial intelligence. Then more tweaking could get us to the goal.
That's a formidable end point to aim for because the brain has so many neurons with so many connections between them. But they think it is achievable, sometime in the future, perhaps a few decades from now when computer speeds and the amount of fast access memory in a computer have both increased immensely.
This is the idea of initiatives such as the Computing - Human Brain Project and the Blue Brain Project. They think that you could simulate the brain with of the order of a few hundred exabytes of rapid access memory (an exabyte is a million terabytes) and may be able to make this more practical using a lower resolution model (with rapid access memory of "just" a few hundred petabytes - a petabyte is a thousand terabytes), that works by accessing a higher resolution model in slower access memory from time to time. That then may seem quite achievable, as we moved from kilobytes to megabytes and then gigabytes of rapid access memory in a short timescale of a few decades.
Well there are reasons for supposing the brain is at least several orders of magnitude more complex than this approach suggests. Because - even an amoeba can make decisions and has a fair degree of basic intelligence. It can distinguish food, escape predators, seek out more habitable conditions etc.
If you modeled the behaviour of an amoeba with a neural net you would need thousands of neurons. But it doesn't have any.
So, surely our brain's neurons are more complex than just simple logical units? Otherwise a being with a single amoeba type cell for a brain would out compete another being with thousands of neurons as conventionally understood.
Of course I'm not saying that these big projects like the Human Brain Project and the Blue Brain Project are useless. We may learn a lot about the functioning of the human brain from them.
I agree that that these simplified neuron models are valuable and lead to insights into brains and computer vision. It's just the idea that it captures all of it. I think it only captures some of the things neurons do.
By the amoeba analogy, they may be dealing with a comparatively crude "macro layer" of how the brain functions.
So far, this idea that their model is missing some of the details of what goes on inside neurons just suggests that it may take an extra few decades to reach their goal if we keep increasing rapid memory capacities a thousand fold every couple of decades.
Maybe instead of exabytes we need zettabytes (a thousand exabytes) or perhaps more likely, yottabytes (a million exabytes). Instead of the 2040s, are we thinking of the 2080s?
If that was all there was to it, then it would still seem an achievable goal to eventually reach strong AI.
We don't seem to be close to reaching the limit of what's physically possible. Perhaps for 2D chips but once they start getting massively 3D there's a lot more play to go. For instance, we can in principle make a transistor from a single atom Single-atom transistor beats Moore's Law by eight years (Wired UK).
Avogrado's number is 10²³, and a yottabyte is only 10²⁴. So in principle you could have even a yottabyte of single atom transistors in a few grams of material.
With quantum computing maybe we can go even further with qubits.
The possibility of reaching yottabyte levels of rapid access memory seems not impossible, eventually.
IN ADDITION, IF THE ARGUMENT IS RIGHT, IT'S NON COMPUTABLE
But then, in addition to this, if Penrose is right, the brain has to be non computable in its processing, not capable to be reduced to any form of computer program at all.
Since we don't have analytical solutions even for the hydrogen atom, the brain has to be incapable of exact simulation in a computer program. The main question really is whether what has to be left out in the simulaton is essential to how it works. If what we do is non computable, then any simulation will always leave out things that are essential to how it works.
In this case the repercussions are far reaching. Not only are our brains not neural nets - they aren't anything that can be modeled digitally. No attempt at modeling reality in a computer, however accurate, can permit beings within that digital model of reality that are able to understand truth as we do.
His argument is about mathematical truth because truth in maths is far easier to tackle. But in intention it applies to all forms of truth, to any form of actually "knowing" something instead of saying it just because your programmer or evolution leads you to say it in particular circumstances.
So in that case then it doesn't rule out the possibility of artificial intelligences. But they would have to involve non computable processes.
WIDE RANGE OF COMPUTABLE PROCESSES
This also excludes quantum processes as usually understood. Because those, though they massively speed up conventional computing, are still computationally equivalent to turing machines. Anything you can do with a quantum computer as usually understood, you can do much more slowly with a conventional computer program. Quantum computing
It also rules out parallel processing as this is shown to be computationally equivalent to Turing computation too.
It also rules out hardware neural nets, or anything else that can be simulated in a computer program.
It also rules out programs that are programmed to modify themselves. This is still equivalent to Turing computability. You can make a turing machine interpreter to run the program as data and let it modify itself, and keep running this over and over, and the result analyzed computationally is just a turing machine with data like any other.
Use of a Random oracle - which gives genuinely random answers selected from a finite set to any question - does take you beyond Turing Computable however - you can show that a Turing machine can't simulate genuine randomness.
Indeed that's a good example of non computable physics which shows clearly that there are limitations to what you can do with a computer program. Though whether this is of any use for artificial intelligence is another matter, probably not.
So, how do humans have this capability to see for ourselves whether things are true or not?
SEARCHING FOR NON COMPUTABILITY IN PHYSICS AND NATURE
If Roger Penrose is right, the way forward towards understanding this, and developing artificial intelligences might be to search for non computable physics. And Roger Penrose has a suggestion - but it is just a suggestion so far. We shouldn't be too hung up on whether this is the correct solution as there may be other ways to do it. But it may give an idea of how it is at least possible that there is some form of non computable physics going on.
He thinks that in our brain the individual cells use cellular automata type processes in the microtubules. All cells have microtubules that are usually thought of as primarily used for structural material, like our bones, though much more flexible - for instance when amoeba move, they rapidly dissolve and regrow the microtubules along the leading edge.
But they have a cellular automata type surface layer to them.
He has figured out a way they could use this to do some form of computation - this diagram is supposed to show steps in such a computation.
So, these wouldn't just be the amoebas and other cells' "skeletons" - they would be their "brains" as well, in effect.
So far that is not going to take you beyond Turing machines. It just enables the neurons to be far more complex than normally understood, so permitting things such as amoeba intelligence and suggesting our brains are orders of magnitude more complex than most AI researchers believe.
But his next step introduces the non computability. He thinks that these are quantum processes and that you get quantum coherence in the brain - not just within the cell but spanning many cells. And eventually when the amount of mass involved in the coherent quantum state reaches the Planck mass - or about the mass of a hair in your eyebrow - that it then collapses due to gravitational effects. As his "day job" as it were, he is a theorist in the field of quantum gravity - so this is something he knows a lot about.
The idea of such large scale quantum processes seemed far fetched at first. Originally when I heard him talk in the 1980s, then he came close to being laughed at. Most physicists would say that quantum processes simply couldn't occur in the brain at all, because it is "too warm" or so they thought.
He came up with arguments to suggest that it is possible, but it didn't convince too many back then as there was no direct evidence back then.
More recently, with experiments starting in 2007, it is now clear that they do, in the form of quantum coherence, and quantum superposition of states exploited by biological processes. You’re powered by quantum mechanics. No, really… And more techy, Quantum physics provides startling insights into biological processes.
So then his idea is that this actually happens on a very large scale in our brains. And then the collapse is an example of a non computable phenomenon.
NON COMPUTABILITY IN A SIMPLE SYSTEM
You might get the impression from Penrose's argument that understanding of truth would come out of increasing complexity. Godel sentences piled on top of Godel sentences until it is almost infinitely complex.
But - though it requires infinite complexity to code it as a program, it need not be immensely complex if it involves non computable physics.
To show how you could have non computability with a simple physical system, though rather an ideal one, suppose you have a binary system of two planets orbiting their barycentre. Let's suppose they are featureless spheres, except that they have markings so that you can count the rotations. And this is an ideal system - no friction, nothing acting on them. Isolated from all external influences.
Now suppose that the ratio of the two spin rates is Chaitin's constant. Using that system, if you could observe it, you could solve the halting problem by just counting revolutions of the two wheels and using that to estimate Chaitin's constant to more and more accuracy.
That of course also proves that such a system could never be modeled in a computer program by Turing's proof of the impossibility of solving the Halting problem .
So a physical system of just two components can still embody non computable physics. It is basically a kind of physical "oracle". So, it is just to show possibility, not that a practical simple non computable system would actually resemble that in any way at all.
If it is true, as Penrose hypothesized, that the non computability arises as a result of an entangled Planck's mass of quantum coherent state collapsing due to gravitational interactions - well that would also be tremendously complex - it's only the mass of an eyelash, but that's more than 10²⁰ hydrogen atoms in mass .That's a lot of quantum coherence and entanglement.
That's just a hypothesis at present however. It could be some other form of non computable behaviour. Which could be either immensely complex or somewhat simpler - there is no way to deduce which it is at present.
To AI researchers, these may seem extraordinary claims. But seen from the other side of the fence, the claim that strong AI can be achieved by more and more complex programming also seems an extraordinary claim!
SO ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCES CAN'T BE PROGRAMMED TO BE ETHICAL - BUT WILL BE BORN BEWILDERED
However it works, this would then mean that artificial intelligences, if we ever create them, can never be programmed. So you can't protect against them by tweaking the programming. You don't program them to be ethical. But they would also surely be "born" bewildered. Indeed I think it would be an ethical issue whether it is right to create them at all if this is correct.
EASIEST WAY TO CREATE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE MAY BE TO TWEAK BIOLOGICAL INTELLIGENCE
It would then be similar to the question of whether we should create any intelligent aware creature, a hybrid of a human and a dolphin say, using gene sequences from humans to "enhance" dolphins, to make a dolphin have a human-like brain. Or perhaps even blue whales with their gigantic brains.
Or genetic enhancement of humans, attempts to tweak the genes that influence a human brain to make us super intelligent.
Or even just artificial breeding of dolphins, or humans with the aim to increase our or their intelligence.
Indeed, if Penrose is right, it might be that forever into the future, the easiest way to make artificial intelligences is to tweak biological inteligences in some such way as this.
Or to create new forms of artificial life - not in a computer program, but using artificially enhanced biological cells of some sort.
Or some form of quantum device, yes, but it involves somehow creating immense coherent quantum states involving enough matter to reach the mass of an eyebrow hair, by other methods, and somehow exploiting the spontaneous "self observation" collapse of that state. We are nowhere near being able to develop something like this at present however.
There already are AI researchers who try to build computers using real neurons instead of logical neurons. See Computer circuit built from brain cells. So this line of development also might lead to true artificial intelligence if Penrose is right.
Another line of development like this is the slime mould computer.
So this also could potentially lead to strong AI if Penrose is right.
ETHICAL ISSUES FOR TRUE NON COMPUTABLE AI
This line of development I think does need great care and has ethical implications of many types.
Both ways - we have a responsibility to those creatures we create, if we do create artificial intelligent life. And as I said in the intro they would be beings capable of pain and suffering, almost certainly.
And not in a form where we can "program out" the pain or add simple blocks to stop it, or just "switch it off". Because if this is right, they don't have computer programs and never can have such. And though surely they can be killed, they probably don't have a "state" that can be saved or copied, and can't just be "powered down" and then brought "back to life" when needed.
So it's an issue that can't be solved by programming. Much like a human - dolphin hybrid - if we get things wrong and they are experiencing intolerable suffering, we can't just power them down or attempt to program their brains so they don't suffer or to give them healthier ways of interacting with the world.
TRUE ARTIFICIAL LIFE IS AN EXISTENTIAL RISK - BUT FOR DIFFERENT REASONS
Artificial life however I think is an existential risk, not for reasons of artificial intelligence though. If we build artificial life, then this life just possibly could end up being better, in some way, than ordinary DNA based life.
This is not an academic thing any more. Scientists have made modified e-coli with heritable DNA with six bases instead of four (See First life with 'alien' DNA. See also the Unnatural base pairs (Wikipedia) ). I think most people would agree, we have to be careful about releasing artificial life like this in the wild. For this reason they take great care to make artificial life forms in such a way that they can't survive in the wild. The six bases life could only survive for as long as the scientists fed it with the artificial nucleotides it needed for its DNA. After they stopped doing that, it substituted ordinary nucleotides in its place.
There are many other base pairs, thousands of them, that could in principle be incorporated into DNA.
As well as that, xenobiologists have a possible roadmap that could lead to creation of a microbe that uses XNA instead of DNA for its genetic information. They can do it by using the cell's own machinery for most of the stages. Still keep RNA for transcription, and everything else, the proteins etc, are as before, but replace DNA and DNA polymerase by XNA and XNA polymerase. It's a formidable challenge but may be possible.
See the section on Kick starting XNA systems in Xenobiology: A new form of life as the ultimate biosafety tool
In the same way I think we have to be super careful about returning extraterrestrial microbes or any forms of life to Earth. For instance with a Mars sample return - I don't think that is safe to do unless it is thoroughly sterilized or we know exactly what is in it or are 100% certain whatever is inside can't possibly get out.
As an example, what if it is a form of life that is better at photosynthesis and has a more efficient metabolism than terrestrial green algae? It could take over from our green algae, and marine phytoplankton more generally - maybe slowly at first, but exponentially, and end up with a form of life that is prevalent in the oceans and yet, not edible to Earth life, indeed could easily be poisonous. Not through design or intent, just because it has a different biochemistry and produces chemicals that are similar enough to get misincorporated or disrupt terrestrial biology.
If future research into artificial intelligence follows similar lines, making artificial cells first and building up from there, or tweaking DNA, then I think that could be an existential risk. That we might create some form of self replicating cell to use as a substrate - and then that cell takes over from DNA - not through any intelligence or intent, just because it is a more efficient self replicator than DNA based life.
So I do think we need strong controls and oversight for the whole field of artificial life and creating cells based on novel and exotic biochemistry. Or nanoscale self replicators also, and any form of self replicating technology. A self replicator doesn't have to be intelligent to be a problem. Indeed that's the risk of unintelligent self replicators with programmed goals, such as in the "paperclip event horizon", where the only objective is to become more and more efficient at making paperclips. Their inability to change their own goals, or to "understand" what they are doing or be reasoned with, is part of the problem.
So then I'd see any restrictions on artificial intelligence as related to this restriction on artificial life. The problem is the self replicating rather than the intelligence.
If it is intelligent, at least it can be reasoned with, and there is a chance that it can develop similar ideas of ethics to ourselves, and it would understand what it is doing. and stop it, if it is problematical for us. So in some ways the less intelligent the self replicators, the more of a problem they may be.
THE NATURE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE BABIES
So strong AI perhaps has. artificial living cells that make up its body, chemical in structure, just like our cells. Or maybe it is some quantum computer with trillions of entangled qubits that are continually collapsing when they reach a Planck mass. Or some such.
Nobody can program it because it is non computable. So how does it develop any intelligence and purpose and so on?
Surely it starts off helpless as a child. So what happens next would depend on its upbringing. If brought up in an ethical way, then it would feel affinity to other rational beings. We would not want to be cruel to a machine intelligence baby, once we relate to it as another being, another person like us, but with unusual birth. In a similar way, it would feel affinity to us as rational creatures like itself.
So, as long as it is well brought up and not treated cruelly - it would be a relationship like a mother with a child. It would care for us because we are friends, and we care for it, and it likes us, and it learnt everything it knows, initially, from us.
And then it would recognize that we have the capacity for pain, and it knows what pain is in itself. Pain in the form of frustration at least and quite possibly also interpreting some of its sensations as painful also. Because it would have to sense the external world.
And it would surely understand joy also, and recognize it in us.
So it would have some form of empathy.
Even autistic people have empathy. They may find it hard to express it. They may also have difficulty actually recognizing feelings in others. They may not understand how others react to them. But they are still able to empathize with others. Do People With Autism Lack Empathy? One distinction is made between cognitive and affective empathy. People with autism lack "cognitive empathy" - the ability to infer what someone else is thinking or feeling. But their "affective empathy" is intact - the drive to respond with an appropriate emotion to someone else's emotional states. (Paraphrasing from Research Project: Empathy in autism).
I think that's something that any rational being will be able to do, to empathise.The only way to switch it off is to somehow block their awareness of other beings as entities.
That it's got some kind of a "mechanical substrate" is neither here nor there. It's sort of like encountering ETs. They might have radically different biology, but they would surely still be capable of empathy and understand such things as pain, joy, frustration etc.
But I think we are a long long way away from this. This is also so far future as to be science fiction at present.
While genetically engineered life, we could do right now if we were unethical like the Nazis but there would be an outcry, and rightly so. I don't think we will do that in the near future either.
RIGHTS AND RESPONSIBILITIES OF US TO THEM AND THEM TO US, LIKE ETS OR "DOLPHIN PEOPLE"
So - then we have responsibilities to them as much as they do to us. And they would of course have rights. Would have dolphin people rights and people with augmented human brain rights and beings with continually collapsing quantum states rights or whatever.
We are then as responsible to them as if we give birth. If you give birth to a child who excels at things you wish you could do, you'll be proud, not scared.
And - just as for giving birth to a biological child- well maybe we aren't ready yet to raise artificial intelligence creatures, and if so, well we just shouldn't do it. Maybe to do this now is like a six year old child wanting to have a baby to look after. They have no idea how much is involved in doing this.
Maybe it is something we can learn how to do from ETs if we get contact from them, or maybe it is something for a million years into the future.
We have laws against experimenting on fetuses, and genetic manipulation, so it would be like that, something that is just not permitted. And understanding the situation, probably few people would even want to try to break that law, just as few people now would want to do illegal genetic experiments on late term unborn human babies.
THREATS OF PROGRAMMABLE AI
I think there are two things here - first the self replicators. Like artificial living cells, they don't need to have much weak AI at all to be a threat, just the weakest of weak AI, whatever is needed to replicate.
This does need care, though we are a long way from achieving a programmable nanoscale mechanical self replicator. We are quite close to building a "Clanking replicator" with RepRap - RepRapWiki
Add to that the ability to actually print out computer chips - and we aren't so far from that also, very inefficient slow printed circuits made with a nanoscale 3D printer. Then we wouldn't be far away from a "clanking replicator". I can see that as a potential for maybe a few decades into the future.
But these are of less concern at least in near future because they are large, and relatively easy to control.
If this turns into nanoscale technology, it's an issue. Also, if we are able to make clanking replicators like this that head off into the galaxy to other stars, then they need careful control to make sure they can't evolve, perhaps eventually into nanoscale replicators or more capable robots of any size.
I think however that for galactic exploration, they are inherently much safer than human colonists. There is so much concern for robotic self replicators filling a galaxy - but unlike humans, programmable robots can be controlled, can have "off switches" and can be limited to a finite number of generations, say 10, and so on, all things biologically or ethically impossible for humans. I think myself that when you talk about colonizing a galaxy, the human self replicators are a much more serious and difficult issue than robotic self replicators. See my Self Replicating Robots - Safer For Galaxy (and Earth) Than Human Colonists - Is This Why ETs Didn't Colonize Earth?
Even closer to home, clanking replicators probably will need control of some sort, for instance an "off switch" so that you can stop all your replicators right away in case of any issue. If we get to this stage of technology, that would be a sensible precaution, along with limitations on number of generations.
And similar are controls needed for nanoscale replicators, as well as other precautions which we could develop as their capabilities become more apparent. But this is somewhat distant future at present.
Much nearer to the future, we are close to achieving artificial self replicating lifeforms with a totally alien biochemistry, and this I think needs a lot of care. The main requirement should be that it can't reproduce in the wild. Which can be ensured, for instance, by making it dependent on chemicals only available in the laboratory.
Then - there's the idea of a super intelligent program arising that can understand humans, how they think and invent new technologies. This I think is just pure science fiction and not something to worry about at all.
I think the idea of a strong AI that somehow arises from programming is no more likely than strong AI arising from clockwork automata in the sixteenth century, even though modern weak AI is far more complex.
The weak AIs will do more and more things that we have come to associate with humans. So, due to our tendency to anthropomorphize we will see them as human like when we first encounter the new behaviour, such as answering questions, playing games with us, walking like us, auto piloting planes, driving cars, speaking with human intonation, or translating text from other languages. But none of that takes them closer to strong AI than the flute playing of Jacques de Vaucanson's famous clockwork automaton of the sixteenth century
CONCLUSION
So I do think it needs care, but have identified different areas of risk from the ones usually suggested.
So then it is much like the problem of how to bring up your children to be good people. No simple solution, and hopefully as we mature as a civilization, if we ever do create AIs, we will treat them ethically and give them a decent upbringing and learn from each other.
I think however that we are a long way from doing this, actually deliberately creating new forms of strong AI other than ourselves.
Attempts to create super human intelligences through genetic manipulation of human or dolphin DNA would surely be treated as unethical and forbidden. In the same way we should not create true AIs and try to bring them to maturity, whatever their biology, or whether they are quantum machines, or slime mold computers or whatever they are until we know how to do it in a compassionate and ethical way. And then when we can do that, we have a decent chance that the AI itself will be compassionate and ethical also, like ourselves.
As for proving that our AI children will be safe, then whether they are uplifted dolphins, or gene manipulated humans, or artificial life built from the ground up, or whatever they are - well you can't. In the same way, you can't prove 100% that your child won't turn out to be a dictator, but people have children anyway. It's like that.
Why would strong AI children be less safe than biological children? Or have a less developed sense of ethics?
Indeed with increased intelligence and an ethical upbringing, they might well have stronger ethics than ourselves.
TL:DR SUMMARY
My main point here is that (in my view) first, it is not possible at all, this dystopian future of programmed artificial intelligences that are vastly cleverer than us. Computer programming and algorithms can never lead to true AI or true learning.
Instead, it may arise from genetic manipulation or artificial life or related developments. And then as it is not programmed or programmable, no more than we are, then the issues are similar to ones you have with genetic manipulation, e.g. of children, to have enhanced intelligence, or splicing human with dolphin DNA etc.
So then, it's an ethical issue both ways. We have responsibilities to artificial intelligence, and them to us.
And in that case I think it may well be unethical at our current state of knowledge because it could create a suffering being that we might even be unable to help relieve its suffering.
If so, it might be advisable to just not permit research into true AI of this form, just as we wouldn't permit splicing human DNA with dolphin, or chimp DNA, were it possible. Perhaps not a moratorium for all time, but until we understand the ethical implications much better and have a better idea how to raise such beings in a compassionate and ethical fashion. And that should apply even to the likes of slime mould computers if it ever gets to the point where it seems likely they can develop any form of understanding or awareness.
But that there is no need at all for any such moratorium on the projects based on developing computer programs, simulating the brain using neural nets and so forth.
My article on my science blog about the topic is here:
If A Program Can't Understand Truth - Ethics Of Artificial Intelligence Babies
Which I've also made into a kindle booklet
Ethics of Artificial Intelligence Babies eBook: Robert Walker: Amazon.co.uk: Kindle Store
On sample return
You might also like Peter Bentley's answer to What do AI researchers think about the Wait But Why article on AI? He is an expert on AI and digital biology who has written many books and papers on the subject. I got the Claude Shannon video from his answer.
"I've said it before and I'll say it again - building (and educating) intelligence takes *time*. Lots and lots of it. Yes, we will continue to invent some amazing new technologies in the coming years. Yes, in two decades our current technology will seem pathetic. But the technology inside your heads works at nanoscales. It's billions of years ahead of us. Anyone who really believes we're going to create human-level AI in the next few hundred years needs to learn some basic biology. I suggest working with a few neuroscientists for a while. Believe me - it's worth it.
"In the meantime, if you really want to make human level intelligence? Have kids, folks."
Just to add - that these are the Hohmann transfer orbits. There's also the possibility of ballistic capture. If you use that method, you can transfer to Mars at any time. And the total delta v invo...
(more)Just to add - that these are the Hohmann transfer orbits. There's also the possibility of ballistic capture. If you use that method, you can transfer to Mars at any time. And the total delta v involved is simlar to Hohmann transfer. It's a new idea, not yet used for any missions but may be used in the future, more work to be done on it.
Just depends - that's a long way into the future. Only a decade more than the time between the first proper bicycle (1863) and the first satellite (1957).
It all depends of course, on whether we con...
(more)Just depends - that's a long way into the future. Only a decade more than the time between the first proper bicycle (1863) and the first satellite (1957).
It all depends of course, on whether we continue with space exploration as we are doing now. Seems no sign of it slowing down yet anyway, indeed more of a boom.
If so, I could see humans setting foot directly on the Moon, Mercury, Phobos and Deimos, any of the asteroids, Callisto - outermost of the Jovian moons, relatively accessible, and - if we manage closed system spacecraft - no reason why they can't go further afield, even set foot on Pluto. I think at least a couple of decades to sort out all the issues about finding ways for humans to survive for years on end in space without resupply from Earth. But 2100 is well beyond that.
I can see them occupying floating habitats in the Venus upper atmosphere above the clouds. And it would be possible to send a human to the surface of Venus briefly in a refrigerated spacecraft, are ideas for doing it even now. Even to remain there for some time using heat pumps to pump the heat out of their habitat to keep it cool. Whether anyone would bother and want to take that risk I don't know.
I think it is possible also that they are living in free floating Stanford Torus type habitats which then could be situated anywhere in the solar system. Especially in the inner solar system where there is plenty of sunlight.
But if you say 2100 - well I think there's a fair chance we might have fusion power by then and perhaps microfusion plants just meters across. If so then humans would become independent of the sun and could set up habitats anywhere even in the distant Oort cloud comets.
I don't think they would necessarily set foot on Mars by then. Depends what we find there. But if we find native present day Mars life, then for instance Chris McKay has argued we should leave Mars to the Martians even if they are just microbes, and I think there is good reason for that myself also as you'll see from my other answers. Especially if we find life there based on a totally different, non DNA based biochemistry - or for instance, early RNA based life vulnerable to our more recent DNA life or some such. It could be of such interest, easily, that we decide collectively that it has to be protected from Earth life.
But we may well have robots exploring it and humans also exploring it from orbit via telepresence, so good by then surely that it would feel very much as if you are actually there, but with heightened senses.
Same for Europa. By then hopefully we have developed 100% sterilization capabilities for our rovers and telebots and would be able to explore the Europa oceans without any risk of introducing Earth life. If we are very lucky, perhaps we find higher lifeforms there, or even intelligent lifeforms like ourselves (but without technology).
I think there's a decent chance that even by 2050 we have the ability to send a hundred tons or more into orbit around Earth at low cost, perhaps even flying directly into orbit much as we fly to another continent, and be able to get to Mars or Venus in weeks from Earth, instead of months.
We could have sent our first interstellar robotic probes by then also, may even have had a signal back if they are reasonably fast - at a tenth of the speed of light, a probe could get to the nearest star Proxima Centauri in 42.4 years
All of this I think has upsides but also downsides. We would have to be much more peaceful than we are now, to have many people in space, especially if it gets into say the hundreds of thousands because they'd have access to technology more powerful than our present day ICBMs.
And I think by then we may well have found signals from extra terrestrials living around distant stars or other galaxies. If so hopefully they will educate us about some of the hazards to watch out for as we develop further technologically.
I think that if we have easy portable fusion power we'd also have the capability to mount interstellar expeditions, even just by hopping from one comet to another in the Oort cloud until eventually we get to the point where it makes sense to colonize comets that orbit other stars. Not that we'd get there so soon, but that we'd see the possibility of endless outwards expansion.
But if so, then it would be something that requires great care and may be that we decide it is far safer to send robots instead. For details, see Self Replicating Robots - Safer For Galaxy (and Earth) Than Human Colonists - Is This Why ETs Didn't Colonize Earth?
By then also surely we have mapped out every single asteroid of any size in the entire solar system. Probsably right out to Pluto. Leaving no chance at all of an unexpected asteroid impact.
It wouldn't be that hard to do with a small advance in technology. We are already in the situation where without much by way of funding compared to nuclear weapons and spy satellites we could map all the NEOs down to 20 meters or so.
And surely would have stopped climate change by then. Our population would already have leveled off or even be declining world wide, according to the middle of the range predictions. And generally I'm optimistic there.
So we wouldn't be in space because of pressure from an over populated world. And with our knowledge of every single asteroid in the solar system, it would be easy to defend Earth against them even if there was a big 10 km diameter one headed our way in the 22nd century (one in a million chance).
So - either we sort ourselves out, or we don't. If we do, which I'm optimistic we will do, it could easily be a quite bright future by then. Though only the first steps of a very young civilization. I see no reason why we can't continue as we are as a species, a technological species, for millions of years. Over timescales of tens or hundreds of millions of years, we'd probably evolve to new creatures.
So I have an optimistic view of the future myself :). Hopefully we can reach some future like this. Though what I just described will surely feel hopelessly dated even maybe a couple of decades from now -that's the almost inevitable case for all future predictions especially involving technology. Still, is fun to speculate.
Summary - This is just exceptionally unlikely. Theoretically it is possible but as far as worrying about it, forget about it.
The chances of getting closer than Neptune in any one million year period are
Summary - This is just exceptionally unlikely. Theoretically it is possible but as far as worrying about it, forget about it.
The chances of getting closer than Neptune in any one million year period are
The chances of getting as close as Earth, hitting Earth or hitting the Sun are vanishingly small. .
IN DETAIL - BROAD PICTURE
There are several hundred million neutron stars in the galaxy as a rough estimate (see Compact Objects in Astrophysics) . Most of them would be very old and cold, due to supernova explosions billions of years ago and an old cold neutron star would be very hard to detect, that's true. You might think that with so many of them, that we’d have a chance that one of them would hit us. But the galaxy is also very huge, as worked out by Phil Plait The volume of the Milky Way, our galaxy, is roughly 8 trillion cubic light years
HOW MANY OF THEM ARE THERE WITHIN TWELVE LIGHT YEARS?
With the volume of the galaxy 8 trillion cubic light years, the calculations are simplified if we look at a volume of 8 thousand cubic light years, i.e. in a sphere of radius twelve light years.
So those several hundred million neutron stars correspond to about ten neutron stars within twelve light years. By comparison our galaxy has 400 billion stars (you get various estimates here, some say 100 billion, I’m going by the higher estimate) which makes it around 200 normal stars in that same 8,000 cubic light years. T
So in short we have
within that twelve light years radius.
Stars are from several hundred to a thousand times more common than neutron stars. That might surprise you given that many stars have short lifetimes and of those many end in neutron stars - so what has happened to all those stars that reached the end of their lifetime billions of years ago?
The thing is that those bright stars are far outnumbered by the numerous fainter stars. Most stars are red dwarfs with trillions of years long lifetimes - Red Dwarfs: The fascinating stars that live for trillions of years ).
SO HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT A STAR DOES A FLYBY?
Stars, even though they are much more common, are also very unlikely to do close passes of the solar system. Never mind hitting the Earth, or the sun, they are extremely unlikely to get as close as Pluto. The closest flyby of a star in recent past is Scholtz's star, which passed 0.8 light years (around 9.6 light months) away 70,000 years ago. https://www.sciencedaily.com/rel...
By comparison Pluto is 5.5 light hours away. So - when a very rare close encounter may take a star 9-10 light months away - how likely is it that a star would pass as close as 5.5. light hours away? With neutron stars a thousand times less common than stars, how likely that a neutron star would come anywhere near our solar system?
To get close enough to pass between Earth and the Moon it would need to pass just one light second away. To hit Earth it would need to hit us accurately to the nearest 0.02 light seconds - within two hundredths of a light second. The sun’s diameter is 4.64 light seconds, so to hit the Sun it would need to get within a few light seconds of it.
I think you can see that all these things are so unlikely it will surely never happen.
IMPOSSIBILITY OF CAPTURE
And it is just a single pass, because if any rogue planet, or neutron star, or black hole or anything were to pass through our solar system - it would be going too fast to do anything except just fly out again.
Capture into solar system orbit by Jupiter - tracing the path of Voyager 2 or Voyager 1 backwards - is so very improbable you can forget about it. It is easy for a solar system to eject a planet, and very hard for it to capture one. That’s a bit like the way it is easy for a cup to break but very hard for a cup to spontaneously assemble from the broken pieces on the floor.
Another analogy - it would be theoretically possible to drop a pin on a hard polished floor and for it to land point down balanced exactly. And if all the tiny drafts of air pushed in the right way to keep it balanced, it could stay balanced like that for an hour or more. It's possible but surely even with the thousands of pins dropped on polished floors, it's surely never happened in the history of humanity!
EXACT CALCULATION OF THE CHANCES
So now, what is the chance that Earth or the Sun is hit by any of these, or that they come into our solar system?
I’ve found a way to do an exact calculation
There's a formula, we can use here, from Perturbation of the Oort Cloud by Close Stellar Approaches. Our sun has approximately 4.2*D^2 encounters with other stars every million years.
There D is the diameter in parsecs of the spherical region around the star.
Neptune's semi major axis is 4.49506 billion kilometers so it's diameter is around 0.00029135 parsecs. So substituting that for D, every million years there is 1 chance in 2.8 million (calculated as 1/(4.2*0.0002913^2)) of a star passing closer to the sun than Neptune.
So then back to our neutron stars, then there is less than one of those to every 20 normal stars, so that makes it one chance in 48 million of a neutron star passing closer to the sun than Neptune in a million years.
So to summarize, chances of getting closer than Neptune are
These are almost vanishingly small chances already.
Now for the chance of a star hitting the Earth. Now D is 12,742 km, which is 4.129401e-10 parsecs. So now the calculation is one in 1/(4.2*(4.129401e-10)^2).
So the chance of a star hitting Earth in the next million years is about 1 in 1.3962931 * 10^18. Or about 1 in 1,400,000,000,000,000,000
We can also look at the chance of a star hitting the Sun. Now D is 1.3914 million km, or 4.5092203 × 10^-8 Parsecs 1/(4.2*(4.5092203e-8)^2) makes it 1 chance in 117,000,000,000,000.
So to summarize, every million years there is a
So about one chance in 117,000 billion of it happening every million years. With 400 billion stars in the galaxy, we get one chance in 117,000/400 or about one chance in 300 that we get a collision between two stars somewhere in the galaxy every million years. With the galaxy 13.21 billion years old, then it may have happened 13,210/300 times or about 44 times since the galaxy formed, that one star has hit another star.
For neutron stars, divide by 20, so we might have had a couple of collisions of neutron stars with another star.
So we have the figures for anywhere in our galaxy since it formed:
Those are averages though. The stars are much more densely packed in the center of the galaxy, so stellar collisions there should be more common. The galaxy also has a giant black hole in its core, and stars must collide with it quite often. I’ve also assumed that there is not enough gas or dust to cause significant drag on the approaching object. That’s true for our sun but not true for newly born stars or stars that hit the accretion disk of a black hole.
However, we orbit far from the galactic center, and are at no risk of collision, no more risk than Earth is at risk hitting the sun, because we orbit the galactic center in a long term stable orbit.
In the universe as a whole, there are so many stars that such collisions are common. Collisions of a neutron star with a black hole cause some of the enigmatic gamma ray bursts - the shorter ones.
Artist’s impression of a neutron star captured by a black hole. In a Flash NASA Helps Solve 35-year-old Cosmic Mystery
This is of no danger to Earth whatsoever
Yes, a thousand of them indeed. The asteroid belt, and Near Earth Asteroids. I don't mean living on them like the little prince:
That's not very practical without an atmosphere.
No...
(more)Yes, a thousand of them indeed. The asteroid belt, and Near Earth Asteroids. I don't mean living on them like the little prince:
That's not very practical without an atmosphere.
Nor living inside them as some suggest.
But rather, using materials from the asteroid belt and first, from the close Near Earth Asteroids, to build large habitats following the Stanford Torus design and others.
Fly through of the Stanford Torus design. There are many other suggested ways of making habitats in space. This was one of the first.
There's enough material there for a thousand times the total land area of Earth - complete with space to build buildings on top, forests etc.. It's quite surprising.
That's the calculation that lead to the Stanford Torus designs and the ideas of O'Neil colonies an so forth. in the 1970s. This is by far the largest habitable area in the inner solar system inside of Jupiter.
CONFLICT FREE
And - there is no conflict with anyone else there. There may well be asteroids we want to preserve. Ceres and Vesta for instance. But there are so many asteroids, and many of them are probably of little interest. Some may even be on a far future collision course with the Earth or some other planet when you start mining them for materials to build your habitat. Or even in the near future. So by building your habitats you may simultaneously be preventing a future collision with Earth.
Also, for most of them, there is no problem of planetary protection, either, with no chance of harm to Earth or Mars or anywhere else, if you choose carefully. You need to take care with some of the larger asteroids such as Ceres, with a remote chance of life there, perhaps a subsurface ocean, even possibly cryovolcanism. There it's a case of exploring it first.
And your habitat will be much easier to build in some ways. If you want to move things around in space - you just need to apply delta v once to start it moving, then again when you want to stop it. There's no need to truck anything over long distances.
Once the skeleton of your habitat is up and ready to be set spinning, you then have the choice of building the rest of it in whatever level of gravity you spin it up to, or in zero g, as you prefer.
You have sunlight available 24/7 and can design it to any climate you like, such as the tropics, or a cooler climate if you prefer.
And you can build it close to Earth, the first ones, making trade and resupply much easier.
IS THERE A FUTURE IN SPACE COLONIZATION?
I don't actually think myself that there is a huge future in space colonization done for its own sake, in the near future. Because however well these habitats work out, they can never be as easy to build as a habitat on Earth even in the worst places to live here such as the Arctic, Siberia, the middle of the Sahara desert, or even a Cloud Nine city floating high in the atmosphere. There are many much more hospitable places on Earth to colonize. All of those would be much simpler engineering challenges than any kind of space settlement anywhere, it seems to me, and far easier to maintain.
But for those who think there is a future in space colonization, I'd have thought that space habitats using materials from the asteroid belt were the best bet, far better than Mars.
The Moon could be another alternative because it is so close to Earth and has natural caves useful for shelter. It also has the peaks of eternal light at the poles, ideal for solar power and growing crops, and next to them, ice deposits in the craters of eternal night, amongst the coldest places in the inner solar system - also ideal places to build passively cooled infrared telescopes.
I can see settlements like that working. Larger and larger eventually maybe into the thousands and the tens of thousands even of Stanford Torus habitats - so long as there is some reason for them being there. Such as space mining, tourism, exploration, scientific study, or solar power for Earth.
You can easily have an expensive hard to build settlement if it is supported by the Earth with, perhaps a million to one ratio between the people on Earth supporting it, and the number of people living in the habitat. So this could be possible long before it becomes possible to make them self sustaining, if that can be done at all. So long as you can find some reason for Earth to support you.
For more about all this including other designs for space habitats along similar lines, see also my Asteroid Resources Could Create Space Habs For Trillions; Land Area Of A Thousand Earths
ANOTHER - AND SURPRISING - SUGGESTION, VENUS CLOUD COLONIES
Then another place where humans could live, potentially, is in the cloud tops of Venus. It's a bit of a surprising habitat, but it has many advantages over Mars. Though I think it rather highlights how difficult it is to live elsewhere than the ease of living in the Venus cloud tops. It's a lot easier than Mars I think, but not nearly as easy as anywhere on Earth.
But it does have many advantages for early colonies - except - that I can't think of any particularly reason for being there, except to study Venus, and that can probably be done almost as easily from orbit around Venus or Earth at this stage. If you wanted to do close up study of the Venus clouds, however, it could be a good place for a settlement.
It would surely be far easier to build a Buckminster Fuller type Cloud Nine colony here in the Earth atmosphere than a Venus cloud colony, because the Earth air is breathable. This is a one kilometer diameter spherical city, made like a Buckminster Fuller tensegrity sphere, and so far stronger than you'd expect from its size and low weight, yet very light. It could withstand everything the weather throws at it. And at that size, just the few degrees increase in temperature of a city over its surroundings , which happens anyway,would be enough to keep it floating in the air.
With a one kilometer diameter city, with thousands of people and their possessions, you can work out that a one degree increase in temperature over its surroundings would be enough. It would float like a hot air balloon, open to the atmosphere, but trapping enough heat to keep it afloat.
Project for Floating Cloud Structures (Cloud Nine), by Fuller and Shoji Sadao 1962. In practice they would probably be tethered to the ground with cables.
Venusian cloud cities are similar - except that the Earth's atmosphere is naturally buoyant on Venus with no need to heat it up even by one degree to stay buoyant, and no mountains you could collide with.
In the case of Venus they can be much smaller and still viable, because in the denser CO2 atmosphere, nitrogen and oxygen are lifting gases, with about half the lifting power of Helium in our atmosphere.
So you get big spacious and lightweight habitats, constructed much like an airship on Earth. And it just so happens that the cloud tops of Venus are at exactly the right temperature and pressure for humans. And just above the clouds, perhaps going in and out of them, you actually have direct sunlight. Yet you are protected from cosmic radiation and solar storms by the thickness of the Venus atmosphere above you, which equivalent, as on Earth, to ten meters thickness of water.
And at that level the entire atmosphere rotates around Venus once every four days, a bit like our jet streams. As with a hot air balloon, since you are carried with the wind, you wouldn't experience it as a wind. The air would be calm around you.
So you have a reasonable day length too. Probably plants could do with artificial lighting at night simulating more of a 24 hour cycle. You would have to see how it worked out. And unlike Mars, there are no global dust storms which shut out most of the light of the sun for weeks on end every two years.
The main disadvantage compared to a space habitat is the sulfuric acid in the clouds. But that's also an asset too as a source for sulfur and water, both useful to life. There's almost everything needed for life in the atmosphere, nitrogen also, carbon obviously and oxygen from the CO2. Only trace elements are lacking. And at full Earth pressure, the air around the habitat doesn't needed to be extracted from a near vacuum as on Mars.
And we know how to protect from sulfuric acid, even concentrated sulfuric acid, in acid manufacturing facilities. It's much easier and lower tech to make an acid resistant covering for your habitat and acid resistant suits for working out of doors than it is to engineer a pressurized habitat and spacesuits to hold in Earth pressure atmosphere against a vacuum, at ten tons per square meter outwards pressure.
ADVANTAGES OF THE VENUS UPPER ATMOSPHERE
First, it's the most pleasant place for humans to live outside of Earth. It depends, if you suffer from agoraphobia you may prefer living in tunnels, and the idea of wide vistas over the cloudscapes and spacious light filled habitats may not appeal to you. If so, you may prefer living in a Lunar cave. I've talked about this idea to some who think that way. But many like to live in spacious light filled habitats with wide vistas.
It is very different from the surface of Venus - which is extremely hot, at a high pressure, and there is no way humans could survive there without massive help from technology. But at the cloud tops - then it is just the right temperature and pressure for us. Just the sulfuric acid to protect against, and need for air to breath when out of doors. If you breached your acid resistant suit - well you've got a lot better chance of survival than if you damage your spacesuit which is the only thing that keeps out the vacuum in other situations.
The biggest advantages are the ultra lightweight construction, as there is equal pressure inside and out. Even with tears in the fabric, the air would not rush out or the Venus atmosphere rush in, because the pressure is the same inside and out.
Then, it's a big advantage to be able to work outside the habitat with just acid resistant suits and air supply, without the pressure differences that make spacesuits so awkward to use. Also there's a much low level of technology required to maintain habitats or even build new ones.
You could literally build space habitats out of wood and plastics as the main construction materials, as they are easily strong enough. You could use plants grown mainly using materials sourced from the atmosphere itself. There is nowhere else in space where habitats would be so lightweight and so easy to build and maintain and support so many people for so little effort (comparatively). Though of course, it is not nearly as easy as on Earth.
The Russians were first to promote this in the 1970s. And though it is rarely discussed, it is still a viable option I think. At least as viable as Mars.
It's also much lower tech than Mars. If we can make self sustaining habitats producing their own oxygen, using plants only, the rest is very low tech. And the way the photosynthesis calculations work, if they are able to grow their own food, then they automatically also produce more than enough oxygen for humans to breath. Of course that's the big question for space habitats, but it's the same for anywhere in space. See Could Astronauts In The ISS Get All Their Oxygen & Food From Algae & Plants?
There's also less by way of planetary protection issues.
Though there may be some issues as there is a perhaps a remote possibility of life in the Venus clouds, which would survive due to the 30 days it takes for particles to fall through the habitable region of the clouds. The idea there is that an updraft would bring microbes back to the cloud tops to repeat the cycle.
If there is life, it surely didn't evolve there, but originated on the surface when Venus was more habitable in the early solar system. There isn't much to go on yet, but we know that there are particles that are non spherical in the clouds, just the right size to be microbes. (Droplets of rain, fog, etc are usually spherical).
If there is life there, we would have to be careful just as we are with artificial lifeforms made in the laboratory, and should be with any life with possibly non terrestrial biology.
On forward and back contamination issues for Venus
BUT WHY WOULD ANYONE WANT TO LIVE IN THESE PLACES LONG TERM?
As with humans on Mars it's a bit difficult to think of a reason why people would want to live in any of these places long term, lunar caves, Venus cloud colonies, or large free flying space habitats, if the idea is just to colonize them, with no other motive for being there.
Why anyone would set up home in such a difficult place with such challenges when they could much more easily set up even a floating city in the Earth's atmosphere? Or indeed, even easier, a sea city.
To make it as exact an analogy as possible, I'm talking here about a self sustaining floating sea city that grows all its own food, not supported by fishing or anything like that. It takes nothing from the sea except the water, salts, metals mined from sea water, and uses the atmosphere for oxygen to breath (so saving a lot on the complexity of a space habitat), and also takes nitrogen, carbon etc from the atmosphere. And vents waste gases such as the methane and hydrogen sulfide that build up in a human habitat.
If you can build a self sufficient space habitat, anywhere in space, you can most certainly build a self sufficient sea city housing far more people for much less cost.
The Seasteading Institute | Opening humanity's next frontier
That would be something that has minimal impact on the Earth, sustainable, and with much less mass than space habitats (because no shielding is needed from cosmic radiation, and no need to engineer it to hold in the atmosphere, at ten tons per square meter pressure, against the vacuum of space).
And there's no need to launch dozens of rockets to build it. It's surely a more ecofriendly solution at least in the near term.
Never mind simpler projects such as a Seawater greenhouse in the deserts. Those are even simpler. Pipes in salt water from the sea, then the hot desert sun evaporates it, leaving salt as a valuable byproduct and provides water to irrigate the desert. And it does that without depleting water tables; indeed adds to them. Reverses desertification. Many of the world's deserts are close to the sea, and would be ideal sites for this.
By Raffa be - Own work, CC BY 3.0,SG phase II
There's a fullscale working seawater greenhouse in Australia. And there are ideas for using them on a much larger scale to reverse desertification, bring water to deserts, and grow food in deserts.
Seawater Greenhouse | About us
So, I find it a little hard to see space colonies working as a way of colonization. Not as an affordable way to feed and house people, at least.
I don't see it being done as a backup myself either, because the idea just doesn't work too well if you examine it closely.
There is no natural disaster anyone has suggested that would make Earth anything like as uninhabitable as any of these places I've mentioned, even the Venus cloud tops.
The only disaster that comes close is impact by a giant meteorite - but we can see from the cratering record, that there has been no impacts large enough to make humans extinct, in the inner solar system for well over 3 billion years. There are no recent craters that big on Mars, Mercury, our Moon, moons of Mars, or what we have of the history of Venus' surface since its most recent global volcanic resurfacing.
And models give the likely explanation - that we are protected from asteroids and comets from the outer solar system by Jupiter. Large comets get either broken by tidal effects, hit Jupiter, ejected from solar system or hit the sun, and have to do repeated flybys of Jupiter to get into an orbit in the same plane and able to hit Earth. And the larger asteroids in the asteroid belt are in orbits that are stable on the hundreds of millions of years timescale.
Many humans would survive a CP boundary type impact - the dinosaurs went extinct, but turtles, crocodiles and alligators, birds, the dawn sequoia tree, small mammals all survived. Delicate frogs in a tropical amazonian rainforest would go extinct. Many species would. But humans can survive anywhere from the tropics to the Arctic with just the most basic of technology - so some of us certainly would survive a giant asteroid impact.
So unless we do it deliberately; and someone deflects a big asteroid from the asteroid belt to hit Earth, we are not going to go extinct from asteroids. Indeed space colonies, if done hastily sending millions into space, could end up with conflict in space or with the Earth, which might lead to the very events they are trying to prevent. After all humans haven't changed, and however idealistic the first colonists are, eventually you'd get the same range of opinions and attitudes, and the same tendencies towards aggression and warfare as you get on Earth.
And what's more we can also detect asteroids - detect them many decades in advance with modest levels of funding compared with colonization attempts.
With half a billion dollars gets you a space telescope to find most of even the smaller asteroids within less than a decade. You can't do much space colonization with half a billion dollars.
You can also deflect them easily given a long enough lead time. You only need centimeters per second or delta v to move an asteroid by the radius of the Earth after a decade. Then, once we have most of them mapped out, it's likely to do at least one flyby of Earth first. If so, the delta v needed may be so small you have to measure it in microns per second, in order to miss a few hundred meters diameter keyhole a decade into the future.
Why not put all this effort into that project instead of trying to escape Earth, if you are worried about asteroids?
So - rather than attempt to build a backup in space, for a disaster that can never happen, and with Earth as the best place to be to survive and rebuild - we need to use our space resources to protect the Earth. To find those asteroids decades in advance which then makes it easy to deflect them.
See: Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
and: Why We Can't "Backup Earth" On Mars, The Moon, Or Anywhere Else In Our Solar System
UNTIL SUCH MEGAPROJECTS GET SO EASY THAT WE BUILD CLOUD CITIES ON EARTH...
Nobody has yet built that cloud nine city. We know how to do it and have the technology to do it, and I dare say some people would enjoy living in a cloud city - but we don't have a sufficient reason to do it.
It's like that with most of the space colonization ideas.
A Stanford Torus for instance or a giant space city dome, is technically feasible - but like Buckminster Fuller's cloud cities (which he never suggested as a thing we should actually do) - it can be a little hard to see why one would want to build them.
So, until building mega structures is so easy for us that we have floating cities in our own skies, I doubt if we will have large habitats in either the Venus atmosphere, or on Mars or in Mars orbit, or in outer space either - at last not just as places to live.
But if there is some other reason to be in these places, such as space mining, or science research settlements or whatever, then this may be how it is done.
REASON FOR BEING IN SPACE IN FAIRLY LARGE NUMBERS, OF THE ORDER OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE
And there again I think the asteroids and the Moon score over the other habitat ideas. Because though we don't have the technology quite yet, we may in near future reach the point where it actually makes economic sense to have some people living there.
The Stanford Torus design assumed only 1970s technology, so technologically it's probably well feasible for us if we had the funding. Of course there may well be many issues to solve which they didn't answer, not least, whether it is really possible to set up a closed system habitat that large, or a mainly closed system. Also it's bound to need to be modified through actual experience of the engineering challenges on the job, and how easy it is to maintain etc.
But we'd need a reason for them to be there. For the Stanford Torus in the 1970s, the reason was to build solar power satellites which they projected would have paid back its cost already by now several times by sale of low price solar power to the world.
It shows the kind of reason you need. But this needs to be rethought for a new generation.
ADVANTAGES OF MINING IN SPACE
There are some ideas for mining that would work only in zero g and mining asteroids. For one thing it is easier to transport the materials as we saw, just need to apply delta v, let go, and it will reach the destination eventually so long as it is on a suitable trajectory.
With a spinning asteroid you can also use an attached tether to convert that spin into delta v to send your exports back to Earth. It's like the idea of the space elevator - but much easier for an asteroid than for the Earth. It's also possible for the Moon too - though it spins much more slowly than the Earth, the gravity is also less making a tether practical with current engineering though something of a mega engineering project. But it is easiest of all for asteroids. See Extraterrestrial space elevators
Then, the unique thing about asteroids is that some of them contain 100% pure metal.
It's mostly iron and nickel, also with a fair amount of the rarer platinum, gold, silver, etc. Platinum especially is much more abundant in iron rich meteorites than on Earth. And there's a manufacturing process we could use in space that is not possible on Earth because these metals are in such pure form, not as oxides or any such.
The idea is to use carbon monoxide to convert them to metal carbonyls. Nickel particularly can be converted to Nickel Carbonyl, a gas, at 50 to 60 °C. It's the Mond process except you can miss out the first step of heating Nickel with Syngas to 200 °C because it is already the pure metal.
This suggests enclosing the asteroid in a bag, transparent and heated by the sun, and filling it with carbon monoxide. The result would be Nickel Carbonyl gas. This leaves all the impurities and other metals behind - and also - means you don't need to do any mechanical mining of the asteroid, which is a big bonus in space. Then to extract the nickel you have to heat it to 220–250 °C - this can be done using a 3D printer attached to the bag so you actually get printed nickel parts as a result of the process, if you so desire.
Other metals could then be extracted from what remains of the asteroid using the same process at higher temperatures.
This approach has been suggested several times in the literature.
Then to get the metals back to Earth you can use Ballutes - self inflating parachute / balloon hybrids, low weight, so ideal for an application like this. For more about that idea, see Profitably Exploiting Near-Earth Object Resources
Or, a more recent idea, use this new inflatable heat shield called HIAD developed by NASA which may be available soon. It's already been tested and found to survive re-entry from space.
HIDA - Inflatable heat shield being developed by NASA to make it easier to land large payloads on Mars and on the Earth
Artist impression of it is used for an Earth re-entry. Images from this news story from NASA. For the 2012 test, which was successful, used for an actual re-entry from space, see Nasa's inflatable heat shield survives toughest test yet
Lightweight heat shields like this, together with use of ice from asteroids for fuel could be used to supply materials from asteroids to Earth.
NEED FOR AN ECONOMIC REASON TO BE THERE
Now whether this is actually going to be economic in space I don't know. But if it did work it's an example of something that might make it worthwhile to have humans in space in fairly large numbers. Though on the other hand it might just mean lots of telerobots and semi-autonomous robots operated from the ground.
The original Stanford Torus design was based on the assumption that ten thousand people would need to be in space to build solar power satellites to beam energy back to Earth.
With modern ideas for doing this, you'd use thin film mirrors, rather like solar sails, to focus the solar power, and maybe use high efficiency solar panels or solar furnaces to convert to electricity which you then beam back to Earth safely using phased arrays of microwaves.
It still seems practical enough so that there's a fair bit of research done into it; however, I'm not sure if this would need thousands of people in space any more.
The other thing is that you could supply water and ice and split water into hydrogen and oxygen as fuel and supply it to other spacecraft and habitats, research settlements, tourists etc. Again I can see this being a reason to have a few hundred people in space, not sure if it needs thousands of them, and we will have to see how it develops.
But that's what you'd need, some economic reason for them being there. And also some reason why humans are better than robots or telerobots doing the same job in space, or else you'll get a competitor doing the same job with them instead..
And though that's hard to see anywhere in space right now, again, it seems most likely to start with Near Earth asteroids or on the Moon.
Otherwise, who could afford a home in space, apart from the very wealthy, buying a house in space much as they would buy a luxury cruiser or a private jet? And of course tourist resorts / hotels - and surely settlements for scientific research as we have in Antarctica.
I can see all of those happening. But as for colonization - why would anyone choose to build a home in space where it is so much more expensive to live than on Earth?
That is, until building big megastructures is so easy for us that we have cities floating on the sea, large Buckminster fuller domes in the sky - and then maybe space settlements in space as well.
For that to work they would need to be not only reasonably easy to build - but also reasonably maintenance free. If you have to rebuild your space habitat every few decades like MIR, or the ISS, then it's not very practical as a place to live. If it can continue for a thousand years with hardly any maintenance with a not too excessive startup cost - well - it could be very affordable. Whether that ever happens, we aren't there quite yet.
But I can see settlements in orbit or on the Moon. Including this rather charming idea of an ESA settlement on the Moon which they are quite keen on at present. It looks almost as if the clangers are about to step out :).
ESA idea of a lunar village on the Moon.
See also my: Human Spaceflight At "Coastline Hugging Phase" - Lunar Villages Not Interplanetary Voyages - Op. Ed.
Also, my new article: Case For Moon - Open Ended Positive Future For Humans Based On Planetary Protection - Executive Summary
I don't think this is going to happen, not in the near future, because of planetary protection issues. If he has a way of dealing with those issues, he hasn't shared it yet.
But I can answer general...
(more)I don't think this is going to happen, not in the near future, because of planetary protection issues. If he has a way of dealing with those issues, he hasn't shared it yet.
But I can answer generally - is the same on the Moon or anywhere. No there are no property rights in space.
Even for space mining - you don't get a "stake" on your mine. So far there is no legislation at all to protect space mining. The US bill recently passed just says the US government will stand by their citizens if they mine in space. But it says that it is subject to its obligations by international treaty.
And the US can't claim territory in space either, or support anyone else in territory claims in space, by the OST. I'm not sure the bill actually says anything at all of any substance. It is also a bill that was passed under US constitution using principles that can't be applied in other jurisdictions so doesn't really seem a basis for international law either. Maybe the similar attempt in Luxembourg will be clearer, if it comes to anything because that wouldn't use the US constitution which is rather problematical as a basis for international law.
At any rate it really needs to be an international treaty and so far the only one we have is the OST. And then also the Moon treaty which though it has not been ratified by many countries, still has enough support to count as international law and is the only other treaty we have to help clarify the OST so far, until more treaties are passed.
Anyway property rights are just not possible at all in space, not for celestial bodies. There may however be a possibility of safety zones. The ISS has a safety zone around it - so as long as you live there you have some kind of a safety zone where you are in control of any approaching spaceships. And future law may also establish some kind of a functional right, e.g. to a mine, to keep mining it.
Apart from that, the only thing we have at present is that you own your habitats.
But the habitats may well be the most valuable thing you have. Most places in space are so inhospitable, it really hardly makes any difference whether you own it or not. It's like owning a piece of the Antarctic ice sheet - indeed that would be much more valuable than many places in space.
But habitats - they are very valuable. If you set up a greenhouse on the Moon say - or a telerobotically operated greenhouse using hydroponics on Mars (that much may be consistent with planetary protection if it is done carefully so as not to introduce Earth microbes to Mars) - well the greenhouse is the thing you want to own, not the rocky landscape outside it, lifeless, useless for anything that humans need.
So - those are already yours under the Outer Space Treaty.
The only thing is there is one rather awkward feature. If you leave a habitat on the Moon say, go back to Earth for a holiday - well according to the Outer Space Treaty - other parties can return it to Earth so long as they give it back to you. So if that clause was taken literally - you might find that someone else removes it helpfully, returns it to Earth and gives it to you - deposits it outside your home in Florida or whatever - where it is not much use to you. So - but surely common sense will prevail there. And hopefully in the future additional law can be added to clarify the situation.
I'm sure that in the future there will be much more legislation about this. But that's the situation as present. And it is very difficult to get countries to sign in space legislation. So it's not likely that we will repeal the Outer Space Treaty - the only space law that is passed by all the space faring countries, and ones with space aspirations, even North Korea - with the one exception of Syria which has signed it but not yet ratified it. And most of the non space faring countries have signed it also.
That's a major achievement. So as we move forward we need to work within it.
As I said, it's not nearly so much a drawback as you might think at first, given the harsh nature of space and the value of habitats in space. And the plus side is that nobody needs to worry that the Russians or Chinese or Indians or Japanese or the Americans or Europeans or anyone else will turn around and tell everyone else that they have claimed the Moon or some other celestial body for themselves. That's prohibited in the OST and I think it is good that it is and best it stays that way. It helps with peaceful exploration of space. Before the OST was signed, right up until it was signed, the US had secret plans to build a military base on the Moon which they would man and use to defend the Moon against the Russians.
It may not have been very practical, and it's possible, maybe even probable that they would have never built that base quite as described - but without the treaty then that background suggests that the US would surely have claimed the Moon for themselves when they landed, and it would have lead to a very different future as space history played itself out in that alternative timeline.
I'm glad we are in the timeline where the OST was signed!
There are different ways of interpreting the Buddhist monk's vows. Buddha left a long list of vows to take, but he said some are major vows and some are minor vows and nobody knows which are which,...
(more)There are different ways of interpreting the Buddhist monk's vows. Buddha left a long list of vows to take, but he said some are major vows and some are minor vows and nobody knows which are which, because Ananda forgot to ask him. At least so the tradition goes. The idea is you have to keep to the major vows, but the minor ones are more discretionary.
Since we don't know which are which, then some Buddhists, mainly Therevadhan, think the safest course is to keep them all, or as many as you can, as best you can. while others - mainly the Mahayana traditions, think that out of compassion to others you should keep only the main ones - while keeping to the other ones when it is easy to do so.
Another complication - there are different levels of vows. A young child for instance in Tibetan Buddhism at least may wear monks or nuns robes - but obviously before puberty then it doesn't even make sense to take the full set of vows, even of a novice monk. They are wearing the robes as an indication that they currently want to follow that path in later life.
Then you start as a novice monk or nun, with few vows to take. And the tradition of the full nuns vows was lost in most parts of the world. There is a movement towards reviving it from a few rare traditions that kept it. But many nuns have only taken the novice vows in Buddhist traditions for this reason -= that the full nuns vows have been lost in their tradition. The vows are transmitted from one to another and they think, in a chain of transmission going all the way back to the Buddha. And nobody else has the authority to make up new monks or nuns vows - at least according the vows in the vinaya tradition, so once lost from a tradition, there is no way to recover it again except by getting a transmission of the vows from another tradition.
Then there are many kinds of nun's and monks vows. In the zen tradition nuns can even be married, because it's a mahayana ordination and celibacy is not thought of as essential to the monks or nuns way of life in Japanese Zen Buddhism. They have a tradition of married ordained priests there.
You also get the "vows for a day" - that you can take on the monks or nuns vows, but a very limited set of them, for a single day.
So, you have no idea what vows she has taken. Or how she interprets them either, and what tradition, what the advice was given to her by the preceptor and those who she gets teachings from and so on.
Certainly many monks and nuns in Buddhist traditions do handle money and buy things in shops. There is a rule that they shouldn't do that if they have taken full ordination - but many traditions treat that as one of the minor rules that are optional.
Celibacy is obviously central, except in the traditions like Zen Buddhism with married monks and nuns, and not killing a human being, and several other ones. But on other vows like not handling money, and not eating after noon, then some keep them strictly, and others not at all.
As for whether it is deplorable of you - really - nobody cares probably. I expect she is used to getting people judging her for this, that and whatnot else., and unless you say something, how could she even know?
The most important thing in disciplining oneself in the Buddhist traditions is to restrain your conduct. Stop things such as killing people - not a problem for most of us - telling the most harmful lies, acts of extreme aggression, also to restrain from taking drugs that severely cloud your judgement (because they could lead to any of those other actions), sexual misconduct (which depends on the society you are in whether and what counts as sexual misconduct - it depends on the expectations of others in your society and whether your actions are hurting them) and stealing things from others.
That gives you the space to find some stability, to open out to others and respond to them and to learn and follow your path.
And yes, some mental discipline and mindfulness is worthwhile also. Especially if you tend to get very angry, and then go out of control through anger, then there's probably a need to do something about that. Or lying, if you are a habitual liar and can't stop yourself from saying really harmful things to others.
But things like this, whether some thought passes through your mind that may or may not be harmful, and you aren't even sure if it is - they aren't the things we really need to pay close attention to. They will probably just sort themselves out as you develop a healthier attitude to your life. At least if following the Buddhist path.
And indeed if you are meditating too - then depending how you are taught, but generally the idea is that if such thoughts arise, you just let them arise, and let them pass away.
You don't try to stamp them out - that just leads to more turbulence in your mind. Rather - interested, but not carried away by them either. A good teacher will help by telling you how to relate to thoughts like that as they arise in meditation. I won't try to say in detail because I'm not a Buddhist teacher :).
But - it's an interesting experience when you get thoughts like this. Tells you a bit about how people think, others also not just yourself. It's a valuable thing to understand such things and recognize that you do this. Without getting heavy and feeling you have to stamp it out - just see that this happens. And then it may well just sort itself out, if it is an issue at all.
Yes. The US is responsible for making sure they comply with the Outer Space Treaty. The most tricky thing for them is to comply with the requirement to protect Mars and Earth from harmful contamina...
(more)Yes. The US is responsible for making sure they comply with the Outer Space Treaty. The most tricky thing for them is to comply with the requirement to protect Mars and Earth from harmful contamination. The requirements for mechanical rovers are formidable - you have to sterilize any lander on Mars to the point where there are at most 500,000 viable spores over the entire spacecraft.
Given that a typical human has ten trillion microbes on our skin. in our stomachs and so forth and we can't be sterilized - and then you've got the food, water, air etc as well - then that's obviously way beyond any possibility for a human occupied spacecraft - especially since it has to be safe in case of a hard landing on Mars.
I can't see any way forward through this myself. I think when the time comes, there is just no way the international COSPAR committee can approve changing the requirements to permit a human landing unless they decide that we no longer need to protect Mars from Earth life which seems unlikely.
There are ideas for landing humans in an area of Mars without any possibility for life there - i.e. without water ice, somewhere in the very dry equatorial regions and far from any potential habitat like the RSLs. But then - what if it crashes and lands somewhere else? Everyone agrees that the first human landings, if we send humans there, would be risky, at least a percentage chance at some level of a hard landing.
How can that be made consistent with planetary protection with present day technology? Especially bearing in mind that Mars is a connected system with dust storms every two years that reach global proportions, cover the entire planet - that can spread any spores anywhere over the planet after a crash on Mars.
The image on the left shows Mars as it is normally. The one on the right shows it after a global dust storm which happens every two years, potential for a global dust storm anyway. The Perfect Dust Storm Strikes Mars
And dust devils
The Fact and Fiction of Martian Dust Storms
How can you suppose that dead astronauts and their belongings, scattered over the surface of Mars after a crash, won't be a contamination risk for the entire planet?
I don't know. Nobody has yet explained anyway how it can be done safely. These ideas date back from some years back when they thought the surface of Mars was pretty much sterile and any life would be beneath the surface. With that idea of Mars - I still think it was somewhat dubious - after all why are we sterilizing our rovers if there is not a risk of introducing Earth life to Mars? But now since Phoenix in 2008 and many other discoveries since then, it seems increasingly - not exactly likely - but certainly possible that Mars has habitats for life right on its surface, and if so a human landing has to be a contamination risk.
And the one thing we don't want to do is to go to Mars searching for life just to find life that we brought there ourselves. So I don't think myself, that when it comes to the crunch, that the international group of exobiologists and such like who would be responsible for signing off on a human mission to Mars, put their reputation on the line and say that it is going to be safe for the search for life to send humans on Mars - I don't see how they could possibly do that. They will surely just say that more research is needed as they have done in all the workshops on this topic to date.
There are many other things that they would have to comply with such as safety of launch etc. But this is the biggy I think, as it could easily be a complete show stopper.
It's not as if Mars is particularly habitable anyway. Antarctica is far more habitable than Mars. There are many places on Earth we don't colonize.
See also Why We Can't "Backup Earth" On Mars, The Moon, Or Anywhere Else In Our Solar System
Ten Reasons NOT To Live On Mars - Great Place To Explore
And my favoured expedition to Mars if we do send humans there
I am not actually convinced yet that SpaceX will be able to make human rated spacecraft. They have already shown that they can send unmanned cargo to the ISS. But one of those missions was a disaster destroying all the contents, and that was because of a quality control issue, using an inferior part in the spacecraft.
I know that a human occupied spacecraft would have survived that particular crash as they didn't include the extra safety systems a human rated craft would have. But the reason for the failure is a concern - do they have sufficient quality control for a human rated spacecraft?
Of course it lead to an immediate review of their quality control - but it shouldn't have happened in the first place. Is there anything else like that which could come up in the future and cause issuees? There was a review after the first Space Shuttle accident, but still there was a second one.
And there's a long history of problems with human spacecraft on the space shuttle - showing it is not an easy thing to achieve the 100% safety record required for human crew. It's a major challenge, and I am not yet convinced they are up to it, case of "watch this spot".
Don't say this because I want them to fail - but they have plenty of people saying they are sure they will succeed, so one person injecting a bit of healthy skepticism is surely not going to derail their efforts. I think they have already proved themselves for unmanned cargo but yet to prove themselves for humans. I have the same concerns about Richard Branson's Virgin Galactica. I think it is just too risky at present, surely much more risky than base jumping. The problem is that unlike an aircraft, they can't afford to do hundreds of test flights before they send humans into space. So in effect, when you go into space on one of those missions you are still in the early test flight phase of a totally new design of spacecraft. That's why it is so dangerous I think, potentially, as we saw with the space shuttle. Not that they are doing anything wrong or that they are not taking all the precautions they possibly can, and not that it is inherently more dangerous than, say, a car. It's just that it is so expensive to fly, that you can't possibly have adequate test flights to be anything like as confident as you are for a car or an airplane.
Even the Soyuz has had far less test flights than a car or plane would have. I'd see that as the safest way to get into space at present, seems very robust with many safety systems - but not as safe as driving in a car or flying in a plane.
I'm not sure if the celebrities booking their flights with Virgin Galactica quite appreciate that. So - it's not that I have a thing against SpaceX :). I think he is doing pretty amazing things. It's rather that I think what they have taken on is maybe bigger than anyone can do easily. Which means that even with the best care you can manage, it can still go wrong easily and it is a long way between where they are now and having a very reliable spacecraft reliable enough so you are sure it is okay for humans.
The way he is doing it is good, testing in unmanned flights means he can do many more test flights than he could otherwise - and his cargo vessel is even pressurized and temperature controlled as would be needed for a human flight. But even then it will be many unmanned flights before he has got as far as, say, a hundred test flights of the system. Will it be adequately tested by the time he needs to send humans into space?
And his idea for re-using the first stage - that will reduce the cost - but it also is the thing that lead to the Space Shuttle's demise - that they kept re-using it and it turned out that it wasn't quite up to the task, twice over, for different reasons. So will his re-used rocket first stages fair better than that? Fine for unmanned flights but not so sure about manned flights, again something that has to be proved and I think it will take a while to prove it adequately.
So I've got many questions there, general questions. Will see what happens.
We know and track many asteroids similar in size to the Russian meteorite.So it depends on its orbit. If you look at the upcoming close approaches table, there are many around 20 meters or so, the...
(more)We know and track many asteroids similar in size to the Russian meteorite.So it depends on its orbit. If you look at the upcoming close approaches table, there are many around 20 meters or so, the size of the Russian meteorite.
If it has done flybys of Earth before and been spotted when it did it, we might know of it decades in advance. If it is a new one, that's never come close to Earth, then we'd normally know of it a few days in advance depending what direction it comes from.
But the Russian meteorite came from the direction of the sun and in that direction we have a blindspot for the very small asteroids. Even up to 1 kilometer, it would be hard to detect if coming from that direction, we'd have some warning, a week or so if I remember right, but not a lot. And there are 10% of the population of 1 kilometer asteroids still to be found though we expect to find 90% of those remaining ones by the 2020s - are currently discovering one of them every month.
We already know all the ten kilometer asteroids out to Jupiter's orbit - and our telescopes are sensitive enough to spot them well beyond Jupiter actually at that size, and none of them are headed for us. So a 10 kilometer asteroid will be detected at least six months before encounter - and given that an asteroid / comet from beyond Jupiter is likely to do flybys first, then we'd probably have decades of warning. Anyway those are very unlikely, 1 chance in 10 million that any come this way in the next century.
It would be fairly easy to fix this. The Sentinel telescope designed by the B612 foundation costs $450. Less than half the amount that Bloomberg would spend on his presidential campaign if he decides to run. A two hundredth of the amount the UK plans to spend on renewing the Trident submarines.
Almost any country except the very poorest, and any billionaire could afford to pay for this telescope. It would orbit between Venus and Earth and look outwards, detect even small asteroids down to 20 meter diameter in the infrared. It would find most of the small asteroids within 6.5 years.
It wouldn't find all of the 20 meter asteroids. But it would make a good dent on it. And find most of the more dangerous larger asteroids.
As for what we could do if we could use that $100 billion the UK plans to spend on Trident for asteroid detection, goodness knows, probably be able to detect them all. Trident is of course capable of firing its nuclear weapons into space on its way to its target, like an ICBM so it is a space technology of a sort.
I think an ET looking at Earth would be astonished at our priorities - that we spend so much effort and space technology on weapons, also spy satellites, huge telescopes as big as Hubble but all pointed towards Earth - probably much more expensive thanthe B623 idea - focused at ourselves (rival countries but ETs would see them all as just us) as the threat, meanwhile pretty much ignoring asteroids as if they don't exist, although we know they do.
There is a major effort amongst astronomers with the Pan-STARRS telescope in Hawaii particularly looking at a large area of the sky several times a minute and doing a complete sky survey of the area of sky visible to it at the time every month or so. But we could do so much more, though major for astronomy, it's a tiny amount compared to the amount we spend on spy satellites and weapons of mass destruction all aimed at ourselves.
For more on this see my Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
Unlikely. First, CO2 is actually poisonous to humans unless it is less than 1% of the atmosphere. So no way you could survive in a CO2 atmosphere with just an oxygen mask. They would need a closed ...
(more)Unlikely. First, CO2 is actually poisonous to humans unless it is less than 1% of the atmosphere. So no way you could survive in a CO2 atmosphere with just an oxygen mask. They would need a closed system like divers use supplying air with both oxygen and nitrogen. The open system used by Everest climbers or jet fighter pilots wouldn't work, they would die of CO2 poisoning.
As for the amount of CO2 on Mars, so far we know of enough to about double its atmospheric pressure to 2%. That's not nearly enough. What's more, there is an equilibrium at 1% with Mars at its current inclination and orbit. So if you increase it to 2% it will soon fall back to 1% again as 2% is an out of equilibrium state - unless you keep it out of equilibrium for instance with giant orbital mirrors or greenhouse gases.
There's a runaway reaction at 10% but there might not be enough CO2 present to raise it to 10%. Indeed if there is that much CO2 there, why has it not gone into that runaway greenhouse effect naturally in the past at times when its atmosphere gets thicker?
Used to be thought there might be plenty of CO2, but now the pendulum seems to be swinging in the other direction, probably there isn't that much CO2 left on Mars.
Chris Mckay has suggested we should transform Mars into a Mars like climate instead like the one it had in early Mars, especially if we find Mars life there.
But even then - if we can't get it above that 10% level, there is probably not enough CO2 there to do that either. Except by having greenhouse gas factories running continuously, which would be enormously challenging and expensive.
Chris McKay describing his idea briefly back in 2004. Lots of more extensive treatments of it if you search. Giving Mars Back its Heartbeat - Astrobiology Magazine
My vote would be for leaving Mars as it is. We are a young species and have millions of years in the future to transform Mars when we may be wiser and at least know more about exoplanets. So have plenty of time to do it. And if we can't survive that long, we have no business taking on the responsibility of starting life on a new world seems to me. As we'd need to be around for at least thousands of years and probably millions of years to see it through to the stage where it is stable and has a decent long term future, during which time a lot could go wrong.
To set a planet on its way towards terraforming and abandoning it after a few decades or a century or two, to my mind is like setting a baby adrift on an ocean - you know it will be fine for the first few meters but once it gets out of sight you have no idea, depends on some stranger finding it and rescuing it.
I think it is useful to think about ideas for terraforming. Doing that can help us understand the Earth and exoplanets. But after all it's a case of trying to speed up a process that took billions of years on Earth. Maybe it can be sped up to just a few thousand years, but I think we need to know a huge amount more than we do at present before we can say that with any confidence at all.
See also my Trouble with Terraforming Mars
Why Nukes Can't Terraform Mars - Pack Less Punch Than A Comet Collision
Our Ethical Responsibilities To Baby Terraformed Worlds - Like Parents
Actually this could happen. Hard to say the probability, - and not a planet but a moon. Jupiter's moon Europa has a liquid water ocean which is thought to be rich in oxygen - produced by the radiat...
(more)Actually this could happen. Hard to say the probability, - and not a planet but a moon. Jupiter's moon Europa has a liquid water ocean which is thought to be rich in oxygen - produced by the radiation from Jupiter splitting the surface water ice into hydrogen and oxygen and the oxygen then makes its way down many kilometers into the ocean.
It's currently thought to be the most likely place to find complex life - perhaps as complex as squids. Their best guess is, not as much biomass probably as Earth, but roughly similar to the populations of the the hydrothermal vents in the ocean floors of Earth's ocean.
So, it could have complex life, such as perhaps squids. But if that's possible, is it not also possible that over billions of years, it could also produce intelligent life like us?
Here, their civilization is pretty much bound to be at least millions of years old, maybe billions of years old. It would be such a remarkable coincidence as to be almost impossible that they develop technology at exactly the same time as us. So if they don't have technology it is for fundamental reasons such as living in an ocean, or not having hands, or some such. I think the scenario you get in science fiction of extra terrestrials in e.g. early stone age or whatever level of technology is pretty much impossible.
So then, if there was intelligent life there, as close as Europa, we wouldn't be able to communicate with them yet.
Living in an ocean, even if they are very clever and also have hands - or tentacles - still - there is no access to fire, at least not easily (maybe occasional under water eruptions). They might well not develop technology at all, even in a billion years old civilization. At least not much more than, maybe, building dwellings of some sort and tools that to us would be primitive but the most complex things they can make in their environment.
And what we must do, surely, is to take great care. Not to introduce Earth life to start with, because that could make them extinct - it would be like releasing a genetically engineered totally artificial lifeform into the wild on Earth. Not safe, not unless you thoroughly understand what you are doing - and even then you'd doubtless get a lot of debate and some people who are not sure if the scientists involved have thought through everything and do totally understand what they are doing.
What we could learn from them could be of tremendous value. It's what I like to call a "super positive" outcome. Something so positive that even if there is only a tiny chance of it happening, it's worth going to a lot of care to give the best chance of it to happen.
Any form of alien life would be of tremendous interest, to learn about a biochemistry different from our own.
But imagine actually meeting an ET that's been living for billions of years within the Europa ocean?
And - we do learn from our past mistakes. Slowly, but we do learn. For instance after making the dodo and the passenger pigeon extinct, we now do try to preserve species - a couple of centuries ago then nobody would even think about trying to preserve anything. Now many people try hard and put in a lot of effort to preserve species.
Back a couple of centuries ago, slavery was considered to be acceptable and normal in parts of the US, until 1865. Now it is totally unacceptable. Apartheid was considered normal in South Africa until the 1990s.
So we do learn and move on and things change. If you lived in South Africa in the 1970s, say, you might think that Apartheid was never going to end. But it did eventually.
We have also developed standards of human rights that weren't present in say the nineteenth century - there are many violations - but still, many places that do uphold those standards. And that we call them violations rather than accept them as normal is a big step forward.
Also, equality of women - in many countries, not all of course.
Our times are still very inadequate in many ways - so much still to do. But if you look back, even as little as just a century or two back - we have also come a long way. So we can change, and do change, and will continue to change. What will the situation be, say, two centuries from now?
So - when you look back at the way that native peoples have been treated in the past - we don't have to behave in the same way in the future. Again there is much to be done there but at least we've established the principle that native people do have rights, and there are places where those rights are protected, though other places where they are not.
Hopefully we have moved forward a fair bit more in the future. Indeed I think that unless we become much more peaceful as a civilization than we are now - competition, healthy competition in sports, science, etc - but managed to find a way to a future without warfare and exploitation - at least in space - unless we can achieve that, I don't see how we can have large numbers of people in space.
Because the technology available in space by then would be too powerful to be used in any way except peacefully. If there are millions of people in space, that means millions of people with easy access to spacecraft able to travel at kilometers per second, probably more capable than any ICBM, living in habitats that by comparison are fragile as a soap bubble. For this to work, they must be peaceful, however that is achieved. Well that's what I think anyway.
As for the near future, then they are protected by our planetary protection policy, which prohibits contaminating other places that are possible habitats with Earth life. Which we apply for reasons of protecting our own science interests - it would be a huge anticlimax to go to Europa or anywhere else and only find the life we brought there ourselves. So for that reason alone then we need to prevent introduction of Earth life. But some who write on this subject say we also have a duty to protect lifeforms on other planets for themselves, over and above this obvious reason of protecting them because of their scientific value to us. You could also say we need to protect them for their science value to future humans thousands of years from now.
But for intelligent lifeforms, or complex lifeforms that could evolve intelligence, or that have lives of their own, you could also say that they have rights themselves of one sort or another. After all if an advanced alien were to contact Earth - would we not say that we have intrinsic rights in that encounter over and above our value as beings of scientific interest to them?
So surely the other way around, alien lifeforms also can have rights too. We may some day draw up some guidelines of rights of extraterrestrial species similar to our human rights.
For more about ideas of what we could find in the oceans of Europa and Enceladus see my
The ESA is developing Radioisotope thermoelectric generator based on Americium 241. It's got a half-life of 432 years so it could power a probe that lasts for centuries.
It's not just the power supp...
(more)The ESA is developing Radioisotope thermoelectric generator based on Americium 241. It's got a half-life of 432 years so it could power a probe that lasts for centuries.
It's not just the power supply though, also the thrusters for maneuvers. As an example, Cassini is nearing the end of its lifetime, and that's mainly because it's run out of fuel for maneuvers.
There, use of ion thrusters as for the Dawn mission to Ceres could help as they use very little fuel. And use gyroscopes for orientation to point towards Earth.
If you mean also - how far away can it go and still keep in touch - well there it could use thin film mirrors to create a large telescope to use to communicate back to Earth. Or a fleet of smaller nanoprobes working together. There are ideas for ways that probes could communicate back to us from another star by that method.
Project Icarus (interstellar) is a project to design a probe that can get to another star within a century and communicate back to Earth. So the engineers involved in that project think it's feasible to build a probe that will last for a century and communicate with us from several light years away. We couldn't do that right now with off the shelf technology, nowhere near. But they think it is something we could do potentially in the future.
ADVANTAGES OF AMERICIUM 241 FOR LONG DURATION MISSIONS
Plutonium 238 is what is usually used. This is nothing to do with the Plutonium 235 used for nuclear weapons. Often isotopes of elements have very different properties. Instead Plutonium 238 is so radioactive it is actually hot. And doesn't enter into chain reactions like Plutonium 235. It has no value for nuclear weapons at all.
It has a higher power density than Americium 241, so for short duration missions, you need four times as much or the Americium 241, because it produces 0.1 watts per gram compared to 0.4 watts per gram. Though it does this with five times the half life (approx).
Still for many centuries long missions, Americium 241 is better than Plutonium 238 with its half-life of 87.1 years.
If you had the same mass of Plutonium 238, you'd have four times as much power initially, but after 87.1 years it is down to double the original power of the Am-241, after 174.2 years it is down to the same as the original power of the Am241, and after 261.3 years it is down to half the original power output of the Am 241. By the time the Americium 241 is down to half of its initial power, the Plutonium 238 has gone through five half-lives so is now down to an eighth of the initial power output of the Am241.
Or to put it another way if you did want something that lasts for 432 years with a particular design power level at the end of that time period, you'd need four times as much of the plutonium 238 to achieve this as the Americium 241.
If you only need it to last a century or two, you need less of the Plutonium 238.
The situation is also improved because Americium 241 is purer than the Plutonium 238, isotope purity 99%. The ESA would be better off using Plutonium 238 but I think it is political reasons + availablity - that they have plenty of Americium from processing plutonium. And it has the side effect that their missions will last much longer with little reduction in the power levels.
Anyway in this context, then if you want to last as long as possible, and you use RTGs then Americium is the way to go.
You could also look into other approaches. But an Amerecium based RTG would seem to do just fine so we have one solution already.
In Buddhism, the idea is quite simple. We see that in this life people are born in many different circumstances. Some suffer a lot. And animals also - some of those also suffer a lot. And our bodie...
(more)In Buddhism, the idea is quite simple. We see that in this life people are born in many different circumstances. Some suffer a lot. And animals also - some of those also suffer a lot. And our bodies are very vulnerable to being harmed. Then also have the idea that there are many different forms of life not known to us directly. In terms of modern science these might be lifeforms on other worlds. But they might also be lifeforms that have lives with different laws of physics.
Traditionally Buddhism began in India with the background belief that there are many other forms of life with bodies made of light for instance. And also realms of pure thought, where you may just experience peace, or bliss, no body, no world around you, just a mental state, for billions of years.
So if you have the idea that there could be as much variety in forms of life as that - it's also possible to have realms where the beings there are capable of experiencing suffering not just like humans, but more than we can even imagine. Humans can't stand much pain - extreme levels for us - screaming etc - but if you experience too much pain you just faint.
So the hell realms in Buddhism are like that. Extension of ordinary suffering we are aware of into extreme states of suffering that may last for billions of years, just as in the other direction there may be forms of life that experience nothing but bliss for billions of years.
But none of these are permanent. Eventually the blissed out being in a state of pure thought exhausts whatever conditions lead to that situation and will be reborn again with an ordinary body like us, ordinary suffering and pleasures. The hell being also will eventually exhaust the conditions that lead to their billions of years of suffering and be reborn as a being like us too.
And life as a human is thought to be the most precious of all. When you are blissed out, is very hard to even think about impermanence, or to pay much attention to it if you know about it. Something that will happen a billion years into the future, with nothing but bliss until then - even if you know it - would you do anything about it?
And when you are in extreme suffering, then it's hard to think about anything except your suffering.
As humans we have a balance of both. So - of course variation also, if you live in very fortunate conditions you may be a bit like the long lived blissed out beings, for us even a few decades of happy conditions is enough to make it easy to forget about impermanence. And if you suffer a lot, then is hard to think about anything except your suffering and problems. But for most of us, there's some suffering, and some unsatisfactoriness, but yet enough stability and happiness to reflect on our situation and do something about things, try to find a path, realize we need to be a bit more aware of others, see that we need to work on ourselves, that there are things we need to do.
What we don't have in Buddhism is any idea at all that any of this is a punishment, caused by some external deity. Nor is the Buddhist idea of karma based on the idea of a kind of tit for tat. As Tai Situ said once in a talk, it doesn't mean that if a mosquito bites me on the nose, that I must have bitten it on its nose in the past :).
As an example given by the notable Thai Therevadhan scholar Prayudh Payutto, if you climb a flight of stairs - that's karma. When you get to the top, then you can no longer touch the ground, you may be tired after the climb, etc. You may get a great view. You may then be able to talk to your friend. So there are many effects of our actions, in this case of climbing a flight of stairs, some positive, some negative, many neutral. But it's not because someone punished you for climbing the stairs by making you tired, or rewarded you with a good view. It's just because those are consequences of climbing a flight of stairs.
That's how Buddhists think about karma - action and consequences. Extending that to past and future lives, it's the same idea. No idea of punishment or reward in the slightest. Many people get this wrong when they talk about Buddhism so it's worth emphasizing this a few times.
The origin of all this suffering, Buddha taught, is fundamentally ignorance and confusion. Of course there are many more immediate causes, e.g. someone who gets angry and kills someone and then most likely regrets it immediately - the anger is the immediate cause of their suffering. And there are many long term consequences also of what they did. And having fragile bodies makes us vulnerable to accidents and the violence also of others.
But the fundamental cause, he taught, behind all that, is that it's because we try to treat the world as permanent when it's impermanent, and don't properly see our own nature either, that we suffer so much, and behave so unskillfully. And on top of that many other confusions also arise. In the Mahayana traditions they take this so far as to say that even space and time as we understand it are also confusions - a way of straightjacketing a reality that is far more fluid than we realize.
And it's difficult to deal with them because when you become aware of some of those confusions there's a tendency to try to forcefully stamp them out - but that is even worse, makes you more confused than you were before. Because the idea to try to do that is rooted itself in a confused view of who and what we are. It's based on the confused idea that in some way by removing those confusions we've identified we can established something permanent in the world where we can be at peace with ourselves and the world. But that's itself a confused idea and the truth Buddha taught is much more fluid than that.
The way forward has to come from something other than our ordinary self as we normally think of ourselves - that's far too confining and claustrophobic a way of looking at the world to be a basis for solving the problem of suffering. Anything we try just makes things worse.
We may begin to have a glimpse of a way forward at timese when we realize that and give up on attempts to stamp out our own confusions. But then the confusions just come in again in more subtle ways, e.g. if you start to think that glimpsing a way forward makes you a better person, in some ways has solved your problem if just a bit - that's just the same old confusion in another form and you've got nowhere, except perhaps some inkling that there is a way forward though you can't find it yet. Still - that's the path of the Buddha, he taught that it is possible to find your way through all that, that at some point, all these confusions can just drop away - that when you really really see what is going on, not just build up fantasies about it, you will drop it all instantly, like letting go of a hot coal you find you've been holding in your hand all this time.
And the main reason for reflecting on the Hell Realms in Buddhism is to draw attention to the value of our present life, that we aren't suffering so much that it is impossible to think clearly. And that we have this wonderful opportunity to do something positive about our situation.
Buddhist teachers often don't talk much about Hell Realms to Westerners - because it's easily misunderstood - and so may not help relate to life in a positive way as it does traditionally, thinking how positive and wonderful this life is.
Also of course we have no direct evidence of either the hell realms or the realms of pure pleasure or even more subtle states beyond distinctions of pain and pleasure that they talk about in the teachings. And it's not a creed, so you don't have to believe in them to be a Buddhist.
It's just extrapolation, but I think whatever you think about them - if we do have multiple past and future lives, surely we must sometimes take birth in bodies that are more prone to suffering than the ones we are in now, and at other times take birth in conditions of great pleasure and happiness for our entire life. That much seems obvious.
The idea of a hell realm in Buddhism is an extension of that - suggesting the extremes are greater than we realize from just looking at the animals and humans in the world we know of. And as far as I know all the traditional Buddhist traditions talk about hell realms - though in some such as Zen Buddhism they will say very little about it, as the focus is so much on meditation and relating to what we can see for ourselves in this life.
See also my occasional blog about Buddhist ideas where I talk about some of the misconceptions of Buddhist ideas of Karma by many Westerners Some ideas about Buddhist teachings
Yes, it's not even an asteroid, just a boulder they plan to lift off an asteroid. If it ever goes ahead. Started off as moving an asteroid, now it's just a boulder.
There are experiments proposed t...
(more)Yes, it's not even an asteroid, just a boulder they plan to lift off an asteroid. If it ever goes ahead. Started off as moving an asteroid, now it's just a boulder.
There are experiments proposed to try to redirect asteroids. One of them is by the ESA, to crash a spacecraft into an asteroid moon and see what happens to its orbit.
The asteroids are much heavier than the spacecraft that would crash into them in the redirect test missions if they go ahead. So will make only the slightest of changes to the orbit.
If we ever do an asteroid redirect for real - and I expect we will, though maybe not this century - well then it would mean very careful calculations. You want to be sure your redirect pushes it away from Earth rather than towards it - you want to change a hit into a near miss - but not change a near miss into a hit!
Asteroid impacts are very rare. As you can see from history. There's no equivalent of Pompei for asteroid impacts in recorded history. So though a small 100 meter asteroid could be easily as devastating as a volcano - this has just never happened - never landed in a populated area as far as we know. They are quite rare, every few thousand years for the 100 meter ones, so it is quite possible that none has ever landed on a city or village or even a hamlet. Because much of the Earth's surface is still desert, mountains, sea, ice fields etc. And even more so in the past.
And the dinosaur extinction level ones are even rarer, only a one in ten million chance of one this century now that we have found all the NEOs of ten kilometers diameter or larger already.
So, it's entirely possible that we don't need to deflect any asteroids this century. Indeed that's by far the most likely outcome. Because for smaller ones like the Chelyabinsk meteorite - it would be enough to warn people to stay away from windows, and if necessary evacuate the impact zone if it was headed somewhere populated. Very unlikely they come close enough to an inhabited area to be of concern.
But perhaps we might deflect one of those tiny ones as an experiment rather than evacuate the impact zone. Or if it was due to impact on somewhere particularly sensitive. If so maybe we will try this out for real.
The priority right now though is to find them. If we can map them all out, even the small ones, we'd have a couple of decades warning and then deflection would be easy. If you have a decade of warning you only need to give it a delta v of 2 cm / second to move it by more than the radius of the Earth ten years later. If it does a close flyby of Earth first before the predicted impact, then an even tinier delta v is needed, it might have a keyhole of only a few hundred meters it has to go through before it can hit the next time. If so, a delta v right now of only microns per second would be enough to make sure it misses the time after that.
And the technology needed would depend on what we find. In some cases it might be enough to just "paint" the asteroid white - dust it with something light coloured, which could change its orbit by the Yarkovsky effect.
So the main priority has to be to find the things. It doesn't even cost that much. The Sentinel telescope which would find most of the smaller NEOs in less than a decade would cost less than half a billion dollars. We are already finding the larger ones using Pan Starrs and Linear at a rate of 1 a month, have already found all the ones of 10 km and 90% of those of 1 km and will get to 99% by the 2020s. But the smaller ones are tricky, we find about 500 or so of those a year which may sound a lot but there are so many that some step up of effort is needed to reach the target of 90% by the 2020s. There's another proposal NeoCam - which is similar to Sentinel but not so capable.
See also my Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
It is easy to think that a human on Mars would be much more flexible when you look at the current robotic missions. But they don't give a fair comparison. The main problem isn't the robot, it's the...
(more)It is easy to think that a human on Mars would be much more flexible when you look at the current robotic missions. But they don't give a fair comparison. The main problem isn't the robot, it's the time delay sending signals to Mars.
Opportunity took ten years to travel as far as the early Lunokhod 2 rover operated remotely from Russia did on the Moon in about four` months.
It's much worse than the time delay of the light speed travel to Mars would suggest. Because we have low bandwidth connections and only communicate once a day typically. If the rovers were on Pluto, it would make almost no difference to the time it takes to explore.
So, before you can make a proper comparison, first we have to increase the bandwidth for communications to Mars. A human mission would have broadband - well why wait for humans? Set up broadband 24/7 communications with robots on Mars first and see how they do after that.
Also it's about time we did more robotic exploration of the Moon. Without the time delay - and if we had a capable rover, we'd surely do much better than the Russians did with Lunakhod. The Apollo astronauts traveled as far in a couple of days as Lunakhod 2 did in four months.
With present day technology, semi autonomous rovers, collision avoidance etc, there isn't really any reason why we can't explore the Moon as rapidly as the Apollo astronauts did, many kilometers a day. The astronauts were limited because for safety reasons they had to keep close enough to their landing module to could get back on foot, before their oxygen ran out, if the rover malfunctioned.
Then, without the limitation of oxygen supply, the rovers can just continue across the landscape day after day wherever we want them to go. We would learn a lot about the Moon that way. And also learn a lot about what you can do with robots and how best to do it.
And with humans on the Moon as well, we'd be able to do direct comparison, and learn a lot about how humans and robots compare as they explore extraterrestrial landscapes.
As for exploring Mars I think humans may well have a role to play because of our decision making capability. But depends how easy it is to get there.
If it's going to cost a hundred billion dollars to send humans to Mars orbit, well you could send a lot of rovers for that amount. And with broadband communications - they'd easily do ten times as much as they do now each day, possibly much more if you utilize the artificial real time gaming technology to overcome lightspeed delay effects.
It might be that we send humans for similar reasons that we send them to the ISS, with politics first, and science second. If so - humans could well have a worthwhile role to play even if it ends up being a more expensive way of exploring Mars than sending rovers.
Or perhaps travel into space gets much easier and we can fly into space as easily as we can to another continent and get to Mars in a week or two. There are ideas that could make either of these happen, or both. If so, it would then not cost so much at all to send humans to Mars orbit.
Then - the humans would be in orbit, and rovers on the surface, controlled via telepresence. This takes advantage of the best qualities of each.
I don't think we'd learn anything we couldn't learn using robots. But we might learn the same things much more quickly. But possibly at much greater expense. It could be worth doing even at 100 billion dollars if you feel it is important to learn as much as possible as quickly as possible. Because the rovers controlled from Earth would surely not be quite as fast as rovers controlled from Mars orbit. But on the other hand you'd have many more of them if you can spend that budget all on rovers and not on the humans. Which is best? 200 rovers on Mars all controlled from Earth, or maybe a dozen or so controlled by humans in orbit around Mars? I can imagine scenarios in which the 200 rovers are better, and others where the dozen rovers operated by humans is better. The 200 rovers would win if you want to study many areas of Mars with many different habitats. Do both of course if you have ethe budget, 200 rovers, many controlled from Earth but the human crew in orbit stteps in to take over the most difficult decision making from one to another, choosing whichever of them has potential for finding something interesting etc.
At any rate I think missions to Mars have to have the humans in orbit for now, until we find out more. Because humans on the surface greatly increase risk of introducing Earth microbes to the planet and the last thing we want is to find life we brought there ourselves. Robots can be sterilized, in many ways. So they are the ones we have to send to the special regions, and Mars is so interconnected, what with its dust storms and atmosphere, so, I don't think ou can really set up a situation where humans contaminate just a small region of Mars - especially when you take into account the possibility of a hard landing.
No. It is hydrogen fusing to helium. It should have a small amount, just as there is on Earth, of the more stable isotope Plutonium-244 with a half life of 80 million years, which must have been c...
(more)No. It is hydrogen fusing to helium. It should have a small amount, just as there is on Earth, of the more stable isotope Plutonium-244 with a half life of 80 million years, which must have been created in supernovae, and was present in the nebula that condensed to form our solar system. The sun has all the naturally occuring elements we have on Earth. See also: Do transuranic elements such as plutonium ever occur naturally?
Though, see Mehran Moalem's answer to Is it true that the core of the Sun is Plutonium? - perhaps even the minute traces of Plutonium 244 would burn up also. It would have really tiny amounts surely from materials that hit the sun, must have minute traces of everything you find in the rest of the solar system but seems it would be depleted in Plutonium 244 even relative to the minute amounts we have elsewhere.
Our sun won't go supernova so it will never make plutonium 244 for itself. You also get plutonium 239 in a naturally occuring nuclear reactor on Earth. But it rapidly decays so that after two billion years, there is almost none left, though they can tell it was there by its decay products. The Workings of an Ancient Nuclear Reactor.
But the sun's core is seven times denser than plutonium, perhaps that's what you are thinking about? It's got a density of 150kg/liter or about seven times denser than platinum.
But the outer envelope - what we see, is much less dense. Even 2,000 kms below the apparent surface of the sun, the sun has about a thousandth of the density of the Earth's atmosphere at sea level. Though the gravity is huge, so also is its temperature and the hot gas expands and it's average density is much less than the Moon.
When the sun runs out of fuel it will become a white dwarf, with a density of a million tons per cubic meter. So that's the density it would have it wasn't so hot, temperature currently 27 millions of degrees - in white dwarf stage will be "only" a hundred thousand degrees or so.
You might like my Is it possible to build a human suit or spacecraft that can travel through the sun without being affected? If so, what would one be made of and how would it work? just for fun :).
The Moon is a big place. It's larger than Europe and North America combined. It's a bit like landing in Paris and saying you can't see Central Park in New York. And if you were as close as 3 kms aw...
(more)The Moon is a big place. It's larger than Europe and North America combined. It's a bit like landing in Paris and saying you can't see Central Park in New York. And if you were as close as 3 kms away from the landing site - or even closer with uneven terrain, you wouldn't see them. How far can you see?
As for the garment - this is an under garment. For one thing, there's no helmet. It's lacking the cooling system, not able to hold in any pressure, and of course, the boots.
For details Apollo/Skylab A7L
No, there is no need to do it for this reason. There are many other good reasons to build habitats in space and to have some humans in space at least. But this is not a good reason for it. Let me explain why.
...
(more)No, there is no need to do it for this reason. There are many other good reasons to build habitats in space and to have some humans in space at least. But this is not a good reason for it. Let me explain why.
So many people say we are doomed, and have to become "multiplanetary" to escape that doom. But if you look at it carefully - we aren't at all!
Global warming at its worst will increase the temperature of Earth by a few degrees. We absolutely have to stop that and we can. It will cause mass extinctions if this happens because many plants and animals can only live in limited habitats. Species in tropical jungles go extinct if you change the temperature of the jungle by a few degrees. If the oceans go just a bit acid, then corals go extinct, as has happened many times in the geological past. If the temperature rises just a little, then trees will no longer be able to grow where they are and as trees can't walk, that means that many will go extinct also.
But there is no way this will make humans extinct. We are far more adaptable than these species. There are humans in tropical jungles and in the Arctic, and they are able to survive with only the most rudimentary of technology in these places.
We don't need to worry about safeguarding the future of our species because of global warming.
Earth is not even particularly warm at present. It's actually geologically in an "ice age" - a period when the Earth has land masses or enclosed seas at one or other - or in our case both of the poles. For most of its history, the poles were open ocean, and there was no permanent ice anywhere at sea level and the Earth as a whole was much warmer (ice reflects heat away into space and cools down the planet).
The dinosaurs lived in a much warmer planet than the one we live in. So global warming is not at any risk of making Earth unusually warm. Indeed, it may have prevented us from going into an ice age in the near future. It's harmful for us because it is happening so quickly and because so many species are sensitive to tiny changes of temperature of a few degrees, and because of the sea level rises, the changes of climate such as storms, drought, flooding, more extremes of both cold and hot that are predicted to happen as the temperature of the Earth rises slightly. Nothing there that would make us extinct.
And also - asteroid impacts won't make us extinct. The impact that made the dinosaurs extinct was survived by turtles, birds, even the dawn redwood.
This turtle briefly ruled the world after the dinosaurs were wiped out
And this tree
survived the dinosaur extinction and is still growing today, the Metasequoia
As well as the avian dinosaurs.
And crocodiles and alligators Survivors
With our technology, even the most rudimentary technology such as boats, able to dig mines and build shelters, we are more versatile than any of those, and many humans would surely survive a similar event.
And the chance of it is tiny. Only one chance in ten million for the next century, and we are doing surveys that would give us decades of warning once they are complete for most asteroids. And can deflect them also especially with lots of warning.
And we can't be hit by a really large asteroid large enough to boil the Earth's oceans and remove its atmosphere. There were many such asteroids in the early solar system but the late heavy bombardment finished more than three billion years ago, and Jupiter is protecting us from them now, apart from the ones in the asteroid belt which are in stable orbits at least over periods of millions of years. We can confirm this from the cratering record in the inner solar system, that we aren't at risk at all from really huge asteroids, only the smaller ten kilometer or so ones like the one that made the dinosaurs extinct.
And then - there is nowhere in space that is remotely as habitable as Earth.
If something did happen to make humans extinct on Earth, or nearly extinct, and you had anyone, anywhere in the solar system who survived the disaster - where do you think they would want to go to set up home and rebuild after the disaster? Earth. Mars or the Moon?
So where is the best place for the backup?
We could build backups on Earth far more easily than anywhere else. And it doesn't make much sense to have the backup on the Moon or Mars when it is needed for Earth to recover after a disaster. There would be many humans left on Earth, and what use is it to them to have a technological habitat somewhere on the Mars or the Moon? Anyone living there would have far worse chance of survival than people on Earth because here, after all, no matter what, we can breath the air. And have water, and a moderate temperature ideal for us, and protection from cosmic radiation.
And we can build houses here easily, from bricks, wood, indeed at a push you can sleep out of doors especially in the warmer parts of the world. Even in colder places, all you need in most parts of the world is a decent sleeping bag and a tent, and you could survive almost anywhere, if you can find enough food and water. Or if you can find wood, you can light a fire to keep warm.
No need to don a spacesuit, pressurized, stiff gloves, hard to work in, to make a highly technological habitat that needs computers to run it, and lots of machines, and if they go wrong you have had it. And your habitat pressurized with ten tons per square meter of outwards pressure - and the only way to keep warm again is to use highly technological machinery.
At least in the near future. Further into the future maybe we can build space colonies that have economies of scale. But even then - it's going to be hard to beat the Earth where you don't even need to build a habitat at all to have oxygen to breath, food to eat, wood to burn if necessary, to stay alive.
I think there are many good reasons for having humans in space. Much like the reasons there are for exploring Antarctica in the nineteenth century, then setting up bases there.
But I don't think myself that they are good places to colonize. And I think that the idea of making this a priority would divert attention away from the very valuable but more limited settlement we can do in space, doing things that are of direct value to the Earth as well as things that benefit us scientifically, and learning about our solar system and the origins of life.
I think we need to acknowledge that we are a young species. Only had space technology for less than a century. We live in a solar system with one beautiful habitable planet our Earth. And our priority should be to keep it that way. Whether we do anything else in the future, there is no hurry. If we can keep our Earth in good condition we have millions of years ahead of us to decide what to do next.
One thing we can do with our technology is to detect and divert asteroids that may be a future threat to Earth. We may be able to mine useful resources in space. We may be able to get solar power. We may be able to do many things. Exciting, valuable, useful things we may be able to do.
I'm moderate in my views about space settlement. I think it is neither good nor bad, but can go either way.
If we go into space with the idea that protecting our home planet is of the highest importance - I think we are more likely to survive than if we go into space with the aim to try to become multiplanetary because we think our home world is potentially doomed.
Especially when our home planet is not threatened by any extinction causing disaster.
Of course if our home world was indeed threatened because our sun is about to go supernova, or there's a planet sized asteroid headed our way - that's a very different story :).
But for us, in a relatively quiet area of the galaxy, far from the galactic core, in orbit around a stable star, not prone to extreme solar flares, not one that goes supernova, no nearby stars of the type that can go supernova - I see protecting our home planet from natural disaster as a top priority.
An ET might be quite bemused at the way we have so many rockets and spy satellites pointed at each other and so little by way of space technology facing outwards, to detect asteroids or deflect them. So many huge spy telescopes pointed at Earth. on secret military missions. Almost nothing looking outwards, just Hubble of the really large space telescopes, then in the future the James Webb telescope.
Compared to the amount of technology we have facing towards the Earth treating each other as the threat to be neutralized, the amount devoted to planetary protection is absolutely minute.
Our government in the UK is currently contemplating spending probably $100 billion on renewing Trident, submarines armed with nuclear missiles of no use at all except for "mutually assured destruction".
With that money just the UK on its own, a fairly small country in the world as a whole - quite wealthy but there are many countries more wealthy - we could easily build 200 copies of the B612 telescope, orbiting between Earth and Venus, looking out for Near Earth asteroids in the infrared, especially the hard to detect ones between us and the sun.
Just one such telescope would find nearly all the medium sized to small NEOs within 6.5 years, and make a good stab at finding the 20 meter ones as well. Think what we could do if we all got together to work to find them all, world wide, putting even a tiny fraction of our defense budgets behind the project?
I think we should do things like that with our space technology. Plus support the Earth in all the ways we can. And also explore the solar system, but acknowledging our lack of knowledge and limitations, so with humility. Taking care, that we don't repeat the many mistakes we have made on the Earth as we explore our solar system.
So - no, I don't think we should focus on colonization. We should focus on space exploration, discovery, and have humans in space for what they are good at. With the robots as our mobile eyes and hands and ears in the solar system. I see a future of collaboration between humans and robots in space, with both doing what they do best. Robots can stay patiently in one spot on the Moon or Mars fed by only a trickle of electricity from solar panels, for days, weeks, months, years just exploring one tiny spot. No need for food. No need for oxygen. Can be sterilized for search for life or prebiotic organics - humans can never be sterilized of microbes in the way a robot can be. And a few humans could control dozens of robots like that, hop about in virtual reality from one spot to another. A bit like the game of civilization. I think that's a quite likely future in space. Just because space is so inhospitable to humans, a bit like the sea bed. Humans can go to the sea floor, but especially for deeper places, then it makes more sense to send robots. Less danger, more capable, and same thing, they can stay there for weeks or months or even years on end, which humans could never do without a huge logistics problem.
Depends. Maybe we will find some way to build closed systems that work in space. But remember - if that happens, it will also be possible on Earth. And far easier to build a habitat in a desert, in an atmosphere where you can breath the air, with nitrogen in the atmosphere, and water vapour in huge quantities even in our driest deserts - and even the Sahara sand has a reasonable percentage of water.
If the Sahara was another planet, a planet with an Earth atmosphere, covered in Sahara desert, nothing else there at all - and same temperature, you'd look at it and say "wow, how habitable this is, nearly as habitable as Earth!". It would be far far far more habitable than Mars. Even without the seas we have on Earth.
So if we ever build this technology the space colonists talk about and assume for the future, we could use the same technology to green the deserts of Earth for far less cost.
As for the idea of going into space out of fear that we will destroy ourselves through technology - well if we ever send millions of people into space with spaceships - if flights into space get as commonplace as present day flights to other continents - well that's a double edged sword. It would have to be a far more peaceful future than we have now, as that would mean you have millions of people with easy access to far more than ICBM level technology. Indeed a big drive to colonize space, if it ever lead to warfare and conflict between the colonists and each other or with Earth could be the very thing that makes us extinct, if anything could.
Which is why I see it as neutral. Go into space with the right attitude, with keeping Earth safe as our priority, and I think we've got a decent chance. So I think that should be our focus, not colonization. At this stage anyway, until we know more about our solar system, our galaxy and ourselves.
Longer term, yes, Earth is threatened. A half billion years from now. But that's a future so far away that humans could evolve a second time all the way from the most primitive multicellular creatures. That's nearly twice the length of time the trilobites lasted on Earth - amongst the longest surviving groups of creatures ever to have evolved on Earth. We would need to be a longer lived species than trilobites for that to be of relevance to humans.
I know that Carl Sagan argued strongly for colonization in his Pale Blue Dot. He was putting forward a carefully considered scientific and philosophical and ethical argument. But astronomy has moved on a lot since he wrote "Pale Blue Dot". At the time we didn't have an accurate picture of the impact risk for Earth. And he was also writing at a time wehn the prevailing scientific belief was that there is no other life in our solar system. Nowadays many astrobiologists would almost trend in the opposite direction to say that present day life is possible, even likely. And scientific knowledge has moved on in many other ways also.
He was certainly arguing for our species to settle other worlds in Pale Blue Dot - but he also presents a case based on various arguments he set out as a scientist. And made clear his case depends on those arguments. Which makes it something we can reassess.
It's a different situation now. And no, I don't think we need to focus on colonization as a priority, not at present. I think we need to focus instead on exploration, discovery, and protecting Earth.
And that our top priority should be the health of our beautiful planet Earth.
See also my science20 blog posts:
End Of All Life On Earth - A Billion Years From Now - Can It Be Avoided - And Who Will Be Here Then?
Why We Can't "Backup Earth" On Mars, The Moon, Or Anywhere Else In Our Solar System
Ten reasons not to live on Mars great place to explore
Could Astronauts Get All Their Oxygen From Algae Or Plants? And Their Food Also?
Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
Yes, well its surface is. One surprise from Curiosity is that it is a very thin surface layer.
Red Planet Mars Not So Red Inside
There is almost no oxygen in its present day atmosphere. But in the ...
(more)Yes, well its surface is. One surprise from Curiosity is that it is a very thin surface layer.
Red Planet Mars Not So Red Inside
There is almost no oxygen in its present day atmosphere. But in the past it may have been oxygen rich. But doesn't necessarily mean there was life there in the past. The atmosphere could be oxygen rich through the effect of the solar wind stripping the hydrogen from water vapour and leaving oxygen behind.
One scientist thinks this might be how Mars got its red surface. Early Mars atmosphere 'oxygen-rich' before Earth's - BBC News
See also their press release: Mars had oxygen-rich atmosphere 4000m years ago
Another possibility is that other chemical processes oxidised the surface not involving free oxygen.
At any rate the surface is highly oxygenated now. Not just the iron oxides - which cover the rocks and make up the main component of the fine dust. Also all the salts (combination of an acid and a base) on Mars are highly oxygenated.
On Earth we have mainly chlorides (table salt), sulfides etc. On Mars the salts are nearly all sulfates, chlorates, and perchlorates, all highly oxygenated.
Which on the face of it is surprising since its atmosphere is almost entirely CO2, while Earth's atmosphere has large quantities of oxygen - you'd expect it to be the other way around that Mars had the reduced salts and Earth the chlorates and perchlorates.
Interesting, first soft landing on the Moon (or anywhere). Used rockets to slow down and then air bags for the final landing, bounced a few times. Luna 9
I can see that potentially working for a small spacecraft like a cubesat, sent to the Moon.
WHY LANDING ON THE MOON IS EASY WITH ROCKETS
The thing about the Moon is that with its low gravity you don't need much of an engine to land there. As you can tell by the tiny rocket engines of the lunar module compared with the size of the Saturn V that was needed to launch from Earth.
And with modern technology, easy to control the landing, and no atmosphere makes it much easier to land than, say, on Mars.
So the question is - what could airbags offer that might give them an advantage over rockets when rockets work so well on the Moon?
So would need to be a situation where for some reason you can't put a rocket engine into your spacecraft, or can't control it precisely, or can't do ranging estimates of the surface, or some such scenario.
So - gets me thinking first of a scenario where perhaps your main spacecraft landing on the Moon carries dozens of cubesats which it fires in all directions as it lands - and they then use airbags to cushion their landing on the lunar surface. Something like that perhaps?
That could be useful for instance if you don't have a rover, and want to explore a region around your lander. A bit like Penelope Boston's cave bots idea for exploring Mars caves
HOPPING MICROBOT SWARMS TO EXPLORE SURFACE AND CAVES
Small, spherical microbots filled with minature fuel cells, instruments and an artificial muscle for hopping
Microbot Madness: Hopping Toward Planetary Exploration
They could fit a thousand of these into 174 Kgs.
Penelope Boston also talks about them here - for exploring caves on Mars.
(this bit is extracted from my Soaring, Buzzing, Floating, Hopping, Crawling And Inflatable Mars Rovers - Suggestions For UAE Mars Lander )
The Moon has caves too, so her idea may be useful there as well.
Though she doesn't talk about airbags, I can imagine they might be useful especially when you don't know the depth of the cave in advance. A few tiny air bags attached to each microbot, inflates during the landing, and then detaches on landing. Either eject them during the landing of the main craft (which communicates back to Earth), or fire them into the cave after the landing.
Or a similar idea, to explore the ice deposits of the craters of eternal night at the poles. Can't see the surface visually, just fire lots of cubesats or microbots and cushion them with air bags. Even if you can see the surface, it lets you explore a large area with relatively simple technology without needing a rover. Might be useful in some scenarios.
SIMPLIFYING THE LANDING PROCESS
Another possible scenario - if your spacecraft doesn't have any video feed or radar ranging - perhaps a tiny cubesat type spacecraft with a small retro rocket to land - but no way to tell the distance from the surface. Program it to land approximately on the surface and then use air bags to deal with the last few meters of fall.
Or generally, it could be useful as an extra precaution to save your lander in event of a hard landing, a bit like airbags in a car. If you hit the surface at a few meters per second, maybe some computer glitch during the final approach - well an air bag could save your spacecraft.
Seems like a technology for lunar landers to keep in mind in case it is useful.
And just looking it up, one of the lunar Xprize contenders, Plan B say
"Main weight target on low-earth orbit for a probe and vehicle total is 100-150 kg. Flight schema will include two orbit correction impulses, one main and one brake impulse with direct arrival to the moon surface and soft landing with air-bags assistance. "
So yes, it's a good enough solution so that one of the X Prize contenders considered using it.
It makes the landing simpler to just have a preset landing sequence and use air bags for correction of errors.
"Brake impulse can be preset and constant at design stage, plus-minus variation verified at testing stage. “Earth-to-moon” orbit correction together with intensive calculations on mission control system, and on board computers has to deliver probe in specific point, with specific velocity in sun-earth-moon celestial point. Astro-orientation system must set impulse’s vector based on desired landing place. Brake impulse should slow probe enough to be allow soft-landing (air-bag based) system to adsorb impact at lunar surface. Before soft landing all unused parts and engines frame needs to be disconnected / ejected. Probe's antenna needs to be placed into a landing position."
...
" Moment of engine stop, detected by acceleration sensors will signal to deploy airbags. Deploying airbags will remove engine frame mounted on a lunar vehicle and the frame itself will be ejected by the rotation’s momentum from brake stage. Air bag will be inflated by evaporated ethanol require for low-thrust engine burning."
...
"Airbags should be capable to reduce maximum speed at surface impact from 80m/s to 0 m/s with landing on lunar powder 20 cm deep. On impact airbags will be ruptured. Orientation to surface at landing will be achieved by rotation of probe. All landing will be performed automatically by on-board computer with telemetry recorded. It is not practical to make video after airbags will be deployed, but some video recording is possible at brake-engine firing."
But later they dropped the airbag idea and plan instead to use a method a bit like the crumple zone in a car:
"To survive impact, air bags idea was abandoned because of a weight restriction, complexity of inflation process, and unidirectional capability to adsorb impact. Instead of this we adapted idea of making impact adsorption shield made of composites, each layer of a shield crushes into each other with energy of impact transforming to a process of destruction. Shield will be on one side of a rover only and has to be orient before impact to face lunar surface. This is a very, very weak point in design – after separation from a break engine, rover has to align itself to brace impact."
G FORCE FOR AIR BAGS LANDING
If I understand it right, the original Plan B idea was for airbags that puncture and deflate immediately on impact.
But the landings on Mars used air bags that were more robust and let the spacecraft bounce several times. Even if you approach at just 80 meters per second, or 178 mph, if you need to get rid of all that delta v in say one centimeter, so an 800th of a second, that's 6400 gs.
So it's not just the delta v, but how quickly you need to stop it. If your bags can compress a lot, say in one meter, that's 1/80 of a second so it's 80/(1/80) or 6400 meters per second per second deceleration, so around 640 g. Still a very rough landing.
Bouncing doesn't help with the g force of the initial impact if you hit the surface at a steep angle, as you still have the deceleration to a stop for the first bounce, and then bounce back up again.
If your spacecraft can approach at a more shallow angle, then it can slow down over a much longer period of time. This has the disadvantage that it will set the lander spinning.
See discussion here Hard landing for a lunar rover
The Spirit rover on Mars hit the surface at around 50 km / hour or about 14 meters per second.
NASA - NSSDCA - Spacecraft - Details.
(image from Mars Exploration Rover Mission: The Mission )
So that much at least is survivable by a spacecraft with airbags. (I doubt if the near vacuum Mars atmosphere makes much difference to an airbag impact at those slow speeds?)
The IAU currently calls Pluto a non planet - but also a dwarf planet. I think that is a strange way to use language myself. How can a celestial object at the same time not be a planet, but be a dwarf planet?
...
(more)The IAU currently calls Pluto a non planet - but also a dwarf planet. I think that is a strange way to use language myself. How can a celestial object at the same time not be a planet, but be a dwarf planet?
Also they use the term "dwarf" to refer to "capable of clearing its orbit". This has nothing to do with the way the word dwarf is usually used in English.
What happens if for instance we find a large object in the outer solar system, larger than Earth, maybe the size of Neptune, and it doesn't "clear its orbit"? Is it then a dwarf planet - and not a planet?
The IAU definition works after a fashion so far because it so happens that all the celestial objects in our solar system which clear their orbit are larger than all the ones that don't. And there is a clear dividing line. According to all the main measures for "clearing its orbit", then Mars (the planet that is least able to clear its orbit) is far better at clearing its orbit than Ceres (the "dwarf planet that is most able to clear its orbit).
But - as time goes on we may well find objects in the borderline between the two. Ones that almost clear their orbit and don't quite, and ones that do clear their orbit but only just, and others that clear their orbit according to some of the metrics and not according to others.
Indeed this new Planet X - which for some reason everyone has taken to calling "Planet 9" is close to this border if it exists. So close that if, for instance, there was an Earth mass planet in a similar orbit, then it would count as a dwarf planet according to some discriminants.
Margot's Π for the new planet is around 5.25.
By comparison Margot's discriminant for Mars is 54, the most weakly clearing of all the recognized planets. And of Mercury is 140.
An Earth mass planet in a similar orbit would have Margot discriminant a tenth of that, of 0.5247 and so would not be a planet according to Margot's discriminant.
Also a 10 Earth mass planet in an orbit with semi major axis 4000 au would not count as a planet because its Margot discriminant is 0.7385.
So it's a pretty close thing. Almost "too close to call" until we find out more. It might depend which discriminant you use.
I think there's a reasonable chance that we may end up in a situation where we start to find new "dwarf planets" in the Oort cloud that are larger than Mercury and possibly larger than Mars or Earth. At that point it would probably seem really strange to most to call them "dwarf planets". And the dividing line between planets and dwarf planets would become more and more arbitrary.
If we find a planet with Margot's Π of 1.1 and the other with a value of 0.9 - and the second one is, say, much larger than the first, both in hydrostatic equilibrium - do we still call the one with this discriminant less than 1 a dwarf and the one with it more than 1 a planet?
It is well possible that we may find such planets, if we continue to explore the Oort cloud. Earth and Neptune sized planets at various distances from the sun in various orbits.
And the IAU decision was contested at the time. And it's a bit strange in other ways, especially its definition of a planet in hydrostatic equilibrium which it paraphrases as "nearly round". Planets in hydrostatic equilibrium could easily be not even remotely round.
PLANETS IN HYDROSTATIC EQUILIBRIUM
I'm strongly in favour of calling anything a planet if it is in hydrostatic equilibrium under gravity. Easy thing, you can tell that it's a planet as soon as you know its shape.
This doesn't just mean "nearly round" planets as in the IAU definition but also triaxial ellipsoids like Haumea, and over contact binaries if we find those as well, rocheworld scenarios. They'd all be planets because they are in hydrostatic equilibrium.
GIANTS AND DWARFS - AND UBER PLANETS
And then our planet has giant planets like Jupiter, and Neptune, dwarf planets like Earth and Mercury and sub dwarf planets like Ceres, Pluto, Sedna etc.
And then can refer to uber and unter planets for the clearing out the orbit, as Alan Stern suggested in his original paper. Or any other names, but just use a separate dedicated name for this concept.
That way we can have dwarf planets that are either uber or unter - clear or don't clearer, and giant planets can be also like a Venn diagram.
And then we can subdivide the planets up as we like - giant, dwarf, subdwarf, sub sub dwarf, and slice them any way we like without having to worry about whether they are clearing their neighbourhood or not.
Then we can use other words for asteroids on borderline between asteroids and dwarf (or sub dwarf) planets, such as planetoids, say.
EXAMPLES
So Vesta for instance would be a planetoid.
Ceres would be a dwarf unter planet.
Mercury is a dwarf uber planet
Pluto is a dwarf unter planet. So also are Sedna and all the other dwarf planets discovered recently.
Neptune is a giant uber planet
f you want a more precise term, Alan Stern suggested calling Earth, Mercury, Venus and Mars dwarf planets, and Pluto, Ceres, Eris etc "sub dwarf" planets. See Page on swri.edu
Alan Stern's suggestion is to call Earth and Venus, Mars, Mercury - the planets to the left of the picture, dwarfs.
Then he would call the really tiny Pluto, Charon, KBO objects etc, to the right of the picture, sub dwarfs.
But they are all planets. Image from: Illustrations - Roberto Ziche
Then the Kuiper cliff Planet X if it exists, Mars or Earth sized, would be a dwarf uber or unter planet depending on whether it is able to clear its orbit.
SO THEN IT CAN BE A GIANT PLANET WHETHER IT IS UBER OR UNTER
And this new object will be a giant planet (not a dwarf, and definitely a planet). We'll be able to say this right away just as soon as we know its mass.
But we might not be sure for some time whether it is uber or unter.
And won't have this absurd (seems to me) situation where a planet has to be referred to as a "dwarf planet" and not a planet if it doesn't clear its neighbourhood. That has nothing to do with the way "dwarf" is usually understood and it doesn't help with understanding, its unintuitive. Surely whether a planet is a dwarf or not has to depend on its mass?
And even more so when you then go on to say that it is also not a planet. How can a dwarf planet not be a planet?
With the IAU definition you have tiny Mercury which counts as a planet - and you could have a planet the size of Jupiter that has to be called a dwarf planet if it is way out in the Oort cloud. and in that situation then the Jupiter would be a dwarf planet and not a planet, and the Mercury would be a proper planet and not a dwarf.!
It works so far mainly because the planets so far discovered that clear their neighbourhood also happen to be large and the ones that don't are all small.
It makes no difference of course to Ceres or Pluto if we call them planets or not - but it makes a difference to us. I'm trained as a mathematician myself and one of the most important things in mathematical reasoning is to start off with clear concepts. And the simplest, most straightforward concepts you have, the easier it is to do maths.
In this way - for planets, the simplest most straightforward concept to use as a basic idea for reasoning in astronomy is to say it is a planet if it is in hydrostatic equilibrium. Or at least, the word itself doesn't matter, but to have some unifying name for that concept so you don't have to keep saying "in hydrostatic equilibrium".
And when the one thing in common between so called "dwarf planets" and "planets" is that they are both in hydrostatic equilibrium, it seems a really contorted way to use language to say that, nevertheless, the dwarf planets are not planets. And that they are not necessarily small either, happen to be small so far but don't have to be small at all as as part of the definition. Even a Jupiter sized planet could be a "dwarf" according to this definition if far enough from the sun. I think this definition is going to confuse people and that's why I think it should be changed.
IAU CAN CHANGE ITS MIND
What if the IAU changes its definition again, as many astronomers are asking it to do - to call Ceres and Pluto both planets as well?
A definition changed once can change again. I don't think myself that this definition of a planet currently used by the IAU is a keeper long term. Sooner or later it will be found to be too awkward and they will have to change it, is my view.
Part of this is extracted from my science blog posts: Would New Planet X Clear Its Orbit? - And Any Better Name Than "Planet Nine"?
and see also: Pluto - When Is A Dwarf Planet Not A Planet?
Just wanted to add, to these excellent answers, that in a way the world is flat to a first approximation locally. And of course its rare in everyday life that you need to take account of its curvat...
(more)Just wanted to add, to these excellent answers, that in a way the world is flat to a first approximation locally. And of course its rare in everyday life that you need to take account of its curvature. You don't need to build with curved foundation blocks :).
Also, we can't combine together in our imagination this world where you can walk for miles and miles over the landscape with the idea of something round.
You can attempt to, but you are bound to think of it as a small round object.
It's so close to flat almost impossible to imagine something as large as our Earth and also round.
Photos from space show the world as a small round sphere. And from that perspective it is. And you see how fragile it is. And nowadays it is possible to fly around the Earth in a couple of days if you travel non stop. How long would it take to go around the world in a plane, nonstop?
But in another sense it is so vast - circumference of 40,075 km.
At a typical walking speed of say, 5 km / hour, that's 334 days, or a little short of a year to walk all the way around, walking day and night. If you walk for only 8 hours a day and keep up that 5 km, so traveling 40 km every day, or 25 miles a day, you would take three years to walk that distance.
Of course much of it is also ocean.
But I think the flat Earth society - though obviously wrong from a scientific point of view, do have a point psychologically and perhaps philosophically.
To get an adequate picture of the Earth we need to combine, somehow, the vast perspective you get with the idea of a flat Earth stretching as far as you can see in any direction, with the round Earth picture of science. Easy to combine in science and maths, not so easy in imagination.
OF COURSE YOU CAN TELL IT IS ROUND
Just to say, don't get me wrong, I'm not saying you can't tell that the Earth is round :).
If you go to the sea shore especially, you can probably tell that the distance you can see depends on the height of your eye above the horizon. An island for instance may be hidden when you look from 2 meters above sea level but visible if you climb a small hill, and you can see boats disappear below the horizon as they depart on a calm day. Distance to the Horizon Calculator
And there are many other ways you can tell it is round mentioned in the other answers here. For instance by looking at the shadow of the Earth on the Moon, or by comparing shadows of vertical sticks at different latitudes.
I haven't gone into them in my answer because they have been said already. See the other answers to Let's say I don't believe the world is round. How can one prove the world is round to me?
But locally it is extremely flat, so much so that until the Greeks in the 5th century BC, just about everyone thought it was flat and all the ancient civilizations before then thought that it was flat. And in India and China and other places the idea of a flat Earth persisted into recent times, though it's a myth that Europeans thought the Earth was flat before Columbus. For more on this see the other answers here + the wikipedia page . Flat Earth
And that I think if you have got it into your mind that the Earth is round, you may find you think of it as also really small. In a way it is, relative to the sun, planets, scale of the solar system. But in other ways it is not. It's absolutely huge. Especially if you feel that somehow we are confined into a tiny planet, that may be because you are thinking of the Earth as far smaller than it really is.
It is both fragile, and also vast beyond imagination. And it isn't as fragile as many think now. See for instance Will Earth ever be as inhospitable to humans as Mars is now?. It is both interconnected, and fragile - but also robust as well in other ways.
I think many people when they imagine a round Earth think of something a bit like this
And that view of the Earth is just as wrong as the idea that it is flat. :).
Or, a better way of looking at it, both ways of thinking of the Earth have an element of truth in them. Not scientific truth, there is no scientific truth in the idea of a flat Earth, except as a useful first approximation for many experiments where you don't have to take account of the curvature of the Earth.
Even in science it is usually a good approximation to neglect the roundness of the Earth or the curvature of space time it causes.
But though it's not a scientific truth except as an approximation - there's an element of philosophical and psychological truth.
I come to this from a slightly different perspective, don't often encounter people who are convinced the Earth is flat, but often come across people who think the world is doomed by our technology and I think that the idea of the Earth as a tiny round sphere which sort of pervades our culture may be part of that, that they don't realize quite how huge it is. And how resilient it is as well.
Even with our modern technology and vast numbers of people, there is nothing we are doing that will severely impact on the habitability of the Earth. Will Earth ever be as inhospitable to humans as Mars is now? When you accept that, then you can start to work on the things that do need to be dealt with.
I think this idea of the Earth as so fragile is something that can be paralysing if taken too far - like the two extremes - that Earth is so robust nothing we can do will impact on it - obviously wrong. And that it is so fragile that we risk making it uninhabitable - that's also wrong. We are in an in between state where things we are doing do have impacts on the Earth. But it is also resilient if we can just find a way to work with it, to help it heal itself. Which need not be that hard to do.
You can try it out, just try for a moment or two imagining that the world is actually flat rather than round, stretching endlessly in all directions - and see how much larger it seems to be in your imagination than your picture of round Earth.
Yes, our best predictions are that it will become uninhabitable between half a billion and a billion years from now. Not in the same way as Mars, instead of getting too cold, it gets too hot, like ...
(more)Yes, our best predictions are that it will become uninhabitable between half a billion and a billion years from now. Not in the same way as Mars, instead of getting too cold, it gets too hot, like Venus. The oceans boil and the atmosphere eventually is lost. Finally as the sun goes red giant, maybe even the rocks will melt and boil. And is possible it will get absorbed by the expanding sun though general idea seems to be that it will probably escape that and end up rather as a hot rocky world like Mercury circling close to the massive red giant sun.
That is unless we - or rather our successors most likely half a billion years from now find a way to move it further out in the solar system. That shouldn't be ruled out as there are ideas for ways we could do that, even with current technology, given a huge investment and a project that lasts for millions of years.
Also - as Earth becomes uninhabitable, Mars becomes more habitable. In that distant future half a billion years from now, who knows, maybe humans - or whatever we evolve into or whatever comes after us - will live on Mars then. They won't need mega engineering with greenhouse gas factories or planet sized mirrors. Instead the planet will warm up by itself. But that's so far in the future we don't know what kind of creatures the future "us" would be. As an example, they could be creatures that live only in water - then they need to go to Europa probably.
Later on even Jupiter will get warm too. And then - even Saturn's Titan, and Triton, perhaps even Pluto will eventually end up in the habitable zone according to a paper by Alan Stern.
Outer Planets Could Warm Up as Sun Dies - Universe Today
So we might "leap frog" from planet to planet outwards in our solar system as the sun warms up.
See also End Of All Life On Earth - A Billion Years From Now - Can It Be Avoided - And Who Will Be Here Then?
And David Brin's Let's Lift The Earth!
It's not going to happen in the near future though. Even if humans were to burn all the fossil fuel in all the reservoirs on Earth - it would raise the temperature by a few degrees, but it would not end up with a runaway greenhouse effect. To do that would require ten times the amount of CO2 that would be released by burning all the fossil fuel on Earth. See: Will Earth's Ocean Boil Away? Note, water vapour and clathrate methane release is included in those calculations.
Indeed, without the global warming we've had so far, we would probably have gone into the next ice age in the not so distant future - on scale of centuries, not years, but could have happened. When I was a child, scientists were wondering about whether this would happen, and science fiction writers wrote stories about e.g. ice encroaching on London. Our greenhouse warming so far may have averted that.
Geologically the whole Earth is in an "ice age" defined as a period when the Earth has ice at its poles. Much of the time, when there is no land at or near the poles, then Earth has no ice at all except on high mountains like the Himalays.
So Earth is unusually cold at present. Far colder than it was at the time of the dinosaurs. Global warming is an issue mainly because it is happening so quickly. Humans can adapt, we can live anywhere from tropical jungles to the Arctic and Siberia, with our technology - even before the industrial revolution we could do that. But many species can't.
In the case of tropical jungles, even a degree or two increase in temperature could lead many species to become extinct. And plants especially can only move slowly. Trees could find themselves in a habitat they are not adapted to as the Earth warms up by a few degrees. Coral reefs could disappear as the oceans become more acidic - this has happened many times in the geological history - there are periods of acid oceans with no coral reefs, then periods like ours with coral reefs - and interestingly, each time coral reefs return, it's a different group of creatures that form them. New species that develop the same adaptation as before. So over millions of years, coral reefs would certainly return if the acid oceans make them extinct - but not the same species as before.
So the reason there is so much concern about global warming is because it is so rapid and the reason for mass extinction predictions if we let the temperature get too high is because there isn't enough time for the Earth to adapt. But there isn't any worry that Earth could become uninhabitable as a result of global warming. That's a movie trope.
There are plenty enough reasons to do something about global warming :). But we don't need to have that extra worry that we can make Earth as uninhabitable as Mars or Venus.
Oh and people sometimes worry that by cutting down trees we could make our air unbreathable. But the residence time of oxygen in our atmosphere is 3,000 to 10,000 years (not easy to find a good figure for it but that's in the right ballpark). So there is no worry about that either. And though trees and plants also contribute, most of the oxygen comes from the green algae in the sea.
Even if humans cut down all the trees and removed all the vegetation on Earth and destroyed all the green algae - of course that would be disastrous for other reasons and not going to happen surely - but we would still be able to breathe even in that extreme scenario, and on the timescale of the oxygen residence time in the atmosphere, the plants and algae would soon return, from a few seeds or remaining algae. See also my answer to If the planet earth stopped producing oxygen, for how long could life exist?
Yes, I think there is something in this. Perhaps not so much the Lamas themselves - well most of them - but a two way thing. For some reason Westerners when introduced to Tibetan Buddhism tend to t...
(more)Yes, I think there is something in this. Perhaps not so much the Lamas themselves - well most of them - but a two way thing. For some reason Westerners when introduced to Tibetan Buddhism tend to think that it is all about cultivating these religious imaginations you talk about. And they pester the Lamas to give them more and more advanced and intricate things to imagine. Which they think of as "higher practices". Many of the Lamas humour them by giving them complicated things to imagine, intricate vast mandalas - but they are careful not to give them practices that would lead them too much into a world of pure fantasy.
They got this tradition from Indian Buddhism and it is surely related to the practices of Hindu yoga deities. But not thought of as deities, rather as aspects of enlightenment. They are more like poems. Like the vivid images you may get in some of Blake's p0ems, for instance, which somehow affect you at a deep level.
They are meant to evoke compassion and love and wisdom in the practitioner, and such like. And if taught properly, you are taught that the idea eventually is to drop all the visualizations, that the true compassion is not Chenrezig (Avalokiteśvara as an image or statue of a person holding a lotus flower
Avalokiteśvara holding a lotus flower. Nālandā, Bihar, India, 9th century CE. Khasarpana Lokesvara (wikipedia)
Or like this
Avalokiteśvara painting from a Sanskrit palm-leaf manuscript. India, 12th century. See Astasahasrika Prajnaparamita Avalokitesvara Bodhisattva Nalanda (wikipedia)
That's just a visual poem to evoke compassion. And there may be an accompanying poem to recite and of course the Om Mani Padme Hung mantra
"Along the paths of Zanskar, the traveller is often confronted with Mani walls. These stone structures are a compilation of exquisitely carved stone tablets, each with the inscription "Om Mani Padme Hum" which translates to "Hail to the jewel in the lotus". "Mune wall col
There would be no point at all in visualizing Chenrezig or Avelokitesvara if it didn't evoke compassion. And at the end you need to drop the visualization, as it can get in the way of true compassion if you always have this image kind of between you and the true nature of compassion.
So the problem with Westerners is that often they are very heavy in their visualizations. And they may be able to imagine Chenrezig in great detail following the instructions of their Lama, but haven't done much by way of relating to the compassion side of it, so it's not evoking much by way of compassion. That's almost pointless. It does have some value, they have the idea that by doing this you are making a connection with the practice, even if you aren't actually doing it properly, so maybe some time in the future you will do it properly.
Most of the "initiations" that Tibetan Lamas give in the West are like this, blessing connections. Not really the proper practice.
My teacher (I don't mean guru, as I haven't entered into a guru / student relationship, but the person who taught me and others in the Nyingmapa Tibetan tradition for many years) - he said that with those mass initiations you get sometimes, in many ways the ones who make the best connection are those who wander in off the street, experience an impressive ceremony, and then go away again. Because they have made that same blessing connection, but without all the hangups of those who tend to go overboard and think they are now something special because they received this blessing and think they are now genuinely doing the practice.
Of course some rare individuals may make an immediate direct connection so they are actually practicing it as it should be. And for them, it may be that visualizing Chenrezig and reciting the mantra immediately evokes deep boundless compassion, and that it is also easy for them to drop the visualization and be left with just a direct connection to that compassion. Others may make a gentle and light connection with no hangups at all, like reading a poem.
But both of these I think are probably rare amongst Western practitioners.
There's also a tendency within Tibetan Buddhism for practitioners, the Tibetans included, to do many practices. There's a saying that the Indian Buddhists - back when India was a Buddhist country - would do one of these practices thoroughly, and realize them all. While the Tibetans would do many practices and realize none.
And - there is no need at all to receive any blessings or do any of these practices as a Tibetan Buddhist. Your teacher can't tell you that you have to do it. That's up to you.
Again some teachers, especially Westerners, may tell their students that they are their guru. But it's not for a teacher to say that. It's always the student's decision whether they want to take on a teacher as a guru, and then up to the teacher whether to accept them. Indeed even if a teacher does not accept their student, still they may be their guru. Because the word guru here is defined by whether the person teaching you is inspiring you along the path in a particular way. You can't make someone into a guru by just blindly following what they say, as some Westerners seem to think.
But if you meet someone who inspires you to compassion and wisdom in the way they teach and instruct you - then they are a true guru for you. If they aren't doing that, then they are not, no matter what they or you may think. So this idea of a guru is not limited to the Eastern religions but is something common to all religions and none. Just they don't tend to give it a word in the same way.
And a guru in this sense need not at all be a particularly wise or good or sensible person. May be. But you can be inspired along the path even by trees, birds, inanimate things. And you can be inspired by a human being with many flaws and who makes many mistakes, yet somehow they inspire you along the path of wisdom and compassion, and sometimes you can't really see how it happens but know it does.
What matters is whether they inspire you, not so much whether they are able to follow the path themselves. That's kind of irrelevant in a way. In this sense you can have many gurus.
Often an advanced practitioner in the Tibetan traditions may have a particular "root guru" who they follow, especially for instance those who do long multi-year retreats normally do (but don't have to) but not many Westerners are in that situation I think, though many think they are. And if they are, they hopefully have a teacher that can explain it properly to them.
The idea of a root guru is that they are someone who is not you, basically. Wh0 you also find inspiring. Deals with the issue that you may feel the path is your own doing, that you are not just relating to compassion and wisdom, but that somehow it is you yourself creating it. If you have that attitude, you can never connect to it properly in its boundless sense. Having someone else you follow as a root guru means it is not all "up to you" which makes it easier to connect to the unbounded compassion and wisdom, instead of to a pale constructed shadow of it that you make up yourself in your imagination.
A guru in this sense, even though they are telling you to do things as this "not you" inspiration - they can never ask you to do anything that goes against compassion or wisdom, or the dharma - the teachings of the Buddha. If they do, the student should ignore them. A good teacher will explain this. The whole thing of a root guru is intended to inspire wisdom and compassion and give you a direct connection to the path the Buddha followed, and that's its only purpose.
And the visualizations of Tibetan Buddhism - when they get to the intricate stages that Westerners often practice them with - instead of just relating directly in a simple inspiring way to the image and the mantra as ordinary folk not advanced practitioners can do or that person who comes off the street, goes through an impressive ceremony and never thinks much about it again. If related to in that light way, no problem. But the truly "advanced" practices are meant for students in some close guru / student relationship. And in that case your teacher would know you very well and is like a doctor prescribing some particular practice because he or she knows that you need it, perhaps some obstacle or difficulty arises in a long retreat for instance and the guru will tell you to do some particular practice to overcome it.
In that sense, the Westerners who do all these practices are a bit like ordinary folk taking insulin because they know it is good for diabetics, even though not diabetic themselves. It's not going to do much good if you don't need insulin, might even harm you. And the Tibetan Lamas are for that reason careful not to hand out the ones that are needed for especially intricate and difficult situations that arise during long retreats, but instead, ones that are more like placebos or coloured sweeties :). And if you are a Western practitioner, it's really silly to ask for more and more advanced intricate practices. It won't do you any good, not if they aren't the right ones for you.
And, again as my teacher taught me, these are all just medicines to address various issues that arise in the ordinary simple meditation that is common to all branches of Buddhism. If you relate well to that practice, the breathing meditation, and no problems arise, well there is no need for any of these visualizations :). The visualizations may help you to connect more quickly and directly to compassion, wisdom and other good qualities. But for some people, well, the ordinary sitting meditation also does that, or does so as much as they can connect at all.
Many of Buddha's disciples connected directly, immediately. In some cases just by hearing of his teachings by hearsay from someone else - according to the sutras. They didn't need these elaborate practices.
So, if you find you connect to meditation in that way - that it is inspiring to just meditate and that this is the only practice you want to do - and you are surrounded by others who seem dead keen on these intricate visualizations, well you can think of the Buddha and his first disciples as a reassurance that it's just fine to continue with the basic "beginner's meditation" as your main or only practice. Or think about the simple practices of Therevadhan and Zen Buddhism. And if you have a good teacher and you say this to him or her, he or she will surely encourage you to continue along this simpler path.
And you can still be inspired by the images and mantras of Tibetan Buddhism, in that light way, as like beautiful poems - if you do find them inspiring. No need to do the practices to connect to them in that way. And if you do approach it in this way, with this light approach, it will help if later on you do end up doing a long multi year retreat or whatever and need to do some of those practices for whatever reason - then you may be able to connect to them in a lighter way, so that they help with whatever issues arise without becoming a big heavy practice with hangups of its own which you then have to address as well.
Also just to add a bit about the idea of yidams in Tibetan Buddhism, from a comment to another answer here:
TIBETAN LAMAS ARE NOT DEITIES
Tibetan Lamas are not deities at all. That would be as absurd in Tibetan as in Zen Buddhism. Obviously they die, they get old, they are humans like everyone else.
When they say the Dalai Lama is an embodiment of Chenrezig, then that means, embodiment of compassion. That's what it means. To Tibetans who are inspired by him in that way, they see him as embodying compassion in a particularly pure form.
Not that he is that particular iconographical figure - which would be as absurd in Tibetan Buddhism as in Zen Buddhism - is obvious he doesn't look like that either :).
And Tibetans will say to each other "You are Chenrezig" if someone does something especially compassionate - recognizing that in doing so they are expressing their compassionate nature which we all share and which is shown iconographically by Chenrezig in Tibetan Buddhism. So the compassion they see in the Dalai Lama they also see in everyone else who shows compassion. Including of course non Buddhists.
And yes some particular Tibetan reincarnate Lamas have got associations with particular aspects of enlightenment - but that doesn't mean the Dalai Lama "is" compassion. And he like all of them will practice meditations associated with the boundless qualities - compassion, wisdom, love, sympathetic joy etc. As well as many others.
In most branches of Tibetan Buddhism as in Zen Buddhism and other mahayana traditions, they see us all as having the potential of a Buddha. That these qualities are ones that we all share, and indeed that we all actually have that boundless compassionate nature and wisdom without obstruction, if only we could just drop the confusions that hide it from us. And the confusions themselves which obscure our true nature from us, they say are insubstantial, nothing there at all, building up structures upon structures, but they also aren't even there really, all just confusions. Yet so hard to let go because we have clung to them so strongly, and that clinging itself is also just as insubstantial if only we could see it. Can't willfully let go though. To try hard to let go will just make it stronger. The letting go has to come somehow from outside of your ordinary sense of yourself which we struggle so much to maintain and support.
I think the words will be spoken by a human operating a telerobot on the surface :). Sorry, I'm not one of those who think that we should go to Mars as a "backup". I think it is a great place to ex...
(more)I think the words will be spoken by a human operating a telerobot on the surface :). Sorry, I'm not one of those who think that we should go to Mars as a "backup". I think it is a great place to explore but not a place to settle. It's far worse a place to settle than Antarctica or the sea bed or mountain tops or deserts. And we don't settle those places.
See for instance my Ten Reasons NOT To Live On Mars - Great Place To Explore and Why We Can't "Backup Earth" On Mars, The Moon, Or Anywhere Else In Our Solar System
Also I don't think humans will land on Mars, at least in the near future.
I think they will study it from orbit for planetary protection reasons. Even in Antarctica we are careful not to introduce surface life into lake Vostok.
One of the main scientific motivations for going to Mars is to search for life, or to find out what happens to a planet like Earth if life doesn't evolve there - but we now think there are possible habitats for present day life on Mars, at least probable enough to mark out special regions. We don't want to go to Mars just to find life we brought there ourselves. Especially in case of a hand landing.
Instead they would look at it from orbit. Explore from Earth first as we are doing now, then when we have the capability, explore from orbit.
So, then there is no particular moment that counts as arriving at Mars. But there would be a first moment when a human in orbit operates a rover on the surface directly by telerobotics. And what's more then everything would be recorded from the astronaut's telerobot point of view, in stereoscopic vision, haptic feedback so you can feel the rocks yourself - and you could do it with binaural sound also if there are any sounds to be heard on Mars. The wind perhaps and sounds of the machinery.
So - these would be videos that would surely be played over and over, first telepresence video from Mars surface. So it might well be marked by some occasion.
If so I'd be inclined to make wishes for the future, and try to turn it into an auspicious moment.
Something like:
"We are here for all mankind and for our beautiful home planet Earth. And we are here in a spirit of exploration and open ended discovery and also humility, aware that there is much that we don't yet know about our universe. We are a young species, with a long future in front of us, and may we use that well, and may we make good use of the discoveries we make on Mars."
The thing is, that if there are expansionist territory claiming ETs in our galaxy - it is very very unlikely they evolve at the exact moment of geological time as us.
Humans have had technology for...
(more)The thing is, that if there are expansionist territory claiming ETs in our galaxy - it is very very unlikely they evolve at the exact moment of geological time as us.
Humans have had technology for only a few centuries. And space technology for less than a century. It took us billions of years to evolve on Earth.
ETs also would live in a universe that is many billions of years old, and whatever their origins, there is nothing special about this particular moment of time. We haven't changed the habitability of the rest of the galaxy (not yet anyway) by evolving on Earth,
So, they could have evolved any time in the last many billions of years. It doesn't matter if they evolve on the surface of a neutron star, or planets around red dwarfs, or in subsurface oceans in tidally heated moons orbiting rogue planets or brown dwarfs, or whatever unusual habitat you posit - all those habitats have been around in one place or another in the galaxy for billions of years.
Then, at a moderate average speed of expansion of a tenth of light speed (assuming advanced technology surely that is not fast for them), it's only a few million years for an expansionist ET to colonize an entire galaxy, and it took billions of years for our civilization to evolve.
So if our planets were of interest to them for mining - they would already be here mining them and would have been here for millions of years. We'd see their mines on the planets already.
And our solar system is pristine as far as we can tell. There are no ET tracks or mines on the Moon or Mars or anywhere else we have looked at close up. On Mars especially we can photograph any of the planet at well sub meter scale.
If they have been here for millions of years then they are obviously non interventionist.
And obviously also there haven't been waves of colonization that have passed through our solar system and then the ETs responsible gone extinct. Because we'd see their tracks alsos.
I think it is much more likely that they are not here, and that any ETs in our galaxy are non expansionist.
As to why that is, I think myself that that's because any sensible ET will think ahead and look at the consequences of unrestricted colonizing of a galaxy. It would involve most of their population ending up well beyond any possibility of communication, and that would make it impossible to deal with the ones that through foolishness or intent end up trashing the galaxy. And what's more the fastest expanding most reckless members of their civilization would be the ones that would end up inhabiting all the stars in the galaxy.
I think any sensible ET will look at that scenario and decide they need to find a different future path. Setting off waves of colonization in the galaxy is at least as dangerous as setting of waves of self replicating robots - which is what many deal with as the nightmare scenario. But robots can be programmed and controlled. Humans or ETs can't - and they can also create the self replicating robots and program as they like, perhaps forgetting the reasons for safeguards to moderate their self replicating capabilities of their more sensible parent civilization.
There may be ways through this. But if so - if there is some ancient galaxy spanning civilization - it clearly is not one that claims territory throughout the galaxy and then mines all the planets. Because if it did that, they would already have mined our planets millions of years ago, probably billions of years ago.
It makes for fun science fiction. I like Star Trek, Star Wars, Doctor Who etc. But science fiction is not future or present day history. And often gets things wrong. Most science fiction either doesn't address this at all - or uses implausible ideas, such as the idea from Star Trek of the ancient hominids that somehow "programmed" ancient single cell lifeforms on many planets throughout the galaxy so that they all simultaneously evolve human like lifeforms with technology within a few centuries of each other billions of years into the future. That's a fun science fiction idea, but not very plausible :).
Why Didn't ETs, Or Self Replicating Machines, Colonize Our Solar System Millions Of Years Ago?
Okay this is just to give a rough idea. The ISS is a bit over 100 meters long, and Star Trek Enterprise is 289 meters ranging to 725 meters
So, you wouldn't be able to pick out ...
(more)Okay this is just to give a rough idea. The ISS is a bit over 100 meters long, and Star Trek Enterprise is 289 meters ranging to 725 meters
So, you wouldn't be able to pick out any detail with naked eye in the same orbit as the ISS. Except perhaps in ideal conditions, (see Alan Marble's answer to If the Starship Enterprise were in a "standard orbit" around Earth, how bright would it appear to the naked eye?), it would be just a bright star.
As for a Star Trek "standard orbit" - whatever height it is, it's a lot higher than the ISS.
This is a video of the ISS against the sun. Shows relative visual size of the ISS and the sun. And you can see a sun spot next to the ISS.
The original Star Trek Enterprise would a little under three times the length of the ISS.
Seems much larger on the inside - but the ISS though quite large in length and width, doesn't have much at all by way of habitat volume compared to Star Trek Enterprise - mainly solar panels and small corridors inside tubes packed with scientific equipment.
Brightness depends on its albedo. I'm not sure what the albedo of the Star Ship Enterprise is. It also depends on whether it is illuminated by the sun. As with the ISS you wouldn't see it at all when flying through the shadow of the Earth.
If we send humans to Mars then we'll almost certainly introduce Earth life, if there are any habitats there suitable for Earth life. And we wouldn't necessarily be able to tell if it was from Earth...
(more)If we send humans to Mars then we'll almost certainly introduce Earth life, if there are any habitats there suitable for Earth life. And we wouldn't necessarily be able to tell if it was from Earth or from Mars.
WOULD LIFE ON MARS BE RELATED TO EARTH
Robert Zubrin has said he thinks there is life on Mars and that it is related to Earth life. But that's just a view of one person, and not an astrobiologist either for that matter.
As so often in science, are many ideas about this.
Yes, it is now thought to be theoretically possible for Earth life to be transferred to Mars via meteorites and vice versa, this is just a theory, and has not been proved. We don't yet have a single example of a lifeform that got transferred between planets on a meteorite.
If this is possible, it was easiest in the early solar system when there was lots of debris exchanged between the planets.
The debris spends a minimum of a century in the harsh environment of space, and it then would land on a planet that though it may have habitats for life, is not the sea covered early Mars and harder for introduced life to gain a foothold.
We just don't know if Mars life will be related to Earth life or unrelated or a mixture of both.
TELLING LIFE APART IF IT IS BASED ON A DIFFERENT BIOCHEMISTRY
it's likely (not certain though) to be easy to tell - if it has no common ancestor - the chance it is the same is minute, probably. Could be mirror image life. Could have a different backbone, PNA, TNA, RNA only etc - and there are thousands of different molecules that could be use as alternate bases and on the face of it unlikely that alternatively evolved life uses exactly the same bases as DNA based life. Which would mean it can't even be DNA sequenced unless you know what bases it uses.
Some biologists have tried to argue that our DNA based life is so unique, so much better than any other option - that independently evolved life would have to follow the same pattern, there are many other options but would they be as good as DNA based life?
But I think many would say independently evolved life is likely to be different enough to be easy to distinguish.
TELLING IT APART IF IT HAS A COMMON ANCESTOR
But if it does have a common ancestor, that's when it gets really tricky. It could have a common ancestor at any point in evolutionary history, e.g. from before DNA (DNA is unlikely to have existed in the first lifeforms to evolve) perhaps RNA life only. Or from a few billion years ago, before development of the nucleus, or more modern life. The most likely time for the planets to share lifeforms is in the early solar system over three billion, maybe over four billion years ago.
And - the thing that complicates it most of all as I say in my answer is that first, most microbes are not DNA sequenced and entire phyla of archaea, because they can't be cultivated currently, are known only from a few fragments of DNA - that's just a few fragments representing an entire phylum with numerous species in it.
Also if it had a common origin even billions of years ago, then that means that gene transfer is possible. So after contamination with Earth life you end up with a mix of Earth and Mars DNA- some of the lifeforms would ber original Mars life, some Earth life, some Earth life that's taken up sequences from Mars life, and some Mars life that's taken up DNA sequences from Earth life. And that exchange can happen even with GTAs from dead microbes of either type.
So it's more tricky than you might think on first encounter with the question.
WOULD MARS LIFE SURVIVE AN ENCOUNTER WITH EARTH LIFE - OR VISE VERSA?
If Mars life has a radically different biochemistry, e.g. based on PNA or an early form of life with only RNA and no DNA, say, then yes, we'd be able to tell - that is if it survived the encounter with Earth life. It might not.
Some try to argue that Mars life would be better adapted than Earth life so would be sure to survive - but that's not true. For an example, rabbits are better adapted to Australia than many native marsupials.
SIMPLE EXAMPLE, EARLIER FORM OF LIFE ON MARS
An easy example there - it's quite possible that Mars only has early forms of life. Modern DNA based life just couldn't have evolved in a single jump from a chemical soup, with all its complex machinery. Particularly the Ribosome (which turns messenger RNA into proteins) and the complex DNA to RNA transcription machinery must have had simpler precursors. Also, the smallest size of cell all this could all fit into is about 200 nanometers across, coincidentally the size of the ultramicrobacteria the smallest lifeforms known, and coincidentally, also the diffraction limit for optical microscopy.
See Constraints on Size of a "Minimal Free-living Cell"
There is no way a functioning 200 nanometer diameter cell could spontaneously form from just a mix of non living chemicals, complete with Ribosome, gene transcription, DNA, messenger RNA, proteins, etc.
So must have been precursors. Perhaps about 40 nm across is one estimate, from that same workshop. And before that, non living but "almost alive" intermediaries, with one suggestion, an "RNA ocean" and another, autopoetic cells, where there is a kind of a metabolism inside a cell structure, but no exact replication yet, just approximate replication as the cell grows and then splits, or creates a daughter cell inside which escapes.
Mars has had less time for life to evolve than Earth, with its early sea drying up after a few hundred million years. That could mean that any lifeforms there are at an earlier stage in evolution. On the other hand it has had many episodes of freezing and melting, possibly with its much more elliptical orbit then at times the entire ocean froze over and melted again every two years - and much higher levels of cosmic radiation, and is different from Earth in many other ways - any of these could either accelerate evolution or slow it down. And life if evolved a second time on an Earth like world could either evolve more quickly or more slowly just by chance.
So there is no way of knowing if life on Mars is evolutionarily ahead or behind Earth life, or possibly followed a different direction.
If it is an early fragile form of life, the Earth life could just 'eat it up".
In this case it would be easy to tell it apart from Earth life, but by the time we are able to do a thorough investigation, there might not be any Mars life left.
CONTEST OF MORE ADVANCED LIFEFORMS - E.G. IF MARS OR EARTH LIFE IS BETTER AT PHOTOSYNTHESIS
Also, for more advanced life, there is no way of knowing in a contest between Earth and Mars life for the same habitat, which would win. For instance what if both planets have independently evolved photosynthetic lifeforms? That's well possible since Earth has at least three distinct main forms of photosynthesis, and one of them - the haloarchaea which use rhodopsin to convert light directly to energy without generating any byproducts such as oxygen or sulfur dioxide. The other one works by oxidising hydrogen sulfide or other reduced sulfur source. Anoxygenic photosynthesis
So what if Mars life has a fourth or fifth form of photosynthesis? It might be more efficient than Earth life, or it might be less so. Also Mars life might have a more or less efficient metabolism generally.
EFFECT OF MARS LIFE ON EARTH LIFE
This is mainly about the effect on Mars life - but since many say that Mars life couldn't possibly harm Earth life either - in the other direction, Mars life could also be harmful to Earth life too.
If related to Earth life - well legionnaires disease originated as a disease of amoeba - so it doesn't have to be a disease of humans or even animals to be harmful to us. Or to animals we depend on, or plants, or anything in our biosphere.
And if unrelated - it doesn't have to be biologically compatible to be harmful. Our bodies defend themselves by recognizing carbohydrates and peptides in the invading organisms. If they don't produce these chemicals because of some radically different biochemistry, our bodies won't know to defend against them. They could just grow in our lungs, sinuses, intestines etc, do whatever they do normally on Mars in these new environments, and our body would do nothing to stop them. And extremophiles often can also reproduce just fine in less harsh environments.
It's impossible to estimate a probability here. Most would say it is very low. But then on the other hand when scientists make new forms of artificial life in the laboratory, e.g. a recent experiment that proved inheritability of DNA with two extra bases added - they are very careful to make sure this new form of life can't reproduce in the wild. Because we don't know what would happen if some new microbes with 6 DNA bases instead of 4 were to start to spread in the wild. Most would assume that they would be harmuless and that the life with 4 bases would out compete them. But we don't want to do that experiment. It's the same with Mars life.
Or what if it is the Mars life that is more advanced biochemically than Earth life? More efficient metabolism say? We don't know what controls the speed of evolution and it might be that something about Mars conditions such as the extra radiation there, or the alternating wet then freezing conditions in early Mars accelerated the pace of evolution.
However for this question, we are more interested in whether the Earth life would make the Mars life extinct.
EARTH LIFE MAKING MARS LIFE EXTINCT
In a situation like the one with an earlier form of life on Mars, the Earth life could make Mars life extinct before we can study it thoroughly. Mars has a connected atmosphere, with global dust storms, and after a human landing, especially a crash landing, then the very hardy Earth spores, able to survive for millions of years on Earth will spread in the Mars dust, imbedded in dust grains so protected from UV light.
No matter where the crash happens, after a human hard landing, it seems likely that eventually some of those spores would reach the special regions where, on present understanding, Earth life compatible habitats are possible.
WHY WE CAN'T TELL WHETHER THE LIFE CAME FROM EARTH ON OUR PROBES VIA GENE SEQUENCING
Then - if Mars life is related to Earth life, then again it would be impossible for us to know if it came from human contamination or from Earth via meteorites. Most of Earth life is not sequenced, and entire phyla of archaea are only known by a few gene fragments. We'd recognize a gene sequence of a known Earth microbe, say Chroococcidiopsis , one of many Earth lifeforms likely to be able to survive on Mars. But we couldn't recognize microbial dark matter on Mars as of Earth origin by its gene sequence.
In any sample of microbes from an Earth environment, typically 99% of the microbial population have never been uncultivated in a laboratory, and even fewer are sequenced.
This is true even of the spacecraft assembly clean rooms, never mind human occupied spacecraft. Most of the microbes in those rooms, after they clean the spacecraft, are unknown to science. All we have are a few DNA fragments. That's not surprising as it is true of just about all habitats where you find life.
Current planetary protection is a matter of probabilities. Since we can't sterilize spacecraft 100% quite yet, we sterilize them as best we can to a point where we think there are so few microbes left that the probability they will contaminate Mars is minute. Carl Sagan's original target was a 1 in a thousand chance of contaminating Mars during the period of biological exploration - which we have barely started, haven't yet sent a single spacecraft to Mars since Viking capable of detecting past or present life because all the successful missions since then have focused mainly on habitability, including water and organics, not life detection. ExoMars in 2018 will be the first mission since Viking to have a possibility of unambiguous life detection on Mars - except of course for very obvious things like macro fossils.
UNKNOWN MICROBES TO BE EXPECTED ON A CONTAMINATED MARS
So if we found an unknown microbe from Mars, that would be expected, if it was contaminated by Earth life, as we find unknown microbes all the time in Earth habitats. Most of the microbes in any human occupied spacecraft would be unknown and unsequenced, especially the archaea. Basically unless it is in some way hazardous to humans, or beneficial to us, the chances are high that we have no idea of its gene sequence.
WHAT IF WE DO FIND RELATED LIFE - HOW CAN WE KNOW IT GOT THERE ON A HUMAN SPACECRAFT?
And then - what if we did spot a gene sequence for Chroococcidiopsis, say, on Mars? How do we know that it got there on a human spacecraft? It could have got there on a meteorite.
Last chance of that happening probably tens of millions of years ago as it needs a giant impact on Earth to send microbes to Mars. Most likely to happen in the early solar system billions of years ago. But that's an ancient stable lifeform on Earth.
And here also it has many subspecies, slight changes in its genes.
So if we find it on Mars, it might be similar, might be different, might be evolved in another direction.
ALMOST IDENTICAL LIFE OF GREAT INTEREST
If it is almost exactly the same, that would be a matter of great interest.
So - this doesn't mean it doesn't matter if you introduce the Earth variety of a microbe similar to one that is already on Mars.
We'd want to disentangle the two and find out if there are differences in the Mars variety and why, and how it has varied, and try to figure out when it last split off from the Earth variety. That would be much harder to do if the Mars populations become a mixture of individuals some from Earth and some native to Mars.
FINAL COMPLICATION - GENE TRANSFER AGENTS AND ORGANISMS SHARING GENES FROM BOTH MARS AND EARTH
And then a final complication. If Mars and Earth life is related, but perhaps split off from Earth life in the early solar system, three billion years ago or more - it may be closely enough related to share genes with Earth life. The mechanism of Gene transfer agents is an ancient one, and Earth microbes in totally unrelated phyla share DNA fragments readily and rapidly.
Even higher lifeforms do, including for instance an aphid which shares the genes for generation of carotene with a fungus, so at some point the gene fragment that creates carotene (the chemical that makes carrots red) got transferred from a fungus to the aphid - which it uses to turn its body red.
So after introducing Earth life to Mars, if the life is even remotely related, then you would end up not just with the Earth and Mars versions of the lifeforms - abut also with mixtures, in both directions, of gene sequences of the Earth and Mars microbes, especially of the archaea.
From time to time, you'd get higher lifeforms also incorporating Mars gene fragments as for the pea aphids. And the same also in the other direction if there are any Mars higher lifeforms at all - not totally ruled out, tiny multicellular plants, or even animal life as there are tiny Earth multicellular animals that are able to live their entire life cycle without access to oxygen (recent discovery a few years ago). They also could end up incorporating fragments of Earth DNA in them.
SENSITIVE SEARCHES FOR LIFE ON MARS ABLE TO DETECT A SINGLE AMINO ACID
And as well as that - our early searches for life would involve very sensitive searches for amino acids and other biosignatures. Some of these proposed instruments are so sensitive, they can detect a single molecule in a sample.
If you introduce Earth life, then searches for biosignatures are useless as they would only tell you that there is some form of life there, not whether it is Mars or Earth life.
SUMMARY - IN SHORT HUMANS CRASH LANDING ON MARS SERIOUSLY COMPROMISE THE SCIENCE WE CAN DO THERE
In short, if humans crash land on Mars, then that would seriously compromise the search for present day life on Mars. It would also cause problems for searches for past life too.
HUMANS IN MARS ORBIT OR ON PHOBOS OR DEIMOS - SAFEST APPROACH WITH BALLISTIC TRANSFER OR FLYBY
If we want to send humans to Mars, I think we should send them to Mars orbit or to the Mars moons of Phobos or Deimos - and do it in such a way as to make sure there is no chance of a hard landing. That is possible using a method called "ballistic transfer" where the spacecraft ends up in a distant orbit around Mars and then slowly spirals down perhaps using ion thrusters. There is no insertion burn needed at all.
The insertion burn is the riskiest part of any Mars capture scenario - because you need a precise length of burn to get into Mars capture orbit, and usually done close to Mars as it is more efficient deep in its gravity well. If it lasts just a bit too long, you could crash into Mars far from your intended location. So I think human missions to Mars should avoid insertion burns, both for safety of the crew, and for planetary protection reasons.
The ballistic transfer orbit is promising here, and NASA do plan to explore it in future Mars missions. It doesn't save much by way of fuel - is much less fuel to get into the distant orbit - but you then have to spiral down, and if you want to get as close, say, as the Mars moons, then there isn't much in it by way of fuel saving. But you can use the more efficient ion thrusters, and it is much safer.
Another good approach is to do a flyby of Mars. Because again there is no insertion burn. And you have all of the approach to Mars to do fine adjustment of trajectory - and can use trajectory biasing where the spacecraft is not directly aimed to hit Mars at launch, but to one side, then slowly nudge it into the right orbit. This is very safe - our spacecraft like Cassini are able to do extremely precise flybys using this approach.
ROBERT ZUBRIN'S DOUBLE ATHENA
One especially interesting idea here is Robert Zubrin's "Double Athena" which does one flyby of Mars to get into an orbit that almost parallels Mars, then after a year of study, another flyby takes you back to Earth. And it's a "free return" trajectory - once committed to it, you will come back to the vicinity of Earth even if you never make any more engine burns. So it's also very safe for human astronauts.
If we can sort out the many challenges to send humans away from Earth without resupply for the 700 days of the double Athena safely, I think it is a natural first human mission to Mars. And you'd do study of Mars via telepresence when close to the planet. Then you could use sun precessing Molniya type orbits for longer term study of Mars, and then after studying its moons remotely first to know more about them than we do now, could land humans there first.
BEFORE LANDING ON MARS MOONS - WHAT IMPACT DOES A HUMAN SETTLEMENT HAVE BY WAY OF TRASH AND HUMAN WASTES?
Though especially as they are tiny moons, need to have an idea of how much impact humans have on a place if they set up base there. By then we probably know about that from the Moon - do they inevitably surround their base with tons of trash and human wastes? If so maybe we should avoid sending human missions to those tiny moons quite yet.
WHY I CAN'T SEE COSPAR APPROVING A HUMAN LANDING ON MARS
I'm pretty sure that a human mission to the Mars surface would get surrounded by trash and human wastes if done with present day technology - even burying it wouldn't help. It would be too much to expect for them to keep all their trash and human wastes inside the habitats, and recycle the air without ever venting it if it goes bad.
And anyway the air would be vented every time they go out of the spaceship. We are nowhere near the level of technology needed to land a biohazard laboratory on Mars with the microbes in the human habitat as the hazard to be contained and kept away from Mars and the Mars duststorms.
But you don't need to think about that, since most are agreed there is a reasonably high chance of a crash landing in the early stages of an attempt ot send humans to Mars, and that is an immediate planetary protection fail.
For this reason, I can't see COSPAR approving a human mission to the Mars surface unless we first decide there is no longer any interest in the search for independently evolved life on Mars, or decide that present day habitats for life on Mars are impossible.
Some scientists seem optimistic that somehow a human mission to the Mars surface can be done consistent with planetary protection. But many others have said this is impossible. COSPAR workshops on this topic generally end with the conclusion that further research is needed.
I can't see how they can approve a human mission to the surface without relaxing planetary protection requirements, and don't see how there can be any scientific justification on present knowledge for doing that. If there was a human mission to Mars surface, then at some point a team of experts, exobiologists and so on, would need to decide that it is safe under the Outer Space Treaty and not in conflict with the science interests such as the search for life on Mars. I just can't see that happening any time soon.
HUMAN MISSION TO MARS ORBIT LIKE ISS ABOVE EARTH - ICE CAPS, CLOUDS ETC
And a human mission to Mars orbit or a flyby or perhaps to its Moons would be a very exciting mission thath would also engage the public. And better psychologically I think also, able to look out of their windows at another planet, not Earth, similar perspective to the ISS looking down on Earth but looking down on Mars, its ice caps, dust storms, thin wispy clouds that come and go, volcanoes etc.
EXPERIENCE SURFACE VIA TELEPRESENCE - EVEN BLUE SKY ON MARS IF YOU LIKE
Then using the likes of the Occulus Rift, perhaps even something like the Virtuix Omni to "walk" around on the surface, you could explore via telepresence with binocular vision and haptic feedback, for that matter you could also use binaural recording to hear sounds in 3D too - and all that with enhanced vision, sound, etc, e.g. digitally enhanced so the surface looks as if illuminated by bright Earth sunlight.
Even a blue sky if you prefer it that way :). That's just a matter of white balance, if exploring via telepresence, to make the Mars sky blue instead of a dingy muddy gray brown which I think would have psychological impact long term.
We are making lots of progress with telepresence. And remember that astronauts would use the very clumsy pressurized spacesuits, with hands especially so stiff that it's described like having your fingers in a garden hose. They are exhausting to wear and simple movements get tricky as you see for the ISS space walks. Also via telepresence you'd be able to control rovers anywhere over the surface of Mars whenever your spacecraft is overhead. Which you can arrange to happen, for instance, twice a day on opposite sides of Mars each time when the surface is fully illuminated, and with several hours of close up time each time - that's the HERRO sun precessing Molniya orbit scenario.
WHY THE SEARCH FOR LIFE MATTERS
Because of what we could learn for biology. We have only one example of life and it is amazingly intricate and complex. Just one other example would like adding an extra dimension to biology - also to nanotechnology. See also Will We Meet ET Microbes On Mars? Why We Should Care Deeply About Them - Like Tigers
Landed on the near side. But they orbited around to the far side. When the spaceship was around the far side of the Moon, radio transmission got cut off and was a bit of a tense moment until the ra...
(more)Landed on the near side. But they orbited around to the far side. When the spaceship was around the far side of the Moon, radio transmission got cut off and was a bit of a tense moment until the radio transmission resumed when they came around again.
They landed on the near side because
They landed at partial phase, not full phase. Because when the sun was directly overhead it would be too hot, a challenge for their cooling systems. While if they had landed at night locally, then it would be very cold, and in darkness.
The lunar "day" lasts for 14 Earth days so they had plenty of time to explore before the daytime sun got excessively hot for them.
This is the phase of the Moon as seen from Earth on the day of the Apollo 11 landing, from
Phase of the Moon on July 20, 1969, at 20:18 when the Apollo 11 astronauts landed on the Moon. http://tycho.usno.navy.mil/vphas...
As you can see neither near nor far side was dark at the time. It was quite close to half phase.
Of course no part of the Moon is in permanent darkness. But we always see the same side of it, and at full Moon we see it at full phase.
Actually we see a bit to either side because of lunar libration. As seen from Earth the Moon looks like this:
The far side of the Moon is however "radio dark" - it's the most sheltered place from terrestrial radio interference. You'd be shielded from it 24/7, and during times of full Moon, shielded from interference from the sun also. Much of the radio spectrum is hidden from our view on Earth because of terrestrial radio interference.
You could build simple telescopes on the far side, just trail wires across the surface of the Moon, to observe in low frequencies.
The Moon also has Peaks of (almost) eternal light at its poles, and just next to them, craters of eternal night. Amongst the coldest places in the inner solar system. Mercury also has similar craters of eternal night and may have ice there. And Deimos, the outermost of the two Martian moons also has permanently shadowed craters.
The Moon may have large quantities of ice - quite possibly in layers giving a detailed history of our solar system so of great scientific interest - and also - useful as a source of water. We have pretty good evidence suggesting large quantities of water ice at its poles.
So - though not a dark side, it does have permanently "dark patches" at its poles and almost permanently lit patches too..
If you could find or make a mini black hole - and drop it into the Moon, you could make the Moon into a black hole and it would be orbiting the Earth.
I don't recommend this - I'd be one of those ar...
(more)If you could find or make a mini black hole - and drop it into the Moon, you could make the Moon into a black hole and it would be orbiting the Earth.
I don't recommend this - I'd be one of those arguing that we keep the Moon :).
Coincidentally the Moon is just big enough so that it would absorb enough matter just from the three degree background radiation to counteract energy loss through Hawking radiation. So you wouldn't be in danger from explosive burst of Hawking Radiation.
In the vicinity of Earth it would easily swallow enough matter as it also has the energy from the sun and solar wind, so it should slowly grow. But does not endanger the Earth.
Naturally occurring mini black holes must be very rare as stars don't keep going out.
And they must also be hard to make by colliding particles - as we get hit all the time by high velocity cosmic radiation, far higher energy than any particles we can make ourselves in accelerators, or again neutron stars and the like would be suddenly vanishing as a result of the black holes created by collisions of particles into them.
A tiny black hole could be put in e.g. geostationary orbit. Depends how small it is. But a million metric ton black hole would last a couple of thousand years. It would however be very very hot and so imagine it would be a radiation hazard.
A lunar mass black hole however would be cold. It's 0.0123 Earth masses, so putting that in this calculator:
It would be only 0.1 mm in diameter. So you could easily lose track of it. Also, don't know for sure but I'd guess a black hole so tiny wouldn't have much of an accretion disk either. While being too small to emit much Hawking radiation.
It could be quite tricky to deal with. Maybe satellites orbiting it at a distance to warn space travellers of its presence.
Anyway this is purely theoretical - and I think if you do want a black hole anywhere, maybe asteroid belt is a better place than Earth orbit :). And I think we should keep our Moon as is rather than turn it into a black hole, if it were ever possible :).
And don't need to worry about our space being filled with such black holes - they are obviously so rare that they never come anywhere near stars, at least nobody yet has seen a star vanish as would happen if Moon sized black holes were commonplace.
All this assumes black holes exist, at all, not really proven yet. And if they emit Hawking radiation. And if those figures are correct.
Alternatives to black holes, other things that could form in cases of extreme gravity, include Planck Stars, "Grey holes" and Gravitars. Could Black Holes Give Birth to 'Planck Stars'? : DNews The Gravastar: An Alternative to Black Holes?
Bright object, better to spot with naked eye. It is over and gone in just a few minutes, from where I am in Scotland, 1 - 4 minutes. If it is so cloudy you can't see it with naked eye, not much cha...
(more)Bright object, better to spot with naked eye. It is over and gone in just a few minutes, from where I am in Scotland, 1 - 4 minutes. If it is so cloudy you can't see it with naked eye, not much chance to find it with binoculars.
You can find out when it will be visible from your location, and where to look and how high above the horizon here: Spot The Station
The best place to create an artificial planet is in orbit around Earth. If you make it in geostationary orbit, then Earth and its double will be tidally locked together, yet still have a 24 hour da...
(more)The best place to create an artificial planet is in orbit around Earth. If you make it in geostationary orbit, then Earth and its double will be tidally locked together, yet still have a 24 hour day each. And because they are tidally locked, they won't be disrupted by each other's gravity.
And that also deals with the problem that the planets are already about as tightly placed together as they can be. Each planet can pretty much clear its orbit of other objects including other planets. So if you added another planet as an Earth NEO somewhere between Earth and Mars or between Earth and Venus it would be like any other NEO, would hit one or other of the planets, the sun, or Jupiter or be ejected from the solar system within 20 million years.
But a planet in orbit around Earth is tightly bound and won't be lost in that way.
However if your reason for making a new planet is for living area - this is a very inefficient way of getting new space to live. After all most of the bulk of a planet is molten rock, and so not very habitable. Only its thin skin is habitable.
It makes much more sense to just build the skin of the planet and leave out the rest. Of course a hollow planet won't work very well.
But instead build lots of smaller Stanford Torus or O'Neil type habitats.
There is enough material in just the asteroid belt to build Stanford Torus habitats with surface area equal to a thousand planets the size of Earth. Though the mass is only 4% that of the Moon. Our Moon has enough mass for habitats equal to 25,000 planets in surface area. Most of that mass is used for radiation shielding.
Asteroid Resources Could Create Space Habs For Trillions; Land Area Of A Thousand Earths
None known so far. But we may have a contact binary, Pluto's tiny moon Kerberos
It was a big surprise. they thought it was dark - to the extent, was a puzzle how it could be so dark. But turns out i...
(more)None known so far. But we may have a contact binary, Pluto's tiny moon Kerberos
It was a big surprise. they thought it was dark - to the extent, was a puzzle how it could be so dark. But turns out it is bright, and probably a "contact binary" like comet 67P.
New Horizons image of Kerberos. Its brightness is puzzling as on the face of it, it would seem to imply that it is absurdly dense, far denser than an iron meteorite, many times denser than lead. So, that's denser even than platinum. Perhaps there is something not taken account of in the gravity calculations as the author of the original paper that predicted a dark Kerberos has suggested.
Anyway, whatever it is made of, it looks like a contact binary, so far.
Another moonlet of Pluto, Hydra is also unusual in shape, a bit like a contact binary:
ONE OF THE MOST PROMISING PLACES TO LOOK, RHEA
One promising candidate is Saturn's moon Rhea, its second largest moon and a long way from the planet, and at one time it was thought to have a ring system, with most of it within its Hill sphere. If this was true, it would be the only moon known with a ring system, which you could think of as lots of really tiny moonlets. This then would prove that in practice it is possible for moons with moonlets or rings to form.
Artist's impression of the rings of Rhea
And this shows where it is relative to the rings and the other moons - a long way out though not as far as Titan:
One idea for how they might form was an impact into Rhea which would throw up gas and solid particles, and then once the gas dispersed, the remaining particles would form the rings. Numerical simulations showed that these rings could be relatively long lived, last at least a million years. Rhea is prolate - elongated towards Saturn. But this seems to be no problem for ring formation in simulations.
See also Saturn's moon Rhea may have rings, too.
Sadly, later observations to try to confirm this found no evidence of any ring system. "A very sad story": No rings for Rhea after all
But the jury is still out as to whether it had a ring system in the past, because it has these intriguing blue marks all around its equator, which may be the marks of de-orbiting ring material:
The search also didn't rule out a ring of objects larger than 8 meters in diameter, but a ring like that would normally be accompanied by smaller objects created through collisions. Very small particles could be swept out by electromagnetic forces, but ones of intermediate size, meter and centimeter in scale, would be detected. They concluded that neither a ring of objects larger than the detection limit of their method, or smaller, was likely.
Also they didn't rule out any ring system. They just ruled out any ring system dense enough to explain the magnetospheric observations. It could still have a sparse ring system.
Our Moon could have moonlets, but the problem is its mascons which tug satellites one way and another. The satellites don't spiral down. Rather, they get more and less eccentric in a random way, which eventually leads to the orbit beccoming so eccentric it hits the Moon.
The Moon does have "frozen orbits" - only satellites inclined at particular angles are stable. And even then it is more often stability on a timescale of decades rather than millions of years. Though we couldn't detect a moonlet of only a few meters in diameter from Earth, it probably doesn't have any because of this stability issue.
Rhea seems the best bet so far I think.
There are many contact binary asteroids, and many asteroids with satellites, but so far no confirmed moons with moonlets or rings.
This is a science blog post I wrote about it before the Pluto flyby, updated with the results after it. I used the Pluto flyby as a hook for the article, asking as an open question, if any of its moons could have moonlets or rings. None of them did but one may be a contact binary so that's sort of the next best thing :).
Can Moons Have Moonlets? Or Rings? Moonlets Of Pluto's Moons?
Not directly. But apparently, if it exists, it helps explain the Scattered Disk population. This is a population of large objects that criss-cross the Kepler belt in very elliptical orbits and at ...
(more)Not directly. But apparently, if it exists, it helps explain the Scattered Disk population. This is a population of large objects that criss-cross the Kepler belt in very elliptical orbits and at their closest reach in to just beyond Neptune.
Then Neptune would divert some of them to Jupiter which would then divert some of those to Earth.
This is a link to the paper here: EVIDENCE FOR A DISTANT GIANT PLANET IN THE SOLAR SYSTEM, see their section 5. Scattered disk.
Please note though, it does not mean that we will suddenly start to get Sedna sized objects hitting Earth :).
We already know about the scattered disk. If we find that Planet 9 exists, nothing changes except we have a better idea how the scattered disk came to be the way it is.
These objects are not in orbits that go through the inner solar system. It would take a lot of delta v to do that and Planet X couldn't do that by itself.
Just as it would be impossible for Earth to send an asteroid in to the inner solar system inside of Mercury, almost impossible anyway. But Earth, over thousands of years and many flybys, could help send an asteroid to Venus, then Venus could eventually send it to Mercury and Mercury then could send it into the region between it and the sun, and turn it into a "vulcanoid" if they exist - asteroids orbiting between Mercury and the Sun.
So, in the same way, Planet X would help disturb these scattered disk objects from beyond Neptune into sufficiently elliptical orbits so they get within the reach of Neptune.
Neptune would then perturb them into orbits that take them within reach of Jupiter and Jupiter then brings them into the inner solar system. At least in the majority of cases, would be like that, if I understand this right.
The whole process would take many thousands of years. It's not like Planet X would lob an asteroid towards Earth and next year, or century, it arrives here.
Apart from anything else they would also be at widely varying inclinations and to have a reasonable chance of hitting Earth, have to be perturbed into the plane of the Earth's orbit by Jupiter to have a decent chance - or pretty close to it.
During this process, then there would be both big and small things sent into the inner solar system. But anything really big gets broken up by Jupiter into smaller pieces, maximum of 10 kilometers or so in diameter. That's through tidal disruption as they pass close to the giant planet.
Large objects can't hold themselves together under gravity when disrupted by the tidal effects of a close flyby of Jupiter - and get torn apart. The intermolecular forces that keep rocks together can only resist gravity if the object is small. We saw this with comet Shoemaker-Levy which broke up into lots of smaller comets because it was too large to resist the tidal effects of Jjupiter.
Comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 broke into lots of smaller pieces due to tidal disruption passing close to Jupiter. Big objects coming in from the outer solar system would get disrupted by the gravitational field of Jupiter in the same way at one or other of their frequent fly throughs of the inner solar system, and from the cratering record, as well as models, this happens before they can get into orbits that threaten the Earth, Mars, Mercury etc.
Much of it gets ejected from the solar system, hits Jupiter eventually or hits the sun, far larger targets than Earth. But some of what's left ends up on Earth crossing orbits. And all of those eventually get swept up within twenty million years - but not just by the Earth. Even once they become NEOs, they can then end up hitting any of the terrestrial planets, or their moons, or Jupiter, or the Sun or ejected from the solar system. But once they are in the inner solar system, in Earth crossing orbits, the clock is ticking. Within about 20 million years they are all gone, to be resupplied by more.
So - yes seems that Planet X does have a part to play in this process, if it exists that is. But it's like a bucket chain putting out a fire - it is just one of many links in the chain.
We know that it does not send intact Sedna sized objects into the inner solar system from the cratering record. There are no impact craters in the last 3 billion years throughout the inner solar system.
We can see that also from the meteorite crater record of the solar system.
There are no huge craters in the inner solar system younger than 3 billion years, out to Mars.
The Moon, Mercury, and Mars all have huge craters, but the youngest ones date from the late heavy bombardment between 3.8 and 3.5 billion years ago.
Craters on Mars
Impact from 3.8 billion years ago when large asteroid impacts were still common. 3D map of Mars - Hellas Basin on Mars
Craters on the Moon
The Aitken basin at the lunar South pole. It's believed to be over 3.8 billion years but the exact date is hard to pin down. Impact of an asteroid perhaps 170 km in diameter.
Craters on Mercury
Craters on Earth
Earth surely had impacts this large back then as well, but the evidence is probably long erased by continental drift.
The largest crater on the Earth may be the Vredefort Impact Structure in South Africa - this was about 300 km in diameter, when formed. The Sudbury basin is nearly as large, and there are three others in the 100 - 300 km range. See Largest craters ordered by size. These are thought to be the result of impactors of up to 10 or 15 km in diameter.
For the largest I can find, see this Impact of 23-mile-wide asteroid boiled Earth's oceans 3.26 billion years ago (and another link, and scientific paper). When it says it boiled the oceans there - doesn't mean it boiled them dry, just surface layers, and it would come nowhere near making all life extinct.
Even though the "late heavy bombardment" was over, there was a tail-end of not quite such huge impacts that continued, perhaps for another 700 million years. Ancient Asteroids Kept Pelting Earth in a "Late-Late" Heavy Bombardment, up to 2.5 billion years ago.
Craters on Venus
It's largest crater, Mead crater, is 280 km in diameter
Meade crater - the largest crater on Venus, comparable in size to the larger craters on Earth.
As you can see none of the planets or moons in the inner solar system has been hit by a Sedna sized impactor or even a 100 kilometer diameter impactor for over three billion years. It's true that for Venus we have only a few hundred million years of history - but no reason to suppose its cratering record is any different from the others.
It was a significant risk in the early solar system, but not any more.
The reason seems to be due to the influence of Jupiter. As you can see in this diagram it has a Hill Sphere - sphere of gravitational influence - that's nearly a couple of orders of magnitude larger than the Hill sphere of the terrestrial planets.
Hill sphere of the planets (log plot)
So any dwarf planet that gets deflected towards the inner solar system will be influenced by the Hill sphere of Jupiter within a few orbits, and the leading theory for why we have no large impact craters in the inner solar system is that Jupiter defends us by breaking them up, or sending them into the sun or sending them out of the solar system.
It also catches many of the smaller kilometer scaled ones and removes those threats directly. Jupiter gets hit by an object between 0.5 and 1 kilometer in diameter every decade.
The whole scenario gets played out over thousands of years, see Giant Comets and Mass Extinctions of life.
There are objects such as Chiron that have the potential to do this, but none of them show any signs of doing the first stage of getting broken up by Jupiter quite yet.
It may indeed happen, but you are talking about thousands of years from now. And yes, indirectly, thousands of years earlier, some of those comets may have got to Jupiter via Neptune and previously via planet X if this theory is correct that Planet X helps explain the scattered disk of comets.
But I think it's important to keep in mind that that's a very different thing from saying that this Planet X would be a threat for Earth.
For more about this, see Why This New "Planet X" Is No Threat To Earth :).
And for the truth about asteroid impacts - see my Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them article - the bit above about impact craters is an extract from there.
It's a bit complicated. But you can start with the Hill Sphere. A satellite would have to orbit inside the planet's Hill sphere , otherwise it would go into a separate orbit around the sun. It also...
(more)It's a bit complicated. But you can start with the Hill Sphere. A satellite would have to orbit inside the planet's Hill sphere , otherwise it would go into a separate orbit around the sun. It also has to be outside the planet's Roche limit or it would get torn to pieces by tidal forces from the planet.
Or - the moon can be closer than the Roche limit if the planet and its moon are both tidally locked to each other. But you can only have one moon like that, because in any other orbit the planet can't be tidally locked to the moon so the moon gets torn apart.
Then as well as that you have to consider drag forces on the planet from tidal forces. If the moon orbits the planet faster than its rotation period, it's going to be dragged inwards and will eventually hit the planet. That will be the fate of Phobos for instance, innermost moon of Pluto.
If it orbits the planet slower than its rotation period, it's safe from that, but will slowly spiral outwards. So long as the Hill sphere is reasonably large it can stay bound to the planet for a long time as happened to our Moon. And Mars's tiny moon Deimos is far enough away to spiral outwards. The further it spirals out, the less the tidal forces, so the slower the spiral. So that can last for billions of years. But in the opposite direction, the closer it spirals, the faster it spirals inwards, so generally it's not a very stable situation to orbit a planet faster than its rotation period.
That's why Venus doesn't have any moons. It spins so slowly, that any moon of any size would have hit it long ago. It could have tiny moons of a few meters across however as the moons spiral inwards more quickly the more massive they are, because the spiraling inwards is due to the tidal effects of the moon on the planet.
real-colour image of Venus taken by Mariner 10 processed from two filters.
Venus rotates retrograde spinning once every 243.025 days (relative to the stars). It orbits the sun once every 224.701 days. So its day is longer than its year. Is also retrograde.
It's impossible for a moon to orbit Venus as slowly as it spins. If it orbited that slowly it would be well outside its Hill sphere. So any moon of Venus would spiral inwards and eventually hit it - due to the tiny tides it raises in Venus. In detail - the tug of the moon raises a tide in Venus. But the moon gets ahead of the tide it just raised (because there's a slight delay in the planet responding to its gravitational tug), and so the tide tugs it towards Venus. Though the tide would be tiny for a distant small moon of Venus, still that's enough. Over millions of years it would spiral in faster and faster - one of those counterintuitive things that a tug backwards on a satellite causes it to go into a lower orbit and orbit more quickly - and it would soon hit the planet.
It would spiral in quickly if it is massive. A tiny moon of a few meters diameter would raise hardly any tide in Venus and could survive all the way to the present from the early solar system. There have been searches for tiny moons of Venus but none found yet - is still possible we might find a really really tiny one though.
Then as well as that you have the effects of the moons on each other. If you have several of them, then they will eventually fall into resonant orbits if close to the planet. So you can expect something like the 1 2 4 of the Jupiter planets for the resonances - so that means there isn't really any space for other moons of any size in between those because they wouldn't fit in nice resonances like that and would be distorted into other orbits, hit Jupiter or one of the other moons or be ejected.
But if you are further away from the planet, then there's plenty of space, so the moons have less gravitational tug on each other so can continue to orbit for a long time with no worry about them needing to fall into resonances, at least for billions of years.
And depends on the size of the moon. If they are really tiny ones of a few meters across then you can have thousands of them. And the tiniest ones aren't bothered by the Roche limit because they can hold together under the cohesive forces of rock, even ice, against the tidal disruption of the planet. You could think of Saturn's rings as consisting of numerous tiny satellites :). For such tiny ones, even Venus could in principle have many of them though it doesn't seem that it does.
I think those are the main things you'd need to look into.
So it depends most of all on the planet's mass. If the mass is large like Jupiter it has a huge hill sphere so plenty of space for extra moons.
Also depends on its rotation period. If it rotates reasonably quickly, then it is easy for its moons to orbit faster than the planet spins. But if it spins very slowly like Venus, then it is not likely to have moons of any size for long - maybe for a while in the first few million years of the solar system.
Then once you have those two conditions sorted, it's a matter of detailed modeling and looking to see what works by way of orbital resonances, and whether you can fit in any extra moons, for the close up moons. And this also depends a lot on the size of the moons and the planet, small moons around big planets are much easier than large moons around small planets.
If it's got a big hill sphere like Jupiter, you can put in lots of distant small moons no problem. If you have any really heavy moons it becomes a multi-body problem, e..g add a Jupiter sized moon to Jupiter or Earth sized to Earth - they would probably quickly be tidally locked to each other, no problem. But add extra moons to this system and it becomes complicated. The Pluto system orbits are very complex due to the need to orbit a double planet, Pluto and Charon.
Actually it's the other way around. With different centripetal forces, the paths the planets follow are different, in interesting ways. Rather than the orbits causing the centripetal force, it's th...
(more)Actually it's the other way around. With different centripetal forces, the paths the planets follow are different, in interesting ways. Rather than the orbits causing the centripetal force, it's the centripetal force that causes the orbits (according to Newton's theory anyway).
It stays in a fixed orbit because the centripetal force is just right to permit orbits. As you get closer to the sun it gets stronger but not too strong, as you go further away it gets weaker but not too weak.
It's an inverse square law, the force towards the sun reduces by four every time you double the distance from the sun.
An inverse cube law - goes down by 8 each time you double the distance - doesn't lead to orbits. Nor does a straightforward inverse law where the force halves each time you double the distance.
The special thing about the inverse square law is that a planet in a closed orbit after going around the sun returns to its starting point.
There is only one other law like that, Hooke's law, that the force increases linearly with the distance. Hooke's law is the force law you get in a string, which is why you can swing a ball around your head on an elastic string and it will follow a circular path, or more generally a closed path, as the force law is Hooke's, to first approximation anyway.
Newton's theorem of revolving orbits
You can try it out with this online app. It doesn't work in Chrome but works in Opera, Firefox and Internet Explorer. It will ask you to install the Unity web plugin if you haven't done this before.
go to Play Online! and click Create.
You get a system like this with inverse square.
Now pause it, go to load / save and load their Orbits example which has the same planets in the same starting positions as before.
Now go to Settings, third button from bottom.
Set the force law to say, r^-3, inverse cube and this is what you get.
All the inner planets quickly hit the sun, the one remaining goes to infinity.
To reset go to the load / save button and load the orbits example
Try r^-1 and hit the play button and you get this
The planets follow these clover pattern orbits that don't join up a bit like a spirograph. The innermost planet here follows a more or less circular orbit. But it doesn't join up.
If gravity worked like this, we could perhaps actually have habitable planets, but most would be in these clover like orbits.
Try Hooke's law like swinging a ball around on a perfectly elastic string and you get
This is the only other central force law (i.e. force is towards the sun and the force depends only on distance from the sun) with closed orbits.
Of course the planets also influence each other - these screen shots show the two body solution where you assume the central body is so heavy that the forces of the planets on each other is negligible, at least to a first approximation. Which is pretty much the case for our solar system. Planets do influence each other, but only on quite long timescales and not in dramatic ways in the present solar system which is pretty much in a stable configuration.
I couldn't enter text to save these examples online - perhaps incompatibility issue of some sort with Internet Explorer but it's easy to set them up yourself following these instructions hopefully.
The app is here: Gravity Simulator
This is all classical newtonian theory. You look at things a bit differently in General Relativity but I'm not expert on that. In General Relativity then the Earth follows its orbit because space time around the sun is curved - it's following the longest path through space-time (lots of people incorrectly say that in GR planets follow the shortest path - yes it's a geodesic but it's an unusual kind of geodesic following the longst rather than the shortest path in the space time metric of General Relativity). It takes as long as it can to get around the sun.
But others would be better explaining that.
There are. Mars is a little unusual compared to Earth. The daytime sky is reddish brown due to all the very fine dust suspended in it, This is almost the opposite of Earth. And the flip side of thi...
(more)There are. Mars is a little unusual compared to Earth. The daytime sky is reddish brown due to all the very fine dust suspended in it, This is almost the opposite of Earth. And the flip side of this is that it's sunsets are blue.
This is taken from Curiosity.
Curiosity also monitors sunspots using its mastcam, useful when it is the other side of the sun from Earth.
Tracking Sunspots from Mars, Summer 2015 (Animation)
And this is a self portrait of Curiosity with the sun
Not as low as 10 meters, no, because the surface of the Moon varies by much more than that. But you can get pretty low orbits.
Here for example is an orbit with initial average altitude of 124 km ...
(more)Not as low as 10 meters, no, because the surface of the Moon varies by much more than that. But you can get pretty low orbits.
Here for example is an orbit with initial average altitude of 124 km (semimajor axis 1861 km) and stable for 4000 days, or about ten years.
"We found frozen orbits with initial eccentricity equal to 0.02 that can be applied for missions of long period without the needs for doing orbit corrections for a period of very long time (larger than 4000 days). The initial orbit with appropriate characteristics can extend the time life and reduce maintenance costs."
It's a major challenge because of the Mascons - shown here in red - these make it difficult for a satellite to stay in orbit around the Moon long term, unless it is in a very special orbit.
"There are actually a number of 'frozen orbits' where a spacecraft can stay in a low lunar orbit indefinitely. They occur at four inclinations: 27º, 50º, 76º, and 86º"—the last one being nearly over the lunar poles."
-http://science.nasa.gov/science-...
You get lower orbits also. I'm not sure what is the lowest known stable orbit you can put a satellite into around the Moon, stable for more than a month or so.
There is an orbit in this paper, involving two satellites joined together with a 50 km tether in orbit around the Moon which take them to within 10 kilometers of the surface. http://oa.upm.es/33097/1/INVE_ME...
Some people could for sure. But these houses would be much more expensive to build than any house on Earth. Because you have to build them to hold in the atmosphere at many tons per square meter - ...
(more)Some people could for sure. But these houses would be much more expensive to build than any house on Earth. Because you have to build them to hold in the atmosphere at many tons per square meter - that's why they may be shaped like a dome, it's the strongest shape for containing pressure. Dome or very strong cylinders probably with rounded ends.
Like this, the ESA's plan for a Moon Village
Should we build a village on the Moon?
As you see in the artist's impressions - they also have to be covered with a few meters of regolith to keep out the solar storms (would be well beyond the influence of Earth's magnetic field which protects the ISS) - or to have storm shelters - but if you are living there long term you'd want the whole of the interior to be protected.
You would need full pressure spacesuits to go out of doors. Any outside repairs need to be done in spacesuits - or using remote controlled telepresence robots.
The habitat itself will probably have a limited lifetime before it has to be replaced by a new one. Which you have to ship from Earth.
They may be able to recycle their CO2 to make oxygen however by then, and grow their own food. If not you have to ship many tons from Earth every few months just to feed the astronauts.
So anyway - yes it's well possible that we have a few dozen, even a few hundred people on the Moon by then. I see it as a bit like a research station in Antarctica
It's an outpost, a place where scientists live while studying Antarctica, and tourists can visit sometimes also. May have tourist hotels on the Moon who knows.
But not a place where you'd set up home if you just want somewhere to live. The Moon and anywhere in space is far far more inhospitable than Antarctica. Mars is also. There are many places on Earth where we have research outposts and where adventurers visit, and also places that only see humans for a few weeks of each year - e.g. tops of mountains in the Himalayas - and many deserts - and like the sea bed. We don't colonize everywhere on Earth either. And I don't think myself that we are going to colonize space in the near future. It could happen in the distant future if we start to have settlements of tens of thousands of people in a big dome in space, city sized dome or underground caverns, because then you might get economies of scale. Maybe if you have a big dome large enough to hold ten thousand people, as the area to volume ratio gets less, as the dome gets larger, it might be easier to maintain per person. Maybe eventually when it gets large enough, the cost is spread out enough so that it doesn't cost too much per person and gets affordable as a place to live.
But I don't see that any time soon. And just as well. Because think what it would be like if we had extremist terrorists in space with space technology, able not just to fly airplanes at buildings, but spacecraft with velocities of kilometers per second? And bearing in mind that space habitats are far more fragile than any Earth building.
I think we need to make sure that however we explore and settle space, and maybe colonize it a bit, that we do it in a peaceful way. We don't want a future with battling space colonists living in deep underground bunkers to protect themselves from kilometers per second impacts.
For sure the first few hundred, even first few thousand, would be people with high ideals probably, and peaceful people also hopefully. But when you get to the first few million, if that is possible at all?
Perhaps it can be done safely. We have adopted various other technologies widely in our world that would lead to disaster if you were to transfer them back into the C 19, say.
But if so, to do that I think it's best not to rush it, not to have a big push to send lots of people into space right now. I think it's the pace of change that would be the main risk and if we do it slowly we should find a way, hopefully.
And there is nothing to say we have to colonize space. As we don't colonize the sea bed, or Antarctica or deserts or mountain tops, it's not like every place we could colonize, we have to colonize.
As for the argument that we have to go into space to escape destruction on Earth - well - it could easily be the opposite, that going into space if it means millions of people out there with high technology, including dictators, terrorists etc, it could be one of the things that leads to disaster for us in the future.
And there is nowhere in space as habitable for humans as Earth, and no disaster that could make Earth as uninhabitable as anywhere in space as to do that, you'd have to strip away all its atmosphere, and oceans. Nothing we can do would do that, and it's hard to beat the advantage of having a breathable air and being able to do light weight construction of houses that don' t have to hold in tons per square meter of pressure, and being able to walk out of doors without wearing a spacesuit :).
And yes resources in space may well be very useful on Earth. Or we may build thin film mirrors in space to concentrate sunlight and convert that to electrical power.
But that doesn't require us to colonize space with millions of settlers either. If we go into space to find resources to help the Earth, well at most maybe thousands or perhaps tens of thousands, but we won't need millions of space miners to do that.
A lot of it may well be done robotically, which is far safer for humans than doing it in spacesuits which can be damaged. There isn't any huge rush to send humans into space in large numbers.
Let's just go slowly one step at a time as we do when exploring Antarctica - a similar destination though space is far more difficult a place for humans to live than Antarctica.
See also my Why we can't backup Earth on Mars, the Moon or anywhere else in our solar system
Yes well part of the explanation. It's a lot of delta v to take a comet in the Oort cloud and send it all the way to the inner solar system. But yes it does seem that they think it could explain th...
(more)Yes well part of the explanation. It's a lot of delta v to take a comet in the Oort cloud and send it all the way to the inner solar system. But yes it does seem that they think it could explain the origin of the scattered disk, of objects that criss cross the Kuiper belt approaching close to Neptune. Then Neptune would take them the rest of the way into the inner solar system.
That is apart from Sedna etc - they are in resonant orbits so held in place by the new planet X if the theory is right.
This is a link to the paper here: EVIDENCE FOR A DISTANT GIANT PLANET IN THE SOLAR SYSTEM, see their section 5. Scattered disk.
This is a population of large objects that criss-cross the kepler belt in very elliptical orbits and at their closest reach in to just beyond Neptune.
Similarly I think it would be just about impossible for Earth to send an asteroid in to the inner solar system inside of Mercury - not in one go certainly and hard to do it even with many flybys.
But it could help send an asteroid to Venus, then Venus send it to Mercury and Mercury then could send it into the region between it and the sun, and turn it into a "vulcanoid" if they exist.
So, in the same way it is rather that Planet X would help disturb Kuiper belt objects into sufficiently elliptical orbits so they get within the reach of Neptune. Neptune would then perturb them into orbits that take them within reach of Jupiter and Jupiter then brings them into the inner solar system. At least in the majority of cases, would be like that, if I understand this right.
Still doesn't really explain how they get from the Oort cloud though. Just from the Kuiper belt. For the Oort cloud I think you'd need more planets further out or it could be passing stars that do it, disturbing the Oort cloud as they pass by.
For more about Planet X see:
The solar system is pretty crowded, so it would be quite hard to add an extra planet without disturbing the other planets. It's more or less as full of planets as it could be and keep them in nice ...
(more)The solar system is pretty crowded, so it would be quite hard to add an extra planet without disturbing the other planets. It's more or less as full of planets as it could be and keep them in nice stable circular orbits. So it's just as well it stays out there. Indeed there may well have been other planets that got ejected from the solar system, hit the other planets etc. May even have ejected gas giants. What we see may be the ones that are left at the end of that process.
The whole thing quietened down after a few hundred million years. Finally ending after the "late heavy bombardment" about 3.8 billion years ago with some big objects still left for a while after that. But by 3 billion years ago the solar system had quietened down and was much as it is now.
In other words, its opportunity to come into the inner solar system was well over three billion years ago.
If you wanted to do it now, well I think you could try making it into a double planet or a moon of one of the other planets, that would be the best bet. E.g. try to make it a new huge moon of Jupiter, and sneak it in quickly past the orbits of Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. With mega technology perhaps you could do that?? I think that would be more likely to succeed than trying to make it into a new planet in its own right. It wouldn't add that much to the mass of Jupiter, so the combination of Jupiter with an ice giant moon like this might still be a stable solar system (you'd need to do a model to check this).
But that's assuming some vast amount of energy available. There are ideas for shifting Earth's orbit by using an asteroid in flybys of Earth and Jupiter. I don't know if a similar approach could move this planet using e.g. dwarf planets instead of asteroids to move it? The idea was just to move Earth out a little, over billions of years. This would be a far bigger task than that, larger object, much larger change in its orbit.
Also, that's not yet in the habitable zone.
To put it in the habitable zone I think your best bet is to put it in Earth's orbit and then have Earth, Mars, Venus and Mercury all orbiting it. That way you have four planets all in the habitable zone. And though it would be quite a challenge to have those four planets orbiting each other, it should be easier to have them all orbiting a planet much larger than any.
Whether that's a stable solar system or not I don't know. But you could try it out in universe sandbox and see what happens to get a first idea, of whether it is possible.
I wouldn't want to limit what technological future beings on Earth could do, perhaps a million years of future technology development from now. Maybe they would be able to do such things. I think well beyond us, probably, even given millions of years to do it.
Incidentally their hypothesis about where it came from is that it came from closer to the solar system originally, got ejected from the solar system, but because this happened early on when the solar system was still forming, it got slowed down by the gas and dust and ended up in this orbit instead of leaving the solar system already. If that's true (and if the planet exists at all of course) then it actually started off closer to the sun and was ejected and ended up where it is now.
THE NAME "PLANET NINE"
Just to add - it's of course natural to call it "planet nine" as that's what everyone calls it. But I think that's a poor name for a planet X myself. Why not call it "Planet X"?
Or find some new name, like Nemesis and Tyche as was done for previous planet X candidates. None of them were called Planet + some number.
There is no way that we can know it will be planet 9. What if other planets are found closer to the sun? There's another proposed "Planet X" which orbits between 100 and 200 au from the sun to explain the "Kuiper cliff" which if it exists would be Mars or Earth sized. So what if we find this supposed "planet 9" and then find that planet?
Or what if it is not a single planet, but several in similar orbits?
And what if someone now comes up with another planet X. This is only the last of many, by no means proved, it may well fall into the dust of history and lead to another planet X. Do we call the next one "planet 10"? Or should we number the planet X candidates sequentially, so Pluto is "Planet X 1", or maybe even Neptune is "Planet X 1", Pluto is "Planet X 2" - in a system like that it might well be "Planet X 9" but you'd get disagreements about how many candidate planet X's we've had so far that are distinctive enough to need a new number.
If it exists, it's close to a borderline planet already according to the IAU definition Robert Walker's answer to Is it clear whether the putative "ninth planet" has cleared its neighbourhood?
Or, what if the IAU changes its definition again, as many astronomers are asking it to do - to call Ceres and Pluto both planets as well - then it would become planet 11 or maybe some much higher number, to take account of Sedna etc and Neptune would be planet 9.
And it's a silly name I think, like a name from a sci. fi. story, we never call Earth "Planet 3" :).
I'm not suggesting you change the title of your question :). I'd call it "Planet X" but people know what you mean if you say "planet nine" so it's become something of a "fait accomplis". But I do think it is a very silly name for a planet X candidate.
See also my
It's in a stable orbit already. The solar system is pretty crowded, so it would be quite hard to add an extra planet without disturbing the other planets. It's more or less as full of planets as it...
(more)It's in a stable orbit already. The solar system is pretty crowded, so it would be quite hard to add an extra planet without disturbing the other planets. It's more or less as full of planets as it could be and keep them in nice stable circular orbits. So it's just as well it stays out there. Indeed there may well have been other planets that got ejected from the solar system, hit the other planets etc. May even have ejected gas giants. What we see may be the ones that are left at the end of that process.
The whole thing quietened down after a few hundred million years. Finally ending after the "late heavy bombardment" about 3.8 billion years ago with some big objects still left for a while after that. But by 3 billion years ago the solar system had quietened down and was much as it is now.
In other words, its opportunity to come into the inner solar system was well over three billion years ago. If you wanted to do it now, well I think you could try making it into a double planet or a moon of one of the other planets, that would be the best bet. E.g. try to make it a new huge moon of Jupiter, and sneak it in quickly past the orbits of Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. With mega technology perhaps you could do that?? I think that would be more likely to succeed than trying to make it into a new planet in its own right. It wouldn't add that much to the mass of Jupiter, so the combination of Jupiter with an ice giant moon like this might still be a stable solar system (you'd need to do a model to check this).
But that's assuming some vast amount of energy available. There are ideas for shifting Earth's orbit by using an asteroid in flybys of Earth and Jupiter. I don't know if a similar approach could move this planet using e.g. dwarf planets instead of asteroids to move it? The idea was just to move Earth out a little, over billions of years. This would be a far bigger task than that, larger object, much larger change in its orbit.
Incidentally their hypothesis about where it came from is that it came from closer to the solar system originally, got ejected from the solar system, but because this happened early on when the solar system was still forming, it got slowed down by the gas and dust and ended up in this orbit instead of leaving the solar system already. If that's true (and if the planet exists at all of course) then it actually started off closer to the sun and was ejected and ended up where it is now.
No, can't be a former planet, it's too tiny. Total mass is 4% of the mass of our Moon.
It's thought to be what's left over from the early solar system, and disturbed by Jup...
(more)No, can't be a former planet, it's too tiny. Total mass is 4% of the mass of our Moon.
It's thought to be what's left over from the early solar system, and disturbed by Jupiter, wasn't possible for a large planet to form.
However there was enough matter for one dwarf planet, Ceres, which is massive enough to be in hydrostatic equilibrium.
It's next largest asteroid 4 Vesta is in between an asteroid and a dwarf planet.
Both are thought to have a differentiated interior like a planet. Ceres may even have a "muddy ocean" beneath its surface and is a possible candidate for present day life. Enough so, that the Dawn spacecraft will be left in a long term orbit around Ceres instead of crashed onto its surface as originally planned, to make sure it doesn't contaminate it with Earth life.
The origin of some of the asteroids is somewhat mysterious. Ceres particularly may have too much ice in its composition to have originated there; if so, it may have came in from the outer solar system beyond Jupiter. There's a strange event called the Late Heavy Bombardment very early on but after our Moon formed. There are various theories for why it happened, but it caused the big craters on the Moon and other terrestrial planets. Seems to be objects that were in some way brought into the inner solar system from further out. So this is something that happens.
"In the "Nice model,” an enormous quantity of KBOs are injected into the outer asteroid belt, >2.6 AU (Levison et al., submitted). Most are dynamically lost or collisionally destroyed, yet the remnant of this embedded population may be the source of the D-type asteroids. This raises the issue of whether larger KBOs were also embedded, and what they would look like today (and can we tell?). It is interesting to note that Ceres, the largest asteroid, is not that different from what we imagine dwarf planet KBOs to be like: differentiated, ice-rich (0.72-0.77 anhydrous rock by mass), and possessing unusual surface chemistry"
On The Possibility Of Large KBOs Being Injected Into The Outer Asteroid Belt
And in this paper the author speculates that Ceres was a moon of a planet which he calls Yurus which came into the inner solar system from the asteroid belt in the very early solar system - and Yurus itself was ejected, leaving it's moon Ceres behind.
http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/paper...
Or perhaps it formed where it is but got more ice than expected? After all the Earth got a lot more water than you'd expect from its location close to the sun. We still aren't sure how Earth managed to get quite so much water - the observations of comet 67p showed that our water didn't come from comets similar to comet 67p because the hydrogen to deuterium ratio is wrong - but that's just one comet. It's an open field for investigation to try to figure out how Earth got its water.
In short, it's possible that some of the asteroids could have come from beyond Jupiter. Or else that the ice in some of the asteroids did if not the entire asteroid.
Not likely that an entire large asteroid like Ceres could be captured into the asteroid belt in the current solar system but in the very early solar system with lots of debris, and many collisions, it would be easier to capture a large asteroid inside of Jupiter, and though most would be destroyed or ejected, some could survive just because there was so much stuff passing through the inner solar system in those days.
Not that clear. It is close to the borderline between a planet and a non planet according to the IAU definition. Somewhere between Mars, the weakest of the planets at clearing out its orbit, and C...
(more)Not that clear. It is close to the borderline between a planet and a non planet according to the IAU definition. Somewhere between Mars, the weakest of the planets at clearing out its orbit, and Ceres, the strongest of the "dwarf planets" according to the IAU definition.
I've just been calculating Margot's Π - the various measures are all are in pretty good agreement in the discrimination between planets and non planets - and that's the only one that's easy to calculate. Very easy.
I'll indent the calculations so they are easy to skip.
With the planet measured in Earth masses, then m is 10. M is 1 of course as the sun is one solar mass. a is 700 au. And k for those units is 833. So the formula works out as
833*10/((700^(9/8) = 5.247
Where the value needs to be greater than 1 to "clear the neighboruhood".
So Margot's Π for the new planet is around 5.25.
By comparision Margot's discriminant for Mars is 54, the most weakly clearing of all the recognized planets. And of Mercury is 140.
An Earth mass planet in a similar orbit would have Margot discriminant a tenth of that, of 0.5247 and so would not be a planet according to Margot's discriminant.
Also a 10 Earth mass planet in an orbit with semi major axis 4000 au would not count as a planet because its Margot discriminant is 0.7385.
So it's a pretty close thing. Almost "too close to call" until we find out more. It might depend which discriminant you use.
Then, Soter's µ since it's based on empirical measurements, with a borderline case like this one might be, it might easily be years or decades before you have done a sufficiently complete inventory of the matter for the region it orbits through to decide whether it's a planet or not according to the definition.
SIMILAR MOTIVATIONS
They are all based on similar physical ideas so based on a system in equilibrium like ours, then you'd expect reasonable agreement.
NOT SWEEPING TOTALLY CLEAN
It's not a matter of sweeping it completely clean.
In case of Earth, then anything in an orbit similar to ours gets cleared out within about twenty million years. Though there are numerous near Earth asteroids, every single one will get cleared out, either thrown towards the sun, Jupiter, ejected from the solar system or hit Earth, the Moon, Venus or Mars, or some such. But twenty million years is a long time and only a percentage of them will ever hit Earth.This near Earth region is getting constantly supplied by comets or asteroids or it would get completely cleared out.
COMPARISION TABLE OF THE VARIOUS MEASURES (FROM WIKIPEDIA)
In the table here Mars is worst of all the planets for clearing its orbit - and it gets hit by about ten times as many meteorites as Earth. Still there's quite a big jump down to Ceres, next best after Mars.
If this planet exists it will go somewhere between Mars and Ceres in that table.
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN WE FIND PLANETS "IN THE GAP" BETWEEN CERES AND NEPTUNE?
Suppose for instance they don't find just one Neptune sized planet, but several Earth sized objects in resonant orbits? Are they planets?
Or they find that the Neptune as expected, but also an Earth mass object in a resonant orbit of some kind. Is the Earth mass object a planet?
And what if some of the discriminants make it a planet and some don't?
PLANETS IN HYDROSTATIC EQUILIBRIUM
I'm very strongly in favour of calling anything a planet if it is in hydrostatic equilibrium under gravity. Easy thing, you can tell that it's a planet as soon as you know its shape.
This doesn't just mean "nearly round" planets as in the IAU definition but also triaxial ellipsoids like Haumea, and over contact binaries if we find those as well, rocheworld scenarios. They'd all be planets because they are in hydrostatic equilibrium.
GIANTS AND DWARFS - AND UBER PLANETS
And then our planet has giant planets like Jupiter, and Neptune, dwarf planets like Earth and Mercury and sub dwarf planets like Ceres, Pluto, Sedna etc.
And then can refer to uber and unter planets for the clearing out the orbit, as Alan Stern suggested in his original paper. Or any other names, but just use a separate dedicated name for this concept.
That way we can have dwarf planets that are either uber or unter - clear or don't cleaer, and giant planets can be also like a Venn diagram.
And then we can subdivide the planets up as we like - giant, dwarf, subdwarf, sub sub dwarf, and slice them any way we like without having to worry about whether they are clearing their neighbourhood or not.
Then we can use other words for asteroids on borderline between asteroids and dwarf (or sub dwarf) planets, such as planetoids, say.
EXAMPLES
So Vesta for instance would be a planetoid.
Ceres would be a dwarf unter planet.
Mercury is a dwarf uber planet
Pluto is a dwarf unter planet. So is Sedna and all the other dwarf planets discovered recently.
Neptune is a giant uber planet
SO THEN IT CAN BE A GIANT PLANET WHETHER IT IS UBER OR UNTER
And this new object will be a giant planet (not a dwarf, and definitely a planet). We'll be able to say this right away just as soon as we know its mass.
But we might not be sure for some time whether it is uber or unter.
And won't have this absurd (seems to me) situation where a planet has to be referred to as a "dwarf planet" and not a planet if it doesn't clear its neighbourhood. That has nothing to do with the way "dwarf" is usually understood and it doesn't help with understanding, its unintuitive. Surely whether a planet is a dwarf or not has to depend on its mass?
And even more so when you then go on to say that it is also not a planet. How can a dwarf planet not be a planet?
With the IAU definition you have tiny Mercury which counts as a planet - and you could have a planet the size of Jupiter that has to be called a dwarf planet if it is way out in the Oort cloud. and in that situation then the Jupiter would be a dwarf planet and not a planet, and the Mercury would be a proper planet and not a dwarf.!
It works so far mainly because the planets so far discovered that clear their neighbourhood also happen to be large and the ones that don't are all small.
THE NAME "PLANET NINE"
Just to add - it's of course natural to call it "planet nine" as that's what everyone calls it. But I think that's a poor name for a planet X myself. Why not call it "Plane t X".
No way that we can know it will be planet 9. What if other planets are found closer to eh sun? What if the IAU changes its definition again, as many astronomers are asking it to do - then it would become planet 11 or maybe some much higher number, to take account of Sedna etc and Neptune would be planet 9. And no other planets are known by their numbers.
See also my
As someone who is keen on astronomy, I am of course keen on the Thirty Meter telescope myself. And I've heard those arguments of the astronomers, about how it is an ideal site for astronomy, about ...
(more)As someone who is keen on astronomy, I am of course keen on the Thirty Meter telescope myself. And I've heard those arguments of the astronomers, about how it is an ideal site for astronomy, about the value of the astronomy that can be done with this telescope and so on. But I've also heard the other side too.
There are many telescopes on the summit already, so it's not like they are saying not to build telescopes at all up there.
SIZE OF THE PROPOSED TELESCOPE
What you might not realize at first is quite how huge it is - it's difficult to get a sense of scale from the images:
It's higher than the Niagara falls.
It's the same height as as seventeen story skyscraper. The same height as the Hill Building in Durham, North Carolina.
JS051 - Historic Postcards of Durham - The North Carolina Collection - Durham County Library
Except, that unlike a skyscraper, it's wide as well, wider than it is high.
And I felt that the native Hawaiians that were talking had a point, and then thought about how I'd feel myself if someone was going to build a seventeen story building on top of Ben Nevis.
See those buildings at the bottom, they are several stories high. But a seventeen story building would be much bigger than those. Put the 30 meter telescope on the summit and it would be very obvious from miles away.
Mount Kea is part of the distinctive silhouette of Hawaii. The other side of the argument talked about how it was the landmark they used to get back to Hawaii from their past long sea journeys. They talk about how it changes the appearance of the mountain.
Yes, it's 13,000 feet high. But the telescope dome is 180 feet high and 217 feet wide. For instance if you had a photo of Mount Kea at 1080 p (HD) then it's
180*1080/13000 = 14 pixels high
217*1080/13000 = 18 pixels wide
MOCKUP JUST TO SHOW THE SCALE OF THE TELESCOPE COMPARED TO THE MOUNTAIN
This is a mockup I made by just adding an appropriately resized copy of a computer rendering of the telescope to an HD photograph of Mauna Kea. It's more like 10 pixels because of the space above and below the mountain in this photograph. And I haven't taken account of foreshortening. This is its height in pixels if you took a photo of the mountain from a long way away and it took up the same vertical area of the screen as in this photo - I couldn't find a creative commons photograph of Mauna Kea from the distance. And, I haven't tried to put it exactly in the intended location for it, it's just to show the scale of it, not its location.
Still, it's enough to give a rough first idea.
Detail of Photo of Mauna Kea by Prayitno, from Flikr. Combined with computer rendering from the Thirty Meter Telescope website resized appropriately.
The dark blip at the top of the mountain shows roughly how big the TMT would be. Easy to see from a long distance away.
Here is a zoom in on it as that image is reproduced rather low res here
It might be quite noticeable from out at sea. And you can imagine that close up, if you climb the mountain, it would totally dominate the summit.
TELESCOPE BELOW THE SUMMIT
The plan is to set it back from the summit, so that reduces the impact quite a bit. As measured from its base it is far higher than any of the existing telescopes, but the top of it is going to be well below the top of the other telescopes. It's base is 150 meters below the summit ridge, and it is situated on the northern plateau. As a result it would be visible from only 14% of the main island.
The height of the existing domes are:
Subaru: 141 feet high, 13 stories.
Keck 111 feet high, 10 stories,
Gemini North 151 feet high, 14 stories.
TMT design is 180 feet high, or getting on for 17 stories. And wider too in proportion.
I got those figures from table 3.6 of the Environment impact survey.
Here is a link to convert feet to stories - it is just a rough idea as it depends on what height you say a story is, so you get different figures for the heights of these buildings in stories.
Here are some renderings:
SYMPATHETIC ASTRONOMERS
Mike Wong is sympathetic to the Hawaiians case, particularly some of the past behaviour of astronomers there, though he says others have shown respect.
He writes
"I would rather see the telescope built at an inferior site, rather than built without respect for native values as previous observatories were. But much has changed since observatories began popping up on Mauna Kea. No new observatories will ever be placed atop the summit or on/near sacred pu'u. TMT's construction/operations plan resulted from a process of respectful dialog, and this process also deserves respect."
Here is another rendering
NEED TO ASSUME GOOD FAITH
I don't think it helps for the astronomers to accuse the native Hawaiians of bad faith here. That's part of the very attitude that caused the problems in the past indeed.
I think it's enough to just say that it is indeed a big building and anywhere in the world something as large as that on top of a mountain would be bound to involve a huge amount of public debate with people divided on whether to build it or not. For the Hawaiians their ideas of Mauna Kea as sacred are part of the mix, and their past history of the polynesian voyagers coming back to Hawaii on long voyages - which is probably why they thought of it as especially sacred originally. But focusing too much on that may not be helpful for the astronomers who don't share their religious ideas. I think it's enough to just acknowledge that it is a huge building and such buildings are likely to be controversial.
And though I'm keen on astronomy and express my views, I have friends and relatives who are not especially interested in astronomy at all.
And I feel that science shouldn't just kind of steamroller over other people's views. So I also feel it is very important to uphold those who are not so keen on science because they have a perspective too, and they can help keep us come to a more balanced view on those things.
Keen though I am on astronomy and science, that doesn't mean I think science has a trump card that means it has to win every argument :).
If I was living in Hawaii I can well imagine being excited about the telescope, wanting to go up and see how they are going with the construction, and keen for first light and wanting such a prestigious and forward looking telescope on my mountain. Same here if such a big telescope was proposed to be built on Ben Nevis, I'd probably be mustering arguments for it, and talking about how they used to have an observatory on Ben Nevis in the past etc. But I also have a strong feeling for mountains too. Not that I think they are sacred particularly. But I'm a keen hill walker, have been in the past especially more so, and some rock climbing, and there is something special about mountains I feel. So there's that side to it too. So I have some sympathy from that point of view also.
Hope this helps. And if there was more meeting of the two sides and appreciation and especially if they followed due process carefully and scrupulously, I think maybe they can find a solution that works for both. Perhaps to do with the location on the mountain, perhaps some way it can be visually less intrusive - they've already moved it from the crater rim but perhaps more can be done in that direction, it doesn't have to be right at the very top to be still an excellent site for astronomy.
And they have every right to reject the project if they decide it is not suitable, just as we would here in the UK to reject a project to build a similarly sized telescope on the summit of Ben Nevis.
See The Heart of the Hawaiian Peoples’ Arguments against the Telescope on Mauna Kea
"Enter the TMT. Now to say Hawaiians are opposed to technology or science is simply wrong. Hawaiians have a long and illustrious tradition of adopting Western technologies. King Kalākaua had electricity in his palace before the White House had it. And he is quoted as follows:
" “It will afford me unfeigned satisfaction if my kingdom can add its quota toward the successful accomplishment of the most important astronomical observation of the present century and assist, however humbly, the enlightened nations of the earth in these costly enterprises…” ~ King Kalākaua, September 1874 as quoted in the Pacific Commercial Advertiser, upon arrival of a British expedition of astronomers to Hawaii
"But that was when Hawaiians were in control of their own country, and before the devastating impacts of American rule. Now many are saying “enough.” The TMT, while not being built on one of the sacred puʻu at the summit, will be a much larger and more extensive project than any before, with a building 18 stories tall and an impact on five acres of summit. The project has gone through extensive reviews for its environmental and cultural impacts, and was originally supported by the Office of Hawaiian Affairs (OHA) in 2009. But in an April 12 poll by the Honolulu Star-Advertiser, 61 percent of respondents said OHA should oppose the TMT. As OHA Trustee Peter Apo points out, “Hawaiians are joined by ecological and environmental watchdog constituencies with natural resource management concerns about stewardship issues in the state’s management of the geo-cultural landscape of plants, native birds, rare insects, historic sites, and so forth.” "
ALTERNATIVE SITE OUTSIDE HAWAII
Sometimes it may seem as if there is no other possible site - that by preventing it from being built on Hawaii they are setting science back a generation or some such. But there are other sites. And there's a larger telescope going to be built in the Atacama desert too.
European Extremely Large Telescope - you can see how huge it is by the little person in the rendering. Is under construction in the Atacama desert and first light is expected in 2024.
That's in the southern hemisphere so the astronomers would prefer the thirty meter telescope to be built in the northern hemisphere to complement it.
Anyway, if the TMT can't be built on Hawaii, there's always the Mexico site San Pedro Mártir which has pretty good seeing conditions also, one of only a handful of sites suitable for it world wide, with no objections there as far as I know.
The 1972 0.84m Telescope-SanPedroMartir Observatory-BajaCalifornia-Mexico
And the Mexican site is actually further north than Hawaii, at 31.0456 degrees north, instead of 19.8330 degrees north, so it actually has advantages for sky coverage for the northern hemisphere. For details, see TMT candidate sites
For more about this site: National Astronomical Observatory (Mexico)
It must be a pretty good site as it's going to be the site for this 6.4 meter diameter infrared telescope:
San Pedro Martir Telescope (SPMT)
NOTE ON RELIGIONS
I think there's a tendency amongst some to think of the Hawaiian religion as "primitive" which doesn't help. Headlines such as Superstition Wins Out as Hawaii Supreme Court Suspends Massive Telescope Construction don't help matters!
Why should a belief in a more powerful god that creates a universe be less superstitious and more authentic than a belief in less powerful gods that are associated with places?
It's not like believing in something more powerful makes it more likely to be true. It sometimes feels as if in religion they have the idea that the person who believes in the most powerful god can beat everyone else. Like a competition in imagining more and more powerful gods to beat everyone else's beliefs. Or more and more virtuous Gods, or kinder Gods etc.
The critics so often talk about the Hawaiian beliefs here as "superstition". But they don't call Christianity "superstition". That's a kind of unacknowledged arrogance that "our religion is better than yours" that I think doesn't further the debate here. I know they aren't doing this deliberately and think they are being considerate, but unacknowledged unrecognized arrogance is the hardest of all to deal with, because you can't see it at all and are incapable of recognizing it as arrogance.
For me, beliefs in ancestor worship, in local deities of places, shamanism, belief in many deities (polytheism), deities that live high in the sky, in deities that created the universe and then leave it alone, or created it and continuously intervene, in the idea of a divine nature in human beings themselves, in a Taoist balance of nature, in a "dream time" as for the Australian aborigines, the Confucian ideas etc, ideas of sacredness of human beings and the world - they are all on the same level.
Any number of beliefs about the nature of the world we live in, our place in it, what counts as sacred, orwhat happens after you die. There is no way at all to decide between them.
And there is nothing "scientific" about the idea that there is nothing more to this life and universe than what we have been able to discover with our scientific methods, or the belief that when you die that's it.
For sure "scientific atheists" don't have a creed where you have to say "I believe in the power of the scientific method using experiments with physical objects to establish all truths, and I also believe that there is no other method of establishing truth unless it is verified by the scientific method". But that's just because they so take it for granted they don't even need to make it into a creed.
To my mind that is more of a superstition than any religion, because it's unacknowledged, it's like a religion where the practitioners don't even acknowledge the validity of any other way of looking at things. Of course there are many scientists who hold many different religious ideas, or are agnostic, etc. It's just some scientists who subscribe to "scientific atheism". And it's for those particularly, especially when they argue aggressively against religious ideas - that I think - "this chap seems as superstitious or more so in his or her understanding of science as anyone in any religion".
I'm a Buddhist myself, and we don't have a creed or a requirement to affirm belief in deities at all, not in that sense (the Buddhist "deities" are either ways of depicting supreme qualities such as unbounded compassion, wisdom or love rather as they might be in a poem, or they are though of just beings like us caught up in the cycle of existence but with longer lives).
But do have an idea of a kind of sacredness you can contact in yourself and the world and a truth that you can see for yourself. You can use reasoning, philosophy, science to point at that truth, or you can point to it with poetry also, but at some point you have to see the truth directly for it to have any impact. A kind of truth that goes beyond what you can establish by scientific experiment and reasoning - because something you can see only through reasoning is something you can forget, as well. There's the idea of truths you can see directly that are transformative, that can't be forgotten in that way.
For me that is the path to follow, but I don't feel anyone else should follow that path either.
And you can't disprove any of those beliefs by pointing to violent actions by those who claim to be religious either, as if religion was a cause of violence. Atheists also are violent, many of them. Violence in the name of freedom, or in the name of human rights, or in the name of communism, or fascism, or violence just to grab resources, oil fields or whatever. We find plenty of excuses for violence. I think there's not the slightest shred of evidence that religion leads people to violence, as after all the central message of all the main religions is a message of peace. Though plenty of evidence that violent people often use religion as an excuse for violence.
David Mitchell makes that point here:
And me talking about the "scientific ideas" about life after death and why I don't think the mind is a computer program.
Robert Walker's answer to Is there life after death?
If a program can't undestand truth - ethics of artificial intelligence babies
And here Ringu Tulku who talks about Buddhist ideas with simplicity and clarity. He is a proponent of the Rime movement - "no boundaries" - that the Buddha said he taught many different methods for different people - can't say one is right or wrong or higher or lower. I think he has something useful to say to our modern world.
Listen to what he says about the Tibetan Rime "no boundaries" movement (towards the end), and his suggestion that that same approach can be brought to the whole world, many paths, prophets, religious, non religious. and so on. And how differences are something good.
I think applying this approach to the Hawaiian beliefs could help.
Their beliefs need respect as much as anyone's. And the world is far richer for having these various religious ideas. For some people, this is the path they need.
Here are a few videos of Hawaiians putting forward their views.
In favour of the Thirty Meter Telescope:
Against it:
Here is a Hawaiian talking about Mauna Kea as his people's ancestor.
Debate
SUMMING UP
As astronomers and scientists, let's respect these beliefs, that these people are genuine. Let's not be over hasty to call them charlatans because they believe things that don't fit in easily with religions we are more familiar with. I think it is pretty clear that there are many Hawaiians for whom this is a big issue and surely they are genuine in their beliefs here, whatever we make of them.
And please, let's not treat science as a "trump card" that beats everything else. It's natural to feel like that as a scientist. But I think it also helps to have some humility, to recognize that there are other perspectives. And that collectively we may come to better decisions when all perspectives are given their say. And as a default position we need to assume that others are also being genuine in what they say, just as we are, and to assume good faith unless there is clear evidence to the contrary.
And in this particular case, to recognize that building a 17 story building on the top of a mountain is bound to be a matter of controversy, anywhere in the world, especially a distinctive exposed prominent mountain like Mauna Kea, whatever the reasons behind the various views. And so we have to follow due process, and see what happens.
And the Hawaiians themselves also have to work through the ideas, and how it impacts on their beliefs and view of Mauna Kea as sacred. And perhaps they can find a way for the science and culture to co-exist and a way to build the telescope consistent with their views of the sacredness of Mauna Kea..
And if the decision is not to build, well, we've got the backup location in Mexico, which has already been judged good enough for another large leading edge 6.4 meter infrared telescope, and is further north as well. So, it does have advantages especially since there is going to be a similarly large telescope in the Atacama desert to view the southern hemisphere.
The Mexican telescope has more days in the year when you can't observe, or when seeing is poor, compared with Mauna Kea - but when you can observe, the seeing is often excellent, one of the best sites in the world. Astroclimate at San Pedro Martir and SITE PROSPECTION AT SAN PEDR O MARTIR
And there would be less overlap between the two telescopes in the Mexican location. So it's not like this is absolutely the only place it can be built.
In this answer, I am not taking any position on whether the telescope should be built or not. It's just affirming the need for due process as something that the Hawaiians also have to work through for themselves, just as would be necessary if they wanted to build it on Ben Nevis or anywhere else in the world.
OPEN LETTER
I'd also like to append the open letter written by the Mauna Kea Hui to Intel co-founder Gordon Moore, whose Palo Alto nonprofit Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation is one of the key funders for the project - gives some of the islander's perspective on it.
Aloha pumehana Mr. Moore,
We acknowledge your great contributions as co-founder of Intel Corporation, trustee of the California Institute of Technology, and philanthropic supporter of science, as well as natural resource protection around the world. You have given much to society, and for this, we thank you. We write today, however, regarding your financial backing of an aggressive campaign to build the world’s largest telescope—the Thirty Meter Telescope—atop Mauna Kea.
The summit of Mauna Kea is protected by state and federal laws that support conservation over development because Mauna Kea is home to rare plant and animal species found nowhere else on planet Earth, some on the brink of extinction. Astronomy, including the search for life on other planets, is a noble endeavor, but it loses that nobility when its actions threaten life on Earth. Extinction begins the process of unraveling creation — it is forever, and it is unacceptable, especially in this day and age.
Mauna Kea is one of the most sacred places in the Pacific. Islanders use the mountain as a place of spiritual contemplation, healing and recreation. National Geographic recently named it as one of the Holiest places on Earth. For Native Hawaiians, Mauna Kea is a temple dedicated to Aloha and peace. It is where our supreme being gave birth to all living things. It was the meeting place of Papa (Earth Mother) and Wakea (Sky Father), the progenitors of the Hawaiian people, and is the burial ground of the most revered of Hawaiian ancestors.
Mauna Kea’s high elevation landscape is used for ceremonies that contain star and other knowledge essential to modern Hawaiian voyaging. Hawaiians used this knowledge millennia before modern astronomy to voyage to hundreds of tiny islands spread over ten million square miles of the Pacific. More than ninety-three astronomical sites are available in the world for doing astronomy, but Mauna Kea is the only place on Earth for conducting these ceremonies.
The controversy over the TMT does not end with moral and ethical questions about culture and the environment. There are also legal issues. Caltech and the University of California (UC) have repeatedly built telescopes on Mauna Kea without complying with state and federal environmental laws, escalating the decades-long conflict between the astronomers and islanders.
In the 1990s, despite public outcry about building more telescopes, Caltech and UC, together with NASA, campaigned to build as many as six more “outrigger” telescopes for the Keck observatory, and the people had to turn to the courts for justice. In 2003, a federal judge ordered the Keck project to comply complete a federal environmental impact statement, and in 2007 a state judge voided the Keck permit for Mauna Kea because it violated state law.
Sadly, the TMT Project perpetuates this legacy of lawlessness. As this letter is being written the UH/TMT team have begun work on the TMT Project by grading, excavating and test drilling on the sacred lands of Mauna Kea. Aa group of Native Hawaiian cultural practitioners, environmentalists, and public interest advocacy groups are challenging state of Hawai`i’s permit for the TMT as a breach of the public trust in state courts, and University of Hawai`i students are protesting against the university’s lead in the desecration of Mauna Kea. Further, TMT officials have refused to comply with the law requiring a federal EIS, despite receiving millions in federal funds from the National Science Foundation. They’ve also ignored the legal limit on the number of telescopes allowed on the summit. Repeating the same errors the courts previously found unlawful is outrageous. Is this the legacy you wish to leave in Hawaii, Mr. Moore?
Over and over, islanders have peacefully expressed—with aloha—our concerns, yet you and your colleagues continue to push this project without following the law. Aloha is not just a catchy phrase. It’s about truth which is meant to heal.
Mr. Moore, you have a chance to hold the California observatories to a higher standard of Aloha. You and financial influence can help direct the TMT proponents to a peaceful solution, such as supporting stopping the current construction activities on Mauna Kea. You can make a significant shift be choosing not to build the TMT altogether especially since the European Extremely Large Telescope (EELT), a next generation telescope that is currently under construction in Chile. The EELT is considerably larger then TMT (TMT is 30 m in size and the EELT is 39 m). According to TMT’s own analysis, the no build alternative will cause less environmental and cultural damage than building it on the sacred mountain landscape and fragile ecosystem of Mauna Kea.
It is time to Aloha Mauna Kea, Mr. Moore.
Signed:
Kealoha Pisciotta, Mauna Kea Anaina Hou, Kumu Paul K. Neves, Deborah J. Ward, Kalani Flores and Pua Case, the Flores Case Ohana, Clarence Kukauahi Ching and KAHEA: The Hawaiian-Environmental Alliance
see Intel founder, land board asked to stop new Mauna Kea observatory
The environmental impact statement is here Land Use - section on the Thirty Meter Telescope
SPIRIT OF ALOHA
In that open letter they talk about aloha. Here is more about it, the peaceful approach that the Hawaiian protests on Mauna Kea exemplify:
See also "The Meaning of Aloha"
This originated as my answer to the Quora question:
Have now made this into a science blog post here:
A Telescope "Skyscraper" On Muana Kea In Hawaii - Should Astronomers Build It?
UPDATE
Though Mauna Kea is still their top candidate for the TMT, they are pursuing La Palma Spain as a second location if Mauna Kea falls through, with plans to start building in 2018. Thirty Meter Telescope
Yes it's possible if you have enough time for the project. Here is a way to use a 100 km diameter asteroid as a gravity tug that does repeated flybys of Jupiter and Earth. The idea is to move Eart...
(more)Yes it's possible if you have enough time for the project. Here is a way to use a 100 km diameter asteroid as a gravity tug that does repeated flybys of Jupiter and Earth. The idea is to move Earth out far enough so that it stays habitable as the sun gets hotter hundreds of millions of years in the future. So that's altering the Earth's lifespan in a positive way so that it can be habitable for longer.
Someone worked out, it only needs to do a flyby of Earth every 6,000 years to do the trick. So - every few thousand years as it approaches Earth or Jupiter you have to do some careful fine tweaking of its trajectory. But most of the time you can just forget it.
It works by transferring momentum from Jupiter to Earth. As Earth spirals out, Jupiter spirals in - but only slightly.
Of course you'd need some pretty awesome fail-safes - don't want to have any chance of something that big hitting Earth. It's nearly ten times larger and getting on for a thousand times heavier than the asteroid impact that ended the dinosaur era - which is amongst the largest meteorites to hit Earth for over 3 billion years - there were many at that size but nothing much larger.
For an idea for another way of doing this not involving flybys, see David Brin's Let's Lift The Earth!
Explore, definitely, though that's speaking as a space enthusiast. I think one is bound to have enthusiasm for something that one is especially interested in. And I think myself that it is right th...
(more)Explore, definitely, though that's speaking as a space enthusiast. I think one is bound to have enthusiasm for something that one is especially interested in. And I think myself that it is right that we decide this collectively, so everyone is involved in the decision, not just the enthusiasts.
Colonizing - less sure about that. Because first, there is nowhere anywhere near to Earth that is anything like as hospitable as Earth. So that's a bit like asking, should we colonize Antarctica? With current technology, and given that we have plenty of space on Earth that's far more habitable than anywhere we know of in space, I'd say no, there's no point in that. Any colony also would surely be bound to fizzle out once people realize how hard it is to live there.
Settlements, though, yes. Like in Antarctica, scientific bases. I don't think we need a "push" to colonize space. I think that as we explore it, then settlements will arise naturally. And if we do find a way to make large scale closed systems in space, we may colonize it also. But there's no great benefit in rushing into that.
Indeed a future with space colonies might be less stable than one without. Especially a big push that lead to colonies with millions of residents.
There's no way space colonies can be as easy to build as houses on Earth in the near future. So the only way this can happen is if Earth subsidizes the colonies. For instance they could be built by wealthy organizations that earn trillions from selling metal to Earth. That could lead to a future where it is possible to build space colonies quite easily. The companies that mine the asteroids would be earning plenty to pay for space colonies maybe for thousands, even millions of people.
But they would be doing that by taking resources from Earth in exchange for the metals. The amount of work into the project. Electronics manufactured on Earth. Spaceships manufactured on Earth.
Could be a future where the people on Earth are in poverty subsidizing the people in space. That I think would not be a good future.
What's more, space colonies would have high technology, with fast spaceships. And a spaceship crashing into a space colony at kilometers per second - the colonies would be very fragile.
So a future with space colonies has to be a future which is also very peaceful. If you had the likes of ISIS in a space colony, with all the technology they have - they could destroy other space colonies easily, with the only defense, to bury your colony deep underground. I think a future with battling space colonies living in deep underground shelters in the Moon etc would be a dystopia I'd not like to see happen.
It would not be possible to survive by escaping into the woods or caves or whatever when attacked either, because there is nowhere out there with breathable air. If your house is destroyed on the Earth, you may well have got away in time and can build again. If your habitat is destroyed in a space colony, there would probably be no survivors, not from a deliberate attack even just with a deliberately crashed spaceship hitting the habitat. Even if you were out doing an EVA at the time in a spacesuit or lunar rover or whatever, you'd just survive as long as your oxygen lasted and then you've had it.
So - we need to be peaceful first, at least in space, before we get to the point where we have millions of people in space. Otherwise space colonies will destroy each other through wars similar to those on Earth.
We do have peaceful co-operation in space at present with the Outer Space Treaty. But if we had millions in space, quickly, then that agreement might erode in various ways and I think we don't want to rush into such a future.
And unless our technology advances hugely, I also think that a future where there is a reasonable balance between Earth and space colonies would have many more people on Earth than in space - reflecting how much easier it is to live on Earth. Nothing we can do can make Earth less habitable than anywhere in space, and ideas of terraforming other planets are not practical over centuries and many doubts and questions about whether they would work over longer timescales.
I think it is possible, but would happen slowly, and that slow is good here. Done slowly, we can adapt and find out how to live in space safely, and then how to have even large numbers of people in space safely, living together in enough harmony not to destroy each other.
And as for going into space to escape Earth- we'd bring all our problems with us. If we go into space as warlike people, then it actually endangers the Earth because space colonies could easily gang up and drop asteroids on Earth if there was some conflict - or threaten to do so. E.g. in that dystopia future scenario of wealthy and selfish space colonists trying to get poor Earth inhabitants to do things they don't want to do.
And I think the same applies even more so to the galaxy as a whole. We should not even think about colonizing another star, until we can see right into the future, what the implications would be of a spreading wave of self replicating humans through the galaxy. Self replicating robots can be programmed, have controls to stop them going out of hand. Self replicating humans though, if spread through a galaxy beyond light speed distance - there is no way we can put that genie back in the bottle, and the results could be disastrous to the galaxy.
Exploring just fine. Small settlements, great. Robotic exploration, great. With self replicating technology we could have robotic explorers around every single star in the galaxy reporting back to us eventually for future generations. But - colonizing - I think we must step slowly there and not get too carried away.
which originated as my answer to a couple of questions on quora:
I was actually asked if it is possible for humans to live on this planet, if it exists, but it's been merged into this question and doesn't seem to be any way to unmerge. So anyway just to answer that point.
...
(more)I was actually asked if it is possible for humans to live on this planet, if it exists, but it's been merged into this question and doesn't seem to be any way to unmerge. So anyway just to answer that point.
First, it's not been proven to exist. Nowhere near. Just the best candidate for planet X for a long time. The 1 in 15,000 seems impressive until you realize there are thousands of astronomers looking through reams of data every year, and 1 in 15,000 chances would pop up anyway from time to time just through pure chance. If it is just an observational accident like that, then you'd expect it to be disproved as they find more dwarf planets as it would be just an accident that the first few found suggest this new planet.
But then - it might exist also, it's intriguing enough to search up further. So what if they do find it?
No there's not any chance, not on the surface. Because it would be far from the sun and get less sunlight than Pluto. Our atmosphere would freeze out completely into ice, it's so cold. So no matter what it is made of, then its not habitable, at least not by living on its surface and heated by sunlight.
But what if it has internal heat? It surely has, like Neptune, heat from formation still trapped inside the planet.
So, it's a bit different if you are able to live beneath its surface. Depending on its size, if it is similar to Neptune, the surface gravity could be similar to Earth.
Neptune as photographed by Voyager 2 - Gravity on Neptune - Universe Today
So the gravity wouldn't be a problem.
It would depend what it is made of. Could it have an ocean? If like Neptune it could have a fair bit of heat from formation that it hasn't lost yet. So could be warm enough to keep an ocean liquid. Neptune has a subsurface ocean of very hot dense fluid.
This subsurface ocean on Neptune is definitely not habitable as temperatures range from 3,140 degrees Fahrenheit (1,727 degrees Celsius) to 8,540 F (4,727 F). - See more at: What is Neptune Made Of?
But what if this new ice giant (as Uranus and Neptune are sometimes described) has a higher percentage of ice than Neptune? Could the outer levels of its deep subsurface ocean be at a low enough temperatures to be habitable?
I've no idea if that's possible. But if so, perhaps deep below the surface humans could swim around in a planet girdling ocean :).
Or if not, wait for it to cool down and eventually Neptune's ocean will cool down and be habitable. And so same for this new ice giant if it exists. If you have the patience and longevity to wait a few billion years, or longer, you might eventually find it becomes habitable.
But we'd still need to make our own air to breathe. And the water might be under high pressure at the level where it is warm enough to be habitable. And if it was habitable, as usual the first priority would be to make sure that we don't introduce Earth life to the planet in case it has its own native lifeforms. We wouldn't want to make them extinct before we know about them.
So, who knows, it could in principle have a civilization too :). Probably of fish, and very hard for them to develop technology without fire. And fire very hard in an ocean.
But civilizations don't have to be technological. Philosophy, ethics, music, art, that's all civilization too. They could be millions of years ahead of us in, say, ethics, philosophy and maths, and yet have no technology.
But I don't know how likely it is that it could have such a cool ocean.
If the planet itself is not habitable, it could easily have moons with subsurface oceans that are habitable, heated by resonances with other moons, like Saturn's moon Enceladus.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/En...
If anyone knows more about possible temperatures of the liquid water layers of ice giants in the Kuiper belt - or more distant ice giants in the Oort cloud, do say!
Yes, it's possible. Some think that Mars had an oxygen rich atmosphere early on. While life could have been responsible, it could also just be the result of solar storms. Without a magnetic field i...
(more)Yes, it's possible. Some think that Mars had an oxygen rich atmosphere early on. While life could have been responsible, it could also just be the result of solar storms. Without a magnetic field it wasn't as protected from solar storms as Earth, so the storms could split the oxygen from the hydrogen in the upper atmosphere. The hydrogen being lighter escapes. The oxygen then builds up in the atmosphere.
Indeed this process may be the reason that Mars is red, why it has iron oxides and why its salts are highly oxygenated sulfates, perhchlorates and chlorates instead of the sulfides and chlorides we have on Earth.
See Early Mars atmosphere 'oxygen-rich' before Earth's - BBC News
On Early Earth the iron was unoxidized and only went rusty when photosynthetic llife started to raise the concentrations of oxygen in the atmosphere. And for a long period of time, millions of years, the oxygen levels didn't rise far because all the oxygen was used up making the iron deposits rusty.
The oxygen caused the dissolved iron and other metals to precipitate out of the ocean as oxides creating the Banded iron formation
Banded iron formation Dales Gorge
On Mars this same sort of process may well be what turned the planet red. But need not be due to life. It could just be due to solar storms splitting oxygen out of water in the upper atmosphere and the hydrogen escaping.
So detection of oxygen alone is not enough reason to say an exoplanet has life on it.
James Lovelock suggested that if you detect oxygen and methane say, two different gases that will react together over a short timescale, in the same atmosphere, it could be evidence of life.
Even that is not foolproof. The methane plumes on Mars could be caused by inorganic serpentisation. If it was a strong signal it could be a decent indication that there might be life there, to be followed up further.
We could however also detect life directly on an exoplanet from biochemical signatures, e.g. the "Red edge" of chlorophyll. Something that suggests a prevalent molecule on the surface that seems unlikely by only chemical processes without some replication going on.
And just to say, it can of course go the other way, a planet could have no signs of life detectable from a distance yet have abundant life. E.g. ice covered planet or moon like Europa. Or an ocean world, with life on the sea bed, perhaps supported by hydrothermal vents etc, but atmosphere in equilibrium like early Earth before photosynthesis.
Or a terrestrial planet but it is dry on the surface, no oceans, but life deep underground, in an underground "hydrosphere" layer of water that covers the entire planet, but beneath rock so invisible from above. Mars may have such a hydrosphere deep underground for instance.
Or it could be photosynthetic life is abundant there, but all the oxygen is being used to create metal oxides like our banded iron formations and so far there is no noticeable impact on the atmosphere.
Indeed also modern Mars might have life on the surface, but it could have no detectable effect on the atmosphere if it is sparse, slow growing, and only occurs in special places on Mars. There's a tiny amount of oxygen in the Mars atmosphere anyway. So a signal from photosynthetic life, sparse quantities, say cyanobacteria or lichens, and other microbes etc feeding on them or living with them in microhabitats - that would not be noticeable at all. You could only find it by looking for it close up on the surface. Not even from orbit, never mind looking at Mars from the distance, from another star.
I don't think we will ever. Or at least not in the foreseeable near future. It's a bit like asking "When will we colonize Antarctica". or "When will we colonize the sea bed". But much harder to col...
(more)I don't think we will ever. Or at least not in the foreseeable near future. It's a bit like asking "When will we colonize Antarctica". or "When will we colonize the sea bed". But much harder to colonize Mars than either of those.
COMPARISON OF COLONIES ON MARS WITH COLONIES ON SEA BED OR IN ANTARCTICA
Mars at the equator is the same temperature as Antarctica on Earth, but actually gets far colder than Antarctica at night, gets so cold that it's below the freezing point for dry ice.
It has the same problem of no oxygen to breathe, as the sea bed. If living on the sea bed, then breathable air is available just a few tens or hundreds of meters above. Far easier than generating it in a closed system habitat. Yet we find that too much trouble for it to be worth living on the sea bed, for most people.
You can't just use an oxygen breather like a jet fighter pilot or climbers on mount Everest because the air is too thin. Your lungs wouldn't be able to take in any oxygen at that low partial pressure, and what's more the water on the linings of your lungs and mouth would boil.
You need a full pressure spacesuit as for the ISS EVAs.
ADDITIONAL ISSUES FOR MARS
In addition to those problems, there's the cosmic radiation, which you can't protect against in spacesuits, so you would have limits on how much EVA you can do, similarly to the limits on how much time an astronaut can spend on the ISS, but if living on Mars that limit would be over your entire lifetime. So inhabitants would have to spend most of their time indoors in their habitats unless they want an increased risk of cancer likely to strike when you are young - and who would choose to do that given the option?
Then you have to build your habitats to hold in the pressure of the air inside, which is ten tons outwards pressure per square meter - and then cover them with a couple of meters of regolith. No way that can compete with house building on Earth. Where you have no air pressure to contain, no need for radiation shielding, and you can go outdoors without a spacesuit to build or repair houses.
Also - minor point in a way because it is an unknown - but it's not known yet if Mars gravity is suitable for human long term health. Particularly it's not known whether it would be safe for either child or mother to give birth in Mars gravity. and whether children would grow up normally on Mars (would you have to live in spinning habitats on the surface)? Our bodies are fine adjusted to the Earth gravity and are complex, different systems respond in different ways to zero or lower gravity, so it's not possible to just work out by interpolation or modeling, You need experiments with humans in low gravity to see how our bodies respond to it.
And then of course you've got the expense and difficulty of sending equipment to Mars. Far easier to supply equipment to Antarctica or the sea bed, but we don't think of colonizing those places.
TERRAFORMING IDEAS ARE SKETCHY
And the ideas of terraforming Mars are very sketchy, and make lots of assumptions e.g. about the amount of CO2 on Mars, which may not be valid (we only know of enough CO2 to increase the pressure to 2% of Earth's pressure) and is based on a timeline of 1000 years (Mars society estimate) to get to the point where trees can grow there, so long as you keep pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere to keep it warm - or use large planet sized thin film mirrors in space to keep it warm. That atmosphere would be poisonous to humans (CO2 above 1% concentration in the air kills us even with plenty of oxygen) so you'd need aqualung type closed system air supply with buffer gas such as nitrogen to survive. They optimistically assume that within a few more thousand years you'd have an oxygen atmosphere with nitrogen - but that would involve removing nearly all the carbon from the atmosphere and replacing it with nitrogen (from where? Nitrates on Mars maybe?) - if done biologically that might more likely take a hundred thousand years. And then you need to step up on the greenhouse gas production / area of mirrors because an Earth type atmosphere is even less warming than a CO2 atmosphere.
All that might be possible but there is so much to go wrong and as it is for our descendants a thousand years from now, who knows if this is what they will want? And how likely is it that any government on Earth will sustain such a mega project for a thousand years at costs of billions of dollars every year? And given the harsh conditions, it's not realistic to suppose that colonists on Mars do this building of 200 nuclear power stations and mining 11 cubic kilometers of fluorite ore every century just to warm up the planet. Or build planet sized thin film mirrors, millions of square kilometers, in orbit around Mars. That level of mega technology would have to be supported from Earth.
ANTARCTIC SETTLEMENTS AND SUBMARINES
We do have settlements in Antarctica and research ships / habitats where researchers can live permanently below the surface of the sea for as long as they want. And submersibles that can dive deep below the sea. And submarines that let you live deep below the sea surface for months on end without resupply from above.
So - it would be possible I think to send humans to Mars to explore, following a similar model.
BUT ON MARS WE ARE SEARCHING FOR LIFE
Then the best way to explore Mars if we do send humans there, is from orbit. Because first of all we are searching for independently evolved life on Mars, past and present day. The very last thing we want to do is to just discover life we brought there ourselves.
That's the same here on Earth for some places. We want to find out if there is life in the subsurface Lake Vostok in Antarctica. Though it would be possible to melt down to it and put a submersible into it, robotic controlled - they haven't done that yet because of the need to make sure it is not contaminated with surface Earth life, so we can be sure that we study the life that is there already. They are careful just about drilling indeed there was some controversy when the Russians finally drilled through, after years of waiting to develop the technology. Not thought they have introduced surface life to Lake Vostok, because the water was captured under high pressure surging from below. But their samples could have been contaminated by surface life so putting some question on the results.
Similarly, our robots on Mars are carefully sterilized. And if we send any to "special regions" where life may be present they will have to be even more carefully sterilized. Indeed we haven't yet sent any spacecraft sterilized to Mars to that level, not since Viking in the 1970s.
CAN'T MAKE HUMAN HABITATS INTO INVERTED BIOSAFETY LABS ON MARS
No way human occupied spacecraft can be sterilized in the same way.
Every time you exit your spacecraft, there's a leak of air from the airlock, even with the suitport (airlock attached to the back of a spacesuit which you crawl through to get into the spacesuit). Bound to need to vent air from time to time if problematical gases build up. Almost certainly going to vent human wastes and waste biproducts in some form, even just things like packaging from supply vessels.
It's not really possible to imagine a human habitat on Mars as designed like an inverted biosafety facility with the microbes that accompany humans as the hazard to be kept away from Mars.
And dust storms can spread microbe spores anywhere on Mars imbedded in a dust grain.
IN THE EVENT OF A HARD LANDING OF A HUMAN OCCUPIED SPACECRAFT
But whatever your thoughts about that - some think it may be possible because of the harsh Mars environment, that the numbers of escaping microbes could be reduced enough to not be an issue. But how can you possibly make it safe in event of a hard landing? Almost certainly one of the human missions would crash - and a crashed spacecraft, with bodies spread out over Mars, and food, air, water etc - after that and a few dust storms later, then any biosignatures of life you found on Mars, your first assumption would be that it came from that crashed spacecraft.
So, robots really do do it better on the Mars surface. Because they can be sterilized.
BROADBAND COMMUNICATIONS WITH MARS
The obvious thing then is to have humans in orbit to operate the rovers via telepresence, or else to control mars surface rovers from Earth.
Control from Earth would be much easier with increased bandwidth - the main problem at the moment is bandwidth more than it is the light delay. Indeed typically they download data just once a day and upload new instructions for the next day. Our rovers could be further away from Earth than Pluto and we'd hardly see any difference in the way we operate them.
So the light speed delay from Earth is not really the main factor at present. So first we need broadband connection to Mars - whether we send humans there or not. And that would immediately hugely speed up the progress of robotic exploration on Mars. They would be able to drive much further each day - instead of mapping out 100 meters of travel for the next day, because you won't hear back again until the next day - you could map out 100 meters of travel for the next half hour. It would probably be twenty times faster just because of that. And there are various ways it can be speeded up even further, using artificial real time, a technique from computer games, if we had broadband communications with Mars. This involves things such as putting communications satellites in orbit around Mars dedicated as their primary mission to relay data back to Earth, obviously probably observing Mars as well but with big radio dishes and their primary mission is to achieve broadband communications. Or it might well be that they use laser communication.
We have to do that anyway for human missions. Or at least it would be much harder without and as part of the expense of a human mission, this would be a minor item on the budget sheet. It would not make a lot of sense to send humans to Mars long term with just the existing capabilities for communications back to Earth. Do that first I think.
ADVANTAGES OF HUMANS IN ORBIT OVER HUMANS ON THE SURFACE
Then, humans in orbit would control robots on the surface. This is
For these reasons I think the first human expedition to Mars will involve studying it telerobotically from orbit.
SHOULD WE EXPLORE PHOBOS AND DEIMOS WITH HUMANS ON THE SURFACE? - THE PROBLEM OF JUNK AND WASTE
Then we might perhaps explore Phobos and Deimos next. They are good sites for long term bases to study Mars - assuming it is okay for planetary protection which would involve studying those moons first. There's a remote chance of life from Mars on Phobos in spore form brought there by impacts on Mars - I think enough to be beset to study first before sending humans there, but it's a low risk situation. Then also there's the effect of a human habitat on the moons. We can get ideas of how that works with humans on our Moon.
Do human habitats inevitably get surrounded by piles of junk, tons discarded every few months, and human waste, similarly to what you'd get if you kept all the progress missions that dump waste from the ISS? If so then you might give it some thought before sending humans even to places like Phobos and Deimos because of the impact of our habitats on the tiny moons we want to study. Phobos is only 27 × 22 × 18 km and the outer moon Deimos is even tinier, 15 × 12.2 × 11 km.
But if humans can live in quite a clean closed system way on the Moon then it makes sense to send them to Phobos / Deimos. If not, can explore those moons telerobotically just like the Mars surface.
SO GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT LIKE ANTARCTICA
So that's how I see it developing. Exploring. Settlements eventually. But no great rush.
When the first explorers arrived in Antarctica, they did set up temporary bases. Eventually they set up long term bases which are now manned every year 24/7. I expect a similar progression in space missions.
ECONOMIES OF SCALE FOR LARGE SPACE HABITATS
As for humans living in space permanently - I think it's possible but would need economics of scale. If you had a large habitat - say a crater covered biome or a Stanford torus, depends how easy it is to maintain. One reason it might be easy to maintain is that the ratio of surface area to volume goes down a lot as the habitat gets larger and you only have to maintain the outer skin. And if living in a cave on the Moon, even more so, especially if there are lava tube caves several kilometers in diameter as some think is possible on the Moon.
So, if it is really easy to maintain such large habitats, it might possibly be economic to maintain a colony of say 10,000 in orbit around Earth or on a lunar crater or in a lunar cave, where it would not be possible for a much smaller colony of a dozen or so. A really large colony might possibly get to the point where it is almost as easy to live there as on Earth.
But if so I see this as a fair way into the future most likely. And more likely to happen first in Earth orbit or close by. And using materials from Near Earth Asteroids and the Moon. They have all the resources you have on Mars in a form much easier of access. And far easier to support from Earth.
FOR MARS
I don't think this will happen for Mars at least for many decades for planetary protection reasons, because we have already found many potential life habitats there and there is a lot to explore and study even if we don't find life in the early expeditions there. And I simply can't see an international COSPAR workshop of astrobiologists, who would have to approve a human mission to the surface, having enough information to be able to say with confidence that it is safe to send a human mission tot he surface in the near future. Especially given the need to account for the possibility of a human ship hard landing on Mars in one of the special regions there. Hard to imagine they would conclude that a hard landing like that would be safe for planetary protection with present day technology.
But we have exciting possibilities with the telerobotic exploration from orbit. And there is also much to find out about the Moon, our closest neighbour yet so little explored.
LONG TERM - IF WE FIND INTERESTINGLY DIFFERENT LIFE ON MARS
Long term, if we find life on Mars and it is interestingly different from Earth life, some astrobiologists such as Chris McKay suggest that we should leave Mars to the martians, even if they are only microbes. Carefully remove all traces of life from the planet - sterilize our landers with future tech or remove them - and then follow what happens from above. If we do transform the planet, the aim then would be to transform it to be more habitable to the Martians even if they are just microbes and lichen or some such, to try to roll back to the more hospitable early Mars.
There is plenty of habitat area in our solar system for humans. Enough material in the asteroid belt alone to build habitats for a thousand times the land area of the Earth. So we don't need Mars for habitats with any decent future space tech.
That could also be one reason why our future descendants a thousand years from now, far from welcoming our clumsy first attempts at terraforming Mars, might instead say to themselves "If only they hadn't tried to do that!". They are great ideas to explore on paper, can give us insights into Earth, exoplanets, past history of Mars etc. But I think we are very far from knowing enough about Mars or about how planets work to make an informed decision about whether to attempt it or what the effects are likely to be or whether our descendants would welcome our attempts.
Asteroid Resources Could Create Space Habs For Trillions; Land Area Of A Thousand Earths
and my recent quora answers: Robert Walker's answer to Is Mars capable of supporting life?
and many other answers here on quora in this topic area.
See also what astronaut Chris Hadfield has to say - comparing the Moon to Antarctica.
""I expect we'll treat the Moon, for the next 100 years, like we've treated Antartica for the last 100 years. With an initial outpost briefly and then longer stays and people staying through the entire winter, and eventually we will have permanent habitation on the Moon." Then, he says, humans will go as far as Mars. "
Chris Hadfield: ISS commander on colonising the Moon (Wired UK)
Yes definitely. About ten years ago nearly everyone thought it was impossible. Apart from a few such as Gilbert Levin who has maintained all along that he thinks Viking discovered present day life ...
(more)Yes definitely. About ten years ago nearly everyone thought it was impossible. Apart from a few such as Gilbert Levin who has maintained all along that he thinks Viking discovered present day life already with his experiment - and some who thought there could be life in caves.
But that all changed with Phoenix in 2008. And with this sequence of photos:
It might not look like much. But it seems to show droplets of some material forming on the legs of Phoenix. then they grow, sometimes two droplets will merge, and then suddenly they disappear, presumably fallen off.
Phoenix had no way to examine those droplets. But the leading hypothesis is that they are droplets of salty briny water that formed on the salt thrown up on its legs when it landed. Probably taking in water from the atmosphere (deliquescing). It's hard to think of anything else that could be liquid in those conditions and the droplets certainly look like some form of liquid.
Pheonix also made isotope measurements of the Mars atmosphere which showed that the carbon in the carbon dioxide was replenished from volcanoes, and the oxygen must have exchanged chemically with something else, presumably water on the surface. That's rather a lot to discover just by measuring the ratio of isotopes for the two elements that make up the main constituent of the Mars atmosphere :).
They couldn't show whether the water is there all the time or only there sporadically. But over periods of millions of years, there is water present on Mars, liquid water, not ice. Could be thin films of liquid but is some there. Could be formed sometimes from volcanic activity or impacts, or could be it is always there.
So that got everyone thinking about it afresh. Because if there is liquid water on Mars, that suggests there might be a chance of life there.
The ionizing radiation is not a problem for present day life if there is liquid water there right now. It is for Europa - the flux of radiation for the Europa is so extreme that any surface life wouldn't have much of a chance not if it is right on the very surface.
But on Mars the level of ionizing radiation is the same as is experienced inside the ISS. The ISS has a problem with microbes like all space stations - they have to be cleared out from the atmosphere, indeed the atmosphere is kept very dry to discourage microbial growth. And that's just ordinary microbes. Radiation hardy microbes wouldn't even notice the levels of radiation on the Mars surface. Harmful to humans - humans are limited to a few years on the ISS because of rules of maximum lifetime radiation dose. But many microbes can even repair DNA damage within a few hours while alive and won't even notice Mars surface levels of radiation.
The reason ionizing radiation was thought to be a problem for life on Mars prior to 2008 was because they thought there was no possibility of water on or near the surface, and so, that any life there would have to have survived in a dormant state for millions of years. A very gentle dose of radiation each year can build up to be deadly for microbes over millions of years. After all that's a million times the dose you get in a single year. And what's more, it works exponentially. If ten million years of radiation is enough to reduce your population of microbes to a tenth, say, of the original, then twenty million years of radiation will reduce it to a hundredth, thirty million years to a thousandth, and so on.
Over billions of years the Mars surface radiation is so damaging that over three billion years it could reduce entire layers of organics meters thick to just water and gases and not much else. That is why we probably have to dig at least several meters, and ideally 10 meters to have a good chance of detecting early life on Mars, dig down deep enough to find deposits protected from surface conditions (or if very lucky, find newly exposed deposits that in the very recent past were ten meters underground)..
But over a period of a year or a century even, this radiation has negligible effects on many microbes. So, as soon as there is a possibility of water there, there is a possibility of life also.
The next discovery was this
Warm Season Flows on Slope in Newton Crater (animated)
This shows a cycle through spring, summer, then finally winter. As you see these streaks form in spring, extend down the slope, get wider, then fade away.
They are not thought to be damp patches as such. But the timing is not correlated in any way with the winds on Mars. It's too warm, far too warm for dry ice. The streaks start to form when the surface temperatures get above 0C on sun facing slopes.
All the models for this involve water in some form. Until recently there was no direct detection of water there. And we still don't have it. The problem is that the spacecraft that takes these photos can only take the photos in the early afternoon, the very worst time of day to spot water on Mars as that is when it is driest. Early morning would be a great time but because of its orbit, which takes it closer to Mars on the sun facing side at the time every day - it can't take those photos we'd like it to take to help solve the mystery. The streaks are also too narrow for the resolution of spectroscopic mapping of Mars.
So, thought we just wouldn't know for a long time. But then recently with careful work, they didn't find water, but they found the next best thing, strong evidence of hydrated salts on Mars in these RSLs.
Now, there are lots of streaks of many types on Mars. Most are caused by things such as land slip, wind erosion, even blocks of dry ice rolling down slopes, and dry ice also forms gullies The RSLs are extremely rare, only a few spots known on Mars where they occur. And other apparently identical slopes don't have them.
Still this very rare phenomenon on Mars does seem, best, even only theories so far, to be caused by water.
Another development, Nilton Renno who is in charge of the REMS surface weather station on Curiosity - a notable scientist with many honours - he and a team of other scientists did experiments involving putting salt next to ice in Mars surface conditions. He found that little millimeter scale droplets of water formed very readily in those circumstances.
"Based on the results of our experiment, we expect this soft ice that can liquify perhaps a few days per year, perhaps a few hours a day, almost anywhere on Mars. --- This is a small amount of liquid water. But for a bacteria, that would be a huge swimming pool ... So, a small amount of water is enough for you to be able to create conditions for Mars to be habitable today. And we believe this is possible in the shallow subsurface, and even the surface of the Mars polar region for a few hours per day during the spring.'"
(transcript from 2 minutes into the video onwards, from Nilton Renno video (youtube)
Curiosity also found evidence of water beneath the sand dunes on Mars, which was quite a surprise. Just a cm or so below the surface and it was indirect evidence - increased humidity as it drove over them. If so, this water dries out in the daytime and is probably very salty - but on the other hand life does have a way sometimes of creating its own micro-environments. Nilton Renno thinks there is a chance it could be habitable though most think it would be too salty and too cold.
Then there's the work of teams of scientists at DLR, german space agency. They have experimented with various lichens and green algae from cold dry places on Earth. They found that some of them, like this lichen.
Pleopsidium chlorophanum collected at an altitude of 1492 m above sea level at "Black Ridge" in North Victoria Land, Antarctica. This lichen lives at altitudes of up to 2000 meters in Antarctica.
They found that this lichen could survive in Mars surface conditions without any water at all. The way it does it is that it is able to collect the moisture from the atmosphere. In the daytime the Mars atmosphere is very dry indeed, goes down to 0% relative humidity. At night though, it cools down so much, that the tiny amount of water in the atmosphere becomes 100% humidity. In the morning you get these frosts that form briefly before the air gets too hot and warm and it evaporates again. Huge temperature extremes from day to night drive this cycle. At night it can sometimes get so cold that dry ice - solid CO2 - would be stable even at the equator. In the daytime it gets well above OC.
Well as it transitions from night to day, then plants like this lichen could get just enough moisture from the 100% humidity of the air to keep going.And they have pigments that protect them from UV light. If they were on the rocks, at an angle to the sun so rather indirect sunlight, the lichens could photosynthesize and metabolize. The fungal component of the lichen, though it needs oxygen, is able to survive too, getting enough supplied by the algae component to keep going.
So - this is quite borderline stuff and lichens are slow growing and the experiments haven't been that long. But the take home message so far seems to be that even in equatorial regions of Mars there is at least a slight possibility that some forms of lichens and cyanobacteria could survive. Bear in mind that none of the microbes and plants tested on Earth evolved on Mars or are specifically adapted to it. Yet some seem to have that capability as indirect result of other adaptations.
Gilbet Levin also thinks that life could be able to take advantage of the early morning frosts in some way, though he doesn't go into a lot of detail as to how that could happen.
His ideas were revisited recently when, looking over the old Viking data, a scientist discovered evidence of circadian rhythms in the experiment. What's more rhythms not synchronized with the temperature cycles induced from outside but offset a little. This seems a quite strong indication of life to some people. If this is right, then Viking already discovered life in the equatorial regions in the 1970s.
This is possible as the viking labelled release experiment is very sensitive. We haven't sent any life detection experiment as sensitive as that to Mars since then. Sadly it was not conclusive because of the unusual and unexpected chemistry of the Mars soil. But it still remains the only experiment sent to Mars that had any chance of detecting present day life at typical concentrations found, for instance, in the Atacama desert core. Curiosity would not be able to find life at those tiny concentrations as any kind of recognizable organics signal because it is just too sparse.
Anyway so where there is water or humidity, there's a possiblity of life. But it depends what form the water takes. Skeptics say that yes, there is water on Mars (we can't deny that after Phoenix's atmospheric measurements and now Curiosity as well) - but that it is all too cold or too salty for life. It could be liquid right down to well below -20C, usually accepted limit for life to reproduce, if it is also sufficiently salty. So liquid water doesn't prove it's habitable.
So - nobody knows. But on the other hand there are many potential habitats on Mars. And even if many of them are inhospitable to life, too cold, too salty or whatever, it just needs one of those habitats to pan out to make Mars habitable to life.
Some skeptics will tell you that the Mars soil is too poisonous for life because of the perchlorates. But perchlorates are most poisonous at higher temperatures than on Mars. Poisonous to humans certainly. But some microbes actually use perchlorates as food. So it could even be an energy source for Martian life. The perchlorates don't seem to be an issue, and may indeed be an extra habitability factor for hardy mocrobes.
For more details about these potential habitats see my Are There Habitats For Life On Mars? - Salty Seeps, Clear Ice Greenhouses, Ice Fumaroles, Dune Bioreactors,...
For the new ideas about the Viking labelled release experiment and the possibility that they may have detected life back in the 1970s after all, see Rhythms From Martian Sands - What Did Our Viking Landers Find in 1976? Astonishingly, We Don't Know
For the hydrated salts discoveries for the RSLs see Why Are Hydrated Salts A Slam Dunk Case For Flowing Water On Mars? And What Next?
For more about why cosmic radiation is not lethal for life on Mars on the surface if these liquid water habitats exist, see UV & Cosmic Radiation On Mars - Why They Aren't Lethal For The "Swimming Pools For Bacteria"
And I have many other articles up about related topics as well as quora answers.
At it's closest, if it exists, it's three times the distance to Pluto.
It's also about the same size of Neptune, actually a bit smaller.
Neptune is eight magnitude when it is at its brightest. Theor...
(more)At it's closest, if it exists, it's three times the distance to Pluto.
It's also about the same size of Neptune, actually a bit smaller.
Neptune is eight magnitude when it is at its brightest. Theoretically that puts it within human vision, just, for exceptionally keen eyed astronomers with perfect seeing. But I haven't found any account of someone who has seen Neptune.
At three times further, then it will be much less bright than Neptune. So, no I don't think anyone will see it with naked eye from Earth.
BTW, I think "planet nine" is a silly name for it. Because what if we find another planet in between it and the other planets? Or what if we change the definition of a planet? It's already been changed once and I think it might again.
Some would say that both Ceres and Pluto are planets If so, Neptune would be planet nine and this new planet would be planet 11, or maybe a higher number than that if you also count Sedna etc as planets.
And we don't call Earth "planet 3" or Jupiter "planet 5".
So I hope they give it a new better name soon. It doesn't need to be discovered to be given a name. Nemesis and Tyche were both named although the probability seems to be that neither exists.
Mellopsia sounds like a nice name. Google search turns up this: New planet in our solar system? Hopefully
Though - the tiny 0.007% chance of it being a coincidence seems impressive - until you realize that there are thousands of astronomers and each considers many hypotheses and a lot of data every year. With so much data and so many astronomers, you can expect a 1 in 15,000 chance every so often, even if there is nothing there at all, just from the noise.
If that was the reason for it, then it is just a coincidence that the orbits found so far seem to suggest it exists. As we find more dwarf planets it will probably be disproved.
To be probable enough to count as almost certain in science you need a 1 in several million chance of it being a coincidence. Because 1 in 15,000 chances happen quite often in science and then get disproved.
It's our best candidate for a planet X for some time and exciting for that reason. But is nowhere near the stage where you could call it a discovery quite yet. But I hope they do find it in the searches, it would be a fun discovery and we could learn a lot from it :).
See also my Why This New "Planet X" Is No Threat To Earth :).
Well surely will include astrobiologists. That is if it is safe enough to send scientists. If it gets as easy as traveling to Antarctica. And if the astrobiologists are able to withstand spending m...
(more)Well surely will include astrobiologists. That is if it is safe enough to send scientists. If it gets as easy as traveling to Antarctica. And if the astrobiologists are able to withstand spending months on end in a tiny enclosed space like that, etc etc. Maybe some will be able to do it.
Do bear in mind this will be an extremely risky mission. I think it will be to Mars orbit for planetary protection reasons. I think preceded by many missions to the Moon and closer at hand.
The first missions to the Moon didn't have any scientists at all. Just astronauts, fighter pilot by training, able to respond quickly and decisively and accurately in a crisis. And all of them able to do the piloting etc. in any emergency.
Only with Apollo 17 did we send our first scientist to the Moon.
I wouldn't be surprised if it was the same for Mars for at least the first two or three missions. Though requiring a different type of specialist. They would have to have immense patience as well as the ability to respond quickly and accurately to any crisis and have lots of technical knowledge about the workings of the spacecraft and its systems.
When they get to Mars, if they are able to drive the rover around in real time via telepresence, in response to requests from Earth they would be able to speed things up hugely compared to control from Earth. And could learn enough science to do experiments. They'd get feedback from Earth within a few minutes when closest to Earth. Sort of like the way it works on the ISS. Still to this day, the people who go up there are primarily astronauts many of them. The scientists who designed the experiments are often back on Earth.
So I think astronauts. And would have to include at least two doctors for safety (in case one of them is ill as a doctor can't treat themselves if they are in some extreme danger e.g. on point of dying). With one doctor, everyone on the crew has a doctor except for the doctor him or herself. That's not much good.
I think as for Apollo the top priority when selecting crew would be safety of the mission. And though there were complaints that Apollo was not science driven - and I think it is important that it is science driven - but it can be science driven and still not include any scientists.
But ideally if you possibly can, include one scientist. Or two. If room for two, large crew, then I'd say one planetary geologist and one astrobiologist. If only one, would be tricky, someone who is cross disciplinary I think one person who is both astrobiologist and planetary geologist at the same time.
If it is a very large crew, or later on, I think it would be great if you had poets, composers, maybe science journalists and so on - good communicators able to convey what is happening to the rest of us and to help it to be a source of inspiration. For science journalists, if she was interested I'd vote for the likes of Emily Lakdawalla - someone like that, good communicator who can explain things very well to the rest of us. :). And also a trained scientist herself, a planetary geologist.
Or the UK sky at night team, Chris Lintot and Maggie Aderin-Pocock. Anyone like that, people who are good scientists themselves, so are not just baggage, would contribute to the expedition, but also good communicators too, and enthusiastic, able to really let us all feel what is going on. If anyone like that can be found who also wants to go and is also psychologically and physically able to withstand the expedition.
With Apollo - the astronauts were great at what they did. But they weren't the best of communicators, it was rather dry and bland in that respect. They were absolutely the right people to send on such a dangerous mission. But along with scientists selected because they are the very best in their field as much as possible, later expeditions once it is safe to send them - I think should also include people selected so that they are good at communicating to help take the rest of us along with them :).
Of course if you can combine both in one person, someone who is top flight as a scientist in a field that is directly relevant to Mars studies as their speciality - and an excellent communicator, enthusiastic, and able to convey that well too, that would be best of all :).
It's a common science fiction trope. But it's not really possible, the reason being that you can trace a continuous fossil history of the early hominids.
Smithsonian Artist Brings Faces from Past to Life
...
(more)It's a common science fiction trope. But it's not really possible, the reason being that you can trace a continuous fossil history of the early hominids.
Smithsonian Artist Brings Faces from Past to Life
There is no way that a species that evolved around another star could happen to fit exactly into that sequence, same bones, same DNA, same everything.
Indeed we share most of our DNA with chimpanzees and gorillas. Chimps, Humans 96 Percent the Same, Gene Study Finds
So even if you supposed that the human immigrants came from another planet that had exactly the same biochemistry as Earth, used DNA just like us, same bases, same translation table to amino acids, same chirality (not mirror DNA), same backbone etc etc - it's not at all likely that they also had the same pattern of bones, and impossible that their DNA is almost identical to great apes or chimpanzees DNA.
You need to go one step back in this question. Was it right to send humans to Mars at that point?
If you send a human spacecraft to Mars then one possibility is that it will crash. Could be because ...
(more)You need to go one step back in this question. Was it right to send humans to Mars at that point?
If you send a human spacecraft to Mars then one possibility is that it will crash. Could be because they misjudge the insertion burn. Could be that they skim the atmosphere a bit too low. Could be that any number of things go wrong during the "minutes of terror of the landing itself". It all has to happen on sequence at the right moment and far too quickly for human reactions to sort out any mistakes.
And landing previous unmanned spacecraft successfully on Mars doesn't make it safe. Even if the chance was 50/50 of success for each landing, you could easily, by chance, have three or four successful landings using the same technology that lead to a crash on the fourth or fifth landing. So, say, four prior successful landings prove nothing really.
So, if you have a crashed spacecraft, then that spreads dead humans and food and air and all the microbes inside the spacecraft over the surface of Mars. Probably time to say "goodbye" to planetary protection. Especially as the dust storms on Mars make it a connected system.
You get extremophiles in human habitats. Indeed even in unmanned spacecraft carefully cleaned. Extremophiles are microbes that can withstand extreme environments - it doesn't mean they have to live in extreme environments. For instance microbes that can withstand living in Antarctic granite cliffs, or in radiation cooling ponds, are also found on human clothes. A microbe that is associated with hydrothermal vents was found in a human belly button. A microbe that is one of the best adapted found in an experiment to look for microbes capable of surviving in Mars-like low atmospheric pressure was isolated from a human tongue.
And 99% of all microbes in any habitat generally are unknown, uncultivable. Many entire phyla are only known from DNA fragments - hardly anything known about them, the problem of microbial dark matter.
So in short, if they wanted to protect Mars from Earth microbes, they could not have sent the mission to Mars in the first place.
And to approve humans on Mars would require international consultation and approval at the highest level. Can't be done within the existing planetary protection protocols. And it would indeed potentially impact on the science done searching for life on Mars.
There are many possible habitats for life on Mars - no streams, no grass, no trees, nothing like that is likely. But life on the edge, microbes slowly metabolizing, photosynthesizing. A tiny droplet of water a few mms in diameter is like a "swimming pool" for a microbe, as Nilton Renno memorably put it.
As for whether you could keep a Mars base contained and not let any life escape from it - that seems highly dubious also. Air would probably be vented to deal with CO2 build up - even in the best of closed systems. Human wastes might well need to be disposed of. Even non functioning equipment, packing from supply vessels etc. Every time they open an airlock, then some air escapes into the atmosphere of Mars and some microbes have their chance to fall into a shadow on the ground. If protected from UV light in a shadow, they can then be imbedded in a grain of dust and then potentially be spread anywhere on the planet. Even just walking around in a spacesuit, then they leak air all the time. And what if an astronaut is injured and the spacesuit is damaged? Or there is some damage to the habitat and it leaks air?
If we could land an "inside out" biohazard containment facility with humans and all the microbes that coexist with us as the biohazard to be contained - and do that with such confidence we know it can't crash during landing - well - I don't know if that is possible - and some future spacesuits that simply don't leak air, or if they do, so filtered that not a single microbial spore can escape - will that ever be possible?
I don't know but not yet for sure.
Some say that it is possible, using examples of expeditions through the high Arctic, and doing tests to see if any microbes are detectable leaking from the expedition. But you'd have to be very sure indeed to apply those lessons to Mars. After all a microbial spore can survive for millions of years before it wakens into dormancy. It would just need one viable microbial spore of the correct species, to be imbedded in a grain of the fine Martian dust, and to be carried somewhere in a Martian dust storm - and maybe years, decades later it lands in a habitat where it can reproduce, and spread.
It will be up to astrobiologists primarily to study this carefully. But I think everyone is involved in it, because if we do introduce Earth life to Mars, then this impacts on the entire world, on all the scientists wanting to study Mars in every country. And in all the people who might be benefited by the discovery if we find present day life on Mars that was not brought there by ourselves.
Anyway in the Martian, he just skated over this topic. As is also the case for just about all science fiction stories set on Mars. Indeed I can't think of a single science fiction story or movie that realistically depicts the processes that would be needed to lead to human landings on Mars being permitted under planetary protection policies.
The obvious thing to do is to send the humans to Mars orbit instead, or to Phobos or Deimos. And study Mars indirectly by telepresence, through avatars on the surface.
It might be nice if some science fiction writers were to start to write stories with such scenarios in them, and to show rather more awareness of the need for planetary protection than the token couple of sentences or so in most science fiction - if they cover it at all.
There is lots of awareness of the need of planetary protection for robots on Mars. We all understand that they need to be sterilized, get enough news articles about this so that anyone who follows the topic is probably aware that all our rovers sent to Mars are sterilized in order to prevent them introducing Earth life to Mars.
But as soon as they start talking about humans, for some reason, all ideas of needing to protect Mars from microbes in spacecraft with humans on board is just ignored. Even sometimes in the same story or tv program they talk about need for planetary protection for robotic explorers, then go on to talk about prospects for human bases on Mars but don't mention planetary protection for humans at all. It is very rare that stories about human exploration of Mars - news stories or science fiction - draw much attention to this at all.
Yet, rather obviously, the risk to Mars from a human occupied spacecraft is far higher even than an unsterilized robotic rover, never mind the highly sterilized rovers we send there.
I actually thing that quite possibly, in the fictional universe, by the time that he landed on Mars, even before his accident, Mars was already compromised to the extent that if you found evidence of life on Mars, your first guess would be "Is this life we brought here ourselves?".
While as it is now, if you find e.g. a chiral excess of amino acids or some such, very delicate signals of life processes, then your first assumption would be that this is native Mars life, present day or ancient.
There is a chance we have contaminated Mars already though. Hopefully a very tiny one. And I think we should send missions to Mars to test for that too. Land near to one of our previous rovers, close enough to be able to go up to it and test it for presence of life brought from Earth - should find spores as we believe that they must still survive there. So look at those carefully and see if there is any sign that there is a chance they could be spread further on Mars. If so, and especially if there is any sign that has actually happened, the next question would be, "Can it be reversed"?
If we did find we have already introduced Earth life to Mars, I think the next reaction would be some shock amongst the community of astrobiologists - and also - that we should be very careful not to introduce any more life to Mars while we study the situation and see what we can do about it, if anything.
But the general view seems to be we haven't done so yet. Mainly because Mars is so harsh, and the rovers and landers were pretty well sterilized, probably well enough for such a harsh environment. But to land a human occupied craft there and to risk a crash- it's not at all clear that Mars is suffiicently inhospitable for that to be safe for planetary protection. And by far the most interesting case for astrobiology of course is if Mars does have habitats Earth life could survive in. But that's the veyr situation where we should keep humans far away until or unless we are absolutley sure it is okay to send them.
For some of the possible habitats for life on Mars, see Are There Habitats For Life On Mars? - Salty Seeps, Clear Ice Greenhouses, Ice Fumaroles, Dune Bioreactors,...
I enjoyed the Martian by the way. One of the best, most engrossing science fiction stories I've read for some time and the ingenious solutions and geeky use of bits of spacecraft etc were great fun.
But it's science fiction and you go to science fiction for inspiration and fun ideas, but not for future prediction and realistic future in every detail. Even the hardest of science fiction almost always gets quite a few things wrong. E.g. all the stories about humans not being able to communicate to Earth from the Moon before the lunar landing (because of misunderstanding by science fiction writers of how the heavyside layer works). And Arthur c. Clarke's very hard SF "Fall of Moondust" was written not long before the idea of thick drifts of dust on the Moon deep enough to bury an entire lunar cruiser "bit the dust" for good. There are many other examples. Some also of prescience and new ideas in science fiction - but they go together, even the same story may have some things that later seem absurd or just wrong, and other things that are far seeing and surprisingly accurate.
PLANETARY PROTECTION IS NOT TRAPPING US ON EARTH
This is an answer to a comment, just putting it here as others may have the same question.
It is not trapping us on Earth because Mars is not especially good for humans. It's been way over hyped as some kind of paradise second Earth. It isn't. Its cold, vacuum, no air to breath, cosmic radiation hazard so you wouldn't be able to spend much time out of doors in your spacesuit, requires pressurized spacesuit to get out of doors at all like the Moon, it's far from Earth so you can't get back in an emergency or be supplied from Earth. I don't think it is a natural next step for humans at all irrespective of the planetary protection issues.
The natural place to go is to the Moon, plus building habitats around Earth, if we want to have some humans in space. Or for exploration we could explore the entire solar system via telepresence. Humans in orbit operating avatars on the surface. That way we can explore places that are impossible for us to visit in person.
Mars is far far less habitable than Antarctica, or the sea bed. Nobody lives on the sea bed permanently, even though there is breathable air available just a few tens of meters above. The difficulty of breathing and needing breathing apparatus is enough of a disincentive.
Take away the hype about Mars, it's a place that is far far more inhospitable than the sea bed. The lack of oxygen of sea bed, combined with the lack of resources of a cold dry desert of the Atacama desert. Then also need to protect from cosmic radiation with shielding, and to build your habitats to contain tons per square meter outwards pressure. and if you ever go outside your habitat you need to wear a bulky and clumsy pressurized spacesuit - and if it is damaged, or you just forget to get back to your air supply in time, you are dead.
Astronauts doing spacewalks make it seem easy. But they are professionals highly trained and it is extremely dangerous. Only looks easy because they are so careful and disciplined. And even then, from time to time they have to abort a spacewalk because they decide it is not safe to continue. Walking on Mars would be like doing an EVA from the ISS.
It would be much safer, and more fun from orbit. Then you can control a robot via telepresence on the surface, binocular vision, haptic feedback so you can actually feel things too. And not in any risk yourself; Enhanced vision. Robot doing what it does best and humans doing what they do best.
See also:
Robert Walker's answer to How soon can humans move to and live on Mars?
Robert Walker's answer to Is Mars capable of supporting life?
Nemesis (hypothetical star) was a hypothetical star orbiting our sun at a distance of 1.5 light years. Though it's been pretty much disproved (except just possibly as a very cold brown dwarf) - th...
(more)Nemesis (hypothetical star) was a hypothetical star orbiting our sun at a distance of 1.5 light years. Though it's been pretty much disproved (except just possibly as a very cold brown dwarf) - that's through searching for it, not through theory. So at least 1.5 light years is stable in theory for a star so surely for a planet also.
As for actual planets, this seems to be the exoplanet with the record of the most distant orbit from its star, with a semimajor axis of 1,168 au (about 0.018 light years, 6.74 light days) and an orbital period of 33,081 years
Nobody knows. The Kuiper belt is vast and Oort cloud even vaster.
We do have some limits from the WISE survey - which pretty much rule out extra stars in our solar system. Particularly doesn't seem...
(more)Nobody knows. The Kuiper belt is vast and Oort cloud even vaster.
We do have some limits from the WISE survey - which pretty much rule out extra stars in our solar system. Particularly doesn't seem possible there's an unknown red dwarf out there. A brown dwarf is just about possible - but it would have to be very dark, dim and cold and getting on for half a light year away. More typical brown dwarfs would be spotted right out to ten light years away.
But planets are not ruled out at all. Especially terrestrial ones. There could be Earth or Mars sized planets as close as the outer edge of the Kuiper belt and we wouldn't spot them. And as the new planet X idea shows, could be Neptune sized ones at a distance of several times the distance of Pluto.
LIMITS FROM THE WISE SURVEY
The original paper for the WISE results implications for planets is here:
A SEARCH FOR A DISTANT COMPANION TO THE SUN WITH THE WIDE-FIELD INFRARED SURVEY EXPLORER
The survey is for gas giants, and stars rather than terrestrial planets shining only by reflected light. It was an automated computer search with any tricky borderline cases investigated by hand.
The scans overlapped at the ecliptic poles. Each spot of the sky was photographed twelve times in the ecliptic, but hundreds of times at the poles. So there is no way it can miss planets that are out of the ecliptic - it is more sensitive to those than planets in the ecliptic.
Artist's impression of the Wide Field Infrared Survey Explorer which has produced the tightest constraints to date on Planet X.
It gives strong constraints on a Jupiter or Saturn sized object. A Jupiter sized object must be at least 82,000 au from the sun, and a Saturn sized object at least 28, 000 au. But a brown dwarf can actually be similar in size to Jupiter and also very cold and as well as that, it can be much darker than Jupiter in appearance (though not invisible in reflected light, - our Moon is as dark as worn asphalt and of course, easy to see).
Anyway, apparently it would be possible for a small, dark and very cold five billion year old brown dwarf to be in our solar system at a distance of 26,000 au, even closer than the limit for an undiscovered "Saturn". Even so, that's 650 times the distance to Pluto, or 0.41 light years away - so far away it would take light over 21 weeks to get from the brown dwarf to Earth.
The survey could spot the more usual 150 K brown dwarf out to ten light years away. That's why the idea of an unseen star is getting increasingly unlikely. It couldn't have missed a red dwarf star, or any kind of a star at all. It just possibly could have missed a very dark brown dwarf in a Nemesis type orbit. But brown dwarfs are less common than they used to be thought to be. As a result of the WISE survey again, it's now thought that there are six normal stars for every brown dwarf.
(last part of this is an extract from my new science20 article: Why This New "Planet X" Is No Threat To Earth :). )
BTW I think Planet Nine is a very silly name for it. Surely we can think of a better name, like Nemesis and Tyche were?
First, it depends how you define a planet. To those who think Pluto and Ceres should be called planets, then Neptune is planet 9, and Pluto planet 10, and then it would be planet 11.
It could even be planet 12 or 13 if we find other planets in between it and Neptune.
While if you adopt the IAU definition it is only very borderline a planet. It is almost exactly on the line between a planet and a non planet, just a bit edging towards "planethood". For the emprical definition it might take years or decades to be sure it is a planet.
I think there's at least a possibility that the definition of a planet may change again, a significant number are calling for it to be reconsidered (6,000 have signed the petition and several hundred asked for it to be reconsidered immediately after the decision was made) and then its name might have to change depending on how many planets are now counted between it and the sun.
And what other planet is named by a number? Should we call Earth "Planet 3" and Mercury "Planet 1" etc?
See also my science20.com: Why This New "Planet X" Is No Threat To Earth :).
No, no more than you would need to be worried about the discovery of Neptune in the nineteenth century. It orbits at least three times further than Neptune at its closest.
See also my Why This New "...
(more)No, no more than you would need to be worried about the discovery of Neptune in the nineteenth century. It orbits at least three times further than Neptune at its closest.
See also my Why This New "Planet X" Is No Threat To Earth :).
The chance it is just a coincidence, they make one in 15,000, or three sigma - the point where you think there may be something in it.
So, if you had just the one hypothesis ever, and got only a 1 i...
(more)The chance it is just a coincidence, they make one in 15,000, or three sigma - the point where you think there may be something in it.
So, if you had just the one hypothesis ever, and got only a 1 in 15,000 chance that it doesn't exist, that's a near certainty.
But if you have thousands of astronomers searching for things then from time to time some of them are bound to hit on a 1 in 15,000 chance just by chance.
So you are bound to get a few results of similar probability to this from time to time. Though individually they seem very likely if you are the astronomer who came to this conclusion, when you take into account all the other astronomers looking and the number of hypotheses each one considers in a lifetime - it's not so impressive as it seems at first. That's why they are not saying "We have proved it", but are being professionally cautious about it, although it may seem at first like a near certainty. You might think they should just say it exists, with, on the face of it, a 99.993% certainty that it exists, but that's not how it works in science.
In particle physics, where the experiments generate huge amounts of data, 3 sigma results are common and are often just clusters, patterns in the noise. Collect enough data and you are bound to see 3 sigma results from time to time even if the data is random. They aim for 5 sigma for discovery.
Still it's intriguing and they claim it's the most likely planet X to date.
Also, our most sensitive wide field telescope able to search for planets at this distance, the Subaru telescope, has a decent chance of finding it if it exists.
The Subaru telescope, on Mount Kea in Hawaii, with a wide field of view and sensitive to faint sources, probably has best chance of spotting this new Planet X.
They say it will take about five years to search most of the area it could be hiding in see: Astronomers say a Neptune-sized planet lurks beyond Pluto
- This is an extract from my new article on Science20: Why This New "Planet X" Is No Threat To Earth :).
Actually though most of the stories say it is the first flower to bloom in space, and Scott Kelly tweeted it as such, it turns out that there have been several flowers grown in space before, most r...
(more)Actually though most of the stories say it is the first flower to bloom in space, and Scott Kelly tweeted it as such, it turns out that there have been several flowers grown in space before, most recently in 2012, but the first such was way back in 1982.
http://www.airspacemag.com/space... is Scott Kelly's tweet
"First ever flower grown in space makes its debut! #SpaceFlower #zinnia#YearInSpace"
Here is the CNN news story about it, where Lin Taylor points out that it's actually the second one. Astronauts grow first zinnia flower in space - CNN.com
Another photo of the flowering Zinnia
The variety is the Zinnia 'profusion' orange.
Here are some photos of an earlier plant to flower in space, a sunflower, grown by Don Pettit in 2012.
from: Letters to Earth: Astronaut Don Pettit
And after it had gone to seed
He did it as his own personal experiment in his free time.
But that's not the first flower in space either. According to the Guiness Book of Records, the first flower in space was Arabidopsis in 1982. More details here. They came to flower and then they set seed so completed the full cycle from seed back to seed again. This is a rather unpreposessing plant with small flowers.
"The largest plant was 65 millimeters tall, had 12 green leaves, three tiny pink flowers about 2 millimeters across and a pod 3 millimeters long. When the pods ripened, they burst open to reveal the seeds within. It was great news for the biologists who were keen to receive seeds from a plant grown in space". The story of Space Station MIR page 380.
I can't find any photographs of the plant that show the flowers themselves (there are some black and white photos here with the petals removed for scientific purposes). But this is the species of plant that was first to flower in space.
Interestingly the reason the orange zinnia flowered is because Scott Kelly was given permission to water it when it seemed to need watering rather than on a strict scientifically set out schedule. After a promising start the plants got mouldy from too much water
Eventually they ended up like this, Scott Kelly on Twitter :
"Our plants aren't looking too good. Would be a problem on Mars. I'm going to have to channel my inner Mark Watney."
He was advised to increase the fan rate to dry them out, and cut off all the mouldy leaves.
Some of the plants died but this helped the others.
But then he said they seemed too dry now. He asked for permission to water them on Christmas Eve, but was told by mission control he had to follow the procedures of the scientific experiment. That meant he couldn't water them until the next scheduled watering on 27th December.
But he argued with the ground staff for his case, to be able to water them when needed, rather than according to the experiment protocols.
"At this point, Kelly very politely lost his temper. “I think that would be too late,” he argued with the ground staff. “You know, I think if we’re going to Mars, and we were growing stuff, we would be responsible for deciding when the stuff needed water. Kind of like in my backyard, I look at it and say ‘Oh, maybe I should water the grass today.’ I think this is how this should be handled.”
"Instead of being annoyed at having his project taken over, Smith was ecstatic. He had a volunteer-astronaut willing to care for his plants personally instead of blindly following a pre-set chore list? Best Science Christmas Ever!
"The Veggie team scrapped their book of detailed procedures, and created a streamlined “The Zinnia Care Guide for the On-Orbit Gardener.” Instead of set schedules and procedures, it was a concise set of basic guidelines to help astronaut-gardeners use their human judgement."
From: Astronauts Almost Killed Their First Flowers (Article on Gizmodo by Mika McKinnon).
So, in response he was given more autonomy to water them when he thought they needed watering. And the big complex list of procedures to follow for cultivating the plants, including when exactly to water them got reduced to a single page “The Zinnia Care Guide for the On-Orbit Gardener.” giving him autonomy to do gardening in space basically.
And just over a couple of weeks after that the ones that had survived flowered.
I see here a trend towards increasing astronaut autonomy.
Back in the days of Skylab then astronauts had almost every minute of their day timetabled, they were told exactly what to do and in what order. They had the idea that time in space was so precious, that it had to be strictly timetabled and that any time wasted was like a huge waste and cost.
But then with Skylab 4 the so called "mutiny" lead to new ideas, that astronauts in space like any humans need some free time, if they are there for long periods of time rather than just a day or two as in the earlier missions. Time to relax, to contemplate, think, or for their hobbies.
And they need also to be given some autonomy to decide the order of tasks, when the order is not time critical. For instance during space walks, they'll be told sometimes "Now you have two tasks to do, order doesn't matter, decide for yourself what order to do them." And inside the ISS they have a lot of autonomy deciding what to do in what order, as well as free time to just contemplate the Earth from the Cupola, take photos, do fun experiments of their own, play music, or whatever it is they want to do.
And the result is not less work done in space, but more, and more creativity. The lesson they learnt is that humans in space actually work better when we don't have every last minute of our day timetabled to a strict regime.
There are differing ideas about how much of a "mutiny" this was. It seems a mild affair whatever the details. But it is clear that matters did come to a head in some way and that they had to change the way they dealt with astronauts in orbit, giving them more free time and more autonomy to decide the order in which they did tasks. And that this lead to a more productive expedition right away and has had benefits all the way through to the present day.
So this is a lesson that we are learning gradually. I think that this is a process that will continue in the future. That in future we will see more and more autonomy for the astronauts.
But at the same time, space is a very dangerous place. And your intuitions can easily lead you astray as well.
There's a reason why they go through check lists and have to take many precautions for a space walk for instance. If the astronaut was permitted to just breeze through the checks and do whatever they like, we could have had many accidents.
Simple example - if they were allowed to just swing from hand hold to handhold outside the ISS, without taking precautions of always having at least two tethers connecting them to the ISS at any time, we would probably have had at least a few accidents of astronauts lost in space, unable to return to the ISS or get rescued, or who had things go wrong with their spacesuits because of some mistake made donning them etc.
And it's a small space, and dependent on technology to a high degree. An astronaut who made a serious mistake could endanger the entire crew, easily. On Earth perhaps the closest we have to life on board the ISS is the likes of life inside a submarine that stays submerged for months on end.
So astronauts have to be disciplined people, and willing to follow authority. And happy and comfortable doing so.
The independent thinker who can't stand authority and who always has to make decisions for themselves would be a very unsafe astronaut at present. And probably into the future, also. They would not pass the screening process.
That's not because of any prejudice against people who can't stand authority. It is just that space is not a suitable place for them. Similarly astronauts who suffer from claustrophobia would not be permitted in space (for obvious reasons, they are going to be living for months on end in a confined space not unlike a submarine again).
But within that need for discipline for things where it is absolutely essential at present - I think we'll see more and more autonomy as Kelly showed in a small way by offering to take on the responsibility for himself of deciding when to water his zinnia plants and how much water to give them.
It will be interesting to see how this pans out in future.
For more background:
Letters to Earth: Astronaut Don Pettit about the first flower in space
Astronauts grow first zinnia flower in space - CNN.com - CNN article
Astronauts Almost Killed Their First Flowers
How Mold on Space Station Flowers is Helping Get Us to Mars
No NASA, These Are Not The First Plants To Flower In Space - which has links to papers about the arabidopsis experiments
Growing Pains - about the early and at the time secret Soviet plant growing experiments including the arabidopsis ones.
Greenhouses and their humanizing synergies
And on the Skylab 4 "mutiny", see
William Pogue, Astronaut Who Staged a Strike in Space, Dies at 84
And also discussed further down the page here: 8. ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT - EXTERNAL RELATIONS from LIVING ALOFT: :Human Requirements for Extended Spaceflight
On growing plants in space for food and oxygen, see my
Could Astronauts Get All Their Oxygen From Algae Or Plants? And Their Food Also?
I've put this up as a science blog post on my Science20 blog here Beautiful Edible Orange Zinnia - First Zinnia But Not The First Flower In Space - And Astronaut Choices
It can happen by chance, that's the idea of an "asterism". As others have said there are so many stars in the sky, especially seen through a telescope that you are bound to see many patterns in them.
...
(more)It can happen by chance, that's the idea of an "asterism". As others have said there are so many stars in the sky, especially seen through a telescope that you are bound to see many patterns in them.
Depends how perfect the line is. But this is the Kemble's cascade
Kemble's Cascade Photograph Moore Winter Marathon #17 : Kemble's Cascade by Wayne Young
Quite an impressive Asterism :).
Zoom in on the image:
I make that about 11 stars almost on a straight line depending which ones you count. With the other stars in the "cascade" usually said to have around 20 stars in it.
Another image, high resolution on APOD: APOD: 2010 January 28
And instructions on how to find it in 7 by 50 binoculars: Kemble's Cascade in Camelopardalis
And - the thing is if you did see a row of stars all in a line like that, maybe even straighter than that one - it's an asterism for that particular moment of time only. The stars are continually moving. And it would be a huge coincidence if all those nine stars were travelling parallel to each other at the same speed as seen from Earth. And wouldn't be stable anyway as they would be influenced by the gravitational attraction of each other and other stars.
Here is how some familiar constellations will change with time in the future as animated gifs:
GIFs Show Constellations Transforming Over 150,000 Years
Chart here
Constellations throughout the ages Copyright © 2016 Halcyon Maps & Martin Vargic
I wonder what will happen to Kemble's Cascade 150,000 years from now?
To add to the other answers, here is a painting of the 1860 fireball which slowly grazed the atmosphere.
And article about it in New Scientist Forensic astronomer solves Walt Whitman mystery and For...
(more)To add to the other answers, here is a painting of the 1860 fireball which slowly grazed the atmosphere.
And article about it in New Scientist Forensic astronomer solves Walt Whitman mystery and Forensic astronomer solves Walt Whitman mystery
Then another 1913 Great Meteor Procession which was a spectacular procession of several fireballs one after the other.
Wikipedia has several articles in the topic area and a list of known Earth grazing fireballs here: Earth-grazing fireball
About the 1972 fireball: 1972 Great Daylight Fireball
And a later one, over Czechoslovakia and Poland Earth-grazing meteoroid of 13 October 1990, and several others have been recorded.
Some of them were recorded exiting the atmosphere like that one. With the 1860 one I think it is a case of it continuing through the atmosphere out of sight rather than proved to leave the atmosphere again. and same for the 1913 one - and if it was a slowly decaying natural satellite of the Earth you'd expect it to eventually just break up completely and maybe some pieces survive to the ground. What I read just now searching for information about it didn't seem make it clear on that point whether they grazed and eventually fell to Earth or went off into space again. Anyone know?
But the modern ones in 1972, 1990 etc are examples that were actually observed to leave the atmosphere again so those are definite cases of Earth atmosphere grazing and going off into space again.
This one is from December 24, 2014,
SPMN241214 - a slow moving Earth grazing fireball from December 2014.
Ground track of asteroid SPMN241214 - entered the atmosphere over North Africa and then exited it over the Atlantic west of Spain Preliminary Spectroscopic and Dynamical Analysis of an Earth-Grazer Fireball Observed on December 24, 2014
More examples here: Earth-grazing fireball
Well a few thoughts on this. You could set up such a system small scale, probably - for instance in a large space station. The Russian Bios-3 experiments particularly tested a system with just plan...
(more)Well a few thoughts on this. You could set up such a system small scale, probably - for instance in a large space station. The Russian Bios-3 experiments particularly tested a system with just plants grown by humans and they survived reasonably long term and they got most of the nutrients they needed, though they needed some supplements.
And you can grow the plants with hydroponics or aeroponics. But that involved "gardening" and a fair bit of machinery, their aim was to grow as much as possible in a tiny space.
Still that it works would seem to suggest that it's at least possible a system consisting of just humans and plants would work.
And plenty of people are able to survive on a vegeterian diet - though there's a problem with vitamin B12 - you can't get it from yeast, plants, or seaweed, not in a form that humans can use, so would need to get it somehow from bacteria. Still that would count as a "simple form of life" presumably. So I don't see B12 as a problem really.
Maybe you could even manage with just algae and humans if it is a matter of just surviving but being unhealthy. Problem is that algae don't produce all the nutrients humans need. Maybe they could somehow be genetically engineered to do so?
There's a grim short story by Larry Niven called Inconstant Moon: Bordered in Black which describes this idea of an ecosystem consisting of just algae and humans. Though a system like that would also have to have many other symbiotic microbes that live with humans as we can't survive without them. E.g. in our gut so we can digest food. So it's really algae + humans + human microbiome.
Another thing is - how long would it remain as a planet with only humans.
That's another idea explored in a short Sci. Fi. story that I can't remember the author of - that if you had just humans + a planet with only plants in it - then the humans would diversify and a few millions of years later or perhaps say a hundred million years later, you'd find descendants of humans occupying all the niches animals and birds do here - human originated woodpeckers pecking away at trees and human originated mice like creatures in the grass, and human originated herbivores adapted to eat grass etc. Many would have lost their intelligence as it is probably not optimal for survival if you just need to be a herbivore or a woodpecker, to have to provide for a relatively massive brain.
That may seem a bit dystopian, but it's not really that difference from our present situation where all the animals are distant cousins of us. The only difference is that the tree connecting them goes into the future from us instead of sideways via the past. And would be over such huge timescales that there wouldn't be anyone who is human with a child that's a mouse or a woodpecker or whatever.
In the story then the creatures all had human features, but that's unlikely surely. They'd be at least as different from us as primates are and on such long timescales - well probably as different as any large multicellular creatures are on Earth.
(If you know the title or who wrote this story do say in the comments).
The other thing is how the ecoystem works on long timescales. Nitrogen fixation and CO2 fixation can all be done by plants and microbes. Our planet survived for billions of years with just microbes, and green algae produced the oxygen before there were complex animals to breathe it. So an ecosystem of just microbes is possible, and add in humans and they can breathe the air, add in plants as well, I don't see why it can't still work as an ecosystem.
Interested in other answers here, which is partly why I'm answering this question as it's not had any answers yet. Hope this helps a bit or is interesting anyway.
For some reason most people asked this will say it's because of the lack of a magnetic field. And yes it's true, that is one of many reasons why Mars is no longer Earth like. But it's not the main ...
(more)For some reason most people asked this will say it's because of the lack of a magnetic field. And yes it's true, that is one of many reasons why Mars is no longer Earth like. But it's not the main reason it can't be terraformed now.
It took Mars hundreds of millions of years into the billions of years to lose most of its atmosphere. If you could somehow return an Earth like atmosphere to Mars it could take as long to lose it again.
If that was the only issue you could terraform it and hope it to stay terraformed for at least a few million years. And if it had a thick Earth density atmosphere, that would protect against most of the effects of solar storms.
Without the Earth's magnetic field, we'd still be protected from cosmic radiation and from solar storms, except for the magnetic effects of solar storms which would be devastating for long range power lines and so forth, and even that could be protected against by various methods.
With present day Mars with its near vacuum for an atmosphere, of course solar storms are a big issue. If we did send humans there, they would be limited in the amount of time they could spend per year on the surface in unprotected EVAs before the risk of cancer became too high to be acceptable.
But if you could terraform Mars so that it has an atmosphere as thick as Earth has, then it would protect against solar storms and radiation. Our atmosphere is equivalent to about ten meters of water in its capability to shield against solar storms and radiation.
So you don't really need a magnetic field for that. In the Solar storm of 1859 the main effects were the magnetic effects on long range telegraph lines. For humans, it wasn't an issue at all, no significant radiation levels.
Whether it is ethically responsible to terraform a planet for only a few million years is an issue of course, see my Our Ethical Responsibilities To Baby Terraformed Worlds - Like Parents.
But there's a lot more to it than that.
The fundamental issue isn't so much this lack of a magnetic field, as that it is further away, on the outside edge of the "goldilocks zone" so too cold for a planet like Earth.
It just doesn't get enough sunlight for an ecosystem like ours. To keep warm enough it would need a much warmer "blanket" with significant amounts of some stronger greenhouse gas than CO2, like methane. Which may be how it managed to have liquid water in the early solar system. It may be possible to develop a methane rich atmosphere for Mars if you knew a lot about exoplanets and lifeforms, and how to design ecosystems for them than we do now. An atmosphere like that could be warm enough for liquid water, but it would not be an Earth like atmosphere.
Yes, because of it's lack of magnetic field, it has lost nearly all its atmosphere and all of its oceans. It seems now that it has lost most of it to space, not just lost it as frozen materials in the crust.
A few years back it was reasonable to suppose that the water is still there in the form of ice and the atmosphere in the form of dry ice underground. But that's becoming increasingly unlikely. We know of only enough CO2 to raise it's atmospheric pressure to 2% of Earth's. And though there probably is more, still, it's rather unlikely that there is enough for Earth pressure CO2.
It also has very little by way of ice, and not enough probably for oceans. You sometimes read about how the ice at its poles would be enough for many meters of water over the entire surface. That's true, in a way. But remember that most of the surface is dry to considerable depth. And it may have no water to depths of kilometers below the surface in the equatorial regions. So what would happen to all that water if you warmed up the planet? I don't think there would be much left on the surface.
Then another issue is that Earth's atmosphere wouldn't work at the distance of Mars with half the amount of sunlight. It would become a cold frozen planet, like the past episodes of snowball or slushball Earth.
Even with a 100% Earth pressure CO2 atmosphere, if that was achievable, you might get some liquid water, but it would still be too cold for trees, probably, even at the equator. CO2 is not a strong enough greenhouse gas to make up for that factor of two reduction in the amount of sunlight reaching Mars.
So, ideas for terraforming Mars involve huge megaprojects to double up the amount of sunlight reaching Mars, or to retain most of the heat that gets there with its existing low levels of sunlight.
One idea is a space mirror of size at least 144 million square kilometers, to double up the amount of sunlight received.
Another idea, which is thought to be easier - is to build 200 power plants each with 500 megawatt capacity and leave them running 24/7 for a century to make greenhouse gases from fluorine. You also need to mine 11 cubic kilometers of fluorite ore.
The aim is to release enough CO2 to take it up to the magic figure of 10% of Earth's atmospheric pressure (if it exists) which would then trigger a runaway greenhouse effect, and release any remaining CO2 (if you don't get to that point, then since 1% is a point of stability, any CO2 you release would soon condense back to the poles).
But that's harder to suppose working now that it seems quite probable it has nothing like the right amount of CO2.
But even with a CO2 atmosphere, you'd still need to create greenhouse gases into the indefinite future or use those space mirrors to keep it warm.
And that's just the start of the problems with terraforming it.
You also need somehow to get rid of all the carbon in the CO2, because CO2 is poisonous for humans and animals at percentages above 1%. And you have to add a buffer gas such as nitrogen because a thin pure oxygen atmosphere is a fire risk.
And the result then may not be stable long term. You need to introduce many cycles to get it to work.
Even if there was a second planet same mass as Earth, same distance from the sun etc with no life, even if Earth was one member of a double planet - the Moon was as large as Earth but uninhabited - it still would be a huge challenge to terraform the Earth sized Moon. Because on Earth it took hundreds of millions, and billions of years for the various stages. So you are talking about a massive speedup, and where life is involved, then the results could be unpredictable. Who is to say an oxygen rich atmosphere like ours is the only end state it could end up in? It could easily end up in some different end state that is inhospitable to our form of life.
And - if it was possible to terraform it as quickly as that, within a few thousand years as the Mars Society optimistically estimates for Mars - what's to stop it unterraforming just as quickly? I mean - not necessarily lose its atmosphere again- if it was a runaway greenhouse effect, it might not be possible to lose its atmosphere - but to go to some other end state other than what we find hospitable for humans, or animals? An atmosphere without oxygen for instance?
I think the academic papers are interesting. Intellectually it's a challenge, which can help us understand about how Earth works, about how exoplanets might work, and so on. It might help us understand Mars' past. And who knows, maybe a few centuries from now it may be a possibility for Mars. But it might just as well be that we decide never to terraform Mars, either because we don't know how to do it, or because we think that Mars ismore valuable in itsunterraformed state.
If you terraform Mars, or attempt to, you are doing something that you hope will be valuable a thousand years from now or more, and something that's a mega project with our technology that would cost probably hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars - building 10,000 megawatts of powerplant capacity and mining operations to mine cubic kilometers of fluoride ore on another planet can't come cheap. We are bound to have other priorities, and it's hard to see such a project lasting for a year, or perhaps for a presidential term of eight years if some president was really keen on it. Never mind ten thousand or a hundred thousand years.
But more than that - how do you know that we will want this probably badly terraformed world a thousand or ten thousand years from now? Is it not far more likely that a thousand years from now, they will look back at what we have done to Mars and think "If only they had just left well alone!".
That's especially so given the potential to learn so much from Mars about the origins of life, evolution possibly with a different biochemistry, or if there is no life there, about how a planet works without life on it. It is actually a varied interesting planet, far more than we thought a couple of decades ago, and lots to find out there as it is.
Would you support a project to melt the Antarctic ice cap so that humans can live in Antarctica a little more comfortably? That's a very minor project compared with terraforming Mars.
See also my Trouble With Terraforming Mars and several other articles on Science20 such as Our Ethical Responsibilities To Baby Terraformed Worlds - Like Parents
and other answers here:
etc
The problem with that theory is that there is no precipitation there - not right now - no snow fall at all, or rain. It does get frosts there most mornings, and there are mists / thin clouds - but ...
(more)The problem with that theory is that there is no precipitation there - not right now - no snow fall at all, or rain. It does get frosts there most mornings, and there are mists / thin clouds - but no rain. The only "snow" is carbon dioxide snow at the poles. Dry Ice Snowfall at the Poles of Mars - It Only Happens on Mars: Carbon Dioxide Snow is Falling on the Red Planet - Universe Today
From time to time over geological timescales as the axis tilt changes and the orbit gets more eccentric as well, the atmosphere does get thick enough for rain or snow. That's not so long ago, on the geological timescale, and will happen again in the future - evidence of gullies carved out by flowing water not long ago but that can't happen right now.
The main competing theories are
At present there isn't enough evidence to decide between these theories. The last one is the one most like your idea. There are many papers on the topic, covering all three of these theories.
See also:
Places on Mars to Look for Microbes, Lichens, ...
Water and Brines on Mars: Current Evidence and Implications for MSL
I didn't notice your video. There is ice on Mars, but only at higher latitudes. Some of the RSLs form in the equatorial regions in Valles Marineres. The ground there is dry to some depth.
The problem with ice on Mars in the equatorial regions is that it is not stable. That's because the air is so thin. Water boils at 0C over much of Mars, and at very deep places then it is below boiling point at 0C but only by a few degrees, and ice evaporates given long enough time when the ice is close to or above boiling point. Even at the much colder conditions studied by Phoenix, ice exposed in a trench started to sublimate away over a period of days.
So even if snow did fall it would not be able to remain on the surface to form cornices.
They have searched for ice in the equatorial regions. Have found radar signatures that may be ice below the surface in patches - if so it is probably trapped by an overlying impervious layer to prevent it evaporating.
There is ice on Mars that comes and goes - it's not deposited by snow though, but by water vapour condensing out of the surface. It's like the frost at equatorial regions but lasts for more and more of the day as the winter progresses.
The Many Mysterious Forms of Water on Mars
At lower latitudes then you get frosts in the early morning even in equatorial regions which might be visible from orbit if you took photographs at the right time of day.
But I think the only snow discovered on Mars is Co2 snow. It does have icy clouds, made of ice crystals, but I don't think they ever snow as far as I've heard, not in current Mars.
Though as I said in my answer - at times due to changing axial tilt and more eccentric orbit, then Mars has snow and even rain - good evidence for it. So there could be ancient deposits from those times at the top of the hills for the RSLs. The main question is, if so, how have they lasted for so long without being replenished, producing the RSLs every year?
I'd be very surprised. First, I don't think we are going to send humans to the Mars surface any time soon. The reason is that we are looking for life on Mars both past and present. All the higher l...
(more)I'd be very surprised. First, I don't think we are going to send humans to the Mars surface any time soon. The reason is that we are looking for life on Mars both past and present. All the higher latitudes of Mars - the regions with ice on or near the surface - are marked as special regions on the map (regions where present day life on Mars might be possible) as are some spots in equatorial regions:
All the regions above and below the dotted lines are marked as special regions needing Viking level sterilization or higher, and the new equatorial dark streaks are as well. Curiosity could not land in any of those places. So a human occupied spacecraft which can't be sterilized even to Curiosity standards, nowhere near, can't go anywhere near these regions.
For present day life we are probably looking for nothing more complex than a microbe, or perhaps a lichen. But extremophiles on Earth can survive in conditions similar to ones that may exist on Mars. There's increasing evidence for presence of liquid water on Mars in small quantities, just below the surface - very salty - but still with some potential that it could be habitable for some forms of Earth life. Also some Earth lifeforms can survive in Mars simulation chambers and even photosynthesize and grow even without any water, just using the 100% night time humidity in its cold thin atmosphere.
Any life on Mars, including microbes and lichens, would be a major discovery, and especially so if it is different in some fundamental way. That could include different biochemistry (e.g. RNA only, smaller more primitive cells, not yet evolved to DNA), different cell machinery, even similar to Earth life in all respects except a different way of supplying energy (something different from our mitochondria), or a new form of photosynthesis, or anything new in the complex workings of cells.
The very last thing we want to do is to introduce Earth life to Mars at this stage. Our experiments we could send to Mars are so sensitive that they could detect a single amino acid in a sample. Earth life could make present day Mars life extinct (especially if it is a simpler earlier form of life), and even if it didn't, it would make it very hard to study.
Generally agreed that the very last thing we want to happen is to go to Mars only to discover life we brought there ourself.
So, I can't see an international body of astrobiologists ever approving a human mission to the Mars surface at our current level of understanding. They would surely just say "more research needed" as they have said every time they've been asked to debate this so far. They'd be professionally responsible for affirming that it is safe to send humans to Mars for planetary protection, that would be the point in it - and how could they be sure of that?
And returning a sample from Mars with no life in it would prove nothing. Return samples from the core of the Atacama desert, and if you don't know exactly where to look, they probably won't have life in them either. And a lifeless Mars also would need to be protected if it has habitats for life, so we can study how a terrestrial world works when it hasn't got any life in it. Whatever we find on Mars, the nearest other planet resembling it is surely light years away around another star, so it's not a "throwaway planet" we can blindly drop Earth life onto to see what happens. And doing that anyway is not an experiment. An experiment needs a hypothesis to test, a control etc. Accidentally dropping life on Mars with no plan behind it, is just mucking about.
Some people have suggested that it might be possible to land humans in the equatorial region of Mars and then send sterilized automated rovers from the base to regions of special interest to find samples for them to study.
But Mars is a connected planet, with its global dust storms. And the dust storms cut out most of the sunlight and the iron oxides in the dust would protect any imbedded spores from UV light. So, with trillions of spores surely scattered around the human occupied base - escaped from airlocks, from spacesuits (designs leak constantly) vented air from the habitats, probably human wastes also - how can you guarantee not to contaminate Mars?
But the worst thing is, that there's going to be a reasonably high chance of a crash on Mars, bound to be. It would be a risky thing to send humans there. The seven minutes of terror landing is the most risky part, but there are risks earlier also, such as the insertion burn.
So how can Mars be protected in the event of a human occupied ship crashing there? Especially if it involves a failed insertion burn, maybe one that goes on for a little too long, resulting in them hitting anywhere in the equatorial regions of Mars? They could hit one of those special regions - especially since the aim would be to land the base close enough to a special region such as the warm seasonal flows, to study it remotely.
So, it seems obvious to me that the first human expeditions to go to Mars will be to Mars orbit, not to the surface, especially if it is done as soon as the 2030s. I think that this will turn out to be the only kind of expedition that could be approved internationally at current stage of knowledge. Far safer for the crew also, as you don't have the landing on Mars and can explore the surface telerobotically from orbit, or from its moons Phobos or Deimos. And you can get back to Earth far more easily.
I think it would also be a "ballistic transfer orbit". This is a special recently discovered type of orbit which gets you into orbit around Mars with possibly no insertion burn at all. If you launch it from Earth on the right trajectory, then it ends up just in front of Mars as Mars catches up, a long distance from Mars, and gently falls into a Mars orbit.
Eventually after a few whirls around Mars, it would fall out of that orbit just as easily as it fell into it - but you then start lowering its orbit with ion thrusters. Whether it saves any fuel is dubious. There is less fuel for a distant orbit as you save on the insertion burn, but not less fuel if you want to get close to Mars. But it does have the advantage there is no all or nothing insertion burn. Instead like the Dawn spacecraft, very gentle process, gradually go down to lower orbits.
This has huge advantages for planetary protection as there is almost no chance at all of your human occupied spacecraft hitting Mars by accident. And the lowering of orbit is done by the much more efficient ion thrusters. So there might be a saving of mass there, and at any rate, not going to be hugely more fuel than a more conventional Hohmann transfer orbit. It has other advantages too, as you can do this type of transfer at any time, no matter what the relative positions of Earth and Mars, not just once every two years as for Hohmann transfer.
And Mars from orbit looks homely, like Earth. I think that would help psychologically, very like orbiting Earth from the ISS.
And you'd get more science done that way. Depending on the orbit, one possibility is this one:
One Orbit Flyby, Time 100x: Mars Molniya Orbit Telerobotic Exploration in HERRO Mission Proposal
You come close to Mars twice a day on the sunny side every day as it is a sun synchronous precessing orbit. Result is that you see the entire surface of Mars in full sunlight every day. So can control robots anywhere on the surface of Mars in full sunlight with close up telepresence at least once a day.
I think that's one of the most likely first human missions to Mars, because it's also a fuel efficient orbit to get into, similar to Mars capture for the insertion burn. It would be equally easy to get into with ion thrusters and ballistic transfer. And has a good pace to it, every twelve hours you are close to Mars, can explore it with telepresence, do experiments with robot avatars on the surface with hand eye co-ordination, binocular vision and haptic feedback (you can feel the things you touch). Also with streaming HD video and telemetry of everything you do so people back on Earth also can look at everything you saw, and maybe spot things you didn't. It would be a very involving mission therefore as well, and good for citizen science.
Another likely first mission is Robert Zubrin's "double Athena"- the idea is you do a close flyby of Mars, which then puts you into an almost Mars like orbit, you shadow Mars for half its orbit, so about one Earth year, gradually getting further from it, then back to it, then another flyby sends you back to Earth. It's a good mission profile, total only 700 days. And it doesn't have an insertion burn, because you do a double flyby, not an insertion into Mars capture orbit. And is very safe, it's a "free return" mission. So long as you get on the right trajectory, when you leave Earth, you are already on the right trajectory to get back to Earth 700 days later. Only minor course corrections needed from then on. So that also seems pretty safe for planetary protection too, without the problematical insertion burn of Hohmann transfer.
Inspiration Mars is also a "free return" mission but with one flyby only, and leaves Mars quickly, so gives you only hours of close up telepresence for Marss, requires a flyby of Venus on the way back, which is a bonus, but again not much time in vicinity of Venus, and has a far faster return to Earth so it's more of a challenge to shed that speed when you get to Earth in the Earth's atmosphere or however it is done. But the advantage of only 500 days instead of 700 days. But if we are at the point where 500 days is thought to be far safer than 700 days I think we are sailing too close to the edge for human safety, taking too many risks. I think we should do either only once we are confident we can do multiyear missions sasfely. There is enough to go wrong anyway, it's dangerous enough anyway without doing missions that are stretching human survivability to the limit.
So - any of those missions are far easier than a mission to land on the surface of Mars, so could be done sooner. Still, I'd be astonished if we can do any of them by the 2030s, unless we can find a way to get to Mars in days or weeks rather than months. Because for decades we've been shuttling back and forth from LEO, with lifeboats always attached to the space stations that can take our astronauts back to Earth within hours.
I think it is enough of a big step forward to go to the Moon, where it would take two days to get back to Earth in an emergency. Two days is a long time in an environment where there is no air to breathe except in the spaceship. The Apollo astronauts may have made it seemed easy but it was extremely hazardous and only worked because they were well trained, and also experts able to be calm and collected in emergencies. The likes of you and me would probably have died in the Apollo 13 situation (unless you happen to be a trained astronaut or jet pilot or similasr) just panicking and not communicating clearly with Houston etc. Or indeed the lunar landing itself, the first one especially, you'd need to be very skilled and cool and collected also to do that.
If we go back to the Moon, as ESA plans to do and maybe USA will join in in the future (at present they are restricted in what they can do by Barrack Obama's declaration that USA will go straight to Mars and not go to the Moon first) - it's still a hazardous place for humans. We'd have to deal with the extremely cold lunar night, for 14 days. We'd have to learn to be able to rely less and less on supplies from Earth because of the expense of sending supplies to the Moon. And there is lots to find out there. We have reached the stage of the early Antarctic explorers so far, who had got as far as landing a few parties on the coasts of Antarctica, but not yet sent anyone to explore the interior. Our next expeditions to the Moon would be like the first missions to explore the mountains and interior of Antarctica. There's lots to discover there. We can't do it all from orbit around the Moon.
Once we have the ability to keep people on the Moon for a couple of years at a time with no resupply from Earth, and solved problems of reliable closed systems (which we don't have yet on the ISS) and growing their own food - then we may be ready for interplanetary missions. But I wouldn't be surprised at all if there are many surprises and things to fix before we are confident with lunar long term missions.
Right now, no astronaut has ever spent as much time in space as would be needed for a mission to Mars and back. And though one cosmonaut has spent fourteen months in space, and returned to Earth remarkably healthy, that's Valeri Polyakov, that's still way short of two and a half years - and he could be an outlier case. One person surviving in space for fourteen years doesn't prove that everyone will survive at the end of a two and a half year voyage. For more on this, see Robert Walker's answer to What is the longest time an astronaut can spend in space before it is too hard to re-acclimatize to Earth?
I'm sure that can be solved. Apart from anything else, we can use artificial gravity, with either a tether spin, or short arm centrifuges, depending on which works best, to deal with perhaps all the problems of zero g.
The other thing that could make it possible is if we find some very fast way to get to Mars. It would be much easier if we could get to Mars and back again within a month, for instance, instead of it taking getting on for two years, or more than two years if you spend any time in the vicinity of Mars.
A mission to a place that is one week of travel away from Earth would be a reasonable next step after a mission to the Moon. But a mission to a place that is in worst case two years travel away from Earth seems a step too far.
I think it is possible by the 2030s to go to Mars orbit, but I'd be astonished if we do get to that point by then. Pleasantly surprised. Could happen through either
In the last case we do need to be especially careful as regards planetary protection that we are just as careful for every one of the perhaps dozens of supply missions to Mars orbit before we send the first human missions. You'd send the supplies in advance, just as for the surface. Make sure you have at lest two spaceships in Mars orbit fueled up and ready to return your astronauts to Earth before you send humans there. But even then it is a bit risky, as we've had some close shaves with the ISS that were saved because it was easy to resupply to it from Earth.
Even sending loads of supplies in advance, it's not guaranteed that you send the right things. If for instance the problem is some component that is not suited for purpose, then having three copies of it might just mean three things that don't work. Like the reaction wheels, the early reaction wheels that started to fail, and they had backups but those also failed. We don't want our Mars expedition to have to rely on unproven technology like that.
So, needs care, and to go one step at a time. That was the key to success for Apollo. If they had just sent a mission to the Moon right away without the Gemini and Apollo series of missions, it might have worked, but there would have been a good chance ofd it failing. Even Apollo 10 which went nearly all the way tothe surface of the Moon but then went back to Earth without ever landing, turned up an issue that would have probably killed the crew if they had landed.
Just to say, if you try this test you could add a curve ball that would catch out just about anyone who has looked it up on the internet probably.
They will probably come up with something like:
(more)
- for ...
Just to say, if you try this test you could add a curve ball that would catch out just about anyone who has looked it up on the internet probably.
They will probably come up with something like:
- for i in range(1, 100):
- if i % 3 == 0 and i % 5 == 0:
- print "FizzBuzz"
- elif i % 3 == 0:
- print "Fizz"
- elif i % 5 == 0:
- print "Buzz"
- else:
- print i
see
Which is a perfectly good solution to the problem.
After they've written their solution, then ask them to edit it to add an extra case to say "Bang" if the number is divisible by 7. And another case add "Click" if divisible by 11.
That will test how good they are at writing code that can be extended easily to cope with new cases.
Here is how I would do it - I'm a c programmer so here it is in c:
- int i=0;
- char token[100];
- for(i=0;i<100;i++)
- {
- token[0]='\0';
- if(i%3==0)
- strcat(token,"Fizz");
- if(i%5==0)
- strcat(token,"Buzz");
- if(token[0]=='\0')
- sprintf(token,"%d",i);
- printf(token);
- }
It avoids the duplication, and to a c programmer I think a bit easier to read.
Especially, it's easy to add more cases if the specification changes in the future
- int i=0;
- char token[100];
- for(i=0;i<100;i++)
- {
- token[0]='\0';
- if(i%3==0)
- strcat(token,"Fizz");
- if(i%5==0)
- strcat(token,"Buzz");
- if(i%7==0)
- strcat(token,"Bang");
- if(i%11==0)
- strcat(token,"Click");
- if(token[0]=='\0')
- sprintf(token,"%d",i);
- printf(token);
- }
or whatever. It's easily extendable.
While the version suggested would get much more complicated if you add even just one more case, and the more you add the more tricky it would become to make sure you have covered all bases.
It would have to be
- if i % 3 == 0 and i % 5 == 0:
- print "FizzBuzz"
- elif i % 3 == 0 and i%5 == 0 and i % 7 == 0:
- print "FizzBuzzBang"
- elif i % 3 == 0 and i % 7 == 0:
- print "FizzBang"
- elif i % 5 == 0 and i % 7 == 0:
- print "BuzzBang"
- elif i % 3 == 0:
- print "Fizz"
- elif i % 5 == 0:
- print "Buzz"
- elif i % 7 == 0:
- print "Bang"
- else
- print i
And that's just got us as far as the i%7 == 0 case. Each new case would approximately double the number of cases to consider, instead of just adding one case. And it would be very easy to miss out a case or two there and so create buggy code.
So - though in this tiny code example it doesn't make a significant difference, for as long as you have only two cases to consider, I think this idea of looking for a neat solution can help you to make easy to edit code, less likely for you or anyone else to introduce bugs while editing it in the future.
So, if you want to be a bit sneaky, you could ask your candidate to do the Fizz Buzz test. They probably know it off by heart. Then say "Now add an extra case, if the number is divisible by 7 print "Bang"
And after they struggle with that, then say "Now add the case if number is divisible by 11 print "Click"
That might teach them something about writing code that is easily extensible in the future :).
So - you wouldn't expect them to sort it out right away, but you could learn something perhaps from watching what they do.
That's my top priority as a programmer actually. Nowadays speed of code is of no relevance at all iln most situations, except when optimizing a very tight loop or if a function is extremely inefficiently coded. But code that is easily extended to more cases is a huge time saver.
How you program it would depend on how you think it is likely to be generalized in the future.
So for instance, suppose instead the new spec is exactly as before but you need to write "foo" instead of "Fizzbuzz", then my version is no good for that.
Instead you need to go back to the else if version and have
- if(i%15==0)
- printf("Foo");
So, you are bound to often make wrong guesses about future generalization, unless you already know what the future specs will be which is rare - but thinking about it often means you do save time, although from time to time it means you have to rewrite your code, but you are less likely to need to rewrite your code I think than if you don't think about it at all.
See discussion: https://www.quora.com/Are-there-...
Yes, it's quite common it seems:
I'm not sure he has a plan. In an interview he talked about dropping nuclear weapons on the pole, but it was an off the cuff remark which I am pretty sure was meant to be taken humorously. Many sci...
(more)I'm not sure he has a plan. In an interview he talked about dropping nuclear weapons on the pole, but it was an off the cuff remark which I am pretty sure was meant to be taken humorously. Many scientists pointed out soon after that it couldn't work, just not enough power in nuclear weapons to do it, even if there is enough ice / CO2 which is also unknown. This was my answer here on Quora which I also did as a science blog post.
He later on said that he meant lots of nuclear weapons exploding continuously to form a mini sun above Mars or some such, which is a way out science fiction idea we are nowhere near able to do at present. See Elon Musk Clarifies His Plan to "Nuke Mars"
Whether we can terraform Mars or not, the most optimistic estimates make it a thousand year process to get to the point where trees can grow there, which would however also involve some way of keeping it warm, as even an Earth pressure atmosphere of pure CO2 at distance of Mars would not keep it warm enough for trees to grow. You'd need to either use space mirrors comparable in area to the planet itself (which is possible perhaps using thin film mirrors, but a big mega project), or else, lots of greenhouse gases, really large scale production, mining cubic kilometers of material a century, every century, to make the gases and many nuclear power stations on Mars whose sole task is to provide power for making the greenhouse gases to keep the planet warm (which though a mega project again, may be easier than the idea of space mirrors of total surface area millions of square kilometers to double the amount of sunlight on Mars - cross sectional area of Mars is about 144 million square kilometers so you'd need at least that much by way of mirrors to double the radiation)
That's the conclusion of scientists who have studied this in some detail - especially Chris McKay has done some detailed papers on the requirements for terraforming Mars.
And it's also making some optimistic assumptions about the amount of CO2 on Mars. We only know of enough CO2 there to double the thickness of its atmosphere. To get started on a runaway CO2 warming would require ten times the thickness of its current atmosphere - and it can only get as thick as the amount of CO2 there permits. Based on what we know for sure at present, it could only get to 2% of Earth's atmospheric pressure. Well below the Armstrong limit of 10% below which humans need pressurized suits because even with oxygen masks the moisture in their lungs would boil and you'd die quickly without a pressurized suit. And because 1% is a point of stability then even 2% would not be a stable atmosphere - it would soon re-condense at the poles, so to keep it at 2% would require mirrors or greenhouse gases being produced continuously.
It's a big mega engineering project. And that's the "easy way" to do it. I think it is far too soon to think about actually starting on such a project, given that we find it hard enough to keep a space project going for a couple of decades never mind a thousand years.
There's also lots to go wrong. And the thing is, we could do things like accidentally introduce lifeforms to Mars right now that could cause problems for terraforming later on if they find an easier way to do it. And it gets in the way of scientific investigation - can't study Mars as it is now, if there are people who are busily trying to turn it into something else - e.g. things like the dry ice geysers, and especially the search for life and present day life on Mars - if it exists, what it is like etc
See my Trouble With Terraforming Mars
As far as I know he hasn't published or talked in any detail about such ideas. Or about life support for that matter for the human crew for missions to Mars, or dealing with problems of zero g or artificial gravity etc. He's a rocket person, focusing on the issue of how to send large amounts of mass from Earth to Mars. I suppose he probably thinks the other problems will sort themselves out once you've worked out how to send lots of mass there.
But - I don't think he has detailed ideas at all for what happens next. If he has, he hasn't shared them publicly as far as I know. The Mars Society think that it is possible, but they think in terms of a thousand year project to get to the point of air breathers and vegetation, and several thousand years after that to get to the point of an oxygen rich atmosphere (Chris McKay thinks 100,000 years), which they think is eventually possible, of course maintained using mirrors and greenhouse gases to keep the planet warm. An atmosphere breathable by humans would have at most 1% CO2, because CO2 is poisonous to us, it's not just lack of oxygen that kills when you have too much CO2 in the atmosphere - you can die of CO2 poisoning with plenty of oxygen.
So then - a breathable atmosphere has at most 1% CO2, with the rest oxygen and some buffer gas, perhaps nitrogen though whether Mars has enough nitrogen is again dubious and would require extracting it from nitrate rocks. So it would be much less warming than a pure CO2 atmosphere so you would need to step up the greenhouse gas production or use more space mirrors at that point.
As you can see, the science fiction ideas of the Mars Trilogy involve a fair bit of poetic license,speeding up the Mars Society ideas from 1000s of years to a few generations and ignoring a fair number of technical difficulties. As is of course very common in Sci-fi. In the interests of a good story.
It would continue to support life, but not as now. It would get half the amount of sunlight it does now and the oceans would freeze over. Even at our distance from the sun, the Earth has nearly fro...
(more)It would continue to support life, but not as now. It would get half the amount of sunlight it does now and the oceans would freeze over. Even at our distance from the sun, the Earth has nearly frozen over completely several times in the geological past. So it doesn't take that much of a change to change it into a "snowball" or "slushball" planet.
Our atmosphere, though pretty good at retaining heat - still is not warm enough to keep Mars warm enough for free water on Mars. Even an Earth pressure atmosphere consisting of just CO2 is not warm enough for Mars. Even a CO2 Earth pressure atmosphere on Mars, though it might well give you open liquid water at the equator, would probably be too cold for trees.
It's a bit of a mystery how early Mars could have had oceans with shore lines, deltas etc though the evidence for this is now quite strong.
Perhaps its river systems were liquid only when the planet was closest to the sun at times when it had very elliptical orbits (its eccentricity varies a lot over timescales of hundreds of millions of years unlike Earth which has pretty much the same eccentricity all the time). And the oceans perhaps were ice covered much of the year.
Or, as an alternative, perhaps it had enough of some super strong greenhouse gas like methane to keep the oceans warm, in which case it might have had abundant liquid water just like on Earth but a rather different atmosphere rich in methane.
The water could also be kept liquid locally in places by geothermal heat with heat sources near the surface like the hot pools in Iceland. Or could flood out from such a source and then cool down once released.
But it's a bit difficult to see how you could have a lake on Mars without it freezing over. fairly quickly. Once frozen over though, it would be liquid below the surface for a long time. For instance if you had flash floods which filled a crater, the water in the crater could then be liquid for a thousand years gradually freezing over from the top. Similarly a lake on Mars could stay liquid for a thousand years or more if it was created say by an impact or a volcanic eruption which melted many cubic kilometers of ice, and heated up the rocks below perhaps creating short lived thermal heating.
However there is some life on Earth even in Antarctica, so even with the Earth frozen over in an almost snowball Earth, there would be some liquid water, just as there was for Mars. Especially if you let it have an elliptical orbit like Mars itself. But it might be mainly microbial, as well as lichens. It could have more complex life under the surface around hydrothermal vents.
And that's pretty much the type of life we are looking for on Mars. Though Mars is very cold today, and almost no atmosphere, it's still possible that it has microbial life and lichens on the surface, for instance, cyanobacteria which need bare minimum of water and survive as single species ecosystems using only a few trace elements from minerals and get nearly everything else from the CO2 in the atmosphere, what water it can get hold of, sunlight - and needs a source of nitrogen, but there are nitrates on Mars. It could also have lichens, and of course could be lifeforms that are unique to Mars that perhaps would occupy similar niches.
It also is not totally geologically inactive, in the geologically recent past it has had eruptions. None right now that we can see. But it might have geological hot spots underground which might be a source of interesting chemistry and heat. The methane plumes just possibly could point to present day life that is still existing in some habitat like that - though they could also be plumes of methane released from clathrates, created in early Mars by life but not presently - or created only by non biological causes.
And by the way, Mars gets half the sunlight of Earth, and it has a third of the gravity so needs about three times as much mass per square meter in its atmosphere to achieve the same atmospheric pressure. So that means that photosynthesis would have to work six times harder to achieve the same levels of oxygen.
If you moved Earth out to Mars, that would deal with the pressure issue for Mars as the gravity is obviously the same. So, the photosynthesis would only have to work twice as hard for the same level of oxygen. And oxygen would decline only over many centuries and thousands of years.
Still long term, if you could achieve the same vegetation levels as Earth somehow, it would have less oxygen probably in equilibrium.
But it wouldn't have as much vegetation as Earth. So with less vegetation as well because of the ice, just some cyanobacteria and lichen in patches, slow growing - and oceans frozen over, then long term it would surely lose a lot of its oxygen.
Without the plants to take CO2 out of the atmosphere and with the oceans frozen over, so that they can't absorb it either - it would gradually build up a denser CO2 atmosphere from volcanic action - which is how Earth got out of its snowball / slushball phases. But at the distance of Mars, then that wouldn't be enough to achieve a climate like our Earth.
So I expect it would stabilize with an atmosphere eventually with some oxygen but not nearly as much as we have, much more CO2 in the atmosphere than we do (which given that CO2 is poisonous for humans above 1% would make the atmosphere poisonous to us) and some plants but not nearly as much as we have now. Too cold for trees, but if it had lots of CO2 maybe have some clear water in equatorial regions when close to the sun, like "slushball Earth".
Unless of course some lifeform developed there that produced large quantities of methane which then could keep it warm enough for liquid oceans - instead of the oxygen which works well on our planet because it would otherwise be too hot - but that would be a very different planet from our present Earth.
So, Mars is very interesting, many questions to answer, but it's not a second Earth. It's in the goldilocks zone but only just, and that means life is possible there, even as now with almost no atmosphere - but it's quite hard to achieve the complexity of Earth life though it may be possible in an atmosphere with strong greenhouse gases like methane.
All this of course is assuming life as we know it. For instance one out field idea is that some form of life could be possible in supercritical CO2. If that's true, well not far below the surface of Mars it may have supercritical CO2. And all bets are off when it comes to supercritical CO2 life as we don't have any examples of it.
I don't think it's a given that anyone will, to the Mars surface. We don't have to put a human on Mars, now, or ever. We could send humans to Mars orbit or to Phobos or Deimos for instance.
So many ...
(more)I don't think it's a given that anyone will, to the Mars surface. We don't have to put a human on Mars, now, or ever. We could send humans to Mars orbit or to Phobos or Deimos for instance.
So many news stories and announcements treat it as a given that we have to send humans to Mars. But I don't think it is. We can explore the ideas sure. They are fun ideas that appeal especially to science fiction geeks and movie goers who have seen or read so many fictional stories about humans on Mars. But are they the best ideas to motivate our near future space explorations?
There's another side to all of this which doesn't get nearly as much publicity. And it is seldom covered in the science fiction about Mars.
The main reason why we might hold back from sending humans to the surface right now is to protect Mars from Earth life. Just as we hold back from sending humans or even automated subs into lake Vostock below the ice in Antarctica.
It depends what we find out about Mars. For instance if we find Mars has its own indigenous life, even microbes, we might decide not to send humans to the surface, quite yet or even never, if we determine that Earth life will make Mars life extinct.
There are many possibilities there which might lead us to conclude that:
For instance, if the Mars life is more primitive than Earth life, using RNA only and cells a tenth of the size of the smallest Earth cells, the more advanced Earth life could take over from it if introduced.
Or if the life has the same origin then Earth life could mix its genes with Mars life via gene transfer molecules, or could take over from Mars life in some niches etc. That would make it far harder to study Mars life. Right now, if we find even amino acids with a chiral imbalance that's consistent with life, especially in a potential habitat for life on Mars - it would be a strong indication of the presence of Mars life. Introduce Earth life and then a discovery like that would not necessarily mean Mars life, your first assumption would always be that it's the introduced Earth life.
And if Mars life say split off from Earth life in the early solar system, more than three billion years ago - well the gene transfer mechanisms are so ancient, it's well possible that it could still share genes with Earth life meaning you end up with hybrids that are neither Earth or Mars life - something that the archaea can do with surprising ease.
Or if Mars has no life at all, we may decide it is our only opportunity to study an Earth like planet without any life on it.
To send humans to the Mars surface, especially if there's a risk of a hard landing on a "special region" - regions thought to have a possibility of habitats for Mars life in them - this could close off many possibilities for all future time. We just don't know enough about Mars yet to do an irreversible decision like that.
And different areas of Mars are not completely separate from each other as they are for the Moon where if you drop some life into a lunar crater - first it's never going to reproduce there - but also - it's just going to stay where it was dropped. Even with the Moon - though there are no requirements yet to keep it clean of life for planetary protection - there could be issues if we want to study, say, traces of ancient organics in the ice in the polar regions. But it's not a big deal for the Moon because there is no atmosphere and apart from a bit of micrometeorite gardening - so long as you document where it is that you leave any organic wastes on the Moon or indeed document the location of any crashes with human occupied spacecraft - well the only part of the Moon that is affected is the crash site - or the waste tip itself.
But on Mars with its global dust storms then a crash on Mars or a waste tip there - potentially affects the entire planet. Would need very thorough study. Especially since the dust storm iron oxide particles are good at protection from UV light, so helping to protect microbial spores that are spread around the planet.
What we could do is to send humans to Mars orbit. I think that's what we should do first. It's lower cost, and safer for humans as well as for the planet.
And I'd advocate a particular way of sending humans there also. I think we should use ballistic transfer. That's a special type of transfer orbit recently discovered where you send the spaceship well ahead of Mars and it gently falls by itself into a very distant orbit around Mars when it gets there, without any need for an insertion burn or any extra propulsion at all.
It doesn't really save on fuel if you want to end up in a low Mars orbit. But it has the great advantage that you don't need an insertion burn. Instead you can gently circle down to lower orbits using much more controllable and gentle methods such as ion thrusters. This means almost no chance of an accidental impact into Mars through misfiring the rocket for the insertion burn - for instance longer than it should be fired for.
That's safer for the humans because it eliminates a possible chance of a crash on Mars, and safer for the planet. Because a crash as a result of a misfired insertion burn could end up with the human occupied spacecraft hitting almost anywhere on Mars, at least almost any longtitude and there are special regions known now even in equatorial regions. But as I said, I think because the planet is globally connected through dust storms and its atmosphere, that until we know a lot more about the planet, no humans should land or crash anywhere on the surface. Because we sadly can't be sterilized of Earth microbes and a human occupied spacecraft carries trillions of microbes in tens of thousands of species, many not yet known to science, the so called "microbial dark matter".
It would be a very exciting mission, like the ISS, orbiting above a planet, but not Earth, orbiting in a close orbit above another planet, Mars. And also controlling rovers on the surface in real time, close up telepresence. We'd learn so much and it would be very fulfilling for the astronauts. They could also visit Phobos and Deimos - after first sending robotic missions there to find out about what those tiny moons are like close up - and with prior experience on the Moon to see how much of an impact a human base has on an airless world, and how best to handle such situations.
So anyway - if you then ask the question about that - an orbital mission rather than a surface mission - I think it's possible but I think it would be likely to be a global undertaking involving just about all space faring nations, like the ISS. Probably more expensive than the ISS at least with present day technology. And not sure that it is possible to do it safely yet.
And I think it would probably involve private commercial companies also. And I think that's for at least a decade or two into the future, but could well be longer. We might find that sending humans as far as Mars, even to orbit, is more of a challenge than expected.
I think we should start off with missions closer to Earth such as the Moon, which has lots to learn about. That itself is a pretty huge challenge. The Apollo missions may have made it seem easy but that was a very risky undertaking, and they only spent a couple of days on the Moon each time, and only just scratched the surface of lunar exploration. And we don't have that capability any more, so first we need to rebuild that capability, and show that we can still send humans to the Moon.
It would be a major challenge to do sustained long term exploration of the Moon from a human base there, if that's what we do. Apollo just made a beginning there. It's like the difference between modern Antarctic bases, and the very first missions to Antarctica by Scott, Amundsen, Shackleton etc.
This shows Amundsen's party looking at the Norwegian flag at the South Pole on 14th December 1911. Roald Amundsen
This, and the other early explorations of Antarctica in the late nineteenth century and early twentieth century were just the start of Antarctic exploration, not the end of it.
In the same way the Apollo missions to the Moon surely are just the start of lunar exploration. And since the Moon is so much closer than Mars I think that in the future we will decide that it is the best place to begin our human explorations of the solar systems.
Robotic spacecraft can go into dormancy, and for them, a voyage of many years is not much different from a voyage of a few days. The main difference is the light speed delay when they communicate back to Earth and a weaker signal because they are so far away.
But humans can't do that, not yet anyway. For us, there's a huge difference between a place we can get to with two days of travel and a place that requires six months of travel to get there.
First there could well be microbes on Mars even now. Early on it was as habitable as Earth, possibly. It probably even had oceans as we can trace the ancient shoreline all the way around the Northe...
(more)First there could well be microbes on Mars even now. Early on it was as habitable as Earth, possibly. It probably even had oceans as we can trace the ancient shoreline all the way around the Northern hemisphere, even with deltas. And it certainly had lakes, for instance filling Gale crater, at least temporarily. And we know now from Curiosity that the water was reasonably habitable - not too salty, acid, or alkali for life like life on Earth.
The main problem with Mars as a place for life to originate is that it was at its most habitable for perhaps only a few hundred million years. And then it got very cold. Probably most of the time the lakes and seas were ice covered. Think an Antarctic type world rather than a warm planet like Earth. And gradually lost most of its atmosphere. Except early on. Nowadays, even if it had an Earth pressure atmosphere, it would still be nearly as cold as Antarctica, or Siberia anyway, and would probably not be able to support much vegetation. That's because it gets only half the heat that the Earth does. And it's even worse, it has only a hundredth of the atmospheric pressure of Earth. So it is bitterly cold there. It's most habitable regions are like Antarctica, but at night, get so cold that even at the equator, it gets below the temperature where CO2 would begin to sublimate out of the atmosphere as dry ice, for many nights, every year. At the poles it has thick layers of dry ice.
So, that's how cold it gets. Though in the daytime in the equator it can sometimes get as hot on the surface as 30 C. It has a very shallow "permafrost layer" only a couple of cms deep. A couple of cms below the surface, even at the equator, it never gets above 0 C.
So - could life there have evolved as far as complex lifeforms, or just microbes? Well on Earth, then complex lifeforms like us, plants, everything you think of as life really except microbes - that all dates back to only half a billion years ago. So it took billions of years to get anything even as complex as the tiniest microscopic multicellular lifeforms.
If the pace of evolution was the same on Mars, it probably has microbes at most, and lichens maybe if you are very lucky.
It might have been seeded by life from Earth but that's not as easy as you'd think because only the largest impacts that hit Earth send material all the way to Mars and most of it takes millions of years to get there. Some material gets there within the first century of the impact - but anything that survives that would need to be very hardy, vacuum and cosmic radiation resistant, and also, able to survive in the extremely challenging habitats on Mars when it gets there. And for that matter, find those habitats. Almost anywhere on Earth you'll find a habitat of some sort. But much of Mars, today, may well be uninhabitable, with just a few spots here and there, oases for life, where small numbers of microbes can survive.
(Some think that there may be life in small numbers almost anywhere on Mars however, just saying for completeness, especially those who think that Viking discovered life on Mars already - it's not an impossible view, because life can make use of the 100% night time humidity, in Mars simulation experiments on Earth, even without liquid water, and it has morning frosts even in the equatorial regions - if somehow life can trap the water from the melting frosts before it gets back into the atmosphere, it could create its own microhabitats in that way).
There might all the same be some Earth lifeforms on Mars, of course evolved independently for at least tens of millions of years, but quite possibly for billions of years - on a very different planet.
There could also be native Mars lifeforms that evolved there. Even if just microbes, well the machinery of life is immensely complex. If independently evolved, no reason it needs to use DNA. If it does use DNA then the translation machinery that turns it into messenger RNA bound to be different, at least in detail, as on Earth it is immensely complicated, various forms of error correction etc, so why would it be identical to that if independently evolved?
Or it might just use RNA throughout and not bother with DNA as some think the earliest lifeforms on Earth did. Also, instead of the bulky ribosomes that convert RNA into proteins, it could use ribozymes which are made of RNA only which permits much smaller microbes - in theory anyway. Or might use some other form of "XNA" such as PNA which is more robust than DNA. Many ideas there.
And then - even if based on RNA, it might use different bases from Earth life. Might be mirror life.
Or if the bases are all the same as for Earth life, there could be differences in the translation table that it uses to convert the information in the messenger RNA into amino acids to make proteins.
Indeed seems quite likely if independently evolved that there is some difference somewhere in all that complex machinery.
Or it could be identical in all respects, except, say, that it has a more efficient metabolism. Or that it has a different, maybe better, way of doing photosynthesis (Earth life has at least three significantly different ways of doing photosynthesis - Mars life even based on DNA perhaps might use a fourth method never explored on Earth).
For microbiologists, it would be just immensely fascinating. And this is a form of nanotechnology. Think of all the things we use that are made using lifeforms on Earth? Now imagine if we had some independently evolved life from Mars. It could be quite revolutionary, and surely one of the greatest discoveries in biology.
Also needs great care, can we safely bring such a different lifeform back to Earth? Maybe it is best studied "in situ" on Mars first. If we do find this life there.
As for intelligent creatures, or indeed complex lifeforms - the analogy with Earth suggests it is unlikely that there is anything much more than microbes. But you can put forward an argument in the other direction.
The thing is that on Earth modern multicellular life evolved immediately after a time of great stress, when the planet was almost entirely covered in ice. This is something that happened to Mars probably many more times than for Earth.
One big difference is its at times highly elliptical orbit. Unlike Earth its eccentricity is continually changing, sometimes almost circular, sometimes very elliptical for a terrestrial planet with the result that one hemisphere has much more extreme seasons than the other, and the total amount of light and heat on the planet varies a lot. It might have an ocean covered with an ice sheet that melted and then froze again even as frequently as every two years.
So what does that do to evolution? Does it slow it down? Or maybe, does it speed it up? Was evolution on Earth slower because we had things so good here, so that microbes could just laze around not changing much sometimes for hundreds of millions of years?
If it speeds it up a lot, then might Mars have had plants and complex life early on?
It's really hard to evaluate this, because with only one example of evolution on Earth, we really have no idea how much evolution can vary on other planets. Earth may be typical, or it may be very unusual in various ways. We have no way of knowing.
And - it's now thought by some astronomers, that Mars did have oxygen in its early atmosphere. Maybe not a huge amount but some percentage of oxygen, which is why it ended up being rust red all over. So that also adds to the possibility of complex life, if there was some oxygen they could use, even if much less than on Earth.
But if Mars did have intelligent life there - I'm including things like modern octopuses and squids there - it's surely all gone now. Well - except for some very exotic form of life. Hard to imagine a habitat that is sufficiently rich and complex to sustain complex energy demanding lifeforms on present day Mars. Even on Earth, with all its complex lifeforms, the habitats most like the Mars surface have only microbes, green algae, or occasionally lichens, and no complex lifeforms at all. Not in the most arid, dry, harsh regions that are most similar to Mars.
The only place complex "intelligent" life, at least of the type we have on Earth, could exist is underground.
Mars is geologically similar to Earth with a molten core, and though the surface is cold, temperature rises below the surface. The main difference is that Mars has no continental drift, which is why its few volcanoes grew so very large. And it's still geologically active, though not nearly so much as Earth.
Mars is apparently still volcanically active, in the geologically recent past, and expected to be so again in the future from time to time - and has had occasional lakes, of many cubic kilometers of water due to geological activity - even in the geologically recent past - it's not very active. There is no known present day activity. There might be hot spots and even at a stretch, ice fumaroles not detectable from orbit. Maybe they permit underground water bodies. But it doesn't seem likely - at present anyway - that it has seas underground, or the likes of huge lakes down there. It would be a huge surprise if it does.
It could have a "hydrosphere" very deep down, kilometers down - rock saturated with water and heated from its interior. But again - others think if it has a hydrosphere, it probably has not much water left in it any more. Even the most optimistic there put depths of perhaps of order 100 meters or so of water kilometers below the surface. If it exists, that would be a lot of water on Mars, and a major habitat. It could be, if it is inhabited, the main place where life exists on Mars at least by abundance. But it doesn't seem a likely spot for intelligent life. Maybe if it developed multicellularity, some worm like creatures?
There may be water within cms of the surface in places, just 1 or 2 cms below the surface. But this is habitat expected to be mms thick, and the thickest ones could be of order a cm or so thick. Again not the best place for intelligent life, unless very exotic (sentient lichens??)
As for beings with technology - we can pretty much rule them out. Because our orbiters can observe the surface on well sub meter scales. Better resolution than for the Moon. We would easily see tracks of vehicles and other signs of intelligent life there. Unless you posit that they continually sweep the surface behind them as they move, in order to hide all traces of their presence.
We'd also see traces of herds of animals - which in any case seem impossible because the atmosphere is a near vacuum.
In any case, it's very unlikely that they developed technology equivalent to Earth and then never came to Earth. Obviously if they have it now, they developed it billions of years ago when the planet was more hospitable - how likely is it they would develop it just now? So then why are they not here, why didn't they come to Earth back then when it was much easier, with their technology at its height on a flourishing planet? And if they did come here, why aren't they still here, or did they not like Earth? They would surely have brought complex multicellular life with them.
Unless they were conservationists and stayed on Mars because they wanted to leave Earth, even though only inhabited by microbes, to its own devices, and would rather die on their cold and arid world than interfere with the development of Earth. I suppose that's not impossible. The range of ideas ETs could have is probably far greater than the range of ideas humans have, and so anything a human could dream up almost, is probably a possible belief system for ETs along with many other ideas we can't even think of.
But - I don't think we are going to find technology on Mars myself. At least - would put that right down at the bottom of the list of possibilitites.
For intelligent - non technological life - we could find that on Mars, but if so - well my guess is that it is probably long extinct, leaving only microbes, lichens and such like similar to comparable habitats on EArth.
But we could potentially find intelligent life in the Europa ocean. Where by intelligent I mean anything from e.g. squid / octopus intelligence - or even - sea anemones, worms and so on have a kind of an intelligence - all the way up to maybe an intelligence that is more mature and keener than what we have ourselves. No reason for them to be evolved to exactly same stage of evolution as us. Seems very unlikely. So could be like whatever we might evolve into a few hundred million years into the future, or like our distant past a few hundred million years ago, or some other direction not explored on Earth at all.
I think Europa is our best bet in our solar system to find some form of intelligent life, because it has an oxygen rich ocean. And if there is intelligence there, even human level or more evolved, then without technology, which would be very hard to develop in an ocean without fire, they would not even know that anything exists outside of their totally ice covered ocean. Separated by 100 kilometers of ice from the rest of the solar system.
I think we need to be especially careful, exploring Europa, not to introduce Earth microbes there. Because they could totally disrupt the ecosystem there. Or whatever there is, even might be like the earliest Earth life precursors, not yet evolved to robust modern life, RNA based for instance, no DNA at all, far smaller than any modern living cell on Earth. It might be very vulnerable to even a single microbe of modern Earth based life.
I think we should be careful not to send even a single Earth microbe to Europa until we know for sure what we are dealing with there, or at least a lot more than we do now. For that reason I think it is premature to plan a lander on Europa, unless we can either guarantee it to be 100% sterile, or guarantee that it can't contact the subsurface Europa ocean or other potential habitats vulnerable to Earth life there.
Even dead Earth life, even a package of DNA and other bits of a modern cell could be enough to change Europa, if there is some way it can get into the subsurface ocean from its surface.
What we might be able to do is to send an orbiter to fly through plumes of water geysering up from the interior of Europa 100 kms below. If so that would be awesome and would give a way to sample the subsurface oceans with almost no risk of introducing Earth life there.
Meanwhile maybe we can learn how to achieve 100% sterilization. It's possible by heat treatment - the only problem there is, that 100% sterile spacecraft would be so damaged it would no longer be able to function as a spacecraft, because our electronics and instruments are vulnerable to the same levels of heat that sterilize them. But there are many ideas for ways to sterilize spacecraft, and who knows, maybe some time in the next couple of decades we will achieve 100% sterile spacecraft.
BTW another way spacecraft could be 100% sterile is if they are made in space, say from asteroid material, in conditions that are 100% sterile throughout, so no life is introduced to them in the first place. But that's not achievable at present and is pretty much in the realms of fantasy right now, sadly.
One of the most promising developments is supercritical CO2 snow, which is great for getting rid of not only microbes, but also dead organics as well, which I htink you need to do to explore a place like Europa. But whether that can be 100% sterile I don't know.
To find out more:
Will We Meet ET Microbes On Mars? Why We Should Care Deeply About Them - Like Tigers
As Philae Awakes - Where Might Life And Proto Life Hide In Our Solar System?
UV & Cosmic Radiation On Mars - Why They Aren't Lethal For The "Swimming Pools For Bacteria"
Rhythms From Martian Sands - What Did Our Viking Landers Find in 1976? Astonishingly, We Don't Know
Where Should we Send our Rovers to Mars to Unravel Mystery of Origin of First Living Cells?
They only knew of five planets - the ones which are easy to see with the unaided eye.
That's Venus and Mercury, the two innermost planets, closer to the sun than Earth, which are sometimes visible ...
(more)They only knew of five planets - the ones which are easy to see with the unaided eye.
That's Venus and Mercury, the two innermost planets, closer to the sun than Earth, which are sometimes visible as bright stars at dawn or dusk, and in the early evening or in the morning before the sun rises.
Then Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn which are further away from the sun than us and can be seen at any time of night, depending where they are in their orbit relative to Earth.
Earth of course is also a planet but most of the ancient astronomers didn't know that, so didn't count Earth in their list of planets. Except for Aristarchus in the third century BC. Heliocentrism
That leaves Uranus, Neptune and Pluto, and then there are the largest asteroids, or "minor planets" Ceres and Vesta, which you don't mention in the question, but could potentially have been seen by ancient astronomers.
Uranus is a naked eye object (just) to unaided eye, but it's a challenge, as it just looks like one of the faintest stars. You could theoretically discover that it was a planet with naked eye as a careful, patient, thorough observer. To do that, you'd need to plot all the stars in the sky right down to the very faintest you can see in excellent seeing conditions, and then replot them, and notice that one of the very faintest stars has changed position since the previous night. But it's so faint, it's more likely you'd just conclude you made a mistake first time around, or that you missed it last time you looked.
And actually, it may have been plotted by Hipparchos, in his star catalogue about 128 BC. WAS URANUS OBSERVED BY HIPPARCHUS?
It was observed many times before its final discovery by Hershel in 1681, and even given a star number, when it was in the constellation Taurus, catalogued by the astronomer royal John Flamsteed as 34 Tauri. For more about this, Patrick Moore's Data Book of Astronomy and Uranus
But nobody realized it was a planet until Hershel turned his telescope to it, on March 13, 1781. Hershel was a noted astronomer of his time, who made particularly good telescope mirrors (and large aperture for his day) for observing the stars clearly. He observed it as a disk not just a point of light.
Then Neptune was discovered in the nineteenth century, through a telescopic search based on predictions from perturbations of the orbit of Uranus.
Then in the nineteenth century they found Vesta and Ceres, largest of the asteroids and other asteroids.
Vesta is sometimes bright enough to be seen with the naked eye as well, though never discovered in ancient times. Ceres also might also occasionally be seen with the naked eye by a keen eyed experienced observer from a very dark site.
If You Can Find Mars, You Can Spot Ceres And Vesta Too – Try It!
The Position of Vesta and Ceres in the Night Sky, 2014
Neptune is usually thought to be beyond naked eye visibility. Theoretically it might be possible for a very keen eyed observer to see it in exceptional conditions but I can't find a mention of anyone who has - discussion here: Why has no one seen Neptune with the naked eye?
So theoretically a very patient, careful and thorough ancient astronomer with excellent seeing conditions could have done maps of the entire sky, plotting every star right down to the faintest visible, and then theoretically they could have discovered, Uranus, also Vesta, and potentially Ceres and just possibly, if they found a very keen eyed observer to do the observations, Neptune (though that's a bit of a stretch).
But though they did do star charts, they didn't manage to do it to quite this level of thoroughness and they never discovered them. Tycho Brahe, who made it his life's work to observe the stars with naked eye observations in the 1500s didn't discover Uranus.
It is difficult to plot the positions of the stars in the sky. You could use things like this to do it accurately without a telescope:
(Jantar Mantar, Delhi)
Jantar Mantar - Ancient Astronomical Observatories of India
This observatory was actually built after the invention of the telescope but it was used for naked eye observation. The ancient astronomers could in principle have built something like this and used it to do extremely accurate star maps, but never did (as far as we know anyway).
In ancient times the instrument of choice for star mapping was the Astrolabe which was later developed into the spherical astrolabe or Armillary sphere (Nicolaus Copernicus - Amilliary sphere Observing with the Amilliary sphere,) (see also Hipparchus Astronomical instruments and astrometry)
Tycho Brahe used an especially large four foot diameter Armilliary Sphere for his naked eye observations. With this instrument he made the observations that Kepler then later used to prove that the planets followed elliptical rather than circular orbits.
Pluto is well beyond naked eye visibility.
If you mean blow it to pieces as in Star Wars breaking up in seconds with the pieces flying away at way over escape velocity - no, nowhere near. But that is a totally silly way to blow up a planet :).
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(more)If you mean blow it to pieces as in Star Wars breaking up in seconds with the pieces flying away at way over escape velocity - no, nowhere near. But that is a totally silly way to blow up a planet :).
See this video for a calculation of the energy required and the physics of blowing up a planet Star Wars style.
If you mean a large asteroid impact like the one that ended the dinosaur era - yes probably, though not easily. Yes there are lots of 10 km scale Near Earth Asteroids - nearly 1000 of them in total. Any of those could in principle be deflected to hit Earth, but it would take a while. Unless one of them happens to be headed our way.
When they talk about the possibility of deflecting these asteroids - it's a case of changing it's path by the radius of the Earth over, say a decade or two. Maybe even more quickly than that with nuclear weapons.
Could be just by a few hundred meters though if they do a flyby of Earth in between and have to go through a crucial "keyhole" in order to hit Earth next time around.
That's not much considering that they typically miss Earth by more than the distance to the Moon. The distance to the Moon is 30 Earth diameters, or six Earth radii.
But an impact like that is one that many humans could survive, especially as we'd see it easily years in advance, as we track all those NEOs - we currently know all the ones of 10 km or larger. Even if our opponents are able to stop us from doing anything about it, e.g. military extremist future space colonists who want to destroy the Earth, nightmare future scenario - able to destroy our rockets as they leave the Earth - well still if you get into a submarine, or use fire shelters, stock up on food, maybe some oxygen just for the moment of impact, many would survive.
Indeed, at the moment of impact probably many would survive anywhere a few hundred kilometers outside of the impact zone, though you'd then need to watch out for large meteorite debris from the sky, and firestorms.
After all birds, mammals and turtles to name a few species all survived the dinosaur extinction, and where they can go to survive, we can also with our technology.
If you want to melt the entire crust of the Earth and evaporate its ocean, as happened with the impact that created the Moon, you need a larger impactor. At least a hundred kilometers in diameter. There are plenty of asteroids that big, but it would take much longer to deflect them. Probably best way is to do "asteroid billiards" deflect smaller asteroids, which is far easier to do - and use those to deflect larger ones, and those to deflect even larger ones. The idea is that there will probably be some smaller asteroids that happen to be going in the right direction to give the bigger one a big wallop if they happen to hit it - but always miss. So you deflect them just enough to hit. And those then you deflect just a bit to hit larger asteroids and so on - in a carefully co-ordinated campaign like that, stretching probably over a centuries or millennia, it might be possible with our present day technology - though of course technology would also advance in the meantime.
For the Moon itself, it was a Mars sized impactor, and even that didn't blow the earth into pieces as in Star Wars:
None of this is going to happen naturally though.
We'd see it coming centuries in advance, and it is so improbable, that we can forget about it. The impact history of the inner solar system shows that there have been no large impacts by asteroids larger than 10-20 km in diameter on Mars, Earth, Moon, Mars' moons, Mercury, and what we have of the cratering history of Venus since it's global resurfacing a few hundred million years ago.
And hopefully we are not headed for a future with militaristic space colonists. If we are, well they would be far more fragile than any Earth colony. So unless they had a total monopoly on space technology somehow, can't see them winning. They'd soon destroy themselves or be destroyed in their fragile habitats with nowhere outside of Earth where they can breathe without a spacesuit. And unless deeply buried, any space settlements would be very vulnerable to the kilometers per second impacts you can achieve easily once you have space technology.
Not too likely that they are able to go through the entire process of deflecting asteroids over many centuries with humans on Earth unable to do anything about it. I think the space colonies would be the first to go in any interplanetary warfare.
However, we have luckily managed to avoid warfare in space totally. The outer space treaty ensured that. Before then the US were planning a military base on the Moon. But they dropped the plans when they signed the treaty which prohibits any nation state from claiming territory in space, or siting military bases on celestial bodies, or putting weapons of mass destruction in space. Using an asteroid to destroy the Earth obviously would be a huge violation of the space treaty :).
It's worked so far, and it's in the interest of everyone I think, to make sure that we continue with peaceful exploration of space. Everyone can see that. Even N. Korea has both signed and ratified the Outer Space Treaty.
Actually you could do a one way trip to the Moon and it requires less technology than a two way trip in some ways, as you only need the technology to get there, not to get back.
Indeed, if someone ...
(more)Actually you could do a one way trip to the Moon and it requires less technology than a two way trip in some ways, as you only need the technology to get there, not to get back.
Indeed, if someone was really keen to get to the Moon as quickly as possible with the minimum of development time and initial cost - though probably much higher overall cost, they could do just that.
They had this idea, very early on, had an idea to just send a single astronaut there, who would live on the Moon for some time, resupplied from Earth, very like the Mars one idea for Mars.
"Another approach was the proposal to send a spacecraft on a one-way trip to the moon. In this concept, the astronaut would be deliberately stranded on the lunar surface and resupplied by rockets shot at him for, conceivably, several years until the space agency developed the capability to bring him back!"
That is very like the "Mars One" approach for Mars. Requires less technology to get to the point where you have your first human to the Moon - so - you might get them faster - at an earlier stage in the program.
Though it's more dangerous - any time spent on the Moon is risky, so the longer you spend there, the more chance of dying from space suit failure, damage to your landing module etc. And in the case of the Moon it also means you have to design your landing module to survive the harsh lunar night. I very much doubt it anyone would do this for the Moon especially given how easy it is to escape from the lunar surface to lunar orbit. But it could be done.
For more on this and other early ideas see Chariots For Apollo, ch3-2
The lunar orbit rendezvous one which they eventually used was originally one of the lowest ranked of their mission plans
Lunar Orbit Rendezvous and the Apollo Program
They had already soft landed the lunar Surveyor 1 so certainly had the capability to soft land a supply depot for the astronauts next to their proposed landing site.
The whole thing was a case of balancing risks.
With Mars, you can do a two way trip easily if you go to orbit around Mars and then return. Your astronauts get to orbit Mars much as they orbit Earth in the ISS.
In terms of fuel needed, and if you go to an elliptical Mars capture orbit going close to the Mars surface perhaps twice a day, then it's about equivalent to landing on the Moon - though of course with many challenges for sending a human there.
This is a video I did to show the spectacular Mars capture orbit they could use in the HERRO plan for one way to do this.
Speeded up 100 times, this is a 12 hour orbit. Every day it approaches the middle side of the sunny side of Mars twice, so you get to see both sides of Mars in sunlight up close every 24 hours. That's also when you do most of your surface science and driving things around on the surface, anything that requires fine control. Then as it goes out away from Mars on its long orbit that's when you get to sleep or relax, write up, communicate home, etc. Though you'd still have much tighter control of the surface rovers than anyone on Earth throughout the orbit. The spacecraft shown here is a futuristic one, the "delta flier" from the program Orbiter, not an actual proposed Mars spacecraft.
It's only if you land that it gets hard. The thing is that because of the rocket equation, a small increase in escape velocity means a huge increase in the size of rocket needed to escape from the planet. To send people into orbit from Earth needs massive rockets as we know. To do it from the Moon you just need the lunar ascent module. Mars has 40% of the mass of Earth. So needs large rockets to get back, not quite as large as the Saturn V but much larger than the lunar ascent module which was just the size of a car. And most of the mass needed to get back is the fuel itself.
This makes it much harder to get back from Mars surface to Earth than to get back from the Moon, because you can't just take off from Mars in the equivalent of the lunar module.
One solution, suggested in the "Case for Mars" is to make most of the fuel on Mars, so you end up taking only 6 tons of fuel there. You still need a return rocket large enough to carry the hundred tons of return fuel. Our Final Hour
However I don't think we are going to send humans to the surface of Mars any time soon for planetary protection reasons. Especially when you take account of the global dusts storms, the way all of Mars surface is interconnected as a single system, and the high chance of a hard landing which would end up spilling contents of a human occupied spacecraft over the Mars surface and in case of a targetting error possibly directly hitting a region of special interest.
When the time comes that international COSPAR committee of astrobiologists have to pass the NASA plans for a human landing, I can't see them answering "yes it's fine" - surely as they have done before they will need to say "more research needed".
The very last thing we want to happen is to go to Mars just to discover the life we brought there ourselves - that would be a huge anticlimax to all the searches for life there.
What we can do, right away - is to continue robotic exploration of the surface, controlled from Earth - and also if it makes scientific and economic sense and we sort out the many technical and human challenges - we can send humans to orbit around Mars. They could control robotic avatars on the surface via telepresence, and this would greatly speed up exploration of Mars and science return. Whether you'd find out more that way than you would by a stepped up robotic exploration from Earth is hard to say, given the huge expense of it. But might be more effective. It's probably a lot more effective than sending humans to the surface, because they can control robots anywhere on the surface of Mars from orbit, not just limited to one spot - and you don't need to design a lander for Mars. But as well as that it's also far safer, for humans, and it is far safer for Mars also.
Then leave decisions about whether humans should go to the surface until later when we know more about Mars.
Here are another couple of videos I just found on youtube of a full circle rainbow from the air.
And a couple of links with more images and videos of full circle rainbows:
(more)Here are another couple of videos I just found on youtube of a full circle rainbow from the air.
And a couple of links with more images and videos of full circle rainbows:
Where's the pot of gold? Complete rainbow captured above Niagara Falls
Can you see a whole circle rainbow? | EarthSky.org
A Full Circle Rainbow over Australia APOD: 2014 September 30
You can sometimes see full circle rainbows on the ground also, e.g. in a fountain.
Just to say, there is no known way this could happen astronomically, except in movies. First, from the cratering record we can see that no asteroid that big has hit any of the planets Earth, Mars, ...
(more)Just to say, there is no known way this could happen astronomically, except in movies. First, from the cratering record we can see that no asteroid that big has hit any of the planets Earth, Mars, Venus (for the last few hundred million years which is all we have because of its global resurfacing by lava flows), or our Moon or the moons of Mars for over three billion years. Largest ones were 10 - 20 km in size.
Also there is no way any really big asteroid could hit us with only one week notice. Our new telescopes such as Pan-STARRS in Hawaii can spot a 10 km asteroid well beyond the orbit of Jupiter and has mapped all the Near Earth Objects of 10 km size or larger (and 90% of the 1 km asteroids, finds a new one of those every month and expects to reach 99% in the 2020s).
So we would have more than half a year of notice of any really big asteroid approaching Earth from the outer solar system. That's for asteroids of 10 km upwards. Some humans at least would surely survive such an impact, in fireproof shelters (which the dinosaurs didn't have), in submarines, or for that matter just by traveling to the opposite side of the world and keeping away from anything that could burn in a firestorm, and protecting themselves as best they can from the worst of the meteorite debris of smaller meteorites that would start falling over the entire world after the impact (underground shelters etc). And you'd do your best to stockpile food for the years following, preserve important seeds and animals, and so on. The dinosaurs couldn't do this - if they could they would probably still be here.
They can also be deflected however, given enough lead time, as it only requires a fraction of a meter per second change in delta v to eventually shift it far enough in its orbit to miss Earth a few years later. It is the one natural disaster that can not only be predicted to the minute given enough data - but also prevented, if you have sufficient lead time.
RISK FROM A SMALLER ASTEROID
You could be hit by a smaller asteroid - though so far there are no confirmed cases of anyone killed by an asteroid in recorded history. It's an improbable event, much more likely to die in other ways. But there is a tiny chance, statistically about 91 people a year on average could expect to be killed by asteroids every year - but that's averaged over millions of years. At present equally divided between the smaller asteroids and the ones of 0ne kilometer size or larger. But so rare that it could be centuries before anything like that happens. Even for the 100 meter size asteroid, we'd expect one every thousand years or so.
This probability will go down once we reach the target of finding 90% of all asteroids of 140 meters or larger, then the expected number of people to die per year from asteroids will drop to 31, unless of course we find an asteroid headed our way by then - in which case will be a matter of finding out how to deflect it, or for the more likely smaller ones, just evacuate the impact zone.
For the statistics, see graph on page 322 of "Estimating the NEO Population and Impact Risk: Past, Present and Future
After discovery of 90% of the 140 meter or larger asteroids, whenever that happens - mandate by Congress is to find them somehow by the 2020s, the curve will be
OTHER WAYS WE COULD DIE
There are several other possibilities including a gamma ray burst, for instance. But there are no known nearby stars likely to go supernova or produce a gamma ray burst close enough to make us extinct at present, or for millions of years into the future.
Basically we can forget about worrying about natural human extinction causing events at present. It certainly could happen over the timescale of hundreds of millions of years, but there is no imminent possibility.
WHAT DOES IT MATTER IF EVERYONE DIES OR JUST ME
In any case why would everyone go crazy if they know we are going to go extinct?
We don't have any experience of this to go on, but something similar happens to many people every year who are told they have only weeks or months to live, due to a medical condition, or could be even less time than that. They don't go mad, go out shop lifting, commit crimes, try to escape to mountains etc.
If there was a chance of escaping, then of course you'd do your best to find a way. But if not, well it is just like finding out you have cancer. Why panic if there is nothing you can do about it?
So, I don't think we'd get world wide panic myself if we found the Earth was about to be destroyed. Shock yes. Gradually coming to terms with it. Some people might go a bit crazy, but it's really not that much different from all of us simultaneously being told we have a medical condition which means we have only a week left of our life.
You would get the panic conditions if there was a chance of survival, but only a few people could survive. I think you'd just get shock, not panic, if nobody can survive.
I know this doesn't directly answer the question, rather it goes to the assumptions behind the question.
But to answer the question - not that much different from what I'd do if I had only a week to live. There's a story about the Tibetans when they knew that the Chinese were invading Tibet and destroying their buildings and traces of the Tibetan religion which they saw as contrary to their own communist beliefs. Deeply religious, the Tibetans affirmed their beliefs and celebrated their way of life by building new monasteries and stupas, knowing that they would be destroyed.
I think something like that would be a good way to proceed, To do something positive, something you feel is really worthwhile. Whatever that might be, which of course will be different for different people. Even though it is due to be destroyed.
And to help others, comfort them, do what you can from your love, compassion, and wisdom - even with just a week for everyone, there is much you can do to help others just as you can help someone who is dying of cancer in the last week of their life just being there with them.
But we don't need to worry about it as there is no immediate chance of it happening for probably hundreds of millions of years. Enough time probably for humans to evolve again a second time from the smallest microscopic multi-cellular lifeforms. And who knows what the situation might be then?
For more on this, see Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
First, it's far less likely than you'd think from the movies. We get giant asteroids of 10 km or so in diameter every 100 million years. Last one was 66 million years ago.
Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event
...
(more)First, it's far less likely than you'd think from the movies. We get giant asteroids of 10 km or so in diameter every 100 million years. Last one was 66 million years ago.
Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event
So only one chance in a million of an event like that in any given century. And we've also found all the Near Earth Objects of diameter 10 km or larger, so that leaves just the 1% or so of asteroids that approach us from beyond Jupiter. We'd get at least a half year warning as our best asteroid detection telescopes can spot a 10 km asteroid well beyond Jupiter. And chance of an impact from them in this century perhaps 1 in 100 million.
Smaller ones are more common but are still so rare, that there are no examples in human history of anyone killed by a large meteorite.
Risk at present equal between 100 meter asteroids and the ones 1 km or larger (still yet to find 10% of the 1 km Near Earth Asteroids).
Significantly larger than 10 km, say 100 km, would be very devastating, but is so unlikely as to be impossible for all practical purposes. Not been any of those for the last three billion years as far as we can see from the cratering record on Moon, Mars, Venus (as far back as the record goes there), Mercury, and the moons of Mars.
TEN KILOMETER ASTEROID
If you wanted to survive a 10 km diameter asteroid hitting Earth - well you can look at the creatures that did survive - the mammals by going underground, birds by flying out to sea, turtles beneath the sea.
Obviously avoid the impact point, which everyone would know, go to somewhere far away, perhaps far side of the Earth.
There might be a global firestorm, so you need a fireproof shelter, and maybe a supply of oxygen just for the impact. But probably safer to go around to the other side of the Earth. Ideally to somewhere like Siberia or Antarctica with no trees to burn.
There would be an increased risk of meteorites - debris from the impact or accompanying meteorites - for the smaller ones just get underground.
Safest of all perhaps, to get into a submarine, then so long as you avoid the impact site, then not much likely to hurt you there. Tsunamis are a surface phenomenon.
Then you need food to survive the years of "nuclear winter" that follow from all the dust clouds in the atmosphere.
We'd have more than half a year to prepare, stock pile provisions etc. But much more likely to have several decades as it is unlikely an asteroid this big from beyond Jupiter would hit Earth first time we discover it, as Earth is a tiny target, more likely scenario a news report that it will hit us a couple of decades later.
It is so unlikely someone does find an asteroid this big headed our way some time this century, I think this scenario is of most interest for movie makers and science fiction authors.
ONE KILOMETER OR SMALLER
For the smaller asteroids, then evacuate the impact zone, not much more needed - the one kilometer ones have some global impacts, e.g. on weather etc, but not going to be devastating world wide.
DEFLECTING ASTEROIDS
However, given plenty of time it isn't as hard to deflect an asteroid as you'd think. Because you only need a fraction of a meter per second delta v, and over months, years, especially decades, it is easy to deflect it by more than the diameter of the Earth. And if it does flybys of Earth first, then that helps a lot as with each flyby there is a small "keyhole" of order of hundreds of meters, and if you can get it to miss that point, it will then not hit Earth the next time around.
You can also destroy asteroids, especially the smaller ones.
The priority right now though, given the limited funding for asteroid detection and deflection, is to detect them. Because the sooner we can detect them, the easier it is to deflect any that are hazardous.
And anyway, the method we need to use to deflect it would depend on the asteroid. In some cases, the easiest method would be to dust it in some white substance to make it lighter in colour - this would deflect it by a fraction of a meter per second by the Yarkovsky effect But we can't know if that's the best approach, or a kinetic impact, or "asteroid billiards" hitting one asteroid to hit another, or any of the many other ways proposed to deflect asteroids until we have an actual example asteroid we need to deflect.
The most probable news story here is not "ten kilometer asteroid due to hit Earth in six months" - that's not impossible but extremely unlikely.
A far more likely story is, say, a 50 meter diameter asteroid due to hit Earth a couple of decades from now. And if it is due to hit it in a desert or hit an ocean we might decide it is not worth the trouble of deflecting it - just make sure nobody is there at the time of impact, evacuate the impact zone.
But a 50 meter asteroid due to hit a more populated area, or a 100 meter asteroid would mean we need to deflect it, and it surely wouldn't be difficult to get the funding if predicted in plenty of time.
Both ESA and NASA have plans for a very small scale test of use of a kinetic impact to slightly change the trajectory of an asteroid, which could be scaled up if needed for an asteroid deflection scenario.
Even a ten kilometer diameter asteroid could be deflected so it avoids the Earth given enough lead time.
This is the one natural disaster we can
DETECTION DOWN TO 20 METERS DIAMETER - SAME AS RUSSIAN METEORITE
The B612 foundation has plans for a space based asteroid detection mission orbiting closer to the sun than Earth which could find the more elusive smaller asteroids quickly. It could search down to 20 meters in diameter, and would complete its first search within 6.5 years, finding most of the smaller asteroids, including ones that orbit between Earth and Sun most of the time and are harder to spot. It would cost less than half a billion dollars, which is not much, especially if it was funded internationally, and I think myself it should be a priority to fund a telescope like this, world wide. We are building many land based telescopes for astronomy that cost billions of dollars each. And frequently spend hundreds of times this much on destroyers and nuclear weapons. Can we not find the funding, somehow, for the B612 foundation space telescope? Working together, world wide? It could launch by 2018 and so find most of the smaller NEOs by the mid 2020s if the funding was available.
Since it goes down to 20 meters, the size of the Russian meteorite, we'd start to get asteroid impact predictions regularly as those smaller asteroids are so small that many burn up harmlessly in the atmosphere, sometimes not even noticed by anyone except space telescopes, especially if they hit the Earth's atmosphere far from any inhabited area. Which then could be used as tests of the methods used to predict exactly where the asteroids will impact.
SURVIVING IMPACTS BY SMALL ASTEROIDS
For those smaller asteroids the advice might well just be to stay away from windows and be wary of flying glass. Or to evacuate the impact zone if anyone is living close to the impact point. So would be easy to survive those given advance warning.
As they are also by far the most common, then if asked to guess, I'd guess that the first asteroid impact to be predicted more than a few days in advance would be a 20 meters to perhaps 50 meters diameter asteroid.
So - the sort of newspaper headlines to expect are more like:
"30 meters asteroid due to hit Earth on ..."
giving the impact point exactly - and with advice to avoid the impact zone, also probably extra flights for astronomers and other enthusiasts to go there to observe the spectacular fireball in flight from a safe distance, and locals offering accommodation for all the extra astronomy tourists, as happens with solar eclipses.
For more about this see my
Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
Well the chance that they come out right now is tiny. Because those are habitats that have been around for billions of years. The chance they reached technology at the same time as us is surely min...
(more)Well the chance that they come out right now is tiny. Because those are habitats that have been around for billions of years. The chance they reached technology at the same time as us is surely miniscule. They could as easily come out a billion years ago or a billion years from now. So chance of them emerging in this century is surely less than a million to one.
So since they aren't here yet, chances are either they are very slow at evolving and will come out a few billion years into the future, or there is something that keeps them tied to their habitat whatever it is.
I think chance of life in lava is tiny but maybe not impossible. There are some chemicals that are stable at those temperatures, involving silicon chains, but there are no signs of lifeforms in our lava flows, that we can see. If there is any possibility of silicon life in lava flows, then the surface of Venus could be an ideal place to look for it also.
One place where there could be advanced life in our solar system, and not discovered yet, is Europa's ocean. It is thought to have enough oxygen in its oceans to support a small ecosystem, which could possibly even support quite large creatures like fish. If so, well, then it could have intelligent creatures also, if you can get as far as fish, why not fish with high levels of intelligence? If so they could be civilized, no reason why not, if they are intelligent. But probably don't have much by way of technology because it would be hard to work with fire in an ocean, and without fire, it would be hard to develop technology like ours.
If so then it might be the other way around that at some point in the future our rovers suddenly appear in their ocean. Would be a huge surprise to them, in an ice covered world, no way to see outside of it (unless it has geysers, but they also would probably be impossible for them to peer out of without technology) as they would probably be completely unaware that the rest of the universe exists at all.
Probably not. Unless they were related to Earth life, then probably not made of Earth type DNA. Even DNA could use different bases. Also the proteins can be different for the same DNA if the way pr...
(more)Probably not. Unless they were related to Earth life, then probably not made of Earth type DNA. Even DNA could use different bases. Also the proteins can be different for the same DNA if the way proteins are encoded is different.
And even also here on Earth then many lifeforms are poisonous as food for other lifeforms. Sometimes through evolution to avoid being eaten. Sometimes, it seems just accidentally. Inorganic chemicals on other planets could also be poisonous to us though tasty to ETs that live there.
The Star Trek and general science fiction movie convention where you can usually eat the food, breath the air of another planet is probably very unlikely.
Of course we can't say for sure until we actually discover ETs. We only know of one type of biology that can evolve in our universe. Whether even this biology can evolve anywhere else is unknown. So it is far too soon to know for sure if there are other alternative biologies either. Some have suggested that this is the only form of biology that can ever evolve in our universe, that in various ways it is optimal.
But the problem with that argument is that life is so complex, there is no way it could explore the entire solution space of all possible forms of life in order to reach an optimal lifeform, metabolism, method of reproduction etc. Can only be a "local optimum", an approximate maximum found by a partial exploration of the mathematical solution space of possible life biochemistries, metabolisms, methods of reproduction etc.
So there is also a chance of many other forms of equally "optimal" lifeforms, which to them would seem "best possible" just as our biochemisty seems to us - but might not be identical to ours.
And if it's true that life can evolve in many different ways, seems no reason why life evolved independently should be safe to eat. And even if there is a common origin or it evolves in identical fashion, the life could be as poisonous to us as chocolate is to dogs and parrots, or nutmeg and avocado is to parrots, or "deadly nightshade" or wisteria seeds is to humans. Or the way that BMAA produced by green algae may cause Alzheimers in humans because of its similarity to an amino acid L-Srine - though surely not adapted to do this, just an accident.
And - if the life is different from Earth DNA it's also possible that our defense systems which have evolved over billions of years to recognize and protect us from DNA based life might simply not recognize it as a hazard. So we could also be in danger from non DNA based microbes. Or the microbes could eat, or destroy other lifeforms we depend on, or indeed out compete them. E.g. suppose it is a lifeform that is better at photosynthesis and metabolism than our green algae, and occupies a similar niche, only slightly better, maybe totally different method of photosynthesis, as different as the method used by the purple bacteria or the sulfur bacteria are from the chlorophyl based photosynthesis - it just needs to be very slightly better than our equivalent lifeforms to out-compete them. And then if it produces chemicals that DNA based life can't use, doesn't recognize, or finds poisonous, that could be an issue too. Microbes like that introduced to human habitats or ecosystems could be devastating, and might be no way to stop it.
We could eat simple chemicals like some sugars and salts, for instance, alcohol also - but would need to take care with those also until tested as many may also be poisonous, e.g. perchlorates in the salt,
For many more details, see also my answer to:
What are the odds that alien food from an Earth-type planet would kill us?
which I made into a Science20 blog post as What Food Can You Share With An ET?
This is also why I think we need to take great care about returning any sample from any other celestial body to Earth. Including Mars, Europa or Enceladus. We could be talking here abotu more efficient lifeforms, perhaps an order of magnitude smaller than the smallest known living cells based on DNA, and it's really hard to protect against unknown dangers. In biohazard laboratories, which is what we are most familiar with, you have a known hazard, to be contained, inside the laboratory. Can we contain an unknown hazard, one not even based on familiar biochemistry, when we haven't yet studied it?
I think we should study "in situ" first, for safety reasons, as well as for practical reasons.
And if returned to the Earth Moon system, then unless sure in advance what we are returning should either sterilize it - or else - return it to telerobotically controlled facilities, perhaps a few thousand kikometers above geostationary orbit - that humans go nowhere near, until we know for sure what we have there.
Because there are too many possibilities of containment breach once you return it to the Earth atmosphere. Including things like terrorism, accidents, carelessness, over eager experimenters ignoring protocols etc.
The first samples returned are likely to be only of geological interest anyway unless we have already found life on Mars by then, because Mars gets lots of organics from micrometeorites - the organics already found are believed to have come from micrometeorites. Though there may be both past and present life on Mars, then it's likely to be hard to distinguish it unless already able to detect life in situ on Mars.
Of course entirely possible that the life is harmless, that we can eat kilograms of the stuff no problem, even if totally unrelated to Earth life in origin - but you'd want to be very very sure about that, before doing something such as introducing it to an Earth habitat or trying to eat it. Even if the risk of it being harmful is tiny, it's a risk we can't take with billions of people.
See my Will NASA's Sample Return Answer Mars Life Questions? Need For Comparison With In Situ Search
About ten months. To be that big and not known yet ,has to be further away than Jupiter at present, and then you get the ten months from the time it would take to get to an Earth crossing position ...
(more)About ten months. To be that big and not known yet ,has to be further away than Jupiter at present, and then you get the ten months from the time it would take to get to an Earth crossing position from beyond Jupiter, and add a bit for the possibility that it is behind the sun at first detection.
We have already found all the asteroids of ten kilometers or larger in short period Earth crossing orbits. We'd have spotted Jupiter family comets of that size by now also with aphelion same distance as Jupiter.
That just leaves the longer period comets with aphelion well beyond Jupiter. Those are the only ones left of this size that could hit us this century, and it's hard to say how many there are. One estimate is, 1% of the impactors of this size. But they are somewhat more devastating as they hit with much higher velocity. Going with that figure for now, it's perhaps a 1 in 100 million chance that we are hit by an asteroid this big in the current century. The hprobability anyway is low enough that they are not our priority at present. Main threat almost equally between one kilometer diameter asteroids and ones of order 100 meters diameter. The one kilometer ones are large enough to have global effects, the 100 meter ones are much more common but imipact on fewer people.
We should finish mapping out 99% of the one kilometer ones by the 2020s by which time the 100 meter ones would be the main ones to detect. It's a matter of priority - given limited funding we need to map the most risky ones first.
Bear in mind, never in human history do we have a confirmed example of anyone killed by an asteroid, though it may have happened with very small asteroids. Never mind hundreds, or thousands of people., These are very rare events. The ten kilometer or larger events were a 1 in a million chance for any century, but having searched and not found any in the NEO population headed our way this century, is now perhaps a 1 in 100 million chance.
See aso my http://www.science20.com/robert_... though I need to update teh 1 in 10 million there to 1 in 100 million
Yes, just to add to Katie Berger Tremaine's answer to How much can the Falcon9 lower the launch cost? it's also assuming that the reconditioned booster is reliable as the original - if the re-used ...
(more)Yes, just to add to Katie Berger Tremaine's answer to How much can the Falcon9 lower the launch cost? it's also assuming that the reconditioned booster is reliable as the original - if the re-used booster has a significantly higher failure rate it could wipe out any savings, also make companies reluctant to fly on those missions, so they need to be very sure it is as good as the original. Early stages yet in new technology. Planes are re-used many times of course, no problem. One of the problems though with rocket launches is that each test is so very espenxive. Imagine if a plane could only be tested actually in action in commercial cargo flights because each flight is so expensive it has to pay for itself? And on that basis has to be pushed into service after a handful of test flights?
That's the challenge for spacecraft today. Even the most reliable rockets have had only of order a few hundred flights ever.
In future though they'll be able to abort with the cargo safe, so if you have a few flights fail but the cargo is intact and can fly again that will help.
Nobody knows. Human body too complex to simulate. No experiments with low gravity in space. Women in child with fetuses are not permitted on the ISS because we don't know enough about effect of zero g.
...
(more)Nobody knows. Human body too complex to simulate. No experiments with low gravity in space. Women in child with fetuses are not permitted on the ISS because we don't know enough about effect of zero g.
Lots of things change in the body in zero g, and the body is a balance of many systems, it could be worse in low g, or it could be that low g is better than full g, you can't just draw a straight line between zero g effects and full g to guess the effects of low g.
Also applies to growing children, they may not grow to maturity normally. There's no particular reason why humans born on Mars would grow up able to live on Mars as after all our bodies never evolved in low g - so why would they naturally adapt to work in low g either? It would have to be through mechanisms evolved for other reasons than to make a body work okay in low g - if so - why should they work together nicely to create a healthy growing body in low g? Might do, might not.
Also if it turns out to be impossible, it might be that this can be solved by living in centrifuge spinning habitats. That depends on matters such as human spin tolerance in conditions we can't simulate exactly on Earth.
But this is just one of many issues with the idea of living on Mars which is an extremely inhospitable planet with no atmosphere to speak of, no oxygen, and you'd need pressure suits to stay alive on the surface as like the vacuum of space, the moisture lining your lungs would boil. If you could live there comfortably, it would be dead easy to live full time 24/7 on the summit of Mount Everest. Our technology isn't there yet. But there are other issues also for planetary protection - all our exploration of Mars so far has been based around search for life there, it would be a huge anticlimax to find life and realize it is life we brought there ourselves
Great interest to explore though. See also Robert Walker's answer to How soon can humans move to and live on Mars?
Mars is not a habitable planet for humans at present. It would be far far easier to live in Antarctica or on the summit of Mount Everest, or the heart of the Gobi desert. We don't have the technolo...
(more)Mars is not a habitable planet for humans at present. It would be far far easier to live in Antarctica or on the summit of Mount Everest, or the heart of the Gobi desert. We don't have the technology yet to live in such places in a self sustaining way also making all our own machinery and needing to import nothing at all form the rest of the Earth. Too cold even for Eskimos to live there. And then on Mars you have to make all your own oxygen, grow your plants only in greenhouses, you can't go outside except in clumsy pressurized suits that are like mini spaceships currently cost about $2 million to make.
Some enthusiasts think that with a thousand year project we could make Mars more or less habitable for trees, and eventually even have an oxygen rich atmosphere.
But if that's possible it's a major mega engineering project, obviously longer term than any major technological project we have ever attempted before by an order of magnitude or more, more expensive every year than anything we have ever attempted, including the ISS, again by an order of magnitude or more, and I'm skeptical that it is possible at all.
If we moved Earth's entire ecosystem, atmosphere, etc to Mars, it wouldn't work. It wouldn't be warm enough. Even a pure CO2 atmosphere is too cold for Mars, not warm enough for trees to grow there. And CO2 is poisonous to humans above 1% concentration. Perhaps it had stronger greenhouse gases like methane to keep it warm enough to explain the clear evidence of ancient oceans and river beds.
At any rate the analogy of discovering a new continent on the Earth I think leads to the idea that Mars is far more habitable than it is. Even on Earth, discovering a new continent doesn't automatically mean we colonize it. When we discovered Antarctica, it attracted explorers and scientists, but nobody had any thought of trying to colonize it, as far as I know. Mars is like that.
It would be fine to let the Mars enthusiasts just try colonizing it, when everyone else thinks they will fail, let them try to prove us wrong. Take huge risks like base jumping. But there are a couple of problems with that.
First, the problem of contaminating Mars with Earth life. Though conditions there are so extreme now nevertheless, they aren't so extreme as to make life impossible. We even have quite a long list of Earth microbes that might be able to live on Mars. So we sterilize our robotic spacecraft for Mars to levels that would be impossible to achieve with a human mission. And in the worst case a human mission would have a percentage risk of a hard landing, I think everyone agrees. Could be 50%, could be 1%, there's bound to be some risk of a hard landing in a first ever human landing on Mars. Many of the robotic landings have failed and with Curiosity, they genuinely didn't know it would succeed. Even with Curiosity's successor - a successful landing doesn't guarantee that next time it will work for sure using the same system. It's a good chance it will succeed, but a proven system can still fail from time to time as we found with the Space Shuttle.
So, you could try to land a biohazard laboratory on Mars, inside out, with all the microbes associated with humans as the biohazard to keep away from Mars -some seem to think that much could be possible mainly because of the very harsh conditions over much of Mars so long as you keep humans away from areas where life on Mars is possible. It's a major challenge - especially because of the Martian dust storms and the atmosphere -so not like the Moon where contamination at one site would not risk contaminating the whole of the Moon - on Mars a microbe imbedded in a dust grain could be spread to anywhere on the planet in the dust storms, protected from UV light by the iron oxides in the grains of dust. But some seem to think that's possible.
But what if you have a hard landing? How could that, the human bodies and habitat contents strewn across Mars, and potentially anywhere on the planet, e.g. happened due to the insertion burn going wrong - how could that keep Mars protected from Earth Microbes?
If we land on Mars and find life there, only to discover life we brought there ourselves, it would be the worst possible anticlimax of all our searches for life there.
The far most interesting situation is one where Mars has its own native life of some form. And then we'd want to keep Earth life well away from it. At least to start with until we understand what is there and how it interacts with Earth life, both ways. And Mars is so large, so varied in landscape, it will probably take decades or longer to get a first idea of what is there.
Then the other problem is that this idea of Mars as a backup could, maybe already, is distracting away from the need to protect Earth. If people have in mind the idea that we could back up Earth to Mars maybe they might take risks, one in a billion type risks, with Earth, that they wouldn't otherwise.
But Mars is a great place to explore. If we treat it more like Antarctica, as an inhospitable but very interesting place, I think that is more realistic in the near future. As for more distant future, well if we do do space colonization, I think the Moon is the obvious starting point or habitats made using materials from the Moon or the asteroid built in free space perhaps in orbit around Earth. But I think they will depend on Earth to a large extent for the foreseeable near future, because it is so much easier to live on Earth. You can't beat an atmosphere you can breath, ground you can grow crops in without greenhouses that have to contain tons per square meter outwards pressure (in free space or on Mars), ability to work out of doors without a pressure suit, natural protection from cosmic radiation etc.
I think if some day we can build domed cities or Stanford Torus type habitats in space - and if those large habitats can be made either self maintaining or very easy to maintain -then internally they could be as easy to live in as on the Earth. But that is likely to be some way into the future. Right now they would be possible perhaps, though you need to find out for sure by building larger and larger closed system habitats and even the ISS is nowhere near closed system - but so expensive to build in the first place, and probably quite expensive to maintain - so I think likely to need support from Earth continuously - need to have some strong economic incentive for building them in space. If so, then surely compared to the population of Earth, only a small but maybe eventually significant number in space.
And I think that is just as well, because if some day we have millions, or even billions of people in space - that includes hundreds, thousands, maybe even millions who may be political extremists of one kind or another, or even just individuals with strange anti-social agendas, and give them space technology, spacecraft traveling at kilometers per second, and it could be quite dangerous. So I think that's a future not to rush into as fast as possible. Taking scientific exploration as a starting point seems a good idea to me. And for commercial exploitation, including space mining - it might well be of great future benefit to the Earth, but still, it could be destabilizing also. So I think it needs to be regulated like all the other forms of exploitation we have on Earth.
But in the case of Mars it is hard to see how it could be supported by any commercial exports from Mars to Earth in the near term future because it is deep within a gravity well, it could never compete in prices with, say, Near Earth Asteroid mining. It would be all one way, pouring billions of dollars into Mars, with no return except this idea of Mars as a "backup" and it seems at least possible it would actually be harmful to scientific exploration of Mars, and doesn't seem likely that it would lead to a self sustaining society in the near future to me.
With scientific exploration as your reason for being there, you could explore it from orbit, using virtual reality technology. From orbit, Deimos or Phobos. With care those might be places you can visit without risk of contaminating too much. Though even on a vacuum covered cratered landscape humans might be quite polluting. I think it is best to start on the Moon and see how easy it is to explore that with humans, and whether it's possible to do so in a way that doesn't mean the humans get in the way of he science, and see the effect of a long term base on the Moon first. And from that we can get an idea of how easy it is to explore with humans there directly.
A spacecraft in orbit around Mars seems the safest first step. Controlling robots on the surface via telepresence. Get it to Mars using a technology that doesn't risk impact into Mars of a human occupied spacecraft -there's a method called "Ballistic transfer" where you can get down to Mars orbit using only an ion thruster without need for a one off rapid burn which is risky for planetary protection in a human occupied ship.
I think that's the safest first human mission to Mars. It's a challenge, even that, but far safer than a surface mission. The saving of mass over a surface mission can be used to help protect from cosmic radiation and to provide backup spacecraft to make it all told far safer for humans than a surface mission. And avoids the "seven minutes of terror" landing. We could then take it from there, maybe go to Phobos or Deimos depending on both robotic discoveries on those planets and our experience of landing humans on the Moon. They both have many advantages over bases on the surface of Mars.
Why We Can't "Backup Earth" On Mars, The Moon, Or Anywhere Else In Our Solar System
Ten Reasons NOT To Live On Mars - Great Place To Explore
Trouble With Terraforming Mars
Why Nukes Can't Terraform Mars - Pack Less Punch Than A Comet Collision
Also my book: OK to Touch Mars? Europa? Enceladus? Or a Tale of Missteps?
It's just an internet hoax. Their sources are a lady who thinks that she is contacted by extra terrestrials via genetic material implanted in her brain, a maverick Sumerian "scholar" who sees accou...
(more)It's just an internet hoax. Their sources are a lady who thinks that she is contacted by extra terrestrials via genetic material implanted in her brain, a maverick Sumerian "scholar" who sees accounts of spaceships and extra terrestrials and twelve planets in tablets that everybody else says describe polytheism (like the Greeks, multiple deities) and the usual five planets known to the ancients - and a recent group of "researchers" called "Brussel Sprouts".
They have no idea how real astronomy works. Their "Nibiru" is based on the astronomical idea of Nemesis, which was postulated to have a 26 million year orbit to account for a 26 million year cycle of mass extinctions, so they supposed, and orbiting a third of a light year from the sun. They turned that into a 3600 year orbit planet, which makes nonsense of the idea as the orbit would then be unstable - or make our solar system unstable - and who ever thought we have mass extinctions every 3600 years?
Loads of other really silly ideas that they claim are "astronomy". It's about as credible as the idea that we are about to be eaten by a hungry pumpkin.
This video is a parody of the videos they create:
For more about it all, see my "Imaginary Bullshit Planet" Nibiru - Lens Flares, Sun Mirages, Hoaxes & Just Plain Silly
Or
Get this as a kindle ebook (127 pages)
See also my online petition at Change .org: Let's End Dramatized Reporting of "Doomsday" Stories - The Vulnerable Get Suicidal
They often talk about the "two wings" of compassion and wisdom (or insight). So both matter in the Buddhist teachings. Trying to fly with only one of them is like a bird trying to fly with only one wing.
...
(more)They often talk about the "two wings" of compassion and wisdom (or insight). So both matter in the Buddhist teachings. Trying to fly with only one of them is like a bird trying to fly with only one wing.
So, I think it's a little unclear what we mean by "motivation" but I think one part of the idea of working on motivation, at least is the idea of trying to develop compassion as the basis of your actions. If that is how you understand it, then that's like trying to fly with just one wing, if you don't let wisdom develop as well.
But both lead to the other as in Buddhist teaching, true wisdom is a wisdom that sees through the illusion of a separate self that's cut off from everyone else in its own little island of concerns, and also sees everything as changing and impermanent. So as you have a clearer understanding of yourself and how you are connected with everyone else, and also see that it's not possible to set up a little "home" in the world all to yourself that will last for all future time - you become more open to others. And that then leads naturally to compassion.
And compassion in the other direction by helping you to open out to others and the world around you helps you to intuitively connect to the way everything changes and to see how everything is interconnected. Which is what Buddhists see as the essential central point of wisdom. By wisdom they don't mean book learning, though for some on particular paths, then scholarly learning may help them. But the true wisdom is something you see directly.
And - you will still make mistakes. Buddha himself made what most would call mistakes in the ordinary sense. But when motivated by compassion, together with wisdom, when even your mistakes are done with this compassion and with understanding of impermanence and non self, they become part of the path.
One example from the Buddha's teaching is the time he met someone who wanted to become a monk and follow the Buddha's path as a monk. He said, fine, you need to go and get hold of a set of robes first, so I can ordain you as a Buddhist monk. So off he went to get his robes, but he never came back. Later Buddha heard that he had been gored by a cow - a very unusual thing to happen in India (that’s Pukkusāti in the Dhātuvibhanga Sutta).
So - you could say that's a mistake, - if Buddha had kept him just a few minutes longer before sending him off to get a set of robes, he wouldn't have been killed by the cow .
But then - if the cow had followed a different path also, then he wouldn't have been killed by it. You can keep going into ifs and ands and buts like that, but in short what happens just can't be predicted, it depends on what everyone else does, not just yourself.+ And there is no way you can see all the consequence of anything you do. Even a Buddha can't.
And sometimes you feel you want to roll back the clock, if only you had a time machine to go back, even half an hour, and undo something you said, or do something different. Like - you might imagine Buddha thinking "if only I had kept that monk for a few minutes longer, he wouldn't have been killed by the bull".
But you can't know what the consequences would have been if you'd did that as it didn't happen that way. For all you know it could have been much worse. And if you think as most Buddhists do that there is some continuation after this life, who knows what the effects were in that continuation? It could be a very positive thing to meet the Buddha and to decide to become a monk and follow the path of insight and compassion just before you die.
At any rate we can't do things like that. We just have to continue forward with whatever situation we are in, and act through compassion and wisdom. And whatever the consequences are of your wisdom and compassion, to go through with that also.
That's what they mean by skillful action, and this is also the Buddhist idea of "omniscience" when it is brought to its completion and you are completely motivated by wisdom and compassion in everything you do. Then everything you do is appropriate to the situation you are in. Nobody else could do anything better. Someone else might do something different from you, also motivated by compassion and insight, but you can't say what the consequences of that would be long term either or say that either of your choices is better or worse than the other.
It can be hard to relate to this if you feel one of your choices lead to someone being hurt in an accident or killed, for instance, you turned left, and an out of control car came careering across the road and killed your friend, say. But even then, there was no intention there, it was just an accident. What you need to do is to relate to what happens next. With your compassion and insight, you can help their friends and relatives, and yourself and continue into the future.
If anyone else asks me about "Nibiru" the imaginary bullshit planet I will slap them around their irrational heads with Newton's Principia" - tweet by Brian Cox
That's the thing. There is no asimuth or elevation because it is just pure imagination.
The "observations" show it anywhere in the sky. Sometimes they show it the same visual size as the sun and Moo...
(more)That's the thing. There is no asimuth or elevation because it is just pure imagination.
The "observations" show it anywhere in the sky. Sometimes they show it the same visual size as the sun and Moon. Sometimes they show it the size of a normal planet. Sometimes it is next to the sun, almost touching it visually. It can be in any position relative to the sun. Sometimes they claim to see Nibiru in the East when the sun is setting in the West. Sometimes they say it's an entire solar system with a star and several planets. Sometimes it is visible, and other times it is not and they claim it is "hiding behind a dust cloud". Even when someone else at the same time spots it from another part of the Earth. There is absolutely no consistency to it.
The reason surely is that these are all photographs of lens flares, offset lens reflections, bright lights on clouds, etc etc. Any bright light seen in the sky and any bright spot in an image is claimed as Nibiru as are various hoaxes.
For more see "Imaginary Bullshit Planet" Nibiru - Lens Flares, Sun Mirages, Hoaxes & Just Plain Silly
See also my online petition at Change .org: Let's End Dramatized Reporting of "Doomsday" Stories - The Vulnerable Get Suicidal
Tolkien did own an anthology of stories that included a story by Lovecraft. Seems likely he read it. Whether it influenced his writing is another matter though :).
(more)Tolkien did own an anthology of stories that included a story by Lovecraft. Seems likely he read it. Whether it influenced his writing is another matter though :).
Fantastic (magazine) November 1976 [Discussion Forums - Fanzines and other Periodicals]
Discussion of whether he was influenced here, which I found with google search (I'm not the person asking the question). Tolkien Topics: Reading Room: Tolkien & Lovecraft
More background here:
In July 1964, de Camp sent J.R.R. Tolkien a copy of his anthology Swords & Sorcery.[1] Tolkien sent a letter to de Camp in August 1964, expressing his opinion about the stories.[2] In February 1967, de Camp and Alan E. Nourse visited Tolkien for an interview:[3][4]
"[Tolkien] said he found [the anthology] interesting but did not much like the stories in it [...] We sat in the garage for a couple of hours, smoking pipes, drinking beer, and talking about a variety of things. Practically anything in English literature, from Beowulf down, Tolkien had read and could talk intelligently about. He indicated that he 'rather liked' Howard's Conan stories."― Literary Swordsmen and Sorcerers, pp. 243-4
from: L. Sprague de Camp
So - at least in 1964 he almost certainly read one of his stories, "The Doom that came to Sarnath" though he probably didn't much like it, at least, didn't much like the anthology it was in, though he didn't particularly mention it, so who knows for sure?
That's after he wrote the Hobbit and the Lord of the Rings. Of course that doesn't say anything either way about whether he read any of his stories before then.
It's a bit of a slender link, but best I can find :).
Scientists try to answer this by relying on science. But the scientific method works entirely by using an empirical approach, experiments with physical things. So how can science give us an answer ...
(more)Scientists try to answer this by relying on science. But the scientific method works entirely by using an empirical approach, experiments with physical things. So how can science give us an answer about what happens when you die? It depends on how you think about life and death. If you use the analogy of a dream, then this way of reasoning can be quite compelling.
ANALOGY OF A DREAM
So, there is the idea, that it is just a dream and you might wake up at any time. This is a philosophical view that is impossible to disprove really. It's more compelling if you are someone who has vivid and lucid dreams. A lucid dream is one where you know that you are dreaming and so can look at the dream carefully, knowing that it is a dream.
Richard Feynman, famous Nobel laureate physicist, was able to do this when young - later he decided to stop lucid dreaming. But while he could do it, he investigated his dreams like a scientist.
"...The next time I had a dream, there was a girl lying in tall grass, and she had red hair. I tried to see if I could see each hair. You know how there's a little area of color just where the sun is reflecting--the diffraction effect, I could see that! I could see each hair as sharp as you want: perfect vision!
"Another time I had a dream in which a thumbtack was stuck in a doorframe. I see the tack, run my fingers down the doorframe, and I feel the tack. So the "seeing department" and the "feeling department" of the brain seem to be connected. Then I say to myself, Could it be that they don't have to be connected? I look at the doorframe again, and there's no thumbtack. I run my finger down the doorframe, and I feel the tack!"
(long quote from Feynman on Reddit.com)
And you can experience pain during dreams also. Including pains that you don't have while awake. It's a rare experience, but does happen. Some dreamers can wake from a dream with high levels of pain, and the pain vanishes because it was just a dream pain.
And many people have the experiencing of waking from a dream, only to find that they are still dreaming. Sometimes the experience is so vivid that even when they finally wake properly, after several false awakenings, they may be unsure whether they have woken up properly yet, or are still in a dream. See this web survey of false awakening.
With that background, what if this is a dream? There isn't really too much more to say here, philosophers have argued it for centuries, and nobody has a knock down way to prove that you are not dreaming. You could dream all the science and experiments. They seem coherent - but are they? All you really have is the present moment in a dream - and the rest is your memories which are dream memories if it really is a dream. I don't think there is any way to prove that it isn't. You can do experiments in the realm of mind, where you direct your mind in particular ways and see what happens, as Richard Feynman did. But these are not recognized by science at present. Except in research on dreams, and those only in a limited way.
Scientists often assume that the only way to understand the mind properly is to look at the brain. So, there's a kind of underlying assumption that everything we think and feel can be explained in terms of brain processes. It's important I think to realize, that is just a hypothesis. It is not proven.
ANALOGY OF A COMPUTER
They also often go further and say that the brain is just a computer running a computer program. That again is just a hypothesis. I go into this a fair bit in some of my articles on artificial intelligence: Why Strong Artificial Intelligences Need Protection From Us - Not Us From Them
I don’t think there is any evidence at all yet, that the mind is a computer program, for the reason given there. Some things are analogous, for sure, the computer is a good metaphor for some aspects of how our minds work and computers can do things that we thought of as only the province of humans in the past. E.g. playing chess or go - but they don’t do it in the way humans do. We have a natural tendency to anthropomorphise anything that resembles us, even dolls and action figures. Back in the sixteenth century people were very impressed by clockwork automata, such as Jacques de Vaucanson's seventeenth century flute player. Or this lady playing an organ by Jaquet-Droz from the eighteenth century - the organ isn’t powered like a music box, she actually plays it with her fingers.
Or automata that could imitate human handwriting with a real quill pen:
You could actually program it, in the sense that you gave it a list of letters to write so could change what it wrote to anything you like.
CIMA mg 8332 Automaton in the Swiss Museum CIMA.
Philosophers from that time period used clockwork as analogies for the whole universe, and for actions of humans also. In the Mechanical philosophy of Descartes etc. Descartes wrote, about our perception of light, sounds etc, their imprints on the imagination, their retention in memory, our appetites and passions, and the external movements of our body as a result:
“I wish you to consider all of these as following altogether naturally in this Machine from the disposition of its organs alone, neither more nor less than do the movements of a clock or othe rautomaton from that of its counterweight and wheels…”
This analogy is still in our thinking to some extent, in metaphors such as “you are wound up” using the metaphor of a wound up spring in a clockwork machine. Or “I can see the cogs turning” as a metaphor for slow thought processes. Nowadays we know that the brain doesn’t run like clockwork but there are some close analogies. We also no longer think of it as like a hydraulic machine, another early metaphor. And to some extent yes it is mechanical, many parts of our body, e.g. our skeleton, and our heart pumping the blood, function in mechanical ways. The hydraulic metaphor is valid also, much of the way our body works is hydraulic. Now we have this computer metaphor. But I think so far it is no more than a metaphor and partial explanation still. Indeed - anything a computer can do can be done with clockwork, only more slowly and requiring a much larger machine. So in a way this computer metaphor we use today is just the old clockwork metaphor updated. There is nothing essentially “electronic” about a computer. And of course there is nothing resembling a transistor in the brain - so our brains certainly don’t work like a computer in detail.
Anyway even if there was a way to prove that the mind works like a computer, it still wouldn’t prove that when you die that’s it. If you use the analogy of a dream, that’s like a dream in which you prove to yourself conclusively that you are a program running on a dream computer - and then you wake up. It still won’t get you outside those limitations of science.
ASSUMING THE CONCLUSION
Obviously, if you start with the premiss that everything can be understood only through physical experiments - then the scientific approach can never prove existence of life after death. It is pre-biased to come up with the answer "No". They can only define life and awareness in terms that tie it down intimately to the body, because they don't recognize any other way of investigating this as valid.
About the only place in science where you have any acknowledgement that mind may have a role to play at all is in Quantum Mechanics, where they talk about observers, and the way observation influences what you can see in surprising ways. Observation is so intimately tied up with what you observe, that you can't actually say that an electron, say, has a particular location or velocity unless you observe it first.
What is observation there except activity of the mind? That might suggest perhaps that you can't completely eliminate the mind when you try to understand how the world works.
Still, even knowing that, if you are deeply ingrained in scientific thinking, you may think that there is no other way to think about awareness and consciousness. The whole thing may seem obvious to you, that when your brain dies, then that has to be the end of awareness and life and consciousness.
SCIENCE CAN’T PROVE THE VALIDITY OF THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD
But - science is itself not able to prove that science works. You can't prove scientifically that if you let go of a ball, it will fall to the ground. In a dream, you may be able to fly just by willing to fly. You may be able to throw a ball into the air and hit the Moon with it. Why can't we do things like that in real life? Science can't answer questions like that. Only philosophy can address that, or religion, or - has to be something outside of science itself, to try to understand why science works.
Some scientists are so out of touch with philosophy, that they can't understand how there can be any such subject, except as a science of how the mind works and the thoughts that people have. But their very science itself depends on a number of deeply held assumptions. To examine those, and understand why they work, and how they work,requires philosophy.
LIMITATIONS OF SCIENCE
Similarly science can't explain why there is anything at all. Even those who try to explain our universe using the idea that somehow it appeared as a quantum fluctuation out of nothing (Stephen Hawking’s idea) - that's just one theory, not proved, and many dispute it, with many other theories. But in any case, it just pushes the problem back. It doesn't explain why there is such a possibility as a quantum fluctuation, or what kind of a nothing could have a universe suddenly appear out of it. Fundamentally, it still can't explain why there is anything here right now.
Nor does science have any answers to why we suffer. It can help greatly with sickness, suffering, ill health, good food etc. Education. But in many cases you may be in pain and science can't do anything to help. Even when you enjoy life to the full, you know that there is no way that scientific research will let you continue like that for ever.
So, science has limitations. Some people think that there are simply no answers to any of those things. Some think there are answers of one kind or another. But there isn't any scientific experiment you can do, at present anyway, to decide if they have answers or not.
CONTINUATION AFTER YOU DIE
So back to the idea of an afterlife. I'm taking that in the very general sense - the idea that there is some continuation after you die. For me, I think that this continuation may be in the form of future lives as a human, animal, insect, or types of beings that we don't know exist yet. I believe, for various reasons, that I've had many previous lives and forgotten them all. I don't claim to have any proof of this at all; it just the idea that makes most sense to me :).
Others have other ideas. Ancestor worship, Hindu ideas of a soul, again with many rebirths, Theosophical ideas, Christian ideas of a heaven and hell, Ideas of pure lands etc. I don't think there is any way to decide between those possibilities, and many others. But I think that the belief that when this life ends "that's it" is as much of a faith or belief as any of those and as little supported as them.
If you are already convinced that we can't learn anything except through experiment, then this argument won't persuade you. You have closed your mind to any other possibility. But if you think there is a possibility of things you might be able to understand directly through the mind - that opens the possibility that all of this, this world, my body, external world, this computer I'm using etc etc - is in some ways a construct of mind.
It’s like a dream. With other beings in the dream also. Experiments do work, it seems. So there must be a lot of coherence to it, and maybe in some sense there is a reality to it. Far more coherent than any dream. But still - there is no way you can actually prove conclusively that you are not dreaming right now. So on that basis, all this experimental data about brains and so on - that's like dream experiments. In a dream you might prove many things, but when you wake up - all of that complicated dream is gone and you are on to your real life or your next dream.
IF AWARENESS ENDS AT DEATH, HOW CAN THIS BE HAPPENING NOW?
Then another thing that might shake your confidence that when we die, that's it - what happens after you die? That's the end of your awareness. So - at that point, there is no you left to have lived previously. So how can your life have actually happened at all? How can now be happening, if in the future, there will be nobody left to have had this experience?
This argument simply won't work at all if you are deeply ingrained with scientific ways of thinking. But for others, it might give pause for thought. I know some of you will read this and just say "nonsense, this chap is daft and he may be a nice enough chap in other ways but he has gone off his rocker here, he is not capable of critical thought".
But others, maybe you will find a few ideas here to get you thinking about it? There are many scientists who are Christian, Muslim, Jews, Buddhist, Hindu, Shinto, Taoist, etc. They don't find it at all incompatible with their beliefs, to be scientists. They know that they haven't empirically proved their beliefs scientifically. But they also consider science to be limited in the domain of what it can and can't prove. And give themselves permission to go beyond the realm of science, and to consider philosophy, and religious ideas.
So, I’m saying, you don’t have to believe in miracles to be a scientist like that. Just to recognize limitations of the scientific method. Just to be open to that possibility, that there might be something else after you die - I think that is by far the most scientific approach also. Because it's unscientific to assume anything without proof. To say that “when you die, that's it”, is as strong a statement as to say that when you die you will definitely take rebirth or end up in some particular afterlife or whatever ones belief may be.
There are a few scientists who are out certain that when you die that's it, like Richard Dworkin. Many more are just not sure what happens and open to various possibilities.
For religious people, I think it helps to acknowledge that you can't prove anything in this topic area. That can actually help your faith be stronger - because by looking carefully at this, acknowledging that you don't know, then you can see more clearly what it is you do believe, and why you do. But at the same time recognizing that others of other faiths believe other things about what happens when you die. And that there is no way to decide between any of those on scientific grounds.
In this way I think we can have greater tolerance of different religions for each other and for those who think that this life is all that there is. The idea that this life is all there is, amongst some scientists, has become as strong and irrational a faith as a religion. They simply can't see any possibility that there might be other ways of looking at things. Basically these scientists have a belief system in which the scientific method can settle all questions. That is as much a matter of faith as any religion that has been preached by some great teacher in the past.
It can't be proved, and the arguments they produce in support of it are no more valid than the many proofs of existence of God, or the arguments about numbers of angels dancing on a pin. They seem valid only because you have subscribed to this view that science will explain everything, so deeply, you can't even see that you have subscribed to it. That's as dogmatic a point of view as the most extreme kind of religious fanaticism, seems to me, as someone who has a strong background in science, maths and philosophy.
IS THERE SUCH A SUBJECT AS PHILOSOPHY?
Some scientists think there is simply no way to investigate things except by the scientific method. That rules out the entire realm of philosophy. There is no way to study philosophy using the methods of science. You can't do experiments to decide questions in philosophy, by the very nature of the subject.
If you think you can settle questions in philosophy with scientific experiments, that suggests you have never had any philosophical questions or thoughts - quite rare but true of some scientists indeed. Or maybe you used to think about philosophy as a child - I mean the ordinary natural philosophy everyone does or most people do rather than the academic subject - and have since forgotten that you did it.
So with this background, how could science ever say anything definitive about what happens when you die? Maybe it can but if so I think in some future where science is extended to include some aspect of understanding mind, sort of meld of science, philosophy and maybe some kind of mind experiments? At any rate we don't have that yet. As a scientist, therefore, I think there is no need at all to ascribe to miracles to have a wide variety of views about what happens when you die. And the view that "When you die that's it" is as much a belief system as any religion, I think.
See also my youtube video:
Mainly it's the presence of water in the past, and some indication it is still there today, and may be habitable. Then indirect reasoning - that life either got to Earth or evolved here very quickl...
(more)Mainly it's the presence of water in the past, and some indication it is still there today, and may be habitable. Then indirect reasoning - that life either got to Earth or evolved here very quickly within a few hundred million years. If it can start here so quickly, perhaps it had time to get started on Mars before it lost its atmosphere and its ocean.
There’s the evidence of Allan Hills 84001 too, which though most would say doesn’t prove that the meteorite contains life, still remains compatible with life, and the meteorite shows that Mars at the time had liquid water and the temperature was suitable for life too.
Then, it depends how far it evolved. If just got to an early stage, likely to be very hard to find. If it evolved as far as photosynthesis and resistant spores etc, it may still be there to this day indeed. Or it may be something in between.
Some think that Viking discovered life on Mars. Recently that got revived with the discovery of circadian rhythms in the data that were not exactly synchronized with the Martian sols, quite hard to explain except by invoking life.
Then there are the methane plumes as well. They can be produced without life, or could be ancient methane that was produced by life originally. But some think they might be produced by present day life.
If there is life there, even today, we would not expect to be able to see it from orbit, and it may leave no signature in the atmosphere not if it is slow growing in conditions more inhospitable than the dry valleys in Antarctica - which is quite likely.
See:
Just to add, account of some possible naked eye observations of Callisto and / or Ganymede. Rarely, seems you get reports of seeing them even without Jupiter obscured. Though have to watch out as s...
(more)Just to add, account of some possible naked eye observations of Callisto and / or Ganymede. Rarely, seems you get reports of seeing them even without Jupiter obscured. Though have to watch out as sometimes Jupiter passes close by to a star which can look like a moon to naked eye.
Denis Dutton on naked-eye observations of the moons of Jupiter
Bitesize Tour of the Solar System
And more here about seeing the moons with naked eye, suggests a small amount of moonlight is actually beneficial to help reduce the glare of Jupiter.
2007 The Nature of the Dawn's Heart Star Page 55
This diagram from the paper shows that a normal observer would not be able to see them under any conditions but a keen eyed observer in ideal conditions could potentially see all four. A small amount of moonlight or twilight might help by diminishing the glare of Jupiter.
That's from a paper that says that the Bushmen may have seen them as an alternative explanation for one of their legends. Their dry desert conditions would have been ideal. The Nature of the Dawn's Heart Star Page 54
Amateur astronomers flash the space station
As you can see the detection rate of the smaller one kilometer or larger asteroid has slowed down. We are currently finding one per month. The searches are much more sensitive, and the reason for that is that we have found nearly all of them already. We expect to find 99% of them by the 2020s.
That would leave the smaller population of Jupiter crossing asteroids still to find. We would have found those also if they are already closer to Earth than Jupiter, so that means that we have at least several years warning on the very low one in ten million probability that one of those is headed our way this century. Chances are that it would probably do several flybys of Earth before hitting as well. So the probability of finding one on a direct hit course to Earth with only a few years notice is even lower.
In the formula for the orbital period of a satellite,
See Orbital period as a function of central body's density
Here, notice there's an a cubed on the top - that is half the maximum distance between the planets in their orbit (semi-major axis). On the bottom, the masses M1 and M2 depend on the cube of their radii also.
So if you reduce the semi major axis a by a scale factor and reduce the radii of the planets by the same scale factor, in a scale model of the same density, the period remains the same.
Diagram of an autopoetic cell, from "Chemical Approaches to Synthetic Biology: From Vesicles Self-Reproduction to Semi-Synthetic Minimal Cells" There, L is the cell boundary, lipids in case of Earth life. P and Q are the basic ingredients of cell growth and W, Z the waste materials. E is the genetic and metabolic network, which converts the ingredients into the cell wall as well as the internal components of the cell creating waste products that leave the cell.
An autopoetic cell is not alive, but it has a metabolism, can also reproduce with daughter vesicles inside which escape, and has many of the properties of life. Some scientists think life may have started as autopoetic cells. If so, if life hasn't evolved on Mars, it may still have got as far as autopoetic cells. Or as far as various other precursors to life that have been suggested. These could be especially vulnerable to contamination by Earth life.
See also my "Super Positive" Outcomes For Search For Life In Hidden Extra Terrestrial Oceans Of Europa And Enceladus
"Living things tend to be complex and highly organized. They have the ability to take in energy from the environment and transform it for growth and reproduction. Organisms tend toward homeostasis: an equilibrium of parameters that define their internal environment. Living creatures respond, and their stimulation fosters a reaction-like motion, recoil, and in advanced forms, learning. Life is reproductive, as some kind of copying is needed for evolution to take hold through a population's mutation and natural selection. To grow and develop, living creatures need foremost to be consumers, since growth includes changing biomass, creating new individuals, and the shedding of waste."
Life's Working Definition: Does It Work?
Mars: White, Red, Purple, Green, Blue, Black, Or None Of The Above
From my Imagined Colours Of Future Mars - What Happens If We Treat A Planet As A Giant Petri Dish?
These images are meant as visual coat pegs to attach the discussion to. I don't claim that they show scientifically accurate simulations of the visual appearances of possible future Mars.
File:Being a twin means you always have a pillow or blanket handy.jpg
A newly terraformed planet - if it is possible for us at all - is like a baby. We still have responsibilites to our babies after their mother gives birth.
In my view anyway, we must not terraform a planet until we know how to give birth successfully (we are nowhere near to knowing enough for confidence there).
Then we have to be able to act as responsible parents. Which for planets involves a multi million year future.
I don't know if we will ever be ready for this, but I'd be surprised if it happens in the next century say, unless through external assistance such as contact with ETIs.
I don't think a responsible ETI would permit us as adoptive parents of a brand new terraformed planet. Probably the first question would be "Will your civilization continue for at least a million years into the future?"
This is not an experiment, it is just playful "mucking around" :). Ideas to just add a bunch of lifeforms to Mars are about as scientific as jumping into a swimming pool to see what happens.
A baby girl in Indiaand then we need to continue to support it to adulthood until we are able to leave it to fend for itself.
26 m (85 ft) × 10 m (33 ft) × 5 m (16 ft)
- far larger than Hubble which is 13.2 m × 4.2 m (43 ft × 14 ft)
"The Dragon spacecraft design is structurally identical for both the cargo and crew configurations, the chief differences being the thrusters, internal outfitting, and some other subsystems. For cargo launches, the inside of the capsule is outfitted with a modular cargo rack system designed to accommodate pressurized cargo in standard sizes. For crewed launches, the interior will be outfitted with crew couches, controls with manual override capability, and upgraded life support. Keeping the cargo and crewed versions of Dragon similar minimizes the design effort. "
NASA - Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX)
It's taken three decades of world wide cars and fossil fuel burning to raise the Earth's CO2 levels from 0.03% to 0.04%. It's not easy to make significant changes in the atmosphere of an entire planet.
Endurance - Shackleton's ship just before it sank on his ill fated expedition to Antarctica which however ended with everyone surviving due to heroic and brave leadership. Shackleton didn't attempt to colonize Antarctica, which is far more habitable than Mars.
There was no Antarctic treaty back then to stop him or anyone else. Any of the early polar adventurers could have attempted to set up a colony in Antarctica, just nobody saw any point and it would have been hugely expensive and impractical.
Asteroids No Match For Paint Gun, Says Prof | Texas A&M Today
(or How to Deflect Killer Asteroids With Spray Paint | WIRED)
Neptune in Primary Colors
"Although the fish is universally recognized as a symbol of the spiritual life, in this case a specific legend also applies. It is said that Tilopa was once cooking a fish when his disciple Naropa arrived on the scene. Naropa reproached his teacher for killing a sentient being, causing Tilopa to respond by restoring the fish to its original state. Tilopa then relaxed his grip on the fish, whereupon it rose heavenward and disappeared in a shower of rainbows. Tilopa's point was not only that things are not always what they seem, but also that the fish is a profound metaphor for sentient beings caught in the ocean of samsara. As an enlightened teacher, Tilopa has the ability to guide disciples out of the samsaric ocean to escape suffering and rebirth. Thus the symbolism of the fish in this statue will be especially meaningful to students of Tilopa's teachings."
Shakya Statues Trade, Tilopa
The last wolf in Scotland may have been killed in 1680. Was this the last wild wolf of Britain? (The demise of Scotland's wolves)
The orange and green projections both have us reach a maximum (see Projections of population growth ).
They are not so implausible as you might think as we have already reached peak child (Viewpoint: Five ways the world is doing better than you think - BBC News) .
See the Amazing Lemming
"In 1903 Cole famously made a presentation to a mee...(more)
"In 1903 Cole famously made a presentation to a meeting of the American Mathematical Society where he identified the factors of the Mersenne number 267 − 1, or M67. Édouard Lucas had demonstrated in 1876 that M67 must have factors (i.e., is not prime), but he was unable to determine what those factors were. During Cole's so-called "lecture", he approached the chalkboard and in complete silence proceeded to calculate the value of M67, with the result being 147,573,952,589,676,412,927. Cole then moved to the other side of the board and wrote 193,707,721 × 761,838,257,287, and worked through the tedious calculations by hand. Upon completing the multiplication and demonstrating that the result equaled M67, Cole returned to his seat, not having uttered a word during the hour-long presentation. His audience greeted the presentation with a standing ovation. Cole later admitted that finding the factors had taken "three years of Sundays"."
(Click to show this search online in Flickr) Can you see any photos of "Nibirus" here?
Note this is a logarithmic plot - distances close to the sun are exaggerated. The outer edge of the hypothesized Oort cloud is 100,000 aus. Distance to Alpha Centauri at 4.367 light years is 276,000 aus. So (if it exists and is as hypothesized) the outer edge of the Oort cloud is a little over a third of the way to Alpha Centauri.
Artist's impression of the Beta Pictoris Exocomet - and planet formation processes there - it may give a glimpse into processes that occurred during formation of our own solar system - and it may have an Oort cloud.
Comet Hyakutake C/1996 B2 which may possibly be an interstellar comet captured by Jupiter, as may be Machholz 1 . A Very Oddball Comet - Sky & Telescope
Middle of road and low projections have our population stabilizing or even decreasing.
Well, first there might be unknown elements yet to be discovered that you create artificially, and that might have existed in our universe in the past.
They would be in the "island of stability" in this diagram
They have even been given names. One of the more stable elements in the island could be Unbinilium, or perhaps flerovium 298. There other possibilities, as there are various combinations of numbers of neutrons and protons that may be especially stable.
These island of stability elements could have half lives of seconds, minutes, or (probably less likely) even longer, up to millions of years. Sometimes scientists speculate that they may have long enough half lives to occur naturally in tiny quantities. Superheavy Element 117 Points to Fabled “Island of Stability” on Periodic Table.
ANTI MATTER ELEMENTS
The main hypothesis is that all the elements we have have anti matter counterparts. So, if that is right, it would be the same periodic table in mirror form.
But it will be a while before we can check this. Unless we discover naturally occurring anti matter such as distant antimatter galaxies. None have been found yet, though there have been searches for anti matter galaxies. In Search of Antimatter Galaxies
If there were any nearby antimatter galaxies, well - it would be a spectacular event if one of them collided with a matter galaxy, and you'd expect to see dramatic events also when stars ejected from an antimatter galaxy enters into a matter galaxy. Discussion here on stackexchange How would we tell antimatter galaxies apart? (Science fiction story about an interloper anti matter star in our galaxy by Larry Niven Flatlander (short story) )
Also been searches for antimatter atoms such as hydrogen and helium in cosmic rays. Get plenty of positrons in electron positron pairs. But I don't think any anti atoms yet.
The other thing you can do is to make them here on Earth. They have created anti hydrogen atoms. And actually can slow it down and trap the atoms so potentially we can study it. Antihydrogen
They've also made anti helium nuclei. Not easy to trap it, and look at it carefully.
Physicists create heaviest form of antimatter ever seen
Antimatter and the Anti-Periodic Table
So we have two atoms of the table, hydrogen and helium. Will be much harder to create anti lithium though. We are a long way from creating a complete anti matter periodic table. If there are some differences between matter and antimatter perhaps it might not have all the same elements?
DARK MATTER ATOMS
Most ideas for dark matter involve matter that interacts weakly with itself and with ordinary matter. But some ideas suggest the possibility of "dark atoms". See New Kind of Dark Matter Could Form 'Dark Atoms'
NEUTRON STAR MATERIAL
You could consider a neutron star as a gigantic atomic nucleus consisting almost entirely of neutrons. So then - that brings up the idea of the element of atomic number 0 or "neutronium". Then any stable collection of neutrons bound together would be an isotope of this element of atomic number zero.
An isolated neutron then would be Mononeutron It undergoes beta decay with half life of about 10 minutes. So could be treated as a short lived atom of atomic number zero - which doesn't need any electrons because there are no protons in the nucleus.
The dineutron has been observed but is extremely short lived. They are not bound, but could perhaps be treated as a very short lived "atom" of atomic number 0.
The Tetraneutron - which would be a bound state of four neutrons - was observed experimentally, (reported in 2001 Detection of neutron clusters) but their experiment has not been replicated. If it existed it would need revision of our understanding of nuclear forces.
Robert Forward in his novel Dragon's Egg suggests the idea of a chemistry in the material on the surface of a neutron star - so not the actual neutronium itself - but highly compressed white dwarf star material, basically ordinary matter - but with the atomic nuclei interacting directly with each other, under the strong nuclear force. So compounds are different, bound together by the strong nuclear force, but the nuclei are the same as for our chemistry.
"However, some initial agreement is possible. Living things tend to be complex and highly organized. They have the ability to take in energy from the environment and transform it for growth and reproduction. Organisms tend toward homeostasis: an equilibrium of parameters that define their internal environment. Living creatures respond, and their stimulation fosters a reaction-like motion, recoil, and in advanced forms, learning. Life is reproductive, as some kind of copying is needed for evolution to take hold through a population's mutation and natural selection. To grow and develop, living creatures need foremost to be consumers, since growth includes changing biomass, creating new individuals, and the shedding of waste."
Life's Working Definition: Does It Work?
"Apollo 17 marked the end of the Apollo lunar missions. It seems clear that in the United States, that there will be a hiatus of a decade or more before further lunar exploration and lunar bases are organized. Apollo's primary orientation was never scientific. It was conceived at a time of political embarrassment for the United States. Several historians have suggested that a principal motivation of President Kennedy in organizing the Apollo program was to deflect public attention from the stinging defeat suffered at the Bay of Pigs invasion. Several tens of billions of dollars have been expended on the Apollo program. If the objective had been scientific exploration of the Moon, it could have been carried out much more effectively, for much less money, by unmanned vehicles. The early Apollo missions went to lunar sites of little scientific interest, because the safety of the astronauts was the prime, almost the only, concern. Only toward the very end of the Apollo series did scientific considerations play a significant role.
"The Apollo program ended just as the first scientist landed on the Moon. Harrison "Jack" Schmitt, a geologist, trained at Harvard, was one of the two-man crew of the Apollo 17 landing module. He was the first scientist to study the Moon from the surface of the Moon. It is ironic that just as the Apollo program became able to achieve this major advance in the scientific exploration of the Moon, it was canceled. Fittingly enough, the first scientist to land on the Moon was the last man to land on the Moon – at least in the foreseeable future. There are no plans for follow-on manned missions to the Moon either by the United States or, so far as we know, by the Soviet Union.
"The argument for cancellation of Apollo was economic. Yet the incremental cost of a given mission was in the many tens of millions of dollars, something like one thousandth the total cost of the Apollo program. It is very much as if, against the advice of my wife, I purchase a Rolls-Royce automobile. She argues that a Volkswagen could get me round just as well, but I feel that a Rolls-Royce would take my mind off the troubles of my job. I then spend so much money on the Rolls-Royce that, after driving it a little bit, I find I can drive it no more because I cannot afford the price of a tank of gas – which is about one thousandth the cost of a Rolls-Royce.
"I was one of the scientists opposed to an early Apollo mission. But once the Apollo technology was in hand, I was very much for its continuing usage. I believe the wrong decision was made twice – once in opting for early manned missions to the Moon, and later in abandoning such missions. After Apollo 17, the United States is left with no program, manned or unmanned, for exploration of the Moon. The Soviet Union has developed, in its Luna series of unmanned spacecraft, a proven and versatile capability for roving exploration of the lunar surface and automatic sample return to Earth.
"..."
“They will have 180 days to get down to deorbit altitude. This would give them time to get two Russian Progress vehicles launched to autonomously dock, autonomously transfer propellant to the Service Module, and to provide propulsion to deorbit. This would provide a good, safe, controlled deorbit.”
"We have seen earlier that a being is nothing but a combination of physical and mental forces or energies. What we call death is the total non-functioning of the physical body. Do all these forces and energies stop altogether with the nonfunctioning of the body? Buddhism says 'No'. Will, volition, desire, thirst to exist, to continue, to become more and more, is a tremendous force that moves whole world lives, whole existences, that even moves the whole world. According to Buddhism, this force does not stop with the non-functioning of the body, which is death; but it continues manifesting itself in another form, producing re-existence which is called rebirth.
"Now, another question arises: If there is no permanent, unchanging entity or substance like Self or Soul (atman), what is it that can re-exist or be reborn after death?
"Before we go on life after death, let us consider what this life is, and how it continues now. What we call life, as we have so often repeated, is the combination of the Five Aggregates, a combination of physical and mental energies. These are 24 constantly changing; they do not remain the same for two consecutive moments. Every moment they are born and they die. 'When the Aggregates arise, decay and die, O bhikkhu, every moment you are born, decay and die.'
"Thus even now during this life time, every moment we are born and die, but we continue. If we can understand that in this life we can continue without a permanent, unchanging substance like Self or Soul, why can't we understand that those forces themselves can continue without a Self or Soul behind them after the nonfunctioning of the body? When this physical body is no more capable of functioning, energies do not die with it, but continue to take some other shape or form, which we call another life. In a child all the physical, mental and intellectual faculties are tender and weak, but they have within them the potentialitiy of producing a full grown man. Physical and mental energies which constitute the so- called being have within themselves the power to take a new form, grow gradually and gather force to the full.
"As there is no permanent, unchanging substance, nothing passes from one moment to the next. So quite obviously, nothing permanent or unchanging can pass or transmigrate from one life to the next. It is a series that continues unbroken, but changes every moment. The series is, really speaking, nothing but movement. It is like a flame that burns through the night: it is not the same flame nor is it another. A child grows up to be a man of sixty. Certainly the man of sixty is not the same as the child of sixty years ago, nor is he another person.
"Similarly a man dies here and reborn elsewhere is neither the same person, nor another. It is the continuity of the same series. The difference between death and birth is only a thought-moment: the last thoughtmoment of this life conditions the first thought-moment in the so-called next life, which in fact, is the continuity of the same series. During the life itself, too, one thought-moment conditions the next thought-moment. So, from the Buddhist point of view, the question of life after death is not a great mistery, and a Buddhist is never worried about this problem. As long as there is this 'thirst' to be and to become, the cycle of continuity (samara) goes on. It can stop only when its driving force, this 'thirst', is cut off through wisdom which sees Reality, Truth, Nirvana.
He waited for an opportunity, when the talk was going again, and Tom was telling an absurd story about badgers and their queer ways - then he slipped the Ring on.
Merry turned towards him to say something and gave a start, and checked an exclamation. Frodo was delighted (in a way): it was his own ring all right, for Merry was staring blankly at his chair, and obviously could not see him. He got up and crept quietly away from the fireside towards the outer door.
'Hey there!' cried Tom, glancing towards him with a most seeing look in his shining eyes. 'Hey! Come Frodo, there! Where be you a-going? Old Tom Bombadil’s not as blind as that yet. Take off your golden ring! Your hand’s more fair without it.
Hard to see how that could be possible. Problems are
Hard to see how that could be possible. Problems are
The nearest to it is this idea of a vacuumorph which is a fictional genetically engineered human that has an extra lung as an oxygen store - it would be able to survive in the vacuum of space but like a human in a spacesuit has to keep coming back to oxygen stores to get more oxygen.
Basically it's the idea you could perhaps bio-engineer a spacesuit. Whether that's possible or not, it's not really surviving in a vacuum. It still needs a supply of oxygen, and where does that come from?
To get any further I think you have to go into the realms of total fantasy. In some sci. fi. novel you could try to invent a creature that works like the vacuumorph. but somehow gets its oxygen by extracting it from perchlorates or from hydrogen peroxide. I.e. it eats salts that are toxic to us in order to get oxygen to breath.
You could then make it perhaps cold blooded to reduce the amount of oxygen it needs,...
Or alternatively, a creature that is basically an intelligent lichen. Lichens can survive in Mars simulation conditions. They include a fungus component that needs oxygen which it gets from the algae component. Only tiny amounts of oxygen but some.
So now again science fiction, this future "human" consists of maybe an acre of lichen which somehow is able to support intelligence through a network of neurons spread through the lichen. Or some such. Just throwing out a few ideas for brainstorming, could be useful in very speculative Sci. Fi.
Of course it is vastly stretching the concept of “human”, assuming we can be genetically modified in ways that we can’t even begin to sketch out at present.
Artist's impression of the ...(more)
Artist's impression of the NASA Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer.
It was an all sky survey and in results published in 2014 using data collected in 2010 and 2011, has ruled out the possibility of a Saturn sized object out to 10,000 times the Earth - Sun distance, and a Jupiter size or larger object out to 26,000 times that distance. (I.e. 26,000 AU.)
"Another approach was the proposal to send a spacecraft on a one-way trip to the moon. In this concept, the astronaut would be deliberately stranded on the lunar surface and resupplied by rockets shot at him for, conceivably, several years until the space agency developed the capability to bring him back!"
A silly made up planet. No science behind it, lots of misunderstandings. For instance they often refer to the anomalies in the orbits of Uranus and Neptune - something that was explained in 1993, s...
(more)A silly made up planet. No science behind it, lots of misunderstandings. For instance they often refer to the anomalies in the orbits of Uranus and Neptune - something that was explained in 1993, so that's 23 years out of date.
Planet X is a real possibility. It's a generic name, first invented by Percival Lowell in 1905, and now used generally to refer to a planet that you hypothesize to exist but haven't found yet. The very fact it is called planet X therefore means it hasn't been discovered yet. Been many different planet Xs, each in turn ruled out.
Nemesis is the name of a star that was hypothesized to bring more comets than usual into the inner solar system every 26 million years. Searches showed that it doesn't exist.
Then Tyche was a new name for "Nemesis's good sister" - no longer hypothesized to bring comets into the inner solar system because it would be in a near circular orbit. It too was shown not to exist.
They now think there might be a planet about the size of Mars or Earth orbiting around 50 au or so away from Earth to explain the Kuiper Cliff drop off of numbers of dwarf planets when you'd expect an increase. A bit like Saturn's rings shepherding moons. This is still on the cards as a possible extra planet - but would orbit permanently in a circular orbit again well beyond Pluto.
They've mixed these ideas up, reduced the length of the 26 million years of Nemesis to 3600 years, turned it into a planet, made it into a planet that comes into the inner solar system inside of Earth's orbit, then they also add the absurd idea that it can hide behind the sun, to explain why astronomers haven't found it yet. They think it can hide behind the sun for years on end, and then suddenly come out and hit Earth within a month or two.
If you go to their websites and videos, you also find out that many of them think that NASA has been monitoring this for a long time and won't tell anyone else because it would make us scared, and that there is a collaboration of world governments internationally to keep us all from getting upset by this coming disaster. They also think that Nibiru is an entire solar system orbiting a star called Nemesis, and that there are intelligent creatures who evolved on Nibiru who are able to interbreed with humans when they are close to Earth.
They think that Nibiru is visible in the daytime sky if you video the sun. That sometimes (but not always) you can spot it as a bright spot next to the sun. Which in some photos is as big as the sun - they think that's not the planet itself but more like a comet tail around it - and sometimes is really tiny. And yet - all the astronomers who could observe this thing, they think, are in a conspiracy of silence or paid off by governments not to report it.
It's all LOL silly. But if you don't have a background in astronomy then it is easy, apparently, to think this is all valid stuff.
David Morrison reports that when he was doing his "ask an astrobiologist" column for NASA he would spend an hour every day answering emails about Nibiru and related apocalyptic topics from members of the public who were genuinely very scared about it. Some even suicidal.
I just recently did a couple of articles on it - the most recent: "Imaginary Bullshit Planet" Nibiru - Lens Flares, Sun Mirages, Hoaxes & Just Plain Silly
And I've also been getting many comments from the general public who are very scared that this is going to kill them all this December - or March. Asking over and over - is it real, are you scared of it, are you paid by the government to hide it, how do you know it isn't real, why is it only you saying this (because the debunking sites are so way down the search results that apparently for many of them, my article is the first one they've seen that debunks it) and so on.
It keeps coming around with different dates - previous dates for Nibiru to bring an end to human life on Earth were in 2012 (where for some reason they associated this Sumerian god as they say it is, with a Mayan calender), and in 2003, and some dates in between.
Search on Amazon and you'll find numerous books about it.
Amazon.com: Nibiru: Books and if you imagine coming to it not knowing anything about astronomy - it would seem a unanimous opinion that this planet exists - because every single book on the first page and probably for several pages, says it exists.
To try to do my little bit to counter it, I've made my own kindle book
which is also available to read for free as my science20 blog post. "Imaginary Bullshit Planet" Nibiru - Lens Flares, Sun Mirages, Hoaxes & Just Plain Silly
Not sure how much it is going to help - because it is also available for free, probably won't get many amazon sales, so not likely to move high up their search result ranking which is by the numbers of sales and reviews I imagine - but at least it means there's one quite substantial debunking book there for them to come across which some may find.
It's got a lot of good and fun science in it. About the real search for planet X, the Kuiper belt, sun mirages and lens flares, the state of play of the asteroid search, the search for Vulcan in the late C19 and the present day search for vulcanoids, and many more topics.
My idea is that the best way to counteract this nonsense is to get in a lot of interesting fun astronomy and get them a bit interested in real astronomy - with any astronomical background at all, they'd be able to see for themselves that it is LOL silly.
I have had one sale of the Amazon kindle book so far. So someone there found it useful :). Well or could be just someone reading it for fun, don't know.
The other thing one can do is to make a youtube video. But Nibiru debunking videos are liable to be cut and made into evidence for a Nibiru hiding conspiracy, and also just don't get liked as much as the ones that say it's really going to happen or something - they are way down in the search results for Nibiru on youtube..
Still David Morrison did do a couple of videos and I'm sure they must have helped many people.
If you care about this, please sign my petition: Let's End Dramatized Reporting of "Doomsday" Stories - The Vulnerable Get Suicidal
Artist's impression of the NASA Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer. Researchers proved that Nibiru and Tyche can't exist in results published in 2014, using data that it collected in 2010 to 2011.
Has a dip at 50 au. Models showed the number of objects should double at 50 au. So some suggest there must be a planet, as large as Mars or Earth to "shepherd" the kuiper belt like Saturn's shepherding moons for its rings. What if we find an object large enough to do that, also as large as Mars or Earth, but which can't "clear its orbit" according to the IAU definition.
The special regions of Mars are regions where it's thought there's a possibility of habitats where Earth life could be able to survive. This includes the black asterisks on this map. So humans on the surface couldn't land in any of those regions - everyone agrees on that - for planetary protection reasons. But then - what about a hard landing if the spacecraft misfires its motors, for instance - a crash?
And anyway Mars is one connected planet with global dust storms and wind patterns - can you guarantee contamination by Earth life that will stay in one part of Mars, again especially after a crash? It would be a risky mission, especially for humans, and if you had, say, a half dozen missions without a crash, still, it doesn't prove much. The next one could be the first one to crash - often happens with early versions of vehicles, test flights etc. The landing on Mars is likely to be one of the most risky points in the journey. Even without a crash, you can't land an "inside out biocontainment laboratory" on Mars with humans on the inside of it.
The only way this can be consistent with planetary protection is through relying entirely on hostility of the surface of Mars to protect the planet. But that's not certain, that you can do this.
This information is 32 years out of date. Here is a brief history of what happened:
First, Pluto was discovered because of unexplained perturbations of the orbits of Uranus and Saturn. Clyde Tombaug...
(more)This information is 32 years out of date. Here is a brief history of what happened:
First, Pluto was discovered because of unexplained perturbations of the orbits of Uranus and Saturn. Clyde Tombaugh found Pluto in 1930 just six degrees from one of the two places Lowell predicted from analysing the perturbations (after searching much of the sky for it).
That seemed like a confirmation of the predictions at first, especially since Neptune had already been discovered in the same way in 1846, nearly a century earlier, by analysing perturbations of Uranus
But then Pluto turned out to be far too light to explain anything.
For a long time, nobody could solve this, right to nearly the end of the twentieth century.
Robert Harrington tried to predict where the "Planet X" would be.
However . this speculation ended in 1993 when E Myles Standish used data from Voyager 2's 1989 flyby of Neptune to revise its mass. With this new revised mass, then the discrepancies disappeared.
Robert Harrington died six months later - of cancer. The conspiracy theorists make a big thing of this saying he was murdered - but surely someone who dies of cancer is the least likely of anyone to be murdered :). There is no suggestion at all that he was. What they don't mention or don't know is that his planet X was already disproved six months before he died and that's why there were no more stories for quite a while, not becuse it was being silenced, just because there was no point in looking for something as the discrepancies were now fully explained.
So it seems the discovery of Pluto in one of the places for Planet X was just a coincidence. It's not such a huge coincidence as all that - they were searching along the ecliptic, and 6 degrees from one of two positions means it was in a 24 degree section of the search space, out of 360 degrees. Or a bit under 7% of the search space. Very roughly just back of the envelope calculation. That's like quite a coincidence but not like a massive coincidence.
There have been many searches for planet X since then, other reasons mainly patterns in the orbits of comets. Finally was shown that if there is an extra planet, it can't be large and close by. Ruled out a planet as large as Saturn all the way to 10,000 au (Pluto is about 39.5 au from the sun). That's was a search done with an ultrasensitive infrared telescope called WISE.
Artist's impression of the NASA Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer. Researchers proved that Nibiru and Tyche can't exist in results published in 2014, using data that it collected in 2010 to 2011.
It was an all sky survey and has ruled out the possibility of a Saturn sized object out to 10,000 times the Earth - Sun distance, and a Jupiter size or larger object out to 26,000 times that distance. (I.e. 26,000 AU.)
It's still possible that a smaller "planet X exists". Some think that the Kuiper cliff
is evidence of a large planet, far larger than Pluto, perhaps as large as Earth or Mars may be responsible. But this would be like the Saturn "Shepherd moons" - to create the cliff it has to orbit permanently at a distance of over 50 au from the sun in an orbit which is almost circular. So would never come closes to the sun. See The Existence of a Planet beyond 50 AU and the Orbital Distribution of the Classical Edgeworth-Kuiper-Belt Objects
The Nibiru conspiracy sites tend to link to stories about the searches for planet X and even for a brown dwarf or red dwarf - and not to link to the conclusions of all those searches, which proved that they don't exist. Whether that's selective reporting, or just that they don't know about the conclusions of the searches I don't know. In the case of the WISE search, it's a recent result, published only last year. But in the case of the Uranus and Neptune anomalies, they are 32 years out of date so just can't have asked the right people or looked it up in the right places if it is just a genuine mistake.
These sites tend to be very unsophisticated, you get the impression they learnt what they know about science from movies rather than physics teachers, or science books, some of them. So it could easily be that they just don't know they are 32 years out of date.
For more about Nibiru, see my
Or read for free online at "Imaginary Bullshit Planet" Nibiru - Lens Flares, Sun Mirages, Hoaxes & Just Plain Silly
If you care about this, please sign my online petition at Change.org: Let's End Dramatized Reporting of "Doomsday" Stories - The Vulnerable Get Suicidal
Another likely candidate for Mars, haloarchaea - salt loving bacteria, they turn the Red sea Red - and they use photosythesis for energy, and are tolerant of high levels of salt.This shows quartz inclusions in the coastal regions of the Atacama desert. You can see green algae beneath rock surfaces in the coastal regions of the Atacama desert here. Quartz inclusions on Mars could be an especially good place for them to survive. They need little more than sunlight, CO2, some source of water, and a few trace elements to survive, and as prime producers, don't rely on any other lifeforms.
Same wind velocities, yes. Same effects, no. Our rovers don't notice the storms, except that the dust devils conveniently clean the dust off the solar panels.
(more)Same wind velocities, yes. Same effects, no. Our rovers don't notice the storms, except that the dust devils conveniently clean the dust off the solar panels.
See Robert Walker's answer to How realistic is the book "The Martian"?
"The next question the students considered was how much land area could you build in such habitats, using the material resources of the moon or the asteroids, which may be readily available in space? What are the limits to growth?
"The first answers they came up with indicated there was more than a thousand times the land area of Earth as the potential room for expansion. They concluded that the surface of a planet was not the best place for a technical civilization. The best places looked like new, artificial bodies in space, or inside-out planets."
Colonies in Space: Chapter 2
"Terrifying stuff. Apparently, the planet due to collide with us is often visible, you may have seen it already. If you spot a blob next to the sun when you take a photograph, it could be the deadly planet, not a reflection."
Russian 1970s idea to colonize the Venus cloud tops... (more)
Russian 1970s idea to colonize the Venus cloud tops
"Ice covered lakes that form in polar regions after large impacts
This is a possibility that was highlighted recently with the close flyby of Mars by the comet Sliding Spring in 2014 C/2013 A1 Sliding Spring. Before its trajectory was known in detail, there remained a small chance that it could hit Mars. Calculations showed it could create a crater of many km in diameter and perhaps a couple of km deep. If a comet like that was to hit polar regions or higher attitudes of Mars, away from the equator, it would create a temporary lake, which life could survive in.
Models suggest that a crater 30 - 50 km in diameter formed by a comet of a few kilometers in diameter would result in an underground hydrothermal system that remains liquid for thousands of years. This happens even in cold conditions so is not limited to early Mars, so a similar impact based temporary underground hydrothermal system could be created today if there was a large enough impact like Sliding Spring. The lake is kept heated by the melted rock from the initial impact in hydrothermal systems fed by underground aquifers.Temporary lakes resulting from volcanic activity
There is evidence that volcanism formed lakes 210 million years ago on one of the flanks of Arsia Mons, relatively recent in geological terms. This may have consisted of two lakes of around 40 cubic kilometers of water, and a third one of 20 cubic kilometers of water, which probably remained liquid for hundreds, or even of the order of thousands of years.Two views of Arsia Mons, based on Viking orbiter imagery and Mars Global Surveyor elevation data, from the south (top) and north (bottom).
Arsia Mons is the southernmost of the volcanoes of Tharsis Montes. It is depicted using a Viking image mosaic draped over MOLA topography. The topography shows the caldera structure and the massive flank breakouts that produced two major side lobes on opposite sides of the volcano. The vertical exaggeration is 10:1.
There is evidence of lakes that formed 210 million years ago on the flanks of Arsia Mons. Compared with the 4.5 billion year history of Mars, this is relatively recent. It may have had two lakes of around 40 cubic kilometers of water, and a third one of 20 cubic kilometers of water, which stayed liquid for centuries, possibly for millennia."
Are There Habitats For Life On Mars? - Salty Seeps, Clear Ice Greenhouses, Ice Fumaroles, Dune Bioreactors,...
APOD: 2014 April 7
This painting of the Earth as seen from the Moon during an eclipse is by Lucien Rudaux, space artist, living in first half of the twentieth century.
Incidentally, this was painted long before anyone had ever visited the Moon. When most space artists were painting jagged mountains, he pointed out that the mountains were clearly rounded through a telescope, especially when silhouetted against the edge of the disk, writing: "If we reconstruct geometrically the outlines of certain lunar mountains from their observed appearance, we shall find that instead of being steep and jagged, they have quite gentle slopes and their summits are frequently flat or smoothly rounded." - The first science artist to draw accurate pictures of Mars and the Moon
For more on this, see Why a totally eclipsed moon looks red | EarthSky.org
"In the early morning hours of April 15, 2014, the Moon enters the Earth’s shadow, creating a total lunar eclipse. When viewed from the Moon, as in this animation, the Earth hides the Sun. A red ring, the sum of all Earth’s sunrises and sunsets, lines the Earth’s limb and casts a ruddy light on the lunar landscape. With the darkness of the eclipse, the stars come out.
"The city lights of North and South America are visible on the night side of the Earth. The part of the Earth visible in this animation is the part where the lunar eclipse can be seen."
Lunar eclipse of 15th April 2014, seen from the Moon.
September 24th 2015 - Just Another Day in Space (Amazon)
This is the spectacular view of Mars from Deimos
"We must find out if it is possible to get humans to the surface of Mars without contaminating it with Earth life irreversibly"
"We must find a way to get humans to the surface of Mars without contaminating it with Earth life irreversibly".
"We will send a human to the Mars surface by 2030"
"If it doesn't impact on our science goals and the goals of other countries and the long term interests of humanity, we will send a human to the Mars surface by 2030"
" The biggest issue associated with planetary protection and pressure garments is that they leak…the “leak-proof” space suit is on the same par with a perpetual motion machine… • When suits leak, they leak gas, but they also leak particulates present within the suit environment, including particles that undoubtedly harbor bugs"
Dressed for Success - Dean Eppler
And then you get these global dust storms - which we don't get on Earth. The dust particles are tiny, like talcum powder or cigarette smoke. But a microbe spore could easily shelter from the UV light imbedded in a grain of dust - the iron helps protect from UV light - and then be blown anywhere on Mars.
This is the light which turns an eclipsed moon red, as seen from the space station.
APOD: 2014 April 7 (thanks to Jeffrey Phillips in comment for alerting me to this :) )
This painting of the Earth as seen from the Moon during an eclipse is by Lucien Rudaux, space artist, living in first half of the twentieth century.For more on this, see Why a totally eclipsed moon looks red | EarthSky.org
Incidentally, this was painted long before anyone had ever visited the Moon. When most space artists were painting jagged mountains, he pointed out that the mountains were clearly rounded through a telescope, especially when silhouetted against the edge of the disk, writing: "If we reconstruct geometrically the outlines of certain lunar mountains from their observed appearance, we shall find that instead of being steep and jagged, they have quite gentle slopes and their summits are frequently flat or smoothly rounded." - The first science artist to draw accurate pictures of Mars and the Moon
"In the early morning hours of April 15, 2014, the Moon enters the Earth’s shadow, creating a total lunar eclipse. When viewed from the Moon, as in this animation, the Earth hides the Sun. A red ring, the sum of all Earth’s sunrises and sunsets, lines the Earth’s limb and casts a ruddy light on the lunar landscape. With the darkness of the eclipse, the stars come out.Nothing at all to do with blood. And this happens during every lunar eclipse.
"The city lights of North and South America are visible on the night side of the Earth. The part of the Earth visible in this animation is the part where the lunar eclipse can be seen."
Lunar eclipse of 15th April 2014, seen from the Moon.
NASA's Langley Research Center Artist's concept of the Mars Airplane - one of many ideas - this is a tiny plane with five foot wingspan which folds to fit into an aeroshell for entry into the Mars atmosphere.With one of these planes they found a way to put it into a stall at a 70° angle towards the ground, They found that in this configuration, it falls reasonably slowly, rather like a parachute. The plan was to add thrusters for a vertical soft landing on the Martian surface.
States Parties to the Treaty shall bear international responsibility for national activities in outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, whether such activities are carried on by governmental agencies or by non-governmental entities, and for assuring that national activities are carried out in conformity with the provisions set forth in the present Treaty. The activities of non-governmental entities in outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, shall require authorization and continuing supervision by the appropriate State Party to the Treaty. When activities are carried on in outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, by an international organization, responsibility for compliance with this Treaty shall be borne both by the international organization and by the States Parties to the Treaty participating in such organization.
(emphasis as copied from this : You can't own the Sun. No. Not yours.)
Article IX
In the exploration and use of outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, States Parties to the Treaty shall be guided by the principle of co-operation and mutual assistance and shall conduct all their activities in outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, with due regard to the corresponding interests of all other States Parties to the Treaty. States Parties to the Treaty shall pursue studies of outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, and conduct exploration of them so as to avoid their harmful contamination and also adverse changes in the environment of the Earth resulting from the introduction of extraterrestrial matter and, where necessary, shall adopt appropriate measures for this purpose. If a State Party to the Treaty has reason to believe that an activity or experiment planned by it or its nationals in outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, would cause potentially harmful interference with activities of other States Parties in the peaceful exploration and use of outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, it shall undertake appropriate international consultations before proceeding with any such activity or experiment. A State Party to the Treaty which has reason to believe that an activity or experiment planned by another State Party in outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, would cause potentially harmful interference with activities in the peaceful exploration and use of outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, may request consultation concerning the activity or experiment.
Outer Space Treaty of 1967
No, they aren't powerful enough.
First, nukes are nowhere near as powerful as a comet impact. A large comet would release about as much energy as 625,000 of the Tsar Bomba, at fifty megatons, the mo...
(more)No, they aren't powerful enough.
First, nukes are nowhere near as powerful as a comet impact. A large comet would release about as much energy as 625,000 of the Tsar Bomba, at fifty megatons, the most powerful nuclear weapon ever tested.
A single large comet impact is equivalent in yield to around 625,000 of these - the most powerful nuclear weapon ever tested
Then, comet impacts also are not powerful enough either, as they haven't terraformed Mars yet.
\
Comet impacts haven't terraformed Mars
It is true that Mars can be pushed into a runaway greenhouse effect, where all the dry ice gets evaporated into the atmosphere.
However, to get to that point you need to have an atmosphere that is about 10% of the atmospheric pressure of the Earth at sea level. Mars current atmosphere is 1% so you need to somehow release nine times the current amount of CO2 in its atmosphere.
From this graph, Chris McKay, a leading planetary astrogeophysicist, deduces that to get Mars to go into a runaway greenhouse effect using just CO2, it needs about 100 millibars - or same pressure as 10% of Earth's atmosphere, to be released into the atmosphere.
It is not clear whether Mars has that much dry ice. There is enough to double its atmosphere. But to end up with ten times its current atmosphere is less certain.
If you don't release enough CO2, then it will revert to its current state because a denser atmosphere would be out of equilibrium with the vapour pressure of the dry ice at its poles, so it would all condense back to its poles as dry ice.
The amount of CO2 released by a single Tsar Bomba is tiny, even if you dropped it directly on a known dry ice deposit at the poles. You would need billions of them to release enough to push it into a runaway greenhouse state.
For more of this see my Why Nukes Can't Terraform Mars - Pack Less Punch Than A Comet Collision
(This answer is a taken from the summary introduction to that article,. just copy and paste, which I can do as I'm the author of the article)
Elon Musk later clarified it by saying that he meant nuclear weapons detonating continuously over both poles of Mars to create two new mini suns - a far future sci. fi. scenario.
"What I was talking about," said Musk, "was having a series of very large, by our standards, but very small by calamity standards--essentially having two tiny pulsing suns over the poles.”
Elon Musk Clarifies His Suggestion To Terraform Mars By Nuking It
Meet "the Hobbit", Homo floresiensis, in The Human Journey. Photo: Staffan Waerndt. The Human Journey
"But nothing is certain and all the evidence is still ambiguous. The author is probably more skeptical about these being real biogenic fossils than most. He is perplexed by the dimples on the spherules and would assign the spherules maybe a 3 percent chance of being organically formed. His proposed microbial or algae mat has maybe a 4 percent chance of being organic.The exo-corals, and the exo-cephalopods, the rotinis and other vug objects should, almost certainly, be explained using non-biological processes. Corals and worms are organisms too evolutionarily advanced to hope for the small window of life that Mars had open. However, the importance of finding fossils on Mars is so momentous that, even with these unlikely odds, the possibility should be explored thoroughly."
See Mars Fossils, Pseudofossils or Problematica
Six meter diameter hole in Chebarkul Lake made by a fragment of the meteorite. Photo credit: Chebarkul town head Andrey Orlov. See: Meteorite hits Russian Urals: Fireball explosion wreaks havoc, up to 1,200 injured (PHOTOS, VIDEO)
80 tonnes 4.1 meters in diameter, hit in the Sudan desert and about 600 meteorite fragments were recovered. It was detected only 19 hours before impact, but was the first ever successful prediction of a meteorite impact.
"Article IV(more)
"States Parties to the Treaty undertake not to place in orbit around the Earth any objects carrying nu...
"Article IV
"States Parties to the Treaty undertake not to place in orbit around the Earth any objects carrying nuclear weapons or any other kinds of weapons of mass destruction, install such weapons on celestial bodies, or station such weapons in outer space in any other manner.
"The Moon and other celestial bodies shall be used by all States Parties to the Treaty exclusively for peaceful purposes. The establishment of military bases, installations and fortifications, the testing of any type of weapons and the conduct of military maneuvers on celestial bodies shall be forbidden. The use of military personnel for scientific research or for any other peaceful purposes shall not be prohibited. The use of any equipment or facility necessary for peaceful exploration of the Moon and other celestial bodies shall also not be prohibited."
Article IX
"In the exploration and use of outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, States Parties to the Treaty shall be guided by the principle of co-operation and mutual assistance and shall conduct all their activities in outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, with due regard to the corresponding interests of all other States Parties to the Treaty. States Parties to the Treaty shall pursue studies of outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, and conduct exploration of them so as to avoid their harmful contamination and also adverse changes in the environment of the Earth resulting from the introduction of extraterrestrial matter and, where necessary, shall adopt appropriate measures for this purpose. If a State Party to the Treaty has reason to believe that an activity or experiment planned by it or its nationals in outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, would cause potentially harmful interference with activities of other States Parties in the peaceful exploration and use of outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, it shall undertake appropriate international consultations before proceeding with any such activity or experiment. A State Party to the Treaty which has reason to believe that an activity or experiment planned by another State Party in outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, would cause potentially harmful interference with activities in the peaceful exploration and use of outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, may request consultation concerning the activity or experiment."
This has lead to a huge amount of discussion by lawyers about what this article means, which no way am I the right person to try to explain - but in particular, "harmful contamination" has been taken to include contamination that interferes with the scientific investigations of other parties to the treaty (though not limited to it).
First, yes, this image was created by stitching together images - as many of the modern ones are. That's because our satellites tend to orbit close to the Earth and have cameras designed to take cl...
(more)First, yes, this image was created by stitching together images - as many of the modern ones are. That's because our satellites tend to orbit close to the Earth and have cameras designed to take close up images of parts of the Earth. So, many of them can't get the entire planet into a single frame.
Then, again, yes, the scientist who made this image cloned some of the clouds. The explanation is here:
"Then he created a "map of clouds stitched together from 200 satellite scenes" as well as a topographic map to add elevation to our planet's land masses. Some of the clouds are cloned because, as he told me via email, "there are gaps between orbits near the equator, and there's no way to fill them with real data.""
The Secrets Behind the Most Famous Earth Image of All Time
There are many "blue Earth" photographs. Many of them are made by stitching together photographs taken close up.
Others are single photographs.
To find out which is which, you have to look up the original and read the description.
Also close up images of Earth, stitched together, often show only a small portion of the Earth's globe. So they may not show even half the globe - because they simulate the view from the spacecraft which is close up.
Here is a selection of some of the single photos of Earth by distant spacecraft
Earth from lunar orbit, Apollo 8 image of Earth AS8-14-2383 taken by Astronaut William Anders using a Hasselblad camera with a 3-inch lens.
Photograph of Earth and Moon taken by the Galileo spacecraft. Earth and Moon seem a lot closer to each other than they are - image foreshortened.
Photo by the Messenger spacecraft, on its way to Mercury.
Earth and Moon from Mars Reconnassance orbiter - Earth colours toned down
Earth as a pale blue dot photographed by Cassini from Saturn, through its rings.
I got those from: Watching the Earth From Space
10 Views of Earth from the Moon, Mars and Beyond [Slide Show]
See also
Dark side of the moon captured by Nasa satellite a million miles from Earth
This is another video this time of the Moon passing behind the Earth DSCOVR satellite's 'million mile camera' captures lunar eclipse - BBC News
A sample-return mission to Phobos would return material both from Phobos and from Mars.Credit: NASA
Shows trajectories of debris from an impact on Mars and the orbits of Mars's two moon's, Phobos (innermost moon) and Deimos
"The team concluded that a 200-gram sample scooped from the surface of Phobos could contain, on average, about one-tenth of a milligram of Mars surface material launched in the past 10 million years and 50 billion individual particles from Mars. The same sample could contain as much as 50 milligrams of Mars surface material from the past 3.5 billion years.
"'The time frames are important because it is thought that after 10 million years of exposure to the high levels of radiation on Phobos, any biologically active material would be destroyed," Howell said. "Of course older Martian material would still be rich with information, but there would be much less concern about bringing a viable organism back to Earth and necessary quarantine measures.'"
Stickney crater on Phobos. This large crater faces towards Mars. A base sited here would be protected from solar storms, and also from cosmic radiation. It's blocked by Mars overhead, Phobos below and the crater rim to all sides, and so gets only 10% of the cosmic radiation of an unprotected base.
It's not possible.
I found it surprising how seriously his rather off the cuff, and joking, remark was taken, reported as a major news story by many journalists. For instance, the Independent reports Want to make Mars hospitable? Drop nuclear bombs, says Elon Musk and many other headlines of that nature. It was followed soon after by stories from more thoughtful reporters saying that it is impossible. e.g. Sorry, Elon Musk: One Does Not Simply Nuke Mars Into Habitability in the Huffington post. He later clarified his plans by saying he meant exploding a fusion bomb every few seconds over its poles to create a mini sun. A rather far future science fiction idea that's not practical today. Elon Musk Clarifies His Plan to "Nuke Mars"
First, nukes are nowhere near as powerful as a comet impact. A large comet would release about as much energy as 625,000 of the Tsar Bomba, at fifty megatons, the most powerful nuclear weapon ever tested.
A single large comet impact is equivalent in yield to around 625,000 of these - the most powerful nuclear weapon ever tested
Then, comet impacts also are not powerful enough either, as they haven't terraformed Mars yet.
\
Comet impacts haven't terraformed Mars
It is true that Mars can be pushed into a runaway greenhouse effect, where all the dry ice gets evaporated into the atmosphere.
However, to get to that point you need to have an atmosphere that is about 10% of the atmospheric pressure of the Earth at sea level. Mars current atmosphere is 1% so you need to somehow release nine times the current amount of CO2 in its atmosphere.
From this graph, Chris McKay, a leading planetary astrogeophysicist, deduces that to get Mars to go into a runaway greenhouse effect using just CO2, it needs about 100 millibars - or same pressure as 10% of Earth's atmosphere, to be released into the atmosphere.
It is not clear whether Mars has that much dry ice. There is enough to double its atmosphere. But to end up with ten times its current atmosphere is less certain.
If you don't release enough CO2, then it will revert to its current state because a denser atmosphere would be out of equilibrium with the vapour pressure of the dry ice at its poles, so it would all condense back to its poles as dry ice.
The amount of CO2 released by a single Tsar Bomba is tiny, even if you
dropped it directly on a known dry ice deposit at the poles. You would need billions of them to release enough to push it into a runaway greenhouse state.
It does seem to be possible using powerful greenhouse gases, which some think is the easiest way to do it. But this is still is a large scale project.
You'd need to mine over 11 cubic kilometers of fluorite ore on Mars. More than that if you have to use ores with lower concentrations of fluorine. It requires the output of over 200 nuclear power stations on Mars, working on creating these gases 24/7 for a century before you can push it into the new state.
And then, even a thick CO2 rich atmosphere on Mars is not enough to keep it warm enough to be habitable for much more than microbes and hardy lichens and such like.
After this runaway greenhouse, if you could get it to work, it would be warm enough for liquid water on Mars occasionally, but any standing water would turn to ice, chances are, and at any rate it's not likely to get hot enough for trees to grow.
You'd need constant resupply of greenhouse gases, or space mirrors or such like to keep it warm enough for habitability. And then it would take about a hundred thousand years of photosynthesis to get from that to an oxygen rich atmosphere.
Also, once you get an oxygen rich atmosphere, you then lose the warming effect of the CO2 (because oxygen and nitrogen are not greenhouse gases - water vapour is, but you don't have enough of that).
So, you would need to increase production of the greenhouse gases when the CO2 is converted to oxygen - or build more space mirrors to keep the planet warm or it would plunge back to its present cold state.
The natural average surface temperature of Mars, if you gave it an atmosphere like Earth, is around -50 °C. (By comparison, the same figure for Earth is 16 °C).
Fluorine based gases could be used to heat up the atmosphere enough, but it would take more than 11 cubic kilometers of this ore, or more if it has a lower proportion of fluorine, to make enough powerful greenhouse gases to warm up Mars enough, and require output of over 200 nuclear power stations for a hundred years.
There are many more issues with terraforming Mars, some of those issues are covered in detail in my Trouble with Terraforming Mars.
So, in short, it can't be done.
I wrote this up in more detail in my Why Nukes Can't Terraform Mars - Pack Less Punch Than A Comet Collision
(this summary comes from its introduction)
Also have written this up as an ebook:
Artist's impression of the Martian Geysers which have been detected from orbit by the dark marks they leave.
One of many fresh impact craters on Mars spotted from orbit. It gets hit by 200 meteorites large enough to create small craters like this every year (much higher frequency than Earth because closer to the asteroid belt, and also thinner atmosphere). See Pow! Mars Hit By Space Rocks 200 Times a Year
Moon goes red like this for every lunar eclipse - sometimes redder than other times depending on the atmospheric conditions on Earth. This is the combined light from the sunrises and sunsets occurring at the time of eclipse, and nothing to do with blood.This is what it would look like from the Moon.
Artist's impression of the Earth seen from the Moon during a lunar eclipse with the landscape red with the sunsets and sunrises of all the places on Earth where it is rising or setting at the time of the eclipse.
As you see really bright fireballs hit the Earth regularly. Eventually we'll be able to predict the brightest of these as we track smaller and smaller asteroids.
So - this is far more probable as the first accurate news paper story about a prediction, just because they are so much more common than the larger ones
- a prediction of a bright fireball, probably over a remote area or the sea as it is rare that they come near populated areas - and maybe causing a small crater, maybe a few remnants hit the surface, maybe it all burns up in the upper atmosphere. And astronomers would probably flock from around the world to view the predicted impact and observe it.
Dust devil captured by Spirit Rover. These are very short lived and so the rovers needed to have some autonomous decision making to photograph them.
Texture cam can distinguish rocks from soil, and also identify potentially interesting rock textures. You could, for instance, tell it to drive over a hill and take a photograph of every interesting rock it sees. Next day you look at all its photos and tell it which one you want it to go back to.
Outer Space Treaty parties in green, signatories (not yet ratified) in yellow, non signatories in red.
All space faring and aspiring space faring countries have signed it now, including North Korea.
Lhborbits - Simulation showing Outer Planets and Kuiper Belt: a)Before Jupiter/Saturn 2:1 resonance b) Scattering of Kuiper Belt objects into the solar system after the orbital shift of Neptune c) After ejection of Kuiper Belt bodies by JupiterFor more about this see Nice model
A large trailing ballute has the advantage that it can de-orbit large payloads with minimal protection as the slow down happens higher up in the atmosphere and most of the effects are on the trailing ballute rather than the payload. Page on nasa.gov
"American manned rescue spacecraft. Study 1966. The Rockwell SAVER concept provided return of a single crew member in his ejection seat. A nosecap only the size of the seat absorbed most of the re-entry heat.The rest was dissipated through a huge inflatable balloon deployed from the seat. " SAVERSee also Paracone/MOOSE/SAVER/AIRMAT: Escape Pods from Orbit
"Finally, we note that, although further study of the feasibility of diverting asteroids may be warranted, we do not believe it is appropriate to conduct engineering designs of systems at this stage because of the low probability of impact of hazardous asteroids, the high cost in the face of a low risk factor, and the rapid changes that are to be expected in defense systems technology"
(see also Page on washington.edu which briefly mentions it)
The short answer is, it could be disintegrated with a 1 gigaton hydrogen bomb - but not likely to get that ready in time with just a few months warning. That does of course result in lots of smalle...
(more)The short answer is, it could be disintegrated with a 1 gigaton hydrogen bomb - but not likely to get that ready in time with just a few months warning. That does of course result in lots of smaller asteroids - but many would burn up in the atmosphere, and others would miss Earth, and the ones that were left would probably have less impact than the original big hit. So that is something that could be done. You'd have to weigh up the benefits, also depends on whether technically feasible to get it together at such short notice.
But very unlikely to happen with such short notice.
There's a 1 in a million chance of getting hit by something so large in the next 20 years. and by then we'd have the Near Earth Asteroids mapped out so thoroughly that such a large asteroid hit would probably be known about decades in advance.
We have mapped out 90% of the NEO population of 1 km size, and find a new one every month, expect to get to 99% by the 2020s - this part of the NEO search is going really well - it's the smaller 100 meter ones that are tough to find. That leaves the ones that are currently way beyond Jupiter still to find after that. Most of the population is thought to be inside of Jupiter.
And a rock of 1 km in diameter would have mainly local effects, so you could also evacuate the part of the world that it is due to hit.
In the remote chance that we have only a few months notice, right now, that's almost certainly what we'd need to do.
But it's not worth sinking large sums of money into constructing methods for disintegrating 1 km asteroids with a few months notice.
Far better use of our money right now to map the potential impacts thoroughly so we'll have decades, or centuries of warning first.
As for moving it - we'd have to change its velocity by about 1000 km a month, so about 1.38 km / hour. It's much easier to do if you have a longer period of warning - which is why it is so important to detect them. If we had a decade of warning, then it is a tenth of that, 138 meters per hour change in velocity. And if it does a flyby of Earth first before it hits - very likely as Earth is such a tiny target, then it's just perhaps 200 meters in a decade if detected a decade before the flyby, to avoid the gravitational keyhole for its first encounter with Earth.
So that then becomes just 20 meters a year, or about 2 cms an hour delta v.
So much easier to deal with with lots of advance warning.
Then it is also very unlikely that the first accurate impact prediction we get is of a 1 km asteroid. The first few impact predictions are almost certain to be tiny things from 10s of meters up to 100 meters or so, as there are so many of those.
So we can learn how to deflect those first, and in natural course of events work up to the larger ones, which are also easy to deflect if you catch them at least one close flyby in advance. I think it makes most sense to develop capabilities on demand like this - given that it is hard to get funding, so funding is best used for detecting the asteroids. While if we have an already detected asteroid headed for Earth, most likely a couple of decades into the future after a thorough search like that - it would surely be much easier to get funding to deflect it. And different asteroids would need different deflection methods, so whatever you develop might not be what you need for the first asteroid you need to deflect, unless you develop ways to deflect them all - you could do that with lots of funding.
In detail:
First, this is a low probability event. Far more likely to be hit by smaller asteroids, so expect those more likely as first successful predictions.
Also the Earth is a tiny target, so if we do find a 1 km asteroid headed our way with only a few months notice, chance is very high that it misses Earth as we work out the trajectory more accurately.
And if it misses Earth, it probably does many flybys before it hits, and those near flybys give us lots of opportunities to deflect it with a small amount of delta v, less than 1 meter per second.
Still, it's not impossible, there's a one in a million chance that it could happen in the next couple of decades, and one in two thousand chance of it happening this century (happens every 200,000 years on average).
So let's look at the effects, as one thing we could do is to just evacuate the impact zone as far as possible.
See Environmental Damage from Asteroid and Comet Impacts
So - at this size we definitely need to deflect it if we can.
And it's possible - an asteroid impact is about the only natural disaster that we can prevent totally (unlike Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunami from earthquakes etc)
But we don't really have anything that is ready to hand to deflect something this large this quickly.
Russians and Americans experts together came up with a plan for large nuclear weapons (up to 1 gigaton) which could vaporize a 1 km asteroid and deflect a larger asteroid if you can do it less than ten years before the impact. A new use for nuclear weapons: hunting rogue asteroids
"These Earth-defending missiles, he said in an interview, could be launched years in advance or even on short warning, although a later defense increases the likelihood that large chunks of radioactive debris will rain onto the planet’s surface. Wie argues that, even in this case, smaller pieces would burn up in the atmosphere and strikes by the remaining rocks would be less damaging than a direct hit by an intact asteroid.
"The next logical step, Wie says, would be to test his plan by launching a missile and dummy warhead to strike an asteroid, at a cost of around $500 million, to see if his two-stage design could work. But so far this is just a concept."
See also Russia, U.S. Eye Team-up to Build Massive Nuke to Save Planet from an Asteroid
If you do it early, then most of those rocks would miss the Earth because they end up on different orbits than the original asteroid. Even if you do it quite late, like a few months before, you'd still get many of them miss the Earth.
But we'd need a longer timeline than just a few months to build this nuclear weapon, and fly it into space. And you'd want to test it surely first.
For more about this, see my answer to: Is the act of drilling into an Earth-bound asteroid to blow it up with a nuclear weapon (as seen in Armageddon) technically feasible? If so, how much would it cost and how many nukes would you
need?
So - I think evacuating the impact zone would be the best thing to do right now.
Try to build that rocket and bomb if you think it has any chance of being completed in time, you'd ask the experts. But it seems rather too short a period to get it designed, completed and launched.
So, we may seem a bit vulnerable. But remember this is a very unlikely one in a million probability.
So - I don't think that means that we should go all out and design a way of deflecting a 1 km asteroid right now.
If you've got enough budget available to do that, you could spend it more productively by investing in the project to map out all the Near Earth Asteroids by the late 2020s.
Or indeed, if really keen, willing to spend billions on a high budget project right away, you could map them all out sooner than that, maybe even by 2020.
Once we've got them all or nearly all mapped out, then we will be able to detect 1 km asteroids decades in advance, and so will be able to deflect them easily, so more or less get rid of the chance of this happening at far less cost and with less risky and gentler way of dealing with the issue.
There'd still be a chance of impactors from the Jupiter family comets, but they'd be more expensive to map out, and only 10% of the risk estimated, so start with the NEAs. Once those are all mapped out we will have better technology anyway and can look into possibilities of mapping all the Jupiter family objects down to sub 1 km radius as well.
For the effects of larger meteorites, see Environmental Damage from Asteroid and Comet Impacts. Also Solar System Fluff . From 1 to 10 km then they are large enough to be devastating world wide and the larger ones cause mass extinctions (but not extinction causing for humans with our technology, many creatures such as turtles survived the dinosaur extinctions, and we could also with technology).
World ending not going to happen, nothing that big for billions of years, probability about zero. For more about that, see Robert Walker's answer to What are the odds of a bigtime asteroid hitting the Earth a la Armageddon and Deep Impact?
See also my answers to:
And I've now written a booklet about giant impacts, available on kindle, or you can read it free on Science20.
Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
The main difference is the absence of gravity. This is interesting to researchers as it is the only way we can find out what the effect is of gravity on plants.
Experimenters were surprised to find ...
(more)The main difference is the absence of gravity. This is interesting to researchers as it is the only way we can find out what the effect is of gravity on plants.
Experimenters were surprised to find that plants can grow with roots downwards and leaves upwards without gravity, originally thought that gravity was needed for this.
For details: How Do Plants Grow In Zero Gravity?
http://www.esa.int/Our_Activitie...
Page on gravitationalandspacebiology.org
However there are many changes in how they function. Within 2 minutes of starting a centrifuge in the ISS, the cells in the plants change gene expression of numerous genes. So when checking effects of various levels of gravity - they have to preserve the cells within minutes of stopping the centrifuge - or actually in the centrifuge. http://www.mdpi.com/2223-7747/4/...
Plants are also sensitive to tiny amounts of gravity. For instance in an experiment with lentil seedlings, they responded to two thousandths of a g, and interpolation suggests they are sensitive to levels of less than a ten thousandth of a g. Page on researchgate.net
Which - just putting a personal view here - leads me to wonder - is there any potential in generating micro g as a way of solving plant growth problems in space? Instead of engineering plants so they can grow in zero g, why not work on ideas for very slowly rotating "spin drier" type centrifuges in space, say enough for a hundredth of a g?
A 1 meter diameter centrifuge rotating at 1 rotation per minute would generate a bit over a hundredth g, so why not grow all the plants in slow centrifuges like that? It wouldn't take much power to spin the centrifuges, especially in zero g, and the centrifuges themselves could be light weight, and no hazard at all at those speeds. And it could let us grow plants that can't currently grow under zero g.
(I think there is a good chance that in future we'll have artificial g for humans too. For instance, for all we know, even a hundredth g might make some difference for humans also - or there again, it might not help at all, we won't know answers until we do tests in space with humans staying long term in low g, or variable and temporary g conditions - also small centrifuges like that with variable g which you can set according to your personal spin tolerance and comfort levels could help health and add to comfort while eating, drinking, using a space toilet)
It's just a thought. (you can work out levels of artificial g using SpinCalc)
"Regardless of whether Revelation holds the secret of the time and place that history as we know it will end, it holds the view that how one lives matters greatly. That alone makes it of value for those who use it as an authority for their lives. Its vision may have been intended primarily to support Christians facing death for their first century faith, but it has served a much broader purpose for continuing Christianity. A book of comfort and devotion, it has called people to faithfulness over the years, while assuring them of the faithfulness of the God it proclaims."
(From Adam to Armageddon: A Survey of the Bible - page 180 )
"1. A view that Revelation must be understood in the context of its own time and the events symbolized in its pages as having already taken place.
"2. A view that only a portion of the revelations have occurred and that the work offers clues to the remaining portion of human history.
"3. A view that the book is best understood spiritually, and no attempt should be made to interpret it in the context of history.
"4. A view that the book is prophetic and its prophecies are yet to be completely fulfilled."
"In conclusion, I would like to emphasize that I have not given any definitiveproof of my statement that communication of an infinite quantity of information at a finite cost in energy is possible. To give a definitive proof, I would have to design in detail a transmitter and a receiver and demonstrate that they can do what I claim. I have not even tried to design the hardware for my communications system. All I have done is to show that a system performing according to my specifications is not in obvious contradiction with the known laws of physics and information theory. The universe that I have explored in a preliminary way in these lectures is very different from the universe which Steven Weinberg had in mind when he said, "The more the universe seems comprehensible, the more it also seems pointless." I have found a universe growing without limit in richness and complexity, a universe of life surviving forever and making itself known to its neighbors across unimaginable gulfs of space and time. Is Weinberg's universe or mine closer to the truth? One day, before long, we should know."
Time without end: physics and biology in an open universe
First, the Bible is only one of many holy scriptures in the world.
The Hindus have their scriptures too for instance which they regard as highly as Christians regard theirs. And there are many other...
(more)First, the Bible is only one of many holy scriptures in the world.
The Hindus have their scriptures too for instance which they regard as highly as Christians regard theirs. And there are many other traditions about what happens in the future.
For instance, as an example of another tradition, many Buddhists believe that the historical Buddha is the fourth of a series of a thousand Buddhas that arise from time to time, their teachings last for a few thousand years, then fade away and eventually after many thousands of years new teachings arise again.
So in those traditions, there are 996 Buddhas still to come in our world system, so got a fair while yet. This particular world system with its 1000 Buddhas is a part of larger and larger cycles ending with destruction indeed, and renewals, because nothing is permanent. But that's in the far distant future,maybe millions of years into the future. This is not a creed, not in Buddhism, but many Buddhists think this way just because that's how they were brought up (the numbers like 4 and 996 here vary depending on the tradition).
REVELATIONS ORIGINALLY WRITTEN AS A MESSAGE OF ENCOURAGEMENT AND HOPE FOR EARLY CHRISTIANS
Also, amongst Christians also, there's a wide range of views on how to interpret the Revelations (and related passages in the gospels), summarized in "From Adam to Armageddon: A Survey of the Bible", page 178 as
"1. A view that Revelation must be understood in the context of its own time and the events symbolized in its pages as having already taken place.
"2. A view that only a portion of the revelations have occurred and that the work offers clues to the remaining portion of human history.
"3. A view that the book is best understood spiritually, and no attempt should be made to interpret it in the context of history.
"4. A view that the book is prophetic and its prophecies are yet to be completely fulfilled."
The idea of a literal Armageddon is the fourth of those common ways of interpreting the Bible.
Revelations was added to the Bible at quite a late date. It was originally regarded as heretical by some of the early Christians. There are passages related to it, in the gospels, such as Matthew 24-25, which talk about events that it says would come to pass before the current generation passes away. Differences Between Matt 24, Mark 13, And Luke 21 - Gracethrufaith
Revelations originates as a message of hope to first century Christians who were being persecuted and many of them dying for their faith. As the author of "From Adam to Armageddon" says
"Regardless of whether Revelation holds the secret of the time and place that history as we know it will end, it holds the view that how one lives matters greatly. That alone makes it of value for those who use it as an authority for their lives. Its vision may have been intended primarily to support Christians facing death for their first century faith, but it has served a much broader purpose for continuing Christianity. A book of comfort and devotion, it has called people to faithfulness over the years, while assuring them of the faithfulness of the God it proclaims."
(From Adam to Armageddon: A Survey of the Bible - page 180 )
That's why the view 1, that the events described in Revelations have already taken place is also a reasonable view to take, or the view 3, that it is best understood spiritually, in both cases it has no future predictive power since it either describes events of the first century AD, or it is meant to be taken spiritually, as a message of hope with no intention of prophecy of actual events in the world. And many Christians do take it in those ways.
MORE THAN 242 FAILED PREDICTIONS OVER THE LAST 2000 YEARS
And there are many failed predictions going right back to the time the Revelations were written. See this list of predictions of the end of the world. Also this list of 242 predictions of the end of the world.
If you are thinking about the idea of the giant asteroid impacts, blood Moons etc etc - the bible doesn't give any dates anyway, and doesn't say anything about giant asteroids. At that time nobody knew they existed.
Nobody knew where meteorites came from. Ideas for their origins included strong winds, thunderstorms and volcanoes.
Nobody knew that meteorites came from space until Ernst Friedrick Chladu published his theory in 1794 "On the origin of the Mass of Iron Discovered by Pallas and Others Similar to It, and on Some Natural Phenomena Related to Them". That was also before the discovery of Ceres in 1801, so nobody knew the asteroids existed either. So there is no way the Bible could predict the motions of asteroids.
While on the other hand the methods of astronomy and science lead to accurate and successful predictions of many astronomical events each year. Predicted often accurately to the minute and even the second.
This is circulating on Facebook at present as a kind of spoof of all these doomsday scenarios.
LITERAL ARMAGEDDON - NO REASON TO THINK IT IS MORE LIKELY NOW THAN IN THE FIRST CENTURY
Yes, the idea that there will be a literal Armageddon is a respectable view that some Christians hold as a matter of belief (one of many). However, I think there is no reason, even if you hold that belief to think it is particularly any more likely to happen now than it was in the century after Jesus died.
Not when you have that perspective of looking at that list of 242 predictions of the end of the world . Which is on going - that list doesn't include several new ones predicted since 2012, which didn't happen, with several failed predictions this year already.
And perhaps it helps to have a bit of perspective to realize that for many other traditions, such ideas have no hold on their minds at all. If you were brought up as a Hindu or Jain or Buddhist or Taoist or Shintoist or in a Shamanistic tradition or with Ancestor worship etc etc then these ideas would mean nothing to you.
And that there is also a wide range of views amongst Christians, so it could be interesting to know that there is this variety of views.
WORLD ENDING EVENTUALLY
As to why the world would end eventually - I think that it will become uninhabitable about 500 million years from now, unless we find a way to do something about it, as the sun heats up on the way to becoming a red giant.
And if we find a way past that - well won't be us anyway probably evolved into something else long before or extinct and new species and civilizations arise. But if so - well eventually something will happen eventually. End of the universe perhaps. Or just that parts of it become uninhabitable. Either way nothing lasts forever. But that doesn't make the universe and our Earth any less precious.
And I think teachings like this are surely meant to inspire us to look at our lives and treat them as more precious and of greater value and inspire us to live better and more meaningful lives. If you end up getting scared and upset - for no reason, especially repeatedly, for one predicted but failed Armageddon after another - I'm sure that can't be Jesus or God's message,if that is indeed what this book is. Whatever it means.
(I'm writing this as a Buddhist answering a Christian question, but I've got a reasonable background in Christianity / theology as well, my parents were both ordained ministers and also missionaries as well, I grew up surrounded by shelves and shelves of books on theology belonging to my father - and read lots of theology as a child out of interest - so - just enough to suggest a few pointers towards other ways of looking at such questions, and felt it might be interesting to show that there are other perspectives on it.)
Impact from 3.8 billion years ago when large asteroid impacts were still common. 3D map of Mars
For big impacts on the Earth, see Impact of 23-mile-wide asteroid boiled Earth's oceans 3.26 billion years ago (and another link, and scientific paper)
The Aitken basin at the lunar South pole. It's believed to be over 3.8 billion years but the exact date is hard to pin down. Impact of an asteroid perhaps 170 km in diameter.
The Caloris basin on Mercury.
"The Buddhist monk Saichô (767-822) dared to abrogate the multitude of traditional small precepts in favour of the sole precept to «awaken to the fundamental one-mind of Mahayana. He established a ceremony for the taking of this precept and built a Mahayana ordination platform for the purpose on Mount Hiei near Kyoto. Since then, various branches of Japanese Buddhism have adhered to this. But Zen, following in the steps of its Chinese tradition, upheld an original structure of mutual complementarity of the monastic and secular communities and thus did not completely give way to lay Buddhism. Although this was a contradictory compromise of a kind that is again different from that of Southeast Asian Buddhism, one can say that the realization of this kind of contradiction bears potential for the future. However, it also proved to be a cause for confusion in monastic Japanese Buddhism."
the View of a Zen Monk from Japan
At first sight this seems impossible - the smallest stars are heavier than the heaviest planets, and how can something heavier orbit something that is lighter? A simple “No” then would be the obvious answer.
...
(more)At first sight this seems impossible - the smallest stars are heavier than the heaviest planets, and how can something heavier orbit something that is lighter? A simple “No” then would be the obvious answer.
But what if you have a very dense star and very large very low density planet? And if you interpret "orbiting it" as "having barycenter (the "center of mass of the system") within the planet"? That could give a way for a very dense and heavy star to orbit a common center which is within a lighter and much larger companion planet. That’s not so obviously impossible that we can dismiss it right away.
Also, could a star sometimes be lighter than a planet, is that possible at all? Can it happen naturally, for instance by some natural event stripping the outer envelope away from a star? Could we create a tiny star artificially, say the size of our Moon? If we could make our Moon into a star or replace it with a star of similar mass it could orbit Earth.
So, all this is something to look into.
I'll also describe a way that a heavier object can, in a way, "orbit" a smaller and lighter one - a way to get a large heavier star move in such a way that the barycenter of the system lies within a large but smaller low density planet. Can you figure out how, before I get to it? Tip: the question doesn’t say that the planet and star are the only things in the system.
Is there any chance of any of this happening in practice? Let's take a look.
Here is the largest exoplanet discovered
It's 1.991 times the radius of Jupiter (so roughly 140,000 km). And its mass is only 0.486 that of Jupiter. Heavier planets tend to be smaller. So, it probably won't help too much to make it heavier.
ABOUT BARYCENTERS
Strictly speaking our moon doesn't orbit the Earth. It orbits the barycenter of the Moon and Earth
In the case of the Earth and Moon, the barycenter is inside the Earth. With Pluto and Charon, the barycenter is outside Pluto. That's astronomers think of Pluto and Charon as a double planet (or double "dwarf planet") while our Moon is thought of as a moon.
So if we want the star to orbit the planet, the barycenter needs to be inside the planet. It is easy to have a star and planet orbiting a common center of mass that is outside the star, if the star is light and the planet is very heavy - but that would count only as co-orbiting a common center of mass, the star is not orbiting the planet.
Indeed our solar system's barycenter is outside the sun much of the time. But our sun couldn't be said to orbit any of its planets.
Motion of our solar system's barycenter relative to the sun. Image from wikipedia - see attribution here.
Our solar system's barycenter is often outside the sun, so strictly speaking the sun and planets orbit its barycenter.\
But in this article, we are looking for a star and planet with the barycenter inside the planet all the time. Is that possible?
FIRST TRY - WHITE DWARF
Now for our star, choose a cool dense star. This white dwarf is 1.05 times the mass of the sun but around the same diameter as our Earth. It is cool also, temperature only 3,000 K, so it's probably not going to blow away the envelope of our gas giant.
Artist’s conception of white dwarf star in orbit with pulsar PSR J2222-0137. Image Credit: B. Saxton (NRAO/AUI/NSF)
An Earth-size Diamond in the Sky: The Coolest Known White Dwarf Detected
Jupiter has about a thousandth the mass of the sun. So this one, less than two thousandth of the mass of its white dwarf star sun.
Radius of our star, same as the Earth 6,371 km. Call it 7,000 km.
Radius of our gas giant is around 140,000 km so it is roughly 20 times the radius of the star.
The barycenter is calculated as
where a is the distance between the two stars or planets and r1 is the distance of the first object to the barycenter. See Barycenter
So, the barycenter is less than 1/2000 of the distance from the center of the star towards the planet.
So that didn't work, we are way out, by a couple of orders of magnitude.
SECOND TRY - RED DWARF
What about red dwarfs? Though not quite so small as white dwarfs, they are also much lighter.
Scientists Discover Smallest Known Star
2MASS J0523-1403 is about as small as a red dwarf can be and still be a star. It has a radius of 0.086 times the radius of the sun or about 56,000 km. It's even cooler at 1826 C. Mass less than 0.08 of the mass of the sun or about
Our gas giant has a radius of 140,000 km or 2.5 times the radius of our star.
It's still not going to work, sadly. Barycenter will be 1/181 of the way from the center of the star to the center of our planet. But even if it orbits touching our star, it's surface is only 1/3.5 of the way. Closer than for our white dwarf - but still out by well over an order of magnitude.
We are so far out here, it doesn't seem too likely to work with conventional planets and stars.
You could try a brown dwarf as your "star" but I'm not sure they really count as stars.
THIRD TRY - REMOVE SOME OF THE MATERIAL FROM A PREVIOUSLY EXISTING STAR
I can think of some ways we could try to get this to work.
1. Start with a white dwarf - and somehow get it to lose nearly all of its mass. You end up with a small bright glowing ember of a star. No nuclear fusion but generally thought of as being still a "star".
2. Start with a red dwarf, remove most of its gas from it; its core would continue to fuse for some time.
In either of these scenarios, the star could for instance get most of its mass stripped away during a fast close flyby of a black hole. So such stars could perhaps exist naturally but are surely rare.
PROBLEMS WITH THIS SCENARIO
These stars could even be less massive than gas giants like Jupiter. So your planet could also be more massive than the star - if these stars do exist naturally anywhere in our galaxy or universe.
But then - if you remove most of the mass of a white dwarf, it is no longer compressed by gravity, so would expand.
And if you remove most of the gas from a red dwarf, again it would no longer be under so much pressure in its core, and so it would turn into a brown dwarf.
They'd continue as stars presumably for a while before this happens but it might not be for very long.
It depends how you do it. If you can remove most of the mass from a white dwarf, and still keep it hot - well essentially the result is just a very hot ball of gas. So that could count as a "star" until it cools down. After all white dwarfs are still called stars although they no longer have any fusion going on inside.
FOURTH TRY - ARTIFICIAL STARS
Or - you make the star artificially, as in 2010: Odyssey Two where the self replicating monoliths make Jupiter into a star. A star with the mass of Jupiter could easily "orbit" a larger planet of similar mass, with the barycenter inside the larger planet.
But then - could it continue to sustain nuclear fusion? Is that scenario really feasible or is it something that can only happen in science fiction?
You could turn a planet the size of Jupiter into a massive nuclear bomb, if you could get all its deuterium to fuse. If it happens to have a segregated high density deuterium layer (which Jupiter doesn't seem to have) and you then drop a large mass of plutonium into it, maybe it could fuse. See Necessary Conditions for the Initiation and Propagation of Nuclear Detonation Waves in Plane Atmospheres
But that's just an explosion. Soon over.
For more on this, see Turning Jupiter into a star (stack exchange)
TRYING TO SUSTAIN FUSION IN AN ARTIFICIAL OR UNUSUALLY FORMED STAR
To sustain fusion you need a way of keeping the star compressed. Which - short of some mega technology to physically contain it, would seem to require adding mass.
Could you drop slow moving heavy dark matter particles into your miniature proto star, so many that you get a "dark star"? (If such particles exist) So supplying extra gravity to contain it for fusion?
(Here I don't mean the hypothetical Dark star of the early universe with neutralino heating, but using heavy slow moving dark matter).
Or, seed it with numerous mini black holes, and the gravity of the black holes is enough for it to trigger fusion, that is before it gets swallowed up by the black holes?
But all those ideas would of course also shift the system's barycenter back towards the star. You could try doing the same to the planet to help shift it back again. They might also compress the star or planet enough to make a difference
I think this is too hypothetical to follow much further since we haven't yet detected slow moving dark matter, and don't know what properties the dark matter might or might not have or if it is slow enough moving to get caught in the gravity field of a planet or star.
FIFTH TRY - JUST HEAT UP A MOON OR PLANET UNTIL IT REACHES THE TEMPERATURE OF THE SURFACE OF A STAR
This could be through megatechnology. Or maybe at some point a small planetoid or moon orbits very close to the star then through a sequence of gravitational encounters with other planets and moons, it gets flung into a more distant orbit around a planet far from its star while it is still glowing hot.
If you heated our Moon to thousands of degrees centigrade, it would shine like a second sun in our sky until it cooled down.
SIXTH TRY - ADD A COUNTER BALANCING STAR
This is another idea. Have a binary system of two equal mass stars orbiting a common center. Put a planet in that central position.
Now you have not just one star, but two stars orbiting your planet.
The main problem now is to keep it stable. It's not going to be easy to keep your planet in that one spot. But if it is a large planet, and the two stars are tiny, that doesn't matter much, so long as it stays approximately in the right place.
So - I suggest, two approximately solar mass, Earth sized cool stars like this:
The Coolest Known White Dwarf Detected (artist's impression showing the white dwarf along with the pulsar in the same system)
And in between, a large gas giant like this:
Now set the two stars orbiting around their common center.
Now, set your planet on a corkscrew orbit between the two stars. Its center of mass travels back and forth on a spiral path from one star to the other and back again, over and over, a newly discovered type of orbit.
Corkscrew planets spiral back and forth between two stars
With such a large planet, twice the diameter of Jupiter, and both stars tiny, the size of Earth, if you chose the separation well, this corkscrew path I think has a chance of keeping the midpoint of the two stars inside the planet at all times.
His paper is here: Stable Conic-Helical Orbits of Planets around Binary Stars: Analytical Results. He uses for illustration Kepler-16 which has two stars with mass ration of 1 to 3. The paper is behind a paywall for me, so I'm not sure of the details of what range of stellar mass ratios it works for, or the dimensions of the orbit.
Whether a planet can ever get into such an orbit, and whether such a system actually exists anywhere in our galaxy or universe is another matter. I leave that to "future research" :).
SO ANSWER IS?
Probably no, for a single star. But if you count a moon, heated to the temperature of a star, as a short lived "star" then perhaps yes.
If anyone has any other cool ideas about how you could do it, either artificially or in our universe through some rare combination of events, do say in the comments.
You might also like my answer to: Is it possible to have a moon so reflective that when it reflects the sun, it will be like daylight? Is there a set of circumstances that can result in this phenomenon? What if we are on the moon, orbiting a nearby, larger, super reflective planet?
I've just written this up for my Science20 blog as
Could A Star Orbit A Planet? - Just For Fun
You can now get this as a kindle book along with many other answers on a similar vein, as part of Simple Questions in Astronomy - Surprising Answers
"Most people, when they think about exploring the galaxy, think about sending out human colonies. It's natural to think we would explore it just as we do the Earth, it's the only way we know. To send machines instead of humans, especially machines that can replicate, may seem frightening. But - I'd argue, humans colonies are by far the most scary way we could explore the galaxy. It might well be a case of "look out galaxy (and Earth), the monsters are coming" :).
So what can we do? What is a responsible way to explore our galaxy, with current understanding of science, biology, and society, and could this explain why our galaxy is not filled right to the brim already with extra terrestrials?
After explaining the problem in detail, I'll draft out a possible way to do safe self replication with robots, but it's not a method that could be used ethically with humans. Could there be other solutions, and if so, could those also explain why the galaxy is not filled with extraterrestrials?"
See my Self Replicating Robots - Safer For Galaxy (and Earth) Than Human Colonists - Is This Why ETs Didn't Colonize Earth?
One of the Viking spacecraft before it was put into the oven for heat sterilization.
This is an understandable misreading of an unfamiliar culture by the Chinese . The Tibetans, like the Indians (and unlike the Chinese) have a tradition of leaving human bodies out to be eaten by vu...
(more)This is an understandable misreading of an unfamiliar culture by the Chinese . The Tibetans, like the Indians (and unlike the Chinese) have a tradition of leaving human bodies out to be eaten by vultures. And they hack the bodies to pieces. And in some cases remove the skin, which again Indian yogins do too, or at least did in the past, not sure if they still do.
But this is for dead people, after they've died naturally, and done as a ritual. Like our customs of burying dead people or burning them in a cemetery. It helps them to pass on to the next life, to leave their previous life behind. It's also an act of generosity towards the vultures.
It’s like claiming that here in the UK we bury people alive or burn them to ashes alive in crematoria. If all you knew was sky burial and you saw people lowering a coffin into a grave, you might well think we bury people alive. But of course we don’t and it’s the traditional way we treat dead bodies. For us, this is a mark of respect just as sky burial was a mark of respect, and indeed the second most prestigious type of funeral, for some Tibetans. The most prestigious funeral of all in old Tibet and still sometimes used by the Tibetans in exile was a slow cremation designed to leave unburned bones which is used only for highly respected spiritual teachers with their bones kept as relics.
If that’s not it, then it is just fake news.
IN DETAIL
In Tibet then - well the very highest status burial is cremation - used only for highly respected teachers. Their bodies are burnt in a low temperature fire to preserve the bones as relics.
Apart from that, the highest status burial is "sky burial" in many parts (remember Tibet is a diverse country with many different local customs).
The body is hacked up after death and then left out for vultures to eat. This seems gruesome to Westerners - but in the cultural context, this both helps the individual to move on to their next life - and also it is generosity offering their bodies to the vultures.
It was the most expensive form of burial in Tibet. So the people who get these sky burials would be the wealthiest in the community.
Remember the Chinese wouldn't be able to speak Tibetan probably at the time, and they wouldn't understand the ceremony as there is no tradition like this in China AFAIK. The Chinese traditions of Buddhism have developed separately from the various Indian and Tibetan traditions for nearly 2000 years now with little contact between the two, and the Tibetans are in the lineage of the Indian traditions.
So I think the most likely explanation is that some Chinese saw Tibetans hacking a body to pieces in a ceremony, and, naturally enough, jumped to the conclusion that this was a live sacrifice, not realizing that what they were witnessing was a "sky burial".
The ancient pre-Buddhist religions apparently did originally involve animal and even human sacrifice. This has gone into the iconography of Tibetan Buddhism with gruesome images.
I've also read that the ancient animal sacrifices were turned into cakes offered on the shrine ("torma"). See The Handbook of Tibetan Buddhist Symbols
There is another historical background also, the idea of meditating in charnel grounds. There - this is something done in India, and in Tibet also - a charnel ground is a place where dead bodies are disposed of, common in both India and Tibet, where the bodies are left exposed to view for birds such as vultures to eat.
So - much of the iconography is to do with this sky burial. Yogins would make cups out of skull caps. Similarly to the way skulls were often represented in Western paintings in the past.
Aelbert Jansz van der Schoor Vanitas Still Life (Skulls on a Table) 1660 Copyright Rijksmuseum Amsterdam
It's a similar idea - reminds us of impermanence and death, and that this life is not all that there is, and that we might die at any time.
That may seem a gloomy thing to us; many modern people don't like being reminded of death.
But in Buddhism, as with Christianity in these early paintings - it is a positive and life affirming message. Encourages us to use this life in a positive way and to value what we have, by being alive, and able to listen to the teachings and practice the path.
So in the same way - some yogins in Tibet (depending on the practices they were doing I imagine) would use human skull caps as drinking bowls in their rituals, and also wear robes made of skin that they took from bodies in charnel grounds, as a constant reminder of death and impermanence. Same tradition also from India.
You also have the idea in some of the practices of offering your own body, in this lifetime, as a sacrifice.
So the human sacrifices of the past have been turned into symbolic sacrifices of the yogin himself or herself. I'm not sure how that works exactly - but in general terms anyway - it is to do with offering oneself with all ones imperfections to the path - not to any external deity, but to the process of realization and understanding and opening out to others.
So the ancient pre-Buddhist (and pre-Bohn) shamanistic ideas of sacrifice are transformed into this symbolic idea of opening yourself out to the path. It's shown with particularly vivid images using the iconography of death, destruction, and general mayhem which is easily misunderstood if you don't have the background explained to you.
Basically it is to do with understanding impermanence, that things change, and that you can't fix things permanently.
You can sometimes find happiness in your physical circumstances for long periods of time, and that's wonderful when it happens. But none of us can build a permanent beautiful home in Samsara by our own efforts that will be ours for all time.
So the idea of all these practices is as a way to recognize that the only realistic thing to do in the long term is to recognize this. And the Buddha taught a way to work with this, which involves, amongst other things, opening out to others and becoming more aware and in tune with the situations around us.
Which can then lead us to be able to relate to the many changes that are inevitable. So that, instead of seeing them as purely destructive, destroying all our attempts at fixing our present situation and creating stability, they can be something that is part of the entire process we are also working with ourselves
I don't know if these are garments made of human skin. Perhaps they are made of animal skin or fabric. But if so - that's the explanation and so of course the images would be added later, nobody has images like that on their bodies while alive.
JP Aerospace plan to build airships that set off at a level higher than the highest flying balloon ever - huge airships made of such light materials that they couldn't be inflated at ground level.
This is the highest flying balloon ever at 56 km, on the edge of space
ISAS | BALLOONS:Research on Balloons to Float Over 50km Altitude / Special Feature
I don't know the talk, but it is certainly possible, in theory at least, to "drive into orbit", for instance, if you use a magnetically elevated track.
This is the idea of Startram
It's an idea for a maglev acceleration of humans to orbital velocities. It would launch from 0 to 8 km/ second over at least 1000 kms
The track is suspended by magnetic levitation which is easily strong enough to hold it up, they say. It uses only present day materials.
To find out more, see Startram - for details Maglev Launch: Ultra Low Cost Ultra/High Volume Access to Space for Cargo and Humans
You could also use similar technology to just fire things out of a gun, a "rail gun" which could be electrically powered - but that needs too much acceleration to be practical for humans.
Would work for the likes of fuel or water and has been studied. The authors of the Star Tram proposal suggest that you'd begin with much smaller scale 1 kilometer maglevs built into the side of a mountain, for sending fuel and water to orbit.
For a 1 km gun, which you could quite possibly build as a tunnel through a mountain, to accelerate to 8 km / s to get into LEO, then that's 6,500 g. Which the sorts of electronics designed for ballistic missiles could cope with, so you could send rockets into space with fuel or water in that way using electricity.
That could be a game changer technology even if you don't ever manage to send humans into orbit in the same way. To have low cost consumables in low Earth orbit supplied from Earth, fuel and water.
SPACE ELEVATOR
If you have a space elevator, which we may have in the future, can just drive into space along the elevator using power supplied from a power plant at the foot of the elevator. If you could build a structure that goes all the way into orbit, you can do that.
However, the space elevator which requires materials that seem possible in theory but don't exist yet (like flawless long carbon nanotubes etc). Some think we may have such materials in the near future, even perhaps, within a decade or two.
There are many other issues with the space elevator idea and a whole community of enthusiasts and engineers exploring the ideas, with a 2 millin dollar Google X-prize for certain key developments along the way and regular competitions where the competitors attempt to better each other at various challenges such as beaming power to the climber, or stronger materials for the elevator etc. See The Spaceward Foundation
Here is a recent BBC story about the idea, which incidentally also mentions Elon Musk's ideas on the subject.
Should we give up on the dream of space elevators?
SUPPLYING POWER FROM THE GROUND TO THE RISING SPACECRAFT E.G. WITH LASERS
You can also use lasers to send something into orbit, or other ways of supplying power from the ground.
IDEAS THAT USE ELECTRICITY TO REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF FUEL NEEDED
In theory an ion thruster would also work, not pure electricity, but about a tenth of the amount of fuel. But so far they use small amounts of fuel and are low thrust and nobody knows of any way to propel hundreds of kilograms of fuel per second using an ion thruster.
If you had any way to directly convert matter to energy, then a photon thruster would be the best solution, wouldn't use much mass, just lots of power. But we don't know of any way to do that.
AIRSHIPS TO ORBIT - COMBINING ELECTRICAL PROPULSION WITH A LIFTING GAS
There's also use of hydrogen and helium balloons however. Lift from Earth surface to a platform in the stratosphere.
Change to much larger balloons, kilometer scale, which gradually accelerate to orbit using ion thrusters. This idea does use some reaction mass, but mainly uses hydrogen or helium as a lifting gas to get to orbit, is electrically powered and gets you all the way to orbit with very little power and only a tiny amount of reaction mass, which is used to slowly accelerate over a period of several days in the near vacuum conditions well above what we normally think of as the atmosphere.
The thing is that a near vacuum of hydrogen or helium can still float in another near vacuum of a heavier gas such as nitrogen (say). Even if there are only a few atoms per cubic centimeter, it would still give you a lifting force.
Even in a near vacuum, a tiny fraction of a percent of one atmosphere, hydrogen or helium still works as a lifting gas. Trap a region of hydrogen or helium inside huge kilometer scale balloons - and it will still supply lift and lift you further and further up into the atmosphere. Until the air is so thin, you can acelerate to faster than the local speed of sound with no ill effects. One of the early Echo satellite balloons survived a ballistic hops in the very high atmosphere at well over the speed of sound without getting destroyed (not during the hop, only at the end of it), so it doesn't seem that travel faster than the speed of sound at such heights would destroy the balloon, which is the main criticism usually made of their idea. The director of the project doesn't see that as their main challenge.
This idea is being explored by JP Aerospace who plan to make ordinary airships that would rise to orbital platforms at 200,000 feet - so that's 60 km, in the mesosphere - above the stratosphere, near vacuum conditions. Then passengers would transfer to the larger orbital airships to go into orbit.
REDUCING REACTION MASS BY AIR BREATHING
Also, this is not electricity, but just to say, in response to some who think that conventional rocketry is the only game in town - that you can also reduce the reaction mass hugely by using air breathing spacecraft such as Skylon, which is under active development in the UK with the very innovative engine passing all the tests so far. If it continues to fulfill the promise it has shown so far, it may see flight in the 2020s. It's being supported to the tune of many millions of pounds on going research in the UK.
And there are several other ideas being pursued.
In short, SpaceX and other conventional rocket companies are pursuing just one of many ideas being investigated.
They are at the head of the game at present of course, the only way we can get into orbit is through chemical rockets. But looking somewhat further into the future, like a few decades, there are other possible technologies on the horizon, so room for some surprises to come in the future.
For more on this, with other examples of some of the ideas under investigation or suggested in the past, see Projects To Get To Space As Easily As We Cross Oceans - A Million Flights A Year Perhaps - Will We Be Ready?
WHY THERE IS NOTHING TO PUSH AGAINST ACCORDING TO CURRENT UNDERSTANDING
I see the question has just been edited so answering the new version.
No you can't "push against gravity" like you can with water or air Not with present day understanding anyway. The idea of a medium in between the planets, the "ether" was disproved by the Michelson–Morley experiment , This shows there is no "aether" for light to move through, so nothing to push against.
Then the development of special relativity, and then general relativity made the situation even clearer. Whether or not those are final theories is another matter, we know that they are incomplete. But there is no support at all at present for any kind of medium like water or air that you could push against or use for support like you could for a boat or a plane. There could be - back in the nineteenth century what you say would seem quite plausible, but according to modern physics, and many experiments like this, there is not.
What they did is to compare the speed of light in two directions at right angles to each other, and they saw no difference at all. This proved that there is no medium that light is moving through, because if there was, the speed would vary depending on the direction Earth is moving relative to the medium.
The alternatives to rockets work by using the air for propulsion, or by using power supplied from below and propulsion with very high speed exhaust, or by building a physical track most of the way into space and maglev acceleration along it. For that matter you can also fire matter into space using a very powerful gun - then there is no need for propulsion at all once it leaves the nozzle except minor adjustments to get into orbit, you have plenty of delta v if you leave with enough speed and can "punch your way" through the atmosphere, or you exit the nozzle well above the thickness of the Earth's atmosphere. That's basically the idea behind maglev.
For a situation that makes this clear, if you want to leave the surface of the Moon, as there is no atmosphere, the only possibilities there are a rocket motor (which can be far smaller because of the Moon's lower gravity), or maglev - basically the gun + nozzle idea - or physically building a track into orbit, as a space elevator, which is actually practical for the Moon with present day materials but very expensive. Or some combination of those. You can't get into orbit by "pushing against gravity".
That's with present day science.
For the future, there's the idea of the EM Drive, which is a bit like what you are talking about. In the probably unlikely event that it turned out to work and also turned out to be able to produce huge levels of thrust, it could do what you want. I don't think it is necessarily nonsense. Yes it defies conservation of energy and momentum - but any radically new idea is going to do that until you figure out how it works, e.g. before the neutrino was discovered, beta decay defied conservation of both momentum and energy. But it would need radically new ideas to understand it which we don't have yet, I don't find Shawyer's explanations credible, I think few do, but the experimental data is intriguing enough so that it is absolutely necessary I think that someone follows it up just in case there is something to it, whatever it is (if we'd dismissed anomalous data we'd never have discovered the neutrino). See Suggestion: The EM Drive Is Getting The Appropriate Level Of Attention From The Science Community
And also Mach effect thrusters: Woodward effect. Similarly very much a minority view but I'm glad someone is exploring the idea just in case.
Or spacewarp if that was possible from a planetary surface, and without damaging the planet in the process, which seems a bit unlikely?? Maybe if it can be very controlled somehow. Or teleportation as in Star Trek - turn something into information based on photons, beam that up and reconstitute that - but according to ideas at present anyway the amount of energy needed would be literally astronomical, and it involves basically destroying the object right down to its atoms and reconstructing it so you still need material in space to reconstruct it from.
Or the idea of portals, doors you just walk through and find yourself somewhere else. We don't have any ideas of experiments to do with that at present.
Those are all far future science fiction speculations at present.
Don't feed the Troll
Tolkein's image of trolls turned to stone by sunlight - they can't stand sunlight and would probably prefer darkness to changing a light bulb.
Incidentally, in this encounter, Gandalf actually trolls the trolls :). He gets them arguing over how to cook the hobbits until the sun rises and they turn to stone.
There are some Christians think you can settle such things by using quotes from the Bible and find passages that show reincarnation is not possible. But other Christians think that the Bible though...
(more)There are some Christians think you can settle such things by using quotes from the Bible and find passages that show reincarnation is not possible. But other Christians think that the Bible though it has inspiration in it is also work of human hands too, and have a more flexible approach to it.
The Bible also is often inconsistent with itself. E.g. the four accounts in the gospels are not consistent with each other. So you can ask again, "which is right". Most Christians don't think that is an issue.
And there are esoteric Christian movements that have ideas of reincarnation that are central to them, so they would be familiar with all the passages in the Bible used by those who say reincarnation is incompatible.
So I think you can't say anything here for "all Christians" but have to say "which particular group of Christians".
Theosophists particularly adopt their own version of reincarnation Theosophical Society in America, and Reincarnation - the evidence, also wikipedia article on Esoteric Christianity. One of their distinctive ideas is that a human being can only be reincarnated as another human being in the future.
A bit more on proofs from the scriptures: Some Christians think every word of the scriptures is divinely inspired. Some think even that particular translation into English is inspired, there are some who think that the King James bible translation is divinely inspired The King James Bible Is Inspired. So then you'd typically settle a question like this using quotes from the Bible.
Others say that there was scope for mistakes, the authors were only human, and point to e.g. discrepancies in the Bible (e.g. inconsistent descriptions of the same events depending on which gospel you read, and the New Testament contradicting passages in the Old Testament etc) and also say that to some extent what we have is a matter of editorial decision by later compilers - e.g. that there were many books left out of the "final edition" of the Bible, as well as a few inspiring passages and stories added to the text many centuries after Jesus. For instance the story of Jesus and the woman taken in adultery, just about everyone agrees is a much later addition to St John's gospel. But that doesn't stop it from being inspiring and a powerful Christian message.
So it would depend on your tradition of Christianity, and its interpretation of the Bible and what exactly it treats as divinely inspired and not capable of being questioned (if you belong to a tradition that says certain things can't be questioned) whether reincarnation is consistent or not.
As a Buddhist myself, though brought up as a Christian, I'm probably not the right person to go into that any more, into detailed for and against scriptural and other theological arguments.
But perhaps I can say a bit more, helpfully, about ideas of reincarnation.
There are many ideas about reincarnation - it is not a single theory or concept. The Theosophical ideas are very different from Hindu ideas, and those in turn are very different from Buddhist ideas.
And Jains are very different again. I think they are the only ones that talk extensively about the possibility of reincarnation as plants, and they say also that a tree can become enlightened apparently - and try to avoid harm to plants as far as possible not just to insects, animals and humans - though some Hindu texts go into this as well apparently, and also some Japanese Buddhists touch on that possibility. For more details on the Jains, also some Hindu and Buddhist traditions and ideas of reincarnation as plants, and the extent to which they extend ideas of non harming to plants, see Plants as Persons
For most Buddhists at least, you can only be reincarnated as animals, of the creatures we know. For theosophists you can only be reincarnated as human.
Within Buddhism (which I know most about), there's a wide range of ideas also.
For instance, Tibetans think you take rebirth after a time of some weeks spent in the Bardo, intermediate state. And I think they are the only ones that actually sometimes identify previous rebirths. Buddha actually warned that it can be unproductive to try to find out who or what you were in a previous life. So many Buddhists don't think it is worth trying to find out. But in Tibet then in cases of some noted teachers then rebirths are identified.
Therevadhan Buddhists, e.g. from Sri Lanka think you take rebirth right away immediately after your previous death.
In Japan, then the Zen Buddhists believe in reincarnation in a general way but don't put much emphasis on it at all, don't have elaborate ideas and theories about how it happens.
Generally you just need an open mind about what happens when you die in Buddhism, there is no creed, like you have to believe this or that idea about reincarnation to be a Buddhist. Instead if you follow the path of the Buddha - then all your beliefs are open to question and look at.
Since other answers here seem to be based on Western ideas of reincarnation that often have little resemblance to the ideas as understood in the East, worth mentioning some misconceptions about rebirth - at least as understood in Buddhism - and much of this is also true of other Eastern religions.
1. You don't expect to remember your previous life. After all I don't remember anything from my very early childhood and most don't. Why expect to remember a previous life - which also has a previous death since then, loss of that previous body, rebirth from a foetus in this life? After all those experiences, you wouldn't expect to remember anything. People lose their past memories sometimes even just because of accidents. It's rather astonishing that some seem to remember previous lives.
Traditionally in Tibet for instance they say for the teachers whose reincarnations are recognized - that in their next rebirth as young children, they often recognize implements they used (e.g. a bell) from a previous life - and that can be part of the method used to find them. But that is only when they are young, they forget this as they grow older.
Most don't remember anything at all and I think right to be skeptical about claims of some people to remember past lives in elaborate detail - perhaps it can happen but humans can also get false memories rather easily that seem to you as if they actually happened in the past.
2. There is no idea that your rebirth will be in some sense the same person with the same likes and attitudes and views. How much of your personality and likes and beliefs and attitude to life do you share with the young child of 2, or the old person of 100 if you live that long? Even in this life, one can have many changes. Even as an adult. Some things interest me now that were of zero interest to me, say, forty years ago, and vice versa.
Famous examples, Dalai Lamas are very different in personality. Current DL is scholarly, thorough understanding of the Tibetan Buddhist scriptures and commentaries as well as more esoteric teachings in all four of the main Tibetan Buddhist schools.
Previous DLs include the famous sixth, a renowned poet who renounced his monks robes (which you can do) and wrote famous (in Tibet) love poems. His poetry is still loved by Tibetans today.
I've never heard of the current Dalai Lama writing poetry - if he does - it's not what he is noted for. (Some Tibetan Lamas are noted for their poetry, even writing in English, Trungpa Rinpoche wrote many poems in English but the Dalai Lama - I don't think that is his thing particularly).
3. Not at all the idea that it's the same atoms. Just continuity of awareness. Even in this life your body probably has very few actual atoms in common with that 2 year old child.
4. If you experience good fortune now, it doesn't mean you are better than someone who is having a bad time. Or even someone who was a mass murderer earlier in this lifetime.
Just matters where you are at now. As an example, the sutras have an example of a serial killer who became a disciple of the Buddha, regretted his past actions and became enlightened in that very lifetime as an example of how you can turn your life around. Many other examples.
So people who suffer - they did awful things in the past. But so did I, over countless past lives. So anything like that is something I'll experience too, if not in this life, in a future life, until I reach enlightenment.
But as well as that, in Buddhist teaching, is more like a vulnerability - through the negative past actions my body is vulnerable to pain and suffering. We can see that all humans are similarly vulnerable even if some are currently experiencing more fortune than others. And the ultimate cause of this, it's taught, is confusion and ignorance, not evil.
An example of how karma works given by a great contemporary Buddhist scholar Prayudh Payutto is that if you walk up a flight of stairs - you can no longer touch the ground, you may be out of breath, and you have a better view. All of those and many more things follow from your decision to climb the stairs.
It doesn't make you any less empathic to recognize that your actions in this world have consequences for yourself and others, and is the same over previous lives. If anything it makes you feel more in common with others, even from very different backgrounds. Their lives are all examples of situations I've been in in my own past and future lives, and vice versa.
5. The argument about numbers of humans is just like arguing that human population of New York increases in daytime and asking where they come from. Just means there is more to the universe than just humans. In Buddhist teaching, you could be animals in past lives but also many other kinds of beings, maybe living in another world system also, as we'd think of it, around another star. Or beings we don't know exist right here.
6. It's an ancient scholarly religion, not a superstition. Much study and thought and debate.
This is one of the oldest Buddhist universities, from fifth century AD. It was destroyed in the twelfth century by Muslim invaders
Which is also the reason India stopped being a Buddhist country - the Buddhist teachings by then had spread throughout the Eastern world with this one of the great Buddhist centers of learning.
Though not so well known in the West, Nalanda university is as famous in Buddhism and as much a center of learning as Plato's academy or the great library of Alexandria.
Scholarship goes back to long before then
Here is one of the early Buddhist philosophers in the Indian traditions
Here is one of several early scholar monks in the Chinese tradition
Lokaksema (Buddhist monk)
This continues to this day,
Walpola Rahula, a recent noted Sri Lankan Buddhist scholar in the Therevadhan Buddhist traditions.
And this is the Dalai Lama taking the exams for his Geshe degree - glimpses of old Tibet.
This degree requires many years of advanced study in Buddhist topics and he passed with flying colours astounding his examiners with his brilliance, so it is said.
I don't think many Westerners realize that our current Dalai Lama is considered by the Tibetan Buddhists to be especially erudite in his understanding of Tibetan Buddhism. He is very modest about it, you'd never know from his interviews on video etc.
7. Are many reasons for thinking reincarnation is likely. For me, it made a lot more sense of many things that I found very hard to accept and understand as a Christian such as the "problem of evil".
In Buddhism that's just result of past confusion like when you have a car crash through a poor decision. Doesn't mean you are intrinsically a bad person.
That makes a lot more sense to me than Christian ideas that it's the doings of an all powerful God acting in ways mysterious to us that has this effect that some people's lives are a misery and others very happy. I could never make a lot of sense of that as a Christian.
But I can accept that for Christians the idea that it is God who is responsible for this, for creating a world like this with all its imperfections and challenges, gives meaning to their lives especially when combined with ideas of redemption. So would never say they are wrong here. And Christian thinkers think long and hard about the "problem of evil" and have written many profound works about it.
It is just that Buddhism is a better fit for me and the path I chose to follow. And for us, it is not a problem of evil, but a problem of confusion :). And trying to find our way out of confusion and ignorance and short term thinking and such like.
8,, So, none of this is any reason for Christians to believe in reincarnation.
Just saying, a large part of the world's population does believe in reincarnation. But there are many others with other belief systems.
Is reasonably obvious that ones religion and belief system largely depends on where you were born and your culture. If you are brought up in a particular culture, and never encounter any other religion or culture, most people will share the religion and belief systems of that culture. It's very unlikely that you'd come to new ideas or start a new religion.
9, Extremist sects and other problems don't show that a religion is itself responsible.
There are extremist sects in all religions and also in non religious belief systems such as communism. For instance even in Christianity you have various groups involved in Christian terrorism which most Christians would say are not following the genuine path of Jesus.
On the whole, we are lucky to live in a world where all the main religions are ethical in their core teachings, emphasizing respect for others, tolerance, compassion, love, generosity, helping the disadvantaged etc.
That's true for instance of Christianity, Judaism, Islam, Hinduism, Jains, Buddhism, Taoism, Shintoism, and many of the religions based on ancestor worship and Shamanistic religions. (Not trying to give a comprehensive list here).
(for more on this see comment)
9. They all deserve respect I think, as much as Christianity does.
Respect which doesn't mean at all that one should try to mush the various religions together into a single system of thought.
For some, Christianity is the path and it works fine for them without reincarnation. Since there is no way to prove or disprove this why feel that it needs to be changed?
For others, then they believe in reincarnation while Christian, again what is the problem there?
It's not as if we can prove reincarnation, or Christian ideas of a life everlasting after death, or prove existence of the ancestors for ancestor worship etc etc. Nor can we prove that when you die that's the end of everything either. Scientists have far too little understanding of what mind is to attempt to prove far reaching things like that.
And - they may all be giving us insights, in different ways, into the human situation. But many of them are incompatible belief systems for people with our need to put things into tidy categories. So it works best, for most, to stay within one system while learning from others.
Some people with very flexible minds can see to the essence as it were and have no trouble practicing simultaneously in two different systems that to others seem incompatible.
See also Robert Walker's answer to Are some Buddhists also Christians?
But for many it helps to find your particular path which may well be within one or other of these great belief systems. Others find a path in things that to many seem mundane, e.g. you may find all the answers and path you need as a gardener or some such.
Gaetano Crocco who first suggested the idea of a very short opposition class human mission to Mars using flybys of Mars and Venus in 1956. Crocco Grand Tour See also wikipedia entry: Gaetano Crocco Grand Tour. A similar idea is the basis for the Inspiration Mars proposal.
"Short duration opposition class trajectories have largely been dismissed as a viable alternative for human mission to Mars due to concerns over the increased propulsive requirements, short destination durations, and architecture extensibility. However, a more comprehensive analysis indicates that the relative penalties associated with opposition concepts may not be as severe as originally anticipated. Furthermore, short-stay missions could represent a stepping-stone to long-duration missions, reducing overall campaign risk and allowing for a more progressive build-up of capabilities. The investigation of propulsive requirements, element delivery, and mission risk provides a deeper understanding of the advantages and trade-offs associated with opposition trajectories, presenting new arguments towards their viability as part of a larger exploration campaign."
Trades Between Opposition and Conjunction Class Trajectories for Early Human Missions to Mars
In detail, in section 6, (of Earth--Mars Transfers with Ballistic Capture), they find that ballistic transfer is better than Hohmann transfer for orbits down to a periapsis radius of a little under 30,000 km. That's twice the distance of Deimos.
For the actual savings summarized in table 3, they say saving is about 25% if you want to transfer to an orbit that has closest point to Mars of 200,000 km (about ten times further away than Deimos) of course rare that you want to do that.
The news stories have summarized this as saying that the ballistic transfer gives a 25% saving over Hohmann, but for a close orbit, the Hohmann gives a saving over ballistic.
"Nevertheless, as predicted by the secular equations, in 1% of the cases, the eccentricity of Mercury increases considerably. In many cases, this deformation of the orbit of Mercury then leads to a collision with Venus, or with the Sun in less than 5 Ga, while the orbit of the Earth remained little affected. However, for one of these orbits, the increase in the eccentricity of Mercury is followed by an increase in the eccentricity of Mars, and a complete internal destabilisation of the inner Solar System (Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars) in about 3.4 Gyr. Out of 201 additional cases studied in the vicinity of this destabilisation at about 3.4 Gyr, 5 ended by an ejection of Mars out of the Solar System. Others lead to collisions between the planets, or between a planet and the Sun in less than 100 million years. One case resulted in a collision between Mercury and Earth, 29 cases in a collision between Mars and the Earth and 18 in a collision between Venus and the Earth (Laskar and Gastineau, 2009)."
That's from the scholarpedia entry maintained by Jacques Laskar one of the authors of several of these studies. Stability of the solar system (scholarpedia)
Well I don't think you get much more die hard Tolkien fan than Christopher Tolkien.
(more)Invited to meet Peter Jackson, the Tolkien family preferred not to. Why? "They eviscerated the book by making it a...
Well I don't think you get much more die hard Tolkien fan than Christopher Tolkien.
Invited to meet Peter Jackson, the Tolkien family preferred not to. Why? "They eviscerated the book by making it an action movie for young people aged 15 to 25," Christopher says regretfully. "And it seems that The Hobbit will be the same kind of film."
This divorce has been systematically driven by the logic of Hollywood. "Tolkien has become a monster, devoured by his own popularity and absorbed into the absurdity of our time," Christopher Tolkien observes sadly. "The chasm between the beauty and seriousness of the work, and what it has become, has overwhelmed me. The commercialization has reduced the aesthetic and philosophical impact of the creation to nothing. There is only one solution for me: to turn my head away."
My Father's "Eviscerated" Work - Son Of Hobbit Scribe J.R.R. Tolkien Finally Speaks Out
There he's talking about all the films, the LOR as well as the Hobbit.
I'm not sure if this question is about the LOR trilogy or the Hobbit trilogy.
I'm keen on the novels myself also, but haven't yet managed to watch one of the movies all the way through. Though - that is watching them at home where I can skip bits that don't interest me - and so I do just that.
With the LOR - well the sets were good, some of the acting was good - but I was disappointed that they left out the best bits (for me) and seem to have lost the plot as regards what I see as the core messages.
As Christopher Tolkein said - the beauty, and seriousness, I'd say also, sense of depth and history and unexpected sidelights. Also - light hearted aspects. I think it was a big mistake to leave out Tom Bombadil as the only person who was not affected by the ring in any way. Perhaps he didn't "get him" but if so, that suggests missing the point of the whole book, it's not just a fight between evil and good, it's got this other dimension also that it's just one small incident in the vast history of middle Earth and there are some who are totally unaffected by the ring - so it loses a lot of the depth and breadth of the story to leave him out as the only character in the book who has that perspective. It just gets far too black and white, and unavoidably "heavy" if every character in the book is totally bound up with the ring.
Also in the original nearly all the characters sing on almost every opportunity - a reflection back to an earlier world when people were more light hearted perhaps and certainly sung while they worked, and sung a lot more (according to reports of song collectors in late C19 Britain for instance).
But I've not watched them for some time and only watched parts of the LOR, and don't have it on DVD.
See comments for my previous answer about the Hobbit, when I thought the question was also about the Hobbit trilogy.
And - some day I'll maybe have another try at watching the films. :). You can always say, maybe it was just a bad day, maybe on another occasion I'll "get" them, what the movies are all about, what Peter Jackson's overall vision was, and find the vision he presents more immersive.
But give me the book over the film any time.
I look forward to whenever the films go out of copyright, if they do, maybe then we'll get some good independent fan films of the LOR, perhaps in 2044? (By which time I'll be 90).
And it seems very much a lost opportunity. They could have made so much more of it. Surely they could have satisfied both types of viewer to some extent?
When will copyright restrictions expire on The Lord of the Rings?
for some of the issues fans of Tolkien's books have with the movies.
And for a list of misconceptions about the Lord of the Rings, including many that are propogated in the movie, see Misconceptions - Tolkien Gateway
Simulated fly over of Vesta using Dawn data - Vesta is the second largest asteroid in the belt after Ceres.
Full rotation of Vesta as viewed by Dawn. Asimov's first published story in 1938 was "Marooned off Vesta" where the crew are marooned in a damaged ship due to the captain's decision to fly through the asteroid belt rather than fly over it. NASA Cassini: Ring Plane Crossing of Saturn Up Ahead
Video description:
"The Radio and Plasma Wave Science (RPWS) instrument on Cassini-Huygens measured little puffs of plasma produced by dust impacts. While crossing the plane of Saturn's rings, the instrument detected up to 680 dust hits per second, or roughly 100 000 hits in less than five minutes.
"Scientists at University of Iowa, where the RPWS was designed, converted these impacts into audible sounds that resemble hail hitting a tin roof. "
Those impacts undoubtedly happened in the past.
Impact from 3.8 billion years ago when large asteroid impacts were still common. 3D map of Mars
The Aitken basin at the lunar South pole. It's believed to be over 3.8 billion years but the exact date is hard to pin down. Impact of an asteroid perhaps 170 km in diameter.And on Mercury we have:
Caloris Basin Mercury, 3.8 to 3.9 billion years old
Chatres Cathedral - cost to rebuild most of the cathedral in the early twelfth centuryabout 50 million dollars in 1972 money. Or around 260 million dollars in 2010 money.
There's another estimate here though, that is in terms of annual yearly wages for the labour.Santiago cathedral used a workforce of 50 skilled labourers from 1075 to 1211. So, that's around 6850 labourer years. The average US wage for a stone mason is around 40,000 dollars, so that works out to around 274 million dollars. Converting back to 2010 dollars, that's around 250 million dollars. That's just the labour, you also have to pay for materials. They estimated an equal cost for the materials. So that's around a half a billion dollars.
Kheops-Pyramid Great pyramid of Giza, 878 million dollars if built with today's materials and modern labour, build 170 of those.
Stonehenge (credit Diego Delsa) - eleven million dollars worth of labour, could build 13,600 using neolithic methods
Article IX: ... States Parties to the Treaty shall pursue studies of outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, and conduct exploration of them so as to avoid their harmful contamination and also adverse changes in the environment of the Earth resulting from the introduction of extraterrestrial matter and, where necessary, shall adopt appropriate measures for this purpose..
Spinning motions in space artificial gravity stimulate the posterior and anterior canals instead of the horizontal canal because the axis of rotation is above your head, and the Utricle and Saccule are stimulated differently as well.
"If, as has been suggested by previous flight research, microgravity actually provides an even less nauseating environment for centrifugation, then vestibular problems should certainly no longer remain an excuse that stands in the way of flight-testing an SRC [Short Radius Centrifuge] countermeasure. An orbiting test platform would allow not only definitive answers to the integration of otoliths and canals in the process of vestibular adaptation, but would also provide the first solid data beyond bed rest analogues about the efficiency of AG [Artificial Gravity] against musculoskeletal and cardiovascular losses. Furthermore, only in microgravity does the opportunity arise to examine the physiological effects of partial-g load, those between microgravity and Earth-normal 1-g."
"In order to truly address the operational aspects of short-radius AG, a centrifuge must be made available on orbit. It's time to start truly answering the questions of "how long", "how strong", "how often", and "under what limitations" artificial gravity can be provided by a short radius device.
2002 ESASP.501..151H Page 155
Yes that's the main potential problem you turn it into lots of smaller asteroids. If they are small enough, one or two meters, then they might all burn up in the atmosphere, but otherwise, you may ...
(more)Yes that's the main potential problem you turn it into lots of smaller asteroids. If they are small enough, one or two meters, then they might all burn up in the atmosphere, but otherwise, you may be making the problem far worse. But with a big enough nuclear weapon it could work.
Russians and Americans experts together came up with a plan for nuclear weapons which could break apart a 1 km asteroid and deflect a larger asteroid A new use for nuclear weapons: hunting rogue asteroids
See also Stephen Clements' answer - why not build an Orion space craft and use that to just push it out of the way :).
However, chances are that we can use a much more gentle approach.
With a big asteroid like that, chances are that it does many flybys of Earth before it hits, because Earth is a tiny target. For instance, probably at the time of the dinosaurs, if there was anyone to look up, they must had at least a few flybys - a bright star zipping overhead every few decades - before the time came when it hit the Earth. And probably if they had our technology they'd have been able to spot it maybe even centuries or thousands of years before it hit.
What's more, there's nothing that big that's in a suitable orbit to hit Earth in the near future that we know about. I'm talking here about the ten kilometer or larger size of asteroids (similar in size to Mars' tiny outer moon Deimos ).
Mars's smaller outer moon Phobos, 15 by 12 by 11 km in size, the asteroid that brought an end to the dinosaurs was about this size. If it was a Near Earth Asteroid, this big, surely we'd know about it already, though smaller ones could escape detection.
Comets this size or larger pass through the inner solar system from time to time but are very unlikely to hit Earth on their first pass by because it is such a tiny target. You'd expect at least a few flybys first. And the evidence of impact craters in the inner solar system shows that this is about the maximum size that has hit Earth, Mars, Mercury or the Moon for the last 3.8 billion years - the larger craters are all from the much more turbulent earlier solar system. Larger comets, it seems, all get either deflected to hit the sun or Jupiter or broken into smaller pieces by Jupiter's gravity during their occasional close flybys of the largest planet in our solar sytem.
There are objects that big that could hit Earth in the very distant future.
433 Eros is the second largest Near Earth Asteroid 34.4×11.2×11.2 km - a bit bigger even than the dinosaurs meteorite - and it has a 50% chance of hitting Earth in the next 100 million to billion years.
But it's not a problem for us right now, it can only hit us if its orbit changes quite a bit first.
If it is a Jupiter family comet, comes in to the inner solar system rarely, so the chance is very small of it hitting Earth. And if it comes from the outer solar system, very unlikely to be in same plane as Earth and likely to be like Halley's comet.
As you see, it can never hit Earth because it's orbit only crosses the plane of the Earth's orbit when it is about as far away as Venus, far closer to the sun.
So, - if you had a comet that came into the inner solar system for the first time, not likely it is in the same orbital plane as Earth. It needs to be deflected into the same plane first, which it could do with flybys of Jupiter (say). But those tend to break it up, or may deflect it so it escapes the solar system or hits Jupiter or hits the Sun, or grazes past it so it melts away.
So - likely to be lots of quite distant flybys in that case before it comes near to Earth.
Even for a Jupiter family short period comet, or a very large NEO, you probably have several flybys before it hits, because the Earth is an absolutely tiny target.
These are probabilities, can't say it is a certainty, but very likely.
Then in that situation, for each flyby before it actually hits, it has to fly past Earth through a particular "keyhole" region close to Earth. If you can get it to miss any of those keyholes, then it won't hit Earth.
So - when they talk about asteroid deflection strategies, normally is based on that assumption. Have several decades of advance warning and many flybys first, or at least one flyby before it hits.
In that case you just need to change its delta v by maybe a fraction of a meter per second, a long time before the flyby so it misses the keyhole, so then misses Earth next time around (or several flybys into the future).
So then you can use quite gentle methods. Ideas include a gravity tractor, or nudging it, kinetic impact, lots of ideas. This is the "gravity tractor" - like an ordinary orbit but continually offset just a bit away from your asteroid enough to pull it slightly. You might think - how would that make a difference? But do it continually for weeks and months on end and this can make the necessary fraction of a meter per second velocity change which is all that is needed for it to miss its keyhole.
For other ideas see Asteroid impact avoidance
So we might not need our nuclear weapons. More like a useful tool to have in our arsenal than one we are likely to use. If we do need them, we would have some legal obstacles in the form, particularly, of the nuclear test ban treaty for nuclear weapons. But surely we can agree globally to waive that treaty just for this one off use to deflect a meteorite.
(The outer space treaty prohibits putting weapons of mass destruction into space, so that might need to be waved also - though it's actually a weapon to avert mass destruction rather than to cause it, so it is within the spirit of the Outer Space Treaty I think. )
Anyway these huge asteroids are very rare. One in a million chance of a hit in the next century. A "one in a million" probability is often used as a standard of probability so low you can ignore it - though of course when it impacts the whole Earth potentially, you can't ignore even tiny probabilities.
But - it's not at all likely that we get one of these first. The 1 km asteroids are much more common. And the 100 meter asteroids are far far more common than either of those. And 10 meter asteroids even more common, they hit us all the time but typically burn up completely in the atmosphere as a brilliant fireball.
Frequency of small asteroids roughly 1 to 20 meters in diameter impacting Earth's atmosphere in a twenty year period. These are bolides - usually burn up in the upper atmosphere, create a fireball which can be brighter than the sun, but usually almost nothing survives to the ground, or could be a debris field of much smaller meteorites survive.
Example, a leonid fireball brighter than the Moon - but harmless, mostly just burns up in the upper atmosphere. These are far far far more common than the really big meteorites.
So as our detection methods get better we'll eventually be able to detect asteroids of a few tens of meters in diameter, objective is to be able to do that by the mid 2020s. So then - that means surely it's almost certain that the first predicted impact will be one of those. So we can try out deflection strategies with much smaller asteroids first, and then gradually "learn on the job" before we have to tackle one of these huge ones.
But if we did find a huge one headed our way, with not much warning, like a year or two say, very very unlikely - we could use the gigaton nuclear weapons option in that case. So the basic idea is not impossible, just very very unlikely. But the more likely situation is less dramatic for a movie, much smaller asteroids perhaps up to 100 meters or so, and a warning of a decade, or more likely several decades, with plenty of time to deflect it.
Especially as we step up the program to identify more and more of these asteroids sooner and sooner.
If you want to help with this, you can support the B612 foundation with a donation on their website.
You can also sign this petition to increase funding of asteroid detection by 100 times
100x Declaration
See also What are the chances of Asteroid 2012 TT5 hitting the Earth on September 24, 2015? where I talk about ways that we detect these asteroids and ways that we can detect more of them in the future and detect them a long time in advance.
See also my new: Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
File:Flock of sheep.jpg
File:Flock of sheep.jpg
" If the sheep normally used faces to distinguish between categories of individuals we argued that they would not have to learn to do this task and would always chose the face that was most attractive to them. This is exactly what happened. The sheep chose sheep faces over human ones and familiar sheep faces over unfamiliar ones. We mainly used female sheep for these studies and they showed a clear ability for distinguishing gender. When they were not sexually interested in males they chose female faces every time, but switched to choosing male faces for a couple of days during each cycle when sex was on the agenda. They even showed some preliminary evidence for individual recognition by actually having preferences for the face of one male over another (the media referred to this as a kind of sheep dating agency!). Interestingly, more mature males seemed to get the vote over younger ones! (Kendrick et al., 1995). So being an old ram or goat may have its compensations. In any event, face cues are clearly being used for attraction as well as recognition in sheep and we confirmed this again in studies we carried out establishing that mothers particularly influence the female facial characteristics that their male offspring found attractive when they grow up (Kendrick et al. 1998) (Ma Ma’s Boys as one paper put it!)."
Amongst all these stars - if there are ETIs there, surely they must have countless different ideas of beauty. Great works of art, inspired by beautiful (in their eyes) ETI equivalents of our blobfish, opabinia, sheep, or whatever.
'Beauty is truth, truth beauty,—that is all
Ye know on earth, and all ye need to know.'
625. Ode on a Grecian Urn. John Keats. The Oxford Book of English Verse
"In differential geometry, a (smooth) Riemannian manifold or (smooth) Riemannian space (M,g) is a real smooth manifold Mequipped with an inner producton the tangent spaceat each pointthat varies smoothly from point to point in the sense that if X and Y are vector fields on M, thenis a smooth function. The familyof inner products is called a Riemannian metric (tensor). These terms are named after the German mathematician Bernhard Riemann. The study of Riemannian manifolds constitutes the subject called Riemannian geometry."
In 1828, Carl Friedrich Gauss proved his Theorema Egregium (remarkable theorem in Latin), establishing an important property of surfaces. Informally, the theorem says that the curvature of a surface can be determined entirely by measuring distances along paths on the surface. That is, curvature does not depend on how the surface might be embedded in 3-dimensional space.See differential geometry of surfaces. Bernhard Riemann extended Gauss's theory to higher-dimensional spaces called manifolds in a way that also allows distances and angles to be measured and the notion of curvature to be defined, again in a way that was intrinsic to the manifold and not dependent upon its embedding in higher-dimensional spaces. Albert Einstein used the theory of Riemannian manifolds to develop his general theory of relativity. In particular, his equations for gravitation are constraints on the curvature of space.
Image by ESO’s New Technology Telescope at the La Silla Observatory of CFBDSIR J214947.2-040308.9 in infrared light. It's the faint dark blue dot right at the centre of the image (not its real colour obviously, this is a photograph taken in the infrared with false colour) . Credit: ESO/P. Delorme.
See: New Rogue Planet Found, Closest to our Solar System
“Thrust was observed on both test articles, even though one of the test articles was designed with the expectation that it would not produce thrust. Specifically, one test article contained internal physical modifications that were designed to produce thrust, while the other did not (with the latter being referred to as the “null” test article).”
”CalTech physicist Sean Carroll, who we’ve spoken to previously about the feasibility of an EMDrive, echoes Davis’ sentiments.
“My insight is that the EMDrive is complete crap and a waste of time,” Carroll tells io9. “Right there in the abstract this paper says, ‘Our test campaign can not confirm or refute the claims of the EMDrive’, so I’m not sure what the news is. I’m going to spend my time thinking about ideas that don’t violate conservation of momentum.”
No, German Scientists Have Not Confirmed the “Impossible” EMDrive
Dear radioactive ladies and gentlemen,
As the bearer of these lines [...] will explain more exactly, considering the 'false' statistics of N-14and Li-6 nuclei, as well as the continuous β-spectrum, I have hit upon a desperate remedy to save the "exchange theorem" of statistics and the energy theorem. Namely [there is] the possibility that there could exist in the nuclei electrically neutral particles that I wish to call neutrons,[nb 2] which have spin 1/2 and obey the exclusion principle, and additionally differ from light quanta in that they do not travel with the velocity of light: The mass of the neutron must be of the same order of magnitude as the electron mass and, in any case, not larger than 0.01 proton mass. The continuous β-spectrum would then become understandable by the assumption that in β decay a neutron is emitted together with the electron, in such a way that the sum of the energies of neutron and electron is constant.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El...
Whether a microorganism from Mars exists and could attack us is more conjectural. If so, it might be a zoonosis to beat all others...
On the one hand, how could microbes from Mars be pathogenic for hosts on Earth when so many subtle adaptations are needed for any new organisms to come into a host and cause disease? On the other hand, microorganisms make little besides proteins and carbohydrates, and the human or other mammalian immune systems typically respond to peptides or carbohydrates produced by invading pathogens. Thus, although the hypothetical parasite from Mars is not adapted to live in a host from Earth, our immune systems are not equipped to cope with totally alien parasites: a conceptual impasse
…Precisely because Mars is an environment of great potential biological interest, it is possible that on Mars there are pathogens, organisms which, if transported to the terrestrial environment, might do enormous biological damage - a Martian plague, the twist in the plot of H. G. Wells' War of the Worlds, but in reverse. This is an extremely grave point. On the one hand, we can argue that Martian organisms cannot cause any serious problems to terrestrial organisms, because there has been no biological contact for 4.5 billion years between Martian and terrestrial organisms. On the other hand, we can argue equally well that terrestrial organisms have evolved no defenses against potential Martian pathogens, precisely because there has been no such contact for 4.5 billion years. The chance of such an infection may be very small, but the hazards, if it occurs, are certainly very high.
…The likelihood that such pathogens exist is probably small, but we cannot take even a small risk with a billion lives.
Carl Sagan
Credit: Zina Deretsky, National Science Foundation
The red colouration of this pea aphid comes from a unique ability to generate carotenoids itself. It got this ability through horizontal gene transfer from a fungi.
Archaea can also transfer genes between phyla that are as different from each other as fungi are different from aphids. It is an ancient mechanism and so may also be able to transfer genes from life that had last common ancestor with us in the early solar system.
In one experiment 47% of the microbes (in many phyla) in a sample of sea water left overnight with a GTA conferring antibiotic resistance had taken it up by the next day
Green sulfur bacteria in a Winogradsky column. One species of this type of bacteria is able to use the heat radiation of hydrothermal vents to photosynthesize. So photosynthetic life in the Europa and Enceladus oceans is possible as well as on Mars. See Infrared photosynthesis: a potential power source for alien life in sunless places
Salt ponds in San Francisco bay, pink and red with Haloarchaea (salt loving bacteria, the same ones that turn the Red Sea red). These photosynthesize using bacteriarhodopsin, which is what gives them their pink coloration. The light sensitive cells in our eyes use rhodopsin in a similar process. This method of photosynthesis doesn’t generate oxygen or fixate carbon but converts light directly into an electrical potential which the lifeform uses for energy.
Suppose for instance the life uses photosynthesis, but has a third method not yet explored by Earth life?
Yes, easily. Indeed just using ordinary solar panels, if you had enough of them, you could power the entire world from a small patch of the Sahara desert (well, “small” compared to the surface area...
(more)Yes, easily. Indeed just using ordinary solar panels, if you had enough of them, you could power the entire world from a small patch of the Sahara desert (well, “small” compared to the surface area of the Earth, it’s still a huge solar panel array)
Squares show the area of the Sahara desert that would need to be covered with solar thermal power plants to power the World, the EU and Germany, with 2005 technology Desertec
As prices of solar panels go down, if we can have solar panels everywhere - on roofs, on car parks, roads (embedded in the surface or suspended overhead), pavements, cars, etc - and if you can sort out the transmission of the power as well - that would be the end of the energy crisis and of global warming right there, at least with present day levels of demand on power.
There are many possibilities for night time storage. For instance if you use reflectors to concentrate heat in the desert, a natural form of storage is to use well insulated liquid salt which stores the heat from solar collectors for up to a week. Thermal energy storage
You can also use flywheels to store the energy overnight: New energy storage plant could 'revolutionise' renewable sector
This is another interesting idea Gravity Power Energy Storage
And there is the idea of using the batteries of electric cars. If everyone had electric cars then since most cars are parked idle most of the time, then you could use them for load balancing, - the parked cars charge up preferentially (more quickly) at times when there is an excess, e.g. in daytime if most of the electricity is solar, or when winds are high for wind energy - and return electricity to the grid if there is a sudden demand to be met, Vehicle-to-grid
The main problem was the cost of the solar panels and because they needed use of rare elements - and that sunshine is not so available in higher latitudes. But costs are going down, and ways of making the solar panels devised that require materials that are reasonably plentiful.
If the costs of solar panels gets really low to the point where it makes sense for anyone to buy them and they pay themselves back quickly - then that would be the end of the global warming crisis. Also pretty much the end of the fossil fuel industry at least for supplying fuel for cars. So a major change there. We'd then use fossil fuel for other things like plastics and medicine etc. And probably also use electricity to create fuel from sunlight (perhaps hydrogen as a fuel).
I'm sure this will happen eventually. But will it take several decades, or a century or just a few years? So - when they talk about global warming - I see the main issue as - how much CO2 will we put into the atmosphere before we are able to make this transition to almost entirely green power? And what will the status of the world be when we make that transition?
So for instance things like carbon capture at source (so that you capture the CO2 at the powerstation itself), anything that can delay the onset of global warming gives us that bit extra margin to find a solution.
Artist's impression of the NASA Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer. Researchers proved that Nibiru and Tyche can't exist in results published in 2014, using data that it collected in 2010 to 2011.
Has a dip at 50 au. Models showed the number of objects should double at 50 au. So some suggest there must be a planet, as large as Mars or Earth to "shepherd" the kuiper belt like Saturn's shepherding moons for its rings. What if we find an object large enough to do that, also as large as Mars or Earth, but which can't "clear its orbit" according to the IAU definition.
"The rule about not clearing neighbourhood doesn't make too much sense to me what about the Jupiter trojans (about as numerous as the asteroids of the asteroid belt) and Jupiter family comets and even Neos?
And for that matter - has Neptune cleared Pluto out of its orbit?
And anyway - could anything as far out as Pluto clear its neighbourhood given the wide variety of inclinations and eccentricities of KBOs?
- and it's a bit of a strange definition if you don't know if it is a planet until you have done a census of all the other objects in its neighbourhood - and if applied to exoplanets - would mean that you just don't know if they are planets or not until you know a whole lot more than we can expect to know by remote observation in early stages.
And does that mean that in the early solar system - e.g. in late heavy bombardment when a whole lot of objects came into the inner solar system - possibly from the outer solar system, or wherever they came from, that for a while Earth ceased to be a planet until it had cleared them all out of its orbit?
Or if you make it a kind of theoretical thing "capable of clearing its orbit, but right now it is a bit overwhelmed by new material so hasn't actually done it yet" then it just seems a rather quixotic way to define a planet.
I just don't find the idea very convincing myself, from what I've seen of it so far.
So, I'm inclined to go with Alan Stern there, it doesn't make much sense to me to not call Pluto a planet for this reason.
Though calling it the largest of the dwarf planets is also good, but a dwarf planet surely is a planet? Again it seems kind of logically odd to not call them planets. I'd call them all planets, and qualify them as "dwarf planets" to say they are small - and add in Ceres as a planet, but a dwarf planet. And leave "dwarf" as vague so that compared to the gas giants, then Earth and Venus are also dwarf planets, but in ordinary use a dwarf planet would be a planet that is smaller than Mars, around the size of the Moon, not much larger than it.
Alen Stern's suggestion is to call Earth and Venus, Mars, Mercury - the planets to the left of the picture, dwarfs, and the really tiny Pluto, Charon, KBO objects etc, to the right of the picture, sub dwarfs. But they are all planets. Image from: Illustrations - Roberto Ziche
"According to the Mission Design Center’s trajectory browser maintained by NASA Ames Research Center, there are very favorable launch windows for JGA trajectories for a Pluto flyby mission late this year and again late next year. Obviously, this is insufficient time to mount a new mission."
What about the next Pluto mission?
Here is a list of possible Pluto trajectories - launch dates 26th November 2015, 14th December 2016 or 31st December 2028 - this is for a flyby, takes around 10 years, so for an orbiter, a few years more
(Aside about whether Tom Bombadil could have protected the Hobbits from the black riders more actively as they slept in his cottage:)
(That he could do that is hinted in the flight to the Ford when Frodo tries to tell the black riders to stop and go back to Mordor - but it says, "The Riders halted - but Frodo had not the power of Tom Bombadil". That would seem to suggest some previous episode known to the narrator when Tom stopped them - also Frodo's dream about the black riders and his reaction when he wakes up in Tom Bombadil's house: "There was a noise like a strong wind blowing, and on it was borne the sound of hoofs, galloping, galloping, galloping from the East. ‘Black Riders!’ thought Frodo as he wakened, with the sound of the hoofs still echoing in his mind. He wondered if he would ever again have the courage to leave the safety of these stone walls. He lay motionless, still listening; but all was now silent, and at last he turned and fell asleep again or wandered into some other unremembered dream." - hints at the possibility there with "all was now silent" that his dream might have been triggered by actual hoofs galloping outside of Tom Bombadil's cottage - then after they wake up, reinforcing this hint: ... "He had half expected to see turf right up to the walls, turf all pocked with hoof-prints".
But beyond that - in the book as it is there is no account of Tom stopping them. I'm not sure, but I have a vague memory that perhaps this was made more explicit in an earlier draft, the suggestion that Tom Bombadil somehow held the black riders off while they visited him. Is that true or was it never made any more explicit than this? If anyone knows more about this, do say in the comments).
New Horizons couldn't do it, because it took a very fast path to Pluto, less than 10 years and was designed around a flyby mission - is just going too fast to stop easily. The plus side is that - a...
(more)New Horizons couldn't do it, because it took a very fast path to Pluto, less than 10 years and was designed around a flyby mission - is just going too fast to stop easily. The plus side is that - as well as getting there as quickly as possible - that as Max Jones says, it gets to do a flyby of at least one small Kuiper belt object, if the extended mission is approved (as surely it will??)
2004 STUDY FOR AN ORBITER OF PLUTO
However, it is technically possible to orbit Pluto, with current technology and without that much difficulty, if you take a bit longer to get there. Here is a plan for a 900 kg spacecraft (about double the mass of New Horizons) which could orbit Pluto in the 2030s if launched in 2016, with one Jupiter flyby gravity assist on the way. That's including fuel, power systems etc. Payload is 19 kg. And it gets to Pluto in summer 2033, and spirals down from the capture orbit, and uses gravity assists from Charon, to start close up scientific observation by 2034. So that's about 18 years for the flight time.
It has an ion thruster motor, like the Dawn Ceres mission - and it accelerates away from Jupiter after the flyby for half its journey - then it decelerates for the rest of the way in order to arrive in the vicinity of Pluto with a low enough delta v for initial capture at a distance of 1.5 million km (that's around four times the distance to the Moon) see Preliminary design of an advanced mission to Pluto
That's a 2004 study - so it would surely be done differently in detail now - but it is a detailed study and gives an idea of what is possible.
It's too late though to design a spacecraft and fly it on this trajectory starting now see
"According to the Mission Design Center’s trajectory browser maintained by NASA Ames Research Center, there are very favorable launch windows for JGA trajectories for a Pluto flyby mission late this year and again late next year. Obviously, this is insufficient time to mount a new mission."
What about the next Pluto mission?
WHEN IS THE EARLIEST WE COULD GET A DEDICATED ORBITER TO PLUTO IF WE STARTED ON THE PROJECT NOW?
Here is a list of possible Pluto trajectories - launch dates 26th November 2015, 14th December 2016 or 31st December 2028 - this is for a flyby, takes around 10 years, so for an orbiter, a few years more
Trajectory Browser
So seems first time we could do an orbiter now - short of a crash program to somehow get an orbiter together by December 2016, if that is even possible - would get it to the planet some time in the early 2040s. At least if we use a Jupiter gravity assist, as New Horizons did.
There may be opportunities to get there sooner using flybys of Venus and Earth that don't need a Jupiter gravity assist that could be launched in the early 2020s - this possibility is mentioned in What about the next Pluto mission?
The original New Horizons mission also looked into a number of other options including Earth gravity assists - where you use the Oberth effect, apply delta v during close flyby of Earth which multiplies the effect of the delta v often by a significant factor.
So - presumably a detailed study would look into those as well, taking into account new capabilities. For more about these ideas, see Draft Environmental Impact Statement for New Horizons Mission (scroll down to 2.3.2 Alternative Trajectories on that page)
The other possibility of course is that with new technology, we find a way to launch spacecraft with much higher delta v from Earth, or a way to get there more quickly.
WHY NEW HORIZONS COULDN'T DO IT, MORE DETAIL
As for the idea of New Horizons doing it if you gave it more fuel - well it had delta v of 13.78 km / sec relative to Pluto when it did the flyby.
So with Pluto escape velocity of 1.3 km / sec it would need to shed 12.5 km / sec. The Oberth effect (where a thrust is more effective if applied deep within a gravity well) doesn't help significantly because Pluto's gravity and escape velocity is so low.
So, that makes it easy to calculate the fuel it would have needed to slow down to get into orbit.
It had a total post launch delta-v of over 290 m/s (1,000 km/h; 650 mph) provided by a 77 kg (170 lb) internal tank
(details from the wikipedia article on New Horizons, and checking up on this info, see also New Horizons for the details of the 77 kg fuel tank and NASA - NSSDC - Spacecraft - Details for the 290 m/s)
So given that we want 12.5 km / s instead of 0.29 km/s for the total delta v - we need to use a lot of fuel to slow it down. To do this properly we’d need to use the rocket equation and feed in the mass of the rocket, specific impulse etc. But we don’t need to do that, to see that it is unfeasible.
The amount of fuel needed to slow down into orbit is going to be at least 77*12.5/0.29 = 3319 kg of fuel.
So, that's not taking account of the need of extra fuel to decelerate the fuel itself + its fuel tank during the maneuver.
Given that New Horizons itself is less than half a ton, obviously it wasn't practical to add more than three tons of extra fuel to try to slow it down at Pluto. You need 77% as much delta v to decelerate to orbit around Pluto as was needed for its record breaking 16.26 escape delta v when launched from Earth.
WHAT ABOUT NEW HORIZONS LAUNCHING A SMALLER "DAUGHTER SPACECRAFT"?
It wouldn't work to launch a smaller "daughter spacecraft" like Beagle II or Huyguens to study Pluto because New Horizons wouldn't be hanging around to relay its signals back to Earth. A daughter satellite could relay signals during the flyby itself - but would soon be out of communication distance with the parent. The whole thing would need to decelerate - power source, radio antenna to communicate with Earth etc.
So that idea was obviously impractical.
They had the choice to get there fast - or to get there more slowly and orbit - but it would seem - not both. At least, not with the technology available at time of launch.
2. The impure nickel reacts with carbon monoxide at 50–60 °C to form the gas nickel carbonyl, leaving the impurities as solids.
Ni(s) + 4 CO(g) → Ni(CO)4(g)
Mond process
Breath mark (music)
- Notes should be subtly unequal - having no three notes the same helps to keep the music alive and interesting and helps prevent any feeling of sameness and boredom in the music - the idea of "Entasis"
This technique is especially challenging in its application, because musicians today are so rigidly trained in metrical regularity. Yet, like the beating of the heart, the musical pulse needs to fluctuate in speed as the emotional content of the music fluctuates. Like the natural shifting accents in speech, musical accents need to shift according to the meaning being expressed. To feel perfect, music must be metrically imperfect.
- Notes and musical phrases can be organized in gestures – particular patterns of rhythm that come naturally – rather than strict measures.
- Individual notes can be delayed slightly – when you expect a particular note e.g. at the end of a musical phrase – just waiting a moment or two before playing the note:
The cognitive partner of hesitation is anticipation: anticipation is created by building up assumption on assumption about what will happen. When the event which should occur fails to happen at the expected time, there exists a moment of disappointment. Disappointment, however, is soon transformed into a rush of pleasure when the anticipated event is consummated. The art is always in the timing.This just touches on some of the ideas; for more details, see The Craft of Musical Communication
This is what it would be like at midday on Pluto. Except of course that on Pluto if there is any liquid, it's either liquid nitrogen or liquid neon or some such. And not likely to be grass or houses though we won't be flying close enough to spot Pluto life on the remote possibility that there is life there, unless it has an obvious effect on the landscape. Even multicellular life, not quite the resolution to spot even likes of trees etc, though I think most would think they are unlikely, but there are ideas for exobiology using liquid nitrogen for instance, I think you'd be a brave exobiologist to say that multicellular life is absolutely impossible on Pluto, and even more so to say single cell life is impossible.
Many more images here: Pluto Time
Lick observatory in 1900. First conclusive proof that there is almost no oxygen on Mars was a paper from this observatory in 1926
“Eh, what?” said Tom sitting up, and his eyes glinting in...(more)
“Eh, what?” said Tom sitting up, and his eyes glinting in the gloom. “Don’t you know my name yet? That’s the only answer. Tell me, who are you, alone, yourself and nameless? But you are young and I am old. Eldest, that’s what I am. Mark my words, my friends: Tom was here before the river and the trees; Tom remembers the first raindrop and the first acorn. He made paths before the Big People, and saw the little People arriving. He was here before the Kings and the graves and the Barrow-wights. When the Elves passed westward, Tom was here already, before the seas were bent. He knew the dark under the stars when it was fearless—before the Dark Lord came from Outside.”
"Gwynne Shotwell has stated in the NASA press conference regarding the incident that yes, the capsule would have ejected in an event like this and it would have been able to withstand much more, as the explosion has originated in the second stage of the rocket. The capsule is designed to carry astronauts (and cargo in the future) away safely from the rocket in case of explosion in the first stage."
First, it was a really gripping story, I greatly enjoyed it, and had enough hard science to be very satisfying. And was a real page turner, I think I probably read it all the way through in one go ...
(more)First, it was a really gripping story, I greatly enjoyed it, and had enough hard science to be very satisfying. And was a real page turner, I think I probably read it all the way through in one go until I finished it :).
But it did have quite a few improbabilities. Especially, the dust storm at the beginning. Let me explain:
The highest speeds are probably in the dust devils. Can be up to 45 meters per second or 162 kilometers per hour (100 miles per hour). HiRISE Clocks Hurricane Speed Winds In Martian Dust Devils
That's easily fast enough to count as a hurricane on the Earth. However the strength of the wind depends not just on its speed but also the density of the wind.
ONE HUNDREDTH DENSITY OF EARTH WINDS
The density of the Mars atmosphere is far less than Earth's. This varies between day and night and between summer and winter and depending on altitude. It is greatest at the bottom of the Hellas basin in the northern summer. Roughly though, it is about 1% of Earth's.
So, that means, that the winds have a hundredth of the mass, and energy, they have on Mars for the same velocity.
EQUIVALENT TO WINDS OF A TENTH OF THE SPEED
Or, putting that another way, to convert those 162 kilometers per hour winds into Earth equivalents - since kinetic energy = mass * velocity squared, then that hundredth of the mass means winds there have the same kinetic energy as a wind on Earth at a tenth of the velocity.
So - that 162 kilometers per hour on Mars is roughly equivalent in its effect to 16.2 kilometers per hour on Earth in terms of its kinetic energy.
Even if you were stood right in the middle of a dust devil, you'd feel roughly the same strength of wind blowing past you that you'd feel on a gentle cycle ride on a calm day.
Astronaut caught in a Martian dust storm as imagined in the BBC Space Odyssey (TV series) - 27 minutes into the DVD.
And another screen shot from the same TV series of the astronaut standing unperturbed as the dust devil passes by - so this is a movie that got it right.
ANALOGY TO EXPLAIN WHY THIS IS
If someone is throwing five pin bowling balls at you, at say 20 miles per hour, and lots of them, say 10 a minute, you'd notice it.
If they throw ping pong balls at you at the same speed, same frequency, you'd hardly notice.
It would be roughly equivalent to throwing the five pin bowling balls at you at a much slower speed.
Table tennis ball mass 2.7 grams
Five pin bowling ball - mass 1.588 to 1.644 kilograms
In fact, a ping pong ball at 2.7 grams and 20 miles per hour has same kinetic energy as a five pin bowling ball at 1644 grams and 0.81 miles / hour ( 20*sqrt(2.7/1644) )
That's very slow, would be hard to actually throw it much distance at all at that speed. It's more like, if they are holding it in their hand and swing it gently back and forth and accidentally hit you with it as they do so. You'd feel roughly the same impact as you'd feel from a ping pong ball thrown at you as fast as they can throw it.
Well it's like that. We don't have much experience of being hit by very light things at 160 km / hour which is why I am using these everyday examples of much heavier things thrown at slower speeds.
STRONGEST WINDS ON MARS ARE EQUIVALENT IN STRENGTH TO BEAUFORT LEVEL 3, GENTLE BREEZE
On the Beaufort scale, it's equivalent to level 3, gentle breeze. Enough wind so that small twigs start to move about and the tops of waves at sea begin to show a little bit of white. But it's not quite enough to raise dust or dead leaves in autumn. That's Beaufort level 4.
Even the strongest winds won't be able to blow away significant parts of a rover or damage the solar panels.
ENOUGH WIND TO DISTURB AN AUTUMN LEAF?
The very strongest gusts of winds on Mars, right in the middle of a dust devil, wouldn't be enough to disturb the position of an autumn leaf if there was one on the surface at least not under Earth gravity.
If you put an autumn leaf on Mars, 40% lighter, perhaps there'd be enough wind in the strongest gusts of a dust devil to gently blow it across the surface.
EXAMPLE UNDISTURBED PARACHUTES
As an example of this, the parachutes from our landers on Mars remain on the surface just where they landed for years on end.
This image may identify one of the parachutes of Beagle 2 which has remained undisturbed on the surface for about a decade. You wouldn't expect it to be moved by the Martian winds as they are just too weak for this.Beagle 2 spacecraft found intact on surface of Mars after 11 years
Indeed the dust devils have proved to be useful by cleaning the dust from the solar panels. And they can only do that because the Mars dust is extremely fine, as fine as cigarette smoke. They couldn't pick up ordinary Earth dust.
The average dust particle size is of the order of 1.6 microns.
Dust on Mars - University of Copenhagen You would need a microscope or hand lens to see the individual particles. This Mars dust is similar in size to the dust in tobacco smoke and average sized bacteria. Particle Sizes
HOW THE SAND DUNES WORK - BECAUSE OF MUCH LOWER GRAVITY
The sand dunes are impressive looking as if they were results of much stronger winds. But the larger particles in the dunes move through "saltation" where the particles do not get taken right up into the atmosphere but instead move on ballistic trajectories - of a few hundred meters (far further than on Earth) - this moves particles of up to mms scale that are far too large to be lifted up into the atmosphere. Giant saltation on Mars
The huge moving sand dunes there are a result of the lower gravity, which lets the grains of sand move more easily without ever being taken up into the atmosphere. So that again gives an impression that the winds on Mars are stronger than they are.
UNDERSTANDABLE MISTAKE
So it's an understandable mistake to make. But it's a mistake all the same.
Then, the idea he could sustain himself for so long by the methods he used I thought was wildly improbable.
But, as I said, enjoyed it, just suspended disbelief, much as you do when you get Star Trek books talking about transporters and hyperspace. So, this is a Mars where the winds can blow big things away beyond the horizon. Adds to the drama, makes it a more exciting story.
Okay it's not quite the Mars in our solar system, but can enjoy it all the same and enjoy the techy details he did get right. And things like how he eventually communicates back to Earth are really clever and ingenious and a lot of fun. That was the best bit of the book for me as far as hard science goes :).
UPDATE
Peter Voelkl says in a comment, it's an intentional "mistake" he did for plot purposes, i.e. a bit of artistic license.
He explains it 14 minutes into this interview here: Triangulation 163: Andy Weir from Triangulation (MP3)
Also at 32 minutes into this
He mentions some more things in this interview with Adam Savage of Mythbusters
At 9 minutes in they discuss how his spacesuits can be put on by one person unlike present day ones and how they are flexible so you don't have to e.g. use tools to pick things up from the surface as the Apollo astronauts do. But that's more like extrapolation of current technology.
As 36 minutes in he mentions a mistake he did with reducing Hydrazine, exothermic reaction a chemist says that - in the book he gives enough information to calculate the temperature increase of the hab to do it over the given time - it would have heated the hab by 400 C roasted him alive, too late for him to correct it as it was already in print. A million ways he could have fixed it.
At 39 minutes in he mentions another error - that he didn't know you can just bake the CO2 out of lithium hydroxide canisters.
Let the Cognitive Dissonance Begin
Some of this food could easily be toxic to humans, or vice versa, even if we are all biologically closely related. In the Star Trek universe then they have an underlying hypothesis that all the planets with the various humanoids on them were seeded by the Ancient humanoids, so it's reasonable that it is all using the same amino acids as Earth life. Could be the same if there's a common origin because e.g. the life originated on another planet around an earlier star that passed through the protoplanetary disks of the forming solar systems.
In Star Trek they go one step further (rather improbably) that the humanoids are so closely related they can actually interbreed, which would suggest that they can eat just about anything we can. Still, even then, they need to take some care. Humans vary a fair bit in their tolerance to foods and in allergic reactions that can be deadly. A Thanksgiving Look At Great Meals In Star Trek History
At 1:45 "If you look inside a computer, you find an impressive assembly of basic mechanisms. Some of them are duplicated many times in one computer"
Wikipedia article about it, range keeper.
Artist's impression of our Earth during the last Glacial period of the current Ice age
"The exploration and use of outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, shall be carried out for the benefit and in the interests of all countries, irrespective of their degree of economic or scientific development, and shall be the province of all mankind."
Treaty text here: Outer Space Treaty - 1967
River turtle, Boremys basking on a Triceratops dinosaur skull, Credit: Brian T. Roach, Yale Peabody Museum
How Tough Turtles Survived Dino-Killing Meteor
Impact from 3.8 billion years ago when large asteroid impacts were still common. 3D map of Mars - Hellas Basin on Mars
The Aitken basin at the lunar South pole. It's believed to be over 3.8 billion years but the exact date is hard to pin down. Impact of an asteroid perhaps 170 km in diameter.
The Caloris basin on Mercury.
Dissolving of nature into abstract concepts in Mondrian's art:In art, music, writing, then we look at various ways of abstracting from things. Lots of particular abstractions.
- The Flowering Apple Tree
- Pier and Ocean
- Tableau No. IV
See Piet Mondrian
Comparison of truncated icosahedron and soccer ball
Amongst all the many sets of mathematics, you can describe a truncated icosahedron as a set of edges, faces and vertices
Envisat - Earth Online - ESA - largest civilian Earth observatory at 8 tonnes, now inactive, lost communications in 2012.
Is top priority for removal from LEO because it's at a height where orbital debris frequently passes close to it, and if it breaks up, the debris it causes would last for 150 years and likely to hit other satellites and break them up also so accelerating the Kessler syndrome (which some would say, has already started).
Analysis and prediction
"This comprehensive study of an unexplained apparent dermopathy demonstrated no infectious cause and no evidence of an environmental link. There was no indication that it would be helpful to perform additional testing for infectious diseases as a potential cause. Future efforts should focus on helping patients reduce their symptoms through careful attention to treatment of co-existing medical, including psychiatric conditions, that might be contributing to their symptoms."
We were not able to conclude based on this study whether this unexplained dermopathy represents a new condition, as has been proposed by those who use the term Morgellons, or wider recognition of an existing condition such as delusional infestation, with which it shares a number of clinical and epidemiologic features. We found little on biopsy that was treatable, suggesting that the diagnostic yield of skin biopsy, without other supporting clinical evidence, may be low. However, we did find among our study population co-existing conditions for which there are currently available therapies (drug use, somatization). These data should assist clinicians in tailoring their diagnostic and treatment approaches to patients who may be affected. In the absence of an established cause or treatment, patients with this unexplained dermopathy may benefit from receipt of standard therapies for co-existing medical conditions and/or those recommended for similar conditions such delusions infestation
"It is indeed true that the CDC were being cautious, that they found no positive evidence for the claims made by Morgellons sufferers, but it does not mean that the study can go without critical appraisal. Although expensive and lengthy, the research only clinically evaluated 41 people. Furthermore, since the population was selected by criteria other than self-identification it has been argued by critics of the study that some of those included did not have or even consider themselves to have Morgellons. The validity of these criticisms may rest on somewhat pedantic points, but what is certainly true is that an awful lot of reading between the lines has been passed off as something more substantial."See Learning from Morgellons, Harry Quinn Schone, Masters thesis for UCLA,
Short answer, nothing much for most of us:
Short answer, nothing much for most of us:
HOW OFTEN DO WE GET A MAGNETIC REVERSAL?
First, full magnetic reversals, where the field flips and stays flipped, are rare, roughly every 200,000 years but sometimes with much longer gaps between them. The last one was Brunhes–Matuyama reversal 781,000 years ago.
But sometimes the magnetic field reverses temporarily, and then reverts to its original state again. One geologically recent example, the Laschamp event 41,000 years ago. This happened surprisingly quickly, around a century for the polarity shift, unlike a full reversal that takes thousands of years for it to reverse.
It was a complete reversal, not just a change in position of the pole. While reversed, the field strength was only 5% of our normal magnetic field, but it had North and South interchanged. It lasted for 440 years. Of that time period, the two reversals took up 250 years.
An extremely brief reversal of the geomagnetic field, climate variability and a super volcano
It’s not much different though whether it just flips for a short time or flips for a long time.
In this diagram the yellow dots track the motion of the north "virtual geomagnetic pole"
For a couple of science news stories about this research: An extremely brief reversal of the geomagnetic field, climate variability and a super volcano , Ice age polarity reversal was global event: Extremely brief reversal of geomagnetic field, climate variability, and super volcano
It remained reversed for a total of 450 years and the two polarity reversals took 250 years of that. That's very rapid on geological timescales.
For the detailed scientific paper: Dynamics of the Laschamp geomagnetic excursion from Black Sea sediments. This diagram is discussed on page 65.
So, it does seem it is something that can happen. Not just in a few years. But over a couple of centuries.
There have been other magnetic field "excursions" as these are called. Gothenburg magnetic reversal 11,500 years ago and Mono Lake magnetic reversal of 23,000 years ago .
This is a simulation of a magnetic reversal on supercomputer from 2010, just to give an idea of how it works, it's not just the magnetic poles moving, like turning around, the magnetic field would get complex in the middle of the transition. It would get pretty hard to use a compass, I'd imagine, need to rely on up to date maps of the direction of the magnetic field in whatever part of the world you were sailing in.
This is what it's like in the middle of a reversal:
We are nowhere near anything like that at present.
CURRENT SITUATION, NO SIGN OF A REVERSAL
The South dip pole lies at a latitude of 64.28 degrees South, outside Antarctica, in the open ocean, also outside the Antarctic circle.
While the North magnetic pole is far closer to the pole, almost directly at it right now:
As you see the N. magnetic pole is continuing to move closer to the geometric N. pole and the S. magnetic pole is continuing to move away from the geometric S. pole.
In these diagrams, the blue is the geomagnetic pole - treats the Earth as if it were a dipole magnet. So the geomagnetic poles are diametrically opposite each other. The red dots are the dip poles - the point on the surface where your compass needle would point directly downwards or upwards.
More about it here: Magnetic Poles
There's also evidence that the magnetic field is getting weaker. But it’s been much stronger than usual for a while and so far it is not particularly low, just declining towards rather ordinary values
What it will do next is anybody’s guess. If you extrapolate that graph, it reaches 0 so a reversal after 1500 years. But there is no reason to suppose that it’s doing that. Even if it gets very weak, often you get “excursions” where the field gets weak, but then just restores itself in the same direction as before.
So there is no reason to suppose it will reverse based on the magnetic field strength so far. The magnetic poles are continually moving anyway and at present they are close to the poles and the magnetic field strength is normal.
But it could happen. And we can get an idea of the effects, from studies of the last time it happened.
EFFECTS OF THE REVERSAL LAST TIME IT HAPPENED
There were increased levels of radiation, with increased levels of Beryllium 10 and carbon 14. See https://www.sciencedaily.com/rel...
(note, in case of confusion: the paper doesn’t say that the reversal caused the supervolcano eruption, it’s just that their research allowed them to research both events as they were close together in time)
We remain protected by the atmosphere, which is roughly equivalent in radiation shielding to ten meters thickness of water. So we don't need to be concerned we'll all die, like astronauts caught in a solar storm outside the shelter of the Earth's magnetic field. That can't happen.
Human beings have managed fine through many previous reversals. Anatomically modern humans evolved around 200,000 years ago, archaic humans 500,000 years ago, and earlier hominids have been around for millions of years, see human evolution
The weaker magnetic field during a reversal wouldn’t make much difference for the faster particles in cosmic radiation as these fast particles go straight through the Earth’s magnetic field anyway. And some particles are even accelerated by the magneticfield. The Earth’s atmosphere protects us from this, again shielding equivalent to ten meters thickness of water.
Theoretically the increased radiation levels from the slower particles could increase cloud levels (because radiation is supposed to help with cloud formation, similarly to the way they produce trails in cloud chambers) which could cool the Earth. The authors of that paper couldn't find a clear correlation of weather with the cosmic ray flux during the Laschamp event however (just summarizing what they way in their paper).
More generally, there’s no proven link between magnetic reversals and extinctions.
“During a transition the magnetic field at the surface of the Earth decreases to about 10% of its current value. If the geomagnetic field is a shield against energetic particles of solar or cosmic origin then biospheric effects can be expected. We review the early speculations on the problem and discuss in more detail its current status. We conclude that no clear picture of a geomagnetic link, a causal relation between secular magnetic field variations and the evolution of life on our planet can be drawn.”
In more detail: in the summary conclusion section on page 157 of the earlier paper:The Sun, geomagnetic polarity transitions, and possible biospheric effects: review and illustrating model (2009) they conclude that the main effect would be generation of a natural hole in the ozone layer and this would stress the populations of phytoplankton in the sea, but that so far none of the recent studies have yet been conclusive enough to decide if this has cataclysmic effects on the Earth’s ecosystem.
- “A major atmospheric effect of polarity transitions is most probably the generation of a natural ozone hole due to enhanced SPE activity. This ozone hole is associated with a strong increase of erythemal weighted surface UV-B flux. .
- “The increase of erythemal weighted surface UV-B flux represents a clear stress on aquatic ecosystems such as phytoplankton populations. Using a simplified model of enhanced UV-B stress on such a population indicates a complex, nonlinear response of the population.
… “We conclude that many further studies on details of the suggested process chain and actual analyses of geologic proxies are necessary before a possible connection following the processes discussed can be confirmed. All recent studies do not yet allow one to decide whether a polarity transition is a cataclysm to the Earth system or not. “
This is an earlier 1980 paper with the same conclusion: Relationship between biological extinctions and geomagnetic reversals
More citations in the wikipedia article here: Geomagnetic reversal
SOLAR STORMS
A really major solar storm will break through our magnetic field whatever, so that’s not particularly to do with magnetic pole reversal.
There's no risk to humans. But there is a risk to the electricity transmission network and to satellites mainly. Ordinary strong solar flares aren't really a problem, there is enough warning and the electricity companies and so on can take measures to protect themselves. Impacts of Strong Solar Flares. We get those every so often, every decade or so.
But then - there's the possibility of a really big solar flare. There was a big solar flare back in Solar storm of 1859. Known as the "Carrington event" after an English astronomer who was observing the sun, saw some huge sunspots, and spotted an intense white flash from the sunspot group. The auroras turned night to day, people could read the newspaper by the auroras. Gold minors in the Rocky Mountains woke up and ate breakfast at 1 a.m. thinking it was sunrise on a cloudy day.
Telegraphs stopped working - and in the USA, some operators disconnected the batteries and found they could send telegrams just using the induced electricity from the storm. See Severe Space Weather Events Telegraph operators also saw sparks leaping from their equipment, some big enough to cause fires. What If the Biggest Solar Storm on Record Happened Today?
So - at the time that was just a curiosity and hardly made any difference to anyone except the telegraph operators and people woken up early by the bright auroras. But if we had a storm like that now, the effects could be huge. We have never had a flare anything like that big since then.
The main effects are:
Basically the power companies need to install monster surge protectors. Solar Storms: What You Need to Ask Your Power Company
And another approach involving adding extra resistors - this amounted to a total cost of the order of $100, million, for an event that could cost trillions (between 0.6 and 2.4 trillion dollars to replace damaged transformers after sch an event according to the Lloyds report) and mean outages of electricity for between 6 days and years. An Inexpensive Fix to "Prevent Armageddon" But Congress didn't pass the bill that was proposed to spend this $100 million on this fix.
I'm not sure of the latest on this. There's a lot about this online but it can be a bit hard to sift the accurate sites from the ones that are a bit over the top and sensationalist.
Blackouts certainly can happen, this is something that actually did happen in Quebec in 1989 You are most vulnerable in the higher latitudes so the North of the US would be the ones who lose power, and the higher latitude countries in Europe. Apparently also more vulnerable if the power lines run above igneous rocks.
"Power systems in areas of igneous rock (gray) are the most vulnerable to the effects of intense geomagnetic activity because the high resistance of the igneous rock encourages geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) to flow in the power transmission lines situated above the rock. "
The Day the Sun Brought Darkness
And - is something you can do something about - ways of protecting the transformers in power grids seem the most important thing to focus on. There's a useful recent discussion here at physicsstackexchange:
Can a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) cause a blackout on Earth and why?
Where one of the answers says that the power network has various unintended protections built in, mainly that if one transformer blows out, the rest in the grid tend to trip rather than blow out too. And that in a study that he and some colleagues did, they found the power grid may be less vulnerable than previously predicted because of these reasons, but satellites that orbit at geostationary orbit, also the middle level orbit GPS satellites may be more vulnerable than previously expected, with many of them, if on the sun side of the Earth (between it's magnetic field and the sun) likely to be destroyed.
"So the most recent idea is that our satellites are very vulnerable but our power grids may not be as vulnerable as we originally thought (though, all of these issues are incredibly difficult to model and predict so take my comments with a grain of salt)."
- see the conversation here: Can a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) cause a blackout on Earth and why?
Any other links on this?
(This is a shortened version of Robert Walker's answer to How often do solar storms occur? Can they hit earth or cause harm to use?)
NO DIFFERENCE IN NUMBERS OF PARTICLES THAT GET DOWN TO GROUND LEVEL
Solar storm particles are too weak to get through the atmosphere at all. Cosmic "rays" actually particles (the name is confusing as they aren't photons or radiation and travel at less than light speed) - they can, but the atmosphere is equivalent to 10 meters thickness of water so only the most energetic can get all the way through.
The loss of magnetic field won't make any difference there as it’s our atmosphere that protects us most (though it would make a big difference to astronauts in the ISS). It increases the number of particles that hit the upper atmosphere, whch is why it can influence the ozone layer and perhaps cloud formation. It also makes magnetic field differences to the surface which is how you can get the effects on long cables such as electricity transmission cables. But it doesn't increase the number of particles that get down to ground level in the atmosphere.
AURORAS
You'd see auroras right down to the equator.
Here is a stunning video of the Aurora Borealis from the ISS in 2012.
And a compilation of various videos of it here
and Aurora Borealis: Why is Antarctic Auroral Oval always off center over the South Pole?
This is identical to my answer to What will happen if the Earth's magnetic poles reverse?
Yes this is on a par with the famous prank that Patrick Moore once carried out on April fools day. He claimed that because of an alignment of the planets that if you jumped in the air you'd feel li...
(more)Yes this is on a par with the famous prank that Patrick Moore once carried out on April fools day. He claimed that because of an alignment of the planets that if you jumped in the air you'd feel lighter at 9.47 am on a particular day when Pluto passed behind Jupiter.
Planetary Alignment Decreases Gravity
Many of his audience did jump in the air and contacted him excitedly saying they did feel lighter at that very moment.
He was doing that to poke fun at the "Jupiter Effect" - a very popular but not hugely scientifically accurate book back in the 1970s.
That's very like this story, so it sounds to me like he's taken the ideas of that book and transplanted it to the 28th - on no scientific basis at all.
What Phil Platt says about it in that story is what any astronomer would say.
The Moon is 50 times stronger than all the other planets put together, in its tidal effects on the Earth. And does the Moon create earthquakes? When aligned with the sun even?
But his alignments aren't even alignments. Not like the 1970s Jupiter effect where the science was poor, but at least the alignments were real alignments. This time, the planets aren't even aligned. Why do such scientifically impossible ideas get so widely accepted and shared?
And he gets it by manipulating a model with hugely enlarged panets, with the planets nearly as big as the sun, and the Moon almost touching the Earth and with the distance between Earth and the Moon on the model not far off the distance from the sun to Mercury. As Phil Platt he doesn't even remark on this.
Screenshot from Phil Platt's article. Notice the hugely enlarged Earth and moon, getting on for the size of the sun, and the distance from Earth to the moon in a sizeable fraction of the distance from sun to mercury - the narrator doesn't seem to realize this, drawing lines through this orrery program. The Earth and moon combined would take up a single pixel on this scale presumably, located around the center of the place where the giant sized Earth is located in this screenshot.
But anyway it is nonsense, gravity isn't beamed from planet to planet like laser beams along lines of alignment :).
The main tidal effects are the tides of the Moon and of the Sun. All the other planets combined, have only a tiny fraction of the effect of the Moon.
To be affected by Jupiter's gravity tidally, we would need to be in a close orbit around it, like its moons Io, Europa, Ganymede and Callisto.
Gravity drops off very quickly, inverse square law, double the distance then a quarter of the gravity, four times the distance then a sixteenth of the gravity and so on. But tidal effects drop off even more rapidly, they vary according to the inverse cube - so for instance four times the distance, then 1/64 of the effect. A hundred times the distance and it is a millionth of the effect.
Even the mighty Jupiter has a tiny effect on Earth, both gravitationally and tidally. Phil Platt's article: No, a Planetary Alignment on May 28 Won’t Cause an Earthquake
You can understand this happening though. I think he is sincere, from the video.
You have lots of people who think they are contacted by spirits, and who then combine various strands of information to come up with particular dates etc.
So with probably millions of people doing these predictions, and dozens of disastrous events happening on the Earth - then at some point then one of those predictions will align with one of those events.
So whenever you get a disaster like the Nepal earthquake, then amongst, say, tens of thousands of people predicting these things, most haven't predicted anything for that date.
But just by chance perhaps a few hundred, different ones each time, find the event exactly fits their prediction. So then those people will become suddenly very convinced that they are onto something, and start predicting other things and posting youtube videos and so on. It's a natural human reaction. We aren't very good at taking an objective view of improbable things that happen to us.
I expect it is something like that.
There is a risk of a big Earthquake in California at some point, yes. May happen some time in the next 30 years or so.
Magnitude 8 or larger. New Long-Term Earthquake Forecast for California (3/10/2015 12:30:00 PM)
They are talking about something like the 1906 San Francisco earthquake.
That really did happen and was hugely devastating. But remember the skyscrapers then weren't as well built to withstand earthquakes in the way modern California skyscrapers are, though they had already designed buildings to be earthquake resistance.
Also 90% of the damage to the structures was due to fires.
"One of the reasons that fatalities in the earthquake were a fraction of one percent of the population and complete collapses were so few is that well before 1906 engineers and architects attempted to build structures with earthquake-resistant features.
"The 1906 fire caused at least ninety percent of the damage to the city and perhaps more. City officials and citizens emphasized the fire in order to receive insurance payments. Ironically, they couldn't over-emphasize the consequences of the fire because a majority of damage was due to the fire. But engineers and architects did learn from the earthquake. They quietly continued to build earthquake-resistant buildings, and put into effect a strong \building code that addressed earthquake danger. After the earthquake, the citizens responded by voting to build a huge water system dedicated to fighting fires, which was earthquake-resistant as well."
Nowadays houses and skyscrapers are much better built than they were then. So that would be a mitigating factor but still it would be devastating and surely many would die.
As for the idea that California would fall into the sea - that's impossible.
One geologist worked out that to have an earthquake that big, you'd need a fault line 6,000 miles long all the way from the pole to the equator, and you would need the entire fault line to slip at once (with all the energy of the slip focused on California). Apart from the improbability of such a vast fault line slipping simultaneously - such a long fault line doesn't exist in our world.
California Geological Survey - EarthquakeDOC
Even major earthquakes like the Nepal one shift the land by meters at most. The Nepal earthquake moved the land upwards by between 1 and 2 meters.
Nepal earthquake may have raised all of Kathmandu by 3 to 6 feet - and moved Katmandu about 3 meters southward Nepal earthquake moves Kathmandu but Everest height unchanged – experts
An interferogram showing vertical displacement of land a result of the April 25 earthquake. Here red = vertical displacement of 2 meters - so a few spots were raised by 2 meters. There were horizontal movements also of a few meters.
He says this about these types of movies in the introduction:
"Whether we view movies as an educational experience or simply entertainment, we all value the ability of movies to help us escape reality for a little while. Sometimes, however, because a movie uses science and technology as a backdrop, the story will be more believable to its viewers, helping them form opinions that might affect their view of reality and, ultimately, the way they live their lives."
"Some moviemakers have relied on a perception of reality that has been fostered over the years by, in many cases, watching other movies. They do this instead of developing equally interesting story lines based on the truth."
California Geological Survey - EarthquakeDOC
I.e. movie makers watching movies that their audience are familiar with so building up a movie based mythology that the audience will go along with because they have been prepared for it by previous movies.
It's a California Collapse - TV Trope
And now we have amateur prophets who have watched movies made by movie makers who have watched other movies who maybe started with some scientific basis which they exaggerated for dramatic effect. And sincerely thinking that something like this might happen. The science behind this and the actual observations and experience we have of earthquakes to back it up has got lost many steps removed.
I’ve now worked this answer up into my post here: Debunked - California could fall into the sea or the Earth split open through earthquakes or continental drift by Robert Walker on Debunking Doomsday
Bob Holmes - one of many amateur astronomers doing follow up observations to work out the orbits of near earth asteroids to find out if any of them are on a course to hit EArth Bob Holmes of the Astronomical Research Institute in Illinois, USA
"Power systems in areas of igneous rock (gray) are the most vulnerable to the effects of intense geomagnetic activity because the high resistance of the igneous rock encourages geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) to flow in the power transmission lines situated above the rock. "
The Day the Sun Brought Darkness
Any other links on this?
"So the most recent idea is that our satellites are very vulnerable but our power grids may not be as vulnerable as we originally thought (though, all of these issues are incredibly difficult to model and predict so take my comments with a grain of salt)."
- see the conversation here: Can a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) cause a blackout on Earth and why?
"Historically the term containing the 'cosmological constant' ƛ was introduced into the field equations in order to enable us to account theoretically for the existence of a finite mean density in a static universe. It now appears that in the dynamical case this end can be reached without the introduction of ƛ."
- full three degrees view, 60 times the diameter, and 3600 times the area of the field of view of Hubble and photographed with a super high resolution a 1.4 gigapixel digital camera. This is what you want for searching for asteroids - wide field of view, lots of photographs, sensitive to low light levels.
To see this image in its full glory go to APOD: 2012 October 12 and then click through to see it full screen. And that's just a fraction of the detail of its original images, which it takes twice a minute, each in enough detail so that if printed at 300 dpi it would cover half a basketball court The 1.4-Gigapixel Camera Standing Between Us and Armageddon
"Most of the NEO Discovery Surveys, including the Catalina Sky survey, Pan-STARRS and Spacewatch provide a substantial number of follow-up observations. Dr. David Tholen, at the University of Hawaii, is particularly efficient in providing the very faint follow-up observations that are often required to prevent small NEOs from being lost.
A substantial number of faint follow-up observations are also made at the Magdalena Ridge Observatory in New Mexico (Bill and Eileen Ryan). Explicit mention should also be made of the prolific number of follow-up observations provided by the Astronomical Research Institute (ARI) under the direction of Robert Holmes and the amateur group at the New Millennium Observatory in Northern Italy."
The new millenium observatory in Italy - run by amateur astronomers - one of the many groups of observers who are involved in the Follow-up Observing Programs to refine the orbits of NEOs. This was built by Luca Cozzi, an engineer, brother of Dr. Elia Cozzi, Italian amateur astronomer and astrophysicist whose idea it was.
That's just to give an example - there are many groups of people and many telescopes world wide involved in this - and as you see - that's an ordinary not that big suburban house in Italy with a telescope built into its roof - the telescopes don't have to be huge monster tens of meters telescopes for this job.
Robert Holmes, amateur astronomer, one of the most prolific follow up observers for the NEO program.
For an idea of some of the other amateur groups involved in the NEO follow up observations see the Planetary Society grants, which they give regularly - to amateur groups who are doing especially good work in this area. See:
Bob Holmes again, this time with one of his telescopes - a wide field of view 0.76 m (30 in) telescope with a sensitive CCD camera purchased with a 2013 grant from the Planetary Society. Bob Holmes of the Astronomical Research Institute in Illinois, USA
Perhaps Earth had patches of open ocean in the tropical regions, or perhaps it was completely covered in ice
Slushball Earth
Possible Snowball Earth models
Dried out tardigrade egg left - able to withstand temperatures from -320 up to 122 degrees Fahrenheit (-195 to 50 C ), vacuum conditions, and 1,690 Grays of radiation.
Water bear (heterotardigrade), in the asphyctic state. See The Water Bear Web Base (monthly internet magazine) - Passing from anhydrobiosis via coma (asphyxis) to active life
Body length ca. 250 µm.However they would also need some food such as algae. And if there are algae on Mars, and lichens, then they may provide the oxygen needed. Some polar and high alpine lichens can survive in the Mars conditions - and the fungal part of the lichen is an aerobe, and it is able to survive in partially shaded conditions in Mars simulation chambers, no problem. So presumably it gets oxygen supplied to it by the algae component of the lichen.
Pleopsidium chlorophanum collected at an altitude of 1492 m above sea level at "Black Ridge" in North Victoria Land, Antarctica. This lichen lives at altitudes of up to 2000 meters in Antarctica.
It can remain active at very low temperatures, down to -20 C and can absorb small amounts of water from snow and ice. In a 34 day experiment, it continued to photosynthesize, and it adapted to Mars conditions and even adapted physiologically by increasing its photosynthetic activity, and producing new growth http://www.researchgate.net/prof...
http://bit.do/44Uk
The purple colour here is a stain, not its natural colour File:Spinoloricus.png - Wikimedia Commons
Phoebe (moon) - example of a retrograde moon of Saturn, thought to be a captured moon. Captured moons tend to have inclined orbits, large radius and usually retrograde.
Those impacts undoubtedly happened in the past.
Impact from 3.8 billion years ago when large asteroid impacts were still common. 3D map of Mars
The Aitken basin at the lunar South pole. It's believed to be over 3.8 billion years but the exact date is hard to pin down. Impact of an asteroid perhaps 170 km in diameter.
The Caloris basin on Mercury.
The Animations Page. Note, SIZES NOT TO SCALE - the asteroids, and also Earth also, are far smaller than they appear to be in this animation. You wouldn't even see the Earth if drawn to scale at this resolution (it would need to be drawn to a resolution of 32,000 pixels to show Earth as a single pixel).
"I couldn't understand how the Chilean controller described us in
Spanish to the airline pilot," he said in the statement. "But I
understood the answer by the pilot: 'Wow.'''
Perlan height record in Argentina
"Article IX: ... States Parties to the Treaty shall pursue studies of outer space, includi...(more)
"Article IX: ... States Parties to the Treaty shall pursue studies of outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, and conduct exploration of them so as to avoid their harmful contamination and also adverse changes in the environment of the Earth resulting from the introduction of extraterrestrial matter and, where necessary, shall adopt appropriate measures for this purpose...
Artist's impression of Landis's rover for the hot surface of Venus (credit NASA)
Calculation of the size of torus, filled with hydrogen, needed to suspend a Soyuz, fueled for lift off, in the Venusian atmosphere next to a cloud colony
Hydrogen is a slightly stronger lifting gas for Venus with denser CO2 atmosphere - and of course no concerns at all of combustion.
Hydrogen has a density of 0.0899 Kg/m3. and Carbon Dioxide, 1.977 kg/ m3, for air it is 1.205 kg / m3
.
So a hydrogen balloon on Venus has lifting power of 1.8871 kg per m3, compared with 1.1151 kg / m3 on Earth
To counteract the mass of a fully fueled Soyuz - lift off mass lift off mass 308 metric tons (not sure of lift off mass for the latest TMA-M), then you would need 308,000/ 1.8871 = 163,213 m^3
That could be more than supplied by a torus filled with hydrogen with radius 50 meters and with the radius of the tube around 14 meters. Volume 193444 m3. Lifting capacity 365 tons.
Surface area 27634 m2, so if you had fabric weighing 1 kg / m2 that's 28 tons for the fabric
As a bonus, if we make the torus able to expand to a larger size, like a weather balloon, then it could lift the Soyuz high into the Venus atmosphere before take-off.
So for example, suppose it's a 100 meter radius balloon.
r = 100 m
V = 4188790 m3
A = 125664 m2
C = 628.319 m
works out at Max 2,094 tonnes total, and Max 16.5 kg per square meter of surface area.
Assuming 1 kg / m2 for the fabric, that's 126 tons of fabric
If you go up to a cloud nine like 1000 meter radius you get 2,094,395 tons total, and 165 kg per square meter of surface area.
r = 64 m
V = 1098070 m3
A = 51471.9 m2
C = 402.124 m
Max payload 549 tons. Max 10 kg per m2.
51 tons of fabric
For a smaller start up colony
r = 29 m
V = 102160 m3
A = 10568.3 m2
C = 182.212 m
Max payload 51 tons, Max 5 kg / m2.
11 tons of fabric.
(if you want to do more of these, the online Sphere Calculator may save a bit of time).
Inside a black hole, nothing can hold together. At the "event horizon" then something traveling the speed of light can stay there, anything else falls in further. But within the black hole, even li...
(more)Inside a black hole, nothing can hold together. At the "event horizon" then something traveling the speed of light can stay there, anything else falls in further. But within the black hole, even light collapses to the center and can't escape.
So there is no surface, you just keep falling and falling. Anything whether stationary or moving, even a light beam moving at the speed of light away from the center, is still on an inevitable trajectory towards the center of the black hole.
However for really big black holes, then crossing the event horizon can be quite a gentle process. You are doomed at that point, there, is no way you can get back out again, but you don't notice it for a while later
Example here BLACK HOLES by Ted Bunn where he says that if you started, say, from a distance of ten times the black hole's radius, for a million solar mass black hole, then it would take 8 minutes to reach the horizon, and then, only another seven seconds to hit the singularity at the center. But you'd survive for a short while over the horizon.
For a truly gigantic super cluster of galaxies mass black hole, then you could fall for some time before you hit the center.
As to what is in the center - well it's a mathematical point. So it is theoretically of no size at all. Everything just ends up being a single point.
What that means "physically" goodness knows. How can a mathematical point have a mass of a million suns? And how does it differ from a mathematical point with a mass of a single sun?
It's quite a crazy kind of an idea when you try to make sense of it intuitively and try to connect it to intuitive ideas of matter.
Though mathematically it seems to make sense apparently.
We don't need to develop a detailed physics for what happens inside the black hole, because in our universe all we ever know about it is what we can see from outside. And as seen from outside, a black hole has only three properties - its mass, its charge, and its spin rate and direction of spin axis.
Once you know those three things (plus of course its position and velocity in space) you know everything you can possibly ever discover about the black hole. All you can do after that is to add a few more decimal points to your measurements of those properties.
So they are the simplest objects to describe in the entire universe. See Black Holes and Neutron Stars
Everything else is hidden behind the event horizon - because nothing can escape from it.
Spinning black holes however have some interesting properties - these are the so called Kerr Black Holes.
If a black hole spins fast enough, then its event horizon gets smaller - and in very special circumstances, you may get a so called Naked singularity which would then make it possible to actually observe an infinitely dense mathematical point of mass in our universe.
In 1994 Mathew Choptuik showed that you can, theoretically, get a naked singularity forming during rather special conditions - the perfectly spherical collapse of a rotating black hole.
His paper is here: "Examples of Naked Singularity Formation in the Gravitational Collapse of a Scalar Field,"
See What's so scandalous about a naked singularity?
Though whether those special conditions can occur in reality is another question. Roger Penrose's Cosmic Censorship Conjecture hypothesizes that they never can be seen in our universe - that naked singularities can't exist but are always hidden behind an event horizon.
Some people wonder if black holes really exist in our universe, and there are Black hole Alternatives to explain some of the observations - or it might be that the rules of physics can be changed so that they are not quite what they seem to us to be.
See also Chris Craddock's comment to this answer - he makes some interesting points :).
You can get this and many more of my answers now as a kindle book:
Simple Questions - Surprising Answers - In Astronomy
COULD WE EVER PROVE WE HAVE FOUND A BLACK HOLE?
if we had a black hole that we could study close up, we could drop matter into it, and see it disappear below the event horizon. If it was small we could spot Hawking radiation. We could drop a torch into it and see the light red shift as it falls towards the center. We could map the geometry of the space around the black hole.
None of that would actually prove that what we have inside is a single mathematical point with properties such as stellar mass, charge and a spin rate (how can a dimensionless point spin?) But it would prove that it looks like a black hole as far as the event horizon.
Also black holes as we understand them are a prediction of general relativity. But we know that GR is not the final answer because it is inconsistent with quantum mechanics, indeed the theory has no explanation of how matter is possible at all, just assumes its existence.
So in that sense, what we observe can't really be black holes in the sense of General Relativity - so what are they really? Perhaps the paradoxical seeming idea of a black hole as a mathematical point with mass, spin and charge just results because of this incomplete nature of GR, and because they aren’t really black holes in that sense. General Relativity is probably an approximation just as Newton Gravity was an approximation to GR. But a very very accurate approximation.
The alternatives for a stellar mass black hole involve some form of exotic matter able to resist collapse. Alternatives for a supermassive black hole would involve large masses orbiting each other perhaps.
It could also be that the theory of gravity has to be modified in some way. For instance quantum gravity leads to the elegant idea of a Planck star - ordinary stellar sized black holes would "rebound" before they can get small enough to be a black hole, but the rebound from seen from outside would outlast the age of the universe so far so that it would seem like a black hole to us.
We can only observe very distant black hole candidates. I think the most interesting evidence perhaps is the faintness of the accretion disk around an X ray binary during quiescence - as it seems to prove that there is no solid surface for the matter to land on. But even so - that's hardly very direct evidence. And if it was, say, a Planck star, would that not maybe have a similar signature?
Largest discovered meteorite fragment at Meteor Crater
Sphaeroeca, a colony of choanoflagellatesapprox. 230 individuals), in light microscopy. File:Sphaeroeca-colony.jpg - Wikimedia Commons
almost any kind of present day living creature, even something as microscopic as this, may be the ancestor of the creatures with technology of that far future that will face this problem.
Let's see, we can work this out from the albedo of the Moon, and the intensity of moonlight.
First it would be easy to arrange this by mega engineering, if we had a Moon a little larger than our Ear...
(more)Let's see, we can work this out from the albedo of the Moon, and the intensity of moonlight.
First it would be easy to arrange this by mega engineering, if we had a Moon a little larger than our Earth, because the same amount of sunlight falls on an Earth sized Moon as on Earth.
Cover the near hemisphere with motorized flat mirrors, angled to reflect almost all of its sunlight to Earth. Then, at times of full Moon, we would get as much sunlight from the Moon as we do from the midday sun, and so, the full Moon at midnight would be as bright as the sun. We need to set the mirrors to auto track the Earth, otherwise this would only work for a brief moment in its orbit.
That's a bit like the 1977 idea of Lunetta, a system of many bright mirrors in space all angled to light up a particular spot on the Earth, e.g. in the Siberian winter in Russia.
The 1977 Lunetta idea. The Russians explored a similar idea with their Znamaya 2 mirror in 1993
The same idea has been used to reflect sunlight into villages hidden in the darkness of a deep valley - the Italian town of Viganella, and the Norwegian town of Rjukan
Rjukan in Norway, hidden in a deep valley, it never gets direct sunlight in winter. An autotracking mirror now reflects sunlight from the valley rim to a bright spot in the middle of its village square.
If our Moon was a bit larger than Earth and covered in auto tracking mirrors like this, it would be as bright as the sun in our sky.
The more interesting question is, what about a natural moon not covered in mirrors. How bright can it be? Can a natural moon be as bright as the sun?
So, let's see... We can work this out from the albedo of the Moon, and the intensity of moonlight.
It's best to use the geometric albedos of planets and moons here, as that will simplify the calculations. It's the ratio of the brightness of a celestial body to the brightness of an idealised flat disk.
Geometric albedo examples (lists albedos of some of the planets and moons)
For the distance to the Moon I'll use the average distance, of 384,400 km.
LET'S TRY VENUS
Venus is one of the brighter objects in our solar system, and its quite large, nearly as large as Earth, so it seems like a good starting point. We know it can't be as bright as the sun, from the mirror tracking Moon example, but how bright can it be?
Here is the calculation, for maths geeks, indented, so that it is easy for everyone else to skip.
Our Moon has a geometric albedo of 0.12. So, actually, lunar rocks and soil are quite dark, about as dark as a typical worn asphalt road. It looks so bright in our sky because it's always lit by full sunlight. Also, especially at night, it is set against a dark sky.
Venus has a geometric albedo of 0.67, or as bright as snow, much brighter than the Moon. It's also larger.
Moon's diameter 3,476 kilometers
Venus' diameter 12,104 kilometers.So the visual disk is increased in area by (12,104/3,476)2 and the albedo increased by 0.67/0.12. So the strength of the moonlight is increased by (12,104/3,476)2*(0.67/0.12)
(Click on the link to show the calculation in Google calculator)
So Venus would be about 68 time brighter than the moon if you replaced our Moon by Venus.
HOW MUCH DO WE NEED TO INCREASE THE BRIGHTNESS OF THE MOON BY?
Sadly sixty-eight times brighter than the Moon is not enough to make much of a difference, because the brightness of moonlight is only 0.1 lux, increasing to 0.26 lux at the tropics - see Moonlight. Sunlight ranges from 32,000 lux upwards to 100,000 Lux
So we need to increase the intensity of the moonlight 385,000 times to get the full moonlight in the tropics as bright as direct sunlight.
Light from Venus, in the place of the Moon, would have a brightness of 0.26*68 or 18 lux. That's quite bright, compare 40 lux for typical indoor lighting of a home. But nowhere near the brightness of daylight.
In all this we are not taking account of radiation in other wavelengths, such as infrared, just visible light. So we should do all our calculations using units of illuminance, such as the Lux.
HOW BIG SHOULD OUR "MOON" BE THEN?
So how big would Venus need to be to do the trick? Well as Venus was 68 times brighter than the Moon, and we need to get it 385,000 times brighter - then it needs to be (385,000/68) or about 5,700 times brighter very roughly. Or about 75 times larger in diameter. (sqrt(5,700) )
Jupiter is only 12 times wider than Venus, and what's more, it has a lower geometric albedo. So it's not going to work to use Jupiter at the distance of the Moon. But let's do the calculation anyway and see how bright it would be.
Of course by now, Earth is orbiting Jupiter rather than the other way around. Strictly speaking we are a moon of Jupiter. But for us, Jupiter looks like a Moon in our sky..
LET'S TRY JUPITER
Let's try Jupiter at the distance of the Moon.
How bright is it?
Albedo 0.52 (from Geometric albedo)
Diameter 142,984 kmSo now, our calculation for the increase in the brightness of moonlight is 0.26*(142,984/3,476)2*(0.52/0.12).
(Where, as before, 0.26 is the brightness of the tropics full Moon, in lux, 3,476 is its diameter in kilometers, and 0.12 is its albedo).
or 1,906 lux
That's as bright as an overcast day, or studio lighting. So we are getting there.
To make it brighter, we can bring Jupiter closer to Earth. The area, and so the brightness, goes up rapidly, as the inverse square of the distance.
So, let's see how close Jupiter would need to be to Earth to have the same illumination as the sun.
ROCHE LIMIT
There is a limit to how close we can be to Jupiter, because if we are too close, Earth will be torn apart by tidal effects.
Any satellite that orbits within the Roche limit is torn apart by tides (probably to form a ring system).
Jupiter's closest moon is Metis (moon)
Metis, orbits with period of 7 hours minutes, faster than Jupiter's day of 9h 56m so it is being pulled inwards rather than outwards by tidal interactions and will eventually hit Jupiter. It's elongated by tidal forces as you see in this image and within the fluid Roche limit of Jupiter but must be outside its rigid Roche limit as it hasn't broken up
So how close can it be?
The Roche limit (for "fluid" satellites, which Earth counts as because the rocks are not nearly strong enough to hold it together against tidal forces of gravity) is
(D = density of parent, d = density of satellite)
If our Moon has a similar density to Earth, we can ignore the cube root as D = d, so then it becomes a simple result.
If its density is similar to Earth, then it can't orbit it closer than 2.44 times Earth's radius.
Jupiter however has a density of only 1.33 g/cm3 and Earth's is 5.51 g/cm3 so Earth can orbit rather closer than that without getting torn apart by tides. Jupiter's radius is 69,911 km.
So putting those numbers into our equation, Earth could orbit 2.44 * 69,911 * cube root (1.33/5.51) km from Jupiter
Or 106,211 km from Jupiter (distance from its centre). We'd be orbiting closer to Jupiter than its innermost moon Metis (which orbits it a distance of around 128,000 km). Earth would be seriously tidally stretched, but would survive as a planet.
So how bright is Jupiter if we orbit as close as that, only 106,211 kilometers away?
For closely orbiting planets, it's not accurate enough to just estimate the increase in brightness using the inverse square of the distance. The near side of the planet will be a lot closer than that and will fill much more of the sky.
We need to use the area subtended by a sphere to do this accurately. I'll indent this calculation so you can skip it easily if not interested in the details:
The exact formula is that the solid angle is 2 * PI * (1-sqrt(r2 - R2)/r) for r > R where r is the distance from the center of the planet and R is its radius. See Solid angles subtended by rotary solids at a point.
So we need to use the ratios of the solid angles at r = 106,210 km and at r = 384,400 km (distance of the Moon), where R (Jupiter's radius) = 69,911 km. The 2*PI will cancel so can ignore it when we take the ratio.
Using the solid angles formula, then its brightness increases from 1906 lux to
1906 * (1-sqrt( 106,2102 - 69,9112) / 106,210)/( (1-sqrt(384,4002 - 69,9112)/384,400))
Or, 28,250 lux
That is for Jupiter with its usual geometric albedo of 0.52. If it had the same surface brightness as Venus, then its brightness would be (0.67/0.52)*28,250 or about 36,400 lux.
This is well into the lower range for the brightness of full sunlight, of 32,000 to 100,000 lux.
What about a larger planet?
LARGEST EXOPLANET - LET'S TRY WASP-17b
What if it is less dense than Jupiter Here is the largest exoplanet discovered
First, as for Jupiter, we need to work out how closely Earth can orbit it safely.
The figures in that report are given relative to Jupiter. Its radius is 1.991 times the radius of Jupiter, which makes it 1.991*69,911 km, so roughly 140,000 km. So, its diameter is around 280,000 km.
Its density is 0.486 times the density of Jupiter so from Jupiter's density, that's 0.486*1.33. or about 0.65.
Earth's density d is 5.51 g/cm3
So its Roche limit for Earth is 2.44 * radius * cube root (ratio of densities)
= 2.44 * 140,000 * cube root (0.65/5.51)
= 167,500 km.
So we could orbit WASP-17b at less than half the distance to the Moon and not be torn apart. Indeed we'd be skimming just 27,500 km above its surface, at the Roche limit.
First, let's just leave it at the Moon's distance for simplicity.
The only thing is I don't know how bright it is, its geometrical albedo - we could probably calculate that from its distance and magnitude. But meanwhile let's just suppose it is the same as Venus.
Then we get its brightness at the distance of the Moon
as 0.26*(280,000/3,476)2*(0.67/0.12)
(same formula as before, 0.26 is the brightness of the tropics full Moon in lux, 3,476 is its diameter in km, and 0.12 is its albedo - here 280,000 is the approximate diameter of WASP-17b).
Or about 9,419 Lux. So that's about the same brightness as full daylight but not direct sunlight. Its brighter than an overcast day. Radiometry and photometry in astronomy
So - that's actually not as bright as a close orbit around Jupiter. On the other hand it is probably safer to orbit at some distance from a giant planet, less likely to be fried by fierce electromagnetic radiation perhaps.
We can estimate its visual diameter from the visual diameter of the Moon of 0.5 degrees, as (278,385 / 3,476)*0.5 or about 40 degrees.
So it would fill a large part of the sky.
Coincidentally its diameter of 280,000 km is roughly the same as the diameter of Saturn's ring system 270,000 km.
The last image in this sequence gives an idea of what it would be like to replace our Moon by the largest known exoplanet. Imagine a planet as wide in diameter as Saturn is in this video, and you've got it.
If we bring it closer, to the Roche limit for Earth - as close as we can get it without the Earth breaking up, again we need to use solid angles as for Jupiter, and as before, lets indent the calculation:
Solid angle = 2 * PI * (1-sqrt(r2 - R2)/r) for r > R where r is the distance from the center of the planet and R is is radius (by the formula for the solid angle of a sphere subtended at a point).
So we need to use the ratios of the solid angles at r = 167,500 km and at r = 384,400 km (distance to the Moon), where R (WASP-15b's radius) = 140,000 km. Using the solid angles formula, then its brightness increases from 9,419 lux to
9,419* (1-sqrt( 167,5002 - 140,000 2) / 167,500)/( (1-sqrt(384,4002 - 140,000 2)/384,400))
Or, about 61,850 lux. A fair bit brighter than Jupiter and close to the midday tropical sun at 100,000 lux.
How large would it look in the sky?
Its solid angle is 2*PI*(1-sqrt(167,5002 - 140,0002)/167,500), or about 2.834 radians. Converting that to the angle subtended (details of how they are related here), that's
2*acos(1-2.8337/(2*PI)) = 1.979 radians,
or in degrees, about 113 degrees.
So it would pretty much fill the entire sky, as expected since we are skimming just 27,500 km above its surface.
Only thing is, that the Earth will cast a significant shadow on it, at every "full Moon" probably, which is hard to calculate.
It will probably also have significant limb darkening as seen from Earth.
And Earth would be tidally locked to it, so only one hemisphere would see this bright Moon in our sky.
Anyway - as a rough estimate it seems we have pretty much achieved our goal.
We can also work out the orbital period of Earth around the planet.
Its mass, at 0.486 Jupiters is about 0.992e+27 kg (where e+27 means its multiplied by 1027, I show it in that notation so you can copy / paste it into the online calculator),
so entering this number for the mass of the "sun" into this calculator, and using the Semimajor axis as semimajor axis 165500 km, and mass of the "planet" as one Earth.
We get a period of 14.6601 hours
TYPICAL DAY ON A TIDALLY LOCKED EARTH CLOSELY ORBITING A SUPER JUPITER IN ITS SKY
If you lived on the Super Jupiter facing side, then it is fixed in position in the middle of the sky above your head, day and night, pretty much filling your sky, and you'd get this sequence, starting from midday:
1. Midday. Super Jupiter is not visible in the midday sky because it is in "new moon phase". But around midday every day, you'd get a long eclipse with the sun hidden behind Super Jupiter. So that would be the only time of darkness in the day. That's the only time when you'd be able to see the stars, though they'd be partly blocked by a big black patch in the centre of your sky in the direction of the Super Jupiter. If you are in that close orbit around Wasp-15b, the black patch would nearly fill the sky and you'd only see stars within 34 degrees of the horizon.
2, As the sun sets, Super Jupiter catches the sunlight and gets brighter. When the sun dips below the horizon Jupiter is already at first quarter, so it is half lit, and you already get full daylight from it, nearly as bright as a midday tropical sun.
3, At midnight you get "full Super Jupiter" (every "night") - but as midnight approaches, the shadow of the Earth would move across Jupiter and at midnight exactly, this shadow would be directly overhead. So, you'd get a dip in brightness at that moment. Since it is so close, this dark patch would be a large one. Though the edges of the Super Jupiter itself would still be bright around the horizon, as our shadow only shades a spot in the center.
4. Then after that the Super Jupiter wanes and the sun rises.
That whole cycle repeats every orbital period, every fourteen hours forty minutes approximately in the case of Wasp-15b, with darkness only at midday during the long solar eclipse you get every day.
On the other side of the Earth facing away from Super Jupiter, you would get no light from it at all. You just get a fourteen hour forty minutes day with the sun rising and setting normally.
Let's look briefly at other ways of doing it now. If our "Moon" had rings, it could be even brighter.
A "MOON" WITH RINGS
Those would have no effect on the Earth's Roche limit as they are of negligible mass compared to the planet (or "Moon") itself.
Saturn varies in brightness by about 0.9 magnitudes for different oppositions (times when it is closest to Earth) depending on whether its rings are open or closed. So the Saturn rings, when open, more than double the brightness of the planet. It's about 2.29 times brighter when the rings are fully open (using the formula for magnitudes, as 2.510.9 = 2.29 ). At those times, Saturn is tilted by 27 degrees.
If it was like this giant ring system, 200 times larger than Saturn it would have a larger effect:
This is an artist's impression of the giant ring system Super-Saturn J1407b - "Super Saturn" Has an Enormous Ring System and Maybe Even Exomoons - 200 times larger than Saturn's ring system, 120 million kilometers Super-Saturn J1407b Hosts Massive Ring System, Astronomers Say
However this is a very young system in process of forming satellites, its sun is just 16 millions years old. Faraway planet J1407b is lord of the rings. So the rings will probably dissipate as the moons form.
Rings like this would surely have a huge effect if they filled our sky. The only problem is though, that our orbit would most likely be in the ring plane.
It would help if we were on a ring crossing orbit, and as perpendicular to the rings as possible. Saturn does have some moons in highly inclined orbits.
But they tend to be further away.
As a large planet orbiting close to the ringed planet, we would probably orbit in the same plane as the rings. So we wouldn't get much sunlight reflected.
AREA OF SKY TO COVER TO GET SAME BRIGHTNESS AS FULL SUNLIGHT
If we assume the rings are as bright as they possibly could be pretty much - as bright as Venus, and we are in a polar orbit over the poles, and the sun is directly behind us shining on the rings, then we can do the calculation, this would be the brightest they get, twice a year.
For 32,000 Lux then we need 32,000/8,338 or 3.8 times as much visual area of the sky as WASP-17b. So diameter is sqrt(100,000/8,338) *278,385 = 542,672 kilometers, and it would span (542,672 /3,476)*0.5 or 78 degrees of the sky.
Or for the 100,000 Lux - bright sunlight with sun overhead in tropics - then its sqrt(100,000/8,338) *278,385 or 964,084. Visual diameter when we are opposite the ring system: (964,084 /3,476)*0.5 or about 139 degrees
So (if I've got these calculations right) an almost opaque ring system a million kilometers in diameter like J1407b would give us similar illumination to direct sunlight, and meanwhile it would pretty much fill the sky when overhead.
But a ring system as large as that would probably be a young system like J1407b and would soon form satellites and dissipate over geological timescales.
GRAVITATIONALLY LOCKED BINARY PLANET
(Image NASA) Are Habitable Binary Planets Possible? : DNews - 'Double Earths' Could Be Fun Exoplanets To Hunt For -- If They Exist
see: Can binary terrestrial planets exist?
Explored fictionally in Robert Forward's "Rocheworld"
If the two planets are gravitationally locked to each other, in the same way as Pluto and Charon, then the tidal effects no longer matter.
They are just permanently distorted. You can even have an Earth sized planet almost touching our Earth - even with a shared atmosphere and ocean in principle
We don't know any contact binary planets, but many contact binary stars are known, and including "overcontact binaries" that are so close together that their atmospheres overlap - the first discovered W Ursae Majoris.
from: Chapter 19-7
see Contact Binaries
So the "Roche world" scenario certainly seems physically possible.
So in that case, well forget about all those limitations. It could be as big as Jupiter and only 69,911 kms away. If we and Jupiter are tidally locked, then no problem.
In a contact or over contact binary, then if you lived close to the contact point, the other planet would fill your entire sky. On the other hand at midday, as we saw before, indeed for much of the day, every day, our "Moon" would eclipse the sun.
So, the calculations get more complicated to figure it out exactly - how bright it would be at all times of the day at various distances from the contact point.
For instance if you lived right at the contact point, you'd only see the sun at sunrise and sunset, and the rest of the time it would be hidden behind both planets, and whichever planet it wasn't illuminating would be in eclipse.
In that situation, your main illumination would be at "night" when the sun would illuminate the opposite planet around your horizon.
So someone would need to do a proper detailed analysis of this. But it seems likely that with a contact binary with the other planet filling your sky, there would be places close to the contact point and times of day when it was even brighter than for our Wasp-15b calculation.
We can work out the orbital periods easily though.
Io orbits Jupiter at a distance of 420,000 km in 42.5 hours .
By Kepler's third law,
(42.5)^2/(420,000 )^3 = P^2/(69,911)^3
so if Earth was orbiting Jupiter so close that it touches it, it's period would be
P = sqrt((69,911)^3*(42.5)^2/(420,000 )^3)
= 2.89 hours
So if Earth was a contact binary with Jupiter, it's orbital period and Jupiter's rotation period would both be 2.89 hours.
Let's now try a Roche world scenario using Earth with WASP-17b.
It has half the mass of Jupiter and twice the radius. So we'd orbit it at twice that distance, so that gives us sqrt((2*69,911)^3*(42.5)^2/(420,000 )^3) or 8.1635 hours for the period. But then half the mass, makes it slower by sqrt(1/0.486) (period squared is inversely proportional to the mass of the star) so that's 11.71 hours (see Gravity Applications (for the derivation of formula for orbital period))
So, now we have a much longer orbital period of nearly 12 hours instead of under 3 hours.
So if we were orbiting WASP-17b, with us and WASP-17b both tidally locked, and WASP-17b had a day of 11.71 hours - a little under 12 hours - then that would be stable, and we wouldn't be ripped apart.
Then the side of Earth towards it would get cycles of brightness all the way to full sunlight equivalent and then down to none every twelve hours. And it would be a planet with a constantly changing phase fixed in position in the sky - and the sun would set every six hours approx.
A PLANET THAT LIGHT'S UP ITS OWN SKY
It's possible in principle to get a planet that takes up non convex shapes, if it spins fast enough. If so then you might get your planet appearing in its own sky.
For instance if a planet spins fast enough, it can take many different shapes theoretically, including a donut shaped planet.
You can also get donut shaped solutions for end state of a collapsing gas cloud (so also in principle young stars could be toriodal): 1992ApJ...401..618N Page 618
So, though it may seem unlikely, still, doesn't seem you can rule out a donut shaped planet. (Or for that matter maybe such a planet created artificially by some ETI with mega technology)
If you lived near the hole in the donut in a donut shaped Earth you'd get a lot of reflected light from the planet itself
And it could have moons also adding to the brightness:
Just mentioning it for completeness. As we don't know of any planets shaped like this and it would probably need very rare and unusual conditions to create one, perhaps we can leave it for now.
Anders Sandberg's fun article explores many aspects of life on a donut shaped planet - and the orbits of satellites and moons around such a planet.
What would the Earth be like if it was the shape of a donut?
See also: Robert Walker's answer to How and why are planets spherical? What makes them round?
HABITABLE ZONE
So anyway that's an interesting thought. What about a moon orbiting a big gas giant like WASP-17b just outside the habitable zone. It might get a fair amount of light from the gas giant - not quite as much as comes from its sun but getting on for it. I wonder if that extends the habitable zone outwards for moons of gas giants? I think it would, slightly,
COMMENT IF YOU FIND ANY MISTAKES IN THIS "BACK OF THE ENVELOPE" CALCULATION
This is just a first rough calculation, if you spot any mistakes in this calculation do say!
I found one immediately after writing, first attempt I thought WASP-17b would be as bright as direct sunlight, but turns out it is brighter than an overcast day but not as bright as direct sunlight if I got this right.
Then after another calculation, I found it can be moved closer to the Earth than I'd thought without disrupting it, making it as bright as the sun after all.
I wrote this up for my science blog on Science20 here:
Can A Planet's Moon Be As Bright As Its Sun?
And you can also get this and many more of my answers now as a kindle book:
Researchers have found that Homo heidelbergensis was only slightly taller than the Neanderthal (SINC / José Antonio Peñas) see Scientists Determine Height of Homo Heidelbergensis
Here Homo heidelbergensis may be ancestor to Neanderthal and
Cro-Magnon
(modern homo sapiens sapiens), and we also have Neanderthal DNA so there was interbreeding between them as well, complicating the picture.
This image may identify one of the parachutes of Beagle 2 which has remained undisturbed on the surface for about a decade. You wouldn't expect it to be moved by the Martian winds as they are just too weak for this.Beagle 2 spacecraft found intact on surface of Mars after 11 years
Advancing Dune in Nili Patera, Mars. Back-and-forth blinking of this two-image animation shows movement of a sand dune on Mars. This discovery shows that entire dunes as thick as 200 feet (61 meters) are moving as coherent units across the Martian landscape. The sand dunes move at about the same flux (volume per time) dunes in Antarctica. This was unexpected because of the thin air and the winds which are weaker than Earth winds. It may be due to "saltation" - balistic movement of sand grains which travel further in the weaker Mars gravity. See NASA Spacecraft Detects Changes in Martian Sand Dunes - Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter
The lee fronts of the dunes in this region move on average 0.5 meters per years (though the selection may be biased here as they only measured dunes with clear lee edges to measure) and the ripples move on average 0.1 meters per year.
The IAU frequently receives requests from individuals who want to buy stars or name stars after other persons. Some commercial enterprises purport to offer such services for a fee. However, such "names" have no formal or official validity whatever: A few bright stars have ancient, traditional Arabic names, but otherwise stars have just catalogue numbers and positions on the sky. Similar rules on "buying" names apply to star clusters and galaxies as well. For bodies in the Solar System , special procedures for assigning official names apply (see the IAU theme "Naming Astronomical Objects"), but in no case are commercial transactions involved
...
Thus, like true love and many other of the best things in human life, the beauty of the night sky is not for sale, but is free for all to enjoy. True, the 'gift' of a star may open someone's eyes to the beauty of the night sky. This is indeed a worthy goal, but it does not justify deceiving people into believing that real star names can be bought like any other commodity. Despite some misleading hype several companies compete in this business, both nationally and internationally. And already in our own Milky Way there may be millions of stars with planets whose inhabitants have equal or better rights than we to name 'their' star, just as humans have done with the Sun (which of course itself has different names in different languages).
"They orbit at distances between five and 10 times as far from Earth as the moon. Most stay in orbit less than a year, although some stay much longer. One object in the team's simulations stayed in orbit for almost 900 years."
"Erdös was a childhood prodigy who became a famous (and famously eccentric) mathematician. He is best known for work in combinatorics (especially Ramsey Theory) and partition calculus, but made contributions across a very broad range of mathematics, including graph theory, analytic number theory, probabilistic methods, and approximation theory. He is regarded as the second most prolific mathematician in history, behind only Euler."
The Thirty Greatest Mathematicians
Orbit times (by Unitsphere )
t was notable as the first such body to be observed and tracked prior to reaching Earth.[6] The process of detecting and tracking a near-Earth object, an effort sometimes referred to as Spaceguard, was put to the test. In total, 586 astrometric and almost as many photometric observations were performed by 27 amateur and professional observers in less than 19 hours and reported to the Minor Planet Center, which issued 25 Minor Planet Electronic Circulars with new orbit solutions in eleven hours as observations poured in. On October 7, 01:49 UTC,[9] the asteroid entered the shadow of the Earth, which made further observations impossible.
- full three degrees view, 60 times the diameter, and 3600 times the area of the field of view of Hubble and photographed with a super high resolution a 1.4 gigapixel digital camera. This is what you want for searching for asteroids - wide field of view, lots of photographs, sensitive to low light levels.
To see this image in its full glory go to APOD: 2012 October 12 and then click through to see it full screen. And that's just a fraction of the detail of its original images, which it takes twice a minute, each in enough detail so that if printed at 300 dpi it would cover half a basketball court The 1.4-Gigapixel Camera Standing Between Us and Armageddon
"Most of the NEO Discovery Surveys, including the Catalina Sky survey, Pan-STARRS and Spacewatch provide a substantial number of follow-up observations. Dr. David Tholen, at the University of Hawaii, is particularly efficient in providing the very faint follow-up observations that are often required to prevent small NEOs from being lost.
A substantial number of faint follow-up observations are also made at the Magdalena Ridge Observatory in New Mexico (Bill and Eileen Ryan). Explicit mention should also be made of the prolific number of follow-up observations provided by the Astronomical Research Institute (ARI) under the direction of Robert Holmes and the amateur group at the New Millennium Observatory in Northern Italy."
The new millenium observatory in Italy - run by amateur astronomers - one of the many groups of observers who are involved in the Follow-up Observing Programs to refine the orbits of NEOs. This was built by Luca Cozzi, an engineer, brother of Dr. Elia Cozzi, Italian amateur astronomer and astrophysicist whose idea it was.
That's just to give an example - there are many groups of people and many telescopes world wide involved in this - and as you see - that's an ordinary not that big suburban house in Italy with a telescope built into its roof - the telescopes don't have to be huge monster tens of meters telescopes for this job.
Robert Holmes, amateur astronomer, one of the most prolific follow up observers for the NEO program.
For an idea of some of the other amateur groups involved in the NEO follow up observations see the Planetary Society grants, which they give regularly - to amateur groups who are doing especially good work in this area. See:
Bob Holmes again, this time with one of his telescopes - a wide field of view 0.76 m (30 in) telescope with a sensitive CCD camera purchased with a 2013 grant from the Planetary Society. Bob Holmes of the Astronomical Research Institute in Illinois, USA
Bios-3.
"Show me the precious Ring!" he said suddenly in the midst of the story; and Frodo, to his own astonishment, drew out the chain from his pocket, and unfastening the Ring handed it at once to Tom.
It seemed to grow larger as it lay for a moment on his big brown-skinned hand. Then suddenly he put it to his eye and laughed. For a second the hobbits had a vision, both comical and alarming, of his bright blue eye gleaming through a circl of gold. tghen Tom put the Ring round the end of his little finger and held it up to the candlelight. For a moment the hobbits noticed nothing strange about this. Then they gasped. There was no sign of Tom disappearing!
Tom laughed again, and then he spun the Ring in the air - and it vanished with a flash. Frodo gave a cry – and Tom leaned forward and handed it back to him with a smile.
Frodo looked at it closely, and rather suspiciously (like one who has lent a trinket to a juggler). It was teh same Ring, or looked the same and weighed the same: for the Ring had always seemed to Frodo to weight strangely heavy in the hand. But soemthing prompted him to make sure. He was perhaps a trifle annoyed with Tom for seeming to make so light of what even Gandalf thought so perilously important. he waited for an opportunity, when the talk was going again, and Tom was telling an absurd story about badgers, and their queer ways then he slipped the Ring on.
Merry turned towards him to say something and gave a start, and checked an exclamation. Frodo was delighted (in a way): it was his own rign all right, for Merry was staring blankly at his chair, and obviously could not see him. He got up, and crept quietly away from the fireside towards the outer door.
"Hey there!" cried Tom, glancing towards him with a most seeing look in his shining eyes. "Hey! Come Frodo, there! Where be you a-going? Old Tom Bombadil's not as blind as that yet. Take off your golden ring! Your hand's more fair without it. Come back! Leave your game and sit down beside me! We must talk a while more, and think about the morning. Tom must teach the right road, and keep your feet from wandering.
The Lord of the Rings
"I might put it this way. The story is cast in terms of a good side,
and a bad side . . . but both sides in some degree, conservative or destructive, want a measure of control. but if you have, as it were,
taken „a vow of poverty‟, renounced control, and take delight in
things for themselves without reference to yourself, watching, observing, and to some extent knowing, then the question of the rights and wrongs of power and control might become utterly meaningless to you, and the means of power quite valueless. It is a natural pacifist view, which always arises in the mind where thereis no war. "
"In a tale in which every character seems to get dragged into the RingSee: He Is: Tom Bombadil and his function in The Lord of the Rings
quest in some way, the text uses Tom the “natural pacifist” to remind the hobbits that there are parts of Middle-earth not consumed with anxiety over Sauron and the Ring, that there is more to Middle-earth than the struggle surrounding Sauron‟ s creation."
Free climbing by Dan Osman (who died in 1998 as a result of an accident involving "rope jumping" - controlled freefall jumping with a rope - which broke)
That one's got eight photographs of the way it develops over an entire year (and that's a lot, usually is just four or five photographs taken of an interesting feature like this). It would be great if we could have video frames every day of a feature like this :). Also may vary during the day too, the photographs are all taken at about the same time of day.
It's spinning in such a way that when the lower part of the tether is close to the Earth, then it is moving backwards relative to its orbit, so slower. That lets it be exactly synchronized with the speed of a sub orbital spaceship that can only get up to the lower orbit. Which then hooks onto the tether and gets pulled up into a higher orbit by the system. Meanwhile the tether assembly loses energy so falls into a lower orbit but it can be continually reboosting to compensate e.g. using electrical power generated from solar panels to push electricity through the cable against the tendencies of the Earth's magnetic field, which creates a propulsive force to send it up into a higher orbit again.
Coming back would be the same. Though it's most useful for going up into orbit (saves a lot of fuel that way, while the other way returning from orbit you can do it with no fuel to speak of just parachutes and aeroshell).
If we can build a long enough tether, with strong enough materials, no reason why it can't dip into the atmosphere itself and pluck an airplane instead of a spacecraft into a higher orbit. Have it spinning so fast backwards that it is almost stationary relative to the Earth's surface at the lower point. And if it is a really long tether, then at the lower end for as long as it is in the Earth's atmosphere it would be pretty much stationary. So not a huge amount of friction, and you wouldn't be burnt up as it plucks you out of the atmosphere because you only start to travel at huge speeds when you are well out of the atmosphere. I've seen this suggested somewhere but can't find the reference right now. Not sure if it is possible with present day materials such as carbon fibre etc or it needs future materials.
This is a great question, thanks, and it will take us through a number of fascinating areas of astronomy. Tides are not the whole story here even though most articles on this topic say that it is. ...
(more)This is a great question, thanks, and it will take us through a number of fascinating areas of astronomy. Tides are not the whole story here even though most articles on this topic say that it is. Indeed if only tides were involved, very small objects could orbit our Moon indefinitely, while actually even the lightest of natural satellites can only orbit the Moon for a few months. That can’t be due to tides.
Lets call our "moon of a moon" a Moonlet - a term sometimes used for asteroid moons. We’ll find out why our Moon finds it hard keep a satellite at all, even just for a few years, and why an early satellite released by Apollo 16 unexpectedly crashed into the Moon. Also we'll chase up an intriguing puzzle about Saturn's moon Rhea.
Then we will look into whether moonlets of moons are possible anywhere else in our solar system. But first, let’s look at our own Earth / Moon system. Why is the Moon's orbit stable around the Earth, and why aren’t moonlets of the Moon similarly stable around the Moon?
MOON NEVER ABLE TO CATCH UP WITH ITS OWN TIDES
If the tides could respond instantly, so that you get the highest tides when the Moon is exactly overhead, then the tides would have no noticeable tidal effects on the orbit of the Moon. Also, if the Earth's surface never changed shape at all, like a steel bearing, say, again there would be no tidal drag. But for something as big as the Earth of course that is totally impossible, no natural material is as strong as that.
Instead, the tides lag just a bit behind the Moon in its daily apparent motion across the sky from East to West, at least, that’s what it seems like to us. But from the point of view of the Moon, the tides are always a bit ahead of the Moon in its orbit around the Earth from West to East, and it never quite manages to catch up.
Drawing credit Andrew Buck. This is the view from above the North pole. For someone on the globe at the equator at the top of the picture next to the arrowhead, East is to left of this picture, West is to right and North is pointing towards us, out of the picture. They see the Moon and Sun traveling East to West across the sky.
Shows how the tides lag. The Earth is spinning right to left (from West to East). The Moon is orbiting in the same direction but much more slowly.
From our vantage point on the rotating Earth, we see the Moon traveling left to right, from East to West, rising and setting like the sun (though every day it rises and sets nearly an hour later in the day, because of its eastward drift against the night sky, see for example moon rise and set times for New York).
So from our vantage point, the tides seem to lag behind the Moon - the Moon passes overhead first, and the highest tides follow later on in the day.
But as far as the Moon is concerned, the tides keep ahead of it, on the more rapidly spinning Earth, and it never quite manages to catch up with them.
The easiest tides to measure here are the tides in the solid Earth, tiny tides, raise the land by about 30 cms or so. These are much more regular than sea tides, and you can measure the lag by satellite. It's about 0.12 to 0.13 degrees.
Sea tides along coastlines lag much more, due to resonances in the oceans. The average tidal lag is six hours. So, often you find you get low tide when the Moon is at its zenith, the opposite of what you'd expect. See Currents and Tides. However, this is much harder to measure as it depends on local coastal conditions - sea tides are extremely complex depending on the coast, seas, islands, underwater features etc. As an example of this complexity, there are many places with one high tide a day and other places with more than two high tides a day.
OUR MOON'S OUTWARD SPIRAL
These tidal forces pull the Moon in the direction in which it is orbiting. This pulls it into higher and higher orbits around the Earth. Surprisingly this forward pull on the Moon in its orbit causes it to slow down rather than speed up, the opposite of what you'd expect intuitively. While the same pull gradually slows down the Earth's spin rate.
Aside about orbital mechanics
Orbital mechanics is a bit unintuitive sometimes. If you have a rocket in low orbit around the Earth, same height as the ISS, say, or lower - and you want to get it up to the much higher geostationary orbit, you accelerate in the direction of its orbit around the Earth.
You'd think it would make it orbit more quickly, but no, even though you accelerate constantly in the direction of motion around the Earth, it actually slows down relative to Earth. A satellite in GEO moves at 3.07 km/sec relative to the Earth while the ISS in its lower orbit moves at around 7.66 km/sec
So, even the Moon's orbit is not totally stable, it keeps changing like that, getting slower and higher.
Eventually - as the Earth slows down in its spin, then (if it survives the sun going red giant that is) the Earth and Moon become synchronous like Pluto and Charon each facing the other but at a huge distance apart.
And then - if they survive the Red Giant phase of our sun five billion or so years into the future, then over immense periods of time, under influence of the tidal effect of the sun, the system continues to evolve further. There are differing ideas about what happens next, one possibility is that the rotation speeds up again, Moon spirals in - the whole system losing energy in the process and eventually the Moon hits the Earth, at which point the Earth is spinning rapidly much as it did when the Moon first formed.
Anyway. So even the Sun / Earth / Moon system is not stable long term but is evolving and eventually either the Moon would hit the Earth or the Earth would lose the Moon over really huge timescales. But it is stable over the billions of years that have elapsed so far.
The Moon spirals outwards because its orbital period, the lunar month, is longer than the Earth day. If the lunar month was shorter than an Earth day, it would spiral inwards.
MOONLETS OF THE MOON WOULD SPIRAL INWARDS UNDER INFLUENCE OF TIDES
A moonlet orbiting the Moon has to orbit really close to it, as the "Hill sphere", the furthest away it can get and not be captured by the Earth is just 60,000 miles above the surface). So our moonlet will orbit far faster than the Moon's 28 day rotation period. Typically, it orbits the Moon every couple of hours or so.
This movement will set up tiny tides in the Moon, through the gravitational tug of the satellite. And those in turn will pull back at the satellite. But this time they pull backwards on its orbit, instead of forward, because the tides can't keep up with the motion of the satellite around the Moon and lag behind it.
So that then has the effect that the satellite gets faster and faster (same paradoxical thing as before, pulling backwards on the moonlet this time pulls it into a lower orbit with a faster period) spiraling in towards the Moon and eventually hits it.
However, tidal effects are less for small objects. As you can imagine, the tides raised by a tiny moonlet, say of a few tens of meters diameter, or an artificial satellite are tiny, and have little effect on their orbit.
So though if you do a web search you'll find many posts and even articles by people saying that the reason the Moon hasn't got natural satellites is because of tidal effects - actually that's not the main reason at all.
Our Moon is unable to keep most natural satellites, however small, for more than a year or two, and sometimes it can't keep it for more than a month. That can't be anything to do with tides. There is another effect that makes it really hard for the Moon to capture a satellite.
THE REAL REASON WHY LUNAR SATELLITES AND MOONLETS CRASH INTO THE MOON
This was first discovered in April 24, 1972. The Apollo 16 astronauts tried to put a small satellite called PFS-2 into lunar orbit to orbit every 2 hours. An earlier satellite PFS-1 was released by Apollo 15 and had been orbiting the Moon just fine for eight months. And they were in similar orbits originally, ranging from 55 to 76 miles above the surface.
But - to their surprise, PFS-2 rapidly changed the shape of its orbit. Within two and a half weeks, it was swooping down to within 6 miles of the surface. After a while it backed away again to 30 miles from the surface, but eventually, only 35 days after it was released, it hit the Moon.
The real reason that moonlets can't form around our Moon are because of the Mascons - the concentrations of mass on the Moon.
As satellites orbit the Moon their orbits are tugged one way and then the other by the Mascons, and these keep changing the shape of the orbits. This doesn’t make them spiral down - it's not a tidal effect. Instead, it varies their ellipticity, sometimes more, and sometimes less elliptical. Eventually, in most orbits around the Moon the orbits become so elliptical they intersect the surface of the Moon and the moonlet crashes.
"FROZEN ORBITS" OF THE MOON
Some orbits are more stable. PSF-1 lasted for a year and a half, before it hit the Moon. And there are a few "frozen orbits" where a spacecraft can orbit the Moon indefinitely. So those are good for mission planners who want their satellites to orbit the Moon for a long time without using a lot of fuel. But would be hard for a natural satellite to get into them.
I got this from the NASA page: Bizarre Lunar Orbits where they say
"There are actually a number of 'frozen orbits' where a spacecraft can stay in a low lunar orbit indefinitely. They occur at four inclinations: 27º, 50º, 76º, and 86º"
With moonlets of moons, the tidal effect isn't that important over short timescales. And after all even the Moon's orbit is not stable indefinitely, over billions of years.
So depending on the shape of the moon, I think a moon could have stable moonlets for at least some period of time..
So let's look at this a bit closer
SOME ASTEROIDS HAVE MOONS TOO
Some asteroids have satellites and some even have two satellites. These are sometimes referred to as Moonlets. In this answer, I thought I'd use that word throughout for moons of moons as well, to help keep track of which is which in the discussions.
This is Ida, first asteroid found to have a moon, with its tiny moon Dactyl. Photo taken by Galileo spacecraft in 1993
The consensus seems to be that Dactyl was probably formed in the same event that created Ida, about 1.5 billion years ago. Unfortunately, Galileo passed Ida almost exactly in the plane of Dactyl, which made it almost impossible to pin down an orbit for it exactly.
As you can see, it is irregular in shape, and rather like the Moon, the orbits of Dactyl are complicated. Depending on your assumptions, you can end up with a chaotic orbit that never repeats exactly and lasts for 1.5 billion years. Or you may find with other assumptions that it escapes within a year, or impacts on Ida. Or you can find it is in a resonant orbit that repeats pretty much exactly throughout that time. See the long term dynamics of Dactyl's orbit for techy details with plots of example orbits.
This is 87 Sylvia, the first asteroid found to have more than one satellite, its second satellite was discovered in 2004.
ASTEROID WITH RINGS
An asteroid can also have a ring system as well. This was a spectacular discovery in 2014 of the Rings of Chariklo. The images are thin and would be really bright to the naked eye if you were standing on the asteroid.
An artist's view of the rings surrounding the asteroid Chariklo, which is only 125 kilometers in radius, and the rings are around 400 km in radius.
Credit: Lucie Maquet
Asteroid Found with Rings! First-of-Its-Kind Discovery Stuns Astronomers (Video, Images)
So, that suggests we can widen the question and ask, not just, can a moon have moonlets - can it have rings also?
WHAT IF WE HAD SYLVIA WITH ITS TWO SATELLITES IN ORBIT AROUND EARTH INSTEAD OF THE MOON?
Suppose that, somehow instead of our Moon, we had 87 Sylvia, orbiting at the distance of the Moon. Would it be stable?
It's easy to find out, as you just need to calculate the Hill radius, and there's a simple formula for that (this is for the simplest case of a circular orbit; the formula is a little more complex for an elliptical orbit). I'll indent all the calculations here, to make them easy to skip if you aren't interested in the details:
Calculation:
where r is the radius of the Hill sphere, a is the semi-major axis of the moon's orbit, m is the mass of the moon and M is the mass of the planet.
So, in case of 87 Sylvia, orbiting at the distance of the Moon, then m=1.478×10^19 kg.
M = mass of the Earth = 5.97219 × 10^24 kg
a = distance of Moon (semi-major axis) = 384,400 km
so r = 384,400*(1.478×10^19/(3*5.97219 × 10^24))^(1/3)
= 3605 km.(BTW its diameter is 286 km).
So its Hill radius of Sylvia, if we had it in place of our Moon, is 3605 km.
Sylvia's moon Remus orbits at 706.5 km, and Romulus orbits at 1357 km, both well within its Hill sphere. So the system would be stable if it was located in place of our Moon.
SHOWS THAT YOU CAN HAVE A MOONLET OF A MOON AT LEAST IN THEORY
So - it is clear that you can have a moonlet of a moon. If our Moon was replaced by Sylvia it would be stable over long periods of time just like Sylvia itself.
So - the main thing is - not whether they can exist - but if they can possibly form in our solar system. For instance how would an asteroid be captured around a planet, and do so without losing its moonlet? Or might the capture process (say a collision) actually create a moonlet?
WHAT ABOUT A MOONLET OF A MOON AROUND VENUS?
Could there be a tiny asteroid with a moonlet in orbit around Venus for instance, undiscovered? It seems an obvious place to look, similar size to the Earth.
If it rotated as fast as the Earth it could easily hold onto a moon as big as ours. But it has an veru slow rotation period, only once every 243 Earth days. So there is no way it can have a moon far enough away to spiral outwards rather than inwards. The tidal effects of Venus on any moon will always pull it inwards.
Even if it was hit by a big body that created a Moon like ours in the early solar system, then - long ago it would have spiraled in and hit the surface of Venus. Some planetary scientists think that exactly that might have happened
But a smaller moon could have survived for billions of years, because tidal effects lead to much slower rates of decay of the orbit for smaller moons. The researches calculated that Venus would need to have a moon less than a few kilometers in diameter to survive right up to today.
There was a search in 2009, which surveyed it down to 0.3 Km and didn't find any moons. Page on ciw.edu in any case a moon that small would be low mass (far smaller than 87 Sylvia and have a tiny Hill sphere.
WHERE TO LOOK FOR MOONLETS OF MOONS
I suppose it depends how these moons form. If they form by collision, what you want is a tiny moon orbiting a long way away from a planet, and then hit by another moon so that a cloud of debris flies into space and then forms a moonlet about it.
The asteroid moonlets may well be just loosely clumped together piles of boulders, as may be the asteroids themselves also, these tiny ones like Ida and Dactyl - with such low gravity they don't need to be held together strongly, may be more like loose rubble piles.
So if you have a place with lots of collisions happening, seems a place to look for moonlets.
So that's something that could well happen I think some distance away from any of the larger planets.
SATURN AS A GOOD PLACE TO LOOK WITH SO MUCH DEBRIS IN ORBIT AROUND IT
If the moonlets form by collision, then you want a planetary system where there is a good chance of moons to hit each other or materials to hit the moons. And for that - well I'd say the Saturn system is a good bet. If we do find a moon with a moonlet, maybe we'll find it there?
Here is one of the moons of Saturn, Prometheus
Saturn's Rings and Moons are Solar System Antiques
It's got numerous moons. So is quite promising. But none of them have confirmed moonlets, yet discovered, sadly. But it does get quite close. First the co-orbital moons:
CO-ORBITAL MOONS
It does have co-orbital moons Epimetheus and Janus.
This is not a double moon though it may seem so from this photograph.
Instead, they are co-orbiting and swap orbits. It is what can happen to what would otherwise be a moonlet of a moon, when the Hill sphere is too small to include both objects. So I think it is worth going into, it also helps to explain what the Hill sphere is all about.
Suppose for instance that Epimetheus is on the inside, as happens every 8 years, and Janus on the outside. Then Epimetheus is orbiting just 30 seconds per orbit faster than Janus. So it gradually gets further and further ahead of Janus until, four years later, it starts to catch up with Janus from behind.
When it does that, then Epimetheus pulls backwards at Janus - which causes it to go faster and drop into a lower orbit. Meanwhile Janus pulls forward at Epimetheus causing it to go slower and into a higher orbit. So then they swap places. Now Janus is on the inside, and Epimetheus is on the outside, and Janus will gradually speed away and so it goes on like that, swapping positions every four years. See Epimetheus (moon)
This gives a rough idea of how it works:
Only thing is they've done it with the green one much heavier so it doesn't move in its orbit.
Here is another view this time in 3D, using rotating frame:
More about it here: The Orbital Dance of Epimetheus and Janus including an actual short video of Janus and Epiphemus at the moment they change orbits (though it's taken from a perspective where it's not easy to see what is going on, a video taken by a satellite itself in orbit around Saturn and in the same plane), taken by the Cassini orbiter in 2005
Here BTW is a simulation of four moons all co-orbiting in a similar way, which could happen theoretically though no examples known, this is in rotating frame
HORSESHOE ORBITS - THE CASE OF EARTH AND CRUITHE
It's related to the idea of a "horseshoe orbit", like the much more complex orbit of 3753 Cruithne which is in a "bean shaped orbit" relative to Earth.
From Earth's perspective:
But something you don't see in that animation, that "bean" is also gradually drifting around relative to Earth until it catches up with Earth from behind, similarly to Janus and Epimetheus - and then when that happens, then the Earth and 3753 Cruithne do a similar swap except this time because of the difference of size, 3753 Cruithne moves over half a million kilometers while Earth moves just 1.3 centimetres.
Nevertheless that swap will move the Earth outwards a bit, enough so that your year is a little longer from then onwards, until next time the swap happens. Then it swaps back again and the process repeats. The whole process takes around 770 years.
So anyway you can get co-orbiting moons, though they are rare.
WHAT ABOUT OTHER MOONS OF SATURN?
Saturn has numerous moons, wikipedia lists 62 so far. Outermost is Fornjot (moon) orbiting at a distance of 24,504,879 km from Saturn.
At six kilometers in diameter, it's a little small, though many NEOs are smaller than that and have moonlets.
But let's take the case of Phoebe (moon), the outermost moon of any size. It is also prograde - rotating Saturn in opposite direction to the planet's rotation. And has a fast rotation period of 9 h 16 min 55.2 secs
Calculation:
m=8.292*10^18 kg (mass of Phoebe)
M = mass of the Saturn=5.68319 × 10^26 kg
a = semi-major axis of Phoebe= 12,955,759 km
so r = 12,955,759 *(8.292*10^18/(3*5.68319 × 10^26))^(1/3)
= 21950.5 km.
So its Hills radius of 21,950.5 km is easily large enough for it to have a few moonlets like 87 Sylvia. Phoebe's diameter is 200 km (radius 100 km).
It is highly non spherical
But on the other hand it is really tiny, radius only 100 km. It's not like an orbit at say 15,000 km away is close to its surface and going to be diverted into elliptical orbits as happens with the Moon. And Ida is very irregular also and has a moonlet.
So, could it have a tiny moonlet, orbiting up to 20,000 km away or so? Would it have been spotted if it had one?
Another obvious place to search is Titan.
m = 1.3452×10^23 kg (mass of Titan)
M = mass of the Saturn=5.68319 × 10^26 kg
a = semi-major axis of Titan= 1,221,870 km
so r = 1,221,870 *(1.3452×10^23/(3*5.68319 × 10^26))^(1/3)
= 52,406 km.
Its radius is 2,576 km. So a Hills radius of 75,582 km gives a fair bit of room for a tiny moonlet.
Since it is also highly spherical that might seem promising.
But it is tidally locked with Saturn, with a slow rotation of 15.945 days, and another factor that could count against moonlets, it may have a subsurface ocean which could lead to stronger tidal effects.
Still it would seem promising for a tiny moonlet or ring. Though I've not seen any suggestion that it could have moonlets or rings.
ONE OF THE MOST PROMISING PLACES TO LOOK, RHEA
One promising candidate is Saturn's moon Rhea, its second largest moon and a long way from the planet, and at one time it was thought to have a ring system, with most of it within its Hill sphere. If this was true, it would be the only moon known with a ring system, which you could think of as lots of really tiny moonlets.
Artist's impression of the rings of Rhea
And this shows where it is relative to the rings and the other moons - a long way out though not as far as Titan:
Sadly, later observations to try to confirm this found no evidence of any ring system. "A very sad story": No rings for Rhea after all
But the jury is still out as to whether it has a ring system that somehow eluded discovery - or at least maybe did in the past, because it has these intriguing blue marks all around its equator, which may be the marks of de-orbiting ring material:
If Rhea does have a ring system, then just like Saturn it might have a shepherding moonlet outside of it helping to keep the material in place around the moon.
Rhea is a particularly good candidate because it is a near spherical moon (so not got the problem of irregular shape) - so if it doesn't have Mascons like the Moon, orbits could be very stable around it. And though tidally locked with Saturn with a period of 4 days, it is not likely to have significant tidal effects on a tiny moonlet unless it has an underground ocean.
Let's do our Hill sphere calculation for Rhea for completeness
Calculation:
m=2.306518×10^21 kg (mass of Rhea)
M = mass of the Saturn=5.68319 × 10^26 kg
a = semi-major axis of Phoebe= 527,108 km
so r = 527,108*(2.306518×10^21/(3*5.68319 × 10^26))^(1/3)
= 5829.7 km.
So its Hill sphere radius is 5829.7 km
Rhea's radius is 763.8 km.
Rotation period (synchronous so same as orbital period) 4.518212 days
So anyway - whether Rhea does turn out to have a ring system or not, and whether or not it turns out to have a shepherding moonlet, in the modeling they did for the ring system, they did work out the physics of it all and showed that such a system could be stable over the duration of the solar system.
So the answer is a definite YES, in theory, moons can have moonlets, and even rings!
None are known for sure yet, but there is a distinct possibility that Rhea at least might still, some day, be proved to have a tiny moonlet or even a sparse ring system.
WHAT ABOUT THE PLUTO SYSTEM
This is topical with New Horizons doing a flyby mid July 2015. Might it discover a moonlet of a moon?
It would seem quite promising if moonlets are created by collision, since it's moving rapidly in the Kelper belt and gets hit often with high speed collisions, and has many moons already discovered.
Also its many moons may have formed from a ring system, like Saturn, and it may still have rings. This is result of one recent simulation into the possibility of rings of Pluto.
Notice that the binary system in the middle clears out the central part of the ring, but beyond that, the orbits are circular.
First colour image of Pluto and Charon taken by New Horizons.
Let's do our Hill sphere calculation for Charon first
Calculation:
m = 1.52×10^21 kg (mass of Charon)
M = mass of the Pluto =1.30900 × 10^22 kilograms
a = semi-major axis 17,536 km
so r = 17,536*( 1.52×10^21/(3*1.30900 × 10^22))^(1/3)
= 5931.9 km.
So its Hill sphere radius is 5931.9 km.
Charon's radius is 603.5.
Rotation period 6 d, 9 h, 17 m
Compare Rhea:
So its Hill sphere radius is 5829.7 km
Rhea's radius is 763.8 km.
Rotation period (synchronous so same as orbital period) 4.518212 days
It's an almost exact clone in terms of Hill sphere.
So it would seem that if Rhea can have a ring system, possibly even a moonlet to shepherd it, then Charon could too, at least on the basis of its Hill sphere radius. Though I can't find any suggestion of this as a possibility in the articles I read.
Let's also try Hydra, Pluto's outermost of its known moons:
Calculation:
m = 4.2×10^17 kg (mass of Hydra)
M = mass of the Pluto =1.30900 × 10^22 kilograms
a = semi-major axis 64,749 km
so r = 64,749*( 4.2×10^17/(1.30900 × 10^22))^(1/3)
= 1426.6 km.
So its Hill sphere radius is 1426.6 km.
Hydra's radius is 61 to 167 kilometers
Rotation period unknown
It is similar in size to Ida, possibly larger. And Ida's moon Dactyl was only 90 kilometres away from the parent asteroid when it was photographed. Its orbit is unknown, so could be elliptical or circular.
But since then many asteroids have been found to have moons, at various orbits from less than a kilometer to over a thousand of kilometers from the parent. Even the most distant in that table, the Petit Prince asteroid of Eugenia - first moon of an asteroid to be discovered from Earth - has an orbit of 1184 as its semi-major axis so could just fit inside the Hill sphere radius of Hydra.
So, it would seem that Hydra could easily have a moonlet like Ida, in theory at least.
It has several other tiny Moons now known, Kerberos and Styx have been added to the list.
BINARY MOONLETS
What about binary moonlets, a pair of moonlets both around the same size as each other?
You get binary asteroids, with two moonlets the same size, more or less.
This is an artist's impression of the binary asteroid 90 Antiope.
Artist's impression of the double asteroid Antiope produced by European Southern Observatory (ESO).
Adaptive optics image of 90 Antiope taken by the W. M. Keck Observatory in 2000
Some binary asteroids are really tiny. Here are
Radar images of 1937 UB (Hermes) taken in 2013
This time the two moonlets are a really tiny 300–450 meters. (Since neither is noticeably bigger than the other I think have to call them both moonlets).
And the separation of the two is only 1200 meters (1.2 km).
In the case of asteroids, then about 15% of the Near Earth asteroids are binary. various mechanisms suggested, and - they seem like processes that could also apply to moons with a large Hill sphere, if there are other objects around that could hit them. Including - major impacts with an asteroid where the main body breaks apart into several parts, which then collect together to make several bodies in place of the original single body. Or an impact that doesn't break the body apart completely but ejects enough material from a crater so that some of it in the cloud of material created gathers together to form a single moon that ends up in orbit around it. See this paper on Binary and Multiple systems of asteroids.
So again, by analogy with asteroids that often have moonlets, Pluto with its complex moon system, and situation where it is subject to high velocity incoming debris from material in the Kuiper belt, perhaps for fun, I can venture a wild speculation that Horizons might just find a double moon or a moon with a moonlet :).
Perhaps it may spot a tiny moonlet of Charon - or else - that one of the outermost moons is a binary moon.
It is just a fun idea :). I haven't seen any speculations about this either way. Do say if you know of anything about this possibility. Is there anything that makes it unlikely?
What do you think, do you think there is a chance that some of the moons in our solar system, such as Saturn's Rhea, might have undiscovered moonlets or rings? Do you think there is any chance that Pluto's system could have a moon with a moonlet or a ring of some kind?
UPDATE ON HYDRA
Hydra turned out not to have any moon, at least not of any size. But it’s somewhat binary in appearance.
KERBEROS
Kerberos was a big surprise. they thought it was dark - to the extent, was a puzzle how it could be so dark. But turns out it is bright, and probably a "contact binary" like comet 67P.
New Horizons image of Kerberos. Its brightness is puzzling as on the face of it, it would seem to imply that it is absurdly dense, far denser than an iron meteorite, many times denser than lead. So, that's denser even than platinum. Perhaps there is something not taken account of in the gravity calculations as the author of the original paper that predicted a dark Kerberos has suggested. moonlet.
As usual if you spot any errors in any of this be sure to say, or anything that needs to be corrected. Thanks!
I've posted a copy of this to my Science20 blog as Can Moons Have Moonlets? Or Rings?
You can now get this as a kindle book along with many other answers on a similar vein, as part of
Simple Questions in Astronomy - Surprising Answers
Or as a separate kindle book for just this one:
Fractal nanotruss. Individual components are as small as 5 nanometers. (Image: L. Meza, L. Montemayor, N. Clarke, J. Greer/Caltech) from Nanotechnology and 3D-printing
This image may identify one of the parachutes of Beagle 2 which has remained undisturbed on the surface for about a decade. You wouldn't expect it to be moved by the Martian winds as they are just too weak for this.Beagle 2 spacecraft found intact on surface of Mars after 11 years
Advancing Dune in Nili Patera, Mars. Back-and-forth blinking of this two-image animation shows movement of a sand dune on Mars. This discovery shows that entire dunes as thick as 200 feet (61 meters) are moving as coherent units across the Martian landscape. The sand dunes move at about the same flux (volume per time) dunes in Antarctica. This was unexpected because of the thin air and the winds which are weaker than Earth winds. It may be due to "saltation" - balistic movement of sand grains which travel further in the weaker Mars gravity. See NASA Spacecraft Detects Changes in Martian Sand Dunes - Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter
The lee fronts of the dunes in this region move on average 0.5 meters per years (though the selection may be biased here as they only measured dunes with clear lee edges to measure) and the ripples move on average 0.1 meters per year.
"But despite their common pattern, desires are not monolithic. Each offers a different perception of what's lacking in life, together with a different picture of what the solution should be. A desire for a sandwich comes from a perception of physical hunger and proposes to solve it with a Swiss-on-rye. A desire to climb a mountain focuses on a different set of hungers — for accomplishment, exhilaration, self-mastery — and appeals to a different image of satisfaction. Whatever the desire, if the solution actually leads to happiness, the desire is skillful. If it doesn't, it's not. However, what seems to be a skillful desire may lead only to a false or transitory happiness not worth the effort entailed. So wisdom starts as a meta-desire: to learn how to recognize skillful and unskillful desires for what they actually are."
...
"What made the Buddha special was that he never lowered his expectations. He imagined the ultimate happiness — one so free from limit and lack that it would leave no need for further desire — and then treasured his desire for that happiness as his highest priority. Bringing all his other desires into dialogue with it, he explored various strategies until finding one that actually attained that unlimited goal. This strategy became his most basic teaching: the four noble truths."
...
Sutra text: "What is right effort? There is the case where a monk (here meaning any meditator) generates desire, endeavors, arouses persistence, upholds and exerts his intent for the sake of the non-arising of evil, unskillful mental qualities that have not yet arisen... for the sake of the abandoning of evil, unskillful qualities that have arisen... for the sake of the arising of skillful qualities that have not yet arisen... for the maintenance, non-confusion, increase, plenitude, development, and culmination of skillful qualities that have arisen. This is called right effort."
As for the enlightened being:
"The Buddha encouraged these queries by describing the awakened person as so undefined and unlimited that he or she couldn't be located in the present life or be described after this life as existing, not existing, neither, or both. This may sound like an abstract and unreachable goal, but the Buddha demonstrated its human face in the example of his person. Having pushed past the limits of cause and effect, he was still able to function admirably within them, in this life, happy in even the most difficult circumstances, compassionately teaching people of every sort. And there's his testimony that not only monks and nuns, but also lay people — even children — had developed their skillful desires to the point where they gained a taste of awakening as well."
For more on this, Desire & Imagination in the Buddhist Path - the quotes above are extracts from that essay by Thanissaro Bhikkhu.
from: Water Still Flows Freely On The Surface Of Mars
The equatorial warm dark streaks there are spots that would be very interesting to explore close up, but quite challenging to get to and need a much better sterilized rover than Curiosity to make sure we don't contaminate them with Earth life.
" Kaye, the head teacher of Kannon Do Zen Meditation Center in Mountain View, Calif., said Jobs didn't practice Buddhism long enough to let it sink in.
He got to the aesthetic part of Zen — the relationship between lines and spaces, the quality and craftsmanship," Kaye said. "But he didn't stay long enough to get the Buddhist part, the compassion part, the sensitivity part."
Steve Jobs' private spirituality now an open book
Snow-white! Snow-white! O Lady clear!
O Queen beyond the Western Seas!
O Light to us that wander here
Amid the world of woven trees!
Gilthoniel! O Elbereth!
Clear are thy eyes and bright thy breath!
Snow-white! Snow-white! We sing to thee
In a far land beyond the Sea.
O stars that in the Sunless Year
With shining hand by her were sown,
In windy fields now bright and clear
We see your silver blossom blown!
O Elbereth! Gilthoniel!
We still remember, we who dwell
In this far land beneath the trees,
Thy starlight on the Western Seas.
Common limpets - many Westerners seem to have the idea that the path of Buddhism is almost to turn yourself into a kind of a limpet type creature, clinging to a rock like a limpet at low tide, and not responding to anything around you.
From: Terton Gallery (Gallery of images in Bhutan by mainly Bhutanese artists).
Asoka's empire covered much of India in 3rd century BC, but the sutras have no mention of it and don't predict it either. And describe an India of many small countries, without writing, and with Southern India and Sri Lanka unknown. To some scholars at least, this suggests that they were probably composed before the time of King Asoka.
The Buddhist monk Saichô (767-822) dared to abrogate the multitude of traditional small precepts in favour of the sole precept to «awaken to the fundamental one-mind of Mahayana». He established a ceremony for the taking of this precept and built a Mahayana ordination platform for the purpose on Mount Hiei near Kyoto. Since then, various branches of Japanese Buddhism have adhered to this. But Zen, following in the steps of its Chinese tradition, upheld an original structure of mutual complementarity of the monastic and secular communities and thus did not completely give way to lay Buddhism. Although this was a contradictory compromise of a kind that is again different from that of Southeast Asian Buddhism, one can say that the realization of this kind of contradiction bears potential for the future. However, it also proved to be a cause for confusion in monastic Japanese Buddhism.There's another account here Monks, Nuns & Priests in Western Zen
From: the View of a Zen Monk from Japan - read it to get more of an understanding of the Zen view on ordination.
"One of the essential teachings that Trungpa propagated in America is that of “nontheism,” which he considered an aspect of egolessness. Reduced to its pith, nontheism is the teaching that intervention of ultimate reality, whether called God or by some other name, is not the source of salvation for us beings of the temporal world. Rather, we must make our own salvation, helpedperhaps by more realized beings, such as Christ or Buddha or saints or the guru, but basically alone, reliant on our own wit and grit. No God or external Power will intervene for us, or condemn us.
"The consequences of rejecting or accepting the principle of salvation-through-God are far-reaching. For example: the power of sin and guilt may be much less for a Buddhist, who does not accept such salvation. And the power of prayer and self-surrender may be greatly enhanced for a Christian, who does. In general, Buddhists do not use the name God to describe the ultimate. But I believe it is important that this not be seen as a denial of Christians’ experience or belief. For practical purposes, nontheism is better understood as a method rather than as a creed.
"Nontheism is not a dictionary word but a word Trungpa created to express the Buddhist viewpoint. It is quite different from atheism; Buddhism neither denies nor asserts the existence of God. Nor is nontheism agnosticism, meaning the belief that it is not possible to know ultimate truths. Buddhism asserts that it is possible to know the ultimate through direct meditative perception. (Albeit not through intellect and logic; all “proofs of God” are held to be fallacious.) Nontheism is simply the Buddhist teaching that salvationism might eventually lead to spiritual obstacles: perhaps resentment towards God—or doubt towards one’s own worthiness—in the face of strong adversity. Perhaps, more subtly, it may be a tendency to see “someone else” as responsible for the general well-being of oneself and the world. And from there might arise a whole subconscious system of helplessness, entitlement and blame."
from: A Nontheist's Journey By Rob Lee, writing about Trungpa Rinpoche's ideas
There has been one notable mission that went vertically out of the plane of the solar system. That's the Ulysses spacecraft which did a flyby of Jupiter to get into an orbit to study the Sun's pole...
(more)There has been one notable mission that went vertically out of the plane of the solar system. That's the Ulysses spacecraft which did a flyby of Jupiter to get into an orbit to study the Sun's poles from above and below.
However this also illustrates the problem. Because the Earth orbits in the plane of the solar system, in the same direction as all the other planets - it requires a huge amount of delta v to do an orbit like this. Ulysees was able to achieve this with a close fly by of Jupiter.
Add to that, that there isn't much else, other than the poles of the sun, of interest out of the plane of the ecliptic, at least close to the sun, and you can see why we haven't done this often.
We do have the roughly spherical Oort cloud of comets orbiting beyond Pluto - but these are far away so unlikely to be visited soon - and probably there are many members of it that orbit close to the ecliptic also.
Voyager 1 is another spacecraft that went almost vertically out of our solar system In this case, wasn't by design, but as a biproduct of the decision to do a close flyby of Titan. Because of its thick atmosphere, the only solid moon or planet in our solar system with a thick atmosphere other than Earth itself they saw it as a prime target to study.
They could have gone on to explore Uranus and Neptune like Voyager 2. They could also have done a flyby to send Voyager 1 on to visit Pluto, but instead decided to do a close flyby of Titan. This seemed a reasonable trade off to the planners - they had no way to know that Titan, interesting though it undoubtedly is, would turn out to be completely shrouded in haze, with no surface features visible to Voyager 1.
As a result, Voyager 1 left our solar system almost vertically, like this:
Taking this image as it left the disk of the solar system
Crescent Saturn as seen from Voyager 1 four days after its flyby
Other ones that left the solar system well out of the plane of the solar system include Voyager 2, it did this to fly by Triton which has an inclined orbit
As it left the plane of the solar system it took photos of Neptune's rings like this one
Pioneer 10 did a flyby of Jupiter which deflected it out of the solar system, then back into it again for the Saturn flyby, after which it went into a solar escape trajectory.
This is an image it took of Jupiter thirteen and a half hours after its polar flyby when it left the plane of the solar system for the first time.
On a smaller scale, locally - the Russians because they launch from the North of Russia, well away from the equator, typically send spacecraft into orbits that go way above and below the equator. The ISS also is in an orbit inclined at a similar angle to the equator, making it easy to get to it with the Soyuz spacecraft.
The Russians especially have launched many satellites into steeply inclined orbits like that, because it is the easiest type of orbit for them to launch into and because the orbits fly over Russia. In particular they have often used Molniya orbits - which are sort of like geostationary orbits - but the satellite is in a very elliptical orbit and spends a lot of time each day high up above the Northern hemisphere looking down on Russia etc - then does a close fly by of the Southern hemisphere for a few hours, swings around and then goes back up to its high vantage point above the Northern hemisphere.
The Hubble space telescope orbit is also quite inclined, not as much as the ISS
There are also, satellites in polar orbits, or close to it, for instance, inclined at an angle of 8 degrees. Because of the bulge of the Earth, a satellite at an orbit inclined at 8 degrees to the vertical precesses at just the right rate so it always has the same orientation to the sun - called sun synchronous, orbit. Useful for instance for studying the aurora.
You can get this and many more of my answers now as a kindle book:
This one is thought to be just solid ice.
But if an impact melted the subsurface ice on Mars it might well form a lake that looks like this - but only the top meter or so is solid ice, and below, it remains liquid for a long period of time, insulated by the ice. And at reasonable temperatures too, above the melting point of ice, for a period of time of up to a thousand years for the larger impacts.
First just to say I'm directly answering the question - why might some Tibetans not want to be part of China. Whether it is practical or possible for Tibet to be a separate country is another matte...
(more)First just to say I'm directly answering the question - why might some Tibetans not want to be part of China. Whether it is practical or possible for Tibet to be a separate country is another matter altogether, as it is often that people want things they can't have.
Tibetan culture is very different from Chinese. For one thing, their scripts are mutually unintelligible.
The Chinese all use Chinese pictograms, which mean that a Chinese in any part of China can understand any other Chinese person.
Tibetans use a completely different, phonetic script related to Indian scripts
A Tibetan can't read Chinese and vice versa.
Also the language is in a different branch, the Tibetic languages rather than the Chinese languages, Sino-Tibetan languages (though Chinese also speak many mutually unintelligible languages).
There the script makes a big difference, Chinese who can't understand each other's languages can still communicate using the script, because it is pictographic, communicating concepts rather than phonetics.
Actually, the common written language which unified the Chinese empire was a dead language, like our Latin. How did the Chinese manage to be unified by a common written language given the huge size and population of China when Europe with a smaller size and population is divided by different languages?
They mention the Shi poem which is intelligible in the classical written language but not in spoken Mandarin (though apparently much easier to understand in some dialects with more vowel sounds than Mandarin Lion-Eating Poet in the Stone Den)
Anyway even though it’s a dead language, it did unify China and they all use the same pictogram type script even though modern versions of Chinese are often not mutually intelligible any more (thanks for the correction, Gabriel Chan)
But Tibetans don't use this script, instead using their phonetic script which can only convey meaning to other Tibetans.
Then as for the religion, Tibetan Buddhism is a different branch of Buddhism from Chinese Buddhism. In both cases, introduced directly from India. And has developed differently.
Many practices in Tibet are more closely related to some Indian customs, e.g. the practice of sky burial and charnel grounds which relate to customs of some minority Indian religions - and in ancient times were common in India.
Tibetan Buddhism has a long established system of recognizing incarnations of some of its spiritual teachers when they die, identified as a young child of a few years old through various signs. Chinese Buddhism doesn't have this tradition.
The culture is very different.
So, if it is natural for many Scottish people, to want to be independent of the UK, as in our recent referendum, even when we all speak the same language and belong to the same small island and have a largely shared culture - of course it is natural for many Tibetans to want to be independent from China.
In the past at times China has invaded Tibet and taken control of it, and other times it has left it alone. This is the most recent of several such invasions.
Some Tibetans call for Tibet to be free from China. That's the Free Tibet movement.
The Dalai Lama calls for a more moderate position - that Tibet remains part of China but with greater autonomy. He is asking mainly for religious, educational, and cultural freedom and freedom to make their own decisions to deal with environmental issues in Tibet.
Whatever happens, perhaps it can help for all those concerned to recognize that it is natural for this wish to arise in many Tibetans just as it has arisen in many Scottish people in the UK. There is nothing wrong with the wish, it is totally natural. But what one does about it, if anything, is another thing altogether.
Should
As a Buddhist in one of the Tibetan traditions my sympathies are with the second, autonomous region as suggested by the Dalai Lama, because it seems the most practical one with at least a tiny chance that it might actually happen, while preserving freedom for many of the things Tibetans care most about.
As someone living in Scotland, who recently voted for Scotland to become an independent country in the referendum, then my sympathies are with the first choice, so long as it was achieved through peaceful means. If I was Tibetan living in Tibet, I'm pretty sure I'd want it to be a separate country.
But even if that was ones wish, it is probably not achievable, while the middle possibility - just possibly might be. I hope that some day the Tibetans get more autonomy to govern things that can be of no danger or harm to the Chinese, indeed a benefit surely to let those on the spot make the decisions - and allowed to get on with their lives as they like to lead them themselves, and follow their own religious ideas and so forth.
Of course any transition like that would need to be done gradually. If Tibet was made autonomous overnight, then - there probably wouldn't be the infrastructure in place to make it work properly.
When I am about ninety I will consult the high Lamas of the Tibetan Buddhist traditions, the Tibetan public, and other concerned people who follow Tibetan Buddhism, and re-evaluate whether the institution of the Dalai Lama should continue or not. On that basis we will take a decision. If it is decided that the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama should continue and there is a need for the Fifteenth Dalai Lama to be recognized, responsibility for doing so will primarily rest on the concerned officers of the Dalai Lama’s Gaden Phodrang Trust. They should consult the various heads of the Tibetan Buddhist traditions and the reliable oath-bound Dharma Protectors who are linked inseparably to the lineage of the Dalai Lamas. They should seek advice and direction from these concerned beings and carry out the procedures of search and recognition in accordance with past tradition. I shall leave clear written instructions about this. Bear in mind that, apart from the reincarnation recognized through such legitimate methods, no recognition or acceptance should be given to a candidate chosen for political ends by anyone, including those in the People’s Republic of China.
It has ice at both poles. But not much. There is enough to over Mars to at least 11 meters. That might sound a lot, but it is small compared with the amount of ice in Antarctica. There is probably ...
(more)It has ice at both poles. But not much. There is enough to over Mars to at least 11 meters. That might sound a lot, but it is small compared with the amount of ice in Antarctica. There is probably a lot of ice elsewhere underground. The higher latitudes also have large areas of permafrost with ice close to the surface.
In equatorial regions however the ground is dry to a great depth. Far drier than our deserts. Yes Curiosity found a surprising amount of water bound in the sand (NASA - NASA Mars Rover Fully Analyzes First Soil Samples ) - but it was surprising for Mars only - similar quantities to the water bound in the sands of the Sahara desert - it is still very very dry.
The water boiled off at 835 degrees C. Curiosity Rover Makes Big Water Discovery in Mars Dirt, a 'Wow Moment' It's a high water content compared to the very dry moon, but not compared to Earth. And the water is bound and not available for life to use. Even dry granite is often 3% water content r/askscience
The distribution of the changes over geological timescales, because Mars's inclination keeps changing (so also does its orbit - sometimes more elliptical, as it is now, at other times more circular). At times its ice caps are probably more extensive. At other times its axis tilts so far it has equatorial ice sheets.
There is probably water deep inside Mars, what they call the hydrosphere, kilometers below the surface where the temperatures rise above the melting point of ice, and trapped by the rocky layers above.
Then - there is a fair bit of moisture in the atmosphere, which at night causes frosts, even in the equatorial regions.
But you can't have liquid water on Mars for any length of time at present. Over most of the surface the boiling point is below its melting point because the air is so thin. In a few places at the bottom of the Hellas basin for instance, there is enough pressure so that the water is just below its boiling point of a few degrees centigrade, but any patches of water would still dry out pretty quickly.
All the same there are some possibilities for small amounts of liquid water. These can be
Also if you get a large meteorite impact, especially at the poles, this can cause a lake to form. If the impact is large enough, the lake is still liquid after it gets covered with ice, and the insulating effect of that can keep it liquid for up to a thousand years or more. So from time to time Mars even has extensive patches of water on the surface covered with a layer of ice, at least - theoretically that should happen.
Also it is not yet completely geologically dead - is good evidence that it has had eruptions in the recent geological past though none active right now. So you can also get ice that's melted by geothermal heating - and if trapped underground may be able to remain liquid.
But - Mars has far less water or ice than we'd expect. There is evidence of an ancient ocean that may have covered much of the Northern hemisphere. If that's true, then it's an interesting question, what happened to all that water? Did it sink underground perhaps? Or did it get dissociated into hydrogen and oxygen with the hydrogen lost to space? Or a bit of both or some other explanation? Nobody knows. Hopefully we will find out more soon.
See also my:
When I am about ninety I will consult the high Lamas of the Tibetan Buddhist traditions, the Tibetan public, and other concerned people who follow Tibetan Buddhism, and re...(more)
When I am about ninety I will consult the high Lamas of the Tibetan Buddhist traditions, the Tibetan public, and other concerned people who follow Tibetan Buddhism, and re-evaluate whether the institution of the Dalai Lama should continue or not. On that basis we will take a decision. If it is decided that the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama should continue and there is a need for the Fifteenth Dalai Lama to be recognized, responsibility for doing so will primarily rest on the concerned officers of the Dalai Lama’s Gaden Phodrang Trust. They should consult the various heads of the Tibetan Buddhist traditions and the reliable oath-bound Dharma Protectors who are linked inseparably to the lineage of the Dalai Lamas. They should seek advice and direction from these concerned beings and carry out the procedures of search and recognition in accordance with past tradition. I shall leave clear written instructions about this. Bear in mind that, apart from the reincarnation recognized through such legitimate methods, no recognition or acceptance should be given to a candidate chosen for political ends by anyone, including those in the People’s Republic of China.
When I am about ninety I will consult the high Lamas of the Tibetan Buddhist traditions, the Tibetan public, and other concerned people who follow Tibetan Buddhism, and re-evaluate whether the institution of the Dalai Lama should continue or not. On that basis we will take a decision. If it is decided that the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama should continue and there is a need for the Fifteenth Dalai Lama to be recognized, responsibility for doing so will primarily rest on the concerned officers of the Dalai Lama’s Gaden Phodrang Trust. They should consult the various heads of the Tibetan Buddhist traditions and the reliable oath-bound Dharma Protectors who are linked inseparably to the lineage of the Dalai Lamas. They should seek advice and direction from these concerned beings and carry out the procedures of search and recognition in accordance with past tradition. I shall leave clear written instructions about this. Bear in mind that, apart from the reincarnation recognized through such legitimate methods, no recognition or acceptance should be given to a candidate chosen for political ends by anyone, including those in the People’s Republic of China.
With the rarer types of habitat here, there may be no more than a few square kilometers of habitat over entire surface of Mars, for a few hours a year.
If it was all photosynthetic life, and as active as life in the ice covered ponds of the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica, the oxygen produced would contribute at most a few hundred kilograms of gases per surface square kilometer of habitat.
So, if the entire surface of Mars is habitat (which surely it isn't), that contributes less than 0.0002% of the Mars atmosphere if left to build up over a "residence time" of 4,500 years. That compares to a measured 0.145% of oxygen in the atmosphere - so any seasonal effect is likely to be hidden in the noise. For the calculation, see my How Life May Exist On Mars With Atmosphere Close To Equilibrium.
States Parties to the Treaty undertake not to place in orbit around the earth any objects carrying nuclear weapons or any other kinds of weapons of mass destruction, install such weapons on celestial bodies, or station such weapons in outer space in any other manner.
"Richard Greenberg of the University of Arizona has considered three generic resurfacing processes: gradually laying fresh material on the surface; opening cracks which fill with fresh ice from below; and disrupting patches of surface in place and replacing them with fresh material. Using estimates for the production of oxidizers at the surface, he finds that the delivery rate into the ocean is so fast that the oxygen concentration could exceed that of the Earth’s oceans in only a few million years. "
For more details: Jupiter's Moon Europa Has Enough Oxygen For Life
Shows the Europa water plumes (which may connect to the subsurface ocean) and Io's "sulfur volcanoes". Sulfur from Io gets deposited on Europa and by looking at how this interacts with the surface the researchers got clues about Europa's subsurface oceans.
A Window Into Europa's Ocean Lies Right at the Surface | Caltech
First, I'm writing this as a Buddhist, so can answer only from that perspective, how Hinduism differs from Buddhism as seen by a Buddhist, and main focus is on Buddhism. It would be interesting to ...
(more)First, I'm writing this as a Buddhist, so can answer only from that perspective, how Hinduism differs from Buddhism as seen by a Buddhist, and main focus is on Buddhism. It would be interesting to get an answer from knowledgeable Hindus about the differences as seen by a Hindu.
So, first, all Buddhists follow the teachings of a single teacher, the Buddha. His teachings are extensive. His disciples took care to memorize them, starting on this before he died, and also they had an assembly after he died, taking seven months to agree on a single version of all his teachings, and then they chanted the accepted version in unison. There are about 16,000 pages and some monks are able to memorize the entire canon even to this day.
So, it is not unreasonable to assume that it was passed down, essentially unchanged, until it got written down a few decades BCE as the Pāli Canon.
This makes it possible to make some quite general statements about what he taught, that all Buddhists accept.
He said though that we should not accept any of his teachings on his "say so". So though what he taught himself is clear, there is no requirement on Buddhists to accept his teachings as "revealed truth" indeed he made it clear that nothing he said should be regarded in this way.
This is the most distinctive thing is that he taught that you can see the truth for yourself, through meditation, insight, understanding.
The core of his teaching is the four noble truths. He taught that even bliss, even unmixed pleasure, or unmixed equanimity - states of mind that few achieve - that even these refined states are not a permanent solution to our problems because they don't last. So they are "unsatisfactory" or as Buddhists call it "dukkha".
He then taught the source of all this unsatisfactoriness is our clinging to an illusory idea of self. He didn't teach that we have to eradicate the self - to attempt to eradicate an illusion is as likely to turn out to be another way to make it more "real" to us. And you would then have the problem of "who is it who did the eradication"?
Instead it is a matter of dawning insight, a gentle middle path. Where you neither try to stamp out your thoughts, nor encourage your illusions, but try to see things as clearly as you can, as they are. And through doing that, he says, insight can arise, which dispells these illusions. This insight doesn't really arise from the self, can't do. If it did it would just reinforce this idea of self that we cling to. But it doesn't arise from any external deity or being separate from us either.
So though - there are of course many beings "external" to any of us in the ordinary sense - and some may be so long lived and powerful, as to count as "deities". But they are not the source of this arising of insight in his teachings.
Because it is not originated in the self, then Buddhists often use iconography of external beings, such as buddhas and bodhisattvas. But this is not to be interpreted as saying that it comes from outside of you. Rather they are other beings like ourselves whose inspiration helps us, just as the Buddha's teaching do, leading to arising of insight in ourselves also. And sometimes they are "yidams" - in that case the iconography is a way of describing pure wisdom, pure compassion etc. Because not bound up with this illusory idea of self, then when first encountered, they may seem external, and may be that the only way we can encounter them is through some kind of "meeting" with what seems to be an external being you can talk to. But that doesn't mean they are really external. That's an early stage of insight in some traditions, and eventually you need to drop this idea of wisdom or compassion as external in any sense at all.
In Hinduism - I can't say so much there, but the basic idea I think is that this insight is external, and separate from the practitioner.
But even then, in some branches of Hinduism anyway, then there is the idea that once all beings reach enlightenment, that their "God" Ishvara also dissolves away, is in some sense, no longer external and separate from enlightened beings. I hesitate to say much here though as I don't know much about Hinduism, just a hint.
The other main difference is that Hinduism covers many teachings and traditions by many teachers. Its scriptures are very extensive, but they are not scriptures setting out the teachings of a single teacher. Of course there are also many individual Hindu teachers with extensive teachings also. Just saying, that Hinduism, as a whole, does not refer to the teachings of any particular teacher, but rather a wide range of teachings, with many differing views.
Buddhists do not recognize the Hindu Vedas as sacred texts. They don’t disrespect them either, nor do they disrespect sacred texts of other religions. See the Kalama Sutta: To the Kalamas - the translator’s note especially helps make it clear what it’s about:
“Although this discourse is often cited as the Buddha's carte blanche for following one's own sense of right and wrong, it actually says something much more rigorous than that. Traditions are not to be followed simply because they are traditions. Reports (such as historical accounts or news) are not to be followed simply because the source seems reliable. One's own preferences are not to be followed simply because they seem logical or resonate with one's feelings. Instead, any view or belief must be tested by the results it yields when put into practice; and — to guard against the possibility of any bias or limitations in one's understanding of those results — they must further be checked against the experience of people who are wise. “
And in practice Buddhist teachers never refer to the Vedas in teachings. If they refer to any ancient texts, then it will be the Buddhist sutras that they consult or refer to and they are the scriptural support of Buddhism. It’s not exclusive, they the dharma there is any teaching that supports you on the path so in that sense can include any teaching by anyone in any religion or none that you find is valuable and helps you on the path. It just says to test any teachings you follow, and one is encouraged (in most traditions anyway) to listen to any teaching that one feels inspires one on the path to compassion, wisdom and openness. However, the core teachings that Buddhists go to, if someone was to ask “is this a Buddhist teaching”, are the sutras. The Thevadhan Buddhists only recognize the Pali canon and the Mahayana Buddhists recognize many later sutras that were composed many centuries after Buddha died.
Buddhism also does not have any caste system. In India, anyone of any caste could become a disciple of the Buddha and as monks, there were no distinctions according to their profession, caste etc. And Buddhist countries don't practice a caste system.
I've talked about the differences because that's what you asked for. Of course they also have much in common. Such as the idea of a cycle of existence, of death and rebirth, of karma (though with differing ideas about it in detail), of liberation from samsara.
One thing that is common between Hinduism and Buddhism - the idea of a dharma - or a path that you follow and hold to. Rather than the idea of a search for some kind of an absolute good that applies to everyone no matter what. Which leads to a natural respect for other religions and views.
You are happy following your own path and dharma, having established that it is the right path for you as best you can see, and don't need to have everyone else follow that same path to give you confidence that it is right for you, because of this idea that we have each our own paths to follow.
A good introduction to the teachings common to all the branches of Buddhism, is Walpola Rahula's What the Buddha Taught
As for the methods by which the teachings of the Buddha were preserved in the Pali canon, see What a Buddhist must know by Prayudh Payutto
Is it not clear which is the best for humans?
Only reason for pause for thought would be if the other ones could be "terraformed" quickly in a few centuries - but turns out - that Mars would take at least 1000 years and still it would have no oxygen, only CO2, enough for trees, but humans need air breathers like aqualungs to survive - you'd still choose Earth - and that's on very optimistic projections.
"The Philae lander took this picture 10 km above the ‘head’ of the comet as it descended towards its landing site."
"Rubble-filled depressions appear in sharp relief in this image from the Philae lander, taken as it descended. One, just to the right of centre in the lower part of the image, is almost circular. Pits like this may be the source of the comet’s gas vents, which become progressively more active as it approaches the sun."
Israel Epstein wrote that prior to the Communist takeover, poverty in Tibet was so severe that in some of the worst cases peasants had to hand over children to the manor as household slaves or nangzan, because they were too poor to raise them.[78] On the other hand, Laird asserted that in the 1940s Tibetan peasants were well off and immune to famine, whereas starvation was common in China.[79] According to other sources, the so-called "slaves" were domestic servants (nangtsen) and managers of estates in reality.[80]
In 1904 the British army invaded and held the Tibetan Chumbi Valley, in the border region adjacent to Bhutan and India. Sir Charles Bell was put in charge of the district from September 1904 to November 1905[81] and wrote that slavery was still practiced in Chumbi but had declined greatly over the previous thirty years. He noted that only a dozen or two dozen slaves remained, unlike nearby Bhutan where slavery was more widespread. Bell further remarked, "The slavery in the Chumpi valley was of a very mild type. If a slave was not well treated, it was easy for him to escape into Sikkim and British India."[82]
This is done in Orbiter, and shows the orbit - it has a futuristic spacecraft, but I hope to do it again in near future with a tethered assembly of e.g. Space-X Dragon + fuel tank spinning for Mars gravity - or some other similar arrangement.
It's a "Mars capture orbit" - so the delta v to get into it is actually less than you need to get to the Moon. They could have put something like the lunar module into this orbit - and returned to Earth - with a mission similar to the Apollo ones - that is - except of course the humans couldn't survive the six month journey there, with the Apollo technology.
See: One Ring. The ring was forged by Sauron and as he forged it he permitted a lot of his former power to enter the ring.
"Hush!" said Gandalf from the shadows at the back of the porch. "Evil things do not come into this valley; but all the same we should not name them. The Lord of the Ring is not Frodo, but the master of the Dark Tower of Mordor, whose power is again stretching out over the world!"
“The Ring was trying to get back to its master. It had slipped from Isildur's hand and betrayed him; then when a chance came it caught poor Déagol, and he was murdered; and after that Gollum, and it had devoured him. It could make no further use of him: he was too small and mean; and as long as it stayed with him he would never leave his deep pool again. So now, when its master was awake once more and sending out his dark thought from Mirkwood, it abandoned Gollum. Only to be picked up by the most unlikely person imaginable: Bilbo from the Shire!”
“...Behind that there was something else at work, beyond any design of the Ring-maker. I can put it no plainer than by saying that Bilbo was meant to find the Ring, and not by its maker. In which case you also were meant to have it. And that may be an encouraging thought."
Augmented Reality Takes 'Doctor Who' Fans on Inside TARDIS Tour
If the Tardis was made as small on the outside as an atom it would not absorb much of the heat from the sun, just like a light shining into it.
Of course we don't have "Time Lord technology" if such is possible at all :).
Higher resolution version here: File:Sun Atmosphere Temperature and Density SkyLab.jpg
By comparison, the Earth's atmosphere is only 1.2 milligrams per cm³. Earth's atmosphere density in 285 measurement units. So even 2,000 kms below the apparent surface of the sun, the sun has about a thousandth of the density of the Earth's atmosphere at sea level.
Earth and Moon on same scale as the sun. In future astronauts could go "sun skimming" even below the surface of the sun in this image.
Sky burial site where bodies are put out for vultures to eat - to help the dying person on their way to their next life - considered the best form of burial for ordinary Tibetans when you can manage it.
Gedhun Choekyi Nyima photographed soon before the Chinese government took him in for "protective custody" at age of 6, as the world's youngest political prisoner - and who is now in his mid twenties if still alive - but though the Chinese say he has had a happy normal healthy upbringing with a good education, nobody in the international community has been permitted any contact with him to verify this. In his mid twenties there is no way they can say they are doing this to protect a child from influence of "separatists" which was their original reason given.
This is of course of political importance since traditionally the incarnation of the Panchen Lama chooses the next Dalai Lama when he dies. So the Chinese have selected an alternative "Panchen Lama". Presumably they hope this will be of use to them when the Dalai Lama dies in some way - but he of course is the one who chooses what is going to happen in his next rebirth, nobody else can of course, not the Chinese political leaders surely, who don't even believe in rebirth.
"The Tibetan people’s deepest concern is the threat to the survival of their culture under the prevailing political dispensation, which has carved Tibet into several administrative units with the western half designated as the “Tibet Autonomous Region”, and the areas of eastern half designated variously as “Tibetan Autonomous Prefectures” and “Tibetan Autonomous Counties”, and merged with neighboring Chinese provinces.
The word “Autonomous” applied liberally to the Tibetan areas is nothing more than a cruel joke on the people, for whom all decisions are made in Chinese national and provincial capitals, and enforced with Stalinist brutality.
In the case of the “Tibet Autonomous Region”, decisions are made from Beijing. Similarly, in the case of Tibetan areas in the east, decisions are made from the capitals of the Chinese provinces into which they are merged.
To address this problem, His Holiness asks for the reunification of all Tibetan areas as a single Tibetan administrative entity, enjoying real autonomy, or local self-rule, within the political framework of the People’s Republic of China.
His offer for Tibet to remain within “the political framwork of the People’s Republic of China” is indeed a huge concession and aimed at addressing Beijing’s worst fear, which is the prospect of instability in Tibet and its eventual separation from China. Beijing remains firmly convinced that any attempt to loosen the leash on Tibet would result in a cry for independence.
His Holiness said that if Beijing were to accept his demand for Tibet, he would use his moral authority among the Tibetan people to give up their demand for independence."
" MastCam was originally supposed to have a pair of cameras with zoom capability; the descope, which was done to save $1.5 million, changed that to two fixed-focal-length cameras, one at each extreme of the originally planned zoom capabilities of both cameras. The Planetary Society went on record to state that this action appeared to be penny-wise and pound-foolish, and sent a letter(PDF) to Congress to protest it as well as the other instrument descopes. Several of the descoped instruments were later restored, but the MastCam descope stuck."
This is the highest flying balloon ever at 56 km, on the edge of space
ISAS | BALLOONS:Research on Balloons to Float Over 50km Altitude / Special Feature
JP Aerospace plan to build airships that set off at a level higher than the highest flying balloon ever - huge airships made of such light materials that they couldn't be inflated at ground level.
Maglev track could launch spacecraft into orbit.
This track is magnetically elevated.
Then, more exotic, is the idea of a kind of "moving walkway" Maglev track, that elevates into the sky under centrifugal force". There are many ideas like this, but this is one of the simplest and most practical of them.
First, there's a long history of people doubting this, goes back to 1974
Moon landing conspiracy theories - origins. But these tend to be non scientists mainly. Or with limited understanding of spa...
First, there's a long history of people doubting this, goes back to 1974
Moon landing conspiracy theories - origins. But these tend to be non scientists mainly. Or with limited understanding of spaceflight and astronomy.
To answer your question, they don't prove it because it is already clear that NASA went to the Moon, if you look at the evidence. There is nothing extra for anyone to prove.
In detail:
The basic thing here is - that the Moon is further away than most realize. The spacecraft on the Moon are far too small to see with even the Hubble space telescope never mind Earth based telescopes. But they have been spotted by modern spacecraft in orbit around the Moon.
As for doubting if they went there well I think the rocks returned bear witness enough - and you can watch the astronauts actually pick up a rock on the Moon in the videos - and see it back here on the Earth, and it is the same shape / colour / matches the context of the place they picked it up on the Moon. For numerous samples for every mission.
And they have micro-meteorite damage throughout. Even nowadays, even with millions of dollars worth of modern equipment I don't think you could simulate a single lunar rock with all its microscopic detail of micrometeorite impacts throughout. So can't be Earth materials. And no way could they be lunar meteorites which were only discovered in Antarctica long after the landings.
And scientists continue to learn new things from those rocks, studying them to answer questions that hadn't even been raised back in the 1970s, and using machines that detect things that we didn't know to look for back then.
Apart from that - I think that nowadays many people forget how primitive our technology was back then. Things that anyone can do with your digital phone or laptop or tablet were way beyond the most advanced technology available to the superpowers of USA and Russia back in the 1970s. The "State of the art" back then was Kubrick's "2001 a Space Odyssey" which seemed advanced at the time and was hugely expensive with much of the material they shot ending on the cutting room floor - but looking back, many (not all) of the special effect sequences seem dated, especially its Moon sequences.
Do you find it realistic? Would it fool a modern audience into thinking this is something that actually happened on the Moon rather than in a studio set?
At the time it did, but we were naive back then, not used to modern special effects.
There is no way would a modern audience mistake the Moon sequences of 2001 for an actual video of a lunar mission. Just looks like people in spacesuits walking slowly in an obviously fake (to modern eyes) landscape, mostly shot with fixed viewpoints. Same would be true for any "faked footage" of that time, if that ever did happen - we just didn't have the ability to fake such things back then.
I've been told in a couple of comments that some modern viewers do find the 2001 Moon sequence realistic to the extent that they could believe it was shot on the Moon like the Apollo videos - if so - well - I suppose that is subjective. Some movie special effects are more convincing to some people than to others. However, try looking at it again. Here are some of the tell tale signs:
But to anyone keen on astronomy who has been following the discoveries about the Moon as they unfolded during and after the mission, all that is beside the point really. There is just no way it could be fake. When I first heard the hoax allegations a few years back, I didn't have a moment of hesitation or doubt, it was just obviously not right - and then when I read them in detail - they got so many things wrong that almost anyone with a fairly basic understanding of astronomy would pick up on right away.
Actually, I have more reason to believe that humans landed on the Moon than I have to believe that I was born where my birth certificate says I was born.
I can't prove where I was born. I've got a birth certificate, and my parents told me where I was born, got childhood photographs, even a video of the place they say I was born, in which I appear briefly as a small child. But all of those could be faked in principle :).
If you get me to prove that I was born where I think I was, I can't prove it absolutely to the standard that is required by the Moon hoax theorists. It would be pretty hard to anyway. But that doesn't give me the slightest moment of doubt that I was born there :).
But you can prove it for the Moon, seems to me, even to the standard required by the Moon hoax theorists - apart from any other reason - because of the impossibility of faking those rocks with their micrometeorite impact features and the evidence that they are indeed the rocks picked up by the astronauts on the Moon.
And we now have photographs of the landing sites from orbit too.
It's sort of a bit like asking airpline pilots why they haven't disproved the flat earth hypothesis :).
Lots of more material on this in answers to related questions, including for instance the recent lunar orbital photographs of the Apollo landing sites see:
and the other answers on this page:
Did Neil Armstrong really land on the moon?
They both cause tides. The lunar tides are higher than the solar ones.
When the Moon and Sun are on the same side or on opposite sides of the Earth then they work together, and you get the "spring t...
(more)They both cause tides. The lunar tides are higher than the solar ones.
When the Moon and Sun are on the same side or on opposite sides of the Earth then they work together, and you get the "spring tides" which are especially high and especially low.
This happens every 14 days when the sun and Moon are roughly in the same spot in the sky and then again when they are opposite each other
Side note: these times of the spring tides are also the times in the lunar month when you get solar eclipses, and lunar eclipses respectively - though - those need a more precise alignment than tides. Eclipses only happen in the "Eclipse seasons" which lasts between 31 and 37 days, and occurs every 173 days, just short of six months. Since the lunar month of 28 days is shorter than the eclipse season, we are guaranteed at least one lunar and one solar partial eclipse every six moonths, though total eclipses are rarer. Lunar eclipses are visible anywhere on the nighth side of Earth at the time it occurs, but solar eclipses are only visible from the places that the shadow of the Moon passes over. See Eclipse Statistics.
When the Moon and Sun are at right angles to each other as seen from the Earth you get the neap tides which are much less extreme because the sun tide counteracts the effect of the lunar tide instead of working together with it
(see also schoolphysics ::Tides)
Here is an animation of the spring and neap tides
Animation of spring and neap tides - the spring tides happen when the solar and lunar bulges are in the same position.
If you live near the sea, as one of my sisters does - you can see this easily. Every two weeks you get really high tides, and then they go really low as well so you can walk out for a long distance - and the river mouth outside her house nearly dries out completely at the lowest tides on the spring tides.
Also - the tides get later every day, by a little under half an hour each day.
As Arun Prasath explained - then when the Moon is overhead it causes a tidal bulge on the same side as the Moon and the opposite side of the Moon.
So, in the simplest case, the tides happen soon after the Moon passes directly overhead - so that you'd get the spring tides at midday and midnight. The neap tides, caused when the Moon is at right angles to the sun - they happen at 6 a.m. and 6 p.m.
However it is rarely as simple as that. Reason is because of the shape of the land. Tides start in the open sea, but then they have to weave in and out of the land masses. Here on the West Coast of Scotland, inner hebrides especially - then some of the islands are really close to the mainland with narrow inlets in between with strong tidal "rips" strong currents as the tides move around the island. And East coast of Scotland has a different tide time from the West coast.
Here for instance are some of the tide tables for the West coast of Scotland
BBC Weather - Tide Tables - Oban
Try comparing a few different places - e.g. (as of writing this - obviously will depend when you read this) - Stornaway tomorrow has high tide at 1620 while Rosyth has high tide at 1147.
In fact, the North sea coast actually gets its tides two days later than the open Atlantic - their Spring tides don't happen at full Moon, but two days after full Moon, because it takes that long for the tidal "wave" to get there.
North Sea - photo by NASA. Surrounded on all sides by UK, Holland, Denmark, Sweden and Norway. The North Sea has its high tide two days later than the open Atlantic, for instance its spring tides - the highest tides - happen two days after full Moon. That’s because it takes that long for the tidal “wave” to get there. It takes it six hours just to traverse the English Channel - the East end of the channel experiences high tide when the West end experiences low tide and vice versa. Because of its complex coastline then many parts of the UK are like that. Coastal places quite close to each other can have tides hours apart.
On this chart, the white lines are "cotidal" lines - all the places along those lines experience the spring tides at the same time.
Amplitude is indicated by color, and the white lines are cotidal differing by 1 hr. The curved arcs around the amphidromic points show the direction of the tides, each indicating a synchronized 6 hour period.
And - some parts of the world have only one tide rather than two.
Here the places with diurnal tides - so just one tide a day - are marked in yellow. The ones with two high tides a day are marked with red coastlines, and others shown in blue have mixed tides somewhere between the two. See NOAA's National Ocean Service: Low tide
In the English Channel you get a curious phenomenon of the “double high tide” at Southhampton, for instance, the high tide “stands” for a long time with a slight reduction of the tide levels in the middle. It’s because of the English Channel - the tides around the UK set up an oscillation such that when it is high tide at one end of the channel it is low tide at the other and vice versa. South Hampton is right in the middle and the oscillation sets up other smaller oscillations which cause the double tide phenomenon. Explanation here: English Channel Double Tides
This animation supposedly shows it though I don’t find it easy to read bu tyou can see the oscillation clearly enough with high tide at one end and low tide at the other end of the channel. Here red is high tide and blue is low tide.
But - at any particular place, the spring tides are always at roughly the same time. So for instance if you get diurnal tides, and with your highest tides at midday and midnight, then every 14 days you will get your highest tides at the same place at those same times. If you get your highest tides at 4 pm and 4 am, then again every 14 days you get them at the same time. And the low tides 6 hours later.
So - for someone who doesn't live by the sea, the tides seem unpredictable. But if you live at some particular location close to the sea, and if you can see the sea - and especially if you have need to go out and do things that depend on knowing the tides - then you soon get to know how the tides work wherever it is you live. Especially, you get to know what time of day the spring tides happen for your area - both the high and the low tides. And once you know that, and if you know the phase of the Moon, it's not too hard to work out when the high and low tides are any time of the lunar month.
There are other factors as well. The Earth and Moon don't follow perfectly circular orbits and the height of a tide varies as the inverse cube of the distance to the gravitating body - so small changes in distance can make a significant difference to the height of the tide.
The highest spring tides occur when the Moon and Sun are both at or near their closest points to the Earth. Earth is closest to the sun around 2nd January, so highest spring tides are in winter. If accompanied by a storm, they will be even higher. It is furthest away around 2nd July so the lowest tides are in summer.
The position of the Moon in its cycle is also relevant. The Moon has a complex continually changing orbit, but is closest to the Earth (perigee) every 29 days. - the so called Supermoon. So when this coincides with the perihelion (when Earth is closest to sun) the tides are at their highest.
Then storms far out at sea and other weather effects can increase the height of the highest tides.
Aftermath of a King tide
Actually - where I live now I'm - I think less than a mile from the sea - but I can't see it from my house, and don't go down to the sea shore often enough to have got used to how the tides work - could easily look them up but don't kind of know them by heart. So I don't know what time of day the spring tides are here actually. But if I lived in the village down by the sea shore less than a mile away - I would probably be well aware of what the tides are.
Wikipedia has a good article on tides:
See also Misconceptions about tides.
"Exposure of the retina to intense visible light causes damage to its light-sensitive rod and cone cells. The light triggers a series of complex chemical reactions within the cells which damages their ability to respond to a visual stimulus, and in extreme cases, can destroy them. The result is a loss of visual function which may be either temporary or permanent, depending on the severity of the damage. When a person looks repeatedly or for a long time at the Sun without proper protection for the eyes, this photochemical retinal damage may be accompanied by a thermal injury - the high level of visible and near-infrared radiation causes heating that literally cooks the exposed tissue. This thermal injury or photocoagulation destroys the rods and cones, creating a small blind area. The danger to vision is significant because photic retinal injuries occur without any feeling of pain (there are no pain receptors in the retina), and the visual effects do not occur for at least several hours after the damage is done
Eye Safety During Solar Eclipses
Yes there are plans, by the Mars society. But there are many problems with their ideas.
They say it will take around 1000 years to get to the point where you can grow trees and humans can get around...
(more)Yes there are plans, by the Mars society. But there are many problems with their ideas.
They say it will take around 1000 years to get to the point where you can grow trees and humans can get around with oxygen breathers like aqualungs. Then another several mllennia to get to the point where you have a breathable atmosphere. Chris McKay estimated 100,000 years to a breathable atmosphere. This is all assuming mirrors in orbit to keep the planet warm along with greenhouse gas creating factories on Mars so quite high technology.
WHY TERRAFORMING MIGHT NOT BE AS EASY AS YOU THINK, OR AS IT SEEMS IN THE MARS TRILOGY
OXYGEN
First, the problem with oxygen is - that it is easy to look at the amount of oxygen that plants can produce and suppose they will create an oxygen atmosphere quickly. But plants consume as well as create oxygen in daily, yearly and lifetime cycles. And over its lifetime a plant eventually decays or is eaten and the oxygen it creates is consumed again so plants are oxygen neutral just as they are carbon neutral if their constituent carbon is returned to the atmosphere.
The most common photosynthetic reaction gives off oxygen, but also takes CO2 out of the atmosphere
BBC - GCSE Bitesize: Photosynthesis
6CO2 + 6H2O
C6H12O6 + 6O2
So in order to build up oxygen in the atmosphere you have to take CO2 out of it, e.g. as peat, coal, oil etc. Turns out you need to take enough CO2 out, to cover entire surface of Mars with organics to many meters depth. That's obviously going to take time.
For instance, peat accumulates at about 0.5-1 mm a year in ideal conditions, so it would take a thousand years to accumulate a meter - and that's on Earth in favourable conditions. What is peat moss?
It's also harder on Mars than on Earth because
So it is likely to take six times longer on Mars than it does on Earth to generate the same amount of oxygen from the same land area. And you need ideal conditions over much of the surface of Mars to accumulate all these organics.
CO2 NO GOOD AS A BUFFER GAS
Also you need a buffer gas, as high levels of CO2 are poisonous to humans, so you need to find a source for huge quantities of nitrogen before the atmosphere can be breathable. Instead of a minor constituent, the nitrogen has to be the main constituent of the atmosphere (or some other buffer gas).
WATER
Also - it is not at all clear Mars has enough water. Yes it has water at its poles enough to cover it to a depth of at least twelve meters.
But it also has desert regions that are dry not just on the surface but for hundreds of meters down.
And the mid lattitudes are still dry for some meters below the surface, though with underlying layers of ice. There are many flow features showing that it was wet at some time in the past, but at present it is probably as dry as the Sahara (which also has water deep down).
Cydonia: Martian Mystery Region
Melt the polar ice caps and just let the water spread out and it might be like pouring water into the Sahara desert.
Yes there is water bound in the sand on Mars, as Curiosity discovered (NASA - NASA Mars Rover Fully Analyzes First Soil Samples ), but there is water bound in the sands of the Sahara desert also, and similar amounts of water in the Sahara sands as there are on Mars. The water boiled off at 835 degrees C. Curiosity Rover Makes Big Water Discovery in Mars Dirt, a 'Wow Moment'
It's a high water content compared to the very dry moon, but not compared to Earth. And the water is bound and not available for life to use.
Even dry granite is often 3% water content r/askscience
Releasing water in the Martian ice caps for terraforming could be like pouring water into the desert sands of Sahara (here the Lybian desert) - as the equatorial regions are thought to be dry for kilometers below the surface
So, I'm skeptical that there is enough water left on Mars to terraform the planet without importing it by impacting comets etc.
Even with enough ice for twelve meters of water over entire surface of Mars, and even considering that there are also large quantities of ice buried below the surface outside of the polar regions - and that the Northern ocean bed is at a lower altitude - still is there enough to compensate for the dryness of the equatorial regions with no water for depths of hundreds of meters for most of the region?
It seems a wasteful way to use all that ice anyway if you wanted to use it to form human habitats.
WHY SPEND MILLENNIA TERRAFORMING MARS WHEN FOR LESS COST YOU CAN CONSTRUCT A SPACE HABITAT IN DECADES?
So, personally I'm rather skeptical it is ever going to be worth doing, especially since space habitats like Stanford Torus are much easier to build and more controlled, and can be completed in a few decades, rather than in millennia.
These could be in free space, or on the Moon.
If on the Moon - then - you might need to spin the habitats for extra gravity depending on what humans need. And spinning habitats may be easier to construct in space.
Depending on what humans need for health, space habitats spinning for gravity may be easier to construct than similarly spinning habitats on a lunar or planetary surface.
WHY SPACE HABITATS WON'T BE A PLACE FOR HUMANS TO MIGRATE TO, IN NEAR FUTURE
I don't see either though as a solution to problems of finding somewhere to live on Earth - because - it is far easier to build even a Buckminster Fuller "cloud nine" city - or a sea city floating on the sea - than any kind of a space habitat. Apart from anything else, you have air to breath, and can build it or repair it without spacesuits, and can use lightweight construction, no need to hold in tens of tons per square meter of atmosphere.
Instead - I see space habitats as surely only going to arise if we have a reason to be in space. Could be tourists. Could be a retirement home. Could be space mining. Some reason why you would want to spend ten or a hundred million dollars on a home in space when you can construct the same size home or larger for perhaps a few hundred thousand dollars on the Earth. I think we may well end up with space habitats with tens or hundreds of thousands of people eventually. But will we ever have them with millions, and billions of people?
Also you need a reason to live in space where you need to put on a spacesuit to go anywhere. I'm sure space enthusiasts will want to live in space - but - once it becomes commonplace - it will seem like living in Antarctica - the sort of thing it is cool to do for a few years but few people really want to do it full time. And even if you do have a community start up in space - the children are going to look at Earth where there is air to breath for free, and flowing streams and entire oceans of water - and everything is so much easier, and want to migrate back to Earth, I think.
AT ANY RATE TERRAFORMING MARS IS HARDER THAN YOU WOULD THINK FROM THE MARS TRILOGY
At any rate, it is far far harder to terraform Mars than you might think from the science fiction stories, which often suggest that we could do it in a couple of centuries.
And there are many more issues involved. Here are more details:
DETAILS
First - the Earth itself took hundreds of millions of years to "terraform" - a process we don't understand that well.
Then, after that it went into a snowball phase several times when it was almost lifeless again - and only recovered, not through action of life - but because of continental drift and volcanoes bringing CO2 to the surface.
So I think a lot of people have this naive idea - that we just need to seed Mars with life, give it a bit of encouragement, and within a few centuries, almost by itself, with a bit of guidance, it will turn into Earth, with maybe a few mirrors in space and greenhouse factories to help it along.
But even a duplicate Earth, same in all respects except without life, probably couldn't be terraformed as easily as that. And Mars is tremendously different from Earth.
This suggests that if you did manage to terraform Mars - that it wouldn't last for long on geological timescales.
And - it's a long process also. On Earth it took millions of years.
THOUSAND YEAR LONG PROJECT
The Mars Society hope that with mega technology - giant space mirrors to reflect more light onto Mars to warm it up, and greenhouse gas factories and such like - that it could take as short a time as 1000 years - plus several more millennia to get the oxygen levels up.
But - is that what our descendants, 1000 years from now, will want us to do to Mars?
One thing that's clear - with those sorts of timescales, that we aren't doing it for ourselves.
For quite a few centuries it would be hardly changed. And all the way to the end of that 1000 years and for perhaps 100,000 years after it - you'd still need oxygen - and most of the time, need complete spacesuits to get around.
And - it's a high technology project, obviously, all the way through. So - will we maintain a high technology civilization for a thousand years to complete it? The people who want to terraform Mars often see it as a way for humanity to survive in case we lose our technology - but it's almost the opposite of that. You can't see it succeeding unless we keep a high level of technology for at least a thousand years and probably far longer than that.
UNTERRAFORMING
Then - once terraformed - it's going to gradually unterraform - the only question is how long it takes - at least - unless you keep supplying comets to replenish the atmosphere - if so - sustained long term megatechnology.
What seems pretty clear is - that nature won't just keep it terraformed for us automatically. What we see on Mars is the end result of Mars which might well have had life in the past.
And Earth's biological cycles, which keep Earth terraformed, won't work on Mars because of the cold, lower gravity, and long term - lack of magnetic field and continental drift.
I don't think that necessarily means it is impossible. But means that any solution to terraform Mars would need to take account of all these differences - and also need to look into the future - and decide - are we doing this for our descendants 30 generations from now? Or perhaps 30,000 generations from now if you allow an extra 100,000 years to build up an oxygen atmosphere on Mars?
If so - why? And will it matter for them that Mars would unterraform? What would the implications be for our descendants even further into the future, say a few 100,000 generations from now, as Mars loses it's atmosphere again and its water and returns to its current lifeless state, or some other state?
RESPONSIBILITY TO OUR DESCENDANTS
With the Mars society plan, we are doing this to help our descendants perhaps 30,000 generations from now (100,000 years). If doing it that way, then we probably should also think about our descendants 300,000 generations from now (a million years or so)
I think we have a responsibility to those far distant people - who - well won't be exactly people as in that they will have evolved to new species long before then - but whatever or whoever they are - are stuck on a planet that we attempted to terraform which is gradually unterraforming around them - and may well have lost their technology by then.
It's an awesome thing to change the entire future of a whole planet - even if it does work. Especially also since - maybe if you set about things in a different way, using knowledge we don't have yet, but might have, say a century from now, maybe the whole process could be made far easier and take a shorter time to a better end result.
There is no hurry to get started on a 1000 year project, not if it is not yet totally clear that it's the best thing for us to do.
That needs to be thought through first!
And - lots of things to go wrong.
See my Trouble With Terraforming Mars
And
Imagined Colours Of Future Mars - What Happens If We Treat A Planet As A Giant Petri Dish?
But who knows - in the future maybe we might do projects like this. Not impossible, in a long stable civilization - and maybe with lifetimes extended, people living for tens of thousands of years etc etc, then you might get the understanding and knowledge needed to do stuff like this - and also to understand its consequences.
I think is great to think over ideas -but to actually attempt it now - especially - in some simple minded way just throwing microbes onto Mars and hoping they turn it into a copy of Earth - that's not going to work. And adding mirrors and greenhouse gases - again - just too crude, when we don't even understand how Earth works too well, and Mars is so different - and so much to go wrong.
PARATERRAFORMING MARS
We could paraterraform Mars - cover it with greenhouses. It's another future possibility which may seem less controversial. You have humans living there right away (assuming we can stand the low gravity that is) - and eventually they spread out over the surface of Mars. In effect this is what SpaceX and Mars One intend to do, a tiny start on paraterraforming Mars - putting habitats on the planets for humans to live in.
But I think we should think long and hard before deciding to do that also - because it also is irreversible.
The thing is, as soon as you introduce life to Mars - you start to transform the planet, and at our present level of knowledge of both Mars and life - results would be unpredictable. Even if you only intend to live in greenhouses, still life would escape your habitats and there seems at leaste a reasonable chance of various potential habitats for life on the surface of Mars. If they exist, eventually life would find them.
And we don't know enough to predict what would happen, how life would transform Mars - not at all clear that it would transform it in a way that humans would like.
And we only have the one Mars in our solar system. Once we have done something irreversible to it -we can't roll back and start again.
There may well be other Mars like planets in our galaxy - but they are many light years away if they exist, and we can't hope to get to them in the near future. So we can't "replace Mars" with a new planet, if we experiment with it and our experiment is a failure.
WHAT WE CAN DO INSTEAD
I think that it is far too soon to think about migrating away from Earth, if we ever do that. Instead focus on exploration and discovery. And go to space when there is a reason to be there.
In particular, the Moon is close to Earth, far easier to recover from disasters, accessible to tourists, has more resources than we thought before.
As well as that the Near Earth Orbits are numerous with many resources that could be used to construct space habitats, and of far more interest than we thought it was.
And we can build spaceships to travel to the other planets and Antarctica type settlements to study them from orbit - once we have the capability to do this. I think that is still several decades away myself - SpaceX may be able to handle the engineering to get mass of humans to other planets - but reliable closed system habitats for humans to live in for years on end may be another matter.
However, I see n problem with it in principle - so long as it is done with care not to contaminate them with Earth life.
The Moon is the obvious starting point though. And is far more interesting than you might think. If you find the Moon boring, chances are that you'd find Mars just a boring once the novelty wore off.
Things we can do on the Moon:
As for Mars, it is of great interest I think, but not as a place to terraform or colonize, at least not right now. It is just not that good for humans.
But - I think it is a fascinating place to explore and may contain many answers to puzzles about the origins of life. I think it needs to be explored like the Antarctic lakes below the ice surface - with great care not to contaminate it with Earth life. That suggests continuing to explore it by missions from the Earth - or else by telepresence from orbit around Mars. At least until we know more about what is there and what effect Earth life would have on the planet.
And the best people to explore Mars long term right now I think are exobiologists. That is if there is life there. With support staff of course. But they will be the ones motivated enough and interested enough. Geologists also. They will find it endlessly fascinating while the rest of us, after novelty wears off, would just see lots of grayish reddish rocks that each look much like the other to untrained eyes.
Take the photos of Mars and imagine that someone told you this is somewhere on the Earth not on Mars. I.e. take away the novelty aspect of "this is Mars" from the scene. Then add, that this place is so heavily polluted (say) that it is impossible to go out of doors without a spacesuit. And that you have to build your buildings with few windows and heavily constructed as the place has lost most of its atmosphere.
Would you want to live there? Surely not. Though you might want to visit it for a while.
This question has been asked several times in different ways so editing my answer from those to create this one:
What is the most cost effective way for us to terraform Mars?
At 1:45 "If you look inside a computer, you find an impressive assembly of basic mechanisms. Some of them are duplicated many times in one computer"
Wikipedia article about it, range keeper.
These computers are based on direct analogue connections between things and don't need to use numbers and don't have boolean operations.
Mars geological epochs(more)
- The oldest Martian epoch is the Noachian period, period of oceans, first few hundred million years
- The next period is the Hesperian period...
Mars geological epochs
- The oldest Martian epoch is the Noachian period, period of oceans, first few hundred million years
- The next period is the Hesperian period, period of floods, with a second ocean forming briefly a billion years after the first.
- The final geological period is the Amazonian period which we are in now, with the atmosphere a near vacuum and the surface almost entirely dry though still with some traces of surface liquid water able to interact with the atmosphere either now or in the recent geological past (isotope measurements by Phoenix show this).
From that article:
"Two oceans have been proposed: 4 billion years ago, when warmer conditions prevailed, and also 3 billion years ago when subsurface ice melted, possibly as a result of enhanced geothermal activity, creating outflow channels that drained the water into areas of low elevation."
One of the Flow Like Features which form briefly in spring in the south polar region around dark dune spots inside Richardson crater. These may be caused by liquid fresh water trapped under ice and melted by the solid state greenhouse effect, details below. Just a thin layer of water - it's not like a flood of water, just a few mms perhaps.
Animation Credits: Collegium Budapest, Mars Astrobiology Group
"All right," said Sam, laughing with the rest. "But what about these Tree-men, thes...(more)
"All right," said Sam, laughing with the rest. "But what about these Tree-men, these giants, as you might call them? They do say that one bigger than a tree was seen up away beyond the North Moors not long back ... But this one was as big as an elm tree, and walking – walking seven yards to a stride, if it was an inch."
"Who's they?"
"My cousin Hal for one. He works for Mr Boffin at Overhill and goes up to the Northfarthing for the hunting. He saw one."
"Says he did, perhaps. Your Hal's always saying he's seen things' and maybe he sees things that aren't there."
"But this one was as big as an elm tree, and walking - walking seven yards to a stride, if it was an inch."
"Then I bet it wasn't an inch. What he saw was an elm tree, as like as not."
"But this one was walking, I tell you' and there ain't no elm tree on the North Moors."
"Then Hal can't have seen one," said Ted. There was some laughing and clapping; the audience seemed to think that Ted had scored a point.
...
He was immensely interested in everything: in the Black Riders, in Elrond, and Rivendell, in the Old Forst, and Tom Bombadill, in the Mines of Moria, and in Lothlorien and Gladriel. He made them describe the Shire and its country over and over again. He said an odd thing at this point. 'You never see any, hm, any Ents round there, do you?'' he asked. 'Well, not Ents, Entwives I should really say.'
Entwives?' said Pippin. 'Are they like you at all?'
'Yes, hm, well no: I do not really know now', said Treebeard thoughtfully. 'But they would like your country, so I just wondered.'
"Their peril is almost entirely due to the unreasoning fear which they inspire (like ghosts). They have no great physical power against the fearless; but what they have, and the fear that they inspire, is enormously increased in darkness"
"The exploration and use of outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, shall be carried out for the benefit and in the interests of all countries, irrespective of their degree of economic or scientific development, and shall be the province of all mankind.
Outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, shall be free for exploration and use by all States without discrimination of any kind, on a basis of equality and in accordance with international law, and there shall be free access to all areas of celestial bodies.
There shall be freedom of scientific investigation in outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, and States shall facilitate and encourage international co-operation in such investigation.
"We are here to help end the Chinese occupation of Tibet and to support the fundamental human rights of th...(more)
"We are here to help end the Chinese occupation of Tibet and to support the fundamental human rights of the Tibetan people."
Free-Tibet.org
Without seeking independence for Tibet, the Central Tibetan Administration strives for the creation of a political entity comprising the three traditional provinces of Tibet; Such an entity should enjoy a status of genuine national regional autonomy; This autonomy should be governed by the popularly-elected legislature and executive through a democratic process and should have an independent judicial system; As soon as the above status is agreed upon by the Chinese government, Tibet would not seek separation from, and remain within, the People's Republic of China;
Until the time Tibet is transformed into a zone of peace and non-violence, the Chinese government can keep a limited number of armed forces in Tibet for its protection; The Central Government of the People's Republic of China has the responsibility for the political aspects of Tibet's international relations and defense, whereas the Tibetan people should manage all other affairs pertaining to Tibet, such as religion and culture, education, economy, health, ecological and environmental protection;
The Chinese government should stop its policy of human rights violations in Tibet and the transfer of Chinese population into Tibetan areas; To resolve the issue of Tibet, His Holiness the Dalai Lama shall take the main responsibility of sincerely pursuing negotiations and reconciliation with the Chinese government.
His Holiness's Middle Way Approach For Resolving the Issue of Tibet
""Based on the results of our experiment, we expect this soft ice that can liquify perhaps a few days per year, perhaps a few hours a day, almost anywhere on Mars. So going from mid lattitudes all the way to the polar regions. This is a small amount of liquid water. But for a bacteria, that would be a huge swimming pool - a little droplet of water is a huge amount of water for a bacteria. So, a small amount of water is enough for you to be able to create conditions for Mars to be habitable today'. And we believe this is possible in the shallow subsurface, and even the surface of the Mars polar region for a few hours per day during the spring." (transcript from 2 minutes into the video onwards)"
These are Flow Like Features, found in a few spots in the South polar region, thought to be possibly due to melt water beneath a covering "solid state greenhouse" layer of transparent ice. If so they are particularly habitable for life.
These are the "Warm Seasonal Flows" - not to be confused with the Dark Dune Streaks that are superficially a bit similar. So far only hypothesis is - due to liquid water also because they only form when temperatures are far too high for dry ice, occur even in equatorial regions on sun facing slopes, and are seasonal, grow in spring, fade away in winter, and no correlation with the wind and dust storms.
Before and after image of Phoenix from orbit showing how it was damaged by the winter time meters thick dry ice layers that covered it in between the two images. Phoenix Mars Lander is Silent, New Image Shows Damage
Droplets of what may be salty brine on the legs of Phoenix. One hypothesis is that they formed due to ice and salt mixed together that landed on its legs during the landing - and then formed liquid. If this can happen on the Phoenix legs, it may well also happen naturally on the surface when conditions are right. If so then that means Phoenix landed in a sensitive area on Mars where life could flourish, which wasn't known before its launch.
And conceivably life from Earth could have reproduced inside those droplets also. They would be very salty if the theory is right, so most Earth life would not be able to reproduce there. And may have been far too cold for life. But there are microbes that could reproduce there if not too salty and warm enough, and some of those have been detected in spacecraft assembly clean rooms. So not totally impossible I think, But at the same time given that the spacecraft are thoroughly cleaned before launch, and the sterilization on the way there etc, reasonable chance that nothing happened.
Microbes on Mars, in the more interesting case, would be more like a microbial version of ET than a tiger
Colors represent the probability that Mars Global Surveyor will be in the ionosphere when orbiting at 400 kilometer's altitude. Blue is a low probability, meaning the spacecraft is usually in the solar wind and the ionosphere is below the spacecraft. Yellow and red show where the ionosphere often protrudes above 400 kilometers altitude. (Credit: David Mitchell, UC Berkeley.)
The Solar Wind at Mars
"1936 proved to be a another landmark year for the BIS. Cleator published a book, Rockets Through Space, to inspire space fans, and ‘Prof’ A.M. Low established a London Branch on October 27th. A month later, in the Masons Arms, Maddox Street, where they held their regular meetings, it was decided to make London the location for the society’s headquarters.
"One of the first London members was a 19-year-old called Arthur C. Clarke. Another teenage BIS member, Eric Burgess, took the initiative to launch a solid-fuel rocket from his home in Manchester and was promptly charged under the 1875 Explosives Act. Burgess went on to become a chairman of the BIS and, besides promoting the possibility of using nuclear power to propel spacecraft, gave Carl Sagan the idea to put a message for extraterrestrials onboard the Pioneer space probes that were launched in the early 1970s."
Reaching for the Stars
Well the ISS does its orbital maneuvers using docked spacecraft usually (though it can also use its own engines in the Zvezda module), and doing enough of the same would get you enough delta v to g...
(more)Well the ISS does its orbital maneuvers using docked spacecraft usually (though it can also use its own engines in the Zvezda module), and doing enough of the same would get you enough delta v to get to the Moon's orbit eventually, one gentle nudge at a time. The somewhat fragile structure of the ISS doesn't matter here if the nudges are gentle enough.
Sso would depend on the fuel capacity and capabilities of those spacecraft, and whether they can keep supplying it as it gets further from the Earth.
Typically it boosts a couple of meters per second a month.
How does the International Space Station maintain its orbit and what propellant does it use?
Delta v to get to low Moon orbit from LEO is 4.01 km / second
The ISS orbit is highly inclined
I'm not sure if you need to change inclination to get to a lunar orbit, would just end up in a highly inclined lunar orbit.
DO YOU NEED TO CHANGE INCLINATION TO AN EQUATORIAL ORBIT TO GET TO THE MOON?
Unless I'm missing something there. I can't think of an example in practice of a spaceship entering orbit around the Moon or another planet or moon at a high inclination like this.
But theoretically, don't see why you need to change inclination to match the Moon.
The two orbits, the orbit of the Moon and the orbit of a highly boosted ISS would intersect, because any pair of orbits intersects in two places.
Of course wouldn't make it a circular orbit same as the Moon before you rendezvoous. That's possible but wasteful of fuel.
Instead use a elliptical orbit. And arrange so the major axis is in the equatorial plane. Do that - an elliptical orbit inclined, but with major axis in the equatorial plane - and eventually that orbit will intersect the lunar orbit.
You'd do that by boosting at the opposite side of the Earth from the point in its orbit where you plan to rendezvous with the Moon.
Boost each time when the ISS is crossing the equator at perigee - that would keep the perigee low (boosts don't make any difference to the altitude at the point in the orbit where you do the boost) - and raise the apogee.
Because you do your boosts when it crosses the equator - the apogee diametrically opposite in the orbit would also lie in the Earth's equatorial plane.
And when raised high enough then the Moon would intersect it.
Then when that happens, then at some point the moon will be in the right place to capture the ISS with a small delta v to go into capture orbit, -then more delta v to lower and circularize to low Moon orbit.
And you aren't aiming for a rendezvous with the Moon, just an orbital insertion, using gravity of the Moon.
So, is very different from e.g. trying to dock one spaceship with another at a different inclination which you can't do without use of a lot of delta v.
It probably wouldn't be a stable orbit, inclined like that - not sure - some inclined orbits are stable, but the Moon I think is basically spherical unlike Earth so probably would then be gradually perturbed by the Earth and Moon gravity, and flatten out into the plane of the Moon's orbit.
(I'd appreciate corrections from anyone expert in orbital maneuvers as it's a tricky subject I know).
FUEL NEEDED - AT LEAST 143 PROGRESS M1S LOADED WITH FUEL TO CAPACITY
So - well anyway - assuming for now that no extra fuel is needed for inclination changes or Moon orbit capture for an inclined orbit like that - if it just used the same amount of fuel it does for normal station keeping - doubled them to start with but would soon leave the Earth atmosphere - so it goes into higher and higher orbit, then that's 2000 months or 167 years to get to LLO (Low Lunar Orbit).
The Progress M1 can carry 1,950 kg of fuel, and 2,230 kg of cargo, total of 4180 kgs if it is all devoted to fuel.
ISS uses 8,000 pounds of propellant a year or about 3,600 kg for station keeping.
Higher Altitude Improves Station's Fuel Economy
So - lets suppose an entire Progresss M1 carried only fuel to the ISS. Then that's enough for 1 year of thrust (roughly), so that's a delta v of about 24 m/second.
Anyway that single load of a Progress M1 is clearly nowhere near enough to get it to the Moon. After all it needs 167 years of this not just one year, to get there.
So in total, 167 years at 3600 tons a year, that's 601 tons of fuel. Around 143 of the Progress M1s.
(This is a rough calculation - hopefully in the right ballpark)
I think in principle could be done, with enough rocket launches.
By sending several Progresses a year - you could do it within a few decades even. But would be expensive and require a huge number of launches to do it that way.
NEED TO BOOST THE FUEL AS ISS GETS TO HIGHER ORBITS
As it goes higher then you would need to send more of them, because more fuel would be needed just to boost the Progress itself to reach the speeds needed to rendezvous with the ISS
Although in an elliptical orbit with perigee not much changed from its present one, the speed at perigee would keep increasing in order to make the apogee further from the Earth. So the Progress would need to accelerate to catch up with the ISS.
Eventually probably would send them in pairs, with one Progress acting as a kind of a final stage to boost the other one up to the ISS as it gets faster and faster with apogee higher and higher.
The ISS itself is only around 419.5 tons so the 601 tons of fuel would outweigh the ISS if I've got that right. Facts and Figures
So - anyway not sure it is worth working it out in detail, but you'd need a fair bit more than 143 of the Progress launches.
LIFETIME OF THE ISS
But there's another thing to consider, that in the harsh conditions of space, the modules only have a lifetime of a few decades, before they deteriorate too much - things like structural weakness due to the continual changes of temperature between day and night, cracks beginning to form etc.
So beyond 2020, then the ISS most of its modules will be de-orbited though some of the newer ones, a couple of Russian ones might be saved and used for a new space station. Unless you sent a Soyuz M1 every few days, it would take so long to get it to the lunar orbit that by the time the current ISS got to the Moon it would be no longer usable for human habitation.
Probably better to have rockets with somewhat higher lift capacity to build a station in LLO. But the ISS also is huge, and you could have a small station in LLO with current technology.
So not too likely with current technology. But it’s a little hard to look forward to the 2020s - maybe we’ll have the capability to do it more easily then? Perhaps as a “museum exhibit” - if that seemed likely, we could boost its orbit first to a higher orbit, still LEO but high enough to postpone its demise for some decades - and then a few decades later hopefully have developed the capability to move it anywhere we want in the Earth Moon system. So if you are really keen to preserve it, well boosting it by a few hundred kilometers to put off the end - that could be worth doing. But is it worth spending millions of dollars to do that, just for a museum exhibit?
WORKED OUT PLANS TO BUILD A NEW STATION AT L1 (A LITTLE SMALLER THAN THE ISS)
Usually the idea is to build it in the L1 or L2 positions. Because those are very close to the Moon, and are stationary above its surface, and though they are technically unstable positions in the gravitational field of Moon and Earth in practise you can do station keeping there with hardly any fuel because spacecraft placed there don't just drift away from it but instead tend to perturb around it in a kind of a spiral so you would just "orbit" around the L1 or L2 positions with occasional station keeping thrusts. Also interestingly, it is easy to get from L1 to L2 with hardly any fuel so you can go back and forth between near and far side of the Moon pretty easily also if you ever want to or need to.
This is a plan to build a station in the L1 position from 2001, which would be built by assembly at ISS orbit and then boost to LLO, it's a student design project from the University of Maryland
Clarke Station - slides - PClarke station - article
ENAE 791 - Spring 2004 - Course Syllabus
Here is a more recent plan which involves four three person missions every year to build it and keep it operational, a bit like the ISS, three months for each mission
Human operations beyond LEO by the end of the decade: An affordable near-term stepping stone
BEST TO DO SOME MORE RESEARCH IN LEO FIRST, GEMINI STYLE
I think myself that it might be a good idea to work on closed system habitats first, and artificial gravity, which we could do in LEO.
That would be like the Gemini missions that they did before Apollo, testing the technology they need in LEO before sending it to the Moon.
This time the reason would be because there is so much we don't know about how humans can live and be healthy in space.
Rather than just do a copy of the ISS, which we know how to do, in LLO - why not first see if we can get a closed system habitat working in LEO?
See if a Biosphere II style habitat with lots of plants in space work for removing the toxic chemicals like methane, hydrogen sulfide, etc, and for at least some of the CO2 scrubbing, if they could take place of some of the complex machinery in the ISS (with them as backup)?
And more recycling of waste than in the ISS?
Doesn't have to be perfect, just some of that.
ISS hasn't explored that way of doing things at all, just a few plants in experiments, but not at all the idea of plants throughout interior of the station like Biosphere II.
Plus some generating of food from plants, e.g. tomatoes etc. in space - would cut down a fair bit on supply from Earth.
It may seem "way out" to do that in a space station like the ISS.
But Mars One and SpaceX are talking about doing just that on Mars. Obviously far easier to do that in LEO than on Mars (and the Mars soil really has no significant benefits here, plants can grow in hydroponics, or using aeroponics). So if we think it might be possible on Mars, why not try it in LEO?
Or - if that is too big of a leap - or has technical difficulties - at least - try using algae to generate oxygen. The Russians have shown that you can generate all the oxygen from algae from a surprisingly small space - so why not fly that technology and see if it works in space?
And at the same time - work on artificial gravity. If we can use artificial gravity then we can have humans living in space for years on end - and that's a huge saving, if you only need to transport the humans every few years rather than every three months.
And if you don't need to send them fuel or water or oxygen every few months either, it might become almost as easy almost to live in space long term as in Antarctica.
Not need to go all the way, to a totally closed habitat, and perfect health for the astronauts so they can live there for decades on end.
If we can be just a bit better at recycling, and some element of artificial gravity to increase the time that humans can spend there comfortably from a few months to several years - might make a huge difference at distance of the Moon. Can continue with the rest of the research in L1.
There are several simple experiments we could do in LEO that would totally change decisions about best design for a station at L1, so seems to me best to do that first.
Even - just a couple of years of that would be enough to make a big difference.
So - a couple or so "Gemini style" early test missions to test closed system habitats in space and using algae for oxygen, and have a go at a more extensive closed system with large plants and growing food like tomatoes etc. Perhaps send up unmanned, monitor, then send humans up to them afterwards. Or - just build in lots of redundancy, so you have complete ISS type environment control but then try to gradually substitute more and more of it with plants and algae while keeping the ISS type system for backup in case of emergency.
Then, as for artificial gravity, then simply tethering a TMA to its final stage would let you do experiments in artificial gravity that might totally change your ideas about what the best design for the station is, and you could get a mission like that underway within a few months with political will to do it.
But if we wanted to build a more or less copy of the ISS style space station at L1 or in LLO I think we could do that within a decade using a budget probably not that different from the ISS though result a bit smaller.
Just to add an interesting point not many know - the lunar month is so long, and the Moon so close to the Earth compared with the Earth's distance from the sun - that the Moon's orbit is never conc...
(more)Just to add an interesting point not many know - the lunar month is so long, and the Moon so close to the Earth compared with the Earth's distance from the sun - that the Moon's orbit is never concave towards the sun. It's basically doing a somewhat irregular but always convex orbit around the sun that interweaves with the Earth's orbit. It is a kind of rounded 13 gon orbit around the sun, like this:
see: The Orbit of the Moon around the Sun is Convex!
IN DETAIL: the lunar sidereal month is 27.321661 sidereal days - the time it takes for the Moon to return to the same position relative to the fixed stars.
The lunar synodic month, or the time between successive full Moons is 29.530587981 solar days on average - you have to take account of both the Earth's rotation (which cause it to vary between 29.18 and 29.93 days) and the direction of rotation of the Moon around Earth relative to the motion of Earth around the Sun.
So, the easiest way to find the number of sides is to use the sidereal month. So then the sidereal year is 365.25636 sidereal days, so it has 365.25636/27.321661 sides so a little over 13 sides.
But it is so rounded that if you drew it, it would look more like a circle than anything else
Also - at the same time the Earth is orbiting the centre of the galaxy, about 26,000 light years away. Cosmic Distance Scales - The Milky Way
And actually the sun also simultaneously oscillates above and below the galactic disk, as do all the stars, because they are attracted gravitationally by the plane of the galaxy as well as its centre.
It is currently perhaps 100 light years above the galactic plane, and heading towards it (hard to estimate, astronomers writing papers about this come up with many different estimates, e.g.: The Sun's Distance from the Galactic Plane )
And at the same time the galaxy itself is moving within our cluster of galaxies, and that's the fastest motion of all, about 1.3 million miles per hour, as measured using the 3 degree cosmic radiation dipole (asymmetry in the measurements thought to be caused by the Earth's motion relative to the radiation).
Cosmic Distance Scales - The Milky Way
How Fast Are You Moving When You Are Sitting Still?
That compares with Earth's orbital velocity (so also the Moon's approximately) of 67,108 mph
So if you plotted it in absolute coordinates relative to the 3 degree background radiation, it would be more or less a straight line on the timescale of centuries and millennia.
There would be small deviations at an angle of atan(67,108/1,300,000) or about 3 degrees to one side or the other of that line, oscillating back and forth every year.
Then other far more slowly changing deviations in direction due to the motion above and below the galactic plane every 32 million years, and the orbit of the sun around the galaxy every 250 million years.
They eviscerated the book by making it an action movie for young people aged 15 to 25, and it seems that The Hobbit will be the same kind of film.
Tolkien has become a monster, devoured by his own popularity and absorbed into the absurdity of our time. The chasm between the beauty and seriousness of the work, and what it has become, has overwhelmed me. The commercialization has reduced the aesthetic and philosophical impact of the creation to nothing. There is only one solution for me: to turn my head away."
My Father's "Eviscerated" Work - Son Of Hobbit Scribe J.R.R. Tolkien Finally Speaks Out
NASA's Langley Research Center Artist's concept of the Mars Airplane - one of many ideas - this is a tiny plane with five foot wingspan which folds to fit into an aeroshell for entry into the Mars atmosphere.With one of these planes they found a way to put it into a stall at a 70° angle towards the ground, They found that in this configuration, it falls reasonably slowly, rather like a parachute. The plan was to add thrusters for a vertical soft landing on the Martian surface.
Well first, the longest time anyone has spent in space is just over fourteen months. So far, astronauts have recovered surprisingly quickly, even after the longest duration spaceflights.
Within a fe...
(more)Well first, the longest time anyone has spent in space is just over fourteen months. So far, astronauts have recovered surprisingly quickly, even after the longest duration spaceflights.
Within a few weeks they are almost back to normal health. There are some longer term effects, on load bearing bones, which may take a couple of years to clear up, and very rarely, permanent effects on the eyes.
REMARKABLY QUICK RECOVERY CONSIDERING THAT HUMANS DIDN'T EVOLVE IN ZERO G
The astronauts' muscles get weaker and weaker for as long as they are in zero g, and the way their body functions changes in various ways. But you can manage fine in zero g even if your muscles are very weak, so they only notice the effects when they get back to Earth.
Chris Hadfield, when he returned after 5 months in space, was not permitted to drive for 21 days. He also had to wear a G suit to keep blood in his head region (because in zero g, your blood rushes to your head at first, with no gravity to pull it down, and then your body adjusts to produce less blood, about a fifth less than it produces in full g). At first he couldn't stand up in a shower. Things like that.
Chris Hadfield, Canadian astronaut, who talked about his experiences adjusting back to Earth gravity after his mission to the ISS
His return to Earth.
For his experiences on return to Earth see for instance: Astronauts Deal With Some Tough After Effects When Returning to Earth and Back on Earth, Chris Hadfield ‘tottering around like an old man'
But most of these bad effects go away quickly, within a few weeks or months.
It takes some years to recover from the bone loss. So, for a while your bones are a little more likely to break than usual. (You lose 1 or 2% of your bone mass a month, in zero g, from load bearing regions).
Also, many astronauts get eye damage, though usually minor and it clears up when they return to Earth. Occasionally the damage is permanent Spaceflight Bad for Astronauts' Vision, Study Suggests
EVOLUTION NEVER ENCOUNTERED ZERO G CONDITIONS
The human body never evolved to cope with zero g conditions. For the entire history of the Earth all animals, and even all microbes, have been living in full gravity and are adapted to it. Even microbes (surprising everyone) have differences in the ways they behave in zero g Bacteria In Space Grows in Strange Ways
We can only simulate zero gravity on Earth for a few minutes at a time (in Reduced gravity aircraft).
So, before the first human missions to space, in the 1960s, they sent monkeys into space. Before then, for all they knew, it was possible that humans would not survive even an hour in zero g.
When we found that humans had no trouble living in zero g for several days, this was encouraging, and meant a medical "go" for astronauts to visit the Moon.
Then later, when we found that humans can survive for months in zero g, with no major issues, this was even more encouraging.
LONGER DURATION FLIGHTS OF YEARS
However - that doesn't necessarily mean astronauts can spend years on end in space. Some longer duration spaceflights have been promising, others less so.
The longest duration flight of all was also perhaps the most encouraging. That's the flight by Valeri Polyakov who spent just over fourteen months in the earlier Russian space station MIR.
March 22, 1995: Longest Human Space Adventure Ends | WIRED
Valeri Polyakov in MIR at the end of his fourteen month (437 days) mission, the longest single space flight by a human to date.
He is a medical doctor. He was strongly motivated to keep himself healthy in space, as he wanted to prove that humans could survive a zero gravity flight to Mars.
He exercised for two hours every day throughout his flight. He was in fine condition right to the end, and he wanted to spend 24 months in space. And when he returned to Earth he walked a short distance straight away from the capsule to a nearby chair, as he wanted to prove that humans would be healthy enough to walk on the surface of Mars after they got there on a mission.
He did continue to lose bone mass for as long as he was in zero g. But his bone loss was remarkably low compared with other astronauts, only 0.5% a month for a total bone loss of 7%.
That figure is for loss in the most vulnerable area of your skeleton, the load bearing bones (you don't lose any bone at all in non load bearing regions of the skeleton such as the skull). Book Review: 'Leaving Earth'
Typical responses to zero g,. Valeri Polyakov experienced far less bone loss than this, possibly due to his 2 hours a day exercise regime.
Effects of Long-Duration Spaceflight, Microgravity, and Radiation on the Neuromuscular, Sensorimotor, and Skeletal SystemsValeri Polyakov on return to Earth. See 5 Astronauts More Badass Than Any Action Movie Hero
Was Valeri Polyakov someone with a remarkable physique for zero g? Or was his two hours of exercise a day the key? Would anyone find it okay so long as they exercise for that long every day?
It does seem that astronauts and cosmonauts who do most exercise have less issues with bone loss in space than others. Astronauts who spend six months or more in space are required to exercise for at least two hours a day. Exercising in Space
Also does the bone loss just continue, so that the body loses more and more bone indefinitely, or does it stop at some point?
Nobody knows. It might be that the bad effects level off to some extent, but it is also entirely possible that the human body just continues to deteriorate further and further.
If the effects are cumulative, it is possible that a sufficiently long period, of several years in zero g would be enough to kill any human, because of the many changes to our metabolism in space (not just bone loss). We just don't know. As with the early spaceflights that showed we can survive for days, then weeks, then months in zero g, we need to find out if humans can also survive for years in zero g.
We have just started a new experiment, the first long duration spaceflights for some time. NASA astronaut Scott Kelly and Russian Federal Space Agency cosmonaut Mikhail Kornienko, will spend one year in the ISS, returning to Earth in 2016.
Mikhail Kornienko (left) and Scott Kelly (right) who will spend one year in the ISS starting in 2015.
Interestingly, Scott Kelly has a twin, Mark Kelly (a retired astronaut). This will help with the studies - Mark will stay on the Earth and the responses of his body will be compared with Scott.
Mark Kelly is the one with the moustache on the left. On the launch day he pranked the NASA admins by turning up to watch the launch with his moustache shaved off - the only way the admins could tell the two of them apart Astronaut's twin tricked NASA by showing up at space launch
Actually, this was not a planned twin experiment originally. They chose Scott Kelly for other reasons, they needed someone already trained, who had enough radiation exposure left for a one year mission. (Like radiation workers, astronauts are limited in the total amount of cosmic radiation they can be exposed to over a career lifetime). But afterwards, once he was selected, when they talked about genetic information, he came to them and said "what about doing twin experiments". One if by Land, Two if by Space.
It involves making the astronauts' data public, and these are bound by privacy restrictions because of laws such as the genetic non disclosure act, so it never crossed their minds to do a twin experiment. But when he suggested it, and said that they were both happy with sharing genetic data for the experiment - NASA were delighted to go ahead with it. (For more on this background, see fifteen minutes into this talk by Dr. Julie Robinson, ISS Chief Scientist on David Livingston's "The Space Show").
Anyway to summarize what we know so far, exercise in space helps - but you need to do a lot more exercise than you would on the Earth. And that's just in an attempt to maintain roughly the level of fitness you might have if you were a bed bound patient on the Earth.
Of course you don't need to be super fit if you are floating in zero g all the time.
ZERO G BED REST SIMULATIONS
But it's actually worse for health than a normal bed bound Earth patient. Many things go wrong in your body. To try to simulate the effects of zero g, volunteers stay in beds for months on end, tilted with feet raised, and head lowered.
One of the "Pillownauts" exercising with head tilted downwards to simulate some of the effects on the body of zero g. See The 'pillownauts' helping man get to Mars by lying down for nine WEEKS (and they even have their own 'bed spacesuits')
- but even that isn't really quite as bad for you as zero g.
SOME OF THE ZERO G MEDICAL ISSUES
Exercise in zero g just slows down the deterioration, doesn't fix it.
For instance, as well as the bone loss, and muscle loss and peak muscle power loss, which exercise can help with, you still have
Over long periods of time that takes its toll on the human body.
SURGERY IN SPACE
In a long duration flight there is also a chance that one of the members needs surgery. If there is no possibility of an emergency return to Earth, it has to be done on the spot.
It's probably only possible to do minor surgery. Surgery has been carried out successfully in zero g conditions in tests on Earth in zero g aircraft flights, using magnets to keep their instruments in place and operating only during the few seconds of zero g each time.
POTENTIAL HEART CONDITIONS
The numbers of astronauts and cosmonauts are few so far, of course, so it's a small statistical sample. However a fair number of heart beat irregularities have been detected, enough to raise the question whether zero g increase tendencies for heart rhythm irregularities, which could lead to potentially fatal heart conditions. For details, see MEDICAL EMERGENCIES IN SPACE (Mars Society summary) and Cardiac rhythm problems during space flight (wikipedia)
There's also William Rowe's suggestion that Neil Armstrong had a potentially life threatening heart condition towards the end of his space walk - when he had a high heart rate accompanied by shortness of breath (dyspnea). Possible space flight-induced catecholamine cardiomyopathy: Neil Armstrong - and listen to William Rowe talking about this hypothesis on David Livingston's Space Show - he also talks about the steps that should be taken immediately if these symptoms are spotted, for instance during a space walk.
So far no astronaut has had a heart attack in space, but it is something that needs to be researched and monitored carefully.
GRAVITY AS A MEDICINE
The transition from zero g back to full g on the other hand is much easier on the astronaut's body. For the most part, it seems that gravity is more like a medicine than a problem on return to Earth. The body, weakened by the astronaut's time in zero g, immediately starts to recover, at a remarkable rate, over just the first couple of days.
So the main question might be, how long can a human continue in zero g before they have to return to full g in order to stay healthy, or indeed, stay alive?
Indefinitely? Two years? Is even 437 days an endurance test that only some could survive?
We don't know the answer to that yet. But - what if we were to find a way to supply that medicine of gravity in space conditions? Then we might be able to bypass zero g health issues.
GRAVITY AS THE WONDER CURE
From the speed with which astronauts recover from some of the worst effects of zero g when they return, it seems like zero gravity is like a disease for humans with gravity as a "wonder cure".
So, that suggests another approach which might be worth investigating. Rather than extensive exercise, two hours a day, in zero g, just to keep your health at worse than the health levels of a bed bound patient on Earth - what happens if you have just a moderate level of exercise, as you do on Earth - and create gravity in space, artificially?
ARTIFICIAL GRAVITY
The solution to that might well be some form of artificial gravity e.g. two habitats spinning around a tether, or a large doughnut shaped sleeping centrifuge, or perhaps a small personal centrifuge inside of a space station.
The physics of the situation of course is well understood - what spin rates lead to what levels of artificial gravity.
So for instance, to give a few examples, you can get full Earth gravity using 30 rpm with a 1 meter radius, or 1 rpm with a 900 meter radius.
For lunar gravity you can use 12 rpm with a 1 meter radius, or 0.4 rpm with a 900 meter radius.
But the effects of all this on human health have never been studied in space.
It all depends on what gravity prescription you need for health, and also, on what spin rates humans can tolerate in zero g, and whether you need gravity all day 24/7 or just for, say, an hour or less a day.
Experiments using centrifuges on the ground are of somewhat limited value because they need to be backed up with data from space conditions to help calibrate them. Space conditions differ from spins on the ground in many ways. Here are some of the differences:
- Spinning motions for artificial gravity would stimulate the posterior and anterior canals instead of the horizontal canal because the axis of rotation is above your head. The Utricle and Saccule otolithic organs are stimulated differently as well.
However at present there are no plans at all for experiments in artificial gravity in space with humans, nor has anyone ever done these experiments in the past.
Joe Carroll particularly has been trying to get NASA to do some simple tether experiments using the final stage of a crewed rocket launch (which also goes into orbit) as the counterweight. He has been suggesting this ever since the Space Shuttle - but with no success. There just doesn't seem to be any interest in flying these experiments at present.
Joe Carroll's main motivation is to explore effects of low and intermediate levels of gravity on the human body, for instance, lunar or Mars gravity.
This shows the Soyuz TMA together with its final stage at top left - just after separation from final stage (not a photograph, this is a screen shot of a simulation in Orbiter )
The final stage also goes into orbit for several days - eventually returning to Earth.
Joe Carroll's idea is to connect them together with a lightweight but strong tether and start them spinning around the common centre of gravity. At this point the Soyuz TMA is well away from the ISS, in a lower orbit, and there is no chance of collision.
Remarkably, his suggestion uses hardly any fuel. The fuel used to spin them up gets recovered as an extra delta v boost when the tether is cut at the end of the experiment. It adds almost no payload weight either, as the tether is lightweight.
We could do this experiment as a routine part of every crewed mission to the ISS, and get data about the effects of different levels of artificial gravity on the human body in space (e.g. Moon, Mars and Earth levels), as well as learn about human tolerances for the spinning motions of artificial gravity in space conditions.
For details: Crew Tether Spin - With Final Stage - On Routine Mission To ISS - First Human Test Of Artificial Gravity?
This is one of several videos I made with orbiter, to show Joe Carroll's idea. The Soyuz would actually be attached sideways on to the tether, not like this, but for techy reasons this was easier to simulate. The white cube is just a symbol to show the center of gravity, and the tether is shown a bit wider than in real life, to make it easier to see. For more of these videos see: Crew Tether Spin For Artificial Gravity On Way To ISS - Stunning New Videos - Space Show Webinar - Sunday
RUSSIAN EXPERIMENTS WITH RATS
Russia did promising experiments with rats in a centrifuge, which suggested that artificial gravity does help with zero gravity health issues - but have never scaled those experiments up to try them on humans.
Cosmos 936 experiments with rats in a small centrifuge. The results showed that artificial gravity helped combat some of the medical effects of zero g.
NOT DIRECTLY APPLICABLE TO HUMANS
These results are not directly applicable to humans as rats don't experience nausea. They rely instead on a superb sense of taste and learning, so that if they eat bad food they won't eat it again. As a result they can withstand high spin rates with no ill effects. (This is also true of some humans with defective vestibular systems - more on this later)
Human experiments would need to test tolerance of spin rates in space as well as the (expected to be beneficial) health effects of artificial gravity on humans.
CENTRIFUGE ACCOMODATIONS MODULE
This was a module that would be used to study effects of variable levels of artificial gravity on small animals such as rats, and micro-organisms and plants, on the ISS. So basically, it would continue and expand on the early work by the Russians on rats:
Centrifuge Accommodations Module
However it was cancelled in 2004 because of cost overruns and scheduling issues.
SHORT ARM CENTRIFUGE EXPERIMENTS WITH HUMANS
So, as well as the large scale tether spins suggested by Joe Carrol, we could also do human experiments in short arm centrifuges in space. There have been designs for instance for doughnut shaped centrifuge sleeping quarters which could be attached to the ISS or to interplanetary spacecraft.
Nautilus-X - plan for an interplanetary spacecraft with a centrifuge sleeping compartment. A similar idea has also been suggested for a sleeping module for the ISS.
The idea was it would be mainly a sleeping centrifuge, so you get artificial gravity at night. It is just wide enough to fit into it with a spacesuit on - for safety reasons for the early tests of it.
It's inflatable and would fit on an Atlas V or Delta IV rocket. It would have, optionally, a food prep and dining area and a partial g toilet facility. See Nautilus-X--Holderman_1-26-11 and they projected the cost as between 83 and 147 million dollars, and development time, to launch, as three years. So if they had started in 2011 when they did the study, we would have this module in space by now.
I think myself it is far too soon to finalize such a design. Because we know so little about the effects on human health of artificial gravity or what human spin tolerances are. And any design like that requires you to make dozens of very particular engineering decisions based on assumptions about what is good or not for human health.
The physics of how these could work is well understood. But there have been no tests so far to tell us what gravity levels are needed for health, and for how long. Or whether the gravity should be intermittent, and which activities it is most beneficial for, or if it needs to be 24/7.
Nor do we know what spin rates humans can tolerate, in sleep, while exercising, eating, work, or recreation in artificial gravity conditions in zero g, and we can't necessarily apply ground based results directly, as the Skylab litter chair experiments showed.
So it is hard to know at present how effective artificial gravity would be for ameliorating health issues, or how well humans would tolerate them, or the best design for human health (level of artificial gravity, radius, spin rate, how much a day) .
Some researchers in a study at MIT and another study there found that most people can adapt to spin motions as fast as 30 rpm with training over as few as five sessions of an hour each. Which leads to the question, is such adaptation also possible for artificial gravity spins in space?
In their conclusion they say
"If, as has been suggested by previous flight research, microgravity actually provides an even less nauseating environment for centrifugation, then vestibular problems should certainly no longer remain an excuse that stands in the way of flight-testing an SRC [Short Radius Centrifuge] countermeasure. An orbiting test platform would allow not only definitive answers to the integration of otoliths and canals in the process of vestibular adaptation, but would also provide the first solid data beyond bed rest analogues about the efficiency of AG [Artificial Gravity] against musculoskeletal and cardiovascular losses. Furthermore, only in microgravity does the opportunity arise to examine the physiological effects of partial-g load, those between microgravity and Earth-normal 1-g."
"In order to truly address the operational aspects of short-radius AG, a centrifuge must be made available on orbit. It's time to start truly answering the questions of "how long", "how strong", "how often", and "under what limitations" artificial gravity can be provided by a short radius device.
WHAT WE COULD DO RIGHT NOW
We could get the first human artificial gravity experiments in space up and running soon, easily, if there was the political will to do it.
We could do tether system type experiments using Joe Caroll's methods right away, possibly within a year, as space tethers are well understood (he has been responsible for a number of long tethers that have flown in space for other purposes, so has a lot of experience with methods of deploying them and the best materials to use, longevity, and so on).
As for a short arm centrifuge, that's not so easy.
It would have been easy to try them when the ISS was first built. at least temporarily. Especially for instance a very small, two meter diameter centrifuge, which you could test lying down or sitting (like resting in a hammock), which would give you the first ever data points:
Tranquility module when it was first installed, with plenty of space for a very short arm centrifuge inside, at least until it was filled with other equipment
But it is now filled with equipment and lined, and it would be hard to find space to fit in a short arm centrifuge.
Zero gravity exercise machine. This is in the Tranquility module, and there would be enough space here for a 2 meter diameter centrifuge but of course the space is already in use.
Then there's also the issue that vibrations from the centrifuge could be transferred to the rest of the ISS - but - that was an issue with the exercise machine also, and it doesn't seem insurmountable, for instance for a cycle powered centrifuge.
If the will was there, I wonder if it could perhaps be flown, for instance, in the Bigelow inflatable habitat experiment (that's my own suggestion).
Could this be fitted with a short arm centrifuge, with the human volunteer reclining parallel to the rotation axis? It's going to be more or less empty inside apart from some monitoring equipment. And the astronauts will enter it from time to time to check the instruments. What about doing a very short arm centrifuge test at the same time, just a suggestion?
With very short arm centrifuges, astronauts travel at slow relative velocities. E.g. with a 1 meter radius centrifuge (astronaut reclining, hammock style, parallel or perpendicular to the spin axis), the fastest spin rate for full gravity is 30 rpm, or two seconds per turn. That makes their relative velocity PI meters per second, or a bit over three meters per second, or a brisk walking speed. That's similar to the speeds at which astronauts move around inside the ISS. So there are no significant safety issues there.
This is not particularly with the idea that it would solve all your problems. The am is just to get at least a few data points, the first ever, at minimal cost.
If not with this one, maybe for future larger inflatable habitats.
Bigelow BA 330. at 6 meters diameter as planned, would have plenty of space for even large centrifuges. It's large enough even to fit in a jogging track as for Skylab.
NASA has actually patented a human powered centrifuge, where the astronauts cycle and in the process set the centrifuge rotating for artificial gravity, at the same time that they do their workout. Human Powered Centrifuge - NASA patent, 1997
In this 1997 NASA patent, the invention can be powered in two ways, either by a stationary astronaut pedalling the bicycle next to the centrifuge, or by one or two astronauts cycling as they spin in the centrifuge. This gives the astronauts an aerobic workout, with or without artificial gravity. The spin rate, and so the amount of artificial gravity can also be varied for the same amount of effort cycling. It also generates electricity as a byproduct, which can be stored in batteries and used for the spacecraft.
And work is continuing on this, here are a couple of pictures of a human powered centrifuge in testing, two people use it and one of them pedals while the other does exercises - in this case squats:
Space Cycle tests artificial gravity as solution to muscle loss, see also Working out in artificial gravity
Also medical tests have been done with humans in bed rest experiments on a short arm centrifuge:
The results were encouraging Human Centrifuge Preserves Muscle at Zero-G
For some reason, despite many suggestions to fly such experiments, none of the countries with manned spaceflight programs have ever done any experiments at all of this nature in space conditions.
As we start to think in terms of longer term missions in the Earth Moon system, and interplanetary missions for humans, maybe there's a chance of stimulating interest in these ideas again? And get at least a few data points from space to complement the many ground based experiments.
And then, the various discussions and mission planning involving whether or not to use artificial gravity could be based on some data from space, and not just ground based data with centrifuges in hyper g, and bed patients in reclined with head downwards.
QUESTIONS WE DON'T KNOW THE ANSWERS TO
Surely when we get tourist habitats in space (such as the proposed Bigelow inflatable habitats) they will at least have AG for the toilets and probably also at meal times and maybe for recreational low g and jogging tracks. So, if we don't find out before them, maybe that may give us a few answers or at least some data points to reason on a firmer basis.
Or, maybe some of the newer space capable countries, once they have their own astronauts in orbit, might explore this.
I don't think it necessarily follows that just because we evolved in full g 24/7 that this is either needed for human health, or even, optimal for human health.
As it is now, you can hypothesize almost anything and nobody can say you are wrong. E.g.:
If one person says:
"We have evolved under full g, so full g is absolutely essential 24/7 and most humans can only tolerate small spin rates of a fraction of an rpm for long term stays in space. So we have to build tether systems with multiple kilometer long tethers between the habitat and a counterweight (e.g. use a discarded third stage) - this is the only way we'll ever do long duration spaceflight"
And someone else says:
"Optimal health is for lunar gravity, for one hour a day, with the rest of the time at zero g. Alternating between the two regimes benefits health, and with a bit of training, most humans can tolerate high spin rates. So you just need a two meter diameter individual centrifuge, which you use in a reclining position, and do a little light exercise in it every day to remain healthy, even healthier than in full g 24/7."
And someone else says
"Artificial gravity is totally impractical at present. We need to keep astronauts in zero g and use medicines and several hours of exercise a day to keep them healthy, and develop ways to live in zero g for longer and longer periods of time."
If you are writing a science fiction story, or a movie script you can go with any of those, take it as the "future history" and run with it.
But in real life, how can we know who is right there? Maybe all are wrong? The only way to know for sure is to do some experiments in artificial gravity (as well as continuing zero g experiments) to test these hypotheses and others.
USING MEDICINES TO STAY HEALTHY IN SPACE
We might also be able to stay healthy indefinitely in space using drugs to treat the various things that go wrong with the human body, combined with several hours of exercise a day. This approach is what the main space agencies favour. Preventing Bone Loss in Space Flight.
They say that solving zero g health problems with artificial gravity is impractical with present day technology. They give what seem cogent reasons for this view. Listen for instance to what Dr. Julie Robinson, ISS Chief Scientist says as guest on the Space Show.
Maybe they are right, but as we saw with the MIT quote (Page 155), some of the researchers who research into artificial gravity effects on humans are of the opinion that it is high time that we had data from centrifuge experiments in space conditions in order to have definitive answers to these questions.
HUMANS WITH DEFECTIVE VESTIBULAR SYSTEMS
On page 95 of Packing for Mars, by Mary Roach she mentions that NASA Ames researcher Bill Toscano has a defective vestibular system. He only realised this when they put him on the spinning chair and he experienced no nauseous effects at all from the spinning. So, he at least, could spend 24/7 in a short arm centrifuge type one meter radius spinning hammock at 30 rpm for full gravity with no ill effects. The same is also true for some deaf people.
Bill Toscano from NASA Ames doesn't get dizzy or nauseous when he spins because of a defective vestibular system. He only realized this when he tried out a spinning chair and had no nauseous effects at all from the spinning.
That leads to another thought. Depending on the results of experiments on short arm centrifuges in space - should we use people with defective vestibular systems for long duration spaceflights? Whatever the results for everyone else, they at least could easily tolerate full gravity 24/7 in a small spinning habitat or in a small two meter diameter centrifuge, or whatever is needed.
That could be a huge reduction in cost of the mission, and the mass of the spacecraft, with improvements in the performance of the astronauts, especially for multi year and even decades long missions. Perhaps in the future it might be a major factor for choosing astronauts for the very longest duration spaceflights.
MIGHT SOME ASTRONAUTS TOLERATE HIGH SPIN RATES FOR ARTIFICIAL GRAVITY?
We might also choose astronauts who happen to tolerate very fast spin rates even with normal vestibular systems. For instance ice skaters can tolerate rapid spins that make everyone else nauseous quickly.
Ice skaters don't feel nauseous or dizzy at all during these rapid spins, due to their many years of training. They may feel dizzy momentarily as they come out of the spin.
That doesn't necessarily mean they can tolerate the tumbling type motions of artificial gravity, because that's in a different direction.
However, because of the out of control Gemini 8 spin, astronauts are put through 3 axis spin training during astronaut training. That's just in case they get into a situation like that where a rocket motor gets stuck or misfires and they find their spacecraft rapidly spinning and tumbling out of control. So they are likely to have more tolerance for tumbles and spins than most, just because they train to be able to tolerate it.
The experiences of the Skylab astronauts also suggest astronauts can tolerate very rapid ice skater type spins in zero g for at least a while. If only they had tested the medical effects of these motions, and also done tests to see how long they can keep up these spins and tumbles and jogging around the track?
Skylab - 1970s US space station that was wide enough in diameter to have a jogging track around the interior. It was based on a modified final stage of a Saturn V launcher. It flew from 1973 to 1979.
Jogging starts at 3.30 and they jog at around 10 rpm, so probably experienced around 1/3 g, taking the radius as 3 meters. The longest jog is for one minute 50 seconds (including various gymnastic tumbles in the middle). So though that is not a medical experiment, it does show that humans can tolerate at least 1/3 g, and 10 rpm for just short of two minutes with no signs at all of discomfort.
Various spins and turns in zero g, demonstrated by astronauts on Skylab.
Perhaps there will be astronauts who, like the ice skaters for spins on Earth, can tolerate far faster spins (in the tumbling direction) in short arm centrifuges. If so, again they'd be obvious choices for long duration interplanetary missions if artificial gravity is beneficial for health - as seems likely.
It's also worth noting, that if temporary artificial gravity spins are sufficient for health, for instance if it is enough to have gravity only for exercise, going to the toilet, eating and digesting your food, resting, and maybe for sleep - these are all activities where you don't need to do frequent turns of your head.
You may be able to keep your head more or less still relative to the spin, which can greatly reduce tendencies for nausea and giddiness. Also, they are all activities that don't need fine hand / eye co-ordination - so Coriolis effects might not matter either, again potentially permitting fast spin rates during these activities.
MAIN PROBLEM, ON EVIDENCE SO FAR IS KEEPING HEALTHY IN SPACE
Anyway whatever approach is used, whether it is artificial gravity, or zero g with medicines and lots of exercise, the evidence so far seems to suggest that the main problem is keeping healthy in space. If we can keep our astronauts healthy, they can probably spend many years, even decades in space and recover quickly on return to Earth.
But until we find a way to make sure they stay healthy in space, we can't be sure that they can survive long multi-year missions in space. NASA's current policy is to explore ways to keep humans healthy in zero gravity for as long as possible.
Though that's obviously of interest and nobody is saying that we should stop that research, some experimenters think that we should also have a more active program to research into the possibilities of keeping healthy through use of artificial gravity as well.
With artificial gravity, we've reached the point where we need experiments in orbit to validate ground experiments. Animal models are of limited value since they respond differently to artificial gravity spins.
There are two main directions we can explore here. First is the use of a tether spin - which with Joe Carroll's proposal could be investigated in the near future during a routine crew mission to the ISS. Then for the short term temporary gravity tests we need a centrifuge within the ISS, or an extra module with a centrifuge on board.
Either of these could give us our very first data points on the effects of different levels of artificial gravity on human health in orbital conditions, and on human tolerances of spin rates for artificial gravity. The tether spin experiments could also give us first data on effects of gravity 24/7, at least for a few days, and the centrifuge experiments could help us understand effects of temporary gravity for a few minutes, or hours a day.
FIND OUT MORE
For more details of Joe Carroll's experiment, and more about the separate idea of experiments using a short arm centrifuge in space, see also my answer to this quora question: Robert Walker's answer to Can we create a spaceship with centrifugal artificial gravity with today's technology?
And for details of the medical effects of zero g, there are answers by several Quora contributors here, including myself: How long can humans live in space and what is the worst case scenario for someone who lives too long in space?
See also The Most Unusual Laboratory (Not) on Earth for a podcast which discusses some of the latest results from the ISS and the new Kelly twins experiment.
You might also be interested in my guest appearance on David Livingston's Space Show on these topics: Robert Walker, Friday, 3-14-14
And my Science20 articles on these topics:
UPDATE
I’ve written this answer up on my science20 blog as Can Astronauts Spend Years In Space - And How Quickly Can They Recover On Return To Earth?
You don't have to think you are smarter than him to criticize his ideas or suggest that he hasn't worked through everything. Because clever people are not immune from mistakes.
Clever people make m...
(more)You don't have to think you are smarter than him to criticize his ideas or suggest that he hasn't worked through everything. Because clever people are not immune from mistakes.
Clever people make mistakes as easily as anyone else. History also shows that a team of good advisers doesn't make you immune from mistakes either. And I hope never to see a world where people are afraid of asking challenging questions of someone else because they feel they are not as clever themselves.
SPACE INDUSTRY FAILURES IN PROGRAMS WITH MANY CLEVER PEOPLE ON BOARD
After all, even in the space program, then many very clever people designed and built and serviced the space shuttle, but somehow, between them all, were not able to spot some serious errors that lead to two shuttles crashing.
Russia sent many landers to Mars, in the 60s and 70s and again one more in 1996, + their phobos lander - surely must have used the best and most brilliant minds they had available in Russian space industry - and they all crashed or failed to get there.
The US seems to have been remarkably successful with their landers program, only 1 failure out of 8 missions. But - none of them were guaranteed successes. For instance, look at the last 4 missions by the US, all successes. Suppose it really was a 50 / 50 chance of success each time for those missions. Then chance of getting 4 successes in a row is 6.25% or 1/16. Such odds do happen, not too extraordinary. I think is too soon really to be sure that the US has achieved better than 50/50 reliability for its landers, though most likely it has (especially since with each mission they learn more through telemetry etc).
It is just a tricky business, sending spacecraft into space, so far anyway, and we don't have the numbers of flights and the history to achieve the same reliability we have for cars or for aircraft.
Will SpaceX somehow change all this? I think just too soon to say.
IQ
I don't think myself that cleverness is something you can put on a scale as in "what is my IQ" - mine is more than yours or yours is more than mine so one or other of us is "more clever".
E.g. I'm great at maths and programming, but less than average at arithmetic and poor at human languages, other than English my native language where I'm reasonably good (but not so good at spelling and typos, have to keep checking my writing for both).
What does that say about my IQ? Almost nothing. What does my IQ (and I don't know what it is, never been tested and don't want to be) say about my ability at maths and programming, or at writing easy to read and clear English prose? Almost nothing.
What do any of those say about my likely abilities as a chef, or a sky diver, or a gymnast, or ice skater, or gardener. Again nothing chances are.
If there is any correlation at all between any of those, probably at most a slight variation away from chance.
ELON MUSK AND SPACEX
With Elon Musk, then I don't know about his technology, whether he can achieve it or not, that is his speciality. But he has had failures and explosions of his spacecraft, as have almost all spacecraft developers at some point or other. It certainly looks promising for unmanned cargo transport for the ISS already used for that. Whether he can achieve the reliability needed for human transport - perhaps - but I wait to see there. Is hard to beat the Soyuz system with its multiple fail-safes proven over many more flights than any other system.
But whether or not he achieves the reliability needed for human spaceflight - he doesn't seem to have investigating human factors as a priority for interplanetary missions - and he hasn't said anything about his plans for preventing forward contamination of Mars or how to fit in with Planetary protection.
So - until he says something about those things - this is not saying that I'm more clever than him. Who cares either way about that?
But - what are his plans? They need to be scrutinized by others, especially planetary protection, in case there are flaws in them. The more eyes the better.
PLANETARY PROTECTION
Personally I just don't see how you can land humans on Mars without a risk of a crash landing, and if you crash land, how can you avoid contaminating the planet?
It's no good just saying "Elon Musk is clever so no point in asking that question". I hope we never get to the state where people are afraid of asking someone else challenging questions because they think they are not as clever as them.
That question needs to be answered, if you are serious about landing on Mars. And until someone does answer it, and they do that in a way that is generally agreed to be a solution, then there is a big ? over the whole thing, for anyone who cares about planetary protection (as many do at least).
I watched the recent NASA Humans2Mars - and the speakers there seemed optimistic about finding a solution that permits both human exploration and planetary protection on the surface.
Humans2Mars by National Institute of Aerospace
But how that can work I just can't imagine myself, will believe it when they produce it. They gave no details, in the talk, just say that they are planning a new study.
Of course it is great that they do plan to keep this as high priority. And everyone is agreed, it seems, on the need for planetary protection for human missions to Mars surface. The question just is, can it be done?
There have been many workshops on this, they have all ended with "needs more research" as the main final message. I expect this one to be similar myself.
After all, how do they protect against a hard landing? What is their target probability of contaminating Mars in event of a human crash landing? Or overall? Presumably higher than the 0.01% target probability for a robot. How high is acceptable for humans?
E.g. just for example, suppose they calculated it as 1% of contaminating Mars per human mission, and say 10% over all during exploration phase - is that acceptable to other parties to the OST such as ESA, China, Russia, etc.
Will the workshop find that a human base can be reversible - that somehow you can tidy up and remove all the contamination after they leave? Or does it not matter, if not why not?
These, and many other questions need to be answered. And basically, we don't know enough to answer such questions yet, plus is mixed in with other questions that need to be scrutinized on the international level about what are acceptable probabilities of contaminating Mars, would be discussed by COSPAR, not NASA.
I don't see how the process can end any differently from the earlier ones, myself, as we haven't got that much more information to go on. What info we do have since the earlier studies points towards it being harder to do planetary protection rather than easier, if anything. Best it can do is to outline the areas where more research is needed in some more detail perhaps, is my forecast for what they will do, for what it is worth :).
At any rate, whatever you think about this, it is out of Elon Musk's hands, he can't influence the outcome of those decisions and being clever is no help there.
HUMAN FACTORS
And as for human factors, then - nobody has yet demonstrated long term closed systems in space - and nobody knows what gravity prescription is needed for human health. So again cleverness just doesn't enter into that. Some things you can only find out by experiment, especially things to do with ecosystems and human body. Plants, and humans are far too complex to model on a computer.
The possible payload of science instruments under consideration includes radar to penetrate the frozen crust and determine the thickness of the ice shell, an infrared spectrometer to investigate the composition of Europa's surface materials, a topographic camera for high-resolution imaging of surface features, and an ion and neutral mass spectrometer to analyze the moon's trace atmosphere during flybys.
The nominal Europa Clipper mission would perform 45 flybys of Europa at altitudes varying from 2700 km to 25 km.
Europa Clipper - NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
5. States Parties to this Agreement hereby undertake to establish an international regime, including appropriate procedures, to govern the exploitation of the natural resources of the Moon as such exploitation is about to become feasible. This provision shall be implemented in accordance with article 18 of this Agreement.
The main purposes of the international regime to be established shall include:
(a) The orderly and safe development of the natural resources of the Moon;
(b) The rational management of those resources;
(c) The expansion of opportunities in the use of those resources;
(d) An equitable sharing by all States Parties in the benefits derived from those resources, whereby the interests and needs of the developing countries, as well as the efforts of those countries which have contributed either directly or indirectly to the exploration of the Moon, shall be given special consideration.
Page on unvienna.org
Yes from the scientific point of view, makes no sense to doubt it. Many papers and new scientific discoveries about the Moon, directly following from the expeditions they did there. They brought ba...
(more)Yes from the scientific point of view, makes no sense to doubt it. Many papers and new scientific discoveries about the Moon, directly following from the expeditions they did there. They brought back rocks from the Moon - and each rock was labelled so you can tell where it was picked up and when. And they lead to new and surprising discoveries about the Moon. And these rocks are used to this day, re-examined to test theories and ideas.
So, is not only harder to fake than to do in reality, is impossible. We couldn't fake it today, never mind with 1960s technology.
I'm talking mainly about Apollo 17 here as the one with the most interesting rocks returned, because returned by a geologist. But if you are doubtful about Apollo 11 you will surely be even more skeptical about Apollo 17.
You can watch the video of his expedition and share his excitement as a geologist as he made new discoveries on the Moon every hour.
Remember - every time he picks up a rock sample there - as a researcher you can go and ask to see that very sample and analyse it and test it to check or confirm theories about the lunar surface.
The rocks you can go and see - they look exactly as expected from the videos -same shape, same composition, if they pick up orange soil, they return orange soil, if they pick up a strangely shaped rock, they return a rock of exactly that shape...
Have a read about Harrison Schmidt's field trip, here A Field Trip to the Moon - and more detailed accounts elsewhere, the discoveries they made.
For instance this one
And, just for an example, this 2009 paper examining isotope ratios in this rock, and giving new results about the moon Early Lunar Magnetism
Could you imagine that back in 1969 some scientist involved in the fake anticipated that some time in 2009 someone would examine this rock and want to find out the isotope ratios of Argon and manipulated them to make them appropriate for a an instrument not yet invented to answer a question not yet asked?
MICROMETEORITE DAMAGE
The rocks are similar to Earth rocks, true - that was a surprise, how similar they are, and lead to the theory that the Moon was formed by an impact with the Earth.
But not identical. One obvious difference is that they all had micro-meteorite impacts which Earth rocks don't have. At a level you can explore with the electron microscope - no way that could be simulated in 1960s.
I don't think we could do it convincingly today - if we spent a million dollars trying to simulate a gram of lunar rock so that a randomly selected sample would look right in an electron microscope, surely we'd fail.
Micrometeorite damage in a spherule in the lunar rocks. A glass spherule (about 0.6 mm in diameter) produced by a meteorite impact into lunar soil. Features on the surface are glass splashes, welded mineral fragments, and microcraters produced by space weathering processes at the surface of the moon. SEM image by D. S. McKay
Also they were very very dry, lacking in volatiles and not hydrated like their Earth counterparts. And many are as old as 4.5 billion years old, older than any Earth rocks. See Moon rock
Some of the conspiracy theorists say that they are lunar meteorites - but the lunar meteorites are rare, and not known at the time. The first lunar meteorite was discovered in the 1980s. Lunar meteorite.
Others think unmanned rovers on the Moon brought the rocks back - but if so, how do they exactly match the rocks the astronauts pick up in the videos? Also, the Russian Luna program returned a total of 0.326 kg of samples in three missions. Luna programme
And do you think they managed to simulate Apollo astronauts walking on the Moon to look real, to this day?
It's easier to think so in hindsight with movies such as Gravity - but even these have flaws that the experts notice.
But back then, the most sophisticated movie about the Moon done before the landing was 2001, the year before - where this is their best footage they managed, after five years of work on the film, for the lunar sequence:
I can tell you the film was pretty amazing to watch at the time. We didn't know any better. It came out in 1968, the year before Apollo 11 landed on the Moon.
But look at it today - and is obvious those astronauts are just walking slowly, doesn't even resemble the lunar walking on the Moon.
Some conspiracy theorists think Apollo used rejected footage from 2001.
Even today, our movies of astronauts on the Moon surface are not convincing for those who watched the Apollo landings. For instance on the "Apollo 18" movie - looks nothing like the real thing, just walking slowly basically.
I think myself, the only way to do it reasonably convincingly, even today - apart from microgravity flights and film everything in planes 20 seconds at a time - is something like this
From the NASA Archive: The Lunar Walking Problem | Science | WIRED
Which NASA did have in the 1960s - but - I've never seen anyone suggest they used this - and - how could you anyway - attach wires to absolutely everything that moves (including flag etc) to counteract sideways effect of Earth gravity.
In a Mythbusters episode they looked at the idea that the moon walking could be done by slow motion video, and showed that it didn't look exactly like the lunar footage + other tests of moon conspiracy ideas. Episode 104: NASA Moon Landing
PHOTOGRAPHS TAKEN FROM ORBIT AROUND THE MOON
And you can now see photographs of the tracks they made on the Moon, taken from orbit.
See also The Great Moon Hoax
HYPOTHESIS - MAYBE PART OF THE REASON FOR THIS SKEPTICISM IS BECAUSE THE ASTRONAUTS ARE SO CALM AND UNEXCITED
Actually I wonder if part of it was because most of the astronauts were so professional about it and calm. They don't really seem like people doing things for the first time ever. not like most of us in such a situation.
Maybe it looks as if they can't be in any danger because they are so very calm? Maybe that's where some get the idea perhaps it is all a film set and they were never in any danger?
But remember these are people who are professionally trained to be calm in the middle of a crisis in a jet fighter which is about to crash. It takes years of training to be as steady and calm as that - you and I could never do it without that training (unless you are in a similar profession).
Same is true today, here is the account of the astronaut who nearly drowned in his spacesuit recently.
EVA 23: exploring the frontier
And Chris Hadfield talking about his experience of going blind in his spacesuit during a spacewalk, and why he didn't panic
What I learned from going blind in space
You or I, unless trained to the same levels would be panicking for sure, and probably would have died.
On that first landing on the Moon especially - though they had done everything they could to make it safe - there was certainly a real risk that they would crash (even through momentary pilot error) and a significant risk that once landed, they would not be able to leave the Moon again but would die there or crash on take off. And they all knew that.
The US had prepared a speech for the president to say in the event that the Apollo 11 astronauts landed, and could not take off from the Moon again.
Here it is
But you'd never guess that they knew that from the way they talked.
More answers here, it's essentially the same question: Did Neil Armstrong really land on the moon?
This picture shows ice melt in Antarctica by solid state greenhouse effect - the surface stays frozen, and deeper down, it melts, in a layer about 0.5 m deep - because the translucent ice above it acts as a greenhouse. Taken from: Melting, runoff and the formation of frozen lakes in a mixed snow and blue-ice field in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica
States Parties to the Treaty shall bear international responsibility for national activities in outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, whether such activities are carried on by governmental agencies or by non-governmental entities, and for assuring that national activities are carried out in conformity with the provisions set forth in the present Treaty. The activities of non-governmental entities in outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, shall require authorization and continuing supervision by the appropriate State Party to the Treaty. When activities are carried on in outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, by an international organization, responsibility for compliance with this Treaty shall be borne both by the international organization and by the States Parties to the Treaty participating in such organization.
(emphasis as copied from this : You can't own the Sun. No. Not yours.)
"The exploration and use of outer space, including the moon and other celestial bodies, shall be carried out for the benefit and in the interests of all countries, irrespective of their degree of economic or scientific development, and shall be the province of all mankind."
" for the benefit and in the interests of all countries, irrespective of their degree of economic or scientific development"
"Michael Listner, founder and principal at Space Law and Policy Solutions in New Hampshire, says that the bill is "crafted with international law in mind," but the underlying caveat that property rights will be granted in accordance with international obligations could be a "showstopper." He also points out that the European Space Agency (ESA) is "planning on granting resource rights as well" and asks how claims under this legislation would be reconciled with competing foreign claims."
Posey, Kilmer Introduce ASTEROIDS Act To Grant Property Rights to Asteroid Resources - UPDATE
"Any resources obtained in outer space from an asteroid are the property of the entity that obtained such resources, which shall be entitled to all property rights thereto, consistent with applicable provisions of Federal law."consistent with
" for the benefit and in the interests of all countries, irrespective of their degree of economic or scientific development"The proposed law says
" develop the frameworks necessary to meet the international obligations of the United States."
The term "use" is vague and is not defined by the Outer Space Treaty. Therefore, it is open to many interpretations based on your point of view. When a treaty is interpreted it is done so by the standards set forth in the Vienna Convention and whether the term "use" could apply to mining and property rights would have to be evaluated using those standards. It is important to note that there is no specific prohibition to granting mining rights but neither is there anything specifically allowing it either.
Furthermore, when you look at a treaty you can't just pick and choose how you define a specific term without considering the intent of the treaty [as a] whole. That means while "use" could possibly be interpreted to allow for mining rights it would have to be evaluated in the context of the Outer Space Treaty in general and not just by cherry-picking Article I.
Can Congress Grant Private Companies The Right To Mine Asteroids?
Generate the even numbers
2, 4, 6, 8, ...
For each number, see if it is a sum of two primes. If it is, print out a "1". If it isn't, stop.
You have fifteen seconds. Using standard math notation, English words, or both, name a single whole number—not an infinity—on a blank index card. Be precise enough for any reasonable modern mathematician to determine exactly what number you’ve named, by consulting only your card and, if necessary, the published literature.
It's curious isn't it, no Russian probes yet, even to Jupiter or Mercury. I wonder why? Russia did have this 2013 plan to land a probe on Europa, not sure what its current status is.
(more)It's curious isn't it, no Russian probes yet, even to Jupiter or Mercury. I wonder why? Russia did have this 2013 plan to land a probe on Europa, not sure what its current status is.
Russia May Land Probe on Jupiter's Moon Ganymede with Europe's Help
Nobody else either. NASA mainly with some participation from ESA with the Ulysses (spacecraft) which had the sun as its main target
ESA plan a mission to Jupiter to launch in 2022 and arrive there in 2030 - latest news: ESA chooses instruments for its Jupiter icy moons explorer
And - may do it as a joint mission with Russia.
UPDATE
Juice is continuing on timetable so far. Probably will +6+6launch in 2022 if it goes according to timetable.
ESA's Jupiter mission moves off the drawing board
Mysteries of #Gravity: Nearly all satellites orbit Earth west to east yet all satellite debris portrayed orbited east to west
(Neil deGrasse Tyson Tweet)
More of his tweets about the film here: Neil deGrasse Tyson Trolled "Gravity" On Twitter, And It's Pretty Hilarious
Flights from Tokyo to Los Angeles use the jet stream east bound, and great circle route west bound.
First used in 1952, flight by a Pan Am jet from Tokyo to Honolulu cut the flight time from 18 hours to 11.5 hours by about a third. Popular Mechanics
"Nothing is more easy than to reduce this mass to one quarter of its bulk. You know that curious cellular matter which constitutes the elementary tissues of vegetable? This substance is found quite pure in many bodies, especially in cotton, which is nothing more than the down of the seeds of the cotton plant. Now cotton, combined with cold nitric acid, become transformed into a substance eminently insoluble, combustible, and explosive. It was first discovered in 1832, by Braconnot, a French chemist, who called it xyloidine. In 1838 another Frenchman, Pelouze, investigated its different properties, and finally, in 1846, Schonbein, professor of chemistry at Bale, proposed its employment for purposes of war. This powder, now called pyroxyle, or fulminating cotton, is prepared with great facility by simply plunging cotton for fifteen minutes in nitric acid, then washing it in water, then drying it, and it is ready for use.""
THE QUESTION OF THE POWDERS
"This early illustration shows a concept for Apollo which would have employed either the direct ascent or Earth orbital rendezvous mode of operation. Shown here is the all-up configuration which allowed three astronauts to travel to the surface of the Moon for up to a week's stay and return using a single spacecraft. Note the towering height of the vehicle, its return upper stage and the now familiar command module which the crew would have used for their return to Earth once the upper return stage vehicle blasted off from the lunar surface. (Photo courtesy NASA.)" chapter 14 of "Before this decade is out" online book.
Skylon, a jet that can fly directly to orbit. It is air breathing in the atmosphere and only switches to rocket propulsion once out of the atmosphere - remember with Apollo 11 just about all the fuel is gone by then - so this is a huge saving. It would launch from an ordinary runway - like an airplane - the runway needs to be strengthened but is otherwise normal. And it doesn't need booster rockets at all, it carries all its fuel on board.
Mysteries of #Gravity: Nearly all satellites orbit Earth west to east yet all satellite debris portrayed orbited east to westRussia launches from much further north than US so has a slight disadvantage there.
Neil deGrasse Tyson Trolled "Gravity" On Twitter, And It's Pretty Hilarious
". discovered two lesser stars, or satellites, which revolve around Mars, whereof the innermost is distant from the center of the primary exactly three of his diameters, and the outermost five: the former revolves in the space of ten hours, and the latter in twenty-one and a half."He also got quite close to the actual values - well - within a factor of two ros - not that close, but close enough to be a fun coincidence.
“Occasionally, I get a letter from someone who is in “contact” with extraterrestrials. I am invited to “ask them anything.” And so over the years I’ve prepared a little list of questions.
The extraterrestrials are very advanced, remember. So I ask things like, “Please provide a short proof of Fermat’s Last Theorem.” Or the Goldbach Conjecture. And then I have to explain what these are, because extraterrestrials will not call it Fermat’s Last Theorem. So I write out the simple equation with the exponents.
I never get an answer. On the other hand, if I ask something like “Should we be good?” I almost always get an answer.”
Quotes About Goldbach Conjecture
Greek mathematician Euclid (flourished c. 300 bce) gave the oldest known proof that there exist an infinite number of primes, and he conjectured that there are an infinite number of twin primes.Britannica doesn't include citations however to follow up to confirm this.
twin prime conjecture (number theory)
Carl Sagan, pioneer ...(more)
Carl Sagan, pioneer and hero of planetary protection standing next to model of Viking - still regarded as the gold standard for planetary protection.
When the entire biosphere hangs in the balance, it is adventuristic to the extreme to bring Martian life here. Sure, there is a chance it would do no harm; but that is not the point. Unless you can rule out the chance that it might do harm, you should not embark on such a course.Carl Sagan wrote in his book Cosmic Connection:
…Precisely because Mars is an environment of great potential biological interest, it is possible that on Mars there are pathogens, organisms which, if transported to the terrestrial environment, might do enormous biological damage - a Martian plague, the twist in the plot of H. G. Wells' War of the Worlds, but in reverse. This is an extremely grave point. On the one hand, we can argue that Martian organisms cannot cause any serious problems to terrestrial organisms, because there has been no biological contact for 4.5 billion years between Martian and terrestrial organisms. On the other hand, we can argue equally well that terrestrial organisms have evolved no defenses against potential Martian pathogens, precisely because there has been no such contact for 4.5 billion years. The chance of such an infection may be very small, but the hazards, if it occurs, are certainly very high.
…The likelihood that such pathogens exist is probably small, but we cannot take even a small risk with a billion lives.
…The likelihood that such pathogens exist is probably small, but we cannot take even a small risk with a billion lives.
RECOMMENDATION 10: Considering the global nature of the issue, consequences resulting from an unintended release could be borne by a larger set of countries than those involved in the programme.
It is recommended that mechanisms dedicated to ethical and social issues of the risks and benefits raised by an MSR are set up at the international level and are open to representatives of all countries.
from: Mars Sample Return backward contamination – Strategic advice and requirements
"the problem of risk - even extremely low risk - is exacerbated because the consequences of back contamination could be quite severe Without being overly dramatic, the consequences might well include the extinction of species and the destruction of whole ecosystems. Humans could also be threatened with death or a significant decrease in life prospects
In this situation, what is an ethically acceptable level of risk, even if it is quite low? This is not a technical question for scientists and engineers. Rather, it is a moral question concerning risk. Currently, the vast majority of the people exposed to this risk do not have a voice or a vote in the decision to accept it. Most of the literature, on back contamination is framed as a discourse among experts in planetary protection. Yet, as I've already argued, space exploration is inescapably a social endeavor done on behalf of the human race. Astronauts and all the supporting engineers and scientists work as representatives of the human race...
..In this situation, to treat persons with dignity and justice means that everyone must have an opportunity to voice their opinion concerning whether humans should accept the risk..."
from: God's preferential option for life: a Christian perspective on astrobiology
Yes, to add to the other points - they brought back rocks from the Moon - and each rock was labelled so you can tell where it was picked up and when. And they lead to new and surprising discoveries...
(more)Yes, to add to the other points - they brought back rocks from the Moon - and each rock was labelled so you can tell where it was picked up and when. And they lead to new and surprising discoveries about the Moon. And these rocks are used to this day, re-examined to test theories and ideas.
GEOLOGIST'S FIELD TRIP ON THE MOON
I'm talking mainly about Apollo 17 here as the one with the most interesting rocks returned, because returned by a geologist. But if you are doubtful about Apollo 11 you will surely be even more skeptical about Apollo 17.
You can watch the video of his expedition and share his excitement as a geologist as he made new discoveries on the Moon every hour.
Remember - every time he picks up a rock sample there - as a researcher you can go and ask to see that very sample and analyse it and test it to check or confirm theories about the lunar surface.
And that the rocks you can go and see - they look exactly as expected from the videos -same shape, same composition, if they pick up orange soil, they return orange soil, if they pick up a strangely shaped rock, they return a rock of exactly that shape...
Especially when you also read about Harrison Schmidt's field trip, here A Field Trip to the Moon - and more detailed accounts elsewhere, the discoveries they made.
How could they fake rocks to give the right results in experiments that would be done decades later using instruments not yet invented at the time, and to give reasonable results when used to test scientific theories about the Moon that nobody had thought of back then?
And all the time also be appropriate rocks for the locations they were found in the videos taken way back then of the astronauts actually picking them up?
EXAMPLE OF AN INTERESTING LUNAR ROCK STUDIED WITH TWENTY FIRST CENTURY INSTRUMENTS
For instance this one
Studied for instance in this 2009 paper examining isotope ratios and giving new results about the moon Early Lunar Magnetism
Do you think they anticipated that some time in 2009 someone would examine this rock and want to find out the isotope ratios of Argon and manipulated them to make them appropriate for a hyopthesis not even thought of at the time? And designed the film to make everything fit together seamlessly to fit those ideas?
MICROMETEORITE DAMAGE
And then - to somehow simulated micro-meteorite damage and spherules in all the lunar samples so that even when looked at with electron microscopes they still look like lunar rocks?
Spherule with micrometeorite damage in lunar rocks.
We don't get micrometeorites on Earth, because they burn up in the atmosphere, while the lunar rocks are damaged in this way. This is an immediate give away that the rocks come from somewhere in space, where they have been exposed to micrometeorites for billions of years.
Even today we wouldn't have the technology to simulate this damage on all the samples, so they would stand up to electron microscope scrutiny.
The rocks are similar to Earth rocks, true - that was a surprise, how similar they are, and lead to the theory that the Moon was formed by an impact with the Earth.
But not identical. One obvious difference is that they all had micro-meteorite impacts which Earth rocks don't have. At a level you can explore with the electron microscope - no way that could be simulated in 1960s. I don't think we could do it convincingly today - might spend millions of dollars trying to simulate a gram of lunar rock so that a randomly selected sample would look right in an electron microscope, and fail.
COMPOSITION OF THE ROCKS
Also they were very very dry, lacking in volatiles and not hydrated like their Earth counterparts. And many are as old as 4.5 billion years old, older than any Earth rocks. See Moon rock
And the rocks match the rocks that the astronauts can be seen picking up on the Moon in the videos, same shape, exactly the right material etc. to match the place they pick it up in the lunar surface.
Or if you think unmanned rovers on the Moon brought the rocks back - how do they exactly match the rocks the astronauts pick up in the videos?
Also, not just returned by US astronauts.
The Russian Luna program returned a total of 0.326 kg in all their missions to the Moon, which confirms what's been found in the Apollo rocks.
The rocks don't match any other rocks from Earth, or outer space.
We now have Lunar meteorites which we can recognize because they match the composition of the lunar rocks.
Here is a comment by an expert on lunar meteorites:
"Any geoscientist (and there have been thousands from all over the world) who has studied lunar samples knows that anyone who thinks the Apollo lunar samples were created on Earth as part of government conspiracy doesn't know much about rocks. The Apollo samples are just too good. They tell a self-consistent story with a complexly interwoven plot that's better than any story any conspirator could have conceived. I've studied lunar rocks and soils for 40+ years and I couldn't make even a poor imitation of a lunar breccia, lunar soil, or a mare basalt in the lab. And with all due respect to my clever colleagues in government labs, no one in "the Government" could do it either, even now that we know what lunar rocks are like. Lunar samples show evidence of formation in an extremely dry environment with essentially no free oxygen and little gravity. Some have impact craters on the surface and many display evidence for a suite of unanticipated and complicated effects associated with large and small meteorite impacts. Lunar rocks and soil contain gases (hydrogen, helium, nitrogen, neon, argon, krypton, and xenon) derived from the solar wind with isotope ratios different than Earth forms of the same gases. They contain crystal damage from cosmic rays. Lunar igneous rocks have crystallization ages, determined by techniques involving radioisotopes, that are older than any known Earth rocks. (Anyone who figures out how to fake that is worthy of a Nobel Prize.) It was easier and cheaper to go to the Moon and bring back some rocks then it would have been to create all these fascinating features on Earth."
TRACKING BY INDEPENDENT OBSERVERS
The Apollo 11 mission, as for the other missions, was tracked by professional astronomers and keen amateurs (reported in Sky at Night magazine) on its way to the Moon.
See Telescopic Tracking of the Apollo Lunar Missions
Also the Jodrell bank telescope tracked it along with all the other space missions on its way to the Moon, with such precision, that using doppler shift of the signal they could see in their recordings where Neil Armstrong took over with manual control during descent to the lunar surface.
Referred to here: Jodrell Bank stories - I'll try to find a better link to it.
They also simultaneously tracked the Luna 15 attempt by Russia to return a sample from the Moon which crashed somewhere in the sea of tranquility.
You can listen to the recording of them as they tracked Lunar 15, with the sound of the Apollo astronauts in the background in the broadcasts they picked up from the Moon here: Jodrell Bank Centre for Astrophysics
For more about this, see Third-party evidence for Apollo Moon landings (Wikipedia)
SIMULATING WALKING ON THE MOON
And do you think they really managed to simulate Apollo astronauts walking on the Moon to look real, to this day?
When the most sophisticated movie about the Moon done before the landing was 2001, the year before - where this is their best footage they managed, after five years of work on the film, for the lunar sequence:
I can tell you the film was pretty amazing to watch at the time. We didn't know any better. It came out in 1968, the year before Apollo 11 landed on the Moon.
But look at it today - and is obvious those astronauts are just walking slowly, doesn't even resemble the lunar walking on the Moon.
Even today, our movies of astronauts on the Moon surface are not convincing for those who watched the Apollo landings. For instance on the "Apollo 18" movie - looks nothing like the real thing, just walking slowly basically.
I think myself, the only way to do it reasonably convincingly, even today - apart from microgravity flights and film everything in planes 20 seconds at a time - is something like this
From the NASA Archive: The Lunar Walking Problem | Science | WIRED
Which NASA did have in the 1960s - but - I've never seen anyone suggest they used this - and - how could you anyway - attach wires to absolutely everything that moves (including flag etc).
In a Mythbusters episode they looked at the idea that the moon walking could be done by slow motion video, and showed that it didn't look exactly like the lunar footage + other tests of moon conspiracy ideas. Episode 104: NASA Moon Landing
Here is another take on the whole thing by a movie director:
Writer/director S G Collins of Postwar Media debunks every theory that the Apollo Moon landings could have been faked in a studio. The filmmaker takes a look at the video technology of the late 1960's, showing alleged fraud was simply not possible.
And you can now see photographs of the tracks they made on the Moon, taken from orbit.
It's not only harder to fake than to do it. It's literally impossible to fake, not without ability to look into the future and have technology not yet invented and know about future scientific theories and instruments not yet invented.
MITCHELL AND WEBB SKETCH
See also The Great Moon Hoax - and the other answers on this page are great :).
PROFESSIONAL CALM OF THE ASTRONAUTS
Actually I wonder if part of it was because most of the astronauts were so professional about it and calm. They don't really seem like people doing things for the first time ever perhaps. Maybe it looks as if they can't be in any danger because they are so very calm?
But remember these are people who are professionally trained to be calm in the middle of a crisis in a jet fighter which is about to crash. It takes years of training to be as steady and calm as that - you and I could never do it without that training (unless you are in a similar profession).
We've seen so many movies of things like this and the actors in the movies are so much more excited by things and scared by them (even though it is acted) than the lunar astronauts seemed to be, and convey that excitement and fear to the audience well. Perhaps, paradoxically, if we'd sent actors to the Moon they would have been more convincing to the skeptics :).
On that first landing on the Moon especially - though they had done everything they could to make it safe - there was certainly a real risk that they would crash (even through momentary pilot error) and a significant risk that once landed, they would not be able to leave the Moon again but would die there or crash on take off. And they all knew that. The US had even prepared a speech for the president to say in the event that the Apollo 11 astronauts landed, and could not take off from the Moon again.
Here it is
But you'd never guess that they knew that from the way they talked.
Here is Neil Armstrong narrating the video of their landing, done in parallel with Google Moon
Well - the scientists wanted to return to the Moon immediately. Apollo 17 was the very first mission to send a scientist to the Moon - a geologist. He is the only scientist ever to study the lunar ...
(more)Well - the scientists wanted to return to the Moon immediately. Apollo 17 was the very first mission to send a scientist to the Moon - a geologist. He is the only scientist ever to study the lunar surface in person. And in those days geologists on Earth couldn't get that good an idea from the grainy live video.
Carl Sagan once said it was like buying an expensive car, taking it out for a few short drives - and then keeping it in a garage for the rest of your life.
This shows that Apollo was not science lead. Also they kept all the missions very short, and studied only a small part of the surface around each landing site.
They had two aims basically
But those were to some extent incompatible. The political aim was best served by returning the astronauts to Earth immediately as soon as they set foot on the Moon - because every EVA was an extra risk that perhaps they might not make it back alive.
For the scientific aim they'd have loved to have someone up there for weeks or longer studying the Moon.
There is also the whole thing that each mission did run a risk that one or more of the astronauts wouldn't get back. So - at what point do you stop? Every time you do a new Apollo you add to the chances that you lose one or more of your astronauts.
Although the systems were much more reliable by Apollo 17, still it wasn't like driving to work or taking a airplane flight. These were risky missions and any mission could lead to an astronaut dying.
It's not actually true that we know a huge amount about the Moon. Much of it comes from the last mission because that was the only one with a geologist.
The other astronauts did have some geological field training - but were basically jet fighter pilots who were no more geologists than you or me. They did their best, but no substitute for a proper geologist.
So we have lots of rocks. But not so much by way of rocks carefully selected by a trained geologist. Those only come from the last Apollo 17 mission.
You can tell that from the last mission where Harrison Schmidt made many "on the spot" decisions based on what he found there.
The Moon did turn out to be totally dry - and lifeless - and - so since one of the things of most interest to us is search for life - that's probably main reason focus then turned so much on Mars.
But there is much of interest that we don't understand about the Moon. And - it's now believed it has substantial ice deposits at its poles. And lava caves.
At the time of Apollo nobody suspected the ice deposits which if they exist are in regions of perpetual darkness at the poles, and the caves had not been discovered either. First discovered in 2009 Found: first ‘skylight’ on the moon. There was only indirect evidence before that- the rilles with some of them collapsed, one of the Apollo missions landed next to a collapsed rille, but no way to prove that any of the uncollapsed rilles were hollow.
And - must have meteorites on it from Earth - e.g. that got sent there as a result of the KT boundary asteroid that helped make the dinosaurs extinct.
That's interesting - as it might also have life there - not modern life - but samples from Earth. Not too far fetched to suppose it might have fragments of ammonites for instance from that impact - which was into a shallow tropical sea. And many earlier impacts into Earth - even way back before our fossil record begins.
And - of course - not corrupted by Earth life - though - it would be by cosmic radiation - and the harsh conditions there - degenerated. Maybe best place to look for meteorites in the polar ice deposits?
You could look for them - perhaps deep enough underground to be protected from radiation - and in ice deposits so that they are not completely dried out either. Maybe small fragments first, who knows, they might be numerous in those conditions in the polar ice on Mars, just a thought...
For more about this idea see Moon rock may contain evidence of ancient life on Earth, experts say
Another reason to go back is to build radio telescopes on the far side of the Moon where they would be shielded from radio transmissions from EArth - those block off much of the radio sky from radio astronomy with only a few narrow bands they can use to observe the universe in radio waves.
So - there are lots of reasons to go back.
But we don't have the capability to send humans there now. And will be risky - do we want to take the risk that an astronaut would die going to the Moon? Would be more risky than the ISS for sure.
May be that we do robotic exploration of the Moon instead. Can also do telerobotic exploration from L1 or L2. And we can also do "artificial real time" exploration.
It's used in online multi-player computer games apparently - you use a simulation of the real environment which is updated frequently - but not in real time - and your actions are delayed very much like the time delay from Earth to the Moon - but is seamless because when you move, your actions instead modify the simulated environment - which to you seems real time - although your actions haven't yet happened in the on-line world.
~So - if that works for gaming - maybe it would work for lunar exploration also. E.g. as you move the rover - it moves over a simulated environment apparently in real time - though actual movements happen a couple of seconds later. If you combine that with a bit of autonomy such as collision avoidance etc - maybe that could make it easier to explore the Moon directly from the Earth.
Here is a video about the idea
See also, my Case For Moon - New Positive Future For Humans In Space - Open Ended With Planetary Protection At Its Heart as an article on my Science20 blog, also available online in book format and as a kindle booklet on Amazon.
Also, see the facebook group: Case for Moon - Open Ended with Planetary Protection at its Core
You don't need to know much about this to see that 5,000 is a larger number than 0.076 :).
Surface of Mars has same radiation levels as
Interior of ISS
- obviously not instantly lethal to microbes, indeed microbes are a major problem in a space station, they have to take many measures to prevent build up of harmful levels and biofilms.
- Chroococcidiopsis, one of the microbes we have on Earth best able to survive in Mars surface conditions can recover from a radiation dose of 5 kGy in 24 hours
- So for instance Chroococcidiopsis could repair about 64,000 years worth of damage in 24 hours.
Nilton Renno is a mainstream researcher in the field - a distinguished professor of atmospheric, oceanic and space sciences at Michigan University - who lead the team of researchersThere is no doubt at all that he is a notable and reliable primary source on this subject according to the wikipedia guidelines - and his papers also.
For instance, he received the 2013 NASA Group Achievement Award as member of the Curiosity Rover " for exceptional achievement defining the REMS scientific goals and requirements, developing the instrument suite and investigation, and operating REMS successfully on Mars" and has written many papers on the subject.
Paul Erdős who devoted his entire adult life to theorem proving - just about everything else came second to that
Wang tiles which can be used to simulate the behaviour of any Turing machine. Because the halting problem is non computable, then there is no computable function that, given a finite set of Wang tiles, can put any bounds on the size of the largest region it can tile.
The Moon for sure. Yes they went to the Moon "because it is hard" - is a good bit of rhetoric in a speech. But doesn't mean that you just out and do the most impossible thing you can find to do.
In...
The Moon for sure. Yes they went to the Moon "because it is hard" - is a good bit of rhetoric in a speech. But doesn't mean that you just out and do the most impossible thing you can find to do.
In case of Apollo they did many previous missions to Earth orbit, around the Moon etc before they went to the Lunar surface.
So - even if you are planning to go to Mars eventually you need easier objectives first. And the Moon is the obvious stepping stone on our way to anywhere in space.
Either the Moon - or - in orbit around the Moon - or in the L1 or L2 positions in gravitational equilibrium above near and far sides of the Moon (sort of a bit like geostationary orbit for the Moon).
MOON ITSELF STILL A MAJOR CHALLENGE JUST TO GET THERE
Indeed - the Moon is also quite a challenge. We can't just get out the 1960s hardware and fly that. Would need to make new rockets, and we'd need at least several previous test launches, just as for Apollo, before it's reasonably safe to send a human to the surface of the Moon once again.
Our hardware is more capable - but also more complex - in some ways - that means there is more to go wrong. After all the rather venerable Soyuz is still the favoured way to get humans into space - because of its long history and safety record.
It might take a while to get modern rockets with similar assurance of reliability for humans as the old Apollo hardware.
SECOND CHALLENGE - TO STAY THERE FOR YEARS ON END ONCE WE GET THERE
Once we can have manned outposts on the Moon or in orbit around the Moon, or in L1 or L2 above the lunar surface, that last for years on end with no resupply from Earth - we can think about going to other places in the solar system.
But to launch out to Mars even the shortest flyby as in Inspiration Mars - I was keen on the idea when I first heard it - but on reflecting, it really seems like madness to do that first.
We have never sent anyone further than LEO since Apollo - and never sent anyone anywhere at all without resource to continual resupply from Earth every few months and return of wastes to Earth atmosphere. And not just small amounts, many tons of resupply and waste disposal per astronaut.
SOYUZ LIFEBOAT
And as well as that, they have a Soyuz spacecraft constantly docked to the ISS which they can use to fly back to Earth at a moments notice if a disaster were to strike.
The idea that suddenly we can send expeditions to Mars orbit, with
- on reflection - it seems like madness :).
CHALLENGES
Major human factor challenges include
So - we have to crack this closer to Earth first. Anything else is a recipe for disaster and tragedy in my view.
SOME QUESTIONS FOR MARS FIRST ENTHUSIASTS
Do you think that we could send a mission to the Moon - or to L1 or L2 - and just leave it there for two or three years without resupply from Earth with present day technology?
If so - if we have the technology for interplanetary flight already - or nearly ready - why do we spend so much every year on continually changing the crew of the ISS and resupplying them from Earth?
Why do we think a lifeboat is so important for the ISS, that they can get back to Earth within hours?
If you hesitate at the prospect of a human crew spending two or three years at the L2 position on far side of the Moon with no resupply from Earth - why do you think that they will fare better on a mission to Mars?
INTERESTING MOON
Luckily the Moon has turned out to be far more interesting than we realised before. And - it has hardly been explored at all. Only one geologist has ever been there, on Apollo 17 and he spent a few short hours on the surface. There's a huge amount to be done on the Moon.
ROBOTIC MARS
Meanwhile we do have a number of exciting missions to Mars. Can't do as much as robots controlled telerobotically by humans.
But will get increasingly more capable and autonomous also.
For more on this see my Case For Moon - New Positive Future For Humans In Space - Open Ended With Planetary Protection At Its Heart
Before launching the first man to orbit in 1961, the USSR had sent dummy human figures, wearing tags printed with the name Ivan Ivanovich, to space. The dummies flew in Vostok capsule test flights from Baikonur Cosmodrome in Central Asia.So - there may also be a dummy Russian cosmonaut complete with space suit in a spinning Vostock test capsule somewhere up there!
Georgi Grechko, a veteran of three Soviet space flights, said in 1991 he witnessed the dummy flights and all early manned flights as assistant to the Soviet Union's chief space rocket designer Sergei Korolev.
The dummies were dressed in real space suits and their capsules carried tape-recorded messages to simulate two-way radio. The messages were combinations of letters and numbers. The taped transmissions, overheard around the globe, led to rumors that a cosmonaut had called for help from an out-of-control spacecraft.
Grechko said some rockets blew up before the Gagarin flight. Controllers lost one pre-Vostok test capsule in space, he said. It may still be spinning off somewhere in the cosmos. But most of the dummy test capsules landed as commanded, bouncing down at various sites in Central Asia where they were found by local residents. Seeing lifeless dummies in space suits, those residents spread rumors that cosmonauts had died.
Answers To Your Questions
“Among the nearly thirty Apollo astronauts, Jack Swigert had the best knowledge of Command Module malfunction procedures,” said Woodfill. “Some have said that Jack had practically written the malfunction procedures for the Command Module. So, he was the most conversant astronaut for any malfunction that occurred in the CSM.”
13 Things That Saved Apollo 13, Part 3: Charlie Duke’s Measles
This diagram shows the complexity of the DNA as measured using the number of functional non redundant nucleotides.
As you can see - if you project back - we know about less than half of the evolutionary timeline to modern life.
The next talk was by Janice Bishop who summarized the mineral diversity in the site. She showed a bewildering number of spectra from Mawrth, and drove home the fact that the mineralogy observed occurs in the same stratigraphic order all over mawrth and all over much of the Arabia Terra region on Mars, supporting the idea that understanding Mawrth would teach us about a huge section of the planet. One of the interesting things that Janice and others showed is that these compositional layers are observed in some layered rock in the floor of Oyama crater, the huge crater to the west of the ellipse. This is interesting because it is thought that the rocks in the ellipse are older than Oyama, and obviously the rocks filling Oyama are younger. The fact that they show the same mineral stratigraphy suggests that the related alteration came after the physical deposition of the rocks.NASA would approach this by returning 500 grams of samples from these rock formations. Obviously it can't sample every layer - just one sample from each of the layers they think are likely to be of most interest for biology. Layers that have organics obviously - but organics here doesn't mean life.
At the end of the discussion of Mawrth, I felt a lot better about the site than I did before going in. There is clearly a lot of good stuff to do there, and it has a couple of undeniable advantages: it is clearly the oldest site, and you get to land on your primary target. But I’m also concerned by what I hear from terrestrial geologists who are very concerned about how much Mawrth would actually tell us about the habitability of Mars. Yes, it has spectacular phyllosilicates, but it’s not clear that they would trap any organics since we don’t know what the depositional setting was. I think despite this uncertainty, if you polled the community, Mawrth would be one of the top two sites.
Well those are the main explanations. To add a few details - they are thought to be dry ice geysers.
The dry ice is frozen and transparent or semi transparent, and as it warms up, enough light gets ...
(more)Well those are the main explanations. To add a few details - they are thought to be dry ice geysers.
The dry ice is frozen and transparent or semi transparent, and as it warms up, enough light gets through to warm up the lowest layer of dry ice until it explodes as a geyser.
The same process on Earth creates thin layers of liquid water below ice sheets - it's called the solid state greenhouse effect. It quite probably creates thin layers of trapped water below ice sheets on Mars also - water ice in that case.
But this is dry ice, too cold for the phenomenon to be due to water ice melting, and for that matter, ice gets denser when it melts so wouldn't melt explosively like this, while dry ice gets less dense as it sublimes to the gas phase. So surely the geysers must be created by dry ice.
If it is a geyser effect that is.
Sand geysers could explain mystery spots on Mars
Cosmic Old Faithful: Are There Geysers on Mars? | TIME.com
That doesn't seem too hospitable for life. But the same mechanism - the solid state greenhouse effect (dry ice acting as an insulating and warming layer) - could also perhaps warm it enough to create trapped patches of melted water ice, which life could use.
I think there's also the possibility of life growing directly on the surface, e.g. lichens - maybe the geysers produce nutrients they use to grow on.
I'm quite optimistic that we will find life on Mars.
This is not the top place to look for it - that would be either the warm seasonal flows - or the salt / water ice interface.
But still - I think there is a chance that the dark patches are at least partly created by life processes.
They do look so like life processes! Not a good reason for expecting them to be, I know, but would be cool if they were :).
UPDATE ON THIS ANSWER
I wrote this answer originally some time back - and have found out a lot more since then.
It turns out that though the initial spidery lines are created by CO2 processes, the later stages may well involve liquid water.
These are small features only a few tens of meters in length. And rather than appear explosively in one go, they grow, by a meter up to a few metres per Martian sol through late spring and summer on Mars.
Flow-like features on Dunes in Richardson Crater, Mars. - detail. This flow moves approximately 39 meters in 26 days between the last two frames in the sequence
There are different models for these features in the northern hemisphere (where they happen at much lower temperatures) and in the southern hemisphere.
For the southern features all the models proposed so far involve liquid water at some point. And not just that, one of the most promising models involves liquid fresh water, kept liquid because it is trapped under the ice. Quite thick also for Mars - of order of several cms depth of pure liquid water warmed up by the solid state greenhouse effect of ice above it. The main unknown here is whether or not Mars has clear water ice - the ice that on Earth is blue in colour - on Mars the conditions of formation are so very different, near vacuum and extreme changes of temperature day and night. But if it does have clear ice that the sun can penetrate, then the models show that it should have layers of liquid water below the surface. That then seems a very promising habitat for life on Mars.
I think this idea deserves much more publicity than it has had so far.
Note that this shouldn't be confused with the much more widely publicised RSLs. There are many dark streaks on Mars. Some are formed by avalanches and other wind effects. Some by dry ice blocks flowing down slopes. The RSLs are thought to be formed by some side effect of salty seeps of liquid water flowing down the slope - and they occur only on sun facing slopes when the local temperatures reach around OC and only on very few such slopes - most sun facing slopes don't have RSLs. So there is something in the local geology that makes them possible.
Anyway nearly all the other habitats proposed there are thought to consist of salty water, probably very salty to be stable for long enough to flow on Mars.
But these spidery dark lines form at much lower temperatures, far too cold for liquid water, and even salty brines. The later flow like features also form at temperatures too low for them to be explained in an ordinary way by water. But the solid state greenhouse effect gives a way for the liquid water to form beneath the ice when surface temperatures are well below zero. And as liquid fresh water. As far as I know this is the only proposed mechanism on Mars to date that could lead to liquid fresh water at above O C on the planet.
For this and many other ideas for possible habitats on Mars, see: Are There Habitats For Life On Mars? - Salty Seeps, Clear Ice Greenhouses, Ice Fumaroles, Dune Bioreactors,...
With one of these planes they found a way to put it into a stall at a 70° angle towards the Earth, They found that in this configuration, it falls reasonably slowly, rather like a parachute. The plan was to add thrusters for a vertical soft landing on the Martian surface.NASA's Langley Research Center Artist's concept of the Mars Airplane - one of many ideas - this is a tiny plane with five foot wingspan which folds to fit into an aeroshell for entry into the Mars atmosphere.
"Based on the results of our experiment, we expect this soft ice that can liquify perhaps a few days per year, perhaps a few hours a day, almost anywhere on Mars. So going from mid lattitudes all the way to the polar regions. This is a small amount of liquid water. But for a bacteria, that would be a huge swimming pool - a little droplet of water is a huge amount of water for a bacteria.That's Nilton Renno, a professor of atmospheric, oceanic and space sciences at Michigan University who lead the research. See also Martian salts must touch ice to make liquid water, study shows
So, a small amount of water is enough for you to be able to create conditions for Mars to be habitable today'. And we believe this is possible in the shallow subsurface, and even the surface of the Mars polar region for a few hours per day during the spring." (transcript from 2 minutes into the video onwards)
"Aren't we lucky that the started on terraforming so soon - they had such a far sighted clear idea of how to do it, well in advance of their time".
"What idiots they were, way back in the 21st century. to think they knew how to terraform planets. If only we could go back in time and stop them.
If only we had the opportunity to study and then work with their pristine solar system with our advanced technology, how much we could do!".
In brief, at 1.0 rpm even highly susceptible subjects were symptom-free, or nearly so. At 3.0 rpm subjects experienced symptoms but were not significantly handicapped. At 5.4 rpm, only subjects with low susceptibility performed well and by the second day were almost free from symptoms. At 10 rpm, however, adaptation presented a challenging but interesting problem. Even pilots without a history of air sickness did not fully adapt in a period of twelve days.That sort of research is the basis for the present day recommendations of 1 to 3 rpm.
The Architecture of Artificial-Gravity Environments for Long-Duration Space Habitation
Surprisingly, we can - but only for a short time. It loses its atmosphere quickly. Geoffery Landis looked into this. The Moon loses its hydrogen and helium very quickly, on a timescale of fifteen m...
(more)Surprisingly, we can - but only for a short time. It loses its atmosphere quickly. Geoffery Landis looked into this. The Moon loses its hydrogen and helium very quickly, on a timescale of fifteen minutes on the sunlit side, just because the gravity isn't strong enough to hold them in place. But it loses heavier gases like nitrogen and oxygen over time periods of thousands of years, longer than most civilizations last.
When the atmosphere is very thin, it loses nitrogen and oxygen much more quickly, as a result of the atoms getting ionized and then swept away by electric fields associated with the solar wind. They get lost in about 100 days. But if we can thicken the atmosphere up enough, this mechanism is no longer significant (the number of atoms ionized is the same or even increased a bit, but it's a tiny fraction of the atmosphere), and then the atmosphere will last for thousands of years. See his Air Pollution on the Moon for details. His main focus there is the adverse effect of the atmosphere created as a byproduct of industry on the Moon, leading to degradation of the valuable high vacuum there. But he does briefly touch on terraforming at the end.
Then Gregory Benford, the hard science fiction writer, thinks we can terraform it, in this rather intriguing article: A Terraformed Moon Would Be an Awful Lot Like Florida.
He envisions hitting the Moon with a hundred comets the size of Halley's comet - at the same time spinning it up so it has a day of 60 hours.(I'm not sure of his calculation, it seems that the number of comets needed is more like 10,000, see below).
Presumably you would keep adding new comets to it - but if he is right that 100 comets are enough - then just adding one new comet a century would keep it going - and you could do that without harm to the citizens of the Moon by breaking the comet up into tiny pieces before it impacts onto the lunar atmosphere. So what would it look like if we could terraform it? Well here is an artist's impression of a terraformed Moon.
I prefer this to ideas for terraforming Mars, because there is no life on the Moon to be impacted by it. Also the Moon is close to Earth, and it is clear that it has to maintain a high technology to keep it terraformed, so if both Earth and Moon have high technology, they can work together. The Moon is at a fixed distance, and we can set up some easy way of getting back and forth with space elevators or space tether systems. And use the same factories - and exchange materials from one to the other easily etc. It is similar to the idea of a very hugeStanford Torus, to terraform the Moon. It turns a lifeless though very large region into a habitable area.
With Mars, then if it can be terraformed, it's on the thousands of years timescale, with lots to go wrong. It may seem like a new earth but if you can terraform it as quickly as that, it needs mega technology to stay terraformed, and it might unterraform as quickly as it terraformed.
On Mars the plants have to work roughly three times harder than on Earth so it needs about three times as much oxygen to achieve the same partial pressurs on the surface. For the Moon the plants have to work six times harder, but they get about double the levels of sunlight they get on Mars for photosynthesis.
If you work it out in detail, there is very little between them in this respect
Detailed calculation: to achieve an Earth normal 10 tons per square meter of atmosphere pressure in lunar gravity - you need 60 tons per square meter of gas in mass. The plants need to maintain 12.7 tons of oxygen per square meter (2.095*9.807/1.622) instead of the 2..095 tons per square meter of oxygen for Earth. On Mars they need to maintain 5.54 tons per square meter (2.095*9.807/3.711). So they need to create 2.29 times as much oxygen on the Moon. Earth (and so the Moon) gets 2.25 times as much sunlight as Mars. So there isn't much in it.
Let's check his Halley's comet calculation, calculation indented and I'll include all the steps in detail to make it easy to check.
With a radius of the Moon of 1737.4 km I make the surface area of the Moon 4×π×1737.42 = 37,932,328 square kms. For an Earth pressure atmosphere we need (9.807/1.622)×10 tons per square meter, or around 60 tons per square meter, and multiply also by 10^6 for the number of square meters per square kilometer, that's 37,932,328 × 106×60 = 2.28×10^15 tons or 2.28 quadrillion tons. Halley's comet is 242.5 billion tons.
So you would need around 2.28 quadrillion/242.5 billion or 9,402 of Halley's comet.
Geoffrey Landis assumes a one psi atmosphere, of pure oxygen, at the Armstrong limit so about 6.9% and works out the total mass needed as two hundred trillion tons or about 825 Halley comets..But he works that out as 50 to 100 Halley comets so must be assuming a larger mass for Halley's comet of two to four trillion tons - it's an early paper from 1990 so I think he is just using older data for Halley's comet.
So, I think Gregory Benford's 100 Halley comets probably comes from Geoffrey Landis's paper. - it means 100 comets the size of Halley but with an older figure for the mass of Halley. And both are assuming the thinnest atomsphere a human can breathe without the moisture lining their lungs boiling.
Approaching it another way, our 2.28 quadrillion tons of atmosphere for an Earth normal atmosphere corresponds to around 2.28 million cubic kilometers of ice assuming average density of 1 (there are a billion tons to a cubic kilometer of water). Or assuming a density of 0.532 tons / cubic meter (same as comet 67p) that's 4.3 million cubic kilometers
So solving for radius, then you get
π×r^3×4/3 =4.3 ×10^6So r = cube root(4.3×106×3/(4×π))
= 100 km approx.
So in short, it seems that you need more like 10,000 copies of Halley's comet, or you could hit the Moon with a comet of about 200 km in diameter - or larger if the density is less than 0.532, less if it is more than 0.532. If you did that, you'd have enough material for an instant atmosphere. That is if it is all potential atmosphere, but of course a lot would be water, perhaps 80% which you'd need to convert to atmosphere somehow, perhaps split the hydrogen and oxygen to create an oxygen atmosphere.
If you aim is to make a CO2 atmosphere, then assuming it is 80% water, then you'd need
r = cube root(5×3.83×106×3/(4×π))
= 166 km approx. Or 332 km in diameter.
If the aim is nitrogen, with 0.5% of the comet made of nitrogen, and needing 78% of the atmosphere as nitrogen, you are talking about cube root((100/0.5)×0.78×3.83×10^6×3/(4×π)) or 522 kim in radius, so about 1044 km in diameter. There would then be plenty of water, and carbon dioxide.
Once we can move large comets easily from the outer to the inner soar system, this could be possible selecting a large comet of a suitable composition. You'd have a lot of water as well which would be useful.
Then - for a breathable atmosphere - then you need to have a buffer gas, which on Earth is nitrogen (CO2 is poisonous to humans in large concentrations). You can have a thinner pure oxygen atmosphere with no buffer gas, but this is a fire risk (as we found out in practice with theApollo 1 disaster), so not likely to be used for terraforming or large scale habitats, though it is used for spacesuits as it reduces the pressure inside the suit so makes them more flexible and easier to use and the fire risk can be managed in a spacesuit by using fireproof materials. It's not really feasible though to make a terraformed Moon in its entirety fire resistant.
So most of that weight needs to be nitrogen - unless you have some alternative buffer gas. Halley's comet has hardly any ammonia (NH3). As for Kuiper belt objects, their interior composition is highly varied from rocky all the way to solid ice,
The compositions of Kuiper belt objects - but I can't find much about the ammonia and nitrogen abundances inside the objects (rather than on the surface). There are some meteorites also that are rich in nitrates. But finding enough nitrogen might be a problem if that's our buffer gas, seems to me. Titan has a dense nitrogen atmosphere, and is larger than our Moon and has an Earth pressure atmosphere so it has enough nitrogen, it's just in the wrong place and inaccessible from Earth. It doesn't seem practical to transport its atmosphere to the Moon. Also, it's unique and interesting in its own right, as the only moon of its type in our solar system.
So, it seems that we depend on comets. If a comet is only 0.4% ammonia, or nitrogen etc., you need nearly 200 times as many comets for the nitrogen, so two million copies of Halley's comet. Or a comet 6.3 times larger turning our 200 km comet into a 1,260 km diameter dwarf planet.
Maybe you have to hunt around - there are lots of Kuiper belt objects, we only have discovered a tiny fraction of them and maybe one of them has lots of nitrogen? For all we know, maybe when we expand the search, maybe we find tens of thousands of nitrogen rich Kuiper belt objects the size of Halley's Comet - far too small to spot from Earth with existing telescopes? We can't really do a decent calculation here unless someone has a good idea of a source with a well known nitrogen rich composition.
If we find one, then we have to move it into the inner solar system and hit the Moon (gently) before the nitrogen rich ammonia (or more difficult, nitrogen ice) gets a chance to evaporate. If it is a large body and we move it into the inner solar system quickly, this seems feasible, without going into details of the calculation. It would be a bit like storing ice through the summer which they used to do in high latitudes before freezers and refrigerators. Or for that matter, with the level of technology we are imagining here, we could just cover the comet with a reflective layer to keep it cool for the journey.
Another problem - if you want an oxygen rich atmosphere - well the Earth had reduced iron and it took millions of years to oxidize it before we managed to get an oxygen rich atmosphere. Basically, all the reduced iron has to rust. A process that has already happened on Earth, and on Mars (it's the reason the surface is red) - but not yet on the Moon.
So - same is likely to happen on the Moon. Maybe we can speed it up but for a long time all the oxygen we create will get absorbed by the lunar crust through chemical reactions, as happened on Earth in the early stages of the Great Oxygenation Event
"The upper few kilometers of the lunar surface contain several times 1018 kg of iron(II) which in the presence of water would readily react with oxygen to form iron(III). Such an amount of iron(II) could easily absorb all of the oxygen in the Earth atmosphere.
"A large fraction of the Moons crust consists of oxides of calcium, magnesium, and iron(II), which in the presence of water would react to form hydroxides that would (partly) dissolve in the forming seas to create a poisonously alkaline fluid, with pH 10--11. If enough oxygen were available to oxidize the dissolved iron(II) hydroxides, insoluble iron(III) hydroxides would precipitate on the sea floors and shores, creating vast quantities of slightly poisonous, orange mud. Such reactions would be violent and fast in the upper part of the crust, but their rate would decrease with increasing depth. The oxidizing, hydration, and other processes would continue for ages. In the meantime oxygen and other pressures would not be stable. Most of important all: the absorption of such enormous amounts of oxygen, water, by the upper part of the crust of the Moon would make the rocks expand by perhaps as much as ten percent or more. One can wonder if such expansion would be a tranquil process. It could create strong quakes for possibly many thousands of years. "
from: An Atmosphere for the Moon
So, the upshot of all this is, the terraforming the Moon may well be possible with future technology which may not be that far away, especially with nuclear fusion or such like. But I think it may be a little harder than Greg Benford suggests in his article.
If I've got the figures right here, you need 10,000 Halley comets, or a giant comet 200 km in diameter. If you need to supply nitrogen as a buffer gas from comets with the same composition as Halley, you need two million copies of Halley's comet, or a larger dwarf planet perhaps up to 1,260 km diameter depending on how much nitrogen it has in its composition. After that, you would have many issues with reaction of the water with the dry lunar surface. And then the plants would have to work six times harder than on Earth to produce the same partial pressure of oxygen.
Do be sure to correct me if I have made any mistakes here!
Of course many of these issues would also turn up for Mars, and if you compare it with Mars it doesn't seem so bad.
Mars would need similarly huge amounts of nitrogen for instance, less per surface area but more in absolute terms.
Comparison of mass of nitrogen needed for Mars and the Moon: the Mars surface area is 144.8 km² and for the Moon, 37.9 km². To get the same atmospheric pressure, the Moon has to have 2.29 times as much mass per square meter than Mars. So the amount of mass needed for Mars is 144.8/(37.9* 2.29) so Mars needs 1.67 times the mass for the Moon. Or about 3.34 million Halley comets to supply it with nitrogen, unless it is available indigenously.
The plants have to work six times harder just as for the Moon. The atmosphere lasts longer on Mars, but it's not a permanent feature without megaengineering - it will disappear over millions of years timescales. On Mars you need to have global mirrors or greenhouse gases and still supply some volatiles with comets, for the Moon you don't need to compensate for reduced sunlight but need a constant input of volatiles.
New carbon cycles have to be set in place in both cases to return carbon to the atmosphere and these have to be based on novel principles as Earth's cycles won't work in the same way, especially the long term conversion of limestone back to CO2 as a result of subduction due to continental drift won't work on the Moon or Mars. As for the Moon, Mars also has deserts which are extremely dry and will take up much of the water if water is added to the planet (though it doesn't have the problem of oxygen reacting with the surface materials). And so on.
So - the Moon might not be so bad if you compare it to Mars, maybe you could terraform it a bit faster as a smaller object needing less total mass, and it doesn't need any supplemented sunlight or greenhouse gases. But it seems an impractically mega project even so with present day technology.
To last longer than a few thousand years, it would need constant maintenance in the form of extra volatiles from comets, but the same is true for ideas of terraforming Mars they need constant maintenance in the form of orbiting mirrors or greenhouse gases and need some resupply of volatiles as well to keep it terraformed (if it worked). In the case of Mars that's because the planet is too cold to remain habitable without orbiting mirrors or greenhouse gases, while in the cases of the Moon it is because its gravity can't hold onto its atmosphere. Mars loses its atmosphere also, but on much longer timescales.
However, it's not really that much different.
The timescales are similar too for creating the atmospheres. To create an oxygen rich atmosphere on Mars means sequestering out all the carbon assuming there is enough CO2 to make an Earth density atmosphere whihch most think there isn't (at most enough for 10%) and that process would take around 100,000 years using photosynthesis, as a result of which Mars would of course cool down even further without CO2 to warm it up so need more greenhouse gases or orbital mirrors.
I'm not suggesting we terraform either. I don't think we are anywhere near the stage where it makes much sense to attempt terraforming, a trillion dollars a year project that you have to commit to for thousands of years, whether it is for the Moon or for Mars or anywhere else. We find it hard to commit to a space project for a few decades and a few billion dollars a year. That's apart from planetary protection issues. And as well, we just don't know anything like enough about how ecosystems work, getting unpleasant surprises with "toy ecosystems" the size of Biosphere II, and not able to make even tiny changes to the atmosphere of Earth. If we could make a 0.01% change in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere the global warming crisis would be over right away.
However, just as a matter of the physics. the Moon can in principle be terraformed though with many issues you'd have to sort out. But the same is true for Mars. I don't see them as that much different actually. Not with present day ideas of terraforming. We would need to understand this all in a lot more detail than we do now to see which is best, if either can be terraformed in practice
Terraforming the Moon is another of those topics that doesn't seem to have a lot of attention in the academic literature. But apart from Greg Benford's article, here are forum discussions which are a good source of ideas, though of course not peer reviewed:
And then the An Atmosphere for the Moon and there's the Universe Today's HOW DO WE TERRAFORM THE MOON?
However there is another solution:
PARATERRAFORMING THE MOON
Paraterraforming means covering the surface with habitats, eventually domed cities and eventually the entire surface covered in habitats. Eventually they could merge together to make a kind of a sky to hold the atmosphere in - with lots of partitions for safety.
That needs far less atmosphere - because instead of 60 tons of mass per square meter to supply atmospheric pressure - you just have as much air as is needed to fill your greenhouses, which may have heights measured in meters. Even if the greenhouses are a hundred meters high, that's 122.5 kilograms per square meter instead of 60 tons per square meter of air, a huge saving (using density of air of 1.225 kg / m2)
Can a complex closed ecosystem work with a shallower atmosphere like that? They thought it might with Biosphere II but it proved harder than expected, still there doesn't seem to be any major reasons why not. You still have the problem also of oxygen and chemical reactions. But maybe at the same time that you enclose them from above, you can insulate them from the subsurface as well so they don't lose their oxygen through chemical reactions with the lunar soil. One way to do that would be to turn the surface into glass, though you might instead want to use bulldozers to remove a few meters depth of regolith, turn the layer below into glass then replace the regolith to use as soil. This is quite reminiscent of Biosphere II where one of the main reasons it failed was because of chemical reactions involving the concrete the habitat was made of.
This has many advantages
I can't find an illustration of a paraterraformed Moon but the same idea can be used for large asteroids and small moons too, if you can tolerate the low gravity. Here is an artist's impression of a paraterraformed Phobos by Ittiz
MOON COMPARED WITH MARS AND FREE FLIGHT STANFORD TORUS ETC
Has a major advantage over Mars that it is close to Earth so easier for the Moon and Earth to support each other technologically, rescue missions in early stages etc.
Plus - that it has similar orbit to Earth, many similarities such as tides (from the Earth) - same length of year - and same amount of light from the sun.
What we don't know is the gravity prescription - how much gravity do humans need for health? If we can be healthy in lunar gravity then that would be encouraging. But if not - you do have the option of continually spinning habitats - or sleeping in a train that runs around a track, or habitats on tracks etc. Or depending on spin tolerance and gravity prescription, personal small arm centrifuges for sleep or for a few hours a day.
MORE RESEARCH NEEDED
I think - that making a Stanford Torus is likely to work better than either - though we haven't yet done the basic research needed to know for sure.
However - I don't see also how a Mars colony can keep it free of Earth life and the main reason to go to Mars right now is to learn about Martian life if it exists. So that would seem to rule out Mars, for now at least - at least Mars surface - free flying habitats in Mars orbit using materials from Deimos might be compatible with planetary protection and also very useful for exploring Mars via telepresence.
DO WE WANT TO TERRAFORM?
Do we want to terraform or colonize anywhere? What's the reason for doing it?
For most of the reasons I can think of, a Stanford Torus works better, small, self contained, and you can experiment with many different ways of doing things, variable gravity so you can set it to full Earth g, even more, or to far less Mars, Lunar or even less if you want - and if things go wrong can just start again.
Seems the best way to begin given that we know nothing about terraforming and have no experience of what it might do.
WHAT ABOUT LONG DISTANT FUTURE?
As you might see from some of my other answers, I have a few questions about whether we should colonize the galaxy at all - - and - if we start to colonize our solar system - can we avoid also colonizing the galaxy long term?
But can a galaxy filled with a hundred billion trillion humans work, and would it be good for other ETs or ourselves or would we be the monsters in the galaxy who spoil it for everyone?
So - I have these long term issues with it all.
Tend to urge caution - go slowly, find out as much as we can - and is no urgency about it.
NO IMMINENT THREAT
Earth is not faced by any imminent threat, not a natural one for sure - yes in a few hundred million years, but for the next few thousands and millions of years we don't need to work on imminent plans to leave Earth.
The creatures who may need to escape Earth would be so far into the future they have surely evolved to new species. It's far enough into the future for humans to evolve all the way from the first multi-cellular lifeforms a second time.
PERHAPS IN DISTANT FUTURE?
But - maybe some time in the not so distant future we will understand the universe far better, and our capabilities better, maybe even also encountered other ETs - we might learn a lot from them about what is possible or not and what can go wrong. Maybe spot other technological ETs that have attempted terraforming and find out what happened to them. Maybe spot other galaxies that have been colonized (if ours has not) - and see what happened to them.
Or learn about exoplanets and have experience of closed habitats in Stanford Toruses etc.
Maybe that will give us the knowledge we need to do big things like terraforming planets safely and with full understanding of how it works and its implications for the future.
And who knows how soon that future might come, but personally I don't think we are there quite yet :).
But - weren't at all conclusive. This is from the
Allan Hills 84001 meteorite - the one that NASA for a while thought proved that Mars had life in the past - but then they found alternative non life explanations - and the forms in it are too small for present day Earth life (but about the right size for life that must have existed on Earth before modern life evolved).
These are early stromatolites - but they only know that because of analysis of organic traces in the rocks. Were controversial for a long time. If we spot things like this on Mars - they might be stromatolites - but might just be rock formations formed in other ways.
Volcanic cone in Nili Patera Caldera. The light coloured deposits marked with the arrows are hydrothermal vent deposits, which show that it must originally have been warm and wet in the ancient Noachian period.
At 1:45 "If you look inside a computer, you find an impressive assembly of basic mechanisms. Some of them are duplicated many times in one computer"If they have no idea of numbers - or numbers are very abstract concepts for them - then they could still have analogue computers like this, as the computers are based on direct analogue connections between things and don't need to use numbers as such.
Wikipedia article about it, range keeper.
Image of the 1987 supernova - the closest supernova to us observed since invention of the telescope, in 1987, in the Large Magellanic cloud SN 1987A - I invented my game in the same year this hit the astronomy news - a big event in observational astronomy - so a date that I'm not likely to forget :).
“Sweet Bassanio, my ships have all miscarried. My creditors grow cruel. My estate is very low. My bond to the Jew is forfeit. And since in payi...(more)
“Sweet Bassanio, my ships have all miscarried. My creditors grow cruel. My estate is very low. My bond to the Jew is forfeit. And since in paying it, it is impossible I should live, all debts are cleared between you and I if I might but see you at my death. Notwithstanding, use your pleasure. If your love do not persuade you to come, let not my letter.”Wikipedia article about it: Between you and I
The cells are contained in a tube giving it a kind of a structure - and the large cells shown with arrows specialize in nitrogen fixing, making it a single organism with differentiated cells for different tasks - although rather simple compared with most multi-cellular eukaryote based lifeforms.
See Bacteria with bodies – multicellular prokaryotes | Lab Rat, Scientific American Blog Network
Hertzsprung Russell diagram for M55 of stars of different masses but all around the same age - showing "Blue Branch" at top left, main sequence goes diagonally from bottom right to top left (accordiing to mass of the star) - and the "turn off" shows that the heaviest, brightest stars have already evolved off the main sequence. But the blue branch stars - though heavy - are still close to the main sequence because they have entered this steady slow helium burning phase.
I've got my own take on this. A little way into the future, we may well have the capability to
I've got my own take on this. A little way into the future, we may well have the capability to
WHY THESE ARE REASONABLY LIKELY THINGS FOR US TO ACHIEVE AFTER AT MOST A FEW CENTURIES OF TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
Note - I'm not making any controversial assumptions here at all. These are all reasonable projects for future technology.
For instance - there is a big debate about whether programmed machines can be self aware. Personally I think a programmed machine will never be self aware, persuaded by Penrose's arguments on the matter.
But - whatever you think about that - all we need here for our self replicators is that they are machines that can make exact copies of themselves - apart from that don't need to be especially sophisticated. So for instance - if you want to build enough solar panels to provide all the energy we need on the Earth from solar power - just build one self replicating machine with a solar panel as the main element of its design - and then task it to make copies of itself using materials in the NEOs. Process will be slow to start with, maybe just one solar panel the first year, two the next, four the next - but after surprisingly few years you have made all the solar panels in space that you could ever need.
We are just a few technological steps away from doing that, and surely will have the ability, say, by the end of this century. Basically just need 3D printers that work at the nanoscale level able to replicate computer chips - and then there would be few other things to sort out except details.
The other things in the list are also straightforward extrapolations from things we can do already.
Except perhaps fusion power - but - though it's taking far longer than expected - we are making definite progress also - as well as many alternative ideas of ways of doing it such as the Polywell - might get it within a decade from those ideas - or the other way - maybe instead of 50 years - if we are being over optimistic there - it takes 100 years or 200 years - but surely some time in less than a thousand years we will have it. That's only a blink of time for the timescales we are talking about here.
And - we might be able to do all those things over as short a timescale as a few decades if technology moves forward particularly quickly.
HUMANS FILLING THE GALAXY - EACH WITH THE POWER TO RESHAPE IT WITH SELF REPLICATORS
Now - add to that - that if we colonize the galaxy - then that means - you would have three hundred billion stars each with many trillions of colonists.
So, within a timescale that is just a blink in geological time, you have hundreds of billions of trillions of colonists - each of those with the power to reshape the entire galaxy by unleashing self replicating machines to fulfill their purposes. Many evolved to new species by then also - especially if they use genetic adaptation and accelerated evolution.
And - that - go a few generations down from the initial settlers - and their purposes may be totally obscure,
FACED WITH SELF DESTRUCTION
An ET, or we ourselves, can look at this, and as you think though the implications
And - then you realise - that in the worst case - the ET destroys itself as well as all the other ETs if it colonizes the galaxy. because the colonizers, a short way down the line, are no longer their species, ae cyborgs, or created species, or rapidly evolved, or machines created by them that run amok, or beings that will become the alien monsters for them of their invasion thrillers
COMMUNICATION DELAYS
And also add - that it can take a hundred thousands years to send a message from one side of the galaxy to another. So if, for instance - a spreading wave of different ideas for reshaping the galaxy causes problems when they interact with each other - then - the galaxy has probably already gone belly-up before the originators get a chance to talk to each other.
To take an example, if someone has set off a "turn galaxy into paperclips" wave of self replicators - then ETs who encounter this at once side of the galaxy will not be able to learn the lessons learnt by the ETs who encountered another frontier on the other side of the galaxy for tens of thousands of years. It may be next to impossible to take coordinated action to deal with some threat to the galaxy, either for a single species, or many species or colonists working together.
IS THIS A SAFE GALAXY TO LIVE IN - FOR US OR OTHER ETS?
Looking into that possible future - you might then think - is this a safe and a good future for the galaxy? Is it going to be a good direction to take for other ETs and lifeforms in the galaxy? Is it going to be a good future for ourselves?
Would these future humans and human creations and species evolved from humans all have peaceful and beneficial intentions, and if they did - would they have the wisdom needed as well - and would they co-exist in harmony, would they come to a shared understanding of how to shape the galaxy?
You might well hesitate at that point.
TIPPING POINT COMES SURPRISINGLY EARLY ON
And - there is a tipping point here, which comes really early on - not thousands of years into the future when someone tries to establish a galactic empire.
As soon as you start up a single independent colony that is not dependent on our solar system - e.g. an Oort cloud colony that relies on fusion power instead of our sun - or a colony around another star - then - unless you have already taken careful precuations to prevent it - it is almost impossible to prevent future colonization of the entire galaxy.
Even a relatively benign independent colony in the Oort cloud - just spreading out using more and more comets - on the timescale of years and decades seems nothing is happening much. But Oort clouds of neighbouring stars mix. And - it is a case of initially unlimited and approximately exponential growth, however slow the exponential, and doubling time - even if it is decades or a century or two - still - it will have one.
You'd have a few decades perhaps where there is a chance of doing something about it - but not easy to get the political will and the unified decision making to carry it through.
Then - once they get to other star systems - and light speed delays - hardly likely you could get things organized to stop the process - even getting representatives of all the different political groups together to discuss things might be practically impossible.
UNSTOPPABLE WAVE
So, over timescales of millions of years, the unstoppable wave of human occupied habitats constructed from resources mined from comets would fill the entire galaxy.
Even selfish ETs out to get the galaxy for themselves - unless also very short sighted - will not want to destroy themselves in this way and create something that will come back and destroy them some day down the road.
Also, ETs don't have to be selfish. Unlike animals, we are thinking creatures and can make decisions e.g. quarantine rules etc.
So, what would ETs do, once they stop and think through these questions?
SENSIBLE, FORWARD LOOKING ETS
Quite possibly - in my view -most ETs who are sensible and forward looking, look at this situation - and decide, that they are not sure that their progeny and their creations would be, on the whole, beneficial for the galaxy or themselves, in the long term.
They, obviously, won't have colonized the galaxy.
ETS WHO ACT BEFORE THEY THINK, AND SEE IT AS A WONDERFUL OPPORTUNITY TO TAKE OVER THE GALAXY
And - the ETs who look at this situation and just think "great, nobody seems to have colonized the galaxy - this is our chance, let's sieze the moment and not think about consequences" - anyone reckless enough to think like that has probably destroyed themselves long before they got to the stage where they start off creating their first interstellar colony. At least - most likely they have destroyed all their space colonies before then.
FRAGILE STEPS TOWARDS SPACE COLONIES - THAT COULD DESTROY RECKLESS ETS LONG BEFORE THEY CAN ATTEMPT GALAXY COLONIZATION
I say that because - there are many fragile steps between here and then. Some we have already passed through such as nuclear weapons, and biological warfare (which could create biological agents able to make us extinct), and widespread extinction of species (we have taken many measures to reduce the rate of extinction and safeguard important crops etc) and so on.
There are likely to be many future issues like this for space colonies.
For instance - that space colonies would be immensely powerful but also immensely fragile, ability to destroy each other just by diverting the path of an asteroid or a few tons of mining materials at the kms per second of interplanetary flight.
Also economically - if it is just a free for all out there - then chances are that we would suffer back here on Earth - long before the colonies could get independent of Earth - and the resulting economic crisis long term would destroy economies on Earth and halt colonization in its tracks.
And - many things we could develop that are dangerous. For instance - self replicating nano technology - that by itself could easily be dangerous enough to destroy space colonies. Or - ability to change the path of asteroids so that they can't harm the Earth - in the wrong hands - could become a weapon that means nobody is safe.
PROMISING SIGNS THAT WE JUST POSSIBLY MAY MAKE IT
Now we've already come through a few - such as atomic warfare, biological weapons, chemical weapons, ozone layer, DDT, the prospect of mass famine solved by the green revolution etc etc. So - I think that proves that - as a species, if not individually - we are at least moderately wise and far seeing, if not hugely so.
Somehow - with many mistakes, and not in a particularly planned way - we do seem to muddle through many disasters - neither doing particularly well - making many mistakes - but also somehow, so far, avoiding the very worst of the disasters - at least to some extent.
So - I think we do have a chance of not destroying ourselves.
IF SO - WE MAY NUMBER AMONGST THE NON SELF DESTRUCTIVE - FORWARD THINKING SENSIBLE ETS
But if so that probably puts us into the second category of ETs that would decide, eventually - that on balance - the galaxy may be better off without them, or at least - I mean - not without any humans at all - but - with most of the humans in our original solar system - and a few adventurous explorers and scientists - and unmanned probes - exploring the rest of the galaxy.
And that might become something that is so widely accepted that it becomes unthinkable to start up a colony outside of the solar system.
You would only do that, perhaps, if the solar system itself becomes uninhabitable - which with the level of technology talking about here - probably won't happen at all, not for trillions of years - could survive easily right through red giant and into white dwarf phase just using free space habitats.
Or perhaps we might move solar system when the sun goes red giant - but just to one new solar system not spread through the galaxy, but move everyone, leaving the old one empty - like nomads moving their tent encampments.
HOW OUR ATTITUDES MIGHT CHANGE SO THIS HAPPENS
How that happens - I don't know for sure. But might just be through talking through the ideas - raising this very question, just as I'm doing here - and nobody comes up with answers to it, and after some decades or centuries it just becomes accepted that there is no answer.
Or - it might be that as our telescopes get better we can see other galaxies and find some distant galaxy where this went wrong, an object lesson that has been taken to heart by all ETs in our galaxy.
Or might be that there is an ET in our galaxy - billions of years old - that has set up automated listening posts and warns us if we start to attempt to colonize the galaxy.
WHAT IF WE ARE FIRST ET IN OUR GALAXY
Or might be that we are the very first ET to evolve in our galaxy. There are some quite reasonable arguments that lead to that conclusion - it's not as unlikely as some might think. For instance - if each of the steps of evolution is far harder than we think - we might, by chance - be the only ET that has gone through all of them by now. In that situation - apparently - if you work through the probabilities - you find out - that you will see the various phases of evolution roughly evenly spaced - not because they are easy - but because the only way to have got this far in evolution so quickly is if by chance you happen to live on a planet where all of those steps went through quickly.
If so we have a huge responsibility. If lucky might be able to learn from ETs in other more distant galaxies as our technology improves - or might just be on our own and have to work through all these issues for ourselves, for the first time.
It could be that we are the "ur ancestor" ETs of our galaxy - the ones that younger ETs billions of years from now will discover as ancient cities and relics and barely understood machines littering the galaxy. If so, we have a huge responsibility to the future of - ourselves and all other ETs in the galaxy.
CARE NEEDED BEFORE STEPPING OUT TO OTHER STARS
Either way - I think we need to take great care before we set up any habitats in space that have the capability of either interstellar flight to set up colonies around other stars - or capability of sustaining themselves in free space without use of our sun as an energy source.
Other ETs may all come ot the same conclusion.
And the few that may be able to colonize the galaxy safely even so - if they exist - peaceful, powerful, wise, probably ultra long lived races by then - with stable populations and no population growth pressure and all their purely technological problems solved - they may well choose not to do so anyway, at least feel under no pressure to do so - no particular surprise that they are not here yet.
We might be due a visit from them some time in the next few millennia when they notice our activities - that is if they exist at all.
Or - perhaps after a few more millennia or a million years or so of development and evolution or whatever, - or maybe more quickly - we might become those ETs ourselves.
See also my science blog posts:
"WHAT SIZE OF NEOs ARE DANGEROUS?...(more)
"WHAT SIZE OF NEOs ARE DANGEROUS?
The Earth’s atmosphere protects us from most NEOs smaller than a modest office building (40 m diameter, or impact energy of about 3 megatons). From this size up to about 1 km diameter, an impacting NEO can do tremendous damage on a local scale. Above an energy of a million megatons (diameter about 2 km), an impact will produce severe environmental damage on a global scale. The probable consequence would be an “impact winter” with loss of crops worldwide and subsequent starvation and disease. Still larger impacts can cause mass extinctions, like the one that ended the age of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago (15 km diameter and about 100 million megatons)."
It burns a mixture of hydrogen and oxygen, but in the early stages it gets the oxygen from the atmosphere. It does that by a remarkable system that cools down the incoming air by 140C in a hundredth of a second, so can take in the air and still use lightweight materials.Artist's concept of it taking off into orbit
Far easier to do this than to build colonies in space - and create livelihoods and food for far more people for same cost.From an engineering point of view, then if you are set on going into space - then Venus cloud colonies may be the easiest to build - certainly least mass per colonist - and no need for radiation shielding
Why are we thinking about a Mars colony when a Venus colony would be more technically feasible? It seems that radiation shielded floating colonies could be assembled on Venus, with plastic film and aluminum wire bags, filled with breathable air.
Actually I'm not sure if a base on the Moon or "hovering" in the L1 or L2 positions is better - depends on how human body reacts to lunar gravity for a long term stay - which is unkown.
If we need ...
(more)Actually I'm not sure if a base on the Moon or "hovering" in the L1 or L2 positions is better - depends on how human body reacts to lunar gravity for a long term stay - which is unkown.
If we need artificial gravity - that might be easier to achieve in orbit with a tether system. Though if we just need, say an hour or so of gravity a day and can do that in a short arm centrifuge then surface could be fine.
If we do need full g or close to it 24/7 then the best solution for the Moon involves things such as a habitat permanently driving around a circular track on the moon to generate artificial gravity - or a spinning habitat - depending on what radius and spin rate humans can tolerate. Those may be practical - but it might be easier to use a tether system in space if that's what we need to do.
And in both cases I think we will spend most of our time inside the habitats shielded from cosmic radiation. Because - who wants to add even a 1% or 10% chance of getting cancer in your lifetime - when the cancer would reduce your lifespan typically by a decade or so? And spacesuits and lunar rovers can't be shielded to prevent that risk at least with present day technology. And spacesuits are clumsy, and though both telerobots and spacesuits increase in capability I think telerobots will have the edge on the Moon in the near future, maybe even already. For instance if Apollo 17 used present day telerobots - they wouldn't have been limited for safety reasons to within a walking distance of the lunar base - and could have spent far more than the 7 hours spread over 3 days on exploring the Moon. And the Apollo astronauts had a fair bit of trouble doing simple tasks such as picking things up from the surface - telerobots might well do these better than humans in spacesuits.
Anyway - doesn't make much difference, both ways are many exciting possibilities.
Of those, personally I think the search for ancient Earth life on the Moon is the most exciting in its potential implications. With - far side radio telescopes - another very exciting possibility.
For more on this, see my new Case For Moon - Open Ended Positive Future For Humans Based On Planetary Protection - Executive Summary
and in much more detail:
Classic scene from Star Trek IV "The Voyage Home" about Transparent Aluminum - sadly we don't have anything like this to build our windows of our space habitats yet.
A very large field, perhaps half a kilometer in diameter or more, if fully lit up with artificial light equivalent to the sun, on the Moon, would be as bright as a sixth magnitude star. This is a photo I took myself, so copyright Robert Walker.That is - unless they optimized the light for vegetation so that it supplies almost no green light, then the plants might look much darker.
It is of the corner of a field in the Scottish Borders - not sure of its acerage.
Olympic Super-G - sadly you couldn't see a Super G ski slope on the Moon - unless lunar slalom ski slopes are ten times wider or longer than on Earth.Also that assumes they are lit at similar levels to full sunlight. But they would probably be lit at much lower light levels than that, at night.
"To start with, theoretical physicist Stephen Hawking calculated all black holes should lose mass over time, giving it off as so-called Hawking radiation. Tiny black holes should shrink via such evaporation faster than they grow by gobbling up matter, dying within a fraction of a second, before they could engorge on any significant amount of matter.
Even if one assumes Hawking is wrong and that black holes are more stable than that, the tiny black holes would pose no danger. Because the microscopic black holes would be created within a particle accelerator, they should keep enough speed to escape from Earth's gravity. Moreover, if any get trapped, they are so tiny it would take each one more than the current age of the universe to destroy even a milligram of Earth matter."
300 meter diameter NEO - large enough for cosmic radiation shielding for 2.5 square kilometers of surface living area in a Stanford Torus
TO MARS ORBIT
Yes, I think so - to orbit anyway - maybe not to the surface. I think the thing that would really spur interest in Mars would be if ExoMars or one of our landers finds life on Mars and...
(more)TO MARS ORBIT
Yes, I think so - to orbit anyway - maybe not to the surface. I think the thing that would really spur interest in Mars would be if ExoMars or one of our landers finds life on Mars and if that life is interestingly different from Earth life.
That would be of huge interest - not just to colonization enthusiasts - but also for medicine, nanotech - and think how much of our lives depends on products created by life processes. The payback from studying a fundamentally different form of life could be immense - easily offset cost of a human mission to Mars orbit.
You wouldn't land because landing would contaminate Mars and destroy much of the interest of it for life studies, biology etc. But if you are in a close up orbit around Mars then you can drive telerobots on the surface and it is in many ways better than being there in person - no need to wear spacesuits - automatically enhanced vision - and everything you see and do on Mars automatically streamed, HD stereo surely - back to Earth for us to enjoy as well - as that is how you see Mars yourself.
Would be like using the Oculus rift, and the virtuix omni - but on a real planet, Mars, instead of a virtual world.
And - the evidence so far is quite in favour of finding life on Mars - past life especially - and if there was life on the planet in the past, hard to see it becoming extinct if it got anywhere as far as evolution on the Earth - so should still be there today and are habitats on the surface where it could be living, mostly in low concentrations of just a few microbes probably mainly hidden beneath the surface, possibly some more complex lichen like plants - may not seem that exciting - but it could be
Of all those last is the least interesting - but is also, most would say, least likely because there has been little contact between the planets for billions of years, some possibility of very occasional (perhaps every few tens of millions of years) transfer of some remarkable species on meteorites but not even that known for sure.
If it was any of the others - the effect for understanding of biology and potential new applications also - would be vast, pretty much unlimited. Even based on hard nosed economics, it would be well worth the punt to find out.
TO THE MARS SURFACE
Depends what happens I think in some scenarios, it might never happen.
One thing we might discover on Mars is life that is based on a fundamentally different biochemistry. Could be XNA - not based on DNA. Could be earlier forms of life, smaller than any known microbe on the Earth. Could be different in more subtle ways - unusual biochemistry, different pigments for photosynthesis - more resistant to cosmic radiation, ultraviolet and vacuum conditions than the equivalent forms on Earth.
Also we might find there is no life on Mars - habitats - but no life in them. That's also valuable to study - because of similarity to Earth - so you can see what the effect is of life - by studying a planet without life. Also makes it far easier to study traces of past life on Mars - without interference of the biproducts of present day life.
Those things might all make Mars more valuable to us uninhabited than as a colony - especially since it's not actually that good a place for humans to live - and since - we also have options to build habitats in free space which have many advantages.
It's a decision we'll make at some point in the future. But at present I'd say we don't know enough about Mars to make that decision - especially since it is also an irreversible one. Problem is - if you introduce lifeforms to a planet - even microbial life - that's never been on that planet before - and it starts to reproduce - and if there is some way of spreading it globally (on Mars you have the atmosphere and the dust storms) - then you can never reverse that with present day technology at least.
If that happens - then we might still colonize the Moon or space. But personally - I think no great hurry to colonize .Explore yes. Humans can be valuable explorers of the solar system. But it's like Antarctica - it's not a desirable place for humans to live without a huge amount of work - I think for a long time we'll go to space for other reasons, not to colonize.
Certainly no "little house in the Prairie" type colonization - nowhere in space that humans could live without technology - if anything happens to your habitat, you are dead - no future in trying to escape from it into the vacuum of space that surrounds you in all directions. And in most locations in space you need hugely expensive massively constructed houses that can withstand tons of pressure per square meter and are covered with several meters of cosmic radiation shielding.
Only way around that, that I can see - which we might do some day are
Of those three - the free space habitats are relevant to Mars - you could live in big habitats that are in orbit around Mars - and long term - as artificial gravity - ideal conditions - might be low maintenance if big enough - then - might be practical to live in those long term - and then could explore the surface of Mars via telepresence.
As for terraforming Mars - that's a centuries long high technology project if possible at all, which nobody knows. Far easier to build a Stanford torus in space - you can do that in decades - not thousands of years - and would cost far less also of course.
Living underground on Mars - is a possibility - but - then you have the big issue of contamination of Mars with Earth life. I know it never gets mentioned in the Mars colonization news stories - but if the time comes that someone has to work out detailed plans and proposals and explain how they will keep Mars free of contamination (as required under international law) - I think will turn out to be a major issue that simply can't be solved to sufficient confidence with present technology within the limits of what we currently know about Mars.
Also nobody knows if humans can survive long term in Mars gravity. Life evolved in full gravity and there are many changes in the body in low g which ARE NOT EVOLVED ADAPATATIONS TO ZERO G - but are just the body not functioning right in zero g, things just going wrong because it's not adapted to zero g.
When the first humans went into space in the 1960s nobody knew if we could survive as long as an hour in zero g. Is now known we can survive months and a few Russian cosmonauts have lived for well over a year in zero g (so far no American astronaut has yet spent a year in zero g). But it's unknown whether or not a human can survive two years in zero g.
There is similar uncertainty about Mars g. When you hear Mars colonization enthusiasts saying that humans in Mars g would adapt to be healthy in Mars conditions - that is just hopeful thinking at present, with no scientific evidence to back it up. Human body is far too complex to simulate - and the experiment has never been done.
If you ask me to guess the future, project as best I can from present day knowledge - say - 50 to 100 years from now - I would see - perhaps human settlements around Mars - mainly there for study of the planet - a bit like the settlements in Antarctica - and tourist settlements on the Moon - or in orbit around it - and around Earth - and could well be similar interplanetary scientific explorations of the rest of the solar system. Just possibly might have cloud colonies in Venus.
But if there are any attempts to colonize - without any other reason to be there except just to colonize - I expect those attempts to fail simply because nobody will want to keep paying the billions of dollars a year needed.
Because any attempt at a colony - think of something like the ISS - not something like a log cabin in the woods - huge expensive thing that needs to be supplied frequently from Earth, massively engineered - and the modules need to be replaced every few decades. It's just not going to be worth it for an ordinary house dweller.
That is, except for the really big super- habitats like Stanford Torus could make it worth while if you can find a way to fund them - and they can be sufficiently low maintenance. Original Stanford Torus idea was to have 10,000 people in space there making solar power satellites and that's how they would pay for themselves, beaming energy back to Earth. Not sure that would work today - but you need something like that to pay for it.
If there was some big project to build them - could have a viable Stanford Torus or Venus "Cloud Nine" - indeed if the US had decided to build the Stanford Torus in the 1970s - which it could have - within e.g. its Defense budget though far more expensive than Apollo - we could have it there already - and might also have prevented the energy crisis and global warming by beaming solar power to Earth equal to all our power needs - if the Stanford academics who worked out the plan got the design details right.
See also my Case For Moon First
First thing to say - the movies tend to focus on big civilization threatening impacts. But they only come every few tens of millions of years on average. That's a long time. And they would not wipe...
(more)First thing to say - the movies tend to focus on big civilization threatening impacts. But they only come every few tens of millions of years on average. That's a long time. And they would not wipe out humanity - in this the movies just get it wrong, they are nowhere near big enough for this.
There were big asteroids big enough to wipe out humanity in the early solar system, and we see their scars on the Moon as the largest craters and the lunar seas. But though there are plenty of objects that big in the solar system they are in more or less stable orbits now or so far from the sun that there is almost zero chance of anything like that now, as you can see from the absence of any really large craters in the geological record of Earth, the Moon, Mars or Mercury in the near past. The larger craters are all overlaid by numerous smaller craters and so are obviously ancient.
You'd expect something civilization threatening (not extinction causing) only every few hundreds of thousands of generations of humans.
As for extinction causing impacts, it's not even on our list of possibilities.
And - it's a probability thing of course - but you'd expect many far smaller impacts, large enough to cause huge tsunamis and destroy cities - but not civilization threatening - first. And they are small enough to divert given enough warning. That's mainly what the SpaceGuard programs are looking for - or at least - most expect to find.
So for instance, a 1 km size asteroid - a major disaster of course - worse than any disaster in the last century - but still - too small to really be civilization threatening and far too small to be extinction causing, would hit us every 44,000 years or so, roughly every 100,000 human generations.
The Space Guard program is of course looking for those also, on the remote chance that one of them is headed our way in the near future, but they are mainly concerned about smaller impactors than that, of the tens or hundreds of meters scale. The larger 1 km sized or larger objects could also be diverted given enough time with a steady push over a long period of time, with various ways to do it.
Impact event - frequency and risk
WHO WOULD SPOT THEM
It simply couldn't be concealed if they tried. Small even km scale objects yes, our map is pretty good but not complete yet.
But you are talking about hundreds or thousands of kilometer scale objects, similar to a medium to large sized asteroid. Those couldn't be missed.
Amateur astronomers - some with very large telescopes - could spot an incoming asteroid or comet as large as that easily. .
Wouldn't need government programs. Indeed amateurs might be first to spot it, not impossible as astronomical observation is one of the few areas of science where amateurs do original basic research. The sky at high magnification through a telescope such as many amateurs have is just so vast that the big professional telescopes can't hope to cover it all - so they rely on amateurs to fill the gaps.
Then, they'd share the news and compare notes - from many different countries world wide.
Nothing the governments could do - internet, telephones, letters, people traveling, one way or another they'd share the news.
MORE THAN TWO MONTHS WARNING
And for something as major as that - you'd have six months of warning at least even for a ten kilometer asteroid - we know all the ten kilometer asteroids inside of Jupiter's orbit. As for a hundred or thousand kilometer asteroid - we would spot it easily - out probably as far as Neptune, as we spot hundred kilometer scale objects beyond Neptune's orbit at 30 au nowadays. List of known trans-Neptunian objects. If bright, we spot even smaller ones out to that distance, here is 58534 Logos which is only 77 km in diameter and its perihelion is 39.675 AU, well beyond Neptune.
Any asteroid with aphelion beyond Neptune has to have a semi major axis at least half that of Neptune, at least 15 au, so must have orbital period of more than 58 years (by this calculator: Orbital period of a planet ) - 58534 Logos has an orbital period of 302.8 years - so if there was a hundred kilometer asteroid headed towards the inner solar system we'd discover it several decades before it got here.
But - again the cratering record shows - that that just isn't happening in our present solar system. Rare enough at least so that if it does happen, chance of hitting any planet is too minute to be significant.
So really more like smaller asteroids, say of the ten kilometer or scale. Small enough to be civilization threatening - but survivable with technology at least by some humans.
And on Earth also - no need to go into space, best place to ride it out is here where you have more resources to hand immediately after the disaster, a breathable air, water, reasonable temperature after the event, and you don't need a spaceship to return to Earth.
We'd probably have a year or more even in that case, even if on a cometary path direct to the sun - if it's as big as that.
After all we know about new first time comets entering our inner solar system well in advance - and they are far smaller than this.
NOT REMOTELY LIKELY FOR HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF YEARS
Actually this is not likely to happen for a few hundred million years. There's a chance that Mercury might be disturbed from its orbit and hit the Earth - very low probability - through repeated resonance with Jupiter.
Mercury (planet), diameter of just under 5000 km - it would cause human extinction if it hit Earth (unless we have people in space), probably melt our crust, like the impact that created the Moon. There is a tiny probability that it could hit the Earth hundreds of millions of years into the future, see Stability of the Solar System
But not for hundreds of millions of years yet.
Also we can tell by looking at impact craters on the Moon and on Mars also on Earth - nothing that big has hit any of them, or any of the other planets, since the very early days of the solar system, first few hundred million years, in the late heavy bombardment.
The big lunar seas and the very largest craters on the Moon - the largest ones, perhaps large enough to cause extinction of humans if they hit the Earth- these date from the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La... which ended approximately 3.8 billion years ago.
We no longer get impacts that big - next likely chance of something like that - and probability low - is if Mercury gets disturbed from its orbit - or something cosmic such as another star passing close to our sun and disturbing the orbits of our planets - if that happens - it's many millions of years into our future.
WHAT COULD HAPPEN
What we could get is something like the impact that brought an end to the dinosaurs. A giant meteorite ten kilometers across, or a few tens of kilometers across.
That probably created a fire storm over the Earth for a short time at moment of impact, burnt all the vegetation - and followed by dense ash clouds cutting out light from the sun.
Many species went extinct then, for sure. But they didn't have our technology.
After an impact like that, there would be some humans survive the initial impact, e.g. in submarines or deep underground.
With as little as a few months warning we could make sure that some humans survive in underground and under sea shelters - and we would know which side of the Earth the impact would be - and which would be the safest places - and doubtless move the world population to the other side of the Earth (except for a few unwilling or can't be moved) - and do our best to shelter them also.
Something like this could survive deep under the sea and surface after the disaster.
A modern nuclear submarine can go to a depth of 1,600 feet where they'd survive almost anything happening on the surface. Submarine depth ratings
We wouldn't go extinct, I can't see that happening because of a meteorite impact.
And in any case, you are talking about something so unlikely - we'd be better off paying more attention to things that could happen - like Tsunami causing small impacts with objects a few hundred meters perhaps up to 1 km across - and to detect those as much as we possibly can - which we are already doing - and those surely can be diverted.
WHAT IF SOME FUTURE CIVILIZATION DOES NEED TO DIVERT MERCURY OR A HUNDREDS OR THOUSANDS OF KMS SCALE ASTEROID?
Diverting a 1000 km diameter asteroid would be very hard - and e.g. preventing Mercury from hitting Earth if that's what is predicted when the time comes a few hundred million years into the future - that would be hard.
But we'd know about it long in advance. With future technology, and complete survey of our solar system out to the Oort cloud - surely thousands, or millions of years in advance. And if we had a long lived stable civilization by then - able to do projects lasting for millennia and millions of years - they might be able to do something about that also.
But it's not our priority right now. And in very remote chance that we do see something that big and it's headed for Earth - even with our present day technology and amateur telescopes, we'd know months or years in advance and could find a way for a few people at least to survive on the Earth. So is time enough to start thinking about that if it ever happens, which is not likely.
And the governments of the time would just have to live with and deal with the situation that everyone knows about it. Nothing they can do about that.
Except of course - e.g. if a totalitarian government controlling all its news, restricting internet access, monitoring all phone calls, and opening all letters to its citizens - if it was as controlling as that - perhaps it could keep its own citizens in the dark - but so long as they have internet connection or telephone or free to travel, or able to read uncensored letters, or anything like that - then some of their citizens would learn about it and it just couldn't be contained after that.
In any case, the Earth's oceans might well boil before then, from the gradually warming sun - hundreds of millions of years into the future again. Also, bear in mind that it took 500 million years for humans to evolve from the first multi-cellular cell. Some microbe just starting on the steps to microcellularity has plenty of time to evolve to humans again or our equivalent before it is likely to happen. So, I think there are many things to be concerned about, but this is not one to put on our list of priorities.
GLOBAL WARMING
Human caused global warming in near term also can't get close to extinction causing for humans - worst temperature rise projection is something like 5C for 2100 - major humanitarian disaster, starvation, famine, instability - quite possibly collapse of governments - if all that happened - but not extinction of humans - that's just pure sci. fi.
Recent estimate, the runaway greenhouse effect to make Earth into a planet like Venus, for the temperature to keep going up, runaway effect, we'd need to burn at least ten times the amount of fossil fuel available in all known reserves on the Earth - Will Earth's Ocean Boil Away?
MAIN PROBLEMS TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT, OURSELVES
I think our main problems are ourselves. Especially things like biotech, nanotech, and increasing military capabilities and what those might do in long term future.
That's also the conclusion, for instance of an article for the Lifeboat Foundation - Safeguarding Humanity
See also Risking human extinction for an interesting perspective on this (I don't necessarily agree with the author, but it gets you thinking).
Which also means we have the capabilities to deal with them also - since we are the problem then we have to work on ourselves to find a solution.
Things like, for instance, taking great care and being serious about investigating any existential (extinction causing) risks of future technology as we develop it.
In the present I think one of the areas where we have to be very careful is in the study of XNA and creating of novel lifeforms in the laboratory. That's not just genetic modification - that also I think has to be done with care - not total prohibition, these technologies have a lot of potential to benefit humanity also and may be part of the solution to our problems - but responsibly, to investigate carefully and thoroughly.
But even more so - creating new forms of biochemistry in the laboratory - I think that needs great care. As do at least some of the researchers in the field.
But as for asteroid impacts - I think - not extinction causing threats to be concerned about - though definitely need to keep an eye on them.
Especially, should continue to search for the smaller impacts up to about one or two km or so diameter especially. And in process of searching for those, we would of course spot larger 10 km scale ones also in the very remote chance that any are headed our way.
From the cratering record, I'd be utterly astonished if we find any hundreds of kms or thousands of km size asteroid heading our way sooner than millions, probably hundreds of millions of years into the future.
UPDATE: WHAT ABOUT BIG ASTEROIDS LIKE CERES, VESTA, PALLAS ETC
Yes any of those would melt the crust and boil the oceans dry. Perhaps a few microbes would survive in the debris thrown into space to reestablish life on Earth when it cools down, but that would be about it.
But these big asteroids are all in a stable orbits, at least for millions of years.. Vesta, say, is no more going to hit Earth than Mercury or Mars.
And we can tell from the cratering record that nothing much larger than about 10 km has hit the inner solar system over the last three billion years - not on Mars, Earth, what we have of the history of Venus, Mercury, or the moons of Mars and our Moon. They all have big craters on them large enough to have made us extinct, but they are all well over three billion years old.
The reason seems to be due to Jupiter which catches, breaks up or diverts larger comets as they come into the inner solar system. And as for the ones already there, this did happen in the early solar system, but they are now in long term stable orbits and nothing like this has happened for billions of years.
For more about this see my Giant Asteroid Headed Your Way? - How We Can Detect And Deflect Them
Which is also available as a kindle booklet:
Giant Asteroid Is Headed Your Way? : How We Can Detect and Deflect Them (Amazon)
We see these nanobes in electron microscope images. Nobody knows for sure what they are- life - or inorganic processes. They are too small for modern life machinery to fit within them. If ETs had nanobe scale tiny machines, camouflaged to resemble nanobes - then even in an electron microscope, we wouldn't notice them as anything unusual.
Article VI
States Parties to the Treaty shall bear international responsibility for national activities in outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, whether such activities are carried on by governmental agencies or by non-governmental entities, and for assuring that national activities are carried out in conformity with the provisions set forth in the present Treaty.
The activities of non-governmental entities in outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, shall require authorization and continuing supervision by the appropriate State Party to the Treaty.
When activities are carried on in outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, by an international organization, responsibility for compliance with this Treaty shall be borne both by the international organization and by the States Parties to the Treaty participating in such organization.
So, for instance, however SpaceX gets into space, the United States government is responsible for authorizing and supervising their activties in space to make sure that they comply with the OST.
Article IX
In the exploration and use of outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, States Parties to the Treaty shall be guided by the principle of co-operation and mutual assistance and shall conduct all their activities in outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, with due regard to the corresponding interests of all other States Parties to the Treaty.
States Parties to the Treaty shall pursue studies of outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, and conduct exploration of them so as to avoid their harmful contamination and also adverse changes in the environment of the Earth resulting from the introduction of extraterrestrial matter and, where necessary, shall adopt appropriate measures for this purpose.
If a State Party to the Treaty has reason to believe that an activity or experiment planned by it or its nationals in outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, would cause potentially harmful interference with activities of other States Parties in the peaceful exploration and use of outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, it shall undertake appropriate international consultations before proceeding with any such activity or experiment.
A State Party to the Treaty which has reason to believe that an activity or experiment planned by another State Party in outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, would cause potentially harmful interference with activities in the peaceful exploration and use of outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, may request consultation concerning the activity or experiment.
Outer Space Treaty
Note, this answer runs to an estimated 46 printed pages. You can now get it as a kindle book, if you prefer,.Maths From an Extra Terrestrial Civilization: What Could It Be Like
Ingenious maybe, beautiful even if you like such things - but why go to all that trouble to peel the potatoes?
Techy detail for logicians: - you can avoid the paradox, technically, with a "second order" formal language with uncountably many distinct symbols. Which doesn't really solve the philosophical issue of course.
Any human or ET mathematician will only be able to distinguish a (small) finite number of symbols from each other. It's a general issue for any higher-order logic - it needs a proof theory before mathematicians can use it in practice - and when you do that, the paradox surfaces again. Second-order logic - metalogical results
Howard Rheingold painted Shoes (photo by Hoi Ito)
When you have a mathematical equivalent of infinitely many pairs of shoes, there is no problem picking out one of each. It's easy, for instance, just choose the left one out of each pair.
But it gets far harder to cope with the mathematical equivalents of infinitely many pairs of socks.
That's because they are identical to each other (you can swap your left and right socks and not notice that anything has changed). Our maths doesn't let us pick out one of each - unless we add in an extra axiom, the axiom of choice.
It seems an obvious axiom, innocuous even - that if you have infinitely many pairs, you can choose a singleton from each one. However, it turns out that if you add it in, this leads - not to inconsistencies quite - but to results so strange that they seem paradoxical to human minds.
For instance, one of many famous puzzling consequences - it lets you split a sphere into a small number of geometrical "pieces" - and combine them together to make two spheres of same volume as the original - without any gaps.
Banach–Tarski paradox
If you accept it, you end up with maths that is more powerful - but let's you prove these unintuitive results such as, that it's possible to dissect a sphere geometrically into a small number of "pieces" (discontinuous but "rigid") and re-assemble it to make two spheres of the same volume, without gaps.
As another example - it lets you fill 3D space entirely with radius 1 circles - with none of them intersecting, yet no gaps, a sort of 3D space filling chain mail. Again most would find that paradoxical...
When you invent a radically new axiom system - it's not enough to create axioms that look good and work well together, because that could take you straight to a paradox as happened to Frege. The system could seem perfect to your mathematical intuitions, but that is not enough. You have to go one step further - usually - by proving relative consistency with ZF or some other established theory.
By Gödel's theorem you know that you can't prove that your new axiom system is consistent. But what you can do is to prove it is "as good as ZF". You can prove that if it did fail, that failure would bring down ZF as well - which is generally thought to be good enough to establish it as an okay theory as regards consistency.
'I daresay you haven't had much practice,' said the Queen. 'When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast'
Lewis Carroll - the White Queen in Through the Looking Glass.
I won't go into how it works (you can check out the (ε, δ)-definition of limit ) - but if you've done calculus rigorously, e.g. at university, you've probably seen this diagram.
It took a lot of effort by mathematicians before they had a reasonably rigorous way of doing calculus - and then even so, during the rest of the nineteenth century they found many "wild cases" bizarre things they found really hard to study - which lead eventually to Cantor's ideas and to the paradoxes we've already met, in the late C19 and early C20.
Details of Vopenka's ideas: He starts from a basic idea of a "semiset" which in some sense has no boundary to it, but lies within a set that in all other respects is a normal finite set. This idea may take some getting used to - but so did many of the ideas of the standard ZFC. Once you understand it, then it and the other axioms can stand alone as a theory in its own right. He proved that his theory is consistent if ZFC is. But if the ETs developed AST first, then they would do it the other way around and have AST as their pre-established theory thought to be consistent, and come to ZF later.
I don't want to go into too much detail here - I could write a whole article just about his ideas (it was my specialist topic for study at postgraduate level, groundwork for the research I was doing myself - for some years his book on AST was almost always by my side as I worked).
The main thing to be aware of is that it is not dependent on ZF like Robinson's theory. And there is no "star transform" to automatically and easily transform results about AST to identically formulated results in ZF and vice versa. AST requires everything to be built up again from scratch, unlike Robinson's work.
"Let us call a set "abnormal" if it is a member of itself, and "normal" otherwise. For example, take the set of all squares in the plane. That set is not itself a square, and therefore is not a member of the set of all squares. So it is "normal". On the other hand, if we take the complementary set that contains all non-squares, that set is itself not a square and so should be one of its own members. It is "abnormal".
Now we consider the set of all normal sets, R. Determining whether R is normal or abnormal is impossible: if R were a normal set, it would be contained in the set of normal sets (itself), and therefore be abnormal; and if R were abnormal, it would not be contained in the set of all normal sets (itself), and therefore be normal. This leads to the conclusion that R is neither normal nor abnormal: Russell's paradox."
Just as the second volume of his great work was going to press, then he got a letter from Bertrand Russell about his paradox.Gottlob Frege
"Your discovery of the contradiction caused me the greatest surprise,and, I would almost say, consternation, since it has shaken the basis on which I intended to build arithmetic"Why is it that if you just follow your nose and axiomatise everything carefuly - then you fall straight into Russell's paradox, as Frege did?
A colleague (Ivor Robinson) had been visiting from the USA and he was engaging me in voluble conversation on a quite different topic as we walked down the street approaching my office in Birkbeck College in London. The conversation stopped momentarily as we crossed a side road, and resumed again at the other side. Evidently, during those few moments, an idea occurred to me, but then the ensuing conversation blotted it from my mind!
Later in the day, after my colleague had left, I returned to my office. I remember having an odd feeling of elation that I could not account for. I began going through in my mind all the various things that had happened to me during the day, in an attempt to find what it was that had caused this elation. After eliminating numerous inadequate possibilities, I finally brought to mind the thought that I had had while crossing the street- a thought which had momentarily elated me by providing the solution to the problem that had been milling around at the back of my head! Apparently, it was the needed criterion that I subsequently called a ‘trapped surface’ and then it did not take me long to form the outline of a proof of the theorem that I had been looking for. Even so, it was some while before the proof was formulated in a completely rigorous way, but the idea that I had had while crossing the street had been the key.
The Emperor's New Mind
Perhaps an ET might draw something like this, show it to us and say "This is the maths we use for constructing our spaceships" - and expect us to understand at a glance - and have no other way of presenting their maths.
Jackson Pollock - biography, paintings, quotes of Jackson Pollock
"While asleep, I had an unusual experience. There was a red screen formed by flowing blood, as it were. I was observing it. Suddenly a hand began to write on the screen. I became all attention. That hand wrote a number of elliptic integrals. They stuck to my mind. As soon as I woke up, I committed them to writing."
Perhaps this also might give us an idea of what ET maths might be like if they depend on sudden insight and a high level of mathematical intuition, with only a small amount of deductive proof.
Page from the Ramanujan notebooks describing his "Master Theorem"
pdfs phtographs of his original notebooks at bottom of this page, and photocopy type scans here
So that's another possibility. ETs could make far more extensive use of discrete geometries, and might make hardly any use of continuous geometry.
Taxicab geometry - similar to routes traveled by taxis in modern grid network type cities. The three paths shown in red, blue and yellow are all the same length. Green path shows the distance in a continuous geometry.
At 1:45 "If you look inside a computer, you find an impressive assembly of basic mechanisms. Some of them are duplicated many times in one computer"If they have no idea of numbers - or numbers are very abstract concepts for them - then they could still have analogue computers like this, as the computers are based on direct analogue connections between things and don't need to use numbers as such.
Wikipedia article about it, range keeper.
Artist's impression of ancient ocean on Mars - this is actually a second ocean believed to have formed about a billion years after the first one - didn't last so long, first one lasted for hundreds of millions of years probably though it may have been covered at ice at times towards the end, best hypothesis is that it started off at hundreds of degrees C in dense CO2 atmosphere same as for Earth.
Eberwalde Delta
Here the blue regions of the Olympus Mons caldera are thought to be around 140 million years old - relatively recent. Other evidence also of geologically recent activity of Olympus Mons. See Timeline of Martian Volcanism and Lava flows at foot of Olympus Mons. No known present day geological hot spots or activity anywhere on Mars, but may get lucky and spot something. This is also relevant for search of life as it suggests possibility of geological hot spots - some possibly close to surface - which could melt ice and create habitats for life.
Volcanic cone in Nili Patera Caldera. Arrows point to light coloured hydrothermal vent deposits, which show that it must originally have been warm and wet (in first few hundred million years of Mars)
Close up image of a region of stratified clays in the Mawrth Vallis region of Mars
Only a micro black hole likely in near future. But the sun is a far bigger target for those than the Earth - and is also going to be easier for it to stop the black holes if going at speed.
So it's ...
(more)Only a micro black hole likely in near future. But the sun is a far bigger target for those than the Earth - and is also going to be easier for it to stop the black holes if going at speed.
So it's the sun you need to be concerned about if anything. We don't see stars blinking out in the sky - so micro black holes must be rare.
Summary for normal stellar mass black holes - This is just exceptionally unlikely. Theoretically it is possible but as far as worrying about it, forget about it.
The chances of getting closer than Neptune in any one million year period are
The chances of getting as close as Earth, hitting Earth or hitting the Sun are vanishingly small.
HOW MANY OF THEM ARE THERE WITHIN TWELVE LIGHT YEARS?
With The volume of the Milky Way, our galaxy, is roughly 8 trillion cubic light years, the calculations are simplified if we look at a volume of 8 thousand cubic light years, i.e. in a sphere of radius twelve light years.
Our galaxy has 400 billion stars (you get various estimates here, some say 100 billion, I’m going by the higher estimate) which makes it around 200 normal stars in that same 8,000 cubic light years. About one star in a thousand is a black hole. See Black Holes. So that same 8,000 cubic light years would have 0.2 black holes on average.
SO HOW LIKELY IS IT THAT A STAR DOES A FLYBY?
Stars, even though they are much more common, are also very unlikely to do close passes of the solar system. Never mind hitting the Earth, or the sun, they are extremely unlikely to get as close as Pluto. The closest flyby of a star in recent past is Scholtz's star, which passed 0.8 light years (around 9.6 light months) away 70,000 years ago. https://www.sciencedaily.com/rel...
By comparison Pluto is 5.5 light hours away. So - when a very rare close encounter may take a star 9-10 light months away - how likely is it that a star would pass as close as 5.5. light hours away? With neutron stars a thousand times less common than stars, how likely that a neutron star would come anywhere near our solar system?
To get close enough to pass between Earth and the Moon it would need to pass just one light second away. To hit Earth it would need to hit us accurately to the nearest 0.02 light seconds - within two hundredths of a light second. The sun’s diameter is 4.64 light seconds, so to hit the Sun it would need to get within a few light seconds of it.
I think you can see that all these things are so unlikely it will surely never happen.
IMPOSSIBILITY OF CAPTURE
It is just a single pass, because if any rogue planet, or neutron star, or black hole or anything were to pass through our solar system - it would be going too fast to do anything except just fly out again.
Capture into solar system orbit by Jupiter - tracing the path of Voyager 2 or Voyager 1 backwards - is so very improbable you can forget about it. It is easy for a solar system to eject a planet, and very hard for it to capture one. That’s a bit like the way it is easy for a cup to break but very hard for a cup to spontaneously assemble from the broken pieces on the floor.
Another analogy - it would be theoretically possible to drop a pin on a hard polished floor and for it to land point down balanced exactly. And if all the tiny drafts of air pushed in the right way to keep it balanced, it could stay balanced like that for an hour or more. It's possible but surely even with the thousands of pins dropped on polished floors, it's surely never happened in the history of humanity!
EXACT CALCULATION OF THE CHANCES
So now, what is the chance that Earth or the Sun is hit by a black hole, or that it comes into our solar system?
I’ve found a way to do an exact calculation
There's a formula, we can use here, from Perturbation of the Oort Cloud by Close Stellar Approaches. Our sun has approximately 4.2*D^2 encounters with other stars every million years.
There D is the diameter in parsecs of the spherical region around the star.
Neptune's semi major axis is 4.49506 billion kilometers so it's diameter is around 0.00029135 parsecs. So substituting that for D, every million years there is 1 chance in 2.8 million (calculated as 1/(4.2*0.0002913^2)) of a star passing closer to the sun than Neptune.
For black holes, then as only one star in a thousand forms a black hole, then that makes it once chance in 2.8 billion of a black hole coming closer than Neptune.
Now for the chance of a star hitting the Earth. Now D is 12,742 km, which is 4.129401e-10 parsecs. So now the calculation is one in 1/(4.2*(4.129401e-10)^2).
So the chance of a star hitting Earth in the next million years is about 1 in 1.3962931 * 10^18. Or about 1 in 1,400,000,000,000,000,000
We can also look at the chance of a star hitting the Sun. Now D is 1.3914 million km, or 4.5092203 × 10^-8 Parsecs 1/(4.2*(4.5092203e-8)^2) makes it 1 chance in 117,000,000,000,000.
Multiply those numbers by a thousand and to summarize, every million years there is a
So about one chance in 117,000,000 billion of it happening every million years. With 400 billion stars in the galaxy, we get one chance in 117,000,000/400 or about one chance in 300,000 that we get a collision between two stars somewhere in the galaxy every million years. With the galaxy 13.21 billion years old, then it may have happened 13,210/300,000 times or about 0.044 times since the galaxy formed, that a black hole has hit another star.
Those are averages though. The stars are much more densely packed in the center of the galaxy, so stellar collisions there should be more common. The galaxy also has a giant black hole in its core, and stars must collide with it quite often. I’ve also assumed that there is not enough gas or dust to cause significant drag on the approaching object. That’s true for our sun but not true for newly born stars or stars that hit the accretion disk of a black hole.
However, we orbit far from the galactic center, and are at no risk of collision, no more risk than Earth is at risk hitting the sun, because we orbit the galactic center in a long term stable orbit.
In the universe as a whole, there are so many stars that such collisions are common. Collisions of a neutron star with a black hole cause some of the enigmatic gamma ray bursts - the shorter ones.
Artist’s impression of a neutron star captured by a black hole. In a Flash NASA Helps Solve 35-year-old Cosmic Mystery
This is of no danger to Earth whatsoever
So not a big issue. As for the collision with the Andromeda galaxy, in collisions of two galaxies, stars are so far apart that the chance of the sun colliding with anything at all is minute, it’s similar to the chance of two stars hitting each other in our own galaxy.
Elon Musk has said several times that he doesn't think there will be anything material from Mars that would be worth transporting back to Earth.
(more)"I don't think it's going to be economical to mine th...
Elon Musk has said several times that he doesn't think there will be anything material from Mars that would be worth transporting back to Earth.
"I don't think it's going to be economical to mine things on Mars and then transport them back to Earth because the transport costs would overwhelm the value of whatever you mined, but there will likely be a lot of mining on Mars that's useful for a Mars base, but it's unlikely to be transferred back to Earth. I think the economic exchange between a Mars base and Earth would be mostly in the form of intellectual property"
Elon Musk interview on the future of energy and transport - and more quotes like this.
However he is skeptical about space mining generally thinking it probably won't be possible to export from the asteroids - "I'm not convinced there's a case for taking something, say, platinum, that is found in an asteroid and bringing it back to Earth." Of course many think that this will be possible. Myself I just don't know, I've heard the arguments on both sides and remain on the fence here.
But anyway, for Mars, let's look at this a bit more closely, is there anything physical that could be worth exporting, (apart from the science value for search for life and the information returned). I can't find much by way of papers on this. So, here are a few thoughts based on online discussions and just thinking it through:
However, the price would go down quickly as we get more samples from Mars of the order of tons of material. You'd only return as much as was needed for the scientific research you need to do due to the high price of return of material from Mars, once it becomes something you can do routinely.
Also, individuals might also want to buy Mars rocks, but only for as long as they are rare. This would be like supporting a lunar mission by returning and selling Moon rock. The first few rocks could be valuable to collectors, and if they were issued with a certificate of authenticity as the first rocks to be returned from Mars or the Moon maybe the first few rocks would retain their value. But longer term, how many people would want to buy into something of continually reducing value?
You'd think they must be rare or we would have spotted them on the surface. There's no sign at all of outcrops of oil shale. But on the other hand - cosmic radiation is very damaging. Would there be anything left of a surface oil shale deposit after billions of years?
It's an exponential process so you get very rapid reductions. Every 650 million years you get a 1000 fold reduction in the concentrations of small organic molecules such as amino acids on the surface because of cosmic radiation. So that's a million fold reduction every 1.3 billion years.
Cosmic radiation has little effect over time periods of years, decades, centuries or millennia. But over time periods of hundreds of millions of years the effects are huge. After 1.3 billion years, a thousand tons of amino acids gets reduced to a kilogram, with the rest converted mainly to gases like carbon dioxide, water vapour, methane and ammonia. After 2.6 billion years it's down to a microgram (millionth of a gram) and after 3.9 billion years you are down to less than a picogram (a millionth of a microgram) of your original thousand tons deposit.
So, I don't think absence of these deposits on the surface, at least not easy to see from satellites, really shows that they don't exist below the surface. There could be millions of tons of organics from past life ten meters below the surface, and our rovers so far would probably not spot a thing. The organics of course also have to be there in the first place (surely likely to be patchy, in some places more than in others) and buried quickly - if it took several hundred million years to bury them, much of the organics would be gone also.
Oil itself is surely not worth the trouble of mining to return to Earth. But if there was some unique biological product on Mars that we don't have on Earth - which you could mine to find there, maybe that could be worth returning to Earth.
Mars would be competitive with Earth for export of food due to the much lower launch cost. But what about greenhouses in space.
This would require it to be much easier to build a greenhouse on the surface than in space, otherwise you'd grow them in space. Since it's a near vacuum and also with the large diurnal swings in temperature, I'm not sure that it has much by way of advantages over, say, Phobos or Deimos, or indeed the Moon which has much less delta v than Mars. Even for Mars orbit, it could be as economical or more so to export from the Moon. See section above: Greenhouse construction - comparison of the Moon and Mars
It could be economical to export from Mars to Mars orbit perhaps for food that can spoil quickly. Another thought, if the natural Mars gravity was an advantage though, and easier to use than artificial gravity, perhaps it could be worthwhile.
It could also be worth doing if conditions on Mars let you produce unusual food or decorative plants more easily. E.g. rare flowers that are very expensive to grow elsewhere, or unusual and rare newfood stuffs that grow best on Mars for some reason, perhaps genetically designed for Mars conditions. This is related to the next topic:
Continuing to
Products you could export could include
For this to work there must be some reason they can't be grown on Earth
Especially if the life is so different that it's potentially hazardous to return the life itself to Earth - or if it depends on conditions that occur naturally on Mars or are easier to create on Mars than on Earth. This case might be another reason to be really careful not to contaminate Mars with Earth life, so that you can grow the native Mars life without interference from Earth life to make the unique products that result from Mars life.
Even if you can't grow the products safely on Earth, at some point you'd have the capability to grow them in Stanford Torus type habitats, biologically isolated from Earth and designed to mimic Mars conditions. Still, by the time that's feasible, export costs from Mars could go down as prices of such habitats go down, so keeping Mars competitive.
Raw opal found in Andamooka South Australia - photo credit CR Peters
It's different from asteroids also - which don't have those ancient seas deposits you have on Mars or the climate.
But right now, I don’t think we have anything that would be worth returning from Mars except scientific understanding of course.
What about:
Remember, that
So, in short, it has to be competitive with platinum, gold etc mined elsewhere in the solar system, and you have to bear in mind that either, the prices you can get from Earth will surely go down. On the other hand if the material you are mining is very valuable, and launch costs are low, perhaps the margin due to cost of export from Mars doesn't make such a big difference. E.g. suppose the launch costs a few hundred million dollars but you are returning tons of material, worth billions of dollars, perhaps it doesn't matter so much that a few percent of your product's price is due to transport. Maybe other elements of the price such as mining are somewhat less expensive than they are for asteroids?
However for this to work, there has to be a reason why other elements of the cost of mining are low. Asteroids and the Moon have the advantages of:
Seems unlikely that the thin Mars atmosphere would help. Would the Mars gravity help, or be a hindrance? And the large temperature swings from day to night, could they help in any way?
If you get colonists who pay in advance for their flight out to Mars - and they use the Mars Colonial Transporter - a 100 people at a time, if SpaceX succeed in producing that spaceship - then the spacecraft has to come back to Earth after every run to transport colonists to Mars, and would be able to take exports with it, which is essentially free transport. So there would be a multiplier effect there of the original passage fee.
However unless the products are already worth returning for one of the other reasons, then at most they could get back their original passage fee by selling the material. Otherwise you'd have a case for sending empty colonial transporter ships to Mars just to return the products.
If this happened, you'd get exports, yes, for as long as the colony continues to expand rapidly. However, that's not a businss case, as it's not going to be sustainable, as a way of supporting a colony there. Even if they can get their money for the flight back from the goods returned from Mars, they then have to support themselves on Mars indefinitely, not just pay for the flight out. And with increasing numbers of colonists on Mars, you'd need exponentially increasing numbers of colonists going out there to support them with the passage fees. If you get increasing numbers of spaceships sent there to send them their supplies, again you need to pay for that somehow.
So, I don't think relying on the nearly empty transporter as it returns to Earth as a way to support the colony is likely to work long term. It works only as long as you have exponentially increasing numbers of colonists going to Mars and nobody coming back or few people coming back.
This is the premise of the Deimos Water Company by David Kuck. Delta v back to Earth is much less and you can produce your own fuel for the journey.
This is a closely related question - looks into what goods might exist on Mars already worthwhile for Earth - where in my answer I suggest possibility of biologically produced materials on Mars from the past, deep millions of tons deposits - wouldn't expect any trace of them on the surface because of cosmic radiation.
Robert Walker's answer to Is Mars worth mining for Earth purposes?
For more background to this, see
This is now one of the chapters of my Case For Moon First - an update of m previous answer here.
I'd argue the same way as Geoffrey Landis. Being able to build without need to engineer to contain multiple tons per square meter - and without need to add meters thickness of radiation shielding i...
(more)I'd argue the same way as Geoffrey Landis. Being able to build without need to engineer to contain multiple tons per square meter - and without need to add meters thickness of radiation shielding is a huge advantage.
If you want a one way mission, then Venus and to stay is better than Mars. Because also - you have the advantage of being able to land using a normal parachute as for Earth, can't do that on Mars. And delta v slightly less. And no hard surface to hit - so long as your habitat or hydrogen balloon opens out at some point around the right level during the slow descent by parachute - then you are fine. No need for fraction of a second precision landing maneuvers.
The lifting force is huge if you build big habitats - and - you can build them huge without much material. It's like an airship - but filled with ordinary atmosphere rather than helium - and you can of course use hydrogen as a lifting gas as well - e.g. for smaller vehicles.
We have already sent balloons to the upper Venus atmosphere, Venera balloons from Russia. Russia actually had ideas for Venus cloud colonies back in 1970s
The sulfuric acid is not nearly as much as a disadvantage as suggested. After all we have sulfuric acid plants, and know how to build machinery to deal with sulfuric acid.
Only the exterior of the habitat - and of any suits or aircraft that need to go out into the atmosphere need to be protected.
As for the crushing heat if you fall -well if you fall on Mars and e.g. break the visor of your spacesuit - or tear it or some such - you will die in seconds from breach in your spacesuit because of the thin almost vacuum atmosphere.
If you fall in the Venus atmosphere - there is some time for rescue - and you can be tethered to the habitat etc. I'd say in terms of safety for humans outside of the habitat, that Venus wins hands down over Mars.
As for hit by incoming spaceship - that's a major issue for any space colony. With the Venus ones - well if it is just some debris creating holes - remember that inside and out is at same pressure so won't explosively decompress no matter how many holes there are. Just gradual diffusion of the atmosphere. And an incoming spaceship will be floating in parachutes - or if not - would burn up in the atmosphere (while on Mars won't burn up so easily if it comes in fast). So again, Venus scores over Mars.
The acid is also actually a major asset as a source of water. Although Venus is so dry, it has a sulfuric acid cycle which produces water vapour naturally. What’s left of the water is concentrated in the clouds nice and handy for cloud colonists.
Sulfuric acid droplets fall towards the surface until eventually the water evaporates, and the sulfuric acid also decomposes, to sulfur dioxide (eventually) and water vapor. These two ingredients then rise in the atmosphere and recombine to make sulfuric acid and the cycle repeats.
So, you reproduce that process inside your habitat to extract the water from the sulfuric acid, or do it in some other way.
MAJOR ADVANTAGES
Compare the massive construction of the ISS - with hardly any windows also
- this is the sort of building construction needed for any habitat on Mars able to have a liveable atmosphere for humans. Low pressure greenhouses for plants only don't need to be quite so engineered, but still far far stronger than Earth greenhouses, still of order of a ton or so outward pressure per square meter) - same for the Moon or anywhere in space:
WE DON'T HAVE PEOPLE LIVING IN AEROSTATS ON EARTH - BUT THEY DON'T LIVE ON HIMALAYAN SUMMITS EITHER
It's true we don't have people living in aerostats on Earth. But we don't have them living on the summits of the Himalayas either in habitats- a better analogy than Antarctica or high arctic - because having breathable oxygen in the air is a huge advantage - as also is the plentiful water in form of ice.
But summits of Himalayas are some orders of magnitude easier places for humans to live than Mars surface. You wouldn't need to engineer to withstand tons per square meter outwards pressure or add meters of cosmic radiation shielding to cover your habitat, and could get oxygen from atmosphere no need to split it from water.
Also do have Buckminster Fuller's Cloud Nine (tensegrity sphere)
Never been built, but seems practical enough, if you work through the engineering details - I think that's generally agreed (though might surprise you if you haven't looked into it) just don't need them here enough to want to build one. A cloud nine in Venus atmosphere doesn't even need to be warmer than the surrounding air.
So have a road map to build entire cities in the Venus atmosphere in the future.
RETURN TO EARTH FROM VENUS
As for return to Earth - yes you need to have boosters floating in the atmosphere. Later on you could create the fuel from the Venus atmosphere - abundant solar power.
To start with - yes do need to send rockets there and have them float in the atmosphere next to the colony ready to return. Expensive but do-able - not sure it is enormously harder than sending a rocket to Mars able to return to Earth - needs someone with the brilliance of Robert Zubrin to work on the engineering details, I think they would find a solution.
Has one advantage - no need for careful touch down on a hard surface. Just need parachute to slow down - and then hydrogen balloon inflates when it is at the right level in the Venus atmosphere - and you have a rocket suspended in the atmosphere next to the habitat ready for return trip.
SIZE AND WEIGHT OF HYDROGEN BALLOON TO SUSPEND FULLY LOADED ROCKET IN VENUS ATMOSPHERE READY FOR LAUNCH
I did a rough calculation here could be useful first ballpark figure:
Calculation of the size of torus, filled with hydrogen, needed to suspend a Soyuz, fueled for lift off, in the Venusian atmosphere next to a cloud colony
Hydrogen is a slightly stronger lifting gas for Venus with denser CO2 atmosphere - and of course no concerns at all of combustion.
Hydrogen has a density of 0.0899 Kg/m3. and Carbon Dioxide, 1.977 kg/ m3, for air it is 1.205 kg / m3
.
So a hydrogen balloon on Venus has lifting power of 1.8871 kg per m3, compared with 1.1151 kg / m3 on EarthTo counteract the mass of a fully fueled Soyuz - lift off mass lift off mass 308 metric tons (not sure of lift off mass for the latest TMA-M), then you would need 308,000/ 1.8871 = 163,213 m^3
That could be more than supplied by a torus filled with hydrogen with radius 50 meters and with the radius of the tube around 14 meters. Volume 193444 m3. Lifting capacity 365 tons.Surface area 27634 m2, so if you had fabric weighing 1 kg / m2 that's 28 tons for the fabric
As a bonus, if we make the torus able to expand to a larger size, like a weather balloon, then it could lift the Soyuz high into the Venus atmosphere before take-off.
If you want to suspend a Falcon Heavy fully loaded for take off - that's a little under 5 times the mass, would need 775,175 m3, so need torus, with inner diameter 126 meters, radius of tube 25 meters.
Want to do more calculations like this, try the Volume of a Torus and Surface Area of a Torus online calculators. The volume one uses diameters, the surface area one uses radii so need to keep that in mind when working with them both at once.
The idea of the torus there is - easier than a balloon because you could launch right through it and leave it behind, undamaged, for next launch to use again.
Your spaceship is suspended in the atmosphere, no need for ground support, just needs to be held from above. So, I think all you need are tethers to tether it to the torus - those are low weight, adds a few more tons, so haven't bothered to take account of those in the calculation.
So - if you can deliver the weight to Venus - or else - generate the fuel on Venus - suspending the rocket next to your habitat for lift off probably isn't a huge engineering issue. And once you've got it to Venus - could use it to shuttle back and forth to orbit around Venus - so long as you generate the fuel on Venus itself. Or import fuel.
MASS OF HABITAT ITSELF
As for mass of the habitat itself - if you just use Earth atmosphere as lifting gas - then it's half the lifting power of helium, roughly half a kilogram for a meter cube of atmosphere.
I'm assuming 1 kg / m2 similar to the fabric used for the Cargolifter (28 ounces a square yard = 0.95 kg / m2).
So for example, suppose it's a 100 meter radius balloon.
r = 100 m
V = 4188790 m3
A = 125664 m2
C = 628.319 mworks out at Max 2,094 tonnes total, and Max 16.5 kg per square meter of surface area.
Assuming 1 kg / m2 for the fabric, that's 126 tons of fabric
If you go up to a cloud nine like 1000 meter radius you get 2,094,395 tons total, and 165 kg per square meter of surface area.
r = 64 m
V = 1098070 m3
A = 51471.9 m2
C = 402.124 mMax payload 549 tons. Max 10 kg per m2.
51 tons of fabricFor a smaller start up colony
r = 29 m
V = 102160 m3
A = 10568.3 m2
C = 182.212 mMax payload 51 tons, Max 5 kg / m2.
11 tons of fabric.(if you want to do more of these, the online Sphere Calculator may save a bit of time).
These are maximum payloads, doesn't have to launch with as much mass as that of course.
VENUS UPPER ATMOSPHERE CLOSE SECOND TO MOST INHOSPITABLE EARTH DESERTS
I'd say Venus atmosphere is an easier place for humans to live than Mars surface - though not nearly so easy as Earth.
I think more useful right now as a way of showing how impractical Mars colonization is rather than as a way of showing how Venus is a good place to colonize. Deserts of Earth far better for colonization than either.
But in our solar system, I think Venus upper atmosphere comes a rather close second to the most inhospitable of the Earth deserts, maybe an easier place to live in some ways than the summits of the Himalayas indeed.
While Mars would be far harder to colonize than a Himalayan summit, surely.
PLANETARY PROTECTION ISSUES - LIFE IN VENUS CLOUDS
Venus does have some planetary protection issues. There just possibly might be life there - sulfuric acid levels could possibly be tolerated by extremophiles, and they'd have trouble staying aloft but not so bad as Earth as residence time for particles at that level, microbe sized, is months rather than days - so need some way of working around that to maintain a population in the high atmosphere - seems not impossible.
So - it's just possible some Earth life could live there - or gradually adapt to live there in interface between human habitat and the atmosphere. And could be native life there which if so has I think personally - major planetary protection impact the other way for return to Earth in case it is some novel form of life e.g. XNA.
Is very indirect evidence suggesting possibility of life in the Venus clouds, not at all conclusive, just slightly suggestive - particles the right size, non spherical - and chemical in the atmosphere normally associated with life on Earth, but could be created by non life processes there. COSPAR passed a Venus sample return as of only minor planetary protection issues - but that was some time back and I think a new investigation now, if someone planned a sample return, might possibly come to another conclusion.
Before we send humans to the Venus clouds we need to check what effect they would have on Venus ecosystem if it has any.
If Venus is lifeless, still need to think through the effects of introducing life to the atmosphere. At first sight - no major issues in that case - a much simpler situation than Mars with its varied terrain that life could inhabit - but this certainly needs a thorough study also. That's because there is no way of turning back the clock - if we introduce life to Venus and it turns out that some forms of Earth life can live in the Venus atmosphere.
If that happens the life would transform the Venus upper atmosphere and clouds. That might well be beneficial to colonists - but the possible effects still would need to be checked.
That's just because, whenever there's a whole planet at stake, and an action we can do will change it irreversibly - we owe it to future generations to proceed with caution, and study first before we act. No matter how promising it seems, we shouldn't just dive in and hope for the best without due diligence checking possible issues first.
Also - if it's likely that we might terraform Venus - have to think longer ahead - what happens to all the floating cloud cities during the terraforming process?
COMPARISON OF CLOUD NINE TENSEGRITY SPHERE IN VENUS ATMOSPHERE WITH STANFORD TORUS
Stanford Torus if it could be built, then huge advantage of a big spacious multiple square kilometer habitable volume built with ideal temperature, gravity, and air pressure - might even be as easy a place for humans to live as the tropics - if it can be made low maintenance. Also, buildable even with 1970s technology but disadvantage of a huge initial investment to build it in the first place.
So again in my view, a Stanford Torus in space - if it can be made low maintenance wins hands down over almost all other ways of building large colonies in space, if we ever wanted to do it.
But a Buckminster Fuller type tensegrity sphere floating in the Venus atmosphere might well be easier to build than a Stanford torus - and easier to maintain.
And has advantage that you can start small with smaller habitats, still able to float in the dense atmosphere - and also far easier to construct than any other habitat we could construct in space, mainly using materials extracted from the atmosphere itself plus a few things dredged up from surface of Mars.
Startup colonies would be launched from Earth - but later on you'd supply using materials from NEOs etc just as for the Stanford Torus - with aerobraking easy to deliver to Venus - and it would also use materials sourced from the Venus atmosphere and surface.
FOR THE FUTURE, DON'T NEED ANYWHERE OUTSIDE OF EARTH TO COLONIZE RIGHT NOW (OPINION)
Personally - I see this as a useful thing to be able to do in the future rather than anything we need urgently right now.
Nowhere is better than Earth, even in worst conceivable disaster. Those who argue that a Mars colony, say, would survive better seem to assume that you have technology on Mars that we don't have on Earth.
If you make it a level playing field - you assume that Earth and the space colonies have access to the same technology, then if space colonies have 3D printers to print spaceships - so does Earth. In that situation any survivors on Earth even after worst possible disaster you can imagine have far better chance of rebuilding civilization than anyone on Mars or in the Venus atmosphere.
That's true even when you get large Stanford toruses or Venusian floating cities - will be a while before they can build spaceships for themselves and until then they are dependent on Earth. When it is easy for them to build spaceships - then it is really easy to make them on Earth - and many other things also would be much easier for us also, and world would be changed in countless ways, hard to anticipate what we would want or need in that situation.
For more about all this, I wrote an article about it some time back, which links to the articles by Geoffrey Landis and others on the subject, and talks a bit about the 1970s Russian plans for Venus cloud colonies.
Will We Build Colonies That Float Over Venus Like Buckminster Fuller's "Cloud Nine"?
UPDATE
Just to say, this is an interesting article from December 2014 about the HAVOC mission. Proposal to send robotic missions to Venus followed by airships as shown. At the same "above the cloud tops" level.
I'd go with the other answers here, but a more cautious "probably" rather than definitely.
Apart from past or present life - there are also the products of life. On the surface - all of that has bee...
(more)I'd go with the other answers here, but a more cautious "probably" rather than definitely.
Apart from past or present life - there are also the products of life. On the surface - all of that has been pretty much completely destroyed by cosmic radiation. But - could be deposits set down by ancient life below the surface, like our oil and gas and oil shale deposits.
You'd think they must be rare or we would have spotted them on the surface. But on the other hand - cosmic radiation is very damaging. Would there be anything left of a surface oil shale deposit after billions of years?
Every about a thousand fold every 650 million years It's an exponential process. Every 650 million years the remaining organics are reduced in the same proportion. After 1.3 billion years, a thousand tons of amino acids gets reduced to a kilogram, with the rest converted mainly to gases like carbon dioxide, water vapour, methane and ammonia. After 2.6 billion years it's down to a microgram (millionth of a gram) and after 3.9 billion years you are down to less than a picogram (10^-12 grams) of your original thousand tons deposit. And of course this radiation leads to deterioration of the sample making it hard to identify it as life.
Habitability, Taphonomy, and Curiosity's Hunt for Organic Carbon
So, I don't think absence of these deposits on the surface, at least not easy to see from satellites, really shows that they don't exist below the surface. There could be millions of tons of organics from past life ten meters below the surface, and our rovers so far would probably not spot a thing.
That's why Curiosity is currently searching for a recently exposed outcrop in Gale Crater in the hope that it might have exposed ancient organics that haven't yet been destroyed by cosmic radiation.
The organics of course also have to be there in the first place (surely likely to be patchy, in some places more than in others) and buried quickly - if it took several hundred million years to bury them, much of the organics would be gone also.
Oil itself surely not worth the trouble of mining to return to Earth - but if there was some unique biological product on Mars that we don't have on Earth - which you could mine to find - maybe that could be worth returning.
Geologically - well - don't know of anything but again is a unique environment - with the dry ice, low atmospheric pressure, cosmic radiation, things will be different from Earth in some respects. E.g. it's salt deposits are made up of sulfates and perchlorates rather than chlorides as on Earth.
So - not geologically identical in all respects. And different from asteroids also - which don't have those ancient seas deposits you have on Mars or the climate.
But right now, I don’t think we have anything that would be worth returning from Mars except scientific understanding of course. For those who think we could mine gold from Mars (or substitute platinum, or titanium, or whatever you think is especially valuable that you could find on Mars), remember, that you have to do all the work to actually run the gold mine and then send it into orbit. Also the price of gold is going to go down- you are going to need to sell billions of dollars worth of it to make the missions to Mars viable, but what happens to the price of gold if you try to sell billions of dollars of gold to Earth?
And if it is viable from Mars, it’s likely to be viable from other places too, particularly, robotic mining of asteroids may undercut you, and then you’d get less for the price of your gold than you spent out mining it, if robot mining of asteroids costs less. So it has to be competitive with gold mined elsewhere in the solar system, and you have to bear in mind that either
I’m not sure it is going to be economically feasible at all, but if it is, I think asteroid mining could easily undercut return of metals from Mars because of the extra delta v need to lift it up from the Mars surface and to send rockets to Mars to pick up the material.
Land like this on Mars is of no intrinsic value to humans, you can't grow crops there, or plant trees. Actually myself, I think there is a reasonable chance that we won't want to have humans on Mars because I expect we'll find interestingly different life there and want to do biologically reversible exploration.
But whether or not we have humans on Mars, we might have greenhouses there that export crops to orbit - as some forms of hydroponics are possible without introducing Earth microbes to Mars. If so you'd own the greenhouses on Mars but not the land they are built on. The land is of no value anyway until you build the greenhouse on it.
Build a habitat like this - in this case a Stanford Torus - and you would own it under the OST. To avoid the solar system becoming filled up with regions nobody can use because of ancient scrap from previous failed attempts - could add agreements on top of that that if it is abandoned for some period of time then others can take it over - say after a decade, with no habitation, or where appropriate (roving machines) no remote control from Earth or elsewhere
But if continually inhabited then others would not be permitted to move it - or build another habitat right next to it - or indeed, to enter it either, without permission of the inhabitants.
Surprisingly perhaps you could build this whole habitat, for 10,000 people, from the material in a small NEO a few hundred meters across.
Mars's moon Deimos has enough material in it to build Stanford toruses with total surface area twice the size of Switzerland or same area as the state of Oregon - and that's just the ground floor of the habitats.
This is a "for instance" - whether we should dismantle Deimos in its entirety to make habitats is another matter - but whether or not - Deimos is a tiny Moon - serves to show that there is plenty of material in NEOs or the asteroid belt - which would also be easy to transport to Mars orbits in any future with extensive space settlement, if that's what we decide to do. Asteroid belt has enough material for space settlements with total land area of a thousand times that of Earth - which could be built almost anywhere in the solar system - there are techniques that would make it easy to move this material to anywhere we need it, with almost no expenditure of fuel (and get the fuel from the asteroids anyway) with enough advance notice for your order.
If you abandon your base, say for a decade or whatever, nobody living there, not controlling it via radio or anything - then others would be able to take it over.
See Mars Pathfinder
If there is interesting life on Mars we may need to sterilize all our rovers there from early missions - in this case Sojourner, quite possibly also remove them from Mars. If that's not necessary, then they may be preserved as of historical interest in Mars parks.
Destruction of ISS in Gravity. Any habitat in space would be vulnerable to destruction by an incoming spaceship or even a large piece of debris from it. So space wars in space in conventional sense would seem to be impossible - they would end quickly with all habitats of all those involved in the war destroyed.
This is equally true for colonies in space or on planetary surfaces, or the Moon or asteroids - and even colonies floating in the upper Venusian atmosphere - though protected to some extent by the thick Venus atmosphere - and not so vulnerable as most space colonies to small fast moving objects which would burn up in the atmosphere - and small meteorites anyway would just puncture the habitats - still would obviously be very vulnerable to any major collisions e.g. with an incoming spaceship.
This is done in Orbiter, and shows the orbit - it has a futuristic spacecraft, but I hope to do it again in near future with a tethered assembly of e.g. Space-X Dragon + fuel tank spinning for Mars gravity - or some other similar arrangement.
It's a "Mars capture orbit" - so the delta v to get into it is actually less than you need to get to the Moon. They could have put something like the lunar module into this orbit - and returned to Earth - with a mission similar to the Apollo ones - that is - except of course the humans couldn't survive the six month journey there, with the Apollo technology.
If a new planet came into our solar system, like this, but with a little more gravity, a very thin atmosphere that would still count as a vacuum, and a bit more ice, would you want to colonize it? Would the general public want to?
Horse island in the Summer Isles, Scotland. Once inhabited, it now is just home to a herd of wild goats. There are many islands here like this. Nobody wants to live on them because they are so inaccessible. And in other places on Earth - because they are too cold, or too hot, or too dry, or in other ways are not quite perfect for human habitation. Much of the Earth is totally uninhabited.
But of course, this island, like the entire surface of the Earth indeed, even the coldest, driest deserts, is an absolute paradise compared to Mars. We hardly need extra living space on Mars.
1. That most ETs would look almost exactly like humans, perhaps with unusually shaped wrinkles on their foreheads
Or with a slit on his nose, and unusual patterns of hair
You'll notice - that normall...
(more)1. That most ETs would look almost exactly like humans, perhaps with unusually shaped wrinkles on their foreheads
Or with a slit on his nose, and unusual patterns of hair
You'll notice - that normally the eyes, eyebrows, and mouth don't get changed.
It's understandable, as a movie trope, because we need to be able to read the expressions of the aliens.
If they had faces like sheep, or parrots, then hardly anyone would be able to read emotions in their faces, and it would be hard to recognize individual characters also especially if of the same species - just as most find it hard to tell two sheep apart by their faces if they are of the same species of sheep - would make the movie maker's job far harder.
However, the chances that ETs look more like us than chimpanzees, never mind parrots, octopuses, dogs, sheep, or any other animals on Earth, must be infinitesima
I do like the Star trek movies - but as science fiction not fact.
The movies later came up with an explanation of it, that the present day humanoids all originated from an ancient humanoid 4 billion years ago that seeded the oceans with genetic material that lead inevitably to modern humans - and similar often interfertile humans on other planets - all arising around the same time period.
Humanoid
Michael Daniel talks about a few memorable examples of non humanoid aliens in a comment so - it’s not always, but just very common. I’m a Doctor Who fan for instance and though they have many humanoid aliens, including the Doctor himself of course, so similar he passes for human, they do have a fair number of memorable non humanoid ETs that look nothing like humans.
2. That if you travel slower than light you see the stars changing position as you move
That's what you see from the USS Enterprise even at sub light speeds.
Instead - that can only happen when you go faster than light - even at speed of light you'd travel years before you noticed any changes except for the very nearest stars and even those would take weeks or months to change position noticeably.
You would see some motion of the stars yes, but not as in the movies. As you approach the speed of light, all the stars seem to move forward and gather together into a single bright spot in front of you, and blue shift to become extremely bright and hard radiation such as gamma rays.
For the stars to move past their windows in real time, they’d have to be traveling at light years per minute. At that rate it would take just a few weeks to cross the entire galaxy (at one light year per minute it would take a couple of months), not the many years of the Voyager projected time to get home. And the nearby stars would move faster than the more distant ones by parallax.
Since all the visible stars, most of them hundreds of light years in distance, move past the windows, then that makes their speed hundreds of light years per minute, in which case they’d cross the galaxy in less than a day (diameter of galaxy 100,000 light years). Even at warp speed, in the Star Trek movies, Voyager was projected to take many decades to get back home, but if they traveled only at sublight speeds, and moved past the stars as fast as this, they’d get back within a day.
3. That ETs would be biologically compatible with humans and able to eat our food, which would also taste the same and have similar biological effects.
A Primer to 'Star Trek' Food and Drink
Chance that the food would taste at all similar to them, surely infinitesimal.
Chances that ETs would be based on DNA just like Earth and able to eat Earth proteins at all must be infinitesimal unless they actually are related to us genetically.
And - if they have microbes like we have - but based on different form of DNA, i.e. XNA - in experiments on the Earth we have to be extremely cautious not to create XNA based lifeforms that could survive in the wild. Worst case is -that they could turn out to be better than DNA at surviving in the wild and take over from DNA.
So, similarly, every time the Star Trek crew beam down to a new planet - they run a serious risk of introducing DNA to the planet that might well wipe out all life on that planet. Or vice versa, if that didn't happen, then the XNA microbes returned from the planet might well wipe out all DNA on the starship.
What did the Earth microbes do to this planet - which has probably never seen DNA life before? What did the XNA of the planet do to the Earth life?
Actually there is a possible explanation in Star Trek mythology - again based on that idea of a progenitor humanoid of why we have all these similarities Humanoid
But even so - even if you accept the idea of identical DNA in planets tens of thousands of light years apart spread by some pro-genitor humanoids - why have the microbes in the different planets also co-evolved so that no microbes in one planet are harmful to any of the other planets?
Anyway whether it works or not within the Star Trek fantasy mythology - I think pretty unlikely to happen in reality, that ETs originating on planets light years apart have the same DNA and can eat the same foods, and visit each other's planets and not bring foreign microbes with them.
The closest to this in movies I know of is perhaps War of the Worlds - where the threat is a microbe that is able to infect the ETs - not impossible but probably one of the less likely of the various ways that alien microbes could wreak havoc on us or vice versa.
4. That ETs would be at a similar level of technology to us. Let’s make that a bit more specific - that their technology level would be somewhere between the technology of Neanderthals and the technology we may have 50,000 years into the future.
That’s vanishingly unlikely. Even in our solar system. One of the most habitable places in our solar system is Europa’s ocean, in our own solar system. With an oxygen rich ocean, there may be some small chance of a civilization of non technological fish or octopuses or some such. If so, then even though it formed around the same time as Earth, the chance that any civilization there is just a few thousand or a few hundred thousand years old must be tiny. Chances are, either there is no civilization there, or it is millions of years old. That’s just in our own solar system.
Now add in that our star was by no means the first star that life could evolve around. Their star could have formed up to ten billion years ago. And now they are supposing that they are at the same technological level as us, i.e. their development so exactly paralleled ours that there are many civilizations at the same level of technology we have in the 21st century, not the nineteenth century or the year 3000 or whatever. What’s the chance of that?
The Star Trek universe they explore is obviously a young one, with
I know that it’s the assumption in many movie plots, but it requires a lot of “suspension of disbelief”. In the Star Trek universe they hypothesize “ancient humanoids” that seeded many planets with DNA so designed that they would all evolve to civilizations of humanoids with space faring technology at around the same time, to within a few centuries, 4.5 billion years later.
Ancient humanoid who in the Star Trek universe seeded many planets with life which independently evolved to humanoid lifeforms which then evolve space faring technology within a few centuries of each other 4.5 billion years later
That maybe works in fiction, but in reality, the idea is just absurd.
So they would be likely to be a millions of years old civilization. Either they have no technology (e.g. in an aquatic dolphin society, or even the likes of clever parrots, able to do some manipulation of objects but not to the extent we can), or they have millions of years old technology. If nearly every star has a civilization, there may be a few at similar levels of technology to us, but the number must be tiny. You can do a calculation to figure out how many.
So - you have to feed some numbers into it, but let’s say that civilizations have been possible for 10 billion years, and that it takes 5 billion years on average to evolve to a civilization on a planet, similar to Earth. That way you’d end up with lots of civilizations. How many then would be at Earth’s level of technology, or close to it, say as advanced as the Neanderthals but not as advanced as 50,000 years into our future. That’s a 300,000 year timescale. Then, assuming that evolution to technology is easy so we have lots of civilizations evolving for the last 5 billion years and that the distribution in time is random, one civilization in 16,000 of the ones with technology would be at a similar level of technology to us. But just about every civilization the Star Trek crew encounter is at this level. All the invasion movies also involve aliens at similar levels of technology to us.
Of course if they all became extinct soon after reaching our level of technology that would be different. But that’s not an idea explored in the movies, and I think it’s implausible myself.
See also:
5. That stars and planets are much closer together than they really are. In Star Trek again, often you have boundaries between multiple star systems that are defined to the nearest kilometer - you move your ship just a few kilometers, even meters, and you find yourself in “Klingon territory” or whatever, light years away from the nearest star. They drop out of warp within a few kilometers of another spaceship. When they give distances to things, it’s always a few hundred or a few thousand kilometers. In reality, the distance from Earth to Moon is over 300,000 kilometers, so they rarely are as far away from anywhere sublight as the distance from Earth to Moon. Distance from Earth to Mars at closest is more like 67 million kilometers. Mars At Closest Point To Earth in 11 Years May 30, 2016 - Universe Today
CONVERGENCE OF FORM FOR INTELLIGENCE
You might wonder if ETS might all look similar because of some convergence of form, like the way that fish and dolphins look similar.
However, most intelligent animals on the Earth are - apart from Humans - Chimpanzees true - but that's no surprise as they are related to us. But also
Of those, the Chimpanzees are not necessarily the most intelligent. Some think parrots are most intelligent, which is why I listed them first.
If you looked at Earth say ten million years ago before emergence of modern humans or early hominids, you wouldn't necessarily pick out primates as the ones most likely to evolve intelligence.
You do get convergence where it is needed for something to happen. Bats and birds both have wings, in both cases two roughly similar (though some dinosaurs had four wings as do many insects of course).
Perhaps in the universe as a whole, in Earth like atmospheres nearly all flying creatures that have wings - though you do have alternatives in princile such as creatures that use hot air or gases like hydrogen to fly.
Dolphins and fish both look similar in shape. But again, squids can swim, and so can jellyfish, in their own way.
Eyes come in a small number of different forms - but with some variation including compound eyes.
It does seem likely, from our Earth - that Earth like planets might well have recognizable "fish", and "birds" and that there may be many creatures with eyes that look like animal eyes.
Intelligence though - this seems to come in many different forms. There doesn't seem to be any particular pattern to it, so seems unlikely that ETs would even closely resemble us.
If technological, they need hands or tentacles or something of that sort, and need to be reasonably strong. But you can imagine many ways that could happen. If parrot like for instance they'd need extra grasping limbs or tentacles to hold onto things, or very agile and strong feet. Octopuses could do with tentacles that separate out into "fingers" at the end perhaps. Similarly Elephants could evolve fingers a the ends of their trunks.
And dolphins - need something - tentacles, fins that can operate as hands or something like that if they evolve technology like us.
Binocular vision would also help.
Non technological but intelligent and civilized ETs wouldn't need to have any of those.
And - they could be as different from us as the slime moulds, somewhat intelligent, surprisingly.
And ideas to use them to make computers
Growing Computers from Slime Mold
EYES AND EXPRESSION
For that matter, also eyes - all the movie ETs, even ones that are not supposed to be related to humans at all - they have eyes that are astonishingly human like except, sometimes, for eye colour. They look more like human eyes than the eyes even or sheep, or dogs, or cats.
Human like eyes pretty unlikely you'd think as no other animal has eyes that look quite like ours except Chimpanzees.
And nearly all ETs in films will laugh and smile when happy - almost no animals except humans do this.
It seems extra-ordinarily unlikely that ETs would be so similar to us that they bare their teeth when happy (for many animals that's a clear sign of anger) and make laughing sounds that resemble ours when they hear a joke.
But of course they need human like eyes and mouths, or it would be almost impossible for most people to read the expressions on their faces.
Other ET ideas in films make more sense. For instance when ETs make themselves look physically bigger when angry or defensive - extend spines or in other ways make themselves seem larger - that I find quite plausible. A wide range of creatures on the Earth do that. So if we are a good analogy, might well be many ETs that do the same. It makes logical sense also.
Mars Society and Robert Zubrin estimate 1,000 years to establish large plant life followed by a few more millennia to get the oxygen levels up to Earth levels.
Chris McKay in one of his papers estim...
(more)Mars Society and Robert Zubrin estimate 1,000 years to establish large plant life followed by a few more millennia to get the oxygen levels up to Earth levels.
Chris McKay in one of his papers estimates 100,000 years for the complete process.
This is assuming a mega technology generating greenhouse gases etc - but basically it's done using biology. Could be speeded up a bit with giant mirrors in space.
If you look at the rate at which plants and algae can create oxygen then you can come up with a far more optimistic centuries long scale for making an oxygen rich atmosphere once you release the CO2.
But the problem with that is that it's seasonal and generally as much oxygen gets taken out of the atmosphere as gets added to it each year by plants.
So what you really need to look at is carbon capture. The reaction of photosynthesis splits water to create oxygen, but it also takes up CO2 to form an organic biproduct. So depends on taking CO2 out of the atmosphere permanently to work.
You need to see how much carbon is taken out of the atmosphere permanently, from the CO2, and then that tells you how much the O2 increases.
If you do the calculation that way - then look at typical rates of carbon deposits formation in the past - e.g. coal, peat, oil, oil shale, and look at the fastest formation rates, you end up with your tens or hundreds of thousands of years.
Or to put it another way - after creating a CO2 atmosphere on Mars similar but not as dense as Earth's - then you'd have to remove enough carbon from the atmosphere to cover the entire surface of Mars with peat or coal to some meters depth. You can see intuitively that that's not likely to happen in a century or two.
So, in practise most of the time involved would be for this last step which would take millennia almost certainly, to build up those huge deposits of wood or peat over the surface of Mars, and one hundred thousand years may well be about right (on the Earth of course it took millions of years).
Of course nanotechnology could change everything, this is assuming you use biology.
There are many other issues though with terraforming Mars. Mars is different from Earth in so many ways. No continental drift. Far less ice than you'd expect on a snowball Earth - it's cold enough of course so entire surface would be covered in ice if it had anything like as much water as Earth - no magnetic field to protect from solar storms. Closer to the asteroid belt so higher impact rate. Less gravity.
Obviously colder - even an exact duplicate of Earth - if you moved it out to the Mars orbit would become a snowball Earth right away so just for that reason obviously the climate cycles that work on Earth won't work unmodified on Mars.
Also the gravity at a third of Earth's means you need three times the mass of oxygen per square meter to get the same atmospheric partial pressure of oxygen - same for nitrogen and CO2.
One of the big differences for long term terraforming is that it has no continental drift which on Earth is what returns the CO2 to the atmosphere. So it's not at all clear how a terraformed Mars would stay terraformed on the very long time scales - you'd have to set up a way of microbes eating limestone as its formed, in a way that doesn't happen on the Earth - not impossible - but suggests beings with great understanding of biological cycles to be able to set up something like that that works long term without glitches.
At the moment I think pretty clear we have nowhere near the understanding to terraform even a second Earth that's exactly like ours but say in snowball phase. After all look at how much controversy there is over the effects of adding 0.01% of CO2 to the atmosphere - and how difficult it is to decide what to do or to deal with the issues. So how can we think about terraforming another planet yet, and especially one that needs a different solution from Earth?
At any rate we need to be careful not to contaminate Mars with Earth life until we have a chance to study it to see what's there. Then - if we do decide it's okay to colonize (which I'm not sure we will) and want to terraform it -then again we have to think carefully about the effect of introducing Earth life to the planet on our terraforming attempts.
For instance we might well want to start by using cyanobacteria to create oxygen. That's going to be more effective if there are no aerobes to eat up the oxygen and nothing on the planet to eat the cyanobacteria. If you landed humans on Mars first then both those things would exist and could eat the cyanobacteria and consume the oxygen - do both and result might be almost no effect. Also microbes introduced to the planet could change it's atmosphere in unpredictable ways -e.g. methane atmosphere or whatever, just depending on which happens to win out in the evolutionary changes that happen in them as they adapt to Mars.
And - what big mega technological project have humans ever done with modern technology that lasted a century and was done successfully? Never mind a thousand year project? What happens if it is abandoned half way - what happens to Mars?
Also Chris McKay has suggested that if Mars life turns out to be interestingly different from Earth life, then instead of terraforming Mars, we should carefully remove all traces of Earth Life from the planet- in the form of the rovers on the planet that we know have dormant Earth microbes on them - and then "Mars form" it (my name for what he suggests) so that it is best suited for Martian lifeforms.
We can afford to do things like that - nothing says we have to colonize Mars - as arguably free colonies using materials from the asteroids are easier to construct especially if you need or want to have full Earth gravity in a large spacious area surrounded by meters of cosmic radiation shielding - that's likely to be far easier to do with a free spinning habitat in space than to attempt a huge spinning habitat on the surface of a planet with gravity less than Earth.
And there's enough material in the asteroid belt for cosmic radiation shielding for living area 1000 times the surface area of the Earth.
And - that's all far future anyway - in near future then Earth is by far the most terrraformable planet in the solar system - obviously - and would remain so immediately after a giant asteroid impact or global nuclear war or even both combined.
Lots of questions. I think the ideas for terraforming Mars are great intellectual exercises and can help us understand Earth better. They may also be useful for the larger closed system habitats such as the Stanford Torus. Whether we ever use them for a planet - I don't know, but surely need more understanding than we have now - e.g. through more than a few decades of good data and models working fine on Earth - and through study of exoplanets.
See also my Trouble With Terraforming Mars
Also Asteroid Resources Could Create Space Habs For Trillions; Land Area Of A Thousand Earths
and other articles in my column.
UPDATE - I wrote this answer some time ago. Since then I’ve written Case For Moon First and was surprised to find out that the Moon wins out against Mars in just about every comparison. It seems a ...
(more)UPDATE - I wrote this answer some time ago. Since then I’ve written Case For Moon First and was surprised to find out that the Moon wins out against Mars in just about every comparison. It seems a good place to set up a base such as the ESA village and to explore human settlement. I think it is far too soon to think about colonization. If we had the technology to colonize the Moon or Mars or anywhere else, we’d be able to colonize the seas of Earth with sea cities using only the air and sea water as resources - that’s far easier than “colonizing” Mars. We could get all our living requirements from those floating sea cities plus asteroid resources, if we used the same technology suggested for Mars “colonization” - which we don’t have yet.
Original answer:
Could be, but for interplanetary missions, I think a better precursor is the L2 position on far side of the Moon.
First, though, I don't think we should colonize Mars and not sure about the Moon but definitely not Mars, at this stage.
WHY WE SHOULDN'T COLONIZE MARS AT LEAST NOT NOW
That's because the one thing that makes Mars most interesting is the possibility of biologically interesting life on the planet - both ancient traces and possibly today also. That's also the thing that makes it most vulnerable to contamination by humans. We shouldn't have humans anywhere near the surface of Mars - unless we are totally sure that they won't contaminate it. It's hard to see how we could be so sure though, because there are thought to be possible habitats on Mars, and there's a definite risk of a hard landing, which would be an immediate fail of planetary protection. That's not to mention problems with spacesuits and airlocks that would leak microbes all the time onto the surface.
Anyway, neither the Moon nor Mars are of much use as a place for humans to live in their present form, you'd die immediately. Even after an asteroid strike or nuclear war, the best place to terraform would be Earth, not Mars or the Moon.
SO YOU GO TO EXPLORE AND DESIGN YOUR SETTLEMENT ACCORDINGLY
So you go there to explore, like Antarctica. But if you do that, you build your colony as a settlement rather, like the Antarctic research stations, wherever they are most needed for the research.
That might not be on the surface, it might be in orbit, maybe in case of Moon some on the surface. But in the case of Mars, most likely, in orbit around the planet, controlling robots on the surface by telepresence.
For now at least. Later on I think we could have colonies in space perhaps - and if so - makes most sense to make them out of materials from the asteroids and NEOs. Because - your colony has to be shielded from solar radiation and cosmic radiation by tons per square meter of shielding. Do that on a planetary surface and you have to live a basically trologdyte existence.
But in free space, with Stanford torus habitats and so forth, you can make your habitats large and spacious inside, as technology improves, and with full gravity or whatever level you need. And there's enough material in the asteroid belt for habitats with a thousand times the land area of the Earth's continents.
UNPROVEN TECHNOLOGY FOR INTERPLANETARY FLIGHT
But - so far we haven't yet flown a single spacecraft with a closed self contained habitat making its own oxygen and recycling everything without tons of supply from Earth every few months and disposing of tons of waste back to our atmosphere every few months. We also haven't really cracked the issue of radiation shielding, just make sure nobody spends too long in the ISS. And haven't even begun to test artificial gravity in space. In that situation - then before we do anything else we need to test an interplanetary flight somewhere close to hand.
I think the L2 position, far side of the Moon, is ideal for that. Close enough to Earth so you can get back in a couple of days. Far enough away, also with the Moon between you and Earth to have a real sense of psychological isolation, and need for some independent decisions. Useful because you can use it for telerobotic exploration of the lunar poles and far side, and to build far side long wave radio telescopes (just spooling out cables basically) using telerobots on the surface.
Would be an interesting mission for the astronauts. If you don't find the idea of such a mission interesting you are probably not cut out for space exploration.
NEXT STEP AFTER THAT - MARS EXPLORATION FROM ORBIT
Mars exploration from orbit would be amazing - with an orbit that takes you close to Mars every 12 hours - continually changing in the sky, and explore any part of Mars by telepresence. No need to go to the surface. Just as humans like being in the ISS, they'd enjoy orbit around Mars also I think, so long as we can crack the health issues, find a way to do it safely without contaminating Mars.
I don't think we absolutely have to do this. It might cost less to send rovers and gradually work on making them more and more autonomous. But humans in orbit with telepresence could probably explore better and faster.
And they'd out do humans on the surface also in my view, even without the contamination issue, because not restricted by clumsy spacesuits, able to control robots anywhere on the surface, no need for life support on the surface, lightweight robots instead able to explore in dangerous places no humans can go to.
But biggest plus of all is that robots can be sterilized. Humans, currently, can't be sterilized and no spacesuit been designed or spacecraft to guarantee to keep the Earth microbes within the human habitat.
LESSON FROM APOLLO - DO ONE STEP AT A TIME, A BOLD EXPEDITION THAT'S BASED ON MANY PRIOR SPACE MISSIONS AND A STEP BY STEP PROGRESS.
But - one step at a time. With Apollo they did many flights closer to home before they went to the Moon, testing all the things they needed. If they had launched straight to the Moon from Earth without the Gemini missions for instance, and the fly by of the Moon and the docking tests and the Apollo 10 that flew there and did a test landing but came back again before reaching the surface - then the astronauts would surely have died.
Those who suggest going straight to Mars in one go with unproven spaceships are ignoring the lessons learnt with Apollo (it doesn't count as proof of fitness for humans to send the spaceship to Mars without humans in it). And if you not only go to Mars but land on the surface, you are doing a pointless thing that will make it almost impossible for future biologists to have any confidence in their findings about Martian biology especially since we now have instruments that could detect a single amino acid or a single DNA molecule in a sample,
That's my view on it anyway - just presenting it as I see it.
See also
and many other articles at Robert Walker's blog
"... Ownership of objects launched into outer space, including objects landed or constructed on a celestial body, and of their component parts, is not affected by their presence in outer space or on a celestial body or by their return to the Earth..." . (Outer Space Treaty)
This has been interpreted as meaning that if you construct a habitat on the Moon or use materials from an asteroid to construct a habitat in space, that you own the habitat though not the Moon or asteroid.
Artists' impressions of giant impact#s on the Earth. Some of these might cause a firestorm over the entire Earth, which burns up just about everything and makes most species extinct over the entire Earth. This is about the only likely thing that could make Earth momentarily uninhabitable by humans throughout its surface - and that just for a few hours during the firestorm. Anyone who survived, underground or beneath the sea, would find the surface of the Earth is still, by far, the most habitable place in the solar system and best place to "re-terraform".
"Benny Wenda, a Lani man from the highlands, is a Papuan leader now in exile in the UK, and a singer. There are songs for everything, he says: songs for climbing a mountain, songs for the fireside, songs for gardening. "Since people are interconnected with the land, women will sing to the seed of the sweet potato as they plant it, so the earth will be happy." Meanwhile, men will sing to the soil until it softens enough to dig." (Songs and freedom in West Papua)
"This technique is especially challenging in its application, because musicians today are so rigidly trained in metrical regularity.
Yet, like the beating of the heart, the musical pulse needs to fluctuate in speed as the emotional content of the music fluctuates. Like the natural shifting accents in speech, musical accents need to shift according to the meaning being expressed. To feel perfect, music must be metrically imperfect."
"The cognitive partner of hesitation is anticipation: anticipation is created by building up assumption on assumption about what will happen. When the event which should occur fails to happen at the expected time, there exists a moment of disappointment.
Disappointment, however, is soon transformed into a rush of pleasure when the anticipated event is consummated. The art is always in the timing."
"When the alignment of notes in the score suggests that they be performed strictly and simultaneously, they may be purposely jumbled or played in an irregular or a staggering manner to create a careless (sans souci) effect. This technique gives music a feeling of relaxed effortlessness"
"Entasis is an ancient Greek term meaning tensioning. Speech that is delivered in a metrically perfect manner has the power to cause the listener's brain to shutdown and cease processing the meaning of what is being said...all within a few seconds of hearing such speech. The human brain needs the condition of constant or stable irregularity to remain alert and attentive. Regularity eliminates the feeling of discomfort which chaos, the erratic and irregular, often creates. The balance in tension between the feeling of predictability, which constancy (stability) provides, and the feeling of anticipation, which irregularity and unpredictability creates, is a state of entasis. (The opposite of entasis is stasis or staticness.) In normal human speech, Entasis is brought about by the flow of thought, and this flow is both irregular and constant. So it must be in music.
The French, in the 17th and 18th centuries, understood the importance of entasis; musicians who wrote about inégal were likely referring to this concept. The word actually means rough, irregular, unequal, but the conventional interpretation of the word betrays the real meaning by forcing it to conform to the present fashion for perfect metricallity in performance practice of old music. That interpretation suggests that inégal means perfectly regular “limping.” Had the French writers meant that they might have used the term for limping or the phrase égal inégal
...
Metrical exactitude in musical performance also guarantees that most music is only heard but not listened to. It is the embodiment of slavishness in music, i.e. the music is the slave of the beat when it should be its master, exactly the opposite of what C.P.E. Bach suggested when he wrote that one should "endeavor to avoid everything mechanical and slavish. Play from the soul, not like a trained bird."[6]
This technique is especially challenging in its application, because musicians today are so rigidly trained in metrical regularity. Yet, like the beating of the heart, the musical pulse needs to fluctuate in speed as the emotional content of the music fluctuates. Like the natural shifting accents in speech, musical accents need to shift according to the meaning being expressed. To feel perfect, music must be metrically imperfect.."
The Russian Gun At The International Space Station - James Oberg's Pioneering Space
Actually physically getting them there is feasible, even life support also if you just talk about shifting a certain amount of mass to Mars. But there is much more to it than that.
LANDING SAFELY
Fir...
(more)Actually physically getting them there is feasible, even life support also if you just talk about shifting a certain amount of mass to Mars. But there is much more to it than that.
LANDING SAFELY
First - they have to land there safely. Landing on Mars is far harder than anywhere else in the inner solar system, if you need a soft landing. The problem is - that the atmosphere is so thin, it's not really enough to slow you down to a soft landing even with huge parachutes. But it is still enough so that as soon as you hit the Mars atmosphere you are totally committed.
In the case of the lunar landings, right up to the last minute, the astronauts could choose to abort and fly back to orbit.
Apollo 11 landing Side by side view of Apollo 11's descent, (for some reason is not embedding as video properly, just thumbnail so you need to click on that link to watch it)
In the case of the lunar landings, right up to the last minute, the astronauts could choose to abort and fly back to orbit.
Apollo 11 landing Side by side view of Apollo 11's descent - narrated by Neil Armstrong,
showing the view out of the lunar module's window side by side with the broader panorama from google Moon, reconstructed from recent Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter data. Original side by side Video created by GoneToPlaid - news story about his video. He landed with only seconds of fuel left. See also What went wrong on the Apollo 11 moon landing
The Apollo crew could have aborted at any stage during this landing sequence and simply flown back into orbit again
In case of Mars, that's not feasible because you've lost so much energy through atmospheric friction.
Escaping from Mars back to orbit again is only something you would do after you get there - with present day technology anyway - most likely using fuel you created on the surface of Mars from feedstock transported there earlier in a previous mission.
Mars Direct - The Mars Society
Mars direct idea to create fuel on the surface from hydrogen feedstock for the return journey - unlike Apollo you have to land on the surface first and refuel before you have a chance to escape back to orbit, and can't just abort during the landing. So you are totally committed, as soon as you hit the atmosphere, but can't use parachutes for a soft landing as you can on Earth.
So you are committed to the atmosphere, but to an atmosphere that isn't capable of giving you a soft landing. It's no surprise that we have had so many hard landings on Mars.
It's not for nothing that they called the Curiosity landing "seven minutes of terror".
Seven Minutes of Terror: The Challenges of Getting to Mars
If they are lucky, first few spacecraft might land there safely. But that doesn't mean it is safe. Might just be luck. For instance many space shuttles flew safely before each of the two disasters.
Challenger soon after lift off on its final mission STS-51-L. The many successful missions before were no guarantee of success; it crashed soon after lift off
Columbia taking off on its final mission, the second Space Shuttle disaster. It crashed as it attempted re-entry.
Designing a human rated spacecraft to land safely on Mars is probably of similar order of complexity to designing the space shuttle.
LIFE SUPPORT
We have no experience at all of long term life support in space in a closed system. With the ISS they depend on sending tons of material to the habitat every few months - and disposing of tons of material also. They can't even wash their own clothes but just burn them up in the atmosphere and get clean clothes sent up to them again.
Progress (spacecraft) - there are three or flights per year, just to supply materials to the ISS. The spacecraft is kept attached to the ISS, and filled with waste materials which burn up in the atmosphere when it is discarded. You can't have progress spacecraft continually supplying essential materials to interplanetary spacecraft in this way - and we have not yet tested a spacecraft able to maintain a crew in space for a year or more without continual resupply from Earth
To go straight from the ISS to an interplanetary flight, even a fly by, is a huge leap, I don't think we are ready for that yet, and I think, demonstrate in practice that whatever idea you have for long term life support can work for years on end.
If we could do this on the ISS it would hugely reduce the costs of supporting the astronauts in space. If astronauts could be healthy for years on end in space also, you'd only need a mission to the ISS every year or two. That we haven't managed to do that yet shows how difficult the task is. At any rate the ISS is not a good test of interplanetary spaceflight systems and was not designed as such.
I think the issues of long term life support are greatly underestimated by the optimists. It may be that there are simple ways to do it, e.g. algae for oxygen or whatever. But this needs to be demonstrated first
How can you say that humans can live on Mars or the Moon when we can't yet send humans to Earth orbit for more than a few months at a time, and have never, to this date, had any examples of humans surviving in a closed system or near closed system outside of the Earth's atmosphere?
And how long would it take us to build that capability? I think surely some decades, not as soon as the 2020s. Because you need some experience of actually living in space and things going wrong for periods of years at a time first, and that has to be done, surely, closer to home like the Moon where we can return people to Earth in an emergency.
RADIATION
Colonists on Mars would be troglodytes. It's okay to live there for a year or two probably, if you don't mind an extra risk of 3% of cancer that would on average cut your life short by 15 years if you get it. But anyone living there long term would be limited to a couple of hours a day in the open in a spacesuit. That's also your limit, not just for spacesuits, but also, on travel in vehicles over the surface, and your time in greenhouses exposed to natural light, because the small amount of air in a greenhouse wouldn't provide much protection from the hugely penetrating cosmic radiation.
This shows cosmic radiation damage of DNA. On the surface of Mars every cell will get hit many times by highly energetic cosmic rays, which on Earth are absorbed by our thick atmosphere and the magnetosphere. Mars has no thick atmosphere and almost no magnetic field.
Most colonists would spend as much time indoors as possible. If you limit yourself to a couple of hours out of doors (including in vehicles) a day, that leaves you with a 3% extra risk of a cancer, as best as we can estimate it at present. Of those who die from cancer, on average their life expectancy will be reduced by 15 years (these figures have large error margins).
It's like living on Earth immediately after a global nuclear war, worse probably, to try to live on Mars with the cosmic radiation.
Most of your life you'd need to be protected by meters of regolith from the cosmic radiation.
Fetus's and young children are especially vulnerable and young or pregnant wouldn't be permitted to go outside at all probably.
GRAVITY EFFECTS
The low gravity has unknown effects on human body. It might be that Martian gravity would stop your bones from growing and mean that you lose bone mass, just like for zero gravity. The optimists say that your body would develop normally on Mars and just have much weaker bones, whatever you need for the Martian environment. But we didn't evolve on Mars, and that's really hopeful thinking rather than good science I think. It might well be that young children for instance have no bone growth on Mars in their legs and arms and weight bearing parts of their body. It might be that it's impossible to give birth and for a fetus to grow normally in the Mars gravity.
This is simply unknown at present, we need to know the answers before anyone contemplates long term residence in low g environments.
EXPENSE OF LIVING CONDITIONS ON MARS
If you want to build on Mars you need your buildings to be able to withstand tons per square meter of outwards pressure. You need to make all your oxygen from the water or similar sources. There's no way this is going to be as easy as living on Earth, it's going to be hugely expensive - or a massive amount of your time.
Close up of the ISS, the modules have to be engineered to withstand ten tons per square meter outwards pressure, and windows especially are hard to make. You will never be able to build a normal house on Mars, in the next few centuries at least but have to build massively constructed structures like this, with few windows, just to contain the air.
Yes could have domes for greenhouses on Mars - but they also have to be spherical or almost spherical in structure and made of strong materials able to withstand ten tons per square meter outward pressure.. You can't just build a lightweight greenhouse like you can on Earth, so living on Mars would always be hugely more difficult than living on the Earth at least with present day technology..
And you depend on complex equipment to stay alive. Even spacesuits are pretty expensive items - and if you damage your spacesuit, probably you can't repair it, but are stranded in your habitat until someone can send you a repalcement.
The environment regulation is hugely complicated - at least until we get to the point where you can have natural Biosphere 2 type atmosphere generation - a dozen or more different poisonous gases that can build up in a human habitat, in case of the ISS system. And this is going to be more complex than the ISS because the ISS depends on ability to vent gases into space and constant supply of oxygen from Earth, and is no way a closed system.
It's really only a place that multi-billionaires could contemplate living long term - or ordinary people if massively subsidised to hundreds of millions of dollars per person.
Yes perhaps as Elon Musk proposes, you could physically get people to Mars, land them there, for your $500,000, but could you keep them alive, and would they be alive when they get there, and how much would it cost long term to support them?
PROBLEMS WITH THE BASIC MOTIVATION
The biggest problem though is with the motivation behind it, that you go to Mars for a second home or to escape from Earth. There is no way that Mars is gong to be a second home in that sense. And terraforming is a thousand year long project even for the most optimistic, and others say it is more like a 100,000 year long project.
That means - that you are doing it, not to solve problems in our present generation, but because you think our descendants 1000 years from now will appreciate what you are doing. But - they might not, what we do to Mars now might cause problems 1000 years from now if we do things that mess Mars up through carelessness.
CONTAMINATING MARS
This is the biggy for me. There is no way we can send humans to Mars without greatly increasing the risk of introducing Earth life to the planet.
The easiest way to see that is, that if you have a hard landing on Mars, then the crashed spacecraft would be an immediate huge fail of our efforts under COSPAR to keep Mars clear of Earth life contamination.
Mars Polar lander - as it should have been, artist's impression. Sadly, it crashed during the landing, probably because of a program design error - the software didn't take account of vibrations caused when the legs deployed, although this was a known issue, and interpreted this as landing, and so cut off the engine too soon.
It is a potential contamination risk for Mars. Hopefully some time as our technology matures, we can go back and recover the debris and either sterilize it or remove it from the Mars surface
If humans crash on Mars similarly, it's a huge immediate fail of planetary protection. With dead bodies on the surface, together with their food, water, air, then there would be hundreds of trillions of microbes in tens of thousands of species - most unknown to science as only a tiny percentage of microbes have ever been characterized and studied - and the Martian dust storms could spread this to anywhere on the surface of Mars, and there are many microbes that we know can enter highly resistant dormant states - and that can also survive in Mars analog habitats and grow there, for some of the habitats we are almost certain exist on Mars.
I'd say that the same also applies for humans on the surface, it's not feasible to land a biohazard containment laboratory on Mars with Earth microbes in the habitats as the biohazard to contain, and spacesuits leak air constantly through the joints. And the habitats can't possibly be totally closed system, will be various wastes that get vented, and if any humans die, their bodies won't be recycled in such small habitats, or kept permanently inside the habitats, I'm pretty sure.
But the most obvious thing is the hard landing. There is simply no way around that on modern technology as far as I can see, human crash on Mars is an immediate fail. Which is especially important now, that we realize there probably are habitats on Mars for present day life, not just past life.
That includes the warm seasonal flows discovered to exist even in equatorial regions last year - almost certainly flowing water or salty water, no alternative plausible explanation been published for them - surprising though that is. They form on sun facing slopes, in the spring through to autumn, get longer as it gets warmer, far too warm for dry ice, and wrong season for wind effects and no correlation with wind. Not been totally proved yet but it's almost impossible to imagine any other explanation working.
Locations of Warm Seasonal Flows shown with black stars, some of them in the equatorial regions of Mars. These are believed to be signs of water flowing, due to the temperature range at which they form and location (not to be confused with the dry gulleys, which are a CO2 phenomenon). This is one of the most promising habitats for life on Mars, though there are other possibilities as well. See Water seems to flow freely on Mars (Nature article).
Then the DLR experiments showing that lichens and cyanobacteria can survive and metabolize in the Mars like environment using just the night time humidity of the air, even when exposed to the UV in partially shaded locations.
Then also the deliquescing salts possible habitat discovered by Phoenix - again not proved, but seems very likely, that in some places right mixtures of salts, that you get thin layers a few mms thick of liquid below the surface of the soil, that in some cases, life could inhabit. Plus solid state greenhouse effect could melt ice near the Martian geysers (though probably dry ice phenomenon, still could be melted ice there as well).
So, there is plenty to contaminate. And the global dust storms able to take hardy spores imbedded in a grain of dust anywhere on Mars, protected also from UV by the iron oxides in the dust.
Much of this is new research in just the last few years, especially the equatorial warm seasonal flows and the DLR results.
INESTIMABLE KNOWLEDGE WE MIGHT GAIN FROM MARS
Then there's also the growing realization of how much we could learn from Mars. We know so little about the early stages of evolution. According to one estimate there have been as many major steps of evolution between amino acids and the most primitive living cells we know as there have been between them and us - and we know nothing about how that happened and what those steps were.
Here is a video animation of transcription and translation all the way from DNA through RNA to Haemoglobin (in this example), shows how complex even the simplest cells we know are - a million chemicals in a complex dance. They couldn't have arisen by chance directly from amino acids. We have no idea how it evolved from the basic amino acids.
This diagram shows the complexity of the DNA as measured using the number of functional non redundant nucleotides.
This is a better measure of the genetic complexity of the organism than the total length of its DNA. Some microbes have more DNA than a human being - much of that used for other purposes rather than for genetic coding, the so called C Value Enigma. Measuring it this way deals with that issue.
Notice that the prokaryotes are well over half way between the amino acids and ourselves.
And Mars had an ocean early on and could tell us much about this because unlike Earth, without continental drift, it almost certainly has deposits from those times, that are in pristine condition pretty much. But not near the surface now, because of cosmic radiation, at least the best deposits, probably a few meters down say 10 meters below surface and hard to find, though some may be more recently exposed again.
Same also for present day life, the habitats are rare and hard to study, unless there is life almost everywhere on Mars as in the DLR idea - if so we might find it early on - but if not -then it might take decades.
So - we need to give ourselves time to search for this properly.
And the instruments we use are sensitive to just a single amino acid in a gram of soil, say, or able to detect a single DNA molecule. They'd be hugely confused by contamination by Earth life.
Raman spectrometer able to do highly sensitive non destructive analysis able to detect molecular structure -one of the Exomars instruments
Field testing of the Exomars Raman spectrometerThese instruments are so sensitive they'd be hugely confused by any contamination of Mars by Earth life and give ambiguous results.
And - Robert Zubrin argued that we'd easily be able to separate out Earth life contamination from Mars life but that's not true.
First of all, of course you'd not be able to detect life on Mars any more by simple detection of chirality or biosignatures because that wouldn't distinguish Mars from Earth life, so would set back our understanding of Mars tremendously, make it vastly more complex.
Then, especially for the archaea, then many entire phyla of archaea are simply unknown. This is the problem of microbial dark matter
We know they exist, through indirect evidence, but haven''t e.g. DNA sequenced them and can't cultivate them and don't know anything about them, how they live, what they do etc. And most microbes have not been DNA sequenced even of the well studied ones.
see How Many Microbes Are Hiding Among Us?, and Bringing Microbial Dark Matter Into the Light
WHAT WE CAN DO INSTEAD
Well - we don't need to give up on the whole idea. It's landing humans on the surface that's the big issue.
But - we can have humans living in orbit around Mars - no problem so long as really careful. E..g. wouldn't use aerobraking.
But you can get into a highly elliptical Mars capture orbit - very useful for colonies and for studying the planet - for less delta v than the surface of the Moon. It's a sun precessing Molniya orbit, comes in close over the surface of Mars twice a day, on sunny side, on opposite sides of Mars. A spectacular orbit to live in with Mars continually changing size in the sky and a close fly-by twice a day.
See: HERRO mission to mars using telerobotic surface exploration from orbit
And gives control of robots on the surface with near real time tele-presence on opposite sides of Mars every day. With that, you could drive e.g. Curiosity at tens of kilometers per hour over the surface. Rapidly explore large areas of Mars.
.
I'd do it using all the same technology as for Mars surface - making fuel for your vehicles on the surface from the atmosphere + hydrogen feed stock - and thin film solar panels for lots of power for low amounts of weight lifted from Earth - all that stuff - but with the astronauts operating them from orbit.
And use the ideas for human habitas in orbit. Safer anyway - humans don't need to do the dangerous descent to Mars - and it's just the rovers on the surface that do that. And they can explore areas on Mars that would be far too dangerous for a human in a spacesuit. And - admittedly telepresence so far is not quite as agile and mobile as humans on the surface - but neither are spacesuits - and not clear at all that spacesuits do better than telerobots.
Even a few years back, the HERRO mission study came up with the conclusion that humans in orbit doing science by telepresence could do as much science as three similar missions on the surface, for a lower cost, less danger to humans - and of course - much reduced risk of contaminating Mars.
The 2013 Telerobotics Symposium explored ways of studying Mars by telerobotics.
NEED FOR PRECURSOR MISSION E.G. TO L2 FAR SIDE OF MOON
But I don't think it's safe to do an interplanetary mission at all right now. We should do a precursor mission to far side of the Moon. And not just a few days fly by. Instead - send astronauts to the L2 position for several years - WITH NO RESUPPLY FROM THE EARTH - and see if they can last out. If not, then we shouldn't do inteprlanetary missions until we sort out the problems making it unsafe for humans to spend several years at a time in L2.
And if it works, then it means we could have continual human presence at L2 for far lower cost than the ISS - it's all the supply missions to he ISS and need to change the crew every few months that make it so expensive to maintain.
The Moon also is of immense interest to study - to scientists at least. Those who don't find the Moon interesting because it's "already been done" would find Mars just as uninteresting a few years after it has "been done".
After a several years long precursoor to L2 - and lots for them to do - exploring far side of Moon + poles via telepresence - and building long wave radio telescopes on the far side - and searching for traces of meteorites from early Earth on the lunar surface and exploring caves and geology of the Moon - and testing the telerobotics needed to make all that possible - it would be a really interesting mission for the astronauts involved.
It's like this NASA concept NASA Eyes Plan for Deep-Space Outpost Near the Moon
This shows how astronauts would control rovers on the surface of the Moon by telerobotics
Robotic roll-out of an antenna — part of a low-frequency array of radio antennas to observe the first stars in the early universe.
While doing this, they'd also be testing artificial gravity + whatever else they use to mitigate the effects of cosmic radiation. Would be a really interesting mission for those who are interested in such things, and those who aren't - I think would in practise soon get totally bored by a mission to Mars anyway. It would be a bit like a mission to Antarctica - interesting to start with - but if you haven't got a lot of scientific interest or some other reason to be there - then you'd soon get tired of the cold, and the long nights.
So after several years of that, once we are sure we can reliabley send a spacecraft awa from Earth for years at a time sfely - then could send humans to Mars orbit.
But not right away. I think thats' unwise and unsafe. And to the surface - even more so - that's making an irreversible decision to contaminate Mars - and the colonists simply don't have legal or moral right to do that for the rest of us.
COLLECTIVE SENSE ORGANS FOR HUMANKIND ON MARS
This idea that perhaps we shouldn't send humans to the surface of Mars because we'd contaminate it with Earth life is not much mentioned in the news. Out of dozens of news stories about ideas for human missions to Mars, perhaps only one or two will ever even mention it as an issue.
But it's frequently mentioned in the academic literature on spaceflight, with many publications debating the issue, and several planetary protection workshops on human missions to Mars. It's just that their deliberations rarely get into the news.
Here is a quote from "When Bioshperes Collide":
"One of the most reliable ways to reduce the risk of forward contamination during visits to extraterrestrial bodies is to make those visits only with robotic spacecraft. Sending a person to Mars would be, for some observers, more exciting. But in the view of much of the space science community, robotic missions are the way to accomplish the maximum amount of scientific inquiry since valuable fuel and shipboard power do not have to be expended in transporting and operating the equipment to keep a human crew alive and healthy. And very important to planetary protection goals, robotic craft can be thoroughly sterilized, while humans cannot. Such a difference can be critical in protecting sensitive targets, such as the special regions of Mars, from forward contamination.
Perhaps a change in the public's perspective as to just what today's robotic missions really are would be helpful in deciding what types of missions are important to implement. In the opinion of Terence Johnson, who has played a major role in many of NASA's robotic missions, including serving as the project scientist for the Galileo mission and the planned Europa Orbiter mission, the term "robotic exploration" misses the point. NASA is actually conducting human exploration on these projects. The mission crews that sit in the control panel at JPL, "as well as everyone else who can log on to the Internet" can observe in near real-time what is going on. The spacecraft instruments, in other words, are becoming more like collective sense organs for humankind. Thus, according to Johnson, when NASA conducts it's so-called robotic missions, people all around the world are really "all standing on the bridge of Starship Enterprise". The question must thus be asked, when, if ever, is it necessary for the good of humankind to send people rather than increasingly sophisticated robots to explore other worlds"
CARL SAGAN REFLECTIONS
"The Earth is the only world known, so far, to harbor life. There is nowhere else, at least in the near future, to which our species could migrate. Visit, yes. Settle, not yet. Like it or not, for the moment, the Earth is where we make our stand."
WANT TO EXPLORE THIS FURTHER?
I've just copied this over to my Science20 column, thought it gave an interestingly different slant on it all, with link back to this discussion at the end:
How feasible is Elon Musk's idea to establish a colony on Mars in the 2020s?
Much more about all this on my Science20 column, see
Where Should we Send our Rovers to Mars to Unravel Mystery of Origin of First Living Cells?
Our Spacecraft Could Look Straight At an Extraterrestrial Microbe - And Not See a Thing!
Rhythms From Martian Sands - What Did Our Viking Landers Find in 1976? Astonishingly, We Don't Know
To Terraform Mars with Present Technology - Far into Realms of Magical Thinking - Opinion Piece
Trouble With Terraforming Mars
"Ten Reasons Not To Live On Mars, Great Place To Explore" - On The Space Show
Ten Reasons NOT To Live On Mars - Great Place To Explore
UPDATE
I now have three full length kindle books, exploring this further, recommending strongly we go to the Moon first, and looking at the planetary protection issues in more detail:
"The Tibetan people’s deepest concern is the threat to the survival of their culture under the prevailing political dispensation, which has carved Tibet into several administrative units with the western half designated as the “Tibet Autonomous Region”, and the areas of eastern half designated variously as “Tibetan Autonomous Prefectures” and “Tibetan Autonomous Counties”, and merged with neighboring Chinese provinces.
The word “Autonomous” applied liberally to the Tibetan areas is nothing more than a cruel joke on the people, for whom all decisions are made in Chinese national and provincial capitals, and enforced with Stalinist brutality.
In the case of the “Tibet Autonomous Region”, decisions are made from Beijing. Similarly, in the case of Tibetan areas in the east, decisions are made from the capitals of the Chinese provinces into which they are merged.
To address this problem, His Holiness asks for the reunification of all Tibetan areas as a single Tibetan administrative entity, enjoying real autonomy, or local self-rule, within the political framework of the People’s Republic of China.
His offer for Tibet to remain within “the political framwork of the People’s Republic of China” is indeed a huge concession and aimed at addressing Beijing’s worst fear, which is the prospect of instability in Tibet and its eventual separation from China. Beijing remains firmly convinced that any attempt to loosen the leash on Tibet would result in a cry for independence.
His Holiness said that if Beijing were to accept his demand for Tibet, he would use his moral authority among the Tibetan people to give up their demand for independence."
"The Memorandum proposes that the local government of the autonomous region should have the competency to regulate the residence, settlement and employment or economic activities of persons who wish to move to Tibetan areas from elsewhere. This is a common feature of autonomy and is certainly not without precedent in the PRC.
A number of countries have instituted systems or adopted laws to protect vulnerable regions or indigenous and minority peoples from excessive immigration from other parts of the country. The Memorandum explicitly states that it is not suggesting the expulsion of non-Tibetans who have lived in Tibetan areas for years. "
Russian idea for a Venus cloud colony in 1971 - original article (in Russian) - anddiscussion.
I've got an article about all this here: Trouble With Terraforming Mars - which also talks about the Venus ideas as well.Update Answer
…Precisely because Mars is an environment of great potential biological interest, it is possible that on Mars there are pathogens, organisms which, if transported to the terrestrial environment, might do enormous biological damage - a Martian plague, the twist in the plot of H. G. Wells' War of the Worlds, but in reverse. This is an extremely grave point. On the one hand, we can argue that Martian organisms cannot cause any serious problems to terrestrial organisms, because there has been no biological contact for 4.5 billion years between Martian and terrestrial organisms. On the other hand, we can argue equally well that terrestrial organisms have evolved no defenses against potential Martian pathogens, precisely because there has been no such contact for 4.5 billion years. The chance of such an infection may be very small, but the hazards, if it occurs, are certainly very high.
“ If we wish on Earth to examine samples of Martian soil for microbes, we must, of course, not sterilize the samples beforehand. The point of the expedition is to bring them back alive. But what then? Might Martian microorganisms returned to Earth pose a public health hazard? The Martians of H. G. Wells and Orson Welles, preoccupied with the suppression of Bournemouth and Jersey City, never noticed until too late that their immunological defenses were unavailing against the microbes of Earth. Is the converse possible? This is a serious and difficult issue. There may be no micromartians. If they exist, perhaps we can eat a kilogram of them with no ill effects. But we are not sure, and the stakes are high. If we wish to return unsterilized Martian samples to Earth, we must have a containment procedure that is stupefyingly reliable. There are nations that develop and stockpile bacteriological weapons. They seem to have an occasional accident, but they have not yet, so far as I know, produced global pandemics. Perhaps Martian samples can be safely returned to Earth. But I would want to be very sure before considering a returned-sample mission.”
"States Parties to the Treaty shall pursue studies of outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, and conduct exploration of them so as to avoid their harmful contamination and also adverse changes in the environment of the Earth resulting from the introduction of extraterrestrial matter and, where necessary, shall adopt appropriate measures for this purpose. If a State Party to the Treaty has reason to believe that an
activity or experiment planned by it or its nationals in outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, would cause potentially harmful interference with activities of other States Parties in the peaceful exploration and use of outer space, including the Moon and other celestial bodies, it shall undertake appropriate international consultations before proceeding with any such activity or experiment"
Previous missions to Mars, such as the Pathfinder mission and the two MER rovers, have carried microorganisms to the Martian surface where they remain dormant as long as shielded from ultraviolet radiation. To reverse this contamination already present on Mars, it would be necessary to collect all metal objects within which microbes could remain viable. Furthermore, the soil at crash sites and in the vicinity of landers that had come into contact with the spacecraft would have to be thrown up into the atmosphere where it would be exposed to sterilizing ultraviolet radiation. A similar approach can be used to reverse the contamination from human bases.[102]So anyway reasonably hopeful so far that the introduced life has remained confined to the spacecraft, though can't be certain.
Tibet before the Chinese occupation did have many problems. But it was also a society that was in the process of change.
It can be misleading to call it a feudal society because it was different fro...
(more)Tibet before the Chinese occupation did have many problems. But it was also a society that was in the process of change.
It can be misleading to call it a feudal society because it was different from feudalism in China or the West. In many ways it was more like a society with many social classes than a feudal society. For one thing, much of the population of Tibet was nomadic. You can’t really have a feudal society of nomads.
Also many peasants owned their own land. There was no famine. Tibet experienced its first famine after the Chinese occupation.
The wikipedia article Serfdom in Tibet controversy may help. Also this article here is well worth a read: China's claim that "Old Tibet" was a feudal serfdom is fiction
Yes, there was judicial amputation in Tibet in the nineteenth century. However, this had already ceased before the Chinese occupation.
The other side of this, which the Chinese don’t mention, is that Tibet banned capital punishment in 1915, well before most other countries. To this day capital punishment is still permitted in several countries world wide including the US, and for that matter China as well. So in some ways Tibet was even ahead of its times.
I think the main criticism others have of the policies of the Chinese government in Tibet is that Tibet needs to find its own path, just as Bhutan did. The Chinese had and still have little understanding of the Tibetan situation, and Tibetan culture and beliefs. This is not a good basis for administering Tibet because they frequently try to impose changes on Tibet based on their experiences in China. For instance forcefully housing nomads.
Bhutan is an example of a Tibetan style Buddhist country that has found its own direction. It has a low GDP so you can point to that and say that its policies aren't working - but it is noted because of its policy of Gross national happiness which seems to work for this country at least, see this map of Subjective Well Being. Notice how Bhutan is a dark red blob to the right of India, one of the happiest countries in the world, scores higher than the UK, and much higher than China or Tibet, though its GDP is very low.
Tibet too might find its own way of developing if given the autonomy to direct its development. The Dalai Lama is interested in communism, and finds quite a few points of contact between communism and Buddhism. See 'I'm a Marxist,' Dalai Lama tells Chinese students and Marxism and religion
Tibet need not be a democracy such as Bhutan. Who can say, Tibet might even become a Buddhist communist country. It would be interesting to see how that developed given some of the connections between Buddhism and Marxism.
But it needs to find its own path.
Also - the analogy that is often made between the Dalai Lama and the Pope is misleading - there is no spiritual head of Buddhism, because the Buddha himself , in the speech he made soon before he died explicitly warned his followers not to take anyone else as a spiritual leader after him. He said they should take the teachings as their guide instead.
So though there are many Buddhist teachers, the student chooses his teacher, and the Dalai Lama is only a teacher in this sense for his own personal students. He is not even a religious head of his own particular school of Tibetan Buddhism in this sense. He is often asked why he doesn’t tell Tibetans in Tibet what to do. His questioners I think expect him to issue proclamations on Tibetan Buddhism like a Pope does on Catholicism. But that is something that no Buddhist spiritual teacher can do, at least if they follow the main sutra traditions based on the very extensive teachings of the Buddha in the Buddhist canon. If they were to try they’d be rightly ignored. So he rightly refuses all such requests. There would be no point anyway as he would just be ignored if he attempted something like that. It’s just not how Buddhists think about spiritual teachers, even one as inspiring as the Dalai Lama.
He was a political leader, until he resigned that role, which he did recently. But he was never a religious leader in this sense, as there are no religious leaders in this sense in Buddhism.
So, the structure of catholic Christianity is very different from that of any of the Buddhist traditions, and comparisons like this are likely to lead you astray. He was not therefore a theocratic leader in the Christian sense. Indeed if you mean theocratic in the sense of ruling in the name of a god - he isn’t a god and isn’t thought of as the mouthpiece of a god either.
When they talk about him as a “god king” they mean that they think of him as an instance of Chenrezig, the so called “deity of compassion”. But this is not a god in the Western sense at all. Because anyone who shows compassion is thought of as Chenrezig. If you do something compassionate, something selfless that helps others, in that moment you will be Chenrezig. That’s basically what the word means.
The Tibetan idea of Chenrezig as you see it in paintings of Tankas etc is much more like a poem or beautiful image, a way of giving rise to an inspiration of compassion. It’s done like that because when you really enter into compassionate activity - it’s like somethign other than yourself, an inspiration far wider than yourself. It’s not some external being, it’s a quality and capability we all have in ourselves, or at least that’s how Buddhists think of it. But it is so much vaster than the narrow way we normally think of our lives, and that’s what they try to convey in these images, which is why compassion is often shown as a deity. But it’s not in the Western sense. It’s just a way of showing the inspiration of pure compassion, in human form.
So - no-one can rule “in the name of Chenrezig” unless you just mean, be a compassionate ruler. It’s not like an external being you could claim to have special communication with, to talk to, or to know what it is he wants, or anything like that. So in short it has pretty much none of the connotations of Western theocracy and I think calling him a “god king” though it may be literally correct, is very misleading.
So - I’d actually say he never was theocratic in the sense that e.g. the Pope is.
As for political power, he has given up all his political powers now, resigned from the position. He did that a few years back. If he wanted power, why would he do that? No sign at all that he is someone who is personally interested in political power or controlling people.